The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded.

各位女士、先生，本次會議正在錄音。

Good morning, and welcome to Scotiabank's Q2 '26 earnings call. My name is Meny Grauman, and I'm Head of Investor Relations here at the bank. Presenting to you this morning are Scott Thomson, Scotiabank's President and Chief Executive Officer; Raj Viswanathan, our Chief Financial Officer; and Shannon McGinnis, our Chief Risk Officer. Following our comments, we'll be glad to take your questions.

早安，歡迎參加豐業銀行（Scotiabank）2026 會計年度第二季（Q2 '26）業績電話會議。我是 Meny Grauman，現任本行投資人關係主管。今天上午向各位報告的有：豐業銀行總裁兼執行長 Scott Thomson；財務長 Raj Viswanathan；以及風險長 Shannon McGinnis。在我們發言之後，我們很樂意回答各位的提問。

Also present to take questions are the following Scotiabank executives: Aris Bogdaneris from Canadian Banking; Jacqui Allard from Global Wealth Management; Francisco Aristeguieta from International Banking; and Travis Machen from Global Banking and Markets.

另外，以下豐業銀行高階主管也在場回答提問：加拿大銀行業務的 Aris Bogdaneris；全球財富管理的 Jacqui Allard；國際銀行業務的 Francisco Aristeguieta；以及全球銀行與資本市場的 Travis Machen。

Before we start and on behalf of those speaking today, I will refer you to slide 2 of our presentation, which contains Scotiabank's caution regarding forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，並代表今天發言的各位，我請各位參閱簡報第 2 頁，其中載有豐業銀行對前瞻性陳述的警示說明。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Scott.

接下來，我把電話會議交給 Scott。

Thank you, Meny, and good morning, everyone. Scotiabankers should be proud of this quarter as we continue to drive our business forward and deliver for shareholders even in the face of unexpected geopolitical developments. We remain focused on the needs of our clients as we work to deepen client relationships across our bank.

謝謝你，Meny，各位早安。即使面對突如其來的地緣政治發展，我們仍持續推動業務向前並為股東創造價值，本季的表現值得所有豐業銀行同仁引以為傲。我們持續聚焦客戶需求，並致力於在全行深化客戶關係。

Adjusted earnings came in at $2.7 billion or $2.02 per share. Pre-tax pre-provision earnings were up 16% year-over-year as we continue to drive revenue growth and manage our expenses effectively. Our CET1 ratio was 13.3% even after repurchasing 6.4 million shares in the quarter. And today, we announced a quarterly dividend increase of $0.04 per share, reflecting confidence in our earnings growth.

調整後盈餘為 27 億美元，或每股 2.02 美元。稅前、提存前盈餘（PPTP）年增 16%，反映我們持續推動營收成長並有效管理費用。即使本季回購 640 萬股，我們的普通股權一級資本比率（CET1）仍為 13.3%。此外，我們今天宣布每股季度股利上調 0.04 美元，展現對盈餘成長的信心。

Over the past 12 months, we have returned $7.5 billion in capital to our shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. And looking ahead, we expect to keep this pace while maintaining strong capital ratios. Our capital deployment priority continues to be organic growth, followed by share buybacks and strategic tuck-in acquisitions that fit a well-defined need.

過去 12 個月，我們透過股票回購與股利向股東返還 75 億美元資本。展望未來，我們預期在維持強健資本比率的同時，將持續保持此一返還步調。我們的資本配置優先順序仍以內生成長為先，其次為股票回購，以及符合明確需求的策略性小型併購（tuck-in acquisitions）。

Return on equity for the quarter was 13.2% and remains on track to hit 14%-plus in fiscal 2027, one year ahead of our Investor Day target. Our business mix is shifting, which is resulting in strong revenue growth and higher returns, and we expect those trends to continue into fiscal 2027.

本季股東權益報酬率（ROE）為 13.2%，並仍按計畫在 2027 會計年度達到 14% 以上，較我們投資人日（Investor Day）的目標提前一年。我們的業務組合正在轉變，帶動強勁的營收成長與更高的報酬率，我們預期這些趨勢將延續至 2027 會計年度。

In Canadian Banking, the momentum is building, and we are delivering better results quarter after quarter after quarter. Pre-tax pre-provision earnings were up 13% year-over-year, helped by the fourth consecutive quarter of margin expansion and continued strength in our fee income line as we maintain our focus on growing wealth management, credit card, and insurance revenues.

在加拿大銀行業務方面，動能持續累積，我們一季接一季交出更佳成績。稅前、提存前盈餘年增 13%，主要受惠於連續第四季利差擴大，以及手續費收入持續強勁；我們仍聚焦於擴大財富管理、信用卡與保險收入。

At the same time, we are managing expenses effectively even as we continue to make substantial investments in frontline sales capacity and technology. As a result, Canadian Banking's productivity ratio was down 230 basis points year-over-year, contributing to positive operating leverage for the third consecutive quarter.

同時，即便我們持續在第一線銷售能量與科技方面進行大量投資，我們仍有效控管費用。因此，加拿大銀行業務的生產力比率年減 230 個基點，並連續第三季帶來正向營運槓桿。

Industry-wide term deposit balances continued to contract during the quarter, but we've been able to consistently retain over 90% of retail GIC maturities despite intensifying deposit competition. These flows are either staying in Canadian Banking, where savings and deposits were up 3% year-over-year or are moving into retail mutual funds, where net sales were up significantly year-over-year.

全產業的定期存款餘額在本季持續收縮，但儘管存款競爭加劇，我們仍能一貫地留住超過 90% 到期的零售 GIC（保證投資憑證）。這些資金流向要麼留在加拿大銀行業務（其中儲蓄與存款年增 3%），要麼轉入零售共同基金（其淨銷售額年增幅度顯著）。

A key pillar of our strategy is to grow high-quality, sticky deposits. And earlier this month, we announced the launch of the Scotia High Interest Savings Account, which is one of Canada's first relationship-based accounts that offers tiered, regular interest rates based on a client's total relationship balance across eligible Scotiabank accounts.

我們策略的一個關鍵支柱，是成長高品質、黏著度高的存款。本月稍早，我們宣布推出「Scotia 高利息儲蓄帳戶」，這是加拿大首批以關係為基礎的帳戶之一，會依據客戶在符合資格的豐業銀行帳戶中的整體往來餘額，提供分級的一般利率。

Average loan growth remains in the low single digits. But by the end of the year, we expect to catch up to the broader market, thanks in large part to an acceleration in commercial loan growth. Commercial loans were up 2% sequentially this quarter, and we expect that pace to increase given our robust pipeline growth.

平均放款成長仍維持在低個位數。但我們預期在年底前將追上整體市場，主要歸功於商業放款成長加速。本季商業放款較前一季成長 2%，在我們強勁的案源（pipeline）成長帶動下，我們預期此一增速將進一步提升。

Overall loan growth will also be supported by our small business portfolio, which continues to grow in high single digits. Spot credit card growth is expected to reach mid-single digits by the end of the year, while our mortgage volume should keep pace with peers.

整體放款成長也將受到我們小型企業投資組合的支持，該組合仍以高個位數持續成長。信用卡即期（spot）成長預期在年底前達到中個位數，而我們的房貸量應可與同業保持同步。

In International Banking, pre-tax pre-provision earnings were up 12% year-over-year, helped by revenue growth of 7%. This, combined with strong expense discipline, delivered year-to-date positive operating leverage of 3.2%. Performance in Mexico was particularly strong this quarter with revenue up 8% year-over-year and earnings up 25% year-over-year.

在國際銀行業務方面，稅前、提存前盈餘年增 12%，受惠於 7% 的營收成長。再加上嚴謹的費用控管，使年初至今的正向營運槓桿達到 3.2%。本季墨西哥表現尤其強勁，營收年增 8%，盈餘年增 25%。

Retail loans continued to grow across our footprint by 4% year-over-year with non-mortgages growing by a strong 7%, especially in Mexico and the Caribbean. Commercial loan growth was up 2% quarter-over-quarter and should continue to modestly improve in the second half of the year as we pursue growth thoughtfully and employ a cash management first strategy. Our focus on deposits is also gaining traction, climbing 3% quarter-over-quarter and 5% year-over-year.

零售放款在我們的營運版圖內持續年增 4%，其中非房貸以強勁的 7% 成長，特別是在墨西哥與加勒比地區。商業放款較前一季成長 2%，隨著我們審慎追求成長並採取「現金管理優先」策略，預期下半年將持續溫和改善。我們對存款的聚焦也逐步見效，存款較前一季成長 3%，年增 5%。

Earlier this month, we were proud to sponsor Chile Day 2026, which brought together government and business leaders in New York and Toronto to strengthen Canada-Chile ties and advance investment in this important market. Scotiabank also hosted Mexico's official trade mission to Canada, convening senior government leaders, business executives, and clients. This event was a significant milestone and reinforced Scotiabank's role as a connector across the North American corridor.

本月稍早，我們很榮幸贊助 2026 年智利日（Chile Day 2026），該活動在紐約與多倫多匯聚政府與企業領袖，以強化加智關係並推動在此重要市場的投資。豐業銀行亦接待墨西哥官方赴加貿易代表團，召集政府高層、企業主管與客戶。此活動是一項重要里程碑，並強化豐業銀行作為北美走廊連結者的角色。

In Global Wealth Management, we are continuing to drive our underlying business forward. Net sales for the quarter were at $4.7 billion, 4 times what we had in Q2 2025 and marking our seventh consecutive quarter of positive net flows. ROE came in at 17.9%, up 210 basis points year-over-year.

在全球財富管理方面，我們持續推動核心業務向前。本季淨銷售額為 47 億美元，是 2025 年第二季的 4 倍，並創下連續第七季淨流入為正。股東權益報酬率（ROE）為 17.9%，年增 210 個基點。

Canadian Wealth Management is continuing to benefit from deeper connectivity with Canadian Banking in the form of higher referral volume. Total closed referrals were at $9 billion year-to-date, largely stemming from our retail and small business segments to wealth. Closed referrals between Commercial Banking and Wealth were $2.8 billion or double what we reported in the first half of last year.

加拿大財富管理持續受惠於與加拿大銀行業務更深的連結，帶來更高的轉介量。年初至今已完成（closed）的轉介總額為 90 億美元，主要來自我們的零售與小型企業客群轉介至財富管理。商業銀行與財富管理之間已完成的轉介為 28 億美元，為去年上半年所報告的兩倍。

In our Global Asset Management business, we delivered year-to-date net sales of $3.1 billion and continue to rank third amongst our peers in long-term retail mutual fund sales, up from fifth in the same quarter last year, highlighting the opportunities we have to deepen penetration within our own network. And in our International Wealth business, earnings were up 12% year-over-year and 22% in Mexico.

在全球資產管理業務方面，我們年初至今淨銷售額達 31 億美元，且在長期零售共同基金銷售方面持續位居同業第三，較去年同季的第五名上升，凸顯我們在自有通路內深化滲透率的機會。而在國際財富管理業務方面，盈餘年增 12%，其中墨西哥年增 22%。

This quarter, we were also recognized with eight Euromoney Private Banking Awards across our footprint, and Mexico's asset management unit was recognized by Morningstar with six funds ranked in the top 10 among all four-and five-star funds.

本季，我們亦在營運版圖內獲得《歐洲貨幣》（Euromoney）私人銀行獎共八項肯定；同時，墨西哥的資產管理單位亦獲 Morningstar 表揚，有六檔基金在所有四星與五星基金中名列前十。

Finally, in Global Banking and Markets, revenues were up 9% year-over-year, driven by a 25% year-over-year increase in capital markets. Our deal pipeline is strong, and Q3 has started off on a strong footing with a number of marquee transactions being announced over the past few weeks. Our mortgage capital markets business is accelerating, which is a good example of our US growth strategy in action.

最後，在全球銀行與資本市場方面，營收年增 9%，主要由資本市場年增 25% 所帶動。我們的交易案源（deal pipeline）強勁，第三季開局良好，過去幾週已宣布多筆指標性交易。我們的房貸資本市場業務正在加速，這正是我們美國成長策略落地的良好例證。

GBM loans grew 1% quarter-over-quarter or up 3%, excluding our Asia portfolio, which is in runoff. Growth here should accelerate as the year goes on but will increasingly be driven by our capital market strategy. We will continue to deploy balance sheet through our corporate revolver loan book, but with a focus on customers where we have a broader multiproduct relationship.

GBM 貸款較上季成長 1%，或在排除我們正處於縮減中的亞洲投資組合後成長 3%。隨著年度推進，此處的成長應會加速，但將愈來愈多由我們的資本市場策略所驅動。我們將持續透過企業循環信用貸款（revolver）組合運用資產負債表，但將聚焦於我們擁有更廣泛多產品關係的客戶。

We are focused on improving returns while also growing our loan book and investing in critical technology, including AI. This quarter, Scotiabank announced the launch of Scotia Intelligence and Scotia Navigator. Scotia Intelligence unifies the capabilities, platforms, and governance required to deliver AI securely and at scale for employees and clients globally.

我們專注於提升報酬，同時擴大我們的貸款組合並投資於關鍵科技（包括 AI）。本季，豐業銀行（Scotiabank）宣布推出 Scotia Intelligence 與 Scotia Navigator。Scotia Intelligence 整合了在全球範圍內為員工與客戶安全且大規模交付 AI 所需的能力、平台與治理架構。

And Scotia Navigator puts AI directly into the hands of employees across the bank, including advanced assistance that automates routine tasks and redirect capacity towards more complex, higher-value tasks. Our approach to AI is designed to take us from isolated AI use cases to AI that is embedded across our processes, decision-making, and client interactions in a trusted, efficient,and effective manner.

而 Scotia Navigator 則將 AI 直接交到全行員工手中，包含可自動化例行工作並將產能重新導向更複雜、更高價值任務的進階輔助功能。我們的 AI 方法旨在讓我們從零散的 AI 使用案例，邁向以可信、有效率且有效的方式，將 AI 內嵌於我們的流程、決策制定與客戶互動之中。

Our approach is grounded in four key principles, but at the top of the list is security, which has taken on added importance given the cybersecurity risk posed by advanced AI models. We are embedding security, governance, and controls into the foundation of our AI infrastructure by design, enabling us to scale not just quickly but safely, fully aware of both the opportunities and risks of advanced AI. We are also leveraging AI to strengthen our security posture, including AI-driven scanning and monitoring to proactively identify and mitigate risks.

我們的方法以四項關鍵原則為基礎，而首要原則是安全性；鑑於先進 AI 模型帶來的資安風險，安全性的重要性更為提升。我們在 AI 基礎設施的根基中，以設計即內建（by design）的方式嵌入安全、治理與控管，使我們不僅能快速擴展，更能安全擴展，並充分理解先進 AI 的機會與風險。我們也運用 AI 強化我們的安全態勢，包括以 AI 驅動的掃描與監控，主動識別並降低風險。

Our second principle is flexibility. The AI landscape is evolving rapidly, and we believe that no single model or vendor will dominate over an extended period of time. We have adopted a model-agnostic approach from day one, selecting models based on performance, security, and cost. This approach gives us maximum flexibility with what is a rapidly evolving technology.

我們的第二項原則是彈性。AI 生態系正快速演進，我們相信在相當長的一段時間內，不會有單一模型或供應商能夠長期主導。我們自第一天起即採取模型不可知（model-agnostic）的方法，依據效能、安全性與成本來選擇模型。此方法讓我們在這項快速演進的技術上保有最大的彈性。

Our third principle is data. AI is only as effective as the data it can understand. We have deliberately invested in getting our data foundation right, clean, well governed, and richly described so that AI can deliver meaningful outcomes at scale. This is enabled by our enterprise data platform, which ensures that our data is discoverable, trusted, and ready for AI consumption across the enterprise.

我們的第三項原則是資料。AI 的有效性取決於其能理解的資料品質。我們刻意投資於把資料基礎打好：乾淨、治理完善且描述豐富，使 AI 能在大規模下交付有意義的成果。這由我們的企業資料平台所支撐，確保資料在全企業範圍內可被發現、可信且可供 AI 使用。

And our fourth and final principle is platform-first thinking. Rather than fragmented tools, we are building a unified enterprise AI platform. This allows for faster deployment, consistent governance, and repeatable scale across the bank. It also enables the deployment of AI agents and continuous monitoring and improvement of models in production, all with enterprise-grade security guardrails built in from the outset.

我們的第四項也是最後一項原則是平台優先思維（platform-first）。我們不是採用零散的工具，而是在打造一個統一的企業級 AI 平台。這使我們能更快部署、維持一致的治理，並在全行實現可重複的規模化。同時也能部署 AI 代理（agents），並對上線運行中的模型進行持續監控與改進，且自一開始即內建企業級安全防護欄。

In closing, as we've committed to, we are delivering growth across product lines that are strategically important to us and where we can drive client primacy. In Canadian Banking, we delivered sequential commercial loan growth this quarter on top of already strong small business growth and our growing commercial pipeline gives us confidence that, that momentum will continue.

最後，如同我們所承諾的，我們正在於對我們具策略重要性、且能推動客戶優先（client primacy）的產品線上實現成長。在加拿大銀行業務方面，本季我們在既有強勁的小型企業成長之上，實現商業貸款的連續季增；而我們持續擴大的商業業務管線，讓我們有信心這股動能將延續。

Although total deposits are contracting because of industry-wide pressure on GICs, we are consistently growing our higher-quality savings and day-to-day deposits even as deposit dollars increasingly flow into retail mutual funds and our wealth business.

儘管因全產業對 GIC（保證投資證）承受壓力而使總存款收縮，我們仍持續成長更高品質的儲蓄與日常存款，即便存款資金愈來愈多流向零售共同基金與我們的財富管理業務。

The connectivity between Canadian Banking and Global Wealth Management continues to strengthen, thanks to growing retail fund sales and two-way referrals between the two units. In International Banking, retail and commercial loans grew 4% year-over-year with non-mortgage loan growth continuing to outpace mortgage growth on the retail side and growth improving on the commercial side as we build deeper client relationships.

加拿大銀行業務與全球財富管理之間的連結持續強化，受惠於零售基金銷售成長，以及兩個單位之間的雙向轉介。在國際銀行業務方面，零售與商業貸款年增 4%；零售端的非房貸貸款成長持續超越房貸成長，而商業端的成長也隨著我們建立更深的客戶關係而改善。

Finally, in Global Banking and Markets, Capital Markets loans are growing even as total loan growth is being impacted by our decision to reduce our exposure in Asia. Overall, despite increased macro volatility, we continue to drive towards delivering on our medium-term financial objectives and building a stronger and more profitable bank for the long term.

最後，在全球銀行與市場（Global Banking and Markets）方面，即便我們因決定降低在亞洲的曝險而影響整體貸款成長，資本市場貸款仍在成長。整體而言，儘管宏觀波動加劇，我們仍持續推進以達成中期財務目標，並為長期打造更強大且更具獲利能力的銀行。

I will now turn it to Raj for a more detailed financial review.

接下來我將交給 Raj，進行更詳細的財務回顧。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. My All Bank and other segment comments will be on an adjusted basis, which includes the usual amortization of acquisition-related intangibles. The business line results will be on a reported basis beginning this quarter.

謝謝你，Scott，大家早安。我對全行（All Bank）與其他部門的評論將以調整後基礎呈現，其中包含一如往常的併購相關無形資產攤銷。自本季起，各業務線的結果將以申報基礎（reported basis）呈現。

Moving to slide 9 for a review of the second quarter results. The bank reported quarterly earnings of $2.7 billion and a diluted EPS of $2.02. My remarks that follow will refer to the last column of this slide that excludes the impact of divestitures. The return on equity was 13.2%, up 270 basis points year-over-year, driven by strong revenue growth of 13%.

接著請看投影片 9，回顧第二季業績。本行本季申報盈餘為 27 億美元，稀釋後每股盈餘（EPS）為 2.02 美元。以下我的說明將參考本投影片最後一欄，即排除資產剝離（divestitures）影響的數字。股東權益報酬率（ROE）為 13.2%，年增 270 個基點，主要由 13% 的強勁營收成長所帶動。

Net interest income grew 10% year-over-year as net interest margin grew 24 basis points from higher business line margins and lower funding costs. The net interest margin expanded 6 basis points quarter-over-quarter, benefiting from some seasonality in International Banking and increased levels of higher spread reverse repos. Non-interest income was up 17% year-over-year, mainly from higher wealth management revenues, investment gains, and income from associated corporations.

淨利息收入年增 10%，因淨利息收益率（NIM）受惠於較高的業務線利差與較低的資金成本而年增 24 個基點。淨利息收益率較上季擴大 6 個基點，受惠於國際銀行業務的部分季節性因素，以及較高利差的逆回購（reverse repos）水位上升。非利息收入年增 17%，主要來自較高的財富管理收入、投資收益，以及聯營公司收入。

Expenses grew 7% year-over-year, mainly due to higher performance-based and personnel costs and technology spend that also grew 9% to $1.4 billion to support strategic growth initiatives. This resulted in a pre-tax pre-provision profit growth of 20% year-over-year.

費用年增 7%，主要由較高的績效型薪酬與人事成本，以及科技支出所帶動；科技支出亦年增 9% 至 14 億美元，以支持策略性成長計畫。因此，稅前提存前獲利年增 20%。

The bank generated positive operating year-to-date leverage of 4.9% and the productivity ratio improved by 290 basis points year-over-year to 52.5%. The bank's effective tax rate decreased to 23.3% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to higher income in lower tax jurisdictions and higher inflationary adjustments.

本行年初至今（YTD）產生正向營運槓桿 4.9%，生產力比率年減 290 個基點至 52.5%。本行有效稅率較上季下降至 23.3%，主要因低稅負司法管轄區的收入增加，以及較高的通膨調整。

Moving to slide 10. The bank's CET1 capital ratio remained strong at 13.3%. We generated capital from strong earnings in the quarter and prudent management of RWA growth. We completed the 2025 share repurchase program and commenced repurchases under the 2026 program this quarter.

接著請看投影片 10。本行普通股權第一類資本（CET1）比率維持強勁，為 13.3%。我們透過本季強勁獲利與審慎管理風險加權資產（RWA）成長來創造資本。我們已完成 2025 年股票回購計畫，並於本季開始依 2026 年計畫進行回購。

Under the two programs, we repurchased 6.4 million shares this quarter, representing 13 basis points of capital usage. The model parameter updates also consumed 13 basis points. Total risk-weighted assets were $474 billion, up $1.6 billion quarter-over-quarter, excluding FX, mainly relating to higher credit risk.

在這兩項計畫下，我們本季回購 640 萬股，約使用 13 個基點的資本。模型參數更新亦消耗 13 個基點。總風險加權資產為 4,740 億美元，若排除匯率影響，較上季增加 16 億美元，主要與較高的信用風險相關。

Turning now to the business line results beginning on slide 11. Canadian Banking earnings were $935 million, up 53% year-over-year from strong pre-tax pre-provision earnings growth of 13% and lower performing provisions for credit losses. Loans grew 3% year-over-year from mortgage growth of 4%, while commercial and small business loans grew 1%. Day-to-day and savings deposits grew 3% year-over-year, in line with our strategy. However, deposits declined 3% year-over-year, mostly in term.

接下來從投影片 11 開始說明各業務線結果。加拿大銀行業務盈餘為 9.35 億美元，年增 53%，主要來自稅前提存前獲利強勁成長 13%，以及信用損失準備中的已發生減損（performing）提存下降。貸款年增 3%，其中房貸成長 4%，而商業與小型企業貸款成長 1%。日常與儲蓄存款年增 3%，符合我們的策略。然而，存款年減 3%，主要來自定期存款。

Turning to the P&L. Net interest income grew 7% year-over-year from loan growth and margin expansion. Net interest margin continued to expand, up 4 basis points sequentially. Non-interest income was up 10% year-over-year from higher mutual fund distribution and credit card revenues.

接著看損益表（P&L）。淨利息收入年增 7%，來自貸款成長與利差擴大。淨利息收益率持續擴大，較上季增加 4 個基點。非利息收入年增 10%，主要來自較高的共同基金代銷收入與信用卡收入。

The PCL ratio was 50 basis points with impaired PCLs declining to 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Expenses were up 3% year-over-year from investments in technology, partly offset by the benefit of efficiency initiatives. Year-to-date operating leverage was 3.9%.

PCL 比率為 50 個基點，減損 PCL 較上季下降至 2 個基點。費用年增 3%，主要來自對科技的投資，部分被效率提升措施帶來的效益所抵銷。年初至今的營運槓桿為 3.9%。

Turning now to Global Wealth Management on slide 12. The earnings of $474 million were up 19% year-over-year as Canadian earnings were up 20% and international was up 12%, mainly in Mexico. Spot AUM and AUA grew 18% and 15% year-over-year from market appreciation and higher net sales.

接著看投影片 12 的全球財富管理。盈餘為 4.74 億美元，年增 19%，其中加拿大年增 20%，國際年增 12%，主要來自墨西哥。即期 AUM 與 AUA 分別年增 18% 與 15%，受惠於市場升值與較高的淨銷售。

Revenues were up 14% year-over-year from higher mutual fund fees, net interest income, and brokerage revenues. Expenses were up 12% year-over-year from higher volume-related expenses. Year-to-date operating leverage was 2.1%.

營收年增 14%，主要來自較高的共同基金費用、淨利息收入及經紀業務收入。費用年增 12%，主要因與業務量相關的費用增加。年初至今的營運槓桿為 2.1%。

Turning to slide 13. Global Banking and Markets earnings were $457 million, up 11% year-over-year. Revenue grew 9% year-over-year as capital markets revenues were up 25%, while business banking was down 7%. Net interest income was 5% year-over-year, primarily due to higher margins.

接著看投影片 13。全球銀行與資本市場（GBM）盈餘為 4.57 億美元，年增 11%。營收年增 9%，其中資本市場營收年增 25%，而商業銀行業務年減 7%。淨利息收入年增 5%，主要由於利差提高。

Non-interest income was up 10% year-over-year due to higher trading-related revenues from equities, commodities, and fixed income, partly offset by lower FX trading and underwriting and advisory fees. Expenses were up 10% year-over-year, mainly due to higher technology and personnel costs.

非利息收入年增 10%，主要因股票、商品與固定收益帶動的交易相關收入增加，部分被較低的外匯交易以及承銷、顧問費用所抵銷。費用年增 10%，主要因科技與人員成本上升。

Moving to slide 14. My comments on International Banking are on a constant dollar basis and exclude the impact of divested operations. The segment delivered earnings of $701 million, up 3% year-over-year. Revenue was up 7% year-over-year with net interest income up 5% and non-interest income up 14% from higher investment in associated corporations and insurance income.

接著看投影片 14。我對國際銀行業務的評論以固定匯率（constant dollar）基礎呈現，並排除已處分業務的影響。該分部盈餘為 7.01 億美元，年增 3%。營收年增 7%，其中淨利息收入年增 5%，非利息收入年增 14%，主要來自對聯營公司的投資收益增加以及保險收入提高。

Net interest margin of 476 basis points expanded by 22 basis points quarter-over-quarter from lower funding costs in Latin America and inflation benefits mainly in Chile. Deposits were up 5% year-over-year as personal deposits grew 3% and nonpersonal grew 7%. The loans were down 2% year-over-year as non-retail loans declined 8%, while retail grew 4%. The operating leverage was 3.2% year-to-date.

淨利息利差為 476 個基點，較上季擴大 22 個基點，主要因拉丁美洲資金成本下降，以及主要在智利的通膨效益。存款年增 5%，其中個人存款年增 3%，非個人存款年增 7%。放款年減 2%，其中非零售放款年減 8%，零售放款年增 4%。年初至今的營運槓桿為 3.2%。

The PCL ratio was 166 basis points, mainly from impaired. The effective tax rate was 17.3%, mainly from higher inflation, refund of prior taxes in Peru, and higher income from associated corporations. The GBM Business and International Banking generated earnings of $237 million, impacted by higher loan loss provisions.

PCL 比率為 166 個基點，主要來自減損。有效稅率為 17.3%，主要受較高通膨、秘魯退還以前年度稅款，以及來自聯營公司的較高收入所影響。GBM 業務與國際銀行業務合計產生 2.37 億美元盈餘，受到較高貸款損失準備影響。

Turning to slide 15. The other segment's net income was $35 million compared to a loss of $41 million in the prior quarter, benefiting from higher mark-to-market gains.

接著看投影片 15。其他分部淨利為 3,500 萬美元，相較前一季虧損 4,100 萬美元，受惠於較高的按市價評價（mark-to-market）收益。

I'll now turn the call over to Shannon to discuss risk.

接下來我把電話會議交給 Shannon 來討論風險。

Thank you, Raj, and good morning, everyone. The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, shaped by geopolitical developments, and elevated energy costs that continue to affect trade flows and the GDP growth outlook. In Canada, near-term growth has moderated amid continued trade headwinds and inflation remains a key focus for policymakers.

謝謝你，Raj，各位早安。總體經濟環境仍不確定，受到地緣政治發展以及高企能源成本影響，並持續影響貿易流向與 GDP 成長前景。在加拿大，短期成長在持續的貿易逆風下有所放緩，而通膨仍是政策制定者關注的重點。

Against this backdrop, All Bank provisions were $1.2 billion or 66 basis points, up 5 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Impaired provisions were $1.1 billion or 61 basis points, up 3 basis points quarter-over-quarter. This increase was driven mainly by a corporate account in International Banking, which represented about 7 basis points of the All Bank impaired PCLs.

在此背景下，全行提列準備為 12 億美元或 66 個基點，較上季增加 5 個基點。減損準備為 11 億美元或 61 個基點，較上季增加 3 個基點。此增幅主要由國際銀行業務的一個企業帳戶所帶動，約占全行減損 PCL 的 7 個基點。

Performing provisions were 5 basis points, up 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter, driven mainly by the impact of forward-looking indicators in Canada. Our allowance for credit losses increased to $7.3 billion or 96 basis points, up 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

履約（performing）準備為 5 個基點，較上季增加 2 個基點，主要由加拿大前瞻性指標的影響所致。我們的信用損失備抵（allowance for credit losses）增加至 73 億美元或 96 個基點，較上季增加 2 個基點。

Turning to slide 18. Gross impaired loans increased 4 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 99 basis points, driven mainly by the one corporate account in International Banking and higher formations in Canadian Commercial. Retail gross impaired loans declined across both Canada and International Banking as lower new formations reflected the impact of enhanced collections efforts.

接著看投影片 18。總減損放款（Gross impaired loans）較上季增加 4 個基點至 99 個基點，主要由國際銀行業務的該企業帳戶以及加拿大商業金融較高的新形成所帶動。零售總減損放款在加拿大與國際銀行業務皆下降，因較低的新形成反映強化催收措施的成效。

In non-retail, GIL formations increased $368 million quarter-over-quarter, driven mainly by one account in International Banking and one account in Canadian Banking. Overall, the non-retail portfolio remains well positioned and underwritten to strong credit standards.

在非零售方面，GIL 新形成較上季增加 3.68 億美元，主要由國際銀行業務的一個帳戶以及加拿大銀行業務的一個帳戶所帶動。整體而言，非零售投資組合仍具良好定位，且承作標準符合嚴謹的信用規範。

Turning to slide 19. In Canadian Banking, provisions were $575 million or 50 basis points. In retail, total PCLs were $435 million, flat quarter-over-quarter as lower impaired provisions across most products were offset by higher performing PCLs. Performing PCLs were up $22 million quarter-over-quarter, driven primarily by unfavorable impact in our forward-looking indicators, partially offset by credit quality improvements.

接著看投影片 19。在加拿大銀行業務，提列準備為 5.75 億美元或 50 個基點。在零售方面，PCL 總額為 4.35 億美元，較上季持平；多數產品的減損準備下降，被較高的履約 PCL 所抵銷。履約 PCL 較上季增加 2,200 萬美元，主要由前瞻性指標的不利影響所致，部分被信用品質改善所抵銷。

In unsecured lending, we are seeing the benefit of targeted collection actions, including expanded capacity, enhanced client segmentation, and increased self-service options through our online channels. These efforts contributed to a 20-basis points quarter-over-quarter improvement in 90-plus day delinquency for unsecured products.

在無擔保放款方面，我們看到精準催收行動帶來的效益，包括擴充產能、強化客戶分群，以及透過線上通路增加自助服務選項。這些努力使無擔保產品的 90 天以上逾期率較上季改善 20 個基點。

That said, we continue to closely monitor the portfolio given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty affecting consumers, including elevated energy costs and inflationary pressure.

儘管如此，鑑於影響消費者的總體經濟不確定性仍在，包括高企能源成本與通膨壓力，我們將持續密切監控該投資組合。

Moving to International Banking. International Banking provisions were $599 million or 166 basis points, up from $536 million in the prior quarter. In non-retail, the increase in PCLs was concentrated mainly in a single corporate account. This reflects primarily company-specific factors rather than broader macroeconomic or trade-related pressures. We continue to actively manage the exposure with close monitoring and ongoing engagement and expect non-retail impaired PCLs to meaningfully moderate from Q2 levels.

接著看國際銀行業務。國際銀行業務提列準備為 5.99 億美元或 166 個基點，高於前一季的 5.36 億美元。在非零售方面，PCL 的增加主要集中於單一企業帳戶。這主要反映公司特定因素，而非更廣泛的總體經濟或貿易相關壓力。我們持續透過密切監控與持續互動積極管理曝險，並預期非零售減損 PCL 將自第二季水準明顯回落。

On the retail side, total PCLs were lower quarter-over-quarter, reflecting lower new formations in the Caribbean and Peru and lower performing provisions in the Chile consumer finance portfolio. Retail impaired PCLs were $381 million, down $24 million quarter-over-quarter, driven by divestitures. In Global Banking and Markets, provisions were $38 million or 8 basis points lower quarter-over-quarter.

在零售方面，PCL 總額較上季下降，反映加勒比海地區與秘魯的新形成較低，以及智利消費金融投資組合的履約準備下降。零售減損 PCL 為 3.81 億美元，較上季減少 2,400 萬美元，主要由處分交易所帶動。在全球銀行與資本市場，提列準備為 3,800 萬美元或 8 個基點，較上季下降。

The macroeconomic environment has evolved meaningfully since the start of the year. Elevated energy costs, persistent trade uncertainty, and higher unemployment continue to pressure both consumers and businesses across our footprint. Against this backdrop, we expect impaired PCLs to settle in the mid-50 basis points range for the remainder of 2026. While this is slightly elevated relative to our initial outlook, we still expect PCLs to moderate from first half levels, though more gradual than previously anticipated.

自年初以來，總體經濟環境已有顯著變化。高企能源成本、持續的貿易不確定性以及較高失業率，持續對我們營運版圖內的消費者與企業造成壓力。在此背景下，我們預期 2026 年剩餘期間的減損 PCL 將落在 50 多個基點的中段區間。雖然相較我們最初的展望略為偏高，但我們仍預期 PCL 將較上半年水準回落，只是回落速度將較先前預期更為緩慢。

Looking at each of our portfolios. In Canadian Retail, Q2 performance benefited from collections efforts. However, prolonged inflationary pressures could further strain already vulnerable client segments.

再看我們各個投資組合。在加拿大零售方面，第二季表現受惠於催收努力。然而，通膨壓力若長期持續，可能會進一步加重原本就較脆弱的客群壓力。

In Canadian Commercial, performance remains resilient and in line with expectations with continued attention on potential second-order impacts from trade developments and sustained elevated oil prices. Across our key international markets, retail impaired performance is expected to remain elevated, in line with our earlier outlook.

在加拿大商業銀行業務方面，表現仍具韌性且符合預期，我們持續關注貿易發展可能帶來的第二輪影響，以及油價持續高企的情況。在我們主要的國際市場中，零售不良表現預期將維持在較高水準，與我們先前的展望一致。

In Mexico, macroeconomic indicators continue to present a mixed outlook given trade uncertainty. In Chile and Peru, credit performance has been stable, supported by commodity fundamentals, although the potential impact of higher energy costs remains an area of focus.

在墨西哥，鑑於貿易不確定性，宏觀經濟指標持續呈現好壞參半的展望。在智利與秘魯，受商品基本面支撐，信貸表現一直穩定，但較高能源成本的潛在影響仍是關注重點。

In non-retail for International Banking, we continue to actively manage the portfolio through ongoing reviews and early warning monitoring. And while the macro uncertainty remains, we expect impaired PCLs to meaningfully moderate from Q2.

在國際銀行業務的非零售方面，我們持續透過定期檢視與預警監測，主動管理投資組合。儘管宏觀不確定性仍在，我們預期不良貸款損失準備金（PCL）將自第二季起明顯趨緩。

In closing, we continue to build allowances, adding $159 million this quarter to bring total reserves to $7.3 billion or 96 basis points and now 24 basis points higher than Q1 2023. Importantly, these allowances reflect a range of forward-looking macroeconomic scenarios, and we are comfortable that both the level of reserves and the quality of our portfolio position us well to navigate the environment.

最後，我們持續建立備抵，本季新增1.59億美元，使總準備金達73億美元（或96個基點），目前較2023年第一季高出24個基點。重要的是，這些備抵反映一系列前瞻性的宏觀經濟情境；我們有信心，無論是準備金水準或投資組合品質，都使我們能妥善因應當前環境。

With that, I will turn it back to Meny for Q&A.

接下來，我把時間交回給Meny進行問答。

Thanks, Shannon. Operator, we're now ready for our first question.

謝謝，Shannon。接線員，我們現在準備好進行第一個提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Doug Young, Desjardins.

Doug Young，Desjardins。

Maybe, Shannon, sticking with yourself. So just the guidance that you gave. So the impaired PCL guidance of mid-50 basis points for the remainder of fiscal '26. So that is -- I guess, your guidance for the full year now is higher than it was before. I just wanted to confirm that. And then the moderation in PCLs in the back half of this year, can you talk a bit about what gives you the confidence in the moderation?

Shannon，或許先延續你剛才的部分。關於你提供的指引。也就是在2026財年剩餘期間，不良PCL指引為50多個基點的中段。所以我想，你目前對全年給出的指引，比之前更高了。我只是想確認一下。另外，今年下半年PCL趨緩，你能否談談是什麼讓你對趨緩有信心？

Thanks for the question. So if I take a look at the macro when we gave guidance back in December, the macro environment has evolved meaningfully since that time. And so considering this, we do expect impaired PCLs to settle in the mid-50 basis points range for the remainder of '26, which I mentioned in my remarks.

謝謝你的提問。如果回頭看我們在12月給出指引時的宏觀情況，自那時以來宏觀環境已有顯著變化。因此，在此考量下，我們確實預期2026財年剩餘期間的不良PCL將落在50多個基點的中段區間，正如我在發言中提到的。

I think it is important, though, that we still expect a gradual trend down from first half levels, although more modest than we originally anticipated. And in terms of what gives me confidence around that and what kind of going into that outlook, let me kind of walk you through a few portfolio components.

不過我認為重要的是，我們仍預期相較上半年水準會逐步下行，只是幅度會比原先預期更溫和。至於是什麼讓我對此有信心、以及這個展望的依據，我來帶你看幾個投資組合的組成面向。

In International Retail, performance continues to be mixed by geography, and we do expect impaired PCLs to remain elevated, and that is consistent with our initial outlook. If I look at Canadian retail, Q2 performance benefited from the collections efforts that we've been speaking about over the past few quarters. And we do expect impaired PCLs to potentially be impacted by prolonged inflationary pressures. So that could impact some of our vulnerable client segments.

在國際零售方面，各地區表現仍然分化；我們確實預期不良PCL將維持在較高水準，這與我們最初的展望一致。若看加拿大零售，第二季表現受惠於我們過去幾季一直提到的催收努力。我們也預期，不良PCL可能會受到通膨壓力延續的影響。因此，這可能會影響到部分較脆弱的客戶族群。

And then when I look at the non-retail portfolio, we do continue to monitor on a heightened basis, the sectors that are more exposed to trade dynamics and oil price volatility. But as I look from this quarter forward, we do expect to see the non-retail impaired PCLs moderate from the Q2 levels.

再來看非零售投資組合，我們仍以更高強度持續監控那些較暴露於貿易動態與油價波動的產業。但就從本季往後來看，我們預期非零售不良PCL將較第二季水準趨緩。

So when I take all of that into consideration, we do expect to trend down from the first half. But as you point out, it will be more gradual than we had originally anticipated, and that's really reflecting the changes in the macro since we gave our guidance back in December.

綜合以上因素，我們確實預期會較上半年呈現下行趨勢。但如你所指出，下降速度會比我們原先預期更為緩慢，而這主要反映自12月給出指引以來宏觀環境的變化。

Okay. And then just maybe a follow-up on the performing loan side, a bit of a build this quarter. Can you maybe quantify or talk about or just put in perspective how confident you are in your performing loan allowances relative to your forward-looking indicators and your expectations for impaired? Just trying to get a sense. It's always difficult to kind of look at it across the group, but maybe there's some perspective you can give.

了解。另外，關於正常（performing）貸款那邊，本季有一些增加。你能否量化、或談談、或只是提供一些脈絡：相對於你的前瞻性指標以及對不良的預期，你對正常貸款備抵的信心程度如何？我只是想掌握一下。跨整個集團來看總是很難判讀，但也許你可以提供一些觀點。

Yes. So maybe it would be helpful to take a step back and just kind of grounding how we factor scenarios into our performing allowance. We obviously take into consideration a range of scenarios, which includes the environment that we've been operating in and as we look forward and talk about some of the pressures that I spoke to in my remarks.

可以。或許先退一步，先說明我們如何把情境納入正常貸款備抵的計提。我們當然會考量一系列情境，包括我們目前所處的營運環境，以及往前看、我在發言中提到的一些壓力因素。

And so as we think about the performing build this quarter, which was 5 basis points, about $50 million of that was related to our forward-looking indicators, which we do think appropriately captures what we see as we look forward.

因此，談到本季正常貸款備抵的增加（為5個基點），其中約5,000萬美元與我們的前瞻性指標相關；我們認為這能適切反映我們對未來的觀察。

And so when I look at the scenarios and what we leverage to generate the performing build, we're quite comfortable with our reserves. As you know, we're going to reassess this every quarter as the environment evolves but feeling good where it is right now.

所以，當我看我們用來產生本季正常貸款備抵增加的各項情境與假設時，我們對準備金水準相當放心。如你所知，我們會隨著環境演變每季重新評估，但就目前而言，我們對現況感到良好。

Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial.

Gabriel Dechaine，National Bank Financial。

Just a quick numbers one to start the other, other income. I heard mark-to-market gains in the explanation for the corporate segment. Can you tell me what was in that other, other income line item that was pretty high this quarter, please?

先問一個快速的數字問題，關於「其他、其他收入」。我在公司部門的說明中聽到按市價計量（mark-to-market）收益。請問本季那個相當高的「其他、其他收入」科目裡，具體包含了什麼？

Sure, Gabe. It's Raj. Absolutely, you're right. There are two items that have gone into that line this quarter. One, I talked about the mark-to-market gains, which is on the private equity book that we have in treasury. That contributed somewhere between $35 million to $40 million.

當然可以，Gabe。我是Raj。沒錯，你說得對。本季有兩個項目進入了那一行。第一個是我提到的按市價計量收益，來自我們在財資部門持有的私募股權投資組合。這部分貢獻約3,500萬到4,000萬美元。

There is another component, which is Davivienda that closed a deal in their books, and we had to do an equity pickup of the mark-to-market increases they have in their assets this quarter, and that was in the mid-40s. It was about $46 million that has gone into that line. That's why you're seeing that line elevated.

另一個組成是Davivienda在其帳上完成了一筆交易；我們需要就其本季資產按市價計量上升的部分，認列權益法損益（equity pickup），金額約在4,000多萬美元的中段。約有4,600萬美元計入了那一行。因此你會看到該行項目偏高。

Okay. So $35 million to $40 million, that's pre-tax or?

了解。所以那3,500萬到4,000萬美元是稅前的，對嗎？

Correct. Yes. Because the Davivienda that we pick it up after tax, there's no tax effect because of the way we account for investment and associated cost.

正確。是的。因為Davivienda那部分我們是稅後認列；由於我們對投資及相關成本的會計處理方式，沒有稅務影響。

Okay. Great. Just to keep going with this credit discussion, the mid-50s H2. I guess the -- I'm trying to decipher where some of the changes are taking place. I can draw my own conclusions based on what I see in the environment, but it looks like Canadian retail because of inflation and the economy that's not rebounding as fast as expected, that's where you're expecting more upward pressure than you did previously.

了解。很好。延續這個信貸討論，下半年在50多個基點的中段。我想——我試著解讀一些變化是發生在哪裡。我可以根據我對環境的觀察自行推論，但看起來加拿大零售這邊，因為通膨以及經濟復甦不如預期快速，你們預期的上行壓力比先前更大。

In international retail, it doesn't sound like you're -- it's changed from what you anticipated at the start of the year, but these -- in Peru and Chile, especially the energy prices that are putting a lot of pressure, keep using that word on their economies, that's got to be a new twist to this saga.

在國際零售方面，聽起來你們的看法並沒有相較年初預期有太大改變；但在秘魯與智利，尤其是能源價格對其經濟造成很大壓力——我一直用「壓力」這個詞——這肯定是這段發展中的一個新變數。

And then I guess, it's too early to start thinking about 2027, not really, but technically, I guess. But none of this stuff seems to be -- and this isn't a Scotia-specific issue, but none of the stuff seems to be like is going to be all clear anytime soon. Are we thinking already that maybe 2027 will have this higher for longer impaired PCL ratio?

然後我想，現在開始思考 2027 年可能還太早——其實也不算，但從技術上來說，我想是。但這些事情看起來——而且這也不是豐業銀行特有的問題——這些事情似乎不會在短期內就變得很明朗。我們是否已經在想，也許 2027 年會出現這種「高利率維持更久」下的減值 PCL 比率？

Yes. Okay, maybe I'll stick to the 2026 guidance and what's driving our outlook as we go into the latter half of the year. And I mentioned it a bit previously in my remarks. So in terms of what's changed from when we gave our guidance in December, it really is, as I think about the environment that we're operating in. And so we do expect to see improvement in the latter half of the year, which is consistent with our guidance we provided.

是的。好，那我可能會先聚焦在 2026 年的指引，以及我們在進入下半年時，哪些因素在驅動我們的展望。我先前在發言中也稍微提到過。所以就我們在 12 月給出指引以來有哪些變化而言，主要是我在思考我們所處的營運環境。因此，我們確實預期在下半年會看到改善，這與我們提供的指引一致。

It's just the magnitude of that is maybe different than we had originally expected and again, reflecting the macro that we're in. And so we expect it to be more gradual than we did at the time. And to your point, Canadian retail is an area that I would point to. Again, we're really encouraged by the Q2 performance. And that is a reflection of the collections efforts that have been underway for a period of time.

只是改善的幅度可能與我們原先預期不同，再次反映我們所處的總體環境。因此，我們預期改善會比當時想的更為漸進。而就你提到的，加拿大零售是我會特別指出的一個領域。同樣地，我們對第二季的表現感到非常鼓舞。這反映了我們一段時間以來持續推動的催收工作成效。

We've seen that impact this quarter. But we are cognizant of the environment. And if you think about inflationary pressures and what that can mean to affordability, we have factored that into our outlook as we look out to the rest of the year.

我們在本季已經看到這個影響。但我們也留意到整體環境。如果你想到通膨壓力以及它對負擔能力可能造成的影響，我們在展望今年剩餘時間時，已將其納入考量。

And Gabe, it's Scott. I would just add a couple of things. One, I mean, there's definitely some stresses in the Canadian portfolio. There's no doubt. I mean I was really pleased that we saw improved impaired performance in that book.

Gabe，我是 Scott。我再補充幾點。第一，加拿大投資組合確實存在一些壓力。這點毫無疑問。不過我很高興我們看到那個組合的減值表現有所改善。

But as you look out to '27, I'm actually relatively optimistic about the outlook for Canada. Despite the war and the kind of the tragic aspect of it, we're an oil exporting nation. You've got a new business-friendly government that is trying to get things done. And so as we look further out, I actually -- I think we're going to see some good things in the Canadian environment.

但如果看向 2027 年，我其實對加拿大的前景相對樂觀。儘管戰爭以及其悲劇性層面令人遺憾，但我們是石油出口國。你也看到一個對商業友善的新政府正試圖把事情推動起來。因此，往更遠看，我其實——我認為加拿大的環境會出現一些好的發展。

Yes, I get it. I agree, but there's a lag between when -- the bad stuff is still having an impact and when the good stuff kicks in. And -- I don't know it's a moving target, obviously. So I'll leave it there.

是的，我明白。我同意，但從——壞的因素仍在產生影響，到好的因素開始發揮作用之間，是有時間落差的。而且——我不知道，顯然這是個不斷變動的目標。所以我就先說到這裡。

Mario Mendonca, TD Securities.

Mario Mendonca，TD 證券。

I think, Raj, you covered the corporate gains there. In the past, you've given us some outlook on what we'd expect from that segment going forward. Presumably, you'd expect that to return to maybe a modest loss next quarter. Is that right?

我想，Raj，你已經談到企業端的收益了。過去你也曾給我們一些對該業務板塊未來的展望。推測你會預期下季回到可能是小幅虧損。是這樣嗎？

That's correct, Mario.

沒錯，Mario。

And then on international, the margin there in international remains well above the outlook you've offered in the past of 4.40% to 4.50%. Can you talk about what drove such a meaningful increase in the quarter and what your outlook is?

接著談國際業務，國際業務的利差仍明顯高於你過去提供的 4.40% 到 4.50% 的展望區間。你能談談本季是什麼驅動了如此顯著的上升，以及你的展望嗎？

Absolutely, Mario. I think you're right. 4.76% is a high watermark for the international margin this quarter. As you know, IB NIM has got multiple countries, right? It's got all the Latin American countries, but it also has a big Caribbean operation. So a lot of the benefits or the increase in the NIM that we saw is lower funding costs in our Latin American franchises. We have seen rate cuts in Mexico. We've seen it in Chile earlier, and we've seen it in Peru as well. So that's going to continue, and that's in line with what we expected even at the beginning of the year.

當然可以，Mario。我想你說得對，本季國際業務利差 4.76% 是一個高點。如你所知，國際銀行（IB）的淨利息收益率（NIM）涵蓋多個國家，對吧？包含所有拉丁美洲國家，同時也有一個規模很大的加勒比海業務。因此，我們看到的 NIM 受益或上升，很大一部分來自拉丁美洲特許經營的資金成本下降。我們已在墨西哥看到降息。先前在智利也看到了，在秘魯也一樣。所以這會持續下去，且與我們年初的預期一致。

What we did not expect, and it's a nice tailwind to have is there's been no US rate cuts, so the Caribbean NIM has held up very well for us. And then there is the asset balance mix that is happening. No less mortgages and higher non-mortgages going over there.

我們沒有預期到、但很高興能有的順風是：美國沒有降息，因此加勒比海的 NIM 對我們而言維持得非常好。另外還有資產餘額結構的變化正在發生。那邊按揭占比下降、非按揭占比提高。

If I look forward, this quarter, there was some nuance. There's some seasonality to some Q2 benefits that we get in International Banking NIM. I call it somewhere between 7 basis points to 10 basis points, Mario. So I would say next quarter should be somewhere between 4.65% to 4.74% frankly, for the remainder of the year.

如果我往前看，本季有一些細節因素。國際銀行 NIM 在第二季有一些我們會取得的季節性效益。我把它估在大約 7 到 10 個基點之間，Mario。所以我會說，下季坦白講應該會落在 4.65% 到 4.74% 之間，並延續到今年剩餘時間。

And that is a nice tailwind to have to our 4.40% to 4.50% normal expectations we have for that NIM. And that's primarily driven because we don't see rate cuts happening at any scale in the United States that should help with our Canadian -- sorry, the Caribbean deposit risk franchise. So it's a good tailwind. The 4.65% to 4.70% is likely the number I would look at for Q3 and for Q4 as well.

相較於我們對該 NIM 的常態預期 4.40% 到 4.50%，這是一個不錯的順風。主要原因是我們不認為美國會出現具規模的降息，這將有助於我們的加拿大——抱歉，是加勒比海存款特許經營的存款風險。所以這是個好的順風。4.65% 到 4.70% 可能是我對第三季以及第四季會看的數字。

And maybe, Francisco, you can just highlight for Mario some of the business mix changes that are ongoing there because I think it was a great quarter for international to highlight some of the moving pieces.

也許 Francisco，你可以替 Mario 強調一下那邊正在進行的一些業務結構變化，因為我認為本季國際業務表現很好，值得把一些變動因素點出來。

Sure, Scott. Thank you. Mario, thanks for the question. We continue to be steady state on the strategy to try to change the balance sheet mix across all countries. This particular quarter, you begin to show on the year-on-year progression, for example, deposits moving quite strongly around the 6% mark.

好的，Scott。謝謝。Mario，謝謝你的問題。我們持續以既定策略，嘗試在所有國家調整資產負債表的結構。本季你開始在年對年的進展中看到，例如存款相當強勁地成長，大約在 6% 左右。

But when you begin to see also the loan growth in retail around 4.5%, non-mortgage predominantly growing at twice the pace of mortgage, increasing client profitability. When you see GBM deposits year-on-year growing at 8%, that's all contributing to the sustainability that Raj was mentioning of the NIM expansion.

同時你也會看到零售貸款成長約 4.5%，其中非按揭的成長速度主要是按揭的兩倍，提升了客戶獲利能力。當你看到 GBM 存款年對年成長 8%，這些都在支撐 Raj 所提到的 NIM 擴張的可持續性。

So the overall underlying quality of our balance sheets in every market are improving sustainably on the back of the client strategy and the, I would say, very deliberate effort on quality deposits. So we have been optimizing expensive deposits out and replacing them by operational deposits sustainably across all business lines.

因此，我們在每個市場的資產負債表整體底層品質，都在客戶策略的帶動下持續、可持續地改善；同時我會說，這也來自於我們對高品質存款非常審慎且刻意的努力。所以我們一直在把高成本存款優化退出，並在所有業務線上，以營運性存款可持續地加以替代。

And Francisco, while you're there, do you have a sense for when the non-retail loan growth will emerge in your segment?

Francisco，既然你在這裡，你是否能判斷你們板塊的非零售貸款成長何時會浮現？

It's consistently growing. And remember, this year was a pivot to growth, right? And we wanted to ensure that the new value propositions resulting from the segmentation exercise generated high-quality vintages that allow us to get to primacy faster and sustainably. So we are in that journey.

它一直在持續成長。而且記得，今年是轉向成長的一年，對吧？我們希望確保分群作業所產生的新價值主張，能帶來高品質的新放款批次（vintages），讓我們能更快且可持續地達到主辦行地位（primacy）。所以我們正在這段旅程中。

What is very encouraging to see is that our primary market being Mexico is beginning to show that progression quite strongly in this quarter and has been the work over a year of the new team we have in place in driving that strategy.

令人非常振奮的是，我們的主要市場墨西哥在本季開始相當明顯地展現這種進展，而這是我們新團隊在過去一年多推動該策略的成果。

We're seeing similar progress in Peru and in Chile as well as in the Caribbean. So you should expect that by 2027, this will consolidate, but we are being very deliberate in the quality of the portfolio that we're building towards sustainability of performance.

我們在秘魯、智利以及加勒比地區也看到類似的進展。因此，你應該預期到2027年這將會整合成形，但我們在打造投資組合的品質上非常審慎，以確保績效的永續性。

Paul Holden, CIBC.

Paul Holden，CIBC。

I want to ask you about the net interest margin outlook for Canada. Obviously, a positive result, I think, in Q2. A number of moving parts there, which is why I asked the question, right? Like the residential mortgage renewals, which should be a nice tailwind. I think we're hearing about increasing deposit competition, so maybe a little bit of a headwind there. Anyways, maybe you can give us an outlook and sort of wrap all of those components together would be helpful.

我想請教你們對加拿大淨利差（NIM）展望的看法。顯然，我認為第二季（Q2）是正面的結果。其中有很多變動因素，這也是我提問的原因，對吧？例如住宅房貸續約，這應該會帶來不錯的順風。我想我們也聽到存款競爭加劇，所以那邊可能會有些逆風。總之，也許你們可以給我們一個展望，並把這些因素整合說明，會很有幫助。

Sure. Paul, I'll start, but I want Aris to talk about his business as well and how the changes are impacting. I'll keep it short. I think the net interest margin expansion we saw this quarter will continue, maybe not to the same magnitude. But like in the beginning of the year, I had mentioned 2 basis points a quarter improvement driven by better deposits, the mix.

當然。Paul，我先開始回答，但我也希望Aris談談他的業務，以及這些變化帶來的影響。我簡短說明。我認為我們本季看到的淨利差擴張會延續，只是幅度可能不會一樣大。不過就像年初我提到的，每季改善2個基點，主要由更好的存款、存款結構（mix）所帶動。

Better loan growth because even mortgages, I think, are more profitable than what we've had, and we've seen strong growth as well as commercial, like Scott alluded to in his opening remarks. So those are all going to contribute, I would say, for the remainder of the year for margin expansion in the Canadian bank. And maybe Aris, you can talk about the business mix shifts that you're seeing in there.

再加上更好的放款成長，因為即使是房貸，我認為也比我們過去的更有利可圖；而且我們也看到強勁成長，商業放款亦然，正如Scott在開場致詞中提到的。所以我會說，這些因素在今年剩餘期間都將促成加拿大銀行的利差擴張。另外，Aris，你也可以談談你看到的業務結構轉變。

Sure. So I think in line with what you heard, the numbers this quarter really affirm the direction and the strategy we embarked on a few years back, and you see it in the numbers. And you have to go back, I think, to 2022 to see growth rates at this level across revenues, PTPP and the like.

好的。我想如同你所聽到的，本季的數字確實印證了我們幾年前啟動的方向與策略，你可以從數字中看得出來。我認為你得回到2022年，才會看到在營收、PTPP等項目上有這種水準的成長率。

And I think the drivers, as I mentioned in the last call, there's really four drivers. It's the business mix shift that you've heard about, both on the deposit side and more and more now on lending as we increase the proportion of non-mortgage lending.

我認為驅動因素，如我在上次電話會議提到的，主要有四個。第一是你們聽到的業務組合轉變，包含存款端，以及現在在放款端也越來越明顯，因為我們提高了非房貸放款的比重。

The second is the RAM, the improvement in the risk-adjusted margins from the renewals and repricing of our mortgage book, which is now going to accelerate as the renewals start to increase. And then, of course, you saw in the quarter the increase in fee income across cards, mutual funds, and insurance. So all these put together are helping lift that revenue and PTPP line.

第二是RAM，也就是我們房貸組合在續約與重新定價後，風險調整後利差（risk-adjusted margins）的改善；而且隨著續約量開始增加，這項改善將會加速。再來，當然你也在本季看到，卡片、共同基金與保險的手續費收入都有所增加。因此，這些因素加總起來，正在推升營收與PTPP。

In terms of the margin question you asked about, I think you'll see it primarily now coming on the asset side as the commercial loan book and business banking book and personal lending starts to increase, that will help the overall NIM. You saw the sequential growth in commercial lending on the quarter.

就你問到的利差問題而言，我認為接下來主要會從資產端反映出來：隨著商業放款組合、企業銀行組合以及個人放款開始增加，將有助於整體NIM。你也看到本季商業放款的季比成長。

And again, that commercial lending growth is broad-based. It's across real estate, mid-market, and Ag. And that pipeline that has been built up since a year ago is starting to mature. And as it matures, it's going to actually lift the yield on our lending book as it grows. So we'll see continued increases in the NIM in the quarter, but again, more now weighted to the asset side as we go forward. So all in all, positive outlook from that standpoint.

而且，這個商業放款成長是廣泛性的。涵蓋不動產、中型市場以及農業（Ag）。自一年前建立起來的那條管線（pipeline）正開始成熟。隨著它成熟，放款組合在成長的同時，實際上也會推升我們放款組合的收益率。因此，我們會看到NIM在接下來的季度持續上升，但如我所說，往後會更偏向由資產端帶動。總體而言，從這個角度看是正向的展望。

Okay. That's good. And maybe, Aris, a follow-up question for you. Maybe you can drill down a little bit more into the NIR growth because it is quite strong year-over-year. And I think you touched on some of the drivers there, the credit card fees, et cetera, but maybe you can spend just a couple more minutes so we can understand fully, yes.

好的。這很好。另外，Aris，我有個追問。也許你可以更深入談談NIR的成長，因為年比來看相當強勁。我想你提到了一些驅動因素，例如信用卡手續費等等，但也許你可以再多花一兩分鐘，讓我們能完全理解，是的。

Sure. So the NIR growth for the quarter was close to 10%. I think there's three components. First is on the card book. Even though the balances have not grown, what you're seeing in the card book is a real shift in the quality of the card book, 45% of new card acquisition now is in the premium card segment.

當然。本季NIR成長接近10%。我認為有三個組成部分。第一是卡片組合。即使餘額沒有成長，你在卡片組合中看到的是卡片組合品質的明顯轉變：目前新發卡中有45%來自高端卡（premium card）客群。

That obviously has a huge impact on purchase volumes, transactions, and balance growth. And we're shifting the portfolio more to that premium client group, and then you obviously see the fee increase from there is substantial. I think the other big part in the quarter, I think we had record mutual fund sales in the branches. I think fees were up 21% year-on-year. That's unprecedented.

這顯然對消費金額（purchase volumes）、交易量以及餘額成長有很大的影響。我們正把投資組合更多轉向這個高端客群，因此你也會看到由此帶來的手續費增加相當可觀。我認為本季另一個重要部分是，我們在分行的共同基金銷售創下紀錄。我想手續費年增21%。這是前所未見的。

And the third aspect, of course, is insurance as we build creditor and non-creditor insurance, that's also providing a lift on the NIR. So generally, the things that we talked about before in terms of trying to drive card, mutual fund, and insurance growth is starting to really materialize. You see it in the quarter.

第三個面向，當然就是保險；隨著我們發展債權人保險（creditor）與非債權人保險（non-creditor），也在推升NIR。整體而言，我們之前談到要推動卡片、共同基金與保險成長的那些措施，現在開始真正落地並顯現成果。你在本季就看得到。

And again, the other part, and I'm going to pass to Jacqui, is just the sheer amount of referrals that we're doing now, where we're trying to get the right client, in front of the right adviser, and moving these clients over to wealth is also having a substantial impact on the business. So maybe Jacqui could give a few highlights on that piece.

另外還有一部分，我會交給Jacqui補充，就是我們現在轉介（referrals）的量非常大；我們努力把合適的客戶帶到合適的顧問面前，並把這些客戶導向財富管理（wealth），這也對業務帶來相當大的影響。所以也許Jacqui可以就這部分分享幾個重點。

Yes. I think what really stands out to me in the quarter, Aris, is that we saw really strong AUM growth driven by net new client flows. Like markets were actually pretty choppy during the quarter. They were up for the full quarter, a bit down in March. And in that kind of environment, we might typically see clients moving to the sideline.

好的。Aris，本季最讓我印象深刻的是，我們看到由客戶淨新增資金流入（net new client flows）帶動的AUM強勁成長。其實本季市場波動相當大。整季來看是上漲的，但3月有些下跌。在那樣的環境下，我們通常會看到客戶先觀望、退到場邊。

But what I found really encouraging is we saw positive client flows throughout the quarter despite that backdrop. From our perspective, from a mix, what we're really focused on is retail growth and wealth advisory growth.

但令我非常振奮的是，儘管有那樣的背景，本季我們仍在整個季度都看到正向的客戶資金流入。就我們的角度、從組合（mix）來看，我們真正聚焦的是零售成長與財富顧問業務（wealth advisory）成長。

And on the retail side, as Aris said, we had a really good quarter. We were number three this quarter for the third quarter in a row compared to our bank peers in long-term mutual fund sales. That's up from number five a year ago, number six at Investor Day. And net flows in the first half of the year and Aris' business alone exceeded our full year flows for 2025. So I think that is quite remarkable again, considering the market backdrop that I mentioned.

在零售端，如Aris所說，我們本季表現非常好。就長期共同基金銷售而言，與同業銀行相比，我們已連續第三個季度排名第三。這比一年前的第五名、以及投資人日（Investor Day）時的第六名都有所提升。而且在上半年，僅Aris的業務所帶來的淨流入就已超過我們2025年全年的流入量。因此，我認為這相當了不起，尤其考量到我剛才提到的市場背景。

Wealth Advisory as well had a really good quarter in both Canada and International. We saw over $3 billion in net new flows for the quarter. Fee-based assets are at an all-time high in those businesses. So overall, we're seeing great momentum both in terms of flows and mix. And I think that positions us really well to continue to deliver consistent higher quality earnings growth going forward.

財富顧問業務本季在加拿大與國際市場也都有非常好的表現。本季我們看到超過30億美元的淨新增資金流入。這些業務的收費型資產（fee-based assets）創下歷史新高。因此整體來看，不論是資金流入或組合，我們都看到很好的動能。我認為這讓我們在未來能持續交出更一致、品質更高的獲利成長，處於非常有利的位置。

Matthew Lee, Canaccord Genuity.

Matthew Lee，Canaccord Genuity。

I'll keep it tight. You've spoken about strong commercial momentum and the expectation for that growth to continue accelerating. Could you maybe unpack what's driving that outlook, whether it's broader demand recovery, sector-specific opportunities or maybe just that increasing deeper client activity?

我會簡短說明。你們談到強勁的商業動能，並預期該成長將持續加速。你能否進一步拆解一下這個展望背後的驅動因素，是更廣泛的需求復甦、特定產業的機會，或只是客戶更深度的往來活動增加？

Thanks for the question. So as I mentioned earlier, the commercial growth we expect in the subsequent quarters to match the market growth rates you'll see, and it's on the back of work we started probably 1.5 years ago as we started to rebuild the sales force, particularly in mid-market, starting to add what we call boots on the ground to be able to compete more effectively in high-growth markets in BC, in Quebec.

謝謝你的提問。如我先前提到的，我們預期後續季度的商業成長將與你們看到的市場成長率一致，而這是建立在我們大約在1.5年前開始的工作基礎上：我們開始重建銷售團隊，特別是在中型市場（mid-market），並開始增加我們所稱的「前線人員（boots on the ground）」，以便在卑詩省（BC）、魁北克等高成長市場更有效地競爭。

And those RMs now are starting to generate business after a certain period of training. The pipeline has grown substantially, as I mentioned, on loan pipeline and the deposit pipeline. And all you're seeing now is these pipelines materializing.

而這些客戶關係經理（RM）在經過一段培訓期後，現在開始帶來業務。如我所提到的，放款管線與存款管線都大幅成長。你們現在看到的，就是這些管線正在逐步轉化為實際業務。

The paydowns we saw in real estate have stabilized now. So that is also helping the overall balance growth. So taken all together in combination, we're very confident actually that it's just more business, more new client acquisition, and more primacy that's driving this growth that we're going to see, and it's going to continue in the quarters to come.

我們在不動產方面看到的提前償還（paydowns）如今也已趨於穩定。因此這也有助於整體資產負債表的成長。綜合以上因素，我們其實非常有信心：推動我們將看到的成長的，就是更多業務、更多新客戶取得，以及更高的主辦行地位（primacy）；而且這將在未來幾個季度持續。

Sohrab Movahedi, BMO Capital Markets.

Sohrab Movahedi，BMO資本市場。

Shannon, how many other similar large loans do you have in the non-retail international banking segment? Where does this kind of rank in the order of magnitude from a concentration risk in the portfolio, please?

Shannon，在非零售國際銀行業務部門，你們還有多少筆類似的大型貸款？就投資組合的集中度風險而言，這筆大概排在什麼量級的位置？謝謝。

Maybe I'll start by just giving a bit of context of this particular file and then maybe just talk about the overall non-retail portfolio and why we're comfortable. So in terms of this specific file, it was essentially driven by company-specific factors rather than broader macroeconomic or trade-related pressures. This is a long-standing client for us, investment-grade rating. It's in Brazil. And so this is a domestically important file within that economy.

我先就這個個案提供一些背景，然後再談談整體非零售投資組合，以及我們為何感到安心。就這個特定個案而言，主要是由公司自身因素所驅動，而非更廣泛的總體經濟或貿易相關壓力。這是我們長期往來的客戶，具投資級評等。位於巴西。因此，這在該經濟體內屬於具國內重要性的個案。

And that's really what led to the downgrade. So I think that's just an important context because it's not really related to anything that we're seeing systemically in the book. But if I take a step back and I look at this impairment, I do see it as episodic, and I know we had a few in Q1 as well, but not reflecting deterioration in the underlying portfolio.

而這也正是導致降級的原因。我認為這個背景很重要，因為它並不真正與我們在整體帳簿中系統性看到的任何情況相關。但如果我退一步看這次減損，我確實把它視為偶發事件（episodic）；我知道我們在第一季也有幾筆，但這並不反映底層投資組合的惡化。

And there's a few things that I look at that give me comfort around that. First, when I look at our non-retail watch list, that remains below 2% out of our total outstandings. And so that's obviously an indicator of where we have stress in the book. The second thing that I look at is our risk management framework and how we're managing our portfolio. So we have disciplined credit reviews. We have targeted deep dives on higher risk names and sectors. So as you can appreciate, we're very closely monitoring the portfolio.

有幾點讓我對此感到安心。第一，當我看我們的非零售觀察名單（watch list），其占我們總未償餘額的比例仍低於2%。這顯然是衡量帳簿壓力所在的指標。第二，我會看我們的風險管理架構，以及我們如何管理投資組合。我們有嚴謹的授信審查。我們也會針對較高風險的客戶名稱與產業做有針對性的深入檢視（deep dives）。因此如你所理解的，我們正非常密切地監控投資組合。

Importantly, we are talking to our clients each and every day. And so that's giving us real-time visibility into performance and what's happening on the ground. And then our book is overall like very well diversified across industry and geography and within our risk appetite.

重要的是，我們每天都在與客戶溝通。因此我們能即時掌握其表現與第一線的實際情況。此外，我們的帳簿整體在產業與地理分布上都非常多元分散，且符合我們的風險偏好。

So when I put that together, I'm not seeing systemic stress across the portfolio. And then maybe just one last comment just on the file in Brazil. Just to give you context, since we've been in Brazil, prior to this quarter, our impaired PCLs have been around $65 million, just to put in context in terms of how that portfolio, in particular, has performed over an extended period of time.

綜合來看，我沒有看到投資組合出現系統性壓力。最後再補充一點關於巴西這個個案。提供一些背景：自我們進入巴西以來，在本季之前，我們的已減損PCL（信貸損失準備）約為6,500萬美元；這是為了讓大家了解該投資組合，特別是在較長期間內的表現。

I mean I appreciate that. But one name, you said, I think, cost about 7 basis points of whole bank impaired PCLs. I'm just trying to get a sense of how many other similar sized names you would have in Brazil.

我理解。但你說單一名稱，我想，大約造成全行已減損PCL增加約7個基點。我只是想了解，在巴西你們還有多少其他規模相近的名稱。

Maybe I'll give a bit more details on the Brazil portfolio. And I think -- just when I think about exposures, and I'll go back to this was an investment-grade account. So when you think about where we typically have higher exposures, it would be in those more highly graded companies.

我可以再多提供一些巴西投資組合的細節。我想——當我思考曝險時，我會回到一點：這是一個投資級帳戶。因此當你思考我們通常在哪些地方會有較高曝險時，往往是在那些評等較高的公司。

On this particular file as well, I think it's also important just to comment that we were in a large kind of banking group on this particular exposure, and we're taking, I'd say, a reasonable hold. So our exposure was less than 5% of the total amount outstanding.

就這個個案而言，我也認為很重要的一點是：在這筆曝險上，我們是與一個大型銀行團共同參與，而我們承作的自留額（hold）我會說是合理的。因此，我們的曝險低於總未償金額的5%。

When I look at the Brazil portfolio, it is a very selective and deliberate corporate franchise for us. And when I look at what's in that portfolio, these are high-quality borrowers across strategic international corporates and leading players in the Brazilian economy.

當我看巴西投資組合時，對我們而言這是一個非常精選且有意識經營的企業金融特許業務（corporate franchise）。而當我看該投資組合的內容，這些都是高品質借款人，涵蓋具策略性的國際企業客戶，以及巴西經濟中的領先企業。

We have done a deep dive on the portfolio. You can probably appreciate that, and it really has reinforced our confidence in the quality of the book and absence of similar stress within that particular portfolio. So again, we have exposures that are very much driven by the risk, and we're quite comfortable with where those sit. But Brazil as a book, we're quite comfortable with.

我們已對該投資組合做了深入檢視。你應該可以理解，而這也確實強化了我們對帳簿品質的信心，以及在該投資組合內不存在類似壓力的判斷。因此再說一次，我們的曝險非常以風險為導向，我們對其所在水位相當放心。而就巴西這本帳而言，我們是相當安心的。

So a plus or minus 7 basis points to 10 basis points impaired kind of surprise is within your tolerance?

所以，已減損方面大約正負7到10個基點的意外（surprise），是在你們可容忍的範圍內？

I think when you look at a corporate portfolio, you do from time to time, see what I would call, a fallen angel. And I would put that in this category. And we do not expect to see those frequently. And I would say we haven't seen those frequently. And again, back to this particular portfolio in the last, I guess, more than 15 years, we've had one.

我認為當你看企業投資組合時，確實會不時看到我所稱的「墮落天使（fallen angel）」。我會把這筆歸在這一類。我們不預期會頻繁看到這種情況。而我也會說，我們確實不常見到。再回到這個特定投資組合，在過去我想超過15年裡，我們只遇到過一次。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行。

I guess maybe, Scott, just wanted to double-click on like your optimism on the Canadian economy next year. From what we understand, the government actions probably kick in sometime late next year in terms of having a real impact and then you could have a multiyear investment cycle if all of that plays itself out. In the near term, you have a challenged consumer, CUSMA uncertainty.

我想，Scott，我想再深入追問一下你對明年加拿大經濟的樂觀。據我們理解，政府措施可能要到明年較晚時才會開始產生實質影響，若一切順利發展，之後可能會有一個為期多年的投資循環。但短期內，消費者面臨壓力，且有CUSMA不確定性。

Just round that out for us as we think about the macro-outlook for this group where -- and for Scotia, as you think about the next 6- to 12 months, where is the optimism coming from? Is it just the tone at the top has already led to businesses making investment hiring decisions? Like what are the markers that you're looking for that give you that optimism outside of the (multiple speakers)

請你把這些因素補完整，讓我們在思考這個團體的總體展望時——以及就豐業銀行（Scotia）而言，在接下來6到12個月，你的樂觀是從何而來？是否只是高層的語氣（tone at the top）已經促使企業做出投資與招聘決策？你在觀察哪些指標，讓你在上述之外仍保持樂觀？(多位發言者)

Yes. Sure. Thanks, Ebrahim. So I guess a couple of things. One is we're an oil exporting nation. So right now, -- and you saw this in the budget, when you have oil at this type of prices, that is very beneficial for the overall Canadian economy. And that allows significant fiscal stimulus by the Canadian government to support some of the provinces that will be impacted either by CUSMA or affordability issues.

是的。當然。謝謝你，Ebrahim。我想有幾點。第一，我們是石油出口國。所以目前——你也在預算案中看到，當油價處於這樣的水準時，對整體加拿大經濟非常有利。這也使加拿大政府能提供顯著的財政刺激，以支援那些可能因CUSMA或可負擔性問題而受影響的省份。

And you saw that in the most recent budget. You've actually seen that in the HST rebate that has gone about. And if you talk to people on the ground with this HST rebate, it's actually having an impact on real estate in Ontario in particular. So I guess that's one point.

而你在最新的預算中也看到了這一點。你其實也在已經推出的 HST 退稅中看到了這一點。而如果你和第一線的人談這項 HST 退稅，它實際上正在對安大略省尤其是房地產產生影響。所以我想這是一點。

I think the second point is you have seen a significant change in tone from international investors to Canada. And they would not underestimate an impact of something like a Shell acquisition of ARC, where over the last 15 years, and I've lived this, you've seen a lot of foreign money leave Canada. And now you have a lot of foreign money looking at Canada for a foreign direct investment. And I would say that also includes the pension funds in Canada.

我認為第二點是，你已經看到國際投資人對加拿大的語氣出現了顯著轉變。而他們不會低估像殼牌收購 ARC 這樣事件的影響；在過去 15 年裡——我親身經歷過——你看到大量外資離開加拿大。而現在你看到大量外資把加拿大作為外國直接投資的目的地來看待。我會說，這也包括加拿大的退休金基金。

I think pension funds in Canada historically looked outside of the borders. Now I think they're increasingly looking inside of the borders. And when you look at the agenda from the Prime Minister around whether it's the grand bargain out in Western Canada with pipelines and reduced emissions through carbon capture or airport privatization, which is increasingly talked about, I do think you're going to see uses of capital in the country.

我認為加拿大的退休金基金在歷史上是把目光放在境外。現在我認為它們愈來愈多地把目光轉向境內。而當你看總理的議程——不論是西加拿大關於管線與透過碳捕捉降低排放的「大交易」，或是愈來愈常被討論的機場私有化——我確實認為你將會看到資本在國內的運用。

And then the third piece I would say is CUSMA. I think it's become increasingly apparent to everybody that Canada, US and Mexico need each other. And CUSMA is not something that's going to be ripped up. I mean the business community kind of has appreciated that now, which is a significant difference than a year ago and that it may continue to evolve and there may be tariffs on specific sectors, and there may be some industries that are impacted.

然後第三個部分我會說是 CUSMA。我認為對所有人來說愈來愈明顯的是，加拿大、美國和墨西哥彼此需要。而 CUSMA 不是那種會被撕毀的東西。我的意思是，商界現在某種程度上已經理解了這一點，這和一年前相比是很大的差異；而且它可能會持續演變，某些特定產業可能會被加徵關稅，也可能有一些產業會受到影響。

But ultimately, I think it's very clear that this regional trading block is increasingly important to the US as opposed to unimportant. And so I think you'll continue to see business community get more certainty in that regard.

但歸根結底，我認為非常清楚的是，這個區域貿易集團對美國而言正變得愈來愈重要，而不是不重要。因此我認為你將會持續看到商界在這方面獲得更多確定性。

So I'm not saying that there's no pressure, particularly in some provinces. You saw the unemployment rate pick up a little bit in Quebec. But similarly, you've seen real strength in Alberta. And I do think if you look at our economists, who I think is the best economist on the street, he's highlighting to an improved outlook in Canada next year, an improved unemployment rate.

所以我不是說沒有壓力，特別是在某些省份。你看到魁北克的失業率略有上升。但同樣地，你也看到亞伯達省展現出真正的強勁。而且我確實認為，如果你看我們的經濟學家——我認為他是市場上最好的經濟學家——他正在強調加拿大明年的展望改善、失業率也會改善。

And as Shannon said, probably a little bit later than what we thought at the start of the year, but nevertheless, I think pretty positive from my perspective.

而如同 Shannon 所說，可能會比我們年初想的稍微晚一點，但即便如此，從我的角度來看，我認為仍然相當正面。

Got it. So your economists must feel pretty good about life after that praise on the call. Second question, Scott, in your prepared remarks, you said when you're addressing capital tuck-in acquisitions. So two questions. One, at these valuations, do you still want to lean into buybacks the way you have over the last 6- to 12 months? Or do you sort of become more opportunistic? And give us a sense so that the Street is not surprised what a tuck-in deal would look like?

了解。所以在電話會議上受到那樣的稱讚之後，你們的經濟學家想必對人生感覺相當不錯。第二個問題，Scott，在你事先準備的發言中，你提到在談資本的補強式（tuck-in）收購時。所以有兩個問題。第一，在這樣的估值水準下，你是否仍想像過去 6 到 12 個月那樣更偏向進行庫藏股回購？還是你會變得更機會主義一些？另外也請你讓我們了解一下，讓市場不會對補強式交易的樣貌感到意外？

Yes, sure. So on the -- I mean, the first use of capital is organic, and you're seeing our tech spend increase pretty significantly as we continue down this AI journey. So that's the first use of capital for us. The second would be share buybacks. You've seen what we've done over the last year.

是的，當然。所以——我的意思是——資本的第一個用途是內生成長，而你也看到我們的科技支出隨著我們持續走在這段 AI 旅程上而顯著增加。所以這是我們資本的第一個用途。第二個會是股票回購。你已經看到我們過去一年所做的事情。

I would expect that to remain consistent going forward. And I say that because of the valuation gap between us and our peers, which will narrow over time. And so we should take advantage of that while we're in this position. So we'll continue to do that.

我預期未來這會維持一致。我這麼說是因為我們與同業之間的估值差距，會隨時間縮小。因此在我們仍處於這個位置時，我們應該把握這個優勢。所以我們會繼續這麼做。

As we've highlighted before, I think pretty transparently, there's some capabilities in Travis' business that we need to address, particularly around mortgage capital markets. It would be nice to get some FDIC insurance. And so if we could find something small to help that mortgage capital market business, which actually really has performed well over the last year, you're starting to see it through the numbers. If we could do something to get FDIC insurance, get some more sticky deposits that allowed us to fully capitalize on that opportunity, we would do something in that regard.

如同我們之前相當透明地強調過的，Travis 的業務中有一些能力面需要我們補強，特別是在房貸資本市場方面。如果能取得一些 FDIC 保險會很好。因此如果我們能找到一些小型標的來協助那個房貸資本市場業務——而那個業務在過去一年其實表現得很好，你開始能從數字中看出來——如果我們能做些事情來取得 FDIC 保險、獲得更多黏著性存款，讓我們能充分把握那個機會，我們會在這方面採取行動。

And similarly, in Jacqui's business, having a US offshore booking point for our Mexican business is growing at 25% and the Canadian business is growing 25%, I think that would be helpful. When I say tuck-in, what's the size? I don't know, think $200 million, $300 million, $400 million. I mean we're not talking about billions of dollars here. We're talking about tuck-in. And frankly, I would like to do that sooner rather than later because I think the opportunity in those two businesses is so material.

同樣地，在 Jacqui 的業務方面，為我們的墨西哥業務設立一個美國離岸的簿記點（booking point）——墨西哥業務成長 25%，加拿大業務也成長 25%——我認為會很有幫助。當我說補強式（tuck-in）時，規模是多少？我不知道，大概想像 2 億、3 億、4 億美元。我的意思是，我們不是在談數十億美元。我們談的是補強式。而坦白說，我希望能愈早做愈好，因為我認為那兩項業務的機會非常重大。

That does conclude our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the conference back over to Raj Viswanathan for closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。接下來我會把電話會議交回給 Raj Viswanathan 作結語。

Thank you. On behalf of the entire management team, I want to thank everyone for participating in our call today, and we look forward to speaking to you again at our Q3 call in August. Have a wonderful day.

謝謝。我謹代表整個管理團隊，感謝各位今天參與我們的電話會議，我們期待在 8 月的第三季（Q3）電話會議上再次與各位交流。祝各位有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

各位女士先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與，現在您可以掛線。