Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the Cheesecake Factory Incorporated earnings call for Q3 of 2026.

    大家好。感謝各位加入我們,歡迎參加 The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • I will now hand the conference over to Etienne Marcus, VP of Finance and Investor Relations. Etienne, please go ahead.

    我現在把會議交給財務與投資人關係副總裁 Etienne Marcus。Etienne,請開始。

  • Etienne Marcus - IR Contact Officer

    Etienne Marcus - IR Contact Officer

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to our third quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call. On the call with me today are David Overton, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; David Gordon, our President; and Matt Clark, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    各位下午好,歡迎參加我們 2026 會計年度第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有:董事長兼執行長 David Overton;總裁 David Gordon;以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Matt Clark。

  • Before we begin, let me quickly remind you that during this call, items will be discussed based on historical facts. And are considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

    在開始之前,我先快速提醒各位,本次電話會議中將討論若干基於歷史事實的事項。同時,這些內容亦可能構成《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。

  • Actual results could be materially different from those stated or implied in forward-looking statements as a result of the factors detailed in today's press release, which is available on our website at investors@thecheesecakefactory.com and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    由於今日新聞稿中所詳述的各項因素,實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所述或所暗示者存在重大差異。該新聞稿可於我們網站 investors@thecheesecakefactory.com 以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中取得。

  • All forward-looking statements made on this call speak only as of today's date, and the company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements. In addition, during this conference call, we will be presenting results on an adjusted basis which exclude acquisition-related items, impairment of assets and lease termination expenses, and other items. Explanations of our use of non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures appear in our press release on our website as previously described.

    本次電話會議中所作的所有前瞻性陳述僅截至今日有效,公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述之義務。此外,在本次電話會議中,我們將以調整後口徑呈報業績,排除併購相關項目、資產減損與租約終止費用,以及其他項目。我們使用非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的說明,以及與最直接可比 GAAP 指標的調節表,已如前述刊載於我們網站上的新聞稿中。

  • David Overton will begin today's call with some opening remarks, and David Gordon will provide an operational update. Matt will then review our third quarter financial results and provide commentary on our financial outlook before opening up the call to questions.

    David Overton 將以開場致詞開始今天的電話會議,David Gordon 將提供營運更新。接著 Matt 將回顧第三季財務結果,並就財務展望提供評論,之後開放提問。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to David Overton.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給 David Overton。

  • David Overton - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    David Overton - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Etienne. We delivered an outstanding third quarter with revenues once again exceeding $1 billion. This marked our second consecutive quarter of record revenue, while margins and earnings also finished well above our expectations.

    謝謝你,Etienne。我們在第三季交出非常出色的成績,營收再次突破 10 億美元。這是我們連續第二季創下營收新高,同時利潤率與獲利也遠高於我們的預期。

  • The Cheesecake Factory restaurants led our performance delivering comparable sales growth of 15.2% and annualized unit volumes of more than $13.9 million. Comparable sales and traffic growth meaningfully outperformed the broader casual dining industry, underscoring healthy demand for our brand and continued market share gains.

    The Cheesecake Factory 餐廳帶動了我們的表現,同店銷售成長 15.2%,年化單店營收(AUV)超過 1,390 萬美元。同店銷售與來客數成長顯著優於整體休閒餐飲產業,凸顯市場對我們品牌的健康需求,以及持續提升的市占率。

  • Culinary innovation continues to be an important contributor to our sales growth and a key point of differentiation. Bowls and bites are performing well and helping increase frequency. Our broad made-from-scratch menu allows us to respond to changing guest preferences and offer compelling choices across a wide range of price points.

    餐飲創新持續是我們銷售成長的重要推動力,也是關鍵差異化要素。碗餐與小點(Bowls and Bites)表現良好,並有助於提升來店頻率。我們廣泛的全手工現做菜單,讓我們能回應顧客偏好變化,並在多元價位帶提供具吸引力的選擇。

  • Our rewards program, app, and broader marketing efforts are also driving awareness and engagement across the digital and social channels. We are especially encouraged by the traction we are seeing with our younger guests.

    我們的會員獎勵計畫、App,以及更廣泛的行銷投入,也正在數位與社群渠道提升品牌知名度與互動。我們尤其對年輕顧客族群所展現的動能感到鼓舞。

  • The Cheesecake Factory has always had broad appeal, and our ability to attract the next generation of guests reinforces the enduring relevance of the brand. Our impressive sales performance together with exceptional operational execution drove solid flow-through and margin expansion. The Cheesecake Factory restaurant level profit margin increased 240 basis points year-over-year to 18.7%.

    The Cheesecake Factory 一向具有廣泛吸引力,而我們吸引下一代顧客的能力,進一步印證品牌長期的相關性與生命力。亮眼的銷售表現,加上卓越的營運執行,帶動了良好的利潤流入(flow-through)與利潤率擴張。The Cheesecake Factory 餐廳層級利潤率年增 240 個基點至 18.7%。

  • Turning to development, we opened six restaurants during the third quarter, including two Cheesecake Factories, one North Italia, one Flower Child and two FRC restaurants. Subsequent to quarter end, we opened two Flower Child restaurants and one Henry. With 16 restaurant openings so far this year, we remain on track to open as many as 26 new restaurants in 2026. Looking ahead to 2027, we plan to open as many as 27 new restaurants across our portfolio.

    在展店方面,我們於第三季新開出 6 家餐廳,包括 2 家 Cheesecake Factory、1 家 North Italia、1 家 Flower Child,以及 2 家 FRC 餐廳。在季後,我們又新開出 2 家 Flower Child 餐廳與 1 家 Henry。今年迄今已開出 16 家餐廳,我們仍按計畫在 2026 年最多開出 26 家新餐廳。展望 2027 年,我們計畫在整體品牌組合中最多開出 27 家新餐廳。

  • In summary, we are extremely pleased with the quarter and performance of The Cheesecake Factory. At the heart of this success is what has always set us apart, delicious made-from-scratch food, exceptional hospitality and memorable dining experiences. We are excited about the opportunities ahead and remain focused on delivering profitable growth and long-term shareholder value.

    總結而言,我們對本季以及 The Cheesecake Factory 的表現感到非常滿意。這份成功的核心,來自於一直以來讓我們與眾不同的要素:美味的全手工現做餐點、卓越的待客之道,以及令人難忘的用餐體驗。我們對未來的機會感到振奮,並將持續專注於實現具獲利性的成長與長期股東價值。

  • With that, I will now hand the call to David Gordon to provide an operational update.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給 David Gordon,請他提供營運更新。

  • David Gordon - President

    David Gordon - President

  • Thank you, David. Our remarkable sales results this quarter once again demonstrate the strength of our best-in-class operators and their ability to consistently execute at a high level and capture incremental sales, resulting in another record for annualized unit volumes in what is typically our slowest quarter of the year.

    謝謝你,David。本季亮眼的銷售成果再次展現我們一流營運團隊的實力;他們能持續以高水準執行並掌握增量銷售,使我們在通常是一年中最淡的季度,再度創下年化單店營收的新紀錄。

  • Importantly, our sales growth was driven predominantly by outstanding traffic growth of 9.5%, outperforming the Black Box Casual Dining Index by an impressive 940 basis points. Additionally, the improvement has been broad-based across geographies, dayparts, days of the week and channels, with off-premise remaining stable at approximately 21% of sales.

    更重要的是,我們的銷售成長主要由 9.5% 的強勁來客數成長所驅動,較 Black Box 休閒餐飲指數高出令人印象深刻的 940 個基點。此外,改善是全面性的,涵蓋不同地區、不同時段(dayparts)、一週不同日別與不同渠道;其中外帶/外送等店外(off-premise)業務維持穩定,約占銷售額的 21%。

  • This performance reinforces our conviction and our strategy and reflects our continued focus on several key priorities. Best-in-class operational execution supported by industry-leading retention, menu innovation and the ongoing growth and evolution of our Cheesecake rewards and marketing efforts.

    這樣的表現強化了我們的信心與策略,並反映我們持續聚焦於幾項關鍵優先事項。包括:由業界領先的留任率所支撐的一流營運執行、菜單創新,以及我們 Cheesecake Rewards 會員獎勵計畫與行銷投入的持續成長與演進。

  • The Cheesecake Factory is a highly differentiated brand and the breadth and visual appeal of our menu naturally lends itself to engaging and shareable social content. We are increasingly leveraging these attributes to create culturally relevant moments, amplifying organic engagement and discovery and extending the reach of the brand beyond our existing guest base.

    The Cheesecake Factory 是高度差異化的品牌,而我們菜單的豐富度與視覺吸引力,天然適合打造引人互動且易於分享的社群內容。我們正日益運用這些特點,創造具文化相關性的時刻,放大自然流量的互動與被發現度,並將品牌觸及延伸至既有顧客群之外。

  • This provides a meaningful opportunity to introduce The Cheesecake Factory to new audiences and ultimately drive incremental restaurant traffic. Taken together, we believe these efforts create a powerful combination.

    這為我們帶來重要機會,將 The Cheesecake Factory 介紹給新的受眾,並最終帶動餐廳的增量來客數。綜合來看,我們相信這些努力形成了強而有力的組合。

  • Our marketing initiatives are bringing guests through our doors, while our operators are executing at a high level to deliver the distinctive Cheesecake Factory experience that drives repeat visits and builds long-term guest loyalty.

    我們的行銷計畫把顧客帶進門,而我們的營運團隊則以高水準執行,提供獨特的 Cheesecake Factory 體驗,進而帶動回訪並建立長期顧客忠誠度。

  • Our latest Cheesecake Factory opening in Wichita is another great example of the affinity for the brand. The restaurant generated tremendous guest enthusiasm, delivering impressive sales during its first operating weeks, reinforcing the opportunity we seek to continue expanding the Cheesecake Factory successfully into new markets.

    我們最新在 Wichita 開幕的 Cheesecake Factory,就是品牌受歡迎程度的另一個絕佳例子。該餐廳引發顧客高度熱情,在開業最初幾週即繳出亮眼銷售表現,進一步印證我們持續成功將 Cheesecake Factory 擴展至新市場的機會。

  • Now turning to our other concepts. North Italia third quarter annualized AUVs totaled $7.2 million and comparable sales declined 3%. Restaurant level profit margin for the adjusted mature North Italia locations was 13.2% for the quarter versus 15.7% for the prior year. The change was primarily driven by sales deleverage.

    接著談我們的其他品牌概念。North Italia 第三季年化單店營收(AUV)合計為 720 萬美元,同店銷售下滑 3%。本季調整後成熟 North Italia 門店的餐廳層級利潤率為 13.2%,相較去年同期的 15.7%。變動主要由銷售去槓桿(sales deleverage)所致。

  • As I outlined on our last earnings call, we are advancing a number of targeted initiatives aimed at improving sales performance and positioning North Italia for sustainable long-term growth. Our new menu, which was recently rolled out, includes new offerings and more accessible price points designed to enhance value and make North Italia more approachable to a broader range of guests.

    如我在上次財報電話會議中所說明,我們正在推進多項具針對性的措施,旨在改善銷售表現,並讓 North Italia 具備可持續的長期成長定位。我們近期已全面推出的新菜單,包含新產品與更親民的價位帶,旨在提升價值感,並讓 North Italia 對更廣泛的顧客族群更容易親近。

  • We've also refreshed our Happy Hour program with more attractive price points, new shareable dishes and an expanded selection of beverages to deliver compelling value while building on the atmosphere, hospitality and energy that make North Italia special.

    我們也更新了我們的歡樂時光(Happy Hour)方案,提供更具吸引力的價格帶、新的可分享菜色,以及更豐富的飲品選擇,在延續使 North Italia 與眾不同的氛圍、待客之道與活力的同時,為顧客帶來更具說服力的價值。

  • We are meaningfully increasing our media investment in two markets to expand the brand awareness and introduce North Italia to a broader audience. These efforts will allow us to test our ability to translate increased awareness into guest trial and conversion.

    我們正在兩個市場大幅提高媒體投放,以擴大品牌知名度,並將 North Italia 介紹給更廣泛的受眾。這些努力將使我們能夠測試:提升知名度是否能轉化為顧客到店嘗試與轉換。

  • Lastly, we're beginning to implement a kitchen management system designed to improve kitchen throughput, order coordination and execution, supporting a more consistent and efficient guest experience. Collectively, these initiatives address the areas where we see the greatest opportunity at North Italia. We believe they provide the right framework to support improved performance over time and strengthen the brand for the long-term.

    最後,我們開始導入一套廚房管理系統,旨在提升廚房產能(throughput)、訂單協調與出餐執行,從而支持更一致且更高效率的顧客體驗。整體而言,這些舉措聚焦於我們在 North Italia 看到最大機會的領域。我們相信,這些舉措提供了正確的架構,可在時間推移中支持績效改善,並強化品牌的長期競爭力。

  • Flower Child performed extremely well and once again meaningfully outpaced the fast casual segment. Third quarter comparable sales increased 11% with two-year comp sales growth accelerating to 18%. The sales performance drove annualized AUVs of $5.1 million.

    Flower Child 表現極為出色,並再次明顯領先快速休閒餐飲(fast casual)類別。第三季同店銷售成長 11%,兩年期同店銷售成長加速至 18%。銷售表現帶動年化單店平均營收(AUV)達 510 萬美元。

  • Restaurant level profit margin for the adjusted mature Flower Child locations was 20.2% in the quarter, an improvement of 280 basis points from the prior year. Given the strength and consistency of Flower Child's performance, we believe the concept is well positioned for a meaningful acceleration in unit growth.

    本季經調整之成熟 Flower Child 門店的餐廳層級利潤率為 20.2%,較去年同期提升 280 個基點。鑑於 Flower Child 表現的強勁與一致性,我們認為該品牌概念已具備條件,能在展店速度上實現顯著加速。

  • Over the past year, we have invested in the real estate pipeline, leadership team and operating infrastructure needed to support the brand's next phase of growth. With that foundation increasingly in place, we expect to further accelerate development beginning next year. And lastly, we expanded the FRC portfolio with two culinary dropouts, one in Omaha and the other in Salt Lake City.

    過去一年,我們已投資於不動產開店管線、領導團隊與營運基礎設施,以支援品牌下一階段的成長。隨著這些基礎逐步到位,我們預期自明年起將進一步加速開發。最後,我們以兩家 Culinary Dropout 擴充 FRC 組合,一家位於奧馬哈(Omaha),另一家位於鹽湖城(Salt Lake City)。

  • And with that, let me turn the call over to Matt for our financial review.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給 Matt,進行財務回顧。

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, David. Let me first provide a high-level recap of our third quarter results versus our expectations I outlined last quarter.

    謝謝你,David。我先就上季我所概述的預期,對我們第三季的結果做一個高層次回顧。

  • Total revenues were over $1.033 billion, meaningfully above the high end of the range we provided. Adjusted net income margin was 5.1% and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.02, both finishing well above our expectations. And we returned $16.6 million to our shareholders in the form of dividends and stock repurchases. We also generated quarterly net income of $61.3 million and adjusted EBITDA increased 38% from the prior year to $98.7 million, marking another quarter of strong earnings growth.

    總營收超過 10.33 億美元,明顯高於我們提供區間的上緣。經調整淨利率為 5.1%,經調整稀釋每股盈餘為 1.02 美元,兩者皆顯著優於我們的預期。我們也透過股利與庫藏股回購,向股東回饋 1,660 萬美元。此外,本季淨利為 6,130 萬美元,經調整 EBITDA 較去年同期成長 38% 至 9,870 萬美元,這也標誌著又一季強勁的獲利成長。

  • Now turning to some more specific details around the quarter. Third quarter total sales at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants were $754.4 million, up 16% from the prior year. Total sales for North Italia increased 11% to $93 million. Other FRC sales totaled $90.3 million, up 16% and sales per operating week were $120,100.

    接著說明本季更具體的細節。第三季 The Cheesecake Factory 餐廳的總銷售額為 7.544 億美元,較去年同期成長 16%。North Italia 的總銷售額成長 11% 至 9,300 萬美元。其他 FRC 銷售額合計 9,030 萬美元,成長 16%,每營運週銷售額為 120,100 美元。

  • Flower Child sales totaled $56.5 million, up 17% from the prior year. And sales per operating week were $97,500 and external bakery sales were $12.6 million.

    Flower Child 銷售額合計 5,650 萬美元,較去年同期成長 17%。每營運週銷售額為 97,500 美元,對外烘焙(external bakery)銷售額為 1,260 萬美元。

  • Now moving to year-over-year expense variance commentary. In the third quarter, we realized year-over-year improvements across several key line items in the P&L. Specifically, cost of sales declined 60 basis points, primarily driven by lower dairy costs and sales mix related to lower external bakery sales, partially offset by higher beef and seafood costs.

    接著談談費用項目的年對年變動。第三季,我們在損益表(P&L)的多個關鍵項目上實現年對年改善。具體而言,銷貨成本下降 60 個基點,主要受惠於乳製品成本下降,以及因對外烘焙銷售較低所帶來的銷售組合變化;部分被牛肉與海鮮成本上升所抵銷。

  • Labor as a percent of sales declined 80 basis points, primarily driven by sales leverage. Other operating expenses decreased 50 basis points, primarily driven by sales leverage and lower insurance, partially offset by higher incentive compensation and electricity costs.

    勞動成本占銷售比重下降 80 個基點,主要由銷售槓桿帶動。其他營運費用下降 50 個基點,主要由銷售槓桿與保險費用降低所驅動;部分被較高的激勵薪酬與電力成本所抵銷。

  • G&A declined 10 basis points from the prior year, primarily driven by lower professional fees, partially offset by higher stock-based compensation expense, incentive compensation and relocation costs. Depreciation declined 20 basis points from the prior year. Pre-operating costs were $11.2 million in the quarter, compared to $6.6 million in the prior year period.

    一般及行政費用(G&A)較去年同期下降 10 個基點,主要因專業服務費降低;部分被較高的股權基礎薪酬費用、激勵薪酬與搬遷成本所抵銷。折舊費用較去年同期下降 20 個基點。本季開店前成本(pre-operating costs)為 1,120 萬美元,去年同期為 660 萬美元。

  • We opened six restaurants during the third quarter versus two restaurants in the third quarter of 2025. And in the third quarter, we recorded a pre-tax net income of $12.9 million, primarily driven by the final true-up of contingent consideration associated with the FRC acquisition. Third quarter GAAP diluted net income per share was $1.19, adjusted diluted net income per share was $1.02.

    第三季我們新開六家餐廳,相較於 2025 年第三季的兩家。此外,第三季我們認列稅前淨收益 1,290 萬美元,主要來自與 FRC 收購相關之或有對價(contingent consideration)最終調整(true-up)。第三季 GAAP 稀釋每股淨利為 1.19 美元,經調整稀釋每股淨利為 1.02 美元。

  • Now turning to our balance sheet and capital allocation. We ended the quarter with total available liquidity of $585.3 million, including a cash balance of $249.3 million and $336 million available on a revolving credit facility.

    接著談資產負債表與資本配置。本季末我們的可用總流動性為 5.853 億美元,其中包含 2.493 億美元現金餘額,以及循環信用額度(revolving credit facility)可用額度 3.36 億美元。

  • Total principal amount of debt outstanding was $575 million, representing the principal amount of the convertible senior notes due 2030. CapEx totaled approximately $58 million during the third quarter for new unit development and maintenance. During the quarter, we completed approximately $2.4 million in share repurchases and returned $14.2 million to shareholders via our dividend.

    未償還債務本金總額為 5.75 億美元,為 2030 年到期之可轉換優先票據(convertible senior notes)的本金金額。第三季資本支出(CapEx)約 5,800 萬美元,用於新店開發與維護。本季我們完成約 240 萬美元的股票回購,並透過股利向股東回饋 1,420 萬美元。

  • Now let me turn to our outlook. While we will not be providing specific comparable sales and earnings guidance, we will provide our updated thoughts on our underlying assumptions for Q4 2026 and the full year 2027.

    接下來談我們的展望。雖然我們不會提供具體的同店銷售與獲利指引,但我們將更新對 2026 年第四季與 2027 年全年之核心假設的看法。

  • Our assumptions factor in everything we know as of today, including net restaurant counts, quarter-to-date trends, our expectations for the weeks ahead and anticipated impacts associated with holiday shifts. Specifically, for Q4, we anticipate total revenues to be between $1.04 billion and $1.05 billion.

    我們的假設納入截至今日我們所掌握的一切資訊,包括餐廳淨店數、截至目前的季度趨勢、對未來幾週的預期,以及假期時點變動所帶來的預期影響。具體而言,就第四季而言,我們預期總營收介於 10.40 億至 10.50 億美元。

  • Next, at this time, we expect effective commodity inflation of low single-digits for Q4 as our broad market basket remains stable. We are modeling net total labor inflation of low to mid-single-digits when factoring in the latest trends in wage rates and minimum wage increases as well as other components of labor.

    其次,就目前而言,鑑於我們廣泛的食材籃(market basket)仍保持穩定,我們預期第四季有效商品通膨(effective commodity inflation)為低個位數。在納入最新薪資率趨勢、基本工資上調以及其他勞動成本構成後,我們的模型假設勞動成本淨通膨為低至中個位數。

  • G&A is estimated to be approximately $68 million. Depreciation is estimated to be $30 million and pre-opening expenses to be $13 million to support 13 openings in the quarter. Based on these assumptions, we would anticipate adjusted net income margin to be about 5.8% at the midpoint of the sales range provided.

    G&A 預估約為 6,800 萬美元。折舊預估為 3,000 萬美元,開店前費用預估為 1,300 萬美元,以支援本季 13 家新店開幕。基於上述假設,在所提供銷售區間的中點,我們預期經調整淨利率約為 5.8%。

  • For modeling purposes, we are assuming a tax rate of approximately 14% to 15% and diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 52.5 million, including dilution from the convertible notes and stock-based compensation associated with a higher share price.

    就建模而言,我們假設稅率約為 14% 至 15%,稀釋加權平均流通股數約為 5,250 萬股,其中包含可轉換票據的稀釋影響,以及因股價較高而增加的股權基礎薪酬所帶來的稀釋。

  • With regard to development. We remain on track to open as many as 26 new restaurants in 2026. This includes as many as five Cheesecake Factories, eight North Italias, seven Flower Childs and as many as six FRC restaurants.

    關於展店開發。我們仍按計畫在 2026 年最多開出 26 家新餐廳。其中包括最多五家 Cheesecake Factory、八家 North Italia、七家 Flower Child,以及最多六家 FRC 餐廳。

  • And we continue to anticipate approximately $210 million in cash CapEx to support unit development as well as required maintenance on our restaurants. Now this CapEx estimate includes some new restaurant construction expenses, which may be classified as operating lease assets instead of additions to property and equipment in the statement of cash flows.

    我們仍預期約 2.10 億美元的現金資本支出(CapEx),以支持新店開發以及餐廳所需的維護支出。目前這項 CapEx 估算包含部分新餐廳建造費用;在現金流量表中,這些費用可能會被歸類為營業租賃資產,而非列為不動產及設備的增加。

  • Before I turn to our 2027 outlook, I want to acknowledge that while we are very encouraged by the Cheesecake Factory's recent sales inflection, it is early and we believe it is prudent to remain measured in our outlook.

    在我談到我們對 2027 年的展望之前,我想先說明:雖然我們對 The Cheesecake Factory 近期銷售的轉折點感到非常振奮,但目前仍屬早期階段,我們認為在展望上保持審慎、適度是較為穩健的做法。

  • As a result, our underlying sales growth and margin assumptions for 2027 are more closely aligned with our historical algorithm objectives. As we continue to gain greater visibility into these trends, we will update our expectations accordingly.

    因此,我們對 2027 年的基礎銷售成長與利潤率假設,將更貼近我們歷史上的演算法目標。隨著我們對這些趨勢的能見度持續提升,我們也會相應更新我們的預期。

  • With that in mind, I will now turn to our initial fiscal 2027 outlook, which reflects what we know today. First, with regard to development, as David mentioned, we plan to further increase development next year. At this time, we expect to open as many as 27 new restaurants in 2027, with roughly three quarters of those openings planned for the second-half of the year.

    基於上述前提,我現在將說明我們初步的 2027 會計年度展望,這反映了我們目前所掌握的資訊。首先,在開發方面,如 David 所提到的,我們計畫在明年進一步提高開發力度。目前我們預期在 2027 年最多可開出 27 家新餐廳,其中約四分之三的開店將安排在下半年。

  • Next, based on our estimates for net operating week growth we are targeting total revenue of approximately $4.425 billion for fiscal 2027. We currently estimate total inflation across our commodity basket, labor and other operating expenses to be in the low to mid-single-digit range and relatively consistent across the quarters. And we expect some modest leverage from G&A, depreciation and pre-opening expenses of approximately 10 to 20 basis points in total compared to 2026.

    其次,根據我們對淨營運週數成長的估計,我們的目標是 2027 會計年度總營收約 44.25 億美元。我們目前估計,涵蓋食材商品組合、勞動力及其他營運費用的總通膨,將落在低至中個位數百分比區間,且各季之間相對一致。此外,相較於 2026 年,我們預期在 G&A(一般及行政費用)、折舊與開店前費用方面,合計可帶來約 10 至 20 個基點的溫和槓桿效益。

  • Based on these assumptions, we would expect full year net income margin of 6.0% to 6.1% at the sales estimate provided, consistent with our long-term algorithm of 25 to 35 basis points of annual margin expansion.

    在上述假設下,依據所提供的銷售額估計,我們預期全年淨利率為 6.0% 至 6.1%,與我們長期演算法所設定的每年利潤率擴張 25 至 35 個基點一致。

  • For modeling purposes, we are assuming a tax rate of approximately 12% and diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 52 million, with the ultimate share count dependent in part on stock price performance. And we would anticipate approximately $220 million in cash CapEx to support new unit development as well as required maintenance on our restaurants.

    就建模假設而言,我們假設稅率約為 12%,稀釋後加權平均流通股數約為 5,200 萬股;最終股數在一定程度上將取決於股價表現。此外,我們預期約 2.20 億美元的現金資本支出(CapEx),以支持新店開發以及餐廳所需的維護支出。

  • Note that the total CapEx estimate includes roughly as many as 5 Cheesecake Factories, 4 to 5 North Italias, 11 to 13 Flower Childs and 6 to 7 FRC restaurants. In closing, what is most encouraging about the quarter is the breadth and consistency of our performance. Our operators are executing at a high level, menu innovation is resonating with guests, engagement with rewards and the app continues to grow and our broader marketing efforts are expanding awareness and attracting new guests to the brand.

    請注意,總 CapEx 估算包含約最多 5 家 Cheesecake Factory、4 至 5 家 North Italia、11 至 13 家 Flower Child,以及 6 至 7 家 FRC 餐廳。最後,本季最令人鼓舞的是我們表現的廣度與一致性。我們的營運團隊以高水準執行,菜單創新獲得顧客共鳴,獎勵計畫與 App 的互動持續成長,而我們更廣泛的行銷努力也正在擴大品牌認知並吸引新顧客。

  • Importantly, these are not isolated drivers, they are reinforcing one another and amplifying the underlying strengths of The Cheesecake Factory, helping us increase frequency and drive exceptional sales performance.

    重要的是,這些並非孤立的驅動因素;它們彼此相互強化並放大 The Cheesecake Factory 的核心優勢,協助我們提高來客頻率並帶動卓越的銷售表現。

  • The impact is evident in our financial results, including record quarterly revenue, healthy flow-through, margin expansion and strong earnings growth. At the same time, we have a robust development pipeline and significant capital to reinvest in the business.

    其影響在我們的財務結果中清楚可見,包括創紀錄的季度營收、健康的流量轉換(flow-through)、利潤率擴張以及強勁的獲利成長。同時,我們擁有強健的開發管線,以及可再投入於業務的可觀資本。

  • Our balance sheet and cash generation provide the flexibility to accelerate unit growth while continuing to return capital to shareholders. Taken together, we enter the fourth quarter from a strong position with multiple levers to support traffic and earnings. We remain focused on translating this momentum into profitable growth and long-term shareholder value.

    我們的資產負債表與現金創造能力,提供了在持續回饋股東資本的同時,加速門店成長的彈性。綜合而言,我們以強勢的態勢進入第四季,並具備多項槓桿可支持來客量與獲利。我們仍專注於將這股動能轉化為獲利性成長與長期股東價值。

  • And with that, we'll take your questions.

    接下來,我們將開始回答各位的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

    我們現在開始問答環節。(接線員指示)

  • Jon Tower, Citi.

    Citi 的 Jon Tower。

  • Jon Tower - Analyst

    Jon Tower - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe starting off, I was just wondering on the labor cost side, you had mentioned obviously seen some leverage year-over-year. It did expand by about 7.5%, I believe, year-over-year in the quarter. I'm just curious if you feel comfortable with that run rate going forward in terms of either percentage growth or even on a per week basis. And from an incentive standpoint, I think you'd also mentioned in the other OpEx line, there wasn't some incentive compensation. So maybe if you could speak to how to think about breaking that out?

    很好。謝謝讓我提問。我先從勞動成本面開始問:你們提到年對年顯然看到一些槓桿效益。我記得本季年對年大約增加了 7.5%。我想了解的是,對於未來這樣的水準(不論是成長百分比或以每週為基礎)你們是否感到有把握。另外,從獎酬的角度,我記得你們也提到在其他營運費用(OpEx)那一行,沒有某些激勵性薪酬。所以想請你們談談,該如何看待並拆分這部分?

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure, John. This is Matt. Thanks for the questions. Just to take the second part first, as we had talked about with investors, we are taking the opportunity to reinvest in our business and in particular, our frontline management that are making these amazing results happen. And so in that other OpEx line, there is about $4 million that would be attributable to that reinvestment in a discretionary one-time bonus.

    當然,Jon。我是 Matt。謝謝你的問題。我先回答第二部分:如同我們先前與投資人討論過的,我們正把握機會再投資於業務,特別是再投資於第一線管理團隊,正是他們促成了這些出色的成果。因此,在其他 OpEx 那一行中,大約有 400 萬美元可歸因於這項再投資,形式為一次性、酌情發放的獎金。

  • With respect to the labor, I think we feel good. We caught up. I mean, obviously, the sales are very high. And so making sure that the restaurants are staffed is super important as we look to maintain our near record high NPS scores even with these volumes. So we feel good about where it's at. I think relative to the mix of the total company, Cheesecake Factory obviously outweighing makes the dollars per week look a little bit different. If you do it by the concept, I think we're feeling pretty good about that.

    至於勞動力方面,我們覺得狀況不錯。我們已經追上進度了。我的意思是,銷售顯然非常高。因此,為了在這樣的營業量下仍能維持接近歷史高點的 NPS 分數,確保餐廳人力配置到位非常重要。所以我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。我認為就整體公司組合而言,Cheesecake Factory 的占比顯然更高,會讓每週金額看起來有些不同。如果按品牌概念(concept)來看,我們對此感覺相當不錯。

  • Jon Tower - Analyst

    Jon Tower - Analyst

  • Got it. And maybe just going to the marketing side, obviously you guys have had quite a bit of success, it looks like, through social channels. And it sounds like you're dipping your toes in a little bit on a market-by-market basis at North Italia. Can you just maybe i think historically, the company has kind of shied away from marketing and I think as a percentage of sales, it's a much lower number than the number of the competitors in the marketplace. How are you thinking about that growing over time?

    了解。再談行銷方面:看起來你們透過社群渠道取得了相當多的成功。而且聽起來你們也在 North Italia 以逐一市場(market-by-market)的方式小幅嘗試。可否請你們談談:我想公司過去在行銷上相對保守,而且以營收百分比來看,行銷費用也明顯低於市場上的競爭對手。你們如何看待這項支出隨時間推移的成長?

  • David Gordon - President

    David Gordon - President

  • Hey, Jon, it's David Gordon. Good to hear from you. Thank you for the question. I think that, first off, Cheesecake Factory has always been a word-of-mouth business, right? Number one for us is to make sure that we're executing as well as we possibly can. So people continue to want to talk about their wonderful experiences and our operators are doing a terrific job doing that.

    嗨,Jon,我是 David Gordon。很高興聽到你的聲音。謝謝你的提問。我認為首先,Cheesecake Factory 一直以來都是口碑驅動的生意,對吧?對我們而言,第一要務是確保我們把執行做到最好。這樣大家才會持續願意談論他們美好的體驗,而我們的營運團隊在這方面做得非常出色。

  • The strategy over the past couple of years, as has been to leverage the new rewards platform and to make sure that our member acquisition and activation of those new members continues to grow and we saw that through all of Q3, great momentum in that program and we have an increased focus on driving frequency, driving repeat visits, using all the data that we've been able to gather over the past couple of years to continue to offer personalized offers for guests who are part of that.

    過去幾年的策略,是運用新的獎勵平台,並確保會員招募以及新會員的啟用持續成長;我們在整個第三季都看到該計畫的強勁動能,並且更加聚焦於提升來訪頻率、推動回訪,運用過去幾年所蒐集到的所有數據,持續為加入該計畫的顧客提供個人化優惠。

  • Rewards program. So we feel really good about where that program sits today. As we launched the app in the second quarter. We continue to see strong adoption of the app moving into the third quarter and really strong engagement, and it will continue to have a growing role in the program, whether that's the digital ordering.

    獎勵計畫。因此,我們對該計畫目前的定位感到非常滿意。隨著我們在第二季推出App。我們持續看到App在進入第三季後仍有強勁的採用率與非常高的互動度,而且它將在計畫中扮演愈來愈重要的角色,無論是數位點餐。

  • Or just direct guest engagement and communication through the app. So rewards will continue to remain a pretty important factor in the Cheesecake marketing trajectory. Certainly, the social engagement in the quarter was strong. Cheesecake continues to be a highly differentiated brand and the breadth and visual appeal of our menu really lends itself to a really great shareable content.

    或是透過App與顧客直接互動與溝通。因此,獎勵將持續是Cheesecake行銷發展軌跡中相當重要的因素。當然,本季的社群互動表現強勁。Cheesecake仍是一個高度差異化的品牌,而我們菜單的廣度與視覺吸引力非常適合產出可分享的優質內容。

  • So we'll continue leveraging that visual appeal to menu and all the social commentary to create those culturally relevant moments and amplify any organic engagement that we can where we feel it's appropriate. Increasing that brand awareness and bringing new guests into the fold.

    因此,我們將持續運用菜單的視覺吸引力以及所有社群回饋,創造具文化相關性的時刻,並在我們認為合適之處放大任何可利用的自然互動。提升品牌知名度,並吸引新顧客加入。

  • And lastly, our traditional lead generation paid search, appropriate influencer engagements will continue across all of our social channels, whether that's on TikTok or Instagram or Facebook, you name it. And then lastly, I just touched on the execution, but I don't really think there's anything more important than ensuring that those new guests that walk through our doors.

    最後,我們傳統的潛在客戶開發付費搜尋、以及適當的網紅合作,將持續在我們所有社群渠道上進行,無論是TikTok、Instagram或Facebook等。然後最後,我剛剛提到執行面,但我不認為有任何事情比確保那些走進我們店門的新顧客更重要。

  • We deliver on the execution promise that have been key to our long-term success and driving sustainable long-term traffic. We have the best operators in the business. Experiential dining is something that we believe firmly in and what guests continue to want and desire and we can deliver and execute because of those operators and their passion for executing for all of our guests, whether they're visiting for that first time because they heard about us in the social channel or they're coming for their 100th time, we're going to continue to earn their loyalty.

    我們要兌現執行承諾,而這一直是我們長期成功與推動可持續長期來客數的關鍵。我們擁有業界最優秀的營運團隊。體驗式用餐是我們堅定相信的方向,也是顧客持續想要與渴望的;而我們之所以能交付並落實,正是因為這些營運者及其對服務所有顧客的執行熱情——無論他們是第一次來訪(因為在社群渠道聽說我們),或是第100次來,我們都將持續贏得他們的忠誠。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Barish, Jefferies.

    Andrew Barish,Jefferies。

  • Andy Barish - Equity Analyst

    Andy Barish - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Yeah, amazing results. Just it kind of feels like October has been a little softer for the industry. I mean, it's not a big month, but just wondering if you would kind of provide any thoughts on the start to 4Q. And I know you mentioned some calendar stuff, Matt, with Halloween on a Saturday and Christmas and New Year's, can you just try to kind of frame up what you think the impact of those may be as well?

    嗨,各位。是的,成果非常亮眼。只是感覺10月對整個產業來說似乎稍微疲弱一些。我的意思是,這不是一個大月份,但想請教你們是否能分享一下第四季開局的看法。另外我知道你提到一些日曆因素,Matt,例如萬聖節落在週六,以及聖誕節和新年;你能否也試著說明你認為這些因素可能帶來的影響?

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • This is Matt and certainly an important question we know for investors there, so we don't give quarter-to-date trends, but maybe I'll take this opportunity to contextualize the Q4 guidance and help people understand how we're seeing the business today.

    我是Matt,這當然是投資人很關心的重要問題;我們不提供季度至今的趨勢數據,但我想藉此機會為第四季指引提供一些背景,幫助大家理解我們目前如何看待業務表現。

  • That guidance considers that the Q3 comp trends are durable and that we see that strength being able to be sticky. But with one little caveat, the last three weeks of the quarter are typically pretty much at capacity for Cheesecake Factory given the holidays and we modeled those just at our pricing of 3%. So just assuming that that would be flat traffic. And so then we took those two parts and deducted 1% for the holiday. So that's kind of how we get to the guide and that gives you a little barometer that we feel pretty good about our business run rate.

    該指引假設第三季的同店趨勢具有延續性,且我們認為這股強勢能夠持續。但有一個小但書:本季最後三週通常因為假期因素,對Cheesecake Factory而言幾乎都是滿載狀態,因此我們在模型中僅以3%的定價因素來估算。也就是假設來客數持平。接著我們把這兩部分合併後,再扣除1%作為假期影響。這就是我們得出指引的方式,也提供一個溫度計:我們對目前業務的運行水準感覺相當不錯。

  • Andy Barish - Equity Analyst

    Andy Barish - Equity Analyst

  • Very helpful. And yes, just on putting this kind of same-store sales number up. I assume it's coming at all like all hours and shoulders and late night, but to your point on capacity at peak, yeah, is there something we're sort of missing that's allowed this kind of huge number in addition to some of the things you've already highlighted?

    非常有幫助。另外,關於同店銷售能做到這樣的數字。我猜應該是各時段、離峰與深夜等全面帶動;但如你所說尖峰時段已接近滿載——除了你已經提到的因素之外,是否還有我們可能忽略、卻能支撐這麼大幅度成長的原因?

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Well, as we noted in the prepared remarks, the breadth of the strength was really one of the key points. And it was across the country. It was every day of the week. It was every day part. As you might imagine, a little bit less on like a Saturday night, of course. But we've talked about the capacity before, while we ran a nearly $14 million AUV in what is historically the slowest quarter of the year for the restaurant industry. We do have restaurants that are of average size that are doing low 20s. And so capacity continues to not be a problem for us, and we were able to deliver on that virtually at every angle in the quarter.

    如同我們在事先準備的講稿中提到的,強勢表現的廣度確實是關鍵重點之一。而且是全國各地。是一週中的每一天。是每個用餐時段。如你所想像的,像週六晚上這種時段當然會稍微少一些。但我們之前談過產能:在餐飲業歷來最淡的季度,我們仍跑出接近1,400萬美元的AUV(單店年化營收)。我們也有平均店型的餐廳能做到2,000萬美元出頭的水準。因此產能對我們而言仍不是問題,而本季我們幾乎在各個面向都能交付這樣的表現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Ivankoe, JPM.

    John Ivankoe,JPM。

  • John Ivankoe - Analyst

    John Ivankoe - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you very much. The question was on development for fiscal '27, and you may have said this, but I just wanted to make sure I can clarify some numbers. So in fiscal '26, we had five Cheesecake Factories, eight North Italias, seven Flower Childs and six non-FRC. So I mean, looking at these numbers, these results, which obviously speak for themselves, it would seem like you would have a significant opportunity to not only step up Flower Child, but maybe even find some more opportunity for cakes.

    嗨,非常感謝。問題是關於2027財年的開店發展,你可能已經提到,但我想確認一些數字。所以在2026財年,我們有五家Cheesecake Factory、八家North Italia、七家Flower Child,以及六家非FRC。因此,從這些數字與這些成果(顯然不言自明)來看,似乎你們不僅有很大的機會加速Flower Child,甚至也可能在蛋糕(Cheesecake Factory)方面找到更多機會。

  • But I asked that in the question that your aggregate development, '27 versus '26 is just up a single unit, '27 versus '26 in '26. So I just want to get it and I guess just a coincidence that the years and the numbers are the same.

    但我之所以這樣問,是因為你們的整體開店數,2027年相較2026年只增加一個單位(店)。所以我想釐清一下;我猜只是巧合,年份與數字剛好相同。

  • I just want to get a sense exactly what the numbers kind of read underneath the surface and if there's kind of a good guide, because we all have the model at this point, there's a good guide or thinking in terms of how much further fiscal '28 could perhaps accelerate as you are signing deals currently today for that out year. Thank you.

    我想更清楚了解這些數字在表面之下實際代表什麼,以及是否有一個較好的指引或思考方式;因為我們目前都有模型了——想請教在你們今天正在簽約、為更遠年度做準備的情況下,2028財年是否可能進一步加速成長。謝謝。

  • David Gordon - President

    David Gordon - President

  • Sure, John. This is David Gordon. Certainly '26, matching '26 and '27 matching '27 is not a strategy, it's a coincidence. But we're excited about opening all 26 restaurants this year and that number for 27 next year, I think is a good mix. We're enthusiastic about accelerating the Flower Child into growth and feel like we're in a very stable vision to be able to do that.

    好的,John。我是David Gordon。當然,2026年對應26、2027年對應27並不是策略,只是巧合。不過,我們對今年開出全部26家餐廳感到興奮,而明年27家的數量,我認為是很好的組合。我們對加速Flower Child的成長感到振奮,並認為我們處於非常穩健的狀態,能夠做到這一點。

  • I know you've heard us mention in the past that we really wanted to make sure that we handled that growth in a way that was quality growth and we're able to execute all those new openings as well as we possibly can, and I think we're in a good place to do that.

    你們過去也聽我們提過,我們確實希望確保以「高品質成長」的方式來推進擴張,並且能把所有新店開幕的執行做到最好;我認為我們目前在這方面處於很好的位置。

  • To your point of Cheesecake Factory. There really is a site-based strategy and as great projects come available, we, to your point can open more Cheesecake Factories. We have all the sizes to be able to do that. The recent opening in Wichita at around 6,500 square feet was very successful. It gives us confidence that that smaller footprint is one that works really well for the operators and can deliver the type of ROI and sales generation that we need.

    至於你提到的Cheesecake Factory。我們確實採取以選址為核心的策略;當有很棒的專案釋出時,如你所說,我們就能開出更多Cheesecake Factory。我們具備各種店型尺寸來支援這件事。近期在Wichita開出的新店,面積約6,500平方英尺,表現非常成功。這讓我們更有信心:較小的店面規模對營運團隊而言運作良好,並能帶來我們所需的投資報酬率(ROI)與銷售動能。

  • So as we look out to '28, I wouldn't expect that '28 is going to match '28, you might see a slight acceleration from there as more sites continue to become available. And we have the capacity certainly from everything we've done in the past at Cheesecake Factory to open up more Cheesecake Factories than four to six a year.

    因此,當我們展望到 '28 年時,我不會預期 '28 會與 '28 完全一致;隨著更多店址持續釋出,你可能會看到從那時起略有加速。而且,憑藉我們過去在 Cheesecake Factory 所做的一切,我們確實具備每年開出超過 4 到 6 家 Cheesecake Factory 的產能。

  • John Ivankoe - Analyst

    John Ivankoe - Analyst

  • And can I ask, how many Flower Childs are you expecting in '27 and where will that leave us on potentially a run rate for the brand beyond '27 in terms of annual openings?

    我可以請教一下,你們預期在 '27 年會開出多少家 Flower Child?以及就 '27 年之後該品牌每年開店數的潛在「年化速度(run rate)」而言,這會讓我們處於什麼位置?

  • David Gordon - President

    David Gordon - President

  • So it would be 11% to 13% for next year.

    所以明年會是 11% 到 13%。

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • That would be roughly, John, this is Matt, roughly 25% increase year-over-year at midpoint. And we feel ready to do that with the people work that has been done. And if that is successful, then we should be able to continue that.

    約翰,大概是這樣——我是 Matt——以中位數來看,年對年大約增加 25%。而且我們認為,憑藉已完成的人才與組織工作,我們已準備好做到這一點。如果這是成功的,那麼我們應該就能持續下去。

  • John Ivankoe - Analyst

    John Ivankoe - Analyst

  • That's great. Thank you, guys.

    太好了。謝謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Salera, Stephens.

    Jim Salera,Stephens。

  • Jim Salera - Equity Analyst

    Jim Salera - Equity Analyst

  • Hey guys, good afternoon. Thanks for taking our questions. Very encouraging to hear about all the new guests coming into the restaurants. I was hoping you could share some details about the frequency, types of things they order off the menu.

    嗨,各位,下午好。謝謝你們回答我們的問題。聽到有這麼多新客人走進餐廳,真的很令人鼓舞。我希望你們能分享一些細節,例如他們的來店頻率、以及他們通常會從菜單上點哪些類型的品項。

  • Matt, I think you touched on this a little bit, but have you seen any restaurants sort of hit the ceiling on capacity and what that might look like even if it's during a specific day part where you can only service a certain number of guests.

    Matt,我想你稍微提到過這點,但你們是否看到有些餐廳在產能上已經碰到天花板?以及那會是什麼樣子——即使是在某個特定時段,你們只能服務一定數量的客人。

  • David Gordon - President

    David Gordon - President

  • Hi, Jim. This is David. As far as capacity goes, historically on those busiest shifts at Cheesecake Factory on a Saturday or Friday night when the wait is an hour, really what happens is it just extends the shoulder periods and we might be busier at 9:00 or 10:00 at night and we're open late night at Cheesecake Factory on the weekends. So there still is even capacity there.

    嗨,Jim。我是 David。就產能而言,歷史上在 Cheesecake Factory 最忙的班次——例如週六或週五晚上等候時間達一小時——實際上發生的是尖峰兩側的時段被拉長,我們可能在晚上 9 點或 10 點仍然很忙;而且 Cheesecake Factory 週末有營業到深夜。所以那裡其實仍然有產能空間。

  • And to Matt's point about the restaurants that are doing $20 million a year in AUVs, there's still capacity. So we have very stable off-premise business. I just mentioned that as well throughout the quarter, 17% off-premise and there's still an opportunity to grow that business. We've seen some growth in the delivery business as well, so there's opportunity.

    而且呼應 Matt 提到的,那些年 AUV(平均單店營收)達到 2,000 萬美元的餐廳,仍然有產能。因此,我們的外帶/外送(off-premise)業務非常穩定。我也剛提到,本季外帶/外送占比為 17%,而且仍有機會擴大這塊業務。我們也看到外送業務有一些成長,所以仍有機會。

  • As far as new guest behavior, they tend to be very much in line with what we see historically. As we did have some good social content around one particular menu item, the Cajun salmon, and we did see a lot of new guests coming in and trying that salmon and fortunately bringing people with them. And when you look at the mix of those tickets, you see guests ordering a longtime favorite Chicken Madeira or avocado red rolls along with trying that Cajun salmon, which may have been the reason that they came in for the first time.

    至於新客人的行為,他們大致上與我們歷史上看到的非常一致。我們確實針對某一道菜——卡津鮭魚(Cajun salmon)——做了一些不錯的社群內容,因此看到很多新客人進店嘗試那道鮭魚,幸運的是也會帶朋友一起來。當你看這些帳單的組合時,你會看到客人除了嘗試卡津鮭魚外,也會點長年受歡迎的 Chicken Madeira 或酪梨紅捲(avocado red rolls);而卡津鮭魚可能就是他們第一次來店的原因。

  • Dessert. Order behaviors continue to remain very consistent as well. Just real quick, I want to clarify on the off-premise of 21%, 17% is to continue to deserve sales as a percentage of sales.

    甜點。點餐行為也仍然非常一致。很快補充澄清一下:外帶/外送占比是 21%,其中 17% 是指外帶/外送銷售占總銷售的比例。

  • Jim Salera - Equity Analyst

    Jim Salera - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Just one thought on one question on marketing. As you lean more into social, can you just walk us through as a kind of percentage of spend, should we see the brand marketing support kind of match their contribution to the portfolio? Or is there maybe a tilt towards Flower Child and maybe some of the lesser-known brands given that Cheesecake Factory, though people are discovering it for the kind of rediscovering in social media is feeling much more prominent in sort of the consumers' mind that they know that brand versus some of the other ones they might not have as much familiarity with?

    很好。我還有一個關於行銷的問題。當你們更倚重社群時,可否帶我們了解一下:以支出占比來看,我們是否應該看到品牌行銷支持大致與其在整體品牌組合中的貢獻相匹配?或者,是否會更偏向 Flower Child 以及一些知名度較低的品牌——因為 Cheesecake Factory 雖然在社群媒體上讓人有種「重新被發現」的感覺,但在消費者心中本來就更顯眼、也更熟悉;相較之下,其他品牌他們可能沒那麼熟悉?

  • David Gordon - President

    David Gordon - President

  • Well, certainly, as we bring the newer concepts into newer markets where they don't have as much awareness, then we would increase that marketing spend, whether that's for a North Italia or a flower. To your point, we really don't have to do that with Cheesecake Factory. Wichita, again, is a good example. Although it's a new market, people have been going to Kansas City Cheesecake Factory for years and the awareness of the brand is much stronger.

    嗯,當然,當我們把較新的概念帶進新的市場、而當地對品牌的認知度還不高時,我們就會提高行銷支出,不論是 North Italia 或 Flower(Child)。如你所說,Cheesecake Factory 其實不太需要這麼做。Wichita 又是一個很好的例子。雖然那是新市場,但人們多年來一直去堪薩斯城的 Cheesecake Factory,因此品牌認知度強得多。

  • So we might have an elevated spend at the newer concepts, especially in those new markets. And as stated in the earlier comments, we are right now doing some pilot marketing to increase awareness in a couple of markets for North Italia just to see if that improves some of the awareness in those new markets even though maybe those restaurants have been there for 6, 12, 18 months thus far.

    所以在較新的概念上,特別是在那些新市場,我們可能會有較高的行銷支出。而且如先前評論所述,我們目前正在做一些試點行銷(pilot marketing),在幾個市場提升 North Italia 的知名度,看看是否能改善那些新市場的認知度——即使那些餐廳到目前為止可能已經開了 6、12 或 18 個月。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sharon Zackfia, William Blair.

    Sharon Zackfia,William Blair。

  • Sharon Zackfia - Equity Analyst

    Sharon Zackfia - Equity Analyst

  • Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to delve a little bit into the younger demographics that you've been so successful with the core concept over late. Do you have any metrics on how durable kind of that customer is? And are you seeing kind of repeat metrics there that would be similar to other cohorts of Cheesecake Factory customers?

    嗨,謝謝讓我提問。我想更深入了解一下:你們最近在核心概念上,對年輕族群的吸引非常成功。你們是否有任何指標可以衡量這類客群的「黏著度/持久性」?以及你們是否看到他們的回訪指標,會與 Cheesecake Factory 其他客群(cohorts)相近?

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey, Sharon, it's Matt. Thanks for the question. We're very encouraged. The data that we have shows that a very large percentage of the guests that are coming in are younger in general. And so it's always important for brand relevancy to continuously refresh that pipeline. It feels a bit early to think about the frequency. We're about four months in, but what we have seen so far is very consistent.

    嗨,Sharon,我是 Matt。謝謝你的問題。我們非常受到鼓舞。我們的數據顯示,進店的客人中有很大比例整體而言更年輕。因此,為了維持品牌關聯性,持續更新這個客源管道一直都很重要。現在談頻率感覺還有點早。我們大概才四個月,但到目前為止看到的情況非常一致。

  • Sales trends over the last four months, right? And so no matter what the cadence has been of some of the organic social, it really hasn't changed our sales trends up and down in ways. We've been very consistent. So that's a very positive, I think, marker for us. And the consistency, as noted earlier, across the country, the dayparts and the days of the week, all of those things tell us that we're doing an excellent job in the four walls when those guests come in and that we are expecting to convert a good percentage of them to be more frequent over time.

    過去四個月的銷售趨勢,對吧?所以不管某些自然社群內容的節奏如何,其實都沒有讓我們的銷售趨勢出現上下波動的變化。我們一直非常穩定。因此我認為,這對我們來說是一個非常正面的指標。而且如先前所提,全國各地在不同時段(dayparts)與一週不同日子的表現都很一致;這些都告訴我們,當客人進到店內(four walls)時,我們的營運執行做得非常好,我們也預期隨著時間推移,能把其中相當比例轉化為更高頻的回訪客。

  • Sharon Zackfia - Equity Analyst

    Sharon Zackfia - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And then Matt, could you give us the traffic and ticket for the quarter?

    好的。那 Matt,你可以提供本季的來客數(traffic)與客單(ticket)嗎?

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. It was 2.4% pricing, a positive 3.3% mix and 9.5% traffic.

    當然。定價(pricing)是 2.4%,組合(mix)正向 3.3%,來客數(traffic)是 9.5%。

  • Sharon Zackfia - Equity Analyst

    Sharon Zackfia - Equity Analyst

  • All right. Thank you.

    好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris O'Cull, Baird.

    Chris O'Cull,Baird。

  • Chris O'Cull - Analyst

    Chris O'Cull - Analyst

  • Thanks and congrats on the strong results. I had a follow-up question related to what's changed in the business. I mean, I've always considered Cheesecake Factory having strong execution, especially as it relates to menu innovation and service. And those aspects of the business seem relatively consistent. Marketing spending also hasn't changed materially, but the effectiveness of that spending clearly has improved. Can you just help us understand what you're doing differently today in marketing than you were a year ago and why it seems to be resonating more with consumers?

    謝謝,也恭喜你們有很強勁的結果。我有一個追問,與業務上有哪些改變有關。我的意思是,我一直認為 Cheesecake Factory 的執行力很強,特別是在菜單創新與服務方面。而這些業務面向看起來相對一致。行銷支出也沒有出現實質變化,但這些支出的成效顯然提升了。你們能否幫我們理解:相較於一年前,你們今天在行銷上做了哪些不同?為什麼看起來更能引起消費者共鳴?

  • David Gordon - President

    David Gordon - President

  • Sure, Chris. Thanks for the question. Well, certainly, I think we're engaging in the organic social content at a greater level and frequency than we were 12 months ago. 12 months ago, maybe we were a little more gun-shy to engage. And today, where appropriate, when appropriate, we're talking about the brand, we're sharing more about what we're doing that's new.

    當然,Chris。謝謝你的提問。嗯,確實,我認為我們在有機社群內容上的投入程度與頻率,都比12個月前更高。12個月前,我們可能在互動上稍微比較保守。而今天,在合適的情況下、在適當的時機,我們會談論品牌,並分享更多我們正在做的、一些新的事情。

  • We've actually taken a new approach in some of our content and how our menu items look in social and we think that's resonating really well with guests also. And I would say the experiential elements of Cheesecake Factory today are resonating as well as they ever have, whether it's the hospitality, the way the restaurants feel, the vast menu and the ability for people to get just about anything they want today and then share that content is really relevant.

    我們其實在部分內容上採取了新的做法,包括我們的菜單品項在社群上的呈現方式,我們認為這也與顧客產生了很好的共鳴。而且我會說,Cheesecake Factory 目前的體驗式元素也一如既往地受到共鳴,不論是待客之道、餐廳的氛圍感、豐富的菜單,以及讓人們今天幾乎想吃什麼都能點到,然後再分享這些內容,這都非常貼近當下。

  • So I think it's a little bit of what we're doing and we're going to continue to do that. We'll certainly will continue to monitor those social channels, influence them appropriately when we think we should. And most importantly, as I said earlier, execute against those new sales and the traffic growth because we don't want it to be a one and done situation, it never has been at Cheesecake Factory, we're building brand loyalty and guest loyalty for the long-term.

    所以我認為這一部分是我們正在做的事情,而我們也會持續這麼做。我們當然會持續監測這些社群渠道,並在我們認為應該的時候,適度地加以引導與影響。而最重要的是,如我先前所說,要針對新的銷售與來客數成長去落實執行,因為我們不希望這只是一次性的成果;在 Cheesecake Factory 從來都不是一次就結束,我們是在建立長期的品牌忠誠度與顧客忠誠度。

  • Chris O'Cull - Analyst

    Chris O'Cull - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then just one more. Matt, sales flow-through at the restaurant level looked lower in the third quarter than in the second, and that's despite the sharp acceleration in sales and if you adjust for those one-time bonuses. So how should we think about flow-through rate in the fourth quarter at the restaurant level?

    這很有幫助。然後再一個問題。Matt,餐廳層級的銷售流轉率(flow-through)在第三季看起來比第二季低,儘管銷售大幅加速成長,而且如果把那些一次性獎金調整掉也是如此。那我們應該如何看待第四季在餐廳層級的流轉率?

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure, Chris. That's a great question, and we're happy to provide that clarity. I think we had talked about Q2 being hyper-productive at that 35% rate, really, as sales started ramping up. And I would say where we were at relatively in Q3, adjusted for the sales, would be similar in Q4. So if the sales trends because some of that in the holidays that were capacity. And so on a weighted total sales basis, we're still talking about 20% to 25% versus that Q2 35%. And I think that incorporates any of the reinvestments similar to Q3.

    當然,Chris。這是個很好的問題,我們也很樂意提供更清楚的說明。我想我們曾談到第二季在35%的水準非常高效,主要是因為銷售開始快速爬升。而我會說,第三季相對於銷售、在調整後的狀況,第四季會是類似的水準。所以如果銷售趨勢——因為假期期間有一部分受制於產能。因此以加權的總銷售基礎來看,我們談的仍是20%到25%,相較於第二季的35%。而我認為這也包含了與第三季類似的再投資。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sara Senatore, Bank of America.

    Sara Senatore,美國銀行。

  • Sara Senatore - Analyst

    Sara Senatore - Analyst

  • Thank you. I just wanted to follow-up, I guess, maybe a question on that, not the margin flow-through, but on the 4Q sort of the outlook and fiscal '27 on kind of unit count versus comp and trying to reconcile those. I think certainly in 2027, it sounds like since you're opening more Flower Child, I think that lower AUV is a bit of a headwind.

    謝謝。我想追問一下,可能是相關的問題,不是利潤流轉率(margin flow-through),而是關於第四季的展望,以及財年'27在店數(unit count)相對於同店(comp)方面的情況,想把兩者對起來。我想在2027年,聽起來你們會開更多 Flower Child,我認為較低的AUV(平均單店營收)會帶來一些逆風。

  • If I think about the comp implied for 4Q, it seems like it's a deceleration, still very strong, but maybe not that 15%, maybe something more in the high singles. And then again, looking out to 2027, the revenue guide is fairly similar, I think, to what you'll end up doing this year, but the mix of stores is a little bit different. So I guess if you could give any kind of help on that on balancing those two things.

    如果我看第四季所隱含的同店成長,看起來像是放緩,仍然很強,但可能不是15%,而是更接近高個位數。然後再看2027年,營收指引我認為與你們今年最終的表現相當接近,但店型組合有點不同。所以我想請你們就如何在這兩者之間取得平衡,提供一些協助或說明。

  • And then just quickly on the converts, this is the first time I think your stock has been well above the conversion price. I know I think you can't call until 2028, but any thoughts on that? Thank you.

    另外很快問一下可轉債(converts),我想這是你們股價第一次明顯高於轉換價。我知道我想你們要到2028年才不能(或無法)提前贖回,但對此有什麼想法嗎?謝謝。

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. Sara, let me just reiterate one point that I think is most important is our guide for Q4, again, to reiterate this, doesn't necessarily call for a deceleration of the Q3 trends through the balance of the quarter. It's only the last three weeks where we feel like we're modeling today at only plus three pricing because of the capacity and we're typically 25% to 30% busier in those weeks than others.

    好的。Sara,我先重申一點,我認為最重要的是:我們對第四季的指引——再次強調——並不一定意味著第三季的趨勢在本季剩餘期間會放緩。只有最後三週,我們覺得以目前的模型來看,因為產能限制,我們只用約加3%的定價(pricing)來建模,而那幾週通常會比其他週忙25%到30%。

  • So I just want to make sure that that's our outlook on the quarter. I think with respect to next year. Certainly, we're modeling that Q1 is going to be stronger than normal, but as we lap back around that you're going to see some tapering as we cross over these really big quarters. And so I think at this point in time, we feel like that's sort of the appropriate level, and we'll continue to update as we see the trends continue into next year.

    所以我只是想確保大家理解,這就是我們對本季的展望。至於明年。當然,我們在模型中預期第一季會比正常情況更強,但當我們回到可比基期(lap)之後,跨過這些非常強勁的季度時,你會看到一些趨勢逐步回落。因此在目前這個時間點,我們覺得這大致是合適的水準;而隨著趨勢延續到明年,我們也會持續更新。

  • I think the convert is, obviously, as you noted in the money, that's the dilution that is predominant in the guidance that we've given for waste. So a little bit of that is respected to the equity comp, but most of it is with regards to the convert.

    我認為可轉債方面,顯然如你所指出,目前已經處於價內(in the money),而這也是我們在所提供的指引中,稀釋(dilution)占比最高的來源。所以其中有一小部分與股權薪酬(equity comp)有關,但大部分是與可轉債相關。

  • At this point in time, what we're talking about is kind of earning into that dilution, and it's early days with where the stock is at, and we'll see how that plays out over time. Certainly, we have tremendous financial flexibility with the cash flow that we have and the balance sheet that we have. So we're in a really good spot. We're happy for our bondholders, we're happy for our shareholders. And we hope to continue to just produce results that keep the bond in that territory.

    在目前這個時間點,我們談的是某種程度上透過獲利成長來「賺回」這個稀釋的影響,而股價目前的位置也還在早期階段,我們會看它隨時間如何發展。當然,憑藉我們的現金流與資產負債表,我們擁有非常大的財務彈性。所以我們處於非常好的位置。我們為債券持有人感到高興,也為股東感到高興。我們希望能持續交出成果,讓債券維持在那樣的區間。

  • Sara Senatore - Analyst

    Sara Senatore - Analyst

  • Thank you. And then just on the okay, I understand. So the weighted sales, I think I was doing the math wrong on 4Q. So understood. Thank you for that clarification. And then on the outlook, right, you said you're lapping. But I guess as you expect, one of the things that we've seen is kind of a positive virtuous cycle where your revenues go up and your spending goes up, I guess, is there. I don't know, any thought on how ROI or ROA on some of these advertising may shift and allow you to maybe maintain faster, greater momentum than perhaps you have in the past.

    謝謝。然後再就——好的,我理解。所以加權銷售,我想我在第四季的計算可能算錯了,所以明白了。謝謝你的澄清。然後關於展望,對,你說你們在做可比基期(lapping)。但我想,因為我們看到的一件事是某種正向的良性循環:營收上升、支出也上升;我想問的是,有沒有任何想法,關於某些廣告投放的ROI或ROA可能如何變化,並讓你們或許能維持比過去更快、更強的動能。

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. So let's contextualize it this way. If you take out sort of the outside sales that we have and we're talking about a normalized environment, again, what we've talked about is having a little bit more ownership of the sales trends vis-a-vis the rewards program and the marketing. And so we do feel good about that. And we would be on a normalized trajectory instead of talking about one to two, maybe talking about a 3% or plus comp. I think that's still our view. And as we approach that lapping point in time, that will be our objective.

    是的。那我們這樣來放在脈絡中看。如果把我們所謂的外部銷售(outside sales)先排除,並假設是在一個常態化的環境中——我們一直在談的是,透過獎勵計畫與行銷,讓我們對銷售趨勢有更高的掌控度。所以我們對此感到樂觀。而在常態化的軌跡下,我們不會只談1%到2%,而可能會談到3%或以上的同店成長(comp)。我認為這仍然是我們的看法。而當我們接近那個可比基期點時,這將會是我們的目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Farmer, Gordon Haskett.

    Jeff Farmer,Gordon Haskett。

  • Jeff Farmer - Analyst

    Jeff Farmer - Analyst

  • Thank you, Matt. I think you just mentioned a low 3% mix at cheesecake. That looks like that's the highest number in years. I might have missed it, but can you help us understand what drove that?

    謝謝你,Matt。我想你剛才提到在 Cheesecake 的低 3% 組合。看起來那是多年來最高的數字。我可能漏聽了,但你能幫我們理解是什麼驅動了這個變化嗎?

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. It definitely is. I mean, I'd to go back into the archives and see if like the post-COVID revenge spending was up there, it might have been. But a couple of things to note. The Cajun salmon with all of those hacks that we know went viral is certainly at the upper end of our entrees. And so we did see a disproportionate sales for that.

    當然。確實是。我的意思是,我得回去翻檔案看看,像是 COVID 之後的報復性消費是否也曾到那個水準,可能有。但有幾點值得注意。那道卡津鮭魚,搭配我們知道在網路上爆紅的那些「小技巧」,確實屬於我們主菜中價位較高的區間。因此我們確實看到那道菜的銷售占比不成比例地提高。

  • I also think it's important to note when you look at the Cheesecake Factory overall and why guests are coming in the experiential nature. In fact, we're up in alcohol incident rates, right? And we're flat on cheesecakes even though we're still at an all-time high. So what we're seeing is that the guests that are coming in, they're not bargain hunters. They're wanting experiential dining and they're getting the full Cheesecake Factory experience, as we say.

    我也認為很重要的一點是,當你看整體 Cheesecake Factory,以及為什麼客人會來,主要是因為體驗式的特性。事實上,我們的酒精發生率在上升,對吧?而起司蛋糕則持平,儘管我們仍處於歷史新高。所以我們看到的是,來店的客人不是在撿便宜的人。他們想要體驗式用餐,而且他們正在獲得我們所說的完整 Cheesecake Factory 體驗。

  • Jeff Farmer - Analyst

    Jeff Farmer - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And just sort of as a follow-up to that. Just in terms of helping us understand sort of the pace, scale, however you want to phrase it, of menu innovation in 2026 relative to what you've done in prior years, you just talked about the success of the Cajun salmon, but have you guys -- is it sort of measurable in terms of what the increase in menu innovation has been? And then how should we think about that pace of menu innovation as you get into 2027?

    這很有幫助。再追問一下。就幫助我們理解 2026 年菜單創新相較於過去幾年的節奏、規模(或你想怎麼描述都可以)而言,你們剛談到卡津鮭魚的成功,但你們——菜單創新的提升幅度是否有可量化的指標?另外,進入 2027 年後,我們應該如何看待菜單創新的節奏?

  • David Gordon - President

    David Gordon - President

  • Sure, Jeff, this is David. Menu innovation has been key to Cheesecake Factory for nearly 50 years now and the cadence of innovation has always been heightened. We're always looking for new ideas, we're always sharing new ideas, we're always working in our R&D kitchen to come up with what's next that we can put on the Cheesecake Factory menu. So that work is always being done and will continue to be done.

    當然,Jeff,我是 David。菜單創新近 50 年來一直是 Cheesecake Factory 的關鍵,而創新的節奏一直都很高。我們一直在尋找新點子、分享新點子,也一直在我們的研發廚房裡努力想出下一個可以放上 Cheesecake Factory 菜單的內容。所以這項工作一直在進行,未來也會持續。

  • The cadence, as the two menu changes a year, and that will be the same cadence moving into the next year and for the foreseeable future, I wouldn't anticipate that that's going to change. The Cajun salmon actually had been on the menu for a while. It wasn't even a new menu item. It had already been on the menu and somebody just discovered it and decided to talk about it a little more loudly than they had before.

    節奏方面,我們一年做兩次菜單更新,明年以及可預見的未來都會維持同樣的節奏,我不預期會改變。其實卡津鮭魚在菜單上已經有一段時間了。它甚至不是新的菜單品項。它早就在菜單上了,只是有人發現了它,然後決定比以前更大聲地談論它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Vaccaro, Raymond James.

    Brian Vaccaro,Raymond James。

  • Brian Vaccaro - Analyst

    Brian Vaccaro - Analyst

  • Thank you, and good evening. I just wanted to follow-up on the other OpEx line in the quarter. You noted the $4 million of incentive bonuses, obviously in the third quarter. But is there a level of bonuses that you've layered into the fourth quarter guidance? So that's the first question.

    謝謝,晚安。我想追問一下本季其他營運費用(OpEx)那一行。你提到第三季有 400 萬美元的激勵獎金。但你們在第四季指引中是否也已經納入某個水準的獎金?這是第一個問題。

  • And then the second one, if you look at the third quarter and you took the $4 million out, it still looks like the cost per week in other OpEx that Cheesecake Factory, other OpEx is still up around 10% maybe, is that higher marketing that we're seeing or are there any other one-time items to call out or maybe that's just line items that are tied to higher sales like credit card fees and rent, et cetera?

    第二個問題是,如果你看第三季並把那 400 萬美元扣掉,Cheesecake Factory 的其他營運費用按週看似乎仍上升約 10% 左右;這是我們看到的行銷費用較高嗎?還是有其他一次性項目需要特別指出?或者可能只是與較高銷售額連動的費用項目,例如信用卡手續費、租金等等?

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Brian, I'll start with that one. I think you nailed it. It's just a higher sales levels. We did also call it higher electricity on a rate basis. So really, those are the two things. On a year-over-year basis, the marketing dollar percentage comparison to Cheesecake aren't really that different.

    是的,Brian,我先回答這個。我覺得你說得很到位。主要就是銷售水準更高。我們也提到電費在費率基礎上變高。所以基本上就是這兩件事。以年對年來看,行銷費用占比與 Cheesecake 的比較其實差異不大。

  • And for the fourth quarter, everything that we talk about in terms of reinvestment is in there. So there is some incentive comp. There's also some marketing. David Gordon talked about that at North. That would fall in the other OpEx line, so there is some continuation of that. As we get the actuals, we'll be able to update everybody on the next call as to what actually transpires in the quarter, but we are forecasting some additional one-time costs there.

    至於第四季,我們所談到的再投資內容都已包含在內。所以會有一些激勵性薪酬。也會有一些行銷費用。David Gordon 在 North(會議)上談過這點。那會落在其他營運費用這一行,所以會有一些延續。等我們拿到實際數字後,我們會在下一次電話會議更新大家本季實際發生的情況,但我們確實在預測中納入了一些額外的一次性成本。

  • Brian Vaccaro - Analyst

    Brian Vaccaro - Analyst

  • Okay. And then if I may, just on a follow-up, with unit growth accelerating at Flower Child, can you share more on what the balance looks like on building out existing markets versus entering new markets? And maybe you could just level set us on the unit economic targets for the brand, sort of targeted AUVs. I know the mature margin is around 20%, but AUVs, expected cost to build, that kind of thing. Thank you.

    好的。那如果我可以再追問一下,隨著 Flower Child 的展店加速,你能否多分享一些在既有市場擴張與進入新市場之間的平衡會是什麼樣子?另外也請你幫我們重新校準一下該品牌的單店經濟模型目標,例如目標 AUV(單店年營收)。我知道成熟期利潤率大約 20%,但 AUV、預期建店成本之類的。謝謝。

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. I'll start with the economics, and then David Gordon can talk about the build-out expectations. Right now, we're super happy, really, to be honest , $5 million AUVs and 20% mature margins on the build-out cost. It's been around $2.8 million to $3 million, and so pretty strong cash on cash returns. And frankly, they continue to accelerate. And so at that level, the business is great, and we'll look to expand the [11 to 13] that we are planning for next year, but the momentum is continuing as you see with their comps and the stacking actually getting better. So there's room in both of those metrics to continue to improve.

    當然。我先談經濟模型,然後 David Gordon 可以談談擴張建置的預期。目前我們非常滿意,坦白說,AUV 約 500 萬美元,以及在建置成本基礎上的 20% 成熟期利潤率。建置成本大約在 280 萬到 300 萬美元之間,因此現金投資報酬率相當強勁。而且坦白說,這些表現仍在加速。所以在這樣的水準下,這門生意很棒;我們也會考慮擴大明年規劃的 [11 到 13] 家,但如你從同店成長以及疊加效應(stacking)其實變得更好所看到的,動能仍在延續。因此這兩個指標都有空間持續改善。

  • David Gordon - President

    David Gordon - President

  • And Brian, as far as the mix for next year, it's probably on 50/50 new to existing markets. And I would expect that to continue. We see some great synergy when we're able to get that second and third restaurant open in existing markets. So we're happy to follow-up in new markets and get a second and third in there relatively quickly. But I would expect that cadence to be probably the same in the outlying years in '28 and '29.

    Brian,至於明年的組合,大概會是新市場與既有市場各半(50/50)。我預期這種情況會持續。當我們能在既有市場開出第二、第三家餐廳時,會看到很好的協同效應。所以我們也樂於在新市場跟進,並相對快速地在那裡開出第二、第三家。但我預期在 28 年與 29 年等後續年度,這個節奏大概也會差不多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Bittner, Oppenheimer.

    Brian Bittner,Oppenheimer。

  • Brian Bittner - Analyst

    Brian Bittner - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks. It seems like based on your '27 guidance, you're still expecting a pretty solid year next year, even with the big first quarter, it still seems like positive comps against tough laps. And so the question is just as you analyze your sales data, are you seeing evidence that you can share with us maybe other than the recent four months of momentum that really gives you the confidence that this won't prove to be just a sugar high for the brand? And what do you believe is the biggest tool that you have to turn this traffic growth into sustainable business moving forward?

    嗨,謝謝。看起來根據你們對 27 年的指引,即使第一季基期很高,你們明年仍預期會是相當穩健的一年,對於艱難的比較基期同店仍然是正成長。所以問題是,當你們分析銷售數據時,除了最近四個月的動能之外,你們是否看到其他證據可以與我們分享,讓你們有信心這不會只是品牌的短暫「糖高」?另外,你們認為把這波來客數成長轉化為未來可持續業務的最大工具是什麼?

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Brian, this is Matt. Thanks for the question. I mean, we're encouraged to cross many fronts, right? I think if you go and you look at how the business is performing, as I noted, we're still near record high NPS scores even with all of these volumes. Guests are coming in for that full experience at Cheesecake Factory. But beyond that component of it, really the underpinnings that David Gordon mentioned are the rewards program and the new marketing.

    Brian,我是 Matt。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是,我們受到鼓舞要在多個面向同時推進,對吧?我認為如果你回頭看看業務表現,如我所提到的,即使在這些量能之下,我們的 NPS 分數仍接近歷史新高。顧客來到 Cheesecake Factory 是為了完整的用餐體驗。但除此之外,David Gordon 提到的真正基礎支柱是獎勵計畫以及新的行銷。

  • And we're seeing the effectiveness of those. We continue to have twice as many acquisitions per week with the rewards program than we did before the launch of the app. So it's important that we're bringing in new guests, but then we're also engaging with them and continuing to drive the frequency. We know guests that are part of the rewards program have a higher frequency. So there's a lot of tail left in that to continue to grow the business outside of some of the social.

    而我們也看到了它們的成效。相較於 App 上線前,我們透過獎勵計畫每週獲取的新客數持續是原來的兩倍。因此,帶進新顧客很重要,但同時我們也要與他們互動並持續提升來客頻率。我們知道加入獎勵計畫的顧客來店頻率更高。所以在這方面仍有很大的成長空間,能在部分社群以外持續擴大業務。

  • But in fact, the social continues as well. It does have a virtuous cycle to it and we see that the more that we engage, the more that we get organic content created by our really rabid fans. And so we have seen that be very consistent and very durable to this point in time.

    但事實上,社群也仍在延續。它確實形成一個良性循環,我們看到互動越多,就越能由我們非常狂熱的粉絲產出更多自然(有機)的內容。因此到目前為止,我們看到這一點非常一致且相當持久。

  • David Gordon - President

    David Gordon - President

  • Brian, I would just add that the tenure of our operators and their ability to execute as well as they have gives us the confidence that. We can take market share and experiential dining today is appreciated as much as ever and I just want to give kudos again to those operators who have done such a terrific job throughout the quarter and will remain really stable in the restaurants to be able to execute on the higher volume.

    Brian,我想補充的是,我們營運團隊的資歷與他們一如既往的執行能力,讓我們有信心。我們能夠取得市占,而體驗式餐飲在今天仍一如既往地受到重視;我也想再次向那些營運同仁致意,他們在本季表現非常出色,並且在餐廳端將維持非常穩定,以便能在更高的來客量下持續把執行做好。

  • Brian Bittner - Analyst

    Brian Bittner - Analyst

  • And just my follow-ups diving into that earnings flow through dynamic a bit more. Obviously, margins and earnings expanded nicely and not taking anything away from you on that, but on the 15% cheesecake comp, I think we would have expected a little more flow through.

    另外,我的追問想更深入了解獲利流入(flow-through)的動態。顯然,毛利率與獲利擴張得很不錯,我並不是要否定你們的成果,但在 Cheesecake 同店成長 15% 的情況下,我想我們原本會預期有更多的流入。

  • And I just want to dive into the labor segment with the cheesecake. When you look at the per operating costs per week operating cost, they really accelerated the same percentage as the comp accelerated from 2Q into 3Q. So that's why leverage was about the same year-over-year in 3Q despite the way higher comps.

    我想深入談一下 Cheesecake 的人力成本區塊。當你看每週的單店營運成本時,它們加速的百分比,幾乎與同店增速從 2Q 到 3Q 的加速幅度相同。所以即便 3Q 同店高很多,3Q 的年對年槓桿改善幅度卻大致相同。

  • So the question is, how do you want us thinking about these labor costs and the variability in them as comps naturally do fluctuate from here? And will there be an opportunity to maybe get more productive with this unprecedented higher sales level you're operating at now?

    所以問題是,當同店增長從這裡開始自然波動時,你們希望我們如何看待這些人力成本及其變動性?另外,在你們目前正營運於這個前所未有的更高銷售水準下,是否有機會提升生產力?

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, I think for one, Brian, it's early in the sales lift to gauge that incompleteness. But we were hyper-focused on making sure the restaurants got to staffing levels to deliver the service and the quality that our guests are expecting. In particular, if you think about these new guests, those aren't the ones we want to be hyper-productive on.

    是的,我想首先,Brian,銷售拉升才剛開始,現在就要判斷那種不完整性還太早。但我們非常專注於確保餐廳的人力配置達到足以提供顧客所期待的服務與品質的水準。特別是如果你想到這些新顧客,他們不是我們想在其身上過度追求高生產力的對象。

  • We want to show them as much love and care as we possibly can to bring them back in. And so we do it all as investing for the future and making sure, and we feel pretty fantastic about the overall flow-through for the year that we're projecting. So you're right. There's going to be quarters where the metrics don't seem quite as outstanding. But I think our view is that a 30% net income gain this year on top of what you talked about, which is a pretty good outlook is leading the industry right now and that's our goal is to continue to make sure we run the business for the long-term.

    我們希望盡可能給他們更多關懷與照顧,讓他們願意再回來。因此我們把這一切視為對未來的投資,並確保——而且我們對今年所預估的整體流入表現感到相當滿意。所以你說得對。會有一些季度,指標看起來不會那麼亮眼。但我認為我們的看法是:今年淨利成長 30%,再加上你提到的那些因素,這其實是相當不錯的展望,且目前領先同業;而我們的目標是持續確保以長期角度來經營這門生意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lauren Silberman, Deutsche Bank.

    Lauren Silberman,德意志銀行。

  • Lauren Silberman - Research Analyst

    Lauren Silberman - Research Analyst

  • Thank you for putting me in and congrats on the great results. I just want to go back to the assumption on traffic being flat during the holidays and the last three weeks, given how busy you are. Is there an area where you can continue to drive positive traffic or are you just at full capacity, like any other times during the year where you're at peak capacity?

    謝謝讓我加入,也恭喜你們有很好的成果。我想回到你們對假期期間以及最後三週「客流持平」的假設,考量到你們現在這麼忙。是否有哪個面向可以繼續推動客流轉為正成長?還是你們就像一年中其他時段一樣,已經達到滿載、處於尖峰產能?

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Lauren, that's a fair question. I mean, again, is there capacity during those weeks? There is, right? I mean, I'm not saying that every restaurant is full on a Tuesday night for all three of those weeks. I think for us, that just seems like a prudent approach at this point in time. And they are markedly more busy, right? There's no doubt about that. They are hugely more busy, 25% to 30% compared to sort of the average weeks in the other parts of the quarter. But hopefully, we'll be able to beat that number, but for the moment, that seems like the right way to model it.

    是的,Lauren,這是個合理的問題。我的意思是,再說一次,那幾週還有產能嗎?是有的,對吧?我不是說那三週的每一家餐廳在週二晚上都客滿。我認為對我們而言,在目前這個時間點,這樣的假設看起來是比較審慎的做法。而且它們確實明顯更忙,對吧?這點毫無疑問。它們忙很多,相較於本季其他時段的平均週,約高出 25% 到 30%。但希望我們能超越那個數字;不過就目前而言,這樣建模似乎是正確的方式。

  • Lauren Silberman - Research Analyst

    Lauren Silberman - Research Analyst

  • Understood. And then just on price, I think you mentioned Q3 is 2.4% and that Q4 is 3%. So just are you assuming 3% Q4 and is that how we should think about '27? Thank you.

    了解。另外關於價格,我想你提到 3Q 是 2.4%,而 4Q 是 3%。所以你們是假設 4Q 為 3% 嗎?而我們應該用這個方式來看待 2027 年嗎?謝謝。

  • Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Matthew Clark - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. And a little bit of that was just the timing of year-over-year pricing. So 3% as a sort of a run rate is good to use for next year as well at this point in time. Of course, we'll reserve the right to update that as we get into the menu change cycle and we see where our costs and sales trends are. But I think for everybody's modeling, that's a good start.

    是的。而其中有一部分只是年對年定價時點的影響。所以以 3% 作為一個大致的運行水準(run rate),在目前這個時間點也適合用來推估明年。當然,等我們進入菜單調整週期,並看到成本與銷售趨勢走向時,我們保留更新的權利。但我認為對大家的模型來說,這是一個不錯的起點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。