羅賓遜全球物流 (CHRW) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the C.H. Robinson third-quarter 2025 conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Wednesday, October 29, 2025.

    女士們、先生們,下午好,歡迎參加 C.H. Robinson 2025 年第三季電話會議。(操作員說明)提醒:本次會議正在錄音,2025 年 10 月 29 日,星期三。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Chuck Ives, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

    現在我將把會議交給投資者關係高級總監查克·艾夫斯。

  • Chuck Ives - Director, Investor Relations

    Chuck Ives - Director, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. On the call with me today is Dave Bozeman, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Castagnetto, our President of North American Surface Transportation; Arun Rajan, our Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer; and Damon Lee, our Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝大家,大家下午好。今天和我一起通話的有:我們的總裁兼首席執行官戴夫·博茲曼;我們的北美地面運輸總裁邁克爾·卡斯塔涅托;我們的首席戰略和創新官阿倫·拉詹;以及我們的首席財務官達蒙·李。

  • I'd like to remind you that our remarks today contain forward-looking statements. Slide 2 in today's presentation list factors that could cause our actual results to differ from management's expectations. Our earnings presentation slides are supplemental to our earnings release and can be found in the Investors section of our website at investor.chrobinson.com. Today's remarks also contain certain non-GAAP measures, and reconciliations of those measures to GAAP measures are included in the presentation.

    我想提醒各位,我們今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述。今天簡報中的第 2 張投影片列出了可能導致我們的實際結果與管理層預期不同的因素。我們的獲利報告簡報是對獲利報告的補充,可在我們網站 investor.chrobinson.com 的「投資者關係」欄位中找到。今天的發言中也包含一些非GAAP財務指標,這些指標與GAAP財務指標的調節表已包含在簡報中。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

    接下來,我會把電話交給戴夫。

  • David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Chuck. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I've met with many investors over the past year. And as you know, we don't normally start our discussions or spend a lot of time on the macroenvironment due to the exciting lean AI transformation that is occurring at Robinson.

    謝謝你,查克。各位下午好,感謝各位今天參加我們的節目。在過去一年裡,我與許多投資者會面。如您所知,由於 Robinson 正在進行令人興奮的精益人工智慧轉型,我們通常不會從宏觀環境入手進行討論,也不會花太多時間討論宏觀環境。

  • After a really strong third-quarter performance that I and the team are really pleased with, I do want to start off, however, by sharing a little bit of context around the macro conditions that we're not immune to and that I'm proud of our employees for navigating with discipline and ingenuity.

    第三季業績表現強勁,我和我的團隊都對此非常滿意。不過,我想先談談我們無法置身事外的宏觀環境,我為我們的員工能夠以自律和創造力應對這些環境而感到自豪。

  • The third quarter of 2025 was marked by a continued soft freight environment, with the cash freight shipment index declining year over year for the 12th consecutive quarter. The cash index reading was the lowest Q3 reading since the financial crisis of 2009. And despite a fairly steady exit of trucking capacity over the past three years, truckload spot rates continue to bounce along the bottom due to low demand.

    2025 年第三季貨運環境持續疲軟,現金貨運指數連續第 12 季年減。現金指數讀數是自2009年金融危機以來第三季的最低讀數。儘管過去三年卡車運輸能力持續下降,但由於需求低迷,整車運輸現貨價格仍在低點波動。

  • International freight has been impacted by global trade policies, which caused previous front loading, a dislocation of shipments, and a softer-than-normal peak season. Combined with excess vessel capacity, this caused ocean rates to decline substantially versus a year ago, consistent with the expectations that we laid out at our Investor Day in December.

    國際貨運受到全球貿易政策的影響,導致先前的貨物提前裝運、貨物運輸錯位以及旺季貨運量低於正常水準。再加上船舶運力過剩,導致海運運費與一年前相比大幅下降,這與我們去年 12 月投資者日上提出的預期一致。

  • Ocean rates also declined substantially during Q3, causing our adjusted gross profit per ocean shipment to decline 27% from June to September. So the setup for global transportation companies was certainly unfavorable in Q3.

    第三季海運運費也大幅下降,導致我們每批海運貨物的調整後毛利從 6 月到 9 月下降了 27%。因此,第三季全球運輸公司的情況肯定是不有利的。

  • We are not immune to the market, and the volume and rate dynamics in Global Forwarding are certainly headwinds we are facing. But this is a new C.H. Robinson, and we don't use the macroenvironment as an excuse. We are fundamentally different company than we were two years ago, illustrated by the company's consistent outperformance versus the market.

    我們並非不受市場影響,全球貨運的交易量和費率動態無疑是我們面臨的不利因素。但這是全新的 C.H. Robinson,我們不會以宏觀環境為藉口。與兩年前相比,我們已發生了根本性的變化,公司持續優於市場的表現就證明了這一點。

  • But make no mistake, this consistent outperformance does not just happen, and it's not easy for others to replicate. We're changing the culture of the company, which is really hard work. We've shifted to a culture of solving problems with speed, and the implementation of a lean operating model has contributed greatly to this change. A lean operating model is about building the habit of getting better every day through innovation, selling fast, and discovery.

    但毋庸置疑,這種持續優異的表現並非偶然,其他人也很難複製。我們正在改變公司的文化,這真的是一項艱鉅的工作。我們已經轉變為一種快速解決問題的文化,而精實營運模式的實施極大地促進了這一轉變。精實營運模式的核心在於透過創新、快速銷售和探索,養成每天進步的習慣。

  • We certainly encounter challenges along the way, but how we solve them now is different. With the discipline and tools that we've armed our people with, we solved those challenges with a lean mindset, with their experimentation, and with urgency. The Robinson operating model helps us focus on what matters most to eliminate waste and deliver more value to our customers faster.

    我們一路走來當然會遇到挑戰,但我們現在解決這些挑戰的方式有所不同。憑藉我們賦予員工的紀律和工具,我們以精實思維、實驗精神和緊迫感解決了這些挑戰。羅賓遜的營運模式幫助我們專注於最重要的事情,從而消除浪費,更快為客戶創造更多價值。

  • Our people have embraced our lean operating model and the discipline needed to generate higher highs and higher lows across market cycles. While we've made considerable progress, we are still in the early innings of our lean transformation, and a significant runway exists as we continue to deepen the lean mindset and methods across the organization.

    我們的員工已經接受了我們精實的營運模式以及在市場週期中創造更高高峰和更高低谷所需的紀律。雖然我們已經取得了相當大的進展,但我們的精實轉型仍處於初期階段,隨著我們繼續在整個組織內深化精實思維和方法,還有很大的發展空間。

  • Shifting to our Q3 results that provide another proof point of the disciplined execution of our strategy. In NAST, we grew our combined truckload and LTL volume by approximately 3% year over year and demonstrably grew market share versus a 7.2% decline in the cash freight shipment index. This was accomplished while expanding gross margins for the eighth consecutive quarter and further increasing productivity and operating leverage while growing volume. This resulted in a 39% adjusted operating margin in NAST and further progress towards our 40% mid-cycle adjusted operating margin target for NAST.

    接下來來看我們第三季的業績,這再次證明了我們策略的嚴格執行。在 NAST 中,我們的整車和零擔貨運量年增約 3%,且市佔率明顯增長,而現金貨運量指數則下降了 7.2%。在此基礎上,公司連續第八個季度擴大了毛利率,並在銷售成長的同時進一步提高了生產力和營運槓桿。這使得 NAST 的調整後營業利潤率為 39%,並進一步朝著 NAST 40% 的中期調整後營業利潤率目標邁進。

  • In Global Forwarding, we expanded gross margins by 380 basis points year over year through improved revenue management discipline. We also continue to improve our productivity, which has now increased by more than 55% in Global Forwarding since the end of 2022. This improvement in our operating leverage enabled us to achieve our 30% mid-cycle adjusted operating margin target in Q3 despite the difficult market conditions.

    在全球貨運業務中,我們透過改善收入管理紀律,使毛利率年增了 380 個基點。我們也不斷提高生產效率,自 2022 年底以來,全球貨運的生產效率已提高了 55% 以上。儘管市場環境艱難,但由於經營槓桿的改善,我們得以在第三季實現 30% 的周期中期調整後營業利潤率目標。

  • With seven consecutive quarters of consistent outperformance through the disciplined execution of the strategy that we shared at our 2024 Investor Day, there is no doubt in our minds that we are on the right path to deliver sustainable outperformance. We are not waiting for a market recovery to improve our financial results, and the strategies that our team is executing are built to be effective in any market environment. With our strong balance sheet and cash flow generation, we are comfortable operating in an environment that is lower for longer.

    透過嚴格執行我們在 2024 年投資者日上分享的策略,我們連續七個季度取得了持續優異的業績,我們毫不懷疑我們正走在實現可持續優異業績的正確道路上。我們不會等待市場復甦來改善財務業績,我們團隊正在執行的策略旨在在任何市場環境下都有效。憑藉我們強勁的資產負債表和現金流,我們有能力在較低利率環境持續較長的情況下運作。

  • In today's environment, there is a flight to quality, and that is Robinson. We're also highly confident in our ability to continue delivering exceptional value for our customers and to continue executing on all of our strategic initiatives, including further increasing our operating leverage where the market eventually inflects. Our model with an industry-leading cost to serve is highly scalable, and we expect it will improve further as we harness the evolving power of AI to drive automation across the quote-to-cash life cycle of a load.

    在當今環境下,人們追求的是品質,而羅賓遜正是這樣一家公司。我們對繼續為客戶提供卓越價值的能力以及繼續執行所有戰略舉措的能力也充滿信心,包括在市場最終出現拐點時進一步提高我們的營運槓桿。我們擁有業界領先的服務成本模式,具有高度可擴展性,我們預計隨著我們利用不斷發展的 AI 的力量來推動從報價到收款整個生命週期的自動化,該模式將進一步改進。

  • We're still in the early innings of our lean AI journey, call it third inning in NAST and first inning in Global Forwarding. Lean AI is our unique disciplined approach to AI innovation that transforms supply chains. By combining the principles of lean methodology in our Robinson operating model with the power of AI.

    我們仍處於精益人工智慧之旅的早期階段,可以稱之為 NAST 的第三局,全球轉發的第一局。精實人工智慧是我們獨創的、嚴謹的人工智慧創新方法,它能夠變革供應鏈。透過將羅賓遜營運模式中的精益方法原則與人工智慧的力量相結合。

  • Lean AI is designed to maximize value and minimize waste for better outcomes. It is uniquely enabled by our leading AI technology, our expert logisticians, and our lean operating model that drives continuous improvement. Our fleet of AI agents are not only improving our productivity and operational performance by automating tasks that free up our industry-leading talent to focus on more strategic, higher-value work, but they are also enhancing the service and value we deliver to our customers and contributing to our market share gains.

    精益人工智慧旨在最大限度地提高價值並最大限度地減少浪費,從而獲得更好的結果。我們憑藉領先的人工智慧技術、專業的物流人員和精益營運模式,實現了持續改進,這是獨一無二的。我們的 AI 代理團隊不僅透過自動化任務提高了我們的生產力和營運績效,使我們領先業界的人才能夠專注於更具戰略意義、更高價值的工作,而且還增強了我們為客戶提供的服務和價值,並為我們市場份額的成長做出了貢獻。

  • We are pioneering new ways to eliminate tasks, augment our capabilities, and supercharge our talented people with industry-leading technology that materially elevates the customer and carrier experience. And our lean operating model enables us to do this in a disciplined and cost-effective way that delivers the most value to all our stakeholders. Our agentic supply chain solutions are enabling a new era of logistics, and we're leading the way for customers and carriers.

    我們正在開創新的方法來消除任務、增強我們的能力,並透過業界領先的技術極大地激發我們優秀人才的潛能,從而顯著提升客戶和營運商的體驗。我們精實的營運模式使我們能夠以嚴謹且經濟高效的方式做到這一點,從而為所有利害關係人創造最大價值。我們自主研發的供應鏈解決方案正在開啟物流的新時代,我們正引領客戶和承運商的發展方向。

  • Overall, the progress on our strategic initiatives remains on track. The consistent disciplined execution of our Lean AI strategy, supported by the Robinson operating model, makes us stronger. And we continue to believe that the next two years for C.H. Robinson and our stakeholders will be more exciting than the last two years.

    整體而言,我們的策略舉措進展順利。我們精益人工智慧策略的持續嚴格執行,加上羅賓遜營運模式的支持,使我們變得更加強大。我們仍然相信,未來兩年對於 C.H. Robinson 和我們的利害關係人來說,將比過去兩年更加令人振奮。

  • I'll turn it over to Michael now to provide more details on our NAST results.

    現在我將把發言權交給邁克爾,讓他詳細介紹我們的 NAST 結果。

  • Michael Castagnetto - President of NAST

    Michael Castagnetto - President of NAST

  • Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. Our Q3 NAST results demonstrate the strength of our execution, the expertise and discipline of our team, and the resilience of the Robinson operating model in a difficult freight environment. The team once again delivered market share growth in both truckload and LTL in Q3. Additionally, by strategically optimizing our volume, we not only drove year over year, but also sequential expansion in both our gross and operating profit margin.

    謝謝你,戴夫,大家下午好。我們第三季 NAST 業績證明了我們強大的執行力、團隊的專業知識和紀律性,以及 Robinson 營運模式在艱難的貨運環境中的韌性。第三季度,該團隊在整車運輸和零擔運輸領域再次實現了市場份額成長。此外,透過策略性地優化銷量,我們不僅實現了毛利率和營業利潤率的逐年增長,而且實現了環比增長。

  • For more context, the Cass Freight Shipment Index declined on a year-over-year basis for the 12th consecutive quarter in Q3 and was down 7.2%. In contrast, our combined truckload and LTL volume delivered positive growth of approximately 3% year over year, outperforming the Cass Freight Shipment Index for the 10th consecutive quarter.

    更多背景資訊顯示,卡斯貨運量指數在第三季連續第 12 季同比下降,降幅達 7.2%。相較之下,我們的整車和零擔貨運量合計年增約 3%,連續第十個季度跑贏 Cass 貨運指數。

  • Truckload volume rose approximately 3% year over year and LTL volume increased approximately 2.5% year over year. We continue to build strong momentum across key verticals that we highlighted as growth areas at our Investor Day, which include retail, energy, automotive, and healthcare.

    整車貨運量年增約 3%,零擔貨運量較去年同期成長約 2.5%。我們在投資者日上重點強調的幾個成長領域(包括零售、能源、汽車和醫療保健)持續保持強勁的成長勢頭。

  • During the quarter, we delivered year-over-year volume growth in each of these verticals in addition to growth in cross-border and short-haul volume and with small- and medium-sized customers. These results reflect the execution of our strategic focus and our expanded capabilities that directly support these segments and evolving customer needs.

    本季度,我們在所有這些垂直領域都實現了同比增長,此外,跨境和短途運輸量以及中小客戶數量也有所增長。這些成果反映了我們策略重點的執行情況以及我們不斷擴展的能力,這些能力直接支持這些細分市場和不斷變化的客戶需求。

  • We introduced several value-added solutions in recent months, including our new drop trailer asset management system, cross-border freight consolidation, as well as our AI-driven Always-on Logistics Planner. These solutions are designed to simplify complexity, reduce costs, and deliver consistent, high-quality service across the supply chain.

    近幾個月來,我們推出了多項加值解決方案,包括我們新的甩掛車資產管理系統、跨境貨運整合以及人工智慧驅動的全天候物流規劃器。這些解決方案旨在簡化複雜性、降低成本,並在整個供應鏈中提供一致的高品質服務。

  • In our over $3 billion LTL business, we delivered year-over-year volume growth for the seventh consecutive quarter, and we continue to outperform the broader LTL market through our deep, long-standing relationships with LTL carriers and our proven ability to manage service variability among the carriers to deliver a consistently high level of service to our customers. They continue to turn to us to simplify the complexities of LTL freight and to reduce their costs.

    在我們超過 30 億美元的零擔運輸業務中,我們連續第七個季度實現了同比增長,並且憑藉我們與零擔運輸承運商之間深厚、長期的合作關係以及我們管理承運商之間服務差異的成熟能力,我們繼續超越更廣泛的零擔運輸市場,為客戶提供始終如一的高水平服務。他們不斷尋求我們的幫助,以簡化零擔貨運的複雜性並降低成本。

  • Our ability to consistently provide the best combination of price and service to our LTL customers continues to result in more freight for us. Our team of freight experts once again responded to a challenging freight environment, supported by a resilient operating model and industry-leading tools. Through disciplined pricing strategies and a sustained cost of higher advantage we delivered yield improvements that translated into a 70-basis-point year-over-year improvement in NAST gross margin and a 20-basis-point sequential increase.

    我們能夠持續為零擔貨運客戶提供最佳的價格和服務組合,這為我們帶來了更多的貨運量。在穩健的營運模式和業界領先的工具的支持下,我們的貨運專家團隊再次應對了充滿挑戰的貨運環境。透過嚴格的定價策略和持續的高成本優勢,我們實現了收益的提升,使 NAST 毛利率比去年同期提高了 70 個基點,環比提高了 20 個基點。

  • Our team continues to actively assess the market and optimize for the most effective combination of volume and margin to enhance earnings performance. With strategic agility built into our model, we have the flexibility to pivot toward volume or margin as market dynamics evolve, making disciplined, data-driven adjustments in real time, all while staying focused on long-term value creation.

    我們的團隊將繼續積極評估市場,並優化銷售和利潤率的最佳組合,以提高獲利能力。我們的模式中融入了策略敏捷性,隨著市場動態的變化,我們可以靈活地轉向追求銷售或利潤,即時進行有紀律的、數據驅動的調整,同時始終專注於創造長期價值。

  • We're also making smarter use of our proprietary digital capabilities and getting actionable data and AI-powered tools into the hands of our freight experts faster, enabling them to make better decisions and to capture the optimal freight for us. These digital capabilities have enabled us to continue delivering double-digit productivity increases in NAST in 2025.

    我們也在更聰明地利用我們專有的數位能力,更快地將可操作的數據和人工智慧工具交付給我們的貨運專家,使他們能夠做出更好的決策,並為我們獲得最佳的貨運服務。這些數位化能力使我們能夠在 2025 年繼續實現 NAST 兩位數的生產力成長。

  • Since the end of 2022, we have delivered a more than 40% increase in shipments per person per day, and this is measured across the entirety of our NAST organization rather than a subset of employees. This enhanced efficiency is not only lowering our industry-leading cost to serve, but is also elevating the customer experience by enabling faster, more reliable service.

    自 2022 年底以來,我們每人每天的出貨量增加了 40% 以上,這是在整個 NAST 組織中衡量的,而不是在部分員工中衡量的。這種效率的提升不僅降低了我們領先業界的服務成本,而且還透過提供更快、更可靠的服務來提升客戶體驗。

  • And while shifts in market dynamics and regulatory changes continue to occur, we remain confident in the strength and reliability of our carrier network. Our diversified carrier base and thorough vetting give us a high degree of comfort in our ability to navigate these changes without disruption and to maintain a high level of service quality for our customers.

    儘管市場動態和監管變化不斷發生,但我們對營運商網路的實力和可靠性仍然充滿信心。我們多元化的承運商基礎和嚴格的審核流程,使我們有信心在不造成任何干擾的情況下應對這些變化,並為客戶提供高品質的服務。

  • Looking ahead to Q4, it is typically a seasonally weaker quarter compared to Q3. The 10-year average of the Cass Freight Shipment Index, excluding the pandemic-impacted year of 2020, reflects a 3.5% sequential volume decline from Q3 to Q4.

    展望第四季度,通常來說,第四季度是季節性疲軟的季度,不如第三季度。卡斯貨運量指數的 10 年平均值(不包括受疫情影響的 2020 年)反映出,從第三季到第四季,貨運量較上季下降了 3.5%。

  • Regardless of market conditions, we remain focused on what we can control, and we will continue to deliver industry-leading solutions and flexibility that only a scaled broker can provide to customers and carriers. Our people and their unmatched expertise enable us to deliver exceptional service, greater value, and the team is relentlessly driving improved results.

    無論市場狀況如何,我們始終專注於我們能夠控制的事情,並將繼續為客戶和承運商提供只有規模化的經紀商才能提供的行業領先的解決方案和靈活性。我們的人員及其無與倫比的專業知識使我們能夠提供卓越的服務和更大的價值,團隊也不斷努力提高績效。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Arun to provide an update on the innovation we're delivering to strengthen our customer and carrier experience and improve our gross margin and operating leverage.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給 Arun,讓他介紹我們正在進行的創新,以加強我們的客戶和營運商體驗,並提高我們的毛利率和營運槓桿。

  • Arun Rajan - Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer

    Arun Rajan - Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer

  • Thanks, Michael, and good afternoon, everyone. As Dave mentioned, to better serve our customers and widen our competitive moat, we are continuing to scale several innovations, including our fleet of secure proprietary AI agents across every aspect of the extensive quote-to-cash life cycle of an order and to more modes and customers.

    謝謝你,邁克爾,大家下午好。正如戴夫所提到的,為了更好地服務我們的客戶並擴大我們的競爭優勢,我們正在繼續擴大幾項創新,包括將我們安全的專有人工智慧代理部署到訂單從報價到收款的整個生命週期的各個方面,並擴展到更多模式和客戶。

  • One example is our recently launched Always-on Logistics Planner, a coordinated service model that brings together more than 30 connected agents. Our agentic supply chain solutions automate routine tasks, surface strategic insights, and enables seamless global coordination across every mode and region. This launch is the first step in a broader expansion of Agentic AI across our managed solutions portfolio.

    例如,我們最近推出的「全天候物流規劃器」就是一個協調的服務模式,它將 30 多個連網代理商聚集在一起。我們的智慧供應鏈解決方案可自動執行日常任務,揭示策略洞察,並實現各種模式和區域的無縫全球協調。此次發布是我們在託管解決方案組合中更廣泛地擴展智慧人工智慧的第一步。

  • Our fleet of AI agents is growing fast, and we're building a future where AI agents enable our logistics professionals to orchestrate supply chains with greater predictability, efficiency, and operational excellence. By leveraging and scaling the use of game-changing AI technology, such as Agentic AI to power new capabilities that are backed by our unmatched data and scale, we are continuing to disrupt from within. The advanced reasoning capabilities of Agentic AI enable us to unlock the value trapped and unstructured data, such as phone calls, e-mails, and tribal knowledge due to Agentic AI's ability to understand context and make decisions in real time.

    我們的 AI 代理團隊正在快速成長,我們正在建立一個未來,在這個未來中,AI 代理將使我們的物流專業人員能夠以更高的可預測性、效率和卓越的營運能力來協調供應鏈。透過利用和擴大顛覆性人工智慧技術(例如智慧體人工智慧)的使用,以增強我們無與倫比的數據和規模所支援的新功能,我們正在繼續從內部進行顛覆。智能體人工智慧的高階推理能力使我們能夠釋放被困的非結構化資料(例如電話、電子郵件和部落知識)的價值,因為智能體人工智慧能夠理解上下文並即時做出決策。

  • But it's also important to understand that most transformative technologies and innovations rarely emerge fully formed. They evolved through cycles of experimentation, feedback, and iteration. Along these lines, innovation and pioneering in Agentic AI is not a straight line due to the complex, iterative, and unpredictable nature of the technology and its development.

    但同樣重要的是要明白,大多數變革性技術和創新很少是完全成形的。它們經歷了實驗、回饋和迭代的循環發展演變。從這個角度來看,由於人工智慧技術及其發展的複雜性、迭代性和不可預測性,智能體人工智慧領域的創新和開拓並非一條直線。

  • Unlike linear automation that follows predictable rule-based scripts, Agentic AI operates with a degree of autonomy and unpredictability, making its progress non-linear. The journey is marked by cycles of advancement and retrenchment, shifting challenges, and the continuous need for human-in-the-loop oversight. Our lean AI process of building, learning, and discovering where missteps and the resulting learnings are milestones is not just necessary. It's the best path to success and uncovering what truly works.

    與遵循可預測的基於規則的腳本的線性自動化不同,智能體人工智慧以一定程度的自主性和不可預測性運行,使其進展呈現非線性。這一歷程的特徵是進步與衰退的週期性交替、挑戰的不斷變化,以及對人為幹預監督的持續需求。我們精益的 AI 建構、學習和發現過程,將失誤和由此產生的經驗教訓視為里程碑,這不僅是必要的。這是通往成功和發現真正有效方法的最佳途徑。

  • As Dave mentioned, our lean operating model enables us to develop and implement innovations in a disciplined and cost-effective way that delivers the most value to our stakeholders. Our in-house team of over 450 engineers and data scientists with their rich domain expertise, have been empowered to develop and implement our proprietary AI agents. This enables us to deliver optimized AI solutions at a faster pace and a lower cost. We have not increased our overall tech spending to implement AI, and our only incremental cost of scale AI is the cost of tokens for which the price continues to decline.

    正如戴夫所提到的,我們精益的營運模式使我們能夠以嚴謹且經濟高效的方式開發和實施創新,從而為我們的利害關係人帶來最大價值。我們擁有超過 450 名工程師和資料科學家組成的內部團隊,憑藉其豐富的領域專業知識,我們有能力開發和實施我們專有的 AI 代理。這使我們能夠以更快的速度和更低的成本提供最佳化的AI解決方案。我們並未增加整體技術支出以實施人工智慧,而規模化人工智慧的唯一增量成本是代幣成本,但代幣價格仍在持續下降。

  • As we continue to improve our service with cost-efficient AI task agents that listen, learn, and act all day every day, Agentic AI has the ability to ignite the revolution and empower systems to think, adapt, and act differently, enabling us to deliver fast, accurate, and personalized service at scale and in any market. All of these innovations are reducing the amount of time it takes for us to respond to a quote, for a tendered load to be accepted or for an appointment to be set, thereby providing a superior customer experience. Additionally, the faster speed provided by our AI has enabled us to respond to more quotes and win more business, thereby accelerating our market share growth.

    隨著我們不斷改進服務,利用成本效益高的 AI 任務代理全天候聆聽、學習和行動,Agentic AI 有能力引發革命,並賦予系統不同的思考、適應和行動能力,使我們能夠大規模地在任何市場提供快速、準確和個性化的服務。所有這些創新都縮短了我們對報價的回應時間、接受投標貨物的時間或安排預約的時間,從而提供了更優質的客戶體驗。此外,人工智慧帶來的更快速度使我們能夠回應更多報價並贏得更多業務,從而加速市場份額的成長。

  • The continued advancement of our AI is also powering our dynamic pricing and costing and responding more surgically and faster than ever to dynamic market conditions by performing more frequent price discovery. Along with our operating model rider and our revenue management practices, this is contributing to the gross margin improvements that we're delivering.

    人工智慧的持續進步也為我們的動態定價和成本核算提供了動力,並透過更頻繁的價格發現,比以往任何時候都更精準、更快速地應對動態的市場狀況。結合我們的營運模式和收入管理措施,這有助於我們實現毛利率的提高。

  • Finally, the growing automation across our quote-to-cash life cycle, whether it be in quoting, order entry, low tenders, appointment scheduling or other manual tasks, creates business model scalability. This enables us to decouple headcount growth from volume growth and to create greater operating leverage. Our ability to successfully leverage technology and automation has played a key role in our greater than 40% productivity increase since the end of 2022, and we expect to create further operating leverage as evergreen productivity improvements continue in 2025 and beyond.

    最後,從報價、訂單輸入、低價投標、預約安排或其他人工任務,我們整個報價到收款生命週期中不斷提高的自動化程度,創造了業務模式的可擴展性。這使我們能夠將人員成長與銷售成長脫鉤,並創造更大的營運槓桿。自 2022 年底以來,我們成功利用技術和自動化,實現了超過 40% 的生產力成長,我們預計隨著 2025 年及以後生產力的持續提高,我們將創造更大的營運槓桿。

  • Ultimately, we are focused on three items that are key to our strategy: transforming the customer interior experience to elevate our service offering and drive growth, delivering business model scalability, and driving gross margin and operating margin expansion. Technology continues to evolve, and we have and will continue to disrupt from within to stay at the forefront of that evolution and to further widen our competitive moat.

    最終,我們專注於三項對我們的策略至關重要的事項:改變客戶的內部體驗,以提升我們的服務產品並推動成長;實現業務模式的可擴展性;以及推動毛利率和營業利潤率的擴張。科技不斷發展,我們過去一直在進行內部變革,並將繼續這樣做,以保持在這項變革的前沿地位,並進一步擴大我們的競爭優勢。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Damon for a review of our third-quarter results.

    接下來,我將把電話交給達蒙,讓他回顧我們第三季的表現。

  • Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

    Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Arun, and good afternoon, everyone. In Q3, we continued to execute with discipline and focus, advancing our strategic initiatives in alignment with our North Star of growing operating income. Q3 results demonstrate our sustained strong momentum driven by market share growth, continued optimization of adjusted gross profit or AGP, disciplined cost management, and further productivity gains, all supported by our lean operating model and rapidly advancing AI capabilities.

    謝謝Arun,大家午安。第三季度,我們持續秉持嚴謹專注的態度執行各項策略舉措,朝著實現營業收入成長這一北極星目標穩步前進。第三季業績表明,在市佔率成長、調整後毛利(AGP)持續優化、嚴格的成本管理以及生產力進一步提高的推動下,我們保持了強勁的成長勢頭,所有這些都得益於我們精益的營運模式和快速發展的人工智慧能力。

  • Due to significant year-over-year declines in ocean rates and the February 2025 sale of our Europe Surface Transportation business, our total revenue in AGP declined approximately 11% and 4%, respectively. An 18% decline in Global Forwarding AGP driven primarily by the lower ocean rates was partially offset by a 6% increase in NAST AGP.

    由於海運費率較去年同期大幅下降,以及我們在 2025 年 2 月出售了歐洲陸路運輸業務,我們在 AGP 的總收入分別下降了約 11% 和 4%。全球貨運平均利潤下降 18%,主要原因是海運費率下降,但 NAST 平均利潤成長 6%,部分抵銷了這一降幅。

  • NAST continued to outperform, growing volume 3% year over year, significantly outpacing a market that was down 7%, while expanding gross margins and improving operating leverage. Global Forwarding's AGP was lower year over year due to lower ocean rates, but gross margins expanded year over year and sequentially due to disciplined pricing and revenue management.

    NAST 繼續表現出色,銷量年增 3%,顯著超過了下降 7% 的市場,同時擴大了毛利率並提高了營運槓桿。由於海運費率下降,環球貨運的調整後毛利年減,但由於嚴格的定價和收入管理,毛利率年比和季比均有所增長。

  • On a monthly basis, compared to Q3 of last year, our total company AGP per business day was down 3% in July, flat in August, and down 9% in September. This was primarily driven by lower ocean rates, which caused Q3 ocean AGP per shipment to decline 27.5% year over year.

    按月計算,與去年第三季相比,我們公司每個營業日的總調整後毛利在 7 月下降了 3%,8 月持平,9 月下降了 9%。這主要是由於海運運費下降,導致第三季每批海運貨物的AGP年減27.5%。

  • Turning to expenses, Q3 personnel expenses were $349.3 million, including $9.7 million of charges related to workforce reductions. Excluding these charges, our Q3 personnel expenses were $339.6 million, down $19.1 million due to the divestiture of our Europe Surface Transportation business and our continued productivity and cost optimization efforts.

    再來看支出,第三季人事支出為 3.493 億美元,其中包括與裁員相關的 970 萬美元費用。除上述費用外,我們第三季的人員支出為 3.396 億美元,減少了 1,910 萬美元,這得益於我們剝離了歐洲地面運輸業務以及我們持續的生產力和成本優化工作。

  • Our average headcount was down 10.8% year over year in Q3 and was down 2.3% sequentially, illustrating our continued decoupling of headcount growth from volume growth. Based on year-to-date personnel expenses of $1.02 billion, excluding restructuring charges and current expectations for Q4, we still expect 2025 personnel expenses to be in the guidance range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, but above the midpoint of the range.

    第三季度,我們的平均員工人數較去年同期下降了 10.8%,較上季下降了 2.3%,這表明我們持續實現了員工人數成長與業務量成長的脫鉤。根據今年迄今的人員費用 10.2 億美元(不包括重組費用和目前對第四季度的預期),我們仍然預計 2025 年的人員費用將在 13 億美元至 14 億美元的指導範圍內,但高於該範圍的中點。

  • Our Q3 SG&A expenses totaled $135.9 million, excluding 2024 charges primarily related to the divestiture of our Europe Surface Transportation business. SG&A expenses were up $0.9 million, or 0.7% year over year. Based on year-to-date SG&A expenses of $417.7 million, excluding restructuring charges and current expectations for Q4, we still expect our 2025 SG&A expenses to be in the range of $550 million to $600 million, but above the midpoint of the range. This guidance includes depreciation and amortization that is expected to be $100 million to $105 million versus our previous guidance of $95 million to $105 million.

    第三季銷售、一般及行政費用總計 1.359 億美元,不包括主要與剝離歐洲地面運輸業務相關的 2024 年費用。銷售、一般及行政費用年增 0.9 萬美元,增幅為 0.7%。根據今年迄今的銷售、一般及行政費用 4.177 億美元(不包括重組費用和目前對第四季度的預期),我們仍然預計 2025 年的銷售、一般及行政費用將在 5.5 億美元至 6 億美元之間,但高於該範圍的中點。該指引包括預計為 1 億美元至 1.05 億美元的折舊和攤銷,而我們先前的指引為 9,500 萬美元至 1.05 億美元。

  • Shifting back to Q3, our effective tax rate for the quarter was 20.6%. We continue to expect the full-year 2025 tax rate to be in the range of 18% to 20%. We generated $275.4 million in cash from operations in Q3, and our capital expenditures were $18.6 million during the quarter. We still expect our full-year capital expenditures to be $65 million to $75 million.

    回到第三季度,我們該季度的實際稅率為 20.6%。我們仍然預計 2025 年全年稅率將在 18% 至 20% 的範圍內。第三季度,我們的營運活動產生了 2.754 億美元的現金,當季資本支出為 1,860 萬美元。我們仍預期全年資本支出為 6,500 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元。

  • From a balance sheet perspective, we ended Q3 with approximately $1.37 billion of liquidity, including $1.23 billion of committed funding under our credit facilities and a cash balance of $137 million. Our net debt-to-EBITDA leverage at the end of Q3 was 1.17 times, down from 1.40 times at the end of Q2. This financial strength is a key differentiator in our industry, giving us the ability to continue investing through the bottom of the freight cycle and further enhancing our capabilities.

    從資產負債表的角度來看,我們在第三季末擁有約 13.7 億美元的流動資金,其中包括根據我們的信貸安排承諾的 12.3 億美元資金和 1.37 億美元的現金餘額。第三季末,我們的淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 1.17 倍,低於第二季末的 1.40 倍。這種財務實力是我們行業的關鍵差異化因素,使我們能夠在貨運週期的低谷期繼續投資,並進一步增強我們的能力。

  • While our capital allocation strategy remains grounded in maintaining an investment-grade credit rating, our financial strength and improved leverage ratio enabled us to return approximately $190 million of cash to shareholders in Q3 through $115 million of share repurchases and $75 million of dividends.

    儘管我們的資本配置策略仍然以維持投資等級信用評級為基礎,但我們的財務實力和改善的槓桿率使我們能夠在第三季度透過 1.15 億美元的股票回購和 7,500 萬美元的股息向股東返還約 1.9 億美元的現金。

  • Through the disciplined execution of our strategy, with our lean operating model and AI innovation at its core, Q3's results further validate the lean AI transformation underway at C.H. Robinson. As we carry this momentum forward, we are well positioned to continue outperforming in any market environment while creating long-term value for our stakeholders.

    透過嚴格執行我們的策略,以精益營運模式和人工智慧創新為核心,第三季的業績進一步驗證了羅賓遜公司正在進行的精益人工智慧轉型。憑藉這一發展勢頭,我們有能力在任何市場環境下繼續取得優異表現,同時為我們的利害關係人創造長期價值。

  • That covers our Q3 results. And now, I would like to give an update on the financial targets that we originally shared at our 2024 Investor Day in December.

    以上就是我們第三季的業績報告。現在,我想就我們在去年 12 月的 2024 年投資者日上最初提出的財務目標作一次更新說明。

  • Based on the confidence in our strategy, our disciplined execution, and our significant runway for further improvement, we issued a separate press release today announcing an increase in our 2026 operating income target. We originally expected to increase our 2026 operating income by $350 million to $450 million versus our 2023 adjusted operating income of $553 million.

    基於我們對自身策略的信心、我們嚴謹的執行力以及我們未來巨大的改善空間,我們今天另行發布新聞稿,宣布提高 2026 年的營業收入目標。我們最初預計 2026 年的營業收入將比 2023 年調整後的營業收入 5.53 億美元增加 3.5 億美元至 4.5 億美元。

  • Today, we increased that expectation by roughly $50 million despite market dynamics that have created greater headwinds than we originally anticipated. This results in a new 2026 operating income target range of $965 million to $1.04 billion. The bottom end of this range, which assumes zero market volume growth, equates to approximately $6 of earnings per share.

    今天,儘管市場動態帶來的不利影響比我們最初預期的要大,但我們仍將預期提高了約 5,000 萬美元。由此得出新的 2026 年營業收入目標範圍為 9.65 億美元至 10.4 億美元。該範圍的下限(假設市場交易量增長為零)相當於每股收益約 6 美元。

  • The full range of market volume growth assumptions include an expectation that if the market does return to year-over-year growth, it likely won't occur into the second half of 2026, in line with the market predictions of external sources such as ACT research.

    市場交易量成長假設的全部範圍包括這樣的預期:如果市場恢復同比增長,那麼這種情況很可能要到 2026 年下半年才會發生,這與 ACT 研究等外部來源的市場預測一致。

  • So let's talk about what's behind the higher target. In our December Investor Day, we estimated that our strategic initiatives to grow market share, expand gross margins, and increased operating leverage would deliver $220 million of adjusted operating income growth in 2026 versus 2024. Today, we are raising that expectation to $336 million, reflecting stronger benefits from our lean AI strategy, resulting in additional productivity improvement and operating leverage, as well as additional benefit in 2026 from continued gross margin expansion and market share growth.

    那麼,讓我們來談談更高目標背後的原因。在 12 月的投資者日上,我們估計,我們為擴大市場份額、擴大毛利率和提高營運槓桿而採取的戰略舉措,將在 2026 年帶來 2.2 億美元的調整後營業收入增長,而 2024 年將比 2024 年增長 2.2 億美元。今天,我們將預期提高到 3.36 億美元,這反映了我們精益人工智慧策略帶來的更強勁的效益,從而進一步提高了生產力和營運槓桿,以及 2026 年持續的毛利率擴張和市場份額成長帶來的額外效益。

  • Embedded in our operating leverage target is an expectation that the disciplined execution of our lean operating model will deliver a baseline of single-digit productivity improvements every year. Then as we incorporate certain innovations into our operations such as Agentic AI, we expect there to be additional waves of productivity. For 2026, this translates to an expectation that we will again deliver double-digit productivity increases in both NAST and Global Forwarding. And we expect these benefits to be over-indexed to the second half of 2026.

    我們的營運槓桿目標中包含這樣一種期望:透過嚴格執行精實營運模式,每年都能實現個位數的生產力提升。然後,隨著我們將某些創新技術(例如智慧體人工智慧)融入我們的營運中,我們預計會出現更多生產力提升的浪潮。到 2026 年,這意味著我們預計 NAST 和全球貨運業務的生產力將再次實現兩位數的成長。我們預計這些收益將在 2026 年下半年充分體現。

  • Although we are at or nearing our mid-cycle operating margin targets at the bottom of the market cycle, we have not increased those targets. We believe our margin targets represent a high quality of earnings, and we want to retain optionality in how to best deliver shareholder value. In other words, we may choose to invest operating margins above those targets to deliver demonstrable outgrowth if we believe that will deliver higher earnings and a better return for Robinson and our shareholders.

    儘管我們在市場週期底部已經達到或接近週期中期的營業利潤率目標,但我們並沒有提高這些目標。我們相信,我們的利潤率目標代表著高品質的獲利,我們希望保留在如何最好地為股東創造價值方面進行選擇的權利。換句話說,如果我們相信這樣做能為 Robinson 和我們的股東帶來更高的收益和更好的回報,我們可能會選擇將高於這些目標的營運利潤率用於實現可證明的超額成長。

  • To further enhance shareholder value, our Board of Directors has authorized a $2 billion share repurchase program, which we currently intend to execute over approximately three years. The new authorization is in addition to the existing share repurchase authorization, which has 4.5 million shares remaining on it.

    為了進一步提升股東價值,我們的董事會已批准一項 20 億美元的股票回購計劃,我們目前計劃在大約三年內執行該計劃。這項新的授權是在現有股份回購授權的基礎上追加的,現有股份回購授權還剩下 450 萬股。

  • As we have said several times over the past year, we are still in the early innings of the transformation that is occurring at C.H. Robinson, with significant runway remaining on the execution of our lean AI strategy. We are proud of the progress we have made and even more excited about what's ahead and about our ability to deliver sustainable, profitable growth and long-term value for our customers and carriers, our people, and our shareholders.

    正如我們在過去一年中多次說過的那樣,C.H. Robinson 的轉型仍處於早期階段,我們精益人工智慧策略的執行還有很長的路要走。我們為所取得的進展感到自豪,對未來的發展以及我們為客戶、承運商、員工和股東帶來可持續的獲利成長和長期價值的能力感到更加興奮。

  • With that, I'll turn the call back to Dave for his final comments.

    接下來,我將把電話轉回給戴夫,請他做最後的總結演講。

  • David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Damon. As you heard in our prepared remarks today, we've made significant progress on the transformation of C.H. Robinson into the global leader in lean AI supply chains. We're redefining what a logistics company can be and our differentiating lean AI gives us a unique opportunity to create a new era in logistics, the era of Agentic supply chains. It's the next chapter in how we solve complex challenges at scale, helping our customers build supply chains that are smarter, faster, and more resilient in a world where disruption is constant and agility is essential.

    謝謝你,達蒙。正如你們今天在我們準備好的發言稿中所聽到的,我們在將 C.H. Robinson 轉型為精益人工智慧供應鏈的全球領導者方面取得了重大進展。我們正在重新定義物流公司的概念,我們獨樹一幟的精益人工智慧為我們創造了一個獨特的機會,開啟物流的新時代——智慧供應鏈時代。這是我們在大規模解決複雜挑戰方面邁出的下一個篇章,幫助我們的客戶在瞬息萬變、敏捷性至關重要的世界中,建立更聰明、更快速、更具韌性的供應鏈。

  • But as I mentioned in my opening remarks and as Arun expanded on, there's an imperfection to our journey. A lean transformation and innovation includes failure and discovery. Innovation is not a single spark, but it's a series of sparks, often messy, sometimes misdirected, but always instructive. As Arun shared, most innovations are never right the first time. We have to build, learn, and discover our path to succeed. And that is where the lean operating model is so important.

    但正如我在開場白中提到的,以及 Arun 進一步闡述的那樣,我們的旅程並不完美。精益轉型和創新包含失敗和發現。創新不是一蹴可幾的火花,而是一系列火花,這些火花往往雜亂無章,有時會偏離方向,但總是具有啟發意義。正如阿倫所說,大多數創新都不可能第一次就成功。我們必須自己去建構、學習和探索通往成功的道路。正因如此,精實營運模式才顯得如此重要。

  • As lean tools continue to be deployed broadly across our organization, our teams are becoming increasingly equipped to identify root causes of problems, implement countermeasures, and drive meaningful improvements. That's how we've consistently delivered outperformance for seven consecutive quarters and how we're positioned to continue to doing so regardless of market conditions or cycle. And as we lead our industry and stay on offense with our lean AI strategy, we've never been more excited about the future.

    隨著精實工具在我們組織內廣泛部署,我們的團隊越來越有能力識別問題的根本原因,實施應對措施,並推動有意義的改進。這就是我們連續七個季度持續取得優異業績的原因,也是無論市場狀況或週期如何變化,我們都能繼續保持這種業績的原因。當我們引領業界並堅持精益人工智慧策略的進攻性發展時,我們對未來從未如此充滿信心。

  • Our technology is lifting manual, repetitive work off our people's plates, freeing them up to use their expertise to do more strategic work, to reach more customers, to garner more wallet share, and to move up the value stack by leveraging our growing capabilities. Our technology is improving our gross margins while allowing us to better align capacity and pricing to the specific needs of our customers and to specific market conditions.

    我們的技術正在將繁瑣的重複性體力勞動從員工身上解放出來,讓他們能夠利用自己的專業知識從事更具戰略意義的工作,接觸更多客戶,贏得更多市場份額,並通過利用我們不斷提升的能力來提高價值鏈。我們的技術提高了我們的毛利率,同時使我們能夠更好地根據客戶的具體需求和具體的市場條件調整產能和定價。

  • These superior dynamic costing and pricing capabilities will be even more important when we eventually see a turn in overall freight demand. And as you just heard Damon talked about, our technology is augmenting our evergreen productivity initiatives and improving our industry-leading cost to serve.

    當整體貨運需求最終出現轉變時,這些卓越的動態成本計算和定價能力將變得更加重要。正如你剛才聽到的達蒙所說,我們的技術正在增強我們持續的生產力提升計劃,並改善我們行業領先的服務成本。

  • I want to thank our people for their relentless efforts to provide exceptional service to our customers and carriers, for embracing the Robinson operating model, and continuing to execute with discipline. We've reinvigorated a winning culture, and we're getting our swagger back. But we have no hubris and we're not resting on our laurels.

    我要感謝我們的員工為我們的客戶和承運商提供卓越的服務所做的不懈努力,感謝他們接受羅賓遜的營運模式,並繼續以嚴謹的態度執行各項工作。我們重振了勝利的文化,也重拾了自信。但我們並不驕傲自滿,也不會固步自封。

  • We are the new disruptor, and we will continue to disrupt our sales and this industry to lead with purpose, move with urgency, drive sustainable outperformance across market cycles, and build a company that future generations will be proud to inherit.

    我們是新的顛覆者,我們將繼續顛覆我們的銷售和這個行業,以目標為導向,以緊迫感行事,在市場週期中實現可持續的超額收益,並打造一家子孫後代引以為豪的公司。

  • That concludes our prepared remarks. I'll turn it back to the operator now for the Q&A portion of the call.

    我們的發言稿到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給接線員,進行問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Richa Harnain, Deutsche Bank.

    (操作員指示)Richa Harnain,德意志銀行。

  • Richa Harnain - Analyst

    Richa Harnain - Analyst

  • So lots of questions. I guess, maybe we can start with the obvious one. There's been a lot of talk around how very low-end capacity is exiting the market. Curious if you saw in these results you put up, which are pretty remarkable, the strong gross margin expansion was in spite of that, at our conference in August, Damon you guys talked about how you're excited to show off your ability to offset what's normally a squeeze when purchase transportation rates start rising.

    所以有很多問題。我想,或許我們可以從最顯而易見的開始。關於低端產能如何退出市場的討論很多。我很好奇你是否注意到,在你公佈的這些非常出色的業績中,儘管如此,毛利率仍然實現了強勁增長。在八月份的會議上,Damon,你們談到,你們很高興能夠展示你們有能力抵消採購運輸費率上漲時通常會造成的壓力。

  • So again, I just wonder if this played out in this quarter and it demonstrated how you can do not just in a down market, but also in a maybe stabilizing a better market.

    所以,我只是想知道這是否在本季度得到了體現,並表明你不僅可以在低迷的市場中做到這一點,而且也可以在可能趨於穩定的好轉的市場中做到這一點。

  • David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hi, Richa. This is Dave. Thanks for the shout out. We appreciate it, and it's good to be at your conference as well. I'll start and then have Michael go a little bit deeper.

    你好,Richa。這是戴夫。謝謝你的推薦。我們非常感謝,也很高興能參加你們的會議。我先開始,然後讓麥可再深入探討。

  • What we are seeing is there's been some -- obviously, some policy changes recently. The US pause on truck driver visas is creating what we see as some localized uncertainty especially in some key markets. So we're watching that, key markets like Southern California.

    我們看到的是,最近顯然出現了一些政策變化。美國暫停發放卡車司機簽證的做法,造成了一些局部的不確定性,尤其是在一些關鍵市場。所以我們正在關注南加州等重點市場。

  • But the way we look at this is a little bit different. It's really more of a stacked type of issue with a number of things just kind of stacking on top. And we think we understand that stack. But I want Michael to double-click into that a little bit more to give you some more context.

    但我們看待這個問題的方式略有不同。這其實是一個多面向疊加的問題,很多事情都像雪球一樣越滾越大。我們認為我們已經理解了這個堆疊。但我希望麥可能再深入探討一下,給你更多背景資訊。

  • Michael Castagnetto - President of NAST

    Michael Castagnetto - President of NAST

  • Yeah. Thanks, Richa. To kind of keep going where Dave was heading. We've seen kind of several regulatory changes or policy changes and individually or [on island], each one of them hasn't had a material impact. But as they have started to stack on top of each other, whether it was the English requirement of what Dave mentioned in terms of the pause on visas, non-domiciled CDLs, that stacking effect does have an impact.

    是的。謝謝你,Richa。算是繼續沿著戴夫的方向前進。我們看到了一些監管變化或政策變化,但就單一變化或(在島上)變化而言,每項變化都沒有產生實質影響。但隨著這些因素開始相互疊加,無論是戴夫提到的暫停簽證的英語要求,還是非居民商業駕駛執照,這種疊加效應確實會產生影響。

  • And I'd say the way we're seeing it is similar to what we've said on past calls of when there are events or when there's pressure in very localized markets, geographic areas for short periods of time, we are seeing more volatile spikes in costing. And that's where we're leaning into our AI-driven pricing engines, our ability to match the right carriers to the right loads, and just making sure we really manage our customer supply chains in the right way.

    我認為,我們目前看到的情況與我們過去在電話會議上所說的類似,即當發生事件或局部市場、特定地理區域在短時間內面臨壓力時,我們會看到成本出現更劇烈的波動。因此,我們正在大力運用人工智慧驅動的定價引擎,將合適的承運商與合適的貨物進行匹配,並確保我們以正確的方式真正管理客戶的供應鏈。

  • We're not immune to these changes. We do think this is having an impact. It's not a long-term impact so far. It's more of a squeeze in certain places for very specific periods of time.

    我們也無法免受這些變化的影響。我們認為這確實會產生影響。目前來看,這還沒有造成長期影響。更像是某些地方在特定時間內受到擠壓。

  • Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

    Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

  • And Richa, I would only add that -- so back to my comments at your conference was around -- we get opportunities to test our capabilities against these micro squeezes all the time, whether it be holidays, whether it be various disruptions in the supply chain. And we continue to perform much better, both in severity and duration on these mini squeezes than we ever have historically, right?

    Richa,我只想補充一點——回到我之前在你們會議上的評論——我們總有機會檢驗我們應對這些微小壓力的能力,無論是假日,還是供應鏈中的各種中斷。而且,無論從嚴重程度還是持續時間來看,我們在應對這些小型擠壓方面都比以往任何時候都做得更好,對吧?

  • So what Michael is describing is a slight variation to that, but a similar example where we truly believe not immune to the squeeze dynamic, right? It's the physics of our industry, but the way in which we handle it, both in duration and severity, we feel like we're in really good shape versus our own historical capability and versus the industry.

    所以麥可所描述的情況與此略有不同,但也是一個類似的例子,我們確實認為這種情況並非不受擠壓動態的影響,對吧?這是我們行業的物理規律,但就我們處理問題的方式而言,無論是持續時間還是嚴重程度,我們都感覺與我們自身的歷史能力以及整個行業相比,我們處於非常有利的地位。

  • David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And I think just to put a period on that, Richa, when you look at the company and where it was yesterday versus today, it's just structurally different on how we go about squeezes. And that is the conversations with our customers, the relationships we've built with them. And Michael and team have done a fantastic job at really managing that along with the technology that we've often talked about. So thanks for the question, and we appreciate it.

    我覺得最後要總結一下,Richa,當你看看公司昨天和今天的情況,就會發現我們在進行擠壓方面,結構上已經發生了變化。這就是我們與客戶的對話,以及我們與他們建立的關係。Michael 和他的團隊在管理這些方面做得非常出色,同時也運用了我們經常談論的技術。感謝您的提問,我們非常感激。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨。

  • Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

    Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

  • Good afternoon and congratulations on the strong results. It's, again, such a tough freight backdrop. It's especially impressive.

    下午好,恭喜你們取得優異成績。這再次證明了貨運市場環境的困難。這尤其令人印象深刻。

  • Wanted to get your thoughts on just volume growth in truckload. I think that skeptics have maybe said, well, hey, they're cutting a lot of costs with C.H., but what are they going to do when -- how are they going to show volume growth? And that's kind of really another proof point. It does seem that you're showing that.

    想聽聽您對整車運輸量成長的看法。我認為懷疑論者可能會說,嘿,他們透過 C.H. 削減了很多成本,但是當他們——他們要如何證明銷售成長?這其實是另一個佐證。看來你確實在展現這一點。

  • So just wanted to get a sense of maybe how you're doing that. Is that really price-driven? Is it driven by more aggressive behavior in some bids that maybe you're having an early effect with enterprise customers? Is that something which you would expect some further acceleration that truckload volume up 3% can go up 5%, up 7%, up 10%, if you look out a couple of quarters? So really some thoughts on the volume growth and just kind of what's driving that and how we can look for that going forward. Thank you.

    所以,我只是想了解一下你是如何做到這一點的。真的是價格驅動的嗎?是因為在某些競標中採取了更積極的策略,所以才對企業客戶產生了早期影響?您是否預期卡車運輸量會進一步加速成長,例如,如果再觀察幾個季度,3% 的成長可能會增加到 5%、7% 甚至 10%?所以,我想談談銷量成長的一些想法,以及推動銷售成長的因素,以及我們未來應該如何看待銷售成長。謝謝。

  • Michael Castagnetto - President of NAST

    Michael Castagnetto - President of NAST

  • Hey, Tom. This is Michael. Thank you for the very nice comments. And really, what I'd say is we've seen positive volume growth in many of the key areas we discussed at our Investor Day a year ago. When we were there, we talked about targeting some key verticals that we thought fit what we do well, retail, energy, automotive, healthcare, and all of them grew year over year in Q3.

    嘿,湯姆。這是邁克爾。非常感謝您的好評。實際上,我想說的是,我們在一年前投資者日上討論的許多關鍵領域都看到了積極的銷售成長。我們在那裡的時候,討論了瞄準一些我們認為很適合我們業務的關鍵垂直領域,例如零售、能源、汽車、醫療保健,所有這些領域在第三季度都實現了同比增長。

  • Kind of tagging that to the additional areas we talked about, whether it's drop trailer, the work we've done in cross-border, and specifically reigniting our small and medium business focus and segment, all of those key areas were up in the quarter. And so I wouldn't say it's one thing that's driving the volume. It's a combination of, first of all, our people just doing a really good job. Second of all, combining our people with the advances we've made in our tech, specifically our AI price-driven modeling.

    把這一點與我們討論的其他領域聯繫起來,無論是甩掛運輸、我們在跨境領域所做的工作,還是重新聚焦中小企業和細分市場,所有這些關鍵領域在本季度都有所增長。所以,我不會說這是單一因素導致的銷售成長。首先,這得益於我們員工的出色工作。其次,將我們的人才與我們在技術方面的進步相結合,特別是我們的人工智慧價格驅動建模。

  • I think what we're getting right when you ask about RFP is we're better understanding what freight we want to win and under what terms we win that freight. And I think we're finding a nice balance between what our customers are looking for and what we think is the right volume for us.

    我認為,當您詢問 RFP 時,我們做對的一點是,我們更了解了我們想要贏得哪些貨運業務以及贏得這些貨運業務的條件。我認為我們正在客戶的需求和我們認為合適的銷售之間找到一個很好的平衡。

  • Going forward, I'm going to keep going back to that term optionality that we've used in the past. We want to be very careful to make sure that we win the right volume. We don't just chase volume for volume's sake. And so I think if the right volume, Tom, continues to be available at the right combination of service and value we can bring to our customers, we'll go take it, but we also want to make sure that we were very smart about it.

    接下來,我將繼續使用我們過去用過的「選擇權」這個術語。我們要非常謹慎,確保贏得合適的銷售量。我們並非為了追求銷售量而追求銷售量。所以我認為,湯姆,如果合適的數量能夠持續供應,並且我們能夠為客戶提供合適的服務和價值組合,我們就會去爭取,但我們也想確保我們這樣做非常明智。

  • The volume year-over-year growth is something we're really proud of, but the market outperformance is pretty demonstrable. And we want to make sure that we're smart in how we do that each quarter.

    銷售量年成長是我們非常自豪的一點,但市場表現優於市場整體水平也是顯而易見的。我們希望確保每個季度都能以明智的方式做到這一點。

  • Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

    Thomas Wadewitz - Equity Analyst

  • Is that occurring with SMB too or in the volume growth and where some of your quick pricing tools are having an effect? Or is that really driven more by enterprise?

    中小企業是否也面臨同樣的問題?或者說,銷售成長是否也存在問題?你們的一些快速定價工具是否也產生了影響?或者,這其實比較是受企業驅動的?

  • Michael Castagnetto - President of NAST

    Michael Castagnetto - President of NAST

  • No, it's across the board in both enterprise customers and in small and medium business.

    不,無論是企業客戶還是中小企業客戶,情況都是如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

    Scott Group,Wolfe Research。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • So I think I heard you say SG&A for the year is going to be above the midpoint. If I'm looking at this right, that's like a $20 million -- over a $20 million increase from Q3 to Q4. So I just want to make sure I heard that right.

    所以我想我聽到您說今年的銷售、一般及行政費用將高於中點。如果我沒理解錯的話,這相當於增加了 2,000 萬美元——從第三季到第四季增加了 2,000 多萬美元。所以我想確認一下我沒聽錯。

  • And then I think you said September net revenue down 9% year over year. Is there something unusual about September? Is that the right run rate to be thinking about for Q4? Obviously, that would be a pretty sharp drop from Q3 to Q4 levels. I don't know that that's right, but just any sort of help or color there. Thanks.

    然後我想你也提到9月淨收入年減了9%。九月有什麼不尋常之處嗎?這是第四季應該考慮的合適運行速度嗎?顯然,這將比第三季到第四季的水平大幅下降。我不知道那樣做是否正確,但任何幫助或顏色都可以。謝謝。

  • Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

    Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So Scott, thanks for the question. As it relates to SG&A, the $20 million is a little high. What I would say is, as we've said many, many times is there's always project spend that's in our SG&A line and it's not as linear as personnel cost on average is, right? And so we feel good about our forecast on SG&A, as we've said, and I think our productivity and our earnings growth shows this.

    是的。斯科特,謝謝你的提問。就銷售、管理及行政費用而言,2000萬美元有點高。我想說的是,正如我們多次說過的那樣,我們的銷售、一般及行政費用中總是包含項目支出,而項目支出與平均人員成本的線性關係並不相同,對吧?因此,正如我們所說,我們對銷售、一般及行政費用的預測感到樂觀,我認為我們的生產力和獲利成長也證明了這一點。

  • We interrogate every dollar of spend and require that our spend is yielding a benefit, whether that be in personnel costs, whether that be in SG&A cost. And so certainly, we are forecasting to be above the midpoint of that range. And we feel like we've got a plan to yield good return on that spending level.

    我們會仔細檢視每一筆支出,並要求每一筆支出都能帶來收益,無論是人員成本或銷售、管理及行政費用。因此,我們預測實際值將高於該區間的中點。我們感覺我們已經制定了一個計劃,可以在這個支出水平下獲得良好的回報。

  • Specifically to your question about September, as we covered in prepared comments, and certainly, we'll speak to on any global forwarding question, as you know, ocean rates have normalized greatly throughout this year and significantly in the quarter, and they continue to normalize, right? So if you think about the impact we had in Q3, where the AGP related to our ocean rates was down over 27%, and we don't feel like Q3 is the bottom of that normalization, right? That normalization of ocean rates will continue through Q4. So that's certainly having an impact on the month-over-month comps that you referenced.

    具體來說,關於您提出的九月份的問題,正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的,當然,我們也會就任何全球貨運問題進行討論,您也知道,海運費率今年以來已經大幅恢復正常,並且在本季度更是顯著恢復正常,而且它們還在繼續恢復正常,對嗎?所以,想想我們在第三季受到的影響,當時與我們的海運費率相關的AGP下降了超過27%,我們並不認為第三季是這種正常化的底部,對吧?海洋價格正常化的趨勢將持續到第四季。所以這肯定會對你提到的月度環比數據產生影響。

  • And so yeah, I think as you look at our results as we head into Q4, it's a very challenging market for Global Forwarding, right? As we've talked about many, many times before, certainly, trade policy has created a lot of uncertainty. It's created a tremendous amount of volatility. Volume has been displaced, peak seasons have been completely displaced and I would argue reduced. And so that level of uncertainty, reduced volume overcapacity that we spoke to, I mean, it's all created a very challenging market in Global Forwarding that you saw in our results for Q3, and that challenging market will certainly continue into Q4.

    所以,是的,我認為,當我們展望第四季的業績時,會發現全球貨運市場面臨非常大的挑戰,對吧?正如我們之前多次討論過的那樣,貿易政策無疑造成了許多不確定性。它造成了巨大的市場波動。銷量已經轉移,旺季完全轉移,而且我認為銷量還減少了。因此,我們之前提到的那種不確定性、運力過剩導致的貨運量減少,所有這些都為全球貨運市場帶來了非常大的挑戰,正如我們在第三季業績中所看到的,而這種挑戰性的市場肯定會延續到第四季。

  • But what I would say is our team is performing extraordinarily well, right? Our productivity numbers for Global Forwarding keep in pressing and keep generating substantial results. Our revenue management within Global Forwarding is ensuring a really high quality of when on the business that we're capturing. So the team is doing a great job on what we can control. But the market is very challenging for Global Forwarding, and I believe that's what you're seeing showing up in the September comps you referenced.

    但我想說的是,我們團隊的表現非常出色,對吧?我們的全球貨運業務生產力持續成長,並持續取得顯著成果。我們在環球貨運業務中的收入管理確保了我們所獲得的業務品質非常高。所以,在我們可以控制的範圍內,團隊做得非常好。但全球貨運市場面臨著非常大的挑戰,我相信這就是你在9月的比較數據中看到的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bascome Majors, Susquehanna International Group.

    巴斯科姆少校,薩斯奎哈納國際集團。

  • Bascome Majors - Analyst

    Bascome Majors - Analyst

  • Arun, if it was easy to do what you're doing, we'd see other people doing it and generating similar results. But with the AI-driven productivity and the return that you earned on that financially, there's certainly going to be a lot more people seeking to try.

    阿倫,如果你做的事情很容易做到,我們就會看到其他人也在做,並且得到類似的結果。但是,隨著人工智慧帶來的生產力提升以及由此獲得的經濟回報,肯定會有更多的人想要嘗試。

  • Can you talk in a little more length about how you stay ahead of sort of copycat strategies and maybe address from other brokerage businesses seeking to do that in-house and separately, third-party software vendors, be they sort of TMS supply chain-type specialist or even startups seeking to kind of sell something off the shelf that can deliver some of the value that you've delivered for shareholders. Thank you.

    您能否更詳細地談談您是如何領先於模仿策略的,以及您如何應對其他經紀公司試圖自行開發類似策略,以及第三方軟體供應商,無論是TMS供應鏈專家,還是試圖銷售現成產品以期為股東創造您所創造價值的新創公司。謝謝。

  • David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, Bascome. This is Dave. Thanks for the question. Good to hear you. I'll start with this. There's three things that we always bring forward on what we're doing, and I think we've been pretty consistent about it.

    嘿,巴斯科姆。這是戴夫。謝謝你的提問。很高興聽到這個消息。我先從這個說起。我們在工作中始終堅持三件事,而且我認為我們在這方面一直相當一致。

  • One is our people or our logisticians. They truly are, we feel, some of the best in the industry in what they do. The technology that we're going to talk more about and double-click on that technology is in the hands of those logisticians certainly is augmenting in superpower and allowing them to do their jobs even better. And the third one is our operating model. And those three together, we certainly feel, is creating this separation and this consistency in our results of what we're doing.

    一是我們的員工,二是我們的後勤人員。我們認為,他們在各自的領域裡,確實是業界最優秀的人才之一。我們將要詳細討論的這項技術,以及我們接下來要深入探討的這項技術,它無疑正在增強物流人員的超能力,使他們能夠更好地完成工作。第三點是我們的營運模式。我們確信,這三者共同作用,造就了我們所做工作的成果的這種差異性和一致性。

  • Each one by itself, I think you start being average. And what we're doing here is something different, and it's showing up different because we're faster, we fail fast. We solve problems faster. All of that ends up going to the bottom line. And as we often say, there is no hobby AI here. We're doing everything around an ROI.

    單看每一項,我覺得你都會變得平庸。而我們在這裡所做的事情有所不同,其結果也不同,因為我們的速度更快,我們快速試錯。我們解決問題的速度更快。所有這些最終都會影響到最終結果。正如我們常說的,這裡沒有業餘人工智慧。我們所做的一切都圍繞著投資回報率。

  • And so, Arun can go into it a little bit more on the technology part, but I wanted to just frame it on how we're going about operating the company every day.

    所以,Arun 可以更詳細地介紹技術方面的內容,但我只想從我們日常營運公司的方式來闡述。

  • Arun Rajan - Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer

    Arun Rajan - Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, David. And Bascome, Dave laid out really well in terms of like the operating model being the sort of starting point, right? The goals are set in a way that it requires us to come up with breakthrough thinking and disruptive innovation. That's how the operating model works. It challenges us to do so. So that's the first part of it.

    是的。謝謝你,大衛。戴夫·巴斯科姆(Dave Bascome)就營運模式這一出發點做了非常清晰的闡述,對吧?目標的設定要求我們提出突破性思維和顛覆性創新。這就是這種營運模式的運作方式。它促使我們這樣做。這是第一部分。

  • And when we met at Investor Day, we talked about disruptive innovation and disrupting from within this notion of C.H. Robinson in the past being disrupted by other companies. There was all this rhetoric around that, but we've clearly been disrupting from within, which means using the operating model as sort of the baseline, we are now adopting technology and implementing technology with a clear true line to financials, right?

    在投資者日上,我們見面時談到了顛覆性創​​新,以及從內部進行顛覆,這與 C.H. Robinson 過去被其他公司顛覆的理念不謀而合。圍繞這一點有很多言論,但我們顯然一直在從內部進行顛覆,這意味著以營運模式為基準,我們現在正在採用和實施與財務狀況有明確直接聯繫的技術,對吧?

  • Again, if you remember at Investor Day, we said our technology and our investments are going to drive operating margin expansion through productivity, gross margin expansion, and growth. And so if you look at sort of this disruptive innovation, the way it works, when Gen AI came out and our teams say, well, we have a goal. We create this big goal, and the teams have to come up with feeling out how to leverage Gen AI in a disruptive way to deliver that upside, right?

    再說一遍,如果你還記得投資者日的話,我們說過,我們的技術和投資將透過提高生產力、擴大毛利率和實現成長來推動營業利潤率的擴張。因此,如果你觀察這種顛覆性創新,看看它的運作方式,當 Gen AI 問世時,我們的團隊說,我們有一個目標。我們設定了這個遠大的目標,團隊必須想辦法摸索如何以顛覆性的方式利用人工智慧來實現這一目標,對吧?

  • And I think the benefit is that we're not working with a third party. It's our people, our engineers who understand our domain, working in the confines and context of our operating model, all together that are driving this innovation and these results. So there's space to be messy and build and learn. Equally, we have the guardrails of our operating model to make sure that translates into ROI and actual bottom-line results. So that's how it is.

    我認為這樣做的好處是我們不需要與第三方合作。正是我們的人員,我們了解自身領域的工程師,在我們的營運模式的限制和背景下共同努力,才推動了這項創新和這些成果。所以這裡有空間可以盡情發揮、創造和學習。同樣,我們的營運模式也設有保障措施,以確保這些措施能夠轉化為投資報酬率和實際的最終收益。事情就是這樣。

  • And we have that with Gen AI 12 to 18 months ago and now in that same curve with Agentic AI. And we expect that it will deliver the same type of upside that we've seen in the past 12 to 18 months with Gen AI.

    12 到 18 個月前,我們看到了 Gen AI 的發展趨勢,而現在 Agentic AI 也正處於同樣的發展階段。我們預計它將帶來與過去 12 到 18 個月 Gen AI 類似的成長潛力。

  • Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

    Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Bascome. This one is an important one, so I'll jump in as well. It's passionate to all of us that talk about this a lot.

    是的,巴斯科姆。這個問題很重要,所以我也來說兩句話。對於我們這些經常談論這個話題的人來說,它充滿了激情。

  • We think about how we're approaching go-to-market, right, what we call an AI, right? It is the combination of our operating model. It is a combination of our technology. And we think of how many moats are we building between us and competition. That's the way we think about what we're doing versus others may be doing.

    我們會思考如何進行市場推廣,對吧,也就是我們所說的AI,對吧?這是我們營運模式的組合。這是我們各項技術的結合。我們會思考,我們與競爭對手之間究竟構築了多少道護城河。這就是我們看待自己所做的事情與其他人可能正在做的事情的方式。

  • Look, I think it starts with our strategy, right? Dave mentioned this a lot, right? Our strategy is to outgrow our markets and expand our operating margins. If you don't get that strategy right, you pick one of the two, right? We don't pick one of the two. We do both, right? And I think that also builds the philosophy for how we build the tech and how we drive the operating model.

    我認為,這一切都始於我們的策略,對吧?戴夫經常提到這一點,對吧?我們的策略是超越市場需求,擴大營業利益率。如果策略不對,你就只能二選一,對吧?我們不選擇兩者之一。我們兩者都做,對吧?我認為這也能幫助我們建構技術以及推動營運模式的理念。

  • The operating model itself, we think, is a clear differentiator. Arun mentioned how do we start down the journey of Agentic AI. That was born from the operating model. It was, guys, we have to figure out how do we deliver future results, how are we going to do it. The operating model facilitates that discussion.

    我們認為,營運模式本身就是一個明顯的差異化因素。Arun 提到了我們如何開始探索智慧體人工智慧的旅程。這是從營運模式衍生出來的。當時的問題是,夥伴們,我們必須想辦法取得未來的成果,該怎麼做才能做到。這種營運模式有利於進行討論。

  • Tech team goes back, comes back and says, hey, we think the way we're going to get there, the path we'll get there is to agentic, right? At the time, we were exploring the possibilities of Gen AI, right? So the operating model drives our tech to be better. Our tech drives the operating model to be better. It is really the symbiotic relationship that we call lean AI that we think is unique to anyone in the industrial space.

    技術團隊回去後說,嘿,我們認為我們實現目標的方式,我們實現目標的路徑是走向智慧化,對吧?當時,我們正在探索人工智慧的可能性,對吧?因此,營運模式推動我們的技術不斷進步。我們的技術推動營運模式不斷改進。我們認為,真正獨一無二的,是我們稱為精實人工智慧的這種共生關係,是工業領域獨有的。

  • Dave spoke about our experts, right? The human in the loop, getting that right. We've talked about our tech makes our people better. Our people make our tech butter. We think that is a critical element that we've refined, right? We think we have the right mix of human and technology to deliver the right value for Robinson and our customers.

    戴夫剛才提到了我們的專家,對吧?關鍵在於人,要把這件事做好。我們已經討論過,我們的技術能夠提升員工的能力。我們的人才是我們技術成功的基石。我們認為這是我們已經改進的關鍵要素,對嗎?我們認為我們擁有合適的人才和技術組合,能夠為羅賓遜公司和我們的客戶創造合適的價值。

  • And the last thing I'll speak to is as you mentioned some of the start-ups, we're approaching this like a startup, but with scale, but with an investment-grade balance sheet, industry-leading data, right? We can do things with technology nobody else can do because of those attributes, right? So very difficult for a startup to compete with what Robinson can do when we're acting like a startup in the way we're developing our technology.

    最後我想談談你剛才提到的一些新創公司,我們正以新創公司的方式開展業務,但規模更大,擁有投資級的資產負債表和行業領先的數據,對吧?正因為具備這些特性,我們才能利用科技做到別人做不到的事情,對吧?因此,當我們以新創公司的方式開發技術時,新創公司很難與 Robinson 的實力相匹敵。

  • And then lastly is we're developing our own tech, right? So we have 450 engineers that are Robinson employees. They know the business, right? They know the outcomes we need to deliver. And because there are engineers, the amount of lead time we can reduce the pace in which we can create a discipline and deploy it to the operations at scale is far greater than if we were using a third-party vendor.

    最後一點是,我們正在開發自己的技術,對吧?所以我們有450位工程師是羅賓遜公司的員工。他們懂這行,對吧?他們知道我們需要達成的目標。而且,由於我們有工程師,我們可以大大縮短創建規範並將其大規模部署到營運中的提前期,這比我們使用第三方供應商要快得多。

  • So if you add all of that up, that's the moat that we talk about. It's not just one. It's multiple moats that we talked about and why we believe what we're doing is special at C.H. Robinson versus other companies.

    所以,把所有這些加起來,就是我們所說的護城河。不只一個。我們談到了多重護城河,以及為什麼我們認為 C.H. Robinson 所做的事情與其他公司相比是特別的。

  • Arun Rajan - Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer

    Arun Rajan - Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer

  • I'll just add two more things that Damon triggered for me. One is our data set and everything we build depends on our algorithms learning from our vast data set, so that is a huge advantage. And the other point is we own the technology, and therefore, when you put the scale on our platform, once we pay for those fixed costs, the marginal costs are very, very small. So it drives the scalability of the model.

    我再補充兩件達蒙讓我想到的事。其一是我們的資料集,我們所建構的一切都依賴我們的演算法從我們龐大的資料集中學習,所以這是一個巨大的優勢。另一點是,我們擁有這項技術,因此,當我們的平台規模擴大後,一旦我們支付了這些固定成本,邊際成本就非常非常小了。因此,它決定了模型的可擴展性。

  • David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Bascome, you hit a nerve on here. We do like to talk about that. I'll finish with -- I'm not saying you put this on a T-shirt or anything, but lean is really the engine and AI is the accelerator. And you think about it that way. And our people really do enjoy this as we continue to transform. So thanks for the question.

    是的。巴斯科姆,你戳到我的痛處了。我們確實喜歡談論這個話題。最後我想說──我不是說要你把這句話印在T恤上什麼的,但精實化才是真正的引擎,而人工智慧才是加速器。你就是這麼想的。隨著我們不斷轉型,我們的員工也確實很享受這種局面。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jonathan Chappell, Evercore.

    喬納森·查佩爾,Evercore。

  • Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

    Jonathan Chappell - Analyst

  • Damon, just one quick clarification first on this '26 updated operating income bridge. You already spoke to some of the challenges in Global Forwarding. I think when you introduced this, you had said Global Forwarding would be kind of run rating at the, I'll call it, depressed levels of second-half '23. Is that reset lower given what you've seen recently? Or is that the same?

    Damon,首先請你快速澄清一下關於 2026 年更新後的營業收入過渡期的問題。您已經談到了全球貨運面臨的一些挑戰。我認為,當你介紹這個的時候,你曾說過全球貨運業務的評級將處於,我稱之為,2023 年下半年的低迷水平。根據你最近看到的情況來看,這個重置幅度是否更低?或者,這兩者是一樣的嗎?

  • And then let me just introduce the second one, too, so I can clear the deck here. This concept of retaining the optionality to deliver demonstrable outgrowth once you hit these margin targets, I assume there's an element of organic and inorganic in that. If we think to the inorganic part of it, what's the real opportunity set there for you, just given everything you've done internally to potentially purchase something and introduce what you've done? And are there any risks to that to taking something from outside the core Robinson business today?

    然後,我也要介紹第二個,這樣我就可以把這裡的事情都解決了。在達到這些利潤目標後,保留實現可證明的成長的選擇權這一概念,我認為其中包含了內生成長和非內生成長的因素。如果我們從非有機成長的角度來看,考慮到你內在所做的一切,你真正有機會收購一些東西並引入你所做的事情,這其中蘊藏著怎樣的真正機會?那麼,從羅賓遜公司核心業務之外引入某些東西,是否存在任何風險?

  • Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

    Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks for the question, John. So I'll answer the first one. So if you think about our market normalization construct, which included not only ocean rates normalizing, but also truck load rates normalizing as well, what I'd say is that, that incremental pressure that you see that we've built into the new construct versus the original isn't really on the back of global forwarding.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,約翰。那我先回答第一個問題。所以,如果你考慮我們的市場正常化結構,其中不僅包括海運價格正常化,還包括卡車運輸價格正常化,我想說的是,你看到的我們在新結構中與原結構相比所增加的壓力,實際上並不是來自全球貨運。

  • What we're seeing in Global Forwarding, we expected to see, right? So I think for the most part, within rounding, Global Forwarding is doing what we thought it would do. We call it out because it's such a demonstrable impact to our results and we want to make sure it's understood that it was a demonstrable impact to Q3. We think it will be a sizable impact to Q4. But it doesn't change the overall Global Forwarding aspect of that ocean rate normalization as we build that 2026 construct.

    我們在全球貨運領域看到的情況,都在意料之中,對吧?所以我覺得,在捨去方面,Global Forwarding 大部分都達到了我們預期的效果。我們特此指出,因為這對我們的業績產生了非常明顯的影響,我們希望確保大家明白,這確實對第三季產生了明顯的影響。我們認為這將對第四季度產生相當大的影響。但這並不會改變我們在建構 2026 年框架時,海運費率正常化的整體全球貨運方面。

  • Really, that incremental pressure is what you're seeing is truckload rates not recovering to the levels we thought they would on a slower pace. So I wouldn't think of it as ocean rates deteriorate. I think of it as truckload rates not adding benefit at the rate we thought it would add as we built that original construct. But pretty modest change overall, as you look at the entire landscape of how we get to that $6 of EPS with no market growth.

    實際上,這種漸進式的壓力體現在卡車運輸價格沒有像我們預期的那樣以較慢的速度恢復到之前的水平。所以我不認為這是海運價格下跌。我認為,卡車運輸費率並沒有像我們最初建造該結構時所預期的那樣帶來收益。但從整體來看,在沒有市場成長的情況下,我們如何實現每股收益 6 美元,變化相當有限。

  • But to answer your question specifically, I'd say immaterial impact overall on Global Forwarding. But again, I think the path in which we get there is important, right? Still normalization in Q3 as we saw, further normalization in Q4, and then it gets to a more stable point as we get into 2026.

    但具體回答你的問題,我認為對全球貨運的整體影響微乎其微。但是,我認為我們到達目的地的路徑也很重要,對吧?正如我們所看到的,第三季仍將趨於正常化,第四季將進一步趨於正常化,然後到 2026 年將達到一個更穩定的點。

  • On your question around market share growth and the optionality, again, another favorite question of ours because we're passionate about it. What I would say is that the walk we've provided for '26 is certainly over-indexed to organic, right? So when we talk about the pipeline of opportunities that we have to execute, certainly, outgrowth initiatives are a key part of that pipeline.

    關於您提出的市佔率成長和選擇權的問題,這也是我們最喜歡的問題之一,因為我們對此充滿熱情。我想說的是,我們為 2026 年提供的步行路線肯定過於偏向有機食品,對吧?因此,當我們談到需要執行的機會管道時,當然,成長計劃是該管道的關鍵部分。

  • So that pipeline includes outgrowth initiatives, it includes gross margin expansion initiatives, and it includes cost reduction and avoidance initiatives. So when you look at our waterfall and our build to '26, it is certainly over-indexed to organic opportunities. Now with that said, as we mentioned often, we're looking at inorganic opportunities all the time. Now our bar is extremely high on inorganic opportunities.

    因此,該計劃包括成長計劃、毛利率擴張計劃以及成本削減和規避計劃。所以,當你審視我們的瀑布圖和到 2026 年的發展規劃時,你會發現它顯然過度專注於有機成長機會。話雖如此,正如我們經常提到的,我們一直在尋找非有機成長的機會。現在我們對非有機成長機會的要求非常高。

  • So kind of your part B to that question was, is there any risk of you making a mistake potentially on the inorganic side of that equation? That's why I said if you think about '26, certainly, well over-indexed to organic. We are kicking the tires on inorganic.

    所以,你對這個問題的 B 部分回答是:在等式的無機部分,你是否有可能犯錯?所以我才說,如果你想想 2026 年,那一定是有機產品過度上市了。我們正在對無機物進行初步考察。

  • When we do make an inorganic move, and we will at some point in time, it will be obvious to our investors why we made that move. It will be a high-quality decision. The price we pay will be obvious to the value we get, the synergy case will be obvious. Our commitment, Dave's commitment, we won't make a mistake on M&A. So hopefully, that answers your two questions, John.

    當我們進行非有機成長時(我們遲早會這樣做),我們的投資者會很清楚我們為什麼要這樣做。這將是一個高品質的決定。我們付出的代價將與我們獲得的價值相匹配,協同效應也將顯而易見。我們的承諾,戴夫的承諾,我們不會犯下併購方面的錯誤。希望這能解答你的兩個問題,約翰。

  • David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And John, just to put a period on that. Yeah, as Damon said, it's a big of disciplined and measured. We're very much disciplined and measured as we look at inorganic. So thanks for that question, and it's something that we look at often.

    還有約翰,就此打住吧。是的,正如達蒙所說,這是一種自律和有條不紊的做法。我們在審視無機物時,採取了非常嚴謹和謹慎的態度。感謝您的提問,這也是我們經常關注的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

    克里斯‧韋瑟比,富國銀行。

  • Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

    Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe I wanted to come back to the productivity and maybe zoom out a bit. So you talked to think about 2026 double-digit productivity continuing. And then beyond that, I think there's a baseline of single digits.

    也許我想回歸工作效率,或許想稍微跳脫固有思維,從更宏觀的角度來看問題。所以你們談到了2026年兩位數生產力成長的預期。而且,我認為在此基礎上,應該會有個位數的基準。

  • So I guess as you think about the opportunity in front of you, I guess, are there limitations on productivity, obviously, within reason that require a deceleration as we get past 2026, it seems like there's a lot of new and exciting innovations that you have. And the sort of third inning first inning comment would maybe suggest that there could be more.

    所以我想,當你思考擺在你面前的機會時,我想,生產力是否有限制?顯然,在合理的範圍內,隨著我們進入 2026 年後,生產力需要放緩。但看起來你們有很多新的、令人興奮的創新。而這種「第三局第一局」式的評論或許暗示著還有更多可能。

  • So I just want to maybe expand a little bit on the productivity opportunity, particularly beyond 2026.

    所以我想就生產力提升的機會,特別是2026年以後的機會,再展開討論一下。

  • David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, Chris. This is Dave. Thanks for the question. Hope you're doing well. We'll jump in here. Let's just start with a bit of context on our productivity.

    嘿,克里斯。這是戴夫。謝謝你的提問。希望你一切都好。我們這就加入討論。讓我們先來了解我們生產力的背景。

  • First, we're pretty proud about the productivity since 2022, over 40%. And we often say on our productivity that double-digit productivity. Ultimately, we're not going to keep that up. We're going to go to single-digit productivity. But there will be times when we enter into certain events, certain technologies that can pivot us back into double-digit productivity.

    首先,我們對 2022 年以來的生產力成長感到非常自豪,成長超過 40%。我們經常說我們的生產力達到了兩位數。最終,我們不會一直這樣下去。我們將把生產力降至個位數。但有時,我們會遇到某些事件,運用某些技術,使我們的生產力重新達到兩位數成長。

  • But the thing I want you to really understand is whether we're on a hot market on the high, our culture and the way we're going forward, we expect with our lean operating model that we're always doing productivity at Robinson. It's not just in a slow market. It's not in a mid-cycle. We expect productivity to happen because it's the way we run the company. So Damon, you can jump in and (inaudible) level on that.

    但我希望你們真正理解的是,無論我們身處火熱的市場,還是處於高位,憑藉我們的文化和前進方向,我們期望透過精益營運模式,在 Robinson 始終保持生產力。這不僅是市場低迷的問題。它不處於週期中期。我們期望生產力能夠提高,因為這是我們公司的經營方式。所以達蒙,你可以插話,(聽不清楚)談談這件事。

  • Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

    Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So, Chris, I'll just kind of round out what Dave said. I mean, think about our productivity in kind of two different stacking constructs, right? We've committed to year in and year out, call it, mid-single-digit productivity just on the back of our operating model, right? So all companies that are practitioners at lean are driving continuous improvements. Robinson is one of those companies. And so think of that mid-single-digit productivity is on the back of our operating model every single year that we're confident we will deliver.

    是的。克里斯,我就簡單補充一下戴夫剛才說的話。我的意思是,想想我們在兩種不同的堆疊結構中的生產力,對吧?我們已經承諾,憑藉我們的營運模式,年復一年地實現個位數中段的生產力成長,對吧?因此,所有實踐精實生產的公司都在推動持續改善。羅賓遜公司就是其中之一。因此,我們有信心每年都能實現個位數的生產力成長,這得益於我們的營運模式。

  • As Dave talked about, there are times we call them waves of productivity. So certainly, we saw a wave of productivity around Gen AI. We're going to see a wave of productivity around Agentic AI. And when we see those waves, those waves push us into double-digit productivity, right?

    正如戴夫所說,有時我們會稱之為生產力的浪潮。所以,我們確實看到了人工智慧時代帶來的生產力提升浪潮。我們將看到智能體人工智慧領域迎來一波生產力提升浪潮。當我們看到這些浪潮時,這些浪潮會推動我們實現兩位數的生產力成長,對吧?

  • So you can't expect those waves to be every year. There's no specific occurrence when you would expect those waves. But I think certainly, when you have kind of that fundamental innovation that drives a completely different way in how you look at processes and costs, you can expect double-digit productivity. So as part of our 2026 guide, we've committed to that double-digit productivity on the back of the second wave of Agentic AI.

    所以你不能指望每年都會出現這樣的浪潮。這些波浪出現的時間並沒有特定的規律。但我認為,當出現那種從根本上改變你看待流程和成本方式的創新時,你肯定可以期待兩位數的生產力成長。因此,作為我們 2026 年指南的一部分,我們承諾在第二波智慧人工智慧浪潮的推動下,實現兩位數的生產力成長。

  • Your question around the early innings concept. So I'll break that into two answers, right? As it relates to lean deployment in the operating model, we're still in the early innings across the enterprise, right? And we say this a lot of time.

    你提出的關於比賽初期階段概念的問題。那我把它分成兩個部分來回答,對吧?就營運模式中的精實部署而言,我們目前在整個企業範圍內仍處於起步階段,對吧?我們常這麼說。

  • If you talk to companies like a [Adana], I'm pretty sure they would tell you after 30 years of lean deployment, they're still in the middle innings, right? So we feel like there's tremendous opportunity and further deploying lean deep within the organization. So we are certainly in the early innings of reaping the benefits of the operating model.

    如果你和像 Adana 這樣的公司談談,我敢肯定他們會告訴你,經過 30 年的精實部署,他們仍然處於中期階段,對吧?因此,我們認為在組織內部進一步深入部署精實理念具有巨大的機會。因此,我們目前還處於享受這種營運模式帶來的益處的初期階段。

  • When we talk about the innings construct around technology and the productivity it brings, we've provided a little bit of clarity. We think NAST is probably in the, call it, third inning of tech deployment productivity. We think Global Forwarding is probably in the first inning of tech deployment productivity.

    當我們談論圍繞著科技及其帶來的生產力所建構的局數結構時,我們已經提供了一些清晰的解釋。我們認為 NAST 可能正處於技術部署效率的第三階段。我們認為全球貨運可能還處於技術部署生產力提升的初期階段。

  • But I think you got to look at it as all kind of a backdrop between lean AI, our operating model, our technology deployment. We're certainly in -- you had to weighted average it. We're in the early innings across the board. But certainly, as it relates to technology, I'd say NAST is in the third inning, Global Forwarding in the first inning.

    但我認為,你應該把它看作是精實人工智慧、我們的營運模式、我們的技術部署之間的一種背景。我們肯定參與了——你必須計算加權平均值。我們現在還處於各方面的早期階段。但就技術而言,我認為 NAST 處於第三局,而 Global Forwarding 處於第一局。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

    Ken Hoexter,美國銀行。

  • Ken Hoexter - Analyst

    Ken Hoexter - Analyst

  • So great job on the efficiency gains, the workforce reduction versus the volume growth. Damon, maybe delve into the $6 potential for '26 that you talked about, it sounds like maybe a little pressure in the fourth quarter, but then $6 potential into '26. The potential to accelerate volume gains may be using more price if margins remain good enough. What triggers you to get there? And then thinking about that $6, are you including the $2.6 billion buyback over the next three years? Or maybe the better question is, your thoughts on incremental as things turn.

    所以,在提高效率、減少員工人數與實現產量成長之間取得良好成效方面,我們做得非常棒。Damon,或許可以深入探討你提到的 2026 年 6 美元的潛在收益,聽起來第四季可能會有點壓力,但 2026 年有 6 美元的潛力。如果利潤率保持良好,那麼提高價格或許可以加速銷售成長。是什麼促使你到達那裡?那麼,說到那 6 美元,你是否把未來三年 26 億美元的股票回購計畫也算進去了?或許更好的問題是,隨著事態發展,你對漸進式發展有何看法?

  • Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

    Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So I'll start with the last just to provide that framework, Ken. So we still have authorization on our current board authorization on share repurchase, right? So we still have 4.5 million shares of authorization that we'll continue to use as part of our capital allocation philosophy, right? The incremental $2 billion will kick in, certainly after we deploy that additional 4.5 million shares.

    是的。肯,那我就先從最後一個開始,為大家提供一個框架。所以,我們目前董事會關於股票回購的授權仍然有效,對嗎?所以,我們仍然有 450 萬股授權股份,我們將繼續按照我們的資本配置理念使用這些股份,對嗎?新增的 20 億美元資金肯定會在我們部署額外 450 萬股股票後發揮作用。

  • Now what I will tell you as far as just kind of modeling out the 120 million shares, right? That number includes I would consider a reasonable assumption that we will continue our level of buybacks into the future and pace that with incremental free cash flow. But then there's also new issuance that go into that number.

    現在我要告訴你們的是,如何模擬這 1.2 億股股票的情況,對吧?這個數字包含了我認為合理的假設,即我們將在未來繼續保持目前的股票回購水平,並隨著自由現金流的增長而加快回購步伐。但這個數字也包含了新發行的債券。

  • So I think you can get to the $120 million by looking at certainly a netting of continuing fairly ratable rate of share buyback, slightly increased based on free cash flow opportunities, again, within our capital allocation construct. And then there would be some offset with new equity issuance as part of that as part of that math.

    所以我認為,透過持續、相當穩定的股票回購率,並根據自由現金流機會略微增加,再結合我們的資本配置結構,可以達到 1.2 億美元的目標。然後,作為計算的一部分,也會透過發行新股來抵銷部分損失。

  • Your question on the outgrowth versus margin construct for '26, again, another area we love to talk about is -- look, the reason we didn't change our 40% NAST target and a 30% Global Forwarding target is, look, we feel like those represent really healthy results, right? So when we're consistently generating 40% and 30%, we feel like that's the right level of health on our margin capability.

    關於您提出的 2026 年成長與利潤率結構的問題,我們再次強調,這也是我們喜歡討論的另一個領域——你看,我們沒有改變 40% 的 NAST 目標和 30% 的全球貨運目標的原因是,我們覺得這些目標代表了非常健康的業績,對吧?所以,當我們持續產生 40% 和 30% 的利潤率時,我們就覺得這是我們利潤能力的合適健康水準。

  • Above and beyond that, we think there are scenarios, and I would call it likely scenarios where we can deploy margin above those healthy levels to AGP accretive market share gains and demonstrable growth, right? And so we certainly feel like that's an opportunity. And that's why we've been out probably for the last six months really talking about that optionality because we think that more than likely will be the right decision to increase shareholder value.

    除此之外,我們認為存在一些情況(我稱之為可能的情況),在這些情況下,我們可以將利潤率提高到健康水平以上,從而實現 AGP 的市場份額增長和可觀的增長,對吧?因此,我們當然認為這是一個機會。這就是為什麼在過去的六個月裡,我們一直在認真討論這種選擇權,因為我們認為這很可能是提高股東價值的正確決定。

  • Now with that said, we're not going to chase bad volume, right? So if there's quarters where volume doesn't warrant share gains, then we'll have margin increases above those target ranges. But we see that as a great opportunity to take demonstrable share going forward when the opportunity presents itself.

    話雖如此,我們也不會去追求糟糕的銷量,對吧?因此,如果某些季度的銷量不足以支撐市場份額的成長,那麼我們的利潤率成長將高於這些目標範圍。但我們認為這是一個絕佳的機會,讓我們在未來有機會時能夠取得顯著的市場份額。

  • Now what I will tell you is, as you mentioned, certainly, we feel very good about the $6 by the end of 2026. It's a journey to get there. As I mentioned earlier, certainly, we want to make sure that we effectively communicate the markets that we're in as we go into Q4 and Q1. We effectively communicate the challenging environment we have for Global Forwarding as we go into Q4, and I would say even into Q1 of next year, both volume and rates.

    現在我要告訴你的是,正如你所說,我們當然對 2026 年底達到 6 美元的目標感到非常樂觀。到達那裡需要一段旅程。正如我之前提到的,我們當然希望確保在進入第四季和第一季時,能夠有效地傳達我們所處的市場狀況。我們有效地傳達了我們在全球貨運業務進入第四季度後所面臨的充滿挑戰的環境,我認為甚至到明年第一季度,無論是貨運量還是運價,都將面臨嚴峻的挑戰。

  • And I would also highlight what we called out in the prepared statements, which is as Arun was laying out, our innovation cycle, it is a cycle, right? And so to reap the technology benefits that NAST is reaping today, it was roughly a 12- to 18-month cycle until we were fully operationalized, fully scaled on those benefits.

    我還要強調我們在準備好的聲明中提到的內容,正如 Arun 所闡述的,我們的創新週期是一個週期,對吧?因此,為了獲得 NAST 今天所獲得的這些技術優勢,我們花了大約 12 到 18 個月的時間才完全投入運營,並充分利用這些優勢。

  • We think that same cycle applies to the agentic benefits we'll get on NAST and the agentic benefits we'll get on Global Forwarding, which is why in our prepared comments, we said, look, we'll get some benefits from that further technology deployment in the first half of '26, but it's certainly over-indexed to the second half of '26.

    我們認為同樣的周期也適用於我們在 NAST 上獲得的代理利益和我們在 Global Forwarding 上獲得的代理利益,因此我們在準備好的評論中說,你看,我們將在 2026 年上半年從進一步的技術部署中獲得一些好處,但這些好處肯定更多地集中在 2026 年下半年。

  • So I think the way you laid it out in your opening comments is right. Look, we've got some challenging sledding on Global Forwarding for Q4 and probably into Q1, but we are extremely confident with a high degree of confidence that the $6 EPS with no market growth that we laid out for 2016 on the back of our self-help initiatives, we feel really good about that commitment.

    所以我認為你在開場白中闡述的方式是正確的。你看,我們第四季以及可能延續到第一季的全球貨運業務將面臨一些挑戰,但我們非常有信心,在2016年,即使沒有市場成長,我們也能實現6美元的每股收益目標,這得益於我們的自助舉措,我們對這項承諾感到非常滿意。

  • Chuck Ives - Director, Investor Relations

    Chuck Ives - Director, Investor Relations

  • And Ken, just one clarifier on the share buyback, too. This is Chuck. When we talk about the $2 billion intent over three years, that really is specific to the $2 billion, not the $2 billion plus the 4.5 million shares that are remaining. Just wanted to clarify that.

    肯,關於股票回購,還有一點需要澄清。這是查克。當我們談到三年內投資 20 億美元的計畫時,這實際上是指 20 億美元,而不是 20 億美元加上剩餘的 450 萬股。我只是想澄清一下。

  • Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

    Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. And to my comment, Ken, I mean, I think as we said, we certainly hold the discretion to move capital allocation around based on the best returns for the company. But barring some material inorganic opportunity that could change that thinking, I think the continuation of our share buyback, as I said, with a potential increase based on free cash flow opportunities is the right way to think about it.

    是的。至於我的評論,肯,我的意思是,正如我們所說,我們當然有權根據公司的最佳回報來調整資本配置。但除非出現一些實質的非有機成長機會來改變這種想法,否則我認為,正如我所說,繼續進行股票回購,並根據自由現金流機會增加回購規模,才是正確的思考方式。

  • Ken Hoexter - Analyst

    Ken Hoexter - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. Just to clarify, though, is that $2 billion plus the 4.5 million shares, is that in the $6 or is that above and beyond?

    偉大的。謝謝。不過,為了澄清一下,這 20 億美元加上 450 萬股,是包含在 6 美元裡,還是額外包含在 6 美元裡?

  • Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

    Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, an assumption around the 4.5 million shares is assumed in the $6, right? The $2 billion would be mostly beyond the 2026 landscape.

    嗯,每股 6 美元假設股票數量約為 450 萬股,對吧?這20億美元大部分將用於2026年以後的事。

  • Chuck Ives - Director, Investor Relations

    Chuck Ives - Director, Investor Relations

  • Yeah. Ken, we specifically called out that it would be $120 million of diluted shares outstanding for the year that gets you to the $6.

    是的。Ken,我們特別指出,要達到每股 6 美元,當年的稀釋後流通股總額將達到 1.2 億美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bruce Chan, Stifel.

    布魯斯·陳,史蒂費爾。

  • Andrew Cox - Analyst

    Andrew Cox - Analyst

  • Andrew Cox on for Bruce. Just wanted to first off, echo Thomas' comments. Congrats on another impressive quarter in a pretty gnarly market.

    安德魯考克斯替補布魯斯上場。首先,我想附和托馬斯的評論。恭喜你們在如此艱難的市場環境下又取得了令人矚目的季度業績。

  • Just to finish up here, I guess I want to talk a little bit about the upcycle shaping. Apologies if you guys have discussed it. I've had a battle with the queue and getting take from the call. But you guys talked about it earlier, how comfortable you guys have been operating in a lower for longer environment. You've proven highly adept here in this market. I just kind of want to discuss also the real opportunity that you guys have said before is that it's not so much in this cost savings at this point in the cycle, but it's the operating leverage that you will eventually see in an up cycle.

    最後,我想稍微談談升級改造的造型。如果你們已經討論過這個問題,我先道個歉。我一直在跟排隊和接聽電話的問題奮鬥。但你們之前也討論過,你們在較低溫度下長時間工作有多麼適應。你在這個市場中展現了極高的能力。我還想討論一下你們之前提到的真正機會,那就是在目前的周期階段,重要的不是成本節約,而是在上升週期中最終將要看到的營運槓桿效應。

  • So I just kind of want to discuss how the model responds in maybe a shallow spot recovery and demand recovery next year versus potentially a steeper one should these regulatory changes progress quicker. Thank you.

    所以我想討論一下,如果明年現貨市場復甦和需求復甦幅度較小,而監管改革進展更快,復甦幅度可能更大,那麼該模型將如何應對。謝謝。

  • Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

    Damon Lee - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks for the question, Andrew. No, that question hadn't been asked, so it's a good one. Look, we feel like our strategy traverses all market cycles, right? So our strategy to outgrow the markets and expand operating margins, the way in which we're rolling out that strategy and doctoring that strategy, it works in all market cycles, right?

    謝謝你的提問,安德魯。不,這個問題之前沒人問過,所以問得好。你看,我們覺得我們的策略可以應付所有市場週期,對吧?所以,我們超越市場成長、擴大營業利潤率的策略,以及我們推行和調整該策略的方式,在所有市場週期中都有效,對吧?

  • So let's just take the current cycle we're in, right? We think, look, longer for -- or lower for longer, we went right? We keep doing what we're doing. We think we have the right recipe on both outgrowth gross profit expansion or gross margin expansion, operating margin expansion. We believe that's the right recipe to keep winning in a continued freight recession, right? So I don't see any change in our direction or our performance in that cycle.

    所以我們先來看我們目前所處的周期,對吧?我們想,你看,時間更長一些——或者更低的價格持續更長時間,我們這樣做對嗎?我們繼續做我們正在做的事情。我們認為我們找到了實現毛利成長或毛利率成長、營業利潤率成長的正確方法。我們相信,這才是應對持續貨運衰退、維持成功的正確方法,對嗎?因此,我認為在這個週期內,我們的發展方向和表現不會有任何改變。

  • And what we also love to talk about is the bear case that does this translate to an up market. We know it does internally, right? And the reason we know it does is because we fundamentally changed the processes in which we're driving productivity, right? And so when we talk about the automation, when we talk about the operating model changes, these aren't brute force. These aren't hatchet changes to how we operate. These aren't temporary cost reductions to get through a trough in the market.

    我們也喜歡討論的是,這種悲觀情緒是否會轉化為上漲行情。我們知道它在內部確實如此,對吧?我們知道它確實有效,因為我們從根本上改變了我們提高生產力的流程,對吧?所以,當我們談論自動化,當我們談論營運模式的改變時,這些都不是蠻力。這些並非對我們營運方式的徹底改變。這些並非為了度過市場低谷而採取的臨時性成本削減措施。

  • We have fundamentally changed the processes. A process that used to be human touch heavy before is now technology heavy today, right? And so when we talk about up-cycle scenarios, there's fundamentally no reason to change our cost structure in those environments, right? And so we talk about this a lot. There would be fundamentally no reason to add back that level of human capacity because the work no longer exists in that nature.

    我們從根本上改變了流程。以前非常依賴人工操作的流程,現在都變得非常依賴技術了,對吧?所以,當我們談論向上循環情境時,從根本上來說,在這些環境下沒有理由改變我們的成本結構,對嗎?所以我們常常談論這件事。從根本上來說,沒有理由再增加這種規模的人力資源,因為這種性質的工作已經不存在了。

  • Really, the incremental cost of managing our technology in an upmarket cycle would be the token cost, right? It's very scalable, and we feel like that beneficial marginal cost of of maintaining our tech in an upcycle will generate substantial operating leverage. So to kind of put a bow on it, look, we feel like our strategy, our tech deployment, our operating model discipline works in all market cycles. It will continue to work and lower for longer, and we feel like it will scale really well when volume returns to this market in some future period.

    實際上,在高端市場週期中管理我們技術的增量成本只是像徵性的成本,對吧?它具有很強的可擴展性,我們認為在經濟週期上升期維護我們技術的這種有利的邊際成本將產生巨大的營運槓桿作用。所以總結起來,我們認為我們的策略、技術部署和營運模式在所有市場週期中都有效。它會繼續發揮作用,價格也會持續走低更長時間,我們認為,當未來某個時期市場交易量恢復時,它將會發展得非常好。

  • David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Bozeman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Andrew. And just to kind of put a bow around that as well said by Damon, it's also our balance sheet and just our financial health. Allowing this company to invest at the bottom of the market goes a long way because that's really tough out there for a lot of people in dealing with a market like this. And we will continue to do that because it sets us up as the market inflects.

    是的,安德魯。正如達蒙所說,這也能很好地總結一下,那就是我們的資產負債表和財務狀況。允許這家公司在市場底部進行投資意義重大,因為在這樣的市場環境下,對很多人來說,這真的很難。我們將繼續這樣做,因為這能讓我們在市場出現波動時佔據有利地位。

  • So we feel like we're in a strong position. Our people, our technology, and our operating model puts us in pole position, and we feel really good about it. So thank you.

    所以我們覺得自己處於有利地位。我們的人員、技術和營運模式使我們處於領先地位,我們對此感到非常自豪。所以,謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And at this time, there are no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back to Chuck Ives for closing remarks.

    謝謝。目前沒有其他問題了。我想把電話轉回給查克·艾夫斯,請他作總結發言。

  • Chuck Ives - Director, Investor Relations

    Chuck Ives - Director, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. We look forward to talking to you throughout the quarter and on our next earnings call. Have a great evening.

    感謝各位今天參加電話會議。我們期待在本季以及下次財報電話會議上與您保持溝通。祝你有個美好的夜晚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And with that, this does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Have a wonderful day.

    謝謝。至此,今天的電話會議就結束了。感謝您的參與,您可以斷開線路了。祝您有美好的一天。