Black Stone Minerals LP (BSM) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Black Stone Minerals 3Q Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call is being recorded. I will be standing by if you should need any assistance. At this time, it is my pleasure to turn the conference over to the Director of Finance, Mark Meaux. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Black Stone Minerals 第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話正在錄音。如果您需要任何幫助，我將隨時待命。此時此刻，我很高興將會議交給財務總監 Mark Meaux。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning to everyone. Thank you for joining us either by phone or online for Black Stone Minerals Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website along with the earnings release, which was issued last night. Before we start, I'd like to advise you that we will be making forward-looking statements during this call about our plans, expectations and assumptions regarding our future performance.

謝謝。各位早安。感謝您透過電話或線上參加 Black Stone Minerals 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音，並將與昨晚發布的收益報告一起發佈在我們的網站上。在我們開始之前，我想告訴您，我們將在本次電話會議中就我們未來業績的計劃、期望和假設做出前瞻性聲明。

These statements involve risks that may cause our actual results to differ materially from the results expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements. For a discussion of these risks, you should refer to the cautionary information about forward-looking statements in our press release from yesterday and the Risk Factors section of our 2022 10-K.

這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異的風險。有關這些風險的討論，您應該參閱我們昨天新聞稿中有關前瞻性陳述的警示信息以及我們 2022 年 10-K 的風險因素部分。

We may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful in evaluating our performance. Reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure and other information about these non-GAAP metrics are described in our earnings press release from yesterday, which can be found on our website at www.blackstoneminerals.com.

我們可能會參考某些我們認為有助於評估我們績效的非公認會計準則財務指標。我們昨天發布的收益新聞稿中描述了這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的協調以及有關這些非 GAAP 指標的其他信息，該新聞稿可以在我們的網站 www.blackstoneminerals.com 上找到。

Joining me on the call today from the company are Tom Carter, Chairman, CEO and President; Evan Kiefer, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer; Carrie Clark, Senior Vice President, Land and Commercial; Steve Putman, Senior Vice President and General Counsel; and Thad Montgomery, Vice President. I'll now turn the call over to Tom.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的有公司董事長、執行長兼總裁湯姆卡特 (Tom Carter)；基弗 (Evan Kiefer)，財務長兼財務主管； Carrie Clark，土地和商業高級副總裁； Steve Putman，資深副總裁兼總法律顧問；和副總統薩德·蒙哥馬利。我現在會把電話轉給湯姆。

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, and thanks for joining us for our Third Quarter 2013 results. We posted a solid quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $130 million for the quarter, an increase of 19% compared to the second quarter. This is now the sixth consecutive quarter where Black Stone has generated over $100 million in adjusted EBITDA.

謝謝你，馬克。早安，感謝您關注我們 2013 年第三季的業績。我們公佈了一個穩健的季度業績，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.3 億美元，比第二季度增長 19%。這是 Black Stone 連續第六個季度調整後 EBITDA 超過 1 億美元。

We generated total production volumes for the Third Quarter of [42.600] BOE per day, an increase of 18% from our second quarter volumes and now we expect to be in the upper end of our production guidance range of 37,000 to 39,000 BOE per day. Much of the increase was driven by royalty volumes, which increased 20% from the second quarter to [40.300] BOE per day and 8% above the third quarter of '22.

我們第三季的總產量為每天 42,600 桶油當量，比第二季的產量增加了 18%，現在我們預計將達到每天 37,000 至 39,000 桶油當量的產量指導範圍的上限。成長的大部分是由特許權使用費量推動的，特許權使用費量比第二季度增加了 20%，達到每天 [40.300] BOE，比 22 年第三季增加了 8%。

Primary driver of oil volumes was new wells coming online in the Permian. Additionally, we had 6 new wells come online in the third quarter in the Shelby Trough. Two of those were (inaudible) and 4 were XTO. Despite the lower rig counts in the Louisiana Haynesville this year due to lower pricing, we continue to see activity from new wells resulting in our Louisiana Haynesville volumes increasing 13% compared to the second quarter.

石油量的主要驅動力是二疊紀盆地的新井上線。此外，第三季我們在謝爾比海槽有 6 口新井上線。其中 2 個是（聽不清楚），4 個是 XTO。儘管由於價格較低，今年路易斯安那州海恩斯維爾的鑽機數量有所減少，但我們繼續看到新井的活動，導致路易斯安那州海恩斯維爾的產量比第二季度增長了 13%。

Aethon continues to ramp up production in the Shelby Trough and held the 6 rigs on location at the end of the third quarter, increasing from 5 rigs in the second quarter. To date, 28 wells have been turned to sales in the Shelby Trough under our development agreement with Aethon. And there are currently 35 wells in the drilling completion phase, which exceeds the minimum pace of 27 wells per year, Angelina and San Augustine counties that we expect to benefit our production in 2024.

Aethon 繼續提高謝爾比海槽的產量，並於第三季末持有 6 座鑽井平台，較第二季度的 5 座鑽井平台有所增加。迄今為止，根據我們與 Aethon 的開發協議，Shelby Trough 的 28 口井已轉為銷售。目前有 35 口井處於完井階段，超過了每年 27 口井的最低進度，我們預計安吉麗娜縣和聖奧古斯丁縣將在 2024 年受益於我們的生產。

We saw a 4% increase in rigs operating on our acreage in the third quarter. The increase driven by Haynesville and Gulf Coast with 76 rigs currently running as of September 30. Throughout the quarter, we saw rig count peak at 90 in August due to new drilling in the Permian from various operators. The U.S. rig count has contracted approximately 6% during the quarter, which highlights the natural ebbs and flows of development on a diversified acreage position such as ours.

第三季度，我們的鑽探面積增加了 4%。這一增長是由海恩斯維爾和墨西哥灣沿岸推動的，截至9 月30 日，目前正在運行的鑽機數量為76 台。整個季度，由於各個運營商在二疊紀進行了新鑽探，我們看到8 月鑽機數量達到高峰90 台。本季美國鑽機數量減少了約 6%，凸顯了像我們這樣的多元化油田開發的自然潮起潮落。

We previously announced that we are maintaining our distribution of $0.475 per unit or $1.90 on an annualized basis and as reported yesterday, represents a 1.25x coverage for the quarter. Despite the challenges with natural gas prices, we've been able to maintain a strong balance sheet through the year and hold the distribution at its highest level since going public.

我們先前宣布，我們將維持每單位 0.475 美元的分配，或按年化計算 1.90 美元，正如昨天報道的那樣，代表本季度的 1.25 倍覆蓋率。儘管面臨天然氣價格的挑戰，我們全年仍能保持強勁的資產負債表，並將分配保持在上市以來的最高水準。

Additionally, we have put into place a $150 million unit repurchase program that replaces our previous $75 million program. This will allow us the flexibility and ability to opportunistically buy our own units. It's been a great year, and we're encouraged by the positive momentum into the end of the year.

此外，我們還實施了 1.5 億美元的單位回購計劃，取代了先前 7,500 萬美元的計劃。這將使我們能夠靈活地、有能力地機會性地購買自己的單位。這是美好的一年，我們對年底的積極勢頭感到鼓舞。

Yesterday, we announced Evan Kiefer, has been appointed as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, removing the interim in his title. With over 10 years of experience with Blackstone, I congratulate him on his position. With that, I'll turn it over to Evan to walk through the details of the quarter. Evan?

昨天，我們宣布 Evan Kiefer 被任命為高級副總裁兼財務長兼財務主管，取消了他的臨時職位。憑藉著在 Blackstone 超過 10 年的經驗，我祝賀他就任。這樣，我將把它交給埃文，讓他詳細介紹本季的細節。埃文？

Perfect -- thank you, Tom, and good morning to everyone. As Tom pointed out, we had a very good third quarter. We reported average daily production of [42.600] BOE per day, which is an increase of 18% over our reported second quarter production. This was led by production from new wells coming online in the Permian as well as better-than-expected results in the Haynesville in the Shelby Trough and Louisiana.

完美——謝謝你，湯姆，祝大家早安。正如湯姆指出的那樣，我們第三季的表現非常好。我們報告的每日平均產量為 [42.600] BOE，比我們報告的第二季產量增加了 18%。這是由於二疊紀新井的產量以及謝爾比海槽和路易斯安那州海恩斯維爾的產量好於預期。

Lease bonus and other income for the quarter was $2.2 million for the third quarter and $8.7 million for the first 3 quarters of the year. While we have emphasized development programs over lease bonus, we remain encouraged by continued leasing activity in the Haynesville/Bossier despite the lower price environment this year compared to 2022.

第三季的租賃獎金和其他收入為 220 萬美元，今年前 3 季為 870 萬美元。儘管我們強調開發計畫勝過租賃紅利，但儘管今年的價格環境較 2022 年較低，但海恩斯維爾/博西爾的持續租賃活動仍然令我們感到鼓舞。

And speaking of pricing, we saw a recovery in oil prices in the third quarter with realized prices of approximately $78 per barrel and $2.90 per Mcf. That represents an increase of 8% and 1% in oil and gas prices compared to the second quarter, respectively. For comparison, during the third quarter of 2022, average price of oil was over $90 per barrel and over $8 per Mcf.

說到定價，我們看到第三季油價回升，實際價格約為每桶 78 美元和每立方英尺 2.90 美元。這意味著石油和天然氣價格與第二季相比分別上漲了 8% 和 1%。相比之下，2022 年第三季石油平均價格超過每桶 90 美元，每立方英尺超過 8 美元。

The current quarter represents a 17% decrease in crude prices and 65% decrease in natural gas prices from this period last year and continues to highlight why we hedge our near-term production volumes. We have a solid hedge book that brought in approximately $24 million of realized cash settlements for the quarter with approximately 55% of our production hedged for the remainder of 2023, with natural gas hedged at a little over $5 per Mcf.

與去年同期相比，本季原油價格下降了 17%，天然氣價格下降了 65%，這繼續凸顯了我們對沖近期產量的原因。我們擁有可靠的對沖帳目，本季實現了約 2,400 萬美元的已實現現金結算，我們約 55% 的產量在 2023 年剩餘時間內進行了對沖，其中天然氣的對沖價格為每 Mcf 5 美元多一點。

In 2024, we have continued to add to our hedge portfolio with a target of approximately 70% of our estimated production by the end of the year. This results in our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter of $130 million, which is up from -- up 19% from the second quarter and rivals our high watermark that was set in the fourth quarter of 2022.

2024 年，我們持續增加對沖投資組合，目標是到年底達到預計產量的 70% 左右。這導致我們本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.3 億美元，比第二季成長 19%，與 2022 年第四季設定的高水位相當。

Yesterday, we announced our updated guidance that reflects the strong quarter and positive trends that we are seeing. As Tom mentioned, the production guidance that we expect to come in at the upper end of our guidance range for 2023, while expecting lease operating expenses and production costs remain in line with our expectations. Additionally, we expect G&A, cash and noncash to be in the lower end of our guidance range.

昨天，我們宣布了更新的指導意見，反映了我們所看到的強勁季度和積極趨勢。正如 Tom 所提到的，我們預計 2023 年的生產指導將處於指導範圍的上限，同時預計租賃營運費用和生產成本仍符合我們的預期。此外，我們預計一般管理費用、現金和非現金將處於我們指導範圍的下限。

We previously announced the distribution of $0.475 per unit or $1.90 per unit on an annualized basis. Distributable cash flow for the quarter was $124.4 million, and this results in a distribution coverage for the third quarter of 1.25x.

我們先前宣布每單位分配 0.475 美元，以年化計算每單位分配 1.90 美元。本季可分配現金流為 1.244 億美元，這導致第三季的分配覆蓋率為 1.25 倍。

This is now the fourth consecutive quarter where we have ended the quarter with no borrowings on our revolver. And as of last week, we had over $90 million of cash prior to payment of the distribution next month. Effective yesterday, we increased our borrowing base from $550 million to $580 million due to an increase in commodity prices, but we have elected to hold commitments flat at $375 million.

現在，這是我們連續第四個季度結束時沒有左輪手槍借款。截至上週，在下個月支付分配之前，我們擁有超過 9000 萬美元的現金。由於大宗商品價格上漲，我們從昨天起將借款基礎從 5.5 億美元增加到 5.8 億美元，但我們選擇將承諾額維持在 3.75 億美元不變。

As Tom mentioned, our Board approved a $150 million unit repurchase program, while we will continue to prioritize returning cash to our investors. This allows us to opportunistically repurchase our common units. With the low gas price environment today and LNG export capacity expected to increase into 2025, we are bullish on our long-term gas exposure and do not think the current unit valuation at approximately 10.5% yield fully reflects that view.

正如 Tom 所提到的，我們的董事會批准了 1.5 億美元的單位回購計劃，同時我們將繼續優先向投資者返還現金。這使我們能夠趁機回購我們的普通單位。鑑於目前天然氣價格較低的環境以及預計到 2025 年液化天然氣出口能力將增加，我們看好我們的長期天然氣業務，但認為目前約 10.5% 收益率的單位估值並不能充分反映這一觀點。

Additionally, the first redemption window for our preferred units opened at the end of next month. This unit repurchase program gives us the flexibility to potentially repurchase common units, which trades at a discount to that contractual redemption price of 105% of par or just over $21 per preferred unit.

此外，我們的首選單位的第一個兌換窗口將於下月底開放。該單位回購計畫使我們能夠靈活地回購普通單位，普通單位的交易價格低於面額 105% 的合約贖回價格，即每個優先單位略高於 21 美元。

Repurchasing common units allows us to allows us the opportunity to reduce any potential dilution should those units convert into common in the future as well as offset any increased interest rate that goes into effect at the end of next month.

回購普通單位使我們有機會減少這些單位將來轉換為普通單位時的任何潛在稀釋，並抵消下月底生效的任何增加的利率。

Just as a reminder, that rate reset from 7% to the 10-year plus 550 basis points or approximately 10.4% based on current rates.

提醒一下，該利率從 7% 重置為 10 年期加 550 個基點，即基於當前利率的約 10.4%。

I'll echo Tom's comments as it is a great quarter and with that, we will open the call for comments.

我會回應湯姆的評論，因為這是一個很棒的季度，因此，我們將開始徵求意見。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Tim Rezvan with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們將回答 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Tim Rezvan 提出的第一個問題。

I guess I'll start with the repurchases. I'm just trying to understand kind of the rationale behind that. You talked about a 10b5-1. And then you also talked about offsetting dilution. So should we assume you will be active this quarter is the 10b5-1 in place? Or do you -- is that something you may put in place? Or I'm just trying to understand kind of the rationale behind the repurchase decision now?

我想我會從回購開始。我只是想了解背後的基本原理。你談到了 10b5-1。然後您還談到了抵消稀釋。那麼，如果 10b5-1 到位，我們是否應該假設您本季會很活躍？或者你——你可以採取這樣的措施嗎？或者我現在只是想了解回購決定背後的基本原則？

Yes. Nothing is in place right now. This is just gives us the flexibility and the opportunity to repurchase units going forward. One of the things we really were looking at is the overall principal value on the preferred units being par at a little over $20 and 105% today puts it at $21.41 per unit. And since those are convertible one-to-one in the common and with the yield going to, call it, 10.5% on our common units and 10% on the preferred just gives us a little bit of that discount to the common units, which we like relative to the preferred.

是的。現在什麼都沒有到位。這只是為我們提供了靈活性和未來回購單位的機會。我們真正關注的事情之一是優先單位的整體本金價值略高於 20 美元，而今天的 105% 則為每單位 21.41 美元。由於這些普通單位可以一對一兌換，並且收益率為，我們的普通單位為 10.5%，優先單位為 10%，這只是給我們帶來了普通單位的一點折扣，這我們喜歡相對於首選。

Okay. Okay. And I guess if you do have another month to decide what you're going to do with the preferred. You obviously have a little bit of a cash balance building. Will that be something that you will disclose in the marketplace if you do decide to redeem some or all of them?

好的。好的。我想如果你還有一個月的時間來決定你要如何處理首選。顯然你有一點現金餘額。如果您決定贖回部分或全部，您會在市場上揭露嗎？

Yes. That is correct. Yes. And we have $90 million today on the balance sheet. Really, that's going to be paid out as far as the distribution in the middle of next month. But as we go forward, thinking about the potential redemption of the common -- on the preferred or redeeming any common units, that will most likely just be used out of any cash that we build through coverage or we have the line of credit that's currently unused with $375 million of cash commitments today.

是的。那是對的。是的。今天我們的資產負債表上有 9000 萬美元。確實，這筆錢將在下個月中旬分配時支付。但隨著我們前進，考慮普通股的潛在贖回 - 在優先股或贖回任何普通股上，這很可能只是從我們透過承保建立的任何現金中使用，或者我們目前擁有的信用額度今天有3.75 億美元的現金承諾尚未使用。

Okay. I appreciate that. And if I could just take one last one in. Obviously, a very strong production number. The modest revision to guidance saying it will be at the upper end in first some sort of decline in fourth quarter production. Can you talk about kind of what you're seeing and why we shouldn't think that you'll be above that 39,000 a day for the year. Just trying to think about the kind of the near-term cadence of production.

好的。我很感激。如果我能把最後一張放進去的話。顯然，這是一個非常強大的生產數字。對指導意見的適度修正表明，在第四季度產量首次出現某種程度的下降時，指導意見將處於上限。您能談談您所看到的情況以及為什麼我們認為您今年每天的訪問量不會超過 39,000 人次。只是想考慮一下近期的生產節奏。

Yes, of course, Tim, and thanks for the question. Yes, when we model our forecast and look forward, we typically just model what we have very clean visibility and line of sight into. So that's going to be based off of any feedback we received from operators from permits and drilling activity that we see on our acreage. And so whenever we look into our results for the third quarter, that was all from new wells that we saw drill at the beginning of the year.

是的，當然，提姆，謝謝你的提問。是的，當我們對預測和展望進行建模時，我們通常只是對我們擁有非常清晰的可見性和視線的內容進行建模。因此，這將基於我們從運營商收到的來自許可證和我們在我們的面積上看到的鑽探活動的任何反饋。因此，每當我們查看第三季的業績時，這都是來自我們年初鑽探的新井。

With the lower rig count in the Haynesville, we see some challenges there going forward and expect overall production, although it was up for the quarter to still remain fairly flat going into next year. But there's always things that occur on a large diversified position such as ours that we don't necessarily have that clean visibility into.

由於海恩斯維爾的鑽機數量較少，我們看到未來會遇到一些挑戰，並預計總體產量，儘管本季度的產量在明年仍將保持相當穩定。但在像我們這樣的多元化部位中總是會發生一些我們不一定有清晰可見性的事情。

And so because we model what we see and have that visibility into, there's that inherent conservatism built into our views. Right now with where we see the program going and where we see with the drill pace and everything, there is that decrease from current volumes into the fourth quarter. But we're still encouraged and optimistic as to what volumes can go into next year and beyond.

因此，因為我們對所看到的事物進行建模並具有可見性，所以我們的觀點中內建了固有的保守主義。現在，我們看到該計劃的進展以及我們看到的鑽探速度和一切，從目前的數量到第四季度都有所減少。但我們仍然對明年及以後的銷售感到鼓舞和樂觀。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go next to Derrick Whitfield with Stifel.

（操作員指示）我們將與 Stifel 一起前往 Derrick Whitfield 旁邊。

Following up on Tim's question. Given the strength of your oil production in the quarter, could you help frame how much of that increase was for prior quarter activity versus underlying growth?

跟進蒂姆的問題。考慮到本季石油產量的強勁程度，您能否協助確定上一季的活動與基本成長相比，成長有多少？

Yes. So based off of the production that we saw in the third quarter, all of that was really -- or at least the vast majority of that was from wells that were drilled in 2023. The actual breakdown between what was in the current quarter versus production that we received from prior periods going to be a smaller portion or a smaller piece of that. But like I said, the majority of the increase in oil volumes in this quarter was all really drilled in 2023.

是的。因此，根據我們在第三季度看到的產量，所有這些都是真實的——或者至少其中絕大多數來自 2023 年鑽探的油井。當前季度產量與產量之間的實際細分我們從前期收到的資金將是其中的一小部分或一小部分。但正如我所說，本季增加的石油量大部分都是在 2023 年真正開採的。

And with regard to the 28 Angelina County Asian wells that are in various stages of development, could you help frame the split on where they lie in development and your expectations on when the wells will be turned in line.

對於處於不同開發階段的安吉麗娜縣亞洲 28 口井，您能否幫助我們劃分它們的開發位置以及您對這些井何時投入使用的預期。

Yes. So we have, through that agreement, certain criteria that requires them to drill and complete those wells. Whenever we look at what the wells are currently being in the drilling phase, that may include wells that are on the same pad. That's going to be on average, call it, 10 months from initial drill to turn in line going forward. And so we would expect to see those wells coming online, most likely in the middle of next year.

是的。因此，透過該協議，我們制定了某些標準，要求他們鑽探和完井這些井。每當我們查看目前處於鑽井階段的井時，可能包括位於同一平台上的井。從最初的鑽探到接下來的排隊，平均需要 10 個月。因此，我們預計這些油井將上線，最有可能在明年年中。

I'd just add something to that statement. Aethon is really doing a great job out there in the Shelby Trough. And they have a growing program out there and some of the metrics around timing that we built into our contract some 2 or 3 years ago are morphing as multi-pad development wells become more common, and the program is likely to expand. And -- so we may see a little bit more lumpiness in turning to sales because they're doing more wells at once, and it takes longer to get a full set of them up and ready to turn on. But we see that as positive, and we really look to work closely with Aethon on all of that.

我只想在該聲明中添加一些內容。 Aethon 在謝爾比槽確實做得非常出色。他們有一個不斷發展的計劃，隨著多井開發井變得更加普遍，我們在大約兩三年前在合約中製定的一些有關時間安排的指標正在發生變化，而且該計劃很可能會擴大。而且 - 因此，我們可能會看到銷售方面出現更多的障礙，因為他們同時進行了更多的油井，並且需要更長的時間才能獲得全套油井並準備啟動。但我們認為這是積極的，我們真的希望與 Aethon 在所有這些方面密切合作。

And perhaps staying with you for one last follow-up, if I could. I know your focus in recent years has been on organic conversion opportunities. Having said that, how would you characterize the current state of the M&A market and your desire to participate in that.

如果可以的話，也許會和你一起進行最後一次後續行動。我知道您近年來的重點一直是有機轉換機會。話雖如此，您如何描述併購市場的現狀以及您參與其中的願望？

Well, I'll answer that this way. The overall M&A market is pretty frothy in terms of valuations, I would say. But we think there continue to be more opportunities than we would have said we saw a year or 2 ago, but we are trying to look in places where maybe other people aren't looking.

嗯，我就這樣回答吧。我想說，就估值而言，整個併購市場相當泡沫化。但我們認為，仍然有比我們一兩年前所說的更多的機會，但我們正在努力尋找其他人可能沒有尋找的地方。

At this time, I will turn the conference back over to our presenters for any additional or closing comments

此時，我會將會議轉回給我們的主持人，以徵求任何補充或結束意見

Well, thank you all for joining us today. We're pretty optimistic with the pace and activity levels that we're seeing and our ability to continue to grow our platform, and we look forward to talking to you again next quarter.

好的，謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們對所看到的速度和活動水平以及繼續發展平台的能力非常樂觀，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's program. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝。女士們先生們，今天的節目到此結束。此時您可以斷開連線。