American Vanguard Corp (AVD) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the American Vanguard fourth quarter earnings review conference call.

    您好,歡迎參加美國先鋒第四季財報審查電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

    (操作員指示)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。

  • I will now turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Anthony Young, Director, Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

    現在我將會議交給主持人、投資者關係總監 Anthony Young 先生。先生,請您發言。

  • Anthony Young - Director of Investor Relations

    Anthony Young - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to American Vanguard's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings review. Our prepared remarks will be led by Dak Kaye, Chief Executive Officer; and David Johnson, Chief Financial Officer. Tim Donnelly, CIO and General Counsel, is also available to answer questions.

    謝謝您,接線生。早安,歡迎閱讀美國先鋒集團 2024 年第四季和全年收益回顧。我們的準備演講將由執行長 Dak Kaye 主持;以及財務長 David Johnson。首席資訊長兼總法律顧問 Tim Donnelly 也可以回答問題。

  • We have prepared a presentation slides which we will reference during this call. These slides are posted on the Investor Relations section of the American Vanguard website.

    我們準備了一份簡報幻燈片,我們將在本次通話中參考它。這些幻燈片發佈在美國先鋒網站的投資者關係部分。

  • Let's begin this call with our forward-looking cautionary reminder. During this call, we may discuss forward-looking information. All forward-looking statements are estimates by the company's management and are subject to various risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ.

    讓我們以前瞻性的警示提醒開始這通通話。在本次電話會議中,我們可能會討論前瞻性資訊。所有前瞻性陳述均為公司管理階層的估計,受各種風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果有所不同。

  • Such factors include weather conditions, changes in regulatory policy, and other risks as detailed in the company's SEC reports and filings. All forward-looking statements represent the company's judgment as the date of this release, and such information will not necessarily be updated by the company.

    這些因素包括天氣狀況、監管政策變化以及公司美國證券交易委員會報告和文件中詳述的其他風險。所有前瞻性陳述均代表本公司截至本新聞稿發布之日的判斷,且此類資訊不一定會由本公司更新。

  • Before commencing with the call, I would like to note the numbers that are being presented today are unaudited numbers. We anticipate there will be a delay in filing the audited 10-K and are working closely with our auditors to complete the process, and we will look forward to providing these audited financial documents shortly.

    在開始通話之前,我想指出今天呈現的數字是未經審計的數字。我們預計提交經審計的 10-K 將會延遲,並且正在與我們的審計師密切合作以完成該流程,我們期待很快提供這些經審計的財務文件。

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to CEO, Dak Kaye.

    現在我很高興將電話轉給執行長 Dak Kaye。

  • Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Anthony. Hello, everyone, and welcome. My name is Douglas Kaye, but throughout my life, my family, friends, and colleagues have referred to me as Dak. So please feel free to call me Dak in the future.

    謝謝,安東尼。大家好,歡迎光臨。我的名字是道格拉斯·凱,但在我的一生中,我的家人、朋友和同事都稱我為達克。所以以後請隨意叫我達克 (Dak)。

  • This is my first conference call as CEO. So before discussing our results, I would like to take a moment to introduce myself and answer the question I've received most frequently during my three months on the job.

    這是我作為執行長的第一次電話會議。因此,在討論我們的結果之前,我想花點時間介紹一下自己,並回答我在工作三個月期間最常遇到的問題。

  • Why did you join American Vanguard? I've been on the job as CEO for three months, but have known, competed against and admired American Vanguard for many years. I started my career in finance but have spent the second half of my career managing and growing large-scale crop protection businesses.

    為什麼加入美國先鋒報?我擔任執行長才三個月,但多年來一直了解、競爭和欽佩美國先鋒公司。我的職業生涯始於金融領域,但職業生涯的後半段一直在管理和發展大型作物保護業務。

  • It was not an easy decision to leave my last role, but I saw a tremendous opportunity at American Vanguard to build upon a business that provides high quality, irreplaceable products that our customers valued and needed by growers. This company has a resilient revenue base that we can build upon, but we must improve margins, right size the balance sheet and get back to growth.

    離開上一份工作並不是一個容易的決定,但我在 American Vanguard 看到了巨大的機會,可以在此基礎上發展一家提供高品質、不可替代的產品的企業,這些產品是我們的客戶所重視的,也是種植者所需要的。該公司擁有堅實的收入基礎,我們可以在此基礎上繼續發展,但我們必須提高利潤率,調整資產負債表規模,恢復成長。

  • As David will discuss in a few minutes, the one-time charges taken during this quarter are part of a broader strategy to improve this business. The magnitude of the charge is substantial. These steps are necessary to reposition the company for long-term growth and profitability.

    正如大衛幾分鐘後將要討論的那樣,本季收取的一次性費用是改善該業務的更廣泛策略的一部分。指控的金額相當大。這些措施對於公司重新定位以實現長期成長和獲利是必要的。

  • We have a lot of ground to cover on this call. But before we get started, I wanted to emphasize that I plan on having a culture that stresses the importance of safety. Ensuring the safety, health, and well-being of our employees and the environment is an important part of my role here and one of my goals is to ensure that our employees return home safely after every day of work.

    這次通話中我們有很多內容需要討論。但在開始之前,我想強調的是,我計劃建立一個強調安全重要性的文化。確保員工和環境的安全、健康和福祉是我在這裡職責的重要組成部分,我的目標之一是確保我們的員工每天工作結束後都能安全回家。

  • From the attached chart, you can see that our safety performance has improved over the last 12 months. One of my goals as CEO is to ensure that this trend continues to improve. While we may never be the largest agricultural company, I will strive to make us one of the safest.

    從附圖中您可以看到,我們的安全性能在過去 12 個月中有所提升。作為首席執行官,我的目標之一就是確保這一趨勢持續改善。雖然我們可能永遠不會成為最大的農業公司,但我會努力使我們成為最安全的農業公司之一。

  • Now turning to the full year 2024 results. To be able to compare our 24 results with previous periods, I will reference adjusted numbers. American Vanguard generated approximately $42 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2024 within the range of we previously communicated of $40million to $50 million.

    現在來看看 2024 年全年業績。為了能夠將我們的 24 個結果與先前的時期進行比較,我將參考調整後的數字。美國先鋒集團 2024 年的調整後 EBITDA 約為 4,200 萬美元,處於我們先前預期的 4,000 萬美元至 5,000 萬美元範圍內。

  • Adjusted revenue was approximately $563 million slightly below our target of $565 million to $580 million. We acknowledge that in the past, American Vanguard has had a history of missing its targets, but going forward, we want to be a company that sets achievable goals and consistently meets or exceeds these benchmarks.

    調整後的營收約為 5.63 億美元,略低於我們的目標 5.65 億美元至 5.8 億美元。我們承認,美國先鋒集團過去曾未能實現其目標,但展望未來,我們希望成為一家設定可實現目標並始終達到或超過這些基準的公司。

  • That is a commitment we want to make to our stakeholders, our customers, regulators, employees and shareholders, and all other constituents. While we are pleased to have achieved our 2024 EBITDA target, the result is just the starting point for what is possible at this company, in my opinion. With an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.5% in 2024, we would view this level of profitability as being approximately half of what our full cycle earnings power can be.

    這是我們對我們的利害關係人、客戶、監管機構、員工、股東以及所有其他成員所做的承諾。雖然我們很高興實現了 2024 年 EBITDA 目標,但我認為,這個結果只是這家公司未來發展的起點。2024 年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 7.5%,我們認為這一獲利水準約為我們全週期獲利能力的一半。

  • On a percentage basis, we believe that we can achieve double-digit EBITDA growth over the next three to four years as we simplify, prioritize, and deliver. This is a matter that I have been repeating since the first day I joined the company and will continue to repeat for the foreseeable future.

    從百分比來看,我們相信,透過簡化、確定優先順序和交付,我們可以在未來三到四年內實現兩位數的 EBITDA 成長。這是我從加入公司第一天起就不斷重複的事情,在可預見的未來還會繼續重複。

  • For a relatively small business, I have noticed a significant amount of complexity, and I believe that simplifying many of the things we do will allow us to better understand what is important and be able to deliver against the highest priority task.

    對於一家相對較小的企業,我注意到了相當多的複雜性,我相信簡化我們所做的許多事情將使我們能夠更好地理解什麼是重要的,並能夠完成最高優先事項的任務。

  • The Board of Directors has taken the right initial steps to fix the business over the past seven to eight months. Exiting SIMPAS, cutting costs and looking to install an ERP system were the right initial steps to fix the business. I had a deep understanding of what the Board was looking to accomplish before I joined the company, but I believe the transformation plan was a starting point for what is possible, not the ultimate destination.

    過去七、八個月,董事會已採取正確的初步措施來修復業務。退出 SIMPAS、削減成本並尋求安裝 ERP 系統是修復業務的正確初步步驟。在我加入公司之前,我對董事會想要實現的目標有著深刻的理解,但我相信轉型計畫是一個可能的起點,而不是最終目的地。

  • I don't think anything revolutionary is necessary to improve upon the business transformation that is well underway. But deploying modern management techniques that I've implemented in several prior positions should build upon the targets that we've already established.

    我認為不需要任何革命性的東西來改善正在進行的業務轉型。但是,部署我在之前的幾個職位上實施過的現代管理技術應該建立在我們已經設定的目標之上。

  • Before I turn the call over to David, I can provide some details on what we are seeing in the farm economy. Since taking this role, I have met with many of our largest customers with whom I've had long-standing relationships.

    在我將電話轉給大衛之前,我可以提供一些我們所看到的農業經濟狀況的細節。自從擔任這項職務以來,我已經與許多與我們有著長期合作關係的最大客戶會面。

  • These customers are indicating that the slight improvement in the sentiment since the low points experienced in the summer of 2024 has created a more positive environment amongst growers. But they remain conservative in their buying patterns after enduring the recent cyclical downturn and facing the uncertainty of continuing high cost of capital and now the specter of increasing tariffs.

    這些客戶表示,自 2024 年夏季經歷低谷以來,情緒略有改善,為種植者創造了更積極的環境。但在經歷了最近的周期性衰退、面臨持續高昂的資本成本和現在的關稅上調威脅之後,他們的購買模式仍然保守。

  • It seems the channel is purchasing in season instead of ahead of the season as we have seen historically. It does not appear that customers are looking to rebuild inventories which have largely been depleted. Instead, they're buying just in time for the season.

    看起來該管道是在按季節進行採購,而不是像我們過去看到的那樣提前進行採購。看起來客戶並不希望補充已經基本耗盡的庫存。相反,他們只是在旺季時才購買。

  • I firmly believe that 2025 will be better than 2024, but the improvement will be gradual, and the interest rate environment coupled with the uncertainty of potential tariffs will lead to farmers remaining cautious for some time. Taking into consideration these factors for 2025, we have an adjusted EBITDA target range of $45 million to $52 million and expect sales to fall in the range of $565 million to $585 million.

    我堅信 2025 年的情況會比 2024 年更好,但這種改善將是漸進的,利率環境加上潛在關稅的不確定性將導致農民在一段時間內保持謹慎。考慮到這些因素,對於 2025 年而言,我們調整後的 EBITDA 目標範圍為 4,500 萬美元至 5,200 萬美元,預計銷售額將在 5.65 億美元至 5.85 億美元之間。

  • We expect CapEx of approximately $10 million for 2025. So free cash flow should be meaningful, which we will allocate towards the paydown of debt. As we continue to transform this business, we believe that future margins will continue to improve, and we believe there will be further margin enhancement in 2026 and beyond.

    我們預計 2025 年的資本支出約為 1000 萬美元。因此自由現金流應該是有意義的,我們將把它分配給償還債務。隨著我們不斷轉型這項業務,我們相信未來的利潤率將繼續提高,我們相信2026年及以後的利潤率將進一步提高。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to David to discuss financial resources before returning for my closing remarks.

    現在我將把電話轉給戴維討論財務資源,然後再回來做我的結束語。

  • David Johnson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Treasurer

    David Johnson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Dak. Good morning, everyone. Turning to our financial performance. I'd like to reiterate that our comments today are based on unaudited numbers.

    謝謝你,達克。大家早安。談到我們的財務表現。我想重申,我們今天的評論是基於未經審計的數據。

  • Our fourth quarter revenues were approximately $169 million. A decrease of 2% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. And our adjusted EBITDA was approximately $18 million, a decrease of 18% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

    我們第四季的營收約為 1.69 億美元。與2023年第四季相比下降了2%。我們的調整後 EBITDA 約為 1800 萬美元,與 2023 年第四季相比下降了 18%。

  • During the fourth quarter we were able to pay down $22 million in debt. In addition, the company is focused on improving its balance sheet, and we are pleased to be able to report that inventories ended at approximately $180 million, which included some write downs for obsolescence and slow moving.

    在第四季度,我們償還了 2,200 萬美元的債務。此外,該公司專注於改善其資產負債表,我們很高興地報告,庫存最終約為 1.8 億美元,其中包括一些因過時和滯銷而產生的減值。

  • In 2025, the bulk of the free cash flow we generate will be allocated towards paying down debt. For the full year 2024, the company recorded adjusted revenues of approximately $563 million, a decrease of approximately 3% as compared to 2023. This excludes the credits we recorded to withdraw Dacthal from the market.

    2025 年,我們產生的大部分自由現金流將用於償還債務。2024 年全年,該公司調整後營收約 5.63 億美元,較 2023 年下降約 3%。這還不包括我們為從市場上撤回 Dacthal 而記錄的信用額。

  • Our reported revenues will be approximately $550 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $42 million as compared to $53 million in the prior period. We continue to make progress in our effort to drive down inventory. Before asset write downs, we decreased our inventory by approximately $47 million during the quarter, but slightly missed our inventory to sales target of 34%.

    我們的報告收入約為 5.5 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 4,200 萬美元,而上一期間為 5,300 萬美元。我們在降低庫存的努力中繼續取得進展。在資產減記之前,我們在本季減少了約 4,700 萬美元的庫存,但略微未達到 34% 的庫存與銷售目標。

  • While we had previously targeted inventory to sales, we are now adjusting this target to inventory terms as we believe this more closely aligns with the goals of the business. Our average inventory returns for 2024 ended at 1.67 on an adjusted basis, and we should be able to push this metric towards about two turns by year end 2025.

    雖然我們之前將庫存目標設定為銷售額,但現在我們將此目標調整為庫存條件,因為我們認為這更符合業務目標。我們 2024 年的平均庫存回報率經調整後為 1.67,到 2025 年底,我們應該能夠將此指標推向約兩倍。

  • I would also like to mention that we received an amendment to our credit facility. For over 35 years, BMO and its predecessors have shown continued support for our business. We appreciate the vote of confidence they are showing in our transformation work. With our credit facility expiring in August of 2026, we aim to announce a new facility in the summer of this year.

    我還想提一下,我們收到了我們的信貸安排的修改。35 年來,BMO 及其前身持續支持我們的業務。我們感謝他們對我們的轉型工作所展現的信任。我們的信貸安排將於 2026 年 8 月到期,我們計劃在今年夏天宣布一項新的信貸安排。

  • Let's discuss the one-time charges that impacted our performance. In total for calendar year 2024, we have recorded $118 million of non-recurring charges. The magnitude of these charges highlights the amount of work that was necessary to reposition American bank data.

    讓我們討論一下影響我們業績的一次性費用。2024 年曆年,我們共記錄了 1.18 億美元的非經常性費用。這些指控的規模凸顯了重新定位美國銀行資料所需的工作量。

  • The one-time charges fall into two categories asset impairments and transformation projects. We had approximately $76 million in asset impairments during the fourth quarter, consisting of the SIMPAS write down, which was approximately $22.4 million a goodwill write down which was approximately $27 million, the write down of slow moving and obsolete inventories, which was approximately $20 million, and the write down of a previous investment and other assets.

    一次性費用分為兩類:資產減損和轉型專案。我們在第四季度的資產減損約為 7,600 萬美元,其中包括 SIMPAS 減損(約 2,240 萬美元)、商譽減損(約 2,700 萬美元)、滯銷和過時庫存減損(約 2,000 萬美元)以及先前投資和其他資產的減損。

  • We had smaller transformation charges during the fourth quarter related to our transformation consultant, Kearney, and our organization redesign. These expenses and the write downs are substantial, but they position American Vanguard for improved profitability and growth over the coming quarters. I would be happy to answer further questions about these charges in our Q&A.

    第四季度,與我們的轉型顧問科爾尼和組織重新設計相關的轉型費用較少。這些費用和減損金額相當可觀,但它們將使美國先鋒在未來幾季提高獲利能力和成長。我很樂意在問答環節回答更多有關這些指控的問題。

  • Finally, I would like to mention the delay in our financial filing with a number of somewhat complicated assessments required related to the write downs, especially goodwill that we have addressed in the fourth quarter. We will end up filing our 10-K after the statutory deadline and consequently we will be filing a 12b-25 with the SEC. We are working with our auditors in an effort to complete the open items with a view to filing the 10-K as soon as possible.

    最後,我想提一下我們的財務報告被推遲了,因為需要進行一些與減損有關的比較複雜的評估,特別是我們在第四季度處理的商譽減損。我們將在法定期限之後提交 10-K 表,因此我們將向美國證券交易委員會提交 12b-25 表。我們正在與審計師合作,努力完成未結項目,以便盡快提交 10-K 報表。

  • With that, I would like to turn the call back to Dak.

    說完這些,我想把電話轉回給達克。

  • Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, David. Before we wrap things up, I would like to acknowledge two new members of our team and one promotion. We have recently hired Mike DiPaola as Senior Vice President of Strategy and R&D; and Jared Straley as Senior Vice President, Operations and Supply Chain. We also recently promoted Nolteanous Gilliam to Senior Vice President, Manufacturing.

    謝謝你,大衛。在我們結束之前,我想對我們團隊的兩位新成員和一位晉升表示感謝。我們最近聘請了 Mike DiPaola 擔任策略和研發高級副總裁;並任命 Jared Straley 為營運和供應鏈高級副總裁。我們最近也將 Nolteanous Gilliam 晉升為製造資深副總裁。

  • Mike and Jared were hired to bring a skill set to American Vanguard that was missing, while Nolteanous is getting a well-earned promotion from within. I'm excited to have all three reporting directly to me, and over time I look forward to introducing them to the investment community, and I'm sure you'll be as impressed with them as I am.

    麥克和賈里德被聘用,為美國先鋒隊帶來所缺少的技能,而諾爾蒂諾斯則從內部獲得了應得的晉升。我很高興這三位高階主管都直接向我報告工作,隨著時間的推移,我期待著將他們介紹給投資界,我相信你們也會像我一樣對他們印象深刻。

  • Looking forward to 2025, as we stated earlier, the agricultural economy is gradually improving and we're making steady progress with our business transformation. We've analysed the ongoing tariff situation and believe it will have a nominal impact on our raw material costs with less than $3 million EBITDA impact if tariffs remain in place for a full year.

    展望2025年,正如我們剛才所說,農業經濟正在逐步好轉,我們的業務轉型也穩步推進。我們分析了當前的關稅形勢,並認為如果關稅持續一整年,它將對我們的原材料成本產生名義上的影響,對 EBITDA 的影響將不到 300 萬美元。

  • Given the fluid nature of the situation, it is too early to tell how this may impact growers, but we are in a constant contact with our customers as we gauge how they're reacting to these developments. We have the capability to improve our profitability through our business transformation, and we look forward to even stronger results in the future periods driven by initiatives that are within our control.

    鑑於情況的變化,現在判斷這將如何影響種植者還為時過早,但我們會與客戶保持密切聯繫,以了解他們對這些事態發展的反應。我們有能力透過業務轉型來提高獲利能力,並且我們期待在未來的時期內,透過我們能夠控制的舉措,取得更強勁的業績。

  • Before closing the call, I would like to say that I am more excited today than when I originally joined the company. I have seen a lot of opportunities to improve and modernize the company to drive improving results. As we look forward to 2025, our goals are straightforward.

    在結束通話之前,我想說,今天我比剛加入公司時更興奮。我看到了很多改善和現代化公司以推動業績提升的機會。展望 2025 年,我們的目標很簡單。

  • Operating our manufacturing facilities as safely and as sufficiently as possible, achieve the financial targets that we have provided. Further trans into a company that can consistently generate free cash flow to match the resilient revenue it already generates. And right size and strengthen the balance sheet, which will entail decreasing net working capital and paying down debt.

    盡可能安全、充分地營運我們的製造設施,實現我們設定的財務目標。進一步轉變為一家能夠持續產生自由現金流以匹配其已經產生的彈性收入的公司。並適當調整和加強資產負債表,這將需要減少淨營運資本和償還債務。

  • As we achieve these near term benchmarks, we will be moving towards our longer term goal of becoming the trusted provider of proven agricultural and environmental solutions.

    當我們實現這些短期基準時,我們將朝著我們的長期目標邁進,成為值得信賴的成熟農業和環境解決方案提供者。

  • With that, we will open the floor for questions. Operator?

    接下來,我們將開始回答問題。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Ben Klieve, Lake Street Capital.

    本‧克萊夫 (Ben Klieve),Lake Street Capital。

  • Ben Klieve - Analyst

    Ben Klieve - Analyst

  • All right, thanks for taking my questions. First question around the preliminary nature of the earnings release. You noted in the prepared remarks that this would get done as soon as possible. I'm wondering if you can first of all help kind of characterize your expectations for timing?

    好的,感謝您回答我的問題。第一個問題是關於收益發布的初步性質。您在準備好的發言中指出,這將盡快完成。我想知道您是否可以先描述一下您對時間的期望?

  • And then second of all, it sounded like the reasoning behind this was just purely a function of just a more kind of complex dynamic around the series of write downs rather than anything that was necessarily surprising or concerning. I just want to confirm that, that's the takeaway that we should have here for the for the reason behind the preliminary nature.

    其次,聽起來這背後的原因只是一系列減記周圍更複雜的動態的一個功能,而不是任何必然令人驚訝或擔憂的事情。我只是想確認一下,這是我們應該在這裡得到的結論,因為這是初步性質的原因。

  • Timothy J. Donnelly - Chief Information Officer, General Counsel and Secretary

    Timothy J. Donnelly - Chief Information Officer, General Counsel and Secretary

  • Yeah, I think that's a fair assessment. It's a little difficult for me to say exactly when in the next week or so that we'll file, but we're working as hard as we can with our auditors to finish off all the procedures.

    是的,我認為這是一個公平的評價。我很難確切地說出我們將在下週左右的什麼時候提交文件,但我們正在與審計人員一起盡最大努力完成所有程序。

  • Ben Klieve - Analyst

    Ben Klieve - Analyst

  • Okay, but you're looking at days or weeks, not months.

    好的,但你看的是幾天或幾週,而不是幾個月。

  • Timothy J. Donnelly - Chief Information Officer, General Counsel and Secretary

    Timothy J. Donnelly - Chief Information Officer, General Counsel and Secretary

  • Oh, certainly. Yeah.

    噢,當然了。是的。

  • Ben Klieve - Analyst

    Ben Klieve - Analyst

  • Okay, perfect. Very good. The great job on the balance sheet here in the second half of the year and appreciated your comments on inventory turnover expectations for '25. I'm wondering if you can further elaborate on how much you think you could potentially still get out of working capital in 2025, given how much progress was made in '24?

    好的,完美。非常好。下半年的資產負債表做得很好,感謝您對 25 年庫存週轉率預期的評論。我想知道您是否可以進一步詳細說明,考慮到 24 年的巨大進展,您認為 2025 年您還能從營運資金中獲得多少收益?

  • Outside of inventory, do you expect any other working capital, net inflows or do you think that's going to be, kind of a more static number in '25?

    除了庫存之外,您是否預計會有其他營運資金、淨流入,或者您認為在 25 年這將是一個更靜態的數字?

  • Timothy J. Donnelly - Chief Information Officer, General Counsel and Secretary

    Timothy J. Donnelly - Chief Information Officer, General Counsel and Secretary

  • Inventory is certainly our high focus item. It's the one that we see as the greatest opportunity to moving working capital down. So yeah, we're highly focused on it. We've got a newly refreshed version of our SIOP model, and as Dak mentioned earlier, we've got Jared has joined and he's going to be leading that process. It's a focus that we haven't had before.

    庫存當然是我們重點關注的項目。我們認為這是降低營運資本的最大機會。是的,我們非常關注這一點。我們有了一個全新版本的 SIOP 模型,正如 Dak 之前提到的,Jared 已經加入,他將領導這一過程。這是我們以前從未關注過的。

  • Ben Klieve - Analyst

    Ben Klieve - Analyst

  • Very good. Dak, question for you. You noted the kind of -- the complexity of the organization. And some -- how you're looking to improve that dynamic. Can you talk about kind of the steps that are needed to improve the complexity? How much of the complexity will be addressed, you think by, a modernized ERP system versus larger structural or organizational change that needs to take place? Yeah, I guess that's my first question.

    非常好。達克,我問你一個問題。您注意到了該組織的複雜性。還有一些—您希望如何改善這種動態。您能談談改善複雜性需要採取哪些步驟嗎?您認為,現代化的 ERP 系統與需要進行的更大規模的結構或組織變革相比,能夠解決多少複雜性?是的,我想這是我的第一個問題。

  • Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Ben. Yeah, so it was extremely complex when I came in. It was on the path from an organizational restructuring with the Kearney transformation plan. So there was a lot of work done through in 2024. We finalized that plan, that organizational plan, which simplified the structure so that we had some accountability and responsibility and the functions.

    謝謝,本。是的,當我進來的時候情況極為複雜。它正按照科爾尼轉型計劃進行組織重組。因此,到 2024 年還有很多工作要做。我們最終確定了該計劃,即組織計劃,它簡化了結構,以便我們擁有一些問責、責任和職能。

  • I think that was the first necessary step to get the organization accountable and also at the same time reduce some of that complexity in the organization to identify who's responsible for what. The ERP system absolutely help us reduce the complexity, the flow of information will be a tremendous improvement over the next 2025.

    我認為這是讓組織承擔責任的第一步,同時也可以減少組織中的一些複雜性,以確定誰負責什麼。ERP系統絕對可以幫助我們降低複雜性,到2025年資訊流將有巨大的改善。

  • So the ERP system will greatly enhance or simplify, I would say, the transfer of information around the organization. The other items I would say they're on the simplifying is the SIOP process, along with the ERP system implementation of the SIOP or reimplementation I'd say, that will greatly improve our efficiencies and managing inventory, and procurement.

    因此,我認為 ERP 系統將大大增強或簡化組織內的資訊傳輸。我想說他們正在簡化的其他項目是 SIOP 流程,以及 ERP 系統實施 SIOP 或重新實施,這將極大地提高我們的效率和管理庫存以及採購。

  • So there's a simplification there and I also would say as we refocus the business on growing our portfolio organically, a stage gate process of managing product -- new product development will simplify that process as well. So there are a lot of things ongoing inside the business today that will create that simplification and prioritization and allow us to deliver as well.

    因此這是一個簡化過程,我還想說,當我們重新將業務重點放在有機地擴大我們的產品組合上時,管理產品的階段門流程——新產品開發也將簡化該流程。因此,今天公司內部正在進行許多工作,這些工作將實現簡化和優先化,並使我們能夠順利完成任務。

  • Ben Klieve - Analyst

    Ben Klieve - Analyst

  • Great. I'm looking forward to hearing progress on that throughout this year. Last one for me and then I'll get back in queue. You've flagged tariffs in multiple manners. Appreciated that the impact on raw materials would be pretty negligible as we understand the tariff situation to be today.

    偉大的。我期待今年聽到這方面的進展。對我來說這是最後一個,然後我會回到隊列中。您已透過多種方式標記了關稅。根據我們了解的今天的關稅情況,我們很高興知道對原材料的影響相當小。

  • But I'm curious, your comments on revenue guidance in the cautionary note you have regarding tariffs. How are you seeing farmer buying patterns impacted by this uncertainty? Is it a function of them just really wanting to have a just in time kind of approach to buying crop protection products?

    但我很好奇,您對關稅警告中的收入指導有何評論。您如何看待這種不確定性對農民購買模式的影響?他們是否真的想以及時的方式購買農作物保護產品?

  • Are they, really concerned about kind of the trade dynamics as a fallout of this and not having end buyers for their harvested grain? What really are farmers looking at in the context of tariffs right now that are impacting your guidance?

    他們是否真的擔心貿易動態會因此受到影響,導致收穫的糧食沒有最終買家?目前,農民在關稅方面真正關注的是什麼,從而影響了您的指導?

  • Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

  • Absolutely. I mean, uncertainty in any business creates uncertainty. So that's what we're seeing around the tariffs right now. As you mentioned, I don't believe that the tariff impact on our raw materials is material in nature, around $3 million for 2025.

    絕對地。我的意思是,任何業務中的不確定性都會產生不確定性。這就是我們現在看到的關稅情況。正如您所說,我認為關稅對我們原材料的影響並不是實質性的,到 2025 年約為 300 萬美元。

  • When we're talking to our customers, who are the distributors or distribution in the channel, they're relatively positive about the change from '24 to '25 in the ag industry. But growers are being cautious around this because of the impending tariff implications, not necessarily on their underlying costs, but as you mentioned the potential -- the reciprocal tariffs on their commodity products.

    當我們與客戶(即分銷商或通路分銷商)交談時,他們對農業產業從 24 年到 25 年的變化持相對積極的態度。但種植者對此持謹慎態度,因為即將實施的關稅影響不一定是其潛在成本,而是正如您所提到的,對其商品徵收的互惠關稅。

  • So that's the concern there, but we do have a feel that the 2025 will be better than '24. That's a pretty positive indication in the marketplace. If we can get through these tariff issues, I think it'll be a very good year for 2025.

    這就是人們所擔心的問題,但我們確實覺得 2025 年會比 2024 年更好。這對市場來說是一個非常積極的跡象。如果我們能夠解決這些關稅問題,我認為 2025 年將會是非常好的一年。

  • Ben Klieve - Analyst

    Ben Klieve - Analyst

  • Very good. Well, I appreciate you guys taking my questions. Best of luck here, with all these ongoing initiatives. I'll get back into queue.

    非常好。好吧,我很感謝你們回答我的問題。祝所有這些正在進行的計劃一切順利。我會回到隊列。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Harrison, Seaport Research Partners.

    麥克·哈里森,海港研究夥伴。

  • Mike Harrison - Analyst

    Mike Harrison - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Was hoping just kind of piggybacking off the last response to the last question there. In terms of channel inventories in the marketplace, can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in your key regions?

    嗨,早安。感謝您回答我的問題。希望能夠利用最後一個問題的最後一個答案。就市場通路庫存而言,您能否談談您在主要地區看到的情況?

  • Are there still areas where distributors feel like they have elevated channel inventory and they're continuing to pull back on purchases? Or have you seen some improvements either broadly or in specific regions?

    分銷商是否仍感覺到某些地區的通路庫存過高,因此繼續減少採購?或者您是否看到了大範圍或特定區域的某些改進?

  • Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Mike, this is Dak. Thanks for the question and it's a good follow-up question to finish up on Ben's question. The channel inventories, we do see those down considerably in the US and around the world, they are down. And then we hear that from our customers. The issue is that the cost of capital now, the channel seems to have gone to just-in-time servicing of the products by the grower -- for the growers, so that we see an adjust in time now.

    是的,麥克,這是達克。感謝您的提問,這是一個很好的後續問題,可以回答 Ben 的問題。我們確實看到美國和世界各地的渠道庫存大幅下降。然後我們從客戶那裡聽說了這一點。問題是,現在的資本成本,通路似乎已經轉向由種植者為種植者提供及時的產品服務,所以我們現在看到了及時的調整。

  • So there's not a real indication of restocking as they were in previous years before the downturn. So it's more of the channels have destocked, but the restocking is not going back to the levels that they were pre 2023. But we are seeing favourable conditions in the marketplace as the growers and distributors are purchasing, but just in time for the season.

    因此,目前還沒有出現像前幾年經濟衰退之前那樣真正補充庫存的跡象。因此,更多的通路已經去庫存了,但補貨量不會回到 2023 年之前的水準。但我們看到市場條件良好,因為種植者和分銷商正在採購,而且正好趕上季節。

  • Mike Harrison - Analyst

    Mike Harrison - Analyst

  • Got it. And then a couple of questions on margins. You talked about the 7.5% EBITDA margin that you did for the full year 2024 being about half of the earnings potential or that earnings power over the cycle. Can you just help bridge, how you guys would expect to get to a mid-teens EBITDA margin?

    知道了。然後是幾個關於利潤的問題。您談到了 2024 年全年 7.5% 的 EBITDA 利潤率,這大約是整個週期盈利潛力或盈利能力的一半。您能否幫忙解釋一下,你們希望如何實現十幾歲的 EBITDA 利潤率?

  • How much of that is kind of volume recovery and operating leverage? How much is related to the ongoing business transformation? And I guess are there any other key pieces or key drivers of margin improvement over time?

    其中有多少是銷售恢復和經營槓桿?有多少與正在進行的業務轉型有關?我想問一下,隨著時間的推移,還有其他關鍵因素或關鍵驅動因素可以提高利潤率嗎?

  • Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, good question. And the way we envision it, we'll have the transformation process that we've got ongoing with the commercial activities, that's one component of it.

    是的,好問題。按照我們的設想,我們將在商業活動中持續推進轉型過程,這是其中的一個組成部分。

  • And I figured that around 3%, we can go from 29% to say 32% gross margins on products, on sales. That will be -- that will get us a portion of the way. The rest of the way, roughly we need to come down from that OpEx as a percentage of sales of 26% to low 20%s to around 20% is what I would say. Some kind of mix of those two.

    我認為,透過 3% 左右的增幅,我們可以將產品和銷售的毛利率從 29% 提高到 32%。這會 — — 這會讓我們取得部分進展。剩下的部分,我想說,我們大概需要將營運支出佔銷售額的百分比從 26% 降至 20% 以下,再降至 20% 左右。這兩者的某種混合。

  • The OpEx is being addressed ongoing with not only the transformation, reorganization process, but also administering cost cutting strategies as well and initiatives as well. But the 7.5%-plus the gross margin plus the OpEx reduction should get us in those mid-teens full cycle.

    我們正在持續解決營運支出問題,不僅包括轉型和重組過程,還包括管理成本削減策略和措施。但 7.5% 以上的毛利率加上營運成本的減少應該會讓我們進入十幾歲的完整週期。

  • Mike Harrison - Analyst

    Mike Harrison - Analyst

  • All right. Very helpful. And then, just in terms of trying to understand the earnings cadence for 2025. At the midpoint, your guidance is, call it 8.5% EBITDA margin. You're coming off the Q4 where you get closer to 10.5%.

    好的。非常有幫助。然後,我們嘗試了解 2025 年的獲利節奏。在中間點,您的指導是,稱之為 8.5% EBITDA 利潤率。你們剛結束了第四季度,現在的成長率已經接近 10.5%。

  • So just kind of curious, should we expect the EBITDA margin to kind of start lower in the first half and then show improvement and momentum maybe even getting further into the double digits in the second half? Just kind of what are your thoughts on margin and earnings cadence this year?

    所以只是有點好奇,我們是否應該預期 EBITDA 利潤率會在上半年開始下降,然後在下半年顯示出改善和勢頭,甚至可能進一步達到兩位數?您對今年的利潤率和獲利節奏有何看法?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

  • Great question. Yes, we are seeing the second half of the year be more positive in the EBITDA margin. So we anticipate the Q1 and Q2 being lower in that respect. And the Q4 has always been a strong quarter for us, and we're seeing that -- projecting that this for 2025 as well. So H2, the second half of the year will be more positive than the first half of the year.

    好問題。是的,我們看到下半年的 EBITDA 利潤率會更加積極。因此,我們預計第一季和第二季的成長速度會較低。第四季對我們來說一直是一個強勁的季度,我們看到了這一點——預計 2025 年也將如此。因此,下半年的情況將比上半年更加積極。

  • Mike Harrison - Analyst

    Mike Harrison - Analyst

  • All right, thanks very much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Wayne Pinsent, Gabelli Funds.

    韋恩·平森特(Wayne Pinsent),加貝利基金(Gabelli Funds)。

  • Wayne Pinsent - Analyst

    Wayne Pinsent - Analyst

  • Hi, Dak. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats again on your first call as CEO.

    你好,達克。感謝您回答我的問題。再次恭喜您首次擔任執行長。

  • Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Wayne.

    謝謝你,韋恩。

  • Wayne Pinsent - Analyst

    Wayne Pinsent - Analyst

  • Just wanted to piggyback on that question. Just given everything that's going on in the industry and specifically at the company over the past couple of years, can you just further speak to your confidence in the 2025 guide? And what could take you to the upper and lower ends of the range?

    我只是想順便回答一下這個問題。考慮到過去幾年行業以及公司發生的一切,您能否進一步談談您對 2025 年指南的信心?那麼什麼可以讓你達到該範圍的上限和下限呢?

  • Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

  • I think, it's a good question, Wayne. Thank you. The lower range would be something slower than -- in the ag industry slower than 2024. And the upper end would be a positive influence on 2025 and the ag industry, there would be lack of the -- it'd be more positive and from the purchasing of the -- from the growers, but we anticipate that the lower end of the range would be something negative, I would say, in reflection as compared to 2024. So we anticipate doing better than 2024 in nearly all cases.

    我認為這是一個好問題,韋恩。謝謝。農業產業的下限會比 2024 年慢一些。而上限將對 2025 年和農業行業產生積極影響,將會缺乏 - 這將更加積極,來自種植者的購買,但我們預計該範圍的下限將產生負面影響,我想說,與 2024 年相比。因此,我們預計幾乎所有情況下的表現都會比 2024 年更好。

  • Wayne Pinsent - Analyst

    Wayne Pinsent - Analyst

  • Okay. And then you mentioned a few of the things you're working on and the transformation plan being a starting point. Is there anything substantial that you're going to be doing in 2024? And can you quantify if there's any further substantial transformation costs in 2024 -- in 2025, sorry?

    好的。然後您提到了您正在做的一些事情以及作為起點的轉型計劃。2024 年您有什麼實質的計畫嗎?您能否量化 2024 年到 2025 年是否還會產生任何進一步的實質轉型成本?

  • Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So from the transformation costs will not be substantial. We've got those projected at around $5 million for 2025, so way down from 2024. The largest pickups in 2025 from the transformation will be around the commercial activities.

    是的。所以從改造成本來說不會很大。我們預計 2025 年這一數字將達到 500 萬美元左右,遠低於 2024 年的數字。2025 年轉型中最大的收穫將圍繞著商業活動。

  • We expect $4 million to $5 million around those. And then also in logistics and procurement, another $2 million to $3 million. And then there's also some organizational pickups as well around $2 million. So it get us around $8 million to $10 million of transformation benefits in 2025.

    我們預計這些數字約為 400 萬至 500 萬美元。然後還有物流採購的支出,200萬到300萬美元。另外還有一些組織的收入,大約 200 萬美元。因此,到 2025 年,我們將獲得約 800 萬至 1,000 萬美元的轉型收益。

  • Wayne Pinsent - Analyst

    Wayne Pinsent - Analyst

  • Okay, great, thank you very much.

    好的,太好了,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. As we have no further questions online at this time, I would like to hand it back over to Mr. Kaye for his closing remarks.

    謝謝。由於我們目前在線上沒有其他問題,我想將發言權交還給凱伊先生,請他作最後發言。

  • Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas A. (Dak) Kaye - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, operator. I'd like to conclude by thanking everyone for listening and participating in our call today. I look forward to providing further updates on our ongoing initiatives and value your questions and support as we strive for the long term success and growth of the company.

    謝謝您,接線生。最後,我要感謝大家聆聽並參與我們今天的電話會議。我期待提供有關我們正在進行的計劃的進一步更新,並重視您的問題和支持,因為我們致力於公司的長期成功和發展。

  • These interactions give us an opportunity to think in a disciplined way about how we are assessing our recent past performance and our prospects. And also to hear from you about what's on your mind and maybe the gaps in what we've explained to you and how we can better respond. We are committed to maintaining transparency and open communication, so please feel free to contact us if you have any questions or need further information.

    這些互動使我們有機會以嚴謹的方式思考如何評估我們近期的表現和前景。同時也想聽聽你們的想法,了解我們向你們解釋的內容中可能存在的差距,以及我們如何能更好地應對。我們致力於保持透明度和開放的溝通,因此如果您有任何疑問或需要更多信息,請隨時與我們聯繫。

  • Hope to meet and see some of you in person in the near future. I'll be traveling to New York City next week to participate in the 16th Annual Specialty Chemical Symposium hosted by Gabelli Funds, and perhaps I will have the chance to meet you -- meet some of you there.

    希望在不久的將來能親自見到你們中的一些人。下週我將前往紐約參加由 Gabelli Funds 主辦的第 16 屆年度特種化學品研討會,也許我有機會在那裡見到你們——見到你們中的一些人。

  • Importantly, as I stated earlier, I don't think anything revolutionary is necessary to execute and improve upon the business transformation that is underway at American Vanguard. My mantra is straightforward in this regard simplify, prioritize, and deliver.

    重要的是,正如我之前所說,我認為不需要任何革命性的東西來執行和改進美國先鋒正在進行的業務轉型。在這方面,我的口頭禪很簡單:簡化、優先考慮、交付。

  • Thank you again for the participation, and we look forward to reporting our first quarter 2025 results to you in May. Thank you.

    再次感謝您的參與,我們期待在五月向您報告2025年第一季的業績。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude today's call. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路,感謝您的參與。