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Operator
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the CECO Environmental third quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
您好,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 CECO Environmental 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作人員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Marcio Pinto, Vice President of Financial Planning and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
現在,我謹將會議交給今天的第一位發言人,財務規劃和投資者關係副總裁馬西奧·平托先生。請繼續。
Marcio Pinto - Vice President of Financial Planning and Investor Relations
Marcio Pinto - Vice President of Financial Planning and Investor Relations
Thank you, Tanya, and thank you for joining us on the CECO Environmental third quarter 2025 earnings call. On the call with me today is Todd Gleason, Chief Executive Officer; and Peter Johansson, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to note that we have provided a slide presentation, which is on our website at cecoenviro.com. The presentation materials can be accessed through the Investor Relations section of the website. I'd also like to caution investors regarding forward-looking statements.
謝謝 Tanya,也謝謝您參加 CECO Environmental 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。今天和我一起通話的是執行長托德·格里森和財務長彼得·約翰遜。在開始之前,我想說明一下,我們已準備了一份幻燈片演示文稿,可在我們的網站 cecoenviro.com 上找到。您可以透過網站的「投資者關係」部分存取該簡報。我還想提醒投資人注意前瞻性陳述。
Any statements made in today's presentation that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on certain estimates and expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual future results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. We encourage you to read the risks described in our SEC filings, including on the Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024. Except to the extent required by applicable securities laws, we undertake no obligation to update or publicly revise any of the forward-looking statements that we make here today, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
今天演講中任何不以歷史事實為基礎的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。此類聲明是基於某些估計和預期,並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。實際未來結果可能與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們建議您閱讀我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的風險,包括截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格。除適用證券法律要求的情況外,我們不承擔任何義務更新或公開修訂我們今天在此作出的任何前瞻性陳述,無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。
Today's presentation will also include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. We've provided comparable GAAP and non-GAAP numbers in today's press release and provide non-GAAP reconciliations in the supplemental tables in the back of the slide deck. All right.
今天的演講也將提及一些非GAAP財務指標。我們在今天的新聞稿中提供了可比較的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 數據,並在幻燈片後面的補充表格中提供了非 GAAP 調整表。好的。
With that, I'll turn the call over to CECO's CEO, Todd Gleason. Todd?
接下來,我將把電話交給 CECO 的執行長 Todd Gleason。托德?
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Marcio, and good day, everyone. Thanks for your time and for your continued interest in CECO. I'm very pleased to discuss another strong quarter as well as our reaffirmed outlook for 2025, and our initial view of full year 2026.
謝謝你,馬西奧,祝大家今天愉快。感謝您抽出時間,也感謝您一直以來對CECO的關注。我很高興與大家討論又一個強勁的季度業績,以及我們重申的 2025 年展望和我們對 2026 年全年的初步看法。
With that said, please turn to slide number 2. This executive summary slide captures the main points we hope you take away from today's earnings call and our release this morning. We will provide much more detail in later slides, so I will be brief. We delivered another high-performance quarter with outstanding top line and bottom-line growth. We exit Q3 with a new record backlog even after generating our highest ever quarterly revenue. In the quarter, we expanded EBITDA margin nicely while we continue to invest in long-term growth resources and operating capabilities.
接下來,請翻到第二張投影片。這份摘要投影片概括了我們希望您從今天的財報電話會議和今天早上發布的新聞稿中了解到的主要內容。我們將在後面的幻燈片中提供更多細節,所以我先簡單說明一下。我們又迎來了一個業績斐然的季度,營收和利潤都實現了顯著成長。儘管我們實現了有史以來最高的季度營收,但第三季末的積壓訂單量卻創下了新紀錄。本季度,我們實現了 EBITDA 利潤率的良好成長,同時我們繼續投資於長期成長資源和營運能力。
Given the tremendous visibility we have in our backlog and sales pipeline, we reaffirm our full year 2025 outlook and introduce our full year 2026 outlook, which points to another year with very strong growth in both sales and adjusted EBITDA. As you will hear from this call, we remain very bullish as we are encouraged by strong market dynamics in our most impactful sectors and pleased that our proven operating model continues to deliver for our customers and for our shareholders. Now let's dive into more details.
鑑於我們在積壓訂單和銷售管道方面擁有極大的可見性,我們重申 2025 年全年展望,並推出 2026 年全年展望,這表明銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 都將在新的一年實現強勁增長。正如您將從本次電話會議中聽到的那樣,我們仍然非常樂觀,因為我們受到最具影響力的行業強勁市場動態的鼓舞,並且很高興我們久經考驗的營運模式繼續為我們的客戶和股東帶來收益。現在讓我們深入了解更多細節。
Please turn to slide number 3. Demand for CECO solutions and services continues at a record-setting pace. Our backlog grew to $720 million, a new record; year over year, our backlog is up approximately $280 million or 64%. Sequentially, our backlog increased by approximately $30 million. This new record backlog was made possible by another quarter of robust order intake of $233 million in new bookings, which is up 44% versus Q3 of 2024. We continue to book a nice mix of midsized and large-sized orders, particularly in the power generation and energy transition sectors. While we didn't book any mega jobs this quarter because of timing of those particular jobs, we are very pleased with how those power opportunities continue to develop. We remain well positioned for these larger projects, which we define as greater than $50 million and even greater than $100 million.
請翻到第3張投影片。對 CECO 解決方案和服務的需求持續以創紀錄的速度成長。我們的積壓訂單成長至 7.2 億美元,創歷史新高;與去年同期相比,我們的積壓訂單增加了約 2.8 億美元,成長 64%。與上一季相比,我們的積壓訂單增加了約 3,000 萬美元。這一新的創紀錄的積壓訂單得以實現,是因為又一個季度強勁的訂單流入,新增訂單額達 2.33 億美元,比 2024 年第三季度增長了 44%。我們繼續獲得中型和大型訂單的良好組合,尤其是在發電和能源轉型領域。雖然由於時機問題,我們本季沒有接到任何大型項目,但我們對這些電力產業機會的持續發展感到非常滿意。我們仍然處於有利地位,可以承接這些更大的項目,我們將其定義為超過 5000 萬美元甚至超過 1 億美元的項目。
When combined with orders from the first half, our year-to-date 2025 book-to-bill is nearly 1.3, with $735 million in year-to-date orders. If you expand the bookings across the past four quarters, we have now booked approximately $950 million in new orders, with each quarter comfortably above $200 million. With the investments we have made to position our businesses to capture and capitalize on robust demand in our core markets, we expand into new geographies and offer more new solutions and services. Our sales pipeline is now over $5.8 billion, which adds to our confidence for sustainable growth. Quarterly revenues came very close to eclipsing $200 million for the first time and produced an all-time record of $198 million in the quarter; this was up 46% year over year.
加上上半年的訂單,我們 2025 年迄今的訂單出貨比接近 1.3,年初至今的訂單額為 7.35 億美元。如果將過去四個季度的訂單量擴大,我們目前已獲得約 9.5 億美元的新訂單,每個季度都輕鬆超過 2 億美元。透過投資使我們的業務能夠抓住並利用我們核心市場的強勁需求,我們將業務拓展到新的地區,並提供更多新的解決方案和服務。我們目前的銷售管道規模超過 58 億美元,這增強了我們對永續成長的信心。季度營收非常接近首次突破 2 億美元大關,並創下該季度 1.98 億美元的歷史新高;年增 46%。
Through three quarters of 2025, we have already generated more sales than all of last year, which had been a previous record. When we entered 2025, we forecasted strong growth. And I would submit that our year-to-date bookings and revenues are meeting or exceeding the bullish outlook we originally provided. Adjusted EBITDA was up 62% in the quarter as our sales growth and improving G&A cost profile continues to allow nice EBITDA margin expansion. And Q4 free cash flow of approximately $19 million was in line with the nice cash flow performance we expected and a strong rebound from our first half of 2025.
截至 2025 年前三個季度,我們的銷售額已經超過了去年全年的銷售額,而去年全年的銷售額已經創下了歷史新高。進入2025年時,我們預測將實現強勁成長。我認為,我們今年迄今為止的預訂量和收入已經達到或超過了我們最初給出的樂觀預期。本季調整後 EBITDA 成長 62%,銷售成長和 G&A 成本狀況的改善持續推動 EBITDA 利潤率的良好擴張。第四季自由現金流約為 1,900 萬美元,符合我們預期的良好現金流表現,並且較 2025 年上半年實現了強勁反彈。
We expect to continue to improve our working capital position as we navigate the balance of the year. A final metric on this summary slide shows adjusted EPS was $0.26, up approximately 86% year over year. So overall, record results and solid performance, and we enter Q4 with an incredible backlog and sustainable momentum in all of our growth programs.
我們預計在今年剩餘的時間裡,我們的營運資金狀況將繼續改善。這份總結投影片上的最後一個指標顯示,調整後的每股盈餘為 0.26 美元,較去年同期成長約 86%。總的來說,我們取得了創紀錄的業績和穩健的表現,進入第四季度時,我們擁有令人難以置信的訂單儲備,並且所有增長計劃都保持著可持續的勢頭。
Now please turn to slide number 4. As today's press release highlighted, we are reaffirming our full year 2025 annual outlook across the board. This represents full year revenue of between $725 million to $775 million, which is up approximately 35% at the midpoint year over year. For adjusted EBITDA, we are maintaining $90 million to $100 million, which is up approximately 50% at the midpoint and free cash flow at around 60% of adjusted EBITDA for the year is also reaffirmed. You can see the comments on the right side of the slide. One of the items we highlight is our expectation that Q4 bookings will be above $250 million. And depending on the timing of just a few orders, we might actually deliver our first $300 million-plus quarter.
現在請翻到第4張投影片。正如今天的新聞稿所強調的,我們重申我們對 2025 年全年業績的全面展望。這意味著全年營收在 7.25 億美元至 7.75 億美元之間,以年中位數計算,年增約 35%。對於調整後的 EBITDA,我們維持 9,000 萬美元至 1 億美元的預期,其中值比預期高出約 50%;同時,我們也確認全年自由現金流約為調整後 EBITDA 的 60%。您可以在投影片的右側看到評論。我們重點強調的一點是,我們預計第四季度預訂量將超過 2.5 億美元。如果少數幾筆訂單能夠準時完成,我們或許真的能實現第一個超過 3 億美元的季度業績。
Now before I hand it over to Peter, let's move to slide number 5 for a quick overview on CECO's prime position to benefit from current market dynamics and also navigate potential challenges. For the remainder of '25 and our initial 2026 outlook, we have a strong market backdrop in power, electrical equipment, industrial reshoring, industrial water and natural gas infrastructure sectors. Each of the past four quarters, we have booked orders in the critical infrastructure projects to support domestic power generation and energy delivery investments. And our pipeline would indicate we have the opportunity to maintain that pace throughout 2026. We see these projects continue to grow in both size and volume as we not only head through that year, but into 2027.
在將發言權交給 Peter 之前,讓我們翻到第 5 張投影片,快速了解 CECO 如何利用當前的市場動態獲益,並應對潛在的挑戰。展望 2025 年剩餘時間以及我們初步的 2026 年,電力、電氣設備、工業回流、工業用水和天然氣基礎設施領域都擁有強勁的市場背景。在過去的四個季度中,我們都獲得了關鍵基礎設施項目的訂單,以支持國內發電和能源輸送投資。我們的專案儲備表明,我們有機會在 2026 年保持這一速度。我們看到,這些項目不僅在今年,而且在 2027 年,規模和數量都將繼續增長。
We remain bullish on the industrial water and wastewater treatment sector and in particular, the international water infrastructure projects, where we now have our most active and largest pipeline of opportunities associated with water reuse and recycling applications. We expect substantial orders to be placed over the next four to six quarters with a sales pipeline that extends also well into 2027. Industrial reshoring in the global semiconductor and electronic component sectors also remain robust, and CECO's breadth of capabilities in industrial air and energy applications ensure that we are very well positioned to continue to win in these areas.
我們依然看好工業用水和廢水處理行業,尤其是國際水基礎設施項目,目前我們在水資源再利用和循環利用應用方面擁有最活躍、規模最大的項目儲備。我們預計未來四到六個季度將有大量訂單,銷售管道也將延伸到 2027 年。全球半導體和電子元件產業的工業回流趨勢仍然強勁,CECO 在工業空氣和能源應用領域的廣泛能力確保我們能夠繼續在這些領域取得成功。
We remain extremely focused on optimizing our project pricing and margin levels based on constant communication with our extended supply chain, including our fabricators, component suppliers and raw material suppliers. We have seen moderate inflation in select commodities and components that we include in our costing models and work to mitigate our designs and sourcing plans.
我們始終高度重視透過與包括製造商、零件供應商和原材料供應商在內的整個供應鏈的持續溝通,來優化專案定價和利潤水準。我們發現,在我們成本模型中包含的某些商品和零件的價格出現了適度上漲,我們將努力調整我們的設計和採購計劃以減輕這種影響。
Certainly, last but not least, M&A. We have not announced the transaction since we closed the sale of our global pump business in late Q1 as well as the acquisition of Profire Energy in early January of this year. But that doesn't mean we haven't been actively building our M&A pipeline and advancing certain deal-related discussions. We remain focused on the sustainability of CECO's portfolio, building a world-class industrial company with leadership positions in several and meaningful industrial niches. We expect to have more to discuss in the coming quarters.
當然,最後但同樣重要的是,併購。自從我們在第一季末完成全球泵浦業務出售以及今年 1 月初完成對 Profire Energy 的收購以來,我們一直沒有宣布這筆交易。但這並不代表我們沒有積極拓展併購專案管道,也沒有推動某些與交易相關的討論。我們將繼續專注於 CECO 投資組合的永續發展,打造一家在多個重要工業區隔領域佔據領先地位的世界級工業公司。我們預計未來幾季會有更多內容需要討論。
As far as challenges or uncertainties, at CECO, we believe that proper planning for scenarios is one of the hallmarks of a high-performance company. We remain laser-focused on the things we can control, and we prepare for additional actions if certain headlines turn into headwinds. As such, we continue to monitor tariffs and the impact on inflation. We are also monitoring the US Government shutdown and what impact that might have on various operational items.
至於挑戰或不確定性,CECO 認為,對各種情況進行適當的規劃是高績效公司的標誌之一。我們將繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情,並做好準備,以防某些新聞標題演變成不利因素,採取進一步行動。因此,我們將繼續關注關稅及其對通貨膨脹的影響。我們也密切關注美國政府停擺及其可能對各項營運事項造成的影響。
So far, nothing that we can point to as far as moving the needle up or down as it pertains to CECO. We will maintain our focus on these potential factors and act accordingly. Best to be proactive when possible, and that's our plan.
到目前為止,就 CECO 而言,我們還沒有發現任何可以推動或推動指標上升或下降的跡象。我們將繼續關注這些潛在因素,並採取相應行動。最好盡可能採取積極主動的態度,這也是我們的計畫。
I will now hand it over to Peter, who will go into more detail on our financial results. Peter?
現在我將把發言權交給彼得,他將更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。彼得?
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Thank you, Todd. Good day, everyone. Thank you for joining Todd and myself for CECO's third quarter 2025 earnings call. I would like you to turn to slide number 7 for more details on our recent financial results in the quarter. CECO finished the third quarter with a record backlog of $720 million, up 64% versus prior year and 5% on a sequential basis.
謝謝你,托德。大家好。感謝各位參加我和 Todd 主持的 CECO 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。請翻到第 7 張投影片,了解我們本季的財務表現詳情。CECO 第三季積壓訂單金額達到創紀錄的 7.2 億美元,較上年同期成長 64%,較上季成長 5%。
This result delivers the 11 of the last 12 quarters with an increase in backlog. The increase was driven by good order rates across a wide range of end markets. Of the total, approximately $60 million is related to the recent acquisitions, with the balance of the increase being generated from organic order growth. Third quarter orders were $233 million, an increase of 44% over the prior year period, representing a book-to-bill of approximately 1.2 times; and as Todd mentioned earlier, the fourth consecutive quarter with orders greater than $200 million for a trailing 12-month level of $954 million, 65% greater than the prior 12-month period. This $954 million level represented a book-to-bill of 1.33 times revenue, a record for any 12-month period in CECO company history by a large margin and a four quarter average of approximately $238 million.
這一結果意味著過去 12 個季度中有 11 個季度積壓訂單量增加。此次成長主要得益於各終端市場訂單量的良好成長。其中,約 6,000 萬美元與近期收購有關,其餘成長來自自然訂單成長。第三季訂單金額為 2.33 億美元,比上年同期成長 44%,訂單出貨比約為 1.2 倍;正如 Todd 之前提到的,這是連續第四個季度訂單額超過 2 億美元,過去 12 個月的訂單額達到 9.54 億美元,比前 12 個月增長 65%。這一 9.54 億美元的水平相當於收入的 1.33 倍訂單出貨比,遠超 CECO 公司歷史上任何 12 個月期間的記錄,而四個季度的平均水平約為 2.38 億美元。
The results were largely due to strong demand in power, natural gas infrastructure, semiconductor, and industrial water applications. I would like to point out that CECO is just shy of reaching $1 billion in orders on a 12-month basis for the first time in company history, a level that we expect to achieve in the coming 12 months. Revenue in the quarter of $198 million was the highest for any quarter in company history and an increase of 46% or $62 million over prior year. Approximately 30% of the year over year increase was generated by the company's most recent three acquisitions and the balance was from organic growth. Sequential revenue was up 7%, with a big assist by revenues recognized on large power generation projects booked in prior quarters, as well as strong backlog conversion from industrial air, industrial water projects.
這項結果主要歸功於電力、天然氣基礎設施、半導體和工業用水應用領域的強勁需求。我想指出,CECO 的 12 個月訂單金額即將達到 10 億美元,這將是公司歷史上首次實現這一目標,我們預計在未來 12 個月內將達到這一水平。該季度營收達 1.98 億美元,創公司歷史上季度最高紀錄,比去年同期成長 46%,即 6,200 萬美元。約 30% 的年成長率來自該公司最近的三次收購,其餘部分來自內生成長。環比收入成長 7%,這主要得益於前幾季確認的大型發電項目收入,以及工業空氣、工業用水項目的強勁積壓訂單轉換。
Adjusted EBITDA of $23.2 million was an increase of 62% versus prior year, with margins improving approximately 120 basis points over the year ago quarter. On a trailing 12-month basis, adjusted EBITDA grew 26% to approximately $80 million, with margins down slightly, driven by our Q1 2025 results, which were lower than anticipated. On a sequential basis, adjusted EBITDA was flat on a dollar basis with 80 basis points of margin contraction due to lower gross profit margins in the quarter, partially offset by lower G&A spending. Gross profit margins of approximately 33% in the quarter was down 70 basis points year over year, mainly due to an adverse project mix as well as driven by a medium-sized project closeout with dilutive gross margins. Sequentially, gross profit margins are slightly down, driven by mix and the typical summer seasonal headwind dynamics.
調整後的 EBITDA 為 2,320 萬美元,比上年同期成長 62%,利潤率比上年同期提高了約 120 個基點。以過去 12 個月計算,調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 26%,達到約 8,000 萬美元,利潤率略有下降,這是由於我們 2025 年第一季的業績低於預期。按季度計算,調整後的 EBITDA 以美元計價持平,但由於本季毛利率下降,利潤率下降了 80 個基點,部分被 G&A 支出減少所抵消。本季毛利率約 33%,較去年同期下降 70 個基點,主要原因是專案組合不利,以及一個中型專案結束導致毛利率稀釋。受產品組合和典型的夏季季節性不利因素影響,毛利率較上季略有下降。
Sales, engineering and G&A expense continued its favorable downward trend with spending in the quarter down 4% sequentially, benefiting from cost-saving initiatives initiated in the first quarter and strong expense management. Adjusted EPS in the quarter was up $0.12 or 86% on higher volumes, operational excellence efforts and G&A expense management, partially offset by higher interest expense.
銷售、工程和一般管理費用持續保持良好的下降趨勢,本季支出較上季下降 4%,這得益於第一季度啟動的成本節約措施和強有力的費用管理。本季調整後每股收益成長 0.12 美元,增幅達 86%,主要得益於銷售成長、卓越營運以及一般及行政費用控制,但部分被更高的利息支出所抵銷。
Now please turn to page 8 to review our backlog position in more detail. With our strong orders performance in the third quarter, our backlog is continuing its steady upwards climb as we convert on the growing sales opportunity pipeline. At $720 million, CECO's backlog has more than tripled since the end of 2021. We expect the majority of this backlog to convert to revenue within the next 24 months, with a large portion scheduled to convert over the next 18 months. Our 2025 year-to-date book-to-bill is approximately 1.3 times, further underpinning future revenue.
現在請翻到第 8 頁,詳細檢視我們的積壓工作。由於第三季訂單表現強勁,隨著銷售機會管道的不斷成長,我們的積壓訂單量持續穩定上升。CECO 的積壓訂單金額為 7.2 億美元,自 2021 年底以來成長了兩倍多。我們預計大部分積壓訂單將在未來 24 個月內轉化為收入,其中很大一部分計劃在未來 18 個月內轉換。我們 2025 年迄今的訂單出貨比約為 1.3 倍,進一步鞏固了未來的收入。
Now please turn to page 9, for a look at gross profit and gross margin performance. This slide, like in previous earnings decks, presents CECO's gross profit and gross margin performance by quarter since the fourth quarter of 2022. We are presenting it on a trailing 12-month basis to normalize for quarter to quarter fluctuations and to provide a look back to the start of CECO's operating excellence agenda deployment, which began in the fourth quarter of 2022.
現在請翻到第 9 頁,查看毛利和毛利率表現。與先前的收益簡報一樣,這張投影片展示了 CECO 自 2022 年第四季以來的季度毛利和毛利率表現。我們以過去 12 個月的數據為基礎進行展示,以消除季度間的波動,並回顧 CECO 卓越營運計畫部署的開始情況,該計畫於 2022 年第四季度啟動。
Since that point, CECO has expanded trailing 12-month gross profit margins by approximately 500 basis points with gross profit dollar growth of slightly greater than 95%. In the third quarter of 2025, our business delivered the second highest gross profit dollar performance for the company in a quarter of $64.6 million and a gross profit margin of 32.7%. The decrease of 300 -- with a decrease of 350 basis points sequentially and 70 basis points year over year. Project mix and seasonal dynamics drove the quarter on quarter decline. I would like to remind the audience that a sequential step down from second quarter to third quarter is normal for CECO.
自那時以來,CECO 過去 12 個月的毛利率提高了約 500 個基點,毛利美元成長率略高於 95%。2025 年第三季度,我們的業務實現了公司季度第二高的毛利,達到 6,460 萬美元,毛利率為 32.7%。下降 300 個基點-季減 350 個基點,較去年同期下降 70 個基點。項目組合和季節性因素導致了季度環比下降。我想提醒各位,CECO從第二季到第三季出現連續下滑是正常的。
This has occurred annually since 2020, most recently in 2024, where we experienced a 220 basis points sequential reduction before a similarly sized step-up in the fourth quarter. The seasonal dynamic is mostly due to fewer working days with summer holidays in Europe and the United States, resulting in a general slowdown in business operations. In addition, we chose to accelerate the closeout of an industrial air project with dilutive margins into the third quarter to put that behind us for the balance of the year. Similar to past years, we fully expect gross profit margins to bounce back into the fourth quarter and continue the upward momentum as we maintain long-term profit margins at the gross margin level at greater than 35%. On a trailing 12-month basis, our gross profit margin was 35% at the end of the third quarter.
自 2020 年以來,這種情況每年都會發生,最近一次是在 2024 年,當時我們經歷了 220 個基點的環比下降,然後在第四季度出現了類似幅度的增長。季節性變化主要是由於歐洲和美國夏季假期導致工作日減少,從而造成商業運營普遍放緩。此外,我們選擇將利潤率較低的工業空氣項目的收尾工作提前到第三季度完成,以便在今年剩餘的時間裡徹底擺脫該項目的影響。與往年類似,我們完全預期毛利率將在第四季度反彈,並繼續保持上升勢頭,同時我們將長期利潤率維持在毛利率水準 35% 以上。過去 12 個月,截至第三季末,我們的毛利率為 35%。
This improvement over the past two plus years is attributable to the progress our teams have made capturing annualized sourcing savings in the range of $10 million, improving project execution, and the impact of our commercial and portfolio transformation initiatives to improve the business mix while making acquisitions with accretive gross profit margins. For the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, we will continue to implement and expand on our operating excellence agenda, focusing on project execution and sourcing and increasing our focus on G&A expense optimization and process simplification to further benefit adjusted EBITDA delivery. These efforts will be bolstered by the addition of 80/20 to our operating model, a process which we have introduced late in the third quarter and will continue to drive deeper into the organization in coming periods.
過去兩年多來取得的進步歸功於我們的團隊在以下方面取得的進展:每年採購節省約 1000 萬美元;改進項目執行;以及我們的商業和投資組合轉型計劃的影響,這些計劃旨在改善業務組合,同時進行毛利率增長的收購。在 2025 年剩餘時間和 2026 年,我們將繼續實施和擴大我們的卓越營運計劃,重點關注專案執行和採購,並更加重視一般及行政費用優化和流程簡化,以進一步提高調整後 EBITDA 的實現。我們將在營運模式中加入 80/20 原則,以此加強這些努力。我們在第三季末引入了這項原則,並將在未來一段時間內繼續將其深入組織內部。
Now please move to slide 10, where I'll review cash flow and indebtedness. Starting on the left side of the page with free cash flow generation. The schedule shows a walk from GAAP net income to free cash flow on a year-to-date basis. Cash flow in the quarter was a net positive of $19 million, a strong improvement of $22 million sequentially versus the second quarter due to strong cash generation from operations due to higher volumes, improved working capital management, and adjustments related to taxes paid on the gain on sale of the GPS business in the first quarter of this year. On a year-to-date basis, cumulative free cash flow is approximately $1 million.
現在請翻到第 10 張投影片,我將在那裡回顧現金流和債務狀況。從頁面左側的自由現金流產生部分開始。表格顯示了從 GAAP 淨收入到年初至今自由現金流的詳細計算過程。本季現金流淨額為 1,900 萬美元,較第二季度環比大幅增長 2,200 萬美元,這主要得益於銷量增長帶來的強勁經營現金流、營運資本管理改善以及對今年第一季出售 GPS 業務收益所繳納稅款的調整。今年迄今為止,累計自由現金流約為 100 萬美元。
Year-to-date capital expenditures of approximately $8.7 million are largely driven by investments in our ongoing ERP system migration program, operating improvements in select production facilities and office updates and consolidations in Dubai, Shanghai, and Singapore as we integrated our legacy and acquired teams in those respective regions. On the right side of the slide is a summary of CECO's gross indebtedness with the primary drivers of change shown in the schedule provided.
今年迄今的資本支出約為 870 萬美元,主要得益於我們正在進行的 ERP 系統遷移計劃、部分生產設施的營運改善以及在杜拜、上海和新加坡的辦公室更新和整合,因為我們在這些地區整合了我們原有的和收購的團隊。投影片右側概述了 CECO 的總債務情況,並在提供的表格中顯示了主要的變化驅動因素。
We ended the third quarter with gross debt of approximately $217 million, flat to year-end 2024 and a reduction of approximately $20 million from the end of the second quarter. Cash generated from operations and working capital initiatives was used to reduce our gross debt balance in the quarter to a level that now predates the Profire acquisition concluded in early January 2025. The reduction in gross debt, combined with the growth of our TTM EBITDA will result in a 25 basis points step down in the fourth quarter for the interest rate we will pay on our outstanding revolver balance, providing CECO with approximately $550,000 of annual savings in interest payments on the current balance.
第三季末,我們的總債務約為 2.17 億美元,與 2024 年底持平,比第二季末減少了約 2,000 萬美元。本季度,我們利用營運和營運資金措施產生的現金,將總債務餘額減少到 2025 年 1 月初完成的 Profire 收購之前的水平。總債務的減少,加上我們 TTM EBITDA 的增長,將導致我們在第四季度支付的未償循環貸款餘額的利率下降 25 個基點,這將使 CECO 每年在當前餘額的利息支出上節省約 550,000 美元。
This benefit is exclusive of the benefit we will experience from further Fed rate reductions, of which two are expected by the end of 2025. Net debt at quarter end was approximately $186 million, a decrease of $13 million from the end of the second quarter and a slight decrease -- increase, excuse me, from the year-end net debt balance of $180 million. At $186 million, our net debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio has been further improved to approximately 2.3 times our third quarter TTM Bank EBITDA of $80.4 million. At the end of the quarter, our investment capacity is $109 million, an increase of $40 million from the year-end 2024 level and providing sufficient liquidity for our near-term needs.
這項收益不包括我們將從聯準會進一步降息中獲得的收益,預計到 2025 年底聯準會將降息兩次。季度末淨債務約為 1.86 億美元,比第二季末減少了 1,300 萬美元,比年末淨債務餘額 1.8 億美元略有減少——抱歉,應該說是略有增加。我們的淨負債與 EBITDA 的槓桿比率為 1.86 億美元,進一步改善至第三季 TTM 銀行 EBITDA 為 8,040 萬美元的約 2.3 倍。截至本季末,我們的投資能力為 1.09 億美元,比 2024 年底的水準增加了 4,000 萬美元,為我們近期的需求提供了充足的流動性。
While we remain active in cultivating various M&A opportunities and expanding our deal pipeline, our short-term focus for capital deployment remains to further strengthen our balance sheet, accelerate our ERP migration efforts, and fund our double-digit organic growth. However, with our current capacity, we are well positioned to close on one of the tuck-in transactions working its way through our M&A pipeline. That concludes my remarks on CECO's third quarter 2025 financial performance, a solid result to follow up on an equally strong second quarter performance.
儘管我們仍在積極尋求各種併購機會並擴大交易管道,但我們短期內的資本部署重點仍然是進一步加強資產負債表、加快 ERP 系統遷移工作,並為我們兩位數的內生成長提供資金。然而,憑藉我們目前的實力,我們完全有能力完成正在我們併購專案中推進的其中一筆收購交易。以上就是我對 CECO 2025 年第三季財務表現的評論,這是一個穩健的結果,延續了第二季同樣強勁的業績。
And now back to Todd for his final remarks and a wrap-up.
現在請托德作最後總結發言。
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Peter. Let's transition to looking ahead, including our initial 2026 outlook. On slide 12, we summarize positive market and operational items as well as certain challenges that are incorporated in our 2026 outlook. We continue to believe energy transition investments such as more power generation, more natural gas infrastructure and LNG investments, and a business-first friendly policy agenda, which allows investments to flow quickly to create economic benefit. These are all meaningful positives to energy transition, positives to our customers, and positives to CECO.
謝謝你,彼得。讓我們展望未來,包括我們對 2026 年的初步展望。在第 12 張投影片中,我們總結了積極的市場和營運因素,以及我們在 2026 年展望中考慮的一些挑戰。我們仍然相信能源轉型投資,例如增加發電、增加天然氣基礎設施和液化天然氣投資,以及以商業為先的友好政策議程,可以讓投資快速流動,從而創造經濟效益。這些對能源轉型、對我們的客戶以及對 CECO 來說都是意義重大的正面因素。
We also see other positive market dynamics for industrial air and industrial water, each with a set of bullet point items listed in their sections. Each of those has a very large pipeline of opportunities as we navigate -- excuse me, Q4 2025 and throughout our 2026 sales outlook. I can't stress enough how well positioned CECO is for general industrial investment and expansion globally. Now that we have firmly established a global water platform, we are also very well positioned for large wastewater and produced water projects. It remains a very exciting market dynamic, and we continue to invest to advance our leadership and support our global operations.
我們也看到工業空氣和工業用水市場的其他積極動態,每個市場在其章節中都列出了一系列要點。在我們展望 2025 年第四季以及整個 2026 年銷售前景的過程中,每一項都蘊藏著巨大的機會。我必須強調,CECO 在全球一般工業投資和擴張方面擁有非常優越的地位。現在我們已經穩固地建立了一個全球水務平台,我們也為大型廢水和採出水計畫做好了非常充分的準備。市場依然充滿活力,我們將繼續投資以鞏固我們的領先地位並支持我們的全球業務。
As for potential challenges or uncertainties, several of these same themes -- several of these are the same themes from earlier in our earnings deck. We continue to monitor tariffs and inflation, regulation changes and resource availability. These aren't new themes and these aren't new potential challenges. So we believe we have a lot of programs and processes in place to navigate these various items.
至於潛在的挑戰或不確定性,其中一些主題與我們先前在收益報告中提到的主題相同。我們將持續關注關稅和通貨膨脹、法規變更以及資源可用性。這些並非新主題,這些也不是新的潛在挑戰。因此,我們相信我們已經制定了許多程序和流程來應對這些不同的事項。
Now please move to slide number 13, and let me provide our initial full year 2026 outlook. I'm very pleased to share this outlook, as it demonstrates the ongoing strength of our operating model and our leadership position in growing markets. Starting with orders, we are targeting orders to exceed $1 billion and the slide highlights a greater than 1.1 book-to-bill. We have the sales pipeline to overdrive this book-to-bill level, and we are very excited to work with our customers to eclipse $1 billion in bookings. As you know, this bookings level is a preview of revenue levels in outer periods, and we certainly are ready to be a $1 billion revenue company on our way to much more. Full year 2026 revenue outlook is projected to be between $850 million and $950 million, which is up between 15% to 25% year over year when compared to 2025's midpoint.
現在請翻到第 13 張投影片,讓我來介紹一下我們對 2026 年全年的初步展望。我非常高興與大家分享這項展望,因為它展現了我們營運模式的持續優勢以及我們在不斷成長的市場中的領導地位。從訂單量來看,我們的目標是訂單金額超過 10 億美元,投影片顯示訂單出貨比超過 1.1。我們有足夠的銷售管道來推動訂單到出貨的轉換率,我們非常高興能與客戶合作,實現超過 10 億美元的訂單金額。如您所知,目前的預訂量預示著未來一段時間的收入水平,我們當然已經準備好成為一家年收入 10 億美元的公司,並且正在朝著更高的目標邁進。預計 2026 年全年營收將在 8.5 億美元至 9.5 億美元之間,與 2025 年的中點相比,年增 15% 至 25%。
Our estimated 2025 year-end backlog of approximately $750 million, or greater, gives us significant visibility as we start 2026. And depending on how bookings occur in both Q4 '25 and Q1 of '26, we'll know a lot more about this revenue range for next year. Moving to adjusted EBITDA. Our outlook is between $110 million and $130 million, up between 20% and 40% year over year when compared to full year '25. We expect with the revenue execution of major power jobs that gross profit will be slightly down year over year, but that will be more than offset by savings in our SG&A.
我們預計 2025 年底的積壓訂單將達到約 7.5 億美元或更多,這使我們在 2026 年初擁有了相當大的可見度。根據 2025 年第四季和 2026 年第一季的預訂情況,我們將對明年的收入範圍有更清晰的了解。改為調整後 EBITDA。我們預計營收將在 1.1 億美元至 1.3 億美元之間,與 2025 年全年相比,年增 20% 至 40%。我們預計,隨著主要電力項目的收入實現,毛利將同比略有下降,但這將被銷售、一般及行政費用的節省所抵消。
As a result, we expect adjusted EBITDA margins to be up between 110 to 150 basis points year over year. Adjusted free cash flow is expected to convert between 50% to 60% of adjusted EBITDA based on achieving major project billing milestones and continued working capital management improvements. So as we sit here in October and provide outlook for 2026, we have a lot of visibility and a lot of momentum. This gives us the confidence that providing initial guidance with strong double-digit top and bottom-line growth, which comes immediately after what will be a banner year in 2025 is something we are very comfortable doing.
因此,我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將比去年同期成長 110 至 150 個基點。預計調整後的自由現金流將佔調整後 EBITDA 的 50% 至 60%,前提是主要項目結算里程碑的實現以及營運資本管理的持續改善。因此,當我們在十月展望 2026 年時,我們擁有很高的可見度和強大的發展勢頭。這讓我們有信心,在 2025 年這個輝煌的年份之後,緊接著給出兩位數強勁的營收和利潤增長的初步指引,我們對此感到非常有信心。
Please turn to slide number 14. This might be my favorite slide. There's a lot to like here. Certainly, a lot of graphics going up and to the right. A lot of great double-digit growth and steady margin expansion. What I like most about the slide is how we have demonstrated and continue to maintain high-performance, sustainable results.
請翻到第14頁投影片。這可能是我最喜歡的一張投影片。這裡有很多值得喜歡的地方。當然,有很多圖形向上向右延伸。許多業務實現了兩位數的強勁成長,利潤率也穩定提升。我最喜歡這張投影片的地方在於,它展示了我們如何展現並持續保持高水準、可持續的成果。
The numbers jump out at you. Our four year backlog CAGR of 34% growth; our five year order and five year revenue CAGR each with 23% growth; our five year adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 35% growth -- it's just steady, solid performance, and it's not an accident. We continue to invest in people. We continue to invest in growth programs and global expansion. We continue to invest in operating excellence to drive safety, quality, on-time delivery and cash and working capital management.
這些數字格外引人注目。我們四年積壓訂單複合年增長率達 34%;五年訂單和五年收入複合年增長率均為 23%;五年調整後 EBITDA 複合年增長率達 35%——這都是穩健的業績,絕非偶然。我們持續投資人才。我們將繼續投資於成長計劃和全球擴張。我們將繼續投資於卓越運營,以提升安全、品質、準時交付以及現金和營運資金管理水準。
We continue to deploy capital smartly to generate the best economic returns for our shareholders. In fact, perhaps the best number that's not even on this slide is our shareholder returns that we've generated over the last four to five years. We look forward to delivering more for our customers and shareholders as we deliver great results for many years to come.
我們將繼續合理運用資本,為股東創造最佳經濟回報。事實上,或許這張投影片上沒有列出的最佳數字是我們過去四到五年為股東創造的回報。我們期待在未來多年取得優異業績,從而為我們的客戶和股東創造更多價值。
Let's please move to our last slide, which is number 15. As we begin to wrap up 2025, we believe CECO remains well positioned to benefit from our diverse end market exposure and key mega themes that remain very strong. Our $5.8 billion and above pipeline -- sales pipeline provides tremendous visibility into many exciting opportunities. I'm very pleased with our Q3 and year-to-date 2025 performance. Year over year, backlog up 64%, orders up 44% and revenue up 46% in the quarter. This level of growth just continues to be sustained, and our 124-basis point margin expansion is something we're pleased with as well. I'd like to thank team CECO for relentlessly delivering for our customers. And we continue to be bullish with respect to our full year outlook and of course, the 2026 outlook that we just provided, another strong year of double-digit top line and bottom-line forecast.
請看最後一頁投影片,也就是第 15 頁。2025 年即將結束,我們相信 CECO 仍將憑藉其多元化的終端市場佈局和仍然強勁的關鍵宏觀主題,獲得良好的發展前景。我們擁有價值 58 億美元及以上的銷售管道——銷售管道為我們提供了許多令人興奮的機遇,讓我們能夠清楚地了解市場動態。我對我們2025年第三季和年初至今的業績非常滿意。與去年同期相比,本季積壓訂單成長 64%,訂單量成長 44%,營收成長 46%。這種成長動能得以持續,我們對124個基點的利潤率擴張也感到滿意。我要感謝CECO團隊為我們的客戶不懈地努力。我們對全年前景依然保持樂觀,當然,也對我們剛剛提供的 2026 年前景持樂觀態度,預計 2026 年營收和利潤將再次實現兩位數增長。
With that, we'll pause and open up the line for questions. Operator?
接下來,我們將暫停片刻,並開放提問環節。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
Rob Brown, Lake Street Capital Markets.
羅布布朗,湖街資本市場。
Robert Brown - Analyst
Robert Brown - Analyst
Congratulations on all the progress. Just first on the kind of the project pipeline. I think you talked about some large kind of projects in the works in terms of the industrial water side, in particular, and I guess, the power gen side. Could you give us a sense of where those are at and sort of what those projects entail?
祝賀你們取得的所有進展。首先,我們需要了解專案流程的類型。我想你談到了一些正在進行中的大型項目,特別是工業用水方面,還有發電方面。您能否簡要介紹一下這些項目目前的進度以及它們的具體內容?
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I'll start and Peter can add certainly some color to this as well. We'll start with industrial water. The larger projects, and we're really well positioned, we feel globally, and we're excited about a lot of the US domestic applications and growth that we see. But the larger projects are mostly based in either the Middle East or even in various regions around Asia. They relate to produced water or water reuse applications in very large installations.
是的。我先開始,彼得肯定也能為這部分增添一些色彩。我們先從工業用水說起。更大的項目,我們在全球範圍內都佔據了非常有利的地位,我們對看到的許多美國國內應用和增長感到興奮。但規模較大的項目多位於中東,甚至分佈在亞洲各地。它們與大型裝置中的生產水或水再利用應用有關。
We believe that our growing reference sites and our relationships with large organizations and EPC firms sort of puts us in a win-win position. If they secure the projects, we're their technology of choice. So we're working through those -- the timing of those items. We're excited. We've had a constant dialogue with them throughout the year. And so really, right now, at this point, it's really all about timing in terms of that. And those larger jobs would be predominantly based in the Middle East.
我們相信,我們不斷成長的客戶案例以及與大型機構和EPC公司建立的關係,使我們處於雙贏的地位。如果他們能拿下這些項目,我們的技術就是他們的首選。所以我們正在處理這些問題——這些問題的時機安排。我們很興奮。我們全年都與他們保持溝通。所以,就目前而言,關鍵在於時機。而這些規模較大的工作主要會設在中東地區。
Robert Brown - Analyst
Robert Brown - Analyst
Then the 2026 outlook, I think you have pretty good visibility there with the current backlog. But are there projects that can come in that can move that up? I guess, what's sort of the ability for that to move up, I guess, in terms of project activity? What would have to happen to kind of hit the high end of that number?
至於 2026 年的前景,我認為根據目前的積壓情況,你可以相當清楚地看到這一點。但是,是否有一些項目可以加快這一進程呢?我想,就專案活動而言,它向上推進的能力如何?要達到這個數字的上限,需要發生什麼情況?
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. No. I mean, look, I can -- by the way, I appreciate that we're sitting here a few days before Halloween, and we're already talking about raising guidance next year, Rob, well done. But joking aside, let's be clear, right? Like, look, we have a $5.8 billion sales pipeline. That means these are jobs that over the next 18 months, we have high confidence will move forward, and we will either win or lose our participation on those programs. That is multiple billions higher than it was just a few years ago, and we're growing, obviously, at a strong, sustainable double-digit pace.
是的。不。我的意思是,你看,我可以——順便說一句,我很感激我們能在萬聖節前幾天坐在這裡,就已經在討論明年提高指導方針了,羅布,幹得好。玩笑歸玩笑,咱們還是說清楚點吧?你看,我們有價值 58 億美元的銷售管道。這意味著在接下來的 18 個月裡,我們有很高的信心這些工作將會取得進展,而我們也會在這些專案中贏得或失去參與權。這比幾年前高出數十億,而且顯然,我們正在以強勁、可持續的兩位數速度成長。
As we look at what's in the more nearer term, Q4 of this year, first half of next year -- I might even say Q1 of 2026, certainly, there are a handful of larger projects that we see the revenue profile associated with those projects being something that we can model in '26 and in '27. So it really depends on if those projects -- those specific projects move forward and how many of those do we win in Q4 and in the first half of next year, let's go with Q1. If, let's say, instead of winning one of two, we win two of two large industrial water jobs; or instead of $175 million to $125 million power job, we win multiple which we can serve in our capacity, then that skews our view because we certainly haven't baked in every one of those jobs in our outlook.
展望更近期的時期,例如今年第四季度、明年上半年,甚至可能是 2026 年第一季度,我們可以看到一些較大的項目,這些項目的收入情況我們可以在 2026 年和 2027 年進行建模。所以這真的取決於這些項目——這些具體項目能否推進,以及我們在第四季和明年上半年(我們暫且以第一季為例)能贏得多少個這樣的計畫。假設我們不是贏得兩個大型工業用水項目中的一個,而是贏得了兩個大型工業用水項目;或者不是贏得一個價值 1.75 億美元到 1.25 億美元的電力項目,而是贏得了多個我們可以承接的項目,那麼這將扭曲我們的觀點,因為我們肯定沒有把所有這些項目都納入我們的預期之中。
So to be fair, we have the visibility in our backlog and in our expected win rate to drive performance relative to the outlook that we just provided. And it's very early, obviously, versus when most companies give a 2026 outlook. So I'd say we have a high degree of confidence that what we were modeling in based on our expectations is something we're proud of. However, yes, there are always levers that can occur throughout the next few quarters that gives us even more visibility to what looks -- what could be a higher 2026. Where we sit right now, we would say we don't think we're being conservative. We also don't think we're emptying the cupboards on 2026. We think we're in the right place, and we believe this guidance reflects that.
公平地說,我們能夠從積壓訂單和預期得標率中看出端倪,從而推動業績成長,達到我們剛才給出的預期。顯然,現在還為時過早,大多數公司都會在2026年發布展望。所以我覺得我們非常有信心,根據我們的預期所建立的模型是我們引以為傲的。不過,是的,在接下來的幾個季度裡,總是會有一些因素可能會出現,讓我們對 2026 年的前景有更清晰的了解——2026 年可能會更加美好。就我們目前的立場而言,我們認為我們並不算是保守派。我們也不認為我們會在 2026 年把櫥櫃清空。我們認為我們正處於正確的方向,我們相信這份指導也反映了這一點。
Operator
Operator
Aaron Spychalla, Craig-Hallum Capital Group.
Aaron Spychalla,Craig-Hallum Capital Group。
Aaron Spychalla - Analyst
Aaron Spychalla - Analyst
Maybe first for me, just on the pipeline in power generation. Can you maybe give us an update there? It seems like in the market, there's a focus on improving connections at the data center level and just getting to market faster. Are you seeing any acceleration in the pipeline there on the order front? And just maybe give a little more color on the activity levels there.
也許對我來說,這是第一次,就在發電管道上。您能否提供我們那方面的最新進展?市場上似乎更注重改善資料中心層面的連接,並加快產品上市速度。訂單方面,您看到那邊的流程有任何加速推進的跡象嗎?或許還可以更詳細地描述那裡的活動水準。
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I don't know that we're seeing acceleration. I think we're seeing a very robust space with a lot of headlines and a lot of activity. No doubt it's easy and important to read what some of the more larger organizations, like GE Vernova and Siemens and others are talking about, as they clearly are leaders in providing so much of the important power generation equipment, and we love partnering with them. And those conversations continue to be positive.
是的。我不認為我們正在看到加速發展。我認為我們看到的是一個非常活躍的領域,有很多新聞報導和很多活動。毫無疑問,了解像GE Vernova和西門子等一些規模較大的組織正在談論的內容既容易又重要,因為它們顯然是提供許多重要發電設備的領導者,我們很樂意與他們合作。而且這些對話一直都很正面。
Yes, there are times when things accelerate and ebb and flow, but they don't seem to be decelerating, I'll say that much. But I would say where we were a few quarters ago, I would say we feel very confident to that pace being pretty sustainable. The pipeline is well over $1 billion for us of just those projects over the next 12 months or so. And so it's a very active set of discussions. Peter?
是的,事情有時會加速,有時會放緩,但目前看來並沒有減速的跡象,這一點我可以肯定。但就幾個季度前的情況而言,我認為我們非常有信心保持目前的成長速度。未來 12 個月左右,光是這些項目就將為我們帶來超過 10 億美元的投資。因此,這是一系列非常活躍的討論。彼得?
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
It's easy to become overwhelmed by all the reporting on data centers. I think we all have to be a little, say, more balanced in our view of how much of that becomes a reality. And if you dig into the large OEM, gas turbine OEM backlog information, you'll see that they are also suggesting that the international demand is every bit as exciting as North America. And that's because there is tremendous needs for power, both for industry as well as for the transition off of coal in those regions as well. So I think we have to be careful that we -- and we are careful and that we look at our pipeline in a way that ensures that we balance the best of the opportunities with where they are occurring globally.
鋪天蓋地的資料中心報道很容易讓人感到不知所措。我認為我們都應該對這些事情最終能有多少成為現實,持有更平衡的看法。如果你深入研究大型 OEM 和燃氣渦輪機 OEM 的積壓訂單信息,你會發現他們也表明國際需求與北美需求一樣令人興奮。這是因為這些地區對電力有著巨大的需求,既包括工業發展,也包括從煤炭轉向其他能源。所以我認為我們必須謹慎——而且我們確實很謹慎——我們要以一種確保我們能夠平衡全球最佳機會與這些機會發生地點的方式來審視我們的項目儲備。
And what Todd was referring to in his remarks earlier was that there's a lot of near term in the US to serve the data center demand, but this is a multiyear cycle that's going to run for at least we view out through 2030, 2032. And so -- and this is somewhat to Rob's point as well, we could get it all today. And if we got it all today, still deliver over the next three to five years. So it's a multiyear story, and I just caution everyone on getting overly excited about these headlines because it takes years to build a plant, it takes years to deliver the equipment, it takes years to turn it on.
Todd 先前在演講中提到的是,美國近期有許多專案可以滿足資料中心的需求,但這將是一個多年週期,至少在我們看來會持續到 2030 年、2032 年。所以——這也有點符合羅布的觀點——我們今天就能全部得到。即使我們今天全部達成了目標,也需要在未來三到五年內交付成果。所以這是一個持續多年的故事,我只是想提醒大家不要對這些新聞標題過於興奮,因為建造一座工廠需要數年時間,交付設備需要數年時間,啟動工廠也需要數年時間。
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
By the way, Aaron -- and only saying this because we've talked about this with you and others and also have been asked this question and maybe coming up on this Q&A. We, CECO, and our solutions with respect to power are, call it, later in the cycle of the power builds, meaning we're providing the thermal acoustic noise abatement, emissions management. Yeah, there are some areas where we're in the gas infrastructure side with separation filtration. But our larger solutions on these power jobs come in the second to later half of a project, not the beginning. We may be in early conversation and bidding and participating in budget assessments and planning, but we don't win the jobs until later in the cycle. So as the cycle continues to mature, we're starting to hit our stride, if you want to call it that.
順便說一下,亞倫——之所以這麼說,是因為我們和你以及其他人討論過這個問題,也有人問過我們這個問題,而且這個問題可能還會在問答環節中被提及。我們 CECO 以及我們在電力方面的解決方案,可以說是在電力建設週期的後期階段,這意味著我們提供的是熱聲噪音控制和排放管理。是的,我們在天然氣基礎設施方面有一些分離過濾方面的工作。但我們針對這些電力項目提出的更宏大的解決方案,是在專案的後半段或後期提出的,而不是在專案初期提出的。我們可能在早期階段就開始洽談、投標、參與預算評估和規劃,但直到專案週期後期才能贏得專案。隨著週期不斷成熟,我們開始步入正軌,如果你願意這麼稱呼的話。
Aaron Spychalla - Analyst
Aaron Spychalla - Analyst
Then maybe just switching to margins. You talked about 100 bps to 150 bps of kind of targeted EBITDA margin expansion. Can you just maybe talk about the confidence there? It sounds like there might be some mix just from some of these larger projects on the gross margin line, but you also talked about some of the early efforts on 80/20 and other lean initiatives and SG&A reductions. Just maybe help provide some color there, please.
那或許可以改用邊距。您曾提到 EBITDA 利潤率目標要提高 100 到 150 個基點。您能談談那裡的自信心嗎?聽起來,毛利率方面可能存在一些混合因素,這部分來自一些較大的項目,但您也談到了早期在 80/20 和其他精益舉措以及銷售、一般及行政費用削減方面的一些努力。或許可以幫忙為那裡增添一些色彩。
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's really at least a three pronged steady approach for us, and we're -- and we have confidence in this approach. In no particular order, think of number one, the volume that we continue to generate is -- allows us to have a lot of visibility, not just through our backlog and margins in our backlog and in the projects. And we're talking about gross margins, which might be a little lower than the current company average of 34%, 35%, but the EBITDA margin from those jobs is higher than the company average. So we like the dynamics, number one, of what the volume represents just in terms of continued steady margin expansion.
對我們來說,這確實是一個至少三管齊下的穩健方法,而且我們對這種方法充滿信心。不分先後,首先,我們持續產生的業務量——使我們能夠獲得很大的可見性,不僅僅是透過我們的待辦事項和待辦事項中的利潤率以及專案。我們正在討論毛利率,雖然可能略低於公司目前的平均 34% 或 35%,但這些項目的 EBITDA 利潤率高於公司平均水平。首先,我們喜歡這種動態,因為成交量代表著利潤率的持續穩定成長。
Number two, we have invested throughout the last few years in a lot of areas to support and to drive growth. And those investments will continue. But as we get larger and we approach $1 billion, they sort of modulate, right? They're able to be absorbed with more sales. And so that's prong number two, if you will, is that we're going to just get more G&A leverage and even some S&E leverage as we get growth from resources that are already in place. Then last but not least, and in fact, this is driving a lot of our nice gross margin expansion over the last few years, and we'll continue to bolster and improve that area.
第二,過去幾年,我們在許多領域進行了投資,以支持和推動成長。這些投資將會持續。但隨著我們規模的擴大,接近 10 億美元時,它們就會有所調整,對吧?它們能夠隨著銷售額的增加而消化。所以,第二點,如果你願意這麼稱呼的話,就是我們將獲得更多的 G&A 槓桿,甚至一些 S&E 槓桿,因為我們將從現有資源中獲得成長。最後但同樣重要的是,事實上,這正是過去幾年我們毛利率大幅成長的主要驅動力,我們將繼續加強和改善這一領域。
It's that our operating excellence teams and investments in other areas of cost management like 80/20, which we're just now deploying in the fourth quarter in our first set of businesses are really targeted at maximum efficiencies, right? They're targeted at finding ways and then executing on ways to get more logistics savings, to get more cost management savings in our operations. A lot of our businesses have grown rapidly over the last few years.
我們的卓越營運團隊以及在成本管理其他領域(如 80/20 成本法)的投資,正是旨在實現最大效率,對吧?我們目前正在第四季度在第一批業務中部署 80/20 成本法。他們的目標是找到方法,然後執行各種方法,以節省物流成本,從而在我們的營運中節省更多成本管理費用。過去幾年,我們很多業務都發展迅速。
And 80/20, for example, is one process that really goes back and looks at now that you're twice the size you were four years ago, how would you -- how should you design -- redesign your organization for maximal efficiency given your new normal levels of operations. So we believe and know that operating excellence in 80/20 are that third most important prong to really get our gross margins sustained and higher and to get our EBITDA margins to eventually those mid-teen results.
例如,80/20 法則就是一個需要回顧並審視的流程,即現在你的規模是四年前的兩倍,你應該如何設計——你應該如何重新設計你的組織,才能在新的正常營運水平下實現最大效率。因此我們相信並知道,80/20 的卓越營運是真正實現毛利率持續成長並最終實現 EBITDA 利潤率達到 15% 以上水準的第三個最重要的因素。
We just like the steady approach of getting it up 100 to 150 basis points next year, maybe higher. Certainly, would depend a little bit on volume and some of the mix. But look, we're on our way to the mid-teens, if not higher margins over time, and we're just having that balanced diet of areas and processes that we think are important.
我們比較喜歡明年穩定調高 100 到 150 個基點,甚至更高。當然,這在一定程度上取決於音量和混音情況。但你看,隨著時間的推移,我們的利潤率正在朝著十幾個百分點甚至更高的目標邁進,我們只是在我們認為重要的領域和流程之間保持著平衡。
Operator
Operator
Gerry Sweeney, ROTH.
Gerry Sweeney,ROTH。
Gerry Sweeney - Analyst
Gerry Sweeney - Analyst
Congrats on a nice quarter. AI topic du jour, so let's stick with it. But just curious on the project side. So some of these data centers, they are switching different power, going a little bit more towards disaggregated power opportunities. Are there any opportunities in those locations for you guys versus the large turbine builds, et cetera?
恭喜你本季業績出色。人工智慧是今天的熱門話題,所以我們就繼續討論它。只是對專案方面比較好奇。因此,部分資料中心正在轉向不同的供電方式,更多地採用分散式供電方案。與大型渦輪機建設等項目相比,這些地方對你們來說有哪些機會?
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
It depends on how they choose to power the microgrid. If it's reciprocating equipment, the answer is little opportunity. If it's small format industrial gas turbines or aeroderivative gas turbines, there are certainly opportunities, but it depends on how the solution is defined and how many will be -- how many are present. The challenge in answering that question definitively is there's no single standard concept for any of these solutions.
這取決於他們選擇如何為微型電網供電。如果是往復式設備,那麼機會就很少。如果是小型工業燃氣渦輪機或航空衍生燃氣渦輪機,肯定存在機會,但這取決於解決方案的定義以及數量——也就是現有數量。要給出明確的答案,困難在於這些解決方案都沒有統一的標準概念。
Gerry Sweeney - Analyst
Gerry Sweeney - Analyst
Then just sticking with the AI stuff or the power generation and build-out. At some point, does that expansion for a lack of a better word, stall just because there's just enough -- not enough capacity at some point in some of these build-outs? So instead of it being a higher hump, it's more of an elongated process. And do you have a sense of what that is if that's true?
然後就只專注於人工智慧或是發電和建設方面的事情。在某種程度上,這種擴張(暫且這麼說吧)是否會因為某些建設項目的產能不足而停滯不前?所以,它不是一個較高的隆起,而是一個較長的過程。如果這是真的,你覺得那會是什麼樣子?
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
The answer as we see it is, yes, it will be elongated because there isn't enough supply to deliver what is presently being called for demanded. When you hear numbers being thrown around like $1 trillion of investment in data centers is going to $3 trillion per year, it's eye-watering and it's kind of hard to kind of make sense of it all. But Jensen Huang will be telling us it's going to be $3 billion a year -- $3 trillion a year for the next decade in order to satisfy global demand. That suggests that the amount of megawatts that have to be delivered to power that is well in excess of what industry can supply today, and we'll be providing it for many years to come. We also can't forget there's three other demands being placed on our power grids.
我們認為答案是肯定的,工期將會延長,因為目前的供應不足以滿足需求。當你聽到諸如資料中心每年投資 1 兆美元將成長到 3 兆美元這樣的數字時,你會瞠目結舌,很難理解這一切。但黃仁勳會告訴我們,為了滿足全球需求,未來十年每年的投入將達到 30 億美元——甚至 3 兆美元。這表明,需要輸送到電網的兆瓦數遠遠超過了目前工業界所能提供的電力,而且在未來很多年裡,我們仍將需要提供這種電力。我們也不能忘記,我們的電網還面臨其他三項需求。
We have a demand for new businesses, new manufacturing returning to the US and other developed countries. So that reshoring dynamic is raising the demand on energy. We have the electrification of everything from transport to manufacturing process to heating and cooling to moving goods within warehouses. That's another source of demand.
我們需要新的企業,新的製造業回歸美國和其他已開發國家。因此,製造業回流的趨勢正在提高能源需求。從交通運輸到生產製造,從暖氣冷氣到倉庫貨物搬運,我們已經實現了各個環節的電氣化。這是另一個需求來源。
Finally, you've got -- AI is what people are focused on, but good old-fashioned computing. Cloud computing and more people operating computers for gaming and for crypto mining and for trading all requires electricity, and they're all going to be put on the grid in waves. And there's plenty of analytics that suggests this is going to run to 2040 at some level, going to run to 2030 at an elevated level. We're just at the beginning.
最後,你會發現——人們關注的是人工智慧,但傳統的電腦技術仍然不可或缺。雲端運算以及越來越多的人使用電腦進行遊戲、加密貨幣挖礦和交易都需要電力,而這些都需要分批接入電網。大量分析表明,這種情況將持續到 2040 年,並且會以較高的水平持續到 2030 年。我們才剛開始。
Gerry Sweeney - Analyst
Gerry Sweeney - Analyst
On that front, historically, I think a lot of your M&A has been maybe in the water and industrial side. Do you look at the opportunity on the power side? Are there acquisitions or opportunities for you to expand adjacent to what you're doing or add additional solutions to expand your wallet share?
從歷史上看,我認為你們的許多併購活動可能都集中在水利和工業領域。您是否考慮過電力方面的機會?是否有收購或拓展業務的機會,或可以增加其他解決方案來擴大市場佔有率?
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Our pipeline is balanced. We like it to be that we push all of our businesses to think of ways organically and inorganically to advance their leadership. That's true in our energy businesses. Look, we -- to your point, our transactions have been more skewed to building and advancing a leadership position in industrial water, certainly doing the same in industrial air.
當然。我們的產品供應平衡。我們希望推動旗下所有業務部門思考如何透過有機成長和非有機成長來提升其領導地位。在我們的能源業務中,情況確實如此。沒錯,正如您所說,我們的交易更側重於在工業用水領域建立和提升領導地位,當然,在工業空氣領域也是如此。
But we've made some smart investments. The Transcend acquisition, separation filtration business, which has a large aftermarket and installed base was -- it was a great investment, high-margin investment for us that we made a few years ago, continues to grow. We've doubled the business as we start to really stretch our legs on that acquisition. There's others that we would look at doing in the space as well.
但我們已經進行了一些明智的投資。Transcend 的收購,即分離過濾業務,擁有龐大的售後市場和裝機量——這對我們來說是一項偉大的投資,一項高利潤的投資,是我們幾年前做出的,並且還在持續增長。隨著我們開始真正利用那次收購來擴大業務規模,我們的業務量已經翻了一番。在這個領域,我們也會考慮做其他一些事情。
Operator
Operator
Bobby Brooks, Northland Capital Markets.
Bobby Brooks,北地資本市場。
Robert Brooks - Equity Analyst
Robert Brooks - Equity Analyst
I was just curious to double-click on the 2026 guide. I was just curious what -- and I know you've touched on it a little bit, but just to go a little bit deeper, what sort of macroeconomic backdrop are you assuming in the ranges of your '26 guide?
我只是好奇地雙擊打開了 2026 年指南。我只是好奇——我知道您已經稍微提到過,但為了更深入地了解一下,您在 2026 年的指導方針中假設了什麼樣的宏觀經濟背景?
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Look, I think we're stable, I think, is what I'd start with that word. We're not -- we don't feel we need a significant positive change in the macroeconomics. I think we're reading the same headlines, and we're sensitive to certain things that could influence the economy, whether it's interest rates and tariffs, certainly, we've all become much more accustomed to the dynamics that exist with the direction changes at times around the tariff topics. And I think supply chains have been stable in their management of that.
是的。你看,我認為我們很穩定,我想用「穩定」這個詞來開頭。我們並不認為-我們覺得宏觀經濟不需要有重大的正向改變。我認為我們都在關注同樣的新聞標題,而且我們對某些可能影響經濟的因素非常敏感,無論是利率還是關稅,當然,我們都已經越來越習慣於關稅問題上時常出現的方向性變化。我認為供應鏈在這方面一直保持穩定。
I think that there's certainly things that could change our view of the macro economy because we certainly aren't on an island if things go completely different. But we certainly don't see a major positive or negative swing over the next 12 months. We think that there are reasons that things could change. But where we sit right now with our pipeline and our backlog, look, for us, Bobby, frankly, it's about the visibility of pretty steady markets, right? Like it's hard for us to sit here today and say that over the next six months, these important power jobs are going to care about some of these headline topics, right?
我認為肯定會有一些因素會改變我們對宏觀經濟的看法,因為如果情況完全不同,我們肯定不是孤島。但我們預計未來 12 個月內不會大幅上漲或下跌。我們認為事情可能會發生變化,這是有原因的。但就我們目前的項目儲備和積壓訂單而言,鮑比,坦白說,對我們來說,關鍵在於市場能否保持相對穩定,對吧?就像我們今天坐在這裡很難說,在接下來的六個月裡,這些重要的權力職位會關注這些頭條新聞,對吧?
I mean, certainly, things can change that, but tariffs and interest rates aren't going to really change these important investments. Same thing with reshoring. These water projects are somewhat unrelated to the general economy. So we're not -- as you well know and have done a great job of analyzing, we're not super sensitive to short or intermediate changes in, let's say, consumer sentiment or certain geographic-specific shifts. We're probably -- given that 100% of our sales is in industrial with industrial customers that are really in expansion and investment mode in a multiyear theme, it's hard for us to see a major economic shift in that.
我的意思是,當然,情況可能會有所改變,但關稅和利率並不會真正改變這些重要的投資。回流到海外也是一樣。這些水利工程與整體經濟關係不大。所以,如您所知,而且您也出色地分析過,我們對消費者情緒或某些特定地理的變化等短期或中期變化並不十分敏感。鑑於我們 100% 的銷售額都來自工業領域,而工業客戶正處於多年擴張和投資模式,我們很難看到經濟領域出現重大轉變。
Robert Brooks - Equity Analyst
Robert Brooks - Equity Analyst
Then I wanted to circle back on the cross-selling opportunities with Profire. So you've had Profire under your umbrella for 9, 10 months now. And I know one of the most exciting pieces to that acquisition was the cross-selling opportunities with their applications that historically had only went into US oilfield service -- US oilfield service customers to then cross-sell that into your wide range of industrial customers as well as bringing it to your international OFS customers. So just curious to kind of hear an update on that and how that's progressed so far.
然後我想再探討一下與 Profire 的交叉銷售機會。所以你們使用 Profire 已經有 9 到 10 個月了。我知道此次收購最令人興奮的部分之一是交叉銷售機會,他們的應用程式過去只面向美國油田服務客戶,現在我們可以將這些應用程式交叉銷售給廣泛的工業客戶,以及國際油田服務客戶。所以,我很好奇想了解這方面的最新進展。
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Look, it's still a huge, we think, opportunity for Profire as a business. And we spent a lot of time with the team, including recently, including, by the way, them being one of the early businesses where we're going to be deploying and utilizing 80/20 to really get a firm grasp of how we can implement it at CECO. So a lot of dialogue with Profire, both in terms of opportunities to cross-sell and to break into new geographic and industrial markets. I think that there's a lot of good progress.
是的。我們認為,這對 Profire 來說仍然是一個巨大的商業機會。我們花了很多時間和團隊在一起,包括最近,順便說一句,他們是我們最早部署和利用 80/20 的企業之一,以便真正掌握如何在 CECO 實施它。因此,我們與 Profire 進行了許多對話,包括交叉銷售的機會以及打入新的地理和行業市場的機會。我認為取得了許多良好的進展。
Look, it's still only been 9, 10 months. We always say -- we give it a year. We let our businesses get sort of settled in. We look for ways to invest operationally and commercially. Those programs are being put in place now. The team, I know, is very excited to be part of CECO. Certainly, they're looking at market dynamics within their core markets in the oilfields and energy applications. So they're constantly looking at ways to innovate and to make investments.
你看,現在才過了9、10個月而已。我們總是說——我們給它一年。我們讓業務慢慢步入正軌。我們正在尋找在營運和商業方面進行投資的機會。這些項目正在逐步實施中。我知道,團隊成員都非常興奮能夠成為 CECO 的一部分。當然,他們正在關注其核心市場(油田和能源應用)的市場動態。因此,他們一直在尋找創新和投資的方法。
So we've had some good discussions about organic and inorganic investments in Profire. I continue to believe it's a business that is a $100 million business in a few years down the road. And some of those are certainly the result of our ability to bring their product into more industrial and international applications.
我們已經就Profire的有機和非有機投資進行了一些很好的討論。我仍然相信,幾年後它將成為一個價值 1 億美元的企業。當然,其中一些成果得益於我們能夠將他們的產品推廣到更多工業和國際應用領域。
Robert Brooks - Equity Analyst
Robert Brooks - Equity Analyst
Then just last one for me. Todd, you quote in the press release saying depending on timing, fourth quarter of this year could be the largest booking quarter ever, which is some really strong commentary and not something you've specifically noted in prior press releases. So I was just curious, aside from the multitude of shots on goal you have, especially with the large power gen and water projects, what else has given you confidence to speak to that? And maybe have you already had strong orders quarter-to-date through October?
那我最後也得問一個了。托德,你在新聞稿中引用了一句話,說根據時機,今年第四季度可能是預訂量最大的季度,這番話非常有力,而且你之前在新聞稿中並沒有特別提到過。所以我很好奇,除了你有很多機會去爭取,特別是大型發電和水利工程之外,還有什麼讓你有信心談論這些?或許你們本季(截至10月份)的訂單量已經非常強勁了?
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So yes, look, it's a good catch. And obviously, we put it in there for sort of a reason. And that reason is quite simple. Bring these two things together, Bobby. One is we just delivered our fourth consecutive quarter of orders over -- well over $200 million.
所以,沒錯,這確實是個不錯的收穫。很顯然,我們把它放在那裡是有原因的。原因很簡單。鮑比,把這兩件事結合起來。一是我們剛剛連續第四個季度交付了超過 2 億美元的訂單。
And we're very pleased with orders of north of $230 million. And that this past quarter, the third quarter, while it gave us very nice year-over-year growth and a new record backlog, and it really didn't include any of the large, call them, mega jobs. It certainly had several very important and decently sized jobs. And historically, certainly would have been jobs that we might have called out because they were between $20 million and, let's say, $40 million. But for where we're at now in both power and international industrial water, they're not going to represent some of our larger jobs.
我們對超過 2.3 億美元的訂單感到非常滿意。而上個季度,也就是第三季度,雖然實現了非常不錯的同比增長,並創下了新的積壓訂單紀錄,但實際上並沒有包括任何大型的,或者說,超級項目。它確實承接了幾個非常重要且規模相當大的項目。從歷史上看,這些項目肯定是我們可能會重點關注的,因為它們的金額在 2000 萬美元到 4000 萬美元之間。但就我們目前在電力和國際工業用水領域的情況而言,它們不會代表我們的一些大型專案。
And so the fact that, let's say, in our largest quarter year-to-date, we had one mega job. And in the third quarter, we still produced over 230. We didn't have one. And yet we believe we're very close in terms of timing on a purchase order, which is how we book a job. Even if we have a verbal, we don't book anything until we have all of the Ts and Cs and purchase orders and everything completed.
因此,比如說,在我們今年迄今為止最大的一個季度裡,我們只有一個超級大專案。第三季度,我們仍然生產了超過 230 件。我們沒有。但我們相信,在採購訂單的時間安排上,我們已經非常接近了,而採購訂單正是我們安排工作的方式。即使我們達成了口頭協議,在所有條款和條件、採購訂單以及所有其他事項都完成後,我們也不會預訂任何東西。
So I think it's a confidence in not just the visibility in our pipeline, but where we're at in several, not just one, but maybe several relationships and dialogues and verbals that we were getting from customers. So look, if the timing in Q4 is it more than one, but several of those occur. Now you're looking at our first quarter with more than one mega job, and that will give us -- certainly, that's the confidence that we have, and that's why we're sharing it. Look, if it doesn't happen, we're still -- we have a lot of visibility to another great quarter of well over $200 million. But if they do happen, then as I said in our prepared remarks in the call, we will see -- what we believe we could see a quarter over $300 million.
所以我認為這不僅是對我們銷售管道的可見性的信心,也是對我們與客戶之間多個(可能不只一個,而是多個)關係、對話和口頭溝通的信心。所以你看,如果第四季發生的時間不只一次,而是好幾次。現在,你們看到的是我們第一季不只一個大型項目,這無疑會帶給我們信心——這就是我們所擁有的信心,也是我們與大家分享的原因。你看,即便這事沒發生,我們仍然——我們很有把握迎來又一個業績斐然的季度,營收將超過 2 億美元。但如果這種情況真的發生,正如我在電話會議的準備發言中所說,我們將會看到——我們相信我們可能會看到一個季度超過 3 億美元。
Operator
Operator
Jim Ricchiuti, Needham & Company.
吉姆‧里奇烏蒂 (Jim Ricchiuti),李約瑟公司。
James Ricchiuti - Analyst
James Ricchiuti - Analyst
One I'd like to just follow up though.
我還有一件事想跟進。
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Jim, we're having a hard time hearing you. The line is choppy.
吉姆,我們聽不太清楚你說話。電話線斷斷續續的。
James Ricchiuti - Analyst
James Ricchiuti - Analyst
Okay. Any better, Peter? This any better?
好的。彼得,感覺好些了嗎?這樣好些了嗎?
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's a lot better. A lot better. Thank you.
好多了。好多了。謝謝。
James Ricchiuti - Analyst
James Ricchiuti - Analyst
Good. So yeah, just a follow-up question just on gross margin. I appreciate the commentary and citing the sequential -- the seasonal issue in gross margin in Q3 of last year. But on the other hand, you had, I think, a sequential decline in revenues in Q3. So I'm just trying to get comfortable with what's happening with gross margin. Peter, you alluded to something I may have missed it. You talked about some issue, a closeout issue that impacted the Q3 gross margin. Wondering if you could size that for me.
好的。是的,還有一個關於毛利率的後續問題。我很欣賞您的評論,並引用了去年第三季毛利率的季節性問題。但另一方面,我認為你們第三季的營收則是環比下降了。所以,我還在努力適應毛利率的變動。彼得,你暗示了一些我可能錯過的事情。您提到了一些問題,一個影響第三季毛利率的結算問題。請問您能幫我量一下尺寸嗎?
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Peter Johansson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
It was about -- it contributed 30 to 50 basis points of the reduction. It was a project that we decided we would negotiate with our client to get it closed, get all outstanding change orders recognized, put it behind us, free those teams up and move on. It was a project that started out with a lot of positive vibes. And at the end, it was just one of those where we decided we probably needed to terminate and move on from each other.
大約——它貢獻了30到50個基點的降幅。我們決定與客戶協商完成這個項目,確認所有未決的變更訂單,把這件事拋在腦後,解放那些團隊,然後繼續前進。這個專案一開始就充滿了正面的氛圍。最後,我們覺得或許應該結束這段關係,各自開始新的生活。
James Ricchiuti - Analyst
James Ricchiuti - Analyst
And just, again --
再次--
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'm sorry, I just want to add to, look, our seasonally -- our softest quarter from a gross margin perspective is historically Q3. So we sort of model in a decline just naturally. There's just certain cost of goods sales costs that get sort of trapped in the quarter, while volumes were solid, just the dynamic of the quarter is typically a lower quarter for us from a gross margin perspective. You'll see it if you look back at most of our Q3s. It's not a guarantee that it's always going to be the softest of our quarters, but I would be willing to bet that 80% of the time, Q3 for us is the most impacted from a gross margin.
抱歉,我只是想補充一點,你看,從季節性因素來看——從毛利率的角度來看,我們歷史上業績最差的季度是第三季。所以,我們自然而然就把衰退納入模型了。某些商品銷售成本會被滯留在季度內,雖然銷量表現穩健,但從毛利率的角度來看,這個季度通常是我們業績較低的季度。如果你回顧我們大多數季度的業績報告,你會發現這一點。雖然不能保證第三季度總是我們業績最差的季度,但我敢打賭,80% 的情況下,第三季度的毛利率都會受到最大的影響。
If it dips, it's going to dip in Q3. So again, I'm not trying to just say, well, it's a seasonal thing, but we already had modeled in that we were going to have a bit of a decline. There's always some smaller pieces, like Peter mentioned, that could be 30 to 50 basis points of additional contraction. Some inflation did occur in the third quarter, which the timing of which is something we're going to work through, just like we have in other quarters. So look, we're not -- we were very happy with where our gross margins were year-to-date prior to Q3. Q3 was not different than we had sort of imagined it could be. We believe that we're going to get back to higher gross margins. But certainly, we've seen some impacts in inflation. It's modest.
如果下跌,那肯定會在第三季下跌。所以,我並不是想說這只是季節性因素,而是我們已經在模型中預測到會出現一些下滑。就像彼得提到的那樣,總是會有一些較小的因素,可能會導致額外的經濟收縮 30 到 50 個基點。第三季確實出現了一些通貨膨脹,其發生的時間點是我們正在努力解決的問題,就像我們在其他季度所做的那樣。所以你看,我們並不——在第三季之前,我們對年初至今的毛利率非常滿意。第三季的情況和我們之前預想的差不多。我們相信毛利率會恢復到較高水準。但可以肯定的是,我們已經看到通膨方面出現了一些影響。它很樸素。
James Ricchiuti - Analyst
James Ricchiuti - Analyst
Again, looking out to 2026, it sounds like you're assuming somewhat lower gross margin or maybe I misinterpreted your comment. And that's really -- if that's the case, that's a function mainly of mix, both industrial air and industrial water, a larger percentage of some of these bigger deals?
再說,展望 2026 年,聽起來你似乎假設毛利率會略低一些,或者可能是我誤解了你的意思。如果是這樣,那主要是工業空氣和工業用水的混合比例,在一些較大的交易中,這兩種物質的比例更高?
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I think it's -- we are just providing a view that if our gross margins in '26 are lower on average than '25, it's mostly because of mix, large power jobs, large water jobs that would just have lower gross margin, but would maintain very good EBITDA margins because the amount of G&A associated with those jobs is minimal. And so -- and they're large jobs. So just the scale, the mix scale size of these large jobs would be hard for us to overcome mathematically in gross margin, but not hard for us to overcome in terms -- in fact, would be beneficial to the EBITDA line. So it's more an indication that if gross margins are a little lower next year, we don't believe it's a dynamic that's changing in price or inflation.
是的。我認為——我們只是提供一種觀點,即如果我們在 2026 年的平均毛利率低於 2025 年,這主要是因為業務組合,大型電力項目、大型水務項目等毛利率較低,但 EBITDA 利潤率會保持非常高,因為與這些項目相關的管理費用很少。所以——而且這些都是大工程。因此,這些大型專案的規模和組合規模,從數學上來說,我們很難在毛利率方面克服,但從實際意義上來說,我們並不難克服——事實上,這對 EBITDA 指標是有利的。因此,這更表明,如果明年的毛利率略有下降,我們認為這不是由價格或通貨膨脹等因素造成的。
Those are things that we feel comfortable with. In fact, look, there are potential opportunities in nuclear, in defense, and in a few other areas of aftermarket in short cycle that if they occur throughout the year at the volumes that they could, those gross margins are materially higher than the average CECO gross margin and can certainly work to offset any natural gravitational pull down on margins from large power jobs and large water infrastructure jobs. So look, right now, we're balancing it out. We don't give gross margin outlook for the year. We're just signaling that if it is lower, we're not sure that it's a real headwind as much as it is just the mathematical dynamics of the size of the jobs that are pulling it down.
這些都是我們覺得舒服的事。事實上,你看,核能、國防以及其他一些短週期售後市場領域存在潛在的機會,如果這些機會能夠全年以可能的數量出現,那麼這些毛利率將遠高於 CECO 的平均毛利率,並且肯定可以抵消大型電力項目和大型水利基礎設施項目對利潤率造成的任何自然拉扯。所以你看,現在我們正在努力平衡。我們不提供全年毛利率預期。我們只是想表明,如果就業人數下降,我們不確定這是否真的是一個不利因素,而更多的是就業規模的數學動態因素正在拉低就業人數。
Operator
Operator
Joseph Giordano, TD Cowen.
Joseph Giordano,TD Cowen。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
This is Chris on for Joe. Have you observed any change in customer sentiment or project timing for water, wastewater infrastructure investments contingent in part or whole on some form of government funding as a result of any changes in pace of disbursements from Infrastructure and Jobs Act?
這裡是克里斯,替喬發言。您是否觀察到,由於《基礎設施和就業法案》撥款速度的變化,客戶對部分或全部依賴政府資金的水務、污水處理基礎設施投資項目的態度或項目進度有任何變化?
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. We don't. And I think I don't want to sound like we're unique in the fact that we're saying we don't. I would say it's mostly a quick and confident answer that we don't see an impact because in the large infrastructure jobs that we're participating in, they're not US based programs or even necessarily European-based. They're located in regions where either that dynamic isn't occurring, where there's governmental pauses or large program timing associated with monies. Instead, it's -- there are other investments that criteria altogether.
是的。我們不。而且我覺得我不想讓人覺得我們是唯一一個表示我們不會這麼做的人。我會說,我們可以快速且自信地回答,我們沒有看到任何影響,因為我們參與的大型基礎設施項目並非美國本土項目,甚至不一定是歐洲項目。它們位於那些要么沒有出現這種動態的地區,要么存在政府暫停撥款或與資金相關的大型項目時間表的地區。相反,有其他投資完全不符合這些標準。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Can you provide an update on how your short-cycle business trended during the quarter? And it's expected to be a larger share of the mix in the 2026 and what you see contributing to that?
能否提供一下貴公司短期業務在本季的發展趨勢?預計到 2026 年,它在組合中所佔的份額將會更大,您認為促成這一現象的原因是什麼?
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So the mix of our short cycle is steady. But the short-cycle businesses are growing nicely and continue to add, I think, great results to our performance. Mix is tricky because if we have large power jobs and certainly, those are longer cycle. If we have large water jobs, those can be longer cycle.
是的。因此,我們短週期的組合是穩定的。但短期業務發展良好,我認為它們將繼續為我們的業績帶來顯著成果。混合作業很棘手,因為如果我們有高功率作業,而且這些作業的週期肯定會更長。如果水處理工程量很大,工期可能會更長。
So the mix, all of a sudden, looks like it's staying steady when, in fact, short cycle could be growing rapidly inside our organization. Just hard to overcome the mix shift. But look, we -- four years ago, we had at best 20% as a percentage of sales in short cycle. We continue to be up above 30%. Now again, the mix of that can change depending on the jobs.
因此,這種組合突然看起來似乎保持穩定,但實際上,短週期產品可能在我們公司內部迅速成長。只是很難克服這種混音變化。但你看,四年前,我們短期銷售佔最多只有 20%。我們持續保持在30%以上。當然,具體組合會根據工作的不同而有所變化。
But our goal over time is through organic and inorganic balance to find 50-50. That continues to be our goal. It might not be a 2026 dynamic because of how our jobs are going to flow through our P&L. But again, we like the fact that we continue to add applications and businesses with a lot more aftermarket content, more filtration, more aftermarket parts and services. So it is a continued investment for us, but the short cycle has been pretty steady throughout the year.
但我們最終的目標是透過有機和無機的平衡,達到 50-50 的平衡。這仍然是我們的目標。2026 年的情況可能不會如此,因為我們的工作安排將如何影響我們的損益表。但我們很高興看到,我們不斷增加擁有更多售後內容、更多過濾功能、更多售後零件和服務的應用程式和企業。所以對我們來說,這是一項持續的投資,但全年的短期週期一直相當穩定。
Operator
Operator
I am showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back to Todd Gleason for closing remarks.
我不會再提出其他問題了。現在我把電話轉回給陶德‧格里森,請他作總結發言。
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Todd Gleason - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you very much, and thanks, everyone, for the questions and of course, the interest in our information today. Importantly, to our global teams that are delivering incredible value for our customers, thank you very much for all that you do. It's important for our customers that we have the most talented organization to protect people, to protect the environment and to protect our customers' investment in their industrial equipment. We're passionate about that. We are going to be presenting at several conferences in November and December. The information of those can be found at our Investor Relations website. We look forward to meeting with many of you when we're out on the road as well. So with that, we're going to end the call today. We appreciate it, and have a great day.
非常感謝,也感謝大家提出的問題,當然,也感謝大家對我們今天訊息的關注。尤其要感謝我們全球團隊為客戶創造的巨大價值,非常感謝你們所做的一切。對於我們的客戶而言,擁有最優秀的人才來保護人員、保護環境以及保護客戶在工業設備上的投資至關重要。我們對此充滿熱情。我們將於11月和12月在幾個會議上進行報告。相關資訊可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。我們也期待在巡迴演出途中與大家見面。那麼,今天的通話就到此結束了。非常感謝,祝您今天過得愉快。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your patience. You may disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的耐心等待。您可以斷開連線。