塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2008 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the first-quarter 2008 Celanese Corp. earnings conference call. My name is Eric; I'll be your coordinator for today. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode; we will facilitate a question-and-answer session towards the end of the conference. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn your presentation over to your host for today's conference, Mr. Mark Oberle, Vice President Investor Relations Public Affairs. Please proceed, sir.

Thank you, Eric, and welcome, everyone, to the Celanese Corporation first-quarter 2008 financial results conference call. My name is Mark Oberle, Vice President of Investor Relations and Public Affairs. On the call today are David Weidman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Steven Sterin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The Celanese Corporation press release was distributed via Business Wire last night and is posted on our website, Celanese.com.

During this call management may make forward-looking statements concerning, for example, Celanese Corporation's future objectives and results which will be made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances.

Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economic, business, competitive, market, political and regulatory factors. More detailed information about these factors is contained in the earnings release and in Celanese Corporation's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Celanese Corporation undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements. Celanese Corporation's first-quarter 2008 earnings release references the performance measures operating EBITDA, affiliate EBITDA, adjusted earnings per share, net debt and adjusted free cash flow as non-U.S. GAAP measures.

For the most directly comparable financial measures presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP in our financial statements and for a reconciliation of our U.S. GAAP measures, non-U.S. GAAP measures to U.S. GAAP figures, please see the accompanying schedules to our earnings release which will also be posted on our website, Celanese.com.

This morning Dave Weidman will review the performance of the Company and Steven Sterin will provide an overview of the business results for each segment and the financials. We will have a question-and-answer period following the prepared remarks. Now I would like to turn the call over to Dave Weidman. Dave?

Mark, thank you, and welcome, everyone, to today's call. I am delighted to share with you highlights from our record first quarter 2008 and update our outlook for continued growth during the remainder of this year and beyond.

We had a great start to the year and an outstanding first quarter in a challenging economic environment. Net sales were approximately $1.8 billion, up 19% over last year's results. Adjusted EPS was $1.06 per share compared to $0.77 per share in the first quarter of 2007. Operating EBITDA was $381 million versus last year's $315 million.

Our first-quarter performance illustrates the strength of our integrated global business model, also our solid operating fundamentals and our clear focus on growth and value creation. Despite sluggish demand in certain markets and high raw material and input costs across our businesses, we continued to deliver improved performance.

Steve will give you more detailed information on the quarter in a few moments, but I'd like to focus my comments on the exciting progress that we're making in driving near-term improvement in earnings and, more importantly, positioning Celanese to deliver higher, more sustainable earnings over the next three to five years.

When I meet with our investors I'm frequently asked the question, what part of the Celanese story is being missed by the Street? In my experience I believe there are two areas of our story that are frequently overlooked. First is our well-defined growth plans; and second, our strong cash generation.

Let me walk through these elements in a little more detail and once I do I believe that you'll see that adjusted EPS of at least $5.00 per share in 2010 is not unrealistic and perhaps we may even be accused of being a bit cautious.

Our well-defined growth plans are targeted to increase the earnings power of our portfolio by approximately $350 million to $400 million from 2006 through 2010 with each of our businesses improving their operating EBITDA by at least $100 million versus the 2006 level. In 2007 you'll recall we delivered between $80 million and $90 million of these plans. So we have approximately $300 million remaining over the next three years and we're on track and confident.

Our Advanced Engineered Materials business continues to grow by at least two times global GDP, by working closely with our customers to provide innovative solutions. Our growth is fueled by market-based megatrends such as providing energy conservation solutions, enabling clean water solutions or facilitating healthcare breakthroughs.

On top of this are new exciting opportunities in China where we're building an infrastructure to support this growth with our integrated Nanjing complex. AEM already has one production facility in operation and two additional units scheduled to start up within the next several quarters. With these new facilities in place we will be very well positioned to serve China and achieve significant top-line growth in Asia.

In our Consumer and Industrial Specialties businesses the story is about revitalization and growth in Asia. Revitalization of our acetate business is nearly completed. The revitalization of our Industrial Specialties business is underway and making good progress including a restructuring of our manufacturing footprint and realignment of our technology and customer support initiatives.

Through these efforts the Consumer and Industrial Specialities businesses are expected to contribute a total of at least $100 million in increased operating EBITDA. We've already seen the tremendous increase in profitability in our acetate business and we're just beginning to see the benefits of revitalization in Industrial Specialities with more to come.

Growth in Acetyl Intermediates is driven by our China expansions and the continued favorable environment for our products. With the successful start-up of our acetic acid unit in Nanjing last year and the start-up of our vinyl acetate monomer and acetic and hydride units, which will occur over the next three quarters, we expect to see excellent growth. When sold out these three new acetyl facilities should contribute a total of over $500 million in revenue with higher operating margins than our other facilities.

These investments are already paying off and contributed to the record performance in this business both in 2007 and in the first quarter of 2008. In total the growth initiatives of all three businesses are expected to deliver approximately $300 million or between $1.00 and $1.20 per share in adjusted EPS by 2010 when compared to 2007 base year.

An additional area of value creation for Celanese is our success in generating cash. At today's earnings level we expect to generate around $500 million to $600 million per year in adjusted free cash flow and we will continue to strategically use this cash to drive significant value for our shareholders, whether through acquisitions such as Acetex or APL, capital investments such as the growth in China supported by our Nanjing facility, or cost reduction initiatives that have very attractive paybacks, Celanese has demonstrated success in capturing high value creation opportunities and will continue to do so in the future.

Additionally, over the last 12 months we've returned approximately $460 million to shareholders in the form of share buybacks with an additional authorization outstanding of $340 million. Now, if you just assume a 15% return on this cash you can add approximately another $1.00 per share to our adjusted earnings by 2010. So considering the earnings impact contributed from our growth plans and the EPS impact from our strong cash flow, we see these two elements adding over $2.00 per share more to our earnings performance by 2010 when compared to 2007.

Now I'd like to move for a moment and discuss acetyl pricing. Historically we believe that long-term sustainable pricing for acetic acid in Asia was in the $500 to $550 per ton range. As many of you know, the high cost producers and those who set the price in the industry use either ethanol or ethylene as their key feedstocks. One of the contributing factors to the price of ethanol and ethylene is the price of oil.

This $500 to $550 pricing assumption for acetic acid was accurate when oil prices were in the range of $60 to $80 per barrel. Over the last five quarters acetic acid pricing in China has averaged over $600 a ton. One of the driving factors is the price of oil. Now it's becoming increasingly likely that oil prices, whether due to supply constraints or increased global demand, could remain at these current levels for the long-term.

At this point though it seems highly likely it's not yet clear in our minds whether there will be a structural and sustainable shift to higher acetic acid pricing for the long-term. However what is clear is that over this year acetic acid pricing is expected to remain stronger than we had originally anticipated, contributing to our improved outlook for 2008.

And so with the continued execution of our growth strategy across all of our businesses, a stronger pricing environment for our acetyls business and continued global demand growth, we're raising our 2008 outlook for adjusted EPS to be between $3.60 and $3.85 per share from our previous range of $3.40 to $3.70 per share. With that I'll turn the call over to Steven.

Thanks, Dave. Let's start by turning to page 8 in the PowerPoint presentation that's posted on our website. Our net sales were approximately $1.8 billion, a 19% increase from last year driven by higher pricing on continued strong demand, higher volumes from our integrated complex in Nanjing, as well as favorable currency impact. Operating profit rose 14% to $234 million.

Our overall higher prices, volumes and productivity programs were able to more than offset significantly higher raw material and energy costs as well as spending related to our China expansion. Net earnings were $145 million versus $201 million in the first quarter of last year. Last year's results included $79 million of earnings from disc ops related to the sale of the oxo-alcohols business and the closure of the Edmonton methanol facility. Our adjusted EPS was a record $1.06 per share; this is a 38% increase from last year's results.

This quarter's results included a $0.06 per share benefit from the share repurchase programs executed over the last year. This benefit was partially offset by $0.020 of year-over-year option dilution. Operating EBITDA was also a record at $381 million, a 21% increase versus last year.

Let's now turn to the results of each of our businesses, starting with advanced engineered materials on page 9. Net sales were $294 million, up 12% from last year's results with 6% volume growth as well as positive effects from currency. We continue to see the growth in this business and we're also beginning to see the benefits of our strategy for growth in China which is a key driver in the increased sales for the quarter.

The increased net sales were partially offset by lower average pricing as a result of geographic and product mix. Operating EBITDA was down 10% year-over-year as high raw material and energy costs continued to pressure margins. We also had lower earnings in our equity affiliates which faced these same margin pressures.

On page 10 net sales for Consumer Specialties were $282 million. This was a 5% increase over last year's results. The increase was primarily driven by higher pricing, continued strong global demand as well as favorable currency. The quarter also included additional sales and profit from the Acetate Products Limited acquisition which closed in February of last year.

The lower volumes this quarter were associated with our strategic decision to shift flake production to our China ventures following the closure of our Edmonton facility. Keep in mind that you'll see the positive impact of the strategic shift in the form of increased dividends from these ventures in the second quarter.

Operating EBITDA was $65 million, up 8% from last year as the higher pricing, along with the synergies we've captured from our APL acquisition, contributed to the improved results. We're very pleased with the success of the APL integration and at this point believe that we've achieved our expected level of synergy capture from this business.

Turning now to Industrial Specialties on page 11 -- net sales in these businesses were $365 million, a 5% increase from last year's results. Higher pricing on continued strong global demand and foreign currency drove the increased sales. These increases were offset by lower overall volumes in the quarter, principally due to three items -- continued softness in the U.S. housing and construction segments; some residual impact from the lost business associated with last year's acetyls force majeure; and a tough comp due to strong demand in Germany last year in anticipation of a tax law change.

Additionally, as part of the segment's revitalization efforts we focused our selling efforts on higher value added applications and consequently moved away from some segments. Operating EBITDA, however, was up significantly, 38% this quarter as increased revenue more than offset the higher raw material costs.

On page 12 Acetyl Intermediates net sales were approximately $1.1 billion, up 31% from last year and a record for the quarter. If you break this down, we saw volume growth of 8%; pricing of 17% and favorable currency of 6%. The additional volume was from our acetic acid unit in Nanjing that successfully started production last year and continues to run at very high operating rates.

Operating EBITDA was $246 million, a 41% improvement over last year as the favorable industry dynamics and higher dividends from our Ibn Sina cost affiliate more than offset higher raw material and energy costs.

Now let's turn to our equity and cost investment performance on page 13. The income statement impact for the first quarter is shown in the chart on the left. Our earnings impact was $38 million, a 15% improvement over last year's results. Our Ibn Sina methanol and MTBE cost affiliate more than offset the lower earnings from our Asian equity affiliates.

You will also see that we had higher cash dividends from our cost affiliates, driven by the performance of Ibn Sina, and higher dividends from our equity investments, primarily timing related. Keep in mind that the methanol earnings from Ibn Sina provide a natural hedge to a near identical exposure in our AEM business, which has seen margin pressures of late.

On page 14, you can see our continued strong cash flow reflected by a $94 million increase in net operating cash flows from continuing operations. Capital expenditures were $32 million higher as we near completion of our capital spend in Nanjing. Our adjusted free cash flow was $67 million in the quarter, an increase of $54 million from last year, as a result of our strong operating performance, lower cash taxes and higher dividends.

Let's now turn to Page 15 where we summarize our business outlook in 2008 guidance. As Dave mentioned earlier, we have increased our 2008 guidance for adjusted EPS and operating EBITDA. We now expect adjusted EPS to be between $3.60 and $3.85 a share, and operating EBITDA to be between $1.355 billion and $1.415 billion. This guidance is based on our adjusted tax rate of 26%. I won't read you the business specific drivers, but in summary, our outlook remains relatively unchanged for all of our businesses.

The one exception is our view for acetic acid pricing in Asia, which as Dave highlighted is expected to remain of elevated levels throughout 2008, versus our prior outlook which had factored in moderating price levels in the second half of the year.

Slide 16 highlights some of the additional components of our outlook. As we mentioned earlier, Ibn Sina has had a strong performance so far this year. So we are updating our full-year outlook for affiliated income to $200 million to $215 million. We're increasing our expectation for net interest expense by $10 million, due in large part to currency translation related to the strong euro.

Our full-year outlook for diluted share count is 167 million shares, which is where we ended the first quarter. We haven't assumed a number for future share repurchases, but we do intend to continue to be in the market opportunistically during the remainder of the year. Our current guidance reflects only the share repurchases made to date, which is approximately $60 million or 1.6 million shares.

The current guidance assumes that the remaining authorization stays on the balance sheet as cash. As we progress with our program, we'll update you quarterly on what to expect for share count and net interest expense. Depreciation and amortization is expected to be up slightly primarily related to foreign currency exchange. The last change is cash taxes which are expected to be approximately $25 million higher, principally driven by our increased earnings outlook.

In total, when you consider these changes and our increased earnings, our adjusted free cash flow expectation has increased to $550 million to $600 million for the year. Our strong cash generation is a differentiator in our space and, as Dave said, a source of significant value creation opportunity and sustainable earnings growth for the Company. With that I'd like to turn it back over to Mark to open the Q&A.

Thanks, Steven. Eric, if you could give some instructions we'll be ready to open it up for Q&A.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

Thanks. We'd like to ask everyone to try to limit their questions to one question and a follow-up and, if you have additional, feel free to get back in the queue and we'll handle as many questions as we can. Thanks.

Sergey Vasnetsov, Lehman Brothers.

Good morning. David, looking at your very strong cash flow I'm trying to spend the money and so one of the lines could be use the money this year is working capital. What's your outlook given the high energy prices? Your working capital jumped by $140 million in the first quarter, is it suggesting a seasonal and what do you expect for the full year?

I'll let Steve touch on a little bit of the details on it, but we had two factors going on, one was seasonality and the other was the higher input cost. Steve?

As you look at our working capital we actually are in really good shape. As you probably know, the first quarter is typically the seasonal high point for working capital just in anticipation of the high demand in the first half. But we're still at about 13% of sales and as you look across the industry I think you'll find that if it's not the best in the industry it's certainly in the top decile.

Okay. And so what's your updated view on the M&A prospects for this year?

We continue to focus on acquisitions that will (technical difficulty). So Acetyl, Advanced Engineered Materials, emulsions type acquisitions, those would be the areas that we look at. Principally focused in Asia, not because we have a bias there, but because those are where the opportunities are and we continue to work it.

Candidly speaking though, as we look at it pricing for acquisitions today is high, but we continue to be optimistic that we'll be able to use some of the shareholders' cash and make some good strategic acquisitions through this year and into next year.

Congratulations for the good results again. Thanks.

Edlain Rodriguez, Goldman Sachs.

Good morning, guys. Dave, a quick question for you. On stock buyback, when the Board made the decision to buy back shares, that was like in February, the stock was at a much lower price than it is right now. Do you still believe this is the right way to spend cash and should we expect to see the remaining $340 million be done by the end of this year?

The Board has authorized in the last 12 months $800 million of share buyback, we completed $400 million and then got an authorization for an additional $400 million and we've spent $60 million on it this quarter. We continue to be believers that the stock is undervalued at this point. We continue to believe that it is a good investment opportunity for all shareholders including ourselves. We'll continue to measure the merits of share buyback against other uses of cash, but at this point in time we continue to be bullish on the Company's performance long-term. As I highlighted in my remarks, we feel that the stock is undervalued.

That's good to hear. Another follow-up or quick question on Ticona. We're well aware of the margin pressure we're seeing due to cost. But when you're looking at oil prices at above $100 and gasoline prices moving up, can you talk about potential for the market penetration in auto or auto applications as manufacturers try to save costs and switch to Ticona type resins?

This is -- that's an excellent question. This is frankly a perfect environment for our Advanced Engineered Materials business. 70 plus percent of the product we sell today is on specification. And remember, those specifications were set three to five years ago, not today.

We're seeing significant increased activity not only in Detroit but also -- not only in the transportation space but in other areas as the megatrends that we're seeing, whether it be energy or environmental concerns, play right into the sweet spot of Ticona. This really bodes well going forward for continued to growth and accelerated growth.

China, I'll just give you a quick highlight that Sandy passed on to me a couple of days ago. Chinaplas was just completed, biggest plastic show -- I don't know in the world, but it certainly is a huge one in China. And we had significant interest by Chinese customers in products that had green elements associated with them. Whether it was fuel economy or reduced emissions or increased use of our products in power plants for abatement and control of emissions, a significant, significant interest.

And the good news on these things is these are products that are sold at a premium. They have some technology and patent protection associated with them. So again, great question and I think it's playing out perfectly for our Ticona business.

Okay, thank you.

Kevin McCarthy, Banc of America Securities.

Yes, good morning. Dave, you alluded to the escalation in costs among some of your acetic acid competitors that use technology based on ethylene and perhaps ethanol for that matter. Recently we've been seeing acetic prices around $650 or $660 per ton. Do you think that level is representative of a sustainable run rate going forward given the new energy environment?

Kevin, if you believe there's a structural shift in energy at the $100 so $120 per barrel range, that in all likelihood means that the new pricing level for acetyl is in the $600 to $650 range. We continue to evaluate it and look at it. I'm old enough to remember volatility in energy prices that is pretty steep and pretty significant, but certainly energy prices have remained high for a long period of time, they appear to be a structural shift in some sectors, some people are saying that and if you believe that, yes, acetyl pricing will stay high.

So $600 to $650 what is being baked into your earnings guidance?

For this year -- I'll answer to ways. For this year we baked in the higher pricing, the $600 to $650 pricing. As you recall, we had assumed that that was going to come down in the second half. We believe now that that's unlikely and that's baked into our guidance. However, if you look forward and think about 2010, the improvements that we're talking about assume pricing basically at a 2006 level, I think that's the right year, back when oil was more in the $70, $80 range.

And so on that basis, if you look at 2010, the $2.00 that we talk about, take that market impact out of it. Kevin, remember when we talk about asset pricing we're really talking only about the Asia region, it's a small part of what we do, but it tends to be representative of pricing power through the chain.

Right. And then finally, speaking of Asia, any color on BP's latest timeline for their perspective startup in Nanjing or Sipchem in Saudi Arabia? Thank you.

Well, I'll comment on those things that are public because there is a lot of speculation around there. The one thing that is public is Sipchem; they have gone back and asked for additional financing. I believe the number was $300 million to $400 million additional financing for their complex which puts the cost well nor of $1 million. And though there has not been any public announcement associated with it, we tend to believe that when there's an announcement that they need more cash that something is wrong and they're probably delayed in their startup.

Thanks very much.

Frank Mitsch, BB&T Capital Markets.

Good morning, gentlemen. I apologize, I jumped on the call a little bit late. Can you address the situation on the tax rate? I know that you had guided initially to 26% and that's where the $1.06 is on a 26% level. The income statement obviously had a higher tax rate. Do you expect your rate to materially decline later on in the year? Is this the net impact of the restructuring charges? Can you spend a moment or two on that?

Sure. As you said, the adjusted tax rate is 26% and the GAAP rate in the quarter is about 33%. For GAAP purposes there were some one-time accounting accruals that were required that won't continue throughout the year. So the GAAP rate will trend down throughout the year. When you look at our adjusted tax, we really do try to look at that once a year when we lay out our initial guidance, and unless there are major structural shifts in the business that would change our general tax position we don't update that throughout the year.

Cash taxes, as you can see, we've raised guidance on that a bit and that's principally related to the higher earnings and raising of our midpoint and higher end of our guidance range.

All right, so it's one-ff sort of items that impacted the quarter that drove it to 33% versus the 26%?

Yes, that's right.

Frank, this is Mark. The majority of those onetime items were specifically tax related. The other adjustments were pretty minor for the quarter and really reflected the restructuring activities that we add on. So it was really kind of accounting treatment or tax treatment of certain onetime items.

All right, great. And it's obviously a competitive advantage that you have, in terms of using cold as a feedstock, coal prices have ticked up of late. How is that impacting your position? How are the contracts structured there? Do you expect to see material inflation from that raw material?

Frank, the coal prices are ticking up as you say. The supplier that we use for CO buys coal on a long-term contract, long-term contracts. There are escalators in it, but the contract is structured in a way that there's not significant volatility that you may see in the spot market, but prices are trending up.

We think in the way that we assessed it and analyzed it that the advantage will continue and perhaps expand depending on what happens with other things, oil prices, methanol prices and natural gas prices in China.

All right, great. And Dave, you mentioned your outlook on the price of acetic over in China. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in North America and Europe in that regard?

Yes, Frank, I will. The North American pricing for acid -- there's not a big merchant acid market in North America, it tends to be more (inaudible) and some of the derivatives. And those prices tend to be driven off of formula contracts. So early in the quarter you had spikes in methanol prices and prices went up there and they've come back off again.

Relatively margined insensitive for us, more formula based. Europeans who follow the middle where Asia is a spot, North America (inaudible), Europe is somewhere in the middle, you set prices on a quarterly basis, some is supply/demand driven, some is driven by what they can bring parcels in from other regions of the world.

European pricing overall through the acetyl chain is stable to -- stabled up I'd say. Remember, the $600 to $650 pricing has been in the market now for several quarters, five, six quarters. And if energy stays up here there's high probability it's going to be sustainable.

Okay, great. Thank you.

P.J. Juvekar, Citi.

Did you guys talk about double-digit decline in Consumer Specialties, the volumes were down 11%. Can you just talk a little bit about that? And if you already answered that I apologize.

No, we haven't and thanks for the question. Consumer Specialties, Steve talked about where the volume decline there was shutting down a flake plant in Canada and having that flake produced in our joint ventures. It largely was produced in Canada for Canadian consumption -- for Chinese consumption and that plant is now up and operating in China, the Canadian plant is down (inaudible).

Industrial Specialties is two or three things. One, the biggest element of it is associated with the strategic steps we took last year to revitalize this business. We shut down two plants, we have another plant that we're rationalizing, a fourth plant that, as announced, will be shut down at the end of the year in the process of doing that we're shifting towards higher value added markets and products and you've seen the consequential benefit of that in the earnings of the business.

The other is kind of background noise. You had a tough comp against last year because you had a European environment with this German tax where there was strong demand and -- strong demand there and you're not having that this year, but those are the elements.

Okay. And Dave, you had argued that acetyls will take share away from acrylics because propylene chain is likely to go higher than ethylene chain. But now if I look at Asia acetyl prices are going up and acrylics are down and so maybe one could argue that you could lose shared to acrylics. Can you comment on that sort of shift between acetyl and acrylics?

Happy to. As we get down and look at a customer's decision-making in Asia -- I think both acrylics and vinyl systems are winning out against the styrene acrylate systems that are over there. The growth is very rapid and the performance benefits and frankly a lot of the environmental benefits, they don't market it over there as environmentally friendly, they market it as no odor, so you have no emissions.

So I think those benefits are moving both systems forward in a pretty positive way. As you go back to the 2003-2004 timeframe though, what has happened is that there's been more of a normalization of acrylic systems to vinyl systems. Going forward I think it's a jump ball on whether there is going to be a continued spread between the two systems but we're in a pretty favorable environment. We are seeing increased attention to our vinyl-based technologies.

Okay, thank you.

Mike Judd, Greenwich Consultants.

Good morning. And if you've already answered this I apologize. What are the dates or the approximate time frame for the startup of the Nanjing derivative units, please?

We have an acetic acid unit operating, we have an emulsion unit operating which is derivative and then we also have a Celstran or Advanced Engineered Materials unit operating. Over the course of the next three quarters we'll start up an anhydride unit, a VAM unit and a GUR unit which is high molecular weight polyethylene for Advanced Engineered Materials. And then some time roughly a year from now we're going to be starting up a compounding unit.

So on the VAM and the acetic anhydride, which I would assume are the largest volume production units, in terms of the derivatives anyway, over the next three quarters or is there something -- is it possible to say that it's a narrower time frame for those?

You'll see them come in over the next three quarters, Mike.

Okay, thanks.

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

Thank you. David, looking at your guidance, the next three quarters would average about $0.90 after you posted the $1.06 in Q1. What's going to take down earnings from Q1 vis-a-vis the rest of the three quarters of the year?

Thanks, Dave. If you move into the second quarter we do have to the annual dividend coming out of the acetate joint ventures. And that dividend will take earnings up in the second quarter relative to the first quarter. And then what you have is normal seasonality associated with the business. Historically we've seen kind of a 55 to 60% of the earnings in the first half of the year and 40, 45% of the earnings and in the second half of the year. A number of factors going into that and we've -- but as you look that it, those are the elements associated with what we're seeing.

So it sounds like $4.00 would not be out of reason for 2008?

Well, we've got our guidance and we're pretty comfortable with it.

Understood. In looking at your $5.00 2010, what are you assuming for the impact of Sipchem and BP on AI profitability in that year to get to your $5.00?

We're consistent with what we shared at investor day which has those units starting up within that time frame. And again, as we shared at investor day, those units starting up still keep market capacity utilization somewhere north of 90% -- 90%, 92% range.

And lastly, could you break out the impact of Nanjing on both sales and earnings or EBITDA in the quarter?

I don't even know I know that. You mean just the Nanjing complex in and of itself?

Yes.

We haven't broken it out, but you've got an acid unit that's running full rates. It's, if not the cheapest, one of the cheapest facilities that we have in the world. So we'll run that preferential, in fact all of our facilities are running full rates in the first quarter. We have an emulsion unit that was in the process of starting up, so the contribution there would be negligible. And I say the same thing for Celstran, probably negligible contribution there. On a revenue base coming out of that unit, roughly speaking we're 150 to 160 tons at $600 a ton, somewhere in that range -- $70 million, $75 million.

Thank you very much.

Gregg Goodnight, UBS.

Good morning, all. Great quarter. You talked about the cost push component of the acetyls, would you care to elaborate on the demand-side? For instance, what is the status of inventory levels for both VAM and acetic specifically in Asia? Have they recovered from last year's general force majeure that a lot of companies declared? Are inventories low? How's demand doing? What are operating rates looking like in the area?

Great question. We characterize inventory levels today as finally back to normal levels after two or three quarters of very low levels due to the not just our outage but outages through the system with our competitors and other producers. But we think inventory levels today are not extreme on either extreme. We think they're in pretty good position. This is an anecdote so let me share it with you and put it in context.

What we are seeing in our Advanced Engineered Materials business, our Ticona business, an interesting pattern where you have strong quarters --excuse me, strong month, strong month, weak month. It feels as though through the chain people have anticipated a potential downturn in the economy. This subprime thing has been with us now for more than two quarters and I think the manufacturers of the world have stepped back and our sense is they've managed inventory levels pretty aggressively anticipating -- not wanting to get caught in a slowdown and have to bleed off inventory.

At least the anecdotes that we're seeing in our Ticona business would suggest that our manufacturing customers are managing inventory levels more directly and a little more aggressively then perhaps they would in a more normal environment.

Interesting. The second question, would you comment on cellulose acetate pricing? I know you got an increase last year -- or the industry got an increase. Where do you see pricing going this year?

You know, Gregg, that's a business that tends to have price negotiations early in the year starting late in the year. So prices are set for the year and we've got -- what have we got as an increase there? About a 5% increase in pricing and so I think you can take that and assume in that range is where we got pricing on acetate.

That would be first quarter or then what was the timing of the increase?

I think it would be a pretty good marker -- the year-over-year comp would be a pretty good marker for the full year impact because the saving end of the price increases is pretty consistent year-over-year. So I think you'd probably see pricing in that range through the year.

Okay. Appreciate the feedback. Thank you.

Williams Matthews, Canyon Capital.

Gregg asked a question similar to kind of -- or maybe this is a follow-up to Gregg's question. Can you kind of talk about if we're at higher levels for acetic acid pricing due to higher levels of carbon feedstocks? What's the elasticity of demand? When do you start to see demand or volumes tail off because the prices become too high or is that not the case?

Bill, it's a good question. I'll answer it from two directions. We have seen pricing levels this high for the last five quarters. We have not seen any substantial deterioration in demand, nor have we heard frankly from our customer base that this is squeezing them out of business that they would have if it weren't for the price increase. So that's one way to answer it.

Another way of answering it is most of what happens in our chemical space is substitution in competing systems. So as you have higher prices for our products you see some competing materials, whether they be acrylate materials or styrenic systems as an example in coatings. The prices in those go up as well because hydrocarbon feedstocks for all systems are increasing and raise the relative price -- the absolute price, so on a relative base the price is not changed. Does that make sense?

Sure. Okay. Then the other question I had is kind of can you give us some historical context of the cyclicality for you guys? Obviously we're all aware of the supply coming on in the next couple years. When do you kind of see a cyclical peak going forward and the same kind of for your affiliate income because you substantially raised the guidance for that up 15% for the affiliate income. So how cyclical is that or is that something that we can model going forward at this new higher level and/or even increasing?

Let me take the last part of the question first. A lot of the increase that you're seeing in affiliate income is associated with the Middle Eastern methanol joint venture that we have. And remember, we've shared with you that as a company we are indifferent to increases or decreases in methanol in substance. We have a fairly balanced system where an increase in methanol may be good for our joint venture in the Middle East, may squeeze margins in our Advanced Engineered Materials space, but on average across the Company the results are the same.

So that's answering the question on affiliate income. Looking forward as a company though, I think the only way we can answer is to say that we continue to see very attractive industry fundamentals. We continue to see an industry that has high capacity utilization, an industry that has a good supply/demand balance out for the foreseeable future, an industry where there is a substantial amount of technology associated with manufacturing these products and molecules. The structure of the industry lends itself for some sustainability.

Okay. Let me ask maybe in a different way. The $5.00 guidance for 2010 is assuming Sipchem and BP bring their facilities on at the projected nameplate capacities?

Yes.

And then after that -- or those are the two biggest capacity additions in the foreseeable future, is that correct?

That's correct.

Okay. Thank you.

Charles Neivert, Morgan Stanley.

Good morning, guys. A quick question. You're bringing up the new China capacity, have you started trying to begin to lay off any of the other product that you normally move into China ahead of the Asian joint ventures, particularly where there's that sort of Ticona product overlap? Is that being sort of set up and dealt with now?

Yes. On the chemical side of it our plants that run full across the world because of just strong demand, there's been some guys in China who are out because of natural gas curtailments and other things. So we're running full across the world.

As far as Ticona goes, there is some shifting going on. In fact there are some really, really nice things going on in China with new applications. What we're finding in Ticona is that our Chinese customers, as we focus on our technology and bringing our technologies there, that we're able to accelerate their product development, we're able to get paid for value and we're able to gain customer loyalty.

So the model is working over there and as those manufacturing plants come up we'll shift towards Asia production. I think the one facility that's coming up later this year, a GUR facility, that's an outstanding example of preselling in the marketplace in order to fill a facility up.

Okay. And then a quick follow on. As far as the APL integration is concerned, is that basically complete at this point? Have you gotten all of the synergies you expected out of that? And then consequently is there anything going on on the continent now that APL is running with the other cellulose acetate operation there?

I'll go ahead and take the first part of the question on the synergies. We are at the full run rates now on the synergies. If you remember, we acquired that business for about $120 million and got $20 million of EBITDA with it. We put about $30 million of cost in and got $20 million more of synergies, which at the end of the day gives you a multiple of less than four. So we're at those run rates now and the business is performing very well.

As far as plans on the continent with some of our other facilities, as Steve said, the freight and logistics savings that we anticipated in the acquisition and the balancing of our manufacturing has occurred. So we don't anticipate any more associated with that, just the changes we'd have on the continent in APL.

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Hassan Ahmed, HSBC.

Good morning, guys. A quick question around Nanjing. We obviously know there's tremendous amounts of new methanol capacity coming online in China. Now that methanol capacity is primarily coal-based. So there are some who say that it is not high enough grade to be used in acetic acid production. So if you could just generally talk about some of these pulls and tugs as they relate to methanol pricing in Asia and going forward how we should think about the pricing environment for methanol and will this be a tailwind or a headwind for you guys out in Nanjing in particular?

Great question. I'm probably not the right guy to ask that question. As we think about methanol, we consumer more methanol than any guy out there I think -- number one or number two. But we balanced our system so that volatility in methanol pricing has limited impact on our income statement so we don't track it and follow it as closely.

I will tell you what we're seeing out there and that is that the quality of methanol coming out of China I'm going to say broadly, but I'm sure that there's a spectrum in what I say, but the quality of methanol is okay. We're using some China methanol in our acid production so there is acid we can find in China that meet our specs. I don't know that there's been a problem encountered by trying to find methanol with people who have methanol that wouldn't meet our specs.

Overall though I think coal into methanol is something that you have to look at very carefully. The Chinese government, as you're aware, has put a vacation, if you will, on new coal to methanol units. There are significant infrastructure issues, there are significant environmental issues associated with it.

And then I think the last thing I'd comment on is that we are seeing in China and other regions of the world an awful lot of methanol going into fuel, whether that goes in as DME or MTBE in regions of the world where you can use MTBE. There's an inherent fuel value to methanol and methanol derivatives and as you look at oil at $110 to $120 a barrel, the fuel value for that methanol goes up and you're probably looking at methanol prices that are going to be influenced by that long-term.

Super, Dave. Thanks so much.

And we are currently showing no more questions in queue. I would like to turn the call over for closing remarks.

Excellent. Thank you and thank everyone for your time and participation and continued interest in Celanese. If you have any further questions feel free to call. Thank you very much.