Bank of Montreal (BMO) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the BMO Financial Group's Q2 2025 earnings release and conference call for May 28, 2025. Your host for today is Christine Viau. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 BMO 金融集團 2025 年 5 月 28 日的 2025 年第二季財報發布和電話會議。今天的主持人是 Christine Viau。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning. We will begin today's call with remarks from Darryl White, BMO's CEO, followed by Tayfun Tuzun, our Chief Financial Officer; and Piyush Agrawal, our Chief Risk Officer. Also present to take questions this morning are Ernie Johannson, Head of BMO North American Personal and Business Banking; Nadim Hirji, Head of BMO Commercial Banking; Alan Tannenbaum, Head of BMO Capital Markets; Deland Kamanga, Head of BMO Wealth Management; and Darrel Hackett, BMO US CEO.

謝謝，早安。今天的電話會議將以 BMO 執行長 Darryl White 的演講開始，隨後是我們的財務長 Tayfun Tuzun 和我們的首席風險長 Piyush Agrawal。今天早上出席回答提問的還有 BMO 北美個人和商業銀行業務主管 Ernie Johannson、BMO 商業銀行業務主管 Nadim Hirji、BMO 資本市場主管 Alan Tannenbaum、BMO 財富管理主管 Deland Kamanga 和 BMO 美國首席執行官 Darrel Hackett。

I would ask you to limit to one question during the Q&A to give everyone a chance to participate.

我希望您在問答過程中將問題限制為一個，以便每個人都有機會參與。

As noted on slide 2, forward-looking statements may be made during this call, which involve assumptions that have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from these statements.

如投影片 2 所述，本次電話會議中可能會做出前瞻性陳述，其中涉及具有固有風險和不確定性的假設。實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。

I would also remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results. Management measures performance on a reported and adjusted basis and considers both useful in assessing underlying business performance. Darryl and Tayfun will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks, unless otherwise noted as reported.

我還要提醒聽眾，該銀行使用非公認會計準則財務指標來得出調整後的結果。管理階層根據報告和調整後的基礎來衡量績效，並認為兩者對於評估基礎業務績效都有用。除非另有說明，否則 Darryl 和 Tayfun 將在他們的評論中參考調整後的結果。

And I will now turn the call over to Darryl.

現在我將把電話轉給 Darryl。

Thank you, Christine, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，克里斯汀，大家早安。

Today, we delivered another good quarter, supporting year-to-date momentum across key performance metrics. We had good revenue and PPPT growth with strength in each of our diversified businesses. We're actively managing for our risks and uncertainties in the current environment and executing against a consistent strategy to deliver continued positive operating leverage and ROE improvement.

今天，我們又取得了一個良好的季度業績，支持了年初至今各項關鍵績效指標的良好勢頭。我們的營收和 PPPT 成長良好，各項多元化業務實力雄厚。我們正在積極管理當前環境下的風險和不確定性，並執行一致的策略，以持續實現積極的經營槓桿和 ROE 改善。

In the quarter, adjusted net income and earnings per share increased 1% from last year to $2 billion and $2.62, respectively, with PPPT growth of 12%. Impaired provisions continued to moderate as expected, and we bolstered our performing allowance. Over the last three quarters, we've added more than $850 million to our performing provision, giving us appropriate coverage for the environment and reflecting our disciplined and proactive approach to risk management.

本季度，調整後淨收入和每股盈餘較去年同期分別成長 1% 至 20 億美元和 2.62 美元，PPPT 成長 12%。減損準備金繼續如預期般減少，我們增加了履約準備金。在過去三個季度中，我們增加了超過 8.5 億美元的履約準備金，為環境提供了適當的保障，並體現了我們嚴謹、積極主動的風險管理方法。

Our capital position remains robust with a CET1 ratio of 13.5%, as we continue to support clients, invest for growth, and return capital to shareholders, including through share buybacks and dividend increases. We've now completed 50% of the NCIB program. And today, we announced an increase in our dividend of $0.04, up 5% from last year.

我們的資本狀況依然穩健，CET1 比率為 13.5%，我們將繼續支持客戶、投資成長並向股東返還資本，包括透過股票回購和增加股利。我們現在已經完成了 50% 的 NCIB 計劃。今天，我們宣布將股息增加 0.04 美元，比去年增加 5%。

For the first half of the year, EPS grew 10%, driven by year-to-date revenue growth of 13%. Pre-provision pre-tax earnings of $7.8 billion were up 22%, with all bank operating leverage of 5.7%, having met our commitment to positive operating leverage for five consecutive quarters.

今年上半年，每股盈餘成長 10%，受年初至今營收成長 13% 的推動。撥備前稅前利潤 78 億美元，成長 22%，全行營運槓桿率為 5.7%，連續五個季度履行了對正經營槓桿的承諾。

ROE improved to 10.6% year to date. Rebuilding return on equity is our number one imperative, and we're executing against our plan. Tayfun, today, will provide more details on our progress in his remarks.

今年迄今，ROE 已升至 10.6%。重建股本回報率是我們的首要任務，我們正在按照計劃執行。泰豐今天將在演講中詳細介紹我們的進展。

Turning to the businesses. Each of our operating groups delivered solid results and PPPT growth as we continue to focus on enhanced customer experience, deeper one client relationships and trusted advice.

轉向企業。隨著我們繼續專注於提升客戶體驗、加深客戶關係和值得信賴的建議，我們的每個營運團隊都取得了穩健的業績和 PPPT 成長。

In Canadian Personal Banking, we continue to see good customer growth and deeper engagement through the first half of the year, driven by product and digital innovation. For example, we've added over 10,000 new VIPorter loyalty cards in the first six weeks since the launch of our partnership with Canada's fastest-growing airline.

在加拿大個人銀行業務方面，在產品和數位創新的推動下，我們在上半年繼續看到良好的客戶成長和更深入的參與。例如，自從與加拿大發展最快的航空公司建立合作關係以來，我們在前六週內增加了超過 10,000 張新的 VIPorter 會員卡。

Our differentiated Savings Amplifier Account recently surpassed $10 billion in deposits, over half representing new customers to BMO. Our award-winning digital offerings are making it easier for customers to bank with us, including access to detailed merchant data for debit and credit card purchases, the ability to convert transactions to installments while also implementing enhanced security features.

我們差異化的儲蓄放大帳戶的存款額最近超過了 100 億美元，其中超過一半是 BMO 的新客戶。我們屢獲殊榮的數位產品使客戶能夠更輕鬆地與我們進行銀行業務，包括訪問借記卡和信用卡購買的詳細商家資料、將交易轉換為分期付款的能力以及實施增強的安全功能。

In US P&C, we continue to have good momentum in core customer acquisition across our markets, including 7% year-over-year growth in checking account acquisition in our West markets where branch productivity and digital engagement continues to improve. We continue to invest in core markets, including in Chicago and the Midwest where we're market leaders, and in our expanded West markets where we're growing regional scale. California's economy is now the fourth largest in the world and growing at a faster rate than the US overall. We're well positioned to capture opportunities to grow share in this attractive market.

在美國財產和意外傷害保險領域，我們在各個市場的核心客戶獲取方面繼續保持良好勢頭，其中西部市場的支票帳戶獲取量同比增長 7%，分支機構的生產力和數位化參與度持續提高。我們繼續投資核心市場，包括我們作為市場領導者的芝加哥和中西部市場，以及我們正在擴大區域規模的西部市場。加州經濟目前是世界第四大經濟體，且成長速度高於美國整體經濟。我們已做好準備，抓住機遇，在這個極具吸引力的市場中擴大份額。

In Commercial Banking, business activity and loan demand in both countries is reflecting the impact from trade uncertainty, and businesses are being cautious around the deployment of capital. At the same time, our ability to attract, retain, and deepen one client relationships and diversify our revenue streams towards fee-generating income is reflected in the fact that more than 90% of our commercial borrowers choose us for additional services.

在商業銀行領域，兩國的商業活動和貸款需求都反映了貿易不確定性的影響，企業對資本配置持謹慎態度。同時，超過 90% 的商業借款人選擇我們提供附加服務，這反映出我們能夠吸引、保留和深化客戶關係，並將收入來源多元化，轉向收費收入。

At BMO, we take pride in delivering best-in-class treasury and payment solutions. Across corporate, commercial, and small business clients, TPS provides award-winning product solutions, seamless and leading cross-border capabilities, and trusted advice that powers efficiency and growth for our clients. TPS is a significant contributor to BMO's revenue, growing 20% year over year. It fuels core commercial -- core deposit growth and represents an important fee expansion initiative to drive higher ROE.

在 BMO，我們以提供一流的財務和支付解決方案而自豪。TPS 為企業、商業和小型企業客戶提供屢獲殊榮的產品解決方案、無縫且領先的跨境能力以及值得信賴的建議，從而為我們的客戶提高效率和成長。TPS 是 BMO 營收的重要貢獻者，年增 20%。它推動了核心商業——核心存款的成長，並代表了推動更高 ROE 的重要費用擴張舉措。

BMO Wealth Management continues to perform well with a return on equity of 29% year to date, up from 24% a year ago. Growing this business is another key element in our overall ROE rebuild strategy. Net new asset growth this quarter was the second highest on record, including a strong contribution from the US and market share gains in Canadian mutual funds, reflecting strategic investments we've made in these businesses.

BMO 財富管理持續表現良好，今年迄今的股本回報率為 29%，高於一年前的 24%。發展這項業務是我們整體 ROE 重建策略的另一個關鍵要素。本季淨新資產成長率創歷史第二高，其中包括來自美國的強勁貢獻和加拿大共同基金的市佔率成長，反映了我們對這些業務的策略投資。

We continue to innovate and expand our product offering with new solutions such as BMO's Canadian Depositary Receipt lineup, enabling Canadian investors to gain exposure to international companies and enhance their portfolio diversification. We continue to add to our leading ETF offerings and ranked first in ETF flows for the quarter, building on our number two position in the market.

我們繼續創新並擴大我們的產品範圍，推出新的解決方案，例如 BMO 的加拿大存託憑證系列，使加拿大投資者能夠接觸國際公司並增強其投資組合多樣化。我們繼續增加領先的 ETF 產品，並在本季度的 ETF 流量中排名第一，鞏固了我們在市場上排名第二的地位。

The launch of the new BMO-LINK Workplace Savings Platform gives employers a one-stop digital solution to help their employees achieve their savings and retirement goals, a first among Canadian financial institutions. Our commitment to meeting the unique needs of private wealth clients was recognized at the 2025 Euromoney Global Private Banking Awards, where BMO was named Canada's Best Private Bank for ultra-high-net-worth clients and for philanthropic advisory services.

全新BMO-LINK職場儲蓄平台的推出，為雇主提供了一站式數位解決方案，幫助員工實現儲蓄和退休目標，這在加拿大金融機構中尚屬首創。我們致力於滿足私人財富客戶的獨特需求，這在 2025 年《歐洲貨幣》全球私人銀行大獎評選中得到了認可，BMO 在該獎項中被評為加拿大最佳超高淨值客戶和慈善諮詢服務私人銀行。

Moving to BMO Capital Markets. PPPT of $684 million was above our guidance. We had strong trading revenue led by a record quarter in commodities and continued strength in securitization. Our leadership and strength as a trusted adviser drove resilient performance in key sectors and products, notably global metals and mining and Canadian M&A. Our Capital Markets team is also leading the way in leveraging data-driven AI insights and tools to enable our bankers and traders, enhance client interactions and relationships, and provide unmatched value while supporting client growth.

轉向 BMO 資本市場。6.84 億美元的 PPPT 高於我們的預期。我們的交易收入強勁，這得益於大宗商品季度創紀錄以及證券化業務持續強勁增長。我們作為值得信賴的顧問的領導力和實力推動了關鍵產業和產品的強勁表現，尤其是全球金屬和採礦業以及加拿大的併購。我們的資本市場團隊還在利用數據驅動的人工智慧洞察力和工具方面處於領先地位，為我們的銀行家和交易員提供支持，增強客戶互動和關係，並在支持客戶成長的同時提供無與倫比的價值。

The economic backdrop in North America continues to be challenged by the uncertain environment, and GDP growth is now expected to slow to 1% in Canada and 1.3% in the US in 2025. In Canada, the recent outcome of the federal election is a renewed government with an aggressive economic growth agenda. We've seen promising early results by the federal and several provincial governments in support of eliminating barriers to interprovincial trade. We encourage a positive resolution in support of a stronger overall Canadian economy.

北美經濟背景持續受到不確定環境的挑戰，預計到 2025 年加拿大的 GDP 成長率將放緩至 1%，美國的 GDP 成長率將放緩至 1.3%。在加拿大，聯邦選舉的最新結果是新政府推出了積極的經濟成長議程。我們已經看到聯邦政府和幾個省政府在支持消除省際貿易壁壘方面取得了令人鼓舞的早期成果。我們鼓勵採取積極的決議，以支持加拿大整體經濟更加強勁。

Finally, as more plans are put into motion for infrastructure investment to boost economic capacity and Canadian productivity, our teams are here to help governments, companies, small businesses, and families with access to financial services and advice to fuel that growth and continue to strengthen the communities we serve. While macro uncertainties drive levels of customer and market activity that are lower than expected at the beginning of this year, we're focused on continuing to execute on our strategic priorities and strong risk management practices to enhance shareholder returns.

最後，隨著越來越多的基礎設施投資計畫實施，以提高經濟能力和加拿大的生產力，我們的團隊將幫助政府、公司、小型企業和家庭獲得金融服務和建議，以推動經濟成長並繼續加強我們服務的社區。儘管宏觀不確定性導致客戶和市場活動水平低於今年年初的預期，但我們仍專注於繼續執行我們的策略重點和強有力的風險管理實踐，以提高股東回報。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Tayfun.

接下來，我將把發言權交給 Tayfun。

Thank you, Darryl. Good morning, and thank you for joining us.

謝謝你，達裡爾。早安，感謝您加入我們。

My comments will start on slide 8. Second-quarter reported EPS was $2.50, and net income was $2 billion. Adjusting items are shown on slide 39. The remainder of my comments will focus on adjusted results. Adjusted EPS was $2.62, up from $2.59 last year, and net income was $2 billion, up 1% as strong PPPT growth of 12% was offset by higher performing PCLs, as well as a loss of $51 million on the sale of a US non-relationship credit card portfolio related to our balance sheet optimization strategy to achieve the ROE targets.

我的評論將從第 8 張投影片開始。第二季報告的每股收益為 2.50 美元，淨收入為 20 億美元。調整項目顯示在投影片 39 上。我的其餘評論將集中在調整後的結果。調整後的每股收益為 2.62 美元，高於去年的 2.59 美元，淨收入為 20 億美元，增長 1%，因為 PPPT 強勁增長 12% 被業績更高的 PCL 所抵消，以及出售美國非關係信用卡組合表造成的 5,100 萬美元損失，這與我們為實施 ROE 資產優化目標而的資產負債表有關。

Revenues increased 9% with good growth across all our businesses, NIM expansion, and strong trading and wealth revenue. This was partially offset by markdowns in capital markets reflecting market conditions. Expenses grew 6%, and we delivered positive operating leverage of 2.7%. Total PCLs increased $349 million from the prior year and $43 million from last quarter. Piyush will speak to this in his remarks.

由於所有業務均實現良好成長、淨利差擴大以及交易和財富收入強勁，收入成長了 9%。但這變化被反映市場狀況的資本市場降價部分抵消。支出成長了 6%，我們的經營槓桿率達到了 2.7%。PCL 總額比上年增加 3.49 億美元，比上一季增加 4,300 萬美元。皮尤什將在他的演講中談到這一點。

Moving to slide 9. Over the last two quarters, we shared with you our medium-term ROE target for BMO at 15% and 12% for US P&C and the priorities to achieve them. Over the course of the first half of fiscal 2025, we have been executing against our action plans that have resulted in improvements in our year-to-date ROE. I would note that excluding performing PCLs in the first half of the year, which have been elevated, year-to-date ROE would be approaching 11.5%.

移至幻燈片 9。在過去兩個季度中，我們與您分享了 BMO 的中期 ROE 目標（15%）和美國 P&C 的中期 ROE 目標（12%）以及實現這些目標的優先事項。在 2025 財年上半年，我們一直在執行行動計劃，這已導致年初至今的 ROE 有所改善。我要指出的是，如果不包括上半年業績表現優異且業績有所提升的 PCL，今年迄今的 ROE 將接近 11.5%。

In line with our commitment, focused expense management has resulted in year-to-date positive operating leverage of 5.7%. Impaired PCLs have improved as expected since the fourth quarter, and while the timing of further normalization will depend on the macro environment, it remains a key driver of ROE improvement over time.

按照我們的承諾，重點費用管理已使年初至今的營運槓桿達到 5.7%。自第四季以來，受損的個人負債已如預期般改善，雖然進一步正常化的時間將取決於宏觀環境，但它仍然是 ROE 長期改善的關鍵驅動力。

We have made early progress on balance sheet optimization initiatives on both sides of the balance sheet. As mentioned earlier, in the US, we executed the sale of a non-relationship credit card portfolio to support the recycling of capital to higher return opportunities and exited a franchise loan portfolio that did not meet our return expectations with minimal impact on current net income.

我們在資產負債表兩側的優化措施方面都取得了初步進展。如前所述，在美國，我們執行了非關係信用卡組合的出售，以支持將資本回收到更高的回報機會，並退出了未達到我們回報預期的特許經營貸款組合，對當前淨收入的影響微乎其微。

On the deposit side, given our current strong balance sheet liquidity, we have been executing a more disciplined deposit pricing strategy and made progress in our deposit mix improvements with reductions in higher-cost funding. Overall, we are pleased with the year-to-date ROE improvements, and we'll continue to report against these and other initiatives.

在存款方面，鑑於我們目前強勁的資產負債表流動性，我們一直在執行更嚴格的存款定價策略，並透過減少高成本融資在存款組合改善方面取得了進展。總體而言，我們對今年迄今的 ROE 改善感到滿意，我們將繼續針對這些舉措和其他舉措進行報告。

Moving to slide 10. Average loans grew 3% year over year on a constant currency basis, driven by good growth in residential mortgages and commercial loans in Canadian P&C. Sequentially, loans were down 1%, primarily from lower business and government balances in US P&C and Capital Markets.

移至投影片 10。受加拿大財產和意外保險業住宅抵押貸款和商業貸款良好增長的推動，平均貸款按固定匯率計算同比增長 3%。貸款環比下降 1%，主要原因是美國財產和意外傷害保險以及資本市場中的企業和政府餘額減少。

Customer deposit balances were up 5% from last year, excluding the impact of the stronger US dollar, with growth across all businesses. Sequentially, balances were down 1%, offset by decreases in term deposits. And in the US, deposit optimization activity and disciplined pricing resulted in lower CDs and non-core customer deposits.

剔除美元走強的影響，客戶存款餘額較去年同期成長 5%，所有業務均成長。與上一季相比，餘額下降了 1%，但定期存款的減少抵消了這一下降。在美國，存款優化活動和嚴格的定價導致存單和非核心客戶存款減少。

Macro uncertainties in both countries have kept demand muted across our client segments so far this year. We expect these conditions to begin to normalize as we get more clarity on the changes to the global tariff regime. In the meantime, we will continue to leverage our balance sheet liquidity to further optimize our funding profile in line with our ROE targets.

今年到目前為止，這兩個國家的宏觀不確定性導致我們客戶群的需求低迷。我們預計，隨著我們對全球關稅制度變化的了解越來越清楚，這些情況將開始正常化。同時，我們將繼續利用資產負債表流動性，進一步優化我們的資金狀況，以實現 ROE 目標。

Turning to slide 11. On an ex-trading basis, net interest income was up 11% from the prior year and down 2% sequentially due to the impact of fewer days in the quarter. Compared with last quarter, NIM ex-trading was up 4 basis points, benefiting from the rolling reinvestments at higher rates and disciplined deposit pricing, as well as lower low-yielding assets in Capital Markets and Corporate Services.

翻到第 11 張投影片。以交易日計算，淨利息收入較上年增加 11%，但受本季營業天數減少的影響，季減 2%。與上一季相比，交易外淨利差上升了 4 個基點，這得益於更高利率的滾動再投資和嚴格的存款定價，以及資本市場和企業服務領域低收益資產的減少。

In Canadian P&C, NIM increased 4 basis points, reflecting higher loan and deposit margins, partially offset by loan growth exceeding deposit growth. US P&C NIM increased 5 basis points, as our deposit optimization activity led to higher margins that more than offset the impact of lower deposit balances. Since the second quarter of 2024, we have had four consecutive quarters with margin expansion for a total of 15 basis points, as well as in our P&C businesses during the remainder of this fiscal year.

在加拿大財產和意外險領域，淨利差增加了 4 個基點，反映出貸款和存款利潤率上升，但貸款成長超過存款成長，部分抵消了這一影響。美國財產和意外險淨利差增加了 5 個基點，因為我們的存款優化活動帶來了更高的利潤率，足以抵消存款餘額減少的影響。自 2024 年第二季以來，我們的利潤率已連續四個季度擴大，總計 15 個基點，本財年剩餘時間內我們的財產和意外傷害保險業務的利潤率也同樣擴大。

Turning to slide 12. Non-interest revenue was up 4% from the prior year. Growth in wealth management and trading and advisory fees in Capital Markets were offset by the shift of BA fees to net interest income, as well as the markdowns, lower securities gains, and loss on the sale of the card portfolio. We are also benefiting from good growth in deposit fees as we continue to expand TPS penetration with our corporate and commercial clients.

翻到第 12 張投影片。非利息收入比上年增加4%。資本市場財富管理費用和交易及諮詢費用的增長被 BA 費用向淨利息收入的轉移、降價、證券收益下降和信用卡組合出售損失所抵消。隨著我們繼續擴大 TPS 在企業和商業客戶中的滲透率，我們也受益於存款費用的良好成長。

Moving to slide 13. Expenses were up 6% from the prior year, or 2% excluding the stronger US dollar and performance-based compensation, driven mainly by higher employee and technology costs. The expense levels in Corporate Services during the quarter were below trend, which we do not expect to repeat.

移至幻燈片 13。支出較上年同期上漲 6%，若不計入美元走強和績效薪酬的影響則上漲 2%，主要原因是員工和技術成本上升。本季企業服務部門的支出水準低於趨勢水平，我們預期這種情況不會再發生。

We maintain our full-year year-over-year mid-single-digit expense growth expectation on a constant currency basis, excluding higher performance-based compensation, and expect the second-half growth to be higher than the first half. We still plan to deliver positive operating leverage as we maintain a disciplined approach on managing our expenses in line with revenues.

我們維持全年費用年增中個位數的預期（以固定匯率計算，不包括較高的績效薪酬），並預期下半年的成長將高於上半年。我們仍計劃提供積極的經營槓桿，因為我們將採取嚴格的方法來管理與收入相符的支出。

Turning to slide 14. Our CET1 ratio of 13.5% was down 10 basis points from last quarter as good internal capital generation was offset by share repurchases and higher source currency RWA. With the additional 2 million share repurchases in May, we have executed 50% of our buyback program since announcement earlier this year. Given our strong capital position, we plan to continue executing the remaining buybacks at a similar pace during the second half of the year.

翻到第 14 張投影片。我們的 CET1 比率為 13.5%，較上一季下降了 10 個基點，因為良好的內部資本產生被股票回購和更高的源貨幣 RWA 所抵消。加上 5 月額外回購的 200 萬股股票，自今年稍早宣布以來，我們已經執行了 50% 的回購計畫。鑑於我們強大的資本狀況，我們計劃在今年下半年繼續以類似的速度執行剩餘的回購。

Moving to the operating groups and starting on slide 15. Canadian P&C net income was down 10% year over year, as higher PCLs offset good PPPT growth of 5%. Revenue of $3 billion was up 6%, driven by higher net interest income, reflecting higher margins and balance sheet growth, with loans up 6% and deposits up 4%, partially offset by lower non-interest revenue. Expense growth of 6% reflected higher technology and employee-related costs.

轉到操作組並從幻燈片 15 開始。加拿大 P&C 淨收入年減 10%，因為 PCL 的增加抵消了 5% 的 PPPT 良好成長。營收成長 6% 至 30 億美元，受淨利息收入增加的推動，反映出利潤率增加和資產負債表成長，其中貸款成長 6%，存款成長 4%，但非利息收入減少部分抵銷了這一成長。6% 的費用成長反映了更高的技術和員工相關成本。

Moving to US P&C on slide 16. My comments here will speak to the US dollar performance. Excluding the loss on the sale of the card portfolio, net income increased by 3%, with PPPT growth of 8% and positive operating leverage. Revenue growth was driven by higher margins as balances were relatively stable year over year and higher deposit fees were offset by lower commercial M&A advisory fees. Expenses were relatively unchanged year over year, with higher employee costs offset by lower operating expenses.

前往投影片 16 上的美國財產與意外傷害保險。我在這裡的評論將談論美元的表現。不計卡組合銷售損失，淨收入成長 3%，PPPT 成長 8%，營運槓桿為正。收入成長是由更高的利潤率推動的，因為餘額與去年同期相比相對穩定，而更高的存款費用被更低的商業併購諮詢費用所抵消。支出與去年同期相比基本沒有變化，員工成本的增加被營運支出的降低所抵銷。

Moving to slide 17. BMO Wealth Management net income was up 13% from last year, with positive operating leverage of 3.5%. Revenue in Wealth and Asset Management was up 11%, driven by stronger global markets and strong net sales and balanced growth across loans and deposits. Insurance revenue was down 6%, reflecting unfavorable market movements in the current quarter. Expense growth of 7% was driven by higher employee-related expenses, including higher revenue-based costs and continued investment in talent.

移至投影片 17。BMO財富管理淨收入較去年同期成長13%，營業槓桿為3.5%。受全球市場走強、淨銷售額強勁以及貸款和存款均衡成長的推動，財富和資產管理業務的收入成長了 11%。保險收入下降 6%，反映出本季市場走勢不利。支出成長 7% 是由於員工相關支出增加，包括基於收入的成本增加和對人才的持續投資。

Moving to slide 18. BMO Capital Markets net income was down 7%, with PPPT growth of 6%, offset by higher PCLs. Revenue of $1.8 billion was up 7%, reflecting good performance in Global Markets, driven by strong client activity, particularly in commodities trading. Investment and Corporate Banking revenue was down due to the impact of markdowns and lower net securities gains, partially offset by higher advisory fees and Corporate Banking revenue. Expenses were up 8%, mainly driven by higher employee-related expenses and the impact of stronger US dollar.

移至幻燈片 18。BMO 資本市場淨收入下降 7%，PPPT 成長 6%，但被更高的 PCL 所抵消。營收成長 7% 至 18 億美元，反映出全球市場表現良好，這得益於強勁的客戶活動，尤其是大宗商品交易。投資和企業銀行業務收入因降價和淨證券收益下降的影響而下降，但被更高的諮詢費和企業銀行業務收入部分抵消。支出上漲8%，主要受員工相關支出增加及美元走強的影響。

For the second consecutive quarter, our Capital Markets performance has exceeded the guidance that we gave at the beginning of the year, especially with strong results in the Global Markets business. We remain aligned with our previous guidance of achieving quarterly PPPT of above $625 million during the remainder of the year. Our expectations reflect the strength of our model while recognizing the broader market uncertainties and the muted level of client activity in Investment and Corporate Banking.

連續第二個季度，我們的資本市場業績超過了年初給出的預期，尤其是全球市場業務的強勁業績。我們仍與先前的指導方針保持一致，即在今年剩餘時間內實現季度 PPPT 超過 6.25 億美元。我們的預期反映了我們模型的優勢，同時也認識到更廣泛的市場不確定性以及投資和公司銀行業務客戶活動的低迷水平。

Turning now to slide 19. Corporate Services net loss was $155 million due to the low point in retained expenses in the current quarter, mainly due to timing. We expect the third-quarter net income in our Corporate segment to be similar to last year's third quarter.

現在翻到第 19 張投影片。企業服務淨虧損為 1.55 億美元，主要原因是本季留存費用處於低位，時間安排不當。我們預計企業部門第三季的淨收入將與去年第三季持平。

In closing, our results this quarter reflect solid execution and financial discipline, with strong performance helping our progress towards achieving our targets. Revenue growth was supported by all business segments which, together with disciplined expense management, helped us sustain positive operating leverage. And as we expected, we continue to make progress in reducing our impaired PCLs.

最後，本季的業績反映了我們穩健的執行力和財務紀律，強勁的表現幫助我們朝著實現目標的方向前進。所有業務部門都支持了收入成長，再加上嚴格的費用管理，幫助我們維持了積極的營運槓桿。正如我們預期的那樣，我們在減少受損的 PCL 方面繼續取得進展。

Our balance sheet remains a point of strength with healthy capital ratios, sound liquidity, and a well-managed risk profile, as we look for more clarity in the macro environment in coming quarters. These outcomes reflect the resilience and the balance of our underlying business model and position us well against our strategic priorities.

我們的資產負債表仍然是一個優勢，擁有健康的資本比率、良好的流動性和良好管理的風險狀況，我們期待未來幾季宏觀環境更加明朗。這些成果反映了我們基礎商業模式的彈性和平衡性，並使我們很好地適應了我們的策略重點。

I will now turn it over to Piyush.

現在我將把發言權交給 Piyush。

Thank you, Tayfun, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Tayfun，大家早安。

In line with our prior guidance, impaired provisions for credit losses continued to improve this quarter. At the same time, we remain cautious given the ongoing uncertainty and volatility in the economic environment related to trade policies. The outlook for the Canadian economy has weakened with rising unemployment and declining GDP growth. The US market has shown resilience, but momentum has softened. This weaker macroeconomic outlook relative to Q1 is now incorporated into our base case, driving performing PCL of $289 million for the quarter.

按照我們先前的指導，本季信貸損失減損準備金持續改善。同時，鑑於與貿易政策相關的經濟環境持續存在的不確定性和波動性，我們仍保持謹慎。隨著失業率上升和 GDP 成長下降，加拿大經濟前景變得疲軟。美國市場表現出韌性，但動能減弱。與第一季相比，這一較弱的宏觀經濟前景現已納入我們的基準預測，推動本季的業績利潤達到 2.89 億美元。

On slide 21, performing allowance stands at $4.7 billion, providing good coverage of 69 basis points over performing loans given the credit profile of the portfolio and our forecast for impaired losses. We continue to monitor closely the outcome of trade negotiations and will incorporate changes to the outlook in the allowance assessment in future quarters.

在投影片 21 上，履約準備金為 47 億美元，根據投資組合的信用狀況和我們對減損損失的預測，該準備金為履約貸款提供了 69 個基點的良好覆蓋率。我們將繼續密切關注貿易談判的結果，並將在未來幾季的配額評估中納入前景變化。

Please turn to slide 22 for an overview of total and impaired provisions. The total provision for credit losses was $1.1 billion, or 63 basis points. Impaired provisions for the quarter was $765 million, or 46 basis points, down 4 basis points from prior quarter and down 20 basis points from Q4. The quarter-over-quarter improvement was primarily due to lower losses in our US commercial business.

請翻到投影片 22 查看總額和減損準備金的概覽。信貸損失準備金總額為 11 億美元，即 63 個基點。本季減損準備為 7.65 億美元，即 46 個基點，比上一季下降 4 個基點，比第四季下降 20 個基點。季度環比改善主要歸因於我們美國商業業務的虧損減少。

Personal and Business Banking impaired losses were $318 million in Canada and $67 million in the US, down $6 million and $19 million, respectively. Delinquencies are continuing to trend up in our Canadian consumer portfolios, in line with rising unemployment. We expect these trends to result in moderately higher losses in the unsecured portfolios, and we have expanded early customer engagement to help manage these risks.

加拿大個人和商業銀行業務減損損失為 3.18 億美元，美國為 6,700 萬美元，分別下降 600 萬美元和 1,900 萬美元。隨著失業率的上升，加拿大消費者投資組合中的拖欠率持續呈上升趨勢。我們預計這些趨勢將導致無擔保投資組合的損失略有增加，並且我們已經擴大了早期客戶參與度以幫助管理這些風險。

In our commercial businesses, impaired loan provisions were $158 million in Canada and $180 million in the US, down $9 million and $46 million, respectively. Capital Markets impaired losses of $28 million was down $7 million from prior quarter. The pace of credit migration across the wholesale portfolio has been slowing, and impaired formations decreased $601 million over the prior quarter, as shown on slide 23. Gross impaired loans were relatively stable, and the GIL ratio at 99 basis points was down 1 basis point from last quarter.

在我們的商業業務中，加拿大的減損貸款準備金為 1.58 億美元，美國的減損貸款準備金為 1.8 億美元，分別下降 900 萬美元和 4,600 萬美元。資本市場減損損失為 2,800 萬美元，較上一季減少 700 萬美元。如投影片 23 所示，批發投資組合的信貸轉移速度一直在放緩，受損資產較上一季減少了 6.01 億美元。總減損貸款相對穩定，GIL 比率為 99 個基點，較上一季下降 1 個基點。

We are encouraged by the positive signs in our credit portfolio, including lower migration to watch list and impaired and moderating provisions in our wholesale business. At the same time, we are subject to macro and industry risks related to the evolution of trade policies, some of which have already had an impact on business and consumer confidence and on economic activity.

我們的信貸組合中出現了一些積極跡象，包括轉移到觀察名單的人數減少，以及批發業務中的減值準備金和緩和準備金，這些都令我們感到鼓舞。同時，我們也面臨與貿易政策演變相關的宏觀和產業風險，其中一些風險已經對企業和消費者信心以及經濟活動產生了影響。

Our impaired provisions are trending in line with our previous guidance. But given all of the tariff and pronouncements, it is possible that impaired provisions may rise modestly from here, but remain manageable. We are actively managing the tariff risks, including close monitoring of our portfolios and engaging with clients to help them manage through this uncertainty. Given the diversification of our portfolio, strong capital and liquidity levels, we are in a good position to manage current and emerging risks.

我們的減損準備趨勢與我們先前的指導一致。但考慮到所有的關稅和聲明，受損準備金可能會從現在開始小幅上升，但仍在可控範圍內。我們正在積極管理關稅風險，包括密切監控我們的投資組合併與客戶合作，幫助他們應對這種不確定性。鑑於我們投資組合的多樣化、強大的資本和流動性水平，我們有能力管理當前和新興的風險。

I will now turn the call back to the operator for the Q&A portion of this call.

我現在將把電話轉回給接線生，進行本次通話的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial.

（操作員指示）Gabriel Dechaine，國家銀行金融。

Hi. Good morning. I want to ask, I guess, a two-fold question on the ROE story here, which is clearly an emphasis for the bank. In my view, and I think mathematically, heavily contingent on improvement in the US business. First, we saw commercial loan growth negative sequentially. What's the outlook there? Is there any, I guess, hope that we could see that commercial book turn around into positive growth over the course of the year?

你好。早安.我想就 ROE 問題提出兩個問題，這顯然是銀行的重點。在我看來，從數學角度來看，這很大程度取決於美國業務的改善。首先，我們看到商業貸款成長連續出現負成長。那裡的前景如何？我想，我們是否有希望看到商業圖書在今年實現正成長？

And then on the, I guess, funding optimization, we saw a drop in US deposits sequentially, and that's getting rid of higher cost deposits. But as you look -- your strategy seems to emphasize, let's get some lower cost deposits. How easy is that? How do you execute on that? It's easy to say and perfectly logical, but there's got to be a cost and an execution challenge there. So how long does that take to start seeing an improved funding mix in the US? Thanks.

然後，我想，在資金優化方面，我們看到美國存款連續下降，這是因為高成本存款的減少。但正如您所看到的——您的策略似乎強調，讓我們獲得一些成本較低的存款。這有多容易？您如何執行這項目標？這說起來容易，也完全合乎邏輯，但必然會有成本，執行上也會有挑戰。那麼，需要多長時間才能開始看到美國融資結構改善呢？謝謝。

Yeah. Gabe, it's Darryl. Maybe I'll start the response to your question. There was a lot in your question, and I might invite -- given the market dynamics that you correctly allude to, I'm going to invite Ernie and Nadim to comment as well from the retail and commercial perspectives.

是的。加布，我是達裡爾。也許我會開始回答你的問題。您的問題包含很多內容，鑑於您正確提到的市場動態，我可能會邀請 Ernie 和 Nadim 從零售和商業角度發表評論。

In the US, you're quite right, we're very committed to the ROE rebuild. A lot of that is in the US, as you've seen and as we talked about over the last couple of years. I would start by saying that the balance sheet dynamism that you're observing, for sure, it's been muted for a while. That's not just us, that's the industry.

在美國，您說得非常對，我們非常致力於 ROE 重建。其中許多都發生在美國，正如您所看到的以及我們在過去幾年中討論過的。首先我想說的是，您觀察到的資產負債表活力肯定已經減弱了一段時間了。這不只是我們，整個產業都是如此。

If I look at loans, we've been in line with market for a few quarters now in that flattish world. And when I look at deposits, we had some, frankly, we had a lot of opportunity there because our liquidity, which we had lots of and we had built pretty successfully over a couple of years, gave us the opportunity to reprice lower value deposits. And you're seeing that in our NIM. Tayfun mentioned that we're up 5 basis points on the NIM, which is pretty impressive. We see more room there as well.

如果我看一下貸款，在這個平淡的世界中，我們已經與市場保持一致幾個季度了。當我看存款時，坦白說，我們有很多機會，因為我們的流動性（我們擁有大量流動性，並且我們在過去幾年中已經相當成功地建立了流動性）使我們有機會重新定價較低價值的存款。您可以在我們的 NIM 中看到這一點。Tayfun 提到我們的 NIM 上升了 5 個基點，這相當令人印象深刻。我們也看到那裡有更多的空間。

So let me make a couple more comments before we come back to how the balance sheet could move, because I'm quite impressed with the way our teams aren't just waiting for a rebound in loan demand. Like, if I look fundamentally at the US P&C's PPPT delivery, despite little movement in loan demand in the marketplace, it's up 5% year to date. It's up 7% year to date if you exclude the card loss that Tayfun described earlier, and 8% in the quarter. So it's even accelerating quarterly relative to the year-to-date.

因此，在我們回到關於資產負債表如何變動的討論之前，請允許我再發表幾點評論，因為我對我們的團隊不僅僅等待貸款需求反彈的方式印象深刻。例如，如果我從根本上看美國 P&C 的 PPPT 交付，儘管市場貸款需求變動不大，但今年迄今仍上漲了 5%。如果排除 Tayfun 先前描述的信用卡損失，今年迄今已上漲 7%，本季則上漲 8%。因此，與年初至今相比，其季度增速甚至還在加快。

And why is that? It's because of the pricing and the balance sheet optimization that we've been talking about. And we do expect that to continue. And we expect to diversify into more fee-generating revenues. So the teams have done a really good job on that.

這是為什麼呢？這是因為我們一直在談論定價和資產負債表優化。我們確實希望這種情況能夠持續下去。我們希望實現業務多元化，獲得更多收費收入。所以團隊在這方面做得非常好。

And cycling it round-trip back to the ROE journey, when I look back to the 6.2% number that we had in 2024, that's 7% already in 2025 year to date. So we're on the journey. We're making these moves, and we're executing pretty well against them. And that's before an uptick in loan demand, which I've been saying this for some time, but it will come one day. But that would be in addition to everything I've just said.

將其循環回到 ROE 旅程，當我回顧 2024 年的 6.2% 這個數字時，到 2025 年迄今已經達到了 7%。所以，我們已踏上旅程。我們正在採取這些舉措，而且執行得相當好。這是在貸款需求上升之前，我已經說了一段時間了，但總有一天它會到來。但這對我剛才所說的一切都是補充。

Why don't we have -- Ernie, can you give a couple of comments from your perspective, and then Nadim, please?

我們為什麼不——厄尼，你能從你的角度發表一些評論嗎？然後納迪姆，好嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, Darryl. And thank you, Gabriel, for the question.

是的。謝謝，達裡爾。感謝加布里埃爾提出這個問題。

So two parts to the strategy in the retail bank in the US. One, Darryl's already spoken to, and Tayfun did as well, is around we're changing our funding mix. And we are fundamentally looking at building deeper relationships in core deposits. So we're going to change that funding mix. And you see that today coming through in the NIM improvement, the 5 basis points quarter over quarter. But that's 14 basis points year over year. And that shift is really critical in our ROE field.

美國零售銀行的策略分為兩部分。其中一個，Darryl 已經和 Tayfun 談過了，那就是我們正在改變我們的資金組合。我們從根本上尋求在核心存款領域建立更深層的關係。所以我們將改變這種資金組合。您會看到，今天的 NIM 有所改善，比上一季提高了 5 個基點。但這比去年同期增加了 14 個基點。這種轉變對於我們的 ROE 領域來說確實至關重要。

But at the same time, we're not giving up on a new customer acquisition, which is really focused on those core checking, savings accounts, money market accounts in our US business. And that performance is based on driving new customers into our franchise and deepening the relationship with the existing.

但同時，我們並沒有放棄新客戶的獲取，我們的重點其實是美國業務的核心支票、儲蓄帳戶和貨幣市場帳戶。這項業績是基於吸引新客戶加入我們的特許經營店並深化與現有客戶的關係。

Just to give you a perspective, our checking account acquisition in the West or in California is up 9%, whereas we're about 7% overall. So you see the California market picking up for us in particular.

僅供您參考，我們在西部或加州的支票帳戶收購量增加了 9%，而整體成長量約為 7%。因此，您會看到加州市場對我們來說尤其有利。

And then lastly, I would say the effectiveness of our analytics and our marketing is really driving more primacy with our existing customers and driving also the productivity of our sales force. So while you see us reducing those high-cost deposits, we're bringing in new customers and new relationships on checking, savings, and money market accounts.

最後，我想說，我們的分析和行銷的有效性確實提高了我們現有客戶的首要地位，也提高了我們銷售團隊的生產力。因此，當您看到我們減少那些高成本存款時，我們正在透過支票、儲蓄和貨幣市場帳戶吸引新客戶和建立新關係。

So with that, I'll turn it over to Nadim to talk specifically about the loan side on the commercial.

因此，我將把話題交給納迪姆，讓他具體談談商業貸款方面的問題。

Okay. Thanks, Ernie.

好的。謝謝，厄尼。

As Darryl mentioned, the borrowing demand in the US has been largely muted, as we've seen in recent quarters. That's in line with industry peers. So our results are very similar. At the same time, I think we've mentioned we're focused on acquiring strong ROE loans with appropriate risk return and full banking relationships, which means we're also optimizing capital away from deals or portfolios that do not meet our long-term return thresholds.

正如達裡爾所提到的，正如我們在最近幾季看到的那樣，美國的借貸需求基本上處於低迷狀態。這與業內同業一致。所以我們的結果非常相似。同時，我想我們已經提到過，我們專注於收購具有適當風險回報和全面銀行關係的強勁 ROE 貸款，這意味著我們還在優化資本，使其遠離不符合我們長期回報門檻的交易或投資組合。

But I will tell you, Gabriel, our pipelines are healthy. Execution has obviously been delayed due to uncertainty in the market. However, I will say also that in my recent conversations with clients, sentiment is actually improving. And as we get more clarity in the economic environment, as Darryl mentioned, we do expect loan growth to be positive in the back half of the year.

但我會告訴你，加布里埃爾，我們的管道是健康的。由於市場不確定性，執行顯然被推遲了。不過，我還要說的是，在我最近與客戶的交談中，情緒實際上正在改善。正如達裡爾所提到的，隨著經濟環境變得更加明朗，我們確實預計今年下半年貸款成長將呈正成長。

And I'll also say that we've seen the month of April show some positive signs already. In the meantime, we're executing on our fee-generating strategic initiatives. So as Darryl mentioned in his opening remarks, our TPS and Treasury revenue is outpacing our expectations with double-digit growth. This is a significant part of our ROE rebuild journey. And our one-client efforts, so referrals between capital markets, commercial and wealth, continue to accelerate, and again, a key part of our ROE rebuild journey.

我還要說的是，我們已經看到四月出現了一些積極的跡象。同時，我們正在執行收費策略舉措。正如 Darryl 在開場白中提到的那樣，我們的 TPS 和財務收入超出了我們的預期，實現了兩位數的成長。這是我們 ROE 重建之旅的重要部分。我們的單一客戶努力，即資本市場、商業和財富之間的推薦，繼續加速，這也是我們 ROE 重建之旅的關鍵部分。

The second part of your question, Gabe, was on the deposit side. So very similar to what Ernie talked about in commercial, as we optimize loans, we're optimizing the entire balance sheet, including deposits. Pipeline is actually very healthy on our deposit side, good core operating deposits. So what we are doing is in a balanced way, as we get new client acquisition, which we are each and every day, and it's healthy, we are dismissing deposits that, for example, in Q2, what you're seeing is the effect of exiting large dollar, low liquidity value, high cost deposits. And in favor of that, we brought in good core operating deposits. And as you saw, deposit margins are showing about a 5-basis-point improvement already, again, part of the ROE rebuild.

加布，你問題的第二部分是關於存款方面。這與 Ernie 在商業中談到的非常相似，當我們優化貸款時，我們正在優化整個資產負債表，包括存款。就我們的存款而言，管道實際上非常健康，核心營運存款良好。因此，我們正在採取一種平衡的方式，隨著我們獲得新客戶，我們每天都在這樣做，而且這是健康的，我們正在取消存款，例如，在第二季度，你看到的是退出大額、低流動性價值、高成本存款的效果。為了實現這一點，我們引入了良好的核心營運存款。正如您所看到的，存款利潤率已經顯示出約 5 個基點的改善，這也是 ROE 重建的一部分。

Okay. Well, in the interest of time, I'll say thanks, and have a good day.

好的。好吧，為了節省時間，我要說謝謝，並祝您有美好的一天。

John Aiken, Jefferies.

約翰艾肯，傑富瑞。

Good morning. Thanks. In terms of the balance sheet restructuring that you're undergoing on in the US, obviously, good to see the movements near the sale of the credit card portfolio. I'm assuming, though, that there are other opportunities that you're exploring. Is there any way that you're able to scale or quantify what these potential opportunities are moving forward, of course, with the condition that I'm not going to hold you to an exact number?

早安.謝謝。就你們在美國進行的資產負債表重組而言，顯然，很高興看到信用卡組合出售方面的動向。不過，我假設您正在探索其他機會。當然，在我不會要求您給出一個確切數字的前提下，您能否以任何方式衡量或量化這些潛在機會的進展？

We have an ambitious plan to improve our ROE within a very reasonable timeframe. And that means that we have to look at all of our businesses and the entirety of our balance sheet, and we're doing that. I don't have any specific news to share with you today. As we identify them and as we make the decisions, we'll share those decisions with you.

我們有一個雄心勃勃的計劃，要在非常合理的時間內提高我們的 ROE。這意味著我們必須審視我們所有的業務和整個資產負債表，我們正在這樣做。今天我沒有什麼具體的消息可以跟大家分享。當我們確定這些因素並做出決定時，我們會與您分享這些決定。

Can we expect periodic announcements over the period of time where you're trying to improve your ROE? Granted, not expecting everything every quarter, but is this something -- will the second quarter's experience be representative of what we might be able to expect moving forward?

在您試圖提高 ROE 的期間內，我們是否可以期待定期發佈公告？當然，我們不會期待每季都會發生的所有事情，但第二季的經驗是否能夠代表我們對未來的預期？

I think it's reasonable to assume, given, again, the plans that we have, that there will be other decisions that we will make along the way. I can't comment on the timing of those decisions, but I think it is reasonable to assume that there will be more.

我認為，考慮到我們的計劃，可以合理地假設，在此過程中我們還會做出其他決定。我無法評論這些決定的時機，但我認為可以合理地假設還會有更多決定。

Understood. Thank you. I'll requeue.

明白了。謝謝。我會重新排隊。

Matthew Lee, Canaccord Genuity.

Canaccord Genuity 的 Matthew Lee。

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. So at the end of last year, you did a lot of work walking through your US commercial portfolio to really try to determine areas of risk. And it looks like maybe it's paying off here with PCLs dropping this quarter. Can you maybe talk about what you're hearing from your US commercial customers that's getting more comfortable with your current allowances?

嗨，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。因此，去年年底，您做了很多工作來審查您的美國商業投資組合，以真正嘗試確定風險領域。隨著本季 PCL 的下降，看起來它可能會得到回報。您能否談談您從美國商業客戶那裡聽到的關於他們對您目前的配額越來越滿意的消息？

Matt, can you just repeat the question? You said just in the US?

馬特，你能重複一下這個問題嗎？你說的只是在美國？

Yeah, US commercial, but just what you're hearing from commercial customers right now that is getting you comfortable with the credit situation that you're seeing in that space?

是的，美國商業，但是您現在從商業客戶那裡聽到的消息是否讓您對該領域的信貸狀況感到滿意？

I think our customers are absolutely indifferent and untouched. In fact, we are here as a relationship bank for our customers, so the credit situation is more internal. We manage through that, as you can see, in the sequential improvement across the enterprise. But from a customer perspective, it's growing. The book is very healthy, I would say, in general.

我認為我們的客戶完全無動於衷，不受影響。事實上，我們是作為客戶的關係銀行來到這裡，因此信用情況更多的是內部的。如您所見，我們透過這種方式實現了整個企業的連續改進。但從客戶的角度來看，它正在成長。我想說，總的來說，這本書非常健康。

I'll probably offer Nadim the opportunity to talk about the US commercial book.

我可能會給納迪姆提供機會談論美國商業書籍。

Yeah. Thanks, Piyush.

是的。謝謝，Piyush。

I would say, when I think about our conversations with customers and how they're feeling with the environment that we're under, as I mentioned earlier, the sentiment continues to improve and getting more and more positive. The customers are navigating quite well in the environment. They're focusing on cost discipline, working capital management, finding new markets, strategizing about evolution of their business models and what -- as the fiscal policy settles in the market.

我想說，當我想到我們與客戶的對話以及他們對我們所處環境的感受時，正如我之前提到的，情緒持續改善並且變得越來越積極。客戶在環境中導航得相當好。他們專注於成本控制、營運資本管理、尋找新市場、制定商業模式演變策略以及財政政策在市場上的實施。

So so far, we're feeling good about the commercial book. Customers are feeling better. And we do expect, like I said, some rebound coming in the back half of the year, including some likely rebound in the M&A markets as well.

到目前為止，我們對這本商業書籍感覺良好。顧客感覺好多了。正如我所說，我們確實預計今年下半年會出現一些反彈，包括併購市場也可能出現反彈。

So I guess you're pretty comfortable with the idea that, assuming there's no further tariff impacts, PCL should continue to kind of trend the way that you suggested it would kind of in Q4.

因此，我想您會對這個想法感到很滿意，假設沒有進一步的關稅影響，PCL 應該會繼續按照您所建議的方式在第四季度呈現趨勢。

Yeah. I would say the tariff impact, the short answer is, even without any tariff impact, there is a little bit prolonged uncertainty, which is obviously slowing the environment that has an impact on some of the files that are already being worked through. But it's moderate. So if everything works out the way we expect, I don't see any significant shift in what we've guided you.

是的。我想說的是關稅的影響，簡而言之，即使沒有任何關稅影響，也存在一些長期的不確定性，這顯然會減緩環境，對一些已經在處理的文件產生影響。但還是適度的。因此，如果一切都按照我們預期的方式進行，我認為我們所指導的內容不會有任何重大變化。

Okay. And then I might have missed this, but what's the tariffs that are kind of baked into your base case expectations in your credit model right now?

好的。然後我可能錯過了這一點，但是現在您的信用模型中納入基本預期的關稅是什麼樣的？

So in Q2, what had been announced, and of course, these are stop, go that we hear every week, but our Q2 economic forecast base case saw significant deterioration. You'll see some of this in our disclosure.

因此，在第二季度，我們已經宣布了什麼，當然，這些都是我們每週都會聽到的，但我們對第二季度經濟預測的基本情況出現了顯著惡化。您將在我們的披露中看到其中的一些內容。

If I were to just point you to a couple of metrics, you think about Canadian GDP. Six months ago, we were projecting about a 1.82%. And in Q2, that was 0% to negative 0.2% in our base case. In the next 12 months, even more significant, and I would point you to Canadian unemployment, unemployment has a big driver to our PCLs across. Six months ago, we thought unemployment should be improving from 7% down to maybe 6.5%. Now, we've got a deteriorating outlook for unemployment with 7% going up to 8%. So you'll see more of these details in our disclosure, which really drove our performing PCLs in the second quarter.

如果我要你指出幾個指標，你會想到加拿大的 GDP。六個月前，我們預測成長率約為 1.82%。而在第二季度，根據我們的基本預測，這一比例為 0% 至 -0.2%。在接下來的 12 個月中，更重要的是，我想指出加拿大的失業率，失業率對我們全國的 PCL 有很大的推動作用。六個月前，我們認為失業率應該會從 7% 下降到 6.5% 左右。現在，失業率前景惡化，將從 7% 上升至 8%。因此，您會在我們的披露中看到更多此類細節，這確實推動了我們第二季度的 PCL 表現。

Okay, thanks. That's helpful.

好的，謝謝。這很有幫助。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Hey. Good morning. I guess maybe, Tayfun, following up on the US ROE discussion, remind us if there's anything from a capital standpoint that we should be mindful of around capital allocation to the US. We have the stress test results coming out, which did have an impact on the stock last year. So any kind of expectation? I realize it's an opaque process, but how you are approaching the stress test, anything coming out of that may -- that could inform your capital allocation decision in terms of how much capital you hold in the US bank?

嘿。早安.我想也許 Tayfun 在跟進美國 ROE 討論時，會提醒我們，從資本的角度來看，在向美國配置資本時，是否有任何需要我們注意的地方。我們的壓力測試結果已經出來了，這確實對去年的股票產生了影響。那麼有什麼期望嗎？我知道這是一個不透明的過程，但是您如何進行壓力測試，任何結果都可能——可以為您的資本配置決策提供信息，例如您在美國銀行持有多少資本？

The short answer is no. Some aspects of our capital situation in the US really are related to the strength of the capital position, both with respect to our historical levels as well as with respect to the peers. And it's accreting quite fast, which is just fine, and that we expected that. I think we shared that with you at the end of last year that our expectation is still strong accretion in the US. We're quite happy with that. I don't expect this year's CCAR exercise to have any meaningful impact on how we manage capital.

簡短的回答是「否」。我們在美國資本狀況的某些方面確實與資本狀況的強度有關，無論是相對於我們的歷史水平還是相對於同行而言。而且它的吸積速度相當快，這很好，這也是我們預期的。我想我們在去年年底就和大家分享過，我們預計美國經濟仍將強勁成長。我們對此非常滿意。我並不認為今年的 CCAR 演習會對我們的資本管理方式產生任何有意義的影響。

Got it. And if I could follow up on the margin discussion earlier. One, I think last quarter, you talked about stable margin outlook. You had a decent expansion this quarter. If you don't mind spending some time on the puts and takes, I heard you on the deposit mix optimization. But when I look at the US margin at 3.9%, it seems to be best in class. So one, do you see that 3.9% margin improving materially from here? And is the bias on the balance sheet, is it asset sensitive, liability sensitive? How should we think about that?

知道了。我是否可以提早跟進保證金討論。首先，我認為上個季度您談到了穩定的利潤前景。本季你們的擴張情況不錯。如果您不介意花一些時間在看跌期權和看漲期權上，我聽說了您對存款組合優化的看法。但當我看到美國的利潤率為 3.9% 時，它似乎是同類中最好的。那麼，您是否認為 3.9% 的利潤率將從現在開始大幅提高？資產負債表上的偏差是否對資產敏感，對負債敏感？我們該如何看待這個問題？

So the principle that we have applied in the way we manage our interest rate risk, in the way we manage our balance sheet is one of stability. And we've been on that for a number of years now. We try to let the businesses drive our margins with credit spreads as they move and also with discrete balance sheet actions such as the ones that Ernie and Nadim mentioned.

因此，我們在管理利率風險和管理資產負債表時所採用的原則是穩定原則。我們已經為此努力了很多年。我們嘗試讓企業利用信用利差的變化以及 Ernie 和 Nadim 提到的離散資產負債表行動來提高我們的利潤率。

As I look ahead, I do expect those actions as they will remain in place for the duration of our ROE journey to continue to impact our margins. Today, as I sit here, I expect them to be positive in the coming quarters. We're not changing our stability target in terms of managing our margin, and I'm not expecting a significant improvement in those margins. But probably, I had commented on this a couple of quarters ago, I expect a stable margin with some upside. But I want to be cautious about that upside because it tends to be impacted by the movement in market interest rates.

展望未來，我確實預計這些行動將在我們的 ROE 旅程期間持續實施，並將繼續影響我們的利潤率。今天，當我坐在這裡時，我預計他們在未來幾季會表現積極。在管理利潤率方面，我們不會改變我們的穩定目標，而且我也不期望利潤率會有顯著的提高。但可能，我在幾個季度前就對此發表過評論，我預計利潤率會保持穩定並有一定的上漲空間。但我希望對這種上行趨勢保持謹慎，因為它往往會受到市場利率變動的影響。

So my message is the same as before, Ebrahim.

所以我的信息和以前一樣，易卜拉欣。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Doug Young, Desjardins Capital Markets.

道格楊 (Doug Young)，德斯雅爾丹資本市場 (Desjardins Capital Markets)。

Hi. Good morning. Piyush, I just wanted to go back to your comment that you might see impaired PCLs up moderately from here but to remain manageable. And so just trying to understand or maybe you can kind of flesh out what frames that you've given what we hear from the team and just your kind of seems to be a little bit more cautiously optimistic outlook. And can you define up modestly from here? I mean, your PCLs have been quite volatile in the last year or so. Can you give a kind of a sense of what you mean by moderately?

你好。早安.Piyush，我只是想回到你的評論，你可能會看到受損的 PCL 從現在開始適度上升，但仍在可控範圍內。因此，只是想了解一下，或者您可以充實一下您所給出的框架，根據我們從團隊那裡聽到的信息，您似乎持更謹慎樂觀的態度。您能從這裡謙虛地定義一下嗎？我的意思是，您的 PCL 在過去一年左右一直非常不穩定。您能解釋一下「適度」是什麼意思嗎？

Yeah. Sure, Doug.

是的。當然，道格。

So just to give you a sense of the forward trajectory, let's step back in the last two quarters. You've seen sequential improvement from us down from 66 basis points to 46. That's significant progress and it shows you the amount of work the teams have been putting in into our credit portfolios.

因此，為了讓您了解未來的發展軌跡，讓我們回顧一下過去兩個季度。您已經看到我們的連續改善，從 66 個基點降至 46 個基點。這是一個重大進展，它展示了團隊為我們的信貸組合投入了多少工作。

But in addition to the outcome of what you've seen in the PCL, you're also seeing key portfolio metrics like watch list and impaired formations at its lowest level in the last five quarters. So this backdrop gives us comfort around the guidance we had given you in the high 40s, and there will be inter-quarter variability. I've always mentioned that because of sometimes the lumpiness of large files. But as you look forward, we're just mindful of the headwinds in the outlook.

但除了您在 PCL 中看到的結果之外，您還會看到關鍵投資組合指標（如觀察名單和受損形態）處於過去五個季度的最低水平。因此，在這種背景下，我們對 40 年代後期給予的指導感到放心，並且季度間會存在差異。我總是提到這一點，因為有時大檔案會比較笨重。但當你展望未來時，我們只會注意到前景中的阻力。

So the evolving US trade policies has created uncertainty and volatility. And no matter what gets resolved, this uncertainty and volatility itself -- and the way you should think about this is we've run different scenarios. If I were to give you the scenario rewinding the last three or four months and said there were no tariffs, then we would exactly be in the trend of our guidance.

因此，美國貿易政策的演變帶來了不確定性和波動性。無論問題如何解決，這種不確定性和波動性本身——你應該這樣思考：我們已經運行了不同的場景。如果我給你回顧過去三、四個月的情況，並且說沒有關稅，那麼我們就正好處於我們指導的趨勢中。

If you take the scenario, things will get resolved, but it will take some time, that's a couple of basis points. So we've given you guidance of high 40s. You can add a few basis points just because of the time factor of the resolution. And if things don't get resolved and the tariff wars pick up, then that's a much more adverse scenario that would put us and everybody else probably out of guidance.

如果你採取這種方案，事情就會解決，但這需要一些時間，也就是幾個基點。因此我們為您提供了 40 多歲的指導。只因為決議的時間因素，你可以添加幾個基點。如果問題無法解決，關稅戰加劇，那麼情況就會變得更加不利，我們和其他所有人都可能失去指導。

That's helpful. And if I could just -- one quick one. Your net interest revenue just seems lower in Canada than the US. And just wanted to confirm, in the US, that includes the loss related to the sale of that portfolio. But just trying to understand lower non-interest revenues in Canada and the US if there's any big drivers behind that.

這很有幫助。如果我可以的話——快速問一個問題。您的淨利息收入在加拿大似乎低於美國。我只是想確認一下，在美國，這包括與出售該投資組合相關的損失。但只是想了解加拿大和美國非利息收入下降的原因，看看背後是否有任何重大驅動因素。

No. I think, yes, the loss on the sale of the credit card portfolio is included in our numbers in the US. There are a couple of items in Canada that have impacted the trends, including the BA fees shifting to net interest income in Canada. And also, just keep in mind that Q2 has three less days in the quarter, which tends to impact fees as well, especially in our P&BB business and our Wealth Management business.

不。是的，我認為，出售信用卡組合的損失已經包含在我們在美國的數據中。加拿大有幾項因素影響了這一趨勢，包括加拿大的 BA 費用轉向淨利息收入。此外，請記住，第二季比第一季少了三天，這也往往會影響費用，尤其是在我們的 P&BB 業務和財富管理業務中。

Okay. So it's just really in the US is the big one. Okay, appreciate the color. Thank you.

好的。所以這在美國確實是一個大問題。好的，欣賞一下顏色。謝謝。

Paul Holden, CIBC.

加拿大帝國商業銀行 (CIBC) 的保羅霍爾頓 (Paul Holden)。

Thanks. Good morning. I wonder if you can provide similar commentary on what Canadian commercial customers are saying, if the message or sentiments are any different than what you're hearing from the US with a little bit more caution.

謝謝。早安.我想知道您是否可以對加拿大商業客戶的言論提供類似的評論，這些消息或觀點是否與您從美國聽到的有所不同，並且需要更加謹慎。

Thanks for the question. Obviously, something on everyone's mind. Talking to clients, I would say it's still similar to the US. It's cautious optimism that this will get resolved in a timely fashion. And when it does, there'll be some sort of tariffs, but it'll be manageable, reasonable, and that our clients feel comfortable that they'll be able to work around it.

謝謝你的提問。顯然，每個人都在想一些事情。與客戶交談時，我會說它仍然與美國相似。我們謹慎樂觀地認為這個問題將及時解決。當這種情況發生時，就會產生某種關稅，但它是可控的、合理的，而且我們的客戶會感到放心，他們可以解決這個問題。

Most of our Canadian clients, there's a, I would call, wait-and-see or a watch mode, a little bit of cautiousness. We saw good loan growth in Canada going into the year. Q1 was good. Q2 held up pretty well as well. But we are seeing some moderation, I would expect. We're going to see some moderation downwards on the loan growth for the remainder of the year in Canada. But I still expect the loan growth to be positive. So clients are cautious, but there's still activity, but at a decelerating pace.

我認為，我們的大多數加拿大客戶都採取觀望或觀察模式，有點謹慎。我們看到加拿大今年的貸款成長良好。Q1 很好。Q2 也表現得相當不錯。但我預計，我們將看到一些緩和。我們將看到今年剩餘時間內加拿大的貸款成長放緩。但我仍然預計貸款成長將為正。因此客戶很謹慎，但仍有活動，但速度正在減慢。

Okay. And then maybe one question on Capital Markets, because I think one of the earlier questions on the US is prospect for more M&A in the second half of the year. So maybe a refresh of what the Capital Markets pipeline looks like if you have a similar read in terms of potential for more activity in the back half of the year, particularly in the sort of that mid-market private equity space where BMO really has a good market position.

好的。然後也許還有一個關於資本市場的問題，因為我認為之前關於美國的一個問題是今年下半年是否有更多併購的前景。因此，如果您對下半年可能出現的更多活動有類似的解讀，也許可以刷新資本市場管道的視野，特別是在 BMO 真正佔據良好市場地位的中型私募股權領域。

Thanks, Paul. And appreciate the question. And I'd be remiss if I didn't just take a second and highlight some of the strength that we've had in our M&A practice, particularly in Canada around our metals and mining business, energy, and most recently around real estate.

謝謝，保羅。我很感謝你提出這個問題。如果我不用一點時間來強調我們在併購業務中的一些優勢，尤其是在加拿大的金屬和採礦業務、能源以及最近的房地產領域，那我就是失職了。

So what you're really seeing is a mixed picture around the M&A market. And as you point out, the US has been weaker. And that's certainly the experience post the geopolitical dynamics around the tariff announcements. We are starting to see a pickup in the pace of meetings and pitches and engagement.

所以你真正看到的是併購市場的情況好壞參半。正如你所指出的，美國已經變得更加虛弱。這當然是關稅公告發布後地緣政治動態的經驗。我們開始看到會議、推廣和參與的步伐加快。

But as you would anticipate, a number of transactions were deferred and delayed as a result of the market turmoil. So we are more confident in what we're seeing in terms of the pipeline. But as you know, for that market, meetings, mandates turning into revenue can take a little bit of time. So I would describe it as cautiously optimistic.

但正如您所預料的那樣，由於市場動盪，許多交易被推遲和延遲。因此，我們對所看到的管道情況更有信心。但正如你所知，對於那個市場，會議、任務轉化為收入可能需要一點時間。因此我將其描述為謹慎樂觀。

Okay. That's helpful. That's it for me. Thank you.

好的。這很有幫助。對我來說就是這樣。謝謝。

Darko Mihelic, RBC Capital Markets.

Darko Mihelic，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Hi. Thank you. A question for Piyush, sort of two-fold in nature, I guess. One is, can you describe your exposure to tariff-related industries? And just out of curiosity, why not provide that detail in your deck?

你好。謝謝。我想，這是針對 Piyush 的一個問題，本質上來說有兩面。一是，您能否描述一下您對關稅相關產業的了解？只是出於好奇，為什麼不在你的牌組中提供這個細節呢？

Hi, Darko. So we've got disclosure on the loan portfolio in the deck. And as you know, it's a very well-diversified portfolio across sectors. We've obviously been doing a lot of scenario analysis and stress tests well before the US elections and continue with all of the tariff changes. So from a macro perspective, I think we are seeing the softness in consumer demand and business sentiment that has an impact overall to the broader economy.

你好，Darko。因此，我們在簡報中揭露了有關貸款組合的資訊。如您所知，這是一個跨行業的多元化投資組合。顯然，我們在美國大選之前就做了大量的情境分析和壓力測試，並繼續進行所有的關稅改革。因此，從宏觀角度來看，我認為我們看到消費者需求和商業信心的疲軟，這對整體經濟產生了影響。

But more directly to your question, we have analyzed the sectors. And the way we've done this is we've looked at our sectors that are higher risk, medium, low. And I would call those higher-risk sectors the ones you're reading about agriculture, auto manufacturing, lumber. And when you add those up, those are about 6% of our portfolio in the higher risk.

但更直接回答您的問題，我們已經分析了各個行業。我們這樣做的方式是，我們研究了高風險、中風險和低風險的行業。我認為那些高風險產業就是你們正在讀到的農業、汽車製造、木材等。如果將這些加起來，我們的投資組合中約有 6% 屬於高風險資產。

But I'd be remiss if I said that's all high risk, because really, the risk lies in individual files. So we've spent a lot of time with the teams reviewing our individual files. And like us, many of our clients are also safeguarding their interests. There's financial flexibility. Some people are changing the supply chains, getting ready for what's coming.

但如果我說這些都是高風險的話，那我就太失職了，因為實際上，風險在於單一文件。因此，我們花了很多時間與團隊一起審查我們的個人文件。和我們一樣，我們的許多客戶也在維護自己的利益。具有財務靈活性。有些人正在改變供應鏈，為即將發生的事情做好準備。

So I would actually say that the higher risk files within those high-risk industries is probably around 1% of our total exposure. It's a mix. Clients are going to be affected everywhere with what's going on. So there are some in the US and there are some in Canada.

所以我實際上想說的是，這些高風險行業中的高風險文件可能占我們總風險敞口的 1% 左右。這是一種混合。客戶將會受到正在發生的事情的影響。所以美國有一些，加拿大也有一些。

Okay. And what's the biggest industry in that 1% for your particular portfolio?

好的。那麼，對於您的特定投資組合而言，這 1% 中最大的行業是什麼？

The biggest pieces will be manufacturing because it's the manufacturing sector that's going to see the brunt of tariffs. These are low-margin industries, very stable. And so when you see tariffs that have been announced, if they came through, you'll see the biggest impact there because it impacts various pieces of their supply chain.

受關稅影響最大的將是製造業，因為製造業將首當其衝。這些都是低利潤產業，非常穩定。因此，當您看到已經宣布的關稅時，如果這些關稅得以實施，您將看到最大的影響，因為它會影響其供應鏈的各個部分。

Okay. Great. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。

Mario Mendonca, TD Securities.

馬裡奧門東卡，道明證券。

Good morning. Slightly different type of question, but it relates to the same themes, which is a less friendly regime in the US, political climate in the US. Now, I'm referring to this bill going through Congress that would impose materially higher taxes on residents like Canadians in the US, individuals, and corporates. And it relates to this digital tax that Canada has on US tech companies.

早安.問題類型略有不同，但涉及相同的主題，即美國不太友善的政權、美國的政治氣候。現在，我指的是國會正在審議的這項法案，該法案將對居住在美國的加拿大人、個人和企業等居民徵收更高的稅。這與加拿大對美國科技公司徵收的數位稅有關。

Now, it's entirely possible that this thing dies on the floor of Congress, but it's a meaningful risk and it matters to banks like BMO and other institutions with large US operations. What I'm asking here is, does BMO have a house view on how this plays out? Does this go away, or how do you address it if, in fact, the US does impose materially higher tax rates on Canadian corporations?

現在，這個法案完全有可能在國會被否決，但這是一個重大風險，對 BMO 等銀行以及其他在美國擁有大量業務的機構來說至關重要。我在這裡想問的是，BMO 對此事的後續發展有何看法？這種情況會消失嗎？或者，如果美國確實對加拿大公司徵收更高的稅率，您將如何應對？

So Mario, just like you, we are watching developments, and uncertainties are quite high on this topic. And as you know, the US process does not get finalized until the very last moment. And we just need to continue to watch. The outcomes are not certain to us enough to have a view today as to what it may mean for BMO. And when it's finalized, we obviously will form our perspective and what we need to do internally at BMO. But at this point, I don't have a good answer for you because of all these uncertainties.

所以馬裡奧，就像你一樣，我們正在關注事態發展，而且這個主題的不確定性相當高。如你所知，美國的進程直到最後一刻才能最終完成。我們只需繼續觀察。對於結果，我們今天還不夠確定，因此無法判斷其對 BMO 意味著什麼。當它最終確定後，我們顯然會形成我們的觀點以及我們在 BMO 內部需要做什麼。但目前，由於存在著許多不確定性，我還沒有一個好的答案給你。

Neither do I. One other sort of follow-up question to Doug's question. Piyush, Doug's asking about what manageable means in terms of higher PCLs. And it's the same sort of thing I'm interested in. What does manageable mean to BMO? Does it mean that the bank can continue to grow earnings even though higher PCLs emerge because of tariffs? Or does it certainly mean that it wouldn't impact the bank's capital strength? That, I treat as a given. But does manageable mean you can continue to grow through something like that? Help me understand what manageable means.

我也是。這是對 Doug 問題的另一個後續問題。Piyush，Doug 詢問就更高的 PCL 而言可管理意味著什麼。這也是我感興趣的事。對 BMO 來說，「可管理」意味著什麼？這是否意味著，儘管由於關稅導致個人所得稅率上升，但該銀行的獲利仍能繼續成長？或者說這一定不會影響銀行的資本實力？我認為這是一件理所當然的事。但可控是否意味著你可以透過這樣​​的事情繼續成長？幫助我理解可管理的意思。

Yeah. So the short answer is yes. We can continue to grow. Our capital ratios are healthy. Our client relationships, our client pipelines are healthy. So there's nothing that changes that story.

是的。所以簡短的回答是肯定的。我們可以繼續成長。我們的資本比率是健康的。我們的客戶關係、客戶管道都很健康。所以沒有什麼可以改變這個故事。

The manageable was to give you a perspective of the uncertainties in the environment. And so if we land exactly where we are today with a bulge reciprocal tariff and come in at a much lower number than announced, that would, because of the delay of the resolution and the softness in the economy in the interim, be a couple of basis points higher.

可行的方法是讓您了解環境中的不確定性。因此，如果我們按照今天的水平實施高額互惠關稅，並且最終的數字遠低於宣布的數字，那麼由於決議的推遲和在此期間經濟的疲軟，這個數字將會高出幾個基點。

So whether it's 1 or 2 or 3, that's the range we are thinking about. We're not going back to what you saw in 2024. The only difference that I've continued to caveat is, if nothing gets resolved and we are in this high uncertain environment and back to an April 2 kind of announcement, that, of course, you can see in our base case forecast, has a significant impact on Canadian and US economies.

所以無論是 1、2 還是 3，這都是我們正在考慮的範圍。我們不會回到 2024 年所看到的情況。我一直強調的唯一區別是，如果什麼問題都無法解決，我們就會處於高度不確定的環境中，回到 4 月 2 日的公告，當然，你可以在我們的基本預測中看到，這將對加拿大和美國經濟產生重大影響。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Lemar Persaud, Cormark Securities.

Lemar Persaud，Cormark 證券。

Thanks. So I'm wondering if we could kind of look through the impacts of the trade war because the messaging from your bank and peers seems one of cautious optimism that we could be moving past the trade war. So if you had to guess, does it feel like this recovery would be led by consumer or commercial clients? It's something I'm spending some time thinking about because it does feel like consumers would be exiting this period of trade uncertainty in kind of a much weaker state than we saw post-COVID. So any thoughts on that?

謝謝。所以我想知道我們是否可以看看貿易戰的影響，因為你們銀行和同行傳遞的訊息似乎是謹慎樂觀的，認為我們可能正在擺脫貿易戰。因此，如果您必須猜測的話，您是否覺得這次復甦將由消費者還是商業客戶引領？我花了一些時間思考這個問題，因為我確實感覺到消費者在走出這段貿易不確定時期時，狀態會比我們在疫情後看到的要弱得多。對此您有什麼看法嗎？

It's a tough -- it's Darryl, Lemar. It's actually a tough call. You're asking a very good question.

這很棘手——他是達裡爾，勒馬爾。這實際上是一個艱難的決定。你問了一個很好的問題。

I think when you look across Canada, you heard Piyush talk earlier about the outlook at the consumer level. We are seeing upticks in unemployment. We do expect to continue to see upticks in unemployment. And that puts a certain challenge on the household budgets, which can persist. You don't wave a magic wand over that situation and say trade wars are over and then all of a sudden everything's okay and then you see a quick rebound because some damage is done and it can persist. So we're watching that very carefully.

我想，當你放眼整個加拿大時，你會聽到皮尤什早些時候談論消費者層面的前景。我們看到失業率正在上升。我們確實預期失業率將持續上升。這給家庭預算帶來了一定的挑戰，而且這種挑戰可能會持續下去。你不可能揮動魔杖就能解決這種情況，然後說貿易戰結束了，然後突然間一切都好了，然後你就會看到快速反彈，因為一些損害已經造成，而​​且這種損害可能會持續下去。因此我們正在密切關注此事。

On the commercial side, it's actually a little bit mixed. So you'll have -- we talked about it in this call and in other places -- some businesses that are impacted, in some cases could be severely, but they're in the minority and those folks won't rebound quickly at all, as you and I know, but there are a whole bunch that will. And they're building capacity right now and waiting for demand to come back.

從商業方面來看，情況其實有點複雜。所以，我們在這次電話會議和其他地方都討論過這個問題，有些企業會受到影響，在某些情況下可能會受到嚴重影響，但他們是少數，而且這些人根本不會迅速反彈，正如你我所知，但還有很多企業會。他們目前正在建設產能並等待需求回升。

So if I had to guess what you'll end up seeing in that environment that you're hypothesizing around, Lemar, is you'll see some of the consumer businesses come back quickly, but some of them won't. And you'll see the same thing on the consumer side. You'll see a big sort of rebound of demand on the commercial side, while those that were particularly impacted and targeted will take a long time. And that's probably not what you're hoping for in terms of me telling you it's ones and zeros on your answer, but you have to decompose each of the portfolios and look at them individually.

因此，如果我必須猜測，在您所假設的環境中，您最終會看到什麼，萊瑪，您會看到一些消費者業務迅速復蘇，但有些則不會。你也會在消費者方面看到同樣的情況。你會看到商業方面的需求大幅反彈，而那些受到特別影響和針對的需求將需要很長時間。這可能不是你所希望的，因為我會告訴你答案是 1 和 0，但你必須分解每個投資組合併單獨查看它們。

No, that's helpful. And then if I may just tack on to Paul's question there, how do you feel about the loan growth prospects of Canada versus the US? And I'm trying to take this a step further. I'm talking about actual BMO loan growth here, because it really feels like given the timing of the closing of the Bank of the West deal, we never really got to fully appreciate the strength of the combined franchise. So what I'm asking is, like, if you had to look through a period of recovery, is it possible and plausible to expect stronger loan growth in the US just given that kind of set up between the timing of the closing of the Bank of the West deal that US loan growth should outperform Canada?

不，這很有幫助。然後，如果我可以繼續回答保羅的問題，您如何看待加拿大與美國的貸款成長前景？我正在嘗試更進一步。我在這裡談論的是 BMO 的實際貸款成長，因為感覺考慮到西部銀行交易完成的時間，我們從未真正充分認識到合併後的特許經營權的實力。所以我想問的是，如果你必須回顧一段復甦期，那麼，考慮到西方銀行交易完成的時間安排，美國貸款增長應該超過加拿大，是否有可能並且合理地預期美國貸款增長會更加強勁？

Yeah. That's possible, plausible. Of course, it is. If you kind of read through some of the things you've heard from my colleagues today, you can imagine a scenario where both economies kind of muddle through here for the next couple of quarters. I think what you're really asking is what does '26, '27 end up looking like from a balance sheet dynamic perspective.

是的。這是有可能的，而且很有道理。當然是了。如果您讀一下今天我的同事所說的一些內容，您就會想像出這樣一種情景：兩個經濟體在接下來的幾個季度都將勉強維持下去。我認為你真正想問的是，從資產負債表動態角度來看，26 年、27 年最終會是什麼樣子。

I don't think the US market freezes forever. And so there will be a release there. And when there's a release, we've said time and time again, we intend to fully participate in that release. And our positioning is very good for that relative to most.

我認為美國市場不會永遠凍結。因此那裡將會有一個發布。當有發佈時，我們已經一次又一次地說過，我們打算全力參與該發布。與大多數公司相比，我們的定位非常好。

I wouldn't go so far, though, Lemar, to say that that will come at a stark juxtaposition to what might happen in Canada, because there are different dynamics in Canada this time with the -- as I mentioned in my remarks, maybe we'll have a resolution on interprovincial trade barriers. Maybe we'll have a pretty significant build Canada infrastructure spend. I think those things will take time to evidence commercial activity underneath it. But they could come. So as I push myself out through '26 '27, different factors could produce loan growth in Canada as well.

不過，萊馬爾，我不會說這將與加拿大可能發生的情況形成鮮明對比，因為這次加拿大的情況有所不同——正如我在發言中提到的，也許我們會就省際貿易壁壘達成決議。也許我們將在加拿大基礎建設上投入相當大的資金。我認為這些事情需要時間來證明背後的商業活動。但他們可以來。因此，當我努力度過 26 至 27 年時，不同的因素也可能導致加拿大的貸款成長。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

Mike Rizvanovic, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Mike Rizvanovic。

Good morning. First one, just a quick one for Tayfun on the NIR and just if we could dig a bit deeper here. So the sequential decline was almost $300 million on the NIR overall on an adjusted basis. And correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the card -- the non-relationship card portfolio was only a small fraction of that.

早安.首先，讓我們來快速了解一下 Tayfun 在 NIR 上的表現，我們是否可以在這裡深入研究。因此，以調整後的標準來看，NIR 整體連續下降了近 3 億美元。如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我認為卡片 - 非關係卡組合只是其中的一小部分。

So in terms of where Q1 level was at, are you expecting that we sort of see this reflate back to Q1 levels? Or is Q1 a bit of an anomaly in terms of how strong it was and maybe you just sort of trend at the Q2 level for the second half of the year? I'm just trying to get some more granularity here, if you can provide it.

那麼，就 Q1 水平而言，您是否預計我們會看到這種復甦回升至 Q1 水平？或者就其強勁程度而言，第一季是否有些異常，而您或許只是按照第二季的水平來預測下半年的趨勢？如果您可以提供的話，我只是想在這裡獲得更多詳細資訊。

Yes, I do expect the second half of the year to actually be stronger than how you would interpret the quarter-over-quarter decline. The quarter-over-quarter decline does have certain elements, including some of the items in Capital Markets, as well as some of the items that we just mentioned, including the credit card sale and also lesser number of days. That's an important one.

是的，我確實預計下半年的表現實際上會比你解讀的季度環比下降表現更強勁。季度環比下降確實有一些因素，包括資本市場的一些項目，以及我們剛才提到的一些項目，包括信用卡銷售以及天數減少。這很重要。

That's actually -- it's not a small one. Our total revenue decline solely tied to days is over $200 million, not all in non-interest income, obviously, but a decent portion of that. So I would expect our non-interest income to go higher from here into Q3 as well as into Q4.

事實上——這不是一個小問題。我們與天數相關的總收入下降超過 2 億美元，顯然並非全部來自非利息收入，但其中相當一部分。因此，我預計我們的非利息收入從現在開始在第三季和第四季將會更高。

Okay, that's helpful. And then one quick one for Ernie. Just on the mortgage growth, a little bit weaker sequentially, I think about 0.5% higher. Anything you're seeing in the broker channel, we did have one of your peers that reported earlier suggest that there was a bit of spread pressure on that distribution channel. Are you seeing the same thing? And if so, is this part of the reason why you're maybe pulling back a bit on the RESL?

好的，這很有幫助。然後對厄尼說一句快話。僅就抵押貸款增長而言，環比略微減弱，我認為大約增長 0.5%。您在經紀管道中看到的任何情況，我們確實有一位同行早些時候報告說，該分銷管道存在一些價差壓力。你看到了同樣的事情嗎？如果是這樣，這是否是您在 RESL 上稍作退縮的原因之一？

Yeah, thanks for the question. Overall on RESL, if I think about quarter over quarter, we're about 1% up, and year over year, we're 6%. So we're seeing some strong growth. It's the market that, as you're well aware of, has really slowed down. Our broker channel is still performing as expected and bringing in that quality customer that is new to the housing market. So we're not seeing anything unusual there.

是的，謝謝你的提問。整體而言，就 RESL 而言，如果按季度計算，我們的成長幅度約為 1%，而按年計算，我們的成長幅度約為 6%。因此，我們看到了一些強勁的成長。如您所知，市場確實已經放緩。我們的經紀人管道仍然表現如預期，並吸引了新進入房地產市場的優質客戶。因此我們沒有發現任何異常情況。

Is the market overall more competitive? It's a competitive marketplace, and we're primarily -- our first job is renewals. Our second job is acquiring new customers that are in the mortgage market, particularly young profile that are in their first time home buyers. So I would say overall pleased with the growth and think hopefully as things get more constructive, we'll see a return back to some normality.

整個市場競爭是否更加激烈？這是一個競爭激烈的市場，我們的首要任務是續約。我們的第二項工作是獲取抵押貸款市場的新客戶，特別是首次購屋的年輕客戶。因此，我想說，總體而言，我對這種增長感到滿意，並且希望隨著事態變得更加建設性，我們將看到恢復正常。

But the prices are down and the sales are down and that's been consecutive for five months. So we think it'll turn, but not in any great amount for the back half of this year, but some slight performance. And we're seeing that even as we speak in the past couple of weeks, more listings. So more to come, but pleased with the broker channel overall.

但價格下降，銷量下降，這種情況已經連續五個月了。因此我們認為情況會發生轉變，但今年下半年不會有太大轉變，但會有一些輕微的表現。我們看到，就在過去幾週，上市數量增加。未來還會有更多，但總體而言，我對經紀管道感到滿意。

Okay. So you wouldn't flag any spread compression in that channel though?

好的。那麼，您不會標記該頻道中的任何價差壓縮嗎？

There's always competitive market across all the channels. So I don't think there's anything even more so than broker market than I would say just in general, whether it be direct digital or in our branch channel.

所有通路的市場總是競爭激烈。因此，我認為沒有什麼比經紀市場更重要，無論是直接數位還是我們的分支通路。

Got it. Thanks for the insights.

知道了。感謝您的見解。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you. We have no further questions registered at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Darryl White.

謝謝。目前我們沒有其他問題。現在我想將會議交還給 Darryl White。

Well, thank you, operator, and thank you all for your questions this morning.

好的，謝謝接線生，也謝謝大家今天早上的提問。

I think you saw today that our results for the quarter continue to position us well for the current dynamic environment and for growth going into 2026. In the meantime, we're continuing to build a strong, resilient organization that's well equipped to meet both the challenges and the opportunities of the future, and our focus is unchanged. It's on effective risk management, on digital transformation and client-centric innovation to drive our success.

我想大家今天已經看到，我們本季的業績繼續為我們在當前動態環境和 2026 年的成長奠定了良好的基礎。同時，我們正在繼續建立一個強大、有韌性的組織，以應對未來的挑戰和機遇，我們的重點沒有改變。有效的風險管理、數位轉型和以客戶為中心的創新推動我們的成功。

And with that, we look forward to speaking with you again in August. Thanks, everyone.

因此，我們期待八月再次與您交談。謝謝大家。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation.

謝謝。會議現已結束。此時請斷開您的線路。我們感謝您的參與。