Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Scotiabank's 2022 Fourth Quarter Results Presentation. My name is John McCartney. I'm Head of Investor Relations here at the bank. Presenting to you this morning are Brian Porter, Scotiabank's President and Chief Executive Officer; Raj Viswanathan, our Chief Financial Officer; and Phil Thomas, our Chief Risk Officer. Following our comments, we'll be glad to take your questions.

早上好，歡迎來到豐業銀行 2022 年第四季度業績發布會。我的名字是約翰·麥卡特尼。我是銀行的投資者關係主管。今天上午向您介紹的是豐業銀行總裁兼首席執行官布賴恩·波特 (Brian Porter)；我們的首席財務官 Raj Viswanathan；和我們的首席風險官 Phil Thomas。根據我們的意見，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Also present to take questions are the following Scotiabank executives: Dan Rees from Canadian Banking; Glenn Gollan from Global Wealth Management; [Nacoeshap] from International Banking and Jake Lawrence from Global Banking and Markets.

出席並接受提問的還有以下豐業銀行高管：來自加拿大銀行業的 Dan Rees；來自全球財富管理的 Glenn Gollan；來自國際銀行的 [Nacoeshap] 和來自全球銀行與市場的 Jake Lawrence。

Before we start, on behalf of those speaking today, I refer you to Slide 2 of our presentation, which contains Scotiabank's caution regarding forward-looking statements. With that, I will now turn the call over to Brian.

在我們開始之前，我代表今天的發言者，請您參閱我們演示文稿的幻燈片 2，其中包含豐業銀行對前瞻性陳述的警告。有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給布賴恩。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I will begin with a review of the bank's performance and progress over the course of fiscal 2022, after which Raj will review the financial year in more detail. Phil Thomas, our Chief Risk Officer, will review risk performance. We will be pleased to then take your questions.

謝謝約翰，大家早上好。我將首先回顧銀行在 2022 財年的業績和進展，之後拉吉將更詳細地回顧本財年。我們的首席風險官 Phil Thomas 將審查風險績效。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Given that this will be my last quarterly call as CEO, I will close off with a few final remarks. The 2022 fiscal year was indeed a year in which the diversification of our businesses by both product and geography allowed us to continue to deliver strong all bank results. Despite heightened market volatility and rapid monetary response to deal with elevated inflation, across our operating geographies. Each of our businesses performed well.

鑑於這將是我作為首席執行官的最後一次季度電話會議，我將以最後幾句話結束。 2022 財年確實是一年，我們的業務在產品和地域方面實現了多元化，這使我們能夠繼續取得強勁的所有銀行業績。儘管市場波動加劇，貨幣政策反應迅速以應對通貨膨脹，但在我們的運營地區。我們的每項業務都表現良好。

The bank delivered adjusted earnings of $10.8 billion in fiscal 2022 or $8.50 per share, a healthy 8% increase over 2021 and a strong 15.6% all bank return on equity, both exceeding our medium-term financial targets.

該銀行在 2022 財年的調整後收益為 108 億美元或每股收益 8.50 美元，比 2021 年健康增長 8%，所有銀行股本回報率強勁，達到 15.6%，均超過了我們的中期財務目標。

Our common equity Tier 1 capital position at 11.5% has us well positioned to continue to support organic growth initiatives while continuing to return capital to our shareholders. Loan growth was robust, up 15% with deposit growth of a commensurate 15%, which is a result of concentrated efforts and strategies to strengthen our core deposit franchise.

我們的普通股一級資本頭寸為 11.5%，這使我們能夠繼續支持有機增長計劃，同時繼續向股東返還資本。貸款增長強勁，增長了 15%，存款增長了 15%，這是加強我們核心存款業務的集中努力和戰略的結果。

As Phil will detail, we continue to observe very strong credit metrics across our portfolios despite the inflationary pressures that have been a reality for businesses and households alike over the course of the past year.

正如 Phil 將詳述的那樣，儘管在過去一年中企業和家庭都面臨通脹壓力，但我們繼續在我們的投資組合中觀察到非常強勁的信用指標。

Our full year PCL ratio was well within our guidance of 25 basis points provided at this time last year. Strong underlying fundamentals and our higher-quality secured exposures have us confident that we will deliver against our previously provided expectations in the coming year.

我們的全年 PCL 比率完全在我們去年此時提供的 25 個基點的指導範圍內。強勁的基本面和我們更高質量的安全敞口讓我們相信，我們將在來年實現我們之前提供的預期。

Specific to Q4 results, adjusted earnings of $2.6 billion or $2.06 per share represented a solid finish to the year. Canadian Banking delivered earnings of $4.8 billion, a very strong 15% increase over the prior year and more notable progress against strategic initiatives in support of future growth. Our Business Bank, which includes our commercial, small business and [Rinat] franchises, delivered another strong year in 2022. This business has been a key driver of Canadian bank performance, and we are particularly pleased with the important role that our team has played in helping commercial clients expand their businesses post the pandemic and the strong funding profile that this business provides the bank.

具體到第四季度業績，調整後的收益為 26 億美元或每股 2.06 美元，代表了今年的穩健收尾。加拿大銀行業實現了 48 億美元的收益，比上一年增長了 15%，並且在支持未來增長的戰略舉措方面取得了更顯著的進展。我們的商業銀行，包括我們的商業、小型企業和 [Rinat] 特許經營權，在 2022 年又取得了強勁的表現。這項業務一直是加拿大銀行業績的關鍵驅動力，我們對我們的團隊所發揮的重要作用感到特別滿意在幫助商業客戶在大流行之後擴展業務以及該業務為銀行提供的強大資金狀況。

This year's launch of Scene+ is another example of our ongoing efforts to further deliver value to our retail customers. The addition of Empire Company to the partnership and the inclusion of its brands, including Sobeys and IGA to the program, have added flexibility to earn and redeem points on everyday grocery in addition to banking, entertainment, dining and travel.

今年推出的 Scene+ 是我們不斷努力進一步為零售客戶創造價值的又一例證。 Empire Company 加入合作夥伴關係並將其品牌（包括 Sobeys 和 IGA）納入該計劃，增加了在銀行、娛樂、餐飲和旅行之外的日常雜貨賺取和兌換積分的靈活性。

The Scene+ relaunch has resulted in more than 1.2 million new members joining the program, which now totals over 11.2 million Canadians. And we continue to see strong performance at Tangerine, Canada's leading digital bank. Tangerine grew deposits by over $4 billion this year and continues to grow assets through a focused strategy to become an everyday bank of choice for value-oriented Canadian consumers.

Scene+ 的重新啟動已導致超過 120 萬新成員加入該計劃，現在加拿大人總數超過 1120 萬。我們繼續看到加拿大領先的數字銀行 Tangerine 的強勁表現。 Tangerine 今年的存款增加了超過 40 億美元，並通過專注的戰略繼續增加資產，成為註重價值的加拿大消費者的日常首選銀行。

Our Global Wealth business showed strong resilience in fiscal 2022, generating earnings of $1.6 billion despite the revenue impact of softer financial markets on fees, in the asset management business. Expenses continue to be well managed. Market share gains and strong investment results in dynamic funds provided some offset to the AUM impact of lower fixed income and equity markets during the course of the year.

我們的全球財富業務在 2022 財年表現出強大的彈性，儘管金融市場疲軟對資產管理業務的收入產生影響，但仍產生了 16 億美元的收益。費用繼續得到妥善管理。市場份額的增加和動態基金的強勁投資結果在一定程度上抵消了年內固定收益和股票市場較低的 AUM 影響。

On the advisory side of our business, double-digit growth led to record results in each of our private banking, ScotiaMcLeod and Private Investment Council channels. We continue this year to build and introduce new digital tools and platforms to enhance the customer investment experience, including Scotia Smart Investor and Scotia Smart Money Advice Plus, as well as a new generation of our iTrade mobile app.

在我們業務的諮詢方面，兩位數的增長導致我們的私人銀行業務、ScotiaMcLeod 和私人投資委員會的每個渠道都取得了創紀錄的業績。我們今年繼續構建和推出新的數字工具和平台，以提升客戶投資體驗，包括 Scotia Smart Investor 和 Scotia Smart Money Advice Plus，以及我們的新一代 iTrade 移動應用程序。

Our Global Banking and Markets business had a solid finish to the year in Q4, resulting in earnings of $1.9 billion for the fiscal year, down a respectable 8% year-over-year in a very challenging period of market conditions.

我們的全球銀行和市場業務在第四季度取得了不錯的成績，本財年的收益為 19 億美元，在市場條件非常具有挑戰性的時期同比下降了 8%。

Our GBM business in Latin America reported in the International Banking segment continued to show strong momentum, delivering record Q4 and annual earnings contribution of $232 million and $809 million, respectively.

我們在國際銀行部門報告的拉丁美洲 GBM 業務繼續呈現強勁勢頭，分別實現創紀錄的第四季度和年度收益貢獻 2.32 億美元和 8.09 億美元。

And rounding out our GBM strategy, our business in the United States has also grown significantly with earnings up 11% in the fiscal year. Our international business delivered significantly improved fiscal 2022 earnings of $2.4 billion, up 37% from the prior year, a result of stronger loan volumes, expanding margins and impressive expense management, while also benefiting from a lower tax rate.

為了完善我們的 GBM 戰略，我們在美國的業務也取得了顯著增長，本財年的收益增長了 11%。我們的國際業務顯著提高了 2022 財年的收入，達到 24 億美元，比上年增長 37%，這得益於貸款量增加、利潤率擴大和令人印象深刻的費用管理，同時還受益於較低的稅率。

Our ID retail businesses performed well and continued to benefit from the efficiencies that resulted from our continued efforts to further digitize our platform. Our Caribbean businesses performed well, delivering earnings in the quarter of $110 million, up 42% year-over-year and has been the Caribbean unit is back to a more normalized level of contribution.

我們的 ID 零售業務表現良好，並繼續受益於我們不斷努力進一步數字化平台所帶來的效率。我們的加勒比地區業務表現良好，本季度實現收益 1.1 億美元，同比增長 42%，而且加勒比地區業務的貢獻已恢復到更正常的水平。

Our results this year clearly reflect solid contributions across our businesses and the ability to absorb periods of volatility as evidenced by the challenging conditions faced by our market-sensitive businesses in recent quarters. Turning to our outlook. Global Growth prospects have clearly been impacted by the central banks for on inflation, and affected our various operating geographies in different ways and at a different pace.

我們今年的業績清楚地反映了我們所有業務的穩健貢獻以及吸收波動時期的能力，最近幾個季度我們對市場敏感的業務所面臨的挑戰性條件證明了這一點。轉向我們的前景。全球增長前景顯然受到中央銀行對通貨膨脹的影響，並以不同的方式和不同的速度影響我們各個運營地區。

Central banks in Canada and the United States appear to be nearing the end of their tightening cycles as inflation finally appears to be slowing. In Canada, the economic growth is moderating, but economic levels of activity remained robust.

加拿大和美國的中央銀行似乎接近其緊縮週期的尾聲，因為通貨膨脹似乎終於開始放緩。在加拿大，經濟增長正在放緩，但經濟活動水平依然強勁。

The strength of our labor market and strong balance sheets, along with robust commodity prices, are providing a counterbalance to the impact of a [less] plant European and Asian economic environment. In the Pacific Alliance countries, growth is moderating from its recent pace that's seen over the past year.

我們勞動力市場的實力和強勁的資產負債表，以及強勁的商品價格，正在抵消歐洲和亞洲經濟環境[減少]工廠的影響。在太平洋聯盟國家，增長速度較去年有所放緩。

Central banks in our key Latin American economies have responded early and aggressively to inflation with orthodox monetary policy. And despite this, we have not seen any meaningful reduction in capital sources in the region. We are confident that this decisive action will allow most central banks to hit terminal rates soon and allow others to ease during fiscal 2023.

我們主要拉丁美洲經濟體的中央銀行已通過正統貨幣政策及早積極應對通貨膨脹。儘管如此，我們還沒有看到該地區的資本來源有任何顯著減少。我們相信，這一果斷行動將使大多數中央銀行很快達到終端利率，並允許其他央行在 2023 財年放寬政策。

The bank continues to be recognized for industry excellence throughout our footprint. We were again recognized as Bank of the Year in Canada for the third year in a row, an investment bank of the year for the Americas by the banker and Best Bank in Canada by Euroline. Fiscal 2022 was also a year of great progress on our commitments to the environment and the communities in which we live and work. We have now normalized a total of $96 billion of climate-related financing, up from $58 billion last year, putting us well on track to achieve targets communicated in our inaugural Net-Zero Pathways Report published earlier this year.

該銀行在我們的整個足跡中繼續以其行業卓越表現而受到認可。我們再次連續第三年被評為加拿大年度最佳銀行，被銀行家評為美洲年度最佳投資銀行，被 Euroline 評為加拿大最佳銀行。 2022 財年也是我們在履行對環境以及我們生活和工作所在社區的承諾方面取得重大進展的一年。我們現在已經將總計 960 億美元的氣候相關融資正常化，高於去年的 580 億美元，這使我們有望實現今年早些時候發布的首份淨零途徑報告中傳達的目標。

Since launching ScotiaRISE, our $500 million 10-year community investment commitment, we have partnered with more than 200 nonprofit organizations and made more than $60 million in community investments globally, creating opportunity for hundreds of thousands of people in communities where we live and work.

自推出 ScotiaRISE（我們 5 億美元的 10 年社區投資承諾）以來，我們已與 200 多個非營利組織合作，並在全球範圍內進行了超過 6000 萬美元的社區投資，為我們生活和工作的社區中的數十萬人創造了機會。

And our Scotiabank Women's initiative continues to grow. Our capital deployed to women owned and women-led businesses grew to $5.6 billion, against our target to reach $10 billion by 2025.

我們的豐業銀行女性倡議繼續發展。我們分配給女性所有和女性領導的企業的資本增長到 56 億美元，而我們的目標是到 2025 年達到 100 億美元。

And finally, one of my proudest moments as CEO. Just last month, we were recognized as 1 of the top 25 World Best Workplaces by Great Place to Work Institute, the only Canadian headquartered company and the only bank to be recognized in the field.

最後，這是我作為 CEO 最自豪的時刻之一。就在上個月，我們被 Great Place to Work Institute 評為世界最佳工作場所 25 強之一，這是唯一一家總部位於加拿大的公司，也是唯一一家在該領域獲得認可的銀行。

Overall, we are very pleased with our financial results and progress on many strategic growth initiatives over the course of the past year. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Raj.

總體而言，我們對過去一年的財務業績和許多戰略增長計劃的進展感到非常滿意。有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Raj。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. This quarter's net income was impacted by certain adjusting items of $504 million after tax or $0.43 of EPS at above 2 basis points on our common equity Tier 1 ratio that was recorded in the other segment. This consisted of a $66 million restructuring charge relating to the realignment of certain GBM businesses in Asia and ongoing technology modernization, $98 million of support costs relating to the expansion of our Scene+ loyalty program and a $340 million currency-related loss resulting from the sale of investments in associates in Venezuela and Thailand, as well as the wind-down of operations in India and Malaysia.

謝謝你，布賴恩，大家早上好。本季度的淨收入受到稅後 5.04 億美元或每股收益 0.43 美元的某些調整項目的影響，我們的普通股 1 比率超過 2 個基點，記錄在其他部門。這包括 6600 萬美元的重組費用，與亞洲某些 GBM 業務的調整和持續的技術現代化有關，9800 萬美元的支持費用與擴展我們的 Scene+ 忠誠度計劃有關，以及 3.4 億美元的貨幣相關損失因出售對委內瑞拉和泰國聯營公司的投資，以及印度和馬來西亞業務的結束。

All my comments on the bank and the other segment that will follow will be after adjusting for these items. So starting on Slide 5, on fiscal 2022 performance. The bank ended the year with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $8.50 and a return on equity of 15.6%, both exceeding our medium-term objectives.

我對銀行和隨後的其他部分的所有評論都將在對這些項目進行調整後進行。所以從幻燈片 5 開始，關於 2022 財年的表現。該銀行年底調整後的稀釋每股收益為 8.50 美元，股本回報率為 15.6%，均超過了我們的中期目標。

Revenue was up 2% and expenses increased 3%, resulting in negative operating leverage for the year. Our business lines, particularly our P&C businesses, has had strong performance. Canadian Banking earnings increased 15%, while International Banking earnings increased 37% on constant currency basis.

收入增長 2%，支出增長 3%，導致全年經營槓桿為負。我們的業務線，尤其是財產險業務，表現強勁。加拿大銀行業收入增長 15%，而國際銀行業收入按固定匯率計算增長 37%。

Global Wealth Management earnings of $1.6 billion were down a modest 1% year-over-year as higher net interest income and brokerage revenues were offset by lower mutual fund fees, driven primarily by market conditions and higher volume-related expenses.

全球財富管理業務收益為 16 億美元，同比小幅下降 1%，原因是較高的淨利息收入和經紀收入被較低的共同基金費用所抵消，這主要是受市場狀況和較高的交易量相關費用的推動。

Global Banking and Markets reported earnings of $1.9 billion, down 8% compared to fiscal 2021. Solid business banking performance, including strong loan growth momentum, was offset by weaker capital markets performance in which the industry faced challenging market conditions.

全球銀行和市場業務報告收益為 19 億美元，與 2021 財年相比下降 8%。穩健的商業銀行業務業績（包括強勁的貸款增長勢頭）被資本市場表現疲軟所抵消，該行業面臨充滿挑戰的市場條件。

The bank's earnings in 2023 are expected to benefit from higher interest income and noninterest revenue, but be impacted by higher funding costs, higher expenses, normalizing provisions for credit losses relating to the end of performing along its releases and a higher tax rate in both Canada and certain international countries. Once rates stabilize, the bank is expected to benefit from asset repricing, resulting in net interest margin expansion.

該銀行 2023 年的收益預計將受益於更高的利息收入和非利息收入，但會受到更高的融資成本、更高的費用、與發行期結束相關的信貸損失撥備正常化以及加拿大和加拿大更高的稅率的影響和某些國際國家。一旦利率穩定下來，預計該銀行將受益於資產重新定價，從而導致淨息差擴大。

The bank's capital and liquidity position is expected to remain strong in 2023. I'll now review the performance for the quarter on Slide 6.

該銀行的資本和流動性狀況預計將在 2023 年保持強勁。我現在將在幻燈片 6 上回顧本季度的表現。

The bank reported solid quarterly adjusted earnings of $2.6 billion and diluted earnings per share of $2.06 and the return on equity was 15%. All bank pretax pre-provision profit increased 2% year-over-year, impacted by the other segment as the pretax pre-provision profit of the 4 business lines in aggregate increased 7% as detailed on Slide 25.

該銀行公佈季度調整後收益為 26 億美元，每股攤薄收益為 2.06 美元，股本回報率為 15%。所有銀行稅前撥備前利潤同比增長 2%，受其他部門的影響，4 個業務線的稅前撥備前利潤合計增長 7%，詳見幻燈片 25。

Revenues were up 4% year-over-year as an increase in net interest income of 10% more than offset a decline in noninterest revenue of 3%, mainly driven by lower wealth management revenues lower unrealized gains on nontrading derivatives and lower income from associated corporations. The net interest margin declined 4 basis points quarter-over-quarter, mainly driven by the increase in funding costs due to the velocity of administrate increases. The impact of the Canadian Banking net interest margin of 3 basis points was partially offset by the 13 basis points expansion in the International Banking, which benefited from asset repricing.

收入同比增長 4%，因為淨利息收入增長 10%，抵消了非利息收入下降 3%的影響，這主要是由於財富管理收入減少，非交易衍生品未實現收益減少，以及相關收入減少公司。淨息差環比下降 4 個基點，主要是由於監管速度加快導致融資成本增加。加拿大銀行業淨息差 3 個基點的影響被國際銀行業受益於資產重新定價的 13 個基點擴張部分抵消。

The PCL ratio was 28 basis points for the quarter, up 6 basis points from last quarter. Year-over-year adjusted expenses increased by 6%, driven by higher personnel costs and performance-based compensation and spend to support business growth.

本季度 PCL 比率為 28 個基點，比上一季度上升 6 個基點。調整後的費用同比增長 6%，受人員成本增加以及基於績效的薪酬和支持業務增長的支出的推動。

The productivity ratio closed 53.7% this quarter, while the whole year operating leverage was negative 1.1%. Slide 7 provides an evolution of the common equity Tier 1 ratio over the quarter as well as the cordless changes in risk-weighted assets.

本季度生產率收於53.7%，而全年經營槓桿為負1.1%。幻燈片 7 提供了本季度普通股一級比率的演變以及風險加權資產的無線變化。

The bank reported a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 11.5%, up 10 basis points from last quarter, primarily from strong earnings net of dividends that accreted 21 basis points. Risk-weighted assets grew $9.6 billion in the quarter, mostly related to foreign exchange. Excluding the impact of FX, loan growth was $6.1 billion. Combined with positive migration, the CET1 ratio benefited 2 basis points.

該銀行報告的普通股一級資本比率為 11.5%，比上一季度上升 10 個基點，這主要是由於扣除股息後的強勁收益增加了 21 個基點。本季度風險加權資產增長 96 億美元，主要與外匯有關。排除外彙的影響，貸款增長為 61 億美元。加上積極的遷移，CET1 比率受益 2 個基點。

The impact of higher rates on the bond portfolio held for liquidity purposes and fair value through OCI had a 14 basis points impact on the CET1 ratio this quarter. Our priority remains to deploy capital to support organic growth initiatives in each business line while prudently managing capital in the face of a less certain economic outlook. Turning now to the business line results beginning on Slide 8.

較高的利率對為流動性目的持有的債券組合和通過 OCI 的公允價值的影響對本季度的 CET1 比率產生了 14 個基點的影響。我們的首要任務仍然是部署資本以支持各業務線的有機增長計劃，同時在經濟前景不太確定的情況下審慎管理資本。現在轉向從幻燈片 8 開始的業務線結果。

Canadian Banking reported earnings of $1.2 billion, a decrease of 5% year-over-year, while pretax pre-provision profit grew 10% year-over-year, driven by revenue growth of 11%. Net interest income increased 13%, as loan and deposit growth continued, while the net interest margin declined 3 basis points since Q3 as lower spreads in particular, the prime SEDAR compression, the lag on fixed rate asset repricing and lower mortgage prepayments were partially offset by higher deposit spreads.

加拿大銀行業公佈的收益為 12 億美元，同比下降 5%，而在收入增長 11% 的推動下，稅前撥備前利潤同比增長 10%。隨著貸款和存款的持續增長，淨利息收入增長了 13%，而淨息差自第三季度以來下降了 3 個基點，特別是由於較低的利差、主要 SEDAR 壓縮、固定利率資產重新定價的滯後和較低的抵押貸款預付款被部分抵消通過更高的存款利差。

As expected, Quarter-over-quarter mortgages grew a modest 1%, but increased 11% compared to the prior year. Business loans grew a strong 25% compared to last year. Deposit growth during the quarter was strong at 7% year-over-year, driven by an 8% increase in personal deposits and a 6% increase in nonpersonal.

正如預期的那樣，抵押貸款環比增長 1%，但與去年同期相比增長了 11%。與去年相比，商業貸款強勁增長了 25%。在個人存款增長 8% 和非個人存款增長 6% 的推動下，本季度存款增長強勁，同比增長 7%。

Noninterest income increased by 3%, due primarily to higher banking revenue and foreign exchange fees, partially offset by lower mutual fund distribution fees. Expenses increased 12% year-over-year, driven by higher technology and personnel costs to support business growth.

非利息收入增長 3%，主要是由於銀行收入和外匯費用增加，部分被共同基金分銷費用減少所抵消。受支持業務增長的更高技術和人員成本的推動，費用同比增長 12%。

The segment generated positive operating leverage for the year of 1.5%. The PCL ratio was 15 basis points, an increase of 6 basis points compared to the prior quarter or 25 basis points compared to the prior year. Medium banking revenue growth is expected to be driven by deposit and loan growth with stable margins while mortgage growth is expected to decelerate.

該部門在當年產生了 1.5% 的正經營槓桿。 PCL 比率為 15 個基點，比上一季度增加 6 個基點，比去年同期增加 25 個基點。中等銀行收入增長預計將受到存款和貸款增長的推動，利潤率穩定，而抵押貸款增長預計將放緩。

The segment will maintain strong expense discipline to generate positive operating leverage. 2023 earnings are expected to be impacted by normalization in provision for credit losses and a higher tax rate.

該部門將保持嚴格的費用紀律，以產生積極的經營槓桿。預計 2023 年的收益將受到信貸損失撥備正常化和更高稅率的影響。

Turning now to Global Wealth Management on Slide 9. Earnings of $368 million declined 6% year-over-year. Revenue declined 4% due primarily to lower fee income driven by lower assets under management and high trade volumes, partially offset by higher interest income driven by strong loan growth and improved margins.

現在轉到幻燈片 9 上的全球財富管理。收益為 3.68 億美元，同比下降 6%。收入下降 4%，主要是由於管理資產減少和交易量增加導致手續費收入減少，部分被貸款增長強勁和利潤率提高推動的利息收入增加所抵消。

Expenses declined 3%, driven by lower volume-related expenses, while the productivity ratio this quarter was 61.2%. The wealth business line has generated positive operating leverage in 10 of the last 12 quarters and adjusting for performance fees generated operating leverage of positive 0.8% in the full fiscal year.

受銷量相關費用下降的推動，費用下降了 3%，而本季度的生產率為 61.2%。財富業務線在過去 12 個季度中的 10 個季度產生了正的經營槓桿，並且在整個財政年度調整業績費用產生了 0.8% 的正經營槓桿。

Assets under management decreased 10% to $311 billion, while assets under administration decreased 3% to $580 billion, primarily due to market depreciation. Despite a challenging market environment, we continue to be ranked #2 by assets in the Canadian retail mutual fund industry.

管理資產減少 10% 至 3,110 億美元，而管理資產減少 3% 至 5,800 億美元，主要原因是市場貶值。儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，但我們在加拿大零售共同基金行業的資產方面繼續排名第二。

Investment returns have been strong across co-share global asset management with 72% of assets in the top 2 quartiles over a 5-year period as of October. Dynamic Funds is ranked #3 among independent asset managers with 87% of assets in the top 2 quartiles over a 5-year period. We also saw strong growth in our key international markets with double-digit earnings growth across the Pacific Alliance Wealth Management businesses.

截至 10 月的 5 年期間，共同分享全球資產管理的投資回報率一直很高，72% 的資產位於前 2 個四分位。 Dynamic Funds 在獨立資產管理公司中排名第三，5 年期間 87% 的資產位於前 2 個四分位。我們還看到我們在主要國際市場的強勁增長，太平洋聯盟財富管理業務的收入實現了兩位數的增長。

Global Wealth Management expects modest revenue growth, and we'll continue to invest in the business while remaining focused on managing expense growth in line with revenue growth. Earnings are expected to remain stable in 2023, reflecting the slowing economic backdrop and a higher statutory tax rate.

Global Wealth Management 預計收入將適度增長，我們將繼續投資於該業務，同時繼續專注於根據收入增長來管理費用增長。預計 2023 年的收益將保持穩定，反映出經濟放緩的背景和更高的法定稅率。

Turning to Slide 10. Global Banking and Markets generated earnings of $484 million, down 4% compared to the prior year, but up 28% compared to the prior quarter. Business were driven by strong loan and deposit growth as loans grew 31% year-over-year while deposits grew 12%. Revenue increased 15% as net interest income grew 35%, driven by strong volume growth and expanding margins.

轉到幻燈片 10。全球銀行和市場業務產生了 4.84 億美元的收益，與去年同期相比下降了 4%，但與上一季度相比增長了 28%。業務受到強勁的貸款和存款增長的推動，貸款同比增長 31%，而存款增長 12%。收入增長 15%，淨利息收入增長 35%，受強勁的銷量增長和利潤率擴大的推動。

Noninterest income grew 6%, as higher banking revenues was partially offset by weaker primary and secondary markets. Capital Markets revenue was down 9% from last year. However, it rebounded 19% from the prior quarter.

非利息收入增長 6%，因為較高的銀行收入部分被疲軟的一級和二級市場所抵消。資本市場收入比去年下降了 9%。然而，它比上一季度反彈了 19%。

Expenses were up 18% year-over-year, due mainly to personal costs and technology costs to support business development and the negative impact of foreign policy translation. GBM Latin America, which is reported as part of International Banking, reported record earnings of $232 million, up 29% year-over-year with particularly strong results from Chile and Brazil.

費用同比增長 18%，主要是由於支持業務發展的個人成本和技術成本以及外交政策翻譯的負面影響。作為國際銀行業務的一部分，GBM Latin America 報告的收益達到創紀錄的 2.32 億美元，同比增長 29%，其中智利和巴西的業績尤其強勁。

Global Banking and Markets expects to deliver earnings growth in 2023. Through the Americas strategy, the segment continues to deepen client relationships while also adding new clients. Capital Markets results are expected to improve, driven by more favorable market conditions and increased levels of client activity.

全球銀行和市場預計將在 2023 年實現收益增長。通過美洲戰略，該部門繼續深化客戶關係，同時增加新客戶。在更有利的市場條件和客戶活動水平增加的推動下，資本市場業績預計將有所改善。

The segment plans to deliver on disciplined expense management that is expected to result in positive operating leverage to more than offset any increase in provision for credit losses.

該部門計劃實施嚴格的費用管理，預計將產生積極的經營槓桿，以抵消信貸損失準備金的任何增加。

Slide 11 highlights this quarter's strong international banking results. My comments that follow are on an adjusted and constant dollar basis. The segment reported net income of $650 million, up 25% year-over-year. Pretax pre-provision profit grew 9% year-over-year with the Pacific Alliance growing 6% and Corrugated Central America up 18%.

幻燈片 11 強調了本季度強勁的國際銀行業業績。我接下來的評論是在調整後的固定美元基礎上發表的。該部門報告的淨收入為 6.5 億美元，同比增長 25%。稅前撥備前利潤同比增長 9%，其中太平洋聯盟增長 6%，中美洲瓦楞紙增長 18%。

Year-over-year, [Loans up] 12%, with commercial loans also up 12% and mortgages up 16%, while personal loans and credit cards grew 9%. Revenue was up 8% year-over-year, driven by higher net interest margin, strong capital markets and banking fees and partially offset by lower gains in investment securities.

與去年同期相比，[貸款增長]12%，商業貸款也增長 12%，抵押貸款增長 16%，而個人貸款和信用卡增長 9%。收入同比增長 8%，這主要得益於更高的淨息差、強勁的資本市場和銀行手續費，部分被投資證券收益的減少所抵消。

Quarter-over-quarter, the net interest margin improved a strong 13 basis points. Assets repriced faster to offset the increase in funding costs and impacts from changes in deposit mix. Provision for credit losses ratio decreased year-over-year by 2 basis points to 89 basis points.

與上一季度相比，淨息差大幅改善了 13 個基點。資產重新定價更快，以抵消融資成本的增加和存款組合變化的影響。信用損失準備金率同比下降2個基點至89個基點。

Noninterest expenses increased 7% year-over-year, driven by business growth and inflationary impacts, partially offset by the benefit from efficiency initiatives executed last year. The tax rate of 13.6% for the quarter and 18.9% for the year benefited primarily from higher inflation benefits in Mexico and Chile.

在業務增長和通脹影響的推動下，非利息支出同比增長 7%，部分被去年執行的效率舉措帶來的收益所抵消。本季度 13.6% 的稅率和全年 18.9% 的稅率主要受益於墨西哥和智利較高的通脹收益。

With lower inflation expectations in 2023, the tax rate is expected to return to more normal levels starting in Q1 2023. The segment generated positive operating leverage of 1.8% for the whole year.

由於 2023 年通脹預期較低，預計稅率將從 2023 年第一季度開始恢復到更正常的水平。該部門全年產生了 1.8% 的正經營槓桿。

Revenues in the International Bank are expected to benefit from loan growth and modest net interest margin expansion as a result of the expected stabilization of interest rates and potential rate reductions in the second half of 2023.

由於預期的利率穩定和 2023 年下半年的潛在降息，預計國際銀行的收入將受益於貸款增長和適度的淨息差擴張。

Expenses are expected to grow in line with revenue, supported by strong digital progress to deliver positive operating leverage. Earnings are expected to be impacted by normalizing provision for credit losses and a higher tax rate. Now turning to the other segment. We reported an adjusted net loss of $100 million compared to a loss of $35 million in the prior year.

在強勁的數字化進步提供積極運營槓桿的支持下，預計支出將與收入同步增長。預計收益將受到信貸損失撥備正常化和更高稅率的影響。現在轉向另一個部分。我們報告調整後的淨虧損為 1 億美元，而上一年為虧損 3500 萬美元。

Year-over-year, the change was a result of higher funding costs resulting from higher interest rates and asset liability management activities. With that, I'll turn the call to Phil to discuss risk.

與去年同期相比，這一變化是由於更高的利率和資產負債管理活動導致融資成本增加。有了這個，我會把電話轉給菲爾討論風險。

Thank you, Raj. Good morning, everyone. For fiscal 2022, the bank reported an all-bank PCL of 19 basis points, well within our guidance of 25 basis points.

謝謝你，拉吉。大家，早安。對於 2022 財年，該銀行報告的全銀行 PCL 為 19 個基點，完全在我們 25 個基點的指導範圍內。

As we look to 2023, we remain confident that our PCL ratio will be in the mid-30s basis point range. This is driven by 3 key factors: a higher quality customer mix; A more stable and predictable portfolio driven by a higher level of secured lending; and our strong credit and underwriting fundamentals, which position us well for macroeconomic uncertainty. I will now highlight some of the trends we are seeing for the quarter across our portfolios.

展望 2023 年，我們仍然相信我們的 PCL 比率將處於 30 多個基點範圍內。這是由 3 個關鍵因素驅動的：更高質量的客戶組合；由更高水平的擔保貸款驅動的更穩定和可預測的投資組合；以及我們強大的信用和承保基本面，這使我們能夠很好地應對宏觀經濟的不確定性。我現在將重點介紹我們在本季度的投資組合中看到的一些趨勢。

Despite higher interest rates and inflation, our customers' financial health remains resilient. Canadian retail deposits, on average, are 13% higher than they were in February 2020. And delinquency of 90-plus days for Canadian retail has been stable at 15 basis points for the last 3 quarters and roughly half of the pre-pandemic ratio.

儘管利率和通貨膨脹率上升，但我們客戶的財務狀況仍然保持彈性。加拿大零售存款平均比 2020 年 2 月高出 13%。過去 3 個季度，加拿大零售 90 多天的拖欠率穩定在 15 個基點，大約是大流行前比率的一半。

We remain confident in our Canadian market. After 6 rate hikes by the Bank of Canada this year, our Canadian variable rate mortgage customers continue to maintain high liquidity with approximately 36% higher balances in their deposit accounts compared to fixed rate customers.

我們對加拿大市場仍然充滿信心。在加拿大銀行今年加息 6 次之後，我們的加拿大可變利率抵押貸款客戶繼續保持高流動性，與固定利率客戶相比，他們的存款賬戶餘額高出約 36%。

Our uninsured mortgage portfolio will average LTV of 49% and average FICO scores of 799. In International Banking, our retail portfolio remains 72% secured versus 65% to pre-pandemic. High-quality rated customers also remain at 96% of originations. Portfolio delinquency of 90-plus days increased marginally this quarter by 8 basis points, in line with slowing economic growth but remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

我們的無保險抵押貸款組合的平均 LTV 為 49%，平均 FICO 分數為 799。在國際銀行業務中，我們的零售組合仍保持 72% 的安全性，而大流行前為 65%。高質量評級的客戶也保持在 96% 的來源。本季度 90 天以上的投資組合拖欠率略微增加了 8 個基點，這與經濟增長放緩一致，但仍遠低於大流行前的水平。

Finally, in Business Banking, we have observed upgrades across the portfolio due to customer performance. Credit quality and liquidity levels remain strong. While Business Banking gross impaired loans are up slightly quarter-over-quarter. They are primarily driven by foreign exchange fluctuations and 1 account in International Banking.

最後，在商業銀行業務方面，我們觀察到由於客戶表現而導致的整個投資組合的升級。信貸質量和流動性水平依然強勁。而商業銀行業務的總減值貸款環比略有上升。它們主要受外匯波動和 1 個國際銀行賬戶的驅動。

Now turning to PCL on Slide 15. PCLs this quarter were $529 million. This increase in our PCL ratio this quarter to 28 basis points, reflects normalizing trends and forward-looking indicators. The increase from last quarter was mainly driven by Stage 3 PCLs up $105 million as delinquency levels rose modestly, primarily in international retail and GBM, though remaining well within our expectations and well below pre-pandemic levels.

現在轉向幻燈片 15 上的 PCL。本季度的 PCL 為 5.29 億美元。本季度我們的 PCL 比率增加到 28 個基點，反映了正常化趨勢和前瞻性指標。上一季度的增長主要是由於第三階段 PCL 增加了 1.05 億美元，因為拖欠水平略有上升，主要是在國際零售和 GBM 中，但仍處於我們的預期之內，遠低於大流行前的水平。

Year-over-year, performing PCLs were up, driven by a less favorable macroeconomic forecast and strong portfolio growth. We continue to be focused on high-quality credit originations and diversification across markets as we look to fiscal year '23.

在不太有利的宏觀經濟預測和強勁的投資組合增長的推動下，表現良好的 PCL 與去年同期相比有所上升。展望 23 財年，我們將繼續專注於高質量的信貸發放和市場多元化。

Our current allowances for credit losses this quarter were $5.5 billion, up $204 million quarter-over-quarter or an ACL ratio of 71 basis points. Nonperforming ACL increased slightly this quarter as we saw small increases in deal formations and net write-offs primarily driven by international retail and commercial.

本季度我們當前的信貸損失準備金為 55 億美元，環比增加 2.04 億美元，ACL 比率為 71 個基點。本季度不良 ACL 略有增加，因為我們看到主要由國際零售和商業驅動的交易形成和淨註銷略有增加。

Total ACL coverage represents about 12 quarters of net write-offs, almost double our pre-pandemic levels. While current macroeconomic -- and while the current macroeconomic environment continues to be uncertain, we remain prudent in building allowances in response to these changing conditions.

ACL 總覆蓋率約占淨註銷的 12 個季度，幾乎是大流行前水平的兩倍。雖然當前的宏觀經濟——儘管當前的宏觀經濟環境仍然不確定，但我們在應對這些不斷變化的情況時仍然謹慎地建立津貼。

Our coverage reflects the quality of our portfolio, strong credit practices and changes to business mix. Looking ahead to fiscal 2023, we expect strong credit performance to continue. While pressure from inflation and interest rates will continue to be a factor. We believe our efforts to derisk our portfolios have positioned us well to manage economic uncertainties. For these reasons, our earlier outlook of PCL ratios in the mid-30s basis point range remains unchanged.

我們的覆蓋範圍反映了我們投資組合的質量、強大的信貸實踐和業務組合的變化。展望 2023 財年，我們預計強勁的信貸表現將繼續。而來自通脹和利率的壓力將繼續成為一個因素。我們相信，我們為降低投資組合風險所做的努力使我們能夠很好地管理經濟不確定性。由於這些原因，我們之前對 PCL 比率在 30 多個基點範圍內的展望保持不變。

And finally, I would like to congratulate Brian and thank Brian on behalf of all Scotiabankers globally for his 41 years of service and leadership. Thank you, Brian.

最後，我要代表全球所有豐業銀行員工向 Brian 表示祝賀，並感謝 Brian 41 年的服務和領導。謝謝你，布萊恩。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I will now turn the call over to John for Q&A.

我現在將電話轉給約翰進行問答。

Thanks, Phil. We'll now be pleased to take your questions. Please limit your question to 1 and then rejoin the queue to allow everyone the opportunity to participate in the call. Operator, can we have the first question on the phone, please?

謝謝，菲爾。我們現在很高興回答您的問題。請將您的問題限制為 1 個，然後重新加入隊列，讓每個人都有機會參與通話。接線員，我們可以在電話上提出第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Good morning. So I guess maybe, Raj, for you on the net interest margin. If we can just break down in terms of the outlook for the margin consolidated versus the Canadian and the international banking NIM. You gave some color earlier. But what happens to the 3 net interest margins in a world where Bank of Canada, the Central Banks are hiking rates. And do we actually need rate cuts in Canada for the Canadian bank NIM to stop going lower?

早上好。所以我想也許，Raj，對你來說是淨息差。如果我們可以根據合併利潤率與加拿大和國際銀行業 NIM 的前景進行細分。你之前給了一些顏色。但是，在加拿大銀行和中央銀行加息的情況下，淨息差 3 會發生什麼變化。我們真的需要在加拿大降息以使加拿大銀行 NIM 停止走低嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Ebrahim, and good morning. I'm not going to forecast margin quarter-by-quarter, and I'll ask Dan or (inaudible) to comment on the specific business line margins. But I would call out 4 important factors and I think our net interest margin evolution over the next 2 years, '23, '24 lots of changes that are happening.

是的。謝謝，易卜拉欣，早上好。我不會按季度預測利潤率，我會請 Dan 或（聽不清）對具體業務線的利潤率發表評論。但我會指出 4 個重要因素，我認為我們的淨息差在未來 2 年、23 年、24 年會發生很多變化。

Trajectory of central bank industry changes, definitely, is going to be a factor of our margin reaction at the all bank level. The schedule of assets repricing, that's actually quite well underway both in IP as well as starting to do in the Canadian Banking business segment. And thus we expect it to accelerate. Changes in business mix as the bank expects to generate less low-margin mortgages. The business has slowed as I said in my prepared remarks in the Canadian bank and, of course, deposit margin behaviors. So these factors have always been a key for the net interest margin evolution for this bank, and I think it will be key to how it's going to evolve in 2023 and into 2024 as well. Dan, do you want to say something with the Canadian banking margin or a...

央行行業變化的軌跡無疑將成為我們在所有銀行層面的保證金反應的一個因素。資產重新定價的時間表，實際上在 IP 以及加拿大銀行業務部門都在進行得很好。因此我們預計它會加速。業務組合發生變化，因為銀行預計會產生較少的低利潤抵押貸款。正如我在加拿大銀行準備好的發言中所說，業務已經放緩，當然還有存款保證金行為。因此，這些因素一直是這家銀行淨息差演變的關鍵，我認為這將是它在 2023 年和 2024 年如何演變的關鍵。丹，你想談談加拿大銀行業的保證金還是...

Ebrahim, it's Dan here. I would just say that we expect margin in the Canadian bank to build [above] the Q4 levels as they look at the full year of next year. Certainly, the change in business mix has an impact. And of course, the speed of loan repricing is underway through the course of this quarter, and we expect that to expand into next year.

易卜拉欣，我是丹。我只想說，我們預計這家加拿大銀行的利潤率將在明年全年達到 [高於] 第四季度的水平。當然，業務組合的變化會產生影響。當然，貸款重新定價的速度在本季度正在進行，我們預計這種情況將擴大到明年。

The composition of deposits is important to bear in mind here. Obviously, as we grow our business banking book, there's a fair portion of non-maturity deposits in there for which the deposit NIM has been a tailwind this quarter, and we expect that to continue for the next couple of quarters. And I think our emphasis on deposits may well have been overshadowed in the front half of the year where we saw strong mortgage growth. Clearly, in the last 2 quarters, you've seen deposit growth rates in Canadian Banking equal or beat loan growth rates and in Q4 and balances deposits grew faster than loans. So that emphasis on a balanced balance sheet will continue in '23, and that should help NIM.

在這裡牢記存款的構成很重要。顯然，隨著我們的商業銀行賬戶的增長，其中有相當一部分非到期存款，本季度存款 NIM 一直是順風，我們預計未來幾個季度將繼續如此。而且我認為我們對存款的重視很可能在今年上半年我們看到強勁的抵押貸款增長時黯然失色。顯然，在過去兩個季度中，您看到加拿大銀行業的存款增長率等於或超過貸款增長率，而在第四季度和余額中，存款增長快於貸款。因此，對平衡資產負債表的強調將在 23 年繼續，這應該有助於 NIM。

And Ebrahim, in terms of more -- in terms of International Banking, NIM was up 13 bps in the quarter, and this was driven by the Caribbean and Central America, while in the Pacific Alliance countries, where Central Banks moderated the pace of interest rate increases, NIM stabilized compared to last quarter.

而易卜拉欣，就國際銀行業而言，本季度 NIM 上漲了 13 個基點，這是由加勒比海和中美洲推動的，而在太平洋聯盟國家，中央銀行放慢了利息步伐利率上調，淨息差較上季度企穩。

In the Caribbean, we have 50% of our balances are U.S. dollars. NIM increased 38 bps in the quarter, driven by the benefit of higher [Fed] rates. And in the Pacific Alliance countries, NIM increased 3 bps in the quarter with assets repricing faster than liabilities. I would say Central banks in the Pacific Alice countries took proactive measures in advance of the Fed to increase interest rate. The tightening (inaudible) cycle is ending, and it is likely there will be some of the first countries to start a reduction trend in [2023], starting with Chile.

在加勒比地區，我們有 50% 的餘額是美元。在[美聯儲]利率上升的推動下，NIM 在本季度增加了 38 個基點。在太平洋聯盟國家，本季度 NIM 增加了 3 個基點，資產重新定價的速度快於負債。我想說太平洋愛麗絲國家的中央銀行在美聯儲提高利率之前採取了積極措施。緊縮（聽不清）週期正在結束，可能會有一些國家在 [2023 年] 開始出現削減趨勢，首先是智利。

But just 1 follow-up on that, Dan. Why is the Canadian NIM not going higher $112 billion of variable rate mortgages? Is the spread compression offsetting the increase in benchmark rates or am I missing something?

但只有 1 個後續行動，丹。為什麼加拿大 NIM 不增加 1120 億美元的可變利率抵押貸款？利差壓縮是否抵消了基準利率的上升，還是我遺漏了什麼？

Look, there's just a lot of moving parts, Ebrahim. Certainly, we did see in Q4 the movement to fixed in mortgages occur as we have been indicating for some time. So that would have been a component. The movement out of low pay deposits into term as consumers were anxious about equity markets, and that would have been a component.

看，易卜拉欣，只有很多活動部件。當然，我們確實在第四季度看到了向固定抵押貸款的轉變，正如我們一段時間以來一直指出的那樣。所以那將是一個組成部分。由於消費者對股票市場感到焦慮，低息存款轉為定期存款，這本來是一個組成部分。

There's a lot of moving parts in margin, where we ended in Q4 is about where we expected. We gave back some of the expansion you saw in Q2 and Q3, and we expect to be growing through the course of next year in the aggregate.

保證金中有很多變動的部分，我們在第四季度結束的地方與我們預期的差不多。我們回饋了您在第二季度和第三季度看到的一些擴張，我們預計明年總體上會增長。

Got it. And Brian, congratulations on your retirement and good luck.

知道了。布賴恩，祝賀你退休，祝你好運。

Thank you, Ebrahim.

謝謝你，易卜拉欣。

Our following question is from Paul Holden from CIBC.

我們的以下問題來自 CIBC 的 Paul Holden。

So there's a lot of questions popping up around variable rate mortgages. And obviously, Scotia is 1 of 2 banks that offer variable payment, variable rate mortgages and you addressed it a bit in your prepared remarks, but wondering if you can dive down a little bit deeper just in terms of how those higher interest payments are impacting consumer behavior if at all, sort of give us a flavor maybe for what proportion of converted to fixed payments or again, any kind of pressure or payment behavior you're seeing? .

因此，圍繞可變利率抵押貸款出現了很多問題。很明顯，Scotia 是提供可變支付、可變利率抵押貸款的兩家銀行中的一家，您在準備好的評論中稍微提到了這一點，但想知道您是否可以更深入地了解這些更高利息支付的影響消費者行為（如果有的話）可能會讓我們了解轉換為固定付款的比例，或者您看到的任何類型的壓力或付款行為？ .

Sure, Paul. It's Dan here. I'll start and maybe Phil could add if he would like. We really appreciate the question. We believe strongly that a variable rate mortgage should have a payment that varies. We are not seeing credit pressure in that category during Q4, full stop.

當然，保羅。我是丹。我會開始，如果 Phil 願意，也許他可以補充。我們非常感謝這個問題。我們堅信可變利率抵押貸款的還款額應該有所不同。我們在第四季度沒有看到該類別的信貸壓力，句號。

We are certainly preparing for and are having lots of conversations about cash flow management at the customer level. But big picture, the creditworthiness of the variable customer is higher than fixed. And as Phil would have mentioned in his remarks, deposit balances are substantially higher. And as we look at the liquidity position of checking and savings accounts combined in the variable customer balances that are with us, we see well over a year worth of excess liquidity to absorb payment increases of $200, $300, $400 per month. So we're not concerned about the credit side of the mortgage position.

我們當然正在為客戶層面的現金流管理做準備並進行大量對話。但總的來說，可變客戶的信用度高於固定客戶。正如菲爾在他的評論中提到的那樣，存款餘額要高得多。當我們查看支票賬戶和儲蓄賬戶的流動性頭寸結合我們的可變客戶餘額時，我們看到一年多的過剩流動性足以吸收每月 200 美元、300 美元、400 美元的付款增加。所以我們不關心抵押貸款頭寸的信用方面。

And on the other hand, we're not seeing tremendous pressure on payment levels. In other words, credit card balances expanded this quarter, as you will have seen, and our personal deposits are holding in on the nonmaturity side. So from a consumer behavior standpoint, the variable customer is in good shape.

另一方面，我們沒有看到支付水平的巨大壓力。換句話說，本季度信用卡餘額有所增加，如您所見，我們的個人存款處於非到期狀態。因此，從消費者行為的角度來看，可變客戶處於良好狀態。

I think our proportion of mix there is not showing up in the credit line, and we're confident with the transparent structure and the conversations with -- that we're having with customers to date.

我認為我們在那裡的混合比例沒有出現在信用額度中，我們對透明的結構和我們與客戶進行的對話充滿信心。

The final thing I would say is on a big picture basis, strategically, we've been focused in the mortgage business at cross-selling into the deposits. We've been doing that year-on-year now for the last 3 years, 50% of our mortgage holders have a deposit account with us. And within the first 6 months of opening variable rate mortgage customers now have 3 or more products, so already into there, health and strength is good, and we're comfortable with our position, as we said last quarter.

我要說的最後一件事是在大局的基礎上，從戰略上講，我們一直專注於交叉銷售存款的抵押貸款業務。在過去的 3 年裡，我們一直在逐年這樣做，我們 50% 的抵押貸款持有人在我們這裡有存款賬戶。在開放可變利率抵押貸款的前 6 個月內，客戶現在擁有 3 種或更多產品，所以已經進入那裡，健康和體力都很好，我們對我們的位置感到滿意，正如我們上個季度所說的那樣。

Just to add to that, and then Dan will have comments that will be consistent with mine as it relates to the credit performance. But just speaking in generally, we're not seeing any signs to stress across our portfolios, whether in retail or in our business banking segments right now. And we continue to monitor, as Dan mentioned, we've made significant investments in our ability to looking and see how our consumers are behaving and the type of performance they have both in retail and in business banking.

只是為了補充一點，然後 Dan 會發表與我的一致的評論，因為它與信用績效有關。但總的來說，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明我們的投資組合面臨壓力，無論是零售還是我們的商業銀行業務。正如 Dan 提到的，我們將繼續監控，我們已經對我們的能力進行了大量投資，以觀察和了解我們的消費者的行為方式以及他們在零售和商業銀行業務中的表現類型。

And we're not seeing any signs of liquidity pressures in our business banking book. And certainly, we're seeing the health of the Canadian consumer considerably stronger than they were pre-pandemic and holding. And so -- and from a credit perspective, we're quite comfortable with how these folks are performing right now.

而且我們在我們的商業銀行賬戶中沒有看到任何流動性壓力的跡象。當然，我們看到加拿大消費者的健康狀況比大流行前要好得多。因此——從信用的角度來看，我們對這些人現在的表現感到非常滿意。

And maybe just to add to that, I think it's also important as we look forward, employment or rather unemployment continues to be strong in Canada, and this is all this predeterminant of as we hit sort of bumpier times, but we're not seeing any changes to that. And certainly, we're also seeing wage increases consistently across our customer base as well, particularly for those customers that do participate in the variable rate mortgage program.

也許只是為了補充一點，我認為這也很重要，因為我們期待，加拿大的就業或更確切地說失業率繼續保持強勁，這是我們遇到的顛簸時期的所有這些先決條件，但我們沒有看到對此的任何更改。當然，我們也看到我們客戶群的工資持續增長，特別是那些參與可變利率抵押貸款計劃的客戶。

The following question is from Doug Young from Desjardin Capital Markets. .

以下問題來自 Desjardin Capital Markets 的 Doug Young。 .

I just wanted to go back to the Canadian banking NIM discussion, and I'm not sure if this is for Dan or for Raj, but there's an interplay between Corporate and Treasury and Canadian Bank. And maybe I can just ask it this way. If the other or the treasury costs in corporate were actually allocated out to the divisions are allocated back to banking. Would that NIM decline this quarter had been worse, no different or better? And can you talk a bit about that? .

我只想回到加拿大銀行業 NIM 的討論，我不確定這是針對 Dan 還是針對 Raj，但公司和財政部以及加拿大銀行之間存在相互作用。也許我可以這樣問。如果公司的其他或財務成本實際上分配給了部門，則分配回銀行業務。本季度 NIM 的下降會更糟，沒有什麼不同還是更好？你能談談嗎？ .

Yes, sure. I'll start, Doug, and see if I can help you with that. Transfer pricing is a factor and that -- So what I want you to know is that doesn't apply only to the Canadian bank, whatever is in the other segment. Transfer pricing generally from an asset repricing perspective will track to that.

是的，當然。我會開始的，道格，看看我能不能幫到你。轉讓定價是一個因素——所以我想讓你知道的是，這不僅適用於加拿大銀行，也適用於其他部門。從資產重新定價的角度來看，轉讓定價通常會追踪到這一點。

Deposit transfer pricing happens quicker, because very simply put, the deposit rate tracks what would be the wholesale funding rate from a transfer pricing perspective, while the asset transfer pricing will happen as assets reprice in the business line, and that's to ensure that the business line NIM is consistent. This is not inconsistent with what other banks do. So I wouldn't attribute it only to the Canadian bank. It's just a nuance when you have significant rate changes, it's up or down, how it manifests itself in our bank and the other segment. That's the comment I'd make.

存款轉移定價發生得更快，因為很簡單，存款利率從轉移定價的角度跟踪批發融資利率，而資產轉移定價將隨著資產在業務線中的重新定價而發生，這是為了確保業務line NIM 是一致的。這與其他銀行的做法並不矛盾。因此，我不會將其僅歸因於加拿大銀行。當你有顯著的利率變化時，它只是一個細微差別，它是上升還是下降，它如何在我們的銀行和其他部門表現出來。這就是我要發表的評論。

But I would suggest that you take it up to the higher level, just look at it from an all-bank perspective, net interest margin. And if you understand the reasons why it moved up or down in any particular quarter, I think generally will be in...

但是我建議你往上看，從全行的角度看，淨息差。而且，如果您了解它在任何特定季度上漲或下跌的原因，我認為通常會...

Okay. So the squeeze between the deposit costs went up faster than the asset repricing is actually being captured within the other segments. I think we've talked about this before. And I guess the way they really kind of just high level, just thinking about to track the all-bank, that's what you're suggesting?

好的。因此，存款成本之間的擠壓上升速度快於資產重新定價實際上在其他細分市場中的體現。我想我們之前已經談過這個了。而且我猜他們的方式真的只是高水平，只是想跟踪所有銀行，這就是你的建議？

Yes, that's what I'm saying, Doug. I think it's easier. And at the all-bank NIM compression is the simple way to think about it is our funding costs have grown quicker. And when assets cash, you shouldn't see that. But what happened in IB this quarter.

是的，這就是我要說的，道格。我認為這更容易。在所有銀行中，NIM 壓縮是一種簡單的思考方式，即我們的融資成本增長得更快。當資產變現時，你不應該看到這一點。但是這個季度IB發生了什麼。

Our Following question is from Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial.

我們的以下問題來自 National Bank Financial 的 Gabriel Dechaine。

Brian, best of luck in your retirement, not that you need it, but it's engaging with you in the past 9 years plus. My question is on Canadian banking margin (inaudible). We talked about asset yields or spreads that are tightening. I suspect that mortgages spread dynamic in that business, plus the impact of prepayment income probably of the client? And then just some question, it could be a quick yes or no answer. Is there any thought to or progress towards converting the RWAs in the International segment to the [AIRB] model.

布賴恩，祝你退休後好運，不是你需要它，而是它在過去 9 年多的時間裡與你互動。我的問題是關於加拿大銀行保證金（聽不清）。我們談到了收緊的資產收益率或利差。我懷疑抵押貸款在該業務中傳播動態，加上客戶可能的預付款收入的影響？然後只是一些問題，可以是快速的是或否的回答。在將國際部分的 RWA 轉換為 [AIRB] 模型方面是否有任何想法或取得進展。

I'll take the second one first, and then I'll start on the Canadian Bank NIM and I'm sure Dan will have more to say. No, we're not looking to move any of those portfolio any time soon. I think that's a short answer.

我會先講第二個，然後我會從加拿大銀行 NIM 開始，我相信 Dan 會有更多要說的。不，我們不打算很快轉移這些投資組合中的任何一個。我認為這是一個簡短的回答。

On the Canadian Banking NIM, what -- there's a couple of nuances in this quarter. So we called it out in the disclosure on the movement. One is the timing of prime SEDAR. And that's always going to be a factor not necessarily for Scotiabank, but for the other banks because the price of prime and then the SEDAR moves in advance, particularly in a rising environment. So that should normalize next quarter once prime catches up, which happened in the last week of October. Mortgage prepayment [us].

在加拿大銀行 NIM 上，這個季度有一些細微差別。所以我們在關於運動的披露中指出了這一點。一個是主要 SEDAR 的時機。這對 Scotiabank 來說不一定是一個因素，但對其他銀行來說總是一個因素，因為主要價格和 SEDAR 提前移動，特別是在上漲的環境中。因此，一旦 10 月的最後一周發生黃金時段，下個季度應該會正常化。抵押貸款預付款 [us]。

When rates go up, you expect to see less prepayment happening, and that's what we're seeing in the Canadian bank's net interest margin. And like Dan talked a little bit earlier, that margin will continue to modestly expand in line with how the assets start to reprice and which variant business mix changes will happen in the Canadian bank as the mortgage volume growth will slow down in '23 compared to what we saw in '22.

當利率上升時，您預計預付款會減少，這就是我們在加拿大銀行的淨息差中看到的情況。就像 Dan 之前說過的那樣，隨著資產開始重新定價的方式以及加拿大銀行將發生哪些不同的業務組合變化，利潤率將繼續適度擴大，因為抵押貸款量增長將在 23 年放緩我們在 22 年看到的。

Right. No quantification of prepayment (inaudible)?

正確的。沒有量化預付款（聽不清）？

We haven't quantified it before. I don't think it's substantial. But if you back end through the NIM that disclosure will probably be within the ballpark.

我們之前沒有量化它。我不認為這是實質性的。但是，如果您通過 NIM 進行後端處理，則該披露可能會在大概範圍內。

The following question is from Mario Mendonca from TD Securities.

以下問題來自道明證券的 Mario Mendonca。

So Raj, just get started first with going back to Ebrahim's opening question. He asked for whether the all-bank margin could only improve once rates decline. And the reason I want to go back to this is your disclosure indicates that the bank is positioned for falling rates. Higher rates lead to lower NII, lower rates lead to higher NII. So can we interpret from your disclosure that the all-bank margin can only improve once rates start to fall? Or is that too simple an interpretation?

那麼 Raj，首先回到 Ebrahim 的開場白問題。他詢問全銀行利潤率是否只有在利率下降時才能提高。我想回到這個問題的原因是你的披露表明銀行已做好利率下降的準備。較高的利率導致較低的 NII，較低的利率導致較高的 NII。那麼，我們能否從您的披露中解讀出，只有利率開始下降，全銀行利潤率才會提高？還是這種解釋太簡單了？

I'd look at it 2 ways. Directionally, you're right, Mario. Yes, we will benefit from falling rates. The balance sheet is positioned that way. One of the key factors which applies now is the pace of asset repricing. And depending on how fast that reprices, the benefit will be higher than what we show in that disclosure, but directionally, you're right based on this portion.

我會以兩種方式看待它。從方向上來說，你是對的，馬里奧。是的，我們將從利率下降中受益。資產負債表就是這樣定位的。現在適用的關鍵因素之一是資產重新定價的速度。根據重新定價的速度，收益將高於我們在該披露中顯示的收益，但從方向上講，您基於這一部分是正確的。

Okay. Different type of question then. This is probably the most frequently asked question through this last quarter. And it relates to debt service costs. We can all appreciate that unemployment is an important aspect of the Stage 1, Stage 2 performing loan provisions. But debt service costs and debt service ratios clearly are going materially higher. Could you talk about how that factors into your performing loan provisions and whether it's really just a matter of time before all the banks have to start building performing loan reserves for their mortgage book.

好的。那麼不同類型的問題。這可能是上個季度最常被問到的問題。它與償債成本有關。我們都可以理解，失業是第一階段、第二階段執行貸款準備金的一個重要方面。但償債成本和償債比率顯然正在大幅上升。你能談談這對你的貸款準備金有何影響，以及所有銀行必須開始為他們的抵押貸款賬簿建立貸款準備金是否真的只是時間問題。

Yes, I'll start. I'll -- happy to take that, it's Phil here. Thanks for the question. I go back to some of the comments I made in my prepared remarks and my comments from a few minutes ago. While TDSRs have been increasing just because of the cost of the mortgage, we're not seeing any sort of reciprocal stress.

是的，我會開始。我很樂意接受，我是 Phil。謝謝你的問題。我回顧一下我在準備好的發言中發表的一些評論以及幾分鐘前的評論。雖然 TDSR 只是因為抵押貸款的成本而增加，但我們沒有看到任何形式的相互壓力。

And as I said, most of our customers still are maintaining high levels of liquidity in their portfolio -- in their deposit accounts. So for example, our average customer is up 13% versus pre-pandemic in terms of the level of liquidity.

正如我所說，我們的大多數客戶在他們的投資組合中——在他們的存款賬戶中——仍然保持著高水平的流動性。因此，例如，就流動性水平而言，我們的平均客戶比大流行前增加了 13%。

FICO scores continue to improve up to 799 basis points, 800 plus, 840 with customers with HELOC. And so what we've seen actually is positive credit migration over the last quarter or so. And so as we're looking at performing loans and we look at our forward-looking indicators, there's some built in pessimistic scenarios for macroeconomic. But what we're seeing more importantly is the credit change in quality is actually a tailwind for us from a performing loan perspective. And I think that's important to note as you're looking forward. So I would be less focused on TDSRs, and I'd be more focused on health for the consumer quality of the portfolio, sort of the shift in the dynamic within the macroeconomic that we're seeing today, which is positive.

使用 HELOC 的客戶的 FICO 分數繼續提高到 799 個基點、800 加、840。因此，我們實際上看到的是上個季度左右的積極信貸遷移。因此，當我們查看執行貸款並查看我們的前瞻性指標時，宏觀經濟存在一些悲觀情景。但我們看到更重要的是，從貸款績效的角度來看，信貸質量的變化實際上對我們有利。我認為在您期待的時候注意這一點很重要。因此，我不會那麼關注 TDSR，而是更關注投資組合的消費者質量的健康狀況，這是我們今天看到的宏觀經濟動態的轉變，這是積極的。

Okay. Final question then. Did the bank talk about how you managed to get securities gains in the quarter in a rising rate environment. I was a little surprised because over the last few quarters, we haven't seen any. And then this quarter, a nice meeting number. Could you help me think through that? .

好的。最後一個問題。銀行是否談到在利率上升的環境下，你們如何在本季度獲得證券收益？我有點驚訝，因為在過去的幾個季度裡，我們沒有看到任何東西。然後這個季度，一個不錯的會議號碼。你能幫我想清楚嗎？ .

Sure, Mario. As you know, investment gains will be lumpy, right, in any quarter and in any year. The first 3 quarters of this year, I think we had $1 million, if I remember my numbers right.

當然，馬里奧。如您所知，投資收益在任何一個季度和任何一年都是起伏不定的，對吧。今年前三個季度，如果我沒有記錯的話，我想我們有 100 萬美元。

We didn't have any opportunities, but we continue to roll those because these are high-quality liquid assets. We hold it for liquidity purposes. And depending on when we invest and when we think it has reached economic value to the maximum, and we don't think that it's going to raise in value, so to speak, because of interest rate changes, we monetize it.

我們沒有任何機會，但我們繼續推出這些機會，因為這些是高質量的流動資產。我們持有它是為了流動性目的。並且取決於我們何時投資以及何時我們認為它已達到最大經濟價值，並且我們認為它不會升值，可以說，由於利率變化，我們將其貨幣化。

We just had the opportunity to do it in some of the securities, debt securities. This quarter, that's what you're seeing. Like I said, it will be lumpy. It all depends on the time at which we put on these securities and how much value it has gain based on rising rates, falling rates, all these are factors. It's a large portfolio.

我們剛剛有機會在一些證券、債務證券中做這件事。本季度，這就是您所看到的。就像我說的，它會是塊狀的。這完全取決於我們購買這些證券的時間，以及它在利率上升、利率下降的基礎上獲得了多少價值，所有這些都是因素。這是一個很大的投資組合。

Our following question is from Scott Chan from Canaccord Genuity.

我們的以下問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Scott Chan。

I'll kind of switch to capital (inaudible) banking, more specifically on the business banking side. Revenues went up a lot year-over-year, driven by corporate loans, both on a quarter-to-quarter and year-over-year basis. So my question is like what driving that robust growth in this segment if you could (inaudible) it perhaps a little bit of an outlook. And if that did contribute to the higher personnel costs in the quarter?

我將轉向資本（聽不清）銀行業務，更具體地說是在商業銀行業務方面。在公司貸款的推動下，收入同比大幅增長，無論是環比還是同比。所以我的問題是，是什麼推動了這一領域的強勁增長，如果你能（聽不清）它可能有點前景。如果這確實導致了本季度更高的人員成本？

Great. Thanks for the question, Scott. So there's a few things in that question. First thing I'd say is we're very focused on our existing clients and adding in new clients. And that's been core to that loan growth that you're seeing in the business.

偉大的。謝謝你的問題，斯科特。所以這個問題中有幾件事。我要說的第一件事是我們非常關注現有客戶並增加新客戶。這是您在業務中看到的貸款增長的核心。

A big part of that loan growth is happening in the U.S. where we're focused on the Americas strategy. And I think that's important to note because we've talked about that several times.

貸款增長的很大一部分發生在美國，我們專注於美洲戰略。我認為這一點很重要，因為我們已經多次討論過這個問題。

Q3 was a very quiet DCM quarter. Not a lot of activity happening. So we saw a lot of clients come into banks for its facilities. We're going to see that monetize as we move into 2023. So we're quite confident, we're being there for our clients. We're putting out balance sheet, and we're doing it on both sides. The deposit line continues to grow, and we have an LDR in the business below 1, which is positive, I'd say.

第三季度是一個非常安靜的 DCM 季度。沒有太多活動發生。所以我們看到很多客戶為了它的設施來到銀行。我們將在進入 2023 年時看到它的貨幣化。所以我們非常有信心，我們會為我們的客戶服務。我們正在推出資產負債表，我們正在兩邊做。存款額度繼續增長，我們的業務存貸比低於 1，這是積極的，我想說。

In terms of performance costs in the quarter, Q3 was an air pocket for the capital markets industry. And what we saw happen was a step back in the performance cost for the year. That stepped up ahead when we delivered what we felt was a pretty solid Q4. Does that help you answer your question, Scott?

就本季度的績效成本而言，Q3 是資本市場行業的空穴來風。我們看到的是當年的性能成本下降了一步。當我們交付了我們認為非常可靠的第四季度時，這就向前邁進了一步。這對你回答問題有幫助嗎，斯科特？

Yes. That's very helpful.

是的。這很有幫助。

Our following question is from Darko Mihelic from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的以下問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Darko Mihelic。

And Brian also, best of luck in retirement. I just wanted to dig, Dan, a little bit deeper into the mortgage question. You mentioned in your remarks that or in response to 1 question that there was a shift from variable to fixed.

還有布賴恩，祝他退休後好運。丹，我只是想更深入地了解抵押貸款問題。您在評論中提到或在回答 1 個問題時提到了從可變到固定的轉變。

But when I look at Slide 35, I don't see a change quarter-over-quarter. And there was a lot of rate increases that just recently happened. So my question on the portfolio for mortgage is really given to a couple of different areas. First and foremost, if there is a shift happening from the existing variable rate mortgage portfolio to fixed. Could it be that originations are heavily variable rate mortgage related, and therefore, you don't see an overall shift in the portfolio? Are you in fact suggesting to customers to continue to go down the variable rate mortgage as a preferred vehicle, especially since you think rates are going down?

但是當我查看幻燈片 35 時，我沒有看到季度環比的變化。最近發生了很多加息。所以我關於抵押貸款組合的問題實際上是針對幾個不同的領域。首先，如果從現有的可變利率抵押貸款組合轉變為固定利率抵押貸款組合。會不會是起源與可變利率抵押貸款密切相關，因此，您看不到投資組合的整體轉變？實際上，您是否建議客戶繼續降低可變利率抵押貸款作為首選工具，尤其是在您認為利率正在下降的情況下？

And lastly, with respect to the average loan to value, for the whole portfolio, I see it rising a little bit. You have a very heavy concentration in Ontario, where house prices are falling. So maybe you can speak to what you're seeing there on loan to values of the portfolio and where you think that's headed over the next couple of quarters, please?

最後，關於平均貸款價值，對於整個投資組合，我看到它略有上升。您非常關注安大略省，那裡的房價正在下跌。所以，也許你可以談談你在那裡看到的借貸投資組合的價值，以及你認為未來幾個季度的發展方向，好嗎？

Sure, Darko. There's a lot there, and I am sensitive I think RBC's called at 9. So I'll make this brief and we can do a follow-up in detail if you like.

當然，達科。那裡有很多，我很敏感，我認為 RBC 會在 9 點打電話。所以我會做簡短的介紹，如果您願意，我們可以進行詳細的跟進。

My comments around shift to fix was new business flows during the fourth quarter as opposed to I think the slide you're referencing is a photograph of the stock in the portfolio. We are not on the front foot with regards to devising customers strongly into or out of variable effects. We work with the customer based on their unique situation.

我對轉向修復的評論是第四季度的新業務流動，而不是我認為你所引用的幻燈片是投資組合中股票的照片。在強烈地設計客戶進入或退出可變效應方面，我們並不處於領先地位。我們根據客戶的獨特情況與客戶合作。

Often, you're seeing renewals come forward. And therefore, I think our view is balanced there, whether it's by channel or by turn. So the movement out of variable into fix did begin to happen in Q3 that continued in Q4 as expected. In terms of outlook on LTVS, I wouldn't say we're over-indexed in Ontario necessarily. I would say we're slightly under-indexed in Quebec versus the rest of the marketplace.

通常，您會看到續訂。因此，我認為我們的觀點在那裡是平衡的，無論是通過渠道還是輪流。因此，從變量到固定的移動確實在第三季度開始發生，並按預期在第四季度繼續進行。就 LTVS 的前景而言，我不會說我們在安大略省的指數過高。我會說，與其他市場相比，我們在魁北克的指數略低。

Clearly, as house prices have deflated over the last number of months, the emphasis on loan to value at origination will be maintained at, call it, Phil Thomas' credit risk standard. As the book comes in for renewal, where we are concerned about any consumer situation, we will reappraise the value of the home and decide whether we want to renew on that basis.

顯然，隨著房價在過去幾個月內下跌，對貸款初始價值的重視將維持在菲爾托馬斯的信用風險標准上。當這本書要續訂時，如果我們擔心任何消費者情況，我們將重新評估房屋的價值，並在此基礎上決定是否要續訂。

We are not leaning into high LTV, high TDSR, long amortization. Our credit situations in the mortgage book, we believe very strongly that immigration, employment, wages, shortage of housing will be constructed for the housing market once we get through this price adjustment period. And as margins return as the prime SEDAR compression dissipates.

我們不傾向於高 LTV、高 TDSR、長期攤銷。我們在抵押貸款簿中的信用情況，我們非常堅信，一旦我們度過這個價格調整期，移民、就業、工資、住房短缺將為房地產市場構建。隨著主要 SEDAR 壓縮消散，利潤率回歸。

Our following question is from Sohrab Movahedi from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的以下問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Sohrab Movahedi。

And Brian, congratulations on a very illustrious career. I have just maybe a quick clarifying question. I think you've talked about normalization, I'll call it, on the PCL into the mid-30s. Can you just talk a little bit more detail on that? What sort of an unemployment rate does that assume? Where is that performing versus nonperforming? And how does it kind of -- which line items or business segments or geographies would you say you're kind of, I guess, over earning in right now on that line? So would just be adding to performance in mortgages in Canada, or is it nonperformers and business lending in LatAm? Or just if you could give me a little bit more color as to how we get to that new clarities and what sort of assumptions there will be?

Brian，祝賀他擁有非常傑出的職業生涯。我可能有一個快速澄清的問題。我想你已經談到了 PCL 到 30 年代中期的正常化，我稱之為正常化。你能談談更多細節嗎？這假設了什麼樣的失業率？表現與不良表現在哪裡？它是怎樣的——我猜你會說你現在在哪些項目或業務部門或地區賺得太多了？那麼只是增加加拿大抵押貸款的表現，還是拉美的不良貸款和商業貸款？或者，如果你能給我更多關於我們如何獲得新的清晰度以及將會有什麼樣的假設的顏色？

Sure. Not a quick question, then I'm happy to maybe answer it and you and I can maybe spend a little bit of time together offline. But I'd go back to -- we -- if you look at where we were a year plus ago, this bank has done a tremendous amount of work to derisk our portfolios. And so as we head into '23, a new normalized run rate is sort of in that mid-30s basis point range.

當然。不是一個快速的問題，那麼我很樂意回答這個問題，你和我也許可以在線下花點時間在一起。但我會回到——我們——如果你看看我們一年多前的情況，這家銀行已經做了大量工作來降低我們投資組合的風險。因此，當我們進入 23 世紀時，新的標準化運行率有點在 30 年代中期的基點範圍內。

I would say the mid-9s basis point range for International Banking. And so we continue to grow our mortgage book in international, continue to put on more secured lending. Our focus has primarily been on affluence for the higher-end segment. And as I mentioned in my remarks, 96% of our originations and IP are sort of that higher credit quality segment now. And so we're really -- as we normalize, it's sort of a new normal incentive. The portfolios have really shifted.

我會說國際銀行業的 9s 基點範圍。因此，我們繼續擴大國際抵押貸款業務，繼續提供更多有擔保的貸款。我們的重點主要放在高端市場的富裕程度。正如我在發言中提到的，我們 96% 的來源和 IP 現在都屬於信用質量較高的部分。所以我們真的——正如我們規範化的那樣，這是一種新的正常激勵。投資組合確實發生了變化。

Again, higher -- big focus on high investment grade at corporate and commercial lending. And so as I look out into next year, I'm confident in the guidance. And we'll continue to work very, very closely with Dan and (inaudible) and Jake and James and others to make sure that we have that focus on higher quality credit moving into the year.

同樣，更高——重點關注公司和商業貸款的高投資等級。因此，當我展望明年時，我對指導充滿信心。我們將繼續與 Dan 和（聽不清）、Jake 和 James 以及其他人非常、非常密切地合作，以確保我們將重點放在進入今年的更高質量的信貸上。

I would also say that this bank has made a significant amount of investment in the collections. And we have -- and we've built collections hubs. We've invested in technology. We've invested in analytics, and so we're doing a lot of preemptive phone calls to customers who we may see had a bit of stress. And so both from a quality of the process that we have in place to help our customers and from a collections perspective, we're feeling pretty good as we go out to next year.

我還要說的是，這家銀行對收藏品進行了大量投資。我們已經 - 我們已經建立了收集中心。我們投資於技術。我們在分析方面進行了投資，因此我們會先發製人地打電話給我們可能會感到有些壓力的客戶。因此，無論是從我們為客戶提供幫助的流程質量，還是從收藏的角度來看，我們對明年的表現都感覺非常好。

What's the unemployment rate in Canada behind the 30 basis point?

30個基點背後的加拿大失業率是多少？

Yes, it would be. Yes, obviously, we stress test our portfolios on a regular basis every day. And we have a number of stress scenarios for unemployment that we put into the stress scenarios. And I'm happy to maybe spend a little bit of time with you offline, we can go into those. .

是的，會的。是的，顯然，我們每天定期對我們的投資組合進行壓力測試。我們有許多失業壓力情景，我們將其放入壓力情景中。我很高興能在線下花點時間和你在一起，我們可以談談這些。 .

Okay. But the mid-30 basis points, you don't -- is it not based on an unemployment rate?

好的。但是 30 個基點中間，你不知道——它不是基於失業率嗎？

It would be based on a whole bunch of different factors, including unemployment, our outlook, how we're thinking about our portfolios, what is performing, what are we looking at for nonperforming, where are we focused on in terms of growth of assets.

這將基於一系列不同的因素，包括失業率、我們的前景、我們如何看待我們的投資組合、表現如何、我們對不良表現的關注、我們在資產增長方面的關注點.

It's all the time we have for questions. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Porter.

這是我們提問的全部時間。我現在想把會議轉回給波特先生。

Thank you very much. I wanted to extend my sincere thanks to the analyst community for your ongoing coverage of the bank and to our investors for your continued support of the bank.

非常感謝。我想衷心感謝分析師社區對銀行的持續報導，並感謝我們的投資者對銀行的持續支持。

I'm extremely proud of our team of over 90,000 Scotiabankers for their tireless efforts to put our customers first. And I have every confidence that Scott Thomson and the entire leadership team will continue to build on the strong foundation we have established and the many successes we had achieved over the past decade. Together, we have built an enduring resilient institution that continues to champion Canadian values around the world. It has been the privilege of my lifetime to serve as CEO of the storied institution. And I have every confidence that the bank's best days are yet to come.

我為我們超過 90,000 名豐業銀行員工的團隊感到非常自豪，他們不懈努力將我們的客戶放在首位。我完全相信 Scott Thomson 和整個領導團隊將繼續在我們已經建立的堅實基礎和我們在過去十年中取得的許多成功的基礎上再接再厲。我們共同建立了一個持久的、有彈性的機構，繼續在世界各地捍衛加拿大的價值觀。擔任這家傳奇機構的首席執行官是我一生的榮幸。我完全相信銀行的好日子還在後頭。

And I wanted to wish you and yours all the very best for the upcoming holiday season and beyond. Thank you very much.

我想祝愿您和您的家人在即將到來的假期及以後一切順利。非常感謝。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝你。會議現已結束。請此時斷開您的線路，我們感謝您的參與。