嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2014 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fourth-quarter 2014 earnings call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Friday, December 19, 2014. I would now like to turn the conference over to Arnold Donald. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 2014 年第四季度財報電話會議。在演示過程中，所有參與者都將處於只聽模式。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2014 年 12 月 19 日星期五錄製。我現在想將會議交給 Arnold Donald。請繼續，先生。

Hi, everyone. This is Arnold Donald, CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc. And happy holidays. Thank you all for joining us for our fourth-quarter 2014 earnings conference call.

大家好。我是 Carnival Corporation & plc 的首席執行官 Arnold Donald。和節日快樂。感謝大家參加我們的 2014 年第四季度財報電話會議。

Today with me are Chairman, Micky Arison; our CFO, David Bernstein; and Beth Roberts, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

今天和我在一起的是主席 Micky Arison；我們的首席財務官大衛伯恩斯坦；以及我們的投資者關係副總裁 Beth Roberts。

Before I begin, please note that as some of our remarks on this call will be forward looking, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release.

在我開始之前，請注意，由於我們在本次電話會議上的一些言論將是前瞻性的，因此我必須向您推薦今天新聞稿中的警示性聲明。

We finished our fiscal year with a strong fourth quarter, exceeding guidance even before factoring in the benefits of lower fuels and leading to 2014 full-year cash from operations of nearly $3.5 billion. Earnings growth of almost 25% over 2013 and well above our full-year guidance. That performance is a credit to our outstanding 120,000 team members and associates across the globe.

我們以強勁的第四季度結束了我們的財政年度，甚至在考慮低燃料的好處之前就超過了預期，並導致 2014 年全年運營現金接近 35 億美元。與 2013 年相比，盈利增長近 25%，遠高於我們的全年指引。這一表現要歸功於我們在全球範圍內傑出的 120,000 名團隊成員和員工。

In 2014, we enjoyed some early wins on our cross-brand collaboration efforts, and we had a number of significant achievements. Importantly, the groundwork for continued progress is laid for 2015 and beyond as we aggressively move toward double-digit return on invested capital.

2014 年，我們在跨品牌合作方面取得了一些早期的勝利，並取得了許多重大成就。重要的是，隨著我們積極朝著兩位數的投資資本回報邁進，為 2015 年及以後繼續取得進展奠定了基礎。

Overcoming a number of obstacles, as is often the case, including the loss of higher-yielding itineraries due to geopolitical concerns, dramatic capacity increases in the Caribbean and capacity absorption issues in Japan, as well as some other one-off impacts, we were still able to deliver very strong results.

克服了許多障礙（通常情況下），包括由於地緣政治問題導致高收益行程的損失、加勒比地區的運力急劇增加和日本的運力吸收問題，以及其他一些一次性影響，我們仍然能夠提供非常強大的結果。

Despite the aforementioned competitive Caribbean environment, in fact, the team effort at the Carnival brand delivered a mid-single-digit improvement in yield last quarter and a solid profit improvement for the year, exceeding our internal plans. We made consistent progress in Europe as Costa and AIDA continue to improve yields and contain costs through the benefit of cross-collaboration efforts among our European brands. In addition, the formation of the HAL Group, the Holland America Line group, [on design] cruise has helped to accelerate cross-brand collaboration and streamline non-customer-facing functions on the West Coast.

儘管存在上述競爭激烈的加勒比海環境，但事實上，嘉年華品牌的團隊努力在上個季度實現了中個位數的收益增長和全年利潤的穩健增長，超出了我們的內部計劃。我們在歐洲取得了持續進展，因為 Costa 和 AIDA 繼續通過我們歐洲品牌之間的交叉合作努力提高產量並控製成本。此外，HAL Group、Holland America Line group、[on design] Cruise 的成立有助於加速跨品牌合作並簡化西海岸非面向客戶的功能。

In China, operating profit more than tripled due to a combination of capacity growth and yield improvement. I have personally made several trips to China and am confident in our positioning and the market's potential. Clearly, we have established a solid foothold in this very important region as the largest player home porting in China, and our development strategy is accelerating.

在中國，由於產能增長和產量提高，營業利潤增長了兩倍多。我個人曾多次前往中國，對我們的定位和市場潛力充滿信心。顯然，作為中國最大的母港，我們已經在這個非常重要的地區站穩了腳跟，我們的發展戰略正在加速。

Our Chief Operations Officer, Alan Buckelew, is doing a great job, having recently relocated to Shanghai. As previously announced, we have signed a memorandum of understanding with CSSC to explore the possibility of shipbuilding as well as other strategic partnerships to force the growth of the industry in China. Additionally, we entered into an agreement with Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri to join us in the exploration of shipbuilding with CSSC.

我們的首席運營官 Alan Buckelew 工作出色，最近剛搬到上海。正如之前宣布的，我們已經與中船集團簽署了一份諒解備忘錄，以探索造船以及其他戰略合作夥伴關係的可能性，以推動該行業在中國的發展。此外，我們與意大利造船廠 Fincantieri 簽訂協議，與中船共同探索造船。

This year, we also reduced fuel consumption by another 5%, or $0.14 per share, bringing the cumulative reduction at 25% since 2007. We are committed to reducing consumption, and the technology that we are rolling out next year will continue to improve the fuel efficiency of our fleet. At the same time, by developing and installing exhaust gas cleaning technology we will greatly mitigate the impact of ECA coming into effect in January.

今年，我們還將油耗降低了 5%，即每股 0.14 美元，自 2007 年以來累計降低了 25%。我們致力於降低油耗，明年我們將推出的技術將繼續改進我們車隊的燃油效率。同時，通過開發和安裝廢氣淨化技術，我們將大大減輕1月份ECA生效的影響。

Importantly, we made continued progress toward enhancing our fleet while maintaining our commitment to measured capacity growth. We delivered two spectacular and considerably more efficient ships, the Regal Princess and the Costa D'Adamo. We celebrated their delivery with two highly publicized naming ceremonies this past quarter first. There was the star-studded Love Boat-themed guest list on board the Regal Princess in North America. And shortly thereafter, it was followed by the stunning D'Adamo two days later, in fact, christened by one of our own valued travel agent partners, Carolina Micheli in Italy, and supported by Maids of Honors, also travel agent partners from Germany, France, Spain and China.

重要的是，我們在加強我們的機隊方面取得了持續進展，同時保持了我們對衡量容量增長的承諾。我們交付了兩艘壯觀且效率更高的船舶，Regal Princess 和 Costa D'Adamo。我們首先在上個季度舉行了兩次廣為人知的命名儀式來慶祝他們的交付。北美富豪公主號上有星光熠熠的愛情船主題賓客名單。此後不久，兩天后，令人驚嘆的 D'Adamo 緊隨其後，事實上，它由我們自己重要的旅行社合作夥伴之一，意大利的Carolina Micheli 命名，並得到了來自德國的旅行社合作夥伴的榮譽女僕的支持，法國、西班牙和中國。

We are very excited about our new ship deliveries which, combined with the ship exits, result in only a 2% net capacity increase next year. In early 2015, we will welcome the new flagship for the P&O fleet, the Britannia, specifically built for our UK guests and the first to feature the striking rendition of the Union Jack across her hull, as well as a host of new entertainment options. Then later in the year, we will welcome the AIDA Prima to Germany, featuring an energy-efficient new hull design. And just this month, we signed orders for three ships, Seabourn, Holland America Lines and the Carnival line for delivery in 2018, which brings the total order book to 10 vessels. Now, that's an average of roughly one ship per brand in total over a four-year period, reflecting our commitment to measured capacity growth.

我們對我們的新船交付感到非常興奮，再加上船舶出口，明年的淨運力僅增加 2%。 2015 年初，我們將迎來 P&O 船隊的新旗艦“不列顛尼亞”號，它專為我們的英國客人建造，是第一艘在船體上展示英國國旗的醒目演繹，以及一系列新的娛樂選擇。然後在今年晚些時候，我們將歡迎 AIDA Prima 來到德國，採用節能的新船體設計。而就在本月，我們簽下了Seabourn、Holland America Lines和Carnival Line 3艘2018年交付的船舶訂單，訂單總量達到10艘。現在，在四年的時間裡，每個品牌平均大約有一艘船，這反映了我們對衡量產能增長的承諾。

This past quarter, we reached agreements to sell three less efficient ships, bringing the total sales agreements reached this year to four, also reinforcing our commitment to measured capacity growth. And at the same time, we are striving to create relative scarcity by driving additional demand. We have a number of demand-creating initiatives that we have already or will be rolled out soon. Beginning with a significant public relations effort across all brands to get our message to the vacationing public on what a great experience and, of course, value cruising represents.

上個季度，我們達成了出售三艘效率較低船舶的協議，使今年達成的總銷售協議達到四艘，這也加強了我們對衡量運力增長的承諾。與此同時，我們正在努力通過推動額外需求來創造相對稀缺性。我們已經或將很快推出一些創造需求的舉措。從所有品牌的重大公關工作開始，向度假公眾傳達我們的信息，即偉大的體驗，當然還有價值巡航所代表的意義。

Our brand's share of voice and positive mentions in the media were up significantly in 2014.

2014 年，我們品牌在媒體中的發言權和正面評價份額顯著上升。

Ongoing guest experience initiatives have continued to increase our already high satisfaction levels and drive advocacy among our established base of repeaters. Maintaining our focus on creating demand, we have also further stepped up our marketing efforts with planned advertising spend higher than our already elevated spend in the past two years.

正在進行的客戶體驗計劃繼續提高我們已經很高的滿意度，並在我們已建立的回頭客基礎中推動宣傳。繼續專注於創造需求，我們還進一步加大了營銷力度，計劃的廣告支出高於過去兩年已經增加的支出。

In total, our planned spend is nearly 25% higher for 2015 versus 2012. Our 2015 marketing program is designed to reach the new-to-cruise market, including directing them to the experience that best resonates with their vacation preferences, setting them on a journey of being lifelong advocates for cruising on our brand.

總體而言，我們 2015 年的計劃支出比 2012 年高出近 25%。我們 2015 年的營銷計劃旨在打入新郵輪市場，包括引導他們獲得最能與他們的假期偏好產生共鳴的體驗，讓他們處於成為我們品牌的終身倡導者的旅程。

As we head into the important 2015 wave season, we are gearing up these efforts. Yesterday, we announced we will air a commercial on Super Bowl Sunday, the world's biggest marketing stage. The commercial is part of a multi-platform marketing initiative that has already begun and will extend well beyond the Super Bowl itself.

隨著我們進入重要的 2015 年浪潮季節，我們正在加緊這些努力。昨天，我們宣布我們將在世界最大的營銷舞台超級碗週日播出廣告。該廣告是已經開始並將遠遠超出超級碗本身的多平台營銷計劃的一部分。

And as you may have read, we are working with Academy Award winner Wally Pfister, known for his work on the movies Inception, Transcendence, the Dark Knight trilogy and dozens of other films. He will direct four full-production creative concepts. As part of our initiative, we are asking potential guests to provide their input on rough cuts of these concepts. And as an incentive to participate, one lucky person will win a cruise a year for life. Potential guests can check out the concepts by visiting our marketing challenge on the website, worldsleadingcruiselines.com.

正如您可能已經讀到的那樣，我們正在與奧斯卡獎得主 Wally Pfister 合作，他以在電影《盜夢空間》、《超越》、《黑闇騎士》三部曲和其他數十部電影中的作品而聞名。他將指導四個完整的製作創意概念。作為我們倡議的一部分，我們要求潛在的客人就這些概念的粗略提供他們的意見。作為參與的激勵，一位幸運者將終生贏得一年的遊輪。潛在客人可以通過訪問我們在網站 worldsleadingcruiselines.com 上的營銷挑戰來查看這些概念。

The focus of all these efforts is to create relative scarcity by driving demand for our brands that far outpace the supply, ultimately leading to higher yields.

所有這些努力的重點是通過推動對我們品牌的需求遠遠超過供應，從而創造相對稀缺性，最終導致更高的產量。

At the same time, we've embarked on a number of strategic initiatives designed to move our Company forward and improve our top and bottom lines beginning with our segmentation study in North America, the first we have done across brands and the largest ever done in our industry, and it's nearing completion. Enabling us to gain insight on what guests value to increase our share of wallet, both in ticket and onboard. We conducted extensive interviews with over 40,000 respondents, and then we data mined our 30 million past guest database for insights to help grow demand.

與此同時，我們已經開始了一系列戰略舉措，旨在推動我們的公司向前發展，並從我們在北美的細分研究開始，改善我們的收入和利潤，這是我們第一次跨品牌進行，也是有史以來規模最大的一次。我們的行業，它即將完成。使我們能夠深入了解客人的價值，以增加我們在機票和機上的錢包份額。我們對超過 40,000 名受訪者進行了廣泛採訪，然後我們對過去 3000 萬客戶數據庫進行了數據挖掘，以獲取有助於增長需求的見解。

The biggest opportunity for our industry is to increase our consideration in the overall vacation market. And at the Carnival Corporation, we are currently identifying the key areas to strengthen and improve our brands based on the segments that resonate most with each brand.

我們行業最大的機會是增加我們對整個度假市場的考慮。在嘉年華公司，我們目前正在根據與每個品牌產生最大共鳴的細分市場來確定加強和改進我們品牌的關鍵領域。

We've elevated our level across brand global deployment planning, and our objective in enhancing coordination of deployment across our brands is to drive greater penetration, more effective capacity management and ultimately yields. Our first pass deep-dive examination of our revenue management practices has been completed. That actually was the first time we've looked at this important function across all brands to share best practices and identify gaps, new practices, and the best tools to use across the brand.

我們提高了品牌全球部署規劃的水平，我們加強品牌間部署協調的目標是推動更大的滲透率、更有效的容量管理和最終收益。我們對收入管理實踐的第一次深入檢查已經完成。這實際上是我們第一次在所有品牌中查看這一重要功能，以分享最佳實踐並確定差距、新實踐以及在整個品牌中使用的最佳工具。

To facilitate our ongoing effort, we recently hired a new Vice President of Group Revenue Performance -- what internally we call all brands -- to sustain collaboration and rapid adoption of improved revenue management approaches. In core markets with strong brand overlap, price decisions have already started to be coordinated across the brands. The brands have shared cutting-edge tools and are now aligning among revenue management improvement roadmaps, leading to more efficient and more effective efforts to increase yields.

為了促進我們的持續努力，我們最近聘請了一位新的集團收入績效副總裁 - 我們在內部稱之為所有品牌 - 以維持協作和快速採用改進的收入管理方法。在具有強烈品牌重疊的核心市場，價格決策已經開始在各個品牌之間進行協調。這些品牌共享了尖端工具，現在正在調整收入管理改進路線圖，從而更高效、更有效地提高產量。

Onboard, we've made continued progress on our strategy in the shops to improve retail, beginning with a mix of short-term initiatives and longer-term efforts including new partnerships and store redesigns. Pilot ships are seeing double-digit improvement in sales from our short-term initiatives.

在船上，我們在商店戰略上不斷取得進展，以改善零售，從短期舉措和長期努力的組合開始，包括新的合作夥伴關係和商店重新設計。通過我們的短期舉措，領航船的銷售額實現了兩位數的增長。

Concerning cost containment, we made progress leveraging our scale. Some early wins already contributed, not including inflation avoidance, $20 million in 2014. We anticipate another $70 million to $80 million in actual year-to-year cost reductions to benefit 2015 from our savings on multiple procurement initiatives, including protein, produce, and of course air. Now, that will be a total of $100 million in cumulative cost reductions by the end of 2015.

在成本控制方面，我們利用規模取得了進展。一些早期的勝利已經貢獻了 2014 年的 2,000 萬美元，不包括避免通貨膨脹。我們預計實際每年的成本將再減少 7,000 萬美元至 8,000 萬美元，以使 2015 年受益於我們在多種採購計劃（包括蛋白質、農產品和當然是空氣。現在，到 2015 年底，累計成本削減總額將達到 1 億美元。

We clearly have further opportunity in the area of ports, shore excursions, and technical purchasing. Over time, these leveraging initiatives will help offset inflation in the broader base of non-fuel purchases.

我們顯然在港口、岸上游覽和技術採購方面還有更多機會。隨著時間的推移，這些槓桿舉措將有助於抵消更廣泛的非燃料購買基礎的通脹。

We believe we are executing along a path toward double-digit return on invested capital. We improved return on invested capital by nearly one point in 2014, and we expect another point of improvement in 2015. Clearly, we cannot save our way to 10%-plus return on invested capital; we need to drive yield growth. We need to drive it in the low- to mid-single-digit range through higher ticket and onboard revenues.

我們相信我們正在朝著兩位數的投資資本回報率前進。我們在 2014 年將投資資本回報率提高了近一個點，我們預計 2015 年還會再提高一個點。顯然，我們無法挽救超過 10% 的投資資本回報率。我們需要推動產量增長。我們需要通過更高的機票和機上收入將其推向中低個位數範圍。

We are committed to driving relative scarcity by creating even more demand for our brands that outpace this capacity. We are focused on measured capacity growth by delivering innovative and significantly more efficient ships while at the same time removing from service less efficient ships. This ongoing rotation will enhance the return potential of our fleet over time.

我們致力於通過為我們的品牌創造更多超過這種能力的需求來推動相對稀缺性。我們專注於通過提供創新且效率顯著提高的船舶來衡量運力增長，同時從服務中淘汰效率較低的船舶。隨著時間的推移，這種持續的輪換將提高我們機隊的返回潛力。

And clearly, we need to contain cost increases through our initiatives to leverage scale. Despite the higher hurdle on cost containment that measured capacity growth introduces, we expect our initiatives to offset inflation over the next few years before re-investment opportunities. But of course, we will continue to explore investment opportunities that provide attractive returns and drive yield improvement.

顯然，我們需要通過我們利用規模的舉措來控製成本增加。儘管衡量產能增長帶來了更高的成本控制障礙，但我們預計我們的舉措將在未來幾年抵消通脹，然後再投資機會。但當然，我們將繼續探索可提供有吸引力的回報並推動收益率提高的投資機會。

So in summary, again, we believe we are firmly on a path to achieving double-digit return on invested capital in the next three to four years.

因此，總而言之，我們相信我們將堅定地在未來三到四年內實現兩位數的投資資本回報率。

And before I turn it over to David, we are very excited to announce that Christine Duffy, former Cruise Lines International Association President, will join the company and lead the Carnival Cruise Lines brand. In addition, Orlando Ashford has been appointed head of our Holland America brand. Christine brings over 30 years of experience in the travel industry, complementing with her front-of-house skill set the great operational team we have onboard already in Carnival. And Orlando Ashford has a great history and track record of high-performance culture change that he has done in a number of organizations through his previous responsibilities and a high compliment to the team overall that we have as a leadership team and the skill sets we have on our overall management team.

在我把它交給大衛之前，我們非常高興地宣布，前國際郵輪協會主席克里斯汀·達菲將加入公司並領導嘉年華郵輪品牌。此外，奧蘭多·阿什福德被任命為我們荷美品牌的負責人。 Christine 在旅遊行業擁有 30 多年的經驗，她的前台技能與我們在嘉年華已經擁有的優秀運營團隊相得益彰。奧蘭多·阿什福德（Orlando Ashford）有著悠久的歷史和高績效文化變革的記錄，他通過他以前的職責在許多組織中完成了這一工作，並對我們作為領導團隊的整體團隊和我們擁有的技能給予了高度讚揚在我們的整體管理團隊中。

So overall, we are very confident in our path forward. And I would now like to turn it over to David for comments.

所以總的來說，我們對前進的道路充滿信心。我現在想把它交給大衛徵求意見。

Thank you, Arnold. Before I begin, please note all of my references to revenue and cost metrics will be in constant dollars, as this is a much more meaningful measure of our business trends.

謝謝你，阿諾德。在我開始之前，請注意我對收入和成本指標的所有引用都將以美元為單位，因為這是衡量我們業務趨勢的更有意義的指標。

I'll start today with a summary of our guidance-topping fourth-quarter and full-year results. Then I'll provide some insight into our current bookings and finish up with some color on our 2015 December guidance.

我將在今天開始總結我們的指導最高的第四季度和全年業績。然後，我將對我們當前的預訂提供一些見解，並在我們的 2015 年 12 月指南中添加一些顏色。

Our non-GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.27. I'm excited to report that this was $0.10 above the midpoint of our September guidance and would have been above the high end of the September guidance range even without the benefit of lower fuel prices. The improvement was essentially driven by two things: $0.05, the majority of which we benefited from higher onboard and other yields as the improvement we saw in the third quarter was repeated again in the fourth quarter; and $0.05 from lower fuel prices.

我們第四季度的非公認會計原則每股收益為 0.27 美元。我很高興地報告，這比我們 9 月指導的中點高出 0.10 美元，即使沒有降低燃料價格的好處，也會高於 9 月指導範圍的高端。改善主要是由兩件事推動的：0.05 美元，其中大部分受益於更高的車載和其他收益，因為我們在第三季度看到的改善在第四季度再次重複； 0.05 美元來自較低的燃料價格。

Now let's look at our fourth-quarter operating results versus the prior year. Our capacity increased 2%. The North American brands were up 2.5% while our European, Australia and Asian brands, also known as our EAA brands, were up 1%. Our total net revenue yields in the fourth quarter were up almost 3%. Now let's break apart the two components of net revenue yields.

現在讓我們看看我們第四季度的經營業績與上一年的對比。我們的產能增加了 2%。北美品牌上漲 2.5%，而我們的歐洲、澳大利亞和亞洲品牌（也稱為 EAA 品牌）上漲 1%。我們第四季度的總淨收入收益率增長了近 3%。現在讓我們分解淨收入收益率的兩個組成部分。

Net ticket yields were up over 2%, and this was driven by 2%-plus increases on both sides of the Atlantic. Improvements in the North American brands were driven by seasonal European programs and late-season Alaskan sailings. Improvements in the EAA brands were driven by net itineraries and Australia. Net onboard and other yields increased over 4%, with increases on both sides of the Atlantic as well and across the board in almost all onboard categories. This increase was considerably more positive than our September guidance. It was another great quarter for onboard revenues.

淨機票收益率增長超過 2%，這是由大西洋兩岸 2% 以上的增長推動的。北美品牌的改進是由季節性的歐洲項目和晚季阿拉斯加航行推動的。 EAA 品牌的改進是由網絡行程和澳大利亞推動的。船上和其他淨產量增長超過 4%，大西洋兩岸以及幾乎所有船上類別的全面增長。這一增長比我們 9 月份的指導要積極得多。這是船上收入的另一個好季度。

Net cruise costs per ALBD, excluding fuel, was down almost 2%, which was in line with the September guidance and driven by the timing of expenses between the quarters, as the full year was up slightly.

每艘 ALBD 的淨巡航成本（不包括燃料）下降了近 2%，這與 9 月份的指引一致，並且受到季度間支出時間安排的推動，全年略有上升。

Fuel prices this quarter were down 13% versus the prior year, which saved us $0.09 per share.

本季度的燃料價格與去年同期相比下降了 13%，每股節省了 0.09 美元。

In summary, fourth-quarter non-GAAP EPS was $0.23 higher than the prior year, driven by improved net revenue yields worth $0.11, lower net cruise costs excluding fuel worth $0.04 and lower fuel prices worth $0.09.

總而言之，第四季度非公認會計原則每股收益比上年高 0.23 美元，這是由於淨收入收益率提高了 0.11 美元、不包括燃油的淨巡航成本降低了 0.04 美元以及燃油價格降低了 0.09 美元。

During the fourth quarter, there were a number of items that were included in our US GAAP results but excluded from our non-GAAP results, such as an $18 million restructuring charge as we further leveraged our scale. All of these items are detailed in the reconciliation table in our press release.

在第四季度，我們的美國公認會計原則結果中包含了許多項目，但我們的非公認會計原則結果中排除了一些項目，例如我們進一步利用規模時產生的 1800 萬美元的重組費用。所有這些項目都在我們新聞稿的調節表中詳細說明。

Looking back at the full year, we turned the corner in 2014 with improved earnings and positive yields. Our non-GAAP EPS was $1.96 versus $1.58 for the prior year, roughly a 25% increase. Our non-GAAP EPS exceeded the high end of our December guidance range of $1.40 to $1.80. The improvement over last year's December guidance was essentially driven by two things. $0.31, primarily from improved net revenue yields. This resulted from better-than-expected net ticket yields at our continental European best brands, and better-than-expected onboard and other yields in the back half of the year. And $0.05 from lower fuel prices.

回顧全年，我們在 2014 年迎來轉機，盈利改善，收益率為正。我們的非公認會計原則每股收益為 1.96 美元，而上一年為 1.58 美元，增長了約 25%。我們的非公認會計原則每股收益超過了我們 12 月指導範圍 1.40 美元至 1.80 美元的高端。與去年 12 月指引相比的改善主要是由兩件事推動的。 0.31 美元，主要來自淨收入收益率的提高。這是由於我們歐洲大陸最佳品牌的淨票收益好於預期，以及下半年的機上和其他收益好於預期。以及較低的燃油價格帶來的 0.05 美元。

Turning to our cash flows for 2014, cash provided by operations was nearly $3.5 billion, 21% higher than last year. And capital expenditures, net of asset sales, were roughly $2.5 billion, leaving us nearly $1 billion of free cash flow, most of which was returned to shareholders via our regular quarterly dividend.

談到我們 2014 年的現金流，運營提供的現金接近 35 億美元，比去年增長 21%。扣除資產銷售後的資本支出約為 25 億美元，為我們留下近 10 億美元的自由現金流，其中大部分通過我們的定期季度股息返還給股東。

Looking forward to 2015, as always we will have a much better indication of demand once we get into wave season, which is still a few weeks away. But the early indications are positive. For 2015, we are expecting net revenue yields in constant dollars to grow by approximately 2%. As we indicated in the press release, we are forecasting net revenue yields in the first quarter to be up only slightly, which is impacting the full-year average. We expect the remaining three quarters of 2015 collectively to be up 2.5% in constant dollars. And if you normalize for the transactional currency impact, the yields for the remaining three quarters combined would be up 3%.

展望 2015 年，我們將一如既往地在進入波季後獲得更好的需求指標，而波季還需要幾週的時間。但早期跡像是積極的。對於 2015 年，我們預計以固定美元計算的淨收入收益率將增長約 2%。正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，我們預計第一季度的淨收入收益率只會小幅上升，這會影響全年平均水平。我們預計 2015 年剩餘的三個季度以固定美元計算將共同上漲 2.5%。如果您將交易貨幣影響正常化，剩餘三個季度的總收益率將上升 3%。

Our forecasted net revenue yields are prepared based on constant dollars. The constant dollar calculation normalizes for the impact of currency translation for those entities whose functional currency is different from the US dollar. What is not taken into consideration in the constant dollar calculation is the transactional impact relating to changes in exchange rates on revenues that are in a currency other than the brand's functional currency.

我們預測的淨收入收益率是根據不變的美元編制的。對於功能貨幣不同於美元的實體的貨幣換算影響，固定美元計算標準化。不變美元計算中沒有考慮到與匯率變化對以品牌功能貨幣以外的貨幣計價的收入相關的交易影響。

Historically, the transactional impact of currency on net revenue yields has been de minimis. However, we will continue to monitor transactional currency impacts and highlight them when it makes sense.

從歷史上看，貨幣對淨收入收益率的交易影響微乎其微。但是，我們將繼續監控交易貨幣的影響，並在有意義時強調它們。

So in summary, our constant-dollar, full-year net revenue yield guidance of approximately 2% is impacted both by the first-quarter yield guidance, which is a couple of percentage points lower than the rest of your collectively, and transactional currency impacts.

因此，總而言之，我們約 2% 的固定美元全年淨收入收益率指引受到第一季度收益率指引的影響，該指引比您的其他整體低幾個百分點，以及交易貨幣影響.

The first quarter continues to be impacted by capacity in the Caribbean, which represents almost half of our first-quarter capacity. But for the subsequent three quarters of the year, the Caribbean only represents on average less than 30% of our capacity. For the full year, we are expecting to see yield improvement in almost all itineraries, including the Caribbean. However, we are being cautious in Australia, where the industry capacity is expected to increase by 20% this year.

第一季度繼續受到加勒比地區產能的影響，這幾乎占我們第一季度產能的一半。但在接下來的三個季度中，加勒比海地區平均只占我們運力的不到 30%。全年，我們預計包括加勒比海地區在內的幾乎所有航線的收益都會有所提高。然而，我們對澳大利亞持謹慎態度，預計今年該行業的產能將增加 20%。

Now let's turn to bookings. At this point, for the first three quarters of 2015 cumulative fleet-wide bookings are nicely ahead at slightly higher prices for both of our two major business segments.

現在讓我們轉向預訂。在這一點上，2015 年前三個季度的車隊範圍內的累計預訂量以略高的價格在我們的兩個主要業務部門中遙遙領先。

Drilling down into the booking patterns, first, for our North American brands the Caribbean capacity is currently in line -- I'm sorry -- the Caribbean pricing is currently in line with the prior year at nicely higher occupancy, which bodes well for pricing on future bookings. Booking volumes during the last quarter are down, but that's because we are ahead, and we are still ahead at the moment.

深入研究預訂模式，首先，對於我們的北美品牌，加勒比地區的運力目前符合——我很抱歉——加勒比地區的定價目前與上一年持平，入住率更高，這對定價來說是個好兆頭關於未來的預訂。上個季度的預訂量有所下降，但那是因為我們領先，而且目前我們仍然領先。

Remember, it is a zero-sum game. Prices on these bookings are down slightly, which is reflected in our first-quarter yield guidance. All other North American brand appointments combined, which includes the seasonal European program and Alaska, are nicely ahead on both price and occupancy. Booking volumes during the last quarter have been good, ahead of the prior year but at lower prices driven by transactional currency impacts.

請記住，這是一場零和遊戲。這些預訂的價格略有下降，這反映在我們的第一季度收益率指導中。包括季節性歐洲項目和阿拉斯加在內的所有其他北美品牌預約在價格和入住率方面均遙遙領先。上一季度的預訂量一直不錯，高於去年同期，但受交易貨幣影響，價格較低。

Secondly, our EAA brands. Europe itineraries are nicely ahead on occupancy at better prices. Booking volumes for these itineraries during the last quarter are also nicely higher than the prior year at better prices.

其次，我們的 EAA 品牌。歐洲行程以更優惠的價格在入住率方面遙遙領先。上一季度這些行程的預訂量也大大高於去年，而且價格更優惠。

Now turning to cost. Net cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are expected to be up approximately 3% for 2015. As I mentioned on the September conference call, the majority of the increase is due to significantly higher drydock fees in 2015, as we are working hard to accomplish a number of things. First, installing exhaust gas cleaning systems, or more commonly known as scrubbers, which will reduce the impact of the new 2015 ECA requirements.

現在轉向成本。預計 2015 年每艘 ALBD 不含燃料的淨巡航成本將增長約 3%。正如我在 9 月的電話會議上提到的，大部分增長是由於 2015 年干船塢費用顯著增加，因為我們正在努力實現東西的數量。首先，安裝廢氣淨化系統，或更常見的洗滌器，這將減少 2015 年 ECA 新要求的影響。

Second, installing new fuel efficiency technology to further reduce fuel consumption. And third, progressing the vessel enhancements we announced last year. We expect the majority of the higher drydock costs in 2015 will be reversed, since we currently anticipate a lower level of drydock fees in 2016.

二是安裝新的燃油效率技術，進一步降低燃油消耗。第三，推進我們去年宣布的船舶改進。我們預計 2015 年大部分較高的干船塢成本將被扭轉，因為我們目前預計 2016 年的干船塢費用水平會降低。

Of the remaining one percentage increase, the majority is driven by higher advertising expense and product enhancements.

在其餘 1% 的增長中，大部分是由更高的廣告費用和產品增強驅動的。

For 2015, even after the impact of the new ECA requirements, which we expect to cost about $0.10, we are forecasting the benefits from lower price of fuel net of realized losses on fuel derivatives by $0.61. Partially offsetting this are unfavorable currency exchange rate movements, including both translational and transactional currency impacts, costing us $0.20. Putting all these factors together, our non-GAAP EPS guidance for 2015 is $2.30 to $2.60 versus $1.96 for 2014.

對於 2015 年，即使在新 ECA 要求的影響（我們預計成本約為 0.10 美元）之後，我們預測燃料價格下降（扣除燃料衍生品的已實現損失）帶來的收益將增加 0.61 美元。不利的貨幣匯率變動部分抵消了這一影響，包括換算和交易貨幣影響，成本為 0.20 美元。綜合所有這些因素，我們 2015 年的非公認會計原則每股收益指引為 2.30 美元至 2.60 美元，而 2014 年為 1.96 美元。

On a final note, I want to share with you our current rules of thumb about the impact that currency and fuel prices can have on our results. To start with, a 10% change in all relevant currencies relative to the US dollar would impact our P&L by approximately $0.30 per share for the full year and $0.04 for the first quarter. This includes both translational and transactional currency impact.

最後，我想與您分享我們目前關於貨幣和燃料價格可能對我們的結果產生影響的經驗法則。首先，所有相關貨幣相對於美元的 10% 變化將影響我們全年每股盈虧約 0.30 美元和第一季度每股 0.04 美元。這包括換算和交易貨幣影響。

For fuel price changes, as our fuel insurance program uses zero-cost collars to protect against fuel price spikes, every 10% change in the price of fuel has a different impact once the price of brent moves outside the collars. Therefore, we laid out a sensitivity table in the press release that shows the full-year non-GAAP EPS impact if the price of brent moves up or down from the $63 used to determine our December guidance earlier this week.

對於燃料價格變化，由於我們的燃料保險計劃使用零成本限制來防止燃料價格飆升，一旦布倫特原油價格超出限制範圍，燃料價格每 10% 的變化都會產生不同的影響。因此，我們在新聞稿中列出了一個敏感度表，顯示瞭如果布倫特原油價格從本週早些時候確定我們 12 月指引的 63 美元上下波動，對全年非 GAAP 每股收益的影響。

At the moment, we have collars for roughly half of our consumption for 2015, with floors starting at $80. So essentially we benefit from 100% of the fuel price dropped to $80, and roughly speaking we still enjoy 50% of the benefit of any fuel price drops below $80. I say roughly speaking because in these calculations we assume a static relationship between the price of brent and the price of bunker as each moves up and down. We all know the relationship has a tendency to move over time, but the correlation is recently good over the longer term.

目前，我們在 2015 年的消費中大約有一半擁有衣領，最低價格為 80 美元。因此，基本上我們從 100% 的燃油價格降至 80 美元中受益，粗略地說，我們仍然享有 50% 的燃油價格降至 80 美元以下的收益。我粗略地說是因為在這些計算中，我們假設布倫特原油價格和燃油價格之間存在靜態關係，因為它們各自上下波動。我們都知道這種關係有隨時間變化的趨勢，但從長遠來看，這種相關性最近很好。

In the press release, we also included a table of the fuel derivatives we currently have for 2015 through 2018.

在新聞稿中，我們還列出了我們目前擁有的 2015 年至 2018 年的燃料衍生品表格。

And now, operator, we are ready to open up the call for questions.

現在，接線員，我們準備好發起提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Robin Farley, UBS.

（操作員說明）瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Two questions. First is, I wonder if you could give us any in any kind of cumulative sense how the cost of brand and the Carnival brand at this point through the end of this year are versus peak pricing, going back to 2007. Just to get a sense of how much recovery is left in each of those brands in whatever way you might quantify for that.

兩個問題。首先，我想知道您是否可以從任何累積的意義上告訴我們品牌和嘉年華品牌的成本在今年年底與峰值定價之間的關係，可以追溯到 2007 年。只是想了解一下以您可能量化的任何方式，這些品牌中的每一個都剩下多少恢復。

And then secondly, your ship announcement this morning didn't have the cost per berth. And I wonder if we should assume both of them are sister ships to 2016 deliveries. How different is the cost on the 2018 delivery? Thanks.

其次，你今天早上的船舶公告沒有每個泊位的成本。我想知道我們是否應該假設它們都是 2016 年交付的姐妹船。 2018 年交付的成本有何不同？謝謝。

Happy holidays to you, Robin. First of all, concerning your questions on Costa and Carnival, obviously we typically don't provide brand-specific guidance. But through a lot of hard work, both brands are working their way back. We've been impacted on the Costa brand by significant economic downturn in Europe, but we are definitely on pace for a three- to four-year recovery. We just had a very good year with Costa, and we expect another one. Michael Tam and his team are doing a great job over there. Hopefully, the moderately improving European economic situation is going to help us.

祝你節日快樂，羅賓。首先，關於您對歌詩達和嘉年華的問題，顯然我們通常不提供特定品牌的指導。但通過大量的努力，兩個品牌都在努力回歸。由於歐洲經濟的嚴重衰退，我們對 Costa 品牌產生了影響，但我們肯定正朝著三到四年的複蘇步伐前進。我們剛剛在科斯塔度過了一個非常好的一年，我們期待另一個。 Michael Tam 和他的團隊在那裡做得很好。希望適度改善的歐洲經濟形勢能對我們有所幫助。

And, again, in regards to Carnival, we did a really good job offsetting the revenue shortfall that they experienced in the first half, and then we are working really hard to accelerate that. The profit improvement in 2014 was good, and we see things pointing up, especially as we get into the second and third quarters next year when the Caribbean capacity decreases.

再說一次，關於嘉年華，我們在彌補上半年的收入短缺方面做得非常好，然後我們正在努力加速這一進程。 2014 年的利潤改善很好，我們看到情況有所好轉，尤其是當我們進入明年第二和第三季度加勒比地區產能下降時。

And then concerning your second question on the fleet, the ships that we announced today -- things are tightening up a bit. There is inflation and so on. But we are very pleased with the ships that we've announced in terms of the deals we've constructed for those that gives the shipyard lots of incentive to do high-quality work and gives us an excellent opportunity for a very high return on invested capital, given the ships' designs and the deployment plans for that. I hope I answered your questions, Robin.

然後關於你關於艦隊的第二個問題，我們今天宣布的船隻 - 事情有點緊張。有通貨膨脹等等。但我們對我們宣布的船舶感到非常滿意，我們為那些為造船廠提供大量動力以進行高質量工作並為我們提供非常高的投資回報率的船舶建造的交易考慮到船舶的設計和部署計劃，資金。我希望我回答了你的問題，羅賓。

Not as specifically as I hoped. Maybe if I could toss one last one in.

沒有我希望的那麼具體。也許如果我能把最後一個扔進去。

Sure. Fire away.

當然。開火。

I don't know if you have any additional thoughts on the potential for Cuba and how you think that could affect -- itineraries you could add it to when you look at your Caribbean mix being 35% or so for your fleet. Just sort of any initial thoughts -- I realize it's quite early.

我不知道您是否對古巴的潛力以及您認為這會如何影響有任何其他想法 - 當您看到您的加勒比海組合為您的船隊提供 35% 左右時，您可以將其添加到行程中。只是一些初步的想法——我意識到這還為時過早。

There's no question the legislative embargo is lifted. Cuba is a tremendous opportunity. There's a lot of pent-up demand to visit Cuba. It would allow us some very fuel-efficient itineraries. Also, just new itineraries for those who love to go to the Caribbean.

毫無疑問，立法禁運已解除。古巴是一個巨大的機會。訪問古巴有很多被壓抑的需求。這將使我們能夠進行一些非常省油的行程。此外，對於那些喜歡去加勒比海的人來說，這只是新的行程。

There's about 11 ports that are able today to accommodate our ships. There are some size restrictions in those, particularly in Havana itself. We have a variety of ships of different sizes that can go to multiple ports. The Havana port specifically has a relatively shallow draft, so they will take some smaller ships. It can't be dredged because of the tunnels that are there -- the tunnel that is there. But there will be investment in ports and other infrastructure required over time. Not sure the legislative embargo be lifted, but we are excited about the prospect for Cuba, and it would definitely create the demand that we need to have the relative scarcity to drive yields.

今天大約有 11 個港口能夠容納我們的船隻。其中有一些尺寸限制，特別是在哈瓦那本身。我們有各種不同大小的船隻，可以前往多個港口。哈瓦那港特別吃水比較淺，所以會坐一些較小的船。它不能被疏浚，因為那裡有隧道——那裡有隧道。但隨著時間的推移，將需要對港口和其他基礎設施進行投資。不確定是否會解除立法禁運，但我們對古巴的前景感到興奮，這肯定會產生我們需要相對稀缺來提高產量的需求。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你。

Lisa Hendrix, Barclays.

麗莎亨德里克斯，巴克萊。

Hi. Felicia Hendrix, and good morning and happy holidays. David, wondering if you could just walk us through how you get to the high end of your earnings guidance range, given the metrics that you give us in the release.

你好。 Felicia Hendrix，早上好，節日快樂。大衛，考慮到您在新聞稿中提供給我們的指標，想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您如何達到收入指導範圍的高端。

We are talking about a range that is $0.30 wide, which is essentially 2 points of yield. And so at the high end of the range from the midpoint, you are probably either talking about a point of additional yield or something less than a point of additional yield in something of slightly less cost. So those are the types of things in terms of the guidance range that we are looking at.

我們談論的範圍是 0.30 美元，基本上是 2 個收益率點。因此，在中點範圍的高端，您可能正在談論額外收益點，或者在成本略低的情況下低於額外收益點的東西。因此，就我們正在研究的指導範圍而言，這些是事物的類型。

Okay. That's helpful. Because when you gave us the yield and the cost, those weren't ranges. But what I'm hearing from you is that implicit in your EPS guidance is some kind of yield and cost range.

好的。這很有幫助。因為當你給我們收益和成本時，這些都不是范圍。但我從你那裡聽到的是，在你的 EPS 指導中隱含的是某種產量和成本範圍。

Yes. And basically the approximately 2% and approximately 3% was the midpoint of the range.

是的。基本上，大約 2% 和大約 3% 是該範圍的中點。

Right. Okay. And then also David, keeping you in the hot seat here, regarding your overall net yield forecast, thank you for the color. You mentioned Australia as being an area of caution given the capacity growth that's there. Just wondering if you could give us more color on your thoughts on what you are seeing and thinking about Europe next year because capacity is growing there. While it's mid-single digits and it's not an onerous number, it is up a lot versus the steep decline in 2014. So are you baking in any kind of conservatism for Europe and then also maybe regarding the economy there, or how are you thinking about that?

正確的。好的。然後還有大衛，讓你在這裡保持熱門，關於你的整體淨產量預測，謝謝你的顏色。鑑於那裡的產能增長，您提到澳大利亞是一個謹慎的地區。只是想知道你是否可以給我們更多關於明年你所看到和思考的歐洲的想法，因為那裡的容量正在增長。雖然它是個位數的中位數，而且不是一個繁重的數字，但與 2014 年的急劇下降相比，它上升了很多。所以，你是否對歐洲抱有任何保守主義態度，然後也可能是關於那裡的經濟，或者你怎麼想關於那個？

Overall, we are looking at yields in Europe to be up. We are looking at it both for the seasonal European program for our North American brands as well as for our BAA brands. So we have positive yields included in the forecast for both, and we feel very good about that. You know, we give you our best guess all the time, and so up approximately 2% is our best guess, given that we are seeing. But remember, wave season is a few weeks away, and we'll have a much better indication of demand when we get into January, February timeframe.

總體而言，我們認為歐洲的收益率將會上升。我們正在為我們的北美品牌和我們的 BAA 品牌尋找季節性歐洲計劃。因此，我們在兩者的預測中都包含了正收益，我們對此感覺非常好。你知道，我們一直給你我們最好的猜測，所以大約 2% 是我們最好的猜測，因為我們正在看到。但請記住，波季還有幾週的時間，當我們進入 1 月、2 月的時間框架時，我們會更好地了解需求。

Perfect. Thank you so much.

完美的。太感謝了。

Steven Kent, Goldman Sachs.

史蒂文肯特，高盛。

Hi. Two questions. Just to follow up on Robin's question on Costa -- and the reason why we're so focused in on it is that it sounded like, Arnold, like you were still in recovery mode for the brand. And that would be a lot longer than I would've thought for the brand to come back. Is Costa now trending more along with the other European brands, or is there still something that unique about it?

你好。兩個問題。只是為了跟進羅賓關於科斯塔的問題——我們如此關注它的原因是，聽起來，阿諾德，就像你仍然處於品牌的恢復模式一樣。這將比我想像的品牌回歸的時間要長得多。哥斯達黎加現在是和其他歐洲品牌一起流行，還是它還有什麼獨特之處？

And then just one other thing, we noticed in the back of the press release there was a restructuring charge of $18 million; trademark and other impairment charges in Q4. I just wanted to know what that was and whether it was related to a specific brand or something like that. Thank you.

還有一件事，我們注意到在新聞稿後面有 1800 萬美元的重組費用；第四季度的商標和其他減值費用。我只是想知道那是什麼以及它是否與特定品牌或類似的東西有關。謝謝你。

I'll answer the second part first. $18 million refers to actions in both the Costa Group and the Holland America Group where we set up reserves as they affect the cross-brand collaboration coordination with a some redundancies where identified, and we set up some reserves to accommodate that. The savings from that are reflected in the guidance in the range that we've given for 2015. And what was the first part of your question again?

我先回答第二部分。 1800 萬美元是指在 Costa Group 和 Holland America Group 中採取的行動，因為它們會影響跨品牌協作協調，並且在確定的一些冗餘情況下會影響跨品牌協作協調，因此我們設置了一些儲備來適應這種情況。從中節省的成本反映在我們為 2015 年提供的範圍內的指導中。您的問題的第一部分又是什麼？

Let me answer. On the loss, Steve, the losses on the ship side sales and ship impairments, what was included in the fourth quarter was relating to the three ships that we talked about that will be leaving the fleet. And that was the $70 million in the fourth quarter. The impairments relate to prior periods which were also included in the table.

讓我回答。史蒂夫，關於損失，船舶銷售和船舶減值的損失，第四季度包括的與我們談到的將離開船隊的三艘船有關。那是第四季度的 7000 萬美元。減值與也包括在表中的前期有關。

Okay.

好的。

And then your first question I think was back on Costa again? Look, the reality is we've moved on, and we are focused on driving yields and containing costs. But as you guys ask the questions about previous points in time and performance, clearly we feel that Costa recovery was impaired by the environment -- the economic environment in Europe. But we had a good year in Costa. We had an excellent improvement in profitability and expect to grow again next year.

然後我認為你的第一個問題又回到了科斯塔？看，現實是我們已經前進，我們專注於提高產量和控製成本。但是當你們問到關於之前的時間點和表現的問題時，顯然我們認為科斯塔的複蘇受到環境的影響——歐洲的經濟環境。但我們在科斯塔度過了美好的一年。我們的盈利能力有了顯著提高，預計明年會再次增長。

But so then, just sticking on it, so what I guess what we are asking is is like Costa, i.e. Cunard, just as European brands, are those three brands all moving together? Or is Costa still not showing the same kind of momentum both to the upside or to the downside as the other?

但是，那麼，堅持下去，所以我想我們要問的是像Costa，即Cunard，就像歐洲品牌一樣，這三個品牌都在一起移動嗎？還是科斯塔仍然沒有表現出與另一個相同的上行或下行勢頭？

No, Europe is not one market. So you have the UK, you have the Baltic, the Mediterranean and so on. The brands source differently in terms of their source markets -- the countries people come from, the weight of all that. So those are all three very different brands. AIDA, the German brand, almost exclusively sourced in the German market, serves Germans almost exclusively. So that brand has done very, very well and continues to do so. The UK is heavily sourced obviously with UK folks, and whatever happens in the UK environment affects them.

不，歐洲不是一個市場。所以你有英國，你有波羅的海，地中海等等。品牌的來源市場不同——人們來自的國家，所有這些的重要性。所以這三個都是非常不同的品牌。德國品牌 AIDA 幾乎完全在德國市場採購，幾乎完全為德國人服務。因此，該品牌做得非常非常好，並將繼續這樣做。顯然，英國大量採購於英國人，英國環境中發生的任何事情都會影響他們。

But Cunard is a global brand -- Cunard sources from the UK, North America, Asia, everywhere. So you are talking about apples, oranges and apricots kind of a thing. So we would not expect them to move in unison because they are -- Europe is not one place. And even those brands don't all source exclusively from Europe.

但Cunard是一個全球品牌——Cunard的貨源來自英國、北美、亞洲，無處不在。所以你說的是蘋果、橙子和杏子之類的東西。所以我們不會指望他們一致行動，因為他們是——歐洲不是一個地方。甚至這些品牌也並非全部來自歐洲。

But Costa is doing well. Cunard is doing well, as is P&O, which we did mention. And AIDA is doing very well.

但科斯塔做得很好。 Cunard 做得很好，我們確實提到了 P&O。 AIDA 做得很好。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。

Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

史蒂夫·維琴斯基，Stifel。

So David, you specifically called out Australia. And I know capacity there is up somewhere between 15% and 20% for the industry next year. But is that something that you are currently seeing right now in terms of pressure? Or is that something you are saying further down the road, you think that could be something that that market could come under pressure?

所以大衛，你特別提到了澳大利亞。我知道明年該行業的產能將增長 15% 到 20% 之間。但就壓力而言，這是您目前所看到的嗎？還是您在以後所說的話，您認為這可能是該市場可能面臨壓力的事情？

I wasn't talking about pressure. You know, Australia has seen double-digit capacity increases; it's absorbed it very well. All I was trying to do is I was indicating that all the different programs were going to be up next year, including the Caribbean. But I was just cautioning you that Australia may not be up as much the some of the others because of the larger capacity increase in that market.

我不是在談論壓力。你知道，澳大利亞的產能增長了兩位數；它吸收得很好。我試圖做的只是表明所有不同的項目都將在明年推出，包括加勒比地區。但我只是提醒您，由於該市場的容量增加較大，澳大利亞可能不會像其他一些國家那樣上漲。

Okay. Got you. And then second question, it's a question we get a lot from investors. But, given where oil is today -- and I know you guys have never hedged in the past and you have your fuel insurance out there, but is there any discussion going on at this point in terms of doing something more to the extreme in terms of basically trying to lock in more fuel at today's prices?

好的。得到你。然後是第二個問題，這是我們從投資者那裡得到的很多問題。但是，考慮到今天的石油——我知道你們過去從未對沖過，而且你們有燃料保險，但在這一點上是否有任何討論在做一些更極端的事情基本上試圖以今天的價格鎖定更多的燃料？

Our practice has been to use collars to mitigate against spikes in the prices, and that will be our practice going forward.

我們的做法是使用項圈來緩解價格飆升，這將是我們今後的做法。

Okay. And David, can I ask one housekeeping question? Do you have the capacity increases for all of Carnival by quarter?

好的。大衛，我可以問一個家政問題嗎？您是否按季度增加了所有嘉年華的容量？

We do.

我們的確是。

For first quarter, we are up 2.5%. Second quarter is up 3%. Third quarter is up 1.3%. Fourth quarter is up 4% for a total of 2.7 on the year.

第一季度，我們上漲了 2.5%。第二季度上漲了 3%。第三季度上漲 1.3%。第四季度同比增長 4%，總計 2.7。

Okay. Thanks, guys. Happy holidays.

好的。多謝你們。節日快樂。

That sounds a little high. We may not have all those ship sales.

這聽起來有點高。我們可能沒有所有這些船舶銷售。

Let me just double check the number (multiple speakers).

讓我仔細檢查一下號碼（多個發言者）。

I think that number is a little high. We'll get the right number back to you. Beth will give it to you.

我覺得這個數字有點高。我們會將正確的電話號碼回复給您。貝絲會給你的。

Go on to the next question. I'll go back to that.

繼續下一個問題。我會回到那個。

Harry Curtis, Nomura.

哈里·柯蒂斯，野村。

Going back to that last question, Arnold, you mentioned that your practice is to use collars. That's not been set in stone for a long period of time. And you've seen an unprecedented move in the price of crude. And just the lift in crude between sort of 2006 and 2012 devastated the Company's return on invested capital. So I'm just wondering, you sound committed to the collars, but is there any flexibility to moving to hedges because if we do see a move back in crude, it's going to have a negative impact on your strategy of lifting your return on invested capital.

回到最後一個問題，阿諾德，你提到你的做法是使用項圈。這在很長一段時間內都不是一成不變的。你已經看到原油價格出現了前所未有的變化。僅 2006 年至 2012 年間原油價格的上漲就摧毀了公司的投資資本回報率。所以我只是想知道，你聽起來很堅定，但是轉向對沖是否有任何靈活性，因為如果我們確實看到原油價格回升，這將對你提高投資回報率的策略產生負面影響首都。

Well, first of all, with regards to return on invested capital, our plans has always been we weren't counting on fuel to drop. We don't know what fuel is going to do in the future. So we need to get double-digit return on invested capital regardless. Now, clearly, if fuel continues where it is or drops further, that will accelerate the timeline to get to the double-digit return on invested capital. But we need to get there regardless. So that's number one.

嗯，首先，關於投資資本的回報，我們的計劃一直是我們不指望燃料下降。我們不知道未來燃料會做什麼。因此，無論如何，我們都需要獲得兩位數的投資資本回報。現在，顯然，如果燃料繼續保持原狀或進一步下降，這將加快實現兩位數投資資本回報率的時間表。但無論如何，我們都需要到達那裡。所以這是第一名。

And number two is that we are protecting against spikes. We want to protect against the downside. And there's all kinds of debates around hedging and any costs relating to hedge. And you have to decide whether it is worth it. In our case, right now we didn't hedge, and so we've been able to benefit in the recent drops in fuel prices that we had hedged before this we wouldn't be enjoying quite as much benefit as we are today.

第二是我們正在防止尖峰。我們想防範不利因素。並且圍繞對沖以及與對沖相關的任何成本存在各種爭論。你必須決定它是否值得。在我們的案例中，現在我們沒有對沖，因此我們能夠從最近的燃油價格下跌中受益，而在此之前我們已經對沖，我們不會像今天那樣享受這麼多的好處。

Right. But I'm just wondering if there is some flexibility at the Board level on changing your strategy.

正確的。但我只是想知道董事會層面是否有一些靈活性來改變你的策略。

We'll review it consistently. Our current recommendation is to maintain the collar practice that we have, but I'm sure that will be a conversation going forward.

我們會持續審查它。我們目前的建議是保持我們現有的衣領做法，但我相信這將是一個未來的對話。

Okay. And just my other question is, can you give me a sense of the actual drydock days that are budgeted for 2015 and how that's different from 2014? What I'm trying to get at is when you think of how many ships in your fleet you really need to touch, whether it's scrubber technology or vessel enhancement, is the implication that really by the end of 2015 all of that incremental investment and drydock days will be done by the end of 2015?

好的。我的另一個問題是，您能否告訴我為 2015 年預算的實際幹船塢天數以及與 2014 年有何不同？我想了解的是，當你想到你的船隊中有多少艘船你真正需要接觸時，無論是洗滌器技術還是船舶改進，這意味著到 2015 年底所有增量投資和乾船塢天將在2015年底完成？

I think the way to look at it is first of all we've got about 550 drydock days planned for 2015. That's a 50% increase over what occurred in 2014. There is no normal for drydock days. But if you want a number on average to think about over time, that would average out it's probably in the 400- to 450-day type of range.

我認為看待它的方式首先是我們為 2015 年計劃了大約 550 個乾船塢日。這比 2014 年增加了 50%。幹船塢天數不正常。但是，如果您希望隨時間推移平均考慮一個數字，那麼平均起來可能在 400 到 450 天的範圍內。

In terms of the technologies, the fuel consumption-saving technologies as well as the exhaust cleaning systems, that's peaking for certain this year in 2015. A lot of that will be done by 2016, and we should be pretty much done with that completely by 2017. But there will be a major tailwind for 2016 from the reduced number of drydock days in 2016 compared to 2015.

技術方面，節油技術以及尾氣淨化系統，2015 年肯定會在今年達到頂峰。到 2016 年將完成很多工作，我們應該在 2016 年完全完成2017 年。但與 2015 年相比，2016 年干船塢天數的減少將給 2016 年帶來重大利好。

So you would expect it to go back down to that average of 400 to 450, perhaps?

因此，您可能會期望它回到 400 到 450 的平均值？

Yes, it would be in that range. We have to plan because there's also other enhancements that we may put on board to drive revenue and so on. But directionally, absolutely.

是的，它會在那個範圍內。我們必須計劃，因為我們還可能會採取其他增強措施來推動收入等等。但在方向上，絕對。

I'm going to correct the capacity growth from earlier. The latest figures taking into account all of the ship sales for next year are 1.7% in the first quarter, 2.3% in the second, 0.6% in the third quarter, 3.3% in the fourth quarter for a total of 2% flat on the year.

我將更正之前的容量增長。考慮到明年所有船舶銷售的最新數據，第一季度為 1.7%，第二季度為 2.3%，第三季度為 0.6%，第四季度為 3.3%，總計持平 2%年。

Okay. That does it for me. Thanks, guys.

好的。這對我有用。多謝你們。

Jaime Katz, Morningstar.

傑米·卡茨，晨星。

Could you talk a little bit about how the marketing strategy has evolved in China as you guys have learned more about the consumer there and how you are better targeting consumer based on the region?

隨著你們對中國消費者的了解越來越多，你們能否談談中國的營銷策略是如何演變的，以及你們如何更好地針對該地區的消費者進行定位？

Yes. Well, first of all, it continues to evolve, obviously. The reality is there is pent-up demand. What we've got done is based on the experience of Costa, which has been there since 2006, we've gone with Italy's Finest as the theme for the Costa brand, and that's marketed through the various distributors in China who market directly to the Chinese public as well as there is general marketing effort through the Internet and through TV.

是的。嗯，首先，它顯然在繼續發展。現實是存在被壓抑的需求。我們所做的是基於Costa的經驗，從2006年就開始了，我們以意大利的Finest作為Costa品牌的主題，通過在中國的各個經銷商直接營銷中國公眾以及通過互聯網和電視進行的一般營銷活動。

On the Princess side of things, there we are offering international experience from an American type perspective. We've catered a number of the features on the ships to the Chinese consuming public. But we are all fortunate, whether it's ourselves or others in the industry that are participating in that market. It's a very large market. There is pent-up demand, and we are continuing to learn to perfect both the guest experience onboard as well is how to reach out to the Chinese public that is eligible for cruising.

在公主方面，我們從美國式的角度提供國際經驗。我們已經為中國消費者提供了船上的一些功能。但我們都很幸運，無論是我們自己還是業內其他人都參與了這個市場。這是一個非常大的市場。有被壓抑的需求，我們正在繼續學習完善船上的客人體驗以及如何接觸有資格進行巡航的中國公眾。

And then do you guys just have a forward CapEx estimate so we can think about how those new ships might impact spend?

然後你們是否有一個前瞻性的資本支出估計，以便我們可以考慮這些新船可能如何影響支出？

Sure. We are looking at $3 billion, and this includes new build as well for 2015 and a little bit higher, probably about $3.3 billion, for 2016, and roughly $2 billion for 2017.

當然。我們正在考慮 30 億美元，其中包括 2015 年的新建項目，以及更高的一點，2016 年可能約為 33 億美元，2017 年約為 20 億美元。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Richard Carter, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的理查德·卡特。

Is it possible to just give us a flavor of thinking about the vessel enhancements you've done so far on Carnival cruise lines? What sort of impact you see in terms of revenues post the enhancements versus pre the enhancements. And then second (multiple speakers) -- second question, just on the pent-up demand in Asia there's obviously a lot of capacity coming into Asia forecast over the next few years. So do you see any risk at all in terms of yield growth coming on to pressure, or do you think the demand far outweighs the supply?

是否可以讓我們思考一下您迄今為止在嘉年華郵輪公司所做的船隻改進？增強後與增強前相比，您在收入方面看到了什麼樣的影響。然後是第二個（多位發言者）——第二個問題，就亞洲被壓抑的需求而言，顯然未來幾年亞洲將有大量產能進入。那麼，就產量增長面臨壓力而言，您是否認為存在任何風險，或者您認為需求遠大於供應？

First of all, concerning a function of 2.0 enhancements for Carnival, there's no question that it contributed with one of the contributors to the strong performance of our Carnival brand this year and the overall lift in the profitability in that brand that we saw. It also shows in guest satisfaction scores onboard, and it certainly helped to further invigorate that brand and keep it very relevant for the guests and resonate in a powerful way. And it positions us well going into next year.

首先，關於嘉年華 2.0 增強的功能，毫無疑問，它與我們嘉年華品牌今年的強勁表現以及我們看到的該品牌盈利能力的整體提升做出了貢獻。它還顯示在船上的客人滿意度得分中，這無疑有助於進一步激發該品牌的活力，使其與客人密切相關，並以強大的方式引起共鳴。它使我們很好地進入明年。

With regard to China, your question again?

關於中國，你的問題又來了？

I'm just wondering about -- there's obviously you talked about there is a lot of pent-up demand, but there's also a lot of capacity of more major lines going in (multiple speakers).

我只是想知道 - 顯然你談到有很多被壓抑的需求，但也有更多主要線路的容量（多個揚聲器）。

Right now we are seeing yield improvements. But over time, depending on how things evolve, there could be periods of out-of-sync capacity introductions to demand. But right now for 2015, where we have line of sight, demand is strong, and we are anticipating yield improvement and continued progress.

現在我們看到了產量的提高。但隨著時間的推移，根據事情的發展，可能會出現一段時間不同步的容量引入需求。但就 2015 年而言，我們可以預見，需求強勁，我們預計產量會提高並繼續取得進展。

Can you try and quantify a little bit in terms of onboard spend, since those changes on the vessels that have had the enhancement investment? Is there any way of just giving us a flavor (multiple speakers)?

您是否可以嘗試在船上支出方面進行一些量化，因為對已進行增強投資的船舶進行了這些更改？有什麼方法可以給我們一種味道（多個揚聲器）？

Onboard spend in terms of Carnival, do you mean?

嘉年華的船上消費，你的意思是？

Yes, post the investments in Carnival Cruise Lines.

是的，發布嘉年華郵輪公司的投資。

Again, it's a little more complicated than that. It's not just a function of 2.0 investment that would drive onboard revenues. But onboard revenue lift was strong, as we indicated -- 5% in the fourth quarter. We don't see that as an ongoing run rate of improvement, but we certainly see strong improvement and have that in our plans in the guidance we had giving you going forward. Some of that comes from not so much a Funship 2.0 but some different things we've done and we've learned through the brand collaboration coordination on casino and other things. Clearly, some of it does come directly from the Funship 2.0 enhancements.

同樣，它比這更複雜一些。推動船上收入的不僅僅是 2.0 投資的一項功能。但正如我們所指出的，船上收入增長強勁——第四季度增長了 5%。我們不認為這是持續的改進速度，但我們肯定看到了強勁的改進，並且在我們為您提供的指導計劃中已經有了這一點。其中一些不是來自Funship 2.0，而是來自我們所做的一些不同的事情，我們通過賭場和其他事情的品牌協作協調學到了一些東西。顯然，其中一些確實直接來自 Funship 2.0 增強功能。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Tim Conder, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國銀行證券的蒂姆·康德。

A couple here -- just returning to the several questions you've had on Costa, you said that Costa is improving. I think maybe if you could give some color, it would be greatly appreciated I think for everyone. If you strip out China, which obviously you are using Princess and Costa in China and led by Costa, how is Costa doing ex-China is maybe the question I'd like to drill in on.

這裡有一對夫婦——回到你對科斯塔的幾個問題，你說科斯塔正在進步。我想也許如果你能給一些顏色，我想每個人都會非常感激。如果你去掉中國，顯然你在中國使用公主和歌詩達，並由歌詩達領導，歌詩達在中國以外的表現如何可能是我想深入探討的問題。

And then looking at the FX going forward, can you give us a little color, how much is US dollar? And then the major other currencies -- the euro, pound, and Aussie on a revenue and EBIT basis looking to 2015?

再看看未來的外匯，能不能給我們一點顏色，美元是多少？然後其他主要貨幣——歐元、英鎊和澳元，在收入和息稅前利潤的基礎上展望 2015 年？

Okay. With regard to Costa in China and then the European (inaudible), Costa is doing very well. But obviously as you move ships south, you've got less capacity in Europe. But in terms of capacity that's there, it's not just higher performing. We just don't give details by brand. But the reality is Costa has had a very nice recovery in Europe and has had a strong performance in Asia. I'll let David answer your exchange question.

好的。關於 Costa 在中國和歐洲（聽不清），Costa 做得很好。但很明顯，當你將船隻向南移動時，你在歐洲的運力就會減少。但就現有的容量而言，它不僅僅是更高的性能。我們只是不按品牌提供詳細信息。但現實情況是，科斯塔在歐洲的複蘇非常好，在亞洲的表現也很強勁。我會讓大衛回答你的交換問題。

As far as the various currencies, if you look at our revenue, roughly speaking 50% is in US dollars. Something around a quarter of our revenue is the euros. GBP is probably 12%, Aussie dollar, 10%. And then everything else is just a few percentage -- should add up to the total. Tim, I don't have the EBITDA by currency, but you can always call Beth and she can give you some more detail after the call.

至於各種貨幣，如果你看我們的收入，大概50%是美元。我們大約四分之一的收入是歐元。英鎊大概是 12%，澳元大概是 10%。然後其他一切都只是幾個百分比 - 應該加起來。蒂姆，我沒有按貨幣計算的 EBITDA，但您可以隨時致電 Beth，她會在電話結束後為您提供更多詳細信息。

Okay, great. And then one last one, David, for you -- on FX and the net cruise cost, you indicated that still you are looking at cost to be up roughly 3% with all the vessel enhancements, drydocks, scrubbers and everything. That's the guidance that you guys gave 90 days ago. And with some of your cost denominated in foreign currencies, we would expect that to come down. Or, again, not to lead the question here, but are we talking -- is that within the approximate 3%? And you said 3% is a midpoint range. Or have you all decided for 2015 to maybe spend a little bit more on the Super Bowl ad or something else?

好，太棒了。然後最後一位，大衛，為你——關於外彙和淨巡航成本，你表示你仍然認為成本會增加大約 3%，包括所有的船舶改進、幹船塢、洗滌器和一切。那是你們90天前給的指導。由於您的一些成本以外幣計價，我們預計該成本會下降。或者，再次，不是在這裡引導問題，而是我們在談論 - 是在大約 3% 以內嗎？你說 3% 是一個中點範圍。或者你們都決定在 2015 年在超級碗廣告或其他方面多花一點錢嗎？

Let me make a quick comment before David answers. First of all, we have made progress against that 3%. We lost some of that progress when we sold the ship. We got net positive from the sale of the ship, but the reality is that it was a drag on the cost side. And I'll let David add.

在大衛回答之前，讓我做一個簡短的評論。首先，我們在這 3% 方面取得了進展。當我們賣掉這艘船時，我們失去了一些進步。我們從這艘船的出售中獲得了淨收益，但現實是這拖累了成本。我會讓大衛補充。

There were a lot of changes between September and today, as Arnold indicated. And believe it or not, the seal of the Costa Celebration had an impact on .3 -- on the overall cost on a per-ALBD basis. So that offset the total dollars, and the savings flowed to the bottom line. But on a per-ALBD calculation, we had less ALBDs, which made the percentage go up -- back up to 3%.

正如阿諾德所說，從 9 月到今天，發生了很多變化。不管你信不信，Costa Celebration 的印章對 0.3 產生了影響——以每個 ALBD 為基礎的總成本。這樣就抵消了總美元，節省的資金流向了底線。但是在每個 ALBD 計算中，我們的 ALBD 較少，這使得百分比上升 - 回升至 3%。

Okay. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

好的。非常感謝。欣賞它。

Assia Georgieva, Infinity Research.

Assia Georgieva，無限研究。

I had one quick question on the Carnival brand. We've seen the recovery in the second half of the year. A lot of that was onboard. And I think, Arnold, you mentioned that we shouldn't be counting on it to continue indefinitely. Were there any other specific initiatives, or was it more demand and market related?

我對嘉年華品牌有一個簡短的問題。我們已經看到了下半年的複蘇。其中很多都在船上。我認為，阿諾德，你提到我們不應該指望它無限期地繼續下去。是否有任何其他具體舉措，還是與需求和市場相關？

Okay. First of all, in terms of the onboard, we do expect it to continue. I just don't want you guys locked in on 5% run rate. We'll work hard do that and better, but we are not forecasting that kind of a run rate going forward. We absolutely expect it to do better going forward and the improvement is included in the plan. In terms of overall, though, Carnival is on a very good track, and we are very pleased with it. I do want to answer your question specifically, though, so if you want to restate part of it, I will.

好的。首先，就板載而言，我們確實希望它繼續下去。我只是不希望你們鎖定在 5% 的運行率上。我們會努力做到這一點並且做得更好，但我們並沒有預測未來的那種運行速度。我們絕對希望它在未來做得更好，並且改進包含在計劃中。不過，總體而言，嘉年華的發展勢頭非常好，我們對此感到非常滿意。不過，我確實想具體回答你的問題，所以如果你想重述其中的一部分，我會的。

I guess my question is whether market-wide demand has improved in the back half of the year. Or was it something that relates more specifically to the efforts you had made at this brand?

我想我的問題是下半年市場需求是否有所改善。還是與您在該品牌所做的努力更具體相關？

Well, it's a combination of two. If you are asking industry demand, certainly, because there was so much capacity in the Caribbean overall, the industry saw more people failing. And therefore, by definition, there was increased demand. Our ticket yield was up in that period, and we are forecasting it to be up certainly in the second and third and fourth quarters next year, helped by the fact that there will be significant capacity reduction late in the second quarter going into the third quarter. But also helped by the performance of the brand itself and then the overall efforts we have underway to create demand.

嗯，這是兩者的結合。如果你問的是行業需求，當然，因為整個加勒比地區的產能如此之大，該行業看到更多的人失敗了。因此，根據定義，需求增加了。在此期間，我們的票價有所上升，我們預計明年第二、第三和第四季度肯定會上升，這得益於第二季度末到第三季度的運力大幅減少。 .但也得益於品牌本身的表現以及我們為創造需求所做的整體努力。

Thank you, Arnold. That was helpful. Thank you.

謝謝你，阿諾德。那很有幫助。謝謝你。

Edward Stanford, Lazarus.

愛德華·斯坦福，拉撒路。

Just a quick question, please, on the impact of the additional fuel costs relating to ECA. Has that guidance changed at all since you last surveyed the market, or is it the same as it was before? Thank you.

請簡單問一下與 ECA 相關的額外燃料成本的影響。自您上次調查市場以來，該指導是否發生了變化，還是與以前一樣？謝謝你。

The guidance is the same. We mitigated what would have been a $0.35 a share impact down to $0.10 for next year. Over time, that will disappear. That will be reduced in 2016 and all but gone in 2017.

指導是一樣的。我們將明年每股 0.35 美元的影響降低至 0.10 美元。隨著時間的推移，它會消失。這將在 2016 年減少，並在 2017 年幾乎消失。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Stuart Gordon, Berenberg.

斯圖爾特·戈登，貝倫貝格。

Two questions, please? The first one is you spoke earlier about you are not wanting us to forecast onboard going growing at the same pace as it has done. Could you give us a bit of color on what kind of difference it would make to your guidance if it did? And the second question is on the returns, obviously, we've seen the improvement this year. You are guiding for a 1% improvement in 2015. But it appears if we take what you said at the third quarter that without the change to fuel, actually returns into 2015 would have gone down. Was that your thinking at the third quarter, or has your outlook core 2015 tempered slightly since?

請問兩個問題？第一個是您之前談到您不希望我們預測船上的增長速度與現在相同。你能否給我們一點顏色，如果它這樣做會對你的指導產生什麼樣的影響？第二個問題是關於回報的，顯然，我們今年已經看到了進步。您正在指導 2015 年提高 1%。但是，如果我們按照您在第三季度所說的話，如果不改變燃料，實際上到 2015 年的回報率會下降。這是您在第三季度的想法，還是您對 2015 年核心展望的看法自那以後略有緩和？

Okay. First of all, I hope that is really a test because you are still on the phone with us.

好的。首先，我希望這真的是一個考驗，因為你還在和我們通電話。

That is still a test.

那仍然是一個考驗。

That's number one. But the second part -- David, go ahead.

那是第一名。但是第二部分——大衛，繼續。

Well, as far as the onboard is concerned, every percentage point increase in onboard revenue yield is worth about $0.04 in 2015. So we were forecasting something in the range or including in our guidance of 2%. If it turns out to be 3%, then you get a pickup of $0.04.

好吧，就船上而言，2015 年船上收入收益率每增加一個百分點，價值約為 0.04 美元。所以我們預測的範圍內或包括我們 2% 的指導。如果結果是 3%，那麼您將獲得 0.04 美元的提貨。

And as far as the return on invested capital is concerned, overall if you looked at the full-year increase on the midpoint versus 2015, the midpoint of $2.45, you are talking about a $0.49 or a $0.50 increase overall. Fuel and currency, net of both the transactional and translational impacts, was about a $0.41 increase. So we did have some operational increase, and that's the result of the 2% yield offset by the 3% cost. So there was other increases putting aside the operational increase, which would have drove return on invested capital up.

就投資資本回報率而言，總體而言，如果您查看中點與 2015 年的全年增長（中點 2.45 美元），您所說的總體增長為 0.49 美元或 0.50 美元。扣除交易和轉化影響後，燃料和貨幣增加了約 0.41 美元。所以我們確實有一些運營增加，這是 2% 的收益率被 3% 的成本所抵消的結果。因此，除了運營增長之外，還有其他增長，這將推動投資資本回報率上升。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions) And there are no questions at this time. I will turn the call back to you, sir.

（操作員說明）目前沒有任何問題。先生，我會把電話轉給你。

Okay. Everyone, thank you very much. Happy holidays. We are clearly excited about what we have going on here, and we look forward to seeing you throughout the new year.

好的。大家，非常感謝。節日快樂。我們顯然對我們在這裡所做的一切感到興奮，我們期待在新的一年與您見面。

Happy holidays. Take a look at the commercials.

節日快樂。看看廣告。

Yes. Take a look at worldleadingcruiselines.com and look at the spot and get ready for the Super Bowl. Thanks.

是的。看看 worldleadingcruiselines.com，看看現場，為超級碗做好準備。謝謝。

Happy holidays.

節日快樂。

Take care.

小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開您的線路。