Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Dutch Bros in fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. This conference call and webcast is being recorded today, February 12, 2025 at 5:00 PM Eastern time and is available for replay shortly after the call is concluded. (Operator Instructions)

    感謝您的支持,歡迎參加 Dutch Bros 2024 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。本次電話會議和網路直播於今天(2025 年 2 月 12 日)東部時間下午 5:00 錄製,通話結束後不久即可重播。(操作員指令)

  • And I to turn the conference over to Paddy Warren, Dutch Bros' Senior Director, Investor Relations and Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

    現在我將會議交給 Dutch Bros 投資者關係和資本市場高級總監 Paddy Warren。請繼續。

  • Paddy Warren - Senior Director, Investor Relations and Capital Markets

    Paddy Warren - Senior Director, Investor Relations and Capital Markets

  • Good afternoon and welcome. I'm joined by Christine Barone, CEO and President; and Josh Guenser, CFO. We issued our earnings press release for the quarter and year end of December 31, 2024 after the market closed today. The earnings press release, along with a supplemental information deck, had been posted to our Investor Relations website at investors.dutchbros.com.

    下午好,歡迎大家的光臨。與我一起參加的是執行長兼總裁 Christine Barone;以及財務長 Josh Guenser。我們在今天市場收盤後發布了截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的季度和年度收益新聞稿。收益新聞稿連同補充資訊已發佈至我們的投資者關係網站 investors.dutchbros.com。

  • Please be aware that all statements in our prepared remarks and and response to your questions, other than those of historical fact, are forward-looking statements and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that may cause actual results to differ materially. They are qualified by the cautionary statements in our earnings press release and the risk factors in our latest SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

    請注意,我們準備好的評論和對您的問題的回答中的所有陳述(歷史事實除外)均為前瞻性陳述,並且受風險、不確定性和假設的影響,這些風險、不確定性和假設可能會導致實際結果大不相同。它們符合我們收益新聞稿中的警示聲明和我們最新的 SEC 文件中的風險因素,包括我們最近的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • We also referenced non-GAAP financial measures on today's call. As a reminder, non-GAAP measures are neither substitutes for nor superior to measures that are prepared under GAAP. Please review the reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP results in our earnings press release.

    我們也在今天的電話會議上參考了非公認會計準則財務指標。提醒一下,非 GAAP 指標既不能替代也不優於根據 GAAP 編制的指標。請查看我們收益新聞稿中非 GAAP 指標與可比較 GAAP 結果的對帳。

  • As a reminder, we will be hosting our inaugural Investor Day on March 27, 2025 in the Phoenix, Arizona market. During this event, our leadership team plans to discuss our competitive differentiators and growth plans. We also anticipate providing updates to our long-term financial plan.

    提醒一下,我們將於 2025 年 3 月 27 日在亞利桑那州鳳凰城市場舉辦首屆投資者日。在此次活動期間,我們的領導團隊計劃討論我們的競爭優勢和成長計劃。我們也期待對我們的長期財務計劃提供更新。

  • On today's call, we plan to discuss our performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 and provide guidance on on certain key metrics for 2025. Following our prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. We would ask that questions please be focused on these topics, as we plan to cover longer time horizon topics next month at our Investor Day.

    在今天的電話會議上,我們計劃討論 2024 年第四季的業績,並對 2025 年的某些關鍵指標提供指導。在我們準備好的發言之後,將有一個問答環節。我們希望問題集中在這些主題上,因為我們計劃在下個月的投資者日討論更長遠的主題。

  • With that, I would like to now turn over the call to Christine.

    說完這些,我現在想把電話轉給克莉絲汀。

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Paddy. Good afternoon, everyone. Dutch Bros' future has never looked brighter, and we saw that represented in our 2024 results.

    謝謝你,帕迪。大家下午好。Dutch Bros 的未來從未如此光明,我們在 2024 年的業績中看到了這一點。

  • Revenue growth in 2024 was outstanding. We delivered 33% total revenue growth, driven by a healthy balance of 18% new shop growth with 151 new shop openings and 5.3% system same-shop sales growth in the year.

    2024 年的營收成長非常出色。我們實現了 33% 的總收入成長,這得益於新店成長 18%(全年新開 151 家店)和系統同店銷售額成長 5.3% 的健康平衡。

  • New shop performance is strong and improved considerably throughout the year. We entered 2025 with heightened confidence in the size of the brand's white space and the ability of our development and operations teams to execute upon it.

    新店業績表現強勁,全年業績大幅提升。進入 2025 年,我們對品牌空白空間的規模以及我們的開發和營運團隊的執行能力更有信心。

  • Adjusted EBITDA grew 44% in 2024, driven by strength in our four-wall P&L and continued adjusted SG&A leverage. We have made and will continue to make the investments in people and capabilities which we believe only compounds our competitive advantage.

    2024 年調整後 EBITDA 成長了 44%,這得益於我們的四面牆損益表的強勁成長以及持續調整的銷售、一般和行政管理槓桿。我們已經並將繼續對人才和能力進行投資,我們相信這只會增強我們的競爭優勢。

  • I am incredibly excited about the strength of our brand, the love from our customers, and our clear path forward. As we survey the industry landscape, we believe Dutch Bros is uniquely positioned and on trend with an emphasis on iced beverages, personalization, and speed.

    我對我們品牌的實力、客戶的喜愛以及我們明確的前進道路感到無比興奮。透過調查產業格局,我們認為 Dutch Bros 具有獨特的優勢,並且緊跟潮流,注重冰鎮飲料、個人化和速度。

  • We see an increasing relevance of the customized energy occasion which has been core to our menu for over a decade. We also see the continued importance of genuine connection embodied by our Broistas and a cornerstone of Dutch Bros for the last 33 years.

    我們看到了定制能量場合的日益重要性,十多年來它一直是我們菜單的核心。我們也看到了 Broistas 所體現的真誠聯繫的持續重要性以及過去 33 年 Dutch Bros 的基石。

  • Zooming into Q4, we saw substantial momentum across the board. Our brand is resonating with customers. In Q4, we saw 6.9% same-shop sales growth, as well as our largest quarterly transaction growth since 2022. Company-operated same-shop sales grew 9.5%. We experienced our first full quarter of mobile order and are beginning to see the benefits to our business.

    放眼第四季度,我們看到各方面都出現了強勁的發展勢頭。我們的品牌引起了顧客的共鳴。第四季度,我們的同店銷售額成長了 6.9%,同時也創下了 2022 年以來最大的季度交易量成長。公司自營同店銷售額成長9.5%。我們經歷了行動訂單的第一個完整季度,並開始看到其為我們業務帶來的好處。

  • In Q4 we returned our holiday favorite LTOs, hazelnut truffle mocha and candy cane mocha, offering our customers a spirited way of staying engaged during the holiday season. We saw the highest performance ever of our candy cane mocha platform, where we sold almost 40% more total units than when we ran it last year.

    在第四季度,我們恢復了節日最受歡迎的 LTO、榛果鬆露摩卡和拐杖糖摩卡,為我們的客戶提供了一種在節日期間保持活躍的充滿活力的方式。我們的拐杖糖摩卡平台表現出色,總銷量比去年同期成長了近 40%。

  • Our enhanced marketing efforts continue to build brand awareness and gain traction, and we are seeing great engagement and response in our Dutch rewards program. Our real estate strategy is working. Once again, we saw strong new shop productivity as we have shifted our development focus and elevated our site selection process. And we continue to demonstrate remarkable consistency in our shop opening cadence with 32 new shops in the quarter.

    我們加強的行銷力度持續提升品牌知名度並獲得關注,我們看到荷蘭獎勵計劃的參與度和反應十分積極。我們的房地產策略正在發揮作用。由於我們轉移了開發重點並提升了選址流程,我們再次看到了新車間強勁的生產力。我們繼續表現出出色的一致性,本季開設了 32 家新店。

  • Our pipeline for 2025 is strong. Our efforts are translating to outstanding financial results. In the quarter, we drove a 35% revenue increase and a 41% adjusted EBITDA increase compared to the same quarter last year. System-wide AUVs were $2 million, in line with the record we posted earlier this year.

    我們的 2025 年規劃非常強大。我們的努力正在轉化為出色的財務表現。本季度,與去年同期相比,我們的營收成長了 35%,調整後 EBITDA 成長了 41%。整個系統的 AUV 為 200 萬美元,與我們今年稍早發布的記錄一致。

  • This month, we are celebrating a major milestone as we open our 1,000th shop. We are extremely proud of our results, and I would like to take a moment to sincerely thank our entire team. Our Broista teams wake up early and stay up late to make a massive difference one cup at a time. And our 2024 results are a reflection of this effort during each shift in each interaction every day.

    本月,我們將慶祝一個重要的里程碑:開設第 1,000 家門市。我們對我們的成績感到非常自豪,我想花點時間真誠地感謝我們整個團隊。我們的 Broista 團隊早起晚睡,每次喝一杯咖啡,就能帶來巨大的改變。我們 2024 年的成果正是每天在每次輪班、每次互動中所付出的努力的體現。

  • I'd now like to spend some time walking through our key growth drivers, beginning with how we grow our people and scale our culture. Our people are the cornerstone of our strength. Our talented Broistas and the service they provide drive our growth and separate us from competitors.

    現在,我想花一些時間介紹我們的主要成長動力,首先是我們如何培養人才和擴大我們的文化。我們的人民是我們力量的基石。我們才華橫溢的 Broistas 和他們提供的服務推動了我們的成長,並使我們與競爭對手區分開來。

  • One of the reasons we have chosen to grow primarily through a company-operated model is because we believe it enables us to scale our culture as we enter new markets. We make big investments in seeding our culture as we expand, and we are pleased with how this is translating into strong service.

    我們選擇主要透過公司營運模式來發展的原因之一是,我們相信它能夠讓我們在進入新市場時擴大我們的文化。我們在擴張的過程中投入了大量資金來培養我們的文化,我們很高興看到這些投資轉化為強大的服務。

  • Our people pipeline includes more than 450 regional operator candidates, with an average tenure of more than seven years. For context, we had approximately 200 operator candidates in our pipeline at the end of 2021.

    我們的人才儲備包括 450 多名區域營運商候選人,平均任期超過七年。就背景而言,截至 2021 年底,我們的人才庫中有大約 200 名操作員候選人。

  • It is important to note that in addition to almost doubling our shop count during this period, we also significantly expanded our operator candidate pipeline. We are able to attract, train, and retain great people and continue to build a strong foundation for growth for many years into the future. This approach also enables us to create compelling futures, providing opportunities for Broistas to grow with us.

    值得注意的是,除了在此期間我們的店鋪數量幾乎翻了一番之外,我們還顯著擴大了我們的操作員候選人管道。我們能夠吸引、培訓和留住優秀人才,並為未來多年的發展奠定堅實的基礎。這種方法也使我們能夠創造引人注目的未來,為 Broistas 提供與我們共同成長的機會。

  • In 2024, our overall shop level turnover improved approximately 5 percentage points points year over year. We are honored to be an employer of choice and blown away by the excitement of applicants seeking to join us as Broistas.

    2024年,我們的整體店鋪營業額年增約5個百分點。我們很榮幸成為首選雇主,並且對申請者希望加入我們成為 Broistas 的興奮之情感到震驚。

  • In December, we have the opportunity to reinforce our culture by hosting our shop leadership at an event we called A Better World. Almost 3,000 of our field leaders, franchisees, and headquarters team were able to attend and experience this catalytic cultural event, many for the first time. The energy was electric and the team left with a renewed sense of purpose and clarity of mission.

    12 月份,我們有機會透過組織商店領導參加一場名為「更美好的世界」的活動來強化我們的文化。我們近 3,000 名現場領導、特許經營商和總部團隊能夠參加並體驗這項具有催化作用的文化活動,其中許多人都是第一次參加。氣氛非常活躍,團隊帶著全新的目標感和清晰的使命感離開。

  • In-mid December, Venki Krishnababu joined us as our Chief Technology and Information Officer. Previously, Venki served as Chief Technology Officer at Lululemon Athletica and brings nearly 30 years of experience leading transformational, enterprise-shaping strategies and a proven track record of creating business value through technology, innovation, and partnerships.

    12 月中旬,Venki Krishnababu 加入我們,擔任首席技術和資訊長。在此之前,Venki 曾擔任 Lululemon Athletica 的首席技術官,擁有近 30 年領導轉型、企業塑造策略的經驗,以及透過技術、創新和合作創造商業價值的成功經驗。

  • I'll now shift to how we are growing our shop base and capturing our white space. We are executing our real estate strategy and are very energized by the results. New shop productivity continued to increase in Q4, which we believe was a result of enhanced market planning as well as elevated paid ad spending in new markets. Once again, we delivered our shop development target in Q4, with 32 new shop openings, bringing total shop count to 982.

    我現在將談談我們如何擴大我們的店鋪基礎並佔領我們的空白空間。我們正在執行我們的房地產策略,並對結果感到非常振奮。第四季新店生產力持續成長,我們認為這是由於市場規劃加強以及新市場付費廣告支出增加所致。我們在第四季再次實現了店鋪發展目標,開設了 32 家新店,店鋪總數達到 982 家。

  • For the year 2024, we opened 151 new shops, of which 128 are company operated. We have a strong 2025 pipeline. In the second half of 2024, we made investments in our development, construction, and market planning teams and continued elevating our site selection process. These investments, combined with our extensive white space and strong four-wall model, elevate our confidence in our pipeline in 2025 and position us to accelerate quarterly unit growth in the back half of this year.

    到 2024 年,我們將開設 151 家新店,其中 128 家由公司經營。我們擁有強大的 2025 管道。2024 年下半年,我們對開發、建置和市場規劃團隊進行了投資,並持續提升我們的選址流程。這些投資,加上我們廣泛的白色空間和強大的四面牆模型,提升了我們對 2025 年產品線的信心,並使我們能夠在今年下半年加速季度單位成長。

  • Now I'd like to discuss our efforts to grow transactions and develop sales layers. Early in 2024, we outlined a transaction driving strategy focused on three foundational initiatives that we plan to use to jumpstart transaction growth: enhanced focus on innovation, increased paid advertising designed to build brand awareness, and more targeted rewards program efforts. We are executing on all these elements and we are seeing success.

    現在我想討論一下我們增加交易和發展銷售層的努力。2024 年初,我們概述了一項交易驅動策略,重點關註三項基礎舉措,我們計劃透過這些舉措來推動交易成長:加強對創新的關注、增加旨在提升品牌知名度的付費廣告,以及更有針對性的獎勵計劃。我們正在執行所有這些要素,並且看到了成功。

  • Transaction growth accelerated as we exited the year, reaching 2.3% for the system in Q4.

    隨著年底的臨近,交易量成長加速,第四季系統交易量成長達到 2.3%。

  • Our efforts are working, and we believe we have considerable runway for further growth. Here is a brief update on the three foundational traffic driving initiatives.

    我們的努力正在取得成效,我們相信我們還有相當大的進一步成長的空間。以下是關於三個基礎流量驅動舉措的簡要更新。

  • First, innovation. In the competitive beverage industry, we believe staying ahead of trends is critical. We utilize innovation to build sales layers and deepen our competitive moat through category-defining products. In the quarter, we return the successful LTO offerings, candy cane and hazelnut truffle mocha, and added jingle nog and winter shimmer rebel as seasonal offerings.

    第一,創新。在競爭激烈的飲料產業,我們認為保持領先地位至關重要。我們利用創新來建立銷售層,並透過定義類別的產品來加深我們的競爭護城河。在本季度,我們恢復了成功的 LTO 產品、拐杖糖和榛果鬆露摩卡,並添加了鈴鐺蛋黃酒和冬季閃光叛逆者作為季節性產品。

  • Furthermore, we continued our strategy of utilizing promotional innovation to surprise and delight our customers with giveaways like the Passenger Princess straw topper and our custom holiday ornament. These were huge hits that drove both excitement and sales volume. We love doing these innovative promotions as it strengthens our brand loyalty and creates extra moments of connection with our customers.

    此外,我們繼續實施促銷創新策略,透過贈送諸如乘客公主吸管裝飾物和我們定制的節日裝飾品等贈品給顧客帶來驚喜。這些都是巨大的成功,既激發了人們的興趣,也增加了銷售量。我們喜歡做這些創新的促銷活動,因為它可以增強我們的品牌忠誠度並與我們的客戶建立額外的聯繫。

  • Second, paid advertising. It is becoming increasingly clear that our upsized paid advertising investments are having a positive impact on our business. We saw an opportunity to raise brand awareness in new markets, and we began increasing our digital ad spend.

    第二,付費廣告。越來越明顯的是,我們增加的付費廣告投資對我們的業務產生了積極的影響。我們看到了在新市場提升品牌知名度的機會,並開始增加數位廣告支出。

  • Those efforts have been successful. We have seen considerable improvements to both brand awareness and traffic. During the second half of 2024, we expanded this program to build greater awareness and mature markets. We are encouraged by what we are observing in these markets as well.

    這些努力已經成功。我們看到品牌知名度和流量都有了顯著的提升。2024 年下半年,我們擴大了該計劃,以提高知名度和成熟的市場。這些市場的觀察也令我們感到鼓舞。

  • And third, Dutch rewards. We continue to see exceptional traction in the Dutch rewards program, with a record 71% of transactions coming from Dutch rewards members. This is an increase of over 500 basis points year over year.

    第三,荷蘭獎勵。我們繼續看到荷蘭獎勵計劃的非凡吸引力,創紀錄的 71% 的交易來自荷蘭獎勵會員。這比去年同期增加了 500 多個基點。

  • In the back half of 2024, we accelerated our segmentation efforts which we believe will enable us to reach customers more efficiently and provide even more personalized and relevant offers. While we are still in the early innings, the responses we have seen to date and the opportunity we see in front of us are encouraging.

    2024 年下半年,我們加快了細分工作,我們相信這將使我們能夠更有效地接觸客戶並提供更個人化和相關的服務。雖然我們仍處於早期階段,但我們迄今看到的反響和擺在我們面前的機會是令人鼓舞的。

  • Beyond these three foundational transaction drivers, we see a clear path forward with multi-year initiatives that layer on top of this foundation, including food and mobile order.

    除了這三個基礎交易驅動因素之外,我們還看到了一條清晰的前進道路,即在此基礎上開展的多年期計劃,包括食品和行動訂購。

  • We continue to be excited about mobile order, and here are a few program updates. As of December 31, approximately 96% system and 99% company-operated shops have mobile order functionality. Our customers are enthusiastically embracing the mobile order occasion.

    我們繼續對行動訂單感到興奮,這裡是一些程式更新。截至 12 月 31 日,約 96% 的系統商店和 99% 的公司自營商店都具備行動訂購功能。我們的客戶熱情地擁抱行動訂購的時代。

  • As of December 31, our rewards customers have placed approximately 5.4 million mobile order transactions. Mobile order continues to overindex in the relative rush of the morning, and in particular with coffee-based beverages. This gives us confidence that we are on the right track with our strategy to further unlock the morning daypart with greater convenience.

    截至 12 月 31 日,我們的獎勵客戶已完成約 540 萬筆行動訂單交易。在早上相對繁忙的時段,行動訂單繼續超量,尤其是咖啡類飲料。這讓我們有信心,我們的策略是正確的,可以進一步為早晨時段提供更大的便利。

  • And finally, we believe mobile order contributed to the traffic outperformance we experienced in Q4. As of December 31, approximately 8% of our channel mix was mobile order, representing a steady and deliberate increase quarter over quarter. We continue to observe that customers who use mobile order increase their frequency and mobile order penetration is more than twice the level of our overall system and some of our newer markets.

    最後,我們認為行動訂單為我們第四季的流量表現做出了貢獻。截至 12 月 31 日,我們的通路組合中約有 8% 來自行動訂單,季增穩定。我們持續觀察到,使用行動訂單的客戶增加了他們的訂單頻率,行動訂單的滲透率是我們整體系統和一些較新市場的兩倍以上。

  • We believe that by placing the convenience of the digitized menu in the hands of our customers will bode well for us in newer markets as it allows customers to explore and learn our brand.

    我們相信,將數位化菜單的便利性交到顧客手中,將有利於我們在新市場中取得良好的發展,因為它可以讓顧客探索和了解我們的品牌。

  • Last quarter, we announced that we began a limited food test. This initial test has been focused on understanding the optimal assortment and how an expanded food program interacts with our existing operations. Although the test is small, initial signs are encouraging and point towards the viability of an expanded program.

    上個季度,我們宣布開始限量食品測試。本次初步測試的重點是了解最佳產品組合以及擴大的食品計劃如何與我們現有的營運互動。儘管測試規模較小,但初步跡象令人鼓舞,顯示擴大該計劃是可行的。

  • As we consider a food program, I'd like to share our guardrails. First, Broista job satisfaction. As we expand their roles, we must consider how to do so in ways that continue to foster a fun and energetic work experience that assures we continue to attract and retain the very best people.

    當我們考慮一項食品計劃時,我想分享我們的護欄。首先,Broista 的工作滿意度。隨著我們擴大他們的職責,我們必須考慮如何繼續培養有趣且充滿活力的工作體驗,以確保我們繼續吸引和留住最優秀的人才。

  • Second, a targeted assortment focused on capturing the food attached opportunity and a potential incremental beverage opportunity while minimizing complexity.

    其次,有針對性的商品組合著重於抓住食品附加機會和潛在的增量飲料機會,同時最大限度地降低複雜性。

  • Third, no impact to throughput. We believe we have an opportunity to expand market share in the morning daypart. We understand that many people seek the added convenience of a food pairing with their morning beverage choice. Food makes up less than 2% of our total sales, and we are likely missing morning beverage transactions from would-be customers who are not satisfied with our current food offerings.

    第三,對吞吐量沒有影響。我們相信我們有機會擴大早晨時段的市場份額。我們了解,許多人尋求在早晨選擇飲料時搭配更多食物以帶來更多便利。食品占我們總銷售額的不到 2%,而且我們可能會錯過那些對我們當前食品供應不滿意的潛在客戶的早餐飲料交易。

  • With the expansion of our food program, we are targeting these incremental beverage occasions and aim to compete more aggressively for these high-value routinized occasions with a limited food offering that fulfills our customers' needs.

    隨著我們食品計劃的擴大,我們將目標鎖定這些飲料供應不斷增加的場合,旨在透過提供有限的食品來更積極地競爭這些高價值的常規場合,以滿足顧客的需求。

  • In closing, we are incredibly well positioned with a great brand and wonderful people. Momentum in the business is strong. We believe our runway is long and our path forward is clear. We have top-tier growth.

    最後,我們憑藉著優秀的品牌和優秀的人才,佔據了極為有利的地位。業務發展勢頭強勁。我們相信,我們的跑道很長,前進的道路很清晰。我們擁有頂級的成長。

  • In Q4, we delivered 35% year over year revenue growth and 32 new shop openings. We have multi-year visibility on key initiatives, including our core foundation of innovation, paid media, and Dutch rewards, and exciting growth opportunities with mobile order and food.

    第四季度,我們的營收年增 35%,並開設了 32 家新店。我們對關鍵措施擁有多年的預見性,包括我們創新的核心基礎、付費媒體和荷蘭獎勵,以及行動訂購和食品帶來的令人興奮的成長機會。

  • Our real estate strategy is working, and we have seen another quarter of excellent new shop productivity. This, combined with our strong pipeline, gives us great confidence as we execute our unique growth plans.

    我們的房地產策略正在發揮作用,我們又看到一個季度的新店鋪生產力表現出色。這與我們強大的產品線相結合,使我們在執行獨特的成長計劃時充滿信心。

  • We have an incredibly strong brand that is resonating. I am blown away that as we reach the 1,000 shop milestone, we have customers in mile-long lines to experience those first smiles as we open our doors in new markets. Most importantly, we have great people, anchored by outstanding engaged Broistas and a strong pipeline of operators ready to grow with us.

    我們擁有一個引起共鳴的強大品牌。當我們達到 1,000 家門市的里程碑時,令我震驚的是,當我們在新市場開設門市時,顧客們排起了長達一英里的隊伍,只為體驗第一陣微笑。最重要的是,我們擁有優秀的員工,包括傑出的 Broistas 和一支強大的運營商隊伍,隨時準備與我們一起成長。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Josh.

    說完這些,我將把話題交給喬希 (Josh)。

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Christine. I will provide a quick recap of 2024 results and then a deeper dive into Q4 2024 performance.

    謝謝,克里斯汀。我將簡要回顧 2024 年的業績,然後深入探討 2024 年第四季的表現。

  • Our performance in 2024 continues to build confidence in achieving that long runway of growth that Christine noted in her comments. For the year, we generated $1.28 billion in revenue and $230 million in adjusted EBITDA.

    我們在 2024 年的表現繼續增強了我們對實現 Christine 在評論中提到的長期成長的信心。今年,我們的營收為 12.8 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 2.3 億美元。

  • We grew revenue by 33%, including 18% new shop growth on 151 new shop openings and 5.3% system same-shop sales growth. We delivered 70 basis points of leverage on adjusted SG&A. Our adjusted EBITDA growth was 44%, and our adjusted EBITDA margins expanded 140 basis points to 18%. For the year, we delivered $0.49 per share of adjusted EPS.

    我們的營收成長了 33%,其中新開店 151 家,成長 18%,系統同店銷售額成長 5.3%。我們提供了調整後的銷售、一般及行政開支的 70 個基點的槓桿。我們的調整後 EBITDA 成長率為 44%,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 140 個基點至 18%。今年,我們的調整後每股收益為 0.49 美元。

  • For the fourth quarter, revenue was $343 million, an increase of 35%, or $89 million over the fourth quarter of last year. In the quarter, we opened 32 new shops, of which 25 are company operated, representing focused and intentional progress. We remain encouraged by both our new shop productivity and our overall system AUVs of $2 million.

    第四季營收為 3.43 億美元,較去年同期成長 35%,即 8,900 萬美元。本季度,我們開設了 32 家新店,其中 25 家由公司經營,體現了專注和有目的的進展。我們仍然對新車間的生產力和 200 萬美元的整體系統 AUV 感到鼓舞。

  • Same-shop sales performance in Q4 exceeded expectations. In the quarter, we delivered 6.9% system same-shop sales growth, of which 2.3% came from transaction growth and 4.6% from ticket growth, driven by pricing and lower discounting. We attribute Q4 transaction growth through a variety of factors, including the maturation of newer markets driven by market planning and marketing efforts to drive brand awareness as well as the continued ramping of mobile order.

    第四季同店銷售業績超出預期。本季度,我們實現了 6.9% 的系統同店銷售成長,其中 2.3% 來自交易量成長,4.6% 來自票價成長,這得益於定價和較低的折扣。我們將第四季度交易量的成長歸因於多種因素,包括市場規劃和行銷努力推動的新興市場的成熟,從而提高了品牌知名度,以及行動訂單的持續成長。

  • In the quarter, adjusted EBITDA grew 41%. We delivered $49 million in adjusted EBITDA, an increase of $14 million year over year. Our adjusted EPS was $0.07 per share, up from $0.04 per share in Q4 last year.

    本季度,調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 41%。我們實現調整後 EBITDA 為 4,900 萬美元,較上年同期增加 1,400 萬美元。我們的調整後每股收益為 0.07 美元,高於去年第四季的每股 0.04 美元。

  • Moving on to our company-operated shops. Revenue was $314 million, an increase of 38% or $87 million over the fourth quarter of last year. Company-operated same-shop sales growth was 9.5%, of which 5.2% was transaction growth. Company-operated shop contribution was $91 million, an increase of 51% or $31 million year over year. In the quarter, company-operated shop contribution margin was an impressive 28.9%.

    接下來是我們的自營商店。營收為 3.14 億美元,較去年第四季成長 38%(即 8,700 萬美元)。自營同店銷售額成長9.5%,其中交易成長5.2%。公司自營店貢獻 9,100 萬美元,較上年同期增加 3,100 萬美元,成長 51%。本季,公司自營店貢獻利潤率高達28.9%。

  • In Q4, beverage, food, and packaging costs were 25.4% of company-operated shop revenue. This is 120 basis points favorable year over year, driven primarily by pricing.

    第四季度,飲料、食品和包裝成本占公司自營店收入的25.4%。這比去年同期高出 120 個基點,主要由定價推動。

  • Although coffee prices rose throughout 2024 and into 2025, we did not see a meaningful impact on our margins in 2024. As we look ahead, coffee seed prices have remained elevated for a sustained period, and we expect to see the impact in our cost of goods sold in 2025. If current coffee seed price levels are maintained, we would expect approximately 110 basis points of net COGS margin pressure in 2025 with the impacts beginning in Q1 and increasing in Q2.

    儘管咖啡價格在 2024 年至 2025 年期間上漲,但我們並未看到 2024 年利潤率受到重大影響。展望未來,咖啡種子價格將持續高企,我們預期這將對 2025 年的銷售成本產生影響。如果維持目前的咖啡種子價格水平,我們預計 2025 年淨 COGS 利潤率壓力將達到約 110 個基點,影響將從第一季開始,並在第二季度增加。

  • Labor costs were 27.1% of company-operated shop revenue and in line with Q4 of 2023. We anticipate making wage investments and shop leadership in 2025 which will offset the leverage we would otherwise expect on sales growth. Occupancy and other costs were 17.5% of company-operated shop revenue, which was 80 basis points favorable compared to Q4 2023, driven primarily by leverage from sales growth.

    勞動成本占公司自營店營收的 27.1%,與 2023 年第四季持平。我們預計在 2025 年進行薪資投資和商店領導力,這將抵消我們原本預期的銷售成長槓桿作用。入住率和其他成本占公司自營店收入的 17.5%,與 2023 年第四季相比高出 80 個基點,主要得益於銷售成長帶來的槓桿作用。

  • Adjusted SG&A was $64 million, or 18.8% of total revenue. For the full-year 2024, adjusted SG&A was 15.8%, representing approximately 70 basis points in margin leverage versus the full-year 2023. We are pleased by the leverage we have driven in adjusted SG&A during the year while we continue to staff our new office in Arizona and make targeted investments in marketing.

    調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用為 6,400 萬美元,佔總收入的 18.8%。2024 年全年調整後的銷售、一般及行政開支為 15.8%,與 2023 年全年相比,利潤率槓桿率上升約 70 個基點。我們很高興看到,我們在這一年中調整後的銷售、一般及行政開支中發揮了槓桿作用,同時我們繼續在亞利桑那州的新辦事處配備人員,並在營銷方面進行有針對性的投資。

  • In the quarter, interest expense net increased $709,000 from one year ago to $6.8 million. The increase is primarily driven by higher interest expense related to long-term debt, is partially offset by higher interest income.

    本季度,利息支出淨額較去年同期增加 709,000 美元,達到 680 萬美元。這一增長主要由於與長期債務相關的利息支出增加,但被利息收入增加部分抵消。

  • In 2024, our business demonstrated consistent and measured growth as evidenced by our balance sheet. Our Q4 results further underscores this momentum, reflecting our robust financial health and growing stability.

    2024年,我們的業務表現出持續、有節制的成長,這點從我們的資產負債表上可以看出來。我們的第四季業績進一步強調了這一勢頭,反映出我們強勁的財務狀況和日益增強的穩定性。

  • As of December 31, we had $293 million in cash and cash equivalents and $235 million in drawn term notes, yielding a net cash position of approximately $59 million. This is approximately $21 million higher than our net cash position for the year ended December 31, 2023, and the majority of this increase is attributable to working capital timing.

    截至 12 月 31 日,我們擁有 2.93 億美元的現金和現金等價物以及 2.35 億美元的已提取定期票據,淨現金狀況約為 5,900 萬美元。這比我們截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日止年度的淨現金狀況高出約 2,100 萬美元,而這一增幅大部分歸因於營運資本時機。

  • We remain highly encouraged by the substantial progress this represents towards our goal of having a self-funding business. We continue to shift the composition of our new shop pipeline towards more capital-efficient lease arrangements, but we still have work to do as we attempt to lower the per unit cash outlay.

    這代表著我們在實現自籌資金業務的目標方面取得了實質進展,我們對此感到非常鼓舞。我們將繼續調整新店舖的組成,使其更加重視資本效率的租賃安排,但我們仍需努力降低單位現金支出。

  • In Q4, our average CapEx per shop was approximately $1.8 million. As of December 31, we had $383 million in finance lease liabilities and $323 million of operating lease liabilities. During the quarter, we added $3 million in finance lease liabilities and $17 million in operating lease liabilities.

    第四季度,我們每家店的平均資本支出約為 180 萬美元。截至 12 月 31 日,我們的融資租賃負債為 3.83 億美元,營業租賃負債為 3.23 億美元。本季度,我們增加了 300 萬美元的融資租賃負債和 1,700 萬美元的營業租賃負債。

  • We have access to ample liquidity to fuel our growth. As of December 31, we had over $687 million in total liquidity, which we believe to be sufficient to support our growth plans. Earlier this month, we drew down an expiring $50 million delayed drop term loan to optimize flexibility, increasing both our cash and debt balance to maintain a consistent liquidity profile.

    我們有充足的流動性來推動我們的成長。截至 12 月 31 日,我們的總流動資金超過 6.87 億美元,我們相信足以支持我們的成長計畫。本月初,我們提取了一筆即將到期的 5000 萬美元延期定期貸款,以優化靈活性,增加我們的現金和債務餘額,以保持一致的流動性狀況。

  • Finally, I'd like to provide guidance for 2025. Total revenues are projected to be between $1.555 billion and $1.575 billion. This represents approximately 21% to 23% growth year over year. We expect to open at least 160 new shops, representing system growth of 16%. System same-shop sales growth is estimated to be in the range of 2% to 4% for the full year.

    最後,我想提供2025年的指導。預計總收入在 15.55 億美元至 15.75 億美元之間。這意味著同比增長約 21% 至 23%。我們預計將開設至少 160 家新店,這意味著系統成長 16%。預計全年系統同店銷售額成長在2%至4%之間。

  • As a reminder, Q1 represents our toughest same-shop sales comparison of the year as we lap the benefit of leap day and our successful bubble launch.

    提醒一下,由於我們享受閏日和成功推出泡沫的好處,第一季是我們今年最艱難的同店銷售對比。

  • Capital expenditures are estimated to be in the range of $240 million to $260 million, primarily made up of new shop construction costs. We estimate adjusted EBITDA to be between $265 million and $275 million, representing 15% to 20% growth year over year. At the midpoint of the range, we would expect 70 to 80 basis points of net adjusted EBITDA margin pressure, driven primarily by elevated coffee costs and partially offset by the benefit of approximately 80 basis points of adjusted SG&A leverage.

    資本支出預計在 2.4 億至 2.6 億美元之間,主要用於新店建設成本。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 在 2.65 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間,年增 15% 至 20%。在該範圍的中間點,我們預期淨調整後 EBITDA 利潤率壓力為 70 至 80 個基點,主要原因是咖啡成本上升,並被調整後銷售、一般及行政開支槓桿率約 80 個基點帶來的好處部分抵銷。

  • Thank you. And now we'll take your questions. Operator, please open the lines.

    謝謝。現在我們來回答你們的問題。接線員,請接通線路。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) David Tarantino, Baird.

    (操作員指示)大衛·塔倫蒂諾,貝爾德。

  • David Tarantino - Analyst

    David Tarantino - Analyst

  • Congratulations on such strong results. My question is about the company-operated comps. Can you maybe elaborate on why you think you saw such a big acceleration in the company locations? I know, Josh, I think you mentioned maturation of new units. And I'm wondering if there was a change in trajectory there.

    恭喜您取得如此優異的成績。我的問題是關於公司經營的股票。您能否詳細解釋為什麼您認為公司地點的擴張速度如此之快?我知道,喬希,我認為你提到了新單位的成熟。我想知道那裡的軌跡是否發生了變化。

  • But I guess, in general, are you seeing that being the biggest factor? Are you seeing mobile ordering maybe being a big factor? I guess how would you deconstruct this big acceleration you saw across the quarter?

    但我想,總的來說,您是否認為這是最重要的因素?您是否認為行動訂購可能是重要因素?我想您會如何解構本季所看到的這種大幅加速?

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, David, thanks so much for your question. I would start -- I really think it was actually everything firing on all cylinders as we went through the quarter. And I think it starts with just the strength of the brand, the amazing service that our people and our Broistas continue to provide.

    是的,大衛,非常感謝你的提問。首先,我真的認為,隨著我們度過這個季度,一切都在全速運轉。我認為這一切都始於品牌的實力,以及我們的員工和 Broistas 持續提供的優質服務。

  • And then on top of that, I think we saw really all of those things working together. So we saw that rewards program, a 500-basis-point increase versus the prior year. When we look at what was happening with rewards, we were seeing an acceleration in new shop adoption. So as new shops came online, really getting people into that rewards program quickly.

    最重要的是,我認為我們確實看到所有這些事物在協同運作。因此,我們看到獎勵計劃比前一年增加了 500 個基點。當我們觀察獎勵機制的進展時,我們發現新店採用獎勵機制的現象正在加速。因此,隨著新店上線,確實可以迅速吸引人們加入該獎勵計劃。

  • We also saw great results from our paid advertising especially in our newer markets. and seeing that what really drove part of that acceleration in comps in those newer shops. Shops like those Texas shops coming online really helped out. We also saw strength in mobile order. We continue to see the newer markets adoption of mobile order happened more quickly. And so that was another factor as we went through.

    我們的付費廣告也取得了巨大的成果,特別是在較新的市場。並了解了真正推動這些新店銷售加速成長的部分原因。像那些德克薩斯州的網上商店這樣的商店確實提供了幫助。我們也看到行動訂單的強烈成長。我們繼續看到新興市場對行動訂單的採用速度更快。這是我們討論的另一個因素。

  • So really a lot of things working well at the same time. We are super happy also with the innovation in the quarter. I think some of the merge drops that we did just really drove excitement for the brand. So when we look across the quarter, it's actually not just one thing, but we are actually quite happy to see everything kind of performing together with that real acceleration in the new shop performance.

    所以其實很多事情同時進展順利。我們對本季的創新也感到非常高興。我認為我們所做的一些合併確實激發了品牌的熱情。因此,當我們回顧整個季度時,實際上不只是一件事,我們實際上非常高興地看到所有事物都表現良好,並且新店業績也真正加速成長。

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, David, the thing I might add to that too is just we did see really strong traffic performance with the result of that. With strong profit performance, we were actually able to dial back some of our discount position as well, and that allowed us to have some strong ticket flow through. So we really saw it hitting across the board on all fronts.

    是的,大衛,我還要補充一點,我們確實看到了由此帶來的非常強勁的流量表現。憑藉強勁的利潤表現,我們實際上也能夠削減部分折扣,這也讓我們獲得了強勁的票務流量。因此,我們確實看到它對各方面都產生了全面影響。

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I think the final factor I would add is we also saw strength in the morning. So as we rolled out mobile order, the expectation was that that would really benefit the morning a bit more, and we saw that in the numbers.

    是的,我想我要補充的最後一個因素是,我們早上也看到了力量。因此,當我們推出行動訂餐服務時,我們期望這能為早晨訂餐帶來更多益處,而且我們在數據中也看到了這一點。

  • David Tarantino - Analyst

    David Tarantino - Analyst

  • Great. And if I could just ask a follow-up. I think you mentioned that the exit rate, or maybe you made a comment that suggests the exit rate for the quarter might have been much stronger than where you started, certainly seems evident in the results. Did that sort of strength carry over into Q1? I guess is there any context you want to give us about the first quarter and how you expect that to play out?

    偉大的。我是否可以問一個後續問題。我覺得您提到了退出率,或者您可能發表過評論說本季的退出率可能比開始時高得多,這在結果中似乎很明顯。這種實力是否延續到了第一季?我想您能否向我們介紹第一季的情況以及您對其未來發展的預期?

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So I would say we saw strength throughout the quarter. And as far as Q1 goes, we have seen strength in January as well. So we're very pleased with how we're starting the year.

    是的。所以我想說,我們在整個季度都看到了強勁勢頭。就第一季而言,我們在 1 月也看到了強勁成長。我們對今年的開局感到非常滿意。

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. And David, maybe just to put a little bit more specificity as we think about 2025. Our overall comp guide for the year reflects the fact that we're rolling off about 3 points of net pricing. So the net price roll off for the year would be about 3 points.

    是的。戴維,當我們思考 2025 年時,也許我們可以更具體一點。我們今年的整體競爭指南反映了這樣一個事實,即我們的淨價格正在下降約 3 個點。因此,全年淨價格下降幅度約為 3 個百分點。

  • And then we are lapping a 10 points of comp from Q1 of 2024. And despite that, given what we've seen so far, we feel confident about the trajectory we're on. That full-year guide of 2% to 4% contemplates about a 2% to 4% comp performance as well in Q1 and feel really good about that given what we're lapping from last year.

    然後,我們將從 2024 年第一季開始獲得 10 個積分。儘管如此,從目前的情況來看,我們對目前的發展軌跡充滿信心。全年 2% 至 4% 的預期也考慮了第一季 2% 至 4% 的年比業績,考慮到我們去年的業績,我們對此感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dennis Geiger, UBS.

    瑞銀的丹尼斯·蓋格。

  • Dennis Geiger - Analyst

    Dennis Geiger - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a little bit on the throughput opportunity for this year. I'm sure this is something we'll hear more about at the Investor Day. But anything to share on if any of the throughput efforts are in place already and if there was a benefit in the quarter from that? And then really just kind of how to think about how impactful that might be in '25?

    我想問一下今年的吞吐量機會。我確信我們會在投資者日聽到更多關於這方面的消息。但是,如果任何吞吐量努力已經到位並且本季從中獲益,有什麼可以分享的嗎?那麼實際上,您如何思考這在 25 年可能會產生多大的影響?

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So as we look at the throughput opportunity, it's certainly something we're focused on. We do have long lines in some of our shops. And as we look at that opportunity, right now, what we're very focused on is deployment. And so making sure that our Broistas are in the production zone when they need to be there that we have the right number of runners out taking orders to match the amount of production we have.

    是的。因此,當我們考慮吞吐量機會時,這肯定是我們關注的重點。我們的一些商店確實排起了長隊。當我們看到這個機會時,現在我們非常關注的是部署。因此,我們要確保我們的 Broistas 在需要的時候出現在生產區,並有足夠數量的跑腿人員接受訂單,以匹配我們的生產量。

  • And one of the benefits of mobile order is really in helping with throughput. One, because it takes out that order time as mobile order penetration grows, and it also balances our production. And so we continue to see that more of the mobile orders are being picked up at the walk-up window than through the drive-thru lane. So that is also something that helps the throughput.

    行動訂單的其中一個好處是確實有助於提高吞吐量。一是因為隨著行動訂單滲透率的提高,它會減少訂單時間,同時也平衡了我們的生產。因此,我們繼續看到,更多的移動訂單是在步行窗口而不是透過免下車通道領取的。這也有助於提高吞吐量。

  • Dennis Geiger - Analyst

    Dennis Geiger - Analyst

  • That's great. Thanks, Christine. And one more maybe related to that, shifting over to mobile. It sounds like it is going well. Just curious as it relates to sort of incrementality, you mentioned frequency still sounds really positive. If any sense on incrementality or kind of what the benefit to sales may be if there's any way to kind of articulate that.

    那太棒了。謝謝,克里斯汀。還有一個可能與此相關,轉向行動端。聽起來一切進展順利。只是好奇,由於它與增量有關,你提到的頻率聽起來仍然非常積極。如果對增量有任何看法或對銷售有什麼好處,有什麼方法可以表達這一點。

  • Related sort of as we think about the marketing here, it seems like you want to go at a generally measured pace on the mobile adoption. Just curious where we're at from a marketing perspective. Is it just the always-on marketing in the app? Are you doing anything more from a marketing perspective or not yet? Thank you.

    正如我們在考慮這裡的行銷時所看到的,您似乎希望以大致可控的速度推進行動應用。只是好奇從行銷角度來看我們處於什麼位置。它只是應用程式內永遠在線的行銷嗎?您是否從行銷角度採取了更多行動?謝謝。

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So as far as building mobile order, our goal here is really to have this be super stable and steady as it's adopted at our shops so that our Broistas are incredibly successful. We feel, I think, really most proud of the service that we are providing along with mobile order. So feel really good about the pace at which this is growing right now.

    是的。因此,就建立行動訂單而言,我們的目標是讓它在我們的商店採用時非常穩定和穩定,以便我們的 Broistas 獲得巨大的成功。我認為,我們最為自豪的是我們所提供的行動訂購服務。所以對於目前的成長速度感到非常高興。

  • And as far as looking at incrementality, we really view that in three different ways. So I think we've shared from the Dutch Rewards perspective, we can measure what happens before and after. As we move through that, we are seeing -- as we add more cohorts that the most likely to order cohorts get at it first and so see a little bit of a drop in that, but still very pleased with that incrementality that we're seeing directly from Dutch Rewards.

    就增量而言,我們實際上從三種不同的角度來看待它。因此我認為我們從荷蘭獎勵的角度分享了我們可以衡量之前和之後發生的事情。隨著我們不斷推進,我們看到 - 隨著我們增加更多的群組,最有可能下訂單的群組首先獲得訂單,因此看到略有下降,但我們對直接從 Dutch Rewards 看到的增量仍然感到非常滿意。

  • The second piece is that we continue to see that increase in the Dutch Rewards program. So new members joining and immediately making a mobile order. So really likely joining because of mobile order.

    第二點是,我們繼續看到荷蘭獎勵計劃的成長。因此新會員加入後可以立即進行行動訂購。因此很可能透過移動訂單加入。

  • And then finally, where you started those throughput opportunities. So customers coming through the lines and seeing that it's a little shorter or there's less time. And so we're really pleased across the board with what we're seeing from a mobile order perspective.

    最後,您從哪裡開始這些吞吐量機會。因此,顧客排隊時會發現時間變短了或所剩的時間更少了。因此,我們對移動訂單情況感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris O'Cull, Stifel.

    克里斯·奧卡爾(Chris O'Cull),斯蒂費爾(Stifel)。

  • Chris O'Cull - Analyst

    Chris O'Cull - Analyst

  • Congrats on a strong finish to the year. Josh, the company's CapEx target for '25 is lower than we expected. And I know you mentioned CapEx per shop was $1.8 million in the fourth quarter.

    恭喜您今年取得了圓滿的成績。喬希,公司 25 年的資本支出目標低於我們的預期。我知道您提到第四季度每家店的資本支出為 180 萬美元。

  • But what's the company expecting for 2025 in terms of cash outlay per store? And is leasing the primary reason for the lower cash outlay or are there some other cost savings as well?

    但就每家店的現金支出而言,該公司對 2025 年的預期是什麼?租賃是現金支出較低的主要原因嗎?

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, thanks for the question. Yeah, our focus on driving down the per unit CapEx is really shifting the lease components. So shifting to a greater proportion of build-to-suit leases. We are making progress in that way and certainly have focused on that in '24 and into '25, and we'll start seeing the benefits of that as we move ourselves into '25.

    是的,謝謝你的提問。是的,我們專注於降低單位資本支出,這實際上正在改變租賃組成部分。因此,轉向更大比例的客製化租賃。我們正在以這種方式取得進展,並且肯定會在2024年和2025年重點關注這一點,當我們進入2025年時,我們將開始看到這樣做的好處。

  • And I think we shared previously that we expected that 2024 would be kind of our peak per unit CapEx. So we're expecting to see that come down. We are expecting to be able to provide you guys a little bit more granularity and specificity of that as we get into our Investor Day conversations, but that's what's really driving the CapEx outlook.

    我記得我們之前曾分享過,我們預計 2024 年將是我們單位資本支出的峰值。因此,我們預計該數字將會下降。我們希望在投資者日對話中能夠為大家提供更詳細和更具體的信息,但這才是真正推動資本支出前景的因素。

  • Chris O'Cull - Analyst

    Chris O'Cull - Analyst

  • Do you expect additional lease arrangements to impact the shop-level margin this year? And how should we think about it impacting the long-term margin goals, I think, which are in like the high-20% range?

    您是否預計今年的額外租賃安排會影響店鋪利潤?我們該如何看待它對長期獲利目標的影響?

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I mean certainly, it is a factor, as you're referencing build-to-suit leases tend to be higher rent than the ground lease. That's factored into the guidance we're providing. So what we're seeing is included in the overall guide for our EBITDA guide for the year. I think over the longer term, again, it's something as we share our longer-term trajectory, something we can provide more specificity on at a later date.

    是的。我的意思是,這當然是一個因素,因為你提到的客製化租賃往往比土地租賃的租金更高。這已考慮到我們提供的指導中。因此,我們所看到的內容包含在我們今年的 EBITDA 指南的整體指南中。我認為從長遠來看,當我們分享我們的長期發展軌跡時,我們可以在以後提供更具體的資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andy Barish, Jefferies.

    傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的安迪巴里什 (Andy Barish)。

  • Andy Barish - Analyst

    Andy Barish - Analyst

  • Yeah, tough to find anything concerning, but it was with the '25 company openings in the quarter was the lowest number since the IPO. Is that just kind of the end result of some of the work done over the past year?

    是的,很難找到任何令人擔憂的事情,但本季新開設的 25 家公司數量是 IPO 以來的最低水準。這是否只是過去一年所做一些工作的最終成果?

  • And then I think you made some commentary around openings picking up in the back half of the year. At least historically, the 1Q has been the highest number of openings annually on the company-owned side. So can you just kind of give us a little bit of the shape and help us level set on the modeling there?

    然後我認為您對今年下半年開業情況的回升發表了一些評論。至少從歷史上看,第一季是公司自營部門每年招聘職位最多的季度。那麼您能否為我們提供一點形狀並幫助我們在那裡設置模型?

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So as we look at the year, we're really pleased with the market planning efforts we've had and the impact that we've had on that new shop productivity. One outcome of that is just shifting some of the units out towards the back half of next year.

    是的。因此,回顧這一年,我們對我們的市場規劃工作以及對新店生產力的影響感到非常滿意。這樣做的結果之一就是將部分單位轉移至明年下半年。

  • So as we look at Q1 and Q2, they'll be at about 30 really similar to Q4 and then as we will ramp as we go into Q3 and Q4 of next year. And again, that is really an outcome from the market planning efforts we've done over the last year, 1.5 years, to really shape that pipeline to drive that new shop productivity and to lower the unit per unit CapEx for those units, which we're incredibly pleased with the results that we're seeing from that.

    因此,當我們回顧第一季和第二季時,它們的比例將達到 30 左右,與第四季度非常相似,然後隨著我們進入明年第三季和第四季,它們的比例將逐漸上升。再說一次,這實際上是我們在過去一年半中所做的市場規劃努力的成果,旨在真正塑造這一渠道,推動新車間的生產力,並降低這些單位的單位資本支出,我們對所看到的結果感到非常滿意。

  • Andy Barish - Analyst

    Andy Barish - Analyst

  • Got it. And then just one quick follow-up, Josh. On the 2% to 4% guide for system same-store sales, should we expect the company-owned to continue higher? Or just given the laps, will that kind of normalize a little bit?

    知道了。接下來還有一個快速的後續問題,喬希 (Josh)。在系統同店銷售額成長 2% 至 4% 的指導方針下,我們是否應該預期公司旗下的銷售額會繼續走高?或者只是給圈數,這種情況會稍微正常化一點嗎?

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I mean we have -- over 2024, what I'd say is we have seen that spread of company performance stronger than the franchise performance. Part of that being the contribution of those newer markets we're just growing faster on the company side than we are on the franchise side, and that contributing certainly to the performance that we've seen overall, but that has contributed to the spread. So I'd expect there to remain a spread throughout '25 as well.

    是的。我的意思是,到 2024 年,我想說的是,我們已經看到公司業績的成長勢頭強於特許經營業績的成長。部分原因是這些新市場的貢獻,我們在公司方面的成長速度比在特許經營方面的成長速度更快,這當然有助於我們看到整體的表現,但也有助於傳播。因此我預計整個 25 年內這種差距還會繼續擴大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Charles, TD Cowen & Company.

    安德魯·查爾斯(Andrew Charles),TD Cowen&Company。

  • Andrew Charles - Analyst

    Andrew Charles - Analyst

  • Josh, can you say a little more on how you came up with the 2% to 4% same-store sales guidance for 2025? You talked about how that's the right level to think about lapping 1Q, your toughest comparison of the year. With all the good stuff you guys have gone on for 2025, mobile order mix is increasing. The advertising is obviously paying off. How did you come up with 2% to 4%?

    喬希,你能否進一步說明一下你是如何得出 2025 年同店銷售額增長 2% 至 4% 的預期的?您談到了這是考慮第一季的正確水平,這是您今年最艱難的比較。隨著你們為 2025 年所做的所有好事,行動訂單組合正在增加。這些廣告顯然取得了成效。您是怎麼得出 2% 到 4% 這個數字的?

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I mean -- so I guess a few things I'd highlight is, as we think about that full year, we're coming a little over 5% for 2024. We're all rolling off a net of about 3 points in price. So that's certainly -- we'll just take on the ticket side.

    是的。我的意思是 — — 所以我想我要強調的幾件事是,當我們考慮全年時,到 2024 年我們的成長率將略高於 5%。我們的淨價格約為 3 個點。所以當然——我們只處理票務方面。

  • I think the -- as we think about the trajectory through the rest of the year, we have factored in the performance we saw in Q4. We factored in the strength we've seen so far in January. We do have the lap of Q1, the tough up in Q1. So when you put all those pieces together, we are assuming that that does drive some positive traffic, which we're very pleased with and very encouraged with just given the momentum we've seen. But I do feel really good about the ability to be able to drive that 2% to 4% despite the lap we have in Q1 and what we've seen today.

    我認為——當我們思考今年剩餘時間的發展軌跡時,我們已經將第四季的表現考慮在內了。我們考慮到了 1 月迄今為止所見的實力。我們確實有 Q1 的圈數,Q1 中的艱難時刻。因此,當你把所有這些部分放在一起時,我們假設這確實會帶來一些積極的流量,考慮到我們所看到的勢頭,我們對此感到非常高興和鼓舞。但儘管我們在 Q1 中遇到了一些問題以及今天遇到的情況,但我確實對自己能夠將 2% 提高到 4% 的能力感到非常滿意。

  • Andrew Charles - Analyst

    Andrew Charles - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And then, Christine, at a high level, how are you thinking about the advertising plan for 2025 versus '24? What are the ways that you can build on the success that you've seen will perhaps as you grow the budget new opportunities that would afford you? And I'm also curious, is embedded within the guidance, EBITDA guidance, is there a step-up in advertising in percent of sales embedded in that as well?

    好的,太好了。那麼,克里斯汀,從總體上講,您如何看待 2025 年與 2024 年的廣告計劃?隨著預算的增加,您可以採取哪些方式來鞏固已經取得的成功,從而獲得新的機會?我也很好奇,在指導方針、EBITDA 指導意見中,廣告在銷售額中所佔的百分比是否也有所增加?

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So as we look at 2025 and what we're going to do from an advertising perspective, we've learned a lot in 2024, which we will apply. So I think we continue to get smarter about which channels work best, what we should put in front of our potential customers and really have honed in on how we're using paid advertising to find new guests and then trying to get them into the rewards program as rapidly as possible so that we can speak directly to them with that rewards program.

    是的。因此,當我們展望 2025 年以及從廣告角度我們要做什麼時,我們在 2024 年學到了很多東西,我們會將這些知識運用起來。因此,我認為我們會繼續變得更加聰明,了解哪些管道最有效,我們應該把什麼放在我們的潛在客戶面前,並真正磨練如何使用付費廣告來尋找新客人,然後嘗試盡快讓他們加入獎勵計劃,這樣我們就可以透過獎勵計劃直接與他們對話。

  • We did begin testing some increase in paid advertising in our mature markets towards the end of the year. So we're pleased with early results there. And as we look at the year, I think we will continue to understand how we're driving ROI across our advertising efforts. And if we see opportunities to step that up, we might lean in.

    我們確實在年底開始在成熟市場測試增加付費廣告的力度。因此我們對早期的結果感到滿意。回顧這一年,我想我們將繼續了解如何透過廣告活動提高投資報酬率。如果我們看到加強這一方面的機會,我們可能會傾向於這麼做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sara Senatore, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的薩拉‧塞納托爾 (Sara Senatore)。

  • Sara Senatore - Analyst

    Sara Senatore - Analyst

  • Quick housekeeping and then a question on new store productivity. You mentioned 3 points of prices rolling off. So you had, I think, 4 points in the quarter. I just wanted to confirm that. And then as you think about 2025, then implies pretty modest pricing.

    快速整理一下,然後詢問有關新店生產力的問題。您提到了價格下滑的 3 個點。所以我認為你本節得到了 4 分。我只是想確認一下。當你想到 2025 年時,就意味著相當適中的定價。

  • And then the question is on new unit productivity. I mean, Christine, you mentioned how strong it's been. This is the first quarter and it's always kind of confounded by opening timing where it actually looks like maybe the new unit productivity is perhaps even higher than the system average. I guess if you could just speak to that and maybe anything you're seeing early days in Florida. Thanks.

    然後問題是關於新單位生產率。我的意思是,克里斯汀,你提到了它有多強大。這是第一季度,開盤時間總是讓人有些困惑,實際上看起來新單位的生產力甚至可能高於系統平均。我想您可以談談這個問題以及您早期在佛羅裡達州看到的任何情況。謝謝。

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, so I'll start with your pricing question. You're right. So we had about 4 points of price in Q4. It's a bit more than that for the full year, but we are rolling off a net of 3 for the full year as we go through the year, which does imply a very modest price -- incremental price coming in on for the balance of '25.

    是的,我將從您的定價問題開始。你說得對。因此,我們在第四季的價格約為 4 個點。對於全年來說,這個數字會稍微高一點,但隨著一年的進行,我們將全年的淨收入增加 3 倍,這確實意味著一個非常適中的價格 - 增量價格將在 25 年的餘額中出現。

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. And on new shop productivity, we were very pleased with the fourth quarter. As we look overall, some of the openings, we have had some very, very strong openings in Southern California. And so as some of those came into the system, just saw the results from that. So definitely pleased with what we're seeing.

    是的。就新店鋪生產力而言,我們對第四季非常滿意。總體來看,我們在南加州有一些非常非常強勁的空缺。當其中一些進入系統後,我們就看到了結果。我們對所看到的結果非常滿意。

  • And then as far as Florida, still really early days, but very excited by what we're seeing from a customer reception. Last week, I was just at one of our openings in Florida. And amazing to see that folks were waiting in line at 11:00 PM, the night before we opened, and just a neat reception to see in a very new market, very far away from where it all started.

    至於佛羅裡達州,目前仍處於早期階段,但我們對客戶接待的情況感到非常興奮。上週,我剛參加了我們在佛羅裡達州的一次開幕活動。令人驚訝的是,我們開業前一天晚上11點就看到人們在排隊,而在一個距離一切開始的地方非常遙遠的新市場,我們看到瞭如此整潔的接待處。

  • Sara Senatore - Analyst

    Sara Senatore - Analyst

  • Yes, certainly, what we saw was very exciting. I guess if I could just sneak one more in. What you're doing with advertising or real estate strategy, does that change how I should think about sales transfer? Something that I think you talked about last quarter but not this quarter, so just as I look at traffic.

    是的,當然,我們看到的景象非常令人興奮。我想如果我能再偷偷溜進去一個就好了。您在廣告或房地產策略方面的做法會改變我對銷售轉移的看法嗎?我認為您上個季度談到這件事,但這個季度沒有談到,所以就像我看流量一樣。

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I mean I think as we've shared before, we feel comfortable with sales transfer in the range we've talked about previously as we are opening shops and creating greater convenience for customers, that's going to result in some intentional transfer. So I think I feel good about that range. Over time, certainly, as we grow, and that comp base grows, it will come down. So again, very consistent with what we've referenced in the past.

    是的。我的意思是,正如我們之前所分享的,我們對之前談到的範圍內的銷售轉移感到滿意,因為我們正在開設商店並為客戶創造更大的便利,這將導致一些有意的轉移。所以我認為我對這個範圍感覺很好。當然,隨著時間的推移,隨著我們的成長以及公司基礎的成長,這個數字將會下降。所以,這與我們過去提到的非常一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeffrey Bernstein, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的傑弗裡·伯恩斯坦。

  • Jeffrey Bernstein - Analyst

    Jeffrey Bernstein - Analyst

  • My first question is just following up on the 2025 unit pipeline. I mean clearly, comps come and go depending on the consumer and promotions and whatnot. But the unit growth is obviously the key driver of the top line. So can you just talk about the mix of new versus existing markets?

    我的第一個問題只是跟進 2025 年單位管道的情況。我的意思是,很明顯,優惠券的來來去去取決於消費者、促銷活動等等。但銷售成長顯然是營收成長的關鍵驅動力。那麼您能談談新市場和現有市場的組合嗎?

  • And maybe you can compare and contrast Florida versus Texas performance. It sounds like you're pleased with Florida. I know you have a more of a refined new market approach. So, just trying to get a sense for that white space opportunity and maybe comparing contrast in those two big markets that you had a different approach in. And then I had one follow-up.

    也許您可以比較佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的表現。聽起來你對佛羅裡達很滿意。我知道您有更精緻的新市場方法。因此,只是試著了解那個空白機會,並比較一下你採取不同方法的兩個大市場的對比。然後我進行了一次後續行動。

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So we're just getting started in Florida. And I would say the learnings from Texas where as we go in, we will still go in with the same number and the same penetration into the market. We just might time it over time a little bit differently. And so we are pleased with what we're seeing from that so far.

    因此我們在佛羅裡達州才剛開始。我想說的是,我們從德克薩斯州學到的是,當我們進入時,我們仍然會以相同的數量和相同的市場滲透率進入。我們可能只是對時間安排做了一些稍微不同的調整。我們對目前看到的情況感到滿意。

  • But this is certainly -- we have customers that come to us quite often, so we can put shops quite close together. We will open some new markets next year, but we continue to have a lot of infill still in our existing markets as we grow.

    但這確實是——我們有經常光顧的顧客,所以我們可以把商店建得相當近。明年我們將開拓一些新市場,但隨著我們的發展,我們現有的市場仍會有大量填充。

  • So Florida, I mean we are like at seven or eight shops right now. So we are just getting started in the state of Florida and we'll have some new cities that we'll open in next year as we go. And I do think at our Investor Day, we are going to share a little bit more about how we're performing in some of these newer markets as well.

    在佛羅裡達,我的意思是我們現在有七、八家商店。我們目前才剛在佛羅裡達州起步,明年我們會在一些新的城市開展業務。我確實認為,在我們的投資者日,我們將更多地分享我們在一些較新市場中的表現。

  • Jeffrey Bernstein - Analyst

    Jeffrey Bernstein - Analyst

  • Great. And then just following up on the coffee cost question. Josh, I think you said 110-basis-point headwind in '25, but I got the impression, I guess, you're thinking that pace of the headwind accelerates through the year. So I'm just wondering how we should think about that. Whether there's any potential for contracting to mitigate or whether at some point you would consider incremental pricing to offset.

    偉大的。然後繼續討論咖啡成本的問題。喬希,我想你說過 25 年逆風有 110 個基點,但我的印像是,你認為逆風的速度會在全年加速。所以我只是想知道我們應該如何看待這個問題。是否有可能透過簽訂合約來緩解影響,或者是否會在某個時候考慮透過增量定價來抵消。

  • I know you mentioned you're really not planning on taking much, but just curious why the thought process around whether it makes sense to take or whether you're trying to protect your value scores or how you think about that. Thank you.

    我知道您提到您實際上不打算拿太多,但我只是好奇為什麼要思考拿多少是否有意義或您是否想保護您的價值分數或您是如何看待這一點的。謝謝。

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Happy to talk about coffee a little bit. So the 110 basis points you referenced is the company margin impact that we're expecting. I'd add to that is the franchise margin as well. So overall adjusted EBITDA margin impact, we're expecting to be about 150 basis points.

    是的。很高興談論一點關於咖啡的事情。因此,您提到的 110 個基點是我們預期的公司利潤率影響。我想補充的是特許經營利潤率。因此,我們預期整體調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率影響約為 150 個基點。

  • For purposes of the guidance and as we've looked at this, I'm guessing not all of you in the coffee market as much as maybe I am, but coffee has been trading at very high levels. We've, for modeling purposes, assume that it maintains about $4 for the balance of the year. For historical context and even '24, we were closer to the $2 mark per pound. So substantial increase year over year.

    為了提供指導,正如我們所看到的,我猜並不是所有人都像我一樣關注咖啡市場,但咖啡的交易價格一直處於非常高的水平。出於建模目的,我們假設它在全年餘額中維持在 4 美元左右。從歷史背景來看,甚至在 24 年,我們都更接近每磅 2 美元的水平。因此去年去年有大幅成長。

  • If you were to look at the future curve and look at how that might shape up, the future market would suggest that it might come down in the back part of the year, but we're assuming that it holds at about $4 for the balance.

    如果您觀察未來的曲線並觀察其可能如何形成,未來市場將表明它可能會在年底下降,但我們假設它將保持在 4 美元左右的水平。

  • As we think about this longer term, history in the coffee market would suggest that these are temporary spikes that should not have a prolonged impact. And therefore, as we think about pricing, we're taking the longer view of making sure that we maintain our value proposition, make sure we're taking a pricing according to the overall structure of the business

    當我們從長遠角度考慮這個問題時,咖啡市場的歷史表明,這些都是暫時的飆升,不會產生長期影響。因此,當我們考慮定價時,我們會從長遠的角度考慮,確保我們保持我們的價值主張,確保我們根據業務的整體結構進行定價

  • If, for some reason, the coffee prices were to be a more structural change, a more foundational change that were to be more persistent, certainly, there's other factors we could look at considering price being one and then potentially other offsets in the P&L. So that's one we'll -- it's been incredibly volatile, especially more recently. It's one we'll just keep you guys updated on as we progress throughout the year.

    如果由於某種原因,咖啡價格發生更具結構性的變化,更具基礎性的變化,並且更加持久,那麼當然,我們可以考慮其他因素,將價格作為其中之一,然後在損益表中考慮其他潛在的抵消因素。所以我們會發現 — — 它的波動性非常大,特別是最近。我們將隨時向大家通報全年進度。

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Jeff, the only thing I would add to that is our customer value proposition is really strong right now. And when we look at what's driving our performance overall, we continue to feel incredibly good about where we are in that space. And so I think from a price perspective, we have great shop-level margins. And so ensuring that we're continuing to provide our customers with the incredible value that they see today is a top priority for us.

    傑夫,我唯一想補充的是,我們的客戶價值主張現在非常強大。當我們審視推動我們整體表現的因素時,我們對自己在這一領域的現狀感到非常滿意。因此我認為從價格角度來看,我們的商店利潤率很高。因此,確保我們繼續為客戶提供他們今天所看到的令人難以置信的價值是我們的首要任務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Ivankoe, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的約翰伊凡科 (John Ivankoe)。

  • John Ivankoe - Analyst

    John Ivankoe - Analyst

  • I wanted to get back to the topic of using paid media for legacy or maybe even more mature markets. What is the, I guess, addressable need that you think that marketing would actually achieve? I mean do you still have a lack of awareness for certain consumer cohorts do you think the paid media could generate?

    我想回到使用付費媒體來應對傳統市場或甚至更成熟的市場的話題。我認為,您認為行銷實際上可以滿足哪些可解決的需求?我的意思是,您是否仍缺乏對某些消費者群體的認知,您認為付費媒體能夠產生這樣的認知嗎?

  • And when we talk about paid media, is it billboards, is it drive-time radio, if there's still such a thing? Is it broadcast TV? Or is it highly targeted digital? Or is it influencer digital? Just give us a sense in terms of what that marketing might look like. Because clearly, in many of these markets, you would have a fairly big system-wide sales budget to spread those dollars across. Thank you.

    當我們談論付費媒體時,是指廣告看板嗎?是廣播電視嗎?還是高度針對性的數字?或者說它是有影響力的數字?請向我們簡單介紹一下這種行銷方式是什麼樣的。因為顯然,在許多這樣的市場中,你會擁有相當大的系統範圍的銷售預算來分攤這些資金。謝謝。

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So from a marketing perspective, we're doing, I would say, targeted digital marketing for the most part. And we are doing some unique things within communities where they make sense as well that are a little bit broader than that. And as far as mature markets go that we certainly have a big opportunity to grow brand awareness in our new markets where it is quite low.

    是的。因此從行銷角度來看,我們主要進行的是有針對性的數位行銷。我們在社區內做一些獨特的事情,這些事情也很有意義,而且範圍比這更廣泛一些。就成熟市場而言,我們肯定有很大機會在新市場中提升品牌知名度,因為新市場的品牌知名度還較低。

  • However, even in many of our mature markets, we really are much lower from a brand awareness than other large players in those markets. And so we do believe that there's an opportunity even in those markets to drive that awareness. So I think that as we look at this, we can look at our returns as we do different things across the advertising spectrum and really making targeted investments that we believe makes sense for us from a financial perspective.

    然而,即使在許多成熟市場中,我們的品牌知名度也遠低於這些市場的其他大型公司。因此,我們確實相信,即使在這些市場中也有機會提高這種意識。因此,我認為,當我們審視這個問題時,我們可以審視我們的回報,因為我們在廣告領域做不同的事情,並且真正進行我們認為從財務角度來看對我們有意義的有針對性的投資。

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, John, and maybe just on the cost side of it, of how we're thinking about it. We did really start ramping up more of those marketing efforts in the back part of last year. So I'd expect that we'll maintain that. All this is contemplated in that full guide that we provided.

    是的,約翰,也許只是從成本方面考慮我們是如何考慮的。我們確實從去年下半年開始加強行銷。所以我希望我們能夠保持這種狀態。所有這些都已在我們提供的完整指南中考慮到了。

  • But I would expect that that would be a little bit more level throughout the year this year. That, combined with the people investments that we've made throughout the year, really would create a flatter shape to that curve than what we saw in '24.

    但我預計今年全年的情況會更加平穩。結合我們全年在人力方面的投資,這曲線確實會比 24 年的曲線更平坦。

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, the advertising cost within SG&A, yeah.

    是的,銷售、一般及行政開支內的廣告費用,是的。

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • That's right.

    這是正確的。

  • John Ivankoe - Analyst

    John Ivankoe - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. I'll follow up on that. And I know there's obviously been a lot of success on the brand using unpaid organic influencer marketing. Does it make sense to maybe do some incentivized influencer marketing at some point as some of these assets, obviously, are realizing they're worth especially when it comes to brands like your own?

    好的,謝謝。我會跟進此事。我知道,品牌使用無償的有機影響力行銷顯然取得了巨大成功。在某些時候進行一些激勵性影響力行銷是否有意義,因為其中一些資產顯然正在意識到它們的價值,特別是當涉及到像您自己的品牌時?

  • Yeah. So we do continue to speak with our super fans and find them out there and send sometimes special boxes to some of our super fans. What we are really thoughtful about is that for us, it has to be super authentic and really people that love our brand and are already users of the brand and actually reaching out to them, engaging with them in ways that are fun for them and fun for their followers. So that we do believe that there is something there, but I think we're going to definitely do it in a unique Dutch Bros way.

    是的。因此,我們會繼續與我們的超級粉絲交談,找到他們,有時會向一些超級粉絲發送特殊的盒子。我們真正深思熟慮的是,對我們來說,它必須非常真實,真正熱愛我們品牌的人,已經是該品牌的用戶,並且實際上與他們聯繫,以對他們和他們的追隨者來說都有趣的方式與他們互動。所以我們確實相信那裡有某種東西,但我認為我們肯定會以一種獨特的 Dutch Bros 方式來做到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gregory Francfort, Guggenheim Securities.

    古根漢證券的格雷戈里·弗蘭克福特(Gregory Francfort)。

  • Gregory Francfort - Analyst

    Gregory Francfort - Analyst

  • Josh, I think you talked about the waterfall effect on the new stores maybe helping the comp. But can you just update us on what kind of the year two, year three AUV ramp is for your new stores? And how are you maybe most mature markets comping?

    喬希,我認為你談到了新店的瀑布效應也許會對公司有所幫助。但您能否向我們介紹一下您新店第二年和第三年的 AUV 成長情況?你們與大多數成熟市場的競爭情況如何?

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So I mean, Greg, thanks for the question. I'd say we're seeing strength across the board. What we have seen is really strong performance as those newer vintages are maturing really through the combination of the paid media that we've been leading into the market planning efforts that we have to really improve the overall shop productivity, as well as the adoption of what we've seen in mobile order. So I feel like there's really good strength in those new markets and strength across the board.

    是的。我的意思是,格雷格,謝謝你的提問。我想說,我們看到了各方面的力量。我們看到的是真正強勁的表現,因為這些較新的年份產品正在逐漸成熟,這是透過我們一直引領的付費媒體與市場規劃工作的結合來實現的,我們必須真正提高整體商店生產力,以及採用我們在行動訂單中看到的技術。因此,我覺得這些新市場確實實力雄厚,各方面實力都很強。

  • As we think about just kind of the geographic breakdown of vintages, that's something we can talk a bit more about in our Investor Day. That's something that we're dissecting right now.

    當我們考慮葡萄酒年份的地理分佈時,我們可以在投資者日上進一步討論這個問題。這就是我們現在正在剖析的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Farmer, Gordon Haskett.

    傑夫法默、戈登哈斯凱特。

  • Jeff Farmer - Analyst

    Jeff Farmer - Analyst

  • You did share a lot of information on the drivers of that very strong 6.9% comp in the quarter. But I'm curious, again, you touched on it, what were some of the biggest upside surprises relative to what you were thinking about when you guided to low single-digit same-store sales in November? So the big upside, what were you guys seeing there?

    您確實分享了許多有關本季 6.9% 強勁成長的驅動因素的資訊。但我很好奇,您再次提到了這一點,與您預期的 11 月份同店銷售額為個位數低位時的情況相比,最大的意外驚喜是什麼?那麼最大的好處是,你們看到了什麼?

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So I think if you break it down that seeing that real strength in transactions, so that 2 points of traffic and all of the drivers behind it, again, everything really just hitting in the right way. So it's coming together with mobile order and the paid advertising and all of those pieces and having a strong lineup for the holidays with our beverages.

    是的。因此,我認為,如果您將其分解開來,您會看到交易中的真正實力,即 2 點的流量和背後的所有驅動因素,再一次,一切都真正以正確的方式進行。所以它與行動訂購、付費廣告和所有這些部分結合在一起,為我們的假日飲料打造強大的陣容。

  • So all of those things, plus we increased those merch drops that we did throughout the quarter. And although they do drive outsized sales on the day that we launched them, they also drive interest in the brand. And so all of those things together are what we believe are really driving the traffic.

    除上述所有事項外,我們還增加了整個季度的商品投放量。儘管它們在推出當天確實推動了超額的銷量,但它們也激發了人們對該品牌的興趣。因此,我們相信所有這些因素共同作用,才是真正推動流量成長的因素。

  • The other piece, as we were seeing the strength in the quarter, we were able to pull back on discounts. And so that discount rate added a little bit over 1 point as well to what we saw. So very excited that everything was able to hit. I think the brand is resonating. And then the strength in just as we continue to read where we sit from a customer value proposition and what our customers think about us, from that perspective, it's really working that way.

    另一點是,由於我們看到本季的強勁表現,我們能夠減少折扣。因此,折扣率也比我們看到的略高 1 個百分點。非常興奮,一切都能夠實現。我認為這個品牌正在引起共鳴。然後,當我們繼續了解我們在客戶價值主張中所處的位置以及客戶對我們的看法時,從這個角度來看,它確實就是這樣運作的。

  • And then I would just finally add this new shop performance. And so those newer vintages coming into the comp were also something that we're certainly at the high end of where we thought they might be.

    然後我最終會添加這個新的商店表演。因此,我們確信,進入葡萄酒市場的那些較新的年份的葡萄酒的價格肯定處於我們預想的高位。

  • Jeff Farmer - Analyst

    Jeff Farmer - Analyst

  • Okay. That's very helpful. And just two follow-ups on that. So pulling back on discounting, I'm curious how that will continue or how you expect that to continue over the next few quarters. And then also sort of the tailwind associated with the newer shops entering the comparable store base, sounds like that's -- it's been a question, but a healthy tailwind here.

    好的。這非常有幫助。對此,還有兩個後續問題。因此,撤回折扣,我很好奇這種情況將如何繼續,或者您預計這種情況在接下來的幾個季度將如何繼續。然後還有一種與進入同類商店基礎的新商店相關的順風,聽起來就像是 - 這是一個疑問,但這是一個健康的順風。

  • But if we put those things together, not looking for the math, but again, in terms of thinking about you guys pulling back on discounting, does that continue? And should we expect to continue to see a pretty nice tailwind as it relates to new stores entering the comparable store base?

    但是,如果我們把這些因素放在一起,不尋求數學答案,而是再次思考你們是否會減少折扣,這種情況會繼續下去嗎?我們是否應該期待繼續看到新店進入同類店鋪群的良好順風?

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No. So but I would say it was a pretty -- it was a relatively minor pullback on the discounting. And one of the things, when you think about customer value proposition, it's made up of a lot of things. It's what our customers are receiving.

    不。所以,我想說,這是一次相當不錯的 — — 這是一次相對較小的折扣回落。當您考慮客戶價值主張時,您會發現它由許多事物組成。這就是我們的客戶所收到的。

  • We believe the strength of the rewards program and the value that our customers see from that rewards program is a big factor in helping to drive our customer value proposition strength right now. And so those extra points getting those free rewards are an important part of being a customer at Dutch Bros. And so although we will look at that discount rate consistently with how we're performing, we will also continue to add value to our customers in that way. So that's something important to us.

    我們相信,獎勵計劃的優勢以及客戶從該獎勵計劃中看到的價值是幫助推動我們當前客戶價值主張優勢的重要因素。因此,獲得這些免費獎勵的額外積分是成為 Dutch Bros 客戶的重要組成部分。因此,儘管我們會根據我們的業績持續關注折扣率,但我們也會繼續以這種方式為客戶增加價值。這對我們來說很重要。

  • And then on the new shops entering the comp base, again, just saw strength from that. And I think that that's driven by getting to a place where you're driving past a lot of Dutch Bros as we have more shops in new markets, all of the paid advertising that we've had throughout the last year into those new markets. And then that real concerted effort to get customers into the rewards program quickly so that we can speak to them directly, share with the new drinks, share with them when we're doing a sticker drop, and all of that is just building on each other.

    然後,當新商店進入公司基礎時,我們再次看到了其實力。我認為這是由於我們在新市場開設了更多店鋪,在那裡您會經過很多 Dutch Bros,並且我們在去年向這些新市場投放了所有付費廣告。然後,我們真正齊心協力地讓顧客快速加入獎勵計劃,這樣我們就可以直接與他們交談,分享新飲品,在我們投放貼紙時與他們分享,所有這些都是相互促進的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Setyan, Wedbush Securities.

    韋德布希證券公司的尼克‧塞蒂安 (Nick Setyan)。

  • Nick Setyan - Analyst

    Nick Setyan - Analyst

  • Thanks for the question. Aside from the coffee impact on COGS, where do you think all the inflation could be? How should we think about sort of all-in COGS aside from the 150 bps headwind from coffee?

    謝謝你的提問。除了咖啡對銷貨成本的影響之外,您認為通貨膨脹可能出現在哪裡?除了咖啡帶來的 150 個基點的逆風之外,我們還應該如何考慮全部銷貨成本?

  • Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

    Josh Guenser - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Nick, so the way I think about COGS and the guidance we provided was really the overall net impact for COGS was the deleverage of about 110 basis points that is inclusive of impacts of pricing that we plan to take as well as other impacts of commodities. So I would say the majority of that, as we referenced, is coming from coffee -- the vast majority of that is coming from coffee. But there are some other factors -- other impacts that we've included in that as well.

    是的。尼克,我對 COGS 的看法以及我們提供的指導實際上是 COGS 的總體淨影響是去槓桿化約 110 個基點,其中包括我們計劃採取的定價影響以及其他商品的影響。所以我想說,正如我們所提到的,其中大部分來自咖啡——絕大多數來自咖啡。但我們也考慮了其他一些因素——其他影響。

  • Nick Setyan - Analyst

    Nick Setyan - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. And you shared a lot of information on the food test. Would you mind just reminding us what percentage of system that test is taking place in whether you plan to expand the test as the year progresses? And any other helpful information like attach rates or where it's mixing in in the test market?

    好的,謝謝。您還分享了很多有關食物測試的資訊。您能否提醒我們這項測試在系統中佔據了多大比例,您是否計劃在今年年底前擴大測試範圍?還有其他有用的資訊嗎,例如附加率或在測試市場中的混合情況?

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So as we look at the food test, we are just in eight shops right now. So we are still in assortment testing. We are planning out how we're going to do this from a supply chain perspective, and we are refining all of the operational protocols that we want to use as we look at this. So we're definitely not at a place right now where we would share additional numbers from that.

    是的。因此,當我們進行食品測試時,我們目前只在八家商店進行。因此我們仍在進行分類測試。我們正在從供應鏈的角度規劃如何做到這一點,並且我們正在完善我們想要使用的所有操作協議。因此,我們目前還不能分享更多相關數據。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sharon Zackfia, William Blair.

    莎朗·扎克菲亞、威廉·布萊爾。

  • Sharon Zackfia - Analyst

    Sharon Zackfia - Analyst

  • I guess I wanted to talk about the development pipeline, which I know is in great shape. I'm curious how you're kind of handicapping potential construction delays with deportations and how you're also thinking about raw materials kind of coming into play for the actual building costs.

    我想談談開發流程,我知道它進展順利。我很好奇您是如何透過驅逐出境來阻止潛在的建築延誤的,以及您是如何考慮原材料對實際建築成本的影響的。

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So as we look at our development pipeline, we do consider those things. We are definitely in an environment that is changing right now. And so can't consider everything that we haven't heard about yet. But I think as far as the development pipeline, what we're always trying to do is have a larger pipeline than what we actually plan to open.

    是的。因此,當我們審視我們的開發流程時,我們確實會考慮這些事情。我們現在確實處於一個正在改變的環境中。因此我們無法考慮所有我們還未聽說過的事情。但我認為,就開發管道而言,我們一直試圖建立比我們實際計劃開放的管道更大的管道。

  • And so that's how we're starting off this year. And so really put some of that in to derisk the pipeline by just having more shops in the pipeline than the number that we actually plan to open in the year. And then those shops can move into the next year. So that's kind of how we think about managing potential delays and other pieces.

    這就是我們今年的開始。因此,我們確實投入了一部分資金來降低通路風險,透過增加通路商店的數量來降低我們今年實際計劃開設的商店數量。然後這些商店就可以進入明年了。這就是我們對處理潛在延誤和其他問題的想法。

  • Sharon Zackfia - Analyst

    Sharon Zackfia - Analyst

  • And just one follow-up. On the mobile journey. I mean, it's very impressive that it's already 8% as of the end of December. In your experience, kind of how does that look as we kind of build going forward? Is it something with a gradual build over time? Is there a concerted marketing push for it at some point? I mean, how are you viewing that internally?

    僅剩一個後續行動。在移動旅程中。我的意思是,截至 12 月底,這一數字已經達到 8%,這非常令人印象深刻。根據您的經驗,我們在未來的發展中會是什麼樣子的?它是隨著時間而逐漸建立起來的嗎?在某些時候是否會有協調一致的營銷推動?我的意思是,你內心是如何看待這個問題的?

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So the way that we view it internally as we always have is one mobile order has to fit within our brand. We have to continue to deliver the awesome service that we're known for and that awesome connection with our Broistas. And so what we are most pleased by is that feels like it's going incredibly well right now.

    是的。因此,我們內部的看法一貫是,行動訂單必須符合我們的品牌。我們必須繼續提供我們所聞名的優質服務以及與我們的 Broistas 之間的良好聯繫。因此,最讓我們高興的是,感覺現在一切都進展得非常順利。

  • And as we think about growth in mobile order, that steady growth of it is really what works best from an operations standpoint and continuing to listen to our Broistas and what can make it easier for them, continuing to listen to our customers and what additional updates they want on our app and pieces like that. So all of those things are in consideration.

    當我們考慮行動訂單的成長時,從營運的角度來看,穩定成長確實是最有效的,我們會繼續傾聽我們的 Broistas 的意見,讓他們覺得什麼可以讓他們更輕鬆,繼續傾聽客戶的意見,了解他們希望我們的應用程式獲得哪些額外更新等等。所以所有這些事情都在考慮之中。

  • But I would say we are pleased with the pace, very pleased with the pace at which it's going because it's what sets us up in the best way possible from an operations perspective.

    但我想說,我們對這個進度感到滿意,非常滿意,因為從營運的角度來看,這是為我們設定的最佳方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back to management for any closing comments.

    謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我想將發言權交還給管理階層,請他們發表最後評論。

  • Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christine Barone - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks for all your questions. At A Better World in December, we felt the energy of our field crews and leaders. Afterwards, they shared with us how important it was to get together, celebrate the culture, and bring our core values to life. Those core values are radiate kindness, get up early, stay up late, and change the world.

    感謝您提出的所有問題。在 12 月的「更美好的世界」活動中,我們感受到了現場工作人員和領導者的活力。之後,他們與我們分享了聚在一起、慶祝文化和實踐核心價值的重要性。這些核心價值是散發善意、早起、晚睡和改變世界。

  • Our teams live those values every single day. Our customers feel it when they go to the window, and our communities feel it as we partner to make a meaningful impact.

    我們的團隊每天都實踐這些價值觀。當我們的顧客走到窗口時,他們能感受到它;當我們的合作產生有意義的影響時,我們的社區也能感受到它。

  • In 2024, our company, customers, and crews work together to give more than $5 million to our communities. That includes a donation to support a local children's museum in our home of Grants Pass, and funds raised to support non-profits through our company-wide giving days and local givebacks. In total, we supported more than 500 local organizations.

    2024 年,我們公司、客戶和團隊齊心協力,為社區捐贈超過 500 萬美元。其中包括捐款支持我們位於格蘭茨帕斯的當地兒童博物館,以及透過全公司範圍的捐贈日和當地回饋活動籌集資金來支持非營利組織。總的來說,我們支持了 500 多個當地組織。

  • Our growth is a compelling story, but it's the difference Dutch Bros makes and the opportunities we provide both within the company and in our communities that drives us. We look forward to continuing our momentum so we can truly make a massive difference one cup at a time.

    我們的成長故事引人入勝,但推動我們前進的是 Dutch Bros 所做的改變以及我們在公司內部和社區中提供的機會。我們期待繼續保持這種勢頭,這樣我們才能真正通過一杯一杯的努力,帶來巨大的改變。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。再次感謝您的參與。