Baytex Energy Corp (BTE) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Baytex Energy Third Quarter 2023 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) The conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。這是會議操作員。歡迎參加 Baytex Energy 2023 年第三季財務與營運績效電話會議。 （操作員指示）會議正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Ector, Senior Vice President, Capital Markets and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給資本市場和投資者關係高級副總裁布萊恩·埃克托 (Brian Ector)。請繼續。

Thank you, Ariel. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter 2023 financial and operating results. Today, I'm joined by Eric Greager, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Chad Kalmakoff, our Chief Financial Officer; and Chad Lundberg, our Chief Operating Officer. While listening, please keep in mind that some of our remarks will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. I refer you to the advisories regarding forward-looking statements, oil and gas information and non-GAAP financial and capital management measures in yesterday's press release.

謝謝你，艾麗爾。女士們先生們早安，感謝您與我們一起討論我們 2023 年第三季的財務和營運業績。今天，我們的總裁兼執行長 Eric Greager 也加入了我的行列。查德‧卡爾馬科夫 (Chad Kalmakoff)，我們的財務長；以及我們的營運長查德·倫德伯格 (Chad Lundberg)。在聆聽時，請記住，我們的一些言論將包含適用證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。請您參閱昨天新聞稿中有關前瞻性陳述、石油和天然氣資訊以及非公認會計準則財務和資本管理措施的建議。

All dollar amounts referenced in our remarks are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified. And following our prepared remarks, we will be taking questions from the analysts. In addition, if you are listening in today via the webcast, you will have the opportunity to submit an online question, and we will do our best to answer all questions submitted.

除非另有說明，我們備註中提到的所有美元金額均以加幣為單位。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將回答分析師的問題。此外，如果您今天透過網路廣播收聽，您將有機會提交線上問題，我們將盡力回答所有提交的問題。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Eric.

現在，我將把電話轉給埃里克。

Thanks, Brian. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter conference call. For Baytex, this represents the first full quarter of combined operations following the Ranger acquisition and demonstrates the strength of our diversified North American oil-related portfolio. The integration has progressed extremely well, and we have delivered strong results from Western Canada and the Eagle Ford in Texas. During the third quarter, we delivered top quartile results from our operated Eagle Ford assets, continued exceptional Clearwater results at Peavine where we now hold the top 30 wells drilled across the entire Clearwater Fairway and significantly progressed our Pembina Duvernay play with 6 wells drilled and completed, trouble-free earlier this year which are all tracking to our type curve performance expectations. I'll elaborate on this well performance in a few minutes.

謝謝，布萊恩。大家早上好，歡迎參加我們的第三季電話會議。對於 Baytex 來說，這代表了收購 Ranger 後的第一個完整季度的合併業務，並展示了我們多元化的北美石油相關投資組合的實力。整合進展非常順利，我們在加拿大西部和德克薩斯州的伊格爾福特取得了強勁的成果。第三季度，我們營運的Eagle Ford 資產取得了前四分之一的業績，在Peavine 繼續取得了出色的Clearwater 業績，我們現在在整個Clearwater 航道上鑽探了前30 口井，並在Pembina Duvernay 油田中取得了顯著進展，已鑽探並完成了6 口井，今年早些時候沒有出現任何問題，這些都符合我們的類型曲線性能預期。我將在幾分鐘內詳細說明這個良好的性能。

I'm also excited to announce 2 new land extensions at Peavine and Cold Lake as we continue to leverage our heavy oil expertise and recent exploration successes. We continue to execute on our 2023 plan and now anticipate fourth quarter production of 158,000 to 160,000 BOE per day, 84% weighted to oil and NGLs. We are forecasting full year 2023 exploration and production expenditures of just over $1 billion, which is consistent with our previous guidance.

我還很高興地宣佈在 Peavine 和 Cold Lake 進行兩項新的土地擴建，因為我們將繼續利用我們的重油專業知識和最近的勘探成功。我們繼續執行 2023 年計劃，目前預計第四季度產量為每天 158,000 至 160,000 桶油當量，其中 84% 為石油和液化天然氣。我們預計 2023 年全年勘探和生產支出將略高於 10 億美元，這與我們先前的指引一致。

Based on the forward strip for the balance of 2023, we expect to generate free cash flow of approximately $400 million during the fourth quarter and $650 million for full year 2023. As a reminder, we increased our direct shareholder return to 50% of free cash flow on closing the Ranger acquisition, which has allowed us to increase the value of our share buyback program and introduce a dividend. The remainder of our free cash flow continues to be allocated to the balance sheet.

根據2023 年餘額的遠期預測，我們預計第四季將產生約4 億美元的自由現金流，2023 年全年將產生6.5 億美元的自由現金流。提醒一下，我們將直接股東回報率提高到自由現金的50%完成 Ranger 收購後的流程，這使我們能夠增加股票回購計畫的價值並引入股利。我們剩餘的自由現金流繼續分配到資產負債表上。

Our normal course issuer bid allows us for the purchase of up to 68.4 million common shares during the 12-month period ending June 28, 2024, and as a result of our free cash flow profile, we have increased the pace of our share buyback program during the fourth quarter. Through October 31, 2023, we repurchased 28.1 million shares for $155 million, representing 3.3% of our shares outstanding at an average price of $5.51 per share. In addition, we paid an initial quarterly cash dividend of $0.0225 per share on October 2, 2023, and our Board has declared our Q4 cash dividend of $0.0225 per share to be paid on January 2, 2024. I'll now shift to our Q3 results.

我們的正常發行人出價允許我們在截至 2024 年 6 月 28 日的 12 個月期間購買最多 6840 萬股普通股，並且由於我們的自由現金流狀況，我們加快了股票回購計劃的步伐第四季度期間。截至 2023 年 10 月 31 日，我們以 1.55 億美元回購了 2,810 萬股股票，占我們已發行股票的 3.3%，平均價格為每股 5.51 美元。此外，我們於2023 年10 月2 日支付了每股0.0225 美元的初始季度現金股息，我們的董事會已宣布將於2024 年1 月2 日支付每股0.0225 美元的第四季度現金股息。我現在轉向我們的第三季結果。

Production during the quarter was 150,600 BOE per day, and we delivered adjusted funds flow of $582 million, $0.68 per basic share. We generated free cash flow of $158 million, $0.19 per basic share. Exploration and development expenditures totaled $409 million during the quarter consistent with our full year plan, and we brought 87.8 net wells onstream. As of September 30, 2023, our total debt was $2.7 billion, representing a total debt-to-EBITDA ratio Q3 '23 annualized of 1.1x.

本季產量為每天 150,600 桶油當量，調整後資金流量為 5.82 億美元，每股基本股 0.68 美元。我們產生了 1.58 億美元的自由現金流，每股基本股 0.19 美元。本季勘探和開發支出總計 4.09 億美元，與我們的全年計畫一致，我們淨投產了 87.8 口井。截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，我們的總負債為 27 億美元，23 年第三季總負債與 EBITDA 比率為 1.1 倍。

During the third quarter, we repaid our USD 150 million term loan. Our total debt at quarter end increased relative to Q2 '23 due to the impact of the strengthening U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar and our U.S. dollar-denominated debt, along with working capital adjustments. Based on current commodity prices and forecast free cash flow for the fourth quarter, we expect to exit 2023 with total debt of approximately $2.5 billion. I'm going to shift now and talk more about our recent activity.

第三季度，我們償還了 1.5 億美元的定期貸款。由於美元相對於加幣走強以及我們以美元計價的債務以及營運資本調整的影響，我們在季度末的總債務相對於 2023 年第二季度有所增加。根據目前大宗商品價格和第四季的預測自由現金流，我們預計 2023 年退出時的債務總額約為 25 億美元。我現在要換個位置，多談談我們最近的活動。

In the Eagle Ford, our Q3 program reflects strong results across the black oil and condensate thermal maturity windows of the Lower Eagle Ford. Our operated assets, the 13 wells generated an average 30-day initial production rate of 1,500 BOEs per day, 78% oil and NGLs per well, ranging from 769 BOEs per day to 2,355 BOEs per day. 7 wells from 3 pads. These pads are the Bloodstone, the Bubinga and the Hickory generated an average 30-day initial production rate of 2,000 BOE per day, 65% oil and NGLs per well. When we compare these results to a data set of 784 wells sourced from public data, our Q3 performance ranks in the top quartile of all wells drilled in 2023 in the Eagle Ford, and on a production per lateral foot basis, we are solidly in the second quartile. So I'm very pleased with this performance.

在 Eagle Ford，我們的第三季計畫反映了 Lower Eagle Ford 黑油和凝析油熱成熟度窗口的強勁成果。我們營運的資產，即13 口井，平均30 天初始產量為每天1,500 桶油當量，每口井產油量為78%，石油和液化天然氣產量從每天769 桶油當量到每天2,355 桶油當量不等。 3 個墊上有 7 個孔。這些油田包括 Bloodstone、Bubinga 和 Hickory，平均 30 天初始產量為每天 2,000 桶油當量，每口井含 65% 的石油和液化天然氣。當我們將這些結果與來自公開數據的784 口井的數據集進行比較時，我們第三季度的業績在Eagle Ford 2023 年鑽探的所有井中名列前四分之一，並且以每側英尺產量為基礎，我們穩居領先地位。第二個四分位數。所以我對這次的表現非常滿意。

In addition to delivering strong results, we remain focused on base optimization and continued drilling and completion performance. Our Pembina Duvernay light oil assets are in the demonstration stage of commerciality and offer high operating netbacks with strong economics and the potential for significant organic growth. We brought 6 wells onstream mid-summer. The 6 wells generated average production rates of approximately 950 BOE per day, 89% oil and NGLs. In September, ranging from 790 BOE per day to 1,080 BOE per day and continue to track to type curve performance expectations. Production from the Pembina Duvernay increased to over 7,500 BOE per day in September, up from 2,000 BOE per day in H1 2023, and the 2023 program has significantly advanced our understanding of the reservoir as we continue to progress this light oil resource play. On the heavy oil side, following a relatively quiet second quarter due to spring breakup, our program ramped up during the third quarter with 28 net heavy oil wells onstream, 14 at Peavine, 8 at Lloydminster and 3 at Peace River.

除了取得強勁成果外，我們仍然專注於基礎優化以及持續的鑽井和完井性能。我們的 Pembina Duvernay 輕油資產正處於商業示範階段，可提供高營運淨回報、強勁的經濟性和顯著的有機成長潛力。我們在仲夏將 6 口井投產。這 6 口井的平均產量約為每天 950 桶油當量，其中包括 89% 的石油和液化天然氣。 9月，產量範圍從每天790桶油當量到每天1,080桶油當量，並繼續追蹤型曲線業績預期。 Pembina Duvernay 的產量從2023 年上半年的每天2,000 桶油當量增至9 月份的每天超過7,500 桶油當量，隨著我們繼續推進這一輕質油資源開發，2023 年計劃極大地加深了我們對油藏的了解。在重油方面，繼第二季度因春季停工而相對平靜之後，我們的計劃在第三季度有所增加，淨重油井達 28 口，其中 14 口位於 Peavine，8 口位於 Lloydminster，3 口位於 Peace River。

At Peavine the 14 wells generated an average 30-day initial production rate of 725 barrels per day per well, ranging from 330 barrels per day to 1,073 barrels per day. Production at Peavine averaged almost 14,000 barrels per day in Q3 '23, up 69% from Q3 '22 and increased to 16,400 barrels per day during the month of September. We are also following up our recent heavy oil exploration success at Morinville, Alberta and Cold Lake, Alberta during the fourth quarter. Building on our heavy oil expertise, we have expanded our heavy oil development fairway through 2 land extensions, including a 10 section extension at the Peavine Métis settlement adjacent to our existing 80 section land position at Peavine and to farm-in on 17.75 sections of land perspective for Mannville development near Cold Lake in Northeast Alberta. We've included a map of these incremental land positions in our updated Investor Relations presentation.

Peavine 的 14 口井的平均 30 天初始產量為每口井每天 725 桶，範圍從每天 330 桶到每天 1,073 桶。 Peavine 23 年第 3 季的平均產量接近 14,000 桶/日，比 22 年第 3 季增長 69%，9 月增至每天 16,400 桶。我們也在第四季度跟進最近在艾伯塔省莫林維爾和艾伯塔省冷湖的重油勘探成功。憑藉我們的重油專業知識，我們透過兩次土地擴建擴大了我們的重油開發通道，其中包括在Peavine Métis 定居點的10 段擴建，毗鄰我們在Peavine 現有的80 段土地位置，並在17.75 段土地上進行分包艾伯塔省東北部冷湖附近曼維爾開發的土地前景。我們在更新的投資者關係簡報中包含了這些增量土地位置的地圖。

Shifting to risk management. We employ a disciplined hedging program to help mitigate the volatility in revenue due to changes in commodity prices. For the first half of '24, we have entered into hedges on approximately 40% of our net crude oil exposure, utilizing 2-way collars with a floor price of USD 60 per barrel and a ceiling price of USD 100 per barrel. For the second half of 2024, we have entered into hedges on approximately 25% of our net crude oil exposure, utilizing 2-way collars with a floor price of USD 60 per barrel and a ceiling price of USD 98 per barrel. As I wrap up my prepared remarks, I would like to reiterate our commitment to operational excellence and delivering long-term value and enhance shareholder returns. I'm very pleased with the operating results across our portfolio, which has set the stage for a strong finish to 2023. We do see our shares as undervalued, and we have stepped up our share buyback program during the fourth quarter. We're a strong North American energy company with a high-quality, diversified oil-weighted portfolio across Western Canada and the Texas Gulf Coast.

轉向風險管理。我們採用嚴格的避險計畫來幫助減輕因大宗商品價格變動所造成的收入波動。 2024 年上半年，我們對大約 40% 的原油淨敞口進行了對沖，採用雙向避險，底價為每桶 60 美元，上限為每桶 100 美元。 2024 年下半年，我們對約 25% 的原油淨敞口進行了對沖，採用雙向避險，底價為每桶 60 美元，上限為每桶 98 美元。在結束準備好的演講時，我想重申我們對卓越營運、提供長期價值和提高股東回報的承諾。我對我們投資組合的經營業績感到非常滿意，這為 2023 年的強勁業績奠定了基礎。我們確實認為我們的股票被低估，並且我們在第四季度加強了股票回購計劃。我們是一家強大的北美能源公司，在加拿大西部和德克薩斯州墨西哥灣沿岸擁有高品質、多元化的石油投資組合。

And now operator, we are ready to open the call for questions.

現在接線員，我們準備好開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Greg Pardy of RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Greg Pardy。

Eric, I know it's still early, but what are your broad strokes, I think, in terms of spending any guidance maybe around production so forth for 2024?

艾瑞克，我知道現在還為時過早，但我認為，在 2024 年生產等方面的支出指導方面，您的大致思路是什麼？

Yes, it's a good question, Greg. Thank you. We like to think about 2024 as an extension of the second half of 2023. So if you were to take H2 capital on a half year basis and extend that out into 2024 and the range of 155,000 to 160,000 BOE a day and extend that across 2024, there'll be a little bit of lumpiness seasonally. But I think that would be a really good way to think about 2024.

是的，這是個好問題，格雷格。謝謝。我們喜歡將2024 年視為2023 年下半年的延伸。因此，如果您要以半年為基礎獲取H2 資本，並將其延續到2024 年，每天的範圍為155,000 至160,000 桶油當量，並將其延續到2024 年，季節性會有一點塊狀。但我認為這將是思考 2024 年的一個非常好的方式。

And then I'm going to shift gears on you. Production rates, like you've done the land extension now in the Clearwater. So good on getting that done does any of this really change that 12,000 to 15,000 barrels a day range that you've been kind of guiding us towards where you think you could stabilize production in the Clearwater or does that...

然後我會改變你的態度。生產率，就像您現在在克利爾沃特進行的土地擴展一樣。完成這項工作非常好，這是否真的會改變每天 12,000 至 15,000 桶的範圍，您一直在引導我們朝著您認為可以穩定克利爾沃特生產的方向發展，或者這樣做......

That's a great question. We are pushing kind of the top of that range here in Q3 and continue to see encouraging results as we develop across the body of what now looks like a green headed prairie chicken on our map. And so I do expect, Greg, that the 12,000 to 15,000 barrels a day is probably something we'll continue to say, but I would expect to live near the high end of that more often than I might have expected even 6 months ago. So it is a good, strong development plan over time.

這是一個很好的問題。我們在第三季度推動了該範圍的頂部，並且隨著我們在地圖上現在看起來像綠頭草原雞的身體的發展，我們繼續看到令人鼓舞的結果。因此，格雷格，我確實預計，每天 12,000 至 15,000 桶可能是我們會繼續說的內容，但我預計生活在這一上限附近的頻率比我 6 個月前的預期還要多。因此，隨著時間的推移，這是一個良好、強有力的發展計畫。

We continue to want to be very disciplined and really thoughtful about how we march forward. Social license to operate is very important to us and maintaining a strong and transparent relationship with the communities in which we operate, including here the Peavine Métis settlement, it's very important to us. So I'll reiterate the 12,000 to 15,000 barrels a day, and I'll probably follow that up by saying we could live at the high end of that consistently, but you'll probably hear us keep saying that.

我們仍然希望在前進的道路上保持嚴格的紀律和深思熟慮。社會經營許可對我們非常重要，與我們經營所在的社區（包括 Peavine Métis 定居點）保持牢固和透明的關係對我們來說非常重要。因此，我將重申每天 12,000 至 15,000 桶，我可能會接著說我們可以持續生活在這一上限，但你可能會聽到我們一直這麼說。

Our next question comes from Menno Hulshof of TD Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Menno Hulshof。

I'll start with a question on Lloydminster Mannville since you farmed in on another rough number 17 sections. You have a lot of running room in the play. And I'm just looking at the slide deck, just that relative returns. It looks like the Mannville is -- I'm going to say, a distant second to the Peavine but comparable to your Eagle Ford Karnes assets. So what does all of this mean for Mannville activity levels in 2024 and beyond.

我將從勞埃德明斯特·曼維爾 (Lloydminster Mannville) 的問題開始，因為您參與了另一個粗略的 17 號部分。你在劇中還有很大的發揮空間。我只是看投影片，只是相對報酬。看起來曼維爾——我想說的是，遠遠落後於皮文，但與你們的鷹福特卡恩斯資產相當。那麼，這一切對於 2024 年及以後的曼維爾活動水平意味著什麼？

Thanks, Menno. I think it means we're going to continue to employ our geoscience exploration program. You know what you and I talked about the success that our 2 geoscience teams have had across the heavy oil fairway. We're going to continue to fund that exploration program with what we believe to be a unique petrophysical understanding of the rock, and this has led to the success of Peavine. It has led to the Waseca at Cold Lake, and it has led to additional extensions. And so it competes very well in our portfolio, as you suggest, and it's a good problem to have. WCS basis dips have widened a little bit here in Q4, but we fully anticipate those will narrow back up in 2024. And as TMX starts line fill and comes on delivery.

謝謝，門諾。我認為這意味著我們將繼續實施我們的地球科學探索計畫。你知道你和我談論過我們的兩個地球科學團隊在重油航道上的成功。我們將繼續為該勘探計劃提供資金，我們認為這是對岩石獨特的岩石物理學理解，這導致了 Peavine 的成功。它通往冷湖的 Waseca，並導致了額外的擴建。因此，正如您所建議的，它在我們的產品組合中競爭非常好，這是一個很好的問題。 WCS 基差跌幅在第四季度有所擴大，但我們完全預計這些跌幅將在 2024 年收窄。隨著 TMX 開始生產線填充並交付。

So we're very confident that the heavy oil fairway will continue delivering new discoveries, new accumulations as well as continued extensions around the places where we've had good success already. So very fond of the heavy oil fairway, very fond of the place that it lives in our portfolio and fully expect to continue funding. The good news is with the very significant cash flows coming out of our Gulf Coast asset, that's 60% of our production priced at a premium to TI, those significant cash flows not only carry the development freight in the U.S. along the Gulf Coast and the Eagle Ford, but also provide very substantial cash flows back into the business so we can continue leaning into all the rest of the strength of the portfolio, continue exploring and developing places like the Pembina Duvernay and the exploration success in Peavine, Waseca, Cold Lake, in around the (inaudible) Morinville, and all the other places where we are currently excited to explore.

因此，我們非常有信心，重油通道將繼續帶來新的發現、新的積累，並在我們已經取得良好成功的地方繼續延伸。非常喜歡重油航道，非常喜歡它在我們投資組合中的位置，並完全期望繼續提供資金。好消息是，我們的墨西哥灣沿岸資產產生了非常可觀的現金流，即我們 60% 的產品定價高於 TI，這些大量現金流不僅承載著美國墨西哥灣沿岸和美國的開發費用。 Eagle Ford，同時也為業務提供非常可觀的現金流，這樣我們就可以繼續依靠投資組合的所有其他優勢，繼續勘探和開發Pembina Duvernay 等地區以及Peavine、Waseca、Cold Lake 的勘探成功，在（聽不清）Morinville 周圍，以及我們目前興奮探索的所有其他地方。

Terrific. And my follow-up is on the share buybacks, a big step up in October. Can you remind us of your overall strategy? Is it programmatic or more opportunistic? How do you -- how does your measure of intrinsic value factor into the allograft are day to day? And is it possible that we see Baytex participate in the next Juniper secondary, which is coming up pretty quickly potentially?

了不起。我的後續行動是股票回購，這是十月的一大進步。您能提醒我們一下您的整體策略嗎？是程序性的還是機會主義的？您日常如何衡量同種異體移植物的內在價值因素？我們是否有可能看到 Baytex 參與下一個 Juniper 二級市場，該二級市場可能很快就會出現？

Yes. Yes. So to put a time frame on that last part, Menno, you recall that it was three escrow periods, 90 days, 90 days, and 90 days, each representing 1/3 of the total block. And so the first 90 days executed an overnight bought deal, not us, but Juniper executed an overnight bought deal, and that was September 18, I believe. The next 90-day escrow period will expire on December 17, I believe. And the question around us participating is really a legal and regulatory one. As long as Juniper holds more than 10% of our total outstanding shares, we are prohibited from participating as a buyer in that book. And Juniper currently holds, I think, right at or just under 12%. And so I don't think -- as much as we would love to, I don't think we will be able to participate in the book. And it's the same reason we couldn't participate when they were at a little over 18% and took it down to 12%.

是的。是的。因此，為了為最後一部分設定一個時間框架，Menno，您記得這是三個託管期，90 天、90 天和 90 天，每個託管期代表總區塊的 1/3。因此，前 90 天執行了隔夜買入交易，不是我們，而是瞻博網路執行了隔夜買入交易，我相信那是 9 月 18 日。我相信下一個 90 天的託管期將於 12 月 17 日到期。我們參與的問題其實是一個法律和監管問題。只要瞻博網路持有我們已發行股份總數的 10% 以上，我們就被禁止以買家身分參與此交易。我認為，瞻博網路目前的持股比例為 12% 或略低於 12%。所以我不認為——儘管我們很樂意這樣做，但我不認為我們能夠參與這本書的編寫。這也是我們在他們的比例略高於 18% 時無法參與並將其降至 12% 時的原因。

The good news is there was a lot of demand for the shares it traded well, and we certainly do expect the next book to do just as well. So what I would say around the NCIB is, we expect to be programmatic and opportunistic because right now, we're undervalued. So it's a great opportunity to be buying back shares at a pretty good pace. And to do so on a kind of a cost averaging basis, which is the programmatic element of the NCIB. We really like the NCIB because it has this cost averaging functionality but also because as a company, we go in and out of blackouts, and so we can set up instructions and let it run through the blackout whereas if we were being opportunistic that would have to line up with an open window, and that doesn't always happen.

好消息是，對其交易良好的股票有很大的需求，我們當然預計下一本書也會有同樣的表現。因此，關於 NCIB，我要說的是，我們希望保持計劃性和機會主義，因為目前我們的價值被低估了。因此，這是一個以相當好的速度回購股票的絕佳機會。這樣做是在一種成本平均的基礎上進行的，這是 NCIB 的規劃要素。我們真的很喜歡 NCIB，因為它具有成本平均功能，而且因為作為一家公司，我們會進出停電，因此我們可以設置指令並讓它在停電期間運行，而如果我們投機取巧，就會與打開的窗戶對齊，但這並不總是發生。

So right now, we're doing both programmatic and opportunistic but it's because we're undervalued and both present themselves, but it's all taking place via NCIB, just to be clear. And then I would say, relative to intrinsic value, I mentioned a couple of times already, we're not currently close to our fair value as we see it. So with the discount, we're buying back as much as we can and intend to continue at a pretty aggressive pace through Q4 of '23. There will be a time, I suppose, if we're really fortunate that the share price begins to approach fair value. I hope that's the case. That will be a good problem to have. And one of the linkages we really like here is as we buy up and take out shares -- outstanding shares, and let's just say for the sake of argument at an NCIB limit of 10% per year, then every year, we could rebase the fixed base dividend by that same amount because you've taken out those shares.

所以現在，我們既進行計劃性的，也進行機會主義的，但這是因為我們被低估了，而且都展示了自己，但需要澄清的是，這一切都是透過 NCIB 進行的。然後我想說，相對於內在價值，我已經提到過幾次了，我們目前還沒有接近我們所看到的公允價值。因此，透過折扣，我們將盡可能回購股票，並打算在 23 年第四季繼續以相當積極的步伐進行回購。我想，如果我們真的很幸運的話，總有一天，股價會開始接近公允價值。我希望情況確實如此。這將是一個很好的問題。我們真正喜歡的聯繫之一是我們購買並取出股票——已發行股票，為了便於爭論，我們只說 NCIB 每年的限額為 10%，然後每年我們都可以重新設定固定基本股息相同金額，因為您已取出這些股票。

The total quantum of fixed base dividend would decline over time on an absolute value basis. And so that would give us the opportunity to rebase it periodically. And that's a linkage we really like. To be clear, we haven't announced that plan, but it is a linkage we like because it creates a systematic approach to share repurchases and your fixed base dividend. So that's something we like, and it also helps answer the relationship between current share price, intrinsic value and other ways to return capital to shareholders. So let me just pause there, Menno and see if you want to follow up.

以絕對值計算，固定基數股利的總額將隨著時間的推移而下降。這樣我們就有機會定期重新調整它的基礎。這是我們真正喜歡的連結。需要明確的是，我們尚未宣布該計劃，但我們喜歡這種聯繫，因為它創建了一種系統的方法來回購股票和固定基礎股息。所以這是我們喜歡的，它也有助於回答當前股價、內在價值和其他向股東返還資本的方式之間的關係。所以讓我暫停一下，門諾，看看你是否想跟進。

No, that was really thorough, Eric. That's it from me.

不，這真的很徹底，艾瑞克。這就是我說的。

Our next question comes from Amir Arif of ATB Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 ATB Capital 的 Amir Arif。

Just a couple of questions on the Eagle Ford. Just can you give us a sense of the cadence of drilling plans in the Eagle Ford, I think you brought on 22 net wells roughly this quarter, let's drop into 11 next quarter. Is this -- is it more of a level-loaded program on your operated asset and you just sprinkle in the non-op wells when they come in? Just trying to get a sense of how '24 drilling activity will look in the Eagle Ford on a quarterly basis.

關於鷹福特只有幾個問題。您能否讓我們了解 Eagle Ford 鑽探計劃的節奏，我認為您本季大約淨鑽了 22 口井，下季度我們將減少到 11 口。這是不是——它更像是您營運資產上的一個水平加載程序，而您只是在非運營井進來時撒上它們？只是想了解一下 Eagle Ford 每季 24 小時的鑽探活動情況。

Yes. Q4, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, Amir, there's going to be some lumpiness. It has seasonality impacts to it, broadly speaking, quarter-over-quarter, but then specifically in Q4 and specifically because we have a substantial non-op asset, the capital that gets allocated to the non-op assets in Q4 is, of course, beyond our control. And if the operator pulls back on capital in Q4 because that's -- they've essentially spent the capital and developed a program that they wanted to develop then that sort of kind of is what it is.

是的。第四季度，阿米爾，按季度計算，將會出現一些波動。從廣義上講，它對季度有季節性影響，但特別是在第四季度，特別是因為我們擁有大量非營運資產，所以第四季度分配給非營運資產的資本當然是，超出我們的控制範圍。如果營運商在第四季度撤回資本，因為他們基本上已經花費了資本並開發了他們想要開發的程序，那麼事情就是這樣的。

On the operated side of the business, we try to run the businesses as operationally efficient as we can. And for our operated Eagle Ford position, this means 2 rigs, level loaded, running basically full time. And those will feed 1 frac crew at the tailgate of the rigs, clearing the DUC inventory that comes off the drilling program. And that will be a little bit lumpy based on pad size and some seasonality effects. But generally speaking, our operator program will be more level loaded, I think, but Q4 is definitely seasonality related towards the end of the year and related more toward the non-op assets.

在業務營運方面，我們嘗試盡可能有效率地經營業務。對於我們運營的 Eagle Ford 基地，這意味著 2 台鑽機，水平裝載，基本上全職運行。這些將為鑽井平台尾門的 1 名壓裂人員提供食物，從而清理鑽井計劃中產生的 DUC 庫存。根據焊盤尺寸和一些季節性影響，這會有點不穩定。但總的來說，我認為我們的營運商計劃將更加負載水平，但第四季度肯定與年底相關的季節性，並且更多地與非營運資產相關。

And then just on the operating cost side. The third quarter results were $12.57 a BOE. I know you mentioned there was some additional work progress going on in that quarter. Can you give us a sense of your comfort level and bringing that number down below $12 into Q4 to submit the updated guidance?

然後是營運成本方面。第三季業績為每股 12.57 美元。我知道您提到該季度正在進行一些額外的工作進展。您能否讓我們了解一下您的舒適程度，並在第四季度將這一數字降至 12 美元以下以提交更新的指導？

Yes. The -- I think you're referring to -- you're talking about OpEx?

是的。我想你指的是營運支出？

OpEx.

營運支出。

Yes. Yes. Yes. Okay. So it's come down by a couple of bucks on a unit basis since closing of the deal, and that's certainly related to the blending effect of the lower cash cost structure along the U.S. Gulf Coast and just the dilution and blending effects of that lower cash cost structure. We always continue to work on both sourcing labor costs and just operational efficiency to maintain as best we can flat to declining. I think over time, we're going to see probably consistent but light downward pressure on those costs. That is to say, I think if there's a bias, it's biased downward, but it's not going to be, I think, earth-shattering in terms of just how much it moves the needle. So from $12.75 a BOE, is it going to dramatically drop under $10 for 2024? I don't think so.

是的。是的。是的。好的。因此，自交易完成以來，單位價格下降了幾美元，這肯定與美國墨西哥灣沿岸較低現金成本結構的混合效應以及較低現金成本的稀釋和混合效應有關結構。我們始終持續致力於採購勞動成本和營運效率，以盡可能維持下降趨勢。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們將看到這些成本可能持續但輕微的下行壓力。也就是說，我認為如果有偏差，它是向下偏差的，但我認為，就其推動程度而言，它不會是驚天動地的。那麼，到 2024 年，每桶油當量 12.75 美元會大幅跌至 10 美元以下嗎？我不這麼認為。

What I would say is we'll probably see consistent steady downward pressure on that number as we continue to make -- yes, as we continue to make improvements operationally, we tend to continue to do the things that work and not repeat the things that don't work and squeeze out waste and access out of that system. I would target $11 to $12, if I were pushing out into 2024 as a range. And I think that would be pretty responsible in terms of a '24 cost range.

我想說的是，隨著我們繼續改進，我們可能會看到這個數字持續穩定的下行壓力——是的，隨著我們繼續在營運上進行改進，我們傾向於繼續做有效的事情，而不是重複那些行之有效的事情。不工作並從該系統中擠出浪費和訪問權。如果我將目標推至 2024 年，我的目標是 11 至 12 美元。我認為這對於 24 小時的成本範圍來說是相當負責任的。

Got it. Appreciate that. And then just final question. Shifting gears over to the Duvernay. You have 6 wells there now that you brought on. You've got some good production results behind it. Can you give us a sense of what your next steps are in the Duvernay?

知道了。感謝。然後是最後一個問題。換檔至 Duvernay。現在你已經在那裡挖了 6 口井了。您已經取得了一些良好的生產成果。能為我們介紹一下您在迪韋爾內的下一步計畫嗎？

Yes. Yes. So we're very excited about the Duvernay. I couldn't be more proud of the team. We have built really powerful models, statistical models, mathematical models and continue to populate those models, build those out, history match those models and converge on results that we think will continue to push higher going forward. But as you know, we're also rigorous in terms of our commercial expectations, and we want to do this on a basis that is systematic. And so I would expect -- even though we don't have the budget built for 2024 yet, I would expect more than 6 wells, and I would expect probably less than 9 wells.

是的。是的。所以我們對 Duvernay 感到非常興奮。我為這支球隊感到無比驕傲。我們已經建立了非常強大的模型、統計模型、數學模型，並繼續填充這些模型，構建這些模型，歷史與這些模型相匹配，並彙聚到我們認為將繼續推動更高水平的結果上。但正如你所知，我們對商業期望也很嚴格，我們希望在系統的基礎上做到這一點。因此，我預計，儘管我們還沒有製定 2024 年的預算，但我預計會有超過 6 口井，而且我預計可能會少於 9 口井。

So somewhere between 6 and 9 is a reasonable step up as we approach kind of the second year of demonstration, probably the last year of demonstration if I were to lean in a bit and then we'll step up the pace of development after 2024. So there's still more science to do. We want to better understand all the nature of variability, but we've got a lot of data, both delineation and all the various independent variables that drive variation in the output. We've got a strong understanding of those. And so I think next year will be another really good year of development in terms of performance and cost and another year of really strong demonstration toward full commerciality and development -- full development pace.

因此，當我們接近演示的第二年時，6 到9 之間的某個位置是一個合理的進步，如果我稍微傾斜一點的話，可能是演示的最後一年，然後我們將在2024 年之後加快開發步伐。所以還有更多的科學工作要做。我們希望更好地理解變異性的所有本質，但我們有大量數據，包括描述和驅動輸出變化的所有各種自變量。我們對這些有深入的了解。因此，我認為明年將是性能和成本方面又一個真正良好發展的一年，也是全面商業化和發展（全面發展步伐）真正強有力展示的一年。

So let me pause there, here and see if you've got a follow-up on the Duvernay.

因此，讓我在這裡暫停一下，看看你們是否有關於杜韋內的後續行動。

No, that was great color.

不，那是很棒的顏色。

Our next question comes from Jasper (inaudible) of (inaudible).

我們的下一個問題來自 Jasper（聽不清楚）或（聽不清楚）。

Most of my questions have already been answered. But I have one about the blending expenses, which has been -- have been trending down for the prior year. Could you add some color to this? And what we could expect blending expenses per barrel of heavy oil to average for next year?

我的大部分問題已經得到解答。但我有一個關於混合費用的問題，去年的混合費用一直呈下降趨勢。你能為這個添加一些顏色嗎？我們預計明年每桶重油的平均混合費用是多少？

Yes. I'm sorry, I'm not -- Jasper, I'm not quite sure I'm picking up which category of expense you're asking about. Just try me one more time.

是的。抱歉，我不是——賈斯珀，我不太確定我正在選擇您所詢問的費用類別。請再嘗試一次。

Sorry, blending expenses. blending.

抱歉，混合費用。混合。

Oh, blending expense. Okay. Yes, yes, yes. Okay. I would expect that blending expenses are going to be related to the value of condensate, relative to the value of our heavy oil crude stream. So I think the value of our heavy oil crude stream that needs to be blended with the diluent is going to trend up over time. I think that's going to be a benchmark -- at a benchmark level and also at a higher kind of asset-level netback level. And so -- and I think (inaudible) or all the diluents are probably also going to be linked to that. So maybe the blending expenses are going to be flat to potentially declining a little bit, but I would expect in the same way that I mentioned on OpEx -- on unit OpEx probably slight downward pressure, but I wouldn't expect it to be a real needle mover. I just think it's going to feel like and look like operational efficiency improvements.

哦，混合費用。好的。對對對。好的。我預計混合費用將與凝析油的價值相關，相對於我們重油原油流的價值。因此，我認為需要與稀釋劑混合的重油原油流的價值將隨著時間的推移而上升。我認為這將成為一個基準——在基準水平上，也是在更高的資產淨回值水平上。所以 - 我認為（聽不清楚）或所有稀釋劑也可能與此有關。因此，也許混合費用將持平，甚至可能略有下降，但我預計，就像我在營運支出上提到的那樣——單位營運支出可能會出現輕微的下行壓力，但我不認為它會是一個真正的針動器。我只是認為這會讓人感覺和看起來像是營運效率的提高。

This concludes the question-and-answer session from the phone lines. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Brian Ector for questions received online.

電話問答環節就此結束。我想將會議轉回布萊恩·埃克托 (Brian Ector)，以解答網路上收到的問題。

Okay. Great. Thanks, Ariel. And we do have a few questions that have been submitted from the webcast and so I'll moderate ease now for you, Eric. And there are a number of investors that have reached out this morning, looking for a little bit more color or clarity around our sort of free cash flow allocation policy. So how do we decide between share buybacks growing the dividend and debt repayment. And what are the decisions that go into that type of criteria. And then as a follow-up, an investor asking, should we be paying debt down first prior to share buybacks and dividends. So I think they're all kind of interrelated.

好的。偉大的。謝謝，阿里爾。我們確實有一些從網路廣播提交的問題，所以我現在會為你緩和一點，埃里克。今天早上，有許多投資者已經聯繫我們，尋求有關我們的自由現金流分配政策的更多色彩或清晰度。那我們如何在股票回購、增加股利和償還債務之間做出決定。符合此類標準的決策是什麼？接下來，投資人會問，我們是否應該在股票回購和股利之前先償還債務。所以我認為它們都是相互關聯的。

You bet. Those are great questions. And I wish there was just a mathematical calculation one could do to arrive at the precise allocation. But in the end, it boils down to a couple of things. It boils down to subjective judgment on the part of the management team and the Board as well as listening carefully to our investors, right, the shareholder base taking in that feedback and having these conversations. And so as I introduced this idea of the linkage between our buyback program and the idea of potentially rebasing the dividend over time on a proportional kind of basis.

你打賭。這些都是很好的問題。我希望人們可以透過數學計算來得出精確的分配。但最終，它可以歸結為幾件事。這歸結為管理團隊和董事會的主觀判斷，以及仔細聆聽我們的投資者的意見，對吧，股東基礎接受回饋並進行這些對話。因此，當我介紹我們的回購計劃與隨著時間的推移可能按比例調整股息的想法之間的聯繫的想法時。

Then we will listen to the feedback on that conversation, and we will try to figure out is the balance of the feedback leaning towards that being a good idea or that not being a good idea or that not being a good idea because as everyone knows, there is a fixed base dividend, which is the way we have it structured, which is a function of the $1 per share or in our case $0.01 per share per quarter paid out obviously quarterly. So that's a function of the share count and then there are variable dividends that can expand and contract on a quarterly basis according to some mathematical model. And then there are special dividends.

然後我們將聽取有關該對話的反饋，我們將嘗試找出反饋的平衡是否傾向於是一個好主意或不是一個好主意，因為眾所周知，有一個固定的基本股息，這就是我們的結構方式，它是每股1 美元的函數，或在我們的例子中每季每股0.01 美元，顯然是按季度支付的。因此，這是股票數量的函數，然後存在可以根據某些數學模型按季度擴大和縮小的可變股息。然後還有特別股息。

And generally speaking, you get less credit in your share price for special dividends than you do for variables and you get less credit in your share price or variables then you do fixed. Because the investment community can largely really begin to build in the return of a fixed base dividend predictably, whereas variables are a little harder and specials are very hard to predict. And so you don't tend to get a lot of value back in your share price for those on a go-forward basis.

一般來說，特別股息在股價中獲得的信用要少於變量，在股價或變量中獲得的信用也比固定股息少。因為投資界基本上可以真正開始建立可預測的固定基數股息回報，而變數則有點困難，特別是很難預測。因此，對於那些在未來的基礎上，你往往不會從你的股價中獲得很多價值。

So when it comes to what kind of dividend, we tend to lean toward 6 base dividends as a function of shares out, and we like this linkage to our share repurchase plan as a functional linkage between the two. When it comes to the allocation between share repurchases and a dividend, it really is about the -- our view of our cost of equity, relative to our view of the cost of debt on a risk-adjusted basis and then how much you return between the dividend and the repurchase plan as a function of the linkage I talked about.

因此，當談到什麼樣的股利時，我們傾向於將6 種基本股利作為股份流出的函數，並且我們喜歡將這種與我們的股票回購計劃的聯繫作為兩者之間的功能聯繫。當涉及股票回購和股息之間的分配時，這實際上是關於我們對股本成本的看法，相對於我們對風險調整後的債務成本的看法，以及您在兩者之間的回報率股息和回購計劃作為我談到的聯繫的函數。

But when you go away from dividends versus share repurchases and you ask yourself, share repurchases versus paying down debt, if you think about our cost of debt as, let's just call it, 8% for the sake of illustration and then you compare that to our cost of equity, which let's say, for the sake of argument, is in the high teens, potentially 20% based on our free cash flow yield. And then you risk adjust between the riskiness or uncertainty around the share repurchase versus a debt reduction, you would make a little bit of adjustment on that but still 16%, 18% is far higher return than, say, 8% on reduction of debt.

但是，當你不再考慮股息與股票回購，而是問問自己，股票回購與償還債務，如果你考慮我們的債務成本，為了說明起見，我們稱之為8%，然後你將其與我們的股本成本，為了方便討論，可以說是十幾歲左右，根據我們的自由現金流收益率，可能為 20%。然後你在股票回購的風險或不確定性與債務減少之間進行風險調整，你會對此進行一些調整，但仍然 16%、18% 的回報率遠高於 8% 的債務減少回報。

And so on that basis, we would say, when you have such a high free cash flow yield your cost of -- that reflects your cost of equity, and you should pay down the highest source of capital, which is your most expensive source which, in this case, is equity.

因此，在此基礎上，我們會說，當你擁有如此高的自由現金流時，你的成本反映了你的股本成本，你應該支付最高的資本來源，這是你最昂貴的來源， ，在這種情況下，就是權益。

And so we would say bias toward paying down your equity or buying back your shares. But as soon as that free cash flow yield comes down, because our share price is appreciating into it, that yield will come down, and it will make that balance harder, which is the natural conversion of share repurchases toward debt repayment. And that's why we've been kind of 50-50 in this allocation. I know it's messy, and I know I said a lot of words. But in the end, these are the considerations we have to roll around with. And in the end, that's the decision we have to make.

因此，我們會說傾向於償還你的股本或回購你的股票。但一旦自由現金流收益率下降，因為我們的股價正在升值，收益率就會下降，這將使這種平衡變得更加困難，這是股票回購向債務償還的自然轉換。這就是為什麼我們的分配比例是 50-50。我知道這很亂，我也知道我說了很多話。但最終，這些都是我們必須考慮的因素。最後，這就是我們必須做出的決定。

Now I also think it's really important to make progress on paying down debt, even though you're comparing an 8% cost of debt capital to 16% cost of equity capital on a risk-adjusted basis, that's still important to pay down the debt. And the reason I think it's important is because for every dollar of debt you paid down within your EV construct, if EV stays the same, our enterprise value stays the same, then $1 of debt reduction moves over to $1 of market capitalization accretion. So there's that linkage as well. In the end, it's subjective.

現在我還認為在償還債務方面取得進展非常重要，即使你在風險調整的基礎上比較 8% 的債務資本成本與 16% 的股權資本成本，這對於償還債務仍然很重要。我認為這很重要的原因是，你在 EV 結構中每償還 1 美元的債務，如果 EV 保持不變，我們的企業價值保持不變，那麼 1 美元的債務減少就會導致 1 美元的市值增加。所以也存在這種聯繫。歸根結底，這是主觀的。

And for that reason, we're going to have to keep having this conversation, I think. We have to continue listening to our shareholder base. and implementing what feels like scratches the itch of the broadest cross-section of shareholders. Let me just stop there, Brian. Do you think that gets it.

出於這個原因，我認為我們將不得不繼續進行這種對話。我們必須繼續傾聽股東的意見。實施感覺上是最廣泛的股東的渴望。讓我就此打住，布萊恩。你認為這樣就明白了嗎？

I think you captured it well. Keeping along the same theme, if we were to fully execute on our NCIB program, so purchasing 10% of our funded float during the year, would Baytex consider a substantial issuer bid if the free cash flow supported it.

我認為你捕捉得很好。保持同樣的主題，如果我們要全面執行我們的 NCIB 計劃，那麼在年內購買我們融資的 10% 的流通量，如果自由現金流支持的話，Baytex 是否會考慮發行人的實質性出價。

Yes. I think put very plainly, we would consider it. And have thought about it and talked about it, just like the individual who's asking the question has thought about it. Right now, it's pretty early. I think the NCIB has given us plenty of room and I would anticipate that our NCIB for the July 1, 2024, ended into June 30, 2025, is also going to be substantial in terms of its total number of shares based on the float we project. So we may not have to have that conversation or make that decision soon, but we do consider it for sure.

是的。我認為簡單地說，我們會考慮它。並且思考過它並談論過它，就像提出問題的人思考過它一樣。現在看來，還很早。 I think the NCIB has given us plenty of room and I would anticipate that our NCIB for the July 1, 2024, ended into June 30, 2025, is also going to be substantial in terms of its total number of shares based on the float we專案.因此，我們可能不必很快進行這樣的對話或做出決定，但我們確實會考慮這一點。

And then the last question, I think, along this theme of capital allocation and share repurchases. We talked a little bit today about the view that our shares are undervalued and a couple of investors are asking like what do you consider to be the sort of current fair value of our shares there. I don't have a tough question to answer, but I wanted to put that out for you.

我認為最後一個問題是圍繞資本配置和股票回購這個主題的。今天我們討論了我們的股票被低估的觀點，一些投資者問，您認為我們股票當前的公允價值是多少。我沒有什麼很難回答的問題，但我想把這個問題告訴你。

Yes, it is a tough one because it depends on your view of pricing. I think if you take some fusion of a consensus estimate, consensus bank forecasts over time combined with the forwards, which I think underrepresent the future price environment. But if you take some fusion of a consensus estimate and a forward strip, maybe that's close. And if you assume that, I think you probably could take some average of the analyst estimates, they're all very good models. Brian and the analysts work carefully together to ensure the models are well informed. And there's not a stale forecast out there. So I would say, taking some average median or central tendency to the analyst target prices might be the best place to look.

是的，這是一項艱難的任務，因為這取決於您對定價的看法。我認為，如果你將共識估計、共識銀行預測與遠期結合，我認為這不足以代表未來的價格環境。但如果你將共識估計和前向分析結合起來，也許就很接近了。如果你這麼認為，我想你可能可以採用分析師估計的一些平均值，它們都是非常好的模型。 Brian 和分析師密切合作，確保模型充分了解情況。而且目前還沒有陳舊的預測。所以我想說，對分析師目標價格採取一些平均中位數或集中趨勢可能是最好的選擇。

Thanks, Eric. And you have to pass this question over to Chad Kalmakoff, our Chief Financial Officer. We talked a little bit about the debt repayment. The question relates more to our debt structure chat. Can you comment on the components of our debt is at floating rate, the interest rates we pay any interest rate swaps associated with our debt structure.

謝謝，埃里克。你必須把這個問題轉交給我們的財務長查德·卡爾馬科夫（Chad Kalmakoff）。我們討論了一些關於償還債務的問題。這個問題更與我們的債務結構討論有關。您能否評論一下我們債務的組成部分是浮動利率，我們支付與我們的債務結構相關的任何利率互換的利率。

Sure. Thanks, Brian. Yes. So Q3, like we mentioned earlier, we have CAD 2.7 billion outstanding in debt. In that, we had CAD 1.7 billion of that being our long-term notes. Those are all U.S. dollar denominated notes. So $1.2 billion U.S. dollar denominated notes. Those have interest rates of 8.5% and 8.75%. So USD 800 million at 8.5%, USD 400 million at 8.75%. So obviously those are fixed 2027 and 2030. The remainder of our debt is on our credit facility, that's so we call it CAD 1 billion on the credit facility. That's a floating debt structure. Generally speaking, it's kind of based on the margin, but think of that as kind of SOFR plus [2.25]. We will keep that flowing, we do not have any integrate swaps against that debt.

當然。謝謝，布萊恩。是的。因此，正如我們之前提到的，第三季我們有 27 億加元的未償債務。其中，我們有 17 億加元是我們的長期票據。這些都是以美元計價的紙幣。因此，有 12 億美元的紙幣。這些利率分別為 8.5% 和 8.75%。因此，8 億美元的利率為 8.5%，4 億美元的利率為 8.75%。顯然，這些是在 2027 年和 2030 年固定的。我們的其餘債務是在我們的信貸安排上，所以我們稱之為 10 億加元的信貸安排。這就是浮動債務結構。一般來說，它是基於邊際的，但可以將其視為 SOFR plus [2.25]。我們將保持這種流動，我們沒有針對該債務的任何整合掉期。

Thanks, Chad. And then a couple of questions related to free cash flow. Most of the free cash flow over the last 4 months have been directed towards the share repurchases. And if you looked at our Q3 free cash flow of $158 million, maybe lower than some might have expected. I think there's some seasonality around capital. Eric, can you just elaborate on the free cash flow profile as it relates to our business and capital spending on a quarterly basis and how it averages out over the course of the year.

謝謝，查德。然後是一些與自由現金流相關的問題。過去 4 個月的大部分自由現金流都用於股票回購。如果你看看我們第三季的自由現金流為 1.58 億美元，可能會低於一些人的預期。我認為資本存在一些季節性。艾瑞克（Eric），您能否詳細說明一下自由現金流狀況，因為它與我們的業務和季度資本支出相關，以及它在一年中的平均情況。

Yes, there's definite seasonality. So folks remember back to Q1, Q1 is always a strong start to the year and a lot of -- because it's frozen ground, really good operating conditions in terms of the ability to execute a program reliably, although it's cold, you can execute well. And so drilling capital, you really get after your program and that was a significant capital program. And remember, that was Baytex stand-alone. Then in Q2, you've got a lot of production with a lower capital program. So we generated almost $100 million of free cash flow in Q2 as a Baytex stand-alone unit. And then in Q3, as the listener and writer rightly points out $158 million free cash flow. But we spent $409 million in CapEx. And that $409 million, as Brian pointed out, is a function really of seasonality. Q3 is a really good quarter for getting after it.

是的，有一定的季節性。所以人們記得回到第一季度，第一季度總是今年的強勁開局，而且很多——因為它是冰凍的地面，就可靠地執行程序的能力而言，運行條件確實很好，儘管天氣很冷，但你可以很好地執行。因此，鑽探資本，你真正得到了你的計劃，這是一個重要的資本計劃。請記住，那是 Baytex 獨立的。然後在第二季度，您可以用較低的資本計劃進行大量生產。因此，作為 Baytex 的獨立部門，我們在第二季產生了近 1 億美元的自由現金流。然後在第三季度，聽眾和作者正確地指出了 1.58 億美元的自由現金流。但我們在資本支出上花了 4.09 億美元。正如 Brian 指出的那樣，這 4.09 億美元實際上是季節性的函數。第三季是一個非常適合追趕的季度。

Lots of drilling and completions activity in all of our active areas across the entire portfolio. And then Q4, we're getting the benefit of a rising production into Q4. So as everyone noticed in our release, we're forecasting 158,000 to 160,000 BOE a day for Q4. And in that strength against a lower capital spend means there's a great deal of free cash flow left over. So free cash flow kind of is what comes out the bottom, and it's very dependent on not only operating cash flow or AFF, but also the lumpiness of your capital program. And the capital program is lumpy because of seasonal effect and at point in the year, also these sort of base effects around budget season that comes at the end of the year, which I talked about earlier. So let me stop there, Brian, and see if that...

我們整個投資組合的所有活躍領域都進行了大量的鑽井和完井活動。然後是第四季度，我們將受益於第四季度產量的成長。因此，正如大家在我們的發布中註意到的那樣，我們預測第四季度每天產量為 158,000 至 160,000 桶油當量。在資本支出下降的情況下，這意味著還有大量自由現金流。因此，自由現金流是從底部出現的，它不僅取決於營運現金流或 AFF，還取決於資本計劃的塊度。由於季節性影響和一年中的某個時間點，以及我之前談到的年底預算季節的基本影響，資本計劃是不穩定的。所以讓我停在這裡，布萊恩，看看是否...

And then a couple -- one more sort of financial related question, and I think we'll shift into a couple of more operational conversations, but maybe Chad over to you again on our current WCS hedging program on the heavy oil side.

然後是幾個 - 又一個與財務相關的問題，我想我們將進行更多的操作性對話，但也許查德會再次向您介紹我們當前的重油方面的 WCS 對沖計劃。

So we do have some heavy oil hedges in your Q4, I think, miles hedging maybe 8,000 barrels a day, and they are hedged at around $14 here for Q4. Into 2024, we have pretty minimal hedging on WCS basis. We have a bit of transportation hedging for the first half of the year and then the rest of the year we're unhedged.

因此，我認為，我們在第四季度確實有一些重油對沖，里程對沖可能每天 8,000 桶，第四季度的對沖價格約為 14 美元。到 2024 年，我們在 WCS 基礎上的對沖非常少。我們在今年上半年進行了一些交通對沖，然後在今年剩下的時間裡我們沒有對沖。

Eric, do you want to add some color around our expectations on WCS as we move through 2024?

Eric，隨著 2024 年的到來，您是否想為我們對 WCS 的期望添加一些色彩？

Yes. Thanks, Brian. I think -- at least from what we've read and the intelligence we can gather, it sounds like TMX will be sort of mechanically complete in Q1 of '24. This is what we read. This is what we're told. And there's a dispersion in data, but the central tendency of the various pieces of intelligence we get seems to point at Q1 mechanically complete. That same dispersed bit of intelligence also tends to point toward line fill, which is kind of already -- some of it is already taking place because this is a big project, and it's been built in segments. I think some of the line fill is already completed, and this is what we've been able to ascertain. And so Q1 mechanically complete, Q1 continuing line fill and really line fill progressing.

是的。謝謝，布萊恩。我認為——至少從我們讀到的內容和我們收集到的情報來看，聽起來 TMX 將在 24 年第一季機械完成。這就是我們讀到的。這就是我們被告知的。數據存在分散性，但我們獲得的各種情報的集中趨勢似乎都指向第一季機械完成。同樣分散的情報也傾向於指向線路填充，這已經是——其中一些已經發生，因為這是一個大項目，並且它是分段構建的。我認為一些線條填充已經完成，這是我們已經能夠確定的。所以 Q1 機械地完成，Q1 繼續行填充並且真正行填充正在進行。

And then we're certainly expecting Q2 deliveries through TMX. This is the best information we can gather. I think everyone has access to disperse intelligence on this. So we might all have slightly different collection of data, but that's what we think and that's what we expect. And we think once TMX comes on, in early 2024, we expect the WCS/WTI basis differential to narrow into the kind of $10 to $12 per barrel range. And we think that becomes effectively described by the pipe economics to the U.S. Gulf Coast on the Enbridge mainline.

然後我們當然期待第二季度透過 TMX 交付。這是我們能收集到的最好的資訊。我認為每個人都有機會獲得這方面的情報。因此，我們收集的數據可能略有不同，但這就是我們的想法和期望。我們認為，一旦 TMX 在 2024 年初啟動，我們預計 WCS/WTI 基差將縮小至每桶 10 至 12 美元的範圍。我們認為，安橋幹線至美國墨西哥灣沿岸的管道經濟有效地描述了這一點。

Thanks, Eric. We're going to shift now to talk a little bit more. We had some questions come in on the assets themselves and the performance during the third quarter. First question relates to the Eagle Ford operated acreage. Eric, the results that we're seeing, are they in line with our expectations and any refracs planned on the assets.

謝謝，埃里克。我們現在要多談一點。我們對資產本身和第三季的表現提出了一些疑問。第一個問題涉及伊格爾福特的經營面積。艾瑞克，我們看到的結果是否符合我們的預期以及對資產計畫的任何重新壓裂。

So the answer to the first question is, yes, in line. We've been modeling expectations like this. We've been working through the designs and the well performance expectations. So yes, Q3 meets our expectations, and we feel good about the way it represents the assets on a go-forward basis. We do have refracs plan, and we continue to run -- we continue to think about the refrac program as kind of a parallel, if you like, a sidecar to the primary channel of drilling and completions development, primary capital development in the play along our operated portion of the play, as I described earlier, 2 rigs level loaded running full time through the program. That's a very efficient operation because these 2 H&P rigs are some of the best rigs in H&P's fleet, certainly some of the top-performing rigs in the Eagle Ford. And they've been with Ranger now Baytex for years. So they're very efficient.

所以第一個問題的答案是，是的，符合。我們一直在對這樣的期望進行建模。我們一直在研究設計和良好的性能預期。所以，是的，第三季符合我們的預期，我們對它在未來基礎上代表資產的方式感到滿意。我們確實有重複壓裂計劃，並且我們會繼續運行——如果你願意的話，我們繼續將重複壓裂計劃視為鑽井和完井開發主要渠道的一個邊車，以及沿線的主要資本開發正如我之前所描述的，我們操作的部分遊戲，2 個裝備水平加載並在整個程序中全職運行。這是一個非常有效率的操作，因為這 2 台 H&P 鑽孔機是 H&P 車隊中最好的鑽孔機之一，當然也是 Eagle Ford 中性能最好的鑽孔機之一。他們已經在 Ranger 現在的 Baytex 工作了很多年。所以他們非常有效率。

And then the Liberty frac crew also have been with the team on an extended basis runs very, very well. So that's clear and DUC inventory. That's a nice level loaded, highly operationally efficient channel of progress on development capital. And then a side car to that is refracs. And the refrac program, there's a lot to think about. There's the candidate selection, which is, can you get in and get out with your workover operations and prep the line or do you have good zonal isolation. And is it a well that you think you can contain the fracture stimulation energy in the fairway or the stimulated reservoir volume that you're trying to refrac. And so there's a lot to think about in refracs, but we're quite encouraged and continue to progress that sidecar channel of capital development in our Eagle Ford. And we're going to learn a lot there from our peers in the area who have more experience doing it. We sit on task groups and technical groups. And so there's a lot to learn, but we're very excited about it.

然後，Liberty 壓裂人員也一直在團隊中長期工作，運作得非常非常好。這樣 DUC 庫存就很清楚了。這是一個水準良好、運作高效率的發展資本進步管道。然後是折射。對於折射計劃，有很多事情需要考慮。候選人的選擇是，你能否進出修井作業並準備生產線，或者你是否有良好的區域隔離。您是否認為您可以將裂縫增產能量包含在您嘗試折射的航道或增產儲層體積中？因此，在折射方面有很多需要考慮的地方，但我們非常受鼓舞，並將繼續推進我們 Eagle Ford 的資本開發邊車頻道。我們將從該領域擁有更多經驗的同行那裡學到很多東西。我們參加任務組和技術組。所以還有很多東西要學習，但我們對此感到非常興奮。

Eric, can you comment on the range sort of expectations for the current exploratory wells in our 2 new areas here in Western Canada. Just a range of expectations on the program.

艾瑞克（Eric），您能否評論一下對加拿大西部兩個新區域當前探井的各種期望。只是對該計劃的一系列期望。

Yes. So the (inaudible), Morinville, we've described these in our prior conversations as 30 to 100 locations each, so the (inaudible), Morinville, somewhere in that range. I'm confident in the higher end of that range because the lower end has a pretty tight risking on it, that is to say it's heavily risked and I feel good about the fact that we'll probably get higher on the range there in terms of locations in the (inaudible), Morinville, and similar kind of 30 to 100 locations at the Waseca at Cold Lake.

是的。所以（聽不清楚）Morinville，我們在之前的談話中將這些描述為每個 30 到 100 個地點，所以（聽不清楚）Morinville 就在這個範圍內的某個地方。我對該範圍的高端充滿信心，因為低端的風險相當嚴格，也就是說，風險很大，而且我對我們可能會在該範圍內獲得更高的事實感到滿意（聽不清）Morinville 的地點以及Cold Lake 的Waseca 的30 到100 個類似地點。

We're continuing to develop those in Q3 and even today. And so we've got additional multi-lats that we have underway and that we will continue to drill and bring online in Q4. And so there'll be more to talk about in Q4. Even though those are not needle moving assets in terms of the number of locations and the production. They do continue to really demonstrate that this is a substantial footprint across a highly prospective fairway. And we feel really good about the steady diet of both discoveries and the geoscience team leading to new accumulation discovery and extensions. And so that just -- it feels like a steady diet that will continue on.

我們將在第三季乃至今天繼續開發這些功能。因此，我們正在進行更多的多拉特項目，我們將繼續鑽探並在第四季度上線。因此，第四季將會有更多討論。儘管就地點數量和產量而言，這些資產並不是針鋒相對的資產。他們確實繼續真正證明這是一個跨越極具前景的球道的巨大足跡。我們對這些發現和地球科學團隊的穩定飲食感到非常滿意，這導致了新的累積發現和擴展。所以，這感覺就像是一種會持續下去的穩定飲食。

Eric, I think we're pushing almost an hour. So there are more questions. If we don't get to your questions here, we will try to follow up with you individually. So maybe 2 more, Eric. An investor here asking about the expected cost savings from the merger. Have we achieved what we expected from a synergy standpoint?

艾瑞克，我想我們已經快要一個小時了。所以還有更多的問題。如果我們無法在此解答您的問題，我們將嘗試與您單獨聯絡。艾瑞克，也許還有 2 個。一位投資人詢問合併後預期節省的成本。從協同的角度來看，我們是否達到了我們的預期？

We certainly have made a lot of progress. The basis of the merger between Baytex and Ranger was not ultimately predicated on synergy savings. The synergy values were pretty modest in the outset. And we have accomplished all of those that we set out to accomplish. Again, they were pretty modest. It was eliminating duplication in things like back office, financial audit, IQRE or independent reserves audit, the redundant boards, the redundant leadership at the top part of the organization. So all of those, including a whole bunch of kind of redundant IT and software subscriptions, all of that has been extracted.

我們確實取得了很大進步。 Baytex 和 Ranger 合併的最終目的並不是為了節省綜效。一開始，協同價值相當有限。我們已經完成了我們打算完成的所有目標。再說一遍，他們非常謙虛。它消除了後台、財務審計、IQRE 或獨立儲備審計、冗餘董事會、組織高層冗餘領導等方面的重複。因此，所有這些，包括一大堆冗餘的 IT 和軟體訂閱，都已被提取。

And so yes, given the fact that they were pretty modest to start with, we have achieved them. There's still a lot of additional meat on the bone, and we will continue to drive additional savings forward. And that will be -- that will appear like operational efficiency over time, the way we described, say, the OpEx, the unit OpEx and the blending expenses over time, just consistently getting a little bit better over time. So that's the way I think about synergy progress.

所以，是的，考慮到它們一開始就相當溫和，我們已經實現了它們。骨頭上還有很多額外的肉，我們將繼續推動更多的節省。隨著時間的推移，這將表現為營運效率，就像我們所描述的那樣，營運支出、單位營運支出和混合費用隨著時間的推移，隨著時間的推移，會不斷變得更好。這就是我對協同進步的看法。

Another question, a little bit different, more of an ESG focus and it might relate it to our Duvernay completions. But the shareholder is asking if Baytex has any interest in low energy or chemical or filter wastewater treatment technology. So it's a bit of a different question that I thought I would ask.

另一個問題，有點不同，更多的是 ESG 焦點，它可能與我們的 Duvernay 完成有關。但股東詢問 Baytex 是否對低能耗或化學或過濾廢水處理技術感興趣。所以我想我會問一個有點不同的問題。

Yes. So one of the ways to think about this is in both the Viking and the Duvernay, we are working very hard to lower our freshwater intensity. And in particular, in the Duvernay, for example, we use municipal wastewater affluent as makeup fluid for fracture stimulation. And that's particularly helpful because it helps lower the freshwater intensity of the operations. And in the Viking, of course, we use effluent from our (inaudible) Thermal operation, and we use that as makeup fluid for a fracture stimulation in Viking. So these are really helpful kind of intensity measures on an ESG perspective -- from an ESG perspective in our fracture stimulation work in Canada. And we're always looking to apply new technologies to creating better freshwater streams, less expensive freshwater streams and, in particular, the ability to use wastewater sources as freshwater for makeup.

是的。因此，思考這個問題的方法之一是在維京河和杜韋爾內河中，我們正在努力降低淡水強度。特別是，例如，在 Duvernay，我們使用都市廢水作為壓裂增產的補充液。這特別有用，因為它有助於降低作業的淡水強度。當然，在維京號中，我們使用（聽不清楚）熱操作的廢水，並將其用作維京號壓裂增產的補充液。因此，從 ESG 角度來看，這些強度措施確實很有幫助——從我們加拿大壓裂增產工作的 ESG 角度來看。我們一直在尋求應用新技術來創造更好的淡水流、更便宜的淡水流，特別是利用廢水源作為補充淡水的能力。

Two last quick questions, Eric, I promised breakeven on oil pricing.

最後兩個簡單的問題，艾瑞克，我承諾在石油定價上達到損益兩平。

Breakeven on oil pricing down into the, I'd say, low to mid-40s across the entire portfolio. And getting better as we squeeze more efficiencies out of both the capital program and the operating expense program.

我想說，整個投資組合的石油價格損益平衡點都在 40 多美元左右。隨著我們從資本計劃和營運費用計劃中榨取更高的效率，情況會變得更好。

And we're going to wrap up with this one question because I know it's something that Eric, you're fairly passionate about. And this comment comes from a shareholder who says that there are others out there and shareholders that are frustrated with our share price, unable to gain traction besides the buybacks. How do you plan to work to get that Baytex share price reflective of the fair value that you see in them.

我們將結束這個問題，因為我知道這是埃里克（Eric）你相當熱衷的事情。此評論來自一位股東，他表示還有其他人和股東對我們的股價感到沮喪，除了回購之外無法獲得吸引力。您計劃如何努力讓 Baytex 股價反映您所看到的公允價值。

Yes, it's a great question. I, too, feel like it's been a long time. I'm reminded by the fact that we started this conversation about the merger between Ranger and Baytex on February 28. And it was several months to close, and we released just a partial Q2. So Q3 is really the first full quarter. And when you find yourself in a show-me status or show-me mode, basically, all you could do is deliver results. And I think because Q3 is the first 4 quarter of delivering results, it really is the first opportunity for us to have showcased the full strength of the portfolio, the full strength of the assets, the skills and talents and experience of our team. And I think Q3 will go a long way to firming up the confidence that others have in the asset base and the team that I've had all along.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我也覺得好久不見了。我想起了這樣一個事實：我們在 2 月 28 日開始了有關 Ranger 和 Baytex 合併的對話。花了幾個月的時間才結束，而且我們只發布了第二季度的部分內容。所以第三季其實是第一個完整的季度。當你發現自己處於「向我展示」狀態或「向我展示」模式時，基本上，你所能做的就是交付成果。我認為，因為第三季度是交付業績的前四個季度，這確實是我們第一次有機會展示投資組合的全部實力、資產的全部實力、我們團隊的技能、才能和經驗。我認為第三季將大大增強其他人對我一直擁有的資產基礎和團隊的信心。

Q4 will also reinforce that and then full year and then reserves. But it is a process, but it takes time to show the world because these have to come out on quarterly cycles. And so here we are in November, releasing our first full quarter of results. And I'm quite pleased and expect the good performance to continue through the year and well into the future.

第四季也將加強這一點，然後是全年，然後是儲備。但這是一個過程，但需要時間向世界展示，因為這些必須按季度週期發布。因此，我們在 11 月發布了第一個完整季度的業績。我很高興，並希望今年和未來都能繼續保持良好的表現。

That's terrific, Eric. Thanks everyone for spending near at the last hour with us today. This is going to conclude the Q3 conference call and webcast. Thanks everyone for participating. Have a great day.

太棒了，埃里克。感謝大家今天在最後一小時與我們一起度過。第三季電話會議和網路廣播即將結束。感謝大家的參與。祝你有美好的一天。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有個愉快的一天。