嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2018 earnings conference call.

大家早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2018 年第四季度財報電話會議。

I am Arnold Donald, President and CEO of Carnival Corporation and plc.

我是 Carnival Corporation and plc 的總裁兼首席執行官 Arnold Donald。

Thank you all for joining us this morning, and a sincere happy holidays to everybody.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們，並真誠地祝大家節日快樂。

Today, I am joined by our Chairman, Micky Arison; by David Bernstein, our Chief Financial Officer; and by Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

今天，我們的主席 Micky Arison 加入了我的行列；我們的首席財務官 David Bernstein；以及投資者關係高級副總裁 Beth Roberts。

Before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking; therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

在我開始之前，請注意我們對這次電話會議的一些評論將是前瞻性的；因此，我必須向您介紹今天新聞稿中的警示性聲明。

Collectively, our people, our fellow team members have achieved a very important milestone, and I'd like to take my prepared remarks on this call as an opportunity to share it with all of you.

總的來說，我們的員工，我們的團隊成員已經取得了一個非常重要的里程碑，我想藉此機會與大家分享我在這次電話會議上準備的發言。

Five years ago, we established a target to deliver by the end of 2018 double-digit return on invested capital.

五年前，我們制定了到 2018 年底實現兩位數的投資資本回報率的目標。

I am very pleased to share that we have achieved double-digit return on invested capital, while finishing the year with another record quarter of adjusted earnings, leading to the highest full year earnings in our company's history, our fifth consecutive year of adjusted earnings growth and third consecutive record year.

我很高興地與大家分享，我們實現了兩位數的投資資本回報率，同時以另一個創紀錄的季度調整後收益結束了這一年，實現了我們公司歷史上最高的全年收益，我們的調整後收益連續第五年增長和連續第三年創紀錄。

I sincerely thank our 120,000 team members who went above and beyond to deliver for our shareholders a more than doubling in return on invested capital and near tripling of adjusted earnings per share in just 5 years through executing on our strategy to create demand in excess of measured capacity growth, while leveraging our industry-leading scale.

我衷心感謝我們的 120,000 名團隊成員，他們通過執行我們創造超出預期需求的戰略，在短短 5 年內為我們的股東帶來超過一倍的投資資本回報和接近三倍的調整後每股收益產能增長，同時利用我們行業領先的規模。

It was their efforts that drove a $12 billion increase in market capitalization and the return of $11 billion to shareholders through strong dividend growth and opportunistic share repurchases, all of which was accomplished, while also achieving A minus and A3 credit ratings from S&P and Moody's, respectively.

正是他們的努力推動了 120 億美元的市值增長，並通過強勁的股息增長和機會性股票回購為股東帶來了 110 億美元的回報，所有這些都完成了，同時還獲得了標準普爾和穆迪的 A 減和 A3 信用評級，分別。

It was also their efforts that enabled us to execute despite a plethora of headwinds, like rising geopolitical tensions all over the world, including the attacks in France and Germany impacting people's willingness to travel; actual geopolitical conflicts affecting our ability to retain some of our high-yielding destinations, like Turkey and Egypt for a period of time; there were disease scares and there were natural disasters like Hurricane Maria and Typhoon Talim; disruptions in China like with the trade and stoppage and travel to Korea; economic malaise in some key countries in Europe, including uncertainty around Brexit; and temporary overconcentration of industry supply at times in regions like the Caribbean.

也正是他們的努力使我們能夠在諸多不利因素的情況下執行，例如世界各地不斷加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢，包括法國和德國的襲擊影響了人們的旅行意願；實際的地緣政治衝突影響我們在一段時間內保留一些高收益目的地的能力，例如土耳其和埃及；有疾病恐慌，還有颶風瑪麗亞和颱風塔利姆等自然災害；中國的中斷，例如貿易和停止以及前往韓國的旅行；歐洲一些主要國家的經濟萎靡不振，包括英國退歐的不確定性；在加勒比海等地區，工業供應有時會暫時過度集中。

These headwinds caused consternation, in some cases even doubt amongst the investment community that we would, in fact, deliver.

這些不利因素引起了恐慌，在某些情況下，投資界甚至懷疑我們實際上是否會兌現。

Again, I'd like to thank our team globally.

再次，我要感謝我們的全球團隊。

It was their passion and their commitment that overcame all of that to still perform.

正是他們的熱情和他們的承諾克服了所有這些，仍然表現出色。

And when combined with the strong support of our valued travel agent partners, enabled our record-breaking results.

再加上我們尊貴的旅行社合作夥伴的大力支持，我們取得了創紀錄的成績。

While the journey to sustained double-digit return on invested capital is built on the foundation of exceeding guest expectations every single day, we have had contributions from many areas that helped pave the way to double-digit return on invested capital and have left us better positioned to sustain and grow return on invested capital over time.

雖然實現持續兩位數的投資資本回報的旅程建立在每天都超出客人期望的基礎上，但我們在許多領域做出了貢獻，為實現兩位數的投資回報鋪平了道路，讓我們變得更好隨著時間的推移，能夠維持和增加投資資本的回報。

While the list of areas that will continue to pay dividends going forward is very long, I'd like to highlight just a few.

雖然未來將繼續派發紅利的領域清單很長，但我想強調幾個。

Essential to our core strategy is creating demand in excess of measured capacity growth by increasing consideration for cruise globally and continuing to enhance our already high guest experience.

對我們的核心戰略至關重要的是，通過增加對全球郵輪的考慮並繼續提升我們已經很高的客戶體驗，創造超過可衡量的運力增長的需求。

Five years ago, if you had not yet cruised, there was little press coverage that would make you want to take your first cruise.

五年前，如果您還沒有巡航，幾乎沒有新聞報導會讓您想進行第一次巡航。

Our proactive public relations effort has clearly had a positive impact.

我們積極的公共關係努力顯然產生了積極的影響。

While we believe those efforts have benefited the entire cruise industry, today, our brands consistently capture over 75% of all positive media in our industry, and the absolute number of positive media mentions are multiples of what they were just five years ago.

雖然我們相信這些努力使整個郵輪行業受益，但今天，我們的品牌始終佔據我們行業所有正面媒體的 75% 以上，正面媒體提及的絕對數量是五年前的倍數。

Our brand's marketing efforts have shared the spotlight with many well-known personalities who brought with them a greater audience of potential new to cruise to our respective brands, like Oprah Winfrey for Holland America, Shaq for Carnival Cruise Line, Shakira for Costa and Her Majesty, The Queen, for P&O Cruises, just to name a few.

我們品牌的營銷努力與許多知名人士分享了聚光燈，他們為我們各自品牌帶來了更多潛在的新人，如荷蘭美國的奧普拉溫弗瑞、嘉年華郵輪公司的沙克、歌詩達和女王陛下的夏奇拉，女王，對於 P&O Cruises，僅舉幾例。

Our brands were featured on television programs all around the world, including The New Celebrity Apprentice; The Ellen DeGeneres show; the ITV reality show, The Cruise, in its sixth season in the U.K. and Ant & Dec also in the U.K. But we didn't stop there.

我們的品牌出現在世界各地的電視節目中，包括 The New Celebrity Apprentice；艾倫·德傑尼勒斯秀； ITV 真人秀節目 The Cruise 已在英國播出第六季，Ant & Dec 也在英國播出。但我們並沒有就此止步。

We created our own original content TV programs, which have already reached more than 400 million views and counting, airing on major U.S. networks, including ABC, NBC, Telemundo and Univision.

我們創建了自己的原創內容電視節目，在美國主要網絡（包括 ABC、NBC、Telemundo 和 Univision）上的觀看次數和數量已經超過 4 億。

Our proprietary shows, The Voyager with Josh Garcia, Ocean Treks with Jeff Corwin, Vacation Creation and for the Spanish-speaking market, La Gran Sorpresa, are among the most popular travel series on TV using authentic storytelling to share the powerful way travel by sea connects, people, places and cultures around the world.

我們的專有節目，Josh Garcia 的航海者，Jeff Corwin 的 Ocean Treks，Vacation Creation 和西班牙語市場的 La Gran Sorpresa，都是電視上最受歡迎的旅遊系列，使用真實的故事講述海上旅行的強大方式連接世界各地的人、地方和文化。

All of these programs and more can also be found on our own television network, OceanView, or our own mobile app, OceanView Mobile.

所有這些節目和更多節目也可以在我們自己的電視網絡 OceanView 或我們自己的移動應用程序 OceanView Mobile 上找到。

Through our history-making voyage to Cuba, we captured over 55 billion very positive media impressions and became the first U.S. cruise operator in over 40 years to bring U.S. cruise guests directly from the U.S. to Cuba.

通過我們創造歷史的古巴之旅，我們獲得了超過 550 億次非常積極的媒體印象，並成為 40 多年來第一家將美國郵輪客人直接從美國帶到古巴的美國郵輪運營商。

At the same time, opening up an exciting new destination option for our guests through now 3 of our brands, Carnival Cruise Line, Holland America Line and Seabourn, with more planned in the future.

同時，通過我們的 3 個品牌，嘉年華郵輪公司、荷美郵輪公司和 Seabourn，為我們的客人開闢一個令人興奮的新目的地選擇，並在未來計劃更多。

We made global news through the historic signing of a joint venture agreement with CSSC, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, forming a local cruise operating company.

我們通過與中國船舶工業集團公司（CSSC）歷史性地簽署合資協議，組建當地的郵輪運營公司，成為全球新聞。

More importantly, we forged a significant long-term relationship to help build the cruise industry in China, which over time has the potential to become the largest source market for cruise in the world.

更重要的是，我們建立了重要的長期合作關係，以幫助建立中國的郵輪業，隨著時間的推移，中國有潛力成為全球最大的郵輪客源市場。

And we made history with the debut of our Ocean Medallion, our patented guest experience innovation, which enabled us to become the first travel company ever to be asked to keynote at CES, the largest technology trade show in the world.

我們憑藉我們的專利客戶體驗創新 Ocean Medallion 的首次亮相創造了歷史，這使我們成為有史以來第一家被要求在全球最大的技術貿易展 CES 上發表主題演講的旅遊公司。

So far, Ocean Medallion has received 36 billion favorable media impressions for our company, and has won recognition globally for our innovation effort, including being recognized by Fast Company as one of the top 10 most innovative companies in the travel category.

到目前為止，Ocean Medallion 已經為我們公司獲得了 360 億次媒體好評，並因其創新努力贏得了全球認可，包括被 Fast Company 評為旅遊類別中最具創新力的 10 家公司之一。

While so far our ocean efforts have increased awareness for cruise globally, particularly in new forums, like technology forums, the opportunity going forward has the potential to be even greater.

雖然到目前為止，我們的海洋工作已經提高了全球對郵輪的認識，特別是在技術論壇等新論壇上，但未來的機會可能會更大。

We believe the Medallion class experience can elevate the guest experience by enabling the delivery of more personalized guest services, including features like expedited boarding, keyless stateroom entry, on-demand food and beverage delivery just about anywhere, anytime, crystal clear and easy-to-follow wayfinding and the absolute best Wi-Fi at sea.

我們相信 Medallion 艙位體驗可以通過提供更加個性化的賓客服務來提升賓客體驗，包括快速登機、無鑰匙進入客艙、隨時隨地按需提供食品和飲料等功能，清晰明了且易於操作- 跟隨尋路和海上絕對最佳的 Wi-Fi。

In the first quarter of full ship operation onboard Caribbean Princess, our Medallion class experience is clearly resonating with guests and with crew.

在加勒比公主號全船運營的第一季度，我們的尊爵級體驗顯然引起了客人和船員的共鳴。

And we now have Medallion class activated for all guests on our second ship, Regal Princess.

我們現在為我們的第二艘船富豪公主號上的所有客人激活了獎章等級。

But ocean is just one of many technology-enabled milestones.

但海洋只是眾多技術里程碑之一。

Across our other brands, we're in the process of rolling out new technology, both onboard and shoreside, including enhanced targeted marketing, improved CRM capabilities, new mobile app and redesigned website, which collectively contribute to enhanced guest experience, and an empowerment of our travel agent partners, increased revenues and reduced cost of sales.

在我們的其他品牌中，我們正在推出船上和岸上的新技術，包括增強的針對性營銷、改進的 CRM 功能、新的移動應用程序和重新設計的網站，這些共同有助於增強客戶體驗，並增強我們的旅行社合作夥伴，增加了收入並降低了銷售成本。

Our state-of-the-art revenue management tool, YODA, has been deployed across half the company to facilitate further yield growth, particularly in the second half of 2019 and beyond.

我們最先進的收入管理工具 YODA 已部署到一半的公司，以促進產量的進一步增長，特別是在 2019 年下半年及以後。

Our cruise brand continues to make great strides in furthering the guest experience, whether through new destinations like Cuba, Amber Cove, new terminals, like Barcelona or Dubai.

我們的郵輪品牌繼續在提升賓客體驗方面取得長足進步，無論是通過古巴、琥珀灣等新目的地，還是巴塞羅那或迪拜等新航站樓。

Our multibillion-dollar fleet-wide reinvestment efforts, like Fun Ship 2.0 for Carnival, are signature of excellence for Holland America.

我們數十億美元的船隊再投資努力，例如嘉年華的 Fun Ship 2.0，是荷蘭美國卓越的標誌。

Of course, our ongoing fleet replenishment efforts are central to our strategy to create demand in excess of measured capacity growth.

當然，我們正在進行的機隊補給工作對於我們創造超過測量容量增長的需求的戰略至關重要。

Over the last 5 years, we welcomed 12 state-of-the-art larger, more efficient vessels, at the same time exiting 9 less efficient ships from our fleet, building a more return resilient fleet.

在過去的 5 年中，我們迎來了 12 艘最先進的更大、更高效的船舶，同時從我們的船隊中淘汰了 9 艘效率較低的船舶，打造了一支更具回報彈性的船隊。

And we leveraged our scale to reduce cost, achieving cumulative savings of over $350 million in just 5 years, and we believe we have more runway ahead to continue the momentum.

我們利用我們的規模來降低成本，在短短 5 年內累計節省了超過 3.5 億美元，我們相信我們還有更多的發展空間來保持這種勢頭。

We also had many notable achievements in our sustainability efforts, including the opening of our significantly expanded Arison Maritime Center in the Netherlands, delivering state-of-the-art maritime training through cutting-edge bridge and engine room simulators and curriculum.

我們在可持續發展方面也取得了許多顯著成就，包括在荷蘭開設了大幅擴建的阿里森海事中心，通過尖端的橋樑和機艙模擬器和課程提供最先進的海事培訓。

And we opened 3 state-of-the-art fleet operation centers around the globe to provide real-time support, ship to shore 24 hours a day.

我們在全球開設了 3 個最先進的船隊運營中心，以提供實時支持，每天 24 小時將船送到岸上。

On the environmental front, we exceeded our target unit fuel consumption reduction of 25% 3 years ahead of schedule.

在環保方面，我們提前 3 年超額完成了 25% 的單位油耗降低目標。

And we made history just this week with guests sailing on our first ever cruise ship able to be solely powered by even more environmentally friendly liquefied natural gas.

就在本週，我們創造了歷史，客人乘坐我們有史以來第一艘完全由更環保的液化天然氣提供動力的遊輪。

We are fully committed to continuous improvement in health, environment, safety and security.

我們完全致力於持續改進健康、環境、安全和安保。

The last five years have been transformative, achieving breakthrough results against considerable odds.

過去五年是變革性的，在相當大的困難下取得了突破性的成果。

It's a great foundation to build on.

這是一個很好的基礎。

In fact, today, our business model is more sound than ever, having built into the fleet even greater return on investment resilience on top of an even stronger balance sheet.

事實上，今天，我們的商業模式比以往任何時候都更加穩健，在更強大的資產負債表之上，我們的船隊擁有更大的投資回報率。

As our journey continues, we will stay on much the same path to create demand in excess of measured capacity growth, while leveraging our industry-leading scale to deliver a sustained and growing double-digit return on invested capital.

隨著我們旅程的繼續，我們將繼續沿著大致相同的道路創造超過可衡量的產能增長的需求，同時利用我們行業領先的規模來實現持續增長的兩位數投資資本回報。

That said, the relative contribution from the components of our earnings model may change a bit going forward.

也就是說，我們盈利模型各組成部分的相對貢獻可能會在未來發生一些變化。

In the past 5 years, we grew capacity on average 2.5%.

在過去的 5 年中，我們的產能平均增長了 2.5%。

We achieved average annual yield growth greater than 3%, while containing cost increases to less than 2% compounded annually.

我們實現了超過 3% 的年平均產量增長，同時將年復合成本增長控制在 2% 以下。

Going forward, our fleet replenishment efforts are purposely designed to achieve greater economies.

展望未來，我們的機隊補給工作旨在實現更大的經濟效益。

Over the next 5 years, we will welcome 17 larger more efficient ships and continue to divest our less efficient ships, representing net capacity growth of roughly 5% compounded annually.

在接下來的 5 年中，我們將迎來 17 艘更大、更高效的船舶，並繼續剝離我們效率較低的船舶，這代表著每年約 5% 的淨運力增長。

We expect this more efficient capacity to drive greater earnings growth going forward.

我們預計這種更高效的產能將推動未來更大的盈利增長。

Now this higher rate of capacity growth will enable us to better contain cost leaving us less reliant on revenue yield growth to produce double-digit earnings growth over time.

現在，這種更高的產能增長率將使我們能夠更好地控製成本，從而減少我們對收入收益率增長的依賴，從而隨著時間的推移產生兩位數的收益增長。

Our strong and growing cash from operations, which reached $5.5 billion in 2018, is more than enough to fund our debt service requirements, our non-new build capital expenditures, our annual dividend currently $1.4 billion and opportunistic share repurchases.

我們強勁且不斷增長的運營現金在 2018 年達到 55 億美元，足以滿足我們的償債要求、非新建資本支出、我們目前 14 億美元的年度股息和機會性股票回購。

In addition, we have access to $14 billion of committed export credit financing at attractive rates to fund our future growth CapEx.

此外，我們能夠以具有吸引力的利率獲得 140 億美元的承諾出口信貸融資，為我們未來增長的資本支出提供資金。

Of course, all of which will continue to be in the context of maintaining our investment grade credit ratings.

當然，所有這些都將繼續在維持我們的投資級信用評級的背景下進行。

The underlying fundamentals are strong.

基本面強勁。

Of course, in any given year, a confluence of events can occur that would temporarily disrupt the consistent growth path we've been delivering, but there is no doubt, no doubt that our business is poised to perform extremely well over time.

當然，在任何一年中，都會發生一系列事件，這些事件會暫時破壞我們一直在提供的一致增長路徑，但毫無疑問，毫無疑問，隨著時間的推移，我們的業務將表現得非常出色。

Our guidance for next year reflects, once again, delivering record results.

我們對明年的指導再次反映了創紀錄的成果。

We expect net yields in constant currency above this year's historical highs on mid-single-digit capacity growth, producing nearly $1 billion of incremental net revenues, resulting in yet again growth in earnings and end return on invested capital.

我們預計，以固定匯率計算的淨收益率將高於今年的歷史高位，產能增長中位數為中個位數，將產生近 10 億美元的增量淨收入，從而導致收益和最終投資資本回報率再次增長。

While this has been a very turbulent time for the equity capital market, we are working to ensure our corporation will come to be valued for the resilience and consistent execution that our portfolio brands has proven over these last 5 years and time and again.

儘管對於股權資本市場而言，這是一個非常動蕩的時期，但我們正在努力確保我們的公司將因我們的投資組合品牌在過去 5 年中一次又一次地證明的彈性和持續執行而受到重視。

Going forward, we plan to continue to grow our earnings and to deliver sustainable and growing double-digit return on invested capital over time.

展望未來，我們計劃繼續增加我們的收益，並隨著時間的推移實現可持續且不斷增長的兩位數投資資本回報。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Arnold.

謝謝你，阿諾德。

Before I begin, please note all of my references to revenue ticket prices and cost metrics will be in constant currency, unless otherwise stated.

在開始之前，請注意，除非另有說明，否則我對收入票價和成本指標的所有引用都將採用不變貨幣。

I'll start today with a summary of our 2018 fourth quarter and full year results.

我將從今天開始總結我們 2018 年第四季度和全年的業績。

Then, I'll provide an update on current booking trends for 2019 and finish up with some color on our 2019 December guidance.

然後，我將提供 2019 年當前預訂趨勢的最新信息，並為我們的 2019 年 12 月指南添加一些色彩。

Our record adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.70.

我們第四季度創紀錄的調整後每股收益為 0.70 美元。

This was $0.03 above the midpoint of our September guidance.

這比我們 9 月指導的中點高 0.03 美元。

The improvement was revenue driven, $0.08 favorable as increase in net ticket yield benefited from stronger pricing on close-in bookings on both sides of the Atlantic, while onboard and other yields continue to benefit from a variety of our ongoing efforts.

改善是由收入驅動的，有利 0.08 美元，因為淨票收益的增加受益於大西洋兩岸近距離預訂的更高定價，而機上和其他收益繼續受益於我們正在進行的各種努力。

The revenue favorability was partially offset by $0.03 from higher net cruise costs, excluding fuel, due to the timing of cost between the quarters and $0.02 from the net impact of fuel price and currency.

由於兩個季度之間的成本時間安排，不包括燃料的淨巡航成本增加了 0.03 美元，燃料價格和貨幣的淨影響為 0.02 美元，部分抵消了收入的有利因素。

Now let's look at our fourth quarter operating results versus the prior year.

現在讓我們看看我們第四季度的經營業績與上一年的對比。

Our capacity increased 2.3%.

我們的產能增加了 2.3%。

Our North America and Australia segment, more commonly known as our NAA brand, was up almost 5%; while our Europe and Asia segment, more commonly known as our EA brand, was down almost 2%, driven by 2 ship sales earlier in the year.

我們的北美和澳大利亞部分，通常被稱為我們的 NAA 品牌，增長了近 5%；而我們通常被稱為 EA 品牌的歐洲和亞洲部分下降了近 2%，這主要是由於今年早些時候的 2 艘船舶銷售。

Our total net revenue yields were up 3.7%.

我們的總淨收入收益率增長了 3.7%。

Now let's break apart the 2 components of net revenue yields.

現在讓我們分解淨收入收益率的兩個組成部分。

Net ticket yields were up 2.7%.

門票淨收益率上升 2.7%。

This was driven by yield increases in Europe, Australia and China itinerary programs, partially offset by lower yields in the Caribbean.

這是由歐洲、澳大利亞和中國行程計劃的收益增加推動的，部分被加勒比地區的較低收益所抵消。

However, the Caribbean program in the fourth quarter did reflect the anticipated improving trend from the third quarter.

然而，第四季度的加勒比計劃確實反映了第三季度的預期改善趨勢。

Onboard and other yields increased 6.4%, with similar increases on both sides of the Atlantic.

船上和其他產量增加了 6.4%，大西洋兩岸的增幅相似。

In summary, our fourth quarter adjusted EPS was $0.07 higher than last year, with solid 3.7% revenue yield improvement worth $0.18 and lower net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD worth $0.02, both being partially offset by the net impact of fuel price and currency costing $0.13.

總而言之，我們第四季度調整後的每股收益比去年高 0.07 美元，收入收益率穩定增長 3.7%，價值 0.18 美元，不包括每 ALBD 燃料的淨巡航成本降低，價值 0.02 美元，兩者都被燃料價格和貨幣成本的淨影響部分抵消0.13 美元。

Now let's look back at the full year 2018.

現在讓我們回顧一下2018年全年。

We grew our earnings 12%, with adjusted EPS rising to $4.26 versus $3.82 for the prior year.

我們的收益增長了 12%，調整後的每股收益從去年的 3.82 美元上升到 4.26 美元。

The $0.44 improvement resulted from a 15% operational improvement worth $0.56, driven by a strong 3.7% revenue yield increase and the $0.09 accretive impact from the stock repurchase program, both of which were partially offset by the $0.21 cost of higher fuel prices and currency.

0.44 美元的改進是由於 15% 的運營改進，價值 0.56 美元，這得益於強勁的 3.7% 的收入收益增長和股票回購計劃帶來的 0.09 美元的增值影響，這兩者都被燃料價格和貨幣上漲的 0.21 美元成本部分抵消。

Had it not been for the movement in fuel price and currency, our adjusted EPS would have exceeded the high end of the initial guidance range we gave last December of $4 to $4.30.

如果不是燃料價格和貨幣的變動，我們調整後的每股收益將超過我們去年 12 月給出的 4 美元至 4.30 美元的初始指導範圍的高端。

The net improvement over the midpoint of last December's guidance range resulted from 3 things: $0.24 of higher net revenue yield as both net ticket yields and net onboard and other yields exceeded our initial guidance; and the $0.06 from the accretive impact of the stock repurchase program, both of which were partially offset by the impact of fuel price and currency costing $0.14.

去年 12 月指導範圍中點的淨改善源於 3 件事：淨收入收益率增加 0.24 美元，因為淨機票收益率和淨機上及其他收益率都超過了我們的初步指導；以及來自股票回購計劃的增值影響的 0.06 美元，這兩者都被燃油價格和貨幣成本 0.14 美元的影響部分抵消。

Turning to our cash flows for 2018.

轉向我們 2018 年的現金流。

Cash provided by operations was $5.5 billion.

運營提供的現金為 55 億美元。

As a result of our strong cash flows during the year, we were able to return almost $3 billion to our shareholders via the regular quarterly dividend and share repurchases of $1.5 billion.

由於我們年內強勁的現金流，我們能夠通過定期的季度股息和 15 億美元的股票回購向股東返還近 30 億美元。

Now let's look at 2019 booking trends.

現在讓我們看看 2019 年的預訂趨勢。

Since September, booking volumes for 2019 had been running significantly ahead of last year well into the double digit and well ahead of capacity growth.

自 9 月以來，2019 年的預訂量一直顯著領先於去年，達到兩位數，遠遠領先於運力增長。

As expected, prices on booking since September for the Caribbean program are significantly higher as we lap the 2017 weather impact in September.

正如預期的那樣，自 9 月以來加勒比計劃的預訂價格顯著提高，因為我們在 9 月結束了 2017 年的天氣影響。

However, prices on overall bookings since September are in line with the prior year, driven by our EA segment sourcing in Continental Europe.

然而，由於我們在歐洲大陸的 EA 部門採購，自 9 月以來的整體預訂價格與上一年持平。

At this point in time, cumulative advance bookings for 2019 are considerably ahead of the prior year at prices that are in line with last year.

目前，2019 年的累計提前預訂量大大高於上一年，價格與去年持平。

Now let's drill down into the cumulative booked position for 2019, first for our NAA brand.

現在讓我們深入了解 2019 年的累計預訂頭寸，首先是我們的 NAA 品牌。

The Caribbean program is considerably ahead of the prior year on occupancy at higher prices.

加勒比海項目的入住率比上一年高很多。

The seasonal European program is ahead of the prior year on occupancy at considerably higher pricing, while Alaska is in line with the prior year, a very strong prior year, by the way, on both price and occupancy.

季節性的歐洲計劃在入住率方面以相當高的價格領先於上一年，而阿拉斯加與上一年持平，順便說一句，在價格和入住率方面都非常強勁。

Second, for our EA brand.

其次，對於我們的EA品牌。

The Caribbean itineraries are considerably ahead of the prior year on occupancy at lower prices and their European itineraries are ahead of the prior year on occupancy at slightly lower prices.

加勒比地區的行程以較低的價格入住率大大領先於上一年，而其歐洲行程的入住率則以略低的價格領先於上年。

Booking trends for next year have been strong, driven by yield management decisions, which we believe will optimize on net revenue yield growth.

在收益管理決策的推動下，明年的預訂趨勢一直很強勁，我們認為這將優化淨收入收益增長。

In fact, even with a 4.6% capacity increase, we have less inventory remaining for sale than we had at this time last year.

事實上，即使產能增加了 4.6%，我們的待售庫存也比去年這個時候要少。

Finally, I want to provide you with some color on 2019.

最後，我想為你提供一些關於 2019 的顏色。

The forecasted capacity increase is 4.6%, which I just mentioned, and is broken down by quarter as follows; 4.1% for the first quarter, 4.6% for the second, 5.9% for the third and 3.8% for the fourth.

我剛才提到的預測產能增長是4.6%，按季度細分如下；第一季度為 4.1%，第二季度為 4.6%，第三季度為 5.9%，第四季度為 3.8%。

Based on current booking trends, we expect 2019 net cruise revenue growth of approximately 5.5% and an increase in net revenue yield of approximately 1%, with the first half expected to be up somewhat less than the full year, primarily due to very strong prior year comparison.

根據目前的預訂趨勢，我們預計 2019 年郵輪淨收入增長約 5.5%，淨收入收益率增長約 1%，預計上半年增幅將略低於全年，主要是由於此前非常強勁的年份比較。

Now turning to cost.

現在轉向成本。

Net cruise costs without fuel per ALBD is expected to be up approximately 0.5% for 2019.

預計 2019 年每 ALBD 的淨巡航成本將增長約 0.5%。

Broadly speaking, there are 3 main drivers of the cost change: First, our forecast is for an average of 2 points of inflation across all cost categories globally; second, we are able to more than offset this inflation from the economies of scale we achieved by taking delivery of larger, more efficient ships, while disposing of less efficient ships as well as the cost savings from further leveraging our global sourcing scale; the third and final point relates to certain marketing and other ramp-up costs associated with the 3 ships, which will be delivered late in the year during the month of October as well as other smaller investments in IT and other areas of the business.

從廣義上講，成本變化有 3 個主要驅動因素：首先，我們的預測是全球所有成本類別的平均通脹率為 2 個百分點；其次，我們能夠通過交付更大、更高效的船舶，同時處置效率較低的船舶，以及通過進一步利用我們的全球採購規模來節省成本，從而大大抵消了規模經濟帶來的通脹；第三點也是最後一點涉及與 3 艘船相關的某些營銷和其他提升成本，這三艘船將在今年 10 月份交付，以及對 IT 和其他業務領域的其他較小投資。

We currently expect depreciation to be around $2.22 billion for 2019 versus $2.02 billion for 2018.

我們目前預計 2019 年折舊約為 22.2 億美元，而 2018 年為 20.2 億美元。

And we currently expect net interest expense to be around $220 million for 2019 versus $180 million for 2018.

我們目前預計 2019 年的淨利息支出約為 2.2 億美元，而 2018 年為 1.8 億美元。

On a year-over-year basis, we benefit from lower fuel prices by $0.34, including the impact of last year's fuel derivative losses, while the stronger dollar unfavorably impacts us by $0.19.

與去年同期相比，我們受益於燃料價格下降 0.34 美元，包括去年燃料衍生品損失的影響，而美元走強對我們的不利影響為 0.19 美元。

The net favorable impact of fuel prices and currency is unfavorable in the first half of the year, but more than offset in the second half.

燃料價格和貨幣的淨利好影響在上半年是不利的，但在下半年被抵消了。

By quarter, the net impacts are $0.03 unfavorable in the first quarter, a $0.01 unfavorable in the second, $0.06 favorable in the third and $0.12 favorable in the fourth.

按季度劃分，第一季度的淨影響為 0.03 美元，第二季度為 0.01 美元，第三季度為 0.06 美元，第四季度為 0.12 美元。

Putting all these factors together, our adjusted EPS guidance for 2019 is $4.50 to $4.80 versus $4.26 for 2018.

綜合所有這些因素，我們調整後的 2019 年每股收益指引為 4.50 美元至 4.80 美元，而 2018 年為 4.26 美元。

I will finish up by sharing with you our current rules of thumb about the impact that currency and fuel prices can have on our 2019 results.

最後，我將與您分享我們目前關於貨幣和燃料價格可能對我們 2019 年業績產生影響的經驗法則。

To start with, a 10% change in all relevant currencies relative to the U.S. dollar would impact our P&L by approximately $0.27 for the full year and $0.01 for the first quarter.

首先，所有相關貨幣相對於美元的 10% 變化將影響我們全年的損益約 0.27 美元和第一季度的 0.01 美元。

For fuel price changes, a 10% change in the current spot price represents a $0.21 impact for the full year and $0.05 for the first quarter.

對於燃料價格變化，當前現貨價格 10% 的變化對全年的影響為 0.21 美元，對第一季度的影響為 0.05 美元。

Fuel expense in our guidance is $1.45 billion for the full year.

我們指引中的燃料費用為全年 14.5 億美元。

And now I'll turn the call back over to Arnold.

現在我將把電話轉回給阿諾德。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Operator, please open the line for questions.

接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll get to our first question on the line from the line of Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們將從 Felicia Hendrix 與 Barclays 的電話線開始我們的第一個問題。

I have a few questions that just -- before I forget because if I don't ask this first, then I'm going to forget.

我有幾個問題——在我忘記之前，因為如果我不先問這個，那麼我就會忘記。

But just, Beth, if you can give us the first quarter '19 D&A and interest, that would be helpful?

但是，貝絲，如果你能給我們 19 年第一季度的 D&A 和興趣，那會有所幫助嗎？

D&A is about 560, and I will come back to you on the interest in one second.

D&A大概560左右，感興趣的我一秒回复你。

Go on to your next question, please?

請繼續你的下一個問題，好嗎？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

I think this is both for Arnold and David, and I just was hoping you could give us a few clarifications on your guidance.

我認為這適用於 Arnold 和 David，我只是希望你能給我們一些關於你的指導的澄清。

First, last quarter, you said, you'd see solid growth in 2019.

首先，上個季度，你說，你會在 2019 年看到穩健的增長。

I think for most of us just up 1% doesn't really count as solid, so I was just hoping you could help us kind of with the semantics there?

我認為對於我們大多數人來說，僅僅增加 1% 並不算是可靠的，所以我只是希望你能幫助我們解決那裡的語義問題？

But also, David, I thought some of your commentary was really interesting in terms of the color because it looks like your NAA brands are up on occupancy and prices in each of the regions.

而且，大衛，我認為你的一些評論在顏色方面真的很有趣，因為看起來你的 NAA 品牌在每個地區的入住率和價格都有所上升。

You said very nicely strong -- you're using some pretty kind of robust language there.

你說的非常好——你在那裡使用了某種非常健壯的語言。

So it seems like in those regions, you're up more than 1% and it seems like your EA brands are dragging things down.

所以看起來在這些地區，你的漲幅超過了 1%，而且你的 EA 品牌似乎在拖累事情。

So I was just wondering if you could give us some more color on that?

所以我只是想知道你是否可以給我們更多的顏色？

And in the EA, what brands are having the challenges with right -- raising prices?

而在 EA 中，哪些品牌面臨著權利挑戰——提價？

And why would -- why?

為什麼會——為什麼？

Okay.

好的。

So Felicia, first of all, on the opening part about the solid 2019, we're -- we see a very strong base for our business in 2019.

因此，Felicia，首先，在關於 2019 年穩健的開場部分，我們 - 我們看到 2019 年我們的業務基礎非常強大。

We're going to grow our earnings, we're going to grow return on invested capital and so we focus on earnings.

我們將增加我們的收益，我們將增加投資資本的回報，因此我們專注於收益。

As you know, yield is one of the tools that -- to get to earnings and with the capacity increase we have, and at this point in time we're before wave season, we don't have that and, obviously, we have to factor in the unknowns, like we always do.

如您所知，產量是獲得收益的工具之一，隨著我們擁有的產能增加，在這個時間點我們在波浪季節之前，我們沒有那個，顯然，我們有像我們一直做的那樣，將未知因素考慮在內。

So the 1% is our best guidance.

所以 1% 是我們最好的指導。

But of course, we're going to be striving to beat that, as we have in previous years, but that's our guidance at this point in time.

但是，當然，我們將努力克服這一點，就像我們在前幾年所做的那樣，但這是我們目前的指導。

We also have just a combination of mix issues, which I'll let David talk a bit about.

我們也有混合問題的組合，我會讓大衛談談。

Go ahead, David.

去吧，大衛。

So Felicia, the -- keep in mind as we talked in September and, again, I will reiterate, in the first quarter last year, we really did achieve net yield revenue growth of 4%.

所以Felicia，請記住我們在 9 月份的談話，我將再次重申，去年第一季度，我們確實實現了 4% 的淨收益收入增長。

The Caribbean in the first quarter is nearly half our deployment.

第一季度的加勒比海地區幾乎是我們部署的一半。

And in the first quarter, we were so well booked last year, and we had minimal impact from the weather disruptions.

在第一季度，我們去年的預訂量非常大，而且我們對天氣乾擾的影響很小。

And so that led to nicely higher yields and we have a tougher comparison for the first quarter of 2019.

因此，這導致了更高的收益率，我們對 2019 年第一季度進行了更嚴格的比較。

And, however, keep in mind that the Caribbean continues to improve sequentially quarter-to-quarter.

但是，請記住，加勒比地區繼續按季度改善。

The net revenue yield in the Caribbean in the first quarter 2019 is expected to be better than the fourth quarter and that's with significant capacity increase in the Caribbean as well.

預計 2019 年第一季度加勒比地區的淨收入收益率將好於第四季度，而且加勒比地區的產能也顯著增加。

And then when you look at the second quarter of 2018, we achieved nearly 5% yield increases with the challenging Caribbean.

然後，當您查看 2018 年第二季度時，我們在充滿挑戰的加勒比地區實現了近 5% 的產量增長。

So that was more than offset by high -- net revenue yield growth in other programs of 8%.

因此，這被其他項目 8% 的高淨收入收益率增長所抵消。

So all of these factors combined in the first half are headwinds or challenges.

因此，所有這些因素在上半年加起來都是逆風或挑戰。

And when you put that together, and you combine these with the challenging -- these challenging comparisons, with the uncertain economic environment we have in our EA brand, particularly in the Continental Europe sourcing, where we're experiencing significant double-digit capacity increase to those brands, and as a result of this, we are factoring all of this into our guidance for the year and try -- and we're expecting slight improvements in the second quarter and a stronger second half.

當你把這些放在一起，你把這些與挑戰結合起來——這些具有挑戰性的比較，以及我們在 EA 品牌中的不確定經濟環境，特別是在歐洲大陸採購方面，我們正在經歷顯著的兩位數產能增長對於這些品牌，因此，我們將所有這些因素納入我們今年的指導並嘗試——我們預計第二季度會略有改善，下半年會更強勁。

Okay.

好的。

Because ultimately, what I'm just -- I'm trying to do is kind of understand.

因為最終，我只是——我試圖做的是理解。

Your two peers have provided -- they haven't given guidance yet, but they've provided very bullish outlooks for next year.

你的兩位同行已經提供了——他們還沒有給出指導，但他們對明年的前景非常樂觀。

And I'm just trying to call through what the differences might be between what they're seeing and what you're seeing.

我只是想通過他們所看到的和你所看到的之間可能存在的差異來說明。

And it seems like, again, it's coming from some of this uncertainty in your EA brand, which are specific continental brands, which are increasing capacity and perhaps more specific to what's going on at your company than what's going on in the industry, or I mean, in the -- kind of in the marketplace, is that fair?

而且，它似乎再次來自您的 EA 品牌中的一些不確定性，這些品牌是特定的大陸品牌，它們正在增加產能，並且可能比行業中正在發生的事情更具體地針對您公司正在發生的事情，或者我意思是，在市場上，這公平嗎？

Yes, that's a fair representation.

是的，這是一個公平的表示。

I'd just say when you repeated that, I would add the uncertain economic environment in Continental Europe as well.

我只想說，當你重複這一點時，我還要補充歐洲大陸不確定的經濟環境。

Okay.

好的。

And are you seeing -- have you -- yes, and we all know that and we've heard some things, retail and stuff through the quarter, but I'm just wondering if you're seeing a significant change there from when you last reported?

你有沒有看到 - 你有 - 是的，我們都知道，我們在本季度聽到了一些事情，零售和東西，但我只是想知道你是否看到了從你最後報告？

No.

不。

I wouldn't say it's significant change or anything.

我不會說這是重大變化或任何事情。

Again -- I think the other difference, Felicia, a bit is, we're really focused on earnings and return on invested capital.

再一次——我認為另一個區別，費利西亞，有點是，我們真正關注的是收益和投資資本回報。

And so as we have the higher capacity increases, so even the European brands are going to grow in earnings, okay.

因此，隨著我們的產能增加更高，因此即使是歐洲品牌的收益也會增長，好吧。

And that's where we're driving towards.

這就是我們正在努力的方向。

And so with greater capacity, you're less reliant, obviously, on yield increases.

因此，隨著產能的增加，您顯然對產量增加的依賴程度降低了。

But obviously, we're going to strive to get the yield increases.

但顯然，我們將努力提高產量。

But at this point in time for our guidance, given we're in front of wave and uncertainties and some of the challenges that were referenced in terms of economies in Europe, we think that's the prudent guidance at this point, but that guidance takes us to where we want to be in terms of earnings and increase in return on invested capital.

但是在我們的指導的這個時間點，鑑於我們正面臨著浪潮和不確定性以及歐洲經濟方面提到的一些挑戰，我們認為這是目前的審慎指導，但該指導需要我們就收益和投資資本回報率而言，我們希望達到的目標。

Okay.

好的。

And Beth, just whenever you have that interest number that's fine.

貝絲，只要你有那個利息號碼就可以了。

It's $55 million.

這是5500萬美元。

We'll go to our next question on the line from David Beckel with Bernstein Research.

我們將回答 David Beckel 和 Bernstein Research 的下一個問題。

Just sort of following on with guidance and potential changes in expectation.

只需遵循指導和預期的潛在變化即可。

Last quarter, you indicated that you expected yields in the first half to be -- I'm paraphrasing, but a little bit less robust than what Q4 '18 guidance was, which was interpreted by most to be sort of a little bit less than 2. And so now you're obviously indicating probably a little bit lower than that with maybe a step up in Q2.

上個季度，您表示您預計上半年的收益率是——我是在解釋，但比 18 年第四季度的指導要弱一點，大多數人認為這有點低於2. 因此，現在您顯然表示可能比第二季度有所上升。

So I'm just wondering what exactly changed between then and now that informs a more conservative view?

所以我只是想知道從那時到現在到底發生了什麼變化，這會導致更保守的觀點？

Nothing really changed.

沒有什麼真正改變。

I mean, we don't have a more conservative view to be blunt.

我的意思是，我們沒有更保守的觀點直言不諱。

I mean, we feel confident about the year.

我的意思是，我們對這一年充滿信心。

Again, we're focused on earnings and return on invested capital.

同樣，我們專注於收益和投資資本回報。

We're giving the best guidance we have at this point.

我們正在提供目前最好的指導。

But I would say what's changed is that we're well ahead on occupancy.

但我想說的是，我們在入住率方面遙遙領先。

We have -- even with the capacity increases we have, we have less to fill next year than we had at this point in time last year.

我們有 - 即使我們有能力增加，我們明年的填補量也比去年這個時間點要少。

And so we're actually seeing strength.

所以我們實際上看到了力量。

And so we're not -- we don't -- nothing has changed.

所以我們沒有——我們沒有——沒有任何改變。

We aren't more conservative than we were before or whatever.

我們並不比以前更保守。

We do have more visibility because we've had 3 months of bookings, but we had indicated that our guidance for the first half that the -- would be less than what the guidance we gave for the fourth quarter.

我們確實有更多的知名度，因為我們已經預訂了 3 個月，但我們已經表示，我們對上半年的指導 - 將低於我們對第四季度的指導。

But we never quantified the exact number because we had less visibility and said we would give guidance in December, which we are now doing.

但我們從未量化確切的數字，因為我們的知名度較低，並表示我們將在 12 月提供指導，我們現在正在這樣做。

So nothing -- as Arnold said, nothing has changed.

所以什麼都沒有——正如阿諾德所說，什麼都沒有改變。

Understood.

明白了。

In fact, we are in a better looking position than even thought at that point in time.

事實上，我們的處境比當時想像的要好。

Yes.

是的。

So following on that point, specifically, your better booked position, is it fair to assume that YODA has sort of informed or suggested that you increase volumes in bookings or business on the books at the expense of price at this point of the year?

因此，根據這一點，特別是您的預訂情況較好，是否可以假設 YODA 已經告知或建議您在今年這個時候以犧牲價格為代價增加預訂量或業務量？

Is that an active tradeoff that you made heading into the year?

這是你進入這一年所做的積極權衡嗎？

I think YODA is a tool, and it allows us more frequent inquiry and more frequent adjustments, and it's a powerful tool.

我認為YODA是一個工具，它可以讓我們更頻繁的查詢和更頻繁的調整，它是一個強大的工具。

It will show up more in the second half of '19 in terms of impacting real results.

就影響實際結果而言，它將在 19 年下半年出現更多。

But fundamentally, it builds up from the bottom.

但從根本上說，它是從底部建立起來的。

So the key in yield manage to us is by ship, by itinerary, et cetera, and you're looking at it's not just 9 brands, it's all of the itineraries and specifics and it builds up to what it is.

因此，對我們來說，收益管理的關鍵是通過船舶、行程等，你看到的不僅僅是 9 個品牌，而是所有的行程和細節，它建立在它的本質上。

So for certain on some of those itineraries, I am sure along with the tool and the experience of revenue management [scientists] that with capacity increase they wanted to be at a certain point on the booking curve, et cetera, that may have driven decisions, but there are a lot of other variables.

因此，在某些行程中，我確信隨著收入管理 [科學家] 的工具和經驗，隨著容量的增加，他們希望處於預訂曲線上的某個點，等等，這可能會推動決策，但還有很多其他變量。

How much you bundle, how much of the bundling is allocated to onboard versus ticket, affinity groups, charters, there's a lot of moving dynamics there from a booking standpoint.

你捆綁了多少，有多少捆綁分配給機上與機票，親和團體，包機，從預訂的角度來看，有很多動態變化。

But overall, for the guidance in terms of where we'll end up, that's what we have given our best shot at, at this point in time.

但總體而言，對於我們最終將在哪裡進行的指導，這就是我們目前已經給出的最佳選擇。

Got it.

知道了。

And just a last quick question, if I could.

如果可以的話，最後一個快速的問題。

I want to -- there's a lot of concern about the impact of Brexit and you have a U.K. dedicated line.

我想——人們對英國退歐的影響有很多擔憂，而且你有一條英國專線。

Just to confirm, have you seen any sort of weakening in demand or purchase intent from that specific market?

只是為了確認一下，您是否看到該特定市場的需求或購買意願有任何減弱？

We don't give it brand by brand, but the reality is at this point in time, no.

我們不會逐個品牌地給它一個品牌，但現實是在這個時間點上，沒有。

And we'll get to our next question on the line from the line of Harry Curtis with Nomura Instinet.

我們將從Harry Curtis 與Nomura Instinet 的台詞中討論下一個問題。

First question is, what percentage of your business is European sourced?

第一個問題是，您的業務中有多少來自歐洲？

And how does that look through the year?

這一年的情況如何？

So it's probably in total about 30% of our guests come from Europe.

因此，我們總共可能有大約 30% 的客人來自歐洲。

I'm not sure exactly what that is by quarter, but that's in total for the year.

我不確定按季度計算的確切數字，但這是全年的總和。

And it's pretty [confirmed that it is the] European brand versus from Europe, [year-round.]

而且很 [確認它是] 歐洲品牌與來自歐洲的 [全年]。

Okay.

好的。

And looking at the performance of the stock, it seems to me that after you back out the $0.14 fuel benefit -- fuel FX net benefit in your guidance, your earnings growth is really only up 5% for next year despite the 4.6% lift in new capacity.

看看股票的表現，在我看來，在你取消了 0.14 美元的燃料收益——燃料外匯淨收益在你的指導中之後，你明年的收益增長實際上只增長了 5%，儘管增長了 4.6%新能力。

And I'm a little bit -- and I'm somewhat disappointed that we're not getting more of -- or a higher lift, both on yield and earnings contribution from a bigger growth in your base?

而且我有點 - 我有點失望，我們沒有得到更多 - 或更高的提升，無論是收益還是收益貢獻都來自您的基礎更大增長？

Again, the timing of capacity when it comes on, et cetera, all those things factor in, but what we can assure you is that, we have the foundation for double-digit earnings growth over time -- over the near term here, the medium term.

再次，產能的時機，等等，所有這些因素，但我們可以向你保證的是，隨著時間的推移，我們有兩位數的盈利增長的基礎——在短期內，中期。

And I don't know exactly the 5%, it might be a little higher than that, but the bottom line is that's our best guidance at this time, and, of course, we're going to be working to beat that.

而且我不確切知道 5%，它可能會比這高一點，但最重要的是，這是我們目前最好的指導，當然，我們將努力克服它。

And one of the things that we did, Harry, is, over time, we have made a number of investments in capital and we have mentioned this on the previous calls, so that the depreciation went up a bit more than capacity, which impacted the numbers you're referring to.

哈利，我們做的一件事是，隨著時間的推移，我們對資本進行了一些投資，我們在之前的電話會議中提到了這一點，因此折舊的上升幅度超過了產能，這影響了你指的數字。

And these are investments, which we believe over time will pay dividend.

這些都是投資，我們相信隨著時間的推移會帶來紅利。

So I think we're in very good shape, as Arnold indicated in his prepared comments, looking forward in the future.

所以我認為我們的狀態非常好，正如阿諾德在他準備好的評論中指出的那樣，展望未來。

And just a real quick question on your cash flow.

只是一個關於你的現金流的真正快速的問題。

How much capacity do you, really have to buy back stock next year, given the bulge that you see in CapEx, because with the dividend already at $1.4 billion, you're pretty much using most of the operating cash flow after CapEx.

鑑於您在資本支出中看到的膨脹，您明年真的需要回購多少股票，因為股息已經達到 14 億美元，您幾乎使用了資本支出之後的大部分運營現金流。

So to what degree do you feel like you want to turn to your balance sheet to buy back stock?

那麼，你在多大程度上覺得你想轉向你的資產負債表來回購股票？

Well, we ended the year with a debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.96.

好吧，我們以 1.96 的債務與 EBITDA 比率結束了這一年。

So we do have some room on the balance sheet side.

所以我們在資產負債表方面確實有一些空間。

And so if you take a look at our guidance for 2019, we would end the year assuming no buybacks, which, as you know, is the way we put together the guidance, it is slightly above 2x.

因此，如果您看一下我們對 2019 年的指導，我們會在年底假設沒有回購，正如您所知，這是我們匯總指導的方式，略高於 2 倍。

We have almost $700 million remaining on the authorization.

我們的授權還剩近 7 億美元。

So clearly, we have the flexibility to complete the authorization.

很明顯，我們可以靈活地完成授權。

And beyond that, the buyback is a board decision and we'll be discussing that with the board.

除此之外，回購是董事會的決定，我們將與董事會討論。

But one thing I did want to mention, because you brought up capital expenditures and cash flows, is the capital expenditure forecast going forward.

但我確實想提一件事，因為你提到了資本支出和現金流，那就是未來的資本支出預測。

And let me just give you the years -- the numbers by year and then explain the changes.

讓我給你年份——按年份列出的數字，然後解釋變化。

So for 2019, our CapEx number is $6.8 billion; for 2020, its $5.7 billion; for 2021, it's $5.9 billion; and for 2022, it's $5.3 billion.

因此，對於 2019 年，我們的資本支出為 68 億美元； 2020年為57億美元； 2021 年為 59 億美元；到 2022 年，這一數字為 53 億美元。

The 2019 number is probably higher than you'd seen before, but keep in mind, as we mentioned in the press release, we had the delay delivery of the AIDAnova and it was just simply delayed from November to December.

2019 年的數字可能比您以前看到的要高，但請記住，正如我們在新聞稿中提到的，我們推遲了 AIDAnova 的交付，只是從 11 月推遲到 12 月。

So the CapEx that we anticipated in 2018 just fell into the first month of the new fiscal year.

因此，我們在 2018 年預期的資本支出剛剛落入新財年的第一個月。

The other numbers have also gone up.

其他數字也上升了。

We got some feedback because typically, our cap -- the CapEx that we were giving out was new ships that were contracted for as well as non-new build CapEx, the capital improvement.

我們收到了一些反饋，因為通常情況下，我們的上限——我們給出的資本支出是簽約的新船以及非新建資本支出，即資本改進。

And so every time we ordered a new ship, our annual CapEx numbers went up.

因此，每次我們訂購一艘新船時，我們的年度資本支出數字都會上升。

So what we've done is, we've tried to anticipate the new ships we plan to order, and we've included that in the total CapEx projections.

所以我們所做的是，我們試圖預測我們計劃訂購的新船，並將其包含在總資本支出預測中。

So hopefully, we get that -- you'll see the numbers will be much closer in the future as we go forward.

所以希望我們能做到——隨著我們的前進，你會看到未來的數字會更接近。

We'll go to our next question on the line from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

我們將從Stifel 的Stif Wieczynski 的行中轉到下一個問題。

So I have got to ask another European question, you probably are going to get sick of this stuff, but I think that's where we're getting most of our questions here this morning.

所以我不得不問另一個歐洲問題，你可能會厭倦這些東西，但我認為這是我們今天早上在這裡得到的大部分問題。

And I think there's panic out there at this point because you have seen some -- whether it's tour groups or retail providers, start to call up some weakness in certain parts of Europe.

而且我認為此時存在恐慌，因為您已經看到一些 - 無論是旅遊團還是零售供應商，開始在歐洲某些地區出現一些弱點。

So I want to ask this a little bit differently, but I guess, in some of your key European brands, whether it's P&O, Costa, AIDA, whatever you want to look at, have you seen any material changes there in terms of onboard trends that you might want to call out in the last couple of weeks or last month or whatever time frame you want to look at?

所以我想問這個有點不同，但我想，在你們的一些主要歐洲品牌中，無論是 P&O、Costa、AIDA，無論你想看什麼，你有沒有看到那裡在船上趨勢方面的任何重大變化您可能想在過去幾週或上個月或您想查看的任何時間範圍內調用？

No, no, not at all.

不，不，一點也不。

I would say that, obviously, there are some challenges in Europe broadly on continental Europe from turbulent economies or what have you.

我想說的是，顯然，歐洲大陸普遍存在一些挑戰，來自動蕩的經濟體或你有什麼。

But the bottom line is with everything we just told you, our European -- our EA brands are going to grow in earnings and they are absorbing the capacity.

但底線是我們剛剛告訴你的一切，我們的歐洲 - 我們的 EA 品牌的收益將增長，他們正在吸收產能。

They're going to be better than they've ever been.

他們會變得比以往任何時候都好。

And so for us, it's still very strong.

所以對我們來說，它仍然非常強大。

On a relative basis, average to the fleet, all those kinds of things, all that impacts our average numbers that we share with you guys.

在相對基礎上，平均到艦隊，所有這些事情，所有這些都會影響我們與你們分享的平均人數。

But in the end, we are focused on growing earnings and growing return on invested capital.

但最終，我們專注於增加收益和增加投資資本回報。

Our makeup is different than some of the others in the industry.

我們的化妝品與業內其他一些化妝品不同。

But Europe is going to grow earnings.

但歐洲將增加收入。

Europe is doing well.

歐洲做得很好。

They're absorbing their capacity and they are absorbing it, and we'll see they're working to grow yields in the end and we will see where we end up.

他們正在吸收他們的產能，他們正在吸收它，我們將看到他們最終正在努力提高產量，我們將看到我們最終的目標。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

And second question would be just in terms of your yield guidance, in general, and maybe what's embedded in there for onboard?

第二個問題一般來說只是關於您的收益指導，也許其中嵌入了什麼？

And obviously, you're coming off a couple of years of very strong onboard trends, and I guess I'm wondering if you're taking a little bit more conservative view around that metrics -- that metric, even not only the tougher comparisons, but maybe also some global economic uncertainty as well.

很明顯，你正在擺脫幾年來非常強勁的車載趨勢，我想我想知道你是否對這些指標採取更保守的看法——這個指標，甚至不僅僅是更嚴格的比較，但也許還有一些全球經濟的不確定性。

Is that a fair way to kind of characterize that?

這是一種描述它的公平方式嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Well, we haven't generally historically seen onboards impacted by economic environments the way they have in ticket.

好吧，我們通常在歷史上並沒有看到過像機票那樣受經濟環境影響的登機牌。

The way we put this together is the onboard and other increase is slightly above the 1% overall.

我們將這些放在一起的方式是板載和其他增長略高於整體 1%。

And the net passenger or the net ticket is slightly below, getting you to that 1% for the whole year.

而淨乘客或淨機票略低於，全年讓您達到那 1%。

So -- and typically, I think I've said this in the past, we do typically use sort of a 2-ish percent onboard and other guidance number as we go forward and we work very hard to do better than that.

所以——通常情況下，我想我過去已經說過了，我們通常會使用 2% 的機載率和其他指導數字，我們會非常努力地做得更好。

Yes, there's a blurring between ticket and onboard.

是的，機票和機上之間存在模糊。

Brands try different combinations as they move along their booking curve and whatnot.

品牌在沿著預訂曲線移動時嘗試不同的組合等等。

So -- but clearly, pre-wave we have a little bit better visibility on yield, on ticket yield.

所以 - 但很明顯，在波前，我們對收益率和門票收益率有了更好的了解。

Obviously, on onboard, we just have to factor in whatever we can and come up with a forecast, but we work hard to beat it, and that's what our team is about.

顯然，在船上，我們只需要考慮我們可以做的任何事情並做出預測，但我們會努力擊敗它，這就是我們團隊的目標。

But we -- the guidance we've given you, we see the foundation for what we promised, which is over time double-digit earnings growth and continued growth in return on invested capital.

但是我們——我們給你的指導，我們看到了我們承諾的基礎，隨著時間的推移，兩位數的收益增長和投資資本回報的持續增長。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

And David, one quick housekeeping question.

還有大衛，一個快速的家務問題。

I guess, can you help us think about maybe when you put together your fuel guidance?

我想，你能不能幫我們想想當你把你的燃料指南放在一起的時候？

And I guess, what I'm getting at there is, if we kind of, obviously, look at fuel prices over the last week or 2 weeks, it's obviously collapsed a little bit more.

而且我想，我的意思是，如果我們很明顯地看一下過去一周或兩週的燃料價格，它顯然會進一步下跌。

So just trying to figure out maybe at what point in time, you were -- you essentially put that together?

所以只是想弄清楚你是在什麼時間點——你基本上把這些放在一起了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We -- it was a couple of days ago.

我們——那是幾天前。

Brent at that moment was $59.

當時的布倫特原油價格為 59 美元。

I know fuel has moved considerably.

我知道燃料已經發生了很大變化。

Keep in mind, Brent is just one factor, there's also the crack spread as well in determining our fuel price.

請記住，布倫特原油只是其中一個因素，在確定我們的燃料價格時，還有裂解價差。

So look at both of those before you do your calculations.

因此，在進行計算之前，請先查看兩者。

We'll get to our next question on the line from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

我們將從羅賓法利與瑞銀的行中討論下一個問題。

I was struggling a little bit I guess...

我想我有點掙扎...

Robin, you are deep in the call this time.

羅賓，這次你很忙。

Normally, we would have heard from you by now.

通常情況下，我們現在應該已經收到您的來信了。

I know.

我知道。

I'm not sure what happened.

我不確定發生了什麼。

I [think it] was a little bit.

我[認為]有點。

With how much you exceeded close-in guidance, by 170 basis points at the midpoint, is there something about the close-in activity that you think won't recur?

在中點超過 170 個基點的情況下，您超出了收盤指導的多少，您認為收盤活動是否會再次發生？

Something that has, obviously, been driving your results to come in like 150-plus basis points over the last several quarters that is nonrecurring or that sort of -- that you think the trend is going to change?

很明顯，在過去幾個季度裡推動你的業績增長了 150 多個基點的東西是非經常性的或類似的——你認為趨勢會改變嗎？

I'll make a comment, and I'll let David comment as well.

我會發表評論，我也會讓大衛發表評論。

Frankly, as you know, Robin, by now working with us, there are so many unknown things that happen every year.

坦率地說，正如你所知，羅賓，現在與我們合作，每年都會發生很多未知的事情。

And so we find it prudent to anticipate -- you can't anticipate unknown things, but anticipate that things are going to happen.

因此，我們認為謹慎地進行預測——你不能預測未知的事情，但要預測事情將會發生。

And that's always in our guidance at this point of the year.

在今年的這個時候，這始終是我們的指導方針。

If more things happen, that guidance seems to be prudent.

如果發生更多事情，該指導似乎是謹慎的。

If fewer things happen, that guidance seems conservative.

如果發生的事情更少，那麼該指導似乎是保守的。

And we never know what the future is going to hold and whether it's going to be more less or the same.

而且我們永遠不知道未來會發生什麼，以及它會變得更少還是一樣。

And that will be my general statement.

這將是我的一般性聲明。

I'll let David make a comment.

我會讓大衛發表評論。

Yes.

是的。

You know if you break up the pieces, the onboard and other probably accounted for 60-ish or 65% of the improvement.

你知道，如果你分解這些部分，板載和其他可能佔改進的 60-ish 或 65%。

And we have very little visibility on the onboard and other going into the quarter.

而且我們對本季度的板載和其他方面的知名度非常低。

So that's just a factor of our business.

所以這只是我們業務的一個因素。

And fortunately, we worked hard and we did better in the onboard and other, which drove it.

幸運的是，我們努力工作，我們在機載和其他方面做得更好，這推動了它。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And maybe just as follow-up.

也許只是跟進。

You were calling out some of the continental sourcing brand, the softer -- the uncertainty there.

你在呼喚一些大陸採購品牌，越軟——那裡的不確定性。

Did they exceed your expectations on a close-in basis in Q4?

他們在第四季度是否超出了您的預期？

Or no, did they come in just as you anticipated or did they also come in a little better than your expectations?

或者不是，他們是按照你的預期來的，還是比你的預期好一點？

No.

不。

I did say in my prepared remarks that the close-in bookings was stronger on both sides of the Atlantic.

我在準備好的講話中確實說過，大西洋兩岸的近距離預訂都更強。

So they exceeded.

所以他們超過了。

So that includes the continental, not just the U.K.?

所以這包括大陸，而不僅僅是英國？

Yes, both of -- yes, North America as well as Europe.

是的，兩者——是的，北美和歐洲。

Okay.

好的。

But I asked you -- I meant, the continental brand, not just the U.K.

但我問過你——我的意思是，大陸品牌，而不僅僅是英國。

Yes, the continental, yes.

是的，大陸，是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then this is just a very minor last question.

然後這只是最後一個非常小的問題。

Before some of the EPS impact from the AIDAnova delay, don't the shipyards usually pay a penalty, where, in other words, there would not be an earnings impact for you?

在 AIDAnova 延遲對 EPS 造成的一些影響之前，造船廠通常不會支付罰款嗎？換句話說，對您來說不會對收益產生影響？

I was just surprised to see an earnings impact when usually the yard would cover that.

我只是驚訝地看到通常院子會覆蓋收益的影響。

Yes, they do.

是的，他們有。

There are liquidated damages, but the accounting rule say that we have to reduce the net book value of the ship by the liquidated damage payment.

有違約金，但會計規則說我們必須通過違約金來減少船舶的賬面淨值。

So unfortunately, it doesn't go through the P&L and -- but we made [a hole] by those losses.

所以不幸的是，它沒有通過損益表，而且——但我們因這些損失而犯了[一個洞]。

Yes.

是的。

It's the balance sheet, yes...

這是資產負債表，是的...

We'll get to our next question on the line from Jared Shojaian from Wolfe Research.

我們將回答來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian 的下一個問題。

So you made some comments about how the higher capacity growth leaves you less reliant on yield growth?

因此，您就更高的產能增長如何讓您對產量增長的依賴程度降低發表了一些評論？

And I appreciate that there are yield mix differences between each of your brands.

我很欣賞你們每個品牌之間的產量組合差異。

But I would still think that every ship you're taking delivery of should still be yield accretive to your system yields, just given that your system yields are already more weighted to the contemporary segment.

但我仍然認為，你接收的每艘船都應該增加你的系統產量，只是考慮到你的系統產量已經更加重視當代部分。

So I guess, the question is, shouldn't this incremental step up in capacity growth in 2019 and beyond give you a tailwind on the yield side relative to the prior years?

所以我想，問題是，2019 年及以後產能增長的這種增量步伐不應該給你帶來相對於前幾年的收益率方面的順風嗎？

Or do you disagree with that thought?

或者你不同意這個想法？

Within a brand, in general, true.

在一個品牌中，一般來說是正確的。

And not necessarily clearly on yield, but definitely on earnings for that brand.

不一定清楚產量，但肯定是該品牌的收益。

But across the brand, it depends where the capacity is, if [you have a] mix.

但在整個品牌中，這取決於產能在哪裡，如果[你有]混合。

So we have some brands that have are below our fleet average and yield and some that are above.

因此，我們有一些品牌低於我們的車隊平均水平和產量，而一些品牌則高於我們的平均水平。

Greater capacity increases in those that are below is still earnings accretive.

那些低於的產能增加更多仍然是收益增值。

It grows our earnings, but it doesn't necessarily allow you to grow as much in yield because it's holding back as you get more capacity and a below average fleet.

它增加了我們的收入，但它並不一定能讓您的產量增長同樣多，因為隨著您獲得更多容量和低於平均水平的機隊，它會阻礙您。

You can understand the math.

你可以理解數學。

So that's only about the [capacity.] There's a bunch of other variables, too.

所以這只是關於[容量]。還有很多其他變量。

Because again, what is included in ticket versus in booking kind of -- is included in ticket versus onboard.

因為再次，機票中包含的內容與預訂中的內容 - 包含在機票與機上。

And then, if we shifted to more onboard, we have to actually realize that in onboard.

然後，如果我們轉向更多的板載，我們必須在板載上真正意識到這一點。

And again, we're giving you guidance right now, we're not reporting actuals for 2019, we're giving you guidance.

再說一次，我們現在正在為您提供指導，我們沒有報告 2019 年的實際情況，我們正在為您提供指導。

And so all of those factors come into play, but it's not automatic that everything will just [floss] up because it's not all even.

所以所有這些因素都發揮了作用，但並不是所有事情都會[牙線]自動上升，因為它不是全部均勻的。

Certain brands have capacity 1 year, other brands the next year, increased capacity, et cetera.

某些品牌的產能為 1 年，其他品牌的產能在明年增加，等等。

We have given our size -- yes...

我們已經給出了我們的尺寸——是的……

I want to leave with you at this.

我想和你一起離開。

I understand why you guys focus so much on yield, but it's one lever to grow earnings.

我理解你們為什麼如此關注收益，但這是增加收益的一種手段。

For us, again, we're totally focused on growing the earnings and return on invested capital.

對我們來說，再一次，我們完全專注於增加收益和投資資本回報。

And we're managing everything to effect that.

我們正在管理一切以實現這一點。

And there's timing issues of when capacity comes in, when capital is recorded on and on and on.

還有時間問題，即產能何時進入，資本何時被記錄下來。

All that mix of stuff confluence of things can create, at any point in time, a particular number.

所有這些混合的東西都可以在任何時間點創造一個特定的數字。

But what happens over time is what we're focused on.

但是隨著時間的推移會發生什麼是我們關注的。

And clearly, we're going to grow earnings on top of a record year that we just experienced.

很明顯，我們將在剛剛經歷的創紀錄年份的基礎上增加收入。

We're going to grow return on invested capital.

我們將增加投資資本的回報。

We've got the double-digit return on invested capital, and we're going to do that in the year.

我們已經獲得了兩位數的投資資本回報，我們將在今年做到這一點。

And then we're going be double-digit on average over the near term in earnings and continue to grow return on invested capital.

然後，我們在短期內的平均收益將達到兩位數，並繼續增加投資資本回報率。

We have a very strong business with very strong demand.

我們的業務非常強勁，需求也非常強勁。

Okay.

好的。

And then just switching gears here.

然後在這裡換檔。

Last quarter, you announced the 4 ship sales for 2019.

上個季度，你們公佈了 2019 年的 4 艘船舶銷量。

Can you just talk about the strength of the transaction market?

能否簡單談談交易市場的強弱？

And whether you think the new IMO 2020 rules may be driving more of a robust secondary market right now as really the private companies look to become more compliant?

您是否認為新的 IMO 2020 規則現在可能會推動更強勁的二級市場，因為私營公司真的希望變得更加合規？

And then I guess, on that, how are you thinking about additional ship sales beyond the 4 that you've already announced?

然後我想，在這方面，您如何考慮超出您已經宣布的 4 艘的額外船舶銷售？

And is it possible that you could do more in 2019 in the near term here?

您是否有可能在 2019 年在短期內做得更多？

Yes, the practical reality to us if the ship is relevant to our guests and is delivering double-digit return on invested capital and we'll -- as we have to invest more in that ship over time, we'll continue with the ship in the fleet if it's relevant to the guests and it's earning its keep.

是的，如果這艘船與我們的客人相關並且正在為投資資本帶來兩位數的回報，那麼對我們來說現實現實，我們將——隨著時間的推移，我們必須對該船進行更多投資，我們將繼續使用這艘船如果它與客人相關並且它正在獲得保留，則在艦隊中。

If it's not, then the ship will be gone.

如果不是，那麼這艘船就會消失。

And so in terms of there being a robust secondary market, there's no question the secondary market has opportunity, not only because of eco regulations, but simply because the aging of the ships that are in the secondary markets.

因此，就二級市場的強勁發展而言，二級市場無疑是有機會的，這不僅是因為生態法規，還因為二級市場的船舶老化。

Those ships are now -- many of them are getting 40, 45 years old and they're just going to need to rotate out.

這些船現在 - 其中許多已經 40、45 歲了，他們只是需要輪換。

So there should be a market for a number of the ships, but at the same time, to drive earnings and return on invested capital, if we had a need to scrap a ship and not sell it, we would do that.

因此，許多船應該有市場，但同時，為了推動收益和投資資本回報，如果我們需要報廢一艘船而不是賣掉它，我們會這樣做。

We don't see that at this point in time, but if it came to that, we have no problems doing it.

我們目前還沒有看到這一點，但如果是這樣的話，我們這樣做沒有問題。

We've also -- over time, we sold 28 ships since 2006.

自 2006 年以來，我們還 - 隨著時間的推移，我們售出了 28 艘船。

So it's been roughly 2 ships a year and it's hard to predict.

所以每年大約有 2 艘船，很難預測。

It depends on the demand in the market, but we say consistently, we'd likely sell 1 to 2 ships a year over time as the ships get older, which isn't a big surprise.

這取決於市場的需求，但我們始終如一地說，隨著船舶年齡的增長，我們每年可能會出售 1 到 2 艘船舶，這不足為奇。

But we're not going to hold on to an underperforming asset because we're not able to sell it.

但我們不會持有表現不佳的資產，因為我們無法出售它。

I mean, we would scrap it if we had to.

我的意思是，如果必須，我們會廢棄它。

I don't anticipate that, but if we had to do it, we would do it.

我沒有預料到，但如果我們必須這樣做，我們會這樣做。

We will get to our next question on the line from the line of Greg Badishkanian from Citigroup.

我們將從花旗集團的 Greg Badishkanian 的電話中回答我們的下一個問題。

It's actually Fred Wightman, on for Greg.

實際上是弗雷德·懷特曼（Fred Wightman）代表格雷格（Greg）。

If we look at the full year guide for net cruise costs, just compared to the first quarter outlook, can you remind us what's driving some more of that favorable outlook beyond 1Q?

如果我們看一下全年淨郵輪成本指南，與第一季度的展望相比，您能否提醒我們是什麼推動了第一季度之後的這種有利前景？

So overall, our guidance, as we put it together and I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we do have the capacity increase, we get economies of scale from that.

所以總的來說，我們的指導，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們確實有能力增加，我們從中獲得了規模經濟。

We have our global sourcing efforts where we're leveraging our scale.

我們有我們的全球採購工作，我們正在利用我們的規模。

So those are 2 major items that I had indicated are more than offsetting inflation for the full year.

因此，我指出的兩個主要項目不僅僅是抵消全年的通貨膨脹。

When you look at the quarters, I know the first quarter was up, like, 2% -- in the full year, we're talking about being up just 0.5%.

當您查看季度時，我知道第一季度上漲了 2% - 在全年中，我們談論的是僅上漲 0.5%。

So what that implies is that the rest of the year is relatively flat.

因此，這意味著今年剩餘時間相對平穩。

I always say judge us on overall the cost for the year because there are timings between the quarter, whether it be things like drydock or advertising that does vary year-to-year, quarter-to-quarter.

我總是說要根據全年的總體成本來判斷我們，因為每個季度之間都有時間安排，無論是乾船塢還是廣告，每年、季度之間都會有所不同。

That makes a lot of sense.

這很有意義。

And then I think you had mentioned the China ticket prices were up in 4Q.

然後我想你提到了中國票價在第四季度上漲。

Wondering if you could just talk a bit about the broader yield environment in that market today?

想知道您是否可以談談今天該市場更廣泛的收益率環境？

Are things stabilizing?

情況穩定嗎？

How are you thinking about industry capacity in that market and competition overall?

您如何看待該市場的行業容量和整體競爭？

Things are definitely better than they were, say, a year plus ago.

事情肯定比一年多前要好。

In China, some of that is -- there's has been capacity that's moved out.

在中國，其中一些是——已經有產能被轉移出去。

But a lot of it is, frankly, the distribution system just becoming more familiar with cruise.

但坦率地說，其中很多是分銷系統對郵輪越來越熟悉。

So we see China, again, as small, very small part of our overall mix today.

因此，我們再次將中國視為我們今天整體組合的一小部分。

We see the real opportunity, of course, being our joint venture with CSSC and building a domestic cruise brand there.

當然，我們看到了真正的機會，那就是與中船建立合資企業並在那裡建立國內郵輪品牌。

But there's [1s and 2, 3] ships in and out.

但是有 [1s and 2, 3] 船進出。

So it's a market that is more important for the development for the future than it is right now.

因此，對於未來的發展來說，這是一個比現在更重要的市場。

But just in terms of yield environment, the yield environment is certainly better.

但單從良率環境來說，良率環境肯定更好。

We'll get to our next question on the line from Jaime Katz with MorningStar.

我們將在 Jaime Katz 與 MorningStar 的電話中回答我們的下一個問題。

I just had one quick question.

我只有一個簡短的問題。

I think you guys mentioned the rollout of the Ocean Medallion on the Caribbean Princess.

我想你們提到了加勒比公主號上推出的海洋勳章。

I'm curious if you guys have any learned lessons from that yet?

我很好奇你們是否從中吸取了教訓？

Whether that has stimulated incremental onboard spend?

這是否刺激了船上消費的增加？

And if so, is there a timeline to roll it out the rest of the brand?

如果是這樣，是否有時間表將其推出品牌的其餘部分？

Thank you, and happy holidays to you.

謝謝你，祝你節日快樂。

Look, we're very excited about Ocean, but it's still at the early stages.

看，我們對 Ocean 感到非常興奮，但它仍處於早期階段。

And so to answer your question directly, yes, we've seen blips here and there, but we want to see consistent delivery and performance over time before we make any hard assessment on revenue and ticket yields.

因此，要直接回答您的問題，是的，我們已經看到了這里和那裡的亮點，但我們希望看到隨著時間的推移一致的交付和性能，然後再對收入和門票收益進行任何嚴格的評估。

And keep in mind, it's new technology.

請記住，這是新技術。

So maybe you have an Apple phone, I don't know if you ever use your AirDrop feature on it, if you happen to have one, you know a lot of people don't know the AirDrop even exists; if they do, they don't know how to use it and so on, but it's a great feature if you want to just share photos at an event or something.

所以也許你有一部蘋果手機，我不知道你是否曾經在上面使用過你的 AirDrop 功能，如果你碰巧有一個，你知道很多人甚至不知道 AirDrop 的存在；如果他們這樣做，他們不知道如何使用它等等，但如果您只想在活動或其他事情上分享照片，這是一個很棒的功能。

And once people use it, they love it.

一旦人們使用它，他們就會愛上它。

So similarly for us, with ocean, there so many features, our crew has to get used to it and then, of course, we have to activate with guests and guests have to become familiar with it.

所以同樣對我們來說，海洋有很多功能，我們的工作人員必須習慣它，當然，我們必須與客人一起激活，客人必須熟悉它。

We have every indication from guest satisfaction scores, from crew satisfaction scores, that it's definitely elevating the guest experience and the crew experience and now we see potential, but it is new.

我們從客人滿意度得分和船員滿意度得分中獲得了所有跡象，表明它肯定會提升客人體驗和船員體驗，現在我們看到了潛力，但它是新的。

And so we have to let it play out.

所以我們必須讓它發揮作用。

We have the full ship now active on Regal Princess.

我們現在在富豪公主號上啟用了整艘船。

We have 6, 7 other Princess ships ready to go when the time comes.

時機成熟時，我們還有 6、7 艘公主郵輪準備出發。

And we're learning and educating and practicing and experiencing, meanwhile the guests are having a great experience with it.

我們在學習、教育、實踐和體驗，同時客人也有很好的體驗。

But we see potential, but it's a little too early to count the chickens.

但我們看到了潛力，但現在計算雞群還為時過早。

We'll get our next question on the line from line of Tim Conder with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行證券公司的蒂姆康德一行。

I wanted to circle back on the topic of the day, Europe continental sourcing.

我想回到今天的話題，歐洲大陸採購。

Any comments that you can give us by color, Italy, Germany and U.K. Obviously, your 3 main source markets.

您可以按顏色、意大利、德國和英國給我們的任何評論。顯然，您的 3 個主要來源市場。

I mean, U.K. is not on the continent.

我的意思是，英國不在大陸上。

So Italy and Germany, a lot of budgetary uncertainty over the last couple of months in Italy.

所以意大利和德國，在過去幾個月裡，意大利的預算存在很多不確定性。

How has that impacted?

這有什麼影響？

And is that -- are you seeing any similar type of impact with changes in the government in Germany and maybe one being impacted more than the other?

那是 - 你是否看到德國政府的變化有任何類似的影響，也許其中一個受到的影響比另一個更大？

Okay.

好的。

I'll start and I'll let David fill in what the details are.

我會開始，我會讓大衛填寫詳細信息。

First of all, I just want to emphasize, again, that Europe is strong, and we're talking double-digit capacity increase and number of brands there that are ahead on bookings with less to book even with that capacity increase than they've had even last year.

首先，我只想再次強調，歐洲很強大，我們正在談論兩位數的容量增長和預訂量領先的品牌數量，即使容量增加，但預訂量也低於他們甚至去年。

So first comment is, it's strong, that's number one.

所以第一條評論是，它很強大，這是第一位的。

Number two is that, yes, in general, the average ticket yield there is less than the average for our fleet.

第二是，是的，一般來說，那裡的平均票價低於我們車隊的平均水平。

And so even with a strong performance, it can pull down when we give you an average number, especially at booking time.

因此，即使表現強勁，當我們為您提供平均數字時，它也會下降，尤其是在預訂時。

Across 9 brands, it can pull down the yield picture, but it is strong.

縱觀9個品牌，它可以拉低收益率圖，但它很強勁。

And so I'll let David color in on, but Germany is strong and U.K. is strong.

所以我會讓大衛參與進來，但德國很強大，英國很強大。

Go ahead, David.

去吧，大衛。

So overall, we're well ahead of the prior year and on an increased level of capacity.

因此，總體而言，我們遠遠領先於前一年，並且產能水平有所提高。

So as Arnold said, we are -- things are very strong and we see an improving trend.

正如阿諾德所說，我們 - 情況非常強大，我們看到了改善的趨勢。

I mean, overall, we [say it] on a cumulative position, where pricing is in line.

我的意思是，總的來說，我們[說它]是在一個累積的位置上，定價是一致的。

And when you look forward, you see that the second half of the booked position for the rest of the year is obviously -- is expected to be up considerably from where we are to date to get to the 1% yield guidance.

當您展望未來時，您會看到今年剩餘時間的下半年預訂頭寸顯然 - 預計將大大高於我們迄今為止達到 1% 收益率指導的水平。

So we're seeing positive trends, we're seeing very strong volume.

所以我們看到了積極的趨勢，我們看到了非常強勁的銷量。

And we are seeing a lot of economic uncertainty within those countries that you mentioned, which is impacting the overall booking situation, which we've said before that economic uncertainty does affect the consumer, which affects our business.

我們在你提到的那些國家看到了很多經濟不確定性，這正在影響整體預訂情況，我們之前已經說過，經濟不確定性確實會影響消費者，從而影響我們的業務。

Okay.

好的。

So it sounds like that maybe Italy is the lead of the problem then followed by Germany and U.K. is doing well?

所以聽起來意大利可能是問題的主導者，然後是德國，英國表現良好？

Let me -- first of all, I can't emphasize enough.

讓我——首先，我怎麼強調都不過分。

There is no problem.

沒有問題。

We're talking double-digit capacity increase, our bookings are ahead of where they were last year.

我們正在談論兩位數的容量增長，我們的預訂量超過了去年的水平。

We have less to book even with double-digit capacity increases in some of those brands than we had last year.

即使其中一些品牌的產能增加了兩位數，我們的預訂量也比去年少。

So there is absolutely no problem.

所以絕對沒有問題。

Those brands are going to grow their earnings this year over last year.

這些品牌今年的收入將比去年增加。

So we had a growth in earnings.

所以我們的收入增長了。

So there really isn't a problem.

所以真的沒有問題。

You're just talking weighting of averages and numbers, but there is not a problem in the market, there's is not soft demand, there's -- none of that's happening.

你只是在談論平均值和數字的權重，但市場沒有問題，沒有疲軟的需求，沒有——這些都沒有發生。

So mix, as you said, some brands yield lower, but still have higher profitability there, is that the key?

所以混合，正如你所說，一些品牌的產量較低，但仍有較高的盈利能力，這是關鍵嗎？

Well, the fact is, even though they may be below the fleet average, they earn money.

好吧，事實是，即使他們可能低於車隊平均水平，他們也能賺錢。

And then even if they improve year-to-year, they may not get to the average of the fleet.

然後，即使他們逐年改進，也可能達不到機隊的平均水平。

So you're still not seeing an overall increase in yield as they have more capacity that can pull it down.

所以你仍然沒有看到產量的整體增長，因為他們有更多的能力可以把它拉下來。

Now in the end -- by the end of the year, by the time we get there with onboards and everything, your mix may not even have any impact; historically, it doesn't, okay.

現在到最後——到今年年底，當我們帶著板載和所有東西到達那裡時，你的組合甚至可能沒有任何影響；從歷史上看，它沒有，好吧。

But we've got unusual capacity increases in some of the brands and so we'll see what happens.

但是我們在一些品牌中出現了異常的產能增長，所以我們將看看會發生什麼。

But it's not -- there's not a problem.

但它不是——沒有問題。

The only reason why you guys feel, I think, some of you might is because you're so focused on the yield number, which is definitely a lever in growing earnings and return on invested capital, but it's not the only lever when you have a portfolio of 9 brands with lots of moving parts.

我認為，你們中的一些人可能會感到的唯一原因是因為你們非常關注收益率數字，這絕對是增加收益和投資資本回報的一個槓桿，但當你擁有時，它並不是唯一的槓桿由 9 個品牌組成的組合，其中包含許多活動部件。

It's not as simple a picture as a simple yield number.

它不像簡單的產量數字那樣簡單。

And when you try to compare it to other companies, you're comparing apples and oranges.

當您嘗試將其與其他公司進行比較時，您就是在比較蘋果和橙子。

And so the comparison, you'd have to get to a huge amount of detail, which we don't do, we won't provide you details by every brand because it's not how we run the business for obvious reasons.

因此，進行比較時，您必須了解大量細節，而我們不會這樣做，我們不會為您提供每個品牌的詳細信息，因為出於顯而易見的原因，這不是我們經營業務的方式。

We run the business by brand, but we wouldn't share that, right?

我們按品牌經營業務，但我們不會分享，對吧？

Okay, okay.

好吧好吧。

No, no.

不，不。

Lastly, back to the fleet and kind of maybe looking a little bit longer-term here.

最後，回到艦隊，這裡可能看起來有點長遠。

David, you talked about in your earlier comments about the D&A being up, given the reinvestments.

大衛，你在之前的評論中談到了 D&A 正在上升，考慮到再投資。

How should we think about that looking now over the next 3 to 5 years?

我們應該如何看待未來 3 到 5 年的情況？

Obviously, you'll have ship retirements.

顯然，您將有船舶退役。

Obviously you've got ships on order.

顯然，您已經訂購了船隻。

But just given the scale of the fleet, should we anticipate that existing fleet reinvestment rate to further accelerate and then, therefore, D&A maybe to grow at a higher clip from that reinvestment alone, excluding that new ship orders?

但考慮到船隊的規模，我們是否應該預期現有船隊的再投資率會進一步加快，因此，不包括新船訂單，僅從再投資來看，D&A 可能會以更高的速度增長嗎？

It's really hard to say because there's a lot of decisions yet to be made over time.

這真的很難說，因為隨著時間的推移還有很多決定要做。

But we've been saying for a couple of years now that the expectation is that D&A would grow a few percentage points higher than capacity.

但是幾年來我們一直在說，預計 D&A 的增長將比產能高幾個百分點。

And exactly how many -- we've got a lot of decisions left to make to determine that, but that should help in your modeling.

到底有多少——我們還有很多決定要確定，但這應該有助於你的建模。

We'll get to our next question on the line from Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research.

我們將回答 Assia Georgieva 與 Infinity Research 的下一個問題。

I had one quick question.

我有一個簡單的問題。

If you look at the cadence of yields for fiscal 2019, and again, I understand that we still don't have European source passenger bookings quite firmed up, occupancy is up, but we probably still need a couple more months, would it be fair to say that Q1 might be the weakest link in the year and as we go through Q2, 3 and 4, we might see actually higher yields, higher earnings?

如果你看看 2019 財年的收益率節奏，我知道我們仍然沒有確定歐洲來源的乘客預訂量，入住率上升，但我們可能還需要幾個月的時間，這是否公平說第一季度可能是今年最薄弱的環節，當我們經歷第二、第三和第四季度時，我們可能會看到實際上更高的收益率和更高的收益？

So I did indicate in my comments that the first half was a tougher comparison.

所以我確實在我的評論中指出，上半場是一個更艱難的比較。

And so we do see this back half being stronger than the first half.

所以我們確實看到後半部分比前半部分更強大。

And we do see an improving trend in the second half ,which was a little bit of what I was getting at before.

而且我們確實看到了下半年的改善趨勢，這與我之前的情況略有不同。

So you are correct in your paraphrasing of the year.

所以你對今年的解釋是正確的。

Well, David, I was trying to paraphrase and try to actually dig a little bit deeper.

好吧，大衛，我試圖解釋並嘗試更深入地挖掘。

So Q2 is going to be better than Q1, is that a fair statement?

所以第二季度會比第一季度更好，這是一個公平的說法嗎？

That is what we expect at this time, it builds into our overall guidance.

這是我們目前所期望的，它包含在我們的整體指導中。

And in Q4 because you're getting new builds, that should be a good quarter as well?

在第四季度，因為您正在獲得新版本，那也應該是一個不錯的季度？

We're getting new builds in late October.

我們將在 10 月下旬獲得新版本。

So the impact is very minimal in the year, it's like just a month, so careful about that.

所以這一年的影響很小，就像一個月，所以要小心。

And keep in mind that every month in the quarter is not the same, and now you're going to get into the mix impact as well in a quarter.

請記住，本季度的每個月都不相同，現在您也將在一個季度中獲得混合影響。

That is totally fair.

這是完全公平的。

So operator, we will take one more call.

所以接線員，我們再接一個電話。

One more question.

還有一個問題。

We'll proceed then with our final question for today from the line of Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

然後我們將繼續我們今天的最後一個問題，來自莎朗·扎克菲亞（Sharon Zackfia）和威廉·布萊爾（William Blair）的台詞。

I guess, there's been a lot of commentary about mix and all of that, and perhaps just to clarify because it sounds as if Europe growing so quickly is part of the dynamic with the yield outlook for next year.

我想，有很多關於混合和所有這些的評論，也許只是為了澄清，因為聽起來歐洲增長如此之快是明年收益率前景動態的一部分。

Within that construct of looking at Europe versus Europe, are you expecting yield to be positive in the EA, but it's the mix that's bringing down the consolidated?

在查看歐洲與歐洲的結構中，您是否預計 EA 中的收益率是正數，但正是這種組合降低了綜合收益？

I just want to make sure I understand that correctly.

我只是想確保我理解正確。

Generally speaking, we don't -- while I do make commentary historically on the actuals, we don't give guidance by brand or by segment of the business.

一般來說，我們不會 - 雖然我確實對實際情況進行過歷史評論，但我們不會按品牌或業務部門提供指導。

But we -- as Arnold said before, we see the volumes being strong on both sides of Atlantic, in Europe as well as in North America.

但我們——正如阿諾德之前所說，我們看到大西洋兩岸、歐洲和北美的銷量都很強勁。

And we're well-positioned to achieve our guidance and we're working hard to do better than that.

我們已經準備好實現我們的指導，我們正在努力做得更好。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you all very much.

非常感謝大家。

First of all, I just want to reiterate that we're marching down the path to double-digit earnings growth and continued growth from return on invested capital.

首先，我只想重申，我們正朝著兩位數的盈利增長和投資資本回報率的持續增長邁進。

Clearly, on the bookings that we shared with you, given the environment, some of our brands have chosen to put more business on the book earlier to optimize in an uncertain environment.

顯然，在我們與您分享的預訂中，考慮到環境，我們的一些品牌選擇更早地將更多業務放在預訂上，以在不確定的環境中進行優化。

But even with the uncertain environment, we're going to grow earnings, we're going to grow return on invested capital and we're marching down the path.

但即使在不確定的環境下，我們也將增加收益，我們將增加投資資本回報，並且我們正在沿著這條道路前進。

I want to thank you all very much.

我要非常感謝你們。

I'd like to acknowledge 120,000 colleagues here at Carnival Corporation, again, for delivering on the promise of double-digit return on invested capital this year.

我要再次感謝嘉年華公司的 120,000 名同事，他們兌現了今年投資資本回報率兩位數的承諾。

And I really want to wish everyone a joyful, safe, and happy holidays.

我真的很想祝大家度過一個快樂、安全、快樂的假期。

Thank you all very much.

非常感謝大家。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call for today.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for participation.

我們感謝您的參與。

I ask you to disconnect your lines, and have a great day, everyone.

我請你們斷開線路，祝大家有美好的一天。