Calix Inc (CALX) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Calix Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Calix 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Tom Dinges, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹投資者關係總監湯姆‧丁格斯(Tom Dinges)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2020 earnings call. Today on the call, we have CEO, Carl Russo; Chief Financial Officer, Cory Sindelar; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Michael Weening.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝您參加我們的 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議由執行長卡爾魯索 (Carl Russo) 主持。財務長科里‧辛德拉 (Cory Sindelar)；以及總裁兼營運長邁克爾·維寧。

As a reminder, yesterday, after the close of market, we released our Letter to Stockholders in an 8-K filing as well as on the Investor Relations section of the Calix website. This conference call will be made available for audio replay in the Investor Relations section of the Calix website.

謹此提醒，昨天收盤後，我們以 8-K 文件形式以及 Calix 網站的投資者關係部分發布了致股東的信函。本次電話會議將在 Calix 網站的投資者關係部分提供音訊重播。

Before I turn the call over to Carl and Cory for their brief opening remarks, I want to remind you that in this call, we refer to forward-looking statements, which include all statements we make about our future financial and operating performance, growth strategy and market outlook, and actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results and trends to differ materially are set forth in our fourth quarter 2020 letter to stockholders and in our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC. Calix assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of their respective dates.

在我將電話轉交給卡爾和科里進行簡短的開場白之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議中，我們指的是前瞻性陳述，其中包括我們對未來財務和營運業績、成長策略所做的所有陳述和市場前景，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中預期的結果有重大差異。我們在 2020 年第四季致股東的信函以及向 SEC 提交的年度和季度報告中闡述了可能導致實際結果和趨勢出現重大差異的因素。Calix 不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，這些陳述僅代表各自日期的情況。

Also on this conference call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in our letter to stockholders. Unless otherwise stated on this call, we will reference non-GAAP measures.

此外，在本次電話會議上，我們還將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。我們致股東的信中包含了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的調整。除非本次電話會議另有說明，否則我們將參考非公認會計原則衡量標準。

With that, let me turn the call over to Carl. Carl?

接下來，讓我把電話轉給卡爾。卡爾？

Thanks, Tom. In a year of record achievements, it is only fitting that we closed the year with many new records in the fourth quarter. As we continue to ramp our All Platform company, we should expect to see more records set and as such, I will refrain from calling them out too often. However, in the fourth quarter, we achieved record revenue without a single 10% customer. The diversity of our customer base is a clear indication of how far we have come in the pursuit of our All Platform model.

謝謝，湯姆。在取得創紀錄成就的一年中，我們在第四季以許多新紀錄結束了這一年，這是再合適不過的了。隨著我們繼續發展我們的全平台公司，我們應該期望看到更多的記錄，因此，我不會太頻繁地提及它們。然而，在第四季度，我們在沒有 10% 客戶的情況下實現了創紀錄的收入。我們客戶群的多樣性清楚地表明我們在追求全平台模式方面已經走了多遠。

Calix cloud and software platforms enable service providers of all types and sizes to innovate and transform. Our customers utilize real-time data and insights to simplify their businesses and deliver experiences that excite their subscribers. The resulting growth in subscriber acquisition, loyalty and revenue creates more value for their businesses and communities. We are resolute in our belief that if we help our customers build more value, they will enable us to build ours.

Calix 雲端和軟體平台使各種類型和規模的服務供應商能夠進行創新和轉型。我們的客戶利用即時數據和見解來簡化業務並提供訂閱者興奮的體驗。由此帶來的用戶獲取、忠誠度和收入的成長為他們的企業和社群創造了更多價值。我們堅信，如果我們幫助客戶創造更多價值，他們也將使我們能夠創造自己的價值。

While 2020 was an unanticipated and unusual year, we believe 2021 will be unusual in a different way.

雖然 2020 年是出乎意料且不尋常的一年，但我們相信 2021 年將會以不同的方式變得不尋常。

I would like Cory to give you an understanding of how we are viewing 2021 from this early vantage point. Cory?

我想讓科里讓您了解我們如何從這個早期的角度看待 2021 年。科里？

Thanks, Carl. As Carl stated, 2020 was an unanticipated and unusual year. For Calix, it was a very strong year in many respects. And we believe 2021 will be another strong year, with customers continuing to adopt our All Platform offerings.

謝謝，卡爾。正如卡爾所說，2020年是意想不到的、不尋常的一年。對 Calix 來說，今年在許多方面都是非常強勁的一年。我們相信 2021 年將是另一個強勁的一年，客戶將繼續採用我們的全平台產品。

At this time, we see our revenue growth for 2021 at the upper end of our target financial model range of 5% to 10%.

目前，我們預計 2021 年的營收成長處於目標財務模型範圍的上限 5% 至 10%。

2020 was not without its challenges, especially when it comes to our supply chain and logistics. Over the course of 2020, the supply chain team outperformed, and you see that outperformance reflected in our results over the past several quarters. However, with recent shifts in lead times for a number of key components, along with logistical challenges related to shipping container and air freight availability, the likelihood that we can continue to outperform to the level we reported over the last several quarters has become more challenging. The impact of this more challenging supply chain environment in 2021 will be most visible and pronounced on the gross margin line. We expect elevated expedite fees and increased shipping and logistic costs will weigh on our gross margin through the end of 2021. And just yesterday, we are informed by one of our key silicon providers of significant price increases.

2020 年並非沒有挑戰，尤其是在我們的供應鏈和物流方面。2020 年，供應鏈團隊表現出色，您會看到這種出色表現反映在我們過去幾季的業績中。然而，隨著最近許多關鍵零件的交貨時間發生變化，以及與海運貨櫃和空運可用性相關的物流挑戰，我們繼續超越過去幾季報告的水平的可能性變得更具挑戰性。2021 年，這種更具挑戰性的供應鏈環境對毛利率的影響將最為明顯。我們預計，到 2021 年底，加急費的上漲以及運輸和物流成本的增加將影響我們的毛利率。就在昨天，我們的一家主要晶片供應商通知我們價格大幅上漲。

Given the constrained silicon supply chain, we expect to see more price increases from other vendors in the near future. Our gross margin guidance for the first quarter of 2021 reflects all of these higher costs. Due to these higher costs, our target model gross margin improvement of 100 to 200 basis points per annum will be a challenge for us in 2021.

鑑於矽供應鏈有限，我們預計在不久的將來其他供應商將進一步漲價。我們 2021 年第一季的毛利率指引反映了所有這些較高的成本。由於成本較高，我們的目標模型毛利率每年提高 100 至 200 個基點將在 2021 年對我們構成挑戰。

Aside from these 2 updates, we have no further comment on our target financial model.

除了這兩項更新外，我們對目標財務模型沒有進一步評論。

Let me turn it back over to Carl for his concluding remarks.

讓我把它轉回給卡爾做總結發言。

Thanks, Cory. While we have been on a journey to reach this point, we are just getting started, and our people will continue to drive us forward. To fully realize our potential, we must continue to grow our talent and nurture our culture.

謝謝，科里。雖然我們一直在努力達到這一點，但我們才剛剛開始，我們的員工將繼續推動我們前進。為了充分發揮我們的潛力，我們必須繼續發展我們的人才並培養我們的文化。

In recent months, Calix has received rewards for our diversity, our culture and our leadership. While I will continue as Chief Executive Officer, I am happy to announce that Michael Weening has been promoted to President and Chief Operating Officer. Teamed with Cory and Suzanne Tom, our General Counsel, and over 800 of the industry's best talent, we are well positioned to execute on our potential.

近幾個月來，Calix 因其多元化、文化和領導力而獲得了獎勵。雖然我將繼續擔任首席執行官，但我很高興地宣布邁克爾威寧 (Michael Weening) 已晉升為總裁兼營運長。我們與總法律顧問 Cory 和 Suzanne Tom 以及超過 800 名業界最優秀的人才合作，我們已做好充分準備，充分發揮我們的潛力。

While Cory has outlined some key challenges for 2021, we have the financial foundation to realize our vision, and we are committed to our mission. We rise every day, resolute in the knowledge that as our customers simplify, excite and grow, so shall we.

雖然 Cory 概述了 2021 年的一些關鍵挑戰，但我們擁有實現願景的財務基礎，並致力於實現我們的使命。我們每天都在進步，堅定地相信，隨著我們的客戶變得簡單、興奮和成長，我們也會如此。

With that, let us open the call for questions. Darryl?

接下來，讓我們開始提問。達裡爾？

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of George Notter with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 George Notter 和 Jefferies 的電話。

Congratulations on the results, the guidance, the strength in the business. It's great to see. I guess my question was about RDOF. Looking back, the reverse auction got completed. We can see the list of winners, of course. I'm just wondering what your thoughts are on that list of winners, what the mix of fiber to the prem versus fixed wireless versus satellite looks like?

恭喜您的成果、指導和業務實力。很高興看到。我想我的問題是關於 RDOF 的。回過頭來看，逆向拍賣已經完成。當然，我們可以看到獲獎者名單。我只是想知道您對獲獎者名單有何看法，光纖到預置、固定無線和衛星的組合是什麼樣的？

And then obviously, there's a long-form application process a lot of these operators are going to go through. I'm just curious if there's any likelihood in your mind of dollars being reawarded by the FCC through that process?

顯然，許多業者都將經歷一個漫長的申請流程。我只是好奇你是否有可能透過這個過程獲得 FCC 的獎勵？

And then any changes on your views on timing for RDOF.

然後您對 RDOF 時間表的看法發生任何變化。

That's quite the list of questions on just one subject, George. So let's start with the first piece, which is the technologies that are being talked about as deployed against the $9 billion that was awarded.

喬治，這就是關於一個主題的問題清單。那麼，讓我們從第一部分開始，即正在討論的針對所授予的 90 億美元部署的技術。

If you do the math, roughly 9% of it went to satellite. A little under the remaining -- half of the remaining, so about 35% of it is tied to some form of fixed wireless and then the larger portion is tied to fiber builders.

如果你算一下，大約 9% 都流向了衛星。略低於剩餘部分——剩餘部分的一半，因此大約 35% 與某種形式的固定無線相關，然後更大的部分與光纖建設商相關。

So how do we feel about that mix? Well, I think that mix speaks very well to rural deployments of broadband. Depending upon how sparse or how dense the locations are, any one of those technologies might apply. So that's number one.

那我們對這種組合感覺如何？嗯，我認為這種組合非常適合農村寬頻部署。根據位置的稀疏程度或密集程度，這些技術中的任何一種都可能適用。所以這是第一。

Number two. Just at a high level, as you know, $9 billion was awarded out of the more than $20 billion available, so very clearly, there was some very aggressive bidding. And so there's a lot of funds that are still remaining to be let, and there's no announcement yet as to how they will deploy those. So let's focus on the $9 billion that was.

第二。如您所知，就高水準而言，在超過 200 億美元的可用資金中，有 90 億美元被授予，因此非常明顯，存在一些非常激進的競標。因此，仍有大量資金有待出租，目前還沒有宣布他們將如何部署這些資金。因此，讓我們關注 90 億美元。

As you know, the long-form submissions -- what's today? So actually, the long-form submissions are due end of this week. The solution details are a couple weeks out on the long form, and then you have to defend your responses. And so it will be interesting to see who passes muster on that, and ultimately, the funding starts July, August of this coming year.

如您所知，長篇提交—今天是什麼日子？所以實際上，長格式的提交將於本週末截止。解決方案的詳細資訊將在幾週後以長形式發布，然後您必須為自己的回答辯護。因此，看看誰通過了這項測試將會很有趣，最終，資金將在明年的七月、八月開始。

From a timing standpoint, there's nothing that's changed in our guidance. We still believe this is a 2022 event.

從時間的角度來看，我們的指導沒有任何改變。我們仍然相信這是 2022 年的事件。

But now let's go back to your question, I think, which was sort of how do we feel about it. In short, we feel good. There's a number of folks, obviously, in the list that we know well, and we feel comfortable that we are well positioned. And some of them, we believe, have a very good chance of passing muster on those reviews.

但現在讓我們回到你的問題，我想，這就是我們對此有何感受。簡而言之，我們感覺很好。顯然，名單中有很多我們熟悉的人，我們對自己處於有利位置感到放心。我們相信，其中一些很有可能通過這些審查。

But my overall message would be, I think, quite congruent with what we have said all along, which is, this is a 2022 event. There are a lot of steps to go through, and we've been through these before.

但我認為，我的整體訊息與我們一直以來所說的非常一致，即這是 2022 年的活動。有很多步驟需要完成，我們以前已經完成這些步驟。

So let me stop there and see if that answers most of your questions.

那麼讓我停在這裡，看看這是否能回答您的大部分問題。

Yes, that's great. That's a very good perspective. I guess the other question I wanted to ask relative to just the market environment, obviously, we had the pandemic. You had this big, big surge in demand around that. I'm wondering if as you look through your customers and you look at their subscriber additions, are those sub additions still coming in and driving your business? Are we seeing any waning of those sub additions? What's the demand like -- environment like for your customers?

是的，那太好了。這是一個非常好的觀點。我想我想問的另一個問題與市場環境有關，顯然，我們遇到了大流行。圍繞這一點，需求激增。我想知道，當您查看您的客戶並查看他們的訂閱者添加量時，這些子添加是否仍然會進來並推動您的業務？我們是否看到這些子添加有任何減少？您的客戶的需求是什麼樣的－環境是什麼樣的？

Yes. My direct answer to your question would be it's improving. We've said pretty consistently, as we get to this All Platform model. We're just getting started. Ours is a land-and-expand model, as you know. And so part of what we were grappling with in 2020 was how much of this was a pull-forward versus how much of this was an uplift of our model and strategy? And obviously, we've now gotten comfortable with it being significantly an uplift.

是的。我對你問題的直接回答是它正在改善。當我們談到這個全平台模型時，我們已經說得很一致了。我們才剛開始。如您所知，我們的模式是土地擴張模式。因此，我們在 2020 年要解決的問題是，其中有多少是前推，有多少是我們的模型和策略的提升？顯然，我們現在已經習慣了它的顯著提升。

You heard Cory in his comments say that we're getting comfortable now, not at 5%, which is where we were 91 days ago, but actually going towards the upper end of our 5% to 10% range, meaning closer to 10% growth.

你聽到 Cory 在他的評論中說，我們現在正在變得舒適，不是 91 天前的 5%，而是實際上正在接近 5% 到 10% 範圍的上限，這意味著接近 10%。

So I guess my overall answer would be that we are much more comfortable with the demand and our go-forward strategy.

所以我想我的整體答案是，我們對需求和我們的前進策略更加滿意。

Cory, I don't know if you want to add any color to that?

Cory，我不知道你是否想為此添加一些色彩？

No. I think you've nailed it.

不。我想你已經成功了。

George, does that answer to your question?

喬治，這能回答你的問題嗎？

It does.

確實如此。

(Operator Instructions) Our next questions comes from the line of Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Paul Silverstein 和 Cowen 的線路。

On the gross margin comment, you did 50.9% in 2020. Are you expecting that to go down in 2021 or just not to go up?

毛利率評論上，2020年你們做到了50.9%。您預計 2021 年這數字會下降還是不會上升？

I'm going to repeat what Cory said, and I'm going to ask Cory to make some comments. I think the overall tone of what Cory said was the 100 to 200 is going to be a challenge. My words would be: and we're up for it, but it's going to be a fight. But maybe there's some other admonishments or further detail, Cory, that you might want to add.

我將重複科里所說的話，並請科里發表一些評論。我認為 Cory 所說的 100 到 200 的整體基調將是一個挑戰。我的話是：我們已經做好了準備，但這將是一場戰鬥。但科里，您可能還想補充一些其他警告或進一步的細節。

Yes, sure. Yes, Paul, so we think we will actually increase margins throughout the year, but at a much reduced rate. I mean in the last several years, we've been expanding margins at 500, 600 basis points. And we're saying, given the supply challenges and the constraints, it's going to be a fight all year long. Just in the first 3 weeks of this year, it's been a much, much more difficult environment than 2020. We've seen freight costs go up across the board, whether it's boats, airs, it doesn't matter. The rates are going up. The component lead times are pushing out. And just most recently, we're starting to get price increases on our components.

是的，當然。是的，保羅，所以我們認為我們全年的利潤率實際上會增加，但幅度會大大降低。我的意思是，在過去幾年中，我們的利潤率一直在擴大 500,600 個基點。我們說，考慮到供應挑戰和限制，這將是一場全年的戰鬥。就在今年的前三週，環境比 2020 年困難得多。我們看到運費全線上漲，無論是船還是空運，都沒關係。利率正在上漲。組件的交貨時間正在延長。就在最近，我們的組件價格開始上漲。

So it's going to be a challenging year. And so we're going to do our best to work through that. But you should not be anticipating seeing the consistent kind of growth we've had over the last couple of years. It's definitely going to slow, and it will be a real challenge to get 100, 200 basis points.

因此，這將是充滿挑戰的一年。因此，我們將盡最大努力解決這個問題。但你不應該期望看到我們在過去幾年持續的成長。肯定會放緩，要獲得100、200個基點將是一個真正的挑戰。

Cory, just to be clear, because there's a huge gap between 500 to 600 basis point improvement, which I don't think any of us were expecting, and no improvement. But to be clear, you're saying even 100 to 200 basis points would be a stretch. You're not expecting to drive 100 to 200? It's going to be something in the tens of basis points? I'm just trying to get a sense for how much improvement, given the challenges that you've addressed?

Cory，我要澄清一下，因為 500 到 600 個基點的改進之間存在巨大差距，我認為我們沒有人預料到這一點，而且沒有任何改進。但需要明確的是，您的意思是，即使是 100 到 200 個基點也有些誇張。您不希望駕駛 100 到 200 英里嗎？會是幾十個基點嗎？我只是想了解一下，考慮到您所解決的挑戰，有多少改進？

I'll just reiterate what we said, Paul, is that we still think we can grow between 100 and 200, albeit it will be a challenge. We're going to fight to get there.

保羅，我重申我們所說的話，我們仍然認為我們可以在 100 到 200 之間成長，儘管這將是一個挑戰。我們要為到達那裡而奮鬥。

Yes. So let me add to that. Right now, we're trying to figure out how to hit our model. I think that's basically it, and we're up for the challenge. I'll say this. Thank heavens for a highly differentiated, highly valuable software platform business that, from a mix standpoint, gives us the opportunity to go fight these headwinds. But I think Cory is characterizing it correctly. 100 to 200 basis points is our targeted model. We've got work to do, but we're not moving away from that model, Paul.

是的。讓我補充一下。現在，我們正在嘗試找出如何實現我們的模型。我認為基本上就是這樣，我們已經準備好迎接挑戰。我就這麼說吧。感謝上帝提供了高度差異化、高價值的軟體平台業務，從混合的角度來看，它讓我們有機會對抗這些逆風。但我認為科里的描述是正確的。100到200個基點是我們的目標模型。我們還有工作要做，但我們不會放棄這種模式，保羅。

All right. I appreciate that. Two other quick questions, if I may.

好的。我很感激。如果可以的話，還有兩個簡單的問題。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

It's been a long time since non-U. S. mattered to your business. And while U.S. continues to drive the boat, you just had a second straight quarter of a $20-plus million revenue from non-U. S. Is that primarily or entirely city fiber? From the commentary in the CFO letter, it sounded like it was more than just one region. I think I saw reference to multiple regions. But can you give us any color on what's going on in non-U. S., most importantly? And looking forward, how we should think about growth from outside of the U.S. and what's going on there?

距離非U已經過了很久。S. 對您的業務很重要。儘管美國市場繼續領先，但來自非美國市場的收入剛剛連續第二季超過 20 億美元。S. 主要或全部是城市光纖嗎？從財務長信中的評論來看，聽起來這不僅僅是一個地區。我想我看到了多個地區的參考。但你能否告訴我們非美國發生的事？S.，最重要的是？展望未來，我們應該如何考慮美國以外的成長以及那裡正在發生什麼？

You -- good question, Paul, and I understand why the numbers would cause -- would pique your interest. But there's really nothing unusual. It's our customers that are growing. As you know, we've aligned that business to our strategy, and our primary focus remains on North America. But to be blunt, hats off to the international team because they're continuing to outperform. But there's no trend that you should draw from that.

你——問得好，保羅，我理解為什麼這些數字會引起——會激起你的興趣。但確實沒有什麼異常。我們的客戶正在成長。如您所知，我們已將該業務與我們的策略保持一致，我們的主要重點仍然是北美。但坦白說，我要向國際團隊致敬，因為他們繼續表現出色。但你不應該從中得出任何趨勢。

Carl, I'm not trying to be argumentative here, but you just did $25 million plus, almost $26 million non-U. S. That was up from $23 million last quarter. You haven't done $20 million non-U. S., I think, ever. That's 2-plus x what you've been doing in the first half of the year. And so you say there's no change, that's -- I appreciate you saying it's better execution, but better execution normally doesn't drive 100-plus percent, rough, relative to the previous norm.

Carl，我並不是想在這裡爭論，但你剛剛賺了 2500 萬美元以上，幾乎 2600 萬美元的非美國收入。這比上季度的 2300 萬美元有所增加。你還沒有在美國之外賺到 2000 萬美元。S.，我想，曾經。這是您上半年所做工作的兩倍多。所以你說沒有變化，那就是——我很欣賞你說這是更好的執行，但相對於以前的標準，更好的執行通常不會帶來 100% 以上的效果。

Again, I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but I'm trying to understand what's going on.

再說一次，我並不是想讓你為難，而是想了解發生了什麼事。

Well, I appreciate the preamble of your not trying to be argumentative. So let me return the favor. I'm not trying to be argumentative, but there's no -- what I said -- let me be clear, I don't want you to denote that there's any trend here that is being driven by us per se. The team is well focused, well aligned. The trend that I think you're seeing more than anything else is the trend that we're seeing around the world because of the pandemic. And the fact is that's uplifting the business at some level. And I think we're seeing that overseas. But it's also the customer base that we've fought hard to acquire from a land-and-expand standpoint is expanding.

好吧，我很欣賞你沒有試圖爭論的序言。那就讓我回報一下吧。我並不是想爭論，但我說的是，讓我澄清一下，我不想讓你指出這裡有任何趨勢是由我們本身推動的。團隊注意力集中，協調一致。我認為你看到的最重要的趨勢是我們在世界各地看到的由於大流行而出現的趨勢。事實上，這在某種程度上提升了業務。我認為我們在海外也看到了這一點。但從土地擴張的角度來看，我們努力爭取的客戶群也不斷擴大。

So no, I don't think you're being argumentative. I think your interest is in the right area. But I'm just -- I want to make sure it's clear we are not -- there's nothing a priori that we are doing to drive that overtly. It is the team executing upon a more favorable backdrop. Our focus, first and foremost, is in North America.

所以不，我不認為你在爭論。我認為你的興趣在正確的領域。但我只是——我想確保我們清楚地知道——我們沒有做任何先驗的事情來公開推動這一點。這是團隊在更有利的背景下執行的。我們的重點首先是在北美。

All right. One last quick question for me, if I may. On the 85% of revenue that's coming from these smaller customers, 250,000, some of them less. Given that no one of those customers -- I can't imagine any one of them is more than 2% of your revenue, maybe not even that. And so it would take a macro event to move those customers meaningfully one way or the other. They just grew almost 70% on top of 40-plus percent growth in the preceding quarter.

好的。如果可以的話，我要問最後一個快速問題。85% 的收入來自這些較小的客戶，即 250,000 個，其中一些甚至更少。鑑於這些客戶中沒有一個——我無法想像其中任何一個客戶的收入佔您收入的 2% 以上，甚至可能都不會。因此，需要一場宏觀事件才能以某種方式有意義地吸引這些客戶。在上一季 40% 以上的成長基礎上，它們的成長率幾乎達到了 70%。

Is that mostly a function of new subs? Is it mostly a function of additional services, additional products that they're selling, whether edge, the newest product release, whatever? Can you give us insight in terms of where those customers are at in terms of what's driving their revenue and in turn what's driving your revenue?

這主要是新潛艦的功能嗎？它主要是附加服務、他們銷售的附加產品（無論是邊緣、最新產品發布還是其他）的功能？您能否向我們介紹這些客戶在推動他們收入的因素以及推動您收入的因素方面所處的位置？

Yes. I mean what's precisely exciting about it is there's nothing exciting about it. It's literally all categories. So it's existing customers. It's new customers joining us. It's existing customers that have come over to the platforms and now are expanding their subscribers. It is literally very broadly statistically distributed, even inside of what is a broad customer base. And so there's literally no one thing that I would choose to highlight.

是的。我的意思是，它的真正令人興奮之處在於它沒有什麼令人興奮的。它實際上是所有類別。所以是現有客戶。有新客戶加入我們。現有客戶已經轉向這些平台，現在正在擴大他們的訂閱者。從統計上看，它的分佈非常廣泛，甚至在廣泛的客戶群中也是如此。因此，實際上我不會選擇強調任何一件事。

I'll turn it over to Cory, and maybe Michael might want to add a little bit of comment on this as well. It is a broad base. But Cory, do you want to add, and then maybe, Michael?

我會將其交給 Cory，也許 Michael 也可能想對此添加一些評論。這是一個廣泛的基礎。但是科里，你想補充一下，然後也許，麥可嗎？

Yes. I think it's important to note, Paul, that part of the strength there is being driven across the base. We're starting to see our land and expand strategy take off. And so it's just -- we're seeing more people come back and as they're building out their networks, seeing success and wanting to add to them.

是的。保羅，我認為重要的是要注意，那裡的部分力量正在被驅動到基地。我們開始看到我們的土地和擴張策略起飛。所以，我們看到越來越多的人回來，當他們建立自己的人脈時，他們看到了成功，並希望增加自己的人脈。

Michael?

麥可？

I think Carl and Cory said it well. We have a very diverse set of customers. We also have a very broad platform. If you actually look at the 2 platforms that we've been building and pursuing for over a decade, they're now -- they have now reached a level of completeness, which makes them incredibly attractive in the market at the right time. And so customers who in the past may have only considered a part of our business as something to fill out their business needs are now looking at us to run their entire business, to actually go across it and support the entire transformation of their business from their marketing organization all the way back to their access and everything they're doing from a subscriber experience point of view.

我認為卡爾和科里說得很好。我們擁有非常多元化的客戶群。我們還有一個非常廣闊的平台。如果你真正看看我們十多年來一直在構建和追求的兩個平台，它們現在已經達到了完整性水平，這使得它們在適當的時候在市場上具有難以置信的吸引力。因此，過去可能只將我們業務的一部分視為滿足其業務需求的客戶現在正在尋求我們來運營他們的整個業務，真正跨越它並支持他們業務的整個轉型。從訂閱者體驗的角度來看，行銷組織一直回到他們的訪問權限和他們所做的一切。

So when you're in that scenario where you have that wide breadth of capabilities, it means that we have many beachheads into the customers, as Cory stated, and the ability to expand those rapidly as we build those relationships and with our customer success organization, demonstrate over and over again, we put the customer first, and that if they partner with us, that in good times and bad, we will be there to make them successful.

因此，正如科里所說，當你處於那種擁有如此廣泛能力的場景時，這意味著我們在客戶中擁有許多灘頭陣地，並且有能力在我們與客戶成功組織建立這些關係時迅速擴展這些灘頭陣地，一次又一次證明，我們把客戶放在第一位，如果他們與我們合作，無論順境或逆境，我們都會幫助他們取得成功。

And as you should hear from -- yes. And as you can hear from Michael's comment, just to finish, we're just getting started. The opportunity is, we believe, quite large ahead of us.

正如您應該聽到的那樣——是的。正如您可以從邁克爾的評論中聽到的那樣，最後，我們才剛剛開始。我們相信，我們面臨著巨大的機會。

Our next questions come from the line of Rich Valera with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rich Valera 和 Needham & Company 的電話。

Let me add my congratulations to the Calix team on a very nice year. Carl, you had real strong new customer additions this quarter, I think 30, and it's been probably 1.5 years since you had a customer -- new customer count that high. Just wondering if there's anything specific you would attribute that to, any changes in go-to-market that maybe would suggest this higher level going forward? Or is this more in sort of the normal quarter-to-quarter, maybe lumpiness as you might call it in, in terms of new customers added?

讓我祝賀 Calix 團隊度過了美好的一年。Carl，本季您增加了非常強勁的新客戶，我認為有 30 個，距離您擁有客戶以來可能已經有 1.5 年了——新客戶數量如此之高。只是想知道您是否有任何具體的原因，即上市方面的任何變化可能會表明未來會出現更高的水平？或者，就新客戶的增加而言，這更像是正常的季度環比，也許是你所說的波動？

The only quick comment I would make, Rich, is the following, and maybe Michael wants to add some color to this as well. In my view, when we all went virtual due to the pandemic, you may remember us talking about, this is going to be interesting to try and figure out how to get new customers. Servicing your existing customers is one thing, trying to build new relationships is another. But I think the team has done an outstanding job of sort of breaking the code on how to function in this new virtual world.

Rich，我唯一要發表的簡短評論如下，也許邁克爾也想為此添加一些色彩。在我看來，當我們因為疫情而變得虛擬時，你可能還記得我們談論過，嘗試找出如何獲得新客戶將會很有趣。服務現有客戶是一回事，嘗試建立新的關係又是另一回事。但我認為該團隊在打破如何在這個新的虛擬世界中運作的程式碼方面做得非常出色。

But I'll let Michael add some color to that, please.

但請讓邁克爾為它添加一些色彩。

Since I joined Calix 4.5 years ago, we were a virtual culture. Other than our -- maybe our research and development organization and some G&A functions, for the most part, everybody was virtual. And while our sales and marketing organizations would spend a lot of time on the road, those initial forays into work-from-anywhere in the form of we adopted video technology 4.5 years ago, all of our calls were video conferences, all those types of things, that actually really prepared us to enter into the pandemic and not miss a beat. We have been looking at each other's faces on web cameras, like I said, for 4.5 years.

自從我 4.5 年前加入 Calix 以來，我們就是一個虛擬文化。除了我們的——也許是我們的研發組織和一些 G&A 職能之外，大多數情況下，每個人都是虛擬的。雖然我們的銷售和行銷組織會在路上花費大量時間，但 4.5 年前我們採用視訊技術，最初嘗試隨時隨地工作，我們所有的通話都是視訊會議，所有這些類型的會議的事情，實際上讓我們做好了應對大流行的準備，不要錯過任何一個節拍。正如我所說，4.5 年來我們一直在網路攝影機上觀察對方的臉。

And so as we went to this next step with customers and had to serve them in a different way, our digital marketing, which was very strong, but also the way we engaged with each other was just something that we extended to our customers. And so we had lots of customers who weren't used to it. So they had to learn how to use Microsoft Teams and Zoom and Go To Meeting and things like that. We actually ended up spending a lot of time coaching customers on how to be successful in those types of scenarios. And so for us, it's just that where others would see a significant dip in productivity as they tried to work their way through this hard transition. For us, it wasn't a hard transition. It was who we were. And so that turned into a competitive benefit.

因此，當我們與客戶進行下一步並必須以不同的方式為他們提供服務時，我們的數位行銷非常強大，而且我們彼此互動的方式也只是我們擴展到客戶的方式。所以我們有很多不習慣的客戶。因此，他們必須學習如何使用 Microsoft Teams、Zoom 和 Go To Meeting 等。事實上，我們最終花了很多時間指導客戶如何在這些類型的場景中取得成功。因此，對我們來說，其他人在努力度過這一艱難轉型時，會看到生產力顯著下降。對我們來說，這並不是一個艱難的轉變。這就是我們。因此，這變成了一種競爭優勢。

So with regards to how many we'll add on a quarterly basis, there's -- that's quarter-to-quarter other than we're engaging with a lot of new customers. And we'll see.

因此，關於我們每季增加的客戶數量，除了我們與大量新客戶的接觸之外，還有逐季增加的客戶數量。我們拭目以待。

That's helpful. I appreciate that perspective. And then Cory, a follow-up for you on the guidance for this year, and I know you're not guiding necessarily beyond the first quarter. But it seems like there'll still be some pretty unusual dynamics there where the first quarter is going to benefit from revenue that was effectively pushed out of the fourth quarter, likely changing the typical seasonal pattern. So just wondering how we should think about the quarterly profile of the year, given that Q1 kind of got an artificial boost that may boost it sort of seasonally above where it would normally be?

這很有幫助。我很欣賞這種觀點。然後，科里（Cory）是您今年指導的後續行動，我知道您不一定會在第一季之後進行指導。但似乎仍然會出現一些非常不尋常的動態，第一季將從第四季有效推出的收入中受益，可能會改變典型的季節性模式。因此，只是想知道我們應該如何看待今年的季度概況，因為第一季受到了人為的推動，可能會季節性地高於正常水平？

And if you still think you're going to have that kind of supply constraint on revenue in Q1 that would flow into Q2? Or should, maybe, we be thinking about Q2 as maybe actually being sequentially down from Q1?

如果您仍然認為第一季的營收會受到供應限制，而這種供應限制會流入第二季？或者，也許我們應該考慮第二季度實際上可能是從第一季開始依次下降的？

A great, great question, Rich. I think you've nailed exactly what's going on in terms of that dynamic. We clearly have been working towards a higher inventory level. We told you that we would make up a lot of it by the end of the first quarter. You're starting to see that in terms of our balance sheet. Inventory grew by more than $10 million in the fourth quarter. A lot of that was getting some material on boats. So we're going to make up and shift some of that backlog in the first quarter. So obviously, Q1 is benefiting from that pull -- push out from Q4 into Q1.

這是一個非常非常好的問題，里奇。我認為你已經準確地了解了動態中正在發生的事情。顯然，我們一直在努力提高庫存水準。我們告訴過你，我們將在第一季末之前彌補很多。您開始從我們的資產負債表中看到這一點。第四季庫存成長超過 1000 萬美元。其中很大一部分是在船上取得一些材料。因此，我們將在第一季彌補並轉移部分積壓訂單。顯然，第一季正受益於這種拉動——從第四季推出到第一季。

And with the guidance that we provided in our opening remarks, we're setting the expectation that we think we're at the high end of our range. So call that somewhere under $600 million. If we're doing $150 million on the front end, with that kind of guidance, that means there's got to be a dip somewhere along the line.

根據我們在開場白中提供的指導，我們設定了我們認為處於範圍高端的期望。因此，我們稱之為 6 億美元以下。如果我們在前端投入 1.5 億美元，在這種指導下，那就意味著在這個過程中一定會出現下滑。

And so yes, I think Q2 goes down. And then Q4 at this point, looks extremely challenging. We just had lead times for our complex silicon go from 32 weeks out to 50 weeks. So that's going to present some challenges for us in the fourth quarter in terms of supply. We're not looking -- we've got to go work on that. That's out there, and so we're concerned about it.

所以，是的，我認為第二季會下降。此時的第四季看起來極具挑戰性。我們的複雜晶片的交貨時間從 32 週縮短到 50 週。因此，這將為我們第四季的供應帶來一些挑戰。我們不是在尋找——我們必須為此努力。那是存在的，所以我們對此感到擔憂。

So this year, it's going to be much, much more of the same, more where we're supply-constrained and in terms of the demand supply equation, we're going to be constrained on the supply side.

因此，今年，情況將會非常非常相似，我們將更加受到供應限制，就供需方程式而言，我們將在供應方面受到限制。

Well, I want to just amplify what Cory just said on one point. What you heard him say was 50-week lead time, which means as we sit here today, we're done for the year on supply with some of our vendors. We're literally planning Q1 of next year. So this is going to be an unusual year, the exact opposite of last year.

好吧，我想強調一下科里剛才所說的一點。你聽到他說的是 50 週的交貨時間，這意味著當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們已經完成了一些供應商今年的供應。我們實際上正在計劃明年第一季。因此，今年將是不尋常的一年，與去年完全相反。

Our next questions come from the line of Christian Schwab with Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個問題來自克里斯蒂安·施瓦布和克雷格·哈勒姆。

Great, guys. I just have one quick question. As you guys look at your upper end of revenue plan for '21, and just elaborate further by revenue by customer size. Is that just a continuation of land-and-expand and continue to grow with your small customer size? Or are you anticipating some type of recovery from your large customer base?

太棒了，夥計們。我只有一個簡單的問題。當你們查看 21 年收入計畫的上限時，請根據客戶規模進一步詳細說明收入。這是否只是土地擴張的延續，並隨著您的小型客戶規模而持續成長？或者您期望從您的龐大客戶群中獲得某種類型的恢復？

So Christian, let me just -- I'll give you a quick answer. You know from Q4 that we didn't have any 10% customers. And part of that reason was our largest customer had a turn down on their CapEx approach in Q4. We expect that to recover but to be honest, we may actually go this entire year without a 10% customer. And as Cory informed me the other day when we were chatting, CenturyLink in 2020 was actually an 11% customer for the entire year. So we are growing up and around where we think we're going to continue to grow in small and in medium. And I think we'll grow in large, but I don't know that any one of them will be a 10% customer going forward.

所以克里斯蒂安，讓我——我會給你一個快速的答案。你從第四季就知道我們沒有 10% 的客戶。部分原因是我們最大的客戶在第四季度拒絕了他們的資本支出方法。我們預計這一比例會恢復，但說實話，我們可能一整年都沒有 10% 的客戶。正如 Cory 前幾天在我們聊天時告訴我的那樣，CenturyLink 在 2020 年實際上全年的客戶比例為 11%。因此，我們正在成長，我們認為我們將繼續在中小型企業中成長。我認為我們會大規模成長，但我不知道他們中的任何一個人會成為未來 10% 的客戶。

Does that help?

這樣有幫助嗎？

That's extremely helpful.

這非常有幫助。

(Operator Instructions) Our next questions come from the line of Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Northland Capital 的 Tim Savageaux。

Congratulations on the results. A couple of different questions here. I first want to focus on some of the gross margin discussion. And Cory, I don't know if you've kind of estimated -- you mentioned several factors that were providing headwinds. I wonder, in the aggregate, can you give us an estimate of the kind of impact there. It doesn't seem like we could look at Q1 coming down from Q4 as apples-to-apples, given the seasonality in revenue. But I wonder if you might take a swing at kind of aggregating all those issues in terms of basis point maybe headwind on gross margins, and whether you can quantify the magnitude of this price increase that you faced.

祝賀結果。這裡有幾個不同的問題。我首先想重點討論一些毛利率。科里，我不知道你是否有所估計——你提到了幾個帶來阻力的因素。我想知道，總的來說，您能否給我們估計那裡的影響。考慮到營收的季節性，我們似乎不能將第一季與第四季的下降視為同等水準。但我想知道您是否可能會根據基點（可能是毛利率的逆風）來匯總所有這些問題，以及您是否可以量化您所面臨的價格上漲的幅度。

Thanks, Tim. Thanks for the question. So the direct answer is I probably could, but I'm not going to. We have indicated in the letter, we have kind of arranged those kind of in size of significance. You can kind of take that and use that as a benchmark in terms of those impacts. So mix being first and then followed by the expedite fees and shipping costs and the other stuff related to increased out-costs. So you can take a look at our letter for some guidance in terms of size of impact in that regard.

謝謝，蒂姆。謝謝你的提問。所以直接的答案是我可能可以，但我不會。我們在信中已經指出，我們已經安排了那些具有重要意義的規模。您可以將其作為這些影響的基準。因此，首先要混合的是加急費用和運輸成本以及與增加的支出相關的其他費用。因此，您可以查看我們的信函，以獲取有關這方面影響大小的一些指導。

Okay. And well, I guess, if that same dynamic would extend for the year, to what extent -- and this sort of gets to Carl's comments about one of my questions was, would you think you even have a 10% customer in '21? It sounds like it could be no. And I assume one factor driving the strength in gross margins is a higher mix of smaller customers where, in theory, your pricing dynamics are probably better and adoption of new platforms is probably stronger. Do you expect that customer mix to change markedly as you kind of stabilize around this $150 million quarter revenue level for the year?

好的。好吧，我想，如果同樣的動態會延續到今年，會持續到什麼程度——卡爾對我的一個問題的評論是，你認為你在 21 年甚至擁有 10% 的客戶嗎？聽起來可能不是。我認為推動毛利率走強的一個因素是較小客戶的組合增多，從理論上講，這些客戶的定價動態可能會更好，新平台的採用可能會更強。當您今年季度營收水準穩定在 1.5 億美元左右時，您預期客戶結構會發生顯著變化嗎？

I imagine Q4 would be on the high end of what you'd expect the small customer contribution to be. Do you expect that to normalize a bit as another potential gross margin headwind?

我想第四季將處於您所期望的小型客戶貢獻的高端。您是否預計這種情況會稍微正常化，成為另一個潛在的毛利率逆風？

I think the normalization has been continuing as you've seen the distribution. You've asked that question before, and I've said, there's a limit for this at some point when this number gets to be 100%. I don't think we ever get there. We obviously have a set of healthy large customers, a growing set of medium ones. But again, the land-and-expand is really driven by the product set that has high value. And so, for sure, the mix of customers matters, but what's going to drive it in the future is the mix of our platforms. And so obviously, part of what you're hearing us say is we don't have the margin picture sorted out yet.

我認為正如您所看到的分佈一樣，標準化一直在繼續。您之前曾問過這個問題，我也說過，當這個數字達到 100% 時，這個數字會在某個時刻受到限制。我認為我們永遠不會到達那裡。顯然，我們擁有一群健康的大客戶，以及越來越多的中型客戶。但同樣，土地擴張實際上是由具有高價值的產品集所驅動的。因此，可以肯定的是，客戶的組合很重要，但未來推動這一趨勢的是我們平台的組合。很明顯，您聽到我們所說的部分內容是我們還沒有整理出利潤圖。

But one of the ways we deal with the margin picture is, if the product mix continues to drive towards platforms, that helps us fight these headwinds. I will say this, I'm very thankful to be where we are and not to be Calix 1.0 as a box company. Because then there's no cover for these kinds of price increases from vendors. And I think everybody is well aware of what's going on in the silicon space. This is going to be a fight all year long.

但我們處理利潤率的方法之一是，如果產品組合繼續朝向平台發展，這有助於我們應對這些不利因素。我要這麼說，我非常慶幸我們現在的位置，而不是成為一家盒子公司的 Calix 1.0。因為這樣就無法彌補供應商的此類漲價行為。我認為每個人都非常了解矽領域正在發生的事情。這將是一場全年的戰鬥。

Got it. And final question for me, kind of higher level. I mean, obviously, you've had a pretty extraordinary year. From a share price perspective, from a cash generation perspective, balance sheet's obviously very strong, as is your market cap and currency. Given all those factors, the strategic thoughts do come to mind. I wonder if you can update us as you sit here in early '21 on whether a more aggressive approach to M&A might be warranted, given the currencies that you have at your disposal.

知道了。對我來說最後一個問題是更高層次的。我的意思是，顯然，你度過了非常不平凡的一年。從股價的角度來看，從現金產生的角度來看，資產負債表顯然非常強勁，你的市值和貨幣也是如此。考慮到所有這些因素，戰略思想確實浮現在腦海中。我想知道您是否可以在 21 年初坐在這裡時向我們通報最新情況，考慮到您所擁有的貨幣，是否有必要採取更積極的併購方式。

In my career, when this happens, strategic hallucinations occur. And people start thinking, we need to go buy things. I want to be as clear as I can be. As you've heard me say, we believe we are perfectly positioned in front of not 1 but 2 disruptions, that we have the right platforms at the right time and the right offerings, the right processes, the right culture. The opportunity cost of us taking any attention away from that is extremely high, and there's nothing better to ruin attention than to do an acquisition. So we are absolutely focused on the growth of our business.

在我的職業生涯中，當這種情況發生時，就會出現戰略幻覺。人們開始思考，我們需要去買東西。我想盡可能說清楚。正如您所聽到的，我們相信我們在面對不是 1 而是 2 種顛覆時處於完美位置，我們在正確的時間擁有正確的平台、正確的產品、正確的流程和正確的文化。如果我們分散注意力，機會成本就非常高，沒有什麼比收購更能破壞注意力了。因此，我們絕對專注於我們業務的成長。

And to be perfectly blunt, Michael's promotion at this time is built around a team that's been, frankly, executing with excellence. And Michael has been a core and key part of that. And I want to make sure that we continue that execution going forward. So we are very focused on simply executing on the model.

坦白說，邁克爾這次的晉升是圍繞著一支坦率地說表現卓越的團隊而建立的。邁克爾一直是其中的核心和關鍵部分。我想確保我們繼續執行。所以我們非常專注於簡單地執行模型。

So thanks for asking, Tim, so that I could make it clear.

謝謝你的提問，提姆，這樣我就可以說清楚了。

My pleasure. Congrats again.

我的榮幸。再次恭喜。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝，蒂姆。

Our next questions comes from the line of Paul Silverstein with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自保羅·西爾弗斯坦和考恩的對話。

First off, how much revenue -- can you quantify how much revenue you think you're not going to be able to realize because of the supply logistics situation?

首先，有多少收入——您能否量化您認為由於供應物流狀況而無法實現的收入？

No.

不。

No, you can't quantify? Or no, you don't want to share?

不，你不能量化嗎？還是不，你不想分享？

It would be the latter.

應該是後者。

Can you qualitative -- I assume you're talking about a meaningful amount of revenue that you will not -- you don't think you're going to be able to ship?

你能否定性——我假設你正在談論一筆有意義的收入，但你不會——你認為你將無法發貨？

Yes. I mean, look, the qualification is the same thing you've heard for the last 2, almost 3 quarters from us now, Paul, unfortunately. We believe we can continue to drive demand. Supply is a challenge. And so there's some level of supply constraint that's being factored into what Cory said as we look out at 2021. And it's sort of not a hard thing at some level because if you have 50-week lead times, your supply is sort of set. So to ask us what amount would be is, I can't forecast demand that far out. If you're asking, could you do more if you could get more supply? I think the answer to that right now would be yes.

是的。我的意思是，你看，不幸的是，保羅，你在過去兩個、近三個季度裡從我們這裡聽到的資格賽是一樣的。我們相信我們可以繼續推動需求。供應是一個挑戰。因此，在我們展望 2021 年時，科里所說的內容中考慮到了一定程度的供應限制。從某種程度上來說，這並不是一件難事，因為如果您有 50 週的交貨時間，那麼您的供應量就已經確定了。因此，要問我們的金額是多少，我無法預測那麼遠的需求。如果你問，如果可以獲得更多供應，你能做得更多嗎？我認為現在的答案是肯定的。

All right. Secondly, call it normally, one sees services track products with a 4 to 8 quarter or thereabout lag. I recognize the complexion of your services has been changing from lower value, lower margin to higher value. Two questions here. One, should we expect services revenue growth to increase, albeit on a time-lag basis given the significant increase in the product revenue? And margins have been going up in services, where can they get to? Where do you think they'll arrive at from a steady state perspective and when?

好的。其次，通常來說，我們會看到服務追蹤產品有 4 到 8 個季度或左右的延遲。我體認到你們的服務結構已經從低價值、低利潤轉變為高價值。這裡有兩個問題。第一，考慮到產品收入的大幅成長，我們是否應該預期服務收入成長會增加，儘管是有時間延遲的？服務業的利潤率一直在上升，他們能達到什麼水準？從穩定狀態的角度來看，您認為它們會到達哪裡以及何時？

Yes. So in actuality, you'll notice that services -- so first, let me answer the revenue question. Services will march programmatically, and I think they're now at a place where they'll probably track overall revenues. I don't think the percentage of total revenue will shift too much.

是的。所以實際上，你會注意到這些服務——所以首先，讓我回答收入問題。服務將以編程方式推進，我認為他們現在可能會追蹤總體收入。我認為佔總收入的百分比不會發生太大變化。

On the margin question, I'm glad you asked it because there's actually news there. And the news is, if you look at Q4, you'll notice our margins actually tracked ahead of sort of the programmatic growth that's been going on. You should expect our services margins actually in the first 2 quarters of next year to go down. They'll stay in the 30s, but they're going to go down. And the reason is, you heard Michael allude to it in his comments, customer success is very important to us to help our customers achieve their business outcomes. And we actually fell behind our customer success hiring as we were ramping. And we expect to make additional investments in customer success in Q1 and Q2, and then it will go back to programmatic growth. So we'll be in the low 30s and then starting to grow back again. Where can services get to over the long-term? In the 40s, possibly in the 50s. They won't go much higher than that because we're going to continue to invest in the success of our customers. But if they stay proportionally where they are as a portion of revenue, that lower than corporate average gross margin doesn't have a particularly heavily weighted effect.

關於邊際問題，我很高興你問這個問題，因為那裡確實有新聞。消息是，如果你看看第四季度，你會發現我們的利潤率實際上領先於正在進行的程式化成長。您應該預計明年前兩個季度我們的服務利潤率實際上會下降。他們會停留在30多歲，但會下降。原因是，您聽到麥可在評論中提到，客戶的成功對於我們幫助客戶實現業務成果非常重要。事實上，隨著我們的擴張，我們在招募客戶成功方面落後了。我們預計第一季和第二季將在客戶成功方面進行額外投資，然後將回歸程序化成長。所以我們會在30歲以下，然後開始再次成長。長期來看，服務能走向何方？20世紀40年代，也可能是50年代。它們不會比這個更高，因為我們將繼續投資於客戶的成功。但如果它們在收入中所佔的比例保持不變，那麼低於企業平均毛利率就不會產生特別嚴重的加權影響。

Does that paint a picture for you?

這為你描繪了一幅圖畫嗎？

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the call back over to Tom for any closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回湯姆以徵求結束意見。

Thank you, operator. Additional information about future investor events will be posted on the Events and Presentations page of the Investor Relations section of calix.com. Once again, thank you to everyone on this call and on the webcast for your interest in Calix, and thank you for joining us today. This concludes our conference call. Goodbye for now.

謝謝你，接線生。有關未來投資者活動的更多資訊將發佈在 calix.com 投資者關係部分的活動和演示頁面上。再次感謝本次電話會議和網路廣播中的所有人對 Calix 的興趣，並感謝您今天加入我們。我們的電話會議到此結束。暫時再見了。