Banco Santander Chile (BSAC) 2014 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Once again welcome to Banco Santander-Chile's third-quarter 2014 results conference call. This is Raimundo Monge, Director of Strategic Planning. I'm joined today by Robert Moreno, Manager of Investor Relations.

  • Thank you for attending today's conference call in which we will discuss our performance in the third quarter of 2014. Following the webcast presentation, we will be happy to answer any questions you might have.

  • Before we go into more detail regarding our results, we will briefly give our latest update on the economic outlook for the Chilean economy in 2014 and 2015.

  • As forecasted, the economy continued to decelerate in the third quarter mainly due to the lower than expected investment and consumption levels. 2014 we are anticipating GDP to grow around 1.9% with internal demand -- that is consumption plus investment -- expanding 1.2%. We expect the economy to rebound in 2015 with GDP growth of around 3.2% and internal demand expanding 3.4%.

  • The inflation rate measured by the variation of the UF, an inflation linked unit and the most relevant indicator for banks, should rise to 4.6% this year due to depreciation of the peso and the effects on prices of some goods as a result of the new tax law. We expect inflation to return to a more normal level of around 3% in 2015.

  • Given this outlook, the Central Bank continued to cap interest rates in the quarter to 3%. We expect the Central Bank to pause its interest rate cuts as further reduction could depreciate the peso and fuel greater inflation.

  • The expected rebound of the economy should be driven by various factors. First of all, the outlook of growth of Chile's main trading partners, especially the US, continues to strengthen. In fact, the weighted average GDP growth of Chile's main trade partners continues to be revised upwards.

  • This should be positive for the contribution of Chile's exports growth to GDP. Export growth as measured in GDP figures should expand at around 6% this year and the next.

  • Regarding investment, in 2014 we are expecting a contraction of 4% and a recovery to levels closer to 2% in 2015. This should be driven by two main factors. First of all, the investments are expected in the infrastructure and the energy sectors. Second of all, we believe that the various reforms being discussed in Congress will be resolved via broad-based comprises, resulting in a rebound in investor and consumer confidence. Finally, total consumption including government expenditure should continue to grow at around 4% both in 2014 and 2015.

  • All in, this should represent a relatively supported market environment for banks. For this reason, loan growth should continue to grow close to 9% in 2014 and around 8% in 2015.

  • Deposit growth has slowed as the high inflation and low interest rate environment has led to a greater flow of money to money market funds. But liquidity levels remain quite high.

  • The profitability of the Chilean banking system is also stabilized in view of a more normalized inflation and interest rate environment in the third Q of the year. Asset quality in the financial system has also remained relatively stable.

  • Now, we will review how the Bank continues to move forward in its strategic objectives and the main commercial results achieved in the quarter. The evolution of our quarter results reflect, as expected, the lower inflation rate. But more importantly, the Bank experienced robust business trends despite the lower growth in the economy.

  • We attribute this to our commercial strategy of focusing growth first of all in those segments with the highest risk adjusted contribution. This has been achieved with an increased use of our new customer relationship managing platform, CRM, improved quality of service, strong growth of corporate transactional services such as cash management and the reaping the full benefit of our revamped credit models.

  • The evolution of our asset quality indicators also shows that we are slightly ahead of the rest of the system in making the necessary changes to confront on better footing the current economic environment.

  • Our capital levels remain robust. All of this will allow us to continue to achieve an ultimate balance between our return on equity and our cost of capital. By maximizing this relation, we believe we will be able to expand shareholder value going forward.

  • In the third Q of 2014, total loans increased 2.2% Q on Q and 9.6% year on year. In the quarter, the Bank continued to focus on its strategy of expanding the loan book in less riskier clients and segments. Lending to individuals increased 2.7% year on year and 12% year on year.

  • Loans in the high income segment, which are mainly distributed through the Santander Select network, increased 3.9% Q on Q and 17.1% year on year. While in the Santander Banefe unit, which attends lower income segments, the loan portfolio increased 0.3% Q on Q and 3.6% year on year, continuing the loan mix shift started several quarters ago.

  • Lending to small and middle-sized enterprises, SMEs, expanded 0.7% Q on Q and 4.5% year on year. In the quarter, the Bank continued proactively decelerating loan growth in this segment. Growth has been focused in those SME clients that are also intensive in those lending activities such as cash management, which tend to be the most profitable SMEs.

  • In the third quarter, the middle-market segment loans increased 4.1% Q on Q and 9.8% year on year. Loan growth accelerated in this segment due to the increased activities among mid-sized exporters, which are benefiting from the weaker peso. This segment is also generating increasingly higher levels of business volumes in other areas such as cash management, which has helped to drive the rise in client deposits.

  • Total deposit increased 8.6% Q on Q and 8.8% year on year. The Bank continued to focus on increasing its core deposit base as reflected in the 1.1% Q on Q and 8.9% year on year rise in non-interest bearing demand deposit.

  • Simultaneously in the quarter, various institutional investors and large corporate clients increased their deposit with the Bank given the high liquidity of the economy. This was reflected in the 13.1% Q on Q and 8.7% year on year increase in time deposits in the third quarter.

  • With an important change in the Bank funding mix in the last few years, the Bank is moving ahead in complying with the Chilean regulator's proposed new liquidity requirements.

  • As of September 2014, the Bank had 3.5 million clients. The Bank achieved positive net client growth for the sixth consecutive quarter. The client base has grown 6.7% in this stretch, which started at the end of the first Q of 2013 when the Bank completed the development of the CRM and launched the Santander Select brand for higher income segments. Clients in the higher income segment increased 17% in the same period.

  • The consolidation of our strategy is sustained growth in various products in which we have gained market share this year. Despite focusing growth among the middle/high and high income segments of the population, we have gained market share in consumer lending, credit card loans and transactions and deposits since the beginning of the year. We have also increased our market share in residential mortgage loans in the same period.

  • The transformation project is also resulting in a favorable evolution of consumer loan asset quality, which is a key cornerstone of our strategy to obtain higher margins net of provisions.

  • This is due to various initiatives the Bank has been carrying out since 2011, among them the portfolio mix change focusing on loan growth in the middle to higher end of the consumer market; the improvement in risk models; the focus on growing via pre-approved loans; and lastly, the revamping of the recollection process.

  • These efforts are reflected in the sound evolution of impaired consumer loans -- that is consumer non-performing loans plus renegotiated consumer loans -- especially when compared to our competitors.

  • Since June 2012, impaired consumer loans in the Chilean banking system, excluding Santander-Chile, have increased 52% compared to a decrease of 14% in our case. As a result of this improvement in impaired consumer loans, the expected loss of our consumer loan portfolio has been reduced considerably.

  • Accordingly, in the third quarter the Bank recalibrated its consumer loan risk model, which resulted in a reduction in provisions required for the performing portion of this loan book.

  • The Bank also concluded the third quarter with strong capital ratios. Our core capital ratio reached 10.6%, one of the highest levels among our main peers, with a Basel I ratio of 13.7%.

  • The ultimate goal of our strategy is to maximize the difference between our ROE and the cost of equity. Today we have one of the best relations between core capital and ROE, cost of capital and ROE among our main local peers and one of the highest credit ratings in the banking world.

  • Now we will explain the evolution of our results, which, as mentioned, were lower on a Q on Q basis mainly as a result of the lower quarterly inflation rate. However, the Bank's solid commercial and client profitability trends observed since last year were sustained in the quarter.

  • In the third Q of 2014 net interest income decreased 14.1% Q on Q and increased 4% year on year, mainly, as mentioned, because of the lower quarterly inflation rate. The net interest margin, NIM, in 3Q 2014 reached 5% compared to 6% in the second quarter and 5.3% in the third quarter of 2013.

  • In order to improve explanation of margins, we have divided the analysis of net interest income between non-client interest income, which includes among other things the impact of inflation in our result, and client interest income, which gives a clearer picture of the Bank's recurring net interest income and margin.

  • As mentioned, the reduction of non-client net interest income was due to the lower quarterly inflation rate. The Bank has more assets than liabilities linked to inflation, and as a result, margins have a positive sensitivity to variations in inflation.

  • In the third quarter, the variation of the Unidad de Fomento, UF, an inflation indexed currency unit, was 0.6% compared to 1.8% in the second quarter of 2014 and 1% in the third quarter of 2013.

  • The gap between assets and liabilities indexed to the UF average approximately CLP4.1 trillion -- that is around $6.8 billion. This implies that for every 100 basis points change in inflation, our net interest income increases or decreases by CLP41 billion, all other factors equal. The existence of this gap is mainly due to the Bank's lending and funding activity.

  • We expect UF inflation in the fourth quarter to be approximately 1% to 1.1% favoring our non-client interest income. Concerning client net interest income, it increased 1.7% Q on Q and 6.9% year on year in the third quarter, driven mainly by loan growth.

  • Client net interest margins reached 5.5% in the third quarter compared to 5.5% in the previous quarter and 5.6% in the third quarter of 2013. Client NIMs have remained relatively stable since the third quarter of last year despite the change in loan mix to less risky segments and the negative impacts of a reduction in the maximum rate.

  • This has been made -- mainly due to the better funding mix and rising loan spreads in 2014. For the remainder of 2014 and 2015, client net interest income should increase in line with loan growth as client margins are expected to remain relatively stable.

  • Fee income is gradually beginning to rebound in line with the expansion of the Bank's client and product base. Net fee and commission income increased 0.4% Q on Q and 2.1% year on year.

  • Fee income from our business segment was up 4.4% Q on Q and 12% year on year. Notable was the 4.4% Q on Q and 11% year on year increase in fees from individuals and the 4.7% Q on Q and the 31% year on year increase in SMEs.

  • These positive figures were partially offset by the decrease in collection fees that are negatively affected this year by the refund of insurance premiums for mortgage loans that are prepaid.

  • In the third quarter of 2014, the Bank's total core revenue -- that is net interest income plus fee income -- was down 12.1% Q on Q and increased 3.7% year on year. As mentioned, this reduction was mainly due to the lower inflation rate in the quarter.

  • On the other hand, the Bank's core revenue from our business segment, a clearer metric of the Bank's recurring revenue generation, was up 2.2% Q on Q and 7.5% year on year. The Bank's core revenue from business segment has increased for five consecutive quarters, boosted by our transformation project.

  • Asset quality was stable in the quarter. The Bank's total non-performing loans ratio remained stable at 2.9% Q on Q and decreased from 3% in the third quarter of 2013.

  • Total coverage of non-performing loans in 3Q reached 104.1% compared to 102.3% in the second quarter of 2014 and 94.8% in 3Q 2013. Provisions for loan losses increased 18.2% Q on Q and 3% year on year in the third quarter.

  • In this period the Bank recognized a one-time provision expense of CLP8,578 million from the recalibration and improvement of its provisioning models for loans analyzed on a Group basis. This recalibration was performed in order to proactively increase coverage of non-performing loans in the SME segment. This explains a big part of the 28.1% Q on Q and the 11.8% year on year rise in gross provisions.

  • At the same time, charge-offs remained stable in the quarter, increasing 0.2% Q on Q and decreasing 8.7% year on year. As a result, the cost of credit -- that is provision expenses annualized divided by total loans -- reached 1.8% in the third Q of 2014.

  • The Bank's total net provision expense has decreased 4.1% in the first nine months of this year compared to the similar period of 2013 and the cost of credit reached 1.63% in the first nine months of the year compared to 1.89% in the same year -- in the same period in 2013.

  • Operating expenses, excluding impairment charges, decreased 6.4% Q on Q and increased 0.5% year on year in the second (sic -- "third") quarter. In this period, the Bank recognized a one-time impairment of intangibles of CLP36,577 million. This impairment was mainly of software. In the past period, the Bank has invested significantly in systems and software.

  • Software was usually amortized in three years, but some older ones that were not contributing to the Bank's profit and loss statement were fully charged-off in the third quarter. This will imply lower depreciation and amortization expenses of around CLP13 billion in 2015 and CLP5 billion in 2016 as well as a lower depreciation charge in the fourth Q of this year. Excluding the charge for impairment, the efficiency ratio reached 36.7% in the first nine months of 2014.

  • Personnel salaries and expenses decreased 0.4% Q on Q and increased 10.1% year on year. The year on year increase in personnel expenses was mainly due to the impact of a higher inflation rate over salary, which are indexed to inflation, and variable incentives due to the solid client activity. Headcount increased 1% Q on Q and decreased 1.1% year on year to 11,493 persons in total.

  • Administrative expenses increased 1.7% Q on Q and 7.9% year on year. This was mainly due to greater business activity that has resulted in higher system and data processing costs, and second, the effect of a higher inflation rate over costs in cost indexed to inflation like rent expenses.

  • In the quarter, the Bank opened three Santander Select branches and closed six Banefe branches as part of the ongoing process of seeking greater efficiencies in the brick and mortar distribution network. The Bank remained focused on growing through complementary channels such as Internet, phone banking and mobile banking.

  • Apart from the one-time impairment charge and provision expense just mentioned, the Bank also recognized an additional one-time unaudited non-cash income of CLP35,411 million in the line item income tax expense during September 2014.

  • Chile's new tax bill became effective in the third quarter and the Bank had to re-calculate its deferred tax assets and liabilities using the new higher statuary rates included in that bill.

  • All the above has resulted in a fairly solid 2014. Our year-to-date earnings was up 53.6% to CLP412 billion with an ROE of 22.8% and an efficiency ratio of 36.7%. In the quarter, net income was up 8.9% year on year and dropped 31% Q on Q.

  • As we have explained through this presentation, core business strengths remain robust and for these reasons we have no significant change to our outlook for the fourth Q or the year 2015.

  • As we have mentioned in previous earnings calls, the Bank has been targeting and is currently reaching an ROE between 19% and 20% with a normalized inflation of 3%. The Bank's average ROE in the past eight quarters assuming a 3% annual inflation rate is 19.3%. In 3Q 2014, the Bank's ROE excluding one-timers and under a normal inflation scenario would have been also within the 19%-20% range.

  • To conclude, 2014 has been a solid year in many aspects. The most important has been the growing client and commercial trends that reflect the success of the transformation initiatives started three years ago.

  • Loan growth has been solid in the segments we are targeting and client margins have remained stable despite a [safer] lower mix. The funding mix continued to improve and we have among the lowest cost of funds in the Chilean financial industry given our strong core deposit market share. The Bank has also robust core capital ratios and liquidity levels.

  • The larger client base is helping us to resume growth of our fee base and we are also gaining market share in many products and services such as credit cards, loans and transactions, consumer installment loans, mortgage loans, deposit and checking accounts.

  • Asset quality is stable and the Bank proactively tightened coverage ratio of SME non-performing loans in order to avoid surprises if the economy does not rebound as quickly as expected in 2015.

  • The Bank's productivity and efficiency levels are also improving. We are increasing our loan book by 8%-9% a year with no increase in branches or headcount. We are accelerating the amortization of obsolete software in the quarter and these will produce cost savings in future quarters.

  • In summary, high quality recurring results in the year and quarter, in which we are showing solid core business trends while preparing the Bank for another sound year in 2015.

  • At this time, we will gladly answer any questions you might have.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

  • Jose Barria, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

  • Jose Barria - Analyst

  • I have two questions. The first one is with regards to provisions in the quarter. I understand what you explained with the charge you took for the recalibration of the SME portfolio. But when I look at the provision per segment, it looks like on commercial loans you had a huge increase from about CLP39 billion in the prior quarter to CLP86 billion. And that's not really explained by this CLP8.5 billion recalibration that you did or charge you took for the recalibration.

  • And then in consumer loans, there's a big decrease. So, I'm sorry, I just don't understand exactly what's happening here and I want to get an idea of sort of what the right numbers I should be looking at in terms of recurring number of provisions should be. If you can start there and then I'll ask the second question.

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Yes. What happened is that we simultaneously recalibrated the consumer models and the SMEs models. In one case, as we pointed, we reduced the coverage and the provisions set for that specific segment and in the case of SME it was the opposite. The net -- the combined effect of the two was the CLP8.5 billion result. It was a combination of a release on the consumer side and an increase in the coverage on the SME side. And that's why the net of the two was the CLP8.5 billion that we highlighted.

  • Jose Barria - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • They were the two simultaneously.

  • Jose Barria - Analyst

  • I see. Okay, that's clear now. And then -- so going forward what I'm thinking about, what we should be expecting for provisions to average loans. It sounds like you are getting more conservative on the SME segment, on the commercial segment. But on the consumer segment things have shaped up well given some of the changes, adjustments that you've made in prior quarters.

  • What should we be thinking about in terms of provisions to average loans as we look ahead?

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Yes. Well, if you take the historical trends, we have been improving our overall cost of the credit or provisions of our loans. We think that that trend -- although the headwinds that we are seeing specifically on the SMEs. In the rest of the segment we haven't seen that so far, no relevant indicators of asset quality deterioration.

  • And that makes us believe that -- this year we have a 1.6% cost of credit ratio for three first quarters as a whole. We think that we can maintain that for the last quarter and the year 2015. Because in the consumer side where most of the provisions and charge-offs are happening, the vintages -- you mentioned that segment through vintages -- the vintages are hinting that we have room to improve even though the macro outlook will be -- or has been this year a little bit weaker than what we were expecting. So 1.6 -- so around 1.6% as an average for the next year and the remaining of this year is good advice.

  • Jose Barria - Analyst

  • Perfect. Okay, thank you. And then the second question is, if you could give us an update on the plans to implement Basel III in Chile. And I understand that the regulators are proposing a change to the banking law which is necessary to enact a -- or to have you guys report under Basel III. What's the latest and when do you think this happens and what is the potential impact on your capital ratio?

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Yes. Well, the superintendent of banks -- as we mentioned recently that this year the superintendency under ministry of finance are in the final stages of drafting a proposal. Here the biggest pending issue is the capital ratios, because the liquidity elements of Basel III have already been proposed to the different market participants by the Central Bank at the beginning of the year and we haven't seen nothing that is surprising there.

  • So that -- the pending part is capital ratios. The early commentaries that we have heard is that the system is well prepared to move to Basel III because in Chile the capital allocation for credit risk purposes is higher than the average in other geographies and therefore you could release part of that capital to redeploy it for operational risk and market risk, which are the new categories coming in the Basel III full implementation.

  • The other commentary is that apparently no single entity will be in need of -- or in desperate need of further capital there. And given the fact that it will be phased in three or four years, we think that most of the system will pass the test relatively -- in a relatively straightforward way.

  • So in terms of liquidity, for example, depending on how -- which elements or which securities are qualified at high graded [tier], you should see some changes in prices or -- but generally speaking, especially the largest banks have a strong presence in core deposit. In our case, we calculate a core deposit market share of around 21%. And by our position our market share in institutional money below 10%, which is the same except for the larger banks.

  • So we -- it's a process that will take many years and we don't see any need to rush things because the Chilean market has been facing very well in the different ups and downs of different types. So it's good news because it's an international standard. We at Santander believe we are a little bit ahead of the rest and we have some shadow calculations that make us very comfortable about the process.

  • Jose Barria - Analyst

  • Okay. And when you say comfortable, you are basically alluding that you don't think that there will be a need for capital at least in your operations?

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • No, in our case very unlikely. And given that we have the highest core capital ratio under Basel I, it's very likely that -- if it's pressing for us, it would be very much pressing for the rest. So we don't -- but we don't foresee that scenario.

  • Jose Barria - Analyst

  • I see. Okay, thank you very much, Raimundo.

  • Operator

  • Thiago Batista, ITAU.

  • Thiago Batista - Analyst

  • (technical difficulty) on services, this quarter (technical difficulty) do believe --

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • I'm not listening to you very clearly.

  • Thiago Batista - Analyst

  • Hello? Now it's better?

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Yes, now better.

  • Thiago Batista - Analyst

  • Yes, thanks and sorry for that. How much do you believe (technical difficulty).

  • Operator

  • Should we take the next question?

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Yes, I guess. I don't listen very well.

  • Operator

  • Yes, I can't hear him either.

  • Chris Delgado, JP Morgan.

  • Saul Martinez - Analyst

  • Hi. This is Saul actually from JP Morgan, Saul Martinez. Can you guys hear me?

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Yes, Saul, very clearly.

  • Saul Martinez - Analyst

  • Okay -- okay, great. Just sort of following up on the earlier question, you guys gave some metrics by business segment and the results obviously in the SME segment looked pretty dreadful this quarter. And regardless of the -- perhaps because of the recalibration, but clearly there's some deterioration there.

  • Can you give us a sense -- especially since this has been a business you guys have been focused on, it has been a core segment, it does seem like you guys have been more conservative -- whether there is additional risk that you will see more deterioration in this business line and as your exposed to this business line really dampening your results overall? So I'm curious what the outlook is especially given the economic backdrop for what you are seeing in SMEs?

  • And secondly, just -- I think the earlier question I was going to asking you about fees. I will go ahead and ask it as well. You have seen some stability in fees after a very difficult few years because of regulatory issues and what not. I suppose you think we have seen the bottom as client growth has materialized. But where do you see fee growth sort of tracking at over the next year or two? Do you see high single-digits? How do you see fee growth evolving over the next couple of years?

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Okay. In terms of SME, as you rightly point, this quarter looks especially low the contribution because of the one-time recalibration of the model and therefore the amount of provision has jumped very materially. But that is we perceive as a sense of precautionary measure to be fully protected even though -- even if the economy doesn't rebound as most of the market is expecting.

  • Contrary to that, if you see the gross revenues are growing close to 7%, which is relatively sound. And at the same time, the absolute profitability and the ROE here we are getting that done on -- excluding this one-timer has consistently been ahead of 20%. So it's a segment that we want to be and is very profitable. Simply that because of the weaker operational environment we have taken actions to be hopefully fully protected even in the event of the economy driving more than what the market is expecting.

  • So it's a segment -- the point there is that there are different realities. The SME universe is very broad and what we have been switching is similar to what we have been doing in the individual's universe, moving away from the relatively low end of the market and much more into the upper end of the market.

  • Here what we are doing is moving away from those companies that just borrow money and moving to those companies that apart from borrowing money give us other sort of compensations, either fee income -- fee based income, treasury type of activity and especially cash management. And that's why, as you see, the fee income there's a big increase, although from a relatively low base, on a year-on-year basis and on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

  • So just to wrap it, it's a segment we want to be present in. It's simply that you have to be careful, to be more selective. But if once you are selective -- and that's why we have been tightening the screws of our credit model. We think we can get a good profitability in the segment as a whole.

  • In terms of fees, probably we talked this last year that we were seeing this year fee growth in the low teens, in the low single-digits, which at the end of the year is very likely we will be seeing.

  • And why is that? Because once we start increasing clients, there's a lag of close to one year when a new client comes into the Bank and is fully accretive in terms of fee contribution. And that's why today we are starting to reap the clients that came into the Bank last year. And that's why you have sort of a momentum that is embedded in our current client base that should be giving fees going forward.

  • And that's why taking the next year we think that we could achieve growth of 5%, 6% and in fact somewhat higher growth fees on a year-on-year basis because most of our fees now are linked to use, which is of course different when fees were relying on having the product -- which other fees that had been under more review by regulation, et cetera.

  • So going forward, to make a long story short, probably in the middle to high single-digit range, especially in the consumer side and the select clients of Santander are the middle to high end of the consumer market.

  • Saul Martinez - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. Can you -- just a follow-up. Would you be willing -- you said in your earlier question that the one-off and provisions which related to the combined effect of recalibrating consumer and SME models. Would you mind sharing how much you took up for additional reserves in SMEs and how much you released for consumer loan loss provisions because of that recalibration?

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • I just wanted the gross?

  • Unidentified Company Representative

  • The gross in SMEs was CLP44 billion.

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • The gross in SMEs was CLP44 billion.

  • Unidentified Company Representative

  • And the gross in consumer --

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Yes.

  • Unidentified Company Representative

  • -- CLP36 billion.

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Yes. Roughly the gross constitution in SMEs was CLP44 billion and the release in the consumer side was grossly CLP36 billion.

  • Saul Martinez - Analyst

  • Okay, that sounds great. Thank you very much. That's very helpful.

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Okay.

  • Operator

  • Tito Labarta, Deutsche Bank.

  • Tito Labarta - Analyst

  • My question is just in terms of your profitability kind of longer term. You mentioned if you exclude inflation or on a more normalized levels of inflation around 3%, you expect ROEs of around 19% to 20%. Is that kind of what we should expect going forward? And given the kind of the slowdown we have seen in Chile, do you think there could be even some more downside to that? I just want to get a sense of what you are thinking long term in terms of your ability to sustain your ROEs at around 20% or so. Thank you.

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Yes, thank you, Tito. No, I would say that our medium-term goal is to maintain our stated ROE between 19% and 20% as we have done in the last eight quarters or so. The effect of inflation actually if you calculate it by using a normalized inflation or the headline inflation tends to cancel in seven, eight quarters moving average.

  • There was some -- a piece of research that actually tracked our results excluding the effect of inflation and basically proving that. And therefore, inflation is very relevant for the very short-term results. But for the medium-term results, for say, one year to one-year-and-a-half results are explained very easily.

  • And that's why, depending on your planning horizon, inflation is a very relevant element or completely irrelevant if you are looking for medium to long term. So that's why in our case, which we are hopefully managing the Bank for the medium to long term, inflation is not a value creation mechanism.

  • We create value with clients, by field operations. And that's why we think that in the medium-term perspective ROEs of 19% to 20% can be achieved. That means that we will be to some extent absorbing the higher tax rates that we will have to pay going forward by means of increasing productivity and by means of fully getting the push of our new tools, the ones that are linked to the transformation project.

  • And that's why if not for that, our pre-tax income -- our pre-tax ROE could have been rising in time simply that because taxes are going to be rising in the next three or four years. We expect ROE to be in the 19%-20% range, which is a challenge, but we think that we have the tools to deliver that.

  • Tito Labarta - Analyst

  • Okay, great. So the 19% to 20% also includes the impact of the tax reform (inaudible) you think you can still sustain that level?

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • That is the challenge we have set.

  • Tito Labarta - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Okay. And we have no other questions.

  • Raimundo Monge - Director of Strategic Planning

  • Okay. Well, thank you all very much for taking the time to participate in today's call. We look forward to speaking with you again soon. Have a good day.