Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Axalta Coating Systems third-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們先生們,謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加艾仕得塗料系統 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員說明)

  • Today's call is being recorded and the replay will be available through November 6. Those listening after today's call should please note that the information provided in the recording will not be updated and therefore may no longer be current.

    今天的通話正在錄音中,重播將持續到 11 月 6 日。今天電話會議後的聽眾請注意,錄音中提供的資訊將不會更新,因此可能不再是最新的。

  • I will now turn the call over to Colleen Lubic, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁科琳·盧比克 (Colleen Lubic)。請繼續。

  • Colleen Lubic - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Colleen Lubic - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thank you and good morning. This is Colleen Lubic, Vice President of Investor Relations. We appreciate your continued interest in the Axalta story and welcome you to our Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference call. Today, our Chief Executive Officer Chris Villavarayan and our Chief Financial Officer Carl Anderson will provide a financial review of the third quarter and an update to our 2024 outlook.

    謝謝你,早安。我是科琳‧盧比克 (Colleen Lubic),投資者關係副總裁。我們感謝您對艾仕得故事的持續關注,並歡迎您參加我們的 2024 年第三季財務業績電話會議。今天,我們的執行長 Chris Villavarayan 和財務長 Carl Anderson 將提供第三季的財務回顧以及 2024 年展望的更新。

  • We released our quarterly financial results this morning and posted a slide presentation to the Investor Relations section of our website at axalta.com, which we will be referencing during this call. Our prepared remarks, the slide presentation, and our discussion today may contain forward-looking statements reflecting the company's current view of future events and their potential effect on Axalta's operating and financial performance.

    今天早上,我們發布了季度財務業績,並在 axalta.com 網站的投資者關係部分發布了幻燈片演示,我們將在本次電話會議中參考該幻燈片。我們準備好的演講、幻燈片演示以及我們今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述,反映了公司當前對未來事件及其對艾仕得營運和財務業績的潛在影響的看法。

  • These statements involve uncertainties and risks, and actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements. Please note that the company is not obligated to update these forward-looking statements. During the discussion, references may be made to non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the tables and related footnotes in the earnings release for a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and applicable reconciliations. For additional information regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures, please refer to our filings with the SEC.

    這些陳述涉及不確定性和風險,實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異。請注意,該公司沒有義務更新這些前瞻性陳述。在討論過程中,可能會提及非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱收益報告中的表格和相關腳註,以了解最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準和適用的調整表。有關前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務指標的更多信息,請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件。

  • I will now turn the call over to Chris.

    我現在將把電話轉給克里斯。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Colleen, and good morning, everyone. Let's move to Slide three. This was an exceptional quarter for Axalta, demonstrating our ability to execute our priorities and control the controllable.

    謝謝科琳,大家早安。讓我們轉到幻燈片三。對於艾仕得來說,這是一個非凡的季度,展示了我們執行優先事項和控制可控事項的能力。

  • I would like to thank our employees who helped drive a company record for third-quarter net sales and adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA margins also expanded each quarter this year. In the quarter, net sales increased to $1.32 billion. This represents the 15th consecutive quarter of net sales growth year-over-year.

    我要感謝我們的員工,他們幫助推動了公司第三季淨銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 的記錄。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率今年每季也有所擴大。本季淨銷售額增至 13.2 億美元。這代表淨銷售額連續第 15 季年增率。

  • Share gains, mixed management, and contributions from recent acquisitions more than offset a softer macroeconomic environment. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $30 million year-over-year to a third-quarter company record of $291 million. This outstanding result represents the ninth consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA growth year-over-year.

    股票收益、混合管理以及近期收購的貢獻足以抵消宏觀經濟環境疲軟的影響。調整後 EBITDA 年增 3,000 萬美元,達到該公司第三季最高紀錄 2.91 億美元。這一出色的業績代表調整後 ​​EBITDA 連續第九個季度同比增長。

  • Adjusted EBITDA margin was 22%, an improvement of 220 basis points from the same period last year. Margin expansion was a result of lower variable costs, contributions from acquisitions, and a reduction in operating expenses due to our transformation actions introduced earlier this year.

    調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 22%,較去年同期提高 220 個基點。利潤率的成長是可變成本降低、收購貢獻以及我們今年稍早推出的轉型行動導致營運費用減少的結果。

  • Growth is a primary objective for the 2026 A Plan. This quarter, we had several achievements that should contribute to achieving our growth target. First, we were excited to begin converting a top-five refinish MSO in North America. This new award was driven by the outstanding technology and efficiency of our product portfolio.

    成長是 2026 年 A 計畫的首要目標。本季度,我們取得了幾項成就,這些成就應該有助於實現我們的成長目標。首先,我們很高興開始改造北美排名前五名的修補漆 MSO。這個新獎項是由我們產品組合的卓越技術和效率所推動的。

  • In building products, we continue to be awarded business with strategic customers, reinforcing our position as a leader in this space. Finally, we're growing volumes in light vehicle with new wins that are margin-accretive.

    在建立產品方面,我們繼續獲得策略客戶的業務,鞏固了我們作為該領域領導者的地位。最後,我們正在增加輕型車的銷量,並取得了利潤成長的新勝利。

  • This growth should be a nice tailwind in the second half of 2025 to help offset expected softening in the industry. We were awarded this new business due to our color technology and our ability to expand capacity to meet our customers' expectations.

    這種成長應該會成為 2025 年下半年的良好推動力,有助於抵消產業預期的疲軟。由於我們的色彩技術和擴大產能以滿足客戶期望的能力,我們獲得了這項新業務。

  • In terms of innovations that we expect will expand our business, we recently launched Axalta Nimbus and Axalta IRUS Scan. These are great examples of us bringing new and innovative tools to the market. IRUS Scan is an advanced handheld tool that scientifically measures vehicle color for accurate readings. Upon retrieving data from IRUS Scan, Nimbus digitally compares and delivers a highly accurate color formula that ensures a perfect match each and every time.

    在我們期望擴大業務的創新方面,我們最近推出了艾仕得 Nimbus 和艾仕得 IRUS Scan。這些都是我們向市場推出新的創新工具的絕佳例子。IRUS Scan 是一款先進的手持式工具,可科學地測量車輛顏色以實現準確的讀數。從 IRUS 掃描檢索資料後,Nimbus 進行數位比較並提供高度準確的顏色公式,確保每次都能完美匹配。

  • These tools are leading technologies that enable body shops to improve efficiency, enhance productivity, and deliver consistent quality, leading to higher profitability. In building products, we launched Cerulean, an extension of our water-based platform for interior finishes, including cabinets. Water-based coatings for wood substrates have historically had issues with the weight coatings set on the surface.

    這些工具是領先的技術,使車身修理廠能夠提高效率、提高生產力並提供一致的質量,從而提高獲利能力。在建築產品方面,我們推出了 Cerulean,這是我們用於室內裝飾(包括櫥櫃)的水基平台的延伸。用於木質基材的水性塗料歷來都存在表面塗層重量的問題。

  • Our technology offers a smoother coatings from a visual and touch perspective. We developed this new product line using our expertise in performance coatings and are pleased that it extends our commitment to developing sustainable solutions.

    我們的技術從視覺和觸覺角度提供了更光滑的塗層。我們利用我們在高性能塗料方面的專業知識開發了這條新產品線,並很高興它擴展了我們對開發永續解決方案的承諾。

  • Within mobility, our customer collaboration extends from the early stages of product development to working alongside OEM in their paint shops. We're incredibly excited that great customers like BYD, Daimler, Ford, and General Motors have recognized our efforts and awarded us multiple honors. This speaks to the excellence of our product, quality, service, and customer relationships.

    在行動領域,我們的客戶合作從產品開發的早期階段延伸到在塗裝車間與 OEM 合作。我們非常高興比亞迪、戴姆勒、福特和通用汽車等偉大客戶認可了我們的努力並授予我們多項榮譽。這證明了我們產品、品質、服務和客戶關係的卓越性。

  • This quarter's results demonstrate our resolve to deliver on our commitments and expand profitability with a clear focus on priorities and alignment across the company. Given our better than expected third quarter results, we're confident that our full-year 2024 adjusted EBITDA will exceed $1.1 billion. As such, we're pleased to increase the 2024 full-year outlook for adjusted EBITDA as well as for adjusted diluted EPS and free cash flow, reflecting the underlying strength of the business.

    本季的業績顯示我們決心履行承諾並擴大獲利能力,並明確關注整個公司的優先事項和協調一致。鑑於第三季業績優於預期,我們有信心 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 將超過 11 億美元。因此,我們很高興上調 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 以及調整後稀釋每股盈餘和自由現金流的全年預期,反映了該業務的潛在實力。

  • Let's move to slide four. The refinish business posted another strong quarter with net sales growing 5% year-over-year. We have achieved 15 quarters of net sales growth year-over-year with a soft macro environment. Year-to-date, we have outperformed the industry by mid-single digits driven by net new body shop wins, M&A, and pricing.

    讓我們轉到第四張投影片。修補漆業務季度表現再次強勁,淨銷售額年增 5%。在宏觀環境疲軟的情況下,我們實現了 15 個季度的淨銷售額年增。今年迄今為止,在新車身修理廠淨勝利、併購和定價的推動下,我們的表現優於業界中個位數。

  • As we have shared, we're focused on expanding our position in the premium segment, driving growth in the economy segment, and delivering innovative and efficiency-enhancing solutions to our customers. This year, we have won over 2,100 net new body shops.

    正如我們所分享的,我們致力於擴大我們在高端市場的地位,推動經濟領域的成長,並為我們的客戶提供創新和提高效率的解決方案。今年,我們贏得了超過 2,100 家淨新車身修理廠。

  • And with the recent CoverFlexx acquisition, we expanded our position in North America's economy segment. While it is still early in the integration, CoverFlexx results exceeded our expectations in the quarter. We also had another excellent quarter in light vehicle, outpacing bill rates in all four regions.

    透過最近收購 CoverFlexx,我們擴大了在北美經濟領域的地位。雖然整合仍處於早期階段,但 CoverFlexx 本季的業績超出了我們的預期。我們在輕型汽車領域也經歷了另一個出色的季度,所有四個地區的帳單率都超過了帳單率。

  • Year-to-date, we have delivered 5% volume growth year-over-year against production rates that declined 2% in the same period. This type of outperformance is not new to Axalta, as our volume growth has outpaced light vehicle bills in nine of the last ten quarters.

    今年迄今為止,我們的銷量年增了 5%,而同期生產力下降了 2%。這種優異的表現對艾仕得來說並不新鮮,因為我們的銷售成長在過去十個季度中有九個季度超過了輕型汽車的銷售成長。

  • Our China and LATAM strategy have diversified our customer base and brought accretive business into the portfolio. I'm very proud of the results we have seen in revenue growth and margin expansion.

    我們的中國和拉丁美洲策略使我們的客戶群多元化,並為我們的投資組合帶來了增值業務。我對我們在收入成長和利潤擴張方面看到的成果感到非常自豪。

  • I'm also pleased with the focus we have maintained on a healthy balance between price and cost. By reducing some of the volatility caused by the commodity cycle through raw material indexing, the team has been able to dedicate their time in delivering exceptional products and service.

    我也很高興我們專注於價格和成本之間的健康平衡。透過原物料索引減少商品週期造成的波動,團隊能夠將時間投入提供卓越的產品和服務。

  • This has enabled us to build and expand excellent customer relationships. Despite the volatility we expect in the auto industry over the next few quarters, our diversified customer base and significant new business wins should help us weather these headwinds.

    這使我們能夠建立和擴大良好的客戶關係。儘管我們預計未來幾季汽車產業將出現波動,但我們多元化的客戶群和重大的新業務勝利應該有助於我們應對這些不利因素。

  • Let's move to slide five. The A plan is the absolute focus. We believe our strategy is achievable as shown so far this year with our financial results. We're well on our way to delivering the plan earlier than anticipated. This is the consistent performance we're aiming to deliver going forward.

    讓我們轉到第五張投影片。A計劃是絕對的焦點。我們相信我們的策略是可以實現的,正如今年迄今為止的財務表現所顯示的那樣。我們正在比預期更早地交付計劃。這是我們未來想要實現的一致表現。

  • As we approach the end of the calendar year, I want to thank Axalta's global employees for coalescing around the A Plan and executing flawlessly thus far in 2024. I could not be prouder of this great team, and I look forward to closing out the year strong and preparing for 2025. With that, I'll turn the call over to Carl.

    隨著年底的臨近,我要感謝艾仕得的全球員工圍繞 A 計劃進行整合,並在 2024 年迄今為止完美執行。我為這支偉大的團隊感到無比自豪,我期待著以強勁的勢頭結束這一年,並為 2025 年做好準備。這樣,我就把電話轉給卡爾。

  • Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to slide six. Third quarter net sales increased by approximately 1% year-over-year to $1.32 billion, primarily driven by contributions from our recent acquisitions, which outweighed the macro headwinds in the quarter. Price mix declined 1% in the quarter as positive price actions were offset by anticipated contractual raw material pass-through impacts and an unfavorable mix within refinish.

    謝謝你,克里斯,大家早安。讓我們轉到第六張投影片。第三季淨銷售額年增約 1%,達到 13.2 億美元,主要得益於我們最近收購的貢獻,抵銷了本季的宏觀不利因素。本季度價格組合下降了 1%,因為積極的價格走勢被預期的合約原材料傳遞影響和修補漆中的不利組合所抵消。

  • Gross margins were 35% in the quarter, an increase of 270 basis points from prior year. Improvement was supported by 6% lower variable costs and strong cost management. Our procurement team delivered another great quarter with raw materials, energy costs, and freight expenses all lower versus the prior year period. We are benefiting from our continued focus on productivity programs, which are generating excellent returns.

    本季毛利率為 35%,較去年同期成長 270 個基點。變動成本降低 6% 和強有力的成本管理為改進提供了支持。我們的採購團隊再次實現了出色的季度業績,原材料、能源成本和運費都低於去年同期。我們受益於我們對生產力計劃的持續關注,這些計劃正在產生豐厚的回報。

  • Regarding ROCE, we remain well supplied across the commodity base. We view most markets as balanced at this time, with pockets of inflation remaining, but slightly better than expected on softer overall market demand.

    就 ROCE 而言,我們整個商品基地的供應仍然充足。我們認為目前大多數市場處於平衡狀態,部分通膨依然存在,但由於整體市場需求疲軟,略好於預期。

  • In the fourth quarter, we are expecting raw material costs to be similar to fourth quarter of 2023 as we begin to lack the deflationary impacts that started late last year. Income from operations increased $30 million in the third quarter compared to the prior year. This improvement was supported by a mid-single digit decline in variable cost unit rates, productivity improvements, and approximately $15 million of consulting and ERP costs that did not repeat from the third quarter of last year.

    由於去年年底開始的通貨緊縮影響開始消失,我們預計第四季的原物料成本將與 2023 年第四季相似。與去年同期相比,第三季營運收入增加了 3,000 萬美元。這項改善得益於變動成本單位費率中個位數的下降、生產力的提高以及約 1500 萬美元的諮詢和 ERP 成本(與去年第三季相比沒有重複)。

  • SG&A was roughly flat compared to last year as we continue to actively manage our cost structure. Additionally, the financial impact from the transformation initiative is coming in ahead of plan this year, and we expect to be well on our way to achieve an annualized savings of $75 million in 2026.

    由於我們持續積極管理成本結構,SG&A 與去年相比大致相當。此外,今年轉型計畫帶來的財務影響將提前顯現,我們預計將在 2026 年實現年化 7,500 萬美元的節省。

  • Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $291 million, 12% above last year, marking another record quarter for EBITDA performance. And adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 31% to $0.59, driven by higher overall earnings and lower shares outstanding.

    本季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.91 億美元,比去年同期成長 12%,標誌著 EBITDA 業績再創新高。受整體收益增加和流通股減少的推動,調整後稀釋每股收益成長 31%,達到 0.59 美元。

  • Let's move to slide seven. Net sales for performance coatings increased 2% year-over-year to $877 million, largely due to the impact from the recent acquisition. Refinish net sales grew 5% to $554 million, driven by incremental contributions from CoverFlexx and net new body shop wins, offset partially by unfavorable macro trends and mixed headwinds.

    讓我們轉到第七張投影片。高性能塗料的淨銷售額年增 2%,達到 8.77 億美元,這主要是由於最近收購的影響。修補漆淨銷售額成長 5%,達到 5.54 億美元,這得益於 CoverFlexx 的增量貢獻和新車身修理廠的淨銷售額,但部分被不利的宏觀趨勢和複雜的不利因素所抵消。

  • Industrial net sales declined 1% year-over-year to $323 million, in line with industry trends. While we expect the industry conditions to remain muted through the remainder of this year, we continue to be on track to deliver 300 basis points of margin improvement in 2024, consistent with our prior guide.

    工業淨銷售額年減 1%,至 3.23 億美元,與產業趨勢一致。雖然我們預計今年剩餘時間產業狀況將保持低迷,但我們仍有望在 2024 年實現利潤率提高 300 個基點,這與我們先前的指導一致。

  • Performance coatings adjusted EBITDA increased $21 million or 11% year-over-year to $221 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 200 basis points, primarily driven by lower variable costs, conversion on incremental revenue, and lower operating expenses.

    高性能塗料調整後 EBITDA 年成長 2,100 萬美元,成長 11%,達到 2.21 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率成長了 200 個基點,主要是由於變動成本降低、增量收入轉換以及營運費用降低。

  • Let's move to mobility coatings results on slide eight. Mobility coatings net sales decreased 2% year-over-year to $443 million. Light vehicle net sales were flat in the third quarter versus the third quarter of 2023, despite a 5% decline in build rates.

    讓我們轉向第八張幻燈片上的流動塗層結果。交通塗料淨銷售額年減 2%,至 4.43 億美元。儘管建造率下降了 5%,但第三季輕型車淨銷量與 2023 年第三季持平。

  • Volumes grew 5%, outpacing auto production growth rates in all regions. As expected, price mix was a low single-digit headwind in the quarter, primarily driven by raw material pass-through impacts and timing of pricing actions when compared to last year.

    銷量成長 5%,超過所有地區的汽車產量成長率。正如預期的那樣,與去年相比,本季價格組合出現了個位數的低阻力,這主要是受到原物料傳導影響和定價行動時機的推動。

  • We are encouraged by the volume growth and believe that the team can continue to drive sustained relative outperformance at these levels. In the fourth quarter, we expect favorable price mix results as favorable mix is expected to more than offset headwinds from raw material passthroughs.

    我們對銷售成長感到鼓舞,並相信團隊可以繼續在這些層面上推動持續的相對優異表現。我們預計第四季度將出現有利的價格組合結果,因為有利的價格組合預計將足以抵消原材料傳遞帶來的不利影響。

  • Commercial vehicle net sales declined 8%, primarily driven by a drop in Class 8 production in North America and Latin America. This was consistent with industry forecasts and our expectations.

    商用車淨銷量下降 8%,主要是因為北美和拉丁美洲 8 級車產量下降。這與產業預測和我們的預期一致。

  • Mobility coatings adjusted EBITDA increased by 14% year-over-year to $70 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 230 basis points year-over-year to 15.7%, with another quarter of margin expansion in both businesses, primarily driven by lower variable costs and a reduction in operating expenses.

    流動性塗料調整後 EBITDA 年增 14%,達到 7,000 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率同比增長 230 個基點,達到 15.7%,這兩個業務的利潤率又增長了一個季度,這主要是由於可變成本下降和運營費用減少。

  • Turning to slide nine. We ended the third quarter with over $1.2 billion in total liquidity, inclusive of $567 million in cash on hand. Total net leverage at quarter end was 2.7 times, and we are on track to be at 2.5 times by the end of the year.

    翻到第九張投影片。截至第三季末,我們的流動資金總額超過 12 億美元,其中手頭現金為 5.67 億美元。季末總淨槓桿率為 2.7 倍,預計到年底將達到 2.5 倍。

  • Total gross leverage at quarter end was 3.2 times, a 0.2 times improvement sequentially, and a 0.7 times lower than the third quarter of 2023, consistent with our strategy to drive our gross debt leverage to a range of 2.5 times to 3 times.

    季末總槓桿率為 3.2 倍,較上一季提高 0.2 倍,較 2023 年第三季下降 0.7 倍,這與我們將總債務槓桿率提升至 2.5 倍至 3 倍的策略一致。

  • In the quarter, we repaid $80 million of the $185 million draw on a revolving credit facility used to finance the purchase of CoverFlexx that was completed in the third quarter. Additionally, we repurchased $50 million of Axalta shares this quarter. Since announcing the $700 million share repurchase program earlier this year, we have repurchased $100 million of shares to-date.

    本季度,我們償還了用於為收購 CoverFlexx 提供資金的 1.85 億美元循環信貸額度中的 8,000 萬美元,該額度於第三季完成。此外,我們本季回購了價值 5,000 萬美元的艾仕得股票。自今年稍早宣布 7 億美元的股票回購計畫以來,我們迄今已回購了 1 億美元的股票。

  • Capital expenditures in the third quarter were $33 million, bringing year-to-date CapEx to $78 million. We see many opportunities to deploy capital in our manufacturing facilities to drive productivity and improve efficiencies. We remain committed to spending on high-return projects and investing in the business.

    第三季的資本支出為 3,300 萬美元,使年初至今的資本支出達到 7,800 萬美元。我們看到了許多在製造設施中部署資本以提高生產力和效率的機會。我們仍然致力於高回報項目的支出和業務投資。

  • Our year-to-date operating cash flow is $342 million, and we have deployed approximately $560 million this year, inclusive of the CoverFlexx acquisition. Our balanced approach to capital allocation and the speed at which we have executed against our priorities is critical to achieve the A Plan target of 15% return on invested capital in 2026. As of this quarter, return on invested capital exceeded 13% on a trailing 12-month basis, which is an increase of 180 basis points compared to full year 2023.

    我們今年迄今的營運現金流為 3.42 億美元,今年我們已部署了約 5.6 億美元,其中包括對 CoverFlexx 的收購。我們平衡的資本配置方法以及我們執行優先事項的速度對於實現 A 計劃 2026 年 15% 投資資本回報率的目標至關重要。截至本季度,過去 12 個月的投資資本回報率超過 13%,較 2023 年全年增長 180 個基點。

  • Let's turn to slide 12. With another strong quarter completed, we are pleased to increase our fiscal 2024 earnings outlook. Full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA is projected to be approximately $1 billion, $115 million, an increase of $20 million versus the midpoint of our prior guidance, and a 17% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year. Additionally, adjusted diluted earnings per share is now forecasted to be at approximately $2.15, representing a 37% increase compared to last year.

    讓我們翻到投影片 12。隨著另一個強勁季度的結束,我們很高興上調 2024 財年的獲利預期。2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 預計約為 10 億美元,即 1.15 億美元,比我們先前指引的中位數增加 2,000 萬美元,調整後 EBITDA 較去年同期成長 17%。此外,調整後的稀釋每股收益目前預計約為 2.15 美元,比去年增長 37%。

  • Our full year net sales guidance remains unchanged, and we expect net sales to be up approximately $100 million when compared to 2023. As we start to prepare for 2025, we are excited with the progress we have made against the A Plan initiatives.

    我們的全年淨銷售額指引保持不變,我們預計淨銷售額將比 2023 年增加約 1 億美元。當我們開始為 2025 年做準備時,我們對 A 計劃舉措所取得的進展感到興奮。

  • Despite most economic indicators suggesting that the macroeconomic trends will remain soft in the first half of next year, we believe our relative outperformance in refinish and light vehicle will continue, and we expect to remain opportunistic with M&A.

    儘管大多數經濟指標表明明年上半年宏觀經濟趨勢將保持疲軟,但我們相信我們在修補漆和輕型車領域的相對優異表現將繼續下去,並且我們預計將在併購方面保持機會主義。

  • Our transformation initiative is off to a great start, and we expect a $30 to $40 million incremental benefit next year. And lastly, any further interest rate reductions will help lower our interest expense next year as nearly 50% of our debt is floating rate.

    我們的轉型計劃已經有了一個良好的開端,我們預計明年將帶來 3000 至 4000 萬美元的增量收益。最後,任何進一步的降息都將有助於降低我們明年的利息支出,因為我們近 50% 的債務是浮動利率的。

  • The balance sheet is in great shape, the organization has remained focused, and we believe we have the financial flexibility to deliver value for our shareholders. Fiscal year 2024 is shaping up to be a record year, and we expect to deliver another record year in 2025.

    資產負債表狀況良好,組織始終保持專注,我們相信我們擁有財務靈活性,可以為股東創造價值。2024 財年將成為創紀錄的一年,我們預計 2025 年將再創紀錄的一年。

  • Thank you for joining us today. This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the lines for Q&A.

    感謝您今天加入我們。我們準備好的演講到此結束。接線員,請開通問答線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • John McNulty, BMO Capital Markets.

    約翰·麥克納爾蒂 (John McNulty),BMO 資本市場部。

  • John McNulty - Analyst

    John McNulty - Analyst

  • Yeah. Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. So maybe I can start out on the margin side. So for 2024, you're pretty much already at your long-term 2026 A Plan. And it sounds like you've got some incremental, at least one incremental good guy coming in 2025 around the transformation initiative. So can you speak to some of the other good guys and bad guys as you're looking out to 2025, because it does seem like you're already way ahead of kind of the pace that you were expecting for your longer-term plans?

    是的。早安,感謝您提出我的問題。所以也許我可以從邊緣開始。因此,對於 2024 年,您幾乎已經實現了 2026 年長期 A 計劃。聽起來你會在 2025 年圍繞轉型計劃出現一些漸進的、至少一個漸進的好人。那麼,在展望 2025 年時,您能否與其他一些好人和壞人談談,因為看起來您確實已經遠遠超出了您對長期計劃的預期步伐?

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, good morning, John. I didn't realize your name got replaced. I hope you're having a good week here. I'll start, and then I'll hand it over to Carl. Yes, I mean, it's great to see that we have come along here and hit our plan for 2026 from a margin perspective at 21% as we look at the full year. Again, as we think about the transformation initiative and where we can go with that, there's also supply chain initiatives that we're driving and operational productivity that we see that can add to that margin. And if you remember when we rolled out the A Plan, we actually had 21% plus as a sign there. So it was to essentially drive the point that we can actually do better than that.

    嘿,早上好,約翰。我沒想到你的名字被替換了。我希望你在這裡度過愉快的一周。我先開始,然後交給卡爾。是的,我的意思是,很高興看到我們能夠走到這裡,從全年利潤率的角度來看,我們實現了 2026 年的計劃,即 21%。再次,當我們考慮轉型計劃以及我們可以採取哪些行動時,我們正在推動的供應鏈計劃和我們認為可以增加利潤的營運生產力。如果你還記得當我們推出 A 計劃時,我們實際上有 21% 以上作為標誌。所以它本質上是為了推動我們實際上可以做得更好。

  • But that said, we are quite comfortable with where the margins are as we look at pivoting towards growth. I think, when I came in, one of the things that I talked about was getting back to historical margins, and we certainly are back. And what I would like to make sure that we do is pivot some of that strength that we have in the margin and focus towards the growth going forward. We have about $400 million of growth ahead of us as I think about the A Plan. And the great story there is over the last two years we were able to get $400 million if you look at '23 and '24. So '25, '26, we have the same target I believe we can get there. And we certainly have the foundation to be able to do it with. So that's our focus is, stabilize the margin and then build from there. And I'll turn it over to Carl.

    但話雖如此,當我們著眼於成長時,我們對利潤率感到非常滿意。我想,當我進來時,我談到的一件事就是回到歷史邊緣,我們當然回來了。我想確保我們所做的是將我們在利潤方面擁有的一些優勢轉向未來的成長。當我考慮 A 計劃時,我們面臨著約 4 億美元的成長。值得一提的是,如果你看看 23 年和 24 年,過去兩年我們就獲得了 4 億美元的收入。因此,'25、'26,我們有相同的目標,我相信我們可以實現這一目標。我們當然擁有能夠做到這一點的基礎。所以我們的重點是,穩定利潤,然後從那裡開始發展。我會把它交給卡爾。

  • Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, John, the only thing else I would add is I think we believe we're just in the early innings of what we can do from a productivity perspective. So over the next several years, if I look about the amount of CapEx we expect to invest in the business, a big part of that will be really focused on productivity initiatives. So I think while we have some early momentum, it's still early and there's a lot more in front of us over the next several years.

    是的,約翰,我唯一要補充的是,我認為我們相信從生產力的角度來看,我們正處於我們可以做的事情的早期階段。因此,在接下來的幾年裡,如果我看看我們預計投資於該業務的資本支出金額,其中很大一部分將真正集中在生產力計劃上。因此,我認為雖然我們有一些早期的動力,但現在還為時過早,未來幾年我們還有很多事情要做。

  • John McNulty - Analyst

    John McNulty - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. No, thanks. That's helpful color. And then I guess just as a second question, you spoke to some new wins in the auto OEM arena. I know auto is kind of a question mark as we look to next year. If we had a flat auto environment based on the wins that you have, how should we be thinking about what your growth is or what the new wins contribute to the top line for you?

    知道了。好的。不,謝謝。這是有用的顏色。然後我想,作為第二個問題,您談到了汽車 OEM 領域的一些新勝利。我知道,當我們展望明年時,汽車產業還是一個問號。如果我們有一個基於您所取得的勝利的平坦汽車環境,那麼我們應該如何考慮您的成長是什麼或新的勝利對您的收入有何貢獻?

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's a great question. I think, let me define that growth primarily in two regions. One is China and the other one is LATAM. In China, if you look at the last full year, we've been performing about 20% above market as I look at the full year. And as I project that forward, especially with the stimulus, we certainly have upside. But it's primarily the fact that we have launched a lot of these new products, and we put a new plant in place.

    這是一個很好的問題。我想,讓我主要定義兩個地區的成長。一個是中國,一個是拉美。在中國,如果你看看去年全年,我們的表現比我全年的市場表現高出約 20%。當我預測這一點時,尤其是在刺激措施的推動下,我們當然有上行空間。但這主要是因為我們推出了許多新產品,並且建立了新工廠。

  • In terms of defining that number, we're not at this point. Another area that we have growth is certainly LATAM with the change of the competitive dynamic there. What's helped us is we've had the opportunity to grow both in light vehicle and commercial vehicle and that's certainly providing a tailwind. There I could probably provide a number that's, let's call it, it's north of 50 million as we think about next year. It'll start ramping up through next year and we'll certainly see most of that in '26.

    就定義這個數字而言,我們現在還沒有到這個階段。我們成長的另一個領域當然是拉丁美洲,因為那裡的競爭動態已經改變了。對我們有幫助的是,我們有機會在輕型汽車和商用車領域實現成長,這無疑提供了推動力。我或許可以提供一個數字,我們認為明年這個數字將超過 5,000 萬。它會在明年開始增加,我們肯定會在 26 年看到其中的大部分。

  • John McNulty - Analyst

    John McNulty - Analyst

  • Got it. Great. Thanks very much for the color

    知道了。偉大的。非常感謝你的顏色

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

    大衛‧貝格萊特,德意志銀行。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. Chris, I'm going to finish. What were volumes down in the quarter and why were they down in the quarter?

    謝謝。早安.克里斯,我要講完了。本季銷量下降了多少?

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, primarily a couple of things. I think, as you've seen from most of the folks that have reported so far, it's about two or three things. First, if I think about it, there was some consolidation with some distributors that created, let's call it, some destocking in the marketplace as well as I think, if I looked at the last two, three quarters with where the insurance rates are driving, I believe the market essentially impacted us a bit. But all that said, as you know, it feels like it's a one quarter, two quarter issue. And the reason I point that out to that is if you look at our growth and specific to the quarter, CoverFlexx came in and that came in, let's call it, for about 4% or 5%. So that essentially took a lot of the softness that we saw.

    嗯,主要有幾件事。我認為,正如您從迄今為止報告的大多數人所看到的那樣,這與兩三件事有關。首先,如果我考慮一下,一些分銷商進行了一些整合,這導致了市場上的一些庫存減少,我認為,如果我看看過去兩個、三個季度保險費率的推動情況,我相信市場本質上對我們產生了一些影響。但正如你所知,儘管如此,感覺這只是一個季度、兩個季度的問題。我指出這一點的原因是,如果你看看我們的成長,具體到本季度,CoverFlexx 進來了,我們稱之為,大約 4% 或 5%。因此,這基本上消除了我們所看到的許多柔軟性。

  • But if you look at Q1 and Q2, we were actually up 5%, against a similar marketplace where, let's call it, we were down 2% to 3%. So I feel our growth will drive a lot of the dynamics even if you play forward what we're positioning for Q4, we believe the outgrowth will drive, let's call it, that offset of that 2% to 3% softness that we're seeing.

    但如果你看看第一季和第二季度,我們實際上上漲了 5%,而在類似的市場上,我們則下跌了 2% 到 3%。因此,我覺得我們的成長將推動很大的動力,即使你向前推進我們對第四季度的定位,我們相信,成長將推動我們稱之為 2% 至 3% 的疲軟的抵消。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • And on that point, Chris, you mentioned on slide four, body shop wins to be down 2% to 3%. What changes that going forward in '25 or even longer?

    關於這一點,克里斯,您在第四張幻燈片中提到,車身修理廠的勝利將下降 2% 到 3%。25 年甚至更長時間內會發生什麼變化?

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I believe it's a pretty secular market and if you look at the fact that, I would not look at this as a quarter-over-quarter basis. I think you need to look at it as a full-year basis. And you know, I believe with interest rates being as high as they are, folks are essentially holding back on doing repairs. And as well, if I think forward into next year, there's also a feeling of the uncertainty in the marketplace with the consumer. But that will shift if I think more as a full-year basis, number one.

    嗯,我相信這是一個相當長期的市場,如果你看看這一事實,我不會將其視為季度環比的基礎。我認為你需要以全年為基礎來看待它。你知道,我相信,由於利率如此之高,人們基本上不願意進行維修。同樣,如果我展望明年,消費者也會感受到市場的不確定性。但如果我更多地以全年為基礎進行思考,那麼這種情況將會發生變化,第一。

  • Number two, if you knew that this over time was something that we needed to focus on and the CoverFlexx acquisition really enables us to get closer to those folks that are aiming to save some money here and look at repairs in a different perspective outside the insurance framework, let's call it. So I believe the real growth is being driven by our strategy on how we grow.

    第二,如果您知道隨著時間的推移,這是我們需要關注的事情,而收購 CoverFlexx 確實使我們能夠更接近那些旨在在這裡省錢並以保險之外的不同角度看待維修的人框架,我們稱之為框架。因此,我相信真正的成長是由我們的成長策略所推動的。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

    克里斯帕金森,沃爾夫研究中心。

  • Chris Parkinson - Analyst

    Chris Parkinson - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. So can we talk a little bit more about the IRUS rollout? I know it's kind of very preliminary, especially in Europe, but if we could just hit on that and how that's funneling through into this kind of continuous wind cycle on the refinish side, anything there would be very helpful? Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。那我們可以多談談 IRUS 的推出嗎?我知道這是非常初步的,特別是在歐洲,但如果我們能夠抓住這一點,以及如何將其融入到修補漆方面的這種連續風循環中,那麼會有什麼非常有幫助的嗎?謝謝。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Awesome, Chris. Good morning and thanks for the question. It's been going great. We've launched about 300. Most of them have been in Europe. Our objective is to multiply that by three as we think about next year and get to look to get about 900 out. Let's call it limiting our ability is really our capacity to build the machines and get them out and get the service teams as well as the bottling capacity to be able to support the growth as we see in that. It's actually that piece of equipment that was one of the -- what really helped us win so in this space. It's with the customers that we've launched in Europe, I've had the opportunity to speak to a few of them last quarter and they just absolutely love them. So, I see that as a great, great opportunity to help us with growth in our premium space as well as hold on to the great set of customers we have.

    太棒了,克里斯。早安,謝謝你的提問。一切進展順利。我們已經推出了大約 300 個。他們中的大多數人都在歐洲。我們的目標是在明年考慮時將其乘以三,並爭取約 900 名員工。我們稱之為限制我們的能力,實際上是我們建造機器、取出它們、建立服務團隊以及裝瓶能力的能力,以支持我們所看到的成長。實際上,正是這台設備真正幫助我們在這個領域取得了勝利。這是我們在歐洲推出的客戶,上個季度我有機會與他們中的一些人交談,他們非常喜歡他們。因此,我認為這是一個非常非常好的機會,可以幫助我們實現高端領域的成長,並留住我們擁有的大量客戶。

  • Chris Parkinson - Analyst

    Chris Parkinson - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. And the other question I had is there have been across your various end markets, I'd say, fairly dramatic actions on behalf of some asset closures, asset optimization, distribution rationalizations. In terms of your own thought process about servicing your customers, do you feel that you're optimally positioned given the, let's say, the growth outlook for the foreseeable future and defined as still multiple years? Or do you think, there are other actions that management will need to take in the foreseeable future? Thank you.

    這非常有幫助。我的另一個問題是,我想說,你們的各個終端市場在一些資產關閉、資產優化、分配合理化方面採取了相當戲劇性的行動。就您自己為客戶提供服務的思考過程而言,您是否認為考慮到可預見的未來的成長前景並定義為仍需多年的成長前景,您是否處於最佳位置?或者您認為,管理階層在可預見的將來還需要採取其他行動?謝謝。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's a pretty good question, Chris. And I think, the one thing that we did, let's call it, with our transformation initiative is we started early, if I think about going through it in 2023. And as I look forward, I believe the best part of our margin story is we've built the foundation to now then pivot towards really supporting the growth and supporting the infrastructure for growth going forward. And what it helps us do with our transformation initiative really then is pivot towards putting more service folks on the ground, pivot towards putting more folks to approach customers, to grow the business, as well as investment in technology, as well as how, to your question, Chris, about how are we going to get the iris mix out there?

    這是一個很好的問題,克里斯。我認為,我們在轉型計劃中所做的一件事就是,如果我考慮在 2023 年進行的話,我們很早就開始了。展望未來,我相信我們的利潤故事中最好的部分是我們已經奠定了基礎,然後轉向真正支持成長並支持未來成長的基礎設施。它真正幫助我們實施轉型計劃的是讓更多的服務人員到現場,讓更多的人員接觸客戶,發展業務,以及對技術的投資,以及如何克里斯,你的問題是我們如何將虹膜混合出來?

  • We can now drive investments towards really driving the service teams to get it out there. And that is one business. That is just the look on just the refinish business. The cool part about this is if I looked at the industrial business, the industrial margins have grown 300 basis points. And our A Plan target was 400 basis points. We just have 100 basis points with two years to go. And the industrial business has certainly earned the right to grow and we can certainly pivot towards that. So I believe that if you think through that process, whether it's putting capacity in place, whether it's launching new products as we talked about with Cerulean.

    我們現在可以推動投資,真正推動服務團隊將其實現。這是一回事。這只是修補漆業務的外觀。最酷的部分是,如果我看看工業業務,工業利潤率成長了 300 個基點。我們的 A 計劃目標是 400 個基點。距離剩下兩年的時間,我們只剩下 100 個基點了。工業企業無疑已經贏得了成長的權利,我們當然可以朝著這個方向發展。所以我相信,如果你仔細考慮這個過程,無論是投入產能,還是像我們與 Cerulean 討論的那樣推出新產品。

  • And if you think about interest rates dropping here or the fact that China is also doing stuff to stabilize the residential market and start picking up there, I think over the back half of next year, we really have an opportunity on the industrial business growth because of volumes that we're really not planning for at this point. But there is an opportunity there as well. But certainly we can start investing towards that at this point.

    如果你考慮到這裡的利率下降,或者中國也在採取措施穩定住宅市場並開始回升,我認為在明年下半年,我們確實有工業業務增長的機會,因為我們目前還沒有計劃的數量。但那裡也有一個機會。但我們現在當然可以開始為此進行投資。

  • Chris Parkinson - Analyst

    Chris Parkinson - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. Thank you so much.

    這非常有幫助。太感謝了。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

    文森安德魯斯,摩根士丹利。

  • Vincent Andrews - Analyst

    Vincent Andrews - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just a couple of questions on price. Could you give us a little bit more color on performance coatings? What looks like price mix was flat? Just sort of what was the interplay there between what you got in refinish versus maybe what happened in industrial? And then secondly, it sounds like you're expecting sort of raw materials to flatten out in 4Q and I guess into 2025. So could you just update us on where you are in terms of those pricing contracts you have that are indexed to ROCE? Is there another quarter or so of catch up where we're going to see negative price on those indexes or are you close to that flattening out as well?

    謝謝。大家早安。只是關於價格的幾個問題。您能為我們提供更多有關高性能塗料的資訊嗎?價格組合看起來持平嗎?您在修補漆中得到的結果與工業中發生的情況之間有什麼相互作用?其次,聽起來你預期原料會在第四季趨於平穩,我猜要到 2025 年。那麼,您能否向我們介紹一下您在與 ROCE 掛鉤的定價合約方面的最新情況?是否還有一個季度左右的時間,我們會看到這些指數出現負價格,或者您是否也接近趨於平緩?

  • Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. Good morning, Vincent. As we look at price mix and refinish, I would say pricing continues to hold up very well for us. I think what you're seeing mostly in the quarter is just some change in mix. Don't forget a year ago we did have the ERP implementation that we were still kind of working through, which had some movements as far as mix when you compare on a year-overyear basis. So I would say refinish pricing is kind of coming in right where we thought. And I would say on price mix for industrial actually was up a little bit as well. So I think there we feel very good with just how we're able to execute in a pretty benign, flattish type of market in industrial. So I think all of that is holding up fairly well.

    是的。早上好,文森。當我們考慮價格組合和整修時,我想說定價對我們來說仍然非常有利。我認為您在本季度看到的主要只是組合方面的一些變化。不要忘記,一年前我們確實實施了 ERP,目前仍在進行中,當您與去年同期進行比較時,它在混合方面發生了一些變化。所以我想說,修補漆的定價有點符合我們的想法。我想說的是,工業品的價格組合其實也有所上漲。因此,我認為我們對如何在一個相當良性、平坦的工業市場中執行任務感到非常滿意。所以我認為所有這些都保持得相當好。

  • And if I think about the raw material kind of question, as you said, one, we were very, very pleased with the results in the third quarter, seeing our variable cost down 6% year-on-year. If I look at kind of the commodity basket, we continue to see some favorability in isocyanates and monomers, which are kind of some of the drivers of that. We do believe year-on-year is going to flatten out in the fourth quarter. And as we shift into 2025, we're currently planning to see just kind of normal inflation maybe in that 2%, maybe 3% year-on-year. But as Chris said, we do have some continued productivity initiatives that we would expect hopefully to offset some or all of that in 2025.

    如果我考慮原材料類型的問題,正如您所說,第一,我們對第三季度的業績非常非常滿意,看到我們的可變成本同比下降了 6%。如果我看看商品籃子的種類,我們繼續看到異氰酸酯和單體受到一些青睞,這是其中的一些驅動因素。我們確實相信第四季同比將趨於平穩。當我們進入 2025 年時,我們目前計劃看到正常的通貨膨脹率可能是 2%,也許是 3%。但正如克里斯所說,我們確實有一些持續的生產力舉措,我們希望這些舉措能夠在 2025 年抵銷部分或全部影響。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Just the last thing to add to that, Vincent, is across all four end markets, we had positive pricing. And I'll turn it back to you on indexing.

    文森特,最後要補充的是,在所有四個終端市場上,我們都有積極的定價。我會在索引時將其傳回給您。

  • Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. The indexing, as you said, you saw in this particular quarter specifically in light vehicle, we were planning for some of that index to kind of come through as we kind of pass that through. I think as we kind of get into next year, we'll provide a little bit more color on that. But I do think what we're really focused on, and you can see it in the overall performance when we're showing mobility margins at 15.7% in the quarter, I think there's a lot of other initiatives that we're driving as well. But overall we're not seeing that to be that significant of a headwind for us next year.

    是的。正如您所說,您在這個特定季度特別是輕型車輛中看到了索引,我們計劃在我們通過該索引時實現其中一些索引。我認為,隨著明年的到來,我們將在這方面提供更多的色彩。但我確實認為我們真正關注的是什麼,當我們在本季度展示 15.7% 的行動利潤率時,您可以從整體表現中看到這一點,我認為我們還在推動許多其他舉措。但總體而言,我們認為這不會對我們明年構成那麼大的阻力。

  • Vincent Andrews - Analyst

    Vincent Andrews - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you very much

    好的。非常感謝

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you. Welcome.

    謝謝。歡迎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

    甘沙姆‧潘嘉比 (Ghansham Panjabi),貝爾德 (Baird)。

  • Matt Krieger - Analyst

    Matt Krieger - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. This is Matt Krieger sitting in for Ghansham. So for my first question, we talked a little bit about the share gains in mobility already, but I was hoping that we could get some more detail on what exactly is driving the share wins and better than market growth in both refinish and any added detail on mobility is great. Are these ongoing wins or should we think about lapping these gains into 2025 at any point? And then how have peers been reacting from a competitive standpoint to Axalta taking share in the market?

    嘿,大家早安。我是馬特·克里格 (Matt Krieger) 代替甘沙姆 (Ghansham)。因此,對於我的第一個問題,我們已經討論了一些關於移動性份額增長的問題,但我希望我們能夠獲得更多詳細信息,了解到底是什麼推動了份額的增長,並且在修補漆和任何附加細節方面都優於市場成長。這些勝利是持續的勝利還是我們應該考慮將這些成果應用到 2025 年?那麼,從競爭的角度來看,同業對艾仕得搶佔市佔率有何反應?

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So good morning, Matt, and I'll cover this. So I think when I look at the wins, we had a specific, let's call it, opportunity in LATAM with one of the competitors leaving the space. And it created an opportunity for us to come in and serve and add volumes for existing customers, as well as it gave us an opportunity to win new customers in the space, which was exceptional. And if I look at that between commercial vehicle and light vehicle, we've been able to win what I believe by next year, as I said earlier, will be about $50 million to $60 million plus that we see in that business coming in.

    早安,馬特,我來介紹一下。所以我認為,當我看到勝利時,我們在拉丁美洲有一個特定的機會,我們可以稱之為,其中一位競爭對手離開了這個空間。它為我們提供了進入該領域並為現有客戶提供服務和增加銷售的機會,也為我們提供了在該領域贏得新客戶的機會,這是非常出色的。如果我看看商用車和輕型車之間的情況,我相信到明年,我們已經能夠贏得大約5000 萬至6000 萬美元的收入,正如我之前所說,加上我們在該業務中看到的收入。

  • When I moved to China, in China, as we've said for the last two quarters, the teams have just done an exceptional job being absolutely focused. And it isn't something that this team started, let's call it, this year, they've been doing it for what feels like it is nine quarters in a row. And if I look at it, it's really started with understanding the customers and being very, very focused. And it's really four elements that they have driven. One is the exceptional team.

    當我搬到中國時,在中國,正如我們在過去兩個季度所說的那樣,團隊剛剛完成了一項出色的工作,絕對專注。這不是這支球隊今年開始的事情,我們可以這樣稱呼它,他們已經連續九個季度這樣做了。如果我看一下,它實際上是從了解客戶並非常非常專注開始的。他們確實推動了四個要素。一是優秀的團隊。

  • The second one is the service by implementing our capabilities and our teams within our customers' facilities. The third one is delivering quality and making sure that we do everything to allow our OEMs to focus on what they do best, which is build cars. And the fourth element of that is create the barriers of color that is needed in China for that marketplace.

    第二個是透過在客戶的設施中發揮我們的能力和團隊來提供服務。第三個是提供品質並確保我們盡一切努力讓我們的原始設備製造商專注於他們最擅長的事情,即製造汽車。第四個要素是創造中國市場所需的色彩障礙。

  • And so across those four elements, they've just done an exceptional job executing over there. We also implemented additional capacity between two plants and that's been winning. I don't see that lapping next year. I believe that team is going to continue to win and win and win, because if you look at just the volume from this year, we've been able to grow by 20%. We haven't specified any customers, but as you can see we've made it very clear that on the EV side we're on the top two customers that play in this space. So it's just been great and we continue to win with local OEMs as I think about our growth story for the next year and it's been exceptional. The stimulus is also helping us and my thoughts are it will go through the Chinese New Year. And I don't know what will happen beyond that, but that's also been a tailwind if I think about the start of '25.

    因此,在這四個要素中,他們在執行上做得非常出色。我們還在兩個工廠之間實施了額外的產能,這已經成功了。我不認為明年會有這樣的情況。我相信球隊將繼續獲勝、獲勝、獲勝,因為如果你只看今年的銷量,我們已經能夠成長 20%。我們沒有指定任何客戶,但正如您所看到的,我們已經非常明確地表明,在電動車方面,我們是該領域的前兩名客戶。所以這真是太棒了,當我想到我們明年的成長故事時,我們將繼續贏得當地原始設備製造商的青睞,這是非常出色的。刺激措施也對我們有幫助,我的想法是它會持續到農曆新年。我不知道接下來會發生什麼,但如果我考慮 25 年初的話,這也是一個順風車。

  • Matt Krieger - Analyst

    Matt Krieger - Analyst

  • Got it. That's very helpful. And then just switching over to the margin side of things, can you talk about some of the contributors to margin expansion during the record third quarter versus your original forecast? Was the primary driver incrementally positive price-cost contributions or is this essentially all self-improvement from the businesses?

    知道了。這非常有幫助。然後轉向利潤方面,您能談談創紀錄的第三季利潤擴張與您最初預測相比的一些貢獻因素嗎?主要驅動因素是價格成本貢獻逐漸增加,還是本質上都是企業的自我改進?

  • Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes Matt. It's a combination. Obviously the variable cost performance that the purchasing team drove was definitely one of the large drivers of the year-on-year improvement you saw in margins. We also benefit from some of the transformation initiatives. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are coming in a little bit better than we originally anticipated on that line item as well. So I think between the two of those, those are kind of the big drivers for us, which I think was extremely helpful, especially in this type of macro environment.

    是的,馬特。這是一個組合。顯然,採購團隊推動的變動成本績效絕對是利潤率年比改善的主要動力之一。我們也受益於一些轉型措施。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的,我們在該項目上的表現也比我們最初預期的要好一些。所以我認為在這兩者之間,這些對我們來說是很大的驅動力,我認為這非常有幫助,特別是在這種宏觀環境下。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The materials teams or our purchasing teams have essentially, if we look at it, performed above market for at least the last six, seven quarters. So that's certainly been a tailwind that's helped us here.

    從我們的角度來看,材料團隊或我們的採購團隊至少在過去六、七個季度的表現基本上高於市場水準。所以這無疑是對我們有幫助的順風。

  • Matt Krieger - Analyst

    Matt Krieger - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. That's it for me. Thanks.

    知道了。這很有幫助。對我來說就是這樣。謝謝。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Matt. Thanks.

    謝謝,馬特。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Mike Leithead, Barclays.

    麥克萊特黑德,巴克萊銀行。

  • Mike Leithead - Analyst

    Mike Leithead - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you. Good morning, guys. I wanted to ask about the 2026 A Plan. It looks like for most of the metrics, you're about halfway to your three-year goals after a good first year here. So other than perhaps sales, do you think most of the A Plan targets are reachable in 2025? And if that's the case, how should investors, at least on a preliminary basis, think about what's beyond the A Plan for Axalta?

    是的,謝謝。早安,夥計們。我想問一下2026年A計畫。看起來對於大多數指標來說,在經歷了良好的第一年之後,您已經實現了三年目標的一半。那麼,除了銷售額之外,您認為 A 計畫的大部分目標都能在 2025 年實現嗎?如果是這樣的話,投資人應該如何(至少在初步基礎上)思考艾仕得計畫之外的內容?

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's a great question, Mike. As I look at it, that's the main, you would have noticed it in our remarks a few times. One of the things that we're going to focus on is accelerating our A Plan. If you look across the five metrics, where let's call it 25% on sales and on the rest of the metrics, where I would say somewhere between 70% to almost 100% there. So it's a great story. So you can see that we can certainly accelerate it. And specific to the sales line item, my view and confidence there is if I look at the last two years, this company's been able to drive $400 to $500 million of sales growth. So it's pretty straightforward how you can track to that growth in the next two years of 2025 and '26.

    這是一個很好的問題,麥克。我看,這是主要的,你會在我們的言論中註意到它幾次。我們要關注的事情之一是加速我們的 A 計劃。如果你查看這五個指標,我們稱之為銷售額的 25%,而其餘指標則為 70% 到幾乎 100%。所以這是一個很棒的故事。所以你可以看到我們當然可以加速它。具體到銷售項目,如果我看看過去兩年,我的觀點和信心是,這家公司能夠推動 400 至 5 億美元的銷售成長。因此,如何追蹤 2025 年和 26 年未來兩年的成長情況非常簡單。

  • That said, I believe that with the pace of new wins coming in and maybe with a little bit of favorable market, our goal is to ensure that we accelerate the A Plan over the next bit of time. As we lay out our '25, let's call it, guide in three months from now, you'll get a better picture based on where we think we will go with that. And we'll certainly look at seeing if we need to pull forward the next time we do an investor release of the, let's call it, the A 2029 Plan.

    也就是說,我相信,隨著新勝利的到來,也許還有一些有利的市場,我們的目標是確保我們在接下來的一段時間內加速實施 A 計畫。當我們在三個月後制定我們的「25」(我們稱之為「指南」)時,您將根據我們認為的發展方向獲得更好的畫面。下次我們向投資者發布「A 2029 計畫」時,我們肯定會考慮是否需要提前推進。

  • Mike Leithead - Analyst

    Mike Leithead - Analyst

  • Great. That's super helpful. And then maybe just to follow up on capital deployment, how are you guys looking at the relative value between the M&A pipeline and buying back your own shares here at current levels?

    偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後也許只是為了跟進資本部署,你們如何看待併購管道和以當前水準回購自己的股票之間的相對價值?

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll start that up and I'll hand it over to Carl here. But the A Plan essentially had us working on four, let's call it, pillars, which was share buybacks, M&A, investing in our plans that directed towards capital, and then M&A. And at this point, from our perspective, we bought $100 million so far. And if I look at it, at what it came in at, where the current share price is, even at this point, we've certainly created value, so we're quite proud of what we've been able to accomplish there. But obviously M&A and investing in the business certainly is pillars of it, and we will deploy it, I would call it, pretty equally across that. But I'm just going to maybe hand it off to Carl unless I miss something.

    我會開始,然後將其交給卡爾。但 A 計劃本質上讓我們致力於四個支柱,我們稱之為支柱,即股票回購、併購、投資於我們的資本計劃,然後是併購。此時,從我們的角度來看,我們迄今為止已經購買了 1 億美元。如果我看看它的營收、目前股價,即使在這一點上,我們也確實創造了價值,所以我們對我們所能取得的成就感到非常自豪。但顯然,併購和投資業務肯定是它的支柱,我們將在這方面相當平等地部署它,我稱之為它。但我可能會把它交給卡爾,除非我錯過了什麼。

  • Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • No, I think the word is balance as we think about how we're going to continue to deploy capital, not only to M&A, as well as share repurchases. Those would be kind of the two primary things that we'll be focused on. But candidly, I think there's a little bit more on growth step reduction as well that we're going to be focused on, especially here in the near term.

    不,我認為這個詞是平衡,因為我們考慮如何繼續部署資本,不僅用於併購,還用於股票回購。這些將是我們將關注的兩個主要問題。但坦白說,我認為我們還將關注更多關於成長步伐減少的問題,尤其是在短期內。

  • Mike Leithead - Analyst

    Mike Leithead - Analyst

  • Great, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    Aleksey Yefremov,KeyBanc 資本市場。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, Aleksey.

    早安,阿列克謝。

  • Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

    Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone. Good morning, Chris. I wanted to ask about just the more recent trends in the body shop activity. Is it stable, improving or softening in the recent months?

    大家早安。早上好,克里斯。我想詢問車身修理廠活動的最新趨勢。近幾個月來是穩定、改善還是軟化?

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would call it stable to softening. So it depends on the region. Aleksey, I would call China is a bit soft. I would call Europe being stable. I would call North America soft a bit. And then I'd call LATAM being strong. So I hope that's a bit helpful. In terms of body shop activity, I want to see how the next year works through. But at this time, as we've already finished a month and we're giving a Q4 guide and giving a full year perspective here, we're quite comfortable with where the volumes are.

    我將其稱為軟化穩定。所以這取決於地區。阿列克謝,我認為中國有點軟弱。我認為歐洲是穩定的。我認為北美有點軟。然後我會說拉丁美洲很強大。所以我希望這有點幫助。就車身修理廠活動而言,我想看看明年的情況如何。但目前,由於我們已經完成了一個月的工作,並且我們正在提供第四季度指南並給出全年展望,因此我們對銷售的情況感到非常滿意。

  • Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

    Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

  • Okay, makes sense. And given your strategy of pursuing the economy refinish market, what have you observed this year in terms of differences in economy or premium? Has the pressure been about the same on the market or did one do better than the other?

    好吧,有道理。鑑於你們追求經濟型修補漆市場的策略,今年你們在經濟型或溢價型方面觀察到了什麼差異?市場上的壓力是否大致相同,或者其中一個的表現比另一個更好?

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think, let's just start with the economy segment. So the economy, our approach into this was with CoverFlexx. And don't forget, we just started that just over a quarter ago. And if I was just to talk to the deal itself, it's ahead of plan, as we call it. I would call it revenue right on plan. But let's call it margin and performance on the bottom line is ahead of plan.

    我認為,讓我們從經濟領域開始。因此,在經濟方面,我們的解決方案是使用 CoverFlexx。別忘了,我們四分之一年前才剛開始。如果我只是談論交易本身,我們稱之為提前計劃。我將其稱為計劃中的收入。但我們稱之為利潤率,而淨利潤的表現超出了計劃。

  • So, again, start deal dynamics. It's in great shape. So, I think that's certainly to the last question that Mike asked, if I think about M&A between André Koch and CoverFlexx that we did this year, we're certainly seeing a recent competency on our ability to execute.

    所以,再次開始交易動態。它的形狀很好。所以,我認為這肯定是麥克提出的最後一個問題,如果我考慮今年我們在 André Koch 和 CoverFlexx 之間進行的併購,我們肯定會看到我們最近的執行能力。

  • So we will continue to look at, let's call it bolt-on acquisitions to get us more into adjacencies and to the economy space if I think about the first half or the first half to the full year next year. Because that business from the one quarter that we've looked at, Aleksey, seems somewhat stable as we go through with our just one quarter's view.

    因此,如果我考慮上半年或明年上半年到全年的話,我們將繼續關注,讓我們稱之為補強收購,以使我們更多地進入鄰近地區和經濟領域。因為我們觀察的一個季度的業務,Aleksey,在我們只觀察一個季度的觀點時似乎有些穩定。

  • The premium segment, obviously the current dynamic makes it quite competitive. The marketplace is competitive. However, as I announced, we have certainly won a new MSO here in this space. And I believe here the difference is, Axalta being the leader in the premium segment, we've certainly earned our right to be here and play here in the service level. The IRUS ecosystem, the 160 years of experience, all of that builds to the strength of the company that we have here.

    顯然,目前的動態使其高端市場具有相當的競爭力。市場競爭激烈。然而,正如我所宣布的,我們確實在這個領域贏得了一個新的 MSO。我相信這裡的區別在於,艾仕得是高端市場的領導者,我們當然贏得了來到這裡並在服務水準上發揮作用的權利。IRUS 生態系統、160 年的經驗,所有這些都增強了我們公司的實力。

  • So, as I look at losses here, we've still been able to win 2,100 net body shops. If I look at the full year, I believe we'll get up to that 2,500 body shops. If I look at a 10-year look, sorry, a four-year look, we have 10,000 body shops that we've won. So at this point, even though the marketplace is competitive, we continue to win. So feel quite confident here.

    因此,當我查看這裡的損失時,我們仍然能夠贏得 2,100 家淨車身修理店。如果我看一下全年情況,我相信我們的車身修理廠數量將達到 2,500 家。如果我看一下 10 年的外觀,對不起,如果看一下 4 年的外觀,我們已經贏得了 10,000 家車身修理廠。因此,在這一點上,儘管市場競爭激烈,我們仍會繼續獲勝。所以在這裡感到非常有信心。

  • Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

    Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

  • Thanks, Chris.

    謝謝,克里斯。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You're welcome Aleksey.

    不客氣,阿列克謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

    史蒂夫伯恩,美國銀行。

  • Steve Byrne - Analyst

    Steve Byrne - Analyst

  • Thank you. I'm sure you're aware your valuation multiple as compared to your peers is significantly different depending on whether you're looking at a PE multiple or an EBITDA multiple with that Delta driven largely by your interest expense and your tax rate. And Carl, you made a comment about 50% of your debt is floating. Do you have a view on where interest expense could be for 2025 and any plans to structurally change your tax expense?

    謝謝。我相信您知道您的估值倍數與同業相比有很大不同,具體取決於您考慮的是市盈率倍數還是 EBITDA 倍數,其中 Delta 主要由您的利息支出和稅率驅動。卡爾,你說過你的債務的 50% 是浮動的。您是否對 2025 年利息支出有何看法以及是否有計劃從結構上改變您的稅務支出?

  • Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes, Steve, as I look out in front of 2025, we're still finalizing the plans already. Some of it will be subject to what happens with the Fed and how many rate moves there are. But I would say it's fair to say that you should -- we will definitely be sub $200 million of interest expense. As we kind of get next year, I think we're -- could it be in that 190 range or even a little bit below most likely as we think about where interest expense should go. So we'll be very proactive as we kind of manage the debt maturity profile as well. So I'm feeling better and better about where we are from a leverage perspective. You can see, and even if I look out next year, we're tracking to be probably closer to the lower end of our leverage target range as well.

    是的,史蒂夫,當我展望 2025 年時,我們仍在敲定計劃。其中一些將取決於聯準會的情況以及利率調整的次數。但我想說,公平地說,我們的利息支出肯定會低於 2 億美元。正如我們明年所得到的那樣,我認為當我們考慮利息支出應該去往哪裡時,我們可能會在 190 的範圍內,甚至低於一點點。因此,我們將非常積極主動地管理債務到期狀況。因此,從槓桿角度來看,我對我們的處境感覺越來越好。您可以看到,即使我展望明年,我們也可能接近槓桿目標範圍的下限。

  • So I think you'll see a little bit of tailwind just from interest expense, Steve, as we think about next year. And then from the tax rate perspective, obviously agree, I think we have a lot of initiatives that we're beginning to work on where we're trying to determine how we can continue to drive that down lower. At the end, it's all of that feeds into EPS, as you know. I think this year being up 37% year-over-year, we're off to a great start. But I also think there is a lot more we can be doing in those two items next year.

    因此,我認為,正如我們明年所考慮的那樣,史蒂夫,你會看到利息支出帶來一些推動作用。然後從稅率的角度來看,顯然同意,我認為我們正在開始採取很多舉措,試圖確定如何繼續降低稅率。最後,如您所知,所有這些都會流入每股收益。我認為今年同比增長 37%,我們有了一個良好的開端。但我也認為明年我們在這兩個項目上還可以做更多的事情。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Steve, maybe just to add on that, if I think about the multiple story, I think part of it is the consistency of execution. I believe Axalta has what has been viewed as Goldilocks that needs to be too hot or needs to be too cold or needs to be cold. I think that the difference is that has changed. We're holding ourselves to a higher standard here. And that's certainly demonstrated through the past three, four quarters where we've eaten waste all the last three times. So my hope is through the focus on execution and the growth that you should see through the next few quarters that will be achieved through eliminating our A Plan that we get there, the confidence that we need here.

    史蒂夫,也許只是補充一點,如果我考慮多重故事,我認為其中一部分是執行的一致性。我相信艾仕得擁有被視為金髮女孩的東西,需要太熱或需要太冷或需要太冷。我認為差別在於已經改變了。我們在這裡以更高的標準要求自己。在過去的三、四個季度中,我們已經連續三次吃掉了廢物,這無疑證明了這一點。因此,我的希望是透過專注於執行和未來幾個季度的成長,這將透過消除我們到達那裡的計劃以及我們在這裡需要的信心來實現。

  • Steve Byrne - Analyst

    Steve Byrne - Analyst

  • Very good. And maybe one follow-up on SG&A on an absolute dollar value flat year-over-year. One would think that incentive comp would be up just simply from your earnings growth. What are you doing there? Is that headcount reduction that's enabling you to keep SG&A flat?

    非常好。SG&A 的後續行動可能是絕對美元價值與去年同期持平。人們可能會認為激勵補償會因為你的收入成長而增加。你在那裡做什麼?裁員是否能讓您的 SG&A 保持不變?

  • Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes, I think it's a combination of headcount reduction that we've been talking to the last couple of quarters. But then I think even on a year-over-year basis, purely on incentive comp, it's pretty flat on a year-over-year basis. So it's really not kind of, you're not seeing that incremental expense come through in 2024. So overall, I think this will continue to be a focus for us as we are managing the business here, especially here in the near term, as we think about where markets are. But to date, we've done, I think a pretty decent job in managing just not only SG&A, but all of the cost structures this year.

    是的,我認為這是我們過去幾個季度一直在討論的裁員的綜合結果。但我認為,即使在同比基礎上,純粹基於激勵補償,它與去年同期相比也相當持平。所以這真的不是一種情況,你不會看到 2024 年會出現增量支出。因此,總的來說,我認為這將繼續成為我們管理業務的重點,特別是在短期內,因為我們考慮市場在哪裡。但到目前為止,我認為我們不僅在管理銷售、行政管理方面,而且在管理今年的所有成本結構方面都做得相當不錯。

  • Steve Byrne - Analyst

    Steve Byrne - Analyst

  • Pretty good. Thank you.

    不錯。謝謝。

  • Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Welcome.

    歡迎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

    凱文·麥卡錫,垂直研究夥伴。

  • Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

    Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

  • Thank you and good morning. Chris, it sounds like you have a lot of positive fundamental momentum in the marketplace today. And yet, if we look at your fourth quarter guidance, it seems to imply a little bit more sequential deceleration into year end than has been evident over the last couple of years. So can you speak to kind of your working view of seasonality and maybe other puts and takes that would impact the near term profile and how conservative do you think you're being in setting forth that quarterly guide?

    謝謝你,早安。克里斯,聽起來您今天的市場有很多積極的基本面動力。然而,如果我們看看你們第四季的指導,這似乎意味著到年底的連續減速比過去幾年明顯要多一些。那麼,您能否談談您對季節性的工作看法,以及可能會影響近期概況的其他看跌期權和採取的觀點,以及您認為您在製定季度指南時的保守程度如何?

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, Kevin, good morning. I think if you look at the Q4, Q4 comp, obviously commercial vehicle is down from where it was a year ago. That's about 25% from what we saw on the CV side in North America where Class 8 is. The second element of this is obvious with the seasonality that we normally see in light vehicle and ROE business that trends down at this period and also the Christmas shutdowns that we see. So a lot of that is driven by that dynamic.

    嘿,凱文,早安。我認為,如果你看看第四季度,第四季度的對比,顯然商用車的水平比一年前有所下降。這大約是我們在北美 CV 方面看到的 8 級車的 25% 左右。第二個因素是顯而易見的,我們通常在輕型車和 ROE 業務中看到的季節性趨勢在這段期間呈下降趨勢,而且我們也看到聖誕節停工。所以很多都是由這種動力驅動的。

  • The good thing about it is if you look through that, even with that dynamic where I think doing a good job in maintaining margins, is there an upside? We're just being cautious here and being careful in watching the market as we go through just to make sure it's certainly something that there's a lot of dynamics that we have to watch here.

    這樣做的好處是,如果你仔細觀察一下,即使在我認為在維持利潤方面做得很好的情況下,是否有好處?我們只是在這裡保持謹慎,並在我們經歷的過程中小心觀察市場,以確保我們必須在這裡觀察很多動態。

  • Obviously, in North America, we have the elections. If I think about the global crisis, whether it's in terms of what's happening in Israel or what's happening in Ukraine. And so there's a little bit of uncertainty that we have to watch. So we want to also manage our volumes or our view of market. That's how we've done it to this point. We've assumed that even with markets, wherever they would be that we make sure that we drive to hit our performance in terms of a margin perspective. And that's clearly our focus here. But yes, so I think that's what we're doing.

    顯然,在北美,我們有選舉。如果我考慮全球危機,無論是以色列發生的事情還是烏克蘭發生的事情。因此,我們必須專注於一些不確定性。因此,我們也想管理我們的數量或我們對市場的看法。到目前為止,我們就是這樣做的。我們假設,即使有市場,無論市場在哪裡,我們都會確保我們在利潤率方面努力實現我們的業績。這顯然是我們的重點。但是,是的,所以我認為這就是我們正在做的事情。

  • The cool part about this, again, is if you know that the CV margins in the mobility business is quite strong. And even with that, again, as I pointed out, the Q4 margins for mobility should tell you the stability that the business has built into making sure that we watch the bottom half of the P&L.

    同樣,最酷的部分是,如果您知道行動業務的CV利潤率相當高。即便如此,正如我所指出的,第四季度的流動性利潤率應該告訴你該業務所建立的穩定性,以確保我們專注於損益表的下半部分。

  • Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

    Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

  • Yes, fair enough. I appreciate that. Secondly, if I may, just to follow up on the margin discussion and specifically the margin opportunity and mobility, maybe you're tracking to an EBITDA margin of, I don't know, 15% this year in mobility, plus or minus. And as good as that level is versus recent history, there's precedent for segment margins being 400 or 500 basis points better than that if we go all the way back to the 2015, the '17 timeframe. So one question would be, if the cycle cooperated in terms of global auto production levels, do you think there's upside to the high teens over the next several years? Or have things changed in the structure of the business whereby that would be kind of an unrealistic stretch goal?

    是的,很公平。我很欣賞這一點。其次,如果可以的話,我想跟進一下利潤率討論,特別是利潤率機會和流動性,也許你的EBITDA 利潤率(我不知道)今年的流動性為15%,無論是正值還是負值。儘管這一水平與近期歷史相比相當不錯,但如果我們一直追溯到 2015 年(即 17 年的時間框架),部門利潤率比以前高 400 或 500 個基點是有先例的。因此,一個問題是,如果這一周期在全球汽車生產水平方面配合,您認為未來幾年高十幾歲的水平是否有上升空間?或者業務結構是否發生了變化,這將是不切實際的延伸目標?

  • Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Carl Anderson - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Well, I think in terms of 400 basis points, that would be a little bit, I think there was Venezuela and there was elements of that in South America and there was parts of the business that were structured differently if we go back almost 10 years ago. But is there upside in the margin profile? I would certainly say we should see some more upside going forward into next year. The new business that we are winning is margin-accretive to the overall portfolio. So my expectation is that the business will continue to see some upside in margin as long as markets support that going forward.

    嗯,我認為就 400 個基點而言,這會有點,我認為委內瑞拉和南美也有類似的因素,如果我們回到近 10 年前,部分業務的結構會有所不同。但利潤率有上升空間嗎?我當然會說,明年我們應該會看到更多的上行空間。我們贏得的新業務可以為整個投資組合帶來利潤成長。因此,我的預期是,只要市場支持未來,該業務的利潤率將繼續出現一些上漲。

  • The other element of this -- is the key element of this is if you think about the commercial vehicle pre-buy for the '27 emissions change, that would mean in '26 and probably the back half of '25, you should see that volume pick back up again. And so if you know where we are and you assume a '26 at this point is being projected at 350,000 trucks, that should give us a good tailwind as I look about where margins could go into 2025, the back end of '25 and certainly into '26.

    另一個因素 - 關鍵因素是,如果您考慮為 27 年排放變化預購商用車,這意味著在 26 年甚至可能是 25 年後半段,您應該會看到音量再次回升。因此,如果你知道我們現在的處境,並且假設26 年預計將生產350,000 輛卡車,那麼當我考慮2025 年的利潤率、25 年的後端以及當然的情況時,這應該會給我們帶來良好的推動力。

  • Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

    Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

  • Very helpful. Thank you.

    非常有幫助。謝謝。

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • John Roberts, Mizuho.

    約翰·羅伯茨,瑞穗。

  • John Roberts - Analyst

    John Roberts - Analyst

  • Thank you, I think Volkswagen is a meaningful customer for your mobility segment. How are you thinking about their recent curtailment announcements?

    謝謝,我認為大眾汽車對於你們的行動領域來說是一個有意義的客戶。您如何看待他們最近的限電公告?

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I think as all of us are, we're looking at footprint as, even if you look at our transformation initiative, we've looked at -- we're downsizing our own footprint by two facilities. So I can understand what Volkswagen is doing. And obviously with the cost structures that we all face, these are the things that we have to do. But in terms of a customer, the volumes are the volumes. So for us from a volume perspective, we will still supply them into their facilities at their demand levels that they have at this point.

    是的,我認為我們所有人都在關注足跡,即使你看看我們的轉型計劃,我們也考慮過——我們正在透過兩個設施縮小我們自己的足跡。所以我能理解大眾汽車在做什麼。顯然,考慮到我們都面臨的成本結構,這些是我們必須要做的事情。但對客戶而言,數量就是數量。因此,從數量角度來看,我們仍將按照他們目前的需求水準向他們的設施供應。

  • And we're also starting to see more regional dynamic where there is moves for, let's call it, insuring of new customers or customers coming back in, even with the view of Chinese OEMs moving out and coming back, coming into LATAM or coming into Mexico. Our strength there, as well as our strength with our, let's call it, established partners, is something that is what's really driving that growth of the business. If I look at what we see as new wins for '25. So I hope that's helpful, John.

    我們也開始看到更多的區域動態,我們可以稱之為,確保新客戶或客戶回來,即使中國原始設備製造商遷出又回來,進入拉丁美洲或進入拉丁美洲。我們在這方面的優勢,以及我們與我們(我們可以稱之為「老牌合作夥伴」)的優勢,才是真正推動業務成長的因素。如果我看看我們認為 25 年的新勝利。所以我希望這對你有幫助,約翰。

  • John Roberts - Analyst

    John Roberts - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you. I'll pass it

    是的,謝謝。我會通過它

  • Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Chrishan Villavarayan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So I think this is the last question. As we close out here, since I won't be talking to, we won't be talking to a lot of you till the end of the year. Really want to thank all our investors and certainly our employees for three quarters of beats and raises. And we look forward to continuing progressing on our A plan, as I think about 2025 and beyond. Thank you very much. Absolutely excited for the future of this company.

    是的。所以我認為這是最後一個問題。當我們結束時,由於我不會與你們交談,所以直到今年年底我們也不會與你們中的許多人交談。真的要感謝我們所有的投資者,當然還有我們的員工,感謝他們四分之三的加薪。正如我對 2025 年及以後的展望一樣,我們期待繼續推進我們的 A 計劃。非常感謝。對這家公司的未來感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude the Axalta Coating Systems third quarter 2024 earnings call. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.

    謝謝。艾仕得塗料系統 2024 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。