切遲杜威 (CHD) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Church & Dwight's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.

    早安,女士們、先生們,歡迎參加 Church & Dwight 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

  • Before we begin, I've been asked to remind you that on this call, the company's management may make forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the company's financial objectives and forecasts. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and other factors that are described in detail in the company's SEC filings.

    在我們開始之前,我被要求提醒您,在這次電話會議上,公司管理層可能會就公司的財務目標和預測等做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到風險和不確定性以及公司向 SEC 文件中詳細描述的其他因素的影響。

  • I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Matt Farrell, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Church & Dwight. Please go ahead, sir.

    現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人,Church & Dwight 董事長、總裁兼執行長 Matt Farrell 先生。請繼續,先生。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I'll begin with a review of the Q2 results. And then I'll turn the call over to Rick Dierker, who's our CFO and Head of Business Operations. And when Rick is done, we'll open up the call for questions. So Q2 was another solid quarter for Church & Dwight. Reported sales growth was 3.9%, which beat our outlook of 3.5% and that was thanks to strong results across the board from domestic, international and Specialty Products.

    大家,早安。感謝您今天加入我們。我將首先回顧第二季度的結果。然後我會將電話轉給 Rick Dierker,他是我們的財務長兼業務營運主管。當 Rick 完成後,我們將開始提問。因此,第二季度對於 Church & Dwight 來說是另一個穩健的季度。報告的銷售成長為 3.9%,超出了我們 3.5% 的預期,這要歸功於國內、國際和特種產品的全面強勁業績。

  • Organic sales grew 4.7%, which exceeded our 4% Q2 outlook with volume accounting for a very healthy 3.5% of our growth. Adjusted gross margin expanded 150 basis points. At the same time, we increased marketing spending, and we gained market share in the majority of our categories.

    有機銷售額成長 4.7%,超出了我們第二季 4% 的預期,銷量占我們成長的 3.5%,非常健康。調整後毛利率擴大150個基點。同時,我們增加了行銷支出,並在大多數類別中獲得了市場份額。

  • Adjusted EPS was $0.93, which was $0.10 higher than our $0.83 outlook. That was a quality quarter, and Rick will take you through that later. The results were driven by higher than expected sales growth and gross margin expansion. And we continue to grow in the online class of trade with online sales as a percentage of global sales now reaching 21.2%.

    調整後每股收益為 0.93 美元,比我們的預期 0.83 美元高出 0.10 美元。那是一個高品質的季度,里克稍後會帶你回顧一下。高於預期的銷售成長和毛利率擴張推動了這一業績。我們的線上貿易類別持續成長,線上銷售額佔全球銷售額的比例現已達到 21.2%。

  • Now I'm going to turn my comments to each of the three businesses. First up is the U.S. consumer business with 3.8% organic sales growth. Volume growth was 3.3%, making this the fourth consecutive quarter of volume growth in the U.S. As you read in the release, Church & Dwight had the highest dollar consumption growth among our top 10 peers and five of our seven power brands gained market share in the quarter with a few hitting all-time highs.

    現在我將對這三家企業分別發表評論。首先是美國消費者業務,有機銷售額成長 3.8%。銷量成長了3.3%,這是美國銷量連續第四個季度增長 正如您在新聞稿中所讀到的那樣,Church & Dwight 在我們的10 大同行中擁有最高的美元消費增長,並且我們的7個實力品牌中有5 個在2019 年獲得了市場份額。

  • Now let's look at a few important categories in the U.S. Innovation is a big contributor to our success this year. And as I comment on the categories, I'll highlight the success of our new product launches. I'm going to start with laundry detergent. So ARM & HAMMER liquid laundry detergent consumption outpaced the 1.6% category growth and achieved an all-time high record share in the quarter of 14.8%, which is up 20 bps. ARM & HAMMER unit dose, ARM & HAMMER scent boosters and extra liquid laundry brand, all grew faster than their categories and also grew share in the quarter.

    現在讓我們來看看美國的幾個重要類別。當我評論這些類別時,我將強調我們新產品發布的成功。我將從洗衣粉開始。因此,ARM & HAMMER 液體洗衣粉消費量超過了 1.6% 的品類成長,並在本季度實現了 14.8% 的歷史新高份額,成長了 20 個基點。ARM & HAMMER 單位劑量、ARM & HAMMER 香味增強劑和額外洗衣液品牌的成長速度均高於其類別,且本季的份額也有所成長。

  • Regarding new products, we have launched two new products into the detergent category, ARM & HAMMER Deep Clean and ARM & HAMMER Power Sheets. The first, ARM & HAMMER Deep Clean, is our most premium laundry detergent entering the mid-tier of liquid laundry. ARM & HAMMER Deep Clean accounted for 40% of ARM & HAMMER's liquid laundry detergent consumption growth in the quarter and is highly incremental to the ARM & HAMMER franchise.

    在新產品方面,我們在清潔劑類別中推出了兩款新產品:ARM & HAMMER Deep Clean 和 ARM & HAMMER Power Sheets。第一款產品是 ARM & HAMMER Deep Clean,是我們進入液體洗衣中端市場最優質的洗衣粉。ARM & HAMMER Deep Clean 佔本季 ARM & HAMMER 液體洗衣粉消費成長的 40%,並且對 ARM & HAMMER 特許經營業務來說是一個巨大的增量。

  • The second new product is ARM & HAMMER Power Sheets which is a laundry detergent. ARM & HAMMER was the first major brand to offer this new unit dose form in the U.S. the last year in August. Since expanding the launch of this product into bricks and mortar retailers this year, we have seen high consumer interest in the form. Our ARM & HAMMER Power Sheets has proven to be highly incremental to both the sheets category and the total laundry detergent category, and we are seeing repeat rates increase. We feel great about the future prospects for this product and form.

    第二個新產品是 ARM & HAMMER Power Sheets,這是一種洗衣粉。去年 8 月,ARM & HAMMER 是第一個在美國提供這種新單位劑型的主要品牌。自從今年將該產品擴展到實體零售商以來,我們發現消費者對此形式表現出很高的興趣。事實證明,我們的 ARM & HAMMER Power Sheets 對床單類別和整個洗衣粉類別都有很大的增量,而且我們看到重複率增加。我們對這種產品和形式的未來前景感到非常滿意。

  • Now I'm going to talk about litter. ARM & HAMMER litter grew consumption 6% in Q2, which was almost double the category growth. Our new lightweight ARM & HAMMER Hardball Clumping Litter is outperforming our expectations as our share of the lightweight category has grown from 4.5% in Q1 to 8.2% in Q2. This is important because lightweight accounts for 16% of the Clumping Litter category, and so we expect Hardball to continue to grow in the coming quarters.

    現在我要談談垃圾問題。第二季度,ARM & HAMMER 垃圾的消費量增加了 6%,幾乎是該類別成長的兩倍。我們的新輕量級 ARM & HAMMER Hardball Clumping Litter 的表現超出了我們的預期,我們在輕量級類別中的份額已從第一季的 4.5% 增長到第二季度的 8.2%。這一點很重要,因為輕質垃圾佔 Clumping Litter 類別的 16%,因此我們預計 Hardball 在未來幾季將繼續成長。

  • Turning to personal care. The gummy vitamins business continued to be a drag on the total company organic growth in Q2. The gummy vitamin category declined 1.9% in Q2, which is an improvement from the 5% category decline in the past two quarters. The bad news is our consumption was down even greater. We were down 10.9%. We continue to move forward with our plan to stabilize our gummy business through new packaging, upgraded formulas to improve the consumer experience, new forms like chewables and greater marketing investments that we've talked about with you in the past. However, the improvement is taking much longer than we anticipated.

    轉向個人護理。維生素軟糖業務持續拖累第二季公司整體有機成長。維生素軟糖類別在第二季度下降了 1.9%,較過去兩季 5% 的類別下降有所改善。壞消息是我們的消費下降幅度更大。我們下跌了 10.9%。我們繼續推進我們的計劃,透過新包裝、升級配方以改善消費者體驗、咀嚼片等新形式以及我們過去與您討論過的更大行銷投資來穩定我們的軟糖業務。然而,改進所花費的時間比我們預期的要長得多。

  • Next up is BATISTE. BATISTE continues to see strong consumption growth with consumption up 14.5% in Q2, growing share to 47%. BATISTE continues to be the global leader in dry shampoo and innovation is very important to the success of this brand. So listen to this. This year, we launched BATISTE Sweat Activated and BATISTE Touch Activated dry shampoos. These products are bringing new users to the category. And already, these two new products account for a 2% share of dry shampoo and Sweat Activated is the number 1 new product in the category.

    接下來是巴蒂斯特。BATITE 的消費持續強勁成長,第二季消費成長 14.5%,份額成長至 47%。BATITE 持續成為乾洗洗髮精的全球領導者,創新對品牌的成功非常重要。所以聽聽這個。今年,我們推出了 BATITE Sweat Activated 和 BATITE Touch Activated 乾洗洗髮精。這些產品為該類別帶來了新用戶。目前,這兩款新產品已佔乾洗洗髮精 2% 的份額,Sweat Activated 是該類別中排名第一的新產品。

  • Over in mouthwash, THERABREATH continues to perform extremely well. THERABREATH is the number 1 alcohol-free mouthwash and the number 3 brand in total mouthwash with a 17% share. This year, THERABREATH entered the antiseptic segment of the category with the launch of THERABREATH Deep Clean Oral Rinse.

    在漱口水中,THERABREATH 繼續表現出色。THERABREATH 是排名第一的無酒精漱口水,也是漱口水總量中排名第三的品牌,佔有 17% 的份額。今年,隨著 THERABREATH 深層清潔口腔沖洗液的推出,THERABREATH 進入了該類別的抗菌領域。

  • It's important to note that antiseptics represents 30% of the $2 billion mouthwash category, and our launch into antiseptics accounted for 100 basis points of our 400 basis point year-over-year market share gain in total mouthwash. So that's a great indicator of the future of the antiseptic launch.

    值得注意的是,抗菌劑佔 20 億美元漱口水類別的 30%,而我們在漱口水市場份額同比增長 400 個基點中,抗菌劑的推出佔了 100 個基點。所以這是抗菌劑未來推出的一個很好的指標。

  • HERO continues to drive the majority of growth in the acne category and has grown to become the number 1 brand in the acne category with a 20% share. HERO continues to launch innovative solutions and patches combined with adjacent consumer needs. An example would be the recently launched Dissolve Away Daily Cleansing Balm.

    HERO 繼續推動痤瘡品類的大部分成長,並已成長為痤瘡品類第一品牌,佔有 20% 的份額。HERO 結合鄰近的消費者需求,不斷推出創新的解決方案和修補程式。一個例子是最近推出的 Dissolve Away Daily Cleansing Balm。

  • Now a few comments about private label. Regarding private label, the good news is our weighted average private label exposure is relatively stable. We have seen notable private label share gains in gummy vitamins, where private label gained 2 share points, achieving a 16.7% share, which is back to pre-COVID historical highs. This has also contributed to our difficulties in that business.

    現在對自有品牌有一些評論。關於自有品牌,好消息是我們的加權平均自有品牌曝光度相對穩定。我們看到維生素軟糖領域的自有品牌份額顯著增長,其中自有品牌份額增長了 2 個百分點,達到 16.7% 的份額,回到了新冠疫情前的歷史高點。這也造成了我們在該業務上的困難。

  • In the litter category, private label share has increased sequentially in the last few quarters from 13.1% in Q4, 13.3% in Q1 and 13.5% in Q2. So current levels are historical highs. The good news is that it's a different story for us as ARM & HAMMER Litter continues to gain share in spite of the private label strength.

    在垃圾類別中,自有品牌份額在過去幾季連續成長,從第四季的 13.1%、第一季的 13.3% 和第二季的 13.5% 開始。所以目前的水準是歷史高位。好消息是,這對我們來說是一個不同的故事,儘管自有品牌實力雄厚,但 ARM & HAMMER Litter 仍在繼續擴大市場份額。

  • I'll close my comments on the U.S. by saying that although consumption has been strong through the first half of the year, we did experience a slowdown in June and July. And for context, and you read this in the release, our categories averaged 4.5% dollar consumption growth through May of this year. But since then, it has been closer to 2%.

    在結束對美國的評論時,我要說的是,儘管今年上半年消費強勁,但 6 月和 7 月確實經歷了放緩。就背景而言,您在新聞稿中讀到了這一點,截至今年 5 月,我們的類別平均美元消費增長了 4.5%。但自那以後,這一比例一直接近 2%。

  • Now this is not entirely a surprise as we expected a deceleration as year-over-year pricing rolled off. However, unit consumption also saw a deceleration from the first five months to what we saw in June and July. So it appears that the consumer maybe getting extended and is making choices around spending habits.

    現在這並不完全令人意外,因為我們預計隨著價格同比下降,價格會放緩。然而,單位消費也從前五個月到六月和七月出現減速。因此,消費者似乎可能會擴展並圍繞消費習慣做出選擇。

  • While we have only seen this trend for the last couple of months, we expect that categories are likely to grow at a slower pace than we experienced in the first half of the year. And as you know, our balanced portfolio of value and premium offerings performs, I should say, is well suited to changes in consumer buying patterns.

    雖然我們在過去幾個月才看到這種趨勢,但我們預計該類別的成長速度可能會比上半年慢。如您所知,我應該說,我們平衡的價值和優質產品組合非常適合消費者購買模式的變化。

  • Turning now to international and Specialty Products. Our international business delivered organic growth of 9.3% in Q2. This was driven by strong growth in the subsidiaries as well as our Global Markets Group. And just a few call outs. We had strong growth in Canada, Mexico, Germany and our Global Markets Group.

    現在轉向國際和特色產品。我們的國際業務在第二季度實現了 9.3% 的有機成長。這是由子公司以及我們的全球市場集團的強勁成長所推動的。只是一些呼籲。我們在加拿大、墨西哥、德國和全球市場集團實現了強勁成長。

  • And finally, Specialty Products. Organic sales increased 3.9% and that's two quarters of solid organic growth for this business. We're confident that this division will achieve a 5% organic sales growth this year, which would hit our evergreen growth target.

    最後是特色產品。有機銷售額成長了 3.9%,這是該業務兩個季度的穩健有機成長。我們有信心該部門今年將實現 5% 的有機銷售成長,這將實現我們的常青成長目標。

  • I want to wrap up my comments by reiterating that the company is performing well, all three divisions delivering strong growth. I want to thank all the Church & Dwighters out there for doing such a great job each and every day.

    我想透過重申公司表現良好來結束我的評論,所有三個部門都實現了強勁成長。我要感謝所有 Church & Dwighters 每天都做得如此出色。

  • And now I'm going to turn it over to Rick to give you some more color around the quarter and full year outlook.

    現在我將把它交給 Rick,為您提供有關季度和全年展望的更多資訊。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everybody. We'll start with EPS. Second quarter adjusted EPS was $0.93, up 1.1% from the prior year. The $0.93 was better than our $0.83 outlook and is a high-quality beat, primarily driven from higher than expected sales growth and gross margin expansion. We'll walk through the details of the P&L. But this was a strong quarter with 8% growth of profit before tax versus the prior year, excluding the tariff benefit.

    謝謝你,馬特,大家早安。我們將從 EPS 開始。第二季調整後每股收益為 0.93 美元,比去年同期成長 1.1%。0.93 美元的業績好於我們 0.83 美元的預期,是一個高品質的突破,主要是由於高於預期的銷售成長和毛利率擴張。我們將詳細介紹損益表。但這是一個強勁的季度,稅前利潤較上年增長 8%(不包括關稅優惠)。

  • Other important highlight for the quarter was the majority of our brands gained share. Reported revenue was up 3.9% and organic sales was up 4.7%. Organic sales was driven by volume of 3.5% and positive price mix of 1.2%. Volume was the primary driver of organic growth, and we expect volume growth to continue for the rest of the year. And as Matt mentioned earlier, this makes four consecutive quarters of volume growth.

    本季度的另一個重要亮點是我們的大多數品牌的份額都增加了。報告營收成長 3.9%,有機銷售額成長 4.7%。有機銷售由 3.5% 的銷量和 1.2% 的積極價格組合推動。銷售量是有機成長的主要驅動力,我們預計今年剩餘時間銷售將持續成長。正如馬特之前提到的,這使得銷量連續四個季度增長。

  • Our second quarter gross margin was 47.1%, a 320 basis point increase from a year ago, reflected a one-time benefit on a favorable ruling and rebate related to historical tariff payments. Excluding this impact, adjusted gross margin increased 150 basis points due to productivity, volume and mix, net of the impact of higher manufacturing costs.

    我們第二季的毛利率為 47.1%,比去年同期成長 320 個基點,反映出與歷史關稅支付相關的有利裁決和回扣帶來的一次性收益。排除此影響,由於生產率、銷售和產品組合(扣除製造成本上升的影響),調整後的毛利率增加了 150 個基點。

  • Let me walk you through the Q2 bridge. Gross margin components are as follows; positive 80 basis points impact from price, volume, mix and a positive 120 basis points from productivity. This was partially offset by a 10 basis point drag from currency and a 40 basis point drag from inflation.

    讓我帶您穿過 Q2 橋。毛利率構成如下:價格、數量、組合帶來 80 個基點的正向影響,生產力帶來 120 個基點的正向影響。這被貨幣 10 個基點的拖累和通膨 40 個基點的拖累部分抵消。

  • Moving to marketing. Marketing was up 20.2 million year-over-year. Marketing expense as a percent of net sales was 10.1% or 100 basis points higher than Q2 of last year and led to share gains. For SG&A, Q2 adjusted SG&A increased 20 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to international R&D and costs related to the Graphico acquisition.

    轉向行銷。行銷量年增 2,020 萬。行銷費用佔淨銷售額的百分比比去年第二季高出 10.1%,即 100 個基點,導致股價上漲。對於SG&A,第二季調整後的SG&A 年成長20 個基點,主要是由於與Graphico 收購相關的國際研發和成本。

  • Other expense decreased by $7.8 million, primarily due to lower outstanding debt and higher interest income. For income tax, our effective rate for the quarter was 24% compared to 17.9% in 2023, which is significantly higher than a year ago due to a high level of stock options exercised in Q2 of '23. We continue to expect the full year rate to be approximately 23%.

    其他費用減少 780 萬美元,主要是由於未償債務減少和利息收入增加。對於所得稅,我們本季的有效稅率為 24%,而 2023 年為 17.9%,由於 2023 年第二季行使的股票選擇權水準較高,該稅率顯著高於一年前。我們繼續預計全年成長率約為 23%。

  • And now to cash. For the first six months of 2024, cash from operating activities was $499 million, almost $500 million, a decrease of $9 million with higher cash earnings offset by higher working capital. We now expect full year cash flow from operations to be approximately $1.80 billion.

    現在要兌現。2024 年前 6 個月,經營活動產生的現金為 4.99 億美元,接近 5 億美元,減少了 900 萬美元,現金收益的增加被營運資本的增加所抵銷。我們目前預計全年營運現金流約為 18 億美元。

  • Capital expenditures for the first six months was $76.6 million, a $13.4 million increase from the prior year as capacity expansion projects proceeded as planned. We expect 2024 CapEx of approximately $180 million as we complete the majority of those investments that were initiated in 2023, and we continue to expect CapEx to return to historical levels of 2% of sales in 2025 and beyond.

    由於產能擴張項目按計劃進行,前六個月的資本支出為 7,660 萬美元,比上年增加 1,340 萬美元。隨著我們完成 2023 年啟動的大部分投資,我們預計 2024 年的資本支出約為 1.8 億美元,並且我們繼續預計資本支出將在 2025 年及以後恢復到佔銷售額 2% 的歷史水平。

  • And now for the full year outlook, as Matt mentioned, strong financial performance in the first half of the year and strong categories and share gains. As we move into the second half, consumption growth has moderated in many categories as the consumer remains under pressure.

    現在展望全年展望,正如馬特所提到的,上半年財務表現強勁,類別和股票收益強勁。進入下半年,由於消費者仍面臨壓力,許多品類的消費成長放緩。

  • Consequently, we are tightening our organic revenue outlook and now expect or getting sales growth to be approximately 4%, at the low end of our prior 4% to 5% range. Reported sales growth is expected to be approximately 3.5%, which also reflects a drag from currency and the impact from divestitures. We continue to expect full year adjusted EPS in the range of 8% to 9% growth, but now at the low end of the range.

    因此,我們正在收緊我們的有機收入前景,現在預計或實現銷售成長約 4%,處於我們之前 4% 至 5% 範圍的低端。報告的銷售成長預計約為 3.5%,這也反映了貨幣的拖累和資產剝離的影響。我們繼續預計全年調整後每股收益將成長 8% 至 9%,但目前處於該範圍的低端。

  • In round numbers, the sales call down would normally be offset by the gross margin raise at the EPS line. However, we have two other factors for the change. Number one, as you saw in the release, full year SG&A is now expected to increase as a result of higher spend for Graphico. That drag went from $0.01 to $0.02 as we make incremental investments. And then number two is dry powder in the event categories get more promotional in the second half.

    以整數計算,銷售電話的下降通常會被每股盈餘線毛利率的上升所抵銷。然而,我們還有另外兩個因素導致這項變化。第一,正如您在新聞稿中看到的那樣,由於 Graphico 支出增加,預計全年 SG&A 將會增加。隨著我們進行增量投資,這一阻力從 0.01 美元降至 0.02 美元。其次是活動類別中的乾粉在下半年得到更多促銷。

  • Turning to gross margin. We now expect expansion of approximately 100 basis points to 110 basis points, up from our previous outlook of 75 basis points of expansion. We continue to expect an increase in manufacturing costs to be more than offset through productivity, mix and higher volume. We continue to expect marketing as a percentage of net sales to be approximately 11% as we continue to grow share across many of our brands.

    轉向毛利率。我們現在預計擴張約 100 個基點至 110 個基點,高於我們先前擴張 75 個基點的預期。我們仍然預計,生產成本的增加將透過生產力、產品組合和產量的增加而得到抵銷。隨著我們許多品牌的份額不斷增長,我們仍然預期行銷佔淨銷售額的百分比約為 11%。

  • And with that, Matt and I would be happy to take any questions.

    因此,馬特和我很樂意回答任何問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, if you would like to ask a question, simply press star and one on your telephone keypad by pressing star and one more, please your line into a queue and we'll take your questions one at a time.

    女士們先生們,此時,如果您想提問,只需按電話鍵盤上的星號和一個,再按一個星號和一個,請您排隊,我們將一次一個地回答您的問題。

  • Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that is star and one on your telephone keypad. We'll hear first today from Rupesh Parikh of Oppenheimer.

    女士們,先生們,這又是您電話鍵盤上的一顆星星。今天我們將首先聽到奧本海默的魯佩什·帕里克 (Rupesh Parikh) 的演講。

  • Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

    Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

  • Good morning and thanks for taking my question. So, Rick, I just want to, I guess, go back to your comments on the promotional backdrop. So, I would love to hear about what you guys are seeing right now on the promotional backdrop and then what your expectations are for the balance of the year?

    早安,感謝您提出我的問題。所以,里克,我想,我只想回到你對促銷背景的評論。那麼,我很想聽聽你們現在在促銷背景下看到的情況,以及你們對今年剩餘時間的期望是什麼?

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. Let me give you a sense for what's going on promotionally, Rupesh. And as everybody knows, the household is former promotional than personal care. But if you look at liquid laundry detergent sold on deal from Q1 to Q2.

    是的。Rupesh,讓我向您介紹促銷活動。而眾所周知,家居比個人護理更注重促銷。但如果你看看第一季到第二季的液體洗衣粉銷售情況。

  • It actually was down 190 basis points year-over-year and was down 200 basis points sequentially. And you might be scratch your head about why would that be, but you guys probably have this in your Circana data as well. But a large premium brand is actually down 900 basis points sequentially and 600 basis points year-over-year. Of course, that's not the whole story. Couponing is not tracked.

    實際上同比下降了 190 個基點,環比下降了 200 個基點。你可能會摸不著頭腦為什麼會這樣,但你們的 Circana 數據中可能也有這個。但大型高端品牌實際上環比下降了 900 個基點,比去年同期下降了 600 個基點。當然,這還不是故事的全部。不追蹤優惠券。

  • It's not in the consumption numbers. But that would explain how you went from 33.5 sold on deal in Q1 to 31.6 in Q2. So it was largely driven by a large brand. If you look at litter, Q1 versus Q2, that's a different story. Q1 sold-on deal was about 15.5% and Q2 was a little over 18% like 18.3%. So it's up sequentially.

    這不在消費數字中。但這可以解釋為什麼你的交易銷售量從第一季的 33.5 上升到第二季的 31.6。所以它很大程度上是由大品牌推動的。如果你看看 Q1 和 Q2 的垃圾,那就是另一回事了。第一季的銷售量約為 15.5%,第二季略高於 18%,約 18.3%。所以是依序上來的。

  • But that was generally driven by one competitor. They're sold-on deal Q1 versus Q2, almost doubled. It's 24% for this other brand in Q2. So, I would say, as far as our brands go, as I said, we had an all-time high share in the quarter in liquid laundry and also very close to an all-time high share for litter in Q2. But that's to give you a little bit of color on promotions.

    但這通常是由一位競爭對手推動的。第一季的銷售量與第二季相比幾乎翻了一番。第二季度另一個品牌的比例為 24%。因此,我想說,就我們的品牌而言,正如我所說,我們在本季度的液體洗衣方面擁有歷史最高的份額,並且在第二季度的垃圾方面也非常接近歷史最高的份額。但這是為了為你的促銷活動增添一點色彩。

  • Unit dose is, it's kind of the same story as well, Q1 to Q2, just round numbers went from 26% to 31% on that's year-over-year, I'm sorry. But sequentially, it went from 26% to 36%. So, there's a lot of big changes happening in each of the categories. But I would say, if you're just looking at the second quarter, you wouldn't say it's any more promotional. It's just an anomaly with one brand in liquid laundry and one brand in litter swinging the numbers.

    單位劑量也是同樣的情況,從第一季到第二季度,只是整數從 26% 增加到 31%,與去年同期相比,我很抱歉。但隨後,它從 26% 上升到 36%。因此,每個類別都發生了許多重大變化。但我想說,如果你只看第二季度,你不會說它有更多的促銷作用。這只是一種反常現象,一個液體洗衣品牌和一個垃圾品牌的數字在搖擺不定。

  • Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

    Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then maybe just one follow-up question. Just going back to the slowdown in June and July. It sounds like it's across categories, but I don't know if there's any more color you can provide between your discretionary offerings and maybe some of your more essential categories.

    好的。偉大的。然後也許只是一個後續問題。回到六月和七月的放緩。聽起來像是跨類別的,但我不知道您是否可以在您的可自由支配產品和一些更重要的類別之間提供更多顏色。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. Well, I can give you some color on that. We look at the commentary of food companies. And we see callouts like, hi, the consumers being price conscious, we've got value seekers out there. And then we look at fast food chains, and we see spending is less per trip.

    是的。好吧,我可以給你一些顏色。我們來看看食品公司的評論。我們看到這樣的標註,嗨,消費者對價格敏感,我們有價值追求者。然後我們看看快餐連鎖店,我們發現每次旅行的支出減少了。

  • Then we look at our data, you look at staples and you see decelerating consumption in a lot of categories. I mean if you just look at the Circana and Nielsen data, you can see it. I guess the last thing here today is unemployment has ticked up a little bit.

    然後我們查看我們的數據,您查看主食,您會發現許多類別的消費正在放緩。我的意思是,如果你看看 Circana 和 Nielsen 的數據,你就可以看到這一點。我想今天最後一件事是失業率略有上升。

  • And as I said on the call, the expected dollar growth year-over-year, we expected to peel back as a result of price increases lapping. But we're also looking at volume. It's a year-over-year volume growth is also decelerating in the categories. We're doing better than the categories as evidenced by our brand success. But we would say the consumer is likely a bit weary balancing the household budget, making choices to satisfy their needs. We have three things going for us.

    正如我在電話會議上所說,預期的美元同比增長,我們預計會因價格上漲而回落。但我們也在關注數量。該類別的銷量年增率也在放緩。我們的品牌成功證明了我們比其他類別做得更好。但我們會說,消費者可能有點厭倦平衡家庭預算,做出選擇來滿足他們的需求。我們有三件事適合我們。

  • One is the strength of the brand. So, you saw in the release five out of seven brands grew share. If you went back to our old standard, 10 out of 14 of our major brands grew share in Q1 and in Q2. And so that's strength of the brands to be number one. Two is the innovation. You heard the proof points in my opening remarks. And number three, you know the split we have 60-40 between premium value. So therefore, we said, hey, given the category movement in June and July, we concluded 3% organic in the second half. It's probably a sensible outlook, but I can give you just some round numbers.

    一是品牌實力。因此,您在發布中看到七分之五的品牌份額有所增長。如果回到我們的舊標準,我們 14 個主要品牌中有 10 個在第一季和第二季的市佔率有所成長。這就是品牌排名第一的實力。二是創新。你們在我的開場白中聽到了證據。第三,您知道保費價值之間有 60-40 的比例。因此,我們說,鑑於 6 月和 7 月的品類變動,我們得出下半年有機成長 3% 的結論。這可能是個明智的前景,但我只能給你一些整數。

  • So, if you look at the laundry detergent category, May, June and the first few weeks of July, May was around 2%, June flat and then July down close to one point, and that's just in dollars. And then again, the Litter category, round numbers, May was 3% up; June, flat; and then July, up slightly. And if you look at another category like non-alcohol mouthwash, who goes 14, 13, 11, May, June, July, you see how the categories are kind of trending down. And I can give you other examples, but that's where we come out and say, based on everything we're hearing from other industries, unemployment, what we've seen in the Circana and Nielsen data, it seems pretty obvious to us that 3% makes a lot of sense for the next 6 months.

    所以,如果你看看洗衣粉類別,5月、6月和7月的前幾週,5月約為2%,6月持平,然後7月下降接近一個點,而且這只是以美元計算。再說一次,垃圾類別,五月的數字增加了 3%;六月,平淡;然後是七月,略有上升。如果你看看另一個類別,例如無酒精漱口水,在 14、13、11、5 月、6 月、7 月,你會發現這些類別的趨勢是下降的。我可以給你舉其他例子,但這就是我們所說的,根據我們從其他行業聽到的一切,失業率,我們在 Circana 和 Nielsen 數據中看到的情況,對我們來說,很明顯 3 %對於接下來的6 個月來說很有意義。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes. And Rupesh, this is Rick. I would just, to tack on to that, it's not just one category. That's kind of what Matt is going through. If you take the weighted average and you look at every category individually, there is a slight deceleration in most.

    是的。魯佩什,這是瑞克。我只是想強調一下,這不僅僅是一個類別。這就是馬特正在經歷的事情。如果你採用加權平均值並單獨查看每個類別,那麼大多數類別都會出現輕微的減速。

  • Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

    Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thank you all possible color.

    好的,太好了。謝謝所有可能的顏色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today comes from Chris Carey at Wells Fargo.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Hey, Chris.

    嘿,克里斯。

  • Christopher Carey - Analyst

    Christopher Carey - Analyst

  • Hi, guys. Rick, you mentioned, potentially keeping some dry powder for additional spending. Is that additional spending now factored into the outlook for the year? Or are you saying that you're now guarding a bit more of that dry powder should you need to deploy it in certain categories.

    嗨,大家好。你提到,里克可能會保留一些乾粉以用於額外支出。這些額外支出現在是否已納入今年的前景?或者你是說,如果你需要將其部署在某些類別中,你現在正在保護更多的乾粉。

  • And then what are the categories that you have your eye on, specifically, I think the Litter category, well take in the step up in promotional spending. I think we heard enough last night to corroborate that. But can you just expand a bit on the dry powder piece and just what you're kind of preparing for?

    然後,您關注的是哪些類別,特別是我認為垃圾類別,我們將在促銷支出方面採取措施。我想我們昨晚聽到的足以證實這一點。但是你能稍微擴展一下乾粉部分以及你正在準備的內容嗎?

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes. No worries. I would say, it's really the second in your example, it's dry powder is, if categories further decline, if the promotional environment heats up because volume growth gets harder to come by, we are just we're saying we're ready for it.

    是的。不用擔心。我想說,這實際上是你的例子中的第二個,它是乾粉,如果品類進一步下降,如果促銷環境升溫,因為銷量增長變得更加困難,我們只是說我們已經準備好了。

  • We're prepared if that happens, we haven't deployed it yet, but if it happens, we will. And that's really primarily around our household businesses like laundry and litter. And then, of course, as the category is down for vitamins that would be applicable as well.

    如果發生這種情況,我們已經做好準備,我們還沒有部署它,但如果發生,我們會的。這實際上主要圍繞著我們的家庭業務,例如洗衣和垃圾處理。當然,隨著維生素類別的減少,維生素也適用。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. And the other thing is you heard us talk about the success we're having in so many categories with our new products and that's where we've concentrated our promotions, displays, et cetera, not just in the household but also in our personal care products. And we got the marketing coming behind it, too. We've got a lot more marketing in the second half behind those brands. So we definitely like our chances regardless of the slowing categories.

    是的。另一件事是,您聽到我們談論我們的新產品在如此多的類別中取得的成功,這就是我們集中促銷、展示等的地方,不僅在家庭領域,而且在我們的個人護理領域產品。我們也得到了背後的行銷支援。下半年我們在這些品牌背後進行了更多的行銷。因此,無論類別放緩如何,我們都絕對希望獲得機會。

  • Christopher Carey - Analyst

    Christopher Carey - Analyst

  • Okay. Makes sense. One quick follow-up is just on the 3% and kind of thinking that's the right range for the next 6 months. Did I hear you correctly, it's a bit about category, which makes sense. You're gaining share. Where -- just given the trend line, where are you keeping a particular eye on regarding whether maybe by Q4, we're talking about 2% or something of the sort.

    好的。說得通。一個快速的後續行動就是 3%,並認為這是未來 6 個月的正確範圍。我沒聽錯吧,這有點關於類別,這是有道理的。你正在獲得份額。就給定趨勢線而言,您在哪裡特別關注是否到第四季度,我們正在談論 2% 或類似的數字。

  • I suppose your dry powder would help you counteract that. But any callouts on just the categories that you really have your eye on where things are developing a bit differently relative to your expectations? And then just connected to that, can you just frame the BMS business whether you're just seeing stabilization or whether there's any kind of sequential worsening. It's not really a BMS question, to be clear. But just given that's the business that feels less predictable, I just wanted to make sure I got a specific comment on that?

    我想你的乾粉可以幫助你抵消這個問題。但是,是否有任何關於您真正關注的類別的標註,其中事情的發展與您的期望略有不同?與此相關的是,您是否可以框架 BMS 業務,無論您只是看到穩定還是出現任何形式的連續惡化。需要明確的是,這其實並不是 BMS 的問題。但考慮到這項業務感覺不太可預測,我只是想確保我得到了對此的具體評論?

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. Well, we're in 16, 17 categories. If you just graft those categories and you just see pretty much across the board softening, so it's not just, hey, it's one or two big categories. We think it's really broad-based. So consequently they're all on the table for keep an eye on for the second half.

    是的。嗯,我們分為 16、17 個類別。如果你只是嫁接這些類別,你會看到幾乎全面的軟化,所以這不僅僅是一兩個大類別。我們認為它的基礎非常廣泛。因此,他們都將在下半場受到關注。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Framing the bottom in business.

    建立業務底部。

  • Christopher Carey - Analyst

    Christopher Carey - Analyst

  • Are you stable or is it faster than other businesses? Just maybe trying to ring- fence vitamins versus everything else where you're clearly had a lot of relative momentum for those categories?

    你們比其他企業穩定還是更快?也許只是試圖將維生素與其他你顯然對這些類別有很大相對動力的產品區分開來?

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. Well, the category, I gave some numbers there before about May, June, July for a bunch of different categories. Vitamins if you do May, June, July category dollars down 1, down 2, down 1 at May, June, July. So it's more us than the category and we have not been able to renovate our portfolio as fast as we had hoped.

    是的。嗯,對於類別,我之前給了一些關於五月、六月、七月的一些不同類別的數字。維生素,如果你做5月、6月、7月類別美元,則在5月、6月、7月下降1、下降2、下降1。因此,這更多的是我們而不是類別,我們無法像我們希望的那樣快速更新我們的產品組合。

  • And some of it is the retailers how much additional shelf-space will they change your shelf position et cetera. And some of it is also the speed at which we can renovate the portfolio. So I'd say it's more on us frankly than the external environment. We know we need to do and I think we think about how good we would be, if we could get that one turn around considering how all the other businesses are doing well, but yes it's more work to do there, Chris.

    其中一些是零售商將改變你的貨架位置多少額外的貨架空間等等。其中一部分還在於我們更新產品組合的速度。所以我想說,坦白說,這更多的是我們自己而不是外在環境。我們知道我們需要做,我想我們會考慮如果我們能夠扭轉局面,考慮到所有其他業務的表現如何,我們會做得有多好,但是,是的,克里斯,還有更多的工作要做。

  • Christopher Carey - Analyst

    Christopher Carey - Analyst

  • Okay. All right. Thanks so much.

    好的。好的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

  • Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

    Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. I had a question on your organic growth guidance. Matt, I believe you mentioned that your guidance assumes the underlying category growth remains pressured, but does your guidance also assume further slowdown from here? Just trying to understand potential downside risk? And then how do you see the balance of price mix and volumes playing out, especially in the context of the category slowdown?

    謝謝。早安.我對你們的有機成長指導有疑問。馬特,我相信您提到您的指導假設基本類別增長仍然面臨壓力,但您的指導是否也假設從現在開始進一步放緩?只是想了解潛在的下行風險?那麼您如何看待價格組合和銷售的平衡,特別是在類別放緩的背景下?

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes, well, look it’s the categories has slowed down. Some of them, for example, laundry and litter you get to July pretty much flattish. So when you have flat categories, the only way you're going to grow is you have to take share. And obviously we like our chances because that's what we've been doing so far this year with -- especially driven by our new products.

    是的,好吧,看看類別已經放慢了。其中一些,例如,七月的洗衣和垃圾處理幾乎平淡無奇。因此,當你的產品類別扁平化時,你要實現成長的唯一方法就是佔領市場份額。顯然,我們喜歡我們的機會,因為這就是我們今年迄今為止一直在做的事情——尤其是在我們的新產品的推動下。

  • A lot of our share growth in litter was driven by Hardball our new launch there. So now we're not saying, hey, this is going to this graph if you're going to graph it is going to continue to go down the rest of the year. We're just saying it looks like a step change from the first 5 months of the year to where we are now and I think it's more likely than not that it will stay this way to the rest of the year.

    我們在垃圾中所佔份額的增長很大程度上是由我們在那裡新推出的 Hardball 推動的。所以現在我們並不是說,嘿,如果你要繪製圖表,它會在今年剩餘時間內繼續下降。我們只是說,從今年前 5 個月到現在的情況,這看起來像是一個階躍變化,我認為這種情況很可能會持續到今年剩餘時間。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes. We still think categories are going to grow and we're going to take share. So that's how we get to our 3% for the back half. And then in terms of price volume mix it's kind of unchanged from what we've said before. We're primarily a volume-driven organic growth grower in the last four quarters and that will continue we think for the next two.

    是的。我們仍然認為品類將會成長,我們將會佔據份額。這就是我們如何達到後半段 3% 的目標。然後就價格數量組合而言,它與我們之前所說的沒有變化。在過去的四個季度中,我們主要是銷售驅動的有機成長種植者,我們認為未來兩個季度將繼續如此。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. So this might help you too. If you look at dry shampoo, the dry shampoo first 5 months of the year was double digits I assume May was 12%. And if you look at June, July it's more like 6%, 7%. So category is still growing just not growing as fast. So it looks like it's just kind of a notch down. And this is where innovation is really going to matter I think going forward.

    是的。所以這也可能對你有幫助。如果你看看乾洗洗髮水,今年前 5 個月的乾洗洗髮精比例是兩位數,我猜 5 月是 12%。如果你看看六月、七月,它更像是 6%、7%。因此,品類仍在成長,只是成長速度沒有那麼快。所以看起來它只是下降了一個檔次。我認為,這就是未來創新真正重要的地方。

  • Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

    Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

  • All right. That's helpful. And then my second question is on your marketing investment that you called out for Q2 three. And I guess I'm curious to understand how much of that step-up that you expect in Q2 three and said essentially new incremental, it really just a shift coming out of Q2 where your spend levels, we're a little bit below what we had anticipated. And then should we expect sustained spending levels into Q4? And I'm talking about that in the context of some of your new launches.

    好的。這很有幫助。然後我的第二個問題是關於您在第二季第三季呼籲的行銷投資。我想我很想知道您期望在第二季第三季增加多少,並說本質上是新的增量,這實際上只是第二季的一個轉變,您的支出水平,我們略低於我們已經預料到了。那麼我們是否應該預期第四季的支出水準會持續維持?我是在你們發布的一些新產品的背景下談論這一點的。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes, I'll take that, Bonnie. So our Q2 marketing spend was right where we expected it to be. We were at 10.1%. If you take a big step back we spent quite a bit of marketing in Q4 in 2023. And we had one of our best new product years ever this year on par. And we're taking hundreds of basis points out of the marketing spending that would be naturally in Q4 if you kept it flat and putting that throughout the year. And so Q1 was up 150, Q2 was up 100, Q3 is going to be up significantly more like Q1 than Q2 and then Q4 will be down significantly because we just want to get that phasing correct to support new products.

    是的,我會接受的,邦妮。因此,我們第二季的行銷支出符合我們的預期。我們當時的比例是 10.1%。如果退一步說,我們在 2023 年第四季花費了大量行銷費用。今年我們迎來了有史以來最好的新產品年之一。如果保持持平,我們將從第四季度的行銷支出中扣除數百個基點,並將其放在全年中。因此,第一季度增長了150,第二季度增長了100,第三季度的增長將明顯更像第一季度,而不是第二季度,然後第四季度將大幅下降,因為我們只是希望正確調整階段以支持新產品。

  • Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

    Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

  • Okay. All right. Thank you for that.

    好的。好的。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next up, we'll hear from Peter Grom at UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

    接下來,我們將聽取瑞銀集團 (UBS) 彼得‧格羅姆 (Peter Grom) 的發言。請繼續。您的線路已開通。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and hope you're doing well on. Maybe just one quick housekeeping. I think the release mentioned at the domestic consumption outpacing sales primarily due to some retail inventory reductions. Can you maybe just talk about that? Where did you see the reductions?

    謝謝,接線生。大家早安,希望你們一切順利。也許只是一次快速的家事服務。我認為發布中提到的國內消費超過銷售主要是由於一些零售庫存的減少。你能談談這個嗎?您在哪裡看到了減少的情況?

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes. So we said there were two reasons why Circana I would say 6% and domestic organic was 3.8%. So the 200 basis points of a disconnect it was one we had talked about before which was we had a HERO pipe in a year ago. And then the second one which actually was more of a surprise for us was retail inventory adjustment in the quarter. That was primarily on laundry, but I would tell you there's more noise in the system these days as categories start to move around from retailers on how they manage inventory. We are at good levels across the chain and we're set up for success.

    是的。所以我們說有兩個原因,為什麼 Circana 我會說 6%,而國內有機食品是 3.8%。因此,200 個基點的脫節是我們之前討論過的,一年前我們有一個 HERO 管道。第二個實際上更令我們驚訝的是本季的零售庫存調整。這主要是在洗衣方面,但我想告訴你,隨著零售商如何管理庫存,類別開始發生變化,現在系統中出現了更多噪音。我們在整個鏈條上處於良好的水平,我們已經為成功做好了準備。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • That's helpful, Rick. And then kind of going back to the category discussion, but maybe shifting gears to kind of international. Can you just talk about what you're seeing from an international perspective both from an underlying category standpoint, but also when we think about the 3% implied back half growth on a total company basis, what do you expect to see from your international business?

    這很有幫助,瑞克。然後回到類別討論,但可能會轉向國際化。您能否從國際角度談談您所看到的情況,無論是從基本類別的角度,還是當我們考慮公司整體基礎上3% 的隱含後半增長時,您希望從您的國際業務中看到什麼?

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. If you know our international business had a very strong first half. So we expect them to still punch above their weight for the full year. Our algorithm is international is going to grow 8% on an annual basis and they're tracking above that right now.

    是的。如果你知道我們的國際業務上半年表現非常強勁。因此,我們預計他們全年的表現仍將超出預期。我們的演算法是國際化的,每年將成長 8%,他們現在正在追蹤這個數字。

  • Before I give you some remarks with respect to the U.S. consumer, we're still keeping an eye on the international consumer as well. So far things have been holding up pretty well. They've been more resilient at least in our markets and in our categories so far, but I think the commentary that I had before is more focused on the U.S. than international, but still it's something to keep an eye on, Peter. But right now, it's not a worry.

    在我對美國消費者發表一些評論之前,我們仍在關注國際消費者。到目前為止,一切進展順利。到目前為止,他們至少在我們的市場和我們的類別中更具彈性,但我認為我之前的評論更多地關注美國而不是國際,但這仍然是值得關注的事情,彼得。但現在,這並不擔心。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • And to just give you a little bit more granularity if our full year call for international is 8% we saw around 9% for the first half. So that would mean we think it's around 7% in the back half.

    如果我們全年的國際需求為 8%,那麼我們上半年的國際需求為 9% 左右。所以這意味著我們認為後半部的比例約為 7%。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

    偉大的。非常感謝。我會把它傳遞下去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Okay. Steve Powers that Deutsche Bank. Your line is open for our next question.

    好的。史蒂夫·鮑爾斯是德意志銀行。您的熱線可以回答我們的下一個問題。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Okay. That was very enthusiastic. So the shipments versus consumption discussion that Peter just started, I guess just extend it, I guess I'm curious whether you have visibility any known timing differences favorable or unfavorable as we go into 3Q, 4Q?

    好的。那是非常熱情的。因此,彼得剛開始的出貨量與消費量討論,我想只是延長它,我想我很好奇,當我們進入第三季度、第四季度時,您是否能看到任何已知的有利或不利的時間差異?

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes. At this point in time we don't have any I mean there are different classes of trade always talk about store closures or rightsizing and so all that's kind of baked into our outlook. It's a little noisier than normal I'd say. We've got caught by surprise a little bit on the one in Q2, but the good thing is we still despite that we still met or beat our outlook on organic.

    是的。目前我們還沒有任何消息,我的意思是,不同類別的交易總是談論商店關閉或規模調整,所以所有這些都融入了我們的前景。我想說的是,它比正常情況下有點吵。我們對第二季的情況感到有點驚訝,但好消息是,儘管我們仍然達到或超越了我們對有機產品的預期。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. So drug and dollar are the two classes of trade that a little bit turbulent I guess right way to say it, looking ahead, but we got a pretty good handle on what we have out there and how we think that will move around as a result of store closures.

    是的。因此,毒品和美元是兩類有點動蕩的貿易,我認為正確的說法是,展望未來,但我們對現有的情況以及我們認為其結果將如何變化有了很好的把握商店關閉。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And this is, I guess, it's on the topic we've all been talking about in terms of the slowing in the kind of promotional environment. But I guess it's more just a philosophical question in this moment. So many companies as we've gone through the second quarter earnings season that are exiting the first half with higher gross margins than expected yourselves included.

    好的。偉大的。我想,這就是我們一直在談論的促銷環境放緩的話題。但我想此時此刻這更像是一個哲學問題。我們已經經歷了第二季財報季,許多公司在上半年結束時的毛利率都高於預期,其中包括你們自己。

  • Does that from your perspective raise the risk even more that seemingly rational levels of competition and what have you evolved alongside the slowing. It just seems like we're in a pretty precarious moment where so many companies have been calling for volume improvement or volume sustainability where things have been good.

    從您的角度來看,這是否會比看似理性的競爭水平增加更多的風險,以及隨著經濟放緩您發生了什麼變化?我們似乎正處於一個相當不穩定的時刻,許多公司一直呼籲在情況良好的情況下提高銷售量或保持銷售的可持續性。

  • Now things are slowing abruptly, but at the same time they're carrying more gross profit into that moment. And I'm just questioning whether you think that elevates the risk versus what you've seen historically that things do get more competitive more quickly.

    現在,事情突然放緩,但同時,他們在那一刻帶來了更多的毛利。我只是想問你是否認為這會增加風險,而你在歷史上看到的事情確實會更快變得更有競爭力。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. Well, look I think if people look back through history and you say when do people start promoting? And yes you're right when you have slowing categories. So that's why Rick said, it's probably prudent to say, hey, you got to have a top line call and a bottom line call that kind of bakes that in and so you have some dry powder if that were to happen, but that's why we spent so much time this morning talking about innovation. And we had an innovation beyond the categories that we described. So I think that's going to be really important to share growth and consumption growth in the next 6 to 12 months.

    是的。好吧,我想如果人們回顧歷史,你會說人們什麼時候開始促銷?是的,當你的類別放緩時,你是對的。所以這就是為什麼里克說,可能是謹慎地說,嘿,你必須有一個頂線電話和一個底線電話,這樣可以將其烘烤出來,所以如果發生這種情況,你就有一些乾粉,但這就是為什麼我們今天早上花了很多時間談論創新。我們的創新超越了我們所描述的類別。因此,我認為這對於未來 6 到 12 個月的分享成長和消費成長非常重要。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • One thought to add to that. Normally, if you look back at history really hyper promotional environments happen when categories are negative or volumes are negative. Neither of those things are happening. In general, it's still positive growth from a dollar perspective and still positive growth from a volume perspective. So that's context. Private label shares are still relatively stable. All those things are still true, but we're just trying to give a heads up to say there is something going on.

    有一個想法要補充一下。通常情況下,如果你回顧歷史,當品類為負或銷量為負時,就會出現真正的超級促銷環境。這兩件事都沒有發生。整體而言,從美元角度來看仍是正成長,從數量角度來看仍是正成長。這就是上下文。自有品牌份額仍然相對穩定。所有這些事情仍然是真的,但我們只是想提醒大家,有一些事情正在發生。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. So Steve, that's sort of our MO. We were always palms up and we see what we're seeing. So that's what we're doing today.

    是的。史蒂夫,這就是我們的行事方式。我們總是手掌向上,我們看到我們所看到的。這就是我們今天所做的。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you very much.

    好的。我很感激。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll hear from Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley. Tara.

    接下來,我們將聽取摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 達拉·莫森尼安 (Dara Mohsenian) 的演講。塔拉.

  • Dara Mohsenian - Analyst

    Dara Mohsenian - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning, guys. So I just wanted to touch on a couple of pieces of your portfolio. THERABREATH, obviously, continues to post very strong growth. You could see that in the scanner data or your call commentary on market share. But it is a higher-priced product. So just hoping you could give us a bit more detail on the brand performance.

    你好。早上好傢伙。所以我只想談談你的作品集中的幾件作品。顯然,THERABREATH 持續保持強勁成長。您可以在掃描器資料或市場份額的電話評論中看到這一點。但它是一種價格較高的產品。希望您能為我們提供更多有關品牌表現的詳細資訊。

  • And as we move through the quarter, the performance, any signs of trade down there is the therapeutic benefit of the product really mitigating any impact from a weaker consumer and just your view on growth potential for that brand as you look out over the next few quarters, given the strong momentum recently. And then just on the VMS side, I understand all your points around the intervention in terms of packaging forms, marketing. Just any more detail on when the timing of some of those things may pay off and how you guys think about that given the progress hasn't been as strong as expected so far. Thanks

    當我們進入本季度時,業績、任何貿易下降的跡像都表明該產品的治療效果確實減輕了消費者疲軟的影響,並且當您展望接下來的幾個季度時,您對該品牌的增長潛力的看法鑑於最近的強勁勢頭。然後就 VMS 而言,我理解您在包裝形式、行銷方面的介入的所有觀點。只是更詳細地說明其中一些事情的時機何時會得到回報,以及鑑於到目前為止進展並不像預期的那麼強勁,你們對此有何看法。謝謝

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes, we'll look at here, THERABREATH is a big success story for the company. As you know, we have 17% share, we're number 3 in the category. Number 1 is Listerine at 38% and Crest at 18%. And we've been getting more facings from different retailers and different classes of trade and the launch into antiseptic is something that we think is going to be a source of growth for us for a good long time because when -- 30% of the category.

    是的,我們在這裡看看,THERABREATH 是該公司的一個巨大成功故事。如您所知,我們擁有 17% 的份額,在該類別中排名第三。排名第一的是李施德林(Listerine),佔 38%,佳潔士(Crest),佔 18%。我們已經從不同的零售商和不同類別的貿易中獲得了更多的面孔,我們認為防腐劑的推出將在很長一段時間內成為我們增長的源泉,因為當——30%的類別。

  • And we now have a 4% share of the non-alcohol, so we've got a long way to go there. So I would say, we feel really good about THERABREATH and yes, it's more highly priced, but that's not something new. We don't promote the product. I think one interesting proof point is, if you look at what happened on Prime Day, THERABREATH, actually, was the number 3 brand an unpromoted and we had a really good Prime Day for THERABREATH. So there's lots of indicators to say this brand has a lot of staying power even as a premium brand in this environment. And then with respect to vitamins.

    現在我們的非酒精飲料佔比為 4%,所以我們還有很長的路要走。所以我想說,我們對 THERABREATH 感覺非常好,是的,它的價格更高,但這並不是什麼新鮮事。我們不推銷該產品。我認為一個有趣的證據是,如果你看看 Prime Day 發生的事情,THERABREATH 實際上是排名第三的品牌,但沒有促銷,我們為 THERABREATH 度過了一個非常好的 Prime Day。因此,有許多指標表明該品牌即使在這種環境下作為高端品牌也具有很強的持久力。然後是維生素。

  • Yes, I think then that's probably going to be over the next 6 to 12 months. We do not expect we're going to be able to stabilize that as we had planned to when we started the year. We thought that in the first half, we'd be down and then by midyear, things start to turn around, so we would be exiting the year with a stable business, no loss of share. I don't see that happening right now. But we got lots of different irons in the fire here and some are working, some aren't. We just need a little more time.

    是的,我認為這可能會在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內發生。我們預計我們無法像年初計劃的那樣穩定這一局面。我們認為上半年我們會下滑,然後到年中,情況開始好轉,所以我們將以穩定的業務結束這一年,不會損失份額。我現在不認為這種情況會發生。但我們這裡有很多不同的熨斗,有些可以用,有些不能用。我們只是需要多一點時間。

  • Dara Mohsenian - Analyst

    Dara Mohsenian - Analyst

  • Thanks, Ed.

    謝謝,艾德。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lauren Lieberman of Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

    巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。請繼續。您的線路已開通。

  • Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

    Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning. So sticking with THERABREATH and also layering in HERO, if I may, both brands continue to have very, very strong growth, but they have decelerated. And we were looking at it more than anything else is kind of law of large numbers.

    謝謝。早安.因此,堅持 THERABREATH 並在 HERO 中分層,如果可以的話,這兩個品牌繼續保持非常非常強勁的成長,但它們已經減速。我們最關心的是大數定律。

  • But I was curious, if you could comment on what you're seeing in the spaces in which those brands compete in terms of those category growth rates changing? And as we look forward, this law of large numbers, like do we think they keep migrating down to earth so that growth, isn't 30%, but it's like 20% as we move forward and how to frame that because I think it's important in terms of the big picture, the aggregate outlook for the company is the growth rate of those 2 brands actually matters a lot.

    但我很好奇,您能否評論一下您在這些品牌競爭的領域中所看到的品類成長率變化?當我們展望未來時,這個大數定律,就像我們認為它們會不斷遷移到地球一樣,以便增長,不是30%,但隨著我們前進,它會達到20%,以及如何構建它,因為我認為這是就大局而言,重要的是,公司的整體前景是這兩個品牌的成長率實際上非常重要。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. Well, look, I'll give you some category data, like the acne category May, June, July is steady, up 8% May, June and July. So no worries there. And we've got the number 1 brand in the category, not only in the category but also in patches, subcategory at 54% share.

    是的。嗯,你看,我給你一些品類數據,例如痤瘡品類五六七月份是穩定的,五六七月份增長了8%。所以不用擔心。我們在該類別中擁有排名第一的品牌,不僅在該類別中,而且在補丁、子類別中也佔有 54% 的份額。

  • So i that's not a worry for us right now, either one of those brands. Of course, with the passage of time, you're not going to have 30% growth rates. This is just math as you think ahead to 2025. But we're still expecting that we're going to have really strong years next year.

    所以我現在對這些品牌中的任何一個都不擔心。當然,隨著時間的推移,你不會有 30% 的成長率。這只是你對 2025 年的展望的數學。但我們仍然預計明年將會有非常強勁的表現。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes. And just to add to that, you're right, I think 30% or 40% growth. And as that comes down, it's because we're really lapping distribution in general, but consumption is just still extremely, extremely strong. And I would say, we're not going to point to a growth rate in the future, but we still have to be double digit, strong double-digit growth as we look out over the horizon.

    是的。除此之外,你是對的,我認為成長 30% 或 40%。歸根結底,這是因為我們總體上確實在優化分配,但消費仍然非常非常強勁。我想說,我們不會指出未來的成長率,但當我們展望未來時,我們仍然必須實現兩位數、強勁的兩位數成長。

  • Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

    Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And then if I can ask a second question and market share trend. And so we are still on Nielsen. So I know that there are some pretty significant differences lately between the US and into Kona. And coverage matters for life's test will take that as a preamble.

    好的,太好了。然後我可以問第二個問題和市佔率趨勢嗎?所以我們仍然選擇尼爾森。所以我知道最近美國和科納之間存在著一些相當顯著的差異。覆蓋範圍對於生命的考驗至關重要,將以此作為序言。

  • And that is we see it market share and such in aggregate were softer in June, July to along with the categories slowing that some of the share performance level that that particularly if you take out here Antara. So just if you could comment on that, and again, that might be completely different than what you're seeing in your discussion. I'd like to know if that's the case, if not, what is it?

    也就是說,我們看到它的市場份額和總體份額在 6 月、7 月都比較疲軟,而且一些類別的股票表現水平也有所放緩,特別是如果你在這裡考慮 Antara 的話。因此,如果您可以對此發表評論,那麼這可能與您在討論中看到的完全不同。我想知道是不是這樣,如果不是,那是什麼?

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes. Thanks, Lauren. I would just say that's not what we're seeing. In Q1, I think we were 10 out of 14. If you go back to our old vernacular of all of our power brands because this question a little bit more detail, so 10 out of 14, I think Q2 was 10 to 14. I think July, June or July was 9 of 14. So no real change.

    是的。謝謝,勞倫。我只想說這不是我們所看到的。在第一季度,我認為我們是 14 家中的 10 家。如果你回到我們所有動力品牌的老白話,因為這個問題更詳細一些,所以 14 中的 10,我認為第二季度是 10 到 14。我認為七月、六月或七月是 14 月中的 9 月。所以沒有真正的改變。

  • Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

    Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

  • And what about the pace of that growth, though, not just like is it up, but is it up less?

    那麼,成長的速度又如何呢?

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Well, I think it's reflected in our second half call, right? We said we grew 5% organic in the first half, 3% in the second half. So I think that's all baked in the numbers but we wouldn't give like mid-quarter.

    嗯,我認為這反映在我們下半場的判罰中,對吧?我們說上半年有機成長 5%,下半年有機成長 3%。所以我認為這一切都在數字中,但我們不會像季度中期那樣給出。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • It's more of a category. We still feel really good about the share. We expect share gains in the second half, and we're positioned to do that.

    它更多的是一個類別。我們仍然對這次分享感到非常滿意。我們預計下半年的份額將會上漲,並且我們已經準備好做到這一點。

  • Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

    Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thank you.

    好的,太好了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala at Jefferies. Go ahead. Your line is open.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kaumil Gajrawala。前進。您的線路已開通。

  • Kaumil Gajrawala - Analyst

    Kaumil Gajrawala - Analyst

  • Hi. If I could ask a little more on VMS, which is not that long ago, you were increasing capacity for the space. I'm curious if anything has changed, maybe there's some product changes you need to make or innovations you need to catch up on. But has your view generally about that segment changed?

    你好。如果我能多問一些關於 VMS 的問題,就在不久前,你們正在增加空間的容量。我很好奇是否有任何變化,也許您需要進行一些產品更改或需要趕上創新。但您對該細分市場的整體看法是否發生了變化?

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Well, look, it's a very competitive category. They're well over 60 competitors. There aren't a lot of barriers to entry simply because you could find commands to make your product. So if you get an idea and catchy brand name, you can pretty much enter.

    嗯,看,這是一個競爭非常激烈的類別。他們有超過 60 名競爭對手。進入壁壘並不多,因為您可以找到製造產品的命令。因此,如果您有一個想法和朗朗上口的品牌名稱,您幾乎可以進入。

  • So that's really what we've been experiencing. And of course, we've definitely struggled in the bricks and mortar. We do have some bright lights here on the online class of trade. So we're doing extremely well on Amazon, we've got a lot of growth there, but then that's a smaller piece of the pie. We've mentioned before renovating the category, meaning that we're this year, we've been changing the formulas to improve the consumer experience, meaning that taste and bite, we're launching into chewables, different forms. But all those have gone slower than expected. And then we haven't got a lot of help from the retailers.

    這就是我們所經歷的。當然,我們確實在實體中苦苦掙扎。我們在線上貿易類別方面確實有一些亮點。所以我們在亞馬遜上做得非常好,我們在那裡有了很大的成長,但那隻是一塊較小的蛋糕。我們之前提到更新這個類別,這意味著我們今年一直在改變配方以改善消費者體驗,這意味著味道和咬合,我們將推出不同形式的咀嚼片。但所有這些都比預期要慢。然後我們沒有從零售商那裡得到很多幫助。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes. And remember for context, right, this category grew through COVID on a rocket ship pace, it grew probably over 50% over four or five years. And so everyone's rush in to put the capacity in to accommodate that and the category itself is still finding its feet as it comes off of those highs.

    是的。請記住,請記住,這一類別在新冠疫情期間以火箭般的速度增長,在四到五年內增長了 50% 以上。因此,每個人都爭先恐後地投入資金來適應這種情況,而該類別本身在擺脫這些高點時仍在站穩腳跟。

  • That's why we keep seeing negative growth. And then there's other forms now. It's just not hard pill and gummy. There's liquid. There's powder. There's other forms. And so that's a category story, and we're being impacted by that as well. But as Matt said, we think innovation is super important. We're trying to move the speed of light to get the right innovation out there as fast as possible.

    這就是為什麼我們不斷看到負成長。現在還有其他形式。它只是不是硬藥丸和軟糖。有液體。有粉啊還有其他形式。這是一個類別故事,我們也受到了影響。但正如馬特所說,我們認為創新非常重要。我們正在努力以光速移動,以盡可能快地實現正確的創新。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. We call it out because there has been a struggle for us.

    是的。我們之所以大聲疾呼,是因為我們經歷了一場鬥爭。

  • Kaumil Gajrawala - Analyst

    Kaumil Gajrawala - Analyst

  • Yes, essentially, you're sort of, when you first started talking about the category it sounds quite different from how you like to be positioned or how do you like a category to be positioned. Does it still make, we just saw Clorox divested their VMS. I recognize it's different but does it still make sense to own?

    是的,本質上,當你第一次開始談論這個類別時,它聽起來與你喜歡的定位方式或你喜歡一個類別的定位方式有很大不同。它仍然有效嗎?我承認它是不同的,但擁有它仍然有意義嗎?

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. Well, we evaluate all of our businesses, all of our categories annually. So obviously, we put a lot of investment into this but I can't go any further than that.

    是的。嗯,我們每年都會評估我們所有的業務、所有類別。顯然,我們為此投入了大量投資,但我不能再進一步了。

  • Kaumil Gajrawala - Analyst

    Kaumil Gajrawala - Analyst

  • Yes. Thank you.

    是的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

    安德里亞·特謝拉,摩根大通。請繼續你的問題。

  • Andrea Teixeira - Analyst

    Andrea Teixeira - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. I was just hoping to see if you can call I mean, shift a little bit of the conversation into M&A. And I know you've been looking at your Analyst Day, you had said you had looked at back last year around 4 potential acquisitions. None of those kind of future profile or enough to be attractive. So I was hoping to see what has changed anything that we should be thinking of? Is that more the targets are not willing or the private equity funds not coming up with some interesting ones for you?

    謝謝。早安.我只是希望看看你是否可以打電話給我,我的意思是,將談話的一部分轉移到併購上。我知道你一直在關注分析師日,你曾說過你去年回顧了大約 4 項潛在收購。這些未來的形像都不足以吸引人。所以我希望看看是什麼改變了我們應該思考的事情?是目標公司不願意還是私募基金沒有提供你一些有趣的專案?

  • What is preventing you to growing organically, which is something that you historically have done? And then also just a housekeeping on WATERPIK. I think that's the only brand that we really didn't talk about and WATERPIK in dry shampoo just thinking of like how, I mean, you quoted in the first quarter there was a 1% headwind from WATERPIK and gummies each. So it's hoping to see what was the headwind in the second quarter, if any, assuming there's still headwinds there? And what is embedded in the second half?

    是什麼阻礙了你的有機成長,而這是你過去做過的事?然後還只是在 WATERPIK 上做家事。我認為這是唯一一個我們真正沒有談論過的品牌,WATERPIK 在乾洗洗髮水中只是想到,我的意思是,你在第一季度引用了 WATERPIK 和軟糖各有 1% 的逆風。因此,假設仍然存在逆風,它希望看到第二季度的逆風是什麼(如果有的話)?下半場嵌入了什麼?

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. As far as M&A, you're correct in that last year, we looked at 4 or 5 different brands and we didn't pull the trigger on any of them. But what I can tell you is that we're as busy as ever right now. We're always looking at opportunities and they are out there and we just kind of stick to our criteria.

    是的。至於併購,去年你是對的,我們研究了 4 或 5 個不同的品牌,但我們沒有對其中任何一個進行收購。但我可以告訴你的是,我們現在和以前一樣忙碌。我們一直在尋找機會,機會就在那裡,我們只是堅持我們的標準。

  • But we do realize it's been 18 months since we made an acquisition. We have cash building up on the balance sheet as you'll see when we file the Q. But yes, we're very busy and the market is active.

    但我們確實意識到,距離我們進行收購已經過去 18 個月了。我們的資產負債表上有現金積累,正如您在提交問題時所看到的那樣。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • And then on WATERPIK the good news on WATERPIK is consumption is up high single, low double digits. So we really work through that retail inventory issue that we talked about last quarter. I would say WATERPIK flattish for this quarter. We think it's slightly down for the full year largely based on what happened in Q1 from a sales perspective. So not ignoring WATERPIK but I'd tell you that consumption looks good for WATERPIK.

    然後,在 WATERPIK 上,WATERPIK 上的好消息是消費量呈現高個位數成長,低兩位數成長。因此,我們確實解決了上季討論的零售庫存問題。我想說 WATERPIK 本季表現平平。我們認為全年略有下降,主要是基於第一季銷售角度的情況。所以不要忽視 WATERPIK,但我要告訴你,WATERPIK 的消費看起來不錯。

  • Andrea Teixeira - Analyst

    Andrea Teixeira - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll hear from Filippo Falorni at Citi.

    接下來,我們將聽取花旗銀行 Filippo Falorni 的演講。

  • Filippo Falorni - Analyst

    Filippo Falorni - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about the gross margin outlook for the second half. What have you embedded from a pricing standpoint that you're kind of comment on dry powder on promotional activities? And then from a commodity standpoint, are you seeing some modest inflation? What is the commodity outlook for the second half? Thank you.

    你好。大家,早安。我想問一下下半年的毛利率前景。從定價的角度來看,您對促銷活動中的乾粉有何評論?然後從大宗商品的角度來看,您是否看到了溫和的通貨膨脹?下半年大宗商品前景如何?謝謝。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes, sure. I would say inflation is maybe a little bit higher than when we talked about it 3 months ago. Pulp and paper are up. HDPE is up a little bit ethylene's up a little bit. But no change from a net perspective as productivity has come out a little bit better as well. Yes, we do have some trade and couponing and promotional spending assumed in the back half. Again, it's dry powder, not necessarily that we are going to do it. And we also want to spend behind our new products in terms of displays and support and whatnot. So that's kind of our assumption.

    是的,當然。我想說的是,通貨膨脹率可能比我們三個月前談論時還要高。紙漿和紙張上漲。HDPE 略有上漲,乙烯略有上漲。但從淨角度來看並沒有什麼變化,因為生產力也有所提升。是的,我們確實在後半部分假設了一些貿易、優惠券和促銷支出。再說一遍,這是乾粉,我們不一定要做。我們也希望在新產品的展示和支援等方面投入資金。這就是我們的假設。

  • Filippo Falorni - Analyst

    Filippo Falorni - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. We covered a lot of ground most of the portfolio. I wanted to kind of take it a different direction, I guess. And maybe if you could comment at all on Barry's departure because it's an area we've got a lot of questions from recently.

    偉大的。謝謝。大家,早安。我們涵蓋了大部分投資組合的大部分內容。我想我想採取不同的方向。也許您可以對巴里的離開發表評論,因為這是我們最近收到很多問題的領域。

  • Obviously key executive with the company is CMO and President of your Domestic Business and probably one of a handful points of interface with the investment community. So Matt, maybe just comment on how high a priority it is to refill that role maybe skill set you might be looking for? I know you see this with the company through early October and whether the search is going to include both internal and external candidates. So thanks for that.

    顯然,該公司的關鍵高管是首席行銷長兼國內業務總裁,並且可能是與投資界的少數接觸點之一。所以馬特,也許只是評論一下補充這個角色的優先順序有多高,或者你可能正在尋找的技能組合?我知道您會在 10 月初看到公司的這種情況,以及搜尋是否會包括內部和外部候選人。所以謝謝你。

  • Okay, I'll leave it there. Thank you.

    好吧,我就把它留在那裡。謝謝。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • All right, Kevin, that's a multipart question many of which I can't respond to. What I can say is that Barry has been here 11 years, had an eight-year stint international, three in the U.S., a big part of our success and sad to see him go here through early October. It's business as usual here. So we have some time to figure out how we're going to fill the position. But I think that's as detailed as we go into on a call like this.

    好吧,凱文,這是一個由多個部分組成的問題,其中許多我無法回答。我能說的是,巴里已經在這裡工作了11 年,在國家隊效力了8 年,在美國效力了3 年,這是我們成功的重要組成部分,很遺憾看到他來到這裡度過了10 月初。這裡一切如常。所以我們有一些時間來弄清楚如何填補這個職位。但我認為這就像我們在這樣的電話會議中所討論的那樣詳細。

  • Kevin Grundy - Analyst

    Kevin Grundy - Analyst

  • I'll leave it there. Thank you. Okay.

    我會把它留在那裡。謝謝。好的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Olivia Tong at Raymond James.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Olivia Tong。

  • Olivia Cheang - Analyst

    Olivia Cheang - Analyst

  • Great, thanks. My question is primarily around gross margin and trying to understand the upside in Q2. And then in terms of the deceleration in second half it sounds like that 100 basis points or so was primarily around the dry powder but wanted to see if there are other factors that are driving that expectation for a deceleration in the second half.

    萬分感謝。我的問題主要是圍繞毛利率並試圖了解第二季度的上行空間。然後就下半年的減速而言,聽起來 100 個基點左右主要是圍繞著乾粉的,但想看看是否還有其他因素推動下半年減速的預期。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes, deceleration for gross margin?

    是的,毛利率放緩?

  • Olivia Cheang - Analyst

    Olivia Cheang - Analyst

  • Yes, exactly.

    對,就是這樣。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. Okay. Well, in the quarter, we had favorability really because of mix. Within our personal care portfolio, we had higher-margin product sell even more than we expected and some of the lower-margin personal care products not sell as much. So that was kind of a tailwind in the price volume mix line.

    是的。好的。嗯,在本季度,我們確實因為混合而獲得了好感。在我們的個人護理產品組合中,我們的利潤率較高的產品銷售甚至超過了我們的預期,而一些利潤率較低的個人護理產品的銷售量則沒有那麼多。因此,這對價格數量組合線來說是一種順風。

  • That's what happened for the quarter. For the back half of the year, it's a couple of things. There's a little bit more inflation. It's not as favorable year-over-year personal care mix as those categories come in a little bit. But the dry powder we're talking about in terms of trading coupons in the back half as well. So those are probably the 2 or 3 things I'd point to in the back half.

    這就是本季發生的情況。今年下半年,有幾件事。通貨膨脹有點多了。與去年同期相比,它的個人護理組合併不像這些類別中出現的那麼有利。但是我們在後半部分談論的交易優惠券方面的乾粉也是如此。所以這些可能是我在後半部指出的兩三件事。

  • Olivia Cheang - Analyst

    Olivia Cheang - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anna Lizzul at Bank of America. You have our next question.

    美國銀行的安娜·利祖爾。你有我們的下一個問題。

  • John O'Keefe - Analyst

    John O'Keefe - Analyst

  • Thank you. This is Jon Keypour on the line for Anna. I also just want to say I'm glad Steve Powers is here because he opened the way for the question I have, which is. I guess, on pricing is there any risk that the promo environment gets to such a place that we see negative price in the back half.

    謝謝。我是喬恩‧基普爾(Jon Keypour),正在接聽安娜的電話。我也想說,我很高興史蒂夫鮑爾斯來到這裡,因為他為我提出的問題開闢了道路。我想,在定價方面,促銷環境是否有導致我們在後半段看到負價格的風險。

  • And then a follow-up to that in terms of the innovation pipeline and like route to market and kind of time to market given where the categories are stabilizing at this lower kind of growth rate and the idea that maybe this becomes a '25 issue as well. Are you guys able to pivot your innovation pipeline and have new products in market by next year that cater more towards, I guess, the mid or low end consumer more than potentially what you had in the pipeline last year or expected to have in the pipeline for next year? Thank you.

    然後,考慮到這些類別穩定在這種較低的成長率,以及可能這成為 25 年問題的想法,就創新管道和類似的上市途徑以及上市時間進行後續跟進出色地。你們是否能夠調整你們的創新管道,並在明年之前在市場上推出新產品,我猜這些新產品比你們去年在通路中或預期在通路中的產品更能迎合中低端消費者明年?謝謝。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. Well, there's two types of innovation. One is innovation where we're identifying a pain point or a need for the consumer. Another is when it comes to pack size which I think is what you're getting at. So yes, we're pretty good at pivoting quickly to create different price points in various categories in order to satisfy the consumer in a changing environment like this.

    是的。嗯,有兩種類型的創新。一是創新,我們確定消費者的痛點或需求。另一個是包裝尺寸,我認為這就是您所要了解的。所以,是的,我們非常擅長快速調整,在不同類別中創造不同的價格點,以便在如此不斷變化的環境中滿足消費者的需求。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • And then on your first question about volume and price mix as we look forward, we do not expect to have negative price in the back half of the year.

    然後,關於您關於銷售和價格組合的第一個問題,我們預計今年下半年不會出現負價格。

  • John O'Keefe - Analyst

    John O'Keefe - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Javier Escalante at Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 Javier Escalante。

  • Javier Manzo - Analyst

    Javier Manzo - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning, everyone. I have a couple of clarifications on the detergent side. One is it that whether you have enough, you mentioned that Deep Clean was 40% incremental. Do you have enough data to know whether this is people trading up ARM & HAMMER? Or you're gaining share, you're gaining users from other brands? The other -- I mean we both used to can and shows personal prices down. Do you think that that is promotional activity or that is a price correction?

    你好。大家,早安。我對洗滌劑方面有一些澄清。一是你是否足夠,你提到深度清潔是40%的增量。你有足夠的數據知道這是否是人們在交易 ARM & HAMMER 嗎?還是你正在獲得份額,你正在從其他品牌獲得用戶?另一個 - 我的意思是我們都曾經可以並顯示個人價格下降。您認為這是促銷活動還是價格調整?

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. On the first question, we fully anticipated when we launched the Deep Clean that you would have some ARM & HAMMER consumers' trade up. So Deep Clean is part of our good, better, best strategy. So good would be the basic ARM & HAMMER detergent and ARM & HAMMER with OxiClean is the better and Deep Clean is the best. So yes, we do have some data that as we have people trading up.

    是的。關於第一個問題,當我們推出Deep Clean時,我們就充分預料到會有一些ARM和HAMMER消費者進行交易。因此,深度清潔是我們良好、更好、最佳策略的一部分。那麼基本的 ARM & HAMMER 清潔劑就很好了,ARM & HAMMER 與 OxiClean 更好,而 Deep Clean 是最好的。所以,是的,我們確實有一些數據,因為我們有人進行交易。

  • And we also have consumers that are leaving other brands and migrating over to Deep Clean. And that's why we think, long term, Deep Clean is going to be a source of growth for the company.

    我們也有消費者離開其他品牌並轉向深度清潔。這就是為什麼我們認為從長遠來看,深度清潔將成為公司成長的來源。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes. We probably wouldn't comment much on looking at kind of data about Henkel or Persil or any of those things. We would just say we continue to gain share in laundry. And as the category is slowing a bit, we continue to gain share and do better in the market.

    是的。我們可能不會對有關漢高或寶瑩或任何此類事物的數據發表太多評論。我們只能說我們在洗衣業的份額繼續增加。隨著該類別的成長放緩,我們繼續獲得份額並在市場上做得更好。

  • Javier Manzo - Analyst

    Javier Manzo - Analyst

  • Understood. Fair. The other is curious about how fast this so-called dry powder can be deployed vis-a-vis retailers? And to what extent this is also contingent to supply chain, the strength of the supply chain because one of your competitors continue having issues with it. Thank you.

    明白了。公平的。另一個人好奇這種所謂的乾粉能以多快的速度部署到零售商身上?這在多大程度上也取決於供應鏈、供應鏈的強度,因為你的競爭對手之一仍然有問題。謝謝。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes, Javier. It's a fair question. Typically, as you're putting in incremental promotions, that maybe is a longer lead time. But if you want to heat up a promotion, that can be done relatively easier and you go after incremental volume that way as well or couponing. But again, it's dry powder is the key message.

    是的,哈維爾。這是一個公平的問題。通常,當您進行增量促銷時,交貨時間可能會更長。但如果你想加大促銷力度,這可以相對容易地完成,你也可以透過這種方式追求增量或優惠券。但同樣,它的乾粉是關鍵訊息。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question will come from Robert Moskow at TD Cowen.

    謝謝。我們的下一個問題將來自 TD Cowen 的 Robert Moskow。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • You have a lot of analysts covering your stock. That's glad to be.

    你有很多分析師關注你的股票。很高興能這樣。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. We're not doing an alphabetical order either.

    是的。我們也不按字母順序排列。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • But glad to participate. This year, it just -- as a newcomer, it looked like your new product pipeline was extraordinarily good. Like you have a lot of like really resonant products in a lot of different categories, all at once. As you think about it for next year, do you expect it to be as strong as it is this year? And in light of a slowing category growth and maybe some more value-seeking, is there anything you need to tweak in terms of the mix of premium versus more value-oriented products.

    但很高興參加。今年,作為一個新來者,你的新產品管道看起來非常好。就像你同時擁有許多不同類別的真正能引起共鳴的產品。當您考慮明年時,您預計它會像今年一樣強勁嗎?鑑於類別成長放緩以及可能更多的價值追求,您是否需要在優質產品與更有價值的產品的組合方面進行調整。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. Well, one thing I want to keep in mind about new products is, we're having a great year with all these new product ideas we came out with. But remember, we're going to have Year 2 of these next year. So you only have a partial year, only building distribution this year, in many cases, building awareness. We think the products that some of the ones I talked about and others will be big drivers next year. And on top of that, we have new product ideas coming as well.

    是的。嗯,關於新產品,我要記住的一件事是,我們推出了所有這些新產品創意,度過了美好的一年。但請記住,明年我們將迎來第二年。所以你只有部分年份,今年只能建立分銷,在很多情況下,建立意識。我們認為我談到的一些產品和其他產品將成為明年的主要動力。最重要的是,我們還有新的產品創意。

  • So like I said, I do think that in any environment, but particularly this one, new products are going to make the difference. And then your other question was tweaking the portfolio between premium and value. I've been with the company for 18 years, and the 60-40 split, it's now 63-37 premium value has been sustained over a couple of decades. So unlikely that's going to change in the near term. And that's why we always like our chances when you have periods with change in consumer-buying habits.

    正如我所說,我確實認為在任何環境下,尤其是在這個環境下,新產品都會帶來改變。然後你的另一個問題是在溢價和價值之間調整投資組合。我在這家公司工作了 18 年,從 60-40 的比例,到現在的 63-37 的溢價,已經持續了幾十年。因此這種情況在短期內不太可能改變。這就是為什麼我們總是希望在消費者購買習慣改變的時期抓住機會。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our final audience question today comes from the line of Mark Astrachan at Stifel.

    今天我們最後一個觀眾問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

  • Mark Astrachan - Analyst

    Mark Astrachan - Analyst

  • Yes, thanks. Good morning and thanks for squeezing me in here. Two quick ones. One, just asset prices on potential M&A, are you seeing it come down similarly to the market?

    對了謝謝。早安,謝謝你把我擠在這裡。兩個快的。一,只是潛在併購的資產價格,您是否看到它與市場類似地下跌?

  • And then on vitamins, just again, if you go back to when you bought the business, it was partly about adoption of the form factor of gummies there's more press out there not saying that I agree or don't agree with the efficacy of a gummy versus some other forms. Is that partly what's impacting the consumer in your business in gummies in general? Is there an opportunity to educate the consumer?

    然後在維生素方面,再一次,如果你回到購買該業務時,部分原因是採用軟糖的形狀因素,有更多的媒體沒有說我同意或不同意維生素E的功效。 。這是否是影響您的軟糖業務中消費者的部分原因?是否有機會教育消費者?

  • Or is there opportunity and tech to make the product more effective? If not, how quickly can you pivot to some of the other stuff that you talked about in terms of chewables and potentially powders and whatnot within the brands you have?

    或者是否有機會和技術可以使產品更有效?如果沒有,您能多快轉向您所談論的其他一些產品,例如咀嚼片和潛在的粉末以及您擁有的品牌內的其他產品?

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. As far as vitamins goes, yes, there's been quite a change over time. I think we bought the business in 2013, the gummies represented 3% of the market, and now it's in the 20s. So it's changed quite a bit. I would say as far as your comment about efficacy, I think it's more that people are moving to powders and chewables and other forms.

    是的。就維生素而言,是的,隨著時間的推移發生了很大的變化。我想我們是在 2013 年收購了這家公司,當時軟糖佔了 3% 的市場份額,現在已經是 20 多歲了。所以它改變了很多。我想說,就你對功效的評論而言,我認為人們更多地轉向粉末、咀嚼片和其他形式。

  • The larger vitamin category has pulled back. But remember, it's falling back from COVID. You had several years of growth in just a couple of years. So I think household penetration is greater as a result of COVID and that's kind of plateaued and started to pull back. But no, I wouldn't say that our issues are related to the fact that there's an issue with efficacy. It's more around our own issues in-house.

    較大的維生素類別已經回落。但請記住,它正在從新冠疫情中回落。你在短短幾年內就獲得了幾年的成長。因此,我認為由於新冠疫情,家庭滲透率有所提高,但這種情況已經趨於穩定並開始回落。但不,我不會說我們的問題與功效問題有關。這更多是圍繞著我們自己的內在問題。

  • Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

    Richard Dierker - CFO, Executive VP & Head of Business Operations

  • Yes. The other area that folks are moving away from gummies at times are from a sugar perspective. They want to go towards sugar free. So we're rapidly going after the sugar-free part of the portfolio. We're rapidly going after improving our taste profile. So that gap widens again versus competition.

    是的。人們有時遠離軟糖的另一個領域是從糖的角度來看。他們想要走向無糖。因此,我們正在迅速追求產品組合中的無糖部分。我們正在迅速改善我們的口味。因此,與競爭相比,差距再次擴大。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Yes. So one of our disadvantages is we don't have as what brought a portfolio of sugar-free as some of our competitors. And again, that's one of the areas when I talk about renovating the portfolio. That's one of the areas we're focused on. All right, operator, I think we are at the end of the line.

    是的。因此,我們的缺點之一是我們沒有像我們的一些競爭對手那樣帶來無糖產品組合。再說一遍,這是我談論更新產品組合的領域之一。這是我們關注的領域之一。好吧,接線員,我想我們已經到了最後了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Correct. No further questions from our audience today.

    正確的。今天我們的觀眾沒有進一步的問題。

  • Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

    Matthew Farrell - President, CEO & Chairman

  • Okay. Thanks everybody for joining us. We had a kind of a great first half. We're looking forward to a strong second half, and we'll talk to you all at the end of the third quarter.

    好的。感謝大家加入我們。我們上半場表現出色。我們期待下半場的強勁表現,我們將在第三季末與大家交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude our conference call. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    女士們先生們,我們的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。