Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Chord Energy Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Lou, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

早安，歡迎參加 Chord Energy 2023 年第三季獲利結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給財務長 Michael Lou。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Laura. Good morning, everyone. Today, we are reporting our third quarter 2023 financial and operational results. We are delighted to have you on our call. I'm joined today by Danny Brown, Chip Rimer, Richard Robuck, and other members of the team. Please be advised that our remarks, including the answers to your questions, include statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from those currently disclosed in our earnings releases and conference calls.

謝謝你，勞拉。大家，早安。今天，我們報告 2023 年第三季的財務和營運表現。我們很高興您接到我們的電話。今天，丹尼布朗 (Danny Brown)、奇普裡默 (Chip Rimer)、理查德羅巴克 (Richard Robuck) 和團隊的其他成員也加入了我的行列。請注意，我們的言論，包括對您問題的回答，包括我們認為屬於《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述的陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與我們目前在收益發布和電話會議中揭露的結果有重大差異。

Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our earnings releases as well as in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. During this conference call, we may make reference to non-GAAP measures, and reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings releases and on our website. We may also reference our current investor presentation, which you can find on our website.

這些風險包括我們在收益發布以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的事項，包括我們的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會參考非 GAAP 衡量標準，並且可以在我們的收益發布和我們的網站上找到適用 GAAP 衡量標準的調整表。我們也可以參考我們目前的投資者介紹，您可以在我們的網站上找到該介紹。

With that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Danny Brown.

接下來，我會將電話轉給我們的執行長丹尼布朗 (Danny Brown)。

Thank you, Michael. Good morning everyone, and thanks for joining our call. I noticed a very busy morning and in that vain, I plan to briefly recap our third quarter performance and touch on some of our key organizational initiatives before passing the call on to Michael Lou. He'll give a little more detail on the financials, some additional color on a few other topics and a small preview of our thoughts for 2024. We'll then open it up to Q&A.

謝謝你，麥可。大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。我注意到一個非常忙碌的早晨，但徒勞無功，我計劃簡要回顧一下我們第三季度的業績，並談談我們的一些關鍵組織舉措，然後再將電話轉給 Michael Lou。他將提供有關財務狀況的更多詳細信息，對其他一些主題的一些額外說明，以及我們對 2024 年想法的一個小預覽。然後我們將進行問答。

So with that, yesterday, Chord reported third quarter 2023 results and raised our full year production outlook. I'm pleased to announce that third quarter volume significantly exceeded original expectations driven by both scheduled acceleration and continued strong well performance. The entire Chord team worked together to bring 45 wells online in the third quarter which was ahead of our original expectations and higher than the 37 wells brought online in the entire first half of the year.

因此，昨天，Chord 報告了 2023 年第三季業績，並上調了全年產量預期。我很高興地宣布，在計劃的加速和持續強勁的油井表現的推動下，第三季的產量大大超出了最初的預期。整個 Chord 團隊共同努力，第三季上線了 45 口井，這超出了我們最初的預期，也高於整個上半年上線的 37 口井。

This accomplishment is even more impressive when evaluating on a 2-mile equivalent basis which amounts to a 42% increase in well delivery in half the time. So to our team, I'd like to say thank you, and I'm very proud of all the hard work that went into executing the program. Underpinned by the strong production, Chord's quarterly financial performance supported robust free cash flow and high shareholder returns.

以 2 英里當量為基礎進行評估時，這項成就更加令人印象深刻，相當於在一半的時間內將油井輸送量增加了 42%。因此，我想對我們的團隊表示感謝，並且我為執行該計劃所付出的所有辛勤工作感到非常自豪。在強勁生產的支撐下，Chord 的季度財務表現支持了強勁的自由現金流和高股東回報。

We generated $207 million of adjusted free cash flow during the quarter and in accordance with our return of capital framework, we returned 75% of this free cash flow to shareholders. To that end, given our base dividend of $1.25 per share and our share repurchases of $52 million as part of our recurring return of capital program, we declared a variable dividend of $1.25 per share. As a reminder, the variable dividend is designed to make up any difference between our targeted free cash flow payout and the amount distributed through base dividends and share repurchases.

本季我們產生了 2.07 億美元的調整後自由現金流，根據我們的資本回報框架，我們將其中 75% 的自由現金流返還給股東。為此，考慮到我們每股 1.25 美元的基本股息以及作為經常性資本回報計劃一部分的 5,200 萬美元股票回購，我們宣布每股 1.25 美元的可變股息。提醒一下，可變股利旨在彌補我們的目標自由現金流支付與透過基本股利和股票回購分配的金額之間的差異。

Finally, with respect to share repurchases, you may note that the aggregate value of share repurchases associated with our return of capital program is up nearly 70% as compared to the second quarter. In addition, we saw incremental repurchases occurring in Chord are sourced from proceeds received through warrant exercises, and I've asked Michael to discuss that topic more in a few moments. As I've said before, we believe our capital return program is peer-leading and demonstrates our commitment to both capital discipline and shareholder returns and to the investment opportunity that Chord represents.

最後，關於股票回購，您可能會注意到，與我們的資本回報計劃相關的股票回購總價值比第二季度增長了近 70%。此外，我們看到 Chord 中發生的增量回購來自透過認股權證行使獲得的收益，我已要求邁克爾稍後進一步討論該主題。正如我之前所說，我們相信我們的資本回報計劃處於同行領先地位，並體現了我們對資本紀律和股東回報以及 Chord 所代表的投資機會的承諾。

Accordingly, we have announced a new $750 million share repurchase authorization, which replaces the old $300 million program and gives Chord additional flexibility to take advantage of our discount to peers and to intrinsic value. Rotating from the quarter to the full year, we've increased production guidance, reflecting the strong third quarter volume performance and modest schedule acceleration I previously discussed.

因此，我們宣布了一項新的 7.5 億美元股票回購授權，取代了舊的 3 億美元計劃，並為 Chord 提供了額外的靈活性，可以利用我們對同行的折扣和內在價值。從季度到全年，我們提高了產量指導，反映了第三季度強勁的銷售表現和我之前討論過的適度的進度加速。

Full year capital is expected to be at the high end of our $850 million to $880 million guidance range, reflecting the acceleration of activity and also higher working interest we're seeing from some of the wells in our program. Operationally, we continue to be encouraged by the progress we're making on 3-mile laterals. Over half the wells we brought online in the third quarter were 3-milers. In total, we've executed about 50 to date and the performance is meeting our expectations. You can clearly see contribution from the furthest portions of the lateral, and we're observing an uplift over time versus 2-mile analog wells in each development area.

全年資本預計將達到我們 8.5 億至 8.8 億美元指導範圍的上限，這反映了活動的加速以及我們從計劃中的一些油井看到的更高的工作興趣。在營運方面，我們在 3 英里支線方面取得的進展繼續令我們感到鼓舞。我們在第三季上線的井中有一半以上是 3 英里井。到目前為止，我們總共執行了大約 50 個，效能符合我們的預期。您可以清楚地看到橫向最遠部分的貢獻，並且我們觀察到每個開發區域中與 2 英里模擬井相比隨著時間的推移有所上升。

You can find additional details on Slides 9 and 10 of our updated investor presentation, where we provided performance data on Chord wells in Fort Berthold and Foreman Butte. In both of these areas, you can see a meaningful uplift in 3-mile cumulative production versus the 2-mile analogs. And Foreman Butte specifically, early time production from 3-mile wells was affected by the Tracer study we discussed on Slide 10.

您可以在我們更新的投資者演示文稿的幻燈片 9 和 10 中找到更多詳細信息，其中我們提供了 Berthold 堡和 Foreman Butte 的 Chord 井的性能數據。在這兩個區域中，您可以看到 3 英里累積產量與 2 英里類似情況相比顯著提升。特別是 Foreman Butte，3 英里井的早期產量受到我們在幻燈片 10 中討論的示踪劑研究的影響。

Once the top portion of the lateral was cleaned out in the 3-mile wells, they began to outperform the 2-mile wells, and we expect that degree of outperformance to increase as the wells continue to produce. Chord also continues to make good progress with respect to our operational performance, drilling, completing and cleaning out these wells. As Slide 9 of our presentation shows we have materially reduced drilling times for 3-mile wells over the past year to approximately 11 days per well, representing an improvement of over 35% in drilling times as compared to the third quarter of 2022.

一旦 3 英里井的側管頂部被清理乾淨，它們的表現就開始優於 2 英里井，並且我們預計隨著油井繼續生產，這種表現的優異程度將會增加。 Chord 在營運績效、鑽探、完井和清理這些油井方面也持續取得良好進展。正如我們簡報的幻燈片9 所示，我們在過去一年中將3 英里井的鑽井時間大幅縮短至每口井約11 天，與2022 年第三季相比，鑽井時間縮短了35% 以上。

On the cleanout side, we've also made steady improvement and have generally been able to stimulate and access the vast majority of the third mile in our most recent wells. During the third quarter, we achieved full TD on substantially all of the 3-mile wells we brought online. As a reminder, for 3-mile wells, we are assuming a 40% EUR uplift for 50% longer lateral and about 20% more drilling and completion cost. Said another way, we're assuming the third mile is only 80% as productive as the first 2 miles. However, with effective completion and cleanup practices, we believe the volume response could be nearly proportional to the percentage of the third mile that's cleaned out.

在清理方面，我們也取得了穩步改進，並且總體上能夠在最近的油井中增產並進入第三英里的絕大多數。在第三季度，我們上線的幾乎所有 3 英里井均實現了完全 TD。提醒一下，對於 3 英里的井，我們假設橫向長度增加 50%，歐元增加 40%，鑽井和完井成本增加約 20%。換句話說，我們假設第三英里的效率僅為前 2 英里的 80%。然而，透過有效的完成和清理實踐，我們相信體積響應可能幾乎與第三英里清理的百分比成正比。

And finally, Chord published its first full sustainability report as a combined company in September, which reflects our commitment to delivering affordable and reliable energy in a sustainable and responsible manner. Thank you to the team for putting this together as it does a great job providing transparency onto our business and highlighting our efforts on emissions reductions, workforce health and safety and corporate governance among other things.

最後，Chord 於 9 月作為合併後的公司發布了第一份完整的可持續發展報告，這反映了我們致力於以可持續和負責任的方式提供負擔得起且可靠的能源的承諾。感謝團隊將這些內容整合在一起，因為他們出色地提高了我們業務的透明度，並強調了我們在減排、員工健康和安全以及公司治理等方面的努力。

We welcome feedback from our stakeholders on our progress and look forward to building upon our ESG efforts to shape and even stronger future for Chord and the communities we serve. To sum things up, we executed well in the third quarter, which sets us up nicely to deliver strong free cash flow and high shareholder returns for the remainder of the year. Our asset base is meeting or exceeding expectations and we will work to drive further improvements going forward.

我們歡迎利害關係人對我們的進展提供回饋，並期待在我們的 ESG 努力的基礎上為 Chord 和我們所服務的社區塑造更美好的未來。總而言之，我們在第三季的表現良好，這使我們能夠在今年剩餘時間內實現強勁的自由現金流和高股東回報。我們的資產基礎達到或超越了預期，我們將努力推動未來的進一步改進。

I'll now turn the call over to Michael.

我現在將把電話轉給邁克爾。

Thanks, Danny. I'll highlight a handful of key operating and financial items for the third quarter and discuss our updated 2023 guidance. As Danny mentioned, oil volumes were strong in the third quarter, about 4.5% over midpoint guidance. Total volumes were about 3.8% above midpoint guidance. Our fourth quarter midpoint oil guidance of [103,500] barrels per day is in line with our August expectations.

謝謝，丹尼。我將重點介紹第三季的一些關鍵營運和財務項目，並討論我們更新的 2023 年指導。正如丹尼所提到的，第三季石油產量強勁，比指導中位數高出約 4.5%。總成交量比指引中位數高出約 3.8%。我們第四季中點石油指引為每天 [103,500] 桶，符合我們 8 月的預期。

And on a full year basis, we increased oil production guidance by over a 1,000 barrels per day. I want to echo Danny's comments on the extraordinary achievement by the core team in the third quarter. This was an exceptional amount of effort, and I'm really proud of everyone involved. Oil realizations remained strong at a modest premium to WTI and were slightly better than our midpoint guidance.

在全年基礎上，我們將石油產量指引提高了超過 1,000 桶/日。我想呼應丹尼對第三季核心團隊非凡成就的評價。這是一項非凡的努力，我為所有參與者感到自豪。石油變現依然強勁，較 WTI 略有溢價，略優於我們的中點指引。

Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect Bakken oil pricing to weaken slightly due to higher basin production and an unexpected refinery turnaround. But pricing is still expected to remain a slight premium to WTI. NGL realizations as a percent of WTI were in line with our midpoint guidance while residue gas pricing as a percent of Henry Hub was a touch below midpoint. We expect pricing for both NGLs and residue gas to improve modestly in the fourth quarter.

展望第四季度，由於盆地產量增加和煉油廠意外好轉，我們預期巴肯石油價格將小幅走弱。但預計定價仍將略高於 WTI。 NGL 實現量佔 WTI 的百分比符合我們的中點指導，而渣油定價佔亨利中心的百分比略低於中點。我們預計第四季液化天然氣和殘渣氣的定價將小幅改善。

Turning to operating costs. LOE was $10.94 per BOE in the third quarter and GPT was $3.16 per BOE. Both were within our guidance expectations, but LOE trend towards the high end mostly due to higher workover expense. We view workover expense as an investment to reduce downtime and enhance revenue. We've seen a meaningful improvement in that downtime over the course of 2023, and we remain focused on lowering the cost side to improve the efficiency of the program. Production tax as a percent of revenue was 8.6% in the third quarter, and we expect a similar rate in the fourth quarter.

轉向營運成本。第三季LOE為每BOE 10.94美元，GPT為每BOE 3.16美元。兩者均在我們的指導預期之內，但 LOE 趨於高端，主要是由於修井費用較高。我們將修井費用視為減少停機時間和增加收入的投資。我們看到 2023 年停機時間有了有意義的改善，我們仍然專注於降低成本以提高計劃的效率。第三季生產稅佔收入的百分比為 8.6%，我們預期第四季也將出現類似的情況。

Chord cash G&A expense was $13.7 million in the third quarter and we lowered our full year guidance slightly to reflect our latest forecast. At this point, the merger integration is substantially complete, and we don't expect significant merger-related costs going forward. DD&A averaged $9.90 per BOE in the third quarter, an increase of almost $1 sequentially. The increase to DD&A reflects the July 1st closing of the XTO bolt-on acquisition as well as midyear reserve changes, mostly due to lower SEC pricing.

第三季 Chord 現金管理及行政費用為 1,370 萬美元，我們略微下調了全年指引，以反映我們的最新預測。至此，合併整合已基本完成，我們預期未來不會產生重大的合併相關成本。第三季 DD&A 平均每桶油當量為 9.90 美元，比上一季成長近 1 美元。 DD&A 的增加反映了 7 月 1 日 XTO 補強收購的結束以及年中儲備金的變化，這主要是由於 SEC 定價較低。

Chord paid no cash taxes during the third quarter. And in the fourth quarter, Chord expects cash taxes to be approximately 0% to 10% of the fourth quarter EBITDA at oil prices between $70 and $90 per barrel. Danny mentioned that we expect capital to be towards the high end of the full year guidance of $850 million to $880 million given a couple of items.

Chord 在第三季沒有繳納現金稅。 Chord 預計，在油價每桶 70 美元至 90 美元之間的情況下，第四季度現金稅將約為第四季度 EBITDA 的 0% 至 10%。丹尼提到，考慮到幾個項目，我們預計資本將達到全年指導的上限 8.5 億至 8.8 億美元。

First, improved cycle times have led to incremental lateral feet drilled during the year versus original expectations. Second, working interest is slightly above expectations, and these working interest increases accounts for approximately $10 million of incremental capital. Danny discussed our return on capital for the quarter and wanted to give you a few more details on our share repurchases. During the third quarter, Chord repurchased $112 million of stock including $52 million related to third quarter return of capital, with the remainder funded by cash proceeds from warrant exercises.

首先，與最初的預期相比，週期時間的縮短導致今年內鑽出的側腳數量增加。其次，營運利息略高於預期，這些營運利息的增加約佔增量資本1000萬美元。丹尼討論了我們本季的資本回報率，並想向您提供有關我們股票回購的更多詳細資訊。第三季度，Chord 回購了 1.12 億美元的股票，其中包括與第三季資本回報相關的 5,200 萬美元，其餘資金來自認股權證行使的現金收益。

We received approximately $73 million of cash from warrant exercises in the third quarter and we're able to use roughly $60 million of this for incremental third quarter repurchases. And with the remaining $13 million of repurchases that were at the beginning of the fourth quarter. This $16 million and $13 million in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, are not included in the calculations for return of capital. Going forward, in a similar fashion, we generally expect to use cash received from warrants to offset dilution. Turning to liquidity. Chord recently completed its fall borrowing base redetermination. The borrowing base and elected commitment remains unchanged at $2.5 billion and $1 billion, respectively. As of September 30th, there was nothing drawn and cash was approximately $265 million.

我們在第三季從認股權證行使中獲得了大約 7,300 萬美元的現金，我們可以將其中約 6,000 萬美元用於第三季增量回購。其餘 1300 萬美元的回購是在第四季初進行的。第三季和第四季的這 1,600 萬美元和 1,300 萬美元分別沒有包含在資本回報的計算中。展望未來，以類似的方式，我們通常預期使用從認股權證收到的現金來抵消稀釋。轉向流動性。 Chord 最近完成了秋季借款基礎的重新確定。借款基礎和選定承諾保持不變，分別為 25 億美元和 10 億美元。截至 9 月 30 日，尚未提取任何資金，現金約為 2.65 億美元。

Finally, turning our attention briefly to 2024. Given the strong growth in oil production in the second half of 2023, as we look into 2024, our corporate annual decline rate increases slightly. As we start to see the benefits of the shallower declines associated with our growing proportion of producing 3-mile wells, we expect this increase in decline to reverse towards the end of 2024 and into 2025. Overall, for 2024, we're expecting a maintenance capital program with full year volumes flat to 2023. On a pro forma basis, this is around 99,000 barrels of oil per day with expected capital a little over $900 million.

最後，將我們的注意力簡單地轉向2024年。考慮到2023年下半年石油產量的強勁增長，當我們展望2024年時，我們的企業年度遞減率略有上升。隨著我們開始看到與我們的3 英里生產井比例不斷增加相關的遞減幅度較小的好處，我們預計這種遞減幅度的增加將在2024 年底和2025 年之前逆轉。總體而言，對於2024 年，我們預計維護資本計劃，全年產量與 2023 年持平。按預計，每天產量約為 99,000 桶石油，預計資本略高於 9 億美元。

Additionally, activity is expected to remain concentrated in the spring and summer months next year. This means that TILs will be focused towards the second half of the year and that 2024 volume should follow a similar pattern to 2023 with the second half of the year higher than the first half. In closing, the Chord team continues to drive to strong performance with a focus on returns. This directly leads to sustainable free cash flow profile and our peer-leading return of capital program.

此外，預計活動仍將集中在明年春季和夏季。這意味著 TIL 將集中在今年下半年，並且 2024 年的交易量應遵循與 2023 年類似的模式，下半年高於上半年。最後，Chord 團隊將繼續致力於實現強勁的業績，並專注於回報。這直接導致可持續的自由現金流狀況和我們同行領先的資本回報計劃。

With that, I'll hand the call back over to Laura for questions.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給勞拉詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Scott Hanold of RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 RBC 資本市場的 Scott Hanold。

Danny, you were talking about seeing some good things coming out of that last mile on the 3-mile wells, and -- can you give us a sense of where your confidence level is seeing -- to see that you're going to get the full contribution on an EUR basis? Like how much more information do you need? And is that kind of performance applicable across different parts of your acreage?

丹尼，你談到在 3 英里井的最後一英里中看到一些好的結果，並且 - 你能否讓我們了解一下你的信心水平在哪裡 - 看看你會得到什麼以歐元為基礎的全額捐款？例如您還需要多少資訊？這種性能是否適用於您種植面積的不同部分？

So maybe I'll start with the second part first, Scott, and then I'll flip it over to [Chip], who may have -- any real differences in one area of the field versus another with respect to how much we're expecting to see in that third mile. So we do think it's applicable across the whole position. From a confidence level standpoint, I think we're -- we've got growing confidence, but that's obviously going to require production over time.

所以，斯科特，也許我會先從第二部分開始，然後我會把它交給[奇普]，他可能有——在我們的工作量方面，該領域的一個區域與另一個區域之間存在任何真正的差異。我們期待在第三英里看到。所以我們確實認為它適用於整個職位。從信心水平的角度來看，我認為我們的信心不斷增強，但這顯然需要隨著時間的推移進行生產。

And so like any of these unconventional wells, we produce flat for some period of time as we were making facility constrained, we go on decline and then that decline we go through our B factor and we turn and we level out at a sort of a terminal decline rate. And so it's just -- it's hard to know exactly what you're going to get until you go through that process and get through that B factor and hit that terminal decline rate to know what your ultimate recovery is going to be.

因此，就像任何這些非常規井一樣，我們在一段時間內生產平坦，因為我們的設施受到限制，我們繼續下降，然後下降，我們經歷了我們的B 因素，然後我們轉向，我們在某種a水平上趨於平穩。終端衰退率。所以，在你經歷這個過程、透過 B 因素並達到最終衰退率來知道你的最終恢復結果之前，很難確切地知道你會得到什麼。

What I will say is we are very encouraged with where we're at right now with the wells we have both that we've done and the wells we've seen across the basin that our underwriting at 40% is we feel very confident with that, but we're having growing that we're going to see more of that but we need to -- we just need to see the production data over time. The pressures look good. The production looks good. This is all giving a strong -- we know we're seeing a contribution from the very furthest part of the lateral because we have Tracer data that shows us that we're seeing that.

我要說的是，我們對目前的情況感到非常鼓舞，我們已經完成的油井以及我們在整個盆地看到的油井，我們的承保率為 40%，我們對此非常有信心但我們正在成長，我們將會看到更多這樣的情況，但我們需要——我們只需要隨著時間的推移看到生產數據。壓力看起來不錯。製作看起來不錯。這一切都給出了強有力的——我們知道我們看到了來自側面最遠部分的貢獻，因為我們有示踪數據表明我們正在看到這一點。

And so I think all of these are -- it's all a growing level of confidence that we're going to be something above this sort of 80% efficiency in the last mile. I think too soon to know exactly what that's going to be, but we're really pleased with what we're seeing. Chip, I don't know what incremental comments you have.

所以我認為所有這些都是——我們對最後一英里的效率將超過 80% 以上的信心不斷增強。我認為現在確切地知道會發生什麼還為時過早，但我們對所看到的感到非常滿意。 Chip，我不知道你有什麼增量評論。

Yes, Scott, thanks for the question. Just a couple of other things. The team has done a fabulous job of cleaning out these 3 milers. We were probably in the 25% in the first half, and now we're close to 95%, 90% clean out, and so they're doing a fabulous job cleaning up the wellbores. As Danny said, I expect that we're going to see the contribution completes the back half, the last mile or so. Also, we're about 5 or 6 different areas throughout the basin. So we're testing that right now. So I would assume sometime in the first quarter, we'll have a lot more data to be able to tell you. But I'm feeling really strong about where we are. The operations and the way the team is cleaning out. So really proud of what they've done.

是的，斯科特，謝謝你的提問。還有其他一些事情。該團隊在清理這 3 英里的任務方面做得非常出色。上半年我們可能處於 25% 的水平，現在我們接近 95%、90% 的清理工作，所以他們在清理井眼方面做得非常出色。正如丹尼所說，我預計我們將看到貢獻完成後半程，最後一英里左右。此外，我們在整個流域內有大約 5 或 6 個不同的區域。所以我們現在正在測試。因此，我假設在第一季的某個時候，我們將有更多數據可以告訴您。但我對我們所處的位置感到非常強烈。團隊的操作和清理方式。對他們所做的事情感到非常自豪。

Great. And Danny, just to maybe pin you down a little bit here. You talked about waiting to see that, get more into the terminal decline past the B factor, like generally, how would you define that? Is that more of a kind of post 2- to 3-year type time frame?

偉大的。丹尼，也許只是為了讓你稍微固定一下。您談到等待觀察，並更多地了解 B 因素之後的最終下降，一般來說，您如何定義它？這更像是一種 2 到 3 年後的時間框架嗎？

I think 2 to 3 years is probably a little long. I don't think we need that long, but with where we're at right now, call it maybe a year plus of data and you start to really get past that factor and we get a much better idea.

我覺得2到3年可能有點長了。我認為我們不需要那麼長的時間，但就我們現在所處的情況來說，可能是一年多的數據，你開始真正克服這個因素，我們會得到一個更好的想法。

Got it. My follow-up is on M&A. I mean, obviously, a lot going on here over the last several months on the M&A side. And look, you guys have obviously participated in that over the last number of years. Can you give us your thoughts on as you look forward, what do you -- how does M&A fit into the Chord strategy? And if you can give some context around in-base and Auto basin being a consolidator and a consolidatee.

知道了。我的後續行動是併購。我的意思是，顯然，過去幾個月在併購方面發生了很多事情。看，你們顯然在過去幾年中參與了這項活動。您能告訴我們您對未來的看法嗎？併購如何融入 Chord 策略？如果您能提供一些關於 in-base 和 Auto Basin 作為合併者和合併者的背景資訊。

Yes. I think maybe I'd sum it up broadly, Scott, by saying, we're believers in consolidation. We're a product of consolidation. That's how Chord was formed. We plan to participate in consolidation as we move forward. And whether that means we are the consolidator or the consolidatee either way is okay. We believe in being part of a larger equity story, and we'll look for sensible opportunities to do that. I think along those veins, as we think about participating in consolidation where we're consolidating. I think in-basin consolidation is obviously a very natural thing for us to look at.

是的。史考特，我想也許我可以概括地說，我們相信整合。我們是整合的產物。和弦就是這樣形成的。我們計劃在前進的過程中參與整合。無論這意味著我們是整合者還是整合者，都可以。我們相信成為更大的股權故事的一部分，並且我們將尋找明智的機會來做到這一點。我沿著這些脈絡思考，當我們考慮參與我們正在整合的整合時。我認為盆地內整合對我們來說顯然是一件非常自然的事。

We have a very significant acreage position in the Bakken. We really touch all aspects of the basin with that sort of slightly over 1 million-acre position we've got. So lots of synergies from an operational standpoint and from -- whether it be sort of our subsurface knowledge, our operational capability, the routes we run, just converting DSUs from 2-mile to 3-mile in-basin consolidation makes a lot of sense.

我們在巴肯擁有非常重要的土地面積。我們擁有略多於 100 萬英畝的場地，真正觸及該盆地的各個方面。因此，從營運角度來看，無論是我們的地下知識、我們的營運能力、我們營運的路線，只要將 DSU 從 2 英里轉換為 3 英里的盆地整合，就可以產生很多協同作用。

We are also -- we are open and have and look at out-of-basin consolidation opportunities, but we're also very clear and recognize that the risk associated with out of basin consolidation is higher than the risk associated within basin consolidation due to all the factors I talked about a moment ago. And so it's just a higher bar to add a basin consolidation versus in-basin. And so -- but thematically, big believers in consolidation. And when you're in a commodity business, I think that's just an important thing to recognize to be focused on.

我們也——我們持開放態度，擁有並關注流域外整合機會，但我們也非常清楚並認識到，與流域外整合相關的風險高於流域內整合相關的風險，因為我剛才談到的所有因素。因此，與盆內合併相比，添加盆地合併的門檻更高。所以——但從主題上來說，他們是整合的堅定支持者。當你從事商品業務時，我認為這是一件需要認識並專注的重要事情。

Yes. And if I could just ask a little tweak to that question, too. Like when you look at in-basin opportunities, how have -- like these higher interest rates impacted like some of the PE players or the smaller players to be willing sellers and the price to pay. Does that have any influence? Are you seeing any kind of impact from the higher interest rates?

是的。如果我也能對這個問題做一些調整的話。就像當你觀察盆地內的機會時，這些較高的利率如何影響一些私募股權公司或規模較小的公司成為願意出售的人以及支付的價格。這樣有影響嗎？您是否看到利率上升帶來了任何影響？

Yes. I think maybe too early to say specifically on that topic is you got to have a number of transactions to see what kind of effect you're seeing, et cetera. Generally speaking, I'd say if you're thinking about cash-based deals [where] debts on the backside, higher interest rates probably aren't very helpful to that. And I'd say big swings in commodity prices are also aren't very helpful to M&A in general. And so we'll see where that goes. Michael, I'll invite you to make any further comments.

是的。我認為，具體地說這個主題可能還為時過早，你必須進行大量交易才能看到你看到的效果，等等。一般來說，我想說，如果你正在考慮以現金為基礎的交易，其中]背後有債務，那麼較高的利率可能對此沒有太大幫助。我想說，大宗商品價格的大幅波動總體上對併購也沒有太大幫助。所以我們會看看它會走向何方。邁克爾，我會邀請您發表進一步的評論。

No, I think that's exactly right. I mean, obviously, the capital markets, the lending markets, all of them are much tighter than they have been across history. And so that financing cost obviously is increasing for both the buyers and as well as maybe forcing sellers to think about exiting earlier just because that financing cost is higher. So it puts pressure on both sides. It also makes obviously, buyers a little bit more disciplined, I would say, with that higher interest cost and how they think about valuations.

不，我認為這是完全正確的。我的意思是，顯然，資本市場、貸款市場，所有這些市場都比歷史上任何時候都更緊張。因此，對於買方來說，融資成本顯然正在增加，並可能迫使賣方考慮提前退出，因為融資成本更高。所以這給雙方都帶來了壓力。我想說，這顯然也讓買家更自律，因為利息成本更高，而且他們對估值的看法也更高。

Yes. No, I appreciate that. And yes, that's exactly what I was pointing to is more of the latter part of that answer where a seller is more motivated and if you have -- you're in a better position as a potential buyer.

是的。不，我很欣賞這一點。是的，這正是我所指出的，更多的是答案的後半部分，即賣家更有動力，如果你有動力，那麼你作為潛在買家處於更好的位置。

I totally agree with that.

我完全同意。

And the next question comes from John Abbott of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·阿博特。

Yes. So I recognize it's still early with the Tracer tests and you're looking at 3-mile laterals. But what do you think the implications could potentially be for 4 miles? I mean, are you ever thinking -- are you considering actually testing a 4-mile lateral with the sort of similar test?

是的。因此，我認識到 Tracer 測試還為時過早，而且您正在考慮 3 英里的橫向測試。但您認為這對 4 英里可能會產生什麼影響？我的意思是，你有沒有想過——你是否考慮過用類似的測試來實際測試 4 英里的橫向行駛？

I think the short answer to that, John, is yes. We've seen 4 miles in other basins. We have -- there's certain least geometries we've got that would really lend themselves to doing 4-mile laterals. You're right, it is early from a 3-mile standpoint. I'll tell you if you sort of rewind the clock and we would have thought at some point moving into 3-mile laterals was a big step into the unknown, and we would have had lots of concerns about it.

約翰，我認為對此的簡短回答是肯定的。我們在其他盆地看到了 4 英里。我們有——我們有一些最小的幾何形狀，它們確實適合進行 4 英里的橫向運動。你說得對，從 3 英里的角度來看還早。我會告訴你，如果你把時鐘倒回，我們會認為在某個時刻進入 3 英里的橫向跑道是邁向未知的一大步，我們對此會有很多擔憂。

But certainly, the 3-mile program to date we think has been very successful. We're excited about it moving forward. And I think the opportunity for 4-mile laterals is absolutely out there and something we're investigating.

但可以肯定的是，迄今為止我們認為 3 英里計劃非常成功。我們對它的進展感到興奮。我認為 4 英里橫向跑的機會絕對存在，我們正在研究這一點。

Very good Danny. And then for our follow-up question, you gave some color on 2024. You talked about -- your current underlying decline rate is a little bit elevated at this point in time. You suggested that could reverse by the end of next year. You indicated that for 2024, that CapEx could be roughly around in the low $900 million range. So when you think about that potential reversal in the underlying decline rate at the end of 2024. When you think about your -- you spent in 2024, what do you think about the potential implications to 2025 CapEx given the change in the underlying decline rate versus the $900 million for 2024.

非常好的丹尼。對於我們的後續問題，您對 2024 年進行了一些闡述。您談到，您目前的基本下降率在此時有點上升。你建議這種情況可能會在明年年底前扭轉。您表示，到 2024 年，資本支出可能大約在 9 億美元的低水準左右。因此，當您考慮 2024 年底基本下降率可能出現逆轉時。當您考慮 2024 年的支出時，考慮到基本下降率的變化，您認為對 2025 年資本支出的潛在影響是什麼而2024 年為9 億美元。

I think with -- as you'd expect, with the lower decline rate, it should be helpful from a reinvestment rate perspective. And so if we're running a maintenance program, all else being equal, you'd expect lower CapEx needed to maintain whatever production you're trying to hold. And so I think it's not beneficial as we see the contribution of these -- as these 3-mile laterals grow in proportion to our existing base and we see that contribution of the shallower decline. It's going to be helpful to us as we march forward in maintaining a production base for better capital efficiency, if you want to look at it that way, but certainly a lower CapEx to maintain or achieve any sort of production level.

我認為，正如您所期望的那樣，隨著下降率較低，從再投資率的角度來看，這應該會有所幫助。因此，如果我們正在運行維護計劃，在其他條件相同的情況下，您會期望維持您想要維持的任何生產所需的資本支出較低。因此，我認為這沒有什麼好處，因為我們看到了這些的貢獻——因為這些 3 英里的支線與我們現有的基礎成比例增長，而且我們看到了較淺下降的貢獻。當我們繼續維護生產基地以提高資本效率時，這對我們很有幫助，如果你想這樣看的話，但肯定會降低資本支出來維持或實現任何生產水平。

So if I can squeeze a quick one in there. So what do you think long-term maintenance CapEx for you gives you at this moment, if you take -- if you think about that sort of deduction, that's changing your underlying decline rate?

所以如果我能快速地擠一個進去的話。那麼，如果您考慮這種扣除，那麼您認為此時此刻的長期維護資本支出會為您帶來什麼，這會改變您的潛在下降率？

Yes. I think if you think we're thinking it's going to be something in the low [900s] next year. We should reverse off of that a little bit. Of course, lots of things can change between here and there with service costs, et cetera. And so we'll have to see when we get to that time frame. But I think with where we're at right now, what we've seen in 2023 and where we're going in 2024, you would expect it to be something more capitally efficient than the anticipated '24 program. And so probably trending back towards what we saw this year.

是的。我想，如果你認為我們認為明年的價格將在 900 左右。我們應該稍微扭轉這一點。當然，很多事情可能會因服務成本等而改變。因此，我們必須看看何時能達到那個時間範圍。但我認為，根據我們現在的情況、我們在 2023 年所看到的情況以及我們在 2024 年的發展方向，您會期望它比預期的「24 小時計畫」更具資本效率。因此，趨勢可能會回到我們今年看到的情況。

(Operator Instructions) That will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Danny Brown, Chief Executive Officer, for any closing remarks.

（操作員說明）我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回執行長丹尼布朗 (Danny Brown) 發表閉幕詞。

Thanks, Laura. Well, to close out, I just want to thank the employees of Chord for their commitment and dedication to our company. It was a really strong quarter from an execution standpoint, and the team did a fantastic job. And I know -- also know, we all have a relentless drive to improve, so we'll continue to work as a team to make Chord an even stronger company for all of our stakeholders. We're proud of a great third quarter, excited about the setup for the remainder of 2023 and plans for 2024 and beyond.

謝謝，勞拉。最後，我只想感謝 Chord 員工對我們公司的承諾和奉獻。從執行的角度來看，這是一個非常強勁的季度，團隊做得非常出色。我知道，也知道，我們都有不懈的進步動力，因此我們將繼續作為一個團隊努力工作，使 Chord 成為一家對所有利益相關者更強大的公司。我們對第三季的出色表現感到自豪，對 2023 年剩餘時間的安排以及 2024 年及以後的計劃感到興奮。

And with that, thanks to everyone for joining our call.

在此，感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。