Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Builders FirstSource fourth quarter 2024 and full year earnings conference call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加 Builders FirstSource 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約一小時，包括管理階層的發言和問答環節。（操作員指令）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Heather Kos, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations for Builders Resource. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Builders Resource 投資者關係資深副總裁 Heather Kos。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. With me on the call are Peter Jackson, our CEO; and Pete Beckmann, our CFO, the earnings press release and presentation are available on our website at investors.bldr.com. We will refer to the presentation during our call.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。和我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的執行長彼得傑克森 (Peter Jackson)；以及我們的財務長 Pete Beckmann 的收益新聞稿和簡報可在我們的網站 investor.bldr.com 上找到。我們將在通話期間參考該簡報。

The results discussed today include GAAP and non-GAAP results adjusted for certain items. We provide these non-GAAP results for informational purposes, and they should not be considered in isolation from the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

今天討論的結果包括根據某些項目進行調整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果。我們提供這些非 GAAP 結果僅供參考，不應將其與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標孤立地考慮。

You can find a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures were applicable and a discussion of why we believe they can be useful to investors in our earnings press release, SEC filings and presentation.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿、SEC 文件和簡報中找到這些非 GAAP 指標與相應 GAAP 指標的對帳表，以及我們認為它們對投資者有用的原因的討論。

Our remarks in the press release, presentation and on this call contain forward-looking and cautionary statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking statements section in today's press release and in our SEC filings for various factors that could cause our actual results to differ from forward-looking statements and projections.

我們在新聞稿、簡報和本次電話會議中的評論包含《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性和警示性聲明以及對未來結果的預測。請查看今天的新聞稿和我們的美國證券交易委員會文件中的前瞻性陳述部分，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述和預測不同的各種因素。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Peter.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給彼得。

Thank you, Heather and good morning, everyone. Before I get into my prepared remarks, on behalf of Builders FirstSource, I want to send our thoughts to all of those who have been impacted by the California wildfires. I'm proud of how we have come together as a company to support disaster relief efforts.

謝謝你，希瑟，大家早安。在我開始準備好的發言之前，我謹代表 Builders FirstSource 向所有受到加州山火影響的人們表達我們的慰問。我為我們公司能夠齊心協力支持救災工作而感到自豪。

We will work together with our partners to help communities rebuild in the years ahead. Our fourth quarter and full year results demonstrate our resilience and ability to drive results in the face of a complex operating environment while maintaining our focus on building for the future.

我們將與合作夥伴共同努力，幫助社區在未來重建。我們的第四季和全年業績證明了我們在複雜的營運環境中保持韌性和推動業​​績的能力，同時保持對未來建設的關注。

This begins with our strategic pillars as we show on slide 3. By continuing to invest in our value-added products and services, along with leveraging cutting-edge technology, we are addressing customer challenges and serving as a supplier of choice.

正如我們在投影片 3 中所展示的那樣，這始於我們的策略支柱。透過持續投資於我們的增值產品和服務，並利用尖端技術，我們正在解決客戶挑戰並成為首選供應商。

We have a fortress balance sheet and consistently generate strong cash flow over the cycle. Enabling us to remain disciplined and opportunistic as it pertains to capital allocation. Our investments today in organic growth opportunities and value-enhancing acquisitions position us to perform well in any environment.

我們擁有穩健的資產負債表，並在整個週期中持續產生強勁的現金流。使我們能夠在資本配置方面保持紀律和機會主義。我們目前在有機成長機會和增值收購方面的投資使我們在任何環境下都能表現良好。

Let's turn now to our full year 2024 performance on slide 4. The strength of our differentiated platform and our operational excellence initiatives drove a mid-teens adjusted EBITDA margin and a nearly 33% gross margin in 2024. Results this year are further proof that our success is driven by the dedication of our hardworking team members and the support of our customers.

現在讓我們來看看幻燈片 4 上的 2024 年全年業績。我們差異化平台和卓越營運措施的優勢推動了調整後 EBITDA 利潤率在 2024 年達到中等水平，毛利率接近 33%。今年的業績進一步證明，我們的成功得益於我們勤奮的團隊成員的奉獻精神和客戶的支持。

Turning into slide 5. I I'd like to share more detail on the execution of our strategy. Our strong organic growth engine is fueled by our investments in value-added solutions and digital tools. In 2024, we invested more than $75 million in our value-added facilities to address demand in our growing markets. This included opening two new truss manufacturing facilities, upgrading 19 truss facilities and enhancing 13 millwork locations.

翻到幻燈片 5。我想分享更多關於我們戰略執行的細節。我們強勁的有機成長引擎源自於我們對增值解決方案和數位工具的投資。2024 年，我們在加值設施上投資了超過 7,500 萬美元，以滿足不斷增長的市場需求。其中包括開設兩個新的桁架製造工廠、升級 19 個桁架工廠和改善 13 個木製品加工廠。

Our install sales increased by 8% year over year as we leverage our product expertise and help our customers progress along the value-added continuum. While we've always done install in some capacity, we have emphasized it in recent years by utilizing playbooks to expand into new markets and improve execution in existing ones.

由於我們利用我們的產品專業知識並幫助我們的客戶在增值過程中不斷進步，我們的安裝銷售額比去年同期增長了 8%。雖然我們一直以某種方式進行安裝，但近年來，我們利用劇本來擴展到新市場並提高現有市場的執行力，強調了這一點。

By growing install in a down market, I'm optimistic about the substantial opportunity for business going forward. In line with this optimism, adoption rates for our industry-leading digital platform are steadily climbing on the heels of consistent positive feedback from our customers.

透過在低迷的市場中增加安裝，我對未來業務的巨大機會充滿信心。本著這種樂觀態度，我們業界領先的數位平台的採用率在客戶持續積極的回饋下穩步上升。

I'm pleased that we were able to achieve $134 million in incremental digital sales in 2024, despite the challenging environment that has persisted for our target customers. Our focus on operational excellence resulted in $117 million in productivity savings in 2024. We accomplished this mainly through supply chain initiatives and more efficient manufacturing.

儘管我們的目標客戶面臨的環境依然充滿挑戰，但我很高興我們能夠在 2024 年實現 1.34 億美元的增量數位銷售額。我們注重卓越運營，在 2024 年實現了 1.17 億美元的生產力節省。我們主要透過供應鏈計劃和更有效率的製造來實現這一目標。

For instance, we were able to improve board foot per labor hour by 10% in truss and panel manufacturing. Not only do our productivity initiatives increase our efficiency, but they also drive additional revenue by enhancing available capacity and shortening lead times. We remain disciplined stewards of discretionary spending and are continuing to maximize operational flexibility.

例如，我們能夠將桁架和麵板製造中每工時板英尺的產量提高 10%。我們的生產力措施不僅提高了我們的效率，而且還透過增強可用產能和縮短交貨時間來增加收入。我們繼續嚴格控制可自由支配的開支，並繼續最大限度地提高營運靈活性。

We consolidated roughly 30 facilities in 2024, while maintaining our service levels to our customers with an on-time and in-full delivery rate of over 90%. Single-family starts pulled back as builders manage the pace of building in the face of affordability challenges and uncertainty around potential policy changes.

我們於 2024 年整合了約 30 個設施，同時維持了對客戶的服務水平，準時、全額交付率超過 90%。面對負擔能力挑戰和潛在政策變化的不確定性，建築商控制建造速度，導致獨棟住宅開工數下降。

As expected and communicated, Multifamily remains a headwind in muted activity. In response to lower volumes over the last year, we have taken steps to align capacity across our facilities, reduce head count and manage expenses.

正如預期和傳達的那樣，多戶型住宅在低迷的活動中仍然是一個阻力。為了因應去年銷售下降的情況，我們已採取措施調整各設施的產能、減少員工人數並管理費用。

On a normalized basis, multifamily represents about 9% to 10% of net sales and remains an attractive and profitable business for us. As we have signaled, multifamily will be a headwind again in 2025. To address the current environment and affordability challenges, builders continue to employ specs, smaller and simpler homes and interest rate buydowns to help buyers find affordable options.

按正常化標準，多戶型住宅約佔淨銷售額的 9% 至 10%，對我們來說仍然是一項有吸引力且有利可圖的業務。正如我們已經指出的，2025 年，多戶型住宅將再次成為阻力。為了應對當前的環境和負擔能力挑戰，建築商繼續採用規格、更小更簡單的房屋以及利率降低來幫助買家找到負擔得起的選擇。

Builders of all sizes are working to navigate complex market conditions, including regulatory, land development and infrastructure challenges. Smaller builders have been especially impacted by the availability of land and limited options to buy down rates.

各種規模的建築商都在努力應對複雜的市場條件，包括監管、土地開發和基礎設施挑戰。小型建築商尤其受到土地供應不足和購買首付比例選擇有限的衝擊。

We are strengthening our partnerships with customers by offering innovative solutions to address affordability challenges. Our comprehensive product portfolio allows us to provide flexible options, enabling builders to optimize their costs while maintaining quality.

我們正在透過提供創新解決方案來應對負擔能力挑戰，從而加強與客戶的合作夥伴關係。我們全面的產品組合使我們能夠提供靈活的選擇，使建築商能夠在保持品質的同時優化成本。

We continue to supply more lower-cost offerings in products like EWP, windows and doors to help alleviate affordability challenges. Although these actions to support our customers mean less sales and gross profit dollars for BFS, our margin profile remains strong, and we are very well positioned for growth when starts increase and structural headwinds begin to subside.

我們將繼續提供更多低成本的 EWP、窗戶和門等產品，以幫助緩解負擔能力的挑戰。儘管這些支持客戶的舉措意味著 BFS 的銷售額和毛利會減少，但我們的利潤率仍然強勁，而且當開工率增加、結構性逆風開始消退時，我們完全有能力實現成長。

Turning to M&A on slide 6. We continue to pursue high-return opportunities that augment our value-added product offerings and advance our leadership position in desirable geographies. Over the years, we have developed substantial improvement muscle memory to grow through M&A and have a proven track record of successful integration.

在第 6 張投影片上討論併購。我們將繼續尋求高回報機會，以增強我們的增值產品供應，並提升我們在理想地區的領導地位。多年來，我們透過併購實現了顯著改善，並擁有成功整合的良好記錄。

In 2024, we completed 13 acquisitions with aggregate prior year sales of roughly $420 million. In October, we acquired Douglas Lumber, which supplies building materials in New England. In November, we acquired Cleat Lumber, a leading provider of building materials on Long Island.

2024 年，我們完成了 13 項收購，去年的銷售額總計約 4.2 億美元。十月份，我們收購了在新英格蘭供應建築材料的Douglas Lumber。11 月，我們收購了長島領先的建築材料供應商 Cleat Lumber。

In addition to the acquisitions we completed in 2024, in early January, we acquired Alpine lumber. The largest independently operated supplier of building materials in Colorado and Northern New Mexico with 21 locations. Alpine's broad product portfolio includes prefabricated trusses, wall panels and mill work.

除了我們在 2024 年完成的收購之外，1 月初我們還收購了阿爾卑斯木材公司。科羅拉多州和新墨西哥州北部最大的獨立經營的建築材料供應商，擁有 21 家分支機構。Alpine 的廣泛產品組合包括預製桁架、牆板和木製品。

And in February, we acquired OCs lumber and building supplies, a leading supplier of lumber, building materials and installation services in Pennsylvania, Maryland and West Virginia. These acquisitions reinforce our commitment to invest in our strong value-added business through M&A.

今年 2 月，我們收購了 OC 木材和建築用品公司，該公司是賓夕法尼亞州、馬裡蘭州和西維吉尼亞州領先的木材、建築材料和安裝服務供應商。這些收購加強了我們透過併購投資強大增值業務的決心。

We are excited to welcome these talented new team members to the BFS family. Turning to slide 7. Our disciplined capital allocation strategy focuses on maximizing shareholder returns through organic growth, inorganic growth and share repurchases. In 2024, we deployed a total of $2.2 billion. We allocated $367 million to sustaining the business as well as ROI generating growth investments in value-added capacity and digital.

我們很高興歡迎這些才華橫溢的新團隊成員加入 BFS 大家庭。翻到幻燈片 7。我們嚴謹的資本配置策略專注於透過有機成長、無機成長和股票回購來實現股東回報最大化。2024年，我們總共部署了22億美元。我們撥款 3.67 億美元用於維持業務以及在增值能力和數位化方面產生成長的投資回報。

We spent $352 million on 13 acquisitions to expand our footprint into high-growth geographies and enhance our value-added offerings. And we executed opportunistic share repurchases of approximately $1.5 billion, removing roughly 7% of shares outstanding.

我們花費 3.52 億美元進行了 13 項收購，以擴大我們在高成長地區的業務範圍並增強我們的增值產品。我們也實施了價值約 15 億美元的機會性股票回購，回購了約 7% 的流通股。

Now let's turn to slide 8 and discuss the latest updates on our digital strategy. With our BFS digital tools, we are focused on creating value for our homebuilder customers and in doing so, further extending our industry leadership position and driving substantial organic growth.

現在讓我們翻到第 8 張投影片，討論一下我們的數位策略的最新更新。借助我們的 BFS 數位工具，我們專注於為我們的房屋建築商客戶創造價值，並在此過程中進一步擴大我們的行業領導地位並推動大幅的有機成長。

Despite the challenging market, we have seen continued adoption and growth with our target audience of smaller production builders in addition to interest from multiple top 200 builders. We continue to release enhancements that are improving the user experience and helping to drive adoption.

儘管市場充滿挑戰，但除了多家排名前 200 位的建築商表現出興趣之外，我們的目標受眾（小型生產建築商）的採用和成長仍然持續。我們將繼續發布增強功能，以改善用戶體驗並幫助推動採用。

Since launching about a year ago, we have seen nearly $1 billion of orders placed through our digital platform. Of which $134 million were incremental sales from existing and new customers.

自從大約一年前推出以來，我們已經看到透過我們的數位平台下達的訂單量接近 10 億美元。其中 1.34 億美元是來自現有和新客戶的增量銷售額。

We're pleased with our progress to date, and we expect additional incremental sales of approximately $200 million in 2025, as we grow wallet share and win new customers. I'm incredibly grateful to lead such a talented and hard-working team that makes a difference every day.

我們對迄今為止的進展感到滿意，隨著錢包份額的增加和新客戶的贏得，我們預計 2025 年的增量銷售額將增加約 2 億美元。我非常感激能夠領導這樣一支才華洋溢、勤奮工作、每天都在做出貢獻的團隊。

One shining example of our values is Bob Whitney in Isaka, Washington. Who recently celebrated 45 years with BFS. Bob began his journey with us as an administrative assistant, managing invoices on the location's first computer, a massive machine to fill a 20 by 20-foot room.

我們的價值觀的一個光輝典範就是華盛頓州伊薩卡的鮑伯‧惠特尼。他最近慶祝了與 BFS 合作的 45 週年。鮑伯以行政助理的身份開始加入我們，負責使用公司的第一台電腦管理發票，這是一台巨大的機器，佔滿一個 20 英尺乘 20 英尺的房間。

Fast forward to today, Bob, a senior designer is frequently cited by homebuilders and framers in the area is the key reason they choose our engineered wood products. His detailed designs, expertise and innovative approach to finding more efficient ways to accomplish tasks as have set a high standard. I'm proud of Bob and our countless other dedicated team members. We continually raise the bar on service to our customers and each other.

時至今日，資深設計師鮑伯 (Bob) 經常被該地區的房屋建築商和建築工人提及，這是他們選擇我們的工程木產品的主要原因。他的詳細設計、專業知識和尋找更有效的方式完成任務的創新方法都樹立了很高的標準。我為鮑伯和我們無數其他敬業的團隊成員感到自豪。我們不斷提高對客戶以及彼此的服務標準。

I'll now turn the call over to Pete to discuss our financial results in greater detail.

現在我將把電話轉給皮特，更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Our fourth quarter and full year results reflect our ability to execute our strategy by leveraging our exceptional operating platform and financial flexibility. Our fortress balance sheet, consistently strong cash flow generation over the cycle, and ability to prudently deploy capital to the highest return opportunities are positioning us for further success.

謝謝你，彼得，大家早安。我們的第四季和全年業績反映了我們利用卓越的營運平台和財務靈活性執行策略的能力。我們穩健的資產負債表、週期內持續強勁的現金流產生、以及審慎地將資本部署到最高回報機會的能力，為我們取得進一步的成功奠定了基礎。

Our scale and investments in innovation enable us to serve as a key partner to homebuilders and we have a clear line of sight to compound value creation over the long term. We believe we are well positioned for meaningful operating leverage into the recovery.

我們的規模和在創新方面的投資使我們能夠成為房屋建築商的重要合作夥伴，並且我們有明確的長期複合價值創造目標。我們相信，我們已做好準備，能夠在經濟復甦過程中發揮有意義的經營槓桿作用。

Let's begin by reviewing our fourth quarter performance on slides 9 and 10. Net sales decreased 8% to $3.8 billion, driven by lower core organic sales as well as commodity deflation. Partially offset by growth from acquisitions and one additional selling day.

讓我們先回顧一下第 9 張和第 10 張投影片上的第四季表現。淨銷售額下降 8% 至 38 億美元，主要原因是核心有機銷售額下降以及大宗商品通貨緊縮。部分被收購帶來的成長和一個額外的銷售日所抵銷。

The core organic sales decrease was driven by a 29% decline in multifamily amid muted activity levels against strong prior year comps. Additionally, single-family declined 7% amid lower value per start, while repair and remodel was roughly flat versus the prior year.

核心有機銷售額的下降是由於與去年同期強勁的銷售表現相比，多戶型住宅活動水平較低，導致其下降 29%。此外，由於單戶住宅開工價值較低，其價格下降了 7%，而維修和改造價格與前一年相比基本持平。

Value-added products represented 50% of our net sales during the fourth quarter and we're roughly balanced between manufactured products and window doors and millwork.

加值產品占我們第四季淨銷售額的 50%，我們在製成品和門窗及木製品之間大致保持平衡。

As we have shared on recent calls, there are three main variables reconciling single-family starts to our core organic sales. The first variable is the lag between permits and starts. Like Q3, this was less of a factor with construction times mostly back to normal for our larger customers.

正如我們在最近的電話會議中所分享的，有三個主要變數將單戶住宅開工量與我們的核心有機銷售額相協調。第一個變數是許可證和開工之間的滯後。與第三季一樣，這不是一個太大的影響因素，對於我們較大的客戶來說，施工時間基本上恢復正常。

On average, we expect a roughly 2-month lag between the single-family start and our first sale. Second, the value of the average home has fallen as size and complexity have decreased. Finally, we saw a slight normalization in selling margins of non-commodity products and the lapping of manufacturer price reduction.

平均而言，我們預計單戶住宅開建和首次銷售之間大約會間隔 2 個月。其次，隨著房屋面積和複雜程度的降低，普通房屋的價值也下降了。最後，我們看到非大宗商品銷售利潤率略微正常化，製造商降價的步伐也隨之減緩。

To summarize, although macro headwinds persist and there are less sales dollars available for start today, we remain the market leader in building products and are a trusted partner to our customers as they grapple with affordability challenges. For the fourth quarter, gross profit was $1.2 billion, a decrease of approximately 16% compared to the prior year period.

總而言之，儘管宏觀逆風持續存在，而且從今天開始可用的銷售額減少，但我們仍然是建築產品市場的領導者，並且是客戶在應對負擔能力挑戰時值得信賴的合作夥伴。第四季毛利為12億美元，較去年同期下降約16%。

Gross margins were 32.3%, down 300 basis points, primarily driven by single-family and multifamily margin normalization. As discussed previously, our exit velocity at the end of 2024 was approximately 31.5%, given normalization and competitive dynamics. Adjusted SG&A decreased approximately $35 million to $764 million, primarily attributable to lower variable compensation due to lower core organic net sales and intangible amortization expense, partially offset by acquired operations.

毛利率為 32.3%，下降 300 個基點，主要受單戶住宅和多戶住宅利潤率正常化的影響。如前所述，考慮到正常化和競爭動態，我們在 2024 年底的退出速度約為 31.5%。調整後的銷售、一般及行政開支減少約 3,500 萬美元至 7.64 億美元，主要由於核心有機淨銷售額下降和無形攤銷費用下降導致的可變薪酬降低，但被收購的業務部分抵銷。

On an annual basis, adjusted SG&A is approximately 30% fixed and 70% variable with volumes. Enabling flexibility during challenging periods. We are focused on carefully managing our SG&A and are well positioned to leverage our fixed costs as the market grows.

以年度計算，調整後的銷售、一般及行政開支約 30% 為固定，70% 則隨交易量而變動。在困難時期實現靈活性。我們專注於精心管理銷售、一般及行政費用，並隨著市場的成長充分利用我們的固定成本。

Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $494 million, down 28%, primarily driven by lower gross profit, partially offset by lower operating expenses after adjustments. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 12.9%, down 360 basis points from the prior year, primarily due to lower gross profit margins and reduced operating leverage.

調整後 EBITDA 約為 4.94 億美元，下降 28%，主要由於毛利下降，但調整後營業費用下降部分抵消了這一影響。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 12.9%，較前一年下降 360 個基點，主要由於毛利率下降和經營槓桿降低。

Adjusted EPS was $2.31, a decrease of 35% compared to the prior year. On a year-over-year basis, share repurchases enabled by our strong free cash flow generation, at roughly $0.15 per share for the fourth quarter.

調整後每股收益為 2.31 美元，較前一年下降 35%。與去年同期相比，我們強勁的自由現金流產生了股票回購，第四季的股票回購價格約為每股 0.15 美元。

Now let's turn to our cash flow, balance sheet and liquidity on slide 11. Our 2024 operating cash flow was $1.9 billion, a decrease of approximately $400 million, mainly attributable to lower net income. For 2024, we delivered higher-than-expected free cash flow of approximately $1.5 billion.

現在讓我們來看看第 11 張投影片上的現金流量、資產負債表和流動性。我們的 2024 年營運現金流為 19 億美元，減少約 4 億美元，主要歸因於淨收入下降。2024 年，我們實現了高於預期的約 15 億美元的自由現金流。

Our trailing 12 months free cash flow yield was approximately 9%, while operating cash flow return on invested capital was 22%. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was approximately 1.5 times. Excluding our ABL, we have no long-term debt maturities until 2030. At year end, our total liquidity was approximately $1.8 billion, consisting of $1.6 billion and net borrowing availability under the ABL and approximately $200 million in cash.

我們過去 12 個月的自由現金流收益率約為 9%，而投資資本的營運現金流回報率為 22%。我們的淨債務與調整後的 EBITDA 比率約為 1.5 倍。除 ABL 外，我們在 2030 年之前沒有長期債務到期。截至年底，我們的總流動資金約為 18 億美元，其中包括 16 億美元和 ABL 下的淨借款可用性以及約 2 億美元的現金。

Moving to capital deployment. Capital expenditures were $96 million in Q4 and $367 million for the year. We deployed approximately $90 million during Q4 on two acquisitions and $352 million on 13 acquisitions in 2024. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased roughly two million shares for approximately $345 million.

轉向資本部署。第四季的資本支出為 9,600 萬美元，全年資本支出為 3.67 億美元。我們在第四季投入了約 9,000 萬美元進行兩次收購，並在 2024 年投入了 3.52 億美元進行 13 次收購。第四季度，我們以約 3.45 億美元回購了約 200 萬股。

For the year, we repurchased 8.9 million shares for $1.5 billion. Since the inception of our buyback program in August 2021, we have repurchased 46.5% of total shares outstanding at an average price of $79.56 per share for $7.6 billion.

今年，我們以 15 億美元回購了 890 萬股。自 2021 年 8 月回購計畫啟動以來，我們已以平均每股 79.56 美元的價格回購了 46.5% 的總流通股，回購總額為 76 億美元。

We have approximately $500 million remaining on our $1 billion share repurchase authorization. We remain disciplined stewards of capital, and have multiple paths for value creation to maximize returns.

我們的 10 億美元股票回購授權中還剩餘約 5 億美元。我們仍然是嚴謹的資本管理者，並擁有多種創造價值的途徑來最大化回報。

On slide 12, we show our 2025 outlook. For full year 2025, our forecast assumes a flat single-family market and continued weakness in multifamily. As a result, we are guiding net sales in the range of $16.5 billion to $17.5 billion.

在投影片 12 上，我們展示了 2025 年的展望。對於 2025 年全年，我們預測單戶住宅市場將持平，而多戶住宅市場將繼續疲軟。因此，我們預計淨銷售額將在 165 億美元至 175 億美元之間。

We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin is forecasted to be in the range of 11.5% to 13%.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 在 19 億美元至 23 億美元之間。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計在 11.5% 至 13% 之間。

In line with our long-term target, we expect our 2025 full year gross margin to be in a range of 30% to 32%. We expect full year 2025 free cash flow of $600 million to $1 billion. The change from 2024 to 2025 is primarily due to a $500 million swing in working capital as we move from shrinking to growing sales as well as higher capital expenditures and interest expense.

根據我們的長期目標，我們預計 2025 年全年毛利率將在 30% 至 32% 之間。我們預計 2025 年全年自由現金流為 6 億至 10 億美元。2024 年至 2025 年的變化主要是由於我們的銷售額從萎縮轉為成長，營運資本發生了 5 億美元的波動，同時資本支出和利息支出也增加了。

Our cash flow guidance also includes our ongoing ERP investments. As we have said, we will start our ERP pilots later this year and have a plan to complete a phased implementation by 2027.

我們的現金流量指導還包括我們正在進行的 ERP 投資。正如我們所說，我們將在今年稍後啟動 ERP 試點，並計劃在 2027 年之前分階段完成實施。

Our 2025 outlook is based on several assumptions, including average commodity prices in the range of $380 to $430 per thousand board foot. This does not assume significant changes to existing duties and tariffs. Imports account for approximately 13% to 15% of our total purchasing spend.

我們對 2025 年的展望基於多項假設，包括每千板英尺 380 至 430 美元的平均商品價格。這並不意味著現有關稅和稅費會發生重大變化。進口約占我們總採購支出的13%至15%。

Comprised of 8% to 10% commodities and 3% to 5% noncommodities. Please refer to our earnings release and presentation for a list of key 2025 assumptions. As you all know, we do not typically give quarterly guidance. But we wanted to provide color for Q1 given extreme weather and macro volatility.

其中，8%至10%為商品，3%至5%為非商品。請參閱我們的收益報告和簡報，以了解 2025 年關鍵假設的清單。眾所周知，我們通常不提供季度指導。但考慮到極端天氣和宏觀波動，我們希望為第一季提供色彩。

We expect Q1 net sales to be between $3.5 billion and $3.8 billion. Quarter-to-date, we have lost sales of approximately $80 million due to extreme weather in the California wildfire at the start of the year.

我們預計第一季淨銷售額將在 35 億美元至 38 億美元之間。本季迄今為止，由於今年年初加州野火造成的極端天氣，我們的銷售額損失約為 8000 萬美元。

Q1 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $350 million and $400 million. While we expect our sales to rebound quickly as severe weather conditions subside, the areas impacted by the California wildfires will likely take much longer to recover.

第一季調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 3.5 億美元至 4 億美元之間。雖然我們預計隨著惡劣天氣條件的消退，我們的銷售將迅速反彈，但受加州野火影響的地區可能需要更長的時間才能恢復。

Turning to slides 14 and 15. As a reminder, our base business approach normalizes sales and margins for commodity volatility. This helps us to clearly assess the core strength of the business, where we have focused our attention on driving sustainable outperformance.

轉到投影片 14 和 15。提醒一下，我們的基本業務方法是使商品波動的銷售和利潤率正常化。這有助於我們清楚地評估業務的核心優勢，我們將注意力集中在推動永續的卓越績效上。

Given expected 2025 commodity prices near the historical 25-year average of $400 per 1,000 board foot, the base business guide is approximately the same as our total guidance. As I wrap up, I am confident in our ability to drive long-term growth by executing our strategy leveraging our exceptional platform and maintaining financial flexibility.

鑑於預計 2025 年商品價格接近歷史 25 年平均 400 美元/1,000 板英尺，基本業務指南與我們的整體指引大致相同。最後，我相信我們有能力透過執行我們的策略、利用我們卓越的平台並保持財務靈活性來推動長期成長。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Peter for some final thoughts.

說完這些，我會把電話轉回給彼得，讓他發表一些最後的看法。

Thanks, Pete. Let me close by reiterating that we remain focused on controlling the controllables. Our resilient business model enables us to win in any environment, given our scale, breadth of product offerings and investments in technology.

謝謝，皮特。最後，我要重申，我們仍然專注於控制可控因素。鑑於我們的規模、廣泛的產品供應和技術投資，我們富有彈性的商業模式使我們能夠在任何環境中獲勝。

I'm confident in the long-term strength of our industry due to the significant housing underbuild across our core markets. We are well positioned to capitalize on this driving growth for years to come as we execute our strategy.

由於我們核心市場的房屋建設嚴重不足，我對我們產業的長期實力充滿信心。隨著我們策略的實施，我們已做好準備，在未來幾年內充分利用這一強勁成長動能。

We continue to deepen our value proposition as a key partner to our customers by helping them solve problems through our investment in value-added products, digital tools and install services. Our proven growth playbook, fortress balance sheet and robust free cash flow generation through the cycle will help us continue to compound long-term shareholder (inaudible) We are making strategic investments today to enhance efficiency and drive sustainable growth for the future.

透過在加值產品、數位工具和安裝服務方面的投資，我們不斷深化作為客戶重要合作夥伴的價值主張，幫助客戶解決問題。我們經過驗證的成長策略、穩健的資產負債表和周期內強勁的自由現金流產生將幫助我們繼續為長期股東帶來複合成長（聽不清楚）我們今天正在進行戰略投資，以提高效率並推動未來的可持續成長。

Thank you again for joining us today. Operator, please open the call now for questions.

再次感謝您今天的參與。接線員，請立即打開電話以詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

(操作員指示) 巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

A couple of questions on the outlook. So organic revenues, core organic in 2025, I think you're speaking to a very low single-digit decline if I back out the M&A, correct me if I'm wrong. But I wanted to get a sense for what you're thinking on some of those variables that you mentioned earlier that impacted the business in 2024, the declining home sizes in the value of home, some of the vendor price reductions.

關於前景的幾個問題。因此，如果我放棄併購，我認為你所說的有機收入、2025 年的核心有機收入將出現非常低的個位數下降，如果我錯了，請糾正我。但我想了解您對之前提到的影響 2024 年業務的一些變數的看法，包括房屋面積下降、房屋價值下降、一些供應商價格下降。

I think you called out still seems like a bit of a headwind in Q4. So just wanted to get a sense if you're seeing any signs of stabilization across those variables and how those are contemplated in the guide?

我認為您所說的第四季似乎仍有點逆風。所以只是想了解一下，您是否看到這些變數有穩定的跡象，以及指南中是如何考慮這些變數的？

Thanks, Matt. Maybe I'll frame it and let Pete fill in any details that I missed. But what I would tell you is that broadly the market is pretty stable at a level below where we would like.

謝謝，馬特。也許我會把它裝裱起來，讓皮特填補我遺漏的任何細節。但我想告訴你的是，整體而言，市場相當穩定，處於低於我們預期的水平。

I think that as you listen to the builders, we're hearing a lot of the same things, obviously, that they're seeing in the broader market or in the broader public discussions that they're having. There is a battle that's going on with affordability. We're all engaged in it and trying to make sure that we find ways to deliver homes that people can actually acquire.

我認為，當你聽建築商說話時，我們顯然會聽到很多相同的事情，這些事情是他們在更廣泛的市場或更廣泛的公開討論中看到的。關於負擔能力的鬥爭正在進行中。我們都參與其中，並努力確保找到方法為人們提供真正能夠購買的住房。

And it's been a bit of a rocky road. Interest rates haven't helped. Builders have been modulating their build pace in order to maintain inventories at a reasonable level. Since by all accounts, they've done a pretty good job of it, but that's put us in this rather stagnant stable, but lower than we would like level. I think that continues.

這條路有點坎坷。利率沒有起到幫助作用。建築商一直在調整建造速度，以將庫存維持在合理水平。從各方面來看，他們在這方面都做得相當不錯，但這卻使我們處於相當停滯的穩定狀態，但低於我們希望的水平。我認為這種情況還會持續下去。

Some puts and takes around starts, some puts and takes around completions, but that's been the storyline. And we continue to see that on the single-family side. Multifamily, it's down. I would say it's been leveling out and stable like we've talked about.

有些事情發生在開始時，有些事情發生在完成時，但這就是故事情節。我們在獨戶住宅方面繼續看到這種情況。多戶型住宅數量下降了。我想說，就像我們談論的那樣，它已經趨於平穩和穩定。

Unfortunately, again, at a fairly low level, having quite seen the recovery and the run that I think we're all hoping for. Maybe that's just dependent on rates as people say, we'll see Pete, I don't know sure what I missed.

不幸的是，我們再次處於相當低的水平，我們已經看到了我們都希望看到的復甦和運行。也許正如人們所說，這只是取決於利率，我們會看到皮特，我不知道我錯過了什麼。

Yes. So regarding the average home size, we're seeing that start to level out. It's still downward pressure, consistent with what the public builders have communicated. They're seeing some I would say, mix toward a smaller home, but it's very -- it's more modest than it has been over the past years. As Peter mentioned with the multifamily, that's included in our core economic business.

是的。因此，就平均房屋面積而言，我們看到其開始趨於平穩。這仍然是一種下行壓力，與公共建築商所傳達的訊息一致。我想說，他們看到一些人住在較小的房子裡，但它比過去幾年更加樸素。正如彼得所提到的多戶住宅，這是我們的核心經濟業務的一部分。

And we indicated last quarter that we were going to see about $400 million to $500 million headwind in sales really in the first half of this year as we continue to lap the prior year comps. So that's included in the core organic as we look forward through the year.

我們在上個季度就曾表示，由於我們的銷售額持續超過去年同期，今年上半年我們的銷售額將面臨約 4 億至 5 億美元的逆風。因此，這將被納入我們全年展望的核心有機內容中。

Okay. Perfect. Very helpful. And then I guess jumping down to the gross margin. Obviously, fourth quarter came in above the guide, and you're calling for that 30% to 32%.

好的。完美的。非常有幫助。然後我想毛利率就會下降。顯然，第四季的成長高於預期，而你預期成長率為 30% 至 32%。

This year, in the year where starts are still fairly well below that normalized range. So -- is that -- you talked about that mix of higher-margin products, maybe it's lower value, but like EWP solving challenges for builders.

今年的開工量仍遠低於正常範圍。那麼 — — 您談到了利潤率較高的產品組合，也許價值較低，但就像 EWP 為建築商解決挑戰一樣。

Is that piece primarily with surprising you to the upside on the gross margin? Or as we look out to this year is maintaining that margin really where the priority is? Or does it make sense, in some cases, to be more aggressive with share?

這部分是否主要讓您感到驚訝於毛利率的上升？或者我們展望今年，維持這項利潤率真的是首要任務嗎？或者在某些情況下，更積極地分享是否有意義？

That's a great question. It's a fine line and a balancing act that we deal with every day. Our exit velocity, just as a reminder, was around 31.5%, even though our Q4 margins were a bit higher our exit velocity was still around that 31.5%. And we see continued competitive pressures from the single-family side as we continue through 2025. Right now, given our current assumptions, we believe the 30% to 32% range is a reasonable range.

這是一個很好的問題。這是我們每天都要面對的微妙的界線和平衡行為。提醒一下，我們的退出速度約為 31.5%，儘管我們的第四季利潤率略高，但我們的退出速度仍然在 31.5% 左右。到 2025 年，我們仍會看到來自獨戶住宅的持續競爭壓力。目前，根據我們目前的假設，我們認為 30% 到 32% 的範圍是合理的範圍。

Now if something changes from the assumptions, we'll have to evaluate it. But right now, we're seeing the strength in our value-added mix continue to help our margin profile. And as we go -- come out of the seasonal lows of Q4 and Q1, seeing that mix strength from value-add continuing to support our margin profile.

現在，如果某些事情與假設不符，我們就必須對其進行評估。但目前，我們看到增值組合的優勢持續幫助我們提高利潤率。隨著我們走出第四季和第一季的季節性低谷，我們看到增值帶來的混合實力繼續支撐我們的利潤率。

Yes. I mean we're seeing the pressure you would expect of an industry below normal in terms of total starts. And I think what we've baked in here is our desire, our intent, and I think our proven ability to protect share and manage margins in a thoughtful way. got to stay in the market. But we think what we've laid out is a plan that allows us to do that to protect our share to be aggressive and make sure we're competitive but to still demonstrate, I would say, a very healthy margin profile overall.

是的。我的意思是，從總開工量來看，我們看到一個產業面臨的壓力低於正常。我認為，我們在這裡所體現的是我們的願望、我們的意圖，以及我們已證明的以深思熟慮的方式保護份額和管理利潤的能力。必須留在市場。但我們認為，我們制定的計劃可以讓我們做到這一點，以積極進取的態度保護我們的份額，確保我們的競爭力，但總體而言，我還要說，我們仍然可以展示出非常健康的利潤狀況。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Mike Dahl。

Just a follow-up on the gross margins. with the exit rate comment on 31.5%, back to the envelope, it seems like maybe the the 1Q guide implies something closer to 30% to 31.5%, maybe a little bit lower than that exit rate -- but can you just talk a little bit more about what's really embedded in 1Q and how you see the progression through the year in gross margins?

只是對毛利率的追蹤。關於 31.5% 的退出率評論，回到正題，似乎第一季度的指導意見可能暗示更接近 30% 到 31.5% 的數字，可能比這個退出率稍微低一點——但您能否再多談一下第一季度的實際情況，以及您如何看待全年毛利率的進展？

So Mike, what I can tell you is we're seeing that continued normalization from the multifamily as we we're exiting the year and the competitive pressure on the single-family side, especially in the seasonal lows, having further pressure on the margins in Q1 not to a significant degree, but some degree from that exit velocity. We see that really being the entry point to the year and have some of that mix built in from the rest of the year to help keep that margin in the midpoint of what we guided.

所以麥克，我可以告訴你的是，我們看到，在年底之際，多戶型住宅繼續正常化，而單戶型住宅方面的競爭壓力，特別是在季節性低迷時期，對第一季度的利潤率造成了進一步的壓力，雖然程度不大，但在一定程度上受到了退出速度的影響。我們認為這確實是今年的切入點，並將今年剩餘時間的部分內容納入其中，以幫助將這一利潤率保持在我們指導水平的中間點。

I guess the only thing I'd add to that is, if you think about it at a higher level, we have been focused on the 2025 bits, right? So at the beginning of the year, you frequently see a lot of builders coming out and saying, okay, here we're going to set up for the year.

我想我唯一要補充的是，如果你從更高的層次來考慮，我們一直專注於 2025 年，對嗎？因此，在年初，你經常會看到很多建築商出來並說，好吧，我們要在這裡為新的一年做準備。

Let's put out our big bids, let's work hard to set things up for the year. We've been engaged very heavily in that, as you might imagine. It's given us a sense where the year is starting out and trying to give you that with our exit velocity. That's our sense of it.

讓我們提出我們的大出價，讓我們努力為今年做好準備。正如您所想像的，我們已深入地投入其中。它讓我們了解新的一年從哪裡開始，並試圖透過我們的退出速度給你這種感覺。這就是我們的感覺。

So I think it gives us a good flow into the beginning of the year for the core business. Layered on top of that is all of that lapping of the final throws of multifamily in the first half of this year that Pete referred to. So those are the two aspects of what we're looking at as we build out the forecast and give the guide.

所以我認為這會為我們年初的核心業務帶來良好的發展。除此之外，還有皮特提到的今年上半年多戶型住宅的最後衝刺。因此，這是我們在製定預測和提供指南時考慮的兩個方面。

Okay. That's helpful. And that segues into my other follow-up, which is about the comments you share competitive dynamics, you've obviously been very selective in terms of the type of business and margin that you pursue over the last couple of years, it sounds like maybe a little bit more focused on share, which maybe means participating in some of the commodity dynamics a little bit more.

好的。這很有幫助。這就引出了我的另一個後續問題，即關於您分享的競爭動態的評論，過去幾年來，您在選擇業務類型和利潤率方面顯然非常挑剔，聽起來您可能更注重份額，這可能意味著更多地參與一些商品動態。

Maybe can you just help us understand when you make that comment are you looking to hold share in commodities and still grow share in your value add? How would you would you characterize the goals in terms of share for this year and where you need to be most competitive?

也許您能否幫助我們理解，當您發表該評論時，您是否希望持有大宗商品的份額，同時仍增加增值的份額？您如何描述今年的份額目標以及您需要在哪些方面最具競爭力？

Sure. Just I guess for context, I do want to describe how I see the trend over the past couple of years. When we came out of the big COVID -- build push there was -- they were across the board, elevated margins, elevated volumes elevated everything. We've been talking about normalization forever to the point where all of us are a little tired of using the word. Unfortunately, I don't think we're done.

當然。我猜為了說明背景，我確實想描述一下我對過去幾年趨勢的看法。當我們走出大規模的新冠疫情時，我們大力推進建設，他們全面提高了利潤率，提高了銷量，提升了一切。我們一直在談論正常化，直到我們所有人都有點厭倦使用這個詞。不幸的是，我認為我們還沒有完成。

I think what we saw were waves of normalization that have flowed through this industry via the individual categories. So right out of the gate, you saw a large amount of normalization in the lumber sheet goods category. You saw normalization in price, and then you saw a normalization in margins as the competition return to what we would consider to be normal levels.

我認為，我們看到的是透過各個類別貫穿整個產業的正常化浪潮。因此一開始，您就會看到木材板材類別的大量標準化。您會看到價格正常化，然後您會看到利潤率也正常化，因為競爭回到了我們認為的正常水平。

We talked a little bit about what we saw in that in the share battle and what we were doing. We thought we lost a little. I would tell you right now, I feel pretty good about where we are. I think the team has done a nice job of responding and finding equilibrium and where margins needed to be. We have seen that flow through the other categories.

我們稍微談論了我們在份額爭奪戰中看到的情況以及我們正在做的事情。我們以為我們損失了一點。我現在就可以告訴你，我對我們現在的狀況感到非常滿意。我認為團隊在響應和尋找平衡以及所需的利潤方面做得很好。我們已經看到該流程流經其他類別。

And we've talked a little bit -- Mike, you and I have talked about why has it been so difficult to forecast margins. What I would tell you is because the timing of how those normalizations have occurred has been a bit different than we anticipated.

我們討論了一下——麥克，你和我討論過為什麼預測利潤率如此困難。我想告訴你的是，這些正常化發生的時間與我們預期的有點不同。

So I think what we're seeing now and have over the last year is the completion of that, right? The normalization of those individual categories and the price versus share battle that ensues in each one in order to find equilibrium I think we're closer to the end than the beginning.

所以我認為我們現在看到的以及去年所看到的已經完成了，對嗎？這些單一類別的正常化，以及為了找到平衡而在每個類別中發生的價格與份額之爭，我認為我們更接近終點而不是起點。

But that's where we're talking about now in the other categories, even more so, I would say, than lumber and lumber sheet finding that balance and protecting that share in a way that we feel like we're able to have good value for our customers, but still protect where we are, so that is the growth returns, we're able to take advantage of our frankly, superior capacity and capabilities to really show outsized returns for investors.

但這就是我們現在談論的其他類別，我想說，比起木材和木材板材，我們更需要找到平衡點並保護這一份額，讓我們覺得我們能夠為客戶提供良好的價值，但仍然保護我們的現狀，所以這就是增長回報，我們能夠利用我們坦率的、卓越的產能和能力，真正為投資者帶來超額回報。

John Lovallo, UBS.

瑞銀的約翰·洛瓦洛。

Maybe starting off again with the first quarter outlook, I mean, it seems to be a number of I guess, unusual items, there's the fires, weather, I think there's one less selling day as well. You framed the quarter-to-date impact, I believe, from weather in the fires.

也許從第一季的展望開始，我的意思是，我猜似乎有很多不尋常的事情，例如火災、天氣，我認為銷售日也少了一天。我認為，您概括了本季迄今的影響，其原因在於火災的天氣因素。

But can you help us think about how you're thinking about that for the full quarter for each of those buckets? And maybe can you help us bridge from that 10.3% implied EBITDA margin in the first quarter to the full year range of 11.5% to 13%?

但是，您可以幫助我們思考一下，對於每個桶，您對整個季度的情況是如何考慮的嗎？也許您能幫助我們將第一季的隱含 EBITDA 利潤率從 10.3% 提高到全年的 11.5% 到 13% 之間嗎？

Yes. So the first quarter is definitely feeling the effects of the severe weather. We had a foot of snow down in the Gold Port Korea through Emerald Coast and that's unusual. We're not used to seeing that. So lost multiple days of business from that extreme weather in the East and South.

是的。因此，第一季肯定受到了惡劣天氣的影響。從韓國黃金港到翡翠海岸都下了一英尺厚的雪，這是很不尋常的。我們不習慣看到這種情況。因此，東部和南部的極端天氣導致多日的業務損失。

We expect that to come back. It's a matter of time as the builders are able to pick up momentum and work through it in the seasonal low. So that $80 million impact that we had outlined in the prepared remarks is something that we do expect to get back, but it may take longer than Q1 to get it all back.

我們期待這種情況能夠再次發生。這只是時間問題，因為建築商能夠在季節性低迷期積聚力量並克服困難。因此，我們確實希望收回我們在準備好的評論中概述的 8000 萬美元的影響，但可能需要比第一季更長的時間才能收回全部影響。

As far as the California wildfires, it's not a huge immediate impact in Q1, but for the full year, it's going to have a lingering effect. So it will be something we continue to monitor as we work through the year. And then the one last selling day, that's just a simple math equation. I think you understand that one. And we are looking through the full year on what we believe the year is going to deliver as we go through it.

就加州山火而言，它不會對第一季造成巨大的直接影響，但對全年而言，它將產生持續的影響。因此，我們將在全年工作中持續監測這種情況。然後是最後一個銷售日，這只是一個簡單的數學等式。我想你明白這一點。我們正在展望全年，思考這一年將會發生什麼事。

And we start to see the churn a bit in Q2 where we start passing those negative comps and seeing continued, I would say, organic growth through the back part of the year in conjunction with the contributions from the acquisitions we've completed. So as we indicated in our press release regarding Alpine, their trailing 12-month sales is roughly $500 million.

我們在第二季開始看到一些客戶流失，我們開始擺脫那些負面的比較，並看到持續的自然成長貫穿今年下半年，這得益於我們完成的收購帶來的貢獻。正如我們在 Alpine 的新聞稿中所指出的，他們過去 12 個月的銷售額約為 5 億美元。

But we also have the benefit of the 13 acquisitions we completed in 2024, where we have stub periods that we haven't lapped yet that are going to contribute to overall sales growth. And as Peter mentioned, we are targeting $200 million of additional incremental sales from our digital platform in 2025.

但我們也受惠於 2024 年完成的 13 項收購，其中我們擁有尚未重疊的存根期，這些存根期將有助於整體銷售成長。正如彼得所提到的，我們的目標是到 2025 年透過我們的數位平台實現 2 億美元的額外增量銷售額。

So all those things added up as we're seeing some of the growth in sales. And I already mentioned the multifamily headwind that we're going to continue to have to lap and compare it to on the comps as well as some of the margin normalization, which is a price that will have a pressure on the top line.

所以所有這些因素加起來，我們就看到了銷售額的成長。我已經提到了我們將繼續應對的多戶型住宅逆風，並將其與其他同類產品進行比較，以及一些利潤率正常化，這種價格將對營收造成壓力。

And John, just to -- I know you know, but to reinforce for the others on the call, is easily by far, our weakest quarter from a sales perspective. distortions related to weather and fires have an outsized impact on our leverage and on our fall through. So just to keep that in mind as you're doing the analysis.

約翰，我知道你知道，但為了向電話中的其他人強調，從銷售角度來看，這是我們迄今為止最薄弱的季度。與天氣和火災有關的扭曲對我們的槓桿作用和跌幅產生了巨大影響。因此，在進行分析時只需記住這一點。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just in terms of the expected $500 million working capital swing in 2025, can you just help us think about the high end and the low end of the sales range. I mean at the low end of the sales range, it seems like sales could actually be pretty flat year over year. I mean, how would you think about that working capital swing at the high and low end?

好的。這很有幫助。那麼，就 2025 年預計的 5 億美元營運資本變動而言，您能否幫助我們考慮一下銷售範圍的高端和低端。我的意思是，在銷售範圍的低端，銷售額似乎實際上比去年同期持平。我的意思是，您如何看待營運資本的高端和低端波動？

It will moderate, respectively. Really, the cash flow is a function of how you exit the year. So it will be more skewed toward the exit rate from a sales velocity at that point compared to the prior year. It's just a point-to-point measurement. And as we mentioned, we were able to out form our free cash flow guidance in 2024.

將會分別緩和。實際上，現金流取決於你如何結束這一年。因此，與前一年相比，那時的銷售速度將更偏向退出率。這只是一個點對點的測量。正如我們所提到的，我們能夠在 2024 年超越我們的自由現金流指導。

So we did have a little bit of pull forward into the '24 results. Roughly $200 million that was recognized in '24 that we had -- I would say originally thought it was going to be in '25. So some of that's sloshing between the years. is the impact of the outsized change year over year.

因此，我們確實對 24 年的結果有了一點的展望。我們在 2024 年確認了大約 2 億美元 — — 我原本以為這會是在 2025 年。因此其中一些是在幾年之間變動的。是逐年巨大變化的影響。

Charles Perron-Piche, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的查爾斯‧佩隆-皮許 (Charles Perron-Piche)。

I guess, first, I want to talk about the product mix shift within your multifamily business. as you look for multifamily starts for the contract this year, do you see risks of more degradation in your value-added content in there? And how is this factoring your current guiding expectations for your future for the business?

我想先談談你們多戶型業務中的產品結構轉變。當您尋找今年合約中多戶型開工量時，您是否認為其中的增值內容有進一步下降的風險？這對您目前對未來業務的指導期望有何影響？

Yes. Multifamily is a great product category for us, right? As a market segment, the majority of it is value add. So when we see declines in sales, it is disproportionately an impact on those value-add product categories, primarily trust and to work, those are both integrated into our guides and our forecast for the full year.

是的。對我們來說，多戶型是一個很棒的產品類別，對嗎？作為一個細分市場，其大部分都是增值的。因此，當我們看到銷售額下降時，這會對那些增值產品類別產生不成比例的影響，主要是信任和工作，這些都已納入我們的指南和全年預測中。

So we have considered it. Got a fairly high degree of confidence in our forecast just given the amount of forward visibility we have, in those categories given the backlog because of the types of projects and how far we can see.

因此我們已經考慮過了。考慮到我們擁有的前瞻性，考慮到由於項目類型而積壓的類別以及我們所能看到的程度，我們對我們的預測有相當高的信心。

Got it. No, that's good color. And then the new administration has been vocal about the stand on potential tariffs and labor and immigration policies. I guess against that, how are you positioning the business against potential tariffs across your portfolio?

知道了。不，那顏色很好。新政府對潛在的關稅、勞工和移民政策的立場一直直言不諱。我想，針對這種情況，您如何定位您的業務以應對整個投資組合中潛在的關稅？

Are you making any changes for inventory management, for example, and if we were to get labor pressures in the construction industry, what do you think could be the repercussions for BLDR and builders willingness to use value-added content and your installed services?

例如，您是否對庫存管理做出了任何改變？

New administration, I hadn't heard now. Just kidding. Just kidding. Yes. So there's a lot going on, right?

新政府，現在我還沒聽說。只是在開玩笑。只是在開玩笑。是的。所以有很多事情發生，對吧？

The tariff world, as we described, about 15% of our total sales are exposed to potential tariffs, given that it's not US, of that, in the high single to 10% range is in that commodity product category. So for us, what we're doing differently, not much, right?

正如我們所描述的，在關稅領域，我們總銷售額的約 15% 面臨潛在關稅，鑑於它不在美國，其中，高達 10% 的關稅屬於該商品產品類別。所以對我們來說，我們所做的事情不同，並沒有太多，對嗎？

The dynamic around manager and the flow of product is something that we are disciplined about. And given our lack of visibility into what the actual outcome is going to be, we've been pretty cautious about taking a position or changing our inventory levels in response. I think that there's some optimism that there will be thoughtfulness around the potential impact on housing.

我們對經理周圍的動態和產品流動有著嚴格的要求。由於我們無法預見實際結果，因此我們對採取相應措施或改變庫存水準持非常謹慎的態度。我認為，人們樂觀地認為，人們將會認真考慮這對住房的潛在影響。

But we'll see. We've always had a tariff regime on that Canadian Softwood, that's not new. That was already expected to reset a bit higher this year based on the normal process there. But if there are significantly higher tariffs, if 25% were to be layered on top that's pretty dramatic. That could be a 65% tariff.

但我們會看到。我們一直對加拿大軟木實行關稅制度，這並不是什麼新鮮事。根據那裡的正常進程，預計今年這一數字將會略有上升。但如果關稅大幅提高，甚至加徵 25%，那就太驚人了。這可能是65%的關稅。

While a modest percentage of what we do, we have seen in the past that be a broader impact, meaning just because the Canadian wood goes up, the US wood will go up a bit as well. In short, we don't like it. Any barrier or additional problem for housing right now, we think it's a net negative. It will certainly be a tailwind to our sales per unit in the commodity space, but we think it will likely limit starts and that's bad overall on a net basis.

雖然我們所做的事情只佔很小的比例，但我們過去看到它會產生更廣泛的影響，這意味著僅僅因為加拿大木材價格上漲，美國木材價格也會上漲一點。簡而言之，我們不喜歡它。我們認為，目前住房面臨的任何障礙或額外問題都會產生負面影響。這肯定會對我們在商品領域的單位銷售產生推動作用，但我們認為這可能會限制開工量，從淨值來看，這總體來說是不好的。

The similar answer around immigration I think one of the things that Builders FirstSource has done better than anybody else is leaning into this idea of offering value-added products, which is essentially just finding ways to take skilled labor off the job site.

關於移民問題的回答也大致類似，我認為 Builders FirstSource 做得比其他任何人都好的事情之一就是傾向於提供增值產品，這本質上就是想方設法將熟練勞動力從工作現場帶走。

We have a great portfolio of products that do that. We think we'll be advantaged if immigration were to tighten an already tight labor market in that skilled area, we think we'll be more advantaged than anyone else. The downside is we still think net-net, any severe impact or radical impact on the labor force would be bad for the industry and bad for affordability, which is bad for starts and we don't like it.

我們擁有一系列可實現此目標的產品。我們認為，如果移民能夠使該技術領域本已緊張的勞動力市場更加緊張，我們將比其他人更具優勢。缺點是，我們仍然認為，任何對勞動力的嚴重影響或根本影響都會對產業和負擔能力造成不利影響，這對開工不利，我們不喜歡這樣。

So we think the trend is there. We think we're ready. We think we're going to win. But we sure hope that there is some thoughtfulness around how it's executed in the market, both in tariffs and in immigration.

因此我們認為這種趨勢是存在的。我們認為我們已經準備好了。我們認為我們會贏。但我們確實希望，對於如何在市場上執行這項政策，無論是在關稅方面還是在移民問題上，都能得到深思熟慮。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

Just thinking about some of the assumptions embedded in the 2025 guidance at the '23 Investor Day, in some of the long-term targets you laid out, you were assuming 4% market outgrowth from share gains. Just how are you thinking about that for 2025?

只要思考一下 23 年投資人日 2025 年指引中所包含的一些假設，在您列出的一些長期目標中，您假設市佔率成長 4%。您對於 2025 年有什麼看法？

Well, I would say that the '26 targets based on what the market has done and the way things have played out, they're not unachievable, but it sure is a long put from here. I think the dynamics around that around the share gain that would go along with that are influenced by that weak market. I think it changes the competitive dynamics. It changes a lot of things.

嗯，我想說，根據市場的表現和事態的發展，26 個目標並非無法實現，但距離現在還有很長的路要走。我認為，伴隨這種情況而來的股價上漲的動態受到了疲軟市場的影響。我認為它改變了競爭態勢。它改變了很多事情。

For 2025, our share gain expectations are pretty modest. I think they really center around what we think we can do in the digital space. And I think the rest of what we're trying to accomplish is really defending our share with a manageable margin impact.

對於 2025 年，我們的份額成長預期相當溫和。我認為它們真正關注的是我們認為我們可以在數位空間中做什麼。我認為，我們試圖完成的其餘任務實際上是在可控的利潤率影響下捍衛我們的份額。

That's really helpful. Then the other question I have is just, you mentioned install earlier. Can you just talk about how big that is today as a percentage of either [EBITDA] or revenue.

這真的很有幫助。那麼我的另一個問題是，您之前提到了安裝。您能否談談目前該數字佔 [EBITDA] 或收入的百分比是多少？

What is the margin profile of install? And then like what are the categories or services where you see the most opportunity? Where is that growing?

安裝的邊際概況是怎麼樣的？那麼您認為哪些類別或服務最有商機呢？它生長在哪裡？

So our install is around 16% to 17% of our overall sales as of the end of 2024. It's about -- or $1.7 billion of $2.7 billion of sales, sorry. The margin profile is in line with what we see from the product categories that we're installing.

因此，截至 2024 年底，我們的安裝量約佔總銷售額的 16% 至 17%。大約是——或者是 27 億美元銷售額中的 17 億美元，抱歉。利潤情況與我們從正在安裝的產品類別中看到的情況一致。

And the opportunities, I think it's there's a lot there, right, that we can lean into. I mean currently, it's framing, it's doors, it's windows. It's they'll work more broadly. Those are the, I would say, main categories, but what we see are many opportunities to partner with customers, depending on the local market need.

我認為那裡有很多機會，我們可以利用這些機會。我的意思是，目前，它是框架，它是門，它是窗戶。他們將進行更廣泛的工作。我想說這些是主要類別，但我們看到很多與客戶合作的機會，這取決於當地市場的需求。

David Manthey, Baird.

大衛曼蒂，貝爾德。

When you issued 2024 guidance in February last year, the EBITDA range top to bottom was about 100 basis points in today's ranges on what appear to be smaller absolute numbers. I hope I'm not slicing is too thin, but maybe if you could just address the risk factors that you see as more volatile in today's environment. Versus what you might have seen last year?

當您去年 2 月發布 2024 年指引時，EBITDA 範圍從上到下約為 100 個基點，以今天的範圍計算，絕對數字似乎較小。我希望我沒有把話題切得太窄，但也許你可以解決一下你認為在當今環境下更加不穩定的風險因素。與您去年看到的情況相比？

Yes. No, that's fair. I would tell you that coming into last year, there was an expectation that the year was building momentum. That we were going to see rate cuts that the tone out of the builders was just -- it was very consistently optimistic amongst the larger players and the smaller players were saying, oh, yes, we're going to be right behind them.

是的。不，這很公平。我想說，進入去年，人們預期今年的發展勢頭會越來越強勁。我們將看到利率下調，建築商的態度是——大型企業一直非常樂觀，而小型企業則說，哦，是的，我們將緊隨其後。

It's going to be good. That's not how it played out. That is not the tone this year. That is not the messaging we're hearing. If you're looking at the dynamics of what the core market looks like today, I think we feel okay.

一切都會好起來的。事實並非如此。今年的基調並非如此。這不是我們聽到的信息。如果你觀察一下當今核心市場的動態，我想我們感覺還不錯。

It's not fantastic, but we're doing well. I think what is more intimidating and the reason for the wider band around it is what will the unknowns generate in terms of volatility in the competitive environment? Builders are pretty vocal about, hey, we have an affordability problem. We're going to push everybody down. Everybody needs to take a cut, and that's not really new.

雖然不是太好，但我們做得很好。我認為更令人恐懼的以及周圍範圍更寬的原因是未知因素將在競爭環境中產生什麼樣的波動？建築商直​​言不諱，說「嘿，我們面臨負擔不起的問題」。我們要把所有人都打倒。每個人都需要分一杯羹，這並不是什麼新鮮事。

But if you start to overlay some of these questions about tariffs and policy changes around immigration, policy changes around housing. I think that's where our our hesitancy to keep such a narrow band this year comes from.

但如果你開始疊加一些有關關稅和移民政策變化、住房政策變化的問題。我想這就是我們今年不願意將區間維持在這麼窄的水平的原因。

That's very clear. And second on digital. The uptake has been a little slower than you expected so far. You got $134 million this year. I think you were expecting $200 million, which was, I guess, coincidentally, the fourth quarter exit rate.

這非常清楚。其次是數字。到目前為止，吸收速度比你預期的要慢。你今年得到了 1.34 億美元。我想你預計的是 2 億美元，我想，巧合的是，這是第四季的退出率。

But if you're looking for $200 million in 2025, that implies that the exit run rate of the fourth quarter doesn't improve at all through 2025. So maybe you could address that. And then I see you still have the $1 billion target, but it doesn't say 2026 year any more. Should we assume a slower ramp given the more complex environment today?

但如果您期望 2025 年達到 2 億美元，則表示到 2025 年第四季的退出運行率根本不會提高。所以也許你可以解決這個問題。然後我看到你的目標仍然是 10 億美元，但不再說 2026 年了。考慮到當今更為複雜的環境，我們是否應該假設成長速度會放緩？

Yes. No, thanks for the question. So digital is a tremendous learning opportunity for us. I remain very confident that the technology and the solution is the right answer. As we go through the learning process, I think what we've identified is that -- and you hit the nail on the head, our pace this year isn't quite what we wanted.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問。因此數位化對我們來說是一個巨大的學習機會。我依然非常有信心，這項技術和解決方案就是正確的答案。在我們經歷學習過程的過程中，我想我們已經確定的是——你說得對，我們今年的步伐並不像我們想要的那樣。

And we spent a lot of time at the end of the year to reassess why is that? Why is the pace not picking up where we thought it would be. And I think the answer has a lot to do with the way we've approached adoption. We were more generalized than I think we would like to be.

我們在年底花了很多時間重新評估為什麼會這樣？為什麼步伐沒有照我們想的那樣加快？我認為答案與我們對待收養的方式有很大關係。我認為，我們的概括性比我們想要的要強得多。

I think there's a more specific, more focused way to approach the adoption process and that's where we're leading in this year. We've really focused on a reset coming out of December and into January with regard to that with new metrics, with the alignment around the teams.

我認為有一種更具體、更有針對性的方法來處理收養程序，而這正是我們今年所引領的。我們真正關注的是 12 月和 1 月的重置，包括新的指標以及團隊之間的協調。

It's a little bit of go slow to go fast, which I think is what you're identifying in terms of our pace for 2025 and where we think we can get, I think what we're executing now is going to ultimately get us to where we want to be.

這有點像先慢後快，我認為這就是你對我們 2025 年步伐的判斷，也是我們認為我們能夠達到的水平，我認為我們現在正在執行的最終將使我們達到我們想要的目標。

In terms of the 2026 finish line. It's a great question. I don't think it's out of the question yet. Where I would tell you is we're going to find out in 2025, whether this reset and new approach to adoption is delivering like we think.

就 2026 年終點線而言。這是一個很好的問題。我認為目前這仍不是不可能的。我想告訴你的是，我們將在 2025 年發現這種重置和新採用方法是否能夠像我們想像的那樣實現。

And we'll have a much better sense as we get through the end of the year. We've got another Investor Day coming up, so we'll be able to give you, I think, a much clearer sense of where we're going to be when. I am still 100% confident in the $1 billion. I think it's only a question of when.

當我們進入年底時，我們會有更好的認識。我們即將迎來另一個投資者日，所以我認為，我們將能夠讓您更清楚地了解我們何時將在哪裡舉行。我對10億美元仍然有100％的信心。我認為這只不過是時間問題。

Keith Hughes, Truist.

基斯·休斯，Truist。

My question is on multifamily. You've given us our view for the year, the mid-teens decline. Do you expect that to hit ratably during the year? Or is there a chance this business could bottom out sometime in mid second half '25?

我的問題是關於多戶家庭的。您已經告訴了我們對於今年的看法，即經濟將出現十五六度的衰退。您預計今年這數字會大幅上升嗎？或者這項業務是否有可能在2025年下半年中期某個時候觸底？

Yes. What we're seeing right now is the lapping effect of the $400 million to $500 million headwind year over year is really going to be in the first half of this year. We're seeing our current volume levels right now are pretty consistent month over month sequentially, but we're lapping tough comps from the prior year. So is certainly front half weighted on that headwind.

是的。我們現在看到的是，同比 4 億至 5 億美元的逆風的疊加效應將在今年上半年真正顯現出來。我們看到，我們目前的銷售量與上月相比非常穩定，但與去年相比，銷量仍然很低。因此，前半部肯定受到逆風的影響。

Okay. Would that change, would that within the -- it's at the midpoint of the guidance range, does that allow EBITDA to show some level of growth in the second half to '25?

好的。這是否會改變？

Will you say growth? Is it growth sequentially or on a year over year?

你會說成長嗎？它是按季度增長還是按年增長？

No year over year. Year over year.

沒有同比。年復一年。

I would say, overall, it's not enough.

我想說，總的來說，這還不夠。

Philip Ng, Jeffries.

Philip Ng，傑弗里斯。

I appreciate all the great color. Peter, you gave some color on how perhaps your customers are progressing, but any early read on spring selling season? And I think you did mention in your prepared remarks, maybe some of the builders are testing out how they want to modulate build pace.

我欣賞這一切美麗的色彩。彼得，您稍微介紹了一下您的客戶的進展情況，但是對春季銷售旺季有什麼初步了解嗎？我覺得您在準備好的發言中確實提到過，也許一些建築商正在測試他們想要如何調節建造速度。

So my question is, have you seen them really ratchet back spec homes? Are they working down inventory? Are you seeing any notable change in behavior in terms of buying out mortgage and stuff of that nature?

所以我的問題是，你有看過他們真正地削減樣品屋嗎？他們正在減少庫存嗎？您是否發現在購買抵押貸款以及諸如此類的事情方面的行為發生了顯著變化？

Yes. No, thanks for the question. So the -- in general, I would say builders are behaving consistently. They continue to buy down pretty aggressively as their key lever for keeping the production moving. The larger production builders have really moved to this land light on one side, on the other side, very stable production mentality around how they want to put homes out.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問。所以 — — 總的來說，我想說建築商的行為是一致的。他們繼續積極購買，這是保持生產持續的關鍵槓桿。一方面，大型生產建築商已經真正轉向這片土地，另一方面，他們對如何建造房屋有著非常穩定的生產心態。

And what we've seen is modulation by market. So they're not doing it nationally. That's not how we see them thinking. It's very dependent on if you're in Florida or Denver or these individual markets behave in a way that, well, you'd expect them to behave, right? So boy, we have a little more inventory than we'd like.

我們看到的是市場調節。所以他們不會在全國範圍內這麼做。我們認為他們的想法並不是這樣。這在很大程度上取決於你是在佛羅裡達州還是丹佛，或者這些個別市場的行為方式是否符合你的預期，對嗎？所以，我們的庫存比我們想要的多一點。

We're going to goose up the the buyback a little, we're going to pull back on the new starts pace a little bit to ensure that we have this in a range that we like, but we're going to move these houses.

我們將稍微加大回購力度，我們將稍微放慢新開工速度，以確保我們在我們喜歡的範圍內，但我們將轉移這些房屋。

So I think consistent, but the pullback on starts is something that is probably the last maybe four to six months, certainly a much bigger part of the conversation than it had been in the prior periods.

所以我認為是一致的，但開工量的回落可能是過去四到六個月的情況，肯定比前幾個時期佔據了更大的討論空間。

Okay. That's helpful. And then from an M&A standpoint, certainly, 2024 was an active year, and you guys have kicked off the year pretty busy. How is the pipeline looking in terms of seller expectations and valuation? What are you seeing out there?

好的。這很有幫助。然後從併購的角度來看，2024 年無疑是活躍的一年，你們在這一年的開局就相當忙碌。從賣方期望和估價來看，情況如何？你在那裡看到了什麼？

And where are some of the big opportunities and how do you balance that and buyback? Do you still have a lot of availability here?

那麼，其中有哪些重大機會？您這裡還有空位嗎？

Yes. We've consistently talked about M&A as being a priority for us. The extent that we can effectively execute acquisitions, it has been a tremendous creator of shareholder value.

是的。我們一直在說併購是我們的首要任務。只要我們能夠有效執行收購，它就能為股東創造巨大的價值。

We think it's good for the overall business in terms of our competitive space, our footprint, our efficiency our ability to serve customers in an effective way is advantaged by these new teams that we've brought into the BFS family. There are a lot of assets out there.

我們認為，就我們的競爭空間、我們的足跡、我們的效率以及我們以有效方式服務客戶的能力而言，加入 BFS 大家庭的這些新團隊將帶來優勢，對整體業務有利。那裡有大量資產。

As you saw with 2024 and coming into '25, you have a large population, a large potential target list within the smaller world. With a much fewer, more opportunistic materialization of a larger target.

正如你在 2024 年和 2025 年看到的那樣，你擁有龐大的人口，在較小的世界中擁有龐大的潛在目標名單。以更少的、更具機會性的手段實現更大的目標。

So I'd say that's consistent. We continue to see a number of smaller opportunities, some a little bit bigger. And then every once in a while, a big one will pop and we'll have an opportunity to do something more meaningful. But regardless of the periodic nature of all that. We believe in M&A.

所以我認為這是一致的。我們繼續看到一些較小的機會，有的則稍大一些。然後每隔一段時間，就會出現一個大事件，我們將有機會做一些更有意義的事情。但不管這一切的周期性如何。我們相信併購。

We're good at it. We will continue to capture value through it. We'll continue to deploy cash that way. And certainly, we have had, I think, a lot of success with share buybacks, but it continues to be the number five on our list of capital allocation priorities.

我們很擅長這個。我們將繼續透過它獲取價值。我們將繼續以這種方式部署現金。當然，我認為我們在股票回購方面取得了很大成功，但它仍然在我們的資本配置優先事項中排名第五。

Trey Grooms, Stephens.

特雷格魯姆斯、史蒂芬斯。

Just circling back on the market share just real quick, and I don't want to beat a dead horse because I know we have spent some time on it. But I was just -- I wanted to ask if this was -- you mentioned that you'd lost a little bit. Was this specific to any geographic market or maybe specific to production builders or was it more widespread?

只是快速回顧一下市場份額，我不想再重複無用的事情，因為我知道我們已經花了一些時間。但我只是——我想問一下——你提到你瘦了一點。這是針對某個地理市場還是針對生產製造商，還是更為普遍？

And then Peter, you said you were thinking -- modest share gains this year, I think, is what's embedded. I guess what's changed there in the market where multifamily is going to be down a little bit and single family is expected to be flat? Is it just more discipline in the market coming back or what's going on?

然後彼得，你說你在想 - 我認為今年適度的股價增長是內在的。我想問市場發生了什麼變化，多戶型住宅數量會略有下降，而單戶型住宅數量預計持平？這只是市場恢復了更多紀律，還是發生了什麼事？

Well, going back to the initial conversation or the initial statement around having lost some share in the past, I think we were pretty open and transparent that as we look at the analysis, it's not decimal level precision. But based on what we can tell, there were certain builders, and I think production is fair.

好吧，回到最初的談話或關於過去失去一些份額的最初聲明，我認為我們非常開放和透明，當我們看分析時，它不是十進制級別的精度。但據我們所知，確實有一些建造者，而且我認為生產是公平的。

So the folks that were -- had a sharp pencil with regard to how they were doing their bids and attacking their cost position we're trying to find ways to drive down costs in commodities is one of those areas where there are times when certain players will get progressive. They just will. They want to buy share. They think that, that's a strategy for them.

因此，那些在如何進行投標和攻擊其成本立場方面非常敏銳的人，我們正在試圖找到降低大宗商品成本的方法，這是某些參與者有時會取得進步的領域之一。他們確實會這麼做。他們想買股票。他們認為，這是他們的一個策略。

So they'll lean in and do something we would consider irresponsible. And sometimes we'll walk away. And we walked away a fair amount. And I think at some point said, okay, that's enough. We're going to take the business that belongs to us, and we're going to stay competitive to do it.

因此他們會傾向於做一些我們認為不負責任的事情。有時我們會走開。我們也走了相當遠。我想在某個時候我會說，好吧，這就足夠了。我們將承擔屬於我們的業務，並保持競爭力。

So again, that goes back to the whole normalization thing and what we saw in that balance between share and margins. But I think that's largely the review mirror. I haven't seen anything lately in the past quarter or two that would indicate that's still in play. But it's a dynamic market, right? In terms of the -- in terms of what's going on this year and our ability to gain share, I think what you'll see are ebbs and flows.

所以，這又回到了整個正常化問題以及我們在份額和利潤之間的平衡中看到的。但我認為這很大程度上只是一面鏡子。在過去一兩個季度裡，我還沒有看到任何跡象表明這種情況仍在發生。但這是一個充滿活力的市場，對吧？就今年的情況和我們獲得份額的能力而言，我認為你會看到起起落落。

There will be aspects that we're going to win it. I think we will continue to win and install. I think we're going to continue to be the preferred supplier for trust and for preowned doors. I think those are areas where we have a demonstrated advantage.

從某些方面來看我們將會贏得勝利。我認為我們將繼續獲勝並安裝。我認為我們將繼續成為值得信賴的二手門首選供應商。我認為這些是我們具有明顯優勢的領域。

We have a cost advantage it's merely a matter of deciding how much are we willing to lean in, in those categories, how much do we have to lean in, in those categories to protect our share position. And then as we think about the last leg of the stool, the digital is an area where we continue to capture new customers, where we get a stickier and deeper relationship with customers because of the solution set that, that digital tool set provides.

我們有成本優勢，這只是一個決定我們願意在這些類別中投入多少，我們必須在這些類別中投入多少來保護我們的份額地位的問題。然後，當我們思考凳子的最後一條腿時，數位化是我們繼續吸引新客戶的領域，由於數位工具集提供的解決方案，我們與客戶建立了更緊密、更深層次的關係。

Got it. That makes sense and good to hear. So one follow-up for me, and you touched on tariffs and things like that. I've got a lot of questions around this earlier in the year. I might few weeks ago.

知道了。這很有道理，聽起來很好。所以我要問一個後續問題，您提到了關稅和類似的事情。今年早些時候我對此有很多疑問。我可能在幾週前就這麼做了。

And questions around more how if we were to see these additional tariffs come through and it meant $600 lumber as opposed to $400 lumber, what have picked the number. Can you remind us how this would flow through on the manufacturer side, the prefab side how margins would behave there in this environment if we were to see this higher lumber?

更多的問題是，如果我們看到這些額外的關稅實施，並且這意味著木材價格為 600 美元而不是 400 美元，那麼這個數字會是多少。您能否提醒我們，如果木材價格上漲，這將如何影響製造商和預製件方面，在這種環境下，利潤率將如何變化？

I know the algorithm of years past seems to -- I don't know if that's still the best way to think about it. It seems like margins had been stickier, both with lumber going up and down for you guys. So any help with that, just so we can put this into our scenario analysis as we think about tariffs, lumber, et cetera?

我知道過去幾年的演算法似乎——我不知道這是否仍然是思考它的最佳方式。看起來利潤率似乎變得更加棘手，木材價格時漲時跌。那麼，有什麼幫助嗎？

Well, I mean I'm happy to repeat a little bit about the rules of thumb that we've given in the past. But I think it's important to give you a lot of caution and caveat around that. I don't think we know what's going to happen.

好吧，我的意思是我很樂意重複我們過去給的經驗法則。但我認為，對此給予您很多謹慎和警告是很重要的。我認為我們不知道會發生什麼。

The dynamics here are a little bit different in terms of how aggressive these changes are being proposed, progressive the changes being proposed are and whether or not there's a time and it is manageable or not -- we've talked in the past about commodities plus or minus 5% on the commodities being worth around $300 million in sales over the course of the year.

這裡的動態略有不同，包括所提出的變革有多激進、所提出的變革是否進步以及是否有時間以及是否可控——我們過去曾討論過大宗商品上下浮動 5% 的情況，這些商品在一年中的銷售額約為 3 億美元。

At the fall-through relatively normal fall-through in that $60 million to $70 million range. So it's not an exact science. These are all high-level numbers, but I would say the most important thing is the velocity of the change and how the market responds.

在跌幅相對正常的範圍內，跌幅在 6,000 萬美元到 7,000 萬美元之間。所以它不是一門精確的科學。這些都是高水準的數字，但我想說最重要的是變化的速度以及市場如何反應。

A lot of -- still a lot of unknowns out there for sure, but that's still help.

當然，仍有很多未知數，但這仍然有幫助。

Adam Baumgarten, Zelman & Associates.

亞當‧鮑姆加登 (Adam Baumgarten)，澤爾曼及合夥人。

Can you give us some color on what you're seeing from a pricing perspective in the value-added products arena?

您能否從加值產品領域的定價角度為我們介紹一下您所看到的情況？

Yes, we're still seeing and we've provided in the past, with respect to value-added products relative to the lumber commodity margins.

是的，我們仍然在觀察，並且我們過去也提供過相對於木材商品利潤的增值產品。

It still goes at a premium of about 1,000 to 1,200 basis points higher because of what we're able to provide with improved cycle times or lead times for getting the product to the job site, the reduced waste and the requirement on skilled labor being reduced by having that completed in and a dedicated manufacturing facility. So we're still seeing that premium or benefit from the value add in our results.

由於我們能夠縮短將產品運送到工作現場的周期或交付週期、減少浪費以及透過在專用製造工廠內完成工作而減少對熟練勞動力的需求，因此溢價率仍然高出約 1,000 到 1,200 個基點。因此，我們仍然看到結果中的增值所帶來的溢價或利益。

Okay. Got it. And then, just in a scenario maybe where we start to see more pronounced labor constraints across the single-family construction space to (inaudible)

好的。知道了。然後，也許我們會開始看到單戶住宅建設領域勞動力限制更加明顯（聽不清楚）

We lost you --

我們失去了你--

Yes. Can you hear me?

是的。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, you're back now.

是的，你回來了。

Okay. Sorry about that. So just in a scenario where we start to see more labor constraints in construction due to some of the immigration policies. You have an installed business, do you see that as a risk to your business or actually maybe an opportunity as maybe some of your customers are looking for incremental labor?

好的。很抱歉。因此，我們開始看到，由於一些移民政策，建築業面臨更多的勞動力限制。您有一家已安裝業務，您是否認為這對您的業務是一種風險，或者實際上可能是一個機會，因為也許您的一些客戶正在尋找增量勞動力？

Well, I mean it's both, right? It's certainly an opportunity for us in order to be able to win in the marketplace, we've got the billable capacity. We've got the best skill set. We've got the most locations. We were ready to go with this.

嗯，我的意思是兩者兼而有之，對嗎？這對我們來說無疑是一個在市場上獲勝的機會，我們擁有可計費的能力。我們擁有最好的技能組合。我們擁有最多的地點。我們已經準備好這麼做了。

The problem with it in my mind is it's disruptive. And more broadly speaking, if it was just us being impacted, I'd say, win-win, we got this. but you're going to -- you're not just going to get rid of framers, you're going to get rid of gypsum, ballboard hangers. You're going to get rid of roofers. You're going to get rid of sliding folks.

我認為它的問題是它具有破壞性。更廣泛地說，如果只有我們受到影響，我想說，雙贏，我們做到了。但你要──你不只是要除掉框架，你還要除掉石膏、球板掛鉤。你將要擺脫屋頂工。你將擺脫那些滑倒的人。

And there are parts of this industry that are going to be impacted that don't have the same outlet that we offer, right? You need the people. And if you don't have the people, it's going to cause inflation, inflation is bad for affordability and affordability is bad for starts.

而這個行業的某些部分將受到影響，因為沒有我們提供的相同出路，對嗎？你需要人才。如果沒有人力，就會引起通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹對負擔能力不利，負擔能力對啟動不利。

Brian Biros, Thompson Research Group.

布萊恩·比羅斯（Brian Biros），湯普森研究小組。

Just a little bit more on the install base, impressive, I think, growth this year in a down market. Any expectations for install for '25 or how that factors into the guide?

我認為，在安裝基數方面，今年在低迷的市場中，成長令人印象深刻。對於 '25 的安裝有什麼期望或如何影響指南？

So we haven't laid a guide specifically around that category, but we're believers in it. We certainly talk a lot about it. So hopefully, that's an indication of which way we think it will go.

因此，我們沒有專門針對該類別制定指南，但我們相信它。我們確實對此討論了很多。所以希望這可以表明我們認為事情會如何發展。

Makes sense. And then for SimiFamily starts guidance for the year, is there any way to think about variance by region in that guide to you guys or where you're better or worse positioned across your footprint?

有道理。然後對於 SimiFamily 開始製定的年度指導，有沒有辦法考慮該指南中各地區的差異，或者你們在哪些方面處於更好或更差的位置？

Yes. I'd love to be able to provide a deeper guide on that, but I don't think it's in any of our best interest at this point. forecasting is difficult, especially about the future.

是的。我很樂意就此提供更深入的指導，但我認為目前這不符合我們的最佳利益。預測很難，尤其是關於未來的預測。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

傑伊麥坎利斯，韋德布希。

So the first one, just to clarify, Peter, are you guys having to lean in on price now on value-add sales? Or are you just saying if you need to, to protect share, you will lean on price? Just clarify where things are right now?

所以第一個問題，彼得，我只是想澄清一下，你們現在是否必須在增值銷售上依賴價格？或者您只是說，如果需要的話，為了保護份額，您會依靠價格？能否澄清一下目前的情況？

Yes. No, that's already been going on. We've been managing through that for the last year eight months, I'd say, more intently, but it's in flat, no question.

是的。不，這已經發生了。在過去的八個月裡，我們一直在努力解決這個問題，我想說，我們更專注，但毫無疑問，情況並沒有改變。

Okay. And then the second question, and not reading too much into it, but I think your turn around multifamily last quarter may have been a little more positive than what you talked about this quarter. But it is nice to hear that we're finally lapping that. I guess, any material change in bid processes or bid volumes on the multifamily side to maybe change your turnaround that?

好的。然後是第二個問題，我並沒有過多地解讀，但我認為上個季度你們在多戶型住宅方面的轉變可能比你本季度談到的要積極一些。但很高興聽到我們最終實現了這個目標。我想，多戶型住宅的投標流程或投標量是否會發生重大變化，從而可能改變您的轉變？

Yes. I would say any change in tone is unintentional. I'd come back from a conference last quarter where there were some folks talking about some green shoots. I would say things have been pretty stable. Just quick in the long.

是的。我想說任何語氣的改變都是無意的。上個季度我剛參加完一個會議，會上有些人在談論一些復甦的跡象。我想說情況一直很穩定。從長遠來看，這只是快速行為。

Jeffrey Stevenson, Loop Capital.

傑弗裡·史蒂文森（Jeffrey Stevenson），Loop Capital 總裁。

I wanted to go back to single-family mix headwinds this year from a decrease in value size and complexity of an average single-family start. So on a year-over-year basis, are you expecting single-family mix headwinds to moderate as we move through fiscal '25? Or does your guidance imply a relatively stable single-family mix throughout the year?

今年，我希望從單戶住宅平均價值規模和複雜性的下降開始，回顧單戶住宅組合的逆風。那麼，與去年同期相比，您是否預計隨著我們進入 25 財年，單戶住宅混合逆風將會緩和？或者您的指導暗示全年單戶住宅結構相對穩定？

I would say our guidance reflects a pretty stable single-family mix from where we ended Q4 as we move through the year. The headwinds that we outlined throughout 2024. Some of them are still there, and we'll -- we have to lap that in the first half of this year.

我想說，我們的預期反映了今年以來第四季末的單戶住宅結構相當穩定。我們概述了 2024 年全年的不利因素。其中一些仍在那裡，我們必須在今年上半年解決這些問題。

Some of that is related to the size of home and some of the complexity as well as some of that margin normalization on the single-family side with non-commodity products. So there's a little bit there, but we don't expect from a mix standpoint that it's going to have a greater impact than where we are exiting Q4.

其中一些與房屋大小​​、複雜性以及非商品單戶住宅的利潤率正常化有關。因此，那裡有一點，但從混合角度來看，我們預計它的影響不會比我們退出第四季度時的影響更大。

That makes sense, Pete. And then I appreciate the first quarter guidance and update on the adverse weather to start out the year. But historically, what percentage of first quarter sales are from March? And could you experience some pent-up demand if weather cooperates as we move through the largest month of the quarter?

這很有道理，皮特。然後，我很欣賞第一季的指導和今年年初惡劣天氣的最新情況。但從歷史上看，第一季的銷售額中有多少比例來自三月？當我們進入本季最大的月份時，​​如果天氣配合的話，您是否會體驗到一些被壓抑的需求？

You're right, March is important. From your lips to God's ears, let's have a hell of a March, I guess, is we -- we'll see.

你說得對，三月很重要。從你的嘴唇到上帝的耳朵，我想，讓我們度過一個地獄般的三月，是我們——我們拭目以待。

There are no further questions at this time. With that, this will conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

目前沒有其他問題。今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。