嘉年華遊輪 (CCL) 2013 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the fourth quarter 2013 earnings call.

歡迎參加 2013 年第四季度財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Thursday, December 19, 2013.

謹此提醒，本次會議的錄製時間為 2013 年 12 月 19 日星期四。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Arnold Donald, President and CEO.

現在我想將會議交給總裁兼首席執行官阿諾·唐納德 (Arnold Donald)。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Kelly, and good morning.

謝謝你，凱利，早上好。

Thank you for joining us today, and a sincere happy holidays to everyone.

感謝您今天加入我們，祝大家節日快樂。

With me today is our Chairman, Micky Arison; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; our Vice President of Investor Relations, Beth Roberts.

今天和我在一起的是我們的主席米基·阿里森 (Micky Arison)；我們的首席財務官大衛·伯恩斯坦；我們的投資者關係副總裁貝絲·羅伯茨 (Beth Roberts)。

And as Kelly pointed out, I am Arnold Donald, President and Chief Executive Officer of Carnival Corporation and PLC.

正如凱利指出的，我是阿諾德·唐納德，嘉年華公司和 PLC 的總裁兼首席執行官。

We will begin with David Bernstein for a review of our financial performance and outlook, and then I will share some prepared remarks before we open it up for the Q&A session.

我們將首先由大衛·伯恩斯坦回顧我們的財務業績和前景，然後我將在問答環節開始之前分享一些準備好的評論。

David?

大衛？

Thank you, Arnold.

謝謝你，阿諾德。

Before I begin, please note that I must -- that some of our comments on this call will be forward-looking.

在開始之前，請注意，我必須——我們對這次電話會議的一些評論將是前瞻性的。

I must refer you to the cautionary statements in today's press release.

我必須請您參閱今天新聞稿中的警告聲明。

Also all of my references to revenue and cost metrics will be in local currency, as this is a much more meaningful measure of business trends.

此外，我對收入和成本指標的所有引用都將以當地貨幣為單位，因為這是衡量業務趨勢的更有意義的指標。

What I am going to do, is start by walking you through the third quarter of 2013.

我將首先向您介紹 2013 年第三季度。

I will then recap the full-year 2013, give you some insight on the current booking trends, and then talk about the guidance for 2014.

然後我將回顧一下2013年全年，給大家一些關於當前預訂趨勢的見解，然後談談2014年的指導。

As part of the guidance, I will give you some explanation on how we reduced the 2014 cost increase from what we said on the previous conference call.

作為指導的一部分，我將向您解釋我們如何減少 2014 年成本增長（與我們在上次電話會議上所說的相比）。

For the fourth quarter, our non-GAAP EPS was $0.04.

第四季度，我們的非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.04 美元。

The fourth quarter came in $0.04 above the midpoint of our September guidance.

第四季度的價格比我們 9 月份指導值的中點高出 0.04 美元。

This was driven by better than expected revenue yields for both net ticket and net onboards.

這是由於淨票務和淨船上收入收益率均好於預期所致。

This occurred mainly at Carnival Cruise Lines and was worth $0.05 a share.

這主要發生在嘉年華遊輪公司，每股價值 0.05 美元。

We also had lower fuel prices and favorable FX rates which was worth $0.02 a share.

我們還擁有較低的燃油價格和優惠的匯率，每股價值 0.02 美元。

All of this favorability was partially offset by the 3% -- the $0.03 of higher costs.

所有這些優惠都被 3%（即 0.03 美元）的較高成本所部分抵消。

Now let's look at the fourth quarter operating results versus the prior year.

現在讓我們看看第四季度的運營業績與去年同期相比。

Our capacity increased 3%.

我們的產能增加了 3%。

Our total net revenue yields in the fourth quarter declined 2%.

我們第四季度的總淨收入收益率下降了 2%。

I will break apart for you the two components of total net revenue yields, net ticket yields and net onboard and others.

我將為您分解總淨收入收益率、淨門票收益率和淨船上收益率和其他方面的兩個組成部分。

First net ticket yields.

第一淨票收益率。

Our net ticket yields declined 3%, and this was driven by the North American brands that were down 6% due to promotional pricing at Carnival Cruise Lines and lower yields at the premium brands.

我們的淨門票收益率下降了 3%，這是由於北美品牌由於嘉年華遊輪公司的促銷定價和高端品牌收益率下降而下降了 6%。

Our EAA brands were up almost 2%, driven by increases at Costa that were partially offset by declines in our other European brands.

我們的 EAA 品牌上漲了近 2%，這主要得益於 Costa 的增長，但我們其他歐洲品牌的下降部分抵消了這一增長。

Net onboard and other yields increased just over 1%.

淨船上收益率和其他收益率增長略高於 1%。

Our EAA brands experienced an almost 2% increase that was tempered by flat yields at our North American brand.

我們的 EAA 品牌增長了近 2%，但受到北美品牌產量持平的影響。

However, our North American brand did show a nice improvement from the third quarter.

然而，我們的北美品牌確實比第三季度有了不錯的改善。

On the cost side, net cruise costs per available lower berth day excluding fuel were up 6.5% versus the prior year, and this was driven by vessel enhancements and higher advertising expense, as we invested to accelerate our recovery.

在成本方面，每個可用下泊位日的淨遊輪成本（不包括燃油）比上年增長了 6.5%，這是由於船舶改進和更高的廣告費用推動的，因為我們投資了加速復蘇。

This increase was a bit more than we expected in our September guidance, but that was mostly due to the timing of certain expenses between the fourth quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014.

這一增長略高於我們在 9 月份指導中的預期，但這主要是由於某些費用發生在 2013 年第四季度和 2014 年第一季度之間。

In summary, the fourth quarter non-GAAP EPS was $0.10 lower than last year.

總之，第四季度非 GAAP 每股收益比去年低 0.10 美元。

It was driven by lower net ticket yields and higher net cruise costs without fuel, partially offset by improved fuel consumption and lower fuel price.

這是由於淨機票收益率較低和無燃油淨遊輪成本較高所致，但部分被燃油消耗改善和燃油價格下降所抵消。

Recapping the full year 2013, this past year was impacted by voyage disruptions at Carnival Cruise Lines, and as a result the earnings for 2013 were down.

回顧2013年全年，去年受到嘉年華郵輪公司航行中斷的影響，導致2013年盈利下降。

Our non-GAAP EPS was $1.58 versus $1.94 for the prior year.

我們的非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.58 美元，上一年為 1.94 美元。

The decrease was driven by a number of things, lower net revenue yields costing $0.42, and higher net cruise costs without fuel which cost us $0.40.

造成這一下降的原因有很多：淨收益收益率下降，成本為 0.42 美元；不含燃料的淨遊輪成本上升，成本為 0.40 美元。

However, both of these were partially offset by lower fuel consumption per ALBD of 5.3% which was worth $0.17.

然而，這兩個因素都被每 ALBD 油耗降低 5.3%（價值 0.17 美元）所部分抵消。

Lower fuel prices were $0.14, and everything else together was about $0.15.

較低的燃油價格為 0.14 美元，其他價格合計約為 0.15 美元。

For 2013, our total net revenue yields were down 2.6%.

2013 年，我們的總淨收入收益率下降了 2.6%。

The North American brands were down 3%, and again this was driven by promotional pricing at Carnival Cruise Lines.

北美品牌下跌 3%，這也是由嘉年華遊輪公司的促銷價格推動的。

However, I will say we were very pleased that the surveys show a significant recovery in the brand perception at Carnival Cruise Lines since the voyage disruptions.

然而，我想說的是，我們非常高興調查顯示，自航行中斷以來，嘉年華郵輪公司的品牌認知度顯著恢復。

We benefited from this in the fourth quarter and we expect to benefit from it going forward.

我們在第四季度從中受益，並且預計未來也將受益。

In addition, at Costa the surveys were also very encouraging.

此外，Costa 的調查也非常令人鼓舞。

They showed an improvement in brand perception, and that led to a 4% yield increase from the prior year.

他們的品牌認知度有所改善，產量比上一年增加了 4%。

Although Costa had a nice yield recovery it was more than offset by our other European brands, and that resulted in about a 2% decline in yields for our EAA brands.

儘管 Costa 的產量恢復良好，但被我們其他歐洲品牌所抵消，這導致我們的 EAA 品牌的產量下降了約 2%。

On the cost side, our 4.6% increase in net cruise costs excluding fuel was driven by a number of factors, voyage disruptions and related repair costs, higher advertising spend, our investment in new market development initiatives in Japan, China and Australia, the vessel enhancement expenses, higher insurance premiums, and lastly a charge from a closed pension plan for certain British offices.

在成本方面，我們的淨郵輪成本（不包括燃油）增長了4.6%，這是由多種因素推動的：航行中斷和相關維修成本、廣告支出增加、我們在日本、中國和澳大利亞的新市場開發計劃的投資、船舶增強費用、更高的保險費，最後是某些英國辦事處的封閉式養老金計劃的費用。

Turning to our cash flows for 2013, the cash provided by operations was $2.8 billion, and our CapEx net of asset sales were $2.1 billion, which left us almost $800 million of free cash flow that was returned to shareholders via the regular quarterly dividend.

談到2013 年的現金流，運營提供的現金為28 億美元，扣除資產銷售後的資本支出為21 億美元，這為我們留下了近8 億美元的自由現金流，這些現金流通過定期季度股息返還給股東。

Looking forward to 2014, given our expectations for lower yields in the first half of 2013, which includes the down 3% to 4% for the first quarter, and despite an improving trend, positive yields in the back half of 2014, and improving brand perceptions for both Carnival Cruise Lines and Costa, we are expecting the yields for the year to be down slightly.

展望2014年，鑑於我們對2013年上半年收益率的預期較低，其中包括第一季度下降3%至4%，儘管趨勢有所改善，但2014年下半年的正收益率以及品牌改善對於嘉年華郵輪公司和歌詩達郵輪公司的看法，我們預計今年的收益率將略有下降。

However, keep in mind that it is early, weight season is still a few weeks away, there is a large capacity increase in the Caribbean starting in the second quarter, and also we still face ongoing challenging economic environments in southern Europe.

然而，請記住，現在還為時尚早，距離重量季節還有幾週的時間，從第二季度開始，加勒比地區的運力大幅增加，而且我們仍然面臨著南歐持續充滿挑戰的經濟環境。

Turning to recent booking trends, for the first half of 2014, fleetwide volumes during the last 13 weeks have been running well ahead of the prior year, outpacing capacity at prices that are lower.

談到最近的預訂趨勢，2014 年上半年，過去 13 週內船隊的預訂量一直遠遠領先於去年，以較低的價格超過了運力。

Despite the recent high volumes, the cumulative bookings for the first half on a fleetwide basis are still behind at lower prices.

儘管最近銷量很高，但上半年整個機隊的累計預訂量仍然落後於較低的價格。

As a result of the booking trends, we are expecting lower yields in the first half.

由於預訂趨勢，我們預計上半年收益率較低。

Our North American brands are impacted by challenging comps from the first half of last year, as they were booked prior to the voyage disruptions that occurred in February.

我們的北美品牌受到去年上半年充滿挑戰的競爭的影響，因為它們是在二月份發生的航程中斷之前預訂的。

Our EAA brands face ongoing economic environment challenges in southern Europe, the loss of the attractive Red Sea program, and a close in booking curve that is impacting the first half.

我們的 EAA 品牌面臨南歐持續的經濟環境挑戰、有吸引力的紅海計劃的喪失以及影響上半年的預訂曲線關閉。

For the third quarter, which by the way is still in the early stages of development, the cumulative fleetwide booking status is that occupancies are similar to last year, while pricing is flat.

順便說一句，第三季度仍處於發展的早期階段，整個機隊的累計預訂狀況是，入住率與去年相似，而價格持平。

While our expectation for this quarter are tempered by the large capacity increase in the Caribbean, with a solid cumulative booking status, better booking pattern, and the first-half ramped up advertising efforts, we are expecting positive yields in the third quarter.

雖然我們對本季度的預期受到加勒比地區運力大幅增長、穩定的累積預訂狀況、更好的預訂模式以及上半年加大的廣告力度的影響，但我們預計第三季度將實現正收益。

That is why we are forecasting an improving trend as we move from the first to the second quarter, and then to the back half of the year.

這就是為什麼我們預測從第一季度到第二季度，再到今年下半年，趨勢會有所改善。

Looking at our booking pattern by program, for each of our two segments, for our North American brands, I will walk you through the Caribbean, Alaska, and the seasonal European programs.

按計劃查看我們的預訂模式，對於我們的兩個細分市場，對於我們的北美品牌，我將帶您了解加勒比海、阿拉斯加和季節性歐洲計劃。

The Caribbean is behind on both price and occupancy, and this represents 60% of the first-half, and over 40% of the third quarter capacity for the North American brands.

加勒比地區在價格和入住率方面均落後，佔北美品牌上半年運力的 60%，第三季度運力的 40% 以上。

Alaska is behind on price, but well ahead on occupancy.

阿拉斯加在價格方面落後，但在入住率方面卻遙遙領先。

Recent booking volumes have been solid which bodes well for pricing on the remaining inventory.

最近的預訂量穩定，這對剩餘庫存的定價來說是個好兆頭。

The seasonal European program for our North American brands is showing signs of strength, particularly in the peak summer season which falls into our third quarter, where we are up nicely in both price and occupancy.

我們北美品牌的季節性歐洲計劃顯示出強勁的跡象，特別是在第三季度的夏季旺季，我們在價格和入住率方面都有不錯的增長。

For our EAA brands, the year-round European program which represents over 60% of the EAA brands capacity, we are seeing a sequential improvement in year over year pricing in each quarter, from the first to the third quarter for this program.

對於我們的 EAA 品牌來說，全年歐洲計劃佔 EAA 品牌容量的 60% 以上，我們看到該計劃從第一季度到第三季度每個季度的定價同比都在連續改善。

Bookings by volumes for these European programs for the last 13 weeks have been nicely higher as well.

過去 13 週這些歐洲項目的預訂量也大幅增加。

Now let me switch to costs, and give you some color on net cruise costs excluding fuel for 2014.

現在讓我轉向成本，向您介紹 2014 年不包括燃油的淨遊輪成本。

We now expect costs per ALBD to be up only slightly for 2014, even as we continue to invest in the future.

現在，即使我們繼續對未來進行投資，我們預計 2014 年每個 ALBD 的成本也只會略有上升。

This is a much better than the indication that we gave on the September call.

這比我們在 9 月份的電話會議上給出的指示要好得多。

At that time I did say that the numbers were preliminary, and that we would be visiting each of our operating companies to review their 2014 plans.

當時我確實說過這些數字是初步的，我們將拜訪每家運營公司以審查他們 2014 年的計劃。

A number of factors came together to reduce the increase.

多種因素共同作用導致增幅下降。

As I previously mentioned, our year over year comparison did benefit from the timing of certain expenses between the fourth quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, and that resulted in about a 0.5 point year over year impact.

正如我之前提到的，我們的同比比較確實受益於 2013 年第四季度和 2014 年第一季度之間某些費用的時間安排，這導致同比影響約為 0.5 個百分點。

In addition, we found ways to do some of the vessel enhancements and service, thereby reducing drydock days in 2014.

此外，我們找到了對船舶進行一些改進和維修的方法，從而減少了 2014 年的干船塢天數。

Furthermore, through increased collaboration and cooperation amongst our operating companies, we do expect to see cost reductions in a number of areas.

此外，通過我們運營公司之間加強協作與合作，我們確實希望看到許多領域的成本降低。

For 2014, we are also benefiting from favorable exchange rates and lower fuel prices, as well as some investments we made in fuel consumption, and we do expect an additional 4% improvement in fuel consumption for the year.

2014年，我們還受益於有利的匯率和較低的燃油價格，以及我們在燃油消耗方面進行的一些投資，我們預計今年燃油消耗將再提高4%。

So putting all of these factors together, for 2014 our non-GAAP EPS guidance is $1.40 to $1.80 per share, with a midpoint that is similar to 2013's non-GAAP EPS.

因此，將所有這些因素放在一起，我們對 2014 年非 GAAP 每股收益的指導為 1.40 美元至 1.80 美元，中間值與 2013 年非 GAAP 每股收益相似。

At this point, I will turn the call back over to Arnold.

此時，我會將電話轉回阿諾德。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Although 2013 was clearly a challenging year for our Company, we nevertheless enjoyed several significant accomplishments.

儘管 2013 年對於我們公司來說顯然是充滿挑戰的一年，但我們仍然取得了一些重大成就。

So for example, we made real progress in our Asia growth strategy, doubling our crew's presence in China, and successfully launching an inaugural home port in Japan.

例如，我們在亞洲增長戰略方面取得了真正的進展，將我們在中國的船員人數增加了一倍，並成功在日本開設了第一個母港。

We all opened five China offices, a second office in Japan, as well as offices in South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, all of which will support our 2014 Asian sourcing which is again expected to double.

我們在中國開設了五個辦事處，在日本開設了第二個辦事處，以及在韓國、台灣、香港和新加坡的辦事處，所有這些辦事處都將支持我們2014 年的亞洲採購，預計該採購量將再次翻倍。

We are moving quickly to ensure that we are well-positioned to capitalize in this important growth region.

我們正在迅速採取行動，以確保我們處於有利地位，可以利用這個重要的增長地區。

Also in 2013, through our two innovative new ships AIDAstella and Royal Princess, through ship retirements and through new technology, we have enhanced our fleet and improved efficiency.

同樣在 2013 年，通過我們的兩艘創新型新船 AIDAstella 和 Royal Princess，通過船舶退役和新技術，我們增強了我們的船隊並提高了效率。

AIDAstella and Royal Princess are both among most efficient ships at sea today, from both a unit cost and fuel efficiency standpoint which allows them to produce returns significantly higher than our fleet average.

從單位成本和燃油效率的角度來看，AIDAstella 和 Royal Princess 都是當今海上最高效的船舶之一，這使得它們產生的回報明顯高於我們船隊的平均水平。

We have also retired a smaller less profitable Costa vessel.

我們還退役了一艘利潤較低的小型歌詩達郵輪。

Of course, the upgrading of our fleet is a continuous process.

當然，我們機隊的升級是一個持續的過程。

We also announced a more efficient sea-borne ship to replace the three smaller original ships in 2016.

2016 年，我們還宣布用一艘更高效的海運船來取代原來的三艘較小的船。

And in 2013, we announced many exciting new product features to our guest experience, taking our guest experience to new heights, including several new dining concepts, American table, American feast, as well as the continued rollout of the extremely popular Guys Burger joint developed with Food Network personality, Guy Fieri.

2013 年，我們宣布了許多令人興奮的新產品功能，以提升我們的賓客體驗，將我們的賓客體驗提升到新的高度，包括多種新的餐飲概念、美式餐桌、美式盛宴，以及繼續推出與聯合開發的極受歡迎的Guys Burger美食頻道名人蓋伊·費里 (Guy Fieri)。

We intend -- we introduced new bar concepts as well, including the industry's first shipboard brewery that brews beer from purified seawater on our AIDA line, the Latin-infused Havana bar, as well as the continued rollout of the cocktail pharmacy theme, Alchemy bar, the EA Sports bar and the very popular Red Frog Pub, all in our Carnival brand.

我們還打算引入新的酒吧概念，包括業界第一家在我們的 AIDA 系列上用純淨海水釀造啤酒的船上啤酒廠、拉丁風味的哈瓦那酒吧，以及不斷推出的雞尾酒藥房主題 Alchemy 酒吧、EA Sports 酒吧和非常受歡迎的Red Frog Pub 都屬於我們的嘉年華品牌。

We introduced new entertainment concepts, including a Vegas-like water and light show ondeck on Princess, Dancing with the Stars at Sea, a partnership with the hit ABC show in the US on our Holland America line, and on our P&O UK line, Strictly Come Dancing partnering with BBC in the UK.

我們引入了新的娛樂概念，包括公主號甲板上拉斯維加斯般的水上燈光秀、海上與星共舞、在荷美航線上與美國熱門 ABC 節目以及 P&O 英國航線上的 Strictly 合作。 Come Dancing 與英國BBC 合作。

As well as the continued rollout of the positive BB King Blues Club on Holland America, and the Hasbro game show and the Punchliner Comedy club presented by George Lopez on Carnival line.

以及在 Holland America 上繼續推出積極的 BB King Blues Club，以及在嘉年華線上由喬治·洛佩茲 (George Lopez) 推出的孩之寶遊戲節目和 Punchliner Comedy 俱樂部。

For families, we unveiled Carnival Seuss at Sea, an exclusive partnership with Dr. Seuss Enterprises, additional waterworks aqua park, a new ropes course, and an interactive laser game on the Costa line.

對於家庭而言，我們推出了與 Dr. Seuss Enterprises 獨家合作的 Carnival Seuss at Sea、額外的水上樂園、新的繩索課程以及 Costa 線上的互動激光遊戲。

Our product offering for guests across our fleet has never been better, and there will be more exciting announcements after the New Year.

我們為整個機隊的客人提供的產品從未如此出色，新年後將會有更多令人興奮的公告。

This year we also embarked upon a number of travel agent outreach programs domestically and abroad.

今年，我們還開展了多項國內外旅行社推廣計劃。

We are gaining traction with our newly-introduced Agent Matters program in the UK, and here in the US our Carnival Conversations launched in June.

我們在英國新推出的 Agent Matters 計劃正在獲得越來越多的關注，而在美國，我們於 6 月推出了 Carnival Conversations。

That has truly resonates with our travel partners, as we implemented a number of initiatives based on agent feedback making it even easier to sell a Carnival cruise.

這確實引起了我們的旅行合作夥伴的共鳴，因為我們根據代理商的反饋實施了許多舉措，使銷售嘉年華遊輪變得更加容易。

And as you know, Carnival Cruise Lines also launched a creative new national advertising campaign, featuring the vacation moment testimonials from some of our millions of fulfilled guests.

如您所知，嘉年華郵輪公司還推出了一項富有創意的新全國廣告活動，其中包括數百萬滿意的客人對假期時刻的感言。

We also unveiled the Great Vacation guarantee, an unprecedented money back guarantee.

我們還推出了“美好假期”保證，這是前所未有的退款保證。

These efforts have already borne fruit, as we have realized a significant improvement in brand perception and consideration for the Carnival line, already restoring 75% of the drop in perception it experienced earlier this calendar year.

這些努力已經取得了成果，我們已經意識到嘉年華系列的品牌認知度和考慮度有了顯著改善，已經恢復了今年早些時候認知度下降的 75%。

We have so far experienced a faster recovery for the Carnival brand than originally anticipated, and our team is working very hard to keep that momentum going.

到目前為止，嘉年華品牌的複蘇速度比最初預期的要快，我們的團隊正在努力保持這一勢頭。

However, we do recognize the limited visibility we have at this point to the peak summer season where we generate most of our annual profits, and we are very cognizant of the particularly high capacity growth for the core Caribbean products beginning in the second quarter.

然而，我們確實認識到，目前我們對夏季旺季的能見度有限，我們的大部分年度利潤都是在夏季旺季產生的，而且我們非常清楚，從第二季度開始，加勒比核心產品的產能增長特別高。

So we maintain a level of caution, and are focused on identifying additional signs that the pace of recovery we are experiencing is in fact sustainable.

因此，我們保持一定程度的謹慎，並專注於尋找其他跡象，表明我們正在經歷的複蘇步伐實際上是可持續的。

We have taken a hard look at costs, and attacked our challenges head-on.

我們認真審視了成本，並正面應對挑戰。

I am very proud of the creativity and our team to execute successfully at lower cost than originally anticipated, and very importantly -- without compromising, without compromising, on critical investments we need to make to provide the foundation for the growth we expect and return on invested capital, earnings, and free cash flow over time.

我對我們的創造力和我們的團隊以低於最初預期的成本成功執行感到非常自豪，而且非常重要的是，我們需要進行關鍵投資，為我們預期的增長和回報奠定基礎，而不妥協，不妥協。隨著時間的推移，投資資本、收益和自由現金流。

In my first six months I have affirmed what I knew at a visceral level as a Board member, the inherent strengths of this organization clearly lies in our people.

在我擔任董事會成員的前六個月裡，我從內心深處確認了這一點：這個組織的內在優勢顯然在於我們的員工。

They are passionate, and they are dedicated worldwide.

他們充滿熱情，並致力於全世界。

Our core product is clearly the best vacation value there is, and of course, our scale gives us a tremendous opportunity for improved performance.

我們的核心產品顯然是最好的度假價值，當然，我們的規模為我們提供了提高績效的巨大機會。

We have more than 100 ships and 10 million guests each year, twice that of the next largest player in the industry.

我們每年擁有超過 100 艘船舶和 1000 萬客人，是業內第二大參與者的兩倍。

With 78 million passenger cruise days, we have a tremendous opportunity to accelerate earnings growth by leveraging our scale.

我們擁有 7800 萬乘客郵輪日，擁有巨大的機會利用我們的規模來加速盈利增長。

Operating our brands independently has been successful, and it has led to our industry-leading position.

獨立運營我們的品牌取得了成功，並奠定了我們的行業領先地位。

The brands will remain independent, especially at the guest interface level as they become increasingly distinct in the psychographics of the guests they source and they service.

這些品牌將保持獨立，特別是在賓客界面層面，因為它們在其採購和服務的賓客的心理特徵中變得越來越獨特。

Going forward, we do plan to change the focus of our efforts in how we work together across the brands to enable us to leverage our scale.

展望未來，我們確實計劃改變跨品牌合作的工作重點，以充分利用我們的規模。

And we want to leverage it far more than we have historically.

我們希望比歷史上更多地利用它。

Through greater communication, through collaboration, and through cooperation across the 10 brands, we will more fully capitalize on the inherent opportunity that our scale affords us.

通過加強溝通、通過協作以及通過 10 個品牌之間的合作，我們將更充分地利用我們的規模為我們提供的固有機會。

We have already announced the realignment of our leadership team, and have begun to change our work processes and our incentive structure to facilitate these efforts.

我們已經宣布了領導團隊的重組，並開始改變我們的工作流程和激勵結構以促進這些努力。

Our reconfigured leadership team has identified a plethora of opportunities to work together, both on the revenue side and the cost side.

我們重新配置的領導團隊已經發現了大量的合作機會，無論是在收入方面還是在成本方面。

On the revenue side, we are collaborating on onboard revenue initiatives and revenue management practices, including consolidating our efforts toward optimizing our pricing models.

在收入方面，我們正在就船上收入計劃和收入管理實踐進行合作，包括鞏固我們優化定價模型的努力。

On the cost side, we are increasing cooperation on procurement, inventory management, and port planning.

在成本方面，我們正在加強採購、庫存管理、港口規劃等方面的合作。

We have begun to mine our opportunities by sizing and prioritizing these and many other initiatives.

我們已經開始通過確定這些舉措和許多其他舉措的規模和優先順序來挖掘我們的機會。

Our leadership team is driven around the principle that we have the greatest vacation value there is.

我們的領導團隊遵循的原則是我們擁有最大的假期價值。

It is difficult, given the diversity of incredible vacation moments we offer, it is difficult if not impossible for guests to achieve the same fulfillment with a land vacation at anywhere near the cost or ease that characterizes our cruise vacations.

考慮到我們提供的令人難以置信的假期時刻的多樣性，對於客人來說，即使不是不可能，也很難以接近我們遊輪假期的成本或輕鬆度的方式在陸地度假中獲得同樣的滿足感。

The inherent value is so great, we simply need to consistently exceed guest expectations, make certain that each guest experiences the brand that is right for them, and ensure that they are just wowed when they leave.

其內在價值是如此之大，我們只需要不斷超越客人的期望，確保每位客人體驗到適合他們的品牌，並確保他們在離開時驚嘆不已。

And that wowed is w, o, w, e, d, wowed.

令人驚嘆的是w、o、w、e、d，令人驚嘆。

A thrilled guest will advocate for our brand.

激動的客人將為我們的品牌代言。

Word-of-mouth is the most influential method to stimulate new demand, as we increase advocacy for our products, that demand will drive ticket prices higher.

口碑是刺激新需求最有影響力的方法，隨著我們增加對我們產品的宣傳，這種需求將推高票價。

Over time, we expect to benefit from the combined efforts of our leadership team and our 120,000 plus global employees.

隨著時間的推移，我們預計將從我們的領導團隊和 120,000 多名全球員工的共同努力中受益。

We will continue to invest in prudent ways to accelerate the recoveries in Costa and Carnival that are already underway, and we are ardently focused on delivering a customer experience that surpasses even the high levels we achieved today, driving greater advocacy in each of our brands.

我們將繼續以審慎的方式進行投資，以加速歌詩達和嘉年華已經開始的複蘇，我們熱切地致力於提供超越我們今天所達到的高水平的客戶體驗，從而推動我們每個品牌的更大宣傳。

We will capitalize on our tremendous product attributes and our industry-leading scale.

我們將利用我們巨大的產品屬性和行業領先的規模。

And through our combined efforts, I have great confidence in our ability to execute and deliver on the expectations that we have set for ourselves, realizing our Company's true earnings power and driving significant free cash flow.

通過我們的共同努力，我對我們執行和實現為自己設定的期望、實現公司真正盈利能力並推動大量自由現金流的能力充滿信心。

And importantly, delivering against our objective of returning our Company to double-digit returns on invested capital.

重要的是，這實現了我們使公司的投資資本回報率達到兩位數的目標。

Kelly, we would now like to open it up for Q&A?

凱利，我們現在想開始問答嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓·法利，瑞銀集團。

Great, thanks.

萬分感謝。

I have two questions.

我有兩個問題。

First is, I wonder if you could comment on occupancy on the Carnival brand?

首先，請問您能否對嘉年華品牌的入住率發表評論？

In particular, you have talked about holding occupancy and letting price drop a little bit in Q4, and just wondering to what degree you did that in Q4, and how you will approach that going forward?

特別是，您談到了在第四季度保持入住率並讓價格略有下降，只是想知道您在第四季度做到了什麼程度，以及未來將如何處理？

And then secondly, your comments about the EAA brands being up 2%, but with others -- Costa up and others down, is that suggesting that Costa's pricing was up maybe 5% or something?

其次，您對 EAA 品牌上漲 2% 的評論，但其他品牌——Costa 上漲，其他品牌下跌，這是否表明 Costa 的定價可能上漲了 5% 或其他？

I would just love to hear a little more color on that, because that would be very encouraging.

我只是想听到更多關於這一點的看法，因為這會非常令人鼓舞。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

As far as the occupancy is concerned, we did see Carnival sail with some empty cabins in the back half of the year.

就入住率而言，我們確實看到嘉年華在下半年航行時有一些空艙。

That was just a 2 points of occupancy, down from their historic numbers.

這僅比歷史數據下降了 2 個百分點。

The EAA brands, keep in mind that there are six brands in total.

EAA 品牌，請記住，共有六個品牌。

The Costa yields were actually up double-digits in the fourth quarter, and the other brands were down and offset that, which is how we wound up with the overall 2%.

Costa 的收益率實際上在第四季度增長了兩位數，而其他品牌的收益率下降並抵消了這一影響，這就是我們最終獲得 2% 的總體收益率的原因。

And so, is it reasonable to think that the Costa brand, if this was is a first quarter of pricing recovery that that rate of recovery would continue the next couple quarters for Costa as well?

因此，如果這是Costa品牌價格復甦的第一季度，那麼Costa品牌的複蘇速度在接下來的幾個季度也會持續下去，這樣的想法是否合理？

We did see pricing recovery, but it is early given the booking trends, where it is early.

我們確實看到了價格回升，但考慮到預訂趨勢，現在還為時過早。

And we don't normally give specific guidance by brand as we move forward.

在我們前進的過程中，我們通常不會按品牌提供具體指導。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

But keep in mind for Costa, the deployment has changed quite a bit, and particularly in the winter.

但請記住，對於 Costa 來說，部署已經發生了很大變化，尤其是在冬天。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Felicia Hendrix, Barclays.

費利西亞·亨德里克斯，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning.

早上好。

David, thanks for the color on how the cost guidance changed.

大衛，感謝您對成本指導如何變化的說明。

I know a lot of people were wondering about that this morning.

我知道今天早上很多人都想知道這個問題。

You mentioned that in addition to some of the color you gave us, you mentioned that the Company is going to see cost reductions in a number of areas, which is a bit of generic way to describe that.

您提到，除了給我們提供的一些顏色之外，您還提到公司將在許多領域實現成本削減，這是描述這一點的一種通用方式。

So just wondering if you could give us some specific examples of how that -- how you are seeing cost reductions there?

所以想知道您是否可以給我們一些具體的例子來說明您如何看到那裡的成本降低？

And as we think about the various cost line items that drive your overall net cruise costs ex-fuel, wondering about how we should think about each of these for 2014?

當我們考慮推動您的整體遊輪淨成本（不含燃油）的各種成本項目時，想知道我們應該如何考慮 2014 年的每一項成本？

In other words, how to think about payroll and food and SG&A, that sort of thing?

換句話說，如何考慮工資、食品和 SG&A 之類的事情？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, Robin, I'm sorry, Felicia, sorry.

是的，羅賓，對不起，費利西亞，對不起。

I don't want to go into all the detailed line items, in terms of costs on a year over year basis, because there is a lot of changes.

我不想詳細介紹所有詳細的項目，就逐年成本而言，因為有很多變化。

This product initiatives that we are investing in.

我們正在投資的這個產品計劃。

There is a number of areas we found cost savings.

我們發現在許多方面都可以節省成本。

But I think I can provide a little additional color.

但我想我可以提供一點額外的色彩。

I mean, Arnold had mentioned the cooperation and collaboration in areas like ports and procurement and inventory management.

我的意思是，阿諾德提到了港口、採購和庫存管理等領域的合作與協作。

The way these things translate, I will give you an example.

這些東西的翻譯方式，我給你舉個例子。

In North America, we looked at all the commercial printing.

在北美，我們研究了所有的商業印刷。

There were over 70 vendors that we were using on a -- for different types of printing.

我們使用了 70 多家供應商來進行不同類型的打印。

We rationalized those vendors.

我們對這些供應商進行了合理化調整。

We got better contracts for all the brands collectively.

我們為所有品牌集體簽訂了更好的合同。

We now only have a handful of vendors each doing different things, and we are saving millions of dollars.

我們現在只有少數供應商，每個供應商都做不同的事情，但我們節省了數百萬美元。

This is particularly important, when you think about the fact that Carnival Cruise Lines has committed to now printing brochures again, which will -- they can do in a much more efficient manner and save us some additional money.

考慮到嘉年華遊輪公司現在已承諾再次印刷小冊子，這一點尤其重要，他們可以以更有效的方式做到這一點，並為我們節省一些額外的錢。

So it is things like that, that will bode well for 2014, and there is lots of little examples that add up to many millions of dollars around the Corporation.

因此，類似的事情對 2014 年來說是個好兆頭，公司周圍有很多小例子，加起來就達數百萬美元。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just on the revenue side, the pricing survey work that we do implies that the Company, or just some of the brands are doing some significant base loading in the second quarter.

然後就收入方面而言，我們所做的定價調查工作意味著該公司或只是某些品牌在第二季度進行了一些重要的基礎負載。

I was just wondering if you could talk about the traction you are getting, as you re trying to implement that strategy, and when you look out that far, are you seeing more normalized booking curve?

我只是想知道您是否可以談談您在嘗試實施該策略時所獲得的吸引力，當您觀察到那麼遠時，您是否看到了更加標準化的預訂曲線？

I think I had indicated -- I mean, the booking volumes for the first half are up, but they are up at lower prices.

我想我已經表示過——我的意思是，上半年的預訂量有所增加，但價格卻較低。

Clearly, as we have said a number of times, over the last year where we are, we are at the lower end or slightly below our historical booking curve.

顯然，正如我們多次說過的那樣，在過去的一年裡，我們處於低端或略低於歷史預訂曲線。

So we are trying to catch up.

所以我們正在努力追趕。

We are encouraged by the volumes.

我們對數量感到鼓舞。

And so, it is hard to relate to the scraping that you do, because the scrapings in many cases only relates to prices on a few cabins, and not to the overall yield trend for us.

因此，很難將您所做的刮削聯繫起來，因為在許多情況下，刮削僅與少數艙位的價格有關，而不與我們的整體收益率趨勢有關。

So hopefully, that provides you some additional color.

希望這能為您提供一些額外的色彩。

Yes, helpful.

是的，有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Steven Kent, Goldman Sachs.

史蒂文·肯特，高盛。

Sure.

當然。

A couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

First, are you, on close-in bookings, are you seeing any improvement as you get closer to departure?

首先，當您臨近出發時，您是否發現近距離預訂有任何改善？

And then more broadly on the Costa and Carnival brands, any sense on when those brands recover to pre-incident levels?

然後更廣泛地說，對於歌詩達和嘉年華品牌，這些品牌何時恢復到事件前的水平有什麼意義嗎？

On the recovery, this is Arnold.

關於康復，這是阿諾德。

On the recovery of Costa and Carnival, we said in previous calls that traditionally other industries, other incidents, two to three years for recovery.

關於歌詩達和嘉年華的複蘇，我們在之前的電話中說過，傳統上其他行業、其他事件，需要兩到三年的時間才能恢復。

The Costa recovery has been impeded somewhat by the week European economy, and just the weakness in a lot of the markets where Costa sources their passengers.

科斯塔的複蘇在一定程度上受到了歐洲經濟疲弱的影響，以及科斯塔乘客來源的許多市場的疲軟。

But we are seeing a lifting in yields and occupancy in Costa, but the recovery may take longer than the two to three-year norm that -- (No audio -- technical difficulties).

但我們看到科斯塔的收益率和入住率有所提高，但復甦可能需要比兩到三年的正常時間更長的時間——（沒有音頻——技術困難）。

Harry Curtis, Nomura Securities.

哈里·柯蒂斯，野村證券。

Good morning.

早上好。

Just to follow-up on a couple of prior questions, can you give us a sense of -- well, your cumulative bookings for the first half of the year you said, they are still behind.

為了跟進之前的幾個問題，您能否讓我們了解一下您所說的上半年的累計預訂量，它們仍然落後。

Can you put a number behind that, in terms of your occupancy today looking into the first quarter, versus where it was a year ago?

您能否提供一個數字，即今天第一季度的入住率與一年前的入住率？

I am just wondering to what extent you are behind?

我只是想知道你落後到什麼程度了？

Hello?

你好？

Technical difficulties?

技術難點？

(No audio -- technical difficulties).

（沒有音頻——技術困難）。

Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by.

女士們先生們，請稍候。

The conference will resume shortly.

會議將很快恢復。

(Technical difficulties -- music playing).

（技術難點——音樂播放）。

Please go ahead, the call has begun.

請繼續，通話已經開始。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Sorry, everyone, it seemed to have dropped.

抱歉各位，好像已經掉了。

We have no idea what happened, but we apologize.

我們不知道發生了什麼，但我們深表歉意。

I am not sure exactly where we dropped and where we were in the comments, so I will just repeat the answer to the question to make sure we covered it.

我不確定我們到底在哪里以及我們在評論中的位置，所以我將重複問題的答案以確保我們涵蓋了它。

Concerning the Costa and Carnival, as I was saying the Costa recovery has been somewhat impaired by the weak situation in the European markets where a number of the passengers are sourced.

關於歌詩達和嘉年華，正如我所說，歌詩達的複蘇在一定程度上受到了歐洲市場疲軟的影響，歐洲市場是許多乘客的來源地。

So we are seeing some delay, however, the Costa yields are trending up, as is occupancy.

因此，我們看到了一些延遲，但是，Costa 的收益率和入住率都呈上升趨勢。

With regards to Carnival, we have experienced some accelerated recovery in Carnival, experiencing that in especially here in the fourth quarter -- the fourth quarter just closed.

關於嘉年華，我們經歷了嘉年華的加速復蘇，尤其是在第四季度——第四季度剛剛結束。

But we are cautious looking forward, to make certain we have a clear view after the wave season, given the added capacity that is going to the Caribbean.

但考慮到前往加勒比地區的運力增加，我們對未來持謹慎態度，以確保我們在波浪季節之後有清晰的視野。

But at this point, certainly the Carnival recovery is a little bit ahead of that two to three-year timeframe that is conventional kind of thinking, concerning recovery of brands that have suffered incidents.

但就目前而言，對於遭受事件影響的品牌的複蘇而言，嘉年華的複蘇無疑比傳統思維的兩到三年時間提前了一點。

And as far as the question about the last-minute bookings, for the fourth quarter, clearly the last-minute bookings were strong and better than we expected, particularly at Carnival Cruise Lines which is why we exceeded the guidance.

至於有關最後一刻預訂的問題，第四季度的最後一刻預訂顯然很強勁，而且好於我們的預期，特別是在嘉年華遊輪公司，這就是我們超出指導的原因。

We have anticipated within our guidance for 2014 good bookings throughout the year, particularly the last-minute which is all baked into our best estimate of guidance where yields are down slightly for the year.

我們預計 2014 年全年的預訂量都會良好，尤其是最後一刻，這一切都納入了我們對全年收益率小幅下降的最佳預測預估。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Kelly.

謝謝你，凱利。

Next question?

下一個問題？

Jaime Katz, Morningstar.

海梅·卡茨，晨星。

Good morning.

早上好。

Can you talk a little bit more about some of the advertising and marketing spend you are doing in 2014, and how you expect the cadence of that to occur?

您能否多談談您在 2014 年所做的一些廣告和營銷支出，以及您預計這些支出的節奏如何？

And then, just any changes to your CapEx spending in the years ahead would be helpful?

然後，未來幾年您的資本支出支出的任何變化都會有幫助嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, I will comment on the advertising spend to an extent, and then I will have David comment additionally on the CapEx.

是的，我將在一定程度上評論廣告支出，然後我將讓大衛對資本支出進行補充評論。

Concerning advertising, during the fourth quarter we clearly invested heavily in Carnival, but we also invested across a number of other brands to generate demand, and that is continuing into the first quarter of next year.

在廣告方面，第四季度我們顯然在嘉年華上投入了大量資金，但我們還投資了許多其他品牌來產生需求，這種情況將持續到明年第一季度。

For the full year, we will be substantially ahead in 2014 in total advertising spend versus what we spent say, in 2012.

就全年而言，2014 年我們的廣告總支出將大幅領先於 2012 年。

And we will also have an increase over what we have spent cumulatively in 2013 as well.

我們的累計支出也將比 2013 年有所增加。

So we are investing more heavily, broadly in advertising and promotions to stimulate demand.

因此，我們正在加大力度、更廣泛地投資於廣告和促銷活動，以刺激需求。

David?

大衛？

Sure.

當然。

The expected CapEx for 2014 is $2.9 billion, for 2015 it's $2.8 billion, and for 2016 it's $2.9 billion.

2014 年預計資本支出為 29 億美元，2015 年為 28 億美元，2016 年為 29 億美元。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And we have a follow-up question from Harry Curtis.

哈里·柯蒂斯向我們提出了後續問題。

I will open up your line, sir.

我會開通您的線路，先生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, Harry.

是的，哈利。

Okay, good morning.

好的，早上好。

So the question I was coming back to was just your cumulative bookings.

所以我要回到的問題只是您的累計預訂量。

You mentioned we are still behind for the first half of 2014, and I am wondering if you could put a little more color behind that?

您提到 2014 年上半年我們仍然落後，我想知道您是否可以在這後面添加更多色彩？

Yes, Harry, we don't get into a lot of detail.

是的，哈利，我們不會討論太多細節。

I mean, we are a couple -- a number of percentage points behind.

我的意思是，我們是一對——落後了幾個百分點。

A lot of this has to do with what happens throughout 2013.

這很大程度上與 2013 年發生的事情有關。

But in some cases, some of our brands felt that they would rather be patient.

但在某些情況下，我們的一些品牌覺得他們寧願耐心等待。

We could have moved the booking curve closer in by lowering price.

我們本可以通過降低價格來使預訂曲線更接近。

But in many cases, you are better off being patient, waiting, holding your price, knowing very well that the bookings will come at a higher price.

但在許多情況下，您最好耐心等待，保持價格不變，並且非常清楚預訂的價格會更高。

So we are trying to manage that as we always do.

因此，我們正像往常一樣努力解決這個問題。

And hopefully, we will maximize the yields for 2014.

希望我們能夠最大限度地提高 2014 年的產量。

So at this point you are just not -- they are close enough to last year, that you are not panicking in other words?

所以在這一點上，你只是不——他們已經足夠接近去年了，換句話說，你並不感到恐慌？

Oh no.

不好了。

No.

不。

Believe me, we never let the bookings get too far behind.

相信我，我們從來不會讓預訂拖延太久。

The -- we are always carefully managing that on a voyage by voyage, cabin by cabin category basis.

我們始終在逐個航程、逐個客艙類別的基礎上仔細管理這一點。

And I think it is fair to say that --

我認為可以公平地說——

Beth has a comment.

貝絲有評論。

Go ahead.

前進。

And I think it's fair to say we have caught up a few --

我認為可以公平地說我們已經趕上了一些——

a few percentage points over the last 13 weeks.

過去 13 週上升了幾個百分點。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Yes, they -- (multiple Speakers).

是的，他們——（多名發言者）。

Okay.

好的。

(Multiple Speakers).

（多個發言者）。

They have been significantly better, and we did catch up a few points.

他們明顯好一些，我們確實趕上了一些分。

And then moving to my second question.

然後轉向我的第二個問題。

Regarding Asia, can you remind us how much capacity that you have there now?

關於亞洲，您能告訴我們您現在在那裡有多少產能嗎？

And what your plans are to expand, and expectation for pricing, and kind of returns per berth, versus what your other opportunities in Europe and the Caribbean?

與您在歐洲和加勒比地區的其他機會相比，您的擴張計劃是什麼，對定價的預期以及每個泊位的回報類型是什麼？

Yes, overall, Asia is probably about 5% of our capacity for 2014.

是的，總體而言，亞洲可能占我們 2014 年產能的 5% 左右。

The yields in Asia are a little bit below the overall corporate average.

亞洲的收益率略低於整體企業平均水平。

We have talked a lot about a continued expansion into Asia, so you will hear more about that in the future.

我們已經談論了很多關於繼續向亞洲擴張的問題，所以您將來會聽到更多相關信息。

And as far as the returns, keep in mind that it is early, and we are continuing to invest particularly in the advertising and promotion throughout the region.

就回報而言，請記住，現在還為時過早，我們將繼續投資，特別是在整個地區的廣告和促銷方面。

So it is fair to say that the returns in Asia are at the moment, aren't where we would like them to be.

因此，可以公平地說，目前亞洲的回報率並未達到我們希望的水平。

But we do expect over time for them to increase, and we do expect it to be a solid part of our business in the future.

但我們確實預計隨著時間的推移，它們會增加，並且我們確實預計它將成為我們未來業務的堅實組成部分。

(Inaudible).

（聽不清）。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, we have sourced a 0.25 million passengers, and we will be doubling that to over 0.5 million in 2014.

是的，我們已經接待了 25 萬名乘客，2014 年我們將增加一倍，達到 50 萬人以上。

Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

史蒂夫·維琴斯基，斯蒂菲爾。

Yes, thanks.

對了謝謝。

Good morning.

早上好。

So without actual quantitative yield guidance out there for 2014, you are just at this point saying down slightly.

因此，在沒有 2014 年實際量化收益率指導的情況下，您此時只是說略有下降。

What are maybe the two or three swing factors that could be -- and that could be a brand, that could be a specific market -- that would drive those yields either to positive territory, say 1% or 2%, or down 1% or 2%?

可能有哪些兩三個搖擺因素——可能是一個品牌，也可能是一個特定市場——可能會推動這些收益率達到正值，比如 1% 或 2%，或者下降 1%還是2%？

Yes, that -- it is a tough question.

是的，這是一個很難回答的問題。

I think the whole concept here is, as I have said before, it's early.

我認為這裡的整個概念是，正如我之前所說，現在還為時過早。

There is a lot of uncertainty.

有很多不確定性。

The brands are recovering.

品牌正在復蘇。

So it is --

原來如此——

Pre wave.

預波。

It is pre-wave, so we are not giving a specific number.

這是預波，所以我們沒有給出具體數字。

But clearly, we will have a much better indication during the wave season.

但顯然，我們將在波浪季節得到更好的指示。

And so, by the time we get to March, I think we will be in a much better position.

因此，到三月份時，我認為我們的處境會好得多。

Because as we have said before that during the wave season, a big chunk of the third quarter which as Arnold said is a lot of our profitability is booked.

因為正如我們之前所說，在波浪季節，第三季度的很大一部分時間都被預訂了，正如阿諾德所說，這是我們的大部分盈利能力。

So we will have a much better feel for where we are for the year when we get to March.

因此，當我們到了三月份時，我們會對這一年的情況有更好的感覺。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then on the fuel consumption side, you are forecasting that you are down again in 2014, which is pretty impressive given that that would be three years in a row.

然後在燃料消耗方面，您預測 2014 年將再次下降，考慮到這將是連續三年，這是相當令人印象深刻的。

So can you help us think about what is driving that consumption down, and how much more of that is to come in the future?

那麼您能否幫助我們思考一下是什麼導致了消費下降，以及未來還會下降多少？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Well, I guess, in terms of the future, we have been consistently saying that there are so many things we are working on the horizon.

嗯，我想，就未來而言，我們一直在說我們正在做很多事情。

And by the way, we do have 101 ships, so not every ship have we implemented every single fuel consumption savings yet.

順便說一句，我們確實有 101 艘船，所以我們還沒有為每艘船實現每一項燃油消耗節省。

So as the ships go into drydock, we continue to roll out new things and we do expect as we said in the long-term, 2% to 3% fuel consumption reduction each year, for about as far out as we can see.

因此，當船舶進入乾船塢時，我們會繼續推出新產品，正如我們所說，從長遠來看，我們預計每年燃料消耗會減少2% 至3%，這是我們所能看到的最遠的距離。

We are talking 4% for next year.

我們正在討論明年的 4%。

We did a little bit better, and these things come both in tweaking the itineraries, and also in new technology that we put onboard the ship.

我們做得更好一點，這些事情既體現在調整行程上，也體現在我們在船上安裝的新技術上。

One of the things that has been a great fuel saver is, are the air-conditioning, the HVAC systems.

空調、暖通空調系統是非常節省燃料的因素之一。

HVAC probably represents 25% of our fuel consumption.

HVAC 可能占我們燃料消耗的 25%。

And anybody who owns a house knows that if they install a new air-conditioning compressor, versus maybe the 10 or 15-year-old one that they had in the house, they are going to save on their electric bill.

任何擁有房屋的人都知道，如果他們安裝一台新的空調壓縮機，而不是家裡已有 10 或 15 年曆史的空調壓縮機，他們將節省電費。

Well, the same thing works true on a cruise ship, so that is part of our CapEx.

嗯，同樣的事情也適用於遊輪，所以這是我們資本支出的一部分。

We are installing those things, as well as lots of other things which create savings for us.

我們正在安裝這些東西，以及許多其他可以為我們節省開支的東西。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Assia Georgieva, Infinity Research.

阿西亞·格奧爾基耶娃，無限研究。

Good morning.

早上好。

David, maybe you can help me with a couple of quick questions.

大衛，也許你可以幫我回答幾個簡單的問題。

Occupancy in Q2 versus Q1, do you feel that it is ahead, or do you -- are you -- are the brands still holding on the Q2?

第二季度的入住率與第一季度的入住率相比，您是否覺得它領先了，或者您是否——您——品牌是否仍在第二季度堅持？

The whole first half was behind.

整個上半場都落後了。

I didn't give any specific color by quarter, but the whole first half is -- was behind at this moment, but catching up.

我沒有按季度給出任何具體顏色，但整個上半場是——此時落後，但正在追趕。

Both quarters are catching up at this point.

目前，兩個季度都在迎頭趕上。

The bookings for both quarters are good.

兩個季度的預訂情況都不錯。

So rather -- that is why, instead of going through the details for each quarter, I just tried to give the whole first half summary.

因此，這就是為什麼我沒有詳細介紹每個季度的細節，而是試圖給出整個上半年的總結。

And it's pretty much the same for first versus second, except the first is further booked than the second at this point, which is what you would expect.

第一個與第二個的情況幾乎相同，只是第一個此時比第二個被預訂得更多，這正是您所期望的。

Right.

正確的。

And could you quickly give us the capacity increases by quarter in -- you don't have to go through North American versus EAA, if you can just give us the quick number for the corporate total?

如果您能給我們公司總數的快速數字，您能否快速向我們提供按季度增長的產能——您不必經過北美與 EAA 的比較？

Sure.

當然。

Hang on one second.

等一下。

Let's see, the first quarter is 1.8%, second quarter 4.9%, third quarter 2.2%.

讓我們看看，第一季度是1.8%，第二季度是4.9%，第三季度是2.2%。

third quarter 2.5% --

第三季度 2.5% --

Fourth quarter.

第四季度。

Fourth quarter 2.5%, and the full year is 2.8%.

第四季度為2.5%，全年為2.8%。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This is very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And I will try to ask this question -- it probably won't get answered -- but when you use the same kind of language that Howard liked to use, down slightly, should we be thinking down 1% to 2%, or down 3% for the fiscal 2014 yields?

我會嘗試問這個問題——它可能不會得到回答——但是當你使用霍華德喜歡使用的同一種語言時，稍微降低一點，我們應該考慮降低1%到2%，還是降低2014財年收益率為3%？

You were right at the start of the question.

你在問題一開始就說對了。

(Laughter).

（笑聲）。

I figured.

我估計。

(Multiple Speakers).

（多個發言者）。

I did try though.

不過我確實嘗試過。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Ian Rennardson, Jefferies.

伊恩·雷納德森，杰弗里斯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Two or three questions please.

請提出兩三個問題。

Would you consider retiring more ships, and if so how many in 2014 and 2015?

您是否會考慮退役更多船舶？如果考慮，2014 年和 2015 年退役多少艘？

Secondly, could you give us some idea on your initial thoughts -- I know it's a long way away -- but on your costs ex-fuel for 2015, what sort of plans do you have there for 2015?

其次，您能否給我們一些關於您最初想法的想法——我知道這還有很長的路要走——但是關於您 2015 年的燃油成本，您 2015 年有什麼樣的計劃？

I am also slightly intrigued by the wide range of the earnings forecast, $1.40 to $1.80.

我對盈利預測的廣泛範圍（1.40 美元至 1.80 美元）也有點感興趣。

Why would you -- you have already said that you are behind on the historic booking curve, so what gives you the -- even the comfort to give such a wide range as that?

你為什麼——你已經說過，你在歷史預訂曲線上落後了，那麼是什麼給你——甚至是安慰，提供如此廣泛的範圍？

And then finally, just could you strip out of those CapEx numbers you gave David, what is maintenance, what is newbuild please?

最後，你能去掉你給大衛的那些資本支出數字嗎？什麼是維護，什麼是新建？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Concerning the first portion of the question, in terms of a layup or selling off ships, obviously, we evaluate that on an ongoing basis all the time.

關於問題的第一部分，就擱置或出售船舶而言，顯然，我們一直在持續評估。

Clearly, we took out a Costa vessel this year.

顯然，我們今年拿出了一艘歌詩達船隻。

But if a vessel is not sustaining its contribution over time, obviously, we will lay it up.

但如果一艘船不能隨著時間的推移維持其貢獻，顯然，我們將把它擱置起來。

And then as some vessels age, when there is a market -- as you know, there is not a big secondary market for these ships, when there is a market, we will divest of it.

然後，隨著一些船舶的老化，當有市場時——如你所知，這些船舶沒有很大的二級市場，當有市場時，我們將剝離它。

But that is an ongoing evaluation, and we look for sustained indications to make a decision.

但這是一個持續的評估，我們會尋找持續的跡象來做出決定。

But we have no problems whatsoever laying up or discontinuing ships that are not contributing.

但對於閒置或停產沒有貢獻的船舶，我們沒有任何問題。

Okay.

好的。

In terms of the costs for 2015, at this point I would say that, obviously we will continue with our focus on costs.

就2015年的成本而言，我想說的是，顯然我們將繼續關注成本。

We will continue to invest to stimulate demand and innovate our products to drive ticket yields and revenues, because that is the bigger engine.

我們將繼續投資以刺激需求並創新我們的產品以提高門票收益率和收入，因為這是更大的引擎。

But we will continue our focus on costs, and through the collaboration and coordination across the brands, we are expecting to show good cost performance going forward.

但我們會繼續關注成本，通過各品牌之間的協作和協調，我們預計未來會展現出良好的性價比。

Yes, I think on the cost side the only thing I would like to add is, we have said a number of times that we expect net cruise costs excluding fuel to be flat to half of inflation in the long-term.

是的，我認為在成本方面，我唯一想補充的是，我們已經多次說過，我們預計從長遠來看，不包括燃油的淨遊輪成本將持平至通貨膨脹的一半。

We hope that we can do better than that.

我們希望我們能做得更好。

And we strive to do better than that, but that is a good starting point for guidance for 2015 going forward.

我們努力做得更好，但這是 2015 年展望的良好起點。

As far as the range is concerned, traditionally we had given a range of let's say $0.20 in December.

就範圍而言，傳統上我們在 12 月份給出的範圍是 0.20 美元。

If you look back, that is where most of years were.

如果你回頭看，那是大部分時間都在的地方。

Because of the greater degree of uncertainty we widened the range, and there wasn't any particular magic to the $0.40 range.

由於不確定性更大，我們擴大了範圍，0.40 美元的範圍沒有任何特別的魔力。

Keep in mind, that every percentage point on yield is $0.15.

請記住，每一個百分點的收益率為 0.15 美元。

So what we are talking here is, a range that maybe is a little over 2 percentage points on yield, a percentage point of costs is $0.09, so that has got to be factored in as well.

所以我們在這裡討論的是，收益率的範圍可能略高於 2 個百分點，成本的一個百分點是 0.09 美元，所以也必須考慮在內。

But that gives you some indication.

但這給了你一些指示。

And we do feel comfortable with the range, and that is why we put it out there.

我們確實對該系列感到滿意，這就是我們將其推出的原因。

I would also say with the issue of having two brand recoveries going on, and being behind in booking pattern, how wave shakes out become becomes increasingly important.

我還想說，由於兩個品牌正在復蘇，並且預訂模式落後，浪潮如何擺脫變得越來越重要。

And so, sitting here and having to give guidance before wave, it is just more difficult in this situation than that it would be in a normal operating environment.

因此，坐在這裡並必須在揮手之前進行指導，在這種情況下比在正常操作環境中更加困難。

So it was just a prudent decision to broaden the range.

因此，擴大範圍只是一個謹慎的決定。

Sure.

當然。

And the last question, as far as the CapEx is concerned, for 2014, it's about $1.4 billion of non-newbuild.

最後一個問題，就資本支出而言，2014 年非新建資本支出約為 14 億美元。

It is also $1.4 billion for 2015, and for 2016 it is about $1 billion of non-newbuild CapEx.

2015 年的非新建資本支出也為 14 億美元，2016 年的非新建資本支出約為 10 億美元。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

And just to confirm -- and thank you for those answers, but just to confirm, no current plans to retire any ships in 2014 or 2015?

只是為了確認一下——感謝您的回答，但只是為了確認一下，目前沒有計劃在 2014 年或 2015 年退役任何船舶？

Not making any announcements today.

今天沒有發布任何公告。

Yes, no announcements.

是的，沒有公告。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tim Conder, Wells Fargo Securities.

蒂姆·康德，富國銀行證券公司。

Thank you, and for all the color you given so far.

謝謝你，也謝謝你迄今為止所提供的所有顏色。

Just a couple of other items here.

這裡只是其他一些項目。

Can you just re-frame for us -- I think Costa yields in 2012 were down 15%.

您能否為我們重新構建一下——我認為 Costa 2012 年的收益率下降了 15%。

You have stated that before and then we had some recovery.

你之前說過，然後我們有了一些恢復。

Can you remind us the recovery we have seen by year in Costa, and then just how the Carnival brand yield is impacted for the full -- or impacted for the full year?

您能否提醒我們科斯塔逐年看到的複蘇，以及嘉年華品牌產量對全年或全年的影響如何？

Sure.

當然。

Costa, you are right.

科斯塔，你說得對。

It was down about 15% in 2012, and the recovery was 4% in 2013, and we do expect to see continued recovery in 2014.

2012 年下降了約 15%，2013 年回升了 4%，我們預計 2014 年將繼續回升。

The Carnival yields, keep in mind, that the first-half for, and particularly the first quarter for Carnival Cruise Lines was very strong.

請記住，嘉年華郵輪公司的上半年，尤其是第一季度的業績非常強勁。

So the yields for the year were down like in the mid single-digits.

因此，今年的收益率下降了大約個位數。

The back half of the year was obviously a tad higher than that.

下半年的情況顯然比這要高一些。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And then Arnold, you have talked about multiple initiatives here.

然後阿諾德，您在這裡談到了多項舉措。

Not only today, but prior and sounds like there is more detail still coming.

不僅是今天，之前也是如此，聽起來還有更多細節即將公佈。

If we back up and as you had some time now to frame everything, is there any I guess, guesstimate at this point as to what new normalized costs ex-fuel would be on a go forward basis?

如果我們支持，並且您現在有一些時間來構建一切，我是否有任何猜測，猜測目前不包括燃料的新的標準化成本將是多少？

And I guess, relative to where they were in 2011, so pre Concordia?

我想，相對於 2011 年的情況，是康考迪亞之前的情況嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I would say that, the comment David made earlier about keeping costs flat to half of inflation is the best guidance we can give at this point.

我想說的是，大衛之前關於將成本保持在通貨膨脹一半的評論是我們目前可以給出的最佳指導。

But clearly, we are just beginning the process of building on the base of collaboration that existed across the brands, and expanding on that significantly with incentives, with processes, et cetera in place to capitalize on it.

但顯然，我們剛剛開始在各個品牌之間建立合作的基礎，並通過激勵措施、流程等來充分利用這一基礎，從而顯著擴展這一基礎。

And as we find those opportunities and execute against them, we will share it along the way, and the picture will reveal itself over time.

當我們發現這些機會並針對它們執行時，我們將一路分享，隨著時間的推移，情況將自行顯現。

But at this point, we do not have a new target set or anything of that sort.

但目前，我們還沒有設定新的目標或任何類似的東西。

Okay.

好的。

And then lastly, if you could give a little more color on what was going on in the other North American premium brands?

最後，您是否可以對其他北美高端品牌的情況進行更多說明？

You called that out in your preamble that there were a little bit of pressures there.

您在序言中指出存在一些壓力。

Just a little more color on that, please?

請再多加一點顏色好嗎？

There is a combination of factors that have affected both Holland America and Princess.

影響荷美郵輪和公主郵輪的因素有很多。

Part of it is a portion of their business is sourced from Europe, where in 2013 the consumer base was a bit weaker than it had been in the past and significantly weaker.

部分原因是他們的部分業務來自歐洲，2013 年歐洲的消費者基礎比過去稍弱，而且明顯疲軟。

It is also fair to say that there has been a significant supply increase in the premium segment in some areas in recent years, and our brands were coming from above industry level performance in a number of the segments they participate in, and are -- continue to be above industry in a number of the segments.

公平地說，近年來，某些領域的高端細分市場的供應量顯著增加，我們的品牌在其參與的許多細分市場中的表現均高於行業水平，並且——繼續在多個細分領域領先於行業。

So on a year-to-year comparison, I think those are some of the contributors and there are others.

因此，在逐年比較中，我認為這些是一些貢獻者，還有其他貢獻者。

At the same time the team is working very hard to stimulate demand and improve it, and we are very pleased with the response we are seeing right now in the booking volumes, and particularly in Europe, and we are very high on our premium brand.

與此同時，團隊正在努力刺激需求並改善需求，我們對目前預訂量（尤其是歐洲）的反應感到非常滿意，我們對我們的優質品牌非常看重。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Merry Christmas.

聖誕節快樂。

Happy holidays to everyone.

祝大家節日快樂。

Merry Christmas, thank you.

聖誕快樂，謝謝。

Patrick Scholes, SunTrust.

帕特里克·斯科爾斯，SunTrust。

Good morning.

早上好。

There was a pretty negative investigative report out from CNN this week concerning the Triumph.

本週，美國有線電視新聞網 (CNN) 發布了一份關於凱旋的相當負面的調查報導。

I wonder if you have any type of official response to that report?

不知道您對此報導有何官方回應？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, I think the -- first of all, the language quoted on the network that did it, is not from our ticket contract.

嗯，我認為——首先，網絡上引用的語言並非來自我們的門票合同。

They pulled some information out of context, from a motion to dismiss the suit.

他們斷章取義地從駁回訴訟的動議中提取了一些信息。

It is a frivolous suit.

這是一套輕浮的西裝。

We stand behind our products.

我們支持我們的產品。

We stood behind it after the Triumph incident.

凱旋事件後我們支持它。

We immediately refunded passengers their cruise fare.

我們立即向乘客退還了遊輪費用。

We gave them a future cruise.

我們為他們提供了未來的巡航。

We arranged for food and lodging and transportation, and we gave each passenger an additional $500 to cover expenses.

我們安排了食宿和交通，並額外給了每位乘客500美元的費用。

Our ships are safe.

我們的船很安全。

They are sound, and they are seaworthy, and we have always stood behind our products, and we will continue to do so.

它們性能良好，適航，我們一直支持我們的產品，並將繼續這樣做。

But it is a frivolous suit.

但這是一套輕浮的西裝。

I am disappointed it got any airtime whatsoever.

我很失望它沒有播出。

And again, even with that, it was still mischaracterized on air.

即便如此，它在廣播中仍然被錯誤地描述。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for more color on that.

感謝您對此提供更多顏色。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

James Hollins, Investec.

詹姆斯·霍林斯，天達集團。

Two questions for me, please.

請問我兩個問題。

The first one is on the scrubbing technology.

第一個是關於擦洗技術。

I was wondering if these sort of technology you are putting in now would actually erase any issues around the stricter emission control area compliance, coming I believe in 2015?

我想知道你們現在採用的這類技術是否真的能消除圍繞更嚴格的排放控制區域合規性的任何問題，我相信在 2015 年會出現？

I think you had previously guided that maybe being $265 million extra cost in 2015.

我想您之前曾指導過 2015 年可能會增加 2.65 億美元的額外成本。

I was wondering if that is now sort of lower than that?

我想知道現在是否比這個低一些？

And the second one is a more generic question, which you can choose to answer in anyway you like, Arnold.

第二個是一個更通用的問題，阿諾德，你可以選擇以你喜歡的方式回答。

But are there sort of changes you are putting through now -- obviously you have been there six months, are they -- should we consider them as sort of incremental changes to bring down the cost base?

但是，您現在正在經歷一些變化嗎？顯然您已經在那里呆了六個月了，是嗎？我們是否應該將它們視為一種漸進式變化，以降低成本基礎？

Or are you sort a starting a more fundamental cultural change within the group, which should see quite a few changes in the way the actual business operates?

或者您是否打算在集團內進行更根本的文化變革，這應該會導致實際業務運營方式發生相當大的變化？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, I think I will answer the latter part first, and then we will get to your energy question.

是的，我想我會先回答後一部分，然後我們再討論你的能源問題。

But with regards to the culture, it is a fundamental change in culture, but it is building on things that the leaders and the organization were kind of doing one-off or in pairs occasionally anyway, and that is collaborating and coordinating.

但就文化而言，這是文化上的根本性變革，但它是建立在領導者和組織一次性或偶爾成對進行的事情之上的，那就是協作和協調。

Okay?

好的？

And so, that is a culture change though, because the brands were fiercely independent in the past, and even protected information from each other.

因此，這是一種文化變革，因為這些品牌在過去是非常獨立的，甚至互相保護信息。

And so, it is absolutely a culture change.

因此，這絕對是一種文化變革。

Now in terms of the fundamental changes in how we work or the scale of targets and that sort of thing, the reality is we just have scale.

現在，就我們工作方式或目標規模等方面的根本變化而言，現實是我們只是有規模。

So with 78 million passenger cruise days, little tiny changes add up to significant dollars, tens and tens of millions, and hundreds of millions of dollars.

因此，在 7800 萬乘客郵輪日中，微小的變化加起來就可以帶來巨大的美元、數千萬甚至數億美元的損失。

And so, while they are small changes, they yield big impact.

因此，雖然它們是微小的變化，但它們產生了巨大的影響。

And by working together, communicating, collaborating, there is so many arenas that the team has already pre-identified.

通過一起工作、溝通、協作，團隊已經預先確定了很多領域。

And as I mentioned, we are in the process of sizing those, and prioritizing them from a complexity investment required, time to realization, all your normal things you would apply to prioritize projects, and go after them.

正如我所提到的，我們正在確定這些項目的規模，並從所需的複雜性投資、實現時間、您將應用的所有正常事項來確定項目的優先級，並繼續進行項目。

So there are significant opportunities.

因此，存在重大機遇。

But with regards to the energy, I will let David make a few comments as well.

但關於能量，我也會讓大衛發表一些評論。

But first of all, I want to say that absolutely the scrubber technology helps us mitigate a lot of the emissions standard costs that were referred to earlier.

但首先，我想說的是，洗滌器技術絕對可以幫助我們減輕前面提到的許多排放標準成本。

And in fact, with the scrubber technology, we will be well above the emissions standards without having to burn in many instances, the higher grade fuel, which will clearly will mitigate those costs.

事實上，借助洗滌器技術，我們將遠遠高於排放標準，而在許多情況下無需燃燒更高等級的燃料，這顯然將減輕這些成本。

But I think David had a couple of other comments.

但我認為大衛還有其他一些評論。

Yes.

是的。

The testing on the scrubber is it still is very positive, and everything seems to be going very well.

對洗滌器的測試仍然非常積極，一切似乎都進展順利。

We are in the process of updating that calculation that you mentioned, where last year we disclosed the $265 million impact.

我們正在更新您提到的計算結果，去年我們披露了 2.65 億美元的影響。

At this point, it is fair to say that more than the majority of that $265 million will disappear, so the number will be less than half.

此時，可以公平地說，這 2.65 億美元中的大部分將消失，因此這個數字將不到一半。

But it is a little early for me to give the exact number.

但現在給出確切的數字還為時過早。

It is a complicated calculation that looks at all 101 ships, and looks at the itineraries in 2014 that we have out there, and we will disclose some more details in our 10-K.

這是一項複雜的計算，涉及所有 101 艘船，以及我們現有的 2014 年行程，我們將在 10-K 中披露更多細節。

But it is fair to say, it's more than the majority will disappear.

但可以公平地說，這不僅僅是大多數會消失。

We have time, Kelly, for two more questions.

凱利，我們還有時間再問兩個問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sharon Zackfia, William Blair.

莎朗·扎克菲亞，威廉·布萊爾。

Good morning.

早上好。

Just a few questions.

只是幾個問題。

I guess, first on fuel costs, if you could talk about what you expect for that fuel cost per metric ton for the full-year, I think that would be helpful.

我想，首先是關於燃料成本，如果您能談談您對全年每噸燃料成本的預期，我認為這會有所幫助。

And then at the event in November, you had talked about a few things, including web traffic improving for the Carnival brand through November.

然後在 11 月份的活動中，您談到了一些事情，包括嘉年華品牌在 11 月份期間網絡流量的改善。

I am just curious whether that has continued into December?

我只是好奇這種情況是否會持續到12月？

And if there are any corollaries to the marketing message you have been broadcasting for Carnival that -- or learnings that you could extrapolate to the other brands, in terms of their marketing philosophy or methodology

如果您為嘉年華傳播的營銷信息有任何推論，或者您可以根據其他品牌的營銷理念或方法來推斷他們的經驗

Okay.

好的。

As far as the fuel price per metric ton, Sharon, it was in the press release.

至於每公噸的燃油價格，莎倫，它在新聞稿中。

The full-year is $650 per metric ton on 3.2 million metric tons.

全年 320 萬噸的成本為每噸 650 美元。

So that is our fuel expense for 2014.

這就是我們 2014 年的燃油費用。

As far as the web traffic is concerned, I personally haven't gotten an update on that.

就網絡流量而言，我個人還沒有得到相關更新。

I will say that we have seen an uptick in overall web bookings from the prior year, a couple of percent.

我想說的是，我們看到整體網絡預訂量比上一年有所上升，增長了幾個百分點。

And as far as the marketing is concerned --

就營銷而言——

What was the question?

問題是什麼？

Sharon, can you repeat the marketing question?

莎倫，你能重複一下營銷問題嗎？

(Multiple Speakers).

（多個發言者）。

Yes.

是的。

So it seems like you have had some success with the Carnival marketing, and I am just curious whether there are any learnings from what you have done with Carnival that could be extrapolated to the other brands?

看來你們在嘉年華營銷方面取得了一些成功，我只是好奇你們在嘉年華方面所做的事情是否有任何經驗教訓可以推廣到其他品牌？

I think two things.

我認為有兩件事。

One is a little early to tell, but I would say that I think the marketing, the advertising campaign for Carnival helped all brands, our and others in the industry as well.

雖然現在下結論有點早，但我想說的是，我認為嘉年華的營銷和廣告活動幫助了所有品牌，包括我們的品牌和業內的其他品牌。

Even though it was for us Carnival specific, it gave a general cruise message as well, and I think it helped everyone.

儘管它是針對我們嘉年華的，但它也傳達了一般性的郵輪信息，我認為它對每個人都有幫助。

Each of the brands have their own particular marketing approach.

每個品牌都有自己獨特的營銷方式。

They are all investing heavily in that, and we expect to see good results across the brands from their individual efforts.

他們都在這方面投入了大量資金，我們期望通過他們的個人努力看到各個品牌取得良好的成果。

And just as a follow-up, David -- just so you know, I don't think that table was actually included for the full-year for fuel prices and so on.

作為後續行動，大衛 - 只是讓你知道，我認為該表實際上並未包含全年的燃油價格等。

Oh, wait.

等一下。

Now I see it.

現在我明白了。

Never mind.

沒關係。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

No problem.

沒問題。

We make that mistake once in a while.

我們偶爾會犯這樣的錯誤。

(Laughter).

（笑聲）。

All right.

好的。

Last question, please, Kelly?

最後一個問題，凱莉？

Richard Carter, Deutsche Bank.

理查德·卡特，德意志銀行。

A couple of questions, please.

請教幾個問題。

Firstly on marketing, do you see the step up in marketing costs this year as recurring, or do you see a potential for them to step back down in 2015?

首先在營銷方面，您認為今年的營銷成本是否會反复上漲，或者您是否認為 2015 年營銷成本有可能下降？

And then secondly, on onboard spend, is it possible -- I think it was up 4% in Q4.

其次，機上支出是否有可能——我認為第四季度增長了 4%。

Can you break that down between North America and Europe?

你能把北美和歐洲分開嗎？

And it has obviously been improving now the last couple of quarters, and some of your competitors have seen come very strong onboard spend inflection in the last couple quarters.

在過去的幾個季度中，情況顯然已經有所改善，並且您的一些競爭對手在過去的幾個季度中已經看到了非常強勁的船上支出變化。

So could you just talk a little bit about what is driving that as well please?

那麼您能談談是什麼推動了這一點嗎？

And if you can, what your expectation and outlook is for onboard spend going into 2014?

如果可以的話，您對 2014 年的船上支出有何期望和展望？

So on the marketing spend going into 2015, obviously, we will look at the results we get in 2014.

因此，對於 2015 年的營銷支出，顯然我們將關注 2014 年的結果。

We will make an assessment of whether [pulse] spending is the proper way to go in some of the brands.

我們將評估[脈衝]支出是否是某些品牌的正確方式。

And so, it would be premature now to predict exactly what would occur in 2015.

因此，現在準確預測 2015 年會發生什麼還為時過早。

But what I can assure you is that we will invest.

但我可以向你保證的是我們會投資。

We will learn from the investment, and we will continue to invest when we believe we get a return for it.

我們將從投資中學習，當我們相信能獲得回報時，我們將繼續投資。

And so, if we invest more heavily in the future, we would anticipate that it would be driving additional profits to the bottom line, and more than likely yield as well at the ALBD level.

因此，如果我們在未來加大投資力度，我們預計它將帶來額外的利潤，並且很可能在 ALBD 水平上帶來額外的利潤。

So that would be the comment on that.

這就是對此的評論。

And David is trying to look up the other --

大衛正試圖查找另一個——

On the onboard spend, overall for 2012, we were just up 0.5%.

就船上支出而言，2012 年總體而言，我們僅增長了 0.5%。

I mean, the fourth quarter in constant dollars was up 1.2%.

我的意思是，按固定匯率計算，第四季度增長了 1.2%。

And I think I had said previously that the fourth quarter was driven by about a 2% increase in EAA, and that was tempered by the North American yields being flat.

我想我之前曾說過，第四季度是由 EAA 增長約 2% 推動的，而北美收益率持平則緩和了這一增長。

Flat in the fourth quarter for North America was an improvement I had indicated over the third quarter, so the trend seems to be in the right direction.

北美第四季度持平是我在第三季度所指出的改善，因此趨勢似乎朝著正確的方向發展。

Given where we were for 2013, what we built into the 2014 guidance was yields up a little over 1% We are doing lots of different things on the onboard revenue side to boost that number up.

考慮到我們 2013 年的情況，我們在 2014 年指導中的目標是收益率略高於 1%。我們正在船上收入方面採取許多不同的措施來提高這一數字。

Our operating companies, some of them are continuing to roll out the drink program -- the all-inclusive drink program, the high end photography, and other things.

我們的運營公司，其中一些正在繼續推出飲料計劃——全包飲料計劃、高端攝影等等。

So we are looking to see better yields, and I hope we can beat that number.

因此，我們希望看到更好的收益率，我希望我們能夠打破這個數字。

I want to thank everyone for your support and interest in our Company, and thank you for being on the call.

我要感謝大家對我們公司的支持和興趣，並感謝您接聽電話。

A sincere happy holidays to everybody.

祝大家節日快樂。

Kelly, thank you very much.

凱莉，非常感謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for your participation, and ask that you please disconnect your line.

我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。