塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2006 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the first quarter 2006 Celanese Corporation earnings conference call. My name is [Shineque] and I will be your coordinator for today. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]

女士們、先生們，大家好！歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2006年第一季財報電話會議。我叫[Shineque]，今天將擔任您的會議協調員。 [操作員指示]

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mark Oberle. Please proceed.

現在我想把電話轉給馬克·奧伯爾先生。請繼續。

Thank you and welcome to the Celanese Corporation first quarter 2006 financial results conference call. My name is Mark Oberle, Vice President of Investor Relations and Public Affairs. On the call today are David Weidman, Chief Executive Officer, and John Gallagher, Chief Financial Officer.

感謝大家，歡迎參加塞拉尼斯公司2006年第一季財務業績電話會議。我是投資者關係與公共事務副總裁馬克‧奧伯勒 (Mark Oberle)。今天參加電話會議的還有執行長大衛‧魏德曼 (David Weidman) 和財務長約翰‧加拉格爾 (John Gallagher)。

The Celanese Corporation press release was distributed via business wire this afternoon and is posted on our website, celanese.com. During this call management may make forward-statements concerning, for example, Celanese Corporation's future objectives and results, which may be made under the Safe Harbor provisions for the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty in changes and circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economic, business, competitive, market, political and regulatory factors. More detailed information about these factors is contained in this afternoon's earnings release and in Celanese Corporation's corporation filing with the Security and Exchange Commission. Celanese Corporation undertakes no obligation to undertake publicly or revise any forward-looking statements.

塞拉尼斯公司的新聞稿已於今天下午透過商業電訊發布，並發佈於我們的網站 celanese.com。在本次電話會議上，管理階層可能會根據《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》的安全港條款做出前瞻性陳述，例如有關塞拉尼斯公司未來目標和業績的陳述。這些陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期，並受各種變化和環境因素的不確定性影響。由於經濟、商業、競爭、市場、政治和監管因素的變化，實際結果可能與這些預期有重大差異。有關這些因素的更多詳細信息，請參閱今天下午的收益報告以及塞拉尼斯公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的公司文件。塞拉尼斯公司不承擔公開或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Our first quarter earnings release references the performance measures net debt and adjusted earnings per share as non-U.S. GAAP measures. For the most directly comparable measures presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP and our financial statements, and for a reconciliation of our non-U.S. GAAP measures to U.S. GAAP figures, please see the Company's schedules to our earnings release, which will also be posted on our website.

我們第一季的業績報告中所引用的業績指標，包括淨負債和調整後每股收益，均為非美國公認會計準則 (GAAP)。如需查看根據美國公認會計準則 (GAAP) 和我們的財務報表呈現的最直接可比較指標，以及非美國公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標與美國公認會計準則 (GAAP) 資料的對帳表，請參閱公司績效報告附表，該附表也將發佈在我們的網站上。

Beginning in this quarter, we have also added a new non-GAAP measure, operating EBITDA. As we have met with investors over the past few quarters, it became clear that there was some confusion over our use of adjusted EBITDA, primarily because the adjustments used for this bank covenant measure were different than the adjustments we used in our adjusted EPS calculation. Going forward, we will use operating EBITDA on earnings calls. Operating EBITDA is defined as operating profit plus income from our equity and cost investments, so it's the same adjustment that we make for adjusted EPS, and finally adding back depreciation and amortization. By using the same adjustments for operating EBITDA as we do for adjusted EPS, we hope that this will be a clear and more transparent description of our Company's performance. The presentation and reconciliation of operating EBITDA can be found in Table 1 of our press release.

從本季開始，我們還增加了一項新的非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 指標—營運 EBITDA。過去幾季我們與投資者見面時，明顯發現我們對調整後 EBITDA 的使用存在一些困惑，主要是因為用於該銀行契約指標的調整與我們計算調整後每股收益時使用的調整不同。未來，我們將在財報電話會議上使用營運 EBITDA。營運 EBITDA 的定義是營業利潤加上股權投資收益和成本投資收益，因此它與我們對調整後每股收益所做的調整相同，最後加上折舊和攤提。透過營運 EBITDA 使用與調整後每股盈餘相同的調整，我們希望這能夠更清晰、更透明地描述我們公司的業績。營運 EBITDA 的列報和對帳表可在我們新聞稿的表 1 中找到。

This afternoon Dave Weidman will review the performance of the Company and John Gallagher will provide an overview of the business results for each segment and the financials. We'll have a question and answer period following the prepared remarks. Now I'd to turn the call over to Dave Weidman. Dave?

今天下午，戴夫·魏德曼將回顧公司業績，約翰·加拉格爾將概述各部門的業績和財務狀況。準備好的發言結束後，我們將進行問答環節。現在，我想把電話交給戴夫‧魏德曼。戴夫？

Mark, thank you very much, and welcome everyone to today's call. Celanese had a great start to the year, building on the momentum of 2005. John's going to review the details of the quarter, but at a high level, our results show the success of the Company's strategy and ability to execute. Over the last several quarters we have communicated our value creation strategy. For those of you who may be need to the Celanese story, let me briefly review the critical elements of our strategy.

馬克，非常感謝！歡迎各位參加今天的電話會議。塞拉尼斯今年開局良好，延續了2005年的好勢頭。約翰將回顧本季的具體情況，但總體而言，我們的業績展現了公司策略的成功和執行力。在過去幾個季度，我們一直在傳達我們的價值創造策略。對於那些可能需要了解塞拉尼斯故事的朋友們，我先簡單回顧一下我們策略的關鍵要素。

First, a hybrid business model with an integrated blend of both basic and downstream businesses that work together to mitigate cyclicality and provide stronger, more stable earnings. Second, in acetic acid our advantage is clear. Celanese technology places us at the low point of a very steep cost curve. Third, the acetyl [inaudible] with limited new capacity additions scheduled should benefit from a favorable supply-demand balance through at least 2008.

首先，我們採用混合業務模式，將基礎業務和下游業務整合在一起，共同降低週期性，帶來更強勁、更穩定的獲利。其次，在醋酸領域，我們的優勢顯而易見。塞拉尼斯的技術使我們處於成本曲線的低點。第三，乙醯[聽不清楚]產能計畫新增有限，預計至少在2008年之前，市場將保持良好的供需平衡。

Fourth, Celanese has incredibly strong global positions, with about 85% of our revenue generated by products which are either number one or number two in their space. Additionally, we are committed to grow our leading position to around 85% of our revenue over the next several years. Fifth, at our IPO a little bit over a year ago, we identified a number of Celanese-specific opportunities to create value that are solely within our control. In total, we estimated that there were over $400 million in purchasing, SG&A and integration opportunities that are in the process of being implemented and will be completed by the end of 2007. And lastly, Celanese has demonstrated its ability to combine all of these elements into a strong cash generation story over business cycle.

第四，塞拉尼斯在全球市場佔據著極其強大的地位，約85%的收入來自於其領域內排名前兩位的產品。此外，我們致力於在未來幾年內將領先地位提升至85%左右的收入。第五，在一年多前的首次公開發行（IPO）中，我們確定了一些塞拉尼斯獨有的價值創造機會，這些機會完全在我們掌控之中。我們估計，總計有超過4億美元的採購、銷售、一般及行政管理費用（SG&A）和整合機會正在實施中，並將於2007年底完成。最後，塞拉尼斯已經證明，其能夠將所有這些因素整合在一起，形成一個在整個商業週期中強勁的現金創造能力。

Let me put the first quarter results and business environment in context with many of these elements. Our hybrid business model is clearly working. Our downstream businesses were able to recover margins from the second half of 2005, as pricing actions took hold against a backdrop of stable raw material costs. In fact, our downstream businesses generated nearly 50% of our operating EBITDA for the quarter. We're particularly please with Ticona's results and we're starting to see a rebound in their key segments and successful penetration in new applications. As we look across the acetyl's industry, we're encouraged with both the short-term and long-term development. Now, as you'll recall, 2005 started off very strong for our chemicals business, with tight markets in the first half of the year on soft demand. During the second half, competitive capacity came into the market and pricing margins began to decrease accordingly. As we can view the first quarter of 2006, this new capacity seems to have been feathered into the market. Pricing has not declined significantly, and impact has been more moderate than we expected.

讓我將第一季的業績和業務環境與許多因素結合起來分析。我們的混合業務模式顯然行之有效。由於原料成本穩定，價格調整措施奏效，我們的下游業務從2005年下半年起恢復了利潤率。事實上，下游業務貢獻了本季近50%的營運息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）。我們對泰科納的業績尤其滿意，我們開始看到其關鍵細分市場的反彈，並成功滲透到新的應用領域。縱觀整個乙醯基產業，我們對短期和長期發展都感到鼓舞。各位應該還記得，2005年我們的化學品業務開局非常強勁，上半年市場需求疲軟，供應緊張。下半年，一些競爭性產能進入市場，價格利潤率也隨之下降。回顧2006年第一季，這些新增產能似乎已經逐漸融入市場。價格並未大幅下降，其影響也比我們預期的要溫和。

Looking ahead to 2007 and 2008, the recently announced delays of some of our competitor's capacity additions validate our December projections and support our view of a continued favorable supply picture through at least 2008. Celanese is distinctively global and continues to build on our profitable presence in high-growth regions. I'd like to take a moment to discuss our view of the global landscape for our products.

展望2007年和2008年，我們最近宣布推遲部分競爭對手的產能擴張，這證實了我們12月份的預測，並支持了我們對至少在2008年全年供應情況持續向好的看法。塞拉尼斯是一家獨具特色的全球性公司，並將繼續鞏固我們在高成長地區的獲利能力。我想花點時間談談我們對我們產品全球格局的看法。

First, let's talk about Asia, the cornerstone of our growth strategy. This high growth region provided approximately 20% of our consolidated revenue in 2005, and we're seeing continued growth and demand for our products there. Additionally, our Celanese affiliates, including Polyplastics and our acetate China Ventures played an integral role in capturing future growth in Asia. We will be updating our equity and cost investment white paper shortly from our website. But from our recent filings, you see that in 2005 sales and earnings from our equity investments increased 6% and 14% respectively, driven by very strong volume growth

首先，我們來談談亞洲，這是我們成長策略的基石。 2005年，這個高成長地區貢獻了我們約20%的合併收入，我們看到該地區對我們產品的需求持續成長。此外，包括寶理塑膠和醋酸乙烯中國投資基金在內的塞拉尼斯關聯公司在掌握亞洲未來成長方面發揮了不可或缺的作用。我們很快就會在網站上更新我們的股權和成本投資白皮書。從我們最近的文件中可以看到，在強勁的銷售成長的推動下，2005年我們的股權投資銷售額和收益分別成長了6%和14%。

In Europe, we've been squeezed by the relative strength of the economy, particularly in Ticona and our downstream businesses. With 40% of our revenue coming from this region, our position in Europe is strong. Now finally in North America, where we also generate 40% of our revenue, economic indicators have been mixed. Equity markets are showing strength, but concerns exist with high oil prices and rising interest rates. Our demand for the first quarter of 2006 was good, and we will continue to monitor this economic environment going forward. Celanese is truly a global chemical Company, and we are not dependent on any one economy for successful business performance. Our global footprint allows us to capture growth opportunities in expanding regions to create value for our shareholders.

在歐洲，我們受到經濟相對強勁的擠壓，尤其是在泰科納和我們的下游業務方面。由於我們40%的營收來自該地區，我們在歐洲的地位十分穩固。現在，在北美，我們40%的營收也來自該地區，但經濟指標卻好壞參半。股市表現強勁，但高油價和利率上升的擔憂仍然存在。我們2006年第一季的需求良好，未來我們將持續關注這個經濟環境。塞拉尼斯是一家真正的全球性化工公司，我們的成功經營績效並不依賴任何一個經濟體。我們的全球佈局使我們能夠在不斷擴張的地區抓住成長機會，為股東創造價值。

Now I would like to turn the call over to John Gallagher, who will give us more details on our first quarter results and our financial outlook. John?

現在我想把電話轉給約翰·加拉格爾，他將向我們提供有關我們第一季業績和財務前景的更多細節。約翰？

Okay, thanks, Dave. Before we get to Q&A, I'd like to talk a little bit more detail about the first quarter results, give you some views on the outlook for the second quarter and the rest of the year. Net sales in the first quarter increased to $1.65 billion. As reflected in Table 2, pricing increased in all business except Performance Products, while increased volume and the inclusion of sales from the Acetex acquisition more than offset the negative currency impacts of approximately 3%. Operating profit increased to $197 million, up 26% over last year due to continued strong business performance, lower special charges and cost improvements. Our volume and price increases helped to offset significant increases in raw materials year-over-year. Net earnings increased to $117 million from a loss of $10 million, primarily due to lower interest expense, as last year's results included $102 million associated with the IPO and related refinancing. Net earnings also benefited from the increased ownership of Celanese AG shares.

好的，謝謝，戴夫。在進入問答環節之前，我想更詳細地談談第一季的業績，並談談對第二季及今年剩餘時間前景的一些看法。第一季淨銷售額增至16.5億美元。如表2所示，除性能產品外，所有業務的定價均有所上漲，而銷售成長以及納入Acetex收購帶來的銷售額，足以抵銷約3%的負面匯率影響。由於業務表現持續強勁、特殊費用降低以及成本改進，營業利潤增至1.97億美元，較去年增長26%。銷售和價格的上漲有助於抵銷原物料價格較去年同期大幅上漲的影響。淨利潤由虧損1000萬美元增至1.17億美元，這主要得益於利息支出的減少，因為去年的業績中包含了與IPO及相關再融資相關的1.02億美元利息支出。淨利潤也受惠於塞拉尼斯股份公司股份持有量的增加。

Adjusted EPS was $0.72 for the quarter, higher than last year's results of $0.62 and our best quarterly performance since our IPO. In 2006, both adjusted EPS and operating EBITDA included charges of $10 million of expenses associated with the squeeze-out of the remaining shares of Celanese AG -- or we excluded those amounts, I should say. Our depreciation and amortization for the quarter was $70 million. This run rate is lower than the annual figure of between $300 and $330 million we guided to previously. Our previous guidance included a preliminary estimate for the step-up in acid valuations associated with the Acetex acquisition. The revised estimate of this purchase accounting, as well as an updated full year depreciation and amortization forecast, results in new guidance of between $275 to $300 million for 2006. Offsetting this lower depreciation was an increase in our 2006 tax rate to 28%, higher than the range of between 18% and 22% that we previously guided to. The primary drivers of this increased rate is a noncash impact related to income earned in the U.S., combined with the release evaluation allowances which don't flow back through the income statement but are, instead, put against goodwill.

本季調整後每股收益為0.72美元，高於去年同期的0.62美元，創下了我們IPO以來的最佳季度業績。 2006年，調整後每股盈餘和營運息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）均計入了與塞拉尼斯股份公司剩餘股份擠出相關的1000萬美元費用——或者說，我們剔除了這些費用。本季的折舊和攤提為7000萬美元。這項營運率低於我們先前預期的3億至3.3億美元的年度預期。我們先前的預期包含了與收購Acetex相關的酸估值上漲的初步估計。此次收購會計估計值的修訂，以及更新的全年折舊和攤銷預測，導致2006年新的指導值介於2.75億美元至3億美元之間。抵銷這項折舊減少的是，我們將2006年的稅率上調至28%，高於我們先前指引的18%至22%的範圍。稅率上調的主要原因是與美國境內所得收入相關的非現金影響，以及釋放評估準備金（這些準備金不會透過損益表回流，而是用於抵銷商譽）。

Our book taxes -- and again, not our cash taxes -- will continue to be a bit volatile due to the earnings profile in certain tax jurisdictions combined with the accounting treatment of these valuation allowances. Our cash taxes will continue to be lower than our tax expense due to substantial net operating loses, and we continue to expect cash taxes to between -- to be between $60 and $100 million per year, or for this year, as we forecasted back in December. When you compare the actual results for the quarter with the mid-point of our tax and depreciation guidance, the tax rate change was a negative $0.08 per share, partially offset by the lower depreciation and amortization, which benefited the quarter approximately $0.05 per share.

我們的帳面稅額（再次強調，不是現金稅額）將繼續略有波動，這主要受某些稅收管轄區的盈利狀況以及這些估值準備金的會計處理方式的影響。由於巨額淨營運虧損，我們的現金稅額將繼續低於稅金支出。我們預計，今年的現金稅額將維持在每年6,000萬至1億美元之間，這與我們去年12月的預測一致。將本季的實際業績與我們稅額和折舊預期的中位數進行比較，稅率變化為每股負0.08美元，但折舊和攤銷費用的降低部分抵消了這一影響，這部分收益使本季每股收益約0.05美元。

Let's now review the performance of our businesses, beginning with Chemical Products. Revenue was approximately $1.2 billion, up 12% over last year, driven by pricing improvements of 8% on strong demand and the inclusion of sales resulting from the acquisition of Acetex [Invenamule] of 8%. Operating EBITDA was $208 million, down from last yea's record levels of $226 million. Our Basic Chemical business of acetic acid and vinyl acetate continue to produce solid results. We were able to increase prices to partially offset increases in raw materials but as we expected, we did see lower EBITDA compared to last year. The market reacted very well to the capacity outage during the end of 2005, as Dave said earlier, and demand continues to be strong.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們各業務的業績，首先從化學產品開始。營收約12億美元，較去年成長12%，這得益於強勁需求帶來的8%的價格調整，以及納入了收購Acetex [Invenamule]帶來的8%的銷售額。營運息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）為2.08億美元，低於去年創紀錄的2.26億美元。我們的基礎化工業務——醋酸和醋酸乙烯酯——繼續保持穩健的表現。我們透過提高價格來部分抵消原物料價格上漲的影響，但正如我們預期的那樣，EBITDA確實低於去年。正如Dave之前所說，市場對2005年底的產能中斷反應良好，需求持續強勁。

Our downstream emulsions and PVUH business experienced margin recovery, with higher volumes and pricing benefiting results. Ticona also had a good quarter, as the business continued to increase its penetration of key customer segments and product applications. Ticona's net sales were down from $239 million to $231 million due to unfavorable top-line currency effects of 5% and the exit of the COC business. Volumes were up for the business and were partially -- and were particularly good in Europe. Operating EBITDA improved 3% to $69 million on increased volumes and reduced costs. Acetate Products results show the success of the revitalization efforts. Net sales were relatively flat at $167 million, as we stopped shipping tow to our China Ventures now that the expansions are online. Increased prices offset the lower sales volume. In this stable business, the real impact of the revitalization is in operating EBITDA, where acetate delivered $30 million, a 50% increase year-over-year. They are on track to deliver the expected operating EBITDA in the range of $130 to $160 million, inclusive of dividends, by 2008, when the China expansions are complete.

我們的下游乳液和PVUH業務利潤率回升，銷售和定價的提升令業績受益。泰科納本季業績也表現良好，該業務持續提升其在關鍵客戶細分市場和產品應用領域的滲透率。由於5%的不利匯率影響以及COC業務的退出，泰科納的淨銷售額從2.39億美元降至2.31億美元。該業務的銷量有所增長，且部分增長，尤其是在歐洲地區。由於銷售成長和成本降低，營運EBITDA成長了3%，達到6,900萬美元。醋酸鹽產品業務的業績反映了業務重振的成效。淨銷售額相對持平於1.67億美元，因為在擴建工程啟動後，我們停止向中國合資公司運送拖纜。價格上漲抵消了銷量的下降。在這個穩定的業務中，業務重振的真正影響體現在營運EBITDA上，醋酸鹽產品業務實現了3000萬美元的EBITDA，年增50%。到 2008 年中國業務擴張完成後，他們預計將實現 130 至 1.6 億美元的預期營業 EBITDA（包括股息）。

Performance Products also had great quarter. Net sales were up as volumes both Sunett® sweetener and Sorbates increased. Pricing for Sorbates increased, while Sunett® pricing declined as planned. The volume growth for Sunett® is the story here. The demand for this sweetener, particularly in the beverage and confectionary industries has been very strong. Overall volume increased 23% versus the first quarter of last year and operating EBITDA increased 31% to $21 million for the quarter.

性能產品部門本季也表現出色。由於Sunett®甜味劑和山梨酸鹽的銷售量均有所成長，淨銷售額也隨之成長。山梨酸鹽的價格上漲，而Sunett®的價格則按計劃下降。 Sunett®銷量的成長是本季的亮點。這種甜味劑的需求非常強勁，尤其是在飲料和糖果行業。本季總銷量較去年第一季成長了23%，營業息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）成長了31%，達到2,100萬美元。

Now let's spend a moment on the Company's capitalization. Net debt increased by $159 million to $3.2 billion. A strong underlying performance in our operating business was offset by increases in working capital, primarily related to the timing in turnarounds and the seasonality of our business, capital spending, an increase in restricted cash and the timing of reserve spending. Celanese still expects to meet 2006 working capital targets and to generate cash during the remainder of 2006 at a rate similar to 2005.

現在我們來談談公司的資本化。淨債務增加了1.59億美元，達到32億美元。我們營運業務的強勁基本業績被營運資本的增加所抵消，這主要與公司扭虧為盈的時機、業務的季節性、資本支出、限制性現金的增加以及儲備金支出的時機有關。塞拉尼斯仍預計2006年營運資本目標將得以實現，並在2006年剩餘時間內以與2005年類似的速度產生現金。

Now let's talk about the second quarter outlook. As we said in the press release, we expect adjusted earning per share in the second quarter of 2006 to be similar to the first quarter of 2006 results. Now let me summarize our full year outlook. When you think about Chemical Products, we expect it to continue to produce strong results, as industry dynamics remain favorable, as Dave said earlier. Ticona should continue to increase volumes through penetration of key customer segments and improved global demand for its products. Acetate Products should see the benefits of its revitalization efforts continue, similar to what we saw in the first quarter. We expect dividends, as I've mentioned in the past, from the China Ventures to be paid in the second quarter, and to be between 415 and $20 million. Performance Products should continue to benefit from increased Sunett® volumes, and we expect pricing to continue to decline as the segment moves to specialty chemical-like performance.

現在我們來談談第二季的展望。正如我們在新聞稿中所說，我們預計2006年第二季的調整後每股盈餘將與2006年第一季的業績持平。現在，讓我來總結一下我們的全年展望。說到化學產品業務，正如Dave之前所說，由於行業動態依然良好，我們預計它將繼續取得強勁的業績。泰科納將透過滲透關鍵客戶群和全球對其產品需求的提升來持續提升產量。醋酸鹽產品業務應該會繼續受益於其振興計劃，與我們在第一季看到的類似。正如我之前提到的，我們預計中國合資企業的股息將在第二季支付，金額在4.15億美元至2,000萬美元之間。性能產品業務應該會繼續受益於Sunett®產量的成長，我們預計隨著該業務朝著特種化學品般的性能邁進，其價格將繼續下降。

So we continue to feel positive about the Company's outlook. We are reaffirming our adjusted EPS guidance range of between $2.50 a share and $2.90 a share, despite the increase in our outlook for income taxes. As a reminder, this range -- guidance range assumes a tax rate of 28% for the year, with cash taxes continuing to be between $60 and $100 million. Depreciation and amortization will be lower, as I previously mentioned, between $275 and $300 million, but this does not offset the negative impact of the tax change. The net impact of both of these adjustments is approximately $0.15 per share of head wind. The remaining items that we generally provide guidance on remain unchanged. Cash interest expense should be between $230 and $250 million for the year. Capital expenditures are expected to be closer to $250 million, which is the high end of our range of the $200 to $250. And lastly, we would expect around 171.5 million diluted shares outstanding for the purposes of calculating the EPS.

因此，我們繼續對公司的前景持樂觀態度。儘管我們上調了所得稅預期，但我們仍重申調整後每股盈餘指引區間在2.50美元至2.90美元之間。需要提醒的是，指引區間假設本年度稅率為28%，現金稅額仍在6,000萬美元至1億美元之間。正如我之前提到的，折舊和攤銷費用將降低，在2.75億美元至3億美元之間，但這並不能抵消稅改帶來的負面影響。這兩項調整的淨影響約為每股0.15美元。我們通常提供指引的其餘項目保持不變。本年度現金利息支出應在2.3億美元至2.5億美元之間。預計資本支出將接近2.5億美元，這是我們2億美元至2.5億美元區間的上限。最後，為了計算每股盈餘，我們預期流通在外的稀釋股份約為 1.715 億股。

So with that, let's open it up for Q&A.

那麼，讓我們開始問答環節。

[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]

[操作員指示]

Great, as we wait for the questions to queue up, just keep in mind, if you could keep your questions to one question and a follow-up, and if you have further questions, please get back in the queue.

太好了，當我們等待問題排隊時，請記住，如果您可以將問題保留為一個問題和一個後續問題，並且如果您還有其他問題，請回到隊列中。

The first question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

第一個問題來自德意志銀行的David Begleiter。請繼續。

Thank you. Hey, David, Q2, is that normally a seasonally strong a quarter? I would have expected earnings to be have -- to be up sequentially versus Q1. Why are they not going to be up versus Q1?

謝謝。嘿，David，第二季通常是季節性強勁的季度嗎？我原本預計獲利會比第一季季增。為什麼第二季的獲利沒有比第一季成長？

David, we -- Q1 was a very good quarter for us. We saw, as indicated before, capacity coming into Asia that had a stronger effect then we had anticipated. Our Acetate business was strong, our Nutrinova business was strong and Ticona had a relatively strong quarter, as well. Looking into second quarter, the view is that the businesses are going to continue to be strong and underlying performance will continue in that fashion. That's our -- that's our view. We may be a little bit -- taking a look at the business, we probably were a little surprised in the first quarter with the strength on it, but it's going to be up. I remind you that, based on where we were last year, we had about a $0.53 quarter last year, so year-over-year, we're going to be up.

大衛，第一季對我們來說表現非常好。如同先前所提到的，我們看到亞洲產能的增加，其效應超出了我們的預期。我們的醋酸鹽業務表現強勁，Nutrinova 業務表現強勁，Ticona 本季的表現也相對強勁。展望第二季度，我們認為這些業務將繼續保持強勁，基本業績也將保持這種勢頭。這是我們的看法。縱觀我們的業務，我們可能對第一季的強勁表現感到有些意外，但未來仍會繼續成長。我提醒大家，基於去年的水平，我們去年的季度營收約為 0.53 美元，因此同比來看，我們的營收將會成長。

And, David, just on the guidance itself to low end, what would it take to achieve the low end of the guidance, given the very strong Q1?

並且，大衛，僅就指導本身的低端而言，考慮到非常強勁的第一季業績，需要做些什麼才能達到指導的低端？

The full-year guidance, Dave?

全年指導意見呢，戴夫？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, I think for us the thing we constantly look at are the fundamentals. The fundamentals on new capacity additions are great. Delays in some of the acetic acid' capacity coming in, vinyl acetate not coming up, those fundamentals are strong. The thing that we would look at would be demand dropping off. That's the biggest risk for the year that we look at, is the demand side of the equation. As I indicated, though, first quarter was a strong demand quarter for us. Asia was strong, Europe was strong, North America was good demand, as well. And as we look at Ticona, which probably is our most forward-leaning business, we can have the most visibility, Europe continues to be very strong and Asia is strong. Lyndon just reported back a visit to Detroit and indicated there that inventory levels through the chain seemed to be in very, very good shape and so, we remain cautious but optimistic about North America.

是的，我認為我們始終關注的是基本面。新增產能的基本面表現良好。部分醋酸產能投產延遲，醋酸乙烯產能停滯，這些基本面表現強勁。我們關注的是需求下降。這是我們今年關注的最大風險，也就是需求方面。正如我之前提到的，第一季對我們來說是一個需求強勁的季度。亞洲、歐洲和北美的需求都很好。至於泰科納，這可能是我們最具前瞻性的業務，我們可以獲得最大的洞察，歐洲和亞洲的市場表現仍然強勁。林登剛剛報告了底特律之行，並表示整個供應鏈的庫存水準似乎都處於非常非常好的狀態，因此，我們對北美市場保持謹慎但樂觀的態度。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Banc of America Securities. Please proceed.

您的下一個問題來自美銀證券的Kevin McCarthy。請繼續。

Good afternoon, gentleman. Could you discuss the trends that you saw in April in your Acetyl businesses, maybe from a volume and margin perspective versus the first quarter average?

先生，下午好。您能否談談四月份乙醯業務的趨勢，例如從銷售和利潤率的角度，與第一季的平均值相比如何？

Yes. I'd be happy to and maybe give you a view of how things are looking now. As you know,, April was a month with a lot of weekends, so it was a short shipment month. If we look at it on a business-day basis, April was okay, a little bit of weakness in week two or three. What we've seen coming into the last part of April and early May, is -- in North America, in particular, strength in the North American market, and it seems like that's on an uptick or relatively strong position. Pricing in China, coming out of the vacation week, last week, is up. We're seeing parcels of moving at higher prices. $25, $50 a ton on higher parcels over there. The European view has been strong. I think at the end of the fourth -- excuse me, the end of the first quarter, Kevin -- excuse me, the end of April -- get this right yet -- the end of April, we actually had some shipments that we had to push into future weeks because we couldn't get shipping vessels or containers or trucks in Europe. So overall, it's kind of a mixed picture around the world. Europe is strong, Asia appears to be strong and pricing moving up. A little bit of hiccup in April during second, third weeks, but it seems to be righting itself in North America.

是的。我很樂意，或許可以介紹目前的狀況。如你所知，四月週末較多，所以出貨量較短。如果以工作日計算，四月還算可以，只是第二、三週略有疲軟。我們看到，進入四月底和五月初，尤其是在北美市場，北美市場表現強勁，而且似乎呈現上升趨勢或相對強勁。上週，中國假期結束後，價格上漲。我們看到運輸包裹的價格上漲，那裡高價包裹的價格達到每噸25到50美元。歐洲市場的情況一直很強勁。我想在第四季末——不好意思，是第一季末，凱文——不好意思，是四月底——請你理解——四月底，我們實際上有一些貨物不得不推遲到未來幾週，因為我們在歐洲找不到船、貨櫃或卡車。整體而言，全球市場狀況好壞參半。歐洲表現強勁，亞洲似乎也表現強勁，價格也在上漲。 4月第二、三週出現了一些波動，但北美市場似乎正在好轉。

Okay, great. And then a broader question, if I may. Stacking up acrylics versus vinyls, Dave, if acrylics are coming down cyclically here, how would you characterize volume potential substitution or flow of volume into acrylics from vinyls in your portfolio? Did you see that as a meaningful impact for the balance of this year, or are you insulated against that?

好的，太好了。接下來，如果可以的話，我問一個比較廣泛的問題。戴夫，關於丙烯酸酯和乙烯基的比較，如果丙烯酸酯的價格出現週期性下跌，您如何描述投資組合中從乙烯基轉向丙烯酸酯的潛在替代量或流入量？您認為這會對今年的剩餘時間產生重大影響嗎？還是說您不會受到影響？

We're pretty insulated against it. A lot of the trends are based more on product and development than they are on product substitution within a particular year. So what we have seen, particularly in Europe, is more and more product substitution against acrylics. We see those in product formulations. Going forward, we don't believe that it will have any -- it's more of a long-term trend rather than a short-term trend, Kevin, is how I would phrase it. We do see the shift, continuing, though, and we see continued very positive interest in vinyls versus acrylics.

我們對此相當敏感。許多趨勢更多是基於產品和開發，而非特定年份的產品替代。因此，我們看到，尤其是在歐洲，越來越多的產品取代了丙烯酸樹脂。我們在產品配方中也看到了這一點。展望未來，我們認為這不會有任何改變——凱文，我是這樣說的，這更像是一種長期趨勢，而不是短期趨勢。不過，我們確實看到了這種轉變的持續，而且我們看到人們對乙烯基樹脂而非丙烯酸樹脂的興趣持續非常濃厚。

Okay, thanks. I'll get back in queue.

好的，謝謝。我這就回去排隊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Edlain Rodriguez with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的Edlain Rodriguez。請繼續。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Hello, Ed.

你好，艾德。

Quick -- when you're looking at Chemicals products, it appears you're losing some volume at the expense of price? Are you foregoing volume to focus margin expansion, or is there something else going on there?

快來看看－你們的化工產品業務，似乎因為價格下跌而損失了一些銷售量？你們是為了提高利潤率而犧牲了銷量，還是有其他原因？

It's a good question. Our Chemical business -- our plants have been running full for the last five or six quarters and our volume growth really is not what's driving the business now. It's margin expansion. We are being more selective with customers, obviously. As we look forward, though, we see the underlying markets increase. We see good growth in the underlying markets. And I'll remind you that our new capacity comes on, basically, a year from now, so I would expect over the next several quarters Celanese' performance will be driven more by margins than by volume. But as our new plant comes up, we will pick up that growth in the market and we'll see volume growth again.

這個問題問得好。我們的化工業務－過去五、六個季度，我們的工廠一直滿載運轉，銷售成長其實並非目前業務的驅動力，利潤率的提升才是關鍵。顯然，我們對客戶的要求正在變得更加嚴格。不過，展望未來，我們看到基礎市場正在成長，成長動能良好。需要提醒大家的是，我們的新產能基本上要一年後才能投產，因此我預計未來幾個季度，塞拉尼斯的業績將更多地由利潤率而非銷量驅動。但隨著新廠的投產，我們將加快市場成長，銷售量也將再次成長。

Okay.

好的。

Let me -- while I'm on volume growth, let me comment a little bit about Ticona. In the fourth quarter, we saw 7% volume growth in Ticona, very good growth. In the first quarter, the numbers that you're seeing are a somewhat muted by one-time effects last year. But the underlying growth in Ticona was very strong and we'd expect through the next several quarters to see Ticona growth in the two to three times GDP range. It seems to be picking up.

既然談到銷售成長，我想先簡單談談泰科納 (Ticona)。第四季度，泰科納的銷量成長了7%，成長動能非常好。第一季度，受去年一次性因素的影響，您看到的數據略有減弱。但泰科納的基本成長非常強勁，我們預計未來幾個季度，泰科納的成長將達到GDP的兩到三倍。看來，它正在回暖。

Okay. And quick follow-up on dividends. The dividends from cost investments were down significantly from 4Q. Is this [inaudible] seasonality, or is this something else that's impacting that?

好的。關於股息，我們來快速跟進。成本投資的股利較第四季大幅下降。這是季節性因素嗎？還是其他因素造成了影響？

I believe we disclosed a year ago that the dividends in the first quarter of 2005 had some timing difference, which was catchup, meaning some 2004 dividends were not paid until the first quarter of 2005. So I think we would say that the dividends from the cost investment are unusually high in the first quarter; however, I feel it's worthy to mention, as I said in my remarks, that keep in mind now that with the Acetate China expansion, which is a cost investment, we will be getting cost dividends, as I mentioned the between $15 and $20 million in the second quarter. So again, just keep that in mind in mind -- or $15, $20 million probably for the full year, likely in the second quarter.

我記得我們一年前就披露過，2005年第一季的股息存在一些時間差異，也就是追趕性股息，也就是說，2004年的部分股息直到2005年第一季才支付。所以，我認為第一季的成本投資股息異常高；不過，正如我在發言中所說，值得一提的是，隨著醋酸纖維中國工廠的擴張，這筆成本投資將帶來成本股息，正如我之前提到的，第二季度的股息將在1500萬至2000萬美元之間。所以，再次強調，請記住這一點——或者說，全年可能達到1500萬至2000萬美元，很可能在第二季。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of William Young with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的William Young。請繼續。

Good afternoon, Dave.

下午好，戴夫。

Hello, Bill.

你好，比爾。

Before I start, I didn't quite understand that last thing, the $15 to $20 million dividend, that's second quarter or full year, I didn't catch what you said?

在我開始之前，我不太明白最後一件事，1500萬到2000萬美元的股息，那是第二季度還是全年，我不明白你說什麼？

It's a one-time payment.

這是一次性付款。

Okay.

好的。

All right, so it's going to come in one payment from the business. We -- I would say for the full year and the quarter is the same. We said in our remarks we expect it to come in in the second quarter, so I would assume that it does come in in the second quarter. But, again, if there's timing issues, it could slip. But right now I would plan on it for the second quarter.

好的，所以這筆款項將一次性從公司支付。我想說，全年和季度的款項是一樣的。我們在發言中提到，我們預計它會在第二季到賬，所以我假設它確實會在第二季到達。但是，如果時間安排有問題，它可能會推遲到帳。但目前我計劃在第二季到帳。

Okay, great. Now, my main question is, you said you weren't covering all your materials, [inaudible] and energy costs on the Chemical side. Can you give us a little more detail on that, just what's happening and the dynamics, and what makes you think you're going to be able to make progress on that in the second and third quarter?

好的，太好了。現在我的主要問題是，您之前說過，在化學方面，您沒有涵蓋所有的材料、[聽不清楚]和能源成本。您能否就此提供更多細節，例如目前的情況和動態，以及您認為在第二季和第三季能夠取得進展的原因是什麼？

Good question, Bill, let me answer it this way. On a year-over-year basis, we had margin contraction. That was due largely to more capacity in the market this year compared to last year. Sequentially -- sequentially, for Chemicals, we had -- margins were flat. Our downstream businesses had margin expansion. Some of our basic businesses had modest margin contraction. Going forward, you know, capacity utilization will remain tight. Limited new capacity coming in, and so that market equation will stabilize or improve.

問得好，比爾，我這樣回答吧。與去年同期相比，我們的利潤率有所下降。這主要是因為今年的市場產能比去年增加。化工業務的利潤率環比持平。我們的下游業務利潤率有所成長。一些基礎業務的利潤率略有下降。展望未來，產能利用率將維持低檔。新增產能有限，因此市場平衡將趨於穩定或改善。

And you don't think preselling some of the new capacity is going to make things a little more challenging?

您不認為預售部分新產能會讓事情變得更具挑戰性嗎？

Well, you know, we really were concerned about that. Most of this new capacity came in between May of last year and December of last year. And we watched the market real carefully, we talked about it, as you know, on the calls. Really, there is no new capacity coming in between now and 2007, when our new facility comes in. The effect on the market has been more moderate than we might have expected. We were pleased with what has happened, and going forward until this new capacity comes, it [expletive] and we should be able to manage that well.

嗯，你知道，我們確實對此感到擔憂。這些新增產能大多是去年5月到12月之間投產的。我們非常密切地關注著市場，正如你所知，我們在電話會議上也討論過這個問題。實際上，從現在到2007年我們的新工廠投產之前，沒有新增產能投入。這對市場的影響比我們預期的要溫和。我們對目前的情況感到滿意，而且在新產能投入之前，我們應該能夠妥善應對。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Hey, thanks, Bill.

嘿，謝謝，比爾。

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Miller with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的Christopher Miller。請繼續。

Good afternoon. Just wanted to follow up a little bit on Ticona. Obviously, sounds like your pretty bullish on the growth plus [TNT]. Drill down a little bit further in terms of what's driving that growth?

午安.我只是想跟進一下Ticona的情況。顯然，聽起來您對TNT的成長非常樂觀。您能進一步深入探討一下推動這項成長的因素嗎？

Yes. There's a lot of secular trends. Ticona makes high-performance products that have a whole host of applications; automotive applications, industrial applications, consumer applications. It's a very highly-engineered product, so it's very high value and use. If you just take automotive, automotive itself is a relatively stable or stagnant market, not a lot of global growth. But our penetration per automobile is going up year over year over year. We're somewhere around ten, 11 pounds per car. We're targeting, by the end of the decade, 14, 15 pounds per car. And you think of the new applications we're going into, more hybrid engines. Diesel [inaudible] of Europe puts a lot of our products on car -- cars. Braking systems, electronic applications in automobiles, that's what drives the Ticona's growth and the business model is built in a way that we put a lot of effort into front end sales, marketing, development. We're working very closely with not only the OEMs but the tier 1's, tier 2's for model year 2009, 2010. Track that very closely, track new models and look at the pounds on every unit to come out, and we continue to increase that and grow that.

是的，有很多長期趨勢。泰科納生產的高性能產品應用廣泛，涵蓋汽車、工業和消費性電子等許多領域。這些產品工程化程度極高，因此價值和用途都非常高。就汽車產業而言，汽車市場本身相對穩定，或者說停滯不前，全球成長速度並不快。但我們在每輛汽車上的滲透率卻逐年上升。目前，我們每輛車的碳足跡大約在10到11磅之間。我們的目標是，到2020年，每輛車的碳足跡達到14到15磅。想想我們正在涉足的新應用領域，例如混合動力引擎。歐洲的柴油引擎[聽不清楚]在汽車上應用了我們的許多產品。煞車系統、汽車電子應用，這些正是泰科納發展的動力。我們的商業模式建立在我們在前端銷售、行銷和開發方面投入大量精力的基礎上。我們不僅與 OEM 廠商密切合作，還與一級供應商、二級供應商就 2009 和 2010 年車型展開合作。密切跟踪，跟踪新車型，關注每款車型的重量，我們將繼續增加和發展這一目標。

Okay.

好的。

That's just an example and then you can take it to different markets, whether it be medical or consumer electronics market. That same business model translates across several different market areas.

這只是一個例子，你可以把它推廣到不同的市場，無論是醫療市場還是消費性電子市場。相同的商業模式可以適用於多個不同的市場領域。

Okay. But there's no weighting in terms of, say, North American auto producers that would cause that -- to drag that business down as we see market shifts?

好的。但是，比如說，北美汽車生產商的權重沒有受到影響，導致市場發生變化時，業務受到拖累，對吧？

No. In fact, on a global basis, Christopher, we're -- with our Polyplastics joint venture -- which as an investor, you look at -- and as a Company, we drive our business globally through the joint ventures. Our largest exposure is to Toyota. We're not just proportionate with any one manufacturer.

不。事實上，克里斯托弗，從全球來看，我們與寶理塑膠合資公司——作為投資者，你會看到——作為一家公司，我們透過合資企業推動全球業務。我們最大的合作夥伴是豐田。我們不會只與任何一家製造商保持一定比例的合作關係。

Okay. And then, quick follow-up. I just happened to see the headlines of a registration statement, a mixed shelf registration. Any color on that?

好的。然後，快速跟進一下。我剛好看到一份註冊聲明的標題，一份混合擱置註冊。有什麼具體內容嗎？

No. I'm sorry. At this time we can't put any more color on it.

不，很抱歉。目前我們無法再添加顏色。

Okay. Thanks so much, I appreciate it.

好的。非常感謝，我很感激。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Cianci with UBS. Please proceed.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的Jeff Cianci。請繼續。

Hi guys. Just a little more clarification on the acetate income swing, about $10 million. Seems you did a great job on costs, you shut down Canada -- I don't know if that was losing money -- and the whole China dislocation. I was wondering if you could clarify the pieces of that [inaudible] the best you can?

大家好。我想再澄清一下醋酸纖維的收入波動，大約1000萬美元。看來你們在成本控制方面做得很好，你們關閉了加拿大工廠——我不知道這是否造成了損失——以及整個中國工廠的營運中斷。我想知道您能否盡可能詳細地解釋一下這[聽不清楚]的各個方面？

Yes, Jeff, I'll give you the major actions and I won't be able to get the numbers exactly right but --

是的，傑夫，我會告訴你主要的行動，雖然我無法給出準確的數字，但是——

If it's magnitude, it'd be great.

如果規模很大的話，那就太好了。

Let me give you the direction on it. Beginning six quarters ago, we took five U.S. facilities -- five North America facilities, consolidated them to three. We exited a textile business and we invested in China, where the growth is. The investments -- the Chinese investments are yet to -- we're yet to see any income effect on those. John talked about the dividends coming from China, and that'll be the return on that investment beginning. So I would say withdrawing from the textile business and the restructuring we did within the business, they're probably fairly evenly split between the two, between the $10 million.

我來給你指點一下方向。從六個季度前開始，我們把五家美國工廠──五家北美工廠──合併成三家。我們退出了紡織業務，並投資於中國，那裡的成長潛力巨大。這些投資——在中國的投資——我們尚未看到對收入的任何影響。約翰談到了來自中國的股息，這將是這項投資的初始回報。所以我認為，退出紡織業務以及我們在該業務內部進行的重組，這兩項投資的收益可能會在1000萬美元之間平均分配。

Okay, both would appear sustainable then?

好的，那麼兩者看起來都是永續的？

Yes.

是的。

And evolved with the seasonality question, is there any in the Asian market, or is this a typical quarter?

隨著季節性問題的出現​​，亞洲市場是否存在這種情況，或者這是一個典型的季度？

No. And in Asia, remember, these are cost investments, so we don't --

不。記住，在亞洲，這些都是成本投資，所以我們不會——

-- dividend comes in. And in North America, there's not a lot of seasonality.

——股息進來了。在北美，季節性並不強。

Okay. So this could be the low quarter for the year for that division income wise?

好的。那麼，這可能是該部門今年收入最低的一個季度了？

I'm sorry, it could be what?

抱歉，可能是什麼？

The lowest quarter income-wise for the year, given the China coming on?

考慮到中國市場的到來，這是今年收入最低的季度嗎？

Yes, if you talk about operating EBITDA.

是的，如果你談論的是營業 EBITDA。

Yes.

是的。

We'll get some -- it'll be a one-time shot coming in, and we would expect the underlying non-JV business to be relatively flattish quarter-over-quarter. I would also highlight that we still have some restructuring that we're in the process of doing, and we would expect 2006 numbers to be good, as you talked about. But we'll have some modest improvement, going forward. These are part of the Celanese-specific opportunities we highlighted during our IPO a year ago, and there's a still a little more to go, to come there.

我們會有一些——這將是一次性的，我們預計基礎非合資業務的季度環比增長將相對持平。我還想強調的是，我們仍在進行一些重組，正如您所說，我們預計2006年的業績會不錯。但未來我們會有一些小小的改善。這些都是我們一年前首次公開募股時強調的塞拉尼斯特所擁有的機會的一部分，未來還會有更多。

Great job, thanks.

做得好，謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Judd with Greenwich Consultants. Please proceed.

您的下一個問題來自格林威治諮詢公司的麥克賈德。請繼續。

Thanks for taking my question. I'm just curious, with a weakening dollar here and I think that there was some currency impacts on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter, but how does a potentially weakening dollar impact your view, you know, from a revenue, profit, and tax perspective, please?

感謝您回答我的問題。我只是好奇，由於美元走弱，我認為第一季的匯率年比確實出現了一些影響。請問，美元走弱會對您的收入、利潤和稅收產生什麼影響？

Yes, the -- as you know, we have substantial assets, euro assets, but we also have substantial euro sales, so we hedge all balance sheet liabilities and assets. And then, we actually have natural hedges, given our profitability in Europe and our cost structure in Europe, as it now exists. We're marginally long, I think in euros, but not enough to have a significant swing, even with the euro going up to $1, whatever, 27 from $1.20.

是的，正如你所知，我們擁有大量資產，包括歐元資產，但我們也有大量歐元銷售額，因此我們對沖所有資產負債表上的負債和資產。此外，考慮到我們目前在歐洲的獲利能力和成本結構，我們實際上擁有自然對沖。我認為我們持有少量歐元多頭頭寸，但不足以產生大幅波動，即使歐元從1.20美元升至1美元，或者說27美元。

Okay, just a --

好的，只是—

We feel pretty good.

我們感覺很好。

Just as a follow-up about the tax rate being 28%, could you just describe a little bit in simpler form for me, what was the driver for that? Was it geographic or what?

關於稅率為28%的問題，能否簡單描述一下，是什麼因素導致了這個結果？是地理因素還是其他原因？

If I could do this this in a simpler form, rest assured, I would. There's some complications. With the Blackstone acquisition, there's some nuances within the accounting literature where we can actually utilize net operating losses. So economically, it's not a change in economics. We utilize them to reduce our taxes going forward. However, for book purposes, some of those benefits are applied against adjustments to goodwill. So when we utilize those benefits, we can't run them through our tax rate as we originally had anticipated that we could. There is a mix of earnings in different tax jurisdictions. So for instance, we have tax holidays in Singapore versus, as everyone knows, the tax rate in the U.S.

如果我能用更簡單的方式做到這一點，請放心，我會的。但這其中有一些複雜之處。在收購黑石的過程中，會計文獻中存在一些細微差別，我們實際上可以利用淨營業虧損。所以從經濟角度來看，這並不是經濟學的改變。我們利用這些收益來減少未來的稅收。然而，出於帳面目的，其中一些收益會用於抵銷商譽調整。因此，當我們利用這些收益時，我們不能像最初預期的那樣將其計入稅率。不同稅收管轄區的收益情況各不相同。例如，我們在新加坡享受免稅期，而眾所周知，美國的稅率是固定的。

So as our mix of earnings, we generally -- I think you well know, Mike, we run these businesses on a global basis. So, clearly, we're managing the hybrid nature and the supply demand balance on a global basis. So, some transfer pricing mechanisms, internal mechanisms, may affect the tax jurisdiction profitability. So a piece of that was built into this as well, but it really -- I think, a significant part of it has to do with the complications around this accounting with the valuation allowances. And lastly, as I pointed out, the important thing, at least from our standpoint and hopefully yours, is the cash tax estimate of $60 to $100 million, which I've been pretty consistent about since last December, is still our guidance going forward for this year.

因此，就我們的獲利組合而言，我們通常——麥克，我想你很清楚，我們在全球範圍內經營這些業務。因此，顯然，我們在全球範圍內管理混合業務和供需平衡。因此，一些轉讓定價機制，即內部機制，可能會影響稅務管轄區的獲利能力。這其中也包含一部分因素，但實際上——我認為，很大一部分原因與估值準備金的會計處理複雜性有關。最後，正如我指出的，至少從我們的角度來看，也希望從你的角度來看，重要的是6000萬至1億美元的現金稅額估算，自去年12月以來我一直對此持相當一致的看法，這仍然是我們今年的指引。

Very good. Good quarter.

非常好。這個季度表現不錯。

Thank you, Mike.

謝謝你，麥克。

Your next question comes from the line of William Mathews with Canyon Capital. Please proceed.

您的下一個問題來自 Canyon Capital 的 William Mathews。請繼續。

Hey, guys. Just a little clarification. What were the JV dividends Q1 of '05, and what were they total this quarter?

嘿，夥計們。稍微解釋一下。 2005年第一季合資公司的股利是多少？本季的股利總額是多少？

Okay. Q1 -- I would point you in the press release,to Table 4, and Q1 '05 tax dividends were $50 million. And this year, the cash dividends were $24 million.

好的。第一個問－我想在新聞稿中指出，表格4顯示，2005年第一季的稅收股利為5,000萬美元。而今年的現金股利為2400萬美元。

Okay. And is the difference, is it timing, or is it operationally related? Will that difference be closed --

好的。那麼，差別在於時間安排，還是操作方面？這種差異會被消除嗎？

It's all -- it's timing. And I mentioned for the dividends in an earlier question around the cost, but it was also the equity, as well. I think there was some timing and all this was discussed, I think last quarter, that some dividends from 2004 for both the equity and the cost investments moved into '05.

一切都取決於時機。我之前在成本問題中提到過股息，但股權也是。我認為時機問題也存在，上個季度我們已經討論過了，2004年的部分股權和成本投資股利將轉移到2005年。

Just to give you a little more texture on it, last year, 2005, we had dividends flow out of a couple of our JVs, one was our Polyplastics JV, and the other was in the Middle East. And that dividend flow should have come in the fourth quarter 2004, but just because of some timing issues around the partnership distribution, it didn't flow and it didn't hit the income statement until the first quarter 2005. That was unusual. We would expect what you're seeing here in dividend flow to be more normal for a first quarter.

稍微詳細介紹一下，2005年，我們從幾家合資公司獲得了股息，一家是寶理塑膠合資公司，另一家在中東。這些股利本應在2004年第四季到賬，但由於合作夥伴分配的一些時間問題，股利未能到賬，直到2005年第一季才計入損益表。這很不尋常。我們預計，您在這裡看到的股息流在第一季應該比較正常。

But it might be helpful then, because I know the press release is just out, it might be helpful -- in my comments I mention we expect equity earnings and cost investments for the year to be around $150 million-range. We would expect the cash piece of that to be lower, you know, $10 to $20 million than the $150, so probably the 130 to 140 range for the cash component.

但這可能會有所幫助，因為我知道新聞稿剛剛發布，這可能會有所幫助——我在評論中提到，我們預計今年的股權收益和成本投資約為1.5億美元。我們預計其中的現金部分會比1.5億美元低1000萬到2000萬美元，所以現金部分可能在1.3億到1.4億美元之間。

And do I compare that with $154 million for '05?

我是否可以將其與 2005 年的 1.54 億美元進行比較？

Yes.

是的。

It was $154 million '05 cash?

這是 05 年 1.54 億美元的現金？

Yes, that was cash.

是的，那是現金。

So what's the drop this year, again the '04 pull-in from Q4 '04?

那麼今年的降幅是多少，與 2004 年第四季相比 2004 年的降幅是多少？

Exactly.

確切地。

.It's earnings of that year.

.這是那一年的收益。

Exactly right.

完全正確。

Got. it.

知道了。

It was unusually high last year.

去年這數字異常高。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I have follow-up question from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Banc of America Securities. Please proceed.

美銀證券的Kevin McCarthy有後續問題。請繼續。

On acetic acid, is there any change in the start-up timing for Nanjing? And second, any more clarity on potential redeployment of Pampa, Texas?

關於醋酸，南京醋酸裝置的投產時間是否有變化？其次，關於德州潘帕斯裝置可能的重新部署，目前還有更明確的消息嗎？

No, there's no change on Nanjing. It's first quarter of next year, commercial sales we would expect to begin. And as far as Pampa goes, we have nothing more to add to that. We've said that we're looking for different strategic options because of the cost position, or uncompetitive cost position of Pampa, and we'll keep you posted as those things develop.

不，南京項目沒有變化。我們預計明年第一季開始商業銷售。至於Pampa項目，我們目前沒有更多消息。我們已經說過，由於Pampa的成本優勢，或缺乏競爭力，我們正在尋找不同的策略選擇，我們會隨時向大家通報進度。

Okay, and then a question for John. Do you have a target for net debt at year-end 2006?

好的，接下來問約翰一個問題。您對2006年底的淨債務目標是什麼？

Oh boy. I don't think we've come out with a target on that. I'll tell you what we did, if you remember, is we talked about, you pick your EBITDA number for the year, and, you know, we talked about the cash interest being $230 to $250 million. We talked about taxes in the $60 to $100 million range. CapEx around $250. And we'll probably, with these restructuring charges of $50 million or so of other reserve spending. So you could kind of almost back into a -- we're still, as I said and I think in the remarks, we're still comfortable with cash flow numbers consistent with where we were last year, which we think is strong and is high levels.

哦天哪。我覺得我們還沒設定目標。如果你還記得的話，我會告訴你我們做了什麼，我們討論過，你選擇年度的EBITDA數字，你知道，我們討論過現金利息在2.3億到2.5億美元之間。我們討論過稅費在6000萬到1億美元之間。資本支出約2.5億美元。加上重組費用，我們大概會用到5000萬美元左右的其他儲備支出。所以，你幾乎可以回到——正如我之前所說，我認為在評論中，我們仍然對與去年水平一致的現金流數字感到滿意，我們認為去年的現金流水平強勁且處於高位。

Okay, so if I think about your 3/31 balance and earnings expected through the end of the year, you talk about the seasonal working capital build in the first quarter, would it be reasonable to expect cash generation to exceed EPS through the balance of the year, as that working capital reverses?

好的，如果我考慮您的 3 月 31 日餘額和預計到年底的收益，您談到第一季度的季節性營運資本積累，那麼隨著營運資本的逆轉，預期現金產生量將在全年餘額中超過每股收益是否合理？

For the balance of the year, I think --

就今年的剩餘時間而言，我認為——

You're right.

你說得對。

-- you're correct. I think if you go from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, I wouldn't -- we expect an improvement in our turns, as we execute some of our working capital activities; however, with some growth in the revenue and the acquisitions. I don't think you'll actually see cash coming out of working capital.

——你說得對。我想，如果從年初到年末，我們預計營業額會有所改善，因為我們執行了一些營運資本活動；然而，隨著收入和收購的增加，我認為你實際上不會看到營運資本產生現金流。

Okay, one final housekeeping item, if I may. Where does the $10 million in squeeze-out costs hit your income statement?

好的，如果可以的話，我還有最後一個問題。 1000萬美元的擠出成本會進入你的損益表嗎？

It's in SG&A.

它在銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 中。

Okay, thanks very much, guys.

好的，非常感謝大家。

Thank you, Kevin.

謝謝你，凱文。

Our next question comes from a follow-up with Christopher Miller with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的Christopher Miller。請繼續。

I think you almost hit my question dead on the prior one on the net debt target, but maybe just expand on that a little bit more. As you look at the debt on your target, how are you kind of thinking about the debt for pay down over time, or are there pieces of that debt that you're more interested in getting out now?

我覺得你之前關於淨債務目標的問題幾乎完全回答了我的問題，但或許我可以再詳細解釋一下。當你審視你的目標債務時，你是如何考慮逐步償還這些債務的？或者說，你現在更想償還哪些部分債務？

Well, that's, unfortunately, the significant issue given our credit profile right now, as you well know, if you've looked at that. We've talked about strategic uses of cash, deleveraging the balance sheet, strategic bolt-on acquisitions, maintain our industry-leading asset base and return to the dividend -- return dividends to share owners. So in the deleveraging, we've looked at a number of different opportunities. Unfortunately, the high cost debt --the breakage costs right now are an NPV-negative proposition. So it looks like we'll have to do some things around the term loan to deleverage going forward. So we're still evaluating, but I'm not as optimistic as I was maybe three months ago that there would be a silver bullet and some things we could do from a capitalization standpoint.

嗯，很遺憾，鑑於我們目前的信用狀況，這確實是個重大問題，如果你仔細研究過的話，你肯定也知道。我們討論過現金的策略性使用、資產負債表去槓桿、策略性補強性收購、保持我們行業領先的資產基礎以及股息回報——向股東返還股息。所以在去槓桿方面，我們研究了許多不同的機會。遺憾的是，高成本債務——目前的違約成本——對淨現值（NPV）來說是負值。因此，看來我們必須圍繞定期貸款採取一些措施來降低未來的槓桿率。我們仍在評估，但我並不像三個月前那麼樂觀，認為會有靈丹妙藥，也不再像三個月前那樣，從資本化的角度來做一些事情。

When you say negative breakage cost, does that include the thought of -- do you have room for any additional equity clause an your outstanding bonds?

當您說負違約成本時，是否包括以下想法—您是否有空間在未償還債券中加入任何額外的股權條款？

Yes, we do.

是的，我們有。

Okay.

好的。

No plans to do that, however, but we do have room.

然而，沒有計劃這樣做，但我們確實有空間。

Okay. And just lastly, I apologize, is there, say, a target leverage you have looking out, not trying to make a forecast, but is there kind of a range that you'd say what you think is the appropriate leverage for this business, given the current asset base?

好的。最後，抱歉，請問您是否有目標槓桿率？我不是想做預測，但考慮到目前的資產基礎，您認為適合這項業務的槓桿率在哪個範圍內？

We've said, both to our investors and yourself and the rating agencies, we'd like to march towards investment grade. We recognize there was significant and wonderful opportunities to get ahold of these two businesses, Acetex and Genemule, that were kind of rate down the fairway from a strategic standpoint and what we would be good at, but we would like to move toward investment grade. I'm not saying we'd get an absolute rating of investment grade at all costs, but that's where we're headed.

我們已經對我們的投資者、您本人以及評級機構說過，我們希望邁向投資等級。我們意識到，收購Acetex和Genemule這兩家公司有著重大而絕佳的機會，從戰略角度來看，它們已經走在了正確的軌道上，而且也是我們擅長的領域，但我們希望邁向投資級。我並不是說我們會不惜一切代價獲得絕對的投資等級評級，但這正是我們努力的方向。

Okay. Thank you again, I appreciate it.

好的。再次感謝，我很感激。

Thanks, Christopher. Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Edlain Rodriguez with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

謝謝，克里斯多福。您的下一個問題是高盛的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯（Edlain Rodriguez）提出的後續問題。請繼續。

Hi, just housekeeping question. Now that you're no longer showing minority interest expense, can you remind us again what sort of P&L lines get impacted by no longer having minority interest in there?

您好，我只是想問個常規問題。既然你們現在不再顯示少數股東權益支出，你能否再提醒我們一下，哪些損益表項目會因為少數股東權益的消失而受到影響？

Yes, the minority interest expense is a separate line, as you well know, on the face of the earnings statement. And the reason that was there last year was, last year we owned approximately 84% of CAG. Now, with some of the settlement activities we've undertaken over the last 12 months, we own 98-plus% of CAG so, essentially, the minority interest impact of that goes to almost to zero. It's probably a rounding. There's a guaranteed payment that was included in SG&A -- is that in SG&A?

是的，如您所知，少數股東權益費用在損益表中單獨列示。去年之所以有這項，是因為去年我們持有CAG約84%的股份。現在，考慮到過去12個月我們進行的一些結算活動，我們持有CAG超過98%的股份，因此，這部分少數股東權益的影響實際上幾乎為零。這可能是四捨五入。銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）中包含了一筆保證金－這筆錢算在銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）裡嗎？

Other income and expense.

其他收入和支出。

Oh, I'm sorry, other income and expense. And that's probably $7 million, from last year. It goes away.

哦，抱歉，其他收入和支出。去年大概有700萬美元了。已經沒了。

And Edlain, if you look -- on Table 1 at operating EBITDA, that German minority payment is part of the other activities. And that, plus AT Plastics income -- we put AT Plastics, which is part of the Acetex transition, in other activities. Those two things largely explain the improvement in other activities year-over-year.

艾德萊恩，如果你看一下表1的營業EBITDA，你會發現德國少數族裔的付款是其他業務的一部分。再加上AT Plastics的收入－我們把AT Plastics（Acetex轉型的一部分）也計入了其他業務。這兩點很大程度上解釋了其他業務的同比改善。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Your last question comes from the line of William Young with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.

您的最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的William Young。請繼續。

Hi, just a couple of real quick ones. How are things progressing on your new vinyl acetates facility that's under construction in China?

您好，我只想快速問幾個問題。你們在中國正在興建的醋酸乙烯酯新廠進展如何？

They're going well. I would say that the first thing, Bill, that we're going to start up is the acetic acid plant, and everything there is working very well. Right now, we're in the engineering stage of the [inaudible] plant. We also announced an emulsion facility that we're building in China. We broke ground on that here within the last two weeks, and had a nice event in Nanjing on that, so it's going very well. You'd be surprised, going over to Nanjing. I was there three years ago and there was basically nothing on the ground in that big industrial park. I was there again about two months ago, and it's completely filled up. Incredible in how that place is coming together as a park, and we're happy to be part of it.

一切進展順利。比爾，我想說，我們首先要啟動的是醋酸工廠，那裡的一切運作都很順利。目前，我們正處於[音訊不清楚]工廠的工程設計階段。我們也宣布了在中國建設的乳液工廠。我們在過去兩週內在這裡破土動工，並在南京舉辦了一場精彩的活動，所以一切進展順利。如果你去南京，你可能會感到驚訝。三年前我去過那裡，那個大型工業園區幾乎什麼都沒有。大約兩個月前我又去了那裡，那裡已經完全擠滿了人。那裡就像一個園區一樣，真是令人難以置信，我們很高興能參與其中。

And your current start-up dates for the vinyl acetate plant, what's your thinking?

您目前對醋酸乙烯工廠的投產日期有什麼想法？

First quarter -- first quarter 2007 -- first quarter [MULTIPLE SPEAKERS] The vinyl plant's 2008.

第一季 -- 2007 年第一季 -- 第一季 [多位發言者] 乙烯基工廠的 2008 年。

Early in the year?

年初嗎？

We haven't been specific. We're going to get in the market -- we're beginning to bring it up when the market needs it.

我們還沒有具體說明。我們會進入市場－當市場需要的時候，我們就會開始提出這個建議。

Bring it up when the market needs it. Okay, okay, that's great. Last, what's the opportunity, or is there any possibility of restructuring some of your investments in China to make the accounting any easier? Simplifying?

當市場需要的時候再提出來。好的，好的，太好了。最後，有什麼機會，或者說是否有可能重組你們在中國的一些投資，使會計工作更容易一些？簡化一些？

You know, Bill. We've been open on this. We love our joint ventures. We're the strategic partner in our joint ventures in Ticona, in Acetate. Given the opportunity and given the right economics, we would buy part of these activities,or all of them, if it was available and it was the right economics. You need to have a seller in order to have a buyer and a seller, and at this point in time, I'm not optimistic that there's a seller.

比爾，你知道的。我們對此一直持開放態度。我們熱愛我們的合資企業。我們是泰科納和醋酸纖維合資企業的策略夥伴。如果有機會，且經濟條件合適，我們會收購這些業務的部分或全部，前提是條件成熟且經濟效益良好。你需要有賣方才能有買方和賣方，而目前，我對找到賣方並不樂觀。

Okay. Great. Thank you so much.

好的。太好了。非常感謝。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

There are no additional questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

Great. Thanks, everyone for taking the time for the call. If you have any questions, feel free to give me or anybody on my team a call. We'll walk through any more details that you may need. Thanks.

太好了！感謝大家抽空參加電話會議。如果您有任何疑問，請隨時打電話給我或我的團隊成員。我們會進一步了解您可能需要的更多細節。謝謝。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.

感謝您參加今天的會議。演講到此結束。您可以斷開連線了。祝您早日康復。