TopBuild Corp (BLD) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to TopBuild third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are on listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, PI Aquino, Vice President-Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 TopBuild 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於僅監聽模式。（操作員說明） 現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係副總裁 PI Aquino。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I'm joined by Robert Buck, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rob Kuhns, our Chief Financial Officer. We posted our earnings release, senior management's formal remarks, and a presentation that summarizes our comments on our website at topbuild.com.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我們的總裁兼執行長羅伯特·巴克 (Robert Buck) 也加入了我的行列。和我們的財務長 Rob Kuhns。我們在我們的網站 topbuild.com 上發布了收益報告、高階管理層的正式言論以及總結我們評論的簡報。

Many of our remarks today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in this morning's press release and in the Company's SEC filings. The Company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events, or otherwise.

我們今天的許多言論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，包括今天上午的新聞稿和公司向 SEC 提交的文件中闡述的風險和不確定性。本公司不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Please note that some other financial measures to be discussed during this call will be on a non-GAAP basis. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. We've provided a reconciliation of these financial measures to their most comparable GAAP measures in today's press release and in our presentation, both of which are available on our website.

請注意，本次電話會議期間討論的一些其他財務措施將基於非公認會計原則。這些非公認會計原則措施不應被孤立考慮，也不能取代根據公認會計原則編制的結果。我們在今天的新聞稿和簡報中提供了這些財務指標與其最具可比性的公認會計原則指標的調節表，這兩種指標均可在我們的網站上找到。

I'd like to now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Robert Buck.

我現在想將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長羅伯特·巴克。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. We're proud to share that in the third quarter, we reached another historic high for TopBuild's sales and adjusted EBITDA performance. Our teams did a very good job across both our Installation and Specialty Distribution segments, posting top line growth and bottom line profit expansion. This quarter is a prime example of our ability to perform well in any environment.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我們很自豪地告訴大家，在第三季度，我們的 TopBuild 銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 業績再創歷史新高。我們的團隊在安裝和專業分銷領域都做得非常出色，實現了營收成長和利潤擴張。本季是我們在任何環境下都能表現良好的能力的典型例子。

The landscape for building products in the third quarter was in many ways, much like the second quarter. Although we've seen improvement in inflation metrics and the labor market is strong, housing demand in the second half of the year has been slower than anticipated.

第三季建築產品的情況在許多方面都與第二季非常相似。儘管我們看到通膨指標有所改善且勞動力市場強勁，但下半年的房屋需求仍慢於預期。

Single-family residential starts go very widely across the country. Even as mortgage rates drifted lower ahead of the Fed rate cut in September, home buyer behavior suggests the consumers are holding out for a lower rate environment and election certainty. More recently, mortgage rates have been on the rise again.

單戶住宅的開工在全國範圍內非常廣泛。儘管抵押貸款利率在聯準會 9 月降息之前有所下降，但購屋者的行為表明，消費者仍在等待較低的利率環境和選舉的確定性。最近，抵押貸款利率再次上升。

On the multi-family side, we're still working through our backlog. Multi-family demand has slowed and we're not expecting it to improve in the fourth quarter and as we move into 2025. As a reminder, multi-family units typically require about 40% of the insulation when compared to single-family unit. And our business is much more weighted towards single-family, consistent with the industry.

在多戶家庭方面，我們仍在處理積壓的工作。多戶型住宅的需求已經放緩，我們預計第四季和進入 2025 年時需求不會有所改善。提醒一下，與單戶單位相比，多戶單位通常需要約 40% 的隔熱層。我們的業務更側重於單戶住宅，這與行業一致。

On the commercial industrial side, building is still very active and we have a strong backlog going into 2025. As we talked about last quarter, some project starts have been pushed out primarily for financing reasons. We have not seen an uptick in cancellations, so we anticipate that when the financing environment improves, these projects will move forward.

在商業工業方面，建築仍然非常活躍，到 2025 年我們仍有大量積壓。正如我們上季度談到的，一些項目啟動主要是由於融資原因而被推遲。我們沒有看到取消的情況增加，因此我們預計，當融資環境改善時，這些項目將會繼續推進。

Turning to our results, we performed very well in the third quarter given the macroenvironment. Sales increased 3.6% to $1.37 billion as volumes grew benefiting from acquisitions and realizing pricing across both Installation and Specialty Distribution. Our adjusted EBITDA totaled $285.1 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 20.8%.

從業績來看，考慮到宏觀環境，我們第三季的表現非常好。銷售額成長 3.6%，達到 13.7 億美元，得益於收購以及安裝和專業分銷定價的實現，銷量不斷增長。我們調整後的 EBITDA 總額為 2.851 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 20.8%。

Moving on to our operations. With over 14,000 employees, we are a people business, and everyone plays a key role in what we achieved every day. We continue to be pleased with our ability to attract labor, align incentives, and develop and reward our employees accordingly.

繼續我們的營運。我們擁有超過 14,000 名員工，是一家以人為本的企業，每個人都在我們每天的成就中發揮關鍵作用。我們仍然對我們吸引勞動力、調整激勵措施以及相應地發展和獎勵員工的能力感到滿意。

On the materials side, fiberglass is still on allocation. Planned and unplanned maintenance remains persistent with the manufacturers and the new manufacturing facility at Texas has been slower than anticipated coming online. Our teams are doing a good job managing in the continued tight supply environment. Our special ops teams continues to be an important part of our story in how we continue to improve productivity and drive profitability, as you see in our results.

材質方面，玻璃纖維仍在配置中。製造商仍然持續進行計劃內和計劃外的維護，德克薩斯州的新製造工廠的上線速度比預期要慢。我們的團隊在持續緊張的供應環境中做得很好。正如您在我們的業績中看到的那樣，我們的特種作戰團隊仍然是我們如何繼續提高生產力和提高獲利能力的重要組成部分。

As I've done on recent calls, I want to spend time highlighting a particular area of our business to provide a better understanding of our differentiated model. Today, I want to briefly touch on Crossroads, our Canadian specialty distribution business in mechanical and metal building insulation. Crossroads joined TopBuild through the acquisition of Distribution International in 2021. With its long history in Canada, they're a leader in the commercial, marine, and industrial end markets.

正如我在最近的電話會議中所做的那樣，我想花時間強調我們業務的特定領域，以便更好地了解我們的差異化模式。今天，我想簡單介紹一下 Crossroads，這是我們在加拿大從事機械和金屬建築保溫材料的專業分銷業務。Crossroads 於 2021 年透過收購 Distribution International 加入 TopBuild。他們在加拿大擁有悠久的歷史，是商業、船舶和工業終端市場的領導者。

We operate out of 18 facilities located in the key markets across Canada. And our focus is to deliver the best service possible for our customers. Our value-added specialty fabrication capabilities differentiate us from the competition and enable us to be the go-to supplier of innovative products and resources for our customers. Our focus includes both the ongoing maintenance of commercial and industrial facilities and a diverse and an impressive list of new construction projects.

我們在加拿大主要市場擁有 18 家工廠。我們的重點是為客戶提供盡可能最好的服務。我們的增值專業製造能力使我們在競爭中脫穎而出，並使我們能夠成為客戶創新產品和資源的首選供應商。我們的重點包括商業和工業設施的持續維護以及各種令人印象深刻的新建項目。

One of our more notable projects for which we are currently the lead supplier is a liquefied natural gas project on the West Coast of British Columbia. This is the largest infrastructure project in Canada's history. We're also the lead supplier for a large shipbuilding program for the Canadian Coast Guard, as well as numerous nuclear power and oil sands projects. Our Crossroads management team is highly accomplished, and we're very proud of their hard work. They've been driving the business forward and have consistently achieved growth above the market.

我們目前作為主要供應商的更著名的項目之一是位於不列顛哥倫比亞省西海岸的液化天然氣項目。這是加拿大史上最大的基礎建設項目。我們也是加拿大海岸警衛隊大型造船項目以及眾多核電和油砂項目的主要供應商。我們的 Crossroads 管理團隊非常有成就，我們為他們的辛勤工作感到非常自豪。他們一直在推動業務向前發展，並持續實現高於市場的成長。

Turning to the capital allocation. M&A is a core competency of TopBuild and acquisitions continue to be our number one capital allocation priority. We have a solid track record of generating strong returns for shareholders. We are pleased to have recently announced agreement to acquire Shannon Global Energy Solutions, a mechanical insulation company servicing multinational commercial and industrial customers. Shannon is based in upstate New York and generates approximately $11 million in annual revenue. This brings our 2024 year-to-date acquisition count to seven for a total of approximately $118 million in annual revenue.

轉向資本配置。併購是 TopBuild 的核心競爭力，收購仍是我們資本配置的第一要務。我們在為股東創造豐厚回報方面有著良好的記錄。我們很高興最近宣布同意收購 Shannon Global Energy Solutions，這是一家為跨國商業和工業客戶提供服務的機械絕緣公司。Shannon 總部位於紐約州北部，年收入約 1,100 萬美元。這使得我們 2024 年迄今的收購數量達到 7 項，年收入總額約為 1.18 億美元。

Given our robust pipeline of very active M&A environment, we've allocated more resources to support our M&A efforts as we evaluate several opportunities across our end markets. We continue to concentrate on our core of insulation and are also learning about opportunities that have the potential to expand our total addressable market. Importantly, we will stay disciplined as we focus on those opportunities to best leverage our core competencies.

鑑於我們擁有非常活躍的併購環境，我們在評估終端市場的多個機會時分配了更多資源來支持我們的併購工作。我們繼續專注於我們的絕緣核心，並且也在了解有潛力擴大我們整個潛在市場的機會。重要的是，當我們專注於這些機會時，我們將保持紀律，以最好地利用我們的核心能力。

Also in the third quarter, we continued our share buyback program, repurchasing 1.07 million shares for a total of $413.9 million. As you saw in our press release this morning and considering today's macroenvironment, we are tightening our outlook on 2024, which Rob will cover in more detail.

同樣在第三季度，我們繼續實施股票回購計劃，回購了 107 萬股股票，總金額為 4.139 億美元。正如您在今天早上的新聞稿中看到的那樣，考慮到當今的宏觀環境，我們正在收緊對 2024 年的展望，Rob 將對此進行更詳細的介紹。

Before I turn it over to Rob, let me reiterate, we are performing very well in the macroenvironment that has been choppier than anyone had anticipated at the beginning of the year. Despite this, 2024 will be another strong year of profitable growth for TopBuild. We are very well-positioned to capitalize on improving demand that we believe will materialize as 2025 progresses.

在我把它交給羅布之前，讓我重申一下，我們在宏觀環境中表現得非常好，這個宏觀環境比年初任何人預期的都要不穩定。儘管如此，2024 年仍將是 TopBuild 獲利成長強勁的一年。我們處於有利位置，可以充分利用需求的改善，我們相信隨著 2025 年的進展，需求將成為現實。

We participate in a great category and industry, and we have a differentiated business model. The underlying fundamentals are strong: An underbilled housing market in the US, rising household formations, and the prospect for lower interest rates. These factors, coupled with the critical role that insulation plays in driving energy efficiency and meeting strengthening building codes, demonstrate why we're bullish about the long-term growth opportunity for TopBuild.

我們參與了一個偉大的品類和產業，我們擁有差異化的商業模式。基本面強勁：美國房地產市場價格低迷、家庭結構不斷增加、利率下降的前景。這些因素，再加上隔熱材料在提高能源效率和滿足強化建築規範方面發揮的關鍵作用，說明了我們為何看好 TopBuild 的長期成長機會。

Rob?

搶？

Thanks, Robert. I'd like to extend my thanks to our teams for their hard work in delivering another excellent quarter. As Robert noted, record high sales of $1.37 billion, grew 3.6% versus prior year, with both segments showing growth year-over-year and sequentially. M&A, net of a disposition, contributed 2.3%, while price was up 1% and volume improved 0.4%. Third quarter pricing of 1% reflects the continued realization of higher fiberglass pricing, net of new price reductions on spray foam driven by increased supply.

謝謝，羅伯特。我要向我們的團隊表示感謝，感謝他們的辛勤工作，為我們帶來了另一個出色的季度。正如 Robert 指出的，銷售額創歷史新高，達到 13.7 億美元，比上年增長 3.6%，兩個細分市場均呈現同比和環比增長。扣除處置後的併購貢獻了 2.3%，而價格上漲了 1%，成交量增加了 0.4%。第三季定價上漲 1%，反映了玻璃纖維定價的持續上漲，扣除了供應增加導致的噴塗泡沫新的降價。

Turning to our segments. Installation sales grew 4.2% to $856.4 million. Net M&A added 2.7%, pricing contributed 1.1%, and volume was up 0.5%. Residential sales improved slightly from the second quarter and grew 3.7% versus prior year due to M&A and single-family growth, partially offset by slowing multi-family sales. Commercial sales improved slightly from the second quarter and grew 6.8% versus prior year due to M&A and timing of projects. Specialty Distribution sales rose 5.1% to $ 600.4 million in the third quarter. Volume improved 3%, acquisitions added 1.4%, and pricing contributed 0.8%.

轉向我們的細分市場。安裝銷售額成長 4.2%，達到 8.564 億美元。淨併購成長 2.7%，定價貢獻 1.1%，成交量成長 0.5%。由於併購和單戶住宅​​的成長，住宅銷售較第二季略有改善，較上年同期成長 3.7%，但部分被多戶住宅銷售放緩所抵銷。由於併購和專案時機安排，商業銷售較第二季略有改善，較去年同期成長 6.8%。第三季專業分銷銷售額成長 5.1%，達到 6.004 億美元。銷售成長 3%，收購成長 1.4%，定價成長 0.8%。

Sales to the residential end market improved slightly from the second quarter and grew by 8.5% versus prior year. Sales to the commercial and industrial end markets slowed slightly from the second quarter and grew by 2.9% versus prior year.

住宅終端市場的銷售額較第二季略有改善，較去年同期成長 8.5%。商業和工業終端市場的銷售額較第二季略有放緩，較去年同期成長 2.9%。

Third quarter adjusted gross profit of $421.8 million or a 30.7% margin was 100 basis points lower than last year. As we've discussed in the past, our 2023 third quarter results included a one-time benefit of approximately $15 million from higher-than-normal margins on multi-family and commercial projects in the Installation segment. Excluding this, adjusted gross margin improved by 10 basis points versus last year as we continue to focus on driving productivity and profitability across our operations.

第三季調整後毛利為 4.218 億美元，利潤率為 30.7%，比去年同期低 100 個基點。正如我們過去討論的那樣，我們的 2023 年第三季業績包括安裝領域多戶住宅和商業項目高於正常水平的利潤帶來的約 1500 萬美元的一次性收益。排除這一點，調整後的毛利率比去年提高了 10 個基點，因為我們繼續專注於提高整個業務的生產力和盈利能力。

Third quarter adjusted SG&A as a percent of sales was 12.8%, an improvement of 40 basis points versus last year. Topbuild adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter totaled $285.1 million or a margin of 20.8%. Excluding the $15 million margin benefit from last year, we expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 50 basis points. Installation segment adjusted EBITDA margin was 22.3%, a 40-basis-point improvement after excluding last year's $15 million benefit. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the Specialty Distribution segment expanded by 20 basis points versus 2023 to 18.4%.

第三季調整後的 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比為 12.8%，比去年提高了 40 個基點。Topbuild第二季調整後EBITDA總計2.851億美元，利潤率為20.8%。除去去年 1,500 萬美元的利潤收益，我們將調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 50 個基點。安裝部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 22.3%，扣除去年 1,500 萬美元的收益後，提高了 40 個基點。專業分銷部門調整後 EBITDA 利潤率較 2023 年擴大 20 個基點，達到 18.4%。

Other income and expense of $16.1 million in the third quarter was $3.3 million higher than prior year due to lower interest income, which was driven by lower cash balances. Third quarter adjusted earnings per diluted share of $5.68 improved 4.6% compared to last year.

第三季其他收入和支出為 1,610 萬美元，比上年同期增加 330 萬美元，原因是現金餘額減少導致利息收入減少。第三季調整後每股攤薄收益為 5.68 美元，比去年同期成長 4.6%。

Moving to our balance sheet and cash flow. Total liquidity was $693.6 million at the end of the quarter. Cash was $257.3 million, and we have $436.2 million of availability under our revolver. We ended the quarter with net debt of $1.14 billion, and our net debt leverage ratio was 1.06 times trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA. Working capital as a percentage of sales was 14.1%, an improvement of 50 basis points compared to prior year. Free cash flow for the trailing 12 months totaled $698 million, representing a 2.6% improvement over the same period prior year.

轉向我們的資產負債表和現金流。截至本季末，流動資金總額為 6.936 億美元。現金為 2.573 億美元，我們的左輪手槍還有 4.362 億美元的可用資金。本季結束時，我們的淨債務為 11.4 億美元，淨債務槓桿率為過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的 1.06 倍。營運資本佔銷售額的百分比為 14.1%，比上年提高 50 個基點。過去 12 個月的自由現金流總計 6.98 億美元，比去年同期成長 2.6%。

We continue to strategically allocate these strong free cash flows and our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged with acquisitions our top priority. This year, we have announced seven transactions and we continue to have a very healthy pipeline. Our second priority remains returning capital to shareholders. And in the third quarter, we bought back $413.9 million or 1.07 million shares. That brings our year-to-date share buybacks to $919.2 million or 2.3 million shares. As of September 30, $235.2 million remains under our current share repurchase authorization.

我們繼續策略性地分配這些強勁的自由現金流，我們的資本配置優先事項保持不變，收購是我們的首要任務。今年，我們宣布了七筆交易，我們繼續擁有非常健康的管道。我們的第二要務仍然是向股東返還資本。第三季度，我們回購了 4.139 億美元或 107 萬股股票。這使得我們今年迄今的股票回購額達到 9.192 億美元，即 230 萬股。截至 9 月 30 日，我們目前的股票回購授權仍有 2.352 億美元。

Finally, turning to our outlook, we are narrowing our full-year guidance. We expect to finish the year with sales between $5.3 billion and $5.35 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 2.5% at the midpoint. We have also tightened our adjusted EBITDA expectations to $1.055 billion to $1.085 billion. While the macroenvironment has not played out the way we originally thought this year, 2024 is shaping up to be our ninth consecutive year of sales and profit growth, something we are very proud of.

最後，談到我們的前景，我們正在縮小全年指引。我們預計今年的銷售額將在 53 億美元至 53.5 億美元之間，中間值年增 2.5%。我們也將調整後的 EBITDA 預期收緊至 10.55 億美元至 10.85 億美元。雖然今年的宏觀環境並沒有像我們最初想像的那樣發展，但 2024 年將是我們連續第九年實現銷售額和利潤成長，對此我們感到非常自豪。

While the choppiness of our end markets is likely to continue into the first half of 2025, we think the underlying fundamentals for demand in our industry remains strong, and we are confident that we will continue to drive profitable growth and increase shareholder value.

儘管終端市場的波動可能會持續到 2025 年上半年，但我們認為產業需求的基本面依然強勁，我們有信心繼續推動獲利成長並提高股東價值。

Robert?

羅伯特？

Before opening up the call to questions, let me reiterate some of my opening remarks. We have a proven differentiated business model, a disciplined capital allocation approach, and an ongoing focus on strong execution and driving improvements throughout the business. As we look ahead, the macro fundamentals of our business are supportive of construction demand growth. We are inherently well-positioned to capitalize on the opportunities for increased energy efficiency and strengthening building codes.

在開始提問之前，讓我重申我的一些開場白。我們擁有經過驗證的差異化業務模式、嚴格的資本配置方法，並持續專注於強大的執行力和推動整個業務的改進。展望未來，我們業務的宏觀基本面支持建築需求的成長。我們本質上處於有利地位，可以利用提高能源效率和加強建築規範的機會。

We continue to have a significant opportunity to drive growth through M&A. Our pipeline is healthy, and we are very active. We have a great track record of evaluating, acquiring, and integrating businesses generating solid returns. We remain committed to building on our track record of delivering increased shareholder value, and we expect 2024 to be another strong year of profitable growth.

我們持續擁有透過併購推動成長的重要機會。我們的管道很健康，而且非常活躍。我們在評估、收購和整合能夠產生豐厚回報的業務方面擁有良好的記錄。我們仍然致力於鞏固我們提供更高股東價值的記錄，我們預計 2024 年將是另一個盈利增長強勁的一年。

I'll conclude by thanking our teams for their continued dedication, focus on our customers, and commitment to safety. We want to thank you for your efforts to consistently execute and drive improvements across our business.

最後，我要感謝我們的團隊的持續奉獻、對客戶的關注以及對安全的承諾。我們要感謝您為持續執行和推動我們整個業務的改進所做的努力。

With that, operator, we're ready to open the lines for questions.

接線員，我們就可以開始提問了。

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我們現在將進行問答環節。（操作員說明）

Philip Ng, Jefferies.

菲利普‧吳，杰弗里斯。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. This is [Maggie], on for Phil. Rob, you called out some of the current choppiness continuing into the first half of next year. Can you give us a framework for how to think about 2025? And do you have enough levers to continue driving organic top line and EBITDA growth even if we don't see a meaningful acceleration in the single-family starts next year?

嘿。大家早安。我是[瑪姬]，替菲爾代言。羅布，您指出了目前持續到明年上半年的一些波動。您能給我們一個如何思考 2025 年的框架嗎？即使我們沒有看到明年單戶住宅開工量出現有意義的加速，您是否有足夠的槓桿來繼續推動有機收入和 EBITDA 成長？

Yeah, Maggie. This is Rob. Obviously, we haven't put out our guidance for 2025. But as we look ahead, we're optimistic about 2025 that that could be our 10th consecutive year of sales and profit growth. Obviously, we're dealing with some choppiness in the end markets right now. But overall, like we've talked about, the fundamentals we know are strong. We're optimistic that rates will come down next year for resi and commercial, and that should be good for end market demands.

是的，瑪吉。這是羅布。顯然，我們還沒有發布 2025 年的指導。但展望未來，我們對 2025 年持樂觀態度，認為這可能是我們銷售額和利潤連續第十年成長。顯然，我們現在正在應對終端市場的一些波動。但總的來說，正如我們所討論的，我們所知道的基本面是強大的。我們樂觀地認為明年再生矽和商業電費將會下降，這應該有利於終端市場的需求。

While we know the headwinds on multi-family, we started to see that hit us in Q3, that we're going to continue to see that into Q4 and into early next year, it's important to remember that 10% of our total business, right now, our bidding activity there has actually picked up some. So we're optimistic that things may have bottomed out there and that could be getting better.

雖然我們知道多戶型住宅面臨的阻力，但我們在第三季度開始看到這種情況對我們造成的影響，我們將在第四季度和明年初繼續看到這種情況，重要的是要記住，我們總業務的10%，現在，我們在那裡的投標活動實際上有所回升。因此，我們樂觀地認為，情況可能已經觸底，並且可能會好轉。

And then on the rest of our business, even if that was down 30% for the whole year, which we don't think it would be, we think given the share we've taken there, the bidding activity we're seeing, we're not going to be down anywhere near what the market is. But the rest of our business would need to be up -- if that's down 30% next year in line with what starts are down year-to-date, we need to be up a little over 3% in the rest of our core business, which we think is definitely doable.

然後就我們的其餘業務而言，即使全年下降 30%，我們認為考慮到我們在那裡所佔的份額以及我們所看到的競標活動，我們認為這不會發生，我們不會跌到接近市場水平的水平。但我們的其他業務需要成長——如果明年與年初至今的開工率下降一致，那麼我們的其他核心業務就需要成長 3% 多一點，我們認為這絕對是可行的。

So long answer to your question, yes, we still see a path for sales and profit organic growth next year.

回答你的問題就這麼長了，是的，我們仍然看到明年銷售和利潤有機成長的道路。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then I wanted to dig into pricing. You have the midyear fiberglass increase. Can you talk about realization for that? We've been getting some feedback that builders are getting some pricing fatigue. So just wanted to -- if you could go through how some of those conversations are going. And then on the spray foam side, you mentioned price reductions. Are you starting to see prices stabilize or are there going to be continued headwinds in that category?

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後我想深入研究定價。年中玻璃纖維價格上漲。您能談談對此的認識嗎？我們收到一些回饋，顯示建築商對定價感到疲勞。所以我只是想——如果你能了解其中一些對話的進展。然後在噴塗泡沫方面，您提到了降價。您是否開始看到價格趨於穩定，還是該類別將繼續面臨阻力？

Hey Maggie. It's Robert. So on fiberglass, I think, as Rob pointed out in his remarks, we definitely saw improvement quarter-over-quarter, Q2 to Q3, on fiberglass. But look, there's been a lot of definitely conversations, thousands of conversations with the builders given the choppiness and stuff. So overall, we feel like, as you can see in our performance, the team's done a nice job there. But it's, as you might imagine, region-by-region, local geography-by-geography conversation and situation. But overall, our team has done a nice job.

嘿瑪吉。這是羅伯特.因此，在玻璃纖維方面，我認為，正如羅佈在演講中指出的那樣，我們確實看到了玻璃纖維的季度環比（第二季度到第三季度）的改善。但是看，考慮到不穩定的情況，我們與建築商進行了很多肯定的對話，數千次對話。總的來說，我們覺得，正如您在我們的表現中看到的那樣，團隊在那裡做得很好。但正如你可能想像的那樣，這是一個地區一個地區、一個地區一個地區的對話和情況。但總的來說，我們的團隊做得很好。

Yes, spray foam, definitely, I think there was a lot of upbeat talk about spray foam, if you go back at the beginning of the year, with change in energy codes, and it just has to pencil half for the builders. So in anticipation of what folks are thinking, you see a lot of supply come into big markets like at Texas, and that's created a competitive situation. We would think that's not sustainable, what happened relative to the decline. So we would see that stabilizing here coming out of 2024 going into 2025.

是的，噴塗泡沫，當然，我認為有很多關於噴塗泡沫的樂觀討論，如果你回到今年年初，隨著能源法規的變化，只需為建築商減少一半即可。因此，根據人們的想法，您會看到大量供應進入德克薩斯州等大市場，這創造了競爭局面。我們認為相對於下降而言，這種情況是不可持續的。因此，我們將看到 2024 年到 2025 年期間將趨於穩定。

All right. Thanks so much, guys.

好的。非常感謝，夥計們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephen Kim, Evercore.

史蒂芬金，Evercore。

Hi. This is [Atish], on for Steve. Thanks for taking the question. Just sticking with pricing there. Outside of fiberglass and spray foam, how should we think about the pricing dynamics of the other products in the quarter and kind of going forward with our deflation there? So if you could touch on that, that would be helpful.

你好。我是 [Atish]，為 Steve 發言。感謝您提出問題。只是堅持那裡的定價。除了玻璃纖維和噴塗泡沫之外，我們應該如何考慮本季其他產品的定價動態以及我們在那裡的通貨緊縮的情況？因此，如果您能觸及這一點，那將會很有幫助。

Yeah, Aatish. This is Rob. So I'd say overall, there are other product categories. No meaningful change. The two movements from quarter-to-quarter was, as Robert said, we saw improvement in price realization on the fiberglass side from Q2 to Q3. And then in Q3, the news there was the spray foam price decreases that we -saw, we got decreases on the supply side as well as, as Robert talked about, things got a little more competitive in certain markets with new supply coming online. So that had the opposite impact, ending up with kind of a muted 1%. But the other product categories didn't have a meaningful impact.

是的，阿蒂什。這是羅布。所以我想說總的來說，還有其他產品類別。沒有任何有意義的改變。正如羅伯特所說，從第二季度到第三季度，我們看到玻璃纖維方面的價格實現有所改善。然後在第三季度，有消息稱，我們看到噴塗泡沫價格下降，供應方面也有所下降，正如羅伯特所說，隨著新供應的上線，某些市場的競爭變得更加激烈。所以這產生了相反的影響，最終只有 1%。但其他產品類別並沒有產生有意義的影響。

Hey guys. It's Steve. Just jumping in. I guess my question, just a housekeeping item first, wanting to confirm that you actually had an extra day this quarter which you included in your volume. And I assume that also you have an extra day in the fourth quarter. So just if you could confirm that.

嘿夥計們。是史蒂夫。剛跳進去。我想我的問題首先只是一個家務項目，想確認您本季實際上有額外的一天，並將其包含在您的捲中。我假設第四季你還有額外的一天。所以只要你能證實這一點。

And then a larger question about the commercial projects, as C&I delays. I think last time we met, Robert, you thought that most of those projects will likely only going to be delayed by like a couple of months or something. Because if they were going to be delayed longer than that, I think you had indicated that the customers would probably like come back to you asking you to extend your quoted pricing. And they weren't doing that. So you said, probably, they're only delayed a couple of months.

隨著 C&I 的推遲，關於商業項目的更大問題也隨之而來。我想上次我們見面時，羅伯特，你認為大多數項目可能只會推遲幾個月之類的。因為如果他們的延誤時間超過這個時間，我認為您已經表示客戶可能會回來找您要求您延長報價。但他們並沒有這麼做。所以你說，可能他們只延後了幾個月。

I'm curious, has that changed? Are we looking at longer delays now? And if maybe you could describe, if so, what does that make you think about for fiscal 2025? Are you going to have more of a bunching of projects in 2025? So are we actually going to see more C&I activity in 2025 than you previously thought or help me think through the dynamics there?

我很好奇，情況有改變嗎？我們現在是否正在考慮更長的延誤？如果您可以描述一下，如果可以的話，您對 2025 財年有何看法？2025 年你會擁有更多的專案嗎？那麼，2025 年我們實際上會看到比您之前想像的更多的 C&I 活動嗎？

Morning, Steve. It's Robert. I'll take the first part of that, the commercial and industrial side. And then Rob can then talk about the days in the quarter. Yeah, great question that you have there. So there have been more delays. I think the positive is no cancellations that have happened. I think last time when I saw you, we're talking about some big data center projects that we were working on that had been delayed three or four months at that point. Now we're seeing these projects delayed three or four months or even a couple of quarters into 2025.

早安，史蒂夫。這是羅伯特.我將討論第一部分，即商業和工業方面。然後 Rob 可以談論本季的日子。是的，你的問題很好。所以出現了更多的延誤。我認為正面的一面是沒有發生取消。我想上次見到你時，我們正在談論我們正在進行的一些大數據中心項目，當時這些項目已經推遲了三到四個月。現在我們看到這些項目推遲了三、四個月甚至幾個季度，直到 2025 年。

So as Rob talked about I think in his remarks, we talked about special distribution and the volume there, we're pretty happy. So what was driving that has been some good maintenance and repair work that is hit from the C&I side of the business. So that would say that we expect, assuming a stable financial environment and things improve there, bigger pickup in the capital projects and bigger projects on the commercial and industrial side in 2025.

因此，正如羅布所說，我認為在他的演講中，我們談到了特別發行和那裡的數量，我們非常高興。因此，推動這一趨勢的是工業商業方面的一些良好的維護和維修工作。因此，我們預計，假設金融環境穩定且情況有所改善，2025 年資本項目以及商業和工業方面的項目將出現更大增長。

So bidding remains active. No cancellation uptick. So I'd say we're positive from that perspective. But definitely continued delays in projects, some a little bit longer. If you take, like, you may say we'll (inaudible) mega project or give you some verticals that you might talk about, EV and battery plants have been a great example of having some demand that's slow there, projects are getting delayed. Pushed out, not canceled. So that would be an example that we see there are a little more extended delays.

因此競標仍然活躍。取消訂單沒有增加。所以我想說從這個角度來看我們是正面的。但專案肯定會繼續延遲，有些延遲的時間會更長一些。如果您認為，您可能會說我們將（聽不清楚）大型專案或給您一些您可能會談論的垂直行業，電動車和電池工廠就是一個很好的例子，說明那裡的需求緩慢，專案正在推遲。是推出來的，不是取消的。因此，這就是我們看到延遲時間更長的例子。

Yeah. And then just to hit on your housekeeping items there. You're correct. It's plus one day in Q3 and Q4 on a year-over-year basis.

是的。然後就在那裡找到你的家事用品。你是對的。第三季和第四季同比增加了一天。

Perfect. Thanks so much, guys.

完美的。非常感謝，夥計們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

Hi. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. First, maybe a little bit also of a housekeeping question, just to kind of better appreciate the degree of magnitude here given the variety of your end markets and products that you offer. If you could just remind us roughly what percent of sales does commercial represent as well as on the residential side, spray foam, as a percent of your overall sales? Or if it's more relevant, your Installation segment? Just to kind of better appreciate again the impact of some of the mix trends in these areas.

你好。謝謝。大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，也許還有一點家政問題，只是為了更好地理解這裡的規模，考慮到您的終端市場和您提供的產品的多樣性。您能否提醒我們，商業以及住宅方面的銷售額所佔的百分比是多少，噴塗泡沫佔您總銷售額的百分比？或者，如果更相關的話，您的安裝部分？只是為了更好地再次理解這些領域的一些混合趨勢的影響。

Sure, Mike. This is Rob. So pretty straightforward answer there, commercial and industrial for our business on the Install side, it's about 15% of our total sales. Specialty Distribution is about 60%. And that puts TopBuild at kind of around 35%. Spray foam between the segments, on the Install side, you're talking 15% to 20% of total sales; Distribution around 10%, and that puts the overall TopBuild at that 10%- to 15%-type number.

當然，麥克。這是羅布。答案非常簡單，對於我們安裝方面的商業和工業業務來說，它約占我們總銷售額的 15%。專業分佈約60%。這使得 TopBuild 大約為 35%。在各部分之間噴塗泡沫，在安裝方面，佔總銷售額的 15% 到 20%；分佈在 10% 左右，這使得總體 TopBuild 處於 10% 到 15% 的數字。

Okay. Great. And I assume when you kind of talk about the commercial projects being delayed, that is kind of, broadly speaking, referring to the overall commercial and industrial numbers that you just quoted?

好的。偉大的。我想當你談到商業項目被推遲時，廣義上講，是指你剛才引用的商業和工業總體數據？

Yeah. That's correct. So no particular geography to point out or anything like that. It's pretty neutral across the country and even thinking about the verticals that I spoke about earlier.

是的。這是正確的。所以沒有特定的地理位置可以指出或類似的東西。全國範圍內的情況相當中立，甚至考慮到我之前談到的垂直行業。

Okay. All right. Because I think also a part of that is there is a portion of the commercial and industrial business that's kind of more recurring. So I don't know if that would be kind of outside of those percentages, so to speak.

好的。好的。因為我認為其中一部分是商業和工業業務的一部分是更經常性的。所以我不知道這是否會超出這些百分比，可以這麼說。

Yes. I mean, inside of the 35% is the recurring revenue. And like Robert said, the recurring was strong in the quarter and our overall C&I for the quarter was up 4% across the Company. So, more in line with our -- it's actually a little better than the reduced assumption we had coming into the back half of the year. Here, we were thinking more kind of low single-digit growth. And that was a little better than we thought in the quarter.

是的。我的意思是，這 35% 裡面是經常性收入。正如羅伯特所說，本季的經常性支出強勁，整個公司本季的整體 C&I 成長了 4%。因此，更符合我們的——實際上比我們今年下半年的減少假設要好一些。在這裡，我們更多地考慮的是低個位數成長。這比我們在本季的預期要好一些。

Great. Second question relates more to the M&A backdrop. We see the continued activity this year. I think going back to the beginning of the year with the SPI deal that fell through for reasons that obviously we're all familiar with, that was a relatively larger deal and I think there is some maybe concern out there that similar larger deals may be harder to come by. So I'm just kind of curious what your thoughts around -- you kind of continue to talk about the M&A backdrop remaining robust, a lot of activity, a lot of opportunity.

偉大的。第二個問題更涉及併購背景。我們看到今年的活動仍在繼續。我想回到今年年初的 SPI 交易，該交易因顯然我們都熟悉的原因而失敗，這是一筆相對較大的交易，我認為可能有人擔心類似的較大交易可能會被取消。 。所以我只是好奇你的想法 - 你繼續談論併購背景仍然強勁，有很多活動，有很多機會。

Kind of on the medium to larger side, I was wondering if you could kind of review your prospects across your three different verticals. I guess it's more relevant to the medium to larger opportunities more on the commercial and industrial side. But kind of where you stand with those types of acquisitions? And how should we think about the next two or three years as it relates to the potential for additional medium to larger deals?

在中型到大型方面，我想知道您是否可以回顧一下您在三個不同垂直領域的前景。我想這與商業和工業方面的中型到大型機會更相關。但您對這些類型的收購有何看法？我們應該如何看待未來兩三年，因為它涉及更多中型到大型交易的潛力？

Yeah, Mike. It's Robert, and I'll take that from a few different angles. So you have to look at the current pipeline and what we have under NDAs and deals that were closer to there, it's really across all three of the end markets there that we service. And there's some nice chunkier deals and they are $40 million, $50 million, $60 million type of deals. And then there's the smaller $15million, $20 million type of deals as well. So very active right now. Not just active, but I'd say a lot of things that we're working from an M&A perspective.

是的，麥克。我是羅伯特，我將從幾個不同的角度來看這個問題。因此，您必須查看當前的管道以及我們根據保密協議和更接近的交易所擁有的內容，它實際上遍及我們服務的所有三個終端市場。還有一些不錯的大額交易，有 4000 萬美元、5000 萬美元、6000 萬美元類型的交易。還有規模較小的 1500 萬美元、2000 萬美元類型的交易。所以現在非常活躍。不僅是正面的，而且我想說的是我們從併購的角度正在做的很多事情。

I think your question's a good question as you think longer term here, I mean, obviously, the SPI, just to remind you of that point, is a very small piece of that business that got focused on around the MDI piece. So we still see mechanical industrial side as great opportunity. That's why we do call out Shannon, because as we were working on SPI, we kind of slowed some of those in that space. And now, we're seeing that activity pick back up, which is great. I think we're excited about what's happening there.

我認為你的問題是一個很好的問題，因為你在這裡思考更長遠的問題，我的意思是，顯然，SPI，只是提醒你這一點，是圍繞 MDI 部分關注的業務中很小的一部分。所以我們仍然認為機械工業方面是很好的機會。這就是為什麼我們確實呼籲 Shannon，因為當我們致力於 SPI 時，我們在某種程度上放慢了該領域的一些工作。現在，我們看到活動有所回升，這很棒。我想我們對那裡發生的事情感到興奮。

But as we think two or three years, I think it's a key point that we talk about and that is really, we're focused on the core competencies that TopBuild has. Our core competencies, we're very comfortable and a competency of running this dispersed branch network type of model with central support. Obviously, from a culture perspective, what we've built relative to this like local ownership, local empowerment piece, surrounded by the safety and the technology that we have in place. And then obviously, we're known for the labor and how we've been able to attract and retain labor.

但當我們考慮兩三年後，我認為這是我們談論的一個關鍵點，那就是，我們確實專注於 TopBuild 擁有的核心能力。我們的核心能力，我們非常有能力在中央支援下運行這種分散的分支機構網路類型的模型。顯然，從文化的角度來看，我們相對於此而建立的東西，例如本地所有權、本地賦權部分，周圍都是我們現有的安全和技術。顯然，我們以勞動力以及我們如何吸引和留住勞動力而聞名。

So models that fit that, along with how we leverage supply chain, and then being able to build through not just organically through M&A. You take those core competencies (inaudible)things that I just mentioned, we think that opens up avenues for us that are great opportunities and stuff that are very close to what we do. So we're pretty optimistic and good line of sight to the next two to three years of how we think about it.

因此，適合這一點的模型，以及我們如何利用供應鏈，然後能夠通過併購而不僅僅是有機地進行構建。你採用我剛才提到的那些核心能力（聽不清楚），我們認為這為我們開闢了道路，這是巨大的機會和與我們所做的非常接近的東西。因此，我們對未來兩到三年的想法非常樂觀和良好的看法。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝。大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

My first question is around the energy efficiency initiatives that you had mentioned. As the builders are struggling with the affordability headwinds and rates are continuing to have higher versus lower, can you talk about how some of that is perhaps flowing through and how it may come through over the course of the next year or so?

我的第一個問題是關於你提到的能源效率措施。由於建築商正在努力應對負擔能力的逆風，而且利率繼續走高與走低，您能否談談其中一些可能如何流動以及在未來一年左右的時間內如何實現？

Yeah. I'll start with that, Susan. It's Robert. So yes, as I mentioned earlier, whenever we're talking about spray foam, there's been some excitement. But at the end of the day, the builders are just getting that to pencil out. It hasn't really come to fruition. So there are other installation, i.e., fiberglass alternatives there. Definitely, if you think about like a blown-in-blanket, which you may have heard the term BIBS in the industry before. That can definitely accomplish and meet the codes as well. As you know, given our model, we're pretty agnostic, we can go with a lot of different solutions for the builders, and that's what we're giving them today.

是的。我就從這個開始吧，蘇珊。這是羅伯特.所以，是的，正如我之前提到的，每當我們談論噴霧泡沫時，都會感到興奮。但最終，建設者們只是把它寫下來。還沒有真正實現。因此還有其他安裝方式，即玻璃纖維替代品。當然，如果您想像一條被吹起來的毯子，您可能以前在行業中聽說過“BIBS”一詞。這絕對可以完成並滿足規範。如您所知，鑑於我們的模型，我們非常不可知，我們可以為建構者提供許多不同的解決方案，這就是我們今天為他們提供的解決方案。

So we definitely see it playing out where these codes are going to be a tailwind, and we're going to satisfy those with fiberglass solutions or other solutions. And there'll be some place I'm sure some folks will use spray foam to meet those codes, may be in the customer, even in the regional sector there. But I don't think it'll hold back the implementation of some of the codes, more stringent codes, if you will.

因此，我們肯定會看到這些程式碼將成為順風，我們將透過玻璃纖維解決方案或其他解決方案來滿足那些需求。我相信在某些地方，有些人會使用噴塗泡沫來滿足這些規範，可能是在客戶中，甚至在區域部門。但我不認為它會阻礙某些程式碼的實施，如果你願意的話，更嚴格的程式碼。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe thinking about the cost environment a bit. Can you just talk about labor? The availability that you're seeing there, has that changed at all? Or has it gotten any better for you? How you're thinking about wage inflation? And then I guess, as it relates to that, also just some of the company-specific efforts that you're pursuing as it relates to being more productive and efficient, especially on some of the distribution efforts there?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許要考慮一下成本環境。能簡單談談勞動嗎？您在那裡看到的可用性是否發生了變化？或者你的情況變得更好了嗎？您如何看待工資上漲？然後我想，與此相關，也只是您正在追求的一些特定於公司的努力，因為它與提高生產力和效率有關，特別是在那裡的一些分銷工作？

Yeah. So from a labor perspective, as you know, it's always been a strength for us. And I'd say there's been choppiness in certain markets and stuff. Labors have become more readily available. But as we look out further into 2025 and some of the things pick back up, we definitely think labor for the industry, not for TopBuild, would be at constraint.

是的。因此，從勞動力的角度來看，如您所知，這一直是我們的優勢。我想說的是，某些市場和其他東西出現了波動。勞動力變得更加容易取得。但當我們進一步展望 2025 年，有些情況會有所改善時，我們肯定認為該行業的勞動力（而不是 TopBuild）將受到限制。

Relative to the inflation piece, we really haven't seen it. Just a reminder, the majority of our workforce there is on a piece rate. So whenever we talk about our special ops teams and really working productivity, that's what we're constantly doing. So you never really heard us talk much about the wage inflation side because we really worked on improving productivity and things specifically that we're working on there, some better tools that we're putting in place for our teams in the field to make them more efficient of getting on job sites the installed perspective as well. So we continue to work those. And that includes, on the distribution side, our drivers. If you think about, from a distribution model, drivers being a very important part of the team there. So working activities there to make that group more productive, both in warehouses, but the drivers specifically as well.

相對於通貨膨脹部分，我們確實還沒看到。提醒一下，我們的員工大多是計件薪水的。因此，每當我們談論我們的特種部隊和真正的工作生產力時，這就是我們一直在做的事情。所以你從來沒有真正聽到我們談論工資通膨方面，因為我們確實致力於提高生產力，特別是我們正在做的事情，我們為我們的現場團隊準備了一些更好的工具來實現這些目標也可以更有效地獲得已安裝的視角。所以我們繼續致力於這些工作。在分銷方面，這包括我們的司機。如果你考慮一下，從分配模式來看，司機是那裡團隊中非常重要的一部分。因此，在那裡開展工作是為了提高團隊的生產力，無論是在倉庫，還是司機。

Okay. Thank you for the color and good luck with everything.

好的。謝謝你的顏色，祝一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeffrey Stevenson, Loop Capital.

傑弗裡·史蒂文森，Loop Capital。

Hi. Thanks. It's Garik Shmois, on for Jeff. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if supply constraints on the fiberglass side have any impact to volumes similar to what you saw in prior quarters? And maybe just speak broadly how you're positioned from inventories going into the fourth quarter just given the supply constraints you talked about?

你好。謝謝。我是加里克·什莫伊斯 (Garik Shmois)，替補傑夫 (Jeff)。感謝您提出我的問題。我想知道玻璃纖維方面的供應限制是否會對產量產生任何影響，類似於您在前幾季看到的情況？也許只是廣泛地談談考慮到您談到的供應限制，您對進入第四季度的庫存的定位如何？

Yeah. Good morning. It's Robert. So third quarter saw some fluctuations relative to supply. I would say it was tighter to start the quarter. Eased up in some of the choppier markets somewhat during the third quarter, maybe in the August timeframe or early September. But as some maintenance started hitting and some unplanned maintenance started hitting, definitely, material tightened up again here as we came through October. So a little fluctuation in that. Some impact in Q3 from a tight environment.

是的。早安.這是羅伯特.因此，第三季供應出現了一些波動。我想說的是，本季開始時情況更加緊張。一些波動較大的市場在第三季有所緩解，可能是在八月或九月初。但隨著一些維護開始進行，一些計劃外維護開始進行，毫無疑問，隨著我們進入十月，這裡的材料再次收緊。所以有一點波動。第三季的一些影響來自緊張的環境。

I'd say, sitting here going into Q4, we think we're positioned well from that perspective as we got through October. And the Knauf plant in Texas, which we mentioned, this is slower coming online. We expect it to be up and going here towards the end of the year heading into 2025. So I think we feel pretty comfortable from that perspective. Obviously, everything will be supply and demand driven there. So we'll see what happens with the starts here coming up in the next 30, 60 days as well.

我想說的是，坐在這裡進入第四季度，我們認為從這個角度來看，我們在 10 月的時候處於有利位置。我們提到的德州可耐福工廠的上線速度較慢。我們預計這一數字將在年底前持續上升，直至 2025 年。所以我認為從這個角度來看我們感覺很舒服。顯然，一切都將由供給和需求驅動。因此，我們將看看在接下來的 30、60 天內這裡的啟動會發生什麼。

Okay. Thanks for that. And just wondering if you could provide maybe some more color just geographically, what you're seeing by region.

好的。謝謝你。只是想知道您是否可以提供更多地理上的顏色，即您所看到的按地區劃分的顏色。

Sure. So if I think about -- let me just kind of think about this a little bit and maybe go through the country. So if I think about the Northeast, maybe Mid-Atlantic, maybe the Northwest, Northern California, I think we've seen some improvements there. If I look at bid activity and sales, I'd say we've seen some improvement in those areas. If I think about kind of steady, I'd say steady regions are kind of the Utah, Idaho, the Carolinas, Colorado, Dallas has continued to pull through well as well as San Antonio, Denver.

當然。所以如果我想——讓我想這個問題，也許可以走遍整個國家。因此，如果我想到東北部，也許是大西洋中部，也許是西北地區、北加州，我認為我們已經看到了一些改進。如果我看看投標活動和銷售情況，我會說我們在這些領域看到了一些改進。如果我考慮一下穩定的情況，我會說穩定的地區是猶他州、愛達荷州、卡羅來納州、科羅拉多州、達拉斯以及聖安東尼奧、丹佛，這些地區繼續保持良好狀態。

And then if I say some areas that you'd may term choppy, I'd say maybe like Southern California, certainly Arizona markets, Austin will be a good example that, Houston a little bit as well if I think about Texas. And then Florida some but it's just kind of a market-by-market there. I think maybe on a previous call or previous conference, I mentioned like the Naples area, that would be a slower one. But we continue to see Orlando be strong. And Florida has gotten a little bit of impact if you think about the hurricanes and stuff as well. So I think that one will continue to be steady and improve. But hopefully that gives you a little flavor for you around the country.

然後，如果我說一些你可能會認為波動的地區，我會說也許像南加州，當然亞利桑那州市場，奧斯汀將是一個很好的例子，如果我想到德克薩斯州，休斯敦也是一個很好的例子。然後是佛羅裡達州的一些，但這只是一個市場一個市場的情況。我想也許在之前的電話會議或之前的會議上，我提到過那不勒斯地區，那會是一個較慢的地區。但我們仍然看到奧蘭多很強大。如果你考慮一下颶風之類的事情，佛羅裡達州也受到了一些影響。所以我認為我們會繼續保持穩定並不斷進步。但希望這能為您在全國各地帶來一點風味。

No, it does. Thanks for that (inaudible).

不，確實如此。謝謝你（聽不清楚）。

Keith Hughes, Truist.

基斯‧休斯，真理主義者。

Thank you. In the fourth quarter guide, what do you expect in your multi-family business in terms of dollars in units, however you want to do it, to be down?

謝謝。在第四季度指南中，無論您想採取什麼方式，您預計您的多家族企業的單位美元數會下降多少？

Yeah, Keith. This is Rob. We don't split it out between single-family and multi-family. I mean, we're still expecting our total resi sales for the full year, I'd say, when you put it all together, we're looking the full year kind of flat on total resi sales. So you can kind of back in to a fourth quarter assumption that has a slightly negative from a resi side. And obviously, multi-family will be driving the bigger chunk of that.

是的，基斯。這是羅布。我們不會將其分為單戶住宅和多戶住宅。我的意思是，我們仍然預計全年的總 Resi 銷售額，我想說，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們認為全年的 Resi 總銷售額將持平。因此，您可以回到第四季度的假設，該假設從 Resi 方面來看略有負面。顯然，多戶家庭將推動其中更大的一部分。

Do you think -- whatever the numbers is, it seems like that's probably going to get worse at the beginning of the year. Is that directionally where you see the market going?

你是否認為——無論數字是多少，今年年初情況可能會變得更糟。您認為市場走向是這樣的嗎？

Yeah, I think multi-family will be a challenge as we move in to Q1 and Q2. But like we were talking about, we've actually seen some of our bidding activity pickup there. So we think we're going to do better than the market on that side of things. And then like I pointed out earlier, the fact that it's 10% of our total business. We don't need to see too big of an uptick on the single-family and commercial side to offset it. Obviously, 2025, a lot of variables still to be seen. But we're cautiously optimistic, like I said earlier, that it will be another year of growth.

是的，我認為當我們進入第一季和第二季時，多戶家庭將是一個挑戰。但正如我們所說，我們實際上已經看到了一些投標活動的增加。所以我們認為我們在這方面會比市場做得更好。正如我之前指出的，它占我們總業務的 10%。我們不需要看到單戶住宅和商業方面太大的增長來抵消它。顯然，2025年，還有很多變數有待觀察。但正如我之前所說，我們對這將是另一個成長的一年持謹慎樂觀的態度。

Okay.

好的。

Probably definitely tougher first half versus second half, I would say, next year

我想說，明年上半年肯定比下半年更艱難

Yeah. And I guess on the pricing side, just not been up much this year. What do you think it would take to get back to some higher inflation in terms of what you're getting from your suppliers as well as what you can put to your customers?

是的。我想在定價方面，今年漲幅不大。您認為，就您從供應商那裡獲得的東西以及可以向客戶提供的東西而言，要恢復到更高的通貨膨脹水平需要什麼？

Yeah, Keith. It's Robert. I think a couple of things, one is we definitely see the demand, I think more of even or steady increase on the single-family starts. As we talk about, you can have a -- as Rob said, we're going to perform better than the market on multi-family whatever that looks like. But a lot more fiberglass, as you very well know, goes into a single-family unit. So I think the demand side on the single-family, and I think you're going to see the codes continue to kick in here in 2025 as well. And we're seeing the builders prepare for that. We think material will be tight in 2025, but I think we're set up well for that.

是的，基斯。這是羅伯特.我認為有幾件事，一是我們肯定看到了需求，我認為單戶住宅的開工量會出現均勻或穩定的增長。正如我們所說，正如羅布所說，無論多戶型住宅是什麼樣子，我們都會比市場表現更好。但正如您所知，單戶住宅中使用的玻璃纖維要多得多。因此，我認為單戶住宅的需求面，我認為您也會在 2025 年看到這些規範繼續發揮作用。我們看到建築商正在為此做好準備。我們認為 2025 年材料將會緊張，但我認為我們已經為此做好了準備。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Welcome.

歡迎。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

拉夫·賈德羅西奇，美國銀行。

Hi guys. This is actually Shaun Calnan, on for Rafe. First, on the spray foam price changes, can you talk about the cadence of price changes there? Are they consistent or is this more of a dynamic pricing model versus fiberglass? And then how has the spread between fiberglass and spray foam changed over time?

嗨，大家好。這其實是肖恩·卡爾南（Shaun Calnan），代表拉夫（Rafe）。首先，關於噴塗泡沫的價格變化，您能談談那裡價格變化的節奏嗎？它們是否一致，或與玻璃纖維相比，這更像是動態定價模型？那麼玻璃纖維和噴塗泡沫之間的分佈隨著時間的推移而發生了怎樣的變化？

Yeah. Morning, Shaun. It's Robert. (inaudible) that question (inaudible) think about how much changed over time. As you know, if you go back during some of the material constraints of 2020 and 2021, dramatic inflation from a spray foam perspective that definitely gotten more realistic or pulled back here, I'll say, in the last 18 months. But it's still, I'm going to say, 2.5 times or potentially more than fiberglass.

是的。早安，肖恩。這是羅伯特. （聽不清楚）這個問題（聽不清楚）想想隨著時間的推移發生了多少變化。如您所知，如果您回顧 2020 年和 2021 年的一些物質限制期間，從噴塗泡沫的角度來看，戲劇性的通貨膨脹肯定變得更加現實或回落，我會說，在過去 18 個月裡。但我想說，它仍然是玻璃纖維的 2.5 倍或更多。

And then if you think about from a cost/price environment, it's pretty dynamic. There was a lot of optimism that fueled the early part of the year about the builders and energy codes and using fiberglass, especially on some really big markets like Texas, Southern California, Florida. Again, some of that's been harder for the builders to pencil out. So you saw more supply come on, more blenders come on, and that created some dynamics around the pricing cost side. We don't think that's sustainable. And so that's why we've said earlier, we think that stabilizes heading out of 2024 or early 2025. So that's kind of the dynamics of what's happened, a little bit of history as well.

如果你從成本/價格環境考慮，它是非常動態的。今年早些時候，人們對建築商、能源法規以及玻璃纖維的使用抱持著很大的樂觀情緒，尤其是在德州、南加州、佛羅裡達州等一些非常大的市場。同樣，其中一些對於建築商來說更難用鉛筆畫出來。所以你看到更多的供應出現，更多的攪拌機出現，這在定價成本方面創造了一些動態。我們認為這是不可持續的。這就是為什麼我們之前說過，我們認為這種情況會在 2024 年或 2025 年初趨於穩定。這就是所發生的事情的動態，也有一點歷史。

Okay. Got it. And then you mentioned that you guys are looking at opportunities to expand the addressable market. Can you just kind of expand on what those opportunities are that you're evaluating? Are these new products or markets? And then is it more on the Installation or Distribution side?

好的。知道了。然後你提到你們正在尋找擴大目標市場的機會。您能否詳細說明您正在評估的這些機會是什麼？這些是新產品還是新市場？那麼更多的是安裝方面還是分送方面呢？

Yes. I think relative to growth and M&A, I mean, we're always looking at any opportunities in our core business. I mean, whenever we really think about our core business, there's so much runway still left in our core business. Whenever we think about our residential, commercial, industrial, around building insulation, and commercial and mechanical industrial insulation solution. So a lot of runway there. So as we look at acquisitions, we're already looking at geographies where would be good opportunities for us or MSA. So plenty of runway there that drives into our thoughts.

是的。我認為相對於成長和併購，我們一直在尋找核心業務中的任何機會。我的意思是，每當我們真正考慮我們的核心業務時，我們的核心業務仍然有很多發展空間。每當我們想到住宅、商業、工業、建築隔熱以及商業和機械工業隔熱解決方案時。那裡有很多跑道。因此，當我們考慮收​​購時，我們已經在尋找對我們或 MSA 有良好機會的地區。那裡有很多跑道可以引起我們的思考。

And as we look longer term, the two to three years, it's really about these core competencies. Given our history of going back pre-TopBuild, we really learned a lot about M&A and I think you've seen a very successful track record since 2017 in this business, and it's because you've got to build M&A off core competencies.

當我們放眼長遠（兩到三年）時，這實際上與這些核心能力有關。考慮到我們在TopBuild 之前的歷史，我們確實學到了很多關於併購的知識，我認為自2017 年以來，您在這個行業已經看到了非常成功的記錄，這是因為您必須在核心能力之外建立併購。

I've talked about our core competencies, which goes from a culture to our comfort level and confidence that we have around M&A and running this dispersed model with central support in the background. We're very, very good at labor. We're very good at driving productivity and the model and supply chain leverage. And so we're not going to do anything outside those core competencies, and that's how we think about it and it has given us really good line of sight as to what that looks like here in the coming timeframe.

我已經談到了我們的核心競爭力，從文化到我們對併購的舒適度和信心，以及在後台中央支持下運行這種分散的模式。我們非常非常擅長勞動。我們非常擅長提高生產力以及模式和供應鏈的槓桿作用。因此，我們不會做任何超出這些核心能力的事情，這就是我們的想法，它讓我們對未來的時間框架內的情況有了很好的了解。

Does that complete your question?

這完成了你的問題嗎？

Yes. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

Ken Zener, Seaport Research.

肯‧齊納，海港研究中心。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Morning.

早晨。

Appreciate your comments regionally. I like your positive steady and choppy market definition given that you and a competitor have probably the best data on housing -- new housing activity in terms of bids. Within that context, could you maybe just comment on how your salespeople are conveying positive steady and choppy to you in terms of like the bidding? Is there a price pressure? There's obviously volume pressure given the rising number of finished homes that builders have, right? It seems like they're pulling back on starts a little bit, and obviously, rates have gone up in the last six weeks. But could you maybe give us some context for this if it's a supply issue, it's a demand issue? If your teams are saying pricing is an issue or they're pushing back on it.

感謝您的區域評論。我喜歡你積極的穩定和波動的市場定義，因為你和競爭對手可能擁有最好的住房數據——就投標而言的新住房活動。在這種情況下，您能否評論一下您的銷售人員如何在出價等方面向您傳達積極、穩定和波動的訊息？有價格壓力嗎？鑑於建築商的成品房數量不斷增加，顯然存在數量壓力，對嗎？看起來他們正在稍微減少開工率，顯然，過去六週利率有所上升。但是，如果這是一個供應問題，或者是一個需求問題，您能否給我們一些背景資訊？如果您的團隊認為定價是一個問題或他們正在反對它。

But also, given your perspective, does this make sense what's happening, just kind of micro cycles where it takes a little bit to get adjusted to interest rates? It's very interesting and I think your view matters. Thank you.

但從你的角度來看，這是否有意義，這只是一種微週期，需要一點時間來適應利率？這很有趣，我認為你的觀點很重要。謝謝。

Hey Ken. It's Robert. I'll start. I'm sure Rob will have some color to add as well. So one of the really good things about central ERP that we have is we're able to see those bid rates looking out across the country, by geography, by MSA. And so that drives our commentary as well as our cadence with a feel of understanding what they're seeing.

嘿肯。這是羅伯特.我開始吧。我相信羅布也會有一些補充。因此，我們擁有的中央 ERP 的真正好處之一是我們能夠看到全國範圍內、按地理位置、按 MSA 的出價率。因此，這推動了我們的評論和節奏，讓我們有一種理解他們所看到的感覺。

But I think you're right. I think there's this calibration time period of addressing some of the political uncertainty, those types of things that's going to happen as well as. So it's probably an adjustment period that happens. But I would say, obviously, talking to our builders, which we do, about what their outlook is for 2025, whether it be first half, back half, that type of thing, that's where we get our information from. And that's pretty fact-based coming from a combination of our conversations, our field people, as well as what we can see from a bid weight perspective in our ERP system.

但我認為你是對的。我認為有一個校準時間段來解決一些政治不確定性，以及即將發生的那些類型的事情。所以這可能是個調整期。但我想說，顯然，我們正在與我們的建築商交談，了解他們對 2025 年的展望，無論是上半年、下半年還是這類事情，這就是我們獲取資訊的地方。這是非常基於事實的，來自我們的對話、現場人員以及我們從 ERP 系統中的投標權重角度看到的內容。

I mean, I'll just add to that, Ken. I think it as Robert stressed earlier, it's really a market-by-market situation out there. Even within states like Florida and Texas, we're seeing differences. So that's the choppiness we refer to. And I think ultimately, from a broader view, rate certainty, we definitely saw as rates went up, that rate certainty played a big player there. As rates were going up, people hit pause. And then once rates stabilized and people realize the 3% in mortgages weren't coming back anytime soon, demand came back. Obviously, the buydowns from the builders have helped that a lot too. But now with rates heading the other direction, at some point we hope, right, you're kind of seeing that same pause button, I think, from some buyers out there where they're saying, okay, well, if I can get this cheaper in a few months, I'll sit here on the sideline. So I think that's a big driving factor behind what we're seeing there and the choppiness,

我的意思是，我要補充一點，肯恩。我認為正如羅伯特之前強調的那樣，這實際上是一個逐個市場的情況。即使在佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州等州內，我們也看到了差異。這就是我們所說的不穩定。我認為最終，從更廣泛的角度來看，利率確定性，我們肯定會看到，隨著利率上升，利率確定性在那裡發揮了重要作用。隨著利率上升，人們暫停了。然後，一旦利率穩定下來，人們意識到 3% 的抵押貸款利率不會很快恢復，需求就會恢復。顯然，建築商的買斷也對此有很大幫助。但現在，隨著利率朝另一個方向發展，我們希望，在某些時候，我想，你會看到同樣的暫停按鈕，來自一些買家，他們會說，好吧，好吧，如果我能得到幾個月後這個會更便宜，我會坐在一邊。所以我認為這是我們所看到的情況和波動背後的一個重要驅動因素，

As we said, the long-term fundamentals are solid. And so those things do breakthroughs here where people get comfortable and the environment rates do stabilize, you get some of the uncertainty out of the way, and maybe even filter through some of the promises that have been made from that perspective. We definitely will be ready from a TopBuild perspective. As you know, Ken, labor is a strength for us. We feel good about the material situation and how we're situated there as well. So I think as things do improve, we're going to be ready.

正如我們所說，長期基本面是堅實的。因此，這些事情在這裡取得了突破，人們感到舒適，環境比率確實穩定，你消除了一些不確定性，甚至可能過濾掉從這個角度做出的一些承諾。從 TopBuild 的角度來看，我們肯定會做好準備。正如你所知，肯，勞動對我們來說是一種力量。我們對物質條件以及我們所處的位置感覺良好。所以我認為，隨著情況有所改善，我們就會做好準備。

I really appreciate that. And maybe if I could come at it from another angle. Because you have a broad perspective on the national housing and I think people like myself get sometimes overly biased by what the public builders are saying. So many of the public builders are calling for like 10% growth. Is that kind of consistent with the public versus the private delta as they think about their business next year? Because starts probably aren't growing 10% overall, but many builders are looking for 10% growth. Does that mean the publics are still gaining a lot of shares? Or is that really just that we're focused on Orlando, Dallas, and not enough on Michigan or these smaller markets? Thank you.

我真的很感激。也許我可以從另一個角度來看它。因為你對國家住房有廣泛的看法，我認為像我這樣的人有時會對公共建築商的言論產生過度偏見。許多公共建築商都呼籲實現 10% 左右的成長。這與公眾與私人三角洲在考慮明年的業務時是否一致？因為整體開工率可能不會成長 10%，但許多建築商正在尋求 10% 的成長。這是否意味著公眾仍在獲得大量股份？或者這真的只是我們專注於奧蘭多、達拉斯，而對密西根或這些較小的市場關注不夠？謝謝。

Yeah. As we think about our custom builders, which do major work, custom builders and the regional builders, they'll, I think, be back at a stabilized rate environment. And while they're expecting that, they expect a nice improvement in their business as well. Because they haven't been able to do the buydowns and stuff that large publics have. So as you get to that more stable environment and the outlook for those moderating rates, I'd say the regionals and the small custom builders feel positive as well.

是的。當我們考慮從事主要工作的客製化建築商、客製化建築商和區域建築商時，我認為他們將回到穩定的利率環境。在他們期待這一點的同時，他們也期望自己的業務能得到很好的改善。因為他們無法像大眾那樣進行購買和做一些事情。因此，當你進入更穩定的環境和這些適度利率的前景時，我想說區域和小型客製化建築商也感到積極。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Welcome

歡迎

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Adam Baumgarten, Zelman & Associates.

亞當‧鮑姆加滕 (Adam Baumgarten)，Zelman & Associates。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Just on the pricing side, can you put a finer point on the magnitude of the headwind to overall pricing from the spray foam declines? Just because I know you had talked about the fiberglass side improving on a year-over-year basis from 2Q to 3Q, but I think it was offset by spray foam. So any color on the magnitude just so we can get have a better apples-to-apples comparison on the fiberglass side?

嘿。大家早安。僅在定價方面，您能否更詳細說明噴霧泡沫下降對整體定價的不利程度？只是因為我知道您談到玻璃纖維方面從第二季度到第三季度同比有所改善，但我認為它被噴塗泡沫抵消了。那麼，震級上的任何顏色只是為了讓我們能夠在玻璃纖維方面進行更好的同類比較嗎？

Yeah. This is Rob. I'd say the spray foam impact, it was about 130 basis points on the price. And then the other thing to keep in mind when you look at our price number too is it's a price mix, right? So as you see shifts in customer regions or products, we also have some impacts there. But by far, the biggest headwind to the improvement in fiberglass was the spray foam price decreases and that was about 130 basis points.

是的。這是羅布。我想說的是噴霧泡沫的影響，價格大約上漲了 130 個基點。當您查看我們的價格數字時，要記住的另一件事是它是價格組合，對嗎？因此，當您看到客戶區域或產品的變化時，我們也會對其產生一些影響。但到目前為止，玻璃纖維改善的最大阻力是噴塗泡沫價格下降，約 130 個基點。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then just to clarify on the kind of tightening of the guidance range and the midpoint coming down, was that solely due to lower single-family or just overall residential growth in general, not any change at this point in your C&I outlooks?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後澄清一下指導範圍的收緊和中點的下降，這僅僅是由於單戶住宅的下降還是整體住宅增長的總體下降，目前您的 C&I 前景沒有任何變化？

Yeah. I'd say it was definitely resi focused, not C&I. The drop last quarter was more driven by the choppiness in C&I. This quarter, I'd say, it's residential and primarily multi-family, right? Some of the backlog we thought would come through in the third quarter, we saw some delays with some of that backlog. So definitely seeing some slowing on the multi-family side.

是的。我想說，這絕對是專注於 Resi，而不是 C&I。上個季度的下降更多是由工商業的波動造成的。我想說，這個季度是住宅區，而且主要是多戶住宅，對嗎？我們原以為一些積壓的訂單會在第三季完成，但我們發現其中一些積壓的訂單出現了一些延遲。因此，多戶住宅方面肯定會出現一些放緩。

And then it's important to keep in mind the hurricanes too, right? Certainly, the midpoint and higher end of our range didn't contemplate the hurricanes that we've seen in the third and fourth quarter. Now I'd say it was about a $10-million impact in Q3 and roughly about $8 million here in Q4.

然後，記住颶風也很重要，對吧？當然，我們範圍的中點和高端並未考慮我們在第三季和第四季看到的颶風。現在我想說，第三季的影響約為 1000 萬美元，第四季的影響約為 800 萬美元。

Got it. Thanks. Best of luck.

知道了。謝謝。祝你好運。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. Mr. Buck, I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。巴克先生，我想將發言權交還給您以供結束發言。

We appreciate you joining us today and your interest in TopBuild. We look forward to seeing many of you in person at conferences later this month and in December. Thank you.

我們感謝您今天加入我們以及您對 TopBuild 的興趣。我們期待在本月晚些時候和 12 月的會議上見到你們中的許多人。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。