使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the BellRing Brands, third quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
您好,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 BellRing Brands 2025 財年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Jennifer Meyer, Investor Relations for BellRing Brands. Please go ahead.
現在,我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言人,BellRing Brands 投資者關係部的 Jennifer Meyer。請繼續。
Jennifer Meyer - Head, Investor Relations
Jennifer Meyer - Head, Investor Relations
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for BellRing Brands third quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call. With me today are Darcy Davenport, our President and CEO; and Paul Rode, our CFO. Darcy and Paul will begin with prepared remarks, and after that we'll have a brief question-and-answer session. The press release and supplemental slide presentation that support these remarks are posted on our website in both the Investor Relations and the SEC Filings sections at bellring.com. In addition, the release and slides are available on the SEC's website.
早安,感謝您今天參加 BellRing Brands 2025 財年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的總裁兼首席執行官達西·達文波特 (Darcy Davenport) 和我們的首席財務官保羅·羅德 (Paul Rode)。達西和保羅將首先發表準備好的講話,然後我們將進行簡短的問答環節。支持上述言論的新聞稿及補充投影片已發佈於我們網站的投資人關係及SEC備案欄位(網址:bellring.com)。此外,新聞稿和投影片也可在美國證券交易委員會(SEC)網站上查閱。
Before we continue, I would like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that should be carefully considered by investors as actual results could differ materially from these statements. These forward-looking statements are current as of the date of this call, and management undertakes no obligation to update these statements.
在我們繼續之前,我想提醒您,本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響,投資者應仔細考慮,因為實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。這些前瞻性陳述截至本次電話會議召開之日均為最新,管理階層不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。
As a reminder, this call is being recorded, and an audio replay will be available on our website. And finally, this call will discuss certain non-GAAP measures. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure, see our press release issued yesterday and posted on our website.
提醒一下,本次通話正在錄音,音訊回放將在我們的網站上提供。最後,本次電話會議將討論某些非公認會計準則指標。有關這些非 GAAP 指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標的對照表,請參閱我們昨天發布並在我們網站上發布的新聞稿。
With that, I will turn the call over to Darcy.
說完這些,我將把電話轉給達西。
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Jennifer, and thank you all for joining us this morning. We delivered another impressive quarter, continuing to demonstrate our leadership position. Paul will go into more detail about the quarter's performance and how we expect to end the fiscal year. I plan to use my time today to remind you of our company's unique value proposition and why we believe in our continued success.
謝謝,詹妮弗,也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們又交出了一份令人印象深刻的季度成績單,繼續彰顯我們的領導地位。保羅將更詳細地介紹本季的表現以及我們對本財年結束的預期。我計劃利用今天的時間來提醒你們我們公司獨特的價值主張以及我們為什麼相信我們能夠繼續取得成功。
I have three key messages. The first, the ready-to-drink shake category is on fire with a long runway of growth. Second, Premier Protein's demand and brand fundamentals continue to show exceptional growth. And last, we're building on our brand momentum, positioning ourselves for many years of future growth.
我有三個關鍵訊息。首先,即飲奶昔類別非常火爆,並且具有長期的成長空間。其次,Premier Protein 的需求和品牌基本面持續呈現異常成長。最後,我們正在鞏固我們的品牌勢頭,為未來多年的成長做好準備。
Let's get started. As you know, our company's core focus is ready to drink shakes. It is no secret that this category remains one of the fastest-growing categories in the entire store. It has incredible momentum with meaningful long-term potential. Protein is at the center of many macro trends, including health and wellness, popularity of functional beverages, increases in GLP-1 usage and the constant consumer desire for convenience. Ready-to-drink shakes are thriving because they fit so well with the evolving lifestyles and values of today's consumers.
讓我們開始吧。如您所知,我們公司的核心重點是即飲奶昔。毫無疑問,這個類別仍然是整個商店中成長最快的類別之一。它擁有令人難以置信的發展勢頭和重大的長期潛力。蛋白質是許多宏觀趨勢的核心,包括健康和保健、功能性飲料的流行、GLP-1 使用量的增加以及消費者對便利性的持續追求。即飲奶昔之所以蓬勃發展,是因為它們非常符合當今消費者不斷變化的生活方式和價值觀。
RTDs grew 16% this quarter, with 70% of that growth coming from volume. 1 in 2 households now consume our TD shakes and a category added 5 penetration points in the past year. This was the second highest household penetration increase of any category, only behind prebiotic sodas. It is worth noting that Premier Protein contributed approximately one quarter of that growth, more than any other brand in the category.
本季 RTD 成長了 16%,其中 70% 的成長來自銷量。現在每 2 個家庭中就有 1 個消費我們的 TD 奶昔,並且該類別在過去一年中增加了 5 個滲透率點。這是所有類別中家庭滲透率增幅第二高的產品,僅次於益生元汽水。值得注意的是,Premier Protein 貢獻了約四分之一的成長,比同類別的任何其他品牌都多。
Retailers have seen this category's potential and are getting behind it. Many leading retailers turn to us for guidance on how to accelerate their growth. As the category leader, we serve as the official category captain in several key retailers and advise many others. We provide thought leadership on aisle location, assortment, merchandising solutions and signage. And retailers are taking action. They're adding more space for RTVs, testing higher traffic aisle locations and expanding displays in and out of the aisle, all in service of accelerating awareness of the category among their shoppers.
零售商已經看到了這一類別的潛力並正在大力支持它。許多領先的零售商向我們尋求如何加速其成長的指導。身為品類領導者,我們在多家主要零售商中擔任官方品類負責人,並為許多其他零售商提供諮詢。我們在過道位置、分類、商品銷售解決方案和標誌方面提供思想領導。零售商正在採取行動。他們正在為 RTV 增加更多空間,測試人流量更大的過道位置,並擴大過道內外的展示空間,所有這些都是為了提高購物者對該類別的認知。
Concurrently, they are deemphasizing less productive and, in many cases, declining subsegments and brands, which are weighing on their growth. Further adjustments of these underperformers remain a meaningful opportunity for the category. Success attracts competition. So it is not surprising to see new protein RTDs enter the category, especially in its biggest channel, club.
同時,他們不再重視那些生產力較低、在許多情況下正在衰落的細分市場和品牌,因為這阻礙了他們的成長。對這些表現不佳的企業進行進一步調整,對於該類別來說仍然是一個有意義的機會。成功吸引競爭。因此,看到新的蛋白質 RTD 進入該類別並不奇怪,尤其是在其最大的渠道俱樂部中。
The increased interest, especially from large established CPG companies further validates the long-term consumer relevance and staying power of this category. And in a low household penetration category, competition is good. It brings expanded shelf space increased marketing spend, heightened focused on innovation and a drive to delight consumers, all with the net effect of increased household penetration and category growth.
消費者興趣的增加,尤其是來自大型成熟快速消費品公司的興趣的增加,進一步證實了這一類別的長期消費者相關性和持久力。在家庭普及率較低的類別中,競爭是良好的。它擴大了貨架空間,增加了行銷支出,提高了對創新的關注度,並推動了消費者的滿意度,所有這些都帶來了家庭滲透率提高和品類成長的淨效應。
We continue to believe the category is in the early stages of growth. At 52% household penetration, it trails mature CPG categories, which are often at 80% to 90%. The convenient nutrition category has a third or less of the space of similar sized categories in the food channel, a compelling argument for more space. The combination of expanded distribution, new households and increased buy rate of existing users will propel this category for years to come. The convenient nutrition category will look vastly different in 5 to 10 years from now and Premier Protein is positioned well to lead that evolution.
我們仍然相信該類別正處於成長的早期階段。其家庭普及率為 52%,落後於成熟的 CPG 類別,後者的普及率通常為 80% 至 90%。方便營養品類所佔空間僅為食品通路中類似大小品類的三分之一甚至更少,這是需要更多空間的有力論據。分銷管道的擴大、新家庭的加入以及現有用戶購買率的提高將在未來幾年推動這一類別的發展。5 到 10 年後,方便營養品類別將發生巨大變化,而 Premier Protein 已做好準備引領這項變革。
My second message, Premier Protein's demand and brand fundamentals continue to show exceptional growth and strength. Premier Protein, with RTD market share of 25% is the number 1 brand in RTD segment as well as the number 1 brand in the broader convenient nutrition category. Our consumption grew 19% in Q3. Volume gains drove approximately 60% of this growth. The brand had an all-time high in household penetration and remains the leader in the RTD category, reaching 21.6% of consumers. Most encouragingly is that our loyalty and by rig have remained strong, among the highest in the category.
我的第二個訊息是,Premier Protein 的需求和品牌基本面繼續顯示出卓越的成長和實力。Premier Protein 的 RTD 市佔率為 25%,是 RTD 領域的第一品牌,也是更廣泛的方便營養品類別的第一品牌。我們的消費在第三季成長了19%。銷量成長推動了約 60% 的成長。該品牌的家庭滲透率創歷史新高,並繼續保持即飲飲料類別的領先地位,覆蓋了 21.6% 的消費者。最令人鼓舞的是,我們的忠誠度和信譽度一直保持強勁,在同類產品中名列前茅。
Retailers look to us for thought leadership and as a proven brand. We are the number 1 velocity brand with the overwhelming majority of our products in the top third of the category. Our brand continues to win incremental shelf space with Premier Protein shake TDPs up 34%. Premier Protein continues to be the go-to brand within the RTD category because of its mainstream appeal, unbelievable taste and category-leading loyalty.
零售商希望我們能夠發揮思想領導並成為公認的品牌。我們是排名第一的速度品牌,我們的絕大多數產品都位居同類產品前三分之一。我們的品牌繼續贏得增量貨架空間,Premier Protein 奶昔 TDP 上漲 34%。Premier Protein 憑藉其主流吸引力、令人難以置信的口味和領先的忠誠度繼續成為 RTD 類別中的首選品牌。
The third and final message, we've built strong momentum and we are now taking it to the next level, positioning ourselves for many years of future growth. Key enablers will be increased brand support, distribution expansion, both in and out of the aisle and innovation.
第三條也是最後一條訊息是,我們已經建立了強勁的勢頭,現在我們正將其提升到一個新的水平,為未來多年的成長做好準備。關鍵推動因素是增加品牌支援、擴大分銷範圍(包括店內店外)以及創新。
Starting with brand support. As a reminder, in late December, we launched our first media campaign since 2021, and results show a strong ROI. In July, we introduced our second wave of media, which features our updated packaging. The new packaging, which started to roll out in July brings a modern look that improved discoverability at the shelf and raises our appeal to younger consumers. Consumer and retailer feedback has been overwhelmingly positive.
從品牌支援開始。提醒一下,12 月下旬,我們啟動了自 2021 年以來的首次媒體宣傳活動,結果顯示出強勁的投資報酬率。7 月份,我們推出了第二波媒體,採用了更新的包裝。新包裝於 7 月開始推出,它具有現代感,提高了產品在貨架上的可發現性,並增強了我們對年輕消費者的吸引力。消費者和零售商的回饋非常積極。
In addition to increasing brand support, we are boosting in-store investments via promotion, display and demos. We know from experience promotions and more importantly, the displays that come along with them, are key to reaching new households and growing our business. We are aggressively pursuing merchandising in IO and throughout the store. We have established a dedicated team in addition to a new broker partner to expand our merchandising and consumer touch points across the store. These include pallet displays, end caps and more recently, single-serve bottles and coolers.
除了增加品牌支援外,我們還透過促銷、展示和演示來增加店內投資。我們從經驗中知道,促銷以及更重要的是隨之而來的展示是接觸新家庭和發展業務的關鍵。我們正在 IO 和整個商店積極開展商品銷售。除了新的經紀合作夥伴外,我們還成立了專門的團隊來擴大整個商店的商品銷售和消費者接觸點。這些包括托盤展示架、端蓋以及最近的單份瓶和冷卻器。
Distribution continues to be a major opportunity. We generate 11% of the convenient nutrition category sales, but only a 4% share of shelf. In Q4, we will continue to gain TDPs on our core products, single-serve bottles, new innovation as well as a short-term incremental pallet position at a key club retailer. We spent the last four years developing a scalable, regionally diverse co-manufacturing network and now have the capacity to aggressively pursue distribution and take advantage of these valuable retail opportunities.
分銷仍然是一個重大機會。我們佔了方便營養品類銷售額的 11%,但貨架份額僅為 4%。在第四季度,我們將繼續在核心產品、單瓶裝、新創新以及主要俱樂部零售商的短期增量托盤位置上獲得 TDP。過去四年,我們致力於開發一個可擴展、區域多樣化的聯合製造網絡,現在我們有能力積極尋求分銷並利用這些寶貴的零售機會。
Lastly, we are accelerating our efforts around innovation. Recall, we launched two new shake lines this year. The first, our Indulgent line, targets an incremental consumption occasion while still delivering on the nutritionals that our consumers expect from the premier brand. We are pleased with this line performance today. Momentum continues to build, and it recently gained distribution clubs.
最後,我們正在加快創新力度。回想一下,我們今年推出了兩條新的奶昔生產線。第一款是我們的 Indulgent 系列,針對的是增量消費場合,同時仍提供消費者對頂級品牌所期望的營養成分。我們對今天這條線路的表現感到滿意。勢頭持續增強,最近還獲得了分銷俱樂部。
The second line Almondmilk shakes, our first non-dairy protein offering launched in late June. These shakes made with real Almondmilk, deliver great-tasting nutrition without artificial colors, flavors or sweeteners. Early results are promising and marked our first step of many toward more wholesome offerings.
第二條產品線是杏仁奶昔,這是我們的第一款非乳製蛋白質產品,於六月下旬推出。這些奶昔採用真正的杏仁奶製成,提供美味的營養,不含人工色素、香料或甜味劑。早期的結果令人鼓舞,標誌著我們朝著提供更有益健康的產品邁出了第一步。
Our innovation pipeline is rich and is packed with both close in innovation that has made us successful, like flavor leadership, pack size and format expansion, as well as big-eye innovation, which will be more disruptive and focuses on incremental consumers and occasions. We are committed to bringing continued excitement to our consumers and retail partners for years to come.
我們的創新管道非常豐富,既包括讓我們獲得成功的近似創新,例如風味領導力、包裝尺寸和格式擴展,也包括更具顛覆性、專注於增量消費者和場合的「大眼」創新。我們致力於在未來幾年繼續為我們的消費者和零售合作夥伴帶來興奮。
In closing, the RTD category has strong momentum. Retailers are starting to really lean into this category. The Premier Protein brand is leading the charge as the number 1 brand with scale and a ton of upside. Premier Protein sell 36 shakes per second. But the brand still has only 20% household penetration, clearly highlighting our consumer loyalty and a long runway for growth.
最後,RTD 類別發展勢頭強勁。零售商開始真正傾向於這個類別。Premier Protein 品牌憑藉其規模和巨大的優勢,成為業界第一大品牌。Premier Protein 每秒售出 36 杯奶昔。但該品牌的家庭滲透率仍只有 20%,這清楚地凸顯了我們的消費者忠誠度和長期的成長空間。
I'm proud of our performance to date with another above-algorithm year. Our teams are energized by the momentum we've built and excited about the opportunity that is ahead of us. Our confidence in the long-term outlook for BellRing remains high.
我為我們迄今為止的表現感到自豪,我們又一年取得了超越演算法的成績。我們的團隊因我們所建立的勢頭而充滿活力,並對我們面前的機會感到興奮。我們對 BellRing 的長期前景依然充滿信心。
Thank you for your interest in the company. I will now turn the call over to Paul.
感謝您對本公司的關注。現在我將把電話轉給保羅。
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Thanks, Darcy, and good morning, everyone. As Darcy mentioned, we had another good quarter. Net sales were $548 million, up 6% over prior year, and adjusted EBITDA was $120 million. Adjusted EBITDA margins were in line with our expectations at 22%. Both net sales and adjusted EBITDA were slightly ahead of our expectations with the primary driver a heavier-than-expected e-commerce promotion load-in for Premier Protein at Dymatize, which will deload in Q4.
謝謝,達西,大家早安。正如達西所說,我們又度過了一個好的季度。淨銷售額為 5.48 億美元,比上年增長 6%,調整後 EBITDA 為 1.2 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率符合我們的預期,為 22%。淨銷售額和調整後的 EBITDA 都略高於我們的預期,主要原因是 Dymatize 的 Premier Protein 電子商務促銷力度超出預期,而該促銷力度將在第四季度減少。
Starting with brand performance. Premier Protein net sales grew 6% with volume and pricing both up 3%. Distribution gains and promotions were the main drivers of volume growth. Recall, we expected trade inventory changes to be a headwind to Q3 growth as we lapped prior year inventory replenishment and certain key retailers lowered their weeks of supply.
從品牌表現開始。Premier Protein 淨銷售額成長 6%,銷量和價格均上漲 3%。分銷收益和促銷是銷售成長的主要驅動力。回想一下,我們預計貿易庫存變化將成為第三季度成長的阻力,因為我們的庫存補充量超過了去年同期,而且某些主要零售商減少了供應週數。
These reinventory changes went as expected with the e-commerce load in a partial offset and together were a high single-digit headwind to growth. As a result, shake consumption dollar growth of 19% meaningfully outpaced shipment dollar growth in the quarter. Dymatize net sales increased 5% this quarter, lifted by strong growth for international and domestic RTD shake sales.
這些重新庫存變化與電子商務負載部分抵銷的預期一致,共同對成長造成了高個位數的阻力。因此,本季奶昔消費量成長 19%,明顯高於出貨額成長。本季 Dymatize 淨銷售額成長了 5%,這得益於國際和國內 RTD 奶昔銷售額的強勁成長。
Adjusted gross profit, which excludes mark-to-market adjustments on commodity hedges, was $192 million and grew 3% from prior year. Adjusted gross profit margin of 35.1% decreased 130 basis points. Third quarter margins faced moderate year-over-year pressure from input cost inflation and incremental trade and to a lesser extent, packaging redesign cost and the lapping of nonrecurring cost favorability in the prior year period.
調整後的毛利(不包括商品對沖的按市價調整)為 1.92 億美元,比上年增長 3%。調整後毛利率為35.1%,下降130個基點。第三季的利潤率較去年同期面臨適度的壓力,這主要源自於投入成本上漲和貿易增量,以及包裝重新設計成本和去年同期非經常性成本優惠的疊加(但程度較輕)。
SG&A expenses were $145 million and included a $68 million provision for legal matters related to our Joint Juice brand, which was discontinued in 2023. Excluding this provision, which was treated as an adjustment for non-GAAP measures, SG&A expenses were $76 million, a decrease of 40 basis points as a percentage of net sales, driven by leverage on G&A. A&P spend was 3% of net sales relatively flat compared to prior year.
銷售、一般及行政費用為 1.45 億美元,其中包括與我們的 Joint Juice 品牌相關的法律事務的 6800 萬美元撥備,該品牌於 2023 年停產。不包括這項作為非公認會計準則指標調整的撥備,銷售、一般及行政費用為 7,600 萬美元,佔淨銷售額的百分比下降了 40 個基點,這是由於銷售、一般及行政費用的槓桿作用所致。廣告與宣傳支出佔淨銷售額的 3%,與前一年相比基本持平。
Regarding the Joint Juice litigation, a settlement in principles reached during the quarter and remains subject to court approval. See our press release and 10-Q for further details on this litigation, which dates back to 2013. We expect payment on the matter sometime in fiscal 2026.
關於聯合果汁訴訟,本季已達成原則性和解,但仍需獲得法院批准。有關這起可追溯至 2013 年的訴訟的更多詳細信息,請參閱我們的新聞稿和 10-Q。我們預計此事將在 2026 財年某個時候得到付款。
Before reviewing our outlook, I would like to make a few comments on cash flow and liquidity. We generated $40 million in cash flow from operations in the third quarter and $92 million year-to-date. We continue to expect our cash flow in fiscal '25 to be in line with fiscal '24, with strong operating cash flow generation in the fourth quarter. As of June 30, net debt was $971 million and net leverage was 2 times. We anticipate net leverage will end the year below 2 times.
在回顧我們的前景之前,我想就現金流和流動性發表一些評論。我們在第三季產生了 4,000 萬美元的營運現金流,今年迄今產生了 9,200 萬美元的營運現金流。我們繼續預期 25 財年的現金流將與 24 財年保持一致,第四季將產生強勁的營運現金流。截至6月30日,淨負債為9.71億美元,淨槓桿比率為2倍。我們預計今年年底淨槓桿率將低於2倍。
With respect to our share repurchases this quarter, we bought 1.3 million shares at an average price of $65.07 per share or $83 million in total. Year-to-date, we have acquired 3.8 million shares or approximately 3% of our outstanding shares. As of June 30, our remaining share repurchase authorization was $197 million.
就本季的股票回購而言,我們以平均每股 65.07 美元的價格回購了 130 萬股,總計 8,300 萬美元。年初至今,我們已收購了 380 萬股,約占我們流通股的 3%。截至 6 月 30 日,我們剩餘的股票回購授權為 1.97 億美元。
Turning to our outlook. We tightened our fiscal '25 guidance with our midpoint for both net sales and adjusted EBITDA unchanged. Our outlook for net sales is now $2.28 billion to $2.32 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $480 million to $490 million. Our guidance implies strong top line growth of 14% to 16% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 9% to 11% with healthy adjusted EBITDA margins of 21% at the midpoint.
轉向我們的展望。我們收緊了 25 財年的指導方針,淨銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 的中點保持不變。我們目前預期淨銷售額為 22.8 億美元至 23.2 億美元,調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.8 億美元至 4.9 億美元。我們的預期意味著營業收入將強勁成長 14% 至 16%,調整後 EBITDA 將成長 9% 至 11%,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將達到健康的 21%。
Inclusive of the previously mentioned e-commerce timing shift, we expect net sales to grow 14% at the midpoint in the fourth quarter. Premier Protein is the main driver of overall growth with Dymatize and all other expected to grow mid-single digits. Premier Protein is lifted by distribution gains and incremental promotional activity as we return to historical promotional levels. This was partly offset by lower net pricing.
考慮到前面提到的電子商務時間變化,我們預計第四季中期淨銷售額將成長 14%。Premier Protein 是整體成長的主要驅動力,而 Dymatize 和其他所有品牌預計都將實現中等個位數的成長。隨著我們恢復到歷史促銷水平,Premier Protein 因分銷收益和增量促銷活動而得到提升。這在一定程度上被較低的淨定價所抵消。
Consumption dollar growth for Premier RTD shakes is expected to remain strong in the high teens to low 20%s for the quarter. Regarding fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA, we expect margins of approximately 19% at the midpoint. Compared to last year, we expect significantly lower gross margins, partially offset by meaningful SG&A leverage. For gross margins, higher promotional spend and input cost inflation are the main drivers of the decline. Protein cost headwinds will step up in the quarter for both of our powders and shakes with headwinds from elevated whey, the primary input on our powder products continuing into fiscal '26.
本季度,Premier RTD 奶昔的消費金額預計將保持強勁成長,增幅在 15% 至 20% 之間。對於第四季度調整後的 EBITDA,我們預期中間利潤率約為 19%。與去年相比,我們預期毛利率將大幅下降,但會被顯著的銷售、一般及行政費用槓桿部分抵銷。對於毛利率而言,促銷支出增加和投入成本上漲是導致毛利率下降的主要原因。本季度,我們的粉末和奶昔的蛋白質成本阻力將加大,其中乳清含量升高帶來的阻力將持續到 26 財年,而乳清含量升高是我們粉末產品的主要投入。
In addition, fourth quarter gross margins are negatively impacted by packaging redesign costs and the lapping of onetime favorability, which combined are 100 basis point headwind. SG&A dollars are expected to decrease significantly compared to a year ago with lower A&P spend and reduced G&A expense.
此外,第四季的毛利率受到包裝重新設計成本和一次性優惠的疊加的負面影響,兩者合計造成 100 個基點的不利影響。由於廣告與銷售支出以及一般及行政費用減少,預計銷售、一般及行政費用將較去年同期大幅下降。
Wrapping up with an update on tariffs, we are monitoring the latest developments and potential implications to our fiscal 2016 input cost. As you may recall, we previously discussed potential headwinds for our fiscal '26 cost of goods sold with the higher tariffs impacting our dairy protein source from New Zealand and the EU.
總結關稅的最新情況,我們正在監測最新發展及其對 2016 財年投入成本的潛在影響。您可能還記得,我們之前討論過 26 財年銷售成本可能面臨的阻力,即更高的關稅影響了我們來自紐西蘭和歐盟的乳製品蛋白質來源。
Based on the policy communicated last week, the overall tariff impact for BellRing has increased slightly with 15% tariff rates and active for those countries. While we are evaluating ways to mitigate these costs, we continue to expect a low single-digit impact for our fiscal '26 total cost of goods sold with no tariff impact on our fiscal '25 results.
根據上週傳達的政策,BellRing 的整體關稅影響略有增加,這些國家的關稅稅率為 15%,並且有效。雖然我們正在評估降低這些成本的方法,但我們仍然預計關稅將對 26 財年的總銷售成本產生較低的個位數影響,並且不會對 25 財年的業績產生影響。
In closing, we are pleased with our year-to-date performance. Our long-term prospects remain bright, and we are well positioned to close out the year.
最後,我們對今年迄今的表現感到滿意。我們的長期前景依然光明,我們已做好充分準備結束今年的任期。
I will now turn it over to the operator for questions.
現在我將把時間交給接線員來回答問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Andrew Lazar, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
So as you listed a bunch of reasons why you remain confident in the long-term potential of both the convenient nutrition category and Premier Protein's role within it. I think I remember last year on the fiscal 3Q call, I think you broadly addressed some expectations for the coming year. And I was wondering if you'd be able to -- admittedly on a preliminary basis, provide some initial color on your thinking for fiscal '26.
因此,您列舉了許多理由來說明為什麼您對便利營養品類和 Premier Protein 在其中的作用的長期潛力仍然充滿信心。我想我記得去年第三季財報電話會議上,您大致談到了對來年的一些期望。我想知道您是否能夠——誠然,只是初步地,對 26 財年的想法提供一些初步的說明。
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So it is really too early to talk about '26. We're deep in our planning process. Historically, we have talked a little bit about '26 on this call. But candidly, it is a lot easier to estimate demand when your capacity constrained versus -- and we're not now. So we are -- we kind of have to follow the planning process a little more religiously.
是的。所以現在談論‘26’還為時過早。我們的規劃過程正在進行中。從歷史上看,我們在這次電話會議上談論了一些有關 26 年的事情。但坦白說,當你的產能受到限制時,估計需求要容易得多——而我們現在還沒有。所以我們必須更嚴格地遵循規劃流程。
So -- there are a couple of uncertain variables. Obviously, we just started one of our biggest promotions with club, and we have another one leader. So we want to see how those go as well as we've -- we're still assessing some -- what happens with tariffs. So there are just a few pieces.
所以——存在一些不確定的變數。顯然,我們剛剛與俱樂部開始了我們最大的促銷活動之一,並且我們又有了一位領導者。因此,我們想看看這些進展如何,我們仍在評估關稅會發生什麼。所以只有幾件。
Overall, we feel great about the long-term opportunity of the business for all the reasons that I went through in my scripted remarks. I really think that -- not only are we unconstrained from a capacity standpoint. Our metrics are fantastic. And I really feel like we're at a tipping point with retailers that they're really getting behind the category, and we're leading the charge. So I feel great about the opportunity just in the middle of our planning process, and we'll have more information in our next call.
總體而言,由於我在講稿中詳細闡述的所有原因,我們對該業務的長期發展前景感到非常樂觀。我確實認為——我們不僅在能力方面不受限制。我們的指標非常棒。我真的覺得我們正處於零售商的轉折點,他們真正支持這個類別,而我們正在引領潮流。因此,我對我們規劃過程中的這個機會感到非常高興,我們將在下次電話會議中提供更多資訊。
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Kaumil Gajrawala.
考米爾·加杰拉瓦拉。
Kaumil Gajrawala - Equity Analyst
Kaumil Gajrawala - Equity Analyst
A couple of -- just a couple of questions. The first is third quarter came in maybe a little bit better than expected when adjusting for some of the destocking issues. And -- but you've narrowed your guide as opposed to maybe coming in at the higher end, given all of the statistics and all the things that you talked about the same of the momentum that you have. So just curious why narrowing as opposed to maybe pushing towards the higher end?
有幾個——只是幾個問題。首先,在調整一些去庫存問題後,第三季的表現可能會比預期好一些。而且 — — 但是考慮到所有的統計數據和您所談論的與您所擁有的勢頭相同的所有事情,您已經縮小了您的指導範圍,而不是可能處於較高端。所以只是好奇為什麼要縮小而不是推向更高的範圍?
And then maybe I don't have the scales correct on your slide 9, but consumption being kind of in line with shipments for 3Q. I might have expected consumption to be much higher given there was some destock in the third quarter. So I just want to understand if I'm just seeing that wrong or if there's something else in there?
然後,也許我在第 9 張投影片上的比例不正確,但消費量與第三季的出貨量是一致的。考慮到第三季的去庫存現象,我原本預期消費量會更高。所以我只是想知道我是不是看錯了,還是裡面有其他東西?
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. I'll start with your first question and then pass it to Paul for the second. So with any quarter, there are many puts and takes, but they're all pretty minor. So I'll just walk you through some of the puts and takes just to give you a sense. Yes, Q3 consumption was slightly higher than we expected, mainly it was actually pricing because of mix, less volume. But let's call that a couple of million dollars benefit. So that's one piece.
當然。我先回答你的第一個問題,然後交給保羅回答第二個問題。因此,在任何一個季度,都會有很多損失和得失,但這些損失和得失都很小。因此,我將向您介紹其中的一些要點,以便讓您有所了解。是的,第三季的消費量略高於我們的預期,主要是因為混合、較少,所以定價實際上較高。但我們姑且稱之為幾百萬美元的收益吧。這就是其中一件事。
The second piece was -- I said this in my prepared remarks, we gained a short-term club palette. So that added a couple -- about two months benefit. One was promoted. So that -- we call that about $10 million benefit. So what offset that was when we gained that short-term club pallet, several other competitors gained short-term space as well.
第二點是——我在準備好的發言中說過,我們獲得了一個短期俱樂部調色板。這樣就增加了大約兩個月的福利。其中一人晉升。所以——我們稱之為約 1000 萬美元的收益。那麼,當我們獲得短期俱樂部托盤時,其他幾個競爭對手也獲得了短期空間。
So we're assuming this increases some competitive pressure in club and that reverses the first two gains. So again, this is -- these are small numbers. It's only about 2% of our quarter, but that is the reason. So we've got some ups and some downs but that is the reason why we ended up lowering our brand.
因此,我們假設這會增加俱樂部的一些競爭壓力,並扭轉前兩項收益。所以再說一遍,這些都是很小的數字。這僅占我們季度的 2% 左右,但這就是原因。因此,我們經歷了一些起伏,但這也是我們最終降低品牌形象的原因。
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
And then on your second question, regarding our supplemental schedule, slide 9. So yes, you're correct. We expected consumption to slightly outpaced shipments more than it did. They came in more in line. And the primary driver is the e-commerce heavier-than-expected load-in that we saw in the third quarter. So that is masking the deload to some degree that we saw in club and other retailers.
然後關於你的第二個問題,關於我們的補充時間表,投影片 9。是的,你是對的。我們預計消費量將略微超過出貨量。他們排起了長隊。主要驅動因素是我們在第三季看到的電子商務裝載量超出預期。因此,這在一定程度上掩蓋了我們在俱樂部和其他零售商中看到的減負現象。
On the last call, we called out obviously an expected deload in the quarter. That played out exactly as we expected. We feel good about where our trade inventory levels are for those key customers. But that's the main reason is, yes, we expected it to be slightly lower as well, meaning consumption over shipments, and it was masked a bit by this e-commerce load in that we expect to fully load -- deload in Q4. We think it's purely timing.
在上次電話會議中,我們顯然表示本季預計會出現減載。事情正如我們所預期的。我們對這些關鍵客戶的貿易庫存水準感到滿意。但這主要是因為,是的,我們預計它也將略低一些,這意味著消費量超過了出貨量,而電子商務的負載稍微掩蓋了這一點,我們預計第四季度將完全負載 - 卸載。我們認為這純粹是時機問題。
Kaumil Gajrawala - Equity Analyst
Kaumil Gajrawala - Equity Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
David Palmer, Evercore ISI.
大衛·帕爾默,Evercore ISI。
David Palmer - Equity Analyst
David Palmer - Equity Analyst
I just want to follow up on Andrew's question because obviously, not commenting on it, given all the mixture of increased competition, but also your distribution, innovation, marketing drivers. There's a lot of things for us to consider here. And obviously, the category remains vibrant. I wonder, is your long-term targeted 10% to 12% a good starting point for us to be thinking about in the high single-digit type category growth.
我只是想跟進安德魯的問題,因為顯然,考慮到競爭加劇,以及分銷、創新和行銷驅動因素,我不會對此發表評論。這裡有很多事情要考慮。顯然,該類別仍然充滿活力。我想知道,您設定的 10% 到 12% 的長期目標是否是我們考慮高個位數類別成長的一個好起點。
And -- do you think you'll be gaining share this year -- this next year? Or do you think that that's maybe not as much in the cards? And just any sort of proportions comments that would speak to how we should be thinking about the category and your growth within the category would be helpful.
您認為今年或明年您的市佔率會增加嗎?或者您認為這種可能性不大?任何比例的評論,只要能說明我們應該如何看待這個類別以及您在這個類別中的成長,都會很有幫助。
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I mean I think we feel great about the opportunity still. I think we still feel good about our long-term algorithm. I think that, in general, many of the -- all the things that we've laid out kind of our -- in our investor presentation are very relevant. I think that -- it's a hot category, everything I said in my scripted remarks. It's a hot category. We're the number 1 player. We are -- when you're -- we -- I talked a little bit about the inevitability of increased competition.
是的。我的意思是,我認為我們仍然對這個機會感到很高興。我認為我們仍然對我們的長期演算法感到滿意。我認為,總的來說,我們在投資者介紹中列出的許多內容都是非常相關的。我認為——這是一個熱門類別,我在我的講稿中所說的一切都是熱門類別。這是一個熱門類別。我們是第一名的球員。我們——當你——我們——我談了一點關於競爭加劇的必然性。
And I think that it is actually really good for the category. And so I think that all of -- we're seeing some real momentum with our retailers. I think this is the first time I've talked about us being category captains. This has been a strong push for the last year. And it's really nice to see and it's -- and we're having some big impact. And so all of these things -- and then, of course, our innovation.
我認為這對該類別來說確實非常好。所以我認為,我們看到我們的零售商正在出現一些真正的發展勢頭。我想這是我第一次談論我們是類別隊長。這是去年的一次強勁推動。看到這一點真的很高興,而且我們正在產生巨大的影響。所有這些事情——當然還有我們的創新。
And this is the first year we've launched two new lines in one year. And it's really starting to gather some movement. We're getting on shelves. It's the velocities are turning where we started. So there's just a lot of pieces. And I think that, that is why we just -- we need a couple more months to work through it. So we can give you a good number.
這是我們第一次在一年內推出兩條新產品線。它確實開始聚集一些動靜。我們正在上架。速度正在從我們開始的地方轉變。所以有很多碎片。我認為這就是為什麼我們還需要幾個月的時間來解決這個問題。所以我們可以給你一個很好的數字。
David Palmer - Equity Analyst
David Palmer - Equity Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的梅根·克拉普。
Megan Clap - Analyst
Megan Clap - Analyst
Maybe I wanted to ask the competition question maybe a little bit differently. And Darcy, you touched a bit on it in your prepared remarks, but I'd love to just hear your updated thoughts in terms of how you're evaluating the single-serve opportunity and kind of your desire to move the brand into the mainstream beverage aisle as a way to reach new customers, maybe as competition is getting a little bit more fierce, if that's an okay word and kind of your main club channel.
也許我想以稍微不同的方式詢問比賽問題。達西,你在準備好的發言中稍微提到了這一點,但我很想聽聽你的最新想法,即你如何評估單份飲料的機會,以及你想將品牌推向主流飲料市場以吸引新客戶的願望,也許因為競爭越來越激烈,如果這個詞可以接受的話,這也是你的主要俱樂部渠道。
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure, Megan. I'm going to start with the club competition because I think there's some context that might be helpful. And then I'll end with just our efforts around where we want to be in the store, what's important and then lastly single serve. So if I don't hit all those points, tell me. Okay.
當然,梅根。我將從俱樂部比賽開始,因為我認為一些背景資訊可能會有所幫助。最後,我將談談我們在商店中想要達到的目標、重要性以及最後的單一服務等方面的努力。所以如果我沒有達到所有這些要點,請告訴我。好的。
So let me -- first with the kind of club situation because it's kind of unique. So I mentioned that when we gained our short-term club palette, several other competitors also gain some space. So one of our key club retailers decided to increase the RTD and powder floor space in Q3 and for a short-term basis.
那麼,讓我先談談俱樂部的情況,因為它有點獨特。所以我提到,當我們獲得短期俱樂部調色板時,其他幾個競爭對手也獲得了一些空間。因此,我們的一個主要俱樂部零售商決定在第三季短期內增加 RTD 和粉末地板面積。
It's a temporary expansion to fill spots previously meant for tariff-impacted categories. So it's a little bit unique. It's supposed to last until the end of the calendar year. So it is -- we gained some space, but also some competitors gained some space because they had all this new space to fill. So it's a little bit of a unique scenario, and I think that's what I think people are -- we're seeing the increased competition.
這是臨時擴展,旨在填補先前受關稅影響的類別的空缺。所以它有點獨特。預計該活動將持續到今年年底。事實是——我們獲得了一些空間,但一些競爭對手也獲得了一些空間,因為他們有這些新的空間需要填補。所以這是一個有點獨特的場景,我認為這就是人們所認為的——我們看到競爭日益激烈。
I will say that I was in a club store this weekend. And it is really -- it is great for the category. When I was walking around I bet you 60% to 70% of the parts in the store had high protein shakes in the cart, which -- and people -- it's completely mainstreamed. And so I truly believe that the competition is good for the category.
我要說的是,這個週末我去了一傢俱樂部商店。這對於該類別來說確實很棒。當我四處走動時,我敢打賭,商店裡 60% 到 70% 的商品購物車裡都有高蛋白奶昔,而這種奶昔——以及人們——已經完全成為主流。因此我堅信競爭對於這個類別來說是有利的。
And I think that this is sort of a unique situation where the competition is, especially in that channel is kind of increasing for a short period of time because of this unique situation and then will come down a little bit. So it's a little different in other channels where you have to wait for resets, and those just happened a little more slowly. So that's one piece that I think is important context.
我認為這是一種獨特的情況,由於這種獨特的情況,競爭,特別是在該渠道,在短時間內會有所增加,然後會稍微下降。因此,在其他管道中情況會有所不同,您必須等待重置,而且重置速度會慢一些。所以我認為這是重要的背景之一。
The second piece is just our conversations with retailers about where we want to be in the store and the opportunity. And what I would say is the guidance we are giving retailers is it's less about where you are in the store. We want to be in high-traffic area. And the category needs to be distinctive from the rest of the store. Meaning, it needs to be -- have strong signage, you need to clearly see that it's convenient nutrition. It has to have education on -- to help consumers understand what products they should try -- and then these kind of displays outside of the aisle are very important to disrupt consumers in their kind of normal shopping behavior.
第二部分是我們與零售商就我們想在商店中佔據什麼位置以及機會進行的對話。我想說的是,我們為零售商提供的指導與你在商店中的位置關係不大。我們想位於交通繁忙的地區。而且該類別需要與商店的其他類別有所區別。意思是,它需要有明顯的標誌,你需要清楚地看到它是方便的營養品。它必須進行教育——幫助消費者了解他們應該嘗試哪些產品——然後,過道外的這種展示對於擾亂消費者的正常購物行為非常重要。
We are actively -- so in addition to the work we're doing with our retailers around expanding the category, potentially moving the category, merchandising it better and displaying it throughout the store, we are --. I think the singles -- our singles efforts is going to be a big focus next year, which will be around displays throughout the store of singles. Some of those will be ambient because we know that, that works very well.
我們正在積極地——除了與零售商合作擴大產品類別、潛在地移動產品類別、更好地推銷產品以及在整個商店展示產品之外,我們還--.我認為單曲——我們的單曲宣傳工作明年將成為重點,重點將圍繞整個商店的單曲展示。其中一些將是環境因素,因為我們知道,這樣做效果很好。
Some of them will be in coolers. We've had some success in food accounts where we're getting in coolers, which is nice. So I think that next year we'll be focused on that -- we believe that -- I mean, this will be the first year that we're focused on it. So -- and then I think the next step would be getting after that DSD opportunity. There is -- and then -- and really, you need the DSD opportunity for convenience.
其中一些會放在冷藏箱裡。我們在食品帳戶中取得了一些成功,我們獲得了冷藏箱,這很好。所以我認為明年我們會專注於此——我們相信——我的意思是,這將是我們專注於此的第一年。所以——我認為下一步就是抓住 DSD 機會。有 — — 然後 — — 事實上,為了方便起見,您需要 DSD 機會。
Megan Clap - Analyst
Megan Clap - Analyst
Okay. Awesome. Thank you.
好的。驚人的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Jim Salera, Stephens.
吉姆·薩萊拉、史蒂芬斯。
Jim Salera - Equity Analyst
Jim Salera - Equity Analyst
A lot of questions on competition already. And if you'll indulge me in asking the other one kind of a different way. With industry capacity in a better spot and that may be opening the door to newer upstart brands coming into the category. Can you offer any thoughts on how we should think about promotional cadence going forward?
關於競爭已經有很多問題。如果您允許我以不同的方式詢問另一個問題。隨著行業產能的提高,這可能會為新興品牌進入該領域打開大門。您能否就我們應該如何考慮未來的促銷節奏提出一些看法?
Just conceptually, I think it would make sense at some of these other brands launched, they would probably have so heavy promo efforts behind that and maybe have several launching, maybe a kind of a sequential cadence, it might end up where the promotional calendar for the category as a whole is pretty packed for a year.
從概念上講,我認為這對其他一些品牌的推出來說是有意義的,他們可能會在背後投入大量的促銷力度,可能會推出幾次新產品,可能是一種連續的節奏,最終可能會導致整個類別的促銷日程在一年內排得滿滿的。
Can you -- just any thoughts around -- does that mean that you need to increase or extend your promotional cadence? Do you feel that maybe other brands are going after different customers? Just any details you can offer about how we should think about that going forward?
您能否——只是任何想法——這是否意味著您需要增加或延長您的促銷節奏?您是否覺得其他品牌可能在爭取不同的客戶?您能否提供一些關於我們未來應該如何考慮這個問題的詳細資訊?
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I think our promotional cadence has been pretty consistent. I think now, obviously, last quarter, we announced that we up-leveled our Q4 club promotions. And that really got us back to what we used to do before capacity constraints. So when you look at the quarter Q1 for us, that's October, November, December. That's a low promotional period historically for the category as well as for us.
是的。我認為我們的促銷節奏相當一致。我認為現在,顯然,上個季度,我們宣布升級了第四季度俱樂部促銷活動。這確實讓我們回到了容量限制之前的狀態。因此,當您查看我們的第一季時,那是十月、十一月、十二月。從歷史上看,對於該類別以及我們來說,這都是一個促銷低迷的時期。
The biggest promotional period is that January, February, March, that will continue being it. It's when most new people enter into the category. And then there are some usually small -- some minor promotions in Q3 and then another kind of big promotional period in the back-to-school, back to sports time frame, which is our Q4.
最大的促銷期是一月、二月、三月,將繼續如此。這是大多數新人進入該類別的時候。然後通常會有一些小型促銷活動——在第三季度會有一些小型促銷活動,然後在返校、恢復體育運動的時間範圍內,也就是我們的第四季度,還會有另一個大型促銷期。
So I don't expect -- I think that is -- that has been the promotional kind of cadence ever since I've been in the category. And I think that is, and that's really just -- it's following the consumer behavior. And that's -- this last year -- or this year '25, was our first year of kind of full promotion. And like I said, getting back to what we used to do pre-capacity constraints. So I think that will be the same going forward.
所以我並不期望——我認為——自從我進入這個行業以來,這一直是這種促銷節奏。我認為,這實際上只是——它遵循消費者的行為。這就是──去年──或者說今年 25 年,是我們全面推廣的第一年。就像我說的,回到我們過去所做的預容量限制。所以我認為未來情況也會一樣。
Operator
Operator
Yasmine Deswandhy, Bank of America.
美國銀行的 Yasmine Deswandhy。
Yasmine Deswandhy - Analyst
Yasmine Deswandhy - Analyst
So I just wanted to follow up on Andrew's question earlier and maybe phrase it a little differently. Obviously, understanding that you won't get into details about next year until later this year. I think in the past, you've alluded that on algo growth could be in the books for next year, at least on top line. You'll be lapping this year's innovation, incremental promotions. You've launched 2 new lines this year.
所以我只是想跟進安德魯之前提出的問題,也許用稍微不同的方式來表達。顯然,我知道直到今年晚些時候你才會詳細了解明年的情況。我認為,過去您曾暗示,演算法的成長可能會在明年實現,至少在營收方面是如此。您將會感受到今年的創新和漸進式促銷。今年你們推出了兩條新產品線。
So I'm not asking for any numbers, but just kind of qualitatively, how much confidence do you have in achieving that on algo growth? And what are the qualitative things that we should consider for next year, just on top line?
所以我並不是問任何數字,而只是從品質上詢問,您對實現演算法成長有多大信心?那麼,對於明年的頂線而言,我們應該考慮哪些定性因素呢?
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I think we feel good about it. I think that this is -- if you think of the last several years we have been lapping capacity constraints in some way. So I think that we have been adding incrementally different demand drivers. We started off adding back our full line. Even as close as last year, we still had some out of stocks that we were lapping. This -- we then added promotion. We started with club promotions and we added FDM promotion. This is the first year we added back our marketing, our marketing drivers.
是的,我認為我們對此感覺很好。我認為這是——如果你想想過去幾年我們一直在以某種方式克服產能限制。所以我認為我們一直在逐步增加不同的需求驅動因素。我們開始重新增加我們的全線產品。即使與去年同期相比,我們仍然有一些缺貨的情況。這——我們隨後增加了促銷。我們從俱樂部促銷開始,然後添加了 FDM 促銷。這是我們重新增加行銷和行銷驅動力的第一年。
So I think this, in '25 is the first year that we had all of our demand drivers. So as we go on to '26 and beyond, we are kind of back to normal. And so I think that as you look at that, I think that we have said that our kind of long-term commitment is 10% to 12% top line at 18% to 20% margins. So I think that, that is the expectation. And -- but I think that when you look at it, when you zoom out and you remember what we've been doing for the last several years, I think it gives good context to where we are going forward.
所以我認為,25 年是我們擁有所有需求驅動因素的第一年。因此,當我們進入 26 年及以後,我們就會恢復正常。所以我認為,正如您所看到的,我們已經說過,我們的長期承諾是 10% 到 12% 的營收和 18% 到 20% 的利潤率。所以我認為這是期望。而且——但我認為,當你審視它,當你縮小視野並回想過去幾年我們一直在做的事情時,我認為它為我們未來的發展提供了良好的背景。
And like I said, I think that -- I think what is exciting about what's going on is when you have an explosive category and you're the number 1 player, if you look at any other category that grew high-growth category, the number 1 player definitely benefits, and we're seeing that.
就像我說的,我認為——我認為令人興奮的是,當你擁有一個爆炸式增長的類別並且你是第一名的玩家時,如果你看看任何其他高增長類別,第一名的玩家肯定會受益,我們看到了這一點。
And that's why we think it's really important to be category captain and help really mold the future and really go after these incremental displays and being able to put our fingerprint on the assortment and -- or at least be able to give them thought leadership so we can give them guidance about where the consumer is going and how we can help.
這就是為什麼我們認為成為品類領袖並幫助真正塑造未來、真正追求這些增量展示並能夠在產品分類上留下我們的印記非常重要——或者至少能夠為他們提供思想領導力,以便我們能夠為他們提供關於消費者走向和我們如何提供幫助的指導。
Yasmine Deswandhy - Analyst
Yasmine Deswandhy - Analyst
Okay. Great. Thank you so much.
好的。偉大的。太感謝了。
Operator
Operator
Brian Holland, D.A. Davidson.
布萊恩霍蘭德、D.A.戴維森。
Brian Holland - Analyst
Brian Holland - Analyst
A lot of questions. I think on the numbers have sort of been addressed to the extent that they can. So maybe just asking -- obviously, there have been a lot of questions about the competition as well. I'm just curious, Darcy, if you could sort of frame for us how you think about the value proposition of Premier Protein. And for context, obviously, we have new innovation, and this is a category that has and will continue to bring a lot of innovation to market.
有很多問題。我認為數字問題已經得到盡可能的解決。所以也許只是問——顯然,關於比賽也有很多問題。我只是好奇,達西,你能否為我們闡述一下你對 Premier Protein 的價值主張的看法。就背景而言,顯然我們有新的創新,這個類別已經並將繼續為市場帶來大量創新。
And so as consumer taste and preferences evolve, the positioning of Premier Protein, the value proposition of that product vis-a-vis some of the other products and macros that are out there available to the consumer. What gives you the confidence from that standpoint that you can hold or grow your share going forward?
因此,隨著消費者口味和偏好的演變,Premier Protein 的定位以及該產品相對於消費者可以買到的其他一些產品和宏量營養素的價值主張也在不斷變化。從這個角度來看,是什麼讓您有信心在未來保住或增加自己的份額?
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Great question. Okay, value proposition. Why do consumers love Premier? Approachable positioning, fantastic taste and flavors and great nutritionals, like the trifecta. A key part of fantastic taste is this kind of thicker milk shake decadent consistency and a wide variety of flavors. So consumers are drinking this product -- our product every day. They get tired of chocolate and vanilla. They weren't -- to try root beer float and pumpkin spice and lemon bar and all of these other things that are super exciting. They will not sacrifice taste for anything. So that is the value proposition. That is what has made Premier so successful and will continue.
當然。好問題。好的,價值主張。為什麼消費者喜愛 Premier?平易近人的定位、絕佳的口感和風味以及豐富的營養,就像三重奏一樣。美妙味道的關鍵部分是這種較濃稠的奶昔的濃鬱稠度和多種多樣的口味。所以消費者每天都在喝這種產品──我們的產品。他們厭倦了巧克力和香草。他們沒有嘗試根汁汽水漂浮物、南瓜香料、檸檬條以及所有這些超級令人興奮的東西。他們不會為了任何事而犧牲品味。這就是價值主張。這就是 Premier 取得如此成功並將繼續成功的原因。
What we have and when we kind of map out -- we've done a lot of work on where the white space in the category is and kind of where the biggest growth potential big buckets are. And I think that we feel that there's opportunity in -- and again, without going into kind of our innovation strategy.
我們擁有什麼以及我們何時規劃出來——我們已經做了很多工作來確定該類別中的空白在哪裡以及最大的成長潛力在哪裡。我認為我們感覺到其中存在機會——而且,無需深入探討我們的創新策略。
But like we think that -- we are in a great space in that when we map out what consumers want, and I have exact percentages, but most want thick decadent shakes that fill you up. Some want kind of thinner products that are -- that can be consumed sort of more as a beverage. Most want kind of this idea of around 30 grams of protein, let's call it, 20 to 30 grams of protein. Some want higher or lower. Most want sweet, some want sweet.
但就像我們所想的——當我們了解消費者的需求時,我們處於一個很好的空間,我有確切的百分比,但大多數人想要濃稠的、能讓人飽腹的奶昔。有些人想要更稀的產品,可以當飲料來飲用。大多數人想要大約 30 克蛋白質,我們稱之為 20 到 30 克蛋白質。有些人想要更高或更低。大多數人想要甜的,有些人想要甜的。
So I'm giving you this most some because it starts mapping out what the future of this category is going to be. The beauty of a kind of young category is it starts with a few brands and a few products. And then it starts expanding into -- you go after the most and then you start expanding different line extensions and even other some brands going after some of the other pieces. And so I think that some of the new -- I mean, I'll use ultra-filtered milk as an example.
所以我給你這個大部分內容,因為它開始描繪出這個類別的未來將會是什麼樣子。年輕類別的美妙之處在於它從幾個品牌和幾種產品開始。然後它開始擴展到——你追求最多的,然後你開始擴展不同的線路延伸,甚至其他一些品牌追求其他一些部分。所以我認為一些新的——我的意思是,我將以超濾牛奶為例。
From a product standpoint, it is much thinner. It's much more like high-protein milk, whereas our product is much more of a milk shake. So our consumer loves that thicker decadent shake type experience because it fills them up. And so going to like a thinner product, there's not a great trade for a loyal Premier consumer.
從產品角度來看,它要薄得多。它更像是高蛋白牛奶,而我們的產品更像是奶昔。因此,我們的消費者喜歡這種更濃稠的奶昔體驗,因為它能讓他們感到飽足。因此,對於忠實的 Premier 消費者來說,選擇更薄的產品並不是一筆很好的交易。
However, there's an opportunity for that. And so I think that's how we're kind of looking at the innovation. But we feel like we're in a great place because as we look at -- there are a lot more of those people who are looking for great tasting, approachable positioning, great nutritionals and that's part of our marketing campaign, that's part of getting out of the aisle that's part of all -- even from the backbone of some of our innovation strategy.
然而,這是一個機會。所以我認為這就是我們看待創新的方式。但我們覺得我們處於一個非常好的位置,因為正如我們所見——越來越多的人正在尋找美味、平易近人的定位和豐富的營養,而這正是我們行銷活動的一部分,也是走出過道的一部分,甚至是我們創新策略的支柱。
Brian Holland - Analyst
Brian Holland - Analyst
Appreciate the color. Thank you.
欣賞顏色。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Peter Grom, UBS.
瑞銀的 Peter Grom。
Peter Grom - Analyst
Peter Grom - Analyst
Good morning, everyone. A lot of questions on the top line. And so maybe just some questions on profit. So Paul, I think you mentioned that the fourth quarter gross margin is going to be under significant pressure. Is there any way you can put some guardrails on that?
大家早安。上面有很多問題。所以也許只是一些關於利潤的問題。保羅,我想你提到第四季的毛利率將面臨巨大壓力。有什麼辦法可以對此採取一些防護措施嗎?
And then I guess related, obviously, eating the year with some margin pressure here, and I know we'll get building last to '26 in a few months. But can you maybe just help us understand of these headwinds you're dealing with in the fourth quarter, what do you view as transitory versus what should linger as we look at.
然後我想,顯然,今年的利潤率會有一定的壓力,我知道我們會在幾個月內完成最後的建設,直到 26 年。但是,您能否幫助我們了解您在第四季度面臨的這些不利因素,您認為哪些是暫時的,哪些是應該持續存在的。
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Sure. So from a Q4 perspective, you're correct, we expect EBITDA margins to decline about 300 basis points versus a year ago. We do expect SG&A dollars to be lower. So it's significant leverage on SG&A greater than 300 basis points. So it's really gross margins that are declining from there.
當然。因此,從第四季度的角度來看,您說得對,我們預計 EBITDA 利潤率將比去年同期下降約 300 個基點。我們確實預期銷售、一般及行政費用將會降低。因此,銷售、一般及行政費用的槓桿率顯著高於 300 個基點。因此,毛利率確實從那時起開始下降。
There are two biggest pieces, which are promo. So we're layering on, obviously, promo compared to a year ago, especially in club. So that is the biggest headwind, I guess, to last year. And then we are seeing some inflation on proteins and input cost. Proteins do step up from the third quarter, and it's a headwind to the fourth quarter for both shakes and powders.
其中最大的兩件是宣傳品。因此,與一年前相比,我們顯然加大了促銷力度,尤其是在俱樂部。所以我想,這是去年最大的阻力。然後我們看到蛋白質和投入成本出現了一些通貨膨脹。從第三季開始,蛋白質的銷售量確實有所成長,這對奶昔和粉末的第四季來說是一個阻力。
And then one last piece, which is a lesser impact is that we do have some one-timers in the quarter on gross margin, which is related to the packaging redesign costs that we've called out previously, and then we are lapping some favorability of some nonrecurring costs. So that's about 100 basis point headwind. So again, promo and [COGS] are the biggest pieces.
最後一點,影響較小的一點是,本季我們的毛利率確實有一些一次性變化,這與我們之前提到的包裝重新設計成本有關,然後我們正在考慮一些非經常性成本的有利影響。因此,這大約是 100 個基點的逆風。所以,再次強調,促銷和 [COGS] 是最大的部分。
I called out in my prepared remarks that on whey protein in particular, which is the input cost on our powder business for both Dymatize and Premier, we do expect that headwind to continue into fiscal '26. So we continue to expect that whey proteins will be elevated. It will be a headwind to next year. And so we're looking at, obviously mitigating efforts on that.
我在準備好的發言中指出,特別是乳清蛋白,這是我們 Dymatize 和 Premier 粉末業務的投入成本,我們確實預計這種不利因素將持續到 26 財年。因此我們繼續預期乳清蛋白的含量將會升高。這對明年來說將是一個不利因素。因此,我們正在考慮,顯然要減輕這方面的努力。
And then really, again, not getting into '26 much at this point, but tariffs, I think, is the other piece as we go into next year that we've called out, and I mentioned it again in my prepared remarks that we do expect some cost headwinds from tariffs to impact us in fiscal '26. We won't be able to fully mitigate them by just changing suppliers or changing ingredients. So there will be some headwinds that we will work on.
然後,實際上,現在我們還沒有深入討論 26 年的問題,但我認為,關稅是我們進入明年時要討論的另一個問題,我在準備好的發言中再次提到,我們確實預計關稅帶來的一些成本阻力會在 26 財年對我們產生影響。僅透過更換供應商或改變原料,我們無法完全緩解這些問題。因此,我們將會遇到一些困難,需要努力克服。
But we also have a number of opportunities, we think, to pull cost out of our products out of our supply chain. So that's a big effort for '26 that we're working on. And then I do expect we would see some G&A leverage as we continue to grow the top line. So those are kind of the bigger pieces as we think through '26.
但我們認為,我們也有很多機會從我們的產品供應鏈中降低成本。因此,這是我們為 26 年所做的一項重大努力。然後我確實預計,隨著我們繼續增加收入,我們會看到一些 G&A 槓桿。因此,當我們思考 26 年時,這些都是更重要的部分。
Peter Grom - Analyst
Peter Grom - Analyst
Got it. Thanks so much. I'll pass on.
知道了。非常感謝。我會傳承下去。
Operator
Operator
Matt Smith, Stifel.
馬特史密斯,Stifel。
Matthew Smith - Analyst
Matthew Smith - Analyst
Darcy, you talked about the competitive environment. Maybe in the more near term, can you provide more details about your expectations for the fall shelf reset?
達西,您談到了競爭環境。也許在更近期,您能否提供更多有關秋季貨架重置預期的細節?
And as the category enters this new wave of competition, how do you measure success from here from a market share perspective? And has the view of the required level of A&P for BellRing changed in this new -- in this more competitive environment.
隨著該類別進入新一輪競爭,從市場份額的角度來看,您如何衡量成功?在這個新的、競爭更加激烈的環境中,對 BellRing 所需的 A&P 水平的看法是否發生了變化?
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We feel good about the fall resets, so we'll be continuing to expand distribution TDPs on Premier Protein, both like --. So single-serve, we're getting more expansion of single-serve than our core products as well as our innovation. And I mentioned that temporary incremental pallet in club. So feel great about the fall resets that are coming up. So that was one piece.
我們對秋季重置感到滿意,因此我們將繼續擴大 Premier Protein 的分銷 TDP,例如--.因此,對於單人份產品而言,我們在單人份產品方面的擴展比我們的核心產品和創新更廣泛。我在俱樂部裡提到了臨時增量托盤。因此,對於即將到來的秋季重置,請感到很高興。這就是其中一件。
The market share -- this is the beauty of a growing category and a low household penetration category. If you actually look at our market share over time, we've actually grown very well and had a pretty stable market share. And so I think that we expect, I think, that it is not -- our growth isn't predicated on increasing market share necessarily. We can actually be quite successful in just holding market share. So I think that, that is one piece. And then what was the third question?
市場佔有率-這是一個不斷增長的類別和低家庭滲透率類別的魅力所在。如果你實際觀察我們一段時間內的市場份額,你會發現我們實際上發展得很好,而且市場份額相當穩定。因此,我認為我們的成長並不一定取決於市場佔有率的增加。事實上,只要我們保持市場份額,我們就能取得相當大的成功。所以我認為這是其中一部分。那麼第三個問題是什麼?
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
About marketing spend.
關於行銷支出。
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Do you want to take that?
你想拿走那個嗎?
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Sure. Yeah. So Matt, from a marketing spend perspective, we have called out previously that we would expect over time to increase our marketing spend from where it's been. As Darcy said, this year, we layered on promotional activity, but we do think that going forward. Again, I don't think we're talking about big changes, but we would expect that we could lean a little bit further into marketing spend as a percent of sales. But mostly that should get offset as we get G&A leverage as well. But to answer your question, yeah, I would think that our A&P spend would slowly go up over time.
當然。是的。因此,馬特,從行銷支出的角度來看,我們之前已經提出,我們預計隨著時間的推移,我們的行銷支出將會增加。正如達西所說,今年我們開展了多層級的促銷活動,但我們確實認為未來還會繼續發展。再說一次,我不認為我們正在談論大的變化,但我們預計我們可以進一步傾向於將行銷支出佔銷售額的百分比提高一些。但大多數情況下,這應該會被抵消,因為我們也獲得了 G&A 槓桿。但要回答你的問題,是的,我認為我們的廣告和宣傳支出會隨著時間的推移而緩慢增加。
Matthew Smith - Analyst
Matthew Smith - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Jon Andersen, William Blair.
喬恩安德森、威廉布萊爾。
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Jon Andersen - Analyst
I had a question on innovation. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about Indulgent that line and whether -- how incremental you're seeing in that business in terms of attracting an additional occasion or occasions? And then also on Almondmilk, it may be too early, but how the Premier brand is translating in it's kind of a different subsegment of the category?
我有一個關於創新的問題。我想知道您是否可以再多談 Indulgent 系列,以及您是否認為該業務在吸引更多場合方面取得了多大的進展?還有杏仁奶,現在可能還為時過早,但 Premier 品牌在該類別的不同子領域中的表現如何?
And then if I could just throw in a follow-up maybe for Paul. A lot of talk about competition, obviously, and investment levels and focus -- any thoughts on changes to kind of your capital allocation priorities going forward?
然後我是否可以為保羅提供後續資訊。顯然,我們談論了很多關於競爭、投資水準和重點的問題——您對未來資本配置重點的變化有什麼想法嗎?
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. So I'll start. Indulgent. So first of all, I would say that, that's the one we have the most history on right now because it launched earlier in the year, and it's a really strong performance. I think that we launched it first in mass and it did very well, 3 out of the 4 flavors are in the top third. We actually got the fourth item in there because of that success.
好的。那我就開始了。放縱。首先,我想說,這是我們目前歷史最悠久的產品,因為它在今年早些時候推出,而且表現非常強勁。我認為我們首先大規模推出它並且做得很好,四種口味中有三種都排在前三分之一。事實上,由於那次成功,我們得到了第四件物品。
And the success in mass also translated into expanding distribution into other places. So -- and we're continuing, as I just talked about, the TDP gains will be expanding Indulgent into kind of more the rest of mass as well as other food channels include -- and also got it into club as well, a club account as well.
大規模的成功也使其分銷範圍擴大到其他地方。所以 — — 正如我剛才所說,我們將繼續,TDP 收益將把 Indulgent 擴展到更多的大眾市場以及其他食品管道 — — 並將其擴展到俱樂部,俱樂部帳戶。
So feel really good about that. Strong incrementality. You asked about the whole concept of Indulgent was that it would be incremental from like an occasion standpoint, and that is exactly -- the numbers are showing that. About half of the sales are actually driven by category expansion. So that is exactly what we want to see.
所以對此感覺非常好。增量性強。您詢問的 Indulgent 的整個概念是,從場合的角度來看,它會是漸進的,而這正是 - 數字表明了這一點。大約一半的銷售額其實是由品類擴張所推動的。這正是我們希望看到的。
I think the bonus was that we actually are getting some new consumers. The design of it was incremental occasions. So having your own consumers buy more for a different occasion, so that is happening. I said 50%. But I think what's nice is the bonus is that we're actually getting some incremental consumers as well who just see the concept and they resonate to the concept. So that feels really good.
我認為額外的好處是我們確實獲得了一些新消費者。它的設計是漸進式的。因此,讓你的消費者在不同的場合購買更多產品,這種情況正在發生。我說的是50%。但我認為,好處是,我們實際上也獲得了一些增量消費者,他們看到了這個概念,並對這個概念產生了共鳴。感覺真的很好。
On Almond, exactly what you said. It's just too early. We just launched, really, we only have it right now in Amazon. We were -- they just had a promotion earlier or last month, it was included in that, saw some good trial there. And now we're rolling out into other food and mass customers in the fall. We've got a test in mass, et cetera. So too early to tell, but I would say that on e-com, it's actually, we're having good pickup. It's a personal family favorite in my household. So that goes a long way.
關於杏仁,正如你所說的。現在還太早。我們剛剛推出,實際上,目前僅在亞馬遜上有售。我們——他們上個月早些時候剛剛進行了一次促銷,其中包括了這項活動,在那裡看到了一些不錯的嘗試。現在我們將在秋季向其他食品和大眾客戶推出這項產品。我們進行了大規模測試等等。現在說還為時過早,但我想說,在電子商務方面,我們實際上正在取得良好的回升。這是我家人最喜歡的。這意義重大。
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
Paul Rode - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer
And on capital allocation, I would say no real change to our priorities. We will continue to balance kind of debt pay downs on a revolver and share buybacks, opportunistic share buybacks using our free cash flow, our strong free cash flow to -- on those items. I think M&A is still more medium to long term. We continue to focus on organic growth. I would say not any significant real changes to our capital allocation approach as we go forward.
在資本配置方面,我想說我們的優先事項沒有真正的改變。我們將繼續平衡循環信貸的債務償還和股票回購,利用我們的自由現金流、我們強勁的自由現金流進行機會性股票回購——用於這些項目。我認為併購還是比較中長期的。我們繼續關注有機成長。我想說的是,隨著我們不斷前進,我們的資本配置方法不會發生任何重大的實際變化。
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Thanks so much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。
Steve Powers - Analyst
Steve Powers - Analyst
Not to take us backwards. But Darcy, as -- I think if I had told you three months ago that consumption would have ended at 19% for 3Q, I think you would have said that indicated momentum that would likely yield better than the high teens, low 20%s consumption that you're now calling for in 4Q. So can you just be a little bit more precise as to what may have temporarily inflated 3Q? And then conversely, what may be dampening 4Q versus kind of your expectations three months ago?
不要讓我們倒退。但是達西,我想如果我三個月前告訴你,第三季度的消費量將達到 19%,我想你會說這表明的勢頭可能會比你現在所預測的第四季度的 15% 到 20% 的消費量更好。那麼,您能否更準確地說明一下導致第三季資料暫時膨脹的原因是什麼?那麼,與三個月前的預期相比,第四季的業績可能因哪些因素而受到影響?
And then if I could, just looking forward, I just want to be really clear, because I've heard different things. I've heard it's too early for '26. I've heard it's too soon in the call. But then I've also heard more recently, you said 10% plus is your assumption. So coming out of 4Q, given the current momentum, are you saying that next year is supposed to be a 10%-plus growth year? Or are you not sure about that?
如果可以的話,我只是展望未來,我只是想說清楚,因為我聽到了不同的事情。我聽說 26 年還太早。我聽說通話時間太早了。但最近我也聽說,你說 10% 以上是你的假設。那麼,從第四季度的情況來看,考慮到目前的勢頭,您是否認為明年的成長速度應該會超過 10%?或者你對此並不確定?
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. So Steve, can you go back to the first question just around? So you're asking about the consumption of Q3 being 19% and then the expectation of Q4?
好的。那麼史蒂夫,你能回到剛才的第一個問題嗎?所以您問的是第三季的消費量是 19%,然後是第四季的預期?
Steve Powers - Analyst
Steve Powers - Analyst
Yeah. Right. Because your call coming into the quarter in 3Q was mid- to high teens consumption growth. You came in at the high end of that, which implies momentum that I think would have -- all else equal put you towards the top end of your range, that's now -- we've kind of ratcheted down towards the midpoint of the range. So just what may have temporarily inflated consumption in 3Q and/or what is dampening consumption relative to what your expected curve was three months ago?
是的。正確的。因為您在第三季預測的消費成長率是中高水準。您進入了該範圍的高端,這意味著我認為勢頭會 - 在其他所有條件相同的情況下,您會達到範圍的高端,那就是現在 - 我們已經逐漸下降到範圍的中點。那麼,相對於三個月前的預期曲線,究竟是什麼原因導致第三季的消費暫時膨脹,又是什麼原因抑制了消費呢?
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So I'll go back to the kind of puts and takes I talked about at the beginning. First of all, the Q3 consumption, I mean, it was slight. I mean we were a little bit on the high side, but it more -- it was less actually volume. It was more on the pricing side. So I kind of talked about maybe it's a benefit of a couple of million dollars. The other piece that was on the positive side for Q4 is we gained that short-term pallet. We've got a couple of months benefit there. One was promoted.
是的。因此我將回到我在開始時談到的那種投入和產出。首先,第三季的消費量很小。我的意思是,我們的產量有點偏高,但實際上產量較少。這更多的是定價方面的問題。所以我說這可能是幾百萬美元的收益。第四季度的另一個積極方面是我們獲得了短期托盤。我們在那裡獲得了幾個月的福利。其中一人晉升。
And then what offset -- what reverse is, and this is -- these are assumptions, but what reverses those two gains is that when we got that short-term club pallet, several other competitors also gained short-term space. And so we're assuming that this increases the competitive pressures and reverses the two gains that I talked about.
然後什麼是抵消 - 什麼是逆轉,這是 - 這些都是假設,但逆轉這兩個收益的是,當我們獲得短期俱樂部托盤時,其他幾個競爭對手也獲得了短期空間。因此,我們假設這會增加競爭壓力並逆轉我所說的兩個收益。
Now, these are small pieces. These are minor. These are -- we're all talking about 2% up, 2% down. So it's just not that extreme. But again, those are the puts and takes. As we go through a quarter, we have a million puts and takes, but those are the keys.
現在,這些都是小塊。這些都是小事。這些都是——我們都在談論上漲 2%,下跌 2%。所以情況並沒有那麼極端。但同樣,這些都是需要付出和收穫的。當我們度過一個季度時,我們會有無數的得失,但這些是關鍵。
Steve Powers - Analyst
Steve Powers - Analyst
Okay. And then can you just -- because I'm getting questions from a lot of people like on '26, are you saying you don't know? Or are you saying 10% plus?
好的。然後你能不能──因為我收到很多人關於『26』的問題,你是說你不知道?還是您說的是 10% 以上?
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. We are in the middle of our planning process. What I said about 10% plus is that's our long-term algorithm. That's our goal.
是的。我們正處於規劃過程之中。我所說的 10% 以上是我們的長期演算法。這就是我們的目標。
Steve Powers - Analyst
Steve Powers - Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
John Baumgartner, Mizuho Securities.
瑞穗證券的約翰·鮑姆加特納。
John Baumgartner - Analyst
John Baumgartner - Analyst
Darcy, in your remarks, you mentioned innovation and the appeal of ultra filter milk in ready-to-drink has been proven at scale at this point. There's more competitors coming in with that formula. You touched on it a few moments ago. But just to keep with that line of thinking, setting aside the viscosity element of it, are there specific demographics where you're seeing filter milk appeal more strongly?
達西,在您的演講中,您提到了創新,並且超濾牛奶在即飲飲料中的吸引力目前已得到大規模證明。越來越多的競爭對手採用這項模式。您剛才提到了這一點。但是,只是為了保持這種思路,拋開黏度因素,您是否發現在特定的人群中過濾牛奶的吸引力更強?
Are you seeing more new households coming into the category through filter milk relative to MPCs at this point? If you could just speak to how you segmentation and ready-to-drink going forward, aside from the loyal from your consumers that are out there and whether you would consider launching an ultra-filtered format yourself for Premier.
目前,您是否看到越來越多的新家庭通濾乳進入該類別,而不是透過 MPC 進入該類別?除了現有的忠實消費者之外,您是否可以談談未來如何細分和即飲,以及您是否會考慮為 Premier 推出超濾格式。
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Darcy Davenport - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, John. So we see a pretty even -- like again, we don't really filter -- no pun intended. We don't look at things through ultra-filtered milk versus MPC, but I understand what you're asking. Interestingly enough, we've done a fair amount of research on it just recently. And consumers actually don't know what ultra-filtered milk or MPC is. Like ultimately, the source of protein is not a key driver for purchase. Brands are actually the key driver for purchase.
是的,約翰。因此,我們看到的是相當均勻的——就像再說一次,我們並沒有真正過濾——沒有雙關語的意思。我們不會透過超濾牛奶與 MPC 進行比較來看待問題,但我明白您的要求。有趣的是,我們最近對此進行了大量的研究。而消費者其實並不知道超濾牛奶或MPC是什麼。從根本上來說,蛋白質來源並不是購買的關鍵驅動因素。品牌實際上是購買的關鍵驅動力。
So even loyal consumers of ultra-filtered milk products, they actually don't know that it's ultra-filtered milk. So the brands and the taste and texture, that's actually what drives and the macros or actually what drives but what drives consumption and purchase and trial.
所以即使是超濾牛奶產品的忠實消費者,其實也不知道這是超濾牛奶。因此,品牌、口味和質地實際上是驅動因素,宏觀因素或實際上是驅動因素,但驅動消費、購買和試用。
But having said that, when we're looking at new people coming into the category and if you were to look at ultra-filtered milk versus MPC products, they're about even. And again, I think that goes to consumers aren't distinguishing between the two, but what they're coming in on is what flavors resonate with me, what brands resonate with me, what macro levels resonate with me. And so I think that even some packaging formats resonate with me. So those are the decisions that consumers are making. They're not looking at the pro type of proteins that actually the products are made in.
但話雖如此,當我們看到新人進入該類別時,如果你看看超濾牛奶和 MPC 產品,你會發現它們差不多。再說一次,我認為消費者並沒有區分這兩者,但他們關注的是哪種口味能引起我的共鳴,哪種品牌能引起我的共鳴,哪種宏觀層面能引起我的共鳴。所以我認為甚至一些包裝格式也引起了我的共鳴。這些都是消費者所做的決定。他們並沒有關注產品實際所含的蛋白質類型。
John Baumgartner - Analyst
John Baumgartner - Analyst
Thanks, Darcy.
謝謝,達西。
Operator
Operator
The question-and-answer session is now closed. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.
問答環節現已結束。感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。