Cabot Corp (CBT) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Cabot Corporation second-quarter 2016 earnings conference call.

(Operator Instructions)

As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Erica McLaughlin, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Thanks, Candace.

Good afternoon.

I'd like to welcome you to the Cabot Corporation earnings teleconference.

Last night, we released results for our second-quarter FY16, copies of which are posted in the Investor Relations section of our website.

For those on our mailing list, you received the press release by email.

If you are not on our mailing list and are interested in receiving this information in the future, please contact Investor Relations.

The slide deck that accompanies this call is also available in the Investor Relations portion of our website and will be available in conjunction with the replay of the call.

I remind you that our conversation today will include forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and Cabot's actual results may differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.

A list of factors that could affect Cabot's actual results can be found in the press release we issued last night and are discussed more fully in the reports we file with the Securities and Exchange Committee -- Commission, particularly in our last annual report on Form 10-K.

These filings can be found in the Investor Relations portion of our website.

I will now turn the call over to Sean Keohane, who will discuss the key highlights of the Company's performance.

Eddie Cordeiro will review the business segment and corporate financial details.

Following this, Sean will provide closing comments and open the floor to questions.

Sean?

Thank you, Erica, and good morning -- good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

I'm happy to be with you today to talk about our quarterly earnings performance.

For those of you that I have not met, I look forward to getting to know you.

I have been with Cabot for 14 years and have run both our Reinforcement Materials and Performance Chemical segments.

I know firsthand what an extraordinary Company Cabot is, and I'm excited to lead this great Company.

As you know, we have scheduled an Investor Day later this month where I plan to talk through my vision and strategy for Cabot.

We will also provide an update and outlook for each segment as well as cover capital allocation priorities and other financial topics.

I'm looking forward to this event and I hope to meet many of you there.

Today, I will focus on discussing the highlights from our second quarter and our outlook for 2016.

I am pleased to see an improvement in operating results, both on a year-over-year and sequential basis.

Key factors in realizing this improvement were the cost reductions from restructuring actions that were implemented earlier this year and the results of our commercial activities across the segments that favorably impacted volumes, margins, and product mix.

The Performance Chemical segment delivered its fourth consecutive quarter of record earnings.

This segment has been performing extremely well for some time, reflecting the specialty nature of the products sold across a broad range of applications and customers.

Through commitment to our differentiation strategy, we have been able to improve margins and upgrade our product mix, while also growing volumes and implementing fixed-cost reductions.

I'm also pleased to see our Reinforcement Materials EBIT improved, both on a year-over-year and sequential basis.

This improvement came primarily from the outcome of our 2016 contract negotiations, where we were able to regain share in North America and upgrade our product mix globally.

In addition, we generated over $100 million in cash from operating activities and used this strong cash flow generation to reinvest in our businesses and return cash to shareholders.

We invested $28 million in capital expenditures in the quarter, while returning cash to shareholders through $14 million of dividends and repurchasing 106,000 shares for $5 million.

I will now turn it over to Eddie to discuss the financial results in more detail.

Eddie?

Okay.

Thanks, Sean.

I will discuss the segment results, beginning with the Reinforcement Materials segment.

During the second quarter of 2016, EBIT for Reinforcement Materials increased by $7 million as compared to the second quarter of 2015.

The increase in EBIT was principally due to higher unit margins driven by an improved customer and product mix in calendar year 2016.

We also experienced a benefit from foreign currency, which was primarily due to the favorable impact of changes in currencies in South America, such as the Brazilian real.

We made the decision to move to US dollar-based pricing in Brazil at the end of 2015 in order to maintain our US dollar margins.

The changes in the real, as compared to last year, were favorable on our fixed cost, resulting in a benefit to the P&L.

As we indicated during last quarter's call, feedstock continued to be a headwind in the quarter due to the unfavorable comparison of feedstock differentials and lower benefits generated from our energy-efficiency investments.

These unfavorable feedstock effects, however, were offset by the non-reoccurrence of the high-cost inventory flow-through issue that we experienced in the prior year.

Volumes were 1% lower during the second quarter of FY16 as compared to the second quarter of FY15.

Volumes in the Americas decreased, as higher contractual volumes in North America were offset by lower demand in South America due to challenging market conditions.

Asia volumes improved, mainly from higher volumes in China, while European volumes were flat, as compared to last year.

Our capacity utilization remained in the 75% to 80% range in the second quarter.

Sequentially, Reinforcement Materials EBIT increased by $8 million, compared to the first quarter of FY16, driven by higher volumes and lower fixed costs.

Sequentially, volumes increased by 1%, as higher volumes in North America and Europe were partially offset by lower volumes in South America and Asia.

Looking ahead for FY16, we continue to project volume growth in the second half of the year.

The feedstock differentials that have been impacting us since last year have moderated, and we anticipate diminished impact in the second half of 2016.

Thus, all in all, we expect stronger performance in the second half of the year for Reinforcement Materials.

Now turning to Performance Chemicals, EBIT increased by $16 million, as compared to the second quarter of 2015, due to an improved product mix and lower variable and fixed costs.

Volumes increased by 1% in both Specialty Carbons and Formulations, and Metal Oxides, primarily driven by growth in the Specialty Carbons and Fumed Metal Oxides product lines in Europe and China.

Sequentially, EBIT increased by $8 million, due to higher volumes and improved margins from lower raw materials costs and improved product mix.

Volumes increased 5% in Specialty Carbons and Formulations, and 8% in Metal Oxides, primarily from stronger seasonal demand.

Looking ahead, we expect to sustain our strong results as we continue to achieve -- continue to actively manage margins and costs, and drive the penetration of new, high-value products.

Second-quarter FY16 EBIT in Purification Solutions decreased by $3 million, compared to the second quarter of FY15 due to an $8 million unfavorable impact from reducing inventory levels, as compared to the prior year, and lower unit margins.

These effects were partially offset by higher volumes and lower fixed costs from our cost-savings initiatives.

Sequentially, Purification Solutions EBIT increased by $3 million, compared to the first quarter of FY16, driven by higher volumes and improved plant-utilization levels.

Higher volumes, compared to both respective periods, were driven by demand from the MATS regulation.

Compliance with the regulation was required during April, and demand started to pick up during the second fiscal quarter.

However, volumes were hampered somewhat by the low price of natural gas, which has caused a decrease in coal-fired electricity generation in favor of natural gas.

Notwithstanding the natural gas headwind, we still expect a significant increase in MATS-related demand for our products.

We will continue to reduce inventory levels for the remainder of the year and expect a similar year-over-year P&L impact in the second half of the year.

Overall, we anticipate that profitability will improve in the second half of the year, driven by higher volumes from MATS-related demand and seasonal increases.

Second-quarter FY16 EBIT in Specialty Fluids decreased by $1 million as compared to the second quarter of FY15, and $2 million as compared to the first quarter of FY16.

This segment continued to be impacted by a low level of project activity due to the downturn of the oil and gas industry.

As we look ahead, we have broadened our marketing efforts into Asia and the Middle East, and we're seeing some positive momentum into the third quarter.

We are currently seeing an increase in project activity with projects already underway.

We expect this pipeline of projects to continue strengthening as we move through the remainder of FY16.

I will now turn to corporate items.

We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $178 million and our liquidity position remained strong at $1.2 billion.

During the second quarter, we generated $117 million of adjusted EBITDA and reduced net working capital by $16 million.

Uses of cash during the second quarter included $28 million for capital expenditures, $14 million for dividends, and $5 million for share repurchases.

We recorded a net tax position of $11 million for the second quarter, which included $4 million of benefits from tax-related certain items.

Excluding the impact of certain items, our operating tax rate of continuing operations for the first quarter was 25%.

As expected, we also recorded a $2 million benefit related to our LIFO accounting reserve, principally driven by the decline in feedstock costs.

Based on the current outlook for feedstock and our anticipated inventory levels, we expect a $9 million benefit for the year, reported ratably each quarter.

If feedstock costs move up or down from where they are forecasted to end the fiscal year, this estimate could change.

As we look towards 2016, we expect capital expenditures to be approximately $125 million.

We anticipate our operating tax rate for FY16 will be between 25% and 26%.

And I will now turn the call back over to Sean.

Thanks, Eddie.

As you saw in the press release yesterday, we began the year with a target of $0.75 of adjusted EPS improvement over last year.

Midway through the year, we are on track with cost reductions.

The Performance Chemical segment is maintaining strong margins and the Purification Solutions segment is benefiting from the implementation of MATS.

However, with greater visibility into the second half of the year, we continue to face a number of challenges, including the timing of certain oil and gas projects in our Specialty Fluid segment, a more pronounced impact from low natural gas prices on our Purification Solutions segment, and persistent competitive pressures in China and South America in our Reinforcement Materials segment.

As a result, we anticipate that we will not achieve the target of $0.75 of adjusted EPS improvement.

However, with current positive momentum, we expect a significantly stronger second half of the year, and currently see FY16 adjusted EPS in the range of $3.05 to $3.25, which represents a double-digit percentage increase year over year.

This includes an outlook for stronger volumes across the segments.

Reinforcement Materials volumes are expected to grow in both North America and Europe.

Performance Chemicals will strengthen in various automotive applications.

Purification Solutions volume growth will come from mass compliance and seasonal increases.

And Specialty Fluids is expected to see an increased level of project activity.

The stronger volumes, along with continuing to realize cost savings, will contribute to earnings growth in the second half of FY16, as compared to the prior year and the first half of this year.

In addition, we continue to drive strong cash flow generation through our EBITDA growth and discipline around capital spending and net working capital.

We will continue to prioritize returning cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

Thank you very much for joining us today, and I will now turn the call back over for our question-and-answer session.

(Operator Instructions)

Ivan Marcuse, KeyBanc.

Great.

Thanks for taking my questions.

The first one is in the Reinforcement business in the Americas.

How much of the -- how much was the North America up versus South America?

And I understand you gained some market share this year, did that -- was that part of why it was up?

Or was the overall market down or how would you describe this or the, I guess, puts and takes there?

Sure, Ivan.

So you are right on here, in North America we did essentially recover our market share in 2016.

Although that was partially offset by the fact that we had weakness in South America, in particular Brazil, as the economic environment deteriorated there.

So we are in fact seeing what we communicated in earlier calls around the North America contract negotiations.

So was the market in North America, the underlying market, was it up or down?

Market was up modestly, is our view, in the low single digits, 1% to 2% is our view of market growth.

Okay, great.

And then with oil prices starting to move higher, did you see any towards the end of the quarter or I guess looking at this past month, April, any sort of pre-buying in both the Performance and Reinforcement before maybe a sort of the headline higher prices start to flow through?

That will benefit of volumes?

We have not seen any material impact from that.

The place where at times we do see oil-related moves are in Performance Chemicals where generally polymers move with oil prices.

And often you can see some pipeline effects as customers either pre-buying or hold off in anticipation of falling polymer prices.

But that being said, we haven't seen any material impact from that in the recent period.

Okay and then the last question and I will get back into the queue.

How much cost savings helped out this quarter?

Of sort of the $55 million or so that you have laid out, how much have we achieved so far in the first half and what should the cadence of that cost savings be on a year-over-year impact as we move to the second half?

So we are, Ivan, on track with our cost savings that we had previously communicated.

Fixed costs, you'll remember that on a full-year basis was the $55 million.

Fixed cost in the quarter were about $13 million lower in Q2 versus last year.

There were some one-time benefits last year in Reinforcement Materials that masks about another $5 million, but bottom line is this puts us on the run rate that we were expecting so we are in fact fully on track here.

Okay, thanks.

James Sheehan, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

Thanks.

Could you give us some more color on the competitive pressure you are seeing in China and South America?

Is that mostly pricing pressure in the spot, the tight markets and how do you expect that to play out in the second half of the fiscal year?

Sure.

Hi, James.

So maybe I will make a couple of comments first on China and then share a bit of context around South America, as well.

In terms of China, our volumes have held up relatively well and we saw volume growth year-over-year.

And this has been driven mainly by increases in passenger car tires due to growth in both the car park as well as automotive production, assembly production, in part helped by some government tax incentives.

So the strength of the passenger car or PCR market has been pretty good but partially offset by weakness in the truck tire market as the Chinese market in construction and infrastructure has slowed.

But we did in fact see the expected significant step up in demand after Chinese New Year and are seeing stronger volumes as we head into Q3 where there is no holiday period.

So overall, pleased to see the demand recovering.

The competitive pressure in China is still pretty high so we are working hard to balance volume and pricing and I think doing a pretty good job achieving that.

I think on South America, of course you are well aware, the economic environment has deteriorated there quite a bit and I don't see any cause for immediate step up there.

But that being said, it is a market where we have a fair amount of contracted business and have secured significant parts of the customer portfolio through 2016 so we'll just have to see as the economy develops there how demand picks up.

Great.

And in Purification you mentioned having similar inventory impacts.

What would your expectation be for operating earnings in that segment in the second half inclusive of these inventory impacts?

So maybe I'll just take a step back, James, and just give a bit of context around the inventory builds and draws in this business and put it into strategic context.

So over the last two years we have been building inventory in anticipation of the MATS implementation to avoid the need for additional capital investments to increase capacity.

And so we had benefited in 2015 from building inventory and we have started to draw down that inventory this year.

So year-to-date on a year-over-year basis the impact is about $15 million.

We continue -- anticipate continuing to draw down inventory for the rest of the year and so therefore expect a similar level of unfavorable year-over-year comparisons.

However, the additional volumes and margin from MATS-related demand should drive an improvement in EBIT results in the second half of the year and we expect that to be a meaningful step up.

Great.

And on your earnings guidance for the full year you mentioned that you expect some volume tailwinds in order to achieve that.

If we were to have no volume growth, or I should say if you don't have any tailwinds that all, do you still think that you can achieve the bottom end of the range?

So the range takes into account the many uncertainties as we move through the year, such as volumes as you point out, across the regions and segments as well as feedstock cost, natural gas prices and currencies.

As I think about the range, the high end of the range would include stronger volume as well as feedstock and natural gas prices and currencies remaining relatively close to where we are today.

The lower end of the range would take into account the fact that feedstock, natural gas and currency would move in a way that's unfavorable or that volumes might develop a bit more slowly.

But based on everything we know today and we see today, I feel confident that this range is where we should be for the full year.

Thank you.

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

Hello, good afternoon.

This is actually Jermaine Brown sitting in for David Begleiter.

Sean, in Reinforcement Materials, can you provide some color on the state of the inventory channel for tires?

So I think most of the tire makers have worked down inventory.

Certainly as we go back over the past year to 18 months with -- in particular in the US with the implementation of anti-dumping duties on Chinese tires, we certainly saw the channel was stopped in anticipation of those anti-dumping duties being implemented.

That being said, our discussions with tire customers would show that, that has largely been worked off and so we are probably operating more around the sort of natural or true levels of tire inventories right now.

There is some concern about -- with anti-dumping duties against truck tires out of China that, that could cause the same phenomenon to happen again.

But I think we are probably closer to natural inventory levels than certainly we were over the last 18 months or so as those passenger car duties were implemented.

Understood.

And within Specialty Fluids with oil coming off their lows are you seeing any change in project activity and within that segment when do you expect earnings to breakeven?

Are you forecasting 2017 or beyond that?

So a good question here.

We have definitely been seeing less project activity for the last year in this business as oil companies have been delaying projects and managing cost and so this did result in roughly breakeven levels of profitability for this business.

But we do expect some modest recovery in the second half of the year based on projects we have been selected for and that are scheduled here in the next few months.

We have spent a lot of time really broadening our marketing efforts to Asia and the Middle East over the past couple of years but these well developments, as I think you know, can take several years but we now see some of these projects coming online.

So we are sitting here now seeing some positive momentum in Q3 and as we commented early in the speech we already have several jobs underway so this will result in a step up in EBIT in Q3.

Understood.

Thank you very much.

Kevin Hocevar, Northcoast.

Good afternoon, everybody.

I wondered if you could -- I believe you had some pricing actions in Europe in Reinforcement Materials that recently took effect to help mitigate this differential of issues, so wondering if you can give us some commentary on how that's going are any benefits from this baked into your guidance?

Sure.

So as you point out, Kevin, we announced price increases in Europe to address the feedstock differentials and the dislocation in the market there.

Let me just put into context those price increases.

So they were announced in Europe and impacting about 15%, 1-5 percent of our volumes that are not under contract and so I would say those discussions with customers are going pretty well as this issue is understood and in my eyes this is really a structural issue that has to be dealt with.

But it's on a relatively small portion of the volume that is not yet under contract.

We do certainly expect to introduce this issue into contract discussions for calendar year 2017 in Europe and I think we will consider other regions as it makes sense.

Okay.

And you mentioned the differentials issue to mitigating a bit -- you expect that to mitigate a bit in the back half of the year.

So can you give us some type of indication of how that trend is?

Is that mitigating because the comps are getting easier or is it actually also sequentially getting better?

And can you give us an idea of the magnitude, too, of the impact during the quarter or the first half of the year or however you want to put it and how you expect that to change in the back half?

So I think there's not been much change here, Kevin, to what we discussed last quarter in regards to this.

So maybe a bit of context as a reminder here.

Certainly for the US Gulf Coast feedstock in 2015 during the year we saw that the differentials increase throughout the year, so getting worse throughout the year, due principally to supply demand factors.

At this time, as we look at the US Gulf Coast we see that the differentials are in line, or more in line, with the historical norms, the long-term historical norms, which means they are more favorable than the peak of 2015 but not as favorable as the full-year average of 2015.

Now while that is the US Gulf Coast, I think it's important to remember we purchased a mix of feedstocks globally including US Gulf Coast decant oil but also Chinese coal tars and fuel oils from multiple refineries and ethylene crackers.

And so through our strategy in this business and our global footprint, we really do try to take advantage of feedstock arbitrages whenever possible but there are a lot of factors at play here and these differentials certainly have gone against us through 2015 and into 2016.

That being said, the differentials have been impacting us here have moderated and we anticipate a diminished impact in the second half of the year.

I think that's the best way to look at it and probably about as specific as we want to comment on that at this time.

Okay.

And then just a final question with oil bouncing back up to -- from the lows up to $45-ish, do you expect that to impact the operating margins at all in Specialty -- Performance Chemicals?

Because I know the margins there have really benefited from price raws so I'm just curious if oil bouncing off its lows, do you expect that to mitigate that expansion that we have seen or do you think you can pass along price pretty much in line with those raw material movements?

I think that that movement will depend in some way, I think, on rate and magnitude of change in oil as well as competitive dynamics and so those are always in play but, that being said, this segment, Performance Chemicals, is performing extremely well, it is resilient and really a truly differentiated business with products that are quite sticky.

So as I look ahead I think the strong performance will continue but I think the profitability can always be impacted by product mix in any particular quarter or the timing of maintenance turnarounds, things like that.

But I'd expect that performance in and around this level to continue at this point.

Okay great thank you very much.

(Operator Instructions)

Chris Kapsch, BB&T Capital Markets.

Good afternoon.

Just a follow-up on the feedstock discussion.

You mentioned it has moderated here sequentially, I'm just wondering, and you provide some context, but where has it moderated?

Are you talking about just in the US or has it really moderated in other regions as well?

Hi, Chris.

Well, certainly the most it visible evidence of the moderation has been in the US, as I commented earlier.

We are still seeing some impacts in other parts of the world but, again, on balance if you look at the whole basket of feedstocks and, important to remember the fact that not only do we operate with the most global footprint but also have the broadest diet of feedstocks, that there are always puts and takes here.

But if we look across that basket we're definitely seeing on average the basket has moderated and we are expecting a diminished impact in the second half of the year so this is a positive.

Okay.

And if I could just follow-up on then, I guess it's de minimis, but the pricing initiative in Europe, just 15% of our RM so it's selective but the initiative there?

Sort of piggybacking on the feedback discussion.

Now when the feedstock dislocation issue was most acute the last year, going into the calendar contract negotiations at the end of calendar 2015, there was some notion that, led by you, the industry might focus on getting -- altering the pricing mechanisms such that there wasn't this disconnect with the feedstocks.

And in the end basically the industry kind of the abandoned that effort.

Nobody really got pricing.

You guys did get market share back, I guess, in North America.

Now fast-forward into a couple quarters into calendar 2016 here, there's -- the feedstock issue is moderating but there is pricing on the table and then you just guys raised the idea that you might reintroduce this pricing initiative going into next year's contract discussions.

So I'm just trying to reconcile the likelihood of success of that given what happened coming into this year's contract season?

So maybe before I address that question I just want to clarify to make sure that what you said there was accurate.

I think you had mentioned that the amount of volume that is in play in Europe is 15% of RM.

I just want to clarify that 15% of the European Reinforcement Material so just in case there was any misunderstanding there.

But let me try to provide a bit of context here.

So as we head into any negotiating period we're always thinking about the market situation and certainly a lot comes down to competitive dynamics and how things go based on that.

And so certainly all I can really speak about today is the fact that we do see that the differentials here had hurt us and that they have persisted and therefore feel that it's appropriate that we introduce this to the customers and try to deal with the structural issue in the form of pricing.

And as I said, I would expect this issue to be introduced in the contract discussions for 2017.

Okay.

If I could follow up on Purification Solutions.

I just want to understand the inventory drag.

Is that -- did you say $15 million year-to-date and the, basically the penalty there is -- are you -- you have throttled back your manufacturing dramatically so your unit costs are much higher.

Is that -- do I understand that correct?

And if so, also then when would you expect to get your inventories down to a normal level such that you can resume a more normal utilization rate?

Thanks

Sure.

You do have it correct that on a year-to-date basis the year-over-year impact is $15 million through the first half and we do anticipate continuing to draw down inventory for the rest of the year and therefore would expect a similar level of unfavorable year-over-year comparisons in the second half.

And so maybe just stepping back from that a little, and again kind of reminding you of the strategic logic here, we built this inventory in anticipation of MATS and to avoid capital expenditures and we certainly are drawing down that inventory now as we see the volumes from MATS being realized.

So this is good and I think as we head into next year we would certainly expect the year-over-year comparisons to moderate.

So just to clarify that last comment on the timing, so beginning FY17 you think the inventories in PS segment will be more normalized?

Yes, I would say more normalized.

That's right.

Okay.

And then finally, Sean, I don't want to steal thunder from your presentation three weeks from today but is there, in your new role, and congrats by the way, is there any preliminary thought about the portfolio as it exists today?

Anything that you would be thinking about in terms of changes?

Whether you feel like you need to augment one of the existing segments within acquisition or possibly looking at jettisoning one of the segments?

Any preliminary thoughts on the portfolio as it exists today?

Thanks

Sure.

I think those types of questions are probably best left for the Investor Day because I think it will allow us to explore them fully and in the context of the Company strategy and the individual segment strategies.

But I think a couple of initial observations or impressions.

I think certainly I've been with the Company for 14 years and so I know the Company intimately and Cabot is a very strong company.

And we've got leading market positions in all of our businesses and this provides durable long-term growth exposures and there are a lot of macro trends like mobility, energy efficiency, sustainability that these are positive forces on our business.

Whether it's through tires in Reinforcement or batteries and lightweighting in Performance Chemicals or sustainability in Purification Solutions, so we've got a global footprint that I believe is unrivaled and it really provides true exposure to global GDP.

So I think these are great strengths to build from and I'm excited about the future of the Company and certainly look forward to outlining our vision and strategy at the upcoming Investor Day here in a few weeks.

Thank you.

Thank you.

And I'm showing no further questions at this time.

I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Keohane for closing remarks.

Great.

Thanks very much, Candace.

Thank you to everyone for joining us today and I certainly look forward to speaking with you at our Investor Day here later this month.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect.

Have a great day, everyone.