Banco Bradesco SA (BBD) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • Hello, good morning everyone and welcome to our Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Videoconference. Thank you very much for your participation. In the opening part of the event, our President, Octavio will present the bank's results. Then, we will have the question and answer session. The presentation and other materials are available for download on our Investor Relations website. (Operator Instructions) The presentation will be in Portuguese with simultaneous translation into English. Audio language can be selected directly from the window you are watching. You can also choose audio always in Portuguese, even when questions are asked in English.

    大家早上好,歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第二季度收益視頻會議。非常感謝您的參與。在活動的開幕部分,我們的總裁奧克塔維奧將介紹該銀行的業績。然後,我們將進行問答環節。演示文稿和其他材料可在我們的投資者關係網站上下載。 (操作員說明)演示將以葡萄牙語進行,並同步翻譯成英語。音頻語言可以直接從您正在觀看的窗口中選擇。即使用英語提問,您也可以選擇始終使用葡萄牙語的音頻。

  • I now turn the floor over to Octavio, who will begin our presentation of results. We'll meet again later in the Q&A section, see you soon.

    現在我將發言權交給奧克塔維奧,他將開始介紹我們的結果。我們稍後會在問答部分再次見面,很快再見。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Thank you, Firetti. Good day everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings video conference call. We start our presentation with highlights for the period. Net income for the second quarter of 2023 was BRL 4.5 billion, a rise of 5.6% versus the previous quarter and within the expectations.

    謝謝你,費雷蒂。今天是個好日子。感謝您參加我們的財報視頻電話會議。我們首先介紹這一時期的亮點。 2023年第二季度淨利潤為45億雷亞爾,環比增長5.6%,符合預期。

  • As we’'ve stated over the past few quarters, the recovery process will be gradual. Our Basel ratio posted a 34 bps boost in Tier I capital, even with the full constitution of IoC. Market NII improved even further and will continue to progress over the next half year and in 2024. Client NII, however, is impacted by the momentary lower origination and lower risk mix.

    正如我們在過去幾個季度所說的那樣,復甦過程將是漸進的。即使 IoC 已完全成立,我們的巴塞爾一級資本比率仍提高了 34 個基點。市場NII進一步改善,並將在下半年和2024年繼續取得進展。然而,客戶NII受到暫時較低的來源和較低風險組合的影響。

  • The bank's performance is pressured by credit provisions expenses. On the other hand, we've been able to control NPLs with an improvement in the 15 to 90-day index as a result of the adjustments in credit policies that we have made over the last few quarters.

    該銀行的業績受到信貸撥備支出的壓力。另一方面,由於前幾個季度信貸政策的調整,不良貸款得到了控制,15天至90天指數有所改善。

  • New vintages demonstrate an improvement in quality, and this has allowed an initial resumption of origination, primarily in personal loans for middle-income individuals and a good pipeline in the wholesale bank for the second half. This resumption will continue over the coming quarters, expanding to other credit lines as well as to retail.

    新年份酒表現出質量的提高,這使得起源得以初步恢復,主要是針對中等收入個人的個人貸款,以及下半年批發銀行的良好渠道。這種恢復將在未來幾個季度繼續下去,並擴展到其他信貸額度以及零售業。

  • The lnsurance Group, again, saw a growth in the results and the income. We've seen strong momentum for the insurance business, contributing positively to the group's performance this year, with a counter-cyclical effect. We continue with our strategic and efficiency initiatives, the key ones being the reduction of the cost-to-serve in retail, strengthening our high-income operation and the bank's digital transformation.

    保險集團的業績和收入再次實現增長。我們看到保險業務的強勁勢頭,為集團今年的業績做出了積極貢獻,具有反週期效應。我們繼續實施戰略和效率舉措,關鍵是降低零售服務成本、加強高收入運營和銀行數字化轉型。

  • Our primary focus is on serving our 72 million clients even better, placing them at the center of everything we do. Our work, centered on providing excellent service to our clients, is geared towards contributing to their achievements. We have evolved and customized the journeys, processes and products according to the demand, the need and desires of our clients.

    我們的主要重點是更好地為我們的 7200 萬客戶提供服務,將他們置於我們所做的一切的中心。我們的工作以向客戶提供優質服務為中心,旨在為他們的成就做出貢獻。我們根據客戶的需求、需要和願望改進和定制旅程、流程和產品。

  • We've felt the recognition of our over 38 million account holders through significant progress seen in the NPS for individual retail and Prime in a variety of products. We will continue to strive for constant improvement in an effort to delight our clients. Speaking of our digital agenda, Bradesco has always been noteworthy for its pioneering spirit in innovation. Our ecosystem of innovation links agile work methodologies, tools and collaboration with suppliers and startups.

    通過個人零售和各種產品的 Prime 的 NPS 取得的重大進展,我們感受到了超過 3800 萬賬戶持有人的認可。我們將繼續努力,不斷改進,努力讓客戶滿意。談到我們的數字議程,布拉德斯科一直以其創新先鋒精神而引人注目。我們的創新生態系統將敏捷的工作方法、工具以及與供應商和初創公司的協作聯繫起來。

  • I would also like to point out the partnerships with significant and renowned institutions throughout Brazil and abroad, with which we have participated with in a number of different projects, in addition to the search for highly qualified professionals, particularly data scientists and in technology to join our staff.

    我還想指出與巴西和國外重要和知名機構的合作夥伴關係,除了尋找高素質的專業人員,特別是數據科學家和技術人員加入之外,我們還參與了許多不同的項目我們的員工。

  • We are continually promoting the digital mindset and innovation culture across the bank. This facilitates new business, scalability and personalization of services for clients. The accelerated use of the cloud, coupled with the emerging agile methodologies in [villas], has enabled a continuous reduction in the timescales for new implementations.

    我們不斷在整個銀行推廣數字思維和創新文化。這有利於為客戶提供新業務、可擴展性和個性化服務。雲的加速使用,加上[別墅]中新興的敏捷方法,使得新實施的時間尺度不斷縮短。

  • BIA, the artificial intelligence application we pioneered, has had more than 2 billion client interactions since its introduction. In addition, we are exploring and using new technologies such as Generative AI and Quantum Computing over in finance at various stages of our clients’ journey. The clients profile has rapidly evolved, as they have become increasingly more digital each day.

    BIA 是我們首創的人工智能應用程序,自推出以來已擁有超過 20 億次客戶交互。此外,我們還在客戶旅程的各個階段探索和使用金融領域的新技術,例如生成式人工智能和量子計算。隨著客戶的數字化程度日益提高,客戶資料也在迅速發展。

  • Nowadays, 73% of our clients have a digital behavior and 98% of all transaction are performed through self-service channels. The volume of financial transactions on mobile devices has continued this trend and grown by 33% year-to-date compared to 2022. As part of our efforts to optimize the cost-to-serve, Bradesco Expresso plays a very important role. There are more than 41,000 service points throughout the country, offering convenience to our clients through a variable cost network.

    如今,我們73%的客戶有數字化行為,98%的交易是通過自助服務渠道進行的。移動設備上的金融交易量延續了這一趨勢,與 2022 年相比,今年迄今增長了 33%。作為我們優化服務成本努力的一部分,Bradesco Expresso 發揮了非常重要的作用。全國有超過 41,000 個服務點,通過可變成本網絡為我們的客戶提供便利。

  • In addition, we promoted the integration of Next with Bradesco. In this new context, Next clients will have access to Bradesco’s complete portfolio of products and services. Digio continues as a separate digital bank, focused on cards, payment accounts and partnerships. Still in the digital evolutions, we launched e-agro, an innovative digital platform for specialized services intended for rural producers that combines financial and non-financial products and services in an effort to address all our clients' needs.

    此外,我們還推動了Next與Bradesco的整合。在這一新背景下,Next 客戶將能夠使用 Bradesco 的完整產品和服務組合。 Digio 繼續作為一家獨立的數字銀行,專注於卡、支付賬戶和合作夥伴關係。在數字化發展過程中,我們推出了 e-agro,這是一個為農村生產者提供專業服務的創新數字平台,結合了金融和非金融產品及服務,以滿足所有客戶的需求。

  • This robust ecosystem features partners that carry the best offers to the market covering the entire agro chain, from financed costs to the sale of grains. Anchored in Artificial Intelligence, the platform is capable of making proactive recommendations for offers and services, and also helps rural farmer purchase financed products and get credit, all 100% online. We have witnessed a growth of 115% in this segment over the last 4 years, and we are the largest private bank operating in Agribusiness, boasting unique and specialized services, with 14 agribusiness platforms that have dedicated teams, including agronomists.

    這個強大的生態系統的合作夥伴可以為市場提供最好的報價,覆蓋整個農業鏈,從融資成本到穀物銷售。該平台以人工智能為基礎,能夠主動推薦產品和服務,並幫助農民購買融資產品和獲得信貸,所有這些都是100%在線的。過去 4 年裡,我們在這一領域增長了 115%,我們是農業企業領域最大的私人銀行,擁有獨特和專業的服務,擁有 14 個農業企業平台,擁有包括農藝師在內的專門團隊。

  • We have continued to improve our wealth services, aligned with business that has been one of our top strategic priorities. Our combined investment platforms, which also include our local banks in the US and Europe, have now received yet another addition, Tivio Capital. This investments manager, established in partnership with BV, has BRL 42 billion under management and will continue to act independently and specialize in managing high value-added structured funds in an open architecture format.

    我們不斷改進我們的財富服務,與我們的首要戰略重點之一的業務保持一致。我們的聯合投資平台(其中還包括我們在美國和歐洲的當地銀行)現在又增加了一個新成員:Tivio Capital。該投資管理公司與 BV 合作成立,管理著 420 億雷亞爾的資產,並將繼續獨立行事,專注於以開放式架構形式管理高附加值結構性基金。

  • In order to expand our international offer, we launched My Account in July. This is an international digital account for all the publics, and includes a personalized debit card, which can be used to make withdrawals and purchases in over 200 countries with automatic currency conversion. It's a practical and tailored solution, which joins the Bradesco Bank offer. And lastly, before presenting our financial performance, we would like to underline our position in sustainability, which permeates our strategy and our businesses.

    為了擴大我們的國際服務,我們於 7 月推出了“我的帳戶”。這是一個面向所有公眾的國際數字賬戶,包括一張個性化借記卡,可用於在 200 多個國家/地區進行取款和購物,並具有自動貨幣兌換功能。這是一個實用且量身定制的解決方案,已加入布拉德斯科銀行的產品中。最後,在介紹我們的財務業績之前,我們想強調我們在可持續發展方面的地位,這滲透到我們的戰略和業務中。

  • We have now reached 78% of our goal to allocate BRL 250 billion to sustainable businesses by 2025 and we also remain committed to creating operations and products with a positive social and environmental impact, boasting growth, for example, of 72% in financing for the purchase of solar panels and 168% in financing of hybrid and electric vehicles over the last 2 years.

    目前,我們已實現到2025 年為可持續發展企業撥款2500 億雷亞爾的目標的78%,我們還繼續致力於創造具有積極社會和環境影響的業務和產品,例如,我們的融資增長了72 %。過去 2 年購買太陽能電池板以及 168% 的混合動力和電動汽車融資。

  • Over the course of the last 6 months, we received a number of different recognitions, such as the inclusion of the funds managed by Bradesco Asset as one of the most profitable in the Valor Economico Fund Guide in partnership with Getulio Vargas Foundation and, within our innovation ecosystem, major awards for payment initiator and inovabra.

    在過去的 6 個月裡,我們獲得了許多不同的認可,例如將 Bradesco Asset 管理的基金與 Getulio Vargas 基金會合作列入 Valor Economico 基金指南中最賺錢的基金之一,並在我們的創新生態系統,支付發起方和inovabra獲得重大獎項。

  • Now let's take a look at the figures for the second quarter. Net Income for the quarter was BRL 4.5 billion, improving 5.6%. Income from insurance posted the most relevant positive contribution for the quarter as a result of a solid operational performance, including improvements in the claims ratio. Market NII has been following the path of recovery that we had predicted, making a positive contribution.

    現在讓我們看一下第二季度的數據。本季度淨利潤為 45 億雷亞爾,增長 5.6%。由於穩健的運營業績(包括索賠率的改善),保險收入為本季度做出了最相關的積極貢獻。市場NII一直沿著我們預期的複甦之路,做出了積極的貢獻。

  • Client NII had a negative impact, as did credit provision. We’ll show additional details on the upcoming slides. Now we're going to address our credit portfolio. It grew 1.6% year-on-year and fell 1.2% over the quarter. This performance reflects the ongoing restricted demand in light of interest rate levels and the adjustments we made to our credit policy in some portfolios, mainly in higher-risk segments, like lower-income individuals and micro and small companies.

    客戶 NII 產生了負面影響,信貸撥備也是如此。我們將在接下來的幻燈片中展示更多詳細信息。現在我們要討論我們的信貸投資組合。同比增長1.6%,環比下降1.2%。這一表現反映了利率水平持續限制的需求以及我們對某些投資組合信貸政策的調整,主要是低收入個人和小微企業等高風險領域。

  • In individuals, we would like to point out the growth in real estate financing, mortgage and cards, concentrated in high income. For corporates, we highlight firm loans. We have begun to gradually increase origination in some segments this quarter and we intend to continue to do so over the second half of the year, assuming that the vintages maintain the positive performance we have witnessed lately. As for guidance, considering the dynamics up to now, we opted to revise the growth indication, which now ranges from 1% to 5%.

    在個人方面,我們想指出房地產融資、抵押貸款和信用卡的增長,集中在高收入領域。對於企業,我們強調堅定貸款。本季度我們已開始逐步增加某些細分市場的產量,並打算在今年下半年繼續這樣做,前提是年份保持我們最近看到的積極表現。至於指導,考慮到目前的動態,我們選擇修改增長指標,目前範圍為 1% 至 5%。

  • As we mentioned, the new vintages have demonstrated an improved performance. The level of delay over 30 days 4 months after granting credits, the so-called mob4, is now almost 50% better than it was in December 2021. This has helped contain NPLs and has allowed us to expand origination in some products and segments. Credits originated from 2022 onwards, when we started adjusting our credit policies, now represent 53% of the portfolio and are, for the most part, a profile of lower risk. For example, secured loans represent 68% of new vintages for individuals.

    正如我們所提到的,新年份酒的性能有所改善。授予信貸後4 個月內超過30 天的延遲水平(即所謂的mob4)現在比2021 年12 月好近50%。這有助於遏制不良貸款,並使我們能夠擴大某些產品和細分市場的起源。信貸源自 2022 年起,當時我們開始調整信貸政策,現在佔投資組合的 53%,並且在很大程度上風險較低。例如,擔保貸款佔個人新年份貸款的 68%。

  • We saw R$ 10.3 billion in Credit Provision expenses over the quarter, representing a cost of risk of 4.8%. In this first six months, the actual is 52% of that I've indicated in the center of the guidance, which ranges from BRL 36.5 billion to BRL 39.5 billion. We believe that the guidance remains valid, although the annualized value points to the upper portion at this time. Still on credit provision, the balance reached BRL 60.2 billion, representing 9.6% of the credit portfolio.

    本季度信貸撥備支出為 103 億雷亞爾,風險成本為 4.8%。在前六個月中,實際金額是我在指南中心部分指出的 52%,範圍從 365 億雷亞爾到 395 億雷亞爾不等。我們認為,儘管年化價值目前指向上部,但該指引仍然有效。就信貸撥備而言,餘額達到 602 億雷亞爾,佔信貸組合的 9.6%。

  • Over the quarter, we once again posted a lower level of credit provision expenses under IFRS 9, which reflects expected losses. The NPL creation over the quarter came to BRL 11.6 billion, excluding the specific client effect. The still high level reflects the performance of older vintages. When we analyze coverage over the second quarter of 2023, and that's why we break it down by months, we see some stability in these indicators.

    本季度,我們根據 IFRS 9 再次公佈了較低水平的信貸撥備費用,這反映了預期損失。本季度不良貸款創造額達到 116 億雷亞爾,不包括特定客戶的影響。仍然較高的水平反映了較老年份的表現。當我們分析 2023 年第二季度的覆蓋範圍時(這就是我們按月進行細分的原因),我們發現這些指標具有一定的穩定性。

  • We emphasize the coverage excluding 100% provisioned credits, which is 244%. Exceptionally this quarter, we present the monthly delinquency, as this provides a clearer view of this indicator’s stabilizing trend. The short-term NPL showed some improvement in all segments and, in the graph for the over 90-day ratio, it is now possible to see the inflection of the curves even with the unfavorable denominator effect caused by the shrinking of the credit portfolio.

    我們強調不包括 100% 撥備積分的覆蓋範圍,即 244%。本季度我們特別報告了月度拖欠率,因為這可以更清晰地了解該指標的穩定趨勢。短期不良貸款在所有領域均有所改善,在90天以上比率的圖表中,即使信貸組合收縮造成不利的分母效應,現在也可以看到曲線的拐點。

  • I would also like to highlight the disclosure of NPL ratios without the impact of the specific client. Now on that interest income, the total NII was BRL 16.6 billion in this quarter. Market NII posted a new evolution compared to the previous quarter. This line will continue to gradually improve, with the recovery of bank's ALM. Clients NII dropped by 1.7% on an annual basis, reflecting the reduced volume and the 20 bps fall in the spread, which stood at 9.7%, due to the lower risk origination mix.

    我還想強調的是,不良貸款率的披露不受特定客戶的影響。就利息收入而言,本季度的 NII 總額為 166 億雷亞爾。與上一季度相比,市場 NII 出現了新的變化。隨著銀行ALM的恢復,這條線將繼續逐步完善。客戶NII同比下降1.7%,反映出交易量減少和利差下降20個基點(由於風險發起組合較低),利差為9.7%。

  • We have revised our projections for total NII, considering the trend we see for the rest of the year. The new guidance range includes growth between 2% and 6%. The fees line is a challenge for the entire market, and it’s no different for us. Cards income continues to perform well, driven by higher spending by our middle and high-income clients, groups in which we have recently increased penetration.

    考慮到今年剩餘時間的趨勢,我們修改了對總NII的預測。新的指導範圍包括 2% 至 6% 之間的增長。費用線對整個市場來說都是一個挑戰,對我們來說也不例外。由於中高收入客戶支出增加,我們最近在這些客戶群體中的滲透率有所提高,這推動了信用卡收入繼續表現良好。

  • For asset management, we are also adjusting our products and client offers and are already seeing signs of improvement. The other lines continue to be pressured by regulatory issues and markets' momentum. In this quarter, we had significant revenues in capital market operations and we expect that these revenues may be even more relevant in the second half of the year.

    在資產管理方面,我們也在調整我們的產品和客戶報價,並且已經看到了改善的跡象。其他線路繼續受到監管問題和市場勢頭的壓力。本季度,我們在資本市場運營方面獲得了可觀的收入,我們預計這些收入在下半年可能會更加重要。

  • We closed the first 6 months below the guidance floor, but we expect an improvement over the second half of the year, so we have kept the expectation for this line with an indication more towards the floor of this projection. Costs grew 11% year-to-date. Personnel expenses rose by 7.6%, driven by the last year collective agreement.

    我們在前 6 個月的收盤價低於指導下限,但我們預計下半年會有所改善,因此我們保持了對該線的預期,並表明更多地接近該預測的下限。今年迄今為止,成本增長了 11%。受去年集體協議的推動,人員費用增長了 7.6%。

  • Administrative expenses expanded 4.0%. The biggest impact on costs that we have been mentioning comes from the other expenses and revenues line, due to the lowest comparison base in 2022. We continue with tight control in expenses, adjusting our operation, structures and the cost-to-serve to allow better results without impacting customer service.

    行政開支增長 4.0%。我們提到的對成本的最大影響來自其他費用和收入項目,因為 2022 年的比較基數最低。我們繼續嚴格控制費用,調整我們的運營、結構和服務成本,以允許在不影響客戶服務的情況下獲得更好的結果。

  • If, on the one hand, we adjusted our guidance for credit growth and consequently, for NII, on the other hand, we are improving the guidance for operating expenses and insurance income, as we will discuss later. The guidance for expenses, which was 9 to 13%, now ranges from 7 to 11% reflecting our efficiency and control actions.

    如果一方面我們調整了對信貸增長的指導,那麼另一方面,對於NII,我們正在改進對運營費用和保險收入的指導,這一點我們將在稍後討論。費用指導從 9% 到 13%,現在從 7% 到 11%,反映了我們的效率和控制措施。

  • In the Insurance Group, our performance continues to evolve. Net Income for the quarter was BRL 2.4 billion, an increase of around 30% in quarterly and annual comparisons. The premiums growth and the improvement in claims ratio allow for a strong evolution on the operational side. The performance of the financial results was also positive.

    在保險集團,我們的業績不斷發展。本季度淨利潤為 24 億雷亞爾,與季度和年度相比增長約 30%。保費的增長和索賠率的提高使得運營方面發生了巨大的變化。財務業績的表現也很積極。

  • Income from operations is up 21.7% year-to-date and given this scenario, we revised the expectation for the year, which now ranges from 21 to 25%. Finally, we’ll talk about Capital and IoC. The Tier I capital ratio grew by 34 bps to 12.9%, primarily benefited by the cumulative profit for the period. The provisioned amount for interest on equity accumulated in the first half of the year posted a potential payout of 69% for the period.

    今年迄今為止,運營收入增長了 21.7%,考慮到這種情況,我們修改了今年的預期,目前的增長范圍為 21% 至 25%。最後,我們將討論資本和國際奧委會。一級資本比率增長34個基點至12.9%,主要受益於期內累計利潤。上半年累計計提的權益利息撥備金額,期內潛在支付率為69%。

  • Our liquidity position also remains quit comfortable, with LCR at 178%. I'm going to finish up the presentation and before moving on to the Q&A session, I'd like to point out that the revisions we've made to our projections reflect the operating dynamics we've seen up to this point. We know that we have important challenges in translating our commitment into better results and, therefore, you can be sure that we are committed to delivering a better performance every quarter.

    我們的流動性狀況也依然舒適,LCR 為 178%。我將完成演示,在進入問答環節之前,我想指出,我們對預測所做的修改反映了我們迄今為止所看到的運營動態。我們知道,在將我們的承諾轉化為更好的成果方面,我們面臨著重大挑戰,因此,您可以確信我們致力於每個季度提供更好的業績。

  • Now, I’ll join Cassiano and Firetti for the Q&A session.

    現在,我將與 Cassiano 和 Firetti 一起參加問答環節。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • We will begin the Q&A session we have Octavio and Cassiano, our CFO. We also have the President of the Insurance group, Ivan Gontijo, connected through -- by voice. You can ask questions in Portuguese or English. And the answer will always be in Portuguese. You have an option for simultaneous interpreting of questions in English into Portuguese.

    我們將開始問答環節,有奧克塔維奧和我們的首席財務官卡西亞諾。我們還有保險集團總裁 Ivan Gontijo 通過語音進行聯繫。您可以用葡萄牙語或英語提問。答案永遠是葡萄牙語。您可以選擇將英語問題同聲傳譯為葡萄牙語。

  • The recording will be available on our Investor Relations website. Octavio, shall we begin?

    錄音將在我們的投資者關係網站上提供。奧克塔維奧,我們開始吧?

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Yes. Let's keep the shell going.

    是的。讓我們讓 shell 繼續運行。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • The first question from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.

    第一個問題來自摩根大通的尤里·費爾南德斯。

  • Yuri Rocha Fernandes - Analyst

    Yuri Rocha Fernandes - Analyst

  • The first, please I'd like to understand the trajectory of credit provisions for 2024. I think it's clear what you mentioned in the presentation that it would be close to the top of the guidance. And there's a positive message in NPL. So I'd like to check if this is your opinion indeed.

    首先,我想了解 2024 年信貸撥備的軌跡。我認為您在演示文稿中提到的很清楚,這將接近指南的頂部。 NPL 中也傳遞出積極的信息。所以我想檢查一下這是否確實是您的意見。

  • But my question is for 2024, there is an expected loss. So as you grow origination, my doubt is whether if the growth of your originations will not increase ALL or credit provision? So if we have a peak of NPL, I'd like to understand the bank's vision or opinion for the next year in terms of the credit provision curve.

    但我的問題是,到 2024 年,預計會有損失。因此,當您增加起源時,我的疑問是您的起源的增長是否不會增加全部或信貸撥備?因此,如果不良貸款達到峰值,我想了解銀行對明年信貸撥備曲線的願景或意見。

  • And the second question regarding interest rate sensitivity. In the past, you would show sensitivity every 100 bps of Selic, would be BRL 1.4 billion. And I didn't see this, this time. Do you still measure the sensitivity of a reduction in the Selic interest rates?

    第二個問題是關於利率敏感性。過去,Selic 每 100 bps 就會顯示出靈敏度,即 14 億雷亞爾。這次我沒有看到這個。您是否仍然衡量Selic利率降低的敏感性?

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Yuri, thank you for the question. Yuri, as regard to provisions, it is a fact, the loan book growth was smaller because of a need to adjust for delinquency. The delinquency curves that you observed, well, we broke it down month by month so as to have transparency of the NPL curve. So there's a reduction in 15 to 90 days delinquency.

    尤里,謝謝你的提問。 Yuri,關於準備金,事實上,由於需要對拖欠率進行調整,貸款賬面增長較小。您觀察到的拖欠率曲線,我們逐月進行了細分,以便不良貸款曲線具有透明度。因此,拖欠天數減少了 15 至 90 天。

  • Over 90-day NPL, it seems we reached a peak because in recent months, it's been stable. It's not increasing. But still in July, we started having new loan originations. Of course, very cautiously, particularly for middle to high-income clients. That give us a good spread, a good margin.

    超過 90 天的不良貸款似乎已經達到了頂峰,因為近幾個月來一直保持穩定。它沒有增加。但還是在七月,我們開始發放新的貸款。當然,要非常謹慎,特別是對於中高收入客戶。這給我們帶來了良好的價差和利潤。

  • So we resumed these operations. We have an important pipeline in the wholesale bank, a very interesting pipeline for the second half of the year. And I believe that the country's economic conditions are signaling a good resumption in the second half and in 2024. Interest rates was reduced by half 0.5% by the Brazilian Central Bank. It seems to all of us that the drop in interest rates is a given, perhaps more than we and the market initially expected.

    所以我們恢復了這些操作。我們在批發銀行有一條重要的管道,這是下半年非常有趣的管道。我相信該國的經濟狀況預示著下半年和2024年將有良好的複蘇。巴西央行將利率降低了一半0.5%。在我們所有人看來,利率下降是必然的,也許比我們和市場最初預期的要大。

  • We were expecting 0.25%. It seems that it's going to [50] points, some people talk about an even greater reduction. So the whole outlook seems to be more positive for the second half of 2023 and also for 2024. With all the reforms that are in the pipeline, everything that is being talked about in Brazilian with a good outlook for the country, GDP growth, et cetera.

    我們預計為 0.25%。好像要到[50]點,有人說還要減少更多。因此,2023 年下半年和 2024 年的整體前景似乎更加樂觀。隨著所有正在進行的改革,巴西正在談論的一切都對國家前景、GDP 增長等持樂觀態度。等等。

  • Now of course, as we have new operations, we will need to provision for those. That's all correct, but lower provisions than the ones we have now linked to delinquency, particularly in the end of this cycle, Yuri. Because, as you know, from D to E, G to F, et cetera, this keeps on much greater. The percentages are a lot higher.

    當然,現在隨著我們有了新的業務,我們需要為這些業務做好準備。這都是正確的,但比我們現在與犯罪相關的規定要低,特別是在本週期結束時,尤里。因為,如您所知,從 D 到 E、G 到 F 等等,這種情況會持續更大。百分比要高得多。

  • So we see a reduction in credit provision that will happen -- that is happening given the final cycle of those delinquency that we had, this will allow us to have new credit provisions for the new operations. So if we look at the credit provision in the quarter, it was BRL 12 billion, right, Firetti? BRL 12 billion. So we're talking about BRL 4 billion a month of credit provisions.

    因此,我們看到信貸撥備將會減少——考慮到我們拖欠的最後一個週期,這種情況正在發生,這將使我們能夠為新業務提供新的信貸撥備。因此,如果我們看一下本季度的信貸撥備,就會發現是 120 億雷亞爾,對吧,Firetti? 120 億雷亞爾。所以我們談論的是每月 40 億雷亞爾的信貸準備金。

  • So we continue to saw provisions, given delays, particularly the long delays where the percentages are higher. And therefore, we can ensure have new operations with a much lower credit provision because we have better rating and better scores for these clients. So the percentage and the level of provision will be a lot smaller.

    因此,考慮到延誤,特別是百分比較高的長期延誤,我們繼續看到規定。因此,我們可以確保以更低的信貸撥備開展新業務,因為我們為這些客戶提供了更好的評級和更好的分數。因此提供的百分比和水平將會小很多。

  • As regard to your other question about NII sensitivity. If I'm not mistaken, BRL 900 million for every 100 points. This sensitivity is BRL 900 million.

    關於您關於NII敏感性的其他問題。如果我沒記錯的話,每 100 點積分 9 億雷亞爾。該敏感度為 9 億雷亞爾。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • Next question from Bernardo Guttmann with XP.

    Bernardo Guttmann 提出了關於 XP 的下一個問題。

  • Bernardo Guttmann

    Bernardo Guttmann

  • Two questions, number one, about portfolio growth. The starting point in the first quarter was low -- close to the low part of the guidance. So you would need to accelerate a lot to get close to the top of 5%. So I'd like to understand how do you intend to accelerate this? Do you have a lower appetite and more risky lines? What about corporate? Does it remain challenging? So where will the growth come from?

    第一個問題是關於投資組合增長的兩個問題。第一季度的起點較低——接近指引的低點。因此,您需要大幅加速才能接近 5% 的上限。所以我想了解您打算如何加速這一進程?您的胃口是否較低且風險較高?企業呢?它仍然具有挑戰性嗎?那麼增長從何而來?

  • Specifically in spot line items? And my second question has to do with the tax reform and the risks of the change. The proposals that have been discussed? And what is your base scenario, particularly regarding IoC? I'd like to have your opinion on this statement how you evaluate the risks.

    特別是在現貨訂單項中?我的第二個問題與稅收改革和變革的風險有關。已經討論過的提案?您的基本場景是什麼,特別是關於 IoC?我想听聽您對本聲明如何評估風險的看法。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Thank you, Bernardo, for the questions. Indeed, growth seems to be challenging. And we wanted to be transparent and fair with you. So it didn't sense to us to maintain a guidance of 6.5% to 9.5% with a 1.2% growth in our portfolio in the first 6 months, given the whole outlook, the whole context that we talked about.

    謝謝貝爾納多的提問。事實上,增長似乎充滿挑戰。我們希望對您保持透明和公平。因此,考慮到我們所討論的整體前景和整體背景,我們在前 6 個月投資組合增長 1.2% 的情況下維持 6.5% 至 9.5% 的指導是沒有意義的。

  • Nevertheless, we have observed and we have been seeing into new productions that we've been doing. Particularly, we've had portfolios with the best credit margins. We have 33 million account holders, as we mentioned, in addition to all the people who, one way or another, have a contact with the bank, more than 70 million people. So there is room for us to grow the book, particularly in those operations that are more profitable with the higher spread.

    儘管如此,我們已經觀察並一直在研究我們一直在製作的新作品。特別是,我們擁有具有最佳信用利潤的投資組合。正如我們提到的,我們有 3300 萬賬戶持有人,此外還有超過 7000 萬人以某種方式與銀行有聯繫。因此,我們的賬簿還有增長的空間,特別是在那些因點差較高而利潤更高的業務中。

  • And thus, we can accept a little more challenge in delinquency. So in terms of individuals growth, will come from these portfolios. Consumer credit, payable deductible loans, real estate financing as much as possible. So that's for individuals. Now, for legal entities, micro and small companies, so the ones that are suffering the most, and that's where we have the biggest delinquency challenges we showed in the charts.

    因此,我們可以接受更多一點的犯罪挑戰。所以就個人成長而言,將來自於這些投資組合。消費信貸、應付可抵扣貸款、房地產融資等盡可能多。所以這是針對個人的。現在,對於法人實體、微型和小型公司來說,這些公司遭受的損失最大,這就是我們在圖表中顯示的最大拖欠挑戰的地方。

  • But still, we have good clients there that we can operate with good secured loans, with -- bringing forward the receivables. So there's room to grow these portfolios as well. And in the wholesale bank, because of our strategic planning, we have a pipeline of the operations for the second half of the year.

    但我們仍然擁有良好的客戶,我們可以通過良好的擔保貸款來運營,並提前應收賬款。因此,這些投資組合也有增長的空間。在批發銀行方面,由於我們的戰略規劃,我們有下半年的運營渠道。

  • And we have a very robust pipeline for second half pipeline -- or second half of the year for large corporates and legal entities. And we see more momentum in the operations. This was in July, it's recent. But in July, we saw more momentum in fixed income and variable income deals. We had some follow-ons that were very successful 2, 3, 4x the book and with a price discount that was very small. So there's great expectations.

    我們有非常強大的下半年管道,或者大型企業和法人實體的下半年管道。我們看到運營勢頭更加強勁。這是七月份的事,也是最近的事情。但在 7 月份,我們看到固定收益和可變收益交易的勢頭有所增強。我們的一些後續產品非常成功,是本書的 2 倍、3 倍、4 倍,而且價格折扣非常小。所以人們有很大的期望。

  • Mainly IPOs that were in the draw, well, they are now coming back. We know, and you're right, the outlook is challenging. That's why we revised the guidance from 1% to 5%. If we talk about the mid guidance, we're talking about 3%. But we'll work to get at least the mid range of the guidance, but always with an expectation that we might have a higher demand for loan operations.

    主要是那些參與IPO的公司,現在它們又回來了。我們知道,你是對的,前景充滿挑戰。這就是我們將指導意見從 1% 修改為 5% 的原因。如果我們談論中期指導,我們談論的是 3%。但我們將努力至少獲得指導的中間範圍,但始終期望我們可能對貸款業務有更高的需求。

  • Perhaps we can pursue more loans so that we can get to the top range -- the top of the range of the guidance. Oh and regarding IoC, Bernardo, we practically have nothing. We haven't got the tax rate yet. We knew about the challenges. We have spoken about this with the government. We have spoken to them about the impact that will have on us, on the banks, but also on the market as a whole.

    也許我們可以尋求更多貸款,以便我們能夠達到最高範圍——指導範圍的頂部。哦,關於國際奧委會,貝爾納多,我們幾乎一無所有。我們還沒有得到稅率。我們知道其中的挑戰。我們已經與政府討論過此事。我們已經與他們討論了這將對我們、銀行以及整個市場產生的影響。

  • So there will be a lot of discussion. There will be a lot of meetings, committees will be formed so that we can address this in an adequate way to maintain the levels of profitability and results for our shareholders. But it is a challenge because to date, we haven't got anything formalized. Nothing was formalized regarding IoC, and nothing was formally submitted regarding IoC.

    所以會有很多討論。我們將會召開很多會議,成立委員會,以便我們能夠以適當的方式解決這個問題,以維持股東的盈利水平和業績。但這是一個挑戰,因為迄今為止,我們還沒有任何正式的東西。關於 IoC 沒有任何正式規定,也沒有任何關於 IoC 的正式提交。

  • But Bernardo, you if -- probably you've observed this, the contact with the government, interactions with the government are very positive, both with Roberto Campos in the Central Bank and Minister of Finance Haddad. We are trying to find a solution that is adequate for revolving credit, interest rates.

    但是貝爾納多,你可能已經觀察到了這一點,與政府的接觸、與政府的互動都是非常積極的,無論是與中央銀行的羅伯托·坎波斯還是財政部長哈達德。我們正在努力尋找適合循環信貸和利率的解決方案。

  • Even Minister Haddad yesterday said that a working group was formed with the participation of the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance, FEBRABAN, the Federation of Banks, to find another good solution, that in 90 days, the solution will not be a single solution because there's no easy solution for complex problems, but that within 90 days, they will present a solution that will at least address the situation. Credit card interest rates, particularly this portfolio -- this credit card portfolio, everybody complains and talks about interest rates are 400%. So this facilitated interaction with Brasilia. It was important so that we can have a high-level discussion -- high-level interaction with them. This is what we've been observing it. And I think that this will address -- well this will bring about a good discussion. The points will be put on the table so that we can find the best solution. And the best solution in the tax reform, trying to maintain profitability and company's ability to grow.

    就連哈達德部長昨天也表示,央行、財政部、FEBRABAN、銀行聯合會參與成立了一個工作組,尋找另一個好的解決方案,在90天內,該解決方案將不是單一的解決方案因為複雜的問題沒有簡單的解決方案,但在90 天內,他們將提出一個至少能解決問題的解決方案。信用卡利率,特別是這個投資組合——這個信用卡投資組合,大家抱怨和談論的利率都是400%。因此,這促進了與巴西利亞的互動。重要的是我們可以進行高層討論——與他們進行高層互動。這是我們一直在觀察的。我認為這將解決——嗯,這將帶來良好的討論。這些要點將放在桌面上,以便我們找到最佳解決方案。而最好的解決方案是稅制改革,試圖保持盈利能力和公司的成長能力。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • So our next question, Tito Labarta, Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題是高盛的 Tito Labarta。

  • Daer Labarta - VP

    Daer Labarta - VP

  • A couple of questions, I guess. Maybe one starting on profitability. In the past, you've mentioned getting back to around 18% ROE, maybe sometime end of next year. Just help us think about that potential evolution. What would need to happen to get back to that 18% ROE, and you're thinking about some of the headwinds that you're facing at the bank. You've talked a little bit about loan growth and credit quality pictures. Do you think you'll be able to grow your loan book sufficiently enough, asset quality improving up, particularly in a scenario of lower rates where you can get back to that 18% ROE? Is it still feasible to think end of next year, or is it more of a longer-term target? So that will be my first question.

    我想有幾個問題。也許是從盈利能力開始的。過去,您提到過要在明年年底的某個時候將 ROE 恢復到 18% 左右。請幫助我們思考潛在的演變。需要做什麼才能恢復 18% 的 ROE,您正在考慮銀行面臨的一些阻力。您已經談到了一些關於貸款增長和信用質量狀況的問題。您是否認為您的貸款賬簿能夠充分增長,資產質量得到改善,特別是在利率較低的情況下,您可以回到 18% 的 ROE 水平?明年年底考慮是否仍然可行,或者它更像是一個長期目標?這是我的第一個問題。

  • And then my second question, thinking about the competitive dynamics. The lower income segment because of credit quality issues and everything else has suffered a bit more and now you're going more into higher income segments. If you can help talk a little bit about how you see the different competitive dynamics and your advantages in between both lower income. And as you shift a little bit more into higher income and some challenges that you could face here.

    然後是我的第二個問題,關於競爭動態的思考。由於信用質量問題和其他一切問題,低收入群體受到的影響更大,現在你將更多地進入高收入群體。如果您可以幫忙談談您如何看待不同的競爭動態以及您在低收入之間的優勢。當你更多地轉向更高的收入時,你可能會在這裡面臨一些挑戰。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Tito, you're quite right, and I fully understand your question, of course, we're not delivering the results we wished to deliver and as you would expect, but we have a very well-defined path for us to gradually resume seeking those results. I think a series of factors contribute to this belief, to this work that we do to go back to having the results we had in the past.

    蒂托,你說得很對,我完全理解你的問題,當然,我們沒有提供我們希望提供的結果,正如你所期望的那樣,但我們有一個非常明確的路徑,讓我們逐步恢復尋求這些結果。我認為一系列因素促成了這種信念,促成了我們所做的工作,以回到過去取得的成果。

  • I think the market ALM issue is absolutely solved in the third quarter already with positive results, low but already positive and not negative as we had in 2022. And for 2024, the scenario is quite positive in terms of market ALM. As for credit, as you saw, me answering earlier, we already have better control of delinquency that happened due to a series of factors, economic factors and situational issues with the type of clients that we have, the profile of clients that are Bradesco clients and that combined to much better expectation that we see for the second half of the year and for 2024 as well.

    我認為市場ALM 問題在第三季度絕對得到解決,已經取得了積極的結果,雖然較低,但已經是積極的,而不是像2022 年那樣消極。而對於2024 年,就市場ALM 而言,情況相當積極。至於信貸,正如你所看到的,我之前回答過,我們已經更好地控制了由於一系列因素、經濟因素和我們所擁有的客戶類型、布拉德斯科客戶概況的情況問題而發生的拖欠行為。這與我們對下半年和 2024 年的預期要好得多。

  • Regarding what the Brazilian economy can be, we opened 2023 with economists talking about a GDP growth of 0.8%. And now we're talking about 2%, maybe 2.2% of GDP increase for 2023. And this will certainly carry a tail into 2024. '24 already indicates to have a better scenario interest rate, it's low, yes, of course, it's from [3.75% to 3.25%] it's small, but it's the beginning of a reduction. And the reduction of interest rate seems to be already a given the drop on the Selic rate is already agreed in a percentage that is higher than we expected from 25 bps to 50 bps, even higher maybe, so that also gives us very good expectations for the future. For what's going to unfold, the expectations we have for the year 2024 seems much better.

    關於巴西經濟的前景,我們在 2023 年伊始就談到了 GDP 增長 0.8%。現在我們談論的是 2023 年 GDP 增長 2%,也許是 2.2%。這肯定會拖到 2024 年。'24 已經表明有一個更好的情景利率,它很低,是的,當然,它是從[ 3.75%到3.25%]雖然很小,但這是減少的開始。考慮到 Selic 利率的下降幅度已經高於我們的預期,從 25 個基點到 50 個基點,甚至可能更高,因此降息似乎已經成為可能,因此這也給我們帶來了非常好的預期未來。對於即將發生的事情,我們對 2024 年的期望似乎要好得多。

  • So I think all of these variables combined give us the expectation that we will have a better second half of '23 and a year 2024 also better with lower delinquency, better growth of loan portfolios with quality, with IPOs and follow-ons already coming in and being able to increase revenues, the insurance company has been going through a good phase. In the second quarter, it made BRL 25 billion in the half year, it's already been BRL 50 billion. So we're working hard to close the year with a higher income above BRL 100 billion.

    因此,我認為所有這些變量結合在一起,讓我們預計 23 年下半年和 2024 年將會更好,拖欠率更低,貸款組合的質量增長更好,IPO 和後續項目已經開始由於能夠增加收入,保險公司已經經歷了一個良好的階段。第二季度,半年賺了250億雷亞爾,目前已經達到500億雷亞爾。因此,我們正在努力以超過 1000 億雷亞爾的更高收入結束這一年。

  • Of course, it had benefited from the indices, IGPM and IPCA, but what we see is the operating growth of Bradesco Seguros in all segments, either private pension plans that already has a positive uptake, the auto sector and property and casualty, also improving in reduction of claims, even health with all the challenges. Despite the challenges of service costs, we're able to bring new customers, new companies to our portfolio. So the insurance company also has very good expectations. We see a brand with relevant growth in their portfolio with relevant growth in the funds under management, and they are ranked as one of the best asset managers from the end of last year, the beginning of this year.

    當然,它受益於指數、IGPM 和 IPCA,但我們看到的是 Bradesco Seguros 在所有領域的運營增長,無論是已經獲得積極採用的私人養老金計劃、汽車行業以及財產和傷亡險,也在改善減少索賠,甚至健康面臨所有挑戰。儘管面臨服務成本的挑戰,我們仍然能夠為我們的投資組合帶來新客戶、新公司。所以保險公司也抱有很好的期望。我們看到一個品牌在其投資組合中實現了相關增長,管理的基金也實現了相關增長,並且從去年年底到今年年初,他們被評為最佳資產管理公司之一。

  • So looking at the whole macroeconomic scenario and the work we've been developing here at the bank, we do see the possibility of us going back to the results we had in the past. It will be gradual, yes, but we're working to make it happen, and it certainly will. So I think that's a little bit of what we expect for the second half of '23 and for the year '24.

    因此,縱觀整個宏觀經濟形勢以及我們在銀行開展的工作,我們確實看到了回到過去結果的可能性。是的,這將是漸進的,但我們正在努力實現它,而且它肯定會發生。所以我認為這只是我們對 23 年下半年和 24 年的預期。

  • As for the competitive scenario, especially on lower income, Tito you know inflation is a huge plague for the Brazilian population. And it's the majority of our clients, the people who are 70% of Bradesco's clients. And at this point, these people are more affected in the purchasing capacity and the payment capacity, and that translates into delinquency, as we see here clearly, but as the country starts to get a better condition for GDP growth, we're seeing unemployment at lower levels. So I believe that our competitive advantage and our comparative basis to continue to grow in this segment as well, despite all the competition, especially from digital banks that are competing with us, and some of them did well. They're doing good work. And that's also important the competitive scenario in Brazil. So I think we're well positioned to also grow in that market with product placement, credit placement at the right rate and the right size of credit. So it is a competitive scenario. It's big, quite large, but that we understand we are well positioned to compete.

    至於競爭情況,特別是在收入較低的情況下,蒂托,你知道通貨膨脹對巴西人民來說是一個巨大的瘟疫。這是我們的大多數客戶,即 Bradesco 70% 的客戶。在這一點上,這些人的購買能力和支付能力受到更大的影響,這會轉化為拖欠行為,正如我們在這裡清楚地看到的那樣,但隨著國家開始獲得更好的GDP 增長條件,我們看到失業處於較低水平。因此,我相信,儘管存在所有競爭,尤其是來自與我們競爭的數字銀行,而且其中一些銀行表現出色,但我們在這一領域的競爭優勢和比較基礎也會繼續增長。他們做得很好。巴西的競爭格局也很重要。因此,我認為我們也有能力通過產品植入、適當利率和適當信貸規模的信貸投放來在該市場實現增長。所以這是一個競爭場景。它很大,相當大,但我們知道我們處於競爭的有利位置。

  • As for higher income, at our last earnings conference call, I talked to you, and we said that our high-income vertical, as we also showed in today's presentation, we have total focus and a priority in the high income vertical when we put everything under Guilherme, taking care of high income, and we combined private, top tier, prime as well as our Agora brokerage, high -- digital high income that's also evolving quite well. Our bank in the United States, in Europe, we added capital $230 billion (sic) [$230 million] of capital in the United States to be able to grow on loan operations there as well. There's a lot of room for that. And now we recently launched My Account last month actually. And My Account also gives us expectations because everything is aligned under the same vertical, not to mention our brand Bradesco Asset. That's also a part of this process.

    至於更高的收入,在我們上次的收益電話會議上,我和你談過,我們說我們的高收入垂直領域,正如我們在今天的演示中所展示的那樣,當我們把Guilherme 領導下的一切,照顧高收入,我們結合了私人、頂級、優質以及我們的Agora 經紀業務,高數字高收入,也發展得很好。我們在美國和歐洲的銀行,我們在美國增加了 2300 億美元(原文如此)[2.3 億美元]的資本,以便能夠在當地的貸款業務上實現增長。有很大的空間。實際上,我們最近在上個月推出了“我的帳戶”。 “我的帳戶”也給了我們期望,因為一切都在同一垂直領域下對齊,更不用說我們的品牌 Bradesco Asset 了。這也是這個過程的一部分。

  • So I think that this vertical with this quality, with this capacity that these businesses have to evolve during '23 and '24, they'll be consolidating and bring better profitability. And now more recently, this week, yesterday or the day before, we were the winners and will be the partners for Amazon here in Brazil to issue their credit card. This will be officially launched on the 8th, but they released the information yesterday. So Bradesco will be the issuer of Amazon cards here and they're a quality brand that is respected around the world. So I believe we have very good expectations when we look at what was done in terms of the market ALM, the better control of delinquency and the expectations for growth that we have for 2023 and '24.

    因此,我認為,這些企業必須在 23 年和 24 年期間發展這種具有這種質量和能力的垂直行業,它們將進行整合併帶來更好的盈利能力。最近,這週、昨天或前天,我們成為了獲勝者,並將成為亞馬遜在巴西發行信用卡的合作夥伴。這個要8號才會正式上線,不過他們昨天就發布了這個信息。因此,布拉德斯科將成為這里亞馬遜卡的發行商,他們是一個在世界範圍內受到尊重的優質品牌。因此,我相信,當我們審視市場 ALM 方面所做的工作、更好地控制拖欠行為以及我們對 2023 年和 24 年的增長預期時,我們有非常好的期望。

  • Cassiano Ricardo Scarpelli - Executive VP of Director & Member of Executive Board

    Cassiano Ricardo Scarpelli - Executive VP of Director & Member of Executive Board

  • Octavio, if I can add, in lower income, it's important to mention, as you said in the presentation as well. Next, the work that we did with next, bringing this to the bank. It's a synergy. We have 2 strong brands next and Bradesco for this digital native clients and starting their banking journal -- journey, and that also contributes to access and competitiveness in the lower income market. So this strategy is along with all the others that Octavio mentioned in our high-income vertical and our repositioning that's focused on this customer-centric and principality.

    奧克塔維奧,如果我可以補充一下,在收入較低的情況下,值得一提的是,正如您在演示中所說的那樣。接下來,我們接下來要做的工作是將其帶到銀行。這是一種協同作用。我們有 2 個強大的品牌 Next 和 Bradesco,為這些數字原生客戶提供服務,並開始他們的銀行日記——旅程,這也有助於提高低收入市場的准入和競爭力。因此,這一戰略與奧克塔維奧在我們的高收入垂直領域以及我們的重新定位中提到的所有其他戰略一起,重點是以客戶為中心和公國。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • And that's very important. In Bradesco alone, we opened 50,000 accounts on mobile every day. So every day -- we're talking here about 300,000 accounts. And next is no different. On next, we opened 4,000 accounts per day. 4 million -- 5 million clients that we have that are active on next that was incorporated into Bradesco.

    這非常重要。僅在布拉德斯科,我們每天就在移動設備上開設 50,000 個賬戶。因此,我們每天都在談論大約 300,000 個帳戶。接下來也不例外。接下來,我們每天開設 4,000 個賬戶。我們擁有 400 萬至 500 萬客戶,他們活躍於下一個合併到 Bradesco 的客戶中。

  • And it does not have any more all the costs it did, and it now becomes an expression for our heavy digital user clients to have a digital bank to call theirs even if they don't have -- if they don't like Bradesco, particularly, they have a digital bank available with all products and services that Bradesco can offer. But with that face, with the feel, the journey, that is of next. In addition to the digital bank that is a completely separate thing with very important partnerships. They work with partnerships in credit cards, payment accounts, and they have a partnership with Uber. There's more than 1 million clients that are Uber partners, Uber drivers, who already have digital accounts. So this scenario shows you a little bit of our activities on low income as well.

    它不再有以前的所有成本,現在它成為我們的重度數字用戶客戶的一種表達方式,即使他們沒有數字銀行,也可以打電話給他們——如果他們不喜歡布拉德斯科,特別是,他們擁有一家數字銀行,提供Bradesco 可以提供的所有產品和服務。但有了那張臉,有了感覺,有了旅程,那就是下一個。除了數字銀行之外,這是一個完全獨立的事物,具有非常重要的合作夥伴關係。他們與信用卡、支付賬戶合作,還與 Uber 建立了合作夥伴關係。超過 100 萬客戶是 Uber 合作夥伴、Uber 司機,他們已經擁有數字賬戶。因此,這個場景也向您展示了我們針對低收入的一些活動。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • Our next question Daniel Vaz, Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題是瑞士信貸的 Daniel Vaz。

  • Daniel, can you hear us?

    丹尼爾,你能聽到我們說話嗎?

  • Daniel Vaz - Research Analyst

    Daniel Vaz - Research Analyst

  • Sorry, my microphone was muted. I'd like to talk a little bit about asset quality. We saw here in the presentation that the new vintages already take 53% of the loan portfolio and individual concessions are already 58%. And we can say that there is a level of a portfolio with a new risk profile, but NPL creation is stable at higher levels. So loss when we look at what was expected on IFRS for the portfolio increased. So I'd like to understand from you how to read these indicators correctly vis-a-vis expectation of portfolio increase. Is it possible to increase the portfolio without these indicators rising or at least remaining stable? What would be the new mix or new risk profile, or if you must make any additional correction on originations so that these indicators drop, considering the portfolio increase you're aiming for next year. I'd like to explore this with you. And if you can help us read this correctly.

    抱歉,我的麥克風已靜音。我想談談資產質量。我們在演示中看到,新年份已佔貸款組合的 53%,個人優惠已佔 58%。我們可以說,投資組合的風險狀況存在一定水平,但不良貸款的產生在較高水平上保持穩定。因此,當我們查看 IFRS 對投資組合的預期時,損失增加了。因此,我想向您了解如何正確解讀這些指標以及投資組合增長的預期。是否有可能在這些指標不上升或至少保持穩定的情況下增加投資組合?新的組合或新的風險狀況是什麼,或者您是否必須對起源進行任何額外的修正,以便這些指標下降,考慮到您明年的投資組合增加目標。我想和你一起探討這個問題。如果您能幫助我們正確閱讀此內容。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Daniel, thank you for your question. Indeed, you're right, but that's what I said. At the end of this cycle, when you carry over more provision, that skipping of ladders when it goes from 10 to 30 to 50 to 70 to 100, the provision volume end up higher here, although the credit provision volume for new operations is not as high because they are operations that come at a better rating or score. So that balances our capacity to continue to grow, increasing our credit and accelerating as we expect and want to accelerate without having an increase on credit provision expenses, we're running at 3.5% to 4% per month, but a majority of this are the operations of the older vintages that are closing their formation cycle and (inaudible) gap.

    丹尼爾,謝謝你的問題。確實,你說得對,但那是我說的。在這個週期結束時,當你結轉更多的準備金時,當它從10到30到50到70到100時跳過階梯,這裡的準備金數量最終會更高,儘管新業務的信貸準備金數量並沒有增加。之所以如此高,是因為它們是具有更高評級或分數的操作。因此,這平衡了我們繼續增長的能力,增加了我們的信貸,並按照我們的預期和希望在不增加信貸撥備支出的情況下加速,我們每月的利率為3.5% 至4%,但其中大部分是老年份葡萄酒的運營正在縮小其形成周期和(聽不清)差距。

  • Now on expected losses, that's the concepts that we use, and that's why in every presentation, we show this to you, and this will be enforced now in 2025 -- in January '25. So we're always looking at that and showing it to you through the expected loss concept because that's how we're able to better see it. So a better origination of a better portfolio with clients with better ratings and scores as you already mentioned, already gives us a good dimension of the work that we're seeking to do to increase our credit portfolio.

    現在,關於預期損失,這就是我們使用的概念,這就是為什麼在每次演示中,我們都會向您展示這一點,這將在 2025 年(25 年 1 月)強制執行。因此,我們一直在關注這一點,並通過預期損失概念向您展示,因為這樣我們才能更好地看到它。因此,正如您已經提到的,與具有更好評級和分數的客戶更好地創建更好的投資組合,已經為我們提供了一個良好的工作維度,我們正在尋求增加我們的信貸投資組合。

  • And on the other hand, it also benefits those operations to have bigger spreads. That means they can take a little bit more of delinquency, but on the other hand, bring credit -- higher credit revenues. So I think this balance that we're trying to achieve and implement over the second half of the year and 2024 will allow us to get the portfolio to -- the credit portfolio to grow because there will be a demand for credit. This seems pretty certain with the reduction of interest rates and increase on the GDP and employment going down will allow us to grow our loan portfolio without increasing or maybe even reducing the credit provision expenses that we see for the year 2023 because it is still carrying over expenses with delinquency provisions of ALL.

    另一方面,擁有更大的點差也有利於這些業務。這意味著他們可以承擔更多的拖欠行為,但另一方面,也可以帶來信貸——更高的信貸收入。因此,我認為我們在今年下半年和 2024 年努力實現和實施的這種平衡將使我們的投資組合——信貸投資組合得以增長,因為將會有信貸需求。這似乎相當確定,隨著利率降低、GDP 增長和就業下降,我們將能夠在不增加甚至減少 2023 年信貸撥備支出的情況下擴大貸款組合,因為它仍在結轉包含 ALL 拖欠條款的費用。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • It's also worth mentioning that NPL formation has already given clear indications of stability in the last quarter. We believe it will begin to drop. The NPL flow to formation also goes through this negotiation process and renegotiation with the client that also delays the natural flow from those older vintages that have already given some indication of deterioration. So I believe this cycle is flowing. We believe that soon, we'll be able to get better news in formation as well.

    還值得一提的是,上季度不良貸款的形成已經給出了穩定的明確跡象。我們相信它將開始下降。 NPL 流向形成也經歷了與客戶的談判過程和重新談判,這也延遲了那些已經出現一些惡化跡象的較舊年份的自然流動。所以我相信這個循環正在流動。我們相信很快我們也將能夠獲得更好的消息。

  • Next question from Rafael Frade with Citi Group.

    下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Rafael Frade。

  • Rafael Berger Frade - Research Analyst

    Rafael Berger Frade - Research Analyst

  • I have 2 questions. One, building on the comment made by Firetti regarding renegotiation. I don't know, maybe I overlooked this in the previous quarter, but I believe that you negotiated very little in portfolios that were less than 90 days past due. But in this quarter, you mentioned almost 50% of the renegotiation came in the portfolio of less than 90 days past due. So I'd like to know when did this change happen? And please elaborate on the rationale for this change. How do you see this renegotiation that is somewhat earlier.

    我有 2 個問題。第一,以Firetti關於重新談判的評論為基礎。我不知道,也許我在上個季度忽略了這一點,但我相信你們在逾期 90 天以內的投資組合中談判得很少。但在本季度,您提到近 50% 的重新談判來自逾期 90 天以內的投資組合。所以我想知道這個變化是什麼時候發生的?請詳細說明這一變化的理由。您如何看待這次較早的重新談判?

  • And the second question regarding the Insurance operation, you posted a relevant improvement in the operation this quarter and in the guidance for the year. But I also noticed the reversal of provisions, specifically in the line item, other provisions in life and pensions. So I'd like to know does this help explain the improvement -- I'd like to understand this reduction in provisions. And if this helps explain the improvement in the yearly guidance, and perhaps how this will be in 2024 because you're not going to have this kind of reversal.

    關於保險業務的第二個問題,您在本季度的運營和今年的指導中發布了相關的改進。但我也注意到規定的逆轉,特別是在該項目、人壽和養老金的其他規定中。所以我想知道這是否有助於解釋改進——我想了解規定的減少。如果這有助於解釋年度指導的改善,也許 2024 年情況會如何,因為不會出現這種逆轉。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Thank you, Rafael. Well, Rafael, regarding the NPL that Firetti mentioned, we have always worked with the negotiation with clients. Comparatively, can I recover? How much can I recover in that past-year portfolio? Is it best to sell this portfolio because they can get a better of price for it? But you will remember that given the interest rates and the interest rates hike, some of portfolios became more difficult because the prices were no longer attractive. It has indeed happened, and we did not sell a lot of portfolios because it didn't make business sense to us because we would get a better price if we renegotiated and in credit recovery, you can bring more money in and have better results. So indeed, we focus more on renegotiations, collecting from clients, particularly in loans that are not very much past due. Because when it's long past due, we can renegotiate easier and more easily. Also the fact that we are not selling the portfolios because the prices were not attractive.

    謝謝你,拉斐爾。嗯,Rafael,關於Firetti提到的NPL,我們一直在與客戶進行談判。相比之下,我還能恢復嗎?我可以從去年的投資組合中收回多少資金?出售該投資組合是否是最好的選擇,因為他們可以獲得更好的價格?但您會記得,考慮到利率和利率上漲,一些投資組合變得更加困難,因為價格不再有吸引力。這確實發生了,我們沒有出售大量投資組合,因為這對我們來說沒有商業意義,因為如果我們重新談判,我們會得到更好的價格,並且在信貸恢復中,你可以帶來更多的錢並獲得更好的結果。因此,事實上,我們更注重重新談判,向客戶收取費用,特別是那些沒有太多逾期的貸款。因為當逾期已久時,我們可以更輕鬆地重新談判。此外,我們不會出售投資組合,因為價格不具吸引力。

  • And all along, we said that we would make a comparison between the advantages of selling the portfolio, and what we can collect internally. So this is a business that has to be profitable or else it does not make sense. And so we are focused more on recovering the loans from our clients, and this is what led to this effect that you yourself mentioned.

    一直以來,我們都說我們會比較出售投資組合的優勢和我們內部可以收集到的東西。所以這是一項必須盈利的業務,​​否則就沒有意義。因此,我們更加關注從客戶那裡收回貸款,這就是導致您自己提到的這種效果的原因。

  • In addition to improving the modeling -- predictive modeling to understand and identify the patients that have more ability to pay and so we can recover their loan, and this is about NPL.

    除了改進模型之外,預測模型還可以理解和識別有更多支付能力的患者,這樣我們就可以收回他們的貸款,這就是不良貸款。

  • Regarding the Insurance company, Ivan Gontijo, the CEO of the Insurance group is here. Ivan would you like to comment on Rafael's question?

    關於保險公司,保險集團首席執行官伊万·貢蒂霍(Ivan Gontijo)在這裡。伊万,你想對拉斐爾的問題發表評論嗎?

  • Ivan Luiz Gontijo - MD

    Ivan Luiz Gontijo - MD

  • Of course. Rafael, thank you for the question. And based on your question, you mentioned the improvement of our guidance and the robust balance sheet of the Insurance group.

    當然。拉斐爾,謝謝你的提問。根據您的問題,您提到了我們指導的改進以及保險集團穩健的資產負債表。

  • Before addressing directly your question, I would like to highlight based on what you said, our sustainable growth, better revenue that is noteworthy given the joint integrated work of co-management among the companies and the several departments of the Insurance group. We are market leaders in insurance, pension plans and capitalization bonds. Better results of our operations, very robust sales. BRL 51 billion in the first half. A better claims ratio, but a mix of products with new products, more tailored to the regions, better processes, aiming to serve our clients, better -- and particularly an improvement of fundamentals.

    在直接回答你的問題之前,我想根據你所說的強調,考慮到保險集團各公司和多個部門之間共同管理的聯合綜合工作,我們的可持續增長和更好的收入值得注意。我們是保險、養老金計劃和資本債券領域的市場領導者。我們的運營業績更好,銷售非常強勁。上半年為 510 億雷亞爾。更好的索賠率,但產品與新產品的組合,更適合地區,更好的流程,旨在更好地服務我們的客戶 - 特別是基本面的改善。

  • Focusing on the people also of the Insurance group. So to your question, in the technical provision line item that you mentioned, well these are for -- in addition to the specific contract results to face the future commitments of the Insurance group while also considering the economic assumptions and the actuarial assumptions reflecting the best estimate for the portfolios. To give an idea, the behavior of IGPM influences this line item that you mentioned, this line item of provisions. In fact, we always form our provisions based on the best market practices, particularly concentrate IFRS-17 and the standards in effect for the Seguros public insurance group were established about 40 years ago, and we are always focused on the sustainability of the business and aiming to better serve our clients and the perennial behavior of the Insurance operation.

    還關注保險集團的人員。因此,對於你的問題,在你提到的技術條款項目中,除了具體的合同結果之外,還考慮了保險集團未來的承諾,同時還考慮了反映最佳情況的經濟假設和精算假設。投資組合的估計。舉個例子,IGPM 的行為會影響您提到的這一行項目,即規定的這一行項目。事實上,我們始終根據最佳市場實踐制定我們的規定,特別是 IFRS-17 和 Seguros 公共保險集團的現行標準大約 40 年前製定,我們始終關注業務的可持續性和旨在更好地服務我們的客戶和保險業務的常年行為。

  • So I'd like to draw your attention to the fact that in the end of July, the Insurance group posted BRL 340 billion and I stress billion BRLs of provisions. So this gives us a lot of comfort, and it gives us peace of mind to continue in this path that the Bradesco organization decided to start about 40 years ago, and they will continue.

    因此,我想提請您注意這樣一個事實:7 月底,保險集團公佈了 3400 億雷亞爾的準備金,我強調準備金為 10 億雷亞爾。所以這給了我們很大的安慰,讓我們安心地繼續走布拉德斯科組織大約 40 年前決定開始的這條道路,他們也會繼續下去。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • Next question. By Mario Pierry with Bank of America.

    下一個問題。作者:Mario Pierry,美國銀行。

  • Mario Lucio Pierry - MD in Equity Research

    Mario Lucio Pierry - MD in Equity Research

  • I have 2 questions. Number one, looking at the new guidance of expenses. It is implicit that expenses will remain flat in the second half compared to the first half. So any new measures to (inaudible) the bank to contain expenses? Where do you see this improvement in the guidance?

    我有 2 個問題。第一,看看新的支出指南。與上半年相比,下半年的支出將基本持平。那麼銀行有什麼新措施(聽不清)來控制開支嗎?您在指南中哪裡看到了這種改進?

  • Second question, I'd like to elaborate because you mentioned that you're going to be issuing credit cards for Amazon. And I'd like to understand the economics of this product. If the credit risk is on you? And if you could elaborate on that, it would be very appreciated.

    第二個問題,我想詳細說明一下,因為你提到你將為亞馬遜發行信用卡。我想了解該產品的經濟效益。如果信用風險在你身上?如果您能詳細說明這一點,我們將不勝感激。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Mario, and thank you for the first question. The second question, I won't be able to elaborate a lot. But I'll tell you whatever I can. Regarding the guidance of expenses, I would like Cassiano to speak a little bit about this and then I'll add if necessary.

    馬里奧,謝謝你提出第一個問題。第二個問題,我無法詳細說明。但我會盡我所能告訴你。關於費用指導,我想請卡西亞諾講一下,如果有必要的話我會補充。

  • Cassiano Ricardo Scarpelli - Executive VP of Director & Member of Executive Board

    Cassiano Ricardo Scarpelli - Executive VP of Director & Member of Executive Board

  • Thank you, Mario, for the question. Well, the guidance of expenses, let's remember what we have been systematically reporting to the market in means of strong cost control of the organization, and this continues. Expense lines, both administrative expenses and personnel expenses. Well, that's under control because of the work that we've been doing. This has to do with our cost to serve so that we can have a good control of expenses, even considering our collective agreement in September. Still, we have expenses under control.

    謝謝馬里奧的提問。好吧,費用指導,讓我們記住我們一直在通過組織強有力的成本控製手段向市場系統地報告什麼,並且這種情況還在繼續。費用項目,包括行政費用和人事費用。嗯,由於我們一直在做的工作,情況已經得到控制。這與我們的服務成本有關,以便我們能夠很好地控制開支,即使考慮到我們九月份的集體協議。儘管如此,我們還是控制了開支。

  • Operating expenses are making some difference. But in the second half, they are coming down to the normal range. So we are convinced that when we changed the guidance, we are right in the middle of the guidance to know -- and we'll note that our expenses are always under control. We don't see a lot of variation. We understand that we are on the right path of maintaining expenses flat or stable in the second half of the year.

    運營費用產生了一些影響。但到了下半場,他們就回落到正常範圍。因此,我們確信,當我們改變指導意見時,我們就在指導意見的中間,我們會注意到我們的費用始終處於控制之中。我們沒有看到太多變化。我們知道,我們正走在下半年保持支出持平或穩定的正確道路上。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Yes, and Mario, let me add to what Cassiano said. Of course, we are continuously making adjustments in our network of branches. You will see that on the fact that we closed down branches, but we changed the branches. We -- either we merged some that were very physically closed or we turned a conventional branch that has a lot more costs, guard -- security guards, revolving doors, et cetera. We turned them into a branch that has a lot less fixed costs and fixed expenses. Follow up since last year, this work has been starting in 2021 -- 2022 we started doing that. In 2023, in the second half. There's about 100 or 150 branches that will be transformed, but we'll continue on that path.

    是的,馬里奧,讓我補充一下卡西亞諾所說的內容。當然,我們的分支機構網絡也在不斷調整。你會看到,我們關閉了分支機構,但我們改變了分支機構。我們要么合併了一些物理上非常封閉的分支機構,要么轉變為傳統分支機構,其成本、保安、旋轉門等成本更高。我們把它們變成了一個固定成本和固定費用少得多的分支機構。從去年開始跟進,這個工作從2021年開始——2022年我們就開始做。 2023年,下半年。大約有 100 或 150 個分支將被改造,但我們將繼續這條道路。

  • There is also the progress of Bradesco Expresso with 41,000 points. So we can ensure our process in the cities, but it's all based on variable cost. So we don't have that problem of cost increase. If we have a cost increase, it's because we have a much higher additional revenue flowing in. So this gives us a lot of comfort, a lot of peace of mind to adapt the expense guidance and to say that our expenses should be in the middle -- midrange of the guidance. And as for the Amazon, Mario, you will forgive me, but we cannot say anything. But what I can tell you is that the credit risk is ours. But with the total autonomy of Bradesco.

    Bradesco Expresso 也取得了 41,000 分的進步。所以我們可以確保我們在城市的流程,但這都是基於可變成本。所以我們不存在成本增加的問題。如果我們的成本增加,那是因為我們有更高的額外收入流入。所以這給了我們很大的安慰,讓我們安心地調整費用指導並說我們的費用應該在中間——指導的中段。至於亞馬遜,馬里奧,你會原諒我,但我們不能說什麼。但我可以告訴你的是,信用風險是我們的。但布拉德斯科擁有完全自主權。

  • Now the other aspects of the business, you will forgive me, but this will be launched on August 8 with the presence of the Amazon Board and our Bradesco people as well. The launch will be on August 8. And during that event, more details will be disclosed. I shouldn't be talking more about that. On August 8, we'll be able to speak more about this. They will present all the economics. And if you want a meeting, [Harsha] the VP of cards can meet with you, can you give you all of the information as long -- or soon as we have disclosed the business with Amazon, which is our partner in this business. They're wonderful partner, this is a wonderful partnership. We're very happy to have them as partners in Brazil for the issuance of cards. And other than that, I cannot disclose anymore. Thank you very much.

    現在業務的其他方面,請原諒我,但這將於 8 月 8 日啟動,亞馬遜董事會和我們 Bradesco 人員也將出席。發布會將於 8 月 8 日舉行。屆時,更多細節將被披露。我不應該再多談這個。 8 月 8 日,我們將能夠對此進行更多討論。他們將介紹所有的經濟學。如果您想要會面,[Harsha] 卡片副總裁可以與您會面,您可以向您提供所有信息嗎?或者在我們披露與亞馬遜(我們在該業務的合作夥伴)的業務後立即向您提供所有信息。他們是很棒的合作夥伴,這是一個很棒的伙伴關係。我們很高興能與他們成為巴西的發卡合作夥伴。除此之外,我不能再透露了。非常感謝。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • Thank you Mario for your questions. Next from Juan Recalde from Scotiabank. So we will go to the next question and then if Juan reconnect, we will go back to him. Next question, Thiago Batista, UBS.

    謝謝馬里奧的提問。接下來是豐業銀行的胡安·雷卡爾德 (Juan Recalde)。所以我們將進入下一個問題,然後如果胡安重新連接,我們將回到他那裡。下一個問題是蒂亞戈·巴蒂斯塔(Thiago Batista),瑞銀集團。

  • Thiago Bovolenta Batista - LatAm Equity Research Analyst of Banks

    Thiago Bovolenta Batista - LatAm Equity Research Analyst of Banks

  • I have 2 questions. The first about (inaudible). There's been 1 month of the program. I'd like to understand a little bit of the impacts that this second phase of (inaudible) will have on Bradesco, if it's going to lead to a drop of NPL or if you can give us a view of the impact we expect to see both in the bank and overall.

    我有 2 個問題。第一個關於(聽不清)。該計劃已經進行了1個月。我想了解一下第二階段(聽不清)將對布拉德斯科產生的影響,是否會導致不良貸款下降,或者您能否讓我們了解我們期望看到的影響無論是在銀行還是整體上。

  • And my second question also in terms of regulation. In July, we had that change in the risk factor, the bank has already improved since the fourth quarter of last year. But how do you see the impact of this capital regulation change, how much can it add 50 bps, 100 of the magnitude, if you can give us after this new regulation.

    我的第二個問題也是關於監管方面的。 7月份,我們發現風險因素發生了變化,銀行自去年第四季度以來已經有所改善。但是你如何看待這個資本監管變化的影響,它能增加多少50個基點,100個幅度,如果你能告訴我們這個新監管之後的情況。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Thiago, hello, it's a pleasure to have you here about (inaudible) the operations are of low amounts. We're talking about the second phase, Thiago, where the person still has to negotiate directly with their creditor, either the bank or the store, whatever it is. So what we've seen is that there has been an increase in renegotiation operations of that -- which we already had around 8% to 9%, the daily volume of renegotiations. That's the first 12, 13 days that it -- since it started.

    蒂亞戈,你好,很高興你能來到這裡,因為(聽不清)業務量很小。我們談論的是第二階段,蒂亞戈,這個人仍然必須直接與債權人(銀行或商店,無論是什麼)進行談判。所以我們看到的是,重新談判操作有所增加——我們已經有大約 8% 到 9% 的每日重新談判量。這是它開始以來的前 12、13 天。

  • In this first phase, there was an exclusion of 620,000 default accounts of up to BRL 100. Now for client to normally pay for their operations so that they don't go back into the status. But the amounts are low, so it's not going to really effect in [NPL] that much because these are operations that have already been written off. It doesn't really change anything so much at this first moment and in this scenario.

    在第一階段,排除了 620,000 個高達 100 雷亞爾的默認賬戶。現在,客戶可以正常支付其操作費用,這樣他們就不會回到原來的狀態。但金額很低,因此不會對[不良貸款]產生太大影響,因為這些業務已經被沖銷。在第一時刻和這種情況下,它並沒有真正改變任何事情。

  • But what we can see, Thiago, the people that we were trying to reach in order to collect, it was impossible and we couldn't with this (inaudible) at least they went there collect on the website they showed to try to see the conditions they have, and then we were able to renegotiate or get something back, but it's small. It doesn't really change NPL that much. As for capital base, Basel, as you said, we have been improving this quarter is a little bit better. And now we have this new legislation that started in July from the Central Bank, the impact will be from [0.20 to 30], so 20 to 30 bps, and it was implemented on July 1. So the initial impact is that it will be from 20 to 30 bps.

    但我們可以看到,蒂亞戈,我們試圖聯繫以收集的人,這是不可能的,我們不能這樣做(聽不清),至少他們去了他們展示的網站上收集,試圖看到他們擁有的條件,然後我們能夠重新談判或收回一些東西,但它很小。它並沒有真正改變NPL那麼多。至於資本基礎,巴塞爾,正如你所說,我們一直在改善,本季度稍微好一點。現在我們從央行7月開始實施這項新立法,影響將從[0.20到30],即20到30個基點,並於7月1日實施。所以最初的影響是從 20 到 30 bps。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • Let's go back then to an Juan Recalde from Scotiabank.

    讓我們回到豐業銀行的胡安·雷卡爾德 (Juan Recalde)。

  • Juan Ignacio Recalde - Associate

    Juan Ignacio Recalde - Associate

  • Can you hear me now?

    你能聽到我嗎?

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Cassiano Ricardo Scarpelli - Executive VP of Director & Member of Executive Board

    Cassiano Ricardo Scarpelli - Executive VP of Director & Member of Executive Board

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Juan Ignacio Recalde - Associate

    Juan Ignacio Recalde - Associate

  • My question is related to the fees and commissions. As you reiterated the guidance of the growth of 2% to 6%. But in the first half, the change was year-on-year, the change was negative 0.5%. So I was wondering if you can talk about what will drive the stronger fee income in the second half, where it's going to be card income, asset management, checking accounts or any color on that would be helpful.

    我的問題與費用和佣金有關。正如您重申的增長2%至6%的指導。但上半年,同比變化為負0.5%。所以我想知道你是否可以談談什麼會推動下半年費用收入的增長,卡收入、資產管理、支票賬戶或任何其他方面的收入都會有所幫助。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Okay, Juan. Thank you for your question. So Juan, we're below the guidance in terms of fees, and this is a business that really struggles with regulation, governmental decisions, the central bank's decisions. There is some asymmetry in that sense. And sometimes, a lot of dissemination on social media for fees to be canceled because there's the essential package by the Central Bank. So there's always a lot of offenders for us to grow.

    好吧,胡安。謝謝你的問題。所以,胡安,我們在費用方面低於指導,這是一個真正與監管、政府決策、央行決策作鬥爭的企業。從這個意義上講,存在一些不對稱性。有時,社交媒體上會大量傳播取消費用的信息,因為中央銀行推出了重要的一攬子計劃。所以總是有很多罪犯需要我們成長。

  • In order to grow in fees, there's no other way other than growing in volume, increasing client base, strongly increase the bank's client base. And that's what we've been doing. I talked to -- I mentioned briefly about the growth in accounts open on mobile, even the accounts next to this 4,000 accounts per day and in all these cases, seeking to generate benefits to the clients so that they see that the fee is not just an expense that they have, but that the fee will bring them additional benefits. So they paid the fee, for example, to have a subscription of a streaming channel or maybe Disney channel or Disney+, rather, and some partnerships that we're making to make this fee more attractive for the clients so that they can perceive not only the work behind it and the quality of the services provided by the bank, but also additional benefits to our clients so that we can retain them. And that's a good point.

    為了增加費用,除了增加交易量、增加客戶群、大力增加銀行的客戶群之外,別無他法。這就是我們一直在做的事情。我曾簡要提到過移動賬戶的增長,甚至是每天 4,000 個賬戶旁邊的賬戶,在所有這些情況下,我都在尋求為客戶帶來利益,以便他們看到費用不僅僅是他們有一項費用,但這筆費用會給他們帶來額外的好處。因此,他們支付了費用,例如訂閱流媒體頻道或迪士尼頻道或迪士尼+,以及我們正在建立的一些合作夥伴關係,以使這筆費用對客戶更具吸引力,以便他們不僅可以感知其背後的工作和銀行提供的服務質量,而且還為我們的客戶帶來額外的好處,以便我們能夠留住他們。這是一個很好的觀點。

  • Bradesco asset has been doing a good job increasing the portfolio and the assets managed there with new funds with performance rates, the administration fees due to the reduction of interest rates in the past, administration fees went down, but once interest rates went up, administration fees did not increase and they won't increase. So you need to work with other funds that include the performance fee because that's how you can get additional revenue and our brand has been developing good work in that sense with credit funds that send out in the market.

    布拉德斯科資產一直做得很好,增加了投資組合,並用新基金管理的資產具有績效率,由於過去利率降低,管理費下降了,但一旦利率上升,管理費就下降了。費用沒有增加,也不會增加。因此,您需要與包括績效費在內的其他基金合作,因為這是您獲得額外收入的方式,而我們的品牌一直在通過市場上發放的信貸基金開展良好的工作。

  • So to summarize, Juan, I tell you that we need to gain scale. We need to get more clients, more products and services to be able to add products and services that have a high perception of value for our customers, and that's how we can think about fees. So it is a challenging guidance, but we understand that. Considering this greater volume, the growth on client base and fees that come from other areas in the bank, we understand it is possible, first, to seek at least the lower level of the guidance in fee revenue.

    總而言之,胡安,我告訴你,我們需要擴大規模。我們需要獲得更多的客戶、更多的產品和服務,以便能夠添加對客戶具有高價值認知的產品和服務,這就是我們考慮費用的方式。因此,這是一個具有挑戰性的指導,但我們理解這一點。考慮到數量的增加、客戶群的增長以及來自銀行其他領域的費用,我們理解,首先,至少可以尋求較低水平的費用收入指導。

  • Another important point that you mentioned earlier, Octavio, in the market -- in the capital market operations, we understand there is stronger traction in that in the second half of the year, and that has been contributing to our fee income. July was very good. We also need to look at high income and cards, spent has also been working well. And [Tivio] that's an association that we formed recently with Banco do Brasil that adds that other work that you mentioned about BRAM. So it's all of these aspects, and we cannot forget an important point, Juan, which is credit. If the credits are retracted the fee revenue also retracts and now to -- as what Octavio said now we'll be more comfortable to seek at least a lower level of the guidance.

    奧克塔維奧,您之前提到的另一個要點是,在市場方面,在資本市場運營方面,我們知道下半年會有更強的牽引力,這對我們的費用收入做出了貢獻。七月非常好。我們還需要看看收入和卡高,花掉了也得到了很好的效果。 [Tivio] 這是我們最近與巴西銀行成立的一個協會,它添加了您提到的有關 BRAM 的其他工作。所以這是所有這些方面,我們不能忘記重要的一點,胡安,那就是信用。如果積分被收回,費用收入也會收回,現在正如奧克塔維奧所說,我們將更願意尋求至少較低水平的指導。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • (Operator Instructions) Next question from Eduardo Rosman with BTG.

    (操作員說明)下一個問題來自 Eduardo Rosman 和 BTG。

  • Eduardo Rosman - Analyst

    Eduardo Rosman - Analyst

  • Actually, I'd like to ask a follow-up question regarding the insurance company, I believe the results was very solid. It's sufficed positively everyone. We are expecting weaker results albeit with some improvement. It was not 100% clear to me because there was a upbeat difference quarter-on-quarter and that leap -- is it the new bottom line level for the insurance group looking for it or could we expect more improvement. I just would like to have a clear notion regarding that.

    其實我想問一個關於保險公司的後續問題,我相信結果是非常紮實的。每個人都已經足夠了。我們預計結果會較弱,儘管會有一些改善。我並不是 100% 清楚,因為季度環比和這一飛躍存在令人樂觀的差異——這是否是保險集團尋求的新底線水平,或者我們是否可以期待更多改進。我只是想對此有一個明確的概念。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Ivan, can you answer Eduardo's question. Just to confirm your previous answer regarding additional provisions as you mentioned. And then I will add something.

    Ivan,你能回答Eduardo 的問題嗎?只是為了確認您之前關於您提到的附加條款的回答。然後我會添加一些內容。

  • Ivan Luiz Gontijo - MD

    Ivan Luiz Gontijo - MD

  • Thank you, Octavio, and thank you Eduardo for the question. Your question unlike Rafael's question is more geared to the future. And I would like to say that we changed our guidance from 21% to 25%. But we did it under a lot of thought. And this is based on the fact that in the first half, we achieved the mark of 21.5%, so it could be different for the second half materially if we consider the improvement in the commercialization part.

    謝謝奧克塔維奧,也謝謝愛德華多提出的問題。你的問題與拉斐爾的問題不同,它更適合未來。我想說的是,我們將指導值從 21% 更改為 25%。但我們是經過深思熟慮才做到的。這是基於上半年我們取得了21.5%的成績,所以如果我們考慮到商業化部分的改進,下半年可能會有所不同。

  • We made some changes in the commercial department of the insurance group in the beginning of this year. And this has started showing excellent fruit in the first half of the year. And in our earnings clearly show that BRL 51 billion as I mentioned, but actually, in the second half, we expect to reap the [facts] and the fruits of this commercial operation. We will be working on the bancassurance in a differentiated fashion. And we believe that in the second half, we're going to reap even more fruit, and additional increments of the commercial channel than now.

    今年年初,我們對保險集團的商務部門進行了一些調整。今年上半年已經開始結出優異的果實。正如我所提到的,我們的收益中清楚地表明了 510 億雷亞爾,但實際上,我們預計在下半年將收穫[事實]和這種商業運作的成果。我們將差異化開展銀行保險業務。我們相信下半年我們會收穫比現在更多的成果,商業渠道的增量也會比現在更多。

  • We’ll work together with the net channel but separately also with the strategy that we developed. This will happen in the ecosystem of each company. This was implemented in the first half. And again, we can see the positive effect, and it will continue. This project, which we call Project Bravo, bringing the market channel to the inside of the company's travel equipment and performance and we'll make performance improved even further in the second half of the year. So some businesses will evolve given the sales to companies.

    我們將與網絡渠道合作,但也會單獨與我們制定的戰略合作。這將發生在每個公司的生態系統中。這是上半年實施的。再次,我們可以看到積極的影響,而且這種影響將會持續下去。這個項目我們稱之為Project Bravo,把市場渠道引入到公司的出行裝備和業績內部,下半年我們會讓業績進一步提升。因此,一些業務將會隨著對公司的銷售而發展。

  • Looking -- what we are thinking we're considering a higher NII and its continuity in the second half. We will maintain the loss ratio, the claims ratio at this level or even lower. And all of these are positive effects together with the product mix and expansion of the margin. All of that gives us comfort and now I address your question. This gives us comfort to increase the guidance. And it gives us the hope that we will achieve definitely that, for sure, even better results in the second half. I'm not sure, I answered your question.

    看看——我們正在考慮更高的NII 及其在下半年的連續性。我們將把損失率、索賠率維持在這個水平甚至更低。所有這些都是產品組合和利潤擴大的積極影響。所有這些都讓我們感到安慰,現在我回答你的問題。這讓我們放心增加指導。這給了我們希望,我們一定會在下半年取得更好的成績。我不確定,我回答了你的問題。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Rosman, allow me just add to what Ivan said, the sales, the revenue of the insurance group will be greater than BRL 100 billion. And this is the result of the work that insurance group has been doing led by Ivan and had an important reduction in the claims ratio. And you know that every percentage point of reduction in claims ratio is fundamental. There was a positive impact. The [IGPN] was negative and the increase in sales. To give you an idea, Ivan did a work to the development of digital journeys. And this year, we'll have more than 2 million items set in mobile devices, just something (inaudible), so of course I wish and we will work to continue to maintain the kind of revenue for the coming years. In the insurance company because of this growth and because of the independence, which one of the verticals of the insurance group, as mentioned by Ivan.

    羅斯曼,請允許我補充一下伊万所說的,保險集團的銷售和收入將超過 1000 億雷亞爾。這是伊万領導的保險集團一直以來所做工作的結果,索賠率大幅下降。你知道,索賠率每降低一個百分點都是至關重要的。產生了積極的影響。 [IGPN] 為負且銷售額增加。為了給您提供一個想法,Ivan 做了一項數字旅程開發的工作。今年,我們將在移動設備上設置超過 200 萬個項目,只是一些(聽不清),所以我當然希望,我們將努力在未來幾年繼續保持這種收入。正如伊万所提到的,保險公司由於這種增長和獨立性,成為保險集團的垂直行業之一。

  • Ivan Luiz Gontijo, Jr.

    Ivan Luiz Gontijo, Jr.

  • And if you allow me what I do, Rosman, the fundamentals of the insurance group, if you look at our balance sheet, give us comfort to have a very objective prospective outlook of the future, very positive outlook for the future.

    羅斯曼,如果你允許我做的話,保險集團的基本面,如果你看看我們的資產負債表,會讓我們感到安慰,對未來有一個非常客觀的預期前景,對未來的前景非常積極。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • Next question of Arnon Orzes Shirazi with Santander. Let's move to the next. Renato Meloni from Autonomous.

    Arnon Orzes Shirazi 與桑坦德銀行的下一個問題。讓我們繼續下一步。來自 Autonomous 的雷納托·梅洛尼 (Renato Meloni)。

  • Renato Meloni

    Renato Meloni

  • (inaudible)

    (聽不清)

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • I'm sorry, Renato. We cannot hear you at all. Your voice was very metallic, Renato are you there? Okay, let's go to Pedro Leduc and we'll come back to Renato later. Okay?

    對不起,雷納托。我們根本聽不到你說話。你的聲音很有金屬感,雷納託你在嗎?好的,我們去找佩德羅·勒杜克,稍後再回到雷納托。好的?

  • Next question from Pedro Leduc with Itau.

    下一個問題是佩德羅·勒杜克 (Pedro Leduc) 向伊塔烏 (Itau) 提出的。

  • Pedro Leduc - Research Analyst

    Pedro Leduc - Research Analyst

  • Firetti, a quick question regarding the guidance we give for NII. 7 to 11 now 6 to 10. And since this guidance was disclosed, CDI curve moved in a favorable position regarding market NII. And still, this total line was reviewed down. I think it has to do with the portfolio. So what do you expect regarding client NII? Because it seems considering a drop in CDI, still you revise this down. It seems that there was a deterioration in client NIMs for the coming quarters. Is this a fair statement. And how will this evolve for 2024?

    Firetti,關於我們為 NII 提供的指導的一個簡單問題。 7 至 11 現在為 6 至 10。自該指引披露以來,CDI 曲線移動至市場 NII 的有利位置。儘管如此,這條總線還是被下調了。我認為這與投資組合有關。那麼您對客戶端 NII 有何期望?因為看起來考慮了CDI的下降,所以你還是把這個下調了。未來幾個季度的客戶淨息差似乎有所惡化。這是一個公平的說法嗎?到 2024 年,情況將如何演變?

  • Cassiano Ricardo Scarpelli - Executive VP of Director & Member of Executive Board

    Cassiano Ricardo Scarpelli - Executive VP of Director & Member of Executive Board

  • Okay. Pedro, thank you for the question. As we have been seeing the market NII, yes, it has a constant gradual growth towards the second half. And the main offender for changing the guidance continues to be the loan book. We would strongly -- to hold back on loans in the first half, we reviewed all of our policies and now in June, July and August, this is changing. We understand that we can accelerate, but not as it was before, even though they're feasible. We recognize that the loan book grows less than the previous guidance. The market portfolio is recovering, the market NII is helping us in this indicator but it is not enough for it to reach the total of the first guidance.

    好的。佩德羅,謝謝你的提問。正如我們所看到的市場NII,是的,它在下半年持續逐漸增長。改變指導方針的主要罪魁禍首仍然是貸款簿。我們強烈希望在上半年抑制貸款,我們審查了所有政策,現在在六月、七月和八月,這種情況正在改變。我們知道我們可以加速,但不能像以前那樣,儘管它們是可行的。我們認識到貸款賬簿的增長低於之前的指導。市場投資組合正在復蘇,市場NII正在幫助我們實現這一指標,但還不足以達到第一個指導的總和。

  • So credit still at an important level. We are now opening short-term portfolios, loans for individuals. We believe, we have a higher spread and again hold a lower credit provision. So this is what we are doing. We're doing it, but cautiously and gradually, but this mix in market improvement and when we ended the balance sheet, that interest rate reduction was not guaranteed, but this is coming and the interesting prospective cycle is coming up, particularly for 2024. But undoubtedly, credit and credit granting will guide us in the NII guidance.

    因此信用仍然處於重要水平。我們現在正在為個人開設短期投資組合和貸款。我們相信,我們擁有更高的利差,並且再次持有更低的信貸撥備。這就是我們正在做的事情。我們正在這樣做,但謹慎而漸進,但市場改善和我們結束資產負債表時的這種組合,並不能保證降息,但這即將到來,有趣的預期週期即將到來,特別是 2024 年。但毫無疑問,信貸和信貸授予將在國家信息基礎設施指導中為我們提供指導。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • The market NII, as Cassiano mentioned, tends to recover. I think this is a given, it will improve in the second half of the year. And hopefully, we'll end the positive level in the second half, slightly positive, perhaps even in the next quarter, and it will continue to gradually improve along to 2024. And I think that the resumption of the loan book as Cassiano mentioned will be the biggest driver looking forward. .

    正如卡西亞諾提到的,市場NII趨於復蘇。我認為這是既定的,下半年會有所改善。希望我們能在下半年結束積極水平,稍微積極,甚至可能在下個季度,並將繼續逐步改善,直到 2024 年。我認為,卡西亞諾提到的貸款簿的恢復將成為未來最大的推動者。 。

  • So now we'll go back to Arnon Shirazi from Santander. We'll turn to Renato Meloni from Autonomous.

    現在我們將從桑坦德回到阿農設拉子。我們將請來 Autonomous 的雷納托·梅洛尼 (Renato Meloni)。

  • Renato Meloni

    Renato Meloni

  • I apologize. I'd like to talk about your view. When you talk about the recovery for the coming quarters. If you look at Selic rate for next year with the offer of 9%, can we talk at a level of 18%, especially the competitive view that's very different from the past.

    我道歉。我想談談你的看法。當您談論未來幾個季度的複蘇時。如果你看看明年的Selic費率為9%,我們可以在18%的水平上談談嗎,尤其是與過去截然不同的競爭觀點。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Thank you for your question, Renato. So Renato, we understand that this moment of a reduction of ROE that occurred is a situational aspect, not structural. So of course, that the change in the market and change in -- changing people's consumption habits has structural aspects that the bank needs to adapt to, and that's what we've been doing since the pandemic. And I remembered in the last meeting that we had -- in the last meeting, that before the pandemic, every day, the bank would make 1 million authentications at the teller. And now it's 90,000. So we went from 1 million every day, 200,000 and 100,000 to 90,000 authentications at the teller.

    謝謝你的提問,雷納托。因此,雷納托,我們知道,ROE 下降的這一時刻是情境性的,而不是結構性的。當然,市場的變化和人們消費習慣的變化具有銀行需要適應的結構性方面,這就是我們自大流行以來一直在做的事情。我記得在上次會議上,在上次會議上,在大流行之前,銀行每天都會在櫃員處進行 100 萬次身份驗證。現在是90,000。因此,我們在櫃員處進行的身份驗證從每天 100 萬次、20 萬次、10 萬次增加到 9 萬次。

  • So there's a change in the market in terms of relationship with the customers and people's consuming habits that influence how they consume products and services. That requires you to make structural changes that are essential, as I said, the change to the types of our branches, the reduction in size, the adoption of business units for advisory and service to our clients, no longer a branch for back-office service or account payment or bill payment.

    因此,市場與客戶的關係以及人們的消費習慣發生了變化,影響了他們消費產品和服務的方式。這需要你做出必要的結構性改變,正如我所說,改變我們分支機構的類型,縮小規模,採用業務部門為客戶提供諮詢和服務,而不再是後台分支機構服務或帳戶付款或賬單付款。

  • Many processes that we've been developing in the bank with negative -- or as you saw last week, some negotiations we have with some partners with quantum computing, the structural change we had on Next that is no longer an expense line or rather a strong investment line, but becoming -- bringing it into the bank so that it can bring the expense close to 0 and make the most of all the synergies between Next and Bradesco preserving for the clients, especially lower income or heavy user clients or younger clients to have an option of having a digital bank for themselves through Next, which has a different visual look than Bradesco the way that they want. So there are, in fact, structural changes that may be -- that must be and are being implemented.

    我們在銀行開發的許多流程都是負面的——或者正如你上週看到的,我們與一些量子計算合作夥伴進行了一些談判,我們在Next 上進行的結構性改變不再是費用線,而是一個強大的投資線,但正在成為——將其引入銀行,以便可以使費用接近於0,並充分利用Next和Bradesco之間的所有協同效應,為客戶,特別是低收入或重度用戶客戶或年輕客戶保留可以選擇通過 Next 為自己建立一家數字銀行,該銀行的視覺外觀與他們想要的 Bradesco 不同。因此,事實上,可能會發生結構性變化,這些變化必須並且正在實施。

  • And a good trigger for that was what ended up happening with the pandemic that changed completely these relationships as well as the entry of new competent competitors that require us to go through substantial change in relationship. And as I showed you, 98% of relationships with clients with us go through the mobile service. So these are structural changes that we have been evolving and developing, creating through new methodologies for the development of systems through partners, the [agile villas, cards], and that is structural, and we have been implementing it quite well.

    一個很好的觸發因素是最終發生的大流行徹底改變了這些關係,以及新的有能力的競爭對手的進入,要求我們對關係進行重大改變。正如我向您展示的,我們 98% 的客戶關係都是通過移動服務實現的。因此,這些是我們一直在發展和發展的結構性變化,通過合作夥伴(敏捷別墅、卡片)開發系統的新方法來創建,這是結構性的,我們一直很好地實施它。

  • Now in terms of ROE, as I said, well, that was a situation that happened in terms of market ALM and delinquency that affected is Market ALM, I believe, as Firetti said, is done, it's solved. The third quarter, fourth quarter, it will be positive again, 2024 with much better expectations in terms of results, interest rates going down. We have portfolios formed with better rates. So that help improves the conditions. So it's hard to pinpoint when Renato, but we've been working. We are working quarter-over-quarter to deliver an ROE at the levels we delivered in the past. You can be sure of that, and we will continue to pursue the resumption of that ROE that we used to deliver up to 2 years ago.

    現在就 ROE 而言,正如我所說,這是在市場 ALM 方面發生的情況,而受影響的是市場 ALM 的拖欠,我相信,正如 Firetti 所說,已經完成,已經解決了。 2024 年第三季度、第四季度將再次呈現正值,業績預期會好得多,利率會下降。我們的投資組合具有更好的利率。這樣有助於改善條件。所以很難確定雷納托是什麼時候開始的,但我們一直在努力。我們正在逐季努力,以實現過去水平的股本回報率。您可以確信這一點,我們將繼續努力恢復兩年前所提供的交戰規則。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • And now we'll turn to Carlos Gomez from HSBC.

    現在我們請來匯豐銀行的卡洛斯·戈麥斯。

  • Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Senior Analyst, Latin America Financials

    Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Senior Analyst, Latin America Financials

  • I wanted to ask about the tax rate. It was particularly low this quarter, 8%. What do you expect for the rest of the year? And what should we expect as a normalized tax rate without any changes to interest on capital of course.

    我想問一下稅率。本季度這一比例特別低,為 8%。您對今年剩餘時間有何期望?當然,在資本利息沒有任何變化的情況下,我們應該期待什麼樣的標準化稅率。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • So Carlos, the tax rate is at a very low level due to the fact that the earnings level is lower. So the effect of the IOC leads this rate to be at a lower level. In addition, as you have been seeing, there's also greater participation of the insurance company in the total of the bank's results. The insurance company has a lower rate. So based on all that, we would say that a range -- a reasonable range for tax rates would be from 10% to 14%.

    所以卡洛斯,由於收入水平較低,稅率處於非常低的水平。所以IOC的影響導致這個比率處於較低水平。此外,正如您所看到的,保險公司在銀行業績總額中的參與度也更高。保險公司的費率較低。基於此,我們認為合理的稅率範圍是 10% 到 14%。

  • Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Senior Analyst, Latin America Financials

    Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Senior Analyst, Latin America Financials

  • That's for this year. What about when things normalize, when things have recovered.

    這是今年的事。當一切正常化、恢復時又如何呢?

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • So looking forward as the results increase, and take on the maintenance of the structure we have today with IOC -- the IOC tax yield will cut last from the tax. So the tax rate will normally increase. So I'd say that when we go back to the levels of ROE that we had in the past, our rate will also go back to the levels we had in the past.

    因此,展望未來,隨著結果的增加,並承擔我們今天與國際奧委會的結構的維護——國際奧委會的稅收收益將最後從稅收中削減。所以稅率通常會增加。所以我想說,當我們回到過去的淨資產收益率水平時,我們的比率也將回到過去的水平。

  • Now we have a question by Nicolas Riva with Bank of America.

    現在我們有美國銀行尼古拉斯·里瓦 (Nicolas Riva) 提出的問題。

  • Nicolas Alejandro Riva - VP in Credit Research & Research Analyst

    Nicolas Alejandro Riva - VP in Credit Research & Research Analyst

  • So my question on your AT1 capital. So I see about BRL 14 billion, AT1 capital on the balance sheet. I understand this has all been raised in the domestic market. So I wanted to ask what are the important call dates for this AT1 capital and what's your plan if you plan to refinance this as well in the local market. I do not recall any local AT1 issuance this year after the Americanas event. And then in general, how do you see your funding needs -- your dollar funding needs. I think historically, you have shown a preference more to issue locally rather than issuing dollars and hedge back to reals. But if you can give us kind of your updated thoughts in terms of the dollar funding.

    我的問題是關於你的 AT1 資本。所以我在資產負債表上看到大約 140 億雷亞爾,AT1 資本。據我了解,這一切都是在國內市場提出的。所以我想問一下 AT1 資本的重要贖回日期是什麼?如果您也計劃在當地市場對其進行再融資,您的計劃是什麼。我不記得今年 Americanas 活動之後有任何本地 AT1 發行。然後總的來說,您如何看待您的資金需求——您的美元資金需求。我認為從歷史上看,您更傾向於在本地發行而不是發行美元並對沖雷亞爾。但如果您能給我們提供有關美元融資的最新想法。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • Thank you, Nicolas. As regard that in capital AT1 instruments. We have about 1.5% which is our limit. To us, it is the efficient limit. We do not need to have any additional issuances. We have an opportunity to issue the whole AT1 in the local market here at costs with the structure that we consider to be very adequate in BRL which to us brings a lot of efficiency in terms of not requiring hedge. So we do not have any big call event coming up. So this limit has been used, and we will maintain these issuances here in the local market. We do not see any room for new issuances, particularly in the international market via AT1. Now as for debt instruments of dollar funding needs, I will turn the floor to Cassiano because he knows a lot about this.

    謝謝你,尼古拉斯。至於資本 AT1 工具。我們大約有 1.5%,這是我們的極限。對我們來說,這就是效率極限。我們不需要任何額外的發行。我們有機會在當地市場以成本價發行整個 AT1,其結構我們認為非常適合巴西雷亞爾,這對我們來說在不需要對沖方面帶來了很大的效率。所以我們不會有任何重大的通話事件發生。所以這個限額已經被使用了,我們將在當地市場維持這些發行。我們認為沒有任何新發行的空間,特別是通過 AT1 在國際市場上。現在至於美元融資需求的債務工具,我將請卡西亞諾發言,因為他對此了解很多。

  • Cassiano Ricardo Scarpelli - Executive VP of Director & Member of Executive Board

    Cassiano Ricardo Scarpelli - Executive VP of Director & Member of Executive Board

  • Thank you, Nicolas. At the international level at this point, we don't see the right conditions again. It all depends on market condition. We still have a high CDIs in the interest rates abroad. When we compare local and international issuance, local issuance considering the high Selic rate is still better than international conditions. But we look at this, every single day. So if we see an opportunity that is beneficial to -- that will benefit us with international funding, we will consider that. But right now, local conditions are better.

    謝謝你,尼古拉斯。目前在國際層面,我們還沒有看到合適的條件。這一切都取決於市場狀況。我們國外的利率仍然很高。當我們比較本地和國際發行時,考慮到較高的Selic利率,本地發行仍然優於國際條件。但我們每天都會關注這一點。因此,如果我們看到一個對國際資金有利的機會,我們就會考慮這一點。但現在,當地的條件更好了。

  • Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

    Carlos Wagner Firetti - IR Officer

  • Thank you Nicolas. And with that, we are ending the Q&A session. Questions that are not answered during this call will be answered by our Investor Relations team. Before I turn the floor to Octavio for his final statements, I'd like to remind you that in our IR website you will find this presentation as well as all of the materials related to our earnings release. Octavio, thank you for the presentation and have the floor.

    謝謝尼古拉斯。至此,我們的問答環節就結束了。本次電話會議期間未回答的問題將由我們的投資者關係團隊回答。在我請奧克塔維奧發表最後陳述之前,我想提醒您,在我們的投資者關係網站上,您可以找到此演示文稿以及與我們的收益發布相關的所有材料。奧克塔維奧,謝謝您的介紹,請發言。

  • Octavio de Lazari

    Octavio de Lazari

  • Thank you Firetti, thank you Cassiano and thank all of you, in particular, for joining us for your participation and attention. I hope that we have answered all of your questions. I'd like to thank also Ivan Gontijo who joined us online. And hopefully, we have answered all of your questions. But if you have any pending questions, if you need more detail on any topic, whatsoever, please get in touch with us, Firetti and our whole IR team (inaudible) will be available to speak with you. Thank you very much for your attention. Enjoy your weekend, and have a great rest of day.

    謝謝Firetti,謝謝Cassiano,特別感謝你們所有人加入我們的參與和關注。我希望我們已經回答了您的所有問題。我還要感謝在線加入我們的 Ivan Gontijo。希望我們已經回答了您的所有問題。但如果您有任何懸而未決的問題,如果您需要有關任何主題的更多詳細信息,請與我們聯繫,Firetti 和我們的整個 IR 團隊(聽不清)將隨時與您交談。非常感謝您的關注。享受你的周末,度過美好的一天。

  • [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]

    [本筆錄中的英語陳述是由現場通話中的口譯員說出的。]