Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Baytex Energy Corp. first quarter 2026 financial and operating results conference call. (Operator Instructions) The conference is being recorded.

感謝您稍候。我是會議接線員。歡迎參加 Baytex Energy Corp. 2026 年第一季財務與營運成果電話會議。(接線員指示) 本次會議將被錄音。

(Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Ector, Senior Vice President, Capital Markets and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

(接線員指示) 現在我想將會議交給資本市場與投資人關係資深副總裁 Brian Ector。請開始。

Thanks, Dave. Good morning, and welcome to Baytex's first quarter 2026 results conference call. Joining me today are Chad Lundberg, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Kendall Arthur, our Chief Operating Officer; and Chad Kalmakoff, our Chief Financial Officer. This is Chad's first call as CEO and Kendall's first as COO. Before we begin, please note that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws.

謝謝你，Dave。各位早安，歡迎參加 Baytex 2026 年第一季業績電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：我們的總裁兼執行長 Chad Lundberg；營運長 Kendall Arthur；以及財務長 Chad Kalmakoff。這是 Chad 以執行長身分的首次電話會議，也是 Kendall 以營運長身分的首次電話會議。在開始之前，請注意我們今天的討論包含依適用證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。

I refer you to the advisories regarding forward-looking statements, oil and gas information and non-GAAP financial and capital management measures in yesterday's press release. All dollar amounts referenced in our remarks are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified. After our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for questions. Webcast participants can also submit questions online. With that, let me turn the call over to Chad.

請參閱昨日新聞稿中關於前瞻性陳述、油氣資訊以及非 GAAP 財務與資本管理衡量指標的提示與聲明。除非另有說明，我們發言中提及的所有金額均以加幣計。在我們的準備發言之後，將開放提問。收看網路直播的與會者也可線上提交問題。接下來，讓我把電話交給 Chad。

Well, good morning, everyone. Q1 was a strong start to the year. Production averaged above the high end of our guidance at 69,500 BOE per day, driven by outperformance across our heavy oil portfolio. We exited the quarter with net cash of $591 million and repurchased 35 million shares or 4.6% of our shares outstanding for $174 million. With this outperformance and a constructive commodity backdrop, we are raising our 2026 production guidance to 69,000 to 71,000 BOE per day.

各位早安。第一季為今年帶來強勁的開局。產量平均達到指引區間上緣之上，為每日 69,500 BOE，主要受惠於我們重油資產組合的全面優於預期表現。我們在季末的淨現金為 5.91 億美元，並以 1.74 億美元回購 3,500 萬股、約占流通在外股數的 4.6%。在此優於預期表現及具建設性的商品市場背景下，我們將 2026 年產量指引上調至每日 69,000 至 71,000 BOE。

This represents 7% annual growth at midpoint, up from 3% to 5% previously. We are maintaining discipline with capital expenditures moving to the high end of our guidance, $625 million and includes incremental projects in our Duvernay and heavy oil. Along with updating our current year guidance, we are also updating our 3-year outlook. With the depth and quality of our inventory, we are targeting 6% to 8% annual production growth through 2028, up from the prior midpoint of 4%, while maintaining a net cash position throughout the period.

以中位數計算，這代表年增 7%，高於先前的 3% 至 5%。我們仍維持資本紀律，資本支出將提高至指引區間上緣 6.25 億美元，並包含在 Duvernay 與重油的增量專案。除了更新本年度指引外，我們也更新三年展望。憑藉我們庫存的深度與品質，我們目標在 2028 年前達成 6% 至 8% 的年產量成長，高於先前中位數 4%，同時在整個期間維持淨現金部位。

Before I turn the call over to Kendall, I want to acknowledge two appointments that were announced yesterday. Kendall Arthur moves into the Chief Operating Officer role, and Adrian Blazevic has been appointed Vice President, Heavy Oil. I have worked closely with both for the past 8 years. They have been instrumental in building our Canadian operations and are central to our long-term leadership plan. I am confident in their ability to execute and deliver against the strategy you will hear about this morning.

在我把電話交給 Kendall 之前，我想先提及昨日宣布的兩項任命。Kendall Arthur 轉任營運長，而 Adrian Blazevic 獲任命為重油副總裁。過去 8 年我與兩位密切合作。他們在建立我們加拿大營運方面扮演關鍵角色，也是我們長期領導接班計畫的核心。我對他們執行並交付您今天早上將聽到之策略的能力充滿信心。

Kendall, over to you.

Kendall，交給你。

Thanks, Chad, and good morning. We had a strong operational quarter. As Chad mentioned, production of 69,500 BOE per day exceeded the high end of our guidance, with oil and NGL representing 88% of the mix. We invested $145 million in exploration and development and brought 53 wells on stream, consistent with our full year plan. In heavy oil, we delivered strong results across the portfolio.

謝謝你，Chad，各位早安。我們本季營運表現強勁。如 Chad 所提，日產量 69,500 BOE 超過指引上緣，其中原油與 NGL 占比為 88%。我們在勘探與開發投入 1.45 億美元，並使 53 口井投產，符合全年計畫。在重油方面，我們在整個資產組合均交出強勁成果。

At Peavine, the first 6 wells of our 2026 program averaged 30-day IP rates of 680 barrels per day, well above the expected type curve. At Lloydminster, we stepped up to 3 rigs during the quarter, successfully targeting 7 discrete horizons across the Mannville stack, bringing 16.7 net wells on stream. At Peace River, we brought 3 wells on stream and acquired an additional 40 sections at Utikuma, bringing our total land position to 109 sections. We completed a 21-square-mile seismic shot covering approximately 20% of the land base and following interpretation could drill our first exploration test well in early 2027. In the Duvernay, we drilled our first 4 wells of the year with completions now underway.

在 Peavine，我們 2026 年計畫的前 6 口井 30 日初期產量（IP）平均為每日 680 桶，明顯高於預期型態曲線。在 Lloydminster，我們於本季將鑽機數提升至 3 部，成功鎖定 Mannville 層系堆疊中的 7 個獨立層位，並使 16.7 口淨井投產。在 Peace River，我們使 3 口井投產，並在 Utikuma 額外取得 40 個區段，使我們總土地部位達 109 個區段。我們完成一項 21 平方英里的地震採集，覆蓋約 20% 的土地基礎；在完成解釋後，最早可於 2027 年初鑽探第一口勘探測試井。在 Duvernay，我們已鑽完今年前 4 口井，目前正進行完井作業。

First wells are expected on stream in June, with the 9 following in Q3 and Q4, totaling 13 wells on stream in 2026 and with 1 4-well pad drilled and to be completed in early 2027. It was a safe and efficient quarter, and I want to recognize our field teams for their dedication and hard work. With that, I will turn it over to Chad Kalmakoff.

首批井預計於 6 月投產，其後 9 口井將於第三季與第四季投產，使 2026 年合計 13 口井投產，另有 1 個 4 口井井台已完成鑽井，預計於 2027 年初完井。本季在安全與效率方面表現良好，我要肯定我們現場團隊的投入與辛勞。接下來我把電話交給 Chad Kalmakoff。

Thanks, Kendall. This marked our first full quarter of results for our Canadian business. We generated $152 million of adjusted funds flow or $0.20 per basic share, and our operating netback improved to $35.36 per BOE, up from $29.30 per BOE in Q4 '25, driven by higher realized pricing and continued cost discipline. We realized hedging losses of $29 million in the quarter. Our exposure to the current strip will increase as our WTI hedges roll off at the end of Q2.

謝謝你，Kendall。這是我們加拿大業務首次完整季度的業績呈現。我們產生 1.52 億美元的調整後資金流（adjusted funds flow），或每股基本股 0.20 美元；營運淨回收（operating netback）提升至每 BOE 35.36 美元，高於 2025 年第四季的每 BOE 29.30 美元，主要受惠於較高的實現價格與持續的成本紀律。本季我們認列避險損失 2,900 萬美元。隨著我們的 WTI 避險在第二季末到期，我們對目前期貨曲線（strip）的曝險將提高。

As a reminder, on an unhedged basis, every $5 move in WTI impacts our adjusted funds flow on an annual basis by approximately $125 million. We ended Q1 with a net cash position of $591 million. And as Chad highlighted, we repurchased 35 million shares or 4.6% of the shares outstanding for $174 million. The balance sheet is in excellent shape with full flexibility to fund our capital program and return capital to shareholders. Our quarterly dividend of $0.0225 per share remains unchanged.

提醒一下，在未避險基礎下，WTI 每變動 5 美元，對我們年度調整後資金流的影響約為 1.25 億美元。第一季末我們的淨現金部位為 5.91 億美元。如 Chad 所強調，我們以 1.74 億美元回購 3,500 萬股、約占流通在外股數的 4.6%。資產負債表狀況極佳，具備充分彈性以支應資本計畫並向股東回饋資本。我們每季每股 0.0225 美元的股利維持不變。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Chad.

接下來我把電話交回給 Chad。

Thanks, Kendall and Chad. I want to close by stepping back from the quarter and speak about the business and opportunity in front of us. Our strategy is straightforward: grow 6% to 8% annually, advance the Duvernay and our heavy oil portfolio, invest in future optionality and return value to shareholders. We are targeting 15% annual total shareholder return at a mid-cycle price of $70. This is through a combination of production growth, dividends and share buybacks.

謝謝你，Kendall 和 Chad。最後我想跳脫本季，談談我們眼前的業務與機會。我們的策略很明確：每年成長 6% 至 8%，推進 Duvernay 與重油資產組合，投資未來的選擇權，並為股東創造回報價值。在中周期油價 70 美元的情境下，我們目標達成每年 15% 的股東總報酬。這將透過產量成長、股利與股票回購的組合來實現。

We can deliver this with the strength and depth of our current portfolio. The Duvernay is on track to deliver 35% production growth in 2026, with an exit rate of 14,000 to 15,000 BOE per day. Our heavy oil assets carry 12 years of drilling inventory at our current pace, with the active exploration across the fairway and two Peavine waterflood pilots underway. We are also driving our cost structure lower, the long-term sustaining breakeven target is under $50, further enhancing our resilience through the cycle. Gemini thermal represents significant long-term optionality that sits beyond our 3-year outlook.

我們可以憑藉目前投資組合的實力與深度來交付這一目標。Duvernay 按計畫推進，預計於 2026 年實現 35% 的產量成長，退出（年末）產量為每日 14,000 至 15,000 BOE。以我們目前的開鑽節奏，重油資產擁有 12 年的鑽井庫存，同時在主產帶（fairway）範圍內持續進行勘探，並已啟動兩個 Peavine 注水驅（waterflood）試點。我們也在推動成本結構下降，長期維持性損益兩平目標低於 50 美元，進一步提升我們穿越景氣循環的韌性。Gemini 熱採（thermal）代表顯著的長期選擇權價值，位於我們 3 年展望之外。

Gemini is a regulatory approved project with 44 million barrels of booked reserves and a first phase design of 5,000 barrels per day. We are advancing our technical and commercial outlook toward a final investment decision in 2027. This is a business with deep, profitable heavy oil inventory, a growing Duvernay and net cash on the balance sheet, we are excited to show what Baytex is capable of. Before we open for questions, I want to recognize two people. First, Eric Greager.

Gemini 是一個已獲監管核准的專案，已入帳儲量 4,400 萬桶，第一期設計產能為每日 5,000 桶。我們正推進技術與商業面展望，目標在 2027 年做出最終投資決策。這是一項擁有深厚且具獲利性的重油庫存、成長中的 Duvernay，以及資產負債表上淨現金的業務，我們很期待向各位展示 Baytex 的能力。在我們開放提問之前，我想表揚兩位同仁。首先是 Eric Greager。

Through his leadership, Eric helped to establish the disciplined Canadian platform we are today. He has worked to ensure a seamless leadership transition and has positioned the company for success going forward. Second, Brian Ector, I did not want to let this call pass without saying Brian has been the trusted and steady voice of Baytex to the investment community for many years. He will be retiring at the end of July, and we look forward to working with him through the transition. On behalf of everyone at Baytex, thank you both.

在他的領導下，Eric 協助建立了我們今日所擁有、紀律嚴明的加拿大平台。他致力於確保領導交接順暢，並為公司未來的成功奠定了基礎。第二位是 Brian Ector，我不想讓這通電話在未提及 Brian 的情況下結束；多年來，Brian 一直是 Baytex 對投資社群最值得信賴且穩健的發聲者。他將於 7 月底退休，我們也期待在交接期間與他合作。我謹代表 Baytex 全體同仁，感謝你們兩位。

It has been a pleasure working with you. With that, we are ready for questions.

能與你共事是我的榮幸。那麼，我們準備開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Phillips Johnston,Capital One.

(接線員指示) Phillips Johnston，Capital One。

I wanted to ask about the new 15% total shareholder return target, which is rather impressive. I just want to make sure I'm thinking about it correctly. So if we assume the new 3-year growth rate is around 7% and you add the 1.5% base dividend yield to that, you need another 6% or so from share buybacks to bridge that gap, which in round numbers, I think it's around $300 million of share buybacks per year. So my question is, is that math correct? And I guess, as a follow-up, I realize that this year's buyback is going to be significantly north of that figure.

我想問一下新的 15% 股東總回報目標，這相當令人印象深刻。我只是想確認我的理解是否正確。如果我們假設新的 3 年成長率約為 7%，再加上 1.5% 的基本股息殖利率，那麼還需要約 6% 來自股票回購來補足差距；以整數估算，我認為大約相當於每年 3 億美元的股票回購。所以我的問題是，這樣的計算正確嗎？另外作為追問，我也理解今年的回購金額將會明顯高於這個數字。

So conceptually, should we think about the buyback in '27 and '28 as being significantly lower so that you average around $300 million per year over the 3 years? Or is that a decent placeholder for '27 and '28?

那麼在概念上，我們是否應該把 2027 年和 2028 年的回購視為會顯著較低，讓 3 年平均約為每年 3 億美元？還是說，對於 2027 年和 2028 年而言，這個數字就是一個不錯的暫定假設？

Okay. Thanks, Phil. Appreciate the question. I think this one is very important to be clear on. So yes, at a top line, first priority is to deliver a 15% return to shareholders.

好的。謝謝你，Phil。感謝這個問題。我認為這點非常重要，必須說清楚。所以是的，從整體來看，第一優先是為股東交付 15% 的回報。

As you said, that's inclusive of production growth plus a dividend plus our buyback program. If we just step back, I just want to reiterate the commitment from the proceeds from the Eagle Ford sale. So 75% or $650 million will be deployed in 2026 through the buyback program. Beyond that, though, we think this business is capable of and are targeting the 15% that you described as we think about moving from this point into the future.

如你所說，這包含產量成長、股息，以及我們的回購計畫。如果我們先退一步，我想再次重申來自 Eagle Ford 出售案所得款項的承諾。因此，75% 或 6.5 億美元將在 2026 年透過回購計畫投入。除此之外，我們認為這項業務具備能力，並且在我們從現在往未來推進時，目標就是你所描述的 15%。

Okay. Great. That clears it up. And then I wanted to ask you about the incremental CapEx spend for the year. Does that increase factor in any service cost inflation?

好的。很好。這樣就清楚了。接著我想問一下今年資本支出（CapEx）增加的部分。這個增加是否已納入任何服務成本通膨？

Or is it just a reflection of the increased activity?

還是僅僅反映活動量的提升？

So maybe just a little bit of minor cost inflation, we're seeing no doubt on the diesel side right now. I don't think you could say we have it all baked into this point in time. Short of that, no. That is something that we're thinking about. We've got, though, most of our service supply costs locked in for the year for calendar 2026, certainly.

所以可能有一些輕微的成本通膨，我們現在確實在柴油方面看到一些壓力。我不認為你可以說在目前這個時間點，我們已把所有因素都完全納入。除此之外，沒有。這是我們正在思考的事情。不過，我們大部分的服務供應成本都已為 2026 年曆年鎖定。

And so we'll just have to see. We're 70 days into the war, 70 days into a complete flip on a macro basis with respect to supply/demand and the oil market. Just continue to monitor and see where supply costs go.

因此我們只能再觀察。我們已進入戰爭第 70 天，也已進入宏觀層面在供需與油市方面完全翻轉的第 70 天。我們會持續監控，看看供應成本會走向何處。

Greg Pardy, RBC.

Greg Pardy，RBC。

Congratulations to everyone. And then Brian, it's been just amazing working with you for such a long time. So all the very, very best. Chad, I wanted to ask you just a little bit about Gemini. And I know in your opening remarks, you did frame it and indicated that it would be beyond the 3-year plan as you look at it.

恭喜各位。另外 Brian，能與你合作這麼長一段時間真的很棒。祝你一切順利。Chad，我想再多問一點關於 Gemini 的問題。我知道你在開場致詞中確實有提到，從你的角度來看，它會在 3 年計畫之外。

What are the next steps in terms of how you're approaching this? So for example, I know it's been framed at 5,000 barrels a day or so at this point, is that a number conceivably that could go up? And then just what about the team perhaps that you're assembling within the -- are you assembling a team within the organization just with depth of expertise in thermal?

接下來你們在推進這件事上，下一步會是什麼？例如，我知道目前的說法大約是每日 5,000 桶左右，這個數字是否有可能往上調？另外，關於團隊方面——你們是否正在公司內部組建一個具備熱採（thermal）深度專業的團隊？

Okay. Thanks for joining, Greg. Yes. So let me start high level. Gemini has been in the portfolio since 2014.

好的。謝謝加入，Greg。是的。我先從高層次說起。Gemini 自 2014 年起就一直在我們的投資組合中。

We've identified 300 million barrels of resource on the project at a modest 50% recovery that would put us at 150 million barrels that we're targeting to capture. As I said in my comments, we have regulatory approval for Phase 1 of the project to develop it out. What does that mean? It means we have 3D seismic shot. We have vertical stratigraphic test wells to identify and confirm the chamber.

我們在該專案上辨識出 3 億桶資源量，若以相對保守的 50% 採收率計算，將對應 1.5 億桶，這也是我們目標要取得的量。如我先前所說，我們已取得第一期開發的監管核准。這代表什麼？代表我們已完成 3D 地震資料採集。我們也有垂直地層測試井，用以辨識並確認儲層（chamber）。

And ultimately, that gave confidence for the approval. So that would be Phase 1. If you do the math on the total resource that's available to recover against 5,000 barrels a day, it would put us out at a 75-year ROI. And so that would make us think about incremental projects to enhance the production beyond the 5,000. Can we get to 10,000 or maybe a little bit above?

最終，這些工作讓核准具備信心基礎。所以那就是第一期。如果你用可回收的總資源量去對照每日 5,000 桶的產量做計算，會得到約 75 年的投資回收期（ROI）。因此，這會促使我們思考額外的專案，把產量提升到超過 5,000 桶。我們能否做到 10,000 桶，或甚至略高一些？

I think there's a chance. What do we have to do? So a bit of the team has been scheduled since the initial projects back in 2014. We had a recent hire as some picked up on the web into the thermal team that we're very excited about, relooking at the commercial, technical, capital cost, outlook on the project. And from there, we're thinking about trying to get to first FID or an FID decision in early 2027.

我認為有這個可能性。我們需要做些什麼？因此，自2014年最初的專案以來，團隊中有一部分人就已排定投入。我們最近也招募了一位人才，有人從網路上注意到他並加入了我們的熱採團隊，我們對此非常興奮，正在重新檢視該專案的商業面、技術面、資本成本以及前景展望。接著，我們在思考嘗試於2027年初達成首次FID，或做出FID決策。

That means we ultimately have a chance to put first barrels online in 2029. Does that help, Greg?

這表示我們最終有機會在2029年讓第一批產量上線。這樣有幫助嗎，Greg？

Chad, it helps a lot. It helps a lot. You know how I feel about thermal. So that's music to my ears. Maybe just back on the conventional side, as you look at your 3-year plan now with a higher growth rate, I mean, typically, with that comes higher decline rates, higher natural declines and then also higher sustaining.

Chad，這幫助很大。真的幫助很大。你知道我對熱採的看法。所以這對我來說是好消息。也許回到傳統油氣那一邊，當你現在以較高的成長率來看你的三年計畫時，我是說，通常這會伴隨較高的遞減率、較高的自然遞減，然後也會需要更高的維持性資本。

Could you maybe just -- again, I'm hating to use this word frame over and over again, but could you maybe just put some context around how your decline curve is going to shift? And then maybe what sustaining looks like over the next maybe 2 or 3 years, just in broad strokes?

你能不能——我又不太想一再用「框架」這個詞——但你能不能就你的遞減曲線將如何移動，提供一些背景脈絡？然後也許用大方向談談未來大概2到3年維持性資本會是什麼樣子？

Sure. So as you pointed out, 6% to 8% production top line growth over the 3-year plan. The bulk of that comes out of the Duvernay asset, but there also is some coming from heavy oil. Heavy oil is 75% of our production flows today. And I would remind everybody that of the 75%, approximately 10% of our heavy oil is waterflood derived at this point in time.

當然。如你所指出的，三年計畫的產量整體年增為6%到8%。其中大部分來自Duvernay資產，但也有一部分來自重油。重油目前占我們產量流量的75%。我也提醒大家，在這75%之中，目前約有10%的重油來自水驅（waterflood）。

So if you look across that piece and portion of our portfolio, we have very competitive declines in the space. As we think about that 3-year plan, our decline stays actually relatively flat with the growth. On top of that, though, we have the incremental projects and catalysts that don't sit inside the 3-year plan today. So Peavine and waterfloods that are being piloted right now. We have incremental project opportunity just across the conventional cold flow heavy oil fairway as well as just working on the cash cost structure and making the business better, which we do as meat and potatoes every day inside the company.

因此，如果你看我們投資組合中的那一塊，我們在同業中擁有非常具競爭力的遞減率。在思考這個三年計畫時，我們的遞減率其實會隨著成長維持相對平坦。此外，我們還有一些不在目前三年計畫內的增量專案與催化劑。例如Peavine，以及目前正在試點的水驅專案。我們也在整個傳統冷採重油走廊上看到增量專案機會，同時也持續改善現金成本結構、讓業務更好——這些就是我們公司每天的基本功。

Menno Hulshof, TD Cowen.

Menno Hulshof，TD Cowen。

Congratulations, Eric and Brian. Just maybe I'll start with a question on the balance sheet. You talked about running net cash under the 3-year plan, which is great to hear. But can you maybe describe your philosophy in a little more detail? And is there a scenario where you would take on a bit of balance sheet leverage?

恭喜你們，Eric和Brian。我先從資產負債表的問題開始。你們提到在三年計畫下會維持淨現金，這很高興聽到。但你能否更詳細描述一下你們的理念？是否存在某種情境，你們會承擔一些資產負債表槓桿？

I'm assuming the answer is no, but maybe you could just walk us through that.

我猜答案是否定的，但也許你可以帶我們走一遍你們的思考。

Yes. Menno, I guess, first and foremost, we think that a strong balance sheet is paramount for oil and gas company and the cyclical nature of the commodity. So that would be step one. We view debt as a potential tool in the event we need it. We would not look to ever use it as a tool to go into debt like we were certainly in the past before the Eagle Ford transaction and the repositioning that we've undertaken.

是的。Menno，我想首先也是最重要的是，我們認為對於油氣公司而言，考量到商品的週期性，強健的資產負債表至關重要。這是第一步。我們把負債視為在需要時可用的潛在工具。我們不會把它當作一種工具去刻意增加負債，就像過去在Eagle Ford交易以及我們所進行的重新定位之前那樣。

As you think about this company going forward, if we did elect to use kind of half a turn at that $70 or mid-cycle pricing would be a threshold boundary that we wouldn't exceed and there would have to be a very good reason to take it on.

展望公司未來，如果我們選擇使用大約半圈（half a turn）的槓桿，在每桶70美元或中周期價格水準下，這會是我們不會超過的門檻界線，而且必須有非常充分的理由才會承擔。

Great. Chad, and then the second question is on the outlook for 2027. And I understand we'll have to wait for the release of 2027 guidance for the full details, which is still a long way out. But what ultimately drives the decision to grow 6% next year versus 8% and oil price, of course, is going to factor in. But what are the other sort of considerations in sort of getting from 6% to 8% or the other way around?

很好。Chad，第二個問題是關於2027年的展望。我理解我們得等到你們發布2027年指引才能看到完整細節，這還有一段時間。但究竟是什麼驅動你們決定明年成長6%而不是8%？當然油價會是因素之一。但在從6%到8%（或反過來）之間，還有哪些其他考量？

And then what are the broad strokes in terms of growth spending and activity levels based on what you're seeing today?

另外，就你們目前看到的情況，能否用大方向談談成長性支出與作業活動水準？

I think it comes back to what we're really trying to do with a company, and that's just drive value out to the shareholders, reposition inside Canada with these great assets that we have. When you think about how we do our capital planning, it's really a bottoms-up buildup from the teams. The question we ask is what is the best way to run this asset. And so what does best mean? So where can you deliver the strongest returns, strongest capital efficiencies to ultimately drive this growth.

我認為這回到我們真正想用這家公司做的事，也就是把價值帶給股東，並憑藉我們在加拿大擁有的這些優質資產完成重新定位。談到我們如何做資本規劃，其實是由各團隊自下而上彙整建構。我們會問的問題是：經營這個資產的最佳方式是什麼？那麼「最佳」代表什麼？也就是你在哪裡能交付最強的報酬、最高的資本效率，最終推動這個成長。

The fallout is the corporate top line production. And so when we talk about 6% to 8% in '27, '28 and beyond, this moves us, for example, to an 18- to 20-well program in the Duvernay. Again, that is where we hit a 1-rig levelized pace, and we have a shot at improving our capital cost structure even further than what we've demonstrated to this point in the asset. Equally so in heavy oil, where we would look to run the 4 rigs essentially that we keep going around the clock with the rigs to build on the crews, the teams and efficiencies within. So I think that's what underpins the growth, Menno, is just coming at it from a point of view of where can we drive the maximum value and returns to the shareholders.

其結果就反映在公司整體的產量成長。因此，當我們談到2027、2028以及之後的6%到8%時，這會讓我們例如在Duvernay推進到18到20口井的計畫。再說一次，這是我們達到單一鑽機（1-rig）平準化節奏的地方，而且我們有機會把資本成本結構進一步改善，超越我們迄今在該資產所展現的水準。同樣地，在重油方面，我們會希望基本上維持4部鑽機，讓鑽機全天候運轉，以便在班組、團隊與效率上持續累積。所以我認為支撐成長的核心，Menno，就是從「我們在哪裡能為股東創造最大價值與報酬」的角度來推進。

If you look at 2027 with what I just said and think about capital costs, this year, in the press release yesterday, we're going to 13 rigs drilled complete, tied in and online in the Duvernay, an incremental pad in the Duvernay that's ducked into 2027, and next year, 18 to 20 wells. That's going to come with some incremental capital, and you can expect that to be additive to the $625 million where we sit today. Does that help, Menno?

如果你用我剛才說的來看2027年並思考資本成本：今年在昨天的新聞稿中，我們在Duvernay將有13口井完成鑽完、完井、接管並上線；Duvernay還有一個額外的井場（pad）被延後到2027年；而明年則是18到20口井。這將帶來一些增量資本，你可以預期這會在我們目前的6.25億美元基礎上再增加。這樣有幫助嗎，Menno？

Yes, that does. That's great.

有的，確實有。很好。

Dennis Fong, CIBC.

Dennis Fong，CIBC。

First, congrats also to Brian as well as Eric. My first one maybe falls a little bit further along the line from what Menno was asking there was you've obviously showcased very strong well cost improvement in the Pembina Duvernay. Again, as you switch towards kind of a 1-rig development program and start to kind of roll in a lot of those efficiencies, what do you think cost structure can get towards with respect to cost for -- within the Pembina Duvernay?

首先，也恭喜 Brian 以及 Eric。我的第一個問題可能稍微延伸一下 Menno 剛才問的方向：你們顯然已在 Pembina Duvernay 展現出非常強勁的井成本改善。同樣地，當你們轉向類似單一鑽機（1-rig）的開發計畫，並開始把許多效率提升逐步納入後，你認為在 Pembina Duvernay 的成本結構——就成本而言——可以降到什麼水準？

I'm going to answer that very directly. So if you look in our slide pack on Page 10, we outlined what we've been doing with Duvernay costs. So in 2024, we moved from $1,165 per foot to 2025, $1,050 per foot of lateral length completed. We're budgeted out this year at $1,000 per foot. And we think, and this is the power of getting to scale in the assets is that at full rig activity pace, we have a shot at getting to $900 a foot or better.

我會非常直接地回答。如果你看我們簡報資料第 10 頁，我們概述了我們在 Duvernay 成本方面所做的工作。因此在 2024 年，我們從每英尺 1,165 美元降到 2025 年已完鑽的水平段長度每英尺 1,050 美元。我們今年的預算是每英尺 1,000 美元。而我們認為——這就是資產達到規模化的威力——在全鑽機作業節奏下，我們有機會做到每英尺 900 美元或更低。

I think that directly answers your question. The broader question of that is just the ecosystem of unconventional development. I think people really have to understand what we've done at this company. We talked about costs. We haven't talked about characterization, again, Slide 10 points to what we've done kind of year-over-year, '24 to '25 on the characterization front, moving from 80 BOE per foot to 90 BOE per foot.

我想這已直接回答你的問題。更廣泛的問題其實是非常規開發的整體生態系。我認為大家真的必須理解我們這家公司做了什麼。我們談了成本。我們還沒談到地層刻畫（characterization）；同樣地，第 10 頁指出我們在刻畫方面逐年所做的工作，從 '24 到 '25，把每英尺 80 BOE 提升到每英尺 90 BOE。

We haven't talked really about facilities and water infrastructure, but that's part of the ecosystem that needs to be developed to really optimize and maximize your efficiencies. This year, we do have a little bit of incremental facility spending, for example, as we built our budget, it's about $50 million with the majority of that going to the Duvernay. We have 3 years of elevated facilities spend in the Duvernay, so '26, '27 and '28, at that $35 million range. After that, it drops to $10 million going forward. That gets us 5 of 7 major anchor batteries completed.

我們也還沒真正談到設施與水務基礎建設，但那是需要建置的生態系一部分，才能真正最佳化並最大化效率。今年我們確實有一些增量的設施支出；例如在編列預算時，大約是 5,000 萬美元，其中大部分會投入 Duvernay。我們在 Duvernay 有 3 年較高的設施支出，也就是 '26、'27 和 '28，每年約 3,500 萬美元的區間。之後，未來將降至每年 1,000 萬美元。這將使我們完成 7 座主要錨點集輸站（anchor batteries）中的 5 座。

That gets us 2.5 of 5 of the water reservoirs completed. I think just the last point I'd make is the stakeholder relations. We have an absolutely tremendous surface stakeholder team at the company and the amount of work they've done to complete the formula for how you're successful in unconventionals is -- has been very strong. So Dennis, I tried to answer it very direct, but then broaden the question because there's many things that need to be taken into consideration.

這也將使我們完成 5 座蓄水池中的 2.5 座。我想我最後要補充的一點是利害關係人關係。我們公司有一支非常出色的地表利害關係人團隊，他們為了完成「如何在非常規領域成功」這套公式所做的工作——一直非常強。所以 Dennis，我試著非常直接地回答，但也把問題擴大，因為有很多事情需要納入考量。

I really appreciate that. The incremental color. And yes, it will be nice to kind of see where the cost structure trends to, especially as you move to a more scalable development. My next question turns towards the waterflood over at Peavine. I know you're initiating the 2 pilots with 2 different styles of, we'll call it, waterflooding technique.

我非常感謝。這些額外的補充說明。是的，看到成本結構的趨勢會很不錯，尤其是當你們轉向更可規模化的開發時。我的下一個問題是關於 Peavine 的水驅。我知道你們正在啟動 2 個試點，採用兩種不同風格的——我們姑且稱之為——水驅技術。

Can you maybe talk towards some of the data points or key metrics that you're looking for or hoping to find in terms of each of those pilots? And how that may kind of provide you insight to its possible deployment across your existing field and kind of the future development of the play?

你能否談談你們在每個試點中正在觀察或希望看到的一些數據點或關鍵指標？以及這將如何為你們提供洞見，評估是否可能在既有油田範圍內部署，並影響該區塊未來的開發？

I can. So waterflood at Peavine, we're currently drilling and converting our two pilots. So one of the pilots is a conversion of a 2-leg lateral. It was actually the initial discovery well in the play to an injector. What we will be actively trying to observe on that pilot is how fast can we fill up the voidage or oil that we've pulled out of the ground already?

可以。關於 Peavine 的水驅，我們目前正在鑽井並轉換兩個試點。其中一個試點是把一口雙分支水平井（2-leg lateral）改造成注水井。那其實是該區塊最初的發現井，現在改為注水井。我們會積極觀察的是：我們能多快把空隙量（voidage）——也就是我們已經從地下採出的油所形成的空隙——補回來？

And what happens when we get that voidage refilled with the offsetting declines and subsequent production on the active producers. The second pilot is where we're drilling new producers in conjunction with new injectors. Again, as we turn the production online, we will immediately turn injection online, and we will be trying to and attempting to observe what happens with decline. And ultimately, what that does in all of this to the recovery factors on the wells up in the Peavine. Maybe if I just step back a little bit, we do hold 48 of the top 50 wells on primary production in the Peavine, and you can see continued strong results with the delivery of primary development in Q1.

以及當我們把空隙量補回後，對鄰近井的遞減（decline）與在產生產井的後續產量會發生什麼變化。第二個試點則是我們在鑽新生產井的同時，搭配新注水井。同樣地，當我們把產量接上線時，我們會立刻把注水也接上線，並嘗試觀察遞減曲線會如何變化。最終，這一切對 Peavine 井的採收率（recovery factors）會帶來什麼影響。如果我稍微退一步補充，我們在 Peavine 的一次採收（primary production）前 50 口井中占了 48 口，而你也可以看到在第一季交付一次開發（primary development）後，仍持續有強勁成果。

And I think that as you think about waterflood in general and conventional cold flow heavy oil, just in broad brush strokes, typically, you get to a 7% recovery on primary development, double that with waterflood, again, very broad brush, so 15% and then push to greater than 20% as you go to more of a polymer flood style development techniques. In some of our primary wells, we've surpassed and gone as high as a 15% recovery. So seeing tremendous recovery from, again, the primary production. So just boiling it down, Dennis, we're looking for base decline on offsetting wells. We're looking at how that translates into ultimate recovery factor.

我認為，當你從更宏觀的角度看水驅以及傳統的冷採重油（conventional cold flow heavy oil），大致上通常一次開發的採收率約可到 7%，水驅可把它翻倍——同樣是非常概略的說法——到 15%，而當你進一步採用更偏向聚合物驅（polymer flood）類型的開發技術時，可推升到 20% 以上。在我們的一些一次採收井中，我們已經超過，最高甚至達到 15% 的採收率。因此，再次強調，從一次採收就能看到非常可觀的採收表現。所以簡單說，Dennis，我們在看的是鄰井的基礎遞減（base decline）。我們在看這如何轉化為最終採收率（ultimate recovery factor）。

And then we're looking for how that ultimately flows straight through to top line production out of the asset. But we're pretty excited about what it does for the company if it works.

然後我們也在看這最終如何直接反映到該資產的總產量（top line production）。但如果它可行，我們對它能為公司帶來的影響感到相當興奮。

Great. Great. And if you'll permit me one last question here. I'm looking at Slide 12 within your presentation. And what you've kind of highlighted there is an opportunity set targeting 8 discrete development horizons within, we'll call it, the heavy oil exposure that you guys have.

很好。很好。如果你允許我再問最後一個問題。我在看你們簡報的第 12 頁。你們在那裡強調的是一個機會集合，目標是在你們的重油曝險中鎖定 8 個獨立的開發層位。

I see that most of it is coming effectively from the Waseca and the Sparky. Can you maybe characterize the opportunity set that exists from targeting the multitude or the full stack of formations or targets here as you go forward, both from an inventory perspective and even a growth perspective?

我看到其中大部分實際上來自 Waseca 和 Sparky。你能否描述一下，當你們未來要鎖定多個、或完整堆疊（full stack）的地層／目標時，這個機會集合的特性為何——不論從庫存（inventory）角度，甚至從成長（growth）角度？

We're very excited about this area. So up in Northeast Alberta, we've doubled the land position in the last 5 years, but we've also opened up the 8 different stacks to the layer. So we think about it as a cube of oil in place. You're right, the initial production is from the Sparky formation. And quite frankly, that's what we identified on a map 5 years ago in our long-range planning.

我們對這個區域非常興奮。在阿爾伯塔省東北部，我們在過去 5 年把土地部位加倍，但同時也把 8 個不同的層系（stacks）打開了。所以我們把它視為一個「地層原油蘊藏量（oil in place）」的立方體。你說得對，初期產量來自 Sparky 地層。坦白說，那正是我們在 5 年前做長期規劃時，在地圖上所辨識出的目標。

That's what I would have said we are chasing in this area. With the work that's been done by our technical teams and then industry broadly, mapping out the signatures of the Clearwater rock, it's really opened up the incremental opportunity set here to the Waseca, as you pointed out, the Colony, McLaren and the various different zones that sit within that stack. I think here's the opportunity. Right now of the 1,100 wells that we hold that we call a risk inventory set in heavy oil, approximately half of them sit on this Northeast Alberta property. There is further incremental inventory that we're actively derisking by way of some of the exploration dollars drilling stratigraphic test wells and/or just committing to an outright development style well.

這正是我會說我們在這個領域所追求的。透過我們技術團隊以及整體產業所完成的工作，將 Clearwater 岩層的特徵訊號加以描繪，確實為這裡帶來了更多增量的機會組合，延伸到你所提到的 Waseca、Colony、McLaren，以及位於該層系堆疊中的各個不同區帶。我認為機會就在這裡。目前我們在重油方面持有、並稱之為風險庫存組合的 1,100 口井中，約有一半位於阿爾伯塔省東北部的這項資產上。此外，還有更多增量庫存，我們正透過投入部分勘探資金鑽探地層測試井，及／或直接承諾鑽一口完整開發型井，來積極降低其風險。

They are $2 million wells. And so at times, we'll just push right through to drilling the well. So I think the opportunity is large. As I said, it's a cube of oil in place, over 8 different layers and a map sheet that's greater than 100 sections. There's two predominant zones that we're producing from right now, but you can see that we're starting to uptick the different layers as we move further out in time.

這些是每口 200 萬美元的井。因此有時候，我們會直接推進到鑽井。所以我認為機會很大。如我所說，這是一個原油地層原始蘊藏量的「立方體」，橫跨 8 個不同層位，且其圖幅範圍超過 100 個區段（sections）。目前我們主要在兩個主力區帶生產，但你也可以看到，隨著時間推進，我們開始逐步提高對不同層位的開發比重。

And so look for us to continue to advance and unlock that in the future and in future updates.

因此，請期待我們未來持續推進並解鎖這些機會，並在後續更新中分享進展。

This concludes our question-and-answer session from the phone lines. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Brian Ector for any questions received online.

以上為電話線路的問答環節結束。我想把會議交回給 Brian Ector，請他回應線上收到的問題。

All right. Thanks, Dave. We do have several questions coming in from the webcast. So I'll try to summarize a few of them here. But first, to Chad Kalmakoff, can you maybe, Chad, elaborate on our hedge -- maybe the hedge book and our hedge philosophy going forward?

好的。謝謝你，Dave。我們確實收到數個來自網路直播的提問。我會在這裡嘗試摘要其中幾個。不過首先想請 Chad Kalmakoff，Chad，你是否可以進一步說明我們的避險——也就是避險部位（hedge book）以及未來的避險理念？

Sure. I'll hit the hedge book first. We still have about 50% of our WTI hedged until the end of Q2. Those have been legacy hedges that we had in place prior to sale of the Eagle Ford. So as I mentioned in the introductory remarks, once those roll off, we have pretty robust exposure to WTI prices.

當然。我先談避險部位。我們仍有約 50% 的 WTI 已避險到第二季末。這些是我們在出售 Eagle Ford 之前就已建立的既有避險。因此如我在開場致詞提到的，當這些避險到期後，我們對 WTI 價格將有相當高的曝險。

In terms of philosophy going forward, I think we've always had a strong balance sheet, best hedge. We wouldn't be looking to hedge any more WTI exposure. And obviously, with our cash position we're in enviable spot. So not looking to do any more WTI hedges. We continue to hedge differentials in WCS, MSW.

就未來的理念而言，我認為我們一直相信強健的資產負債表才是最好的避險。我們不會考慮再對更多 WTI 曝險進行避險。而且以我們目前的現金部位來看，處於相當有利的位置。所以不打算再做更多 WTI 避險。我們會持續針對 WCS、MSW 的價差進行避險。

We're about 50% -- or sorry, about 40% hedged, 43% hedged on WCS for the remainder of the year, around 13%. That's something that will probably continue on in the future to kind of hedge those differentials.

我們對 WCS 在今年剩餘期間大約避險了 40%——抱歉，約 43% 的避險比例，約 13%。這項作法未來可能會持續，用來對這些價差進行一定程度的避險。

And the question, I know like we discussed the shareholder return framework with a couple of analyst questions. A number of questions coming in, just around dividend philosophy, and just the shareholder return again, Chad, can you just maybe elaborate on the thoughts around the dividend versus the buyback program.

另外一個問題，我知道我們在幾位分析師提問時已討論過股東回報框架。也有不少問題是關於股利理念，以及再次關於股東回報；Chad，你能否再進一步說明對於股利與庫藏股回購計畫之間的考量？

Yes. So at a top line, we talked about the target to deliver 15% returns to our shareholders at $70 oil comprised of growth plus dividend plus buybacks. We talked about $650 million coming to shareholders this year by way of buyback. The other 25% of the proceeds, I would remind everybody is being deployed to small incremental greenfield tuck-in and bolt-on sale activity that we would like to think we're very, very good at to enhance and/or extend our current inventory position. With respect to the dividend, Brian, specifically, we pay $0.09 a share today that depending on where our price is in the 1.5% range as part of the formula.

可以。整體而言，我們談到在油價 70 美元時，目標是向股東提供 15% 的回報，組成包括成長、股利與回購。我們也提到今年將透過回購向股東返還 6.5 億美元。我也提醒大家，其餘 25% 的資金將用於小型、增量的綠地（greenfield）補強式（tuck-in）與加掛式（bolt-on）併購／資產交易活動；我們自認在這方面非常擅長，可用以強化及／或延長我們目前的庫存部位。至於股利，Brian，具體來說，我們目前每股支付 0.09 美元，依股價水準不同，約落在 1.5% 的殖利率區間，作為該公式的一部分。

We do not intend to increase the dividend at this point in time. That would be something we might look at in the future. But as we sit today, everything is evaluated on our best returning risk-adjusted basis. And this is the formula that we're moving forward with.

我們目前不打算提高股利。未來可能會再評估。但就目前而言，所有決策都會以風險調整後的最佳報酬為評估基準。而這就是我們接下來將採用的公式。

One last question around the free cash flow generation of our business. We were a couple of million dollars in Q1, Chad. And just a thought on expectations as the year unfolds for free cash flow.

最後一個問題是關於我們業務的自由現金流產生能力。Chad，我們第一季只有幾百萬美元。想請你談談隨著今年進行，自由現金流的預期。

Sure. I think we expect the balance of the year to be more robust. We kind of touched on the hedges, so that kind of impacts Q2 a little bit. But beyond that, if you think about an $80 average price for the remainder of the year, that would put you into the around $250 million of free cash flow for the balance -- for 2026 in total. And then again, you can think about the WTI beyond that, the $125 million, we want $5 on a full year basis, that would be kind of your notional changes.

好的。我認為我們預期今年剩餘期間會更為強勁。我們剛剛也提到避險，因此這會對第二季有些影響。但除此之外，如果你假設今年剩餘期間平均油價為 80 美元，那麼全年（2026 年合計）的自由現金流大約會落在 2.5 億美元左右。另外，你也可以思考 WTI 在此之後的變動：以全年基礎來看，每變動 5 美元大約對應 1.25 億美元，這可作為名目上的變動幅度。

Perfect. Thank you. So free cash flow will grow as the year unfolds. That was kind of the questions coming in from the webcast. That does wrap up today's call and the questions that were coming in.

很好。謝謝。所以自由現金流會隨著年度推進而成長。以上大致就是網路直播收到的問題。也就此結束今天的電話會議與提問。

We'd like to thank everyone for joining us. Thanks again for your time, and have a great day.

我們要感謝各位的參與。再次感謝大家撥冗，祝各位有美好的一天。

This brings to a close today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有愉快的一天。