嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(audio in progress) fourth-quarter 2015 earnings conference call.

（音頻進行中）2015 年第四季度財報電話會議。

This is Arnold Donald, President and CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc.

我是 Carnival Corporation & plc 總裁兼首席執行官 Arnold Donald。

Thank you all for joining us this morning.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

Today, I am joined by our Chairman, Micky Arison; David Bernstein, our Chief Financial Officer; and Beth Roberts, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

今天，我們的主席 Micky Arison 加入了我的行列；我們的首席財務官大衛伯恩斯坦；以及我們的投資者關係副總裁 Beth Roberts。

Now before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking.

現在在我開始之前，請注意，我們對這次電話會議的一些評論將是前瞻性的。

I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

我必須向您介紹今天新聞稿中的警示性聲明。

2015 was a great year for our Company.

2015 年對我們公司來說是豐收的一年。

In fact, one of our strongest ever, all thanks to the dedication and enthusiasm of our 120,000 team members who delivered nearly 11 million joyful vacation experiences.

事實上，這是我們有史以來最強大的一次，這一切都要歸功於我們 120,000 名團隊成員的奉獻精神和熱情，他們提供了近 1100 萬次愉快的假期體驗。

And due to the vital support from our tens of thousands of travel agent partners around the globe.

得益於我們全球數以萬計的旅行社合作夥伴的重要支持。

Despite a $0.10 drag from currency and fuel, despite macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, despite MERS and despite the usual weather and other one-off events, we were able to exceed the high end of our full-year guidance that we provided last December, delivering over 4% higher revenue yields, 40% growth in earnings and that's after a 25% earnings increase last year and well over $4 billion of cash from operations.

儘管貨幣和燃料拖累了 0.10 美元，儘管存在宏觀經濟和地緣政治挑戰，儘管存在 MERS 以及通常的天氣和其他一次性事件，但我們還是能夠超過去年 12 月提供的全年指導的高端，實現收入收益率提高了 4% 以上，收益增長了 40%，這是在去年收益增長 25% 以及超過 40 億美元的運營現金之後。

Our strong cash flow was more than enough to fund our capital commitments and return value to shareholders through our 20% increase in the dividend to over $900 million annually and the recent repurchase of more than $400 million of Carnival stock.

我們強勁的現金流足以為我們的資本承諾提供資金，並通過我們每年將股息增加 20% 至超過 9 億美元以及最近回購超過 4 億美元的嘉年華股票來為股東提供回報。

I am very proud of our team's many accomplishments this year, particularly the successful efforts to increase awareness and consideration for our great cruise vacations, including our multi-faceted campaigns, those around the Super Bowl, that generated over 10 billion positive media impressions during the height of wave season.

我為我們團隊今年取得的許多成就感到非常自豪，特別是成功地努力提高人們對我們偉大的郵輪假期的認識和考慮，包括我們的多方面活動，圍繞超級碗的活動，在波浪季節的高度。

P&O Cruises delivery of Britannia, the largest ship ever built specifically for British guests and named by her Majesty, Queen Elisabeth II, drawing a worldwide audience and a ringing endorsement of cruising.

P&O Cruises 交付了不列顛尼亞號，這是有史以來最大的專為英國客人建造的船，由伊麗莎白二世女王陛下命名，吸引了全球觀眾和對巡航的強烈認可。

Princess Cruises' 50th anniversary celebration, which reunited the original cast of the Love Boat TV series and included an award-winning float in the Rose Parade.

Princess Cruises 的 50 週年慶典，重聚了愛情船電視劇的原班人馬，並在玫瑰遊行中包括了一個屢獲殊榮的花車。

Cunard's 175th anniversary salute to Liverpool where the three Queens, Elizabeth, Victoria and Queen Mary II, captivated 1.3 million onlookers in what may have been the largest attendance at a single day maritime event in history.

Cunard 向利物浦致敬 175 週年，伊麗莎白、維多利亞和瑪麗二世三位女王在此致敬，吸引了 130 萬旁觀者，這可能是歷史上單日海事活動出席人數最多的一次。

And most recently, our five-ship event in Sydney Harbour, which garnered P&O Cruises Australia well over three hours of live coverage on Australia's Today Show.

最近，我們在悉尼港舉行的五艘船活動，在澳大利亞的今日秀中為 P&O Cruises Australia 贏得了三個多小時的現場報導。

Now these well-crafted opportunities showcase our brands, increase an awareness and consideration for our cruise vacations.

現在，這些精心設計的機會展示了我們的品牌，提高了我們對郵輪假期的認識和考慮。

In fact, our positive media impressions are up threefold in just two years.

事實上，我們的積極媒體印像在短短兩年內就增加了三倍。

This year, we made significant progress on multiple other efforts designed to further our journey toward consistent yield improvement by creating demand and excess of supply.

今年，我們在其他多項努力上取得了重大進展，這些努力旨在通過創造需求和供應過剩來進一步提高我們的產量。

Now we reinforced our leadership position in the burgeoning China cruise market with the successful introduction of our fourth ship in 2015.

現在，我們在 2015 年成功推出了第四艘郵輪，鞏固了我們在蓬勃發展的中國郵輪市場的領導地位。

And we are well-positioned in 2016 with two more year-round ships entering the market, one each for our Costa and Princess brands.

我們在 2016 年處於有利地位，又有兩艘全年開放的船舶進入市場，我們的 Costa 和 Princess 品牌各一艘。

In 2017, we will have both our Carnival Cruise Line and AIDA brand enter the market along with Princess Cruises' Majestic Princess, the first ship built specifically for Chinese guests and designed to maximize Chinese consumer demand.

2017年，嘉年華郵輪公司和愛達郵輪品牌將與公主郵輪旗下第一艘專為中國客人打造的、旨在最大限度滿足中國消費者需求的公主郵輪一起進入市場。

In addition, we recently signed a joint venture with CSSC and CIC to begin a new cruise brand in China.

此外，我們最近與中船集團和中投公司簽署了合資企業，在中國開始一個新的郵輪品牌。

Eventually, we expect to bolster our growth in China for many years to come.

最終，我們希望在未來的許多年裡促進我們在中國的增長。

Entering the market with multiple brands allows us to grow our presence faster and achieve deeper penetration by serving more of the differentiated market segments that exist there.

以多個品牌進入市場使我們能夠通過服務於那裡存在的更多差異化細分市場來更快地擴大我們的影響力並實現更深入的滲透。

We also launched our 10th brand in the Carnival Corporation family, Fathom, addressing a whole new travel category.

我們還推出了 Carnival Corporation 家族中的第 10 個品牌 Fathom，面向全新的旅遊類別。

We are excited about the prospects of doing good while offering meaningful experiences to travelers, initially to the Dominican Republic.

我們對做好事的前景感到興奮，同時為旅行者提供有意義的體驗，最初是多米尼加共和國。

We are also excited about our planned sailings to Cuba, made possible by Fathom.

我們也對 Fathom 計劃的前往古巴的航行感到興奮。

To date, Fathom has helped generate over 20 billion media impressions and counting.

迄今為止，Fathom 已幫助產生了超過 200 億次媒體印象和計數。

Now, of course, the best way to increase demand is to continue to exceed our guests' expectations.

現在，當然，增加需求的最佳方式是繼續超越客人的期望。

We continue to bring the best specialty restaurants and celebrity chef-designed menus to sea.

我們繼續將最好的特色餐廳和名廚設計的菜單帶到海上。

We have further elevated the guests' dining experiences through our growing list of celebrity chefs, which now include the renowned Thomas Keller, as well as Australian chef, Curtis Stone and chocolatier, Norman Love, joining Marco Pierre Weight, Guy Fieri and David Burke, amongst others.

我們通過不斷增加的名廚名單進一步提升了客人的用餐體驗，其中包括著名的 Thomas Keller，以及澳大利亞廚師 Curtis Stone 和巧克力製造商 Norman Love，以及 Marco Pierre Weight、Guy Fieri 和 David Burke，在其他人中。

Our entertainment offering continues to be further enhanced, including BB King's Blues Club, Lincoln Center Stage and composer, Stephen Schwartz of Wicked, along with a host of other innovations.

我們的娛樂產品繼續得到進一步增強，包括 BB King's Blues Club、林肯中心舞台和作曲家、Wicked 的 Stephen Schwartz，以及許多其他創新。

The diversity of great entertainers aboard our ships keeps getting better with headliners like folk legends Crosby, Stills & Nash; jazz star, Herbie Hancock; country singer, Trace Adkins; Diana Ross and even the Grinch through Carnival Cruise Lines Seuss at Sea program.

隨著民間傳奇人物克羅斯比、斯蒂爾斯和納什等頭條人物的出現，我們船上的優秀藝人的多樣性不斷提高；爵士明星赫比·漢考克；鄉村歌手 Trace Adkins；戴安娜羅斯甚至格林奇通過嘉年華遊輪海上蘇斯計劃。

And to give consumers yet another reason to take a cruise, we will even host our first fashion week at sea.

為了給消費者另一個乘坐郵輪的理由，我們甚至將在海上舉辦我們的第一個時裝週。

Now these, along with fresh retail and gaming options, including the launch of innovative new mobile gaming at sea, are all designed to offer guests even more of what they want and in turn drive higher onboard revenue.

現在，這些以及新的零售和遊戲選擇，包括在海上推出創新的新手機遊戲，都旨在為客人提供更多他們想要的東西，從而推動更高的船上收入。

We are realizing the benefits from improved coordination, which has already contributed to the (inaudible) improvements we've seen.

我們正在意識到改進協調所帶來的好處，這已經促成了我們所看到的（聽不清）改進。

We've now completed the design phase of a common revenue management system for six of our brands; the full impact of which we will begin to see in 2017.

我們現在已經完成了我們六個品牌的通用收入管理系統的設計階段；我們將在 2017 年開始看到其全面影響。

We continue to share learnings to improve onboard beverage revenues through bar-related experienced innovation, menu design and all-inclusive beverage offerings.

我們將繼續分享經驗，通過與酒吧相關的經驗豐富的創新、菜單設計和全包式飲料產品來提高機上飲料收入。

The behavior of communicating, collaborating and coordinating has already resulted in improved beverage revenue across the fleet; yet it is still in its early stages.

溝通、協作和協調的行為已經提高了整個車隊的飲料收入；但它仍處於早期階段。

Now we've also prioritized 2016 sourcing savings opportunities and have identified efforts to deliver another $75 million of cost savings, bringing the cumulative total since we began the conversation to $170 million to help offset inflation.

現在，我們還優先考慮了 2016 年的採購節約機會，並確定了另外 7500 萬美元成本節約的努力，使自我們開始對話以來的累計總額達到 1.7 億美元，以幫助抵消通貨膨脹。

Clearly, all these efforts and many others are simply building blocks.

顯然，所有這些努力和許多其他努力只是構建塊。

And it is very gratifying to see return on invested capital in the year at nearly 7.5%.

並且很欣慰地看到當年的投資資本回報率接近7.5%。

Now that's up from roughly 4.5% just two short years ago.

現在，這比兩年前的大約 4.5% 有所上升。

In fact, a number of our brands have reached the double-digit threshold already, including our flagship brand, Carnival Cruise Lines.

事實上，我們的多個品牌已經達到了兩位數的門檻，包括我們的旗艦品牌嘉年華郵輪。

We are very, very proud of the Carnival brand team who have worked so hard and so effectively to accelerate the brand's return to double-digit return on invested capital.

我們為嘉年華品牌團隊感到非常非常自豪，他們如此努力、如此有效地加速了品牌投資回報率達到兩位數。

So look, we have much more to do to keep the momentum going into 2016 and beyond.

所以看，我們還有很多事情要做，以保持 2016 年及以後的勢頭。

In 2016, we are especially excited about our new ship deliveries, AIDAprima, Carnival Vista, Holland America (inaudible) and Seabourn Encore, offering innovative features such as an outdoor ice rink, a lazy river ride, an open air sky ride, the first IMAX theater at sea and BLEND, the first purpose-built personalized wine-blending venue at sea and many, many others, all engineered to help exceed guests' expectations.

2016 年，我們對我們交付的新船 AIDAprima、Carnival Vista、Holland America（聽不清）和 Seabourn Encore 感到特別興奮，它們提供了戶外溜冰場、漂流河遊樂設施、露天天空遊樂設施等創新功能。海上 IMAX 影院和 BLEND，第一個專門建造的海上個性化葡萄酒混合場所以及許多其他場所，所有這些都旨在幫助超越客人的期望。

We expect each delivery to help drive demand well in excess of our measured supply growth.

我們預計每次交付都將有助於推動需求遠遠超過我們衡量的供應增長。

Our capacity growth in both North America and Europe is less than 2% next year.

明年我們在北美和歐洲的產能增長都低於 2%。

As expected, our overall 3.5% capacity growth is less than the industry growth and will again be weighted toward the Asia-Pacific region as we transfer our capacity to meet the increasing demand there.

正如預期的那樣，我們整體 3.5% 的產能增長低於行業增長，隨著我們轉移產能以滿足那裡不斷增長的需求，我們將再次向亞太地區傾斜。

We remain committed to our ongoing strategy to drive demand and our booking levels for the first three quarters of 2016 are well ahead of last year with pricing comparisons turning increasingly positive.

我們仍然致力於推動需求的持續戰略，2016 年前三個季度的預訂水平遠高於去年，價格比較變得越來越積極。

Of course, we start the year with our usual degree of caution since we give guidance before the wave season begins and we face more difficult comparisons as we lap our very strong 2015 success.

當然，我們以通常的謹慎程度開始新的一年，因為我們在波浪季節開始之前提供指導，並且隨著我們在 2015 年取得非常強勁的成功，我們面臨著更困難的比較。

At this point in time, we expect a favorable environment in North America tempered somewhat by ongoing geopolitical and macro economic uncertainties, particularly for European markets and destinations.

目前，我們預計北美的有利環境會在一定程度上受到持續的地緣政治和宏觀經濟不確定性的影響，尤其是對歐洲市場和目的地而言。

We currently expect another 20% improvement in earnings in 2016 to a midpoint of $3.25.

我們目前預計 2016 年收益將再增長 20%，達到 3.25 美元的中點。

That's a historical high for our Company and more than double what we earned in 2013 as we benefit from continued strong operational execution and at the moment an added boost from the net impact of fuel and currency.

這是我們公司的歷史新高，是我們 2013 年收入的兩倍多，因為我們受益於持續強勁的運營執行以及目前燃料和貨幣淨影響的額外推動。

Now while we cannot count on this benefit from fuel and currency over time and while the path may not always be smooth, we are confident in achieving our double-digit threshold and we have multiple avenues to get there.

現在，雖然我們不能指望隨著時間的推移從燃料和貨幣中獲得這種好處，而且道路可能並不總是一帆風順，但我們有信心實現兩位數的門檻，我們有多種途徑可以實現這一目標。

So while we are briefly celebrating the year, and indeed it was a great year, we remain focused on our primary objective.

因此，雖然我們正在簡短地慶祝這一年，而且確實是偉大的一年，但我們仍然專注於我們的主要目標。

We expect return on invested capital of 8.5% in 2016 and we expect to reach double-digit return on invested capital in the next two to three years.

我們預計 2016 年的投資資本回報率為 8.5%，我們預計未來兩到三年的投資資本回報率將達到兩位數。

And now I'd like to turn it over to David.

現在我想把它交給大衛。

Thank you, Arnold.

謝謝你，阿諾德。

Before I begin, please note all of my references to revenue, ticket prices and cost metrics will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated.

在開始之前，請注意，除非另有說明，否則我對收入、票價和成本指標的所有引用都將採用不變貨幣。

I will start today with a summary of our 2015 fourth-quarter and full-year results.

我將在今天開始總結我們 2015 年第四季度和全年的業績。

Then I will provide some insights on current booking trends and finish up with some color on our 2016 December guidance.

然後我將提供一些關於當前預訂趨勢的見解，並為我們的 2016 年 12 月指南添加一些色彩。

Our adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.50.

我們第四季度的調整後每股收益為 0.50 美元。

This was $0.12 above the midpoint of our September guidance.

這比我們 9 月指導的中點高 0.12 美元。

The improvement was essentially driven by two things -- $0.04 from net revenue yields, which benefited from improved pricing on last-minute bookings, as well as strong onboard spending, and $0.05 from lower fuel prices and currency.

這種改善主要是由兩件事推動的——淨收入收益率為 0.04 美元，這得益於最後一分鐘預訂價格的提高，以及強勁的機上支出，以及燃料價格和貨幣下降的 0.05 美元。

I am pleased to report that we still would have been significantly higher than guidance even without the benefit of lower fuel prices and currency.

我很高興地報告，即使沒有較低的燃料價格和貨幣的好處，我們仍然會大大高於指導。

Now let's turn to the fourth-quarter operating results versus the prior year.

現在讓我們看看第四季度的經營業績與上一年的對比。

Our capacity increased 2%.

我們的產能增加了 2%。

The North American brands were essentially flat, while the European, Australian and Asian brands, also known as our EAA brands, were up close to 6%.

北美品牌基本持平，而歐洲、澳大利亞和亞洲品牌，也稱為我們的 EAA 品牌，上漲近 6%。

Our total net revenue yields in the fourth quarter were up just over 4%.

我們第四季度的總淨收入收益率僅增長了 4% 以上。

Let's break apart the two components of net revenue yield.

讓我們分解淨收入收益率的兩個組成部分。

Net ticket yields were up almost 4% driven by our North American brands from improvement in the Caribbean and late-season Alaska programs.

由於加勒比地區和阿拉斯加季末計劃的改善，我們的北美品牌推動淨門票收益率增長了近 4%。

Net onboard and other yield increased just over 4.5%, mainly related to bar, casino and communications as our initiatives in those areas continue to pay dividends.

船上淨收益和其他收益增長略高於 4.5%，主要與酒吧、賭場和通信有關，因為我們在這些領域的舉措繼續帶來紅利。

Net cruise cost per ALBD, excluding fuel, were up just over 3%, which was in line with September guidance.

每艘 ALBD 的淨巡航成本（不包括燃料）僅增長了 3% 以上，這與 9 月份的指導值一致。

In summary, the fourth-quarter adjusted EPS was $0.23 higher than the prior year driven by operational improvements worth $0.13 and favorable net impact of lower fuel prices and currency worth $0.10.

總之，第四季度調整後的每股收益比上年高 0.23 美元，這得益於價值 0.13 美元的運營改進以及較低的燃料價格和價值 0.10 美元的貨幣的有利淨影響。

Now let's look back at the full year.

現在讓我們回顧一下全年。

Our adjusted EPS was $2.70 versus $1.93 for the prior year.

我們調整後的每股收益為 2.70 美元，而去年為 1.93 美元。

The $0.77 improvement resulted from $0.46 of operational improvements driven by a strong 4.3% revenue yield improvement and a $0.31 benefit from lower fuel prices and currency.

0.77 美元的改進源於 0.46 美元的運營改進，這得益於強勁的 4.3% 的收入收益率提高以及 0.31 美元的燃料價格和貨幣下降帶來的收益。

The 2015 adjusted EPS exceeded the high end of the initial guidance range we gave last December of $2.30 to $2.60.

2015 年調整後每股收益超過了我們去年 12 月給出的初始指導範圍的高端，即 2.30 美元至 2.60 美元。

The improvement over last year's December guidance resulted from essentially two things -- $0.40 of higher net revenue yield from better-than-expected net ticket yields at our North American brands driven by Carnival Cruise Lines and stronger onboard and other yields.

與去年 12 月指引相比的改善主要源於兩件事 - 由嘉年華郵輪公司推動的北美品牌淨票收益好於預期，淨收益收益增加 0.40 美元，以及船上收益和其他收益增加。

This was partially offset by a $0.10 drag from fuel prices and currency.

這被燃料價格和貨幣的 0.10 美元拖累部分抵消。

Let's turn to booking trends for 2016.

讓我們轉向 2016 年的預訂趨勢。

As I indicated at the beginning of my remarks, all of my references to ticket prices will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated.

正如我在發言開始時所指出的，除非另有說明，否則我對票價的所有參考都將採用不變貨幣。

We have transitioned our P&L analysis from constant dollars to constant currency.

我們已將損益分析從固定美元轉換為固定貨幣。

We are now working to transition our bookings data to constant currency as well, which we expect to complete over the next year.

我們現在也在努力將我們的預訂數據轉換為固定貨幣，我們預計將在明年完成。

We do currently have some bookings data in constant currency that we will share with you.

我們目前確實有一些固定貨幣的預訂數據，我們將與您分享。

However, you will occasionally hear me refer to certain bookings data in terms of constant dollar until the transition is complete.

但是，在過渡完成之前，您偶爾會聽到我以不變美元的形式引用某些預訂數據。

Remember that constant dollar comparisons do not remove transactional currency impacts.

請記住，不變的美元比較不會消除交易貨幣的影響。

For example, constant dollar does not remove the currency impact of the Aussie dollar revenue at our US dollar brand Princess Cruises.

例如，固定美元並不能消除我們的美元品牌公主郵輪的澳元收入對貨幣的影響。

At this point in time, for the first three quarters of 2016, cumulative fleetwide bookings are well ahead at slightly higher prices.

在這個時間點，2016 年前三個季度，船隊的累計預訂量以略高的價格遙遙領先。

The fact that we are well-ahead on the booked position with less left to sell should bode well for pricing on future bookings.

事實上，我們在預定位置上遙遙領先，剩下的待售商品更少，這對未來的預訂定價來說是個好兆頭。

Now let's drill down into the cumulative fleetwide book position.

現在讓我們深入了解累積的車隊範圍內的賬面位置。

First, for our North American brands, Caribbean occupancy is well ahead of the prior year at higher prices.

首先，對於我們的北美品牌而言，加勒比地區的入住率遠超前一年，價格較高。

For Alaska, occupancy is nicely ahead of the prior year at higher prices.

對於阿拉斯加來說，入住率大大高於去年，價格較高。

2015 was a great Alaskan season and 2016 is shaping up to be even better.

2015 年是一個偉大的阿拉斯加賽季，而 2016 年將變得更好。

For the seasonal European program, occupancy is nicely ahead of the prior year at lower constant dollar prices, primarily driven by transactional currency and ship mix as the Carnival Vista is sailing a Mediterranean program this summer right after we take delivery of the ship in Italy.

對於季節性的歐洲計劃，在較低的固定美元價格下，入住率大大高於上一年，這主要是受交易貨幣和船舶組合的推動，因為今年夏天我們在意大利接收船舶後，嘉年華 Vista 將在地中海航行。

Secondly, for our EAA brands, both occupancy and pricing are in line with the prior year.

其次，對於我們的 EAA 品牌，入住率和定價均與上一年持平。

Now turning to booking volume.

現在轉向預訂量。

Since September, for the first three quarters of 2016, booking volumes are in line with the prior year at higher prices.

自 9 月以來，2016 年前三個季度的預訂量與上年持平，價格較高。

Since our book position is ahead and we have less to sell than the prior year, booking volumes being in line with the prior year is an encouraging trend that gives us the opportunity to get higher prices on the remaining bookings.

由於我們的預訂位置領先，我們的銷售量比上一年少，預訂量與上一年持平是一個令人鼓舞的趨勢，這使我們有機會在剩餘預訂中獲得更高的價格。

Finally, I want to provide you with some color on 2016.

最後，我想為你提供一些關於 2016 的顏色。

Many early indications are positive, but, as Arnold mentioned, our guidance is tempered by ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly for the European markets and destinations.

許多早期跡像是積極的，但正如阿諾德所說，我們的指導受到持續的地緣政治和宏觀經濟不確定性的影響，尤其是對歐洲市場和目的地而言。

With that said, for 2016, we are expecting net revenue yields to grow by approximately 3%.

話雖如此，我們預計 2016 年的淨收入收益率將增長約 3%。

This increase does include 1 point of yield resulting from an accounting reclassification in our EAA segment.

這一增長確實包括我們的 EAA 部門的會計重新分類產生的 1 個收益點。

However, the reclassification has no impact on operating income as the dollar change in net revenues is offset by an equivalent dollar change in the cruise cost.

然而，重新分類對營業收入沒有影響，因為淨收入的美元變化被郵輪成本的等值美元變化所抵消。

For the full year, we are expecting to see yield improvement in almost all itineraries.

全年，我們預計幾乎所有行程的收益都會有所提高。

However, we are being cautious on Asia where industry capacity is expected to increase by 33% this year and Australia where the industry capacity is expected to increase by 19%.

然而，我們對今年行業產能預計將增長 33% 的亞洲和預計行業產能將增長 19% 的澳大利亞持謹慎態度。

Now turning to costs.

現在轉向成本。

Net cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are expected to be up approximately 2% for 2016.

預計 2016 年每 ALBD 的淨巡航成本將增加約 2%。

However, this does include a 1.5 point increase resulting from the reclassification in our EAA segment that I previously mentioned.

但是，這確實包括我之前提到的在我們的 EAA 細分中重新分類導致的 1.5 個點的增加。

Without the reclassification, costs would be flat to up slightly, which is in line with what I indicated on the September conference call.

如果沒有重新分類，成本將持平或略有上升，這與我在 9 月電話會議上所說的一致。

Broadly speaking, there are four major drivers of the cost change.

從廣義上講，成本變化有四個主要驅動因素。

First, we expect to benefit about 0.75 of a point from the lower drydock days in 2016.

首先，我們預計 2016 年干船塢天數減少約 0.75 個百分點。

Secondly, we are forecasting about a point of benefit as we further leverage our scale.

其次，隨著我們進一步利用我們的規模，我們正在預測一個收益點。

Offsetting these benefits is about 1.5 points for forecasted inflation and additional investments in both the products and new markets, which we expect to cost about 0.5 point.

抵消這些收益的成本約為 1.5 個百分點，用於預測通脹以及對產品和新市場的額外投資，我們預計這將花費約 0.5 個百分點。

This includes enhancements to both entertainment and food, along with the upfront investments by Carnival Cruise Line and AIDA in 2016 to support their entry into China in 2017.

這包括娛樂和美食的增強，以及嘉年華郵輪公司和 AIDA 在 2016 年的前期投資，以支持它們在 2017 年進入中國。

For 2016, we are forecasting to benefit from the impacts of lower fuel prices, which we expect to be partially offset by the stronger dollar.

對於 2016 年，我們預計將受益於燃料價格下跌的影響，我們預計這將被美元走強部分抵消。

The net favorable impact of lower fuel prices and currency included in our guidance is $0.22 versus the prior year.

我們指引中包含的較低燃料價格和貨幣的淨有利影響為 0.22 美元，與上一年相比。

Putting all these factors together, our adjusted EPS for 2016 is $3.10 to $3.40 versus $2.70 for 2015.

綜合所有這些因素，我們調整後的 2016 年每股收益為 3.10 美元至 3.40 美元，而 2015 年為 2.70 美元。

And now I wanted to share with you some of our current rules of thumb about the impact of currency and fuel prices on our 2016 results.

現在，我想與您分享我們目前關於貨幣和燃料價格對我們 2016 年業績影響的一些經驗法則。

To start with, a 10% change in all relevant currencies relative to the US dollar would impact our P&L by approximately $0.30 for the full year and $0.04 for the first quarter.

首先，所有相關貨幣相對於美元的 10% 變化將影響我們全年的損益約 0.30 美元和第一季度的 0.04 美元。

For fuel price changes, a 10% change in the current stock price represents a $0.10 impact to the full year and $0.02 impact for the first quarter.

對於燃料價格變化，當前股價變化 10% 對全年影響 0.10 美元，對第一季度影響 0.02 美元。

The third rule of thumb relates to our fuel derivative portfolio.

第三條經驗法則與我們的燃料衍生產品組合有關。

A 10% change in Brent would result in a $0.04 change in realized losses on fuel derivative for the full year and a $0.01 impact for the first quarter.

布倫特原油價格變動 10% 將導致全年燃料衍生品的已實現損失變動 0.04 美元，並對第一季度產生 0.01 美元的影響。

On a final note, for your planning purposes, I wanted to let you know that we expect the March conference call to be a little later in March than usual to allow time for internal management meetings that will be held around the South Florida Cruise Shipping Convention in mid-March.

最後一點，出於您的計劃目的，我想讓您知道，我們預計 3 月的電話會議將在 3 月比往常稍晚一點，以便有時間在南佛羅里達郵輪會議期間舉行內部管理會議三月中旬。

And now I will turn the call back over to Arnold.

現在我將把電話轉回給阿諾德。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Operator, now let's open it up for questions, please.

接線員，現在讓我們打開它來提問。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

As a reminder, this question-and-answer session is being recorded Friday, December 18, 2015.

提醒一下，本次問答環節將於 2015 年 12 月 18 日星期五錄製。

Harry Curtis, Nomura.

哈里·柯蒂斯，野村。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

First with a revenue-related question.

首先是與收入相關的問題。

You talked about the inventory left to sell.

您談到了剩餘的待售庫存。

If you could put that in percentage terms, do you have 50% of your inventory left to sell through the first three quarters?

如果你可以用百分比來表示，你是否還有 50% 的庫存要在前三個季度出售？

I'm just trying to get a sense of how much is left to sell.

我只是想知道還有多少可以賣。

Generally speaking, when we talk about where we are at this point in time for the whole year, we are about half sold, far more sold than the first and second quarter than the back half of the year, but we are about 50% sold on average.

一般來說，當我們談論我們在這個時間點全年的位置時，我們大約賣出了一半，比第一季度和第二季度的銷量遠高於下半年，但我們大約賣出了 50%一般。

Okay, very good.

好的，非常好。

And then my second question is related to fuel.

然後我的第二個問題與燃料有關。

Do you have any interest in changing the way that you are approaching your hedges given the extremely low level of bunker fuel and the impact that it could have should the price of Brent for whatever reason increase significantly?

鑑於船用燃料的水平極低，以及布倫特原油價格因任何原因顯著上漲可能產生的影響，您是否有興趣改變您接近對沖的方式？

We review that constantly, but so far, with forward pricing, we haven't seen an opportunity to do anything that we think makes sense.

我們不斷審查這一點，但到目前為止，通過遠期定價，我們還沒有看到做任何我們認為有意義的事情的機會。

Obviously, nobody really knows, as is evidenced by what happened the last couple of years, but we constantly review it.

顯然，沒有人真正知道，正如過去幾年發生的事情所證明的那樣，但我們不斷對其進行審查。

But at this time, we see no reason to do anything different.

但在這個時候，我們認為沒有理由做任何不同的事情。

Keep in mind that given the collars and given the fact that the bottom of the collars are roughly $78 to $80, if fuel does go up, we are very well-protected up until the $80 and then we get back into the collars.

請記住，鑑於項圈和項圈底部大約為 78 至 80 美元的事實，如果燃料確實上漲，我們會得到很好的保護，直到 80 美元然後我們回到項圈。

So we are well-protected at the bottom end.

所以我們在底端得到了很好的保護。

Okay.

好的。

My concern is not the bottom end; it's the top end.

我關心的不是底線；這是最高端。

We do have the high end in the collars, but, as Arnold said, we are not changing -- given our point of view and given the amount of collars we have out there, we feel that we are well-protected for the next three years.

我們確實有高端的項圈，但正如阿諾德所說，我們並沒有改變——考慮到我們的觀點和我們擁有的項圈數量，我們認為我們在接下來的三個方面受到了很好的保護年。

All right.

好的。

Perhaps I will give you a shout later on to get into more detail on that.

也許我稍後會大聲告訴你，以便更詳細地了解這一點。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay, you bet.

好吧，你打賭。

And just one last comment, the last time we almost pulled the trigger on that, we would have taken all the losses and then a couple of days later, we would have been back in a loss situation again.

只有最後一條評論，上次我們幾乎扣動扳機時，我們將承擔所有損失，然後幾天后，我們將再次陷入虧損狀態。

So we constantly look at it though.

所以我們一直在看它。

Felicia Hendrix, Barclays.

費利西亞亨德里克斯，巴克萊。

Good morning.

早上好。

Thank you for taking my question.

謝謝你接受我的問題。

So you guys have both said in your prepared remarks in the guidance, in your yield guidance, you built in some cautious outlook.

因此，你們倆都在指導中準備好的評論中說過，在收益指導中，你們建立了一些謹慎的前景。

One point was caution regarding Europe and the geopolitical events.

一點是對歐洲和地緣政治事件的謹慎。

Just wondering how much that's weighing on your yield forecast for 2016.

只是想知道這對您 2016 年的產量預測有多大影響。

At this time, overall, we are being -- we hope we are being conservative.

在這個時候，總的來說，我們正在 - 我們希望我們是保守的。

If you look at the high end of our guidance, that would be a 4% yield improvement.

如果您查看我們指導的高端，那將是 4% 的產量提高。

So definitely it's factored in along with a host of other things, but we feel confident we are going to see yield improvement next year.

所以肯定它與許多其他因素一起被考慮在內，但我們有信心明年會看到產量提高。

At this point in time, we've done what we think is prudent and makes the most sense.

在這個時間點上，我們已經做了我們認為謹慎且最有意義的事情。

We are pre-wave.

我們是前波。

We've got a lot of information yet to see.

我們還有很多信息要查看。

And that 4% is inclusive of the reclassification?

那 4% 包括重新分類嗎？

Yes, on the high end of the guidance.

是的，在指導的高端。

Okay, just wanted to make sure.

好吧，只是想確定一下。

And then just moving to Asia where you are also being cautious because of the capacity increases there, when you look at China specifically for next year, what's the trajectory of pricing that you have baked into your forecasts?

然後只是搬到亞洲，因為那裡的產能增加，你也很謹慎，當你特別關註明年的中國時，你預測的定價軌跡是什麼？

In the end, we expect overall our returns in China to be above the fleet average again next year.

最後，我們預計明年我們在中國的整體回報將再次高於機隊平均水平。

We have a significant capacity increase, 60% [pos] and -- around 60%.

我們有顯著的容量增加，60% [pos] 和 - 大約 60%。

It's a unit growth story for us in China.

這是我們在中國的單位增長故事。

So we are anticipating that while yields may come down a bit on balance, our returns are going to be better than the fleet average and overall, we are very, very positive on the China market.

因此，我們預計，雖然收益率可能總體上會有所下降，但我們的回報將好於船隊平均水平，總體而言，我們對中國市場非常非常樂觀。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Robin Farley, UBS.

瑞銀的羅賓·法利。

Great, thanks.

太謝謝了。

I wonder if you could, on the China question, give us a sense just kind of ballpark of what you think China maybe contributed to your yields in 2015 and what part of your guidance for next year is driven by China.

我想知道您能否在中國問題上讓我們大致了解一下您認為中國可能對您在 2015 年的產量做出的貢獻，以及您對明年的指導有哪些部分是由中國推動的。

In 2015, keep in mind, we did have about a 50% increase in capacity in China.

請記住，2015 年，我們在中國的產能確實增加了約 50%。

And also with the impact of MERS, we did see yields down just a little bit in China in 2015.

此外，由於 MERS 的影響，我們確實看到 2015 年中國的收益率略有下降。

And as Arnold indicated, we are looking at a 60% increase in China capacity in 2016.

正如阿諾德所說，我們預計 2016 年中國產能將增長 60%。

And so -- but it is a unit growth story and China is still getting yields, particularly on the ticket side way above other parts of our business and it's an excellent market and it's gotten a very promising increase.

所以 - 但這是一個單位增長的故事，中國仍在獲得收益，特別是在票務方面高於我們業務的其他部分，這是一個極好的市場，它的增長非常有希望。

Keep in mind though that China is still in 2016 just 5% of our business and so it's a very small piece of the total.

請記住，儘管中國在 2016 年仍僅占我們業務的 5%，因此僅佔總數的一小部分。

But, as Arnold said, it's a unit growth story and over time, we do expect it to be very promising.

但是，正如阿諾德所說，這是一個單位增長的故事，隨著時間的推移，我們確實希望它非常有希望。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

And my other question is I know your commentary about volume and pricing better than the guidance that you had talked about in September, but I'm just thinking about in the last month or the last five weeks, there's been a few incidents in the world.

我的另一個問題是，我比你在 9 月份談到的指導更了解你對數量和定價的評論，但我只是在考慮上個月或過去五週，世界上發生了一些事件.

Can you give us a sense of maybe how -- I would assume there's some volume reduction initially after a disruption and then are volumes back to normal levels now versus a couple of weeks ago?

您能否給我們一個大概的感覺-我會假設在中斷後最初交易量有所減少，然後與幾週前相比，現在交易量恢復到正常水平？

We saw some impact from the events and the media associated with it and obviously saw the European activity was particularly impacted.

我們看到了這些事件和與之相關的媒體的一些影響，顯然歐洲的活動受到了特別的影響。

We saw some movement for North America brands -- for itineraries that had that as a destination.

我們看到了北美品牌的一些變化——以該為目的地的行程。

All that's been factored into our guidance going forward.

所有這些都已納入我們未來的指導。

It's reflected in our projections and we feel confident about the projections at this point in time.

這反映在我們的預測中，我們對此時的預測充滿信心。

Overall, as Arnold indicated, we see the blip, but it has started to improve and we feel very good about the overall trend and where we are today.

總的來說，正如阿諾德所說，我們看到了暫時的變化，但它已經開始好轉，我們對整體趨勢和今天的狀況感覺非常好。

So -- and we built all of that into our current guidance.

所以 - 我們將所有這些都納入了我們當前的指導。

Great.

偉大的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

史蒂夫·維琴斯基，Stifel。

Good morning, guys.

早上好傢伙。

So, David, you kind of glanced over the accounting reclassification, I guess.

所以，大衛，我猜你看了一眼會計重新分類。

Could you go into a little bit more detail as to what exactly it is and I guess why, at this point, why is this being done now?

您能否更詳細地說明它到底是什麼，我猜為什麼，在這一點上，為什麼現在要這樣做？

Steve, it relates, as I said, to the EAA brand and it simply is a re-class between revenue and cost and there is no impact on operating income.

史蒂夫，正如我所說，它與 EAA 品牌有關，它只是收入和成本之間的重新分類，對營業收入沒有影響。

It really benefited internal management reporting and really this change, it's not material.

它確實有利於內部管理報告，而這種變化實際上並不重要。

We weren't even required to disclose it, but we just wanted to be transparent so that everybody understood where the revenue yields were and that the 3% did benefit by about a point of the accounting reclassification.

我們甚至沒有被要求披露它，但我們只是想保持透明，以便每個人都了解收入收益率在哪裡，並且 3% 確實受益於會計重新分類的大約一個點。

So I guess another way to say it too is that if you look at your yield guidance for next year, it's essentially 2% and then I think Arnold noted on the top end of that could be more like 3%.

所以我想另一種說法是，如果你看一下明年的收益率指導，它基本上是 2%，然後我認為阿諾德指出的最高端可能更像 3%。

Is that the right way to think about it?

這是正確的思考方式嗎？

That's the right way to think about it, yes.

這是正確的思考方式，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Then second question, I guess, just a little bit bigger picture question with China.

然後是第二個問題，我想，只是與中國有關的一個更大的問題。

I guess, Arnold, how do you think about the market in terms of you guys are taking a bunch of different brands in that market, AIDA and Costa and some other brands like that.

我想，阿諾德，你如何看待市場，因為你們在那個市場上購買了一堆不同的品牌，AIDA 和 Costa 以及其他一些類似的品牌。

Do you think an AIDA brand will resonate well in that market?

您認為 AIDA 品牌會在該市場引起共鳴嗎？

And is it something that along the lines down the road you could create a little bit more confusion with the tour agencies over there?

沿著這條路走下去，你會不會對那邊的旅行社造成更多的混亂？

I think, first of all, as you are well aware, there are over 100 million outbound tourists in China already and today, cruise is capturing less than a million of those tourists and that number is going to grow dramatically in terms of the total number of outbound tourists and the fit for cruise is far greater than -- less than 1%.

我想，首先，正如你所知道的，中國已經有超過一億的出境游客，而今天，郵輪吸引的遊客還不到一百萬，而且這個數字將在總人數方面急劇增長出境游客的比例和適合遊輪的比例遠大於——不到1%。

So there's plenty of demand.

所以需求量很大。

And then the Chinese are not that different than Americans or Europeans or anyone else.

然後中國人與美國人、歐洲人或其他任何人並沒有什麼不同。

There's a huge distribution curve of different interests and appetites.

不同的興趣和胃口有一個巨大的分佈曲線。

For some, a German product is going to be something they are very excited about; for others, an Italian product; for others, an American product and so on.

對於一些人來說，德國產品將是他們非常興奮的東西；對於其他人，意大利產品；對於其他人，美國產品等等。

And so we see the opportunity in China to introduce a number of brands to take advantage of the pent-up demand there and to fit the various appetites and desires and different types of cruising experiences that the Chinese will want, similar to other people around the world.

因此，我們看到了在中國引入一些品牌的機會，以利用那裡被壓抑的需求，並滿足中國人想要的各種胃口和願望以及不同類型的巡航體驗，類似於中國周圍的其他人世界。

So that's it in a nutshell.

簡而言之就是這樣。

So yes, we are launching AIDA and Carnival brands in 2017.

所以是的，我們將在 2017 年推出 AIDA 和嘉年華品牌。

We already have Princess and Costa there today.

我們今天已經有公主和哥斯達黎加。

We have the joint venture with CSSC and CIC for a domestic brand launch sometime in that kind of timeframe.

我們與 CSSC 和 CIC 建立了合資企業，在這樣的時間範圍內推出國內品牌。

And so we are very excited about China.

所以我們對中國感到非常興奮。

It is today only 5% of our capacity.

今天，它只占我們產能的 5%。

There may be discontinuities at times as you try to get distribution lined up with that pent-up demand, but it's all, from our perspective, very manageable, but a very great market, a strong future market, a contributing market today to the bottom line and to our whole approach on developing relative scarcity around the world.

當你試圖讓分銷與被壓抑的需求保持一致時，有時可能會出現不連續性，但從我們的角度來看，這一切都是非常易於管理的，但是一個非常好的市場，一個強大的未來市場，一個今天的底部市場線以及我們在全球範圍內發展相對稀缺性的整體方法。

So the capacity growth that you see for us, a lot of that goes to China and therefore -- and similar for some of the other companies in the industry as well, and so that constrains the capacity growth in the other markets.

因此，您對我們看到的產能增長，其中很多都流向了中國，因此——對於業內其他一些公司來說也是如此，因此限制了其他市場的產能增長。

Thanks for that, Arnold.

謝謝你，阿諾德。

Could I add one more question onto the end of that I guess?

我可以在我猜的末尾再添加一個問題嗎？

When you look at China next year and your yields there next year, will there be a significant impact from your change in terms of port mix and also some colder itineraries as well?

當你看看明年的中國和明年的產量時，你在港口組合和一些更冷的行程方面的變化是否會產生重大影響？

We've been sailing year round in China for a while.

我們已經在中國全年航行了一段時間。

As you know, we are number one in China in terms of home port activity and so we've been season-long.

如您所知，就母港活動而言，我們在中國排名第一，因此我們已經過了一個賽季。

So you won't see a lot of seasonality in our business.

所以你不會在我們的業務中看到很多季節性。

You won't see a lot of port differentiation at this point either between Shanghai and Tianjin and the mix of our business either in China.

在這一點上，您不會看到上海和天津之間的港口差異以及我們在中國的業務組合。

So we are expecting again good yields in China, better than the fleet average next year, but with capacity expansion, we do recognize it's more of a unit volume growth play than a pure yield play.

因此，我們預計中國的收益率將再次好於明年的船隊平均水平，但隨著產能的擴張，我們確實認識到這更多的是單位產量增長，而不是純粹的收益率。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Steven Kent, Goldman Sachs.

史蒂文肯特，高盛。

Good morning.

早上好。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

First, we saw a news story that Costa will be selling direct in the UK.

首先，我們看到一個新聞報導，Costa 將在英國直接銷售。

Is that something we could see in other markets or for other brands in the UK?

我們可以在其他市場或英國的其他品牌中看到這種情況嗎？

So that's my first question.

所以這是我的第一個問題。

And then, second, look, your guidance has been very conservative the last few quarters.

然後，第二，看，你的指導在過去幾個季度非常保守。

This quarter, $0.50 was $0.10 above the high end of the range.

本季度，0.50 美元比該範圍的高端高 0.10 美元。

I guess what I'm trying to understand from an operating perspective is where is that upside coming from quarter after quarter since so much of your bookings are on the books?

我想從運營的角度來看，我想了解的是，由於您的大量預訂都在賬面上，因此季度又一個季度的上漲空間在哪裡？

They are presold.

它們是預售的。

So I'm trying to see where the variability is when you look back over the past few quarters to the upside.

因此，當您回顧過去幾個季度的上行空間時，我試圖了解可變性在哪裡。

Okay, first of all, concerning the Costa comment, travel agents are absolutely essential to our business.

好的，首先，關於 Costa 的評論，旅行社對我們的業務來說絕對是必不可少的。

They are a critical part of our business.

它們是我們業務的重要組成部分。

And something got lost in translation or whatever, but the bottom line is we are not moving away from travel agents.

有些東西在翻譯或其他方面丟失了，但底線是我們不會離開旅行社。

The reality in the UK for Costa is that they have very little business there and they are choosing to concentrate elsewhere.

Costa 在英國的現實是，他們在英國的業務很少，他們選擇將業務集中在其他地方。

However, travel agents in the UK who choose to book on Costa can still do that.

但是，選擇在 Costa 預訂的英國旅行社仍然可以這樣做。

The existing travel agents who are approved travel agents, they can still do that and they can do it through Genoa and the mechanism is in place.

現有的旅行社是經過批准的旅行社，他們仍然可以這樣做，他們可以通過熱那亞進行，並且機制已經到位。

So something got lost in translation there, but Costa is not going direct in the UK.

所以那裡的翻譯丟失了一些東西，但科斯塔並沒有直接進入英國。

And your second question, Steve, there's a lot of moving pieces to our guidance.

你的第二個問題，史蒂夫，我們的指導有很多動人的部分。

I guess I would categorize them into four categories that affect our ability to get the accuracy correct.

我想我會將它們分為四類，這些類別會影響我們獲得正確準確性的能力。

First of all, the net ticket revenue.

首先是淨門票收入。

Yes, we always say 85% to 95% of our bookings are on the books when we give the conference call, but we are trying to project that last 10% or 15% and like this time in the fourth quarter, we got better last-minute pricing on those bookings and that positively impacted the results.

是的，當我們召開電話會議時，我們總是說我們 85% 到 95% 的預訂都在賬面上，但我們正在努力預測最後的 10% 或 15%，就像第四季度的這個時候，我們最後變得更好了- 這些預訂的分鐘定價，這對結果產生了積極影響。

Second is onboard.

二是機上。

We have no advanced bookings for onboard revenue and it gets very difficult to project the exact amount of money that 2.5 million or 3 million people are going to spend each quarter on our ships.

我們沒有提前預訂船上收入，很難預測每個季度 250 萬或 300 萬人將在我們的船上花費的確切金額。

And so this quarter, we were a couple of cents better on onboard revenue.

所以本季度，我們的船上收入提高了幾美分。

Third is net cruise costs.

第三是淨郵輪成本。

And I think, as I've said in the past, while we are pretty good at the full year, it's very difficult to predict every single month and every single quarter the exact split.

而且我認為，正如我過去所說，雖然我們全年表現非常好，但很難預測每個月和每個季度的確切拆分。

So we do occasionally talk about the seasonality or the timing between the quarters.

所以我們偶爾會談論季節性或季度之間的時間安排。

And really the fourth is fuel and currency.

第四點是燃料和貨幣。

If you've got a crystal ball that we could use, I would love to have it, but I will tell you, we take the current spot price of fuel and the current currency rates and we bake them in and they do change.

如果你有一個我們可以使用的水晶球，我很想擁有它，但我會告訴你，我們採用當前的燃料現貨價格和當前的貨幣匯率，我們將它們烘焙進去，它們確實會改變。

In fact, in the fourth quarter, as I indicated, we saw a $0.05 improvement from the net impact of fuel and currency.

事實上，正如我所指出的，在第四季度，我們看到燃料和貨幣的淨影響增加了 0.05 美元。

So those are the four things that vary and we are doing the best we can.

所以這四件事是不同的，我們正在盡我們所能。

Obviously, we have beaten the high side estimate for a number of quarters in a row and beaten guidance at minimum a number of quarters in a row.

顯然，我們已經連續幾個季度超過了高位估計，並且至少連續幾個季度超過了指導。

We are going to work like crazy to keep doing that.

我們將瘋狂地工作以繼續這樣做。

Having said that, it's not always going to be smooth sailing and certainly quarter-to-quarter not, and maybe not even year-to-year.

話雖如此，它並不總是一帆風順，而且肯定不是每個季度，甚至可能不是每年。

And so we do the best we can in the forecast, but fundamentally we are on a path to get to the double-digit return on invested capital.

因此，我們在預測中盡了最大努力，但從根本上說，我們正走在實現兩位數投資回報率的道路上。

And that's the ultimate goal.

這就是最終目標。

And we celebrate the mileposts along the way and we work like crazy to accelerate achieving that and we will continue to do that.

我們慶祝沿途的里程碑，我們瘋狂地工作以加速實現這一目標，我們將繼續這樣做。

But we are trying to be as transparent as we can.

但我們正在努力做到盡可能透明。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

[Jared Sajan], [Wolfe Resources].

[賈里德薩詹]，[沃爾夫資源]。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您提出我的問題。

So you said advanced bookings are well ahead of last year, but does that apply to advanced book load factors as well more on an occupancy basis?

所以你說提前預訂量遠遠超過去年，但這是否適用於提前預訂量以及更多的入住率？

And if so, how do you arrive at just 2% yield guidance with higher bookings and higher prices?

如果是這樣，您如何在更高的預訂量和更高的價格下獲得僅 2% 的收益率指導？

Thanks.

謝謝。

When we say bookings are ahead, we are talking about booked load factors or occupancy onboard the ship.

當我們說提前預訂時，我們指的是預訂的載客率或船上的佔用率。

So you can say it's sort of like a -- let's call it a capacity-adjusted metric.

所以你可以說它有點像——讓我們稱之為容量調整指標。

So we are definitely looking at occupancy and we are looking at cabin occupancy.

因此，我們肯定會關注入住率，我們正在關注客艙入住率。

Now prices are ahead.

現在價格領先。

We talked about that, but we have only recently seen pricing turn positive, as Arnold had discussed.

我們談到了這一點，但正如阿諾德所討論的那樣，我們直到最近才看到定價轉為正值。

And so overall we had indicated we are slightly ahead and so we do have to see a continuation of this improvement for us to achieve our overall 2% yield guidance in the net ticket yield basis.

因此，總體而言，我們表示我們略微領先，因此我們必須看到這種改進的持續，才能在淨門票收益率基礎上實現 2% 的整體收益率指導。

So with that in mind and also tempered by the macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, we think we gave you our best guess it's a 2% yield guidance, but we hope we are being conservative and do better.

因此，考慮到這一點，並受到宏觀經濟和地緣政治問題的影響，我們認為我們給了你最好的猜測，這是 2% 的收益率指導，但我們希望我們保持保守並做得更好。

3% yield guidance.

3%的收益率指導。

3%, sorry.

3%，對不起。

Forgot about the accounting reclass.

忘記了會計重分類。

Apologize.

道歉。

Right, okay.

對，好吧。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then just as a follow-up, separate question here, are you comfortable taking on incremental debt to fund the buyback?

然後作為一個後續的單獨問題，您是否願意承擔增量債務來為回購提供資金？

And assuming you have $4 billion in CapEx for next year, correct me if that's not the right number, plus about $1 billion for the dividend, it would seem like you would have to take on more debt if you want to buy back stock.

假設你明年有 40 億美元的資本支出，如果這不是正確的數字，請糾正我，加上大約 10 億美元的股息，如果你想回購股票，你似乎必須承擔更多的債務。

So can you just help us understand how you are thinking about that?

所以你能不能幫助我們理解你是怎麼想的？

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Sure.

當然。

Okay, well, it's a couple of factors that we are putting here.

好的，這是我們在這裡提出的幾個因素。

First of all, if you go back to 2015 and you look at what we did, we had, in 2015, about $2 billion of free cash flow.

首先，如果你回到 2015 年，看看我們做了什麼，我們在 2015 年擁有大約 20 億美元的自由現金流。

We returned $800 million in the form of dividends.

我們以股息的形式返還了 8 億美元。

By the end of the year, we had only returned $300 million in the form of share buyback.

到年底，我們僅以股票回購的形式返還了 3 億美元。

So we still -- we returned $1.1 billion and we still, as of year-end, have $900 million of free cash flow that we are expecting to return in 2016.

所以我們仍然——我們返還了 11 億美元，截至年底，我們仍然擁有 9 億美元的自由現金流，預計 2016 年將返還。

And we also have significant free cash flow expected in 2017, so we have plenty of opportunity to return free cash flow to shareholders.

而且我們預計 2017 年的自由現金流也很可觀，因此我們有很多機會將自由現金流返還給股東。

And on top of that, I think I've said this before, over the long run, if all we do is return free cash flow to shareholders because of the earnings over time, we would delever.

最重要的是，我想我之前已經說過，從長遠來看，如果我們所做的只是因為隨著時間的推移而向股東返還自由現金流，我們就會去槓桿化。

So overall debt levels over the extended period of time can increase and we can maintain the same leverage ratios and return that cash flow to shareholders as well.

因此，在很長一段時間內的整體債務水平可能會增加，我們可以保持相同的槓桿比率並將現金流返還給股東。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Jamie Katz, Morningstar.

傑米·卡茨，晨星。

Hi, everybody.

大家好你們好。

Good morning.

早上好。

I have a couple questions.

我有幾個問題。

First, can you talk a little bit about the CSSC relationship and how you are preliminarily thinking about building out that relationship, whether there's an opportunity to move some older ships into capacity there, or if you are thinking about maybe newbuilds despite putting so much new capacity into China, or maybe you haven't gotten to that point yet?

首先，您能否談談 CSSC 的關係，以及您是如何初步考慮建立這種關係的，是否有機會將一些舊船移入那裡，或者您是否正在考慮建造新船，儘管投入了這麼多新船產能進入中國，或者你還沒有到那個地步？

Yes, so, first of all, we had an original memorandum of understanding agreement that basically covered everything -- port development, shipbuilding, domestic cruise company ship-owning, etc.

是的，所以，首先，我們有一份原始的諒解備忘錄協議，基本上涵蓋了一切——港口開發、造船、國內游輪公司擁有船舶等。

And we now have, from that agreement, executed a joint venture agreement around establishing a domestic brand together there.

我們現在已經根據該協議簽署了一項合資協議，圍繞在那里共同建立一個國內品牌。

So we are concepting that out with them.

因此，我們正在與他們一起構思這一點。

Over time, that brand, whatever form it takes, would include both ships transferred in, existing ships, as well as newbuilds over time.

隨著時間的推移，無論採用何種形式，該品牌都將包括轉入的船舶、現有船舶以及隨著時間的推移而新建的船舶。

And clearly, CSSC being a shipbuilding entity is clearly interested eventually in building cruise ships.

顯然，作為造船實體的中船集團最終顯然對建造遊輪感興趣。

And they also have an agreement with [Fan Cantiere] in development around shipbuilding.

他們還與[Fan Cantiere]就造船業的發展達成了協議。

So ultimately, it would involve new ships and just keep in mind that the China market over time will, probably like it is in almost every other consuming activity, be the largest market in the world just from sheer numbers.

因此，最終，它將涉及新船，並且請記住，隨著時間的推移，中國市場可能會像幾乎所有其他消費活動一樣，僅從絕對數量來看，將成為世界上最大的市場。

So over time, China will be able to absorb many, many, many cruise ships.

所以隨著時間的推移，中國將能夠吸收很多很多很多的遊輪。

So we are excited about it.

所以我們對此感到興奮。

We are looking forward to developing it.

我們期待著開發它。

We are excited that that agreement is now reflected in China's national five-year plan showing their commitment to development of a cruise industry and to working with us.

我們很高興該協議現在反映在中國的國家五年計劃中，表明他們致力於發展郵輪業並與我們合作。

And so we are really looking forward to the partnership.

所以我們真的很期待這種夥伴關係。

Okay.

好的。

And then on some of the cost savings that you've talked about, I know in the past you guys have talked about things like air, but I'm curious if the next $75 million in cost savings that you mentioned earlier on the call are coming from new opportunities and maybe what those opportunities are.

然後關於你們談到的一些成本節約，我知道你們過去曾談論過空氣之類的事情，但我很好奇你們之前在電話會議上提到的下一個 7500 萬美元的成本節約是否是來自新的機會，也許這些機會是什麼。

We have efforts going on on an ongoing basis, so it's important for me with the organization that these aren't one-off projects.

我們一直在努力，所以對我來說，這些不是一次性項目對我來說很重要。

Its ongoing underlying behavior, communicating, collaborating, coordinating.

它持續的潛在行為，溝通，協作，協調。

And so airlines, we definitely have realized benefits from that and we will continue to going forward.

所以航空公司，我們肯定已經從中受益，我們將繼續前進。

In the area of food and beverage, we are beginning to pick up momentum in that area across the brands as they collaborate with each other.

在食品和飲料領域，隨著品牌之間的合作，我們開始在該領域獲得動力。

And it's not only on the cost savings side, which was your question, but it's also on the revenue-generating side in terms of how they package beverage packages, how they are presented to the guests, who presents them to the guests, the incentives involved, the timing and learnings from that that actually help drive onboard revenue as well.

這不僅是在成本節約方面，這是你的問題，而且在他們如何包裝飲料包裝、如何呈現給客人、誰向客人呈現它們、激勵措施方面也涉及創收方面所涉及的時間和從中學到的東西實際上也有助於推動船上收入。

Other areas include technical, which we are at the very beginning of.

其他領域包括技術，我們處於起步階段。

There's huge opportunity in that area and we are not even -- we've barely begun that one.

該領域有巨大的機會，而我們甚至還沒有——我們才剛剛開始。

And there are a host of other areas as well.

還有許多其他領域。

Yes, things like media buying and marketing, port shore excursions.

是的，比如媒體購買和營銷、港口岸上游覽。

There's a long list of things.

有一長串的事情。

We are working through them in a variety of phases because you can't accomplish everything at one time.

我們正在分多個階段完成這些工作，因為您無法一次完成所有工作。

So we did a point last year, $75 million to $80 million last year.

所以我們去年做了一點，去年從 7500 萬美元到 8000 萬美元。

We are doing another $75 million this year and we hope to continue to be able to produce additional savings in 2017 and beyond.

今年我們將再投入 7500 萬美元，我們希望能夠在 2017 年及以後繼續產生額外的節省。

And again, it's not just a one-shot deal.

再說一次，這不僅僅是一筆交易。

These are ongoing behaviors that constantly drive savings in the areas, so it's not a one and done in the various areas, but we are very excited about them, especially excited about seeing the behavior and the enthusiasm of our various team members who are engaged in this and working together.

這些是持續推動各領域儲蓄的持續行為，因此它不是在各個領域都完成的，但我們對它們感到非常興奮，尤其是看到我們參與其中的各個團隊成員的行為和熱情這和一起工作。

Okay.

好的。

And then, lastly, would you guys be kind enough to offer just capacity growth by quarter if you have it?

然後，最後，如果你們有的話，你們會願意按季度提供產能增長嗎？

It is 3.9% for the first quarter, 1.8% for the second, 3.9% for the third, 4.3% for the fourth for a total of 3.5% on the year.

第一季度為 3.9%，第二季度為 1.8%，第三季度為 3.9%，第四季度為 4.3%，全年總計 3.5%。

Excellent.

出色的。

Thank you, guys, so much.

謝謝你們，伙計們，非常感謝。

Tim Conder, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國銀行證券的蒂姆·康德。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Just a couple here.

這裡只有一對。

Arnold, you had mentioned when you sort of started laying out your vision for the Company here of it's much easier to generate incremental revenue from your existing customer base.

阿諾德，當你開始在這里為公司規劃願景時，你曾提到，從現有客戶群中產生增量收入要容易得多。

Can you maybe give us an update as to where repeaters stand right now, maybe just in North America and Europe?

您能否向我們介紹一下中繼器現在的位置，也許只是在北美和歐洲？

I know a lot of the new customers are coming from Asia, but just in North America and Europe, your customer base repeaters versus first-timers?

我知道很多新客戶來自亞洲，但僅在北美和歐洲，您的客戶群是回頭客還是新手？

And then as it relates to China, how should we think about comps sitting net yields versus as you expand into new sourcing areas from China versus capacity?

然後，當它與中國有關時，我們應該如何看待淨產量與您從中國擴展到新的採購領域與產能的比較？

I guess if we had to break down your net yield outlook, it sounds like it's going to be down a little bit given multiple factors, are comps sitting at yields still looking pretty good?

我想如果我們不得不打破你的淨收益率前景，聽起來它會因為多種因素而下降一點，坐在收益率上的組合看起來仍然不錯嗎？

And then I guess do you have to lower a price for somebody that's a first-timer in China?

然後我想你是否必須為在中國第一次來的人降低價格？

Okay.

好的。

Well, let me answer your first question with regards to just onboard revenue generation.

好吧，讓我回答你關於船上創收的第一個問題。

Could you repeat that again -- the first part of your question?

你能再重複一遍嗎——你問題的第一部分？

It relates mostly to (multiple speakers).

它主要與（多個發言者）有關。

Oh, first-timers, (multiple speakers) about first-timers.

哦，初學者，（多位發言者）關於初學者。

In US and Europe in particular.

特別是在美國和歐洲。

Yes, two disruptions for first-timers.

是的，對初學者來說有兩次干擾。

First, there was a lot of capacity last year in the Caribbean, a lot of capacity and to fill that capacity, we had to have last year a lot of first-timers to fill out that capacity last year.

首先，去年加勒比地區有很多容量，很多容量，為了填補這個容量，去年我們必須有很多第一次來填補這個容量。

It was a major increase and I'm talking now 2014, okay, in the Caribbean.

這是一個重大的增長，我現在說的是 2014 年，好吧，在加勒比地區。

And so that expanded the base for the Caribbean.

從而擴大了加勒比地區的基地。

You mentioned China already as being the other component.

你已經提到中國是另一個組成部分。

Outside of those two dynamics, the trends are pretty much the same as they have been in the past, which is a smaller and smaller percentage of new to cruise only because the base is getting larger and that base grows and capacity isn't expanding dramatically.

除了這兩種動態之外，趨勢與過去幾乎相同，新郵輪的比例越來越小，只是因為基地越來越大，基地在增長，而產能並沒有顯著擴大.

So there's always a slight downward trend in number of new to cruise required if you don't have significant capacity increase in any other market.

因此，如果您在任何其他市場沒有顯著的運力增加，所需的新郵輪數量總是會出現輕微下降的趨勢。

So it's just an artifact of the numbers.

所以這只是數字的產物。

If you look at our total business though, that's a little bit different because we have approaching 11 million individual guests a year and probably 3.4 million of those are new to cruise.

但是，如果您查看我們的總業務量，情況會有所不同，因為我們每年有接近 1100 萬個人客人，其中可能有 340 萬是新來的郵輪。

A large portion of that number -- it used to be 2.7 million.

這個數字的很大一部分——它曾經是 270 萬。

A large portion of that number is driven by China and as I mentioned, that big expansion in 2014 of capacity in the Caribbean.

這一數字的很大一部分是由中國推動的，正如我所提到的，2014 年加勒比地區的產能大幅擴張。

In regards to China, we don't have like same city, if that was what you were asking.

關於中國，我們沒有相同的城市，如果那是你要問的。

Our sourcing -- we expand the sourcing as we expand ships, but the ports that they are selling from are the same and so Shanghai and basically Tianjin.

我們的採購——我們在擴大船舶的同時擴大採購，但是他們銷售的港口是相同的，所以上海和天津基本上都是一樣的。

And so we are expanding the sourcing, we are reaching further out into the China market for guests, but in terms of -- the ports are pretty much the same.

因此，我們正在擴大採購範圍，我們正在進一步進入中國市場以接待客人，但就港口而言 - 幾乎相同。

Yes, and Tim, when you look at it, same port year-over-year, we are actually hoping to do better year-over-year in the yields, but keep in mind, as Arnold indicated, we are looking at approximately a 50%, 60% capacity increase in China.

是的，蒂姆，當你看它時，同一個港口的年復一年，我們實際上希望在產量上比去年做的更好，但請記住，正如阿諾德所說，我們正在研究大約中國產能增加50%、60%。

So we are being cautious, as I indicated, in our guidance as we move forward into next year.

因此，正如我所指出的，我們在進入明年的指導中保持謹慎。

But, remember, overall that China yields are better than the fleet average.

但是，請記住，總體而言，中國的產量要好於船隊的平均水平。

It is only 5% of our overall business and it is a great market.

它僅占我們整體業務的 5%，是一個巨大的市場。

And so it's a unit growth story and the operating income in China is improving quite dramatically from 2015 to 2016.

所以這是一個單位增長的故事，中國的營業收入從 2015 年到 2016 年正在顯著改善。

Okay.

好的。

I guess with the questioning on China, I was just trying to understand, as the industry has entered the market, you get the great prices and if you are growing penetration, should you still get that same price because everybody is coming from the same base of not knowing what a cruise is.

我想隨著對中國的質疑，我只是想了解，隨著行業進入市場，你會得到很好的價格，如果你的滲透率越來越高，你是否仍然會得到同樣的價格，因為每個人都來自同一個基地不知道遊輪是什麼。

So -- or is it just trying to put a lot of capacity through a very tight funnel?

那麼——或者它只是試圖通過一個非常緊湊的漏斗來增加大量容量？

Is that what's pulling the yields down?

這就是拉低收益率的原因嗎？

But I do get the thing that overall from a global mix standpoint, this is still very, very positive for yourselves and the industry.

但我確實明白，從全球混合的角度來看，這對你們自己和行業來說仍然非常非常積極。

Again, there are some discontinuities potentially in the market because of the way the distribution channel operates and where we are chartering ships and what have you.

同樣，由於分銷渠道的運作方式以及我們在哪裡租船以及您擁有什麼，市場上可能存在一些不連續性。

But philosophically, our intent is for strong pricing in China and China is a place where we are profitable.

但從哲學上講，我們的意圖是在中國實現高定價，而中國是我們盈利的地方。

We intend to be profitable and if things started moving a different direction or prices plummeted too far, then we would pace the growth and we would change destinations for the ships.

我們打算盈利，如果事情開始朝著不同的方向發展或價格暴跌太多，那麼我們將加快增長速度，我們將改變船舶的目的地。

We don't have any interest in creating a market in China, that's a big discount market or anything like that.

我們對在中國創造市場沒有任何興趣，那是一個很大的折扣市場或類似的市場。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

Thanks for the clarification.

感謝您的澄清。

(technical difficulty) but it's still above the fleet average.

（技術難度）但仍高於機隊平均水平。

Okay, thank you for the clarification and great year.

好的，謝謝你的澄清和美好的一年。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Kevin Milota, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的凱文米洛塔。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Two model-related questions here.

這裡有兩個與模型相關的問題。

Within your guidance, have you assumed any buybacks and if so, could you give us a dollar amount that's pegged there?

在您的指導下，您是否承擔了任何回購，如果是，您能否給我們一個與那裡掛鉤的美元金額？

And then secondly, on the income statement, what -- in the $3.10 to $3.40 EPS guidance, what are you factoring in for the fuel derivative net impact to EPS?

其次，在損益表中，在 3.10 美元至 3.40 美元的每股收益指引中，您考慮到燃料衍生品對每股收益的淨影響是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Sure.

當然。

We did not include any -- we did not assume any additional buybacks in our guidance.

我們沒有包括任何 - 我們沒有在我們的指導中假設任何額外的回購。

We had bought back a little over 8 million shares as of yesterday.

截至昨天，我們已經回購了略高於 800 萬股的股票。

We did assume that in our guidance, but we have not assumed any additional.

我們確實在我們的指導中假設了這一點，但我們沒有假設任何其他內容。

And as I did mention, we probably still have another $900 million or $800 million from this point forward of free cash flow from last year that we can return to shareholders.

正如我確實提到的那樣，從去年的自由現金流開始，我們可能還有 9 億或 8 億美元可以返還給股東。

As far as the $3.10 to $3.40, the fuel derivative, I think it was --.

至於 3.10 美元到 3.40 美元的燃料衍生品，我認為是——。

It looks like about 200 --.

它看起來大約有200——。

No, no, no, in 2016, it was $336 million of losses.

不，不，不，2016 年的損失是 3.36 億美元。

And that's on a net basis?

那是在淨基礎上嗎？

Realized losses, yes.

已實現損失，是的。

Okay.

好的。

And could you just confirm the dollar amount?

你能確認一下美元金額嗎？

So you did $300 million in buybacks in the fourth quarter and about $100 million or so here in the first quarter of 2016?

所以你在第四季度回購了 3 億美元，在 2016 年第一季度回購了大約 1 億美元？

Yes, something close to that.

是的，差不多的東西。

Okay.

好的。

Very good.

很好。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Dan McKenzie, Buckingham Research.

白金漢研究中心的丹·麥肯齊。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, guys.

早上好傢伙。

Congrats on the quarter.

祝賀本季度。

I am wondering if you can talk a little bit or just update us a little bit on your port expansion in Asia just in general and when any potential new ports might come online.

我想知道您是否可以談談或只是向我們介紹一下您在亞洲的港口擴張總體情況以及任何潛在的新港口何時上線。

And just tied to that, how you would expect that to benefit the China part of your business.

與此相關的是，您期望這如何使您的業務中的中國部分受益。

Over time, there's no question there's going to have to be additional ports in China and obviously, there are a number of local entities in China working on that if we are focused on China.

隨著時間的推移，毫無疑問，中國將不得不增加更多的港口，顯然，如果我們專注於中國，中國有許多地方實體正在為此努力。

To handle the volume in China, there's actually going to have to be expansion in ports surrounding China as well, so Taiwan, Korea, Japan.

為了處理中國的吞吐量，實際上也必須在中國周邊的港口進行擴張，比如台灣、韓國、日本。

It will be necessary to expand the capacity of those ports to handle the Chinese guests.

有必要擴大這些港口接待中國客人的能力。

So that's all in discussion and under analysis and development and it is definitely going to be required as is expanding the cruise terminals in Shanghai and in Tianjin and points nearby there.

因此，這一切都在討論中，正在分析和開發中，並且肯定會需要擴展上海和天津的郵輪碼頭以及附近的點。

Basically those same cities but different locations for the terminals.

基本上是那些相同的城市，但航站樓的位置不同。

So all of that is underway.

所以這一切都在進行中。

It's all going to take some time, but with the pace of things, keep in mind we can only build so many ships a year because there's only so many shipyards.

這一切都需要一些時間，但隨著事情的發展，請記住，我們一年只能建造這麼多船，因為只有這麼多的造船廠。

There's demand right now everywhere in the world for cruising, so you are only going to move so many ships from other markets into the China market.

現在世界各地都有對巡航的需求，所以你只能將這麼多船從其他市場轉移到中國市場。

So there is a natural pace to this that exists because again of the artifacts of the construct with shipyards and demand elsewhere in the world.

因此，由於造船廠的人工製品和世界其他地方的需求，因此存在自然的步伐。

So we are working diligently and I'm sure others are too and looking at different ports in China, as well as working with ports in Asia, throughout Asia, where the Chinese would want to sail to.

因此，我們正在努力工作，我相信其他人也在努力工作，正在研究中國的不同港口，並與亞洲的港口合作，在整個亞洲，中國人想航行到的地方。

I guess kind of what I'm wondering is if the ports would represent a capacity constraint to that part of the world because, as you think about outbound travel of China doubling by 2020, just given the macro volatility, that statistic is perhaps something less than that, but I'm guessing cruise ports aren't going to double by 2020.

我想我想知道的是，這些港口是否會代表世界該地區的容量限制，因為考慮到到 2020 年中國的出境游人數將翻一番，鑑於宏觀波動，該統計數據可能會少一些不止於此，但我猜郵輪港口到 2020 年不會翻一番。

I'm just wondering if you can just --.

我只是想知道你是否可以--。

They probably won't.

他們可能不會。

You are absolutely right.

你是絕對正確的。

There is a bit of a constraint.

有一點限制。

But the other thing to think about is fly cruise for the Chinese, which helps demand in all the rest of the world markets.

但要考慮的另一件事是中國的飛行巡航，這有助於世界其他所有市場的需求。

So the bulk of those 100 million tourists today are flying out to somewhere and so fly cruise for the Chinese to Europe, to North America, to Alaska, to the Caribbean, they become a huge source market for existing itineraries and that will be part of the opportunity as well.

因此，今天這 1 億遊客中的大部分都飛往某個地方，因此中國人乘坐郵輪飛往歐洲、北美、阿拉斯加、加勒比海，他們成為現有行程的巨大客源市場，這將成為機會也是如此。

I see.

我懂了。

Thanks for the color.

謝謝你的顏色。

Assia Georgieva, Affinity Research.

Assia Georgieva，親和力研究。

Good morning and congratulations on the great results.

早上好，祝賀您取得了不錯的成績。

I had a couple of quick questions.

我有幾個簡單的問題。

Q1 is going to be probably a little bit stronger then Q2 and that's probably because you have much more of an exposure to the Caribbean (technical difficulty) Q2 Europe may be somewhat weaker.

Q1 可能會比 Q2 強一點，這可能是因為您更多地接觸加勒比海（技術難度） Q2 歐洲可能會稍微弱一些。

We probably are still close to the Paris events and is it fair to assume that it's not going to be a bell curve sequentially Q1 through the rest of the year and that Q2 might be a slight downward blip?

我們可能仍然接近巴黎事件，並且可以公平地假設它不會在第一季度到今年剩餘時間依次呈鐘形曲線並且第二季度可能會略有下降嗎？

The reason that Q1 was better has a lot to do with the comparison to the prior year.

第一季度更好的原因與去年的比較有很大關係。

It's got more favorable comparisons because the second, third and fourth quarter of last year were up more than the first quarter.

由於去年第二、第三和第四季度的漲幅高於第一季度，因此比較有利。

So it's a little bit on the prior-year comparison.

因此，與上一年的比較略有不同。

But your point is well taken.

但是你的觀點很好。

We talked about the Caribbean doing very well, talked about it being booked well-ahead.

我們談到加勒比地區做得很好，談到它被提前預訂。

It's at nicely higher prices and as a result of that, the first quarter we do expect to be a little bit better than the remainder of the year in terms of the net revenue yield.

它的價格要高得多，因此，我們確實預計第一季度的淨收入收益率會比今年剩餘時間好一點。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

And the second question is more of a philosophical question, if you will.

如果你願意的話，第二個問題更像是一個哲學問題。

It seems that a lot of the newbuilds that are going to be headed to China in 2016 and 2017 and that's on an industrywide basis are going to spend if they can the European summer season in Europe.

如果可以在歐洲度過歐洲夏季，許多將在 2016 年和 2017 年運往中國的新造船似乎將在整個行業的基礎上投入使用。

Is that because you are trying to take advantage of that strong season despite the very good yields that you are getting in China?

是不是因為儘管你們在中國獲得了非常好的單產，但你們仍試圖利用那個旺季？

We can't speak for others.

我們不能替別人說話。

We can only speak for ourselves and for us, our first newbuild going into China will be the Majestic Princess in 2017 with our Princess Cruise Lines.

我們只能為我們自己和我們自己說話，我們進入中國的第一艘新船將是 2017 年與我們的公主郵輪公司一起進入中國的 Majestic Princess。

And our focus is to get her into China.

我們的重點是讓她進入中國。

She's purpose-built for China.

她是專為中國打造的。

She does do a little bit in Med.

她確實在Med做了一點點。

And she does a little bit of Med, but the ships are built in Europe and have to be translocated over to their destination market.

她做了一點地中海，但這些船是在歐洲建造的，必須轉運到目的地市場。

So in our case, she will do some inaugural stuff in Europe simply as a way to make her way over to China.

所以在我們的案例中，她將在歐洲做一些就職活動，只是作為她進入中國的一種方式。

Okay.

好的。

Take care and again congratulations.

保重，再次祝賀。

Operator, I guess we will take one more question at this point.

接線員，我想我們會在這一點上再回答一個問題。

Brian Egger, Bloomberg.

布賴恩·艾格，彭博社。

Good morning.

早上好。

I just wanted to parse the language a little bit on your 2016 yield outlook.

我只是想稍微分析一下您的 2016 年收益展望。

So in September, you had said that first-half cumulative bookings were well-ahead on lower constant dollar prices and now I think are saying first three quarters, they are well-ahead on slightly higher constant currency prices.

因此，在 9 月，您曾說過上半年累計預訂量在較低的固定美元價格下遙遙領先，而現在我認為前三個季度在固定貨幣價格略高的情況下遙遙領先。

So I just wanted to know if that generalization would be the same if you had revised that in constant dollar terms -- just make sure there's no change in significance there.

所以我只是想知道，如果你以不變的美元計算，這種概括是否會相同——只要確保那裡的重要性沒有變化。

Yes, the most important thing, if I go back, we were behind in constant currency and as we said, for the last three quarters, prices were up and now we are ahead.

是的，最重要的是，如果我回頭看，我們落後於固定匯率，正如我們所說，過去三個季度，價格上漲，現在我們領先了。

And so it's been a good booking quarter for us, good volumes, higher prices, as Arnold indicated, an improving pricing trend and that's why we are forecasting the yield improvement.

因此，這對我們來說是一個很好的預訂季度，數量充足，價格上漲，正如阿諾德所說，定價趨勢正在改善，這就是我們預測產量提高的原因。

It was something we had expected would occur and it has occurred over the last 13 weeks.

這是我們預期會發生的事情，並且在過去 13 週內已經發生。

But the difference isn't in the terminology -- or in the metric of constant dollar versus constant currency.

但區別不在於術語，也不在於不變美元與不變貨幣的度量。

The difference is actually in the bookings.

區別實際上在於預訂。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Hey, look, everyone, I want to thank you all for being on the call.

嘿，看，大家，我要感謝大家的電話。

Thank you for helping us celebrate what was really a great year.

感謝您幫助我們慶祝真正偉大的一年。

Happy holidays to everyone and I will be a little unprofessional and say happy birthday to our Chief Financial Officer here.

祝大家節日快樂，我會有點不專業，在這裡向我們的首席財務官說生日快樂。

It's David Bernstein's birthday today, so David, happy birthday.

今天是大衛伯恩斯坦的生日，所以大衛，生日快樂。

Hey, everyone, thank you very much and happy holidays.

大家好，非常感謝你們，節日快樂。