使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the Carnival Corporation Q2 2026 earnings results. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
各位好,歡迎參加嘉年華集團(Carnival Corporation)2026 年第二季財報結果說明會。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Beth. Please go ahead.
現在很榮幸為各位介紹本次會議主持人:投資人關係資深副總裁 Beth Roberts。謝謝你,Beth。請開始。
Beth Roberts - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations
Beth Roberts - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein; our CFO, David Bernstein; and our Chair, Micky Arison.
謝謝。各位早安,歡迎參加我們 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有執行長 Josh Weinstein、財務長 David Bernstein,以及董事長 Micky Arison。
Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward looking. Therefore, I will refer you to today's press release and our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations.
在開始之前,請注意我們在本次電話會議中的部分發言將屬於前瞻性陳述。因此,我將請各位參閱今日新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的文件,以取得更多可能導致實際結果與我們預期不同之因素與風險的相關資訊。
We will be referencing certain non-GAAP financial measures, including yields, cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income, and related statistics for all, which are on a net basis or adjusted as defined, unless otherwise stated. A reconciliation to US GAAP is included in our earnings press release and our investor presentation. References to ticket prices, yields, and cruise costs without fuel are in constant currency unless we note otherwise. Please visit our corporate website where our earnings press release and investor presentation can be found.
我們將引用若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標,包括收益率(yields)、不含燃油的郵輪成本、EBITDA、淨利以及相關統計數據;除非另有說明,以上均以淨額基礎或依定義調整後呈現。與美國 GAAP 的調節表已收錄於我們的財報新聞稿與投資人簡報中。除非另有註明,對票價、收益率及不含燃油的郵輪成本之引用均以固定匯率(constant currency)計算。請造訪我們的公司網站,可取得財報新聞稿與投資人簡報。
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh.
接下來,我想把電話會議交給 Josh。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Beth, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,Beth,各位早安。
Once again, we delivered another quarter of outperformance, demonstrating the strong demand we have across our portfolio of world-class cruise lines, the value consumers place on our vacation experiences, and the progress we're making across the business. It was another record quarter, with records across revenues, yields, EBITDA, net income, and customer deposits, which reached an all-time high of $9 billion. We outperformed our March guidance by $100 million, driven by continued commercial execution and a step-up in our cost efficiency efforts across the organization.
我們再次交出優於預期的一季,展現出我們旗下世界級郵輪品牌組合的強勁需求、消費者對我們度假體驗價值的認同,以及我們在各項業務上持續推進的成果。本季再度創下紀錄,營收、收益率、EBITDA、淨利與客戶訂金皆創新高,其中客戶訂金達到歷史新高 90 億美元。我們較 3 月的指引高出 1 億美元,主要受惠於持續的商業執行力,以及全組織成本效率提升工作的加速推進。
Yields exceeded expectations on resilient close-in demand and robust onboard spending and marked our 12th consecutive quarter of record yields. At the same time, we intensified our focus on cost management, delivering flat unit operating costs and outperforming our cost guidance by 2.5 points. Fuel efficiency improved by more than 5%, building on last year's over 6% efficiency gain and further supporting our cost performance.
在臨近出發日(close-in)需求具韌性與船上消費強勁的帶動下,收益率超出預期,並寫下連續第 12 季收益率創新高。同時,我們加大對成本管理的聚焦,實現單位營運成本持平,且成本表現較指引優出 2.5 個百分點。燃油效率提升超過 5%,在去年超過 6% 的效率增幅基礎上再進一步改善,並持續支撐我們的成本表現。
What stands out most is that we achieved these results despite operating through a period of extreme geopolitical volatility, consumer sentiment at historically low levels, and unusually high fuel prices. As we have consistently said, though, while we are incredibly resilient to major external shocks, we are not immune, and near-term disruption can affect the timing of results, especially when it persists for an extended period of time.
最值得注意的是,我們是在地緣政治高度動盪、消費者信心處於歷史低位,以及燃油價格異常偏高的期間仍達成這些成果。不過,正如我們一再強調,雖然我們對重大外部衝擊具備極強韌性,但並非完全免疫;短期擾動可能影響成果實現的時點,尤其當其持續較長時間時更是如此。
Accordingly, our second-quarter operational outperformance and accelerated cost efforts are offsetting the moderation we've incorporated into our back half outlook given the impact of the prolonged conflict. Specifically, this moderation was concentrated on our European deployments, particularly in the Med region, which were closest to the conflict. And it was further exacerbated by elevated airfares and reduced international flight capacity for North American guests.
因此,我們第二季的營運超預期表現與加速的成本措施,正在抵銷我們因長期衝突影響而納入下半年展望中的溫和下修。具體而言,這項下修主要集中在我們的歐洲航線部署,尤其是最接近衝突的地中海(Med)區域。此外,北美旅客面臨機票價格上升與國際航班運能下降,也進一步加劇了影響。
So yes, this did put a bit of a dent in our trajectory, but as you would expect, our revenue management teams pivoted and performed exceptionally well. We entered the quarter having strategically positioned ourselves with both an occupancy and pricing advantage which was significant for European deployments and which allowed us to deliberately utilize much of that occupancy advantage to prioritize price integrity.
所以,是的,這確實讓我們的成長軌跡稍微受到影響;但如各位所預期,我們的收益管理團隊迅速調整並表現出色。我們在進入本季前已策略性地建立了入住率與定價上的優勢,這對歐洲部署尤其重要,也使我們能刻意運用相當部分的入住率優勢來優先維持價格完整性。
As a result, our book position remains ahead of last year as we begin the third quarter at record prices in each of the remaining quarters of this year. With 93% of the business on our books and less inventory remaining for sale than last year, we are well positioned to close out 2026. And we continue to expect record yields in the second half of the year, building on the strong mid-single-digit growth we achieved last year.
因此,當我們以第三季開局時,我們的預訂進度仍領先去年,且今年剩餘各季的價格皆創新高。目前 93% 的業務已在手,且可供銷售的剩餘庫存少於去年,我們具備良好條件完成 2026 年。我們仍預期下半年收益率將創新高,並在去年已達成的中個位數強勁成長基礎上再向上提升。
Looking further out, we have continued to drive strong bookings for 2027 and beyond, reinforcing our extended booking curve. Since the start of the second quarter, booking volumes and pricing for these future sailings have continued to run ahead of last year's levels. This strength has been broad-based and includes our European deployments to next year, where bookings were up year over year in mid-teens percentages at higher prices, supporting our confidence in the longer-term demand environment.
展望更長期,我們持續推動 2027 年及之後航次的強勁預訂,進一步強化我們延長的預訂曲線。自第二季開始以來,這些未來航次的預訂量與定價持續高於去年水準。這股強勢表現相當廣泛,也包含我們明年在歐洲的部署;其預訂年增達中十位數百分比,且價格更高,支持我們對長期需求環境的信心。
As conditions continue to normalize, we expect to benefit from the strong underlying demand, pricing, and operational improvements that remain embedded in our business. And in fact, booking trends in recent weeks suggest we are already beginning to see a reversal of these headwinds.
隨著情勢持續正常化,我們預期將受惠於仍深植於公司營運中的強勁基本面需求、定價能力與營運改善。事實上,近幾週的預訂趨勢顯示,我們已開始看到這些逆風出現反轉跡象。
The key takeaway here is that this moderation is already proving to be transitory and is not something that alters the underlying trajectory of the company. Importantly, these strong results are not being driven by a single factor; they are supported by structural improvements we continue to make across the business. These improvements are increasingly being driven by three areas: stronger commercial capabilities, disciplined fleet investments, and our differentiated destination portfolio, all while further reinforcing our industry-leading cost advantage.
這裡的關鍵重點是:這次的溫和下修已證明只是短暫現象,並不會改變公司的基本成長軌跡。重要的是,這些強勁成果並非由單一因素驅動;而是來自我們持續在全公司推動的結構性改善。這些改善愈來愈主要由三大面向帶動:更強的商業能力、紀律性的船隊投資,以及我們具差異化的目的地組合,同時進一步鞏固我們業界領先的成本優勢。
First, we continue to sharpen our commercial capabilities through revenue management enhancement, personalization, marketing effectiveness, and pulling onboard spending forward. These capabilities are helping us drive stronger pricing, higher onboard spend, and improved commercial execution across the portfolio.
第一,我們持續透過強化收益管理、個人化、行銷效能,以及將船上消費前移(pulling onboard spending forward)來精進商業能力。這些能力正協助我們在整體品牌組合中推動更強的定價、更高的船上消費,以及更佳的商業執行。
Second, we're continuing to improve the earnings power of both our existing and future fleet through disciplined capacity growth and high-return investments. Our capacity growth remains intentionally measured, and we remain highly disciplined in how we allocate capital, investing behind those brands and opportunities that demonstrate the strongest return potential.
第二,我們透過有紀律的運能成長與高報酬投資,持續提升現有與未來船隊的獲利能力。我們的運能成長仍刻意維持在可控節奏,且在資本配置上高度自律,將投資集中於那些展現最強報酬潛力的品牌與機會。
This quarter, we placed orders for three new Princess Cruises ships, scheduled for delivery in 2035, 2038, and 2039. These vessels build upon the success of our Sphere Class platform, with Sun Princess and Star Princess continuing to deliver fantastic guest satisfaction and commercial performance. They bring our total order book to 10 ships, including five for Carnival Cruise Line and two for AIDA.
本季,我們下訂三艘全新公主郵輪(Princess Cruises)新船,預計分別於 2035 年、2038 年與 2039 年交付。這些船舶將延續我們 Sphere Class 平台的成功,Sun Princess 與 Star Princess 持續帶來極佳的旅客滿意度與商業表現。這使我們的總訂單量達到 10 艘,其中包括嘉年華郵輪(Carnival Cruise Line)5 艘,以及 AIDA 2 艘。
While it is safe to assume that more vessels will be ordered for delivery in the 2030s, we have no plans to deviate from our one- to two-ships-per-year cadence. What we do plan to do is lean heavily into investing in return-generating modernization programs across our existing fleet. We are very encouraged by the continued performance of the AIDA Evolution program, with AIDAbella becoming the third of seven ships to complete the upgrade.
雖然可以合理推測,未來仍會有更多船舶訂單安排在 2030 年代交付,但我們無意偏離每年 1 至 2 艘的下單節奏。我們計畫大力投入於現有船隊的現代化升級計畫,以創造報酬。我們對 AIDA Evolution 計畫的持續表現感到非常鼓舞,AIDAbella 已成為完成升級的 7 艘船中的第 3 艘。
We also recently announced Holland America Evolution, our next midlife modernization program, which will further enhance the guest experience while creating additional revenue opportunities and operational efficiencies. Six Holland America Line ships will receive these upgrades, beginning with Oosterdam in the fall of 2027. And we also anticipate moderate capacity growth for Holland America as we leverage ways to add cabins to these ships. You can expect to hear more in the coming months about significant enhancement programs for more of our brands.
我們也在近期宣布 Holland America Evolution,作為下一個中期船齡的現代化升級計畫,將在提升旅客體驗的同時,創造更多營收機會與營運效率。荷美郵輪(Holland America Line)將有 6 艘船接受升級,並將於 2027 年秋季由 Oosterdam 率先開始。此外,我們也預期荷美郵輪的運能將溫和成長,因為我們將運用各種方式為這些船舶增加艙房數。未來幾個月,各位可望聽到更多關於我們其他品牌重大升級計畫的消息。
Third, we continue to maximize the value of our unmatched destination portfolio through investments that enhance the guest experience, strengthen itinerary differentiation, and further leverage this amazing footprint. In early May, we completed a pier extension at Celebration Key, increasing operational flexibility and enabling us to accommodate up to four ships and over 13,000 guests on any given day. Next year, Celebration Key is expected to welcome 3.5 million visitors, while still providing ample capacity for future land-side expansion.
第三,我們持續透過投資來最大化我們無可匹敵的目的地組合價值,這些投資可提升賓客體驗、強化航程差異化,並進一步發揮這個令人驚嘆的版圖優勢。5月初,我們完成了 Celebration Key 的碼頭延伸工程,提高營運彈性,並使我們在任何一天都能同時容納最多四艘船與超過13,000名賓客。預計明年 Celebration Key 將迎來350萬名訪客,同時仍保有充足容量以支援未來陸域擴建。
This month, we also opened the new pier at RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay, enabling two of our largest ships to dock simultaneously while maintaining tender operations for mid-sized vessels. This increases capacity at the destination to over 12,000 guests per day. RelaxAway has opened to rave reviews, reflecting our deliberate intention to preserve the natural beauty and relaxed atmosphere that have made Half Moon Cay one of the most beloved destinations in the Caribbean.
本月,我們也在 RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay 啟用新的碼頭,使我們兩艘最大的郵輪可同時靠泊,並同時維持中型船舶的接駁(tender)作業。這使該目的地的每日接待量提升至超過12,000名賓客。RelaxAway 開放後獲得熱烈好評,反映我們刻意保留其自然美景與悠閒氛圍的用心,而這正是 Half Moon Cay 成為加勒比海最受喜愛目的地之一的原因。
Importantly, these investments enable us to offer both Celebration Key, Grand Bahama, and RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay on the same itinerary, creating two highly differentiated beach experiences within a single vacation. Celebration Key offers a high-energy experience, including expansive lagoons, the world's largest sandcastle, complete with water slides, and the world's largest swim-up bar. RelaxAway is centered on the natural beauty of its mile-long white sand beach and picturesque crystal blue waters.
重要的是,這些投資使我們能在同一航程中同時提供 Celebration Key(Grand Bahama)與 RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay,讓一趟假期內就能享有兩種高度差異化的海灘體驗。Celebration Key 提供高能量的體驗,包括廣闊的潟湖、全球最大的沙堡(配有水上滑道),以及全球最大的池畔酒吧(swim-up bar)。RelaxAway 則以其一英里長的白沙灘與如畫般的湛藍清澈海水之自然美景為核心。
We believe this pairing is a meaningful competitive advantage. Beach vacations are among the most popular vacation choices for consumers, and few travel companies can offer this level of variety, convenience, and value within a single vacation experience.
我們相信這樣的搭配是一項重要的競爭優勢。海灘度假是消費者最受歡迎的度假選擇之一,而能在單一度假體驗中提供如此程度的多樣性、便利性與價值的旅遊公司寥寥可數。
We also continue to invest in Isla Tropicale in Roatan, recently completing an enhanced pool and cabana offering that adds to an already highly rated destination. These investments further strengthen our Western Caribbean itineraries by giving guests the flexibility to choose between an amazing beach day or explore one of the Caribbean's most content-rich destinations.
我們也持續投資於羅阿坦(Roatan)的 Isla Tropicale,近期完成了升級的泳池與小屋(cabana)方案,為這個原本就評價極高的目的地再添亮點。這些投資進一步強化我們的西加勒比航程,讓賓客可彈性選擇享受精彩的海灘日,或探索加勒比海內容最豐富的目的地之一。
Isla Tropicale also pairs exceptionally well with our destination in Cozumel, Puerta Maya, which serves as a gateway to some of the most sought-after cultural and adventure experiences in Mexico. Together, these destinations create a differentiated Western Caribbean vacation that appeals to a broad range of guests and supports stronger demand across our deployment offering.
Isla Tropicale 也能與我們在科蘇梅爾(Cozumel)的目的地 Puerta Maya 形成絕佳搭配,該地是通往墨西哥最受追捧的文化與冒險體驗之一的門戶。這些目的地結合後,打造出差異化的西加勒比度假體驗,能吸引廣泛的賓客族群,並支撐我們部署產品的更強需求。
These investments are particularly important because they build upon a position of strength in the Gulf Coast, where we have spent more than 25 years establishing the industry's leading presence. Today, we sail approximately 1 million guests annually from Galveston and operate six ships from the market, soon to be seven, with the arrival of Carnival Tropicale in 2028. Our scale, which also extends to Gulf home ports in New Orleans, Mobile, and Tampa, combined with our destination portfolio and long-standing year-round presence, provide a meaningful competitive advantage as demand continues to grow throughout the region. Taken together, our Paradise Collection destinations are expected to welcome over 9 million guest visits next year, with approximately 85% (sic - see slide 13, "90%") of our Caribbean itineraries calling on at least one exclusive destination and nearly half visiting two or more.
這些投資尤其重要,因為它們建立在我們於墨西哥灣沿岸的既有優勢之上;我們在該區域深耕超過25年,建立了業界領先的存在。目前,我們每年約有100萬名賓客自加爾維斯頓(Galveston)出航,並在該市場營運六艘船,隨著 2028 年 Carnival Tropicale 的加入,將很快增至七艘。我們的規模亦延伸至新奧爾良、莫比爾(Mobile)與坦帕(Tampa)等墨西哥灣母港;結合我們的目的地組合與長年全年無休的營運布局,隨著區域需求持續成長,形成具實質意義的競爭優勢。綜合而言,預計明年我們的 Paradise Collection 目的地將迎來超過900萬人次的賓客造訪,其中約85%(原文如此—見投影片13,「90%」)的加勒比航程將停靠至少一個專屬目的地,且近一半將造訪兩個或以上。
Our unique destination strategy extends well beyond the Caribbean. Alaska remains one of our most important competitive advantages, spanned across five of our brands, 19 ships, and four embarkation ports. Our scale and long-standing presence in the Alaska region have helped secure preferential access to both embarkation ports and ports of call, creating advantages that are increasingly difficult to replicate.
我們獨特的目的地策略遠不止於加勒比海。阿拉斯加仍是我們最重要的競爭優勢之一,涵蓋旗下五個品牌、19艘船與四個登船港。我們在阿拉斯加地區的規模與長期布局,協助我們取得登船港與停靠港的優先使用權,形成愈來愈難以複製的優勢。
Importantly, we're the only cruise company with a fully integrated land and sea platform. Through our lodges, rail assets, and motor coach operations, we offer high-yielding land and sea experiences that further differentiate our Alaska offerings. We currently operate lodges at eight properties, including Denali, where an expansion of our most popular property is currently underway, reflecting both the strength of demand and our confidence in the long-term growth opportunity in the region.
重要的是,我們是唯一擁有完全整合之陸海平台的郵輪公司。透過我們的旅館(lodge)、鐵路資產與巴士(motor coach)營運,我們提供高收益的陸海體驗,進一步差異化我們的阿拉斯加產品。我們目前在八處物業營運旅館,包括德納里(Denali);我們最受歡迎物業的擴建工程正在進行中,反映需求的強勁以及我們對該區域長期成長機會的信心。
Together, our Caribbean and Alaska destination portfolios are exceptional assets that strengthen our competitive position and support long-term growth across the business. Collectively, our commercial, our fleet, and our destination initiatives are strengthening the business. As they continue to mature, we expect them to drive stronger earnings, cash flow, and returns over time.
綜合而言,我們的加勒比海與阿拉斯加目的地組合是卓越資產,強化我們的競爭地位並支撐全公司長期成長。整體來看,我們的商業策略、船隊與目的地等各項措施正在強化公司體質。隨著這些措施持續成熟,我們預期將隨時間推動更強的獲利、現金流與報酬。
And as of today, we have the financial flexibility to simultaneously invest in our brands and destinations, continue reducing leverage, and accelerate shareholder returns. Consistent with that approach, we have already repurchased $450 million of stock under our opportunistic share buyback program. That flexibility is a direct result of the progress we've made over the past several years and reflects the strength of the foundation we've built.
而截至今日,我們具備同時投資於品牌與目的地、持續降低槓桿,並加速股東報酬的財務彈性。與此方針一致,我們已在機會型庫藏股回購計畫下回購了4.5億美元的股票。這份彈性直接來自我們過去數年所取得的進展,並反映我們所建立之基礎的強韌。
As we look ahead, we remain focused on executing our strategy, navigating external conditions as they emerge, and continuing to deliver sustainable long-term value for our shareholders. Of course, none of this progress would be possible without the dedication of our more than 160,000 team members, ship and shore.
展望未來,我們將持續專注於執行策略、在外部環境變化出現時妥善因應,並持續為股東創造可持續的長期價值。當然,若沒有我們超過160,000名團隊成員(船上與岸上)的投入與奉獻,這些進展都不可能實現。
I want to thank them for delivering these second-quarter results and continuing to go above and beyond to deliver unforgettable happiness to our guests by providing them with extraordinary cruise vacations while honoring the integrity of every place we visit, life we touch, and ocean we sail. I also want to thank our travel agent partners, our loyal guests, investors, destination partners, and all of our stakeholders for their continued support and for helping us build the momentum we are seeing across the business.
我要感謝他們交出第二季的成果,並持續超越期待,透過提供非凡的郵輪假期,為賓客帶來難忘的幸福,同時恪守我們對每一個造訪之地、每一段觸及之生命,以及每一片航行之海洋的尊重與正直。我也要感謝我們的旅行社夥伴、忠誠的賓客、投資人、目的地合作夥伴,以及所有利害關係人持續的支持,並協助我們在整體業務上建立目前所見的動能。
With that, I'll turn the call over to David to walk you through the quarter and our guidance in more detail.
接下來,我把電話會議交給 David,請他更詳細地帶大家了解本季表現與我們的指引。
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Thank you, Josh. I'll start today with a summary of our second-quarter 2026 results, then I'll provide color on our full-year June guidance and finish up with some comments on the unification of our dual-listed company structure and an update on our share buyback program.
謝謝你,Josh。我今天先從2026年第二季業績摘要開始,接著補充我們6月所提供的全年指引細節,最後談談我們雙重上市公司架構的統一,以及我們股票回購計畫的最新進度。
We delivered record second-quarter net income, exceeding our March guidance across revenue, costs, and earnings. These results reflect strong execution across our portfolio and the benefits of enhanced revenue optimization, cost management, and operational efficiency.
我們創下第二季淨利新高,且在營收、成本與獲利方面均超越3月的指引。這些成果反映我們在整體組合上的強勁執行力,以及營收最佳化提升、成本管理與營運效率所帶來的效益。
Net income (sic - see slide 4, "Adjusted net income") of $569 million was more than 20% higher than the prior year, despite a nearly 30% increase in our fuel price. Adjusted net income exceeded our March guidance by $100 million or $0.07 per share.
淨利(原文如此—見投影片4,「調整後淨利」)為5.69億美元,較去年同期高出逾20%,儘管燃油價格上漲近30%。調整後淨利較我們3月指引高出1億美元,或每股0.07美元。
The outperformance versus March guidance was driven by three factors. The primary driver of our outperformance was exceptional cost discipline. Cruise costs without fuel per ALBD were essentially flat year over year, outperforming our March guidance by approximately 250 basis points and contributed $0.05 per share. This substantial improvement was achieved despite higher crew travel costs and freight resulting from the Middle East disruption. Some of the $0.05 per share cost improvement this quarter was timing of expenses between the quarters.
相較於3月指引的超預期表現由三項因素驅動。我們超預期的主要驅動因素是卓越的成本紀律。以每ALBD計算、扣除燃油的郵輪成本年增幾乎持平,較3月指引優於約250個基點,並貢獻每股0.05美元。即便因中東局勢干擾導致船員差旅成本與運費上升,我們仍達成這項顯著改善。本季每股0.05美元的部分成本改善,來自季度間費用認列時點的差異。
Importantly, the improvement was not solely timing-related. During the quarter, we identified and implemented several initiatives that reduced our cost base and will continue to benefit earnings throughout the remainder of this year and beyond, resulting in a $0.06 per share cost improvement flowing through to our full-year June guidance.
重要的是,這項改善並非僅與時點因素有關。在本季度期間,我們辨識並推動了數項可降低成本基礎的措施,且將在今年剩餘期間及往後持續挹注獲利,使每股成本改善0.06美元反映於我們對截至6月的全年指引之中。
Second, revenue contributed $0.01 per share as yields were up 2.2% versus the prior year on top of a more than 6% increase in the second quarter last year. Despite extreme geopolitical volatility and historic low levels of consumer sentiment throughout the quarter, resilient close-in demand and robust onboard spending drove yields modestly above our March expectations.
第二,營收貢獻每股0.01美元,因為在去年第二季已超過6%成長的基礎上,殖利率較去年同期再上升2.2%。儘管本季度面臨極端的地緣政治波動,以及消費者信心處於歷史低檔,具韌性的臨近出發需求與強勁的船上消費,仍推動殖利率小幅高於我們3月的預期。
And third, the remaining $0.01 per share of favorability came from improvements in depreciation expense and fuel consumption, where we delivered an over 5% year-over-year reduction.
第三,其餘每股0.01美元的有利因素來自折舊費用與燃油耗用的改善,我們實現了年對年超過5%的降幅。
Now turning to our full-year June guidance. Our full-year guidance calls for earnings per share of $2.22, which is $0.01 above our previous guidance as we recognize the EPS accretion from our second-quarter share repurchases.
接著談我們截至6月的全年指引。我們的全年指引為每股盈餘2.22美元,較先前指引高出0.01美元,因為我們認列第二季庫藏股回購帶來的每股盈餘增厚效果。
Overall, due to the extreme geopolitical volatility that lasted more than three months, our June guidance reflects a revision to yield that was offset by our intensified focus on cost management. We view the revision to yield as transitory and not something that alters the underlying trajectory of the company, while our cost management initiatives are embedded in the business and should continue to benefit us over time. In addition, given the recent volatility of fuel prices, I would like to point out that the net impact of fuel pricing currency on our June guidance versus our previous guidance was less than $0.01 per share, with our fuel price for June guidance based on the current spot price of fuel.
整體而言,由於持續超過三個月的極端地緣政治波動,我們的6月指引反映了對殖利率的修正,但該影響已被我們加強聚焦成本管理所抵銷。我們認為殖利率的修正屬於短暫性,並不會改變公司的基本發展軌跡;相較之下,我們的成本管理措施已內嵌於營運之中,應可隨時間持續帶來效益。此外,鑑於近期燃油價格波動,我想指出:燃油定價與匯率對我們6月指引相較先前指引的淨影響低於每股0.01美元;我們6月指引所採用的燃油價格係以目前燃油即期價格為基礎。
Now turning to yield growth. Our June guidance assumes normalized yield growth of approximately 2.25%. As you recall, we normalized 2026 yield growth by approximately 50 basis points for two things: the previously disclosed impact of last summer's close-in decision to redeploy away from the winter 2026 Arabian Gulf voyages which, in hindsight, turned out to be a great decision, and the fourth-quarter impacts of loyalty program accounting. Our yield growth was revised by approximately 1 percentage point relative to our previous guidance and represents a $0.14 per share operational knock-on impact of the extreme geopolitical volatility generated by the Middle East conflict.
接著談殖利率成長。我們的6月指引假設常態化殖利率成長約為2.25%。如各位所記得,我們將2026年的殖利率成長常態化調整約50個基點,原因有二:先前已揭露、去年夏天臨近出發時決定將冬季2026阿拉伯灣航程改為其他部署的影響——事後看來那是個很好的決定——以及第四季忠誠計畫會計處理的影響。相較先前指引,我們將殖利率成長下修約1個百分點,這反映中東衝突引發的極端地緣政治波動所造成的營運連鎖影響,約為每股0.14美元。
As you heard from Josh, the conflict in the Middle East impacted our European deployments. The end result is a portion of the yield moderation is from slightly lower occupancy, and this revision includes both ticket and onboard revenue. We believe this decision is consistent with our philosophy of making decisions that are in the best interest of the company in the long run and will facilitate our ability to benefit from inherent strong demand as the extreme geopolitical volatility subsides.
如同Josh所提到的,中東衝突影響了我們在歐洲的部署。最終結果是,殖利率放緩的一部分來自入住率略低,而此次修正同時涵蓋船票收入與船上收入。我們相信這項決策符合我們一貫的理念:做出符合公司長期最佳利益的決定,並在極端地緣政治波動消退後,促使我們能受惠於本質上強勁的需求。
Cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are now expected to be up approximately 1.3% on a normalized basis, which includes the $0.06 per share cost savings I previously mentioned. This is normalized for three factors that constitute slightly more than 1 point of cruise costs without fuel: the partial year operating expenses associated with Celebration Key and RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay, and the timing of certain expenses between years, as we previously discussed, as well as the recent impact of higher crew travel costs and freight resulting from the Middle East disruption.
以每ALBD計算、不含燃油的郵輪成本,現在預期在常態化基礎上約上升1.3%,其中包含我先前提到的每股0.06美元成本節省。此數字已就三項因素進行常態化調整,這三項因素合計使不含燃油的郵輪成本略高於1個百分點:與Celebration Key及RelaxAway、Half Moon Cay相關的部分年度營運費用、如先前所述跨年度的部分費用時點差異,以及近期因中東擾動導致的較高船員差旅成本與運費。
Importantly, while the conflict in the Middle East resulted in a yield growth revision by approximately 1 percentage point relative to our prior guidance, our intensified focus on cost management generated an offsetting 1-percentage-point improvement in cruise costs without fuel. This demonstrates the many levers we have to manage the overall performance of our business. Other operational favorability of $0.08 per share were driven by improvements in depreciation expense, fuel consumption, fuel mix, net interest expense, and other income.
重要的是,雖然中東衝突使殖利率成長相較先前指引下修約1個百分點,但我們加強聚焦成本管理,帶來不含燃油的郵輪成本相抵的1個百分點改善。這顯示我們擁有多種槓桿可用以管理整體營運表現。其他每股0.08美元的營運有利因素,來自折舊費用、燃油耗用、燃油組合、淨利息費用及其他收入的改善。
Now, I'll finish up with some comments on the unification of our dual-listed company structure and an update on our share buyback program. In early May, we announced the completion of the unification of our dual-listed company structure under a single company, Carnival Corporation, with Carnival plc as a UK subsidiary of Carnival Corporation.
最後,我將就我們雙重上市公司架構的統一,以及庫藏股回購計畫的最新進展做一些說明。5月初,我們宣布已完成將雙重上市公司架構統一至單一公司——Carnival Corporation——之下,並使Carnival plc成為Carnival Corporation在英國的子公司。
The completion of the DLC unification represents an important milestone in our company's evolution. The transaction simplifies our corporate structure, enhances liquidity in our stock, creates a single global share price, and reduces administrative complexity, all of which strengthens our ability to create long-term shareholder value. I would like to take this opportunity to say thank you to our shareholders for their overwhelming support for this initiative.
完成DLC統一是公司演進過程中的重要里程碑。此交易簡化了公司架構、提升股票流動性、形成單一的全球股價,並降低行政複雜度;以上各項都強化了我們創造長期股東價值的能力。我也想藉此機會感謝股東對此項倡議的熱烈支持。
Turning to capital allocation. In late March, our Board of Directors approved an initial $2.5 billion share buyback program. The authorization of our buyback program reflects both the strength of our cash flow generation and our confidence in the long-term value of the business.
接著談資本配置。3月下旬,我們董事會核准一項初始規模25億美元的庫藏股回購計畫。回購計畫的核准,反映我們現金流創造能力的強勁,以及我們對業務長期價值的信心。
To date, we have opportunistically repurchased over 17 million shares for over $450 million. Combining our annualized dividend distributions and just the share repurchases completed to date, we will be returning $1.3 billion to shareholders this year, while continuing to invest in growth opportunities and further strengthening our balance sheet.
截至目前,我們已在適當時機回購超過1,700萬股,金額超過4.5億美元。結合我們年化股利發放與目前已完成的庫藏股回購,今年我們將向股東回饋13億美元,同時持續投資成長機會並進一步強化資產負債表。
Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio has consistently improved throughout the year from 3.4 times at year-end 2025 to 3.3 times at the end of the first quarter to 3.1 times at the end of the second quarter, which is over a 0.5-point improvement from just one year ago. All of this is made possible by the strength of our business, which is forecasted to generate over $7 billion of EBITDA this year, despite the recent events over the last four months.
我們的淨負債對調整後EBITDA比率在今年持續改善,從2025年年底的3.4倍,降至第一季末的3.3倍,再降至第二季末的3.1倍,較一年前改善超過0.5個百分點。即便過去四個月發生近期事件,這一切仍得以實現,皆因我們業務的強勁表現;預期今年將產生超過70億美元的EBITDA。
Operator, we're now ready to open the call for questions.
接線員,我們現在準備開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Trey Bowers, Wells Fargo.
(接線員指示) Trey Bowers,富國銀行。
Trey Bowers - Analyst
Trey Bowers - Analyst
Hey, guys. Thanks for the question. I apologize for my voice. I'm fighting off some allergies.
嗨,各位。謝謝讓我提問。抱歉我的聲音。我正在對抗一些過敏。
Just as we look at kind of the shape of the yield growth for the balance of the year, it looks like Q4 kind of implies a slightly lower number than Q3. Anything to call out there? Is that just kind of being conservative or is there something about the shape of the year that would cause Q4 to be a little bit softer?
就我們觀察今年剩餘期間殖利率成長的走勢來看,第四季似乎隱含的數字比第三季略低一些。這裡有什麼需要特別說明的嗎?這只是比較保守,還是今年的季節型態有什麼因素會讓第四季稍微偏弱?
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hey. You sound fine, Trey. So Q4, when you normalize for the CCL loyalty program, which is all in Q4, we're actually closer to 2%. So I don't think that's the normalized pattern at the end of the day.
嗨。Trey,你聽起來沒問題。所以第四季,如果把CCL忠誠計畫的影響常態化——那個影響全部都在第四季——其實我們更接近2%。所以我不認為最終的常態化走勢是那樣。
Trey Bowers - Analyst
Trey Bowers - Analyst
Okay, perfect. I didn't realize it was all Q4.
好的,完美。我之前不知道它全部都在第四季。
And then as we look out to 2027, you guys gave us kind of the impact of the war and the impact of the loyalty program. I mean, it seems like around a little bit of above the 3% number is the core of where yield has grown. Is that a good number to have in mind for next year? Or are you guys going to pause on saying anything about 2027 this early?
接著展望到 2027 年,你們先前大致說明了戰爭的影響以及忠誠計畫的影響。我的意思是,看起來殖利率成長的核心大概是在略高於 3% 的水準附近。這是明年可以放在心裡作為參考的好數字嗎?還是你們會暫時不對 2027 年在這麼早的時間點發表任何看法?
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think it's well done that, right off the bat, you tried to give guidance on '27, but we're not going to do that yet. So I'm sorry, you have to wait a little closer to '27.
我覺得你做得很好,一開始就試著要我們給出 2027 年的指引,但我們現在還不會那麼做。所以很抱歉,你得再等到更接近 2027 年一點。
Trey Bowers - Analyst
Trey Bowers - Analyst
Well, I guess if not that then, just what is the -- how much of that impact from loyalty kind of impairs '27 numbers as well?
好吧,那如果不是這個的話,那麼忠誠計畫帶來的影響——會在多大程度上也拖累 2027 年的數字?
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Yeah. So for '27, for the full year, it's like 0.4 points year over year.
對。所以就 2027 年、以全年來看,大概是年增 0.4 個百分點。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Because there's a full year of that.
因為那會反映一整年的影響。
Trey Bowers - Analyst
Trey Bowers - Analyst
Got it. Thanks so much, guys.
了解。非常感謝,各位。
Operator
Operator
Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.
Steve Wieczynski,Stifel。
Steven Wieczynski - Analyst
Steven Wieczynski - Analyst
Yeah. Hey, guys. Good morning.
對。嗨,各位。早安。
So Josh, I guess I'm a little bit confused here. If we think about your March full-year yield guidance, which was 2.75% versus the revised 1.75% yield guidance you provided this morning, I'm just trying to figure out what really has changed since March. At that point, you guys were 85% booked for the year. So just wondering, were you guys expecting a smaller impact from the war or there was a -- was there a major change in demand for certain itineraries or you guys witnessed a major uptick in cancellations?
Josh,我想我這裡有點困惑。如果我們回想你們 3 月給的全年殖利率指引是 2.75%,而今天早上你們把殖利率指引修正為 1.75%,我只是想弄清楚,自 3 月以來到底改變了什麼。當時你們全年已經訂了 85%。所以想請教,你們當時是預期戰爭的影響會比較小?還是某些航線的需求出現重大變化?或是你們看到取消量大幅上升?
But I guess the simple question -- I mean, I guess here's a simple question, Josh. Is pretty much all of the 100-basis-point cut to yields just directly tied to the Middle East, meaning the rest of your deployments have been pretty much status quo?
不過我想簡單問——我的意思是,Josh,我這裡有個簡單問題。殖利率下修 100 個基點,幾乎全部都直接與中東情勢相關嗎?也就是說,你們其他部署基本上都維持原狀?
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So let me -- I guess, I'll start by going back to March. We have been, at the time, a few weeks in to the conflict. And what we did expect at that time was there was going to be a pretty significant pause as people try to figure out what this new normal means. And what we talked about on the call is it did seem like there was kind of concentric circles as you go farther away from the conflict.
對。所以讓我——我想先回到 3 月。當時我們已經進入衝突的前幾週。我們當時確實預期會出現相當明顯的暫停期,因為大家要先弄清楚這個「新常態」代表什麼。而我們在電話會議上談到的是,似乎會呈現同心圓效應:離衝突越遠,影響越小。
So the Med region was really the thing that kind of was taking it most on the chin. It got better when you got to Northern Europe, and then it got better as you moved farther away. We certainly did not expect the conflict to last throughout the whole of our second quarter, including the Strait of Hormuz and all the knock-on impacts that the world really saw from that.
所以地中海區域是受衝擊最嚴重的。到了北歐就好一些,然後越往更遠的地方移動就越好。我們當然沒有預期衝突會延續到我們整個第二季,包括荷姆茲海峽以及全球因此看到的所有連鎖影響。
So hindsight is great, but that wasn't the expectation. So when we then think about -- to try to do this like year over year, if we go last year, last year, March was a recovery month for us. That was actually gaining steam because we had had an initial impact in February from the initial rumblings of tariffs, if you remember. And then April of last year just took a big hit with all the volatility, and then people normalized as we talked about because they started figuring out what does this mean or not mean to me and they moved on.
所以事後回頭看當然很清楚,但那不是當時的預期。因此當我們再思考——試著用年對年來看,如果回到去年,去年 3 月對我們來說是復甦的月份。那其實是在加速回升,因為如果你還記得,我們在 2 月曾受到關稅最初風聲的初步影響。然後去年 4 月因為所有的波動性而遭受重擊,接著如我們所說,大家開始正常化,因為他們開始弄清楚這對自己意味著什麼或不意味著什麼,然後就繼續往前。
This year, March was clearly impacted by the start of the war, the differing impacts like I talked about. And we did better year over year in April, but we should have done better, because last year, April was the volatility from the tariff announcements. Europe did do a good deal better in April than March, but it was not positive year over year.
今年 3 月顯然受到戰爭爆發的影響,以及我剛提到的不同程度影響。我們在 4 月的年對年表現確實更好,但其實應該要更好,因為去年 4 月是關稅公告引發的波動。歐洲在 4 月確實比 3 月好很多,但年對年仍然不是正成長。
So we were still not in a great place, and that's not surprising because the news flow didn't stop. I mean, the last three months until we turn the page a little bit in June, we'll talk about that too, this was a perpetual headline of ever-changing questions about when and how this was going to end. And people can't normalize if they can't figure out how are they going to plan their future. And we really did experience that. So May was a bit of a step backwards year over year versus April because of the comps, at the least, and then the ongoing pace of what was going on in the conflict.
所以我們仍然不在一個很理想的位置,而這也不令人意外,因為新聞動態沒有停止。我的意思是,過去三個月直到我們在 6 月稍微翻篇——我們也會談到——這一直都是不斷變化的頭條,大家不停在問這件事何時、以及如何結束。如果人們無法弄清楚要如何規劃未來,他們就無法回到常態。而我們確實經歷了這種情況。所以 5 月相較於 4 月在年對年上有點倒退,至少部分原因是比較基期,再加上衝突進展的持續節奏。
So I think the good news is June certainly seems to have turned the corner. And last week was a nice cherry on top as we kind of got the MoU signed and people started thinking about, okay, I can start planning my life again. So we do not plan for smooth sailing on a continuous basis as we get through the end of this year; I think that would be an idea. We think there will be bumps in the road as the geopolitical situation does gradually normalize. And we're doing what we can and what we should to move forward.
所以我認為好消息是,6 月看起來確實已經轉折。而上週又是錦上添花,因為我們簽了 MoU(諒解備忘錄),人們開始覺得,好吧,我可以重新開始規劃我的生活了。所以我們不會假設今年剩下的時間一路風平浪靜;我覺得那樣想不太實際。我們認為在地緣政治情勢逐步正常化的過程中,路上仍會有些顛簸。而我們正在做我們能做、也應該做的事來向前推進。
Steven Wieczynski - Analyst
Steven Wieczynski - Analyst
Okay, that's great. Thanks, Josh. And then I guess you kind of answered this a little bit, but maybe not. But you mentioned a couple of times that you've recently started to see a reversal of these headwinds in terms of booking progress. So as we think about your guidance for the rest of the year, is that assuming that reversal continues to play out? Or does your guidance still assume that these headwinds that have been in place kind of stay in place for the remainder of the year?
好的,這很棒。謝謝,Josh。然後我想你多少有回答到,但也許還沒有完全。你提到過幾次,你們最近開始看到在訂位進度方面,這些逆風正在反轉。所以當我們看你們對今年剩餘時間的指引時,這是否假設這種反轉會持續發生?還是你們的指引仍假設這些已存在的逆風會在今年剩餘時間持續存在?
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So we definitely do not expect to go backwards to what the second quarter looked like, meaning we do not expect and we're not planning on a world where the conflict is going to reignite and the straits are going to be closed, and that's what we're going to be experiencing for the next several months.
對。所以我們絕對不預期會倒退回第二季那樣的情況;也就是說,我們不預期、也不會以一個衝突會再度升溫、海峽會被封鎖、而我們接下來幾個月都要面對那種狀況的世界來做規劃。
If that happens, we'll have to see what that means for our business and what we do. I think the fact that we were able to deliver what we did in Q2 and come out the other side with what we expect to be record yields in the second half and giving the dividend play and investing in ourselves and delevering. I mean, I think it shows the strength of the business. We're not planning for perfection though.
如果真的發生,我們就得再看那對我們的業務意味著什麼,以及我們要怎麼做。我認為,我們能在第二季交出那樣的成績,並在走出來之後,預期下半年會有創紀錄的殖利率,同時推動股利策略、投資自身並降低槓桿。我的意思是,我覺得這展現了業務的韌性。不過我們也不會以一切完美為前提來規劃。
Steven Wieczynski - Analyst
Steven Wieczynski - Analyst
Okay, great. Thanks, Josh. Really appreciate it.
好的,很棒。謝謝,Josh。真的很感謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Steve.
謝謝你,Steve。
Operator
Operator
Robin Farley, UBS.
Robin Farley,瑞銀(UBS)。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Great. Thanks. Just wanted to get a little more color around -- you were 85% booked in March and just kind of thinking about the delta for the 100 basis points for the full year to be on that last 15%. Could you maybe give us a little bit of insight into that demand for the Med from North American travelers versus your European source customers just to get a little more color on that?
很好。謝謝。我只是想再多了解一些細節——你們在3月時全年已訂位85%,我在想全年增加100個基點的變動,主要就是落在最後那15%上。你能否就北美旅客對地中海航線的需求,與你們歐洲客源旅客的需求之間的差異,提供一些洞見,讓我們更有些顏色(細節)?
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robin, I'm sorry, can you do me a favor? I apologize. Can you ask the question again? Sorry about that.
Robin,不好意思,你能幫我個忙嗎?我很抱歉。你可以再問一次問題嗎?不好意思。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Oh, sure. So basically, asking for the difference in demand from European source passengers for your European source friends versus North American travelers, just trying to think about the -- you were 85% booked for the year in March, and so the 100-basis-point change is really just occurring on that last 15% that hadn't been sold as of March. And so just trying to think about how that is versus those two different customer segments of yours. Thanks.
喔,當然。基本上,我是在問你們歐洲客源旅客(你們歐洲客源市場的客人)與北美旅客之間的需求差異;我在思考——你們在3月時全年已訂位85%,所以這100個基點的變動,實際上就是發生在截至3月尚未售出的最後15%。因此只是想了解,這在你們這兩個不同客群之間是如何呈現的。謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So what I'd tell you is both our Europe segment and our North America segment for our Europe deployment were ahead in occupancy overall, which was great to see. It was significantly more ahead year over year for our North American brands, which makes sense because it's a longer-haul type of decision they're making and we were really leaning into pulling that ahead. So their occupancy advantage actually unwound more than our European brands did.
是的。我會告訴你的是,我們歐洲航線部署的歐洲客群與北美客群,在整體載客率上都領先,這點很高興看到。我們北美品牌的年對年領先幅度明顯更大,這也合理,因為他們做的是較長程的決策,而我們也確實更積極把需求往前拉。因此,他們的載客率優勢回落(消退)的幅度其實比我們歐洲品牌更大。
And so we're seeing a turn, which is great, as I mentioned. So it does seem like people are now turning the page, including for Europe. But we are ending in a place where we absolutely expect positive yields for our European deployments as we move forward.
所以我們看到需求回溫,正如我提到的,這很好。看起來大家現在確實正在翻篇(走出陰霾),包括對歐洲也是。但我們目前的落點是:隨著我們往前推進,我們絕對預期歐洲航線部署將有正向收益率(yield)。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Okay, thanks. And just as a follow-up, actually, on a different topic. I'm curious -- you mentioned that the pier is done at Celebration Key to be able to have four ships, but I don't think you've announced anything in terms of expanding what you have available -- your passenger capacity with the amenities there. Can you take four ships today and have all of those travelers there? Or when does that happen that you get the benefits of the pier being open? Thanks.
好的,謝謝。另外追問一下,其實是不同主題。我很好奇——你提到 Celebration Key 的碼頭已完工,可以同時停靠四艘船,但我不覺得你們有宣布任何擴充可用設施、也就是提升那邊可承載的旅客量。你們今天就能同時接四艘船,並讓所有旅客都上島使用嗎?或者說,碼頭開放帶來的效益會在什麼時候真正體現?謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So we'll get the benefit pretty much right away in that it gives us the flexibility to maximize that 13,000 guest footprint that we have on land. We won't have three ships. Actually, no, I think that we've already had three ships in a day, which was great. Obviously, we can't take the three biggest ships, because if we took the three biggest ships in a day, we'd be closer to 18,000 than we would 13,000.
是的。我們幾乎可以立刻受益,因為它讓我們有彈性去最大化我們在陸地上可承載的13,000名旅客規模。我們不會有三艘船。其實不對,我想我們已經有過一天三艘船,這很棒。當然,我們不能同一天接三艘最大的船,因為如果同一天接三艘最大的船,人數會更接近18,000,而不是13,000。
What it does give us, though, is the flexibility to optimize the deployments and the itineraries to mix and match the ships to make sure that we're getting as close to that 13,000 guest count as we can on a regular basis. And that's why we're expecting, when you look at 2027, on an annualized basis for Celebration Key, I think about 3.5 million people, which is a pretty good step in the right direction. We will certainly be talking more about potential land-side expansion as we make our way through the year.
不過它確實帶給我們的,是彈性去最佳化船舶部署與航程安排,透過混搭不同船型,確保我們能在常態下盡可能接近13,000名旅客的數量。這也是為什麼我們預期,當你看2027年時,以 Celebration Key 年化來看,我認為大約會有350萬人次,這是相當不錯、朝正確方向邁進的一步。我們今年在推進的過程中,肯定會更多談到陸上擴建的潛在可能性。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Okay, great. Thank you.
好的,很好。謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Ben Chaiken, Mizuho.
Ben Chaiken,瑞穗(Mizuho)。
Ben Chaiken - Executive Director
Ben Chaiken - Executive Director
Hey. How's it going? Thanks for taking my questions. I'd love to, Josh, touch on the modernization effort. It feels like you're maybe leaning into this a little bit further. Are there any statistics you can share, whether that's expected yield uplift or ROI? I guess it'd just be great to understand kind of what data or thought process gives you the confidence in this strategy. Thanks.
嗨。近來如何?謝謝讓我提問。Josh,我想談談現代化(modernization)計畫。感覺你們可能正更進一步加大力道。你們是否能分享任何數據,例如預期的收益率提升(yield uplift)或投資報酬率(ROI)?我想更了解,是什麼樣的數據或思考流程讓你們對這個策略有信心。謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. So the way we've looked at it, there's three components to these modernization programs. One is the boring stuff, which happens on any refit, which is below the water line, the things you have to do to make sure that the equipment's in good order, et cetera. Next is what we consider the fun refurbishment side, which is guest-facing public areas, cabin work, new venues for F&B experiences. That's segment two. And segment three is the ability to include new cabins.
當然。我們看待這些現代化計畫的方式,是把它拆成三個組成部分。第一個是比較無聊的部分,也就是任何改裝都會做的水線以下工程——你必須做的那些事,確保設備狀況良好等等。第二個是我們認為比較有趣的翻新面向,也就是旅客看得到的公共區域、艙房工程、以及新的餐飲(F&B)體驗場域。這是第二部分。第三部分則是納入新增艙房的能力。
We look at the latter two when we think about our ROIs and the investments we make. The cabins are easy. They pay for themselves in a couple of years. So when we find those opportunities, we exploit them. We couldn't do it on AIDA because they were so densely packed to begin with since their creation. But certainly for Holland America and other brands as we announce, those will be part of the equation.
當我們思考投資與ROI時,主要看後面兩個部分。艙房很簡單。它們在幾年內就能回本。所以當我們找到這些機會時,就會加以運用。我們無法在 AIDA 上這麼做,因為它們從一開始建造時就已經非常密集。但對於 Holland America 以及我們之後會宣布的其他品牌而言,這些都會是考量的一部分。
When we look at the guest refurbishment side, we really think about it like a new-build type of hurdle with much less cost involved. So we expect to achieve at least high-teens when we're going into those type of refurbishment decisions.
至於旅客端翻新這一塊,我們會把它視為類似新造船(new-build)的門檻要求,但成本要低得多。因此,當我們做這類翻新決策時,我們預期至少能達到十幾%的高段(high-teens)報酬率。
Ben Chaiken - Executive Director
Ben Chaiken - Executive Director
Okay, got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just touch on Celebration Key, you kind of alluded to it a moment ago in the previous question, but any update on Celebration Key from a demand perspective, but then also more importantly, how you're thinking about future phases of land development to the extent that's on your mind, which kind of sounds like it might be? Thanks.
好的,了解。這很有幫助。接著也想談談 Celebration Key。你剛剛在上一題有稍微提到,但能否更新一下 Celebration Key 的需求面狀況?更重要的是,你們如何思考未來的陸上開發階段——如果這確實在你們的考量中,聽起來似乎是?謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, so I'll take the latter quickly. It is still a lot of work to do to get there. And we don't want to get ahead of anything. So nothing to talk about yet, but certainly as soon as we feel comfortable doing that, we will.
好的,我先快速回答後半段。要走到那一步仍然還有很多工作要做。我們也不想操之過急。所以目前還沒有什麼可以談的,但一旦我們覺得時機成熟,我們一定會。
With respect to demand, it's really on almost all Caribbean capacity for Carnival. So it is pretty endemic and ingrained in what their offering is. And the feedback has been really quite strong. We solved a lot of the challenges that we had from start-up, which isn't surprising given it was a start-up, and we expect to just keep making the experience better and better for our guests. And now we have the ability to also pair that with RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay, which we are absolutely really ecstatic about. So a lot of tailwinds as we look into the future.
至於需求面,它幾乎涵蓋了嘉年華(Carnival)在加勒比海的所有運能。所以它相當普遍,且已深深融入他們的產品供給之中。市場回饋確實非常強勁。我們也解決了許多在啟動初期遇到的挑戰——這並不意外,畢竟那是啟動期——而我們預期會持續讓旅客體驗越來越好。而且現在我們也有能力把它與 RelaxAway、Half Moon Cay 搭配起來,這讓我們非常振奮。因此,展望未來有很多順風因素。
Ben Chaiken - Executive Director
Ben Chaiken - Executive Director
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Xian Siew, BNP Paribas.
Xian Siew,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Hi, guys. Thanks for the question. Maybe going back to the net yield guidance and the 100 bps reduction, I think you mentioned lower occupancy as part of that. So is it that you're kind of maybe leaving some cabins unsold rather than discounting? Or is it cancellations? Can you give us maybe a little bit more color? And then if I look ahead then, could occupancy snap back into next year? Thanks.
嗨,各位。謝謝這個問題。或許回到淨收益率(net yield)指引以及下調100個基點這件事,我想你提到較低的載客率(occupancy)是其中一部分。所以是你們可能寧可讓一些艙房不賣、而不是降價折扣嗎?還是因為取消(cancellations)?能否再多給我們一些細節?另外往後看,載客率明年有可能回升嗎?謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. So yeah, I mean, occupancy is definitely part of it. And we looked at, particularly with Q3, where we were looking at what the trends were, what our book position is and what's the right trade-off to make, we took our occupancy expectations down a couple of points for Europe. Because we think that's the right thing to do for the long-term, we recognize that that might have an impact on the onboard spending, obviously, profile since there's less souls on board, but we're managing the business for the long term, so we think that that's the right trade-off and overall the healthiest thing for the business.
當然。所以是的,我的意思是,載客率確實是其中一部分。我們特別是在看第三季(Q3)時,評估趨勢、我們的預訂進度(book position)以及該做出什麼樣的取捨,於是把歐洲的載客率預期下調了幾個百分點。因為我們認為從長期來看這是正確的做法;我們也知道這可能會影響船上消費(onboard spending)的結構,畢竟船上人少了,但我們是以長期經營來管理這門生意,所以我們認為這樣的取捨是正確的,整體而言也對業務最健康。
As far as snapping back, when we look into next year, yeah, absolutely. There's nothing to say that we shouldn't be able to achieve what we want. And I've tried to stress in my notes, and I know David did as well, we really do view this as a temporal phenomenon. And it was just a little bit of a pause in the good momentum that we've had so that it's a little bit less momentum right now, and we expect to ramp it back up as things do normalize.
至於是否會回升,當我們看向明年,是的,絕對有可能。沒有任何理由顯示我們不能達成我們想要的目標。我在備註裡一直強調,我知道David也有提到,我們確實把這視為一個暫時性的現象(temporal phenomenon)。這只是我們一直以來良好動能中的一個小停頓,所以目前動能稍微弱一些;而我們預期隨著情況正常化,動能會再拉升回來。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Great. Thanks. And then you talked a little bit about the Western Caribbean and Isla Tropicale. Just wondering if you could give us a little bit more color on what you think the opportunity is for that region as you kind of lean into it a bit more. Thanks.
很好。謝謝。另外你也稍微談到西加勒比海(Western Caribbean)以及Isla Tropicale。想請你再多分享一些,當你們更積極布局該區域時,你認為那個地區的機會是什麼?謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I mean, we have been for decades. We will continue to do that. We're really excited. In 2028, we'll have the then-newest ship for the Carnival Cruise Line brand positioned out of Galveston. And we continue to -- we will continue to invest in things like Isla Tropicale Puerta Maya, which is a beautiful gateway paradise collection destination for us. So we'll continue to do what we've been doing and try to maximize our presence in the Western Caribbean as well.
是的。我的意思是,我們幾十年來一直都在那裡經營。我們也會持續這麼做。我們非常興奮。到2028年,我們會把當時嘉年華郵輪(Carnival Cruise Line)品牌最新的船部署在加爾維斯頓(Galveston)出發。而且我們也會持續——我們將持續投資像Isla Tropicale Puerta Maya這樣的項目,這對我們而言是一個很美的「Gateway Paradise Collection」目的地。所以我們會繼續做我們一直在做的事,並且也會努力把我們在西加勒比海的布局效益最大化。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Great. Thanks. Good luck.
很好。謝謝。祝順利。
Operator
Operator
Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.
Matthew Boss,摩根大通(JPMorgan)。
Matthew Boss - Analyst
Matthew Boss - Analyst
Great. Thanks. So Josh, with your booking curve the furthest out on record, as you cited, could you elaborate on demand for '27 sailings for Europe, as you noted, people turning the page there, and any notable trends in the Caribbean? Or maybe just if I put it all together, it sounds like, and I just wanted to confirm, no change at all in your confidence for moderate yield growth multi-year as you outlined as part of the PROPEL plan.
很好。謝謝。Josh,你提到你們的預訂曲線(booking curve)是史上最遠期的;能否談談你所說的歐洲2027年航次需求——大家在那邊「翻頁」往後看——以及加勒比海是否有任何值得注意的趨勢?或者把它們綜合起來看,聽起來——我只是想確認——你對於如PROPEL計畫所概述的、未來多年溫和收益率(yield)成長的信心完全沒有改變,對嗎?
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, no change in my confidence for that. So it's early days for 2027. We wanted to give you a little bit of color that -- to kind of highlight the temporal nature of this, the fact that our European bookings over the same time that we saw a really big kind of pause for a lot of folks for 2026, we saw almost doubling down for 2027, which we thought was a great sign. Overall, we are at historic highs for price and occupancy for 2027, and we'll work hard to improve our position over time.
是的,我對此的信心沒有改變。所以2027年還算早期。我們想多給你們一些背景——用來凸顯這件事的暫時性:也就是在我們看到很多人對2026年出現很大的「暫停」的同一段時間裡,我們看到大家對2027年反而幾乎是加倍下注(almost doubling down),我們覺得這是很好的訊號。整體而言,2027年的價格與載客率都在歷史高位,我們也會努力隨時間推進持續改善我們的預訂進度。
Matthew Boss - Analyst
Matthew Boss - Analyst
Great. And then, David, with your net cruise cost ex-fuel guidance of 2% to 3% for this year, it's coming in roughly 100 basis points more favorable relative to your initial forecast. Do you see the cost savings this year as structural? Just wanted to confirm potential reinvestments that we should think about or just anything multi-year that would change the low-single-digit cost CAGR that was embedded in the PROPEL plan.
很好。另外,David,你們今年不含燃油的淨郵輪成本(net cruise cost ex-fuel)指引為2%到3%,相較於你們最初的預測,大約再好100個基點。你認為今年的成本節省是結構性的嗎?也想確認一下,我們應該考慮哪些可能的再投資(reinvestments),或是任何會改變PROPEL計畫中所隱含的低個位數成本CAGR(年複合成長率)的多年期因素。
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Everything that -- the overwhelming majority of what we're doing is for the long term. We found lots of -- hundreds of little things that we can change over time, which will improve our cost base. I mean, there's things like -- the brands have been optimizing the number of forklifts that they use on embarkation day. When you go from 14 to 13 forklifts and you can make a change on multiple ships over multiple activities, it saves hundreds of thousands of dollars in a year, and there's lots of ideas and things like that.
我們所做的事情中,絕大多數都是著眼於長期。我們找到了很多——數以百計的小地方——可以隨時間調整,進而改善我們的成本基礎。我的意思是,有些事情像是——各品牌一直在優化登船日(embarkation day)使用的堆高機(forklifts)數量。當你把堆高機從14台降到13台,並且能在多艘船、跨多項作業上推動這樣的改變,一年就能省下數十萬美元;而且像這樣的點子和做法還有很多。
We've also been working with many of our suppliers and vendors to look for reduced rates. As everybody implements AI and gains efficiency in their business, we do expect fee reductions as a result of that. So hundreds of items across the business which we view as permanent cost savings in the future.
我們也一直在與許多供應商與承包商合作,尋找更低的費率。隨著大家導入AI並提升營運效率,我們確實預期費用會因此下降。所以,整個業務中有數百個項目,我們把它們視為未來的永久性成本節省。
Matthew Boss - Analyst
Matthew Boss - Analyst
That's great color. Best of luck.
這些補充很有幫助。祝順利。
Operator
Operator
James Hardiman, Citi.
James Hardiman,花旗(Citi)。
Sean Wagner - Analyst
Sean Wagner - Analyst
Hi. This is Sean Wagner on for James. Similar to the first question about yield impacts in 2027 and understanding that it's too early to give us 2027 guidance, but with all the moving parts and one-time pieces called out in the 2026 cost guidance, how should we think about these cost items into next year? I assume you get all of the 30 bps of elevated costs related to the Middle East back, but can you sort of walk us through how the timing of costs and partial operating expenses for the two exclusive destinations net out next year?
嗨。我是代James提問的Sean Wagner。類似第一個問題關於2027年收益率影響;我也理解現在要給2027年指引還太早,但在2026年成本指引中提到的各種變動因素與一次性項目之下,我們應該如何看待這些成本項目延伸到明年?我假設與中東相關的、提高的30個基點成本你們會全部拿回來,但你能否帶我們走一遍:兩個專屬目的地(exclusive destinations)的成本時點與部分營運費用(partial operating expenses)在明年如何相互抵消(net out)?
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Yeah. So there's a lot of puts and takes for 2027. But at this point in time, I think it's a little premature because many decisions have yet to be made for 2027. And so like the guidance, the yield guidance that Josh referred to, you'll have to wait a little bit closer to the end of the year to get better color on that. But as we said in our long-term PROPEL model and guidance, we've got great cost discipline built in the business, and we do expect to utilize that discipline to control costs over time.
是的。所以2027年有很多此消彼長(puts and takes)的因素。但就目前而言,我認為現在談還有點太早,因為2027年很多決策都還沒做。因此就像Josh提到的收益率指引一樣,你們可能得等到更接近年底時,才能得到更清楚的資訊。不過如同我們在長期PROPEL模型與指引中所說,我們在業務中已建立很好的成本紀律,我們也預期會運用這份紀律,隨時間推進來控管成本。
Sean Wagner - Analyst
Sean Wagner - Analyst
Okay, fair enough. And then I guess you spoke on bookings and pricing on 2027 sailings being up since March. How does the overall 2027 booking curve compared to 2026 at this point? And then I guess to the point of the substantial increase in European bookings for 2027, is that increase primarily first half weighted?
好,這樣說也合理。然後我想你也提到,自3月以來,2027年航次的預訂與定價都有所上升。就目前這個時間點來看,整體2027年的預訂曲線和2026年相比如何?另外,關於2027年歐洲預訂大幅增加這點,這個增幅是否主要集中在上半年?
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So yeah, overall, our booking position for 2027 is at historical highs for price and occupancy. So we're setting ourselves up well, so still a lot of work to do. I don't have the split, to be honest with you, for Europe between first half and second half, so we can try to get back to you on that. But overall, we feel like we're setting ourselves up as best as can be and we will see how we can progress.
是的,整體而言,我們2027年的預訂狀況在價格與載客率方面都處於歷史高位。所以我們的布局很不錯,但仍然還有很多工作要做。老實說,我手上沒有歐洲上半年與下半年的拆分數據,我們可以再回覆你。但總體來看,我們覺得已經盡可能把自己放在最有利的位置,接下來就看我們能如何推進。
Sean Wagner - Analyst
Sean Wagner - Analyst
Okay. Thanks a lot.
好的。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.
Lizzie Dove,高盛。
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. So as it relates to this year, it sounds like for the guidance cut on yield, most of that, maybe all of it is Europe. But could you maybe elaborate a little more on Caribbean trends? How would you characterize the kind of backdrop and competitive environment there? And how did the conflict or higher airfares from the conflict impact that region versus Europe?
嗨。早安。謝謝讓我提問。就今年而言,聽起來這次對收益率指引的下修,大部分、甚至可能全部都在歐洲。但你能否再多談一點加勒比海的趨勢?你會如何形容那邊的整體背景與競爭環境?以及衝突造成的影響或因衝突導致的機票上漲,對該區域相較於歐洲的影響如何?
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. So I think it's fair to say, holistically, nothing was immune because there were certainly people at any price point for any deployment that this changed their decision-making process. But clearly, as we talked about, for us at least, it was really centered primarily in Europe and then lesser impact as it got farther away.
當然。我想可以說,從整體來看,沒有任何市場能完全免疫,因為在任何價格帶、任何部署下,都確實有人因此改變了決策流程。但很明顯,如同我們所談到的,至少對我們而言,影響主要集中在歐洲,距離越遠影響就越小。
The actual booking trajectory of the Caribbean didn't take much of a movement as we went into the war, during the war, and now have come out. So we just seem to be chugging along. I think it's fair to say we're chugging along where the capacity increase outside of us is 27% over two years. So as I've said before, give me two options, one is no growth and the other is 27%, I'll take the no growth. But that's already been baked into our planning and how we've been positioning ourselves.
加勒比海的實際預訂走勢,在戰爭爆發前、戰爭期間,以及現在走出來之後,都沒有太大的波動。所以我們看起來就是穩穩地往前走。我想也可以說,我們是在一個「除我們之外的運能在兩年內增加27%」的環境下穩步前進。所以我之前也說過,給我兩個選項,一個是零成長,另一個是27%的成長,我會選零成長。但這些都已經納入我們的規劃,以及我們如何定位自身的策略之中。
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Got it. Thank you. And then I guess just going back to Europe, one thing I'm trying to square is we had one of your peers say Europe trends had turned in late April. It sounds like yours are kind of starting to turn now.
了解。謝謝。然後回到歐洲,我想釐清的一點是:我們有一位同業說歐洲趨勢在4月下旬就已經轉向。聽起來你們的狀況是現在才開始轉向。
So is there anything that you would flag from, I don't know, maybe more of a brand perspective? I know we've discussed like local Europe versus US, but anything whether it be P&O, AIDA versus Costa that you'd flag in terms of how Europe has trended?
所以,從品牌角度來看,有沒有什麼你會特別提醒的?我知道我們討論過像是歐洲本地客 vs. 美國客,但在歐洲趨勢方面,有沒有像P&O、AIDA相對於Costa之類,你會特別指出的差異?
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Well, I certainly wouldn't speak for any of our competitors, so I can just speak for ourselves. And I'm not sure if you heard what I said earlier on the call, but May, even for Europe, was definitely a good amount better than April -- April was a good amount better than May. But it still didn't mean it was going great.
是的。我當然不會替任何競爭對手發言,我只能談我們自己。我不確定你是否有聽到我在電話會議前面說的,但5月,即便在歐洲,也確實比4月好不少——4月也比5月好不少。但這仍不代表情況非常好。
So you could say for us, yeah, it was recovering in April versus where we were in March, which was really a kind of a cardiac arrest for a little while. But it still wasn't great. And April, we did have much easier comps year over year.
所以你可以說,對我們而言,是的,4月相較於3月是在復甦;3月那段時間真的像是短暫的「心臟驟停」。但即便如此,仍然不算好。而且4月我們的年對年比較基期也容易得多。
And May, it was just that continuation of the news flow and fuel prices and will Europe have fuel to fly my plane back home. I mean, all those things, they didn't really die down. And so it did definitely have an impact, at least for us in May, particularly with folks who were looking to fly. So that's the best I can tell you about ourselves.
到了5月,新聞流、燃油價格,以及「歐洲會不會有燃料讓我的飛機飛回家」這些疑慮持續延燒。我的意思是,這些事情並沒有真正降溫。因此,至少對我們而言,5月確實受到影響,特別是對那些需要搭飛機出行的人。這就是我能就我們自身提供的最佳說明。
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Thanks, Josh.
謝謝,Josh。
Operator
Operator
Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.
Conor Cunningham,Melius Research。
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Hi, everyone. Thank you. Just on Celebration Key, I know you talked about the ramp and the goal for next year, but I think you start to sell itineraries to other brands that start to touch there. I think Princess itineraries start to open up in November or something like that. So if you could just talk about how different brands are going to be impacted. Maybe you can just talk about the opportunity at the different brands for Celebration Key in general. Thank you.
大家好。謝謝。關於Celebration Key,我知道你談過爬坡期以及明年的目標,但我想你們也開始把會停靠那裡的其他品牌行程拿出來賣了。我記得公主郵輪(Princess)的行程大概在11月左右開始開賣之類的。所以如果可以的話,請談談不同品牌會如何受到影響。也請你概括談談Celebration Key對各品牌的整體機會。謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, sure. So definitely, opportunities -- we're actually going to -- I think AIDA is technically the first brand that's going to touch down outside of Carnival Cruise Line. So they get the mantle, but that's fairly irregular as opposed to what Princess is going to be doing, which is more scheduled throughout the winter.
好的,當然。確實有機會——我們其實會——我想AIDA在嘉年華郵輪(Carnival Cruise Line)之外,技術上會是第一個停靠的品牌。所以他們會先拔得頭籌,但那相對不規則;相較之下,公主郵輪在冬季會有更固定的排程。
Right now, I'd say it's great, but it's a tail of the dog, because for the most part, Carnival Cruise Line is taking up most of it. But we certainly have been building out itineraries for as many brands, as many ships to be able to benefit from Celebration Key as possible, and we have the same approach for not only Celebration Key, but for RelaxAway, Half Moon, and just try to maximize the impact that we can make for the company.
就目前而言,我會說這很棒,但有點像「尾巴在搖狗」,因為大部分的量主要還是由嘉年華郵輪承接。不過我們確實一直在為盡可能多的品牌、盡可能多的船舶規劃行程,讓大家都能從Celebration Key受益;而且我們對不只是Celebration Key,也包括RelaxAway、Half Moon,都採取同樣的做法,盡力把我們能為公司帶來的影響最大化。
The limiting factor certainly on Celebration Key is that land side. So hopefully, as we make our way through the latter half of this decade, we'll be able to make some inroads on giving ourselves even more opportunity.
Celebration Key的限制因素,確實在於陸上端的承載能力。所以希望在本十年後半段推進的過程中,我們能取得一些進展,為自己創造更多機會。
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Okay, that's helpful. And then I'm sorry to bring it back to '27, just there's a lot of moving parts. So I think we all understand that that second-half comps are now a little bit easier than they were before. But you made the parallel to the trade and tariff situation in 2025. So that seemed to linger on, I think, within your yield headwinds for a little bit longer than what I think we all kind of had anticipated. So when you booked stuff, and I presumably think that's the first-half commentary during this whole timeframe, did your yields change meaningfully in any direction? Just trying to understand the transitory part of the whole thing. Thank you.
好的,這很有幫助。然後不好意思又把話題拉回到2027年,只是變數很多。所以我想我們都理解,下半年比較基期現在比之前稍微容易一些。但你把它類比到2025年的貿易與關稅情況。那看起來在你們的收益率逆風中延續的時間,比我們原先預期的要更久一些。所以當你們在這段期間做預訂(我推測你指的是上半年的評論),你們的收益率在任何方向上有沒有出現顯著變化?我只是想理解整件事的「短暫性」部分。謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I had you until you asked the last part of the question, to be honest with you.
老實說,你問到最後那一段之前我都還跟得上。
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Yeah. It's like you're talking about how it's transitory. And I understand that the worst is over and the yields are -- your bookings are starting to improve. But presumably, you've booked some 2027 bookings in the first half during this timeframe. Did that -- should we expect a headwind to first half of 2027 next year just given things were booked now?
是的。就像你在談這是暫時性的。我理解最糟的情況已經過去,而且殖利率——你們的預訂開始改善。但推測在這段期間,你們在上半年應該也接到了一些 2027 年的預訂。那是否——考量到現在就先訂了,明年 2027 年上半年是否應該預期會有逆風?
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I got you. You're certainly right about last year. The flavor of that crisis had a lingering impact. As far as this goes, I think it's safe to say we're still early days to figure out exactly how much, if and which way, this is all coming together for 2027. So I think it's a little bit premature. Clearly, there's some folks who are not booking, who just went through the quarter and didn't book, and there is an impact there. I think the good news is, overall, for 2027, our bookings were up year over year, which is a good sign.
我明白你的意思。你對去年那件事的看法當然沒錯。那場危機的性質確實帶來了延續性的影響。就這次而言,我認為可以說,我們仍處於早期階段,還在釐清這對 2027 年究竟會有多大影響、是否有影響,以及會往哪個方向發展。所以我覺得現在下結論還有點太早。很明顯,有些人在本季結束後沒有下訂,確實會造成影響。但好消息是,整體而言,2027 年的預訂量年增,這是個好跡象。
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst
Okay, fair enough. Thank you.
好,這樣說也合理。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Didora, Bank of America.
美國銀行的 Andrew Didora。
Andrew Didora - Analyst
Andrew Didora - Analyst
Hey. Good morning, everyone. I guess just one last question on kind of the occupancy point in the back half of the year. Just embedded in your 3Q net yield guidance, should we be factoring in flat year-over-year occupancy, down occupancy, or up occupancy?
嗨。各位早安。我想就今年下半年入住率這點再問最後一個問題。在你們第三季淨殖利率指引中隱含的假設,我們應該納入入住率年比持平、下滑,還是上升?
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer
Yeah. So it's probably relatively flat year over year. Our original thought would be that we would perhaps get a bit more than we did in the prior year. But given the circumstances, I'd say it's going to be close to flat.
是的。所以大概是年比相對持平。我們原先的想法是,可能會比去年多一點。但考量目前情況,我會說應該會接近持平。
Andrew Didora - Analyst
Andrew Didora - Analyst
Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. And then, Josh, just you continue to double down on kind of the limited fleet growth and new hardware. I guess what are maybe the top two or three opportunities that Carnival has that can help keep your longer-term net yield growth sort of in that moderate range or, I'll call it, above inflationary range over the next several years as you have a little bit more modest fleet growth? Thank you.
好,這很有幫助。謝謝。另外,Josh,你持續強調船隊成長有限以及新硬體。我想問,當你們未來幾年船隊成長較為溫和時,嘉年華有哪些前兩到三個機會,能幫助你們讓長期淨殖利率成長維持在溫和區間,或我稱之為高於通膨的區間?謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, thanks. Honestly, I think a lot of it's just blocking and tackling and doing well across the space in our commercial execution.
是的,謝謝。老實說,我認為很大一部分就是把基本功做好,在商業執行上把各個環節都做到位。
With respect to things that we can introduce to help everybody, we've got a lot of the foundation in place already with the destination footprint that we've already got that we can now leverage fully. As we look forward, I think that's going to help. I think our brands are truly world class. They've been doing a lot to show significant improvement in their yields, most of which had no new builds. And so we just got to keep doing what we've been doing and deliver.
就我們能推出、用來幫助整體表現的事情而言,我們其實已經具備很多基礎,包括我們既有的目的地版圖,現在可以更充分地加以運用。展望未來,我認為這會帶來幫助。我認為我們的品牌確實是世界級的。它們在提升殖利率方面已展現顯著改善,其中多數並沒有新造船。所以我們只要持續做我們一直在做的事並交出成果。
We've got time for one more, operator.
我們還有時間再問一題,接線員。
Operator
Operator
Anthony Berni, Jefferies.
Jefferies 的 Anthony Berni。
Anthony Berni - Analyst
Anthony Berni - Analyst
Hey. Good morning. This is Anthony on for David Katz. Thanks for taking our question.
嗨。早安。我是 Anthony,代替 David Katz 提問。謝謝讓我們提問。
Just one quick one on the capital returns. I know you've done the dividend and the buyback. Just curious if you expect the dividend to kind of remain constant or grow over time. And for repurchases, is the level that you've been doing over the first half representative of what you kind of expect for the second half? Or how should we think about that? Thank you.
關於資本回饋我有個簡短問題。我知道你們已經做了股利和庫藏股回購。想請教你們是否預期股利會大致維持不變,或是會隨時間成長。至於回購,你們上半年進行的水準是否代表你們對下半年的大致預期?或者我們應該如何看待?謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Well, I'm only one of many Board members, and this is a Board decision about the dividend. I do think it'd be fair to say that a moderate increase as we look forward is rational and reasonable, but ultimately, we had to do that with the Board in full. And I think we'll do that in a very measured and responsible way.
當然。嗯,我只是董事會眾多成員之一,而股利是董事會的決策。我認為可以合理地說,展望未來,適度增加是合乎理性且合理的,但最終仍需由董事會全體共同決定。我想我們會以非常審慎且負責任的方式來做。
With respect to the buybacks, I've said we got the initial authorization for $2.5 billion. We certainly don't expect to spend $2.5 billion this year. At an annualized rate, $450 million a quarter would probably be too much to expect, at least on our current thinking. But we have been opportunistic and we'll continue to be opportunistic, so we still have plenty of headroom as we look forward with the cash that we're generating and the metrics that we're trying to achieve. So I expect more to come, but I wouldn't be wedded to annualizing this quarter's amount.
至於回購,我之前說過我們取得了最初 25 億美元的授權。我們當然不預期今年會花到 25 億美元。若以年化來看,每季 4.5 億美元可能會是過高的期待,至少以我們目前的想法是如此。但我們一直採取機會主義策略,未來也會持續如此;因此,隨著我們產生的現金以及我們想達成的指標,往前看我們仍有很大的操作空間。所以我預期後續還會有更多,但我不會把本季的金額直接年化當作固定基準。
Anthony Berni - Analyst
Anthony Berni - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Josh Weinstein - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, thank you very much, everybody. I hope you all have very pleasant summers. I hope you're sailing with us, and we'll see you or talk to you in September. Take care.
那麼,非常感謝各位。希望大家都有個非常愉快的夏天。也希望你們能搭乘我們的郵輪,我們九月再見或再通話。保重。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線,感謝您的參與。