使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Krista, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Brightstar Lottery third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)
女士們、先生們,感謝你們的耐心等待。我叫克麗絲塔,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。此時此刻,我謹代表 Brightstar Lottery 公司,歡迎各位參加 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)
I would now like to turn the conference over to James Hurley, Vice President of Investor Relations. James, you may begin.
現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁詹姆斯·赫爾利先生。詹姆斯,你可以開始了。
James Hurley - Vice President, Investor Relations
James Hurley - Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you and thank you all for joining us on Brightstar Lottery's Q3 2025 earnings conference call, which is being hosted by Vince Sadusky, our Chief Executive Officer; and Max Chiara, our Chief Financial Officer. After some prepared remarks, both Vince and Max will be available for your questions.
感謝各位參加 Brightstar Lottery 2025 年第三季財報電話會議,本次會議由我們的執行長 Vince Sadusky 和財務長 Max Chiara 主持。在發表一些事先準備好的演講後,Vince 和 Max 將回答大家的問題。
During today's call, we will be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. The principal risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from our current expectations are detailed in our latest earnings release and in our SEC filings.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將根據聯邦證券法做出一些前瞻性陳述。前瞻性聲明並非保證,我們的實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。可能導致我們的業績與當前預期存在重大差異的主要風險和不確定性已在最新的盈利報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細說明。
During today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. You'll find additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations with comparable GAAP measures in our press release, slides accompanying this webcast and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our Investor Relations website. Our statements are as of today, November 4, and we have no obligation to update any forward-looking statements we make.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將討論一些非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們的新聞稿、本次網路直播的幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中找到有關這些非GAAP指標的更多披露信息,包括與可比GAAP指標的調節表,所有這些文件都發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上。我們的聲明截至今日(11月4日),我們沒有義務更新我們所做的任何前瞻性聲明。
And now I'll turn the call over to Vince.
現在我把電話交給文斯。
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you, Jim, and good morning to all. We achieved many strategic milestones in the third quarter. This includes closing the IGT Gaming sale for $4 billion in cash, executing on our shareholder return plans, and completing the refocusing of the company as a lottery pure-play business. A big congratulations to the Brightstar team for their dedication and resilience in getting us here.
謝謝你,吉姆,大家早安。我們在第三季實現了多個戰略里程碑。這包括以 40 億美元現金完成 IGT Gaming 的出售,執行我們的股東回報計劃,以及完成公司向純粹的彩票業務的重新定位。在此衷心祝賀 Brightstar 團隊,感謝他們的奉獻精神和堅韌不拔的精神,使我們取得了今天的成就。
Today's better-than-expected Q3 revenue and profit results reflect a significant acceleration of global same-store sales across all geographies. Year-to-date revenue of $1.8 billion highlights the scale of our business which is driven by the sustained growth of core instant ticket and draw game sales. That's translated into solid profits and cash flow generation, which are attractive characteristics of our lottery business.
今天公佈的第三季營收和利潤業績優於預期,反映出全球所有地區的同店銷售額均顯著加速成長。今年迄今的營收達到 18 億美元,凸顯了我們業務的規模,這主要得益於核心即開型彩票和抽獎遊戲銷售的持續成長。這轉化為穩定的利潤和現金流,這是我們彩票業務的吸引人特點。
You can appreciate this in the nearly $1 billion we've returned to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases this year, including the dividend we announced today. That $0.22 cash dividend per share is a 10% increase from our historical rate and is a clear demonstration of our commitment to enhancing shareholder returns.
從我們今年透過分紅和股票回購等方式向股東返還的近 10 億美元(包括我們今天宣布的分紅)可以看出這一點。每股0.22美元的現金股息比我們以往的水平提高了10%,這清楚地表明了我們致力於提高股東回報的承諾。
Same-store sales rose an impressive 8% in the third quarter, including 4% growth for core instant and draw games. In the US, same-store sales were up 8%, and Multi-state Jackpot same-store sales rose 70%, fueled by $1.8 billion Powerball Jackpot in the period. We also had a nearly 2% increase in instant and draw game same-store sales. Thanks to the continued success of our high-priced instant tickets in California and Florida and e-instant growth in Georgia.
第三季同店銷售額實現了令人矚目的 8% 的成長,其中核心即開型和抽牌型遊戲成長了 4%。在美國,同店銷售額成長了 8%,而多州彩券同店銷售額成長了 70%,這主要得益於同期 18 億美元的強力球彩券獎金。我們的即時遊戲和抽獎遊戲同店銷售額也成長了近 2%。感謝我們在加州和佛羅裡達州的高價即開型彩票的持續成功,以及在喬治亞州電子即開型彩票的增長。
Italy same-store sales were up solid mid-single digits with strength across both instant and draw games. The Miliardario relaunch and summer bundle performed well as did the new EUR25 special edition VIP game. 10eLotto's multi-bet payslip and Gioco del Lotto's Numero Oro option continue to fuel Italy draw game growth. Overall lottery sales increased over 30% in the period. In Italy, digital-only Giuoco Piano games are driving e-instant growth, while our new 10eLotto fast game is contributing to double-digit e-draw expansion.
義大利同店銷售額實現了穩健的中個位數成長,即開型彩券和抽獎型彩券均表現強勁。Miliardario 的重新推出和夏季套餐表現良好,新推出的 EUR25 特別版 VIP 遊戲也是如此。 10eLotto 的多注投注單和 Gioco del Lotto 的 Numero Oro 選項繼續推動義大利彩票遊戲的成長。在此期間,彩票總銷售額成長超過30%。在義大利,純數位版的 Giuoco Piano 遊戲正在推動電子即開型彩票的成長,而我們新推出的 10eLotto 快速遊戲也促成了兩位數的電子彩票開獎規模擴張。
iLottery momentum is equally strong in the US, where robust user growth in Georgia and Kentucky is complemented by the high-performing Elephant King and Cats Jackpot games. Viking Gold, our first AI developed game went live in Rhode Island and Kentucky a few weeks ago, marrying proven game mechanics with AI generated animation. There are several more AI developed games in the pipeline.
iLottery 在美國的發展勢頭同樣強勁,喬治亞州和肯塔基州的用戶成長勢頭強勁,而表現出色的 Elephant King 和 Cats Jackpot 遊戲也功不可沒。我們首款人工智慧開發的遊戲《維京黃金》幾週前在羅德島州和肯塔基州上線,它將成熟的遊戲機制與人工智慧生成的動畫結合。還有幾款由人工智慧開發的遊戲正在開發中。
We introduced the new Brightstar brand to partners in North America and Europe at the recent NASPL and European Lotteries trade shows. Brightstar received significant interest from customers eager to see the latest in lottery innovation to engage players.
在最近的北美彩券及歐洲彩券貿易展上,我們向北美和歐洲的合作夥伴推出了全新的 Brightstar 品牌。Brightstar 受到了客戶的極大關注,他們渴望看到最新的彩票創新技術來吸引玩家。
Brightstar's AI capabilities were of particular interest, including our new game plan [Wizard] a tool that analyzes instant ticket inventory and the performance of past games to assist in forecasting and building optimized game launch plans. For over 50 years, our innovative products and services have helped our customers excel. We believe the current roster will drive compelling incremental value over the next few years.
Brightstar 的人工智慧功能尤其引人注目,包括我們新的遊戲計劃 [Wizard],這是一個分析即時門票庫存和過去遊戲表現的工具,以幫助預測和製定優化的遊戲發布計劃。50多年來,我們不斷創新的產品和服務幫助客戶取得了卓越成就。我們相信,目前的陣容將在未來幾年內帶來可觀的增量價值。
Now I'll turn the call over to Max.
現在我把電話交給Max。
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
Thank you, Vince, and hello to everyone joining us on the call today. Before I discuss the third quarter results, I want to note the early adoption of new accounting disclosures changed the geography of certain expense items on the income statement. Overall, results have not impacted, and we have provided historical recast financials, reflecting these changes at the back of today's Q3 earnings press release.
謝謝文斯,也向今天參加電話會議的各位問好。在討論第三季業績之前,我想指出,提前採用新的會計揭露方式改變了損益表中某些費用項目的分佈。總體而言,業績並未受到影響,我們已在今天發布的第三季收益新聞稿末尾提供了歷史重述財務數據,反映了這些變化。
Now on with the quarter's results. Better-than-expected third quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA were primarily driven by strong same-store sales across jurisdictions and game types. Adjusted EPS improved significantly in the quarter from a $0.02 loss in the prior year to earnings of $0.36 in the current year and increased 20% on a year-to-date basis, driven by improvements in net interest, income taxes, and G&A expenses, partially offset by higher gross profit in the prior year.
接下來公佈本季業績。第三季營收和調整後 EBITDA 好於預期,主要得益於各地區和遊戲類型的同店銷售強勁成長。經調整後的每股盈餘在本季度顯著改善,從去年同期的虧損 0.02 美元增至本年同期的盈利 0.36 美元,年初至今增長了 20%,這主要得益於淨利息、所得稅和一般及行政費用的改善,但部分被上年同期更高的毛利潤所抵消。
The Q3 and year-to-date EPS figures do not yet fully reflect the benefit of the 13.6 million shares delivered to date under our accelerated share repurchase activities. The actual number of shares outstanding at the end of the quarter has been reduced to approximately 190 million shares. Third quarter revenue of $629 million grew 7% from prior year, up 5% at constant currency. Improved trends in same-store sales across all geographies drove a $19 million increase in instant ticket and draw revenue.
第三季和年初至今的每股盈餘數據尚未完全反映出我們快速股票回購活動迄今交付的 1,360 萬股股票所帶來的收益。截至季末,實際流通股數已減少至約 1.9 億股。第三季營收為 6.29 億美元,較上年同期成長 7%,以固定匯率計算成長 5%。各地區同店銷售額的改善趨勢推動即開型彩券和抽獎收入增加了 1,900 萬美元。
Italy's 6% growth was especially impressive, even when normalized for a like number of Lotto draws, rising 5.3%. US Multi-state Jackpot revenue increased $15 million, primarily due to elevated activity associated with a $1.8 billion Powerball Jackpot and other service revenue decreased $10 million primarily due to non-wager-based revenue from European contracts in the prior year. Please note that this is the first quarter of the UK transition, which I'll address in more detail shortly.
義大利 6% 的成長率尤其令人印象深刻,即使考慮到樂透開獎次數相同,其成長率也達到了 5.3%。美國多州彩票獎金收入增加了 1500 萬美元,主要原因是與 18 億美元的強力球彩票獎金相關的活動增加;其他服務收入減少了 1000 萬美元,主要原因是上一年歐洲合約的非投注收入減少。請注意,這是英國過渡時期的第一個季度,我稍後會詳細討論這個問題。
Third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $294 million rose 11% or 7% at constant currency. High flow-through of wager-based revenue growth resulting from strong sales, store sales, and Jackpot productivity and lower costs associated with expense recoveries were partially offset by the non-wager-based service revenue impact in Europe that I just mentioned and the impact of product sales mix and start-up costs associated with the new printing price. In addition, the transition of the UK contract had a negative impact of around $6 million in the third quarter and is expected to cause a headwind of about $14 million to revenue and EBITDA in Q4.
第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.94 億美元,年增 11%,以固定匯率計算成長 7%。投注收入成長帶來的強勁成長(得益於強勁的銷售、門市銷售和獎金池生產力)以及與費用回收相關的成本降低,部分被我剛才提到的歐洲非投注服務收入的影響以及產品銷售組合和與新印刷價格相關的啟動成本的影響所抵消。此外,英國合約的過渡對第三季造成了約 600 萬美元的負面影響,預計將對第四季度的收入和 EBITDA 造成約 1,400 萬美元的不利影響。
Cash flow from operations and free cash flow for the third quarter and year-to-date periods reflect the impact of the first installment of the Lotto license fee. On a year-to-date basis, cash flow from operations was a negative $6 million or a positive $573 million when you adjust for the $579 million Italy Lotto up from license fee. And free cash flow was a negative $245 million or a positive $334 million when you make that same adjustment.
第三季和年初至今的經營活動現金流和自由現金流反映了彩票牌照費第一期款項的影響。年初至今,經營活動產生的現金流為負 600 萬美元,但如果扣除義大利彩券牌照費帶來的 5.79 億美元,則為正 5.73 億美元。而自由現金流則為負 2.45 億美元,或以同樣的調整後為正 3.34 億美元。
$2 billion of the IGT Gaming sale proceeds were used to reduce debt, improving net debt to $2.6 billion at the end of the third quarter. As Vince mentioned, we have delivered significant shareholder returns this year with around $980 million already paid to shareholders and an additional $42 million to be paid in the fourth quarter, marking a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.22 per share.
出售 IGT Gaming 所得的 20 億美元用於減少債務,使第三季末的淨債務降至 26 億美元。正如文斯所提到的,今年我們已經為股東帶來了豐厚的回報,已向股東支付了約 9.8 億美元,第四季度還將支付 4,200 萬美元,季度股息將增長 10%,達到每股 0.22 美元。
Our financial profile is strong with total liquidity of $3.2 billion and net debt leverage of 2.3x. This puts us in a solid financial position in advance of the two remaining Italy Lotto license fee installments. As a reminder, the fee payable in three tranches with EUR500 million already paid in July, EUR300 million due in the fourth quarter, and the balance of EUR1.43 billion due by April 2026.
我們的財務狀況穩健,總流動資金達32億美元,淨負債槓桿比率為2.3倍。這使我們在支付剩餘兩期義大利樂透牌照費之前,擁有穩固的財務基礎。提醒一下,這筆費用分三期支付,其中 5 億歐元已於 7 月支付,3 億歐元將於第四季支付,剩餘的 14.3 億歐元將於 2026 年 4 月支付。
Brightstar is responsible for 61.5% of the total, so EUR1.37 billion or approximately $1.6 billion at current rates, and our consortium partners will fund the balance. We are reaffirming our full year '25 revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook of approximately $2.5 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively.
Brightstar 將承擔總額的 61.5%,即 13.7 億歐元,按當前匯率約合 16 億美元,其餘部分將由我們的財團合作夥伴出資。我們重申對 2025 年全年營收和調整後 EBITDA 的預期,分別為約 25 億美元和 11 億美元。
Cash from operations for continuing operations is now expected to be a negative $220 million or about $700 million positive when excluding the Italy Lotto license fee, an improvement of about $55 million from our prior expectations, primarily due to timing of working capital and a cumulative improvement of about $150 million from the original outlook for the year, reflecting a laser-focused approach to the non-EBITDA items affecting cash generation.
持續經營業務的經營活動現金流預計為負 2.2 億美元,若不計入意大利彩票牌照費,則預計為正 7 億美元左右,較我們之前的預期改善約 5500 萬美元,主要原因是營運資金到位時間的調整,較年初的預期累計改善約 1.5 億美元,現金流我們採取了針對影響ITDA 的非精準策略。
CapEx is being revised lower to around $340 million due to timing shift. Overall, this represents about $110 million improvement in the outlook for CapEx versus what we expected at the beginning of the year.
由於時間安排調整,資本支出預計下調至約3.4億美元。總體而言,這代表資本支出前景較年初預期改善了約 1.1 億美元。
Now I will turn the call back over to Vince as we present an update on the business.
現在我將把電話轉回給文斯,讓他為大家介紹一下公司的最新情況。
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Great. Thanks, Max. Well, now that the sale of gaming is complete and Brightstar is a pure-play lottery company, we thought it would be helpful to provide an overview of business attributes as well as some future financial targets to assist current and prospective investors in evaluating our company. The name Brightstar may be new. However, the company's leadership in the lottery business draws on nearly 50 years of experience.
偉大的。謝謝你,馬克斯。既然遊戲業務的出售已經完成,Brightstar 也成為了一家純粹的彩票公司,我們認為有必要概述一下公司的業務特點以及一些未來的財務目標,以幫助現有和潛在的投資者評估我們公司。Brightstar 這個名字可能是個新名字。然而,該公司在彩票行業的領先地位源於近 50 年的經驗累積。
During this time, we've developed and deployed some of the leading products and services in the industry. As the premier pure-play global lottery company, our mission is to elevate lotteries and inspire players. For decades, our innovative solutions have helped customers to excel and distinguish their lotteries from other forms of discretionary consumer spending. Today, we're shaping the future of the global lottery business in partnership with our customers.
在此期間,我們開發並部署了一些業內領先的產品和服務。作為全球領先的純粹彩票公司,我們的使命是提升彩票行業水平,激勵玩家。幾十年來,我們創新的解決方案幫助客戶脫穎而出,並將彩票與其他形式的非必需消費支出區分開來。今天,我們正與客戶攜手,共同塑造全球彩券產業的未來。
The return to a singular focus on lottery marks an exciting new chapter. Brightstar enjoys global leadership in a growing industry, and the singular focus improves our ability to continue to innovate and execute. Our business has been consistent as we have serviced our lottery customers well and as a result, have had an average customer relationship of about 30 years.
重新專注於彩票業務標誌著一個令人興奮的新篇章。Brightstar 在蓬勃發展的行業中享有全球領先地位,而這種單一的專注提高了我們持續創新和執行的能力。由於我們一直為彩票客戶提供優質服務,我們的業務一直很穩定,因此,我們與客戶的平均合作關係約為 30 年。
One of our unique competitive advantages is we're the only system provider who is also a significant operator of lotteries in both the US and Europe. This gives our team great insight as a customer of our own products and services.
我們獨特的競爭優勢之一是,我們是唯一一家既是系統供應商又是美國和歐洲重要彩票營運商的公司。這讓我們的團隊能夠以客戶的身份,深入了解我們自己的產品和服務。
The world lottery industry has experienced steady growth for decades and accelerated growth during the COVID years. To this day, lottery sales remain at those elevated levels, which is remarkable, considering the significant expansion of online consumer gambling options.
世界彩票業幾十年來一直保持穩定成長,並在新冠疫情期間加速成長。時至今日,彩票銷售額仍然保持在如此高的水平,考慮到線上消費者賭博選擇的大幅增長,這著實令人矚目。
Also, unlike other forms of gambling, lottery play has been very resilient to our economic downturns. Another significant positive is the long-term contract nature of our business, both as an exclusive system provider and as an operator, providing greater visibility into future revenue, profit, and cash flows than many other industries.
此外,與其他形式的賭博不同,彩票遊戲對經濟衰退的抵抗力非常強。另一個顯著的優勢是我們業務的長期合約性質,無論是作為獨家系統供應商還是營運商,都比許多其他行業更能清晰地了解未來的收入、利潤和現金流。
Providing incremental upside to the traditional lottery business has been our leading position into high-growth iLottery operations. We expect broader lottery adoption, especially in the US and Italy, will continue and meaningfully enhance sales growth. We believe our global leadership position provides us a clear right to win in iLottery.
為傳統彩票業務帶來增量收益一直是我們在高成長型 iLottery 業務領域佔據領先地位的原因。我們預計彩票的普及程度將會繼續提高,尤其是在美國和義大利,這將顯著促進銷售成長。我們相信,我們在全球的領先地位賦予了我們在網路彩票領域贏得勝利的絕對權利。
The Brightstar team and Board have consistently worked to unlock the intrinsic value of our assets, disposing of non-core businesses, strengthening the balance sheet, and increasing capital returns to shareholders. We believe our current valuation provides a compelling entry point as we execute on strategies to create shareholder value.
Brightstar 團隊和董事會一直致力於釋放我們資產的內在價值,剝離非核心業務,加強資產負債表,並提高股東的資本回報。我們相信,隨著我們實施創造股東價值的策略,我們目前的估值提供了一個極具吸引力的入場點。
The scope of Brightstar's capabilities and geographic reach is unmatched. We are uniquely able to either operate lotteries on a B2C basis or provide technology and other services on a B2B basis. We work with about 90 customers around the world with leading market share in the US and Italy, our two main markets. Our service contracts are mainly exclusive and long-term in nature, with an average length of over 10 years.
Brightstar 的商業能力和地理覆蓋範圍是無與倫比的。我們擁有獨特的優勢,既可以以 B2C 模式經營彩票業務,也可以以 B2B 模式提供技術和其他服務。我們與全球約 90 家客戶合作,在美國和義大利這兩個主要市場擁有領先的市場份額。我們的服務合約主要為獨家和長期性質,平均期限超過 10 年。
Incumbency has tremendous value, evidenced by a nearly 100% FM and operator contract renewal rate in the US and Italy over the last 15 years. We generated $2.5 billion in revenue last year, about 80% recurring in nature. That translated into $1.2 billion of EBITDA and about $700 million in cash from operations.
現有優勢具有巨大的價值,過去 15 年美國和義大利的設施管理和營運商合約續約率接近 100%,就證明了這一點。我們去年創造了 25 億美元的收入,其中約 80% 是經常性收入。這轉化為 12 億美元的 EBITDA 和約 7 億美元的營運活動現金流。
Brightstar's investment appeal and unique competitive position rests on four pillars. First is the unparalleled depth of industry experience across our leadership team; second is the large growing global lottery industry characterized by exclusive long-term contracts requiring specialized expertise; third is our market leadership and recurring revenue base; and fourth, our technology product leadership bolstered by a 50-year history of proven innovation and our unique position in the value chain.
Brightstar 的投資吸引力和獨特的競爭地位建立在四大支柱之上。首先,我們的領導團隊擁有無可比擬的深厚行業經驗;其次,全球彩票行業規模龐大且不斷增長,其特點是簽訂獨家長期合同,需要專業知識;第三,我們擁有市場領導地位和經常性收入基礎;第四,我們擁有技術產品領先地位,這得益於我們50年來久經考驗的創新歷史以及我們在價值鏈中的獨特地位。
We've built a focused strategy to evolve the business and create compelling incremental value over the next several years. The focus is on defending and growing core contracts, pursuing targeted expansion, and leading in iLottery especially in the US and Italy, our main markets where Brightstar is well positioned to win with established leadership.
我們制定了一項重點策略,旨在推動業務發展,並在未來幾年內創造令人信服的增量價值。重點在於捍衛和發展核心合同,追求有針對性的擴張,並在 iLottery 領域保持領先地位,尤其是在美國和意大利這兩個我們的主要市場,Brightstar 憑藉其已確立的領導地位,在這些市場中佔據有利地位。
We are also focused on driving efficiencies through our optimal cost savings program, digitization, and broader AI adoption. These initiatives are expected to drive up to $1.7 billion in capital return to shareholders in the '25 through '28 period. The lottery industry has delivered steady mid-single-digit growth over the last 20 years and has demonstrated remarkable resilience during periods of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
我們也致力於透過優化成本節約計劃、數位化和更廣泛地採用人工智慧來提高效率。預計這些舉措將在 2025 年至 2028 年期間為股東帶來高達 17 億美元的資本回報。過去 20 年,彩票行業一直保持著穩定的中等個位數成長,並在宏觀經濟和地緣政治不確定時期表現出了非凡的韌性。
Industry sales have climbed even as new gaming alternatives have become available. We expect that mid-single-digit growth profile to be maintained over the next several years, fueled by broader iLottery adoption. This supports strong predictable revenue and cash flow for us through our percentage of service contracts.
即使新的遊戲替代品不斷湧現,產業銷售額仍攀升。我們預計,在更廣泛的 iLottery 普及推動下,未來幾年將保持中等個位數的成長動能。這為我們透過服務合約的分成,提供了穩定可靠的收入和現金流。
As I mentioned earlier, incumbency is a powerful asset. We retained nearly 100% of our facilities management and operator contract revenue in the US and Italy over the last 15 years and over 70% of current FM and operator contract revenue is secured or extendable beyond 2028. This provides great visibility and predictability into our revenue and cash flows over the next several years.
正如我之前提到的,現任優勢是一項強大的資產。過去 15 年,我們在美國和義大利保留了近 100% 的設施管理和營運合約收入,目前超過 70% 的設施管理和營運合約收入已得到保障或可延長至 2028 年以後。這將使我們對未來幾年的收入和現金流有更好的可視性和可預測性。
Three key levers will drive incremental growth for our core business. The first is share expansion. There's over $12 billion in lottery industry sales currently owned by competitors that is up for rebid by 2028, much of which is outside the US. We've recently dedicated more management resources to pursuing these opportunities.
三大關鍵槓桿將推動我們核心業務的逐步成長。第一點是擴大市場佔有率。目前,彩票行業有超過 120 億美元的銷售額由競爭對手擁有,這些銷售額將在 2028 年之前重新招標,其中大部分位於美國境外。我們最近投入了更多管理資源來尋求這些機會。
Brazil, for example, is a compelling market opportunity where we've already established an initial foothold in Minas Gerais. The second lever is product innovation and portfolio optimization. Lottery is a supply-driven business and compelling new games are a powerful call to action. Optimizing the pricing and payouts of a lottery game portfolio is an effective way to deliver the most engaging player experiences across a broad range of taste and preferences. This strategy worked well for us in Italy over the last several years.
例如,巴西是一個極具吸引力的市場機遇,我們已經在米納斯吉拉斯州建立了初步的立足點。第二個槓桿是產品創新和產品組合最佳化。彩票產業是一個供應驅動型產業,引人入勝的新遊戲能夠有效地吸引消費者。優化彩票遊戲組合的定價和賠付,是為各種口味和偏好的玩家提供最具吸引力的體驗的有效方法。過去幾年,這項策略在義大利對我們來說非常有效。
Channel and touch point expansion is the third lever. Making lottery games more accessible to players is an effective way to drive sales growth. The recruitment of new retailers with large store networks and the deployment of self-service vending machines are great examples of a proven way to do this.
通路和觸點拓展是第三個槓桿。讓玩家更容易參與彩票遊戲是促進銷售成長的有效途徑。招募擁有大型門市網路的新零售商以及部署自助式販賣機,都是行之有效的實現這一目標的絕佳例證。
New technologies that facilitate higher sales velocity like LotteryLink and our cloud-based tech solutions are other examples of products designed to increase sales. LotteryLink is now live in New Jersey, and we've begun to deploy self-service vending machines in high-traffic locations throughout Italy. Broader iLottery adoption, especially in the US and Italy, is a major driver of incremental growth over the next several years.
像 LotteryLink 和我們的雲端技術解決方案這樣的新技術,都是旨在提高銷售額的產品範例。LotteryLink 現已在新澤西州上線,我們已開始在義大利各地人流量大的地點部署自助售票機。iLottery 的更廣泛普及,尤其是在美國和義大利,將是未來幾年成長的主要驅動力。
Brightstar is well positioned to expand market share across platforms and content. We're already the global leader in iLottery platforms that have built a library of over 300 games used by nearly 20 customers. In the US, iLottery penetration is under 10%, with only 14 lotteries live and none of the top 5 participating. Mature markets reach over 40% showing strong player interest.
Brightstar 已做好充分準備,擴大其在各個平台和內容領域的市場份額。我們已是全球領先的線上彩票平台,建立了包含 300 多款遊戲的庫,服務近 20 家客戶。在美國,網路彩券的滲透率不到 10%,目前只有 14 家彩券公司在經營,排名前 5 的彩券公司都未參與其中。成熟市場佔比超過 40%,顯示出玩家的濃厚興趣。
Our US iLottery sales have grown well above the market rate over the last few years, and we've been awarded two of the last four platforms. We expect 20%-plus annual iLottery growth for the next several years. This is supported by winning new jurisdictions, including leveraging our strong track record of performance with our FM customers as we have successfully done in Tennessee and Missouri.
過去幾年,我們的美國 iLottery 銷售額成長遠超市場平均水平,並且我們獲得了最近四個平台中的兩個。我們預計未來幾年 iLottery 的年增率將超過 20%。這得益於我們贏得了新的管轄區,包括利用我們在田納西州和密蘇裡州成功為 FM 客戶取得的良好業績記錄。
Game innovation and portfolio optimization offer additional potential as we are on track to launch about 40 new e-instant games each year. Our CRM tools help customers drive growth by delivering customized engaging player experiences using rich player insights. The iLottery opportunity is equally compelling in Italy.
遊戲創新和產品組合優化提供了更多潛力,因為我們正按計劃每年推出約 40 款新的電子即時遊戲。我們的客戶關係管理工具利用豐富的玩家洞察,為客戶帶來客製化的、引人入勝的玩家體驗,從而幫助客戶推動業務成長。在義大利,iLottery 的機會同樣具有吸引力。
As the operator of the country's two largest lottery games, we are well positioned to lead digital expansion. Italy is one of the world's most attractive gaming markets, with total market wagers growing at a 7% CAGR over the last decade, including 20% digital growth. Land-based wagers have grown alongside digital expansion.
作為全國兩大彩票遊戲的營運商,我們擁有引領數位化擴張的良好基礎。義大利是世界上最具吸引力的博彩市場之一,過去十年間,其博彩市場總投注額以 7% 的複合年增長率增長,其中數位博彩增長了 20%。隨著數位科技的擴張,實體賭場也隨之發展壯大。
Today, iLottery penetration in Italy is just 3%. By comparison to other European markets range from mid-teens to over 50%. Italy's digital acceptance is clear. iGaming and online sports betting have reached 30% and 55% penetration, respectively. We aim to bring Italy's iLottery penetration in line with European benchmarks by 2030.
目前,義大利的線上彩票滲透率僅為 3%。與其他歐洲市場相比,這一比例在 15% 到 50% 以上。義大利對數位化的接受度顯而易見。網路遊戲和線上運動博彩的滲透率分別達到了30%和55%。我們的目標是到 2030 年將義大利的 iLottery 普及率達到歐洲標準。
As we execute proven iLottery strategies in Italy, we've identified other avenues to increase digital adoption. One is to activate digital solutions in our 58,000 Lotto and Scratch & Win points of sale to enhance the overall player in retail experience. In the last year, Lotto and Scratch & Win reached 9.5 million and 17.1 million players, respectively, representing 40% to 75% of Italy's total gaming population.
隨著我們在義大利實施行之有效的 iLottery 策略,我們發現了其他提高數位化普及率的途徑。一是在我們 58,000 個彩票和刮刮樂銷售點啟用數位解決方案,以提升玩家在零售店的整體體驗。去年,義大利的樂透和刮刮樂分別吸引了 950 萬和 1,710 萬名玩家,佔義大利博彩總人數的 40% 至 75%。
We've already begun executing this digital strategy with the MyLotteriesPlay launch earlier this year. In just nine months, we've gained three incremental points of market share with minimal marketing effort. MyLotteriesPlay also enables expansion into iCasino, digital sports betting, and Bingo.
我們已在今年稍早透過 MyLotteriesPlay 的推出開始執行這項數位化策略。短短九個月內,我們僅用了極少的行銷投入就獲得了三個百分點的市佔率成長。MyLotteriesPlay 還支持擴展到 iCasino、數位體育博彩和賓果遊戲。
We recently went live with over 80 iCasino games and a dozen live casino games tapping into the estimated 25% overlap between digital lottery players and those who are also engaged with iCasino and digital sports betting activity. This presents cross-selling opportunities that should drive increased average spending on iLottery and other games.
我們最近推出了 80 多款 iCasino 遊戲和十幾款真人賭場遊戲,旨在吸引數位彩票玩家和參與 iCasino 及數位體育博彩活動的玩家之間約 25% 的重疊群體。這將帶來交叉銷售機會,從而推動 iLottery 和其他遊戲的平均消費成長。
We believe we can create significant incremental value here without the need to become a market leader. We'll earn additional distribution fee on all MyLotteriesPlay activity. For lottery-related wagering, this is on top of the 50% on Lotto and 3.9% on Scratch & Win wagers. We earn as a concessionaire for those games. Needless to say, the new Lotto license unlocks significant strategic and financial opportunities, reinforcing our leadership in Italy's evolving digital gaming landscape.
我們相信,即使不成為市場領導者,我們也能在這裡創造顯著的增量價值。我們將從所有 MyLotteriesPlay 活動中賺取額外的分銷費用。對於與彩券相關的投注,這還不包括樂透投注的 50% 和刮刮樂投注的 3.9%。我們透過這些比賽獲得特許經營權。毋庸置疑,新的彩票牌照帶來了重要的策略和財務機遇,鞏固了我們在義大利不斷發展的數位遊戲領域的領先地位。
Now I'll turn the call back to Max.
現在我把電話轉回給Max。
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
Thank you, Vince. When we consider all the strategies that Vince just outlined, we believe Brightstar's organic growth rate accelerate to more than a 5% CAGR over the next three years. In terms of its building blocks, we have, first, we expect our core land-based business in the US and Italy to deliver a 3% CAGR, excluding the UK transition. Second, improved iLottery regulatory momentum in the US, combined with our long-standing market leadership there is expected to contribute another 1% CAGR.
謝謝你,文斯。考慮到 Vince 剛才概述的所有策略,我們相信 Brightstar 的自然成長率將在未來三年內加速至 5% 以上的複合年增長率。就其組成要素而言,首先,我們預計我們在美國和義大利的核心陸上業務將實現 3% 的複合年增長率,不包括英國的轉型。其次,美國 iLottery 監管勢頭的改善,加上我們長期以來在該市場的領先地位,預計將帶來另外 1% 的複合年增長率。
Third, the new Italy B2C expansion initiatives led by iLottery growth are expected to deliver another 1% CAGR. And finally, growing share in underpenetrated international markets and instant ticket printing offer additional momentum. Because the accounting impact of the amortization of the upfront fee paid in connection with the new Lotto license, will weigh on our reporting revenue, the net result in an expectation of more than a 3% CAGR.
第三,以 iLottery 成長為主導的義大利 B2C 新擴張計畫預計將帶來 1% 的複合年增長率。最後,在滲透率較低的國際市場中不斷增長的份額和即時票務列印也帶來了額外的成長動力。由於與新彩券許可證相關的預付費用攤銷的會計影響將對我們的報告收入造成壓力,因此預計年複合成長率將超過 3%。
In addition to the accelerated top line organic growth trajectory, we have identified certain operational efficiencies that are expected to deliver approximately $80 million in gross cost savings by 2028 versus the 2024 baseline. We have already communicated $50 million of these savings expected by 2026, which are mostly focused on back-office optimizations to right-size the business following the IGT Gaming sale.
除了加速的營收有機成長軌跡外,我們還確定了一些營運效率提升措施,預計到 2028 年,與 2024 年的基準相比,可節省約 8,000 萬美元的總成本。我們已經公佈了預計到 2026 年將節省的 5,000 萬美元,這些節省主要集中在後台優化上,以便在 IGT Gaming 出售後調整業務規模。
The additional $30 million OPtiMa savings we are announcing today, target primarily the cost infrastructure across our main operational areas. It also includes benefits from back-end technology modernization, increased automation, digitization, and broader AI adoption across the organization.
我們今天宣布的額外 3000 萬美元 OPtiMa 節省計劃,主要針對我們主要營運區域的成本基礎設施。它還包括後端技術現代化、自動化程度提高、數位化以及在整個組織內更廣泛地採用人工智慧所帶來的好處。
We have established a structured program to accelerate AI adoption across core processes such as content creation, software development, and corporate work streams. We expect AI-driven initiatives to yield even more on our profitable growth and on future CapEx in 2028 and beyond when these initiatives will be fully operational.
我們已製定結構化方案,以加速人工智慧在內容創作、軟體開發和企業工作流程等核心流程中的應用。我們預計,隨著人工智慧驅動的各項舉措在 2028 年及以後全面投入運營,這些舉措將對我們的獲利成長和未來的資本支出產生更大的影響。
As we have communicated previously, the '25 through '28 period represents a peak CapEx cycle for us. This is related to the renewal and repeat of several of our largest contracts, including California and Italy Lotto, which we have already secured and New York and Texas alongside Italy's Scratch & Win, which are on the horizon. There is also a sequence of smaller contracts mostly already secured.
正如我們之前所溝通的,2025 年至 2028 年期間是我們資本支出的高峰期。這與我們幾項最大合約的續約和重複簽訂有關,包括我們已經獲得的加州和義大利彩票合同,以及即將獲得的紐約和德克薩斯彩票合約以及義大利的刮刮樂彩票合約。此外,還有一系列規模較小的合同,其中大部分已經落實。
In particular, we expect average annual CapEx of about $400 million for the '25 through '28 period. The vast majority of this is traditional contractually required investments for new central systems, retail terminals, and communication infrastructure across our portfolio. There are a few new areas of strategic investment incorporated there in such as CapEx to expand the number of player touch points.
具體而言,我們預計 2025 年至 2028 年期間的平均年度資本支出約為 4 億美元。其中絕大部分是依照合約規定,對我們投資組合中的新中央系統、零售終端和通訊基礎設施進行的傳統投資。其中納入了一些新的策略投資領域,例如透過資本支出擴大玩家接觸點的數量。
This includes more spending on proven sales drivers such as self-service vending machines and new technologies such as iLotteryLink as Vince clearly explained in our strategy session. Another is investments to evolve our core technology stack to leverage new capabilities like AI and cloud infrastructure.
這包括增加對已證明有效的銷售驅動因素(如自助售貨機)和新技術(如 iLotteryLink)的投入,正如 Vince 在我們的策略會議上明確解釋的那樣。另一個方面是投資升級我們的核心技術堆疊,以利用人工智慧和雲端基礎設施等新技術。
We're also investing in infrastructure needed to support new Italy B2C opportunities activated by the new Lotto license. We continue to expect annual CapEx to moderate to about $200 million to $225 million post this peak CapEx cycle. It is important to appreciate that our CapEx investment reinforced Brightstar unique competitive advantages and directly support our accelerated organic growth outlook. They also build foundations to deliver long-term efficiencies beyond the current OPtiMa program.
我們也正在投資基礎設施,以支持新的義大利彩券牌照所帶來的新的義大利 B2C 機會。我們仍然預計,在本輪資本支出高峰期過後,年度資本支出將放緩至約 2 億至 2.25 億美元。值得注意的是,我們的資本支出投資鞏固了 Brightstar 獨特的競爭優勢,並直接支持了我們加速內生成長的前景。他們也為實現超越當前 OPtiMa 計劃的長期效率奠定了基礎。
The durability and predictability of our cash flows as a stand-alone lottery business enable us to establish some key pillars for capital allocation. The company has consistently returned capital to shareholders over the last decade through quarterly cash dividends. However, most of our capital during the period was allocated to investing in the business and reducing leverage.
作為一家獨立的彩票企業,我們現金流的持久性和可預測性使我們能夠建立一些關鍵的資本配置支柱。過去十年,該公司一直透過季度現金分紅的方式向股東返還資本。然而,在此期間,我們的大部分資金都用於投資業務和降低槓桿率。
Now we'll leverage more comfortably around our target range of 3 times. We intend to allocate more capital to invest for growth and enhance shareholder returns. In conjunction with the sale of the Gaming business, we recently announced several ways in which we are delivering increased shareholder returns. First is a two-year $500 million share repurchase authorization, representing mid-teens percent of the current market cap.
現在我們可以更輕鬆地在 3 倍的目標範圍內進行槓桿操作。我們計劃投入更多資金用於投資成長,並提高股東回報。隨著遊戲業務的出售,我們最近宣布了幾項提高股東回報的措施。首先是為期兩年的 5 億美元股票回購授權,相當於目前市值的百分之十。
As part of that authorization, we executed a $250 million accelerated share repurchase agreement, the largest in company history. We also declared a $3 per share special cash dividend that was paid in July. We intend to maintain approximately $160 million in annual regular cash dividends going forward, even with the reduced share count post execution of the buyback program, effectively increasing the per share dividend on an annualized basis. You see that in today's announcement of a 10% increase in the Q4 dividend.
作為該授權的一部分,我們執行了一項 2.5 億美元的加速股票回購協議,這是該公司歷史上規模最大的一次股票回購。我們也宣布派發每股 3 美元的特別現金股息,該股息已於 7 月支付。即使在回購計畫執行後股份數量減少,我們仍計劃維持每年約 1.6 億美元的定期現金股息,從而有效地提高年度每股股息。從今天宣布的第四季度股息增加 10% 的消息中可以看出這一點。
At the current share price, our regular dividend represents a compelling yield of around 5%. We're committed to maintaining an attractive yield even as we face increased capital intensity to maintain the contract portfolio over the next few years.
以目前股價計算,我們的常規股息殖利率約為 5%,極具吸引力。即使在未來幾年內,為了維持合約組合而面臨更高的資本密集度,我們仍致力於維持具有吸引力的收益率。
In the '25 to '28 period, we expect an aggregate $7.1 billion of cash generation to be allocated in the following manner, about $3.2 billion for investments required to maintain the existing contract portfolio and pursue targeted new growth initiatives represented by the organic CapEx and our portion of the Lotto upfront fee.
在 2025 年至 2028 年期間,我們預計總計 71 億美元的現金收入將按以下方式分配,其中約 32 億美元用於維持現有合約組合所需的投資,並用於開展有針對性的新增長計劃,這體現在有機資本支出和我們應得的彩票預付款中。
About $1.7 billion for shareholder returns, both dividends and share repurchases. The accelerated repurchase and quarterly dividend plus the special dividend that was paid already in 2025. The balance reflects our remaining share repurchase authorization and dividend we expect to pay over the next three years.
約 17 億美元用於股東回報,包括股息和股票回購。加速回購和季度分紅,加上已於 2025 年支付的特別股利。該餘額反映了我們剩餘的股票回購授權以及我們預計在未來三年內支付的股息。
About $2.2 billion split between payments to minority partners, debt reduction and other cash users. I'd like to note this multiyear allocation does not include any upfront fee for Scratch & Win in '28 as the structure of the RFP is not known at this time. Also as a reminder, our net debt at the inception of the '25 to '28 period was $4.8 billion.
約 22 億美元用於支付少數股東的款項、減少債務和其他現金用途。我想指出,這項多年撥款不包括 2028 年 Scratch & Win 的任何預付費用,因為 RFP 的結構目前尚不清楚。另外提醒一下,我們在 2025 年至 2028 年期間的淨債務為 48 億美元。
Since then, we have been able to drive our debt exposure down to today's historical low of $2.6 billion, allowing us going forward to absorb the Lotto upfront fee without significantly impacting our sound leverage, where we expect it to go above our long-term 3x target for a temporary period until the recurring cash generation of our business will allow us to realign it towards the long-term target over the next few years before engaging in discretion wind bid.
自那時以來,我們已成功將債務敞口降至目前的歷史低點 26 億美元,使我們能夠在未來承擔樂透預付款,而不會對我們穩健的槓桿率產生重大影響。我們預計,在業務的持續現金流使我們能夠在未來幾年內將其調整至長期目標 3 倍之前,槓桿率將暫時超過該目標。
Moving now to the midterm targets. We are introducing 2028 revenue and profit targets to give you a sense of where we expect the accelerated growth outlook we have outlined to take us in the medium term. By 2028, we expect revenue to reach approximately $2.75 billion.
接下來是中期目標。我們公佈 2028 年的收入和利潤目標,旨在讓您了解我們概述的加速成長前景在中期內將帶我們到什麼位置。預計到 2028 年,營收將達到約 27.5 億美元。
As a more than 5% organic CAGR net to over 3% on a reported basis as a result of the increased service revenue amortization associated with the new Lotto concession. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow at a more than 6% CAGR to $1.3 billion over the same period as top-line expansion is accentuated by optimal cost savings and other efficiency initiatives.
由於與新的彩票特許經營權相關的服務收入攤銷增加,有機複合年增長率淨值超過 5%,報告增長率超過 3%。預計同期調整後 EBITDA 將以超過 6% 的複合年增長率增長至 13 億美元,這得益於最佳成本節約和其他效率提升措施,從而推動了營收成長。
Cash conversion before upfront license fee is expected to improve to about 70%. Once we are past the peak CapEx investment cycle, we believe the business will generate over $400 million in annual free cash flow before upfront license fees, but after minority distributions.
預付許可費前的現金轉換率預計將提高到 70% 左右。一旦我們度過了資本支出投資週期的高峰期,我們相信,在支付前期許可費、少數股東分紅之後,該業務每年將產生超過 4 億美元的自由現金流。
This implies a low to mid-teens free cash flow yield at the current share price. We expect free cash flow to further increase at an accelerated pace as many of the initiatives we have talked about today mature in 2030 and beyond. We believe this is a compelling value for a growing durable business with long standing leadership positions.
這意味著以當前股價計算,自由現金流收益率在十幾到十幾之間。我們預計,隨著我們今天討論的許多舉措在 2030 年及以後逐步成熟,自由現金流將以更快的速度進一步增長。我們認為,對於一家不斷成長、擁有長期領先地位的企業而言,這是一個極具吸引力的價值。
With that said, now I'd like to open the call for questions.
說完這些,現在我想開始接受提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
Jeff Stantial, Stifel.
Jeff Stantial,Stifel。
Jeffrey Stantial - Analyst
Jeffrey Stantial - Analyst
Maybe starting off here on the new financial targets and sort of strategy that you laid out. Vince, if you take each of the buckets that are laid out on slide 23, so core growth, iLottery, Italy, all other, could you maybe just unpack a little bit further for us some of the assumptions that underpin those growth rates, meaning for iLottery?
或許可以從你所訂定的新財務目標和策略開始著手。Vince,如果你把投影片 23 上列出的每個類別(核心成長、iLottery、義大利、所有其他)都拿出來,你能否再為我們詳細解釋一下支撐這些成長率的一些假設,特別是對於 iLottery 而言?
How much is sort of same-store sales growth? How much of a benefit is new speed launching for Italy? How much is assumed for retail market share, iLottery penetration, iCasino, sports capture, that side of things? Just anything to really help us better understand the algorithm from here would be great.
同店銷售成長幅度是多少?義大利推出新的高速引擎能帶來多大的好處?零售市場份額、網路彩票滲透率、網路賭場、體育賽事份額等方面分別假設了多少份額?任何能幫助我們更好地理解這個演算法的方法都非常感謝。
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yeah, sure thing. So I think we tried to lay out really simple form the components of growth. So we think certainly the starting point is something that kind of based in recent history around the ability for the core retail to grow. And then on top of that, iLottery and the Italy B2B expansion as well as printing and product sales account for the balance.
好的,沒問題。所以我覺得我們嘗試用非常簡單的形式來闡述成長的組成部分。所以我們認為,出發點肯定是基於近期歷史,圍繞著核心零售業成長的能力展開的。此外,iLottery 和義大利 B2B 業務拓展以及印刷和產品銷售也佔了剩餘部分。
The assumptions around iLottery are primarily organic growth. We've, I think, had a realistic assumption around what incremental markets might evolve over the plan period. But I think that's really exciting from our perspective, Max and I, is the ability to look out really through 2028. So we thought the midterm targets were really, I think, important to show because the confidence we have in those, it's obviously a lot easier to -- given the nature of our business to project out a few years from now, three years from now versus going out for the longer term.
iLottery 的主要假設是自然成長。我認為,我們對計劃期內可能出現的新興市場做出了切合實際的假設。但我認為,從我和 Max 的角度來看,真正令人興奮的是能夠展望到 2028 年。所以我們認為,展示中期目標真的非常重要,因為我們對這些目標充滿信心,考慮到我們業務的性質,預測幾年後、三年後的目標顯然比預測更長期的目標要容易得多。
So on the iLottery front, we've already secured several platform deals and content deals that take time to actually initiate and then grow. So the iLottery growth in North America is primarily built around the assumption of the customers and the pool of iLottery opportunity that is currently secured.
所以在 iLottery 方面,我們已經達成了幾個平台協議和內容協議,這些協議需要時間來真正啟動,然後才能成長。因此,北美地區的 iLottery 成長主要建立在客戶群和目前已確定的 iLottery 機會池的假設之上。
On the B2C side, we've gotten a lot of questions around that, right, because that's probably the most speculative piece of the walk and most difficult for investors or potential investors to get their arms around. So we want to talk about that a bit more today, which we think is important because this is something that we think is a very, very exciting opportunity.
在 B2C 方面,我們收到了很多相關的問題,對吧?因為這可能是整個業務中最具投機性的部分,也是投資者或潛在投資者最難理解的部分。所以今天我們想再多談談這件事,我們認為這很重要,因為我們認為這是一個非常非常令人興奮的機會。
Again, when you think about our position in the marketplace, having these two long-standing lotteries that have, I think the number is somewhere around 90% of the lottery market in Italy and to have this really incredible retail distribution network and seeing what's been done in other parts of the world and the uniqueness of Italy with limited really no advertising.
再想想我們在市場上的地位,我們擁有兩家歷史悠久的彩票公司,我認為它們佔據了意大利彩票市場約 90% 的份額,而且我們擁有非常強大的零售分銷網絡,看看世界其他地方的做法,以及意大利的獨特之處——幾乎沒有廣告。
We think the things that we're doing are very, very exciting to take a market that where people really love gaming. They love to play and a well underpenetrated market in the B2C space around iLottery. We think this evolution now that we've secured Lotto just makes great sense.
我們認為我們正在做的事情非常非常令人興奮,因為我們進入了一個人們真正熱愛遊戲的市場。他們喜歡玩,而 iLottery 在 B2C 領域是一個滲透率很低的市場。我們認為,既然我們已經拿下了樂透彩票,那麼現在進行這樣的調整就非常合理了。
We haven't really disclosed what our percentages are in terms of anticipated market share. But we believe they're incredibly reasonable and to come up really three share points really just since launching our app, consolidating our play under one roof, have better usability and earner activity with our customers, with our ultimate customers, even prior to really a robust marketing effort I think, is really indicative of the potential to increase our share pretty significantly.
我們尚未公開我們預期市場份額的具體百分比。但我們認為這些數字非常合理,而且自從推出我們的應用程式以來,僅僅透過整合我們的業務,在一個平台上提升用戶體驗和客戶(最終客戶)的盈利活動,就能獲得三個百分點的市場份額增長,即使在我們真正大力開展營銷活動之前,我認為這也充分錶明了我們大幅提高市場份額的潛力。
And as we said, our share of iCasino game play and sports betting play is pretty reasonable. We said over and over again, there's established players in the market that have been at this a long time. We're not looking or anticipating share anywhere close to what they have. But it really doesn't take all that much to, I think, significantly improve the cash flow prospects of this particular business. So when you look out to '28 also, there's a ramp period.
正如我們所說,我們在 iCasino 遊戲和體育博彩方面的投入相當合理。我們一再強調,市場上有許多老牌企業,它們在這個行業已經耕耘多年。我們並不尋求或預期能獲得與他們相近的市場份額。但我認為,其實並不需要太多投入就能顯著改善這家企業的現金流前景。所以展望 2028 年,也存在著一個過渡期。
I think we've been very sober in our projected share increase over the years. And the really exciting stuff comes beyond 2028. So we think what we've built in this walk to 2028 is super reasonable. And then when you get into kind of the all other. A lot of this is built off of the instant ticket share gains we've had over the last year or 1.5 years. There's been, I think, really good work done by the team now that we've invested in our print facility, and we've got this state-of-the-art facility to have the confidence to go out and increment share.
我認為這些年來,我們對預期市場佔有率成長一直非常謹慎。而真正令人興奮的事情將在 2028 年之後發生。所以我們認為,我們為實現 2028 年目標所製定的計劃是非常合理的。然後當你進入其他所有領域時。這很大程度上是建立在過去一年或一年半的時間裡,我們獲得的即時票務份額增長之上的。我認為,自從我們投資建造印刷廠以來,團隊已經做了很多出色的工作,我們現在擁有了最先進的設施,這讓我們有信心出去增加市場份額。
Now we still have some teething pains going on with the print operation as we're perfecting this state-of-the-art, very complex facility and equipment. But we're working through that, and our goal is to be really best-in-class in printing in our Lakeland facility, to be able to distribute great product around the world. And we have a lot of the business lined up.
目前,由於我們正在完善這套先進且非常複雜的設施和設備,印刷業務方面仍存在一些初期問題。但我們正在努力解決這個問題,我們的目標是讓萊克蘭工廠的印刷水平真正達到一流水平,以便能夠向世界各地分銷優質產品。我們已經安排了很多業務。
On the product sales side, we've had a great focus on breaking down -- analyzing the capabilities and breaking down equipment, not only by our competitors, but other state-of-the-art point of sales. Equipment and terminals around the world to come up with the latest generation of equipment of hardware that we believe will make us more competitive in the sales category.
在產品銷售方面,我們非常注重分解——分析設備的功能和分解,不僅包括我們的競爭對手,還包括其他最先進的銷售點設備。我們將從世界各地採購設備和終端,研發最新一代的硬體設備,我們相信這將使我們在銷售領域更具競爭力。
And we think that's immediate. We're already out in the marketplace competing with what I believe is superior hardware products. So we feel really solid about the walk and what they're built on, largely on existing business or business -- I think, reasonable share gains based upon the anticipation of execution.
我們認為這是立竿見影的。我們已經進入市場,與我認為性能更優越的硬體產品競爭。因此,我們對此次策略及其基礎感到非常有信心,主要基於現有業務或業務——我認為,基於對執行情況的預期,可以實現合理的市場份額成長。
Jeffrey Stantial - Analyst
Jeffrey Stantial - Analyst
That's great. And then for a follow-up, maybe turning over to a return of capital, Max, I apologize if I missed this, but it seems like the full $250 million ASR at this point is pretty much effectively deployed. I didn't catch any commentary on expectations for that second $250 million tranche, whether in terms of timing, mechanism, anything like that? Any color there would be appreciated.
那太棒了。然後,作為後續問題,或許可以談談資本返還,Max,如果我錯過了這一點,我深表歉意,但目前看來,全部 2.5 億美元的 ASR 資金已經基本有效部署完畢。我沒有看到任何關於第二筆 2.5 億美元款項預期方面的評論,無論是時間安排、機制還是其他方面?任何顏色都歡迎。
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
Of course. Yes, we need a little bit of patience on that because the first tranche is still in the market. We are executing it. As we originally anticipated, the expectation is to complete the first tranche by the end of the year and the latest early January. So let's see when we get there and beyond. What other options we have for the prosecution of the buyback program.
當然。是的,我們需要耐心等待一段時間,因為第一批產品仍在市場上銷售。我們正在執行。正如我們最初預期的那樣,預計第一階段將在年底前完成,最遲在1月初完成。那麼,讓我們拭目以待,看看我們何時能夠到達那裡,以及之後會如何發展。對於回購計畫的起訴,我們還有哪些其他選擇?
Jeffrey Stantial - Analyst
Jeffrey Stantial - Analyst
Right. And just to be clear, do you know how much is still remaining on the $250 million ASR?
正確的。為了確認一下,你知道2.5億美元的ASR專案還剩下多少錢嗎?
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
The program is proceeding at pace with the original expectations. So we kind of are not walking off our estimate to be done by the end of the year.
該項目正按預期進度推進。所以我們並沒有偏離年底前完成的預估目標。
Operator
Operator
Barry Jonas, Truist.
Barry Jonas,Truist。
Patrick Keough - Analyst
Patrick Keough - Analyst
Patrick Keough on for Barry. First, Mega Millions is on a nice jackpot run right now. We're curious to get your thoughts on what you're seeing since the price change went into effect and how or when you'll know if it's been successful for you?
帕特里克·基奧替補巴里上場。首先,Mega Millions彩券目前的獎金累積情況非常好。我們很想知道,自從價格調整生效以來,您觀察到的情況如何?您如何或何時才能知道價格調整對您是否有效?
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yeah. So since Mega Millions increased their price to $5 back in the spring, back in April. Unfortunately, as you know, we -- there just has not been a good run up until now, and so it was very -- it's been very difficult to really evaluate the success of the price change. The advantage of the price change is the built-in Mega player and the math model was changed such that less of the amount of bet, the amount wagered goes to the actual jackpot and more towards these next year prices, which are significant, million, multimillions.
是的。自從 Mega Millions 彩票在春季(4 月)將價格提高到 5 美元以來。不幸的是,如您所知,到目前為止,我們的業績一直不太理想,因此很難真正評估價格調整的成功與否。價格變化的優勢在於內置了超級玩家,數學模型也進行了更改,使得投注金額中更少的部分(投注額)進入實際的獎池,而更多的部分進入下一年的獎金池,這些獎金數額巨大,達數百萬甚至數百萬美元。
And so it was the theory that this would offer a differentiated game to Powerball, which has really driven more significantly towards the top jackpot. Yeah, I think it will take time for players to understand and appreciate that. It's been -- the actual results have been according to that design.
因此,這種理論認為,這將提供一種與強力球不同的遊戲方式,從而真正顯著地提高最高獎金。是的,我認為球員們需要時間來理解和欣賞這一點。事實證明,實際結果與預期相符。
There's been many, many more payouts at the sub jackpot level. And I think that is beginning to be understood by players, but that will certainly take some time. Yeah, as with any Jackpot game, the higher the jackpot, the more the play, the more the play, the more frequent players will also win these less-than top jackpots. And I think the differentiation will be accelerated. So I think Mega's up to about $800 million now, and we're rooting for it to have a continued run. This is the highest it's been since the increase in the price, and hopefully, that continues.
小額獎金的派彩次數多得多。我認為球員們開始逐漸理解這一點,但這肯定需要一些時間。是的,和所有累積獎金遊戲一樣,獎金越高,參與的人就越多;參與的人越多,玩家就越有可能贏得這些獎金較低的獎金。我認為這種差異化趨勢將會加速。所以我覺得Mega目前的票房應該已經達到8億美元左右了,我們希望它能繼續保持這樣的勢頭。這是價格上漲以來的最高水平,希望這種趨勢能持續下去。
Patrick Keough - Analyst
Patrick Keough - Analyst
That's great. Next for Max. It's still early, but can you walk through puts and takes as we start thinking about 2026? And could you frame next year's growth relative to the 2028 targets you introduced this morning?
那太棒了。接下來是Max。現在還為時過早,但當我們開始考慮 2026 年時,您能否講解一下買入和賣出策略?您能否將明年的成長與今天早上提出的 2028 年目標進行比較?
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
Yes. So we normally provide an update to '26 when we report the end of the year number. So we would not be prepared to speak -- talk in detail about it right now. We wanted to really focus more on kind of finishing the year and give the market a glimpse of our expectations to the mid-term with the 2028 target so that help investors unpack all our strategies and the new equity story of Brightstar.
是的。因此,我們通常會在公佈年終資料時提供 '26 的更新資料。所以我們現在還不方便詳細討論這件事。我們希望更專注於完成今年的工作,並讓市場了解我們對中期目標(2028 年目標)的預期,以便幫助投資者了解我們所有的策略以及 Brightstar 的新股權故事。
But again, the good news is that in the short term, our core business have accelerated. Italy is running above trend with a particularly nice Q3 performance normalized for the calendar at plus 5%. The US is recovering. The core business in the US is recovering significantly. And when everything is set and done and you take the nine months year-to-date, the jackpot is down just above 10% year on year.
但好消息是,短期內我們的核心業務已經加速成長。義大利第三季表現特別出色,以日曆年計算,增幅達 5%,高於平均。美國正在復甦。美國核心業務正在顯著復甦。當一切塵埃落定,將今年前九個月的數據來看,獎金池年減了略高於 10%。
So you need a lot to really bring the performance back in line versus more historical averages. So obviously, the $1.8 billion jackpot in September was an outlier. But if there is a decent run in the fourth quarter, we may end up in a decent territory. And really, that leaves everything on the performance of the LMA, which is really bound by the fiscal lottery year, which ends mid of our calendar year in June, July.
所以,你需要做很多工作才能真正使業績恢復到與歷史平均值相符的水平。顯然,9 月那筆 18 億美元的巨額獎金是個例外。但如果第四節能打出一波不錯的攻勢,我們最終可能會取得不錯的成績。實際上,一切都取決於 LMA 的表現,而 LMA 的表現又受到財政年度的限制,財政年度在我們日曆年的中期,也就是 6 月或 7 月結束。
So unfortunately, from once in a while, it happens that we got hit by consecutive quarters of no jackpots, and that is reflected in the LMA. But again, when you go back 15, 20 years history of this business, that is quickly recovered. And again, hopefully, this is going to be the same between the second part of '25 and the first part of '26. Again, if the jackpot performance just continue to go along the way as it has historically done.
所以很不幸,偶爾我們會遇到連續幾季沒有中獎的情況,這反映在 LMA 中。但是,回顧這家企業過去 15 到 20 年的歷史,這種情況很快就能得到改善。希望 2025 年下半年和 2026 年上半年也能如此。再說一遍,如果獎金池的表現繼續像以往那樣發展的話。
And the other good news for '26 for now that we are obviously sharing with the market is that we continue to accelerate our OPtiMa efforts. We have accelerated the execution of the first part. We actually brought already home $30 million of savings through 2025. So there is an incremental, if you want $50 million to be done between '26 and '28 to get to the total of $80 million that we just announced today. Other than that, I would defer to the conversation when we report at the end of the year numbers.
另一個關於 2026 年的好消息是,我們將繼續加快 OPtiMa 的實施,這一點我們當然要與市場分享。我們加快了第一部分的執行速度。到 2025 年,我們已經節省了 3000 萬美元。所以,如果你想在 2026 年至 2028 年間完成 5000 萬美元,以達到我們今天宣布的 8000 萬美元的總額,那麼就需要逐步完成。除此之外,我會把這個問題留給我們在年底公佈數據時再討論。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
Chad Beynon, Macquarie.
Chad Beynon,麥格理集團。
Chad Beynon - Analyst
Chad Beynon - Analyst
Vincent, Max, thanks for all the medium-term commentary and firming up the story that was helpful. Max, just revisiting a little bit what you were kind of touching on there, but I want to focus on Q4 and the decision to reaffirm the outlook. So I know that you have tough comparables, particularly in Italy from a year over year basis.
Vincent、Max,感謝你們提供的中期評論和對故事的完善,這很有幫助。Max,我只是想稍微回顧一下你剛才提到的內容,但我想專注於第四季度以及重申業績展望的決定。我知道你們面臨嚴峻的比較情勢,尤其是在義大利,從年比數據來看更是如此。
But it looks like maybe Q3 came in a little bit better than expected from a same-store basis. That's kind of continued here. Can you maybe -- and then I did want to touch on was the UK amount that you noted of $14 million, is that -- was that in the original guidance? But I just want to ask about anything else that might be coming in below expectations? Or was this just an opportunity to maintain hopefully some conservatism given the uncertainty with the consumer?
但從同店銷售來看,第三季似乎比預期略好。這裡的情況也差不多如此。您能否——然後我想談談您提到的英國金額 1400 萬美元,那是——那是最初的指導方針嗎?但我還想問一下,還有哪些方面可能低於預期?或者,這只是在消費者情緒不明朗的情況下,保持一定保守姿態的機會?
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
Massimiliano Chiara - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Executive Director
Yes, so this is definitely an interesting juncture of the year because with this phenomenal Q3 performance we have kind of a bit reestablished the pace that we lost in the first half because of the LMA jackpot negative combination. So again, when we unpack Q4, it's important to recognize that there are two negative impacts in the top line. One is the UK and the second is the increased revenue amortization coming from the larger upfront fee that we are going to deliver to ADM in Italy.
是的,這絕對是今年一個有趣的轉折點,因為憑藉第三季度的出色表現,我們在某種程度上重新建立了上半年因 LMA 大獎負面組合而失去的步伐。所以,當我們分析第四季時,需要注意的是,營收方面有兩個負面影響。一是英國,二是我們將向義大利 ADM 支付的較大預付款帶來的收入攤銷增加。
December 1 is the first date of the -- under the new concession. So we will have to book a month on the new rate. So when you take those two items out, which probably together makes about $30 million, you can expect definitely a pretty interesting performance on the top line even compared to last year. We expect the product sales business to be kind of more or less in line with last year for the fourth quarter, which will definitely a decent performance. And then we continue to anticipate G&A to come lower in Q4.
12月1日是新特許權生效後的第一天。所以我們需要以新價格預訂一個月。所以,如果把這兩項(加起來大概能帶來 3,000 萬美元的收入)剔除出去,即使與去年相比,今年的總收入表現也肯定會相當不錯。我們預計第四季度產品銷售業務將與去年同期基本持平,這絕對會是一個不錯的業績。然後我們繼續預期第四季一般及行政費用將有所下降。
So overall, we think we have the ingredients to deliver a great quarter again. Obviously, it didn't make sense to go into the nitty gritty details of the number to -- and change it by a few million dollars. So we are reiterating the $1.1 billion EBITDA. We may end up exactly at that number. We may end up a little bit better. So we'll see at the end of the day, but we are facing a couple of headwinds on the top line. We continue to see progress in our core business, and we continue to deliver savings in our operational structure. So overall, we are optimistic that we can deliver good quarters.
總的來說,我們認為我們具備再次取得優異季度業績的條件。顯然,深入研究數字的細節,然後將其更改幾百萬美元,是沒有意義的。因此,我們重申 EBITDA 為 11 億美元。我們最終的結果可能正好是這個數字。我們最終可能會好一些。所以最終結果如何,我們拭目以待,但我們在業績方面確實面臨一些不利因素。我們在核心業務方面持續取得進展,並在營運結構方面持續實現成本節約。所以總的來說,我們對能夠取得良好的季度業績持樂觀態度。
Chad Beynon - Analyst
Chad Beynon - Analyst
Great. I appreciate that, Max. And then, Vince, on your medium-term outlook when you outlined the growth, I know one of the things that you talked about with share expansion outside of US and Italy, which I believe is about 12% according to the slide deck. Can you just talk about when a lot of these opportunities could come to your table? Is there a rolling cadence of new bids that are coming up or is this more on the print side? Any more commentary? I know you're not giving '26 guidance, but just trying to figure out when some of these opportunities will arise.
偉大的。謝謝你,馬克斯。然後,Vince,關於你概述成長的中期展望,我知道你談到的其中一點是在美國和義大利以外的地區擴大市場份額,根據幻燈片顯示,我相信這大約是 12%。您能否談談這些機會何時會向您出現?是否有持續不斷的新投標即將推出,還是更多以印刷形式呈現?還有其他評論嗎?我知道你不是在給 2026 年的指導,只是想弄清楚這些機會什麼時候會出現。
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yeah. I would say on the share gains for our core business, those things are -- will take several years, either to when or like let's take the case of San Paolo Brazil, for example. If we decide to move ahead on that award, which we've partnered up with Scientific Games on that, we begin to execute that in 2026, but you won't see really cash flow and profitability until beyond 2026.
是的。我認為,就我們核心業務的份額成長而言,這些事情需要幾年時間才能實現,例如,以巴西聖保羅為例。如果我們決定推進這項與 Scientific Games 合作的獎項,我們將在 2026 年開始執行,但要到 2026 年以後,你才能真正看到現金流和獲利能力。
So it's just the nature of these things, especially when you're effectively establishing a lottery in a new -- in a greenfield market, which is an incredibly exciting opportunity. However, it takes some time. So I would say the things that we talked about from market expansion especially thinking about the near term 2026 are related to print and product sales.
所以,這就是這類事情的本質,尤其是當你在一個全新的市場——一個綠地市場——有效地建立彩票時,這是一個令人無比興奮的機會。但是,這需要一些時間。所以我認為,我們討論的市場擴張問題,特別是考慮到2026年這個近期目標,都與印刷和產品銷售有關。
Operator
Operator
And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the conference back over to Vince Sadusky for closing comments.
我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把會議交還給文斯·薩杜斯基,請他作總結發言。
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Vincent Sadusky - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you all for your attention. Just to recap, we believe that Brightstar enjoys global leadership in a growing industry, and we think we have returned to a singular focus on lottery really marks an exciting new chapter. It improves our ability to continue, to innovate and execute, drive the acceleration in organic revenue growth and increased shareholder returns that we expect over the next three years.
謝謝大家的關注。總結一下,我們相信 Brightstar 在不斷發展的行業中享有全球領先地位,我們認為重新專注於彩票業務標誌著一個令人興奮的新篇章。它提高了我們持續創新和執行的能力,推動了未來三年內有機收入成長加速和股東回報增加的預期。
And of course, we believe our current valuation provides a complaint entry point for growing a durable business with a long-standing leadership position as we execute on strategies to continue, to create significant shareholder value. Thank you.
當然,我們相信,我們目前的估值為發展一家具有長期領先地位的永續發展企業提供了一個合適的切入點,我們將執行各項策略,繼續為股東創造重大價值。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,您現在可以斷開連接了。