Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Brown-Forman Corporation fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    女士們,先生們,感謝大家的支持,歡迎參加 Brown-Forman 公司 2025 財年第四季和財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Sue Perram, Vice President, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在,我想將會議交給副總裁兼投資者關係總監 Sue Perram。請繼續。

  • Sue Perram - Director of Investor Relations

    Sue Perram - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I would like to thank each of you for joining us today for Brown-Forman's Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Lawson Whiting, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Leanne Cunningham, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝大家,早安。我要感謝各位今天參加 Brown-Forman 2025 財年季度及財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長 Lawson Whiting 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Leanne Cunningham。

  • This morning's conference call contains forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Numerous risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in these statements. Many of the factors that will determine future results are beyond the company's ability to control or predict.

    今天上午的電話會議包含基於我們目前預期的前瞻性陳述。許多風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與這些聲明中預期或預測的結果有重大差異。許多決定未來結果的因素超出了公司的控製或預測能力。

  • You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, and except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any of these statements, whether due to new information, future events or otherwise.

    您不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述,除非法律要求,否則本公司不承擔更新任何這些陳述的義務,無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

  • This morning, we issued a press release containing our results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, in addition to posting presentation materials that Lawson and Leanne will walk through momentarily. Both the release and the presentation can be found on our website under the section titled Investors, Events and Presentations. In the press release, we have listed a number of the risk factors you should consider in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. Other significant risk factors are described in our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    今天上午,我們發布了一份新聞稿,其中包含我們 2025 年第四季度和財年的業績,此外還發布了 Lawson 和 Leanne 稍後將講解的演示材料。新聞稿和簡報均可在我們網站的「投資者、活動和簡報」部分找到。在新聞稿中,我們列出了您在閱讀我們的前瞻性陳述時應該考慮的一些風險因素。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表報告中描述了其他重大風險因素。

  • During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures, a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and the reasons management believes they provide useful information to investors regarding the company's financial condition and results of operations, are contained in the press release and investor presentation.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標進行了對賬,管理層認為這些指標能夠為投資者提供有關公司財務狀況和經營成果的有用信息,這些信息都包含在新聞稿和投資者介紹中。

  • With that, I would like to turn the call over to Lawson.c

    接下來,我想把電話轉給 Lawson.c

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Sue, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we share our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results.

    謝謝你,蘇,大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們,分享我們第四季和 2025 財年的業績。

  • Throughout fiscal 2025, Brown-Forman the extremely challenging and uncertain operating environment by remaining focused on the long term, leveraging our strengths and executing our business strategies with a focus on improving our route to consumer in several markets, evolving our workforce to simplify and streamline our organization, allowing us to become more agile and efficient and growing our portfolio of brands through sponsorships, media campaigns and innovation.

    在整個 2025 財年,Brown-Forman 將透過長期關注、利用我們的優勢和執行我們的業務策略來應對極具挑戰性和不確定性的營運環境,重點是改善我們在多個市場的消費者管道,發展我們的員工隊伍以簡化和精簡我們的組織,使我們變得更加靈活和高效,並透過贊助、媒體活動和創新來擴大我們的品牌組合。

  • That said, the fiscal year unfolded largely as we expected. This reflects the continued path to normalization, following the significant multiyear disruption related to our supply chain, 2-plus years of exceptionally high demand and the impact of higher inflation and interest rates on the consumer and trade over the last two years.

    儘管如此,本財年的進展基本上符合我們的預期。這反映了在經歷了與我們的供應鏈相關的多年嚴重中斷、兩年多的異常高需求以及過去兩年通膨和利率上升對消費者和貿易的影響之後,我們將繼續走向正常化。

  • For context, in fiscal 2025, our shipments closely matched our depletions for the first time in six years. Our reported net sales decreased 5% in fiscal '25, while organic net sales grew 1% after adjusting for the divestitures of Finlandia and Sonoma-Cutrer in the prior fiscal year, the negative effect of foreign exchange and the business model change for Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails. Putting our fiscal '25 results into the longer-term view, our five year organic net sales compound annual growth rate was 6%, reflective of our historic trends.

    就背景而言,在 2025 財年,我們的出貨量六年來首次與消耗量接近。我們報告的 25 財年淨銷售額下降了 5%,但在調整了上一財年芬蘭和索諾瑪-卡特勒的資產剝離、外匯的負面影響以及傑克丹尼鄉村雞尾酒的商業模式變化後,有機淨銷售額增長了 1%。從長遠角度來看,我們的 25 財年業績五年有機淨銷售額複合年增長率為 6%,反映了我們的歷史趨勢。

  • Now let me share some perspectives on the fiscal 2025 results through our integrated business strategy. I'll start with the performance of our portfolio and provide a few updates on our people, then Leanne will share more about our geographic performance and our investments, along with other financial highlights and our fiscal '26 outlook.

    現在,讓我透過我們的綜合業務策略分享一些關於 2025 財年業績的觀點。我將從我們的投資組合的表現開始,並提供一些有關我們員工的最新信息,然後 Leanne 將分享更多有關我們的地理表現和投資以及其他財務亮點和我們的 26 財年展望。

  • From a brand perspective, Woodford Reserve was the largest driver of organic net sales growth. And if you look at the Nielsen takeaway trends for the top 20 spirits brands by value for the 52 weeks ending in April, Woodford Reserve was one of only three brands growing. This reflects the strength of Woodford Reserve, but also the exceptionally challenging environment our industry is navigating right now.

    從品牌角度來看,Woodford Reserve 是有機淨銷售額成長的最大推動力。如果你看一下尼爾森截至 4 月的 52 週內按價值排名前 20 位的烈酒品牌的趨勢,你會發現 Woodford Reserve 是僅有的三個成長的品牌之一。這不僅體現了伍德福德儲備的實力,也體現了我們產業目前面臨的極具挑戰性的環境。

  • An increase in used barrel sales was the second largest contributor to organic net sales in fiscal '25, followed by growth from New Mix and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. Woodford Reserve delivered organic net sales growth of 8%, driven by higher volume as well as positive price mix, with Woodford Reserve Distiller Select once again leading the growth. Woodford Reserve is also being discovered internationally with very strong performance in markets such as Japan and Turkey as we continue to position this brand for global growth.

    二手桶銷量的成長是 25 財年有機淨銷售額的第二大貢獻者,其次是 New Mix 和傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的成長。伍德福德珍藏 (Woodford Reserve) 的有機淨銷售額增長了 8%,這得益於銷量增加以及積極的價格組合,其中伍德福德珍藏精選蒸餾酒 (Woodford Reserve Distiller Select) 再次引領了增長。隨著我們繼續將 Woodford Reserve 定位為全球成長品牌,該品牌在國際上也越來越受到青睞,在日本和土耳其等市場表現非常強勁。

  • Last month, the Kentucky Derby was held in our hometown of Louisville, and Woodford Reserve was once again the presenting sponsor. The 151 Run for the Roses was the most watched Kentucky Derby since 1989, with over 22 million household viewers generating more than 4 billion earned media impressions for the brand. This event creates numerous opportunities for collaborations across spirits, sports and fashion, enabling Woodford Reserve to engage with current consumers and make new fans of the brand.

    上個月,肯塔基賽馬會在我們的家鄉路易斯維爾舉行,而伍德福德儲備再次成為主贊助商。第 151 屆玫瑰賽馬會是自 1989 年以來收視率最高的肯塔基賽馬會,共有超過 2,200 萬個家庭觀眾觀看,為該品牌創造了超過 40 億的媒體曝光量。這項活動為烈酒、運動和時尚領域的合作創造了眾多機會,使 Woodford Reserve 能夠與現有消費者互動並吸引新的品牌粉絲。

  • Innovation and premiumization also contributed to the brand's growth, with the success of Woodford Reserve's largest product launch Double Double Oaked, along with continued double-digit growth of Woodford Reserve Double Oaked. These craft and luxury expressions reflect our strategic approach to innovation, which enable us to capitalize on growth opportunities in the US whiskey category.

    創新和高端化也促進了品牌的成長,Woodford Reserve 最大的產品系列 Double Double Oaked 取得了成功,同時 Woodford Reserve Double Oaked 繼續保持兩位數的成長。這些工藝和奢華的表達反映了我們的創新策略方針,使我們能夠利用美國威士忌類別的成長機會。

  • New Mix continued its impressive growth in fiscal '25, leveraging innovation to capitalize on consumer trends of flavor and convenience. The brand had another year of double-digit organic net sales growth, surpassing 11 million 9-liter cases, and continuing to gain market share in Mexico. In addition, I'm excited to share that New Mix will launch two flavors: New Mix Paloma, the New Mix Cantarito, RTD in key US states later this summer. With 58% of the US.

    New Mix 在 25 財年繼續保持令人矚目的成長勢頭,利用創新來滿足消費者對口味和便利性的追求。該品牌又一年實現了兩位數的有機淨銷售額成長,銷量超過 1,100 萬箱 9 公升裝,並繼續在墨西哥獲得市場份額。此外,我很高興地告訴大家,New Mix 將於今年夏天晚些時候在美國主要州推出兩種口味:New Mix Paloma、New Mix Cantarito 和 RTD。占美國總人口的 58%。

  • Hispanic population originating from Mexico, this launch offers consumers the opportunity to purchase a brand that is currently only available in Mexico, and reflects the authenticity, tradition and culinary richness of the country.

    西班牙裔人口源自墨西哥,此次推出的產品為消費者提供了購買目前僅在墨西哥銷售的品牌的機會,並體現了該國的真實性、傳統和烹飪的豐富性。

  • In fiscal 2025, organic net sales for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey increased 1%. As we have shared throughout this year, we're continuing to engage a new generation of legal drinking age consumers, while remaining intently focused on retaining our core consumers through our McLaren Formula one and music sponsorships, an evolved on-premise strategy and a new media campaign.

    2025 財年,傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的有機淨銷售額成長了 1%。正如我們今年全年所分享的那樣,我們將繼續吸引新一代法定飲酒年齡的消費者,同時繼續專注於透過麥克拉倫一級方程式賽車和音樂贊助、不斷發展的內部策略和新媒體活動來留住我們的核心消費者。

  • Jack's connection to Formula 1 and music were on full display in Jack's Garage, which is a bold brand platform that unites race and whiskey fans through the power of music. The momentum of this experience continues to build with the most recent Jack's Garage in Miami, resulting in more social impressions than all of the US Jack's Garage events held in calendar 2024 combined.

    傑克與一級方程式賽車和音樂的聯繫在傑克車庫中得到了充分展示,這是一個大膽的品牌平台,透過音樂的力量將賽車和威士忌愛好者團結在一起。隨著最近在邁阿密舉辦的 Jack's Garage 活動,這種體驗的勢頭持續增強,其產生的社會影響力比 2024 年美國舉辦的所有 Jack's Garage 活動的總和還要大。

  • Also raising awareness, the first members of the Jack Pack, the team of Jack Daniel's brand ambassadors, are now in place in key cities such as New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles. This team is focused on growing our influence in the on-premise channel through relationship building, targeted education and brand advocacy.

    此外,為了提高知名度,傑克丹尼品牌大使團隊 Jack Pack 的首批成員現已分佈在紐約、舊金山和洛杉磯等主要城市。該團隊致力於透過建立關係、有針對性的教育和品牌宣傳來擴大我們在內部管道的影響力。

  • I'm also proud to share that our new global campaign for Jack Daniel's entitled That's What Makes Jack, Jack launched a few weeks ago in markets around the world. This campaign is bold, iconic and unmistakably Jack. It emphasizes the enduring craftsmanship and authenticity that distinguishes Jack Daniel's from all other whiskeys, stemming from our roots in Lynchburg, Tennessee, our signature charcoal mellowing process and the unwavering standards set by Mr. Jack himself. Reinforcing Jack Daniel's status as a renowned and iconic brand, we believe the creative work will strengthen our position as a symbol of independents for current consumers and a new generation.

    我還很自豪地告訴大家,幾週前我們為傑克丹尼 (Jack Daniel's) 在全球市場推出了名為“這就是傑克的魅力”的全新全球宣傳活動。這次活動大膽、標誌性,毫無疑問是傑克的風格。它強調了傑克丹尼與所有其他威士忌的區別——持久的工藝和真實性,源於我們在田納西州林奇堡的根基、我們標誌性的木炭醇化工藝以及傑克先生本人設定的堅定標準。我們相信,透過加強傑克丹尼作為知名和標誌性品牌的地位,創意工作將加強我們作為當前消費者和新一代獨立人士的象徵地位。

  • Innovation also elevates Jack Daniel's relevance to existing consumers while extending the brand's appeal to new consumers and occasions as evidenced by the growth and success of the launches of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey in 2011, Tennessee Fire in 2014 and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple in 2019.

    創新也提升了傑克丹尼與現有消費者的相關性,同時擴大了品牌對新消費者和新場合的吸引力,正如 2011 年推出的傑克丹尼田納西蜂蜜、2014 年推出的田納西火和 2019 年推出的傑克丹尼田納西蘋果的增長和成功所證明的那樣。

  • Today, I'm excited to announce the launch of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry later this summer. Blackberry is a globally recognized well-established flavor trend and naturally complements the flavor of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. In consumer testing, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry had high consumer appeal resonating with a broad audience.

    今天,我很高興地宣布傑克丹尼田納西黑莓將於今年夏天晚些時候上市。黑莓是全球公認的成熟口味潮流,與傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的口味自然互補。在消費者測試中,傑克丹尼田納西黑莓具有很高的消費者吸引力,引起了廣泛受眾的共鳴。

  • We've been strategic and purposeful with our innovation, using consumer insights and trends to give consumers the opportunity to explore and discover within the Jack Daniel's family. I look forward to sharing more about the launch of this exciting new innovation in the months ahead.

    我們的創新始終具有策略性和目的性,利用消費者洞察和趨勢,讓消費者有機會探索和發現傑克丹尼系列產品。我期待在未來幾個月分享更多有關這項令人興奮的新創新的發布資訊。

  • Before moving to our people, I'll share some comments on a few other brands that had an impact on the company's top line performance. Diplomaico delivered very strong double-digit organic net sales growth, led by France and Germany, along with the travel retail channel.

    在談到我們的員工之前,我想先分享一些對公司營收業績產生影響的其他品牌的評論。Diplomaico 實現了非常強勁的兩位數有機淨銷售額成長,其中法國和德國以及旅遊零售通路的推動。

  • Within the super premium and above price tier, Diplomaico is the world's third largest run by value globally sold in over 100 countries, and is known for its rich heritage and rum making tradition. In fiscal '25, we benefited from having a full year of growth from this brand, and we continue to expect Diplomatico to be a meaningful growth contributor over the long term.

    在超高端及以上價位段,Diplomaico 是全球第三大蘭姆酒品牌,銷往全球 100 多個國家,並以其豐富的文化遺產和蘭姆酒釀造傳統而聞名。在 25 財年,我們受益於品牌全年的成長,我們繼續期待 Diplomatico 能夠成為長期有意義的成長貢獻者。

  • Organic net sales for Gin Mare grew 1%, with growth from Spain, Germany and France, partially offset by a decline in Italy, the brand's largest market, as we transition to our own distribution. In the fourth quarter, we recognized a $47 million noncash impairment charge for the Gin Mare brand name and reduced Gin Mare's contingent consideration liability by $43 million.

    Gin Mare 的有機淨銷售額成長了 1%,其中西班牙、德國和法國市場的成長部分被該品牌最大市場義大利的下滑所抵消,因為我們正在轉向自己的分銷管道。在第四季度,我們確認了 Gin Mare 品牌 4,700 萬美元的非現金減損費用,並將 Gin Mare 的或有對價負債減少了 4,300 萬美元。

  • The impairment and liability reduction reflect a decline in our financial forecast assumptions due to the more challenging macroeconomic environment in Europe, where the brand has a strong presence. While the brand had a slower start than we had planned, we continue to expect that Gin Mare will contribute long-term growth to our portfolio of brands.

    減損和負債的減少反映了我們的財務預測假設的下降,這是由於該品牌在具有強大影響力的歐洲面臨的宏觀經濟環境更具挑戰性。雖然品牌的起步比我們計劃的要慢,但我們仍然預計 Gin Mare 將為我們的品牌組合帶來長期成長。

  • Korbel and our tequila brands partially offset our organic net sales growth in fiscal '25. As we shared a few weeks ago, Brown-Forman and Korbel Champagne Cellars will end our sales, marketing and distribution relationship at the end of the month. We appreciate the years of partnership with Korbel as well as the Brown-Forman employees who played a role in building Korbel into the respected and well-loved brand it is today.

    Korbel 和我們的龍舌蘭酒品牌部分抵消了我們 25 財年的有機淨銷售額成長。正如我們幾週前所分享的,Brown-Forman 和 Korbel Champagne Cellars 將於本月底終止我們的銷售、行銷和分銷關係。我們感謝多年來與 Korbel 的合作,也感謝 Brown-Forman 員工為將 Korbel 打造成為如今受人尊敬和喜愛的品牌所做的貢獻。

  • To our tequila portfolio, organic net sales for El Jimador and Herradura declined double-digits, as the environment for the tequila category in the US remain competitive, and Mexico's economy continue to face a challenging macro environment, though their performance improved sequentially each quarter. We believe consumers desire brands with heritage, authenticity and craftsmanship, so we remain focused on sharing and celebrating Herradura's 155-year history, including its heritage as the world's first reposado, which is the fastest-growing expression within the tequila category.

    對於我們的龍舌蘭酒產品組合而言,El Jimador 和 Herradura 的有機淨銷售額下降了兩位數,因為美國龍舌蘭酒類別的環境仍然具有競爭力,而墨西哥的經濟繼續面臨充滿挑戰的宏觀環境,儘管他們的業績每個季度都環比改善。我們相信消費者渴望擁有傳統、真實性和工藝的品牌,因此我們始終專注於分享和慶祝 Herradura 155 年的歷史,包括其作為世界上第一款 reposado 的傳統,這是龍舌蘭酒類別中增長最快的酒種。

  • We also continue to innovate with the successful launch of Herradura Cristal in Mexico, which builds upon the accelerating Cristalino trend. El Jimador has also launched a Cristalino expression in the US El Jimador Cristalino was priced above the parent brand and is the first expression within the family of brands to be bottled in its new premium packaging, further supporting the brand's premiumization journey.

    我們也不斷創新,在墨西哥成功推出 Herradura Cristal,這延續了 Cristalino 潮流的加速發展。El Jimador 還在美國推出了 Cristalino 啤酒。 El Jimador Cristalino 的定價高於母品牌,並且是該品牌系列中第一款採用全新高級包裝的啤酒,進一步支持了該品牌的高端化進程。

  • IWSR projects the tequila category will reach almost $20 billion in retail value in the next five years, with almost half the growth coming from outside the US and Mexico. We continue to ensure that El Jimador and Herradura are well positioned to capitalize on the growth.

    IWSR 預計,未來五年龍舌蘭酒的零售額將達到近 200 億美元,其中近一半的成長來自美國和墨西哥以外的地區。我們將繼續確保 El Jimador 和 Herradura 能夠充分利用這一成長機會。

  • Before turning the call over to Leanne, I want to take a moment to provide an update on our people. In fiscal '25, we announced and implemented a number of strategic initiatives, which included a workforce reduction and Cooperage closing. Collectively, these initiatives should deliver approximately $70 million to $80 million in annualized savings.

    在將電話轉給 Leanne 之前,我想花點時間介紹我們的人員的最新情況。在 2025 財年,我們宣布並實施了一系列策略性舉措,其中包括裁員和關閉製桶廠。總的來說,這些措施每年可節省約 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元。

  • As a result, we incurred $63 million in aggregate charges, including the separate early retirement benefit offered to qualifying US employees.

    結果,我們總共產生了 6,300 萬美元的費用,其中包括向符合資格的美國員工提供的單獨提前退休福利。

  • Throughout our history, Brown-Forman has continually evolved and adapted over the decades, and we believe these strategic initiatives will ensure the company continues to endure for generations to come. I want to thank all of our employees for their resilience as well as their continued commitment to our brands, our business and most importantly, to each other.

    縱觀我們的歷史,Brown-Forman 在過去的幾十年中不斷發展和適應,我們相信這些策略舉措將確保公司在未來幾代人繼續蓬勃發展。我要感謝我們所有員工的堅韌以及他們對我們的品牌、我們的業務以及最重要的是彼此的持續承諾。

  • In summary, fiscal 2025 was a year unlike any other that I've seen in the past three decades. I'm often reminded that this great company has existed for more than 1.5 century and has faced many uncertainties and unknowns. During these times, we remain focused on the long term and leverage our greatest strengths, our people and our brands. This has enabled us to deliver positive organic net sales and operating income growth in fiscal '25, which we believe is at the top of our industry.

    總而言之,2025 財年是我過去三十年所見過的最不尋常的一年。我經常想起,這家偉大的公司已經存在了一個半世紀,面臨著許多不確定性和未知數。在此期間,我們始終著眼於長遠發展,並充分利用我們最大的優勢、我們的員工和我們的品牌。這使得我們在 25 財年實現了正有機淨銷售額和營業收入成長,我們相信這處於行業領先地位。

  • As Leanne will share, we're entering fiscal '26 with a healthy mix of realism and optimism as we anticipate that the year ahead will continue to be challenging. Despite headwinds, we believe that we have tremendous opportunities for long-term growth. And while we cannot control the external environment, we will focus on what is within our control and on the strategic initiatives that will unlock growth for our business, our brands and our people.

    正如 Leanne 所說,我們以現實主義和樂觀主義的健康態度進入 26 財年,因為我們預計未來的一年將繼續充滿挑戰。儘管面臨阻力,我們仍然相信我們擁有巨大的長期成長機會。雖然我們無法控制外部環境,但我們會專注於我們能夠控制的事情,以及能夠為我們的業務、品牌和員工帶來成長的策略舉措。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Leanne, and she'll provide more details on our fiscal '25 results.

    說完這些,我將把電話轉給 Leanne,她將提供有關我們 25 財年業績的更多詳細資訊。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Lawson, and good morning, everyone. As Lawson mentioned, I will provide additional details on the other two pillars of our corporate strategy, geographies and investment, along with other financial highlights and our fiscal 2026 outlook.

    謝謝你,勞森,大家早安。正如勞森所提到的,我將提供有關我們公司戰略的另外兩大支柱、地域和投資的更多詳細信息,以及其他財務亮點和我們對 2026 財年的展望。

  • From a geographic perspective, we shared with you previously that we anticipated a return to growth for organic net sales and organic operating income in fiscal 2025 driven by gains in international markets, along with the benefit of normalizing distributor inventory trends on a year-over-year basis. Today, the results we are sharing with you reflect those expectations.

    從地理角度來看,我們之前曾與大家分享過,我們預計在國際市場成長的推動下,以及經銷商庫存趨勢同比正常化的好處下,2025 財年的有機淨銷售額和有機營業收入將恢復成長。今天,我們與大家分享的結果反映了這些期望。

  • Our emerging international markets continued to lead our growth and collectively delivered a 9% organic net sales increase in fiscal 2025. This growth was led by continued strong double-digit growth in Turkey and Brazil led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. The sustained growth of the premium whiskey category positively impacted our business in these markets, along with Brazil, which benefited from our geographic expansion strategy and the launch of an additional package size for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey.

    我們的新興國際市場繼續引領我們的成長,並在 2025 財年實現了 9% 的有機淨銷售額成長。這一成長主要得益於傑克丹尼田納西威士忌在土耳其和巴西市場持續強勁的兩位數成長。高端威士忌品類的持續成長對我們在這些市場以及巴西的業務產生了積極影響,這得益於我們的地域擴張策略以及傑克丹尼田納西威士忌推出的額外包裝尺寸。

  • In Mexico, organic net sales grew 4% despite the challenging economic environment. While discretionary spending has been negatively impacted and consumers are trading down, our RTDs and the Jack Daniel's family of brands are outperforming competitors and gaining market share.

    在墨西哥,儘管經濟環境充滿挑戰,有機淨銷售額仍成長了 4%。儘管可自由支配的開支受到了負面影響,消費者的消費水平也在下降,但我們的即飲產品和傑克丹尼系列品牌的表現優於競爭對手,並且市場份額不斷擴大。

  • As Lawson mentioned, New Mix continued to deliver double-digit organic net sales growth, driven by increased distribution as well as a steady pricing and promotional strategy. Jack Daniel's RTDs, which include Jack & Coke, outperformed the RTD category and delivered high single-digit organic net sales growth.

    正如勞森所提到的,在分銷增加以及穩定的定價和促銷策略的推動下,New Mix 繼續實現兩位數的有機淨銷售成長。傑克丹尼的即飲飲料(包括傑克可樂)表現優於即飲飲料類別,並實現了高個位數的有機淨銷售額增長。

  • As I mentioned last quarter, we are committed to the development and growth of our portfolio of brands in Mexico and further leveraged our own distribution capabilities. In fiscal 2025, we began the distribution of brands within the William Grant & Sons portfolio, including Glenfiddich, Hendrick's, Valdini and Monkey Shoulder. This distribution opportunity not only provided incremental organic net sales, we also believe this complementary portfolio provides us additional strength to achieve greater development of the combined portfolio, particularly in the on-trade and the super premium segment.

    正如我在上個季度所提到的,我們致力於在墨西哥發展和壯大我們的品牌組合,並進一步利用我們自己的分銷能力。在 2025 財年,我們開始發行 William Grant & Sons 旗下品牌,包括 Glenfiddich、Hendrick's、Valdini 和 Monkey Shoulder。此次分銷機會不僅提供了增量有機淨銷售額,我們還相信,這種互補的產品組合為我們提供了額外的力量,以實現合併產品組合的更大發展,特別是在現場消費和超高端領域。

  • Organic net sales in the travel retail channel declined by 5% in fiscal 2025. Challenging macroeconomics in many markets in Asia more than offset the introduction of new brands and growth in global accounts. Growth of Diplomaico and Woodford Reserve led by the launch of Double Double Oaked were more than offset by the decline of our super premium American whiskeys, such as our exclusive global travel retail offerings, Jack Daniel's Bottled in Bond and Jack Daniel's American Single Malt, which compared against its launch in fiscal 2024.

    2025財年旅遊零售通路的有機淨銷售額下降了5%。亞洲許多市場面臨的宏觀經濟挑戰遠遠抵消了新品牌的推出和全球帳戶的成長。由於 Double Double Oaked 的推出,Diplomaico 和 Woodford Reserve 的成長被我們超高端美國威士忌的下滑所抵消,例如我們獨家的全球旅遊零售產品 Jack Daniel's Bottled in Bond 和 Jack Daniel's American Single Malt,與 2024 財年推出的產品相比有所下降。

  • Our developed international markets an organic net sales decline of 3% in fiscal 2025 as growth in Japan was more than offset by declines in Italy, South Korea and the United Kingdom. In Japan, organic net sales growth was driven by our route-to-consumer change to own distribution on April 1, 2024. The transition to own distribution enabled us to execute our pricing strategy and provided more clarity on customer and consumer performance.

    我們發達的國際市場在 2025 財年的有機淨銷售額下降了 3%,因為日本的成長被義大利、韓國和英國的下降所抵消。在日本,有機淨銷售額的成長得益於我們於 2024 年 4 月 1 日將銷售管道從消費者轉向自有分銷。向自主分銷的轉變使我們能夠執行我們的定價策略,並更清楚地了解客戶和消費者的表現。

  • Similar to Mexico, we are also leveraging our distribution capabilities with the distribution of the William Grant & Sons portfolio of brands such as Glenfiddich, Monkey Shoulder, Grant and Hendricks.

    與墨西哥類似,我們也利用我們的分銷能力來分銷 William Grant & Sons 旗下的品牌,例如 Glenfiddich、Monkey Shoulder、Grant 和 Hendricks。

  • By bringing together our iconic spirits portfolio, we are scaling our business in Japan and reinforcing our position with local customers, which further strengthens our position and underscores our commitment to long-term growth and innovation in the third largest whiskey market in the world.

    透過整合我們標誌性的烈酒組合,我們正在擴大在日本的業務並鞏固我們在當地客戶中的地位,這進一步加強了我們的地位並強調了我們對世界第三大威士忌市場長期成長和創新的承諾。

  • We are excited that we launched our own distribution in Italy on May 1, 2025, signifying our dedication to unlocking the full potential of the dynamic Italian spirits market. While organic net sales declined as we prepared for the transition to our own distribution, takeaway trends improved and we are gaining market share. We believe owning our distribution will enable us to deepen our collaboration with our trade partners, accelerate growth for key super premium brands like Diplomatico Rum and Gin Mare and further strengthen the presence of our iconic American whiskey portfolio, led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands.

    我們很高興於 2025 年 5 月 1 日在義大利推出了自己的分銷管道,這標誌著我們致力於充分釋放充滿活力的義大利烈酒市場的潛力。雖然在我們準備向自己的分銷管道轉型時,有機淨銷售額有所下降,但外送趨勢有所改善,我們的市佔率也不斷增加。我們相信,擁有自己的分銷管道將使我們能夠深化與貿易夥伴的合作,加速 Diplomatico Rum 和 Gin Mare 等主要超高端品牌的增長,並進一步加強以傑克丹尼 (Jack Daniel) 品牌系列為首的標誌性美國威士忌產品組合的影響力。

  • In South Korea, the premium whiskey category continued to grow, leading to an increase in competitive activity, while Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey faced a difficult comparison and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple compared against its launch in the prior year period.

    在韓國,高檔威士忌類別持續成長,導致競爭加劇,而傑克丹尼田納西威士忌面臨著難以比較的局面,傑克丹尼田納西蘋果與去年同期推出的威士忌相比也存在較大差距。

  • Consumer confidence in the United Kingdom was negatively impacted by the macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly related to tariffs, resulting in a 6% decline in organic net sales. Double-digit organic net sales growth of Diplomatico and Gentleman Jack was more than offset by the decline of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, although the brand grew in value and gained share in the off-premise takeaway trends.

    英國消費者信心受到宏觀經濟和地緣政治不確定性(尤其是關稅相關因素)的負面影響,導致有機淨銷售額下降 6%。儘管傑克丹尼田納西威士忌品牌的價值有所增長,並且在場外銷售趨勢中佔有一定份額,但其品牌淨銷售額的兩位數增長被其銷量的下滑所抵消。

  • Turning to the United States. Organic net sales decreased 2%, with growth from Woodford Reserve, Old Forester and Jack Daniel's RTDs, more than offset by declines from Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and Korbel California Champagne.

    轉向美國。有機淨銷售額下降 2%,其中 Woodford Reserve、Old Forester 和 Jack Daniel's RTD 銷售額增長,但被 Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey 和 Korbel California Champagne 銷售額下降所抵消。

  • From a takeaway perspective, three-month rolling value trends for total distilled spirits are down approximately 3%, reflecting the continued macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, negatively impacting consumer confidence and spending. The slowdown is widespread across categories and price tiers, yet the higher-priced tiers are continuing to gain market share, particularly in the $40 and above tier within the US whiskey category.

    從總體來看,蒸餾酒總量的三個月滾動價值趨勢下降了約 3%,反映了持續的宏觀經濟和地緣政治不確定性,對消費者信心和支出產生了負面影響。各類別和價格層級的威士忌銷售普遍放緩,但高價位威士忌的市場份額仍在繼續增長,尤其是美國威士忌類別中 40 美元及以上的價格層級。

  • Lawson highlighted the growth drivers of Woodford Reserve. So I will share a few comments on Old Forester and the Jack Daniel's RTDs, along with Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and Korbel. Despite the challenging macroeconomic conditions, our founding brand, Old Forester, continues to resonate with consumers, with high-quality and great-tasting bourbon and 155 years of history and storytelling.

    勞森強調了伍德福德儲備的成長動力。因此,我將分享一些關於 Old Forester 和 Jack Daniel's RTD 以及 Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey 和 Korbel 的評論。儘管宏觀經濟形勢嚴峻,我們的創始品牌 Old Forester 憑藉其高品質、口感絕佳的波本威士忌以及 155 年的歷史和故事,繼續引起消費者的共鳴。

  • Old Forester delivered high single-digit organic net sales growth, led by strong performance of the super premium expressions, particularly our single barrel selection offering, which is bottled at barrel string. Jack Daniel's RTD delivered double-digit organic net sales growth in fiscal 2025, led by the growth of Jack & Coke and Jack & Coke Zero.

    Old Forester 實現了高個位數有機淨銷售額成長,這主要得益於超高端產品的強勁表現,尤其是我們的單桶精選產品(按桶裝瓶)。傑克丹尼 RTD 在 2025 財年實現了兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長,其中傑克可樂和傑克零度可樂的增長最為顯著。

  • Flavor and pack innovation are important in the RTD category. To provide consumers with the flavor and pack innovations they desire, the limited time offering of Jack & Coke Cherry and the Jack & Coke variety pack featuring Jack & Coke, Jack & Coke Cherry and Jack & Coke vanilla was launched in March, in time for the seasonally stronger spring and summer months and is off to a good start.

    口味和包裝創新對於 RTD 類別來說非常重要。為了向消費者提供他們想要的口味和包裝創新,限時供應的傑克可樂櫻桃味和傑克可樂多種包裝(包括傑克可樂、傑克可樂櫻桃味和傑克可樂香草味)於 3 月份推出,正好趕上季節性較強的春夏季節,並且取得了良好的開端。

  • While trends in the second half were stronger than the first half, organic net sales declined for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. As Lawson mentioned, we have taken action and are continuing to engage with current and new consumers through sponsorships, on-premise engagement, our new media campaign and innovation to accelerate our trends.

    儘管下半年的趨勢強於上半年,但傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的有機淨銷售額卻下降了。正如勞森所提到的,我們已經採取行動,並將繼續透過贊助、現場參與、新媒體活動和創新來吸引現有和新消費者,以加速我們的趨勢。

  • We also continue to make purposeful efforts to highlight our whiskey-making craftsmanship and credentials through innovation and specialty launches. The latest release in the H series, Jack Daniel's 14-year-old Tennessee Whiskey, joined Jack Daniel's 10-year-old and 12-year-old Tennessee Whiskey in fiscal 2025. 14 year is the oldest age dated whiskey from the Jack Daniel's distillery and over a century, and sold out at the Jack Daniel's White Rabbit Bottle Shop in less than three hours. The success of these products created a halo for the parent brand, with the launch generating 720 million earned media impressions benefiting the entire Jack Daniel's family of brands.

    我們也將繼續透過創新和特色產品發布,努力凸顯我們的威士忌釀造工藝和資格。H 系列的最新產品是傑克丹尼 14 年田納西威士忌,與傑克丹尼 10 年和 12 年田納西威士忌一樣,將於 2025 財年上市。 14 年是傑克丹尼酒廠陳年時間最長的威士忌,已有超過一個世紀的歷史,在傑克丹尼白兔酒品店不到三個小時就銷售一空。這些產品的成功為母品牌帶來了光環,產品發布後產生了 7.2 億次媒體曝光,使整個傑克丹尼品牌系列受益。

  • And finally, Korbel organic net sales declined in fiscal 2025 in a difficult environment as the majority of the brands in the sparkling category experienced decreased sales.

    最後,由於氣泡酒類別中大多數品牌的銷售額都出現下滑,Korbel 2025 財年的有機淨銷售額在艱難的環境下出現下滑。

  • Turning to the distributor inventory levels in the US The environment remains unchanged, with distributors continuing to target the low end of their normal range. As you may recall, in our last earnings call, we shared the news of our distributor transition in California, and that it was part of a broader review of our route to market across the US to ensure our brands are well positioned to win in the highly competitive marketplace.

    轉向美國分銷商的庫存水平,環境保持不變,分銷商繼續以正常範圍的低端為目標。您可能還記得,在我們上次的收益電話會議上,我們分享了加州分銷商轉型的消息,這是我們對美國市場路線進行更廣泛審查的一部分,以確保我們的品牌在競爭激烈的市場中佔據有利地位。

  • We have now completed our review, and we announced last week that we have named new distributors for 13 additional markets, a transition that will involve seven new distributor partners beginning August 1, 2025. This is the company's first significant change to our US route-to-consumer landscape in more than 60 years. These carefully considered decisions underscore our enduring commitment to ensure our brands have the dedication, focus, investment and route-to-market capabilities needed to succeed in the increasingly dynamic US beverage alcohol industry.

    我們現已完成審查,並在上周宣布已為另外 13 個市場任命了新的經銷商,這項過渡將從 2025 年 8 月 1 日開始涉及 7 個新的經銷商合作夥伴。這是該公司 60 多年來首次對美國消費者通路格局做出重大改變。這些經過深思熟慮的決定強調了我們持久的承諾,確保我們的品牌擁有在日益活躍的美國酒精飲料行業取得成功所需的奉獻精神、專注力、投資和市場管道能力。

  • Just as one example, as a result of these changes, we will gain incremental, dedicated head count focused on our brands. While these transitions will likely cause some disruption and volatility in the first half of this fiscal year, we believe they will unlock future growth. These decisions were taken with great thought and care, and we believe they will bring tremendous opportunity for growth in the years and decades to come.

    舉個例子,由於這些變化,我們將獲得越來越多的、專注於我們品牌的專門員工。雖然這些轉變可能會在本財年上半年造成一些混亂和波動,但我們相信它們將釋放未來的成長潛力。這些決定是經過深思熟慮和謹慎做出的,我們相信它們將為未來幾年和幾十年的成長帶來巨大的機會。

  • We would like to recognize and thank all of our distributors, whose dedication and expertise over the years have been foundational to establishing Brown-Forman's strong presence across the US Their dedication and hard work have been instrumental in building the strong foundation upon which this next chapter of growth will be built.

    我們要表彰並感謝我們所有的經銷商,多年來他們的奉獻和專業知識為 Brown-Forman 在美國建立強大的影響力奠定了基礎,他們的奉獻和辛勤工作為下一章的增長奠定了堅實的基礎。

  • Moving on to the rest of the P&L. In fiscal 2025, our reported and organic gross profit decreased 7% and 2%, respectively. This resulted in 150 basis points of gross margin contraction to 58.9%. We continued to benefit from favorable price mix, the Jack Daniel's Country Cocktail business model change and the positive impact from our portfolio evolution, which had been obscured by the transition services agreements related to Finlandia and Sonoma-Cutrer. These benefits were more than offset by higher costs and the negative impact of foreign exchange.

    繼續討論損益表的其餘部分。2025財年,我們的報告毛利和有機毛利分別下降了7%和2%。這導致毛利率下降150個基點至58.9%。我們繼續受益於有利的價格組合、傑克丹尼鄉村雞尾酒業務模式的改變以及我們的產品組合演變帶來的積極影響,而這些影響之前一直被與芬蘭和索諾瑪-卡特勒相關的過渡服務協議所掩蓋。但這些好處被更高的成本和外匯的負面影響所抵消。

  • As we shared in our outlook, we expected higher costs in the fiscal year due to the impact of inflation on our input cost and lower production levels as we work to return our finished goods inventories to more normal levels.

    正如我們在展望中所分享的,由於通貨膨脹對我們的投入成本的影響以及我們努力將成品庫存恢復到更正常水平時生產水平的下降,我們預計本財年的成本將會上升。

  • Operating expenses in fiscal 2025 were lower compared to fiscal 2024, largely due to a 6% decrease in organic advertising expense, particularly for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple as well as the comparison against the launch of the Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD in the United States in the year ago period. This largely reflects our advertising philosophy of aligning brand investment with depletion-based top line trends and a 5% decrease in organic SG&A investment led by lower compensation and benefits expense.

    2025 財年的營運費用與 2024 財年相比有所降低,主要是由於有機廣告費用下降了 6%,尤其是傑克丹尼田納西威士忌和傑克丹尼田納西蘋果的廣告費用,以及與去年同期在美國推出的傑克丹尼和可口可樂 RTD 相比。這在很大程度上反映了我們的廣告理念,即將品牌投資與基於消耗的營收趨勢相結合,由於薪資和福利費用降低,有機銷售、一般及行政管理費用 (SG&A) 投資下降 5%。

  • In total, including the restructuring and other charges that Lawson shared, reported operating income decreased 22%, largely driven by the divestitures of Finlandia and Sonoma-Cutrer in the prior year period. Organic operating income grew 3% in fiscal 2025. In addition, we received cash of $350 million in exchange for our 21.4% ownership interest in Duckhorn and recognized a $78 million gain on the sale of our investment in Duckhorn. In summary, the above results collectively led to a 14% diluted earnings per share decrease to $1.84.

    總體而言,包括勞森分擔的重組和其他費用在內,報告的營業收入下降了 22%,這主要是由於去年同期芬蘭公司和索諾瑪-卡特勒公司的資產剝離所致。2025財年有機營業收入成長3%。此外,我們還獲得了 3.5 億美元現金,以換取我們在 Duckhorn 的 21.4% 的所有權權益,並在出售我們在 Duckhorn 的投資時獲得了 7800 萬美元的收益。綜上所述,上述結果共同導致每股稀釋收益下降 14% 至 1.84 美元。

  • Before moving to our fiscal 2026 outlook, I will share a few comments about our fiscal 2025 capital deployment actions. Our capital deployment philosophy balances ongoing investment in the business, including organic investments and acquisitions, alongside shareholder returns such as regular dividends, share repurchases and special dividends. We approach capital allocation decisions with the core objective of sustainable long-term value creation. An important aspect of this philosophy is to maintain flexibility and the strength of our balance sheet.

    在談到我們的 2026 財年展望之前,我將分享一些關於我們 2025 財年資本部署行動的評論。我們的資本配置理念平衡了業務的持續投資(包括有機投資和收購)與股東回報(如定期股息、股票回購和特別股息)。我們制定資本配置決策的核心目標是創造可持續的長期價值。這一理念的一個重要面向是保持資產負債表的靈活性和強度。

  • In fiscal 2025, we continue to maintain our strong financial position. We increased our quarterly dividend for calendar year 2025 and paid quarterly dividends totaling $420 million to stockholders in the fiscal year. We also repaid $300 million of long-term notes at the maturity date of April 15, 2025.

    2025財年,我們將持續保持強勁的財務狀況。我們增加了 2025 日曆年的季度股息,並在本財政年度向股東支付了總計 4.2 億美元的季度股息。我們也在 2025 年 4 月 15 日到期日償還了 3 億美元的長期票據。

  • Now turning to our fiscal 2026 outlook. We believe the operating environment will remain volatile and visibility low due to geopolitical uncertainties and global macroeconomic conditions, particularly with regard to the tariff environment. This environment will create sustained levels of consumer uncertainty, which we believe will lead to another year of below historical total distilled spirits trends.

    現在來談談我們的 2026 財年展望。我們認為,由於地緣政治的不確定性和全球宏觀經濟狀況,尤其是關稅環境,經營環境仍將保持波動性,可見度較低。這種環境將造成消費者持續的不確定性,我們認為這將導致今年蒸餾酒總量趨勢再次低於歷史水準。

  • We continue to expect that the behavior of the consumer and the level of trade inventories will not change meaningfully during the 2026 fiscal year. We believe that the strength of our portfolio, the benefits of our route-to-consumer transitions and our evolved workforce structure as well as strategic innovation will help us to navigate the short-term cyclical disruptions.

    我們繼續預計,2026財年消費者行為和貿易庫存水準不會發生重大變化。我們相信,我們強大的產品組合、我們面向消費者的轉型帶來的好處、我們不斷發展的勞動力結構以及策略創新將幫助我們應對短期週期性中斷。

  • From a geographic perspective, we have now moved beyond the unusual comparisons of the past several years and expect the depletion-based trends in the US and developed international markets remain similar to fiscal 2025, with the exception of Canada, where American Spirit products largely remain off the shelf, partially offset by continued growth in our emerging markets. In addition, while we are working towards a smooth transition, we do expect some level of phasing disruption in the US as we move to new distributors.

    從地理角度來看,我們現在已經超越了過去幾年不尋常的比較,並預計美國和已開發國際市場的消耗趨勢與 2025 財年保持相似,但加拿大除外,在那裡 American Spirit 產品基本上仍處於下架狀態,但新興市場的持續增長部分抵消了這一趨勢。此外,雖然我們正在努力實現平穩過渡,但隨著我們轉向新的分銷商,我們確實預計美國將出現一定程度的分階段中斷。

  • Another cyclical driver of our fiscal 2026 outlook is the year-over-year change in our used barrel sales, which was a key contributor to our fiscal 2025 growth. We expect our used barrel sales will return to levels that are more typical in challenging and uncertain operating environment for our industry, which is approximately more than half of the fiscal 2025 level, making it a significant year-over-year headwind. We will continue to execute our long-term pricing strategy and expect to benefit from our revenue growth management activities and strategic innovation, while anticipating product mix headwinds due to faster growth of our RTD portfolio and agency brands.

    我們 2026 財年展望的另一個週期性驅動因素是我們的舊桶銷售同比變化,這是我們 2025 財年成長的關鍵因素。我們預計,我們的舊桶銷售將恢復到我們行業充滿挑戰和不確定的營運環境中更典型的水平,這大約是 2025 財年水平的一半以上,這將是同比顯著的阻力。我們將繼續執行我們的長期定價策略,並期望從我們的收入成長管理活動和策略創新中受益,同時預計由於我們的 RTD 產品組合和代理品牌的快速成長,產品組合將面臨阻力。

  • Based on the currently known factors, we expect a low single-digit decline in organic net sales. In this challenging environment, we will carefully manage our cost and operating expenses. Our outlook for organic operating expenses continues to reflect investment behind our brands, utilizing our long-term brand expense philosophy. Due to the strategic initiatives implemented in fiscal 2025, we expect a reduction in SG&A related to our recently announced strategic workforce initiatives. Based off the above, we forecast organic operating income to decline in the low single-digit range.

    根據目前已知的因素,我們預期有機淨銷售額將出現個位數低幅下降。在這個充滿挑戰的環境中,我們將謹慎管理成本和營運費用。我們對有機營運費用的展望繼續反映出我們對品牌背後的投資,並利用了我們的長期品牌費用理念。由於 2025 財年實施的策略性舉措,我們預計與最近宣布的策略性勞動力舉措相關的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 將減少。基於上述情況,我們預測有機營業收入將下降至個位數以下。

  • Our organic net sales and organic operating income outlook ranges are based on numerous scenarios, with the greatest influence from weaker to stronger consumer demand in key markets such as the United States, changes in distributor inventory levels and currently known tariffs. We will continue to monitor, adjust and update if conditions or trends evolve. We expect our estimated capital expenditure outlook to be in the range of $125 million to $135 million. We believe our fiscal 2026 effective tax rate will be in the range of approximately 21% to 23%.

    我們的有機淨銷售額和有機營業收入展望範圍基於多種情景,其中最大的影響因素是美國等主要市場的消費者需求由弱轉強、分銷商庫存水平的變化以及目前已知的關稅。如果情況或趨勢發生變化,我們將繼續監控、調整和更新。我們預計資本支出前景將在 1.25 億美元至 1.35 億美元之間。我們認為 2026 財年的有效稅率將在約 21% 至 23% 之間。

  • In summary, we delivered organic net sales and organic operating income growth in an uncertain and volatile operating environment in fiscal 2025, largely in line with our expectations. Despite the challenging short-term conditions, we remain focused on building our business for the long term, while navigating the current environment at pace by strengthening our portfolio of brands for the long term and introducing strategic innovation, benefiting from our streamlined and simplified workforce structure, which will increase our agility in responding to this dynamic operating environment, and taking greater control of our brands in international markets through own distribution as recently demonstrated in Japan and Italy, while ensuring in our largest and home market, the United States, that our brands are well positioned to win, with highly focused and engaged partners in an increasingly competitive environment.

    總而言之,我們在 2025 財年不確定且動盪的營運環境中實現了有機淨銷售額和有機營業收入成長,基本上符合我們的預期。儘管短期內面臨挑戰,我們仍將專注於長期發展業務,同時透過加強長期品牌組合和引入戰略創新,快速應對當前環境,受益於精簡的員工結構,這將提高我們應對動態運營環境的靈活性,並透過最近在日本和意大利展示的自有分銷渠道,在國際市場上更好地控制我們的品牌,同時確保在我們最大的本土市場,通過高度競爭

  • We anticipate these strategic initiatives will have short-term impacts on our business as we transition to new partners and ways of working, yet we believe they will unlock future growth and continue to build Brown-Forman and our brand for decades and generations to come.

    我們預計,在我們向新的合作夥伴和工作方式過渡的過程中,這些策略舉措將對我們的業務產生短期影響,但我們相信,它們將釋放未來的成長潛力,並在未來幾十年和幾代人的時間裡繼續打造 Brown-Forman 和我們的品牌。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks. Please open the line for questions.

    我們的準備好的演講到此結束。請開通熱線以解答疑問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝(操作員指示)

  • Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

    美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

  • Bryan Spillane - Analyst

    Bryan Spillane - Analyst

  • Terrific. Lawson, just stepping back, and I appreciate the commentary about just how volatile and difficult, I guess, the consumer environment is. And one thing we're trying to square here is how it's not uniform across all other consumer categories. Like if we look at -- I don't know, lodging, gaming, leisure, I mean there's a lot of other consumer categories that when we go through the transcripts and we listen to the companies describe the consumer, it's kind of normal, if not even a little bit better than normal. And yet if I take the commentary today, you would think we were in a recession, right?

    了不起。勞森,我只是退一步說,我很欣賞你對消費環境有多麼不穩定和困難的評論。我們在這裡試圖解決的一件事是,它在所有其他消費者類別中並不統一。例如,如果我們看一下——我不知道,住宿、遊戲、休閒,我的意思是還有很多其他消費者類別,當我們查看記錄並聽取公司對消費者的描述時,這很正常,甚至比正常情況好一點。然而,如果我接受今天的評論,你會認為我們正處於經濟衰退中,對嗎?

  • So can you just kind of -- a, is that your observation as you're kind of looking at the consumer and trying to understand what's happening, specifically to Brown-Forman into spirits? And any insight you can give us to help square that circle? Because I think, right, part of the reason why the stock is kind of erased over 10 years' worth of appreciation, is simply because I think people are seeing it more structural than cyclical. So any insight there would be helpful.

    那麼,您能否—這是您在觀察消費者並試圖了解發生了什麼事情時所做的觀察,特別是布朗福曼進軍烈酒行業的情況?您能給我們什麼見解來幫助解決這個問題嗎?因為我認為,股票價格在 10 年的升值過程中被抹去的部分原因僅僅是因為我認為人們認為它更多的是結構性的而不是週期性的。因此任何見解都會有幫助。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Bryan, it's a good question, a difficult one. I mean, the -- look, there are certainly a lot of consumer categories that are very weak. You're right. You cited a few that have done better than others. I know some big consumer products companies the last couple of days have released earnings, and they've gotten hammered with weaker consumer demand.

    是的,布萊恩,這是一個好問題,也是一個難題。我的意思是,確實有很多消費類別非常薄弱。你說得對。您列舉了一些比其他表現更好的例子。我知道一些大型消費品公司最近幾天發布了業績,它們因消費需求疲軟而受到重創。

  • So there's certainly an element to that and a lot of what we've been saying.

    所以這其中肯定有某種因素,而且我們所說的內容很多也都與此有關。

  • The whole structural versus cyclical argument, which we've been talking about for six quarters now, I think, something like that. I mean, I don't think there's a lot of newness to necessarily add to that conversation. I mean I've seen more and more people. It's the same big 3, the GLP-1s, the cannabis and the Gen Z, and we've been saying that for 1.5 years now.

    我認為,我們已經討論了六個季度的結構性與週期性爭論,就是這樣的。我的意思是,我認為沒有必要在這次談話中添加太多新鮮內容。我的意思是我見過越來越多的人。還是那三大巨頭,GLP-1、大麻和 Z 世代,我們已經說了一年半了。

  • And I know on the sell side that the world seems to be a little bit split on the extent of the pressure that it's putting on our category. We'd be naive if we didn't say that there isn't some pressure coming from those. But I still would argue that it is the consumer and their wallet just doesn't have as much money in it. You're right. They're spending money on things like vacations and lodging, as you said, and other things like that.

    我知道,從賣方角度來看,世界似乎對我們這個類別所承受的壓力程度有些分歧。如果我們不說這些因素不會帶來壓力,那我們就太天真了。但我仍然認為,問題在於消費者,只是他們的錢包裡沒有那麼多錢。你說得對。正如您所說,他們將錢花在度假、住宿和其他類似的事情上。

  • But then when it trickles down and they go to the grocery store, I think, in some cases, spirits has fallen out of the basket a little bit. And that isn't obviously great.

    但當酒水逐漸減少,人們去雜貨店時,我認為,在某些情況下,烈酒已經從籃子裡掉了一點。這顯然不是好事。

  • But on the tailwind side of things, there are some things that are doing well. Spirits continues to take share from beer and wine. So that dynamic hasn't changed. Premiumization is not at the same rate it was, but it's kind of stagnant a little bit, but I think that is good news for the most part. I think the consumers haven't -- they haven't traded down necessarily.

    但從順風方面來看,有些事情進展順利。烈酒繼續搶佔啤酒和葡萄酒的市場份額。所以這種動態並沒有改變。高端化的速度不如以前,有點停滯不前,但我認為這在很大程度上是個好消息。我認為消費者還沒有——他們不一定會降低消費水準。

  • And you know our portfolio stays up at the much more on the premium side of things. So I don't think there's a lot of new news that I can add to that conversation other than that we continue to pull the levers that we can pull, and you are seeing a bit of a global slowdown.

    而且您知道,我們的投資組合在高端方面保持在高水準。因此,我認為除了我們繼續盡我們所能,並且看到全球經濟略有放緩之外,我沒有太多新消息可以添加到這個對話中。

  • The other thing, which I didn't mention on the structural cyclical thing that we haven't talked about in a little while. But I do think when we look at Europe compared to the United States, Europe, although some green shoots may be in some big markets over there, but Europe has largely been seeing trends that are really the same as the United States. Yet they don't have the cannabis issue. The GLP-1s are not nearly as big. Healthy lifestyle, the Gen Z, I think, anecdotally, everybody is seeing that out there and everybody is commenting on that.

    另一件事,我沒有提到我們有一段時間沒有談論過的結構性週期性問題。但我確實認為,當我們將歐洲與美國進行比較時,儘管歐洲的一些大市場可能出現了一些復甦的跡象,但歐洲在很大程度上看到的趨勢與美國實際上是相同的。但他們沒有大麻問題。GLP-1 遠沒有那麼大。健康的生活方式,Z 世代,我認為,從軼事來看,每個人都看到了這一點,每個人都在對此發表評論。

  • But the factors that are affecting the world really, to me, still sound a whole lot more cyclical than they do structural. That was a long answer.

    但對我來說,真正影響世界的因素聽起來仍然更具週期性而非結構性。這是一個很長的答案。

  • Bryan Spillane - Analyst

    Bryan Spillane - Analyst

  • All right. If we learn more, I'll share with you. But it is -- we're perplexed by it.

    好的。如果我們了解更多,我會與你們分享。但事實確實如此——我們對此感到困惑。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein

    Nadine Sarwat 與 Bernstein

  • Nadine Sarwat - Analyst

    Nadine Sarwat - Analyst

  • I have two, one on the guidance and one longer term. So first one on the guidance, can you flesh out a little bit what's included in that top line guidance for fiscal '26, both in terms of distributor inventories in and or underlying consumer demand? Are you assuming some improvement in the back half or simply more of the same? And similarly, on the profit guide, just clarifying what does that imply in tariffs? Is that status quo?

    我有兩個,一個是指導性的,一個是長期性的。那麼首先關於指引,您能否詳細說明一下 26 財年的頂線指引中包含哪些內容,包括經銷商庫存和潛在消費者需求?您是否認為後半部分會有所改善,還是只是基本保持不變?同樣,關於利潤指南,只是澄清一下這在關稅中意味著什麼?這就是現狀嗎?

  • Are you baking in any form of tariff assumption in there? So that's the sort of tariff question.

    您是否在其中考慮了任何形式的關稅假設?這就是關稅問題。

  • And then the longer-term question is your fiscal '26 guidance is now obviously quite far off the medium-term growth algorithm that you've communicated at your last Investor Day. And I think if we reflect on what's going on with the stock today, that's probably a big portion of that is that growth being, at least for the moment, pushed into the future. So for those who are listening in who are concerned about that and reaching that medium-term growth algorithm that you communicated previously, has that algo changed? How are you thinking of the potential for the business to grow in the long term?

    那麼長期問題是,您的 26 財年指導顯然與您在上次投資者日上傳達的中期成長演算法相差甚遠。我認為,如果我們回顧一下今天股票的走勢,其中很大一部分原因可能是,至少就目前而言,成長被推遲到了未來。那麼,對於那些正在收聽並關心這一點並達到您之前傳達的中期成長演算法的人來說,演算法是否發生了變化?您如何看待該業務的長期成長潛力?

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Nadine, thanks for your questions. I'll start with guidance, and I'll turn it over to Lawson for a longer-term algorithm.

    納丁,謝謝你的提問。我將從指導開始,然後將其交給 Lawson 進行更長期的演算法。

  • So kind of stepping back a bit, as we think about F '25 largely in line with our expectations, we had sequential improvement through each of the first three quarters. And then in the fourth quarter, we had planned for that trend to continue.

    因此,稍微退一步來看,我們認為 F'25 基本上符合我們的預期,前三個季度我們每季都取得了連續的進步。然後在第四季度,我們計劃繼續保持這種趨勢。

  • But then that's where we got into more geopolitical volatility around the tariff environment. We saw the drop in the consumer confidence. And that's on top of that kind of stretched consumer we've been talking about for several quarters.

    但那時我們就陷入了關稅環境相關的地緣政治動盪之中。我們看到消費者信心下降。這是我們幾個季度以來一直在討論的消費者壓力最大的問題。

  • And when we think about our fourth quarter and then how that leads into F '26, that impacted the US and a lot of our key developed markets, particularly Europe, but for our performance, in the fourth quarter is kind of largely in line with the softening trends of TDS. So that's how we enter our fiscal '26.

    當我們思考第四季以及這將如何影響 2026 年時,我們發現這對美國和許多主要已開發市場(尤其是歐洲)產生了影響,但就我們的業績而言,第四季度的業績與 TDS 的疲軟趨勢基本一致。這就是我們進入 26 財年的方式。

  • And so from an environment perspective, we do think it's going to remain volatile, and the visibility is going to continue to be low around the tariff environment. That's a big piece of that. We believe that through all of that continued kind of uncertainty, that the consumer is going to remain at that sustained level that it is now.

    因此,從環境角度來看,我們確實認為它將保持波動,並且關稅環境的可見性將繼續較低。這是其中很大的一部分。我們相信,儘管存在所有這些持續的不確定性,但消費者仍將維持目前的水平。

  • And so we're just really thinking about the behavior of the consumer and the level of trade inventories as we're thinking about the environment that we'll be operating in, in fiscal 2026 is kind of largely the same as we entered into this fiscal year.

    因此,當我們考慮我們將要營運的環境時,我們實際上只是在考慮消費者的行為和貿易庫存水平,2026 財年的營運環境與我們進入本財年的環境大致相同。

  • But we have a lot going on as we talked about as it relates to our outlook because again, during Lawson's prepared remarks, we are really investing in strengthening the portfolio of the brands, and he mentioned what those were.

    但正如我們所討論的,我們有很多事情要做,因為這與我們的前景有關,因為在勞森準備好的發言中,我們確實在投資加強品牌組合,他也提到了這些是什麼。

  • We're introducing strategic innovation of Jack Daniel's Blackberry, which we think is going to resonate well with consumers worldwide. We're going to continue to benefit from our recent route to consumers with Japan and Italy and then also our streamlined organization, which can be highly agile in this environment.

    我們正在推出傑克丹尼黑莓的策略創新,我們認為這會引起全球消費者的共鳴。我們將繼續受益於最近與日本和義大利的消費者建立的聯繫,以及我們精簡的組織結構,在這種環境下可以非常靈活。

  • We talked about too on our call, for us, one of the -- we expect kind of mostly developed markets to remain the same. But for American products off the shelf in Canada and that being about 1 point of our top line growth for FY'24 and FY '25, we're continuing to assume that our products largely remain off the shelf in Canada, and then our growth is going to continue to come from emerging markets again for FY 26.

    我們在電話會議上也談到了這一點,對我們來說,我們預計大多數已開發市場將保持不變。但對於在加拿大上市的美國產品而言,這占我們 24 財年和 25 財年營收成長的 1 個百分點左右,我們繼續假設我們的產品在加拿大基本上仍為現貨供應,然後我們的成長將繼續來自 26 財年的新興市場。

  • So to your comment on tariffs, as we kind of said in our last call, we know it's highly volatile. None of us can predict what's going on. What we have included in our guide is what we do know as of this date. Largely that's coming through as the indirect impact from Canada, but then also the direct impact on some of our cost of goods, and that's built into our guide.

    因此,對於您對關稅的評論,正如我們在上次電話會議中所說的那樣,我們知道它非常不穩定。我們誰也無法預測接下來會發生什麼事。我們的指南中包含的內容是我們截至目前為止所知道的內容。這主要是來自加拿大的間接影響,但也對我們的部分商品成本產生了直接影響,這些都已納入我們的指南中。

  • We talked about the disruption that we do expect for 14 distributor transitions in key markets in the United States. We are all working hard to make sure that goes seamlessly. But with that number of changes, we've just got to plan for some level of disruption. And then one thing I'd really like to touch on a bit more that's in that guide is our used barrels. So we know that there's been an increasing global demand for whiskey over the last a number of years, and that's created strong demand for our once-used American wide-out barrels.

    我們討論了我們預計美國主要市場 14 家經銷商轉型將帶來的混亂。我們都在努力確保一切順利進行。但隨著變化的增多,我們必須為一定程度的中斷做好準備。然後,我真正想進一步談談該指南中的一件事,那就是我們使用過的桶子。因此,我們知道,過去幾年來全球對威士忌的需求不斷增加,這對我們曾經使用過的美國寬桶產生了強勁的需求。

  • If you kind of look back over the last 15 years, in a challenging operating environment, such as 2010 with economic recession and with the global pandemic, our used barrel sales typically come step down during environments like that.

    如果回顧過去 15 年,在充滿挑戰的經營環境中,例如 2010 年的經濟衰退和全球疫情,我們的二手桶銷售通常會在這樣的環境下下降。

  • And then in the following years, kind of return to more normal buying patterns. So being in the environment that we're in as an industry, we would expect in F '26 to that to step down more than half. And just so to help you all a bit, in FY '24 10-K, we said that our branded and non-bulk was about $87 million. And in our press release, we said for FY '25 on Schedule B, it grew 18%.

    然後在接下來的幾年裡,回歸到更正常的購買模式。因此,在我們所處的產業環境中,我們預期在 F'26 中這一數字將下降一半以上。為了幫助大家,在 24 財年 10-K 報表中,我們表示我們的品牌和非批量產品銷售額約為 8700 萬美元。在我們的新聞稿中,我們表示,25 財年的 B 表成長了 18%。

  • And then we've just shared with you that in our guide, we think that's more than half.

    然後我們剛剛在指南中與您分享了這一點,我們認為這個數字超過了一半。

  • Now another thing to take into consideration, and it's to your point on leverage, the used barrels are -- have a gross margin well above the company average. So as we see this short-term cyclical kind of softening of demand for that -- for the used barrels, as it flows down through the P&L, we just -- it just has a greater impact -- an outsized impact on our operating income.

    現在需要考慮的另一件事是,關於槓桿,用過的桶的毛利率遠高於公司平均值。因此,當我們看到這種短期週期性需求疲軟時——對於二手桶,隨著它流入損益表,我們——它對我們的營業收入產生了更大的影響——巨大的影響。

  • So with that, I'll turn it over to Lawson for the make -- for the long term --

    因此,我將把這個任務交給勞森,以便長期--

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The long term, the growth algorithm. So just to remind everyone sort of what that was or what we said in our last investor conference was sort of mid-single-digit growth in the United States, growing around the TDS number, which historically been in that four to five range. A little bit higher on developed international and a little bit better than that on emerging markets. When we get to there, that sort of makes all the math work. And we had literally achieved that for the most part over the last 20, 30 years kind of time frame.

    從長遠來看,成長演算法。因此,只是為了提醒大家那是什麼,或者我們在上次投資者會議上所說的是美國的中等個位數增長,圍繞 TDS 數字增長,歷史上一直在四到五的範圍內。已開發國際市場略高一些,新興市場略好。當我們到達那裡時,所有的數學運算就都成立了。在過去的 20 到 30 年的時間裡,我們基本上已經實現了這一目標。

  • Obviously, the last few years have been a whole lot more volatile than that.

    顯然,過去幾年的情況比這更加動盪。

  • So having said that, when we talked about that kind of algorithm, if you remember, if you go back two years ago, TDS in the US was growing five or six, even two years ago. Long term, we have always said kind of a four to five grower market. Well, right now, it's declining at four to five. So that algorithm doesn't work when the market is declining at that kind of rate.

    話雖如此,當我們談論這個演算法時,如果你還記得的話,如果你回到兩年前,美國的 TDS 已經在五、六年前甚至兩年前就已經成長了。從長期來看,我們一直認為這是一個四到五個成長者的市場。嗯,現在,它正在以四比五的速度下降。因此,當市場以這種速度下滑時,該演算法就不起作用了。

  • So when we're going to return to our old growth algorithm, I do think has a lot to do with not only the US but in Europe, starting to see some improved industry trends. I mean -- and I think that's true across the whole industry. I mean we're obviously not the only ones that are not delivering against that long-term algorithm.

    因此,當我們要回到舊的成長演算法時,我確實認為這不僅與美國有很大關係,而且與歐洲也開始看到一些改善的行業趨勢有關。我的意思是——我認為整個行業都是如此。我的意思是,我們顯然不是唯一沒有實現這一長期演算法的人。

  • But if you're a believer in the cyclical nature of so many of the problems here, it's tough to predict when that's going to come back, but it will. And look, the fourth quarter had some weakness in it a little bit. TDS weakened 1 point or 2 more. So that contributed to sort of a little bit of the surprise, I think, that everybody is seeing right now. But we still feel like we are pulling the right levers, that we've got the right brands in the right categories.

    但如果你相信這裡的許多問題都具有週期性,那麼很難預測什麼時候會再次出現,但它一定會出現。看看,第四季有些疲軟。TDS減弱1點或2點以上。所以我認為,這在某種程度上導致了現在每個人都感到有點驚訝。但我們仍然覺得我們正在採取正確的措施,我們在正確的類別中擁有正確的品牌。

  • All that kind of stuff hasn't changed, it's just the environment continues to be really difficult. Was that question? Okay.

    所有這些事情都沒有改變,只是環境仍然非常困難。那是那個問題嗎?好的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin Grundy with BNP

    法國巴黎銀行的凱文‧格蘭迪

  • Kevin Grundy - Analyst

    Kevin Grundy - Analyst

  • Two strategic ones for me, if we could. So Lawson, your -- a key competitor here has a new CFO, who comes from the Coke system. There's been great progress on the soft drink side from a mix perspective -- from a package mix perspective. And it seems like that may be something that a key competitor is intent on pursuing as a way not just to drive profits, but also to reach a more value-oriented consumer and to drive improvement. And I was just curious to kind of get your thoughts on that.

    如果可以的話,對我來說有兩個策略性的問題。勞森,你們這裡的主要競爭對手有一位新任財務官,他來自可口可樂系統。從混合角度——從包裝混合角度——軟性飲料方面取得了巨大進步。這似乎是主要競爭對手想要追求的目標,不僅是為了提高利潤,也是為了接觸更注重價值的消費者並推動改善。我只是好奇想知道您對此的看法。

  • And then just unrelatedly, just on the pricing outlook here, if you could just comment, you guys have heard this before just in terms of the amount of supply that's out there in US whiskey, coupled with the fact that demand is slowing, which is now reflected in your outlook, and the worry among the investment community is what that may mean for industry pricing and then ostensibly, margins. So maybe just your updated thoughts on those two things would be appreciated.

    然後,無關地,僅就這裡的價格前景而言,如果您可以評論一下,你們之前就聽說過美國威士忌的供應量,再加上需求正在放緩的事實,這現在反映在您的前景中,投資界擔心的是,這可能對行業定價以及表面上的利潤率意味著什麼。因此,也許您會很感激您對這兩件事的最新想法。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Right, let me take a pricing question first, and then we'll come back into the RTD.

    好的,讓我先回答一個定價問題,然後我們再回到 RTD。

  • Pricing, look, what we have said before and we are still saying today, is low single digit on a regular basis. It's the pricing that we want to see at Brown-Forman. We're always talking about the US We'll come back to the US pricing for a second.

    定價,你看,我們以前說過,而且我們今天還在說,定期定價是低個位數。這是我們希望在 Brown-Forman 看到的定價。我們一直在談論美國,我們先來談談美國的定價。

  • Over the last 13 weeks, TDS was down 1 point. We were down less than that. So that's not great, but not -- it's not like the bottom is falling out, and you get some mixed things in there, too, as RTDs have been strong.

    在過去的 13 週內,TDS 下降了 1 個百分點。我們的損失比這少。所以這不是很好,但也不是——這並不意味著底部正在崩塌,而且你也會遇到一些混合的情況,因為 RTD 一直很強勁。

  • But importantly, though, I think an interesting part of that is US whiskey, suburbans for the most part or Tennessee Whiskey, is basically flat. So for those that have expressed concern, I know over the last few calls, we've had conversations around industry supply and things like that. At least so far, it has not flowed through to more promotional lower pricing.

    但重要的是,我認為其中一個有趣的部分是美國威士忌,大部分是郊區威士忌或田納西威士忌,基本上是持平的。因此,對於那些表達擔憂的人,我知道在過去的幾次通話中,我們已經討論了行業供應等問題。至少到目前為止,它還沒有轉化為更多的促銷降價。

  • And so -- and I think -- and what we said last time, and I just -- I'll say it again, the big players in American whiskey control -- we have very large market share of the American whiskey category, and it's the big players, it's the Diageos and Brown-Formans and [Sazeracs] and Beams. And they seem to be professional in the pricing whenever the world really wants to be rational. I guess that's a better word for it. That they're being rational in their pricing environment.

    所以 — — 我認為 — — 正如我們上次所說的,我只是 — — 我再說一遍,美國威士忌控制領域的大公司 — — 我們在美國威士忌類別中佔有非常大的市場份額,而這些大公司,包括帝亞吉歐 (Diageos)、布朗福曼 (Brown-Formans)、[薩澤拉克] (Sazeracs) 和 Beams。每當世界真正想要理性時,他們的定價似乎都很專業。我想這是一個更好的詞。他們的定價環境是理性的。

  • Tequila is the other category that everybody wants to talk about. It's down 2%. Once again, it's not like the bottom is falling out, but I think we all accepted that you were going to see some pressure on tequila pricing, given the direction of the cost of agave. So -- but it's -- I don't want to say pleasantly surprised, but I guess I am a little bit that the pricing environment has stayed where it is.

    龍舌蘭酒是另一個大家都想談論的酒類。下降了2%。再說一次,這並不意味著價格已經跌至谷底,但考慮到龍舌蘭成本的走向,我想我們都承認,龍舌蘭酒的價格將面臨一些壓力。所以 - 但這是 - 我不想說驚喜,但我想我有點覺得定價環境保持原樣。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And then I would say to the RTD comment that you were referring to. We've been in this business for over 30-plus years. We have over kind of 30 million cases of RTDs already in our portfolio. But you would have heard in Lawson's prepared comments, it's something we continue to very much believe in.

    然後我想談談您所提到的 RTD 評論。我們從事這個行業已經三十多年了。我們的投資組合中已有超過 3,000 萬個 RTD 案例。但您可能已經從勞森的準備好的評論中聽到了,這是我們仍然非常相信的事情。

  • New Mix, which is one of our key drivers of growth, in Mexico, we've been able to take pricing. We have been expanding our distribution. And through innovation, we've been launching new flavors. For the -- in F '26, we're also going to take New Mix and extend it beyond Mexico and launch it into the US, targeted specifically to some areas as we begin the launch to give it good footing as we go forward. We think it will continue to resonate well with a lot of consumers.

    New Mix 是我們墨西哥成長的關鍵驅動力之一,我們已經能夠定價。我們一直在擴大我們的分銷範圍。透過創新,我們不斷推出新的口味。對於 - 在 F'26 中,我們還將採用 New Mix 並將其擴展到墨西哥以外的地區,並將其推廣到美國,在我們開始推出時專門針對某些地區,以便為我們未來的發展奠定良好的基礎。我們認為它將繼續引起大量消費者的共鳴。

  • And then also for our Jack & Coke, it's about geographic expansion in F '26 and working through and launching new innovations in that space. You would have seen us do that in F '25 with the variety pack, which we had Jack & Coke, Jack & Coke Cherry and Jack & Coke Vanilla, and it's just a space where we continue to innovate and grow. So we agree the consumer right now in many places around the world is preferring convenience and flavor, and this is a good format to be able to deliver that to them.

    對於我們的傑克可樂 (Jack & Coke) 來說,這涉及 F '26 的地理擴張以及在該領域的努力和推出新的創新。您可能已經看到我們在 F'25 中使用多種包裝來做到這一點,其中包括傑克可樂、傑克可樂櫻桃和傑克可樂香草,這只是我們繼續創新和發展的空間。因此,我們同意,目前世界各地的消費者都更喜歡便利性和風味,這是一種能夠滿足他們需求的好形式。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • One thing I'll add to that, too, on the comment earlier about package and sizing and things like that, that [quality] is a little bit easier in the nonalcoholic space. There's more flexibility than there is in ours. But just as one stat. I found it interesting. I have not heard this before.

    關於之前關於包裝、尺寸等的評論,我還要補充一點,非酒精飲料的品質更容易掌握。它比我們的更靈活。但僅僅作為一個統計數據。我覺得這很有趣。我以前沒聽過這個。

  • 80% is the Nielsen US last 12 months. 80% of the dollar growth in spirits has been through the [3 7 5] and the 50 ml. So the small sizes. That's unusual, to say the least.

    80% 是尼爾森美國過去 12 個月的統計數據。烈酒銷售額的 80% 成長來自於 [3 7 5] 和 50 毫升。所以尺寸很小。至少可以說這是不尋常的。

  • And I think it just -- it goes further to talk about cyclical challenges of a consumer who's pinched and just goes to the store with a $10 bill instead of $20, and then they get the smaller size. But we don't necessarily consider that a bad thing. And that came up with a couple of calls ago, maybe for some folks. It means they still want your brand. They just can't afford the whole -- they can't afford a leader or whatever it might be, and so they're taking a smaller size.

    我認為這只是——它進一步討論了消費者面臨的周期性挑戰,他們手頭拮据,帶著 10 美元而不是 20 美元的鈔票去商店,然後他們購買較小面值的鈔票。但我們不一定認為這是一件壞事。這個問題是在幾次通話之前提出的,也許對某些人來說是這樣。這意味著他們仍然想要你的品牌。他們根本負擔不起全部費用——他們負擔不起領導者或其他任何人的費用,所以他們選擇較小規模的團隊。

  • So I think that is a sign. And it's a, call it, an opportunity, too, that we need to get better at getting our small sizes out there and everyone, particularly in the US, is very aware of that and they're going for it. So --

    所以我認為這是一個跡象。這也是一個機會,我們需要更好地推廣我們的小尺寸產品,每個人,特別是美國人,都非常清楚這一點,並且他們正在為此努力。所以--

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And one small data point about the consumer in the US, while our coupons are a small tool and our promotional toolkit and consist and have the same consistent level on FY '24, FY '25 of coupons offered, we are seeing redemption rate increase. So again, looking at that consumer who's looking for the value and be able to afford the luxury, they can while remaining brand loyal.

    關於美國消費者的一個小數據點是,雖然我們的優惠券是一個小工具和促銷工具包,並且在 24 財年和 25 財年提供的優惠券的水平保持一致,但我們看到兌換率有所提高。所以,再說一次,對於那些尋求價值並能負擔得起奢侈品的消費者來說,他們可以同時保持品牌忠誠度。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And one, if I can, to Nadine's question from five minutes ago, I wanted to add one other point, I think, that's important that I forgot to say. And it's basically despite what's happened over the last 12 months and a bit of the volatility and the challenges and the slowdown in the business, our three-year, our five-year and our 10-year CAGR for top line growth is the same number. It's all in the mid-single digits.

    另外,如果可以的話,針對納丁五分鐘前提出的問題,我想補充一點,我認為這很重要,但我忘了說。儘管過去 12 個月發生了一些變化,業務出現了一些波動、挑戰和放緩,但我們三年、五年和十年的複合年增長率仍然是相同的。全部都在個位數中間。

  • So the three-year and the 10-year are the same number. It doesn't feel that way right now because of what's happened really in the last 12-months, but it's coming off those elevated years post-COVID.

    所以三年和十年是相同的數字。由於過去 12 個月發生的事情,現在感覺並非如此,但它正在擺脫新冠疫情後那些高漲的時期。

  • But I just find that interesting that three, five and 10 would all be the same.

    但我發現有趣的是,三、五和十都是一樣的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

  • Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

    Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

  • Great. So Lawson, just following on the heels of that and looking at those sort of average growth rates over a multiyear period, obviously, like by nature of the math, they're smoothing and here in that. But the trend line is less than encouraging. And notwithstanding everything you've already offered on due the cyclical versus structural. What about the what if?

    偉大的。因此,勞森只是緊隨其後,並觀察多年期間的平均成長率,顯然,從數學的本質來看,它們是平滑的。但趨勢並不令人樂觀。儘管您已經提供了所有關於週期性與結構性因素的資訊。那如果怎樣呢?

  • Like what if it is more structural? What if the category, let's say, TDS, rather than being down four to five, we reach a new level, and it's kind of like -- it's more like beer. So let's call it down, well, beer is [2]. But let's just, for the sake of argument, say, it's a down low single digit. What does that mean?

    如果它更結構化會怎樣?如果該類別(例如 TDS)不是下降四到五,而是達到一個新的水平,那會怎麼樣?這有點像——更像啤酒。所以,讓我們來算一下,啤酒是[2]。但是,為了論證的目的,我們就假設它是一個較低的個位數。這意味著什麼?

  • What's the business planning? What's the break glass in case of emergency plan, if there is one? But just -- to what degree are you guys having these conversations about what is the future business model if it's not cyclical?

    商業規劃是怎樣的?如果有緊急破窗計劃,那是什麼?但是──如果未來的商業模式不是週期性的,你們在多大程度上討論過它?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, yes, look, I mean, that's a tough question. We certainly talk about it, although I'd still argue I think we've -- we still believe in the cyclical side of the arch. But I try to answer your question a little bit as to what will we do differently? I mean, look, you take a page out of carbonated beverages and sodas, you take a page out of beer or some of those means, you're doing more pricing. If the volume is not there, and they still deliver -- I mean both beer and carbonated beverages has obviously lived on pricing and for the last decade really.

    嗯,是的,看,我的意思是,這是一個棘手的問題。我們當然談論過它,儘管我仍然認為我們——我們仍然相信週期性的一面。但我試著稍微回答一下你的問題:我們會採取哪些不同的做法?我的意思是,你看,你借鑒了碳酸飲料和蘇打水的做法,你借鑒了啤酒的做法,或者其他一些方法,你正在製定更多的定價。如果銷售量不夠,他們仍然會供貨——我的意思是,啤酒和碳酸飲料顯然都是靠定價生存的,而且過去十年確實如此。

  • So I think there's some changes there. I mean, I think there's some resource reallocation. We're not seeing these headwinds in much of our emerging markets, and they continue to grow. They continue to be the source of strength for our company, and there's a long way to go in the world of emerging markets. As we've said many, many times, we've kind of barely scratched it.

    所以我認為那裡有一些變化。我的意思是,我認為存在一些資源重新分配。我們在許多新興市場中沒有看到這些不利因素,而且它們仍在繼續成長。它們繼續成為我們公司的力量源泉,在新興市場的世界裡我們還有很長的路要走。正如我們多次說過的,我們只是觸及了它而已。

  • So I think where the growth comes from is going to be a little bit different too. And then we look at our portfolio. I mean, I still -- we are -- as everyone knows, we are a premium-based spirits company. Premium consumers, I do believe are going to continue to be -- they're going to want brands like the ones that we have. And so I think we're relatively underexposed compared to some others that have a bigger longer tail and a lower-priced portfolio.

    所以我認為成長的來源也會有點不同。然後我們看看我們的投資組合。我的意思是,我仍然——我們——眾所周知,我們是一家高端烈酒公司。我確實相信高端消費者將會繼續下去——他們會想要像我們這樣的品牌。因此,我認為與其他擁有更長尾部和更低價投資組合的公司相比,我們的曝光度相對較低。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And just to build on that a bit, like with the US RFP that we just did, it was all about making sure that the brand that we have in a competitive market are with partners that have proven track records, strong capabilities and a shared commitment to make sure they're going to continue to grow our brands. They have ensured we are going to have dedication, focus, investment and building our brands. We continue to do that in other markets such as UAE, where we are expanding our distribution, and Turkey, where we have new distributors that will cover more geographies, to Lawson's point, emerging international.

    再進一步說,就像我們剛剛做的美國 RFP 一樣,這一切都是為了確保我們在競爭激烈的市場中擁有的品牌與擁有良好業績記錄、強大能力和共同承諾的合作夥伴合作,以確保他們將繼續發展我們的品牌。他們確保我們全心投入、專注投資並打造我們的品牌。我們將繼續在阿聯酋等其他市場開展此類活動,在阿聯酋,我們正在擴大分銷範圍;在土耳其,我們擁有新的分銷商,將覆蓋更多地區,正如勞森所言,我們正在走向國際化。

  • We're doing it with Italy and Japan and taking those brands into our hands, especially with Gin Mare and Diplomaico diplomatic where we have a lot of opportunity to continue to grow those brands. So it's that and it's continued to find synergies where it's available. And I hope, through all of the work that we have been doing over the last two fiscal years, FY'25 and what we have planned for F '26, we are demonstrating that we are moving at pace with many strategic initiatives, and we are being incredibly agile to make sure we're capturing synergies and opportunities.

    我們正在與義大利和日本合作,將這些品牌掌握在自己手中,特別是與 Gin Mare 和 Diplomaico 外交品牌合作,我們有很多機會繼續發展這些品牌。就是這樣,它會繼續尋找可用的協同效應。我希望,透過我們在過去兩個財年(25財年)所做的所有工作以及我們為26財年制定的計劃,我們能夠證明我們正在按照許多戰略舉措的步伐前進,並且我們非常靈活,以確保我們能夠抓住協同效應和機遇。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Moskow with TD Cohen

    羅伯特莫斯科與 TD Cohen

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • I was hoping you could comment on a couple of things. One is this is a very volatile global environment. And in a lot of markets, there's discontent about American brands. Have you done any like testing of how your Jack Daniel's brand is perceived in these international markets, if anything has changed?

    我希望您能對一些事情發表評論。一是全球環境非常不穩定。在許多市場中,人們對美國品牌存在不滿。您是否對您的傑克丹尼品牌在這些國際市場上的認知度進行過類似的測試?是否有任何變化?

  • And then secondly, can you talk about your philosophy on A&P.? A&P is down 6% in fiscal '25. Would you expect it to be down again in fiscal '26, given the expectation for sales to be down?

    其次,您能談談您對 A&P 的理念嗎?A&P 在 25 財年下跌了 6%。考慮到銷售額預計會下降,您是否預期 26 財年銷售額會再次下降?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, let me take on the Jack one first. And -- we've had this quite literally over my career. It's come through numerous different times when there's a bit of anti-American sentiment that's moving around the world. Historically, they've never "taken it out on the brand." And we've got numerous examples of that back in the days when Russia, when we were still selling in Russia, that we didn't lose any momentum there with that. France is another one where, over the years, we've had different -- there have been different anti-American sentiments and it didn't really affect the brand.

    好吧,讓我先來談談傑克。並且——在我的職業生涯中我們確實遇到過這種情況。當世界各地出現反美情緒時,這種現象就會多次出現。從歷史上看,他們從來沒有「拿品牌出氣」。我們有無數這樣的例子,當我們還在俄羅斯銷售時,我們並沒有失去在那裡的任何動力。法國是另一個例子,多年來,我們經歷了不同的反美情緒,但這並沒有真正影響我們的品牌。

  • And so -- and then in terms of how do we measure it, are we testing it and those kind of things. I mean it's one thing. I mean, almost. If I could find one very positive thing to say today after everything we're doing is we have made so many changes to the Jack Daniel's communications and consumer, touching all those plans have changed quite a bit, highlighted by the new advertising campaign, which has only been out for a few weeks. So you're not going to see anything in the data yet.

    那麼——然後就我們如何測量它、我們是否對其進行測試以及諸如此類的事情而言。我的意思是這是一回事。我的意思是,差不多。如果今天在我們所做的一切之後我能找到一件非常積極的事情說出來的話,那就是我們對傑克丹尼的溝通和消費者做出了很多改變,觸及所有這些計劃都發生了很大變化,而新推出的廣告活動則突顯了這一點,該活動才推出幾週。因此您還不會在數據中看到任何內容。

  • But we are seeing now meaningful improvement in the brand health measures, and there's probably nothing more important over the long term for Brown-Forman that. And so we think we've made some smart moves there and the different programs that we're running right now. And so when we do our consumer testing, we are not seeing anything flow through in terms of knock to brand health so far. So we feel pretty good about that.

    但我們現在看到品牌健康指標有了顯著改善,從長遠來看,對於 Brown-Forman 來說,沒有什麼比這更重要了。因此,我們認為我們在那裡採取了一些明智的舉措,並且目前正在運行不同的計劃。因此,當我們進行消費者測試時,到目前為止我們還沒有看到任何對品牌健康產生影響的情況。所以我們對此感覺很好。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And then from an A&P philosophy, there's really no change in philosophy. There's just been volatility in that philosophy because we plan our A&P in line with our depletion-based expectations. And starting with COVID, as you've been following our story, depletions and shipments that there have been a gap between those for a lot of reasons that we've discussed over many years. Those gaps have now closed. So we will continue to plan in line with depletion based growth.

    從 A&P 哲學角度來看,哲學其實沒有任何改變。這種理念一直存在波動,因為我們根據基於消耗的預期來規劃 A&P。從 COVID 開始,正如您一直關注我們的故事一樣,由於我們多年來討論過的許多原因,消耗量和出貨量之間存在差距。這些差距現在已經縮小。因此,我們將繼續按照基於消耗的成長進行規劃。

  • And over the last -- and I think it's important to mention that over the last five years, we've increased our brand investment by nearly $100 million. So we believe the level of investment that we're making in our portfolios is adequate. And that also, we have to remember for our portfolio of premium plus brands that are also supported by our people, which are coming through SG&A.

    在過去——我認為值得一提的是,在過去五年裡,我們的品牌投資增加了近 1 億美元。因此,我們相信我們投資組合中的投資水準是足夠的。此外,我們還必須記住,我們的高端品牌組合也得到了員工的支持,這些支持是透過銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 實現的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Filippo Falorni with Citi

    花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni

  • Filippo Falorni - Analyst

    Filippo Falorni - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question.

    大家好,早安。感謝您回答這個問題。

  • So first I wanted to ask about the developed international business, clearly a material deceleration in Q4. I get the Canada component of it, but can you expand a little bit more in kind of the European weakness you talked a bit about the UK, but just generally the weakness that you see in other developed markets there.

    因此,首先我想問一下發達的國際業務,第四季顯然出現了實質減速。我了解其中的加拿大部分,但您能否進一步闡述歐洲的弱點,您剛才談到了英國,但總體上您也看到了其他已開發市場的弱點。

  • And then the second question just to follow up on the guidance. I know you guys on an organic basis, just clarifying, does that include the corbell, exit, and if not, like just give us a sense of how much that should be an incremental headwind, to top line and profit.

    第二個問題只是為了跟進指導。我知道你們在有機基礎上,只是澄清一下,這是否包括支撐、退出,如果沒有,就像讓我們了解一下這對營業額和利潤來說應該是一個多大的增量逆風。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll take the international question first. I mean, we can -- the international markets continue to grow drive a lot of the growth for our -- for our company. I think you all know that Europe has been weaker for quite a while. And there, if you go to takeaway trends in Europe, if you just look at spirit's takeaway, they're kind of similar to what you're seeing in the United States. And so still very difficult markets.

    我先回答國際問題。我的意思是,我們可以-國際市場持續成長,為我們公司帶來很大的成長。我想大家都知道,歐洲已經衰弱了相當長一段時間了。如果你關注歐洲的外賣趨勢,如果你只看 Spirit 的外賣,你會發現它們與你在美國看到的外賣有點相似。因此市場仍然非常困難。

  • They're kind of down in that low to mid-single-digit range. And so we will see how that plays out. We continue to take share in many, many markets across Europe, and they continue to be an important part of our company and a big part of our company.

    它們處於低至中等個位數的範圍內。我們將拭目以待事情將如何發展。我們繼續在歐洲的許多市場中佔據份額,它們繼續成為我們公司的重要組成部分,也是我們公司的重要組成部分。

  • But as we said earlier, I mean, the emerging markets, call Latin America and Mexico, in particular, are very strong for Brown-Forman and continue to be highlight markets. We've been -- particularly Brazil, we've been talking about that for a long time.

    但正如我們之前所說,新興市場,尤其是拉丁美洲和墨西哥,對 Brown-Forman 來說非常強勁,並且繼續成為亮點市場。我們——特別是巴西——已經談論這個問題很久了。

  • And we're seeing pockets of growth in other parts of Asia and in other emerging markets. And so it's Europe that we need to get turned around, and we've made a lot of changes in some route-to-consumer changes there and expectations or that, that will improve over the next year.

    我們也看到亞洲其他地區和其他新興市場也出現了成長跡象。因此,我們需要扭轉歐洲的局面,並且我們已經對那裡的一些消費者路線做出了許多改變,預計明年情況將會改善。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And then from a Korbel perspective or from our guidance perspective related to Korbel, in our organic results, our organic P&L, we will have May and June included in that from -- then excluded from that point forward. And then from a reported perspective, it will exclude Korbel from May, June -- sorry, July 1 forward. And that's a -- at $94 million on our S&S top line and then about $12 million in operating income on the bottom line that will cut out of the reported P&L.

    然後從 Korbel 的角度或與 Korbel 相關的指導角度來看,在我們的有機結果、有機損益表中,我們將從那時開始將 5 月和 6 月納入 - 然後從那時開始將其排除在外。然後從報導的角度來看,從 5 月、6 月(抱歉,是 7 月 1 日)起,科貝爾將被排除在外。這就是說,我們的 S&S 營業收入為 9,400 萬美元,而底線營業收入約為 1,200 萬美元,這將從報告的損益表中扣除。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Due to time, this will conclude the Q&A session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Sue for closing remarks.

    由於時間原因,問答環節就此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給蘇,請她做最後發言。

  • Sue Perram - Director of Investor Relations

    Sue Perram - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. And thank you, Lawson and Leanne, and thank you to everyone for joining us today for Brown-Forman's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 Earnings Call. If you have any additional questions, please contact us.

    謝謝。謝謝 Lawson 和 Leanne,也謝謝大家今天參加 Brown-Forman 2025 財年第四季和財報電話會議。如果您還有其他問題,請與我們聯絡。

  • As we close National Bourbon Day, it's June 14. It's the day to recognize the official spirit of the United States. And on this day, wherever you are, we hope that you will responsibly enjoy a glass of Old Forester or Woodford Reserve with us.

    全國波本威士忌日即將結束,時間是 6 月 14 日。這是表彰美國官方精神的日子。在這一天,無論您身在何處,我們都希望您能與我們一起負責任地享用一杯 Old Forester 或 Woodford Reserve。

  • With that, this concludes today's call.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,您現在可以斷開連接了。