Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc (BOW) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Bowhead Specialty's Q2 2025 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Also, as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.

您好，歡迎參加 Bowhead Specialty 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）另外，提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。如果您有任何異議，請立即斷開連接。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Shirley Yap, Head of Investor Relations. Shirley, you may begin.

接下來，我想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shirley Yap。雪莉，你可以開始了。

Thanks, Stefan. Good morning, and welcome to Bowhead's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Shirley Yap, Bowhead's Chief Accounting Officer and Head of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Stephen Sills, our Chief Executive Officer; and Brad Mulcahey, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，史蒂芬。早安，歡迎參加 Bowhead 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我是 Shirley Yap，Bowhead 的首席會計長兼投資者關係主管。今天與我一起出席的還有我們的執行長 Stephen Sills 和我們的財務長 Brad Mulcahey。

Earlier this morning, we released our financial results for the second quarter of 2025. You can find our earnings release in the Investor Relations section of our website. Our Form 10-Q will be also available on our website later this evening.

今天早些時候，我們發布了 2025 年第二季的財務表現。您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到我們的收益報告。我們的 10-Q 表格也將於今晚晚些時候在我們的網站上發布。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that this call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statement. These statements are made only as of the date of this call and are based on management's current expectations and beliefs.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。投資者不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述。這些聲明僅截至本次電話會議之日作出，並基於管理層當前的預期和信念。

Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. You should review the risks and uncertainties fully described in our SEC filings. We expressly disclaim any duty to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. Additionally, we will be referencing certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their respective most directly comparable GAAP measure can be found in the earnings release we issued this morning and in the Investor Relations section of our website.

前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與這些陳述所預期的結果有重大差異。您應該查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細描述的風險和不確定性。我們明確表示不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務，除非法律要求。此外，我們將在本次電話會議中參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與其各自最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳可以在我們今天早上發布的收益報告和我們網站的投資者關係部分中找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Stephen. Stephen?

說完這些，我將把電話轉給史蒂芬。史蒂芬？

Thank you, Shirley. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join our call today. I'm pleased to share that Bowhead once again delivered outstanding results across the board in Q2. Gross written premiums increased 32%, while adjusted net income increased 62% and diluted adjusted earnings per share increased 32%. These results demonstrate what we have consistently communicated since the establishment of our company that underwriting matters from the top down, underwriting profitability is our North Star.

謝謝你，雪莉。大家早安，感謝您今天抽出時間參加我們的電話會議。我很高興地告訴大家，Bowhead 在第二季再次取得了全面的優異成績。毛承保保費成長 32%，調整後淨收入成長 62%，稀釋調整後每股盈餘成長 32%。這些結果證明了我們自公司成立以來一直傳達的訊息：承保事務自上而下，承保獲利能力是我們的北極星。

Starting with GWP, Bowhead generated a record $232 million in premiums during the quarter. This equates to 32% year-over-year growth. We're pleased that this was driven by double-digit growth across all of our craft underwriting divisions. Once again, our Casualty division comprised the largest portion of our premium growth with a 32% increase to $151 million. This growth in Casualty was primarily driven by our excess Casualty book, where despite signs of increased competition, for now, we're continuing to see favorable underwriting and pricing conditions. We also experienced modest premium growth in our primary construction project book, where we're able to deploy low $1 million or $2 million limits with favorable pricing terms and conditions.

從 GWP 開始，Bowhead 在本季創造了創紀錄的 2.32 億美元保費收入。這相當於年增 32%。我們很高興看到，這是由我們所有製程核保部門的兩位數成長所推動的。我們的意外險部門再次成為我們保費成長的最大貢獻者，成長了 32%，達到 1.51 億美元。意外險的成長主要得益於我們超額的意外險帳簿，儘管有跡象表明競爭加劇，但目前，我們仍然看到有利的承保和定價條件。我們的主要建築項目保費也出現了適度增長，我們能夠以優惠的價格條款和條件部署 100 萬美元或 200 萬美元的低限額。

In our Professional Liability division, premiums increased 23% to $55 million for the quarter. Although we continue to experience challenging underwriting conditions, we found profitable growth opportunities in all departments with commercial public D&O driving more than half of our growth. In last quarter's call, we mentioned that we had started to see shoots of market stabilization. This quarter, the positive developments continued. We capitalized on some new opportunities and retained a large proportion of our renewals at or near expiring rates.

在我們的專業責任部門，本季保費成長了 23%，達到 5,500 萬美元。儘管我們繼續面臨嚴峻的承保條件，但我們在所有部門都發現了獲利成長機會，其中商業公共 D&O 推動了我們一半以上的成長。在上個季度的電話會議中，我們提到我們已經開始看到市場穩定的跡象。本季度，積極的發展勢頭持續。我們利用了一些新的機會，並保留了很大一部分以到期或接近到期價格續約的合約。

In the second quarter, premiums in our Healthcare Liability division increased 39% to $24 million. The growth came from all departments. As we mentioned last quarter, we continue to grow the book responsibly. Where underlying numbers don't meet our profitability targets, we've continued to decline or let other carriers renew our accounts. During the quarter, Baleen generated $3.4 million of premiums during its fourth full quarter of operations. While still a small contributor to Bowhead's overall premiums, we're achieving steady month-over-month growth and are continuing to expand our flow underwriting operation to support our cross-cycle strategy.

第二季度，我們的醫療責任部門的保費增加了 39%，達到 2,400 萬美元。成長來自所有部門。正如我們上個季度提到的，我們將繼續負責任地發展這本書。當基本數字不符合我們的獲利目標時，我們會繼續拒絕或讓其他業者續簽我們的帳戶。在本季度，Baleen 在其第四個完整營運季度中創造了 340 萬美元的保費收入。雖然對 Bowhead 的整體保費貢獻仍然很小，但我們正在實現穩定的環比成長，並繼續擴大我們的流量承保業務，以支持我們的跨週期策略。

Before discussing our views on the E&S market we operate in, I'll turn the call over to Brad to discuss our strong Q2 results in more detail.

在討論我們對所經營的 E&S 市場的看法之前，我將把電話轉給布拉德，更詳細地討論我們強勁的第二季業績。

Thanks, Stephen. Bowhead generated adjusted net income of $12.8 million or $0.37 per diluted share and adjusted return on average equity of 12.8% for the second quarter of 2025. Gross written premiums increased more than 32% to a record $232 million for the quarter. As Stephen mentioned, we achieved double-digit growth in each of our craft underwriting divisions with Casualty continuing to drive the growth and Baleen generating $3.4 million of premiums in the quarter.

謝謝，史蒂芬。2025 年第二季度，Bowhead 的調整後淨收入為 1,280 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.37 美元，調整後平均股本回報率為 12.8%。本季總承保保費成長超過 32%，達到創紀錄的 2.32 億美元。正如史蒂芬所提到的，我們在每個核保部門都實現了兩位數的成長，其中 Casualty 繼續推動成長，Baleen 在本季度創造了 340 萬美元的保費收入。

Turning to our loss ratio. There are several elements that affect our loss ratios. First, as a reminder, since we're a relatively new company writing long-tail lines with a short loss history, when setting our loss reserves, we're heavily reliant on industry observed loss information over our own internal data. This reliance is reflected in our high ratio of IBNR as a percentage of total reserves, which was 87.5% at the end of the quarter. Second, product mix affects our industry reliant loss ratio because Casualty products naturally have higher current accident year loss ratio assumptions compared to our other products.

談談我們的損失率。有幾個因素會影響我們的損失率。首先，需要提醒的是，由於我們是一家相對較新的公司，從事長尾險業務，且損失歷史較短，因此在設定損失準備金時，我們嚴重依賴行業觀察到的損失信息，而不是我們自己的內部數據。這種依賴反映在我們的 IBNR 佔總儲備金的比例較高，本季末為 87.5%。其次，產品組合影響我們的產業依賴損失率，因為與我們的其他產品相比，意外險產品自然具有更高的當前事故年度損失率假設。

Since our Casualty division comprises an ever-larger proportion of our net earned premium, our industry reliant loss ratio has been trending higher. This has had the effect of increasing our current accident year loss ratio by 0.6 points from 65.5% in Q2 of last year to 66.1% this quarter.

由於我們的意外險部門在我們的淨保費收入中所佔的比例越來越大，我們的產業依賴損失率一直呈上升趨勢。這導致我們本年度事故損失率上升了 0.6 個百分點，從去年第二季的 65.5% 上升至本季的 66.1%。

Next, seasonality also has an effect on our loss ratio. During the first quarter, when incentive compensation is paid to our internal claims team, also known as paid ULAE, our loss ratio tends to be higher before historically normalizing after the first quarter. This had the effect of decreasing our loss ratio by 0.7 points from 66.9% in Q1 of this year to 66.2% this quarter.

其次，季節性也會對我們的損失率產生影響。在第一季度，當向我們的內部索賠團隊支付激勵性薪酬（也稱為支付的 ULAE）時，我們的損失率往往會較高，然後在第一季之後恢復正常。這使得我們的損失率從今年第一季的 66.9% 下降了 0.7 個百分點至本季的 66.2%。

Lastly, as we mentioned in the previous quarter, the 0.1-point year-over-year change in our prior accident year loss ratio is simply due to loss ratios being applied to audit premiums that were billed and fully earned in the quarter, but related to prior accident years. This is not based on actual losses settling for more than reserves and does not represent an increase in estimated reserves on unresolved claims. We are simply putting loss reserves into the appropriate accident year when the premiums are booked.

最後，正如我們在上一季提到的那樣，我們上一事故年度損失率同比變化 0.1 個百分點僅僅是由於損失率應用於本季度已開具賬單並全額賺取但與上一事故年度相關的審計保費。這並不是基於實際損失超過準備金的賠償，也不代表未解決索賠的估計準備金的增加。我們只是在預訂保費時將損失準備金放入相應的事故年度。

As a result, our loss ratio for the quarter was 66.2%, a 0.7-point increase from 65.5% year-over-year. Our expense ratio for the quarter was 30.6%, a decrease of 3.2 points compared to 33.8% year-over-year. The decrease was driven by the reduction in our operating expense ratio from the continued scaling of our business as well as the prudent management of our expenses.

因此，本季我們的損失率為 66.2%，比去年同期的 65.5% 增加了 0.7 個百分點。本季我們的費用率為 30.6%，較去年同期的 33.8% 下降了 3.2 個百分點。費用率下降的原因是，隨著我們業務規模的不斷擴大以及對費用的審慎管理，營業費用率有所下降。

There's also an increase in our other insurance-related income, which consists of minimal policy fees and insurance-related services that contributed to the reduction in our expense ratio from last year. These improvements were partially offset by an increase in our net acquisition ratio, driven by portfolio mix and to a lesser extent, a reduction in earned ceding commissions.

我們的其他保險相關收入也有所增加，其中包括最低保單費和保險相關服務，這有助於降低我們的費用率。這些改善被我們的淨收購率的增加部分抵消，這是由投資組合的增加所推動的，而在較小程度上，這是由於所賺取的轉讓佣金的減少所致。

In terms of our net acquisition ratio, in late May, on the one-year anniversary from our IPO, the fee we paid to American Family increased from 2% to 2.75%. The impact on our Q2 net acquisition ratio was minimal, but we expect the increased fee to trickle into our net acquisition ratio the rest of the year as premiums affected by the increase are earned.

就我們的淨收購率而言，5 月底，也就是我們 IPO 一周年之際，我們支付給 American Family 的費用從 2% 增加到了 2.75%。這對我們第二季的淨收購率的影響很小，但我們預計，隨著受成長影響的保費收入增加，增加的費用將在今年剩餘時間內逐漸滲透到我們的淨收購率中。

From an expense ratio perspective, we expect the increased fee we pay to American Family to be offset by the continued scaling of our business and the prudent management of our expenses. Overall, the loss ratio and expense ratio contributed to a combined ratio of 96.8% for the quarter.

從費用比率的角度來看，我們預計向 American Family 支付的增加的費用將被我們業務的持續擴張和謹慎的費用管理所抵消。整體而言，本季的損失率和費用率綜合成本率為 96.8%。

Turning to our investment portfolio. Net investment income increased 56% year-over-year to $13.7 million for the quarter, primarily due to higher average balance of investments and higher yields on invested assets. Our investment portfolio had a book yield of 4.7% and a new money rate of 4.8% at the end of the quarter. The average credit quality of our investment portfolio remained at AA, and our average duration was 2.8 years at the end of the quarter.

轉向我們的投資組合。本季淨投資收入年增 56% 至 1,370 萬美元，主要由於投資平均餘額增加和投資資產收益率增加。本季末，我們的投資組合帳面收益率為 4.7%，新貨幣利率為 4.8%。我們的投資組合的平均信用品質維持在AA，本季末的平均期限為2.8年。

Lastly, total equity was $408 million, giving us a diluted book value per share of $12.04 at the end of the quarter, an increase of 9% from year-end. Before turning the call back to Stephen, I wanted to provide an update on our May 1 ceded reinsurance renewals, which apply to all of our departments, except for our Cyber Liability products. Our Cyber Liability products are covered by our 60% quota share treaty, which renews January 1. Overall, we increased our quota share treaty from 25% to 26%, and our excess of loss treaty increased from 60.1% to 65%. Ceding commissions on our May 1 renewals remained unchanged from 2024.

最後，總股本為 4.08 億美元，使我們在本季末的每股攤薄帳面價值達到 12.04 美元，比年底增長 9%。在將電話轉回給史蒂芬之前，我想提供有關我們 5 月 1 日轉讓再保險續保的最新情況，該續保適用於我們除網路責任產品以外的所有部門。我們的網路責任產品受 60% 配額份額條約的保障，該條約將於 1 月 1 日續簽。總體而言，我們將配額份額條約從 25% 提高到 26%，超額損失條約從 60.1% 提高到 65%。我們 5 月 1 日續約的轉讓佣金與 2024 年相比保持不變。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Stephen.

說完這些，我就把電話轉回給史蒂芬。

Thanks, Brad. In terms of the E&S market we operate in, let's start with Casualty. Within the excess casualty segment, we continue to see overall discipline in limit deployment and rates. However, consistent with trends communicated by other carriers, we've seen a modest uptick in competition, which is in line with the expectations of an underwriting cycle.

謝謝，布拉德。就我們經營的 E&S 市場而言，讓我們先從意外險開始。在超額傷亡部分，我們繼續看到限制部署和費率的整體紀律。然而，與其他保險公司傳達的趨勢一致，我們看到競爭略有上升，這符合承保週期的預期。

In terms of MGAs, while they are present, their influence in the areas we operate in are minimal at this time. We often see them participating in the upper end of towers where brokers struggle to fill capacity. Despite the uptick in competition with excess casualty markets still making up for legacy losses, we don't expect to see limits going back up or an across-the-board price drop anytime soon. New business opportunities for excess towers being reshuffled for price, limit reductions or changing appetites from incumbents still far outweigh instances of unreasonably competitive renewals.

就 MGA 而言，雖然它們存在，但目前它們在我們運營的地區的影響微乎其微。我們經常看到他們參與高層建築的建設中，而經紀人們則努力填補這一空缺。儘管超額傷亡險市場仍在彌補遺留損失，競爭加劇，但我們預期短期內保額不會回升，也不會出現全線價格下跌。由於價格、限額減少或現有營運商需求變化而重組過剩塔樓所帶來的新商機仍然遠遠超過不合理的競爭性續約案例。

In the E&S construction project sector, we're starting to see a deceleration of new construction projects. Tariffs are creating uncertainty around building material costs, stricter immigration policies are resulting in uncertainty around the availability and cost of labor and the interest rate environment remains uncertain. In professional, with the exception of public D&O, we're continuing to see challenging market conditions, particularly in financial institutions and large cyber liability accounts.

在 E&S 建設項目領域，我們開始看到新建設項目數量放緩。關稅導致建築材料成本的不確定性，更嚴格的移民政策導致勞動力的可用性和成本的不確定性，利率環境仍然不確定。在專業領域，除了公共 D&O 之外，我們繼續看到充滿挑戰的市場環境，特別是在金融機構和大型網路責任帳戶方面。

In public D&O, as we mentioned, we started seeing signs of market stabilization. Legacy markets started to push back on broker requests for rate decreases and brokers began telling clients to anticipate flat or rising rates. With Markel exiting the segment, we're also seeing more turnover on programs, creating potential opportunities. While there are limited shoots of small improvements, we remain disciplined in our underwriting.

在公共 D&O 領域，正如我們所提到的，我們開始看到市場穩定的跡象。傳統市場開始拒絕經紀人降低利率的要求，經紀人開始告訴客戶預期利率持平或上升。隨著 Markel 退出該領域，我們也看到了更多專案的周轉，創造了潛在的機會。儘管小幅改善的跡像有限，但我們在核保方面仍保持紀律。

The financial institution space continues to be the most challenging, driven by an overabundance of capacity. In cyber liability, market conditions in the large account space remain competitive. We're seeing new limit opportunities on large accounts, but they're being taken up by new broker facilities. Ahead of these conditions, we've leveraged our technology to cost effectively underwrite small and middle market accounts.

由於產能過剩，金融機構領域仍然是最具挑戰性的。在網路責任領域，大額帳戶領域的市場條件仍然競爭激烈。我們看到大額帳戶出現了新的限制機會，但它們被新的經紀商設施所佔據。在這些條件之前，我們利用我們的技術以經濟高效的方式承保中小型市場帳戶。

Turning to Healthcare Liability, this remains a competitive landscape with pockets of positive developments. For example, in hospitals, we're seeing rate increases, but the industry is still working through coverage terms and conditions around emerging regulatory, crime and abuse risks within the sector. Likewise, in senior care, we're seeing some strong rate on renewals due to industry claim activities, but competition still remains strong.

談到醫療責任，這仍然是一個競爭激烈的領域，但也出現了一些正面的發展。例如，在醫院，我們看到費率正在上漲，但該行業仍在努力解決行業內新出現的監管、犯罪和濫用風險的承保條款和條件。同樣，在老年護理領域，由於行業索賠活動，我們看到續保率上升，但競爭仍然很激烈。

Overall, with our disciplined approach to underwriting and our expanding craft and flow platforms, Bowhead is a franchise being built for enduring success and cross-cycle profitability. With that, we'll turn the call over for questions.

總體而言，憑藉我們嚴謹的核保方法和不斷擴展的工藝和流程平台，Bowhead 是一家致力於持久成功和跨週期盈利的特許經營企業。接下來，我們將轉而回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Meyer Shields, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

（操作員指示）Meyer Shields、Keefe、Bruyette 和 Woods。

Stephen, I was hoping you could comment on how fungible the significant capacity that you described as available for financial institutions is for other professional liability products. Does that tend to leak out? Or is it restricted to that particular segment?

史蒂芬，我希望您能評論一下您所描述的金融機構可用的巨大容量與其他專業責任產品的可替代性如何。這會洩漏出去嗎？還是它僅限於特定的部分？

At this time, it seems to be that particular segment. In past years, financial institutions have been generally the hardest of the markets because of the risk of contagion. So we're kind of surprised, but there are losses in the business and people haven't pulled back, and it just seems to be the worst of the various classes within the D&O world, at least at this time.

此時，似乎就是那個特定的片段。過去幾年，由於存在蔓延風險，金融機構通常是市場中最艱難的。因此我們有點驚訝，但該業務確實存在虧損，而且人們還沒有撤退，至少目前，它似乎是 D&O 領域中各種類別中最糟糕的。

Okay. That's helpful. And more broadly, I was hoping for an update on what you're seeing or -- I guess, either in Bowhead's book or more broadly in terms of social inflation, specifically on professional liability, where presumably we don't have the physical injuries that are such a major component of current social inflation.

好的。這很有幫助。更廣泛地說，我希望對您所看到的內容進行更新——我想，無論是在 Bowhead 的書中，還是在更廣泛的社會通膨方面，特別是在職業責任方面，大概我們不會遇到身體傷害，而身體傷害是當前社會通膨的主要組成部分。

Sure. We're seeing it much more on the Casualty side. Claims that once settled for $2 million, $3 million could go at $10 million plus. We also think part of the problem is -- and it's also -- we've talked about the opportunity that was created by people cutting back from $25 million to $5 million layers, which created opportunities for markets like us going back several years to be able to fill in those holes and get a foothold in the market.

當然。我們在《Casualty》雜誌上看到更多這樣的情況。曾經以 200 萬美元、300 萬美元解決的索賠可能會上升到 1000 萬美元以上。我們還認為，問題的一部分是——而且——我們已經討論過人們將層級從 2500 萬美元削減到 500 萬美元所創造的機會，這為我們這樣的市場創造了機會，讓我們能夠填補這些空白並在市場上站穩腳跟。

The downside of what's happening there sometimes is that when a carrier has $5 million and they get pressure from markets up above to settle claims, companies are being more willing to just throw their $5 million on the table and walk away from the claim and leaving it for the responsibility of the rest of the tower. And that, I think, has also led to the rise in some of these claim settlements.

有時，這種情況的缺點是，當一家運營商擁有 500 萬美元，並且受到來自上級市場的壓力要求解決索賠時，公司更願意將 500 萬美元拋在一邊，放棄索賠，並將其責任留給其他塔台。我認為，這也導致了一些索賠金額的增加。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅紐瑟姆、派珀桑德勒。

I was hoping you could give me a little bit more thoughts and guidance on how we should think about the investment income outlook. And specifically to the -- as your mix shifts, how we should think about the reserve mix? So you got a long tail line of business, you've got rapid growth. I'm not certain exactly how I should put the numbers together when I'm thinking about how the underlying cash flows will grow, whether or not they sort of accelerate here because of the long tail or if it's consistent with sort of overall investment -- size of the business growth. Any thoughts you have there would be really helpful.

我希望您能就我們應該如何看待投資收益前景給我更多的想法和指導。具體來說——隨著組合的變化，我們該如何考慮儲備組合？因此，您擁有長尾業務線，並且實現了快速成長。當我思考基礎現金流將如何成長時，我不確定應該如何將這些數字放在一起，它們是否會因為長尾而加速，或者是否與整體投資（業務成長規模）一致。您的任何想法都會非常有幫助。

Sure. Paul, this is Brad. I can talk on that one. I think it's reasonable, like you said, long tail lines, investment income should continue to grow due to increased balances being invested. If I look back, there is a little seasonality in Q1. I think if you did the math on our Q, there would be about $60 million of cash that went into the investment portfolio as free cash. That's probably the low end because we have our bonus payments that are paid in cash in Q1. You'll see in Q2, I think that number is about $80 million. So that's maybe sort of a higher end or as we continue to grow, we will end up paying more claims, which would probably be the one variable in the future that would increase.

當然。保羅，這是布萊德。我可以談論這個。我認為這是合理的，就像你說的，長尾線，由於投資餘額的增加，投資收益應該會繼續增長。如果我回顧一下，第一季有一點季節性。我想，如果你計算我們的 Q，你會發現大約有 6000 萬美元的現金作為自由現金進入投資組合。這可能是最低水平，因為我們的獎金是在第一季以現金支付的。您將在第二季度看到，我認為這個數字約為 8000 萬美元。因此，這可能是一種更高的結局，或者隨著我們的不斷發展，我們最終將支付更多的索賠，這可能是未來會增加的變數。

But again, as premiums increase, long tail lines, I think if you think about adding another somewhere between $60 million and $90 million to the portfolio each quarter, 5% or so new money rate, I think that's kind of how we're looking at it.

但是，隨著保費的增加和長尾線的增加，我認為如果你考慮每個季度向投資組合中再增加 6000 萬至 9000 萬美元，新資金利率約為 5%，我想這就是我們看待它的方式。

But we are -- do you have any thoughts about whether or not you're really making new material increase in the portfolio or it should be rate? Or is it all just about the size of the portfolio at this point?

但是我們——您是否考慮過您是否真的在增加投資組合中的新材料，或者是否應該增加利率？或者目前這一切僅僅與投資組合的規模有關？

I can't control the rates. I can control the size and how we grow it. So that's kind of what we focus on, and I think it will mostly come from that. Who knows where rates will go, that's -- your guess is probably better than mine, honestly.

我無法控制利率。我可以控制它的大小以及我們如何種植它。這就是我們關注的重點，我認為它主要來自於此。誰知道利率會走向何方，老實說，你的猜測可能比我的更好。

Matt Carletti, Citizens Capital.

卡萊蒂（Matt Carletti），公民資本公司。

I want to ask a question on Baleen. We can obviously see the numbers coming through. But I was hoping maybe, Stephen, you could give us a little bit of a qualitative rather than quantitative update on just how that's going and kind of your outlook.

我想問一個關於 Baleen 的問題。我們可以清楚地看到這些數字。但我希望，史蒂芬，您能給我們一些定性而非定量的更新，說明事情的進展以及您的展望。

Sure. Very positive on the outlook. The numbers are not what we would have expected at this point in time. But the most important thing is the technology has been developed. It works. We're able to ingest, the submissions come up with quotes bind issue policies with very little human intervention. So as far as I'm concerned, we're in a great position to be scaling the business. We believe that our quote ratio and our hit ratio on those quotes is appropriate for what it is that we're seeing.

當然。對前景非常樂觀。這些數字並不是我們目前所預期的。但最重要的是技術已經發展出來了。有用。我們能夠吸收提交的內容，並在很少的人為幹預下提出引文和約束問題政策。因此，就我而言，我們目前處於擴大業務規模的有利位置。我們相信，我們的報價率和報價命中率對於我們所看到的情況是合適的。

The thing that we're in the midst of doing, which will cause the business to scale more is getting more submissions that getting people on $5,000 or $6,000 premium accounts to send them to an alternative market. And we see that coming along. And I think you and everybody will be pleased with what they see going forward on this business. But we're very pleased where we are today, and we think it's on a good path.

我們正在做的事情將使業務規模進一步擴大，即讓擁有 5,000 美元或 6,000 美元高級帳戶的人提交更多內容，然後將其發送到替代市場。我們看到這一趨勢正在發生。我認為您和每個人都會對這項業務的進展感到滿意。但我們對目前的情況感到非常滿意，我們認為這是一條正確的道路。

Sid Shah, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Sid Shah。

This is Sid on for Bob. First question on the expense ratio. As we kind of think about you guys continuing to scale longer term and continuing to invest in technology for Baleen, what should we think about like a good kind of run rate going forward over the next year or so?

這是 Sid 為 Bob 做的事。第一個問題是關於費用比率。當我們考慮你們繼續擴大長期規模並繼續為 Baleen 投資技術時，我們應該考慮未來一年左右的良好運行率是多少？

Sid, this is Brad. I can take that one. I think you've seen it trend down. And I would say it's trending down. We're really happy with where it is now. We're right on the cusp of breaking 30%, and I think that would be fantastic if we could get into a glide path below 30%. But we do acknowledge, I think we've got headwinds with our fee that we pay to American Family going up in the future. The acquisition ratio component of that is probably the one that -- where you'll see that come through.

席德，這是布拉德。我可以接受那個。我想你已經看到它的下降趨勢了。我想說它正在呈下降趨勢。我們對現在的狀況非常滿意。我們正處於突破 30% 的邊緣，我認為如果我們能夠進入 30% 以下的下滑通道，那將是非常棒的。但我們確實承認，我認為我們向美國家庭保險公司支付的費用未來會上漲，這會給我們帶來阻力。其中收購比率部分可能就是您會看到的。

Our brokerage commissions as a percentage of our net earned premiums have actually stayed relatively flat, but we do have some headwinds on that acquisition ratio with the American Family fee. Ceding commissions, as everybody knows, haven't been great. So some headwinds there as well. But I think we're happy with -- if you look at the glide path where it's heading, and we'll continue to keep pressing as much as we can to get it below 30%.

我們的經紀佣金占我們淨賺保費的百分比實際上保持相對平穩，但我們在收購率方面確實遇到了一些阻力，因為美國家庭費用。眾所周知，放棄佣金並不是什麼好事。因此那裡也存在一些阻力。但我認為我們對此感到滿意——如果你看一下它的下滑路徑，我們將繼續盡最大努力將其降至 30% 以下。

Yes. I'm confident we're going to get below 30% in the next quarter. We'll get a run rate and all that.

是的。我相信下個季度這一比例將會降至 30% 以下。我們將獲得運行率和所有相關資訊。

Okay. Awesome. That's super helpful. And then next, when I think about your three craft segments, where do you guys think of as like the strongest growth opportunities over the next year or so, just given all the kind of market environment that you're seeing?

好的。驚人的。這非常有幫助。接下來，當我考慮你們的三個工藝領域時，考慮到你們所看到的所有市場環境，你們認為未來一年左右最強勁的成長機會在哪裡？

Well, in terms of absolute dollars, I think you'd have to say it's the Casualty business. In terms of percentage, it would be Baleen because it's starting from a small level, and we think that's going to grow nicely. But Casualty, as you've seen over the last several quarters, has continued to grow. We believe it's the largest market. And it's an area that we've been adding talent to grow, and we think it's going to continue to grow very nicely.

嗯，就絕對金額而言，我認為你必須說這是意外險業務。從百分比來看，應該是鯨鬚，因為它是從小規模開始的，我們認為它會很好地成長。但正如您在過去幾季所看到的，Casualty 一直在持續成長。我們相信這是最大的市場。我們一直在為這個領域引進人才，希望它能持續發展，我們認為這個領域將會繼續保持良好的發展動能。

Pablo Singzon, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Pablo Singzon。

So first question for Brad. Just given that we're now in the second half of the year, can you please remind us of the timing of Bowhead's annual assumption review? And if you could comment on how experience thus far in '25 is squaring against the assumptions you put in last year?

第一個問題是問布拉德。鑑於現在已經進入下半年，您能否提醒我們 Bowhead 年度假設審查的時間？您能否評論一下 25 年迄今的經驗與您去年的假設有何不同？

Yes. Thanks, Pablo. I'll maybe revisit what happened last year and how we look at it this year as well. We do an annual review of our reserves with our external actuary in Q4. Each quarter, we look internally and always reserve the right to make whatever changes we deem necessary. But for the past 1.5 years, Q4 has been the year when we actually change loss picks. Right now, we've got, I think, about 17 individual reserving segments that have individual loss picks for each year. And that's why we say when the loss ratio changes, it's a mix change as those -- as the premium related to those 17 reserving segments moves around, you will see the loss ratio move each quarter.

是的。謝謝，巴勃羅。我可能會重新回顧去年發生的事情以及我們今年如何看待它。我們在第四季度與外部精算師對我們的儲備進行年度審查。每個季度，我們都會進行內部審查，並始終保留做出我們認為必要的任何變更的權利。但在過去的一年半里，第四季是我們真正改變虧損選擇的一年。目前，我認為我們有大約 17 個單獨的準備金部分，每年都有單獨的損失選擇。這就是為什麼我們說當損失率發生變化時，它是一個混合變化——隨著與這 17 個準備金部分相關的保費變動，你會看到損失率每個季度都在變化。

In Q4, we'll get updated industry information from our third-party actuaries, which, as I mentioned, that kind of drives most of our loss picks because of our limited history. At that stage, we will determine how we absorb those into our loss ratio. Last year, I think you saw we did end up lowering the loss ratio because our -- I think our rate was just so much higher than loss trends. TBD, what that looks like in Q4 of this year, we -- there are reserves. So even if the third-party actuary comes along with lower loss picks, we may still keep higher ones if we think that's prudent or not, but that will be a sort of a Q4 decision. Up until then, it's mostly mix or as I said, if we see anything that midway through the year, we want to change, we could do that as well.

在第四季度，我們將從第三方精算師那裡獲得最新的行業信息，正如我所提到的，由於我們的歷史有限，這些信息推動了我們的大部分損失選擇。在那個階段，我們將確定如何將這些損失吸收到我們的損失率中。去年，我想您已經看到我們確實降低了損失率，因為我們的比率——我認為我們的比率遠高於損失趨勢。有待確定，今年第四季的情況如何，我們有儲備。因此，即使第三方精算師提出較低的損失選擇，如果我們認為這是否謹慎，我們仍可能保留較高的損失選擇，但這將是第四季度的決定。到那時為止，它主要是混合的，或者正如我所說的，如果我們在年中看到任何我們想要改變的事情，我們也可以這樣做。

And then a second question on the -- as a follow-up to the investment portfolio questions we've had on the call. So I think your new money yield is only 10 bps above the portfolio yield, at least based on what you disclosed, right, 4.8% versus 4.7%. So the question is, do you see any opportunities to boost the new money yield here? Or would it be more reasonable to expect the portfolio yield to converge to 4.8%, of course, assuming no change in the overall interest rate environment itself.

然後是第二個問題——作為我們在電話會議上提出的投資組合問題的後續問題。因此，我認為您的新資金收益率僅比投資組合收益率高出 10 個基點，至少根據您披露的信息，是 4.8% 對 4.7%。那麼問題是，您是否看到了提高新資金收益率的機會？或者更合理的做法是預期投資組合報酬率收斂至 4.8%，當然，前提是整體利率環境本身沒有改變。

Yes. I mean we're looking at it every month and looking for opportunities in different sectors that have the best spread. So we're constantly looking for additional yield. And I think what you're seeing in the compression of the new money versus the portfolio yield is just the success of doing that. In the past year or so, we've really repositioned the portfolio into, for us, a longer duration compared to where we've been in the past and into those spread sectors that we're seeing the best yields.

是的。我的意思是我們每個月都會關注它，尋找不同領域中傳播效果最好的機會。因此我們一直在尋求額外的利益。我認為，你所看到的新資金相對於投資組合報酬率的壓縮正是這種做法的成功。在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們確實重新調整了投資組合，對我們來說，與過去相比，我們的投資組合期限更長，並且進入了那些我們看到最好的利差領域。

So time will tell where rates go, but we're really comfortable where it is now. We would love to see it get above 5%, but not something that we're going to get fancy with or exotic with to go after to chase yield. I wish I had a better answer for you, but that's kind of where we are in the investment portfolio.

因此，時間會告訴我們利率走向，但我們對目前的利率水準感到非常滿意。我們希望看到它超過 5%，但我們不會為了追逐收益而去追求一些花俏或奇特的東西。我希望我能給你一個更好的答案，但這就是我們在投資組合中的位置。

That concludes the question-and-answer portion for today's call. I will now hand the call back to Stephen Sills, CEO, for closing remarks.

今天電話會議的問答部分到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給執行長 Stephen Sills，請他作結語。

Thank you. Bowhead delivered another quarter of impressive results. Thank you to our Bowhead team members for your continued dedication, and thank you to our shareholders for your continued support. Speak to you along the way. Thank you.

謝謝。Bowhead 又一個季度取得了令人印象深刻的業績。感謝 Bowhead 團隊成員的持續奉獻，並感謝股東的持續支持。一路上和你說話。謝謝。

Thank you for joining today's session. The call has now concluded.

感謝您參加今天的會議。通話現已結束。