Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Grupo Aval's first-quarter 2025 consolidated results conference call. My name is Rob, and I will be your operator for today's call. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States. As such, it is subject to compliance with securities regulations in Colombia and applicable US securities regulation. Grupo Aval is also subject to the inspection and supervision of the Superintendency of Finance as holding company of the Aval Financial conglomerate.

歡迎參加 Grupo Aval 2025 年第一季綜合業績電話會議。我叫羅布，今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA 是哥倫比亞和美國的證券發行人。因此，它必須遵守哥倫比亞的證券法規和適用的美國證券法規。作為 Aval Financial 集團的控股公司，Grupo Aval 也受到金融監理局的檢查和監督。

The consolidated financial information included in this document is presented in accordance with IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Unconsolidated financial information of our subsidiaries in the Colombian banking system are presented in accordance with the Colombian IFRS as reported by the Superintendency of Finance. Details of the calculations of non-IFRS measures such as ROAA and ROAE, among others, are explained when required in this report.

本文件中所包含的合併財務資訊是根據國際會計準則理事會目前發布的國際財務報告準則呈現的。我們在哥倫比亞銀行系統中的子公司的非合併財務資訊是根據金融監理局報告的哥倫比亞國際財務報告準則呈現的。本報告在需要時解釋了非國際財務報告準則指標（例如 ROAA 和 ROAE 等）的計算細節。

This report includes forward-looking statements. In some cases, you may identify these forward-looking statements by words such as may, will, should, expects, plans, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential or continue or the negative of these and other comparable words. Actual results and events may differ materially from those anticipated herein as a consequence of changes in general, economic and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates and other risks described from time to time in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC.

本報告包含前瞻性陳述。在某些情況下，您可以透過諸如可能、將、應該、預期、計劃、預期、相信、估計、預測、潛在或繼續等詞語或這些詞語和其他類似詞語的否定形式來識別這些前瞻性陳述。由於總體經濟和商業狀況的變化、利率和匯率的變化以及我們向國家稅務局和證券交易委員會提交的文件中不時描述的其他風險，實際結果和事件可能與本文預期的結果和事件存在重大差異。

Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Matters described in this presentation and our knowledge of them may change extensively and materially over time, but we expressly disclaim any obligation to review, update or correct the information provided in this report, including any forward-looking statements, and do not intend to provide any update for such material developments prior to our next earnings report.

本文件的接收者負責評估和使用此處提供的資訊。本簡報中所述的事項以及我們對這些事項的了解可能會隨著時間的推移而發生廣泛而重大的變化，但我們明確表示不承擔審查、更新或更正本報告中提供的資訊（包括任何前瞻性陳述）的任何義務，也不打算在下一份收益報告之前對此類重大發展提供任何更新。

The content of this document and other figures included herein are intended to provide a summary of the subjects discussed rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable in this document, we will refer to billions as thousands of millions. (Operator Instructions) With us today are Ms. Maria Gutierrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Diego Solano, Chief Financial Officer; Mrs. Paula Duran, Corporate VP of Sustainability and Strategic Products; and Mr. Camilo Perez, Banco de Bogota's Chief Economist.

本文檔的內容和其中包含的其他圖表旨在提供所討論主題的摘要，而不是全面的描述。當在本文檔中適用時，我們將十億稱為十億。（操作員指示）今天與我們一起的是首席執行官 Maria Gutierrez Botero 女士； Diego Solano先生，首席財務官；可持續發展和戰略產品公司副總裁 Paula Duran 女士；以及波哥大銀行首席經濟學家卡米洛·佩雷斯先生。

I will now turn the call over to Ms. Maria Gutierrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer. Ms. Maria Gutierrez Botero, you may begin.

現在我將把電話轉給執行長瑪麗亞·古鐵雷斯·博特羅女士。瑪麗亞·古鐵雷斯·博特羅女士，您可以開始。

Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2025 conference call. I am here with Diego Solano, our CFO; Camilo Perez, Chief Economist of Banco de Bogota; and Paula Duran, Corporate VP of Sustainability and Strategic Projects.

非常感謝。大家早安，感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第一季電話會議。我和我們的財務長 Diego Solano 一起在場；卡米洛·佩雷斯 (Camilo Perez)，波哥大銀行首席經濟學家；以及可持續發展和戰略項目公司副總裁 Paula Duran。

I would like to start by highlighting this quarter's results. Our net income was COP362 billion, a 28% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 and 3.2 times that of the first quarter of 2024. We gained market share in deposits and loans, reaching a 25.3% share in loans and reaching 16.6% in mortgages, the highest level of our history. Core business trends evolved positively during the quarter despite a persistent high-interest rate environment and a full performance of the capital market during March.

首先我想強調一下本季的業績。我們的淨收入為 3,620 億哥倫比亞比索，比 2024 年第四季成長 28%，是 2024 年第一季的 3.2 倍。存款和貸款的市佔率均有所提升，貸款市佔率達25.3%，抵押貸款市佔率達16.6%，均創歷史新高。儘管三月利率環境持續高企且資本市場表現強勁，但本季核心業務趨勢仍呈現積極發展。

NIM on loans increased slightly during the quarter. NIM on investment recovered, asset quality continued improving. Our nonfinancial sector was stronger than in the three previous quarters and OpEx remained under control. During the quarter, NIM on retail loans of our banking services segment reached the highest level in two years.

本季貸款淨利差略有增加。投資淨利差回升，資產品質持續改善。我們的非金融部門表現強於前三個季度，且營運支出仍受到控制。本季度，我們銀行服務部門的零售貸款淨利差達到兩年來的最高水準。

However, total NIM on loans remained flat due to pressures on commercial loans from a strong price competition in the corporate segment. Even though our profitability continues to increase, the pace of improvement was slightly slower than initially anticipated, explained by a lower-than-expected NIM on investments due to the poor performance of local fixed income.

然而，由於企業部門激烈的價格競爭對商業貸款造成壓力，貸款淨利差總額保持穩定。儘管我們的獲利能力持續提高，但改善的速度略低於最初的預期，這是因為當地固定收益表現不佳導致投資淨利差低於預期。

A deterioration of the country's fiscal outlook and the resignation of the Minister of Finance affected the local markets during the second half of the quarter. This was clear in Porvenir's results for the quarter. Returns on Porvenir's reserves were suffered during the latter part of the quarter, negatively impacting profitability. Corfi contributed strongly due to seasonal dividend, higher income from the infrastructure sector and a decrease in cost of funds, which reached single digits in the quarter.

該國財政前景的惡化和財政部長的辭職影響了本季下半段的當地市場。這在 Porvenir 本季的業績中表現得很明顯。本季後半段，Porvenir 儲備金的回報受到影響，對獲利能力產生了負面影響。由於季節性股息、基礎設施部門收入增加以及資金成本下降（本季達到個位數），Corfi 做出了巨大貢獻。

Now moving on to our corporate priorities. I would like to give you a brief update. First, customer experience. In terms of customer experience, we system measure the Net Promoter Score, NPS, across all of our entities to assess customer satisfaction and loyalty. The consistent improvement in NPS results reflects our strong commitment to enhancing customer journey. As part of this effort, we have implemented a comprehensive loyalty program that includes and us and Aval experiences, which provide customers with privileged access to events and concerts.

現在來談談我們的公司優先事項。我想向大家簡單介紹一下最新情況。第一，客戶體驗。在客戶體驗方面，我們有系統地測量所有實體的淨推薦值 (NPS)，以評估客戶滿意度和忠誠度。NPS 結果的持續改善反映了我們對提升客戶旅程的堅定承諾。作為這項努力的一部分，我們實施了一項全面的忠誠度計劃，其中包括我們和 Aval 體驗，為客戶提供參加活動和音樂會的特權。

Additionally, we have developed Augusta, a robust and integrated customer database that enables us to gain deeper insights into our clients' relationships across Aval entities and to serve them with greater precision and relevance. This year, we established a group-wide committee to promote the exchange of best practices and customer experience across our entities. As key steps in this effort, we are reviewing our entire voice of the customer model and standardizing net promoter score, NPS, measure in line with the highest industry standards.

此外，我們還開發了 Augusta，這是一個強大且整合的客戶資料庫，使我們能夠更深入地了解客戶與 Aval 實體之間的關係，並為他們提供更精確、更相關的服務。今年，我們成立了一個集團範圍的委員會，以促進我們各實體之間最佳實踐和客戶體驗的交流。作為此工作的關鍵步驟，我們正在審查整個客戶之聲模型，並根據最高行業標準對淨推薦值 (NPS) 進行標準化衡量。

Additionally, we'll launch a comprehensive internal program to further embed a customer-centric culture throughout our entities, which includes the training session, strategic communication content and technological tools.

此外，我們將啟動一項全面的內部計劃，進一步在我們的實體中植入以客戶為中心的文化，其中包括培訓課程、策略溝通內容和技術工具。

Second, financial diversification. On this call, we have been working over recent quarters in three fronts. First, improve our commercial and marketing capabilities around retail deposits; second, reduce balance sheet sensitivity to interest rate risk terms with volatility; and third, improve our nonbanking fee generation capabilities. As part of our focus on increasing our share of retail funding, we have made changes in the incentive structure of our sales forces.

第二，金融多元化。在這次電話會議上，我們最近幾季一直在三個方面開展工作。一是提升零售存款的商業和行銷能力；第二，降低資產負債表對波動性利率風險條款的敏感度；第三，提高我們的非銀行費用產生能力。作為我們增加零售融資份額的重點之一，我們對銷售團隊的激勵結構進行了改變。

In addition, we are reviewing our product base to strengthen our value proposition for retail customers. In addition, our banks, particularly those focused on retail lending, continue deploying these efforts to reduce their sensitivity to interest rate risk. First, they have increased the mix of the time deposits in their overall funding mix. Second, increasing the tenures on new time deposits to lever closer to the duration of their loans; and third, using hedging strategies to swap fixed rate time deposit to IDR. The speed of deployment of this strategy has been mindful of the persistence of the higher for longer interest rate environment in Colombia.

此外，我們正在審查我們的產品基礎，以加強我們針對零售客戶的價值主張。此外，我們的銀行，特別是那些專注於零售貸款的銀行，繼續採取這些措施來降低對利率風險的敏感度。首先，他們增加了定期存款在整體融資結構中的佔比。第二，延長新增定期存款的期限，使其更接近貸款期限；第三，利用避險策略將固定利率定期存款兌換為印尼盾。這項戰略的部署速度已考慮到哥倫比亞長期高利率環境的持續性。

We continue strengthening our services offering and nonbanking fee generation by improving our asset management and advisory services. As mentioned in our last call, Aval acquired investment of core fee trust and brokerage business. In addition, we incorporate Aval Banca de Inversion Investment Banking as a joint effort of the holding company effort.

我們透過改善資產管理和諮詢服務，持續加強我們的服務提供和非銀行費用產生。正如我們上次電話會議中提到的，Aval 獲得了核心費用信託和經紀業務的投資。此外，我們也將 Aval Banca de Inversion 投資銀行納入控股公司業務的合資企業。

Third, synergies and efficiencies. During the quarter, we set ourselves to capture efficiencies in the following calendar year. The first wave of synergies will leverage on the centralization through Aval Valor Compartido of the Group's procurement, facility and property management, accounting function, cybersecurity, payroll and recruitment.

第三，協同增效。在本季度，我們致力於在下一個日曆年提高效率。第一波綜效將利用 Aval Valor Compartido 對集團採購、設施和財產管理、會計職能、網路安全、薪資和招聘的集中化。

During the first quarter, we successfully migrated Banco de Bogota processes into Aval Valor Compartido. Next semester, we will migrate these processes to Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular, and AV Villas. Fourth, digital transformation and innovation. We aim to consolidate our culture of innovation and modern technology, capitalizing on the benefits of artificial intelligence, assuring technological stability and security and promoting digital transformation to improve our business and product and service offerings.

在第一季度，我們成功地將波哥大銀行的流程遷移到了 Aval Valor Compartido。下學期，我們將把這些流程遷移到 Banco de Occidente、Banco Popular 和 AV Villas。第四，數位轉型與創新。我們旨在鞏固我們的創新文化和現代技術，利用人工智慧的優勢，確保技術穩定性和安全性，並促進數位轉型，以改善我們的業務和產品和服務。

On this front, I am proud to announce we partnered with Microsoft to boost the usage of artificial intelligence in our everyday operations. This will leverage customer experience, operational efficiency and enhance data-driven decision-making. We actively support the real-time payment system led by Banco de la República, achieving significant progress in the creation and use of our alphanumeric key known as Tag Aval. As of today, we have enabled 8.9 million keys, an increase of 15% since December of last year to receive near real-time transfer from other financial institutions. This has facilitated over 2.1 million transactions, a 70% increase compared to January.

在這方面，我很自豪地宣布，我們與微軟合作，以促進人工智慧在我們日常營運中的使用。這將提高客戶體驗、營運效率並增強數據驅動的決策。我們積極支持由共和國銀行主導的即時支付系統，在創建和使用稱為 Tag Aval 的字母數字密鑰方面取得了重大進展。截至今天，我們已經啟用了 890 萬個密鑰，比去年 12 月增加了 15%，以接收來自其他金融機構的近乎即時的轉帳。這促成了超過 210 萬筆交易，與 1 月相比成長了 70%。

Fifth, corporate culture. To support the strategic priorities that I have mentioned, we continue to strengthen our performance and customer-oriented culture. As part of this process, we have been working on promoting and improving the communication of our leadership across business units and throughout our organization around our strategic priorities as a group and key initiatives.

第五，企業文化。為了支持我所提到的策略重點，我們將繼續加強我們的績效和以客戶為中心的文化。作為這個過程的一部分，我們一直致力於促進和改善我們領導層在各個業務部門以及整個組織內圍繞集團戰略重點和關鍵舉措的溝通。

In addition, we are well advanced in the process of refreshing part of the leadership teams and our brands combining bringing in new talent that adds to existing leaders. These changes, combined with the refreshment of our Board of Directors and CEOs of our main business units support the alignment of our management team to the new opportunities and challenges that we face.

此外，我們在更新部分領導團隊和品牌方面也取得了很大進展，引進了新的人才來補充現有的領導者。這些變化，加上我們董事會和主要業務部門執行長的更新，支持我們的管理團隊適應我們面臨的新機會和挑戰。

And finally, sustainability. We recently published our management and sustainability report, a document that reflects our economic results and progress in ESG terms. It released the impact we have on the millions of people who carry in our endorsement to fulfill their dreams. I invite you to read it if you have not already done so. The coming months will be key to consolidate an even more robust ESG strategy aligned with the sustainability challenges facing the country and the world.

最後，可持續性。我們最近發布了管理和永續發展報告，這份報告反映了我們的經濟成果和 ESG 的進展。它展現了我們對數百萬在我們的支持下實現夢想的人們的影響。如果您還沒有讀過，我建議您讀一讀。未來幾個月將是鞏固更強大的 ESG 策略以應對國家和世界面臨的永續發展挑戰的關鍵。

Now I would like to invite Paula to go over our ESG achievements to release this quarter.

現在我想請 Paula 來回顧我們本季發布的 ESG 成果。

Thank you, Maria. This quarter, we proudly received the results of the Medco ESG responsibility ranking, which recognizes the companies with the best reputation for their ESG impact in Colombia. In the ranking, Grupo Aval rose to 71st, signing 17 positions and positioning itself as the third largest business conglomerate in the country. In the financial sector, Banco de Bogota ranked 3rd, Banco efficiency and Banco AV Villas were in the top 10. Corficolombiana ranked 8th and Porvenir reached 2nd place in the AFP sector.

謝謝你，瑪麗亞。本季度，我們很自豪地收到了 Medco ESG 責任排名的結果，該排名表彰了在哥倫比亞 ESG 影響方面享有最佳聲譽的公司。在排名中，Grupo Aval 上升至第 71 位，簽約 17 個職位，成為全國第三大商業集團。在金融領域，波哥大銀行排名第三，效率銀行和AV Villas銀行都進入前十名。Corficolombiana 排名第 8，Porvenir 在 AFP 領域獲得第 2 名。

One of our most significant social initiatives, Mision La Guajira advanced this quarter with registration and documentation programs with the National Register's Office and with financial education programs. During the quarter, we completed water solutions for 45 communities and Energy Solutions for 81 communities in manaure and adidi.

作為我們最重要的社會舉措之一，Mision La Guajira 本季度透過與國家登記處合作開展註冊和文件記錄計劃以及金融教育計劃取得了進展。本季度，我們為馬瑙爾和阿迪迪地區的 45 個社區完成了供水解決方案，為 81 個社區完成了能源解決方案。

Our commitment to diversity and inclusion continues to be an important driver for us. Today, 35% of our management positions are held by women and 55% of our employees are women. The percentage of women's participation in our board increased from 24% to 31% after the Q1 assemblies in which boards were elected. And in addition, the percentage of independent members increased from 58% to 60%.

我們對多元化和包容性的承諾仍然是我們的重要驅動力。如今，我們 35% 的管理職由女性擔任，55% 的員工也是女性。在第一季選舉董事會的大會之後，我們董事會中女性參與率從 24% 上升到了 31%。此外，獨立成員的比例從58%增加到60%。

Regarding our progress in environmental issues, we continue to define our decarbonization route together with the group's entities, and we continue to implement a ecoefficient projects such as the Banco Popular alliance with Promigas to generate social energy for 13 of its branches. This initiative will allow them to generate more than 570,000 kilowatts per year and avoid the emission of close to 300 tons of CO2.

關於我們在環境問題上的進展，我們繼續與集團實體一起確定我們的脫碳路線，並繼續實施生態係數項目，例如 Banco Popular 與 Promigas 聯盟為其 13 個分支機構創造社會能源。這項舉措將使他們每年發電超過 57 萬千瓦，並避免排放近 300 噸二氧化碳。

Finally, during the quarter, we enhanced our ESG management model by developing a comprehensive reporting system that enabled us to establish a baseline for more than 150 indicators across our entities. This foundation has allowed us to build dynamic dashboards to track progress in the key ESG areas. We firmly believe that by working together with our entities, sharing best practices and monitoring progress we can amplify the impact of our efforts and drive meaningful measurable change.

最後，在本季度，我們透過開發全面的報告系統增強了我們的 ESG 管理模式，使我們能夠為各實體的 150 多個指標建立基準。這個基礎使我們能夠建立動態儀表板來追蹤關鍵 ESG 領域的進展。我們堅信，透過與我們的實體合作、分享最佳實踐和監控進展，我們可以擴大我們努力的影響力並推動有意義的可衡量的變化。

We will continue to strengthen our internal capabilities, advance our environmental goals, deepen our social impact program and more accurately measure the value we generate. Thank you.

我們將繼續加強我們的內部能力，推進我們的環境目標，深化我們的社會影響計劃，更準確地衡量我們創造的價值。謝謝。

Thank you, Paula. Now on the macro side, let me mention some relevant issues this quarter. The Colombian economy posted a strong growth figures during the first quarter, driven by the public administration, entertainment and commerce sectors. For 2025, we forecast a GDP growth of 2.7%. We anticipate moderation in the following quarters due to the potential negative effects of tariffs on global trade.

謝謝你，保拉。現在從宏觀方面來說，讓我提一下本季的一些相關問題。在公共行政、娛樂和商業領域的推動下，哥倫比亞經濟在第一季取得了強勁的成長。我們預測 2025 年 GDP 成長率為 2.7%。由於關稅可能對全球貿易產生負面影響，我們預計未來幾季的貿易成長將會放緩。

Thus, despite the recovery, global and local uncertainty will continue to take a toll on investments. Annual inflation slowed to 5.09% in March 2025, down from 5.2% at the end of 2024, marking its lowest level since October 2021. This is a positive development indicating that the Central Bank's efforts to stabilize prices are yielding results. However, regulated companies and food prices continue pressuring inflation. Our forecasted inflation is 4.7% for the end of the year.

因此，儘管經濟復甦，全球和地方的不確定性仍將繼續對投資造成影響。2025年3月年通膨率放緩至5.09%，低於2024年底的5.2%，為2021年10月以來的最低水準。這是一個積極的進展，顯示央行穩定物價的努力正在取得成效。然而，受監管的公司和食品價格繼續給通膨帶來壓力。我們預測今年年底的通貨膨脹率為4.7%。

In this context, the Central Bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in its April meeting, balancing between the recovery of the economy and fiscal challenges. The deterioration of the fiscal front from remain as the main stopper for a more dovish Central Bank. We expect the central bank rate to end 2025 in 8.5%. The fiscal deficit for this year will exceed 60% of GDP above the government target of 5.1%. Confidence in the government's fiscal adjustment plan has diminished amid high global uncertainty.

在此背景下，央行在4月會議上下調政策利率25個基點，平衡經濟復甦與財政挑戰。財政狀況的惡化仍是央行採取較溫和立場的主要障礙。我們預計到 2025 年底央行利率將達到 8.5%。今年的財政赤字將超過GDP的60%，高於政府5.1%的目標。由於全球不確定性較高，人們對政府財政調整計畫的信心減弱。

We anticipate that pressure on long-term rates will continue in the coming months. Our belief is that the business sector must remain dedicated to executing their investment and strategies. As we enter the pre-electoral year, noise will be -- sorry, noise will continue to increase. However, we are confident in the resilience of the Colombian economy. Camilo will elaborate on our economic outlook.

我們預計未來幾個月長期利率仍將面臨壓力。我們相信，商業部門必須繼續致力於執行其投資和策略。隨著我們進入選舉年，噪音將會——抱歉，噪音將會繼續增加。然而，我們對哥倫比亞經濟的韌性充滿信心。卡米洛將詳細闡述我們的經濟前景。

Camilo?

卡米洛？

Thank you, Maria Botero, and good morning. The improving trend in the Colombian economy recorded in 2024 extended into early 2025. We estimate economic growth of 2.8% for the first quarter. The economy we have experienced its highest annual expansion since mid-2022. Similar to the beginning of 2024, public spending and household consumption were the main drivers.

謝謝你，瑪麗亞·博特羅，早安。2024 年哥倫比亞經濟的改善趨勢延續至 2025 年初。我們預計第一季經濟成長率為2.8%。我們的經濟經歷了自 2022 年中期以來的最高年度擴張。與2024年初類似，公共支出和家庭消費是主要驅動力。

According to the Autonomous Committee for the Fiscal Rule, in the first quarter, public spending grew 21% annually, supporting the recovery phase. In fact, the best performing sector was public administration. On the other hand, the second most dynamic sector was trade, transportation, accommodation and food services, explained by higher private consumption of both goods and services.

據財政規則自治委員會稱，第一季公共支出年增21%，支持了經濟復甦階段。事實上，表現最好的產業是公共管理。另一方面，第二大最具活力的行業是貿易、運輸、住宿和餐飲服務，這是因為私人對商品和服務的消費都有所增加。

Without a doubt, the strength of the labor market, which at the end of the quarter recorded the lowest unemployment rate since May 2016 at 9.1% has been one of the major drivers of the Colombian increased purchasing power. Furthermore, annual growth of 24% in remittances in pesos during the first quarter also contributed to this. In this context, sectors such as manufacturing, finance and professional services also enjoyed an increase in their activity.

毫無疑問，勞動市場的強勁是哥倫比亞購買力增強的主要驅動力之一，本季末失業率創下 2016 年 5 月以來的最低水平，為 9.1%。此外，第一季比索匯款年增24%也對此有所貢獻。在此背景下，製造業、金融業和專業服務業等行業的活動也出現成長。

Meanwhile, investment continues modest recovery, supported by an increase in import of capital goods for industry and agriculture as well as the execution of infrastructure projects in the country's main cities. Thus, amid favorable domestic demand, but recognizing latent risks in the international front, growth of around 2.7% is expected for 2025, still below the country's potential. For its part, this inflationary process paused in the first quarter, dropping from an inflation rate of 5.2% at the end of 2024 to 5.1% in March.

同時，受工業和農業資本貨物進口增加以及主要城市基礎設施項目實施的推動，投資繼續溫和復甦。因此，在國內需求良好但國際上存在潛在風險的情況下，預計2025年經濟成長率將在2.7%左右，仍低於該國的潛力。就其本身而言，通膨過程在第一季暫停，通膨率從2024年底的5.2％下降到3月的5.1％。

The high indexation and the impact of the minimum wage on services, the increase in gas rates that pressure regulated prices, a slow but progressive transmission of the devaluation to prices of goods and a modest increase in food services explained the above. Inflation is expected to be around 4.7% by the end of 2025, once again outside the target range established by the Central Bank.

高指數化和最低工資對服務業的影響、天然氣價格上漲對管制價格的壓力、貶值對商品價格緩慢但漸進的傳導以及食品服務的溫和增長解釋了上述情況。預計2025年底通膨率將在4.7％左右，再次超出央行設定的目標範圍。

Amid the described economic outlook and accompanied by a deterioration of Colombia's country risk due to a complex fiscal situation, the Central Bank paused its easing cycle, leaving the interest rate by 9.50%. New members appointed to the Central Bank's Board in February with a paradox view of the economy have added uncertainty to the decisions.

鑑於上述經濟前景，且由於財政狀況複雜導致哥倫比亞國家風險惡化，央行暫停寬鬆週期，將利率維持在 9.50%。今年 2 月，央行董事會任命了新成員，他們對經濟持有矛盾的看法，這為決策增添了不確定性。

In April, an ample consensus expected a third stability decision, but the Board unanimously opted to reduce the interest rate to 9.25%. Data dependence makes it difficult to forecast the interest rate. Despite this, it is expected to continue declining to around 8.50% at the end of the year, limited in part by a fiscal situation.

4 月份，各方普遍預期央行將做出第三次穩定決定，但委員會一致選擇將利率降至 9.25%。數據依賴性使得預測利率變得困難。儘管如此，預計到年底該比率將繼續下降至 8.50% 左右，部分原因是受到財政狀況的限制。

Regarding the exchange rate, in line with global developments and prior to the burst of uncertainty, the Colombian peso strengthened against the US dollar in the first quarter. Compared to the end of 2024, while the dollar lost 4% against G7 currencies to March, the devaluation against the Colombian peso was 5% as the exchange rate fell from COP4,405 to COP4,181 per dollar.

就匯率而言，與全球發展一致且在不確定性爆發之前，哥倫比亞比索兌美元在第一季走強。與 2024 年底相比，截至 3 月份，美元兌七國集團貨幣貶值 4%，而兌哥倫比亞比索貶值 5%，匯率從 1 美元兌 4,405 哥倫比亞比索跌至 1 美元兌 4,181 哥倫比亞比索。

However, the Colombian pesos performance was mixed. Standard & Poor's notification of the country's BB+ rating with a negative outlook and the upward adjustment of the rate expectations of the Central Bank supported the currency with the exchange rate hitting a low of COP4,060 in mid-February. However, the deterioration in the fiscal outlook following the publication of the government's financial plan questioned the compliance with the Fiscal Rule in 2024 and put upward pressure on the currency.

不過，哥倫比亞比索的表現好壞參半。標準普爾將該國評級降至 BB+，展望為負面，央行上調利率預期，這些因素支撐了該國貨幣，2 月中旬，其匯率跌至 4,060 哥倫比亞比索的低點。然而，政府財政計畫公佈後財政前景的惡化使人們對其是否能遵守2024年的財政規則產生了質疑，並對貨幣造成了上行壓力。

By 2025, the exchange rate is expected to average COP4,300 against the dollar, amid high global volatility, a challenging fiscal balance and a widening of Colombia's external deficit. Indeed, we expect the current account deficit to fall from minus 1.8% of GDP in 2024 to minus 2.6% of GDP in 2025 due to a stronger recovery in imports than exports, both of goods and services, where the terms of trade would be affected by lower commodity prices.

到 2025 年，在全球波動性加大、財政平衡面臨挑戰以及哥倫比亞外部赤字擴大的背景下，預計哥倫比亞比索兌美元的平均匯率將達到 4,300。事實上，我們預計，由於進口復甦強於出口（商品和服務均如此），而貿易條件將受到大宗商品價格下跌的影響，經常帳赤字將從2024年的GDP的-1.8%下降到2025年的GDP的-2.6%。

Finally, the fiscal situation in 2025 does not appear far removed from that observed in the previous year. In the first quarter, spending far exceeded revenue, resulting in record fiscal deficits and low cash flow levels. Unfortunately, the strategy for increased tax collection is not entirely clear, and the option of cutting spending has been postponed to a point where if it takes place, it could be insufficient and too late.

最後，2025 年的財政狀況似乎與前一年相去不遠。第一季度，支出遠超過收入，導致財政赤字創歷史新高，現金流水準較低。不幸的是，增加稅收的策略並不完全明確，而削減開支的選擇已被推遲到即使實施也可能不夠且為時已晚的地步。

Given this scenario and considering that the three major rating agencies of Fitch, Standard & Poor's and Moody's have a negative outlook for the country, the likelihood of a rating downgrade is increasingly likely. Thank you. Back to you, Maria Botero.

在這種情況下，考慮到惠譽、標準普爾和穆迪三大評級機構均對該國持負面展望，評級被下調的可能性越來越大。謝謝。回到你身邊，瑪麗亞·博特羅。

Thank you, Camilo. Since our last call, we have continued to see positive trends in the consumer credit cycle, which have translated into lower cost of risk in the system and high profitability in the Colombian financial system.

謝謝你，卡米洛。自上次電話會議以來，我們繼續看到消費信貸週期的正面趨勢，這意味著系統風險成本降低，哥倫比亞金融體系獲利能力增強。

As of February, 7 out of 29 banks accumulated net losses compared with 12 banks on February 2024. Although the system's profitability has improved, there is still a long way to go even more so as they incorporate during the first and second quarters of 2024, the reconstitution of countercycle's provisions that were released during 2023 and 2024. However, the system has sufficient solvency to absorb this cycle.

截至2月份，29家銀行中已有7家出現淨虧損，而2024年2月有12家銀行出現淨虧損。儘管該系統的獲利能力有所提高，但仍有很長的路要走，尤其是在 2024 年第一季度和第二季度，它們將納入 2023 年和 2024 年發布的反週期規定的重組。然而，該系統有足夠的償付能力來吸收這個循環。

Now I would like to pass the call to Diego, who will give details of our results. Diego?

現在我想將電話轉給 Diego，他將詳細介紹我們的結果。迭戈？

Thank you, Maria Lorena. I will start on pages 9 and 10 with a few charts showing the growth rate and quality of our loan portfolio relative to the rest of the Colombian banking system. For comparability reasons, these are unconsolidated figures under Colombian IFRS as published by the Superintendency of Finance of Colombia. For the 12 months ending in February 2025, commercial loans and mortgages for the system grew 0.5% and 3.4% in real terms, with consumer loans contracting 7.4% in real terms. We continue to outgrow our competitors in total loans and retail loans and have grown slightly slower in commercial loans.

謝謝你，瑪麗亞·洛雷娜。我將從第 9 頁和第 10 頁開始用幾張圖表展示我們的貸款組合相對於哥倫比亞其他銀行系統的成長率和品質。為了便於比較，這些是哥倫比亞金融監理局根據哥倫比亞國際財務報告準則發布的非合併數據。截至2025年2月的12個月中，該系統的商業貸款和抵押貸款實際增加了0.5％和3.4％，而消費貸款實際上收縮了7.4％。我們在總貸款和零售貸款方面的成長持續超過競爭對手，而在商業貸款方面的成長則略有放緩。

This yielded year-on-year market share gains of 32 basis points in total loans, 156 basis points in consumer loans and 199 basis points in mortgages, while our share of commercial loans fell 48 basis points. For the last three months, loans grew 1% in the system. Even though dynamics continue to show signs of recovery, real growth was weak considering the 2.6% quarterly inflation. Mortgages grew 3% and commercial loans 1.4% in nominal terms over the quarter, while consumer loans contracted 0.9%.

這使得我們的市場份額在總貸款中同比增長 32 個基點，在消費貸款中同比增長 156 個基點，在抵押貸款中同比增長 199 個基點，而商業貸款份額下降了 48 個基點。過去三個月，該系統的貸款增加了 1%。儘管經濟動態繼續顯示出復甦的跡象，但考慮到 2.6% 的季度通膨率，實際成長仍然疲軟。本季度，抵押貸款名義增加 3%，商業貸款名義增加 1.4%，而消費貸款則收縮 0.9%。

On page 10, loan quality for both the system and the Aval banks showed an improvement during the quarter for all loan categories. Our banks continue to exhibit better loan portfolio quality than the system in all main categories. I will now move to the consolidated results of Grupo Aval under IFRS.

第 10 頁顯示，該系統和 Aval 銀行的所有貸款類別的貸款品質在本季均有所改善。我們的銀行在所有主要類別中繼續表現出比系統更好的貸款組合品質。現在我將介紹 Grupo Aval 根據 IFRS 的合併績效。

On page 11, assets grew 7.5% over the quarter and 0.6% to -- 7.5%, sorry, over the year and 0.6% over the quarter to COP330 trillion. Gross loans, our main assets reached COP199 trillion, growing 5.4% year-on-year and decreasing 0.3% over the quarter. Mortgages and consumer loans drove our year-on-year growth. Aggressive pricing competition for corporate clients remained the main challenge to achieve stronger growth in commercial loans.

第 11 頁顯示，資產在本季成長了 7.5%，全年成長了 0.6%，至 330 兆哥倫比亞比索。總貸款，即我們的主要資產達到 199 兆哥倫比亞比索，年增 5.4%，季減 0.3%。抵押貸款和消費貸款推動了我們的年增長。激烈的企業客戶價格競爭仍然是商業貸款更強勁成長的主要挑戰。

This has taken a toll on our share of commercial loans considering our pricing discipline. Commercial loans expanded 3.6% year-on-year and contracted 1.8% over the quarter. Consumer loans grew 3.9% year-on-year and 0.7% during the quarter with payroll loans growth continuing to recover, increasing 5.8% year-on-year and 1.6% during the quarter.

考慮到我們的定價紀律，這對我們的商業貸款份額造成了影響。商業貸款年增3.6%，本季下降1.8%。消費貸款年增 3.9%，本季成長 0.7%，薪資貸款成長持續復甦，年增 5.8%，本季成長 1.6%。

Auto loans grew 7.7% year-on-year and contracted 1.2% during the quarter. Personal loans grew 3% year-on-year and 1.4% during the quarter. Credit cards contracted 5.8% year-on-year and 3.1% during the quarter. Finally, mortgages grew 22% year-on-year and 4.2% during the quarter. We expect our 2025 loan growth to be slightly lower than formerly estimated, in line with a tighter monetary policy and more volatile local and global environment.

汽車貸款年增7.7%，本季下降1.2%。個人貸款年增 3%，本季成長 1.4%。信用卡業務年減 5.8%，本季下降 3.1%。最後，抵押貸款年增22%，本季成長4.2%。我們預計，2025 年的貸款成長將略低於先前的估計，這與更緊縮的貨幣政策和更動盪的本地和全球環境一致。

On page 12, we present the evolution of funding and deposits. Total funding increased 8.3% year-on-year and 1% during the quarter. Deposits that account for 75% of our funding grew 9.8% year-on-year and 3.5% quarter-on-quarter. Our deposits to net loan ratio closed at 109%.

第 12 頁，我們介紹了資金和存款的演變。總融資額年增 8.3%，本季成長 1%。占我們資金75%的存款年增9.8%，季增3.5%。我們的存款與淨貸款比率收在109%。

On page 13, we present the evolution of our total capitalization, our attributable shareholders' equity and the capital adequacy ratio of our banks. Our total equity decreased 1.6% over the quarter and increased 5% year-on-year. Our attributable equity decreased 1.6% over the quarter and increased 4.4% year-on-year. Dividends of COP655 billion were declared to our shareholders during the quarter. In addition, minorities at our subsidiary level received dividends of COP693 billion. Banco de Bogotá and Banco de Occidente declared dividends during the quarter.

第 13 頁介紹了我們的總資本、股東權益和銀行資本充足率的演變。我們的權益總額本季下降了 1.6%，但年增了 5%。我們的權益本季下降了 1.6%，年增了 4.4%。本季我們向股東派發了 6,550 億哥倫比亞比索的股息。此外，我們子公司層級的少數股東獲得了 6,930 億哥倫比亞比索的股利。波哥大銀行和西方銀行在本季宣布派息。

On page 14, we present our yield on loans, cost of funds, spreads and NIMs. Total NIM increased 64 basis points to 3.5% quarter-on-quarter, mainly driven by an improvement in NIM on investments to a still soft 0.3%. Our consolidated NIM on loans expanded 12 basis points year-on-year to 4.4% and was flat for the quarter. Over the year, NIM on retail loans expanded 96 basis points to 5.8% and NIM on commercial loans decreased by 81 basis points to 3.4%.

在第 14 頁，我們展示了我們的貸款收益率、資金成本、利差和淨利息收益率 (NIM)。總淨利差 (NIM) 環比增加 64 個基點至 3.5%，主要由於投資淨利差 (NIM) 提高至仍疲軟的 0.3%。我們的貸款綜合淨利差年增 12 個基點至 4.4%，本季持平。全年零售貸款淨利差擴大 96 個基點至 5.8%，商業貸款淨利差下降 81 個基點至 3.4%。

Over the quarter, NIM on retail loans expanded 19 basis points and NIM on commercial loans contracted 14 basis points. Aggressive price competition on commercial loans, especially in the corporate segment continued to press our NIM on commercial loans down. The benchmark rate for Colombia was flat at 9.5% during the first quarter. However, as mentioned by Camilo, the Central Bank unanimously cut its rate by a quarter to 9 and a quarter in its April meeting. Focusing on bank and the banking segment, NIM on loans of our banking segment was materially stable over the quarter at 4.9%.

本季度，零售貸款淨利差擴大 19 個基點，商業貸款淨利差收縮 14 個基點。商業貸款（尤其是企業貸款）的激烈價格競爭持續壓低我們的商業貸款淨利差。第一季哥倫比亞基準利率持平於9.5%。不過，正如卡米洛所提到的，央行在4月的會議上一致將利率下調了四分之一，至9.25%。專注於銀行和銀行部門，我們銀行部門的貸款淨利差在本季基本穩定在 4.9%。

This incorporates a 13 basis points increase in NIM on retail loans to 6.4% and 13 basis points decrease in NIM on commercial loans to 3.9%. The total NIM of our Banking segment expanded 53 basis points over the quarter to 4.2% due to the same dynamics that affected our consolidated NIM.

其中零售貸款淨利差增加 13 個基點至 6.4%，商業貸款淨利差減少 13 個基點至 3.9%。由於與合併淨利息收益率 (NIM) 相同的因素，我們銀行部門的總淨利息收益率 (NIM) 本季擴大了 53 個基點，達到 4.2%。

On a consolidated basis, the average yield on loans for the quarter decreased 38 basis points over the three-month period to 11.6%, while the average three-month IBR decreased 5 basis points to 9.3%. Consolidated cost of funds fell 37 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 6.8%. Average rates on time deposits and saving accounts fell 43 basis points and 52 basis points quarterly, respectively. The modest reduction pace of the Central Bank implies a longer adjustment period to that initially anticipated. In this scenario, our NIM will continue to expand, though at a lower pace.

綜合來看，本季貸款平均收益率在三個月內下降 38 個基點至 11.6%，而三個月平均 IBR 下降 5 個基點至 9.3%。綜合資金成本季減 37 個基點至 6.8%。定期存款和儲蓄帳戶的平均利率分別按季下降43個基點和52個基點。央行適度降息的步伐意味著調整期將比最初預期的更長。在這種情況下，我們的淨利差將繼續擴大，但速度會有所放緩。

On page 15 through 16, we present several loan portfolio quality ratios. Starting on page 15. PDL metrics continue to improve in all categories. 30-day PDLs were 5.18%, a 13 basis points improvement over three months and 68 basis points improvement over 12 months. 90-day PDLs were 3.74%, a 26 basis points improvement relative to the last quarter and 41 basis points improvement over 12 months.

在第 15 至 16 頁，我們列出了幾個貸款組合品質比率。從第 15 頁開始。PDL 指標在所有類別中均持續改善。 30 天 PDL 為 5.18%，比三個月提高了 13 個基點，比 12 個月提高了 68 個基點。 90 天 PDL 為 3.74%，較上一季提高 26 個基點，較 12 個月提高 41 個基點。

Commercial 30-day PDLs were 4.79%, a 16-basis point improvement over three months and 31 basis points improvement year-on-year. 90-day PDLs were 4.06%, a 37 basis points improvement over the quarter. 90-day PDL formation reached the lowest level of the last two years and continues to show a positive trend. 30-day PDL formation for the quarter was the lowest for our first quarter since 2022.

商業 30 天 PDL 為 4.79%，比三個月提高了 16 個基點，比去年同期提高了 31 個基點。 90 天 PDL 為 4.06%，比本季提高了 37 個基點。 90天PDL形成率達到近兩年來的最低水平，並持續呈現正向趨勢。本季 30 天 PDL 形成量是自 2022 年以來第一季的最低水準。

We recorded a 14 basis points decrease in consumer 30-day PDLs to 5.46% and 90-day PDLs decreased 10 basis points to 3.14%. Mortgages, 30-day PDLs and 90-day PDLs decreased 2 basis points and 14 basis points, respectively. Finally, the ratio of charge-offs to average 90-day PDLs was 0.88 times.

我們記錄到消費者 30 天 PDL 下降 14 個基點至 5.46%，90 天 PDL 下降 10 個基點至 3.14%。抵押貸款、30 天 PDL 和 90 天 PDL 分別下降 2 個基點和 14 個基點。最後，沖銷額與平均 90 天 PDL 的比率為 0.88 倍。

On page 16, the share of our portfolio classified as Stage 1 remained stable at 8.5%, while Stage 3 fell slightly over the quarter to 6.3%, driven by commercial and consumer loans. During the quarter, we reclassified a portion of Stage 1 commercial loans to Stage 2 due to an increase in expected credit loss following rating updates that incorporated this company's 2024 financial performance information.

在第 16 頁，我們投資組合中歸類為第 1 階段的份額保持穩定在 8.5%，而受商業和消費貸款的推動，第 3 階段的份額在本季度略有下降至 6.3%。在本季度，我們將部分第一階段商業貸款重新分類為第二階段，原因是在納入該公司 2024 年財務業績資訊的評級更新後，預期信用損失有所增加。

As a result, coverage measured as allowances for Stage 2 and 3 as a percentage of Stage 2 and 3 loans slightly fell during the quarter to 33.3%. On page 17, cost of risk net of recoveries increased 21 basis points to 2%. We expect 2025 cost of risk to be slightly below this level. Cost of risk net for commercial loans increased by 50 basis points to 0.9% for the quarter, reflecting the reclassification to Stage 2 previously described. Cost of risk for consumer loans improved 32 basis points to 4.5%.

因此，以第 2 階段和第 3 階段貸款的撥備佔比衡量的覆蓋率在本季略有下降，至 33.3%。在第 17 頁，扣除回收後的風險成本增加了 21 個基點，達到 2%。我們預計 2025 年的風險成本將略低於此水準。本季商業貸款風險淨成本增加了 50 個基點，達到 0.9%，反映了先前描述的第二階段的重新分類。消費貸款風險成本改善32個基點至4.5%。

The cost of risk for credit cards and auto loans improved quarter-on-quarter, falling 89 basis points to 6.1% and 75 basis points to 3%, respectively. On page 18, we present net fees and other income. Gross fee income grew 6.2% year-on-year and 0.6% quarter-on-quarter. Net fee income increased 0.9% and decreased 1%, respectively, over this time period. Net pension and severance fees grew 9.1% for the quarter, mainly due to higher performance-based fees and a higher collection of mandatory contributions related to the increase in minimum wage at the beginning of the year.

信用卡和汽車貸款的風險成本較上月改善，分別下降 89 個基點至 6.1% 和 75 個基點至 3%。第 18 頁列出了淨費用和其他收入。總費用收入較去年同期成長6.2%，較上季成長0.6%。在此期間，淨費用收入分別成長 0.9% 和下降 1%。本季淨退休金和遣散費成長 9.1%，主要原因是基於績效的費用增加，以及年初最低工資上調導致強制性繳款徵收增加。

Annual gross banking fees grew 1.4%. This incorporates 3.9% growth of commissions and banking services that was offset by a 2.1% annual decrease in credit cards and debit card fees. Our income for the nonfinancial sector was around 83% of that reported in the same period for 2024. Finally, at the bottom of the page, the year-on-year increase in other operating income is mainly explained by higher derivatives and FX gains.

年度銀行總費用增加了1.4%。其中包括佣金和銀行服務 3.9% 的增長，但被信用卡和借記卡費用 2.1% 的年度下降所抵消。我們的非金融部門收入約為2024年同期報告收入的83%。最後，在頁面底部，其他營業收入的年增率主要歸因於衍生性商品和外匯收益的增加。

On page 19, we present some efficiency ratios. Total expenses decreased 5.2% quarter-on-quarter and increased 7.6% year-on-year. General and administrative expenses decreased 8% quarter-on-quarter and increased 6.7% year-on-year with operating taxes and deposit insurance accounting for 37% of this category. Cost to assets for the quarter was 2.7%, improving 19 basis points quarter-on-quarter. Our quarterly cost to income improved to 50.8% over the quarter.

在第 19 頁，我們列出了一些效率比率。總支出較上季下降5.2%，較去年同期成長7.6%。一般及行政開支季減8%，年增6.7%，其中營業稅及存款保險費佔該類別的37%。本季資產成本為 2.7%，季增 19 個基點。本季我們的成本收入比改善至 50.8%。

Finally, on page 20, we present our net income and profitability ratios. Attributable net income for the quarter was COP362 billion or COP15.2 per share, increasing 28.5% relative to fourth quarter 2024 and 3.2 times that for first quarter of 2024. Our return on average assets and return on average equity for the quarter were 1% and 8.4%, respectively.

最後，在第 20 頁，我們展示了我們的淨收入和獲利比率。本季可歸屬淨收入為 3,620 億哥倫比亞比索，即每股 15.2 哥倫比亞比索，較 2024 年第四季成長 28.5%，為 2024 年第一季的 3.2 倍。本季我們的平均資產回報率和平均股本回報率分別為 1% 和 8.4%。

Before we move into questions and answers, I will now summarize our general guidance for 2025. We expect loan growth in the 9% area with commercial loans growing in the 7% area and retail loans growing in the 11% area, slightly lower than our previous guidance. Our consolidated NIM in the 4% area with NIM on loans in the 4.5% area. NIM of our banking segment in the 4.7% area with NIM on loans in the 5.3% area affected by the Central Bank's intervention rate expectations.

在進入問答環節之前，我將總結我們對 2025 年的整體指導。我們預計貸款成長率在 9% 左右，其中商業貸款成長率在 7% 左右，零售貸款成長率在 11% 左右，略低於我們先前的預期。我們的合併淨利差在 4% 左右，貸款淨利差在 4.5% 左右。受央行幹預利率預期的影響，我們銀行部門的淨利差在 4.7% 左右，貸款淨利差在 5.3% 左右。

Cost of risk net of recoveries at 1.95% -- in the 1.95% area better than our previous guidance. Cost to assets in the 2 3/4% area, income from the nonfinancial sector of 85%, of that for 2024 slightly improving from our previous guidance. A fee income ratio at the 21% area better than our previous guidance. With this, our expectation for 2025 return on equity is expected to be in the 10% to 11% range.

扣除回收後的風險成本為 1.95%——在 1.95% 的範圍內，比我們先前的預期好。資產成本在 2 3/4% 左右，非金融部門收入佔 85%，其中 2024 年比我們先前的指導略有改善。費用收入比率在 21% 左右，優於我們先前的預期。因此，我們預計 2025 年股本回報率將在 10% 至 11% 之間。

Thank you, Diego. Before moving into questions and answers, I would like to share some final thoughts of Colombia and Grupo Aval in 2025. The trend of improvement of our net income and return on equity will continue in the upcoming quarters. Despite the challenging economic conditions due to an increasing local and global uncertainty, we are focused on returning to double-digit -- in 2025. Positive drivers for our results incorporate stable cost of risk, higher operational effectiveness and a strong fee income generation from Nonbanking segments of operations will contribute positively to the results.

謝謝你，迭戈。在進入問答環節之前，我想分享一些關於 2025 年哥倫比亞和 Grupo Aval 的最後想法。我們的淨收入和股本回報率的改善趨勢將在未來幾季繼續保持。儘管由於國內和全球不確定性的增加，經濟狀況充滿挑戰，但我們仍致力於在 2025 年恢復兩位數的成長。我們業績的正面驅動因素包括穩定的風險成本、更高的營運效率以及非銀行業務部門產生的強勁費用收入，這些都將對業績產生正面影響。

The main headwind for a more solid improvement of return on equity continues to be our NIM on loans. The persistently high interest rate environment has slowed the recovery pace of our NIM on loans. As I mentioned earlier, one of the -- our corporate priorities consist in financial diversification. Achievements on this front will allow us to strengthen the mix of our deposits towards low cost and stable funding and reduce the cost of funding, there managing the impact of interest rate cycles. Our usual monetary policy will support the recovery of NIMs on loans.

阻礙股本回報率進一步穩固改善的主要阻力仍然是貸款的淨利差。持續的高利率環境減緩了我們貸款淨利差的恢復速度。正如我之前提到的，我們的公司重點之一就是實現財務多元化。這方面的成就將使我們能夠加強存款組合，實現低成本和穩定的融資，降低融資成本，從而管理利率週期的影響。我們通常的貨幣政策將支持貸款淨利差的恢復。

However, the speed we initially anticipated is no better than before, given the speed at which rates will be cut.

然而，考慮到降息的速度，我們最初預期的速度並沒有比以前更好。

In addition, our guidance incorporates stable spreads on commercial loans, which will support the persistent recovery overall already happening in NIM on retained loans. So we are now open to questions. Thank you very much.

此外，我們的指導意見納入了商業貸款的穩定利差，這將支持留存貸款淨利差總體上持續復甦。因此我們現在可以回答問題。非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Brian Flores, Citibank.

花旗銀行的布萊恩‧弗洛雷斯。

Hi, theam. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. I have two on my side. The first one is a bit on your guidance. So from what I understand, the new ROE range is 10% to 11%. I think it was closer to 11% in the previous quarter. So I just wanted to understand if this is a correct reading, which is ROE could be weaker than you were expecting in the last quarter.

嗨，theam。感謝給我提問的機會。我這邊有兩個。第一個是關於你的指導。據我了解，新的 ROE 範圍是 10% 到 11%。我認為上一季的比例更接近 11%。所以我只是想知道這是否是一個正確的解讀，即 ROE 可能比你上個季度預期的要弱。

And then as you mentioned, asset quality is perhaps a bit better than you were anticipating. But then as you mentioned, the key downside risk here seems to be NIM. So should we understand that at some point, you need to accelerate in origination to kind of compensate what is happening with pricing? That is the first question.

正如您所說，資產品質可能比您預期的要好一些。但正如您所提到的，這裡的主要下行風險似乎是 NIM。那麼我們是否應該理解，在某個時候，您需要加速起源以彌補定價方面發生的變化？這是第一個問題。

And then the second one is more on the macro side. We know the pension reform starts implementation in July. If you could elaborate any impacts you're seeing in Porvenir and also if this is already reflected in the guidance? Thank you.

第二個則較著重於宏觀方面。我們知道退休金改革將於七月開始實施。您能否詳細說明您在 Porvenir 中看到的任何影響，以及這是否已經反映在指南中？謝謝。

Yeah. Let me start with -- your reading on ROE is right. Last time, we had guided into 11% area. Now we're guiding slightly lower than that in the 10% to 11% range. The reason, as I try to highlight when going line by line is we've experienced two negative things and some positives.

是的。首先，你對 ROE 的解讀是正確的。上次，我們已經引導到11％的區域。現在我們的指導價格略低於這個數字，在 10% 到 11% 的範圍內。原因在於，正如我逐行強調的那樣，我們經歷了兩件消極的事情和一些積極的事情。

The positive, you're absolutely on the spot. It is a better performance and evolution of the quality of the loan portfolio. So that's going to be a positive one. Then there's another one, and it is Corficolombiana, we had guided to a lower performance this year, and it has already performed better during the quarter.

積極的一面是，你完全處於現場。這是貸款組合品質的更好表現和演變。所以這將是積極的。還有另一家公司，那就是 Corficolombiana，我們預計它今年的業績會比較低，但在本季度它的表現已經有所好轉。

And then on the negative side, the slower pace of the Central Bank does affect our NIM on loans, particularly of consumer loans specifically. So that's what we're bringing into this guidance. And then we had a slower first quarter in loan growth than what we were initially foreseeing.

然後從消極的一面來看，央行放緩的貨幣政策確實影響了我們的貸款淨利差，特別是消費貸款。這就是我們在本指南中提出的內容。然後，我們第一季的貸款成長速度低於我們最初預測的速度。

Then you said, should you guys be accelerating origination? I think that's something we're evaluating very carefully because part of the reason why we didn't grow as fast as we expected was that we saw very aggressive pricing from some of our peers in particularly large corporate loans. We've been very disciplined with pricing to ensure that we're growing, but we're growing in a profitable way so that those are the kind of things we need to evaluate. However, we continue to work on origination and high-quality and high profitability origination very high.

然後你說，你們是否應該加速起源？我認為我們正在非常謹慎地評估這一點，因為我們的成長速度沒有達到預期，部分原因是我們發現一些同業在特別是大型企業貸款方面的定價非常激進。我們在定價方面非常嚴格，以確保我們的成長，但我們的成長方式是有利可圖的，因此這些都是我們需要評估的事情。然而，我們將繼續致力於發起高品質、高獲利的發起。

Regarding the question about the pension reform, as you maybe know, given the EBITDA was approved in the Congress -- the short implementation of the reform is the 1st of July. So we are waiting for the constitutional court because they are analyzing if the reform is okay with the constitution. So -- but we are prepared in Porvenir.

關於退休金改革的問題，您可能知道，鑑於 EBITDA 已在國會獲得批准，改革的短期實施日期是 7 月 1 日。所以我們正在等待憲法法院的裁決，因為他們正在分析改革是否符合憲法。所以——但是我們在波韋尼爾已經準備好了。

The government has published a decree with the main issue for us that is the commissions and the commissions are set in the way that we were expecting. So I think we are waiting for the constitutional court, but Porvenir is prepared for both scenarios, with reform or without reform.

政府已經發布了一項法令，對我們來說主要的問題就是佣金，而佣金的設定方式也符合我們的預期。所以我認為我們正在等待憲法法院的裁決，但波維尼爾已經為兩種情況做好了準備，無論改革與否。

And then you also asked about our guidance. Our guidance is basically taking up a neutral scenario. The pension reform would be positive on our results if effective as planned. We've gone for our guidance on the prudent side.

然後您也詢問了我們的指導。我們的指導基本上是採取中性情景。如果退休金改革按計劃順利進行，將對我們的業績產生正面影響。我們已經採取了謹慎的指導。

No, perfect. Super clear. And then if I can just follow up on that last comment. So if it goes as you, let's say, the positive expectation that you have on the pension reform, do you have an estimate on the impact particularly or not yet?

不，完美。超級清晰。然後我是否可以跟進最後一條評論。那麼，如果一切如您所願，比如說，您對退休金改革抱持正面的期望，那麼您對其影響有什麼具體估計嗎？

We need to see how regulation comes out before we get into those numbers. We would prefer to wait for that.

在了解這些數字之前，我們需要先看看監管結果如何。我們寧願等待那個時刻。

That makes sense. Thank you.

這很有道理。謝謝。

Yuri Fernandes, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的尤里費南德斯。

Thank you, all. Just a follow-up on Porvenir. Just to see if I understood correctly, it's positive in the short term, but as the flows change in the future, it's negative, right, in the long run on Porvenir. And then I have a question on cost of risk. And I think Diego already mentioned this in the presentation regarding the increase in Stage 2. Just checking if this was one company or two or more companies, which sector are those companies from?

謝謝大家。這只是對 Porvenir 的後續行動。只是想看看我是否理解正確，短期內這是積極的，但隨著未來流量的變化，從長遠來看，對 Porvenir 來說這是消極的，對吧。然後我有一個關於風險成本的問題。我認為 Diego 已經在有關第二階段增加的演示中提到了這一點。只是想檢查一下這是一家公司還是兩家或更多公司，這些公司來自哪個行業？

And if this increase in Stage 2 should become Stage 3 at some point, like how you are seeing this or if you are comfortable with those? And if you plan to rebuild the coverage in the commercial Stage 2 and Stage 3 portfolio if your guidance somewhat reflects this?

如果第 2 階段的成長在某個時候變成第 3 階段，您對此有何看法或您對此感到滿意？如果您計劃重建商業第 2 階段和第 3 階段投資組合的涵蓋範圍，您的指導是否反映了這一點？

Let me start with your last one. This is actually a seasonal kind of review. So there is no reason to have any concern because of that, but there is a mechanical process where if companies didn't perform as well last year, then the rating falls. And even though they might be up to date and well performing with their loans, we need to change the rating, and that implies moving to the lower slice of Stage 2.

讓我先從最後一個問題開始。這實際上是一種季節性的評論。因此沒有理由對此感到擔憂，但有一個機械過程，如果公司去年的表現不佳，那麼評級就會下降。儘管他們的貸款可能是最新的並且表現良好，我們仍然需要改變評級，這意味著進入第二階段的較低階段。

The implication of that is we move from expected loss for 12 months to lifetime. Therefore, we increased the level of provisions, but it's more of an updating process that reflects how last year was rather than not how 2025, 2026 would look like. So not really a concern nor is this a change in trend.

這意味著我們從 12 個月的預期損失轉向終身損失。因此，我們提高了撥備水平，但這更多的是更新過程，反映的是去年的情況，而不是 2025 年、2026 年的情況。所以這並不是真正值得擔心的問題，也不是趨勢的改變。

We obviously continue to be careful of other portfolios as we've done throughout the cycle, and we need to see the economy to continue to pick up to feel fully comfortable, but we are well on that track. Then you asked on Porvenir, the concise answer is it is a positive in the short term.

顯然，我們會繼續對其他投資組合保持謹慎，就像我們在整個週期中所做的那樣，我們需要看到經濟繼續回升才能感到完全安心，但我們已經走在這條軌道上了。然後你問到 Porvenir，簡潔的回答是它在短期內是正面的。

In the long term, not the medium, but quite long term, we see a change because the volume that will go to the private sector will decrease. However, a substantial portion of current customers are part of the transition process. So the process of reducing the level of assets under management will take some time to offset the advantage of a better fee system.

從長期來看，不是中期，而是相當長期，我們會看到變化，因為流向私人部門的資金量將會減少。然而，現有客戶中相當一部分都處於過渡過程之中。因此，降低管理資產水準的過程將需要一段時間才能抵銷更好的收費制度所帶來的優勢。

Super clear. Thanks for the clarification, Diego. If I may, just a final one. If you can provide some comments, and sorry if you already did before, regarding the political outlook in Colombia, I know probably it's too soon to have a view. But whatever you can comment like for us to have some expectations, it's interesting for us here. Thank you.

超級清晰。感謝您的澄清，Diego。如果可以的話，我只想說最後一個。如果您能提供一些關於哥倫比亞政治前景的評論，很抱歉您之前已經做過了，我知道現在發表意見可能還為時過早。但無論您如何評論，例如讓我們有一些期望，這對我們來說都很有趣。謝謝。

I think, Diego, he doesn't want to answer that question. But I would say that the political outlook is uncertainty because you know that we have President Petro with the -- say, I don't know how to say (spoken in foreign language)

我認為，迭戈，他不想回答這個問題。但我想說，政治前景是不確定的，因為你知道我們有佩特羅總統——說，我不知道怎麼說（用外語說）

Sort of a referendum.

有點像全民公投。

Like a referendum that the Congress is -- will discuss that next week. And we are waiting for that, and they are with the reforms, the labor reform and the health reform. And we have, I don't know, 40 candidates for next year in the Presidential election. So what you will see in the following months is uncertainty about that and more uncertainty that President Petro will create.

就像國會正在進行的全民公投一樣——將於下週討論此事。我們正在等待這一點，他們也在等待改革，勞工改革和醫療改革。我不知道，明年的總統選舉我們有 40 位候選人。因此，在接下來的幾個月裡，你將會看到對此的不確定性以及佩特羅總統將造成的更多不確定性。

(inaudible) Thank you.

（聽不清楚）謝謝。

[Juan Daughter] Bank of Colombia.

[胡安女兒] 哥倫比亞銀行。

Hello, everybody. Can you hear me well? I have a couple of questions. The first one is in regards to provisions. What is your expectation and especially how do you read the balance of risk at this moment of the juncture in perspective of the changes of the onetime policy part of rate cuts, also the country risk and the initiation of a trade war internationally. And if that reading of the environment could lead you to change your expectations towards provisions, which seem to have bottomed in the previous quarter.

大家好。你聽得清楚我說話嗎？我有幾個問題。第一個是關於規定。您的預期是什麼？特別是考慮到降息等一次性政策部分的變化、國家風險以及國際貿易戰的爆發，您如何看待當前關頭的風險平衡？如果對環境的解讀能夠讓你改變對準備金的預期，那麼準備金的預期似乎在上一季已經觸底。

If you can give us some guidance in regards to that, I appreciate it. The other question is about commissions. We saw a decrease in the fee income ratio in this quarter. I would like to hear you elaborating a little bit on that decrease and on your expectations on the ratio for 2025. Also, you mentioned a strategic pillar improving the fees. So what could be your initiatives in that regard? Thank you very much.

如果您能就此給予我們一些指導，我將不勝感激。另一個問題是關於佣金。我們發現本季費用收入比率有所下降。我想聽聽您詳細說明一下這一下降趨勢以及您對 2025 年這一比例的預期。此外，您也提到了提高費用的策略支柱。那麼在這方面您可以採取什麼措施呢？非常感謝。

Yeah. Well, regarding provisions, I think that something that differentiates Aval from other peers in the system is the structure of our portfolio. So our guidance is tied more to that than other products. For example, we are much more concentrated in the payroll loans that even though they do carry the effect that we've seen on NIM are substantially better than some of the unsecured consumer lending and credit card products that are also part of the system. So we are in a position to have a better view on that.

是的。嗯，關於準備金，我認為 Aval 與系統中其他同行的區別在於我們的投資組合結構。因此，與其他產品相比，我們的指導與此的連結更為緊密。例如，我們更專注於薪資貸款，儘管它們確實對淨利差產生了影響，但其效果遠遠好於同樣屬於該系統的一些無擔保消費貸款和信用卡產品。因此，我們可以更好地了解這一點。

And then on the mix of industries, we have a slightly lower exposure to SMEs than some of our peers, and that also helps us. So that's the rationale behind why our performance has been substantially better than the rest of the system throughout this cycle and why we are able to have a more positive view. Then regarding fees, there's a mixture of effects here. If you've seen what we did was we raised our fee ratio because we saw the NIM slightly falling. We are pointing basically to the same guidance that we had before.

就產業組合而言，我們對中小企業的關注度比一些同行略低，這也對我們有幫助。這就是為什麼在整個週期中我們的表現明顯優於其他系統以及我們能夠擁有更積極看法的原因。那麼關於費用，這裡有各種各樣的影響。如果您看到我們所做的事情，那就是我們提高了費用率，因為我們看到 NIM 略有下降。我們基本上指向與之前相同的指導。

We are thinking in peso-denominated fees, something that did affect us during the first quarter is you might have seen that Colombia had a pretty tough March due to market volatility, and we've seen some months affecting performance-related fees.

我們正在考慮以比索計價的費用，第一季確實對我們產生影響的是，您可能已經看到，由於市場波動，哥倫比亞在三月份度過了相當艱難的時期，並且我們已經看到幾個月影響了與績效相關的費用。

However, we're seeing a pickup in retail activity that allows us to expect also an improvement on that side. Then there's something that is Aval-specific, and it is, as you well highlighted, that's one of our pillars because we feel we're not doing enough on the fee side. And given that we're actively working on that, that's also part of our source of being much more constructive on what we can achieve on fees moving forward.

然而，我們看到零售活動的回暖，這讓我們預期零售業也會有所改善。然後還有一些 Aval 特有的東西，正如您所強調的那樣，這是我們的支柱之一，因為我們覺得在費用方面我們做得還不夠。鑑於我們正在積極努力，這也是我們在未來費用方面取得更大成就的動力之一。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And there are no further questions at this time. Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, I turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。瑪麗亞·洛雷娜·古鐵雷斯·博特羅女士，我把電話轉回給您。

No. Thank you. Thank you to everyone to be with us in this call and see you in three months.

不。謝謝。感謝大家參加這次電話會議，三個月後再見。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。