Chemed Corp (CHE) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Chemed Corporation's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加 Chemed Corporation 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Holley Schmidt. You may begin.

現在我想將會議交給 Holley Schmidt。你可以開始了。

Good morning. Our conference call this morning will review the financial results for the second quarter of 2025 ended June 30, 2025.

早安.我們今天早上的電話會議將回顧截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的 2025 年第二季的財務表現。

Before we begin, let me remind you that the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 apply to this conference call. During the course of this call, the company will make various remarks concerning management's expectations, predictions, plans and prospects that constitute forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，請容我提醒您，1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款適用於本次電話會議。在本次電話會議期間，本公司將就管理層的期望、預測、計劃和前景發表各種評論，這些評論構成前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially from those projected by these forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those identified in the company's news release of July 29 and in various other filings with the SEC. You are cautioned that any forward-looking statements reflect management's current view only and that the company undertakes no obligation to revise or update such statements in the future.

由於多種因素，包括公司 7 月 29 日的新聞稿和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他各種文件中確定的因素，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述預測的結果有重大差異。請注意，任何前瞻性陳述僅反映管理層目前的觀點，本公司不承擔將來修改或更新此類陳述的義務。

In addition, management may also discuss non-GAAP operating performance results during today's call including earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization or EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP results is provided in the company's press release dated July 29, which is available on the company's website at chemed.com.

此外，管理階層也可能在今天的電話會議上討論非公認會計準則經營績效結果，包括息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）和調整後EBITDA。這些非 GAAP 結果的對帳表已在公司 7 月 29 日發布的新聞稿中提供，可在公司網站 chemed.com 上查閱。

I would now like to introduce our speakers for today, Kevin McNamara, President and Chief Executive Officer of Chemed Corporation; and Mike Witzeman, Chief Financial Officer of Chemed.

現在，我想介紹今天的演講者，Chemed Corporation 總裁兼執行長 Kevin McNamara 和 Chemed 財務長 Mike Witzeman。

I will now turn the call over to Kevin McNamara.

現在我將電話轉給凱文·麥克納馬拉。

Thank you, Holley. Good morning. Welcome to Chemed Corporation's Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call. I will begin with highlights for the quarter, then Mike will follow up with additional details. I will then open the call for questions.

謝謝你，霍莉。早安.歡迎參加 Chemed Corporation 2025 年第二季電話會議。我將首先介紹本季的亮點，然後 Mike 將介紹更多細節。然後我將開始提問。

While the performance of both operating units did not meet our expectations in the second quarter of 2025, we remain confident in the overall fundamentals, growth potential and strategic direction of both businesses. Admissions at VITAS during the quarter totaled 17,545, which equates to a 1.2% improvement from the same period of 2024.

儘管兩個營運部門的業績在 2025 年第二季均未達到我們的預期，但我們對兩個業務的整體基本面、成長潛力和策略方向仍然充滿信心。本季 VITAS 的入院人數總計 17,545 人次，比 2024 年同期增加了 1.2%。

However, it is important to remember that over 600 patients transferred into VITAS in the second quarter of 2024 as a result of our April 2024 acquisition of Covenant Health including those transfers admissions increased 4.9% in the second quarter of 2025. Our average daily census or ADC, expanded to 22,318, an increase of 6.1% when compared to the prior year quarter. In the quarter, Hospital directed admissions increased 9.1%.

然而，重要的是要記住，由於我們在 2024 年 4 月收購了 Covenant Health，2024 年第二季度有超過 600 名患者轉入 VITAS，包括這些轉入的患者，2025 年第二季的入院人數增加了 4.9%。我們的平均每日人口普查人數或 ADC 擴大到 22,318，與去年同期相比增加了 6.1%。本季，醫院直接入院人數增加了 9.1%。

Homebase patient admissions declined 6.2%. Nursing home admissions declined 2.9% and assisted living facilities admissions declined 1.4% when compared to the prior year period. We currently estimate that the consolidated Florida program will end the 2025 Medicare cap year with a $19 million billing limitation.

Homebase 病患入院率下降了 6.2%。與去年同期相比，療養院入院人數下降了 2.9%，輔助生活設施入院人數下降了 1.4%。我們目前估計，合併後的佛羅裡達州計劃將在 2025 年結束時將醫療保險上限設定為 1,900 萬美元。

As was discussed in our June 27 press release, we were on track to mitigate the Florida Medicare billing limitation risk as of the end of the first quarter of 2025. Admissions in Florida were weaker than anticipated in April and May.

正如我們在 6 月 27 日的新聞稿中所討論的那樣，截至 2025 年第一季末，我們有望減輕佛羅裡達州醫療保險帳單限制風險。4 月和 5 月佛羅裡達州的入學人數低於預期。

Accordingly, our Medicare cap projection was revised. June and July admissions in Florida are within our expected range, but will that be enough to offset the overall billing limitation for the 2025 cap year. Management does not expect a significant level of Medicare cap billing limitation in our Florida program for the 2026 cap year.

因此，我們對醫療保險上限預測進行了修改。佛羅裡達州 6 月和 7 月的入院人數在我們的預期範圍內，但這是否足以抵消 2025 年上限年度的總體收費限制。管理層並不期望我們的佛羅裡達州計劃在 2026 年上限年度出現顯著的醫療保險上限計費限制。

There are a number of initiatives underway that contribute to that expectation, including continued efforts on admitting short-stay patients, mainly through higher hospital admissions, quick ramp-up of the CON start-up locations in Merian and Pinellas counties and other management strategies. The current projection for the 2026 cap year assumes that the rate differential that occurred for the 2025 cap year does not recur.

目前正在進行的多項措施有助於實現這一預期，包括繼續努力接收短期住院患者，主要透過提高住院人數、快速擴大梅里安縣和皮內拉斯縣的 CON 啟動地點以及其他管理策略。目前 2026 年上限年度的預測假設 2025 年上限年度出現的利率差異不會再出現。

The detailed rate information related to the reimbursement increase in Florida for the 2026 cap year will become available during the third quarter. We intend to update our assumptions regarding rates and overall outlook for the 2026 Medicare cap year in Florida in the third quarter earnings release.

有關佛羅裡達州 2026 年上限年度報銷增加的詳細費率資訊將於第三季公佈。我們打算在第三季財報中更新有關佛羅裡達州 2026 年醫療保險上限年度的費率和整體前景的假設。

Now let's turn to Roto-Rooter. Roto-Rooter revenue increased 0.6% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period of 2024, falling short of our internal expectations. Branch revenue, in particular, was softer than anticipated, with less than a 1% growth compared to the prior year.

現在讓我們轉向 Roto-Rooter。Roto-Rooter 2025 年第二季的營收與 2024 年同期相比成長了 0.6%，低於我們的內部預期。尤其是分行收入，低於預期，與上年相比增幅不到 1%。

We continue to execute on the strategies implemented in 2024 that resulted in improved fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 revenue trends. Despite these efforts, April and May were particularly weak.

我們繼續執行 2024 年實施的策略，從而改善了 2024 年第四季和 2025 年第一季的營收趨勢。儘管做出了這些努力，但四月和五月的表現仍然特別疲軟。

Other large consumer-facing companies have discussed the chilling effect that the liberation date tariff announcement had on consumer confidence and consumer spending in April and May. We believe that Roto-Rooter suffered from that issue as well. June and July residential revenue has rebounded to a level that is much closer to our internal expectations.

其他面向消費者的大型公司也討論了解放日關稅公告對 4 月和 5 月消費者信心和消費者支出產生的寒蟬效應。我們相信 Roto-Rooter 也遭遇了這個問題。6月和7月住宅收入已反彈至更接近我們內部預期的水平。

Total leads were down 7.2% in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the same period of 2024. This is a slight improvement compared to the trend we saw in the first quarter of 2025. While the second quarter of 2025 resulted in disappointing operating results, we remain optimistic about the overall prospects for both businesses.

2025 年第二季度，總銷售線索數量與 2024 年同期相比下降了 7.2%。與我們在 2025 年第一季看到的趨勢相比，這略有改善。儘管 2025 年第二季的經營業績令人失望，但我們對兩家企業的整體前景仍然持樂觀態度。

VITAS is in the process of adjusting their patient mix in Florida to ensure Medicare CapEx do not persist past 2025. This will cause some disruption in VITAS' operating metrics, but positions them to return to a consistent higher growth rate for the long term.

VITAS 正在調整其在佛羅裡達州的病患結構，以確保醫療保險資本支出不會持續到 2025 年以後。這將對 VITAS 的營運指標造成一些幹擾，但會使其長期內恢復到穩定的較高成長率。

Roto-Rooter remains the most recognized brand in the plumbing and drain cleaning industry. We remain confident that the competitive advantages enjoyed by Roto-Rooter will return its financial performance to a steadier growth trajectory.

Roto-Rooter 仍然是管道和排水清潔行業最知名的品牌。我們堅信，Roto-Rooter 所享有的競爭優勢將使其財務表現重回更穩定的成長軌道。

With that, I would like to turn the teleconference over to Mike.

說完這些，我想把電話會議交給麥克。

Thank you, Kevin. VITAS net revenue was $396.2 million in the second quarter of 2025, which is an increase of 5.8% when compared to the prior year period. This revenue increase is comprised primarily of a 6.1% increase in days of care and a geographically weighted average Medicare reimbursement rate increase of approximately 4.2%.

謝謝你，凱文。2025 年第二季度，VITAS 淨收入為 3.962 億美元，年增 5.8%。收入成長主要包括照護天數增加 6.1% 以及按地區加權的平均醫療保險報銷率增加約 4.2%。

The acuity mix shift negatively impacted revenue growth, 71 basis points in the quarter when compared to the prior year revenue and level of care mix. The combination of Medicare Cap and other contra revenue changes negatively impacted revenue growth by approximately 379 basis points.

敏銳度組合的轉變對收入成長產生了負面影響，與去年同期的收入和護理水平組合相比，本季下降了 71 個基點。醫療保險上限和其他對銷收入變化的結合對收入成長產生了約 379 個基點的負面影響。

The $16.4 million Medicare Cap billing limitation accrued in the second quarter of 2025 is comprised of three components. First, a catch-up entry of $9.5 million was required to recognize the Medicare Cap billing limitation in Florida related to the first six months of the 2025 Medicare Cap year which includes our fourth quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025.

2025 年第二季累計的 1,640 萬美元 Medicare Cap 帳單限額由三個部分組成。首先，需要補繳 950 萬美元，以確認佛羅裡達州與 2025 年醫療保險上限年度前六個月（包括 2024 年第四季和 2025 年第一季）相關的醫療保險上限帳單限制。

Second, $4.8 million was recorded related to the Medicare Cap billing limitation for the current quarter of 2025 related to our Florida combined program. Third, $2.1 million was recognized for the current quarter of 2025 related to all other VITAS programs, mainly in California. The amount recognized for all other VITAS programs is in line with the historical run rate for these programs and our original projections for 2025.

其次，我們記錄了與 2025 年本季佛羅裡達州綜合計劃相關的 Medicare Cap 帳單限制相關的 480 萬美元。第三，2025 年本季確認的與所有其他 VITAS 項目相關的資金為 210 萬美元，主要在加州。所有其他 VITAS 計劃確認的金額與這些計劃的歷史運行率以及我們對 2025 年的最初預測一致。

Average revenue per patient per day in the second quarter of 2025 was $207.3 which is 350 basis points above the prior year period. During the quarter, high acuity days of care were 2.5% of total days of care, a decline of 15 basis points compared to the prior year quarter.

2025 年第二季每位患者每天的平均收入為 207.3 美元，比去年同期高出 350 個基點。本季度，高危險群照護天數佔總照護天數的 2.5%，與去年同期相比下降了 15 個基點。

Average length of study in the quarter was 137.1 days. This compares to 100.6 days in the second quarter of 2024. It is important to remember that length of stay statistics are calculated based on discharged patients not active patients.

本季平均學習時間為137.1天。相比之下，2024 年第二季為 100.6 天。重要的是要記住，住院時間統計數據是根據出院患者而不是活躍患者計算的。

This increase in average length of stay between quarters represents the effect of the patients admitted during our community access initiative, which was designed to identify appropriate patients earlier in their disease trajectory being discharged. Our median length of stay was 20 days in the same quarter of 2025 compared to 18 days in the same period of '24.

季度間平均住院日數的增加反映了我們在社區就診計劃中接收患者的影響，該計劃旨在在患者病情發展早期識別出適合出院的患者。2025 年同一季度，我們的中位數住院時間為 20 天，而 2024 年同期為 18 天。

Adjusted EBITDA, excluding Medicare Cap, totaled $66.8 million in the quarter, which is essentially flat with the second quarter of '24. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter, excluding Medicare Cap, was 16.2%, which is 163 basis points below the prior year period. The lower EBITDA margin in the quarter reflects the impact of admitting more short-stay patients.

本季調整後的 EBITDA（不包括 Medicare Cap）總計 6,680 萬美元，與 24 年第二季基本持平。本季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率（不包括 Medicare Cap）為 16.2%，比去年同期低 163 個基點。本季較低的 EBITDA 利潤率反映了接收更多短期住院患者的影響。

While this is the right thing to do to mitigate Medicare cap billing limitations, it has the effect of slowing revenue growth and reducing overall margin. VITAS management is currently reviewing expenses at all levels of the organization to reduce costs wherever possible to help offset the lower EBITDA margin. Now let's turn to Roto-Rooter.

雖然這是緩解醫療保險上限計費限制的正確做法，但它會減緩收入成長並降低整體利潤率。VITAS 管理層目前正在審查組織各個層面的開支，盡可能降低成本，以幫助抵消較低的 EBITDA 利潤率。現在讓我們轉向 Roto-Rooter。

Roto-Rooter branch residential revenue in the quarter totaled $156.4 million, an increase of 0.9% from the prior year period. The residential revenue increase was driven by a 16.9% increase in water restoration, offset by declines in drain cleaning, plumbing and excavation revenue.

Roto-Rooter 分行本季住宅收入總計 1.564 億美元，比去年同期成長 0.9%。住宅收入的成長是由於水資源修復收入增加了16.9%，但被排水清潔、管道和挖掘收入的下降所抵消。

Roto-Rooter branch commercial revenue in the quarter totaled $53.2 million, an increase of 4.4% from the prior year. The commercial revenue increase was driven by a 24.4% increase in excavation and an 11.7% increase in water restoration, offset by slight declines in plumbing and drain cleaning revenue.

Roto-Rooter 分行本季商業收入總計 5,320 萬美元，較上年增長 4.4%。商業收入的成長得益於挖掘量增加 24.4% 和水資源恢復量增加 11.7%，但管道和排水清潔收入略有下降，抵消了這一增長。

Revenue from our independent contractors declined 4.4% in the second quarter of '25 as compared to the same period of 2024. Our independent contractors are generally smaller operations in middle-market cities. In most instances, they do not have the capability to perform the add-on business that is currently the primary driver of revenue growth at Roto-Rooter branches.

與 2024 年同期相比，2025 年第二季來自我們獨立承包商的收入下降了 4.4%。我們的獨立承包商一般都是中型城市規模較小的企業。在大多數情況下，他們沒有能力開展目前是 Roto-Rooter 分公司收入成長的主要驅動力的附加業務。

Adjusted EBITDA at Roto-Rooter in the second quarter of 2025 totaled $48.6 million, a decrease of 18.7% compared to the prior year quarter. The adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter was 21.8%. The second quarter adjusted EBITDA margin represents a 517 basis point decline from the second quarter of 2024.

Roto-Rooter 2025 年第二季的調整後 EBITDA 總計 4,860 萬美元，與去年同期相比下降 18.7%。本季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 21.8%。第二季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率較 2024 年第二季下降 517 個基點。

The EBITDA and EBITDA margin decline was the result of a number of factors. Based on the improved revenue results seen in late '24 and early 2025, Roto-Rooter began to selectively increase its productive workforce in certain high-performing branches.

EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率的下降是多種因素造成的。根據 2024 年末和 2025 年初收入績效的改善，Roto-Rooter 開始有選擇地增加某些高績效分支機構的生產性勞動力。

With the sudden weakness in residential revenue seen in April and May, margins suffered from inefficiencies within the labor force, technicians were sitting idle more than expected. This has a few effects in addition to the impact of inefficient labor use.

由於 4 月和 5 月居民收入突然疲軟，勞動力效率低下導致利潤率受到影響，技術人員閒置的時間比預期的多。除了勞動力使用效率低下的影響之外，這還會產生一些影響。

First, when a technician knows they may only have one or two opportunities for commission on a daily basis, they are more likely to provide discounts to secure the paying job. Second, Roto-Rooter routes jobs to its highest performing technicians first. The highest performing technicians generally have higher commission rates.

首先，當技術人員知道他們每天可能只有一到兩次獲得佣金的機會時，他們更有可能提供折扣以確保獲得付費工作。其次，Roto-Rooter 首先將工作分配給表現最好的技術人員。表現最好的技術人員通常有較高的佣金率。

As a result, commissions as a percent of total revenue were higher than they have historically run. These issues should moderate as revenue rebounds in the third quarter. Higher casualty and workers' compensation costs negatively impacted margins by approximately 220 basis points due mainly to actuarial estimates, assuming significantly increasing costs of settling claims.

因此，佣金佔總收入的百分比高於歷史水準。隨著第三季營收反彈，這些問題應該會得到緩解。較高的傷亡和工人賠償成本對利潤率產生了約 220 個基點的負面影響，主要原因是精算估計假設解決索賠的成本大幅增加。

Finally, as discussed in prior quarters, our cost per click for Internet marketing leads has continued to decline. However, a much greater percentage of our leads are currently coming from paid searches as compared to unpaid searches.

最後，正如前幾季所討論的，我們的網路行銷線索每次點擊成本持續下降。然而，目前我們的潛在客戶中有很大一部分來自付費搜索，而不是免費搜尋。

Paid searches in the second quarter of 2025 represent over 50% of all leads during the quarter. Paid searches have historically represented closer to 40% of all leads. This has the effect of increasing costs as a percentage of revenue for our Internet marketing program.

2025 年第二季的付費搜尋佔該季度所有潛在客戶的 50% 以上。從歷史上看，付費搜尋佔所有潛在客戶的近 40%。這會導致我們的網路行銷計劃的成本佔收入的百分比增加。

Roto-Rooter management is also reviewing expenses at all levels of the organization to reduce costs wherever possible, to help improve EBITDA margins going forward. Now let's turn to the revised guidance for the remainder of 2025.

Roto-Rooter 管理層也正在審查組織各個層面的開支，盡可能降低成本，以幫助提高未來的 EBITDA 利潤率。現在讓我們來看看 2025 年剩餘時間的修訂指南。

VITAS full year 2025 revenue prior to Medicare Cap is estimated to increase 7.5% to 8.5% when compared to 2024. Full year adjusted EBITDA margin prior to Medicare Cap is estimated to be 18.2% to 18.7%. We are currently estimating $28.2 million in Medicare Cap billing limitations in calendar 2025.

與 2024 年相比，預計 Medicare Cap 之前的 2025 年全年收入將增長 7.5% 至 8.5%。預計醫療保險上限之前的全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 18.2% 至 18.7%。我們目前估計 2025 年 Medicare Cap 帳單限額為 2,820 萬美元。

This is comprised of $19 million related to the Florida combined program and $9.2 million for all other VITAS programs. There's no Medicare cap billing limitation in the fourth quarter included in the guidance related to the Florida combined program.

其中包括與佛羅裡達州綜合計劃相關的 1900 萬美元和用於所有其他 VITAS 計劃的 920 萬美元。佛羅裡達州綜合計劃相關指南中並未包含第四季度醫療保險上限計費限制。

This expectation assumes that the rate differential that occurred for the 2025 cap year does not recur in 2026. The detailed rate information related to the reimbursement increase in Florida for 2026 will become available during the third quarter.

該預期假設 2025 年上限年度出現的利率差異不會在 2026 年再次出現。有關佛羅裡達州 2026 年報銷增加的詳細費率資訊將於第三季公佈。

We intend to update our assumptions regarding rates and the overall outlook for the 2026 Medicare Cap in Florida in the third quarter earnings release. Roto-Rooter is forecasted to have a 1.25% to 1.75% revenue increase in 2025 compared to 2024. Roto-Rooter's adjusted EBITDA margin for 2025 is expected to be 23.5% to 24.5%.

我們打算在第三季財報中更新有關佛羅裡達州 2026 年醫療保險上限的費率和整體前景的假設。預計 2025 年 Roto-Rooter 的營收將比 2024 年成長 1.25% 至 1.75%。Roto-Rooter 2025 年的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計為 23.5% 至 24.5%。

Based on the above, full year 2025 earnings per diluted share, excluding noncash expense for stock options, tax benefits from stock option exercises costs related to litigation and other discrete items, is estimated to be in the range of $22 to $22.30.

基於上述情況，2025 年全年每股攤薄收益（不包括股票選擇權的非現金費用、與訴訟相關的股票選擇權行使成本的稅收優惠和其他單獨項目）預計在 22 美元至 22.30 美元之間。

This guidance assumes an effective tax rate of 25.3% and a diluted share count of 14.7 million shares. Chemed's previously issued 2025 guidance range was $24.95 to $25.45. Chemed's 2024 reported adjusted earnings per diluted share was $23.13.

該指引假設有效稅率為 25.3%，稀釋股數為 1,470 萬股。Chemed 先前發布的 2025 年業績指引區間為 24.95 美元至 25.45 美元。 Chemed 報告的 2024 年調整後每股攤薄收益為 23.13 美元。

I will now turn this call back over to Kevin.

現在我將把這通電話轉回給凱文。

Thank you, Mike. I will now open this teleconference to questions.

謝謝你，麥克。現在我將開始本次電話會議並回答大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Brian Tanquilut, Jefferies.

（操作員指示） Brian Tanquilut，Jefferies。

Maybe my first question, as I think about your comments on the cap, right? It sounds like we shouldn't see any impact or carryover of that after Q3. So if you can walk us through the levers you're pulling to ensure that, that happens. And then maybe how you're thinking about the carryover impact of that in 2026 with margins and the growth rate and VITAS revenues?

也許我的第一個問題是，當我考慮你對上限的評論時，對嗎？聽起來我們在第三季之後不會看到任何影響或延續。因此，如果您可以向我們介紹為確保實現這一目標所採取的措施，那將會發生。那麼，您可能如何考慮這對 2026 年的利潤率、成長率和 VITAS 收入的延續影響？

Mike, why don't you start with some of the technical aspects.

麥克，你為什麼不從一些技術方面開始呢？

Sure. So from a leverage standpoint, we're still emphasizing hospital admissions, long -- short stay patients over long-stay patients. That's, I think, job number one in the levers we're pulling.

當然。因此，從槓桿的角度來看，我們仍然強調住院治療，長期住院患者——短期住院患者比長期住院患者更受重視。我認為，這是我們採取的措施中的首要任務。

I think the other thing to keep in mind is the community access program that we ran in 2022, 2023 and some part of 2024 has created a bubble of long-stay patients. And those patients will just by definition of what we do, will attrit over time.

我認為另一件需要記住的事情是，我們在 2022 年、2023 年和 2024 年部分時間運行的社區訪問計劃已經創造了長期住院患者的泡沫。而這些病人，就像我們所做的事情一樣，會隨著時間的推移而逐漸減少。

So that bubble is going to moderate just with the passage of time as well. So I think shorter-stay patients, I think the moderation of the bubble we essentially created with the community access program will certainly help over time.

因此，隨著時間的推移，泡沫也會逐漸消退。因此，我認為對於住院時間較短的患者來說，我們透過社區訪問計畫創建的泡沫的緩和肯定會隨著時間的推移有所幫助。

As far as EBITDA margins, I think, probably -- and we haven't put pen to paper, so I'm speculating a little bit, but they're going to be below, say, what we were in 2024, which is a little over 19%. Farm guessing and again, we haven't really put pen to paper, but I would suggest maybe 17.5% to 18.5% is probably a pretty good range for '26. But again, we're coming up with those numbers as we speak.

就 EBITDA 利潤率而言，我認為，可能——我們還沒有動筆，所以我只是稍微推測一下，但它將低於 2024 年的水平，即略高於 19%。農場猜測，而且我們還沒有真正付諸行動，但我認為也許 17.5% 到 18.5% 可能是 26 年的一個相當不錯的範圍。但同樣，我們剛才也提到了這些數字。

I'd just like to just reiterate some of the things Mike said that with regard to why it was that we have a cap problem this year. I mean it started with the fact that the natural rate for hospitals went up approximately a little over 2% last year. That's what the cap limitation Capco's percentage goes up to that number, okay?

我只是想重申一下麥克所說的一些關於我們今年為何面臨上限問題的事情。我的意思是，這始於去年醫院的自然率上漲了約 2% 多一點。這就是上限限制 Capco 的百分比上升到該數字，好嗎？

So that differential I said 2%, 2% delta, we got 5% in Florida that 2% is about $22 million. In other words, we started the year with the fact that the same -- the base of reimbursement, we were currently getting that was going to be $22 million higher than the cap limitation that we're going to face in the cap year.

所以我說的差異是 2%，2% 的增量，我們在佛羅裡達州得到了 5%，這 2% 大約是 2200 萬美元。換句話說，我們年初時的事實是，我們目前獲得的報銷基數將比我們在上限年度將面臨的上限限制高出 2200 萬美元。

We started the last year 2024, with about a cushion of about $15 million, a little over $15 million. So we said, okay, we've got to make some -- we have to make some changes. And it turns out that we're on power to make those changes.

我們從 2024 年開始，大約有 1500 萬美元的緩衝資金，略高於 1500 萬美元。所以我們說，好吧，我們必須做出一些——我們必須做出一些改變。事實證明，我們有能力實現這些改變。

Two terrible months with regard to admissions for whatever reason, occurred in April and May. That was enough to knock us off the trend that we were on and again, given the fact that we were starting with approximately $22 million holding it out of, that explains why 2025 is so unusual.

四月和五月是招生情況最差的兩個月份，無論出於何種原因。這足以讓我們擺脫先前的趨勢，而且，考慮到我們一開始就持有約 2,200 萬美元，這也解釋了為什麼 2025 年如此不尋常。

And the other point that I was going to make with regard to this bubble of patients that we're going through. The bubble is getting smaller at this point. But I mean, I think, and this is going into something very subjective. But during the pandemic, we saw a change in that in the type of -- we're talking about super elderly patients. A lot of those super elderly patients with COVID parished, okay?

我要提出的另一點與我們正在經歷的患者泡沫有關。此時泡沫正在變得越來越小。但我的意思是，我認為這是一個非常主觀的事情。但在疫情期間，我們看到了這種情況的變化——我們說的是超級老年患者。許多感染新冠肺炎的超高齡患者都過世了，好嗎？

The ones that came out the other end were a little bit harder, okay, and tended to have for us, a very long look as say, our average length of stay went up substantially, particularly in Florida. Those conditions are abating. So I mean, that's -- that's -- those are two significant levers.

而另一端的結果則有點困難，好吧，對我們來說，這往往是一個很長的過程，比如說，我們的平均停留時間大幅增加，特別是在佛羅裡達州。這些情況正在減輕。所以我的意思是，那是——那是——兩個重要的槓桿。

But the other thing is not to be discounted is something that VITAS is spending night and day working on is getting a good running start on the new CON property -- properties for our programs. And again, I think that, that's -- that should -- that almost a loan is enough to carry the day.

但另一個不容忽視的事情是，VITAS 正在日以繼夜地努力，為新的 CON 屬性（我們程式的屬性）取得良好的開端。而且，我再次認為，這應該——幾乎一筆貸款就足以解決這個問題。

But be that as it may. Yes, we are very confident that, I don't know run rate basis, we're not looking at any projected surplus that we put it that way. I would also say that we've always been attuned to cap in Florida, but we've never had a cap in Florida.

但不管怎樣。是的，我們非常有信心，我不知道運行率基礎，我們沒有考慮任何預期的盈餘。我還想說，我們一直在關注佛羅裡達州的上限，但我們在佛羅裡達州從來沒有上限。

So I mean, yes, the organization starting at the Chemed level is -- has changed its orientation and its attention levels to this issue, and we're confident we will keep it under control. I mean in other words, internally, we say, it's 19 going to 0, not 19 going to 40. We're pretty confident on that.

所以我的意思是，是的，從 Chemed 層級開始的組織已經改變了對這個問題的方向和關注程度，我們有信心我們會控制它。換句話說，在內部，我們說的是 19 會變成 0，而不是 19 會變成 40。我們對此非常有信心。

That makes sense. Maybe, Kevin, just to follow up on that comment you made about the COVID impact. I mean is that you think what's driving the relative underperformed there have been like a strength below average on admissions.

這很有道理。凱文，也許只是為了跟進你對 COVID 影響的評論。我的意思是，您認為導致相對錶現不佳的原因在於招生強度低於平均水準。

I mean, 4.9 pretty good number but still below trend. Just curious what your thoughts are. I mean is that just the flow-through of hospital admissions being soft as we look at the HCAs and tenants of the world putting up lower admission --

我的意思是，4.9 是一個相當不錯的數字，但仍然低於趨勢。只是好奇你的想法是什麼。我的意思是，當我們看看世界各地的 HCA 和租戶提供的較低入院率時，醫院入院率是否只是疲軟--

Well, I think it's powerful. But I think the biggest issue in that is, remember, all of Florida, basically all of Florida averaged this 5% increase for this plan year. That put pressure on hospitals everywhere in Florida to avoid a cap. Okay? Some of the dynamics for attracting particularly short-stay patients changed.

嗯，我認為它很強大。但我認為其中最大的問題是，請記住，整個佛羅裡達州，基本上整個佛羅裡達州在該計劃年度的平均增幅都達到了 5%。這給佛羅裡達州各地的醫院帶來了壓力，迫使它們避免出現限額。好的？吸引短期住院患者的一些動機發生了變化。

So here it is, the answer to your question is, why do we -- why is it 4.9 instead of 6.0 as part of increase. You might say, well, a little bit harder to fight on the short-stay patients.

所以，你的問題的答案是，為什麼——為什麼增加的是 4.9 而不是 6.0。你可能會說，嗯，爭取短期住院的病人有點困難。

And again, we're -- we don't have the community access orientation, we're not pushing to -- we could admit a lot more patients and have a lot more revenue. But the number one thing we're trying to avoid is providing service for free and not giving any reimbursement.

再說一次，我們沒有社區進入導向，我們也沒有努力接收更多的病人，從而獲得更多的收入。但我們最想避免的是免費提供服務而不給予任何補償。

I think the proof in the pudding is that, as Kevin made in his prepared remarks, hospital admissions in the quarter were up over 9%. The thing that brings that down is that we are emitting fewer patients from all the long-stay preadmission locations like ALS. And that's intentional for the Medicare Cap.

我認為事實就是如此，正如凱文在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，本季的住院人數增加了 9% 以上。導致這一數字下降的原因是，我們從所有長期住院前場所（如 ALS）接出的患者數量正在減少。這對於醫療保險上限來說是有意為之。

So in total, in aggregate, you're right, the 4.9 is a little bit less than the admissions we've had in the past. But there's some intentionality to that because the hospital admissions are the ones we're really focused on and we have to take in fewer admissions from those long stay things to rightsize the patient mix in our portfolio in Florida.

所以總的來說，您說得對，4.9 比我們過去的錄取人數要少一點。但這有一定的意圖，因為我們真正關注的是醫院的入院情況，我們必須減少長期住院患者的入院人數，以調整我們在佛羅裡達州的患者組合。

Ben Hendrix, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Ben Hendrix。

I appreciate the commentary around those post-COVID demographic factors that point to a more stable cap environment next year. But I want to talk a little bit about assumption you made for 4Q this year and in the next about the spread between the wage adjusted or wage index rates and the cap and your assumption that, that doesn't persist.

我很欣賞有關後疫情時代人口因素的評論，這些因素表明明年的資本環境將更加穩定。但我想談談您對今年第四季和下一季的假設，即薪資調整後或薪資指數率與上限之間的差距，以及您的假設，即這種差距不會持續存在。

Can you talk a little bit about how you're thinking about that ahead of the final rate and what's informing your view that, that might not persist?

您能否談談在最終利率確定之前您是如何考慮這個問題的，以及您認為這種情況可能不會持續下去的原因是什麼？

Here, but let me start by saying, it's a good thing if it's higher, okay? As far as we're concerned, we want it to be as high as possible, okay? We will manage the business as though it was the same as the national average. In other words, if it comes in at 5%. And I mean, if the national average comes in at 2.1%, this comes at 4.1% for Florida.

在這裡，但首先我要說的是，如果它更高，那是一件好事，好嗎？就我們而言，我們希望它盡可能高，好嗎？我們將按照與全國平均相同的方式管理業務。換句話說，如果利率達到 5%。我的意思是，如果全國平均為 2.1%，那麼佛羅裡達州的平均為 4.1%。

That would be a good thing. Okay. We would -- all we're saying that probably the first month or the first quarter, the first number you'll see will probably assume that there'll be cap in Florida equal to that difference but we will manage the business as though we were just getting a 2.1% increase. In other words, we've had it in the sense of reserve, okay? We would reserve anything over that national average.

那將是一件好事。好的。我們會 — — 我們所說的可能是第一個月或第一季度，您看到的第一個數字可能會假設佛羅裡達州的上限等於該差額，但我們會像管理 2.1% 的增長一樣管理業務。換句話說，我們已經有儲備了，好嗎？我們將保留任何超過全國平均水平的東西。

And to the extent the admissions then, in fact, came in okay? They would all fall to the bottom line. I mean it was -- it would -- but we wouldn't get in the position we're in this year, which is being dependent on a continuation of a positive trend, for instance. I mean, so it's a good thing if it's higher. And the answer to your question, I think it will be a little bit higher, okay?

那麼，事實上，錄取結果如何？他們都會跌到底線。我的意思是，它是 — — 它將 — — 但我們不會處於今年的境地，例如，這取決於積極趨勢的延續。我的意思是，如果它更高的話，這是一件好事。對於你的問題的答案，我認為它會稍微高一點，好嗎？

Just because you look at the factors that we look at that are informative on a prediction of rate suggests that Florida is higher than the national average. So -- but it will be a good hire, but we'll manage differently this year than last year. Does that make sense?

僅僅因為你看一下我們所考慮的對利率預測有幫助的因素就表明佛羅裡達州的利率高於全國平均水平。所以——但這將是一個很好的聘用，但今年我們的管理方式與去年有所不同。這樣有道理嗎？

Absolutely. That's very helpful. I appreciate that color. On the Roto-Rooter side, I think you noticed in your mentioned in recent quarters that -- there were some local management issues at some of the locations that had driven some weakness. So I was just wondering if there's any linkage between efforts you've made or initiatives you have at the local management level and some of the recovery you've seen in June and July?

絕對地。這非常有幫助。我很欣賞那個顏色。在 Roto-Rooter 方面，我想您在最近幾季提到中註意到——一些地點存在一些當地管理問題，導致了一些疲軟。所以我只是想知道，您在當地管理層所做的努力或採取的舉措與您在六月和七月看到的一些復甦之間是否存在某種聯繫？

I don't think -- I think we're pretty much past the management issues that we've talked about in the past. I think a lot of those were caused by people, particularly private equities poaching some of our management, not only general managers, but also the next level down where we have water restoration managers. I think that's pretty much abated.

我不認為——我認為我們已經基本解決了過去討論過的管理問題。我認為其中許多都是由人為因素造成的，特別是私募股權挖走了我們的一些管理人員，不僅是總經理，還包括下一級的水資源恢復經理。我認為這種情況已經大大減輕了。

I do think that, in general, if you look at our management team in the field, not at the corporate level but at the field, it's probably the 10 year is a lot less than it would have been, say, pre-pandemic. But I don't think -- I think we're past that now.

我確實認為，總的來說，如果你看看我們現場的管理團隊，不是在公司層面，而是在現場，那麼這 10 年可能比疫情之前少了很多。但我不認為——我認為我們現在已經度過了那個階段。

There's always going to be we have 51 branches, all with general managers, all with excavation managers. There's always going to be a subset of those that are going to be on some performance improvement plan, but I think we're more in a normal cycle as it relates to managers. So I don't think that's a huge factor.

我們有 51 個分支機構，每個分支機構都有總經理，都有挖掘經理。總是會有一小部分人會參與一些績效改進計劃，但我認為，就管理人員而言，我們更處於正常的周期中。所以我不認為這是一個重要因素。

No, I would say if I was to summarize, just to think of a remedy in the hopes to answer your question, if I saw two issues currently at Roto-Rooter, they'd be -- and they're not small. The small one is that what Mike mentioned is we had a new insurance program for basically general casualty last year.

不，我想說，如果我要總結一下，只是想到一個補救措施，希望能回答你的問題，如果我看到 Roto-Rooter 目前存在兩個問題，那麼它們就是——而且它們並不小。小一點的是，正如麥克所提到的，我們去年推出了一項針對一般傷亡的新保險計劃。

I mean it was also covered workers' comp and whatnot. But Roto-Rooter costs tend to go higher as revenue goes down, employees are more likely to take time off for injuries, that type of thing. And that was a little bit higher than -- it's usually a credit for us because we're pretty conservative in our accounting for that.

我的意思是它還涵蓋了工人補償等等。但隨著收入的下降，Roto-Rooter 的成本往往會上升，員工更有可能因受傷而請假，諸如此類的事情。這比——通常對我們來說，這算是一種信用，因為我們對此的會計處理相當保守。

So it's usually a credit when they did the -- and on the casualty side, we had -- it came as a surprise because when you look at the number of car accidents and the severity of car accidents -- they were reduced. They were lower than the expectation.

因此，當他們這樣做時，通常是一種讚揚——而在傷亡方面，我們有——這是一個驚喜，因為當你看到車禍的數量和車禍的嚴重程度時——它們減少了。它們低於預期。

So you might say, when we expected the outside firm to analyze our exposure given the fact that there were some differences in our ultimate coverage for those assets. We expect a credit, it came out to a big negative was half of our decline a bit the margin Roto-Rooter. So do we expect that to recur okay?

所以你可能會說，當我們期望外部公司分析我們的風險敞口時，考慮到我們對這些資產的最終覆蓋範圍存在一些差異。我們期望獲得信貸，但結果卻出現了很大的負面影響，我們的利潤率下降了一半，Roto-Rooter 的利潤率也下降了一點。那麼我們預計這種情況會再次發生嗎？

I mean, we're continuing to work on the safety. And our actual results with regard to the number of accidents and severity is getting better. So I think that -- but that's an issue that rep the second quarter in many respects for Roto-Rooter. Their sales were -- that's tied to the fact that they also had a bad April and May. No question about it.

我的意思是，我們正在繼續致力於安全工作。我們在事故數量和嚴重程度方面的實際結果正在改善。所以我認為——但這對 Roto-Rooter 來說在很多方面都是第二季的一個問題。他們的銷售額——這與四月和五月的糟糕表現有關。毫無疑問。

They're there. But I would put all the other issues at other what's the problem at Roto-Rooter, why is it underperforming? It's not management, it's not the labor force. The labor force has good close rates. We have good retention.

他們就在那兒。但我會把所有其他問題放在 Roto-Rooter 的問題上，為什麼它表現不佳？這不是管理問題，也不是勞動力問題。勞動成交率良好。我們的保留率很好。

I mean, that's -- as Mike said, the outflow of managers, the private equity firms, if anything, is reversing. I mean they're realizing trees don't grow to heaven and they're coming back or attempting to come back, some of the managers.

我的意思是，正如麥克所說，管理人員、私募股權公司的外流正在逆轉。我的意思是，他們意識到樹木不會長到天堂，所以一些管理人員正在回來或試圖回來。

But -- the because issue is the pod is not ringing like it did in the past. And one answer for that and that is that most -- currently, and this is changing. We're in the process of groundbreaking changes with AI and whatnot.

但是——問題是吊艙不再像過去那樣響了。對此的一個答案是，大多數 — — 目前，這種情況正在改變。我們正處於人工智慧等突破性變革的過程中。

But I mean the phone is not ringing as much. We're potential customers go. They go to the Internet, they go to Google. If you were to type in reroute plumbing in Google, before you even see the word Roto-Rooter, there'd be probably four other advertisements for rival plumbing. I mean it's just -- Google does an excellent job monetizing that monopoly position.

但我的意思是電話響得沒那麼頻繁了。我們是潛在客戶。他們上網，他們去谷歌。如果您在 Google 中輸入“重新佈線管道”，在您看到 Roto-Rooter 這個詞之前，可能會出現另外四個競爭對手管道的廣告。我的意思是——谷歌在將壟斷地位貨幣化方面做得非常出色。

It's changing. We're making adjustments to reference that to the fact that we used to get 60% basically. Overall used to get 40% of our calls from paid search. Now it's 50%. And the reason that is because the free ones used to appear on math on the Google entries.

它正在改變。我們正在進行調整，以參考我們過去基本上獲得 60% 的事實。整體而言，我們 40% 的電話來自付費搜尋。現在是50%。原因是免費的曾經出現在 Google 條目的數學上。

We don't appear anymore. They don't -- they're saying, if we can get money for making them pay for advertisers, we'll make sure they don't show up in the free areas. We deal with it. It's a bit of a just for us. I think we ultimately will win that battle.

我們不再出現了。他們沒有——他們說，如果我們可以透過讓他們向廣告商付費來獲得金錢，我們將確保他們不會出現在免費區域。我們會處理它。這對我們來說有點太簡單了。我認為我們最終會贏得這場戰鬥。

We're doing better, I think, at this point, every month, but it all relates to what's the problem with Roto-Rooter phone isn't ringing as much as we'd like it to plan simply. We've got the workforce. We've -- our development of water restoration and the continued refinement of our excavation business.

我認為，目前我們每個月都做得更好，但這一切都與 Roto-Rooter 電話的問題有關，因為該電話的響鈴次數不如我們希望的那麼多。我們有勞動力。我們已經開發了水資源恢復技術並不斷完善了挖掘業務。

I mean, we're as much of an excavation and water restoration businesses as we are plumbing and drain cleaning at some point. I mean it's one business speed to the other, but I mean we -- a lot of our services are of those ancillary services.

我的意思是，我們既從事挖掘和水資源修復業務，也從事管道和排水清潔業務。我的意思是，這是一個業務速度到另一個業務速度，但我的意思是我們——我們的許多服務都是輔助服務。

But we have no worry with regard to long-term persistence of success at Roto-Rooter. A bit of a problem right now. No question about it. We have to say that we've really had some tough issues at Roto-Rooter, but it's not nearly as being on the horizon. Yes, that's off the top of my head, but what's your reaction to that?

但我們並不擔心 Roto-Rooter 能否取得長期成功。現在有點問題。毫無疑問。我們不得不說，Roto-Rooter 確實遇到了一些棘手的問題，但這些問題還沒有完全解決。是的，這是我突然想到的，但是你對此有何反應？

Yes, I would say there's no doubt, as we've talked about in the past, the private equity competition is hurting us, particularly on the drain cleaning and the plumbing side, the number of jobs we do in those two segments are continuing to decline slightly.

是的，我想說毫無疑問，正如我們過去談到的那樣，私募股權競爭正在對我們造成傷害，特別是在排水清潔和管道方面，我們在這兩個領域所做的工作數量正在持續略有下降。

We would love to see those increase. But we're doing everything we can to combat that. And one of the things you see in the results specifically is, as Kevin mentioned, we are doing a much better job at identifying and converting add-on sale opportunities.

我們希望看到這些數字有所增加。但我們正在盡一切努力對抗這種現象。正如凱文所提到的那樣，您在結果中看到的一件事是，我們在識別和轉換附加銷售機會方面做得更好。

So we've really supported the revenue at Roto-Rooter with water restoration and excavation which a lot of our private equity competitors do not do. And so we're never going to be in a place where we offer $77 or $88 drain cleaning. That's just -- we view that as a race to the bottom, and we're not going to engage in that Just a lost leader --

因此，我們確實透過水資源修復和挖掘支持了 Roto-Rooter 的收入，而我們的許多私募股權競爭對手並沒有這樣做。因此，我們絕不會提供價值 77 美元或 88 美元的排水管清潔服務。那隻是——我們認為這是一場逐底競爭，我們不會參與其中，只是一個迷失的領導者--

They're doing that for air conditioning business really is why they're offering that.

他們這樣做是為了空調業務，這就是他們提供這項服務的真正原因。

We're doing everything we can then to combat that, get around that. We've talked a lot about the app. We've talked about the service agreements that we've started selling. And then like I said, we're -- our conversion rate is higher now than it's ever been. In the second quarter, we converted almost 50% of our leads to paying jobs, which is significantly higher than the historical average.

我們正在盡一切努力來對抗和解決這個問題。我們已經討論了很多有關該應用程式的事情。我們已經討論了我們已經開始銷售的服務協議。然後就像我說的，我們的轉換率現在比以往任何時候都高。在第二季度，我們將近 50% 的潛在客戶轉化為付費工作，這一比例明顯高於歷史平均值。

So I think we're doing a great job when the calls come in. We would like to have more calls, but I think we're -- from an operating standpoint, I think we're doing a really good job at Roto-Rooter making sure that every opportunity is converted to a paying job.

因此，我認為當接到電話時，我們做得很好。我們希望接到更多電話，但我認為——從營運的角度來看，我認為我們在 Roto-Rooter 做得很好，確保每個機會都能轉化為有薪工作。

I appreciate that color, guys. Last thing for me, just if you could comment on the tax rate favorability you saw in the second quarter. I just want to see if that's a timing issue or what was behind that looks like about 120 basis point sequential decline in effective tax rate. And just -- that's it for me.

夥計們，我很欣賞那個顏色。最後我想問的是，您能否評論一下第二季的稅率優惠情況？我只是想看看這是否是一個時間問題，或者背後的原因是什麼，看起來有效稅率連續下降了約 120 個基點。並且——對我來說就是這樣。

We -- it's a bit of an accounting thing, but we get -- when people when people exercise stock options, the company gets essentially a larger tax deduction when the stock option with what they realize compared to what we've recorded as the expense. And it's just a function of how the accounting works.

我們 - 這有點像會計的事情，但是我們知道 - 當人們行使股票選擇權時，公司在股票選擇權實現時獲得的稅收減免與我們記錄的費用相比更大。這只是會計運作的一個功能。

Obviously, with where our stock price is, we haven't had too many stock option exercises in the quarter. And so that really drives the change in the rate. When we get a credit in our expense, and we have a lot of exercises, it drives down the rate, and we didn't have as many exercises in the second quarter, and that's really the big driver.

顯然，考慮到我們的股價，本季我們並沒有進行太多的股票選擇權行使。這確實推動了利率的變動。當我們的支出獲得抵免，並且我們進行了大量演習時，它會降低利率，而我們在第二季度沒有進行那麼多演習，這才是真正的主要驅動力。

Joanna Gajuk, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬安娜‧加朱克 (Joanna Gajuk)。

So I guess, first on VITAS, the comment around the weaker admissions, especially the short space in Florida, why I guess that came at the time versus earlier if you're saying that everyone was chasing, so to speak, these shorter petitions. So like why did it show up later versus, say, when the cost situation started already in October of '24. And then what gives you confidence in being able to get this higher mix of short-stay patients going forward.

所以我想，首先關於 VITAS，關於錄取強度較弱的評論，特別是佛羅裡達州的錄取空間較短，我猜這是當時而不是之前出現的，如果你說每個人都在追逐這些較短的請願書。那麼為什麼它會在稍後出現，而不是在 2024 年 10 月成本狀況開始出現的時候呢？那麼，什麼讓您有信心未來能獲得更多短期的住院病人呢？

The -- our confidence in the higher things going forward is really that we've seen a trend. April and May were pretty bad. Before that, I think we were on track and June and July seem to be back on track. I can't tell you exactly why April, May weren't that well that strong.

我們對未來更高目標的信心確實在於我們已經看到了一種趨勢。四月和五月的情況相當糟糕。在此之前，我認為我們已經走在正軌上，六月和七月似乎又回到了正軌。我無法確切地告訴你為什麼四月和五月的表現不那麼強勁。

What I can tell you is when we model out the current operating statistics that we have for June and July, we are pretty confident in the $19 million number for 2025. And we're also pretty confident excluding the impact of the rate issue that 2026 will not have a cap problem.

我可以告訴你的是，當我們根據 6 月和 7 月的當前營運統計數據進行建模時，我們對 2025 年 1900 萬美元的數字非常有信心。而且我們也非常有信心，排除利率問題的影響，2026 年不會有上限問題。

But let's say this. We need -- we like advents, number one. We like all advents. We want the mix to be right -- how do you get a lot of admits. Well you have good reputation.

但是讓我們這麼說吧。我們需要－我們喜歡降臨節，這是第一點。我們喜歡所有的降臨節。我們希望組合是正確的——你如何獲得大量的承認。嗯，你的名聲很好。

You keep doing what we've been doing. We could get -- I'm picking a number, we could probably have 5% higher admits right now. There is no Medicare cap limitation just by snapping your fingers. I mean it's more than doable. How do you get the right mix is really your question, Joanna.

你繼續做我們一直在做的事情。我們可以獲得——我正在選擇一個數字，我們現在的錄取率可能會提高 5%。只要彈指一揮，就沒有醫療保險上限的限制。我的意思是這完全可行。喬安娜，你真正要問的是，如何得到正確的組合。

And the answer is, well, it's by what we have historically said pulling the right levers and -- but it's emphasis. It's where your salespeople are calling. It's how fast you respond to how fast you respond to a lead where somebody has expressed an interest in having a meeting or a discussion, you make sure that with regard to the hospital referral, you make sure you're there with an hour.

答案是，嗯，這是我們歷史上所說的拉動正確槓桿的方式——但這是重點。這是您的銷售人員打電話的地方。這取決於您對某人表示有興趣參加會議或討論的線索的響應速度，您要確保就醫院轉診而言，您能在一個小時內到達那裡。

You just -- it's that type of emphasis, which put this off the top. And just so you know what we're talking about, we're talking about small changes. We're talking about small improvements affecting the results by 1% or 2%, which is more than what we're talking about as far as the issues we're facing.

你只是——正是這種強調，讓這件事變得至關重要。為了讓您了解我們在談論什麼，我們正在談論一些小的變化。我們談論的是影響結果 1% 或 2% 的小改進，這比我們談論的我們所面臨的問題還要多。

I'll just say that one of the things -- the point that I made the point is the type of things we've done in the past when we wanted to emphasize more short-stay admissions were a little less -- they were a little more unveiling just because other people were doing the same thing.

我只想說，其中一件事——我要說的是，我們過去所做的事情，當我們想要強調更多的短期住院接待時，我們做的不太清楚——只是因為其他人也在做同樣的事情，所以揭露的信息比較少。

They were following our lead. And so we just had to refine our efforts. And as Mike suggested, the results of those refined efforts are suggested to be more than adequate. And we'll continue those and we'll continue to refine them.

他們正在跟隨我們的腳步。因此我們必須加倍努力。正如麥克所說，這些精細努力的成果是綽綽有餘的。我們會繼續這些工作，並不斷改善它們。

Right. And then the other piece, right, when you were talking about the your confidence in not having the comp issue right is the new counties that you're entering in Florida. So can you talk about the ramp-up there? And is there a way to think like how much assets could come from that growth in Florida?

正確的。然後，另一部分，對吧，當您談到您對沒有補償問題的信心時，就是您在佛羅裡達州進入的新縣。那麼你能談談那裡的成長情況嗎？有沒有辦法想想佛羅裡達州的這種成長能帶來多少資產？

Well, let me put it this way. We think it's tough. I mean, because we're new in one, and it's been a big success. Pinellas County is one that we got most recently. It's big, I mean, I'd just give you an order of magnitude, Mike, what do you say there's 8,800 admits.

好吧，讓我這樣說。我們認為這很艱難。我的意思是，因為我們是新手，而且取得了巨大的成功。皮內拉斯縣是我們最近獲得的一個縣。它很大，我的意思是，我只能給你一個數量級，麥克，你說有 8,800 人承認。

Yes, 8,600 admits in 2024.

是的，2024 年將有 8,600 人入學。

And if you multiply that number by $36,000 you see maybe $350 million for coverage for Medicare cap billing. I mean it's -- the opportunity is there. Now with regard to, let's say, Pedals County. We just have awarded it.

如果將該數字乘以 36,000 美元，您可能會發現醫療保險上限帳單的覆蓋金額為 3.5 億美元。我的意思是——機會就在那裡。現在我們來談談佩達爾斯縣。我們剛剛授予了它。

There's elements of finalization and dealing with appeals that we have to do in our projections where I said we're projecting no cap in the fourth quarter or anything significant cap next year. That has does not depend on Pinellas County.

我們的預測中有一些需要敲定和處理上訴的要素，我說過，我們預測第四季不會出現上限，明年也不會有任何重大上限。這與皮內拉斯縣無關。

None of our projections include any projection for Pinellas County.

我們的預測均不包括皮內拉斯縣的任何預測。

Now if you ask me, will we be operating and thriving in Pinellas County the next government plan in the year, I have no doubt we will -- but that's not the basis. Our basis is just making slight improvements in the state as well as a whole. But those are -- we mentioned those regularly for the next -- it begs the question, what about the next year? The answer is Pinellas County for one should be booming by that, let's put it that way.

現在如果你問我，我們是否會在今年的下一個政府計劃中在皮內拉斯縣運營並蓬勃發展，我毫不懷疑我們會的——但這不是基礎。我們的基礎只是在狀態和整體上做出一些小小的改善。但這些是——我們在接下來的幾年裡經常提到這些——這就引出了一個問題，明年會怎麼樣？答案是，皮內拉斯縣應該會因此而繁榮，我們就這麼說吧。

Yes. I mean, ultimately, the new CONs will buy us a little bit of extra time to rightsize the patient mix, which is what we're doing and which is what we've talked about for the second half of '25 and all of '26.

是的。我的意思是，最終，新的 CON 將為我們贏得一些額外的時間來調整患者組合，這就是我們正在做的事情，也是我們在 2025 年下半年和整個 2026 年所討論的事情。

Right. And I guess you alluded to the ideas like you don't know for sure in the Florida rate update yet, right, because we didn't see the details yet, but it sounds like you -- based on some other data points where you're thinking that likely that it's going to be some of that issue repeat, but it sounds like you think it's smaller, right?

正確的。我想您提到的想法是，您還不確定佛羅裡達州的利率更新，對吧，因為我們還沒有看到細節，但聽起來您 - 根據其他一些數據點，您認為可能會重複出現一些問題，但聽起來您認為它較小，對吧？

So I guess you're saying that despite the fact that you think that there is a consideration that there could be the gap that there's enough of these other things you could do in terms of the mix and then potentially that's not even going to consider the new countries. Right?

所以我猜你是說，儘管你認為存在差距，但從組合的角度來看，你可以做足夠多的其他事情，然後可能甚至不會考慮新的國家。正確的？

Right. So our current models, which show that we have somewhere in the -- we are projecting $15 million to $20 million cushion next year in Florida, but that does not include any potential credit we could get in Pinellas but it also doesn't include any of the rate differential.

正確的。因此，我們目前的模型顯示，我們預計明年佛羅裡達州的緩衝資金為 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元，但這不包括我們在皮內拉斯可能獲得的任何潛在信貸，也不包括任何利率差異。

I think the -- we've done some analysis on what we think the hospital wages look like in Florida. We think it is going to be above the national average. Having said that, what we saw in '25 was a wider spread than we've ever seen in the 20 years we've owned VITAS.

我認為——我們對佛羅裡達州的醫院工資狀況做了一些分析。我們認為它將高於全國平均水平。話雖如此，我們在 25 年看到的傳播範圍比我們擁有 VITAS 的 20 年來任何時候都更廣。

We would expect that to continue. But even if it does, we will manage to that number either way. We want it to be as high as possible. We'd like a 3% delta. I mean give us -- but we would reserve it.

我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。但即使如此，我們也會設法達到這個數字。我們希望它盡可能高。我們想要 3% 的增量。我的意思是給我們——但我們會保留它。

In other words, all we're saying in that case, if they get -- if there was a 2% delta, we got we got 4% in Florida and 2% nationwide, Medicare Cap limitation went up 2%. The first month what we would do in our results until proven otherwise, we would take.

換句話說，在這種情況下，我們所說的是，如果他們得到 - 如果有 2% 的增量，我們在佛羅裡達州得到 4%，在全國範圍內得到 2%，醫療保險上限限制上升了 2%。第一個月我們會採取一切措施，直到有證據證明不是這樣。

We would then say we have Florida Medicare billing limitation until we take the money we've got from the government, we've set it aside knowing we're probably going to have to give it back unless we unless the advents came in the door, the additional admin. So it's a hedge you win tails, you don't lose situation if the cap is high. If the increase in reimbursement is higher in Florida national average, it's good.

然後我們會說，我們有佛羅裡達州醫療保險賬單限制，直到我們拿到政府給的錢，我們把它放在一邊，知道我們可能不得不把它歸還，除非我們有額外的管理費用。因此，這是一種對沖，如果你贏了，那麼如果上限很高，你就不會輸。如果佛羅裡達州的報銷額增幅高於全國平均水平，那就好了。

Ultimately, what we're trying to say, Joanna, is that our current operating model and the current trends that we're on will not result in any cap in 2026. There's an unknown with the rate differential. We'll deal with that when that comes. We'll let you know what it is when it comes, but our current operating model will suggest that we will not have any cap.

最終，喬安娜，我們想說的是，我們目前的營運模式和當前的趨勢不會在 2026 年導致任何上限。利率差異存在未知數。到時候我們會處理的。當它出現時我們會告訴你，但我們目前的營運模式表明我們不會有任何上限。

If we try to put into the model some rate differential, it would purely be a swag. And we don't think that, that makes sense to do. When we're trying to essentially portray that the 19 is going to zero not 19 to 50, as Kevin mentioned.

如果我們嘗試將一些利率差異納入模型，那將純粹是一種贓物。但我們認為這樣做沒有意義。正如 Kevin 所提到的，我們試圖從本質上描繪出 19 將會變成 0，而不是 19 變成 50。

I guess what you'll see next year, and I'm putting myself in your position. You say, okay, what should we do for estimates and expectations. For Florida, you should assume that the Medicare Cap limitation will go up in a sense, the national average, anything above that ignore because we will. It will be like California for us. In other words, we know right now, California is very profitable or not.

我猜想明年你會看到什麼，我把自己放在你的立場。你說，好吧，對於估計和期望我們應該怎麼做。對於佛羅裡達州，你應該假設醫療保險上限限制在某種意義上會上升，即全國平均水平，任何高於這個數字的都會被忽略，因為我們會這樣做。對我們來說，它就像加州一樣。換句話說，我們現在知道加州是否非常有利可圖。

We make all our estimates. We say, okay, there's going to be about $8 million of cap in the state. If we got an increase, if it was 2% it was 2% higher than national average, we'd say, well, technically, we're going to come in exactly where we thought, but we will have a Medicare cap reporting of in Florida in that case.

我們做出了所有估計。我們說，好的，該州的上限將約為 800 萬美元。如果我們獲得了成長，如果是 2%，即比全國平均水平高出 2%，我們會說，好吧，從技術上講，我們將完全達到我們想像的目標，但在這種情況下，我們將在佛羅裡達州報告醫療保險上限。

All things being equal, but let's say, $20 million, okay? We would note that, we would state that on the day that we had the information from the Florida reimbursement, what it was.

假設其他條件相同，那麼我們假設是 2000 萬美元，可以嗎？我們會注意到，我們會說明我們收到佛羅裡達州報銷資訊的那天的情況。

And we will ignore that internally. We suggest analysts ignore that and just say, they may have to give $20 million back to the state of Florida, but there's a good chance we'll do better than that and have to give less or not back to the federal government. I mean, we'll see how it comes, but it's not a big issue to us. Our view is we're not holding our breath waiting for that number. the bigger it is, the better upside for us.

我們會在內部忽略這一點。我們建議分析師忽略這一點，直接說，他們可能必須向佛羅裡達州返還 2000 萬美元，但我們很有可能做得更好，必須向聯邦政府返還更少的錢，或者不返還。我的意思是，我們會看看事情會如何發展，但這對我們來說不是什麼大問題。我們的觀點是，我們不會屏住呼吸等待這個數字。這個數字越大，對我們來說就越有利。

But we're going to try and make it next year for everyone, for people whose job it is to predict and analyze the results of the company, a non entity -- something that does not affect the ultimate task that you're doing. Does that make sense, Mike, I have a I mean it's a tough one because it sounds like a bogeyman, Medicare cap. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if it's different. I mean, what are the odds is going to be exactly the same?

但明年，我們將努力讓每個人，包括負責預測和分析公司績效的人，都能夠將其變成一個非實體，而不會影響你們最終要完成的任務。這有道理嗎，麥克，我有一個我的意思是這是一個棘手的問題，因為它聽起來像是一個妖怪，醫療保險上限。但如果情況有所不同，我一點也不會感到驚訝。我的意思是，完全相同的幾率有多大？

All right. Maybe just quickly on the other business, just to clarify. So you called out this higher insurance, I guess, accrual in the quarter. And I think you did something about -- you don't think it can persist, but you did was your -- or sorry, wellhead beer margin for the segment for the broader segment by 200 basis points. So do you assume that the issues you saw persist for the rest of the year?

好的。也許只是快速談論其他事情，只是為了澄清。所以我想您已經提到了本季更高的保險費應計金額。我認為你採取了一些措施 - 你認為這種情況不會持續下去，但你所做的是 - 或者抱歉，將更廣泛細分市場的井口啤酒利潤率提高了 200 個基點。那麼您是否認為您所看到的問題會持續到今年年底？

Well, here's first of all, there's a catch-up element to it. I mean it's more than the expense we took is more than what we took in -- effective in the quarter is more than one quarter's result impact, number one.

嗯，首先，它有一個追趕元素。我的意思是，我們的支出超過了我們的收入——本季的實際收入超過了對一個季度的結果的影響，這是第一點。

And number two, the point that if Roto-Rooter can continue to do a good job reducing the number of accidents and the severity of them. It's got nowhere to go but down. Now let me start by saying that we had a new -- based on the insurance market, there were -- we have a new policy in different deductible, different elements.

第二點，看看 Roto-Rooter 能否繼續做好減少事故數量和嚴重程度的工作。它除了向下別無他法。現在，首先我要說的是，我們有了一個新的——基於保險市場——我們有一個包含不同免賠額、不同要素的新保單。

There are some adjustments we have to make as far as managing it. But no, we don't expect big surprises in the Roto-Rooter expense in that regard. And so when I say don't persist, there's no magic bullet other than it was a lot to take in, in one quarter, number one.

在管理方面我們必須做一些調整。但不，我們並不認為 Roto-Rooter 在這方面的支出會帶來太大的意外。所以當我說不要堅持時，除了在一個季度內需要吸收很多東西之外，沒有什麼靈丹妙藥，這是第一點。

And number two, we're going to do a better job managing and predicting it. But ultimately, the answer to your question is just that our emphasis on safety and reducing those type of expenses doing a much better job monitoring the insurance adjusters who are settling these claims, that type of thing.

第二，我們將更好地管理和預測它。但最終，你問題的答案是我們強調安全並減少這類開支，更好地監控處理這些索賠的保險理賠員，諸如此類的事情。

That's where we're going to see the improvement. So if you combine it with good experience, and much more emphasis on what happens after the accident occurs, there's a lot of confidence in that level of expense you saw and the level of deterioration in the margin that you saw in the second quarter will not persist.

這就是我們將會看到的進步。因此，如果你將其與良好的經驗相結合，並更加重視事故發生後的情況，那麼你就會對所看到的費用水平充滿信心，並且你在第二季度看到的利潤率下降程度將不會持續下去。

And as Kevin mentioned, in the almost $5 million extra hit we took a -- there's at least -- there's some of that, that is out of period. But just so you know, when you're doing your model, Joanna, we did include an increase in those costs of $4 million in total for the second half of the year. We didn't want to be caught short again, not at least considering those costs in the guidance we put out. So --

正如凱文所提到的，我們遭受了近 500 萬美元的額外損失 — — 至少 — — 其中有一些是超出期限的。但是您要知道，喬安娜，當您製作模型時，我們確實將下半年總計 400 萬美元的成本增長計算在內。我們不想再次陷入資金短缺，至少在我們發布的指導下考慮到這些成本。所以--

Improvement I'm talking about will take some time to put it.

我所說的改進需要一些時間來實現。

So in the guidance that we've put out, Roto-Rooter has baked in $4 million or $2 million in each quarter of additional expense for this issue. Could it be better than that? -- we think it could be, but it's hard to say, but we want to sort that..

因此，在我們發布的指導中，Roto-Rooter 已為此問題在每個季度計入了 400 萬美元或 200 萬美元的額外費用。還會比這更好嗎？ ——我們認為可能會，但很難說，但我們想解決這個問題。

We don't have a hard data until the next report by the outside auditing firm.

在外部審計公司發布下一份報告之前，我們無法獲得確切的數據。

All right. That's helpful. And if I may just a last one on capital deployment? Where is the cash pretty good. I know that, yes, there's issues in one business and the other.

好的。這很有幫助。我最後想問一下關於資本部署的問題，可以嗎？現金在哪裡還不錯。是的，我知道，一個企業和另一個企業都存在問題。

Those things change your view things because I want to say no, decompose acquisition. And at that time, you were alluding that there could be more like that. So can you refresh your commentary around that? Like is there any change in debt to pass around maybe there's some consolidation notes to be done.

這些事情會改變你對事物的看法，因為我想說不，分解收購。當時，您暗示可能會有更多類似的事情發生。那麼，您能否就此更新您的評論？例如，是否有任何債務需要轉移，也許有一些合併票據需要做。

There's no change in strategy, Joanna. We would love to make acquisitions that are at the right valuation and on the VITAS side, in the right location. We continue to monitor and have those conversations. It's -- it's a bit of a long lead time because we're contacting people. We're contacting organizations, essentially cold calling them in some instances, to see their appetite for making such a transaction.

策略沒有改變，喬安娜。我們很樂意在 VITAS 方面以合適的估值和在合適的地點進行收購。我們將繼續監控並進行這些對話。由於我們正在聯繫人們，所以準備時間有點長。我們正在聯繫各個組織，在某些情況下，基本上是主動打電話給他們，以了解他們是否有興趣進行此類交易。

And so there's a bit of a long lead time for those. But there's no change in the direction of what we would like to do. Having said that, regardless of the cash or what's on no debt on the balance sheet, we're not going to just buy things to grow. They had to be at the right valuation. They had to be at the right place in the right location.

因此，這些都需要較長的準備時間。但我們想要做的事情的方向並沒有改變。話雖如此，無論現金多少或資產負債表上有多少債務，我們都不會只是為了成長而購買東西。他們必須得到正確的估值。他們必須出現在正確的地點和正確的位置。

And I would also tell you there's no change in the idea that because of our strength of our balance sheet, significant share buybacks and acquisitions are not mutually exclusive. We can do both. And that's why we've kept the balance sheet the way it is. So I would expect some movement in the third quarter probably on a share perspective. But otherwise, there's no change to our overall strategy.

我還要告訴你們，由於我們的資產負債表實力雄厚，所以大量股票回購和收購並不互相排斥，這種想法沒有改變。我們可以兩者兼顧。這就是我們保持資產負債表現狀的原因。因此，我預期第三季從股價角度來看可能會出現一些變動。但除此之外，我們的整體戰略並沒有改變。

(Operator Instructions) I'm showing no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Kevin for closing remarks.

（操作員指示）隊列中沒有其他問題。現在我想將電話轉回給凱文，請他做最後發言。

Well, I just want to thank everyone for their kind attention, and we've got a tough quarter for our operating units, and I think we're well on the way to improving the outlook, and we'll see in our next report three months from now. Thank you.

好吧，我只想感謝大家的關注，我們的營運部門經歷了一個艱難的季度，我認為我們正在改善前景的道路上，我們將在三個月後的下一份報告中看到。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。