Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.A) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Brown-Forman third-quarter and year-to-date fiscal year 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    您好,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加布朗-福曼公司 2026 財年第三季及年初至今的業績電話會議。(操作人員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Sue Perram, Vice President, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我謹將會議交給今天的第一位發言人,投資者關係副總裁兼總監 Sue Perram。請繼續。

  • Susanne Perram - Vice President, Director Investor Relations

    Susanne Perram - Vice President, Director Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I would like to thank each of you for joining us today for Brown-Forman's third-quarter and year-to-date fiscal year 2026 earnings call. Joining me today are Lawson Whiting, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Leanne Cunningham, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝大家,大家早安。我謹代表布朗-福曼公司感謝各位今天參加本公司2026財年第三季及年初至今的業績電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有總裁兼執行長勞森‧惠廷,以及執行副總裁兼財務長莉安‧坎寧安。

  • This morning's conference call contains forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Numerous risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in these statements. Many of the factors that will determine future results are beyond the company's ability to control or predict. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. And except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any of these statements whether due to new information, future events or otherwise.

    今天上午的電話會議包含基於我們目前預期的前瞻性陳述。諸多風險和不確定因素可能導致實際結果與這些聲明中預期或預測的結果有重大差異。決定未來業績的許多因素超出了公司的控製或預測能力。您不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述。除法律另有規定外,本公司不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新任何聲明的義務。

  • This morning, we issued a press release containing our results for the third quarter and nine months ended January 31, 2026, in addition to posting presentation materials that Lawson and Leanne will walk through momentarily. Both the release and the presentation can be found on our website under the section titled Investors, Events & Presentations.

    今天上午,我們發布了一份新聞稿,其中包含了截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日的第三季度和前九個月的業績,此外還發布了演示材料,勞森和莉安稍後將進行講解。新聞稿和簡報均可在我們的網站「投資者、活動和簡報」欄位下找到。

  • In the press release, we have listed a number of the risk factors that you should consider in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. Other significant risk factors are described in our 2025 Form 10-K and from time to time in our Form 10-Q reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    在新聞稿中,我們列出了一些您在閱讀我們的前瞻性聲明時應該考慮的風險因素。其他重大風險因素已在我們的 2025 年 10-K 表格以及不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 表格報告中進行了描述。

  • During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures, a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and the reasons management believes they provide useful information to investors regarding the company's financial condition and results of operations are contained in the press release and investor presentation.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將討論一些非GAAP財務指標。這些措施、與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調節表以及管理層認為這些措施能夠為投資者提供有關公司財務狀況和經營業績的有用信息的原因,都包含在新聞稿和投資者演示文稿中。

  • With that, I would like to turn the call over to Lawson.

    接下來,我想把電話交給勞森。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Sue, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to share our third quarter and year-to-date fiscal 2026 results with you today. First, I'll share the key drivers and highlights of our top line results, including our geographic performance and strategic innovation. Then I'll turn it over to Leanne who will share additional insights on other financial metrics, including gross margin and operating expenses and our full year fiscal 2026 outlook, which we have reaffirmed.

    謝謝你,蘇,大家早安。今天我很高興與大家分享我們2026財年第三季和年初至今的業績。首先,我將分享我們業績的主要驅動因素和亮點,包括我們的地域表現和策略創新。接下來,我將把發言權交給 Leanne,她將分享更多關於其他財務指標的見解,包括毛利率和營運費用,以及我們重申的 2026 財年全年展望。

  • In general, the key themes we'll share today are very consistent with what we shared in our last several earnings calls as market conditions have remained largely unchanged. In the current operating environment, which has been challenging and uncertain for some time now, I consider this to be positive.

    總的來說,由於市場狀況基本上保持不變,我們今天要分享的關鍵主題與我們最近幾次財報電話會議中分享的內容非常一致。在當前充滿挑戰和不確定性的經營環境下,我認為這是一件好事。

  • Our global footprint shows a clear divergence in consumer behavior. While macro uncertainty continues to pressure discretionary spending in the US in many developed markets, we see significantly stronger, more resilient consumer trends in key emerging international markets and the travel retail channel.

    我們的全球佈局顯示出消費者行為的明顯差異。儘管宏觀經濟的不確定性繼續為美國和許多已開發市場的可自由支配支出帶來壓力,但我們看到,在主要的新興國際市場和旅遊零售管道,消費趨勢明顯更加強勁、更具韌性。

  • As we've shared in previous calls, used barrel sales and the trade dispute between the US and Canada are persistent headwinds that continue to have a significant negative impact on our year-to-date organic net sales and organic operating income. While we expect the cyclical headwinds to eventually subside, we recognize the highly dynamic nature of our industry and acknowledge that some of the current pressures could persist. Therefore, our primary focus remains squarely on actively managing the factors within our control.

    正如我們在先前的電話會議中分享的那樣,二手油桶銷售和美國與加拿大之間的貿易爭端是持續存在的不利因素,繼續對我們今年迄今為止的有機淨銷售額和有機營業收入產生重大負面影響。雖然我們預期週期性不利因素最終會消退,但我們也認識到我們所處行業的高度動態性,並承認當前的一些壓力可能會持續存在。因此,我們的首要任務仍然是積極管理我們可控範圍內的因素。

  • Moving to our year-to-date fiscal 2026 top line performance. For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, reported net sales declined 2%, with organic net sales flat after adjusting for the unfavorable impact related to the absence of Korbel and Sonoma-Cutrer as well as the positive effect of foreign exchange.

    接下來來看看我們截至 2026 財年的營收業績。2026 財年前九個月,報告淨銷售額下降 2%,經調整 Korbel 和 Sonoma-Cutrer 的缺席帶來的不利影響以及外匯的正面影響後,有機淨銷售額持平。

  • From a geographic perspective, our organic net sales results continued to be led by the emerging international markets and travel retail channel, both improved sequentially from the first half results, delivering 15% and 7% growth, respectively, in the year-to-date period. In our emerging international markets, Mexico and Brazil continue to lead our performance, delivering strong double-digit growth.

    從地理角度來看,我們的有機淨銷售額繼續由新興國際市場和旅遊零售通路引領,這兩個通路的業績均較上半年有所改善,今年迄今分別實現了 15% 和 7% 的成長。在我們新興的國際市場中,墨西哥和巴西繼續引領我們的業績,實現了強勁的兩位數成長。

  • In Mexico, organic net sales grew 15%, driven by new mix, which led the accelerating RTD category in Mexico, gaining market share and benefiting from consumer trends of flavor, convenience and value, particularly as the economic environment remains under pressure. In Brazil, organic net sales grew more than 20% in the year-to-date period.

    在墨西哥,有機淨銷售額增長了 15%,這得益於新的產品組合,從而帶動了墨西哥即飲飲料品類的加速增長,獲得了市場份額,並受益於消費者對口味、便利性和價值的追求,尤其是在經濟環境持續承壓的情況下。在巴西,今年迄今的有機淨銷售額成長超過 20%。

  • Our strategic approach to building the Jack Daniel's family of brands through thoughtful geographic expansion, increased distribution and targeted revenue growth management strategies continues to produce strong results. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire each grew organic net sales at a strong double-digit rate and maintained market share.

    我們透過深思熟慮的地理擴張、擴大分銷管道和有針對性的收入成長管理策略來打造傑克丹尼品牌家族的策略方法,持續取得強勁的成果。傑克丹尼田納西蘋果味威士忌、傑克丹尼田納西威士忌和傑克丹尼田納西火焰味威士忌的有機淨銷售額均實現了強勁的兩位數增長,並保持了市場份額。

  • As we have mentioned previously, we also believe that premiumization is an opportunity in Brazil and are focused on increasing distribution for our super-premium whiskey portfolio, which resulted in strong double-digit organic net sales growth for Woodford Reserve and Gentleman Jack.

    正如我們之前提到的,我們也認為高端化在巴西是一個機遇,我們專注於擴大超高端威士忌產品組合的分銷,這使得 Woodford Reserve 和 Gentleman Jack 的有機淨銷售額實現了強勁的兩位數增長。

  • The travel retail channel delivered growth across most of the major regions as we benefited not only from an increase in the number of travelers, but also from the strategic workforce restructuring that we implemented a year ago. The decision to restructure our travel retail team ensured that they are now more closely aligned to our global airport operators and growing transportation channels such as crews and airlines. The efficiency of our new structure also allows us to allocate additional resources to fast-growing regions in the Middle East and India.

    旅遊零售通路在大多數主要地區實現了成長,這不僅得益於遊客數量的增加,也得益於我們一年前實施的策略性勞動力重組。重組旅遊零售團隊的決定確保了他們現在與我們的全球機場營運商和不斷增長的運輸管道(如機組人員和航空公司)更加緊密地聯繫在一起。我們新結構的效率也使我們能夠將更多資源分配給中東和印度等快速成長的地區。

  • Now to our developed markets, which collectively declined by 6% in a particularly challenging environment. Canada, of all of our markets, continues to have the most significant impact on our organic results, declining nearly 60% as American-made products remain off shelves in the majority of the Canadian provinces.

    現在來談談我們的已開發市場,在環境尤其充滿挑戰的情況下,這些市場整體下滑了 6%。在我們所有的市場中,加拿大對我們的有機產品銷售業績的影響最大,由於美國製造的產品在加拿大大部分省份仍然缺貨,我們的有機產品銷售額下降了近 60%。

  • Turning to our developed Europe markets. The operating environment remains challenging due to sustained pressure on consumer sentiment and confidence across most European economies. Despite the environment, we are maintaining or gaining share of the whiskey category in 6 of our 8 top European markets.

    轉向我們發達的歐洲市場。由於歐洲大多數經濟體的消費者情緒和信心持續承壓,經營環境仍充滿挑戰。儘管環境不佳,但我們在 8 個歐洲主要市場中的 6 個市場中保持或擴大了威士忌品類的份額。

  • Our organic net sales declined 7% in Germany, where consumers are increasing their savings rates due to the challenging economic conditions, and total distilled spirits trends declined at a mid-single-digit rate, fueling heightened competitive promotional activity. We successfully gained further distribution, especially for our ready-to-drink portfolio within the discounter channel. This channel is key as it appeals to consumers who are looking for ways to stretch their budgets, demonstrating our growth even within the current economic climate.

    由於經濟形勢嚴峻,德國消費者提高了儲蓄率,導致我們的有機淨銷售額在德國下降了 7%,蒸餾酒總銷量也以中等個位數的速度下降,從而加劇了市場競爭和促銷活動。我們成功拓展了分銷管道,尤其是在折扣通路中,我們的即飲產品系列得到了進一步推廣。這個管道至關重要,因為它吸引了那些希望節省開支的消費者,這表明即使在當前的經濟環境下,我們仍然保持著成長。

  • In the UK, organic net sales declined 10%. Challenging category dynamics remain the most significant headwind as economic conditions, including increasing excise taxes, are negatively impacting consumer spending and TDS trends. Off-premise takeaway trends for total distilled spirits as well as the whiskey category remain in low single-digit decline, although trends continue to improve and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey continued to outperform the category and gain market share.

    在英國,有機淨銷售額下降了 10%。充滿挑戰的品類動態仍然是最大的不利因素,因為包括不斷上漲的消費稅在內的經濟狀況正在對消費者支出和 TDS 趨勢產生負面影響。儘管蒸餾酒和威士忌類別的非現場外賣趨勢仍在持續改善,但總體趨勢仍處於個位數低位下降,傑克丹尼田納西威士忌繼續表現優於同類產品,並獲得了市場份額。

  • Even amidst this backdrop, both Germany and the UK benefited from innovation with the strong launch of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry. Jack Daniel's has a proven track record of leveraging our global footprint and capabilities to extend the impact of new flavor launches, and we will continue executing our strategic phased launch to support scalable and sustainable geographic expansion for the next few years. To date, we have been very pleased with the early stages of the Blackberry launch.

    即使在這種情況下,德國和英國也都受益於創新,傑克丹尼田納西黑莓手機的強勢上市就是最好的例子。傑克丹尼在利用其全球佈局和能力擴大新口味上市的影響方面有著良好的記錄,我們將繼續執行我們的戰略分階段上市計劃,以支持未來幾年可擴展和可持續的地域擴張。到目前為止,我們對黑莓手機上市初期的進展非常滿意。

  • In addition to innovation, we're also benefiting from strategic route-to-consumer decisions we've made with strong growth coming from our most recently launched owned distribution markets of Italy and Japan. We've shared in the past that we believe owning our distribution enables us to deepen our collaboration with our trade partners, accelerate growth for our key super premium brands like Diplomatico Rum and Gin Mare and further strengthened the presence of our iconic American whiskey portfolio, led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands.

    除了創新之外,我們還受益於我們所做的策略性消費者通路決策,來自我們最近推出的義大利和日本自有分銷市場的強勁成長。我們過去曾表示,我們相信擁有自己的分銷管道能夠讓我們深化與貿易夥伴的合作,加速我們主要超高端品牌(如 Diplomatico 朗姆酒和 Gin Mare 金酒)的成長,並進一步加強我們標誌性的美國威士忌產品組合(以 Jack Daniel's 品牌家族為首)的市場地位。

  • Year to date, Italy delivered very strong double-digit organic net sales growth, driven by Gin Mare, Italy's number one super-premium gin value, and Diplomatico, the number three super-premium plus rum by value. We also experienced growth across the majority of the remaining brands in our portfolio in Italy, including strong double-digit growth from the Jack Daniel's family of brands.

    今年迄今為止,義大利實現了非常強勁的兩位數有機淨銷售額成長,這主要得益於義大利排名第一的超高階金酒品牌 Gin Mare 和排名第三的超高階蘭姆酒品牌 Diplomatico。我們在義大利的其餘大部分品牌也實現了成長,其中傑克丹尼 (Jack Daniel's) 系列品牌實現了強勁的兩位數成長。

  • In Japan, our strategic decision to distribute the William Grant & Sons portfolio of brands combines our renowned spirits portfolios, scales our business in Japan, reinforces our standing with local customers and further strengthened our commitment to long-term growth and innovation in the world's third-largest whiskey market.

    在日本,我們經銷 William Grant & Sons 旗下品牌的策略決策,將我們著名的烈酒產品組合整合在一起,擴大了我們在日本的業務規模,鞏固了我們在當地客戶中的地位,並進一步加強了我們對世界第三大威士忌市場長期增長和創新的承諾。

  • Now to the United States, where total distilled spirits continued to decline at a low single-digit rate. Our organic net sales declined 1% in the year-to-date period and remained ahead of both of our depletion-based results and takeaway trends, driven by the benefit from our US distributor changes and the impact of innovation.

    現在來看美國,蒸餾酒的總銷售量繼續以個位數的低速度下降。今年迄今為止,我們的有機淨銷售額下降了 1%,但仍高於我們基於消耗量的結果和外賣趨勢,這得益於我們美國分銷商的變化和創新的影響。

  • With regard to our distributor changes, we're also recognizing the benefits of enhanced dedication and focus, increased distributor investment funds and an improved margin structure. Innovation has been one of the most impactful growth drivers within total distilled spirits, and we have seen continued excitement and outstanding consumer engagement for our newest brand, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry.

    關於我們的經銷商變更,我們也意識到增強專注度和投入度、增加經銷商投資資金和改善利潤結構所帶來的好處。創新一直是蒸餾酒行業最具影響力的成長驅動力之一,我們看到消費者對我們最新品牌傑克丹尼田納西黑莓酒的持續熱情和出色參與度。

  • The launch of Blackberry continued to exceed expectations and is the second largest new product by value within total distilled spirits in Nielsen. As anticipated, shipments still exceed depletions, though the gap between the two continued to narrow as we moved through the year-to-date period. We remain encouraged by the strong launch in the US and are capitalizing on this excitement to maintain momentum and boost consumer takeaway.

    黑莓酒的上市持續超出預期,在尼爾森的蒸餾酒銷售數據中,它是價值第二高的新產品。正如預期的那樣,出貨量仍然超過消耗量,儘管隨著年初至今的推進,兩者之間的差距繼續縮小。我們對在美國的強勁上市表現感到鼓舞,並正利用這種熱情來保持勢頭,提高消費者購買量。

  • In addition to innovation, RTDs are the other growth driver within total distilled spirits and there has been quite a bit of activity within our RTD portfolio. First, launching New Mix, Mexico's original tequila RTD, in the US is an opportunity for us to connect with Mexican-American consumers through a highly recognizable brand while simultaneously introducing new consumers to the world's first tequila-based RTD.

    除了創新之外,即飲烈酒是整個蒸餾酒市場的另一個成長驅動力,我們的即飲烈酒產品組合也相當活躍。首先,在美國推出墨西哥原產龍舌蘭即飲飲料 New Mix,讓我們有機會透過一個知名度很高的品牌與墨西哥裔美國消費者建立聯繫,同時也將世界上第一款以龍舌蘭酒為基礎的即飲飲料介紹給新的消費者。

  • We are currently testing two flavors in a limited number of states with a focus on growing distribution and awareness, before expanding more broadly. While still limited, we believe the initial launch is off to a strong start and look forward to providing you with future updates.

    我們目前正在少數州測試兩種口味,重點是擴大分銷範圍和提高知名度,然後再逐步擴大規模。雖然目前仍存在一些局限性,但我們相信此次發布取得了良好的開端,並期待在未來為您提供更新資訊。

  • Earlier this week, we announced the mutual agreement to conclude our partnership with Pabst Brewing Company, who has managed the supply, sales and distribution of Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails within the United States and domestic military markets since fiscal 2021. The partnership provided us with greater access to production and variety pack capabilities, along with more efficient access to new distribution channels, and we would like to thank Pabst for the role they have played in helping successfully drive the growth of Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails and in introducing new innovation over the past five years.

    本週早些時候,我們宣布與 Pabst Brewing Company 達成共識,結束合作關係。自 2021 財年以來,Pabst Brewing Company 一直負責 Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails 在美國和國內軍事市場的供應、銷售和分銷。此次合作使我們獲得了更大的生產和多樣化包裝能力,以及更有效地進入新的分銷管道的機會。我們感謝 Pabst 在過去五年中為成功推動 Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails 的成長和引入新的創新所發揮的作用。

  • Ultimately, as we evolved our US distribution network earlier this year and reviewed our long-term growth strategy, we now believe, by centralizing direction of our flavored malt beverage portfolio, we can more effectively unlock its potential and long-term valuation. We are working closely with Pabst on a comprehensive transition plan to ensure seamless product availability for retailers and distributors through the end of the agreement.

    最終,隨著我們今年稍早對美國分銷網絡的改進以及對長期成長策略的審查,我們現在相信,透過集中管理我們的風味麥芽飲料產品組合,我們可以更有效地釋放其潛力和長期價值。我們正與 Pabst 密切合作,制定全面的過渡計劃,以確保在協議結束前,零售商和分銷商能夠無縫獲得產品。

  • In summary, as we navigate the dynamic and challenging operating environment, we remain focused on actively managing the factors within our control. We continue to act swiftly and make key strategic decisions, including innovating and focusing on our Premium Plus brands and ready-to-drink offerings to strengthen our brand portfolio and align with current consumer trends, making key route to consumer transitions, including in the US, Japan and Italy, and streamlining our workforce structure to increase our agility, leverage synergies and enhance our way of working with a clear goal to accelerate our growth in an increasingly challenging and competitive environment.

    總之,在應對瞬息萬變且充滿挑戰的經營環境時,我們將始終專注於積極管理我們可控的因素。我們將繼續迅速行動並做出關鍵戰略決策,包括創新和專注於我們的高端品牌和即飲產品,以加強我們的品牌組合併順應當前的消費趨勢,制定關鍵的消費者轉型路線,包括在美國、日本和義大利,並精簡我們的員工結構,以提高我們的靈活性,利用協同效應,並改善我們的工作方式,以在日益具有挑戰性和競爭力的環境中加速為目標。

  • Through the nine months of fiscal 2026, our team has demonstrated exceptional resilience and focus and has executed our plans despite the challenging backdrop. As such, our results are largely in line with our expectations, and we believe we remain well positioned to achieve our full year guidance. I would like to thank each Brown-Forman employee for their contributions to these results. I know this is a challenging time and I deeply appreciate the commitment and dedication each of you continues to demonstrate.

    在 2026 財年的前九個月裡,我們的團隊展現出了非凡的韌性和專注力,並在充滿挑戰的環境下執行了我們的計畫。因此,我們的業績基本上符合預期,我們相信我們仍有能力實現全年業績目標。我要感謝布朗-福曼公司的每一位員工為取得這些成果所做的貢獻。我知道現在是充滿挑戰的時期,我非常感謝你們每個人一直以來所展現的奉獻和敬業精神。

  • So before I conclude my remarks, I also want to provide an update on our CFO recruitment process, which is in active discussions now. While we are always incredibly thoughtful in our approach to talent and succession, we have intentionally focused our search on potential candidates who possess both depth and breadth of leadership experience across finance and operations and publicly-traded multinational organizations.

    在我結束演講之前,我還想就我們目前正在積極討論的財務長招募流程提供最新進展。雖然我們在人才培育和繼任計畫方面一直非常謹慎,但我們特意將搜尋重點放在那些在財務、營運和上市跨國組織中擁有深厚領導經驗的潛在候​​選人身上。

  • As we look to accelerate growth in key emerging markets, experienced leading business segments outside of the US is also a key consideration. While the process has taken a bit longer than we originally preferred, I feel very good about where we are at this point and appreciate the role that Leanne will continue to play between now and her retirement date at the end of the fiscal year, ensuring a smooth transition.

    當我們尋求加速在關鍵新興市場的成長時,美國以外經驗豐富的領先業務部門也是一個重要的考慮因素。雖然這個過程比我們最初預想的要長一些,但我對我們目前的進展感到非常滿意,並感謝 Leanne 從現在到本財年末退休這段時間將繼續發揮的作用,以確保平穩過渡。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Leanne.

    接下來,我將把電話交給莉安。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Lawson, and good morning, everyone. As Lawson mentioned, I will provide additional insights on other financial highlights, including gross margin, operating expenses and capital allocation, concluding our prepared remarks with comments on our full year fiscal 2026 outlook.

    謝謝你,勞森,大家早安。正如勞森所提到的,我將就其他財務亮點提供更多見解,包括毛利率、營運費用和資本配置,並在我們準備好的發言結束時,對我們 2026 財年的全年展望發表評論。

  • First, to our gross margin. In the year-to-date period of fiscal 2026, our reported gross profit decreased 1%, resulting in a reported gross margin of 59.9%. Our gross margin expanded 50 basis points due to a 160 basis points A&D benefit, largely related to the conclusion of our relationship with Korbel and the absence of the prior year transition services agreement for Sonoma-Cutrer and a 30 basis points favorable impact from foreign exchange.

    首先,我們來看毛利率。截至 2026 財年年初,我們報告的毛利下降了 1%,導致報告的毛利率為 59.9%。由於 A&D 收益 160 基點,我們的毛利率增長了 50 基點,這主要與我們與 Korbel 的合作關係結束以及上一年 Sonoma-Cutrer 過渡服務協議的取消有關,此外,外匯匯率也帶來了 30 基點的有利影響。

  • These benefits were partially offset by 90 basis points of higher costs, largely due to lower production levels, inflation on our input costs and timing of cost fluctuations, and 40 basis points of unfavorable price/mix due to the strong growth of New Mix and lower used barrel sales.

    這些收益部分被成本上漲 90 個基點所抵消,這主要是由於產量下降、投入成本上漲以及成本波動的時間因素;此外,由於新混合產品強勁增長和二手桶銷量下降,價格/組合不利,也造成了 40 個基點的損失。

  • Turning to operating expenses. In the year-to-date period, organic advertising expense decreased 2%, which is largely aligned with our depletion-based top line results. Our brand investment remains at what we believe to be a healthy level, and we continue to focus on Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey to support the That's What Makes Jack, JACK global campaign as well as the launch of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry.

    接下來談談營運費用。今年迄今為止,有機廣告支出下降了 2%,這與我們基於消耗的營收結果基本一致。我們品牌投資仍處於我們認為的健康水平,我們將繼續專注於傑克丹尼田納西威士忌,以支持「這就是傑克丹尼的魅力所在」全球推廣活動以及傑克丹尼田納西黑莓手機的上市。

  • As expected, the majority of fiscal 2026 brand investment occurred during the key selling months of October, November and December. Our organic SG&A investment decreased 2% as a result of our strategic workforce restructuring initiative that we implemented in January of 2025.

    正如預期的那樣,2026 財年的大部分品牌投資都發生在 10 月、11 月和 12 月這幾個關鍵的銷售月份。由於我們在 2025 年 1 月實施了策略性勞動力重組計劃,我們的有機銷售、一般及行政費用投資減少了 2%。

  • In total, reported operating income was flat and organic operating income decreased 3% year-to-date fiscal 2026. Diluted earnings per share decreased 8% to $1.41 per share, which was largely driven by the absence of the prior year gain on the sale of the Duckhorn investment.

    總體而言,報告的營業收入與上年同期持平,有機營業收入下降了 3%(截至 2026 財年)。稀釋後每股收益下降 8% 至每股 1.41 美元,主要是由於上一年出售 Duckhorn 投資所得收益的缺失所致。

  • Turning to capital allocation, I'd like to take the opportunity to provide you with a few comments related to our capital allocation philosophy and recent actions before moving to our outlook. As we have shared, our philosophy balances ongoing investment in the business, including organic investments and acquisitions alongside shareholder returns as regular dividends, share repurchases and special dividends, with the core objective of sustainable long-term value creation.

    關於資本配置,我想藉此機會就我們的資本配置理念和近期舉措談幾點看法,然後再展望未來。正如我們先前所分享的,我們的理念是在持續投資業務(包括有機投資和收購)與股東回報(如定期分紅、股票回購和特別分紅)之間取得平衡,其核心目標是創造可持續的長期價值。

  • First, to our free cash flow, which we define as cash provided by operating activities less capital expenditures. We are diligent in ensuring there is a high level of working capital discipline throughout the organization. In the nine months of fiscal 2026, capital expenditures decreased by $36 million compared to the year-ago period. While we are continuing to fully invest behind our business, the reduction of our working capital requirements and improved cash generation is a result of a number of projects and expansions now being completed.

    首先,我們來看自由現金流,我們定義為經營活動所產生的現金減去資本支出。我們盡力確保整個組織保持高度的營運資金紀律。2026 財年前九個月,資本支出比去年同期減少了 3,600 萬美元。雖然我們仍在全力投資於我們的業務,但營運資金需求的減少和現金流的改善是由於一些專案和擴張計劃的完成。

  • We grew cash flow from operations by $263 million to $709 million, primarily reflecting this disciplined working capital management. As you can see on Schedule E of our earnings release, free cash flow increased by $299 million to $628 million, reflecting strong operating cash flow generation and lower capital expenditure needs.

    我們經營活動產生的現金流增加了 2.63 億美元,達到 7.09 億美元,這主要反映了我們嚴格的營運資本管理。正如您在我們收益報告的附表 E 中看到的那樣,自由現金流增加了 2.99 億美元,達到 6.28 億美元,這反映了強勁的經營現金流產生和較低的資本支出需求。

  • Secondly, on October 2, 2025, the Brown-Forman Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to $400 million of our outstanding shares of Class A and Class B common stock. And this program was concluded in December 2025. Our balance sheet remains strong, and we continue to strengthen our cash position.

    其次,2025 年 10 月 2 日,布朗福曼董事會授權回購最多 4 億美元的已發行 A 類和 B 類普通股。該計畫於 2025 年 12 月結束。我們的資產負債表依然穩健,我們將繼續增強現金儲備。

  • Now to our full 2026 outlook, which, as Lawson shared, we are reaffirming. The spirits sector continues to face headwinds, and we continue to expect the consumer behavior and the level of trade inventories will not change meaningfully during the remainder of our fiscal year 2026. Our guidance also continues to assume that there will be no change to the current tariff impact, direct and indirect, on our products.

    現在來說說我們對 2026 年的全面展望,正如勞森所說,我們重申了這項展望。烈酒產業持續面臨逆風,我們預計在 2026 財年剩餘時間內,消費者行為和貿易庫存水準不會發生實質變化。我們的指導意見仍然假設,目前關稅對我們產品的直接和間接影響不會改變。

  • Our expectations from a geographic perspective remain the same as well, with continued growth in our emerging markets and the travel retail channel and expected depletion-based trends in the US and developed international markets to remain similar to fiscal 2025, with the exception of Canada. While we remain hopeful for the return of American products to Canadian store shelves, we continue to assume American spirits products will remain off the shelf across most of Canada for our full fiscal year. And that expectation is reflected in our fiscal 2026 guidance.

    從地理角度來看,我們的預期也保持不變,新興市場和旅遊零售通路將持續成長,美國和已開發國際市場的預期消耗趨勢將與 2025 財年類似,加拿大除外。雖然我們仍然希望美國產品能夠重返加拿大商店的貨架,但我們仍然認為,在整個財政年度內,美國烈酒產品在加拿大大部分地區仍將缺貨。這項預期也體現在我們的 2026 財年業績指引中。

  • Another significant headwind is the year-over-year impact of our used barrel sales. The challenging and uncertain operating environment faced by the entire spirits industry has reduced the demand for used barrels and consequently also put downward pressure onto pricing. Therefore, we continue to expect used barrel sales to be lower by more than half of the fiscal 2025 level.

    另一個重大不利因素是二手桶銷售額較去年同期下降的影響。整個烈酒產業面臨的充滿挑戰和不確定性的經營環境降低了對二手酒桶的需求,從而也給價格帶來了下行壓力。因此,我們仍然預期二手油桶銷量將比 2025 財年水準下降一半以上。

  • These two headwinds negatively impacted our organic net sales results by more than 2 points in the year-to-date period. While we continue to execute our long-term pricing strategy and expect to benefit from our revenue growth management activities and strategic innovation, particularly Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry, we anticipate product mix headwinds due to faster growth of our RTD portfolio.

    今年迄今為止,這兩個不利因素對我們的有機淨銷售額產生了超過 2 個百分點的負面影響。儘管我們繼續執行長期定價策略,並期望從收入成長管理活動和策略創新中受益,特別是傑克丹尼田納西黑莓威士忌,但我們預計由於即飲產品組合的快速增長,產品組合將面臨不利因素。

  • Also, as you can see on Schedule B of the earnings release, even as the activities to support our US distributor network moves beyond the phasing impact of the transitions and the launch of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry concludes, we anticipate that shipments will roughly be in line with depletions in fiscal 2026.

    此外,正如您在收益報告的附錄 B 中看到的那樣,即使支持我們美國分銷商網絡的活動已經度過了過渡期的影響,並且傑克丹尼田納西黑莓手機的推出也已結束,我們預計 2026 財年的出貨量將大致與消耗量持平。

  • For fiscal 2026, based on the year-to-date results and the currently known factors, we reaffirm a low single-digit decline in organic net sales, guiding closer to the stronger end of the range and reported gross margin expansion as we believe the benefit from A&D will more than offset the headwinds from the negative price mix and higher costs. As we shared, the conclusion of the transition services agreement, which followed the Sonoma-Cutrer divestiture, and the absence of Korbel, has positively impacted our reported gross margin on a year-over-year basis.

    2026 財年,根據年初至今的業績和目前已知的因素,我們重申有機淨銷售額將出現個位數低幅下降,預計接近預期範圍的較高水平,並預計毛利率將有所增長,因為我們相信 A&D 帶來的收益將足以抵消不利的價格組合和更高的成本帶來的不利影響。正如我們之前所說,在 Sonoma-Cutrer 剝離之後達成的過渡服務協議,以及 Korbel 的缺席,對我們報告的毛利率產生了同比積極影響。

  • While input costs in fiscal 2026 will continue to benefit from lower agave cost, we project higher costs compared to the prior year period, largely driven by the impact of inflation and lower production volumes. I would like to take a moment to expand on cost pressures.

    雖然 2026 財年的投入成本將繼續受益於龍舌蘭成本的下降,但我們預計成本將比去年同期更高,這主要是由於通貨膨脹和產量下降的影響。我想花點時間詳細談談成本壓力。

  • As you are aware, our portfolio is heavily weighted to American whiskey. We plan to liquidate aging barrels in the coming years that were produced during the hyperinflationary years of the early 2020s where we faced significant cost increases for barrels, grain, energy as well as general inflation. While we have taken strategic steps to optimize our wood supply chain in response to these rising costs, due to the aging of most of our products, the impact of these recent actions will take time to come through our results. Therefore, we expect the cost pressures associated with our barreled whiskey to persist.

    如您所知,我們的產品組合中美國威士忌佔了很大比例。我們計劃在未來幾年內清算那些在 2020 年代初惡性通貨膨脹時期生產的舊酒桶,當時酒桶、穀物、能源以及一般通貨膨脹的成本都大幅上漲。雖然我們已經採取了策略措施來優化木材供應鏈以應對不斷上漲的成本,但由於我們的大多數產品都已老化,這些近期舉措的影響需要一段時間才能體現在我們的結果中。因此,我們預計與桶裝威士忌相關的成本壓力將持續存在。

  • Turning to our outlook for organic operating expenses. While our long-term goal is to align A&P spend with depletion-based top line growth, our fiscal 2026 A&P investment reflects our focus on managing controllable expenses and compares to the accelerated advertising spend incurred during the year-ago period of fiscal 2025. We also continue to expect a reduction in SG&A following our strategic workforce restructuring initiative.

    接下來,我們展望一下有機營運費用。雖然我們的長期目標是使廣告和促銷支出與基於消耗的營收成長保持一致,但我們 2026 財年的廣告和促銷投資反映了我們對控制可控支出的重視,並且與去年同期(2025 財年)加速成長的廣告支出相比,情況有所不同。我們也預計,隨著我們策略性勞動力重組計畫的實施,銷售、管理及行政費用將持續降低。

  • Based on the above, we are forecasting organic operating income to decline in the low single-digit range, guiding closer to the lower end of the range. We continue to expect our estimated capital expenditures will be in the range of $110 million to $120 million for the full fiscal year, guiding closer to the lower end of the range. We are updating our effective tax rate outlook from a range of approximately 21% to 23% to a range of approximately 19% to 21%.

    基於上述分析,我們預測有機營業收入將出現個位數百分比的下降,並預期最終結果將更接近該區間的下限。我們仍預期本財年的資本支出將在 1.1 億美元至 1.2 億美元之間,並傾向於接近該範圍的下限。我們將實際稅率預期從大約 21% 至 23% 的範圍調整為約 19% 至 21% 的範圍。

  • Again, our performance in the nine months of fiscal 2026 is largely in line with our expectation and provides us the confidence to reaffirm our full year 2026 outlook. We will continue to navigate the short-term challenges at pace to the strength of our portfolio, including strategic innovation, the benefits of our route-to-consumer transition, our evolved workforce structure and our strong balance sheet.

    再次強調,我們在 2026 財年前九個月的業績基本上符合預期,這使我們有信心重申我們對 2026 年全年的展望。我們將繼續憑藉我們強大的產品組合(包括策略創新、面向消費者的通路轉型帶來的好處、不斷完善的員工結構和強勁的資產負債表)快速應對短期挑戰。

  • We remain focused on delivering our near-term goals balanced against executing our long-term strategy to ensure the enduring success of Brown-Forman. With this being my final quarterly earnings call, I wanted to take a moment before we open the floor for questions to say thank you.

    我們將繼續專注於實現近期目標,同時兼顧長期策略的執行,以確保布朗-福曼公司的持續成功。由於這是我最後一次季度財報電話會議,在開放提問環節之前,我想花一點時間向大家表達感謝。

  • Thank you to my exceptional teammates at Brown-Forman that I have had the honor of working and growing with over the last 30 years. Thank you to the Brown family for entrusting this management team with your investment and your long-term stewardship of this exceptional company. And thank you to all of our investors and analysts for your many questions and hours of dialogue and for your interest in Brown-Forman. I look forward to continuing to be a long-term shareholder, a brand ambassador and a proud consumer of our highest-quality premium-plus portfolio in my next chapter.

    感謝我在布朗-福曼公司傑出的隊友們,在過去的30年裡,我有幸與他們一起工作、共同成長。感謝布朗家族對本管理團隊的信任,將投資和對這家卓越公司的長期管理託付給我們。感謝所有投資人和分析師提出許多問題,與我們進行長時間的交流,並感謝你們對布朗-福曼公司的關注。我期待在人生的下一個階段繼續擔任長期股東、品牌大使以及我們最高品質高端產品組合的忠實消費者。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks. Please open the line for questions.

    我們的發言稿到此結束。請開通提問專線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Filippo Falorni, Citi.

    Filippo Falorni,花旗銀行。

  • Filippo Falorni - Analyst

    Filippo Falorni - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about the developed market business. Obviously, Lawson, you mentioned the challenges remain in the US and Europe. And one of your key competitor, key global competitor, mentioned the potential for price repositioning. So I'd love to hear your thoughts on like the pricing environment, the macro pressure that you're seeing in developed markets, and whether you will consider similar actions to try to stimulate volumes in those countries. Thank you.

    你好。各位早安。我想諮詢一下已開發市場業務的情況。顯然,勞森,你提到了美國和歐洲仍然存在挑戰。你們的一位主要競爭對手,一位主要的全球競爭對手,提到了價格重新定位的可能性。所以我很想聽聽您對定價環境、已開發市場面臨的宏觀壓力等方面的看法,以及您是否會考慮採取類似措施來刺激這些國家的銷售。謝謝。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. So let me take the sort of overall developed market first and then I'll speak to the pricing second. So look, in the world of developed markets, when you talk about the US, when we -- we obviously break US out separately from that. And so our developed markets, as you see in our earnings release, there are a few things, maybe one, big one right upfront is Canada.

    好的。那麼,我先談談整體已開發市場的情況,然後再談談定價問題。所以你看,在已開發市場的世界裡,當我們談到美國時,我們——我們顯然要把美國單獨拿出來討論。因此,正如您在我們的獲利報告中看到的那樣,我們的已開發市場存在一些問題,其中最重要的一個是加拿大。

  • So that's pulling those numbers down. And we're obviously still not selling in the vast majority of the provinces in Canada. So that is weighing on that quite a bit. But places like Europe in aggregate, I mean, it's not changed a lot over the last few quarters. It's weak. Particularly Germany and the UK are both tough markets, and those are big markets for us.

    所以這就拉低了這些數字。顯然,我們的產品仍然沒有銷往加拿大絕大多數省份。所以這件事對這件事的影響相當大。但像歐洲這樣的地方,總體而言,我的意思是,在過去的幾個季度並沒有太大的變化。它很弱。德國和英國都是競爭激烈的市場,但對我們來說,這兩個市場又非常重要。

  • But sort of low single digit down is the market. Now there's the positive of our European performances. I do know, our top 8 markets, we're gaining share in 6 out of 8, something like that. So it's not really a share story over there. It's just general spirits market weakness. But I think if you sort of looked across Europe, as I say, low single digit, honestly, it's better than the United States.

    但市場目前下跌幅度在個位數左右。這就是我們在歐洲賽場上表現的正面。我知道,在我們前八大市場中,有六個市場的份額都在成長,大概就是這樣。所以,那邊其實沒有什麼值得分享的故事。這只是酒類市場整體疲軟的表現。但我覺得,如果你放眼整個歐洲,就像我說的,感染率只有個位數,老實說,這比美國的情況好。

  • So to the US market itself, look, I know everyone analyzes it to death. We've got all the charts in the world to try to figure out and find the green shoots as to when we think the market's going to -- when is it going to turn around? I mean I think that's -- the reality is that the key for the industry right now is when are you going to start to see the US market turnaround.

    所以,就美國市場本身而言,我知道每個人都對它進行了深入分析。我們擁有世界上所有的圖表,試圖找出市場何時會好轉的跡象,以及市場何時會開始復甦。我的意思是,我認為——現實情況是,目前行業的關鍵在於美國市場何時才能開始好轉。

  • I know a lot of folks have focused on the result the last basically two months of Nielsen results. I always caution on sort of the shorter-term movements because there's just -- there can be a lot of noise in the shorter term. But if you're trying to find a green shoot, that is probably the best one to go look at right now. So now, it's still not great and you've got to think about it with RTDs and (inaudible) and all those kind of things. But it has -- I don't want to declare it's bottomed out. But over the last couple of months, the numbers have improved by a few points.

    我知道很多人最近兩個月都關注了尼爾森的收視率調查結果。我總是對短期走勢保持謹慎,因為短期內可能會有很多幹擾因素。但如果你想尋找一絲曙光,那這可能是目前最值得關注的地方。所以現在情況仍然不太好,你還得考慮 RTD 和(聽不清楚)以及所有這些類似的事情。但是它確實——我不想說它已經觸底反彈了。但在過去幾個月裡,這些數字有所改善。

  • Pricing, and I obviously note -- there's a difference between, by the way, the term price reposition versus just good -- not good, old-fashioned -- bad, old-fashioned, increased discounting. So a few things on that. I mean repositioning brands down is a very different challenge for some companies. But I would use el Jimador for Brown-Forman, we didn't reposition down. We repositioned up. And that can be a trying experience trying to go up, but it is something that we've done much more than the other way around. In fact, I can't really think of an example of repositioning down.

    定價方面,我顯然注意到——順便說一句,價格重新定位和好的——不是好的,老式的——壞的,老式的,增加折扣是有區別的。關於這一點,有幾點需要說明。我的意思是,對某些公司來說,重新調整品牌定位是一個截然不同的挑戰。但我會用 el Jimador 來指 Brown-Forman,我們沒有向下調整位置。我們向上調整了位置。向上攀登可能是一段充滿挑戰的經歷,但我們向上攀登的次數遠比向下攀登的次數多得多。事實上,我真的想不出向下重新定位的例子。

  • But if you look at TDS right now in the United States, I think the last number we saw of TDS is down about 1 point from a pricing perspective. I don't know if that's better than we expected or not. It's a little bit worse than it was six months ago or so. But it's still only 1 point down, and tequila is sort of leading that down a little bit. I think everybody has been predicting that for a while. But I will say Brown-Forman is less than 0.5 point down.

    但如果你看看美國目前的 TDS 情況,我認為從定價角度來看,我們看到的 TDS 最新數據下降了約 1 個百分點。我不知道這是否比我們預期的要好。情況比六個月前稍微糟糕。但目前只落後 1 分,而龍舌蘭酒在某種程度上導致了這一差距的拉大。我認為大家早就預料到這一點了。但我必須說,布朗-福爾曼公司的跌幅不到0.5個百分點。

  • And so in terms of an outlook for a more aggressive market pricing environment, it hasn't come through yet. And I know everybody is looking at it, and they're looking at industry inventories and saying, we expect it's going to come. We feel pretty comfortable with our own inventory situation. We're not in the same place that some others are. And it is our intention to try to hold our ground as much as we can.

    因此,就更激烈的市場定價環境而言,這種情況尚未出現。我知道大家都在關注這件事,他們都在查看行業庫存,然後說,我們預計這種情況會發生。我們對自身的庫存狀況感到比較滿意。我們和其他人處境不同。我們的目標是盡我們所能守住陣地。

  • We're not going to be ignorant of sort of market trends, if we have to. But right now, we don't have to. I don't believe we have to. I don't think that would be the smart thing to do. And so we're going to hold as hard as we can.

    如果需要的話,我們不會無視市場趨勢。但現在,我們不必這樣做。我認為我們不必這樣做。我覺得那樣做並不明智。所以我們要盡力堅持下去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Drew Levine, JPM.

    Drew Levine,摩根大通。

  • Drew Levine - Analyst

    Drew Levine - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Leanne, congratulations on your upcoming retirement. I do want to ask on the gross margin commentary that you made at the end of the call. You mentioned some cost headwinds from higher cost inventory, I guess, coming through over the next couple of years.

    嘿,早安。莉安,恭喜你即將退休。我想問一下您在電話會議結束時提到的毛利率問題。您提到未來幾年庫存成本上升會帶來一些成本方面的不利因素,我想應該是這樣。

  • And this is in the context of, Lawson, the pricing environment that you just discussed, probably a little bit tougher than the goal of consistent low single-digit pricing. So maybe you could just help us out. Any other puts and takes we should consider looking over the next couple of years on gross margins as we think about potential expansion or contraction?

    勞森,這是在你剛才討論的定價環境下發生的,這可能比持續保持個位數低定價的目標要困難一些。所以,或許你們可以幫我們一個忙。在未來幾年考慮潛在的擴張或收縮時,我們還應該關注哪些與毛利率相關的其他賣出和賣出機會?

  • And then I did want to also ask on the US underlying sales, appear to be down around 5% in the quarter, which was pretty much in line with Nielsen. But I guess I'm wondering if you could sort of quantify any tailwinds you saw from the changes in distributor terms or Blackberry depletions as we think about the trend there? Thank you.

    然後我還想問一下美國的基本銷售額,似乎本季下降了約 5%,這與尼爾森的數據基本上一致。但我很想知道,您能否量化一下,從分銷商條款的變化或黑莓手機的損耗中,我們看到了哪些利好因素,以及這些因素如何影響我們看待這一趨勢?謝謝。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All right. Well, let me start on the gross margin and Leanne can talk a little bit about sort of more recent trends around underlying and organic. So I think the easiest way to explain the gross margin trend is, if you turn to slide 7 in the -- what do we call, the supplemental slides -- earnings presentation? Okay. That we have out there.

    好的。好,我先從毛利率說起,Leanne 可以談談最近關於基礎和有機產品的趨勢。所以我認為解釋毛利率趨勢的最簡單方法是,如果你翻到——我們稱之為補充幻燈片——收益簡報中的第 7 張幻燈片?好的。我們已經擁有了。

  • So take a look at the -- it's the gross -- it says gross margin expansion of 50 basis points, and it gives you the walk, the year-to-date walk. If you take a look at that, and then you'll see the acquisitions and divestitures, that's the Sonoma-Cutrer and Korbel changes. So take that out because that's not going to repeat into next fiscal year. And take out FX. And then just look across price/mix and cost.

    所以請看一下——這是毛利率——它顯示毛利率增長了 50 個基點,並且給出了年初至今的毛利率。如果你仔細看看,你會發現收購和剝離的情況,那就是索諾瑪-庫特勒和科貝爾的變化。所以把它刪掉,因為它不會延續到下一個財政年度。並剔除外匯。然後只需綜合考慮價格/組合和成本。

  • And the way that I think the easiest way for you all to sort of grasp directionally where we're going, I mean this is not intended to be sort of full guidance or anything like that, that we aren't ready to do that, but we do want to directionally get everyone an understanding of what we're going to see in terms of headwinds in the next little -- or in the next fiscal year.

    我認為,讓大家大致了解我們未來的發展方向的最簡單方法,我的意思是,這並不是要提供全面的指導或類似的東西,我們還沒有準備好這樣做,但我們確實希望讓大家大致了解在接下來的幾年——或者說下一個財政年度——我們將面臨的阻力。

  • So the price/mix down 0.4%. That's generally mix for the most part. We hope to get some of that offsetting. As I just said a second ago, that it's not that taking prices down. It is much more driven by brands like New Mix, which are going to be lower priced but are growing at a gigantic rate right now.

    因此價格/組合下降了0.4%。整體來說,大部分情況下都是混合的。我們希望能夠獲得一些抵消作用。正如我剛才所說,這並不是降低價格的問題。推動這一趨勢的主要是像 New Mix 這樣的品牌,這些品牌的價格較低,但目前正以驚人的速度成長。

  • And then costs. We expect costs, as Leanne did say, we got a couple of years of continued challenging costs around our barrels. And we know it because these are costs we incurred four or five years ago. And so they are going to roll through and then that will end and we would see some improvement from there. But just directionally, that's the kind of year-over-year challenge I think we're facing next year in terms of gross margin.

    然後是成本。正如莉安娜所說,我們預料到會有各種成本,未來幾年我們將繼續面臨各種挑戰性的成本。我們知道這一點,因為這些費用是四、五年前產生的。所以他們會經歷這個過程,然後就會結束,之後我們會看到一些改善。但就方向而言,我認為明年我們在毛利率方面將面臨同比挑戰。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And then to your second question, which was regarding the US, the underlying results for the quarter, how it relates to distributor terms and also how Blackberry. So what we would say is we are definitely seeing the positive impact of our distributor transition terms and the investments that they're making behind our brands. We're continuing to see that benefit come through, as well as for the transitions, we are seeing some impact with our emerging brands as the distributors focus on transitioning and ramping up our core SKUs, we are seeing some impact in the short term to our emerging brands. But we are working closely with our distributor partners on a day-by-day basis, and we expect that to normalize as we continue to go into future quarters.

    然後回答你的第二個問題,即關於美國市場,本季的基本業績,與經銷商條款的關係,以及黑莓的情況。因此,我們可以說,我們確實看到了分銷商過渡條款的正面影響,以及他們對我們的品牌的投資。我們持續看到這種好處顯現,同時,在過渡階段,由於經銷商專注於過渡和擴大我們的核心 SKU,我們的新興品牌也受到了一些影響,短期內我們的新興品牌也受到了一些影響。但我們正在與分銷合作夥伴密切合作,每天都在進行溝通,我們預計隨著未來幾季的推進,這種情況會逐漸恢復正常。

  • And then for Blackberry. Blackberry continues to do very well and exceed our expectations in the US and it's going to be a continued source of growth as we look into the future. And then, Lawson, I don't know if there's anything else you want to add to that.

    然後是黑莓手機。黑莓手機在美國市場持續表現優異,超越我們的預期,展望未來,它將繼續成為我們成長的來源。勞森,我不知道你還有什麼要補充的。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No. I think we're good.

    不。我覺得我們沒問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nadine Sarwat, Bernstein.

    Nadine Sarwat,Bernstein。

  • Nadine Sarwat - Equity Analyst

    Nadine Sarwat - Equity Analyst

  • Yes. Hi. Good morning, guys. Two for me. First, I'd like to push a little bit more on gross margin. So I know you guys called out two factors: mix headwinds from growing RTDs, and let's assume that stays with RTDs continuing on the trend that they are now as a category. And the second, the higher cost of whiskey to be sold through your P&L in the next coming years. So is it fair to assume that, all else being equal, you're looking at gross margin contraction on an organic basis over the coming years?

    是的。你好。各位早安。我兩個。首先,我想再深入探討一下毛利率。我知道你們提到了兩個因素:即飲飲料成長帶來的各種不利因素,假設即飲飲料持續維持目前的成長趨勢。第二,未來幾年威士忌銷售成本的增加將計入您的損益表。那麼,在其他條件不變的情況下,未來幾年毛利率是否會因自然成長而下降?

  • And then a second broader strategic question, great to see Blackberry being clearly accretive to your portfolio. I know one challenge that's often discussed with a strong flavor launch is the difficulty to lap that tough comp that comes the following year. So given your concentrated portfolio, and I know you touched on this briefly in the prepared remarks, but how are you thinking about that risk and avoiding that? And how are you looking at growth for Blackberry over the coming years?

    其次,還有一個更廣泛的策略問題,很高興看到黑莓明顯為你們的投資組合帶來了增值。我知道,對於一款熱門口味的上市,經常會討論的一個挑戰是,如何才能在第二年超越那些強勁的競爭對手。鑑於您的作品集較為集中,我知道您在準備好的發言稿中簡要地提到了這一點,那麼您是如何看待這種風險並避免這種風險的呢?您如何看待黑莓未來幾年的成長?

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Let me start out on the gross margin again. I mean I don't have a lot to add from what I just said a second ago. But yes, you -- I think you heard it right. We have something in the neighborhood of a two-year headwind around costs, around gross margin. So gross margin, we've been building in all of the many other assumptions for mix and pricing and all the other things in.

    讓我再從毛利率說起。我的意思是,除了剛才說的,我沒什麼要補充的了。但是,沒錯,你——我想你沒聽錯。我們面臨大約兩年的成本和毛利率方面的不利因素。所以,在計算毛利率時,我們已經把組合、定價以及其他各種因素的假設都考慮進去了。

  • Yeah, so I said sort of the conditions today, as we're looking out, yes, there's going to be somewhere between 100 and 150 basis points of some compression in there. I think that we're going to fight for it. And I said 0.4% of that is the mix that I showed on slide 7 and the other part is pure cost.

    是的,所以我說,就我們目前觀察的情況來看,今天的情況是,匯率可能會出現 100 到 150 個基點的壓縮。我認為我們會為之奮鬥。我說過,其中 0.4% 是我在第 7 張投影片上展示的混合物,其餘部分是純粹的成本。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. And I think that would go to your comment, Nadine, all other things being equal, and all of that work is not yet complete, but that could be a cost comment, that we would expect contraction. And then to the other part of your question as it relates to the gross -- RTDs impact on gross margin. From a price/mix perspective, we've got puts and takes there, as you would expect.

    是的。我認為這與你的評論有關,Nadine,在其他條件相同的情況下,雖然所有這些工作尚未完成,但這可能是一個成本方面的評論,我們預計會出現收縮。然後是關於毛利議題的另一部分──即飲飲料對毛利率的影響。從價格/組合的角度來看,正如你所預料的那樣,我們既有賣出也有賣出。

  • So in this year, we do have that really strong growth of New Mix that we're seeing, which is a headwind. But then we also have the really significant impact of the lower sales of the highly profitable used barrels. And again, as we look on a year-over-year basis, as we look out to the future, you wouldn't expect to see that large of an impact as we have in F '26.

    所以今年,我們確實看到了新組合的強勁成長,但這反而成了一個不利因素。但同時,高利潤的二手油桶銷售下降也產生了非常顯著的影響。再說,當我們逐年回顧,展望未來時,你不會期望看到像 2026 年秋季那樣巨大的影響。

  • But again, we continue to work through what is our pricing strategy, what is our product mix, our headwinds and tailwinds. When you think about the Blackberry launch, which is profitable, smaller things like King of Kentucky that we just launched, we've got Jack Daniel's Heritage Barrel. We've got a lot of things that continue to ladder consumers up.

    但是,我們仍在繼續研究我們的定價策略、產品組合、面臨的挑戰和順境。想想看,黑莓手機的發布是盈利的,而像我們剛剛推出的 King of Kentucky 這樣的小產品,還有傑克丹尼 Heritage Barrel。我們有很多東西可以不斷提升消費者的消費水準。

  • And then from a Blackberry phasing comment, we still have in the future, we have additional sizes that will be launched in US. We just launched in a few key developed European markets in the fall of this year. So we'll continue to have that benefit. And then we have largely all of our emerging markets that we have not yet launched in. And we know from history, Brazil is a very strong flavors market. So I think we would have really great expectations for that, as well as flavors outside of the US, we've proven -- we have a pretty proven track record that we can grow those to become very sizable brands.

    然後,根據黑莓的分階段發布聲明,我們未來還會推出更多尺寸的手機,這些手機將在美國上市。今年秋季,我們剛剛在幾個主要的歐洲已開發市場推出了產品。所以我們會繼續享受這項福利。此外,我們還有大部分新興市場尚未進入。我們從歷史中得知,巴西是一個非常強大的調味品市場。所以我認為我們對此抱有很高的期望,至於美國以外的口味,我們已經證明——我們有相當可靠的業績記錄,我們可以將這些口味發展成為非常龐大的品牌。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean there's a lot of emerging markets that have really -- where our flavors do very, very well, as Leanne said. The other little -- maybe -- I don't know if it's smaller, but I mean another piece of this is, in the US, we didn't launch el Jimador until August 1. And so we have that. And then as Leanne just said, in the fall, we launched in four European -- four-ish European markets. We've got the rest of the world to go, plus we have six months in some of the bigger markets like the UK and Germany, Poland.

    是的。我的意思是,正如莉安娜所說,在許多新興市場,我們的口味真的非常非常好。另一個小問題——也許——我不知道它是否更小,但我的意思是,還有一點是,在美國,我們直到 8 月 1 日才推出 el Jimador。所以,我們就有了這些。正如 Leanne 剛才所說,到了秋季,我們在四個歐洲市場推出了產品——大概是四個歐洲市場。我們還有世界其他地方要去開拓,此外,我們在英國、德國、波蘭等一些較大的市場還有六個月的時間。

  • So we plan for this not to be a one-year splash. And it's tricky. And the demand, I think out of the box for the last six months on Blackberry, has certainly been higher than what we thought last summer. So the bigger you do in year one, the hardest year two is. But that's all -- I mean, it's all for good reasons that the brand -- and I do think it's worth pointing out one difference between Blackberry and our other flavors that I think is a, particularly for the US is, is a big benefit is it is a simple mix with lemonade.

    所以我們計劃這不會是曇花一現。這很棘手。我認為,過去六個月來,黑莓手機的需求肯定比我們去年夏天預想的要高。所以你第一年做得越大,第二年就越難。但僅此而已——我的意思是,這一切都是有充分理由的,因為這個品牌——而且我認為值得指出的是,黑莓口味與我們其他口味的一個區別,我認為這尤其對美國來說是一個很大的優勢,因為它只是與檸檬水簡單混合。

  • And that's where a lot of consumption is happening. It doesn't take anything but a glass of lemonade and the blackberry, and that has been the drink, I think, that has worked so easy where some of the other flavors we've launched over the last -- heck, it's been 15 years since we did honey. But they never had the easiest matching pairing to make a quick drink with. And I do think that is not -- that is an important factor in the success -- in the continued success of these flavors.

    而那裡正是消費的主要場所。只需要一杯檸檬水和黑莓,我覺得這款飲料就非常受歡迎,而我們過去推出的其他一些口味——哎呀,我們上次推出蜂蜜口味的飲料已經是 15 年前的事了——卻沒那麼受歡迎。但他們一直沒有最容易搭配的食材來快速調製飲品。而且我認為這並不是——這是這些口味能持續成功的重要因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.

    艾瑞克‧塞羅塔,摩根士丹利。

  • Eric Serotta - Analyst

    Eric Serotta - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for the call and congratulations, Leanne. It's been a pleasure working with you over the years, and best luck in the next chapter.

    偉大的。謝謝你的來電,也恭喜你,莉安。這些年來與您共事非常愉快,並祝福您在人生的下一個階段一切順利。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you so much.

    太感謝了。

  • Eric Serotta - Analyst

    Eric Serotta - Analyst

  • I was hoping you could delve into the inventory dynamics in a bit more detail in terms of what happened in the fiscal third quarter and the expectations for the fourth quarter. About how much or can you help us dimensionalize how much of the shipments ahead of depletions were due to Blackberry versus the prior distributor transformation versus Blackberry internationally? So I guess it would be Blackberry, US, Blackberry international distributor transformations and other factors.

    我希望您能更詳細地探討一下第三財季的庫存動態以及對第四財季的預期。您能否幫我們量化一下,在庫存耗盡之前,有多少出貨量是由於黑莓手機本身,有多少是由於先前的經銷商轉型,又有多少是由於黑莓手機的國際業務?所以我想這可能是黑莓美國公司、黑莓國際經銷商的變動以及其他因素造成的。

  • And then it looks like year-to-date, your shipments are about 1 point or so ahead of depletions and round numbers. Are you saying that you'd expect that full amount to come out in the fourth quarter? And then, Lawson, maybe a minor point here, but can you just talk a bit about the Middle East exposure? I know it's small on a percentage basis, but I remember you guys calling out some really outsized growth in Middle East in travel retail over the years. So just help us frame that, please. Thanks so much.

    然後,從今年迄今為止的情況來看,您的出貨量比消耗量和整數高出約 1 個百分點左右。你是說你預計這筆款項將在第四季全部到位嗎?還有,勞森,這可能只是個小問題,但您能談談中東市場的情況嗎?我知道從百分比來看,這很小,但我記得你們這些年來曾指出中東旅遊零售業出現了非常顯著的成長。所以,請您幫我們把這個問題概括一下。非常感謝。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. Great. Eric, I'll start with your third quarter and fourth quarter kind of net change in distributor inventory question. As you can see on Schedule B, volumetrically, that our shipments are just slightly ahead of depletions that is related to our launch of Jack Daniel's Blackberry and it is related to our distributor transitions in the US, 2% in CDI for the US and 5% in our emerging international, are our main drivers.

    好的。偉大的。艾瑞克,我先回答你關於第三季和第四季經銷商庫存淨變化的問題。如您在附表 B 中看到的,從數量上看,我們的出貨量略高於與我們推出傑克丹尼黑莓手機相關的損耗,並且與我們在美國的分銷商轉型有關,美國 CDI 的 2% 和新興國際市場的 5% 是我們的主要驅動因素。

  • And with that, I would say what we expect -- what's driving that is, I would call it, distributor transition order phasing still continuing to normalize as we go through this fiscal year of transition. And we expect that to balance out over the -- through the end of the fourth quarter.

    因此,我想說,我們預期——推動這一趨勢的因素,我稱之為分銷商過渡訂單分階段實施,隨著我們度過這個過渡財年,這一階段仍在繼續正常化。我們預計這種情況會在第四季末達到平衡。

  • We did just launch New Mix in the US, which that's a part of that gap. And we're continuing in our launch of Blackberry. With Blackberry, we're continuing to see strong shipments in the US. Depletions are starting to close that gap as they've been out there. And largely from an international perspective, because its own distribution, a lot of that, you're not going to see a lot of impact there from Blackberry launch in our developed markets.

    我們剛剛在美國推出了 New Mix,這彌補了部分市場空缺。我們將繼續推進黑莓手機的上市計畫。黑莓手機在美國的出貨量持續強勁。隨著物資的消耗,這一差距正逐漸縮小。從國際角度來看,由於黑莓本身的通路,很多時候,黑莓在我們已開發市場的推出不會產生太大影響。

  • So then what we tried to do was guide you to the higher or stronger end of our range for organic net sales. So with that, our expectations for the fourth quarter is we continue to expect to see that normalization of the US distributor ordering patterns. So we do think we will still have some benefit from the Blackberry and New Mix launch in the US. So hopefully, that is helpful.

    因此,我們試圖引導您選擇我們有機淨銷售額較高或更強的產品系列。因此,我們對第四季度的預期是,我們將繼續預期美國分銷商的訂購模式將趨於正常化。所以我們認為,黑莓和新Mix在美國的發布仍然會為我們帶來一些好處。希望這能有所幫助。

  • And then what I would say to your question on the Middle East, first and foremost, it's always about, for us, the safety and security of all of our team members. And we're happy to report everyone is safe. And then to the business aspect of that, our largest markets there, relative to the enterprise, are not some of our largest markets.

    至於你提出的關於中東的問題,首先,也是最重要的,對我們來說,始終是保障我們所有團隊成員的安全。我們很高興地報告,所有人都平安無事。從商業角度來看,相對於企業而言,我們在那裡的最大市場並不是我們最大的市場。

  • But the UAE is a strong market for us, and we have been growing nicely there with strong double-digit growth. In the UAE, we do think that we do have the appropriate level of supply as we think about our year to go, March and April, to meet consumer demand. And then Israel is a much, much smaller business for us. Again, we think that we've got the resilience in the supply there.

    但阿聯酋對我們來說是一個強大的市場,我們在那裡發展良好,並實現了兩位數的強勁成長。在阿聯酋,我們認為,考慮到今年剩餘時間(3月和4月),我們的供應水準足以滿足消費者的需求。而且,以色列的業務對我們來說規模要小得多。我們再次認為,我們在那裡的供應具有足夠的韌性。

  • GTR could be somewhat impacted, though it's way too early. We're watching and assessing. If the transportation and airports normalize quickly, then we wouldn't expect to see much of an impact. But as you would assume, we're continuously assessing. We're doing all the work to understand the logistics of where our goods are in transport, and we're rerouting them where prudent.

    GTR可能會受到一定影響,但現在下結論還為時過早。我們正在觀察和評估。如果交通運輸和機場能夠迅速恢復正常,那麼我們預計不會看到太大的影響。但正如您所料,我們一直在持續評估。我們正在盡一切努力了解貨物在運輸過程中的物流情況,並在適當的時候重新安排運輸路線。

  • But again, we feel like with where we are in our fiscal year, it's very early in this conflict, we've got inventory that we need in market for a year to go.

    但是,我們覺得,就我們目前的財政年度而言,這場衝突還處於非常早期的階段,我們有足夠的庫存可以供應市場一年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrea Pistacchi, Bank of America.

    安德里亞·皮斯塔基,美國銀行。

  • Andrea Pistacchi - Analyst

    Andrea Pistacchi - Analyst

  • Yes. Good morning and thank you. I have a question on your SG&A, please. You just lapped the restructuring initiatives, which you launched last January. Now given your commentary on gross margin and some of the pressures there probably likely to persist, and the uncertainty, I guess, on the top line still given the environment, so how are you thinking of further opportunities for efficiencies at the SG&A level as we move towards, say, next fiscal? Thank you.

    是的。早安,謝謝。請問貴公司的銷售、管理及行政費用(SG&A)方面有問題嗎?你剛剛完成了你去年一月啟動的重組計畫。鑑於您對毛利率的評論以及一些可能持續存在的壓力,以及考慮到當前環境,營收仍然存在不確定性,那麼隨著我們邁向下一個財年,您認為在銷售、管理及行政費用層面進一步提高效率的機會是什麼?謝謝。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • I'll let Lawson speak to strategically longer term. I would say here, as we have been in a really dynamic operating environment for some time now, we have been very disciplined in controlling all of the costs that are within our control as well as all of our operating expenses that are within our control. So I think you would continue to see us look at everything that's available to us and optimize and be very disciplined where we can.

    我會讓勞森從更長遠的戰略角度來談談這個問題。我想說,由於我們一直處於一個非常動態的經營環境中,因此我們一直非常嚴格地控制所有在我們可控範圍內的成本以及所有在我們可控範圍內的營運費用。所以我認為,我們將繼續審視所有可用的資源,並在力所能及的範圍內進行最佳化和嚴格執行。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I mean look, there's not a lot more to add to that. I mean the -- we, as Leanne said, we're being pretty tight and closely monitoring a lot of our variable operating expenses, including SG&A. And so we are -- I think we're just being prudent in the way that we're managing SG&A. And we'll continue to do that going forward.

    我的意思是,你看,也沒什麼好補充的了。我的意思是——正如 Leanne 所說,我們正在嚴格控制和密切監控許多可變營運費用,包括銷售、一般及行政費用。所以,我認為我們只是在管理銷售、一般及行政費用方面採取了謹慎的做法。我們今後也會繼續這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

    史蒂夫鮑爾斯,德意志銀行。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. Good morning, both Lawson and Leanne. Leanne, you thanked a lot of people in your remarks. I just wanted to take the opportunity to thank you as well for your help over these many years.

    偉大的。謝謝。勞森和莉安,早安。莉安娜,你在發言中感謝了很多人。我謹藉此機會也感謝您這些年來的幫助。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Stephen, you've been a great partner.

    史蒂芬,你一直是個很棒的合作夥伴。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • So -- well, I actually have two, and I think they're relatively straightforward, but let me just try. So the first one is just following up on the aging barrel cost headwind topic. Lawson, your additional comments were helpful. But Leanne, you had mentioned in your opening remarks, plans to, I think the word was liquidate, aging barrels in the coming years. I just want to pause on that word liquidate. Is that simply a synonym for normal course selling? Or are you planning to --

    所以——嗯,我其實有兩個,而且我覺得它們都比較簡單,但我還是試著解釋一下。所以第一個問題只是繼續探討老舊酒桶成本上升帶來的不利影響。Lawson,你的補充意見很有幫助。但莉安娜,你在開場白中提到過,你打算在未來幾年清算陳年酒桶。我想在「清算」這個詞上稍作停頓。這是否只是普通課程銷售的同義詞?或者你打算…--

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. No, that is -- liquidate is a term that we would use for like literally dumping the contents out of the barrel so that we can process them and bottle them.

    是的。不,也就是說——「清空」這個詞我們用來指將桶裡的東西倒出來,以便我們可以進行加工和裝瓶。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you. I just wanted to make sure, make sure you weren't -- discount those high costs. Okay. And then the other nit is just on the lower tax rate that you foresee on the year. I'm assuming those benefits are cash tax benefits as well. Could you confirm that? And then just any implications on the go forward? Does this translate into any kind of structural benefits? Or should we assume things revert to more of a normal 21% to 23% range going forward?

    知道了。謝謝。我只是想確認一下,確認你沒有——忽略那些高昂的費用。好的。另一個小問題就是你預計今年的稅率會比較低。我假設這些優惠也包括現金稅優惠。能確認一下嗎?那麼,這對未來會有什麼影響呢?這是否能轉化為任何結構性優勢?或者我們應該假設未來情況會恢復到正常的 21% 到 23% 的範圍?

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I think with what has changed in our tax rate, it's really favorable year-over-year tax rate changes, lower state taxes and some discrete items. So we are also seeing a lower cash tax than what we would have seen in the year-ago period. But I would think as you look out, you would expect us to kind of go back to that normal range of the 21% to 23%.

    是的。我認為,就我們稅率的變化而言,同比稅率的變化確實非常有利,州稅降低,還有一些特殊項目。因此,我們看到的現金稅收也比去年同期有所下降。但我認為,放眼未來,我們應該會回到 21% 到 23% 的正常範圍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas.

    凱文·格倫迪,法國巴黎銀行。

  • Kevin Grundy - Analyst

    Kevin Grundy - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone and Leanne, congrats again, and of course, wishing you all the best. Two quick ones for me, maybe not quick. But I guess, Lawson, and for Leanne as well, just on Diageo news and some of the commentary today around gross margin pressure and sustained pressures around the business. Just spend a moment maybe on return of capital and the dividend policy and maybe just sort of express the level of comfort as best you can today within the context of demand pressures.

    偉大的。謝謝。大家早安,莉安娜,再次恭喜你,當然,也祝你一切順利。對我來說是兩個速戰速決的問題,也許不算快。但我想,勞森,還有莉安娜,都注意到了帝亞吉歐的新聞以及今天一些關於毛利率壓力和業務持續壓力的評論。請花一點時間談談資本回報和股息政策,並盡可能在當前需求壓力的背景下表達您的舒適程度。

  • Looks like compressed margins, price cuts, I don't know, hard to take that off the table. That's a big worry among the investment community, particularly what we're seeing more broadly in the food space. So your thoughts there.

    看起來像是利潤空間壓縮、價格下調,我也不確定,很難排除這種可能性。這引起了投資界的極大擔憂,尤其是在食品領域更廣泛地出現的這種現象。你對此有何看法?

  • And then as a follow-up, Lawson, I guess, what do you -- it's -- obviously, the company is not standing still at all, distributor changes, et cetera. What more do you think can be done to stimulate demand and manage the portfolio, particularly in the US and developed international, whether this is going to be more emphasis on ready-to-drink because that's where the consumer is going, and it might be lower margin, but you kind of need to meet the consumer where they're going, more accessible price points because we keep talking about the tough macro and other companies are moving and it seems like that seems to be less of a lever?

    然後,作為後續問題,勞森,我想,你覺得——很明顯,公司並沒有停滯不前,分銷商發生了變化等等。您認為還可以採取哪些措施來刺激需求和管理產品組合,尤其是在美國和已開發國際市場?是否應該更加重視即飲產品,因為這是消費者正在轉向的方向,雖然利潤率可能較低,但您需要迎合消費者的需求,提供更易於接受的價格點,因為我們一直在談論嚴峻的宏觀經濟形勢,其他公司也在採取行動,而這似乎不再是一個有效的槓桿?

  • So there's a lot here. I know it's probably not a short answer, but I appreciate you indulging me on both of those. Thank you.

    這裡的內容很多。我知道這可能不是一個簡單的答案,但我很感謝您耐心解答我的這兩個問題。謝謝。

  • Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Leanne Cunningham - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, I can start with the first part of your question that was really about capital allocation. And Brown-Forman has always had an incredibly strong balance sheet and has always generated really strong cash flow from operations. And so as we look out, we continue to believe that we will have everything that it takes to meet the needs of the business and continue to meet the needs of increasing dividend into the future.

    好的,我可以先回答你問題的第一部分,也就是關於資本配置的問題。布朗-福曼公司一直擁有非常強勁的資產負債表,並且一直能夠從經營活動中產生非常強勁的現金流。因此,展望未來,我們仍然相信我們將擁有滿足業務需求的一切條件,並繼續滿足未來不斷增長的股息需求。

  • If you look at our free cash flow that we reported today, it continues -- it kind of goes back more to that normalized level after we've been through a lot of volatility. And this is one area where you can continue to see some of the, we've talked about earlier, the improved terms from our distributor transitions coming through, that will be built into our base going forward.

    如果你看一下我們今天公佈的自由現金流,你會發現它在經歷了很大的波動之後,又逐漸恢復到了正常水平。在這個領域,您可以繼續看到我們之前討論過的一些改進條款,這些條款來自我們的經銷商轉型,並將融入我們未來的發展基礎中。

  • We're continuing to reduce the working capital intensity on our balance sheet. And we're in a period now where we've made the investments that we need from a capacity perspective. So you should expect that capital expenditure number to be lower as we kind of look out over the next three years as well.

    我們正在持續降低資產負債表上的營運資本密集度。現在,我們已經從產能角度進行了必要的投資。因此,展望未來三年,我們應該預期資本支出數字會下降。

  • So with that, I'll turn it over to --

    那麼,接下來我就把麥克風交給…--

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I just -- I don't want to repeat what Leanne just said, but I do want to make the point that -- and I don't know if this is really what you were inferring a little bit. But there have been some of these, I call them the AI-generated reports, that have challenged our ability to pay dividends. And that's in that to be borderline absurd, quite honestly. I mean if you look at that schedule, you can see how much free cash flow we have.

    是的。我只是——我不想重複莉安娜剛才說過的話,但我確實想指出一點——我不知道這是否真的是你剛才暗示的意思。但其中一些報告(我稱之為人工智慧產生的報告)對我們支付股息的能力提出了挑戰。說實話,這簡直荒謬至極。我的意思是,如果你看一下那份時間表,你就能看出我們有多少自由現金流。

  • We are so far above any sort of dividend needs that we have the flexibility to make capital decisions in the ways that we would want to do. Back to the pricing comment that you made, I mean Leanne already hit this one pretty hard, so I don't have a ton more to give you other than -- I don't want -- what Diageo said, I do think -- and look, I haven't dissected them.

    我們目前的財務狀況遠遠超出任何分紅需求,因此我們有足夠的靈活性,可以按照我們想要的方式做出資本決策。回到你提到的定價問題,我的意思是,Leanne 已經對此進行了非常深入的探討,所以我除了——我不想——帝亞吉歐的說法之外,沒有什麼可補充的了,我認為——而且你看,我還沒有仔細分析過他們。

  • I hadn't -- go back and listen to how they sort of adjusted their comments the following day. But it was more about individual brands that feel like they're in the wrong place than it is a wholesale, we need to get more aggressive because that's what's going to drive volumes. And I don't think any of the big companies are saying that or, in fact, are doing that. And we're just not -- it's just not coming up to the data.

    我當時沒有——回去聽聽他們第二天是如何調整他們的評論的。但這更多的是關於那些感覺自己定位錯誤的地方的個別品牌,而不是批發商的問題,我們需要採取更積極的策略,因為這才能推動銷售成長。而且我認為沒有任何一家大公司會這麼說,或者實際上正在這麼做。但我們就是──它就是達不到數據所顯示的程度。

  • So I know that some people might say you're wishful thinking or it's coming or whatever it might be, but we're just not seeing it yet. And as I've said earlier, we are not planning, and it will not be in our plans for next year, to see sort of dramatic differences in pricing that we continue to see we have ideas from new products and innovation and things like that, which we think can help margins.

    我知道有些人可能會說你這是在一廂情願,或者說它即將到來等等,但我們目前還沒有看到它。正如我之前所說,我們沒有計劃,明年也不會有這樣的計劃,在價格方面出現劇烈的變化。我們不斷看到新產品和創新等想法,我們認為這些可以提高利潤率。

  • And we're going to continue to use revenue growth management in the way that we've been doing now for a number of years. And I think we've been pretty successful at driving value growth through the smart use of some of those levers. And so we're going to continue to do that too.

    我們將繼續沿用過去幾年來一直採用的收入成長管理方法。我認為,透過巧妙運用其中一些手段,我們已經相當成功地推動了價值成長。所以我們也將繼續這樣做。

  • So on the pricing sort of ultimate impact on margins and that whole question, I just don't see that as a particularly high risk. I don't see it as a high of a risk I think that some others are saying. So was there another question in there? Is that -- did we get it all?

    所以關於定價對利潤率的最終影響以及整個問題,我並不認為這是一個特別高的風險。我不認為這像其他人說的那樣風險很高。所以裡面還有其他問題嗎?那樣的話──我們都明白了嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seamus Cassidy, TD Cowen.

    西莫斯·卡西迪,TD·考恩。

  • Seamus Cassidy - Analyst

    Seamus Cassidy - Analyst

  • Hi. This is Seamus on for Rob Moskow. I wanted to ask a follow-up on the US distributor realignment. You described it as a multi-quarter transition and one of your key initiatives. Now that we're two full quarters into the transition, I was hoping you could give us a candid assessment of how that process has gone. And aside from the improved terms, what benefits you've seen in market, whether that be improved shelf space or more focus from your partners or otherwise? Thanks.

    你好。這是 Seamus 代替 Rob Moskow 為您解說。我想就美國分銷商重組事宜詢問一些後續情況。你將其描述為一個跨越多個季度的過渡期,也是你的關鍵舉措。現在過渡期已經過了整整兩個季度,我希望您能坦誠地評估這個過程進展如何。除了條款改善之外,您在市場上還看到了哪些好處,例如貨架空間增加、合作夥伴更加關注等等?謝謝。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, look, I mean, when we say multi-quarter thing, I mean, California and Reyes would have been so, I guess, earliest in the process on that, that started at the very beginning of our fiscal year. The vast majority of them were August 1. So that's the sort of timing difference between the two.

    嗯,你看,我的意思是,當我們說跨季度的事情時,我的意思是,加州和雷耶斯應該是最早參與這個過程的人,這個過程從我們財政年度的開始就啟動了。絕大多數都是8月1日。這就是兩者之間的時間差異。

  • And look, not all adjusted at the same pace. There are things like the on-premise where we needed to hire a lot of people to catch up on the on-premise pretty quickly, and they've gotten there. They're there now. And so things are clicking pretty well right now in a lot of states. We still -- there's some inventory flows that we need to tweak, but that's not really a strategic thing. That's just some execution that we're getting, and it all basically happens within the fiscal year anyway.

    而且,並非所有人都以相同的速度進行了調整。有些方面,例如本地部署,我們需要雇用很多人來盡快趕上本地部署的進度,而他們已經做到了。他們現在就在那裡。所以目前很多州的情況都相當不錯。我們仍然需要對一些庫存流程進行調整,但這並不是什麼策略性的事情。這只是我們正在執行的一些工作,而且所有這些基本上都是在本財年內完成的。

  • And so yes, no, we feel pretty good. I mean the focus on our portfolio, the dedicated sales that we're getting now, I think, is going to be a big benefit. There is some margin benefits. But -- and look, I think looking for some positive news out of all of it too is look at Jack Daniel's, it's starting to get a little bit better. And in the on-premise, we're starting to see improved performance too.

    所以,是的,我們感覺很好。我的意思是,我們專注於產品組合,以及我們現在獲得的專屬銷售,我認為這將帶來巨大的好處。存在一定的利潤空間。但是——而且,我認為從這一切中尋找一些積極的消息也是可以的,看看傑克丹尼威士忌,它的情況開始好轉了一些。在本地部署方面,我們也開始看到效能有所提升。

  • We have our own, we call the Jack Pack, which is an internal thing that focuses on the sort of the top bars and in the top cities across America. But the distributors, depending on what state you're in, but I mean, they're very much behind that too. And I think we're seeing some of the better, best performance we've seen in the on-premise with Jack in quite some time.

    我們有自己的項目,叫做 Jack Pack,這是一個內部項目,專注於美國各地頂級城市和頂級酒吧。但是分銷商的情況取決於你所在的州,我的意思是,他們在這方面也發揮了很大的作用。我認為我們看到 Jack 在本地部署方面表現出色,這是我們一段時間以來看到的最好的表現之一。

  • And so yeah, look, these things don't -- they don't solve themselves overnight necessarily, but we've got things rolling in the right direction and feeling pretty good about it.

    所以,是的,你看,這些事情不一定會在一夜之間自行解決,但我們已經讓事情朝著正確的方向發展,對此我們感覺相當不錯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bill Kirk, ROTH Capital Partners.

    Bill Kirk,ROTH Capital Partners。

  • William Kirk - Analyst

    William Kirk - Analyst

  • Good morning, everybody. I wanted to ask more about New Mix in the US. Our checks in the initial markets show it doing very, very well. So first, how are you thinking about how wide the US launch can be? And then why not be more aggressive right now with the rollout given what likely would be strong demand around the World Cup?

    大家早安。我想進一步了解美國的新混合音樂節(New Mix)。我們在初始市場進行的調查顯示,它的表現非常非常好。首先,您認為美國市場的推廣範圍可以有多廣?那麼,鑑於世界盃期間可能出現的強勁需求,為什麼不現在就更積極地進行推廣呢?

  • And then a very different question. It looks like Diageo is reconsidering whether they want dedicated sales teams and resources at their US wholesalers or if their products should just go in like a general or broad book and then have those dedicated funds diverted into more in-trade spend. So I guess if they pursue that, what do you think it would mean for your relationships with wholesalers? And would you also consider removing dedicated wholesaler sales to reallocate dollars to trade? Thank you.

    然後,我提出了一個截然不同的問題。看來帝亞吉歐正在重新考慮是否要在美國批發商處設立專門的銷售團隊和資源,還是應該像普通產品一樣進入批發市場,然後將這些專款轉移到更多的零售通路支出。所以我想,如果他們真的這麼做,你認為這對你與批發商的關係意味著什麼?您是否也考慮取消專門的批發商銷售,將資金重新分配到貿易領域?謝謝。

  • Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Lawson Whiting - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Mean on the latter part of it, I, quite honestly, I've not heard that. So I don't really want to comment on how they may be planning that. But it does seem hard to believe that dedicated resources are a very -- what we consider a very important part of what we made -- the changes that we made last summer, and consider that important to where we are now. So that's an odd comment, quite honestly, that I had -- no one ever -- no one has said to me. And it's probably worth saying we're not generally speaking in the same house as Diageo in very many places. There's some, but not a lot. So it's just sort of directly not really an impact on us.

    至於後半部分,說實話,我沒聽過。所以我不想對他們的計劃作評論。但很難相信,專案資源是我們所做改變中非常重要的一部分——我們認為這些改變對我們去年夏天的成就至關重要。說實話,這真是一句很奇怪的話,從來沒有人──從來沒有人對我說過這樣的話。而且值得一提的是,在很多方面,我們和帝亞吉歐的立場並不相同。有一些,但不多。所以這其實並沒有直接對我們產生影響。

  • Back to the New Mix question, or maybe with World Cup and all that, of course, they haven't really thought that part of it through, but we are in -- I don't know how many states, seven or eight states, something like that? But it's the big states where you're going to have a lot more Mexican consumers, Mexican-American consumers. So we're capturing a pretty good portion of that population, I think, already.

    回到新混音的問題,或者也許是因為世界盃之類的,當然,他們還沒有真正考慮過這部分,但我們現在處於——我不知道多少個州,七八個州,差不多吧?但是,在人口眾多的大州,墨西哥裔消費者和墨西哥裔美國消費者會更多。我認為,我們已經涵蓋了相當大一部分人群。

  • And look, we're just trying to sort of figure out which flavors and price points and how to bring it forward. And I think as you said, it has -- it's off to a really good start. It is so big in Mexico now that awareness amongst that population is very high. We feel pretty good that we can make this bigger.

    你看,我們只是想弄清楚哪些口味、哪些價格點適合推廣。正如你所說,我認為它的確如此——它開局非常好。現在它在墨西哥非常流行,民眾的認知度很高。我們很有信心能把這個專案做得更大。

  • And it's worth also pointing out too, we've got a line extension that's going to come out soon with our el Jimador Spritz, which it's kind of similar to New Mix, I guess, you would call. It doesn't look the same, doesn't taste the same necessarily, but still it is for those consumers that want sort of the lighter options within the RTD world, which is 99% of the category or something like that.

    值得一提的是,我們即將推出一款名為 el Jimador Spritz 的產品線延伸產品,它有點像 New Mix,我想你可以這麼稱呼它。它看起來不一樣,味道也不一定一樣,但它仍然適合那些想要在即飲飲料領域選擇較清淡口味的消費者,而這類消費者佔該類別的 99% 左右。

  • So yeah. So we've done a lot in the innovation pipeline. And certainly, in RTD, somebody asked earlier, are you going to continue to do RTDs even though they had lower margins? There really is only one answer to that. You've got to go where the consumer is. And we'll see how big and important they get. Right now they're not honestly big enough to have a material impact on margins and things like that. But someday, they might. And look, we'll take the dollars where we can get them.

    是的。因此,我們在創新流程方面做了很多工作。當然,在即飲飲料領域,之前有人問過,即使即飲飲料的利潤較低,你們還會繼續生產即飲飲料嗎?這個問題其實只有一個答案。你必須去消費者所在的地方。我們將拭目以待,看看它們最終能發展到多大規模和多重要。目前它們的規模還不夠大,不足以對利潤率之類的因素產生實質影響。但總有一天,他們或許會這麼做。瞧,我們能拿到美元就一定會拿。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We have run out of time for questions. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn it back to Sue Perram for closing remarks.

    謝謝。提問時間已到。問答環節到此結束。現在我把發言權交還給蘇·佩拉姆,請她作總結發言。

  • Susanne Perram - Vice President, Director Investor Relations

    Susanne Perram - Vice President, Director Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Thank you, Lawson and Leanne, and thank you to everyone for joining us today for Brown-Forman's Third Quarter and Year-to-Date Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Call. If you have any additional questions, please contact us.

    謝謝。謝謝 Lawson 和 Leanne,也謝謝各位今天參加 Brown-Forman 2026 財年第三季及年初至今的業績電話會議。如果您還有其他疑問,請與我們聯絡。

  • We look forward to participating in the UBS Global Consumer and Retail Conference in New York next week and hope to see many of you. For those of you unable to attend, our fireside chat will be made available as a webcast accessible via the Brown-Forman corporate website under the section titled Investors, Events & Presentations.

    我們期待下週在紐約參加瑞銀全球消費及零售大會,並希望見到你們中的許多人。對於無法到場的各位,我們的爐邊談話將以網路直播的形式提供,可透過布朗-福曼公司網站的「投資者、活動和演示」部分存取。

  • With that, this concludes today's call.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。