花旗銀行 (C) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 淨利 $38 億,EPS $1.86,RoTCE 8%;若排除 Banamex goodwill impairment,調整後 EPS $2.24,調整後 RoTCE 9.7%,營收年增 9%,五大事業群皆創 Q3 新高
    • 全年營收指引上修,預期 2025 全年營收將超過 $840 億,NII ex-markets 年增約 5.5%;但全年費用將高於先前指引,全年效率比(不含 goodwill impairment)略低於 64%
    • Q3 回購 $50 億(高於原先指引),年初至今已回購 $87.5 億,CET1 資本比率 13.2%,高於監管要求 110 bps
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 五大事業群皆創 Q3 營收新高,持續展現正向營運槓桿
      • Services、Markets、Banking、Wealth、USPB 各自有明顯成長動能,如跨境交易、prime balances、投銀費用、投資資產淨流入、卡片創新等
      • AI 與數位創新推動營運效率與客戶體驗,AI 工具已被 18 萬名員工使用,提升生產力
      • Banamex 25% 股權出售推進資本釋放,後續 IPO 路徑明確,有助於資本結構優化
      • 持續投資於科技、數據與轉型,推動長期營收成長與效率提升
    • 風險:
      • 費用壓力高於預期,全年費用上修,轉型相關支出 2025 年仍接近 $35 億
      • 市場業務 Q4 季減幅恐高於過往 15-20% 區間,影響短期營收動能
      • Banamex 交易與 IPO 需經墨西哥監管審批,時程具不確定性
      • 監管環境與資本要求(如 SCB、Basel III)仍有變數,影響資本配置彈性
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Services:營收年增 7%,TTS 與 Security Services 雙雙成長,AUCA 年增 13%,跨境交易量年增 10%,US dollar clearing 量年增 5%,RoTCE 28.9%
    • Markets:營收年增 15%,固定收益年增 12%,equities 年增 24%,prime balances 年增 44%,RoTCE 12.3%
    • Banking:營收年增 34%,投銀費用年增 17%,M&A 年增 8%,ECM 年增 35%,DCM 年增 19%,RoTCE 12.3%
    • Wealth:營收年增 8%,投資資產年增 14%,淨新投資資產 $186 億創新高,RoTCE 12.1%
    • USPB:營收年增 7%,branded cards 營收年增 8%,消費金額年增 5%,存款年增 6%,RoTCE 14.5%
    • CET1 資本比率 13.2%,LCR 115%,流動性資源逾 $1 兆
  4. 財務預測
    • 2025 全年營收預估超過 $840 億
    • 全年效率比(不含 goodwill impairment)略低於 64%
    • 2025 年轉型相關費用略低於 $35 億,2026 年將進一步下降
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 關於轉型進度與合規、風控、數據改善,何時能完成?
      A: 已完成逾 2/3 轉型計畫,風險與合規已達目標狀態,控制自動化顯著提升,數據改善有進展但仍需時間,預期 2025 年轉型費用將下降。
    • Q: Banamex 25% 股權出售與 IPO 時程、價值最大化考量?
      A: 25% 股權出售是去整合與最終完全退出的重要一步,墨西哥監管審批約需 9-12 個月,已啟動申請,後續 IPO 會在取得批准後推進,目標是價值最大化與高確定性。
    • Q: AI、tokenized deposits、stablecoin 等數位創新對業務的影響?
      A: 重點投資於 tokenized deposits,滿足機構客戶跨境、即時、低成本需求,已將 Citi Token Services 與 24/7 清算平台整合,stablecoin 會提供必要的 on/off ramp 與託管服務,但主力仍在 tokenized deposits。
    • Q: 2025-2026 年費用展望與效率比目標?
      A: 2025 年轉型費用略低於 $35 億,2026 年將進一步下降,持續推動營運效率,目標 2026 年效率比低於 60%,同時兼顧營收成長與必要投資。
    • Q: 消費金融與企業信貸風險狀況?近期非應計貸款上升是否為警訊?
      A: 企業非應計貸款上升主因兩個個案,整體比率仍低且有足夠準備金,消費信貸表現正常,85% 消費者為 prime,信用卡損失與逾放率均在預期範圍,維持審慎風控。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello and welcome to Citi's third quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's call will be hosted by Jen Landis, Head of the Citi Investor Relations. (Operator Instructions) Also, as a reminder, this conference is being recorded today. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. Ms. Landis, you may begin.

    您好,歡迎參加花旗 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議將由花旗投資者關係主管 Jen Landis 主持。(操作員指示)另外,提醒一下,今天正在錄製本次會議。如果您有任何異議,請立即斷開連接。蘭迪斯女士,您可以開始。

  • Jennifer Landis - Head, Investor Relations

    Jennifer Landis - Head, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Good morning and thank you all for joining our third quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm joined today by our Chief Executive Officer, Jane Fraser; and our Chief Financial Officer, Mark Mason.

    謝謝您,接線生。早安,感謝大家參加我們的 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有我們的執行長 Jane Fraser 和財務長 Mark Mason。

  • I'd like to remind you that today's presentation, which is available for download on our website, citigroup.com, may contain forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of factors, including those described in our earnings materials as well as in our SEC filings.

    我想提醒您,今天的簡報(可在我們的網站 citigroup.com 上下載)可能包含基於管理層當前預期的前瞻性陳述,並受不確定性和情況變化的影響。由於多種因素,包括我們的收益資料以及美國證券交易委員會文件中所述的因素,實際結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Jane.

    說完這些,我就把麥克風交給簡。

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Jane, and a very good morning to everyone. This morning, we reported another very good quarter with net income of $3.8 billion and earnings per share of $1.86 with an RoTCE of 8%. Now, excluding the goodwill impairment from the Banamex transaction, our adjusted EPS was $2.24 with an adjusted RoTCE of 9.7%. Revenues were up 9% and every business had record third quarter revenue and improved returns. We continue to generate positive operating leverage for the firm and in each of our five businesses.

    謝謝你,簡,祝大家早安。今天上午,我們報告了另一個非常好的季度,淨收入為 38 億美元,每股收益為 1.86 美元,RoTCE 為 8%。現在,不包括 Banamex 交易產生的商譽減值,我們的調整後每股收益為 2.24 美元,調整後的 RoTCE 為 9.7%。營收成長了 9%,每個業務部門的第三季營收均創歷史新高,回報率也有所提高。我們繼續為公司以及我們的五項業務創造積極的經營槓桿。

  • The consistently strong results that we've been delivering are a consequence of how we have fundamentally changed the bank in recent years. We're running the businesses differently and capturing the synergies between them. We've added new senior leaders to complement the excellent talent we already had. We are disciplined stewards of our shareholders capital, investing it where we should and returning what we don't deploy. And the best part is, there is much more upside ahead.

    我們持續取得的強勁業績是我們近年來對銀行進行根本性變革的結果。我們以不同的方式經營業務並捕捉它們之間的協同效應。我們增加了新的高階領導來補充我們現有的優秀人才。我們是股東資本的嚴格管家,將資本投資於應投資的地方,並歸還未使用的資本。最好的部分是,未來還有更多的上升空間。

  • Turning to the businesses, Services had a record quarter with revenues growing by 7%. Increasing growth in cross-border transactions and US dollar clearing reflects the sharp focus we've put on increasing fee revenue. AUCA grew 13%, reaching nearly $30 trillion.

    談到業務,服務業務本季創下了創紀錄的營收成長 7%。跨國交易和美元清算的不斷增長反映了我們對增加費用收入的高度重視。AUCA 成長 13%,達到近 30 兆美元。

  • New client wins and share-gains demonstrate the confidence our clients have in our ability to help them navigate a very dynamic global environment and to lead through innovation.

    新客戶的贏得和市場份額的成長表明了客戶對我們幫助他們應對高度動態的全球環境並透過創新引領的能力的信心。

  • Despite low volatility, markets had a record third quarter. Revenues were up 15% as we continue to drive momentum and traction with clients. Activity and rates was particularly high, and equities grew nicely. With continued progress in prime, where balances were up over 40%, complementing our historical strength in derivatives.

    儘管波動性較低,但市場第三季仍創下紀錄。由於我們繼續推動客戶發展並吸引他們,收入成長了 15%。活動和利率特別高,股票成長良好。隨著主要業務的持續進展,餘額增加了 40% 以上,補充了我們在衍生性商品方面的歷史優勢。

  • In Banking, increased clarity around tariffs and record equity prices fueled CEO confidence. We capitalized on this with investment banking fees up 17%, with continued growth across all products. On the back of our investment in talent, we improved our position in tech, healthcare, consumer and with sponsors. We continue to add talent to the team, which will help us deepen or establish relationships that will bear fruit over the next two- to three years.

    在銀行業,關稅的日益明確和創紀錄的股價增強了執行長的信心。我們利用這一點,將投資銀行費用提高了 17%,所有產品都繼續成長。透過對人才的投資,我們在科技、醫療保健、消費者和贊助商領域的地位得到了提升。我們將繼續為團隊增添人才,這將有助於我們加深或建立在未來兩到三年內取得成果的關係。

  • Wealth had another good quarter with revenue up 8% driven by Citigold and the Private Bank. Our emphasis on growing investment assets resulted in record net new investment assets of $18.6 billion and current investment assets increasing by 14%. We announced a new partnership with BlackRock, where they will manage $80 billion of our clients' assets, fully aligning to an open architecture strategy.

    財富管理業務又迎來了一個好的季度,在花旗黃金和私人銀行的推動下,營收成長了 8%。我們注重增加投資資產,導致淨新增投資資產達到創紀錄的 186 億美元,目前投資資產增加了 14%。我們宣布與貝萊德建立新的合作關係,他們將管理我們客戶 800 億美元的資產,完全符合開放式架構策略。

  • USPB had record quarterly revenue of $5.3 billion, reaching 12 straight quarters of positive operating leverage and delivered an RoTCE of over 14%. We drove momentum in branded cards with the well-received launch of our Citi Strata Elite card. And this quarter, we will introduce the new mid-tier product to round out the Citi AAdvantage portfolio. It will elevate the travel experience for American Airlines customers and create access to premium benefits.

    USPB 的季度營收達到創紀錄的 53 億美元,連續 12 個季度實現正營業槓桿,RoTCE 超過 14%。我們推出的花旗 Strata Elite 卡廣受好評,推動了品牌卡的發展。本季度,我們將推出新的中階產品,以完善花旗 AAdvantage 產品組合。它將提升美國航空乘客的旅行體驗並為他們提供優質福利。

  • In the Retail Bank, we continue to innovate, including by the launch of instant payments through FedNow and enabling digital issuance for Citibank debit cards. And the Retail Bank continues to strengthen as a pipeline to our wealth business with $4 billion in deposits transferred in the quarter.

    在零售銀行業務方面,我們不斷創新,包括透過 FedNow 推出即時支付服務以及實現花旗銀行借記卡的數位發行。零售銀行作為我們財富業務的管道繼續加強,本季轉移了 40 億美元的存款。

  • Wealth is capitalizing on those transfers, and we continue to see improved investment penetration and significantly higher investment related revenue from those customers. We returned over $6 billion in capital to our common shareholders during the third quarter. The $5 billion in share repurchases was $1 billion more than we guided, and this reflects our commitment to returning capital.

    財富正在利用這些轉移,我們繼續看到這些客戶的投資滲透率不斷提高,投資相關收入也顯著增加。我們在第三季向普通股股東返還了超過 60 億美元的資本。50 億美元的股票回購比我們預期的多出 10 億美元,反映了我們對資本回報的承諾。

  • Yet to date, we have repurchased $8.75 billion of shares as part of our $20 billion repurchase plan. We ended the quarter at a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 13.2%, over a 100 bps above our regulatory requirement at quarter end.

    到目前為止,作為 200 億美元回購計畫的一部分,我們已經回購了 87.5 億美元的股票。本季末,我們的普通股一級資本比率為 13.2%,比季末的監理要求高出 100 個基點。

  • The agreement with Fernando Chico Pardo to purchase a 25% equity stake is a very significant step towards the divesture of Banamex and progresses the overall timeline to deconsolidation and beyond. We are confident that this path is in the best interests of our stakeholders in terms of certainty and value, and we could not be more pleased to have Fernando with his proven track record for investors as our partner.

    與 Fernando Chico Pardo 達成的購買 25% 股權的協議是朝著剝離 Banamex 邁出的重要一步,並推進了拆分及後續業務的整體進度。我們相信,從確定性和價值角度來看,這條道路符合我們利益相關者的最佳利益,我們非常高興能有費爾南多作為我們的合作夥伴,他為投資者提供了良好的業績記錄。

  • As we simplify, we continue to invest in technology to catalyze our transformation and become a more agile and modern bank. We have been relentless in our execution, and it is creating results. Over two-thirds of our transformation programs are at or close to our target state, and we're making very good progress in the remaining areas. I'm particularly pleased with the improvement in our controls this year through standardizing, automating, and digitizing them.

    在簡化流程的同時,我們繼續投資技術,以促進我們的轉型,成為一家更靈活、更現代化的銀行。我們一直堅持不懈地執行,並且正在取得成果。超過三分之二的轉型專案已經達到或接近我們的目標狀態,其餘領域也取得了非常好的進展。我對今年透過標準化、自動化和數位化來改善我們的控制感到特別高興。

  • We continue to lead in digital payments innovation, enabling payments, clearing and settlement capabilities to operate on an always-on basis across multiple borders and currencies. As networks evolve towards an always-on future, we are taking the next step by integrating Citi Token Services with our 24/7 clearing platform. Now this integration will allow Citi clients to seamlessly send funds to third-party banks real time within our US dollar clearing network, and that's delivering true interoperability across more than 250 institutions.

    我們持續引領數位支付創新,使支付、清算和結算能力能夠跨越多個邊界和貨幣持續運作。隨著網路向永遠在線的未來發展,我們將採取下一步措施,將花旗代幣服務與我們的全天候清算平台結合。現在,這項整合將允許花旗客戶在我們的美元清算網路內無縫地即時向第三方銀行匯款,從而實現 250 多家機構之間的真正互通性。

  • We are committed to embedding AI into how we work. Nearly 180,000 colleagues in 83 countries now have access to our proprietary AI tools and have used them almost 7 million times this year. These tools save hours each day by automating routine work, analyzing data, and creating materials in minutes instead of hours. Our Services and USPB teams are using AI to resolve client increase faster. In Wealth, advisors are gaining real-time insights that help them deliver more personalized advice. And AI-driven automated code reviews have exceeded 1 million so far this year and are dramatically improving our developers' productivity.

    我們致力於將人工智慧融入我們的工作方式。目前,83 個國家的近 18 萬名同事可以使用我們的專有 AI 工具,今年已使用近 700 萬次。這些工具透過自動化日常工作、分析數據並在幾分鐘(而不是幾小時)內創建材料,每天可以節省數小時。我們的服務和 USPB 團隊正在使用 AI 來更快地解決客戶增加的問題。在財富方面,顧問正在獲得即時洞察,幫助他們提供更個人化的建議。今年到目前為止,人工智慧驅動的自動程式碼審查已經超過 100 萬次,大大提高了開發人員的工作效率。

  • This innovation alone saves considerable time and creates around 100,000 hours of weekly capacity as a very meaningful productivity uplift. In September, we launched a pilot of Agentic AI for 5,000 colleagues. It allows complex, multi-step tasks to be completed with a single prompt, and the early results are very promising. And we'll expand access to this in the months ahead.

    僅此一項創新就節省了大量時間,並創造了每週約 100,000 小時的產能,從而極大地提高了生產力。9 月,我們為 5,000 名同事啟動了 Agentic AI 試點計畫。它允許透過單一提示完成複雜的多步驟任務,並且早期結果非常有希望。我們將在未來幾個月內擴大對此的存取權限。

  • Finally, we have launched a firmwide effort to systematically embed AI in our processes end-to-end to drive further efficiencies, reduce risk, and improve client experience.

    最後,我們啟動了全公司範圍的努力,將人工智慧系統地嵌入我們的端到端流程中,以進一步提高效率、降低風險並改善客戶體驗。

  • Taking a step back, the macro environment reflects a global economy that's proved more resilient than many anticipated. The US continues to be a pace-setter, driven by consistent consumer spending, as well as tech investments in AI and data centers. That said, there are pockets of valuation floppiness in the market, so I hope discipline remains.

    回顧一下,宏觀環境反映出全球經濟比許多人預期的更有彈性。在持續的消費者支出以及對人工智慧和資料中心的技術投資的推動下,美國繼續成為領跑者。話雖如此,市場上仍存在一些估值疲軟的情況,所以我希望紀律能繼續保持下去。

  • But overall, while growth is cooling somewhat and we're keeping an eye on the labor market, America's economic engine is indeed still coming. In Asia, China's domestic spending has slowed. However, the investments they are making in technology are staggering and the world should take notice.

    但總體而言,儘管經濟成長有所降溫,我們也在關注勞動市場,但美國的經濟引擎確實仍在發揮作用。在亞洲,中國的國內支出已經放緩。然而,他們在技術方面的投資是驚人的,世界應該關注。

  • India's fundamentals of the young tech savvy labor force and robust domestic consumption continue to drive high growth there. But in Europe, structural challenges still need to be dealt with for the continent to escape this low growth cycle. One certainty through all of this is our commitment and ability to serve our clients with excellence, no matter what challenge they face.

    印度擁有精通科技的年輕勞動力和強勁的國內消費等基本面,並持續推動其經濟快速成長。但在歐洲,仍需應對結構性挑戰,才能擺脫低成長週期。有一點是肯定的,那就是無論客戶面臨什麼挑戰,我們都致力於並有能力為客戶提供卓越的服務。

  • As you can see, the steady and disciplined execution of our strategy is delivering better business performance quarter-after-quarter and improving our returns. The cumulative effect of what we have done over the past years, our transformation, our refreshed strategy, our simplification have put Citi in a materially different place in terms of our ability to compete.

    如您所見,我們穩步、嚴格地執行策略,每個季度都帶來更好的業務業績,並提高我們的回報。我們過去幾年所做努力的累積效應,包括我們的轉型、我們更新的策略、我們的簡化,已經使花旗在競爭能力方面處於一個實質性的不同的位置。

  • We know success isn't linear. But I am so proud of the progress our people have made and how things are coming together. We intend to end the year with momentum into 2026 as we close in on our medium-term return target.

    我們知道成功並不是直線性的。但我對我們的人民所取得的進步以及一切進展感到非常自豪。隨著我們接近中期回報目標,我們計劃在今年年底前保持強勁勢頭,邁向 2026 年。

  • In terms of what will come next, we very much look forward to sharing that with you at our next Investor Day, which will be on May 7 of next year. There is still so much upside left for us to capture, and we look forward to laying out how we are going to do it.

    至於接下來會發生什麼,我們非常期待在明年 5 月 7 日舉行的下一屆投資者日上與您分享。我們還有巨大的上升空間可以把握,我們期待著制定如何實現這一目標的計畫。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Mark, and then we'll be happy to take your questions.

    說完這些,我將把時間交給馬克,然後我們很樂意回答您的問題。

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Jane, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to start with the firmwide financial results focusing on year-over-year comparisons unless I indicate otherwise and then review the performance of our businesses in greater detail.

    謝謝,簡,大家早安。我將從全公司的財務表現開始,並專注於同比比較,除非我另有說明,然後更詳細地審查我們業務的表現。

  • On slide 6, we show financial results for the full firm. This quarter, we reported net income of $3.8 billion, EPS of $1.86, and an RoTCE of 8% on $22.1 billion of revenues, generating positive operating leverage for the firm and each of our five businesses. On an adjusted basis, excluding the impact of a notable item consisting of the goodwill impairment that Jane mentioned earlier, we reported net income of $4.5 billion, EPS of $2.24, and an RoTCE of 9.7%.

    在第 6 張投影片上,我們展示了整個公司的財務表現。本季度,我們報告的淨收入為 38 億美元,每股收益為 1.86 美元,在 221 億美元的營收中,RoTCE 為 8%,為公司和我們的五項業務各自產生了積極的經營槓桿。經調整後,不包括 Jane 先前提到的商譽減損此顯著項目的影響,我們報告的淨收入為 45 億美元,每股收益為 2.24 美元,總經常成本為 9.7%。

  • Total revenues were up 9% driven by growth in each of our businesses and legacy franchises, partially offset by a decline in Corporate/Other. Net interest income excluding markets, which you can see on the bottom left side of the slide, was up 6%, driven by USPB, Services, Wealth, Legacy Franchises, and Banking, partially offset by a decline in Corporate/Other.

    總收入成長了 9%,這得益於我們各項業務和傳統特許經營權的成長,但被企業/其他業務的下滑部分抵消。您可以在幻燈片左下方看到,不包括市場的淨利息收入增長了 6%,這主要得益於 USPB、服務、財富、傳統特許經營和銀行業務的增長,但企業/其他業務的下降部分抵消了這一增長。

  • Non-interest revenues excluding markets were up 12% as better results in Banking, Wealth, and Legacy Franchises were partially offset by declines in Corporate/Other services and USPB, and total markets revenues were up 15%. Expenses of $14.3 billion were up 9%, largely driven by the goodwill impairment I just mentioned.

    不包括市場的非利息收入增長了 12%,因為銀行、財富和傳統特許經營業務的業績較好,但被企業/其他服務和 USPB 的下滑部分抵消,而總市場收入增長了 15%。143 億美元的支出成長了 9%,這主要是由於我剛才提到的商譽減損。

  • On an adjusted basis, expenses of $13.6 billion were up 3%. Costs of credit was $2.5 billion primarily consisting of net credit losses and US cards, as well as a firm wide net ACL build. Looking at the firm on a year-to-date basis, total revenues were up 7%, driven by growth in each of our five businesses, along with the benefit of foreign exchange translation, partially offset by a decline in all other.

    經調整後,支出為 136 億美元,成長 3%。信貸成本為 25 億美元,主要包括淨信貸損失和美國信用卡,以及全公司淨 ACL 建置。從年初至今的情況來看,公司總收入成長了 7%,這得益於我們五項業務的成長以及外匯折算帶來的好處,但其他所有業務的下降部分抵消了這一增長。

  • Expenses, which have also been impacted by foreign exchange translation, were up 2% and flat on an adjusted basis. We've generated positive operating leverage for the full firm and each of our five businesses and reported an RoTCE of 8.6% and 9.2% on an adjusted basis.

    支出也受到外匯折算的影響,上漲了 2%,調整後持平。我們為整個公司和我們的五個業務部門分別創造了正的經營槓桿,並報告了調整後的 RoTCE 分別為 8.6% 和 9.2%。

  • On slide 7, we showed the expense and efficiency trend over the past five quarters. On an adjusted basis, this quarter, we improved our efficiency ratio by approximately 360 basis points. The increase in adjusted expenses was driven by higher compensation and benefits along with the impact of foreign exchange translation.

    在第 7 張投影片上,我們展示了過去五個季度的費用和效率趨勢。經過調整後,本季我們的效率比率提高了約 360 個基點。調整後費用的增加是由於薪資和福利增加以及外匯折算的影響。

  • As you can see on the bottom right side of the slide, the increase in compensation and benefits was driven by performance-related compensation, higher severance, and investment in transformation and technology, and productivity and stranded cost reduction partially offsetting continued growth in the businesses. Year-to-date, we have incurred approximately $650 million of severance, slightly above our original expectation for the full year.

    正如您在幻燈片右下角看到的,薪酬和福利的增長是由績效薪酬、更高的遣散費、轉型和技術投資以及生產力和擱淺成本的降低部分抵消了業務的持續增長所推動的。今年迄今為止,我們已產生約 6.5 億美元的遣散費,略高於我們最初對全年的預期。

  • As we've said in the past, we are very focused on managing our expense space in a disciplined manner, reducing stranded costs and generating productivity savings to largely self-fund investments in transformation, technology, and the businesses. This discipline combined with top-line revenue momentum will continue to drive improvement in our operating efficiency.

    正如我們過去所說的那樣,我們非常注重以規範的方式管理我們的費用空間,減少擱淺成本並產生生產力節約,以主要自籌資金用於轉型、技術和業務方面的投資。這項紀律與營收成長動能結合,將持續推動我們營運效率的提升。

  • On slide 8, we show consumer and corporate credit metrics. As I mentioned, the firm's cost of credit was $2.5 billion primarily consisting of net credit losses in US cards, as well as a firm-wide net ACL build. Our reserves continue to incorporate an eight-quarter weighted average unemployment rate of 5.2%, which includes a downside scenario average unemployment rate of nearly 7%.

    在第 8 張投影片上,我們展示了消費者和企業信用指標。正如我所提到的,該公司的信貸成本為 25 億美元,主要包括美國信用卡的淨信貸損失以及全公司的淨 ACL 構建。我們的儲備持續反映八個季度加權平均失業率為 5.2%,其中包括下行情境下接近 7% 的平均失業率。

  • At the end of the quarter, we had nearly $24 billion in total reserves with a reserve-to-funded-loan ratio of 2.7%. We continue to maintain a high credit quality card portfolio with approximately 85% to consumers with FICO scores of 660 or higher and a reserved-to-funded-loan ratio in our card portfolio of 8%. And it's worth noting that across our US cards portfolios, delinquency and NCL rates continue to perform in line with our expectations.

    截至本季末,我們的總儲備金接近 240 億美元,儲備金與貸款比率為 2.7%。我們繼續保持高信用品質的信用卡組合,其中約 85% 的信用卡組合面向 FICO 評分為 660 或更高的消費者,並且我們的信用卡組合中的預留貸款與已發放貸款之比為 8%。值得注意的是,在我們的美國信用卡組合中,拖欠率和不良貸款率繼續符合我們的預期。

  • Looking at the right-hand side of the slide, you can see that our corporate exposure is primarily investment grade, and while corporate non-accrual loans increased in the quarter, resulting from idiosyncratic downgrade, they remain low, as do corporate net credit losses. We feel good about the high-quality nature of our portfolios which reflect our risk appetite framework and our focus on using the balance sheet in the context of the overall client relationship.

    從投影片的右側可以看出,我們的企業風險敞口主要是投資等級,儘管由於特殊降級導致本季度企業非應計貸款有所增加,但仍處於較低水平,企業淨信貸損失也同樣如此。我們對我們的投資組合的高品質性質感到滿意,這反映了我們的風險偏好框架以及我們在整體客戶關係背景下使用資產負債表的重點。

  • Turning to capital and the balance sheet on slide 9, where I will speak to sequential variant. Our $2.6 trillion balance sheet increased 1% driven by growth in cash and loans. End-of-period loans increased 1% driven by markets and services. Our $1.4 trillion deposit base remains well diversified and increased 2%, driven by Services and Wealth.

    轉向投影片 9 上的資本和資產負債表,我將在其中討論連續變數。我們的 2.6 兆美元資產負債表在現金和貸款成長的推動下成長了 1%。在市場和服務的推動下,期末貸款增加了 1%。我們的 1.4 兆美元存款基礎保持良好多元化,在服務和財富的推動下成長了 2%。

  • We reported an 115% average LCR and maintained over $1 trillion of available liquidity resources. We ended the quarter with a preliminary 13.2% CET1 capital ratio, which is 110 basis points above our 12.1% regulatory capital requirement during the third quarter.

    我們報告的平均流動性覆蓋率為 115%,並維持了超過 1 兆美元的可用流動性資源。本季末,我們的 CET1 資本充足率初步為 13.2%,比第三季的 12.1% 監理資本要求高出 110 個基點。

  • Effective October 1, our new standardized CET1 capital ratio requirement is 11.6%, which incorporates the reduction in our SCB from 4.1% to 3.6%. That said, we're still waiting for clarity from the Federal Reserve on whether the averaging of SCB results from the previous two consecutive years will become effective in the next few months.

    自 10 月 1 日起,我們新的標準化 CET1 資本充足率要求為 11.6%,其中包括將 SCB 從 4.1% 降至 3.6%。話雖如此,我們仍在等待聯準會明確說明,未來幾個月內是否會對前兩年連續的渣打銀行業績進行平均。

  • Given this uncertainty, we will be targeting a standardized CET1 ratio closer to 12.8%, which incorporates a two-year average SCB of 3.8% as well as a 100-basis point management buffer. As we've said in the past, we remain very focused on efficient utilization of both standardized and advanced RWA while providing the businesses with the capital needed to pursue accretive growth opportunities. And we will continue to prioritize returning capital to shareholders through buybacks as evidenced by the $5 billion of buybacks in the third quarter and nearly $9 billion year-to-date.

    鑑於這種不確定性,我們將把標準化的 CET1 比率定為接近 12.8%,其中包括兩年平均 3.8% 的 SCB 以及 100 個基點的管理緩衝。正如我們過去所說的那樣,我們仍然非常注重標準化和高級 RWA 的有效利用,同時為企業提供追求增值成長機會所需的資本。我們將繼續優先透過回購向股東返還資本,第三季的回購金額為 50 億美元,今年迄今的回購金額已接近 90 億美元。

  • Turning to the businesses on slide 10, we show the results for Services in the third quarter. Revenues were up 7%, driven by growth across both TTS and Security Services. NII increased 11%, primarily driven by the increase in average deposit balances as well as higher deposit spreads. While NIR was down 3% due to the impact of higher lending revenue share, total fee revenue was up 6%.

    轉到投影片 10 上的業務,我們展示了第三季服務業的表現。受 TTS 和安全服務成長的推動,營收成長了 7%。NII 成長了 11%,主要由於平均存款餘額增加以及存款利差上升。雖然由於貸款收入份額增加的影響,NIR 下降了 3%,但總費用收入卻增加了 6%。

  • We see very strong activity and engagement with corporate clients and momentum across underlying fee drivers with cross-border transactions up 10%, US dollar clearing volume up 5%, and assets under custody and administration up 13% as we continue to roll out our innovative products and services with digital capabilities into new markets.

    隨著我們繼續向新市場推出具有數位化功能的創新產品和服務,我們看到企業客戶的活動和參與度非常強勁,並且各個基礎費用驅動因素的勢頭強勁,跨境交易量增長了 10%,美元清算量增長了 5%,託管和管理的資產增長了 13%。

  • Expenses increased 5%, primarily driven by higher compensation and benefits, including severance as well as higher volume and other revenue-related expenses. Average loans increased 8% driven by continued demand for trade loans as we continue to support clients as they plan for potential shifts in trade corridors. Average deposits also increased 8% with growth across both North America and International, largely driven by an increase in operating deposits.

    支出增加了 5%,主要原因是薪資和福利增加,包括遣散費以及銷售和其他收入相關支出增加。由於我們繼續支持客戶為貿易走廊的潛在轉變做好規劃,貿易貸款的持續需求推動平均貸款增加了 8%。平均存款也增加了 8%,北美和國際均有成長,這主要得益於營運存款的增加。

  • Services generated positive operating leverage for the fifth consecutive quarter and delivered net income of $1.8 billion, with an RoTCE of 28.9% in the quarter and 26.1% year-to-date.

    服務業務連續第五季產生正營業槓桿,實現淨收入 18 億美元,本季 RoTCE 為 28.9%,年初至今為 26.1%。

  • Turning to markets on slide 11. Revenues were up 15%, driven by growth across both fixed income and equity. Fixed income revenues increased 12% with rates and currencies up 15%, largely driven by growth in rates amid policy uncertainty and elevated client activity.

    轉向幻燈片 11 上的市場。受固定收益和股票成長的推動,營收成長了 15%。固定收益收入成長 12%,利率和貨幣上漲 15%,這主要受到政策不確定性和客戶活動增加導致的利率成長的推動。

  • And spread products and other fixed income was up 8%, largely driven by higher mortgage trading, higher financing activity and lower commodities activity. Equities revenues were up 24%, driven by higher client activity in derivatives and increased volumes in cash as well as continued momentum in prime with balances up approximately 44%.

    利差產品和其他固定收益上漲 8%,主要受抵押貸款交易增加、融資活動增加和大宗商品活動減少的推動。股票收入成長 24%,這得益於客戶衍生性商品活動增加、現金交易量增加以及主要業務持續成長動能(餘額成長約 44%)。

  • Expenses increased 5%, primarily driven by higher compensation and benefits along with the impact of FX translation. Transactional and product servicing expenses were down as growth in transaction volumes was more than offset by efficiency actions.

    費用增加了 5%,主要原因是薪資和福利增加以及外匯轉換的影響。由於交易量的成長被效率行動所抵消,交易和產品服務費用下降。

  • Average loans increased 24%, primarily driven by financing activity and spread products. Markets generated positive operating leverage for the sixth consecutive quarter and delivered net income of $1.6 billion with an RoTCE of 12.3% in the quarter and 13.5% year-to-date.

    平均貸款增加了 24%,主要受融資活動和利差產品的推動。市場連續第六個季度產生正的經營槓桿,並實現淨收入 16 億美元,本季 RoTCE 為 12.3%,年初至今為 13.5%。

  • Turning to banking on slide 12, revenues were up 34%, driven by growth in corporate lending and investment banking. Investment banking fees increased 17% with growth across all products. M&A was up 8% with momentum across several sectors and with continued share gains with financial sponsors and more sell-side activity. ECM was up 35%, with growth across all products, notably in convertibles given the favorable environment. And DCM was up 19%, driven by leverage finance.

    轉向幻燈片 12 上的銀行業務,受企業貸款和投資銀行業務成長的推動,收入成長了 34%。投資銀行費用上漲了 17%,所有產品均成長。併購交易成長了 8%,多個行業都呈現成長勢頭,金融贊助商的份額持續增加,賣方活動增加。ECM 上漲了 35%,所有產品均實現成長,尤其是在有利的環境下,可轉換債券也實現了成長。在槓桿融資的推動下,DCM 上漲了 19%。

  • Corporate lending revenues, excluding mark-to-market on loan hedges, increased 39%, driven by an increase in lending revenue share. Expenses increased 2%, driven by higher volume-related transactional and product servicing expenses as well as compensation and benefit, which includes recent investments we've made in the business.

    受貸款收入份額增加的推動,企業貸款收入(不包括以市價計價的貸款對沖)增加了 39%。費用增加了 2%,原因是與交易量相關的交易和產品服務費用以及薪酬和福利增加,其中包括我們最近對該業務進行的投資。

  • Cost of credit was $157 million, which included a net ACL build of $148 million driven by changes in portfolio composition, including exposure growth. Banking generated positive operating leverage for the seventh consecutive quarter and delivered net income of $638 million with an RoTCE of 12.3% in the quarter and 10.7% year-to-date.

    信貸成本為 1.57 億美元,其中包括因投資組合組成變化(包括風險敞口增長)而產生的 1.48 億美元淨 ACL 增量。銀行業務連續第七個季度實現正向經營槓桿,實現淨收入 6.38 億美元,本季經營槓桿率為 12.3%,年初至今為 10.7%。

  • Turning to Wealth on slide 13. Revenues were up 8%, driven by growth in Citigold and the Private Bank partially offset by a decline in wealth at work. NII, which you can see on the bottom left side of the slide, increased 8%, driven by higher deposit spreads, partially offset by lower mortgage spreads. NIR increased 9%, driven by higher investment fee revenues as we grew client investment assets by 14% despite a reduction of approximately $33 billion related to the sale of our trust business.

    轉到第 13 張投影片上的財富。收入成長了 8%,這得益於花旗黃金和私人銀行業務的成長,但被工作財富的下降部分抵消。您可以在幻燈片左下方看到 NII 增加了 8%,這得益於存款利差的提高,但被抵押貸款利差的降低部分抵消。儘管因出售信託業務而減少了約 330 億美元,但客戶投資資產仍增長了 14%,這得益於投資費用收入的增加,從而推動了 NIR 增長了 9%。

  • We had record net new investment assets of $18.6 billion in the quarter and over $52 billion in the last 12 months, representing approximately 9% organic growth. Expenses increased 4%, driven by investments in technology and volume-related transactional and product servicing expenses, partially offset by continued productivity savings.

    本季我們的淨新增投資資產達到創紀錄的 186 億美元,過去 12 個月的淨新增投資資產超過 520 億美元,有機成長約為 9%。支出增加了 4%,主要是由於技術投資以及與數量相關的交易和產品服務費用,但被持續的生產力節約部分抵消。

  • End-of-period client balances continued to grow, up 8%. Average loans were up 1% as we continue to be strategic in deploying the balance sheet to support growth in client investment assets. Average deposits were flat as operating outflows and a shift from deposits to higher-yielding investments on Citi's platform were offset by net new deposits as well as client transfers from USPB.

    期末客戶餘額持續成長,成長了 8%。由於我們繼續策略性地部署資產負債表以支持客戶投資資產的成長,平均貸款成長了 1%。平均存款持平,因為花旗平台上的營運流出和從存款到高收益投資的轉變被淨新存款以及來自 USPB 的客戶轉帳所抵消。

  • Wealth had a pretax margin of 22%, generated positive operating leverage for the sixth consecutive quarter, and delivered net income of $374 million, with an RoTCE of 12.1% in the quarter and 12.5% year-to-date.

    Wealth 的稅前利潤率為 22%,連續六個季度產生正的經營槓桿,並實現淨收入 3.74 億美元,本季 RoTCE 為 12.1%,年初至今為 12.5%。

  • Turning to US Personal Banking on slide 14. Revenues were up 7%, driven by growth in branded cards and retail banking, partially offset by a slight decline in retail service. Branded cards revenues increased 8%, driven by higher loan spreads, higher interest-earning balances, which were up 5%, and higher gross interchange partially offset by higher rewards costs. We continue to see strong customer engagement with spend volume also up 5%.

    前往投影片 14 上的美國個人銀行業務。營收成長 7%,主要得益於品牌卡和零售銀行業務的成長,但零售服務業務的輕微下滑部分抵銷了這一成長。品牌卡收入增加了 8%,這得益於貸款利差增加、利息收入餘額增加(增加了 5%)以及總交換費增加(但被獎勵成本增加部分抵銷)。我們持續看到強勁的客戶參與度,消費額也成長了 5%。

  • Retail banking revenues increased 30%, largely driven by the impact of higher deposit spreads and balances and retail services revenues were down 1%, largely driven by higher partner payment accruals.

    零售銀行收入成長 30%,主要受存款利差和餘額增加的影響,而零售服務收入下降 1%,主要受合作夥伴支付應計費用增加的影響。

  • Expenses were flat as lower advertising and marketing expenses as well as compensation and benefits, were offset by higher volume-related transactional and product servicing expenses. Cost of credit was $1.8 billion, driven by net credit losses in card.

    由於廣告和行銷費用以及薪資和福利的減少被與銷售相關的交易和產品服務費用的增加所抵消,因此費用持平。信貸成本為 18 億美元,主要由信用卡淨信用損失造成。

  • Average deposits increased 6% as net new deposits were partially offset by the client transfers to wealth that I mentioned earlier. USPB generated positive operating leverage for the 12th consecutive quarter and delivered net income of $858 million with an RoTCE of 14.5% in the quarter and 12.9% year-to-date.

    平均存款增加了 6%,因為淨新存款被我之前提到的客戶財富轉移部分抵消。USPB 連續第 12 季實現正營業槓桿,實現淨收入 8.58 億美元,本季 RoTCE 為 14.5%,年初至今為 12.9%。

  • Turning to slide 15, we show results for all other on a managed basis, which includes Corporate/Other and legacy franchises and excludes divestiture-related items. Revenues were down 16% with a decline in Corporate/Other, partially offset by an increase in legacy franchise. The decline in Corporate/Other was driven by lower NII resulting from actions that we've taken over the past few quarters to reduce the asset sensitivity of the firm in a declining rate environment as well as lower NIR.

    翻到第 15 張投影片,我們展示了所有其他以管理方式計算的結果,其中包括公司/其他和傳統特許經營權,但不包括與剝離相關的項目。由於企業/其他業務的下降,收入下降了 16%,但傳統特許經營權的成長部分抵消了這一影響。企業/其他業務的下降是由於 NII 下降所致,而 NII 的下降是由於我們在過去幾個季度採取的措施,以降低公司在利率下降環境下的資產敏感性以及 NIR 降低所致。

  • Growth in legacy franchises was driven by Mexico, which included the impact of Mexican peso appreciation partially offset by the impact of continued reduction from our exit and wind down market. Expenses increased 4% with growth in Corporate/Other, which included higher severance, largely offset by a decline in legacy franchise. And cost of credit was $331 million, primarily consisting of net credit losses of $297 million, driven by consumer loans in Mexico.

    傳統特許經營權的成長受到墨西哥的推動,其中包括墨西哥比索升值的影響,但部分被我們退出和逐步減少的市場持續減少的影響所抵消。由於企業/其他業務的成長(包括遣散費增加),費用增加了 4%,但這很大程度上被傳統特許經營權的下降所抵消。信貸成本為 3.31 億美元,主要包括 2.97 億美元的淨信貸損失,這主要是由於墨西哥的消費貸款造成的。

  • As you can see on the bottom right side of the slide, divestiture-related expense items in the quarter included the $726 million goodwill impairment, which is capital neutral, and based on the fair value of 100% of the entity.

    正如您在投影片右下角看到的,本季與資產剝離相關的費用項目包括 7.26 億美元的商譽減值,這是資本中立的,並且基於該實體 100% 的公允價值。

  • On slide 16, we provide an overview of the agreement with Fernando Chico Pardo, to purchase a 25% equity stake in Banamex. This transaction progresses the overall time line to exit Banamex, but is subject to certain closing conditions and local regulatory approvals.

    在第 16 張幻燈片中,我們概述了與 Fernando Chico Pardo 達成的協議,以購買 Banamex 25% 的股權。此交易推進了退出 Banamex 的整體時間表,但需滿足某些成交條件和當地監管機構的批准。

  • Before I walk through the financial impacts related to this stake at closing, I'd like to ensure you understand the net capital impact at a full exit. The cumulative capital benefit to Citi upon full exit will be driven by two things: one, the capital release associated with the RWA reduction; and two, the cumulative impact of any potential gains and losses on sales.

    在我介紹與該股權交易相關的財務影響之前,我想確保您了解完全退出時的淨資本影響。花旗在完全退出後獲得的累積資本利得將由兩件事驅動:第一,與風險加權資產減少相關的資本釋放;第二,任何潛在收益和損失對銷售的累積影響。

  • However, between now and then, there will be a few steps to get there. And it starts with this transaction. So looking at the right-hand side of the page, at the time of close and subject to the book value of Banamex at closing, we expect assets to increase by approximately $2.3 billion for the total consideration paid for the 25% stake, which reflects the fixed price-to-book value multiple of 0.8.

    然而,從現在到那時,還需要採取一些措施才能實現這一目標。一切都從這筆交易開始。因此,請看頁面右側,在交易結束時,根據 Banamex 交易結束時的帳面價值,我們預計資產將增加約 23 億美元,以支付 25% 股份的總對價,這反映了 0.8 的固定市淨率。

  • And total equity will also increase by a net $2.3 billion, but it will be driven by a few factors. First, there will be a temporary benefit to stockholders' equity due to the reclassification of the negative cumulative translation adjustment from stockholders' equity to non-controlling interest, which will be slightly offset by the loss on sale.

    總股本也將淨增加 23 億美元,但這將受到一些因素的推動。首先,由於將負累計折算調整從股東權益重新分類為非控制權益,股東權益將獲得暫時的收益,但此收益將被出售損失略微抵銷。

  • Second, the non-controlling interest will increase by the 25% of the Banamex book value sold, but this will be largely offset by the CTA that was reclassified as part of this transaction. So net-net, a $2.3 billion increase in assets, and on the equity side, a $1.8 billion increase in stockholders' equity, and a $500 million increase in non-controlling interest.

    其次,非控制權益將增加所出售的 Banamex 帳面價值的 25%,但這將在很大程度上被作為本次交易一部分重新分類的 CTA 所抵消。因此,淨資產增加了 23 億美元,在股權方面,股東權益增加了 18 億美元,非控制權益增加了 5 億美元。

  • At deconsolidation, there will be balance sheet impacts and P&L impact. As it relates to the balance sheet, all of Banamex assets and liabilities will be removed from our balance sheet and be partially offset by any remaining equity stake. In terms of the P&L, the entire amount of the cumulative translation adjustment related to Banamex, which is approximately $9 billion will flow through the P&L as a loss and will reverse the temporary capital benefit from prior sales. Therefore, at deconsolidation, the cumulative impact of CTA is capital neutral.

    在拆分時,會對資產負債表和損益表產生影響。就資產負債表而言,所有 Banamex 資產和負債都將從我們的資產負債表中刪除,並由任何剩餘的股權部分抵銷。就損益表而言,與 Banamex 相關的累積翻譯調整總額(約 90 億美元)將作為損失計入損益表,並將沖銷先前銷售產生的臨時資本收益。因此,在拆分時,CTA 的累積影響是資本中立的。

  • So to wrap it up, while there are a number of accounting nuances between now and full exit, the cumulative capital impact to Citi will be the full release of RWA associated with Banamex and the cumulative impact of any potential gains and losses on sales.

    總而言之,雖然從現在到完全退出之間存在許多會計細微差別,但對花旗的累積資本影響將是與 Banamex 相關的 RWA 的完全釋放以及任何潛在收益和損失對銷售的累積影響。

  • Turning to the full year 2025 outlook on slide 17. Before I get into the outlook, I want to say how proud I am of the company as we execute against our strategy and drive top line revenue growth, which continues to be fueled by our investments across the businesses and in key areas such as technology and data. We've made significant progress in terms of improving return with an adjusted year-to-date RoTCE of 9.2%.

    轉向第 17 張幻燈片上的 2025 年全年展望。在介紹前景之前,我想說一下我對公司感到非常自豪,因為我們執行我們的策略並推動營收成長,這繼續得益於我們在各個業務以及技術和數據等關鍵領域的投資。我們在提高回報率方面取得了重大進展,年初至今調整後的 RoTCE 為 9.2%。

  • So now with regard to the outlook. Given the very strong year-to-date top line revenue growth of 7%, we remain confident in our ability to exceed $84 billion in revenues for the year. We now expect NII ex-markets to be up around 5.5% for the full year, incorporating stronger performance as well as the impact of FX relative to our previous expectations.

    現在談談前景。鑑於今年迄今的營業收入成長非常強勁,達到 7%,我們仍然有信心今年的收入能夠超過 840 億美元。我們現在預計,全年非市場NII將上漲約5.5%,考慮到更強勁的表現以及外匯對我們先前預期的影響。

  • For NIR ex-markets, we expect continued momentum in underlying fee drivers. And in markets, historically, we've seen revenues decline 15% to 20% from the third- to fourth quarter. However, given the strong performance in the third quarter, the sequential decline could exceed that range this year.

    對於 NIR 以外的市場,我們預計底層費用驅動因素將繼續保持成長動能。從歷史上看,市場收入從第三季到第四季下降了 15% 到 20%。然而,鑑於第三季的強勁表現,今年的環比降幅可能會超過這一幅度。

  • Now turning to expenses. Our year-to-date expense base incorporates both the level and mix of revenue we've seen as well as the impact of FX. And given what I just mentioned about revenues, full year expenses will come in higher than we previously guided. However, you should expect the efficiency ratio for the full year to be consistent with the revenue and expense guidance that we provided during the course of the year, which is slightly below 64% excluding the impact of the goodwill impairment this quarter.

    現在談談費用。我們年初至今的支出基礎既包含了我們所看到的收入水準和組合,也包含了外匯的影響。考慮到我剛才提到的收入,全年支出將高於我們先前的預期。不過,您應該預期全年的效率比率將與我們在年內提供的收入和支出指引保持一致,如果排除本季商譽減損的影響,該比率略低於 64%。

  • In terms of credit, our expectations for the year remain unchanged, and we will continue to repurchase shares in the fourth quarter under our $20 billion program.

    在信貸方面,我們對今年的預期保持不變,我們將在第四季繼續按照200億美元的計畫回購股票。

  • As we take a step back, the performance in the quarter and so far this year represents significant progress towards our goal of improved firm-wide and business performance. We remain steadfast and focused on executing our transformation, achieving our RoTCE target of 10% to 11% next year and further improving returns over time.

    回顧過去,本季以及今年迄今的業績表明,我們朝著提高全公司和業務業績的目標邁出了重大一步。我們堅定不移地專注於實施轉型,實現明年 10% 至 11% 的 RoTCE 目標,並隨著時間的推移進一步提高回報。

  • And with that, Jane and I would be happy to take your questions.

    因此,簡和我很樂意回答你們的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的麥克·梅奧。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • So I think you said you're at least two-thirds done with a lot of the transformation, and I assume that relates to the consent order. So can you just give us an update on your actions with the consent order as it relates to risk, compliance, controls and reg data?

    所以我認為您說您已經完成了至少三分之二的轉型工作,我認為這與同意令有關。那麼,您能否向我們介紹一下您在同意令方面與風險、合規、控制和註冊資料相關的行動的最新情況?

  • And if you can elaborate on the reg data part because in this current regulatory environment, I don't know why so much effort needs to go to something that's more process-oriented, which they're trying to get away from as opposed to just financial strength.

    如果您可以詳細說明監管資料部分,因為在當前的監管環境下,我不知道為什麼需要花費如此多的精力去關註一些更注重流程的事情,而他們試圖擺脫流程,而不僅僅是財務實力。

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So yes, I do feel good about the progress we've made. And as you refer, over two-thirds of our programs are at or mostly at Citi's target state. And some of the biggest bodies of work are now embedded just into how we run the bank and operate it on a BAU basis. So you've heard me talk about risk and the progress we've made in compliance. And those are two areas where we are largely at the target state and are running through sustainability.

    是的,我對我們所取得的進展感到滿意。正如您所說,我們超過三分之二的專案已經達到或大部分達到了花旗的目標狀態。現在,一些最大的工作已經融入我們如何在 BAU 基礎上經營銀行。所以你們已經聽我談論了風險以及我們在合規方面取得的進展。這兩個領域我們基本上已經達到目標狀態,並且正在實現永續發展。

  • But we're also now at the back-end of the working controls. And this is a big body of work this year to drive automation to implement more preventative controls. So we now have preventive controls for any large and anomalous payments in 85 countries. That covers about $1.3 trillion in payments daily, covers 55 payment apps. We also have preventive controls covering over 99% of manual payment flows in our institutional businesses.

    但我們現在也處於工作控制的後端。這是今年的一項重要工作,旨在推動自動化,實施更多的預防性控制。因此,我們現在對 85 個國家的任何大額和異常支付都採取了預防性控制措施。這涵蓋了每天約 1.3 兆美元的支付,涵蓋 55 個支付應用程式。我們也擁有預防性控制措施,涵蓋機構業務中 99% 以上的手動支付流程。

  • We've standardized controls to common processes across the firm. That was very much enabled by the org simplification that we did. And we're now in line with peers in terms of level of automation and preventative controls. And all of this work is going to help us implement AI across our processes, as I referred to in the earlier remarks.

    我們已經對整個公司的常見流程進行了標準化控制。這很大程度上得益於我們所做的組織簡化。現在,我們在自動化和預防控制水平方面已經與同行保持一致。正如我在先前的評論中提到的,所有這些工作都將幫助我們在整個流程中實施人工智慧。

  • Now data for reg reporting is going to take more time, but we have made significant progress in the last 12 months. Through our own testing, we're seeing really improved -- dramatically improved accuracy for our most critical regulatory reports. We are also putting in tech and AI enabled capabilities to ensure we sustain these improvements on a BAU process and basis.

    現在,註冊報告的數據需要更多時間,但我們在過去 12 個月中取得了重大進展。透過我們自己的測試,我們發現最重要的監管報告的準確性確實得到了顯著提高。我們也投入了技術和人工智慧功能,以確保我們在 BAU 流程和基礎上維持這些改進。

  • In terms of regulatory environment, we are clearly seeing changes in the reg environment coming from D.C. And I think, like everyone, we welcome the proposed changes, including recalibration to center on safety and soundness. But for us, we're on track with what we're doing across all the programs, including data.

    在監管環境方面,我們清楚地看到來自華盛頓特區的監管環境的變化。我認為,像所有人一樣,我們歡迎建議的變革,包括重新調整以安全和穩健為中心。但對我們來說,我們在所有專案中所做的一切,包括數據,都在按計劃進行。

  • We're focused on getting over the finishing line for our work. And we're looking forward to the transformation expense coming down next year because as we complete the different bodies of work, the associated expense comes off, both as a result of the implementation, but also from the efficiencies that we're gaining.

    我們專注於完成我們的工作。我們期待明年的轉型費用能夠下降,因為隨著我們完成不同的工作,相關費用也會減少,這不僅是實施的結果,也是我們效率提高的結果。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • And a short follow-up, the transformation expense for 2025, maybe this is for you, Mark, you said it was going to be more than $3 billion. So it was like $3.5 billion, $4 billion, $5 billion? Any kind of range for that?

    接下來是簡短的後續問題,2025 年的轉型費用,也許這是給你的,馬克,你說它將超過 30 億美元。那麼是 35 億美元、40 億美元還是 50 億美元?有什麼樣的範圍嗎?

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • Mike, I'd say it's a little bit under $3.5 billion in 2025. And again, as Jane mentioned, a lot of work being put in place to execute on that more efficiently, which is going to help bring that number down in '26.

    麥克,我認為到 2025 年會略低於 35 億美元。正如簡所提到的,我們正在進行大量工作以更有效地執行這一目標,這將有助於在 26 年降低這一數字。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

  • Betsy Graseck - Analyst

    Betsy Graseck - Analyst

  • I did just -- Jane, I did just want to understand how you're thinking about the Banamex transaction. I heard all the prepared remarks and we understand that you prefer to go with IPO route in ultimate value for shareholders.

    我只是——簡,我只是想了解你對 Banamex 交易的看法。我聽取了所有準備好的發言,我們了解到您更傾向於透過 IPO 途徑為股東帶來最終價值。

  • And I guess I wanted to understand how you're thinking about the timing between the offers that you've received versus the IPO timing that you are planning on executing? And is there a time frame in mind for ultimate value determination?

    我想了解一下,您是如何考慮收到的報價與您計劃執行的 IPO 時間之間的時間關係的?最終價值確定是否有一個時間框架?

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. so first, I'd just say, look, the 25% stake is a very significant part, a step in our path towards deconsolidation and ultimately a full exit, which is what everyone is focused on. We firmly believe that this transaction and subsequent IPO is going to both maximize value for our shareholders and critically has a high degree of certainty around it. And those two have been our North Stars as we've been going through this process.

    是的。首先,我想說,25% 的股份非常重要,是我們走向整合和最終完全退出的一步,這也是每個人都關注的。我們堅信,此次交易和隨後的 IPO 將為我們的股東實現價值最大化,至關重要的是,它具有高度的確定性。在我們經歷這個過程的過程中,這兩個人一直是我們的北極星。

  • And I would also just point to the Mexican President and how government have been publicly very supportive of this investment and our path forward. And that obviously gives us a higher degree of comfort around the certainty of close.

    我還要指出的是,墨西哥總統和政府一直公開支持這項投資以及我們的前進道路。這顯然讓我們對成交的確定性更加放心。

  • Now when we look at this path forward, I think the investment by Fernando is a real show of support for Banamex, and we believe his partnership is going to be very valuable as we move towards an IPO deconsolidation and ultimately, full exit. And there's a couple of big reasons for that.

    現在,當我們展望未來時,我認為費爾南多的投資是對 Banamex 的真正支持,我們相信,隨著我們走向 IPO 分拆並最終完全退出,他的合作將非常有價值。造成這種情況的主要原因有二。

  • One, he's a highly reputable business leader. He's got a 50-year track record of really driving value in his investments. So he's going to be a strong partner in realizing greater value from Banamex. He also brings a lot of experience and credibility that is very attractive to other investors, and his investment alone is a strong endorsement of Banamex relevance and potential. And that's also going to be very helpful as we look at bringing other investors and through the IPO and the like into the mix here.

    首先,他是一位享有盛譽的商業領袖。他在投資領域擁有 50 年的卓越業績,真正推動了投資價值的成長。因此,他將成為 Banamex 實現更大價值的強大合作夥伴。他也帶來了豐富的經驗和信譽,這對其他投資者來說非常有吸引力,光是他的投資就足以證明 Banamex 的相關性和潛力。當我們考慮引入其他投資者並透過 IPO 等方式參與其中時,這也將非常有幫助。

  • So in terms of the next steps, the 25% stake requires regulatory approval in Mexico. That typically takes 9- to 12 months. And then, for obvious reasons, it makes a lot of sense to get Fernando's regulatory approval ahead of the IPO. So where he has filed his regulatory approval is already in with the government. So that will go through the process. He is not dilly-dallying and hanging around on this, I'm delighted to say. And we will be ready to move forward once we get those approvals. And we're not hanging around either in terms of getting all the work done for that.

    因此就下一步而言,25%的股份需要獲得墨西哥監管部門的批准。這通常需要 9 到 12 個月。然後,出於顯而易見的原因,在 IPO 之前獲得 Fernando 的監管部門批准是非常有意義的。因此,他提交的監管批准已經提交給政府了。這樣就可以完成整個過程。我很高興地說,他在這件事上並沒有猶豫不決。一旦獲得批准,我們就會準備好繼續前進。我們也不會為了完成所有工作而拖延。

  • Betsy Graseck - Analyst

    Betsy Graseck - Analyst

  • Okay. And the 9- to 12 months approval timing, when does that commence?

    好的。9 至 12 個月的審批時間從什麼時候開始?

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's already started because his regulatory approval filing was put in this week.

    這項工作已經開始,因為他的監管批准文件已於本週提交。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

    格倫·肖爾 (Glenn Schorr),Evercore。

  • Glenn Schorr - Equity analyst

    Glenn Schorr - Equity analyst

  • What I want to get at with this question is, is the evolution versus revolution and stable client adoption. So I've seen some press releases. I've seen you join the euro stable coin banking coalition. I saw your announcement on Citi Payments Express. I'm assuming you're making a lot of investments towards this evolution.

    我想透過這個問題了解的是,進化與革命以及穩定的客戶採用。我看到了一些新聞稿。我看到你加入了歐元穩定幣銀行聯盟。我看到了您在 Citi Payments Express 上發布的公告。我假設你正在為這一發展做出大量投資。

  • So what I want to do is take your pulse on what is the pace of stable coin adoption? How important is it to your traditional banking and payments pipelines? Do you feel like you're ahead of the curve and you can make more money, not less as this all plays out?

    所以我想了解一下穩定幣的採用速度如何?它對您的傳統銀行業務和支付管道有多重要?您是否覺得自己已經走在了時代的前沿,可以賺更多的錢,而不是隨著這一切的發展而賺更少的錢?

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, of course, Glenn. Look, I want to take a step back on this one because, frankly, for our client base, the institutional client base, we see tokenized deposits as delivering what the client needs, and this is an area that we've invested in most heavily. And what the clients are after is real-time money movement with minimal to no friction and low cost.

    是的,當然,格倫。聽著,我想退一步談談這個問題,因為坦白說,對於我們的客戶群,即機構客戶群,我們認為代幣化存款可以滿足客戶的需求,而這也是我們投入最多的領域。客戶所追求的是即時資金流動,且摩擦最小甚至無摩擦,成本低廉。

  • And as we talked about last earnings call, we've been driving innovation around digital assets for many years. What is it our clients want? They want interoperable, multibank, cross-border, always-on-payment solutions. They want it provided in a safe and sound manner, and they want all the complexities solved for them: compliance, reporting, accounting, tax, AML.

    正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所討論的那樣,多年來我們一直在推動數位資產領域的創新。我們的客戶想要什麼?他們想要可互通、多銀行、跨境、始終在線支付的解決​​方案。他們希望以安全可靠的方式提供服務,並希望解決所有複雜問題:合規、報告、會計、稅務、反洗錢。

  • That, frankly, is best done by tokenized deposits. And we are that one-stop shop for our clients. We're constantly linking new capabilities, emerging technologies, we're bringing in partners. So we offer that holistic killer app for the institutional clients.

    坦白說,最好的辦法是透過代幣化存款來實現。我們為客戶提供一站式服務。我們不斷地整合新的能力、新興技術,並引進合作夥伴。因此,我們為機構客戶提供整體殺手級應用程式。

  • You saw us this earnings call, we're talking about linking our Citi Tokenized Services to the 24/7 US dollar clearing network. Now that means we can facilitate transactions across 250 banks in 40-plus markets, and that allows clients to frictionlessly transfer funds 24/7 to suppliers and third parties who hold accounts within Citi's extensive 24/7 US dollar clearing network. We are seeing demand and adoption increasing, but frankly, the gating factor is our clients' treasuries departments being ready for an always-on environment. And they just aren't at the moment.

    您看到了我們這次的財報電話會議,我們正在討論將花旗代幣化服務與全天候美元清算網絡聯繫起來。現在,這意味著我們可以促進 40 多個市場的 250 家銀行之間的交易,並允許客戶全天候無縫地向在花旗廣泛的全天候美元清算網絡內持有帳戶的供應商和第三方轉移資金。我們看到需求和採用率正在增加,但坦白說,限制因素是我們客戶的財務部門是否已為永遠在線的環境做好準備。但目前情況並非如此。

  • So what does that mean for stable coin? We will stand ready to support our clients' needs, whatever they are. We view stable coin as another option in the overall digital asset tool kit. It's got more friction because of the on-off ramp. It's got more friction because of the tax, the accounting, the AML, these are the requirements that our tokenized deposit capabilities avoid.

    那麼這對穩定幣意味著什麼?無論客戶有何需求,我們都將隨時準備好滿足。我們將穩定幣視為整體數位資產工具包中的另一種選擇。由於有上下坡道,摩擦力較大。由於稅收、會計、反洗錢等要求,它會產生更多摩擦,而我們的代幣化存款功能可以避免這些要求。

  • But we will continue to provide the on-off ramp solutions for stable coin exchanges. We will be providing and are providing custodial solutions to crypto asset to our asset manager clients. And we'll be providing corporate cash management services to the stable coin providers. We're about to go live with a number of new capabilities in that. And we're considering issuing our own true Citi stable coin.

    但我們將繼續為穩定幣交易所提供出入金解決方案。我們將為我們的資產管理客戶提供並正在提供加密資產的託管解決方案。我們將為穩定幣提供者提供企業現金管理服務。我們即將推出其中的許多新功能。我們正在考慮發行我們自己的真正的花旗穩定幣。

  • But I think when we -- there's I think is an overfocus on stable coin at the moment, whereas as a major payments-player, most of this is going to get sold by the tokenized deposit capabilities.

    但我認為,當我們——我認為目前過度關注穩定幣時,而作為主要的支付參與者,其中大部分將透過代幣化存款功能出售。

  • Glenn Schorr - Equity analyst

    Glenn Schorr - Equity analyst

  • That was a great full, answer. Thanks, Jane.

    這是一個非常完整的答案。謝謝,簡。

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'm passionate about it. Sorry, Glenn.

    我對此充滿熱情。抱歉,格倫。

  • Glenn Schorr - Equity analyst

    Glenn Schorr - Equity analyst

  • I love it. I can't wait for May. Can maybe just -- this is a super quick follow-up. Is you're fired up about tokenized deposits and what that can mean and way ahead of that. Does the potential -- is there a potential for the tokenization of all securities? Does that change how financial markets operate in general? I just wonder if you could just expand that. And then I'll back off.

    我喜歡它。我等不及五月了。也許只是——這是一個非常快速的後續行動。您是否對代幣化存款以及它的意義和未來發展感到興奮?是否有潛力-所有證券都具有代幣化的潛力?這是否會改變金融市場的整體運作方式?我只是想知道您是否可以擴展這一點。然後我就退出了。

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Absolutely. I was just talking about the payments piece. In the future, clients are going to want solutions that seamlessly offer financing, securities issuance, and settlement in a regulated trusted environment. If you can imagine oil, you can imagine equities, like this is going to go much more broader and we will be providing that as part of our toolkit. So that is definitely in the equation here.

    絕對地。我剛才談論的是支付部分。未來,客戶將需要能夠在受監管的可信任環境中無縫提供融資、證券發行和結算的解決方案。如果你能想像石油,你就能想像股票,像這樣的市場將會更加廣闊,我們將把它作為我們工具包的一部分提供。所以這肯定是這裡的等式。

  • And it's really terrific that the regulators are now letting us innovate in a responsible way because I think that is going to help the development of the market as we and other banks participate in this space. It will really help scale up.

    監管機構現在允許我們以負責任的方式進行創新,這真是太棒了,因為我認為這將有助於我們和其他銀行參與這一領域的市場發展。這確實有助於擴大規模。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John McDonald, Truist.

    約翰·麥克唐納,Truist。

  • John McDonald - Analyst

    John McDonald - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about the efficiency path for next year. It seems like you have some potential tailwinds to drive expenses lower next year, potentially lower severance, transformation spend and stranded costs. So Mark, I wanted to ask, is that fair that you see a path for directionally down expenses next year even if revenues are strong and do you still see the potential to exit next year at an efficiency ratio of below 60?

    我想問明年的效率路徑。看起來,您有一些潛在的順風因素可以推動明年的開支降低,可能降低遣散費、轉型支出和擱淺成本。所以馬克,我想問一下,即使收入強勁,您認為明年費用仍有可能下降,這公平嗎?您是否仍然認為明年有可能以低於 60 的效率比率退出?

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, John. I'd point to a couple of things as we think about 2026. And I'd just remind you and others that we're targeting an RoTCE of 10% to 11% next year. And it's important that we continue to show progress in our returns across the franchise. The second thing I'd point to is that, if I just kind of go back to where we are year-to-date for a second, we are demonstrating strong top line momentum. The year-to-date revenue is up 7%.

    謝謝,約翰。當我們思考 2026 年時,我想指出幾件事。我只是想提醒您和其他人,我們明年的目標是將 RoTCE 提高到 10% 到 11%。重要的是,我們要繼續展示整個特許經營的回報進展。我想指出的第二件事是,如果我回顧今年迄今為止的情況,我們正展現出強勁的營收勢頭。今年迄今的營收成長了7%。

  • And if you look at our expenses against that, leaving out the goodwill impairment, our expenses were flat. So we're showing very strong top line momentum and very strong discipline around managing our expense base. So as I think about 2026, that has to continue for us to deliver on the 10% to 11%. That is to say, continued top line momentum. And I've given -- obviously, it's more of what you've seen through the year-to-date performance and continued expense discipline. And that expense discipline is going to consider at least two things.

    如果你看一下我們的支出,撇開商譽減損,我們的支出是持平的。因此,我們在管理費用基礎方面表現出非常強勁的營收動能和非常嚴格的紀律。因此,我認為到 2026 年,我們必須繼續這樣做才能實現 10% 到 11% 的目標。也就是說,營收成長動能持續。我已經給出了——顯然,這更多的是你透過今年迄今為止的表現和持續的費用紀律所看到的。而費用紀律至少要考慮兩件事。

  • So one, the greater efficiencies that we've talked about in the past. You've mentioned some of those. The transformation expense coming down, the legacy/stranded costs continuing to come down, productivity from BAU activity. I've mentioned in the past, a lower severance, a more normalized severance. But it's also going to require investments in order to continue to fuel that top line momentum.

    首先,我們過去談到提高效率。您已經提到了其中的一些。轉型費用下降,遺留/擱淺成本持續下降,BAU 活動的生產力提高。我過去曾提到過,更低的遣散費,更規範的遣散費。但為了繼續推動這項營收成長勢頭,還需要投資。

  • So investments, one, that's tied to those higher revenue levels but also continued investments in parts of the franchise like Banking, in parts of the franchise like Services. You just heard Jane mention the investments we're making in token services.

    因此,投資首先與更高的收入水平相關,而且還會繼續投資於銀行等特許經營部分以及服務等特許經營部分。您剛剛聽到 Jane 提到我們在代幣服務所做的投資。

  • And so striking that right balance so that we are not only delivering 10% to 11%, what north of that beyond 2026 is really important. So what does all of that mean? That means, as I think about 2026, I lead with the 10% to 11%. I follow on by productivity and the need for investments. I'm targeting the less than 60 as I come out of 2026 or in 2026, as I've said before.

    因此,找到正確的平衡點,以便我們不僅能實現 10% 到 11% 的目標,而且在 2026 年之後實現這一目標也非常重要。那麼這一切意味著什麼呢?這意味著,當我考慮 2026 年時,我將以 10% 到 11% 領先。我接下來討論的是生產力和投資需求。我的目標是在 2026 年或 2026 年達到 60 歲以下,正如我之前所說的。

  • John McDonald - Analyst

    John McDonald - Analyst

  • Great. That's really helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. Thinking a little bit longer term, what's the ultimate end state for the $3.5 billion or so in transformation spend? Does it go away? Does it morph into kind of a regular BAU investment spend at some point? And how does that evolve over time?

    偉大的。這真的很有幫助。然後只是快速的跟進。從更長遠的角度來看,35億美元左右的轉型支出最終會達到什麼效果?它會消失嗎?它是否會在某個時候轉變為一種常規的 BAU 投資支出?隨著時間的推移,它會如何演變?

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • I'm smiling here, John, because I knew as soon as I shared the number, the very next question would be what happens with it, right? And I think, as I mentioned, it's going to come down in 2026 for all the reasons we've mentioned, including making significant progress on the transformation.

    約翰,我在這裡笑了,因為我知道,一旦我分享了這個數字,下一個問題就是會發生什麼,對吧?我認為,正如我所提到的,由於我們所提到的所有原因,包括在轉型方面取得重大進展,這一數字將在 2026 年下降。

  • We'll obviously share more with you in terms of where the expense base is growing and the transformation expenses are going beyond that at Investor Day. And so I'll ask you to kind of stay tuned as it relates to that. But I don't want to kind of miss the opportunity to state again that in order for us to get to the improved returns beyond 2026, we've got to have that right balance of squeezing out as much as we can in efficiencies and redeploying so that we can capture growth and upside as we serve our clients beyond.

    在投資人日,我們顯然會與大家分享更多有關費用基礎成長和轉型費用成長的資訊。因此,我請您繼續關注此事。但我不想錯過再次聲明的機會,為了讓我們在 2026 年以後獲得更好的回報,我們必須在盡可能提高效率和重新部署之間取得適當的平衡,以便我們能夠在為客戶提供服務的同時獲得增長和上行空間。

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And I'd encourage everyone just to look at the track record we've got. I mean, we've been consistently growing revenues whilst investing in the transformation, whilst investing in the businesses. And at the same time, we've been keeping the expense base at a low and very disciplined level. And that's a discipline you can expect to see us continuing.

    我鼓勵大家看看我們所取得的成績。我的意思是,我們在投資轉型和業務的同時,也一直在增加收入。同時,我們一直將支出基數維持在較低且非常嚴格的水準。您可以期待我們繼續堅持這項紀律。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global.

    吉姆·米切爾,Seaport Global。

  • Jim Mitchell - Analyst

    Jim Mitchell - Analyst

  • Mark, maybe just a question on NII. I think based on the guidance for this year, seems like you're flat to up in the fourth quarter. As you guys have pointed out in your Qs, you have limited sensitivity to US dollars. So how do -- is 4Q a decent jumping off point for next year? Can you grow from that level? How should we think about the puts and takes around asset repricing and balance sheet growth and headwinds from rates?

    馬克,也許這只是一個關於 NII 的問題。我認為根據今年的指導,第四季的業績似乎將持平或上升。正如你們在問題中指出的那樣,你們對美元的敏感度有限。那麼,第四季是否是明年的一個好起點?你能從那個層次成長嗎?我們該如何看待資產重新定價、資產負債表成長和利率阻力帶來的賣權和買權?

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. What I'd say is a couple of things. One, I do expect to see continued growth in NII as we go into 2026 at this point. We're obviously putting together our operating budgets now, but I do anticipate continued growth. And I think there are a couple of drivers, many of which have played out through most of the year here.

    是的。我想說幾件事。首先,我確實預計,隨著我們進入 2026 年,NII 將繼續成長。我們現在顯然正在製定營運預算,但我確實預計會繼續成長。我認為有幾個驅動因素,其中許多因素在今年的大部分時間裡都發揮了作用。

  • So one is, I expect that we'll see continued growth in deposits, operating deposits, deposits on our retail banking side, both of which have shown up quite healthily in the quarter. I expect that to continue. I expect to see continued loan momentum, particularly on the branded card side, but also in the trade lending activity, which also showed up very nicely this quarter.

    因此,首先,我預計我們的存款、經營存款和零售銀行存款將繼續成長,這兩項在本季都表現得相當健康。我希望這種情況能夠持續下去。我預計貸款將持續成長勢頭,特別是在品牌卡方面,貿易貸款活動也在本季表現得非常好。

  • And I'd expect that the investment portfolio that you've heard me talk about before, will continue to roll off and mature, and we'll be able to deploy that yet still at higher rates in cash and other securities as we go through 2026. And then the final piece is, obviously, I would also expect that there'd be more rate cuts and discipline around pricing and the importance of us reminding our clients that our offering is a lot more than just holding their deposits will help to mitigate some of that pressure.

    我預計,您之前聽我談到的投資組合將繼續滾動和成熟,到 2026 年,我們將能夠以更高的利率將其部署在現金和其他證券中。最後一點是,顯然,我還希望在定價方面會有更多的降息和紀律,並且我們提醒客戶,我們提供的服務不僅僅是持有他們的存款,這將有助於減輕一些壓力。

  • And so when I put all of that together, I do see continued growth in NII, perhaps not at the same pace, but certainly continued growth ex-markets as I go into 2026. I hope that helps a little bit.

    因此,當我把所有這些因素綜合起來時,我確實看到了 NII 的持續增長,也許速度不會相同,但隨著進入 2026 年,市場外的增長肯定會繼續。我希望這能有所幫助。

  • Jim Mitchell - Analyst

    Jim Mitchell - Analyst

  • No, that's very helpful. And maybe just on the capital target of 12.8% and the stepped-up buybacks this quarter, is this a pace we should expect until you get to 12.8%? Just sort of curious on your thoughts on how quickly you get to 12.8%.

    不,這非常有幫助。也許僅就 12.8% 的資本目標和本季加強的回購力度而言,這是我們應該預期的速度,直到達到 12.8% 為止?我只是有點好奇你如何快速達到 12.8%。

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • I'm smiling again, Jim, because the last quarter I said that we weren't going to give guidance on a quarterly basis as it relates to buybacks. And I want to stick to that. But I would remind you that we do have a $20 billion buyback program that's out there. We've been making good progress against that. We'll continue to make progress against that.

    吉姆,我又笑了,因為上個季度我說過,我們不會按季度提供與回購相關的指導。我想要堅持這一點。但我要提醒你,我們確實有一個 200 億美元的回購計畫。我們在這方面已經取得了良好的進展。我們將繼續在這方面取得進展。

  • 12.8% is what we will target from a CET1 ratio. And I think you'll see that come -- or 13.2% come down towards that over the next couple of quarters. And we're going to strike the right balance between deploying capital back into the business at accretive returns in order to continue to drive growth that improves returns and returning capital to shareholders, particularly given where we're trading, right?

    12.8% 是我們 CET1 比率的目標。我認為你會看到這一數字在未來幾季下降 13.2%。我們將在將資本重新投入到業務中以增加回報以繼續推動成長、提高回報和向股東返還資本之間取得適當的平衡,特別是考慮到我們的交易情況,對嗎?

  • And so while we have seen good performance in the stock over the course of the year, we're still at and around kind of 1x tangible book value, and I think there's more upside to the stock. And so we want to strike that right balance between return on and return up.

    因此,儘管我們看到該股在一年中表現良好,但我們的股價仍處於有形帳面價值的 1 倍左右,我認為該股還有更大的上漲空間。因此,我們希望在回報和回報上升之間取得適當的平衡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erika Najarian, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • My first question, Mark, just wanted to make sure I understand all of the technical nuances that you laid out on slide 16. So the CTA impact is essentially neutral at deconsolidation. And in addition, we should get the capital release from the RWA reduction, I think it was $27 billion from the Mexican financial statements, and any gains and losses on sales.

    馬克,我的第一個問題只是想確保我理解了你在第 16 張投影片上列出的所有技術細節。因此,CTA 的影響在拆分時基本上是中性的。此外,我們還應該從風險加權資產減少中獲得資本釋放,我認為從墨西哥財務報表中獲得的資本釋放是 270 億美元,以及銷售收益和損失。

  • So the CTA is separately capital neutral, but the ultimate capital benefit will be determined by that capital release and the ultimate valuation of Banamex. And if that -- if I'm understanding that correctly, had to slip it in there, what is the allocated TCE to Banamex?

    因此,CTA 單獨來看是資本中立的,但最終的資本利得將取決於資本釋放和 Banamex 的最終估值。如果——如果我理解正確的話,必須把它放進去,分配給 Banamex 的 TCE 是多少?

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So let me just kind of clarify one point. I think you've largely got it, which is there's an important distinction between deconsolidation and full exit. The deconsolidation, as you point out, would trigger that CTA flowing through the P&L and ultimately, that will be capital neutral, right? So that is absolutely correct.

    當然。因此,請允許我澄清一點。我認為您基本上已經明白了,即解除合併和完全退出之間存在重要區別。正如您所指出的,拆分將觸發 CTA 流經損益表,最終實現資本中性,對嗎?這是絕對正確的。

  • And then at the full exit, what we would expect in the way of the capital impact will be the capital associated with the risk-weighted assets and the gain or loss, the cumulative gain or loss on sale. The capital associated with the risk-weighted assets, the risk-weighted asset is about $37 billion, okay? So you can kind of run the math of a 13.2% against the $37 billion and get a proxy for how much how much capital we have allocated here.

    然後,在完全退出時,我們預計資本影響將是與風險加權資產相關的資本以及收益或損失、銷售的累積收益或損失。與風險加權資產相關的資本,風險加權資產約 370 億美元,好嗎?因此,你可以將 13.2% 與 370 億美元進行比較,從而得出我們在這裡分配了多少資本的代理金額。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Perfect. And my second question is for Jane. Jane, your award for all the improvement that you've shown is a higher bar right, I think, is what you're seeing, and we're all looking forward to this May Investor Day. And I guess this is a two-part question.

    完美的。我的第二個問題是問簡的。簡,你所展示的所有進步所獲得的獎勵是更高的標準,我認為,這就是你所看到的,我們都期待著五月投資者日。我想這個問題可以分成兩個部分。

  • As you approach the 10% to 11% return on tangible common equity goal for next year, and you think about being two-thirds of the way done with the transformation, is May the right time to address maybe more end-state capital targets the way JPMorgan has addressed and Wells also gave us an update today?

    當您接近明年 10% 至 11% 的有形普通股權益回報率目標時,並且您認為轉型已完成三分之二,那麼 5 月份是否是解決更多最終資本目標的正確時機,就像摩根大通和富國銀行今天向我們提供的最新信息一樣?

  • And if we get more regulatory certainty, you've obviously gotten a lot of volatility in the past from stress test results. And especially as we think about deconsolidating and fully exiting Banamex and the regulatory momentum, is a 100-basis-point still the right buffer for this company as we look forward?

    如果我們獲得更多的監管確定性,那麼顯然過去壓力測試結果會帶來很大的波動。尤其是當我們考慮拆分並完全退出 Banamex 以及監管勢頭時,展望未來,100 個基點是否仍然是該公司的正確緩衝?

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Wow, there's a lot in that. Let me just try and pick a few pieces of it. So we've always been clear 10% to 11% RoTCE target is a waypoint, not a destination. And so in May, we -- as I talked about earlier, we see a lot of different areas of upside. Mark talked about some of the different areas earlier in the call on the revenue growth dimension.

    哇,裡面有很多東西。讓我試著挑選其中的幾個部分。因此,我們一直明確,10% 到 11% 的 RoTCE 目標是一個路徑點,而不是一個目的地。因此,正如我之前提到的,在五月份,我們看到了許多不同的上漲空間。馬克早些時候在電話會議上談到了收入成長的一些不同領域。

  • So we'll lay out what do we see for the different businesses, what is the path forward? And therefore, what is the longer-term targets that we're expecting to see? In terms of the regulatory environment, I think we're very happy to see a lot of the proposals getting more clarity. We saw ESLR coming through. We would expect to see G-SIB, Basel III, CCAR with much more clarity in the first quarter.

    因此,我們將闡述我們對不同業務的看法,以及未來發展的方向是什麼?那麼,我們期望看到的長期目標是什麼?就監管環境而言,我認為我們很高興看到許多提案變得更加清晰。我們看到 ESLR 正在通過。我們預計第一季 G-SIB、巴塞爾協議 III 和 CCAR 將更加清晰。

  • So that will be good timing for being able to lay out what that means for the May Investor Day, assuming that remains at pace, obviously, not in our hands, the timing around it. And so I think you will end up with much more clarity about what that -- what is the end state, if there ever is an end state. Mark, why don't you jump in?

    因此,現在是一個很好的時機,可以闡明這對 5 月份投資者日意味著什麼,假設這一進程保持下去,顯然,時間安排並不在我們手中。因此,我認為你最終會更清楚地了解最終狀態是什麼,如果有最終狀態的話。馬克,你為什麼不跳進去呢?

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. The only thing I'd add to that is with the progress we're making in executing on the strategy, I'm sure you've noticed that we're generating a more steady and predictable earnings stream and on top of that, growing our earnings. And that, in part, is shown up in the stress capital buffer reduction that we've now seen for two years in a row.

    是的。我唯一要補充的是,隨著我們在執行策略方面取得的進展,我相信您已經注意到,我們正在產生更穩定和可預測的獲利流,最重要的是,我們的獲利還在成長。這在某種程度上體現在我們已經連續兩年看到的壓力資本緩衝減少。

  • Now we have to get clarity on kind of how that's going to be applied, whether it be averaging or not. But I highlight that because we're going to continue the work and how we're running the franchise in order to improve, and therefore, continue to reduce what happens in a CCAR stressed analysis.

    現在我們必須弄清楚如何應用它,無論是否平均。但我強調這一點是因為我們將繼續努力並改進特許經營方式,從而繼續減少 CCAR 壓力分析中發生的情況。

  • The other piece that I'd highlight is there are obviously other aspects to the regulatory environment that are still in flux, although they look like they will be favorable, G-SIB, the Basel III end game, et cetera. And by the time we get to May, we hope to have clarity on that, which can therefore, inform how we think about the future.

    我想強調的另一點是,監管環境的其他方面顯然仍在不斷變化,儘管它們看起來是有利的,例如 G-SIB、巴塞爾協議 III 的最終結果等等。到五月的時候,我們希望能夠明確這一點,從而引導我們如何思考未來。

  • As it relates to the management buffer, you've heard me mentioned repeatedly that we look at that all the time, and we're constantly looking at everything from the certainty we're getting in the regulatory capital requirements, and that's improving as we mentioned before, to how we think about internal stress analysis and the volatility in RWA and the like. And so we'll continue to look at that and look for opportunities where it makes sense to reduce that, and we'll share that if and when we get to that conclusion.

    至於管理緩衝,您已經聽我反复提到過,我們一直在關注這一點,我們一直在關註一切,從我們在監管資本要求中獲得的確定性(正如我們之前提到的,這種情況正在改善),到我們如何看待內部壓力分析和 RWA 的波動性等等。因此,我們將繼續關注這個問題,尋找減少這種情況的合理機會,如果我們得出結論,我們會與大家分享。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • Just a quick question, Mark. You talked about credit reserves and the unemployment rate that you have there. But just talk to us when you think about -- and I think Jane said like some softness in the economy. When we think about the consumer cards book expectations, any kind of red or yellow fat flags that you're seeing there?

    只是一個簡單的問題,馬克。您談到了信貸儲備和那裡的失業率。但是當你想到——我認為簡說過經濟有些疲軟的時候,請和我們談談。當我們考慮消費者卡片書的期望時,您看到任何紅色或黃色的粗旗嗎?

  • If you don't mind addressing like I'm looking at sort of the non-accrual loans, a pretty decent jump in sort of corporate non-accruals quarter-over-quarter. Like was that a one-off? Do you expect that as some of the sort of, I guess, banking book seasons? Would love some perspective there.

    如果您不介意的話,我正在研究非應計貸款,企業非應計貸款的季度環比增長相當可觀。那是一次性的事嗎?您是否認為這會是某種銀行帳簿銷售季?希望能夠從那裡獲得一些觀點。

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Let me start with that piece, and then we can come back to the consumer. We did see a tick-up in NALs in the third quarter. The quarter-over-quarter increase is really driven by two idiosyncratic downgrades. I'd say the NALs represent a relatively small percentage of our funded loans.

    當然。讓我從這個部分開始,然後我們再回到消費者問題。我們確實看到第三季 NAL 有所上升。季度環比增長實際上是由兩次特殊的降級所推動的。我想說 NAL 只占我們所提供貸款的一小部分。

  • And when you look at the percentage there, you can see on the page, it is a small number. We're well reserved against -- from a coverage point of view, so the NAL reserve coverage remains adequate at over 2x, and in many cases, with sufficient collateral and some upgrades expected.

    當您查看頁面上的百分比時,您會發現它是一個很小的數字。從覆蓋率的角度來看,我們做好了充分的準備,因此 NAL 儲備覆蓋率仍然足夠,超過 2 倍,並且在許多情況下,有足夠的抵押品和一些預期的升級。

  • And so I think that while the number is large in terms of the increase, we could really point to two idiosyncratic names as the major driver and take some comfort in the NAL as a percentage of funded loans remaining low in the quarter. We're obviously watching this very closely. But again, with many of these still paying, we feel good about our exposure at this point.

    因此,我認為,儘管從增幅來看這個數字很大,但我們確實可以將兩個特殊的名稱作為主要驅動力,並且從 NAL 中獲得一些安慰,因為本季度的已融資貸款比例仍然很低。我們顯然正在密切關注此事。但是,由於其中許多仍在支付費用,我們對目前的風險敞口感到滿意。

  • And in terms of consumer, I'd point to a couple of things. So one, the losses that we've seen in the quarter are inside of the ranges that we've given both for the branded card portfolio as well as for the retail services portfolio. I think consumers are being very discerning in terms of how they spend. The spend increase that we've seen is largely in branded that has tended to be in the higher income consumers. And I think importantly, when I look at the delinquency trends, the delinquency trends are also performing in a very normal fashion in terms of early buckets.

    就消費者而言,我想指出幾點。因此,首先,我們在本季看到的損失都在我們為品牌卡組合和零售服務組合給出的範圍內。我認為消費者在消費方面非常精明。我們看到的支出成長主要集中在品牌消費上,而品牌消費往往集中在高收入消費者身上。我認為重要的是,當我觀察違約趨勢時,就早期階段而言,違約趨勢也表現得非常正常。

  • I'm not seeing any signs of a change in that direction or in that normalcy. And so as I look at our book, I'm very comfortable with our exposure. I'm very comfortable with the reserves that we have. I'm very comfortable, frankly, with some of the actions we took a year plus ago as we looked at how we wanted to underwrite consumers. And I think that has afforded us some of what we're seeing here.

    我沒有看到任何朝著這個方向或常態改變的跡象。因此,當我看到我們的書時,我對我們的曝光感到非常滿意。我對我們現有的儲備非常滿意。坦白說,我對我們一年多前在考慮如何為消費者提供保險時採取的一些行動感到非常滿意。我認為這為我們提供了這裡所看到的一些現象。

  • I'm still very cautious. We are running our operations in a recession-ready mode. We're watching men payments in order to get any early signals of stress. But again, as I look at the book, I feel comfortable with where we are and where our consumers are trending. Jane, you may want to add to that?

    我還是很謹慎的。我們正以因應經濟衰退的模式開展業務。我們正在觀察男性的付款情況,以便儘早發現壓力訊號。但是,當我再次看這本書時,我對我們所處的位置以及我們的消費者的趨勢感到滿意。簡,你可能想補充一下嗎?

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I think one of the things I point to everyone is the advantage of our strategy. If you look at our consumer customers, 85% of them are prime. If you look at our corporate customers, we've got a pretty pristine blue-chip portfolio. And we moved from serving millions of clients internationally to a few tens of thousands.

    是的。我認為我要向大家指出的一點就是我們的策略優勢。如果你看看我們的消費者客戶,你會發現其中 85% 都是黃金客戶。如果你看看我們的企業客戶,你會發現我們擁有相當完美的藍籌投資組合。我們的國際客戶服務客戶數量從數百萬減少到了數萬人。

  • And that affords us to have focus on them, a real understanding of them, a depth of diligence around them and that is very beneficial. We're very disciplined in our credit assessments, in our client selection, in our concentrations, in our hedging and in our sell-downs.

    這使我們能夠集中精力,真正理解它們,並對它們進行深入的調查,這是非常有益的。我們在信用評估、客戶選擇、集中度、對沖和減持方面都非常嚴謹。

  • So I look at an environment where you've had a sizable run-up in the market despite tariff and other headwinds, it could well be a correction at some point. But I feel very good about how we will be positioned around that. And we have a very fiscally disciplined consumer base and, as I say, a very prime one. So we're ready for whatever the environment is and well positioned.

    因此,我認為,儘管存在關稅和其他不利因素,但市場仍出現了大幅上漲,在某個時候,這很可能是一種調整。但我對我們的定位感到非常滿意。我們擁有一個財政紀律非常嚴格的消費者群體,正如我所說,這是一個非常優質的消費者群體。因此,無論環境如何,我們都已做好準備並做好充分準備。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And I guess just one, if we could get a mark-to-market on the wealth business, Jane. When I look at sort of the year-over-year operating leverage being meaningful revenue growth versus expense growth, but again, a lot of that driven by NII. Just talk to us in terms of if the low-hanging fruit been picked in terms of what Andy is doing in that business? And what's the outlook from here, both in terms of just how you think operating leverage and RoTCE improving?

    這很有幫助。我想只有一個問題,如果我們可以對財富業務進行以市價計價,簡。當我看到同比營業槓桿時,就會發現收入成長與支出成長之間有顯著差異,但其中很大一部分是由 NII 推動的。請與我們談談安迪在該行業所做的事情是否已經取得了一些成果?那麼從您的角度來看,經營槓桿和 RoTCE 將如何改善?

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Thank you. No, I think this quarter is another good one for Wealth in terms of good strong revenue growth at 8%, the improvement in the RoTCE as the sixth consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage. And I think the piece we were particularly pleased about was the record $18.6 billion of net new investment assets. And this is a direct result of the strategy we've been implementing over the past couple of years that you can expect continuing, and it centers on becoming the lead investment adviser for our clients. That is the center of the strategy.

    是的。謝謝。不,我認為本季對 Wealth 來說又是一個好季度,營收成長強勁,達到 8%,RoTCE 有所改善,這是連續第六個季度實現正向營運槓桿。我認為我們特別高興的是創紀錄的 186 億美元淨新投資資產。這是我們過去幾年一直在實施的策略的直接結果,您可以期待我們繼續實施該策略,其核心是成為我們客戶的首席投資顧問。這是該戰略的核心。

  • And what we've been doing, we've been strengthening the CIO research product. We've been retooling key areas of the investment product platform. You've seen us aligning behind open architecture as a key operating principle. We've been deepening our partnerships with top-notch third-party asset management firms.

    我們一直在做的是加強 CIO 研究產品。我們一直在重新調整投資產品平台的關鍵領域。您已經看到我們一致支持開放式架構作為關鍵的營運原則。我們一直在深化與頂級第三方資產管理公司的合作關係。

  • And all of this is helping us drive up the investment fee revenues and executing across this famous $5 trillion of opportunity we have with our existing clients. We're also elevating collaboration between USPB, Banking and Markets. And we're seeing some very strong two-way referrals between each of these different groups. And that, again, supports our growth in net new investment assets and revenues in Wealth overall.

    所有這些都幫助我們提高投資費收入,並實現我們與現有客戶共同擁有的這個著名的 5 兆美元商機。我們也正在加強 USPB、銀行和市場之間的合作。我們看到這些不同群體之間存在著非常強大的雙向推薦。這再次支持了我們整體財富淨新投資資產和收入的成長。

  • And we're deploying new AI-powered capabilities, and that's also getting great early feedback. We've got AskWealth, which is a Gen AI-powered inquiry engine that's handling thousands of clients and service questions with rapid updates. We have adviser insights, which was launched with very strong early adoption that delivers personalized data-driven engagement opportunities for advisers. We had a 75% usage rate on that. So a lot of adviser demand.

    我們正在部署新的人工智慧功能,也獲得了良好的早期回饋。我們有 AskWealth,這是一個由 Gen AI 驅動的查詢引擎,可以快速更新處理數千個客戶和服務問題。我們擁有顧問洞察,在早期推出時就得到了非常廣泛的採用,為顧問提供了個人化的數據驅動參與機會。我們的使用率為 75%。因此有很多顧問的需求。

  • So what all of this means is this is driving our long-term objectives of becoming the lead investment adviser for our clients with a long runway ahead of us as we scale up the business. And so we will just continue. Yes, we will continue to have good expense discipline. We'll be focused around how we use the balance sheet in the context of the overall client relationship.

    因此,所有這一切意味著,這將推動我們的長期目標,即成為客戶的首席投資顧問,隨著業務規模的擴大,我們還有很長的路要走。因此我們將繼續下去。是的,我們將繼續嚴格控制開支。我們將重點放在如何在整體客戶關係中使用資產負債表。

  • You can see from the numbers, we've come a long way, but there's just -- there's more work to do, but there's just enormous upside as we go, we scale up, and that scaling is all in our control. I hope that give you a sense of what are the different elements.

    從數字上可以看出,我們已經取得了長足的進步,但還有更多的工作要做,但隨著我們不斷前進,規模不斷擴大,我們將擁有巨大的上升空間,而這種擴大完全在我們的掌控之中。我希望這能讓您了解不同的元素是什麼。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

    肯‧烏斯丁,自主研究。

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

    Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • Just a quick one on the expense side, Mark. Just you mentioned the sub-64% efficiency ratio for the year. Just looking in the deck, it looks like the year-to-date has been 62%. You typically do have a little bit of a higher exit on that. Just wanted to ask you just what should we be thinking about as far as fourth quarter expenses versus the 13.6% in the third quarter, ex the impairment charge in terms of the seasonality, the expected kind of down drift in trading that you mentioned earlier and any other pieces on the severance and such.

    馬克,我只想簡單談談費用方面的問題。您剛才提到今年的效率比率低於 64%。僅從牌面上看,今年迄今的成績似乎達到了 62%。通常情況下,你的退出率會稍微高一些。我只是想問您,就第四季度的費用與第三季度的 13.6% 相比,我們應該考慮什麼,例如季節性的減值費用、您之前提到的預期交易下滑以及遣散費等其他部分。

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • I think the couple of things I'd point you to. One is the FX impact, which you can see in the back of the deck on Page 26. You can see that's going to contribute to the $53.4 billion that we have out there to the tune of probably close to $400 million. It obviously -- or I should say, obviously, it's going to likely be EBIT neutral, but that's certainly the headwind to think about as you think about what's -- how much higher the $53.4 billion might be.

    我想向你指出以下幾件事。一個是 FX 效果,您可以在第 26 頁的卡座背面看到它。您可以看到,這將為我們現有的 534 億美元貢獻約 4 億美元。顯然——或者我應該說,顯然,它可能對息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 來說是中性的,但當你考慮 534 億美元可能高出多少時,這肯定是一個需要考慮的阻力。

  • And then the other piece to think about is the performance. So what we assume in terms of how much higher than the $84 billion, if you include FX, how much higher that might be will be the other factor that drives the expenses up above the [$53.8 billion], if you will, right? And so I already guided towards NII ex-markets being up around 5.5% and that obviously is going to contribute to whatever the number is north of the $84 billion we have on the page.

    然後要考慮的另一個問題是效能。因此,我們假設比 840 億美元高出多少,如果包括外匯,那麼可能高出多少將是導致支出超過 [538 億美元] 的另一個因素,對嗎?因此,我已經預測 NII 市場外的漲幅將達到 5.5% 左右,這顯然將有助於實現我們目前所公佈的 840 億美元以上的目標。

  • And then on the market piece, again, I've given you some context for what we've seen historically. But given the strong quarter here, you have to make an assumption in terms of how much sequential decline we might see in the fourth quarter. So I think those are the puts and takes really -- how much higher we are than the $53.4 million is the byproduct of FX and outperformance on the top line. Everything else we've been very disciplined about as it relates to the expense targets that we set.

    然後關於市場部分,我再次向大家介紹了一些歷史上所見的情況。但考慮到本季的強勁表現,你必須對第四季可能出現的連續下滑幅度做出假設。所以我認為這些實際上是投入和產出——我們比 5,340 萬美元高出多少是外匯和營收優異表現的副產品。我們對與我們設定的費用目標相關的其他所有事情都十分嚴格。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

    傑拉德·卡西迪,加拿大皇家銀行。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Can you share with us -- I think in your second quarter Q, you gave us the interest sensitivity of the balance sheet. And obviously, we'll see it in the third quarter. And if I recall, I think 100 basis points instantaneous change in rates. You guys guided that NII could decline about $1.7 billion. But if we just see the Fed, I'd say the long end of the curve stays anchored around 4% to 4.5%, and the Fed cuts another 60 basis points -- excuse me, 50 basis points over the next three months or so, how does that impact your net interest income for -- over the next six months or so?

    您能否與我們分享一下—我想在您第二季的報告中,您向我們提供了資產負債表的利率敏感度。顯然,我們將在第三季看到它。如果我沒記錯的話,我認為利率瞬時變化了 100 個基點。你們預測 NII 可能會下降約 17 億美元。但如果我們只看美聯儲,我會說曲線的長端保持在 4% 至 4.5% 左右,而美聯儲在未來三個月左右再降息 60 個基點——對不起,是 50 個基點,這會對您未來六個月左右的淨利息收入產生什麼影響?

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • I think the simple way to think about it is what I shared in the second quarter was for total US and non-USD. And it was a drag of about $1.8 billion for a 100-basis-point decline across all currencies and across the curve. So when you break that down, Gerard, it's only about $400 million in the USD.

    我認為,簡單的思考方式就是我在第二季分享的是美國和非美元總額。所有貨幣和整個曲線下跌 100 個基點,拖累了約 18 億美元的損失。因此,傑拉德,當你把它分解開來時,它只有大約 4 億美元。

  • And so -- and that's again for assuming a parallel shift across the curve, a 100 basis points. We've been working to bring that down further. So we'll report a number in the third quarter Q, and you'll see that number coming down. I don't want to disclose it at this point but coming down from the negative $400 million.

    所以 — — 這再次假設曲線平行移動 100 個基點。我們一直在努力進一步降低這一水平。因此,我們將在第三季報告一個數字,你會看到該數字下降。我現在不想透露這個數字,但已經從負 4 億美元降下來了。

  • So you can kind of do the math on that. Again, that's a parallel shift. It's not that different if you were to look at kind of just on the overnight rate change, most of our short-term exposures out in the non-USD. So hopefully, that helps. But you can see the number is relatively small and declining assuming the 100 basis points.

    所以你可以對此進行計算。再次強調,這是一個平行轉變。如果你只看隔夜利率變化,我們的大部分短期曝險都與非美元有關,那麼情況並沒有什麼不同。希望這能有所幫助。但你可以看到,假設為 100 個基點,這個數字相對較小且正在下降。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • And then as a follow-up question, there's been a lot of discussion on other calls today and in amongst investors about loans to non-depository financial institutions, especially since -- when you look at the industry, it's more than doubled in about five years, and rapid loan growth is always something we want to pay attention to.

    然後作為後續問題,今天在其他電話會議上以及投資者之間對非存款金融機構的貸款進行了大量討論,特別是因為 - 當你觀察這個行業時,它在大約五年內增長了一倍多,快速的貸款增長始終是我們要關注的事情。

  • Can you -- and you guys have, according to the regulatory filings at the end of the second quarter, about $104 billion here. Can you give us some color or insights into the different lines that you lend into, and how comfortable you are with this credit?

    根據第二季末的監管文件,你們的投資金額約為 1,040 億美元。您能否向我們詳細介紹您提供的不同貸款種類,以及您對此類貸款的滿意度如何?

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So the first thing I'd point out is that this MBFI disclosure that all the banks do in the Y-9C consists of a very broad set of exposures. It includes private credit, but it is very broad. The second point I'd make is that it's primarily made up of securitization exposures with diversified collateral pools. So there's some consumer-related mortgage, credit card, audit, there's some corporate related that includes the private credit or broadly syndicated.

    當然。因此,我要指出的第一件事是,所有銀行在 Y-9C 中所做的 MBFI 揭露都包含非常廣泛的風險敞口。它包括私人信貸,但範圍很廣。我要說的第二點是,它主要由具有多元化抵押品池的證券化風險敞口組成。因此,有一些與消費者相關的抵押貸款、信用卡、審計,還有一些與企業相關的,包括私人信貸或廣泛的銀團貸款。

  • There's some commercial real estate. All of that is kind of captured in this MBFI category. Overall, I would say the MBFI exposure is predominantly investment grade. So that's a consistent theme for us as a firm, certainly is the case as it relates to how it's reflected in this disclosure. That means we're working with top-tier asset managers that are sponsors of private credit or established consumer platforms.

    有一些商業房地產。所有這些都包含在 MBFI 類別中。整體而言,我認為 MBFI 的風險敞口主要是投資等級的。因此,對於我們公司來說,這是一個始終如一的主題,當然,這與它如何反映在本次披露中有關。這意味著我們正在與私人信貸或成熟消費者平台的贊助商頂級資產管理公司合作。

  • We're maintaining collateral pools that are well diversified with concentration limits. We're ensuring that there are structural protections, including ample subordination that helps to result in the high investment-grade attachment point. And we're monitoring all the underlying collateral, and we have transparency at the loan-by-loan level.

    我們維持多元化且集中度受限的抵押品池。我們正在確保有結構性保護,包括有助於實現高投資等級附著點的充分從屬關係。我們正在監控所有基礎抵押品,並且在每筆貸款層面都保持透明度。

  • And so when I kind of take a step back and look at that, we're very selective from a risk perspective as to how we play across all of these subcategories, but particularly as it relates to private credit. And I think the key takeaway is that, that category is very broad.

    因此,當我退一步來看這個問題時,我們會從風險的角度非常有選擇性地處理所有這些子類別,特別是與私人信貸相關的子類別。我認為關鍵的一點是,這個類別非常廣泛。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

    史考特·西佛斯、派珀·桑德勒。

  • R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

    R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Market. I was hoping you could expand a bit on the strategy in the card portfolio. I think with the Strata card, you kind of left the impression that Citi is becoming a more visible competitor near the upper end. So is there a sort of a conscious change in the complexion of the card portfolio overall that we should expect to see evolve over the next few years? Or is this more just that you're kind of layering on a product that was a bit of a gap previously. What's the best way to think about that?

    市場。我希望您能稍微擴展一下卡片組合的策略。我認為,透過 Strata 卡,您給人留下了這樣的印象:花旗正在成為高端市場更明顯的競爭對手。那麼,我們是否應該期待在未來幾年內看到卡片組合的整體面貌發生某種有意識的變化?或者這只是你對之前存在一些差距的產品進行分層。思考這個問題的最佳方式是什麼?

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So I think the first thing you center around is we're a leader in payments and lending today, top 3 rank with the US card balances. And we're growing our position by launching competitive innovations and new capabilities. And as you see, you've seen a considerable expansion in our branded cards product and offering suite this year. So we re-entered the Premium Rewards segment with the Citi Strate Elite that's had a very strong reception in the market.

    所以我認為您首先要關注的是,我們目前在支付和貸款領域處於領先地位,在美國信用卡餘額排名中排名前三名。我們透過推出競爭性創新和新功能來提升我們的地位。如您所見,今年我們的品牌卡產品和產品套件有了相當大的擴展。因此,我們透過 Citi Strate Elite 重新進入了高級獎勵領域,該產品在市場上受到了熱烈歡迎。

  • We refreshed the value proposition in Costco portfolio. We've begun to roll out the new and very unique, pretty exciting capabilities, thanks to our partnership with American Airlines like the Points Transfer with our branded card portfolio and our own proprietary cards. And as I have hinted, the team will shortly be announcing additional new offerings in particular, as we expand our partnership with American Airlines.

    我們更新了 Costco 產品組合的價值主張。由於我們與美國航空公司的合作,我們已經開始推出新的、非常獨特的、非常令人興奮的功能,例如透過我們的品牌卡組合和我們自己的專有卡進行積分轉移。正如我所暗示的,隨著我們擴大與美國航空的合作,團隊將很快宣布更多新產品。

  • I think you can expect to see more growth in the co-brand space versus the private label space. And we're also investing significantly in AI capabilities to help us better serve our customers, also manage risk better and drive efficiencies. And so I think in all of this area, you're seeing us very much on the front foot building out the ecosystems around our cards capabilities and being at the forefront of a lot of the innovation in AI and the like and applying it for our clients' benefit and for the shareholders' benefit.

    我認為與自有品牌領域相比,聯合品牌領域將會有更大的成長。我們也在人工智慧方面投入了大量資金,以幫助我們更好地服務客戶、更好地管理風險並提高效率。因此,我認為在所有這些領域,您都會看到我們處於領先地位,圍繞我們的卡功能構建生態系統,並處於人工智慧等領域的眾多創新的前沿,並將其應用於我們的客戶和股東的利益。

  • So I'm excited by what we've got coming up. We'll also have the acquisition of the Barclays portfolio in the second quarter next year, which will be a nice boost to the scale of the franchise as well. Lots of good stuff going on.

    所以我對我們即將發生的事情感到很興奮。我們也將在明年第二季收購巴克萊銀行的投資組合,也將大大促進特許經營規模的擴大。有很多好事正在發生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris McGratty, KBW.

    克里斯·麥格拉蒂,KBW。

  • Christopher McGratty - Analyst

    Christopher McGratty - Analyst

  • Building on Ebrahim's question on slide 4 and operating leverage, you touched on wealth, Jane. That was helpful. Can you speak to the sustainability or perhaps source of improvement in operating leverage by segment as you near the 10% to 11% goal for ROE next year?

    簡,根據 Ebrahim 在幻燈片 4 中提出的問題和經營槓桿,你談到了財富。這很有幫助。當您明年的 ROE 接近 10% 至 11% 的目標時,您能否談談各部門經營槓桿的可持續性或改善來源?

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, as we look at it, it's fairly simple in terms of Services, as we say. We continue to grow the fee revenues. We're continuing to grow the volume, acquiring new clients, and existing clients. I'm also, on the market side, you've seen us be very disciplined there, where we're looking at the revenue growth potential that comes particularly in prime. You're seeing us in financing and in securitization that's helping.

    嗯,正如我們所說,就服務而言,它相當簡單。我們持續增加費用收入。我們正在持續擴大業務量,獲取新客戶和現有客戶。另外,在市場方面,您已經看到我們非常自律,我們關注的是收入成長潛力,尤其是在黃金時期。您會看到我們在融資和證券化方面提供協助。

  • Wealth, we talked about. In USPB, it's going to be -- the growth coming partly from the Barclays portfolio as well as from the product innovations and really driving customer engagement as well as new customers as well as bringing new customers in.

    我們談論的是財富。在 USPB,成長部分來自巴克萊投資組合以及產品創新,並真正推動客戶參與、新客戶以及吸引新客戶。

  • And then you've got synergies across the businesses like the Alpha trades we're seeing between markets and banking to way referrals that we were talking about between Wealth and other businesses and the like. And then Mark layed out, I think, very succinctly the efficiencies that we're going to continue to be driving on the operational efficiency side.

    然後你就會在各個業務之間產生協同效應,例如我們在市場和銀行之間看到的 Alpha 交易,以及我們在財富和其他業務之間談論的方式推薦等等。然後,我認為馬克非常簡潔地闡述了我們將在營運效率方面繼續推動的效率。

  • So I think you've got a story of both revenue growth, investment in the businesses, and, as Mark said, continued productivity improvement. And they'll be common across the board.

    所以我認為你的故事既有收入成長,也有業務投資,而且正如馬克所說,還有生產力的持續提高。而且它們將會在各個領域變得很常見。

  • Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Mason - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, I think you can expect, obviously, we are targeting positive operating leverage for the full firm in 2026. You should expect that across most of the segments. If you don't see it in a segment, it's likely because we're leaning in on investments there. But generally speaking, the positive operating leverage for the full year, we should continue to see good momentum there. So we'll give you more color on that at the Investor Day in terms of how we think about it.

    是的,我想你可以期待,顯然,我們的目標是在 2026 年實現整個公司的正營運槓桿。您應該預料到大多數細分市場都會出現這種情況。如果您在某個領域沒有看到它,那很可能是因為我們傾向於在那裡進行投資。但總體而言,全年經營槓桿為正,我們應該繼續看到良好的勢頭。因此,我們將在投資者日向您詳細介紹我們對此的看法。

  • But with all of these businesses driving improved return in 2026, that's likely to be how it plays out. I'd be careful on the quarterly look at that. For example, a markets business, for example, in the fourth quarter, where we see downward pressure on the top line, there could be a quarterly dynamic there.

    但隨著所有這些企業在 2026 年實現回報的提高,情況很可能就會如此。我會謹慎地看待季度情況。例如,在第四季度,我們看到市場業務的營收面臨下行壓力,因此可能會出現季度動態。

  • But again, I'd point you to a really strong year-to-date across every one of these segments, and as the chart points out, consecutive quarters, of positive operating leverage. And I'll just remind you that continued top line momentum we certainly expect, but the need to invest is what's going to drive those improved returns beyond '26.

    但再次強調,我想指出的是,今年迄今為止,每個細分市場都表現強勁,而且正如圖表所示,連續幾個季度都實現了正的經營槓桿。我只是想提醒大家,我們當然期望營收成長動能持續,但投資需求才是推動 26 年以後報酬率提升的動力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的麥克·梅奧。

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

    Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • One more for Jane. How do you balance between celebrating wins and ensuring your team keep the intensity on for all the hard work ahead? I guess I heard a story that people are celebrating when the stock hit $100 a share, which I can understand. You met recent targets, you made progress with the transformation, you have a new team in place. But for those who've been around for a long while, we wouldn't want you to miss the (inaudible) of the trees. The returns are still under 10%, efficiency still over 60%, the stock still has underperformed this decade.

    再給簡一個。您如何在慶祝勝利和確保您的團隊保持高強度以應對未來的所有艱苦工作之間取得平衡?我想我聽過一個故事,當股價達到每股 100 美元時人們都在慶祝,這我可以理解。您實現了近期的目標,轉型取得了進展,並且已經組建了一支新團隊。但對於那些已經在這裡住了很久的人來說,我們不希望你們錯過(聽不清楚)樹木。回報率仍低於 10%,效率仍超過 60%,該股票近十年的表現仍然不佳。

  • So I just thought that sort of celebration may have been premature, but you do want to celebrate the wind. So how are you ensuring that intensity remains at Citi?

    所以我只是覺得這種慶祝可能為時過早,但你確實想慶祝風。那麼,您如何確保花旗銀行維持這種強度?

  • Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jane Fraser - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. It was a milestone moment for us and an important one for everyone as we go down this journey. To me, it's always -- there are way points and there are destinations. The destination is the one that we're excited about. And as I said at the top of the call, there is tremendous upside ahead for us.

    好的。這對我們來說是一個里程碑時刻,對我們踏上這段旅程的每個人來說都是重要的時刻。對我來說,總是有路標和目的地。我們對目的地感到興奮。正如我在電話會議開始時所說的那樣,我們的未來將有巨大的上升空間。

  • And so we're very motivated by the opportunities that are ahead of us. We've got a long list of them by the different businesses. We can't wait to tell that story at the Investor Day by each of the businesses and for the firm overall because all these different elements come together. But there isn't, I think, a single person in our firm that feels that we are declaring victory. We've still got a long way to go.

    因此,我們對眼前的機會充滿信心。我們有一個來自不同企業的長長清單。我們迫不及待地想在投資者日上講述每個企業以及整個公司的故事,因為所有這些不同的元素都融合在一起。但我認為,我們公司裡沒有一個人覺得我們在宣告勝利。我們還有很長的路要走。

  • It's great to have the momentum behind us. It won't be a linear path, but we are really excited to be so laser-focused on the opportunities and the upside that still remains and relentless in our execution against them.

    我們很高興能有這樣的勢頭。這不會是一條直線路徑,但我們真的很高興能夠如此專注於仍然存在的機會和優勢,並堅持不懈地執行它們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions. I'll turn the call over to Jen Landis for closing remarks.

    沒有其他問題了。我會把電話轉給 Jen Landis 做結束語。

  • Jennifer Landis - Head, Investor Relations

    Jennifer Landis - Head, Investor Relations

  • Thank you very much for joining us. Please reach out if you have any follow-up questions. Thank you.

    非常感謝您加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題,請與我們聯絡。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the Citi's third quarter 2025 earnings call. You may now disconnect.

    花旗 2025 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。