Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) 2006 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Armstrong World Industries earnings release conference call.

[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]

And I would now like to turn the conference over to our host Ms. Beth Riley. Please go ahead.

Thanks, good evening, and welcome to Armstrong's third quarter conference call.

Please note that members of of the media have been invited to listen to this call and the call is being broadcast live on our website at www.Armstrong .com. As Rochelle mentioned I'm Beth Riley, Director of Investor Relations for Armstrong.

I'm pleased to have our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mike Lockhart,and our Chief Financial Officer, Nick Grasberger joining me for this call. Mike and Nick will provide detail on the quarter's operational and financial performance and on our outlook for the fourth quarter. After these remarks, we will ask for questions.

There is lots of interest in Armstrong following our recent emergence from chapter 11. The focus of this call is our performance in the third quarter and our outlook for the fourth quarter.

Please restrict your questions to those subjects. We will be conducting investor meetings in mid-November and will be talking about the Company in greater detail at that time. In addition, I would like to emphasize this is an Armstrong World Industry call.

All currently available information on Armstrong Holdings is included in our third quarter 10Q. In particular, you will find information about AHI, post October 2nd, on page 17 under matters concerning AHI. No further information or explanation is available, callers will be referred to the 10-Q.

In keeping with SEC requirements, I advise that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. For a more detailed discussions of the risks and uncertainties that may affect Armstrong World Industries, please review the reports we have filed with the SEC, including the 10Q filed today.

In addition, we will be referring to non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of SEC Regulation G. A reconciliation of the differences between these measures with the most directly comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP is included in today's press release which is available on our website.

And now I will turn it over to Mike.

Thanks for joining our inaugural earnings call.

Armstrong World Industries emerged from bankruptcy on October 2nd, and we're pleased to have emerged with strengthened businesses and a relatively conservative capital structure. The Armstrong that emerged from bankruptcy is very different from the Armstrong of the year 2000. Let me outline some of the important differences for you.

Throughout much of its history, Armstrong was a residential flooring company. Starting with linoleum in 1908, and switching to vinyl in the '60s and '70s, Armstrong's foundation was the residential flooring business. In its peak earnings year, 1999, residential vinyl floors was our most profitable business.

Today the most profitable business is Armstrong building products which makes and sells ceilings and glue. Our next most profitable business is wood flooring.

We still make and sell vinyl floors, and we make money at it. But changing consumer preferences, high oil prices, and a difficult industry structure have combined to make vinyl floors far less important to our financial health.

In today's Armstrong, commercial businesses account for more than half of our sales, and nearly two thirds of of our income. Within our commercial businesses, about 70% of our sales are to renovation projects. Operating margins for the new and renovation segments in commercial are roughly equal.

Residential sales are about evenly split between new and renovation segments. Renovation accounts for about 60% of the residential operating income. To give you an idea of the break-out of sales by business segment, the North American portion of resilient flooring is 75% residential, and 25% commercial.

The international portion of resilient flooring, the global building products business, and our ceilings segment, the textural and sports flooring segments, are over 90% commercial. Our wood flooring and cabinet segments are primarily North American, and residential. With wood selling slightly more than half of its sales into new residential and cabinets more than 70% into new residential.

We used our time in bankruptcy to restructure the Company in response to the changes prospects of the residential vinyl flooring business. Declining consumer demand for vinyl made the market far more competitive. We had to dramatically improve the visuals we offered our customers to ensure we won our share of what business there was.

We also reduced capacity in the vinyl business. Lowering unit costs to deal with the lower price realization. We reduced the SG&A costs of our resilient businesses around the world, and in North America, we allocated some of this SG&A savings to increased marketing dollars to support the growing wood and laminate businesses.

In our wood businesses, we invested to significantly improve the quality of our products, and to rationalize production capacity. Adding capacity where needed, and closing capacity where possible. We closed two engineered plants, and one solid wood plant, to improve our capacity utilization and manufacturing costs.

We integrated the wood business into our North American flooring business which reduced our SG&A costs. In the ceilings and glue businesses, we continued the very successful strategy of having the best new products offering great quality and extraordinary customer service around the world.

With the recovery of the commercial business in the U.S., we've seen good profit performance from this business. In all, we closed eight plants and reduced our work force by nearly 10%.

Since 2003, we have spent $170 million on restructuring. Less than half of that cash. And we will have annual cash savings of $100 million in 2007. Without these changes, Armstrong would be a very different company today.

Our restructuring efforts have helped us deliver good third quarter operating income growth on modest growth in sales. Added to the strong performance in the first two quarters of 2006, our third quarter results contribute to year to date operating income growth of more than 50% compared to 2005.

Our performance varied significantly by segment. Now, we don't disclose operating performance down to a geographic level, but I will give you some directional comments about our performance by segment by geography.

In North America resilient, with its high exposure to residential markets we had declining sales. Lower volume combined with higher raw material costs and no ability to recover through price increases reduced operating income.

These negative pressures more than offset significant improvements and manufacturing costs resulting from closing the Lancaster plant, and reduced promotional spending. European resilient sales declined modestly as the German market continues to be soft. Despite lower sales, operating income was flat.

The European business both resilient and textiles has defied several attempts to restructure The situation has improved this year as a result of cost reductions and significant new product introductions in '05 and '06.

We do have a plan to restore Europe to profitability. The European flooring industry is in transition, however, and we will be open to any opportunities that may arise from that transition which would allow us to accelerate the improvement in these businesses.

Building products, our ceilings business, continues to do well. High capacity utilization in the U.S. industry has allowed us to increase prices and we continue to improve our product mix. Wave, our joint venture with Worthington Industries, to produce suspension systems which we call grid, performed well.

Wave is a model for how joint ventures are supposed to work. Armstrong brings its market expertise and market access and Worthington contributes its knowledge of the steel market and its manufacturing know-how. The result is a very successful grid business.

For wood flooring, sales fell as the decline in the U.S. housing market began to impact our sales in September. Lower sales combined with increased lumber prices which were not recovered in price and with stepped up promotional spending to significantly reduce operating income for the quarter.

We feel good about our sales relative to competition. Our solid flooring unit volume was down less than 3% for the quarter. The market as measured by NOFMA, the National Oak Flooring Manufacturer's Association, fell 15% in the quarter.

Our cabinets business improved over prior year. We fixed the manufacturing problems we had last year, improving customer service dramatically.

We broadened our product line and have improved pricing. Our year-over-year operating profits are also helped by the absence of significant consulting spending we incurred in 2005. Cabinet orders have not yet been materially impacted by the declines in housing starts, but this cannot last forever.

Asia, which is roughly evenly split between floors and ceilings, continues to perform well in growing markets, particularly Australia, China, and India. In raw materials, our top three purchases are hardwood lumber, oil-derived materials, mostly PVC and plasticizers and natural gas. We spend roughly $160 to $180 million per year each on lumber and oil derivatives and about $60 million on natural gas.

Key factors when thinking about these materials are first of all, the hardwood industry is very different from the softwood industry. Most hardwood comes from relatively small stands of trees, less than 50 acres. The revenue to sellers of logs is a function of the mix of the lumber. A value grade of lumber is FAS which is used to manufacture furniture.

The migration of furniture manufacturing to low cost countries has reduced demand for FAS. Timber owners and saw mills have the choice between keeping volume up and driving FAS prices down, or reducing logging, reducing volume, to support the FAS price. They've chosen to lower volume, and lower volume means higher prices for flooring grade lumber.

While oil prices impact the cost of PVC's and plasticizers, there are a number of other factors that can cause their price to significantly diverge from the trends in the oil prices. Capacity utilization in the PVC and plasticizers industries is important as is capacity utilization in the feed stock industries.

We hedge our natural gas consumption out more than a year. This reduces the volatility of our spending over time and will give us the market price for gas plus a small premium for hedging. For the next several quarters, however, our cost of natural gas will not reflect the price declines that have occurred for natural gas in the United States.

For the remainder of 2006, and into 2007, the decline in U.S. housing starts will continue to reduce volumes in our businesses exposed to the residential market. Our sales generally lag starts by about five to six months. This pressure is aggravated in the short term by channel customers reducing their inventory levels.

We anticipate continued growth in the commercial business. Over the last several quarters, we benefited from the cost reductions we've made and we've achieved reasonable sales growth for our product--for our markets, through product innovation and targeting growing segments.

We expect to continue to grow the business by providing our customers with innovative products and services, consistently high quality, and dependable customer service. We don't expect acquisitions to play a significant role in the future growth of Armstrong.

We would hope, however, that we will have the opportunity to accelerate the growth of high growth segments through acquisition as we did this year. We will continue to emphasize the opportunities for growth within our portfolio, including premium wood, laminates, architectural specialties, and ceilings for Asian markets.

I will now turn the call over to Nick for a more detailed discussion of the numbers.

Thank you, Mike, and good evening.

I will first review our financial results for the September quarter and the first nine months of 2006 before turning to a discussion of our post-emergence capital structure and the impact of fresh start accounting. Finally I will provide an estimate of operating income for the December quarter.

The figures I will discuss have been adjusted for one time benefits and costs to provide a more meaningful comparison of operational performance. Please refer to our press release for reconciliations from adjusted to GAAP measures.

Okay, just a few summary level comments in our performance. Overall, we are satisfied the Company delivered 27% earnings growth in the September quarter versus last year in the midst of a challenging U.S. housing market. On a consolidated basis, higher selling prices more than offset raw material and energy inflation, and our product mix was strong.

On the cost side, we reduced both fixed and variable manufacturing costs, year-over-year, and held growth and SG&A costs well below the rate of inflation. These results together with the continued strong performance from our Wave joint venture lessened the impact of the volume decline in our U.S. residential product categories.

To the first nine months of 2006, operating income was more than 50% above last year. Although higher selling prices offset only about 70% of raw material inflation, volume growth improved product mix, and lower manufacturing costs boosted our manufacturing margin. SG&A costs declined through nine months and Wave produced record earnings.

Our budgeting process last year emphasized improving our operating margin and through nine months operating margin has improved about 250 basis points. Let's go a bit deep into the results for the September quarter. Consolidated sales increased 4% to 974 million. The sales increase included organic growth of 2%, and a 2% benefit from foreign exchange.

Price and selling mix each contributed about 200 basis points to sales growth, while unit volumes declined about 200 basis points. Gross profit margin improved 30 basis points to 23.4%. The gross margin in the U.S. flooring businesses declined while margins in the other businesses generally improved.

SG&A expenses decreased $2 million to $160 million for the quarter. On a constant currency basis, SG&A expenses were up slightly as increased promotional spending offset cost reductions in core administrative expenses. In particular, wood flooring increased promotional spending related to merchandising investments.

Equity earnings primarily from our Wave joint venture were $14 million compared to $10 million last year. We apply the equity method of accounting to our 50% interest in Wave. Dividends are paid from Wave to Armstrong and Worthington Industries on a quarterly basis.

Operating income was $83 million, up 27%. The corresponding operating margin was 8.5%, up 150 basis points versus last year. Income tax expense was $24.5 million, compared to $21.1 million, for an effective tax rate of 38.5%, compared to 31.4% for 2005.

The primary reason for the higher effective tax rate was an increase in non-deductible bankruptcy reorganization fees, partially offset by the finalization of tax benefits related to a 2005 subsidiary capital restructuring.

Free operating cash flow was $15 million for the quarter. The relatively low level of cash generation reflects increased capital expenditures and contributions to underfunded foreign pension plans and the Armstrong Foundation. Working capital levels were somewhat improved versus June 30th, but mostly unchanged from a year ago and we expect for the full year, free operating cash flow should be around $100 million.

Turning to our reported business segments, in all comparisons in sales and operating income will be in constant currency, first of all, resilient flooring, where sales declined in both North America and Europe on lower vinyl volumes. In North America, vinyl sales declined due to the weak housing market, and were only partially offset by continued growth in laminate.

Lower laminate pricing due to excess industry capacity also reduced sales. European sales reflected continued soft markets, partially offset by improved price and product mix.

In the September quarter, resilient sales were down 4%. North America declined 5%. Europe decreased 3%. And the Pacific Rim grew 11%. Operating income for the resilient segment was down 24% and the operating margin decreased 40 basis points to 1.5%.

The weak U.S. housing market had a more pronounced impact on our wood flooring business. In a reversal of the 8% volume growth realized through the June quarter, the volumes of both engineered and solid products declined.

In the third quarter, wood sales were down 1%. Operating income fell 36% versus last year with the operating margin declining 400 basis points to 7.6%. Lower sales, higher lumber prices and increased promotional spending pushed the results lower.

Sales in the textiles and sports flooring segment grew 3% on the strength of broad loom carpet and carpet tiles. Sales growth was the primary driver of 24% growth in operating income with the operating margin improving 90 basis points to 4.9%. [Flooring] products delivered double digit increases in sales across all geographies. In North America price and mix drove sales growth.

Year-over-year volume growth moderated in the third quarter, as comparisons became more difficult. In Europe, increased sales in metal ceilings and improved price and product mix offset volume declines in mineral fiber across weak western European markets.

In the September quarter, building products grew 12%. North America increased 11%. European sales were up 12%. And Pacific Rim grew 14%. Operating income increased 37% in building products driven by the double digit sales growth and strong results from Wave. The operating margin improved 380 basis points to 19.6%.

The cabinets business continued to grow sales as the enhanced product line and refocused sales and marketing efforts resulted in improved price and mix. These benefits more than offset volume declines related to the soft housing market.

In the third quarter, cabinet sales were up 6%. Higher sales were of significant improvement in operating margin from a slight operating loss in the prior year. Operating margins improved to 6.3%.

Let's spend a few minutes on the opening balance sheet and the impact of fresh start accounting before we discuss our earnings guidance for the December quarter. As you are likely aware fresh start accounting requires updating all balance sheet accounts to fair market value in a manner consistent with purchase accounting applied to business combinations.

Our reorganization value determined by a third party appraisal firm, will be allocated to assets based upon their fair value with any unallocated value reported as goodwill. The reorganization value is also used to determine the opening book value of equity. We are currently working with American Appraisal and our auditors KPMG, to finalize the application of fresh start accounting. We expect asset values to increase, leading to higher depreciation and amortization in the future.

Current estimates indicate the book value of equity to be between 1.9 and 2.1 billion. This includes the value of a significant net operating loss carry-forward, created by the funding of the asbestos trust, net of debt cancellation income. The resulting capital structure is healthy, with debt to capital at about 30%, and debt divided by latest 12 months EBITDA of about two times.

The gross value of the NOL is expected to be $500 to $600 million. The present value of the NOL is a function of future earnings and could be impacted by a change of control in Armstrong. The profile of the buyer would determine whether the NOL value is higher or lower than assumed in the opening balance sheet.

As noted in our release, we are limiting our initial guidance to operating income for the fourth quarter, on both a pre-fresh start basis and a post-fresh start basis. Our earnings per share will not be comparable to prior periods for reasons beyond the impact of fresh start accounting.

First, we will begin recording interest expense on our new debt. We expect interest expense to be about $15 million for the quarter, compared to just a few million last year. Second, the number of outstanding shares is increased about 40% from their pre-emergence figure, and finally, our tax rate will be different from our rate in prior periods.

Our normalized tax rate going forward should be in the 43% to 44% range. The adoption of fresh start accounting will cause several non-cash lines of the P&L to change significantly. It will also result in several one-time charges that will distort comparisons.

Therefore, an estimate of pre-fresh start operating income adjusted for unusual items is the best indicator of operating trends and performance. We are estimating this figure to be $37 to $42 million in the December quarter, which is 12% to 27% above the comparable figure of $33 million in the fourth quarter of 2005. For the full year, operating income on this basis should be $245 to $250 million, about 50% higher than 2005.

Our reported December quarter results will be quite different from this guidance, so I will preview the principle reconciling items. The net impact of fresh start accounting will be an estimated $4 million reduction in earnings in the fourth quarter although cash flow will be unaffected. There are three components to the fresh start adjustments.

Number one, first, we have--we expect to have increased depreciation and amortization expense relative to prior periods. Included in our fourth quarter guidance is an estimate of an additional $5 million from depreciation and $3 million from amortization.

Second, we anticipate expenses associated with the pension and certain other benefit plans to be $6 million lower. The full amount of net unrecognized losses associated with these plans will be recorded on the opening balance sheet and will therefore not be amortized in future periods.

And finally, the re-evaluation of our investment in Wave will result in an additional $2 million of depreciation and amortization. This will be reflected in the equity from affiliates account. These items collectively reduce our adjusted operating income from $37 to $42 million on a pre-fresh start basis, to $33 to $38 million on a post-fresh start basis.

In addition, the fourth quarter will include some extraordinary expenses related to emergence and the adoption of fresh start accounting. These items are distinct from the items just noted since their impact is temporary.

First, finished goods inventory is typically recorded at the lower of cost or market. Fresh start accounting requires finished goods inventory as of emergence to be adjusted to a value reflecting an estimated sales price less a reasonable profit allowance for the selling effort. Since this adjustment referred to as manufactured profit on inventory will result in an increased inventory balance we will incur a higher cost of goods sold as we sell this inventory.

We estimate the impact to be $36 million in the December quarter. We do not expect any impact in 2007 as the inventory on hand as of emergence should be sold in the fourth quarter. The second adjustment is for approximately $5 million in Chapter 11 related fees for legal and financial advisors. These costs had been reported below the operating income line during Chapter 11 but will be reported in SG&A in the future periods. There may be a moderate amount of such fees reported in the first quarter or two in 2007 as well.

These items will further reduce operating income for the December quarter by about $40 million. Therefore, we expect reported operating income to be a loss of $3 to $8 million. Concerning 2007, we plan to provide our outlook when we announce December quarter results in late February or early March.

I will now turn the call back to Mike.

Before we start the Q&A, there's a couple of things that we anticipate people will ask about that we want to see if we can pre-empt. The first one is, we would expect there are going to be questions relating to the Asbestos Personal Injury Trust that is our largest shareholder. As you would expect, we cannot speak on their behalf.

The second thing is that we will say, like most people you follow, I'm sure, that we won't answer questions about M&A activity by us or with respect to us.

And with that we'll open the line to questions.

[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]

The first question comes from the line of George Jackels of Bishop Rosin and Company. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. Congratulations on coming out of bankruptcy. The question I want to address to you is simply when will we be able to look at a fresh start accounting balance sheet?

The fresh start accounting balance sheet, George, will not be available until we file our 10K with the SEC, which is likely to be in late February, or early March.

So in other words, we will have to wait until about four or five months?

That is correct.

Well, the thing is, could a company put out some guidance as to what basically it might appear--I mean we could do our own calculation, but--

Well, I think we mentioned earlier, if you just look at the capital structure, we will have debt of about $800 million, a little more, a little less, perhaps, and the book equity on the opening balance sheet, we expect to be between $1.9 and $2.1 billion.

Right. Okay.

That's the capital structure.

So we can fill in the numbers in the balance sheet.

We also expect --talk about the depreciation effect.

Yes.

And we will also be stepping up fixed assets by between $100 and $200 million, and on that higher basis, we will then, as I had also noted, have higher depreciation going forward.

Good. Okay. Once again, congratulations.

Thank you.

Okay. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ryan Watson of Stanfield. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks. A couple of questions.

Based on your--on the calculations for EBITDA, CapEx, interest, it looks like you are going to be generating a sizable free cash flow and I know on your bank call, you had spoken about maintaining a conservative balance sheet, but outside of that you can speak a little bit to how you intend to use that free cash?

Well, short term, we will pay down debt. We have a capital structure that is offloading, so we would pay--we would pay that down. We said that the things that we were not--we don't have lots of acquisitions that-- whether we want to do it in the sense of--we're not a mask or somebody who says look, I am going to get half my growth through acquisitions.

There will be things that come available as this were, as we go through the travails of this downturn in residential housing, so there are some things we would like to look at, we would need cash for that.

The second thing is that we currently source a couple of product lines from China that we would look at building a plant in Mexico to do, like the--we would like to have a flatbed press roll style plant in Mexico and a luxury vinyl tile plant, so we--short term, we think we have uses for the cash. We won't be stuck with accumulating lots of cash.

Okay, and can you just go again through--well, briefly through the number, I believe you said operating income--did you say reported or actual was going to be 245 to 250? I didn't catch that.

The 245 to 250 is the pre-fresh start accounting, operating income figure, adjusted for some extraordinary items. And on that basis, that figure is about 50% higher than last year.

And those extraordinary items are detailed in the bridge in the press release. It would just be the year to date numbers.

Right. So then if I'm--if and when, or when you issue '07 guidance, will I look at-- the '07 guidance will be based post-fresh start accounting but I mean is it going to be comparable to an '06 operating income of 245?

We will do our best at that time to make sure that we have a comparable basis. Although you won't see it in the reported financial statements, we will do our best to bridge that for you.

To equalize it. Okay. And what will be your new DNA? I know there is a step-up. Can you give me a rough --

The DNA this year on a pre-fresh start basis is about 140 million. On a post-fresh start basis, so let's say for 2007, full year, we would expect it to be say 165 to 175.

Okay. And then could you--I don't recall you talking about this, but your business is fairly diversified, and--by end market, and I was wondering if you have other peers and other building product companies have talked about remodeling the--holding fairly firm to, you know, to up--I don't know, mid-single digits. Could you--do you care to give any comment on the residential remodel side?

On the residential remodel, that is the toughest one for us as we look going forward. Right now, the residential, the renovation stuff seems to be pretty good. As you look forward, the drivers for renovation on the residential side include existing home sales, operating--or the income, one driver that people point to a lot is price appreciation, in housing.

And so some of those are positive and some of them are negative. The existing home sales obviously is a negative right now. The reduced availability of financing, home equity financing as a source of cash for improvements is a negative.

On the other hand, we still have good growth in household income, which is important for us, and for the absolute level of renovation and then we think that the fact that they're not seeing the price appreciation that wouldn't really help us in terms of them not going as much to natural materials. So we're as ripe today, sitting at kind of mid-single digits outlook on residential renovation.

Mid-single digits growth for '07?

Yes.

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of [Dustin Cappaleto] of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hey there, guys. The question about the free cash flow I didn't catch the whole response. I was just wondering, moving forward, whether you guys have a policy or have an idea whether you will be paying dividends or considering share buybacks, etc., given that the considerable free cash flow you will be throwing off moving forward?

We are going to--the response to the free cash flow was a stumbling attempt to avoid the question. The simple facts are we are going to have cash short-term, and we are going to pay down debt.

We don't have any intention of paying a dividend. And we will look at other ways to use the cash when we've got more of it to talk about.

Okay. Thanks.

The next question comes from the line of [Matt Sherwood] of [These] Fund.

Hi, guys. Good quarter. I have a quick question on--I haven't read through the whole Q yet so just wanted to know where you guys are run rating on the cost savings program and then where you were anticipating to run rate in '07?

Well, I think Mike mentioned about $100 million of annual ongoing savings once we reach kind of the peak. I would say we are looking at about $80 million of that or so this year, and an incremental $20 million in 2007.

And that's 80 throughout the year as opposed to just fourth quarter run rate?

Yes, That is 80 throughout the year. Again, with the base year being 2004.

Right. So you're saying incremental 20 and that should be through the end of next year?

Yes, but I would say we're pretty close to that run rate now.

Okay. Got you. And then the other question, just wanted--I mean if you guys were down three in wood flooring and the market was down 15, you obviously picked up a lot of market share. Can you just sort of talk about the competitive dynamics there?

We've had extraordinarily good luck with the large builders. Now, it obviously comes at a time when that isn't the best thing you would like to have but last year, we had exclusive contracts with three of the top 10. This year, we have it with eight of the top 10, and that has been a big help us to.

Plus, we have a new product, a new locking product at Lowe's that is selling extremely well. So--and then the third element of it is we also put out 1,000 new displays to independent retailers for wood. So we've had a--those three things together have produced substantially better sales and some share gain.

Great job.

We think generally, in our flooring businesses, we have--in North America, we have been gaining share, not hordes of share, but not as much what is implicit in solid wood, but we think the share positions increased in all of them.

Great job, guys.

Okay. Thank you.

[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]

And there are no further questions. Please continue.

Thanks. Well, I want to thank everybody for your interest in Armstrong, appreciate you attending the call, and I will be available certainly for follow-up calls in the coming days. Have a good evening.

Okay. Thank you, and ladies and gentlemen, this conference will be available for replay after 10:15 p.m. today through Friday, November 10the.

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