Banco Santander Chile (BSAC) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Banco Santander Chile's first quarter 2024 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this call is being recorded. Following the presentation, there will be a question and answer session. I will now hand over to Emiliano to begin the presentation.

    女士們、先生們,大家好,歡迎參加智利桑坦德銀行 2024 年第一季業績電話會議。(操作員說明)請注意,此通話正在錄音。演講結束後,將進行問答環節。現在我將請埃米利亞諾開始演講。

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Banco Santander Chile's first quarter 2024 results webcast and conference call. This is Emiliano Muratore, CFO, and I'm joined today by Cristian Vicuna, Chief of Strategic Planning and Investor Relations and come and Carmen Gloria Silva, our economist.

    大家早安。歡迎收看智利桑坦德銀行 2024 年第一季業績網路廣播與電話會議。我是財務長 Emiliano Muratore,今天加入我的還有策略規劃和投資者關係主管 Cristian Vicuna,以及我們的經濟學家 Carmen Gloria Silva。

  • The agenda for today is first Carmen Gloria will discuss the macro scenario, then because then Cristian Vicuna will review the strategy and results of the first quarter and guidance. And finally, we'll have a Q&A session, where we will also comment on the recent material fact that was published this morning.

    今天的議程首先是卡門·格洛麗亞(Carmen Gloria)將討論宏觀情景,然後克里斯蒂安·維庫納(Cristian Vicuna)將審查第一季度的戰略和結果以及指導。最後,我們將舉行問答環節,我們也將對今天早上發布的最新重要事實發表評論。

  • First, I want to express my gratitude for your presence at this quarterly meeting. Let's get down to business where I will discuss our performance during the first quarter and recent results. The macro conditions have continued its expected trend and the first instalment of the FCIC, approximately 54% of the position was paid on April the 1.

    首先,我對各位出席本次季度會議表示感謝。讓我們言歸正傳,我將討論我們第一季的業績和最近的業績。宏觀狀況延續了預期趨勢,FCIC 的第一期付款,約 54% 的頭寸已於 4 月 1 日支付。

  • All this helped our margins and net income recovered in April, where we showed a back-to-normal net income of CLP71,000 with an ROE of over 20% on the month. We expect Central Bank of Chile to continue its rate reduction strategy, although at a slower pace for the latter part of the year. This positive impact on funding cost was down into the specific of our quarterly results in a moment.

    所有這些都幫助我們的利潤率和淨利潤在 4 月恢復,當月我們的淨利潤恢復到正常水平,達到 71,000 智利比索,淨資產收益率超過 20%。我們預期智利央行將繼續實施降息策略,但下半年降息步伐將放緩。這種對融資成本的正面影響很快就反映在我們的季度業績中。

  • Now I hand over to Carmen Gloria for our macro overview.

    現在我請卡門·格洛麗亞(Carmen Gloria)進行宏觀概述。

  • Carmen Gloria Silva - Economist

    Carmen Gloria Silva - Economist

  • Thank you Emiliano. Last year, the economy had a significant adjustment reflecting the balances accumulated from previous periods. By the end of 2023, we saw a modest rebound with GDP growing 0.2% for the year, surpassing previous estimates. However, domestic demand was weaker than anticipated, suffering a decline of over 4%, largely (technical difficulty) months of 2024 pushed by more external demand, better supply factors like the greater added value of power generation and a new rise in consumption.

    謝謝埃米利亞諾。去年,經濟發生了重大調整,反映了前期累積的餘額。到 2023 年底,我們看到 GDP 溫和反彈,全年 GDP 成長 0.2%,超過先前的預期。然而,國內需求弱於預期,2024年主要(技術難度)幾個月內需求下降超過4%,主要是受到外部需求增加、發電附加價值增加等供給因素改善以及消費新增長的推動。

  • The pace of growth will likely slow down, but the initial increase means a GDP growth of around 2.8% in 2024 and above 2% in 2025, closing the gap with its potential level. This economic trend will be supported by a steady improvement in employment and more favourable financial conditions as monetary policy returns to normal on inflation (technical difficulty) '23, finishing the year with a US variation of 4.8% compared to more than 13% in 2022 due to lower domestic demand, tighter monetary policies and stable international prices.

    成長速度可能會放緩,但初步成長意味著2024年GDP成長約為2.8%,2025年GDP成長將超過2%,縮小與潛在水準的差距。隨著貨幣政策在通貨膨脹(技術難度)'23 上恢復正常,就業穩步改善和更有利的金融狀況將支持這一經濟趨勢,年底美國的變化為 4.8%,而 2022 年將超過 13%由於國內需求下降、貨幣政策收緊以及國際價格穩定。

  • Although recent inflation news price shocks and currency levels may put some pressure on local prices in the next month. We expect them to ease by the end of the year with a UF variation of 3.7%. We anticipate reaching the 3% level target by the second quarter of 2025.

    儘管最近的通膨消息價格衝擊和貨幣水平可能會給下個月的當地價格帶來一些壓力。我們預計到今年年底,它們將有所緩解,UF 變化為 3.7%。我們預計在 2025 年第二季達到 3% 的目標。

  • Regarding the exchange rate, we have seen a relevant peso appreciation from levels in February 2024 to close CLP1,000 per dollar to current level above CLP920 per dollar. Following the recovery of the copper prices, we estimate that this trend will continue during the year, allowing for lower inflationary pressure, considering the growth outlook and the inflation path, we expect the Central Bank to keep lowering the rates ending the year around 4.75% with a 50 basis points cut in the next meeting and between '25 and 50 basis points for later meetings in the year.

    關於匯率,我們看到比索從 2024 年 2 月每美元 1,000 比索的水平升值到每美元 920 比索以上的當前水準。隨著銅價的回升,我們預計這一趨勢年內將持續,考慮到通膨壓力較低,考慮到增長前景和通膨路徑,我們預計央行年底將繼續降息4.75%左右在下一次會議中降息50 個基點,在今年稍後的會議中降息25 至50 個基點。

  • The rest of Latin America and the US show comparable patterns. In general economic activities and inflation are returning to the Central Bank rolls. With this, monetary policy actions are likely to be more stimulative this year. This decline in uncertainty in Chile and the region creates a more favourable scenario for this year.

    拉丁美洲其他地區和美國也表現出類似的模式。總體而言,經濟活動和通膨正在回歸央行的控制範圍。因此,今年的貨幣政策行動可能會更加刺激。智利和該地區不確定性的下降為今年創造了更有利的前景。

  • Regarding the relevant regulatory framework the government is carrying out a fiscal plan, seeking to modernize the current tax systems. The main sources of financing are measures against exploration for which a tax compliance bill is being discussed in Congress, which seeks to collect 1.5% of GDP.

    關於相關監管框架,政府正在實施一項財政計劃,尋求實現現行稅收制度的現代化。主要資金來源是針對勘探的措施,國會正在討論稅收合規法案,該法案旨在徵收 GDP 的 1.5%。

  • It also includes pro-growth measures such as improvements in permitting processes, are ready from Congress, rate, and spending efficiency another tax reform is related to increasing taxpayer tax burden. While the Chamber of Deputies approved the idea of reforming the pension fund system considering a Social Security scheme among other measures.

    它還包括促進成長的措施,例如國會準備的許可程序的改進、稅率和支出效率,另一項稅收改革與增加納稅人的稅收負擔有關。眾議院批准了改革退休基金制度的想法,考慮社會安全計畫等措施。

  • However, the proposal did not obtain sufficient support for the additional 6% contribution and its distribution between individual capitalization accounts and Social Security reform has been debated. The reform is now being discussed in the Senate and it will face intense negotiation process to be approved.

    然而,該提案並未獲得對額外6%繳費的足夠支持,其在個人資本化帳戶和社會安全改革之間的分配也存在爭議。目前,這項改革正在參議院進行討論,將面臨激烈的談判過程才能獲得批准。

  • The banking industry is facing the process of implementing that open finance system, which will generate more competition and financial innovation. To consolidate the debt register bill is in the final discussion in Congress. Effects establishes a registered of information and rebate obligations with the aim of improving people's credit information and, at the end, provide better financial products and service.

    銀行業正面臨實施開放金融體系的過程,這將產生更多的競爭和金融創新。合併債務登記法案正在國會進行最後討論。Effects建立資訊登記和回扣義務,旨在改善人們的信用訊息,並最終提供更好的金融產品和服務。

  • Finally, the fraud law approved in 2020, establish that banks can tackle this legal action if they collect information that group's fraud or serious medications by part of the user of payment methods. Since its implementation, unknown operations have increased significantly and a relevant portion of them would be associated to self-fraud schemes, generating relevant losses for the industry. In this sense, the recent amendments to this law will help mitigate this negative consequence.

    最後,2020 年批准的反欺詐法規定,如果銀行收集部分支付方式用戶的欺詐行為或嚴重用藥信息,銀行可以處理這一法律訴訟。自實施以來,不明經營行為大幅增加,其中相當一部分可能與自我詐欺行為有關,對產業帶來相關損失。從這個意義上說,最近對該法的修改將有助於減輕這種負面後果。

  • Cristian Vicuna - Chief of Strategic Planning, IR Contact Officer

    Cristian Vicuna - Chief of Strategic Planning, IR Contact Officer

  • Thank you, Carmen Gloria. This is Christian Vicuna speaking. Good morning, everyone. Now I will pass it to reviews for the year end results. Turning our attention to Slide 8, let me begin by reminding you of our commitment to our Chile First strategy. We aspire to lead Chilean banking industry in terms of contribution to its various stakeholders. This strategy we have named Chile First with four pillars.

    謝謝你,卡門·格洛麗亞。我是克里斯蒂安·維庫納(Christian Vicuna)。大家早安。現在我將把它傳遞給年終結果的審查。將我們的注意力轉向幻燈片 8,首先讓我提醒您我們對「智利優先」策略的承諾。我們渴望在為各利益相關者做出貢獻方面引領智利銀行業。我們將這一戰略命名為“智利優先”,有四個支柱。

  • The first two pillars focus on what do we want to become and the second two pillars on how we want to do it. So first and foremost, we are engaging our transformative journey towards becoming a digital bank with branches. Our transformation into a digital bank is not only about adopting the cutting-edge technology, but also about having a friendly physical presence through our innovative work effect. These spaces are more than just places to interact with retail customers. They are dynamic hubs that promote connectivity for both customers and potential customers.

    前兩個支柱關注我們想要成為什麼,後兩個支柱關注我們想要如何做到這一點。因此,首先也是最重要的是,我們正在踏上轉型之旅,成為一家擁有分行的數位銀行。我們向數位銀行的轉型不僅在於採用尖端技術,還在於透過創新的工作效果擁有友善的實體存在。這些空間不僅僅是與零售客戶互動的地方。它們是動態的樞紐,促進客戶和潛在客戶的連結。

  • With advanced technology and our commitment to excellent service, our work affair are designed to redefine the banking experience. The medium term objective is to reach 5 million customers on 450,000 SME clients.

    憑藉先進的技術和對優質服務的承諾,我們的工作旨在重新定義銀行體驗。中期目標是覆蓋 45 萬家中小企業客戶的 500 萬客戶。

  • Our second pillar is cantered on providing specialized value-added services tailored to our Sun business segments. Our commitment is to deliver premium transactional trades, foreign exchange, sustainable finance and advisory products and services, ensuring our clients receive a top-notch experience.

    我們的第二個支柱是為我們的 Sun 業務部門提供量身定制的專業增值服務。我們的承諾是提供優質的交易交易、外匯、永續金融以及諮詢產品和服務,確保我們的客戶獲得一流的體驗。

  • Examples of this, include our corporate investment bank, our specialized edition model for commercial banking, our Santander Consumer business that offer car financing and Getnet, our acquiring business.

    這方面的例子包括我們的企業投資銀行、商業銀行專業版模型、提供汽車融資的桑坦德消費者業務以及我們的收單業務 Getnet。

  • In our third pillar, we are committed to fostering innovation and coupling growth by challenging status quo on creating new business opportunities. A good example of this is the disruption we incurred in Chile with the four-party model when we introduced our acquiring business Getnet to the market.

    在我們的第三個支柱中,我們致力於透過挑戰現狀創造新的商機來促進創新和耦合成長。一個很好的例子是,當我們向市場推出收單業務 Getnet 時,我們在智利的四方模式所遭受的破壞。

  • So we aim to lead the change in redefining the banking landscape. We actively seek out new business opportunities, pioneering the sustainable transformation of our customers. By challenging conventions, we aim to drive growth and cultivate success.

    因此,我們的目標是引領變革,重新定義銀行業格局。我們積極尋找新的商機,引領客戶的永續轉型。透過挑戰慣例,我們的目標是推動成長並取得成功。

  • Lastly, we place great importance on the role of our organization. To realize our objectives, we need the best talent. We are dedicated to building an agile, collaborative, high-performance culture. We recognize that diversity is our strength on individuals will flourish based on married. We are constructing a thriving community where talents are nurtured on innovative ideas are highly valued.

    最後,我們非常重視我們組織的角色。為了實現我們的目標,我們需要最優秀的人才。我們致力於建立敏捷、協作、高績效的文化。我們認識到多樣性是我們的優勢,個人將在婚姻的基礎上蓬勃發展。我們正在建立一個蓬勃發展的社區,在這裡培養人才,並高度重視創新理念。

  • The outstanding success of digital products has been firmly established during 2023 and '24, with the continued growth of our digital client base. Key initiatives such as Santander Life on more recently, Mas Lucas, have been instrumental in achieving this. The Mas Lucas account was launched in March 2023 as the first 100% digital site and savings account for the mass market.

    隨著我們數位客戶群的持續成長,數位產品在 2023 年和 24 年取得了巨大成功。桑坦德人壽 (Santander Life) 最近推出的馬斯盧卡斯 (Mas Lucas) 等關鍵舉措在實現這一目標方面發揮了重要作用。Mas Lucas 帳戶於 2023 年 3 月推出,是第一個針對大眾市場的 100% 數位網站和儲蓄帳戶。

  • It now have over 163,000 clients exceeding our expectations. It currently accounts for over 30% of our new accounts opening per month. Notably, the onboarding process for Mas Lucas is entirely digital, featuring facial recognition technology and no password requirements. This account comes with no fixed or variable costs and accept deposits of up to CLD5 million.

    現在它擁有超過 163,000 名客戶,超出了我們的預期。目前,它占我們每月新開戶的 30% 以上。值得注意的是,馬斯盧卡斯的入職流程完全是數位化的,採用臉部辨識技術,並且沒有密碼要求。該帳戶沒有固定或可變成本,接受高達 500 萬克朗的存款。

  • On Slide 10, we can see how the advances of our digital strategy are allowing us to continue the transformation of the branch network through Work Cafes to improve productivity. Our banks Work Cafe branches are expanding to cater to specific needs of our clients. We have launched three new types of Work Cafe formats, the successful Work Cafe Expresso, which consolidated cash operations into transaction hubs while maintaining a Work Cafe ambience.

    在投影片 10 上,我們可以看到數位化策略的進步如何使我們能夠透過工作咖啡館繼續對分公司網路進行轉型,以提高生產力。我們的銀行 Work Cafe 分行正在不斷擴張,以滿足客戶的特定需求。我們推出了三種新型的工作咖啡館模式,即成功的工作咖啡館 Expresso,它將現金業務整合到交易中心,同時保持工作咖啡館的氛圍。

  • This is a great initiative as it provides an efficient and secure banking experience for our customers. We have already opened seven out of eight of these branches impacting positively on the communities that use them with better levels of experience, extended hours, and increased security.

    這是一項偉大的舉措,因為它為我們的客戶提供了高效、安全的銀行體驗。我們已經開設了八個分支機構中的七個,對使用這些分支機構的社區產生了積極影響,這些分支機構具有更好的經驗、更長的工作時間和更高的安全性。

  • We also have our Work Cafe startup, which offers a comprehensive solution to all the needs of entrepreneurs and especially to increase banking usage, carry out pilot programs with the bank and even offering financing. This is a great way to support entrepreneurs and help them grow their business.

    我們還有我們的工作咖啡館新創公司,它為企業家的所有需求提供全面的解決方案,特別是增加銀行使用率,與銀行開展試點項目,甚至提供融資。這是支持企業家並幫助他們發展業務的好方法。

  • Finally, we have launched Work Cafe Inversions, a dedicated asset management Work Cafe designed especially for investment advice for clients and non-clients independent of their income situation.

    最後,我們推出了 Work Cafe Inversions,這是一家專門的資產管理工作咖啡館,專門為客戶和非客戶提供投資建議,無論其收入狀況如何。

  • In this branch, we offer weekly talks about different investment products or economic trends to provide advice services and in this way, support financial education. At the bottom of the slide, you can see how the use of digital channels and the transformation of our branch network has led to a new level of branch footprint, decreasing 24% in 2022 and a further 14% in 2023 to a level of 246 branches as of today.

    在這個分支機構,我們每週提供有關不同投資產品或經濟趨勢的講座,以提供建議服務,並以這種方式支持金融教育。在投影片底部,您可以看到數位管道的使用和分行網路的轉型如何將分行覆蓋範圍提升到新的水平,到 2022 年將減少 24%,到 2023 年將進一步減少 14%,達到 246 個水平從今天開始的分店。

  • Notably, 31% of our branches no longer have human sellers, with these branches providing value-added services like our traditional work effect. At the same time, our productivity has continued to improve with loan and deposit volumes per branch, increasing 20% year-over-year and 12.8% rise in the same metric per employee during the same period.

    值得注意的是,我們31%的分店不再有人工賣家,這​​些分店提供像我們傳統工作效果一樣的加值服務。同時,我們的生產力持續提高,每個分行的貸款和存款量年增 20%,同期每位員工的相同指標成長 12.8%。

  • On Slide 11, we can see how our key initiatives with SMEs are driving an impressive growth in this segment. Our digital life account for SMEs continued to drive a 36% year-over-year increase in total SME clients with more than 381,000 SME clients. When considering current accounts for business as reported by CMS, we have seen a remarkable 35% increase capturing over 36% of the market as of January 2024.

    在投影片 11 上,我們可以看到我們針對中小企業的關鍵舉措如何推動這一領域的令人印象深刻的成長。我們的中小企業數位生活帳戶持續推動中小企業客戶總數年增 36%,中小企業客戶數量超過 381,000 名。當考慮 CMS 報告的經常帳戶業務時,我們發現截至 2024 年 1 月,成長了 35%,佔據了超過 36% 的市場份額。

  • Getnet, our acquiring business continued to be an important driver for capturing new SME clients as well as expanding into larger clients requiring a host-to-host solution for more sophisticated customers requiring a more integrated payments system.

    Getnet,我們的收單業務仍然是吸引新中小企業客戶以及擴展到需要主機到主機解決方案的大型客戶的重要驅動力,而更複雜的客戶則需要更整合的支付系統。

  • Currently, Getnet operates more than 177,000 active points of sales terminals across the country. During the first quarter of 2024, Getnet generated fees totalling CLP14.3 billion and a net income of CLP3.3 billion.

    目前,Getnet在全國經營超過177,000個活躍的銷售終端點。2024 年第一季度,Getnet 產生的費用總額為 143 億智利比索,淨利潤為 33 億智利比索。

  • On slide 12, we are pleased to show that we have been very consistent in leading the marketing and customer recommendations, net promoter scores, sustaining levels of above [60 points]. Our MPA -- The NPS score is based on feedback from over than 50,000 surveys measuring over 30 NPS metrics across our various service channels on a daily basis.

    在投影片 12 上,我們很高興地表明,我們在領導行銷和客戶推薦、淨推薦值、維持上述水準方面一直非常一致[60分]。我們的 MPA——NPS 分數是基於每天超過 50,000 份調查的回饋,這些調查測量了我們各個服務管道的 30 多個 NPS 指標。

  • This invaluable feedback allows us to proactively manage and improve our client service. Our digital and remote channels continue to receive very high levels of satisfaction from our clients with our app and website achieving scores over 70 points. Our contact centre is also highly rated outperforming our peers. Now look forward about the trends in our results and balance sheet in 2024 on the first quarter.

    這些寶貴的回饋使我們能夠主動管理和改進我們的客戶服務。我們的數位和遠端管道繼續獲得客戶的高度滿意,我們的應用程式和網站得分超過 70 分。我們的聯絡中心的評價也優於同業。現在展望一下我們2024年第一季的業績和資產負債表的趨勢。

  • On Slide 14, we show our results for the first quarter of the year. We exceeded our initial guidance for ROE in the first quarter of 2024, achieving a net income attributable to shareholders of [CLP120 million] with a quarterly ROE of 11.2.

    在投影片 14 上,我們展示了今年第一季的業績。我們在 2024 年第一季超越了 ROE 的初步指導,實現了股東淨利 [1.2 億智利比索],季度 ROE 為 11.2。

  • We have already published our preliminary numbers for April, where in the month we made CLP71 billion being in the best top 10 months in our history in terms of results, reaching a monthly ROE of 20%. We are expecting this fast recovery to continue throughout the year.

    我們已經公佈了 4 月份的初步數據,當月我們實現了 710 億智利比索的業績,在我們歷史上業績最好的前 10 個月中,每月股本回報率達到 20%。我們預計這種快速復甦將持續全年。

  • Our operating segments continue to grow steadily and our book value has risen by more than 6% year-on-year, resulting in a 10% increase of the total net asset value per share plus dividend per share.

    我們的經營分部持續穩定成長,帳面價值年增超過6%,每股淨資產加每股股息總額成長10%。

  • On Slide 15, we can see the growth in our loan balance. The quarter saw a 1.1% increase in loans and a 5.5% year-on-year rise, mainly for mortgage and commercial lending. Mortgage loans grew a bit more than you ever issued in the quarter, but it will be in line with inflation going forward.

    在投影片 15 上,我們可以看到貸款餘額的成長。本季貸款成長 1.1%,年增 5.5%,主要用於抵押貸款和商業貸款。抵押貸款的成長比本季發放的貸款要多一些,但它將與未來的通貨膨脹保持一致。

  • Consumer lending was driven by credit card growth after a period of less demand due to high household liquidity. Commercial loans grew mainly from translation gains is about 23% of our commercial loans are in foreign currency, with less demand for new loans due to economic conditions.

    由於家庭流動性高,經歷了一段時間的需求減少之後,信用卡成長推動了消費貸款的成長。商業貸款的成長主要來自折算收益,我們約23%的商業貸款是外幣,由於經濟狀況,新增貸款的需求減少。

  • Our loan book should grow at a moderate rate this year following the economy. The bank's liquidity position was robust in the quarter as its total deposits kept growing a strong 2.2% on the quarter and 8.4% year-over-year. The growth was mainly driven by time deposits 4.8% in the quarter due to our writing large corporate deposits as the client found the still moderately high interest rates appealing.

    今年我們的貸款總額應該會隨著經濟的發展而適度成長。該銀行本季的流動性狀況強勁,存款總額持續強勁成長,季增 2.2%,年增 8.4%。成長主要是由本季定期存款成長 4.8% 推動的,這是由於我們因客戶認為仍處於適度高位的利率有吸引力而寫入了大量企業存款。

  • Our demand deposits remained stable at the end of year levels. Levels that normally have a seasonal effect in December, something that we consider our deposits. Our clients boosted their mutual fund investments through a bank, growing an impressive 12.7% in the quarter, achieving a high growth in AUMs.

    活期存款年末水準維持穩定。通常在 12 月會產生季節性影響的水平,我們將其視為我們的存款。我們的客戶透過銀行增加了共同基金投資,本季成長了 12.7%,實現了資產管理規模的快速成長。

  • The bond issuance went up, taking advantage of local and global fixed income markets. During the pandemic, we obtained CLP6.2 trillion in credit lines from the Central Bank of Chile. This credit line has two deadlines. One on April 1, and the other, on final one on July 1, 2024. We have already repaid the first deadline, CLP3.3 trillion, which was around 55% of the total, using the liquidity deposit program provided by the Central Bank.

    借助本地和全球固定收益市場的優勢,債券發行量增加。疫情期間,我們從智利央行獲得了6.2兆智利比索信貸額度。該信用額度有兩個截止日期。一場於 4 月 1 日舉行,另一場於 2024 年 7 月 1 日舉行。我們已經利用央行提供的流動性存款計畫償還了第一個期限的3.3兆智利比索,約佔總額的55%。

  • For the second deadline, we have almost all set up in Central bank liquidity deposits. Thus, the final payment of the FCC is well covered and will have no impact on liquidity of the bank. After the repayment of the entire FCIC, we estimate that our LCR will be around 170% showing ample liquidity.

    對於第二個期限,我們已經幾乎全部在央行設立了流動性存款。因此,FCC的最終付款得到了很好的保障,不會對銀行的流動性產生影響。在償還全部 FCIC 後,我們估計我們的 LCR 將在 170% 左右,顯示流動性充裕。

  • On slide 17, for the first quarter we achieved a 2.7% NIM confirming our recovery as planned. Our net interest income grew 31% year-over-year and dropped 4% in the quarter. The NII in the first quarter benefited from higher interest income on the lower monetary policy rate, reduce our funding costs to 5.3% in the first three months of the year. But this was partly offset by lower income from the readjustment due to the 0.8% UF variation in the quarter.

    在投影片 17 上,第一季我們實現了 2.7% 的淨利差,證實了我們的復甦按計畫進行。我們的淨利息收入年增 31%,本季下降 4%。一季度NII受益於較低的貨幣政策利率帶來的較高的利息收入,使我們的融資成本在今年前三個月下降至5.3%。但這在一定程度上被本季 0.8% UF 變化導致的調整帶來的收入下降所抵消。

  • We expect our NIM to keep recovering in next quarters and to reach at least 3.2% for 2024, with our client NIM stable and significant improvement in our non-client NIM. The first FCIC payment reduced our interest earning assets by 6% in April, resulting in a monthly NIM of 3.5% for April, up 2.9% year to date. This is a yearly improvement of 58 basis points and we expect this recovery to continue throughout the year.

    我們預計我們的淨利差將在下幾個季度繼續復甦,並在 2024 年達到至少 3.2%,我們的客戶淨利差穩定,非客戶淨利差顯著改善。4 月的第一筆 FCIC 付款使我們的生息資產減少了 6%,導致 4 月的月度淨息差為 3.5%,今年迄今成長了 2.9%。每年改善 58 個基點,我們預計這種復甦將在全年持續。

  • Regarding asset quality, we see that our NPL ratio is rising as expected in the face of the economic cycle. The March figure on consumer loans NPLs was 2.3%. On the mortgage, NPLs was 1.5%.

    從資產品質來看,面對經濟週期,我們的不良貸款率正在上升,符合預期。3 月消費貸款不良貸款率為 2.3%。抵押貸款方面,不良貸款率為 1.5%。

  • Our commercial and portfolio NPLs were 3.5% for the quarter. The recent growth in NPLs is partially explained by a slower increase of the denominator of the ratio. That is to say the loan book is not growing strongly.

    本季我們的商業和投資組合不良貸款率為 3.5%。不良貸款近期成長的部分原因是該比率分母成長放緩。也就是說,貸款帳面成長並不強勁。

  • As we can see, most of the NPL growth is this is explained by commercial loans and more recently by the mortgage loan. The growth in commercial loans NPLs is explained largely by some particular names in the agricultural industry and some real estate companies. Most of them already considering the impaired portfolio.

    正如我們所看到的,不良貸款的增長大部分是由商業貸款以及最近的抵押貸款造成的。商業貸款不良貸款的成長主要是由農業產業和一些房地產公司的一些特定名稱造成的。他們中的大多數人已經在考慮受損的投資組合。

  • In general, these commercial loans have guarantees reducing there is exposure and this is true also for mortgage loans. We anticipate NPLs to peak in the next few months and then to start improving the second half of this year.

    一般來說,這些商業貸款有擔保,可以減少風險敞口,抵押貸款也是如此。我們預計不良貸款將在未來幾個月達到峰值,然後在今年下半年開始改善。

  • Our impaired loan ratio, which covered both NPLs, customer deterioration in the commercial single names on restructured loans, is still lower than before the pandemic, although with an upward trend. The impaired ratio for March was 5.8%. This results in a coverage ratio of 142% of our NPLs.

    我們的減損貸款率(涵蓋不良貸款、重組貸款商業單名客戶惡化)儘管呈上升趨勢,但仍低於疫情前。3月減損率為5.8%。這使得我們的不良貸款覆蓋率為 142%。

  • Before the pandemic, mortgage made about a third of our total loan portfolio. Due to a strong growth of the US-denominated loans in recent years, mortgage now account for over 40% of our total loans. As mortgage are backed by a property, they need less coverage. So the change in loan mix will require less total coverage, particularly our consumer loan book coverage is some 383%.

    在疫情大流行之前,抵押貸款約占我們總貸款組合的三分之一。由於近年來美元貸款的強勁成長,目前抵押貸款占我們貸款總額的40%以上。由於抵押貸款由房產支持,因此所需的保險範圍較少。因此,貸款組合的變化將需要更少的總覆蓋率,特別是我們的消費者貸款帳簿覆蓋率約為 383%。

  • The commercial portfolio coverage is 124% and the mortgage portfolio, coverage is 71%, but this does not consider the collateralization of the portfolio with a strong loan to buy. Cost of credit for the quarter was 1.26. As shown, our cost of credit is slightly increasing, along with the changes in asset quality. For 2024, we project cost to create to stay around 1.3% following the economic cycle and labour market conditions that are expected to improve in the second semester.

    商業投資組合的覆蓋率為124%,抵押貸款投資組合的覆蓋率為71%,但這並不考慮具有強大貸款購買能力的投資組合的抵押。本季信貸成本為 1.26。如圖所示,隨著資產品質的變化,我們的信貸成本略有上升。到 2024 年,隨著經濟週期和勞動力市場狀況預計在第二季度有所改善,我們預計創造成本將保持在 1.3% 左右。

  • Next, we look at the non-NII revenue sources. Fee income increased 10.1% Q-on-Q of our clients use our digital platform more -- for more -- for our main products. The small year-on-year decline is mostly because of the effect of the interchange fee regulation that started in the last quarter of 2023 on some non-recurring fees generated by SCIB when compared to the first quarter of 2023.

    接下來,我們來看看非 NII 收入來源。我們的客戶更多地使用我們的數位平台來購買我們的主要產品,費用收入環比增長了 10.1%。年比小幅下降主要是因為與 2023 年第一季相比,2023 年最後一季開始的交換費監管對 SCIB 產生的一些非經常性費用產生了影響。

  • Income from financial transactions went down year-over-year, mainly because of lower income from the trading portfolio after a comparable high first quarter last year and a general decrease quarter-on-quarter because of negative results in this line from liability management exercises in the period.

    金融交易收入年減,主要是由於交易組合收入在去年第一季達到可比高點後有所下降,並且由於負債管理活動導致該業務線出現負面結果,環比普遍下降。

  • On slide 21, our core expenses were consistent with inflation year-on-year and dropped 2% in the quarter, mainly due to reduced personnel expenses. In the first quarter of this year, we recorded a onetime order operating expense of CLP17 billion related to restructuration provision. This is aligned with our strategy related to the branch network transformation and the progress of digital banking.

    在投影片 21 中,我們的核心費用與去年同期的通膨率一致,本季下降了 2%,主要是由於人員費用的減少。今年第一季度,我們記錄了與重組撥備相關的一次性訂單營運費用 170 億智利比索。這與我們有關分行網路轉型和數位銀行進展的策略是一致的。

  • As a result, our efficiency ratio was 47% for the quarter. Again, if we look at the April numbers, our year-to-date efficiency ratio improved to 44.6% with a 37.4% figure for this ratio on April stand-alone. During 2024, the bank is continuing to concentrate on the implementation of its $450 million investment plan for the year '23, '26 for technology projects and branch renovation.

    因此,本季我們的效率率為 47%。同樣,如果我們查看 4 月的數據,我們的年初至今效率比率已提高至 44.6%,而 4 月的效率比率為 37.4%。2024年,該銀行將繼續專注於實施23、26年4.5億美元的投資計劃,用於技術項目和分行改造。

  • We observe a positive evolution of our capital ratios. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, the bank reported a total ratio of capital of 17.6% on our core equity Tier-1 ratio of 10.4%. This figures consider the provision for the 70% annual dividend that was paid after approval by our shareholders meeting in April.

    我們觀察到資本比率的正面演變。截至2024年第一季末,該銀行的總資本比率為17.6%,核心一級資本比率為10.4%。該數字考慮了 4 月股東大會批准後支付的 70% 年度股息的準備金。

  • On January 17, 2024, the CMF apply the current regulations on additional capital requirements according to Pillar two, which contemplate two main topics, credit concentration risk and the market risk of the banking book. A Pillar two requirement was established for six months in the Chilean system. Banco Santander Chile was not asked to establish additional capital for this pillar in dislocation.

    2024年1月17日,CMF根據第二支柱應用現行的額外資本要求規定,其中考慮了兩個主要主題:信貸集中風險和銀行帳戶市場風險。智利體系製定了為期六個月的第二支柱要求。智利桑坦德銀行並沒有被要求為這混亂的支柱建立額外的資本。

  • However, the measurement of the market risk of the banking boom will continue to be discussed and capital charges may be made in the coming years. Another relevant point to consider is that in the last shareholder meeting, the Board was granted the authority to raise the dividend payout provision above their legal minimum of 30% for 2024 and onwards.

    然而,銀行業繁榮的市場風險衡量方法仍將繼續討論,未來幾年可能會提出資本要求。另一個需要考慮的相關問題是,在上次股東大會上,董事會被授權將 2024 年及以後的股利支付規定提高到法定最低 30% 以上。

  • Finally, on slide 24, we conclude with a review of our guidance. As we mentioned, April's preliminary results show how the fading out of the FCIC and the reduction in the monetary policy rates are benefiting the performance of the bank. We delivered nearly an income of CLP71 billion and a ROE of 20% for the month on good track to our historical performance already.

    最後,在投影片 24 中,我們回顧了我們的指南。正如我們所提到的,4 月的初步結果顯示 FCIC 的退出和貨幣政策利率的降低如何有利於銀行的表現。當月我們實現了近 710 億智利比索的收入和 20% 的股本回報率,已經很好地實現了我們的歷史業績。

  • Last week, the CPA number for April came out at 0.5%, higher than expectations and implying a solid month for margins in May 2. With the second quarter, looking considerably stronger than the first. So these are early signs, but we are on track to deliver our 2024 guidance.

    上週,4 月 CPA 數據為 0.5%,高於預期,意味著 5 月 2 日的利潤率表現強勁。第二季度看起來比第一季要強得多。因此,這些只是早期跡象,但我們有望實現 2024 年指引。

  • Our macro expectations for 2024 are more positive compared to last year with an estimated GDP growth of 2.8%, a US variation of around 3.7%. However, with the monetary policy rate ending 2024 around 5%. With this, we expect long growth to reach mid-single digits as the economy reactivate.

    與去年相比,我們對 2024 年的宏觀預期更為樂觀,預期 GDP 成長 2.8%,美國的差異約為 3.7%。然而,2024 年底貨幣政策利率約為 5%。因此,我們預期隨著經濟復甦,長期成長將達到中個位數。

  • As we mentioned, in April we'll already see a relevant recovery, our net interest margin. This trend should continue throughout the year and given our current macro expectation, our NIM should reach levels of at least 3.2% for the full year.

    正如我們所提到的,四月我們已經看到了淨利差的相關復甦。這一趨勢應該會持續到全年,考慮到我們目前的宏觀預期,我們全年的淨利差應該會達到至少3.2%的水準。

  • Non net interest income should be growing around mid-single digits with good customer product trends but impacted by the interchange fee regulation in cards have started at the end of 2023. Cost of risk increasing slightly to 1.3% with asset quality falling away in the economic cycle. Our core expenses should be growing less than inflation on the effective tax rate will be normalizing.

    隨著良好的客戶產品趨勢,非淨利息收入應在中個位數左右增長,但受到 2023 年底開始實施的銀行卡交換費監管的影響。隨著資產品質在經濟週期中下降,風險成本小幅上升至 1.3%。我們的核心支出成長應該低於通貨膨脹,有效稅率將會正常化。

  • With all this, our ROE for 2024 will be recovering toward normalized levels. Although our first quarter was weaker, we cannot really expect a stronger second quarter. So with profitability improving throughout the year, we should be in the range of 15% to 17% for ROE for the full year.

    有了這一切,我們 2024 年的 ROE 將恢復到正常水準。儘管我們的第一季表現較弱,但我們不能真正指望第二季會表現強勁。因此,隨著全年獲利能力的改善,我們全年的 ROE 應該在 15% 至 17% 的範圍內。

  • With all of this, our long-term ROE objective remains in the range of 17% to 19%. With this, I finish my presentation and hand over to Emiliano Muratore.

    綜上所述,我們的長期 ROE 目標仍保持在 17% 至 19% 的範圍內。至此,我完成了我的演示並移交給埃米利亞諾·穆拉托雷 (Emiliano Muratore)。

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hello, it's me again. In case you haven't seen it earlier today, we released the material fact, regarding cybersecurity event. The disclosure states as follows. The Santander Group has recently become aware of unauthorised access to a database hosted by a third-party provider. The group immediately implemented measures to manage the incident, such as blocking the compromised access to the database and strengthened from prevention to protect customers.

    你好,又是我。如果您今天早些時候還沒有看到,我們發布了有關網路安全事件的重要事實。該披露聲明如下。桑坦德集團最近發現第三方提供者託管的資料庫遭到未經授權的存取。該集團立即採取措施來管理該事件,例如阻止對資料庫的受損訪問,並加強預防以保護客戶。

  • After the mitigation carried out, the Santander Group can confirm that information has been access from payers of Santander Chile, Spain and Uruguay and from all employees and some former employees of the group.

    採取緩解措施後,桑坦德集團可以確認,智利桑坦德銀行、西班牙和烏拉圭的付款人以及該集團的所有員工和一些前員工都可以獲得資訊。

  • In the rest of the Group's market and business, there is no client data affected. It's important to note that there is no transactional information into the database or Internet banking access credentials or passwords that allows you to operate with the banks. The bank's operational systems in Chile. like those of the rest of Santander Group are not affected, and customers can continue to operate safely.

    在本集團的其他市場和業務中,沒有客戶資料受到影響。值得注意的是,資料庫中沒有交易訊息,也沒有允許您與銀行進行操作的網路銀行存取憑證或密碼。該銀行在智利的作業系統。與桑坦德集團其他公司一樣,客戶也可以繼續安全運作。

  • Thanks, everybody. Now we welcome your questions.

    謝謝大家。現在我們歡迎您提出問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We will now move to the question and answer section. (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝。我們現在進入問答部分。(操作員說明)

  • Tito Labarta, Goldman Sachs.

    蒂托·拉巴塔,高盛。

  • Tito Labarta - Analyst

    Tito Labarta - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thank you for the call and taking my question. My question is just I guess on your long-term ROE expectation, the 17% to 19%. I understand you have some issue this year, but just to go from that 15% to 17% that you're expecting in '24, so the 17% to 19%, just wondering then what the drivers will be for that? Would it be mostly further NIM expansion as you get all of the FCIC, will be completely off your books next year? I mean, do you expect rates to come down further in 2025? How dependent will it be on inflation? or do you expect any acceleration in loan growth? Just thinking of all the different moving parts and what gives you comfort that are we will expand another 2% in 2025? Thank you.

    嗨,早安。感謝您的來電並回答我的問題。我的問題只是我猜測你們的長期 ROE 預期是 17% 到 19%。我知道你今年遇到了一些問題,但只是從你預期的 24 年的 15% 到 17%,所以從 17% 到 19%,只是想知道驅動因素是什麼?當您獲得所有 FCIC 時,這是否會是 NIM 的進一步擴張,明年將完全從您的帳簿中消失?我的意思是,您預計 2025 年利率會進一步下降嗎?它對通貨膨脹的依賴程度如何?或者您預計貸款成長會加速嗎?想想所有不同的活動部件,我們將在 2025 年再擴張 2%,這讓您感到安心嗎?謝謝。

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hello, Tito. Thank you for your question. I mean, long term I mean, long term, 2025 years, it's longer than 2024, but maybe not long enough. But, yes, and to answer your questions, I mean, the two main drivers compared to 2024, first would be a cost of risk. I mean, this year cost of risk will be above the long-term sustainable level for us, considering the economic cycle on the macro situation for this year. So going forward, that should be a tailwind for ROE.

    你好,蒂托。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是,長期我的意思是,長期,2025 年,比 2024 年更長,但可能不夠長。但是,是的,為了回答你的問題,我的意思是,與 2024 年相比,兩個主要驅動因素首先是風險成本。我的意思是,考慮到今年經濟週期對宏觀情勢的影響,今年的風險成本將高於我們的長期永續水準。因此,展望未來,這應該會成為股本回報率的動力。

  • And the second, yes, this is NIM together with the FCIC fade out plus, the normalization of the monetary conditions. I mean, by that real rates conversion to low single digits, I mean from 2% or below, we are getting rate -- we are we are getting there, but not there yet as -- so those two factors, along with the cost discipline we have always had plus the non-NII coming from fees to be a sustainable revenue source are the main levers to go from the 15% to 17% this year to the 17 to 19 long term.

    第二,是的,這就是 NIM 和 FCIC 的淡出以及貨幣狀況的正常化。我的意思是,透過將實際利率轉換為低個位數,我的意思是從 2% 或以下,我們正在獲得利率 - 我們正在達到目標,但尚未達到目標 - 所以這兩個因素以及成本我們一直以來的紀律,加上來自收費的非國家資訊基礎設施成為可持續的收入來源,是從今年的15% 到17% 到17 到19 年長期的主要槓桿。

  • Tito Labarta - Analyst

    Tito Labarta - Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. Very clear. Thanks, Emiliano.

    好的。完美的。非常清楚。謝謝,埃米利亞諾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Neha Agarwala, HSBC.

    尼哈·阿加瓦拉,匯豐銀行。

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hello, Neha, we can't hear you.

    你好,Neha,我們聽不到你的聲音。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I think we lost Neha. Perhaps we can take the question from her later.

    我想我們失去了尼哈。也許我們可以稍後再問她這個問題。

  • Daniel, Credicorp.

    丹尼爾,Credicorp。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hi, good morning and thank you for the presentation. I have one question regarding NPLs. Right now. Santander has the highest NPL compared to the relevant peers, that the largest and biggest peers in Chile.

    你好,早安,謝謝你的演講。我有一個關於不良貸款的問題。現在。與相關同業相比,桑坦德銀行的不良貸款最高,是智利最大和最大的同業。

  • I would like to understand what is the situation regarding the commercial NPL? For example, if you are seeing some specific sectors that is driving this increase in NPLs or the highest NPL compared to the industry level is more related to the loan mix in that segment and what will be the aim? What will be the actions that you will take to improve NPLs going forward? Thank you so much.

    我想了解一下商業不良貸款的情況如何?例如,如果您發現某些特定行業正在推動不良貸款增加,或者與行業水平相比最高的不良貸款與該細分市場的貸款組合更相關,那麼目標是什麼?今後您將採取哪些行動來改善不良貸款?太感謝了。

  • Cristian Vicuna - Chief of Strategic Planning, IR Contact Officer

    Cristian Vicuna - Chief of Strategic Planning, IR Contact Officer

  • Hi, Daniel. This is Christian. It's true that our NPLs have increased in the last year in line in part with this situation of the economic cycle. If we review the evolution of our portfolio, we're going to see that the growth is mainly explained by two of the -- two increases, about 40% being mortgage loans and the rest in commercial loans for corporate clients. So both of them have a strong collateral.

    嗨,丹尼爾。這是基督教的。確實,去年我們的不良貸款有所增加,這在一定程度上與經濟週期的情況是一致的。如果我們回顧我們的投資組合的演變,我們會發現成長主要是由其中的兩個原因造成的——兩個成長,大約 40% 是抵押貸款,其餘的是企業客戶的商業貸款。所以他們倆都有很強的抵押品。

  • And regarding the corporate loans, we identified two portfolios with a concentration of NPLs in single names. So mostly agro and some particular cases in real estate. Both portfolios have very good collaterals that lower the need of provisions and have already been considered in the current portfolio.

    關於公司貸款,我們確定了兩個不良貸款集中在單一名稱的投資組合。主要是農業,還有房地產的一些特殊情況。這兩個投資組合都有非常好的抵押品,可以降低準備金的需求,並且已經在當前的投資組合中考慮。

  • So actually, we don't see this translating completely into cost of risk. So we see a very moderate impacting our cost of risk, but we are seeing these NPLs of some deterioration in this corporate loans that we already knew because we already have accounted to them in the [NPL] portfolio. So we expect the situation to start improving on the second half of the -- of the of the year, mostly because of their employment figures on our return to growth of the country GDP.

    所以實際上,我們並沒有看到這完全轉化為風險成本。因此,我們認為對我們的風險成本的影響非常溫和,但我們看到這些不良貸款在我們已經知道的公司貸款中出現了一些惡化,因為我們已經將它們計入[不良貸款]投資組合中。因此,我們預計情況將在今年下半年開始改善,這主要是因為我們的國家 GDP 恢復成長時就業數據。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Perfect. Thank you so much. It means that a normalized figure of cost of risk for Santander with the economic situation improving in interest rates, low and inflation control will be between 1, 1.1 or it could be a higher number? Thank you so much.

    完美的。太感謝了。這意味著隨著經濟狀況在利率、低利率和通膨控制方面的改善,桑坦德銀行的風險成本標準化數字將在 1, 1.1 之間,或者可能是更高的數字?太感謝了。

  • Cristian Vicuna - Chief of Strategic Planning, IR Contact Officer

    Cristian Vicuna - Chief of Strategic Planning, IR Contact Officer

  • We're seeing something between 1.1 to 1.2 as normalized in the long run.

    從長遠來看,我們看到 1.1 到 1.2 之間的數值已正常化。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Perfect. Thank you so much.

    完美的。太感謝了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Olavo Arthuzo, UBS.

    奧拉沃·阿圖佐,瑞銀集團。

  • Olavo Arthuzo - Analyst

    Olavo Arthuzo - Analyst

  • Yes. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. I have a very quick one related to your business units. I noticed that you guys maintained and changed the guidance of -- for the ROE expectations. But in this first quarter, we saw contraction in the retail, SCIB, and the middle throughout basically those three main business units of the bank.

    是的。大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我有一份與您的業務部門相關的快速資訊。我注意到你們維持並改變了 ROE 預期的指導。但在第一季度,我們看到零售、SCIB 和中間銀行的收縮,基本上是銀行的三個主要業務部門。

  • So I just wanted to hear from you what you expect in terms of each of them in terms of recovery throughout the next quarterly results and which one of them do you see the most like important one for this ROE rebound? Thank you very much, guys.

    因此,我只是想聽聽您對下一季業績復甦的預期,以及您認為哪一個對於股本回報率反彈最重要?非常感謝你們,夥伴們。

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hello, Olavo. This is Emiliano. Thank you for your question. And the first quarter performance in those business then -- has also a base comparison compared to what was the first quarter last year, in some cases it was very strong year by the -- if you look at the sequential of those businesses, especially the revenue part, I'm trying to leave aside regulatory effects like the interchange fee regulation on our retail business that basically got higher by the end of last year is putting some pressure on the fee part.

    你好,奧拉沃。這是埃米利亞諾。謝謝你的提問。這些業務的第一季業績與去年第一季相比也有一個基礎比較,在某些情況下,去年第一季的表現非常強勁,如果你看看這些業務的連續順序,尤其是收入部分,我試圖撇開監管影響,例如我們零售業務的交換費監管,到去年年底基本上已經提高,這給費用部分帶來了一些壓力。

  • The trends on revenues, customer acquisition and customer satisfaction in general are still strong growth across the board. I mean we are in the corporate segments, as Christian was mentioning, dealing with a higher cycle in terms of NPLs, and we are dealing with that but we are not concerned considering the level of collateral and the evolution of the macro on those segments.

    整體而言,收入、客戶獲取和客戶滿意度的趨勢仍然全面強勁成長。我的意思是,正如克里斯蒂安提到的那樣,我們處於企業部門,正在處理不良貸款方面的更高週期,我們正在處理這個問題,但我們並不擔心考慮這些部門的抵押品水平和宏觀演變。

  • So we are still confident on having like a high single-digit growth on each of the different segments because the macro conditions will be favourable first for consumer in terms of employment and GDP growth and the same for corporates with investment coming up from the low part of the bottom we had during this last two years.

    因此,我們仍然對每個不同細分市場實現高個位數成長充滿信心,因為宏觀條件將首先有利於消費者就業和 GDP 成長,也有利於投資來自低端地區的企業過去兩年我們所經歷的底部。

  • Olavo Arthuzo - Analyst

    Olavo Arthuzo - Analyst

  • Okay, that's great. Thank you very much, guys.

    好的,太好了。非常感謝你們,夥伴們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Carlos Gomez, HSBC.

    卡洛斯‧戈麥斯,匯豐銀行。

  • Neha Agarwala - Analyst

    Neha Agarwala - Analyst

  • Hi, can you hear me?

    嗨,你聽得到我說話嗎?

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, we can hear you.

    是的,我們能聽到你的聲音。

  • Neha Agarwala - Analyst

    Neha Agarwala - Analyst

  • Hi, sorry, my line got disconnected when he calls to me. So I'm asking a question on Carlos's line. Just a quick one, could you I'm sorry, I missed the initial comments, what would be the impact from the standardization of provisioning models for the consumer portfolio? And then did you see that impact in provisions and very quickly on the loan growth, could you give us some sense of how the different segments within the loan book are growing naturally see strongest growth this year? And are there any particular segment that is lacking? Thank you so much.

    嗨,抱歉,當他打電話給我時,我的線路斷開了。所以我在卡洛斯的線路上問一個問題。請簡單說一下,抱歉,我錯過了最初的評論,消費者組合的供應模型標準化會產生什麼影響?然後,您是否看到了撥備的影響以及對貸款成長的快速影響,您能否讓我們了解貸款帳簿中不同部分如何自然成長,從而在今年實現最強勁的成長?是否有任何特定的部分是缺乏的?太感謝了。

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay, so first on the standard provisioning framework for consumer book, I mean, we expect the impact to be around like CLP100,000 million for by the end of the year, I mean, as of the first quarter was about like CLP85 billion. But if we forecast or tried to project what would be the situation by the end of the year that it's when the regulation is taking place, went to be around CLP100 billion.

    好的,首先是關於消費者圖書的標準供應框架,我的意思是,我們預計到今年年底,影響將約為 1000 億智利比索,我的意思是,截至第一季約為 850 億智利比索。但如果我們預測或試圖預測今年底監管實施時的情況,則約為 1000 億智利比索。

  • We are going to use the voluntary provisions to cover that. So we have today around CLP300 billion of voluntary provisions. About a third of that will be used to cover that. So we'll still have at CLP200 billion remaining in voluntary provisions, considering that no impact on cost of risk expected, I mean neither impact on the coverage ratio, considering that basically we would have already put aside those provisions, and basically with that will be what will moved from voluntary to mandatory or statutory provisions.

    我們將使用自願條款來解決這個問題。因此,我們今天有大約 3000 億智利比索的自願撥款。其中大約三分之一將用於支付該費用。因此,考慮到對預期風險成本沒有影響,我的意思是對覆蓋率沒有影響,考慮到基本上我們已經擱置了這些準備金,並且基本上將將從自願性規定轉變為強制性或法定規定。

  • And then in terms of loan growth, I mean, we see the book in general will go in around the general guidance for the total loan book. I mean, long term investments and CapEx for corporates may take some time to rebound, maybe later in the year. So that asset, as an asset as a whole, the segment could be slightly below the average -- mortgage is growing in line with your valuation.

    然後就貸款成長而言,我的意思是,我們看到這本書總體上將圍繞總貸款書的一般指導。我的意思是,企業的長期投資和資本支出可能需要一段時間才能反彈,也許是在今年稍後。因此,該資產作為一個整體資產,該部分可能略低於平均水平——抵押貸款的增長與您的估值一致。

  • I mean, so far, we have seen growth slightly above [UF] variation going forward. We expect to be in line with inflation that may put it between 4% to 5% growth in nominal pesos, maybe slightly below the average. And consumer is the one that with economic activity getting better employment getting better and also the kind of leverage in households coming from a very low level of leverage out of the pandemic and the pension funds withdrawals and the fiscal helps people got from the government during the pandemic.

    我的意思是,到目前為止,我們看到的成長略高於[UF]的變化。我們預計名目比索的成長率可能會達到 4% 至 5%,可能略低於平均水平,與通貨膨脹保持一致。And consumer is the one that with economic activity getting better employment getting better and also the kind of leverage in households coming from a very low level of leverage out of the pandemic and the pension funds withdrawals and the fiscal helps people got from the government during the大流行.

  • Now we are -- we think that we can converge to, let's say, more normal historical levels of leverage, and that would imply the consumer book to grow, maybe above the average of the total loan book.

    現在我們認為我們可以收斂到更正常的歷史槓桿水平,這將意味著消費者帳面成長,可能高於總貸款帳面的平均水平。

  • Neha Agarwala - Analyst

    Neha Agarwala - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you so much.

    完美的。太感謝了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Pablo, Banchile

    巴勃羅·班奇萊

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hi, good morning to everybody. I have a question regarding the guidance for NIM for the year of 3.2%, I would imagine that that means that for the second half of the year, the NIM should go to levels of around 3.3% -- 3.5%. And what would be the driver for this increase in NIM, I understand, of course, the figures is going out of the books for the second half of the year but given that most of those are invested in papers with a similar rate of return. I would imagine the impact of that is not that high. So does that give us some more details on that?

    嗨,大家早安。我對今年 3.2% 的淨利差指導有疑問,我想這意味著今年下半年,淨利差應該達到 3.3% 至 3.5% 左右的水平。當然,我知道淨利差成長的驅動因素是什麼,下半年的數字將不再有記錄,但考慮到其中大部分投資於回報率相似的論文。我想這的影響不會那麼大。那麼這是否為我們提供了更多細節?

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, hello, Pablo. Thank you for your questions. Yes. I mean, we said like, I mean, for the year should be at least 3.2%. Definitely, that has an upward trend. Already, in April, we had an inflow for the month of around 3.5% and I would speak to be around that for the second quarter as a whole, considering the CPI number we've got from April.

    是的,你好,巴布羅。謝謝您的提問。是的。我的意思是,我們說,我的意思是,今年應該至少 3.2%。毫無疑問,這是一個上升趨勢。4 月份,我們當月的資金流入量約為 3.5%,考慮到我們從 4 月份獲得的消費者物價指數 (CPI) 數據,我認為整個第二季度的資金流入量約為 3.5%。

  • And so the main driver, as you said, I mean, the FCAC maturity as itself, if those are material in terms of theme, it's added medically basically because with the denominator of the ratio is falling by 10% already or already fell 5% with the first maturity on it, it will flow around another 5% in July. So basically the NIM as a ratio will go up close to 10% just because the denominator is falling.

    因此,正如您所說,主要驅動力是FCAC 成熟度本身,如果這些在主題方面很重要,那麼它基本上是在醫學上添加的,因為該比率的分母已經下降了10% 或已經下降了5 %加上第一個到期日,7月還會再流動5%左右。因此,基本上,僅僅因為分母下降,NIM 比率就會上升接近 10%。

  • And but the main driver is like the rates going down and inflation staying for the year around the %3.5, 3.7% as have a variation and that will take, as you said, the NIM for the last part of the yea, last quarter, at 3.5% or higher in order to be for the full year, at least at the 3.2%.

    但主要驅動因素是利率下降和全年通膨率保持在 3.5%、3.7% 左右,這會有所變化,正如您所說,這將需要今年最後一部分、上個季度的淨息差,全年增長率為3.5% 或更高,至少為3.2%。

  • But the main driver is normalization of the monetary policy. We are today at 6.5% as monetary policy rate, we expect to 50 basis points for the May meeting and then going forward cuts between 25 basis points to 50 basis points in the following meetings to close around [4.75], 5% for the year. And that's basically the main driver for NIM going up with inflation staying around the levels we are seeing for full second quarter, maybe slightly below as a whole for the year, but close in at [3.73%], [3.8%], you have variation for the for the year.

    但主要推動力是貨幣政策正常化。今天我們的貨幣政策利率為 6.5%,我們預計 5 月的會議將降息 50 個基點,然後在隨後的會議上降息 25 個基點至 50 個基點,收盤價約為 [4.75],全年降息 5% 。這基本上是淨利差上升的主要驅動力,通膨保持在我們整個第二季度看到的水平附近,可能略低於全年整體水平,但接近[3.73%]、[3.8%],你有為當年的變化。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Perfect. Also, if you think, if I can, given that if you have this exposure to interest rates, is that because your book has a higher gap in duration than other competitors in Chile and for you guys to be able to reach the 17% to 19% long term at least, would that require increase in the loan book of commercial and consumer loans for day -- for the need to reach around [3.8%], 4%, to get that ROE of 18%, is that correct.

    完美的。另外,如果你認為,如果我可以,考慮到你有這種利率風險,是因為你的書比智利的其他競爭對手有更高的持續時間差距,並且你們能夠達到 17%從長期來看,至少19%,這是否需要增加商業和消費貸款的貸款帳簿——需要達到[3.8%]、4% 左右,才能獲得18% 的ROE,這是正確的。

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • So yes, I mean, recently, we don't know the details of other players, but it's our sense that our sensitivity to interest rates is higher to theirs as we saw in the tightening cycle. And so we would expect to be more benefited in now in the relaxing or easing cycle.

    所以,是的,我的意思是,最近我們不知道其他參與者的細節,但我們感覺我們對利率的敏感度高於他們,正如我們在緊縮週期中看到的那樣。因此,我們預計現在在放鬆或寬鬆週期中會受益更多。

  • Regarding loan growth for the long-term ROE, yes. I mean, it will look at long-term GDP growth expectations in nominal terms for the economy, we think about around 5%. And with that, the historical multiplier it's above one for long growth. So in long term, we expect, yes, them to meet mid from high to high single-digit growth in the loan book in order to sustain the long term ROE and I have in the NIM in the high threes.

    關於長期淨資產收益率的貸款成長,是的。我的意思是,它將著眼於經濟名義上的長期 GDP 成長預期,我們認為約為 5%。這樣一來,歷史乘數就高於長期成長的乘數。因此,從長遠來看,我們預計,是的,他們的貸款帳簿將實現中高個位數成長,以維持長期淨資產收益率,而我的淨利差值則處於高位。

  • I mean, it's important to when we think about long term NIM and you tried to look backwards to what we had in the past, it's also important to factor that the today the weight of the mortgage portfolio in the total loan book, it's much higher than used to be, so the 4.5% or higher NIMs we had in the past with this competition the loan book will be definitely harder to get and to be around 4% to something more reasonable to expect as a long term expectation.

    我的意思是,當我們考慮長期淨利差時,當你試圖回顧過去的情況時,重要的是要考慮到今天抵押貸款組合在總貸款賬簿中的權重要高得多。因此我們過去在這場競爭中獲得的4.5% 或更高的淨利差(NIM) 肯定會更難獲得,並且作為長期預期,貸款賬面淨息差(NIM) 肯定會更難達到4% 左右。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Perfect. Thank you.

    完美的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ernesto, Bank of America.

    埃內斯托,美國銀行。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Thank you. Hi, good morning, Emiliano and Christian. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. Most of my questions have been answered. So I just have a couple of them. The first one will be on your effective tax rate. You were guiding, it should be normalizing to historical levels, but just wanted to double check what would be those levels?

    謝謝。嗨,早上好,埃米利亞諾和克里斯蒂安。感謝您有機會提問。我的大部分問題都得到了解答。所以我只有其中幾個。第一個是您的有效稅率。您正在指導,它應該正常化到歷史水平,但只是想仔細檢查這些水平是多少?

  • And my second question is on fintechs competition. Just wondering how do you see, has the most important fintechs in the country or who are the technology competitors that you have seen more aggressive? And also, how do you see Santander Chile prepare for competition?

    我的第二個問題是關於金融科技的競爭。只是想知道您如何看待該國最重要的金融科技公司,或者您所看到的更具侵略性的技術競爭對手是誰?另外,您如何看待智利桑坦德銀行為比賽做準備?

  • Cristian Vicuna - Chief of Strategic Planning, IR Contact Officer

    Cristian Vicuna - Chief of Strategic Planning, IR Contact Officer

  • Hi, Ernesto. It's Christian, thank you for the question. So our effective tax rate, actually saw a couple of points below 25% when inflation is around 3%. So this year, we had a couple of basis points above 3%. We should be seeing 1 percentage points or 2 percentage points below that sort of -- in the ballpark of 21, 22. So that's why we are expecting a standardization of the effective tax rate.

    嗨,埃內斯托。我是基督徒,謝謝你的提問。因此,當通貨膨脹率約為 3% 時,我們的有效稅率實際上低於 25%。所以今年,我們有幾個基點高於 3%。我們應該會看到比這個數字低 1 個百分點或 2 個百分點——大概是 21、22 個百分點。這就是為什麼我們期望有效稅率會標準化。

  • Regarding fintechs, let me start on and then Emiliano will complement. In Chile, actually, we are not seeing the presence of their large disruptive fintechs that are in place in other countries in the region, like the new banks of this world in Brazil and Mexico. So we haven't seen the rise of this type of competitors locally.

    關於金融科技,讓我開始,然後埃米利亞諾將補充。實際上,在智利,我們沒有看到該地區其他國家的大型顛覆性金融科技的存在,例如巴西和墨西哥的新銀行。所以我們在當地還沒有看到這類競爭對手的崛起。

  • Actually, there are specific competitors’ scenarios like factoring or international remittances of money. But actually, those are very specific. And what we are also seeing is some increased competition from fintechs within other traditional banks like the Credit Corp initiative of Tenpo and BCI match.

    實際上,存在特定的競爭對手場景,例如保理或國際匯款。但實際上,這些都是非常具體的。我們也看到其他傳統銀行內部金融科技公司的競爭加劇,例如 Tenpo 的 Credit Corp 計畫和 BCI match。

  • So actually, what we are seeing more is an environment where the incumbents are accelerating the transformation to address this competition and this is where we've been leading the way with our life initiative under Mas Lucas account. So we are -- we think we have been actually very, very successful in transforming ourselves to address potential new entrants.

    因此,實際上,我們看到的更多的是現有企業正在加速轉型以應對這場競爭的環境,而這正是我們在馬斯盧卡斯的領導下透過我們的生活計劃一直處於領先地位的環境。所以我們——我們認為我們在轉型以應對潛在的新進入者方面實際上非常非常成功。

  • Having said that, I'm all there to say that the most relevant fintech competition and if we can call them our fintech is Mercado. Those -- there are the guys that we are actually like seeing us are very relevant to new entrants.

    話雖如此,我想說的是,最相關的金融科技競賽,如果我們可以稱之為我們的金融科技,那就是 Mercado。我們實際上喜歡看到這些人與新進入者非常相關。

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • Just to complement on Christian, yes, I mean, I would say that Mercado Pago is the only original 11 player that has entered the market and we feel really confident about our capabilities to compete with them and with any other potential entrants. When you see our digital footprint in the region of SMEs, together with our Getnet proposition in acquiring and in payments and when do you put that in the context of the overall universal banking, we do our whole ecosystem is quite unique.

    只是為了補充 Christian,是的,我的意思是,我想說 Mercado Pago 是唯一進入市場的原始 11 玩家,我們對我們與他們以及任何其他潛在進入者競爭的能力非常有信心。當您看到我們在中小企業領域的數位足跡,以及我們在收單和支付方面的Getnet 主張時,您何時將其置於整體全能銀行業務的背景下,您會發現我們的整個生態系統非常獨特。

  • I mean, customer satisfaction is good for us. I mean, we lead the market in that sense. So we don't discard the farther entrants. I mean, may be because of the size of Chile, some of them hasn't -- haven't already entered, but they might enter in the future. But we think that we are really in a good position to compete to sustain our competitive position, our current competitive positions and to grow further even with new entrants.

    我的意思是,客戶滿意度對我們有好處。我的意思是,從這個意義上來說,我們引領著市場。所以我們不會丟棄更遠的進入者。我的意思是,可能是因為智利的面積,其中一些國家還沒有進入,但他們將來可能會進入。但我們認為,我們確實處於有利的競爭地位,可以維持我們的競爭地位、當前的競爭地位,並在新進入者的情況下進一步發展。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alonso Aramburo, BTG.

    阿隆索·阿蘭布羅,BTG。

  • Alonso Aramburo - Analyst

    Alonso Aramburo - Analyst

  • Yes, hi, good morning and thank you for the call. Yeah, two questions on my end. The first one on expenses. I was wondering if you can comment if you potentially have other provisions, restructuring provisions like you had this quarter in the rest of the year?

    是的,嗨,早上好,謝謝您的來電。是的,我有兩個問題。第一個是費用。我想知道您是否可以評論您是否可能有其他條款,例如今年剩餘時間本季的重組條款?

  • And my second question regarding your guidance on ROE of 15% to 17% for this year, you had 20% in April for you to hit roughly the mid-point of that guidance. It seems like you need around 19% ROE for the rest of the year. Just wondering if that's in line with what you're thinking. Thank you.

    我的第二個問題是關於你們今年 15% 到 17% 的 ROE 指導,你們在 4 月有 20% 的指導,可以大致達到該指導的中點。看來今年剩餘時間你需要 19% 左右的 ROE。只是想知道這是否符合您的想法。謝謝。

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. I mean, hello, Alonso. Thank you for your question. I mean, we don't expect any additional one-off provisions that we had in the first quarter for the rest of the year. And regarding ROE, yes, I mean, we still hold that the range between 15% to 17%. So far, the macro evolution that the falling rates on the inflation not falling so much as we were expecting before, made us, you have to be reasonable to be in the middle of that range. And as you actually said, we would be around 19% for the rest of the year. How higher or lower compared to that midpoint will depend basically on how rates evolve going forward.

    是的。我的意思是,你好,阿隆索。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是,我們預計今年剩餘時間不會有任何額外的一次性準備。關於 ROE,是的,我的意思是,我們仍然認為這個範圍在 15% 到 17% 之間。到目前為止,宏觀演變表明通膨率下降幅度沒有我們之前預期的那麼大,這使得我們必須保持合理的水平才能處於該範圍的中間。正如您所說,今年剩餘時間我們的成長率將保持在 19% 左右。與該中點相比有多高或多低基本上取決於未來利率如何演變。

  • We have the monetary policy, meaning by the end of May where additional cut is expected. And I think it's reasonable to be expected to be in the mid of that range. And would that have in that high double digits ROE for the remainder of the year.

    我們有貨幣政策,這意味著到五月底預計會進一步降息。我認為預期處於該範圍的中間是合理的。今年剩餘時間裡股本報酬率是否會達到兩位數的高水準?

  • Alonso Aramburo - Analyst

    Alonso Aramburo - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you.

    完美的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Okay, thank you. I'm not saying any more questions. So perhaps I can hand back to Emiliano closing remarks.

    好的,謝謝。我不會再說任何問題了。所以也許我可以請埃米利亞諾做結束語。

  • Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

    Emiliano Muratore Raccio - Chief Financial Officer

  • So thank you very much everyone for taking the time to participate in today's call. We look forward to speaking with you again soon.

    非常感謝大家抽空參加今天的電話會議。我們期待很快再次與您交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes the call for today. Thank you and have a nice day.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝您,祝您有愉快的一天。