美國水務 (AWK) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

美國水務公司在第三季財報中討論了與未來事件和財務表現相關的潛在風險和不確定性。他們強調了強勁的財務業績、新高階主管的任命,並確認了 2024 年每股收益指引。

該公司概述了 2025 年獲利指引、每股盈餘和股息成長的長期目標以及資本投資計畫。他們強調了客戶承受能力、監管活動和策略收購的重要性。該公司的長期策略著重於增加基礎設施投資、平衡客戶承受能力以及維持強勁的資產負債表。

他們預計每年的現金稅約為 1 億美元,並加快了資本計劃以產生受監管的收益。他們的利率案例策略是由基礎設施投資和及時回收投資的需求所驅動的。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Aaron Musgrave - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Aaron Musgrave - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • (technical difficulty) Our current expectations, estimates and assumptions. However, since these statements deal with future events, they are subject to numerous known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to be materially different from the results indicated or implied by such statements. Additional information regarding these risks, uncertainties and factors as well as a more detailed analysis of our financials and other important information is provided in the third quarter earnings release and in our September 30 Form 10-Q each filed yesterday with the SEC. And finally, all statements during this presentation related to earnings and earnings per share, refer to diluted earnings and diluted earnings per share.

    (技術難點)我們目前的預期、估計和假設。然而,由於這些陳述涉及未來事件,因此它們受到許多已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響,這些因素可能導致實際結果與此類陳述所表明或暗示的結果有重大差異。有關這些風險、不確定性和因素的更多信息,以及對我們財務狀況和其他重要信息的更詳細分析,請參閱第三季度收益報告和我們昨天向SEC 提交的9 月30 日表格10-Q 。最後,本簡報中與收益和每股盈餘相關的所有陳述均指稀釋收益和稀釋每股盈餘。

  • John Griffith, our President, will share highlights of the third quarter and year to date results and will comment on our 2025 EPS guidance and longer-term targets. David Bowler, our Executive Vice President and CFO, will discuss our year to date financial results in more detail, general rate case updates, our 2025 outlook and our five-year financing plan. Cheryl Norton, our Executive Vice President and COO, will then discuss our new capital investment plan including the expected impact of EPA's Lead & Copper Rule Improvements and we'll conclude with comments on customer affordability and our acquisition outlook. Susan Hardwick, our CEO, will conclude with a look at our compelling investment thesis. After our prepared remarks, we'll then close by answering your questions.

    我們的總裁約翰·格里菲斯 (John Griffith) 將分享第三季和年初至今的業績亮點,並對我們的 2025 年每股收益指導和長期目標發表評論。我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 David Bowler 將更詳細地討論我們今年迄今為止的財務業績、一般利率案例更新、我們的 2025 年展望和我們的五年融資計劃。然後,我們的執行副總裁兼首席營運長謝麗爾·諾頓(Cheryl Norton) 將討論我們新的資本投資計劃,包括EPA 鉛和銅規則改進的預期影響,最後我們將對客戶的承受能力和我們的收購前景發表評論。我們的執行長蘇珊哈德威克 (Susan Hardwick) 將總結我們引人注目的投資論點。在我們準備好的發言之後,我們將回答您的問題。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to American Water's President, John Griffith.

    接下來,我會將電話轉給美國水務公司總裁約翰‧格里菲斯 (John Griffith)。

  • John Griffith - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Griffith - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Aaron, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝,亞倫,大家早安。

  • Let me start by saying how happy we are to have David in the role of CFO after having served as our Deputy CFO and Treasurer. You'll hear more from David shortly. And likewise, as we noted last quarter, I'm pleased to hand the business development baton to Cheryl, whose oversight of our state Presidents in her role as Chief Operating Officer is key to our business development activities as we continue to drive enhanced focus on origination activities at the state level.

    首先我要說的是,我們非常高興 David 在擔任我們的副財務長和財務主管後擔任財務長。很快你就會聽到大衛的更多消息。同樣,正如我們上季度指出的那樣,我很高興將業務發展接力棒交給謝麗爾,她作為首席營運官對我們州總統的監督是我們業務發展活動的關鍵,因為我們將繼續加強對以下方面的關注:州一級的發起活動。

  • Let's turn to slide 5 and I'll start by covering some highlights from the third quarter and year to date periods. As we announced yesterday, we delivered strong financial results in the third quarter in line with our expectations, adding to an already strong 2024. Earnings were $1.80 per share for the quarter compared to $1.66 for the same period last year. In the first nine months of 2024, earnings were $4.17 per share compared to $4.03 for the same period last year. Our results reflect the clear execution of our plan in 2024 which David and Cheryl will discuss further. These results give us confidence to affirm our 2024 EPS guidance of $5.25 to $5.30 per share, which as you will recall from last quarter represents our narrowing of guidance to the top half of the previous guidance range.

    讓我們轉向幻燈片 5,我將首先介紹第三季和年初至今的一些亮點。正如我們昨天宣布的那樣,我們第三季的財務業績符合我們的預期,為本已強勁的 2024 年業績增添了色彩。本季每股收益為 1.80 美元,去年同期為 1.66 美元。2024 年前 9 個月,每股收益為 4.17 美元,去年同期為 4.03 美元。我們的結果反映了我們 2024 年計劃的明確執行情況,David 和 Cheryl 將進一步討論該計劃。這些結果讓我們有信心確認 2024 年每股收益指引為 5.25 美元至 5.30 美元,正如您回想的那樣,上個季度的結果表明我們將指導範圍縮小到先前指導範圍的上半部分。

  • As a reminder, our 2024 and 2025 EPS guidance ranges include $0.10 per share of incremental interest income from the amendment of the HOS note earlier this year, which is on top of the interest income from the original note terms that we are replacing with earnings from the regulated business. As we said in the past, repayment of the note is a component of our long-term financing plan as a source of funding for our growth. I also want to highlight that just a few days ago, we closed the $230 million acquisition of the wastewater system assets of Butler Area Sewer Authority in Pennsylvania. Our Pennsylvania team assisted by the corporate business development team, worked hard to complete this deal which adds 15,000 customers who we are pleased to begin serving.

    提醒一下,我們的2024 年和2025 年EPS 指導範圍包括今年早些時候HOS 票據修訂帶來的每股0.10 美元的增量利息收入,這是在我們將原始票據條款的利息收入替換為來自原始票據條款的利息收入之上的。正如我們過去所說,償還票據是我們長期融資計畫的一部分,作為我們成長的資金來源。我還想強調的是,就在幾天前,我們完成了以 2.3 億美元收購賓州巴特勒地區下水道管理局廢水系統資產的交易。我們的賓州團隊在企業業務開發團隊的協助下,努力完成這筆交易,增加了 15,000 名客戶,我們很高興開始為這些客戶提供服務。

  • Turning to slide 6, we are initiating our 2025 earnings guidance of $5.65 to $5.75 per share. This represents 8% EPS growth in 2025 compared to our weather-normalized 2024 EPS guidance which David will discuss in further detail. As we roll out our updated five-year plan today, we are affirming our long-term targets including 7% to 9% EPS and dividend compounded annual growth rates. As a regulated water and wastewater utility, rate base growth, regulatory and capital execution and operational excellence are the key drivers of growth for our company. We expect to achieve 8% to 9% rate base growth over the next decade driven by the accelerated CapEx plan we put forth three years ago to meet reliability, resiliency and compliance needs.

    轉向投影片 6,我們將 2025 年每股收益指引定為 5.65 美元至 5.75 美元。與我們的天氣正常化 2024 年 EPS 指導相比,這意味著 2025 年 EPS 增長 8%,David 將進一步詳細討論該指導。當我們今天推出更新的五年計畫時,我們確認了我們的長期目標,包括 7% 至 9% 的每股盈餘和股息複合年增長率。作為一家受監管的供水和污水處理公司,費率基礎成長、監管和資本執行以及卓越營運是我們公司成長的關鍵驅動力。在我們三年前提出的加速資本支出計畫的推動下,我們預計未來十年將實現 8% 至 9% 的基礎成長率,以滿足可靠性、彈性和合規性需求。

  • Our rate base growth includes our regulated acquisition strategy which drives a growing customer base as well as the organic revenue growth opportunities we expect from our Military Services Group. Along with our affordability and sustainability leadership, we believe these are the drivers of American Water's very competitive and sustainable shareholder return. In today's closing remarks, Susan will share her thoughts on our position as a premium regulated utility.

    我們的費率基礎增長包括我們受監管的收購策略,該策略推動不斷增長的客戶群以及我們期望從軍事服務集團獲得的有機收入成長機會。除了我們的負擔能力和永續發展領導力之外,我們相信這些是美國水務公司極具競爭力和永續股東回報的驅動力。在今天的結案陳詞中,蘇珊將分享她對我們作為優質受監管公用事業公司的地位的看法。

  • In closing, on slide 7, I want to emphasize that we expect to achieve consistent EPS growth within the 7% to 9% range through 2029 and beyond. We are demonstrating in 2024 and with our guidance for 2025 that the business plan we set forth following the sale of HOS is strong and compelling. Our commitment to solving problems for our customers remains steadfast including addressing PFAS, lead and copper and aging infrastructure among other challenges. No other water and wastewater utility has a combination of the scale, geographic diversity, and expertise that we have. This foundation coupled with the capital investment needs in our industry, uniquely positions American Water to achieve consistently strong earnings growth for many years to come.

    最後,在投影片 7 中,我想強調,我們預計到 2029 年及以後,每股盈餘將持續成長在 7% 至 9% 的範圍內。我們將在 2024 年和 2025 年指導中證明,我們在出售居屋後製定的業務計劃是強而有力且引人注目的。我們始終堅定地致力於為客戶解決問題,包括解決 PFAS、鉛和銅以及基礎設施老化等挑戰。沒有其他供水和污水處理設施能夠像我們一樣擁有規模、地理多樣性和專業知識。這一基礎加上我們行業的資本投資需求,使美國水務公司處於獨特的地位,並能夠在未來許多年實現持續強勁的獲利成長。

  • One final note before I turn it over to David. As you know, earlier this month, we notified stakeholders of unauthorized activity within our computer networks and systems, which we determined to be the result of a cybersecurity incident. Importantly, none of the company's water or wastewater facilities were impacted by this incident. While the investigation of the incident by a dedicated team of professionals is ongoing, we do not expect that this incident will have a material effect on the company or its financial condition or results of operations.

    在我把它交給大衛之前,還有最後一句話。如您所知,本月早些時候,我們向利益相關者通報了我們電腦網路和系統內未經授權的活動,我們確定這是網路安全事件的結果。重要的是,該公司的供水或廢水處理設施均未受到此事件的影響。雖然專門的專業團隊正在對該事件進行調查,但我們預計該事件不會對公司或其財務狀況或經營業績產生重大影響。

  • With that, I'll hand it over to David to cover our financial results and plans in further detail. David?

    有了這個,我將把它交給大衛,以進一步詳細介紹我們的財務表現和計劃。大衛?

  • David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝約翰,大家早安。

  • Before I get started with results, let me first say how excited I am to assume the role of CFO at American Water and continue my work with this great team. I also look forward to meeting many of you at EEI in a couple of weeks.

    在開始介紹結果之前,我首先要說的是,能夠擔任美國水務公司財務長並繼續與這個偉大的團隊一起工作,我感到多麼興奮。我也期待幾週後在 EEI 見到你們中的許多人。

  • Turning to 9, let me provide a few more details on year to date results. Consolidated earnings were $4.17 per share, up $0.14 per share compared to the same period in 2023 and up $0.18 per share on a weather-normalized basis. As noted, earnings in 2024 were higher by an estimated $0.07 per share as a result of weather in the second and third quarters as compared to $0.11 per share of favorable weather in the second and third quarters of 2023. Excluding the impacts of weather, revenues increased by $0.84 per share driven primarily by general rate case outcomes in 2023 and thus far in 2024.

    談到 9,讓我提供一些有關今年迄今為止結果的更多細節。合併收益為每股 4.17 美元,與 2023 年同期相比每股上漲 0.14 美元,在天氣正常化的基礎上每股上漲 0.18 美元。如前所述,由於第二季和第三季的天氣原因,2024 年的每股盈餘預計增加 0.07 美元,而 2023 年第二季和第三季的有利天氣導致每股收益增加 0.11 美元。排除天氣的影響,每股收入增長了 0.84 美元,這主要是受到 2023 年和 2024 年迄今為止一般費率案例結果的推動。

  • And looking at operating cost, O&M was hired by $0.19 per share driven primarily by employee related costs and other increases to support growth in the business as we expected. Production costs related to fuel, power and chemicals were also slightly higher compared to this period in 2023. Next, general taxes which are comprised of property and gross receipts taxes were higher by $0.06 per share with the increase in property tax tied to the level of capital investment and higher gross receipts tax driven by higher revenue primarily in New Jersey. Depreciation increased $0.21 per share and long-term financing costs increased $0.28 per share as -- both as expected in support of our investment growth.

    就營運成本而言,O&M 的聘用價格為每股 0.19 美元,這主要是由於員工相關成本以及其他支援業務成長的成長,正如我們預期的那樣。與2023年同期相比,與燃料、電力和化學品相關的生產成本也略有上升。其次,由財產稅和總收入稅組成的一般稅每股上漲 0.06 美元,財產稅的增加與資本投資水準相關,而總收入稅的增加主要是由新澤西州的收入增加所致。每股折舊增加 0.21 美元,每股長期融資成本增加 0.28 美元,兩者均符合支持我們投資成長的預期。

  • The higher long term financing cost includes interest on the $1 billion convertible note issue whence from last June, the $1.4 billion senior note issuance in this February as well as $0.07 of dilution from last year's equity issuance.

    較高的長期融資成本包括去年6月發行的10億美元可轉換票據的利息、今年2月發行的14億美元優先票據以及去年股票發行帶來的0.07美元稀釋。

  • And finally, we had $0.07 per share of additional interest income from the February 2024 amendment of the seller note related to the sale of Homeowner Services. As we stated, we will continue to break this out quarterly. So investors can track the ongoing growth of American Water from its core regulated strategy without this additional interest income. I will also note in the appendix, you will find details on the third quarter EPS which has many of the same drivers as the year to date results.

    最後,我們從 2024 年 2 月與出售房主服務相關的賣方票據修正案中獲得了每股 0.07 美元的額外利息收入。正如我們所說,我們將繼續每季對此進行披露。因此,投資者可以透過其核心監管策略追蹤美國水務公司的持續成長,而無需額外的利息收入。我還將在附錄中指出,您將找到有關第三季度每股收益的詳細信息,其中許多驅動因素與今年迄今為止的結果相同。

  • On slide 10, I will review the latest regulatory activity in our states. First, on completed cases. We received an order from the New Jersey Commission in September approving without modification or settlement agreement of an additional $80 million in annualized revenues that was effective September 15. The commission again approved and allowed return on equity of 9.6% and an equity layer of 55%. New Jersey continues to be a constructive state that is supportive of the -- of investment to serve our customers well.

    在投影片 10 上,我將回顧我們各州的最新監管活動。第一,關於已完成的案件。我們於 9 月收到新澤西州委員會的一項命令,批准在不修改或達成和解協議的情況下額外增加 8,000 萬美元的年化收入,該命令於 9 月 15 日生效。該委員會再次批准並允許股本回報率為 9.6%,股權層為 55%。新澤西州仍然是一個建設性的州,支持投資以更好地服務我們的客戶。

  • Turning to active cases, you can see we have general rate cases in progress in several jurisdictions. These cases are centered around the capital investments we have made, and we'll continue to make in these states. In Missouri, we originally filed a rate case with a proposal for a full future test share which the commission declined to accept at this time. However, the commission provided an allowance for discrete adjustments that recognize in investments through May 2025. While not the ruling we wanted in this case, we are encouraged by the conversations we've had with the commission and are continuing to work on a legislative path for a future test share in Missouri.

    談到活躍案件,您可以看到我們在多個司法管轄區正在進行一般費率案件。這些案例以我們已經進行的資本投資為中心,我們將繼續在這些州進行投資。在密蘇裡州,我們最初提交了一份費率案件,其中提出了未來全額測試份額的提案,但委員會目前拒絕接受。然而,委員會為 2025 年 5 月之前在投資中確認的離散調整提供了準備金。雖然這不是我們想要的本案裁決,但我們與委員會的對話令我們感到鼓舞,並繼續為密蘇裡州未來的測試份額制定立法途徑。

  • Otherwise, our pace in Missouri is progressing as expected. In Illinois, we received a proposed decision from the Administrative Law Judge on October 24, recommending a 9.84% return on equity and a 49% equity layer. Final order in this case is expected no later than December 17 with new rates implemented January 1, 2025. In Virginia, on September 20, we filed a black box settlement with the Virginia Commission which agreed to a $15 million annualized increase in revenues compared to our ask of $20 million. The settlement stipulation also specified a return on equity of 9.7% which matches the current allowed return and a capital structure with an equity component of 45.67% which compares to the current approved cap structure of 40.73%.

    除此之外,我們在密蘇裡州的步伐正在如預期進行。在伊利諾州,我們於 10 月 24 日收到了行政法法官的擬議裁決,建議股本回報率為 9.84%,股權層為 49%。這種情況下的最終訂單預計不遲於 12 月 17 日發布,新費率將於 2025 年 1 月 1 日實施。在維吉尼亞州,9 月 20 日,我們向維吉尼亞委員會提交了一份黑盒子和解協議,該委員會同意將收入年化增加 1500 萬美元,而我們的要求是 2000 萬美元。和解條款還規定股本回報率為 9.7%,與目前允許的回報率相匹配,資本結構的股權部分為 45.67%,而目前批准的上限結構為 40.73%。

  • The settlement remains subject to commission review and approval. In California, we expect the final rate case decision on December 5 with new rates retroactive to January 1, 2024. As a reminder, we reached a partial settlement agreement in November 2023 with the CPUC's Public Advocates Office. That would address our revenue requirement request but did not address great design or certain other matters including a request for continuation of a revenue stabilization mechanism. Decoupling is a critical tool for conservation efforts in California as it supports the reliability and protection of water supply, which will help shape the future economic and environmental health of the communities we serve there.

    和解仍有待委員會審查和批准。在加州,我們預計最終利率案件決定將於 12 月 5 日做出,新利率追溯至 2024 年 1 月 1 日。謹此提醒,我們於 2023 年 11 月與 CPUC 公共倡議辦公室達成了部分和解協議。這將解決我們的收入要求請求,但沒有解決偉大的設計或某些其他問題,包括繼續收入穩定機制的請求。脫鉤是加州保護工作的重要工具,因為它支持供水的可靠性和保護,這將有助於塑造我們所服務的社區未來的經濟和環境健康。

  • Once we receive the order later this year, we will determine whether we need to pursue further recourse in the state related to the decouplings.

    一旦我們在今年稍後收到訂單,我們將確定是否需要在與脫鉤相關的國家尋求進一步的追索權。

  • On slide 11, we provide some considerations regarding our outlook for 2025 results and our newly established EPS guidance range of $5.65 to $5.75 per share. First, as you would expect, our growth will be driven by the returns on the capital invested to serve our customers. Cheryl will walk you through how our capital investment has grown and the specifics of the plan included in this update. As we talked about previously, 2024 is year three of our accelerated capital plan following the 2021 HOS sale. So we see that ramp up partially reflected in earnings in 2025 both from base rate cases and infrastructure mechanisms. Recent regulated acquisitions that are being incorporated into active or just completed rate cases will also drive growth next year.

    在投影片 11 中,我們提供了有關 2025 年業績展望和新制定的每股 5.65 美元至 5.75 美元每股收益指引範圍的一些考慮因素。首先,正如您所期望的那樣,我們的成長將由為客戶服務而投資的資本回報所驅動。謝麗爾將向您介紹我們的資本投資如何成長以及本次更新中包含的計畫細節。正如我們之前談到的,2024 年是繼 2021 年出售居屋之後我們加速資本計畫的第三年。因此,我們看到這種成長部分反映在 2025 年基本利率案例和基礎設施機制的收益中。最近納入活躍或剛完成的利率案例的受監管收購也將推動明年的成長。

  • Also critical to our growth strategy is our ability to prudently manage the operating cost it takes to serve our customers. While we continue to have a strong culture of operating efficiencies and cost management, we do expect O&M increases in 2025 from higher production costs, including purchase water, fuel and power, annual wage increases as well as additional costs to serve our customers from recent acquisitions. Focus on operating cost efficiencies goes to the heart of the customer affordability construct we want to protect which is closely aligned with the interests of regulators and ultimately investors in managing affordability of customer bills.

    對我們的成長策略同樣重要的是我們審慎管理服務客戶所需的營運成本的能力。雖然我們繼續擁有強大的營運效率和成本管理文化,但我們預計2025 年營運和維護將因生產成本上升而增加,包括購買水、燃料和電力、年度工資增長以及最近收購中為客戶提供服務的額外成本。對營運成本效率的關注是我們希望保護的客戶負擔能力結構的核心,這與監管機構以及最終投資者在管理客戶帳單負擔能力方面的利益密切相關。

  • The increases in general taxes, depreciation and long-term financing are driven by the continued capital investments in the system. And while I've not called out on this slide, I'd like to note that our Military Services Group still adds incrementally to our earnings growth expectation as shown in our growth outlook. MSG's great work on 18 military installations it serves has built trust and resulted in the US government allocating additional funds for improvement projects, driving increased revenues.

    一般稅收、折舊和長期融資的增加是由系統中持續的資本投資所驅動的。雖然我沒有在這張投影片上大聲疾呼,但我想指出,我們的軍事服務集團仍在逐步增加我們的獲利成長預期,如我們的成長前景所示。MSG 在其服務的 18 個軍事設施中所做的出色工作贏得了信任,並導緻美國政府為改進項目分配了額外資金,從而推動了收入的增加。

  • Turning to slide 12, I will provide a look at our balance sheet and liquidity profile before closing with a five-year financing plan update. Our total debt to capital ratio as of September 30 net of the $127 million of cash on hand remains at 56% which is well within our target of less than 60%. Our expected dividend payout ratio for 2024 of 58% is also within our target range of 55% to 60%. I want to affirm that investors can expect our company to continue to be focused on these targets over the long term.

    轉向投影片 12,我將在結束之前介紹我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況,並更新五年融資計畫。截至 9 月 30 日,扣除手頭現金 1.27 億美元後,我們的總負債與資本比率仍為 56%,完全符合我們低於 60% 的目標。我們預期 2024 年的股利支付率為 58%,也在我們 55% 至 60% 的目標範圍內。我想確認的是,投資人可以期待我們公司會長期持續關注這些目標。

  • With our continued focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet, we also remain confident that we will have access to capital for the foreseeable future. In fact, we just extended the maturity of our revolving credit facility which has a capacity of $2.75 billion by one year to October 2029. Our diversified banking relationships with some of the largest and strongest banks in the world, coupled with our fully regulated business model and strong credit ratings gives us great confidence in our -- in -- around our liquidity. In addition, our laddered approach to long term debt financing over the years has been very important in environments like the current one in managing cash flows and minimizing interest rate risk which contributes to managing customer affordability.

    隨著我們繼續致力於維持強勁的資產負債表,我們也仍然有信心在可預見的未來能夠獲得資本。事實上,我們剛剛將容量為 27.5 億美元的循環信貸安排的期限延長了一年,至 2029 年 10 月。我們與世界上一些最大、最強大的銀行建立了多元化的銀行關係,加上我們受到全面監管的業務模式和強大的信用評級,使我們對我們的流動性充滿信心。此外,多年來我們的長期債務融資階梯式方法在當前的環境中對於管理現金流和最大限度地降低利率風險非常重要,這有助於管理客戶的承受能力。

  • And our short duration between general rate cases driven by our investment allows us to minimize the lag we may experience related to recovery of financing costs.

    由我們的投資驅動的一般利率案例之間的持續時間較短,使我們能夠最大限度地減少與融資成本回收相關的滯後。

  • From this position of balance sheet strength, let's turn to slide 13 for a review of our five-year financing plan that will fund the -- the increased capital plan. In our prior five-year plan covering 2024 to 2028, we expected a total of $1 billion of equity financing in the middle of that plan. That amount and timing remains unchanged. Our updated financing plan now covering 2025 to 2029 includes an estimated total of $2.5 billion of external equity issuances with the additional $1.5 billion expected near the end of the plan and all of course, subject to market conditions. The level and timing of anticipated external equity is tied very simply to our need to fund growth and maintain our strong financial position.

    從資產負債表實力的角度來看,讓我們轉向投影片 13,回顧我們的五年融資計劃,該計劃將為增加資本計劃提供資金。在我們之前涵蓋 2024 年至 2028 年的五年計畫中,我們預計該計畫中期的股權融資總額為 10 億美元。該金額和時間保持不變。我們更新的融資計畫目前涵蓋 2025 年至 2029 年,其中包括估計總計 25 億美元的外部股權發行,預計在計畫結束時將額外發行 15 億美元,當然,這取決於市場條件。預期外部股權的水平和時間與我們為成長提供資金和維持強勁財務狀況的需求密切相關。

  • Investors should expect equity financing to occur routinely as determined by our investment program, rate case cycle and it is appropriate to maintain our strong balance sheet and credit metrics. Since we're already in alignment with our targets or debt to cap and dividend payout, we have the flexibility to adjust these plans and respond to market conditions when they change for the benefit of customers and investors alike.

    投資者應該預期股權融資將按照我們的投資計劃、利率案例週期確定的例行進行,並且維持我們強勁的資產負債表和信用指標是適當的。由於我們已經與我們的目標或債務上限和股息支付保持一致,因此我們可以靈活地調整這些計劃,並在市場條件發生變化時做出反應,以造福客戶和投資者。

  • Finally, I'll wrap up noting that our current financing plan for calendar year 2025 includes $1.5 billion to $2 billion of long-term debt financing and no equity financing.

    最後,我要指出的是,我們目前的 2025 年融資計畫包括 15 億至 20 億美元的長期債務融資,沒有股權融資。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Cheryl to talk more about our five-year capital plan, our recent acquisition activity and outlook and affordability. Cheryl?

    接下來,我將把它交給謝麗爾,更多地討論我們的五年資本計劃、我們最近的收購活動以及前景和承受能力。謝麗爾?

  • Cheryl Norton - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

    Cheryl Norton - Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

  • Thanks, David and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝大衛,大家早安。

  • On slide 15, I'll start with the discussion of our current long term capital plan. For 2025, we expect our investment spending level to be $3.3 billion. From 2025 to 2029, we expect to invest $17 billion to $18 billion, an increase of about $1 billion over our previous five-year plan. This level of spending reflects the result of our consistent risk-based project planning. Along with risk, customer affordability is a key variable in our analysis which I'll speak more about shortly. The increase in the current plan compared to last year is a combination of increased spending to meet compliance requirements for EPA's Lead & Copper Rule Improvements or LCRI and the rolling the plan forward a year.

    在投影片 15 上,我將首先討論我們目前的長期資本計畫。2025 年,我們預計投資支出水準為 33 億美元。從2025年到2029年,我們預計投資170億美元到180億美元,比之前的五年計畫增加約10億美元。這一支出水準反映了我們一貫的基於風險的專案規劃的結果。除了風險之外,客戶的承受能力也是我們分析中的關鍵變量,我將稍後詳細討論。與去年相比,當前計劃的增加是為了滿足 EPA 鉛和銅規則改進(LCRI)的合規要求而增加支出以及將該計劃向前推進一年的結果。

  • As you are aware, in October, the EPA issued the final LCRI which sets a deadline near the end of 2037 for lead replacement by water utility providers for assets under their control among other stipulations. American Water consistently meets water quality standards related to lead and copper rules across our footprint. And we are supportive of new or revised water quality standards such as LCRI. Removing the risk of lead service lines over time is absolutely the right thing to do for the health and safety of our customers.

    如您所知,EPA 於 10 月發布了最終的 LCRI,其中規定了自來水公司在 2037 年底前為其控制下的資產更換鉛的最後期限以及其他規定。美國水務公司在我們的足跡中始終符合與鉛和銅規定相關的水質標準。我們支持新的或修訂的水質標準,例如 LCRI。隨著時間的推移,消除領先服務線的風險絕對是為了我們客戶的健康和安全而做的正確的事情。

  • We are now expecting to spend about $1 billion over the next five years related to LCRI or about twice the rate of our recent annual spending and we are still planning to invest approximately $1 billion in capital to comply with EPA's PFOS rule. In total, looking out over the next decade, we expect to invest about $40 billion to $42 billion in our regulated systems and acquisitions, which is $5 billion higher than the previous 10-year plan. One of our key initiatives with this higher level of investment is the expansion of our infrastructure renewal and replacement program.

    目前,我們預計未來五年將在 LCRI 方面支出約 10 億美元,大約是我們最近年度支出的兩倍,我們仍計劃投資約 10 億美元資本來遵守 EPA 的 PFOS 規則。總的來說,展望未來十年,我們預計將在受監管的系統和收購方面投資約 400 億至 420 億美元,這比之前的 10 年計劃高出 50 億美元。我們的這項更高水準的投資的關鍵舉措之一是擴大我們的基礎設施更新和更換計劃。

  • I want to finish this slide by acknowledging that our teams have done a great job executing our accelerated capital investment plans these last few years. We have consistently met our capital deployment goal each year and we're on pace to do it again by spending $3.3 billion this year, which includes acquisition investments. These investments are crucial to continuing to deliver safe and clean water and ensure continued reliability of service to our customers.

    在結束這張投影片時,我想承認我們的團隊在過去幾年執行加速資本投資計畫方面做得非常出色。我們每年都始終如一地實現資本部署目標,今年我們將斥資 33 億美元(其中包括收購投資)再次實現這一目標。這些投資對於繼續提供安全清潔的水並確保為客戶提供持續可靠的服務至關重要。

  • On slide 16, I want to emphasize the timely capital recovery which for us covers about 75% of our capital investments. It's foundational to promoting consistently excellent customer service and affordability. Investing in needed infrastructure on a continuous basis drives consistency and reliability of our services and of water quality. It also enables us to mitigate the size of general rate increases for our customers which helps promote affordable monthly bills and by reducing regulatory lag, timely capital recovery allows us to more closely earn our allowed return and better deliver consistent earnings growth.

    在投影片 16 上,我想強調及時的資本回收,這對我們來說約占我們資本投資的 75%。它是促進始終如一的卓越客戶服務和經濟實惠的基礎。持續投資所需的基礎設施可以提高我們的服務和水質的一致性和可靠性。它還使我們能夠減輕客戶普遍利率上漲的規模,這有助於促進負擔得起的每月賬單,並通過減少監管滯後,及時的資本回收使我們能夠更接近地獲得允許的回報,並更好地實現持續的收益成長。

  • The pie chart on the right side of the page shows the breakdown of our capital spend by purpose over the next decade. While the vast majority of our capital is dedicated to basic replacement of aging pipes, we are also focused on fortifying our systems through resilient spending and preparing our systems for environmental compliance through investments in water quality. For example, we've recently invested $9 million in Sheridan, Indiana, to help solve the community's sewer overflow issues that have restricted the community from growing due to EPA non-compliance. And in Hopewell, Virginia, we constructed a 2.5-million-gallon storage tank to support proper water storage capacity. We have dozens of stories just like this that demonstrate the vital need for the capital investments we're making.

    頁面右邊的圓餅圖顯示了未來十年我們按用途劃分的資本支出明細。雖然我們的絕大多數資金都用於老化管道的基本更換,但我們也專注於透過彈性支出來強化我們的系統,並透過水質投資為我們的系統做好環境合規準備。例如,我們最近在印第安納州謝裡登投資了 900 萬美元,以幫助解決該社區因不遵守 EPA 規定而限制社區發展的下水道溢出問題。在維吉尼亞州霍普韋爾,我們建造了一個 250 萬加侖的儲水箱,以支援適當的儲水能力。我們有數十個這樣的故事,它們證明了我們正在進行的資本投資的迫切需求。

  • And as we approach the 50th anniversary of the Safe Drinking Water Act later this year, we know there is still much work to be done in our country and that our expertise in helping communities solve their drinking water issues will be needed for decades to come.

    今年晚些時候,隨著《安全飲用水法案》頒布 50 週年的臨近,我們知道我國仍有許多工作要做,而且未來幾十年仍需要我們在幫助社區解決飲用水問題方面的專業知識。

  • Turning to slide 17, you can see that we expect these capital investments in infrastructure and in acquisitions will grow regulated rate base at a long-term rate of 8% to 9%. Rate base growth, of course, will drive earnings growth. We believe the higher degree of visibility to our capital investment plan combined with the low-risk nature of the plan uniquely positions American Water in the utility sector and is fundamental to our investment thesis.

    轉向投影片 17,您可以看到,我們預計基礎設施和收購方面的這些資本投資將以 8% 至 9% 的長期成長率成長監管利率基礎。當然,利率基數成長將推動獲利成長。我們相信,我們的資本投資計劃具有較高的可見度,加上該計劃的低風險性質,使美國水務公司在公用事業領域擁有獨特的地位,也是我們投資理念的基礎。

  • Turning to slide 18 where I'll cover customer affordability. We remain very focused on balancing customer affordability and the magnitude of the necessary investments in our plans. As I mentioned, customer affordability is a key variable in our annual capital planning analysis. We once again believe that the average residential water bill across our footprint as a percentage of median household income will continue to be below 1% throughout our five-year plan. Another recent example of the affordability programs we offer is in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania American Water expanded its H2O Help to Others discount program to customers with an income of up to 200% of the federal poverty level, up from 150% of that level.

    轉到投影片 18,我將介紹客戶的承受能力。我們仍然非常注重平衡客戶的承受能力和我們計劃中必要投資的規模。正如我所提到的,客戶的承受能力是我們年度資本規劃分析中的關鍵變數。我們再次相信,在我們的五年計劃中,我們覆蓋範圍內的平均住宅水費佔家庭收入中位數的百分比將繼續低於 1%。我們提供的負擔能力計劃的另一個最新例子是在賓夕法尼亞州。賓州美國水務公司 (Pennsylvania American Water) 將 H2O Help to Others 折扣計劃擴大到收入達到聯邦貧窮線 200%(高於該水準的 150%)的客戶。

  • This change will expand discounted service to an additional 55,000 Pennsylvania American Water customers. We also expanded the H2O Help to Others grant program for customers up to 250% of the federal poverty level from 200%. Of note, as part of its acquisition of BASA, Pennsylvania American Water already committed to increase its shareholder contribution to the H2O Help to Others grant program by $3.5 million over five years, which will assist more customers through this important affordability program.

    這項變更將把折扣服務範圍擴大到另外 55,000 名賓州美國水務公司客戶。我們也將針對客戶的 H2O Help to Others 補助計畫從聯邦貧窮線的 200% 擴大到了 250%。值得注意的是,作為收購BASA 的一部分,Pennsylvania American Water 已承諾在五年內將其股東對H2O Help to Others 贈款計劃的捐款增加350 萬美元,這將透過這一重要的負擔能力計劃幫助更多客戶。

  • Turning to our discussion of growth through acquisitions, let me first say that I'm excited to lead our growing business development teams at the state and corporate level.

    談到我們透過收購實現成長的討論,我首先要說的是,我很高興能夠在州和企業層級領導我們不斷成長的業務開發團隊。

  • On slide 19, you'll see that we have successfully closed on six systems totaling $349 million through October 30, which added almost 50,000 new customers so far this year. Included in this total, as John mentioned earlier, is the big news in Pennsylvania from just a few days ago that we closed on the Butler Area Sewer Authority wastewater system acquisition for $230 million. We remain very confident in our Pennsylvania acquisition pipeline and our ability to grow there.

    在投影片 19 上,您將看到截至 10 月 30 日,我們已成功關閉了六個系統,總價值達 3.49 億美元,今年迄今已增加了近 50,000 名新客戶。正如約翰之前提到的,這個總數包括幾天前賓州發生的重大新聞,即我們以 2.3 億美元完成了對巴特勒地區下水道管理局廢水系統的收購。我們對賓州的收購管道以及在那裡發展的能力仍然充滿信心。

  • Looking ahead, we also continue to be well-positioned for strong growth through acquisitions across many states with 43,400 customer connections totaling $169 million under agreement as of yesterday. Two quick highlights there. We have received commission approval of the acquisition of the Silver Creek Indiana water system and expect to close on it very soon. And in Maryland, we received commission approval in our first fair market value acquisition in the state and we look forward to serving the former Severn Water Company customers.

    展望未來,截至昨天,我們也透過在多個州的收購,擁有 43,400 個客戶關係,總價值達 1.69 億美元,繼續為強勁成長做好準備。有兩個快速亮點。我們已獲得委員會批准收購印第安納州 Silver Creek 供水系統,預計很快就會完成。在馬裡蘭州,我們在該州的首次公平市場價值收購獲得了委員會批准,我們期待為前塞文水公司客戶提供服務。

  • As we've mentioned over the last 18 months to 24 months, we have invested more resources and added personnel to our business development teams and are starting to see that investment bear fruit with increased opportunities across our footprint. This expanded team along with a more focused process for deal origination is driving a larger pipeline of potential acquisitions now over 1.5 million connections compared to the previous pipeline of 1.3 million customers.

    正如我們在過去 18 個月到 24 個月中提到的,我們為業務開發團隊投入了更多資源並增加了人員,並且開始看到投資取得了成果,我們的業務範圍內的機會增加了。擴大的團隊以及更集中的交易發起流程正在推動更大的潛在收購管道,與先前的 130 萬客戶相比,現在的潛在收購管道已超過 150 萬個連結。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Susan for some closing thoughts. Susan?

    至此,我將把它轉交給蘇珊,讓她做一些總結性的思考。蘇珊?

  • M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Cheryl, and I'm happy to be back and clean up for us here today.

    謝謝,謝麗爾,我很高興今天能回來為我們打掃。

  • You've heard from John, David, and Cheryl a recap of our long-term strategy. And it should sound very consistent. Beyond our words though, we have a proven track record of execution on our plans including achieving our EPS guidance year after year. I fully expect 2025 to be another successful year demonstrating consistent execution of our plans.

    您已經聽到約翰、大衛和謝麗爾對我們長期策略的回顧。而且聽起來應該要非常一致。儘管如此,我們在執行計劃方面擁有良好的記錄,包括年復一年地實現每股收益指引。我完全期望 2025 年將是另一個成功的一年,展示我們的計劃的一致執行。

  • Slide 21 is a compilation of the unique competitive advantages that we have at American Water that make us stand out as a premium utility. I've been all -- on all sides of the regulated utility industry in the US throughout my 40-year career: gas, electric and now water and wastewater. I know very well that there are some other great companies in the utility industry, ones that can cite three, four or maybe more of these qualities on their own resume. But what makes American Water unique from all of the others though, in my opinion, is the collection of all of these attributes in a single investment opportunity.

    幻燈片 21 匯集了美國水務公司擁有的獨特競爭優勢,這些優勢使我們作為優質公用事業公司脫穎而出。在我 40 年的職業生涯中,我涉足了美國受監管公用事業行業的各個方面:天然氣、電力,現在是水和廢水處理行業。我非常清楚,公用事業行業還有一些其他偉大的公司,它們可以在自己的履歷中引用三個、四個甚至更多這些品質。但在我看來,美國水務公司與其他公司的獨特之處在於,它在一個投資機會中集合了所有這些屬性。

  • Let me be specific and call out just a few of these key attributes, American Water without any dispute is a top tier performer on earnings and dividend growth. We have a geographic and resulting regulatory diversity that is rivaled by few, that diversity reduces risk, period. And speaking of risk, our capital plan is low risk on a number of measures like decades of need and basic infrastructure renewal at the core of our plan. Our investment appeal based on our company's mission, values and these distinguishing fundamentals is compelling. Our mission is to provide safe, clean, reliable and affordable services to the customers we are privileged to serve and to those that we hope to serve in the future that today are in need of the services we deliver.

    讓我具體指出其中的一些關鍵屬性,毫無疑問,美國水務公司在獲利和股息成長方面是表現最好的公司。我們擁有很少有人能與地理和由此產生的監管多樣性相媲美,這種多樣性可以降低風險。說到風險,我們的資本計劃在許多措施上都是低風險的,例如數十年的需求和作為我們計劃核心的基本基礎設施更新。基於我們公司的使命、價值觀和這些獨特的基本面,我們的投資吸引力非常引人注目。我們的使命是為我們有幸服務的客戶以及我們希望在未來服務的現在需要我們提供服務的客戶提供安全、清潔、可靠和負擔得起的服務。

  • We can fulfill this mission and provide a fair return to our investors. Look, American Water has been doing this work since 1886. That's nearly 140 years. But there's much left to be done. Some may question and some do still today the sense of urgency that we exhibit as we execute this investment plan. The sense of urgency is driven by the tremendous need, simply put. We will continue to do this work and deliver the superior returns our investors expect. It is a privilege to lead the 6,500-member team that is committed to and focused on delivering solutions to our customers and you, our investors, make it possible for this important work to continue.

    我們能夠完成這項使命,並為我們的投資者提供公平的回報。看,美國水務公司自 1886 年以來一直在從事這項工作。那已經快140年了。但還有很多事情要做。有些人可能會質疑,有些人至今仍質疑我們在執行這項投資計畫時所表現出的緊迫感。簡而言之,緊迫感是由巨大的需求所驅動的。我們將繼續進行這項工作,並提供投資者期望的卓越回報。我很榮幸能夠領導這個由 6,500 名成員組成的團隊,該團隊致力於並專注於為我們的客戶和您(我們的投資者)提供解決方案,使這項重要工作得以繼續進行。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back to our operator to begin Q&A and take any questions you may have.

    然後,我會將其轉回給我們的接線員以開始問答並回答您可能有的任何問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Richard Sunderland, J.P. Morgan.

    (操作員說明)Richard Sunderland,J.P. Morgan。

  • Richard Sunderland - Analyst

    Richard Sunderland - Analyst

  • So I've been getting a lot of questions on the financing plan and hoping you can walk through the $1.5 billion equity increase versus the $1 billion CapEx increase. Are there any timing factors to the financing plan driving equity higher than the incremental CapEx? Like maybe capturing some of the years 6 to 10 equity in this current 5-year plan?

    因此,我收到了很多有關融資計劃的問題,希望您能詳細介紹 15 億美元的股本增加與 10 億美元的資本支出增加。融資計劃是否存在任何時機因素導致股本高於增量資本支出?就像在目前的 5 年計劃中獲取 6 至 10 年的部分股權一樣?

  • M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's a good question, Rich and obviously, we've seen a lot of commentary on that overnight and this morning as you all have been digesting the new plan here. I think it's as simple as a continued growing investment plan as you've noted. And our continued focus on the strong balance sheet. We take very seriously the strength of the balance sheet, and the metrics associated with that, and we've been very transparent on what those are and we'll continue to finance the plan, the growing plan to maintain those expectations.

    這是一個很好的問題,Rich,顯然,我們在昨晚和今天早上看到了很多關於這個問題的評論,因為你們都在這裡消化了新計劃。我認為這就像您提到的持續成長的投資計劃一樣簡單。我們持續關注強勁的資產負債表。我們非常重視資產負債表的實力以及與之相關的指標,我們對這些指標非常透明,我們將繼續為該計劃提供資金,這是一個不斷增長的計劃,以維持這些期望。

  • I think it's pretty simple to think about it in those terms, the timing I think is maybe what's tripping people up a bit. But I think you just need to think about the size of our plan, the long-term nature of our plan, the outlook that we provided from a long-term perspective here and our continued focus on that balance sheet. It's all just directly tied to those key objectives we have.

    我認為從這些角度來思考這個問題非常簡單,我認為時機可能會讓人有點困惑。但我認為你只需要考慮我們計劃的規模、我們計劃的長期性質、我們從長期角度提供的前景以及我們對資產負債表的持續關注。這一切都與我們的關鍵目標直接相關。

  • And David, John, anything to add from your perspective here?

    大衛、約翰,從你們的角度來看,還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • John Griffith - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Griffith - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • No, I think you've really covered it, Susan.

    不,我想你已經講得很清楚了,蘇珊。

  • David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Maybe I'll just add one comment, Rich, which is if we think about the $1 billion increase in our five year plan -- investment plan and keep in mind that even if we increased -- if we did not increase the five year plan at all, right, we would still intend to raise equity in the latter part of the new plan period, right? We are growing the company 8% to 9% rate base growth. We generate a lot of internal cash flow, we raise debt, but we'll always be raising equity periodically to fund what we consider to be a robust capital plan.

    是的。也許我會添加一條評論,Rich,那就是如果我們考慮一下我們的五年計劃——投資計劃——增加 10 億美元,並記住,即使我們增加——如果我們不增加五年計劃無論如何,我們仍然打算在新計劃期的後半段籌集股本,對嗎?我們公司的基礎成長率為 8% 至 9%。我們產生大量的內部現金流,我們舉債,但我們始終會定期籌集股本,為我們認為穩健的資本計劃提供資金。

  • So I'd say the $1 billion increase in the five-year plan incrementally increased the amount of equity that we will be raising, but we will always be in the business of periodically raising equity.

    因此,我想說,五年計畫中增加的 10 億美元逐漸增加了我們將籌集的股本金額,但我們將始終從事定期籌集股本的業務。

  • Richard Sunderland^ And maybe I'll pick up on that last point and just unpack that a little bit more. I think if you look at last year's update and then this year's update, on the kind of full balance of sources, the cash flow guidance uptick last year was larger than the uptick this year, maybe $2 billion versus $1 billion. I'm curious if you could just unpack a little bit more of what's going on there in terms of your assumptions and expectations embedded in that? Are there any factors we should think about, the roll forward last year versus the roll forward this year purely on the cash flow guidance?

    理查德·桑德蘭 (Richard Sunderland)^ 也許我會繼續討論最後一點,然後再稍微解釋一下。我認為,如果你看看去年的更新和今年的更新,就來源的完全平衡而言,去年現金流量指導的上升幅度大於今年的上升幅度,可能是 20 億美元對 10 億美元。我很好奇你能否根據你的假設和期望來解釋那裡發生的事情?去年的展期與今年純粹基於現金流量指導的展期相比,我們是否應該考慮任何因素?

  • John Griffith - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Griffith - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • I think one factor that we have incorporated in here would be related to alternative minimum tax as a driver where we fully expect to be a cash taxpayer starting in 2025.

    我認為我們在這裡納入的一個因素與替代性最低稅有關,作為驅動因素,我們完全期望從 2025 年開始成為現金納稅人。

  • David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • And Rich, I would just add to that yeah, as you recall, Rich, when we first accelerated our CapEx plan back in 2021, what we found is that we are investing even more capital than that accelerated plan. And so that the enhanced capital investment that we're seeing is generating additional internal cash flow.

    Rich,我想補充一點,是的,Rich,當我們在 2021 年首次加速我們的資本支出計劃時,我們發現我們投資的資本甚至比加速計劃還要多。因此,我們看到的資本投資的增加正在產生額外的內部現金流。

  • Richard Sunderland - Analyst

    Richard Sunderland - Analyst

  • Perfect, very helpful commentary. Thank you. I'll leave it there.

    完美,非常有幫助的評論。謝謝。我會把它留在那裡。

  • M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Rich.

    謝謝,里奇。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Durgesh Chopra, Evercore ISI.

    杜爾格甚喬普拉 (Durgesh Chopra),Evercore ISI。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

    Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

  • Hey, team. Good morning. David, congrats --

    嘿,團隊。早安.大衛,恭喜你--

  • David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

    Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

  • And look forward -- good morning, Susan. Nice job batting the closing remarks here and David, congrats and look forward to working with you.

    展望未來-早安,蘇珊。幹得好,大衛,恭喜並期待與您合作。

  • So --

    所以--

  • David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

    Durgesh Chopra - Analyst

  • So just, yes, absolutely. So hey, maybe just guys, give your perspective on the strategy in Pennsylvania. As you kind of roll this plan forward, how are you thinking about CapEx in the state versus previous assumptions? And then the rate case filing strategy in light of the [order], just any color you can offer there would be great. Thank you.

    所以只是,是的,絕對是。所以嘿,也許只是夥計們,請發表一下你們對賓州策略的看法。當您推進該計劃時,與先前的假設相比,您如何看待該州的資本支出?然後根據[訂單]制定費率案件歸檔策略,您可以提供的任何顏色都會很棒。謝謝。

  • M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Rich, probably not a lot to add from our discussion last quarter. As we've continued to emphasize, our capital planning process is really risk based. We're really looking at where the need is the greatest and we'll allocate capital first according to that need. And then to the extent, there are opportunities to continue to enhance service in those areas, other areas, we'll look at those opportunities. I think that process has continued, and I think you'll continue to see us make significant investment in Pennsylvania.

    是的。豐富,我們上個季度的討論可能沒有太多可補充的。正如我們不斷強調的那樣,我們的資本規劃流程確實是基於風險的。我們真正關注的是哪裡的需求最大,我們將首先根據該需求分配資金。然後,在某種程度上,有機會繼續加強這些領域和其他領域的服務,我們將專注於這些機會。我認為這個過程仍在繼續,我認為您將繼續看到我們在賓州進行重大投資。

  • So no, no change there. And I'd also say, and again, we talked about this last quarter as it relates to our rate case outcome there, while the ROE might have been lower than we had hoped for, we certainly have that built in this plan and you can see us continue to emphasize strong growth rates year over year. Our 2025 expected growth at 8%, all fully is reflected in our plan. So we're moving forward.

    所以不,沒有改變。我還想說,我們在上個季度討論過這一點,因為它與我們在那裡的利率案例結果有關,雖然淨資產收益率可能低於我們的預期,但我們當然已經在這個計劃中建立了這一點,你可以我們繼續強調逐年強勁的成長率。我們2025年預計成長8%,這一切都充分體現在我們的計畫中。所以我們正在前進。

  • Durgesh Chopra^ Yeah, that's helpful, Susan. Thank you. And then David, maybe I could just quickly follow up. You talked about the AMT and being a full cash taxpayer in 2025. Could you help us with what like dollar amount of cash payments are you expecting in 2025 and going forward?

    Durgesh Chopra^ 是的,這很有幫助,蘇珊。謝謝。然後大衛,也許我可以快速跟進。您談到了 AMT 以及 2025 年成為全額現金納稅人。您能否協助我們了解您預計 2025 年及以後的現金支付金額為何?

  • David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    David Bowler - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I think you can think of it in the range of $100 million plus or minus a year and cash taxes paid as part of a AMT.

    是的。我認為您可以將其想像為每年加減 1 億美元以及作為 AMT 一部分支付的現金稅。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Angie Storozynski, Seaport.

    (操作員指示)Angie Storozynski,海港。

  • Angie Storozynski - Analyst

    Angie Storozynski - Analyst

  • So just one somewhat of a random question. So I'm just wondering if you guys are making any plans, on -- any changes on how you procure electricity. I mean I'm looking at the states where you operate, it seems like you will be exposed to quite an inflation in the cost of electricity. And so are you trying to maybe lock in some of those prices ahead of time? And it's -- are you concerned about, for example, the affordability argument, when the electricity prices were to go meaningfully up.

    這只是一個隨機問題。所以我只是想知道你們是否正在製定任何計劃,對如何獲取電力進行任何改變。我的意思是,我正在研究你們經營業務的州,看來你們將面臨電力成本大幅上漲的風險。那麼您是否想提前鎖定其中一些價格?例如,當電價大幅上漲時,您是否擔心負擔能力的爭論。

  • M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, good question. And we might have touched on this a little bit, I think last quarter, but certainly it's a major focus for us. Electricity costs are a big cost, associated with the work that we do. And to that end, we have multiple long-term contracts already in place, I think some as far out as 2029. So we have this risk, I'd say fairly well mitigated through our current contracting strategy.

    是的,好問題。我想上個季度我們可能已經觸及了這一點,但這無疑是我們的主要關注點。電力成本是一項很大的成本,與我們所做的工作有關。為此,我們已經簽訂了多份長期合同,我認為其中一些合約的期限最長可達 2029 年。因此,我想說,透過我們目前的承包策略,我們可以很好地緩解這種風險。

  • Angie Storozynski - Analyst

    Angie Storozynski - Analyst

  • Changing topics. So you've obviously extended your growth rate. I think we're all looking at your earnings power beyond '26, right, when you lose the benefit of interest income. So I mean what fills up that $0.10? Is it that you sort of step up the level of spending, is it that you're hopeful for additional municipal M&A? I'm just wondering again how you couldn't bridge the gap.

    改變話題。所以你顯然已經提高了成長率。我認為我們都在關注 26 年後你的獲利能力,對吧,當你失去利息收入的好處時。那麼我的意思是用什麼來填充這 0.10 美元呢?您是否提高了支出水平,是否希望進行更多的市政併購?我只是再次想知道你怎麼無法彌補差距。

  • M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Angie, we certainly have addressed this I think a couple of times. I'll ask John to sort of reiterate what our view is here.

    是的。安吉,我想我們確實已經解決過這個問題好幾次了。我會請約翰重申我們的觀點。

  • John Griffith - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    John Griffith - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • If you recall, back in 2021, when we put the note into place, we accelerated our capital plan at that point in time, increasing the five-year plan by a couple of billion dollars at that point. And in the context of another question earlier, what we found is we've not only achieved that I would say but, but more. And so when you -- and we're always injecting equity into our operating companies to generate incremental regulated earnings. And that's really what's driving our ability to replace the interest income from the note.

    如果你還記得,早在 2021 年,當我們制定票據時,我們當時就加速了我們的資本計劃,當時將五年計劃增加了數十億美元。在之前的另一個問題中,我們發現我們不僅實現了我想說的目標,而且還取得了更多成就。因此,當您和我們總是向我們的營運公司注入股權以產生增量的監管收益時。這確實是推動我們替代票據利息收入的能力的原因。

  • If you think about the interest income from the note, a lot of people look at it on an incremental basis and say, okay, gee, there's effectively $0.20 of earnings going away. And that's from the $720 million note, it's 7% interest that we built into our 7% to 9% guidance forecast back in 2021. What people need to remember is we are bringing in $795 million which is the original $720 million-plus the earn out payment that was rolled into the note. And if you think about that $795 million, as you know, that's avoiding incremental capital issuance, whether it's equity or debt.

    如果你考慮一下票據的利息收入,很多人都會以增量的方式看待它,然後說,好吧,天哪,實際上有 0.20 美元的收入消失了。這是來自 7.2 億美元的票據,我們將 7% 的利息納入 2021 年 7% 至 9% 的指導預測中。人們需要記住的是,我們帶來了 7.95 億美元,這是最初的 7.2 億美元,加上已計入票據的獲利付款。如果您考慮這 7.95 億美元,您就會知道,這避免了增量資本發行,無論是股權還是債務。

  • So if you're picking -- if you assume that we're avoiding long term debt with that $795 million, pick a long term interest rate, 5.5%, whatever you want to make up as a long term debt interest rate, that result -- that offset that $0.20, not all of it, but it gets, you call it $0.17 or so. And we're really only filling a kind of a $0.03 hole there. Nothing. And so people kind of can't forget about the right side of the page that yes, the interest income is going away, but we do have capital that we're avoiding incremental debt with.

    因此,如果你選擇——如果你假設我們用這 7.95 億美元來避免長期債務,選擇一個長期利率,5.5%,無論你想用什麼作為長期債務利率,結果就是-- 這抵消了0.20 美元,不是全部,但它得到了,你稱之為0.17 美元左右。我們實際上只是填補了 0.03 美元的漏洞。沒有什麼。因此,人們不能忘記頁面的右側,是的,利息收入正在消失,但我們確實有資本來避免增量債務。

  • I would also note, Angie, that it's good for people to keep in mind that the final maturity date on the note is December 2026. But the borrower can call the note as of December 2025. And so it, we'll see when the note gets taken out. But that's something just to we could see it earlier than December 2026.

    安吉,我還想指出的是,人們最好記住票據上的最終到期日是 2026 年 12 月。但藉款人可以從 2025 年 12 月起贖回該票據。所以,我們會看到紙條何時被取出。但這只是我們可以在 2026 年 12 月之前看到的事情。

  • Angie Storozynski - Analyst

    Angie Storozynski - Analyst

  • And then lastly on the frequency of rate cases, so again, we're trying to sort of understand what happened with the last rate case in Pennsylvania and obviously some of it was the frequency of the rate case filings. I'm just wondering, one could argue that you're filing rate case more often, not just in Pennsylvania, but in other states because you really have to hit your allowed ROE. So the realized ROE has to be close -- as close as possible to be allowed. So I mean how do you see it in your plan? I mean are you assuming that in every jurisdiction, you basically hit that allowed ROE and that's what drives your earnings growth? What if there is some, either slippage in those rate cases or the negative outcome of some of them?

    最後,關於費率案件的頻率,我們再次試圖了解賓州最後一個費率案件發生的情況,顯然其中一些是費率案件提交的頻率。我只是想知道,有人可能會說你提交費率案件的頻率更高,不僅在賓夕法尼亞州,而且在其他州,因為你確實必須達到允許的 ROE。因此,實現的 ROE 必須接近——盡可能接近。所以我的意思是你在你的計劃中如何看待它?我的意思是,您是否假設在每個司法管轄區,您基本上都達到了允許的股本回報率,這就是推動您獲利成長的因素?如果出現一些情況,要么是這些利率案例出現滑點,要么是其中一些案例產生了負面結果,該怎麼辦?

  • M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    M. Susan Hardwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Angie, on the rate case strategy and I think we've been trying to make this point for a couple of years now, what really drives our rate case cycling is the need and the investment. We just continue to believe there is such tremendous need to do the work that we're doing that we've accelerated our capital investment program accordingly. And the more investment we make, the greater the growth in the rate base and the need for timely recovery.

    是的。安吉,關於利率案例策略,我認為我們幾年來一直在努力闡明這一點,真正推動我們的利率案例循環的是需求和投資。我們仍然相信,我們正在做的工作有如此巨大的需求,因此我們相應地加快了我們的資本投資計劃。我們投入的資金越多,利率基數的成長就越大,及時復甦的必要性就越大。

  • Now we have mechanisms and other approaches to get essentially 75% of that investment recovered what we would call sort of more timely through periodic adjustments, but we still have the remaining investment that is subject to traditional regulatory process and the need to get timely recovery of that investment along with the size of the investment is what drives that cycling. So our -- we don't build a rate case cycle just to hit a rate of return; we build it because that's how we're investing and that's what the regulatory process calls for.

    現在,我們有機制和其他方法,可以透過定期調整,使基本上 75% 的投資得到我們所說的更及時的回收,但我們仍然有剩餘的投資,需要遵守傳統的監管流程,並且需要及時回收這種投資以及投資規模是推動這種循環的因素。因此,我們建立利率案例週期不僅僅是為了達到報酬率;我們建立它是因為這就是我們的投資方式,也是監管程序所要求的。

  • So that's really what's behind the strategy. It's the need.

    這就是該戰略背後的真正原因。這是需要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question and answer session and American Water's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    我們的問答環節和美國水務公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。

  • Editor

    Editor

  • Portions of this transcript marked (technical difficulty) indicate audio problems. The missing text will be supplied if a replay becomes available.

    此文字記錄中標記為(技術難度)的部分錶示存在音訊問題。如果可以重播,將提供缺少的文字。