嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth-quarter 2016 earnings conference call. I am Arnold Donald, president and CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc. Thank you all for joining us this morning and a heartfelt happy holidays, everyone.

大家早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2016 年第四季度財報電話會議。我是 Carnival Corporation & plc 的總裁兼首席執行官 Arnold Donald。感謝大家今天早上加入我們，祝大家節日快樂。

Today I am joined by our chairman, Micky Arison; by David Bernstein, our chief financial officer; and by Beth Roberts, senior vice president - investor relations.

今天，我們的主席 Micky Arison 加入了我的行列；我們的首席財務官大衛伯恩斯坦；以及投資者關係高級副總裁 Beth Roberts。

Before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

在我開始之前，請注意我們對這次電話會議的一些評論將是前瞻性的。因此，我必須向您推薦今天新聞稿中的警告聲明。

We finished the year with another record quarter of adjusted earnings, which were $0.17 per share or 34% higher than the prior year. Exceeding the midpoint of guidance by $0.10 per share and leading to the highest full-year earnings in our Company's history. We achieved full-year 2016 adjusted earnings of $2.6 billion or $3.45 per share. That is $500 million or [28% per share]( sic) higher than last year and more than double 2013 earnings of $1.55.

我們以另一個創紀錄的季度調整後收益結束了這一年，每股收益為 0.17 美元，比上年增長 34%。超過指導中點每股 0.10 美元，並導致我們公司歷史上最高的全年收益。我們實現了 2016 年全年調整後收益 26 億美元或每股 3.45 美元。這比去年高出 5 億美元或 [每股 28%]（原文如此），是 2013 年盈利 1.55 美元的兩倍多。

More importantly, we achieved return on invested capital of 9% and doubled our 2013 return on invested capital of 4.5%. We are pleased to have delivered for our shareholders doubled earnings and doubled return on invested capital in just three short years.

更重要的是，我們實現了 9% 的投資資本回報率，並將 2013 年 4.5% 的投資資本回報率翻了一番。我們很高興在短短三年內為我們的股東帶來了翻倍的收益和翻倍的投資回報。

Strong operational improvement contributed $0.55 per share to the bottom line year over year, which when combined with $0.14 of accretion from our share repurchase program enabled us to exceed the high end of our original December guidance range of $3.10 to $3.40 per share. And that is despite an $0.18 drag from fuel and currency both moving against us.

強勁的運營改善為每股盈利貢獻了 0.55 美元，加上我們的股票回購計劃增加了 0.14 美元，使我們超過了我們最初 12 月指導範圍的高端，即每股 3.10 美元至 3.40 美元。儘管燃料和貨幣都對我們不利，但拖累了 0.18 美元。

These strong results are a credit to the commitment and to the passion of our 120,000 team members, which when coupled with the support from our valued travel agent partners enabled us to overcome the significant obstacles encountered this past year, including the rare occurrence of a simultaneous negative from fuel and currency; a series of global geopolitical events in Turkey, Paris, and Brussels; as well as concerns around Zika and Brexit.

這些強勁的結果歸功於我們 120,000 名團隊成員的承諾和熱情，再加上我們尊貴的旅行社合作夥伴的支持，使我們能夠克服過去一年遇到的重大障礙，包括罕見的同時發生燃料和貨幣的負面影響；在土耳其、巴黎和布魯塞爾發生的一系列全球地緣政治事件；以及對寨卡病毒和英國退歐的擔憂。

It is through their collective efforts that we delivered record earnings in 2016 and are gaining momentum as we embark on 2017 with booking volumes and pricing both well ahead of the prior year.

正是通過他們的共同努力，我們在 2016 年實現了創紀錄的收益，並且隨著我們開始 2017 年的預訂量和定價都遠超前一年，我們正在獲得動力。

It was reinforcing to see constant currency revenue yield growth this year of roughly 4% inclusive of the previously disclosed 1% accounting change on top of the over 4% improvement achieved last year. We enjoyed ticket price improvements for both our North American and our EAA brands, with particularly robust ticket price improvements again in our core Caribbean deployment.

在去年實現超過 4% 的改善基礎上，今年固定貨幣收入收益率增長約 4%，其中包括先前披露的 1% 的會計變化，這一點令人振奮。我們的北美和 EAA 品牌的票價都得到了改善，在我們的核心加勒比地區部署中再次獲得了特別強勁的票價改善。

We drove revenue yield growth by creating relative scarcity through our brand team success in increasing demand in excess of our measured capacity growth via our ongoing guest experience efforts coupled with our continuing public relations efforts. In fact, we recently created three original TV programs that are airing on major US networks, having already reached more than 40 million viewers during the large family-oriented programming blocks.

我們通過持續的客戶體驗努力以及持續的公共關係努力，通過我們的品牌團隊成功地增加需求超過了我們衡量的容量增長，從而推動了收入收益率的增長。事實上，我們最近製作了三個原創電視節目，在美國主要網絡上播出，在面向家庭的大型節目塊中已經吸引了超過 4000 萬觀眾。

They are designed to entertain, to educate, and to engage viewers by showcasing exciting adventures, exotic cultures, beautiful ships, and popular global destinations. With almost 80 original episodes, the new experiential series use compelling and authentic storytelling to share the powerful way travel by sea connects people, places, and cultures around the world while prominently featuring each of our brands.

它們旨在通過展示令人興奮的冒險、異國文化、美麗的船隻和受歡迎的全球目的地來娛樂、教育和吸引觀眾。新的體驗系列擁有近 80 集原創劇集，採用引人入勝且真實的故事講述方式，分享海上旅行將世界各地的人、地方和文化聯繫起來的強大方式，同時突出展示我們的每個品牌。

Not only are we experiencing very high appeal ratings at number one or number two in their respective time slots, but we also achieving even more favorable consumer perception of our brands. This successful programming comes on the heels of many impactful shows aired earlier this year: in the UK a reality-based TV series on board Regal Princess, The Cruise, and P&O Cruises Battlechefs onboard Britannia; in Italy Bravo Chef on board our Costa ships and on Costa Fortuna a major motion picture, [Holidays in the Caribbean]; in North America, Carnival Cruise Lines was featured on Wheel of Fortune for a full week and featured on the Ellen Degeneres Show.

我們不僅在各自的時間段內獲得了非常高的吸引力評級，排名第一或第二，而且我們還獲得了消費者對我們品牌的更好看法。這一成功的節目緊隨今年早些時候播出的許多有影響力的節目之後：在英國，在 Regal Princess、The Cruise 和不列顛尼亞號上的 P&O Cruises Battlechefs 上播放了真人秀電視連續劇；在意大利，我們的歌詩達郵輪上的 Bravo 廚師和歌詩達財神號上的一部大型電影，[加勒比假期]；在北美，嘉年華郵輪公司在財富之輪上展出了整整一周，並在艾倫德傑尼勒斯秀上展出。

We have many more opportunities already in the pipeline for next year to keep cruising in the forefront of vacationers' minds, including the new Celebrity Apprentice airing on NBC in February during wave season, our peak booking period. All of these efforts promote consideration around the globe by prominently featuring amazing cruise experiences on our world-leading cruise lines.

明年我們已經有更多機會繼續在度假者的頭腦中巡遊，包括新的名人學徒在 2 月份的波浪季節（我們的預訂高峰期）在 NBC 播出。所有這些努力都通過在我們世界領先的遊輪航線上突出展示令人驚嘆的遊輪體驗來促進全球的考慮。

In fact, our brands accounted for over 70% of the industry's positive media coverage. This includes our historic voyage to Cuba when we became the first US cruise operator in over 40 years to bring US cruise guests directly from the US to Cuba, with over 55 billion very positive media impressions and paving the way for others in our industry to follow. At this time, we are proud to have more sailings scheduled to Cuba than any other major US operator.

事實上，我們的品牌佔行業正面媒體報導的 70% 以上。這包括我們歷史性的古巴之旅，當時我們成為 40 多年來第一家將美國郵輪客人直接從美國帶到古巴的美國郵輪運營商，擁有超過 550 億次非常積極的媒體印象，並為我們行業的其他人鋪平了道路.目前，我們很自豪能夠安排比任何其他美國主要運營商更多的飛往古巴的航班。

Moreover, our phenomenal guest experience it just gets better and better each year as we continue to deliver on consumer expectations, achieving further improvement in our net promoter scores.

此外，隨著我們繼續滿足消費者的期望，我們非凡的客戶體驗每年都變得越來越好，進一步提高了我們的淨推薦值。

We also introduced three new flagships in 2016 including Carnival Vista, which celebrated its US arrival in November with an onboard concert by country music superstar Carrie Underwood supporting Operation Homefront and with Miss USA, herself military, as the godmother and including 700 military families invited as guest of honor. Carnival Vista was designed specifically for our fun-loving Carnival Cruise Line guests with an onboard brewery experience, entertaining IMAX theater, and exhilarating sky ride experience.

我們還在 2016 年推出了三款新旗艦店，包括嘉年華 Vista，慶祝其於 11 月抵達美國，鄉村音樂巨星 Carrie Underwood 支持 Homefront 行動，美國小姐作為教母，包括 700 名軍人家庭受邀參加。榮譽嘉賓。嘉年華遠景專為熱愛狂歡的嘉年華郵輪乘客而設計，提供船上啤酒廠體驗、娛樂性 IMAX 影院和令人振奮的空中騎行體驗。

Holland America's Koningsdam christened in Rotterdam by her Majesty Queen Maxima of the Netherlands delivers a new premium experience where our guests can blend their own wine or dance the night away in our carefully engineered Music Walk showcasing Lincoln Center Stage, Billboard Onboard and B.B. King's Blues Club.

荷蘭美國的 Koningsdam 由荷蘭女王馬克西瑪在鹿特丹命名，提供全新的優質體驗，我們的客人可以混合自己的葡萄酒或在我們精心設計的 Music Walk 中跳舞，展示林肯中心舞台、Billboard Onboard 和 B.B. King's Blues Club .

AIDAprima, the first of the next generation platform, resonates with AIDA's nearly exclusively German guests, combining leading edge of our (inaudible) attributes with exceptional gift experiences including racing waterslides, a lazy river, climbing walls and expensive German spa, and an ice rink for skating, for hockey for curling, and even a traditional Christmas market.

AIDAprima 是下一代平台中的第一個，與 AIDA 幾乎完全是德國客人產生共鳴，將我們（聽不清）屬性的前沿與非凡的禮物體驗相結合，包括賽車滑水道、漂流河、攀岩牆和昂貴的德國水療中心和溜冰場用於滑冰，用於冰壺曲棍球，甚至是傳統的聖誕市場。

Newbuilds will provide additional demand creation opportunities in 2017 as well, beginning with the recent delivery of Encore for our ultraluxury brand Seabourn. Designed by Adam Tihany in keeping with the feel of a luxury yacht, Seabourn Encore sets a new standard in ultraluxury cruising featuring 300 elegant suites, The Grill, a new restaurant by three-star Michelin chef Thomas Keller, and the debut of a new mindful living program with Dr. Andrew Weil.

Newbuilds 也將在 2017 年提供額外的需求創造機會，從最近為我們的超豪華品牌 Seabourn 交付的 Encore 開始。 Seabourn Encore 由 Adam Tihany 設計，與豪華遊艇的感覺保持一致，為超豪華巡航樹立了新標準，擁有 300 間優雅的套房、The Grill、米其林三星級廚師 Thomas Keller 的新餐廳，以及新的 Mindful 首次亮相Andrew Weil 博士的生活計劃。

Later next year we will welcome AIDAperla in Germany and of course Majestic Princess, the first ship purpose built for Chinese cruisers, demonstrating our commitment to grow the cruise industry in China, which remains an embryonic market with vast untapped potential. We expect to continue to profitably grow our presence in China and throughout Asia for many years to come.

明年晚些時候，我們將在德國迎來 AIDAperla，當然還有為中國巡洋艦建造的第一艘船“Majestic Princess”，這表明我們致力於在中國發展郵輪業，中國仍是一個具有巨大潛力的新興市場。我們希望在未來的許多年裡繼續以盈利的方式擴大我們在中國和整個亞洲的業務。

When it comes to ships, newbuilds are not the only way to stimulate demand creation though. We continue to invest in our existing fleet to further enhance guest experiences, including the recent remastering of Cunard's Queen Mary 2 and the continued rollout of Carnival Cruise Lines Fun Ship 2.0 to now over 60% of the Carnival Cruise Lines fleet.

不過，就船舶而言，新造船並不是刺激需求創造的唯一途徑。我們繼續投資現有船隊，以進一步提升賓客體驗，包括最近對 Cunard 的瑪麗皇后 2 號的重新製作以及嘉年華遊輪遊輪 2.0 的持續推出，目前超過 60% 的嘉年華遊輪船隊。

On January 5 we will kick off the year by unveiling our latest guest experience innovations at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. We are privileged to be the first travel company ever to be invited to provide the opening keynote address at CES, where we will showcase using our leading-edge technology, offering a new option for our guests for a true breakthrough in unobtrusive high-touch and personalized travel at scale.

1 月 5 日，我們將在拉斯維加斯的消費電子展上展示我們最新的賓客體驗創新成果，開啟新的一年。我們很榮幸成為有史以來第一家受邀在 CES 上提供開幕主題演講的旅遊公司，我們將在其中展示我們的領先技術，為我們的客人提供一個新的選擇，在不顯眼的高觸感和大規模的個性化旅行。

Furthermore we launched our new state-of-the-art revenue management system this past year, positioning us well to drive incremental revenue yield growth over time. The rollout of the system across six of our brands is expected to be completed by early 2018. We have already benefited from the sharing of best practices and we expect this new yield management tool to begin to facilitate yield uplift in 2017 and even more so in 2018.

此外，我們在過去一年推出了新的最先進的收入管理系統，使我們能夠很好地推動收入收益率隨著時間的推移而增長。該系統在我們六個品牌中的部署預計將於 2018 年初完成。我們已經從最佳實踐的分享中受益，我們預計這種新的產量管理工具將在 2017 年開始促進產量提升，在2018 年。

We continue to accelerate progress on our cost-containment efforts, delivering $95 million in cost savings in 2016. That is $20 million more than the $75 million included in our original 2016 guidance, and bringing the cumulative savings to date to over $190 million. Work continues on our cost-containment efforts that we believe present a multiyear opportunity to further leverage our scale, including another over $75 million of savings planned in 2017.

我們繼續加快成本控制工作，在 2016 年節省了 9500 萬美元的成本。這比我們最初 2016 年指導中的 7500 萬美元多出 2000 萬美元，使迄今為止的累計節省超過 1.9 億美元。我們繼續努力控製成本，我們認為這為進一步利用我們的規模提供了多年的機會，包括計劃在 2017 年再節省超過 7500 萬美元。

In addition, we continue to make meaningful progress on our 2020 sustainability goals, focusing on our environmental, safety, labor and social performance. Having already reduced our unit fuel consumption by 28% since initiating the effort, we remain committed to ongoing reduction in air emissions. Just this year, AIDAprima became the first cruise ship in the world to be powered by environmentally friendly liquefied natural gas.

此外，我們繼續在 2020 年可持續發展目標方面取得有意義的進展，重點關注我們的環境、安全、勞工和社會績效。自啟動這項工作以來，我們已經將單位油耗降低了 28%，我們仍然致力於持續減少空氣排放。就在今年，AIDAprima 成為世界上第一艘以環保液化天然氣為動力的遊輪。

We are committed to continuous improvement in health, environmental, safety, and security, which is not only so critical to our freedom to operate but also to our future success. This year we introduced industry-leading shoreside technology to monitor real-time navigational performance and energy use across our fleet. We opened our significantly expanded Arison Maritime Center in the Netherlands delivering state-of-the-art maritime training through cutting edge bridge and engine room simulators and curriculum.

我們致力於持續改進健康、環境、安全和安保，這不僅對我們的經營自由至關重要，而且對我們未來的成功也至關重要。今年，我們引入了行業領先的岸上技術，以監控我們船隊的實時航行性能和能源使用情況。我們在荷蘭開設了顯著擴大的阿里森海事中心，通過尖端的橋樑和機艙模擬器和課程提供最先進的海事培訓。

In 2016 we delivered over $5 billion in cash from operations and returned more than half to shareholders, having distributed $1 billion through our annual dividend and investing over $2 billion in our ongoing share repurchase program. As a testament to the strength of our operating performance, we were able to accomplish this while also getting back our A- and A3 credit ratings from S&P and Moody's. We plan to continue to return excess cash and more to shareholders in 2017 with our credit metrics at the better end of our targeted range.

2016 年，我們從運營中交付了超過 50 億美元的現金，並將一半以上的資金返還給了股東，通過我們的年度股息分配了 10 億美元，並在我們正在進行的股票回購計劃中投資了超過 20 億美元。作為我們經營業績實力的證明，我們能夠實現這一目標，同時還從標準普爾和穆迪恢復了我們的 A- 和 A3 信用評級。我們計劃在 2017 年繼續向股東返還超額現金及更多現金，我們的信用指標處於目標範圍的更好端。

Now looking forward, there are large addressable markets with low penetration all over the world including North America and new markets in Asia were economic growth has raised discretionary income levels, fueling increased demand for vacations. We are focused on growing our top line and have numerous innovations underweight to foster cruise demand in the years ahead.

現在展望未來，包括北美在內的全球都有大量低滲透率的潛在市場和亞洲的新市場，因為經濟增長提高了可自由支配的收入水平，從而推動了對假期的需求增加。我們專注於增加我們的收入，並在未來幾年內進行多項創新以促進郵輪需求。

Our booking trends are strong heading into 2017, positioning us well for continued growth in revenues. In 2017 we are projecting revenue yields up another 2.5% on top of the tougher comparisons with our prior-year success, based on our proven demand-creation and yield-management efforts. At the same time, we will continue to contain costs.

進入 2017 年，我們的預訂趨勢強勁，為我們的收入持續增長做好了準備。基於我們久經考驗的需求創造和收益管理努力，我們預計 2017 年的收入收益將再增長 2.5%，而與上一年的成功相比更加艱難。同時，我們將繼續控製成本。

In 2017 at the midpoint of our guidance, we expect to deliver an improvement in earnings of $0.43 per share. However, at current rates that is offset by $0.43 per share impact from fuel and currency. We remain committed to achieving increased consideration for cruise vacations and continued investment in the guest experience to create additional consumer demand in excess of measured capacity growth.

2017 年，在我們指引的中點，我們預計每股收益將提高 0.43 美元。但是，以當前匯率計算，燃料和貨幣對每股 0.43 美元的影響抵消了這一影響。我們將繼續致力於增加對郵輪假期的考慮，並繼續投資於客戶體驗，以創造超出衡量容量增長的額外消費者需求。

We remain committed to responsibly containing costs. We remain committed to returning value to shareholders and despite the unusual occurrence of both fuel and currency working against us at the same time, we remain committed to achieving sustained double-digit return on invested capital within two years.

我們仍然致力於負責任地控製成本。我們仍然致力於為股東回報價值，儘管燃料和貨幣同時對我們不利的情況不尋常的發生，我們仍然致力於在兩年內實現持續的兩位數投資資本回報。

With that, I will turn the call over to David.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Arnold. Before I begin, please note all of my references to revenue, ticket prices, and cost metrics will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated. I will start today with a summary of our 2016 fourth-quarter results. Then I will provide some insights on current booking trends and finish up with some color on our 2017 December guidance.

謝謝你，阿諾德。在我開始之前，請注意，除非另有說明，否則我對收入、票價和成本指標的所有引用都將採用不變貨幣。我將在今天開始總結我們 2016 年第四季度的業績。然後，我將提供一些關於當前預訂趨勢的見解，並為我們的 2017 年 12 月指南添加一些色彩。

Our adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.67. This was $0.10 above the midpoint of our September guidance. The improvement was almost all operational, driven by a number of factors. $0.04 came from net ticket revenue yields, which benefited from stronger pricing on close-in bookings on both sides of the Atlantic, while the remaining $0.06 was an accumulation of a variety of items such as improved fuel consumption and lower depreciation expense.

我們第四季度的調整後每股收益為 0.67 美元。這比我們 9 月指導的中點高 0.10 美元。在許多因素的推動下，改進幾乎都是可操作的。 0.04 美元來自淨機票收入收益率，這得益於大西洋兩岸近距離預訂的更高定價，而剩餘的 0.06 美元是各種項目的累積，例如改善燃料消耗和降低折舊費用。

Now let's turn to the fourth-quarter operating results versus the prior year. Our capacity increased over 4%. The North American brands were up almost 3%, while the European, Australia, and Asian brands -- also known as our EAA brands -- were up over 6%. Our total net revenue yields were up 4.1%.

現在讓我們看看第四季度的經營業績與上一年的對比。我們的產能增加了 4% 以上。北美品牌上漲了近 3%，而歐洲、澳大利亞和亞洲品牌（也稱為我們的 EAA 品牌）上漲了 6% 以上。我們的總淨收入收益率增長了 4.1%。

Now let's break apart the two components of the net revenue yield. Net ticket yields were up 5.2%. This increase was driven by our North American brands' deployment in the Caribbean and Alaska as well as our EAA brands' deployment in Europe. Net onboard and other yields increased 1.3%, in line with our guidance, as our current initiatives continue to pay dividends while our brands develop new initiatives for 2017 and beyond.

現在讓我們分解淨收入收益率的兩個組成部分。門票淨收益率上升 5.2%。這一增長是由我們的北美品牌在加勒比和阿拉斯加的部署以及我們的 EAA 品牌在歐洲的部署推動的。船上淨收益率和其他收益率增長 1.3%，符合我們的指導意見，因為我們當前的舉措繼續帶來紅利，而我們的品牌也在為 2017 年及以後製定新舉措。

Net cruise cost for ALBD excluding fuel were up 1%, which was in line with our September guidance. In summary, our fourth-quarter adjusted EPS was $0.17 higher than the prior year driven by higher net revenue yields worth $0.17 and the accretive impact of the stock repurchase program worth $0.04, both of which were partially offset by the unfavorable net impact of lower fuel prices and currency worth $0.04.

不包括燃料的 ALBD 的淨巡航成本上升了 1%，這與我們 9 月份的指導一致。總而言之，我們的第四季度調整後每股收益比上年高 0.17 美元，這是由於淨收入收益率增加了 0.17 美元，股票回購計劃的增值影響價值 0.04 美元，這兩者都被燃料下降的不利淨影響部分抵消了價格和貨幣價值 0.04 美元。

Now let's turn to 2017 booking trends. Since September, both booking volumes and prices for the first three quarters of 2017 have been running well ahead of the prior year. At this point in time, for the first three quarters of 2017 cumulative advanced bookings are well ahead at considerably higher prices.

現在讓我們轉向 2017 年的預訂趨勢。自 9 月以來，2017 年前三個季度的預訂量和價格均遠超去年。目前，2017 年前三個季度的累計提前預訂量以相當高的價格遙遙領先。

Now let's drill down into the cumulative book position. First, for our North America brand, Caribbean occupancy is ahead of the prior year at nicely higher prices. For Alaska, both occupancy and prices are well ahead of the prior year. If you want to go to Alaska next summer, I suggest you book early as the remaining inventory is going fast.

現在讓我們深入了解累計賬面位置。首先，對於我們的北美品牌而言，加勒比地區的入住率比去年高得多。對於阿拉斯加來說，入住率和價格都遠超前一年。如果你想明年夏天去阿拉斯加，我建議你儘早預訂，因為剩餘庫存很快。

For the seasonal European program, occupancy is in line with the prior year at nicely higher prices.

對於季節性的歐洲計劃，入住率與上一年持平，價格更高。

Secondly, for our EAA brands, for European deployment occupancy is well ahead of the prior year at nicely higher prices. For the Caribbean deployment for our EAA brands occupancy is lower than the prior year at prices that are in line. However, prices on bookings over the last quarter are well ahead of the prior year, clearly an improving trend.

其次，對於我們的 EAA 品牌而言，歐洲部署的入住率遠遠高於去年，價格也大幅上漲。對於我們 EAA 品牌在加勒比地區的部署，入住率低於上一年，價格符合預期。然而，上一季度的預訂價格遠高於去年同期，顯然是一種改善趨勢。

Finally I went to provide you with some color on 2017. We are forecasting a capacity increase of 2.6%. As Arnold indicated, our booking trends are strong heading into 2017, positioning us well for continued growth in revenue yields. For 2017 we are projecting net revenue yields up approximately 2.5% on top of the tougher comparisons from our prior-year success. For the full year, we are expecting to see yield improvement in almost all itineraries.

最後我去給大家2017年的一些顏色。我們預測產能增長2.6%。正如阿諾德所說，進入 2017 年，我們的預訂趨勢強勁，為我們的收入持續增長做好了準備。對於 2017 年，我們預計在與上一年的成功進行更嚴格的比較之後，淨收入收益率將增長約 2.5%。全年，我們預計幾乎所有行程的收益都會有所提高。

Now turning to cost, net cruise cost without fuel per ALBD are expected to be up approximately 1% for 2017. Broadly speaking, there are three major drivers of the cost change. First our forecast is for 1.5 points of inflation across all of our categories globally.

現在轉向成本，預計 2017 年每 ALBD 不含燃料的淨巡航成本將增長約 1%。從廣義上講，成本變化的三個主要驅動因素。首先，我們的預測是全球所有類別的通脹率為 1.5 個百分點。

Second, we are planning for an increase in drydock days from 366 days in 2016 to nearly 450 in 2017, impacting our cost metrics by a half a point. As we have indicated on previous conference calls, the drydock days will vary each year but probably average around 450 to 475 days given the current size of our fleet.

其次，我們計劃將乾船塢天數從 2016 年的 366 天增加到 2017 年的近 450 天，對我們的成本指標影響半個百分點。正如我們在之前的電話會議中所指出的那樣，每年的干船塢天數都會有所不同，但考慮到我們目前的船隊規模，可能平均在 450 到 475 天左右。

Partially offsetting these two items, we are forecasting about a point of cost-saving benefit as we further leverage our scale. Given the volatility of fuel prices and FX rates over the past year, the 2017 year-over-year impact is an unfavorable $0.43 with both fuel and currency moving against us. $0.27 for fuel prices including the impact of fuel derivatives and $0.16 for currency.

部分抵消這兩個項目，我們預測隨著我們進一步利用我們的規模，節省成本的好處點。鑑於過去一年燃料價格和外匯匯率的波動，2017 年的同比影響為不利的 0.43 美元，燃料和貨幣都對我們不利。包括燃料衍生品的影響在內的燃料價格為 0.27 美元，貨幣為 0.16 美元。

Putting all of these factors together, our adjusted EPS guidance for 2017 is $3.30 to $3.60 versus the $3.45 we did in 2016. I will finish up by sharing with you our current rules of thumb about the impact that currency and fuel prices can have on our 2017 results. To start with, a 10% change in all relevant currencies relative to the US dollar would impact our P&L by approximately $0.34 for the full year and $0.04 for the first quarter.

綜合所有這些因素，我們調整後的 2017 年每股收益指引為 3.30 美元至 3.60 美元，而 2016 年為 3.45 美元。最後，我將與您分享我們目前關於貨幣和燃料價格可能對我們產生的影響的經驗法則。 2017 年結果。首先，所有相關貨幣相對於美元的 10% 變化將影響我們全年的損益約 0.34 美元和第一季度的 0.04 美元。

For fuel price changes, a 10% change and the current spot price represents a $0.17 impact for the full year and $0.04 for the first quarter. Fuel expense in our guidance is $1.2 billion for the full year. The third rule of thumb relates to our fuel derivatives portfolio. A 10% change in Brent would result in a $0.06 in replace losses on fuel derivatives for the full year and $0.01 for the first quarter.

對於燃料價格變化，10% 的變化和當前現貨價格對全年的影響為 0.17 美元，對第一季度的影響為 0.04 美元。我們指引中的燃料費用為全年 12 億美元。第三條經驗法則與我們的燃料衍生產品組合有關。布倫特原油價格變動 10% 將導致全年燃料衍生品替換損失 0.06 美元，第一季度損失 0.01 美元。

And now I will turn the call back over to Arnold.

現在我將把電話轉回給阿諾德。

Thank you, David. And now, operator, let's open it up for questions.

謝謝你，大衛。現在，接線員，讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

（操作員說明）Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

So could you --? If you look at your yield guidance for next year of basically 2.5%, could you give a little more color and break that down in terms of what you guys are looking for both on the price and then the onboard side as well?

那你能——？如果你看一下明年基本為 2.5% 的收益率指導，你能否給出更多的顏色，並根據你們在價格和車載方面的需求來細分它？

Directionally onboard would be comparable in terms of the percent change year-to-year and comparable to prior year.

就年度變化百分比和上一年的變化而言，定向板載將具有可比性。

Okay. And then second question around your book position. You said you are in a better position at this point for 2017 than you were for this point for 2016. Can you give a little more color on that and maybe give a little bit more color into some of your geographies as well? Next year specifically talk about what you are seeing with China even though it is a pretty short booking window?

好的。然後是關於你的書位置的第二個問題。你說你在 2017 年的這一點上比你在 2016 年的這一點處於更好的位置。你能在這方面多加一點顏色，也許也給你的一些地區多一點顏色嗎？明年具體談談你在中國看到的情況，儘管它的預訂窗口很短？

Yes, I would say with China things are looking great, but as you know it is a B2B business. But we feel very comfortable in China. We obviously ended up with good returns this year. We are expecting good returns again next year. But things are very positive. But it is B2B. So we still have traditional charters and subcharters to complete and then we have to see the year figure through. Dave, do you want to add some comment on the --?

是的，我想說中國的情況看起來不錯，但正如你所知，這是一項 B2B 業務。但是我們在中國感覺很舒服。顯然，我們今年最終獲得了不錯的回報。我們期待明年再次獲得良好的回報。但事情是非常積極的。但它是B2B。所以我們仍然有傳統的章程和子章程要完成，然後我們必須看到這一年的數字。戴夫，你想對--添加一些評論嗎？

Yes. Overall, Steve, I went through in my notes all of the different areas of the globe both for the North American brands as well as the EAA brands. Arnold touched on China. Remember, China is a late booking market and as a result of that it is early.

是的。總的來說，史蒂夫，我在筆記中瀏覽了全球所有不同地區的北美品牌和 EAA 品牌。阿諾德談到了中國。請記住，中國是一個遲到的預訂市場，因此它是早期的。

Australia, which I didn't mention, we are in good shape in Australia as well. It is a small piece of our business not nearly as large as the other pieces I mentioned. So overall booking trends are good and we are very encouraged.

澳大利亞，我沒有提到，我們在澳大利亞的狀態也很好。這是我們業務的一小部分，遠沒有我提到的其他部分那麼大。因此，整體預訂趨勢良好，我們深受鼓舞。

And that is across the board, Steve.

這是全面的，史蒂夫。

Okay. So if you looked at your book position for the full Company right now versus where it was last year it is -- would you use the word significantly ahead?

好的。因此，如果您現在查看整個公司的賬面位置與去年的位置相比，您會使用“顯著領先”這個詞嗎？

Well, we said the overall book position is well ahead at considerably higher prices.

好吧，我們說整體賬面狀況在相當高的價格下遙遙領先。

Okay, got you. Thanks a lot, guys.

好的，明白了。非常感謝，伙計們。

Felicia Hendrix, Barclays.

費利西亞亨德里克斯，巴克萊。

Thanks for taking my questions. So just to kind of stay on how you are thinking about the globe and your -- and how you could perform next year, obviously the outlook on the Caribbean is positive but we -- despite you and some of your competitors and travel agents also all talking about the Caribbean looking positive for next year, there still seems to be concerned about some of the supply increases particularly in the second and third quarter. So I was just wondering if you could address the demand that you are seeing and the Caribbean despite the increased supply and why you are so confident that you will see growth there next year.

感謝您提出我的問題。因此，請繼續關注您對全球的看法和您的 - 以及明年的表現如何，顯然加勒比地區的前景是積極的，但我們 - 儘管您和您的一些競爭對手和旅行社也都談到加勒比地區明年的前景樂觀，似乎仍然擔心一些供應增加，特別是在第二和第三季度。所以我只是想知道，儘管供應增加，你是否能解決你所看到的需求和加勒比海地區，以及為什麼你如此有信心明年在那裡看到增長。

Sure. Good morning, Felicia. Yes, I guess the industry capacity overall is going to be up 6% next year in the Caribbean and we are going to be up 5% roughly. But again, we have actually had less inventory to book now than we did at this point in time last year.

當然。早上好，費利西亞。是的，我猜明年加勒比地區的整體行業產能將增長 6%，我們將大致增長 5%。但同樣，我們現在預訂的庫存實際上比去年這個時間點要少。

So we feel very strong at this point. We still have to get through wave season. It is still early. But things are looking very positive. And all of our indicators are we -- our brands have done a great job of creating demand, especially our Carnival brand has continued to outperform in the Caribbean and did again this year.

所以我們在這一點上感覺非常強大。我們仍然必須度過波浪季節。現在還早。但事情看起來非常積極。我們所有的指標都是我們——我們的品牌在創造需求方面做得很好，尤其是我們的嘉年華品牌在加勒比地區繼續表現出色，今年再次表現出色。

For us, we have added some new capacity primarily in the form of the Carnival Vista. The ship is spectacular. She is going to command premium yields and premium booking position and have demonstrated that already. So we have every confidence. The other good news for us is we have such a large base especially in the Carnival brand of previous cruisegoers that when we introduce a new ship because we don't tend to do it every year, we have a large base of previous cruisers set to book with us.

對我們來說，我們主要以嘉年華 Vista 的形式增加了一些新容量。這艘船很壯觀。她將獲得溢價收益和溢價預訂頭寸，並且已經證明了這一點。所以我們有信心。對我們來說，另一個好消息是我們擁有如此龐大的基地，尤其是在以前的巡洋艦嘉年華品牌中，當我們推出一艘新船時，因為我們不傾向於每年都這樣做，我們有一個龐大的以前的巡洋艦基地設置為與我們預訂。

So our dependence on new-to-cruise, while we still need new-to-cruise, is not overweighted. So we feel very confident at this point based on what we see in the Caribbean.

因此，我們對新郵輪的依賴，雖然我們仍然需要新郵輪，但並沒有過分重視。因此，基於我們在加勒比地區看到的情況，我們在這一點上感到非常自信。

Thanks. And, Arnold, while I have you, I thought your comment that you are committed to returning double digit ROIC within the next two years despite the current FX and fuel headwinds was impressive. So just wondering if you could help us understand maybe some things that you would be doing beyond your already identified cost savings to ensure that goal.

謝謝。而且，阿諾德，雖然我有你，但我認為你的評論是，儘管目前的外彙和燃料逆風，你仍致力於在未來兩年內實現兩位數的投資回報率。因此，只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您可能會在已經確定的成本節約之外做的一些事情，以確保實現這一目標。

No, absolutely. I think first of all it is a headwind to have obviously currency and fuel both move against you at the same time, which has rarely ever happened before. And it is happening with a pretty significant impact, obviously. Having said that, we also have a lot of momentum on a number of fronts not just on cost containment but in driving yield and with some small capacity addition that helps us as well.

不，絕對。我認為首先，顯然貨幣和燃料同時對你不利，這是一個逆風，這在以前很少發生。顯然，它正在發生相當重大的影響。話雖如此，我們在許多方面也有很大的動力，不僅在成本控制方面，而且在提高產量方面，以及一些小容量的增加對我們也有幫助。

But we had multiple paths all along. When we declared double digit, fuel prices were much higher than they were the last few years. And we are now looking at next year at basically being on balance net of fuel and currency where we were when we declared double-digit return on invested capital. So we have no reason to back off from that goal. We have multiple pathways including obviously increased yields but also in terms of managing more efficiently.

但我們一直有多條路徑。當我們宣布兩位數時，燃油價格比過去幾年高得多。而且我們現在正在考慮明年基本保持平衡，即我們宣布投資資本回報率達到兩位數時的狀態。所以我們沒有理由放棄這個目標。我們有多種途徑，包括明顯提高產量，以及更有效地管理。

Then all of the tools we have in place. We have a new revenue -- new management tool in place that will begin to kick in and we will see the full effect on about half of our brands by 2018. We have done a lot of work and the brands have in creating additional demand. We have a lot more cruise scores in our base of previous cruise scores.

然後是我們擁有的所有工具。我們有一個新的收入——新的管理工具將開始發揮作用，到 2018 年，我們將看到對我們大約一半品牌的全面影響。我們已經做了很多工作，品牌在創造額外需求方面也做了很多工作。在我們以前的巡航分數的基礎上，我們有更多的巡航分數。

We have much more collaboration and coordination and communication across our brands to not only contain cost to help us manage costs, as you see reflected in the cost guidance, but also frankly to share best practices and drive yield further. So we have a number of things in place we have a lot of momentum and we are committed and we will deliver.

我們在品牌之間有更多的協作、協調和溝通，不僅可以控製成本以幫助我們管理成本，正如您在成本指南中看到的那樣，而且還坦率地分享最佳實踐並進一步提高產量。所以我們有很多事情已經到位，我們有很大的動力，我們承諾，我們將交付。

Thanks. And then just finally housekeeping, Beth. Can you give us the D&A and interest expense guidance for the first quarter of 2017 and the full year of 2017 and the quarterly capacity increases?

謝謝。然後最後是家務，貝絲。您能否給我們提供 2017 年第一季度和 2017 年全年以及季度產能增加的 D&A 和利息費用指導？

That interest is running about $50 million a quarter, $200 million for the year. That is net of capitalized net of income. Depreciation is running $450 million in the first quarter, $1.850 billion for the year and quarterly derivative are running $47 million in the first quarter, $185 million for the year. That is the realized derivatives.

該利息每季度約為 5000 萬美元，全年為 2 億美元。這是扣除資本化收入後的淨額。第一季度折舊為 4.5 億美元，全年為 18.50 億美元，第一季度季度衍生品為 4700 萬美元，全年為 1.85 億美元。那就是已實現的衍生品。

The quarterly capacity projections are 4% for the first quarter, 3.6% for the second, 1.2% for the third, and 2% even for the fourth quarter for 2.5% on the year.

季度產能預測為第一季度為 4%，第二季度為 3.6%，第三季度為 1.2%，第四季度為 2%，全年為 2.5%。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Tim Conder, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國銀行證券的蒂姆·康德。

A couple here, gentlemen, Beth. First of all, a little more color, Beth. It has been hit on the first two questions here the geographic color. David, you talked about the European occupancy for the EAA brands as well ahead at nicely higher prices. Can you break that down a little bit between Med and ex-Med? And then just again sort of recap in you thought process on the EAA brands looking into the Caribbean?

這裡有一對夫婦，先生們，貝絲。首先，多一點顏色，貝絲。這裡的前兩個問題是地理顏色。大衛，你談到了 EAA 品牌在歐洲的入住率以及更高的價格。你能在 Med 和 ex-Med 之間分解一下嗎？然後再次回顧一下你對 EAA 品牌在加勒比地區的思考過程？

Yes. You talk about -- hang on one second. Let me get the details for the EAA brands.

是的。你說——等一下。讓我了解 EAA 品牌的詳細信息。

While he is looking, the overall position next year and the Med for the industry is going to be pretty good because basically there will be probably capacity production in the Med next year. Go ahead, David.

在他觀察的同時，明年的整體狀況和該行業的 Med 將會非常好，因為明年 Med 基本上可能會有產能生產。去吧，大衛。

Overall the comment if you break it down it is very similar for both markets as I mentioned for the year. Occupancy is well ahead and the prices are nicely higher for both the Med as well as northern Europe for the EAA brands.

總的來說，如果你把它分解的話，這兩個市場的評論都非常相似，正如我在今年提到的那樣。入住率遙遙領先，地中海和北歐 EAA 品牌的價格都高得多。

Okay, okay. And it sounded fairly similar to North --

好吧好吧。聽起來和北很相似——

The EAA in the Caribbean, I had indicated occupancy was lower than the prior year with prices that are in line.

加勒比地區的 EAA，我曾表示入住率低於上一年，價格符合預期。

Okay. And it sounded similar also a similar breakdown color for the North American brands both Med and outside of the Med?

好的。對於 Med 和 Med 之外的北美品牌來說，這聽起來也是類似的分類顏色？

At this point in time for the North American brands, the Med -- with the reduced occupancy in the Med, the pricing in the Med seems to be doing much better than in northern Europe in terms of being up more than northern Europe.

目前，對於北美品牌 Med 而言，隨著 Med 的入住率下降，Med 的定價似乎比北歐要好得多，因為它的價格高於北歐。

Okay, okay. And then, gentlemen, just given your overall commentary about the higher booked occupancy and pricing. Should we anticipate, we'll grant that wave is important but should we anticipate that you obviously won't need as much bookings during wave on a year-over-year basis all else equal in the same trajectory at this point?

好吧好吧。然後，先生們，就更高的預訂入住率和價格給出了您的總體評論。我們是否應該預料到，我們會承認這一波很重要，但我們是否應該預料到，在這一點上，在同一軌跡上，您顯然不需要在波次期間每年需要那麼多預訂？

Well, we have less to sell, as Arnold indicated, than we did at this time last year despite the capacity increase. So clearly it is a zero-sum game and we can only book so much, we only have so much capacity. So we do need less during wave and the remainder of the year for 2017 and we will be looking to push pricing up and try to continue to do better than our guidance.

好吧，正如阿諾德所說，儘管產能增加了，但我們要賣的東西比去年這個時候要少。很明顯，這是一場零和遊戲，我們只能預訂這麼多，我們只有這麼多容量。因此，在 2017 年浪潮和今年剩餘時間裡，我們確實需要更少的東西，我們將尋求推高定價，並努力繼續做得比我們的指導更好。

Okay. And then lastly I know it is less than 24 hours, but it has been kind of quite thankfully on the terrorist incidents front. But the incident yesterday in Germany less than 24 hours, just any very early feedback indications from that? I know it kind of absent flows for a week after an event but any thoughts there?

好的。最後，我知道它還不到 24 小時，但在恐怖事件方面，這有點謝天謝地。但是昨天在德國發生的事件還不到24小時，剛剛有什麼很早的反饋跡象嗎？我知道在事件發生後一周內沒有流動，但有什麼想法嗎？

Just general comments. We had a couple of incidents, I guess, the German situation and the situation in Turkey. But the reality is that we had weathered those storms for the past several years. And as long as the world continues in the general state it is, people have chosen to continue to travel.

只是一般評論。我猜我們發生了幾起事件，德國局勢和土耳其局勢。但現實情況是，過去幾年我們已經經受住了這些風暴。只要世界繼續保持一般狀態，人們就會選擇繼續旅行。

As long as people travel, we are going to be in good shape. If things were ever to obviously get exacerbated and people are afraid to travel, then we will have a challenge. But that has not happened in recent times with all of the various incidents that have occurred and so we have no reason at this point in time to have a higher level of concern than normal.

只要人們旅行，我們就會保持良好狀態。如果事情明顯惡化並且人們害怕旅行，那麼我們將面臨挑戰。但是，最近發生的所有各種事件都沒有發生這種情況，因此我們目前沒有理由比正常情況更加關注。

Thank you all. Happy holidays and congratulations again on a great 2016.

謝謝你們。節日快樂，再次祝賀 2016 年的美好。

Thank you. Happy holidays to you too.

謝謝你。也祝你節日快樂。

Harry Curtis, Nomura Instinet.

哈里·柯蒂斯，野村 Instinet。

I wanted to focus on next year's free cash flow. The first question is is there any repurchase of shares baked into your 2017 earnings guidance? And is there any or to what degree have you built in any uplift from your new revenue management system into the 2017 guidance?

我想專注於明年的自由現金流。第一個問題是您的 2017 年收益指引中是否包含任何股票回購？從新的收入管理系統到 2017 年指南，您是否或在何種程度上建立了任何提升？

Okay, concerning stock repurchase, right now we have about $400 million remaining on the current amount designated for that. We will continue to buy back on an opportunistic basis and we will see if we get through that amount over the next period of time.

好的，關於股票回購，現在我們在指定的當前金額上剩餘大約 4 億美元。我們將繼續在機會主義的基礎上回購，我們將看看我們是否能在接下來的一段時間內完成這筆交易。

The Board will revisit to see what would be the next step because it is clearly a Board decision. So that is the basic story on that. We do it opportunistically so we don't have a plan per se in terms of factoring into that. What was the second part of your question?

董事會將重新審視下一步，因為這顯然是董事會的決定。這就是基本的故事。我們投機取巧，因此我們本身沒有考慮到這一點的計劃。你問題的第二部分是什麼？

Well I wanted to see if the new revenue management system was also baked into your yield guidance for next year.

好吧，我想看看新的收入管理系統是否也納入了明年的收益指導。

It is. We only have about 30% of the inventory for the six brands that have been new tools, currently being managed because obviously we are way ahead on booking so it is can only impact so much of 2017. But by 2018 we will have the full impact for the inventory in those six brands.

這是。我們只有大約 30% 的 6 個品牌的庫存是新工具，目前正在管理，因為顯然我們在預訂方面遙遙領先，所以它只能影響 2017 年的大部分時間。但到 2018 年，我們將產生全面影響對於這六個品牌的庫存。

But we already benefited somewhat from the sharing of best practices across the brands and the development of the two and the sharing of what they do. So the answer is, yes, it is factored in as one of many factors that contribute to yield.

但我們已經從品牌之間分享最佳實踐以及兩者的發展以及他們所做的分享中受益匪淺。所以答案是，是的，它是影響產量的眾多因素之一。

And, Harry, you had asked (multiple speakers). Go ahead.

而且，哈利，你問過（多位發言者）。前進。

Yes, go ahead. Sorry, David.

好，去吧。對不起，大衛。

You asked about cash flow for 2017. At the midpoint of our guidance, the cash flow from operations should be close to the $5 billion mark. We do have about $3 billion in CapEx for 2017 and so we do have roughly $2 billion of free cash flow.

您詢問了 2017 年的現金流量。在我們指導的中點，來自運營的現金流量應該接近 50 億美元大關。我們在 2017 年確實有大約 30 億美元的資本支出，因此我們確實有大約 20 億美元的自由現金流。

Our existing dividend is close to $1 billion, so we do have some extra money over and above the dividend to return to shareholders as well as we have some room in our credit metrics to continue to potentially increase debt and return free cash flow and more to shareholders.

我們現有的股息接近 10 億美元，因此除了股息之外，我們確實有一些額外的資金可以返還給股東，而且我們的信用指標還有一些空間可以繼續潛在地增加債務並返還自由現金流等等股東。

You know, the revenue management (multiple speakers). Go ahead, Harry.

你知道，收益管理（多位發言人）。去吧，哈利。

Just where I was going with this is I am just trying to get a sense of if your share repurchase appetite in 2017 could be as strong as it was in 2016.

正是我要這樣做的地方是，我只是想了解您在 2017 年的股票回購意願是否會像 2016 年一樣強勁。

That is going to be a Board decision, as I mentioned. We have about $400 million left and we will continue to buy as we have in the past.

正如我所提到的，這將是董事會的決定。我們還剩下大約 4 億美元，我們將像過去一樣繼續購買。

We did repurchase (multiple speakers).

我們確實回購了（多位發言者）。

Okay, well I will keep trying. (laughter)

好的，我會繼續努力的。 （笑聲）

What I can tell you, Harry, is a little color on your other question on the revenue management system is obviously we just the two -- we just put it in place and there will be continuous learnings. So we think over time there is real upside contribution from that and I know the teams absolutely love working with the two.

哈利，我可以告訴你的是你關於收入管理系統的另一個問題的一點色彩，顯然我們只是兩個 - 我們只是把它放在適當的位置，並且會有持續的學習。所以我們認為隨著時間的推移會有真正的上行貢獻，我知道團隊絕對喜歡與兩者合作。

Very good, thanks.

非常好謝謝。

James Hardiman, Wedbush Securities.

韋德布什證券公司的詹姆斯·哈迪曼。

I was hoping you could give us a little bit more color on Cuba? You had made the announcement that Fathom is transitioning back to P&O. I guess what does that mean for the impact travel experiment? Then I guess what happens next? I don't think we have gotten an official announcement in terms of the other brands and when and how many are going to be going to Cuba but was hoping we could get an update there.

我希望你能給我們更多關於古巴的色彩？您已經宣布 Fathom 將轉回 P&O。我猜這對沖擊旅行實驗意味著什麼？那我猜接下來會發生什麼？我認為我們還沒有得到關於其他品牌的官方公告，以及何時以及有多少人將去古巴，但希望我們能在那裡得到更新。

Yes, good morning, James, happy holidays to you. So first of all regarding Cuba, again we are really privileged that we were the first and in doing so have paved the way for the rest of the industry. We still, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, will have more calls to Cuba than any other major US cruise company.

是的，早上好，詹姆斯，祝你節日快樂。因此，首先關於古巴，我們真的很榮幸我們是第一個，這樣做為該行業的其他部分鋪平了道路。正如我在開場白中提到的那樣，我們仍然會比任何其他美國主要郵輪公司更多地致電古巴。

So we feel very good about our position in Cuba. Along with everyone else, we submitted our request for additional sailings through the beginning of the June period and thereafter is just the planning cycle in Cuba. And we are in a process of receiving the authorizations from Cuba as we speak here now about that.

所以我們對我們在古巴的地位感覺很好。與其他所有人一起，我們在 6 月初提交了增加航行的請求，此後只是古巴的計劃週期。我們正在接受古巴的授權，因為我們現在在這裡談到這一點。

But we have every intention of cruising to Cuba. We have every expectation one or more of our brands will be approved from the June time period on. And through May as I mentioned we have more sailings than anyone else. In terms of the Fathom, Adonia was basically a sort of an internal charter, the brand chartered it to establish the concept and also obviously to position us to introduce into Cuba. We are going to probably -- not probably, we are going to go with larger ships and multiple brands to Cuba.

但我們完全有計劃前往古巴。我們完全期望我們的一個或多個品牌將從 6 月份開始獲得批准。正如我所提到的，到五月，我們的航行次數比其他任何人都多。就 Fathom 而言，Adonia 基本上是一種內部章程，該品牌授予它是為了確立概念，也顯然是為了將我們引入古巴。我們可能會 - 不太可能，我們將乘坐更大的船隻和多個品牌前往古巴。

With regard to the DR, we are also going with multiple brands for Fathom. So Fathom is being expanded across a number of brands in the DR. The on-the-ground experiences have resonated greatly with the guests. We both take some of the onboard stuff from Adonia and Fathom to the other brands, but the emphasis of course is the on-ground experiences in DR and then continue to have the opportunity for travelers to have that deep travel experience and for the DR to reap the benefits of the impact of having those travelers work alongside. Impact clear is already in the DR they are doing great work.

關於 DR，我們還將為 Fathom 選擇多個品牌。因此，Fathom 正在DR 的多個品牌中進行擴展。現場體驗引起了來賓們的極大共鳴。我們都將一些從 Adonia 和 Fathom 帶到其他品牌的機上產品，但重點當然是 DR 的實地體驗，然後繼續有機會讓旅行者有深入的旅行體驗，讓 DR 能夠從讓這些旅行者一起工作的影響中獲益。 Impact clear 已經在 DR 中，他們做得很好。

Great. And then along those same lines, remind us why the first-quarter trend looks to be short of the fiscal full-year trend, fiscal 2017 trend, I think it is 1.5% to 2.5% for the first quarter versus 2.5% for the year. I don't know if that has anything to do with Cuba or even if Cuba is factored into your yield guidance in any way.

偉大的。然後沿著同樣的思路，提醒我們為什麼第一季度的趨勢看起來低於全年的趨勢，2017 財年的趨勢，我認為第一季度是 1.5% 到 2.5%，而今年是 2.5% .我不知道這是否與古巴有關，或者即使古巴以任何方式被納入您的產量指導。

It has nothing to do with Cuba. But go ahead, David.

這與古巴無關。但請繼續，大衛。

Yes. It is just the midpoint of the first quarter is 2% versus the 2.5% approximately for the year. And the first quarter had tougher comparisons in the prior year. But keep in mind we are only talking about a half a point here. And so we could view our best guess for each and every number.

是的。這只是第一季度的中點，為 2%，而全年約為 2.5%。與上一年相比，第一季度的情況更為嚴峻。但請記住，我們在這裡只談論半點。因此，我們可以查看每個數字的最佳猜測。

Great. And then I guess just lastly. I just wanted to circle back to China. Obviously you have made it pretty clear that China is more about generating positive returns than yields, but I know it is early but maybe just directionally do you think yields are going to be down again for 2017? Is there even the chance that they could grow?

偉大的。然後我猜最後。我只是想繞回中國。顯然，您已經非常清楚地表明，中國更多的是產生正回報而不是收益率，但我知道現在還為時過早，但也許只是方向性的，您認為 2017 年收益率會再次下降嗎？他們甚至有成長的機會嗎？

I guess what are the contributing factors there? Obviously capacity in China is going to be much more manageable in 2017 versus 2016. It seems like you guys are pretty bullish about the improvement in your distribution, but how should I think about that?

我想那裡的促成因素是什麼？顯然，與 2016 年相比，2017 年中國的產能將更易於管理。看來你們對分銷的改善相當看好，但我應該怎麼想呢？

Yes, well first of all you touched on a couple of good points there. We have expanded distribution, that improves the B2B aspect of what we are doing there. But we are going to have tougher comparisons in the first half of the year in China with yields. So based on what happened in the last half of the year, where you might expect yields to be down in the first half of the year on a comparison basis. But then expectations are that it will be up in the second half of the year.

是的，首先你談到了那裡的幾個優點。我們擴大了分銷，改善了我們在那裡所做的 B2B 方面。但我們將在今年上半年對中國的收益率進行更嚴格的比較。因此，根據今年下半年發生的情況，您可能預計上半年收益率會下降。但隨後的預期是，它將在今年下半年上漲。

So on balance we will see where it lands. But China for us is a volume growth story. It is a return story. The yields that we have experienced this past year are certainly still generating good returns. We see possibility for increasing yields but our focus again is on continuing the high level of occupancy that we have, continuing delivering great experience to Chinese guests, and being positioned to expand the market.

所以總的來說，我們會看到它落在哪裡。但對我們來說，中國是一個銷量增長的故事。這是一個回歸的故事。我們在過去一年中所經歷的收益率當然仍在產生良好的回報。我們看到了增加收益的可能性，但我們的重點再次是保持我們擁有的高入住率，繼續為中國客人提供出色的體驗，並為擴大市場做好準備。

Great, thanks, guys, and happy holidays.

太好了，謝謝，伙計們，節日快樂。

Jaime Katz, Morningstar.

傑米·卡茨，晨星。

So it seems like you guys are about to want some sort of new technology initiatives at CES. I am curious given that CapEx is a little bit higher than we are richly anticipated next year, is there any sort of level of CapEx associated with whatever new initiatives you guys are going to launch and is there any sort of multi-year cost that we should be thinking about going forward?

因此，你們似乎想要在 CES 上推出某種新技術計劃。我很好奇，因為資本支出比我們明年的預期要高一點，你們將要推出的任何新舉措是否有任何形式的資本支出，我們是否有任何類型的多年成本應該考慮前進嗎？

Yes, thanks, Jaime, for the question. First of all, the capital that is being employed in that initiative is kind of part of a low-level 3% to 5% of our total capital spend annually that we look at for basically research and development and innovation. So we had invested along the way all of this time we delivered the earnings we have delivered in that manner to position us to have the opportunity to introduce this particular -- truly it is a guest experience.

是的，謝謝 Jaime 的提問。首先，在該計劃中使用的資本是我們每年總資本支出的 3% 到 5% 的一部分，我們主要考慮用於研發和創新。因此，我們一直在投資，我們以這種方式交付了我們所交付的收益，使我們有機會介紹這個特別的東西——這確實是一種客戶體驗。

It is driven by technology, but the technology obviously to the guest will be invisible. And we are excited about the potential. The guest ultimately will decide and we are prepared. But fundamentally for your planning purposes we look at a 3% to 5% level of innovation in research and development kind of investment in capital. And we feel that it is appropriate for a copy of our scale and it gives us plenty of dollars to try to create breakthroughs, which we think obviously this current introduction that will be revealed on January 5 has potential to be.

它是由技術驅動的，但對客人來說明顯的技術將是無形的。我們對這種潛力感到興奮。客人最終將做出決定，我們已做好準備。但從根本上來說，出於您的規劃目的，我們會考慮 3% 到 5% 的研發創新水平的資本投資。而且我們認為它適合我們規模的副本，它為我們提供了足夠的資金來嘗試創造突破，我們認為很明顯，將於 1 月 5 日公佈的當前介紹具有潛力。

Okay. And then I think yesterday you guys put out a press release saying that new ship in 2019 would be going to Carnival, it was originally planned to go to maybe P&O Cruises Australia if I am recalling correctly. So I am curious if there are any new conclusions surrounding the Australian market given that you are moving the new hardware back to the Caribbean, which has clearly been performing very well.

好的。然後我想昨天你們發布了一個新聞稿，說 2019 年的新船將去嘉年華，如果我沒記錯的話，最初計劃去可能是 P&O Cruises Australia。所以我很好奇是否有任何關於澳大利亞市場的新結論，因為你正在將新硬件移回加勒比海，這顯然表現得非常好。

No, Australia has remained a big growth market for our cruises and growing 20% for I don't know how many years now, 10 years plus. So it is a very strong cruise market. When we make decisions like that, you just have to keep in mind it is very holistic. There are a gazillion variables that go into play.

不，澳大利亞一直是我們遊輪的巨大增長市場，並且增長了 20%，我不知道現在有多少年了，10 年多。所以這是一個非常強大的郵輪市場。當我們做出這樣的決定時，您只需要記住它是非常全面的。有無數的變量在起作用。

One obviously, the Carnival brand is doing very, very, very well here in the states. But also we have multiple home ports in the US. We distribute the fleet around the US for Carnival and certain places can take certain ships, certain places can only take certain size ships and so on. Balancing all of that out makes a difference.

很明顯，嘉年華品牌在美國的表現非常、非常、非常好。但我們在美國也有多個母港。我們在美國各地為狂歡節分配船隊，某些地方可以乘坐某些船隻，某些地方只能乘坐某些大小的船隻等等。平衡所有這些會有所作為。

Similarly to -- in Australia, certain size ships can fit when you look at the destinations. But we have had so much success with Vista, Carnival Vista, we are looking at expanding the opportunity for Carnival brand while at the same time still giving really guest-ready and guest-preferred Hartwell and Australia market.

與 - 在澳大利亞類似，當您查看目的地時，某些尺寸的船隻可以容納。但是我們在 Vista、Carnival Vista 方面取得瞭如此大的成功，我們正在尋找擴大 Carnival 品牌的機會，同時仍然提供真正的客人準備和客人喜歡的 Hartwell 和澳大利亞市場。

So there's only so many shipyards. We can only build so many ships a year and we have to allocate things and we are always trying to optimize. But it is holistic decision involving a lot of variables, deployment, itinerary, relative yield contribution, a number of things.

所以只有這麼多的造船廠。我們一年只能建造這麼多船，我們必須分配東西，我們一直在努力優化。但這是一個整體決策，涉及很多變量、部署、行程、相對收益貢獻等等。

The second part of the announcement was the Carnival Splendor moving to P&O Australia. So we are continuing to grow that brand within Australia.

公告的第二部分是嘉年華輝煌搬到了 P&O 澳大利亞。因此，我們將繼續在澳大利亞發展該品牌。

Thank you, guys. Happy holidays.

感謝你們。節日快樂。

Greg Badishkanian, Citigroup.

花旗集團的格雷格·巴迪什卡尼安。

Just to follow on to James's question on China. It kind of sounded like net yields for full-year 2017 would maybe be around flattish year over year at least not too far off from flat year-over-year either way. Is that correct? And then also how much of the China business is locked in at this point for 2017?

只是為了繼續詹姆斯關於中國的問題。聽起來 2017 年全年的淨收益率可能會與去年同期持平，至少與去年同期持平不會相差太遠。那是對的嗎？那麼，2017 年目前有多少中國業務被鎖定？

So just remember that China represents even with the increase next year and introduction of the Majestic Princess, the first purpose-built ship for China in our Princess line we will introduce will represent less than 6% of our capacity. So just keep that in mind.

所以請記住，即使在明年增加和引入 Majestic Princess 時，中國仍占我們公主系列中第一艘專門為中國建造的船舶，但僅占我們運力的不到 6%。所以請記住這一點。

We will see where yields end up. Again, it is a B2B business. In terms of guidance, of course we put it in. We don't give brand-by-brand and total geography-by-geography yields, so I won't do it for China either. But we have given you a good description I think of what you can expect.

我們將看到收益率最終在哪裡。同樣，這是一項 B2B 業務。在指導方面，我們當然放了。我們不給出逐個品牌和逐個地域的總產量，所以我也不會為中國做。但是我們已經給了你一個很好的描述，我認為你可以期待什麼。

The message we like you guys to hear clearly is that it is a return-driven business. With all of the concerns people have expressed this year on China as well as concerns expressed in lots of other areas and whatnot, you can see what we are able to deliver and ultimate results. We are very, very bullish on China long-term.

我們希望你們清楚地聽到的信息是，這是一項以回報為導向的業務。鑑於人們今年對中國表達的所有擔憂，以及在許多其他領域表達的擔憂等等，你可以看到我們能夠提供什麼以及最終結果。從長遠來看，我們非常非常看好中國。

We have great partners in CSSC. Our relationship there is growing stronger and stronger. We are moving forward together to help build a long-standing, sustainable cruise industry in China, which has been declared the five-year plan by the Chinese government. So we are bullish but it is a slow walk. We can only send so many ships and so on so we feel really confident overall.

我們在 CSSC 有很好的合作夥伴。我們在那裡的關係越來越牢固。我們正在共同前進，以幫助在中國建立一個長期的、可持續的郵輪產業，這已被中國政府宣佈為五年計劃。所以我們看漲，但這是一個緩慢的步伐。我們只能派出這麼多船等等，所以我們總體上感到非常自信。

The second part of the question, you had asked about where we stand in China. Given the historical averages of where we are booked and give or take generally speaking we start the year roughly about half booked but I did indicate before that China is a much later booking market. Every country is different. So they are a closer-in booking market and less than that overall.

問題的第二部分，你問了我們在中國的立場。鑑於我們預訂和給予或接受的歷史平均水平，一般來說，我們年初大約有一半預訂，但我之前確實指出中國是一個晚得多的預訂市場。每個國家都是不同的。因此，它們是一個更接近預訂市場的市場，而且總體上比這個市場要少。

Right, right. That all makes sense, thank you. And then the North American passengers going to Europe, I know that is still a small part of your overall mix in Europe. For itineraries in Europe it is only about 10% that you source from North America. But with the broad strength that we have seen, could that have a significant impact and benefit for you if that continues? I understand the attack in Germany may have a negative impact, but it does seem like that -- the trend has been pretty strong recently.

是的是的。這一切都有道理，謝謝。然後是前往歐洲的北美乘客，我知道這仍然是您在歐洲的整體組合的一小部分。對於歐洲的行程，您從北美採購的只有大約 10%。但是，憑藉我們所看到的廣泛優勢，如果這種情況繼續下去，是否會對您產生重大影響和益處？我知道德國的襲擊可能會產生負面影響，但看起來確實如此——最近這種趨勢非常強勁。

Yes, the trends have been, have been positive overall. But we have had to redo a number of our itineraries along the way that have cost us in terms of opportunity in 2016. But that is all part of our business.

是的，總體而言，趨勢一直是積極的。但我們不得不重做一些行程，這讓我們在 2016 年失去了機會。但這都是我們業務的一部分。

So again on balance, we give guidance, the numbers we feel are reasonable. We know the world is a volatile place and so we factor that into everything we do. But, sure, anything that is positive in the end obviously helps us. The North American brands have a number of itineraries planned in Europe and our guests are looking forward to them and we are looking forward capturing the value for them.

所以再次平衡，我們提供指導，我們認為數字是合理的。我們知道世界是一個動蕩的地方，因此我們將其納入我們所做的一切。但是，可以肯定的是，最終任何積極的事情顯然都會對我們有所幫助。北美品牌在歐洲計劃了許多行程，我們的客人期待著他們，我們期待著為他們創造價值。

Yes, great. Thank you.

對，很好。謝謝你。

Robin Farley, UBS.

瑞銀的羅賓·法利。

Most of my questions have been asked, just kind of one or two follow-ups. I just wanted to clarify on Cuba, what is in your yield guidance, your EPS guidance for the year in terms of the Cuba? Is it just an expectation that one ship not yet specified will continue to operate there from May until the end of the year or does that include perhaps more than that?

我的大部分問題都被問到了，只是一兩個後續問題。我只是想澄清一下古巴，你的收益指導是什麼，你對古巴的年度每股收益指導是什麼？是否只是期望一艘尚未指定的船舶將從 5 月到今年年底繼續在那裡運營，或者這可能包括更多？

Yes. So, Robin, first of all good morning to you. I am a little surprised. You are usually much earlier on the calls on your questions.

是的。所以，羅賓，首先對你說早安。我有點驚訝。您通常會更早地接到您的問題電話。

I don't know what happened. Yes (multiple speakers)(laughter).

我不知道發生了什麼。是的（多位發言者）（笑聲）。

But concerning Cuba, look, today we have Adonia. It is a 700-passenger ship. So the reality is you can barely find the numbers, even though the ship is getting a premium price and is selling out and so on. So as we look at it again, Cuba will be a slow expansion. So we will have additional itineraries going there. Hopefully we will have more than one brand once we get the final approvals from the Cuban authorities. But they have constraints in the number of berths and the size of the berths and what size ships you can get in and so on.

但是關於古巴，看，今天我們有阿多尼亞。這是一艘700人的船。所以現實是你幾乎找不到數字，即使這艘船正在獲得溢價並且正在售罄等等。因此，當我們再看一遍時，古巴將是一個緩慢的擴張。所以我們會有額外的行程去那裡。希望一旦獲得古巴當局的最終批准，我們將擁有多個品牌。但是他們對泊位的數量和泊位的大小以及您可以乘坐什麼大小的船等等都有限制。

So financially to be candid with you, it is important and the margin is certainly important to the brands. But the most important thing is positioning for the longer haul and positioning to lift overall demand and interest in the Caribbean and ultimately because of that create additional opportunity for capturing more of the value through increased yields. So Cuba is a longer-term play but you have to build it today and that is what we are doing. But in terms of the financial impact on the corporation, you couldn't find it probably.

因此，在財務上與您坦誠相待，這很重要，而利潤對品牌來說當然也很重要。但最重要的是長期定位和定位，以提升加勒比地區的整體需求和興趣，並最終因此創造額外的機會，通過增加產量來獲取更多價值。所以古巴是一個長期的遊戲，但你必須在今天建立它，這就是我們正在做的事情。但就對公司的財務影響而言，您可能找不到。

Okay. No, great, that is helpful. Then on China and I know that obviously it is early and you don't want to give specific yield guidance for the market, but just on your comment that returns will continue to be positive or I don't know whether you indicated whether returns would grow or just that they would be positive or more relative to other brands.

好的。不，太好了，這很有幫助。然後關於中國，我知道顯然現在還為時過早，您不想為市場提供具體的收益率指導，但只是根據您的評論，回報將繼續為正，或者我不知道您是否表示回報是否會增長或只是相對於其他品牌他們會是積極的或更多。

Well, because my question is with the Majestic going there, I think that is your first newbuild for that market and so it would be a higher investment per berth than the other tonnage that you have there. So it's fair to assume, right, that that ship is getting price premium to your other capacity in China? So I guess that is why I am surprised that you wouldn't feel comfortable saying positive yields for the year just given that if returns would continue to be what they are given that newer ship.

好吧，因為我的問題是 Majestic 去那裡，我認為這是您為該市場建造的第一艘新船，因此與您在那裡擁有的其他噸位相比，每個泊位的投資將更高。所以可以公平地假設，對，那艘船的價格比你在中國的其他能力要高嗎？所以我想這就是為什麼我感到驚訝的是，如果考慮到如果回報將繼續是他們所獲得的新船，那麼你會不願意說今年的正收益率。

Well, again you have got to look at the holistic. There's a lot going on there. You have got first of all different ports in different seasons. We are one of the few companies that committed year-round. So the Tianjin market is different than the Shanghai market, so on and so forth. So there's lots of things that move in that.

好吧，你必須再次審視整體。那裡發生了很多事情。您首先擁有不同季節的不同港口。我們是為數不多的全年承諾的公司之一。所以天津市場不同於上海市場等等。所以有很多東西在其中移動。

But here is the real answer, fundamentally I know how to answer your question is, yes, we expect returns overall to be better in 2017 than they were in 2016. Returns have grown reasonably consistently in China. The most important thing for us is the way we do deployment, we know that the returns are better than what the alternative deployments would have generated for us. That is the key for us in operating.

但這是真正的答案，基本上我知道如何回答你的問題，是的，我們預計 2017 年的總體回報率會比 2016 年更好。中國的回報率一直在合理地持續增長。對我們來說最重要的是我們進行部署的方式，我們知道回報比替代部署為我們產生的回報要好。這是我們經營的關鍵。

So overall we are lifting our overall performance. But it does represent 5% of our capacity. So it did in 2016 and a little bit less than 6% in 2017. So as we move forward, we are looking at building that market but we are doing it in a way where as we grow it we are seeing higher returns than we would have seen otherwise.

所以總的來說，我們正在提升我們的整體表現。但它確實代表了我們產能的 5%。 2016 年也是如此，2017 年略低於 6%。因此，隨著我們向前發展，我們正在考慮建立這個市場，但我們這樣做的方式是，隨著我們的發展，我們看到的回報比我們想像的要高另有所見。

There is a natural constraint on the pace of growth because we have large addressable markets everywhere in the world that are underpenetrated everywhere in the world, including in North America. So we can't send all of the ships to China. And we need new additional capacity in the other places in the world to optimize the ultimate yield and bottom-line return.

增長速度自然受到限制，因為我們在世界各地都有巨大的潛在市場，但在世界各地，包括北美，這些市場都滲透不足。所以我們不能把所有的船都送到中國。我們需要在世界其他地方增加新的產能，以優化最終產量和底線回報。

And remember, Robin, Majestic gets to China in July. So that is consistent with the comments made -- Arnold made about the first half versus the second half.

請記住，Robin，Majestic 將於 7 月抵達中國。所以這與所發表的評論一致——阿諾德關於上半場和下半場的評論。

Okay, great. No, that is helpful. Thanks. Our channel checks show a really nice strong premium for Majestic, so I understand that you don't want to commit to anything but thank you.

好，太棒了。不，這很有幫助。謝謝。我們的頻道檢查顯示 Majestic 的溢價非常高，所以我知道您不想承諾任何事情，但謝謝。

Jared Shojaian, Wolfe Research.

Jared Shojaian，沃爾夫研究中心。

David, you indicated that about half of your 2017 capacity is booked at this point. So my question is what kind of pricing do you need to see on the other half that is not yet booked in order to hit your 2.5% yield guidance? Is it possible that pricing could be down to get to 2.5%? Is that your expectation?

大衛，您表示此時您的 2017 年容量大約有一半已被預訂。所以我的問題是，為了達到 2.5% 的收益率指導，您需要在尚未預訂的另一半看到什麼樣的定價？定價是否有可能降至 2.5%？這是你的期望嗎？

First of all I didn't say that exactly half was booked. I said generally speaking that the historical average give or take we enter the year approximately half booked. I wasn't trying to give you an exact number. I was just trying to do that relative to China being less than that. That's all. So our pricing is up at this point and we do continue to expect to see pricing continue to be up in the rest of the year and finish the year on an overall basis as we say approximately 2.5%.

首先，我沒有說正好有一半被預訂了。我說一般來說，我們進入一年的歷史平均水平大約是預定的一半。我不是想給你一個確切的數字。相對於中國的情況，我只是想做到這一點。就這樣。所以我們的定價在這一點上是上漲的，我們確實預計今年剩餘時間價格會繼續上漲，並在整體基礎上完成今年，我們說大約 2.5%。

Okay. And then I guess just to ask that a little bit differently, you have indicated that you are in a better book position today than you were at this time last year. Then you also get the mix benefit on yield from Seabourn Encore and maybe even get some benefit on from the yield management system.

好的。然後我想問的有點不同，你已經表明你今天的書本地位比去年這個時候要好。然後，您還可以從 Seabourn Encore 獲得混合收益，甚至可能從收益管理系統中獲得一些收益。

So I guess why is your yield guidance 2.5% when you did 3% this year if you take out the accounting re-class? Are there any headwinds that maybe I am not appreciating or are you just looking at this from more of a conservative approach given some of the issues that we felt throughout 2016 for the industry?

所以我猜如果你拿出會計重課，為什麼你的收益率指導是 2.5%，而你今年做了 3%？考慮到我們在 2016 年整個行業感受到的一些問題，是否有任何可能我沒有意識到的不利因素，或者您是否只是從更保守的角度看待這個問題？

You know, if you were to take the accounting re-class out, as you referenced, and looked at the guidance we gave this time last year, you will see our guidance is actually stronger this year at this time than it was last year. Keep in mind we haven't gotten to wave season yet.

你知道，如果你把會計重新分類，就像你提到的那樣，看看我們去年這個時候給出的指導，你會發現今年這個時候我們的指導實際上比去年更強。請記住，我們還沒有進入揮手季節。

We know the world is a volatile place. We just talked about a number of things that have happened, even things that happened yesterday. So we give you over best guidance, realizing that the world is full of things. It is full of typhoons and cyclones and hurricanes and it is filled with unexpected things like a Brexit or a Zika or whatever.

我們知道世界是一個動蕩的地方。我們剛剛談到了一些已經發生的事情，甚至是昨天發生的事情。所以我們給你最好的指導，意識到世界充滿了事物。它充滿了颱風、旋風和颶風，充滿了意想不到的事情，比如英國退歐或寨卡病毒或其他什麼。

So we give you the guidance as we did last year with that. If you look at it, you would say, okay, they are giving stronger guidance this year at this point in time than they did last year, which reflects the difference. The difference is last year we were ahead on booking at slightly lower prices at this point in time. Now we are ahead of bookings with higher prices at this time.

因此，我們像去年一樣為您提供指導。如果你看一下，你會說，好吧，他們今年這個時間點比去年給出了更強的指導，這反映了差異。不同的是去年我們在這個時間點以略低的價格預訂。現在我們在這個時候以更高的價格提前預訂。

So you will see us give a little strong yield guidance. Now, keep in mind also you are coming off a higher base. The comparisons are getting tougher and tougher as we grow yields. In the end, people take money to the bank, not percentages, right? So the absolute dollar increase to the guest, if so you have to look at all of that too.

所以你會看到我們給出了一些強有力的收益率指導。現在，請記住，您正在離開更高的基礎。隨著產量的增加，比較變得越來越強硬。最後，人們把錢存入銀行，而不是百分比，對吧？所以客人的絕對美元增加，如果是這樣，你也必須看看所有這些。

But bottom line is we are confident at this point in time with the qualifiers that we haven't gotten to wave and the world is a strange and mysterious place and is volatile. But factoring that in -- and it has been volatile the last many years and we have been delivering -- and that is our intention for 2017 as well.

但底線是，我們現在對我們還沒有揮動的預選賽充滿信心，世界是一個奇怪而神秘的地方，而且是不穩定的。但考慮到這一點——過去很多年它一直不穩定，我們一直在交付——這也是我們 2017 年的意圖。

Great, thank you. If I could just squeeze one more quick one in, would you characterize the demand environment today as being better than what it was two, three months ago?

太好了謝謝。如果我能再快一點擠進去，你會認為今天的需求環境比兩三個月前更好嗎？

The demand environment? You mean from consumers in general or from potential guests? I would say that to three months ago, that is a good question. I would say this. Our brands continue to do an outstanding job of exceeding guest expectations when the guests are on board and they continue to an outstanding job of creating more demand for their particular targeted segments.

需求環境？您是指一般消費者還是潛在客人？我會說三個月前，這是一個很好的問題。我會這麼說。當客人登機時，我們的品牌繼續出色地超越客人的期望，並且他們繼續出色地為特定目標細分市場創造更多需求。

Our public relations more broadly has done a good job of providing an umbrella effect of getting people to increasingly consider cruise when they are thinking about vacation holidays. The last two to three months -- we are a global business. Every year there is a recession somewhere or this or that or whatever. If you are talking globally for our business, I could not say that the last two or three months I see a change in global consumer attitudes or anything like that consistently. What I can say is we definitely see strength and we have seen strength for a while and we are building on that and taking advantage of it.

我們的公共關係在更廣泛的意義上做得很好，它提供了一種保護傘效應，讓人們在考慮假期時越來越多地考慮遊輪。過去兩到三個月——我們是一家全球企業。每年都會在某個地方或這個或那個或其他地方出現衰退。如果您在全球範圍內談論我們的業務，我不能說過去兩三個月我看到了全球消費者態度的變化或類似的持續變化。我能說的是，我們肯定看到了力量，我們已經看到了一段時間的力量，我們正在以此為基礎並利用它。

Great, thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Operator, we have time for one more question.

接線員，我們有時間再問一個問題。

Assia Georgieva, Infiniti Research.

Assia Georgieva，英菲尼迪研究公司。

Congratulations on yet another great quarter. I have kind of lost track of all of the sequential beats quarter versus guidance. I had one quick question. Given that comparisons get a little bit tougher in Q2 of next year and now for Q4 2017 given the great result that you just reported, could you qualitatively discuss the cadence of yield that you expect?

祝賀又一個偉大的季度。我有點忘記了所有連續節拍季度與指導的對比。我有一個簡單的問題。鑑於明年第二季度和現在 2017 年第四季度的比較變得更加艱難，鑑於您剛剛報告的出色結果，您能否定性地討論您期望的收益率節奏？

You discussed China but again that is a small piece of the overall puzzle. So, Arnold or David, if you could just give us some sort of a direction as to the curve?

你討論了中國，但這只是整個難題的一小部分。那麼，阿諾德或大衛，你能否給我們一些關於曲線的方向？

I would say it is very hard. There are so many moving parts and so many moving pieces particularly when you get out to the fourth quarter, where we have a very small -- relatively a very small percentage booked. So we give you our best guess for the year. We give you our best guess for the next quarter.

我會說這很難。有很多活動部件和活動部件，特別是當你到第四季度時，我們的預訂量非常小 - 相對非常小的百分比。因此，我們為您提供今年的最佳猜測。我們為您提供下一季度的最佳猜測。

It is fair to say that given the two numbers the remaining three quarters of the year is about the 2.5% because we have 2% for the first quarter. And at this point in time that is about as much information as we can give.

可以公平地說，鑑於這兩個數字，今年剩餘的三個季度約為 2.5%，因為第一季度我們有 2%。在這個時間點上，我們可以提供盡可能多的信息。

Well, it is just difficult for the rest of us and we had even less information than you guys. So I was thinking that maybe it is a bell curve that is all I was hoping for. Arnold, since you are laughing, can you say yes?

好吧，這對我們其他人來說很難，而且我們的信息比你們還少。所以我在想，也許這就是我所希望的鐘形曲線。阿諾德，既然你在笑，你能說是嗎？

I can't say is to a bell curve. I wish things were that orderly, but they are not. But thank you for your question. (laughter)

我不能說是鍾形曲線。我希望事情有條不紊，但事實並非如此。但謝謝你的問題。 （笑聲）

Okay, I appreciate that. Thank you again for taking my call.

好的，我很感激。再次感謝您接聽我的電話。

Be safe. Thank you.

注意安全。謝謝你。

Hey, everyone, a sincere happy holidays, thanks for your continued interest. We will -- obviously as always our people will work very hard to exceed the expectations we put in place. We hope everyone has a safe and wonderful holiday. I hope some of you are taking a cruise.

大家好，真誠的節日快樂，感謝大家一直以來的關注。我們將——顯然，我們的員工將一如既往地努力工作，以超越我們所設定的期望。我們希望每個人都有一個安全而美好的假期。我希望你們中的一些人正在乘坐遊輪。

Happy holidays.

節日快樂。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day, everyone.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並要求您斷開線路。祝大家有個美好的一天。