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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Peabody quarter two 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.
大家好,歡迎參加 Peabody 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意,本活動將被錄音。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Kala Finklang. Please go ahead.
現在我想把電話會議交給 Kala Finklang。請開始。
Kala Finklang - Vice President, Investor Relations & Corporate Communications
Kala Finklang - Vice President, Investor Relations & Corporate Communications
Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for Peabody's second-quarter 2026 earnings call. Joining me today are Peabody's President and CEO, Jim Grech; Chief Financial Officer, Mark Spurbeck; and Chief Commercial Officer, Malcolm Roberts. After our prepared remarks, we will open up the call for questions.
謝謝,接線員,各位早安。感謝各位參加 Peabody 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有 Peabody 總裁暨執行長 Jim Grech;財務長 Mark Spurbeck;以及商務長 Malcolm Roberts。在我們的準備發言之後,我們將開放提問。
Before we begin, I want to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements. Please review the full statement contained in our earnings release and consider the risk factors referenced there, along with our filings with the SEC.
在開始之前,我想提醒各位,我們今天的發言將包含前瞻性陳述。請查閱我們財報新聞稿中的完整聲明,並考量其中提及的風險因素,以及我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的文件。
I'll now turn the call over to Jim.
我現在把電話交給 Jim。
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Kala, and good morning, everyone. Peabody delivered on a number of important accomplishments during the second quarter while continuing to manage through some near-term operating and cost challenges. Most importantly, we maintained our focus on safety across the portfolio, which remains the foundation of everything we do.
謝謝你,Kala,各位早安。Peabody 在第二季達成多項重要成果,同時也持續因應一些短期的營運與成本挑戰。最重要的是,我們在整個資產組合中持續聚焦安全,這仍是我們一切工作的基礎。
During the quarter, we also made meaningful progress on a number of key priorities. At the Centurion Mine, we are now approaching targeted production levels. I'll provide (technical difficulty) Centurion in a moment.
本季我們也在多項關鍵優先事項上取得實質進展。在 Centurion 礦場,我們目前正接近目標產量水準。我稍後將提供(技術問題)關於 Centurion 的更新。
Our seaborne thermal operations delivered on volumes and costs, supported by strong execution despite the higher fuel cost environment. We completed multiple strategic financial actions that further strengthened our capital structure, lowered our interest expense, freed up restricted cash and effectively returned cash to shareholders. Mark will provide more detail on these actions shortly, but I'll steal part of his thunder and note that we have effectively repurchased 5 million shares.
我們的海運動力煤業務在出貨量與成本方面均達成目標,在燃料成本較高的環境下,仍憑藉強勁執行力獲得支撐。我們完成多項策略性財務行動,進一步強化資本結構、降低利息費用、釋放受限制現金,並有效地將現金回饋給股東。Mark 很快會就這些行動提供更多細節,但我先搶先透露一下:我們已有效回購 500 萬股。
In addition, Peabody was selected by the Department of Energy for a grant to advance rare earth element and critical mineral development opportunities in the Powder River Basin. This recognition reinforces the strategic value of our existing asset base and the opportunities to unlock value beyond our core coal mining business.
此外,Peabody 獲美國能源部選定提供補助,用以推進粉河盆地(Powder River Basin)稀土元素與關鍵礦物的開發機會。這項肯定再次凸顯我們既有資產基礎的策略價值,以及在核心煤礦業務之外釋放價值的機會。
At the same time, the quarter included several challenges. In US thermal, volumes were impacted by the extended shoulder season in the Powder River Basin and heavy rainfall across the Midwest. In seaborne metallurgical, costs were temporarily elevated by commissioning-related spend at Centurion. And as expected, we faced some of the highest fuel costs in years.
同時,本季也包含若干挑戰。在美國動力煤方面,粉河盆地延長的淡季(肩季)以及中西部地區的強降雨影響了出貨量。在海運冶金煤方面,Centurion 的投產(commissioning)相關支出使成本短期上升。而且如預期,我們面臨多年來最高水準之一的燃料成本。
Bottom line, $24 million of adjusted EBITDA is nowhere near the type of quarter that this platform is capable of or that we expect going forward. And overall, we exited the quarter with improving operational momentum, a stronger financial foundation and continued confidence in the long-term value of our diversified portfolio.
總而言之,調整後 EBITDA 為 2,400 萬美元,遠遠不是這個平台所能達成、或我們對未來所預期的季度表現。整體而言,我們在季度末展現出改善中的營運動能、更強健的財務基礎,並持續對多元化資產組合的長期價值保持信心。
With that, let me provide a more detailed update on Centurion. The primary challenge that we addressed was realignment of shields that have been impacted by the roof conditions we encountered due to the longer-than-planned commissioning period. This shield alignment process was laborious and time-consuming and more expensive than we expected, but it is now behind us. The longwall is in excellent shape and remaining roof control issues are largely limited to a rock faulting zone spanning about 20% of the longwall face that we will continue to work through during the third quarter.
接下來,我將就 Centurion 提供更詳細的更新。我們所處理的主要挑戰,是因為投產期比原先規劃更長,導致在所遭遇的頂板條件影響下,支架需要重新校正對位。這項支架對位流程繁瑣且耗時,成本也高於預期,但目前已經完成。長壁採煤面(longwall)狀況極佳,剩餘的頂板控制問題大多侷限於一段岩層斷層帶,約占長壁工作面 20%,我們將在第三季持續處理。
I'll also note that run-of-mine production, prep plant yields and rail shipments have all strengthened in recent weeks. Given where we are against plan, we are targeting 1.5 million to 2 million tons of sales in the second half with 500,000 to 700,000 tons expected this quarter, factoring in anticipated shipping schedules. Our focus now is on safely accelerating production rates and improving consistency. As this occurs, we expect the elevated cost of the first half to begin to trend more in line with long-range projections as we move through the second half of the year.
我也要指出,近幾週原煤(run-of-mine)產量、選煤廠回收率以及鐵路出貨量都已提升。依照我們目前相對於計畫的進度,我們目標在下半年實現 150 萬至 200 萬噸銷售量,其中本季預計 50 萬至 70 萬噸,並已納入預期的運輸排程。我們目前的重點是,在確保安全的前提下加速產量提升並改善穩定性。隨著這些改善發生,我們預期上半年偏高的成本將在下半年逐步回落,更貼近長期預測水準。
It's worth recounting the extraordinary potential represented by Centurion. It's the highest quality coking coal product in the world. Its projected long-term cost structure is first quartile for this type of coal, further expanding margins and has a 25-year mine life that further solidifies Centurion's role as Peabody's cornerstone asset in Australia. That's a summary of Centurion's progress. Given the importance of the mine to the portfolio, we'll look to provide updates to the market in both August and September, ahead of the next earnings review.
值得再次強調 Centurion 所代表的非凡潛力。它是全球品質最高的煉焦煤產品。其預估的長期成本結構位於同類煤種的第一四分位數,進一步擴大利潤空間,且擁有 25 年礦山壽命,進一步鞏固 Centurion 作為 Peabody 在澳洲的核心基石資產地位。以上是 Centurion 進展的摘要。鑑於該礦對資產組合的重要性,我們預計在下一次財報檢視之前,於 8 月與 9 月向市場提供更新。
Beyond our core business, our Peabody Development Group continues to advance multiple initiatives and opportunities we have to develop rare earth elements and critical minerals from our extensive asset base. We were honored to receive a conditional award from the US Department of Energy to demonstrate the feasibility of recovering rare earth elements from coal-related feedstocks. Our work on rare earth elements extends across multiple mining operations and includes several initiatives beyond the projects supported by the DOE award.
在核心業務之外,我們的 Peabody 開發團隊持續推進多項計畫與機會,從我們廣泛的資產基礎中開發稀土元素與關鍵礦物。我們很榮幸獲得美國能源部的附條件獎助,用以驗證從煤相關原料中回收稀土元素的可行性。我們在稀土元素方面的工作涵蓋多個礦區營運,並包含若干不僅限於能源部獎助所支持專案的計畫。
In critical minerals, we continue to make encouraging progress in our expanded exploration and evaluation of germanium across our existing operations. We're working with leading process technology partners and an industrial consumer of germanium to demonstrate technical and commercial feasibility with the objective of establishing domestic production and creating a new high-value revenue stream for Peabody. Each of these opportunities is viewed through a capital-light prism aiming to work with partners, create new pathways for Peabody growth and further monetize our resource base.
在關鍵礦物方面,我們在既有營運中擴大對鍺(germanium)的勘探與評估,並持續取得令人鼓舞的進展。我們正與領先的製程技術合作夥伴以及一家鍺的工業終端用戶合作,以驗證技術與商業可行性,目標是建立國內生產,並為 Peabody 創造新的高價值營收來源。我們以輕資本(capital-light)的視角評估每一項機會,致力與合作夥伴共同推進,為 Peabody 開創新的成長路徑,並進一步將我們的資源基礎變現。
While we are highly focused on near-term execution, I'd also like to take a step back for a minute and note that we have spent the last several years building a platform from which to generate meaningful shareholder returns for many years to come. This platform includes flagship operations in our seaborne met, seaborne thermal and US thermal businesses, sustainable operations with a number of capital-light extension projects progressing in Australia, a fortress balance sheet with a capital structure built for the long haul, a portfolio positioned to benefit from mid-cycle seaborne thermal and metallurgical pricing and several early-stage initiatives within Peabody development that add important growth optionality. We look forward to delivering the earnings and cash flow generation capabilities of our platform in the future.
雖然我們高度聚焦於短期執行,我也想退一步指出:過去幾年,我們一直在打造一個平台,未來多年可望持續為股東創造可觀回報。這個平台包括:我們海運冶金煤、海運動力煤與美國動力煤業務的旗艦營運;在澳洲推進多項輕資本延伸專案的可持續營運;具備長期韌性的資本結構與堅實的資產負債表;一個可望受惠於海運動力煤與冶金煤中周期價格水準的資產組合;以及 Peabody 開發業務中若干早期階段的計畫,為成長提供重要的選擇權。我們期待未來展現本平台的獲利與現金流創造能力。
With that, I'll turn it over to Malcolm for a discussion of US and global market fundamentals.
接下來,我把時間交給 Malcolm,請他談談美國與全球市場的基本面。
Malcolm Roberts - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Malcolm Roberts - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Thanks, Jim. The second quarter saw continued strength in both seaborne metallurgical and thermal coal markets amid some softness in US thermal coal. Starting with seaborne metallurgical coal, prices reached a several year high in the second quarter with premium hard coking coal averaging $238 a ton, a 29% improvement over year ago levels. Driving that was steel demand that was good, but not great and a met coal supply picture that saw sharp tightening due to a tragic mine accident in China's Shanxi province.
謝謝,Jim。第二季海運冶金煤與海運動力煤市場持續走強,儘管美國動力煤略顯疲弱。先談海運冶金煤,第二季價格創下數年新高,優質硬焦煤平均每噸 238 美元,較去年同期水準提升 29%。推動因素包括鋼鐵需求表現不錯但稱不上強勁,以及冶金煤供給面因中國山西省一場悲劇性的礦難而大幅收緊。
That accident has led to widespread safety inspections and curtailed production in Shanxi, along with several other Chinese provinces that experienced a similar dynamic from less widely reported safety incidents. The actions of one province in China may not appear to be significant in the world market, but Shanxi produces more met coal than the entire seaborne met market and in fact, twice as much coal in total as the entire United States.
該事故導致山西展開大規模安全檢查並抑制產量,另外幾個中國省份也因較少被報導的類似安全事件而出現相同情況。中國單一省份的作為在全球市場上看似不大,但山西的冶金煤產量高於整個海運冶金煤市場;事實上,其煤炭總產量更是整個美國的兩倍。
The effects of production constraints have been stark. We estimate that 30 million tons of production were already taken out of supply in the second quarter compared with the seaborne market that only totals 85 million tons a quarter. Continued supply reductions are expected throughout the second half of the year.
產量受限的影響非常明顯。我們估計,第二季已有 3,000 萬噸產量自供給端被移除;相較之下,海運市場單季總量僅 8,500 萬噸。預期下半年供給仍將持續減少。
Switching to seaborne thermal coal markets. Demand remained strong throughout the second quarter due to strong coal fuel generation across multiple countries in Asia. Liquefied natural gas, the key competitor to seaborne thermal coal saw prices move higher because of ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Japan, Korea market LNG prices started the year in the $10 to $11 per MMBtu range. This soared to $24 to $25 per MMBtu and even now remain just below that mark.
接著談海運動力煤市場。由於亞洲多國燃煤發電強勁,第二季需求全程維持強勢。作為海運動力煤主要競爭品的液化天然氣(LNG),因中東持續衝突而價格走高。日本、韓國市場的 LNG 價格年初約在每 MMBtu 10 至 11 美元區間。其後飆升至每 MMBtu 24 至 25 美元,即使目前也仍略低於該水準。
As we've seen so often, major events remind numerous countries why coal fuel generation is so reliable and affordable. The Iran conflict is no different. Seaborne thermal prices have responded to strong coal fuel generation. Newcastle 6,000 kcal product averaged $137 in the second quarter, more than 35% above prior year levels. We've also seen the lower heat API 5 product respond in a similar fashion.
我們一再看到,重大事件會提醒許多國家:燃煤發電既可靠又具成本效益。伊朗衝突也不例外。海運動力煤價格已對強勁的燃煤發電需求作出反應。第二季紐卡斯爾 6,000 kcal 產品平均價格為 137 美元,較去年同期高出逾 35%。我們也看到較低熱值的 API 5 產品以類似方式走強。
While seaborne thermal demand looks to remain strong as we move through the summer in the northern hemisphere, supply is likely to be constrained by Indonesian policy settings. Indonesia continues to tweak its policies relating to coal production, exports and domestic market obligations. Indonesia is the largest seaborne thermal coal exporter, yet we are hearing of rolling blackouts in Indonesia as coal fuel generators run short of coal. Indonesia's 2026 coal output is expected to be meaningfully lower than prior year levels.
雖然北半球進入夏季後海運動力煤需求看來仍將維持強勁,但供給可能受印尼政策設定所限制。印尼持續調整與煤炭產量、出口及國內市場義務相關的政策。印尼是全球最大的海運動力煤出口國,但我們聽到印尼因燃煤發電機組缺煤而出現輪流停電。預期印尼 2026 年煤炭產量將顯著低於前一年水準。
Shifting to US thermal coal markets. The demand picture was impacted by what seemed to be a four to five month spring in many parts of the country. 18 degree days were off sharply in the first quarter with a second quarter that was also mild. That led to natural gas prices that averaged 13% lower than the strong first half of 2025, driving some coal to gas switching. I will also note, though, that we've seen a return to what I would call longevity maintenance actions by a number of coal fuel plants in the US.
再看美國動力煤市場。需求面受到影響,因為全國許多地區似乎出現長達四到五個月的「春季」。第一季 18 度日(degree days)大幅下降,第二季也同樣溫和。這使得天然氣價格平均較 2025 年上半年強勢水準低 13%,帶動部分煤轉氣。不過我也要指出,我們看到美國多座燃煤電廠開始回到我所稱的「延壽維護」行動。
In prior years, maintenance outages were more modest given expected retirements. Why maintain a plant that's going out of service? Now though, we've seen a trend of plants taking longer seasonal outages to enable more comprehensive repairs and maintenance. Customers recognize that these plants may be operating for longer than originally expected. While those longer outages dampened the springtime coal loadings, they also set up for a stronger long-term thesis.
過去幾年,由於預期退役,維修停機相對較為有限。一座即將除役的電廠,何必投入維護?但現在,我們看到電廠趨勢是進行更長的季節性停機,以便進行更全面的修繕與保養。客戶認知到這些電廠的運轉時間可能會比原先預期更久。雖然較長的停機壓抑了春季的煤炭裝運量,但也為更強的長期投資論點奠定基礎。
Summer, of course, has now settled in across the US and grid statistics are showing the important role of coal-fired generation in meeting grid demand loads. We've begun to see an increased level of offtake in line with the established trend of recent years when July to December is the period where coal burn is at its strongest. That's a quick review of the markets.
當然,夏季如今已在全美各地到來,電網統計數據顯示燃煤發電在滿足電網負載需求方面扮演重要角色。我們已開始看到取貨量(offtake)增加,符合近年既有趨勢:7 月到 12 月是煤炭燃燒量最強的期間。以上是對市場的快速回顧。
Now over to Mark for a discussion of the financials.
接下來交給 Mark,請他說明財務表現。
Mark Spurbeck - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mark Spurbeck - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Malcolm, and good morning to all. For the second quarter, we reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $90.6 million or $0.74 per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA of $24 million. The quarter reflected significant progress at Centurion, strong seaborne thermal results and lower US thermal volumes. We also completed several strategic financial transactions to unlock shareholder value, which I will discuss in more detail after walking through the segment results.
謝謝你,Malcolm,也向各位道早安。第二季,我們報告歸屬於普通股股東的淨損為 9,060 萬美元,或稀釋後每股 0.74 美元;調整後 EBITDA 為 2,400 萬美元。本季反映出 Centurion 取得重大進展、海運動力煤表現強勁,以及美國動力煤銷量較低。我們也完成數項策略性財務交易以釋放股東價值;在我更深入說明之前,會先帶各位回顧各事業部門的表現。
The seaborne thermal platform shipped 3 million tons, in line with expectations and consistent with the first quarter. Export shipments totaled 1.9 million tons and the average realized export price of $95.87, increased 11.2% quarter-over-quarter and 31.6% compared to the prior year period. Segment costs of $58 per ton were at the low end of guidance, resulting in a 23% adjusted EBITDA margin and over $52 million of adjusted EBITDA.
海運動力煤平台出貨 300 萬噸,符合預期,且與第一季一致。出口出貨合計 190 萬噸,平均實現出口價格為 95.87 美元,較前一季增加 11.2%,較去年同期增加 31.6%。部門成本為每噸 58 美元,位於指引區間低端,使調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達 23%,調整後 EBITDA 超過 5,200 萬美元。
Seaborne metallurgical shipments totaled 2.5 million tons, exceeding expectations by 200,000 tons due to higher volumes from Metropolitan and the CMJV. Costs were above guidance at $155 per ton, primarily reflecting higher commissioning costs at Centurion. The segment reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17 million as higher Centurion costs were only partially offset by a 7% quarter-over-quarter improvement in realized pricing.
海運冶金煤出貨合計 250 萬噸,因 Metropolitan 與 CMJV 出貨量較高而超出預期 20 萬噸。成本為每噸 155 美元,高於指引,主要反映 Centurion 較高的投產(commissioning)成本。該部門調整後 EBITDA 虧損 1,700 萬美元,因 Centurion 成本上升僅部分被實現價格較前一季改善 7% 所抵銷。
Our US thermal business reported $19.8 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, marked by the extended shoulder season, which resulted in lower volumes across the platform. In the Powder River Basin, shipments totaled 16.4 million tons, significantly below our 19 million ton expectation as mild weather extended into June and coal generation plants undertook the extensive longevity maintenance that Malcolm noted. We kept a keen eye on labor efficiency and equipment utilization, moving an additional 11 million cubic meters of overburden uncovering additional coal.
我們的美國動力煤業務第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 1,980 萬美元,主要受延長的肩季影響,導致整個平台出貨量下降。在粉河盆地(Powder River Basin),出貨量合計 1,640 萬噸,顯著低於我們預期的 1,900 萬噸,因溫和天氣延續至 6 月,且燃煤發電廠進行 Malcolm 所提到的全面延壽維護。我們密切關注勞動效率與設備利用率,額外移除 1,100 萬立方公尺的覆蓋層(overburden),以揭露更多煤層。
The related costs naturally ran through second quarter results and temporarily increased unit cost to $14 per ton, but they will provide a significant benefit to costs for the rest of the year. In fact, we expect cost to be $2 lower or about $12 per ton in the third quarter. Other US thermal shipped 3 million tons, 400,000 tons below guidance, reflecting the extended shoulder season and heavy rainfall across the Midwest late in the quarter that delayed shipments. Despite lower volumes, costs were kept in line at $46 per ton, demonstrating focused disciplined cost control. The segment contributed $26.9 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter.
相關成本自然反映在第二季業績中,並使單位成本暫時提高至每噸14美元,但這些措施將在今年剩餘期間為成本帶來顯著效益。事實上,我們預期第三季成本將降低2美元,約為每噸12美元。其他美國動力煤出貨300萬噸,較指引少40萬噸,反映淡季延長,以及季末中西部地區強降雨延誤出貨。儘管出貨量較低,成本仍維持在每噸46美元,展現專注且嚴謹的成本控管。該部門本季貢獻調整後EBITDA為2,690萬美元。
Turning to the balance sheet and capital structure. At June 30, the company had over $500 million in cash and total liquidity over $900 million. In the second quarter, we completed several strategic financial transactions that unlock shareholder value, jump-start shareholder returns, lower borrowing costs and increased financial flexibility. First, we issued $250 million of convertible notes due 2031 with a 0.5% coupon and together with the related capped call transaction, established a conversion price of $50.61 per share.
接著談資產負債表與資本結構。截至6月30日,公司持有超過5億美元現金,總流動性超過9億美元。在第二季,我們完成數項策略性財務交易,以釋放股東價值、啟動股東回報、降低借款成本並提升財務彈性。首先,我們發行2.5億美元、2031年到期、票息0.5%的可轉換公司債,並搭配相關的上限買權(capped call)交易,將轉換價格訂為每股50.61美元。
Second, we utilized the net proceeds together with cash from the balance sheet to redeem $241.2 million of the 2028 convertible notes with a 3.25% coupon for cash consideration of $386.8 million. The $145.6 million premium paid with cash represents a share repurchase of more than 5 million shares using a weighted average price of $28.92 per share.
第二,我們運用淨募集資金並搭配資產負債表上的現金,赎回2.412億美元、2028年到期、票息3.25%的可轉換公司債,以現金對價3.868億美元完成。以現金支付的1.456億美元溢價,相當於以每股加權平均價格28.92美元回購超過500萬股。
The convertible note transactions increased the average conversion price on the convertible notes from $18.99 to $38.31 per share, reduced the diluted share count by 6.2 million shares and lower annual interest expense by $6.6 million.
上述可轉債交易將可轉債的平均轉換價格由每股18.99美元提高至每股38.31美元,使稀釋後股數減少620萬股,並將年度利息費用降低660萬美元。
Third, we significantly enhanced our global surety program. The financial profile built over the last several years provided for a transition to standard indemnification agreements, lower collateral requirements and the replacement of cash collateral with asset-backed facilities. These changes unlocked $350 million of restricted cash and collateral while maintaining one of the best well-collateralized reclamation bonding programs in the industry.
第三,我們大幅強化全球保證(surety)計畫。過去數年建立的財務體質,使我們得以轉換為標準賠償保證協議、降低擔保品要求,並以資產擔保融資工具取代現金擔保。這些變更在維持業界最佳、且具充分擔保的復墾保證金(reclamation bonding)計畫之一的同時,釋放了3.5億美元的受限制現金與擔保品。
Lastly, we increased our revolving credit facility to $400 million, extended the maturity to June 2030 and lowered borrowing costs by 25 bps. Year-to-date, we've generated $145.3 million of available free cash flow, including the reduction in restricted cash and collateral. We used $145.6 million for the convertible note repurchase premium and have also paid cash dividends of $18.3 million, bringing our payout ratio to greater than 100% through the first half of the year.
最後,我們將循環信用額度提高至4億美元,將到期日延長至2030年6月,並將借款成本降低25個基點。年初至今,我們已產生1.453億美元的可用自由現金流,其中包含受限制現金與擔保品的減少。我們使用1.456億美元支付可轉債回購溢價,並已支付1,830萬美元現金股利,使今年上半年股利支付率提高至超過100%。
Now for a quick look at the third quarter. We expect seaborne thermal volume of 3.0 million tons, including 1.9 million tons of export coal with a product mix of 1.1 million tons of Newcastle benchmark coal and 800,000 tons of higher ash coal that we sell at about a 10% discount to API 5. We expect costs of $52 to $57 per ton, a nice improvement quarter-over-quarter.
接著快速看一下第三季。我們預期海運動力煤銷量為300萬噸,其中包含190萬噸出口煤;產品組合為110萬噸紐卡索(Newcastle)基準煤,以及80萬噸我們以較API 5約10%折價出售的較高灰分煤。我們預期成本為每噸52至57美元,較上一季有不錯的改善。
For seaborne metallurgical, we expect volume of 1.9 million to 2.1 million tons as Metropolitan has a longwall move and a scheduled lock outage will reduce sales at Shoal Creek. Costs are expected to improve to $130 to $140 per ton, a $20 improvement compared to the second quarter as Centurion volumes increase.
海運冶金煤方面,我們預期銷量為190萬至210萬噸,因Metropolitan將進行長壁面搬遷(longwall move),且預定的停機檢修將降低Shoal Creek的銷售。隨著Centurion出貨量增加,成本預期改善至每噸130至140美元,較第二季改善20美元。
In the PRB, we anticipate shipments of 22 million tons at cost of $12, substantially improving margins and free cash flow from the segment. Other US thermal shipments are expected to increase to 3.7 million tons at an average price of $58.20 with costs at $45 to $49 per ton, in line with full year expectations.
在PRB(粉河盆地),我們預期出貨2,200萬噸、成本每噸12美元,將大幅改善該部門的利潤率與自由現金流。其他美國動力煤出貨預期增加至370萬噸,平均售價58.20美元,成本每噸45至49美元,符合全年預期。
In closing, Peabody exits the quarter with an even stronger financial foundation and tighter capital structure, poised to generate significant free cash flow as Centurion advances to expected production rates. Anticipation for a better second half and strong market fundamentals points to further support for our shareholder return program.
總結而言,Peabody在本季結束時具備更強健的財務基礎與更精實的資本結構;隨著Centurion推進至預期產量水準,公司有望產生可觀的自由現金流。對下半年改善的期待以及強勁的市場基本面,顯示我們的股東回報計畫將獲得進一步支撐。
With that, I'll turn the call back over to you, Jim.
接下來我把電話交回給你,Jim。
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Mark. As we move into the second half of the year, our focus is on execution, Centurion reaching targeted longwall production rates, US thermal positioned for stronger seasonal demand and our seaborne platform well placed amid constructive global markets. With improving operational momentum and a strong financial foundation, we believe our Peabody platform is well positioned to deliver improved results and create long-term value for shareholders.
謝謝,Mark。進入下半年,我們的重點在於執行力、讓Centurion達到目標長壁面產量水準、美國動力煤把握更強的季節性需求,以及在具建設性的全球市場環境下,讓我們的海運平台處於有利位置。隨著營運動能改善與穩健的財務基礎,我們相信Peabody平台具備良好條件,可交出更佳成果並為股東創造長期價值。
With that, operator, we are pleased to open up the call to questions.
接下來,接線員,我們很高興開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.
Nick Giles,B. Riley Securities。
Nick Giles - Analyst
Nick Giles - Analyst
Maybe just starting with Centurion. I was just hoping for more color to what extent the longwall is running today? I mean, how much stoppage is this rock faulting causing, or how are advance rates ultimately impacted here?
也許先從Centurion開始。我想再多了解一些,目前長壁面今天的運轉狀況到什麼程度?我的意思是,這個岩層斷層(rock faulting)造成多少停機,或最終對推進速度(advance rates)的影響如何?
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim here. Yes. So first, I'll give you a little background on the longwall and where it's at and then how it's running today. So the issue that we had that we talked about was the shields being out of alignment or sometimes it's called racking. And we have that issue behind us now. The longwall, the shields are straight and they're squared to the face. And so it's in good shape.
我是Jim。是的。首先,我先提供一些長壁面的背景、目前的位置,以及今天的運轉情況。我們先前提到的問題是支架未對齊,或有時稱為支架歪斜(racking)。而這個問題現在已經解決。長壁面的支架已拉直,並且與工作面成直角對正。因此目前狀況良好。
And it took a little longer than we thought it was going to be to address this issue. And again, just to give you maybe a little explanation what it is, a picture of what it is, is the shields themselves, if you can look at it as like a row of dominoes and then some of those dominoes got knocked over on top of each other, not all of them, but some of them. But each one of those dominoes weighs 53 tons.
處理這個問題花的時間比我們原先預期更久。再稍微解釋一下、也讓你有個畫面:支架本身如果把它想像成一排骨牌,其中有些骨牌被撞倒、彼此疊在一起,不是全部,但有一些。但每一塊「骨牌」重達53噸。
And so to straighten them out and do it safely, which is a hard thing to do with the weight of those shields underground, it took a little bit longer than we thought and through the month of June. So now that's done, a longwall square and it's running. So we're running right now when running -- it's running back and forth this year. And at times, we have stoppages to address the faulting that we have.
因此要把它們拉直並且安全地完成——在地下以這些支架的重量來操作是一件很難的事——花的時間比我們想像更久,並一路延續到6月。現在已經完成,長壁面已對正並在運轉。所以我們現在在運轉時——今年是來回運轉。而在某些時候,我們會停機以處理我們遇到的斷層問題。
Now to address the faulting, we've taken four different actions to address the faulting ahead of us. So we either do underground in-seam drilling to -- ahead of the fault inserting grout that way. We have drilling from the surface further away from the longwall face addressing the faulting that way. And then right at the face, if it's needed, there's a localized faulting at the face, we can do some geo-flexing right at the face or some rock sill right above the shield.
現在來談斷層問題,我們採取了四項不同的措施來因應眼前的斷層。我們可以在煤層內進行地下鑽孔——在斷層前方以這種方式注入灌漿。我們也會從地表、在距離長壁工作面較遠處鑽孔,以這種方式處理斷層。另外就在工作面,如果需要的話、若工作面有局部斷層,我們可以在工作面直接做一些地質柔化(geo-flex),或在支架上方做一些岩石墊層(rock sill)。
So the first two things that we do for the faulting are more in advance of the longwall and the other two with the geo-flex and rock sill are sort of like active mining zone with the longwall. So with that, and over the last two weeks, we've really picked up the pace on the longwall.
所以我們針對斷層所做的前兩項措施,是在長壁採煤前方較提前進行;而另外兩項——geo-flex 與 rock sill——則比較像是在長壁的主動採掘區域內進行。在這樣的情況下,過去兩週我們確實把長壁的進度加快了。
We have some days where we've run 7, 8 shears a day and some days where we're running 3 or 4 shears a day because we have that faulting to address. And that's where that consistency is that we're looking for to go forward is running at a steadier rate. And as we keep advancing through this faulted zone and running at a steadier rate, it really solves itself. The quicker you can move through it, the more shears per day that you can get done.
有些日子我們一天能跑 7、8 刀(shears),也有些日子因為要處理斷層,一天只跑 3 或 4 刀。而我們往前推進所追求的就是這種一致性——以更穩定的速度運行。當我們持續穿越這個斷層帶、並以更穩定的速率運行時,問題其實就會逐步自行化解。你越快穿過去,每天能完成的切割刀數就越多。
And so with that, looking at the faulting, the rate that we're going forward, having to stop occasionally to address the faults in front of us, that's where we've given that projection, that 500,000 to 700,000 tons for the third quarter because there is some variability not only on the speed or the number of shares per day, Nick, but also on the yield because when we hit in the faulting area, the yield goes down, we get more rock. So there's variability in both of those.
因此,綜合斷層情況、我們前進的速度,以及偶爾必須停下來處理前方斷層的需求,這就是我們給出第三季 50 萬到 70 萬噸預估的原因;因為不確定性不僅在於速度或每天的切割刀數,Nick,也在於回收率(yield),因為當我們進入斷層區時,回收率會下降、夾矸(岩石)會變多。所以這兩方面都有變動性。
And so we take that all into account, and that's how we came up with that projection. But again, the longwall phase has been in the best shape that it has been in since we started the mine, and we're out of the commissioning phase, and we're in the production phase now.
我們把這些都納入考量,這就是我們得出該預估的方式。但再說一次,長壁工作面目前的狀態,是自我們開始這座礦以來最好的一次;我們已經走出試運轉(commissioning)階段,現在進入生產階段了。
Nick Giles - Analyst
Nick Giles - Analyst
Jim, I really appreciate all that color. Apologies for my ignorance, but just to clarify. So the racking issue, was that ultimately caused by the faulting that you're running into? And then my second question was just, I think you answered it already, but how much visibility do you have quarters down the line that you won't run into this faulting zone again?
Jim,非常感謝你提供這麼多細節。抱歉我可能理解不夠,但我想確認一下。所以支架錯位(racking)問題,最終是因為你們遇到的斷層造成的嗎?第二個問題是——我想你其實已經回答了——你們對於未來幾個季度的能見度有多高,確定不會再遇到這個斷層帶?
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So your first question is, it was a continuation of the long commissioning, the slow start-up process. We started out with the electrical issues that were -- as we started the longwall, we had a series of electrical issues and had to shut down. It took us a while to address that. Then the longwall started running, we ran into a series of mechanical issues with belts and conveyors and transfer points.
是的。你第一個問題的答案是:那是長時間試運轉、緩慢啟動流程的延續。我們一開始在啟動長壁時遇到電氣問題——出現一連串電氣故障並不得不停機。我們花了一些時間才把那部分處理好。接著長壁開始運行後,我們又遇到一連串皮帶、輸送機與轉運點的機械問題。
All of that delay in the start-up and the longwall stopping and starting, Nick, is not good, especially in a new longwall mine and a new panel like we were. That led to making the situation degrade where the faulting is. If we would have just started up and ran and not had the delays at the start-up and had the normal advance rate, we wouldn't have had the conditions leading to needing the shield realignment.
所有這些啟動延誤,以及長壁反覆停停走走,Nick,這並不好,尤其是在新的長壁礦、以及像我們這樣的新工作面(panel)。這導致斷層區的狀況惡化。如果我們當初能直接啟動後持續運行、沒有那些啟動期延誤,並以正常推進速度前進,就不會形成需要進行支架重新對位(shield realignment)的條件。
And so now going forward, the conditions that we have are really specific to this panel and how we're looking at it. We have about 300 meters left in front of us of this faulted area, and it's in a very specific area between our Shields number 20 to Shield number 50. So we can see an end of sight to this faulting. It will be during the third quarter. And so we don't expect this in the fourth quarter. We have good geologic, good control, and we'll be out of this come the fourth quarter.
因此,往後看,我們目前面對的狀況其實非常特定於這個工作面,以及我們如何看待它。我們前方大約還有 300 公尺的斷層區,而且它位於非常特定的區段——大約在 20 號支架到 50 號支架之間。所以我們看得到這段斷層的盡頭。它會發生在第三季期間。因此我們不預期第四季還會有這個問題。我們有良好的地質資料與良好的控制,到了第四季我們就會走出這段區域。
Now because of that variability, Nick, in advance rates and yield because of the faulting is why we've said that we will also give out updates in August and September of how we're doing, right, to make it more accurate and to tighten those ranges up as we go forward.
另外,正因為斷層造成推進速度與回收率的變動性,Nick,這也是為什麼我們說會在 8 月與 9 月提供進度更新,對吧,讓預估更精準,並在往前推進時把區間收斂得更緊。
Operator
Operator
Matthew Key, Texas Capital Securities.
Texas Capital Securities 的 Matthew Key。
Matthew Key - Analyst
Matthew Key - Analyst
I had a question just kind of on PRB volume guidance. Based on where coal volume was in the first half of '26 and the guide in 3Q, it seems to achieve the midpoint of that range. It would imply a pretty impressive 4Q shipping quarter. Just given where natural gas prices are trading, is it safer to assume the lower end of that guidance, or are you pretty confident kind of going into that 4Q will be a strong quarter?
我有一個問題,主要是關於 PRB 的出貨量指引。根據 26 年上半年煤炭出貨量的表現,以及第三季的指引區間,看起來若要達到該區間的中位數,就意味著第四季的出貨將會非常亮眼。考量目前天然氣價格的交易水準,是否更安全的假設是採用指引的下緣?還是你們對於第四季會是強勁的一季相當有信心?
Malcolm Roberts - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Malcolm Roberts - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Malcolm here. Look, as I said in my remarks, the second half of the year and what we're looking at here, it doesn't seem that different to prior years. Obviously, gas price is a little lower. But if you look at the grid at the moment, coal has been called upon very heavily.
我是 Malcolm。你看,正如我在發言中提到的,我們對下半年以及目前所看到的情況,感覺與過去幾年並沒有太大不同。當然,天然氣價格稍微低一些。但如果你看目前的電網情況,煤電被大量調度使用。
So what we're looking to do in the second half of the year, probably is not much different if you overlay the pattern from '23 through '25. And probably quite rightly, you should be assuming the midpoint of the guidance range that you spoke to. That would be my response to that question.
所以我們下半年要做的事情,如果把 23 年到 25 年的型態疊加來看,可能差異不大。而且你大概也應該合理地假設你提到的那個指引區間的中位數。我對這個問題的回覆就是這樣。
Matthew Key - Analyst
Matthew Key - Analyst
And I was wondering, and you mentioned this a little bit in the prepared remarks, but I just wanted to talk about kind of capital allocation plans over the coming quarters. Do you think buybacks make sense kind of on the back of this pullback, or what are the major priorities for you in the second half of '26?
另外我也想請教——你在事先準備的發言中有稍微提到——我想談談未來幾季的資本配置計畫。在這波回檔之後,你覺得回購是否合理?或者你們在 26 年下半年的主要優先事項是什麼?
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Matt, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, continue to execute against our existing shareholder return program, pay out over 100% year-to-date, look to generate some substantial free cash flow in the second half of the year as Centurion achieves its targeted production rates. And we'll look to continue to execute against that shareholder return program.
是的,Matt,正如我在事先準備的發言中提到的,我們會持續執行既有的股東回饋計畫;年初至今的配發超過 100%;並且隨著 Centurion 達到其目標產量,我們預期在下半年產生可觀的自由現金流。我們也會持續推進並落實該股東回饋計畫。
We'll look at outright share repurchases. We'll also look at the remaining stub of the convertible notes depending on where they trade. We were able to buy those 241 million back at a very small premium, less than 4 points, I believe. And was pretty opportunistic in the sense that they had traded down significantly. So I think going forward, we'll execute against the program, and we'll look at both of those avenues.
我們將檢視直接的股票回購。我們也會視可轉換公司債剩餘的零星部位在市場上的交易價位而定,評估處理方式。我們得以用非常小的溢價把那2.41億買回來,我記得不到4個點。而且相當把握時機,因為它們的交易價格已經明顯下跌。所以我認為接下來我們會依計畫執行,並同時評估這兩條途徑。
Operator
Operator
Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.
Katja Jancic,BMO資本市場。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Maybe just quickly back to Centurion. Jim, you mentioned that you're going to provide updates in August and September. Can you maybe talk about when specifically we should be expecting those updates?
也許快速回到Centurion。Jim,你提到你們會在8月和9月提供更新。你能否談談我們應該在何時具體期待這些更新?
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Well, in August, for certain, we have a site tour out at Centurion on August 11. And there will be an update given at that site tour, which again, of course, which would be filed and made public information, which, by the way, we still have six spots left open on that site tour of Centurion. We got a very good response.
嗯,8月肯定會有,我們在8月11日會在Centurion安排一次現場參訪。而且在那次參訪會提供更新;當然,相關內容會提交申報並公開成為公開資訊。順帶一提,Centurion那次參訪還剩6個名額。我們收到非常好的回響。
So a little bit of -- you gave me a chance, Katja, to push that out there. So at that site tour, we'll give an update. And then we have some Investor Day. I'm not sure the specific dates off the top of my head in September, and we'll also give updates then.
所以有點——Katja,你給了我一個機會順便宣傳一下。所以在那次現場參訪,我們會提供更新。然後我們在9月還有一些投資人日活動。我一時想不起來具體日期,但我們也會在那時提供更新。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
And maybe staying on the site visit, I guess, you're going to take investors and analysts to actually see the longwall?
另外,延續現場參訪的話,我想你們會帶投資人和分析師實際去看長壁採煤面(longwall)嗎?
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. It's a great tour. You can -- the site, we'll show the longwall. We'll show the surface facilities. You'll see every piece of the mine -- operating piece of the mine that we have there.
會的。那是一個很棒的參訪。你可以——在現場我們會展示長壁採煤面。我們也會展示地面設施。你會看到我們在那裡礦場的每一個部分——所有正在運作的部分。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
And maybe shifting gears to the $350 million of restricted cash that was unlocked. Is there -- is that fully available right now, or are there any still restrictions to that -- to using that?
再換個話題,關於已解鎖的3.5億美元受限制現金。那筆資金現在是否已完全可用,或使用上仍有任何限制?
Mark Spurbeck - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mark Spurbeck - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Katja, the $350 million that was returned, it was really reclassed from restricted cash and collateral. So to your question, it is fully available. It's included in our cash balances as of June 30. Look forward to seeing you at the Centurion visit, Katja.
Katja,返還的那3.5億美元,其實是從受限制現金與擔保品中重新分類(reclass)出來的。所以回答你的問題:它現在完全可用。它已包含在我們截至6月30日的現金餘額中。期待在Centurion參訪時見到你,Katja。
Operator
Operator
Nathan Martin, The Benchmark Company.
Nathan Martin,The Benchmark Company。
Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst
Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst
Sticking with the restricted cash piece, Mark, a question for you. I mean, are there any more opportunities to unlock restricted cash, whether it be surety related or otherwise? It looks like there's still about $460 million or so left there on the balance sheet.
延續受限制現金這塊,Mark,我有個問題想請教你。我是說,是否還有更多機會可以解鎖受限制現金,不論是與保證金(surety)相關或其他原因?看起來資產負債表上大概還有約4.6億美元左右留在那裡。
Mark Spurbeck - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mark Spurbeck - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, Nate, we've pretty much done all the work we can there. We reduced the collateral significantly, went to an asset-backed facility in Australia and then reduced the collateral to about 40% in the US So I'm not looking for any more step changes there. I think we should probably look at this as kind of a permanent fix.
是的,Nate,我們基本上已經把能做的工作都做完了。我們大幅降低了擔保品,在澳洲改用資產擔保融資(asset-backed facility),然後在美國也把擔保品降到大約40%。所以我不預期那裡還會有更多階段性的重大變化。我認為我們大概應該把這視為一種較為永久性的調整。
Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst
Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst
And then going back to Centurion, I guess, have you guys noticed anything during the ramp-up stage now heading into the production stage at Centurion that makes you feel like you can't operate the mine at a cost per ton within your prior expectation? Jim, you talked about this a little bit in your comments, so just hoping to get a little bit more detail.
然後回到Centurion,我想問的是:你們在目前從爬坡(ramp-up)階段走向生產階段的過程中,有沒有注意到任何事情,讓你們覺得無法把該礦的每噸成本控制在先前的預期範圍內?Jim,你在評論裡稍微提到一些,所以希望能再多一點細節。
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
No, Nate, I'd say when we have been running well without an issue, I'd say it's the opposite. The rate that the shear can transit is as good or better than we thought it would be. So I'll say we have some optimism that once we get the steady-state running of the mine that we will be at that cost structure or possibly better. It's just getting from this commissioning phase now into the production and getting the steady-state production actually to see the results of that. But when we are running well, we run very well.
沒有,Nate,我會說當我們運轉順暢、沒有問題時,情況反而相反。剪煤機(shear)的通過速度跟我們原先想的一樣好,甚至更好。所以我會說,我們對於一旦礦場進入穩態運轉後,能達到那個成本結構、甚至可能更好,是抱持一些樂觀的。只是要從目前的試運轉(commissioning)階段,過渡到正式生產並達到穩態產量,才能真正看到結果。但當我們運轉良好時,我們的表現非常好。
Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst
Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst
And maybe just kind of one higher-level market question for Malcolm. Malcolm, maybe just get your thoughts on how you believe El Nino conditions or Super El Nino could impact Peabody and the broader coal markets.
再來是一個較高層次的市場問題,想請教Malcolm。Malcolm,想聽聽你對於你認為聖嬰現象(El Nino)或超級聖嬰(Super El Nino)可能如何影響Peabody以及更廣泛煤炭市場的看法。
Malcolm Roberts - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Malcolm Roberts - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Thanks for the question, Nate. I'll probably bifurcate the answer here for seaborne and then US domestic. Talking about seaborne, the biggest thing is drought, particularly in Asia and China. So we've seen very strong coal burn in China.
謝謝你的問題,Nate。我可能會把答案分成海運市場(seaborne)以及美國國內市場兩部分來談。先談海運市場,最大的因素是乾旱,特別是在亞洲與中國。所以我們看到中國的燃煤發電量非常強勁。
There's a lot of noise around how much coal China actually is consuming that they're consuming a hell of a lot of coal. And production at the moment isn't keeping up domestic production. So the main thing we've seen here with this weather pattern is that -- is the hydro production from the great river system in China is down. So that's having an influence.
外界對中國實際消耗多少煤有很多雜音,但他們確實消耗了非常大量的煤。而目前的產量跟不上國內需求。所以我們在這種天氣型態下看到的主要現象是——中國大型河川水系的水力發電量下降。因此這正在產生影響。
And then we're looking to Europe, and we're looking at a very warm summer in Europe, and we're seeing even increased coal generation in countries such as Germany. And then pretty much across North Asia, so you're talking Taiwan, Korea and Japan, we're also seeing strong coal burn as air conditioners are being turned on, and we expect them to stay on for some time.
接著我們看歐洲,歐洲正經歷一個非常炎熱的夏季,我們甚至看到像德國這樣的國家燃煤發電增加。然後幾乎整個北亞地區——也就是台灣、韓國與日本——我們也看到強勁的燃煤需求,因為空調正在開啟,而且我們預期會持續開一段時間。
And then, look, I'm in the US here and enjoying the warmth and looking at the grid pretty much across MISO and the like, we're seeing very strong coal loads and expect that to continue. So a good hot summer is really going to contribute to coal burn in the US And that's why I reiterated that I think the midpoint for PRB guidance is where people should be looking at it.
再來,你看,我人在美國,正在享受這股暖意;從MISO等電網的情況來看,我們看到非常強勁的燃煤負載,並預期會持續。所以一個炎熱的夏天確實會推升美國的燃煤量。
Hopefully, that gives you some color, Nate. Thanks for the question.
希望這能讓你更了解一些,Nate。謝謝你的提問。
Operator
Operator
George Eadie, UBS.
George Eadie,瑞銀(UBS)。
George Eadie - Analyst
George Eadie - Analyst
Perhaps for Jim, the 4.7 million tons life of mine average target and 105 cash cost, is that number still stale, I guess, more on the cost front, you called out in this update, supply and material pressures? How confident are you in this estimate still, or do you think it's still achievable when the tons come there? And maybe just a reminder as well, with Centurion, there's five panels in the south before you go north. So given this delay, is it still 2029 when you get to the north?
也許問Jim:礦山全壽命(life of mine)平均目標4.7百萬噸以及105的現金成本,這個數字是否仍然有點過時?我想主要是成本面,你在這次更新中提到供應與材料壓力。你對這個估算仍有多大信心?或者你認為當產量上來時仍可達成?另外也請提醒一下,Centurion在往北之前,南部有五個採煤面(panel)。所以在這次延遲之下,你們到達北部仍然是2029年嗎?
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
So yes, we still feel there's a couple of things you asked about there. The 4.7 million tons when we get to the steady state production, yes, we still feel that's a good number. And the 105 was a 2024 dollar number. So it does need to be escalated.
所以是的,我們仍然認為你在那裡問到的有幾件事。當我們達到穩態產量時的 470 萬噸,是的,我們仍然認為那是一個不錯的數字。而 105 是以 2024 年美元計的數字。因此確實需要做通膨/升級調整。
And again, when we get to the steady state production, we assume a normalization on -- not the diesel prices, but that big an impact there with that, some of those things that are -- we think are not standard impacts on the cost of supplies. Yes, we still feel good about both those numbers once we get to our steady-state production.
再說一次,當我們達到穩態產量時,我們假設會回歸常態——不是柴油價格本身,而是其中一些因素帶來的那麼大的影響——我們認為那些並非供應成本的常態性影響。是的,一旦我們達到穩態產量,我們對這兩個數字仍然很有信心。
And the delays you're talking about here are not significant over the 4 or 5 years that we have in the south here. So yes, to the extent that we're not going to mine the initial tons that we thought this year, that does tack on some time until we transfer to the Northern reserves. I mean, you're looking at months here, though, you're not talking years.
而你在這裡提到的延遲,在我們南部這邊的 4 到 5 年期間內並不顯著。所以是的,若我們今年無法開採原先預期的初期噸數,確實會在我們轉移到北部儲量之前多增加一些時間。不過我的意思是,你談的是幾個月,而不是幾年。
George Eadie - Analyst
George Eadie - Analyst
And then maybe just one more and, Mark, I guess, the buyback, why not go early like at spot and guidance, your available free cash should get to at least $50 million a quarter. Clearly, like, that's what investors are chasing and wanting here and sort of rereading the tech report like this appears to be the only really known concerning faulting zone, the outlook looks clearly better. Like why not go early before the stock potentially gets more expensive and buy out of this pullback given the balance sheet is in a pretty good state?
然後也許再問最後一個,Mark,我想是關於回購:為什麼不趁早、在現貨與指引的情況下就開始?你們可用的自由現金流應該至少能到每季 5,000 萬美元。很明顯,投資人正在追逐、也希望看到這個;而且重新讀技術報告後,看起來這似乎是唯一真正已知、令人擔憂的斷層帶,前景顯然更好。既然資產負債表狀況相當不錯,為什麼不在股價可能變得更貴之前,趁這次回檔先行進場回購呢?
Mark Spurbeck - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mark Spurbeck - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, George, we're going to continue to execute against the plan. We wouldn't foreshadow what we're going to do, of course, ahead of market conditions. We like where we're at today. We like how our execution on the converts, really opportunistic and bought those back at $140 million discount to where they previously traded. We'll continue to take opportunistic looks at this, and we'll continue to execute throughout the second half.
是的,George,我們會持續依計畫執行。當然,我們不會在市場條件之前預告我們將要做什麼。我們喜歡我們今天所處的位置。我們也喜歡我們在可轉債上的執行,確實很機會導向,並以較其先前交易水準折價 1.4 億美元的價格把它們買回。我們會持續以機會導向來檢視這些事項,並在下半年持續執行。
Operator
Operator
Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.
Nick Giles,B. Riley Securities。
Nick Giles - Analyst
Nick Giles - Analyst
Just wanted to clarify, the 600,000 tons of Centurion output in 3Q, how much of that is CM coal versus longwall coal? I assume there's a little bit of longwall coal at the end of the quarter, but I wanted to make sure we have that straight.
我想釐清一下,第三季 Centurion 產出 60 萬噸,其中有多少是 CM 煤、多少是長壁(longwall)煤?我猜在季末會有一點長壁煤,但我想確認我們的理解是正確的。
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. There is some CM coal in there. It's probably in the range of 150,000 tons, give or take.
是的。裡面有一些 CM 煤。大概在 15 萬噸左右,上下浮動一些。
Nick Giles - Analyst
Nick Giles - Analyst
And then as we look out to 2027, there was the longwall move that had been pushed out from the fourth quarter. So should we expect that move to occur in Q1? And what would be the kind of duration of that move?
然後展望到 2027 年,原本第四季要進行的長壁搬遷已經被往後推。所以我們是否應該預期那次搬遷會在第一季發生?而那次搬遷大概會持續多久?
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, we haven't given that specific guidance yet for '27 yet, Nick, and the timing of that longwall move. And we're also working on some ways to shorten the duration of that move based on what we've learned so far with the mine and accelerate it. So that move will occur in '27. But again, we're working on the timing of when that is and also the duration of it again, because we have some optimism that we can accelerate from what we thought before would be the length of the outage.
是的,Nick,我們還沒有就 2027 年提供那麼具體的指引,包括那次長壁搬遷的時點。我們也在研究一些方法,根據目前在礦場學到的經驗來縮短搬遷所需時間並加速進度。所以那次搬遷會在 2027 年發生。但同樣地,我們仍在推敲其發生時間點以及持續時間,因為我們有一些樂觀的看法,認為可以比先前預期的停產時間更快完成。
Nick Giles - Analyst
Nick Giles - Analyst
Understood. And maybe one more, if I could. Just on the rare earths piece. You mentioned a capital-light approach, bringing in some partners. Where do those potential partnerships stand? Do you have any that are kind of a non-binding nature? Or when should we expect more of an update on that front?
了解。如果可以的話我再問一個。關於稀土的部分。你提到採取輕資本(capital-light)的方式、引入一些合作夥伴。那些潛在合作目前進展到哪裡?是否有任何屬於非具約束力(non-binding)性質的?或者我們大概何時能期待在這方面有更多更新?
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I don't want to get too far into it because it's some proprietary information because we're in discussions. So when we have something that's solid with some detail behind it to answer the questions you're asking, we'll make those announcements.
是的。我不想談得太深入,因為我們正在討論中,這涉及一些專有資訊。所以當我們有更確定、且有足夠細節可以回答你所問問題的內容時,我們會發布相關公告。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Grech for any closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Jim Grech,請他做任何結語。
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Grech - President and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I'd like to remind everybody again that the August 11 tour at Centurion, there are some spots open and maybe some of these questions that have been asked today, we can have -- we should have more detail on. And if you're interested in going over to Australia or going out to our mine, you can contact our IR group and get on the list to go out there. So with that, thanks to everyone for your time today as well as your long-standing support. And we look forward to keeping you apprised of our progress at the investor events as the quarter proceeds. Thank you.
是的。我想再次提醒大家,8 月 11 日在 Centurion 的參訪行程目前還有名額,或許今天提出的一些問題,我們可以——我們應該能提供更多細節。如果你有興趣前往澳洲或到我們的礦場參觀,你可以聯絡我們的投資人關係(IR)團隊,登記加入名單。那麼,就此也感謝各位今天撥冗參與,以及長期以來的支持。隨著本季進行,我們也期待在投資人活動中持續向各位通報我們的進展。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
本次電話會議現在結束。感謝您參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。