Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (BUD) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to AB InBev's full year 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. Hosting the call today from AB InBev are Mr. Michel Doukeris, Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Fernando Tennenbaum, Chief Financial Officer.

歡迎參加百威英博 2024 年全年財報電話會議及網路廣播。今天百威英博電話會議的主持人是執行長 Michel Doukeris 先生和財務長 Fernando Tennenbaum 先生。

To access the slides accompanying today's call, please visit AB InBev's website at www.ab-inbev.com and click on the Investors tab and the Reports and Results Center page. Today's webcast will be available for on-demand playback later today. (Operator Instructions)

如需查看今天電話會議的幻燈片，請造訪百威英博網站 www.ab-inbev.com，點擊「投資者」標籤和「報告和結果中心」頁面。今天的網路直播將於今天稍晚提供點播播放。（操作員指令）

Some of the information provided during the conference call may contain statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements. These expectations are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. It is possible that AB InBev's actual results and financial condition may differ possibly materially from the anticipated results and financial condition indicated in these forward-looking statements.

電話會議期間提供的一些資訊可能包含未來預期和其他前瞻性陳述。這些預期是基於管理階層目前的觀點和假設，涉及已知和未知的風險和不確定性。百威英博的實際業績和財務狀況可能與這些前瞻性陳述中預期的業績和財務狀況有重大差異。

For a discussion of some of the risks and important factors that could affect AB InBev's future results, see risk factors in the company's latest annual report on Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 11, 2024. AB InBev assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information provided during the conference call and shall not be liable for any action taken in reliance upon such information.

有關可能影響百威英博未來業績的一些風險和重要因素的討論，請參閱公司於 2024 年 3 月 11 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表最新年度報告中的風險因素。百威英博不承擔更新或修改電話會議中提供的任何前瞻性資訊的義務，也不對依賴此類資訊採取的任何行動承擔任何責任。

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Mr. Michel Doukeris. Sir, you may begin.

現在我很高興將發言權交給米歇爾·杜克里先生。先生，您可以開始啦。

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to our full year 2024 earnings call. It is a great pleasure to be speaking with you all today. Today, Fernando and I will take you through our operating highlights for the year and provide you with an update on the progress we have made in executing our strategic priorities. After that, we'll be happy to answer your questions.

謝謝大家，歡迎大家參加我們的 2024 年全年收益電話會議。今天能和大家交談我感到非常高興。今天，費爾南多和我將向大家介紹我們今年的營運亮點，並向大家通報我們在執行策略重點方面取得的進展。之後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

Let's start with the key highlights for the year. We made consistent progress across the three pillars of our strategy in 2024. Our global momentum continued delivering all-time high US dollar revenues with growth in 75% of our markets. Our business in the US is building momentum. Our portfolio is reaching an inflection point, and we are increasing investments in our brands to fuel growth. BEES marketplace continued to accelerate and delivered $2.5 billion in GMV this year, a 57% increase versus last year. EBITDA grew at the top end of our outlook for the year, reaching nearly $21 billion with margin expansion across all five of our operating regions.

讓我們先來回顧一下今年的主要亮點。2024年，我們在策略的三大支柱上取得了持續進展。我們的全球發展勢頭持續良好，75% 的市場實現了美元收入的歷史新高。我們在美國的業務正在蓬勃發展。我們的產品組合正在達到一個轉折點，我們正在增加對品牌的投資以促進成長。BEES 市場持續加速發展，今年的 GMV 達到 25 億美元，比去年成長了 57%。EBITDA 成長達到了我們今年預期的最高水平，達到近 210 億美元，我們所有五個營運地區的利潤率均有所擴大。

The ongoing optimization of our business drove a 15% increase in the underlying US dollar EPS as well as a step change in our free cash flow generation, which increased by $2.5 billion versus last year. We also delivered an important milestone in our deleveraging journey with our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio reaching 2.89 times, below 3 times for the first time since 2015. With this progress, we have increased flexibility in our capital allocation choices. The Board has proposed a full year dividend of EUR1 per share, a 22% increase versus last year.

我們業務的持續優化推動了基礎美元每股收益成長了 15%，同時也推動了我們的自由現金流產生量發生了重大變化，與去年相比增加了 25 億美元。我們也在去槓桿進程中實現了一個重要里程碑，淨負債與 EBITDA 比率達到 2.89 倍，自 2015 年以來首次低於 3 倍。隨著這一進展，我們在資本配置選擇方面更加靈活。董事會提議全年股息每股 1 歐元，較去年增加 22%。

Now, turning to our operating performance. Total revenue grew by 2.7% this year with our revenue management choices and ongoing premiumization driving revenue per hectoliter growth of 4.3% EBITDA increased by 10.1% in the fourth quarter and by 8.2% in the full year, increasing by $1 billion versus 2023. Our overall volume performance in 2024 was, however, constrained by the unusually soft consumer environment in both China and Argentina, which drove a total volume decline of 1.4%. While the performance in these two markets this year does not reflect our full potential, we remain confident in the long-term growth opportunity and are investing to rebuild momentum.

現在來談談我們的經營業績。今年總收入成長了 2.7%，得益於我們的收入管理選擇和持續的高端化，每百升收入增長了 4.3%，EBITDA 在第四季度增長了 10.1%，全年增長了 8.2%，與 2023 年相比增加了 10 億美元。然而，我們 2024 年的整體銷售表現受到中國和阿根廷異常疲軟的消費環境的限制，導致總銷售量下降 1.4%。雖然今年這兩個市場的表現並未反映出我們的全部潛力，但我們對長期成長機會仍然充滿信心，並正在投資以重建發展勢頭。

Outside of these two countries, the Beer category globally remains vibrant, and we are winning with consumers across our footprint. Volumes grew in the majority of our markets. We estimate we gained or maintained market share in two-thirds of them, and our volumes increased by 0.9% in all other markets.

除這兩個國家之外，全球啤酒市場依然充滿活力，我們在整個業務範圍內贏得了消費者的青睞。我們大多數市場的銷量都有所成長。我們估計，我們在其中三分之二的市場中獲得或維持了市場份額，而在所有其他市場，我們的銷量都成長了 0.9%。

Turning to our top line performance. Our revenues reached a new all-time high of $59.8 billion with organic growth more than offsetting translational FX headwinds. Net revenue per hectoliter growth improved sequentially throughout the year. Our financial performance was broad-based with revenue increase in 75% of our markets and EBITDA growth in four of our five operating regions.

談談我們的營收表現。我們的營收達到了 598 億美元的歷史新高，有機成長足以抵銷外匯匯率帶來的不利影響。每百升淨收入全年成長持續改善。我們的財務表現表現廣泛，75% 的市場收入實現成長，五個營運區域中有四個的 EBITDA 成長。

Now, I'll take a few minutes to walk you through the operational highlights for the year from our key regions, starting with North America. In the US, our business is building momentum. Our portfolio is reaching an inflection point, and we are increasing investments in our brands to fuel growth. Our STR volumes grew in the fourth quarter, and we gained volume share in the industry, driven by Michelob Ultra and Busch Light, which were the top two volume share gainers in the industry. The beer industry overall remained resilient in 2024, improving in both volume and revenue trends sequentially since the second quarter and gained share of total alcohol by volume.

現在，我將花幾分鐘時間向您介紹我們主要地區（從北美開始）今年的營運亮點。在美國，我們的業務正在蓬勃發展。我們的產品組合正在達到一個轉折點，我們正在增加對品牌的投資以促進成長。我們的 STR 銷量在第四季度實現增長，我們的行業銷量份額也隨之增加，這主要得益於 Michelob Ultra 和 Busch Light，這兩款啤酒是行業銷量份額增幅最大的兩種啤酒。2024 年，啤酒行業整體保持了彈性，自第二季度以來，銷量和收入趨勢均連續改善，並且按銷量計算的酒精總量份額有所增加。

Now, moving to Middle Americas. In Mexico, our momentum continued as we gained share of industry and delivered record high volumes for the year. In Colombia, we delivered record high volumes with our portfolio continue to gain share of total alcohol. In South America, our business in Brazil delivered total volume growth of 1.5% with double-digit bottom line growth.

現在，轉向中美洲。在墨西哥，我們繼續保持良好勢頭，獲得了行業份額並創下了年度銷量新高。在哥倫比亞，我們的銷售量創下了歷史新高，我們的產品組合在酒精飲料總份額中的比例持續上升。在南美，我們在巴西的業務總銷量成長了 1.5%，利潤實現了兩位數的成長。

Our beer portfolio is estimated to have outperformed the industry with market share gains driven by our premium and super premium brands. In Europe, EBITDA increased by mid-teens through a combination of top line growth and continued margin recovery. Our volumes grew slightly, outperforming the industry in five of our six key markets, led by Corona and Stella Artois. In South Africa, our momentum continued with volumes growing by mid-single digits, gaining share of both beer and Beyond Beer.

據估計，我們的啤酒產品組合表現優於行業，在我們的高檔和超高檔品牌的推動下，市場份額有所增長。在歐洲，透過營業收入成長和利潤率持續回升，EBITDA 實現了中等程度的成長。我們的銷售量略有成長，在六個主要市場中的五個市場（以 Corona 和 Stella Artois 為首）表現優於行業。在南非，我們的發展勢頭持續良好，銷量實現了中等個位數增長，啤酒和 Beyond 啤酒的份額均有所增長。

In APAC, in China, the soft consumer environment impacted the overall beer industry and particularly the on-premise channel, which disproportionately impacted our business. We underperformed the industry, and we know our business in China has far more potential than we delivered in 2024. We remain confident in the growth opportunities for beer and continue to invest for the long term. The close of 2024 also marks three years since we introduced our three-pillar strategy and our medium-term growth outlook. And I would like to take a few minutes to reflect on the progress we have made in executing our strategy.

在亞太地區，在中國，疲軟的消費環境影響了整個啤酒產業，尤其是店內通路，這對我們的業務造成了嚴重的影響。我們的表現落後於產業，我們知道我們在中國的業務潛力遠遠超過我們在 2024 年實現的水平。我們對啤酒的成長機會仍然充滿信心，並將繼續進行長期投資。2024 年即將結束，也是我們推出三大支柱策略與中期成長展望三週年。我想花幾分鐘來回顧我們在執行策略方面所取得的進展。

Let's start with our perspective on the overall Beer category. The category and our brands are a passion point for consumers. We believe beer has a long runway for future volume growth and premiumization across our footprint, supported by favorable demographics, economic growth and significant opportunities to increase category participation. In 2024, according to IWSR, the beer and Beyond Beer category continued to gain share of total alcohol by volume globally and has now gained more than 200 basis points since 2021. And looking ahead, beer is expected to grow volumes globally and continue to gain share of total alcohol.

讓我們從對整個啤酒類別的看法開始。這個類別和我們的品牌是消費者關注的焦點。我們相信，在有利的人口結構、經濟成長和增加品類參與度的重大機會的支持下，啤酒在未來的銷售成長和高端化方面具有廣闊的發展空間。根據 IWSR 的數據，2024 年，啤酒和超越啤酒類別在全球酒精總銷量中的份額繼續增長，自 2021 年以來已增長了 200 多個基點。展望未來，全球啤酒產量預計將成長，並繼續佔據酒精飲料總產量的份額。

Our diversified geographic footprint and leadership positions across developing, emerging and developing markets has us best positioned to capture this growth. Developing markets represent 55% of our volume, are mostly comprised of countries where we have strong leadership positions and are expected to account for 34% of the category volume growth over the next five years. This cluster has been a key growth engine for our business over the last three years with record high volumes in key markets such as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and South Africa and double-digit top and bottom line growth in US dollars. Emerging markets represent only 10% of our volumes, but are expected to drive nearly 50% of the category volume growth.

我們的多元化地理覆蓋和遍布發展中市場、新興市場和發展中市場的領導地位使我們處於最有利的位置來抓住這一成長機會。發展中市場占我們銷售量的 55%，主要由我們擁有強大領導地位的國家組成，預計未來五年將佔該類別銷售成長的 34%。過去三年來，該集群一直是我們業務的主要成長引擎，在巴西、墨西哥、哥倫比亞和南非等主要市場的銷售量創下了歷史新高，以美元計算，營收和利潤均實現了兩位數的成長。新興市場僅占我們銷售的 10%，但預計將推動近 50% 的品類銷售成長。

We have leadership positions across Africa and lead the fast-growing premium and super premium segments in India. Our volumes across this cluster have grown by 10% over the last three years with significant opportunities to increase category participation as these economies develop. Developed markets represent 24% of our volume with leadership positions across key markets in Europe, the US, Canada, and South Korea and are expected to account for 14% of the category volume growth.

我們在整個非洲都佔據領導地位，並引領印度快速成長的高端和超高端市場。過去三年來，我們在該領域的銷量成長了 10%，隨著這些經濟體的發展，我們有巨大的機會增加品類參與度。已開發市場占我們銷量的 24%，在歐洲、美國、加拿大和韓國等主要市場佔據領導地位，預計將佔該類別銷量成長的 14%。

In the US, our portfolio is at an inflection point. In Europe, our premium and super premium portfolio now make up 57% of our revenue and EBITDA increased by double digits in 2024. And in South Korea, our revenue increased by low teens in 2024 with our market share reaching the highest level in the last 10 years. And in China, while 2024 has been a challenging year for both the industry and our business, we remain confident that the long-term premiumization trend in the industry is a compelling profitable growth opportunity.

在美國，我們的投資組合正處於轉捩點。在歐洲，我們的高階和超高階產品組合目前占我們營收的 57%，EBITDA 在 2024 年實現了兩位數成長。在韓國，我們的營收在 2024 年實現了低幅度成長，市佔率達到了過去 10 年來的最高水準。在中國，雖然 2024 年對於產業和我們的業務來說都是充滿挑戰的一年，但我們仍然相信，產業的長期高端化趨勢是一個引人注目的獲利成長機會。

We are the leaders in the premium and super premium segment and are investing in our portfolio, innovation, and geographic expansion to regain our momentum. We have evolved our portfolio management approach to focus our investments in our mega brands and drive efficient profitable growth.

我們是高端和超高端領域的領導者，我們正在投資我們的產品組合、創新和地理擴張，以重獲發展勢頭。我們已經改進了我們的投資組合管理方法，將投資重點放在我們的大品牌上，並推動高效的獲利成長。

Our mega brands have increased revenue by nearly 40% since 2021 and now represent 57% of our total business. In 2024, we invested $7.2 billion in sales and marketing, and averaged more than $7 billion per year since 2021. Our investments are more effective than ever as we have concentrated behind mega brands and mega platforms and have leveraged the data and our digital platforms to drive efficiency.

自 2021 年以來，我們的超級品牌收入成長了近 40%，現在占我們總業務的 57%。2024年，我們在銷售和行銷方面投資了72億美元，自2021年起，平均每年投資超過70億美元。由於我們集中精力於大型品牌和大型平台，並利用數據和數位平台來提高效率，因此我們的投資比以往任何時候都更有效。

Led by our global brands, we are the leader in the premium beer segment globally and see a long runway for the category to continue to premiumize. The premium beer segment is forecast to grow volumes across all geographic clusters and at more than double the rate of the category overall.

在我們全球品牌的帶領下，我們已成為全球高端啤酒領域的領導者，並且看到該類別繼續高端化的道路還很長。預計高檔啤酒的銷售量將在所有地理區域內成長，且成長速度將是整體啤酒類別的兩倍以上。

Within premium, the Corona brand continues to grow from strength to strength in leading the growth of our portfolio globally. In 2025, we'll be celebrating 100 years since its original launch. Since 2018, the volumes of Corona have nearly doubled. And in 2024, volumes increased by 9.4% in markets outside of Mexico. In its home market of Mexico, Corona is the number one brand in the industry and volumes grew by mid-single digits. The quality, brand power and consumer preference for Corona has earned the right for a premium price point. Corona sells on average at 20% premium to the nearest competitor.

在高端產品領域，Corona品牌不斷發展壯大，引領著我們全球產品組合的成長。2025 年，我們將慶祝其首次推出 100 週年。自 2018 年以來，Corona 啤酒的銷量幾乎翻了一番。到 2024 年，墨西哥以外市場的銷售量將成長 9.4%。在墨西哥本土市場，Corona 是業界第一大品牌，銷售成長率達到中等個位數。Corona 的品質、品牌影響力和消費者偏好為其贏得了高價位的權利。Corona 的售價平均比最接近的競爭對手高出 20%。

In recognition of this past performance and its future potential, Corona was named the most valuable beer brand in the world in 2024. We continue to focus on innovating to develop the category and expand occasions to meet consumer needs. Our balanced choice portfolio includes options for consumers seeking low carb, low calories, sugar-free, gluten-free and non-alcohol alternatives. Our brands across these consumer trends are growing ahead of the overall beer category and are becoming a meaningful part of our overall business, now representing approximately 10% of our beer revenue.

為了表彰其過去的表現和未來的潛力，科羅納被評為2024年全球最有價值的啤酒品牌。我們將繼續致力於創新，以開發產品類別並擴大場合以滿足消費者的需求。我們均衡的選擇組合包括為尋求低碳水化合物、低熱量、無糖、無麩質和無酒精替代品的消費者提供的選項。在這些消費趨勢中，我們的品牌成長速度領先於整個啤酒類別，並成為我們整體業務的重要組成部分，目前約占我們啤酒收入的 10%。

Looking specifically at non-alcohol beer, our portfolio momentum continued to accelerate, led by the triple-digit growth of Corona Cero, we estimate we gained share globally in 2024. While non-alcohol beer is currently a relatively small portion of our global beer volume, we believe it is a key opportunity to develop new beer consumption occasions, increase category participation and drive incremental volume growth. In addition to beer, we have been developing our portfolio of Beyond Beer brands to meet consumer needs and increase our total addressable market. The strength of our brands and our production and route-to-market capabilities provides us a strong right to win in this segment.

具體來看，從無酒精啤酒來看，我們的產品組合動能持續加速，在 Corona Cero 三位數成長的帶動下，我們預計 2024 年我們的全球份額將有所增加。雖然目前無酒精啤酒僅占我們全球啤酒銷售的一小部分，但我們認為它是開發新的啤酒消費場合、增加品類參與度和推動銷售增量的關鍵機會。除了啤酒之外，我們也一直在開發超越啤酒品牌組合，以滿足消費者的需求並擴大我們的整體目標市場。我們的品牌實力以及我們的生產和市場通路能力為我們在這一領域贏得勝利提供了強大的理由。

In South Africa, Brutal Fruit and Flying Fish are two of the leading flavored malt beverages in the country, which have been expanded across Africa over the last couple of years. And in the US, Cutwater is the number one canned cocktail brand in the country and Nütrl is the number two vodka seltzer brand. The combined revenue of our focused spirit-based RTD and flavored malt beverage brands have increased by approximately 20% since 2021, and the category is forecast to grow volumes at double the rate of the overall beer category.

在南非，Brutal Fruit 和 Flying Fish 是全國兩種主要的口味麥芽飲料，過去幾年已在整個非洲推廣。在美國，Cutwater 是全國排名第一的罐裝雞尾酒品牌，而 Nütrl 是排名第二的伏特加蘇打水品牌。我們專注的烈酒類 RTD 和調味麥芽飲料品牌的總收入自 2021 年以來增長了約 20%，預計該類別的銷量增長速度將是整體啤酒類別的兩倍。

Now, let's turn to our second strategic pillar, digitize and monetize our ecosystem. In 2024, BEES captured $49 billion in gross merchandising value, a 19% increase versus last year with 124 million orders transacted through the platform. BEES GMV has now more than doubled versus 2021 with our percentage of revenue transacted through digital channels increasing from around 50% to 75%. BEES marketplace continued to accelerate and delivered $2.5 billion in GMV this year, a 57% increase versus last year. And in D2C, our digital platforms are enabling a one-to-one connection with our consumers and the development of new consumption occasions. We have expanded the availability of our digital platforms to 21 markets with revenue reaching $560 million.

現在，讓我們轉向第二個策略支柱，即數位化和貨幣化我們的生態系統。2024 年，BEES 的商品交易總額達到 490 億美元，較去年成長 19%，透過該平台交易的訂單量達到 1.24 億筆。與 2021 年相比，BEES GMV 現在成長了一倍多，我們透過數位管道交易的收入百分比從約 50% 增加到 75%。BEES 市場持續加速發展，今年的 GMV 達到 25 億美元，比去年成長了 57%。在D2C方面，我們的數位平台實現了與消費者一對一的聯繫，並開發了新的消費場合。我們已將數位平台的覆蓋範圍擴展到 21 個市場，收入達到 5.6 億美元。

With that, I would like to hand it over to Fernando to discuss the third pillar of our strategy, optimize our business.

接下來，我想把主題交給費南多，討論我們策略的第三大支柱，也就是優化我們的業務。

Thank you, Michel. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone. For the next few minutes, I want to take you through a few tangible examples of what we mean by optimizing our business and the financial results we are driving. In 2024, we made progress on four key areas of focus: improving margins; compounding US dollar EPS growth; growing our free cash flow; and making disciplined capital allocation choices. Our EBITDA margin improved by 179 basis points this year, with margin expansion across all five of our operating regions. We know that each year will be different, but are confident that the combination of our leadership advantages, disciplined revenue management, continued premiumization and efficient operating model create an opportunity for further margin expansion over time.

謝謝你，米歇爾。大家早安，下午好。在接下來的幾分鐘裡，我想向大家介紹幾個具體的例子，說明我們所說的優化業務和我們正在推動的財務成果。2024年，我們在四個重點領域取得了進展：提高利潤率；複合美元每股收益成長；增加我們的自由現金流；並做出嚴謹的資本配置選擇。今年，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 179 個基點，我們所有五個營運地區的利潤率均有所擴大。我們知道每年的情況都會有所不同，但我們有信心，我們的領導優勢、嚴格的收入管理、持續的高端化和高效的營運模式將創造機會，隨著時間的推移進一步擴大利潤率。

Moving on to EPS. This year, we delivered underlying profit growth of $900 million. Underlying EPS was $3.53 per share, a 15.4% increase versus last year and a 7% CAGR since 2021. Organic EBITDA growth accounted for an $0.81 per share increase this year with a $0.26 per share headwind from translational FX. As we continue to optimize our business, improvements in below EBITDA items drove the balance of our EPS growth such as lower net interest expense from active net debt management and continued deleveraging as well as lower cost of hedging and reduced FX losses.

繼續討論 EPS。今年，我們實現了9億美元的基礎利潤成長。基本每股收益為 3.53 美元，較去年增長 15.4%，自 2021 年以來複合年增長率為 7%。今年有機 EBITDA 成長導致每股收益增加 0.81 美元，而平移外匯帶來的阻力為每股 0.26 美元。隨著我們不斷優化業務，EBITDA以下項目的改善推動了我們的每股收益成長平衡，例如積極的淨債務管理、持續的去槓桿化帶來的淨利息支出降低、對沖成本降低和外匯損失減少。

Next, let's take a look at free cash flow through a combination of revenue growth and margin expansion, reducing our net interest expense through deleveraging, optimizing our net working capital and improving the efficiency of our CapEx through disciplined resource allocation, we increased our free cash flow by $2.5 billion to reach $11.3 billion in 2024. With this increase in cash generation, we continue to make progress on our deleveraging journey and delivered an important milestone for our business. Net debt-to-EBITDA reached 2.89 times, below 3 times for the first time since 2015.

接下來，讓我們透過收入成長和利潤率擴大的結合來看看自由現金流，透過去槓桿減少我們的淨利息支出，優化我們的淨營運資本，並透過嚴格的資源配置提高我們的資本支出效率，我們的自由現金流增加了 25 億美元，到 2024 年達到 113 億美元。隨著現金產生的增加，我們在前往槓桿的道路上繼續取得進展，為我們的業務樹立了一個重要的里程碑。淨債務與EBITDA比率達到2.89倍，自2015年以來首次低於3倍。

In 2024, we continue to strengthen our debt maturity profile while maintaining our weighted average coupon. Our bond portfolio remains well distributed with no relevant medium-term refinancing needs. We have approximately USD3 billion worth of bonds maturing through 2026, a weighted average maturity of 13 years and no financial covenants. As we continue to make progress on our deleveraging, we have increased flexibility in our capital allocation choices. The Board has proposed a full year dividend of EUR1 per share, a 22% increase versus last year with the ambition to continue a progressive dividend over time. Additionally, we have completed approximately $750 million of our $2 billion share buyback program announced last year.

2024 年，我們將持續加強債務到期狀況，同時維持加權平均票面利率。我們的債券投資組合分佈良好，沒有相關的中期再融資需求。我們有價值約 30 億美元的債券將於 2026 年到期，加權平均期限為 13 年，沒有財務契約。隨著我們在去槓桿方面不斷取得進展，我們的資本配置選擇也更加靈活。董事會提議全年派發每股 1 歐元的股息，較去年增加 22%，並計劃隨著時間的推移繼續派發漸進式股息。此外，我們已完成去年宣布的 20 億美元股票回購計畫中的約 7.5 億美元。

As we look ahead to 2025, we expect EBITDA to grow between 4% and 8% on an organic basis, in line with our medium-term outlook. In terms of phasing of growth in the year, it is worthwhile reminding that due to technical factors such as fewer selling days, the timing of Easter and shipment phasing comparables in the US and China, the first quarter will have a high comparison base. As we continue to invest to execute our strategy while optimizing our resource allocation, we expect net CapEx to be between $3.5 billion and $4 billion, and we expect our normalized effective tax rate to be between 26% to 28%.

展望 2025 年，我們預期 EBITDA 將有機成長 4% 至 8%，與我們的中期展望一致。就年內成長階段而言，值得提醒的是，由於銷售天數減少、復活節時間以及美國和中國的出貨階段可比性等技術因素，第一季的比較基數將較高。隨著我們繼續投資執行我們的策略並優化我們的資源配置，我們預計淨資本支出將在 35 億美元至 40 億美元之間，我們預計我們的標準化有效稅率將在 26% 至 28% 之間。

With that, I would like to hand it back to Michel for some final comments before we start our Q&A session.

說完這些，在我們開始問答環節之前，我想將話題交還給 Michel，請他發表一些最後的評論。

Thanks, Fernando. Before opening for Q&A, I would like to take a moment to recap on 2024 and look ahead at the opportunities our brands have to activate the category in 2025. Driven by the consistent execution of our strategy, we delivered high-quality financial results in 2024. EBITDA grew at the top end of our outlook. Underlying EPS increased by 15% in US dollars, and our free cash flow grew by $2.5 billion. Our geographic footprint, leadership positions, and portfolio of mega brands position us well to capture future category growth. With leverage below 3 times, we have increased capital allocation flexibility. While the operating environment has been dynamic over the last few years, we are encouraged by the consistent performance of our business.

謝謝，費爾南多。在開始問答環節之前，我想花點時間回顧一下 2024 年，並展望我們的品牌在 2025 年激活該類別的機會。在持續執行策略的推動下，我們在 2024 年取得了高品質的財務表現。EBITDA 成長達到了我們預期的最高水準。以美元計算，基本每股盈餘成長了 15%，我們的自由現金流成長了 25 億美元。我們的地理覆蓋範圍、領導地位以及大型品牌組合使我們能夠抓住未來的品類成長機會。槓桿率低於3倍，提高了資本配置的彈性。雖然過去幾年的經營環境不斷變化，但我們業務的穩定表現仍令我們感到鼓舞。

EBITDA has grown within or above our medium-term growth outlook in every quarter over the last three years, and we are confident in our ability to deliver in 2025. Looking ahead, we are uniquely positioned to activate the category. The combination of our mega brands with the key global platforms that consumers love and that bring people together is a powerful opportunity to lead and grow the category.

在過去三年中，每季的 EBITDA 都達到或超越了我們的中期成長預期，我們有信心在 2025 年實現這一目標。展望未來，我們擁有獨特的優勢來啟動該類別。我們的大型品牌與消費者喜愛、將人們聚集在一起的關鍵全球平台的結合，為引領和發展該類別提供了強大的機會。

From the NBA to the FIFA Club World Cup to Wimbledon and music platforms like Tomorrowland and Lollapalooza, we will be focused on connecting with consumers and bringing to life our purpose of creating a future with more cheers.

從 NBA 到國際足總俱樂部世界杯，再到溫布頓網球公開賽以及 Tomorrowland 和 Lollapalooza 等音樂平台，我們將專注於與消費者建立聯繫，並實現我們創造更多歡呼未來的目標。

With that, I will hand it back to the operator for the Q&A.

說完這些，我將把它交還給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Edward Mundy, Jefferies.

（操作員指示） 愛德華·芒迪（Edward Mundy），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

Two questions, please. So there's been a huge step change in free cash flow. I was hoping to try and sort of tease out the types of things that you might be able to consider given this increased flexibility that previously might not have been on the table. I think, Michel, you laid out very clearly on Slide 16 and 17 that you've got a best-in-class footprint and strong brand portfolio, so that argues against the need to make major acquisitions. Is this really around getting the balance between deleveraging and accelerating returns to shareholders? That's the first question.

請問兩個問題。因此，自由現金流發生了巨大的變化。我希望嘗試並梳理出在這種更大的靈活性下您可能會考慮的事情類型，而這些事情以前可能是不會被考慮的。米歇爾，我認為，你在第 16 和 17 張投影片上非常清楚地表明，你擁有一流的足跡和強大的品牌組合，因此，這就不需要進行大規模收購了。這真的是為了在去槓桿和加速股東回報之間取得平衡嗎？這是第一個問題。

And then the second question is on China. You've appointed someone internal with a very strong commercial and supply chain background. Could you help us think about the balance between both investing for growth and optimizing that footprint?

第二個問題是關於中國的。您任命了一位具有非常強大的商業和供應鏈背景的內部人士。您能否幫助我們思考投資成長與優化足跡之間的平衡？

Ed, this is Fernando here. Let me take the first question. So the first question is on capital allocation. It's worth reminding that the objective of our capital allocation policy is value creation. And it's kind of -- the framework is unchanged, and we remain disciplined in our choices. So priority number one has always been investing in the organic growth of our business. We have a very good business with no shortage of opportunities to invest. And if you look from 2021 to 2024, we invested like around $55 billion across CapEx and S&M to drive organic growth.

艾德，這是費南多。讓我回答第一個問題。所以第一個問題是關於資本配置。值得提醒的是，我們的資本配置政策的目標是創造價值。而且，框架沒有改變，我們在選擇上依然保持紀律。因此，首要任務一直是投資我們業務的有機成長。我們的業務非常好，而且不缺乏投資機會。如果從 2021 年到 2024 年看，我們在資本支出和 S&M 方面投資了約 550 億美元來推動有機成長。

With the excess cash that we generate, then we need to solve for maximizing value creation. And we always dynamic balance between deleveraging, return of capital to shareholders and selective M&A. If you look at 2024, in the organic growth of our business, we invested in S&M $7.2 billion and in CapEx, $3.7 billion. So when you add all of those, almost $11 billion.

利用我們產生的多餘現金，我們需要解決如何最大化創造價值的問題。我們始終在去槓桿、向股東返還資本和選擇性併購之間保持動態平衡。如果你展望 2024 年，在我們業務的有機成長中，我們在 S&M 上的投資為 72 億美元，在資本支出上的投資為 37 億美元。所以當你把這些全部加起來的時候，總額就接近 110 億美元。

On the net debt side, we reduced $6.9 billion, so almost $7 billion of net debt reduction. And we were able to do all that while announcing a share buyback of $2 billion and also increasing dividend by 22% to EUR1. With leverage now below 3 times, it's fair to say that we have increased flexibility in our capital allocation choices to continue to invest for growth and return capital to our shareholders.

在淨債務方面，我們減少了 69 億美元，因此淨債務減少了近 70 億美元。我們在完成所有這些工作的同時，也宣布回購 20 億美元股票，並將股息提高 22% 至 1 歐元。現在槓桿率低於 3 倍，可以說我們在資本配置選擇上更靈活，可以繼續投資於成長並向股東返還資本。

On the second question to you, Michel.

關於你的第二個問題，米歇爾。

Ed, I will just complement here on what Fernando described on the capital allocation. And then if you can please confirm that your second question was in China. I think that I heard that, but just please confirm to me.

艾德，我只想在這裡補充一下費南多對資本配置的描述。然後，請您確認您的第二個問題是在中國。我想我聽到了，但請向我確認一下。

Yes. It's on China.

是的。是在中國。

So Okay. Thank you. On the cash flow generation and the strategy that we have today. So we've been articulating this to you over time that the main priority is organic growth. And we believe that based on the scale that we have today, the footprint that we have today, the compounding effect of this organic growth is a massive value creation opportunity. And of course, as we materialize and execute this strategy, generate the cash, reduce leverage. As Fernando said, we gain financial flexibility so we can really allocate capital in different ways. So priority number one is organic growth. But with the compounding effect, we gain growing financial flexibility.

好的。謝謝。關於我們今天的現金流產生和策略。因此，我們一直在向您闡明這一點，首要任務是有機成長。我們相信，基於我們今天的規模和足跡，這種有機成長的複合效應將帶來巨大的價值創造機會。當然，當我們實現並執行這項策略時，就會產生現金，減少槓桿。正如費爾南多所說，我們獲得了財務靈活性，因此我們可以真正以不同的方式分配資本。因此，首要任務是有機成長。但隨著複合效應的產生，我們的財務彈性逐漸增強。

In China, I think that there is a couple of things. First, last year, last two years, very soft consumer environment. We have seen some shifts in channels, we see geographically the Eastern part of China having more difficult than the Western part of China and Central China. Nevertheless, we think that our business there has much more potential than what we have delivered in the last two years.

在中國，我認為有幾件事。首先，去年、過去兩年，消費環境非常疲軟。我們已經看到渠道的一些轉變，從地理位置來看，我們發現中國東部比西部和中部地區更困難。儘管如此，我們認為我們在那裡的業務比過去兩年所實現的潛力要大得多。

We have a plan in place since the end of last year with increased investments, more focus on our mega brands, huge execution now during Chinese New Year, where we saw Budweiser in the big stage, front and center on everything that we are doing. We have been introducing innovation in the market with Harbin Zero, and we want to increase the level of execution so we can harness the opportunities that we have there and reignite the business for growth once now we expect this year the comps in China to sequentially improve as we get through the year. Thanks for the questions.

我們從去年年底就制定了一項計劃，增加了投資，更加關注我們的大品牌，現在農曆新年期間執行力度很大，我們看到百威站在大舞台上，在我們所做的一切事情中，百威處於中心位置。我們一直透過哈爾濱零點向市場推出創新，並且我們希望提高執行水平，這樣我們就可以利用現有的機遇，重新點燃業務增長，我們預計今年中國市場的同店銷售額將在今年內逐步改善。感謝您的提問。

Simon Hales, Citi.

花旗銀行的西蒙‧黑爾斯 (Simon Hales) 。

Michel, Fernando. So a couple for me, please. Can we start on the US and the margin delivery, particularly in Q4? It's clearly a little bit lower, the expansion we saw there than we've seen in the prior couple of quarters. I think, Michel, you referenced in your presentation the investment we've seen going into the business. I think we've also seen probably higher COGS and some of the aluminum tariffs kicked in. How should we think about sort of the outlook for margins in the US as we head into 2025 and the trade-off perhaps between further productivity savings versus the investment into the business and those ongoing COGS pressures?

米歇爾，費爾南多。所以請給我幾張。我們可以開始討論美國和保證金交付問題嗎，特別是第四季？我們看到的擴張幅度顯然比前幾季低。米歇爾，我認為您在演講中提到了我們所看到的對該業務的投資。我認為，我們可能也看到了更高的銷貨成本和部分鋁關稅的實施。當我們邁入 2025 年時，我們應該如何看待美國的利潤前景，以及進一步提高生產力與對業務的投資和持續的 COGS 壓力之間的權衡？

And then secondly, maybe just a quick one for you, Fernando, around the number of the factors you highlighted as we head into Q1, which will be weighing a little bit on volume performance. Can you share a little bit more detail perhaps on how we should think about the scale of those combined factors on volumes in Q1, please?

其次，費南多，我只想快速問您一個問題，圍繞我們進入第一季時您強調的幾個因素，這些因素將對銷售表現產生一定影響。您能否詳細分享我們應該如何看待這些綜合因素對第一季銷售的影響？

Simon, thanks for the question. I will take on the US first. I think that each quarter, of course, is unique and it is going to be different. The important thing here is in the US, we are gaining momentum. Our portfolio now much healthier and accelerating, reaching an inflection point, I would say, because with the number one and number two share volume brands in the market growing as Michelob Ultra is growing and Busch Light, we start seeing this market share growing every week and every month.

西蒙，謝謝你的提問。我將首先對抗美國。我認為每季都是獨一無二的，都會有所不同。重要的是，在美國，我們正在獲得發展動力。我想說，我們的產品組合現在更加健康和快速發展，已經到達了一個轉折點，因為隨著市場上排名第一和第二的品牌份額不斷增長，例如 Michelob Ultra 和 Busch Light，我們開始看到這個市場份額每週、每月都在增長。

Margins are recovering, and we continue to work on productivity. But the main priority for us now is to invest to make sure that this portfolio continues to accelerate. And we are doing this, of course, as we always do in a very efficient way. We continue to work very hard on our productivity across all lines and generate efficiencies in the business. But what we really are glad to see is the commercial momentum and the share momentum that the portfolio has in the US now.

利潤率正在恢復，我們繼續努力提高生產力。但我們現在的首要任務是進行投資，以確保該投資組合繼續加速成長。當然，我們一如既往地以非常有效率的方式進行這項工作。我們將繼續努力提高各條生產線的生產力並提高業務效率。但我們真正高興看到的是該投資組合目前在美國擁有的商業動能和股票動能。

And Simon, on your question, maybe trying to give some more color here. The first one is that 2024 was a leap year. So it means one extra selling day. If you just do a simple extrapolation, that's a 1% impact. The second one is Easter phasing. So Easter is going to be three weeks later in 2025. So it's going to be April 20. So the inventory build shifting from March to April.

西蒙，關於你的問題，也許我試著在這裡給出更多的解釋。第一個是2024年是閏年。所以這意味著額外一天的銷售時間。如果你做一個簡單的推斷，那影響就是 1%。第二個是復活節分階段。因此 2025 年的復活節將會延後三週。所以今天是 4 月 20 日。因此庫存增加從三月轉移到四月。

Then on the US, we have the STWs versus STRs. Remember that last year, we built contingent inventory ahead of labor negotiations. So this will have somewhat of an impact. And China, we mentioned China as well is a tough comp on a relative basis because volumes declined 6.2% in the first Q of '24, and they trended more negative throughout the year.

然後在美國，我們有 STW 與 STR。請記住，去年我們在勞資談判之前建立了應急庫存。所以這會產生一定的影響。至於中國，我們提到中國也是一個相對困難的競爭對手，因為 24 年第一季的銷售量下降了 6.2%，而且全年的趨勢更加負面。

So this is kind of try to give some color and hopefully, you can be able to quantify a little bit more of the higher base in Q1.

因此，這試圖給出一些說明，希望您能夠量化第一季的更多較高基數。

James Edwardes Jones, RBC.

詹姆斯·愛德華茲·瓊斯（James Edwardes Jones），RBC。

I guess following on from Simon's question, you're talking assertively about investing in the US and behind mega brands, but the ratio of marketing and selling costs as a percentage of sales fell last year. Will it increase in future years? And how is it affected, sorry, by your increasing digital capabilities?

我想，繼續回答西蒙的問題，您自信地談到了在美國和大品牌背後的投資，但去年行銷和銷售成本佔銷售額的比例下降了。未來幾年它會增加嗎？抱歉，這是否受到你們日益增強的數位能力的影響？

And secondly, can you just say a word about the raw material outlook and COGS? I know you don't guide on it specifically, but there has, I think, been quite a lot of concern, particularly around currency depreciation in Latin America and the effect that, that might have.

其次，您能否簡單談談原料前景和銷貨成本？我知道您沒有對此進行具體指導，但我認為人們對此有相當多的擔憂，特別是圍繞拉丁美洲的貨幣貶值及其可能產生的影響。

James, Michel here. Thanks for the question. We've been talking about this ratio and absolute dollars and efficiency of the dollars that we deploy for quite a while. And I always go back to the point that we look at ratios, but we are not guided by ratios. And as we look at the decisions that we are making as we grow our business and we optimize the business, it's very important always to highlight that we made very important portfolio decisions with this idea of focus on mega brands.

詹姆斯，我是米歇爾。謝謝你的提問。我們已經討論了這一比例、絕對美元以及我們部署的美元的效率很長一段時間了。我總是回到這一點：我們關注比率，但我們不受比率的指導。當我們審視我們在發展業務和優化業務過程中所做的決策時，始終強調這一點非常重要：我們是根據對大品牌的關注做出的非常重要的投資組合決策。

So we streamlined the portfolio by reducing SKUs and secondary brands. Therefore, we are putting more weight in less brands and getting, as a consequence, more pressure, if you say, on the system execution and what we are doing. At the same time, we elevated our game massively in terms of data. And through BEES, through D2C, we have much more data today that we leverage with our draft line, our internal agency, so we can target better. We can be more agile in the way that we organize our campaigns and focus more with the resources that we have to get better reach and better amplification on our campaigns. And the combination of these brands, data and the mega platforms, they allow us to drive in a more effective way the dollars that we have.

因此，我們透過減少SKU和二級品牌來精簡產品組合。因此，我們將更多的精力放在更少的品牌上，從而對系統執行和我們所做的事情施加更大的壓力。同時，我們在數據方面大幅提升了我們的遊戲水平。透過 BEES 和 D2C，我們現在擁有更多的數據，我們可以利用這些數據和我們的選秀線、我們的內部機構，從而實現更好的定位。我們可以更靈活地組織我們的活動，並更加集中我們的資源，使我們的活動獲得更好的覆蓋範圍和擴大效果。這些品牌、數據和大型平台的結合使我們能夠以更有效的方式利用現有的資金。

So the same dollars, they work much harder. And therefore, we measure the ratios. We measure the total dollars, but our main leading KPI is effectiveness. And if I can give you an example, so Super Bowl this year, we got incredible ads that were integrated very well in our execution that they allowed us to have leadership in terms of visibility and engagement during Super Bowl with consumers.

所以，同樣的錢，他們要工作得更努力。因此，我們測量了比率。我們衡量的是總額，但我們主要的 KPI 是有效性。舉個例子，今年的超級碗，我們製作了令人難以置信的廣告，這些廣告與我們的執行非常契合，使我們在超級碗期間在消費者的知名度和參與度方面處於領先地位。

Our share accelerated in the market in both off-premise and on-premise during the Super Bowl week. In the on-premise, we had the number one and number two brands and it was a while that we didn't have this combination. And to top it up, Budweiser got the number one spot on the meter and our four brands got very well positioned amongst the top 10 brands in consumers' view in terms of quality of advertisement. So it's really great creative, good usage of data, a very good quantum in terms of dollars that we invest, but invested in a much more effective way. So we are looking at the return. We are not holding ourselves in any of the ratios specifically.

在超級盃比賽期間，我們在場外和場內市場的份額均加速成長。在現場，我們擁有第一個和第二大品牌，有一段時間我們沒有這樣的組合。更棒的是，百威在廣告品質評比中名列第一，我們的四個品牌在消費者心目中的廣告品質前十名中名列前茅。所以，這真的是一個非常好的創意，很好的利用了數據，從我們投資的金額來看，這是一個非常好的量，但是投資的方式要有效得多。因此我們正在關注回報。我們並沒有特別堅持任何比例。

And James, Fernando here. You asked about raw material cost of goods sold. And we said last year on our third quarter earnings call that 2025 is looking more like a normal year, more like a normal year on average, more or less in line with inflation, if I could try to qualify or quantify what a normal year is. But having said that, our hedging policy always hedge 12 years -- 12 months in advance. And then you know that by hedging 12 months in advance, most of the emerging markets currency devaluated throughout the middle of last year.

還有詹姆斯和費爾南多。您詢問的是銷售商品的原材料成本。我們在去年第三季的收益電話會議上表示，2025 年看起來更像是一個正常年份，平均而言更像一個正常年份，或多或少與通貨膨脹保持一致，如果我可以嘗試限製或量化什麼是正常年份的話。但話雖如此，我們的對沖政策總是提前12年——12個月進行對沖。然後你知道，透過提前 12 個月進行對沖，大多數新興市場的貨幣在去年年中都貶值了。

So one could expect easier comps on the first half of the year and higher comps on the second half of the year. But for the full year, on average, a normal year.

因此，人們可以預期，上半年的業績比較容易，而下半年的業績比較高。但就全年而言，平均而言，這是正常的一年。

Sanjeet Aujla, UBS.

Sanjeet Aujla，瑞銀。

Michel, Fernando, two from me, please. Firstly, coming back to free cash flow and CapEx in particular. Fernando, can you just help us understand where you're seeing the CapEx efficiencies? What is maintenance CapEx for the business these days?

米歇爾、費爾南多，請替我舉兩句。首先，回顧自由現金流和資本支出。費爾南多，您能否幫助我們了解您看到的資本支出效率在哪裡？目前企業的維護資本支出是多少？

And secondly, just coming back to China. Michel, you highlighted that you've got a plan in place since the end of last year. Can you just elaborate a little bit more on that? How are you evolving your strategy for the new normal in China?

其次，剛回到中國。米歇爾，你強調你從去年年底就已經制定了一個計劃。能否進一步詳細說明一下呢？您如何調整自己的策略以適應中國的新常態？

Sanjeet, Fernando here. Let me take the first one. So as we continue to implement our strategy, we look to optimize all lines of our business with our disciplined capital allocation. CapEx is one of the areas where we are making meaningful progress. As we deploy CapEx -- capital for CapEx projects, and $3.5 billion to $4 billion is a meaningful investment to support growth. We are doing this in an ever more efficient way with the following focus areas.

Sanjeet，這裡是 Fernando。讓我選第一個。因此，在我們繼續實施我們的策略的同時，我們希望透過嚴格的資本配置來優化我們所有業務線。資本支出是我們取得重大進展的領域之一。當我們部署資本支出（資本支出項目的資本）時，35 億至 40 億美元是支持成長的有意義的投資。我們將以更有效率的方式進行以下重點工作。

The first one is technology. We are deploying, for example, deploying AI, improving our ability to code with less man hours to deliver products. The other one is capacity. We are using our scale and our ZBB approach to be able to design better, procure better and build in a more efficient way and kind of almost like looking project by project, taking almost like a ZBB approach for CapEx as well. So we are increasing our efficiency. We are still very committed to invest in our business. I can give you a few examples.

第一個是技術。例如，我們正在部署人工智慧，以提高我們以更少的工時交付產品的編碼能力。另外一個就是容量。我們正在利用我們的規模和 ZBB 方法來實現更好的設計、更好的採購和更有效率地建設，這幾乎就像逐個專案地進行研究，對於資本支出也採取了幾乎像 ZBB 一樣的方法。因此我們正在提高效率。我們仍然非常致力於對我們的業務進行投資。我可以舉幾個例子。

We invested in additional brewing, packaging and distribution capacity in multiple countries such as Brazil, Colombia, where we have -- we are in the middle of the process of finishing a $400 million greenfield brewery in Honduras, in Mexico, South Africa and the US. But this optimization is not something new. This has been ongoing for the last two, three years. We optimized our CapEx in 2023, again in 2024, and we do all of that while maintaining a quite healthy growth for our business. And if you look at for the long term, we believe our CapEx outlook is appropriate to drive long-term growth.

我們在巴西、哥倫比亞等多個國家投資了額外的釀造、包裝和分銷能力，我們正在完成在宏都拉斯、墨西哥、南非和美國投資 4 億美元的綠地啤酒廠的建設。但這種優化並不是什麼新鮮事。這種情況已經持續了兩、三年了。我們在 2023 年和 2024 年優化了資本支出，在完成所有這些工作的同時，我們的業務也保持了相當健康的成長。如果從長遠來看，我們相信我們的資本支出前景適合推動長期成長。

Yes, Sanjeet, it's Michel here. I think that for China, I get the question of what people keep saying new normal. And I think that we are for like two or three years trying to find what the new normal means for China. And my experience in China is that you go through cycles. When you think that you are landing somewhere, things can move very quickly. And what you see in the market today there is everything that I said before, like more West, less East, you see last year is very tough.

是的，Sanjeet，我是 Michel。我認為對中國來說，我明白人們一直在說的新常態是什麼。我認為我們花了兩三年的時間來探索新常態對中國意味著什麼。我在中國的經驗是，你會經歷一個週期。當你以為自己即將降落在某個地方時，事情會發生得非常快。正如我之前所說，當今市場的情況就是如此，西方市場增多，東方市場減少，可見去年非常艱難。

The beginning of this year looks a little bit better, but things are settling. And I don't think that we can discount or call this a new normal to China because we need to give more time, see how the year will unfold. And our strategy, I think that is pretty much the same because it's focus on premiumization, making sure that we increase availability and leverage our route to market in China, but our execution can be better. And we are putting more resources on less brands. We are making the execution behind this brand more comprehensive and at the level that each brand deserves. And we want to accelerate the way that we leverage this brand, our route-to-market when we go to the key selling moments, sell more beer, execute better, get closer to consumer.

今年年初的情況看起來稍微好一些，但一切都穩定下來。我認為我們不能忽視或稱之為中國的新常態，因為我們需要更多的時間，看看今年會如何發展。我認為，我們的策略基本上相同，因為我們專注於高端化，確保提高可用性並利用我們在中國市場的管道，但我們的執行可以更好。我們正在將更多的資源投入到更少的品牌上。我們正在使這個品牌背後的執行更加全面，並達到每個品牌應有的水平。我們希望加速利用這個品牌的方式，當我們進入關鍵銷售時刻時，我們的市場路線，銷售更多的啤酒，執行得更好，更貼近消費者。

It's just the beginning of the year, but was a very good Chinese New Year. And we saw that sales to retailers, they moved somehow in line with the last year. But the sales to consumers so far, it looks like better than was last year. I cannot precisely say yet by how much, but was -- we are just like two weeks into looking at the numbers, but we need now to see spring, beginning of summer to see how things will develop in the year. And then maybe we can talk later second quarter, third quarter on what the normal for the year of 2025 look like. Thanks for the question.

雖然只是年初，但這是一個非常好的農曆新年。我們發現，面向零售商的銷售額與去年同期相比保持了一致。但到目前為止，消費者的銷售情況看起來比去年好。我還不能準確地說出具體數字，但是——我們才剛開始觀察兩週的數字，現在我們需要觀察春季和夏季的開始，才能知道今年的情況將如何發展。然後也許我們可以在第二季、第三季稍後討論 2025 年的正常情況。謝謝你的提問。

Rob Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.

奧滕斯坦（Rob Ottenstein），Evercore ISI。

Great. Michel, It's a little bit of a complicated nuanced question, so let me go slowly. You've been leading a cultural change at the company and I'd like to understand where you are with that? And I think part of the cultural change, and correct me if I'm wrong, is maybe getting a better balance on the marketing side between local and central decision-making. You operate in enormous markets. right? I mean China, Brazil, the US, incredible diversity of consumer. The consumer in Mississippi is very different than the consumer in San Francisco or New York. And I'm sure you have similar sorts of differences in China and Brazil. And so it's always kind of tricky, right? You want to have the scale of central decision-making and the big brands.

偉大的。米歇爾，這是一個有點複雜微妙的問題，所以讓我慢慢講。您一直在領導公司的文化變革，我想了解您目前進展如何？我認為文化變革的一部分（如果我錯了請糾正我）可能是在行銷方面在地方和中央決策之間取得更好的平衡。您在巨大的市場中運作。正確的？我指的是中國、巴西、美國，這些國家的消費者群體極為多元。密西西比州的消費者與舊金山或紐約的消費者有很大不同。我相信中國和巴西也有類似的差異。所以這總是有點棘手，對吧？您希望擁有中央決策的規模和大品牌。

But if you're consumer-centric, you've got to be sensitive to what's going on in the local markets and what the local consumers want. So in that context, I'm just very interested to know if you've changed that balance at all between centralized marketing decisions and local decisions, what role maybe data and AI is playing in that and perhaps whether that is -- that change in balance is helping you drive the very strong share gains that you've had this year?

但如果以消費者為中心，你就必須對當地市場的動態以及當地消費者的需求保持敏感。因此在這種背景下，我非常感興趣的是，您是否改變了集中行銷決策和本地決策之間的平衡，數據和人工智慧在其中扮演了什麼角色，以及這種平衡的改變是否幫助您推動了今年非常強勁的市場份額成長？

Robert, thanks for the question. I'll try to answer here the best I can, and I'm happy to follow up this question as we meet either Friday or on the weeks to come, okay? But I think that, yes, when you think about cultural change, I will just try to qualify what we mean by cultural in this case. I think that is the strategy and the discussion that we had in moving the company from an inorganic growth-led company to an organic growth-led company. And in a nutshell, means less growth by acquisitions, and more growth, granular bottoms-up, focus on growing the brands that we have in the operations that we have with the consumers that, as you said, are local.

羅伯特，謝謝你的提問。我將盡力在這裡回答，並且我很樂意在我們週五或接下來幾週見面時跟進這個問題，好嗎？但是我認為，是的，當你考慮文化變革時，我只會嘗試限定我們在這種情況下所說的文化的含義。我認為這是我們在將公司從無機成長主導型公司轉變為有機成長主導型公司時所採取的策略和討論。簡而言之，這意味著更少地透過收購來實現成長，而更多的是自下而上的精細增長，專注於發展我們在營運中擁有的品牌，以及像你所說的那樣，面向本地消費者的品牌。

And we operate, as you qualified very well in very diverse markets, but we operate with this idea of best of local and global, the combination of efforts focused on doing what is best for our consumers and our markets. And the way that we got organized on that, which I think that is getting this complexity and trying to distill into simple concepts is the mega brands. So the mega brands are up to five brands in each market that will lead our growth. So they are not global brands. They can be global brands, but they are the five relevant brands for each market.

正如您所說，我們在非常多樣化的市場中運作得非常好，但我們的營運理念是將本地和全球做到最好，我們將多種努力結合起來，專注於為我們的消費者和市場提供最好的服務。我認為，我們組織起來的方式就是化解這種複雜性，並試圖將其提煉為簡單的概念，這就是超級品牌。因此，每個市場最多有五個超級品牌將引領我們的成長。所以它們不是全球品牌。它們可以是全球品牌，但它們是每個市場的五個相關品牌。

We have in these markets the rest of the portfolio that we are either expanding or sustaining investments, but the leading brands are the mega brands. And these brands, they grew from $25 billion roughly in 2021 to be today more than $33 billion. So today, they are more than 57% of our portfolio and means that this optimization is working because bigger brands with more investments growing more. The second part of that is leveraging our scale with what we call these mega platforms. And these mega platforms can be sports events like Olympics or FIFA or they can be platforms that support our brands like music or like food or like one type of sport, which is tennis that we are trying to elevate globally with Stella.

在這些市場中，我們對其餘的品牌組合進行了擴大或維持投資，但領先的品牌都是超級品牌。這些品牌的市值從 2021 年的約 250 億美元成長到如今的 330 多億美元。所以今天，它們占我們投資組合的 57% 以上，這意味著這種優化是有效的，因為大品牌擁有更多的投資，成長更快。第二部分是利用我們所謂的大型平台來擴大我們的規模。這些大型平台可以是奧運或國際足總這樣的運動賽事，也可以是支持我們品牌的平台，例如音樂、美食或某種運動，我們正試圖透過 Stella 在全球範圍內提升網球的影響力。

And we are getting the mega brands, mega platforms and all the data that we are generating with our digital products to create a process, a one ABI way of marketing that can be used and deployed across all markets. So we have the portfolio segmentation. We have the investments in the mega brands. We have the data that now is common and granular across all countries. All wrapped up in a process that everybody can use. But then this process, the brands, the consumers are our local consumers. So it's a very interesting combination of having a more simple approach for a global company like ours that can be used in all markets while continuing to be laser-focused on the consumers and in each market.

我們正在利用大型品牌、大型平台以及我們數位產品產生的所有數據來創建一個流程，一種可以在所有市場使用和部署的 ABI 行銷方式。因此，我們有投資組合細分。我們對大品牌進行了投資。我們目前擁有所有國家通用的、詳細的數據。所有一切都包含在每個人都可以使用的流程中。但在這個過程中，品牌、消費者都是我們的在地消費者。因此，對於像我們這樣的全球性公司來說，這是一個非常有趣的組合，採用更簡單的方法，可以應用於所有市場，同時繼續專注於消費者和每個市場。

So one of the slides that we shared here today in the presentation, which I think is a very interesting one, is how we are getting this one global insight, which is healthier choices and healthier lifestyle and deploying with our balanced choices with different propositions across all markets. So for the US, it's less carbs and is Michelob Ultra. For South Korea, is Cass zero sugar. For Brazil is Stella gluten-free and globally is Corona Cero alcohol. So same insight, same way of addressing the site with different propositions and innovation, but then catering for each and every local consumer need.

所以，我們今天在演講中分享的其中一張幻燈片，我認為非常有趣，是關於如何獲得這一全球洞察，即更健康的選擇和更健康的生活方式，並在所有市場中採用不同的主張和平衡的選擇。因此對於美國來說，它碳水化合物含量較少，而且是 Michelob Ultra。對韓國來說，就是卡士零糖。巴西的無麩質食品是 Stella，全球的無麩質食品是 Corona Cero 酒精。因此，同樣的洞察力，同樣的方法，用不同的主張和創新來處理網站，但隨後滿足每個本地消費者的需求。

So I'm happy to take on this question more when we next meet. And I hope that the answer could address your question, okay? Thank you very much.

因此我很高興在我們下次見面時進一步討論這個問題。我希望答案能解答你的問題，好嗎？非常感謝。

Trevor Stirling, Bernstein.

特雷弗·斯特林，伯恩斯坦。

Michel, and Fernando, my two questions. The first one, Michel, you've got a range for organic EBITDA growth of 4% to 8%. Can you just talk about what do you think the key factors are that might lead you to the bottom end or the high end of that range?

米歇爾和費爾南多，我有兩個問題。第一個問題，米歇爾，您預測的有機 EBITDA 成長範圍是 4% 到 8%。您能否談談您認為哪些關鍵因素可能導致您達到該範圍的底端或高端？

And second one, probably for Fernando. Fernando, a big step-up in cash flow this year. As I look forward -- sorry, in 2024, as I look forward to 2025, would be right to think, well, hopefully, there'll be a bit of organic -- sorry, dollar EBITDA growth. Hopefully, again, dollar interest will fall a little bit. CapEx, you've already guided to, and working capital probably to be more or less neutral across the year. Is that the right way to think about the 2025 cash flow?

第二個可能是給費爾南多的。費爾南多，今年的現金流有很大增加。當我展望 2024 年或 2025 年時，我的想法是正確的，希望會有一點有機的——對不起，美元 EBITDA 增長。希望美元利息能再次略為下降。您已經指導過資本支出和營運資本在全年可能或多或少保持中性。這是思考 2025 年現金流的正確方式嗎？

Trevor, Michel here. I'll take on the first one and leave Fernando for the cash flow question. I think that just -- maybe stepping back on the idea of the guidance, you remember this, I repeat this, and I hope that this point is very boring repetition to you all that we provided the guidance because we were in the transition from inorganic to organic. And the idea was grow organically, maintaining the financial discipline and this range of 4% to 8% being like a ballpark to make everybody's life a little bit easier in terms of the projections. And we've been delivering, as we stated before, 13 quarters in a row within or above this range. And there is many things out there happening. Each and every quarter might be different.

特雷弗，我是米歇爾。我將解決第一個問題，讓費南多解決現金流問題。我認為只是——也許回顧一下指導的想法，你們記住這一點，我重複這一點，我希望這一點對你們所有人來說都是非常無聊的重複，我們提供了指導，因為我們正處於從無機到有機的過渡中。我們的想法是有機成長，保持財務紀律，4% 到 8% 這個範圍就像一個大概的範圍，從預測來看，可以讓每個人的生活在預測方面更輕鬆。正如我們之前所說，我們已經連續 13 個季度保持在這個範圍內或以上。還有很多事情正在發生。每個季度的情況可能會有所不同。

In reality, if you look at the three years, they were all very different in itself. But we've been managing with the levers that we have to maintain the focus on the long term and grow while delivering on this compounding growth on the EBITDA line. And if we do this and we optimize the business in the way that we've been optimizing, then the consequence is a growing flow in our free cash flow. And I think that this is what Fernando will be talking about now.

事實上，如果你回顧這三年，你會發現它們本身都非常不同。但我們一直在利用各種手段，我們必須保持對長期目標的關注，並在實現 EBITDA 複合成長的同時實現成長。如果我們這樣做，並且按照我們一直以來優化的方式優化業務，那麼結果就是我們的自由現金流會增加。我認為這正是費南多現在要談論的話題。

And I think that at this point, it's too early for us to give any specifics on what could impact the high range or the low range. I think that we need a little bit more time to see how the year will develop, and we'll probably go back to your question during quarter one or quarter two results. And we have to take this more in details there. But today, we are encouraged by the momentum that we have, and we see that the 4% to 8% is solid as an outlook for the year of 2025.

我認為，現在我們還無法具體說明哪些因素會影響高範圍或低範圍。我認為我們需要更多時間來觀察今年的發展情況，我們可能會在第一季或第二季公佈業績時重新回答您的問題。我們必須在這裡更詳細地討論這個問題。但今天，我們對所擁有的勢頭感到鼓舞，我們認為 4% 到 8% 的成長速度對於 2025 年的前景來說是穩固的。

And Trevor, Fernando here. So on your cash flow question, you are right. When you look at our improvement 2023 versus 2024, we had -- we start with an EBIT increased. The EBIT increased around $1 billion. So that helped cash.

還有特雷弗和費爾南多。因此，關於您的現金流問題，您是對的。當您查看我們 2023 年與 2024 年的改進時，我們發現 - 我們的息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 有所增加。息稅前利潤增加了約10億美元。這對現金有幫助。

We continue to delever. So we saved in net interest. This was like $300 million. We had a good improvement on working capital. We mentioned in 2023 about the impact from extended credit terms to our wholesalers and lower payables because you're optimizing inventory purchase and CapEx, and now we are getting to a more normal level and the efficient CapEx spend. So between 2023 and 2024, we had a $700 million improvement there. When you look forward, on the EBITDA side, we just talked about it. We have our outlook. So outlook should deliver another organic growth on top of what we had.

我們繼續去槓桿。因此我們節省了淨利息。這相當於 3 億美元。我們的營運資金有了很大的改善。我們在 2023 年提到了延長信貸期限對我們的批發商和降低應付款項的影響，因為您正在優化庫存採購和資本支出，現在我們正在達到更正常的水平和高效的資本支出。因此，在 2023 年至 2024 年間，我們在這方面取得了 7 億美元的進步。展望未來，就 EBITDA 方面而言，我們剛剛談到了它。我們有我們的觀點。因此，前景應該會在現有基礎上再次實現有機成長。

Then the net working capital, it's kind of -- we had in the past some more large swings year-over-year driven by COVID and some supply chain disruptions. 2024 is what we can call more normalized change in working capital. And since we have a negative working capital cycle as we grow, this should also help drive cash flow. And the ETR outlook, we remain slightly better than the outlook from last year, but consistent with where we are. So all in all, I think we are in a good position to continue to generate strong cash flows going forward.

然後是淨營運資本，有點——過去，由於新冠疫情和一些供應鏈中斷，我們的淨營運資本比去年同期出現了較大波動。 2024年，我們可以稱之為營運資本變動更加正常化。而且由於我們在發展過程中出現了負營運資本週期，這也有助於推動現金流。ETR 前景仍然比去年的前景略好，但與我們的現狀一致。總的來說，我認為我們處於有利地位，能夠在未來繼續產生強勁的現金流。

Gen Cross, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行 Gen Cross 先生。

First question is just on the US where STR is positive in Q4, and you commented on gaining share, clearly, momentum in both the businesses. And it sounds like the beer industry overall improved through the course of 2024. And Michel, you talked about the portfolio reaching an inflection point. I wonder if you could comment on whether you think modestly positive STR growth is now sustainable in the US business?

第一個問題是關於美國的，第四季度的 STR 是正值，您評論說兩家公司的份額都在增加，顯然，兩家公司的勢頭都很好。聽起來，2024 年啤酒產業整體會有所改善。米歇爾，您談到投資組合已經到達一個轉折點。我想知道您是否認為美國業務目前能夠持續保持適度積極的 STR 成長？

And the second question is just on Mexico. Again, there's comment on improved consumer momentum in Q4. Could you just share some color on what you think drove that and whether that's sustained into the start of 2025?

第二個問題是關於墨西哥的。再次，有評論稱第四季度消費動能有所改善。您能否解釋一下，您認為是什麼推動了這一趨勢，以及這種趨勢是否會持續到 2025 年初？

Gen, so on the US, you are right, we saw during last year, a sequential improvement in the industry. So slow start, summer was somehow bad weather. And then on the second half of the year, we saw improvements in quarter three, and quarter four was a more normal. And we've been seeing this this year as well. So a very big correlation with weather events. And a normal week is a more normal industry. Weeks where we have disruptions being cold or rain, we've been seeing that the industry is reacting a lot to that.

Gen，關於美國，您說得對，我們看到去年該行業出現了連續的改善。開始得如此緩慢，夏天的天氣不知為何就不好。在下半年，我們看到第三季有所改善，第四季則更加正常。我們今年也看到了這種情況。因此與天氣事件有很大關聯。而一個正常的星期是一個更正常的行業。每週，我們都會因為寒冷或下雨而受到干擾，我們發現業界對此做出了很大的反應。

I don't think that the industry is at a positive volume point yet, but we've been seeing dollar-wise, the industry stable growing. And when we have good weekends, good months, you see some dollar growth. Our portfolio had somehow a very similar path last year. So we improved quarter-after-quarter being the quarter four, one that was positive for our share with both Michelob Ultra and Busch Light gaining a lot of momentum and being the number one and number two brands in share growth in the industry.

我認為該行業的銷量尚未達到正值，但從美元角度來看，我們看到該行業穩定成長。當我們擁有美好的週末、美好的幾個月時，你會看到美元成長。去年，我們的投資組合的走勢非常相似。因此，我們每個季度都在不斷改進，尤其是在第四季度，這對我們的份額產生了積極影響，Michelob Ultra 和 Busch Light 都獲得了巨大的發展勢頭，並成為行業份額增長排名第一和第二的品牌。

I think that we -- on our side, we can, let's say, control better the performance of the brands and the relative market share. And it's complicated to have a very strong forecast on the industry, again, because there are many things in play at this moment. So there is some economic pressures in some segments of the population. You have this migration issue and some ZIP codes where you have more Hispanic consumers, you see that the performance is slightly negative to the average. But we, in our favor, I think this year, we should have a better summer.

我認為，就我們而言，我們可以更好地控製品牌的表現和相對的市場份額。而且，對該行業做出非常準確的預測非常複雜，因為目前有很多因素在起作用。因此，部分民眾面臨一些經濟壓力。您有這個遷移問題，有些郵遞區號擁有較多西班牙裔消費者，您會發現其表現略低於平均水準。但對我們有利的是，我認為今年我們應該度過一個更好的夏天。

So let's see how quarter one will unfold. Let's see what are the tailwinds during the summer. So we will be able to talk a little bit more about what the outlook for the volume is as we look at the numbers down the road. I think that's too early to make any call at this moment.

那麼讓我們看看第一季將如何展開。讓我們看看夏季的順風是什麼。因此，當我們觀察未來的數字時，我們將能夠更多地談論交易量的前景。我認為現在做出任何判斷還為時過早。

Fernando also said before that there is some technicals on the quarter one. So there is one last trading day, that is Easter. There is some inventory that we built up last year ahead of the labor negotiations. This will phase out through quarter one into quarter two. And I think that by the time that we get to the summer, we will have a very good view of what the year will be. And Mexico, similarly, Mexico had like phasing last year, but a different one was like government spending on the quarter one and then elections on quarter two that hold on this spending, quarter three start to normalize.

費南多之前也說過，第一季有一些技術問題。所以還有最後一個交易日，那就是復活節。我們在去年勞資談判之前累積了一些庫存。這將在第一季至第二季逐步取消。我認為，到夏天到來的時候，我們將對今年的情況有非常清晰的認識。墨西哥也類似，去年也經歷了類似的階段，但不同的是，第一季政府支出，第二季選舉，這些支出將維持在第三季的正常水準。

And of course, there is a lagging effect, right? So you stop spending in quarter two, consumer purchase power goes down quarter three, you normalize in quarter three. Quarter four, we saw more normal Mexico. And I think that this is so far what we've been seeing this year as well with this cold weather that hit the US, and we saw snow in Florida, snow in New Orleans, also taking a little bit of the northern part of Mexico, which was colder than average. But on average, Mexico is okay as it was last year. And again, I think that as we go from quarter one to quarter two, we will see a much better picture down there as well. So thanks for your question.

當然，存在滯後效應，對嗎？因此，你在第二季停止支出，消費者購買力在第三季下降，然後在第三季恢復正常。第四季度，我們看到墨西哥的情況更加正常。我認為，這也是我們今年迄今為止所看到的情況，美國遭遇了寒冷天氣，佛羅裡達和新奧爾良都下雪了，墨西哥北部的部分地區也出現了降雪，這裡的氣溫比平均水平要低。但總體而言，墨西哥的表現與去年一樣好。而且我認為，隨著從第一季進入第二季度，我們將看到更好的前景。感謝您的提問。

This was the final question. If your question has not been answered, please feel free to contact the Investor Relations team. I will now turn the floor back over to Mr. Michel Doukeris for closing remarks.

這是最後一個問題。如果您的問題尚未得到解答，請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。現在我將把發言權交還給米歇爾·杜克里先生，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, Jesse. So thank you, everyone, for the time today, for the ongoing partnership and support to our business. Stay safe and well, and we will see you guys on our next calls and one-to-one interactions. Thanks so much. Have a good day.

謝謝你，傑西。所以，感謝大家今天抽出時間，感謝大家對我們業務的持續合作與支持。保持安全和健康，我們將在下次通話和一對一互動中見到你們。非常感謝。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. This concludes today's earnings conference call and webcast. Please disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的收益電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。請斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。