Avantor Inc (AVTR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Emily, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Avantor's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Christina Jones, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mrs. Jones, you may begin the conference.

早安.我是艾米莉，今天將擔任這次電話會議的接線生。現在，我謹代表Avantor公司歡迎各位參加2022年第四季及全年財報電話會議。 （接線員指示）現在，我將把電話轉交給投資者關係副總裁克里斯蒂娜·瓊斯女士。瓊斯女士，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us. Our speakers today are Michael Stubblefield, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tom Szlosek, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The press release and a presentation accompanying this call are available on our Investor Relations website at ir.avantorsciences.com. A replay of this webcast will also be made available on our website after the call. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. During this call, we will be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our SEC filings. Actual results might differ materially from any forward-looking statement that we make today.

早安.感謝您參加本次電話會議。今天發言的兩位是總裁兼執行長 Michael Stubblefield 和執行副總裁兼財務長湯姆‧斯洛塞克 (Tom Szlosek)。本次電話會議的新聞稿和簡報可在投資者關係網站 ir.avantorsciences.com 上查閱。會議結束後，我們將在網站上提供本次網路直播的回放。在我們的發言結束後，我們將開放問答環節。在本次電話會議中，我們將做出一些符合聯邦證券法定義的前瞻性陳述，包括我們認為或預期未來可能發生的事件或發展。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，包括我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中列出的風險和不確定因素。實際結果可能與我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made. We do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or other developments. This call will include a discussion of non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures can be found in the supplemental disclosures package on our IR website. With that, I will now turn the call over to Michael.

這些前瞻性陳述僅代表其發布之日的觀點。我們不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他發展而更新這些前瞻性聲明的任何義務。本次電話會議將討論非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們投資者關係網站上的補充揭露文件中找到這些非GAAP財務指標的調節表。接下來，我將把電話會議交給Michael。

Thank you, CJ, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us today. I'm starting on Slide 3. Fourth quarter results were in line with the guidance provided during our Q3 call. Our business grew 2.7% on a core organic basis, and we expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by over 60 basis points as customer demand and supply chains continue to normalize, as we transition from the COVID-19 pandemic, the temporary headwinds we have faced largely played out as expected. For the full year, we delivered core organic revenue growth of 6% at the high end of our long-term target of 4% to 6%, with growth across all geographies and product groups.

謝謝CJ，大家早安。感謝各位今天參加本次會議。我將從第三張投影片開始。第四季業績與我們在第三季財報電話會議上給予的預期一致。我們的核心有機業務成長了2.7%，隨著客戶需求和供應鏈的持續正常化，以及我們從新冠疫情中逐步恢復，調整後EBITDA利潤率提高了60多個基點。先前我們面臨的暫時性不利因素基本上符合預期。全年來看，我們的核心有機收入成長了6%，達到了我們4%至6%的長期目標的高端，所有地區和產品組均實現了成長。

We expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 110 basis points, above our long-term target of 50 to 100 basis points and delivered $1.41 of adjusted EPS, outpacing our updated guidance of $1.38 to $1.40. We continue to execute on our long-term strategy and growth drivers, including advancing a robust innovation pipeline, expanding our manufacturing and distribution capacity, enhancing our digital capabilities and leveraging the Avantor business system to drive operational rigor. More than 70% of our revenue is in Life Sciences. And over the course of the year, we introduced a number of new products to support our customers in growing biologics platforms, including monoclonal antibodies, cell and gene therapy and mRNA.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 110 個基點，高於我們 50 至 100 個基點的長期目標，調整後每股收益 (EPS) 達到 1.41 美元，超過了我們更新後的 1.38 至 1.40 美元的預期。我們繼續執行長期策略和成長驅動因素，包括推進強大的創新產品線、擴大生產和分銷能力、增強數位化能力以及利用 Avantor 業務系統來提升營運效率。我們超過 70% 的收入來自生命科學領域。在過去一年中，我們推出了一系列新產品，以支持客戶發展生物製劑平台，包括單株抗體、細胞和基因療法以及 mRNA。

We enhanced our proprietary consumable offering with the extension of our precision plastics portfolio under our J.T. Baker brand. We also introduced innovative kits and flow cells from Oxford Nanopore, which helped generate next-generation sequencing data at the highest consensus accuracy. During the fourth quarter, we further augmented our global footprint and strengthened our ability to provide essential products and services to local biopharma customers as we opened our new CGMP distribution center in Dublin, Ireland, and produced our first commercial batches in our new CGMP manufacturing hub in Singapore.

我們透過擴展J.T. Baker品牌下的精密塑膠產品組合，增強了我們專有的耗材產品線。此外，我們還引進了來自牛津奈米孔公司的創新試劑盒和流動池，這些產品有助於以最高的一致性準確度產生下一代定序數據。第四季度，我們進一步擴大了全球佈局，並增強了為當地生物製藥客戶提供關鍵產品和服務的能力。我們在愛爾蘭都柏林開設了新的符合現行藥品生產規範（CGMP）的配送中心，並在新加坡新建的符合CGMP標準的生產中心生產了第一批商業批次產品。

In addition, we continue to improve supply for bioproduction customers and reduce lead times for a broad range of products across our portfolio. We also completed a number of contract renewals with our largest customers, including our recently announced multiyear agreement with Catalent that significantly expands our relationship, making Avantor as their primary supplier across a broad range of lab supplies and services. Continuous improvement is in our DNA. And in 2022, we completed more than 450 kaizen events focused on improving critical business processes, a 50% year-over-year increase. We also introduced enhancements to our organizational structure to strengthen commercial leadership, and we made significant progress in building out our strategy and corporate development team.

此外，我們持續改善生技客戶的供應，並縮短旗下各類產品的交貨週期。我們也與多家大型客戶續簽了合同，包括近期宣布與 Catalent 簽署的多年期協議，該協議顯著深化了雙方的合作關係，使 Avantor 成為其在各類實驗室耗材和服務方面的主要供應商。持續改進已融入我們的基因。 2022 年，我們完成了 450 多場專注於改善關鍵業務流程的改善活動，較去年同期成長 50%。我們也優化了組織架構，以加強商業領導力，並在策略和企業發展團隊的建立方面取得了顯著進展。

We remain focused on execution, and our 14,500 associates are aligned with our enterprise priority of driving growth. We made significant progress in 2022 with our science for Goodness platform, improving our ESG metrics from 4 major rating agencies. We are on pace to exceed our 2025 greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets and are accelerating our climate-related commitments in alignment with the latest science and look forward to sharing updates on our progress in this area in the coming months. Looking ahead, our long-term algorithm remains fully intact and highlights the strength and resilience of our business. Our guidance for 2023, which Tom will cover shortly, reflects our confidence in the fundamental growth drivers for life sciences as well as the headwinds we face in the current operating environment. With that, let me turn it over to Tom to walk you through our financial results in more detail.

我們始終專注於執行，我們14,500名員工與公司以推動成長為首要目標的各項工作保持一致。 2022年，我們的「科學造福社會」平台取得了顯著進展，提升了我們在四大評級機構的ESG指標。我們預計提前實現2025年溫室氣體減排目標，並根據最新科學成果加快推進氣候相關承諾，並期待在未來幾個月內分享我們在該領域的最新進展。展望未來，我們的長期演算法依然有效，凸顯了我們業務的實力和韌性。湯姆稍後將詳細介紹我們對2023年的業績展望，這反映了我們對生命科學領域基本成長驅動因素的信心，以及我們對當前經營環境所面臨挑戰的應對。接下來，我將把發言權交給湯姆，讓他更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. I'm starting on Slide 4. Starting from the top of the page, reported revenue was $1.795 billion for the quarter at the midpoint of guidance provided on our Q3 results call. Our core organic growth for the quarter was 2.7%, reflecting ongoing strength in our core business, partially offset by inventory destocking in liquid handling and single-use tubing that we flagged in our third quarter call, a weaker-than-expected year-end budget flush and approximately 170 basis points of headwind as a result of fewer selling days in the fourth quarter of 2022. For the full year, reported revenue was approximately $7.5 billion, and core organic growth was 6%, driven by over 20% core organic growth in bioproduction and double-digit growth in Advanced Technologies and Applied Materials, offset by approximately 70 basis points of headwind as a result of fewer selling days in 2022.

謝謝邁克爾，大家早安。我從第四張投影片開始。首先，本季報告營收為17.95億美元，與我們在第三季業績電話會議上給出的預期中位數相符。本季核心有機成長率為2.7%，反映了我們核心業務的持續強勁成長，但部分被我們在第三季電話會議上提到的液體處理和一次性管材的庫存去庫存、低於預期的年末預算調整以及2022年第四季銷售天數減少帶來的約170個基點的不利影響所抵消。全年報告營收約75億美元，核心有機成長率為6%，主要得益於生物生產超過20%的核心有機成長以及先進技術和應用材料業務的兩位數增長，但被2022年銷售天數減少帶來的約70個基點的不利影響所抵消。

Adjusted gross profit for the quarter was 34.3% and 34.8% for the full year, an expansion of almost 90 basis points compared to 2021. This expansion was driven by the favorable impact of our 2021 acquisitions, double-digit growth in sales of proprietary products and ongoing commercial excellence, partially offset by increased cost of materials and freight. Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $360 million in the quarter and $1.571 billion for the year, representing approximately 60 basis points and 110 basis points of margin expansion, respectively. The expansion was driven by our gross margin performance and our ongoing focus on productivity, while we continue to invest in growth. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.32 for the quarter and $1.41 for the year, driven by adjusted EBITDA performance, partially offset by higher interest expense and FX translation headwinds.

本季調整後毛利率為34.3%，全年為34.8%，較2021年成長近90個基點。這一成長主要得益於2021年收購帶來的有利影響、自有產品銷售額的兩位數成長以及持續卓越的商業表現，但部分被材料和運費上漲所抵消。本季調整後EBITDA約3.6億美元，全年約15.71億美元，毛利率分別成長約60個基點及110個基點。這一成長主要得益於毛利率的提升以及我們對生產效率的持續關注，同時我們也持續投資於成長。本季調整後每股盈餘為0.32美元，全年為1.41美元，主要得益於調整後EBITDA的成長，但部分被利息支出增加和匯率波動帶來的不利影響所抵銷。

Adjusted net income grew double digits for the year on a constant currency basis. This double-digit earnings growth on 6% core organic growth demonstrates the powerful earnings conversion attributes of our business model. We generated free cash flow of $172 million in Q4 and $710 million for the full year, below our expectations of $800 million. In the fourth quarter, we made investments to support customer contract renewals and extensions, which lowered our free cash flow, but which will support our growth profile in the years to come. We also proactively built inventory levels as a counter-measure against global supply chain constraints and experienced higher accounts receivable balances throughout 2022.

以固定匯率計算，全年調整後淨利達到兩位數成長。這一兩位數的獲利成長，得益於6%的核心內生成長，充分展現了我們商業模式強大的獲利轉換能力。第四季自由現金流為1.72億美元，全年自由現金流為7.1億美元，低於我們先前預期的8億美元。第四季度，我們為支持客戶合約續約和延期而進行了投資，這導致自由現金流有所下降，但將有助於我們未來幾年的成長。此外，為應對全球供應鏈的限制，我們積極提高了庫存水平，並在2022年全年經歷了更高的應收帳款餘額。

We have identified several opportunities to improve our working capital performance in 2023. Our adjusted net leverage ended the year at 3.7x adjusted EBITDA, down from 4.2x at the start of the year, putting us within our stated target leverage of 2x to 4x adjusted EBITDA. Overall, we delevered the balance sheet by 0.5x in 2022 and remain focused on incremental deleveraging over the course of 2023. Slide 5 outlines the components of our revenue growth in the quarter and the year. Our Q4 core organic revenue growth of 2.7% was in line with our guidance of 2% to 4%. Customer destocking in select product categories like liquid handling consumables and single-use tubing played out as expected, and Europe performed better than we anticipated. COVID-related revenues represented a 4.8% headwind for the quarter versus our expectation of 4% as vaccine-related sales slowed further in the fourth quarter, resulting in a 2.1% organic revenue decline.

我們已確定若干提升2023年營運資本表現的機會。經過調整後的淨槓桿率在年底為經調整EBITDA的3.7倍，低於年初的4.2倍，符合我們設定的2倍至4倍經調整EBITDA的目標槓桿率。整體而言，我們在2022年將資產負債表的槓桿率降低了0.5倍，並將繼續專注於在2023年進一步降低槓桿率。幻燈片5概述了本季和全年收入成長的組成。第四季核心有機營收成長2.7%，符合我們2%至4%的預期。客戶在特定產品類別（例如液體處理耗材和一次性軟管）的去庫存符合預期，歐洲市場的表現優於預期。由於疫苗相關銷售在第四季度進一步放緩，導致與新冠疫情相關的收入在本季下降了4.8%，高於我們4%的預期，最終有機收入下降了2.1%。

We had a modest M&A inorganic contribution of 0.7% in the fourth quarter associated with October sales for Masterflex, which laps its 1-year anniversary on November 1. Foreign exchange translation represented a 4.5% headwind driven primarily by the strength of the U.S. dollar versus the euro, resulting in a fourth quarter reported revenue decline of 5.9%. For the full year, the 6% core organic growth ended at the high end of our long-term growth algorithm, a testament of the health and resilience of our core business. COVID headwinds finished the year at 3.6%. We achieved $190 million of COVID-related sales in 2022.

第四季度，我們透過併購實現了0.7%的非內生性成長，這主要得益於Masterflex在10月份的銷售額。 Masterflex將於11月1日迎來成立一週年紀念。匯率波動帶來了4.5%的不利影響，主要受美元兌歐元走強的影響，導致第四季報告營收下降5.9%。全年來看，核心內生性成長達到6%，處於我們長期成長演算法的高端水平，這充分證明了我們核心業務的穩健性和韌性。新冠疫情帶來的不利影響為3.6%。 2022年，我們實現了1.9億美元的與新冠疫情相關的銷售額。

M&A contributed 3.6% and FX represented a 4.3% headwind, resulting in 1.7% reported growth for 2022. On to Slide 6. From a regional perspective, Americas, which represents approximately 60% of annual global sales was flat on a core organic basis in the fourth quarter, with strong growth in serum, process ingredients and excipients for bioprocessing and custom formulations for the semiconductor space, offset by destocking headwinds in liquid handling consumables and single-use tubing. On a full year basis, Americas grew 6.1% on a core organic basis, driven by double-digit growth in bioprocessing, and Advanced Technologies and Applied Materials and strong contributions from Biomaterials. Europe, which represents approximately 35% of annual global sales achieved 6.3% core organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter and 5.5% for the year, above our expectations for the region, driven by strength in bioproduction and biomaterials.

併購貢獻了3.6%的成長，匯率波動造成了4.3%的負面影響，最終導致2022年報告成長率為1.7%。接下來是投影片6。從區域角度來看，美洲地區約佔全球年銷售額的60%，第四季核心有機成長基本上持平。血清、生物加工製程原料和輔料以及半導體定製配方業務的強勁成長抵消了部分成長，但液體處理耗材和一次性管材的去庫存壓力抵消了這些成長。全年來看，美洲地區核心有機成長6.1%，主要得益於生物加工、先進技術和應用材料業務的兩位數成長以及生物材料的強勁貢獻。歐洲地區約佔全球年銷售額的35%，第四季核心有機收入成長6.3%，全年成長5.5%，高於我們對該地區的預期，主要得益於生物生產和生物材料的強勁表現。

Bioproduction grew double digits in the fourth quarter on a core organic basis, driven by robust demand for our process ingredients, excipients and single-use solutions. Although industrial demand in Europe continues to be moderate as expected, our performance in this region reflects the value of our end market exposure and diversified application and customer mix and highlights the overall resilience of our business. EMEA, which represents approximately 5% of annual global sales, grew 5.7% on a core organic basis in the fourth quarter and 7% for the full year, driven by sales of proprietary materials to advanced technologies and applied materials customers and bioproduction strength in process ingredients and excipients. Slide 7 shows our core organic revenue growth for the quarter by end market and product group.

第四季度，生物製藥業務核心有機成長達到兩位數，主要得益於市場對我們製程原料、輔料和一次性解決方案的強勁需求。儘管歐洲的工業需求如預期般保持溫和，但我們在該地區的表現體現了我們終端市場佈局的價值以及多元化的應用和客戶組合，並突顯了我們業務的整體韌性。歐洲、中東和非洲地區（EMEA）約佔全球年銷售額的5%，第四季核心有機成長5.7%，全年成長7%，主要得益於面向先進技術和應用材料客戶的專有材料銷售以及生物製藥在製程原料和輔料方面的優勢。幻燈片7展示了我們按終端市場和產品組劃分的季度核心有機收入成長。

Biopharma representing almost 55% of our annual revenue, grew low single digits in the quarter, including high single-digit growth in bioproduction. Liquid handling and single-use inventory headwinds impacted fourth quarter growth, primarily in the Americas region. For the full year, biopharma grew high single digits, led by over 20% growth in bioproduction. Health care, which represents approximately 10% of our annual revenue, declined mid-single digits on a core organic basis in the fourth quarter and grew low single digits for the full year, driven by strength in biomaterials, offset by inventory destocking in liquid handling consumables, which was particularly pronounced in the fourth quarter. Education and government representing approximately 10% of our annual revenue, experienced a low single-digit core organic revenue decline in the fourth quarter and full year.

生物製藥業務占我們全年營收的近55%，本季實現了低個位數成長，其中生物製品生產業務實現了高個位數成長。液體處理和一次性耗材庫存的不利因素影響了第四季度的成長，主要影響區域為美洲地區。全年來看，生物製藥業務實現了高個位數成長，其中生物製品生產業務成長超過20%。醫療保健業務約占我們全年收入的10%，第四季度核心有機增長出現中個位數下降，全年實現了低個位數增長，這主要得益於生物材料業務的強勁表現，但被液體處理耗材庫存的去庫存所抵消，尤其是在第四季度，去庫存的影響更為顯著。教育和政府業務約占我們全年收入的10%，第四季和全年核心有機收入均出現低個位數下降。

Advanced technologies and applied materials, representing approximately 25% of our annual revenue, achieved high single-digit core organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter and double-digit growth for the full year, driven by growth in proprietary materials for semiconductor and electronic device applications, partially offset by a moderation in industrial demand in Europe. By product group, proprietary materials and consumables offerings grew high single digits in the quarter and double digits for the full year, driven by strong demand across our bioproduction, biomaterials and advanced technologies and applied materials platforms.

先進技術和應用材料業務約占我們全年收入的25%，第四季度核心有機收入實現了高個位數增長，全年實現了兩位數增長，這主要得益於半導體和電子器件應用領域專有材料的增長，但部分被歐洲工業需求的放緩所抵消。按產品類別劃分，專有材料和耗材產品在第四季度實現了高個位數成長，全年實現了兩位數成長，這主要得益於生物生產、生物材料以及先進技術和應用材料平台的強勁需求。

Sales of third-party materials and consumables declined mid-single digits in the quarter and grew low single digits for the full year, impacted by a moderation in lab consumables demand relating to destocking. Services and Specialty procurement declined low single digits in Q4 and grew mid-single digits for the year, driven by strength in lab and production services. Equipment & Instrumentation sales grew low single digits in the quarter and the full year with growth across all 3 regions. Moving to Slide 8, I'd like to provide an update on the contributions from our recent acquisitions. As a reminder, this slide reflects the 12 months revenue and margin for Masterflex, Ritter and RIM Bio in 2022. Full year results included $393 million of revenue and $136 million of adjusted EBITDA, resulting in a 35% adjusted EBITDA margin.

受去庫存導致實驗室耗材需求放緩的影響，第三方材料和耗材的銷售額在本季出現個位數中段下滑，全年則達到個位數低段成長。服務和特種採購在第四季度出現個位數低段下滑，但全年則達到個位數中段成長，主要得益於實驗室和生產服務的強勁表現。設備和儀器的銷售額在本季和全年均達到個位數低段成長，三大區域均成長。接下來，我將在第8張投影片中介紹我們近期收購的貢獻。提醒一下，這張投影片反映了Masterflex、Ritter和RIM Bio在2022年的12個月營收和利潤率。全年業績包括3.93億美元的營收和1.36億美元的調整後EBITDA，調整後EBITDA利潤率為35%。

Masterflex revenues were modestly below our estimates due to ongoing top line pressures relating to customer destocking in our tubing category and ongoing component shortages for peristaltic pumps. Despite the transitory headwinds, we are highly encouraged by the Masterflex leading market position, pipeline of exciting new product launches and robust demand from our bioproduction customers for our end-to-end fluid management solution. Ritter revenue came in slightly above our revised expectations for the year, driven by a stabilization of the research and diagnostics platform as the COVID roll-off concluded in the second quarter. Europe industrial demand was slowed, albeit at a more moderate pace than anticipated.

由於客戶對我們管材類別的去庫存以及蠕動幫浦組件持續短缺，Masterflex 的營收略低於預期。儘管面臨暫時的不利因素，Masterflex 的市場領先地位、令人振奮的新產品上市計劃以及生物生產客戶對我們端到端流體管理解決方案的強勁需求，都令我們倍感鼓舞。 Ritter 的營收略高於我們修正後的年度預期，主要得益於隨著新冠疫情在第二季逐漸消退，其研發和診斷平台業務趨於穩定。歐洲工業需求放緩，但成長速度低於預期。

The team is working to convert our pipeline of commercial opportunities and introduce new products in our technology road map, including 4 significant product launches planned for the first half of this year. RIM Bio generated $10 million of revenue for the year, a supplier constraint pushed another $10 million of revenue from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of 2023. We are excited with the traction and momentum we have built with this business, including the successful transfer of 2D and 3D bag technology from RIM Bio to our global customers. Looking at 2023, we expect Masterflex tubing headwinds to subside by midyear with a return to double-digit core organic growth in the back half of 2023. Ritter performance has stabilized, and we expect sequential improvement in Ritter revenue throughout 2023, as the effects of our commercial synergy program and NPI investments take hold.

團隊正致力於將現有商業機會轉化為實際項目，並根據技術路線圖推出新產品，其中包括計劃於今年上半年發布的四款重要產品。 RIM Bio全年營收達1,000萬美元，但由於供應商限制，原定於第四季的1,000萬美元營收被延後至2023年第一季。我們對該業務的進展和勢頭感到振奮，包括成功地將RIM Bio的2D和3D袋技術轉移給我們的全球客戶。展望2023年，我們預期Masterflex管材業務的不利因素將在年中消退，並在2023年下半年恢復兩位數的核心有機成長。 Ritter的表現已趨於穩定，我們預期隨著商業協同計畫和新產品導入投資的效果逐步顯現，Ritter的營收將在2023年全年持續成長。

On the right hand of this page, we've provided an update on balance sheet leverage. We exited 2022 at 3.7x leverage within our target range of 2 to 4x leverage. We were able to mitigate the impact of rising rates on our 2022 interest expense through proactive interest rate management and debt pay down. Given the interest rate environment, we will continue to focus on deleveraging as we move into 2023, while also actively building our pipeline of M&A opportunities. Turning to Slide 9. I'd like to walk you through our 2023 guidance. Beginning with revenue, we start with our long-term algorithm of 4% to 6% core organic growth, which is based on our differentiated position serving attractive end markets. We continue to see strong demand in Life Sciences and expect another year of double-digit core organic revenue growth in bioproduction.

在本頁右側，我們提供了資產負債表槓桿率的最新資訊。 2022年底，我們的槓桿率為3.7倍，在我們設定的2至4倍的目標範圍內。透過積極的利率管理和債務償還，我們成功降低了利率上升對2022年利息支出的影響。鑑於當前的利率環境，我們將繼續專注於降低槓桿率，並積極擴展併購機會。接下來請看第9頁投影片。我想向您介紹我們對2023年的業績展望。首先是營收方面，我們基於自身差異化優勢，服務於極具吸引力的終端市場，設定了4%至6%的長期核心有機成長目標。我們持續看到生命科學領域的強勁需求，並預期生物生產領域的核心有機收入將連續第二年達到兩位數成長。

We are initiating 2023 core organic revenue growth guidance at 2.5% to 4.5%. We expect continued strength in bioproduction and a healthy overall pricing environment, moderated by the near-term inventory destocking in lab and single-use consumables, which we've discussed as well as reduced demand from industrial applications globally, notably in our semiconductor end market. Moving forward, we will not be categorizing revenue as COVID related, as it is expected to be immaterial. Consequently, the COVID headwind for 2023 is predetermined at about 2.5%. This results in organic revenue growth of 0% to 2%. We expect FX to be neutral for the full year at our current planning rates, leading to a reported growth of 0% to 2%.

我們首次發布2023年核心有機收入成長預期，為2.5%至4.5%。我們預計生物製藥業務將持續強勁成長，整體價格環境也將保持健康，但實驗室和一次性耗材的短期庫存削減（我們已對此進行過討論）以及全球工業應用需求下降（尤其是在我們的半導體終端市場）將對成長起到一定的抑製作用。展望未來，我們將不再把與新冠疫情相關的收入歸類為與新冠疫情相關的收入，因為預期其影響微乎其微。因此，我們預先設定2023年新冠疫情帶來的不利影響約為2.5%。這將導致有機收入成長0%至2%。我們預計全年匯率將保持中性，以我們目前的計劃匯率計算，這將導致報告收入增長0%至2%。

On adjusted EBITDA, we expect margin to range from 25 basis points of contraction to 25 basis points of expansion with commercial excellence, growth in our proprietary offerings and productivity tempered by the macro inventory headwinds, the dilutive impact of the COVID revenue roll-off and ongoing inflationary pressures. We have a track record of delivering strong margin expansion, and we are working diligently to find opportunities to offset margin headwinds, including leveraging our Avantor business system to execute on a robust funnel of productivity initiatives. For earnings, we are initiating our 2023 guidance at $1.35 to $1.45 adjusted earnings per share, which reflects the range of our revenue and margin expectations as well as interest expense of $270 million to $295 million and a 21.5% tax rate. Our interest expense estimate reflects the impact of current forward yield curves on the roughly 30% of our unhedged variable rate debt.

調整後 EBITDA 方面，我們預期利潤率將在收縮 25 個基點至擴張 25 個基點之間波動，這主要得益於卓越的商業表現、自有產品的增長以及生產效率的提升，但宏觀庫存不利因素、新冠疫情導致的收入下滑以及持續的通膨壓力將有所抑制。我們擁有強勁的利潤率成長記錄，並積極尋找機會抵消利潤率方面的不利因素，包括利用我們的 Avantor 業務系統來實施一系列強有力的生產力提升計劃。關於獲利，我們初步預測 2023 年調整後每股收益為 1.35 美元至 1.45 美元，這一預測反映了我們對收入和利潤率的預期範圍，以及 2.7 億美元至 2.95 億美元的利息支出和 21.5% 的稅率。我們的利息支出預估反映了當前遠期殖利率曲線對我們約 30% 未對沖浮動利率債務的影響。

The rate increases are expected to have an unfavorable year-over-year impact on interest expense of about $65 million that will be largely offset by the impact of deleveraging. We expect to generate approximately $700 million to $800 million of free cash flow, which includes a modest improvement in working capital as our supply chain continues to normalize. Regarding pacing, the more pronounced 2023 first half COVID headwinds and inventory destocking result in more tempered expectations for the first half of 2023 compared with the second half. We expect first quarter core organic revenue declines of 1.5% to 3.5% and COVID headwinds of 4.5%, leading to organic revenue declines of 6% to 8%. This reflects more difficult comparables in the first quarter as well as our assumptions around industrial demand globally, including semiconductors.

預計升息將對利息支出產生約6500萬美元的年比不利影響，但去槓桿化帶來的影響將基本抵消這一影響。我們預計將產生約7億至8億美元的自由現金流，其中包括隨著供應鏈持續恢復正常而帶來的營運資本的適度改善。關於業績成長速度，由於2023年上半年新冠疫情帶來的不利影響更為顯著，且庫存去庫存化，因此我們對2023年上半年的預期較下半年更為謹慎。我們預期第一季核心有機收入將下降1.5%至3.5%，新冠疫情帶來的不利影響將下降4.5%，導致有機收入下降6%至8%。這反映了第一季基數較高，以及我們對包括半導體在內的全球工業需求的預期。

We also expect a roughly 2.5% headwind from FX, leading to reported revenue of $17.50 to $17.85. With that, I will now hand the call to Michael.

我們也預期匯率波動會帶來約2.5%的不利影響，導致報告營收在17.50美元至17.85美元之間。接下來，我將把電話會議交給麥可。

Thanks, Tom. As we conclude, I want to emphasize our conviction in our long-term financial algorithm. We view the current headwinds and supply chain normalization as short-term dynamics that will subside in the second half of the year, as supported by internal analysis, ongoing customer interactions and industry trends. We are confident in our plan for 2023 and are well positioned to execute on our growth strategy. I am encouraged by the strong fundamentals in our end markets, the deep relationships we have with customers and the positive returns we are generating from our investments in innovation and capacity expansions.

謝謝湯姆。最後，我想強調我們對長期財務策略的信心。我們認為，目前的不利因素和供應鏈正常化只是短期波動，根據內部分析、持續的客戶互動和產業趨勢，這些因素將在下半年逐漸消退。我們對2023年的計畫充滿信心，並已做好充分準備執行成長策略。終端市場的強勁基本面、與客戶建立的深厚關係以及我們在創新和產能擴張方面的投資所帶來的積極回報都令我倍感鼓舞。

Our strong free cash flow enables rapid deleveraging and capital allocation flexibility as we continue to actively build our M&A pipeline. Thank you for your interest in Avantor and for your continued support. I will now turn it over to the operator to begin the question-and-answer portion of our call.

我們強勁的自由現金流使我們能夠快速降低槓桿率，並靈活配置資本，從而持續積極地拓展併購專案。感謝您對Avantor的關注與持續支持。現在我將把電話交給接線員，開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Patrick Donnelly with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的派崔克唐納利。

Michael, maybe just on a couple of those variables as we enter '23 here. It seems like Europe industrial demand, you guys were pretty cautious last quarter going out some risks in the macro. It seems like you're feeling a little bit better about that. And then the second one, obviously, some of that excess inventory in the system on the lab business. particularly in the liquid handling. Can you maybe just talk about those 2? What they look like in terms of variability in the guidance? And then the visibility, particularly on that excess inventory, what you're hearing from customers visibility into that normalizing? And when we should expect that to kind of get back to kind of growth and a little bit more normal?

邁克爾，我們即將進入2023年，或許可以就其中幾個變數談談您的看法。首先，你們上個季度對歐洲工業需求相當謹慎，考慮到宏觀經濟的一些風險。現在看來，你們似乎對此感覺好多了。其次，顯然，實驗室業務，特別是液體處理的庫存過剩問題。您能否談談這兩個面向？它們對業績指引的影響如何？還有，關於庫存過剩的可見性，您從客戶那裡了解到的情況，對庫存恢復正常化有何看法？我們預計何時才能恢復成長並達到正常水平？

Thanks for the question, Patrick. I think that's a great place to start. When you point out the dynamics that we saw in the fourth quarter on Europe certainly played out a bit better than we expected, and we're certainly pleased with more than 6% core organic revenue growth there in the quarter. It really continues a strong year that we had there in the region. Entering the quarter, I think we were trying to reflect just some of the uncertainty associated with the energy situation in Europe. Certainly, the conflict in Ukraine as well as just overall recessionary concerns and it certainly played out a bit better than we had anticipated.

謝謝你的提問，派崔克。我認為這是一個很好的切入點。你指出，我們在第四季看到的歐洲市場動態確實比預期要好一些，我們對該季度超過6%的核心有機收入成長感到非常滿意。這延續了我們在這一地區的強勁業績。進入本季時，我認為我們試圖反映出歐洲能源狀況的一些不確定性，例如烏克蘭衝突以及整體經濟衰退的擔憂，但實際情況確實比我們預期的要好一些。

And as we look ahead into the year, I think we're encouraged by the trends that we see there, although we remain a little bit cautious. From a destocking perspective, I think the quarter played out as we had anticipated, both in liquid handling consumables as well as in the single-use consumables within our bioprocessing offering and transitioning into 2023, I think the picture for us remains largely unchanged. As we engage with our customers, as we triangulate a number of reports and analytics that we have, I think our view here is that it's probably something that will be with us throughout the first half of the year, which will lead to a dynamic here that Tom referenced with the second half of the year being stronger than the first half. So we'll expect ongoing destocking here in the first quarter should start to improve a bit as we move through the second quarter, and we would expect that to hopefully be behind us as we get into the second half of the year.

展望未來一年，我們對目前的趨勢感到鼓舞，但仍保持謹慎。從去庫存的角度來看，本季的情況與我們的預期一致，無論是液體處理耗材或生物製程產品中的一次性耗材，都符合預期。展望2023年，我認為情況基本上維持不變。透過與客戶的溝通，並結合我們掌握的多項報告和分析，我們認為這種情況可能會持續到上半年，正如Tom所提到的，下半年的業績將強於上半年。因此，我們預計第一季持續的去庫存情況將在第二季度開始有所改善，並希望到下半年能夠徹底解決。

Our next question comes from Rachel Vatnsdal with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rachel Vatnsdal。

Great. So my question is just around margins. You guys exited 4Q at roughly 19.5% EBITDA margin. You're guiding to down 25 to up 25 basis points for the year. So can you just talk about some of the puts and takes, very similar to Patrick's question, given some of these headwinds in the start of the year, how should we think about that EBITDA margin expansion or contraction on a quarterly basis? And then is that mainly driven by price or volume? Or kind of how should we see that rolling through the P&L?

好的。我的問題是關於利潤率的。你們第四季末的EBITDA利潤率約為19.5%。你們預計全年利潤率將上下浮動25個基點。鑑於年初的一些不利因素，能否談談一些相關的看法？這個問題與Patrick的問題非常相似，我們該如何看待季度EBITDA利潤率的擴張或收縮？這主要是由價格還是銷售驅動的？或者說，我們該如何看待它在損益表中的體現？

Thanks for the question, Rachel. I think I'd start by just reiterating our confidence in our ability to continue to expand margins. And I would point to the fourth quarter as a good proof point of that. The environment we saw in the fourth quarter is probably pretty similar to what we're anticipating as we move into the new year here, and we're coming off a quarter here where we did expand 60 basis points. So certainly, a strong track record of being able to do that.

謝謝你的提問，瑞秋。我想先重申一下我們對持續提升利潤率的信心。第四季就是一個很好的例子。第四季的市場環境與我們預計在新的一年將面臨的市場環境非常相似，而我們上個季度的利潤率確實提升了60個基點。所以，我們在這方面有著非常出色的業績記錄。

When you look at our margin expansion algorithm, there's probably 2 or 3 variables that we really focus on, certainly starting with managing price versus COGS. A big part of that process plays out in the fourth quarter and early days of the first quarter. We're pretty well through that. And I think we're pretty confident that although pricing is going to be above our long-term algorithm and similar to what we delivered last year, we do think it's going to be sufficient to contribute at a level that we would historically see. You then get into things like mix, and we've talked openly about the roll-off of the COVID headwinds that are pretty margin rich.

當我們審視我們的利潤率提升演算法時，會發現我們主要關注兩到三個變量，首先當然是價格與銷售成本的平衡。這一過程的大部分將在第四季和第一季初進行。目前我們已經基本完成這個階段了。我們相當有信心，儘管定價會高於我們的長期演算法預期，並且與去年同期水平相近，但我們認為這足以讓我們達到以往的利潤水平。接下來，我們也要考慮產品組合等因素，我們也公開討論過新冠疫情帶來的不利影響逐漸消退的問題，這些不利因素對利潤率的提升貢獻巨大。

We're working against us, as we move through the year. That's going to be more pronounced in the first and second quarter than it would be in the second half of the year. And then the last variable I mentioned is just around the productivity aspects of our program here. We've got a pretty full pipeline of opportunities that we're driving to help mitigate the impacts of inflation. So I would say largely the algorithm is intact. We'll -- we tried to reflect some of the headwinds associated with the mix as well as just the volume impact as destocking and COVID come down and the impact that, that has on absorption. But I think we're cautiously optimistic here out of the gates as we look ahead to margins and look to build on our strong track record.

隨著時間的推移，我們面臨一些不利因素。這種情況在第一季和第二季會比下半年更加明顯。我提到的最後一個變數與我們專案的生產力方面有關。我們正在積極推進一系列項目，以幫助緩解通膨的影響。因此，我認為演算法基本上保持不變。我們試圖反映一些與產品組合相關的不利因素，以及隨著去庫存和新冠疫情的影響而導致的銷售下降及其對吸收的影響。但我認為，展望未來，我們對利潤率持謹慎樂觀態度，並希望延續我們良好的業績記錄。

Our next question comes from Luke Sergott with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的盧克·塞爾戈特。

So two for me. So just quickly on Masterflex came in a little light versus your guide for the year. Any kind of commentary there, what you guys are seeing in the fourth quarter? And any signs that this is troughed and starting to get better from a destocking perspective and the various headwinds there. And then secondly, can you talk about -- I mean, you guys have talked about the investments you made in the customers. And you just came out with the master service agreement with -- or the service agreement with Catalent. Can you give us any other color that you're around the future or current deals that you guys are working on that kind of underlie the improving outlook here?

所以，我有兩個問題。首先，關於Masterflex，它的表現略低於你們的年度預期。你們對此有何評論？你們對第四季的業績有何看法？是否有跡象表明，從去庫存和各種不利因素的角度來看，情況已經觸底並開始好轉？其次，你們談到了對客戶的投資，以及最近與Catalent達成的整體服務協議。你們能否透露一些關於未來或當前交易的信息，以說明你們正在推進哪些交易，從而推動前景改善？

Thanks for the questions. Starting with Masterflex. As Tom mentioned in his remarks, we continue to be incredibly optimistic about that business, not only from a growth standpoint, but also a margin standpoint. It's one of the leading franchises in the single-use space and gives us one of the only end-to-end aseptic fluid management solutions in the industry. Really great traction, strong brand recognition, and we're thrilled to have it as part of the portfolio. The inventory destocking that we talked about related to particularly the tubing offering associated with that, continues to play out as expected. It might have been a little bit stronger in Q4 than maybe what we had anticipated, but not far off of that. We expect to see that to be with us through the first half of the year, as I mentioned. I imagine as we work through the first quarter and sort of to transition to the second quarter, we would anticipate things to start to incrementally improve and would anticipate having that behind us, as we move into the second half of the year.

感謝各位的提問。首先說說Masterflex。正如Tom在發言中提到的，我們對這項業務依然非常樂觀，不僅從成長角度來看，也從利潤率角度來看。它是單次使用領域的領先品牌之一，為我們提供了業內為數不多的端到端無菌流體管理解決方案。該品牌發展勢頭強勁，品牌知名度高，我們很高興將其納入我們的產品組合。我們先前提到的與該品牌相關的管材產品庫存去庫存工作仍在按預期進行。第四季的去庫存量可能略高於預期，但差距不大。正如我之前提到的，我們預計這種情況會持續到今年上半年。我預計，隨著我們度過第一季並過渡到第二季度，情況會逐步好轉，並有望在下半年徹底解決這個問題。

The other headwind that we faced in Masterflex, which is the ongoing chip and component shortages for our -- pumping technology. We've got a great order book there and a backlog that continues to build. So I think we certainly draw confidence from the strong demand and positioning of that technology. And the supply chain continues to improve. We do still have certain components that we're struggling to get on time, but we're starting to see incremental improvements there. And as Tom mentioned, I think as we get to the second half of the year, we're expecting double-digit core organic growth for that business.

Masterflex面臨的另一個不利因素是泵送技術持續存在的晶片和組件短缺問題。我們這方面的訂單量很大，積壓訂單還在增加。因此，我認為我們對這項技術的強勁需求和市場地位充滿信心。供應鏈也持續改善。雖然我們仍然難以按時獲得某些組件，但情況已經開始逐步改善。正如Tom所提到的，我認為到了下半年，我們預計該業務的核心有機成長將達到兩位數。

Really appreciate your second question as well. We continue to have really great traction and momentum with our customers. This is an important part of our business model, the unparalleled customer access that we do enjoy. And when I look at 2022, the team did just a remarkable job in renewing and extending relationships with new customers as well as acquiring new business. We referenced in the fourth quarter a pretty significant agreement that we were fortunate to put in place with Catalent, where we became their primary supplier of a broad range of laboratory supplies and clinical and production materials and end services that will significantly expand our current relationship with them.

非常感謝您的第二個問題。我們與客戶的合作持續保持著強勁的成長動能。我們擁有無與倫比的客戶資源，這是我們商業模式的重要組成部分。展望2022年，團隊在維繫和拓展與新客戶的關係以及開發新業務方面都取得了卓越的成績。我們在第四季度提到了與Catalent達成的一項意義重大的協議，我們很榮幸成為其實驗室耗材、臨床和生產材料以及終端服務的主要供應商，這將極大地拓展我們與Catalent的現有合作關係。

We also extended the duration of our lab supplies and lab services relationship with Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson and that came with a pretty significant upfront investment. But we're really excited by the positioning we have with that business and the duration that we were able to achieve with that extension. So just another good example of the traction we have and momentum we have in the business.

我們也延長了與強生公司旗下楊森製藥的實驗室耗材和實驗室服務合作關係，需要一筆相當大的前期投資。但我們對目前在該業務領域的定位以及此次延期所取得的成果感到非常滿意。這再次印證了我們在該業務領域的進展和強勁勢頭。

Tom mentioned in his comments around free cash flow that some of these relationships do require a bit of an upfront investment that we were able to reflect in our cash flows in Q4, which will give us significant returns as we enjoy the revenues of those relationships as we move forward.

湯姆在談到自由現金流時提到，其中一些合作關係確實需要一些前期投資，而我們已經在第四季度的現金流中反映了這一點，隨著我們未來繼續享受這些合作關係帶來的收入，這將為我們帶來可觀的回報。

The inventory destocking that we talked about related to particularly the tubing offering associated with that, continues to play out as expected. It might have been a little bit stronger in Q4 than maybe what we had anticipated, but not far off of that. We expect to see that to be with us through the first half of the year, as I mentioned. I imagine as we work through the first quarter and sort of to transition to the second quarter, we would anticipate things to start to incrementally improve and would anticipate having that behind us, as we move into the second half of the year.

我們先前提到的庫存去庫存，特別是與此相關的管材供應，目前仍如預期進行。第四季的去庫存量可能略高於預期，但差距不大。正如我之前提到的，我們預計這種情況會持續到今年上半年。我預計，隨著第一季的結束以及向第二季的過渡，情況會逐步好轉，並有望在下半年徹底解決這個問題。

The other headwind that we faced in Masterflex, which is the ongoing chip and component shortages for our -- pumping technology. We've got a great order book there and a backlog that continues to build. So I think we certainly draw confidence from the strong demand and positioning of that technology. And the supply chain continues to improve. We do still have certain components that we're struggling to get on time, but we're starting to see incremental improvements there. And as Tom mentioned, I think as we get to the second half of the year, we're expecting double-digit core organic growth for that business.

Masterflex面臨的另一個不利因素是泵送技術持續存在的晶片和組件短缺問題。我們這方面的訂單量很大，積壓訂單還在增加。因此，我認為我們對這項技術的強勁需求和市場地位充滿信心。供應鏈也持續改善。雖然我們仍然難以按時獲得某些組件，但情況已經開始逐步改善。正如Tom所提到的，我認為到了下半年，我們預計該業務的核心有機成長將達到兩位數。

Really appreciate your second question as well. We continue to have really great traction and momentum with our customers. This is an important part of our business model, the unparalleled customer access that we do enjoy. And when I look at 2022, the team did just a remarkable job in renewing and extending relationships with new customers as well as acquiring new business. We referenced in the fourth quarter a pretty significant agreement that we were fortunate to put in place with Catalent, where we became their primary supplier of a broad range of laboratory supplies and clinical and production materials and end services that will significantly expand our current relationship with them.

非常感謝您的第二個問題。我們與客戶的合作持續保持著強勁的成長動能。我們擁有無與倫比的客戶資源，這是我們商業模式的重要組成部分。展望2022年，團隊在維繫和拓展與新客戶的關係以及開發新業務方面都取得了卓越的成績。我們在第四季度提到了與Catalent達成的一項意義重大的協議，我們很榮幸成為其實驗室耗材、臨床和生產材料以及終端服務的主要供應商，這將極大地拓展我們與Catalent的現有合作關係。

We also extended the duration of our lab supplies and lab services relationship with Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson and that came with a pretty significant upfront investment. But we're really excited by the positioning we have with that business and the duration that we were able to achieve with that extension. So just another good example of the traction we have and momentum we have in the business.

我們也延長了與強生公司旗下楊森製藥的實驗室耗材和實驗室服務合作關係，需要一筆相當大的前期投資。但我們對目前在該業務領域的定位以及此次延期所取得的成果感到非常滿意。這再次印證了我們在該業務領域的進展和強勁勢頭。

Tom mentioned in his comments around free cash flow that some of these relationships do require a bit of an upfront investment that we were able to reflect in our cash flows in Q4, which will give us significant returns as we enjoy the revenues of those relationships as we move forward.

湯姆在談到自由現金流時提到，其中一些合作關係確實需要一些前期投資，而我們已經在第四季度的現金流中反映了這一點，隨著我們未來繼續享受這些合作關係帶來的收入，這將為我們帶來可觀的回報。

The next question today comes from Vijay Kumar of Evercore ISI.

今天的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Vijay Kumar。

I had a 2-part, Michael, maybe I'll start with you. The guidance here, when I look at the midpoint core organic, 3.5% for the year, that's 150 basis points below your LRP. And when I look at Q1, I think that number is 750 basis points. So one, is all of this inventory destocking macro industrial slowdown? Is that happening in Q1? Is that the bridge between your 5% to 3.5% for the annual, and I thought, for some reason, Q4, those headwinds were around 300 basis points. So why is it accelerating here in Q1?

邁克爾，我的問題分為兩部分，或許我先從你開始。我看了一下你們的指引，核心有機成長率中位數為3.5%，比你們的長期預測低了150個基點。而第一季度，我認為這個數字是750個基點。所以，首先，所有這些庫存去庫存是否都與宏觀產業放緩有關？這種情況是否發生在第一季？這是否是你們預測的年度成長率從5%降至3.5%之間的過渡因素？我記得，不知何故，第四季的不利因素大約是300個基點。那麼，為什麼第一季的情況會加速惡化呢？

And 1 for Tom on -- on margins here, Tom, I thought you said pricing was positive. Can you clarify what the pricing assumption is for fiscal '23 and why shouldn't pricing aid your margins here in '23?

湯姆，關於利潤率，我記得你說過定價策略對利潤率有利。可以解釋一下2023財年的定價假設是什麼嗎？為什麼定價策略在2023年不應該對利潤率有幫助？

Yes. Vijay, thanks for the questions. I'll take the first one. The midpoint of our 2023 core organic guide of 3.5% contemplates roughly 250 basis points of macro impact, and that would include certainly the impact of destocking. It would include our view on kind of just the general macro environment and the impacts on our applied markets, perhaps most notably in the semiconductor market, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks. And so that gets on that basis to the high end of our long-term guide of roughly 6%. So very much in line with what we've been doing over the last several years.

是的，Vijay，謝謝你的提問。我先回答第一個問題。我們2023年核心有機成長預期中位數為3.5%，其中約包含了250個基點的宏觀經濟影響，當然包括去庫存的影響。它也包含了我們對整體宏觀環境及其對應用市場（尤其是半導體市場，正如我們在準備演講稿中提到的）影響的看法。因此，基於此，我們的預期值接近長期成長預期的高端，約為6%。這與我們過去幾年的做法非常一致。

As you think about then the phasing within 2023, I think the headwinds that we've talked about are certainly most pronounced in Q1. We'll have -- destocking effects in Q1 are certainly most pronounced there as well as just our view of the macro impacts on some of our applied markets. I'd also note in Q1, kind of relative to where we're at in Q4. Q1 is one of our most difficult comps of the year. I think we're running into a comp that's probably 300 basis points plus in Q1 compared to where we were at in Q4. So it's certainly going to be a situation here where the second half will be stronger than the first half, as we work through some of these destocking events.

展望2023年的發展階段，我認為我們之前討論過的不利因素在第一季最為顯著。第一季的去庫存效應以及我們對部分應用市場宏觀經濟影響的預期都將最為明顯。我還想指出，第一季相對於第四季的情況而言，是全年最難預測的季度之一。我認為第一季的基數比第四季高出300個基點以上。因此，隨著我們逐步克服這些去庫存事件，下半年的業績肯定會比上半年更好。

And Vijay, on the second question. Thanks for the question on the margins and in particular, on pricing. Just to reiterate what's behind our guidance. I think it's helpful to remind ourselves, since the IPO, we've been tracking to the high end of our margin expansion long range plan of 50 to 100 basis points, nearly at 100 basis points or so when you look at each of those years. So the drivers are not much different than they've been in the past. And we like to think of it, as Michael said earlier, it has 3 components. The first thing, the pricing and overall, what we call commercial excellence and in other words, balancing pricing against inflationary pressures on COGS inputs and other inputs. I think the -- this has really proven to be a core capability of Avantor.

Vijay，關於第二個問題。感謝你提出的關於利潤率，特別是定價的問題。我想再次重申我們業績指引背後的原因。我認為有必要回顧一下，自IPO以來，我們一直朝著利潤率擴張長期計劃的高端目標邁進，該計劃的目標是50到100個基點，而從過去幾年來看，我們幾乎每年都達到了100個基點左右。因此，驅動因素與過去並沒有太大變化。正如Michael之前所說，我們認為這包含三個面向。首先是定價，以及我們所說的商業卓越性，換句話說，就是在定價與通膨壓力（包括銷售成本和其他投入）之間取得平衡。我認為——這確實已經證明是Avantor的核心能力。

We've got fairly sophisticated approach, a lot of data, really strong talent and systems and software to drive us a little long in the process for 2023. It's a big annual exercise starts in early November and really culminates right around now and working with suppliers and customers. So, we're well along. We have a high degree of confidence in our ability to drive the price to offset inflationary pressures and be accretive to margins, as Michael had said. So that's definitely a positive factor for us.

我們擁有相當成熟的方法、大量數據、強大的人才隊伍以及完善的系統和軟體，這些都將幫助我們在2023年的流程中取得進展。這是一項大型年度工作，從11月初開始，一直持續到現在，需要與供應商和客戶密切合作。因此，我們進展順利。正如麥可所說，我們對自身有能力透過價格控制來抵銷通膨壓力並提高利潤率充滿信心。這無疑是一個利好因素。

When you're considering the range that we've given. I certainly think that the COVID headwinds need to be taken into account when you see roughly $200 million of revenue coming out of the plan from '22 actuals to '23. That's pretty margin-rich content. And since it's mostly in biopharma production, vaccines and other kinds of content that go into -- bio production vaccines. We're reflecting that in the guide as well. And then I think overall, the third aspect in addition to mix is just productivity for margins. And we have plans in place, as we always do, that address material productivity, that address performance of our factories, performance of our distribution centers.

在考慮我們給出的預期範圍時，我認為必須將新冠疫情帶來的不利影響考慮在內，因為從2022年到2023年，該計劃預計將減少約2億美元的收入。這部分利潤相當可觀。而且由於這部分收入主要來自生物製藥生產，包括疫苗和其他生物製藥相關產品，我們也在預期目標中反映了這一點。此外，我認為除了產品組合之外，第三個關鍵因素是提高利潤率所需的生產效率。我們一如既往地制定了相關計劃，以提高原料的生產效率，並提升工廠和配送中心的營運效率。

And we'll continue to be pretty vigilant on costs and know that will contribute to some potential movement to the higher end of the guide. So I wouldn't look at our guide as reflecting anything materially different than what we talked about in Q3 and Q4 in our various meetings. I think we're setting up in a way that I think as we look ahead, we feel that it's pretty prudent start for the year in terms of expansion margin.

我們將繼續密切關注成本，並意識到這可能會導致業績指引略微上調。因此，我認為我們的業績指引與我們在第三季和第四季各種會議上討論的內容並無實質差異。展望未來，我認為我們目前的佈局方式，就擴張空間而言，是一個相當審慎的開局。

Your next question comes from Michael Ryskin with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的邁克爾·里斯金。

I got a couple of parts, but it's just one stion. And I kind of wanted to touch on debt levels, interest expense and M&A. So could you just walk us through again the interest expense coming in higher year-over-year if the deleveraging remains a top priority. We thought it would kind of come down a little bit despite where rates ended at the end of the year? And then on 3Q, along those lines, previously on 3Q, you said we're concentrating near-term M&A efforts on improving performance of recent acquisitions -- and yes, using available free cash to reduce debt. Today, I think you had a comment about actively building a pipeline of M&A opportunities. So definitely noticing a tone change there. Could you talk us through what's going on? And is that something you're doing towards the end of the year? Is there a certain leverage target you want to hit before you're back to being in a hunt for more M&A? Just clarify the difference there.

我收到了一些訊息，但只有一個問題。我想談談債務水準、利息支出和併購。如果去槓桿化仍然是首要任務，您能否再次解釋一下利息支出較去年同期上升的情況？我們原本以為，儘管年底利率最終會達到一定水平，但利息支出還是會略有下降。另外，關於第三季度，您先前在第三季報告中提到，我們將近期併購工作的重點放在提升近期收購專案的業績上——當然，也會利用可用的自由現金流來降低債務。今天，您提到要積極建立併購機會管道。我明顯感覺到語氣有變化。能否解釋一下具體情況？這是您在年底前要做的事情嗎？您是否希望在重新開始尋求更多併購機會之前達到某個特定的槓桿目標？請您解釋一下其中的差異。

Yes. Thanks, Mike. I'll answer the first question, and I'll let Michael answer the second. In terms of our leverage and debt levels, things are playing out as we kind of articulated in our planning. We started out the year north of 4x leverage in 2022. We ended at 3.7x. And when you look at the impacts on interest expense and so forth, they're also playing out as we expected. So we expect to continue on that delevering path. We'll probably be -- when we execute our plan in '23, we expect to be in the low 3s, if not at 3, and we're encouraged by momentum. When you look at the key drivers of the delevering for us, it certainly is free cash flow.

是的，謝謝，麥克。我來回答第一個問題，第二個問題就交給麥可回答吧。就我們的槓桿率和債務水準而言，情況正如我們在計劃中所闡述的那樣發展。 2022年初，我們的槓桿率超過4倍，年底降至3.7倍。利息支出等方面的影響也符合我們的預期。因此，我們預計將繼續走去槓桿化的道路。我們預計，到2023年執行計畫時，槓桿率將達到3倍左右，甚至可能低於3倍，目前的勢頭令人鼓舞。說到我們去槓桿化的關鍵驅動因素，自由現金流無疑是最重要的。

And while 2022 didn't exactly hit the mark on free cash for us, we were pretty pleased with how the interest itself was managed. We had articulated at the beginning of the year roughly $260 million of interest expense. We came in roughly $266 million. And that's with over 400 basis points of increases in various reference rates that impact our weighted average borrowing cost. So when you look at how we manage that, we did a few things to basically convert variable rate debt to fixed. We also, right before all the interest rate increases had taken place. We had a good portion of basically refinancing our entire portfolio. So over the course of 2021, we had significantly lowered our overall weighted average cost of borrowing. And the combination of those 2 things, that is the repricing as well as some of the things we did in '22 on swapping variable to -- sorry, fixed to variable and the euro swap that we did.

雖然2022年我們的自由現金流並未完全達到預期，但我們對利息支出的管理情況相當滿意。年初我們預期利息支出約2.6億美元，而實際支出約為2.66億美元。這還是在各種參考利率上漲超過400個基點的情況下，這些利率都影響了我們的加權平均借貸成本。為了應對這種情況，我們採取了一些措施，主要是將浮動利率債務轉換為固定利率債務。此外，在所有利率上漲之前，我們也對大部分投資組合進行了再融資。因此，在2021年，我們大幅降低了整體加權平均借貸成本。而這兩項措施的結合，包括重新定價以及我們在2022年採取的一些措施，例如將浮動利率債務轉換為固定利率債務，以及我們進行的歐元互換，最終實現了這一目標。

We ended up improving the mix of our variable versus fixed rate where about 30% of our debt is variable rate, most of that is exposed to the euro. And as we look to 2023 interest expense, you've got 2 components there. Certainly, that 30% of the debt that's variable. We do have some impacts, as I talked about and quantified in the past, certainly close to $50 million or $60 million of pressure on interest expense from that. But the delevering impact largely offsets most of that and so if we deliver at the midpoint of our guidance range at $700 million to $800 million in free cash flow, I think we'll be in pretty good shape. So we're -- we've called that interest expense roughly $270 million to $290 million in the guide. So it's relative to $266 in '22 and considering the interest rate environment, pretty pleased with how that looks to come in. And the more cash we can generate, the better we'll do on interest expense.

我們最終優化了浮動利率與固定利率的債務結構，目前約30%的債務為浮動利率，其中大部分與歐元掛鉤。展望2023年的利息支出，主要包含兩個面向。首先是這30%的浮動利率債務。正如我之前討論和量化的那樣，這確實會對利息支出造成一定影響，預計會帶來5000萬至6000萬美元的壓力。但去槓桿化帶來的影響在很大程度上抵消了這些壓力。因此，如果我們能夠實現7億至8億美元自由現金流的預期區間中位數，我認為我們的財務狀況將相當不錯。我們在預期中將利息支出預計在2.7億至2.9億美元之間。相較於2022年的2.66億美元，考慮到目前的利率環境，我們對目前的預期相當滿意。我們產生的現金越多，利息支出就越能控制。

Michael, I'll pick up the second part of your question there around M&A. Maybe just a couple of comments. Firstly, I would just reiterate that M&A has been and will continue to be an important part of our playbook, and we've been actively investing and enhancing our capabilities. You'll recall, we announced a new Head of Strategy and Corporate Development, Kitty Sahin, who joined the team late last summer. And she's been busy in building out her team to put us in a better position going forward. When I think about the environment for M&A in 2022 and where we're at here in the first half of the year, certainly, we're cognizant of our own leverage as well as the status of the debt markets.

邁克爾，關於併購，我來回答你問題的第二部分。我先補充幾點。首先，我想重申，併購一直是並將繼續是我們策略規劃的重要組成部分，我們一直在積極投資並提升自身能力。你可能還記得，我們​​宣布了新的策略與企業發展主管凱蒂·薩欣(Kitty Sahin)的任命，她於去年夏末加入團隊。她一直在努力組建團隊，以使我們在未來的發展中處於更有利的地位。展望2022年的併購環境以及我們今年上半年的現狀，我們當然非常關注自身的槓桿水平以及債務市場的狀況。

And consequently, have been and will continue to prioritize deleveraging in this environment. I think there's still some disconnect between buyer and seller expectations and I think there's a reasonable amount of just market uncertainty associated with transactions. So it makes sense for us to focus on delivering the commercial synergies of the deals that we closed in '21 and continue to give ourselves more flexibility by deleveraging. But I think it's prudent to continue to be active in building a pipeline, which we have been doing throughout '22. And we'll certainly remain focused on that as we move here into 2023.

因此，我們過去一直並將繼續以降低槓桿率作為當前環境下的首要任務。我認為買賣雙方的預期仍然存在一些脫節，而且交易本身也存在相當程度的市場不確定性。所以，我們專注於實現2021年完成交易的商業綜效，並透過降低槓桿率來提升自身的靈活性，這才是明智之舉。但我認為，繼續積極拓展專案儲備也是明智之舉，我們在2022年也一直在做這件事。進入2023年，我們當然也會繼續專注於此。

Just to ensure that we're positioned as opportunities open up in market -- markets start to normalize, perhaps later this year as we move into 2024. So I don't think our position has really changed here in terms of our view of the priority of M&A or just -- the status of the current market conditions, but we'll continue to invest in this area and make sure that we are prepared if and when things open up again.

為了確保我們能夠在市場開始恢復正常時——或許在今年晚些時候，也就是進入2024年——抓住機遇，我們將繼續加大對併購的投入，確保在市場再次開放時做好準備。因此，我認為就我們對併購的優先地位以及當前市場狀況的看法而言，我們的立場並沒有真正改變。

Our next question comes from Dan Brennan with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Dan Brennan。

Maybe just one on bioproduction, so in 4Q, I think you said it grew high single digits. Just give us a little color kind of maybe unpack that number a bit. It was a bit slower than the trend, but obviously, there's a lot going on within that. So I would love to get color on kind of how you executed the year on bioproduction. And then I know you talked about the '23 strong growth. Maybe a little color on what you're assuming for '23 in terms of the growth rate and included in that, how does some of the new capacity that you're bringing online impact your growth outlook across that business?

或許可以就生物生產方面談一點，您提到第四季度實現了接近兩位數的成長。能否詳細解釋一下這個數字？雖然增速略低於預期，但顯然其中有許多因素。所以我很想了解您今年在生物生產方面的執行情況。另外，我知道您提到了2023年的強勁成長。能否談談您對2023年成長率的預期，以及新增產能將如何影響您對該業務整體成長的展望？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Dan. I think at a high level, probably important to reflect on just the strength of the overall bioproduction space. 2022 was a great year for novel drug approvals. I think there are 18 large molecules that were approved, including some pretty big ones in the area of Alzheimer's, for example. I'm sure you all saw the news earlier this week around biosimilar approval in the HUMIRA space. So there continues to be, I would say, a very favorable backdrop in the core monoclonal antibody space. There are 6 CAR-T therapies that are available in the U.S. and Europe, and there's a big year ahead here in '23 of candidates that are up for approval. So backdrop for the space, I would say, is incredibly strong, and we remain quite bullish about not only the space, but certainly our position and long-standing track record of outgrowing the broader market by 200 to 300 basis points. We concluded 2022 with more than 20% bioproduction core organic revenue growth, so another really, really terrific year.

是的，謝謝你的提問，丹。我認為從宏觀層面來看，或許應該先回顧整個生物製藥領域的強勁動能。 2022年是新藥核准的豐收年。我記得有18種大分子藥物獲批，其中包括一些治療阿茲海默症的重磅藥物。我相信大家本週早些時候都看到了關於阿達木單抗（HUMIRA）生物相似藥獲批的新聞。因此，我認為核心單株抗體領域的情況依然非常有利。目前美國和歐洲已有6種CAR-T療法上市，2023年還有大量候選藥物等待審批。所以，我認為整個領域的情況非常強勁，我們不僅對這個領域充滿信心，而且對我們自身以及長期以來超越市場平均水平200到300個基點的業績記錄也充滿信心。 2022 年，我們的生物生產核心有機收入成長超過 20%，又是一個非常非常棒的一年。

Q4 was certainly the lightest quarter of the year for us in that space, really reflecting the impacts of destocking, particularly in the single-use consumables area. We obviously have a very broad portfolio that touches nearly every step of that process from upstream, downstream to fill and finish. And I think we had pretty good performance across the space with the exception of these liquid handling consumables. And we saw it both in Masterflex as well as in our legacy business. I think the quarter played out largely as we had anticipated. I think Tom referenced, we did have a pretty meaningful order in our RIM Bio business of nearly $10 that slipped from our plan in December into the early part of this year due to a supplier constraint. So absent that, I think it was another double-digit quarter and a really strong finish to the year. As we think about 2023, again, we'll deal with these destocking events through the first half of the year. And overall, we expect another year of double-digit organic revenue growth in bioproduction.

第四季無疑是我們該領域全年業績最淡的季度，這確實反映了去庫存的影響，尤其是在一次性耗材領域。我們的產品組合非常廣泛，幾乎涵蓋了從上游、下游到填充和包裝的每個環節。我認為，除了液體處理耗材之外，我們在該領域的整體表現都相當不錯。無論是Masterflex還是我們的傳統業務，都出現了這種情況。我認為本季的業績基本上符合預期。正如Tom所提到的，我們在RIM Bio業務中確實有一筆價值近10美元的重要訂單，由於供應商的限制，這筆訂單從我們原定的12月推遲到了今年年初。因此，如果沒有這筆訂單，我認為本季又將實現兩位數的成長，並為全年畫下一個非常強勁的句號。展望2023年，我們預計上半年仍將面臨去庫存的影響。總體而言，我們預計生物生產業務的有機收入將在2023年繼續保持兩位數成長。

Our next question comes from Tejas Savant with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Tejas Savant。

Just a few follow-ups there, Michael. Starting with bioproduction, can you give us just what your open order growth was in terms of the order book at year-end '22 versus year-end '21? And second, in terms of the guide itself, would you be willing to break out what you're assuming for Masterflex Ritter and RIM versus the $393 million that you did in '22? And then finally, Tom, on your comments on free cash flow. Could you elaborate a little bit on some of those working capital improvements that you referenced, that you expect to provide an offset to the growth investments here in '23?

邁克爾，還有幾個後續問題。首先是生物製藥方面，您能否具體說明一下，2022年底的未完成訂單量與2021年底相比增長了多少？其次，關於績效指引本身，您能否詳細說明一下您對Masterflex Ritter和RIM的預期與2022年3.93億美元的預期有何不同？最後，湯姆，關於您提到的自由現金流，您能否詳細解釋一下您提到的那些營運資本改善措施，這些措施預計可以抵消2023年成長投資的影響？

Thanks, Tejas, for the questions. Appreciate you joining us today. On bioproduction, I think the setup for that space, as I just mentioned, is quite strong heading into the year. We have a really terrific order book that reflects I think the strong underlying market fundamentals as well as, I think, the investments that we've made in capacity to improve service levels and bring down lead times. We were fortunate even in the fourth quarter to reduce the lead times on several hundred GMP materials, which will support our customers' growth, as we move into the year.

謝謝Tejas的提問。感謝您今天參加我們的節目。關於生物生產，正如我剛才提到的，我認為今年的市場狀況相當強勁。我們擁有非常可觀的訂單，這不僅反映了強勁的市場基本面，也得益於我們在產能提升、服務水準提高和交貨週期縮短方面的投資。即使在第四季度，我們也很幸運地縮短了數百種GMP物料的交貨週期，這將有助於我們客戶在新的一年中實現成長。

So a great backdrop from an order book standpoint to start the year. Relative to our acquisitions in terms of how we think about those shaping up in 2023, we expect Masterflex tubing headwinds side by midyear and would return to double-digit core organic growth in the back half of '23. Ritter business has certainly stabilized. I think if you look at the outperformance relative to plan in the second half of the year, finishing above the high end of our guide, certainly gives us a little bit of momentum heading into the year. And the way I would think about Ritter is a sequential improvement, as we move quarter-to-quarter here as the effects of all the work that we're doing around end customer conversion through our channel as well as, and importantly, the impacts of all of the NPIs that will be launched as part of our technology road map.

從訂單量來看，今年開局情勢一片大好。就我們2023年對收購業務的展望而言，我們預期Masterflex管材業務將在年中克服不利因素，並在2023年下半年恢復兩位數的核心有機成長。 Ritter業務也已趨於穩定。我認為，下半年業績超出預期，最終高於我們預期的上限，這無疑為我們全年的發展注入了強勁動力。我認為Ritter業務將持續改善，隨著我們每季業績的提升，這得益於我們透過通路提升終端客戶轉換率所做的所有工作，以及我們技術路線圖下所有新產品上市計畫（NPI）的影響。

We had some pretty meaningful launches in the fourth quarter and another 4 or so launches planned for the first half of the year that will put us in position to continue to improve the trajectory of that business. And I would say, in aggregate, we do expect on a full year basis growth for our -- for these acquisitions. PAUSE.

我們在第四季推出了一些非常重要的產品，並且計劃在今年上半年再推出約4款產品，這將使我們能夠繼續改善這項業務的發展軌跡。總的來說，我們預期這些收購帶來的全年成長。

Yes. And just to answer the question on working capital. I mean I think the important backdrop here is that business continues to generate a strong amount of cash and has since the IPO. We're a low CapEx model and our conversion relative to our net income is generally pretty strong relative to our peers. 2022 was a unique year in many ways, and I think our supply chain was probably the most impacted by the events that we've seen unfold over the course of the last couple of years. We've made a fair amount of investment in our inventory to cushion and manage the availability of inventory and also to protect our customers, their supply chains.

是的。關於營運資金的問題，我想回答一下。我認為關鍵在於，自IPO以來，公司持續產生大量現金流。我們採用的是低資本支出模式，相對於同業而言，我們的資本轉換率和淨利率通常都相當高。 2022年在許多方面都是特別的一年，我認為過去幾年發生的一系列事件對我們的供應鏈影響最大。我們已對庫存進行了大量投資，以緩衝和管理庫存可用性，並保護我們的客戶及其供應鏈。

So no secret when you look at our statement of cash flows that inventory has been an area of build for us in both '21 and '22. Michael referenced lead times when he's talking about open orders, certainly has an impact on inventory levels as well. And we are starting to see significant improvements as a result of the actions that our supply chain teams have taken on reducing lead times, both from our suppliers as well as within our own 4 walls of our distribution manufacturing. So we're encouraged by that. We think we can take a few days out of inventory over the course of 2023.

所以，從我們的現金流量表中可以看出，庫存是我們2021年和2022年持續成長的領域，這一點顯而易見。麥可在談到未完成訂單時提到了交貨週期，這無疑也會對庫存水準產生影響。由於我們的供應鏈團隊採取措施縮短交貨週期，包括供應商的交貨週期以及我們自身分銷和製造環節的交貨週期，我們已經開始看到顯著的改善。這讓我們倍感鼓舞。我們認為，到2023年，庫存週轉天數可以減少幾天。

The other aspect is that '22 was unique for the pricing environment that we're in as well. They were probably an unprecedented level of number of pricing changes. And that makes it challenging to stay psychotic with your customers on individual invoices and at times, there can be confusion. We've worked through most of that. I think on the receivables side, we're pretty confident that we'll be able to take a couple of days out of that as well over the course of the year. So I mean you're looking up. And I think the working capital investments we've made have paid off, but I think we do see some opportunity there, and that's reflected in our free cash flow guidance.

另一方面，2022年的定價環境也十分特殊。價格變動的次數可能達到了前所未有的水準。這使得我們很難隨時關注每張發票上的客戶訊息，有時甚至會造成混亂。不過，我們已經基本解決了這些問題。我認為，在應收帳款方面，我們相當有信心在今年內也能將這種情況緩解幾天。所以，情況正在好轉。我認為我們所做的營運資金投資已經取得了成效，但我們也看到了一些機會，這也反映在我們的自由現金流預期中。

The next question comes Dan Leonard of Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的丹·倫納德。

Tom, you mentioned that customer contract renewals pressured free cash flow in the quarter. Could you circle back to that? What types of investments are associated with a contract renewal? And was there anything abnormal in the fourth quarter? Or was this just normal course of business?

湯姆，你提到客戶合約續約在本季給自由現金流帶來了壓力。能再詳細說說嗎？合約續約通常涉及哪些類型的投資？第四季是否有任何異常情況？還是說這只是正常的業務流程？

Yes. The business model with most of our customers is to drive volumes and to drive growth. And you typically enter into long-term agreements with the customers, could be anywhere from 3 to 7 years, and they're often extended. And so it's a natural part of the business that either you have a contract coming up that you extend or in the case of some of the ones that Michael has mentioned, we actually can expand the services in those. But embedded in the business model are incentives to drive volume growth for the customers. And it's pretty formula in terms of the milestones that they achieve on growth -- cumulative growth relative in particular product categories and whatnot.

是的。我們大多數客戶的商業模式都是以提升銷售量和促進成長為目標。我們通常會與客戶簽訂長期協議，期限從3年到7年不等，而且經常會續約。因此，續約是業務運營的自然組成部分，或者像邁克爾提到的某些情況一樣，我們可以擴展現有客戶的服務。但我們的商業模式中也包含激勵機制，旨在促進客戶的銷售成長。這套機制相當公式化，根據客戶在特定產品類別等方面達到的成長里程碑來制定獎勵－例如累積成長率。

And so when you enter into new agreements or extended agreements, there typically is an upfront type of -- as well that gets factored into the equation. And you deal with those all the time. It's just the size and magnitude of the customers we've talked about in the fourth quarter, took more out of our free cash flow than is normal. But we're quite excited by the investments we think they're going to drive -- continue to drive really strong growth for us, as we go forward in those customers so that's the mark.

因此，在簽訂新協議或續約協議時，通常都會有一些前期費用需要考慮。我們常常會遇到這種情況。只是我們在第四季提到的那些客戶的規模和影響力，消耗了我們比平常更多的自由現金流。但我們對這些投資感到非常興奮，我們認為隨著我們與這些客戶的合作，這些投資將繼續為我們帶來強勁的成長，這就是我們的目標。

The next question comes from Brandon Couillard with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的布蘭登·庫伊拉德。

Mike just on the Service and Specialty segment was down low single digits in the fourth quarter. Can you unpack that a bit? And Tom, are there any selling day variances to be aware of that you'd like to call out for this year, looking forward.

麥克，服務和專業業務板塊第四季下滑幅度很小，能詳細解釋一下嗎？湯姆，展望今年，你覺得有哪些銷售日差異需要注意？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Brandon. Overall, the services and specialty procurement part of our offering is an important aspect of kind of the customer intimacy model that we do have and gives us a pretty privileged position with our customers. I would say a couple of factors that drove kind of the underperformance in that part of the offering in the fourth quarter. Certainly, the specialty procurement nature of that reflects, I would say, just the overall macro environment and the level of activity in our customers' labs as well as probably a muted year-end budget flush. Part of the offering there is to support procurement of materials that aren't necessarily a core part of our portfolio. And we saw a somewhat muted finish to the year, particularly in the Americas.

是的，謝謝你的提問，布蘭登。總的來說，我們提供的服務和特種採購業務是我們客戶關係模式的重要組成部分，也讓我們在客戶中佔據了相當有利的地位。我認為，導致該業務在第四季度表現不佳的原因有幾個。首先，特種採購業務的性質反映了整體宏觀環境、客戶實驗室的活動水平，以及可能的年底預算支出放緩等因素。這項業務的部分目的在於支援採購那些並非我們核心產品組合的材料。我們看到，尤其是在美洲地區，該業務在年底的業績表現較為平淡。

So I don't think anything that particularly caught our attention there other than just a reflection of the environment activity -- here in the early days of the first quarter have been strong, and we're certainly encouraged by PAUSE the trajectory that we've got here out of the gates, but really just related to, I would say, the overall macro environment and destocking and a more muted year-end budget flush.

所以，除了環境活動反映出來之外，我認為沒有什麼特別引起我們注意的事情——第一季初的活動一直很強勁，我們當然對 PAUSE 目前的良好勢頭感到鼓舞，但這實際上與整體宏觀環境、去庫存以及較為溫和的年底預算調整有關。

Thanks, Brandon. On the selling days, I assume you mean going forward. And for 2023, overall for the full year, the number of selling days is the same as 2022, roughly. You'll have a little bit of favorability in the first quarter, and we end up giving that back in the third quarter. I think the second and fourth quarters selling days are roughly equal year-over-year.

謝謝，布蘭登。關於銷售日，我猜你指的是未來一段時間的情況。 2023年全年的銷售日總數與2022年大致相同。第一季會有一些有利因素，但第三季就會有所回落。我認為第二季和第四季的銷售日與去年同期大致相同。

Our next question comes from Joshua Waldman of Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的約書亞·沃爾德曼。

A 2-parter for you. First, would be helpful to hear your thoughts on just how prudent you view the flat to up to organic guide to be. When you consider moving pieces like inventory destocking price, and I guess, underlying demand do you think the 2% assumes a base case scenario for these variables? Do you think the first quarter guide, for example, captures the base case.

這裡有兩個問題想請教您。首先，我想聽聽您對「持平或略有成長」有機成長預期是否謹慎的看法。考慮到庫存去庫存、價格以及潛在需求等因素，您認為2%的成長預期是否基於這些變數的基本假設？例如，您認為第一季的預期是否反映了這種基本假設？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Josh. What I would say about our guidance is that it certainly does reflect the number of variables that we see and certainly is underpinned by our view of really strong end market fundamentals, particularly in the life sciences space. The 250 basis points of kind of macro headwinds that we've categorized certainly reflects our view today of destocking as well as I would say, a step down in our applied growth rates from '22 into '23. We ran well ahead of our long-term algorithm in '22 in that part of the market. Most quarters were high single digit, low double digits, in an end market that more classically for us grows mid-single digits.

是的，謝謝你的提問，Josh。關於我們的業績指引，我想說的是，它確實反映了我們所觀察到的諸多變量，也確實基於我們對終端市場基本面強勁的看法，尤其是在生命科學領域。我們歸類的250個基點的宏觀不利因素，確實反映了我們目前對去庫存的看法，以及我認為2022年至2023年增長率的下降。 2022年，我們在該領域的業績遠超長期演算法的預期。大多數季度的成長率都達到了接近兩位數，而通常情況下，該終端市場的成長率在我們看來是中等個位數。

So within that 250 basis points also reflects a normalization of growth in that part of the business and a pretty meaningful step down in the semiconductor end market, for example. On the other side, we do see continued strong contribution from price in the year ahead, maybe not quite as strong as in '22, but certainly above our long-term algorithm. So we're closely monitoring the dynamics that are at play here. We're certainly hard to identify opportunities to offset some of the headwinds in other parts of our portfolio like in bio materials. We recognize there's a sequential ramp in growth rates throughout the year to achieve the guidance that we've put out there.

因此，這250個基點也反映了該業務板塊成長的正常化，例如，半導體終端市場出現了相當顯著的下滑。另一方面，我們預計未來一年價格仍將保持強勁成長，或許不如2022年那麼強勁，但肯定會高於我們的長期預期。因此，我們正在密切關注當前的市場動態。我們目前很難找到機會來抵消我們投資組合其他部分（例如生物材料）面臨的一些不利因素。我們意識到，為了實現我們先前發布的業績指引，全年的成長率將逐步提升。

But we have certainly confidence in the shape of the plan, given the demand signals that we see today as well as a moderation in comparables in the back half of the year. So when we put all that together, I think we're confident in the plan. I think it's a prudent place to start.

但鑑於我們目前看到的需求訊號，以及下半年可比銷售額的放緩，我們對該計劃的框架充滿信心。綜合所有因素，我認為我們對該計劃充滿信心。我認為這是一個審慎的開端。

Those are all the questions we have time for today. So I'll now turn the call back to Michael for the conclusion remarks.

今天的問題就問到這裡。現在我把電話交還給邁克爾，請他做總結發言。

Yes. Thank you, and thank you all for participating in our call today. Certainly appreciate your support and look forward to updating you when we meet next. And until then, take care and be well, everyone. Thank you.

是的。謝謝，也謝謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。非常感謝大家的支持，期待下次見面時向大家報告最新狀況。在那之前，祝福大家一切順利，身體健康。謝謝。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect your lines.

感謝各位今天參與我們的通話。通話到此結束，您可以掛斷電話了。