紐約梅隆銀行 (BK) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the 2025 first-quarter earnings conference call hosted by BNY. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference call and webcast will be recorded and will consist of copyrighted material. You may not record or rebroadcast these materials without BNY's consent.

早上好，歡迎參加BNY主辦的2025年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，本次電話會議和網路廣播將被錄音，並包含受版權保護的資料。未經 BNY 同意，您不得錄製或轉播這些資料。

I will now turn the call over to Marius Merz, BNY Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將電話轉給紐約銀行投資者關係主管 Marius Merz。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our first-quarter earnings call. I'm joined by Robin Vince, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dermot McDonogh, our Chief Financial Officer. As always, we will reference our quarterly update presentation, which can be found on the Investor Relations page of our website at bny.com.

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安，歡迎參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。和我一起出席的還有我們的總裁兼執行長羅賓文斯 (Robin Vince)；以及我們的財務長 Dermot McDonogh。與往常一樣，我們將參考我們的季度更新演示文稿，該演示文稿可在我們網站 bny.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。

I'll note that our remarks will contain forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Information about these statements and non-GAAP measures is available in the earnings press release, financial supplement, and quarterly update presentation, all of which can be found on the investor relations page of our website. Forward-looking statements made on this call speak only as of today, April 11, 2025, and will not be updated.

我要指出的是，我們的評論將包含前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則指標。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。有關這些聲明和非公認會計準則指標的資訊可在收益新聞稿、財務補充和季度更新報告中查閱，所有這些資訊均可在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上找到。本次電話會議所作的前瞻性陳述僅截至 2025 年 4 月 11 日有效，且不會更新。

With that, I will turn it over to Robin.

說完這些，我會把麥克風交給羅賓。

Thanks, Marius. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'd like to start with a few broader comments before Dermot takes you through the financial results for the quarter. Reflecting on the operating environment, while there were clear signs of optimism at the beginning of the year, we have now seen a rapid and significant reversal of sentiment, driven by uncertainty about trade and fiscal policies, which added to existing tail risks, including a variety of geopolitical tensions and conflicts.

謝謝，馬呂斯。大家早安。感謝您加入我們。在 Dermot 向您介紹本季的財務表現之前，我想先發表一些更廣泛的評論。回顧經營環境，儘管年初出現了明顯的樂觀跡象，但現在我們看到市場情緒出現迅速而顯著的逆轉，這主要是由於貿易和財政政策的不確定性，加劇了現有的尾部風險，包括各種地緣政治緊張局勢和衝突。

Last week's tariff announcements were clearly part of a broader strategy and an effort to reset trade relations between the US and the rest of the world. This is an attempt at a very fundamental change. And while last week's announcements provided an initial baseline, we should expect that negotiations will take time, and it is likely that a clear final picture won't be reached for a while, a view re-emphasized by Wednesday's news on a three-month pause and the market volatility we saw again yesterday.

上週的關稅公告顯然是更廣泛戰略的一部分，也是重塑美國與世界其他國家貿易關係的努力。這是一次根本性變革的嘗試。雖然上週的公告提供了初步基礎，但我們應該預期談判將需要時間，並且很可能在一段時間內無法達成明確的最終結果，週三有關三個月暫停的消息以及我們昨天再次看到的市場波動再次強調了這一觀點。

The read-through of this uncertainty into both capital markets and the real economy creates elevated risks in the near and medium term. In times like this, being positioned conservatively with balance sheet strength and operational resilience allows us to remain focused on serving our clients and continuing to execute on the ongoing transformation of BNY into a more platforms-oriented company.

這種不確定性對資本市場和實體經濟的影響將在短期和中期內造成風險上升。在這樣的時期，透過維持資產負債表實力和營運彈性的保守定位，我們可以繼續專注於服務客戶，並繼續推動紐約銀行向更以平台為導向的公司的轉型。

Turning to the quarter and referring to page 2 of the quarterly update presentation, we delivered a very solid financial performance in the first quarter. Earnings per share of $1.58 were up 26% year over year on a reported basis and up 22% excluding notable items. Total revenue of $4.8 billion was up 6% year over year.

回顧本季度，參考季度更新報告的第 2 頁，我們在第一季取得了非常穩健的財務表現。每股收益為 1.58 美元，按報告基礎計算年增 26%，扣除重大項目後成長 22%。總營收 48 億美元，年增 6%。

Expenses around the company remained well controlled, up 2% year over year. Taken together, we delivered another quarter of meaningful positive operating leverage, 346 basis points on a reported basis and 261 basis points excluding notable items. Our pre-tax margin improved to 32%, and our return on tangible common equity improved to 24%.

公司各項費用仍為良好控制，較去年同期成長2%。整體而言，我們在本季再次實現了有意義的正經營槓桿，按報告基礎計算為 346 個基點，不包括顯著項目則為 261 個基點。我們的稅前利潤率提高至 32%，有形普通股權益回報率提高至 24%。

As I've noted before, BNY plays a central role in global markets, powering our clients with platforms across custody, security settlement, collateral payments, trading, wealth, investments, and more in over 100 markets around the world. Notwithstanding the current environment, we continue to see a meaningful opportunity from our work to better align ourselves as an integrated financial services platforms company.

正如我之前提到的，紐約銀行在全球市場中發揮核心作用，為我們的客戶提供遍布全球 100 多個市場的託管、證券結算、抵押貸款支付、交易、財富、投資等平台。儘管當前環境如此，我們仍然從工作中看到一個有意義的機會，可以更好地將自己定位為綜合金融服務平台公司。

Our transformation strategy includes both a new commercial coverage approach and our strategic platforms operating model, which together are designed to enhance the client experience and enable greater agility. The execution of this strategy is a significant exercise in change management, which requires hard work and takes time, but our teams around the world have embraced the opportunity and we are making progress.

我們的轉型策略包括新的商業覆蓋方法和策略平台營運模式，旨在共同提升客戶體驗並實現更高的靈活性。這項策略的實施是變革管理的重要工作，需要艱苦的努力和時間，但我們在世界各地的團隊已經抓住了這一機遇，我們正在取得進展。

This past quarter marked the first anniversary since we started the phased transition into our new operating model. And just one year in, we have more than half of BNY working in this new way. Already, we are starting to see how this transformation can drive top-line growth with greater scalability.

上個季度是我們開始分階段過渡到新營運模式一週年。光是一年時間，紐約銀行就有一半以上的員工採用這種新方式來開展工作。我們已經開始看到這種轉變如何以更大的可擴展性推動營收成長。

For instance, over the past year, our trade finance team is processing trade loans 60% faster. Our enterprise onboarding team is also working faster while seeing a more than 30% increase in onboarding volume. And our payments team has tripled the number of currencies we offer our bank clients to support consumer activity.

例如，在過去的一年裡，我們的貿易融資團隊處理貿易貸款的速度提高了 60%。我們的企業入職團隊的工作速度也加快了，同時入職量增加了 30% 以上。我們的支付團隊將為銀行客戶提供的貨幣數量增加了兩倍，以支援消費者活動。

Complementing our platform work and building on the momentum with which we entered the year, our new commercial coverage model is proving increasingly effective in enabling more integrated client solutions from across the entire company. The first three months of the year represented our strongest sales quarter on record. The number of clients who bought from three or more lines of business has increased by 40% over the past two years, and we continued to see outsized sales growth with those multi-line of business clients.

作為我們平台工作的補充，並基於我們進入新的一年的勢頭，我們的新商業覆蓋模式已被證明能夠越來越有效地為整個公司提供更整合的客戶解決方案。今年前三個月是我們有史以來最強勁的銷售季度。在過去兩年中，從三個或更多業務線購買產品的客戶數量增加了 40%，我們繼續看到這些多業務線客戶的銷售大幅成長。

In just one example, a large privately held multinational company where BNY has acted as custodian for the pension plan and corporate cash portfolio, where we provide corporate trust and debt capital market services and we provide wealth management to the company's senior executives, we recently expanded our relationship to also include supporting the company's collateral needs and managing short-term cash through our LiquidityDirect platform.

僅舉一個例子，一家大型私人控股跨國公司，紐約銀行擔任其退休金計劃和公司現金投資組合的託管人，我們為其提供公司信託和債務資本市場服務，並為該公司的高級管理人員提供財富管理，我們最近擴大了與該公司的關係，還包括支持該公司的抵押品需求並通過我們的 LiquidityDirect 平台管理短期現金。

As I've said before, effectively cross selling the breadth of our platforms in this way and at scale represents the single most compelling growth opportunity for our company. As an institution with a long history of innovation, we have not forgotten that delivering new solutions is another important way for us to be more for our clients and to drive top-line growth.

正如我之前所說，以這種方式大規模地有效交叉銷售我們的平台廣度代表著我們公司最具吸引力的成長機會。作為一家擁有悠久創新歷史的機構，我們始終沒有忘記，提供新的解決方案是我們為客戶提供更多服務並推動收入成長的另一個重要方式。

We recently welcomed Carolyn Weinberg to the company as a member of the executive committee. She is now our Chief Product and Innovation Officer. Many people across our organization are focused on innovating new capabilities, instant payments, digital assets, wealth tech, private markets, collateral liquidity, all examples of domains where we are innovating. The addition of Carolyn in this new role will increase our leadership bandwidth to drive innovative new commercial opportunities and find new ways to leverage our platforms and data for client solutions.

我們最近歡迎 Carolyn Weinberg 加入公司並成為執行委員會成員。她現在是我們的首席產品和創新長。我們組織中的許多人都專注於創新新功能、即時支付、數位資產、財富科技、私人市場、抵押品流動性，這些都是我們正在創新的領域的例子。卡羅琳擔任這項新職務將增強我們的領導力，從而推動創新的新商業機會，並找到利用我們的平台和數據為客戶提供解決方案的新方法。

While on the topic of innovation, I also want to take a moment to specifically call out the opportunity we see from AI at BNY. We've been taking a platform-based approach to AI capabilities, building and deploying solutions at scale with resilient, responsible guardrails throughout. We believe that our AI platform is going to be an important advantage for us as a large language model agnostic design leveraging frontier models from multiple leading providers.

在談到創新時，我還想花點時間特別指出我們在紐約銀行看到的人工智慧帶來的機會。我們一直採用基於平台的方法來實現人工智慧功能，在整個過程中建構和部署具有彈性、負責任的護欄的解決方案。我們相信，作為一個利用來自多個領先供應商的前沿模型的大型語言模型不可知設計，我們的人工智慧平台將成為我們的一個重要優勢。

To that end, in the first quarter, we announced a multi-year agreement with OpenAI, giving BNY access to cutting-edge tools and working with OpenAI to advance AI use cases in financial services. Over 80% of our employees have completed the prerequisite training to access Eliza, our AI platform. And more than 8,000 of them are already experimenting with personal AI agents, honing the skills they need to use AI effectively.

為此，我們在第一季宣布與 OpenAI 達成多年協議，讓紐約銀行能夠使用尖端工具，並與 OpenAI 合作推進金融服務領域的人工智慧用例。我們超過 80% 的員工已經完成了造訪我們的 AI 平台 Eliza 的先決培訓。其中超過 8,000 人已開始試驗個人人工智慧代理，磨練有效使用人工智慧所需的技能。

To date, we have deployed more than 40 AI solutions into production, with a significant additional number at various stages of building and testing. Collectively, we expect these to drive productivity gains, improved risk management, and to provide meaningful leverage to our people in the future. We strongly believe that by empowering our people with AI to do what we do better every day, we will harness great benefits over the coming years.

到目前為止，我們已經在生產中部署了 40 多個 AI 解決方案，還有大量解決方案處於建置和測試的各個階段。總的來說，我們期望這些措施能提高生產力，改善風險管理，並為我們未來的員工提供有意義的槓桿作用。我們堅信，透過利用人工智慧賦予我們的員工權力，使他們每天做得更好，我們將在未來幾年獲得巨大的利益。

Before I hand the call over to Dermot, I want to close where I began. While the outlook for the operating environment has become more uncertain, we are prepared for a wide range of macroeconomic and market scenarios. Our ongoing work to operate BNY as a more platforms-oriented company, combined with our highly capitalized liquid and lower credit risk balance sheet positions us to manage dynamically and act as a source of strength as we support our clients in navigating the current environment.

在我將電話交給 Dermot 之前，我想先結束剛才的演講。儘管經營環境的前景變得更加不確定，但我們已為各種宏觀經濟和市場情景做好了準備。我們持續致力於將紐約銀行營運為更以平台為導向的公司，再加上我們資本雄厚的流動性和較低的信用風險資產負債表，使我們能夠進行動態管理，並成為我們支持客戶應對當前環境的力量來源。

I'd like to thank our people around the world for bringing intensity and excellence to drive us forward as one BNY. And with that, over to you, Dermot.

我要感謝我們在世界各地的員工，是他們付出了努力和卓越，推動我們作為一個紐約銀行不斷前進。現在，輪到你了，德莫特。

Thank you, Robin. And good morning, everyone. I'm starting with our consolidated financial results for the quarter on page 3 of the presentation. Total revenue of $4.8 billion was up 6% year over year. And excluding notable items, total revenue was up 5%. Fee revenue was up 3%. That included 6% growth in investment services fees in our Securities Services and Market and Wealth Services segments driven by net new business and higher market values.

謝謝你，羅賓。大家早安。我先介紹一下簡報第 3 頁的本季綜合財務表現。總營收 48 億美元，年增 6%。除掉重要項目外，總收入成長了 5%。費用收入成長了3%。其中包括，受淨新業務和更高的市場價值推動，我們的證券服務和市場及財富服務部門的投資服務費增加了 6%。

Investment management and performance fees were down 5%, driven by the mix of AUM flows and an adjustment for certain rebates, partially offset by higher market values. While not on the page, I will note that firm-wide AUCA of $53.1 trillion were up 9% year over year, reflecting client inflows, higher market values, and net new business. And assets under management of $2 trillion were flat year over year as higher market values were offset by cumulative net outflows. Foreign exchange revenue was up 3% year over year, driven by higher spreads on the back of higher volatility.

投資管理費和績效費下降了 5%，這主要是由於 AUM 流量組合和某些回扣的調整，但被更高的市場價值部分抵消。雖然沒有寫在紙上，但我要指出的是，全公司的 AUCA 為 53.1 兆美元，年增 9%，反映了客戶流入、更高的市場價值和淨新業務。由於市場價值上升被累計淨流出所抵消，2兆美元的管理資產與去年同期持平。外匯收入年增 3%，這得益於波動性增加導致利差擴大。

Investment in other revenue was $230 million, which included a $40 million disposal gain, a notable item in the quarter. Net interest income was up 11% year over year, driven by the reinvestment of maturing investment securities at higher yields, partially offset by changes in deposit mix. Provision for credit losses was $18 million in the quarter, reflecting reserve increases relating to commercial real estate exposure.

其他收入投資為 2.3 億美元，其中包括 4,000 萬美元的處置收益，這是本季的一項值得注意的項目。淨利息收入年增 11%，這得益於到期投資證券以較高收益率進行再投資，但存款組合的變化部分抵消了這一增長。本季信貸損失準備金為 1800 萬美元，反映了與商業房地產風險相關的儲備金增加。

Expenses of $3.3 billion were up 2% year over year, driven by higher investments and employee merit increases, partially offset by efficiency savings. Taken together, we reported earnings per share of $1.58 on both a reported and on an operating basis. Excluding the impact of notable items, earnings per share were up 22% year over year. Our pre-tax margin was 32%, and our return on tangible common equity was 24% in the quarter.

支出為 33 億美元，年增 2%，這得益於投資增加和員工績效提升，但被效率節約部分抵銷。總體而言，我們報告的每股收益和營業收益均為 1.58 美元。排除重大專案的影響，每股盈餘較去年同期成長22%。本季我們的稅前利潤率為 32%，有形普通股權益報酬率為 24%。

Turning to capital and liquidity on page 4, our Tier 1 leverage ratio for the quarter was 6.2%. The sequential increase reflects capital generated through earnings, preferred stock issuance, and improved accumulated other comprehensive income, partially offset by capital distributed through common stock repurchases and dividends.

翻到第 4 頁的資本和流動性，我們本季的一級槓桿率為 6.2%。這一連續成長反映了透過收益、優先股發行和增加累計其他綜合收入而產生的資本，但部分被透過普通股回購和股息分配的資本所抵消。

Our CET1 ratio at the end of the quarter was 11.5%. The sequential increase reflects the before-mentioned increase in capital, partially offset by higher risk-weighted assets. Over the course of the first quarter, we returned approximately $1.1 billion of capital to our common shareholders, representing a 95% total payout ratio year to date. With regards to liquidity, the consolidated liquidity coverage ratio was 116%, and the consolidated net stable funding ratio was 132%.

本季末我們的 CET1 比率為 11.5%。這一連續成長反映了前述資本的增加，但被風險加權資產的增加部分抵消。在第一季度，我們向普通股股東返還了約 11 億美元的資本，年初至今的總股息率為 95%。流動性方面，合併流動性覆蓋率為116%，合併淨穩定資金率為132%。

Next, net interest income and balance sheet trends on page 5. Net interest income of $1.2 billion was up 11% year over year and down 3% quarter over quarter. The sequential decrease reflects changes in balance sheet size and mix, partially offset by the continued reinvestment of maturing investment securities at higher yields.

接下來，第 5 頁是淨利息收入和資產負債表趨勢。淨利息收入為 12 億美元，年增 11%，季減 3%。環比下降反映了資產負債表規模和結構的變化，但持續以較高收益率進行到期投資證券的再投資部分抵消。

Average interest earning assets decreased by 1% sequentially, including lower cash and reverse repo balances, partially offset by higher investment securities and loan balances. Average deposit balances also decreased by 1% sequentially, reflecting lower non-interest-bearing balances compared to the seasonally strong fourth quarter. Average interest-bearing deposit balances remained flat.

平均生息資產季減 1%，包括現金和逆回購餘額下降，但被投資證券和貸款餘額上升部分抵銷。平均存款餘額也較上季下降 1%，反映出與季節性強勁的第四季相比，無息餘額有所下降。平均計息存款餘額維持不變。

Turning to our business segments starting on page 6, Securities Services reported total revenue of $2.3 billion, up 8% year over year. Total investment services fees were up 4% year over year. In asset servicing, investment services fees grew by 5%, reflecting higher market values and a net new business. And in issuer services, investment services fees were up 2%, driven by net new business in corporate trust.

從第 6 頁開始查看我們的業務部門，證券服務部門報告的總收入為 23 億美元，年增 8%。總投資服務費較去年同期成長4%。在資產服務方面，投資服務費成長了 5%，反映了更高的市場價值和淨新業務。在發行人服務方面，受企業信託淨新業務的推動，投資服務費上漲了 2%。

In this segment, foreign exchange revenue was up 10% year over year, driven by higher spreads on the back of higher volatility. Investment in other revenue of $140 million in the quarter included the $40 million disposal gain that I mentioned earlier. Net interest income for the segment was up 8% year over year. Segment expenses of $1.6 billion were up 3% year over year, driven by higher investments, revenue-related expenses, and employee merit increases, partially offset by efficiency savings. Securities Services reported pre-tax income of $708 million, up 20% year over year, and a pre-tax margin of 31%.

在這一領域，外匯收入年增 10%，這得益於波動性增加導致利差擴大。本季其他收入投資 1.4 億美元，其中包括我之前提到的 4,000 萬美元的處置收益。該部門淨利息收入較去年同期成長8%。該部門支出為 16 億美元，年增 3%，主要原因是投資增加、與收入相關的支出以及員工績效加薪，但效率節約部分抵消了這一影響。證券服務部門報告稅前收入為 7.08 億美元，年增 20%，稅前利潤率為 31%。

On to Market and Wealth Services on page 7. In our Market and Wealth Services segment, we reported total revenue of $1.7 billion, up 11% year over year. Total investment services fees were up 8% year over year. In Pershing, investment services fees were up 4%, driven by higher market values and net new business.

請參閱第 7 頁的市場和財富服務。在我們的市場和財富服務部門，我們報告的總收入為 17 億美元，年增 11%。總投資服務費較去年同期成長8%。在潘興，受市場價值上升和淨新業務推動，投資服務費上漲了 4%。

Net new assets were $11 billion in the quarter, and we started off the year with a meaningful renewal from Cambridge Investment Research, a long-time client and a growing independent firm. In Clearance and Collateral Management, investment services fees were up 10%, driven by broad-based growth in clearance volumes and collateral balances. And in Treasury Services, investment services fees were up 14% driven by net new business.

本季淨新增資產為 110 億美元，我們在新年伊始就與我們的長期客戶、成長型獨立公司劍橋投資研究公司 (Cambridge Investment Research) 達成了意義重大的續約。在清算和抵押品管理方面，投資服務費上漲了 10%，這得益於清算量和抵押品餘額的廣泛增長。在財務服務方面，受淨新業務推動，投資服務費上漲了 14%。

Net interest income for the segment overall was up 17% year over year. Segment expenses of $866 million were up 4% year over year, driven by higher investments and employee merit increases partially offset by efficiency savings. Taken together, our Market and Wealth Services segments reported pre-tax income of $816 million, up 20% year over year, and a pre-tax margin of 48%.

該部門整體淨利息收入較去年同期成長17%。分部支出為 8.66 億美元，年增 4%，這主要得益於投資增加和員工績效加薪，但效率節約部分抵銷了這一影響。總體而言，我們的市場和財富服務部門報告的稅前收入為 8.16 億美元，年增 20%，稅前利潤率為 48%。

Turning to Investment and Wealth Management on page 8, our Investment and Wealth Management segment reported total revenue of $779 million, down 8% year over year. Investment management fees were down 4% year over year, driven by the mix of AUM flows and the adjustment for certain rebates, partially offset by higher market values. Segment expenses of $714 million were down 4% year over year, driven by lower revenue-related expenses and deficiency savings, partially offset by higher investments.

翻到第 8 頁的投資與財富管理，我們的投資與財富管理部門報告的總收入為 7.79 億美元，年減 8%。投資管理費較去年同期下降 4%，下降原因為 AUM 流量組合和某些回扣的調整，但被更高的市場價值部分抵消。分部支出為 7.14 億美元，年減 4%，主要由於收入相關支出和缺陷節省減少，但投資增加部分抵消了這一影響。

Investment and Wealth Management reported pre-tax income of $63 million, down 41% year over year, and a pre-tax margin of 8%. As I described earlier, assets under management of $2 trillion were flat year over year. In the first quarter, we saw $18 billion of net outflows driven by index cash, equity, and multi-asset strategies partially offset by net inflows into fixed income and LDI strategies. Wealth management client assets of $327 billion increased by 6% year over year, driven by higher market values and cumulative net inflows.

投資和財富管理部門報告稅前收入為 6,300 萬美元，年減 41%，稅前利潤率為 8%。正如我之前所述，2兆美元的管理資產與去年同期持平。第一季度，我們看到由指數現金、股票和多資產策略推動的 180 億美元淨流出，但固定收益和 LDI 策略的淨流入部分抵消了這一影響。財富管理客戶資產達 3,270 億美元，年增 6%，這得益於更高的市值和累計淨流入。

Page 9 shows the results of the Other segment. I'll just note that in this segment, the sequential improvement in both revenue and expenses reflects the absence of net losses on sales of securities recorded in the fourth quarter as well as lower severance expense in the first quarter.

第 9 頁顯示了其他部分的結果。我只想指出，在這一領域，收入和支出的連續改善反映了第四季度沒有出現證券銷售淨損失以及第一季遣散費的降低。

I'll close with a few comments on the financial guidance for 2025 that we provided on our earnings call in January. While it is clear that the outlook for the operating environment has become more uncertain, our financial guidance and with it our determination to drive positive operating leverage in a wide range of scenarios remains unchanged.

最後，我想就我們在 1 月收益電話會議上提供的 2025 年財務指引發表一些評論。儘管經營環境的前景顯然變得更加不確定，但我們的財務指導以及在各種情況下推動積極經營槓桿的決心仍然沒有改變。

That means we continue to expect full-year 2025 NII to be up mid-single-digit percentage points year over year. We continue to expect some fee revenue growth, of course market dependent. And we continue to expect approximately 1% to 2% year-over-year growth in expenses, excluding notable items. We also continue to expect our effective tax rate for the full year 2025 to be in the 22% to 23% range.

這意味著我們繼續預計 2025 年全年 NII 將年增中個位數百分點。我們繼續預期費用收入會有所成長，當然這取決於市場。我們繼續預計，不包括重大項目，支出將年增約 1% 至 2%。我們也繼續預計 2025 年全年有效稅率將在 22% 至 23% 之間。

Considering our 20% tax rate in the first quarter, that means approximately 23% to 24% for each of the remaining three quarters of the year. And we continue to expect to return approximately 100% plus or minus of 2025 earnings over the course of the year. I'll repeat what I said in January. We continuously manage the pace of our buybacks, considering macroeconomic and interest rate environments, balance sheet growth, and many other factors with a conservative bias.

考慮到我們第一季的稅率為 20%，這意味著今年剩餘三個季度的稅率約為 23% 至 24%。我們預計，今年的回報率將達到 2025 年收益的約 100% 左右。我將重複我在一月說過的話。我們持續管理回購的步伐，考慮宏觀經濟和利率環境、資產負債表成長以及許多其他具有保守傾向的因素。

To wrap up, BNY posted another set of solid results in the first quarter, which demonstrate our consistent execution and delivery. On the back of our strong balance sheet, we are focused on supporting our clients in navigating the crosscurrents of this uncertain operating environment all the while continuing to drive at unlocking the opportunity embedded in our company.

總而言之，紐約銀行在第一季再次取得了穩健的業績，證明了我們始終如一的執行力和交付能力。憑藉著強勁的資產負債表，我們專注於支持客戶應對不確定的經營環境的逆流，同時繼續努力釋放公司蘊藏的機會。

With that, operator, can you please open the line for Q&A?

接線員，您能開闢問答專線嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

（操作員指示） Ken Usdin，自主研究。

Robin, Dermot, good morning. Another really good quarter in terms of the NII generation and good deposits. I know you guys have talked about how deposit stability is important to NII generation. I know it's early in the year and we have all this uncertainty. Obviously, a better start than the run rate guide would imply. But just wondering, what do you think about just the world of deposits? Do you see any benefits in an uncertain world in terms of flows, flight to safety, and just how we should think about some of the moving parts going forward. Thanks.

羅賓、德莫特，早安。從 NII 產生和良好存款來看，這又是一個非常好的季度。我知道你們已經討論過存款穩定性對於 NII 產生的重要性。我知道現在才年初，我們還面臨許多不確定性。顯然，這是一個比運行率指南所暗示的更好的開端。但我只是想知道，您對存款世界有何看法？您是否認為在一個不確定的世界中，在流動、安全飛行以及我們應該如何看待未來的一些活動方面有任何好處？謝謝。

Thanks for the question. Look, Q1, as it relates to deposits, was right in line with our expectations in terms of balance and mix shift. Q4 is a seasonally strong quarter for us as it relates to overall balances, so we saw some of that moderate in Q1.

謝謝你的提問。你看，就存款而言，第一季在餘額和組合轉變方面完全符合我們的預期。對我們來說，第四季度是一個季節性強勁的季度，因為它與整體平衡有關，所以我們看到第一季的情況有所緩和。

Now with the elevated uncertainty and volatility in the markets over the last couple of weeks, we have seen a little pick-up in deposits overall, but not in a meaningful way that we would have seen two years ago in the regional bank crisis. So we haven't yet seen that kind of port in the storm flight to quality, but people know the strength of our balance sheet and the strength of our liquidity and capital. We have seen a little bit of a tick up but not in a way that we saw two years ago.

現在，由於過去幾週市場不確定性和波動性加劇，我們看到存款總體略有回升，但其回升幅度不如兩年前地區銀行危機時那麼顯著。因此，我們尚未看到這種在風暴中尋求品質的港灣，但人們知道我們的資產負債表的實力以及我們的流動性和資本的實力。我們看到了一些上漲，但漲幅與兩年前不同。

Okay, so we'll just see if that holds up and go from there. Just a bigger picture about just the environment we're in. You have a lot of different businesses, and this is the type of environment where we see a lot of activity potential, I guess. And it was notable to see FX a little softer.

好的，我們只需看看這是否成立，然後從那裡開始。這只是關於我們所處環境的更廣闊的圖景。你有很多不同的業務，我想，在這種環境下，我們看到了很多活動潛力。值得注意的是，外匯交易略微疲軟。

But I'm just wondering, how do you guys see this world in terms of just businesses that either get more active or potentially less active based on just how clients act and where you expect to see kind of money flows as you could think about how past cycles would be inferenced to this one? Thanks.

但我只是想知道，你們如何看待這個世界，僅僅根據客戶的行為以及您預計看到的資金流動方式，企業要么變得更加活躍，要么可能不那麼活躍，您可以思考過去的周期如何推斷出這個週期？謝謝。

Yes, Ken, I'll take that one. I think it's fair to see the phases of these types of events as sort of split into two. So there's one which tends to be a little bit more frenzied activity in the marketplace. That's what we've been seeing over the course of the past 10 days or so in terms of activity. And so that does give rise to higher volumes. And we're seeing that across our platforms for sure.

是的，肯，我會接受這個。我認為將這類事件的階段分為兩個階段是公平的。因此，市場上的活動往往會更加瘋狂。這就是我們在過去 10 天左右所看到的活動。這確實會導致產量增加。我們確實在我們的平台上看到了這一點。

Now we're not a huge trading firm like some others out there. But we see it in terms of high counts on clearing volumes, in terms of activity on liquidity platforms, collateral activity, all the places where you'd expect it to be, where we're really capturing the fact that market volumes are up. And to Dermot's point earlier on about liquidity, the reason why we probably haven't seen a big flight into us at this point is because a lot of the activity has been de-levering by people who've been raising cash to pay back lines, not raising cash just to have more dry powder on the sidelines.

現在我們不像其他一些公司那樣是一家大型貿易公司。但我們從清算量、流動性平台活動、抵押活動等所有預期的地方可以看出，我們確實捕捉到了市場交易量上升的事實。正如 Dermot 之前提到的流動性問題，我們之所以目前沒有看到大量資金湧入我們，可能是因為很多活動都是由那些籌集現金來償還貸款的人進行的去槓桿活動，而不是僅僅為了在場外擁有更多的現金而籌集現金。

It hasn't yet been as much long-only liquidation, which tends to raise cash, and that cash often ends up on our balance sheet. So it's sort of a little bit of a phasing thing. And then what can happen, and we'll have to see if that does happen -- but as things calm down, at some point, it causes CEOs and leadership teams to reflect on how do they want to think about the strategic consequences for their business.

目前還沒有出現太多的多頭清算，這往往會籌集現金，而這些現金最終往往會出現在我們的資產負債表上。所以這有點像是分階段的事情。然後會發生什麼，我們必須看看這是否真的會發生——但隨著事情平靜下來，在某個時候，它會導致執行長和領導團隊反思他們希望如何看待其業務的戰略後果。

And that's where our rentable scale and our platforms -- and the fact that we have all of these broad capabilities built on this sort of rock-solid foundation, that's what allows us to then capture potential follow-on opportunities where people say, you know what, there are things I used to do for myself that I'd now rather someone like BNY does for me using their platforms. And so that's how I think about the world right now.

這就是我們的可出租規模和平台——事實上，我們在如此堅如磐石的基礎上建立了所有這些廣泛的能力，這使我們能夠抓住潛在的後續機會，人們會說，你知道嗎，有些事情我以前自己做，現在我寧願讓像 BNY 這樣的公司利用他們的平台為我做。這就是我現在對世界的看法。

And Ken, just to clarify, you mentioned softness in FX is up 3% year over year. The numbers we present there are the firm-wide numbers. When you kind of go underneath the hood on that and talk specifically about our markets business, that was a solid year-over-year uptick. Whereas on the other side, our corporate treasury department are doing FX placements, and the other side of that is reflected in NII. So you're seeing a firm-wide view there as opposed to a specific market view. And the market view for us year over year was solid.

肯，需要澄清的是，您提到外匯疲軟程度比去年同期上升了 3%。我們在此呈現的數字是整個公司的數字。當你深入了解並具體談論我們的市場業務時，你會發現這是一個穩定的同比增長。另一方面，我們的企業財務部門正在進行外匯配置，而這另一方面則反映在NII中。因此，您看到的是整個公司的觀點，而不是特定的市場觀點。我們對市場的預期逐年穩固。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Alex Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

Hey, good morning. Thank you for the question as well. Maybe starting with a bit of a strategic question also. Just kind of thinking about the position of the bank, obviously very strong capital base, lots of liquidity. At times of uncertainty and dislocation, there might be some interesting inorganic opportunities that may come up time and again. How are you thinking about that? Maybe it's too early but just want to get your sense for appetite for M&A if something compelling comes along and if there are areas of particular interest where inorganic growth might make sense.

嘿，早安。也感謝您的提問。或許也可以從一些策略問題開始。想想銀行的地位，顯然資本基礎非常強大，流動性充足。在不確定和混亂的時期，可能會有一些有趣的無機機會一次又一次地出現。您對此有何看法？也許現在還為時過早，但如果出現引人注目的情況，並且存在無機增長可能有意義的特別感興趣的領域，那麼我只是想了解一下您對併購的興趣。

Yes, thanks, Alex. Look, we're carefully looking at the opportunities. That's not a spot moment in time thing. It's just a sort of the rhythm as this management team has been driving through things over the course of the past 2.5 years. We think we've got a lot of things under control in terms of running the company better. You can see us driving now on the sales side. You can see us driving the execution platforms. You can see the innovation. We're always going to be out there thinking about what could be additive to our platform. We just think it's the responsible thing to do for shareholders.

是的，謝謝，亞歷克斯。看，我們正在仔細尋找機會。那不是一個特定時刻的事。這只是管理團隊在過去兩年半中推動事情發展的一種節奏。我們認為，在更好地經營公司方面，我們已經控制了很多事情。你們現在可以看到我們在銷售方面正在努力。您可以看到我們正在推動執行平台。你可以看到創新。我們一直在思考什麼可以加入我們的平台。我們只是認為這是對股東負責的做法。

Now what hasn't changed is maintaining great discipline. In an acquisition, we need to check all of the boxes of clear alignment with our priorities, strong cultural fit, and I underline that because that is important to us, and attractive financial returns, obviously. But you're right. Times like this can present opportunities, and we'll be thoughtful about it.

現在沒有改變的是保持嚴格的紀律。在收購過程中，我們需要檢視所有與我們的優先事項明確一致、文化契合度高的條件，我強調這一點是因為這對我們很重要，而且顯然還能帶來有吸引力的財務回報。但你是對的。這樣的時代可能帶來機遇，我們會認真考慮。

And I feel that we've practiced some of this with our Archer acquisition. That wasn't huge; but nonetheless, it was a sort of a small- to medium-sized thing. It was a capabilities buy, but we're going through all of the training processes internally to understand how to look at and then purchase and then integrate something like that in a first-class way. And then the final thing I'll say is platforms operating model is quite additive to our capability over time to be able to, I think, be a better integrator because it creates the roadmap for us internally on how to take things and plug them in better.

我覺得我們在收購 Archer 的過程中已經實踐了其中的一些內容。那沒什麼大不了的；但儘管如此，它還是一種小型到中型的東西。這是一項能力購買，但我們正在進行內部培訓流程，以了解如何以一流的方式看待、購買和整合類似的東西。最後我想說的是，平台營運模式隨著時間的推移會大大增強我們的能力，我認為，我們可以成為一個更好的整合商，因為它為我們內部創建瞭如何更好地獲取和整合事物的路線圖。

Got you, thanks. And then my follow up is actually double-clicking into your earlier response to Ken's question around deposits. So up a little, not a ton so far in April. Can you comment also on the mix between interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing in April?

明白了，謝謝。然後我的後續行動實際上是雙擊您先前對肯關於存款的問題的回答。因此，雖然上漲了一點，但四月到目前為止上漲幅度並不大。您能否評論一下 4 月計息和非計息資產的組合情況？

And then ultimately, as you sort of think about a more normalized percentage of non-interest-bearing deposits, you guys are at 17%, I think, now. Even pre-COVID, so kind of before the spike in industry-wide liquidity, you guys were running north of 20%. How do you think about that sort of run rate mix going forward in a more sort of uncertain environment? And if, in fact, you enter in a recession, what would that likely look like?

最後，當您考慮更正常化的無利息存款百分比時，我認為現在這個比例是 17%。甚至在新冠疫情之前，也就是在整個產業流動性激增之前，你們的流動性就已經超過了 20%。在更不確定的環境中，您如何看待這種運行率組合的未來發展？如果確實陷入經濟衰退，情況會是如何呢？

So I guess there are a lot of questions in that follow-up question, Alex. But to think about the NII for a second and the reconfirmation of the guide of 5%, which we feel pretty good about, I think it goes back to something that we discussed on previous calls, which is that very, very strong joined-up partnership between the CIO, the treasurer, and our deposit desk.

所以我想後續問題中有很多問題，亞歷克斯。但是，稍微考慮一下 NII 和 5% 指導方針的重新確認，我們對此感覺非常好，我認為這可以追溯到我們在之前的電話會議上討論過的事情，即首席資訊長、財務主管和我們的存款部門之間非常非常緊密的合作夥伴關係。

And a lot of the work that drives our confidence around NII for this year are the actions that we took last summer over after Jackson Hole, where we kind of immunized the firm for 2025 NII. So a lot of work on the asset side. In terms of NIBs, as it relates to -- as rates have trended higher, you would expect a reasonable amount of cash sorting to go on and people optimize for yield. We don't lead with deposits. Clients come to us to do other activities in the firm. And with that comes deposits, which then turn into operational deposits.

許多讓我們對今年的 NII 充滿信心的工作都是我們去年夏天在傑克遜霍爾之後採取的行動，我們在某種程度上為公司在 2025 年 NII 方面做好了準備。因此在資產方面有很多工作要做。就 NIB 而言，由於利率呈上升趨勢，您會預期會進行合理數量的現金分類，並且人們會優化收益。我們不以存款為主導。客戶來找我們是為了在公司進行其他活動。隨之而來的是存款，然後變成營運存款。

So in terms of the overall guide of like the 281 number, which we have seen tick up a little bit this quarter -- and it is a seasonal business. Q4 is our strongest quarter for deposits typically. Then Q1 is a little bit less than that. Q3 is our seasonal low. So there's nothing that we see kind of changing our view of the overall deposit mix for the balance of the year, which kind of gives us a lot of confidence around the guide that we gave you.

因此，就 281 這個總體指導數字而言，我們看到本季度該數字略有上升 - 而且這是一項季節性業務。通常來說，第四季是我們存款業務最強勁的季度。那麼 Q1 就比那少一點。第三季是我們的季節性低點。因此，我們認為沒有什麼可以改變我們對今年餘額整體存款組合的看法，這讓我們對我們給您的指南充滿信心。

Great. All right, thank you, guys.

偉大的。好的，謝謝大家。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的麥克梅奧 (Mike Mayo)。

Hey, I guess my first question is, no good deed goes unpunished, so I do know your revenues are up 5% year over year and your headcount's down 2%. So you've raised the bar for yourself but did note that the non-comp expenses are growing mid-single digits year over year. I'm wondering how much that might continue. And also the impact on revenues from the decline of non-interest-bearing deposits, is that seasonal or is that something that's just a result of the macro environment? Thanks.

嘿，我想我的第一個問題是，好人有好報，所以我知道你們的收入同比增長了 5%，而員工人數減少了 2%。因此，您提高了自己的標準，但確實注意到非薪資支出逐年以中等個位數成長。我不知道這種情況會持續多久。無息存款下降對收入的影響是季節性的還是宏觀環境的影響？謝謝。

So look, Mike, I think our ability to deliver positive operating leverage through the cycle is the North Star. And I think this is the fifth quarter that we've delivered consistent positive operating leverage. And hopefully, you are beginning to give us credit for being a financially disciplined well-run company where we have got our expenses under control over the last couple of years while at the same time making investments in the strategies that are powering our top-line growth and our efficiency growth.

所以，麥克，我認為我們在整個週期中提供積極經營槓桿的能力就是北極星。我認為這是我們連續第五個季度實現持續正向經營槓桿。希望您開始認可我們是一家財務紀律嚴明、營運良好的公司，過去幾年來，我們控制了開支，同時對推動收入成長和效率成長的策略進行了投資。

And so you're beginning to see those investments paying off. And I'm pleased that you highlighted the headcount number, which just generally means that we're able to do more with less in a digitally empowered way. And as Robin mentioned in his prepared remarks, we still haven't really unlocked the power of AI. So when you think about where AI is going to be on our platform, as a financial platform company where you see 20% of the world's investable assets flowing through our pipes, when we kind of get the AI strategy integrated into the strategy of the firm, we see a lot of dividends coming in that.

所以你開始看到這些投資獲得回報。我很高興您強調了員工人數，這通常意味著我們能夠以數位化的方式用更少的資源做更多的事情。正如羅賓在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們仍然沒有真正釋放人工智慧的力量。因此，當您考慮人工智慧將在我們的平台上發揮什麼作用時，作為一家金融平台公司，您會看到全球 20% 的可投資資產流經我們的管道，當我們將人工智慧策略融入公司策略時，我們會看到很多紅利隨之而來。

And then you answered the non-interfering deposit question, which might not be answerable, but just any thoughts there?

然後您回答了不干擾存款的問題，這個問題可能無法回答，但有什麼想法嗎？

So look, non-interest-bearing deposits, I think, are roughly in line with where -- we don't really expect them to go meaningfully higher or meaningfully lower from where they are now, which reinforces our guide. So NII is made up of what we've done on the asset side and what we think the forecast is going to be in terms of the mix and the overall level of the deposits.

因此，我認為，無息存款大致與當前水準一致——我們並不真的期望它們會比現在大幅上漲或下跌，這強化了我們的指導。因此，NII 由我們在資產方面所做的工作以及我們認為的存款組合和總體水準的預測所組成。

At the end of the year, we ran about 35 different scenarios. We did the same thing at Q1. We feel we've kind of cut the tails off the risk of what we believe the reasonable outcome of NII is going to be. And to give you a little bit of an indication, if the Fed were to cut rates by 50 basis points tomorrow, it wouldn't really impact how we think about NII for the balance of the year.

截至年底，我們已運行了大約 35 種不同的場景。我們在第一季也做了同樣的事情。我們感覺我們已經在某種程度上消除了我們認為的 NII 合理結果所帶來的風險。給你一點提示，如果聯準會明天降息 50 個基點，這不會真正影響我們對今年剩餘時間 NII 的看法。

That's great. My second question is for Robin. I saw you're on CNBC, and you talked about the hard data is good, but the soft data is bad, converged one way or another. I guess it's unanswerable also, but how long can this go on before things tip? Like the hard data goes to soft data, the soft data goes back to hard data.

那太棒了。我的第二個問題是問羅賓的。我看到您在 CNBC 上說，硬數據是好的，但軟數據是壞的，無論如何都會趨於一致。我想這也是無法回答的，但是這種情況還要持續多久才會發生轉折呢？就像硬數據變成軟數據一樣，軟數據也會回到硬數據。

Do we have one month as a country and economy, one month, three months, six months, 12 months? What's your sense there? And what is the risk of being an international company and being a services company and potential retaliation there? I don't know how you'll think or frame that, but I'll take any thoughts you have. Thanks.

作為一個國家和經濟體，我們有一個月、三個月、六個月、十二個月嗎？你感覺如何？作為一家國際公司和服務公司，面臨哪些風險以及潛在的報復？我不知道你會如何思考或構思這一點，但我會接受你的任何想法。謝謝。

Sure. I love that you ask unanswerable questions, but nonetheless, I'll give them both a whirl. Okay, so first of all, yes, this point about -- and we saw it again today with the confidence taking a little bit of another beating in the survey data that was released this morning. It is. It's going down, and it's not surprising. Because if you're a CEO, you've got an uncertain environment potentially out over the horizon. It doesn't help you thinking about longer-term commitments, including building factories, including making commitments to new initiatives, or whatever the case may be.

當然。我喜歡你提出無法回答的問題，但儘管如此，我還是會嘗試。好的，首先，是的，關於這一點——我們今天再次看到這一點，今天早上發布的調查數據表明，信心再次受到打擊。這是。它正在下降，這並不奇怪。因為如果你是一名首席執行官，你可能會面臨一個不確定的環境。它無助於你考慮長期承諾，包括建造工廠、對新措施做出承諾，或任何情況。

And if you're a consumer, the fear of, are prices going to go up? What's it going to mean? Obviously, there's also a jobs angle on all of this as well. Could the economy tip into a recession? Those are all legit questions that a consumer would have. And that's going to be a little bit of a dampener of confidence. So I think there are plenty of reasons to think that that will continue to be low.

如果你是消費者，你會擔心價格會漲嗎？這是什麼意思？顯然，這一切也與就業有關。經濟會陷入衰退嗎？這些都是消費者會提出的合理問題。這將會稍微打擊人們的信心。因此我認為有充分的理由相信這一水準將持續處於低位。

And my point when I talked about this before was that the two things at some point just have to converge. And the longer that it goes on, the greater the probability that the facts converge down to the sentiment as opposed to if, for some reason, we suddenly had clarity and we suddenly had a sense of confidence being able to come back, then it would converge back up to the facts and we'd be in a better space.

我之前談論這一點時的觀點是，這兩件事在某個時候必須融合在一起。而且持續時間越長，事實與情緒趨於一致的可能性就越大，相反，如果由於某種原因，我們突然變得清晰，並且突然有了一種能夠恢復的信心，那麼它就會重新趨於事實，我們就會處於更好的空間。

But I think with a 90-day pause on tariffs and then probably a fairly long tail on full emergence of a clear picture, I think you have to be a little bit pessimistic here about how the economy is going to evolve over the course of the next six to nine months. I'd love to be wrong on that one, but I think as every day goes by, let's call it this trade has negative carry to be able to hold, so we'll see.

但我認為，由於關稅暫停 90 天，而且可能還需要相當長的時間才能完全顯現出清晰的前景，我認為你必須對未來六到九個月經濟的發展持有點悲觀的態度。我希望這一點我是錯的，但我認為隨著時間的推移，我們可以稱這筆交易為負利差，所以我們拭目以待。

On the second question that you asked internationally, look, we are a global firm. 40% of our revenues come from outside of the US, but we're also a firm that provides really critical services to our clients. And so clients always have choices, and we have to earn their business every single day with how we behave and how our platforms operate. But it is this combination of having this reputation of being trusted, having this rock-solid underpinning, which, as you know, creates this port in a storm capability, plus the fact that we do things that are really important.

關於您提出的第二個國際問題，我們是一家全球性公司。我們 40% 的收入來自美國以外，但我們也是一家為客戶提供真正關鍵服務的公司。因此，客戶總是有選擇的，我們必須透過我們的行為和平台的運作來每天贏得他們的業務。但正是這種值得信賴的聲譽、堅如磐石的基礎，正如你們所知，創造了這個港口在風暴中的能力，再加上我們所做的事情確實很重要。

Clearing treasuries for most people is not an optional activity. Having access to a global collateral platform that lets your business operate more effectively, maintaining your access to the rails of the financial system. Those are very, very core significant things. And so I'd like to think the combination of the trust, the reputation, and then the day-to-day operation will cause our clients to continue to see value with us. But obviously, that's something that we'll have to see how it evolves.

清理國庫對大多數人來說不是一項可有可無的活動。透過造訪全球抵押貸款平台，您的業務可以更有效地運營，並保持您對金融體系的訪問。這些都是非常非常重要的核心事項。因此，我認為信任、聲譽和日常營運的結合將使我們的客戶繼續看到我們的價值。但顯然，我們必須觀察事情如何發展。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Good morning. I guess maybe, Robin, just to that last point -- and Robin, you mentioned the clearing of treasuries. You have a very deep sort of understanding of the market infrastructure. There's obviously concerns around the Treasury market, what's happening, whether the Fed needs to intervene. Just give us a sort of a preview into what you've seen over the last few days. Are things working as smoothly as you would expect, and what the risk looks like there, or the need for a Fed intervention?

早安.羅賓，我想也許就最後一點而言──羅賓，你提到了國庫清算。您對市場基礎設施​​有非常深入的了解。人們顯然對國債市場有擔憂，擔心正在發生的事情以及聯準會是否需要幹預。請向我們預覽您過去幾天看到的內容。事情進展是否如您預期的那麼順利？有哪些風險？是否需要聯準會幹預？

Sure. So look, I would separate the Treasury market into a couple of different pieces. The rails of the system are working really well. We're seeing high volumes, yes, for sure, but everything's functioning really well. And we have, as you point out, a very good view into that. There was a little bit of a tail in the three-year auction, of course, as was well publicized earlier in the week. But then we had a very solid ten-year auction and long bond auction as well.

當然。所以，我會將國債市場分成幾個不同的部分。該系統的軌道運行得非常好。是的，我們確實看到了很大的交易量，但一切都運作良好。正如您所指出的，我們對此有著非常好的看法。當然，正如本週早些時候廣為人知的那樣，這場為期三年的拍賣會存在一些尾聲。但隨後我們也進行了非常穩健的十年期拍賣和長期債券拍賣。

But what has evolved, and this is not unique to treasuries in any way, we've seen it in equities as well, is that the depth at the top of the order book has reduced. And so bid-offer spreads have widened, the amount of risk that can be moved at the top of the book is much smaller, you have to go deeper into the book to be able to move blocks of risk, and that is true in the treasury market as it's been true in equity markets.

但實際情況是，訂單簿頂部的深度已經減少，而這絕不是國債獨有的現象，我們在股票市場也看到了這種情況。因此買賣價差擴大了，在帳簿頂部可以轉移的風險量要小得多，你必須更深入地了解帳簿才能轉移風險區塊，這在國債市場和股票市場都是如此。

And we've seen all the things that you'd normally expect. There's a little bit of dislocation with ETF NAVs versus the underliers. Those types of things are all indicative of people trying to move blocks of risk, and there's a bit of a consequence to it in terms of liquidity. The Fed will make their own decisions about how they think about things.

我們已經看到了您通常期望的所有事情。ETF 資產淨值與標的資產淨值之間存在一些差異。這些事情都顯示人們試圖轉移風險，而且從流動性的角度來看，這會造成一些後果。聯準會將自行決定如何看待事物。

But if you look at history, what history suggests is that they intervene when they see markets that become fundamentally dysfunctional or dislocated where it's not possible to move risk and the markets really aren't functioning properly. And that's absolutely not what we have seen this week. Markets are working fine. We're just seeing situations where liquidity is reduced; and therefore, people are having to pay up. And I think that's the distinction that I'd make for you.

但如果你回顧歷史，你會發現，當他們看到市場出現根本性功能障礙或混亂，無法轉移風險且市場實際上無法正常運作時，他們就會介入。這絕對不是我們本週所看到的情況。市場運作良好。我們只是看到流動性減少的情況；因此，人們必須付出代價。我想這就是我要向你做出的區分。

That's helpful. And I guess a separate question, maybe not timely given all the macro concerns, but your Global Head of Digital Assets testified in front of Congress with regards to the stablecoin legislation. That's a huge priority for this administration. Just give us a sense of how we should think about what is stablecoin legislation. BNY had relationships with Circle, I think, going back a few years ago. What all of that means in terms of your ability to play in digital assets? Are there meaningful implications on revenue growth, deposits that we should be thinking about?

這很有幫助。我想這是一個單獨的問題，考慮到所有的宏觀擔憂，可能並不及時，但您的全球數位資產主管曾在國會就穩定幣立法作證。這是本屆政府的首要任務。請讓我們了解一下我們應該如何看待穩定幣立法。我認為，BNY 與 Circle 的關係可以追溯到幾年前。就您在數位資產領域的能力而言，這一切意味著什麼？這對營收成長和存款有何重大影響值得我們考慮？

I think the short answer is we don't see it as a near-term big revenue item on the list, but we've always seen digital assets as a long-term play, whether it's the creation of new stuff or new packages of stuff. Look, we're in the business of looking after things in one of our platforms. That's our custody business. $53 trillion, world number one. And so if there's going to be new stuff in the world, we want to be able to look after it.

我認為簡短的回答是，我們並不認為它是名單上近期的大筆收入項目，但我們始終將數位資產視為長期投資，無論是創造新產品還是新產品包。你看，我們的業務就是管理我們其中一個平台上的事務。這就是我們的託管業務。 53兆美元，世界第一。因此，如果世界上出現新事物，我們希望能夠照顧好它。

But then more broadly, the tokenization and leveraging the technology to find better ways of being able to move assets through the system more efficiently, less cost, less infrastructure required to do it, we actually think those will be a net plus, net-net over time for us. And so our strategy has been pretty simple, which is we've been very engaged with all of the participants in the system.

但從更廣泛的角度來看，標記化和利用技術來找到更好的方法，能夠更有效地、更低的成本、更少的基礎設施在系統中轉移資產，我們實際上認為，隨著時間的推移，這些對我們來說將是一個淨收益。所以我們的策略非常簡單，那就是我們與系統中的所有參與者都保持著密切的聯繫。

You mentioned Congress and the regulators, but it's true with the clients as well. We provide a lot of our traditional rails to these new players, and that's been a great way to build relationship. You mentioned one particular client that we do exactly that for. Now I think it's very positive that Congress is looking at this question because stablecoins are -- or some form of digital currency on-chain is necessary in order to be able to make on-chain transactions efficient.

您提到了國會和監管機構，但對於客戶來說也是如此。我們為這些新玩家提供了許多傳統軌道，這是建立關係的好方法。您提到了我們為一位特定客戶提供此類服務。現在我認為國會正在考慮這個問題是非常積極的，因為穩定幣——或者某種形式的鏈上數位貨幣是必要的，以便能夠使鏈上交易高效。

Bitcoin is a more volatile asset, so it doesn't lend itself as well to good DVP behaviors of a settlement system. So we see stablecoins being one way of being able to facilitate that. So being able to do sort of transitions between the fiat currency world and the chain world seems to be a sensible place for us to play. It's great to see that legislation proceeding, but then behind it is also a market structure bill. And that would set really the rules of the road, the terms of engagement for how different participants can participate in digital assets.

比特幣是一種波動性較大的資產，因此它不太適合結算系統的良好 DVP 行為。因此，我們認為穩定幣是實現這一目標的一種方式。因此，能夠在法定貨幣世界和鍊式世界之間進行轉換似乎是我們明智的做法。很高興看到該立法的進展，但它背後還有一項市場結構法案。這將真正制定出道路規則，即不同參與者如何參與數位資產的參與條款。

I think the very helpful thing from this administration has been to sort of create more of this level playing field and say it's a new technology. We don't want anybody to be disadvantaged. We want everybody to be able to participate. And let's do what the US is so good at, which is innovate and define global standards. And so that's where we sit today. I wouldn't have it as a huge revenue item in the 2025 P&L, but that isn't to undermine its promise over time.

我認為本屆政府最有幫助的做法就是創造更公平的競爭環境，並將其視為一項新技術。我們不希望任何人處於不利地位。我們希望每個人都能參與。讓我們做美國擅長的事情，即創新和製定全球標準。這就是我們今天的處境。我不會將其作為 2025 年損益表中的一項巨額收入項目，但這並不會破壞其長期前景。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Smith, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 David Smith。

Hi, good morning. A couple questions on NII. First, it looks like NII from repo and Fed funds increased again this quarter. Do you see this sustaining? Is there an expectation for a meaningful drop-off? Just help us frame that. And then secondly, your deposit beta was really high, around 90% again this quarter. Obviously, it's a very fluid rate backdrop. But based on what you're seeing, when might this start to level off? Since I think last cycle, your beta was around 75% or 80% for the cumulative cycle.

嗨，早安。關於 NII 的幾個問題。首先，本季回購和聯邦基金的NII看起來再次增加。您認為這種情況能持續下去嗎？是否預計會出現有意義的下降？只需幫助我們建立它。其次，您的存款貝塔係數確實很高，本季再次達到 90% 左右。顯然，這是一個非常不穩定的利率背景。但根據您所看到的情況，什麼時候這種情況才會開始趨於平穩？因為我認為上個週期，您的 beta 值在累積週期中約為 75% 或 80%。

So thanks for the question. Look, on the repo side, part of NII higher than expected, and we've invested quite heavily in that over the last couple of years. And we feel it's an important business for us as it relates to clients and delivering products to them. But it's quite small in the context of our overall NII. It's only about 5%, so I think the business held in nicely. It's doing well, the balances are higher, and spreads are a little bit tighter. So there's kind of a couple of puts and takes there. But in the context of our overall NII, it's quite small.

感謝您的提問。你看，在回購方面，部分NII高於預期，而且我們在過去幾年中在這方面投入了相當大的資金。我們認為這對我們來說是一項重要的業務，因為它與客戶和向他們提供產品有關。但與我們的整體國家資訊基礎結構相比，這個數字相當小。僅為 5% 左右，所以我認為業務保持得很好。它表現良好，餘額更高，利差也更小一些。因此，這裡面存在著一些得失。但與我們整體的國家資訊基礎結構相比，這個數字相當小。

In terms of the beta question, look, this is a question I guess that's come up on a lot of calls over the last several quarters in that we deal with a sophisticated client base, and we kind of pass on the rates as we get them. And so our kind of betas have always been quite high like in the low to mid 80s, and that's kind of where we see the book. And so the marginal beta is around 100%. And if rates were to go down, we'd see the betas to perform in line with the way up. So that's kind of roughly how we see it.

就測試版問題而言，你看，我想這個問題在過去幾季的許多電話會議中都出現過，因為我們要與成熟的客戶群打交道，而且我們會在獲得費率後將其傳達給他們。因此，我們的測試版一直都相當高，例如在 80 年代初期到中期，這就是我們對這本書的看法。因此邊際貝塔係數約為 100%。如果利率下降，我們會看到貝塔係數的表現與利率上升一致。這就是我們大致的看法。

Thank you. And then just in terms of how the macro environment is affecting client activity, do you find clients are less willing to move around from one provider to another in a turbulent environment like this, or the custodians with differentiated capabilities become more attractive to a large enough extent that people will still consider moving where they hold funds?

謝謝。那麼就宏觀環境如何影響客戶活動而言，您是否發現在這種動蕩的環境中，客戶不太願意從一家提供商轉移到另一家提供商，或者俱有差異化能力的託管人變得更具吸引力，以至於人們仍然會考慮轉移他們持有資金的地方？

I think it depends on the platform. And this is really where the breadth of our platforms is a real advantage for us, David. Because we have these platforms that are higher frequency in terms of volumes where things like collateral management, things like treasury clearing, things like global clearing, our $1.6 trillion ecosystem in terms of liquidity direct. And so there's absolutely the ability to move around there. But we just have these great platforms, and people gravitate to us at these times given what we have.

我認為這取決於平台。這就是我們的平台廣度帶給我們的真正優勢，大衛。因為我們擁有這些在交易量方面頻率更高的平台，例如抵押品管理、資金清算、全球清算，以及我們 1.6 兆美元的流動性直接生態系統。因此，那裡絕對有能力四處走動。但我們擁有這些出色的平台，人們在這些時候會因為我們所擁有的東西而被我們吸引。

And then there are the longer-burn opportunities where people are reflecting on how to run their businesses in the best possible way. And I don't think at this point it's the environment where you kick off something super big that was going to take a lot of distraction of leadership time. But most of the work and most of the platforms that we provide, they don't really fit into that category.

然後還有一些更長期的機會，人們正在思考如何以最佳方式經營他們的業務。我認為，目前的情況不適合啟動某項超大型任務，因為這會佔用領導階層的大量時間。但我們提供的大多數工作和大多數平台實際上並不屬於這一類別。

And so I don't see a reason why we're not sort of business as usual in terms of the environment today, but we'll have to see how it plays out. If we're going to have up 6%, 7%, 8% in the stock market every day, then obviously that creates a chilling effect almost and an exhaustion effect almost by definition. But I don't think we're at this point where for our businesses the uncertainty really cascades through into client choices today.

因此，我認為就當今的環境而言，我們沒有理由不照常營業，但我們必須看看結果會如何。如果股市每天上漲 6%、7%、8%，那麼顯然這幾乎會產生寒蟬效應，而且幾乎可以肯定會產生疲憊效應。但我不認為我們目前處於這樣的階段：對於我們的企業來說，不確定性實際上會影響到今天的客戶選擇。

The point I would add onto it is at some level, it does create opportunity for us as well as we make our platforms better. And as clients look to optimize for their individual environments, it's going to create opportunities for us to help our clients to run things better for themselves. I would feel quite optimistic our ability to serve clients in a better way is a result of our transformation that's going on. And also a significant part of our revenue is recurring. Once we have clients on our platform, they tend to stick with us. And at times like this, that is a tremendous thing to have.

我想補充的一點是，在某種程度上，它確實為我們創造了機會，同時也使我們的平台變得更好。當客戶尋求優化其個人環境時，這將為我們創造機會，幫助我們的客戶更好地管理自身業務。我非常樂觀地認為，我們正在進行的轉型將使我們有能力以更好的方式為客戶服務。而且我們的收入很大一部分是經常性的。一旦我們的平台有了客戶，他們就會繼續與我們合作。在這樣的時刻，擁有這樣的事是一件了不起的事。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Hey, good morning, folks. Just the platforms question, going back to Robin, I think what you talked about in your earlier remarks, over half of BNY is now on the platform model. And then you talked about the costs, the efficiencies, and you cited some examples. The question would be is now that you've got half of the firm on the model, are you -- are the efficiencies and the cross sells, and if I can throw AI in there as well, are these contributions exceeding your expectations so far? And if that is so, would that either translate into lower expense growth or would you tend to channel those savings and to reinvest them in growth initiatives?

嘿，大家早安。只是關於平台的問題，回到羅賓的問題，我想你在之前的評論中談到了，現在超過一半的 BNY 都採用平台模式。然後您談到了成本、效率，並舉了一些例子。問題是，現在您已經讓一半的公司採用了該模型，效率和交叉銷售是否提高了，如果我可以將人工智慧也加入其中，這些貢獻是否超出了您的預期？如果是這樣，這是否意味著費用成長會降低，或者您傾向於將這些節省下來的資金重新投資於成長計畫？

Well, Brian, I'm just going to take you back to some comments that I made a few quarters ago, which is just to remind of the fact that we've been simultaneously investing in the short, medium, and long term. We did this thing. It's now in the past, but Project Catalyst, which was designed to be able to have this 1,500 ideas that we're going to be able to save us money on a run rate basis.

好吧，布萊恩，我只是想讓你回顧一下我幾個季度前發表的一些評論，這只是為了提醒大家我們一直在同時進行短期、中期和長期投資。我們做了這件事。現在這已經是過去的事情了，但是 Catalyst 專案的設計初衷是能夠擁有這 1,500 個想法，這樣我們就能夠在運行率的基礎上節省資金。

2025 is actually the first year where we have the full benefit of Catalyst in the numbers. So we're still benefiting from some of those short-term actions that we took a little while back. And then simultaneously, we've been investing more, and Dermot talked about this in answer to Mike's question earlier on. Actually, the gross numbers in terms of the savings and the investments, both of them are meaningfully higher than they've been in past years. And sometimes, it's a little hard to see that under the hood.

2025 年實際上是我們在數字上充分享受 Catalyst 效益的第一年。因此，我們仍然受益於不久前採取的一些短期行動。同時，我們也在加大投資，Dermot 之前在回答 Mike 的問題時也談到了這一點。實際上，儲蓄和投資的總量都比過去幾年有顯著提高。有時，我們很難看清引擎蓋下的東西。

But this investment into platforms operating model, it's a means to an end. We think that actually, people working in this model provide some immediate benefits. The agility and the ways of organizing teams create some efficiency and some more sort of pointed ability to get things done quicker with a little bit less bureaucracy and sort of nonsense getting in the way.

但這種對平台營運模式的投資，只是達到目的的手段。我們認為，實際上，按照這種模式工作的人們確實帶來了一些直接的利益。敏捷性和組織團隊的方式創造了一些效率和一些更有針對性的能力，可以更快地完成任務，同時減少一些官僚主義和無意義的阻礙。

But it's really a means to an end because the objective of operating in the platforms has always been we will be able to do more business and we'll be able to do it better and quicker. Risk management benefits, efficiency benefits, it's just got a lot of things that really suit us. And for that, you don't really see those benefits until you've got a platform operating for probably at least 6 to 12 months to start to see that.

但這其實是一種手段，因為在平台上運作的目標一直是我們能夠做更多的生意，而且能夠做得更好、更快。風險管理效益、效率效益，它有很多真正適合我們的地方。對此，您無法真正看到這些好處，直到您的平台運行至少 6 到 12 個月後才能開始看到這一點。

And we in fact had a great example ourselves internally where one of our earliest entrants into the platform's operating model is starting now to rethink and reimagine how the infrastructure and systems underlying their platform operate. How do those processes work across the company? And it took a year for them to be in the model before they've really been able to set out their stall. So that's a long way of saying, I think the benefits of this are very much to come. They're more of a '26 and a '27 story, although there's some benefit in '25 and probably through into '28.

事實上，我們內部就有一個很好的例子，我們最早進入平台營運模式的公司之一現在開始重新思考和重新想像其平台的基礎設施和系統的運作方式。這些流程在整個公司內如何運作？他們花了一年的時間才真正能夠開設自己的攤位。長話短說，我認為這樣做的好處將非常明顯。它們更像是 26 年和 27 年的故事，儘管 25 年和 28 年也有一些好處。

And then we see AI as the longer-term thing to layer onto that. Not too much benefit in '25, but we've clearly started. But that layers in, I would say, '26, '27, '28, '29 through the end of the decade. And so it's this choreography that we've laid out as a leadership team to the different things that we're doing and how they will benefit us at different periods of time. But we got going on all of them early, and that was the key.

然後，我們將人工智慧視為更長期的發展方向。25 年沒有太多好處，但我們顯然已經開始了。但我想說，這種趨勢會持續到 26、27、28、29 年，直到本世紀末。因此，我們作為領導團隊針對我們正在做的不同事情以及它們將如何在不同時期使我們受益制定了這樣的安排。但我們很早就開始著手解決這些問題，這就是關鍵。

From the CFO lens, I'll give you a little bit of a history lesson. If you kind of go 2022, expenses were up 8%. 2023, there were 2.7%. 2024, flat to slightly up due to the revenue growth outperforming expectations. And this year, we're guiding 1% to 2%. And all of the projects that Robin referred to are feeding into those numbers. They're not something distinct and separate.

從財務長的角度來看，我將告訴你一點歷史課。如果你到 2022 年，支出將增加 8%。 2023年，這一比例為2.7%。 2024年，由於營收成長超出預期，持平或略有上升。今年，我們預計將成長 1% 至 2%。羅賓提到的所有項目都為這些數字做出了貢獻。它們並不是某些獨特而獨立的東西。

So all of the things that we're doing gives us a lot of confidence to be able to give you good guidance. And ultimately, the journey never ends. Because we're becoming a much better-run company, the flywheel of initiatives is just going to outpace the efficiency, and that's going to lead to more growth opportunities.

因此，我們所做的一切都讓我們非常有信心為您提供良好的指導。最終，旅程永遠不會結束。因為我們正在成為一家運作更好的公司，所以各項舉措的飛輪速度將超過效率，這將帶來更多的成長機會。

That's great color. And I think you wanted to convert the entire company by the end of the year on the platform model. Is that correct, or is that into '26?

顏色真棒。我認為您希望在今年年底前將整個公司轉變為平台模式。這是正確的嗎，還是說這是 '26 年的？

Yes, so I would think by this time next year when we do this call, all things kind of going according to plan, we would say the firm is fully operating in the new way of working. But I would double down on what Robin said. We can see real, tangible benefits from the people who went first versus the people who are just starting now. And it's a mindset change, which is really people showing up in a different way in the firm, and they're much happier in the new way of working. So culturally, it's very powerful.

是的，所以我認為到明年這個時候，當我們進行這次電話會議時，所有事情都會按計劃進行，我們會說公司已經完全按照新的工作方式運作了。但我會加倍重視羅賓所說的話。我們可以從先行者與剛開始的人身上看到真正的、實際的利益。這是一種思維方式的轉變，實際上人們在公司裡以不同的方式出現，他們對新的工作方式感到更加快樂。所以從文化角度來說，它非常強大。

That's great color. Thank you.

顏色真棒。謝謝。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. I hope you guys are well. So I have a couple of questions on the Pershing business. There was some press coverage noting recent changes to the sharing of cash economics with some of your RIA and IBD clients. I was hoping you could just speak to what informed the pricing changes, the feedback you've gotten from the clients thus far, and how we should think about any potential benefit to NII as you retain more of those spread economics.

大家好，早安，感謝您回答我的問題。我希望你們都好。我對潘興業務有幾個問題。一些新聞報導指出，最近你們與一些 RIA 和 IBD 客戶在現金經濟方面的分享發生了變化。我希望您能談談價格變化的原因、迄今為止您從客戶那裡得到的反饋，以及在您保留更多利差經濟效益的同時，我們應該如何看待 NII 的任何潛在利益。

Look, it's something that we're continuing to do. We've opened up our platform. We want to offer our clients a lot of choice at competitive rates. We've not really made any significant changes. We kind of keep it under review because the backdrop of the environment is so fluid. But in terms of the overall context of the NII and how it feeds into the 5% guide, it's de minimis.

瞧，這是我們正在繼續做的事情。我們已經開放了我們的平台。我們希望以有競爭力的價格為客戶提供多種選擇。我們實際上並沒有做出任何重大改變。我們一直在審查它，因為環境背景非常不穩定。但就國家資訊基礎結構的整體背景以及它如何融入 5% 指南而言，這只是微不足道的。

That's helpful context. Dermot. And for my follow up, just on the NNA outlook in Pershing, the flow rate, it was a touch softer versus some of the recent mid-single-digit or better NNA flows that you've been seeing in recent quarters. I recognize there's a lot of volatility and uncertainty in the current backdrop, but I was hoping you could just speak to what drove the moderation in flows, whether you expect that to continue amid the recent volatility. And if you could also clarify the timing and impact of the pending Atria departure, just to make sure we have all the moving pieces accounted for.

這是很有幫助的背景資訊。德莫特。就我的後續情況而言，僅就 Pershing 的 NNA 前景而言，流量與最近幾季看到的一些中等個位數或更好的 NNA 流量相比略微疲軟。我認識到當前的背景下存在許多波動性和不確定性，但我希望您能談談導致資金流入放緩的原因，以及您是否預計在最近的波動中會持續下去。如果您能澄清一下 Atria 即將離職的時間和影響，以確保我們已將所有變動因素都考慮在內。

So as it relates to the Pershing, so on the positive side, a lot of volume on the platform. Robin talked to different platforms and the uptick in volume over the last couple of weeks. So we see a lot of volume in terms of transaction activity flowing through the Pershing pipes, which is good for us. As it relates to NNA growth and opportunity, it's a choppy environment. I would put it down to timing.

因此，就 Pershing 而言，從積極的一面來看，該平台的交易量很大。羅賓與不同的平台談論了過去幾週交易量的上升。因此，我們看到透過潘興管道的交易活動量很大，這對我們有利。就 NNA 的成長和機會而言，這是一個不穩定的環境。我認為這是時機問題。

We had some decent-sized mandates that could have signed in in Q1, slipped to Q2, and that's like just more about the timing of when stuff comes on. So from quarter to quarter, I expect we'll see a little bit more choppiness of that. But on the more positive side, I would say we continue to see kind of strong client uptake in the pipeline for Wove.

我們有一些相當大的授權，本來可以在第一季度簽署，但卻推遲到第二季度，這只是事情發生的時間問題。因此，我預計我們會看到每個季度的情況稍微波動。但從更積極的一面來看，我想說我們繼續看到 Wove 的客戶接受度強勁成長。

We gave a guide in January, which was for 2025, roughly $60 million to $70 million. We still feel very good about that guide. We've now got 52 clients on the platform. We signed 22 contracts in Q1. And so now we're kind of building up ahead of steam in terms of client migrations onto the platform. And so the client's excitement about that product continues to kind of give us confidence about saying mid-single digits through the cycle as it relates to NNA.

我們在一月份給了一個指導價，針對 2025 年，大約是 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元。我們仍然對該指南感到非常滿意。我們平台上現在有 52 個客戶。我們在第一季簽署了 22 份合約。因此，現在我們在客戶遷移到平台方面已經處於領先地位。因此，客戶對該產品的興奮繼續讓我們有信心在整個週期中實現與 NNA 相關的中等個位數成長。

That's great. And the Atria impact?

那太棒了。對 Atria 有何影響？

We don't necessarily disclose individual transactions, but coming to a store near you this -- either next quarter or the quarter after.

我們不一定會透露個別交易，但會在下個季度或下個季度來到您附近的商店。

Understood. Well, thanks so much for taking my questions.

明白了。好吧，非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Morning, Betsy.

早安，貝琪。

A couple of questions. One, just on the Treasury Direct Express program that's moving over to your platform, I just want to confirm that already started and wanted to get a sense as to anything you can share on how we should expect that's going to roll through and impact, if at all, visible P&L?

有幾個問題。首先，關於正在轉移到你們平台的 Treasury Direct Express 計劃，我只想確認該計劃是否已經開始，並想了解一下您可以分享什麼信息，即我們應該預期該計劃將如何實施，以及對可見的損益表有何影響（如果有的話）？

So I don't think that, Betty, the P&L won't be visible in terms of size or lumpiness. We're very excited to have won the business. It was really -- to be honest with you, that was a real strength of the platform operating model in terms of our ability to bring the firm together to win that mandate.

因此，貝蒂，我認為，損益表在規模或塊度方面是可見的。我們非常高興贏得這項業務。老實說，就我們團結公司贏得這項授權的能力而言，這確實是平台營運模式的真正優勢。

So that was a real kind of nice proof point for us that we were on the right track as it relates to the Treasury service model. We expected to ramp up in the latter part of this year. But in terms of moving the needle for the firm's revenues, it's just another happy client wanting to do business with BNY. And it's going to come into the run rate latter part of this year, so it will be in the full-year numbers next year.

所以這對我們來說是一個非常好的證明，證明我們在財務服務模式上走在了正確的軌道上。我們預計今年下半年產量將會增加。但從推動公司營收的角度來看，這只是另一個願意與紐約銀行做生意的滿意客戶而已。它將在今年下半年進入運行率，因此它將出現在明年的全年數據中。

Okay, and then as I'm looking at the deposit and the SKU, NIB, IB, I thought in the past NIB you were thinking that might move down towards $44 billion, and is that the case still or not? And if that changed, why?

好的，然後當我查看存款和 SKU、NIB、IB 時，我認為在過去，您認為 NIB 可能會下降到 440 億美元，現在情況仍然如此嗎？如果發生了變化，原因是什麼？

So we're a little bit higher than that. And so our current -- we kind of believe that it's going to roughly hang into the zip code that it's currently in, may moderate a little bit from here due to some cash sorting. But we don't expect any meaningful change on it. And that kind of feeds the 5% guide.

所以我們比那稍微高一點。因此，我們目前認為，它會大致停留在目前的郵遞區號範圍內，由於一些現金分類，它可能會從這裡稍微緩和一些。但我們並不期望它會發生任何有意義的改變。這也符合 5% 的指導原則。

Okay. And then you mentioned if the Fed cuts 50 bps tomorrow, there's no NII impact. What should we be keeping an eye out for that would drive an NII impact? Is it flattening of the curve, sharp flattening, anything, or you're good in any situation?

好的。然後您提到，如果聯準會明天降息 50 個基點，不會對 NII 產生影響。我們應該關注哪些因素會對 NII 產生影響？是曲線趨於平緩、急劇趨於平緩，還是其他什麼情況，或在任何情況下都表現良好？

I think under a wide range of situations for '25, on the rate curve, we're good. Obviously, if something happens materially with levels of balances and mix shifts, that would impact it. But we've done a lot of analysis, and so we feel reasonably good under a wide range of scenarios. The NII is okay for sure.

我認為，在 25 年的各種情況下，從利率曲線來看，我們的表現都很好。顯然，如果平衡水平和混合轉變發生重大變化，就會對其產生影響。但我們已經做了大量的分析，因此在各種情況下我們都感覺相當良好。NII 肯定沒問題。

And Treasury Express obviously is in your guide.

而 Treasury Express 顯然在您的指南中。

And that was a deliberate strategy, Betsy, because we really wanted to take the risk of 2025 sort of out of things. And that was work that the team did last year because NII is obviously a very valuable contribution to our firm, and we appreciate it as part of our overall operating leverage. But as Dermot said earlier on, positive operating leverage is the North Star and we have other levers around, of course, fees.

貝琪，這是一個深思熟慮的策略，因為我們確實想避免 2025 年的風險。這就是團隊去年所做的工作，因為 NII 顯然對我們公司做出了非常寶貴的貢獻，我們將其視為整體營運槓桿的一部分。但正如德莫特之前所說，積極的經營槓桿是北極星，當然我們還有其他槓桿，那就是費用。

Now market is a variable, but it's -- remember, our fees aren't only about market because they're also about volumes, activity levels. Wove is a software sale as well. And then we have the all-important lever of expenses, which is, as Dermot and I both said, we've been spending a considerable amount of money on investments.

現在市場是一個變量，但是——請記住，我們的費用不僅與市場有關，因為它們還與交易量、活動水平有關。Wove 也是一家軟體銷售公司。然後我們有最重要的費用槓桿，正如德莫特和我所說的那樣，我們在投資上花費了大量資金。

We see nothing in the environment today to suggest that we should stop that. But given the fact that the total gross of savings and investments is bigger and is part of the 1% to 2% guide that Dermot gave you, it follows from that that we have choices underneath that if we needed them. So positive operating leverage is the anchor. NII is, sure, great, but it's all about the other stuff.

我們今天所看到的環境並沒有任何跡象表明我們應該停止這種行為。但考慮到儲蓄和投資總額較大，並且屬於 Dermot 給您的 1% 到 2% 指南的一部分，因此，如果需要的話，我們可以在下面做出選擇。因此，正的經營槓桿是關鍵。NII 確實很棒，但它還涉及其他方面。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy），加拿大皇家銀行。

Good afternoon. Dermot, can you share with us your thoughts about -- you talked about the immunization that you guys did. And Robin, you just touched on it last year following Jackson Hole for this year's NII. Would you consider doing something like that for 2026 as the year progresses, or was that kind of a one-and-done kind of strategy?

午安.德莫特，您能與我們分享您的想法嗎—您談到了您們所做的免疫接種。羅賓，去年在傑克遜霍爾舉辦的 NII 會議之後，您就談到了這一點。隨著時間的推移，您會考慮在 2026 年做類似的事情嗎，還是這是一次性的策略？

No, absolutely, very much focused on '26. Active work. And so yes, we're always looking at the markets. We're always looking how to optimize our balance sheet. The partnership between, we call it the tripod internally, is just really, really strong. I think we'll feel good about the '26 outlook when we come to talk about it.

不，絕對的，非常關注 26 年。積極工作。是的，我們一直在關注市場。我們一直在尋找如何優化我們的資產負債表。我們內部稱為三腳架的合作關係非常非常牢固。我認為，當我們談論 26 年的前景時，我們會感到很滿意。

Very good. I don't think you guys touched on this. I apologize if you did, if I missed it. There's a lot of talk about regulatory change on the horizon, specifically when it comes to the supplementary leverage ratio, which I think you guys in the past have pointed out to all of us that's your binding capital constraint. Assuming there is relief where they exclude those Treasury securities and possibly mortgage-backed securities from the calculation of the SLR, can you share with us how that would impact the way you manage your balance sheet and the outlook for revenue, should that change?

非常好。我認為你們沒有談及這一點。如果您確實錯過了，或者我錯過了，我深感抱歉。關於即將出台的監管改革有很多討論，特別是關於補充槓桿率，我想你們過去已經向我們所有人指出，這是你們的約束性資本約束。假設他們將那些國庫證券和可能的抵押貸款支持證券排除在 SLR 計算之外，您能否與我們分享這將如何影響您管理資產負債表的方式和收入前景，如果情況發生變化？

Sure. Let me split the question into the two pieces. So first, the impact on us, and it can get a little weedy here because there are actually three different leverage ratios. There's an ESLR, which is the Fed's gift to take away. There is an SLR, which is a three-agency rule across the FDIC, the OCC, and the Fed. And then there's a Tier 1 leverage ratio, which there's some legal debate about whether or not the Fed has the ability to make changes to that, but it's really in Dodd-Frank. And so that's the one that applies to all banks.

當然。讓我把這個問題分成兩個部分。首先，對我們的影響可能會有點複雜，因為實際上有三種不同的槓桿率。有一個 ESLR，這是聯準會要帶走的禮物。有一個 SLR，它是跨 FDIC、OCC 和美聯儲的三方機構規則。然後還有一級槓桿率，關於聯準會是否有能力改變這一比率存在一些法律爭論，但這確實在《多德-弗蘭克法案》中有所規定。這適用於所有銀行。

We have a little bit of a different treatment on us just given the nature of the businesses that we're in, but we are bound by Tier 1 leverage ratio and we've said that before. And so SLR can have some change but maybe not quite as much on us. But now let me take the other part of the question and just sort of respond to what's going on in the space.

考慮到我們所從事的業務性質，我們的待遇會有些不同，但我們受一級槓桿率的約束，我們之前已經說過了。因此，SLR 可能會帶來一些改變，但對我們影響可能不大。但現在讓我來談談問題的另一部分，並對目前發生的事情做出一些回應。

We've had a point of view for a long time that we actually think that leverage ratio was ill advised, and it's not really about banks. It kind of came about to some extent out of the financial crisis is almost like in a moment of anger towards banks that existed at that point. But the problem is the casualty of the situation is markets because we want banks to be able to flex their size, particularly in cash on their balance sheet and in treasuries on their balance sheet.

我們長期以來一直認為槓桿率是不明智的，而且這實際上與銀行無關。從某種程度上來說，這是金融危機的產物，幾乎就像是對當時存在的銀行的憤怒。但問題是，這種情況的受害者是市場，因為我們希望銀行能夠靈活調整其規模，特別是資產負債表上的現金和國債。

Remember, the SLR penalizes a one-day cash management bill in terms of the balance sheet. And so it does not help markets when we take out one of the accordion flexes to be able to absorb Treasury supply. And we've probably been seeing that as a contributor to treasury spreads being wider over the course of the past week.

請記住，SLR 會根據資產負債表對一日現金管理帳單進行處罰。因此，當我們取消其中一項措施來吸收國債供應時，這對市場沒有任何幫助。我們可能已經看到這是過去一周國債利差擴大的一個因素。

I don't see this administration or the incoming leaders into the agencies to want to continue to be in this gold-plating business, which is what some of these rules have been in the US. I see them in the business of wanting to unleash the power of US capital markets and make sure that capital markets are working for the US economy and that banks are fully able to operate to support capital markets and make them run as efficiently as possible.

我不認為本屆政府或新任機構領導人會想繼續從事這種鍍金業務，而美國的一些規則就是如此。我看到他們希望釋放美國資本市場的力量，確保資本市場為美國經濟服務，並確保銀行能夠充分運作以支持資本市場並使其盡可能高效地運作。

Robin, thank you. Very insightful.

羅賓，謝謝你。非常有見地。

Happy to do it.

很開心能做到。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆·米切爾，Seaport Global Securities。

Hey, good afternoon. I think maybe a broader question on organic growth. I think, Robin, you mentioned earlier that you might have had record new business wins. So is there a way to kind of frame that in terms of percentage terms, year-over-year terms, just trying to think through the progress towards getting that organic growth rate up and where you stand today?

嘿，下午好。我認為這可能是關於有機增長的一個更廣泛的問題。羅賓，我想你之前提到過，你可能已經取得了創紀錄的新業務勝利。那麼，有沒有辦法用百分比、同比來表示這一點，只是想思考一下實現有機成長率的進展以及您目前的狀況？

Yes, well we tried to put one stat in my prepared remarks, but we've got a few that sort of relate to this in terms of the increase. I like as one good indicator, and we talked about this in the last earnings call, the number of clients buying from three or more lines of business. Our platforms, of which, as you know, we have many, increased by 40% over the past two years. And so that's actually the biggest driver, which is having those clients who are doing two or three things with us doing an extra thing.

是的，我們試圖在我準備好的發言中提出一個統計數據，但就成長而言，我們有幾個與此相關的統計數據。我喜歡一個很好的指標，我們在上次收益電話會議上討論過這個問題，即從三個或更多業務線購買產品的客戶數量。如你所知，我們的平台有很多，過去兩年成長了 40％。所以這其實是最大的驅動力，讓那些與我們一起做兩三件事的客戶做一件額外的事情。

And in fact, the clients who do more with us -- and again, we talked about this back in January. The clients who do more with us tend to understand us better and tend to do even more things with us because they appreciate the breadth of the relationship, they appreciate how our platforms can link together, and we can just be a more efficient ecosystem for them.

事實上，與我們合作更多的客戶—我們在一月就討論過這個問題。與我們合作更多的客戶往往會更了解我們，並且傾向於與我們做更多的事情，因為他們欣賞我們之間關係的廣度，他們欣賞我們的平台如何相互聯繫，我們可以為他們提供更有效率的生態系統。

I'll give you one example. If you do clearing with BNY and you do collateral with BNY, then in Treasuries as an example, the ability for us to link up the ecosystem around our liquidity direct platform; our collateral management platform, world number one; our US Treasury platform, world number one; the world number one in global custody, we can link those things up. And those become book entry transfers on our custody ledger. That's just a more efficient way to operate, and we see that linkage.

我給你舉一個例子。如果您與 BNY 進行清算並與 BNY 進行抵押，那麼以國債為例，我們就有能力連接我們流動性直接平台周圍的生態系統；我們的抵押品管理平台，世界第一；我們的美國財政部平台，世界第一；作為全球拘留領域的世界第一，我們可以將這些事情聯繫起來。這些都成為我們託管分類帳上的簿記轉移。這只是一種更有效的運作方式，我們看到了這種連結。

As we get better operating as one firm, deploying our commercial model, having clients understand how they can see all of those different platforms, there are actually more and more synergy benefits for them. So this is the -- we've said this all along, this is the single biggest avenue of growth for us is to have more of our clients do more of what we do. And then we add to that the innovation. We add to that finding new clients. We add to that the megatrends that we talked about last time. But we are quite optimistic about the amount of runway we have under this heading.

隨著我們作為一家公司更好地運營，部署我們的商業模式，讓客戶了解如何看待所有這些不同的平台，他們實際上會獲得越來越多的協同效益。所以這就是——我們一直在說，這是我們最大的成長途徑，就是讓更多的客戶做更多我們所做的事情。然後我們再添加創新。我們也致力於尋找新客戶。我們也加入了上次討論的大趨勢。但我們對於這個目標下我們擁有的跑道數量相當樂觀。

And look, if you go back and look at a script from two years ago versus a script today in terms of how we talk to the market, we're talking about more things with you, more products, Wove, Archer, our growth in ETFs, quite strong, which we haven't talked about today, and also building out our infrastructure and alternatives. And Robin mentioned it in his prepared remarks, like the appointment of Carolyn Weinberg is a really important strategic step for us in terms of innovating around new products.

看看吧，如果你回頭看看兩年前的腳本與今天的腳本，看看我們如何與市場對話，我們會和你談論更多的事情，更多的產品，Wove、Archer，我們的 ETF 增長相當強勁，這是我們今天沒有談論的，同時我們還在構建我們的基礎設施和替代方案。羅賓在他的準備好的演講中提到，任命卡羅琳·溫伯格對於我們在新產品創新方面來說是非常重要的策略一步。

Yes, absolutely. So I guess versus two years ago, is it fair to assume you seem even more confident in driving this improvement in still kind of early days? Is that a fair way to think about it?

是的，絕對是。因此，我想與兩年前相比，是否可以公平地假設您在早期階段似乎更有信心推動這項改進？這是一種公平的思考方式嗎？

I would say that we've matured in this. We originally -- if you were to analyze our language over time, the theme is very much there, but our conviction around it has grown; and importantly, we've moved it along the maturity curve. Originally, it was connecting the dots. Then it was One BNY mentality. Now it's our commercial model. This is our first full-year operating in our new commercial model under the leadership of our chief commercial officer. So we've been maturing the concept, but our vision of this is unchanged, but our conviction in it and the maturity, operationalization, repeatability embedding in this company is growing.

我想說我們在這方面已經成熟了。我們最初——如果你分析我們長期以來的語言，你會發現這個主題一直存在，但我們對它的信念卻越來越堅定；重要的是，我們已經使其沿著成熟曲線前進。最初，它是將點連接起來。然後就是One BNY心態。現在這是我們的商業模式。這是我們在首席商務官的領導下以新的商業模式運營的第一個全年年度。因此，我們一直在完善這個概念，但我們對此的願景沒有改變，但我們對它的信念以及這家公司的成熟度、操作性、可重複性正在增長。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的麥克梅奧 (Mike Mayo)。

I was just looking for one wrap-up number, just even if it's just what you're conceptually thinking, because you're talking about all these revenue growth initiatives, products, platforms, processes, and people. And you talk about clients involving more than three lines of business, but then you also say there's some caveats because markets will do what markets will do. So I'm just trying -- you can help us out with our earnings models, but not for the next quarter, for the next three to five years. The main question is, what should be the core organic growth rate ahead, and what has it been in the past? Thanks.

我只是在尋找一個總結數字，即使它只是你在概念上思考的，因為你正在談論所有這些收入成長計劃、產品、平台、流程和人員。您談到了涉及三條以上業務線的客戶，但您也說有一些警告，因為市場會按照市場的方式行事。所以我只是在嘗試——你可以幫助我們制定獲利模式，但不是針對下個季度，而是針對未來三到五年。主要的問題是，未來的核心有機成長率應該是多少，過去又是多少？謝謝。

So I think that's a conversation for offline, I would say, Mike, when you visit. But I kind of -- when I come in every day, I just -- I care about positive operating leverage consistently through the cycle, which is made up of fees, NII, and how we manage the firm as it relates to expenses. As it relates to fees, we make -- fees are of a couple of different components: balances, volume, and other.

所以我認為這是線下對話，我想說，麥克，當你訪問時。但我每天上班的時候，我只是關心整個週期中持續的正向經營槓桿，它由費用、NII 以及我們如何管理與費用相關的公司組成。至於費用，我們制定的費用由幾個不同的部分組成：餘額、數量和其他。

And so I feel a lot more confident today than I did two years ago in our ability to drive innovation, drive execution, and to do more with our existing client set and also add new clients to the firm. And that's just a journey we're going to be on, and we're going to execute to a very high standard. And so we kind of feel very good about our ability to do positive operating leverage through the cycle in good times and bad.

因此，與兩年前相比，我現在對我們推動創新、推動執行、為現有客戶群做更多事情以及為公司吸引新客戶的能力更有信心。這只是我們要踏上的一段旅程，我們將以非常高的標準去執行。因此，我們對自己在順境和逆境中實現積極經營槓桿的能力感到非常滿意。

And Mike, I'll add to that just by saying that, look, if you step back -- and I'm sorry, this is a little bit -- I'll give you the one number reminder, and then I'll make a bit more of a philosophical comment. So look, two-thirds of our 6% fee growth in 2024 was market and currency, and a third was organic. And that's good. And that was a step up versus the prior year. But obviously, we're determined to see that grind higher.

麥克，我還要補充一點，你看，如果你退一步——對不起，這只是一點點——我會給你一個數字提醒，然後我會做出一些更具哲學性的評論。所以，我們 2024 年 6% 的費用成長有三分之二來自市場和貨幣，三分之一來自有機成長。這很好。與前一年相比，這是一個進步。但顯然，我們決心看到這個目標不斷提高。

And so if you take that as our aspiration, then the question is, do we actually have the right inputs? Are we doing the right things that actually make that legitimate and plausible? So number one, are we actually getting around operationally more with our clients? Are we actually covering them better? Are we actually driving outcomes from them? That's important.

因此，如果您認為這是我們的願望，那麼問題是，我們是否真的有正確的投入？我們所做的事情是否正確，是否真正使其合法、合理？那麼，第一點，我們實際上是否在營運上與客戶進行了更多的合作？我們實際上是否更好地覆蓋了它們？我們真的從中獲得成果了嗎？這很重要。

Where's our trust and reputation? Do people worry about the firm? No, they're very confident. It's this point about platforms built on a very solid foundation, making our balance sheet high quality, de-risked, excess capital, high amounts of liquidity. That gives them confidence to be able to lean in. And all indications are that that is what happens when they have that reaction.

我們的信任和聲譽在哪裡？人們擔心這家公司嗎？不，他們非常自信。正是這一點，讓我們的平台建立在非常堅實的基礎上，使我們的資產負債表品質高、風險低、資本過剩、流動性強。這給了他們信心，使他們能夠繼續前進。所有跡像都表明，當他們有這種反應時，就會發生這種情況。

And then, critically, do we actually have the right products? And so this is where the breadth of the firm really matters. We're not a two-trick or three-trick pony. We're a dozen-trick pony. We can do everything from investments and wealth to retail wealth, to collateral management, to clearing, to payments, to liquidity ecosystems, et cetera, et cetera. So we have this breadth.

然後，至關重要的是，我們真的有合適的產品嗎？所以這才是公司的廣度真正重要的地方。我們不是只會兩招或三招的小馬。我們是一匹有十二個技巧的小馬。我們可以做一切事情，從投資和財富到零售財富、抵押品管理、清算、支付、流動性生態系統等等。所以我們有這個廣度。

And then the question is, can you actually operationalize the joining of these things together? And then do you have innovation? And so we think we're actually attacking the problem through all of those dimensions. And if we do that, we do it consistently and deliberately and relentlessly. Then we think we will win. And that's what we're doing.

那麼問題是，你真的能夠將這些東西結合在一起嗎？那你有創新嗎？因此我們認為我們實際上是從所有這些維度來解決這個問題。如果我們這樣做，我們就會始終如一、刻意而堅持不懈地去做。那我們認為我們會贏。這正是我們正在做的事情。

Well, that was a comprehensive answer. Thank you very much.

嗯，這是一個全面的答案。非常感謝。

Thank you, Mike.

謝謝你，麥克。

And with that, that does conclude our question-and-answer session for today. I would now like to hand the call back over to Robin with any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給羅賓，讓他做任何補充或結束語。

Thank you, Operator. And thanks, everyone, for your interest in BNY. Please reach out to Marius and the IR team if you have any follow-up questions. Be well and good luck out there.

謝謝您，接線生。感謝大家對 BNY 的關注。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡 Marius 和 IR 團隊。祝你一切安好，一切順利。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference and webcast. A replay of this conference call and webcast will be available on the BNY Investor Relations website at 3:00 PM Eastern Standard Time today. Have a great day.

謝謝。今天的會議和網路直播到此結束。本次電話會議和網路直播的重播將於今天美國東部標準時間下午 3:00 在紐約銀行投資者關係網站上提供。祝你有美好的一天。