Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Cracker Barrel Fiscal 2023 First Quarter Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

    美好的一天,歡迎來到 Cracker Barrel 2023 財年第一季度電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意正在記錄此事件。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to (inaudible) Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在想將會議轉交給(聽不清)投資者關係副總裁。請繼續。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Cracker Barrel's First Quarter Fiscal 2023 Conference Call and Webcast.

    謝謝你。早上好,歡迎來到 Cracker Barrel 的 2023 財年第一季度電話會議和網絡直播。

  • This morning, we issued a press release announcing our first quarter results. In this press release and on this call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures for the first quarter ended October 28, 2022.

    今天早上,我們發布了一份新聞稿,宣布了我們第一季度的業績。在本新聞稿和此次電話會議中,我們將參考截至 2022 年 10 月 28 日的第一季度的非 GAAP 財務指標。

  • The non-GAAP financial measures are adjusted to exclude the noncash amortization of the asset recognized for the gains on our sale and leaseback transactions, and the related tax impact and expenses related to the proxy contest and settlement in connection with the company's 2022 Annual Meeting of Shareholders.

    非 GAAP 財務措施進行了調整,以排除為我們的售後租回交易收益確認的資產的非現金攤銷,以及與公司 2022 年年度會議有關的代理權競爭和結算相關的稅收影響和費用股東。

  • The company believes that excluding these items from its financial results provides investors with an enhanced understanding of the company's financial performance. This information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for net income or earnings per share information prepared in accordance with GAAP.

    公司認為,將這些項目從其財務業績中剔除可以讓投資者更好地了解公司的財務業績。此信息不應被孤立地考慮或替代根據 GAAP 編制的淨收入或每股收益信息。

  • The last pages of the press release include reconciliations from the non-GAAP information to the GAAP financials. On the call with me this morning are Cracker Barrel's President and CEO, Sandy Cochran; Senior Vice President and CFO, Craig Pommells; and Senior Vice President and CMO, Jen Tate.

    新聞稿的最後幾頁包括從非 GAAP 信息到 GAAP 財務的調節。今天早上和我通電話的是 Cracker Barrel 的總裁兼首席執行官 Sandy Cochran;高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Craig Pommells;高級副總裁兼首席營銷官 Jen Tate。

  • Sandy and Craig will provide a review of the business, financials and outlook. We will then open up the call for questions for Sandy, Craig and Jen. On this call, statements may be made by management of their beliefs and expectations regarding the company's future operating results or expected future events.

    桑迪和克雷格將對業務、財務和前景進行審查。然後,我們將開始向桑迪、克雷格和珍提問。在此次電話會議上,管理層可能會發表他們對公司未來經營業績或預期未來事件的看法和預期。

  • These are known as forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties that, in many cases, are beyond management's control and may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

    這些被稱為前瞻性陳述,其中涉及風險和不確定性,在許多情況下,這些風險和不確定性超出了管理層的控制範圍,並可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異。

  • We caution our listeners and readers in considering forward-looking statements and information. Many of the factors that could affect results are summarized in the cautionary description of risks and uncertainties found at the end of the press release and are described in detail in our reports that we file with or furnish with the SEC.

    我們提醒我們的聽眾和讀者考慮前瞻性陳述和信息。許多可能影響結果的因素在新聞稿末尾對風險和不確定性的警示性描述中進行了總結,並在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交或提供的報告中進行了詳細描述。

  • Finally, the information shared on this call is valid as of today's date, and the company undertakes no obligation to update it, except as may be required under applicable law.

    最後,本次電話會議上分享的信息截至今天有效,公司不承擔更新信息的義務,適用法律可能要求的情況除外。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Cracker Barrel's President and CEO, Sandy Cochran. Sandy?

    我現在將電話轉給 Cracker Barrel 的總裁兼首席執行官 Sandy Cochran。沙?

  • Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

    Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. This morning, we announced total sales growth of 7%. I was pleased with these results, which included comparable store restaurant sales growth of 7.1% and comparable store retail sales growth of 4.3%.

    謝謝大家,早上好。今天早上,我們宣布總銷售額增長 7%。我對這些結果感到滿意,其中包括 7.1% 的可比店面餐廳銷售額增長和 4.3% 的可比店面零售銷售額增長。

  • Our adjusted operating income margin of 3.6% was also within our expectations and reflected the persistently high inflation that we were anticipating during the quarter. While we believe commodity costs will improve over the balance of the year, inflation across the P&L is taking longer to abate than we had originally expected and continues to pressure margins.

    我們調整後的營業利潤率為 3.6%,也在我們的預期之內,反映了我們在本季度預期的持續高通脹。雖然我們認為大宗商品成本將在今年餘下時間有所改善,但整個損益表的通貨膨脹需要比我們原先預期的更長的時間才能消退,並繼續對利潤率構成壓力。

  • Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, our store operations teams are working to deliver a great guest experience, our menu and retail products are resonating with guests, especially those seeking value, and we're tracking to deliver on our strategic initiatives.

    儘管宏觀經濟逆風,我們的門店運營團隊仍在努力提供出色的客戶體驗,我們的菜單和零售產品引起了客戶的共鳴,尤其是那些尋求價值的客戶,我們正在跟踪以實現我們的戰略舉措。

  • I believe these initiatives position us well to navigate the environment and drive improved performance over the rest of the fiscal year and beyond. And now I'd like to speak to some highlights from the first quarter.

    我相信這些舉措使我們能夠很好地駕馭環境,並在本財年剩餘時間及以後推動業績改善。現在我想談談第一季度的一些亮點。

  • From a culinary perspective, we saw positive guest response to the breakfast initiative that we launched this summer and we believe our guests are reacting positively to our strong value proposition and our focus on hospitality.

    從烹飪的角度來看,我們看到了客人對我們今年夏天推出的早餐計劃的積極回應,我們相信我們的客人對我們強大的價值主張和我們對熱情好客的關注做出了積極的反應。

  • Our build-your-own breakfast category and our Strawberry Cheesecake pancakes performed well as did the signature for our chicken platform that we featured in the quarter. Additionally, we saw favorable check mix driven by increased sales of barrel bites, premium sides, desserts and nonalcoholic beverages, and we're happy with the growth that we're seeing with beer and wine.

    我們的自製早餐類別和草莓芝士蛋糕煎餅表現良好,我們在本季度推出的招牌雞肉平台也表現出色。此外,我們看到桶裝飲料、優質配菜、甜點和非酒精飲料的銷量增加推動了有利的支票組合,我們對啤酒和葡萄酒的增長感到滿意。

  • Our retail teams again delivered strong results, especially considering the performance we were lapping in the prior year. We saw growth in our everyday business and in our decor and apparel and accessories categories and our seasonal themes such as harvest and Halloween performed particularly well.

    我們的零售團隊再次取得了強勁的業績,尤其是考慮到我們在前一年的表現。我們的日常業務以及我們的裝飾品、服裝和配飾類別以及我們的季節性主題(例如收穫和萬聖節)表現特別出色。

  • During the quarter, we continued to make progress on key initiatives, and we remain focused on hospitality and the guest experience and I was pleased that we sustained our improvements to our dine-in guest metrics.

    在本季度,我們繼續在關鍵舉措上取得進展,我們仍然專注於款待和賓客體驗,我很高興我們持續改進了就餐賓客指標。

  • From a guest visitation perspective, the most recent data which is for July through September showed some improvement in our visitation by guests that are 65 and older. While this was likely buoyed by our wrapping delta in the prior year, we were encouraged by this result and are cautiously optimistic that we will see further improvements with this cohort over the balance of the year.

    從客人來訪的角度來看,7 月至 9 月的最新數據顯示 65 歲及以上客人的來訪情況有所改善。雖然這可能受到前一年我們的包裝三角洲的提振,但我們對這一結果感到鼓舞,並謹慎樂觀地認為,我們將在今年餘下時間看到這一群體的進一步改善。

  • We also saw visitation gains with younger guests who we believe are responding to our culinary and marketing initiatives and with lower income guests who we believe are responding to our strong value proposition as they navigate the financial pressures of the current economic environment.

    我們還看到年輕客人的訪問量有所增加,我們認為他們對我們的烹飪和營銷計劃做出了回應,而我們認為低收入客人在應對當前經濟環境的財務壓力時對我們強大的價值主張做出了回應。

  • We're gaining traction and strengthening our business model, we remain on track to achieve our $20 million to $25 million cost savings goal in FY '23. Additionally, we expanded the test of our new labor system, which is now in over 140 stores and have been encouraged by the results.

    我們正在獲得牽引力並加強我們的商業模式,我們仍然有望在 23 財年實現 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元的成本節約目標。此外,我們擴大了對新勞動力系統的測試,該系統現已在 140 多家商店中使用,並受到結果的鼓舞。

  • Lastly, Maple Street is making progress towards their new unit target. They opened 3 new locations during Q1, which includes 2 in Texas and 1 in Georgia. Craig will now cover our first quarter results in greater detail and share our expectations for the fiscal year. And once he's finished, I'll provide some additional details about upcoming initiatives.

    最後,Maple Street 正在朝著他們的新單元目標邁進。他們在第一季度開設了 3 個新地點,其中 2 個在德克薩斯州,1 個在佐治亞州。克雷格現在將更詳細地介紹我們第一季度的業績,並分享我們對本財年的預期。在他完成後,我將提供一些有關即將推出的計劃的更多詳細信息。

  • Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

    Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Sandy, and good morning, everyone. For the first quarter, we delivered top line results in line with our expectations, which included total revenue of $839.5 million, an increase of 7% over the prior year quarter.

    謝謝你,桑迪,大家早上好。第一季度,我們實現了符合我們預期的最高業績,其中總收入為 8.395 億美元,比去年同期增長 7%。

  • Restaurant revenue increased 7.6% to $662.2 million, and retail revenue increased 4.6% to $177.3 million versus the prior year quarter. Comparable store total sales, including both restaurant and retail grew by 6.5%.

    餐廳收入同比增長 7.6% 至 6.622 億美元,零售收入同比增長 4.6% 至 1.773 億美元。包括餐廳和零售在內的可比商店總銷售額增長了 6.5%。

  • Comparable store restaurant sales grew by 7.1% over the prior year driven primarily by approximately 8% pricing, which consisted of approximately 5% carryforward pricing from fiscal 2022 and approximately 3% new pricing.

    可比店面餐廳銷售額比上年增長 7.1%,主要受約 8% 定價的推動,其中包括約 5% 的 2022 財年結轉定價和約 3% 的新定價。

  • We are closely monitoring the impact or pricing has happened on traffic and check, and we're pleased that we have not seen any meaningful pushback from our guests in this regard.

    我們正在密切監控對流量和檢查的影響或定價,很高興我們沒有看到客人在這方面做出任何有意義的反對。

  • Off-premise sales were 17.5% of restaurant sales. Comparable store retail sales increased 4.3% compared to the first quarter of the prior year. The core and apparel and accessories delivered the largest increases by category. Moving on to our first quarter expenses. Total cost of goods sold in the quarter was 33.5% of total revenue versus 30.9% in the prior year quarter.

    場外銷售額佔餐廳銷售額的 17.5%。與去年第一季度相比,可比商店零售額增長了 4.3%。核心商品以及服裝和配飾按品類增幅最大。繼續我們的第一季度費用。本季度銷售商品的總成本佔總收入的 33.5%,而去年同期為 30.9%。

  • Restaurant cost of goods sold in the quarter was 29.1% of restaurant sales versus 26% in the prior year quarter. This 310 basis point increase was primarily driven by commodity inflation of 16.7% and elevated freight costs partially offset by pricing.

    本季度餐廳銷售商品成本佔餐廳銷售額的 29.1%,而去年同期為 26%。這 310 個基點的增長主要是由於 16.7% 的商品通脹和運費上漲部分被定價所抵消。

  • The commodity inflation we experienced over the quarter was seen across our entire market basket were the primary drivers of the year-over-year increase in Q1 were poultry, dairy and produce.

    我們在本季度經歷的商品通脹在我們的整個市場籃子中都可以看到,第一季度同比增長的主要驅動因素是家禽、乳製品和農產品。

  • First quarter retail cost of goods sold was 50.2% of retail sales versus 48.7% in the prior year quarter. This 150 basis point increase was primarily driven by increased promotional activity and higher freight costs.

    第一季度零售商品銷售成本佔零售額的 50.2%,而去年同期為 48.7%。這 150 個基點的增長主要是由於促銷活動的增加和運費的增加。

  • Our inventories at quarter end were $231 million, compared to $160 million in the prior year, which, as a reminder, were below historical levels. In addition to comping over a lower base, most of this year-over-year increase was in our retail inventories and was driven by several intentional actions on our part, including our investments in merchandise to support higher planned sales especially in our everyday categories and Christmas themes and our acceleration of purchasing in certain areas to mitigate supply chain challenges and to ensure on-time delivery.

    我們在季度末的庫存為 2.31 億美元,而去年同期為 1.6 億美元,提醒一下,這低於歷史水平。除了彌補較低的基數外,這一同比增長的大部分來自我們的零售庫存,並且是由我們的一些有意行動推動的,包括我們對商品的投資以支持更高的計劃銷售,特別是在我們的日常類別和聖誕主題和我們在某些領域的採購加速,以緩解供應鏈挑戰並確保准時交貨。

  • With regard to labor cost, our first quarter labor and related expenses were 34.8% of revenue versus 35% in the prior year quarter, a decrease of 20 basis points. Wage inflation for the quarter was 8%.

    在勞動力成本方面,我們第一季度的勞動力及相關費用佔收入的 34.8%,而去年同期為 35%,下降了 20 個基點。本季度的工資通脹率為 8%。

  • Finally, adjusted other operating expenses were 23.1% of revenue versus 23% in the prior year quarter. And our adjusted general and administrative expenses in the first quarter were 5.1% of revenue versus 5.2% in the prior year quarter.

    最後,調整後的其他運營費用佔收入的 23.1%,而去年同期為 23%。我們在第一季度調整後的一般和行政費用佔收入的 5.1%,而去年同期為 5.2%。

  • All of this culminated in GAAP operating income of $23.6 million. Adjusted for the noncash amortization of the asset recognized from the gains on the sale and leaseback transactions and expenses related to the proxy contest and settlements adjusted operating income for the quarter was $30 million or 3.6% of revenue.

    所有這些最終使 GAAP 營業收入達到 2360 萬美元。根據售後租回交易收益和與代理競爭和結算相關的費用確認的資產非現金攤銷調整後,本季度調整後的營業收入為 3000 萬美元,佔收入的 3.6%。

  • Net interest expense for the quarter was $3.5 million, compared to net interest expense of $2.6 million in the prior year quarter. This increase is the result of higher interest rates and a higher level of borrowing.

    本季度的淨利息支出為 350 萬美元,而去年同期的淨利息支出為 260 萬美元。這種增長是利率上升和借貸水平上升的結果。

  • Our GAAP effective tax rate for the first quarter was 14.7%. First quarter GAAP earnings per diluted share were $0.77 and adjusted earnings per diluted share were $0.99. In the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA was $54.8 million or 6.5% of total revenue.

    我們第一季度的 GAAP 有效稅率為 14.7%。第一季度 GAAP 每股攤薄收益為 0.77 美元,調整後每股攤薄收益為 0.99 美元。第一季度,調整後的 EBITDA 為 5480 萬美元,佔總收入的 6.5%。

  • Turning to capital allocation and our balance sheet. We remain committed to a balanced approach to capital allocation. Our first priority remains invested in the growth of Cracker Barrel and Maple Street. Beyond that, we plan to return capital to our shareholders while maintaining appropriate flexibility and a conservative balance sheet.

    轉向資本配置和我們的資產負債表。我們仍然致力於平衡的資本配置方法。我們的首要任務仍然是投資於 Cracker Barrel 和 Maple Street 的發展。除此之外,我們計劃向股東返還資本,同時保持適當的靈活性和保守的資產負債表。

  • In the first quarter, we invested $21.6 million in capital expenditures, primarily on maintenance of existing stores and we returned $42 million to shareholders in the first quarter through a combination of dividends and share repurchases.

    第一季度,我們投資了 2160 萬美元用於資本支出,主要用於現有門店的維護,我們在第一季度通過股息和股票回購相結合的方式向股東返還了 4200 萬美元。

  • Lastly, we ended the quarter with $484 million in total debt. For the full year, we expect our leverage ratio will be within our target range of 1.3x to 1.7x. With respect to our fiscal 2023 outlook, I would like to provide some additional color on the guidance provided in this morning's release.

    最後,我們在本季度末的總債務為 4.84 億美元。對於全年,我們預計我們的槓桿率將在 1.3 倍至 1.7 倍的目標範圍內。關於我們的 2023 財年展望,我想對今天上午發布的指南提供一些額外的色彩。

  • Everyone should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties associated with this outlook as described in today's earnings release and in our reports filed with the SEC. We continue to operate in a challenging environment of economic uncertainty that makes predicting the balance of the year are particularly difficult.

    正如今天的收益發布和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中所述,每個人都應該注意與這一前景相關的風險和不確定性。我們繼續在充滿挑戰的經濟不確定性環境中運營,這使得預測今年的餘額特別困難。

  • Consumer confidence, recessionary risks, inflation and supply chain constraints are some of the things that depended on whether, when and how much they shift, can impact our business positively or negatively for the balance of the year. And consequently, when we expect to return to higher margins.

    消費者信心、衰退風險、通貨膨脹和供應鏈限制是一些因素,取決於它們是否、何時以及多少會在今年餘下時間對我們的業務產生積極或消極的影響。因此,當我們期望恢復到更高的利潤率時。

  • Predicting becomes even more challenging when we try to weigh the impact of these drivers on particular groups such as over 65 and lower-income guests and travelers. We've seen this play out month-to-month on the sales side since we began our fiscal year in August. August and September sales were strong, but then we saw softening in October. November sales, however, exceeded our expectations due to a strong holiday performance and increased special occasion catering but a slightly lower dine-in traffic.

    當我們試圖權衡這些驅動因素對特定群體(例如 65 歲以上和低收入客人和旅行者)的影響時,預測變得更具挑戰性。自 8 月份開始我們的財政年度以來,我們已經看到這種情況在銷售方面逐月上演。 8 月和 9 月的銷售強勁,但隨後我們看到 10 月出現疲軟。然而,11 月的銷售額超出了我們的預期,原因是假期表現強勁,特殊場合餐飲增加,但堂食客流量略有下降。

  • All of this makes the tea leaves more challenging than normal to read as we project out the balance of the year. This also applies to the cost side as we attempt to predict changes in commodity inflation. We expect commodity inflation to moderate, but the timing and magnitude is complicated by market basket wins.

    當我們預測一年的餘額時,所有這些都使茶葉比平時更難閱讀。這也適用於成本方面,因為我們試圖預測商品通脹的變化。我們預計大宗商品通脹將放緩,但時機和幅度因市場籃子獲勝而變得複雜。

  • For example, lower chicken and pork prices may be offset by higher-than-anticipated increases in eggs, dairy and produce.

    例如,較低的雞肉和豬肉價格可能會被高於預期的雞蛋、奶製品和農產品的漲幅所抵消。

  • Turning to the numbers. We currently expect total FY '23 revenue growth over the prior year of 6% to 8%. In addition to anticipated favorable comparable store total sales growth, this assumes the opening of 3 to 4 new Cracker Barrel locations and the opening of 15 to 20 new Maple Street locations.

    轉向數字。我們目前預計 23 財年的總收入比上年增長 6% 至 8%。除了預期有利的可比商店總銷售額增長外,這還假設開設 3 至 4 個新的 Cracker Barrel 地點和開設 15 至 20 個新的 Maple Street 地點。

  • Comparable store sales growth is expected to be primarily driven by approximately 8% total annual pricing. We remain prudent and thoughtful in our approach to pricing and are utilizing multiple approaches to monitor guest reactions to price increases, including pricing holdback groups, first and third-party guest surveys and monitoring pricing flow-through.

    可比店面銷售額增長預計主要由約 8% 的年度總定價推動。我們在定價方法上保持謹慎和周到,並正在利用多種方法來監測客人對價格上漲的反應,包括定價阻止組、第一方和第三方客人調查以及監控定價流程。

  • We now anticipate commodity inflation of approximately 8% to 9% for the fiscal year with low double-digit inflation in Q2 and mid-single-digit inflation in Q3 and slight deflation in Q4. We now expect wage inflation of approximately 5% to 6% for the fiscal year.

    我們現在預計本財年商品通脹率約為 8% 至 9%,第二季度通脹率較低,為兩位數,第三季度通脹率中等個位數,第四季度略有通縮。我們現在預計本財年的工資通脹率約為 5% 至 6%。

  • We believe wage inflation peaked in Q1 and anticipate lower inflation rates for the remainder of the year. As I said earlier, we continue to expect to deliver between $20 million to $25 million in cost savings during this fiscal year ending the year at annualized run rate savings of approximately $13 million from the work we've done over the last several quarters.

    我們認為工資通脹在第一季度達到頂峰,並預計今年剩餘時間的通脹率將下降。正如我之前所說,我們繼續期望在本財年結束的本財年實現 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元的成本節約,根據我們在過去幾個季度所做的工作,年化運營率將節省約 1300 萬美元。

  • As a reminder, we anticipate restaurant COGS and labor end related to each deliver just under 40% of the annualized savings with much of the remaining 20% being realized in other operating expenses. In addition to the above assumptions for revenue growth, commodity and wage inflation and cost savings, our operating income margin expectation contemplates the following assumptions continued inflation pressures in other areas of the P&L, most notably supplies, utilities and maintenance.

    提醒一下,我們預計與每個餐廳相關的 COGS 和勞動力結束將提供不到 40% 的年化節省,其餘 20% 的大部分將用於其他運營費用。除了上述收入增長、商品和工資通脹以及成本節約的假設外,我們的營業收入利潤率預期還考慮了以下假設,即損益表其他領域的持續通脹壓力,尤其是供應、公用事業和維護。

  • Moderation in retail margin compared to the prior year near historic high and incentive compensation normalization, which will have a meaningful impact on G&A in Q3 and Q4. We continue to believe what we said last quarter that our costs will gradually improve as we move to the back half of the fiscal year. While the timing has shifted out a bit so that the benefits of the back half are likely more heavily weighted to Q4.

    零售利潤率較上年有所放緩,接近歷史高位,激勵薪酬正常化,這將對第三季度和第四季度的 G&A 產生重大影響。我們仍然相信我們上個季度所說的,隨著我們進入本財年的下半年,我們的成本將逐漸改善。雖然時間有所偏移,因此後半部分的好處可能更多地集中在第四季度。

  • As a result, we anticipate that our second quarter adjusted operating income margin will be meaningfully below the prior year quarter. However, we expect our operating income margin rate will improve in the back half of the year as commodity inflation moderates and our cost savings initiatives gained further traction.

    因此,我們預計第二季度調整後的營業收入利潤率將大大低於去年同期。然而,我們預計我們的營業收入利潤率將在今年下半年隨著商品通脹放緩和我們的成本節約計劃獲得進一步推動而提高。

  • As a result, we anticipate our Q4 operating income margin will be well above the first quarter we just reported. Taking all of this into account, we expect full year adjusted operating income margin to be in the high 4% range. We also believe there is upside in our operating income expectation if there were to be further moderation in the commodity environment and potential downside if there were to be deterioration of the consumer environment or if inflation fails to moderate or further increases.

    因此,我們預計我們第四季度的營業利潤率將遠高於我們剛剛報告的第一季度。考慮到所有這些因素,我們預計全年調整後的營業收入利潤率將處於 4% 的高位區間。我們還認為,如果大宗商品環境進一步放緩,我們的營業收入預期會有上行空間;如果消費環境惡化或通脹未能緩和或進一步上升,則可能存在下行空間。

  • Lastly, we anticipate that capital expenditures for the year will be approximately $125 million, including new store investments of roughly $30 million. I'll now turn the call back over to Sandy so that she may share additional details around the business plans and outlook for fiscal 2023.

    最後,我們預計今年的資本支出約為 1.25 億美元,其中包括約 3000 萬美元的新店投資。我現在將電話轉回給桑迪,以便她可以分享有關 2023 財年業務計劃和展望的更多詳細信息。

  • Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

    Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

  • As Craig outlined, the current environment is challenging to navigate and to predict, especially with regard to inflation and recessionary uncertainty.

    正如 Craig 所概述的那樣,當前的環境很難駕馭和預測,尤其是在通貨膨脹和衰退的不確定性方面。

  • Despite this, we remain confident in our plans and believe we will see improved performance later in the fiscal year. Now I'd like to speak to some of the Q2 highlights.

    儘管如此,我們仍然對我們的計劃充滿信心,並相信我們會在本財年晚些時候看到業績的改善。現在我想談談第二季度的一些亮點。

  • As a reminder, our second quarter is an especially important quarter for us due to seasonally higher volumes, and this is particularly true for our off-premise business. As Craig mentioned, we're generally pleased with our performance in November. We again saw strong demand for our Thanksgiving heat-and-serve offerings, which continue to resonate with guests that are looking to provide a delicious convenient home cook meal at a strong value for their family and friends, and we're looking forward to Christmas.

    提醒一下,由於季節性銷量增加,第二季度對我們來說是一個特別重要的季度,對於我們的場外業務尤其如此。正如 Craig 提到的,我們對 11 月份的表現總體上感到滿意。我們再次看到對感恩節即食產品的強勁需求,這些產品繼續引起客人的共鳴,他們希望以高價值為家人和朋友提供美味方便的家常菜,我們期待聖誕節.

  • As you may recall, 1 of our goals for the fiscal year was to grow our catering business 25% to $100 million. Enhancements to our catering offerings and optimized marketing support have driven meaningful growth within this channel, and we are on track to achieve our growth target.

    您可能還記得,我們本財年的目標之一是將我們的餐飲業務增長 25% 至 1 億美元。我們餐飲產品的增強和優化的營銷支持推動了這一渠道的有意義的增長,我們有望實現我們的增長目標。

  • Given the prevailing environment, we believe preserving our value leadership is a critical importance and we'll be leaning further into value messaging in the upcoming months. From a pricing perspective, as Craig emphasized, we remain thoughtful with how we're taking pricing and are being mindful to preserve the value sections of our menu and to maintain attractive entry price points.

    鑑於當前的環境,我們認為保持我們的價值領導地位至關重要,我們將在未來幾個月進一步傾向於價值信息傳遞。從定價的角度來看,正如克雷格強調的那樣,我們對定價的方式保持深思熟慮,並註意保留菜單的價值部分並保持有吸引力的入門價位。

  • We believe we're striking an appropriate balance of protecting margins and preserving our value strength, and we're closely monitoring guest reaction. Continue to invest in technology to enhance the guest experience, and I'm particularly excited about our completely new app that we launched at the beginning of November which greatly improves the user experience and reduces friction to make ordering and reordering much easier.

    我們相信我們在保護利潤和保持我們的價值實力之間取得了適當的平衡,並且我們正在密切關注客人的反應。繼續投資於技術以提升客人體驗,我對我們在 11 月初推出的全新應用程序感到特別興奮,它極大地改善了用戶體驗並減少了摩擦,使訂購和重新訂購變得更加容易。

  • In addition to enhancing the guest experience, the new app also lays the foundation for our loyalty program, which we plan to launch during the fourth quarter. Regarding retail, we've generally been pleased with our Christmas theme performance and our overall results quarter-to-date have been within expectations.

    除了提升賓客體驗外,新應用程序還為我們計劃在第四季度推出的忠誠度計劃奠定了基礎。在零售方面,我們對聖誕節主題的表現總體上感到滿意,我們本季度迄今的總體業績也在預期之內。

  • However, we continue to monitor the retail environment in the face of potential macroeconomic headwinds and aggressive discounting. And while we believe our unique offerings at strong price points resonate with gas and benefits our retail business, we expect our promotional activity will be higher than the prior year, even though it's still well below historical levels.

    然而,面對潛在的宏觀經濟逆風和激進的折扣,我們繼續監測零售環境。雖然我們相信我們以高價位提供的獨特產品與天然氣產生共鳴並使我們的零售業務受益,但我們預計我們的促銷活動將高於上一年,儘管它仍遠低於歷史水平。

  • In conclusion, we delivered Q1 results that were within expectations, and we're making great progress on our initiatives. We remain confident in our strategy and encouraged by our start to Q2. We continue to face headwinds, especially from inflation, but expect to see significant improvements to our performance in the latter portion of the fiscal year as our initiatives gain further traction and the external environment becomes more favorable.

    總之,我們交付了符合預期的第一季度結果,並且我們在我們的計劃上取得了很大進展。我們對我們的戰略充滿信心,並為我們第二季度的開局感到鼓舞。我們繼續面臨逆風,尤其是通貨膨脹帶來的不利因素,但隨著我們的舉措獲得進一步的牽引力和外部環境變得更加有利,預計我們在本財年下半年的業績將有顯著改善。

  • Before wrapping up, we're happy to announce that Bill Moreton has joined our Board of Directors. Many of you are likely already familiar with Bill, who's a well-known leader in the restaurant space, most notably with Panera Bread Company, where he served in a variety of senior executive positions over several tenures, including CEO, CFO and Executive Vice Chairman.

    在結束之前,我們很高興地宣布 Bill Moreton 已加入我們的董事會。你們中的許多人可能已經熟悉 Bill,他是餐廳領域的知名領導者,最著名的是 Panera Bread Company,他在該公司擔任過多個高級管理職位,包括首席執行官、首席財務官和執行副董事長.

  • Like Jody Bilney, who recently joined our Board, we've known Bill for several years and have great respect for him. Our entire Board and management team are looking forward to working with him and with Jody as we tackle the opportunities ahead of us.

    就像最近加入我們董事會的喬迪·比爾尼 (Jody Bilney) 一樣,我們認識比爾已有數年之久,並且非常尊重他。我們整個董事會和管理團隊都期待著與他和 Jody 合作,共同應對擺在我們面前的機遇。

  • Lastly, I'd like to thank our employees for their continued resilience and their dedication to our brand and our guests. Thank you. And with that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for your questions.

    最後,我要感謝我們的員工,感謝他們持續的堅韌以及對我們品牌和客人的奉獻。謝謝你。有了這個,我會把電話轉給接線員來回答你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Todd Brooks with Benchmark.

    (操作員說明)今天的第一個問題來自 Todd Brooks 和 Benchmark。

  • Todd Morrison Brooks - Senior Equity Analyst

    Todd Morrison Brooks - Senior Equity Analyst

  • If I could ask a couple of questions. One on the inventory side. I know we talked about -- and I think the dollars were up about 45%. Most of that on the retail side. .

    如果我能問幾個問題。一個在庫存方面。我知道我們談過——我認為美元上漲了大約 45%。其中大部分在零售方面。 .

  • And Craig, I think you pointed to timing is still being something as far as flowing product earlier this year versus last year for holiday. Can we maybe talk about what unit inventories look like? Or I thought we'd be close enough to holiday now that we would have normalized for maybe some of the supply chain friction in the year-over-year comparison. So if we can talk about maybe what you're running for unit inventory increases for retail, that would be helpful.

    克雷格,我認為你指出的時間仍然是今年早些時候與去年假期相比的流動產品。我們可以談談單位庫存是什麼樣的嗎?或者我認為我們已經足夠接近假期了,因為在同比比較中我們可能已經將一些供應鏈摩擦標準化。因此,如果我們可以談談您為零售單位庫存增加而運行的內容,那將很有幫助。

  • Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

    Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

  • Why don't I take that one, Todd. This is Sandy. I'll try to give you a little bit of color. So if you were to break down the increase in inventory, a little more than 25% of the increase is just bringing in product earlier than we would have.

    我為什麼不拿那個,托德。這是桑迪。我會盡量給你一點顏色。因此,如果你要分解庫存的增加,略多於 25% 的增加只是比我們更早地引入產品。

  • And no, that won't really work through the system. And still some of it will see the difference by the end of the second quarter, but certainly by the end of the year because we're still bringing in some.

    不,這不會真正通過系統工作。到第二季度末,其中一些仍然會有所不同,但肯定會在今年年底出現,因為我們仍在引進一些。

  • We order so far ahead and about a little over 30% of it then is an increase in inventory to support our everyday business. So I don't have the unit counts. But that's food, personal care and business that we actually would have liked to have had more last year, but it supports you every day.

    到目前為止,我們提前訂購了大約 30% 多一點的訂單,然後是增加庫存以支持我們的日常業務。所以我沒有單位數。但那是我們去年實際上希望擁有更多的食物、個人護理和業務,但它每天都在支持你。

  • I'd say about 5% of the increase has been in cost increase across the board. So yes, the inventories are up. I'm comfortable with where we're positioned at this point. And as we go through the year, I think you'll see normalizing more in the second half of the year.

    我想說大約 5% 的增長是全面的成本增長。所以是的,庫存增加了。我對我們目前所處的位置感到滿意。隨著我們度過這一年,我認為你會在下半年看到更多的正常化。

  • Todd Morrison Brooks - Senior Equity Analyst

    Todd Morrison Brooks - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then a second question, and then I'll jump back in the queue. You have a unique calendar where this upcoming quarter ends in January. So you had the full brunt of Omicron last year.

    好的。偉大的。然後是第二個問題,然後我會跳回到隊列中。您有一個獨特的日曆,即將到來的季度在一月份結束。因此,您去年首當其沖地受到了 Omicron 的衝擊。

  • I'm just wondering, can you review for us just -- it seems like it's a while ago, but what -- where staffing levels were in Q2 of fiscal '22? What actions you had to take as far as either unit closures, constrained operating hours, not fully seeing the dining room and just where the staffing position is right now going into the holiday quarter and what type of opportunity that should be on the top line side?

    我只是想知道,你能不能為我們回顧一下——這似乎是不久前的事了,但是——22 財年第二季度的人員配置水平在哪裡?就關閉單位、限制營業時間、沒有完全看到餐廳以及員工職位現在進入假日季度的位置以及頂線方面應該採取什麼類型的機會而言,您必須採取什麼行動?

  • Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

    Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, we are -- so yes, it does seem in a way a long time ago and in a way only yesterday of dealing with all the COVID. So part of our expectations for the second quarter do involve us lapping the impact of Omicron which started for us as we see the end of December on or about December 21 or so is where we really were able to measure it.

    好吧,我們是——所以是的,從某種意義上說,這似乎是很久以前的事了,而且只是在昨天才處理所有 COVID。因此,我們對第二季度的部分預期確實涉及我們評估 Omicron 的影響,因為我們看到 12 月底或大約 12 月 21 日左右,我們才真正能夠衡量它。

  • I can tell you that this year, our staffing levels are -- I mean, we feel very good about where we are in terms of being staffed. Of course, we still have pockets of stores that we'd like to have more, but that was that way pre-COVID.

    我可以告訴你,今年,我們的人員配置水平是——我的意思是,我們對我們在人員配備方面的位置感到非常滿意。當然,我們仍然希望擁有更多的商店,但那是 COVID 之前的方式。

  • In terms of last year, we were struggling more with staffing, I think, particularly in the front of the house and with servers, as I recall. It was also impacting call-outs. So stores that were even staffed, the impact of the COVID were impacting when staff couldn't come to work.

    就去年而言,我認為我們在人員配置方面遇到了更多困難,特別是在房子前面和服務器方面,我記得。這也影響了呼出。因此,即使員工無法上班的商店,當員工無法上班時,COVID 的影響也會受到影響。

  • So we did have times where we were having to limit dining rooms. I think there were probably even some stores that had to go to off-premise only. And all of that is factored into our expectations for the second quarter performance.

    所以我們確實有時不得不限制餐廳。我認為甚至可能有一些商店只能去場外。所有這些都被納入我們對第二季度業績的預期中。

  • I know probably at some point, Jen will speak to our 65-year-old guest visitation. We do think that, that disproportionately hurt us last year since we think that guest was even more sensitive to the COVID concerns. And so one of the reasons we're looking forward to those guests coming back during the second quarter.

    我知道可能在某個時候,Jen 會和我們 65 歲的來賓交談。我們確實認為,去年這對我們造成了不成比例的傷害,因為我們認為客人對 COVID 的擔憂更加敏感。因此,我們期待這些客人在第二季度回來的原因之一。

  • Todd Morrison Brooks - Senior Equity Analyst

    Todd Morrison Brooks - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And one quick follow-up just on that last point. If I look at the change in the annual revenue guidance, kind of taking the low end down to up 6% from up 7% prior year coming off a quarter that was in line with expectations.

    好的。最後一點的快速跟進。如果我看一下年度收入指引的變化,將低端從去年同期的 7% 下降到 6%,這符合預期。

  • You spoke to potentially returning strength in that 65-plus customer why are we dropping the low end of the guidance from where we were revenue-wise at the end of the fiscal year?

    你談到了那個 65 歲以上客戶的潛在回報實力,為什麼我們在本財年結束時放棄了我們在收入方面的指導的低端?

  • Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

    Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

  • It's a great -- it's a very good question. The underlying reason is volatility. So what we've seen so far this fiscal year that started in August is a really strong start to the year. August, September, particularly strong. October softened and November has been doing better than our expectations.

    這是一個很好的問題。根本原因是波動性。因此,從 8 月開始的本財年到目前為止,我們所看到的是今年的一個非常強勁的開端。八月、九月,特別旺盛。 10 月走軟,11 月表現好於我們的預期。

  • So in aggregate, we're feeling confident in our top line estimates. But at the same time, the range of performance has increased. And I think that's a function of just the news that folks are getting and what they're experiencing in their pocket books and gas prices has been moving around generally down, but the news about what's happening in the grocery stores and so on. This is causing a greater level of volatility in results.

    因此,總的來說,我們對我們的收入估計充滿信心。但與此同時,性能範圍也有所增加。而且我認為這只是人們得到的消息以及他們在口袋書和汽油價格普遍下降的消息的作用,但有關雜貨店發生的事情的消息等等。這導致結果出現更大程度的波動。

  • So as a result, we think the range is a little bit broader, even though we continue to believe in our overall expectation.

    因此,儘管我們繼續相信我們的總體預期,但我們認為範圍有點寬泛。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jake Bartlett with Truist Securities.

    下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Jake Bartlett。

  • Jake Rowland Bartlett - VP

    Jake Rowland Bartlett - VP

  • My first one was just a clarification of November. And Craig, in the context of that volatility I'm wondering whether November outside of Thanksgiving, how that looked? I mean was -- I'm just wondering whether November was solid because of Thanksgiving and maybe the rest was a little more wobbly. Any detail there would be helpful.

    我的第一個只是對 11 月的澄清。克雷格,在這種波動的背景下,我想知道感恩節以外的 11 月,情況如何?我的意思是——我只是想知道 11 月是否因為感恩節而穩定,也許其餘的時間更不穩定。那裡的任何細節都會有所幫助。

  • Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

    Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

  • Absolutely, Jay. Good question. So what we saw with November, and I'll speak -- I'll go back to the entire first quarter in August that's very strong. October softened. And November -- within November, we did have really good performance as it relates to our holiday business, our catering business.

    絕對的,傑伊。好問題。所以我們在 11 月看到的,我要說的是——我將回到 8 月的整個第一季度,這非常強勁。十月變軟了。 11 月——在 11 月,我們確實有非常好的表現,因為它與我們的假期業務、我們的餐飲業務有關。

  • Our dining business was a little bit softer than expectation, but it had improved from the prior month. So again, this kind of goes to the overall theme of volatility. In aggregate, we're feeling confident in the overall top line, but there is movement underneath that.

    我們的餐飲業務比預期稍微疲軟,但比上個月有所改善。因此,這再次涉及到波動的整體主題。總的來說,我們對整體收入充滿信心,但在這之下還有一些變化。

  • So in aggregate, for dine-in, it's still a little bit below expectations, but that it improved from the prior period.

    因此,總的來說,就堂食而言,它仍然略低於預期,但比上一時期有所改善。

  • Jake Rowland Bartlett - VP

    Jake Rowland Bartlett - VP

  • Great. And then I had a question just in terms of that kind of the matures and the boomers and that higher age cohort, improving a little bit. Just noting that the Social Security adjustment being up 8.7% in '23. How much of the benefit do you think that could be for Cracker Barrel?

    偉大的。然後我有一個問題是關於那種成熟的、嬰兒潮一代和更高年齡的人群,有所改善。只是注意到社會保障調整在 23 年增長了 8.7%。您認為這對 Cracker Barrel 有多大好處?

  • And maybe in the answer to that, I'm hoping you can give us a update on what percentage of sales of those older -- older cohort accounts for my impression was about 50% just historically, but if you could just confirm or deny that, that would be great.

    也許在回答這個問題時,我希望你能告訴我們這些老年人的銷售額百分比的最新情況 - 老年人群占我印象的歷史數據約為 50%,但如果你能證實或否認這一點, 那太好了。

  • Jennifer L. Tate - Senior VP & CMO

    Jennifer L. Tate - Senior VP & CMO

  • Jake, it's Jen. I would say, in general, our 65-plus guests in spite of things like that social security increase are still we're seeing all-time lows or near all-time lows with their sentiment.

    傑克,是珍。我想說的是,總的來說,儘管社會保障有所增加,但我們的 65 多位客人的情緒仍然處於歷史最低點或接近歷史最低點。

  • And I think that with pressure in terms of food, gas and rent and all of that being up significantly more, right? Food inflation in the grocery store is up 20%. So -- and gas prices, although they're low today, it's been incredibly volatile, up, down, up, down.

    而且我認為,在食品、天然氣和租金方面的壓力以及所有這些方面的壓力要大得多,對吧?雜貨店的食品價格上漲了 20%。所以——還有天然氣價格,儘管它們今天很低,但它的波動非常大,漲、跌、漲、跌。

  • And so their sentiment is very negative. Their outlook for the future. Their financial and security is very high. So I think even though we have seen some improvement in our trend with our 65-plus guests, there is still quite a bit of recovery left for us with that group.

    因此,他們的情緒非常消極。他們對未來的展望。他們的財務和安全性非常高。所以我認為,儘管我們已經看到我們的 65 多位客人的趨勢有所改善,但我們仍然有相當多的恢復空間。

  • I don't -- I'm not going to get into the exact percentages, but you're way off, right? It's not quite that high, and it's not quite that. It's not quite that high, and it has come down. I think the group we're seeing the most increase with is the younger generation.

    我不——我不會說出確切的百分比,但你離得遠了,對吧?它不是那麼高,也不是那麼高。它不是那麼高,它已經下降了。我認為我們看到增長最快的群體是年輕一代。

  • So for the last several quarters, we've seen an increase in frequency with younger guests, in particular, with the 18- to 34-year olds, and we think that is really in part due to the strategic initiatives we've been undertaking, whether that is the culinary and beverage news, the increased focus on targeted digital marketing or the technology enhancements that we've done for them we're seeing a sustained improvement with that group as well.

    因此,在過去的幾個季度中,我們發現年輕客人的頻率有所增加,尤其是 18 至 34 歲的客人,我們認為這在一定程度上歸功於我們一直在採取的戰略舉措,無論是烹飪和飲料新聞、對有針對性的數字營銷的更多關注,還是我們為他們所做的技術改進,我們也看到了該群體的持續改進。

  • Jake Rowland Bartlett - VP

    Jake Rowland Bartlett - VP

  • Great. Yes, the math I was -- I think was very -- a number of years ago, you talked about kind of in a presentation about 1/3 of the traffic coming from -- and then I believe there were higher frequency. So that's where I got that number, but it's great that it's come down.

    偉大的。是的,我的數學 - 我認為非常 - 幾年前,你在演講中談到了大約 1/3 的流量來自 - 然後我相信有更高的頻率。所以這就是我得到那個數字的地方,但它下降了真是太好了。

  • And so I also -- Craig, just on food costs, I just wanted to make sure I understand the situation or the picture there. One is how much is contracting? And what kind of visibility do you have in your commodity inflation at this point. Last time you talked -- I think you were contracted really largely through December.

    所以我也——克雷格,關於食物成本,我只是想確保我了解那裡的情況或圖片。一是承包多少?在這一點上,您對商品通脹有什麼樣的可見性。上次你談的時候——我認為你在很大程度上是在整個 12 月份簽約的。

  • And so I'm wondering whether that -- you've continued to contract and whether you have more visibility? And then also regarding COGS, there's been kind of an odd thing that's been happening where COGS are going up more than the inflation and the pricing math would suggest. So inflation of 16.7% and pricing of 8% just the pure math would get you closer to kind of a little over 200 basis points, and you were 300 basis points.

    所以我想知道你是否繼續簽約,你是否有更多的知名度?然後還有關於 COGS,在 COGS 上升超過通貨膨脹和定價數學所暗示的情況下,發生了一件奇怪的事情。所以 16.7% 的通貨膨脹率和 8% 的定價只是純數學會讓你接近 200 個基點多一點,而你是 300 個基點。

  • So there's some kind of negative mix impact that's happened for a number of -- a couple of quarters now. And so trying to understand that. It seems like it's really a big driver of really what you're (inaudible). So that would be helpful and maybe that gets lapped. So understanding that would be better. It would be helpful. And then just the visibility of the commodity inflation.

    因此,現在已經有幾個季度發生了某種負面的綜合影響。所以試圖理解這一點。看起來它真的是你真實身份的重要驅動力(聽不清)。所以這會有所幫助,也許會被套用。所以理解這一點會更好。這會很有幫助。然後就是商品通脹的可見性。

  • Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

    Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

  • Absolutely. So there are a few components there. As it relates to the inflation at the COGS potentially outpacing the explicit math, there's a little bit there that relates to freight and that we can cover more in detail in a follow-up.

    絕對地。所以那裡有一些組件。由於它與 COGS 的通貨膨脹率可能超過顯式數學有關,因此其中有一點與運費有關,我們可以在後續行動中更詳細地介紹。

  • Moving to coverage. We are about 40% -- 45% covered. We are in the process of negotiating our calendar 2023 now. And what we're seeing is that the inflation story is going to be -- commodity inflation story is really pivotal to our margin improvement expectations.

    轉向覆蓋。我們覆蓋了大約 40% - 45%。我們現在正在協商我們的 2023 年日曆。我們所看到的是,通貨膨脹的故事將是——商品通貨膨脹的故事對我們的利潤率提高預期確實至關重要。

  • And we have enough visibility that gives us confidence that inflation -- commodity inflation in particular, is moderating. I think we're all familiar with the downward movements in chicken and bacon.

    而且我們有足夠的知名度,使我們相信通貨膨脹——尤其是商品通貨膨脹——正在緩和。我想我們都熟悉雞肉和培根的下跌趨勢。

  • Now we do have some things going the other way, for example, eggs and dairy and some produce items. But in aggregate, our expectation is that produce is going to move down. And what we are experiencing is things are together, meeting our expectations, but it's taken a little bit longer than we originally expected.

    現在我們確實有一些事情是相反的,例如雞蛋和奶製品以及一些農產品。但總的來說,我們的預期是農產品價格將下降。我們正在經歷的是事情在一起,符合我們的期望,但它比我們原先預期的要長一點。

  • So as a result, we expect our COGS story, which is going to be a really big driver of our margin improvement and profitability improvement. We expect a lot of that to come to come to fruition in Q4. And at that point, we'll be -- we expect to be well above prior year. So at that point, we have some commodity deflation, and we are also getting more full benefit of the pricing actions.

    因此,我們期待我們的 COGS 故事,這將成為我們提高利潤率和盈利能力的真正重要推動力。我們預計其中很多將在第四季度取得成果。到那時,我們將 - 我們預計會遠高於上一年。所以在那個時候,我們有一些商品通貨緊縮,我們也從定價行動中獲得了更多的好處。

  • We've been taking multiple pricing actions throughout the year. So all of that together culminates then. The overall expectation is similar. It's not the same to where we started our fiscal it's just pushed out a little bit.

    全年我們一直在採取多種定價行動。所以所有這些一起達到高潮。總體預期是相似的。這與我們開始財政的地方不同,它只是推遲了一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jon Tower with Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗的 Jon Tower。

  • Jon Michael Tower - Director

    Jon Michael Tower - Director

  • I appreciate you taking the time. Curious, I got a few questions if I can run through it. First, just in terms of how you're thinking about -- or going back to the inventory question on the retail side explicitly.

    感謝您抽出時間。很好奇,如果我能完成它,我有幾個問題。首先,就您的思考方式而言——或者明確地回到零售方面的庫存問題。

  • Are you anticipating a greater markdown heading into the holiday through the holiday season here going forward? Are you going to have to kind of get a little bit more aggressive on those markdowns in order to rightsize the inventory instead of, say, hold for next year's holiday season? And then I've got a couple more questions.

    您是否預計在未來的假期期間會有更大的降價進入假期?為了調整庫存而不是為明年的假期保留庫存,您是否必須在這些降價促銷上採取更積極的態度?然後我還有幾個問題。

  • Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

    Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think in the -- as I said and -- or maybe Craig said in the prepared remarks, what we're expecting, Jon, is higher promotional activity than prior year but lower than historical.

    是的。我認為——正如我所說的——或者克雷格在準備好的發言中所說的,喬恩,我們期待的是比去年更高的促銷活動,但低於歷史水平。

  • So I think the team has done a good job of trying to manage more tightly where the inventory is, so where it gets allocated initially to stores that we think have the momentum and the demand and then managing the markdowns pretty tightly. So far, I'm feeling good about where we are against our plan.

    所以我認為團隊在嘗試更嚴格地管理庫存方面做得很好,因此最初將其分配給我們認為有動力和需求的商店,然後非常嚴格地管理降價。到目前為止,我對我們違反計劃的地方感覺良好。

  • Now with all that being said, as I mentioned, we are really monitoring the overall retail environment because we have to be aware of. And we are impacted by the discounting that may be going on broadly so far, I feel really good.

    綜上所述,正如我所提到的,我們確實在監控整個零售環境,因為我們必須意識到這一點。到目前為止,我們可能受到廣泛打折的影響,我感覺非常好。

  • I think our inventory is unique. It's a great value. It's fine. It seems resonating with the guests. But every week, we're managing the sell-through, particularly in our seasonal themes and our great gifts, last minute gives assortments, for example, to be sure that we are being very tightly controlling the markdown spend that we do have.

    我認為我們的庫存是獨一無二的。這是一個很大的價值。沒關係。似乎引起了客人的共鳴。但是每週,我們都在管理銷售率,特別是在我們的季節性主題和我們的精美禮物方面,例如,最後一分鐘提供的分類,以確保我們非常嚴格地控制我們確實有的降價支出。

  • Jon Michael Tower - Director

    Jon Michael Tower - Director

  • Okay. And then just drilling a little bit more into the commentary in the guidance for the year. But kind of looking about -- looking into the fiscal second quarter.

    好的。然後在今年的指南中對評論進行更多的鑽研。但有點看 - 調查第二財季。

  • I know last quarter, you gave a revenue guide or at least provided the idea that it was within the targeted range on a quarter-to-date basis. Maybe if you could refresh us on where it sits at this moment in time, post November? And then the commentary regarding second quarter margins being meaningfully below last year.

    我知道上個季度,你給出了收入指南,或者至少提供了它在季度至今的目標範圍內的想法。也許你可以讓我們及時了解它在 11 月之後的位置?然後是關於第二季度利潤率明顯低於去年的評論。

  • Are we thinking something more in line with what was printed in the first quarter either on a year-over-year basis or an absolute level? Just trying to figure out where this all falls?

    我們是否在考慮更符合第一季度同比或絕對水平的內容?只是想弄清楚這一切都落在哪裡?

  • Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

    Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, without giving the exact number on Q2, I would say first quarter was meaningfully below the prior year and second quarter meaningfully below. So both in terms of order of magnitude, similar explanation there. Okay. And what was the other part of the question, Jon?

    是的,如果不給出第二季度的確切數字,我會說第一季度顯著低於去年同期,第二季度顯著低於去年同期。所以兩者在數量級上,那裡都有類似的解釋。好的。喬恩,問題的另一部分是什麼?

  • Jon Michael Tower - Director

    Jon Michael Tower - Director

  • The revenue piece we just got into, whether or not (inaudible) in the...

    我們剛剛進入的收入部分,無論是否(聽不清)在......

  • Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

    Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

  • Over November performance was in line with our expectations. So we were pleased with that. And it's a -- obviously, it's a part of the overall 6% to 8% guidance. So we were pleased with it and met our expectations, a little bit ahead of our expectations for November.

    11 月份的表現符合我們的預期。所以我們對此很滿意。這是一個 - 顯然,它是整體 6% 到 8% 指導的一部分。因此,我們對此感到滿意並達到了我們的預期,比我們對 11 月份的預期略高一些。

  • Jon Michael Tower - Director

    Jon Michael Tower - Director

  • Okay. And with the stickier inflation kind of rolling along and then at the same time, it sounds like you're anticipating deflation in the back half of the year -- or excuse me, in the fourth quarter on the food cost side of the equation.

    好的。隨著更具粘性的通貨膨脹同時出現,聽起來你預計今年下半年會出現通貨緊縮——或者對不起,在第四季度的食品成本方面。

  • So as you're thinking around pricing shifted at all because obviously, the aggregate inflation for the full year looks to be a little bit higher on food costs as well as on labor and it sounds like some of the other OpEx line items as well. So I think you're running 8% pricing now. Is there any more thinking regarding maybe taking a little bit more price to help offset some of that?

    因此,當你考慮價格變化時,很明顯,全年的總通貨膨脹率在食品成本和勞動力方面看起來有點高,這聽起來也像其他一些 OpEx 項目。所以我認為你現在正在運行 8% 的定價。是否有更多的考慮可能採取更多的價格來幫助抵消其中的一些?

  • Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

    Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

  • It's an ongoing conversation. I think by our fourth quarter, we will be making up a lot of ground in terms of margins. Again, assuming that everything plays out the way that we think. The approach to price over the years has been to be -- we're a value leader.

    這是一個持續的對話。我認為到第四季度,我們將在利潤率方面取得很大進展。同樣,假設一切都按照我們的想法進行。多年來的定價方法一直是——我們是價值領導者。

  • We think that value leadership resonates, in particular, in an environment like this, and we have taken the approach that we can be a little bit behind on price and to ensure that we don't lose the traffic. That played out well in all of the analysis that we've done something that's working for us, and we're going to continue to try to strike that balance between pricing now for margin or taking a little bit longer to price and recover the margin.

    我們認為價值領導力會引起共鳴,尤其是在這樣的環境中,我們採取的方法是我們可以在價格上稍微落後一點,以確保我們不會失去流量。這在所有分析中都表現良好,我們已經做了一些對我們有用的事情,我們將繼續努力在現在為保證金定價或花更長的時間來定價和恢復保證金之間取得平衡.

  • We do think that starts to come together well in Q4. And could there be more prices, more pricing along the way? Absolutely, there could be. We're monitoring the consumer environment and we're really thoughtful that in what is a really odd time where it's somewhat recessionary and inflationary at the same time, but some of the inflation components are starting to break.

    我們確實認為這在第四季度開始很好地融合在一起。一路上會不會有更多的價格,更多的定價?絕對有可能。我們正在監測消費者環境,我們真的很認真地考慮到,在一個非常奇怪的時期,它同時有點衰退和通脹,但一些通脹因素開始崩潰。

  • So we don't want to get too far ahead on price in. So it's a long answer. Needless to say, we're being very thoughtful about it, and we think all of this will start to come together in terms of margins by Q4.

    所以我們不想在價格上走得太遠。所以這是一個很長的答案。不用說,我們對此深思熟慮,我們認為所有這些都將在第四季度開始體現在利潤率方面。

  • Jon Michael Tower - Director

    Jon Michael Tower - Director

  • Got it. I appreciate that. And then just the last one for me. You've had a few new board members join in the recent past. So I'm curious what the discussions have been -- have they evolved around capital allocation policies at the company since these new board members. And I know one is just joining, I think probably the (inaudible) it was today, but any updated thoughts around capital allocation policies?

    知道了。我很感激。然後是我的最後一個。最近有幾位新的董事會成員加入。所以我很好奇討論的內容是什麼——自這些新董事會成員以來,他們是否圍繞公司的資本分配政策進行了演變。我知道有人剛剛加入,我想可能是今天的(聽不清),但是關於資本分配政策的任何最新想法?

  • Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

    Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, the Board continues to discuss capital allocation at every board member -- at every Board meeting. And our new Board members, first, Bill joined today, right? He hasn't -- never been to a meeting. And Jody's first meeting was a week ago or so.

    好吧,董事會在每次董事會會議上繼續討論每位董事會成員的資本分配。我們的新董事會成員,首先,比爾今天加入了,對嗎?他沒有——從來沒有參加過會議。喬迪的第一次見面是在一周前左右。

  • So the -- they haven't had an opportunity yet to have much of they're new. I would say the Board continues to take a balanced approach that prioritizes first, the growth in Cracker Barrel and Maple Street. And then beyond that, we want to return capital to the shareholders through dividends and buybacks, and they are committed to constantly evaluating each of those opportunities and making what they view as the best judgment at the time.

    所以 - 他們還沒有機會擁有很多新東西。我想說的是,董事會將繼續採取平衡的方法,優先考慮 Cracker Barrel 和 Maple Street 的增長。除此之外,我們希望通過股息和回購向股東返還資本,他們致力於不斷評估每一個機會,並做出他們認為當時最好的判斷。

  • Jon Michael Tower - Director

    Jon Michael Tower - Director

  • I'm sorry, one last one for me. I apologize. When thinking about G&A for the year, how should we think about from a dollar basis where that should settle out?

    對不起,最後一張給我。我道歉。在考慮當年的 G&A 時,我們應該如何從美元的基礎上考慮應該在哪裡結算?

  • Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

    Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

  • No, we haven't provided that level of that level of guidance. For G&A, what I -- I will keep a couple of things in mind. We have been G&A has inflation as well, right, as wages and everything works through the P&L.

    不,我們沒有提供那種級別的指導。對於 G&A,我會記住一些事情。我們一直是 G&A 也有通貨膨脹,對,因為工資和一切都通過損益表運作。

  • Another -- an additional consideration in is in Q4, we are expecting our margins to improve considerably. And at the same time, we are expecting incentive compensation to normalize a bit versus prior year, and some of that will be -- a large part of that will be in G&A.

    另一個 - 第四季度的另一個考慮因素,我們預計我們的利潤率將大幅提高。與此同時,我們預計激勵薪酬與上一年相比會有所正常化,其中一部分將是——其中很大一部分將用於 G&A。

  • There are also additional investments that we're making to support our digital initiatives like loyalty and so on. So there are a lot of moving pieces in G&A, and we expect to get some leverage what we're also investing and there's some normalization that will happen in Q3 and Q4, but particularly in Q4.

    我們還進行了額外的投資來支持我們的數字計劃,如忠誠度等。因此,在 G&A 中有很多變動的部分,我們希望能夠利用我們也在投資的東西,並且在第三季度和第四季度會發生一些正常化,尤其是在第四季度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Brian Mullan with Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Mullan。

  • Brian Hugh Mullan - Research Analyst

    Brian Hugh Mullan - Research Analyst

  • In the prepared remarks, you mentioned expanding the test of the labor system to more stores and being pleased with what you've seen this far. So I'm just wondering if you could provide a few examples of the benefits those stores are experiencing in test?

    在準備好的發言中,您提到將勞動力系統的測試擴展到更多商店,並對您目前所看到的情況感到滿意。所以我想知道您是否可以提供一些例子,說明這些商店在測試中獲得的好處?

  • And then if you could just speak to how quickly you could roll that out to the rest of the system, if you still expect meaningful savings this year -- this fiscal year.

    然後,如果你能談談你能以多快的速度將其推廣到系統的其餘部分,如果你仍然期望今年有有意義的節省——本財政年度。

  • Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

    Craig A. Pommells - Interim Principal Accounting Officer, Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Absolutely, Brad. It's a part of our cost saves, the $20 million to $25 million, and it's embedded in that $30 million run rate for -- at the end of the year.

    是的。當然,布拉德。這是我們節省成本的一部分,即 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元,並且包含在年底的 3000 萬美元運行率中。

  • We are pleased with the labor system performance. We've seen solid performance both in terms of productivity but also across a number of other KPIs. So it's just a better way to run the business. It gives the team visibility at a more detailed level than they had before.

    我們對勞動制度的表現感到滿意。我們在生產力和許多其他 KPI 方面都看到了穩健的表現。因此,這只是一種更好的經營方式。它為團隊提供了比以前更詳細的可見性。

  • We're -- like with everything we're being thoughtful about it. We won't be fully rolled out by the end of the fiscal, I don't think, but we'll be close to it. So as a result, that is a component in why that $20 million to $25 million rose to $30 million at the end of the year.

    我們 - 就像我們正在考慮的一切一樣。我們不會在本財政年度結束時全面推出,我不認為,但我們會接近它。因此,這就是為什麼 2000 萬到 2500 萬美元在年底增加到 3000 萬美元的一個組成部分。

  • Brian Hugh Mullan - Research Analyst

    Brian Hugh Mullan - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just a follow-up. On the Maple Street development pipeline, I think the guidance implies you're going to open anywhere from 12 to 17 more units this fiscal year.

    好的。然後只是跟進。關於 Maple Street 開發管道,我認為該指南暗示您將在本財政年度再開設 12 到 17 個單位。

  • Can you just give us a sense into the visibility at this point, how many are under construction right now? And then just related to that, what are kind of the key metrics you're watching as you go down this path? I think you want to accelerate in '24 and '25. But building these yourself is new for the company since it was an acquisition. So just an update on all that.

    您能否讓我們了解一下此時的可見性,現在有多少正在建設中?然後與此相關的是,當你沿著這條路走下去時,你正在觀察什麼樣的關鍵指標?我想你想在 24 和 25 年加速。但自己建造這些對公司來說是新事物,因為它是一項收購。所以只是對所有這些的更新。

  • Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

    Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

  • Let's say, try to think how to -- right now, I feel good that we will be able to open within the range, but the environment in terms of construction and all of that and equipment and so on is still -- there's still a lot of uncertainty.

    比方說,試著想想如何——現在,我感覺很好,我們將能夠在這個範圍內開放,但在建築和所有這些以及設備等方面的環境仍然——仍然有一個很多不確定性。

  • So I guess, we could have some slippage as we have construction delays and so on. In terms of what we look for, and I'm pleased with the openings that we have had, we've been concentrating in Florida, Texas. We opened one, I think I mentioned in Georgia.

    所以我想,由於施工延誤等原因,我們可能會出現一些延誤。就我們尋找的東西而言,我對我們所擁有的職位空缺感到滿意,我們一直專注於德克薩斯州的佛羅里達州。我們開了一個,我想我在格魯吉亞提到過。

  • And so far, I'm comfortable and pleased with the progress we're making. What we're looking for is (inaudible), we are opening in a variety of real estate locations. So we're trying to understand better as we build our model of what works and what doesn't. But I'm also looking forward to John MacGuire building his team out.

    到目前為止,我對我們取得的進展感到滿意和高興。我們正在尋找的是(聽不清),我們正在各種房地產地點開業。因此,我們在構建有效和無效模型時試圖更好地理解。但我也期待 John MacGuire 組建他的團隊。

  • One of the constraints to growth will be whether we think we have the resources and the infrastructure to support the growth in terms of managers and that kind of thing, and I'm very pleased with the progress that the team over there is making in putting that kind of infrastructure in place.

    增長的製約因素之一是我們是否認為我們有資源和基礎設施來支持管理人員等方面的增長,我對那邊的團隊在投入方面取得的進展感到非常滿意那種基礎設施到位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Katherine Griffin with Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的凱瑟琳格里芬。

  • Katherine Anne Griffin - VP & Research Analyst

    Katherine Anne Griffin - VP & Research Analyst

  • First, I was curious to hear a bit more about sort of what you mentioned earlier about leaning into digital and expanding loyalty program. I'm curious if you can just kind of put some more context to that, whether what the sort of objectives are?

    首先,我很想听到更多關於您之前提到的關於傾向於數字化和擴展忠誠度計劃的內容。我很好奇你是否可以對此提供更多背景信息,無論目標是什麼?

  • Is it getting the younger cohorts into the stores more frequently? Is it having access to customer data that you can leverage in some way. I think just more color on sort of the reason behind leaning into digital would be helpful.

    是不是更頻繁地讓年輕群體進入商店?它是否可以訪問您可以以某種方式利用的客戶數據。我認為更多關於傾向於數字化背後的原因的顏色會有所幫助。

  • Jennifer L. Tate - Senior VP & CMO

    Jennifer L. Tate - Senior VP & CMO

  • Sure. Katherine, it's Jen. First, I would say this year, we've seen really solid results from the increase in targeted digital marketing that we have done amongst our -- the younger skewing segment. So we've been leveraging the great insights we've had from our segmentation study and enhancing the amount and quality of the targeted digital marketing that we've been doing with those groups, and we're seeing that, I think, pay out as we've grown frequency amongst those groups.

    當然。凱瑟琳,是珍。首先,我想說的是,今年我們已經看到我們在年輕的傾斜細分市場中所做的有針對性的數字營銷增加帶來了非常可觀的結果。因此,我們一直在利用我們從細分研究中獲得的深刻見解,並提高我們對這些群體進行的有針對性的數字營銷的數量和質量,我認為,我們看到了回報隨著我們在這些群體中的頻率增加。

  • Now loyalty, our objectives are really threefold. I think, first and foremost, it's to drive frequency and traffic really with all of our cohorts, but we definitely have heard in all the research we've done, that our younger guests are very, very interested in desiring a loyalty rewards program.

    現在忠誠度,我們的目標真的有三個。我認為,最重要的是,它是為了真正提高我們所有同齡人的頻率和流量,但我們肯定在我們所做的所有研究中都聽說過,我們的年輕客人對忠誠度獎勵計劃非常非常感興趣。

  • The second objective, of course, is to delight our guests and build loyalty over time to have a differentiated program, which I think we can do because we have this unique brand, very experiential that includes both a restaurant and a very special retail experience, so to build loyalty.

    當然,第二個目標是取悅我們的客人並隨著時間的推移建立忠誠度以製定差異化計劃,我認為我們可以做到這一點,因為我們擁有這個獨特的品牌,非常具有體驗感,包括餐廳和非常特殊的零售體驗,所以要建立忠誠度。

  • And finally, and maybe even most importantly, just to unlock the power of that data for everything we do, whether that's fueling our innovation pipeline, our -- obviously, our marketing and everything we do. So I think that is -- those are the objectives of our loyalty program.

    最後,也許甚至是最重要的,只是為了為我們所做的一切釋放數據的力量,無論這是否推動了我們的創新渠道,我們 - 顯然,我們的營銷和我們所做的一切。所以我認為那是——這些是我們忠誠度計劃的目標。

  • Katherine Anne Griffin - VP & Research Analyst

    Katherine Anne Griffin - VP & Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess like sort of to layer on top of that, I'm curious, just if Cracker Barrel is kind of leaning into a newer, younger cohort that's very different, perhaps from the 65-plus in terms of their purchasing behavior or what they like about the brand, how important value is to them.

    好的。這很有幫助。然後我想在這之上疊加一層,我很好奇,如果 Cracker Barrel 有點傾向於一個更新的、更年輕的群體,這個群體非常不同,也許在他們的購買行為方面與 65 歲以上的人不同,或者他們喜歡品牌的什麼,價值對他們有多重要。

  • I'm wondering if there's case to be made that you could maybe push price a little bit more on that customer base as opposed to your -- the 65-plus is maybe pressured in different ways than a younger customer might be. And sort of how you think about how important value is to a newer mix of customers.

    我想知道是否有理由讓你可以在那個客戶群上比你的客戶群多推一點價格——65 歲以上的人可能會以不同的方式受到壓力,而不是年輕的客戶。以及您如何看待價值對新客戶組合的重要性。

  • Jennifer L. Tate - Senior VP & CMO

    Jennifer L. Tate - Senior VP & CMO

  • Well, first, I'd say, whether you're 65 or 25, the things that really attract people to their brand are very similar. They love the experiential nature of the brand. They live our food, they love the welcome. They just love the experiential part of the brand. When it comes to value, I think everybody loves getting a great deal. But what we are able to see is those younger guests are very open to the mix driving initiatives we've done.

    好吧,首先,我想說,無論你是 65 歲還是 25 歲,真正吸引人們關注他們品牌的東西都非常相似。他們喜歡品牌的體驗性。他們吃我們的食物,他們喜歡歡迎。他們只是喜歡品牌的體驗部分。說到價值,我認為每個人都喜歡物超所值。但我們能夠看到的是,這些年輕客人對我們所做的混合駕駛計劃非常開放。

  • So they are very likely to try a crafted coffee like a Latte, or if they're over 21, we can interest them in a Mimosa or one of our signature alcoholic beverages they opt into Barrel Bites, which are Shareables category, our premium size or desserts. So we have been able to entice them into those voluntary check builders.

    因此,他們很可能會嘗試像拿鐵這樣的精製咖啡,或者如果他們超過 21 歲,我們可以讓他們對含羞草或我們的一種招牌酒精飲料感興趣,他們會選擇 Barrel Bites,這是 Shareables 類別,我們的優質尺寸或甜點。所以我們已經能夠吸引他們加入那些自願的支票建設者。

  • And so they are very likely to opt in to trying new things, higher-priced entrees and of course, add-ons.

    因此,他們很可能會選擇嘗試新事物、價格更高的主菜,當然還有附加服務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Sandy Cochran for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Sandy Cochran 作閉幕詞。

  • Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

    Sandra Brophy Cochran - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you all for joining us today. I'm encouraged by our start of the year and remain confident in our plans to drive improved performance over the balance of the year. We appreciate your interest and support and wish you all a safe and happy holiday season.

    感謝大家今天加入我們。我對今年的開始感到鼓舞,並對我們在今年餘下時間推動業績改善的計劃充滿信心。我們感謝您的關注和支持,並祝大家度過一個安全快樂的假期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。