Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (BUD) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Anheuser-Busch InBev full-year 2015 earnings conference call and webcast.

Hosting the call today from AB InBev is Mr. Carlos Brito, Chief Executive Officer.

(Operator Instructions)

Some of the information provided during the conference call may contain statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements.

These expectations are based on the management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

It is possible that the Company's actual results and financial condition may differ, possibly materially, from the anticipated results and financial conditions indicated in these forward-looking statements.

For a discussion of some of the risks and important factors that could affect the Firm's future results, see risk factors in the Company's latest annual report on Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 24, 2015.

AB InBev assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information provided during the conference call and shall not be liable for any action taken in reliance upon such information.

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Mr. Carlos Brito.

Sir, you may begin.

Thank you, Jacki.

And good morning, good afternoon, everyone.

Welcome to our full-year 2015 earnings call.

As usual, let me start with the highlights.

2015 was a year of strong organic top-line growth, with particularly strong performance from our three global brands.

We continue to invest behind our brands 2015 to drive long-term growth while still delivering solid EBITDA growth and margin enhancement.

In late 2015, we also announced the proposed combination with SABMiller, so, let's me recap where we are with the transaction before continuing with the reveal of our results.

The proposed combination was announced on November 11 and included an agreement with Molson Coors of the disposal of SAB's Miller stake in MillerCoors conditional on the closing of the main transaction.

In addition, in January, we received a binding offer from Asahi for the purchase of certain SAB European premium brands and their related businesses.

We have also pre-funded approximately $47 billion of the purchase price through US dollar bond issuances, which allowed us to partially cancel $42.5 billion of the $75 billion committed senior facilities.

Integration planning is well underway but our focus is on obtaining the necessary regulatory clearances so that we can close the transaction in the second half of the year.

Let's now look at the full-year results in more detail.

Total revenue grew by 6.3% in 2015 with revenues from our global brands growing by 12.6%.

Revenue per hectoliter grew by 7.7% on a constant geographic basis, driven by our revenue management initiatives and strong growth from our premium brands.

Total volumes were down 0.6% in the year with own beer marginally down and non-beer down 4.7%.

Volumes of Focus Brands grew by 0.4% while volumes of our global brands grew by 7.3%.

EBITDA grew by 7.8% driven by the strong top-line results, with EBITDA margin expanding by 55 basis points to 38.6%.

Normalizing earnings per share decreased to $5.20 from $5.43 with good organic growth and EBITDA and lower net finance costs being offset by unfavorable currency translation.

Finally, the Board has proposed a final dividend of EUR2 per share for FY15, bringing the total dividend for the year to EUR3.60, an increase of 20% over 2015.

We believe we have the strongest portfolio of brands in the industry with 19 brands, each generating over $1 billion in retail sales per year.

Last year, our Focus Brands accounted for approximately two-thirds of our total volume and revenue, including our global brands which accounted for around 18% of our volume, 22% of our revenue, and well over one-third of our revenue growth.

Our global brands are very complementary, providing Anheuser with the opportunity to connect with a broad range of consumers across multiple geographies and consumption occasions.

Last year, revenues of our global brands grew by 12.6% with volumes up 7.3%, well ahead of the growth of our total portfolio.

Budweiser revenues grew by 7.6% led by Brazil, China, and Russia.

Stella Artois revenues grew by 12.5% with great performances in the US, Argentina, Canada, and Brazil.

Corona delivered revenue growth of 23% driven by good results in Canada, Chile, and the UK, as well as the benefit of bringing the brand back into our own distribution network in a number of our markets.

These are great results and show the benefit of consistent global messaging and marketing activation.

In order to continue to accelerate top-line growth, we have developed a deep understanding of consumers' needs and occasions.

These insights have enable us to identify four commercial priorities which are relevant across the whole of our business.

First, growing our global brands involves leveraging the potential Budweiser, Stella Artois, and Corona.

Second, premiumizing and integrating beer is all about creating excitement and aspiration in beer, especially with millennials, by bringing new energy and variety to the beer experience.

Third, elevating the core is about raising the perception and relevance of our major core brands through differentiated messaging and large-scale activations.

Finally, developing the near-beer segment gives us an opportunity to compete for a greater share of total alcohol.

These four commercial priorities are applicable in all of our markets, although, depending on the attributes of each market, some of the priorities may be more relevant than others.

You'll get a better understanding at this point when I take you through our results in our four top markets.

So, let's start with the US.

US industry volume continued to improve.

In 2015 we estimate industry sales to retailers, STRs, was marginally up in the fourth quarter and down only 30 bps in the full year.

We expect industry volumes to continue to improve in 2016.

Our own STRs were down 1.7% in the year with our market share down approximately 65 basis points based on our estimates after any improvement in the trends in the last quarter.

This is obviously not where we want to be.

Growing the industry and stabilizing our market share remain our top priorities in the US.

Revenue per hectoliter grew by 1.6% in 2015, helped by a positive brand mix contribution from our above-premium brands.

EBITDA for the US was down 4.3% in the year with EBITDA margin declining to 39.6%, primarily driven by a high single-digit increase in sales and marketing investments during the year as we continued to invest in the long-term.

We're also working more closely than ever with our wholesalers in an initiative which we're calling Winning Together.

This was one of our major priorities last year and included collaborating with our wholesaler panel on our three-year plan.

We will continue to build the success to drive our relationship to a new level.

Given the sophistication of the market it is not surprising that all commercial priorities are relevant to our US business.

Growing our global brands means a deep focus on Stella Artois and Budweiser.

Our craft portfolio as well as Stella Artois play key roles in premiumizing and integrating beer.

Elevating our core brands of Bud Light, Budweiser, and Michelob Ultra is our top priority in the US, while developing the near-beer segment is important in growing our share of total alcohol.

I now want to dig a little deeper into a couple of these topics, starting with elevating the core.

Bud Light had a challenging year in terms of market share, in part due to a tough 2014 comparable when the brand benefited from the Whatever USA campaign, the FIFA World Cup, and the rollout of the aluminum bottle.

In 2015, Bud Light STRs were down low single digits, leading to an estimated loss of total market share of approximately 40 basis points, and some share loss in the premium light segment.

Looking forward, we expect Bud Light to benefit from a refreshed visual brand identity in our Raise One to Right Now campaign, which debuted at the 2016 Super Bowl.

On the other hand, 2015 was a great year for Budweiser with the brand delivering its best STR trend in more than a decade, driven by successful campaigns emphasizing the brand's quality and heritage credentials, supported by refreshed packaging.

STRs declined by low single digits with total market share down approximately 20 bps during the year.

The Brewed the Hard Way campaign has struck a chord with many beer drinkers, and we continue that message through the Bud and Burgers summer campaign, and more recently 2016 Not Backing Down Super Bowl campaign.

Last but not least, Michelob Ultra is on fire.

Ultra grew more than 15% in 2015 and gained more shares than any other beer brand in the market according to IRI.

Ultra is a lifestyle brand with powerful differentiators from the rest of the beer category.

Increased media pressure is paying off.

And for the first time in five years, we advertised Michelob Ultra at the Super Bowl with the brand's near 2016 platform, brewed for those who go the extra mile.

Turning to premiumization and integrating beer, Stella Artois had another strong year, delivering double-digit bottom growth, while Goose Island IPA grew more than 150%.

Shock Top had a more difficult year but we have exciting plans in place for 2016.

All of our new craft partnerships are showing good growth trends and collectively grew double digits in 2015, 0making an important contribution to our wholesaler's portfolio.

Moving on to Mexico, revenues grew by 11.1% in 2015 with beer revenue per hectoliter growing by 3.5% driven by our revenue management initiatives and the positive impact from our brand mix.

Our team in Mexico delivered a strong finish to the year with volumes up over 11% in the fourth quarter and more than 7% in the year, driven by a favorable macroeconomic environment and good performance by Corona, Bud Light, and Victoria.

Market share was marginally up in the year, reaching a level of just over 58%, driven by the strong performance of our Focus Brands which now represent 90% of our total volumes.

EBITDA grew by 18.2% with an EBITDA margin enhancement of over 300 basis points, reaching 50.8%.

By the end of 2015 we had delivered $940 million of cost savings, or 94% of our $1 billion synergy commitment.

We expect to deliver the remaining $60 million to reach our commitment primarily during the first half of 2016.

Growing our global brands in Mexico entails focus on Stella Artois, which is showing good growth from a small base.

Of course Corona plays a very important role in Mexico.

Just like Budweiser in the US, Corona is a core brand in its home market.

Premiumizing and integrating beer involves driving the Modelo brand family and enhancing our premium portfolio with international and craft brands.

Innovating our core brands is key for Mexico with Corona and Victoria as well as Bud Light in the core plus segment leading the way, while the Ritas are our primary focus for developing the near-beer segment.

Looking at elevating the core in more detail, the Corona family had a great year as they continue to drive the brand's undisputed leadership in the core segment.

Victoria volumes are also very strong, in part due to the brand's new visual identity in the celebration of 150 years of Mexican heritage.

Finally, Bud Light had another amazing year on the back of a great activation, particularly around NFL and Sensations, an electronic dance music platform.

While elevating the core is our top priority in Mexico, it is important that we also drive premiumization and aspiration in the beer category.

Michelob Ultra is playing an important role in this respect.

It was introduced in 2014 and has been well received, becoming our second largest premium brand by volume in 2015.

Craft in Mexico is growing rapidly, and we have been supporting the development of this segment through our e-commerce platform, as well as select acquisitions of craft brewers, including Mexicali and Tijuana.

We have also seen some great results from BeerHouse by Modelo, an online retail site carrying imported and domestic specialty beers.

Turning to Brazil, 2015 was a challenging year for Brazil, but we are pleased with how we quickly adapted to the new market reality.

Brazil revenue grew by 8% in the year, with beer revenue per hectolitre up 11.7%, benefiting from our revenue management initiatives, increased own distribution and premium brand mix.

Our total volumes in Brazil decreased by 2.7%, with beer volumes down 1.8%, and soft drinks volumes down 5.2%.

Our premium and near beer brands delivered good growth, led by Budweiser, Stella Artois, Corona, Original and Skol Beats Senses.

EBITDA grew by 10.6%, driven by solid top-line growth, with a margin increase of 128 bps, leading to 53.6%.

We expect the macroeconomic environment in Brazil will remain challenging in 2016.

We expect our own net revenues to grow organically by mid to high single digits, after an expected weak first quarter due to a tough comparable.

In Brazil, all three of our global brands have an important role to play in accelerating the growth of premium and driving positive brand mix.

They also play a critical role in premiumizing and invigorating beer in Brazil, supported by our portfolio of domestic premium brands and our recently acquired craft brands, Wals and Colorado.

Elevating the core is critically important in Brazil, and requires maintaining and improving the health of Skol, Brahma and Antarctica.

Finally, we are very excited about the potential to shape the near beer segment in Brazil.

One year after the launch of Skol Beats Senses, in its iconic blue bottle, we added Skol Beats Spirit in a green bottle.

Skol Beats has become one of the strongest brands in our portfolio, with very high preference among young adults.

The near beer segment now represents 1% of our beer volumes in Brazil, and is helping to increase our share of throat while driving incremental volume, revenue per hectolitre and margins.

Looking at a couple of these pillars in more detail, premium is growing quickly in Brazil and already represents 10% of our volume, with our global brands playing a key role.

Budweiser leads the premium segment based on Nielsen data, while Stella Artois is positioned as the most aspirational beer in Brazil.

Corona is off to a terrific start after its launch, and is generating huge consumer interest.

Turning to elevating the core, in 2015, Skol's Summer On campaign delivered great consumer experiences, including Carnival and other major summer events, helping the brand to finish 2015 as the most valuable Latin American brand across all categories, based on the BrandZ annual report, an amazing achievement.

During the second half of 2015, we also launched Skol Ultra, a low-calorie line extension, further enhancing the Skol brand equity.

Antarctica and Brahma also had campaigns around major events, including Antarctica samba events in Rio de Janeiro, and Brahma country music festivals in Sao Paulo.

Skol, Brahma and Antarctica play a central role in Brazilian culture and will continue to deliver great experiences for consumers through summer festivals, Carnival, music and sports, including the 2016 Rio Olympic Games.

Moving on to China, continuing economic headwinds led to a decline in industry volumes of approximately 6% in 2015, with most of the impact being felt in the value and core segments.

However, our own business, which is more focused on the core plus and premium segments, performed much better than the industry, with total volumes up 0.4% in the year, and the combined volumes of our core plus, premium and super-premium Brands growing by double digits.

We estimate that we gained approximately 100 basis points of market share on an organic basis, reaching a level of 18.6%.

Our revenue grew by almost 10%, with revenue per hectolitre growing by 9.4%, driven mainly by brand mix.

China EBITDA grew by 33.7%, with margin expansion of over 400 basis points, leading to 22.6% margin.

Growing our global brands, premiumizing and invigorating beer and elevating the core are the most relevant of our commercial priorities in China.

As we highlighted during our investor seminar in Guangzhou in September, future growth in China is expected to come from the core plus, premium and super-premium segments.

These segments now account for more than 50% of our total China volumes, and include such strong brands as Harbin Ice, Budweiser, Stella Artois, Hoegaarden and Corona.

We also have strong core brands, including Harbin in the northeast and Sedrin in the southeast, and protecting these strongholds is a priority.

In terms of growing our global brands, Budweiser is the leading brand in premium, delivering double-digit volume growth in 2015 in a challenging market environment, and from an already large base.

We also see significant opportunity to develop the super-premium segment, given the growth of urban centers and consumer interest in brands with authenticity.

Our global brands, Corona and Stella Artois, and our international brand Hoegaarden, are well positioned in this space.

In the core segments, Harbin, Sedrin and our other regional brands provide choice for our consumers, enabling us to compete in multiple channels, especially the traditional on trade.

Harbin Ice is our flagship brand in the core plus segment, and now accounts for more than 30% of Harbin's volume.

Harbin Ice is the cool beer brand in China, bringing fun, young and energetic programs to our consumers.

I would now like to highlight a couple of important initiatives in our Better World agenda, starting with our Smart Drinking goals.

For more than 30 years, we have invested in the promotion of responsible drinking, discouraging binge drinking, underage drinking and drunk driving.

With the launch of our new global Smart Drinking goals in 2015, we have deepened our commitment to reducing the harmful use of alcohol.

Our new goals aim to encourage consumers to make smart drinking choices and modify their behaviors with the introduction of no alcohol and lower alcohol beer products.

One of our commitments, therefore, is to make 20% of our beer volume no alcohol or low alcohol by 2025.

Our water strategy focuses on stakeholder engagement to manage our water risks, invest in effective partnerships, and ensure long-term sustainability of water supplies for our operations and for the communities in which we live and work.

At 3.2 hectoliters of water per hectolitre produced, we became the most water-efficient global brewer in 2015.

We are now ramping up our water stewardship efforts through initiatives such as the scaling up of our SmartBarley program and the improvement of the health of high stress watersheds.

We are also building awareness of the importance of clean water through the Stella Artois Buy a Lady a Drink campaign in partnership with water.org.

With that I will hand over to Felipe Dutra to talk about earnings, cash flow and capital allocation.

Felipe?

Hello, everyone.

I will start with a summary of our normalized earnings per share performance in 2015 and then drill down into some of the more important line items.

Normalized EPS declined by 4.2% to $5.20 per share in 2015.

As you can see from slide 30, the strong organic growth in EBITDA from our underlying business and lower net finance results were offset by unfavorable currency translation.

Drilling down into some of the other line items, starting with EBITDA, Brito has already covered our EBITDA performance in detail, but slide 31 shows the contribution of each of our zones to the revenue and EBITDA performance in 2015.

Each of our six geographic zones generated over $1 billion of EBITDA last year, with a healthy balance between developed and developing markets.

In 2015 more than half of our revenues and EBITDA was generated in faster growing developing markets.

Our total Company EBITDA grew organically by 7.8% last year, with the majority of the growth coming from our developing markets Brazil, Mexico, China and Latin America.

The North American zone remains our largest zone in terms of revenue, EBITDA and cash flow generation, delivering almost $6.2 billion of EBITDA last year.

The decrease in net finance costs to $1.2 billion included a reduction in net interest expense of $168 million, mainly due to a lower average rate of interest.

In 2016, we expect the average rate of interest to be in the range of 3.5% to 4.0%, excluding the impact of the proposed combination with SABMiller.

In 2016, the net cost of the pre-funding of the SAB purchase price will be accounted in net interest expense as a recurring item, and is expected to amount to approximately $400 million in the full quarter.

Other financial results included within net finance costs includes $844 million of net gains linked to the hedging of our share-based payment programs, compared to $711 million in 2014, as well as net foreign exchange gains on US dollar cash balances held in Mexico.

Moving to tax, the normalized effective tax rate for the year was 19.1%, an increase from 18.8% in 2014.

This increase is mainly due to changes in country profit mix, partially offset by the favorable impact of the gain linked to the hedging of our share-based payment programs.

Our normalized effective tax rate is expected to be in the range of 22% to 24% in 2016, between 23% and 25% from 2017 to 2018, and in the range of 25% to 27% thereafter.

This increase in the effective tax rate over time is driven by lower deductibility of goodwill amortization in Brazil, country profit mix, and the assumption of zero future gains or losses on the hedging of our share-based payment programs.

For the avoidance of doubt, our guidance on normalized effective tax rate excludes the impact of the proposed combination with SABMiller, and the impact of the pre-funding of the purchase price for which no tax deduction is expected to be reported at this point.

Normalized EPS was impacted by unfavorable currency translation of $0.65 per share, driven mainly by the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso and the euro.

We take a long-term view of our markets and are focused on the organic growth of our business, accepting that currency volatility is part of doing business in a global company.

Our FX risk management policy includes the hedging strategy focused on our transactional exposures, principally cost of sales.

And we also continuously monitor our debt-currency mix in light of ongoing developments in our core business and financial markets.

2015 was another year of robust cash flow generation despite significant currency headwinds, with cash flow from operating activities of $14.1 billion, and free cash flow, as defined, of $11.4 billion.

Changes in working capital had a positive impact of $1.0 billion, of which more than 50% was driven by improvements in core working capital.

Core working capital consists of those elements of working capital which we consider are fundamental to the operation of the business.

It excludes certain items which management has little or no ability to influence -- for example, payroll related payables and accruals.

In 2015 we continued to drive improvements in core working capital, reaching an average level of negative 12.5% of net revenues.

Moving to dividends, the Board is proposing, subject to shareholder approval, a final dividend of EUR2 per share, which, combined with the interim dividend of EUR1.6 per share paid in November last year, would lead to a total dividend payment for FY15 of EUR3.6 per share.

Finally, before closing, I would like to confirm that our capital allocation objectives remain unchanged, and will not change following the closing of the proposed combination with SAB.

Our first priority will always be to invest behind our brands and to take full advantage of the organic growth opportunities in our business.

M&A remains a core competency, and we will always be ready to look at opportunities when and if they arise, provided that the target, deal structure and price make sense.

We recognize the value of growing dividends over time, consistent with the low volatility of a non-cyclical business.

And our goal is to reach a dividend yield between 3% to 4%, in line with other consumer goods companies.

Our optimal capital structure remains a net debt to EBITDA ratio of around 2 times.

And at this level, the return of cash to shareholders is expected to consist of both dividends and share buybacks.

And with that I will hand over back to Jacki to begin the Q&A session.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions)

Nik Oliver, UBS.

Thanks for the questions.

Can I please start with your craft US.

You highlighted the continued double-digit growth.

I'm just interested in, how many craft brands you think you can support on the portfolio, what percentage of US volumes craft actually can become over time, and whether you see any of those US brands having potential to travel internationally.

Hi, Nik.

Brito here.

Craft is a growing segment in the US.

That goes without saying.

It is also very profitable.

That's why we felt we had to reinforce our portfolio with a couple of craft brands from different regions.

I think it's only fair to offer to our wholesalers and to our consumers an option in that segment, as well.

That segment is growing and it's profitable.

For sure, some of those have global potential.

But, even before global potential let's talk about the national potential.

Craft is in itself a very local or regional play.

But many crafts have become national crafts.

And in our portfolio, Goose IPA grew 150% in 2015.

It's showing that there are consumers out there that, yes, will consider a national craft.

So, now, the next question is, what about consumers, the global consumer, will they consider a national or international or global craft?

We think the answer is yes.

We have thoughts around this.

Great, thanks a lot.

And just as a quick follow-up, I've seen the guidance, you mentioned that you expect the US market to improve overall.

Do you expect ABI to do a better performance in volume terms overall, as well, either in terms of lower volume declines or just sequential improvement?

Our guidance comes from the fact that the trends in the US industry development every year has been getting better and better.

So, last year, if I'm not mistaken, it was 0.6, this year it was 0.3 negative.

But last quarter was 0.15 positive.

Of course, the weather helped -- 0.15 positive percentage points

We think, the economy continues to create jobs.

That is important.

Gas prices are down.

And the trend is positive.

So, there is momentum there and we think that is the outlook we have for the industry.

We will continue to try to not only help the industry grow or come back to growth but also balance market share, but doing it in a way that makes sense for the long term.

That is why we're investing ahead of the curve and investing ahead of top-line growth in the US because we believe that there's lots of great opportunities to build an even better business for the future.

Okay.

Thanks very much.

Sanjeet Aujla, Credit Suisse.

A couple questions, please.

Firstly, on your outlook for China, one of your competitors has given a bit more positive outlook expected, and stabilization.

Can you just talk about the current dynamics and why you seem to differ in your view?

Secondly, just on your outlook for sales and marketing investments, particularly with regard to the US, can you just give us a sense of where the priorities are, what are the big activations, and do you commit to improving your market share performance in 2016 there?

Thanks.

In terms of China, what we said in our outlook is that we expect industry volumes to remain under pressure in 2016, but we expect our volumes to perform better than the industry, as we have the last few years, driven by the fact that we are heavily skewed towards premium and super-premium brands.

Industry in China was 6% down in the year last year.

But as we said in our investor meeting in China, China is not about averages, averages can be misleading.

If you look at 2015, the segments, super-premium grew by 18%, that's the [c-mansment].

Premium grew by 9%, core plus grew by 3.8%, core and value declined by 10.8%.

That gives the 5.8% or 6% down for the industry in the fiscal year.

And, of course, more than half of our volume today, and growing, very different from the market, is in core plus, premium and super-premium.

That's why we have been able to gain share and increase our profitability, growing the top by 33%, top line by double digits, even in an industry where volumes are down by 6%.

So, we think that the blue collar consumer is under pressure, not the service sector type consumer.

That is why, in our opinion, value and core segments are down.

But, core plus, super and super-premium are up.

And we are very happy to see that our business is more skewed toward those segments that are growing.

So, let's go where the growth is.

That is China.

In terms of the US, sorry, could you repeat what you asked about market share?

Yes.

It was just really, what are your priorities on sales and marketing investments in the US, and whether you can commit to a better market share performance in that market, or when do you expect to get close to stabilization in market share in the US.

Thanks.

What we know about the US is that some things are working, very important things, some others that also are very important are not yet there.

For example, Budweiser is negative yet, it is still negative, but it had its best year in decades.

Michelob Ultra, the biggest brand in terms of share gain in the US, a big brand.

Stella Artois, double digits growth.

Goose Island [on premise] gaining.

Craft gaining.

Bud Light has performed better.

The Rita Family has performed better.

But what we are doing in the US, because we're in this business for the long run, is that because now we have a portfolio that we feel that we have some winners, we're not only trying to fix the gaps we have, but we're also trying to feed the winners.

And I think one of the things that give me confidence on the direction we're proceeding in the US is a number that is not public to you, which is US gross profit.

But I can give you the deltas.

Since 2012, we have increased our gross profit margin by 1 percentage point from 12 to 13, another percentage point from 13 to 14%, and by 0.8 percentage point last year.

So, for me, that tells me that the mix is going the right direction.

The EBITDA is not having the same dynamics because we are investing out of the core because there's a mix shift in the US.

And as a market leader, we would like to continue to support the current segments in which we are strong, but also build our participation on the new emerging segments.

So, we have a little bit of an overlap there in terms of marketing investment, but that's for a better future in which we have a more balanced portfolio.

So, gross profit gives me the perception or the idea or the certainty that we are moving in the right direction.

Thanks.

And just a quick follow-up on dividends, the payout ratio moving up to 76%.

Are you able to, or do you feel confident, in being able to maintain that payout ratio going forward?

Our dividend policy has never changed and it was never based on the [operations space].

It is much more based on yield, between 3% and 4%, and growing dividends.

I think that is where we are right now.

We are between 3% and 4% depending on the share price you get.

I think we are doing that because, if you look at our cash flow from operating activities, despite global currencies, despite everything, despite investing more in marketing and all that, we generated the same $14.1 billion that was generated last year, 2014.

In 2014 we generated cash flow from operating activities $4.144 billion [sic -- $14.144 billion -- see press release], and in 2015 we generated $14.121 billion.

So, we're able, with our discipline and focus on financial metrics and execution to generate the same cash flow despite investing more in the market and continue to grow dividends.

Great.

Thanks.

Trevor Stirling, Bernstein.

Good morning, Brito and Felipe.

First question from my side in terms of Bud Light, can you give us a bit more color on what the plans are on Bud Light?

And what gives you the confidence that the Wieden & Kennedy work is going to succeed where the previous agencies didn't really deliver what you wanted?

Yes, that's a very good point.

Bud Light is the one that really we need to get to a better place because we have lots of things working in the US.

Bud Light, if we can stabilize the brand before it even grows, it could be a big plus.

Bud Light, for example, let me talk about Super Bowl because I had some questions around that today during media interview and all that.

On the Super Bowl, we kicked off our new campaign.

And we have very positive consumer feedback.

Not only have we had millions of impressions and earned media, social mentions and all that, but, more importantly, in several brand measures -- like purchase intents, helps me make a good impression, brings people together, I like the direction the brand is moving -- there were statistically significant increases.

In terms of the Ace Score, which is a score that lots of companies use to measure effectiveness of media, it was the highest score we've achieved for total Anheuser-Busch in the past three years with beer drinkers ages 21 to 35.

Even more than the Lost Dog from Budweiser from last year's Super Bowl.

Again, this is only a piece of the puzzle.

I think the other exciting thing about Bud Light, the whole thing about the visual identity, that we are going to change beginning now in April, I think it will bring back some of the things that made Bud Light an 18%, 19% share brand in the US, like, quality and heritage cues, and things that we are missing in the last, back, that has been there for eight years now.

I think it was time for a refresh.

Wieden & Kennedy is an amazing creative agency.

They are one of the few ones that are truly independent.

And they have really good people that challenge you, that bring new ideas.

And that's what we think for a brand like Budweiser that has always been creating culture in terms of being funny but smart funny, and we want to go back to that.

It really made the brand big.

And they get that, they understand that.

Of course, the campaign is not going to turn the brand on a dime or overnight.

But, Wieden & Kennedy is an agency that we've been looking and trying to get on our side for a long time, and finally we're there.

Again, they're not going to make any miracles but we're very happy in working together with them with Bud Light.

So, we're very hopeful that this is the beginning of a new future with Bud Light.

Thank you, Brito.

And my follow-up question is concerning Brazil.

Can you tell us what the outlook is for excise taxes in Brazil?

With government budget balances that must be under a lot of pressure.

Yes, Brazil is having a tough time.

They had a tough time in 2015.

We're saying it's going to be a tough year in 2016.

In terms of excise for beer, there was a new model that was approved last year, and there's already a tax increase scheduled for 2016, 2017 and 2018.

So, we already had a change.

We continue to think that, in terms of federal excise, because the model has just changed, we would like to think, and we're talking to the government all the time, that it makes sense to keep it this way because, again, we continue to invest in the Brazilian economy, we continue to create jobs, and consumers are already under pressure, and we already gave our fair share.

If you look at taxation for Brazilian beer, that is one of the highest in the world.

So I think, we already paid our fair share.

The different thing in Brazil, of course, is that each state of the 27 states have their own value-added tax, as well.

Some states, like Sao Paulo, have already increased.

That's an important state.

Some others increased but much less than they had previously announced, so that was good.

But we will have to be vigilant in talking to them and trying to demonstrate that if it is all about tax collection, not about tax rate, they should look at the overall picture, not only about the tax rate.

And I think the governments in Brazil understand that.

But, again, it's going to be a tough year in Brazil.

We are not trying to predict anything.

We're just saying we are very active in that front.

Thank you very much, Brito.

Brett Cooper, Consumer Edge Research.

A quick question on the US.

We've seen in the past some of your efforts, whether it's Budweiser, Bud Light, the near beer or craft, some succeed, some fail in any given year.

What gives you the confidence that this year you can manage all those so that we can continue to see improvements in Budweiser while you improve the trend of Light, as an example?

Thanks.

Brett, your voice was a bit muffled so can you repeat the question?

Maybe you are too close to the mike.

I don't know what is going on.

Sure.

My question is with respect to all the efforts in the US.

We've seen in the past, when you succeed in certain areas, say, the improvement in Budweiser, you seem to fall off in places like Bud Light.

So, what changes in 2016, or what gives you confidence that you get all parts of the portfolio moving in the right direction?

I think one thing that is different about 2016 is that we have more clarity in our priorities and we are working with more closely with wholesalers.

I think that makes a big difference.

[globe on Eurozone] present there, has still a lot of emphasis in working with our partners, our wholesalers.

The wholesalers, they are an amazing asset in the marketplace.

They have an amazing penetration in the market.

Joao has been doing a lot of the planning, including parts of the plan in terms of route to market with the wholesalers panel.

So, I think that's a big difference, as well.

And in terms of Budweiser, we will continue with the voice of the brand.

The brand struck a chord with consumers in terms of the Brewed the Hard Way.

Interesting enough, the last Super Bowl, Super Bowl 50, the drunk drive message, or the, simply put ads, Budweiser was the highest scoring add from all of the ads we had in Super Bowl.

And, again, we will scale up on successful programs like Bud and Burgers that proved to be very effective during the summer.

And Bud Light, again, I just answered the prior question, you have visual identity, new campaign, new agency.

So, we're very excited about it.

And the debut of the new campaign was during Super Bowl.

So those two brands are, of course, our bread and butter, but the high end is growing fast, Michelob Ultra is a core plus, but also Stella, Goose Island, and the other crafts.

So, those are the things we need to get working at the same time.

There's a lot of things working together now, we just need to add Bud Light to that group.

Great, thank you.

Chris Pitcher, Redburn.

It's a question on your sales and marketing outlook for this year, briefly.

You're talking about a high-single, low double-digit increase, which is $600 million to $800 million, that sort of range.

Should we expect a disproportionate amount of that to be going into the United States?

And can you give us a feel for how you are monitoring the effectiveness of that?

If in two years the market share gains haven't improved, do you feel like you are over-investing, or do you feel like this rate of investment now in the US is the new normal for competing as people become more brand focused and [pork bellies] become more fragmented?

Chris, you've know us for a long time.

You know we're about metrics and we measure everything in the business.

We gave the guidance of high single to low double digits in terms of sales and marketing.

We're doing that because we believe that there are opportunities that we should not pass.

And in terms of crisis in some countries, that is when we feel even more excited about investing because that's when competition normally takes the foot off the pedal.

In our history, we've seen many times when we either penetrated or acquired businesses during tough times in some countries where everybody was exiting, or when we pressed the pedal harder when everybody was taking their foot off the accelerator.

And in terms of the US, again, as I was saying a couple questions before, what gives me the certainty that we are on the right traction, is that when I look at the US gross profit, a number that you don't have access to unless you go to the AmBev, you take Canada.

You can get there.

But US gross profit has been expanding by 1 percentage point every year since 2012.

For me that tells me that the portfolio is getting more premium, that consumers are paying more for beers.

It also tells us that we're in that point where I'm not taking money from the base.

I'm adding money to get the momentum going on some new, emerging segments -- that, of course, will not be there forever -- to get some critical mass and some momentum.

Interesting also to say, it is in our press release, that the guidance for sales and marketing, high single to low single digits, is weighted more towards the first half of the year.

That's important, just not to forget.

But, again, were very excited about the opportunities we see.

Were in the kind of business, Chris, that, it is still, in many respects, in many brands, many countries, too far away from saturation point.

Therefore, the more we invest, the more we get on top line.

Sometimes, yes, we invest a little bit ahead of the curve because we look at long term, as well.

So, we're trying to be long term as well as managing the short term.

The US is no different.

It is our main market in terms of dollar cash flow, very important.

And we will continue to invest behind it, as well as other markets in our global brands.

Thank you.

I've got a slightly tangential follow-up question.

Obviously you're helping fund investments through some excellent working capital improvements.

If you look AmBev level, there was a significant improvement on payable.

Could you give us a bit of a feel for what's going on there, Felipe?

And then when you're in China, you said China was up 45% of sales, working capital.

Is it still around that level and the rest of the business is starting to catch up?

I'm just trying to get a bit more of a feel there.

Thank you.

China continues to lead the way, which is a good source of inspiration and benchmark for the other zones.

Other zones are catching really fast, Europe, so on and so forth.

America are more on the bottom of the pack but also progressing quickly.

And Brazil is in that space, as well.

So, we continue to see room for overall progress.

Last year we reached a negative 12.1.

We are always raising the bar and may pull higher.

And, we believe there is still room for growth.

Thank you.

Anthony Bucalo, HSBC.

Brito, on US wholesaling, where are we in terms of the evolution on wholesaler consolidation or branch strategy or exclusivity strategy?

Have there been any major changes in strategy or its approach over the last year or so?

No, what we said is that WOD is something we like to have some.

Today our volume is around 8% done through WODs.

We think it serves the purpose of getting our people closer to the marketplace, and also being able to train our people closer to the retailers and the trade in general.

I think that is good not only because it gets us to get to know the market better, our competition better, but also in the dialogue with wholesalers it makes it more effective at dialogue because we know the reality they face every day.

We've operating WODs for more than 50 years.

We feel that's part of our business.

We also feel it is totally in line with our support of the three-tier system.

What Joao Castro Neves is doing in the US now is trying to work much closer with the wholesalers in terms of planning of our route to market and activities in terms of the next year, next few years.

And the Winning Together program that he put in place, or mindset, we think is working very well.

So, I think that is a change, if you will.

Other than that, it's business as usual.

Wholesale is expected, we provide them a great portfolio of brands, we expect them to build brands with us, and that we compete effectively in the marketplace.

So, no change there.

Okay.

What about exclusivity, Brito?

Anything there?

Anything changing there at all?

No.

We've had this program VAIP, voluntary alignment incentive program, that has been in place for 15 years.

We just came with a new version.

Like any program from time to time, you reinvent it, you renew it.

But it's the basic program that has been there for 15 years.

And, the name says it -- it is a voluntary program.

Okay.

Just one quick follow-up, Brito, on Bud Light, following up to Trevor's question, I think the positives of Bud Light are pretty obvious.

But when you're talking to your consumer, Bud Light market share slippage has now been going on for a few years.

What is the challenge for consumers?

Why is the brand losing market share?

And what key do you need to unlock to get that back on track?

First, I think, in a market as fragmented as the US, to have a brand with 18%, 19% market share is already an amazing thing in itself.

On the other hand, people want to grow.

Of course they all target the big guy with most of the share.

So, that is one thing.

I think the second thing is that, for a number of years, a few years, we have not afforded the brand, we have not given the brand the support an 18%, 19% share brand in the US market -- fragmented US and competitive fragmented US market -- deserves.

I think now we are beginning to rebuild that.

For example, Budweiser has always been very connected to culture and fun in a smart way.

At some point, it becomes fun but maybe in a more, not so smart way.

So, we're trying to recover that, because when we go back and see what made the brand what it is today, we're trying to recover not only the packaging and cues and communication, we're trying to recover a little bit of the, let's say, founders' spirit of the brand of 20-plus years ago.

So, I think that is what is happening.

We are very hopeful now.

In April we're going to have a new visual identity, a new campaign.

It's just the first step.

Was introduced at Super Bowl.

We had some very interesting comments from consumers.

As I just said, it was the highest ranking ad we have had in many years for total AB company.

And we're working with a great agency so I think it's all good.

And now we need to make it happen.

Okay.

Thank you.

Edward Mundy, Nomura.

Since the announcements of the proposed combination with SAB, you've had three months to work on the integration planning.

Given the increasingly tough macro in many of SAB's core markets, are you more or less excited about the combination and the opportunity for value creation?

I'm more excited because, first, the results organically have been better.

Second, I've had a chance through the integration planning to get to know a bit more their markets, of course within the rules of what is allowed to be shared.

I've met some of their people through the integration planning.

I'm more excited because, first, the results are better; second, they are in very interesting markets, global markets.

They have some very strong brands, some great people that are in that.

And currency, it's something that will be happening with the deal or without the deal.

Of course, it bothers you in the short term but in the long term, currency is the same way -- they go, they come.

We come from Brazil, many of us, Latin American, and we are, in a way, used to it.

Again, if you look at last year cash flow from operating activities, even with all currencies and everything, more CapEx investment, more marketing investments, we delivered the same cash flow from operating activity, $14.1 billion.

We try to be disciplined.

We try to find non-working moneys to put to work.

So, I'm more excited now than I was before.

And as you look at the synergy opportunity of $1.4 billion, that's on a subsidiary revenue base of $16 billion.

You just delivered $1 billion on a revenue base of $4 billion from Modelo.

Are you still confident that $1.4 billion is the right number?

Yes, $1.4 billion is the number that we have out there, the number we committed.

That is the number we have, yes.

Thanks.

And as a follow-up, just coming back to the dividend question again, could you comment on how you plan to balance deleveraging post-the combination of SAB and your aspiration for a dividend yield of 3% to 4%?

We've said, when we announced the transaction, that the dividend policy would be kept.

And that was one of targeting yields between 3% and 4%, growing dividends.

We're very disciplined in terms of our messages and that is what we tend to do.

Great.

Thank you.

Mark Swartzberg, Stifel Nicolaus.

First question on n Brazil, Brito, is, I think your market share is down, approaching 100 bps, calendar 2015 on calendar 2014.

And I know 2015 was a year focused on profitability.

But even sequentially you had an improvement in the third quarter and I think that reversed in the fourth quarter.

Could you just speak a little bit about how enduring this share erosion is, what brand you think it is particularly an issue for?

And then, this is very secondhand, I don't know that it is worth much of a response from you, but it seems that there may be an issue with ingredients in corn, that is an issue among some consumers of some of your brands down there more recently.

So, if that is relevant to the larger to, that would be great.

Our market share in the year was 67.5% according to Nielsen.

That's within our 67% to 69%.

As you said, last year was a year of margins and profitability, so nothing strange when you're having the share more towards the bottom of the range.

We have had this range now for, I don't know, over 15 years and it is always the same story.

We bounce back when we get to, say, 67.5%, we go up to 69% and come back.

That's pretty much how we operate, always trying to balance market share, profitability, tax increases, inflation, all the things that we have to balance, especially when inflation is up and the countries going through tough economic situations.

So, I don't see any issues there.

I don't think this thing of corn or anything has anything to do with it.

I think that is chatter.

If you look at the health of our brands in Brazil, they do very well.

If you look at Skol, our number one brand there, had an amazing year.

If you look at our premium brands, had also an amazing year, including the global brands.

So, I don't see anything in terms of the health of the brands that would say anything other than we are very strong, and this market share is based not only on the execution but also on consumers' pooling and like our brands.

Having said that, market share does come up and down depending on the year, depending on the quarter, yes.

Okay, great.

Felipe, you mentioned understandably that your tax rate guidance doesn't have any effect for the SAB transaction.

But you also mentioned this topic of deductibility of a portion of the purchase price.

If that is something you are ultimately going to get -- and I realize you are evaluating that -- is it reasonable to expect you'd communicate on that simultaneous with closing on the transaction?

A quarter or so after closing on the transition?

I'm just trying to get a sense of when we might get clarity on your expectations on that topic.

I believe when we get closer to the closing of the transaction we should have a much better view, and then moving to some sort of guidance that is thinking toward the Combined Company.

For now we conservatively prefer not to assume any deductibility on this pre-funding $400 million cost, but we continue to work on it, and continue to work with SAB planning for the integration for when and if we have, and we will get regulatory approval.

It is expected for the second half of the year.

So, at that point, yes, we hope to be able to share with the market more colors on this round.

Fair enough.

Great.

Thank you, gentlemen.

Our final question comes from Tristan van Strien with Deutsche Bank.

First, as a follow-up on Chris's cash flow question earlier, your working capital had a nice $1 billion swing in your favor, which seems to be related to the timings of your capital expenditures tables of those.

So, since this is a timing issue, is that something you expect to reverse next year, or is that something you keep hold on when we look at your working capital next year?

And then, actually, my question was more on Mexico.

When I back out your synergies this year and the last quarter, I see contraction above your margin as well as your EBITDA despite a very strong organic revenue line.

So, when we think about next year, the higher sales and marketing costs you had this year, as well as the transactional FX impact you had this year, should we expect the same next year when we don't have these synergies anymore?

Thanks.

In terms of the working capital, we've been on this journey since 10 years now, or 9 years.

And the last few years we have been capturing $1 billion, $1 billion-plus per year, in terms of change in working capital.

I think that continues a trend.

We're getting closer to that 16% that we have as a target.

So I don't think there's anything there that -- it was a better year.

Of course, we had to get more disciplined because we wanted to continue with our activities despite the currency.

So, maybe we look for more opportunities in a more intense way.

What is happening that you have to also think about, in your second question, is that Bud Light is on fire, and a lot of it because of capacity in Mexico.

Remember, we are building a new brewery in the Yucatan peninsula for 5 million hectoliters We're bringing Bud Light to the US, a lot of it.

So, that is impacting our costs.

There is also still some marketing to fuel the brand growth.

The EBITDA growth, from the numbers I have here, was 368, [stages] was 210.

So, there was an EBITDA growth of 158 despite the logistics cost of Bud Light and despite some capacity constraints in Mexico that's forcing us to transport product from different breweries far away to make up for the fact that we don't have the capacity we need in Mexico, and the fact that it's not always possible to predict 100% of what the market demand will be for different [tax].

So, I think in Mexico, as we get that capacity in line, the possibility should take care of that.

Just to follow-up on Bud Light in Mexico, then, once you start getting more into local production you'll be looking more returnables?

Or does Bud Light remain a one-way pack in that market?

They have both.

(inaudible) is a one-way pack.

Now, in the north of the country, you already have the returnable.

Thank you very much.

Jacki, I think that's it.

Let me just say a couple words here.

Once again, thank you for joining the call today.

2015 was a strong year in terms of top-line and EBITDA growth, despite the challenging macroeconomic environment in a number our markets, particularly Brazil and China.

Currency has also posed a challenge.

But disciplined attention to detail helped us deliver another robust cash flow result.

Our none priority will always be the organic growth of the business and especially top-line growth.

But we're also very excited about the proposed combination with SAB and working hard to close the transaction the second half this year.

I look forward to talking to you again in early May when we report first-quarter results.

Thank you, and have a great rest of the day.

Thank you.

Bye.

Thank you.

This does concludes today's teleconference and webcast.

Please disconnect your lines at this time.

And have a wonderful day.