BOK Financial Corp (BOKF) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to BOK Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the presentation over to Marty Grunst, Chief Financial Officer for BOK Financial Corporation. Please proceed.

問候。歡迎參加 BOK Financial Corporation 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將演講交給 BOK 金融公司財務長 Marty Grunst。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss BOK Financial's fourth quarter financial results. Our CEO, Stacy Kymes, will provide opening comments. Marc Maun, Executive Vice President for Regional Banking, will cover our loan portfolio and related credit metrics and Scott Grauer, Executive Vice President of Wealth Management, will cover our fee-based results. I will then discuss financial performance for the quarter and our forward guidance. PDF of the slide presentation and fourth quarter press release are available on our website at bokf.com. We refer you to the disclaimers on Slide 2 regarding any forward-looking statements we make during this call. I'll now turn the call over to Stacy Kymes.

早安，感謝您加入我們討論 BOK Financial 第四季財務表現。我們的執行長 Stacy Kymes 將發表開場評論。區域銀行業務執行副總裁 Marc Maun 將介紹我們的貸款組合和相關信用指標，財富管理執行副總裁 Scott Grauer 將介紹我們的收費結果。然後我將討論本季的財務表現和我們的前瞻性指引。幻燈片簡報和第四季度新聞稿的 PDF 版本可在我們的網站 bokf.com 上取得。我們請您參閱投影片 2 上有關我們在本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述的免責聲明。我現在將把電話轉給 Stacy Kymes。

Thank you, Marty, and good morning, everyone. Beginning on Slide 4, we reported net income of $82.6 million or $1.26 per diluted share for the fourth quarter, which includes a $0.52 per share impact from the FDIC special assessment. I'm exceptionally proud of the BOKF team and our results this year. Our focus at BOKF has always been on providing long-term shareholder value driven by our diverse business model and talented team, both of which empowers to perform well relative to our industry during any economic environment. This was once again proven when the industry (inaudible) stress in the first half of the year, and our company was well prepared.

謝謝你，馬蒂，大家早安。從幻燈片 4 開始，我們報告第四季度淨利潤為 8260 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.26 美元，其中包括 FDIC 特別評估帶來的每股 0.52 美元的影響。我對 BOKF 團隊和我們今年的成果感到非常自豪。 BOKF 的重點始終是在我們多元化的業務模式和才華橫溢的團隊的推動下提供長期股東價值，這兩者都使我們能夠在任何經濟環境下相對於我們的行業表現良好。這一點在上半年行業（聽不清楚）壓力很大的時候再次得到了證明，我們公司已經做好了充分的準備。

Our disciplined risk management, which extends beyond the credit risk management that has long been a strength resulted in strong levels of capital and liquidity at an important time. We took advantage of this position to thoughtfully grow when others are pulling back. We've made real investments in growing our core C&I while also investing in people in new markets like Central Texas. While the fourth quarter was exceptionally noisy with numerous nonrecurring items, our core results were very strong, resulting in a great starting point for 2024.

我們嚴格的風險管理超越了長期以來的強項信用風險管理，在重要時刻實現了強勁的資本和流動性水準。當其他人退縮時，我們利用這個位置進行深思熟慮的成長。我們在發展核心 C&I 方面進行了真正的投資，同時也對德州中部等新市場的人才進行了投資。儘管第四季的非經常性專案異常嘈雜，但我們的核心業績非常強勁，為 2024 年創造了一個良好的起點。

We continue to make strategic decisions to deploy our capital where growth and returns are highest. This was reflected in our decision to exit our insurance brokerage and consulting business in the fourth quarter. This resulted in a pretax gain of $28 million after transaction expense, which we use to opportunistically restructure a small portion of our available-for-sale securities portfolio, which will be accretive to the interest revenue and the margin in the months ahead. Staying on this slide, our efficiency ratio was 72% for the quarter, that falls to 67%, excluding the impact of the FDIC special assessment and the activity related to the sale of our insurance brokerage and consulting business, which Marty will highlight later.

我們繼續做出策略決策，將我們的資本部署到成長和回報最高的地方。這反映在我們第四季度退出保險經紀和諮詢業務的決定。這導致扣除交易費用後 2800 萬美元的稅前收益，我們用它來機會性地重組我們可供出售證券投資組合的一小部分，這將增加未來幾個月的利息收入和利潤。繼續這張投影片，我們本季的效率率為72%，不包括FDIC 特別評估以及與出售我們的保險經紀和諮詢業務相關的活動的影響（馬蒂稍後將重點介紹這一點），該效率率降至67%。

Let me briefly diverge and comment on the FDIC special assessment, which I understand most will see as nonrecurring and normalize for the period. The FDIC's methodology was flawed and did not use the root cause of the issue, which was low levels of fully loaded tangible capital caused by poor asset liability risk management decisions. The final rule was disappointing as they ignored many thoughtful comment letters, including our own. They announced the public hearing, subsequently canceled the public hearing before voted 3-2 along partisan lines to adopt the final rule. This continues a disconcerting trend of increasing partisanship in banking regulation.

讓我對 FDIC 特別評估進行簡要的闡述和評論，我理解大多數人會將其視為非經常性評估並在此期間正常化。 FDIC 的方法有缺陷，並且沒有抓住問題的根本原因，即不良的資產負債風險管理決策導致滿載有形資本水準較低。最終的規則令人失望，因為他們忽略了許多深思熟慮的評論信，包括我們自己的。他們宣布舉行公開聽證會，隨後又取消了公開聽證會，然後按照黨派路線以 3 比 2 的投票結果通過了最終規則。這延續了銀行監理中黨派之爭日益加劇的令人不安的趨勢。

U.S. is the only country that has allowed partisanship to invade the banking regulatory process. Banking is a noble profession. We are well aligned with our customers, collaboration with our industry is necessary and a missing element today. Moving on, we believe the strategic decisions and investments we've made this year have us well positioned for success in the long term, and our diverse operating model will continue to operate successfully in any market environment going forward.

美國是唯一允許黨派之爭侵入銀行監理程序的國家。銀行業是個崇高的職業。我們與客戶保持良好的一致，與我們的行業的合作是必要的，也是當今所缺乏的要素。繼續前進，我們相信今年做出的策略決策和投資使我們為長期成功做好了準備，我們的多元化營運模式將在未來的任何市場環境中繼續成功運作。

Turning to Slide 5. Period-end loan balances increased $181 million or approximately 1% linked quarter, with growth in both C&I and commercial real estate. Loan growth did slow in the fourth quarter, but our teams remain confident in our pipelines as we move forward. Both period-end and average deposits continue to grow this quarter. Our loan-to-deposit ratio was stable at 70.3%, remaining well below our peers and providing significant on balance sheet liquidity to meet future loan or (inaudible) liquidity demand. While our cost of deposits continued to increase this quarter, the pace was less than half the level we've experienced in previous 3 quarters, allowing our net interest margin to stabilize. Marty will comment more about net interest revenues, but we believe we are very close to the trough. Our credit remains very strong, and we have a combined reserve of $326 million or 1.36% of outstanding loans at quarter end, which is considerably above the median of our peer group.

轉向幻燈片 5。期末貸款餘額增加了 1.81 億美元，即環比增長約 1%，其中工商業和商業房地產均出現增長。第四季貸款成長確實放緩，但隨著我們的前進，我們的團隊對我們的管道仍然充滿信心。本季期末存款和平均存款均持續成長。我們的貸存比穩定在 70.3%，遠低於同行，並提供大量的資產負債表流動性，以滿足未來貸款或（聽不清楚）流動性需求。雖然本季我們的存款成本持續上升，但增幅不到前三個季度水準的一半，使我們的淨利差趨於穩定。馬蒂將對淨利息收入發表更多評論，但我們相信我們已經非常接近低谷了。我們的信用仍然非常強勁，季度末我們的準備金總額為 3.26 億美元，佔未償貸款的 1.36%，大大高於同業的中位數。

Finally, we repurchased 700,237 shares this quarter, to reflect our long-term confidence in the company and to take advantage of attractive repurchase valuations. I'll provide additional perspective on the results before starting the Q&A session, but now Marc Maun will review the loan portfolio and our credit metrics in more detail. I'll turn the call over to him.

最後，我們本季回購了 700,237 股股票，以反映我們對公司的長期信心並利用有吸引力的回購估值。在開始問答環節之前，我將提供有關結果的更多觀點，但現在 Marc Maun 將更詳細地審查貸款組合和我們的信用指標。我會把電話轉給他。

Thanks, Stacy. Turning to Slide 7. Period-end loans were $23.9 billion, growing $181 million or almost 1% linked quarter. Total C&I loans increased $84 million or 0.6% linked quarter with year-over-year growth of $591 million or 4.2%. Commercial real estate loans grew $96 million or 1.8% linked quarter and have increased $731 million or 15.9% year-over-year. Compared to December 31, 2020, CRE balances have grown at a modest 4.1% annualized growth rate.

謝謝，史黛西。轉向投影片 7。期末貸款為 239 億美元，成長 1.81 億美元，季增近 1%。工商業貸款總額較上季成長 8,400 萬美元，成長 0.6%，年增 5.91 億美元，成長 4.2%。商業房地產貸款季增 9,600 萬美元，季增 1.8%，年增 7.31 億美元，季增 15.9%。與 2020 年 12 月 31 日相比，商業不動產餘額年化成長率為 4.1%。

Growth this quarter was primarily driven by multifamily properties with an increase of $138 million and industrial facility loans with an increase of $43 million. This growth was partially offset by a decrease of $72 million in office loans, bringing the total office loan portfolio to its lowest point since 2018. The year-over-year CRE growth of $731 million was also driven by multifamily and industrial loans and, again, partially offset by a decline in office loans. We have an internal limit of 185% of Tier 1 capital and reserves to total CRE commitments and we're presently at 172%. That limit is based on total commitments, so we do have ample room for continued modest growth in outstanding CRE balances as construction loans fund up.

本季的成長主要是由增加 1.38 億美元的多戶住宅和增加 4,300 萬美元的工業設施貸款所推動的。這一增長被辦公室貸款減少 7,200 萬美元部分抵消，使辦公室貸款組合總額降至 2018 年以來的最低點。CRE 7.31 億美元的同比增長也是由多戶住宅和工業貸款推動的，並且再次，部分被辦公室貸款的下降所抵消。我們的內部限制是一級資本和儲備佔 CRE 承諾總額的 185%，目前為 172%。這筆限額是基於承諾總額，因此隨著建築貸款資金的增加，未償商業房地產餘額確實有足夠的空間繼續小幅增長。

As of December 31, CRE balances represented 22% of total loans, consistent with the prior quarter, a ratio well below our peers. Combined services and general business loans, our core C&I loans increased $77 million or 1.1% with year-over-year growth of $281 million or 4%. These combined categories are 30% of our total loan portfolio. Health care balances increased $60 million or 1.5% linked quarter and have grown $298 million or 7.8% year-over-year primarily driven by our senior housing sector. Health care loans represented 17% of the total. Energy loan balances decreased $53.5 million linked quarter and have increased $12 million or 0.4% year-over-year with period-end balances at 14% of total period-end loans. Year-over-year, loans have grown $1.3 billion or 6%, excluding PPP loans, Q4 2023 extends the linked-quarter loan growth to 9 consecutive quarters. Our current pipeline is strong and combined C&I and CRE commitments increased 2% linked quarter. We expect continued strong momentum to drive additional loan growth in 2024.

截至 12 月 31 日，商業房地產餘額佔貸款總額的 22%，與上一季一致，這一比例遠低於同業。結合服務和一般商業貸款，我們的核心工商業貸款增加了 7,700 萬美元，即 1.1%，年增 2.81 億美元，即 4%。這些類別合計占我們貸款組合總額的 30%。醫療保健餘額季度增長 6,000 萬美元，增長 1.5%，同比增長 2.98 億美元，增長 7.8%，這主要是由我們的老年住房部門推動的。醫療保健貸款佔總額的17%。能源貸款餘額季減 5,350 萬美元，年增 1,200 萬美元，增幅 0.4%，期末餘額佔期末貸款總額的 14%。貸款年增 13 億美元，成長 6%（不包括 PPP 貸款），2023 年第四季貸款較上季成長已連續 9 個季度成長。我們目前的通路很強大，C&I 和 CRE 的合併承諾比季度增長了 2%。我們預計 2024 年將持續保持強勁勢頭，推動貸款額外成長。

Turning to Slide 8. You can see that our credit quality continues to be exceptionally good across the loan portfolio with credit metrics well below historical norms and pre-pandemic levels. Nonperforming assets, excluding those guaranteed by U.S. government agencies, increased $26 million this quarter. The resulting nonperforming assets to period-end loans and repossessed assets did increase 10 basis points to 0.62%. Nonaccrual loans increased $26 million linked quarter, primarily driven by an increase in health care loans. The increase is consistent with nonaccrual fluctuations in a narrow range experienced over the past 2 years with no indication of systemic issues.

轉向幻燈片 8。您可以看到，我們整個貸款組合的信用品質仍然非常好，信用指標遠低於歷史標準和大流行前的水平。不良資產（不包括美國政府機構擔保的資產）本季增加了 2,600 萬美元。由此產生的不良資產與期末貸款和抵債資產之比確實增加了10個基點至0.62%。非應計貸款季度增加 2,600 萬美元，主要是由於醫療保健貸款增加。這一增長與過去兩年經歷的小幅非應計波動一致，沒有跡象表明存在系統性問題。

Committed criticized assets were 10.2% of Tier 1 capital and reserves at year-end 2023, the second consecutive year below 10.5%, and the third below 13%, compared to an 18% ratio pre pandemic. The provision for credit losses of $6 million in the fourth quarter reflects a stable economic forecast and continued loan growth as well as continued low net charge-offs. Net charge-offs were $4.1 million or 7 basis points annualized for the fourth quarter and have averaged 8 basis points over the last 12 months, continuing the trend of performance far below our historical loss range of 30 to 40 basis points.

截至 2023 年底，受批評資產佔一級資本和儲備的 10.2%，連續第二年低於 10.5%，第三年低於 13%，而疫情前的比例為 18%。第四季信貸損失準備金為 600 萬美元，反映了穩定的經濟預測、持續的貸款成長以及持續較低的淨沖銷。第四季的淨沖銷額為 410 萬美元，即年化 7 個基點，過去 12 個月平均為 8 個基點，繼續保持業績趨勢，遠低於我們 30 至 40 個基點的歷史損失範圍。

Looking forward, we expect net charge-offs to remain below historical norms. The markets continue to be focused on the office segment of real estate, given the trends in workforce preferences. Our exposure to loans secured by office CRE continues to decline as we intentionally manage that segment down, now representing less than 4% of our total loan portfolio. Our office maturities are generally ratable over the next 3 to 4 years, and we have a mini-perm option if the markets are not conducive to long-term financials. The combined allowance for credit losses was $326 million or 1.36% of outstanding loans at quarter end. The reserve is sufficient to cover our nonperforming assets by 2.2x.

展望未來，我們預期淨沖銷將維持在歷史正常水準以下。鑑於勞動力偏好的趨勢，市場繼續關注房地產的辦公領域。我們對辦公室 CRE 擔保的貸款的曝險繼續下降，因為我們有意識地管理該部分，目前占我們貸款組合總額的不到 4%。我們的辦公室期限通常在未來 3 到 4 年內進行評估，如果市場不利於長期財務，我們可以選擇迷你永久。截至季末，信貸損失準備金總額為 3.26 億美元，佔未償還貸款的 1.36%。該準備金足以覆蓋我們 2.2​​ 倍的不良資產。

The total combined allowance is available for all losses and any apples-to-apples industry comparison should include the combined reserves. We expect to maintain an appropriate reserve supporting loan growth and reflect economic conditions. Overall, we remain in a solid credit position today with a stable economic outlook, while our current credit metrics may be unsustainable in weaker economic environment, we have a history of outperformance during past credit cycles and are well positioned should an economic slowdown materialize in the quarters ahead. I'll turn the call over to Scott.

總的組合準備金適用於所有損失，任何同類行業的比較都應包括組合準備金。我們預計將保持適當的準備金來支持貸款成長並反映經濟狀況。總體而言，我們今天仍保持穩健的信貸狀況，經濟前景穩定，雖然我們當前的信貸指標在經濟環境疲弱的情況下可能不可持續，但我們在過去的信貸週期中有著表現優異的歷史，並且如果經濟放緩在未來幾年內實現，我們將處於有利地位。未來幾季。我會把電話轉給史考特。

Thanks, Marc. Turning to Slide 10. Total fees and commissions were $196.8 million, relatively consistent with the previous quarter, However, the previous quarter included record high results for our Wealth Management segment with fourth quarter's wealth results still representing their third highest fee income quarter ever. Trading fees increased $1.1 million as sales activities related to our institutional customers continue to improve with some lift provided by our recent Memphis expansion, partially offset by a linked quarter decline in our MBS trading activities.

謝謝，馬克。轉向幻燈片10。費用和佣金總額為1.968 億美元，與上一季度相對一致。但是，上一季度我們的財富管理部門的業績創下歷史新高，第四季度的財富業績仍然是有史以來第三高的費用收入季度。交易費用增加了 110 萬美元，因為與我們的機構客戶相關的銷售活動繼續改善，我們最近在孟菲斯的擴張帶來了一些提升，但部分被我們 MBS 交易活動的相關季度下降所抵消。

Our bank-wide investment banking activities fell $2.4 million linked quarter as the third quarter benefited from a record quarter for Wealth Public and Corporate Finance Group. Although down from their third quarter record high, the Publican Corporate Finance Group recorded their largest single transaction in their history during the fourth quarter. Wealth Management had a record year in 2023, achieving total revenue of $656 million, which equips the prior record set in 2020 by $140 million, resulting in an annualized 3-year growth rate of 8.4%. This was driven by record 2023 revenue in the majority of our business units, including Corporate Trust, retirement plan and asset services, private wealth, customer hedging and investment banking.

我們全銀行的投資銀行活動環比下降了 240 萬美元，第三季受益於 Wealth Public and Corporate Finance Group 創紀錄的季度業績。儘管低於第三季的歷史新高，Publican Corporate Finance Group 在第四季仍錄得其史上最大的單筆交易。財富管理在 2023 年創下了紀錄，總收入達到 6.56 億美元，比 2020 年創下的紀錄增加了 1.4 億美元，三年年化成長率為 8.4%。這是由我們大多數業務部門 2023 年創紀錄的收入推動的，包括企業信託、退休計劃和資產服務、私人財富、客戶對沖和投資銀行業務。

Transaction card revenue increased $2.5 million and all other fee-generating categories remained relatively unchanged compared to the previous quarter, demonstrating the consistent positive results we see from these business lines. Our assets under management or administration were $104.8 billion at the end of the year, including an asset mix of 43% fixed income, 33% equities, 16% cash and 8% alternatives. Our diverse mix of fee income continues to be a strategic differentiator for us and allows us to perform well in a variety of economic environments. We consistently rank in the top decile for fee income as a percentage of total net interest revenue and noninterest fee income. Our revenue mix has averaged 38% during the last 12 months. With that, I'll turn the call over to Marty.

交易卡收入增加了 250 萬美元，所有其他收費類別與上一季相比保持相對不變，這表明我們從這些業務線中看到了一致的積極成果。截至年底，我們管理或管理的資產為 1,048 億美元，其中資產組合為 43% 固定收益、33% 股票、16% 現金和 8% 另類投資。我們多樣化的費用收入組合仍然是我們的策略優勢，並使我們能夠在各種經濟環境中表現良好。我們的費用收入佔淨利息收入和非利息費用收入總額的百分比始終名列前茅。過去 12 個月，我們的收入組合平均為 38%。這樣，我會將電話轉給馬蒂。

Thank you, Scott. I'd like to start by describing a few of this quarter's unusual items as some of them impact multiple line items. The sale of our insurance brokerage and consulting business resulted in a onetime pretax gain of $31 million, which is included in the other gains net line item in the income statement. There were also 2 components of transaction-related expenses recorded in NIE, $2.5 million reflected in professional fees and services and $925,000 included in personnel expense, which produced a net gain of $28 million. We took advantage of that opportunity to reposition our available-for-sale portfolio, resulting in pretax losses of $28 million, which is reported in the loss on available-for-sale securities line item. The total of $40.5 million reported in the other gains net line item includes the $31 million insurance sale gain as well as $5.9 million of gain related to market value increases on deferred compensation assets which is effectively offset with $5.4 million of increased personnel expense this quarter.

謝謝你，斯科特。我想先描述本季的一些不尋常項目，因為其中一些項目會影響多個訂單項目。出售我們的保險經紀和諮詢業務帶來了 3,100 萬美元的一次性稅前收益，該收益包含在損益表中的其他淨收益項目中。 NIE 中還記錄了 2 個與交易相關的費用組成部分，其中 250 萬美元反映在專業費用和服務中，925,000 美元包括在人員費用中，產生了 2800 萬美元的淨收益。我們利用這個機會重新定位了我們的可供出售投資組合，導致稅前損失 2,800 萬美元，該損失計入可供出售證券行項目的損失中。其他淨收益項目中報告的總計4,050 萬美元包括3,100 萬美元的保險銷售收益以及與遞延補償資產市場價值增加相關的590 萬美元收益，該收益被本季度增加的540 萬美元人事費用有效抵消。

The fourth quarter also included $3.1 million of accelerated recognition of tax expense as the result of exiting 3 low income housing tax credit investments. Without that item, the effective tax rate for the quarter would have been 23.1%. Turning to Slide 12. Fourth quarter net interest revenue was $296.7 million, a $4.2 million decrease the linked quarter. Net interest margin was 2.64%, a 5 basis point decrease compared to Q3. This quarter reflected a significant easing of deposit pricing pressure compared to recent quarters. Interest-bearing deposit costs increased 26 basis points in the current quarter. However, this is the slowest pace we have realized since the Federal Reserve started raising Fed funds rate in early '23.

第四季還包括因退出 3 項低收入住房稅收抵免投資而加速確認的稅收費用 310 萬美元。如果沒有該項目，本季的有效稅率將為 23.1%。轉向投影片 12。第四季淨利息收入為 2.967 億美元，比上一季減少 420 萬美元。淨利差為2.64%，較第三季下降5個基點。與最近幾季相比，本季存款定價壓力顯著緩解。本季計息存款成本增加了 26 個基點。然而，這是自 23 年初聯準會開始提高聯邦基金利率以來我們所實現的最慢速度。

Our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta increased to 63% for the fourth quarter. DDA as a percent of total deposits came down to 27% as of December 31. This slide shows net interest margin and net interest revenue with and without the impact of the trading business to better highlight trends and comparability. For the fourth quarter, net interest margin, excluding the impact of trading assets was 3.03% versus 3.14% in the third quarter. I expect to see a small decline in net interest margin going into Q1, followed by relative stability after that. Growth in earning assets during the quarter was driven primarily by C&I and CRE loans.

第四季我們的累計計息存款貝塔值增加至 63%。截至 12 月 31 日，DDA 佔總存款的百分比下降至 27%。這張投影片顯示了有和沒有交易業務影響的淨利差和淨利息收入，以更好地突出趨勢和可比性。第四季淨利差（不包括交易資產的影響）為 3.03%，而第三季為 3.14%。我預計第一季淨利差將小幅下降，之後將相對穩定。本季獲利資產的成長主要是由工商業和商業房地產貸款推動的。

Turning to Slide 13. Liquidity and capital continue to be very strong on an absolute basis and versus peers. Total deposits grew $367 million on a period-end basis, and the loan-to-deposit ratio decreased just slightly to 70.3%. This is stronger than our pre-pandemic level, well below the median of our peer banks and positions us well for future loan growth. Average total deposits increased $388 million linked quarter. With average interest-bearing deposits up $1.2 billion, partially offset by a $779 million decline in demand deposits.

轉向投影片 13。與同業相比，絕對基礎上的流動性和資本仍然非常強勁。期末存款總額增加3.67億美元，貸存比小幅下降至70.3%。這比我們大流行前的水平要強，遠低於同行銀行的中位數，這使我們為未來的貸款成長做好了準備。平均總存款較上季增加 3.88 億美元。平均計息存款增加 12 億美元，部分被活期存款減少 7.79 億美元所抵銷。

Brokered CDs remain an insignificant amount of our funding and decreased slightly in the fourth quarter. Our tangible common equity ratio is 8.29%, up 55 basis points, due in large part to term interest rates falling late in the fourth quarter. Adjusted TCE, including the impact of unrealized losses on held to maturity securities is 8.02%. CET1 is 12.1% and if adjusted for AOCI would be 10.5%. We have sufficient capital to support continued organic growth and opportunistic share buyback with a high degree of certainty knowing that the recent regulatory capital proposal is primarily focused on banks over $100 billion.

經紀 CD 在我們的資金中所佔的比例仍然微不足道，並且在第四季度略有下降。我們的有形普通股比率為 8.29%，上升 55 個基點，這在很大程度上是由於第四季末定期利率下降。調整後的 TCE（包括持有至到期證券的未實現損失的影響）為 8.02%。 CET1 為 12.1%，如果根據 AOCI 進行調整，則為 10.5%。我們有足夠的資本來高度確定地支持持續的自然成長和機會性股票回購，因為我們知道最近的監管資本提案主要針對超過 1000 億美元的銀行。

Turning to Slide 14. Linked quarter expenses increased $59.8 million, up 18.4% driven primarily by the $43.8 million FDIC special assessment. Personnel expense grew $12.2 million due to 4 primary factors. Regular compensation increased $3.2 million due to salaries related to business expansion and expenses related to the sale of the insurance business. Sales-related activities led to a $4.0 million increase in cash-based incentive compensation. Deferred compensation expense, which is driven by market valuations, increased $5.4 million linked quarter. And lastly, employee benefits increased $1.1 million linked quarter due to seasonal increases in health insurance costs. Non-personnel operating expenses grew $3.3 million, excluding the increase in FDIC insurance expense was $2.5 million related to expenses on the sale of our insurance brokerage and consulting business. We also made a $1.5 million contribution to the BOKF Foundation in our continuing efforts to support the communities we serve.

轉向幻燈片 14。相關季度支出增加 5,980 萬美元，成長 18.4%，主要是由於 FDIC 4,380 萬美元的特別評估。由於 4 個主要因素，人員費用增加了 1,220 萬美元。由於與業務擴張相關的工資以及與出售保險業務相關的費用，常規薪酬增加了 320 萬美元。銷售相關活動導致現金激勵薪酬增加 400 萬美元。受市場估值推動的遞延薪酬費用較上季增加了 540 萬美元。最後，由於健康保險成本的季節性增加，員工福利比上季增加了 110 萬美元。非人事營運費用增加了 330 萬美元，不包括與出售保險經紀和諮詢業務相關的 FDIC 保險費用增加 250 萬美元。我們也向 BOKF 基金會捐款 150 萬美元，以持續努力支持我們所服務的社區。

Turning to Slide 15. I'll cover our expectations for 2024. We expect mid- to upper single-digit annualized loan growth. Economic conditions in our geographic footprint remain favorable and continue to be supported by business in migration from other markets. The competitive environment for loans should be a tailwind for us. We expect to continue holding our available-for-sale securities portfolio flat and to maintain a neutral interest rate risk position. We expect total deposits to grow modestly and the loan-to-deposit ratio to remain near 70%. Currently, we are assuming no additional rate changes by the Federal Reserve in 2024.

轉向投影片 15。我將介紹我們對 2024 年的預期。我們預計年化貸款成長將達到中上個位數。我們地理範圍內的經濟狀況仍然有利，並繼續受到其他市場的業務遷移的支持。貸款的競爭環境應該對我們有利。我們預計將繼續維持可供出售證券投資組合不變，並維持中性利率風險立場。我們預計存款總額將溫和成長，貸存比將維持在 70%附近。目前，我們假設聯準會在 2024 年不會進一步調整利率。

We believe the margin will migrate slightly lower in Q1 of 2024 and expect net interest income to be near $1.2 billion for full year '24. In aggregate, we expect total fees and commissions revenue in a range of $825 million to $850 million for 2024. Excluding the FDIC special assessment, we expect expenses to increase at a mid-single-digit growth rate as we continue to invest in strategic growth and technology initiatives with revenue growth following at a slight lag. As revenue growth is realized in 2024, we expect the efficiency ratio to migrate downward to approximately 65%.

我們認為 2024 年第一季的利潤率將略有下降，並預計 24 年全年淨利息收入將接近 12 億美元。總的來說，我們預計2024 年費用和佣金總收入將在8.25 億美元至8.5 億美元之間。不包括FDIC 特別評估，我們預計隨著我們繼續投資於戰略增長，費用將以中個位數成長率成長收入成長略有滯後的技術舉措。隨著 2024 年實現營收成長，我們預計效率比率將下降至 65% 左右。

Our combined allowance level is above the median of our peers, and we expect to maintain a strong credit reserve. Given our expectations for loan growth and the strength of our credit quality, we expect near-term provision expense to remain low and trend towards our normal credit costs in the second half of 2024. Changes in the economic outlook will impact our provision expense. Additionally, we expect to continue opportunistic share repurchase activity. I'll now turn the call back over to Stacy Kymes for closing commentary.

我們的綜合準備金水準高於同業的中位數，我們預計將維持強勁的信貸儲備。鑑於我們對貸款成長的預期和信貸品質的實力，我們預計短期撥備費用將保持在較低水平，並在 2024 年下半年趨向正常信貸成本。經濟前景的變化將影響我們的撥備費用。此外，我們預計將繼續機會主義的股票回購活動。現在我將把電話轉回給 Stacy Kymes 進行結束評論。

Thanks, Marty. This quarter (inaudible) period on the end of the year with the second highest earnings BOK Financial has ever achieved. As many banks struggled in the turbulent economic environment, we proved once again that our strategically diverse revenue mix is built to withstand any storm. While other banks may be pulling back, we have positioned ourselves to be in a great liquidity and capital position to organically grow our business and perform very well in 2024. We have strong pipelines going into 2024. We've expanded our market reach. Our credit quality remains very strong, and our fee income businesses are positioned for solid growth. I'm very proud of the entire BOK Financial team that have worked so hard to deliver these strong results. With that, we are pleased to take your questions. Operator?

謝謝，馬蒂。年底的本季（聽不清楚）是 BOK Financial 有史以來第二高的獲利。當許多銀行在動盪的經濟環境中掙扎時，我們再次證明，我們的策略多元化收入組合能夠抵禦任何風暴。雖然其他銀行可能會撤退，但我們已將自己定位為擁有良好的流動性和資本狀況，可以有機地發展我們的業務，並在2024 年表現出色。我們擁有進入2024 年的強大管道。我們已經擴大了市場覆蓋範圍。我們的信用品質仍然非常強勁，我們的手續費收入業務也有望穩健成長。我為整個 BOK Financial 團隊感到非常自豪，他們付出了巨大的努力才取得了這些強勁的業績。因此，我們很高興回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Jon Arfstrom。

Question for you, Marty. This is the question I've had a few times this morning on your numbers. Just some banks are assuming 0 rate cuts, other assuming 2 to 4, others are saying 6. What is your net interest income and margin outlook look like with a few cuts and then maybe as much as 6 cuts. And I want to follow up and ask on fees as well, but maybe just net interest income first.

有個問題要問你，馬蒂。這是我今天早上多次就你們的電話號碼提出的問題。只是一些銀行假設降息0 次，其他銀行假設降息2 到4 次，還有一些銀行假設降息6 次。在幾次降息、甚至可能降息6 次的情況下，您的淨利息收入和利潤率前景如何。我也想跟進並詢問費用，但也許首先只是淨利息收入。

Yes, that's a great question, Jon. And yes, our exposure to rates declining is actually very small, it's actually de minimis. But more importantly, if you get the forward curve with 4 or 6 cuts in that range, that winds up with a steeper curve, and that's actually better for us. So in those scenarios where you've got the Fed cutting this year, it actually be marginally better for us.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，喬恩。是的，我們面臨利率下降的風險實際上非常小，實際上是微不足道的。但更重要的是，如果您在該範圍內獲得 4 或 6 次削減的遠期曲線，最終會出現更陡峭的曲線，這實際上對我們來說更好。因此，在聯準會今年降息的情況下，實際上對我們來說稍微好一些。

Okay. So -- and you're referring to the $1.2 billion guide. So you're saying if we get more cuts, that could go higher. Okay, good to hear. And then, I guess, a question for Scott as well. If I'm assuming some of the fee guidance that you're giving us assumes flat rates, what does lower -- what would lower short-term rates do to some of your trading businesses and other fee income businesses?

好的。所以——你指的是 12 億美元的指南。所以你是說如果我們削減更多，那可能會更高。好的，很高興聽到。然後，我想，這也是史考特的問題。如果我假設您向我們提供的一些費用指引採用統一費率，那麼短期利率下降會對您的一些交易業務和其他費用收入業務產生什麼影響？

Right. So the 2 big beneficiaries of that decline would be in our mortgage entity itself with our mortgage originations in the mortgage group and then a pretty immediate increase in our mortgage trading, our MBS activity, both as they have historically, with lower rates have outperformed significantly in those lower rate environments. So we'd get significant benefit from both of that market backdrop if rates were to rise -- I mean, to decrease, I'm sorry.

正確的。因此，這種下降的兩大受益者將是我們的抵押貸款實體本身，我們的抵押貸款起源於抵押貸款集團，然後我們的抵押貸款交易、我們的MBS活動立即增加，就像歷史上一樣，利率較低，表現明顯優於其他銀行在那些較低利率的環境。因此，如果利率上升，我的意思是，我很抱歉，利率下降，我們將從這兩個市場背景中獲得巨大的利益。

Okay. You guys would actually welcome some cutting on the short end.

好的。你們實際上會歡迎在短端進行一些削減。

There's no doubt about that. Mortgages are performing very well for the environment, but it's really at an all-time kind of low in terms of where we're at from a production perspective. And so any kind of movement downward in rates is really going to help that. And then that correspondingly is also going to help create more inventory, if you will, for the mortgage trading aspect of our business as well.

毫無疑問。抵押貸款對環境的影響非常好，但從生產角度來看，它確實處於歷史最低水平。因此，任何形式的利率下調確實會有所幫助。如果你願意的話，相應地也將有助於為我們業務的抵押貸款交易方面創造更多庫存。

And so that level of production and activity revenue generation on the institutional trading group has maintained that flattish level with the pickup in other categories. So our municipal trading activity has offset the declines in the MBS. But we would see that pickup in MBS, which we think would give us a lift overall.

因此，機構交易集團的生產和活動創收水準與其他類別的回升保持持平。因此，我們的市政交易活動抵消了MBS 的下跌。但我們會看到 MBS 的回升，我們認為這會為我們帶來整體提升。

Our next question is from Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Winter 和 D.A.戴維森。

I had a question on the loan side. Can you just talk about borrower sentiment today versus 90 days ago? And then just if you could elaborate on that point that the competitive environment should be actually a tailwind for you guys.

我有一個關於貸款方面的問題。您能談談今天與 90 天前相比的借款人情緒嗎？然後，如果您能詳細說明這一點，競爭環境實際上應該對您來說是一種順風。

Yes. This is Marc. You're absolutely right about it being a tailwind for us. Given our situation with liquidity and capital position and solid credit quality, we feel very comfortable that we are out pursuing loan opportunities across our footprint and across all our lines of business. And we're trying to take advantage of some of the peer banks that are cutting back a little bit or pulling back for their various reasons. So that is the effort as the focus of all our sales teams. And I don't think there's any particular area that we're shying away from right now. As far as borrower sentiment goes, that's -- we've always been focused on customer selection. So we're going to be focused on ones that are well positioned to grow or to expand during this time frame and we'll support those companies as we see appropriately.

是的。這是馬克。你說這對我們來說是一種順風，這是完全正確的。鑑於我們的流動性和資本狀況以及可靠的信用質量，我們對在我們的業務範圍和所有業務領域尋求貸款機會感到非常放心。我們正試圖利用一些同業銀行的優勢，這些銀行因為各種原因而稍微削減開支或撤資。因此，這是我們所有銷售團隊的工作重點。我認為我們現在沒有迴避任何特定領域。就借款人的情緒而言，我們一直專注於客戶的選擇。因此，我們將專注於那些在這段時間內能夠成長或擴張的公司，我們將支持那些我們認為適當的公司。

And Peter, the footprint gives us a lot of tailwind too. When you think about just the economic expansion that's happening in Texas, broadly, the new market we opened with San Antonio and Austin, Phoenix is doing very, very well. Denver's hanging in there really well. So the footprint is going to give us some tailwind there, too, just by having better economic growth in the footprint states, and I think you're going to get nationally as well. I think the only real concern I have the risk to our guidance on loan growth really is commercial real estate. There's some risk that as the year goes along, we get a higher elevated level of payoffs which could mute the total loan growth a little bit. But overall, we feel very good about the guidance that we provided given our footprint.

彼得，足跡也為我們帶來了很多順風。當你考慮到德州正在發生的經濟擴張時，總的來說，我們與聖安東尼奧和奧斯汀、菲尼克斯開闢的新市場做得非常非常好。丹佛的表現真的很好。因此，足跡也將為我們帶來一些順風，只要在足跡各州實現更好的經濟成長，我認為全國各地也將得到改善。我認為，我對貸款成長指引面臨的唯一真正擔憂的是商業房地產。存在一些風險，隨著時間的推移，我們獲得更高水準的回報，這可能會稍微抑制總貸款成長。但總的來說，考慮到我們的足跡，我們對我們提供的指導感到非常滿意。

Got it. And then on credit, Marc, you mentioned the health care. Could you just give a little bit more color about the $40 million increase in health care nonperforming loans?

知道了。然後，馬克，你提到了醫療保健。您能否對醫療保健不良貸款增加 4000 萬美元提供更多說明？

Yes. I mean, health care loans now account for 17% of our overall loan portfolio. And we have an occasional loan here or there that we've had good management support of inside it, but things haven't progressed as they expected, and we had to put those into more of a workout situation. One of them is more of an ongoing senior housing. One of them is more of a private pay situation. So they're not even in the same sides of the business. They're just -- we will have one-off nonperforming credits like that, they're just not a reflection of anything we see systemic in the health care business. And I guess if I'm going to add anything, if you look at our nonperforming loans over time, they have operated for the last numerous quarters in a very narrow range. And if we go back and look, some quarters, it's one of our other portfolios that adds to it. It's another quarter, it's a different portfolio. And this quarter just happened to be a couple of one-off deals in health care, and we'll address those and be able to manage that, we believe, ongoing in a very narrow range with low charge-offs as we've had for a number of years now.

是的。我的意思是，醫療保健貸款現在占我們整體貸款組合的 17%。我們偶爾會有一筆貸款，我們在內部得到了良好的管理支持，但事情並沒有像他們預期的那樣進展，我們不得不將這些更多地投入到鍛煉中。其中之一更多的是正在進行的高級住房。其中之一更多的是私人支付的情況。所以他們甚至不在業務的同一側。它們只是——我們將會有這樣的一次性不良信貸，它們只是不能反映我們在醫療保健行業看到的任何系統性問題。我想，如果我要補充什麼的話，如果你看看我們一段時間內的不良貸款，你會發現它們在過去的幾個季度中一直在一個非常狹窄的範圍內運作。如果我們回頭看看，在某些季度，我們的其他投資組合之一會增加這一點。又是一個季度，這是一個不同的投資組合。本季度恰好是醫療保健領域的幾筆一次性交易，我們將解決這些問題，並能夠在一個非常狹窄的範圍內進行管理，並像我們以前那樣以較低的沖銷率進行管理。已經好幾年了。

Peter, just broadly, I mean, credit is a strength. I mean, if you look at where we are compared to pre-pandemic, we're not quite half in terms of our criticized and classified levels, nonperforming levels are strong. I mean charge-offs this quarter were $4 million. I mean, obviously not sustainable. But I think where we're positioned and where we have performed historically, credit is very apparent that it's a strength right now. And I think as we look forward, we still feel -- like in the guidance that Marty provided, we still feel pretty good that at least over the next couple of quarters, we don't expect charge-offs to be materially elevated.

彼得，我的意思是，從廣義上講，信用是一種優勢。我的意思是，如果你看看我們與大流行前相比，我們的批評和分類水平還不到一半，不良水平很高。我的意思是本季沖銷額為 400 萬美元。我的意思是，這顯然不可持續。但我認為我們所處的位置以及我們歷史上的表現，信用是非常明顯的，它現在是一種優勢。我認為，當我們展望未來時，我們仍然感覺 - 就像馬蒂提供的指導一樣，我們仍然感覺很好，至少在接下來的幾個季度中，我們預計沖銷不會大幅增加。

Our next question is from Ben Gerlinger with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ben Gerlinger。

I was curious, the growth side looks pretty good. Are there -- a little bit better than I would have guessed, but are you seeing people step back or risk-adjusted spreads being a little bit more appropriate that you're willing to lean into the growth? Just any color on rates you're getting as well.

我很好奇，成長方面看起來相當不錯。是否比我想像的要好一點，但是您是否看到人們退縮或風險調整後的利差更合適，以至於您願意順應增長？您所獲得的費率也可以是任何顏色。

No, I'd say, generally speaking, I mean, it depends on what segment you're looking at from a spread perspective. I would say on the larger corporate deals, there is some spread enhancement that's coming as a result of maybe a liquidity premium in the marketplace that the larger banks are requiring from that perspective on the commercial banking at the lower end, there's probably not a lot of spread enhancement that's happening. There's still more competition there. Part of it is mix. As the mix shifts around over time, that can change our spreads just a little bit because there are higher spreads in the specialty lines of business than there are in traditional C&I.

不，我想說，一般來說，我的意思是，這取決於您從傳播角度來看哪個細分市場。我想說的是，在較大的企業交易中，利差會增加，這可能是由於市場上的流動性溢價所致，從這個角度來看，大型銀行對低端商業銀行業務的要求可能並不高。正在發生的傳播增強。那裡還有更多的競爭。其中一部分是混合。隨著時間的推移，組合發生變化，這可能會稍微改變我們的利差，因為專業業務領域的利差比傳統商業和工業領域的利差更高。

But I think what we saw is the fact that we're not just open for business, but we're actively prospecting, looking for new customers, trying to use this opportunity to grow very thoughtfully is creating opportunities for us. And really, we had several deals that kind of pushed into the first quarter. We were hopeful would have closed in the fourth quarter. So we're optimistic about our loan pipelines and what we're hearing from our customers and prospects as we think about loan growth in 2024.

但我認為我們看到的事實是，我們不僅對業務開放，而且我們正在積極開拓、尋找新客戶，試圖利用這個機會進行深思熟慮的成長，這為我們創造了機會。事實上，我們有幾筆交易被推遲到了第一季。我們希望能在第四季關閉。因此，在考慮 2024 年的貸款成長時，我們對我們的貸款管道以及我們從客戶和潛在客戶那裡聽到的消息感到樂觀。

Got you. That's helpful color. And then I know the trading business is kind of the front end of the curve. Do you need consistent Fed cuts to really see that start to work? Or is it just kind of the implications, any kind of thoughts on what you might expect in terms of a cadence (inaudible) forward curve is correct.

明白你了。這是有用的顏色。然後我知道貿易業務是曲線的前端。聯準會是否需要持續降息才能真正發揮作用？或者這只是一種暗示，任何關於節奏（聽不清楚）前向曲線的想法都是正確的。

I think in the trading business, even without changes in rates, that business has momentum given the investments we've made in expanding in the Memphis, et cetera. And so it would be incremental on top of what we already expect to be a growth trend if we get forward curve plays out.

我認為在貿易業務中，即使利率沒有變化，考慮到我們在孟菲斯等地擴張的投資，該業務也有動力。因此，如果我們的遠期曲線發揮作用，這將是我們已經預期的成長趨勢之上的增量。

Ben, were you talking about NIR or the fee businesses?

Ben，你是在談論 NIR 還是收費業務？

The fee. The fee businesses.

費用。收費業務。

Yes. I think Marty answered that as it relates to the fee businesses for sure.

是的。我認為馬蒂回答了這個問題，因為這肯定與收費業務有關。

Our next question is from Matt Olney with Stephens Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Matt Olney。

Great. Going back to the fee discussion, and I think Scott touched on this briefly with Jon's question. But just take a step back and help us appreciate the drivers of that $24 million guidance for fees and commissions. Various components of that through each one of your fee businesses. I think that guidance implies like a high single-digit growth in '24. What are the major drivers in the tractors of that guidance?

偉大的。回到費用討論，我認為斯科特在喬恩的問題中簡短地談到了這一點。但退後一步，幫助我們了解 2,400 萬美元費用和佣金指導的驅動因素。透過您的每一項收費業務來實現這一點的各個組成部分。我認為該指導意味著 24 年將實現高個位數成長。該指南拖拉機的主要驅動因素是什麼？

Yes. Why don't I start on that, Matt. So I think that the businesses that probably have the greatest opportunity are in the brokerage and trading where we've made investments there, and we've got great momentum in that business. Fiduciary asset management, I think we'll have customary growth in that business plus we think that asset valuations are going to give us a little bit of wind at our backs from an AUM perspective, and that will flow through to new growth rates. And then mortgage actually has opportunity there, both on the production side and on the servicing side. And so we expect to see good numbers out of that line of business on a percentage growth perspective.

是的。為什麼我不開始呢，馬特。因此，我認為最有機會的業務可能是我們在那裡進行投資的經紀和交易業務，並且我們在該業務中擁有巨大的動力。信託資產管理，我認為該業務將出現常規增長，我們認為從資產管理規模的角度來看，資產估值將為我們帶來一些支持，這將帶來新的增長率。然後，抵押貸款實際上在生產方面和服務方面都有機會。因此，從成長百分比的角度來看，我們預期該業務線將取得良好的業績。

Matt, this is Scott. I think that when you look at that total category, as I mentioned earlier in the call, the thing that we're pleased about is the fact that we're not seeing any one component carry the load. If you look at multiple quarters now and the year as a whole, we're seeing heightened levels, record levels of revenue generation across all the categories of Wealth Management, which, as you know, is very well diversified both by product set, customer set, geographically where we're serving international market in many of those operating units.

馬特，這是史考特。我認為，當您查看整個類別時，正如我之前在電話會議中提到的那樣，我們感到高興的是我們沒有看到任何一個組件承擔負載。如果你看看現在的多個季度和全年，我們會看到財富管理所有類別的創收水平都在提高，創紀錄的水平，正如你所知，財富管理在產品集、客戶方面都非常多元化。我們在許多營運單位中為國際市場提供服務的地理位置。

So it's broadly across the board, where we've seen investment -- historical investments in our Corporate Trust business, in our Asset Management business, the trading pieces, as Marty mentioned, but all of those together and combined or what produces the result that gives us optimism that we're not dependent upon those Fed rate cuts to continue to see momentum and growth in the business lines. No doubt if we see, and it's less about the rate cuts. It's more about some steepness to the curve benefits the trading businesses because we've now been operating on a decade where we didn't have any slope to the curve, which in sense no one to go out. So if we do see some steepness in the curve, we'll see, but I think we're extremely well positioned if that were to shape out.

因此，正如馬蒂所提到的，我們看到了投資——我們的企業信託業務、資產管理業務、交易部分的歷史投資，但所有這些加在一起並結合起來，或者產生了以下結果：讓我們樂觀地認為，我們並不依賴聯準會降息來繼續看到業務的勢頭和成長。毫無疑問，如果我們看到的話，這與降息無關。更多的是，曲線的陡度有利於貿易業務，因為我們現在已經運作了十年，曲線沒有任何斜率，從某種意義上說，沒有人可以走出去。因此，如果我們確實看到曲線有些陡峭，我們會看到的，但我認為如果要實現這一點，我們處於非常有利的位置。

Okay. Appreciate the thoughts there, Scott. And then I guess shifting back over to the rate sensitivity. You provided some good commentary being relatively neutral as far as on the NII. What are your early thoughts on deposit betas in a falling rate scenario, whether it's back half of the year or next year, whatever that would be? And how would those betas you think, compare on the way down versus what we just saw on the way up at the bank?

好的。斯科特，欣賞那裡的想法。然後我想回到速率敏感度。就 NII 而言，您提供了一些相對中立的良好評論。在利率下降的情況下，您對存款貝塔值的早期想法是什麼，無論是今年下半年還是明年，無論是什麼？您認為這些貝塔係數在下降過程中與我們剛剛在銀行看到的上升過程中相比會如何？

Yes. So given the fact that over the last couple of quarters, you've seen betas be higher. You're going to see a mirror image of that more or less as we see rates come down in that kind of environment. I mean, as you know, those are not linear, and so you're not going to get the same exact beta at each rate hike. But you'll see relatively high betas on the way down given that you've got a lot of that beta on the driven upside was the larger corporate and wealth balances.

是的。因此，考慮到在過去幾個季度中，您已經看到貝塔值更高。當我們看到利率在這種環境下下降時，你或多或少會看到這種情況的鏡像。我的意思是，正如您所知，這些不是線性的，因此您不會在每次加息時獲得完全相同的貝塔值。但在下跌過程中你會看到相對較高的貝塔係數，因為在上漲過程中貝塔係數很大一部分來自於較大的企業和財富餘額。

Yes. Okay. Fingers crossed. And then just lastly on the expense side. I know those expenses can be lumpy quarter-to-quarter. I think you mentioned a few things that made it more -- a little higher in the fourth quarter. And I see the full year guidance, but any color on where we could start off with earlier in the year in the first quarter on the expense side?

是的。好的。手指交叉。最後是費用方面。我知道這些費用可能會按季度波動。我認為你提到了一些使其在第四季度變得更高的事情。我看到了全年指導，但我們可以在今年早些時候第一季的費用方面從哪裡開始？

Yes. If you take the fourth quarter number, the $384 million and then adjust that for the FDIC special assessment, you get to a $340 million number. So coming out of the gate next quarter, we'd expect to be a little below that.

是的。如果您採用第四季度的數字 3.84 億美元，然後針對 FDIC 特別評估進行調整，您將獲得 3.4 億美元的數字。因此，從下個季度開始，我們預計會略低於這一水平。

Yes. And already pointed out, Matt, I think it's important. There's some BOKF transaction costs that are embedded in some of those line items in the fourth quarter, particularly related to personnel expense and professional fees that you got to think about too is really being part of that sale of that business, not really part of the core run rate of the company.

是的。馬特已經指出，我認為這很重要。第四季的一些項目包含了一些 BOKF 交易成本，特別是與人員費用和專業費用相關的費用，您也必須考慮這些費用實際上是該業務出售的一部分，而不是真正的業務出售的一部分。公司的核心運作率。

Yes. So if you think through some of those unusual items and filter some of those out, you'll get taxes on wages coming up in the first quarter, but that will net down to just a little bit low.

是的。因此，如果你仔細考慮一些不尋常的項目並過濾掉其中一些，你將在第一季收到工資稅，但這將降至一點點低。

Our next question is from Will Jones with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Will Jones。

Marty, just hoping you could help us unpack the margin story. What it looks like in both this flat rate environment that your guidance is kind of predicated off of? And then maybe what the margin does if we do see 2, 3, 4, even 6 rate cuts this coming year. I know you talked about compression next quarter, but then maybe a stable NIM in this flat rate environment, but can you see expansion in that scenario? And I guess just confirm, you all will certainly see NIM expansion if we do get rate cuts?

馬蒂，只是希望你能幫我們解開保證金故事。在您的指導所依據的統一費率環境中，情況是什麼樣的？如果我們明年確實看到 2、3、4 甚至 6 次降息，那麼利潤率可能會發生什麼。我知道您談到了下個季度的壓縮，但在這種統一費率環境中也許會出現穩定的淨息差，但您能看到這種情況下的擴張嗎？我想確認一下，如果我們確實降息，你們一定會看到淨利差擴張？

Yes. So the basic trajectory that we're expecting is margins basically leveled out a little bit down in the first quarter level and then actually just a little bit up at the end of the year is how we think about it for a flat rate scenario, of course, plus or minus the usual drivers and noise around that trend. And then if you've got a forward curve kind of scenario playing out, that would be modestly supportive of the margin percentage in those later quarters when that would play out -- what the steepness would start to play out.

是的。因此，我們預期的基本軌跡是，第一季的利潤率基本上會略有下降，然後在年底實際上會略有上升，這就是我們對統一利率情景的看法，當然，加上或減去該趨勢周圍的常見驅動因素和噪音。然後，如果出現一種遠期曲線情景，那麼當這種情景出現時，這將適度支持後面幾季的利潤率——陡峭程度將開始出現。

Got you. That's helpful. And then where do you feel like we are in the noninterest-bearing remix story? I know balances took another step down this quarter, but do you feel like we're getting close to kind of a leveling out there? Or how do you think about noninterest-bearing deposits into this year?

明白你了。這很有幫助。那你覺得我們在無息混音故事中處於什麼位置？我知道本季餘額又下降了一步，但您是否覺得我們已經接近趨於平穩？或者您如何看待今年的無利息存款？

Yes. So the decline we saw in the fourth quarter was largely as we expected and we talked about that on our Q3 call. So for the first quarter, we do expect another decline that's a little smaller than what we saw in the fourth quarter, but still pretty sizable, pretty close to that size just as you get a combination of some of the rate-driven moves and some seasonal declines that are normal for us in -- as we go into Q1. So you'll see Q1 down another step and then, after that, our expectation is much smaller amounts of shift from noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing for the next couple of quarters. As we just get into the tail phase of that as that naturally plays out.

是的。因此，我們在第四季度看到的下降很大程度上符合我們的預期，我們在第三季的電話會議上討論了這一點。因此，對於第一季度，我們確實預計會出現另一次下降，幅度會比我們在第四季度看到的要小一些，但仍然相當大，非常接近這個規模，就像你得到一些利率驅動的變動和一些利率驅動的變動的組合一樣。當我們進入第一季時，季節性下降對我們來說是正常的。因此，您會看到第一季又下降了一步，然後，我們的預期是在接下來的幾季從無息轉向有息的轉變幅度要小得多。當我們剛剛進入尾部階段時，這自然就會發生。

Okay. Great. And it feels like maybe it's been a while since you've updated thoughts on bank M&A. It feels like there could be some pushes and pulls on M&A into the coming year. Could you just update us on how you feel or how you generally think about M&A in terms of in-market transactions or out of market or size? Just any kind of context you could give would be great.

好的。偉大的。感覺您可能已經有一段時間沒有更新關於銀行併購的想法了。感覺明年的併購可能會受到一些推動和拉動。您能否向我們介紹一下您對市場內交易、市場外交易或規模方面的併購的看法或整體看法？只要你能提供任何類型的背景就很好了。

Yes. So 2 factors. I do think rates are going to have to come down before bank M&A becomes more realistic. You still have purchase accounting issues that are going to happen until some of these securities portfolios and banks that would like to be acquired are better positioned. It's going to create some headwind there until that's resolved. I think for us, broadly, the large bank acquisition is going to be difficult for us to do. There's just not a lot that would fit the profile that we're looking for. We would want to stay largely in the geographic footprint that we're in today. We really like that. We want to continue to grow, particularly in these fast-growing markets like Texas and continue to invest there. It's got to be of sufficient size to move the needle for us, but there's just not a lot to fit that.

是的。所以有兩個因素。我確實認為，在銀行併購變得更加現實之前，利率必須下降。在一些想要被收購的證券投資組合和銀行處於更好的地位之前，您仍然會遇到購買會計問題。在問題解決之前，這將會造成一些阻力。我認為對我們來說，總的來說，大型銀行收購對我們來說將是困難的。只是沒有太多符合我們正在尋找的配置。我們希望很大程度上保持在我們今天所處的地理範圍內。我們真的很喜歡這樣。我們希望繼續成長，特別是在德克薩斯州等快速成長的市場，並繼續在那裡投資。它必須有足夠的尺寸來為我們移動指針，但沒有太多的空間可以容納它。

We're more interested in technology or product acquisitions that could add on and be incremental, much quicker and not distract the whole company from a regulatory approval and conversion process. And so I would put the odd that we find a whole bank acquisition in the next 12 months to be pretty low. And we are continuing to look for things on the product or technologies that they could be accretive to us and valuable to us long term, although there's nothing on the horizon there either.

我們對技術或產品收購更感興趣，這些技術或產品收購可以增加、增量、更快，並且不會分散整個公司對監管審批和轉換流程的注意力。因此，我認為我們發現未來 12 個月內收購整個銀行的可能性相當低。我們正在繼續尋找產品或技術上的東西，它們可以為我們帶來增值並且對我們長期有價值，儘管目前還沒有任何東西。

Our next question is from Timur Braziler with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Timur Braziler。

Starting on the deposit side, do you have what the deposit spot rate was at the end of the year?

從存款方面開始，年底的存款即期利率是多少？

We don't really have a deposit spot rate per se, but our cumulative beta was 63% for the quarter and for the month of December was 64%. So really not a lot different than the full quarter average.

我們本身並沒有存款即期利率，但本季的累積貝塔值為 63%，12 月的累積貝塔值為 64%。所以實際上與整個季度的平均值沒有太大不同。

Okay. And then looking at expenses and trying to take into consideration some of the comments around what happens on the fee income side, if we do get rate cuts. Is the expectation that the expenses grow in an environment where you see some higher revenues from fees? And if that is the case, is the 65% efficiency ratio in a down rate environment still a good base? Or could you actually see some improvement as some of these fee income businesses pick up some more momentum?

好的。然後看看費用，並嘗試考慮一些關於如果我們確實降息的話，費用收入方面會發生什麼的評論。在您看到費用收入增加的環境中，費用是否會增加？如果是這樣的話，在降速環境下 65% 的效率比仍然是一個好的基礎嗎？或者，隨著其中一些收費收入業務的成長勢頭增強，您是否真的會看到一些改善？

I'd say broadly speaking, the 65% is good, but you could see some incremental improvement from just a higher revenue lift overall that would just accelerate that trend.

我想說，從廣義上講，65% 是不錯的，但你可以看到整體收入提升帶來的一些增量改善，這只會加速這一趨勢。

If you think about mortgage, particularly, I mean, mortgage is probably running 90%-plus efficiency today. So if you got any lift there, you're going to get a better efficiency ratio out of that line of business. So Marty is right, I think we're very comfortable with the forward guidance we provided there. But any benefit that we get from a lower rate environment should be incrementally positive to our efficiency ratio.

如果你特別考慮抵押貸款，我的意思是，今天抵押貸款的效率可能超過 90%。因此，如果你在那裡得到了任何提升，你將從該業務線中獲得更好的效率比。所以馬蒂是對的，我認為我們對我們在那裡提供的前瞻性指導感到非常滿意。但我們從較低利率環境中獲得的任何好處都應該對我們的效率比率產生正面的影響。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Brandon King with Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Brandon King。

So I wanted to follow up on trading NIR. And what are you expecting kind of implied in your NII forecast? And if you could kind of give us the puts and takes on how that could play out, just given better rate cuts potentially occurring in the year?

所以我想跟進 NIR 交易。您對 NII 預測隱含的預期是什麼？如果您能為我們介紹一下，考慮到今年可能會出現更好的降息，情況會如何發展？

Yes. So we're -- in our guide, we're just assuming that, that remains roughly constant throughout the year to the extent that you get some steepening that could be a positive for that line item for sure.

是的。因此，在我們的指南中，我們只是假設，全年的情況大致保持不變，只要你得到一些陡峭的程度，這肯定對該訂單項有利。

Okay. And then just another follow-up on credit. So in your guidance, you expect increase in credit costs more towards the later part of 2024 and then you also mentioned kind of a normalized range of 30 to 40 basis points. So is it fair to assume that maybe back half of 2024, we approach that 30 basis points of net charge-offs. Is that how you're thinking about it?

好的。然後是另一個信用後續行動。因此，在您的指導中，您預計 2024 年下半年信貸成本將增加更多，然後您也提到了 30 至 40 個基點的標準化範圍。因此，可以公平地假設，也許到 2024 年下半年，我們的淨沖銷將接近 30 個基點。你是這麼想的嗎？

No. I think we're trying to map our guidance really on provision levels, not charge-off levels. I do think you could see just based on some reversion, you could see charge-off levels come up a little bit in the back half of the year. But Marc talked a little bit about our historical charge-offs. We always guide to 30 to 40 basis points, but it's been a long time since we've seen 40 basis points.

不。我認為我們正在嘗試將我們的指導真正映射到撥備水平，而不是沖銷水平。我確實認為，僅根據一些回歸，您就可以看到沖銷水平在今年下半年有所上升。但馬克談到了我們歷史上的沖銷。我們總是指導30到40個基點，但我們已經很久沒有看到40個基點了。

Yes. I mean if we've been looking back over our history, we have been below 30 basis points of net charge-offs since 2013. It was the last year we hit 30 basis points. So we have operated mainly between less than 10 to 20 for the last 10 to 11 years. So we -- right now, given where our credit is, we don't see the increased level of net charge-offs coming. But as we grow, and as the economic environment changes, that will have the impact on the provision that we have to have and the reserve we have to have. And we're going to keep -- make sure we continue to make that appropriate level of that reserve, reflecting those 2 things. But it's going to be driven by those more than it's going to be driven by net charge-offs.

是的。我的意思是，如果我們回顧我們的歷史，自 2013 年以來，我們的淨沖銷一直低於 30 個基點。去年我們達到了 30 個基點。因此，在過去 10 到 11 年裡，我們的營運數量主要在 10 到 20 之間。因此，目前，考慮到我們的信用狀況，我們認為淨沖銷水準不會增加。但隨著我們的成長，隨著經濟環境的變化，這將對我們必須擁有的供給和儲備產生影響。我們將保持—確保我們繼續保持適當的儲備水平，反映這兩件事。但這將更多地受到這些因素的推動，而不是淨沖銷的推動。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Marty for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將會議轉回給馬蒂致閉幕詞。

Thanks again, everyone, for joining us this morning. If you have any questions, please e-mail us at ir@bokf.com. Have a great day.

再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們。如果您有任何疑問，請發送電子郵件至 ir@bokf.com。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。