Banco BBVA Argentina SA (BBAR) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BBVA Argentina's second quarter 2026 results conference call. Today with us are Mrs. Belen Fourcade, Investor Relations Manager; Diego Cesarini, IRO and Head of Assets and Liability Management; and Carmen Morillo Arroyo, CFO. This presentation and the second quarter 2026 earnings release are available on BBVA Argentina's Investor Relations website, ir.bbva.com.ar, and will also be available for download in the chat.

各位早安，歡迎參加 BBVA 阿根廷 2026 年第二季業績電話會議。今天與會者包括投資人關係經理 Belen Fourcade 女士；投資人關係主管暨資產負債管理部門主管 Diego Cesarini；以及財務長（CFO）Carmen Morillo Arroyo。本簡報與 2026 年第二季財報新聞稿已公布於 BBVA 阿根廷投資人關係網站 ir.bbva.com.ar，並將於聊天室提供下載。

First of all, let me point out that some of the statements made during this conference call may be forward-looking statements with the meaning of the Safe Harbor provision found in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 under US federal securities law.

首先我要指出，本次電話會議中部分陳述可能構成前瞻性陳述，其意義符合美國聯邦證券法《1933 年證券法》第 27A 條所載之「安全港」條款。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in BBVA Argentina's annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year 2025 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. I will now turn the call over to Belén Fourcade. Please go ahead.

這些前瞻性陳述受到風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所表達者出現重大差異。關於上述因素的更多資訊，載於 BBVA 阿根廷向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交之 2025 會計年度 Form 20-F 年報。接下來我將把電話會議交給 Belén Fourcade。請開始。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for BBVA Argentina's second quarter 2026 results conference call. During the second quarter of 2026, inflation continued to decline, reinforcing expectations that this trend will further consolidate. This environment should support a recovery in credit and consumption together with an improvement in real incomes.

各位早安，感謝各位今天參加 BBVA 阿根廷 2026 年第二季業績電話會議。在 2026 年第二季，通膨持續下滑，進一步強化市場對此趨勢將持續鞏固的預期。此一環境應可支持信貸與消費復甦，並帶動實質所得改善。

Economic activity, while showing differences across sectors is displaying signs of overall growth. In addition, announcements and approvals of projects under the RIGI continued, totaling more than $15 billion during the quarter with the potential to increase capital inflows and strengthen the trade balance.

經濟活動雖然各產業表現不一，但整體呈現成長跡象。此外，RIGI 架構下的專案公告與核准持續推進，本季累計金額超過 150 億美元，具備增加資本流入並強化貿易收支的潛力。

The treasury also made progress in improving its debt maturity profile. It extended a significant portion of local currency maturities to 2028 and 2029 and in foreign currency, lengthened the maturities of repo agreements with banks and the swap agreement with China, while also securing financing backed by the IFI guarantees. These developments, together with reserve purchases of more than $13 billion are helping to reduce uncertainty and strengthen the macroeconomic outlook.

財政部也在改善債務到期結構方面取得進展。其將相當比例的本幣到期部位展延至 2028 與 2029 年；在外幣方面，則延長與銀行之附買回（repo）協議到期日及與中國的換匯協議期限，同時取得由國際金融機構（IFI）擔保支持的融資。上述發展，加上超過 130 億美元的外匯存底買入，正有助於降低不確定性並強化總體經濟展望。

The second quarter showed early signs of a recovery in lending activity, gradually reflecting the effects of the decline in interest rates and more favorable seasonality, although still affected by elevated delinquency levels.

第二季在放款活動方面出現初步復甦跡象，逐步反映利率下行與較有利的季節性因素影響，但仍受到逾期水準偏高的拖累。

Moving into our financial highlights for the quarter. BBVA Argentina posted an inflation-adjusted net income of ARS 131.6 billion for the second quarter of 2026. This represents a 44.6% increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by the operating income remaining relatively stable in a lower inflation environment.

接著進入本季財務重點。BBVA 阿根廷 2026 年第二季通膨調整後淨利為 1,316 億阿根廷披索（ARS）。在較低通膨環境下，營業收入維持相對穩定，帶動淨利較前一季成長 44.6%。

This bottom line expansion boosted our quarterly ROE to 12.2%. In spite of net interest income being affected by lower rates on the asset side, our reported NIM remained stable quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. NIM net of monetary position loss improved from 14% to 14.7%.

此一獲利擴張使我們的季度股東權益報酬率（ROE）提升至 12.2%。儘管資產端利率下行影響淨利息收入，我們揭露的淨利差（NIM）仍較前一季及去年同期維持穩定。扣除貨幣部位損失後的 NIM 由 14% 改善至 14.7%。

Regarding efficiency, our quarterly efficiency ratio stood at 45% with personnel benefits and administrative expenses reflected the ongoing management of our corporate structure and also some costs declining related to lagging activity.

在效率方面，我們的季度效率比率為 45%；人員福利與管理費用反映我們持續管理公司組織架構，同時也有部分成本因活動落後效應而下降。

Let's look at the dynamics of our balance sheet and credit portfolio. Total financing to the private sector closed the quarter at ARS 17.1 trillion. While local currency loans increased 2%, our foreign currency private loans grew by 2.5% sequentially, equivalent to a 2% increase in hard currency. Mortgage lending continues to gain momentum.

接下來看資產負債表與授信組合的動態。對民間部門的融資總額於季末為 17.1 兆阿根廷披索。本幣放款增加 2%；外幣民間放款則季增 2.5%，以硬通貨計相當於增加 2%。房貸業務持續加速成長。

Furthermore, we are successfully capturing business, mainly driven by the commercial segment and foreign currency loans. Our consolidated loan market share stood at 12%, signaling a total gain of 15 basis points over the last 12 months. On the funding side, total deposits reached ARS 19.2 trillion. Private deposit market share remained flat at 9.91%, but up 26 basis points year-over-year.

此外，我們成功取得更多業務，主要由商業金融與外幣放款帶動。我們合併放款市占率為 12%，顯示過去 12 個月合計提升 15 個基點。在資金端，存款總額達 19.2 兆阿根廷披索。民間存款市占率維持在 9.91% 不變，但較去年同期增加 26 個基點。

With regard to asset quality, although nonperforming loan levels remain elevated, we can identify signs of improvement in certain indicators such as early-stage delinquencies. BBVA's NPL ratio stood at 6.09%, up 49 basis points during the quarter. The financial system ratio was 7.22% by the end of June, increasing 54 basis points since March.

就資產品質而言，雖然不良放款水準仍偏高，但我們在部分指標上已看到改善跡象，例如早期逾期情況。BBVA 的不良放款比率（NPL ratio）為 6.09%，本季上升 49 個基點。截至 6 月底，金融體系整體比率為 7.22%，較 3 月增加 54 個基點。

BBVA's quarterly cost of risk reached 7.13%, broadly in line with the first quarter figure when adjusted for nonrecurring effects. Looking at solvency and liquidity, our liquidity ratio closed at a very comfortable 45.5%. More importantly, our capital position remains robust with a regulatory capital ratio of 18.8%, representing 128.7% excess over minimum regulatory requirements.

BBVA 的季度風險成本（cost of risk）達 7.13%，若調整一次性因素後，與第一季水準大致一致。在償付能力與流動性方面，我們的流動性比率期末為相當充裕的 45.5%。更重要的是，我們的資本部位仍然穩健，法定資本適足率為 18.8%，較最低監理要求高出 128.7%。

In conclusion, as we head into the second half of 2026, BBVA Argentina is well positioned, supported by robust capital levels, strong liquidity and healthy operating results. We remain fully equipped to lead the market and support credit supply as the financial system in Argentina continues to normalize. Thank you for your time and for your continued support. I would like now to turn the call over to Carmen Morillo, our CFO, for some closing remarks.

總結而言，展望 2026 年下半年，BBVA 阿根廷在充足資本、強勁流動性與健康的營運成果支持下，已具備良好定位。隨著阿根廷金融體系持續正常化，我們仍具備充分能力引領市場並支持信貸供給。感謝各位撥冗與持續支持。接下來我想把電話會議交給我們的財務長 Carmen Morillo，請她做一些結語。

Thank you, Belen. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we move to the Q&A, I would like to spend a few minutes sharing our view for the second half of the year, both for Argentina and for BBVA. Starting with the macro. Our view -- so in our view, it remains constructive.

謝謝你，Belen。謝謝，各位早安。在進入問答之前，我想花幾分鐘分享我們對下半年、就阿根廷以及 BBVA 的看法。先從總體面開始。我們的看法——也就是說，在我們看來，仍然偏向建設性。

The economy continues to normalize, fiscal discipline remains an important anchor, inflation is coming down, the external accounts are improving, and the financial system is gradually converging after many years of very low financial intermediation. This process will be not linear, and there are still important difference across sectors, but we believe the overall direction remains positive.

經濟持續正常化，財政紀律仍是重要錨定因素，通膨正在下降，對外帳改善，而金融體系在多年金融中介程度極低之後正逐步收斂。此一過程不會是線性的，各產業之間仍存在重要差異，但我們相信整體方向仍然正面。

We expect inflation to end 2026 at around 29% with monthly inflation moving toward 1.5% to 2% range. Beyond these numbers, we remain confident in Argentina medium- and long-term potential. Energy, mining and agriculture are already making a growing contribution to exports and investments.

我們預期通膨將在2026年底約為29%，月通膨將朝向1.5%至2%的區間移動。除了這些數字之外，我們仍對阿根廷中長期的潛力充滿信心。能源、礦業與農業已在出口與投資方面做出日益增加的貢獻。

The large projects under the RIGI framework should further increase Argentina's productive and export capacity and create opportunities across the value chains. Here, being part of a global bank is an important competitive advantage for us. We can combine our international capabilities with our strong local presence to support large investment projects and the companies around them.

RIGI架構下的大型專案應可進一步提升阿根廷的生產與出口能力，並在各價值鏈創造機會。在這方面，作為全球性銀行的一員對我們而言是一項重要的競爭優勢。我們可以結合國際能力與強大的在地布局，支持大型投資專案及其周邊企業。

Turning to banking activity. Argentina still has a very low credit penetration, as you all know. This gives the financial system significant room to grow as inflation and interest rates normalize and real income recover. After a relatively soft start of the year, lending activity showed some improvement in the second quarter, and we expect activity to continue improving gradually during the second half.

接著談銀行業務。如各位所知，阿根廷的信貸滲透率仍然非常低。隨著通膨與利率正常化、實質所得回升，這使金融體系擁有顯著的成長空間。在年初相對疲弱的開局之後，第二季放款活動有所改善，我們預期下半年活動將持續逐步改善。

For 2026, we expect our loan book to grow around 10% in real terms. We see opportunities across the businesses in retail, mainly in secured lending and customers where we have a strong visibility on income and in companies and SMEs, particularly in the more dynamic sectors of the economy.

展望2026年，我們預期放款組合以實質計算將成長約10%。我們在各業務線都看到機會：零售端主要在擔保放款，以及我們對客戶收入有高度可視性的客群；企業與中小企業端則特別是在經濟中較具動能的產業。

We will pursue this growth with discipline, maintaining our focus on credit quality and risk-adjusted returns. On funding, we are in a very comfortable position. We have a strong liquidity, and we do not see funding as a constraint to growth.

我們將以紀律推動此一成長，持續聚焦於授信品質與風險調整後報酬。在資金面，我們處於非常舒適的位置。我們擁有充裕的流動性，且不認為資金會成為成長的限制。

So rather than targeting a specific level for deposit growth, we will manage deposits according to our funding needs and the opportunities we see in the asset side. On margins, we expect some moderate pressure on our activity and NIM in pesos as interest rates decline.

因此，我們不會以存款成長的特定水準為目標，而是會依據資金需求以及我們在資產端看到的機會來管理存款。在利差方面，隨著利率下行，我們預期以披索計價的業務與淨利息收益率（NIM）將面臨一些溫和壓力。

However, at the P&L level, this should be partially offset by the positive impact of lower inflation. The currency mix will also matter, of course, if dollar-denominated business gains weight in our balance sheet, consolidated margins could be somewhat lower, although we don't expect this effect to be significant, at least in the short term.

然而，在損益表層面，較低通膨的正面影響應可部分抵銷上述壓力。當然，貨幣組合也會有影響；若以美元計價的業務在資產負債表中的比重提高，合併利差可能會略低，但我們預期此效應至少在短期內不會太顯著。

On fees, the underlying trend remains very positive. The quarter-over-quarter comparison is affected by some one-offs recorded in the first quarter. But excluding these effects, fee income continues to show a strong growth.

在手續費方面，基本趨勢仍非常正向。季對季比較受到第一季認列的一些一次性因素影響。但排除這些影響後，手續費收入仍持續呈現強勁成長。

Net fees are up around 35% year-over-year, reflecting the good progress we are making across our main fee-generating business. We expect fees to remain an important contributor to revenue growth going forward.

淨手續費年增約35%，反映我們在主要手續費創收業務上的良好進展。我們預期未來手續費仍將是營收成長的重要貢獻來源。

Moving to asset quality. The recent indicators are encouraging. Our NPL ratio ended June at around 6% and cost of risk was 7.1%. These figures still reflect the deterioration of previous quarters, while some of the more recent indicators are already moving in a better direction.

接著談資產品質。近期指標令人鼓舞。我們的不良放款（NPL）比率在6月底約為6%，風險成本為7.1%。這些數字仍反映前幾季的惡化情況，但一些較新的指標已開始朝更好的方向發展。

Earlier arrears are improving and recent vintages are performing better after the changes we made to underwriting and origination. Based on what we see today, we expect NPLs to stabilize and then gradually improve during the second half, ending the year at around 5.5%. For full year 2026, we expect cost of risk to be around 6.5%.

較早期的逾期情況正在改善，而在我們調整承作審核與放款起始流程後，近期批次（vintages）的表現也更好。根據我們目前所見，我們預期不良放款將先趨於穩定，並在下半年逐步改善，年底約為5.5%。就2026全年而言，我們預期風險成本約為6.5%。

Our coverage ratio ended the quarter at around 80%. When looking at this ratio, it is important to consider our historical recovery experience, which is around 25% of loans in arrears being recovered before write-offs. In this context, we consider the current level of coverage adequate.

我們的覆蓋率在本季末約為80%。在觀察此比率時，重要的是要考量我們歷史上的回收經驗：在核銷前，約有25%的逾期放款可被回收。在此背景下，我們認為目前的覆蓋水準是足夠的。

We expect 80% level to be the bottom for this ratio and from here to gradually rebuild coverage as asset quality improves. Overall, we remain prudent on the timing, but we are increasingly confident about the direction of the asset quality.

我們預期80%將是此比率的底部，並將自此隨著資產品質改善而逐步重建覆蓋。整體而言，我們在時點判斷上仍保持審慎，但對資產品質改善的方向愈來愈有信心。

On efficiency, the progress is already clear. Our quarterly efficiency ratio improved to 45% in the second quarter, and we remain very focused on cost discipline and operating leverage. And for the full year, we expect the efficiency ratio to end below 45%.

在效率方面，進展已相當明顯。第二季我們的季度效率比率改善至45%，我們仍高度聚焦於成本紀律與營運槓桿。而就全年而言，我們預期效率比率將低於45%作收。

We will continue to be ambitious quarter after quarter as volume recovers. Finally, let's talk about profitability. Our quarterly ROE improved to 12.2% in the second quarter from 8.3% in the first one. For the full year, we continue to expect a real ROE in the low teens level, consistent with the guidance we have been providing in previous quarters.

隨著業務量回升，我們將一季接一季持續保持企圖心。最後，談談獲利能力。我們的季度股東權益報酬率（ROE）在第二季由第一季的8.3%提升至12.2%。就全年而言，我們仍預期實質ROE落在十幾%的低段，與我們前幾季提供的指引一致。

Going forward, higher business volumes, positive contribution from fees, continued efficiency improvements and a gradual normalization of credit costs should support profitability. There may still be volatility between quarters, but we believe the underlying trend is very positive.

展望未來，更高的業務量、手續費的正向貢獻、效率持續改善，以及授信成本逐步正常化，應可支撐獲利能力。各季之間可能仍有波動，但我們認為基本趨勢非常正向。

So to summarize, we remain constructive on Argentina and on BBVA's outlook for the second half. We expect this real loan around 10% on funding our strong liquidity gives us flexibility to manage deposits according to the growth opportunities we see.

總結來說，我們對阿根廷以及BBVA下半年的展望仍持正面看法。我們預期實質放款約成長10%；在資金方面，我們充裕的流動性讓我們能依據所見的成長機會，彈性管理存款。

We expect moderate pressure on activity margins, partially compensated at the P&L level by lower inflation, while fees should continue to provide a positive contribution to revenues. Asset quality indicators are starting to move in the right direction. We expect to end the year with an efficiency ratio below 45%, and we continue to guide for the real ROE in low teens.

我們預期業務利差將面臨溫和壓力，但在損益表層面可由較低通膨部分補償；同時，手續費應可持續對營收帶來正向貢獻。資產品質指標正開始朝正確方向移動。我們預期年底效率比率將低於45%，並持續指引實質ROE落在十幾%的低段。

And we enter this phase with a strong position with a CET1 ratio of 18.8% and a strong liquidity, and we have the capability to capture growth opportunities while maintaining a prudent approach to risk. We believe BBVA is well positioned for the next phase of Argentina's economic cycle. And with that, we can move to your questions. Happy to hear.

我們以強勁的資本與流動性進入此一階段：普通股權益第一類資本（CET1）比率為18.8%，且流動性充裕；我們有能力在維持審慎風險取向的同時把握成長機會。我們相信BBVA已為阿根廷經濟循環的下一階段做好良好布局。接下來，我們可以進入提問。很高興聽取各位意見。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Brian Flores, Citi.

Brian Flores，花旗。

I have one on asset quality. Carmen, I know the bank is already focused in corporate loans. And I wanted to just get your thoughts on what do you think explains this deterioration? Do you think it's the uneven distribution of the recovery in the economy?

我有一個關於資產品質的問題。Carmen，我知道銀行已經把重心放在企業放款上。我想請教你，你認為這次惡化的原因是什麼？你覺得是否與經濟復甦分布不均有關？

Or what do you think explains this cost? Because on paper, the thing we can see is you have been already cautious in your allocation in the loan book. So I just wanted to check with you looking backwards, what do you think explains this deterioration in asset quality?

或者你認為是什麼原因解釋了這項成本？因為從紙面上看，我們能看到的是，你在貸款組合的配置上其實已經相當謹慎。所以我想回頭跟你確認一下，你認為是什麼原因導致資產品質出現這樣的惡化？

And then in my second question, just a follow-up. You mentioned for the end of the year, maybe cost of risk around 6.5%. Just wanted to check with you if directionally, the improvement should be sequential. That means lower from the 7.1% and then we go anywhere between that and 6.5%? Or do you think the third quarter still is pressured and then we drop more sharply in the fourth quarter?

然後我的第二個問題，算是一個追問。你提到年底的風險成本可能在 6.5% 左右。我想跟你確認一下，從方向性來看，改善是否會是逐季發生的。也就是說，會先從 7.1% 往下，然後落在 7.1% 與 6.5% 之間的某個水準？還是你認為第三季仍會承壓，然後第四季才會更明顯地下滑？

Thank you for your questions. So the first question, at the beginning, you mentioned the corporates. I don't really get why. So in the corporate segment, we see zero deterioration. So we are expecting to grow there as much as we can depending on the demand on credit.

謝謝你的提問。先回答第一個問題，一開始你提到企業端。我其實不太理解為什麼會這樣問。因為在企業金融這個分部，我們看到的是零惡化。所以我們預期會在那裡盡可能成長，取決於信貸需求。

So in that segment and also in companies, so small to medium companies, we are outperforming the market, and we are comfortable with that position. Going to the retail side, what we've been doing is, as you know, be more focused on recoveries on one side, on origination on the other side. And what we see, as I mentioned before, is that new vintages are performing better.

在那個分部以及公司端（也就是中小企業），我們的表現優於市場，而且我們對目前的定位感到安心。轉到零售端，我們一直在做的，如你所知，一方面更聚焦於回收，另一方面則聚焦於承作（放款發放）。而我們看到的、如我先前提到的，是新的批次（vintages）表現更好。

So we -- the quality of the assets is still not so good as we want to see in personal loans and credit cards. So these are the two portfolios where we are more cautious on growing, and we will wait a bit more to see the better performance on that. Of course, when you split between, for example, payrolls and clients, things are much better there than nonclients or non-payroll clients.

所以我們——在個人貸款與信用卡方面，資產品質仍未達到我們希望看到的水準。因此，這兩個投資組合是我們在成長上更為謹慎的部分，我們會再多等一段時間，觀察其表現進一步改善。當然，如果你把例如薪轉客群與一般客戶拆開來看，那裡的情況會比非客戶或非薪轉客群好很多。

So as I mentioned, we will be cautious on those segments. And then related to the trend for this year, what we see is that coming from actual levels for the third quarter, we see a slight better performance and then a better one in the fourth one. So we -- what we see is like the peak NPL and also cost of risk in the second quarter and then a better -- a slightly better performance in the third quarter and a better one in the last quarter to get this average cost of risk I was mentioning.

所以如我所說，我們會對那些分部保持謹慎。至於今年的趨勢，我們看到從第三季的實際水準開始，表現會略有改善，然後第四季會更好。所以我們——我們看到不良貸款（NPL）以及風險成本的高峰在第二季，第三季會有——小幅改善，而最後一季會更好，以達到我提到的平均風險成本。

No, super clear. And then if I may, just a quick follow-up. You mentioned the levels of coverage that will be recovered gradually. Obviously, in the last years, we have seen the decrease for, I would say, from very extraordinary high levels.

不，非常清楚。如果可以的話，我再快速追問一下。你提到覆蓋率的水準會逐步回升。顯然，在過去幾年，我們看到覆蓋率下降，我會說是從非常、非常異常偏高的水準往下。

But I just wanted to check with you, I don't know, if you have a target in mind or any level that you would feel more comfortable with maybe by the end of '27? Is it, I don't know, above 100%, 100% or something? Or do you think it's more of a stable around the 100% level? Any, I think, idea here would be very helpful.

但我想跟你確認一下，我不知道——你是否心中有一個目標，或是到 2027 年底你會覺得更舒服的某個水準？例如，我不知道，是高於 100%、等於 100% 之類？或者你認為大概會穩定在 100% 左右？我想任何想法都會非常有幫助。

Okay. So as I mentioned, we expect this 80% level to be the bottom of the ratio and from here on to gradually rebuild the coverage ratio as asset quality improves. I don't know if 100% is the level for next quarter, but we should see better levels in the following quarters.

好的。如我所提到的，我們預期 80% 這個水準會是該比率的底部，從這裡開始，隨著資產品質改善，我們會逐步重建覆蓋率。我不確定 100% 是否會是下一季的水準，但接下來幾季我們應該會看到更好的水準。

Juliana Ohara, Goldman Sachs.

Juliana Ohara，高盛。

I have a quick follow-up on asset quality. I was wondering if you could somehow share the magnitude of the improvement in the early vintages that you're seeing? And also, I don't know if I'm getting ahead, but if you could -- if you already have some views for 2027 on loan growth and maybe an early ROE expectation would also be great.

我有一個關於資產品質的快速追問。我想知道你是否可以分享一下，你所看到的早期批次（vintages）改善幅度大概有多大？另外，我不知道是不是問得太早，但如果你能——如果你已經對 2027 年的放款成長以及可能的初步 ROE 預期有一些看法，也會很棒。

Of recovery in the early.

關於早期的回收。

Sorry, Juliana. Thank you for your question. So the first one was -- so it's related to the vintages. So the.

抱歉，Juliana。謝謝你的問題。所以第一個是——是跟批次（vintages）有關。所以。

Yes. It was elated to -- if you could share the magnitude of the improvements in the asset quality that you mentioned in the early -- the new vintages.

是的。是關於——你是否可以分享你提到的早期——新批次資產品質改善的幅度。

So as I was mentioning, so you have to split payroll, non-payroll and different products. We are -- so the signals we are having are maybe too early to get to a conclusion. But what we see is that from -- I don't know, from levels in credit cards of around 6% a year ago, we are near 2% to 2.2% this year. So it's difficult to give an exact figure there.

如我所提到的，你必須把薪轉、非薪轉以及不同產品拆開來看。我們——目前得到的訊號可能還太早，還無法下結論。但我們看到的是，例如信用卡從一年前大約 6% 的水準，今年已接近 2% 到 2.2%。所以很難在這裡給出一個精確數字。

But what I can say is that we see a constant better figure on a monthly base in these two portfolios. And maybe it's useful to know that in personal loans and also in credit cards, we are already in the payroll portfolio in levels similar to December 2024.

但我可以說的是，在這兩個投資組合上，我們按月看到持續改善的數字。另外也許有用的是，在個人貸款以及信用卡方面，我們在薪轉組合上的水準已經回到與 2024 年 12 月相近。

So there, we are already comfortable with what we see. So these signals are the ones we were waiting for to start growing, as I mentioned, in clients that we know their income -- and moreover, that we have this payroll is also really important for us.

所以在那裡，我們對目前看到的情況已經感到安心。所以這些訊號正是我們一直在等待的，讓我們可以開始成長——如我所說——在我們了解其收入的客戶上；此外，能掌握薪轉對我們也非常重要。

And do you already have any expectations for 2027?

那你們對 2027 年已經有任何預期了嗎？

So maybe it's a little bit soon to answer that question, but what we expect for the system is a real growth around 10% to 15%, and we will be above that. We want to outperform the market. But yes, something above this level for sure. So maybe next quarter, we can have some more color on this.

所以也許現在回答這個問題還有點早，但我們對整個系統的預期是真實成長約 10% 到 15%，而我們會高於這個水準。我們希望跑贏市場。但對，肯定會高於這個水準。所以也許下個季度，我們可以提供更多細節。

Eduardo Resende, UBS.

Eduardo Resende，瑞銀。

I have two on my side as well. So the first one, I would like to ask a color on the portfolio mix that you expect for the coming quarters. I mean mortgage loans was -- were a positive highlight in the second quarter. And more recently, the government announced a new funding program backed by FGS Resource. So I would like to know the appetite to grow in retail mortgage and how relevant this new program from the government could be to BBVA.

我這邊也有兩個問題。第一個，我想請你分享一下你對未來幾季投資組合結構（portfolio mix）的預期。我的意思是，房貸在第二季是——是一個正面的亮點。而最近政府宣布了一個由 FGS 資源支持的新資金計畫。所以我想了解你們在零售房貸成長上的意願，以及這個政府新計畫對 BBVA 可能有多重要。

So this is the first question. And the second one is regarding the NIMs. You mentioned that some pressure is expected as rates and inflation continues to decline. But could you provide some color on what levels could we see for the coming quarters and for 2026? That's all from my side.

所以這是第一個問題。第二個問題是關於淨利差（NIM）。你提到隨著利率與通膨持續下滑，預期會有一些壓力。但你能否提供一些說明，未來幾季以及 2026 年可能會看到什麼水準？我這邊就這些。

Eduardo, this is Diego. On your first question regarding the mix of portfolio, we've been growing in the last quarters more on commercials that represents approximately 57% of our portfolio. But that growth has somewhat stabilized as these kind of loans have already stalled and are not growing so much. For the coming quarters, we are seeing that the retail portfolio has touched some floor on growth.

Eduardo，我是 Diego。針對你第一個關於投資組合結構的問題，我們在最近幾季商業放款成長較多，目前約占我們投資組合的 57%。但這樣的成長已經有些趨於穩定，因為這類貸款已經停滯，成長不多。展望未來幾季，我們看到零售投資組合的成長已觸底。

So we are seeing some recovery, especially, as you mentioned, in mortgages, probably also on car loans. But gradually also consumer and credit cards, as Carmen said, well, we are seeing some signs of improvement on credit quality.

因此我們看到一些復甦，特別是如你所提到的房貸，可能也包括車貸。但也會逐步擴及消費貸與信用卡；正如 Carmen 所說，我們確實看到信用品質改善的一些跡象。

So it could be possible to start growing a little in the coming quarters. But anyway, mortgages and pledges will gain traction with more speed and will represent a bigger share of that retail portfolio. Nowadays, both of them, if you take mortgages and car loans, they represent around 27% of that retail portfolio. Probably that percentage should grow in the coming quarters.

所以未來幾季有可能開始小幅成長。不過，房貸與質押貸款（pledges）會更快取得動能，並在零售投資組合中占比更高。目前若把房貸與車貸合計，它們約占零售投資組合的 27%。這個比例在未來幾季可能會上升。

But we will also make efforts to grow in commercial. As Carmen said, we are seeing that credit quality on those segments is good. Of course, we have not seen too much demand on the first part of the year, but we think that seasonally, that first part of the year is the worst. Rates have fallen a lot during these past months. So we should expect some pickup in activity there, too. And we are focused -- we have been telling the market that we are focused on companies, on midsized companies, especially. So we will be there.

但我們也會努力推動商業放款成長。如 Carmen 所說，我們看到這些區隔的信用品質良好。當然，今年上半年我們沒有看到太多需求，但我們認為從季節性來看，上半年通常是最差的。過去幾個月利率已大幅下滑。因此我們也應該會看到那邊的活動回升。而我們的重點——我們一直對市場說——是聚焦在企業，特別是中型企業。所以我們會在那裡布局。

Regarding currencies, we have been growing in the past a little more in the dollar activity. Probably that could be the trend in the future, but at a very slower pace. We are not seeing that, that mix of dollar-peso will change dramatically in the coming quarters. And regarding these mortgages, the bank has been active in the past quarters. We have been growing.

關於幣別方面，我們過去在美元業務上的成長稍微多一些。未來可能仍會是趨勢，但速度會慢很多。我們不認為未來幾季美元/披索的組合會出現劇烈變化。至於房貸，銀行在過去幾季一直很積極。我們一直在成長。

We have been selling approximately 20% of the new origination in the past four, five months. We intend to keep that track for the coming months. We see with good eyes this new program that the government has implemented because, of course, in Argentina, there are no institutional investors and having the -- doing that job, I think it's good for the market. So we will participate in the program.

在過去四、五個月，我們大約出售了新承作放款的 20%。我們打算在接下來幾個月維持這個做法。我們對政府推出的新計畫持正面看法，因為當然在阿根廷缺乏機構投資人，而由其來——做這件事——我認為對市場是好的。所以我們會參與該計畫。

And so on your second question regarding NIMs. Well, NIMs have been performing well in the past quarters, especially the measure that we like to present that is the NIM in real terms, we take the cost of inflation from the interest margin. And that measure has gone up 70 basis points in the last quarter. Probably this is the higher point of the year.

接著回答你第二個關於淨利差（NIM） 的問題。嗯，過去幾季 NIM 表現良好，特別是我們喜歡呈現的那個指標——以實質計算的 NIM，我們會從利息利潤中扣除通膨成本。而這個指標在上一季上升了 70 個基點。這可能是今年的高點。

Probably net interest income should stabilize in the coming quarters. And as loan portfolio starts growing, we should see NIMs deteriorating a little. Historical NIMs should fall around, we think, 200 basis points by year-end, but that will be partially offset by the fall in inflation. So the real NIM should fall around 100 or 125 basis points. This is not a huge problem for us. Of course, this is the trend that everyone is expecting in Argentina, if things keep normalizing and inflation keeps going down along with rates.

未來幾季淨利息收入可能會趨於穩定。而隨著放款投資組合開始成長，我們應該會看到 NIM 略為惡化。我們認為名目（歷史）NIM 到年底可能會下滑約 200 個基點，但通膨下滑會部分抵銷。因此實質 NIM 可能會下滑約 100 到 125 個基點。這對我們來說不是很大的問題。當然，如果情況持續正常化，且通膨與利率一起下行，這就是阿根廷所有人都預期的趨勢。

Our next question comes from [Sergio Nanut del Amico with Particular].Sergio, your microphone is open. You can open your microphone, Sergio. Well, I think that is going to be some problem technical issues.

我們的下一個問題來自[Sergio Nanut del Amico with Particular]。Sergio，你的麥克風已開啟。你可以開麥克風了，Sergio。嗯，我想可能有一些技術問題。

Mario Estrella, Itau.

Mario Estrella，Itau。

Just two questions. The first, I think, is already sort of been answered. So regarding the early signs that you've seen -- the signs you've seen in early NPLs, I know that you're saying that the new vintages are behaving well. But I don't know if we -- as investors, can we track Stage 2 or Stage 1 loans in order to also kind of be on tracking or measuring well that behavior.

兩個問題。第一個我想某種程度上已經被回答了。所以關於你們看到的早期不良貸款（NPL）跡象——我知道你們說新批次（vintages）的表現良好。但我不確定我們——作為投資人——是否能追蹤第 2 階段或第 1 階段貸款，以便也能追蹤或衡量這種表現。

I don't know if that is accurate to be following since early -- I mean, the vintages is not something that we can see. And also because we know that in Argentina, the loan book is very short. short duration as of now, right?

我不確定這樣追蹤是否準確，因為早期——我是說，批次（vintages）不是我們看得到的東西。而且我們也知道在阿根廷，放款帳簿目前期限很短、存續期間很短，對吧？

So you correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't know if Stage 2 can be also like a good measure that we can follow in order to try to anticipate to an improvement in asset quality. And the other question was -- yes, it was about regulation.

所以如果我說錯請糾正我，但我不確定第 2 階段是否也能作為一個我們可以追蹤的良好衡量指標，用來嘗試提前預判資產品質的改善。另外一個問題是——對，是關於監管。

We also saw that the government announced that it's going to let banks to loan USD -- to grant USD loans up to 15% of deposits regardless of the client being a USD generator or not, right? So I wanted to check on you guys, your views on that policy, if it's going to have an impact or not? I mean that would be great to have your color on that as well.

我們也看到政府宣布將允許銀行以美元放款——也就是不論客戶是否為美元收入/美元產生者，都可以在存款的 15% 上限內核發美元貸款，對吧？所以我想請教你們對這項政策的看法，它是否會產生影響？我的意思是，也希望你們能就此提供一些說明。

Okay. Thank you. Yes, so you're right. So if we follow stages, of course, they will give us also some color on the better performance of the portfolio, and it is that way. So when we take a look to individuals, so to retail, we see this better performance along the months this year, and we hope to see it by the end of the year at a better pace. So yes, the answer is yes. I know you don't have enough information to see vintages, and it could be a good indicator for you. So I agree. Related to dollar. So Diego, do you want to take that one?

好的。謝謝。是的，你說得對。如果我們追蹤各階段，當然也能讓我們更了解投資組合表現改善的情況，確實如此。因此當我們看個人客戶、也就是零售端時，我們看到今年以來這幾個月表現更好，我們也希望到年底能以更快的速度看到改善。所以是的，答案是肯定的。我知道你沒有足夠資訊去看批次（vintages），而這可能會是你的一個良好指標。所以我同意。至於美元相關的問題。Diego，你要回答這題嗎？

Yes. Well, regarding your other question, well, we welcome that measure by the government. But in fact, we already had the capacity to lend to companies that do not originate dollars because we have some bond issues in the market. So we had that capability. Even if we do not use it broadly, we look case by case. There are a few companies that we have already lent, but we do not think that we will make this massive.

是的。嗯，關於你另一個問題，我們歡迎政府的那項措施。但事實上，我們本來就有能力向不產生美元收入的公司放款，因為我們在市場上有一些債券發行。所以我們具備那樣的能力。即使我們不會廣泛使用，我們也會逐案評估。已經有少數公司我們提供了貸款，但我們不認為會大規模推動。

We are aware of the risks. And on the other side, we have a very good demand of exporters or of projects. So our liquidity ratio in foreign currency is where we want it to be. Of course, if deposits and funding in general terms keeps going up, we will keep lending. But it's like we didn't need this measure too much in order to keep growing our portfolio. But of course, it is welcome because it allows us more flexibility if we need it.

我們了解其中的風險。另一方面，出口商或專案的需求非常好。因此，我們的外幣流動性比率維持在我們希望的水準。當然，如果存款與整體資金來源持續增加，我們也會持續放款。但就像是，我們其實不太需要這項措施也能持續擴大我們的資產組合。不過當然，這項措施是受歡迎的，因為在需要時能讓我們更有彈性。

Perfect. Perfect. Just to check on what you mentioned about guidance, it was loan growth close to 10% and cost of risk of 6.5% and ROE, I think I didn't catch that, if there was a correction on that.

很好。很好。我想確認一下你提到的指引：貸款成長接近10%，風險成本6.5%，以及ROE——我想我沒聽清楚那一段，是否有修正？

Low teens.

十幾%的低段。

Low teens on ROE.

ROE在十幾%的低段。

Yes. And then loans around 10%. Yes, that's right. And the other one, I didn't get it.

是的。然後貸款大約10%。是的，沒錯。另外那個，我沒聽到。

Cost of risk of 6.5%.

風險成本6.5%。

Yes, that's right.

是的，沒錯。

6.5% for the full year.

全年6.5%。

Lisandro Lloveras, One618.

Lisandro Lloveras，One618。

Congratulations on the results. I have two questions here. The first one is you can provide a deposit guidance growth for the full year 2026. And the second one is that we saw the bond portfolio and the public exposure -- the public sector exposure growing this quarter. And I was wondering if you think it can continue growing in the following quarters.

恭喜你們的業績。我這裡有兩個問題。第一個是，你們能否提供2026全年存款成長的指引？第二個是，我們看到本季債券投資組合以及對公部門的曝險——公部門曝險有所增加。我想請問你們是否認為接下來幾季還會持續成長。

So the first one, if I didn't get it wrong, it's related to guidance deposit growth. As I said before, so we -- okay. So on funding, we are very comfortable with our position, and we think it -- so we have enough liquidity to keep growing, and it will depend -- the opportunities we see on the asset side. And according to that, we will be growing in deposits.

第一個，如果我沒聽錯，是關於存款成長指引。如我先前所說，所以我們——好的。在資金來源方面，我們對目前的部位非常放心，我們認為——我們有足夠的流動性可以持續成長，而這將取決於——我們在資產端看到的機會。依此，我們會推動存款成長。

So we don't see any restraint there. So to give you a figure, maybe it will depend on the system, but we could be around 5% to 10%, something similar to that. But as I mentioned, if we need more liquidity because the activity grows faster, then we won't have any problem there. So...

所以我們不認為那裡會有任何限制。若要給你一個數字，可能取決於整體系統，但我們可能在5%到10%左右，類似這樣。但如我提到的，如果因為活動成長更快而需要更多流動性，我們也不會有任何問題。所以……

Yes, Lisandro, as you know, we have been growing in market share in deposits. We have grown around 300 basis points through the last two or three years. But then we stopped because, of course, credits are not growing that fast by the moment. So when we need to resume that growth, we will. And regarding your second question, it's true that public sector portfolio has grown in the second quarter after having decreased in the previous two years.

是的，Lisandro，如你所知，我們一直在提高存款市占率。過去兩到三年我們大約提升了300個基點。但之後我們停下來了，因為當然，目前信貸成長沒有那麼快。所以當我們需要恢復那樣的成長時，我們會的。至於你的第二個問題，確實，公部門投資組合在第二季成長了，此前兩年是下降的。

I think it's temporary. The explanation is just that loans didn't traction during this first part of the year. And besides, we saw some good opportunities in building a value bond portfolio. We prefer floating rate adjustment. So we started with Tamar bonds. And then, of course, we switched to these dual bonds that pay the most between inflation and Tamar rates.

我認為這是暫時性的。原因只是今年前半段貸款沒有起色。此外，我們也看到一些建立具價值的債券投資組合的好機會。我們偏好浮動利率調整。所以我們先從Tamar債券開始。然後，當然，我們轉向這些雙重（dual）債券，其支付以通膨與Tamar利率兩者中較高者為準。

So at least two-thirds of our portfolio consists of that kind of bonds, which we -- as I said before, we think that provides value for our NII in the coming one, two and up to three years. So we are comfortable with that position. And of course, we keep some part of the portfolio short term to attend liquidity situations. That's a prudency measure.

因此，我們的投資組合至少有三分之二由這類債券構成；如我先前所說，我們認為這將在未來一到兩年、甚至到三年，為我們的淨利息收入（NII）帶來價值。所以我們對這個部位感到放心。當然，我們也保留一部分投資組合為短期，以因應流動性狀況。這是一項審慎措施。

The next question comes from [Stefan] as a private investor. Stefan, you can open your microphone. Can you hear it, Stefan? (Operator Instructions) Okay. This concludes the Q&A section and today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a nice day.

下一個問題來自私人投資人[Stefan]。Stefan，你可以打開麥克風。你聽得到嗎，Stefan？(接線員指示) 好的。問答環節與今天的簡報到此結束。你現在可以斷線，祝你有美好的一天。