嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. I am Arnold Donald, President and CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc. Today, I'm joined by our Chairman, Micky Arison; by David Bernstein, our Chief Financial Officer; and by Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you all for joining us this morning and we sincerely wish each of you and those you love a safe and joyful holiday season.

大家早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2017 年第四季度收益電話會議。我是 Arnold Donald，Carnival Corporation & plc 的總裁兼首席執行官。今天，我們的主席 Micky Arison 加入了我的行列；我們的首席財務官 David Bernstein；以及投資者關係高級副總裁 Beth Roberts。感謝大家今天早上加入我們，我們衷心祝愿你們每一個人和你們所愛的人度過一個安全快樂的假期。

Now, before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking, therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

現在，在我開始之前，請注意我們對這次電話會議的一些評論將是前瞻性的，因此，我必須向您推薦今天新聞稿中的警示性聲明。

While fourth quarter adjusted earnings were $0.04 per share below the prior year's record levels, we experienced another quarter of strong revenue yield and, excluding $0.11 per share drag due to the hurricane disruptions, a quarter of earnings improvement. In fact, we finished the year strong with adjusted earnings that exceeded the midpoint of guidance. This quarter, we exceeded guidance by $0.16 per share, helping to produce the highest full year adjusted earnings in our company's history.

雖然第四季度調整後的每股收益比去年的創紀錄水平低 0.04 美元，但我們經歷了又一個季度的強勁收入收益率，並且不包括由於颶風破壞造成的每股 0.11 美元的拖累，四分之一的收益有所改善。事實上，我們以超過指導中點的調整後收益完成了強勁的一年。本季度，我們超過了每股 0.16 美元的指引，幫助實現了公司歷史上最高的全年調整後收益。

We achieved full year 2017 adjusted earnings of nearly $2.8 billion or $3.82 per share. That's $0.37 higher than last year's record results and well above the high end of our original December guidance range of $3.30 to $3.60. And that's despite a $0.32 drag from fuel and currency moving against us; the aforementioned hurricane disruptions; challenges in the China market, including itinerary disruptions involving Korea; and elsewhere, ongoing geopolitical concerns preventing port calls to popular higher-yielding destinations like Turkey. Strong operational improvement contributed $0.58 per share to the bottom line year-over-year, which, when combined with $0.11 of accretion from our share repurchase program, overcame the variety of significant headwinds this year to deliver another full year earnings record. More importantly, we achieved return on invested capital of 9.4%, keeping us on track to achieve double-digit return on invested capital in 2018 and beyond.

我們實現了 2017 年全年調整後收益近 28 億美元或每股 3.82 美元。這比去年的創紀錄業績高出 0.37 美元，遠高於我們最初 12 月指導範圍 3.30 美元至 3.60 美元的高端。儘管燃料和貨幣對我們不利，但拖累了 0.32 美元；上述颶風破壞；中國市場的挑戰，包括涉及韓國的行程中斷；在其他地方，持續的地緣政治問題阻止港口停靠土耳其等受歡迎的高收益目的地。強勁的運營改善為每股盈利貢獻了 0.58 美元，加上我們的股票回購計劃帶來的 0.11 美元的增值，克服了今年的各種重大不利因素，創造了另一個全年收益記錄。更重要的是，我們實現了 9.4% 的投資資本回報率，使我們有望在 2018 年及以後實現兩位數的投資資本回報率。

These strong results affirm the efforts of our 120,000 team members whose commitment and passion enable us to exceed the expectations of nearly 12 million guests annually. And also, a credit to our tens of thousands of valued travel agent partners who support all our brands. It is through their collective efforts that we delivered such strong earnings. And we embark upon 2018 with booking volumes and pricing both ahead of prior year.

這些強勁的結果肯定了我們 120,000 名團隊成員的努力，他們的承諾和熱情使我們能夠超越每年近 1200 萬客人的期望。此外，還要感謝支持我們所有品牌的數以萬計尊貴的旅行社合作夥伴。正是通過他們的集體努力，我們實現瞭如此強勁的收益。我們在 2018 年的預訂量和定價都比上一年提前。

It was reinforcing to see another year of constant currency revenue yield growth, finishing the year up 4.5%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of healthy revenue yield improvement. We drive revenue yield growth by creating relative scarcity through each of our brands' success and increasing demand in excess of measured capacity growth via ongoing guest experience efforts coupled with our multiple brand marketing efforts and continuing public relations programs. In fact, this quarter, we launched meaningful efforts on multiple fronts, which we expect will pay dividends in 2018 and beyond.

看到連續一年的固定貨幣收入收益率增長，全年增長 4.5%，這表明收入收益率保持健康增長的一貫模式。我們通過每個品牌的成功創造相對稀缺性，並通過持續的客戶體驗工作以及我們的多個品牌營銷工作和持續的公共關係計劃，增加超過可衡量的容量增長的需求，從而推動收入收益率增長。事實上，本季度，我們在多個方面開展了有意義的努力，我們預計這些努力將在 2018 年及以後派發紅利。

On the guest experience side, just last month we debuted the OCEAN Experience Platform featuring Ocean Medallion on Regal Princess. The OCEAN Experience Platform may be the most ambitious and extensive IoT-based innovation on the planet. We're having fun seeing the guest reactions, our crew is ecstatic, and we're experiencing Net Promoter Scores among the highest in our fleet. But it is still early days and only a limited number of guests have experienced elements of Ocean Medallion so far. We're fine-tuning and enhancing the platform based on real-time learning as we prepare for a full rollout aboard Regal Princess in the first calendar quarter 2018.

在賓客體驗方面，就在上個月，我們在富豪公主號上推出了以 Ocean Medallion 為特色的 OCEAN 體驗平台。 OCEAN 體驗平台可能是地球上最雄心勃勃和最廣泛的基於物聯網的創新。我們很高興看到客人的反應，我們的工作人員欣喜若狂，我們的淨推薦值在我們的機隊中名列前茅。但目前還處於早期階段，到目前為止只有少數客人體驗過海洋勳章的元素。我們正在根據實時學習對平台進行微調和增強，以準備在 2018 年第一季度在富豪公主號上全面推出。

This past quarter, we also introduced PlayOcean, our proprietary mobile gaming portfolio. PlayOcean taps into the growing interest in mobile gaming by offering a selection of original games that can be played at home and onboard select ships. We have not just extended gaming off the ship, but we are making gaming more immersive onboard.

在上個季度，我們還推出了我們專有的移動遊戲產品組合 PlayOcean。 PlayOcean 通過提供一系列可以在家中和在特定船隻上玩的原創遊戲來挖掘人們對移動遊戲日益增長的興趣。我們不僅將游戲擴展到了船上，而且我們正在使遊戲在船上更加身臨其境。

And on the public relations front, just yesterday, we announced a new partnership with Univision to develop the first O·C·E·A·N primetime series, 'La Gran Sorpresa'. (foreign language). 'La Gran Sorpresa' will be aired in early January, well-timed to coincide the beginning of wave booking season. Univision is the country's most-watched Spanish-language TV network catering to the more than 54 million Americans who identify as Hispanic. The cruise vacation experiences shared in 'La Gran Sorpresa' align wonderfully with the core values of the Univision audience, focusing on multi-generational family, togetherness, fun and passion for life.

在公共關係方面，就在昨天，我們宣布與 Univision 建立新的合作夥伴關係，以開發第一個 O·C·E·A·N 黃金時段系列劇“La Gran Sorpresa”。 （外語）。 'La Gran Sorpresa' 將於 1 月初播出，恰逢預訂旺季的開始。 Univision 是該國收視率最高的西班牙語電視網絡，為超過 5400 萬西班牙裔美國人提供服務。在“La Gran Sorpresa”中分享的郵輪假期體驗與 Univision 觀眾的核心價值觀完美契合，專注於多代家庭、團結、樂趣和對生活的熱情。

Now this announcement comes on the heels of our launch of OceanView, our own proprietary digital streaming network featuring compelling experiential content 24/7 and currently available on major digital platforms, including Apple TV, Amazon Fire, Roku, as well as onboard our ships. OceanView launched simultaneously with our 2 new proprietary original content digital productions, GO and Local Eyes. And they build upon our 3 award-winning television shows, "The Voyager with Josh Garcia" on NBC, "Ocean Treks with Jeff Corwin" on ABC and "Vacation Creation" with Tommy Davidson and Andrea Feczko, also on ABC, all in their second season.

現在，此公告是在我們推出 OceanView 之後發布的，OceanView 是我們自己的專有數字流媒體網絡，提供 24/7 引人注目的體驗內容，目前可在主要數字平台上使用，包括 Apple TV、Amazon Fire、Roku，以及我們的船上。 OceanView 與我們的 2 款全新專有原創內容數字產品 GO 和 Local Eyes 同時推出。他們建立在我們 3 個獲獎電視節目的基礎上，即 NBC 的“航海者與喬什·加西亞”、ABC 的“傑夫·科溫的海洋跋涉”以及湯米·戴維森和安德里亞·費茲科的“假期創造”，也在 ABC 上，所有這些都在他們的第二季。

Our network series are the most popular travel-related shows on TV. Today, this increasingly popular roster of U.S. original content television programs has garnered over 100 hours of cumulative airtime and reached an audience of over 200 million viewers. Going forward, our portfolio of 7 O·C·E·A·N original series distributed across major networks, major digital streaming platforms and on our ships, ensures that over 4 million potential guests per week see that cruising is the best way to access the people, to access the places and to access the cultures of the world.

我們的網絡系列是電視上最受歡迎的旅遊相關節目。如今，這個越來越受歡迎的美國原創內容電視節目名單已累積播放時間超過 100 小時，觀眾人數超過 2 億。展望未來，我們的 7 個 O·C·E·A·N 原創系列產品組合分佈在主要網絡、主要數字流媒體平台和我們的船上，確保每週超過 400 萬潛在客人看到巡航是訪問的最佳方式人，訪問這些地方並訪問世界的文化。

Other successful PR efforts include the premiere earlier this month of the major motion picture "The Greatest Showman" on Cunard's Queen Mary 2; Holland America's featured cruises in partnership with O Magazine, including Oprah's own voyage on Eurodam in Alaska earlier this year; and in Italy, another commercial for our Costa brand featuring Shakira will launch on Christmas Day, continuing a highly successful marketing campaign, and that's just to name a few.

其他成功的公關工作包括本月早些時候在 Cunard 的瑪麗皇后 2 上首映的主要電影“最偉大的表演者”； Holland America 與 O Magazine 合作的特色遊輪，包括今年早些時候奧普拉自己在阿拉斯加的 Eurodam 航行；在意大利，另一個以夏奇拉為主角的歌詩達品牌廣告將在聖誕節推出，繼續非常成功的營銷活動，僅舉幾例。

All these efforts resulted in positive media coverage in 2017. For example, in the U.S. that was 10% above 2016's record levels and our highest share of voice to-date with Carnival Corporation brands carrying 3 quarters of the industry's positive coverage. Again, these efforts are all engineered to reach audiences multiple times in multiple ways to help drive demand for our brands, ultimately leading to higher yields.

所有這些努力都在 2017 年帶來了積極的媒體報導。例如，在美國，這比 2016 年的創紀錄水平高出 10%，我們迄今為止的最高聲音份額是嘉年華公司品牌的四分之三的行業積極報導。同樣，這些努力都旨在以多種方式多次接觸受眾，以幫助推動對我們品牌的需求，最終提高產量。

There have also been a number of significant developments in our strategic fleet enhancement plan, which is an important part of our measured capacity growth strategy, and includes replacing less efficient ships with new, more efficient vessels. During the year, we introduced 3 state-of-the-art new ships; signed agreements with Fincantieri to build 3 additional new ships; and as previously announced, our joint venture for the Chinese market with CSSC, the China State Shipbuilding Corporation, ordered for delivery in 2023 the first-ever cruise ship to be built in China. So we remain on track with our strategic fleet enhancement program and look forward to the delivery of Carnival Horizon in March, Seabourn Ovation in April as well as AIDAnova and Nieuw Statendam, both in November.

我們的戰略船隊增強計劃也取得了許多重大進展，這是我們衡量的運力增長戰略的重要組成部分，包括用新的、更高效的船舶取代效率較低的船舶。年內，我們引進了 3 艘最先進的新船；與 Fincantieri 簽署了建造 3 艘新船的協議；正如之前宣布的那樣，我們與中國船舶工業集團公司中國船舶集團公司在中國市場的合資企業訂購了第一艘在中國建造的遊輪，將於 2023 年交付。因此，我們將繼續推進我們的戰略船隊增強計劃，並期待在 3 月交付 Carnival Horizon，在 4 月交付 Seabourn Ovation 以及在 11 月交付 AIDAnova 和 Nieuw Statendam。

At the same time, we signed agreements to sell 2 ships expected to leave the fleet next spring, keeping us on pace with our historical average of removing 1 to 2 ships per year. Also, we expect net capacity growth to be 1.9% in 2018 and, in keeping with our philosophy of measured capacity growth, around 5% compound annually through 2022 as new ships replace some existing capacity.

與此同時，我們簽署了出售預計明年春天離開船隊的 2 艘船舶的協議，使我們與每年移除 1 至 2 艘船舶的歷史平均水平保持同步。此外，我們預計 2018 年淨運力增長為 1.9%，並且根據我們衡量運力增長的理念，隨著新船取代部分現有運力，到 2022 年，年復合增長率約為 5%。

We also realized a number of other accomplishments that position us further along the path to sustained double-digit return on invested capital, including 2 of our brands operating cruises to Cuba; our contemporary Carnival Cruise Line sailing from Tampa and our premium Holland America brand sailing from Fort Lauderdale; the continued rollout of our new state-of-the-art revenue management system across 6 of our brands to approximately 90% of those brands' inventory by spring of 2018 to further facilitate yield uplift. We also accelerated progress on our cost containment efforts, delivering more than $100 million of cost savings in 2017 and more than the $75 million included in our original 2017 guidance, which brings the cumulative savings to date to approximately $300 million. We're planning another $80 million of savings in 2018.

我們還實現了許多其他成就，這些成就使我們進一步走上了持續兩位數的投資資本回報率之路，包括我們的兩個品牌經營古巴遊輪；我們從坦帕出發的當代嘉年華遊輪和從勞德代爾堡出發的優質荷美品牌；到 2018 年春季，我們將繼續在我們的 6 個品牌中將新的最先進的收入管理系統推廣到這些品牌約 90% 的庫存，以進一步促進收益提升。我們還加快了成本控制工作的進展，在 2017 年節省了超過 1 億美元的成本，超過了我們最初 2017 年指導中包含的 7500 萬美元，這使迄今為止的累計節省達到約 3 億美元。我們計劃在 2018 年再節省 8000 萬美元。

Importantly, we continue to make meaningful progress on our 2020 sustainability goals focusing on environmental, safety, labor and social performance. We have already reduced our unit fuel consumption by 29% since initiating the effort. We remain committed to ongoing reduction in air emissions with, during 2017, the delivery of AIDAperla, our second cruise ship to be powered in-port by environmentally friendly liquefied natural gas; and the keeling of AIDAnova, the first of 7 all-LNG ships on order.

重要的是，我們繼續在以環境、安全、勞工和社會績效為重點的 2020 年可持續發展目標方面取得有意義的進展。自開展這項工作以來，我們已經將單位油耗降低了 29%。我們將繼續致力於持續減少空氣排放，2017 年交付了我們的第二艘使用環保液化天然氣在港口提供動力的遊輪 AIDAperla；以及訂購的 7 艘全液化天然氣船中的第一艘 AIDAnova 的龍骨。

And in 2017, we joined pledges to support the advancement of women's leadership and diversity in the workplace drafted by Catalyst, the leading global nonprofit focused on expanding opportunities for women; and to support and encourage diversity in the workplace drafted by the Executive Leadership Council, the leading global organization working to empower African-American corporate leaders. We also launched our first dedicated sustainability report website to expand our sustainability reporting. Our commitment to continuous improvement and help environment, safety and security result in our being ranked in the top quartile of the 100 Best Corporate Citizens by Corporate Responsibility Magazine, as well as recognition for our sustainability report, which was ranked #1 globally by Corporate Register.

2017 年，我們加入了支持提高女性領導力和工作場所多樣性的承諾，該承諾由 Catalyst 起草，這是一家專注於為女性擴大機會的全球領先非營利組織；並支持和鼓勵執行領導委員會起草的工作場所的多樣性，該委員會是全球領先的組織，致力於賦予非裔美國企業領導人權力。我們還推出了首個專門的可持續發展報告網站，以擴展我們的可持續發展報告。我們對持續改進和幫助環境、安全和安保的承諾使我們在企業責任雜誌評選的 100 名最佳企業公民中名列前四分之一，並獲得了我們的可持續發展報告的認可，該報告在企業名錄中全球排名第一.

We delivered in 2017 over $5.3 billion of cash from operations, returned a significant portion to shareholders. Having increased the quarterly dividend twice in the past year, we distributed a total of $1.1 billion through our annual dividend and invested another nearly $600 million in our ongoing buyback program, bringing our cumulative repurchases to-date to $3.2 billion in just over 2 years. Of course, we were able to accomplish this while maintaining our high investment-grade credit rating.

我們在 2017 年交付了超過 53 億美元的運營現金，將很大一部分返還給了股東。在過去一年兩次增加季度股息後，我們通過年度股息共分配了 11 億美元，並在我們正在進行的回購計劃中再投資近 6 億美元，使我們迄今為止的累計回購在短短兩年內達到 32 億美元。當然，我們能夠在保持高投資級信用評級的同時實現這一目標。

So in summary, in addition to our record results, we had many other great accomplishments this year to reinforce our journey to sustain double-digit return on invested capital. Looking forward, our book position is strong heading into 2018. Despite the disruption in bookings, the fundamental strength in demand enabled us to withstand the hurricane malaise, leaving us well positioned for continued revenue yield improvements in 2018, with both occupancy and price still ahead of the prior year.

因此，總而言之，除了我們創紀錄的業績外，我們今年還取得了許多其他偉大成就，以加強我們保持兩位數投資資本回報率的旅程。展望未來，我們的預訂頭寸在 2018 年保持強勁。儘管預訂中斷，但需求的基本實力使我們能夠抵禦颶風的萎靡不振，使我們能夠在 2018 年繼續提高收入，同時入住率和價格仍然領先上一年的。

On our last quarterly call, we indicated we could be patient as we waited for the recovery in bookings post-hurricanes, and I believe this approach enabled us to maintain pricing integrity while at the same time aggressively stimulating demand through, among other efforts, our industry-wide campaign, the Caribbean is open, which created 5 billion positive media impressions.

在我們上一個季度的電話會議上，我們表示我們可以耐心等待颶風過後的預訂量恢復，我相信這種方法使我們能夠保持定價的完整性，同時通過我們的其他努力等積極刺激需求整個行業的活動，加勒比是開放的，它創造了 50 億的積極媒體印象。

We are projecting revenue yield to be up another 2.5% in 2018 on top of the tougher comparisons with this year's success based on our proven demand creation and yield management efforts. At the same time, we continue to contain costs. In 2018, at the midpoint of our guidance, despite an $0.08 per share negative drag from a combination of fuel and currency, we expect to deliver an improvement in earnings of $0.33 per share. We remain committed to achieving increased consideration for cruise vacations and continued investment in our guest experience to create additional consumer demand in excess of measured capacity growth while at the same time continuing to return cash to shareholders.

基於我們經過驗證的需求創造和收益管理工作，我們預計 2018 年的收入收益率將再增長 2.5%，而今年的成功則更加艱難。與此同時，我們繼續控製成本。 2018 年，在我們指引的中點，儘管燃料和貨幣的組合帶來了每股 0.08 美元的負面拖累，但我們預計每股收益將提高 0.33 美元。我們將繼續致力於增加對郵輪假期的考慮，並繼續投資於我們的賓客體驗，以創造超出衡量容量增長的額外消費者需求，同時繼續向股東返還現金。

I am very proud of all the progress our teams have made in 2017 and I am genuinely excited for our prospects as we embark on 2018. Look, we're working very hard and we remain on track to deliver double-digit return on invested capital to shareholders in 2018.

我為我們的團隊在 2017 年取得的所有進展感到非常自豪，並且在我們開始 2018 年之際，我對我們的前景感到由衷的興奮。看，我們正在努力工作，我們仍有望實現兩位數的投資資本回報於 2018 年致股東。

With that, I'll turn the call to David.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Arnold. Before I begin, please note, all of my references to revenue, ticket prices and cost metrics will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated. I'll start today with a summary of our 2017 fourth quarter results, then I'll provide an update on current booking trends for 2018 and finish up with some color on our 2018 December guidance.

謝謝你，阿諾德。在開始之前，請注意，除非另有說明，否則我對收入、票價和成本指標的所有引用都將採用不變貨幣。我將從今天開始總結我們 2017 年第四季度的業績，然後我將提供 2018 年當前預訂趨勢的最新信息，並在我們的 2018 年 12 月指南中添加一些顏色。

Our adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.63. As Arnold indicated, this was $0.16 above the midpoint of our September guidance. The improvement was primarily revenue-driven, $0.11 favorable, as increased net ticket yields benefited from stronger pricing on close-in bookings on both sides of the Atlantic, while onboard and other yields continue to benefit from a variety of our ongoing efforts. $0.04 was due to a combination of lower net cruise costs without fuel, fuel consumption and depreciation expense. We also benefited by $0.01 from the net impact of fuel price and currency.

我們第四季度的調整後每股收益為 0.63 美元。正如阿諾德所說，這比我們 9 月指導的中點高出 0.16 美元。改善主要是由收入驅動的，有利 0.11 美元，因為淨票收益的增加得益於大西洋兩岸近距離預訂的更高定價，而機上和其他收益繼續受益於我們正在進行的各種努力。 0.04 美元是由於不含燃料、燃料消耗和折舊費用的淨巡航成本較低。我們還從燃料價格和貨幣的淨影響中受益 0.01 美元。

Now, let's turn to the fourth quarter operating results versus the prior year. Our capacity increased 1.5%. The North American brands were essentially flat while the European, Australia and Asian brands, also known as our EAA brands, were up over 3.5%. Our total net revenue yields were up 4.2%.

現在，讓我們看看第四季度的經營業績與上一年的對比。我們的產能增加了 1.5%。北美品牌基本持平，而歐洲、澳大利亞和亞洲品牌（也稱為我們的 EAA 品牌）上漲超過 3.5%。我們的總淨收入收益率增長了 4.2%。

Now, let's break apart the 2 components of net revenue yield. Net ticket yields were also up 4.2%. This increase was driven by our North American brands deployment in the Caribbean, late-season Alaska and Europe, as well as our EAA brands deployment in Europe, the Caribbean and Australia. These increases were partially offset by decreases in our China deployment, as previously indicated. Net onboard and other yields increased 4.1% with increases on both sides of the Atlantic. Net cruise cost per ALBD, excluding fuel, were up 6.1%, which was in line with our September guidance driven by higher dry-dock days, hurricane impacts and the seasonalization of other expenses between the quarters.

現在，讓我們分解淨收入收益率的兩個組成部分。門票淨收益率也上升了 4.2%。這一增長是由我們在加勒比地區、阿拉斯加和歐洲的北美品牌部署以及我們在歐洲、加勒比地區和澳大利亞的 EAA 品牌部署推動的。如前所述，這些增長部分被我們在中國部署的減少所抵消。隨著大西洋兩岸的增加，船上淨收益率和其他收益率增加了 4.1%。每艘 ALBD 的淨巡航成本（不包括燃料）增長了 6.1%，這與我們 9 月份的指引一致，原因是乾船塢天數增加、颶風影響以及季度之間其他費用的季節性變化。

In summary, our fourth quarter adjusted EPS was slightly less than last year's record fourth quarter with the strong 4.2% revenue yield improvement worth $0.19 being more than offset by $0.20 of higher costs due to the seasonalization of costs and the net unfavorable impact of fuel price and currency costing us $0.03.

總而言之，我們第四季度調整後的每股收益略低於去年創紀錄的第四季度，4.2% 的收入收益增長強勁，價值 0.19 美元，但被成本季節性化和燃油價格的淨不利影響導致的 0.20 美元成本增加所抵消。貨幣成本為 0.03 美元。

Now, let's turn to 2018 booking trends. Since November, booking volumes for 2018 have been running well ahead of last year at higher prices. At this point in time, the cumulative booking position for 2018, we are ahead of the prior year on both occupancy and price.

現在，讓我們轉向 2018 年的預訂趨勢。自 11 月以來，2018 年的預訂量一直以更高的價格遠超去年。在這個時間點，2018 年的累計預訂量，我們在入住率和價格上都領先於上一年。

Let's drill down into the cumulative book position. First, for our North American brands. The Caribbean program is behind the prior year in occupancy as a result of the disruption we saw in booking patterns for a number of weeks after the hurricanes. However, these bookings are at higher prices. As expected, since November, we have seen a normalization in the Caribbean booking patterns. The seasonal European program is considerably ahead of the prior year on both occupancy and price. Alaska is ahead of the prior year in occupancy, albeit at lower prices, primarily due to mix. Second, for our EAA brands. For European deployments, occupancy is nicely ahead at higher prices. For the Caribbean, occupancy is in line with the prior year at slightly higher prices.

讓我們深入了解累計賬面位置。首先，對於我們的北美品牌。由於颶風過後數週的預訂模式出現中斷，加勒比海項目的入住率落後於上一年。然而，這些預訂的價格更高。正如預期的那樣，自 11 月以來，我們已經看到加勒比地區預訂模式的正常化。季節性的歐洲計劃在入住率和價格上都大大領先於上一年。阿拉斯加的入住率高於去年，儘管價格較低，主要是由於混合。其次，對於我們的 EAA 品牌。對於歐洲的部署，入住率以更高的價格遙遙領先。加勒比地區的入住率與上一年持平，價格略高。

Finally, I want to provide you with some color on 2018. We are forecasting a capacity increase of 1.9%. As Arnold indicated, our book position is strong heading into 2018 despite hurricane disruptions, which positions us well for continued growth in revenue yields. For 2018, we are projecting net revenue yields to be up approximately 2.5% on top of the tougher comparisons with our prior year successes.

最後，我想為您提供一些關於 2018 年的信息。我們預測產能增長 1.9%。正如阿諾德指出的那樣，儘管颶風中斷，我們的賬面狀況在進入 2018 年時依然強勁，這使我們在收入收益率的持續增長方面處於有利地位。對於 2018 年，我們預計淨收入收益率將增長約 2.5%，與我們上一年的成功相比更加艱難。

Now, turning to costs. Net cruise cost without fuel per ALBD is expected to be up approximately 1% for 2018. Broadly speaking, there are 3 main drivers of the cost change. First, our forecast is for an average 2 points of inflation across all our cost categories globally. Second, we are planning for a slight increase in dry dock days from 470 days in 2017 to 505 days in 2018, impacting cost metrics by 0.2 point. Partially offsetting these 2 items is about 1 point of cost-saving benefit from further leveraging our scale.

現在，轉向成本。預計 2018 年每 ALBD 不含燃料的淨巡航成本將增長約 1%。從廣義上講，成本變化有 3 個主要驅動因素。首先，我們的預測是全球所有成本類別的平均通脹率為 2 個百分點。其次，我們計劃將乾船塢天數從 2017 年的 470 天小幅增加至 2018 年的 505 天，對成本指標產生 0.2 個百分點的影響。部分抵消這兩項是通過進一步利用我們的規模來節省大約 1 個百分點的成本效益。

Fuel prices and FX rates are a different picture from what we saw just 3 months ago when the 2018 year-over-year net impact of fuel and currency was a favorable $0.14. Given current fuel prices and FX rates, the 2018 year-over-year net impact of fuel and currency is now an unfavorable $0.08. This is a $0.22 swing in just 3 months. In the end, on a year-over-year basis, fuel prices moved against us $0.16, including the impact of fuel derivatives. This was partially offset by favorable impact of currency worth $0.08. Putting all these factors together, our adjusted EPS guidance for 2018 is $4 to $4.30 versus $3.82 for 2017.

燃料價格和外匯匯率與我們在 3 個月前看到的情況不同，當時燃料和貨幣的 2018 年同比淨影響為有利的 0.14 美元。鑑於當前的燃料價格和匯率，2018 年燃料和貨幣的同比淨影響現在是不利的 0.08 美元。這是僅 3 個月內 0.22 美元的波動。最後，燃料價格同比變動 0.16 美元，包括燃料衍生品的影響。這被價值 0.08 美元的貨幣的有利影響部分抵消。綜合所有這些因素，我們調整後的 2018 年每股收益指引為 4 至 4.30 美元，而 2017 年為 3.82 美元。

I will finish up by sharing with you our current rules of thumb about the impact of currency and fuel prices on our 2018 results. To start with, a 10% change in all relevant currencies relative to the U.S. dollar would impact our P&L by approximately $0.46 for the full year and $0.02 for the first quarter. For fuel price changes, a 10% change in the current stock price represents a $0.20 impact for the full year and $0.05 for the first quarter. Fuel expense in our guidance is $1.5 billion for the full year. The third rule of thumb relates to our fuel derivative portfolio. A 10% change in Brent would result in a $0.05 change in realized losses on fuel derivatives for the full year and just $0.01 for the first quarter.

最後，我將與您分享我們目前關於貨幣和燃料價格對我們 2018 年業績影響的經驗法則。首先，所有相關貨幣相對於美元的 10% 變化將影響我們全年的損益約 0.46 美元和第一季度的 0.02 美元。對於燃料價格變動，當前股價變動 10% 對全年影響 0.20 美元，對第一季度影響 0.05 美元。我們指引中的燃料費用為全年 15 億美元。第三條經驗法則與我們的燃料衍生產品組合有關。布倫特原油價格變動 10% 將導致全年燃料衍生品的已實現損失變動 0.05 美元，而第一季度僅為 0.01 美元。

And now, I will turn the call back over to Arnold.

現在，我將把電話轉回給阿諾德。

Thank you, David. Operator, please open the line for questions.

謝謝你，大衛。接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Obviously a great quarter. I wonder if you could give us a little bit more color around what drove that close-in upside in Q4 just as we think about your guidance for 2018. Because when you last guided, you were kind of well into the quarter so it seems like a lot of price uptick in that last kind of 10% to 20% of bookings, especially since it was at a period when we would have maybe expected Caribbean bookings to be disrupted. So I wonder if you could give us a little color on how much of it is your new reservation system? How much of it is maybe the FEMA charter that took supply out at the last minute or just kind of any color around what drove that?

顯然是一個很棒的季度。我想知道您是否可以在我們考慮您對 2018 年的指導時，就第四季度推動近距離上漲的原因給我們更多的色彩。因為當您上次指導時，您已經進入了本季度，所以看起來像在最後一種 10% 到 20% 的預訂中，價格大幅上漲，特別是因為當時我們可能預計加勒比地區的預訂會受到干擾。所以我想知道你能否告訴我們你的新預訂系統有多少？其中有多少可能是 FEMA 章程在最後一刻取消了供應，或者只是驅動它的任何顏色？

Robin, first of all, the FEMA charter is immaterial to yields. The ship was basically fully sold and we did it to support the recovery efforts. And there's no big benefit on that one to us financially from where we would have been otherwise. But overall, we just had strong demand in all the markets, including in the Caribbean outside of the direct hurricane-impacted areas, and so we had a strong tick-up there. The revenue management system would have all preceded all that, but of course, the fact that we were holding on prices and were so well-booked certainly contributed, but we just saw strength in a lot of markets.

Robin，首先，FEMA 章程對收益率無關緊要。這艘船基本上已經售罄，我們這樣做是為了支持恢復工作。從我們本來可以得到的經濟上，這對我們沒有太大的好處。但總的來說，我們在所有市場都有強勁的需求，包括直接受颶風影響的加勒比地區以外的地區，因此我們在那裡的需求強勁。收入管理系統將在這一切之前發生，但當然，我們堅持價格並且預訂量如此之大的事實確實有所貢獻，但我們只是在許多市場中看到了實力。

Yes. The only thing I will add to that is we also saw strength in the onboard. I indicated the onboard yields were up 4.1%, which was considerably more than we had guided to.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，我們也看到了船上的實力。我表示機載收益率上升了 4.1%，這比我們預期的要高得多。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自Stifel 的Stif Wieczynski。

I guess, the first question is around your 2.5% yield outlook for 2018. It's the same exact guidance you started 2017 with and you finished the year kind of north of 4%, which was a nice split of ticket and onboard. So, I guess, as we look to 2018, given how solid trends seem to be right now, is it fair to say that if the booking environment and the economy kind of stay in the same ballpark, there should be upside to your yield assumption? And maybe a better way of kind of asking that is if you look back to 2017 and your initial yield guidance, what was the bigger surprise to you guys in terms of how that 2.5% got to north of 4%?

我想，第一個問題是關於 2018 年 2.5% 的收益率前景。這與您在 2017 年開始時的指導完全相同，並且您完成了 4% 以上的一年，這是機票和機上的一個很好的分割。所以，我想，當我們展望 2018 年時，鑑於目前的趨勢似乎很穩固，是否可以公平地說，如果預訂環境和經濟保持在同一個球場上，你的收益率假設應該有上行空間?也許一種更好的提問方式是，如果你回顧 2017 年和你最初的收益率指導，就 2.5% 如何達到 4% 以北而言，你們更驚訝的是什麼？

Steve, look, we always give our best guidance, as you know, and we're projecting another year of strong yield on top of what is now a lot tougher comparisons because of the success we had in 2017. It's really early in the booking process. Wave season hasn't even started yet. And like every year, we do try to factor in that there will be unforeseen future events, but overall, we stand by the guidance. It is on top of tougher comparisons.

史蒂夫，看，我們總是提供最好的指導，正如你所知，由於我們在 2017 年取得的成功，我們預計在現在更加艱難的比較之上，又一年的強勁收益。現在預訂真的很早過程。浪潮季節甚至還沒有開始。和每年一樣，我們確實會嘗試考慮到未來會發生不可預見的事件，但總的來說，我們堅持指導。這是在更嚴格的比較之上。

I wouldn't say there were big surprises in 2017. It's just the way things flow. We had a lot of headwinds in 2017, as you know, and we were able to overcome them by increasing demand for the cruises and by having factored in -- anticipating there would be some unforeseen events.

我不會說 2017 年有什麼大驚喜。這只是事情的發展方式。如您所知，我們在 2017 年遇到了很多不利因素，我們能夠通過增加對遊輪的需求並考慮到這些因素來克服這些不利因素——預計會有一些不可預見的事件。

Okay. Got you. And then second question around supply growth, and that really seems to be the biggest overhang out there right now with investors. I guess, how do you guys counter that concern? And I know, Arnold, you said you think you're going to grow your capacity around 5% a year, which I would assume is on a gross basis, but that doesn't include things like possible retirements and -- which I think you said would be 1 to 2 per year -- and also the fact that a lot -- certain parts of your capacity growth are really dedicated to a very specific audience or demographic, like AIDA. So, I guess, what I'm getting here is if you kind of start stripping out all that stuff, how do you actually view your core capacity growth going forward?

好的。得到你。然後是關於供應增長的第二個問題，這似乎是目前投資者最大的懸念。我想，你們如何應對這種擔憂？而且我知道，阿諾德，你說你認為你的產能每年會增長 5% 左右，我認為這是在總的基礎上，但這不包括可能的退休和 - 我認為你說每年 1 到 2 次——而且事實上很多——你的容量增長的某些部分確實是專門針對非常特定的受眾或人口統計的，比如 AIDA。所以，我想，如果你開始剝離所有這些東西，你如何看待你的核心產能增長？

We're very comfortable with our capacity growth in the coming years. We've been consistent with our execution around measured capacity growth and we're going to stick with that. We're spreading that growth over a number of brands, an increasing number of geographic regions and we're very careful where we add capacity. Of course, we're going to try to drive yield increases at rates that we've recently achieved or even higher. In the end, that may or may not happen. We have a bit of a cushion as capacity itself is a driver for earnings growth and it's a driver for cost containment. So we can achieve similar earnings growth rates at lower rates of increases in yields. Of course, our objective, though, is to get even greater earnings growth by driving both capacity and yields.

我們對未來幾年的產能增長感到非常滿意。我們一直在圍繞衡量的容量增長執行我們的執行，我們將堅持這一點。我們正在將這種增長擴展到多個品牌，越來越多的地理區域，我們在增加產能的地方非常小心。當然，我們將嘗試以我們最近達到甚至更高的速度推動產量增長。最後，這可能會或可能不會發生。我們有一點緩衝，因為產能本身是盈利增長的驅動力，也是成本控制的驅動力。因此，我們可以以較低的收益率增長率實現類似的收益增長率。當然，我們的目標是通過提高產能和收益率來獲得更大的收益增長。

Okay. Great. And then a simple housekeeping question for Beth or David. Can we just get your capacity for -- by quarter for this year? And then, also what -- how you guys are thinking about '19 and '20 and then CapEx as well?

好的。偉大的。然後是貝絲或大衛的一個簡單的家務問題。我們能否按季度計算您今年的產能？然後，還有什麼——你們是如何考慮 19 和 20 年以及資本支出的？

Q1 is up 2.2, Q2 is 1.3, Q4 -- Q3 is 1.7, Q4 is 2.6. That's a total year of 1.9. CapEx for 2018 is $4.4 billion, 2019 is $5.1 billion, 2020 is $4.8 billion and 2021 is $3.9 billion. I think I missed one of your questions.

第一季度上漲 2.2，第二季度上漲 1.3，第四季度——第三季度上漲 1.7，第四季度上漲 2.6。總共是 1.9 年。 2018 年的資本支出為 44 億美元，2019 年為 51 億美元，2020 年為 48 億美元，2021 年為 39 億美元。我想我錯過了你的一個問題。

'19 and '20 capacity outlook?

'19 和 '20 的產能前景？

'19 is 5.5 for us and 7.4 for '20.

'19 對我們來說是 5.5，對 '20 來說是 7.4。

Anecdotally, Steve, the industry managed to 13% industry-wide growth and 11% growth plus in the Caribbean in quarter 3 of 2017 and we still drove strong yield improvement. I just want to reinforce that we're totally focused on measured capacity growth and we're totally focused on achieving and sustaining double-digit return on invested capital. So if for some reason we fail in creating the demand, then we're fully prepared to accelerate retirements. And with our scale, that matters. And so we're focused on growing earnings, not just the number of ships.

有趣的是，史蒂夫，該行業在 2017 年第三季度實現了 13% 的全行業增長和 11% 的加勒比地區增長，我們仍然推動了強勁的產量增長。我只想強調，我們完全專注於衡量產能增長，我們完全專注於實現和維持兩位數的投資資本回報。因此，如果由於某種原因我們未能創造需求，那麼我們已做好充分準備加速退休。以我們的規模，這很重要。因此，我們專注於增加收入，而不僅僅是船舶數量。

Our next question comes from the line of Harry Curtis with Nomura Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自 Harry Curtis 與 Nomura Instinet 的對話。

I wanted to just follow-up on the last question. Particularly as we look into the somewhat higher growth in -- supply growth in 2019 and 2020, are there segments that you've identified, kind of demographic segments, that are driving the new cruisers? Because, Arnold, you'd spent a decent amount of time discussing your global marketing campaigns and I'm just wondering if there are some new segments that you're actually targeting.

我只想跟進最後一個問題。特別是當我們研究 2019 年和 2020 年的供應增長有所提高時，您是否已經確定了推動新巡洋艦的人口細分？因為，阿諾德，你花了相當多的時間討論你的全球營銷活動，我只是想知道你是否真正瞄準了一些新的細分市場。

We're underpenetrated and the industry is in every market in the world, including the U.S. I'll repeat something I've told you guys many times, if you add up all the cabins in the world, they add up to less than 2% of hotel rooms in the world. And so we're still very small. Cumulatively, the cruise industry sells over 25 million people a year, but Venice attracts 24 million tourists a year, so we're just small. And so, yes, we're tapping every market segment and we sell in every generation, whether it's millennials, seniors, it doesn't matter, children. So all of those are potential markets for us.

我們的滲透率很低，這個行業遍及世界上的每一個市場，包括美國。我會重複我已經告訴你們很多次的事情，如果你把世界上所有的小屋加起來，它們加起來不到 2全球酒店客房的百分比。所以我們還很小。累積起來，郵輪業每年銷售超過 2500 萬人次，但威尼斯每年吸引 2400 萬遊客，所以我們還很小。所以，是的，我們正在開發每一個細分市場，我們在每一代人中銷售，無論是千禧一代，老年人，沒關係，孩子。所以所有這些對我們來說都是潛在的市場。

We have 9 world-leading cruise line brands. They all cater to a different psychographic market. You asked about demographics. We are distributed around the world. We even distribute it here in the United States with the Carnival brand, we sail out of different markets around the U.S. And so we subgroup the markets demographically that way, location-wise, but primarily we're focused on the guest experience and the psychographic placement.

我們擁有 9 個世界領先的郵輪品牌。它們都迎合了不同的心理市場。你問了人口統計。我們分佈在世界各地。我們甚至以嘉年華品牌在美國分銷它，我們從美國各地的不同市場出發。所以我們按人口統計的方式對市場進行分組，位置明智，但主要我們專注於客戶體驗和心理放置。

So we think there's opportunity, and we've demonstrated it so far, to continue to grow demand for cruise at a faster rate than we can grow capacity. And we do have constraints on capacity growth, a limited number of shipyards, which is a good thing in the end. And we take advantage of that to outpace demand with the capacity that's available.

因此，我們認為有機會，而且到目前為止我們已經證明了這一點，可以繼續以比我們增加容量的速度更快的速度增長對郵輪的需求。而且我們確實對產能增長有限制，造船廠數量有限，這最終是一件好事。我們利用這一點以可用容量超過需求。

And keep in mind that the backdrop is that travel and tourism has been growing about 4% a year and is expected to continue to grow at that rate. So we're in a very good position in a growing industry. And we -- as Arnold said, we expect to do very well with -- and very comfortable with our capacity growth.

請記住，旅遊和旅遊業每年增長約 4% 的背景是，預計將繼續以該速度增長。因此，我們在不斷發展的行業中處於非常有利的地位。而且我們——正如阿諾德所說，我們希望在產能增長方面做得很好——並且對我們的產能增長非常滿意。

That's terrific. And just a quick follow-up, turning to China. Arnold, do you see the market evolving into a growth market at some point in the next year or 2 as opposed to it sort of being a shoppers' commuter market?

真了不起。只是一個快速的跟進，轉向中國。 Arnold，您是否認為市場會在明年或 2 年的某個時候演變為增長市場，而不是成為購物者的通勤市場？

Yes. Look, China, we had -- the industry had a tough year in China this year, but I think the long-term prospects are outstanding. In 2018, there is going to be limited capacity growth. In fact, I think the industry is flat. We are expanding our distribution. I know others in the industry are doing the same. We're working very closely with our existing distributors there to connect that latent demand with the few ships that are there. We're still very return-focused. We have no hesitation to relocate a ship if necessary for it to overall have a more accretive return for our business. And just keep in mind it's still so small. Today, it represents only 5% of our capacity. Maybe 1 million cruise-goers out of 130 million outbound tourists in China, so everything is really tiny. To predict, I don't know, obviously, everybody's more optimistic. Things seem to be settling down a little bit with the expanded distribution. We factored in some improvement in our guidance, but we'll just have to wait and see.

是的。看，中國，我們有 - 今年中國的行業經歷了艱難的一年，但我認為長期前景非常好。 2018年，產能增長將有限。事實上，我認為這個行業是平的。我們正在擴大我們的分銷。我知道業內其他人也在做同樣的事情。我們正在與我們現有的分銷商密切合作，以將潛在需求與那裡的少數船隻聯繫起來。我們仍然非常注重回報。如果有必要，我們會毫不猶豫地重新安置一艘船，以便為我們的業務帶來更多的整體回報。請記住，它仍然很小。今天，它只占我們產能的 5%。中國1.3億出境游客中可能有100萬郵輪遊客，所以一切都非常微小。預測，我不知道，顯然，每個人都更樂觀。隨著分佈的擴大，事情似乎有所緩和。我們在指導中考慮了一些改進，但我們只能拭目以待。

I guess what I'm after is, do you see a demand in, say, the next several years where the market evolves more towards tourism and less towards shopping?

我想我所追求的是，你是否看到未來幾年市場更多地轉向旅遊而不是購物的需求？

I think, absolutely, the market is already there for tourism. You go anywhere in the world, you will find mainland Chinese behaving like tourists from any other place in the world. So yes, the cruise business started out early with a few local destinations there, close-in destinations, which were very shopping-oriented. But there's no question that mainland Chinese are showing up on ships all over the world now, not just the ships home-ported in China. And the ships home-ported in China will see, over time, itineraries expanded to go to more distant places for the purpose of tourism, versus getting a good deal on a merchandise item.

我認為，絕對地，旅遊市場已經存在。你走到世界上任何一個地方，你都會發現中國大陸人的舉止就像世界上任何其他地方的遊客一樣。所以，是的，郵輪業務很早就開始了，那裡有幾個當地的目的地，靠近的目的地，非常以購物為導向。但毫無疑問，中國大陸人現在出現在世界各地的船隻上，而不僅僅是以中國為母港的船隻。隨著時間的推移，以中國為母港的船隻將看到，為了旅遊目的，行程會擴大到更遠的地方，而不是在商品上獲得優惠。

Our next question comes from the line of Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Felicia Hendrix。

Arnold, I'm going to go at this maybe from a different angle because people want to understand this. So you faced incredible challenges in the fourth quarter. You posted better-than-expected results. So a lot of people are just wondering why we might be seeing a large deceleration in net yield growth in the first quarter. Are you assuming any kind of hurricane impact in there?

阿諾德，我可能會從不同的角度來討論這個問題，因為人們想了解這一點。所以你在第四季度面臨著難以置信的挑戰。你發布了好於預期的結果。所以很多人只是想知道為什麼我們可能會看到第一季度的淨收益率增長大幅放緩。你假設那裡有任何颶風影響嗎？

David, you kind of did talk a bit about the Caribbean is behind a bit in occupancy, but at higher prices, and I'm assuming that occupancy isn't super significant. But -- so wondering if it's just being conservative or is there fundamental reason why the first quarter should see that kind of deceleration?

大衛，你確實談到了加勒比地區的入住率有點落後，但價格更高，我假設入住率不是特別重要。但是 - 所以想知道這是否只是保守，還是第一季度應該看到這種減速的根本原因？

Well, again, we've got tougher comparisons year-to-year now, and we're giving out our best guidance. In terms of the hurricane impact, clearly, there's been some kind of impact. But frankly, the markets have recovered. It's hard for us to really identify what impact. I'm sure there are some individuals that are shying away from the Caribbean still despite the industry efforts and our efforts and each of the other cruise lines' efforts To let people know the Caribbean is open and the Caribbean is for everyone. And -- but having said that, we see continued strong bookings in the Caribbean. And we give you our best guidance, and the guidance still looks conservative. But again, there are -- we always try to factor in things that can go wrong. And obviously, a lot of things happened this year. A lot of things happen every year, and so we try to account for that.

好吧，再一次，我們現在每年都有更嚴格的比較，我們正在給出最好的指導。就颶風的影響而言，顯然存在某種影響。但坦率地說，市場已經復蘇。我們很難真正確定什麼影響。我敢肯定，儘管有行業的努力和我們的努力以及其他每家郵輪公司的努力，但仍有一些人在迴避加勒比海，讓人們知道加勒比海是開放的，加勒比海適合所有人。而且 - 但話雖如此，我們看到加勒比地區的預訂量持續強勁。我們給你最好的指導，指導看起來仍然保守。但同樣，我們總是試圖將可能出錯的事情考慮在內。顯然，今年發生了很多事情。每年都會發生很多事情，所以我們試圖解釋這一點。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, David, can you help us understand the quarterly cadences net cruise costs ex fuel for '18? So we know 2.3%. So the -- I'm sorry, 2% to 3% for the first quarter. And 1% for the full year fourth quarter, I'm assuming, faces easier comps. Perhaps that could be a negative growth rate. So just wondering if you could help us understand the cadence for yields quarterly beyond the first quarter.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，大衛，你能幫助我們了解 18 年的季度淨巡航成本（不含燃料）嗎？所以我們知道 2.3%。所以 - 對不起，第一季度為 2% 到 3%。我假設全年第四季度的 1% 面臨更容易的競爭。也許這可能是負增長率。所以只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們了解第一季度之後的季度收益率的節奏。

Sure. The increase in dry-dock days is really driven in the second quarter. So it wouldn't surprise me if the second quarter was up probably double the first quarter on a per ALBD basis. But you will see a significant decline in net cruise costs in the back half of the year as a result of the lower dry-dock days, particularly in the fourth quarter.

當然。幹船塢天數的增加實際上是在第二季度推動的。因此，如果第二季度按 ALBD 計算可能是第一季度的兩倍，我不會感到驚訝。但是，由於乾船塢天數減少，特別是在第四季度，您將看到今年下半年的淨遊輪成本顯著下降。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then, Beth, just can you give us the D&A and interest expense guidance for the first quarter and the full year 2018?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，貝絲，您能給我們提供 2018 年第一季度和全年的 D&A 和利息費用指導嗎？

D&A is $460 million to $470 million for the first quarter and $2.02 billion for the year. Interest is $40 million to $50 million for the quarter and $180 million to $190 million for the year.

第一季度的 D&A 為 4.6 億美元至 4.7 億美元，全年為 20.2 億美元。本季度利息為 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元，全年利息為 1.8 億至 1.9 億美元。

Our next question comes from the line of David Beckel with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 David Beckel。

I think I'll actually take a stab at Q1 for the third time here, just a slightly different way. But my question is an amalgamation of a couple comments you made about bookings since November being quite a bit faster than last year and occupancy in the Caribbean being behind. I'm wondering if the current pace does continue, say, indefinitely through Q1, at what point would you be caught up on occupancy in the Caribbean?

我想我實際上會在這裡第三次嘗試第一季度，只是方式略有不同。但我的問題是您關於自 11 月以來的預訂速度比去年快很多且加勒比地區的入住率落後的幾條評論的合併。我想知道目前的速度是否會繼續，比如說，無限期地持續到第一季度，你會在什麼時候趕上加勒比地區的入住率？

As Felicia had indicated, I mean, we're not talking about a significant difference in occupancy. We did say it was behind. We are getting good booking trends. They are -- they have returned to normal, and so we're just in very small range of differences here. And as I had indicated, the prices are up, so we feel very comfortable with our guidance for the first quarter. And as we have told everybody, it is our best guess, and we will continue to work hard to do better.

正如費利西亞所說，我的意思是，我們不是在談論入住率的顯著差異。我們確實說它落後了。我們正在獲得良好的預訂趨勢。他們是 - 他們已經恢復正常，所以我們在這裡只是在很小的差異範圍內。正如我所指出的，價格上漲了，所以我們對第一季度的指導感到非常滿意。正如我們已經告訴大家的那樣，這是我們最好的猜測，我們將繼續努力做得更好。

We don't have any concerns at this point, though, about the momentum or the bookings in the Caribbean. We're doing very well there, and we're pacing things the way we want to pace them, and we feel really good about it.

不過，我們目前對加勒比地區的勢頭或預訂量沒有任何擔憂。我們在那裡做得很好，我們正在按照我們想要的節奏來調整節奏，我們對此感覺非常好。

That's great. And second question about the revenue management system. I can imagine it's probably impossible to try to quantify exactly the extent to which that helped your yields this year, but it does seem to be a nice source of potential upside that investors can think about for next year. Is there any way you can try to dimensionalize the impact for us, either on basis points or just conceptually how it'll help you -- or to the extent to which it will help you in 2018 versus 2017 outside of it just being rolled out on more (multiple speakers)

那太棒了。第二個關於收入管理系統的問題。我可以想像，試圖準確量化這對今年的收益率有多大幫助可能是不可能的，但它似乎確實是投資者明年可以考慮的潛在上行空間的一個很好的來源。有什麼方法可以嘗試對我們的影響進行維度化，無論是在基點上還是在概念上它會如何幫助你 - 或者它在 2018 年與 2017 年對你的幫助程度，剛剛推出更多（多位發言者）

Well, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to cut you off. Finish what you were asking. I'm sorry.

好吧，對不起，我不是故意要打斷你的。完成你所要求的。對不起。

Oh, no. I was done.

不好了。我已經完成了。

Okay. Yes, conceptually, we can answer it. We won't dimensionalize it with percentages or anything. But conceptually, we're going to go to 90% of the inventory for those 6 brands going through the process utilized on that tool in the spring. So we're going to have a lot more inventory going forward being impacted in 2018 with the whole system, which includes the tool, the new revenue management tool. So we're expecting, obviously, that to be a positive contributor. And again, we've given the guidance for the year. So -- but the bottom line is we're 4 to 5 in our beliefs of achieving what we've said, because of the incremental amount of inventory that's going to be moving through the system that includes that tool.

好的。是的，從概念上講，我們可以回答它。我們不會用百分比或任何東西對其進行維度化。但從概念上講，我們將在春季通過該工具上使用的流程處理這 6 個品牌的 90% 的庫存。因此，2018 年我們將有更多的庫存受到整個系統的影響，其中包括工具，新的收入管理工具。因此，顯然，我們期望這將成為一個積極的貢獻者。再一次，我們給出了今年的指導。所以 - 但底線是我們對實現我們所說的目標的信念是 4 到 5，因為將通過包含該工具的系統移動的庫存量增加。

I would like to add that in -- by the spring when it's rolled out, a lot of 2018 will be behind us. So to the extent that we have a bigger benefit in 2019 from the tool itself. Keep that in mind.

我想補充一點——到春天推出時，很多 2018 年都將過去。因此，如果我們在 2019 年從工具本身中獲得更大的收益。記在腦子裡。

Thank you, Beth.

謝謝你，貝絲。

Our next question comes from the line of James Hardiman with Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 James Hardiman。

Not sure if you have any more insight than we do in terms of South Korea, maybe get an update there. And I guess, what does it look like if South Korea opens up over the course of the year? Are there going to be other costs associated with switching back over to some of those destinations? Is it assumed that you would more than offset that with any yield benefit? And I guess, what, if anything -- how do you factor that into guidance, if at all?

不確定您是否比我們對韓國有更深入的了解，也許可以在那裡獲得更新。我猜，如果韓國全年開放會是什麼樣子？切換回其中一些目的地是否會產生其他成本？是否假設您會用任何收益收益來抵消這一點？我想，如果有的話，那是什麼——如果有的話，你如何將其納入指導？

Yes, I think anything that allows more destinations and encourages travel is a positive, clearly. Itinerary planning has been set. That doesn't mean that things wouldn't change if there were opportunities to do so. So opening it up would only be a positive. How much of a positive, it's hard to say at this point. It would depend on a number of factors. But I'll say about what I said before, keep in mind, it's overall about 5% of our capacity. We're planning -- we accommodate a lot in the guidance, and so something like that would just be a small incremental positive, probably wouldn't be able to measure it in the end.

是的，我認為任何允許更多目的地和鼓勵旅行的東西都是積極的，很明顯。行程規劃已定。這並不意味著如果有機會，事情就不會改變。因此，開放它只會是積極的。多少積極，目前很難說。這將取決於許多因素。但我會說一下我之前說過的話，請記住，這大約是我們容量的 5%。我們正在計劃——我們在指導中容納了很多東西，所以這樣的東西只是一個小的增量積極因素，最終可能無法衡量它。

And in the end, I mean, that's -- it's a forecast. And we always get a bunch of small positives and a bunch of small negatives. We're not all-knowing, and we give you the best guidance we can. So hopefully, it does open up and that materializes for us.

最後，我的意思是，這是 - 這是一個預測。我們總是得到一堆小的正面和一堆小的負面。我們並非無所不知，我們會為您提供最好的指導。所以希望它確實開放並為我們實現。

But generally, unlike taking South Korea offline, which presumably was a hit to yields, by changing existing itineraries, you're not going to take a yield hit? If anything, you should get a yield benefit, correct?

但總的來說，不像讓韓國下線，這可能會影響收益率，通過改變現有的行程，你不會受到收益率的影響嗎？如果有的話，您應該獲得收益收益，對嗎？

I don't think we'd change anything to take a yield hit. That's not normally in our modus operandi. So we would definitely expect an improvement.

我不認為我們會改變任何東西來打擊產量。這通常不是我們的作案手法。所以我們肯定會期待改進。

And we could do that relatively quickly as well, change itineraries in -- over time.

我們也可以相對快速地做到這一點，隨著時間的推移改變行程。

Got it. And then as I look to the rest of the world, this is the first year in a while that established markets are getting all over the capacity. Is there anything that you're seeing that suggests that any of these established markets are choking on that capacity? The guide looks pretty encouraging, but obviously, that capacity doesn't all come on at the same time. So as you look to maybe portions of the year where new ships are coming online in the Caribbean or in Europe, are you seeing any weakness in pricing trends as that happens?

知道了。然後，當我放眼世界其他地區時，這是一段時間內成熟市場的第一年產能過剩。您是否看到任何跡象表明這些成熟市場中的任何一個都在扼殺這種能力？該指南看起來非常令人鼓舞，但顯然，這種能力並不是同時出現的。因此，當您展望一年中可能會有新船在加勒比海或歐洲上線時，您是否看到定價趨勢出現任何疲軟？

We control our capacity increases. As we mentioned, we got only 1.9% in 2018. And we, as you know, book well out and well ahead. So the quick answer to your question is no, we don't see any weakness or anything. But of course, we monitor very closely. The assets are mobile, and we will do what we need to do. But at this point in time, absolutely, things are, as we've indicated, positive.

我們控制我們的產能增加。正如我們所提到的，我們在 2018 年僅獲得了 1.9%。而且，如您所知，我們預訂得很好，而且遙遙領先。所以對你的問題的快速回答是否定的，我們沒有看到任何弱點或任何東西。但是，當然，我們會非常密切地監控。資產是可移動的，我們將做我們需要做的事情。但在這個時間點上，正如我們所指出的，事情絕對是積極的。

Our next question comes from the line of Greg Badishkanian with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Greg Badishkanian。

When you reported third quarter results back in September, you noted that cumulative bookings were well ahead year-over-year on price and occupancy for the first half of 2018. In this quarter, you mentioned that the full year 2018 was ahead of prior year at higher prices. So I'm just wondering the different phrasing. Is that just because the different time periods that you're comparing are just not comparable? And also, just how do you feel now about 2018 versus back in September? How much more confident are you of achieving or beating that 2.5% net yield?

當您在 9 月份報告第三季度業績時，您指出 2018 年上半年的價格和入住率的累計預訂量均遠超去年同期。在本季度，您提到 2018 年全年均高於上年以更高的價格。所以我只是想知道不同的措辭。這僅僅是因為您正在比較的不同時間段沒有可比性嗎？而且，你現在對 2018 年和 9 月的感覺如何？您對實現或超過 2.5% 的淨收益率有多大信心？

Yes. Keep in mind, we use adjectives to try to just give a relative sense of things, but we have to have a point in which we cut the adjective off. So you can -- you're talking about very small nuances and small changes from one period to the other. The difference being in September, I quoted the first half of the year. This year, I quoted the full year. But we're really dealing with very small changes. In terms of our confidence in 2018, we were confident in 2018 back in September. We're even more confident now. It's a quarter later. We've got a lot more bookings on the books for 2018. Prices are higher. The booking momentum, particularly in the Caribbean, has normalized itself. So we feel very good about 2018. The only big difference between September and today was the -- what I talked about, about fuel and currency. There was a big swing in my comments. I indicated that between fuel and currency from 3 months ago to today.

是的。請記住，我們使用形容詞只是為了給出事物的相對意義，但我們必須有一個點將形容詞切掉。所以你可以——你說的是從一個時期到另一個時期的細微差別和微小變化。不同的是在九月，我引用了上半年。今年，我引用了全年。但我們確實在處理非常小的變化。就我們對 2018 年的信心而言，我們在 9 月對 2018 年充滿信心。我們現在更有信心了。四分之一之後。我們在 2018 年的預訂量更多。價格更高。預訂勢頭，特別是在加勒比地區，已經正常化。所以我們對 2018 年感覺非常好。9 月和今天唯一的大區別是 - 我談到了燃料和貨幣。我的評論有很大的波動。我表示從 3 個月前到今天的燃料和貨幣之間。

Just to pile on a little bit. We're at a better book position year-over-year and feel really good about that. When you hear the adjectives and stuff, relative rates of growth and all that come into play. But overall, we're in a better book position. We definitely, as David said, feel even better about the guidance now than we would have a quarter ago, and I'm looking forward to a great 2018.

只是為了堆積一點。與去年相比，我們處於更好的書籍位置，對此感覺非常好。當您聽到形容詞和其他東西時，相對增長率以及所有這些都在起作用。但總的來說，我們處於更好的書籍位置。正如大衛所說，我們現在對指導的感覺肯定比一個季度前更好，我期待著一個偉大的 2018 年。

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Conder with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的蒂姆康德。

A couple more, and I think looking more to '19 because, obviously, a lot of the itineraries are set for '18 and barring any emergency needed change. But looking to '19, you've started to roll out a few of these. What are your thoughts? We're seeing a little bit of hints, but what are your thoughts on returning portions to the Eastern Med? Which historically and the Eastern Med has provided a higher yield than the Western Med. And then, I guess, just in general also, what you're seeing for '18 on Southern European sourcing? How has that trended over the last year? Because that had been one of the weakest areas from a source market perspective for the industry over the last couple of years.

還有一些，我認為更多的是 19 年，因為很明顯，很多行程都是為 18 年設定的，除非有任何緊急需要的改變。但展望 19 年，您已經開始推出其中的一些。你覺得呢？你有沒有什麼想法？我們看到了一些提示，但是您對將部分歸還給東部地中海有何想法？從歷史上看，東方地中海提供了比西方地中海更高的產量。然後，我想，一般來說，您對 18 年的南歐採購有何看法？去年的趨勢如何？因為在過去幾年中，從客源市場的角度來看，這一直是該行業最薄弱的領域之一。

Yes. Concerning the 2019 and returning to the Eastern Med, you're right. I mean, those are some of the higher yielding itineraries. We would love to have them back. At this point in time, we just have to monitor and see what happens. The world is a volatile and ever-changing place. And in the end, we take guests where they're willing to go and they want to go, and so we're cautiously optimistic but don't feel comfortable predicting at this point.

是的。關於 2019 年並回到東方醫學，你是對的。我的意思是，這些是一些收益較高的行程。我們很樂意讓他們回來。在這個時間點，我們只需要監控並看看會發生什麼。世界是一個多變且不斷變化的地方。最後，我們將客人帶到他們願意去和想去的地方，所以我們謹慎樂觀，但在這一點上不方便預測。

And as far as your second question is concerned, in Southern Europe, remember that our Costa brand, their focus is on Southern Europe: Italy, France and Spain. We've talked about -- we don't go into details by brand. But a number of times, we've talked about seeing an improving economy in the southern part of Europe. For a long time, we had talked about it bouncing along the bottom, but we have started to see some improvement. And we've seen Costa has done very well in 2017, and we expect it to do well in 2018 in addition. So we're comfortable and very confident and happy to see the improvement in that part of the world.

至於你的第二個問題，在南歐，請記住我們的 Costa 品牌，他們的重點是南歐：意大利、法國和西班牙。我們已經討論過——我們不會按品牌詳細介紹。但是，我們多次談到歐洲南部的經濟正在改善。很長一段時間以來，我們一直在談論它在底部反彈，但我們已經開始看到一些改進。我們已經看到 Costa 在 2017 年表現非常出色，我們預計它在 2018 年也會表現出色。所以我們很舒服，非常有信心，也很高興看到世界那個地區的進步。

Okay. And along that line, David or Arnold, whoever wants to take this, the booking curve. How is the booking curve on a year-over-year basis? It sounds like given the -- you're booked at higher levels of occupancy globally. Sounds like it's still stretching out. But just any color as to where that is? And then on fuel, looks like your fuel collars that you've had in place for a few years will finally roll off post '18. Any update of internal thoughts as it relates to hedging, collaring? Anything going forward with fuel that you can share?

好的。沿著這條線，大衛或阿諾德，谁愿意接受這個，預訂曲線。同比的預訂曲線如何？聽起來，鑑於您在全球範圍內的入住率更高。聽起來它還在伸展。但只是任何顏色，它在哪裡？然後在燃料方面，看起來你已經使用了幾年的燃料項圈最終會在 18 年後推出。與對沖、套利相關的內部想法有什麼更新嗎？有什麼可以分享的燃料嗎？

Thank you. Yes, concerning hedging and collaring, we've never hedged. We have done the collars. We -- as you point out, we have them through 2018. We'll monitor it closely. We do it to protect against spikes and rises in fuel costs, primarily from a cash management standpoint and what have you. So we'll look at our overall situation and make a determination about beyond 2018. And we look at it constantly, so we'll stay on that. But right now, we are covered through 2018, as you pointed out, but we've never hedged and at this point in time have no intention to.

謝謝你。是的，關於對沖和套利，我們從來沒有對沖過。我們已經完成了項圈。我們——正如你所指出的，我們將在 2018 年之前將它們保留下來。我們將密切關注它。我們這樣做是為了防止燃料成本的飆升和上升，主要是從現金管理的角度和你擁有什麼的角度來看。所以我們會審視我們的整體情況，並在 2018 年之後做出決定。我們會不斷地審視它，所以我們會堅持下去。但是現在，正如您所指出的，我們已經覆蓋到 2018 年，但我們從未對沖，目前也無意進行對沖。

So -- and as far as the booking curve is concerned, I mean, we did say we were further ahead than last year. But again, we keep on evaluating our book position. We're always looking for the optimal point in the booking curve, and that changes over time. And so we'll continue to push out the booking curve as long as it makes economic sense, and we'll continue to look at how to maximize revenue by balancing price versus occupancy at all points in the booking curve.

所以 - 就預訂曲線而言，我的意思是，我們確實說我們比去年更領先。但同樣，我們繼續評估我們的賬面位置。我們一直在尋找預訂曲線中的最佳點，並且隨著時間的推移而變化。因此，只要符合經濟意義，我們將繼續推出預訂曲線，我們將繼續研究如何通過平衡預訂曲線中所有點的價格與入住率來最大化收入。

Would you say it's optimized at this point? I mean, does it make sense to push it out further?

你會說它在這一點上進行了優化嗎？我的意思是，進一步推動它有意義嗎？

I'll take that one. It's never optimized. We're always trying to get to that. Hopefully, asymptotically, we're approaching optimization but we're not there yet, so we're constantly chasing it.

我會拿那個。它從未優化過。我們一直在努力做到這一點。希望，漸近地，我們正在接近優化，但我們還沒有，所以我們一直在追逐它。

We're in complete agreement on that. We'll never get to an optimal point. Always can do better.

我們完全同意這一點。我們永遠不會達到最佳點。總是可以做得更好。

Our next question comes from the line of Jared Shojaian with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

So what EPS level do you need for double-digit ROIC? Is it the midpoint of your guidance? Because I'm kind of struggling to get there. If the invested capital denominator's going up, which I would think it would be with over $4 billion in CapEx next year? So can you help me think about that a little bit?

那麼兩位數的ROIC需要什麼EPS水平呢？它是你指導的中點嗎？因為我有點難以到達那裡。如果投資資本分母上升，我認為明年的資本支出將超過 40 億美元？所以你能幫我考慮一下嗎？

Yes, you're right. The midpoint of the guidance would definitely have us at double digit, and the high end of the range would put us comfortably above, and the lower end of the range would cause us to scramble to get to the actual goal of double digit.

你是對的。指導的中點肯定會讓我們處於兩位數，範圍的高端會讓我們輕鬆高於，範圍的低端會讓我們爭先恐後地達到兩位數的實際目標。

Given the $34 billion, $35 billion investment base we have, takes about $350 million to add 1 point of ROIC. Or 1/10 of a point is $35 million, which is roughly $0.05, give or take. So that's just some rules of thumb that you can go by. But I will caution you, because our balance sheet does move with currency, so all -- just as our P&L does. So all of these numbers move over time and these calculations we made or the currency levels that we have included in our guidance in the press release.

鑑於我們擁有 340 億美元、350 億美元的投資基礎，大約需要 3.5 億美元才能增加 1 個點的投資回報率。或者一個點的 1/10 是 3500 萬美元，大約是 0.05 美元，給予或接受。所以這只是你可以遵循的一些經驗法則。但我會提醒你，因為我們的資產負債表確實會隨著貨幣變化，所以一切——就像我們的損益表一樣。因此，所有這些數字都會隨著時間的推移而變化，我們所做的這些計算或我們在新聞稿中的指導中包含的貨幣水平。

Okay. And can you just confirm, are you ahead on rate and occupancy for each quarter of 2018? And then can you just help us think about the yield cadence by quarter for next year?

好的。您能否確認一下，您在 2018 年每個季度的房價和入住率方面是否領先？然後你能不能幫我們想想明年按季度的產量節奏？

Yes. We are ahead for each quarter. But at this point, it is a little early to give guidance for each of the quarters. The first -- the guidance for the first quarter, the midpoint was 2% in comparison to the 2.5% for the full year. So we are looking to do a -- our guidance includes better yields in the first quarter, in the second, third and fourth. But it's a little early for us to try to break that down by quarter. Wave season hasn't even started yet, and there's a lot left to go, so I'm hesitant to give that kind of detailed guidance.

是的。我們每個季度都領先。但在這一點上，為每個季度提供指導還為時過早。第一個 - 第一季度的指導，中點為 2%，而全年為 2.5%。因此，我們正在尋求做一個——我們的指導包括第一季度、第二、第三和第四季度的更高收益率。但我們現在嘗試按季度細分還為時過早。 Wave賽季還沒有開始，還有很多事情要做，所以我很猶豫要不要給出那種詳細的指導。

Okay. And if I could just sneak one quick one in here. Your 2018 guidance, the gap between the as reported and the constant cruise cost is larger than the gap between the as reported and constant yields. That's normally very unusual so can you just explain what's going on there?

好的。如果我能在這裡偷偷摸摸一個。您在 2018 年的指導中，報告的和恆定巡航成本之間的差距大於報告的和恆定收益率之間的差距。這通常很不尋常，所以你能解釋一下那裡發生了什麼嗎？

The one thing -- you will see differences there over time, and a lot of it has to do with how much is on the books in what currency. Because when we get the payments, the currency gets locked in, so there are some differences there that can be reflected over time.

一件事——隨著時間的推移，你會看到那裡的差異，這在很大程度上與賬簿上的貨幣數量有關。因為當我們收到付款時，貨幣就被鎖定了，所以隨著時間的推移會出現一些差異。

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes with SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Patrick Scholes。

Wonder if you can provide a little bit more on the recent trends in booking and pricing for China. I'm wondering how that has -- what the trajectory has been, how that has been for you over the last 3 months as it relates to cruises in 2018?

想知道您能否提供更多有關中國預訂和定價的最新趨勢的信息。我想知道這是怎麼回事 - 軌跡是什麼，在過去的 3 個月裡，與 2018 年的巡航有關，你的情況如何？

So we have been making lots of changes in China, as Arnold discussed. We're talking about increasing the number of distributors. We've moved away from charters and more towards group business. And so overall, as Arnold had indicated, with the lower capacity next year, we were looking to see improvements in China. We're seeing them in booking patterns, and we expect to see hopefully that in the actual results as the year progresses.

因此，正如阿諾德所說，我們一直在中國做出很多改變。我們正在談論增加分銷商的數量。我們已經從包機轉向團體業務。因此，總體而言，正如阿諾德所說，隨著明年產能下降，我們希望看到中國的改善。我們在預訂模式中看到了它們，我們希望隨著時間的推移在實際結果中看到這一點。

Okay. Second question here, you talked on the prepared remarks about strength in onboard spending over the past quarter. Were there any particular promotions or programs that drove it? Any new ones that we can see continuing over the next year?

好的。這裡的第二個問題，你談到了關於過去一個季度船上支出實力的準備好的評論。是否有任何特定的促銷或計劃推動了它？明年我們可以看到任何新的繼續嗎？

There were a variety of things in all areas. I mean, beverage, casino, shore excursions, I mean, lots of different things, retail shops where we've done throughout the year. And by the way, we're not stopping. I mean we've got a lot of efforts going on. I don't know if you saw the recent press release on Carnival Cruise Lines, all the different things they're doing on the retail side. So our teams continue to focus on that, and we believe there's a lot of opportunity in 2018 and beyond.

所有領域都有各種各樣的事情。我的意思是，飲料、賭場、岸上游覽，我的意思是，很多不同的東西，我們全年都在做的零售店。順便說一句，我們不會停止。我的意思是我們已經做了很多努力。我不知道你是否看過嘉年華郵輪公司最近發布的新聞稿，他們在零售方面所做的所有不同的事情。所以我們的團隊繼續專注於此，我們相信 2018 年及以後會有很多機會。

In the 45-plus year history of the company, it's only been 1 year where onboard revenues didn't increase year-over-year, and I'd say we have a number of initiatives underway now that should keep that trend going in the positive direction. Rate of increase and stuff -- that bounces around a little bit, but we'll be growing onboard revenues.

在公司 45 多年的歷史中，只有 1 年的船上收入沒有同比增長，我想說我們現在有許多舉措正在進行中，應該會保持這種趨勢在積極的方向。增長率和東西 - 反彈一點點，但我們將增加船上收入。

Our final question will come from the line of Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research Company.

我們的最後一個問題將來自克利夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel。

You mentioned a return to normal in terms of booking demand. Can you help us better understand what the trajectory of that has been? Was it a bounce back in October? Or has it been a more linear build each month?

您提到預訂需求恢復正常。你能幫助我們更好地了解它的軌跡嗎？ 10月份反彈了嗎？還是每個月都有一個更線性的構建？

Yes, the hurricanes hit in early to mid-September, and we saw the disruptions. And so basically, the disruptions occurred in late September and October, and it bounced back. And by the time -- what we were indicating is by the time we got back to early November, we had seen a return to a normalized pattern.

是的，颶風在 9 月初至中旬襲擊，我們看到了破壞。所以基本上，中斷發生在 9 月下旬和 10 月，然後又反彈了。到那時 - 我們所表明的是，當我們回到 11 月初時，我們已經看到了正常化模式的回歸。

I think the critical thing was being patient. Obviously, with the hurricanes, there was a disruption. We lost several weeks of what would have otherwise have been bookings, and the trick was to stay patient and not overreact to it. And our teams did that, and we're seeing the benefit of that now. So I really appreciate -- any follow-up question on that? Are you okay?

我認為關鍵是要有耐心。顯然，颶風帶來了破壞。我們失去了幾個星期的預訂，訣竅是保持耐心，不要對此反應過度。我們的團隊做到了，我們現在看到了這樣做的好處。所以我真的很感激——對此有任何後續問題嗎？你還好嗎？

Yes, I do have. Just thinking longer term into '19 and '20 when capacity becomes a larger portion of the mix, can you remind us how to think about any potential yield benefit from new premium yielding hardware?

是的，我有。只是考慮到 '19 和 '20 的更長期，當容量成為組合的更大一部分時，你能提醒我們如何考慮新的優質產量硬件帶來的任何潛在產量收益嗎？

Yes. Well, there is a lift for sure with the -- because of economies of scale and cabin mix and so on and so forth, especially as we also retire out some of the less efficient vessels. So there's absolutely a contribution to yield from that. But obviously, the bigger contribution is going to be creating the demand in excess to the supply. And clearly, you can hear from the comments in the call earlier, we're very much focused on that, and you can see it out in the marketplace everywhere. So our goal is to keep cruise out in a positive way, touch people multiple times, multiple ways at least a week, hopefully, a day. So that when it comes time for them to think about a holiday or a vacation, that they consider cruise. We know we're helping the industry overall to do that, but because of our position in the industry, we know we benefit disproportionately when we do that. And so that is our focus along with cost-containment and smart capital management.

是的。好吧，由於規模經濟和客艙組合等等，肯定會有提升，尤其是當我們還淘汰了一些效率較低的船隻時。因此，絕對可以從中獲得收益。但顯然，更大的貢獻將是創造供過於求的需求。很明顯，您可以從之前電話會議中的評論中聽到，我們非常關注這一點，您可以在任何地方的市場上看到它。因此，我們的目標是以積極的方式進行巡遊，至少每週以多種方式與人接觸多次，希望是一天。因此，當他們考慮假期或假期時，他們會考慮遊輪。我們知道我們正在幫助整個行業做到這一點，但由於我們在行業中的地位，我們知道當我們這樣做時，我們會獲得不成比例的收益。這也是我們關注成本控制和智能資本管理的重點。

Okay. I want to thank you all for being with us. A sincere happy holidays to everyone. Thank you for your interest in Carnival Corporation. We're focused on delivering double-digit return on invested capital in 2018, achieving or beating the guidance, and we look forward to talking to you guys in between in the next quarter earnings call. Thank you.

好的。我要感謝大家與我們在一起。真誠的祝大家節日快樂。感謝您對嘉年華公司的關注。我們專注於在 2018 年實現兩位數的投資資本回報，實現或超過指導，我們期待在下一季度財報電話會議期間與你們交談。謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開您的線路。