BowFlex Inc (BFX) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Nautilus, Inc.

您好，歡迎來到 Nautilus, Inc.。

Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Results Conference Call.

2020 年第三季度盈利結果電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. John Mills of ICR.

現在我很高興介紹你們的東道主，ICR 的約翰·米爾斯先生。

Please go ahead, Mr. Mills.

請繼續，米爾斯先生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Welcome to Nautilus' Third Quarter 2020 Conference Call.

歡迎參加 Nautilus 2020 年第三季度電話會議。

Participants today from Nautilus are Jim Barr, Chief Executive Officer; Aina Konold, Chief Financial Officer; Becky Alseth, Chief Marketing Officer; Chris Quatrochi, Senior Vice President of Product Development; and Bill McMahon, Special Assistant to the CEO.

今天來自 Nautilus 的與會者包括首席執行官吉姆·巴爾 (Jim Barr)；艾娜·科諾德，首席財務官； Becky Alseth，首席營銷官； Chris Quatrochi，產品開發高級副總裁；和首席執行官特別助理比爾·麥克馬洪(Bill McMahon)。

Please note, this call is being webcast and will be available for replay for the next 14 days.

請注意，本次電話會議正在網絡直播，並將在接下來的 14 天內重播。

We will be happy to take your questions at the conclusion of our prepared remarks.

在我們準備好的發言結束後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Our earnings release was issued today at 1:05 p.m.

我們的財報於今天下午 1:05 發布。

Pacific Time and may be downloaded from our website at nautilusinc.com on the Investor Relations page.

太平洋時間，可從我們的網站 nautilusinc.com 的投資者關係頁面下載。

The earnings release includes a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures mentioned in today's call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

收益發布包括今天電話會議中提到的非公認會計原則財務指標與最直接可比的公認會計原則指標的調節。

For today's call, we have a presentation accompanying the call with management will refer to during their prepared remarks, and on Slide 2 is our full safe harbor statement, which we ask everyone to read.

對於今天的電話會議，我們有一個伴隨電話會議的演示文稿，管理層將在他們準備好的發言中參考，幻燈片 2 上是我們完整的安全港聲明，我們要求每個人都閱讀。

You can access the presentation by going to nautilusinc.com, click on the Investor tab and then click on the Events & Webcast to access the presentation.

您可以訪問 nautilusinc.com，單擊“投資者”選項卡，然後單擊“活動和網絡廣播”來訪問演示文稿。

I'd like to remind everyone that during this conference call, management will make certain forward-looking statements.

我想提醒大家，在這次電話會議中，管理層將做出某些前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are based on the current beliefs of management and information currently available to us.

這些前瞻性陳述基於管理層當前的信念和我們目前掌握的信息。

Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore, one should not place undue reliance upon them.

此類前瞻性陳述並不能保證未來業績，因此，不應過度依賴它們。

Our actual results will be affected by known and unknown risks, trends, uncertainties and factors that are beyond our control and ability to predict.

我們的實際結果將受到已知和未知的風險、趨勢、不確定性以及超出我們控制和預測能力的因素的影響。

For additional information concerning these factors, please refer to the safe harbor statement and to our SEC filings, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

有關這些因素的更多信息，請參閱安全港聲明和我們的 SEC 文件，這些文件可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

And now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Nautilus' CEO, Mr. Jim Barr.

現在我很高興將電話轉給 Nautilus 首席執行官 Jim Barr 先生。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call.

大家下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

The pandemic has been a challenging time for the world.

大流行對世界來說是一個充滿挑戰的時期。

We awoke today to positive news of progress on a vaccine and are uplifted by it.

今天我們醒來時聽到了疫苗取得進展的積極消息，並為此感到振奮。

While we are sensitive to the devastating impacts that it's had, the resulting trend towards home fitness has continued to boost demand for our products and brands.

雖然我們對其所造成的破壞性影響很敏感，但由此產生的家庭健身趨勢繼續增加了對我們產品和品牌的需求。

I'm extremely proud of our amazing team for their resiliency and endurance as they've successfully navigated the new challenges in our business to deliver for our customers.

我為我們出色的團隊感到非常自豪，他們的彈性和耐力成功地應對了我們業務中的新挑戰，為我們的客戶提供服務。

Today, I'm pleased to discuss our phenomenal third quarter financial results.

今天，我很高興討論我們驚人的第三季度財務業績。

I will also highlight key elements of our very strong execution, our key accomplishments and challenges and how we're planning our business in such uncertain times.

我還將重點介紹我們強大執行力的關鍵要素、我們的主要成就和挑戰，以及我們如何在如此不確定的時期規劃我們的業務。

I'll end with a report on the progress of our long-term strategic planning, which we will call our North Star strategy.

最後，我將報告我們的長期戰略規劃（我們將其稱為北極星戰略）的進展情況。

For the quarter, our revenue was up an incredible 152% compared to last year, driven by broad growth across brands, channels and products.

在品牌、渠道和產品廣泛增長的推動下，本季度我們的收入與去年相比令人難以置信地增長了 152%。

Our Direct segment had its best third quarter ever, the early quadrupling of sales versus the year-ago quarter.

我們的直接業務部門迎來了有史以來最好的第三季度，銷售額較去年同期翻了兩番。

Not to be outdone, our Retail segment had its best sales quarter in its history, up 108% year-over-year.

我們的零售部門也不甘示弱，迎來了歷史上最好的銷售季度，同比增長 108%。

Total company gross profit was up 256%, with margins expanding to 44% and adjusted EBITDA improving by $43 million from a loss of $6 million in the prior year.

公司總毛利潤增長 256%，利潤率擴大至 44%，調整後 EBITDA 比上一年虧損 600 萬美元增加了 4300 萬美元。

Strong customer response to our IC Bikes, the Schwinn IC4 and the Bowflex C6, our Bowflex home gyms and our best-selling SelectTech weights and benches fueled our strong performance.

客戶對我們的 IC 自行車、Schwinn IC4 和 Bowflex C6、我們的 Bowflex 家庭健身房以及我們最暢銷的 SelectTech 舉重和長凳的強烈反應推動了我們的強勁表現。

These results were achieved despite being supply-constrained throughout the quarter.

儘管整個季度供應受到限制，但仍取得了這些成果。

This quarter was the third consecutive quarter of positive comps and the fourth straight quarter of positive cash flow from operations, increasing our flexibility to invest in our long-term transformation.

本季度是連續第三個季度實現正盈利，也是連續第四個季度實現正運營現金流，這提高了我們投資長期轉型的靈活性。

As the pandemic hit the world earlier this year, we showcased our ability to be agile and nimble.

今年早些時候，隨著疫情席捲全球，我們展示了我們敏捷的能力。

In the third quarter, it became increasingly clear that what was at first a sprint had turned into a 10K and now in its eighth month, a marathon.

在第三季度，越來越明顯的是，最初的短跑變成了 10K，現在進入第八個月，變成了馬拉松。

This resulted in a now sustained effort as we adjust to our new normal.

隨著我們適應新常態，這導致了我們現在持續的努力。

Our people have been remarkable in their passion to serve customers in their time of need and are the real reason why we've been able to capture so much of the market opportunity, delivering our most profitable quarter in Nautilus history and putting us on track for one of the best annual performances Nautilus has ever had.

我們的員工非常熱衷於在客戶有需要時為他們提供服務，這也是我們能夠抓住如此多的市場機會、實現 Nautilus 歷史上利潤最高的季度並讓我們走上正軌的真正原因。這是鸚鵡螺有史以來最好的年度表演之一。

The operational improvements we began implementing late last year, combined by the execution by our team, were the keys to fully capitalize and capture such a large portion of the market this year.

我們去年年底開始實施的運營改進，再加上我們團隊的執行，是今年充分利用並佔領如此大一部分市場的關鍵。

Let me give you some examples of our operational achievements in the quarter.

讓我舉一些我們本季度運營成就的例子。

We further increased production and supply chain capacity.

我們進一步提高生產和供應鏈能力。

We have increased production across our portfolio for bikes by as much as 5x and for strength products by 2 to 3x.

我們將自行車產品組合的產量提高了 5 倍，將力量產品的產量提高了 2 至 3 倍。

We added a second supplier in late September for our incredibly popular SelectTech dumbbells and are working to further increase capacity for kettle bells and our newly launched barbells.

我們於 9 月底為我們非常受歡迎的 SelectTech 啞鈴增加了第二家供應商，並正在努力進一步提高壺鈴和我們新推出的槓鈴的產能。

These are fantastic space-saving products and are amazing values.

這些都是出色的節省空間的產品，並且具有驚人的價值。

We successfully launched the Bowflex VeloCore, the industry's first unstationary dual-mode bike that combines leaning technology with digital connectivity.

我們成功推出了 Bowflex VeloCore，這是業界首款將傾斜技術與數字連接相結合的非固定式雙模式自行車。

VeloCore is a fantastic example of innovation, combining a highly differentiated product with a more realistic ride that works more of your body, including your core and your arms.

VeloCore 是創新的絕佳範例，它將高度差異化的產品與更真實的騎行體驗相結合，可以更多地鍛煉您的身體，包括您的核心和手臂。

Combining physical products with digital content and connectivity, we believe VeloCore produces a more realistic and immersive experience than any other bike out there.

我們相信，VeloCore 將實體產品與數字內容和連接相結合，能夠產生比任何其他自行車更真實、更身臨其境的體驗。

We quickly sold out of inventory and have been expediting production of more bikes.

我們很快就賣光了庫存，並一直在加快生產更多自行車。

We are now selling them again and are working hard to further reduce product lead times.

我們現在再次銷售它們，並努力進一步縮短產品交貨時間。

This quarter is the first time that advertising spend was higher than last year as we invested in launch marketing for VeloCore.

由於我們投資了 VeloCore 的啟動營銷，本季度的廣告支出首次高於去年。

Our advertising is not only driving sales.

我們的廣告不僅能推動銷售。

These new ads serve to move our well-known Bowflex brand to an even better place as a tech-forward provider of innovative equipment and immersive connected fitness experiences.

這些新廣告旨在將我們著名的 Bowflex 品牌提升為創新設備和沈浸式互聯健身體驗的技術領先提供商。

Speaking of connected fitness experiences, in tandem with the VeloCore introduction, we launched JRNY 2.0, revving our individualized AI-driven custom workouts that automatically adapt to your progress and simulate one-on-one personal training.

說到互聯健身體驗，在推出 VeloCore 的同時，我們推出了 JRNY 2.0，加快了由人工智能驅動的個性化定制鍛煉，可自動適應您的進度並模擬一對一的個人訓練。

JRNY 2.0 also features a new user experience and more on-demand trainer-led videos.

JRNY 2.0 還具有全新的用戶體驗和更多由培訓師指導的點播視頻。

To further accelerate our efforts to differentiate our digital experiences and scale our JRNY membership platform, we established a new JRNY business unit and hired an accomplished software leader as Chief Digital Officer to spearhead our efforts and assist with our overall long-term digital transformation.

為了進一步加快我們差異化數字體驗和擴展JRNY 會員平台的步伐，我們成立了新的JRNY 業務部門，並聘請了一位卓有成就的軟件領導者作為首席數字官，以帶頭我們的努力並協助我們整體的長期數字化轉型。

I'm really pleased at how we've been able to drive profitability in addition to top line growth by significantly decreasing the level of product promotions, implementing select price increases on key products and cross-promoting in-stock items when core items go out of stock.

我真的很高興我們能夠通過顯著降低產品促銷水平、對關鍵產品實施選擇性提價以及在核心商品缺貨時交叉促銷庫存商品來提高營收增長以外的盈利能力庫存。

During the quarter, we continued to produce strong customer metrics versus the same quarter a year ago, including a 3x increase in traffic on bowflex.com, much of which was organic.

在本季度，我們繼續產生與去年同期相比強勁的客戶指標，包括 Bowflex.com 的流量增加了 3 倍，其中大部分是有機流量。

In addition, we saw a 7x increase in new customer acquisition as we capitalized on the opportunity to introduce new customers to our brands.

此外，當我們利用這個機會向我們的品牌介​​紹新客戶時，我們的新客戶獲取量增加了 7 倍。

We've continued to be a strong partner in our retail channel during a time when others have pulled back, working closely with our retail partners to allocate scarce inventory.

在其他人退出的時期，我們仍然是我們零售渠道的強大合作夥伴，與我們的零售合作夥伴密切合作以分配稀缺庫存。

We further increased our momentum with Best Buy and launched a program with Costco Canada in July.

我們進一步增強了與百思買 (Best Buy) 的合作勢頭，並於 7 月與加拿大好市多 (Costco Canada) 啟動了一項計劃。

We believe many of these accomplishments will bring enduring long-term value to the company.

我們相信其中許多成就將為公司帶來持久的長期價值。

It's notable that we produced these results while fighting through a constant series of operational challenges, including intermittent port closures, inbound shipping delays due to an imbalance of shipping containers in China, outbound shipping constraints imposed by domestic carriers and launching new products at factories despite travel restrictions.

值得注意的是，我們在取得這些成果的同時，還克服了一系列持續的運營挑戰，包括間歇性港口關閉、中國集裝箱不平衡導致的入境運輸延誤、國內承運人施加的出境運輸限制以及儘管旅行仍在工廠推出新產品限制。

One of the things I'm most proud of is the way our leadership team performed and in particular, what they achieved on multiple dimensions all at the same time, balancing short-term and long-term routine issues with emerging new challenges and the delivery of outstanding business results while caring for our customers and our people.

我最自豪的一件事是我們的領導團隊的表現方式，特別是他們同時在多個維度上取得的成就，平衡短期和長期的日常問題與新出現的挑戰和交付取得出色的業務成果，同時關心我們的客戶和員工。

Producing these financial results would have been incredible on their own, but we also completed our long-term North Star planning work, which I'll elaborate on in a moment; successfully completed the sale of Octane Fitness to reduce cost and focus on the in-home fitness market; and provided strong leadership and support to our teams as they faced a series of personal challenges: the effects and stress of the pandemic, greater isolation of working from home on an extended basis and racial and equity concerns.

產生這些財務業績本身就令人難以置信，但我們也完成了長期的北極星規劃工作，我將在稍後詳細闡述；成功完成Octane Fitness出售，降低成本，專注家庭健身市場；並在我們的團隊面臨一系列個人挑戰時提供了強有力的領導和支持：大流行的影響和壓力、長期在家工作的更大隔離以及種族和公平問題。

In addition, the region we call home experienced threats and health concerns due to devastating wildfires.

此外，我們稱之為家鄉的地區還經歷了毀滅性野火帶來的威脅和健康問題。

Like a family, we pulled together to support one another.

我們就像一家人一樣，齊心協力，互相支持。

During the quarter, we learned -- we also learned that our company earned a Best Places To Work award for the eighth straight year.

在本季度，我們還了解到，我們的公司連續第八年獲得最佳工作場所獎。

While no one can predict the magnitude and duration of the at-home fitness trend, I know investors want to know what -- how we're thinking about it, reacting to it and planning accordingly.

雖然沒有人能夠預測家庭健身趨勢的規模和持續時間，但我知道投資者想知道什麼——我們如何思考它、對此做出反應並做出相應的規劃。

As the quarter evolved, our results and research reaffirmed our previous statements that there will be both short-term temporary effects and longer-term to permanent impacts from COVID at-home trends.

隨著本季度的發展，我們的結果和研究重申了我們之前的聲明，即新冠疫情居家趨勢既會產生短期暫時影響，也會產生長期甚至永久性影響。

More states reopened gyms as the quarter progressed, yet the demand for home fitness did not waiver.

隨著本季度的進展，更多的州重新開放了健身房，但家庭健身的需求並沒有減弱。

Overall, we continue to see signs of a prolonged and permanent new normal for the home fitness market and our brands and products.

總體而言，我們繼續看到家庭健身市場以及我們的品牌和產品長期且永久的新常態的跡象。

First, a significant percentage of gym goers, 12% to 30%, say they will not ever return to the gym.

首先，很大一部分去健身房的人（12% 到 30%）表示他們永遠不會再去健身房。

Even if only partly true, this will have a profound permanent impact.

即使只是部分正確，這也將產生深遠的永久影響。

Second, the majority of the rest say they will stay away until the vaccine has been administered at scale or when they feel safer.

其次，其餘大多數人表示，他們會遠離疫苗，直到大規模接種疫苗或當他們感到更安全時。

We believe we'll see long-term impacts from these people as well, with some lasting changes in workout habits and spending.

我們相信，我們也會看到這些人的長期影響，包括鍛煉習慣和支出的一些持久變化。

Why?

為什麼？

In the pandemic, many more people were exposed to both the convenience of at-home fitness and the benefits of connected fitness.

在疫情期間，更多的人體驗到了家庭健身的便利和聯網健身的好處。

This group will minimally balance gym and at-home workout in a new normal, similar to the way we suspect many will change the way they're balancing being in the office and working from home.

這個群體將在新常態下最低限度地平衡健身房和家庭鍛煉，類似於我們懷疑許多人會改變他們平衡在辦公室和在家工作的方式。

We do not think they will choose either/or, but instead balance at-home and gym workouts differently.

我們認為他們不會選擇非此即彼，而是會以不同的方式平衡家庭鍛煉和健身房鍛煉。

We have also heard from many that in the event of a resurgence of this virus or if another virus or strain emerges, they do not ever want to be caught again without an option to work out at home.

我們還從許多人那裡聽說，如果這種病毒捲土重來，或者出現另一種病毒或毒株，他們不想再次被感染而無法在家鍛煉。

Third, more people have been exposed to our brands and products than ever before.

第三，接觸我們品牌和產品的人比以往任何時候都多。

Fourth, retailers have seen an acceleration of their own digital transformations towards online ordering, both e-commerce growth and greater use of in-store and curbside pickup.

第四，零售商看到自己的在線訂購數字化轉型正在加速，包括電子商務的增長以及店內和路邊提貨的更多使用。

As an omnichannel seller, we believe we stand to benefit from this with the relaxation of traditional store space and price point restrictions and from more retailers carrying fitness products.

作為全渠道賣家，我們相信，隨著傳統商店空間和價格點限制的放寬以及更多銷售健身產品的零售商的推出，我們將從中受益。

The final point I'll mention is that the growth and resulting cash generation can be used to fuel our increased investment on what we believe will matter most in the long run: brand, marketing and consumer insights, technology and digital experiences and new capabilities and talent in targeted areas.

我要提到的最後一點是，增長和由此產生的現金可用於推動我們增加對我們認為從長遠來看最重要的方面的投資：品牌、營銷和消費者洞察、技術和數字體驗以及新功能和目標領域的人才。

Accordingly, with this long-term outlook in mind, we have made short-term decisions in all areas of our business.

因此，考慮到這一長期前景，我們在所有業務領域都做出了短期決策。

Here are a couple of examples.

這裡有幾個例子。

We have invested heavily in inventory for the next few quarters, focusing on key products we believe will be perennial best sellers.

我們在接下來的幾個季度對庫存進行了大量投資，重點關注我們認為將常年暢銷的關鍵產品。

Our teams are working with our supply chain partners globally to alleviate supply constraints.

我們的團隊正在與全球供應鏈合作夥伴合作，以緩解供應限制。

We have an ambitious goal to no longer be supply-constrained by sometime in Q2 of 2021.

我們有一個雄心勃勃的目標，即在 2021 年第二季度的某個時候不再受到供應限制。

We believe the pandemic effect has already significantly increased the size of our addressable market as the much larger club membership market blends with the at-home market.

我們相信，隨著更大的俱樂部會員市場與國內市場的融合，大流行的影響已經顯著擴大了我們的潛在市場規模。

To help capture this opportunity, we have launched new marketing initiatives, modified the JRNY road map accordingly, and we'll be adding new products targeted at the needs of displaced gym goers.

為了幫助抓住這個機會，我們推出了新的營銷舉措，相應地修改了 JRNY 路線圖，並且我們將添加針對流離失所的健身愛好者需求的新產品。

We will monitor leading indicators and evolving consumer insights as we continue to make strategic decisions.

在繼續制定戰略決策的過程中，我們將監控領先指標和不斷變化的消費者洞察。

At this time, we see no indicators of waning demand or evidence of saturation.

目前，我們沒有看到需求減弱或飽和的跡象。

To this end, the pandemic has made it difficult to forecast the next quarter, let alone the full year.

為此，疫情使得預測下個季度變得困難，更不用說全年了。

But we now feel like we have enough visibility to share some guidance for the fourth quarter.

但我們現在覺得我們有足夠的知名度來分享第四季度的一些指導。

Aina will discuss that with you in just a moment.

艾娜稍後將與您討論這個問題。

Before I pass this to Aina, I want to briefly cover progress on our North Star strategic plan.

在向艾娜傳達這一信息之前，我想簡要介紹一下我們的北極星戰略計劃的進展情況。

As you've heard on our past calls, I came to Nautilus because I thought we had some of the right ingredients to turn the company around and return to our industry leadership position, but we needed to point the ship in the right direction with a new transformative strategic plan.

正如您在過去的電話會議中所聽到的那樣，我來到 Nautilus 是因為我認為我們擁有一些正確的要素來扭轉公司局面並重返行業領導地位，但我們需要通過新的變革戰略計劃。

I'm happy to report we have completed this work on this plan and are currently rolling it out company-wide.

我很高興地向大家報告，我們已經完成了該計劃的工作，目前正在全公司範圍內推廣。

By the end of the fourth quarter, we will be in full execution mode.

到第四季度末，我們將處於全面執行模式。

To allow us to focus on implementing it internally, we will not be discussing it externally until early 2021.

為了讓我們能夠專注於內部實施，我們要到 2021 年初才會進行外部討論。

But I'd like to offer some of my thoughts on our plan.

但我想就我們的計劃提出一些我的想法。

First, our plan builds on the company's strengths: our well-known brands, our reputation for quality, our broad and option-filled product portfolio, our legacy of innovation and our resilient and customer-focused company culture.

首先，我們的計劃建立在公司的優勢之上：我們的知名品牌、我們的質量聲譽、我們廣泛且充滿選擇的產品組合、我們的創新傳統以及我們富有彈性和以客戶為中心的公司文化。

It addresses the weaknesses we had and the underlying issues, such as failure to understand consumer segments, their wants, needs and shopping habits as much as we should have, falling behind on connected fitness and general lack of focus.

它解決了我們的弱點和根本問題，例如未能充分了解消費者群體、他們的需求和購物習慣，在互聯健身方面落後以及普遍缺乏重點。

It will continue to turn the company into a stronger, more resilient and more digital version of itself.

它將繼續將公司打造成一個更強大、更有彈性、更加數字化的公司。

As a long-term strategy, this is the right direction with or without the COVID impact.

作為一項長期戰略，無論有沒有新冠疫情影響，這都是正確的方向。

The COVID at-home trend merely adds greater opportunity and enhanced urgency.

新冠疫情居家趨勢只會增加更多的機會和更大的緊迫性。

Our strengthened balance sheet will provide the fuel for this acceleration.

我們強化的資產負債表將為這一加速提供動力。

We are now entering full execution mode.

我們現在正在進入完全執行模式。

But in fact, we've been executing on elements of this plan for the last year.

但事實上，去年我們一直在執行該計劃的要素。

Examples include the new products launched in 2020 to accelerate connected fitness across the portfolio; the sale of Octane Fitness; and key executive hires, including Chief Financial Officer, Chief Marketing Officer and Chief Digital Officer.

例如，2020 年推出的新產品旨在加速整個產品組合的互聯健身；出售 Octane Fitness；以及關鍵高管的任命，包括首席財務官、首席營銷官和首席數字官。

I'd now like to turn it over to our CFO, Aina Konold, who'll go over our financial results in more detail.

我現在想將其交給我們的首席財務官艾娜·科諾德（Aina Konold），她將更詳細地審查我們的財務業績。

Aina?

艾娜？

Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝吉姆，大家下午好。

Before I begin, I'd like to echo Jim's comments about how incredibly proud we are of the way our team worked together to overcome so many challenges in Q3 and deliver these truly phenomenal results.

在開始之前，我想回應吉姆的評論，他說我們對我們的團隊在第三季度共同努力克服眾多挑戰並取得這些真正驚人的成果感到非常自豪。

I'll start by speaking to the total company P&L for Q3 2020 with comparisons to Q3 2019.

我首先將介紹 2020 年第三季度的公司總損益表，並與 2019 年第三季度進行比較。

Similar to last quarter, I'll be speaking to adjusted numbers because of a nonrecurring entry related to our commercial brand, Octane Fitness, which we sold on October 14.

與上季度類似，我將談論調整後的數字，因為與我們的商業品牌 Octane Fitness 相關的非經常性條目，我們於 10 月 14 日出售了該品牌。

The adjusted P&L excludes the $8 million gain on the disposal group.

調整後的損益表不包括處置集團的 800 萬美元收益。

Please see the press release and our website for a reconciliation of these non-GAAP numbers to our reported results.

請參閱新聞稿和我們的網站，了解這些非 GAAP 數據與我們報告的結果的對照表。

Net sales were up 152% to $155 million.

淨銷售額增長 152%，達到 1.55 億美元。

This quarter sales are the best in this decade and marked our third consecutive quarter of sales growth.

本季度的銷售額是近十年來最好的，標誌著我們連續第三個季度的銷售額增長。

Our team performed extremely well to meet an extended period of heightened demand.

我們的團隊表現非常出色，可以滿足長期不斷增長的需求。

And though we continue to expand production and invest in expedited shipping, supply remained insufficient to meet the demand in the quarter, and we entered Q4 with nearly $68 million in back orders.

儘管我們繼續擴大生產並投資加急運輸，但供應仍然不足以滿足本季度的需求，進入第四季度時，我們有近 6800 萬美元的缺貨訂單。

Our gross margin rate increased by almost 1,280 basis points to 44%.

我們的毛利率增加了近 1,280 個基點，達到 44%。

Gross profit was $68 million, up 256%.

毛利潤為 6800 萬美元，增長 256%。

Strong execution across both segments was a key driver of this increase.

這兩個細分市場的強勁執行力是這一增長的關鍵驅動力。

A change in sales mix was also a factor.

銷售組合的變化也是一個因素。

Typically, Retail makes up the vast majority of Q3 sales.

通常，零售業佔第三季度銷售額的絕大多數。

But this year, Direct penetration was higher, 39% of net sale -- of total sales versus only 26% last year.

但今年，直接滲透率更高，占淨銷售額的 39%（佔總銷售額的 39%），而去年僅為 26%。

Lastly, in COGS, we saw tremendous expense leverage, partially offset by increases in transportation costs, driven by the disruptions in global logistics.

最後，在銷貨成本方面，我們看到了巨大的費用槓桿，但部分被全球物流中斷導致的運輸成本增加所抵消。

We thought this was a sprint, then a 10K, and now we're realizing that its turned into a marathon.

我們以為這是一場短跑，然後是一萬公里，現在我們意識到它變成了一場馬拉松。

This amount of cost leverage is not sustainable, and we have already begun to invest more in our DCs and logistics teams to meet the surge in demand.

這種成本槓桿是不可持續的，我們已經開始對配送中心和物流團隊進行更多投資，以滿足激增的需求。

Turning now to adjusted operating expenses.

現在轉向調整後的運營費用。

We saw incredible expense leverage in OpEx, down to 21% of net sales versus 44% last year.

我們看到運營支出的費用槓桿令人難以置信，占淨銷售額的比例下降至 21%，而去年為 44%。

Selling and marketing expenses were down to 12% of net sales versus 28% last year.

銷售和營銷費用占淨銷售額的比例從去年的 28% 降至 12%。

We spent $19 million this quarter versus $17 million last year, and the increase was in advertising to support the launch of the new VeloCore bikes.

本季度我們花費了 1,900 萬美元，而去年為 1,700 萬美元，增加的廣告費用用於支持新款 VeloCore 自行車的推出。

Advertising spend was $8 million this year compared to $6 million last year.

今年的廣告支出為 800 萬美元，而去年為 600 萬美元。

R&D costs were down to 3% of net sales versus 5% last year.

研發成本占淨銷售額的比例從去年的 5% 降至 3%。

Cost increased by $1 million to $4 million this year, primarily driven by investments in JRNY and in product development targeting gym goers.

今年成本增加了 100 萬美元至 400 萬美元，主要是由於對 JRNY 的投資以及針對健身愛好者的產品開發。

G&A expenses were down to 6% of sales versus 11% last year.

G&A 費用佔銷售額的比例下降至 6%，而去年為 11%。

Costs increased by $2 million to $9 million, driven by increased bonus and stock comp due to our improved performance and initial investments in capabilities needed for our North Star transformation.

成本增加了 200 萬美元至 900 萬美元，原因是我們的績效提高以及對北極星轉型所需能力的初始投資導致獎金和股票補償增加。

We're really proud of how our team stretched to meet the increased workload in the last 2 quarters, but we recognize that these significant levels of expense leverage are not sustainable.

我們對我們的團隊如何努力應對過去兩個季度增加的工作量感到非常自豪，但我們認識到，如此高的費用槓桿水平是不可持續的。

Certainly, it's difficult to predict the magnitude and duration of the enhanced demand for our products.

當然，很難預測對我們產品的需求增加的幅度和持續時間。

But since we haven't seen any waning in demand, we've begun to reinvest in areas where increased sales volume generates incremental work.

但由於我們沒有看到需求有任何減弱，我們已經開始對銷量增加帶來增量工作的領域進行再投資。

Adjusted operating income was $36 million, an improvement of $44 million versus last year's loss.

調整後營業收入為 3600 萬美元，比去年的虧損增加了 4400 萬美元。

This quarter's adjusted operating margin of 23% is a 15-year high.

本季度調整後營業利潤率為 23%，創 15 年來新高。

Adjusted income from continuing ops increased to $28 million or $0.87 per diluted share compared to last year's loss of $9 million or minus $0.29 per diluted share.

持續運營調整後的收入增至 2800 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.87 美元，而去年的虧損為 900 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益減去 0.29 美元。

And lastly, adjusted EBITDA from continuing ops improved by $43 million.

最後，持續運營帶來的調整後 EBITDA 提高了 4300 萬美元。

We delivered $37 million of adjusted EBITDA compared to a loss of $6 million last year.

我們實現了 3700 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，而去年則虧損 600 萬美元。

Adjusted EBITDA margin was 24%.

調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 24%。

Turning now to Q3 2020 performance by segment.

現在來看看 2020 年第三季度各細分市場的表現。

I'll be comparing this year's Q3 results with last year's Q3 results.

我將把今年第三季度的結果與去年第三季度的結果進行比較。

Starting with Direct.

從直接開始。

Net sales were $61 million, up 278%, with both cardio and strength delivering strong performance.

淨銷售額為 6100 萬美元，增長 278%，有氧運動和力量訓練均表現強勁。

Cardio grew 256%, driven by our connected fitness bikes, the Bowflex C6 and Schwinn IC4.

在我們的互聯健身自行車、Bowflex C6 和 Schwinn IC4 的推動下，有氧運動增長了 256%。

SelectTech weights and benches drove the 349% increase in strength.

SelectTech 舉重和訓練凳使力量增加了 349%。

The Q3 backlog was $23 million compared to $21 million in Q2.

第三季度積壓訂單為 2,300 萬美元，而第二季度為 2,100 萬美元。

The gross margin rate expanded by 19 percentage points to 57%, driven by strong execution and expense leverage, partially offset by higher transportation costs.

在強勁的執行力和費用槓桿的推動下，毛利率擴大了 19 個百分點，達到 57%，但部分被運輸成本上升所抵消。

Gross profit of $35 million was up 463%.

毛利潤達 3500 萬美元，增長 463%。

Segment contribution was $18 million compared to a loss of $9 million last year.

部門貢獻為 1800 萬美元，而去年虧損 900 萬美元。

The $26 million improvement was driven primarily by increases in gross profit, partially offset by the $2 million increase in advertising for the VeloCore bike launch.

2600 萬美元的增長主要是由毛利潤的增長推動的，但部分被 VeloCore 自行車發布廣告費用增加的 200 萬美元所抵消。

Turning now to Retail.

現在轉向零售。

Net sales were a historic high of $93 million, up 108%.

淨銷售額創歷史新高，達 9300 萬美元，增長 108%。

Cardio sales were up $103 million, driven by bikes like the Schwinn IC4 and ellipticals.

在 Schwinn IC4 和橢圓機等自行車的推動下，有氧運動銷售額增長了 1.03 億美元。

Strength sales were up 128%, driven by SelectTech weights and benches.

在 SelectTech 舉重器械和訓練凳的推動下，力量器械銷量增長了 128%。

Importantly, if we exclude Octane brand sales, Q3 net sales of the Retail segment grew 132%.

重要的是，如果我們排除 Octane 品牌的銷售額，零售部門第三季度的淨銷售額增長了 132%。

Q3's backlog was $45 million compared to $14 million in Q2.

第三季度的積壓訂單為 4500 萬美元，而第二季度為 1400 萬美元。

The gross margin rate was 34%, up 720 basis points, driven by favorable customer mix and expense leverage, partially offset by higher transportation costs.

受有利的客戶組合和費用槓桿的推動，毛利率為 34%，上升 720 個基點，但部分被較高的運輸成本所抵消。

Gross profit of $32 million was up 162%.

毛利潤達 3200 萬美元，增長 162%。

Segment contribution was $23 million, up 391%.

部門貢獻為 2300 萬美元，增長 391%。

The improvement was driven largely by higher gross profit and operating expense leverage.

這一改善主要是由於毛利潤和營業費用槓桿率的提高所致。

Turning now to the balance sheet and other Q3 highlights.

現在轉向資產負債表和其他第三季度亮點。

Quick reminder, similar to Q2, we've grouped the assets and liabilities associated with Octane into current assets held for sale and current liabilities held for sale on the face of our balance sheet.

快速提醒一下，與第二季度類似，我們在資產負債表上將與 Octane 相關的資產和負債分為持有待售的流動資產和持有待售的流動負債。

Please see our press release in our website for more detail regarding this presentation.

請參閱我們網站上的新聞稿，了解有關本次演示的更多詳細信息。

Strong sales growth and great flow-through to earnings resulted in a much stronger liquidity position at the end of the quarter.

強勁的銷售增長和巨大的收益流入導致季度末的流動性狀況更加強勁。

Q3 was our fourth consecutive quarter of positive cash flow.

第三季度是我們連續第四個季度實現正現金流。

Cash was $72 million, $61 million higher than year-end 2019.

現金為 7200 萬美元，比 2019 年底增加 6100 萬美元。

Debt of $14 million was flat to year-end, and we had $49 million available for borrowing on our Wells Fargo credit facility.

1400 萬美元的債務到年底持平，我們有 4900 萬美元可用於富國銀行信貸安排的借款。

AR was $69 million, 26% higher than year-end.

AR 為 6,900 萬美元，比年底增長 26%。

The increase was due primarily to the timing of customer payments, partially offset by certain receivables being included in the Octane held for sale disposal group.

增加的主要原因是客戶付款的時間安排，部分被包含在辛烷持有待售處置組中的某些應收賬款所抵消。

Trade payables were $83 million, 12% higher than year-end, due primarily to the timing of inventory payments and increased advertising-related payments.

應付賬款為 8,300 萬美元，比年底增加 12%，這主要是由於庫存付款的時間安排和廣告相關付款的增加。

CapEx at the end of Q3 totaled $8 million.

第三季度末的資本支出總計 800 萬美元。

Inventory is down 38% to $34 million compared to $55 million at year-end.

庫存下降 38%，至 3400 萬美元，而年底為 5500 萬美元。

The decrease is due to $11 million of inventory being re-classed into the Octane held for sale disposal group and the continued tightened demand.

減少的原因是 1100 萬美元的庫存被重新分類到待售處置組的辛烷以及持續收緊的需求。

Even though we have significantly expanded our factory capacity, demand is still outpacing supply.

儘管我們顯著擴大了工廠產能，但需求仍然超過供應。

So to guarantee capacity in our suppliers' factories, we further increased our PO commitments.

因此，為了保證供應商工廠的產能，我們進一步增加了 PO 承諾。

At the end of Q3, we had about $227 million of open POs for our Bowflex, Schwinn and Nautilus products.

截至第三季度末，我們的 Bowflex、Schwinn 和 Nautilus 產品的未結採購訂單約為 2.27 億美元。

We haven't seen any indication of waning demand or saturation and the POs we've committed to our perennial bestsellers.

我們沒有看到任何需求減弱或飽和的跡象，也沒有看到我們對常年暢銷書所承諾的採購訂單。

Should demand slow down, we believe we will still be able to sell through these units just at a slower pace.

如果需求放緩，我們相信我們仍然能夠以較慢的速度銷售這些單位。

I'd like to turn now to our expectations for the full year.

我現在想談談我們對全年的期望。

We don't typically provide forward-looking guidance.

我們通常不提供前瞻性指導。

But given how atypical this year's seasonality has been, we wanted to provide some color on how we're viewing full year results.

但考慮到今年的季節性非常不典型，我們希望提供一些關於我們如何看待全年業績的信息。

We expect full year net sales to be between $540 million and $565 million.

我們預計全年淨銷售額將在 5.4 億美元至 5.65 億美元之間。

The sales range is intended to capture the volatility in the logistics environment as our revenue recognition is tied to when items are shipped.

銷售範圍旨在反映物流環境的波動性，因為我們的收入確認與物品的發貨時間相關。

We think it's helpful to share with you the 3 factors we considered when forecasting net sales.

我們認為與您分享我們在預測淨銷售額時考慮的 3 個因素會有所幫助。

The first is supply.

首先是供應。

Given we are 6 weeks into the quarter, we have clearer visibility to factory capacity and output.

鑑於本季度已過去 6 週，我們對工廠產能和產量有了更清晰的了解。

The second is demand.

二是需求。

We entered the quarter with over $68 million in backlog and have not seen a drop-off in demand when gyms began to reopen.

進入本季度時，我們的積壓訂單已超過 6800 萬美元，並且當健身房開始重新開放時，需求並未下降。

The third is related to shipping.

第三個是與航運相關的。

Given the current environment, it has been more difficult to predict inbound and outbound shipping schedules, which directly impacts our ability to predict when sales are recognized.

在當前環境下，預測進出港運輸時間表變得更加困難，這直接影響了我們預測何時確認銷售的能力。

Like other companies, we are working through the full impact of the disruptions in the global logistics network.

與其他公司一樣，我們正在努力應對全球物流網絡中斷的全面影響。

The transportation industry is preparing for an unprecedented e-commerce volumes this holiday season.

運輸行業正在為這個假期前所未有的電子商務量做準備。

The lack of outgoing shipping containers from China was a big driver of Retail's backlog in Q3, and it appears that this issue will continue for the next few months.

中國出口集裝箱的缺乏是第三季度零售業積壓的一個重要因素，而且這個問題似乎將在未來幾個月持續存在。

Domestically, our carriers have already limited our shipping volumes.

在國內，我們的承運商已經限制了我們的運輸量。

We're adding more carriers to our network but cannot fully predict at this time how much more constrained we will be after Black Friday.

我們正在向我們的網絡添加更多運營商，但目前無法完全預測黑色星期五之後我們將受到多少限制。

Turning now to CapEx.

現在轉向資本支出。

We are raising our full year capital expenditure guidance to be between $10 million and $13 million as we plan to invest more in JRNY and to our overall technology infrastructure.

我們將全年資本支出指導提高到 1000 萬至 1300 萬美元，因為我們計劃對 JRNY 和我們的整體技術基礎設施進行更多投資。

And we expect full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $90 million and $100 million.

我們預計全年調整後 EBITDA 將在 9000 萬至 1 億美元之間。

We expect Q4 gross margins to be lower than Q3's.

我們預計第四季度的毛利率將低於第三季度。

Aside from continued pressure on transportation costs, we've already invested in additional resources in our DCs and logistics teams to support our increased volume.

除了運輸成本持續面臨壓力之外，我們還向配送中心和物流團隊投入了額外的資源，以支持我們不斷增長的銷量。

We also expect increases in operating expenses as we plan on investing more in marketing to support our new connected fitness products that we'll be launching between now and early Q1.

我們還預計運營費用會增加，因為我們計劃在營銷方面投入更多資金，以支持我們將從現在到第一季度初推出的新聯網健身產品。

And we are making continued investments in our JRNY digital platform, which is a key pillar in our long-term transformation.

我們正在對 JRNY 數字平台進行持續投資，這是我們長期轉型的關鍵支柱。

One final item to mention.

最後要提到的一項。

Today, we'll be filing an S-3.

今天，我們將提交 S-3。

We view this as good corporate finance housekeeping.

我們認為這是良好的企業財務管理。

We have no immediate plans to raise and use additional capital.

我們沒有立即計劃籌集和使用額外資金。

We've completed our long-term strategy and have begun to roll it out internally with a plan to share it externally early next year.

我們已經完成了長期戰略，並開始在內部推廣，併計劃明年初向外部分享。

A shelf registration will provide us with more efficient access to the capital markets and will allow us to act opportunistically to support the growth objectives outlined in our North Star strategy.

擱置註冊將使我們能夠更有效地進入資本市場，並使我們能夠抓住機會採取行動，以支持我們的北極星戰略中概述的增長目標。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Jim for his final comments.

現在我想將電話轉回吉姆以徵求他的最終意見。

Jim?

吉姆？

Thank you, Aina.

謝謝你，艾娜。

The past 4 quarters have been a real journey for our company.

過去的四個季度對我們公司來說是一段真正的旅程。

We endured a devastating 2019 and lost 22% of our revenue base, resulting in a 13% cut of our workforce.

我們經歷了災難性的 2019 年，收入基礎損失了 22%，員工人數也減少了 13%。

Morale was low, but people could see a change on the horizon.

士氣低落，但人們可以看到即將發生的變化。

A moderate change in the trajectory of our business began at the end of Q4 as we rolled out new products, hired team members of our executive team, began to take action against the root causes of the company's decline and focused on personalized connected fitness.

我們的業務軌跡從第四季度末開始發生了適度的變化，我們推出了新產品，聘請了執行團隊的團隊成員，開始針對公司衰退的根本原因採取行動，並專注於個性化互聯健身。

Q1 was shaping up to be a good quarter, and then COVID hit, and it turned in to be a great quarter.

第一季度本來是一個不錯的季度，但後來新冠疫情來襲，結果變成了一個很棒的季度。

We had our first top line growth since 2018 and began selling out a product, with the team quickly responding to meet the surge in demand.

自 2018 年以來，我們的收入首次增長，並開始銷售產品，團隊迅速做出響應，以滿足需求的激增。

What started out as a temporary surge became longer term in Q2 and was a historical blockbuster quarter for the company.

最初的暫時激增在第二季度變得更長，並且是該公司歷史上的重磅季度。

All channels delivered historic results.

所有渠道都取得了歷史性的成果。

We sustained that performance and response, which led to Q3 being our most profitable quarter in history.

我們保持了這樣的業績和反應，這使得第三季度成為我們歷史上利潤最高的季度。

It is important to point out that pre-COVID, we were already on track for sequential improvements and have been implementing changes to position ourselves for long-term profitable growth.

需要指出的是，在新冠疫情爆發之前，我們已經走上了連續改進的軌道，並一直在實施變革，以實現長期盈利增長。

COVID only accelerated those plans.

新冠疫情只是加速了這些計劃。

We have been and will continue to be -- dedicate significant time and energy to our transformative, long-term strategic work.

我們已經並將繼續為我們的變革性長期戰略工作投入大量時間和精力。

Lastly, but most importantly, I want to end by again thanking our employees and our partners who stand committed to our mission.

最後但最重要的是，我想再次感謝致力於我們使命的員工和合作夥伴。

I look forward to all that we can accomplish together.

我期待著我們能夠共同完成的一切。

And now I'd like to open up the call to your questions.

現在我想開始回答你們的問題。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Mike Swartz with Truist Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mike Swartz。

Just wanted to start out, I know Jim and Aina, you both mentioned a number of times some incremental investments in the business and understanding some of that in the near term is simply working capital inventory.

只是想開始，我知道吉姆和艾娜，你們都多次提到了對業務的一些增量投資，並理解其中一些短期內只是營運資本庫存。

But I think you also mentioned DC, logistics, marketing.

但我想你也提到了配送中心、物流、營銷。

Maybe give us a sense of -- I know this is a very odd year.

也許會給我們一種感覺——我知道這是非常奇怪的一年。

But give us a sense -- maybe the magnitude of those investments and how we should think about those running through the P&L over the next couple of quarters.

但請讓我們了解一下——也許這些投資的規模以及我們應該如何考慮未來幾個季度損益表中的投資。

Well, for Q4, the adjusted EBITDA guidance should give you that perspective.

那麼，對於第四季度，調整後的 EBITDA 指導應該會給你這樣的視角。

I'm telling you that Q4 gross margins are going to be lower than Q3 and that expenses will be higher.

我告訴你，第四季度的毛利率將低於第三季度，而且費用會更高。

When it comes to beyond Q4, I'd like to just sort of wait until we launch and talk about our -- externally our long-term transformation because that will give you more color on how much investment we'll have for the next few years.

當談到第四季度之後的情況時，我想等到我們啟動並在外部談論我們的長期轉型，因為這會讓您更清楚地了解我們在接下來的幾年中將有多少投資年。

Conceptually, I'll just add that they kind of fall in a couple of buckets.

從概念上講，我只想補充一點，它們可以分為幾個類別。

One is sort of activity-based, based on volume.

一種是基於活動、基於數量的。

Places like adding people in our DCs and in our customer care, where you just see the massive spike of activity, and we have to continue to serve our customers that way.

像在我們的配送中心和客戶服務中增加人員這樣的地方，你會看到活動的大量激增，我們必須繼續以這種方式為我們的客戶提供服務。

So that's some of what you've seen and what you'll continue to see.

這就是您已經看到的以及您將繼續看到的一些內容。

And then as we now go into execution mode for our long-term strategy, as I said, I mentioned that we really are going to be investing in a few different ways.

然後，正如我所說，當我們現在進入長期戰略的執行模式時，我提到我們確實將以幾種不同的方式進行投資。

One, we'll -- we're investing in marketing and in our brand.

第一，我們將投資於營銷和品牌。

Two, technology and our digital experiences.

第二，技術和我們的數字體驗。

And three, not a lot of headcount, but in key areas where we think our North Star plan is essentially a new sport we want to play or a change in the sport we want to play.

第三，人數不多，但在關鍵領域，我們認為我們的北極星計劃本質上是我們想要開展的一項新運動，或者是我們想要開展的運動的改變。

So when you do something like that, you see you need new athletes in a few spots.

因此，當你做類似的事情時，你會發現在一些地方需要新的運動員。

And I think one good example of that is the Chief Digital Officer that we launched -- or that we hired a couple of weeks ago in Garry Wiseman.

我認為一個很好的例子就是我們任命的首席數字官——或者我們幾週前聘請的加里·懷斯曼（Garry Wiseman）。

Okay.

好的。

And just a second question, if I can.

還有第二個問題，如果可以的話。

Just in terms of new product cadence and launch schedules.

僅就新產品節奏和發佈時間表而言。

I know, again, this is an odd year relative to historic years.

我再次知道，與歷史年份相比，今年是奇怪的一年。

But typically in the past, you launch most of your products for the upcoming year in kind of the August to October time frame.

但通常在過去，您會在八月到十月的時間範圍內推出來年的大部分產品。

Is that the way we should be thinking about the business going forward and this year is just kind of an anomaly?

這是我們應該思考未來業務的方式嗎？而今年只是一種反常現象？

Or are you going to be looking to space product launches out throughout the year?

或者您打算全年安排產品發佈時間嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean I think you have to start with saying is -- there's really been no seasonality this year.

我的意思是，我認為你必須首先說——今年確實沒有季節性。

And the reason our product cadence had been the way that it was, was because there was some seasonality in the way people were buying products.

我們的產品節奏之所以如此，是因為人們購買產品的方式存在一些季節性。

With the accelerated demand and kind of a global lack of supply, it's not quite a normal year, we'll say.

我們可以說，隨著需求的加速和全球供應的缺乏，今年不是一個正常的一年。

And I'll just be honest with you.

我會誠實地告訴你。

When we launched VeloCore, for example, we launched it in a normal way, and we sold out too fast.

例如，當我們推出VeloCore時，我們以正常方式推出它，但我們賣得太快了。

So we kind of looked at that and said, "Hey, should -- is it most important to be first to market but then run out?

因此，我們對此進行了研究並說道：“嘿，應該——首先進入市場但隨後就耗盡是最重要的嗎？

Or should we build some inventory and then launch at a later date?" So we're still working through things like that.

或者我們應該建立一些庫存，然後稍後再推出？”所以我們仍在解決類似的問題。

And obviously, the options on the table would be to presell ahead of having inventory and just have an extended promise period or delay that and do a proper launch once we built up the inventories.

顯然，擺在桌面上的選擇是在擁有庫存之前進行預售，並延長承諾期或推遲承諾期，並在我們建立庫存後進行適當的發布。

It's been a really different year.

這是非常不同的一年。

I know we'll end up launching all those things between now and very early first quarter, but kind of the Black Friday cadence and things like that is probably not going to hold up exactly this year.

我知道我們最終會從現在到第一季度初推出所有這些東西，但黑色星期五的節奏和類似的東西今年可能不會持續下去。

We'll try to get as much as we can by then.

到那時我們會盡力獲得盡可能多的東西。

But even then, it would be extended promise periods.

但即便如此，承諾期也會延長。

And it'll be one of these things where I think, normally, it'd be great to have your product and your gift in your home by the time the holiday hits.

我認為，這將是其中之一，通常情況下，在假期到來時將您的產品和禮物放在家裡會很棒。

But I think more than anything else this year, people have learned that, hey, if you can just see your way, see a clear path to getting your product, what you want, you'll wait a little bit for it.

但我認為今年最重要的是，人們已經了解到，嘿，如果你能看到自己的方式，看到獲得你想要的產品的清晰途徑，你就會等待一段時間。

And both us and our competitors have kind of seen that type of thing.

我們和我們的競爭對手都見過這種事情。

So a little bit different year, Mike, this year, and we're just trying to figure out the very best ways to bring these products to market.

所以，邁克，今年有點不同，我們只是想找出將這些產品推向市場的最佳方法。

Our next question is from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自莎朗·扎克菲亞和威廉·布萊爾。

I have a couple of questions.

我有一些問題。

I guess I'm curious, with the pandemic and the growth in the space alongside the VeloCore introduction, kind of how both separately are impacting your customer demographic and your reach, if you're seeing any shift there versus kind of the 2019 traditional demographic for either Bowflex or Schwinn or pick your brand.

我想我很好奇，隨著大流行和 VeloCore 的推出，該領域的增長，兩者如何分別影響您的客戶群體和覆蓋範圍，如果您看到與 2019 年傳統人口群體相比有任何變化對於Bowflex或Schwinn 或選擇您的品牌。

And then I also wanted to ask about Costco in Canada, whether there was an opportunity to also bring the brand to Costco in the U.S.

然後我還想問一下加拿大的Costco，是否有機會把這個品牌也帶到美國的Costco。

Yes.

是的。

Great question, Sharon.

很好的問題，莎倫。

I'll start on the customer part, but we've got Becky Alseth, our CMO, on the phone.

我將從客戶部分開始，我們的首席營銷官 Becky Alseth 正在給我們打電話。

And she had spent most of her year in deep segmentation analysis and new customer segment analysis and so she may have more to add there.

她一年的大部分時間都花在深度細分分析和新客戶細分分析上，因此她可能還有更多需要補充的內容。

It's a great observation, Sharon.

這是一個很好的觀察，莎倫。

We've seen -- first of all, as I mentioned in my remarks, this quarter, we saw 7x the number of new customers that we saw in the year-ago quarter.

我們已經看到——首先，正如我在發言中提到的，本季度我們看到的新客戶數量是去年同期的 7 倍。

So we're introducing our brands and products to people that have never seen them before, and I think that makes sense based on everybody's need for this.

因此，我們正在向以前從未見過的人介紹我們的品牌和產品，我認為基於每個人的需求，這是有意義的。

And maybe they tried us a long time ago.

也許他們很久以前就嘗試過我們。

They're going to try us again.

他們會再次嘗試我們。

But building up that -- those new customers.

但要建立起來——那些新客戶。

Then we have segmentation work that I think Becky will explain better than me.

然後我們進行細分工作，我認為貝基會比我解釋得更好。

We've had a traditional segment of people who have been our strongest segment, and that segment of people has a name internally, but I won't confuse you with the name.

我們有一個傳統的部分人，他們是我們最強大的部分，這部分人在內部有一個名字，但我不會讓你與這個名字混淆。

But we've really been successful for years and years in getting -- reaching a set of customers that honestly doesn't love exercising as much as some of the other segments.

但多年來，我們確實成功地吸引了一批老實說不像其他一些細分市場那樣喜歡鍛煉的客戶。

And it's sort of astounding to me that we've been able to do as well as we have getting those folks off the couch, getting them in gear and then helping them on their journey.

讓我感到驚訝的是，我們能夠讓這些人離開沙發，讓他們做好準備，然後幫助他們完成他們的旅程。

And we feel fantastic about that and feel that that's a major part of our mission.

我們對此感到非常高興，並認為這是我們使命的重要組成部分。

While doing that, I think we missed some segments of -- a couple of different segments that actually like exercising quite a bit more.

在這樣做的過程中，我認為我們錯過了一些部分——幾個實際上更喜歡鍛煉的不同部分。

And I don't know if it was the way we went to market or infomercials late at night or what exactly it was, but we ended up kind of overindexing on that first group I mentioned and underindexing on people we think we can be extremely, extremely successful with.

我不知道這是否是我們深夜去市場或電視廣告的方式，或者到底是什麼，但我們最終對我提到的第一組人進行了過度索引，並對我們認為我們可以極端的人進行了索引不足，非常成功。

So maybe that -- with that backdrop, Becky, anything to add there?

那麼也許——在這樣的背景下，貝基，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, Jim.

是的，吉姆。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sharon, I think the other thing is, as Jim said, we really went to market after one set of consumers who really preferred home fitness.

莎倫，我認為另一件事是，正如吉姆所說，我們確實是在一群真正喜歡家庭健身的消費者之後進入市場的。

But as many more consumers had to turn to home fitness, we have actively targeted them.

但隨著越來越多的消費者不得不轉向家庭健身，我們積極瞄準了他們。

So people that in the past would have been gym goers, we're really using some of our media and our messaging to actually target those people.

因此，過去經常去健身房的人，我們實際上是在使用我們的一些媒體和信息來真正瞄準這些人。

And when you see the growth in some of our products, it's not coming from our traditional customer.

當你看到我們某些產品的增長時，你會發現它並不是來自我們的傳統客戶。

And then in addition to that, I think it's 30 years of advertising behind Bowflex.

除此之外，我認為 Bowflex 背後有 30 年的廣告經驗。

It's -- we really have quite high awareness for the brand so you see people organically coming to it.

我們對這個品牌確實有很高的認知度，所以你會看到人們自然而然地關注它。

And I think your other question was about Costco.

我認為你的另一個問題是關於 Costco 的。

And yes, the relationship with Costco is quite good.

是的，與 Costco 的關係相當好。

We've chosen to start with them in Canada, but we're very hopeful to have some programs very soon in the U.S.

我們選擇從加拿大開始，但我們非常希望很快在美國開展一些項目。

Our next call -- our next question is with Steve Dyer with Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個電話——我們的下一個問題是史蒂夫·戴爾和克雷格·哈勒姆的問題。

Congratulations to all of you on the exceptional results.

祝賀你們所有人取得的優異成績。

I guess digging into JRNY for a moment.

我想深入研究一下 JRNY。

I think everyone's sort of hungry for anything to sort of look at and gauge the traction there, and the closest that I can come aside from app downloads would be other nonroyalty revenue, which looks like there's a little bit of transportation in there as well, but a very, very small number still.

我認為每個人都渴望有任何東西可以觀察和衡量那裡的吸引力，除了應用程序下載之外，我能想到的最接近的是其他非版稅收入，看起來那裡也有一些交通，但仍然是一個非常非常小的數字。

Is that a decent proxy sort of for the traction that you're seeing with the paid JRNY apps?

這是您在付費 JRNY 應用程序中看到的吸引力的一個不錯的代表嗎？

You're right.

你說得對。

That's where that is found.

就是在那裡找到的。

I think similar to what you said, our focus right now, it's not just the subscription dollars, but the other metrics that we're looking at to see that it's become beloved by our members and that we're doing the right things to really make it an important pillar in our company go-forward.

我認為與您所說的類似，我們現在的重點不僅僅是訂閱費用，還有我們正在考慮的其他指標，以確保它受到我們的會員的喜愛，並且我們正在做正確的事情來真正實現這一目標。使其成為我們公司前進的重要支柱。

So we don't say a lot of metrics about it right now because it is small, but underlying it are these key things we're looking at to make sure that we provide really the best digital experience for our members.

因此，我們現在不會說太多關於它的指標，因為它很小，但其背後是我們正在關注的這些關鍵因素，以確保我們為我們的會員提供真正最好的數字體驗。

And then from there, we can talk about more of those metrics when it becomes a bigger portion of our pie.

然後，當這些指標在我們的餡餅中佔據更大的份額時，我們就可以討論更多這些指標。

And I'll just add.

我補充一下。

As we've discussed, one of the key things that our company missed was connected fitness, and we actually recovered quite well with the quality of the product and what's in it.

正如我們所討論的，我們公司錯過的關鍵事情之一是互聯健身，實際上我們在產品質量及其內容方面恢復得很好。

And we've got some really great differentiating features, and people who use JRNY really love it.

我們有一些非常出色的差異化功能，JRNY 的用戶非常喜歡它。

However, if you've not gotten it across the portfolio on as many machines and in a BYOD format as you'd like, the revenue is not where you want it to be.

但是，如果您沒有在盡可能多的機器上以 BYOD 格式跨過產品組合，那麼收入就不會達到您想要的水平。

So that is a big focus of our long-term strategic plan, is to not only make JRNY continue to evolve and be a differentiating experience, but more so to scale it.

因此，這是我們長期戰略計劃的一個重點，不僅是讓 JRNY 繼續發展並成為一種差異化的體驗，更重要的是擴大規模。

And that's where you'll start to see those particular numbers.

這就是您將開始看到這些特定數字的地方。

And we're going to be doing everything we can to scale it.

我們將盡一切努力來擴大規模。

And you've heard me talk about investing more in JRNY, and we have.

你們已經聽過我談到要加大對 JRNY 的投資，我們確實這麼做了。

We've got a leader in place.

我們已經有一位領導者了。

We've got a new business unit that focuses just on that particular business.

我們設立了一個新的業務部門，專門專注於該特定業務。

And as it becomes material, we'll be reporting that size.

當它變得重要時，我們將報告該大小。

But make no mistake, this is -- the #1 strategic initiative for our company is to scale JRNY and our digital experiences.

但毫無疑問，我們公司的第一大戰略舉措是擴大 JRNY 和我們的數字體驗。

And we'll do everything both organically and inorganically to make that happen.

我們將採取有機和無機的一切措施來實現這一目標。

Got it.

知道了。

And next one for me, just kind of jumping topics.

下一個對我來說只是一些跳躍性的話題。

As you look at the backlog that you have today, is there anything notable sort of in the composition looking forward maybe vis-à-vis how it's -- what your revenues look like over the last 6 months?

當您查看今天的積壓訂單時，未來 6 個月的收入情況是否有任何值得關注的地方？

Are you seeing any trends?

您看到任何趨勢嗎？

Or does it all hold pretty true to form with what you've seen so far?

或者這一切是否與您迄今為止所看到的完全一致？

It's holding pretty true to form.

它的形式非常真實。

A lot of them are the pent-up demand.

其中很多都是被壓抑的需求。

We've had such long promise periods for some of our key bestsellers, the usual suspects of IC bikes and also the weights and the benches.

我們對一些主要暢銷產品、IC自行車以及舉重和長凳的常見嫌疑人有很長的承諾期。

But what's really exciting is the great response we've had to VeloCore.

但真正令人興奮的是我們對 VeloCore 的熱烈反響。

As Jim mentioned, like we ran out way too quickly.

正如吉姆所說，我們跑得太快了。

We thought we had put down a pretty bold expectation there, but it was still insufficient.

我們以為我們已經在那裡下了一個相當大膽的期望，但這仍然是不夠的。

So usual suspects in the past, seeing some really, really good initial responses to VeloCore.

過去，看到人們對 VeloCore 的一些非常非常好的初步反應，通常會產生懷疑。

And then in addition to the VeloCore, the SelectTech 552 is kind of the fitness version of toilet paper in the pandemic.

除了 VeloCore 之外，SelectTech 552 也算是疫情期間的健身版衛生紙。

We ended up with a -- we started taking a notify me when list when we went out of stock initially back in March, April.

我們最終得到了——當我們最初在三月、四月缺貨時，我們開始在列表中通知我。

And we collected over 200,000 of those leads.

我們收集了超過 200,000 個潛在客戶。

And since then, as we've gotten supply of the 552s, we kind of went in order on that list and worked our way down.

從那時起，當我們獲得 552 的供應時，我們就按照該清單上的順序進行了工作。

We're almost worked through that entire list now so you'll be seeing that going back on stock -- in stock on the site.

我們現在幾乎已經完成了整個清單，因此您將在網站上看到庫存恢復情況。

As an e-commerce guy, like the one thing I hate more than anything in the world, and our team knows this, is a grayed out button on our website.

作為一名電子商務人員，我最討厭的一件事就是我們網站上的灰色按鈕，我們的團隊也知道這一點。

Because you've generated that demand, you have the fantastic product, you've done all the marketing you need to do and someone can't buy it.

因為你已經產生了這種需求，你擁有了出色的產品，你已經完成了所有需要做的營銷，但有人無法購買它。

But in the case of the 552s, people could buy.

但就 552 而言，人們可以購買。

You just couldn't tell because we felt obligated to serve the customers in the order that they express an interest, and we worked that down, and now we're about ready to go where you can begin to order that.

你只是無法判斷，因為我們覺得有義務按照客戶表達興趣的順序為他們提供服務，我們已經解決了這個問題，現在我們準備好去你可以開始訂購的地方了。

And even then, as we work this list down, people are still willing to wait a couple of months more in addition to what they've already waited.

即便如此，當我們整理這份清單時，人們仍然願意在已經等待的基礎上再等待幾個月。

So that tells you a lot about the product portfolio, and the backlog includes quite a bit of those SelectTechs, whether they be the 552s, the 280s or the 1090s.

因此，這可以告訴您有關產品組合的很多信息，並且積壓的訂單中包括相當多的 SelectTech，無論是 552、280 還是 1090。

Got it.

知道了。

Last one for me.

最後一張給我。

Your retail partners, you added several of them.

您的零售合作夥伴，您添加了其中的幾個。

You talked about them last quarter.

您上個季度談到過它們。

Amazon grows 23%, I think, of revenue this quarter.

我認為亞馬遜本季度的收入增長了 23%。

What's the contribution been like by some of the new retail partners that you announced?

您宣布的一些新零售合作夥伴做出了哪些貢獻？

And would you anticipate sort of further distribution from anything there?

您預計那裡的任何東西都會進一步分發嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

I mean the growth has been fantastic.

我的意思是增長非常驚人。

The demand is obviously there.

需求顯然是存在的。

And it's one of those things -- like everything these days, we wish we had greater supply to satisfy that demand.

這就是其中之一——就像當今的一切一樣，我們希望有更多的供應來滿足這種需求。

And we've had some difficult decisions to make and what supply goes to direct, what supply goes to retail.

我們需要做出一些艱難的決定，哪些供應進入直接供應，哪些供應進入零售。

And then among retailers, how do we serve the accounts the best way in a very strategic way.

然後在零售商中，我們如何以非常戰略性的方式為客戶提供最佳服務。

I mean, obviously, those allocation decisions, if they were completely done on the basis of making the most money, we would sell most things direct and would not allocate to retail partners.

我的意思是，顯然，這些分配決策，如果完全是在賺最多錢的基礎上完成的，我們會直接出售大部分東西，而不會分配給零售合作夥伴。

But retail for us is -- we're committed to it in the long run.

但對我們來說，零售業是——從長遠來看，我們致力於它。

We think people want to touch and feel these products.

我們認為人們想要觸摸和感受這些產品。

We know that our retailers expand our reach and market in different ways and get different customers.

我們知道我們的零售商以不同的方式擴大我們的影響力和市場並吸引不同的客戶。

And we actually want our -- any consumer that wants to buy things to have multiple choices on how they do that.

我們實際上希望任何想要購買東西的消費者在購買方式上有多種選擇。

So our decisions are very strategic and not just numerical, and we're doing the best that we can.

因此，我們的決定非常具有戰略意義，而不僅僅是數字，我們正在盡力而為。

But the great thing is more and more retailers are finding that their customers really want the fitness products.

但令人高興的是，越來越多的零售商發現他們的顧客真正想要健身產品。

I mean pretty much anyone that has anything to do with the home has sort of extended into this category.

我的意思是，幾乎所有與家庭有關的人都屬於這一類別。

And as long-term followers of the company and the category have said -- have seen, for a while, we had really not enough retailers that -- or not enough new retailers that wanted to carry fitness products.

正如該公司和該類別的長期追隨者所說，一段時間以來，我們確實沒有足夠的零售商，或者沒有足夠的新零售商想要銷售健身產品。

And it's been outstanding that these folks have found out that their customers really care about these products and add them.

值得注意的是，這些人發現他們的客戶真正關心這些產品並添加了它們。

So lots of great traction with our existing retailers like DICK's and Amazon and Best Buy.

我們現有的零售商（如 DICK's、亞馬遜和百思買）具有很大的吸引力。

And as the new ones come on, we're doing our best to fulfill those as well.

隨著新產品的出現，我們也在盡最大努力來實現這些目標。

Our next question is from Mark Smith with Lake Street Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Lake Street Capital Markets 的 Mark Smith。

Not sure if you can or will answer this, but just looking for additional insights on VeloCore.

不確定您是否可以或願意回答這個問題，但只是尋找有關 VeloCore 的更多見解。

Can you give us any insight into -- and I know it was a short time period, but the impact on the quarter from VeloCore?

您能否向我們介紹一下 VeloCore 對本季度的影響，我知道這是一個很短的時間段？

We launched it really late in September -- I mean a lot of the sales ended up shipping in late September so impact on the quarter is not material.

我們在九月底推出了它——我的意思是很多銷售最終在九月底發貨，所以對本季度的影響並不重大。

But the number of items that we were able to sell and then they ended up in our back order is really, really encouraging.

但我們能夠售出的商品數量卻最終出現在我們的缺貨訂單中，這真的非常令人鼓舞。

So yes, it exceeded our expectations very much so.

是的，它遠遠超出了我們的預期。

So we're excited about it.

所以我們對此感到興奮。

And really just excited also, like I said, it's not only the product availability, and I think there's no other product like this.

正如我所說，我真的很興奮，這不僅僅是產品的可用性，而且我認為沒有其他產品能像這樣。

But also, the way that our advertising is able to show us in the light that we'd like to be, a more tech-forward brand with an innovative product that does something very differentiating that's not only different but better because it's got benefits for your core and arms.

而且，我們的廣告能夠向我們展示我們想要成為的樣子，一個技術更先進的品牌，其創新產品可以做一些非常與眾不同的事情，不僅不同，而且更好，因為它有以下好處：你的核心和手臂。

So we've been very, very pleased with the traction so far, and we're -- we'd be even more pleased if we had made more of them.

因此，到目前為止，我們對牽引力感到非常非常滿意，如果我們能製作更多這樣的產品，我們會更加高興。

Okay.

好的。

And it's my next question.

這是我的下一個問題。

The advertising, can you talk about, excluding VeloCore, what your advertising costs, how that kind of tracked sequentially?

廣告方面，您能談談，除了 VeloCore 之外，您的廣告費用是多少，如何按順序跟踪？

And then any benefit that you feel like maybe you're getting from the VeloCore advertising that's really helping the rest of the portfolio?

然後，您認為您從 VeloCore 廣告中獲得的任何好處是否真正有助於產品組合的其餘部分？

So I mean, as I mentioned -- and Becky is on the phone so she may have some additional comments on this.

所以我的意思是，正如我提到的，貝基正在打電話，所以她可能對此有一些額外的評論。

But this year, really, what we wanted to do actually to drive traffic to our website to buy any of the products we had available, we just chose the VeloCore as the lead for that.

但今年，我們實際上想做的是增加我們網站的流量以購買我們現有的任何產品，我們只是選擇了 VeloCore 作為主導。

And for the reasons I just mentioned, we thought that was a terrific way to do it.

出於我剛才提到的原因，我們認為這是一個很棒的方法。

And then hopefully, some or most of you have seen these commercials.

希望你們中的一些人或大多數人看過這些廣告。

And hopefully, you agree with me that they really do show us in the right light.

希望你同意我的觀點，他們確實向我們展示了正確的一面。

So then we evaluate our spend, as we always do, on kind of a transactional basis first, how much you spend versus how much you get back.

因此，我們會像往常一樣，首先在交易的基礎上評估我們的支出，即您花費了多少與您獲得了多少回報。

And we have a required rate of return for those transactions.

我們對這些交易有規定的回報率。

And if we're not getting that return, one of the lessons we learned in the last few years is we pull back on that.

如果我們沒有得到回報，過去幾年我們學到的教訓之一就是我們會放棄這一點。

For example, in the second quarter, we didn't have to do any advertising.

比如說第二季度，我們沒有做任何廣告。

And then in the third quarter, when we did this, we thought we wanted to get a good launch.

然後在第三季度，當我們這樣做時，我們認為我們想要獲得良好的發布。

So the good news is we were getting a good return on investment if we just viewed it as a transactional element.

因此，好消息是，如果我們僅將其視為交易要素，我們將獲得良好的投資回報。

But as I also mentioned, unlike I think some of our ads in the past, it was a great ambassador for our brands.

但正如我也提到的，與我認為我們過去的一些廣告不同，它是我們品牌的偉大大使。

It really showed us the way that we would like to be shown.

它確實向我們展示了我們希望展示的方式。

And at least we're trending in the right direction on our brand.

至少我們的品牌正朝著正確的方向發展。

So Becky, I don't know if I stole all your thunder or you have anything to add on top of that.

貝基，我不知道我是否搶了你的風頭，或者你還有什麼要補充的。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

No.

不。

I would just add, for the quarter, we spent about $8 million overall, which was a $2 million increase versus a year ago.

我想補充一點，本季度我們總共花費了約 800 萬美元，比一年前增加了 200 萬美元。

And if you remember, last year, we introduced Max Trainer during Q3.

如果您還記得，去年我們在第三季度推出了 Max Trainer。

And Jim's right.

吉姆是對的。

We really spent behind VeloCore to drive traffic to bowflex.com.

我們確實在 VeloCore 上投入了大量資金來增加 Bowflex.com 的流量。

But then we did use some tactical spending, where we had some significant inventory, and we wanted to bring people, whether it was for strength or some of our other products as well for a transactional level.

但後來我們確實使用了一些戰術支出，我們有一些重要的庫存，我們希望引進人員，無論是為了實力還是我們的一些其他產品以及交易水平。

And that's TV.

這就是電視。

Really, a lot of that's TV.

確實，很多都是電視。

We also did a heck of a lot of digital advertising.

我們還做了很多數字廣告。

And in that regard, we were pushing all the products that were for sale in the portfolio.

在這方面，我們正在推銷產品組合中所有待售的產品。

So while we talk about VeloCore and you can see TV commercials, if you're on any of our social feeds, or you see our online search advertising and things like that, you'll see that we were driving it through the portfolio.

因此，當我們談論 VeloCore 並且您可以看到電視廣告時，如果您在我們的任何社交源上，或者您看到我們的在線搜索廣告及類似內容，您會發現我們正在通過產品組合推動它。

Pretty much whatever we had in stock, right?

幾乎我們有庫存的任何東西，對吧？

You could target that spend to the exact SKUs that you had for the exact amount of time you actually had inventory.

您可以將支出定位到您實際擁有庫存的確切時間段內擁有的確切 SKU。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then last one for me.

然後是我的最後一張。

Just can you just give us a reminder on tariffs on exposure and any kind of exemptions or changes or anything that we've seen here recently?

您能否提醒我們有關風險暴露的關稅以及任何類型的豁免或變更或我們最近在這裡看到的任何內容？

Yes.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

Why don't I let Bill do that?

我為什麼不讓比爾這麼做呢？

Bill is our Head of Supply Chain.

比爾是我們的供應鍊主管。

He's got another fancy title they put on these things.

他們給這些東西起了另一個花哨的頭銜。

But really, his main job is Head of our Supply Chain, and so he's been involved in all of those tariffs.

但實際上，他的主要工作是我們的供應鍊主管，因此他參與了所有這些關稅。

Yes.

是的。

We're currently subject to a 15% incremental tariff on the vast majority of our products that we import, and that is on top of roughly 4.5 points of duty normally.

目前，我們對進口的絕大多數產品徵收 15% 的增量關稅，這是在通常大約 4.5 個關稅點的基礎上徵收的。

So think of it as that sort of burden.

所以把它看作是一種負擔。

Does that -- sorry, go ahead.

是嗎——抱歉，請繼續。

No.

不。

I was just going to say, if you want to look into your crystal ball a little bit, do you guys feel like any change in administration here maybe given some opportunities?

我只是想說，如果你們想稍微了解一下你們的水晶球，你們是否覺得這裡的行政變化可能會帶來一些機會？

I apologize.

我道歉。

I need to correct that.

我需要糾正這一點。

The tariff did reduce to 7.5%.

關稅確實降低至7.5%。

Sorry, I got my numbers mixed up.

抱歉，我把數字弄混了。

So for the third quarter, essentially, if you remember, last year, they came in September 1 at 15%.

因此，對於第三季度來說，如果你還記得的話，去年 9 月 1 日的增長率為 15%。

And then earlier this year, they were reduced to 7.5%.

今年早些時候，這一比例降至 7.5%。

So you're kind of -- for part of the quarter, you're going 15% against 7.5%.

因此，在本季度的部分時間裡，您的增長率將是 15%，而不是 7.5%。

For the full fourth quarter, it will be that 7.5 point difference, right, Bill?

整個第四節，差距將是 7.5 分，對吧，比爾？

Yes.

是的。

So we're comping favorably in Q3.

因此，我們在第三季度的表現相當不錯。

Sorry, for the mistake.

抱歉，犯了錯誤。

Yes.

是的。

Sorry, can you start with your other question?

抱歉，您能從您的其他問題開始嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It was just, if you look in your crystal ball at all here, looking forward with what looks like a new administration coming in, are there opportunities?

只是，如果你看看你的水晶球，期待新政府的到來，是否有機會？

Do you think that maybe we see less tariff exposure as we look at 2021 or maybe later?

您認為 2021 年或更晚的時間我們會看到關稅風險減少嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean all I can say is too early to tell whether relations with China will be better.

我的意思是，我只能說現在判斷與中國的關係是否會更好還為時過早。

We hope that, that will be the case, right?

我們希望情況會如此，對嗎？

But you just don't know.

但你只是不知道。

And then tax policy is completely up in the air, especially if you've got split Congress and executive branches.

然後稅收政策就完全懸而未決了，尤其是在國會和行政部門分裂的情況下。

So just like everyone else, we'll just monitor and react to those things as we've been doing.

因此，就像其他人一樣，我們將像我們一直在做的那樣監控這些事情並做出反應。

Our next question is from George Kelly with ROTH Capital Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自羅斯資本合夥公司的喬治·凱利。

So I have a few for you.

所以我有一些給你。

I'll start with kind of industry size and TAM.

我將從行業規模和 TAM 開始。

I appreciate -- I think you shared -- you've done surveys that -- I forget the exact number, but it was 12% to 30% or something like that of gym goers are probably not going back.

我很欣賞——我想你分享了——你做過調查——我忘記了確切的數字，但它是 12% 到 30% 或類似的東西，健身愛好者可能不會再回去了。

So I guess my question is, how -- compared to pre-COVID -- your kind of the regular customer group pre-COVID, how much bigger will the at-home industry be when this all kind of normalizes a year or 2 years from now?

所以我想我的問題是，與新冠疫情之前相比，你這種新冠疫情之前的常規客戶群，當這一切在一年或兩年後恢復正常時，家庭行業會擴大多少？現在？

How much bigger do you think the at-home industry will be versus pre-COVID levels?

與新冠疫情之前的水平相比，您認為家庭行業的規模將會有多大？

Yes.

是的。

I mean this was a huge issue in our strategic planning, right, because when we started our strategic planning, we thought that the at-home fitness market, if you add it all up, was about $3.6 billion.

我的意思是，這是我們戰略規劃中的一個大問題，對吧，因為當我們開始戰略規劃時，我們認為家庭健身市場如果加起來大約是 36 億美元。

And the -- we thought it would grow at about a little less than 3%.

我們原以為增長率會略低於 3%。

so our plan would have been, in those circumstances, to gain share in a slightly growing market.

因此，在這種情況下，我們的計劃是在一個略有增長的市場中獲得份額。

So then when this whole trend hits, all bets are off.

因此，當整個趨勢襲來時，所有的賭注都會落空。

And for all the reasons that I mentioned in my remarks, you've got a massively growing market.

由於我在發言中提到的所有原因，您擁有一個巨大增長的市場。

So the way we think about it -- and we don't know for sure how big it gets, but you've got a roughly $40 billion gym membership market.

所以我們思考這個問題的方式 - 我們不確定它有多大，但你有一個大約 400 億美元的健身房會員市場。

And you've got that many people that you mentioned, the 12% to 30%, that say they'll never go back.

你提到的很多人，即 12% 到 30%，表示他們永遠不會回去。

Never is a long time.

從來都不是很長一段時間。

So do you believe them or not, I don't know.

所以我不知道你信不信。

But if some of that is true, then you've got a permanent shift from that group at $40 billion to the $3.6 billion.

但如果其中一些是正確的，那麼你就會從 400 億美元的類別永久轉移到 36 億美元的類別。

You just add that on top.

您只需將其添加到頂部即可。

And then for the people who will eventually go back for the reasons that I said in my remarks as well, we just don't think they're going to flood back, right?

對於那些最終會因為我在講話中所說的原因而回去的人，我們只是認為他們不會湧回來，對吧？

They're going to go back when they're safe.

等他們安全了，他們就會回去。

And then they're going to have a new normal.

然後他們就會有一個新的常態。

They're going to balance it differently.

他們將以不同的方式來平衡它。

Then they're going to also buy things for the home just in case.

然後他們還會購買一些家居用品，以防萬一。

So you've got all those things and you add them all up and who knows where they get to.

所以你已經有了所有這些東西，你把它們全部加起來，誰知道它們會去哪裡。

I mean, unfortunately, if we were all public in this space, we could just add up everybody's results and we'd know exactly where we are.

我的意思是，不幸的是，如果我們在這個領域都是公開的，我們只需將每個人的結果相加，我們就會確切地知道我們在哪裡。

But there's just a couple of us that are public so it's our best guess.

但我們只有幾個人是公開的，所以這是我們最好的猜測。

We feel like we're getting more than our fair share.

我們覺得我們得到的比我們應得的更多。

But our estimate maybe for this year, maybe that it went from $3.6 billion to maybe $6 billion, something like that, $6 billion.

但我們今年的估計可能會從 36 億美元增加到 60 億美元，類似的，60 億美元。

But we don't really know.

但我們真的不知道。

It's not an industry that tracks its market share as well as that.

這不是一個跟踪其市場份額的行業。

We -- as we're becoming more and more data-driven, we do our best job to continue to survey that and try to make our best estimate.

隨著我們變得越來越數據驅動，我們盡最大努力繼續調查並嘗試做出最佳估計。

But that's where it kind of looks like.

但這就是它看起來的樣子。

And that's a pretty good opportunity for all of us.

這對我們所有人來說都是一個很好的機會。

If you say that the -- maybe it won't quite double in a year.

如果你這麼說——也許一年內不會翻倍。

There aren't too many industries out there that are coming close to doubling in a year, so that helps.

沒有太多行業能夠在一年內實現翻倍增長，因此這會有所幫助。

And then for the reasons that I said, then it's anybody's guess how much of that is retained and how much of it -- how the growth continues to grow.

然後出於我所說的原因，任何人都可以猜測其中有多少被保留以及其中有多少 - 增長如何繼續增長。

I think we all feel like it would be higher than maybe that $6 billion if we weren't all supply-constrained.

我想我們都覺得，如果我們不受到供應限制的話，這個數字可能會高於 60 億美元。

But as far as I know, we all are.

但據我所知，我們都是。

So that will work itself out as more and more of us are able to fulfill more inventory, and we'll see where we are there.

因此，隨著越來越多的人能夠滿足更多庫存，這將會自然而然地實現，我們將看看我們的處境。

But we do think there's probably a time -- some time in maybe -- it is crystal ball.

但我們確實認為可能有一段時間——也許是某個時間——這就是水晶球。

Maybe sometime in early to mid-2022 that we all kind of see where this thing lands.

也許在 2022 年初到中期的某個時候，我們都會看到這件事的結局。

In the meantime, we're looking at a lot of leading indicators, things like traffic on our website, retail sell-through, things that you would see.

與此同時，我們正在研究許多領先指標，例如我們網站上的流量、零售銷售量等您會看到的東西。

If there is any waning in demand, you'd see it there first.

如果需求有任何減弱，你會首先看到那裡。

And then we would react based on that.

然後我們會據此做出反應。

And there's a whole bunch of other ones, but those would be a couple of the ones that we monitor.

還有很多其他的，但這些是我們監控的其中幾個。

But hopefully, that gives you a sense.

但希望這能給你一種感覺。

There are some hard numbers, but I wouldn't say they're scientific in any major way.

有一些硬性數字，但我不會說它們在任何主要方面都是科學的。

We've done surveys and we've crunched the numbers, and that's what we think.

我們已經進行了調查併計算了數據，這就是我們的想法。

But you can listen to anybody's call, then maybe you'll get a different number.

但你可以接聽任何人的電話，然後也許你會得到一個不同的號碼。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then next question.

然後下一個問題。

And so it sounds like JRNY is -- you're going through a sort of transformation there.

聽起來 JRNY 正在經歷某種轉型。

And it sounds to me -- I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but it's kind of early innings.

對我來說，我的意思是，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但現在還處於早期階段。

And so, I guess, my question is, is live content an important -- as you learn more about what everyone else is offering, do you think live content is important to JRNY at some point?

所以，我想，我的問題是，直播內容重要嗎？當您更多地了解其他人提供的內容時，您認為直播內容在某些時候對 JRNY 重要嗎？

I've got the father of JRNY on the phone here.

我已經接到 JRNY 父親的電話了。

So we'll let Chris...

所以我們會讓克里斯...

George, I'll give my 2 cents.

喬治，我給我 2 美分。

We've talked about this a little bit on previous calls.

我們在之前的電話會議中已經討論過這個問題。

But content has proven to be a fairly big commodity in our space, especially in this time.

但內容已被證明是我們領域中相當大的商品，尤其是在這個時代。

And so one of the things we found out, really, is that people aren't really looking for live content because it actually impacts their schedule, but they are looking for all types of on-demand content.

因此，我們發現的一件事是，人們實際上並不是在尋找直播內容，因為這實際上會影響他們的日程安排，而是他們正在尋找所有類型的點播內容。

And we've been -- and actually architected our product to really be able to respond to the best content the world has to offer.

我們實際上已經設計了我們的產品，以便真正能夠響應世界上提供的最佳內容。

So we're starting to take that -- when you see the JRNY platform, especially in VeloCore and the other products coming out, you'll see that we're going to be continually adding on-demand content because that's 99% of what people are looking to use.

因此，我們開始採取這一點 - 當您看到 JRNY 平台，特別是 VeloCore 和其他產品時，您會發現我們將不斷添加點播內容，因為這佔了 99% 的內容人們正在尋找使用。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And then last question for me about the North Star strategy that you talked about.

最後一個問題是關於你談到的北極星戰略的。

Is M&A an important dynamic of that?

併購是其中的一個重要動力嗎？

And how do you think about M&A right now?

您現在如何看待併購？

Sure.

當然。

Well, when you do -- in my opinion, when you do long-term strategy, you have to be confident that even without a major M&A event, that you have what it takes to make it happen.

好吧，在我看來，當你制定長期戰略時，你必須相信，即使沒有重大併購事件，你也有能力實現它。

And our strategy, when we roll it out, you'll see it's largely organic.

當我們推出我們的策略時，你會發現它很大程度上是有機的。

But especially when you have kind of a short-term sense of urgency like we have here of displaced gym goers and the fact that we are a bit behind where we'd like to be in terms of number of products that have JRNY on it, I mean, all bets are kind of on the table.

但尤其是當你有一種短期的緊迫感時，就像我們這裡的健身愛好者流離失所一樣，而且事實上，我們在帶有 JRNY 的產品數量方面有點落後於我們想要的水平，我的意思是，所有的賭注都在桌面上。

We really do want to look for partnerships that will help us scale in particular and maybe, in some cases, accelerate the content and improve the content in a big way.

我們確實希望尋找能夠幫助我們擴大規模的合作夥伴，也許在某些情況下，可以大幅加速內容並改進內容。

So overall, as we execute, we will be executing on kind of both those levers in inorganic and in organic way.

因此，總的來說，當我們執行時，我們將以無機和有機的方式執行這些槓桿。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節已經結束。

I would like to turn the floor back over to Jim Barr for closing comments.

我想請吉姆·巴爾 (Jim Barr) 發表結束評論。

I'd like to thank everyone for joining our call today and for your continued support of Nautilus.

我要感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議並感謝你們對 Nautilus 的持續支持。

We look forward to providing you with another update on the business in a few months on our fourth quarter earnings call.

我們期待在幾個月後的第四季度財報電話會議上向您提供有關該業務的最新信息。

Please stay safe and healthy.

請保持安全和健康。

Have a great rest of the day, onwards and upwards.

好好休息一天，繼續向上。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。