Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Grupo Aval's Second Quarter 2023 Consolidated Results Conference Call. My name is Regina, and I will be your operator for today's call.

歡迎參加 Grupo Aval 2023 年第二季度合併業績電話會議。我叫雷吉娜，我將擔任您今天通話的接線員。

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A., Grupo Aval is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States SEC. As such, it is subject to compliance with securities regulations in Colombia and applicable U.S. securities regulations. Grupo Aval is also subject to the inspection and supervision of the superintendency of finance as holding company of the Aval financial conglomerate.

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A., Grupo Aval 是哥倫比亞和美國 SEC 的證券發行人。因此，它必須遵守哥倫比亞的證券法規和適用的美國證券法規。 Grupo Aval作為Aval金融集團的控股公司，也受到金融監管部門的檢查和監管。

The consolidated financial information included in this document is presented in accordance with IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Details of the calculations of non-IFRS measures such as ROAA and ROAE, among others, are explained when required in this report. Banco de Bogota executed a spin-off of the 75% equity stake in BAC Holding International Corp. BHI, to its shareholders and Grupo Aval subsequently spun off its equity interest to its shareholders on March 29, 2022. On December 19, 2022, Banco de Bogota sold 20.89% of the outstanding investment of BHI through a tender offer. As of December 31, 2022, Banco de Bogota held 4.11% of BHI. This investment is reflected as an investment at fair value through other comprehensive income.

本文件中包含的綜合財務信息是根據 IASB 當前發布的 IFRS 列報的。 ROAA 和 ROAE 等非 IFRS 指標的計算細節將在本報告中按需要進行解釋。波哥大銀行將 BAC Holding International Corp. BHI 75% 的股權分拆給其股東，Grupo Aval 隨後於 2022 年 3 月 29 日將其股權分拆給其股東。2022 年 12 月 19 日，Banco de Bogota 通過要約收購出售了BHI 已發行投資的20.89%。截至2022年12月31日，波哥大銀行持有BHI 4.11%的股份。該投資反映為以公允價值計量且其變動計入其他綜合收益的投資。

Following the sale, the equity method recognized under the share of profit of equity accounted investees, net of tax, equity method, between April and November was reclassified to discontinued operations. For comparability purposes of this presentation, we have reclassified BHI's equity method for the second and third quarters of 2022 to net income from discontinued operations. Banco de Bogota's remaining 4.11% interest in BHI was disposed of in March 2023.

出售後，4 月至 11 月期間根據權益法核算的被投資方的稅後利潤份額確認的權益法被重新分類為終止經營業務。出於本演示文稿的可比性目的，我們將 BHI 2022 年第二季度和第三季度的權益法重新分類為來自終止經營業務的淨利潤。波哥大銀行於 2023 年 3 月出售了 BHI 剩餘 4.11% 的權益。

This report includes forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as may, will, should, expects, plans, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential or continue or the negative of these and other comparable words. Actual results and events may differ materially from those anticipated herein as a consequence of changes in general, economic and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates and other risks described from time to time in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC.

本報告包含前瞻性陳述。在某些情況下，您可以通過“可能”、“將”、“應該”、“期望”、“計劃”、“預期”、“相信”、“估計”、“預測”、“潛力”或“繼續”等詞語或這些詞語和其他類似詞語的否定詞來識別這些前瞻性陳述。由於一般情況、經濟和商業狀況的變化、利率和匯率的變化以及我們向國家價值登記局提交的文件中不時描述的其他風險，實際結果和事件可能與本文預期的結果和事件存在重大差異。美國證券交易委員會。

Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Matters described in this presentation and our knowledge of them may change extensively and materially over time. We expressly disclaim any obligation to review, update or correct the information provided in this report, including any forward-looking statements, and do not intend to provide any update for such material developments prior to our next earnings report. The content of this document and the figures included herein are intended to provide a summary of the subjects discussed rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable in this document, we refer to billions as thousands of millions.

本文件的接收者負責評估和使用本文提供的信息。本演示文稿中描述的事項以及我們對它們的了解可能會隨著時間的推移而發生廣泛和實質性的變化。我們明確表示不承擔審查、更新或更正本報告中提供的信息（包括任何前瞻性陳述）的義務，並且不打算在下一份收益報告之前提供此類重大進展的任何更新。本文檔的內容和本文中包含的附圖旨在提供所討論主題的總結而不是全面描述。當適用於本文件時，我們將數十億稱為數億。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutierrez, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutierrez, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給首席執行官 Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutierrez 先生；路易斯·卡洛斯·薩米恩托·古鐵雷斯先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining our second quarter 2023 conference call. On today's call, I will limit my intervention to 3 main points: An outlook of the economy, a summary of recent legal resolutions including Grupo Aval and Corficolombiana and a brief review of our performance during this quarter. I will try to be as comprehensive as possible regarding legal issues. And I ask for your understanding, as I am sure you know that we are constrained by our resolution agreements to take questions in that reference.

早上好，感謝大家參加我們的 2023 年第二季度電話會議。在今天的電話會議上，我的發言將僅限於三個要點：經濟前景、包括 Grupo Aval 和 Corficolombiana 在內的近期法律決議的摘要以及對我們本季度業績的簡要回顧。我將盡力盡可能全面地闡述法律問題。我請求您的理解，因為我相信您知道我們受到解決協議的限制，無法回答該參考文獻中的問題。

As we have been anticipating, the economy took a dive during the second quarter. GDP growth was only 0.3% when compared to same quarter last year and contracted 1% on a quarterly basis as consumer demand dropped. Conversely, public spending increased significantly, particularly in social services, which helped to mitigate the slowdown. More importantly, the [niches] budget execution was staggeringly low. Consequently, liquidity to the tune of COP 45 trillion approximately remains frozen in the Central Bank, thus causing a liquidity crunch in the financial system.

正如我們一直預期的那樣，第二季度經濟出現下滑。與去年同期相比，GDP 增長率僅為 0.3%，由於消費者需求下降，GDP 環比萎縮 1%。相反，公共支出大幅增加，特別是在社會服務方面，這有助於緩解經濟放緩。更重要的是，[利基]預算執行率低得驚人。因此，大約 45 萬億比索的流動性仍被凍結在央行中，從而導致金融體係出現流動性緊縮。

Logically, this crunch resulted in a new surge of cost of funds, especially when comparing average funding rates versus sovereign debt yields. In sharp contrast, the global economy has continued to exceed expectations. Despite tight global monetary policy, economies around the world are trending upward. Additionally, a soft landing of the U.S. economy appears now to be the likelier scenario as market participants have revised downward the probability of a recession occurring in the coming months. Meanwhile, in Colombia, high-interest rates and persistent inflation have affected downward domestic demand, affecting particularly the purchase of durable goods such as vehicles.

從邏輯上講，這種緊縮導致了資金成本的新一輪飆升，特別是在比較平均融資利率與主權債務收益率時。與此形成鮮明對比的是，全球經濟持續超出預期。儘管全球貨幣政策趨緊，但全球經濟仍呈上升趨勢。此外，由於市場參與者下調了未來幾個月發生衰退的可能性，美國經濟軟著陸的可能性似乎更大。與此同時，在哥倫比亞，高利率和持續通脹影響了國內需求下降，尤其影響了汽車等耐用品的購買。

In fact, the most dynamic sector during the quarter was government services that grew 4.4% and represented 15.9% of GDP. The leased dynamic sectors in the second quarter were commerce and manufacturing, which accounted for 17.5% and 11.6% of GDP and contracted 3.7% and 3.1%, respectively.

事實上，本季度最具活力的部門是政府服務業，增長了 4.4%，佔 GDP 的 15.9%。第二季度租賃活躍部門是商業和製造業，分別佔GDP的17.5%和11.6%，分別收縮3.7%和3.1%。

Gross capital formation decreased 22.2% for the same period driven by weak investment in machinery and equipment. Based on the aforementioned, we anticipate the GDP growth in 2023 will be in the 1.5% area.

由於機械設備投資疲弱，同期資本形成總額下降22.2%。綜上所述，我們預計2023年GDP增​​速將在1.5%左右。

As we had anticipated, annual inflation continues to decline. In July, inflation for the last 12 months decreased to 11.78%, down from 12.13% in June. Notably, food prices, which were a significant driver of consumer price increases in 2022, have now become the main source of disinflation with a monthly variation of 0.22% in July. However, transportation has continued to exert upward pressure on the overall price index, resulting in a monthly reading of 1.07% in July.

正如我們預期的那樣，年通脹率繼續下降。 7月份，過去12個月的通脹率從6月份的12.13%下降至11.78%。值得注意的是，作為2022年消費者價格上漲的重要推動因素的食品價格現已成為通貨緊縮的主要來源，7月份的月度變化為0.22%。然而，交通運輸繼續對整體價格指數施加上行壓力，7月份月度指數為1.07%。

Going forward, market expectations and our own view indicate that annual inflation will continue to decrease over the next few months, reaching around 9% by year-end. Notably, this number will oscillate depending on the government's commitment to increase the price of gasoline and maybe also of diesel, thus decreasing very popular subsidies which currently produce a deficit of COP 2.5 trillion per month in an effort to reduce its gigantic debt with Ecopetrol. Notwithstanding the inflation trend. In its meeting at the end of July, the Central Bank maintained the repo rate at 13.25% in a unanimous decision.

展望未來，市場預期和我們自己的觀點表明，未來幾個月年度通脹率將繼續下降，到年底將達到 9% 左右。值得注意的是，這一數字將根據政府承諾提高汽油價格（或許還有柴油價格）的承諾而波動，從而減少非常受歡迎的補貼，目前這些補貼目前每月產生2.5 萬億哥倫比亞比索的赤字，以減少其與Ecopetrol 的巨額債務。儘管有通脹趨勢。 7月底央行會議一致決定維持回購利率在13.25%不變。

Analysts and interest rate swap markets now point to the beginning of an easing cycle in September or October. In line with market consensus, we anticipate that the interest rate cuts will start during the fourth quarter eventually reaching a range of 11.5% to 12% by year-end. June labor market data published by [DANE] reported that employees increased to $23.1 million in June, which implies 1 million more jobs than a year earlier. The stronger-than-expected job creation pushed the unemployment rate down to 9.3%, which is 2 percentage points lower than the rate reported 1 year ago, particularly strong in public administration, defense, professional activities, transportation and entertainment.

分析師和利率互換市場目前預計寬鬆週期將於 9 月或 10 月開始。與市場共識一致，我們預計降息將從第四季度開始，最終在年底達到 11.5% 至 12% 的幅度。 [DANE] 發布的 6 月份勞動力市場數據顯示，6 月份就業人數增加至 2,310 萬美元，這意味著比去年同期增加了 100 萬個就業崗位。強於預期的就業創造使失業率降至9.3%，比一年前報告的失業率低2個百分點，特別是公共管理、國防、專業活動、交通和娛樂領域的強勁表現。

These sectors combined accounted for 76% of the positions added. Going forward, as business activity decelerates, we expect weaker job numbers. As a result, we expect average annual unemployment in 2023 at 11.2%, similar to 2022. Regarding the exchange rate on a year-to-date basis, the Colombian peso is the most revalued in the region with a 20% appreciation. A key driving force behind this trend appears to be a sentiment that the government will be unable to get its reform agenda approved through Congress in its current form. This sentiment prompted a reassessment of risk related to Colombian assets during the first half of the year, a correction of the value of the Colombian peso and a rally in the test market. With material volatility, the peso has recently hovered around COP 4,000 per dollar. We believe that at current exchange rate levels, there is less room for a relevant correction of the Colombian peso.

這些行業合計佔新增職位的 76%。展望未來，隨著商業活動放緩，我們預計就業人數將會減少。因此，我們預計 2023 年平均失業率為 11.2%，與 2022 年相似。就年初至今的匯率而言，哥倫比亞比索是該地區升值幅度最大的貨幣，升值 20%。這一趨勢背後的一個關鍵驅動力似乎是一種情緒，即政府將無法以目前的形式讓國會批准其改革議程。這種情緒促使人們重新評估上半年與哥倫比亞資產相關的風險、哥倫比亞比索價值的調整以及測試市場的反彈。由於大幅波動，比索最近徘徊在 4,000 比索兌換 1 美元的水平。我們認為，在目前的匯率水平下，哥倫比亞比索相關調整的空間較小。

Once this process is over, we foresee the peso to reestablish a depreciation path. Although the depreciation of the peso will reduce pressures on government's overall financing needs, Colombia's external financing needs, longer-than-expected high-interest rates in developed economies and decreasing oil exports and persistent inflation will result in a relatively high current account deficit of around 4% of GDP by the end of this year.

一旦這個過程結束，我們預計比索將重新建立貶值路徑。儘管比索貶值將減輕政府整體融資需求的壓力，但哥倫比亞的外部融資需求、發達經濟體高利率持續時間長於預期以及石油出口減少和持續通脹將導致哥倫比亞經常賬戶赤字較高到今年年底佔GDP的4% 。

Finally, on the fiscal front, the deficit of the central government for 2023 was revised to 4.3% of GDP, up from the previous estimate of 3.8%.

最後，在財政方面，2023年中央政府赤字佔GDP的比重從之前預測的3.8%修正為4.3%。

Let's move on to legal matters related to Ruta del Sol. These are the most relevant and, in our opinion, very positive developments. Let's start with the Class Action suit. As you may recall, in January 2017, the Procuraduria General de la Nacion filed a Class Action Suit against Concesionaria Ruta del Sol, CRDS, its shareholders, including Episol and others, for the violation of certain collective rights. No other Grupo Aval companies were mentioned in that lawsuit. The Tribunal Administrativo de Cundinamarca, or TAC, a lower judicial instance produced a first ruling in December 2018, in which it found CRDS, its shareholders, including Episol and other individuals and entities not related to Aval or its affiliates, jointly and individually liable in order that the dependents pay damages to the nation for the violation of collective interests in the amount of approximately COP 716 billion. In addition, the TAC ruled the department of the defendants from contracting with the Colombian government for a term of 10 years.

讓我們繼續討論與 Ruta del Sol 相關的法律事務。我們認為，這些是最相關且非常積極的進展。讓我們從集體訴訟開始。您可能還記得，2017 年 1 月，國家總檢察長對 Concesionaria Ruta del Sol、CRDS 及其股東（包括 Episol 和其他人）提起集體訴訟，指控其侵犯某些集體權利。該訴訟中沒有提及 Grupo Aval 的其他公司。下級司法法院 TAC 於 2018 年 12 月做出了第一項裁決，其中發現 CRDS 及其股東，包括 Episol 以及與 Aval 或其附屬公司無關的其他個人和實體，對以下行為負有共同和個人責任：命令家屬因侵犯集體利益而向國家支付約7,160 億哥倫比亞比索的損失。此外，TAC 還裁定被告部門不得與哥倫比亞政府簽訂為期 10 年的合同。

Episol as well as other dependents appealed the decision to the Consejo de Estado, the highest court in the country that reviews these administrative decisions. On July 27, 2023, the Consejo Estado issued a final non-appealable ruling, revoking several of the tax rulings such as the order to pay any amount of damages the department of Episol and others from contracting with the government and the joint and several liability nature of the rulings. It also revoked several injunctions or interim measures and confirmed that certain collective rights were affected. As a result, Episol will not have to pay any damages pursuant to this action and may continue to contract with the government. Let's move on to investigations by United States authorities.

Episol 和其他家屬對該決定向國家最高法院提出上訴，該法院是負責審查這些行政決定的國家最高法院。 2023 年 7 月 27 日，Consejo Estado 發布了一項不可上訴的最終裁決，撤銷了多項稅務裁決，例如要求 Episol 部門和其他機構與政府簽訂合同支付任何金額損害賠償金的命令以及連帶責任裁決的性質。它還撤銷了幾項禁令或臨時措施，並確認某些集體權利受到影響。因此，Episol 無需根據這一行動支付任何損害賠償，並可以繼續與政府簽訂合同。讓我們繼續關注美國當局的調查。

On August 10, 2023, Grupo Aval and its subsidiary, Corficolombiana, announced the end after 5 years of the investigations of the U.S. government through the U.S. Department of Justice, DOJ, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, regarding Grupo Aval and Corficolombiana related to Ruta del Sol 2. These resolutions are the result of previously and abundantly disclosed investigations by the DOJ and the SEC related to the construction of the Ruta del Sol sector 2 by a joint venture in which Corficolombiana through its subsidiary, Episol, held a minority interest and the resolutions are based on information gathered by U.S. authorities, including testimonial evidence from third parties relating to actions taken by a former Corficolombiana executive in connection with an Odebrecht-led bribery scheme related to Ruta del Sol 2.

2023 年 8 月 10 日，Grupo Aval 及其子公司 Corficolombiana 宣布結束美國政府通過美國司法部 DOJ 和美國證券交易委員會 SEC 對 Grupo Aval 和 Corficolombiana 進行的長達 5 年的調查。 Corficolombiana 與Ruta del Sol 2 相關。這些決議是美國司法部和SEC 之前大量披露的調查的結果，該調查涉及Corficolombiana 通過其子公司Episol 持有的合資企業建設Ruta del Sol 2 區少數股東權益，且決議基於美國當局收集的信息，包括來自第三方的證詞證據，涉及Corficolombiana 前高管就Odebrecht 領導的與Ruta del Sol 2 相關的賄賂計劃所採取的行動。

Importantly, as a result of the investigations, the DOJ and SEC resolutions do not contain any allegation of corrupt knowledge or intent against any officer, director or shareholder of Grupo Aval nor any officer, director or shareholder of Corficolombiana other than the former CFC executive. Additionally, the [DOJ] did not bring any enforcement action against Grupo Aval in connection with the RDS2 project. Corficolombiana did enter into a resolution with DOJ and Grupo Aval and Corficolombiana entered into several administrative resolutions with the SEC.

重要的是，根據調查結果，美國司法部和美國證券交易委員會的決議不包含任何針對Grupo Aval 的任何高管、董事或股東或Corficolombiana 的任何高管、董事或股東（前CFC 高管除外）的腐敗知識或意圖的指控。此外，[DOJ] 沒有針對 Grupo Aval 就 RDS2 項目採取任何執法行動。 Corficolombiana 確實與司法部達成了一項決議，Grupo Aval 和 Corficolombiana 與 SEC 達成了多項行政決議。

The resolutions with the SEC established an amount of $40.2 million to be paid to the SEC and the resolution with the DOJ establish an amount after credits to be paid to the DOJ of $20.3 million for a total amount of $60.5 million, which will be paid by Corficolombiana and was provisioned on its June 30, 2023 financial statements. Because of its ownership stake in Corficolombiana, the amount to be paid has an approximate impact of $24 million and Grupo Aval's June 30, 2023, attributable net income. In entering into these resolutions, Corficolombiana and Grupo Aval recognized and accepted the responsibility under U.S. law for the actions of the former Corficolombiana executive.

與 SEC 的決議確定了向 SEC 支付 4020 萬美元的金額，與 DOJ 的決議確定了向 DOJ 支付的貸記後金額 2030 萬美元，總計 6050 萬美元，將由Corficolombiana 並在其2023 年6 月30 日的財務報表中計提了撥備。由於其持有 Corficolombiana 股權，支付金額大約影響 2400 萬美元以及 Grupo Aval 2023 年 6 月 30 日的歸屬淨利潤。在達成這些決議時，Corficolombiana 和 Grupo Aval 承認並接受美國法律對 Corficolombiana 前高管的行為承擔的責任。

From my point of view, equally noteworthy is the fact that the DOJ and SEC recognized Corficolombiana and Grupo Aval extensive cooperation with the investigations and that in the many years since the events occurred, Corficolombiana and Grupo Aval have enhanced their compliance programs and the internal controls. Again, the resolutions with the DOJ and SEC conclude those U.S. agencies' investigations into Grupo Aval in Corficolombiana related to Ruta del Sol 2.

在我看來，同樣值得注意的是，美國司法部和美國證券交易委員會承認Corficolombiana 和Grupo Aval 在調查中的廣泛合作，並且在事件發生後的許多年裡，Corficolombiana 和Grupo Aval 加強了其合規計劃和內部控制。與 DOJ 和 SEC 達成的決議再次結束了這些美國機構對位於 Corficolombiana 的 Grupo Aval 與 Ruta del Sol 2 相關的調查。

Additionally, Corficolombiana and Grupo Aval consider this painful chapter closed. As I explained at the beginning, other than the facts that I just mentioned, I will not address any questions regarding this matter. Before passing on this call to Diego, I will briefly address Aval's financial results in the second quarter. I guess I will divide our performance into positives and negatives.

此外，Corficolombiana 和 Grupo Aval 認為這一痛苦的篇章已經結束。正如我在開頭所解釋的，除了我剛才提到的事實之外，我不會就此事回答任何問題。在向迭戈轉達本次電話之前，我將簡要介紹一下 Aval 第二季度的財務業績。我想我會把我們的表現分為積極的和消極的。

Let's start with the negatives. First, the cost of funds continues to be a challenge for the industry, and our banks are not the exception, especially those with majority fixed rate consumer loan portfolios. Because of the obligation to comply with NSFR requirements between the third quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2023, the banking system loaded their balance sheets with time deposits at exorbitant costs when compared to the yields of government-issued fixed-rate debentures.

讓我們從負面開始。首先，資金成本仍然是行業面臨的挑戰，我們的銀行也不例外，尤其是那些以固定利率消費貸款組合為主的銀行。由於去年第三季度至 2023 年第一季度期間有遵守 NSFR 要求的義務，與政府發行的固定利率債券的收益率相比，銀行系統以過高的成本在其資產負債表上裝載了定期存款。

Consequently, a relevant portion of the systems time deposits are set to mature between June and October 2023. A mad dash has already begun to replace those with new time deposits. As a result, since mid-June, the banking system has experienced a steep increase in spreads between cost of funds and sovereign debt yields, even beyond those seen during the first quarter. This need for funding could not come at a worst moment, very low public budget execution results in funds that do not circulate in the economy, but rather stay deposited in the Central Bank.

因此，系統定期存款的相關部分將在 2023 年 6 月至 10 月之間到期。瘋狂衝刺已經開始用新的定期存款取代這些存款。因此，自6月中旬以來，銀行體系資金成本與主權債務收益率之間的利差急劇擴大，甚至超出了第一季度的水平。這種資金需求不可能出現在最糟糕的時刻，公共預算執行力極低會導致資金不在經濟中流通，而是存放在中央銀行。

As of last week, these deposits amounted to approximately COP 45 trillion. Even though the Central Bank makes available a portion of these funds through repo operations, they are short term in nature and do not contribute to the liquidity coverage ratios. Second, our bank's cost of risk increased to 2.16% in the second quarter as certain loan portfolio started to struggle because of the economy's degradation.

截至上週，這些存款總額約為 45 萬億比索。儘管央行通過回購操作提供了部分資金，但它們本質上是短期的，對流動性覆蓋率沒有貢獻。其次，由於經濟衰退，某些貸款組合開始陷入困境，第二季度我行的風險成本上升至2.16%。

Third, as a result of the resolutions with the DOJ and SEC, our infrastructure sector results include an extraordinary COP 253 billion negative impact, the equivalent of $60.5 million, which upon consolidation, translates into a onetime negative impact of COP 102.5 billion, the equivalent of $24 million in Aval's net attributable net income.

第三，由於與DOJ 和SEC 達成的決議，我們的基礎設施部門結果包括2530 億COP 的非同尋常的負面影響，相當於6,050 萬美元，合併後，會轉化為1,025 億COP 的一次性負面影響，相當於6050 萬美元。 Aval 的淨歸屬淨利潤為 2400 萬美元。

Fourth, in addition, the contribution of our infrastructure nonfinancial sector investments was lower than in the past, explained by projects starting to move from the construction to the operation phase.

第四，此外，我國基礎設施非金融投資貢獻度較以往有所下降，原因是項目開始從建設階段轉向運營階段。

There are; however, some positives. First, growth of our loan portfolios during the quarter, excluding the steep evaluation of the peso rose to 1.2%, which compares favorably to GDP growth. Second, although credit quality deterioration continued during the quarter, particularly in consumer loan portfolios, in the last 2 months, PDL formation has started to stabilize in unsecured consumer loans. Our portfolios are further benefited by our loan mix. We foresee the peak in cost of risk in the third quarter.

有;不過，也有一些積極的一面。首先，我們的貸款組合在本季度的增長（不包括比索的急劇評估）升至 1.2%，這與 GDP 增長相比是有利的。其次，儘管本季度信貸質量持續惡化，尤其是消費貸款組合，但在過去兩個月中，無擔保消費貸款的 PDL 形成已開始趨於穩定。我們的貸款組合進一步使我們的投資組合受益。我們預計第三季度風險成本將達到峰值。

Third, if our views are correct, the cost of funds will begin to subside after the third quarter once the government starts to execute budgets and the Central Bank starts cutting rates.

第三，如果我們的觀點是正確的，那麼一旦政府開始執行預算、央行開始降息，第三季度之後資金成本就會開始下降。

Fourth, during the quarter, we saw a positive performance of NIM on loans from our banking operations as it reverted to the level of last year's last quarter. Furthermore, for the first time in 10 quarters, we saw a slight increase in NIM on retail loans as old portfolios come due and new ones are booked at current higher rates. We foresee that our total banking NIM will increase during the last quarter of this year. Fifth, our banks continue to deploy cost control initiatives that enabled OpEx to remain materially flat quarter-over-quarter.

第四，在本季度，我們看到銀行業務貸款的淨息差表現良好，恢復到了去年最後一個季度的水平。此外，我們看到零售貸款的淨息差 (NIM) 十個季度以來首次略有增加，因為舊的投資組合即將到期，而新的投資組合則以當前較高的利率入賬。我們預計今年最後一個季度我們的銀行業淨息差總額將會增加。第五，我們的銀行繼續部署成本控制舉措，使運營支出環比保持基本持平。

And finally, our pension fund administrator had a strong quarter as commissions and contributions evolved favorably, and stabilization reserves posted returns in excess of 10%. Going forward, Porvenir could benefit from improving asset valuations in a falling interest rate environment.

最後，我們的養老基金管理機構的季度業績表現強勁，佣金和繳款發展良好，穩定儲備金的回報率超過 10%。展望未來，波韋尼爾可能會在利率下降的環境下受益於資產估值的改善。

I thank you for your attention. And now I'll pass on the presentation to Diego, who will explain in detail our business results and provide guidance for the remainder of 2023.

我感謝您的關注。現在我將把演示轉交給迭戈，他將詳細解釋我們的業務成果並為 2023 年剩餘時間提供指導。

Thank you, Luis Carlos. Beginning on Page 6, assets decreased 0.3% during the quarter and grew 7.9% over the year. During the quarter, our mix slightly increase in net loans and increasing fixed income investments.

謝謝你，路易斯·卡洛斯。從第 6 頁開始，本季度資產減少 0.3%，全年增長 7.9%。本季度，我們的淨貸款和固定收益投資略有增加。

Moving to Page 7, represent the evolution of our loans. Gross loans contracted 0.1% during the quarter and grew 10.7% year-on-year. Peso-denominated loans increased 1.2% during the quarter and 12.1% over the year. The 10.1% quarterly appreciation of the Colombian peso led to an 8.5% decrease in the balance of our dollar-denominated loans, which grew 1.8% in dollar terms. 12-month depreciation of the Colombian peso was 0.6% and had no material effect on dollar-denominated loans growth in peso terms.

轉到第 7 頁，代表我們貸款的演變。本季度總貸款收縮 0.1%，同比增長 10.7%。以比索計價的貸款本季度增長 1.2%，全年增長 12.1%。哥倫比亞比索季度升值 10.1%，導致我們以美元計價的貸款餘額減少 8.5%，而以美元計價的貸款餘額增長 1.8%。哥倫比亞比索 12 個月貶值 0.6%，對以比索計算的美元貸款增長沒有重大影響。

Quarterly growth was led by a recovery in demand for commercial loans. On the other hand, high interest rates, slow economic activity and a lower macro outlook drove us after performance of retail loans. Commercial loan growth reached 0.2% over the quarter and 10.8% over the 12 months. Consumer loans contracted 0.3% over the quarter and grew 10.2% year-on-year.

商業貸款需求復蘇帶動了季度增長。另一方面，高利率、緩慢的經濟活動和較低的宏觀前景驅使我們關注零售貸款的表現。商業貸款本季度增長 0.2%，過去 12 個月增長 10.8%。消費貸款本季度收縮 0.3%，同比增長 10.2%。

Payroll loans continue to be our main consumer lending product accounting for 54.7% of the total, followed by personal loans and credit cards that account for 23.8% and 12.3% of our consumer portfolio respectively. Other loans represent 8.8% of our consumer book. Payroll loans fell 1.6% over the quarter and grew 2.5% over 12 months. Personal loans increased 2.2% quarter-on-quarter and 27.8% year-on-year. Credit cards grew 3% quarter-on-quarter and other loans contracted 2.6%. Other loans have been affected by an increase in car sales. Year-on-year credit card and auto loans have increased 18% and 10.5%, respectively.

工資貸款仍然是我們的主要消費貸款產品，佔總消費貸款的 54.7%，其次是個人貸款和信用卡，分別占我們消費貸款組合的 23.8% 和 12.3%。其他貸款占我們消費賬簿的 8.8%。工資貸款本季度下降 1.6%，12 個月內增長 2.5%。個人貸款環比增長2.2%，同比增長27.8%。信用卡季度環比增長 3%，其他貸款收縮 2.6%。其他貸款也受到汽車銷量增長的影響。信用卡和汽車貸款同比分別增長18%和10.5%。

Finally, mortgage has contracted 1.5% over the quarter and increased 11.8% year-on-year. We expect loan growth to remain soft across products and segments in line with the Central Bank's policy and software, local and global economic outlook.

最後，抵押貸款本季度收縮 1.5%，同比增長 11.8%。我們預計，根據央行的政策和軟件、本地和全球經濟前景，各產品和細分市場的貸款增長將保持疲軟。

On Pages 8 and 9, we present several loan portfolio quality ratios. The quality of our loan portfolios measured by stages improved a Stage 2 loan growth to Stage 3 and were ultimately charged up, although still high PDL formation and a 30-day horizon decelerated during the quarter.

在第 8 頁和第 9 頁，我們介紹了幾種貸款組合質量比率。我們按階段衡量的貸款組合的質量將第二階段的貸款增長提高到了第三階段，並最終被收取了費用，儘管本季度 PDL 形成仍然很高且 30 天期限有所放緩。

Regarding delinquencies, 30-day PDL increased to 5.1%, a 23 basis point deterioration over 3 months and 71 basis points over 12 months. 90-day PDLs were 3.6%, a 12 basis point deterioration in the 3 months and a 24 basis point deterioration over 12 months. PDL formation reflects an improvement in the 30-day horizon and the go forward to 90 days of a portion of loans that became delinquent last quarter.

就拖欠率而言，30 天 PDL 上升至 5.1%，3 個月內惡化了 23 個基點，12 個月內惡化了 71 個基點。 90 天 PDL 為 3.6%，3 個月內惡化了 12 個基點，12 個月內惡化了 24 個基點。 PDL 的形成反映了 30 天期限的改善以及上季度拖欠的部分貸款的期限延長至 90 天。

Regarding 30-day PDL formation, the improvement was driven by a decrease in commercial PDLs and a slight increase in consumer PDLs. Cost of risk, net of recoveries was 2.2%, up from 1.7% a quarter earlier and 1.4% in second quarter 2022. This was mainly driven by personal loans and credit cards. Our loan mix or weighted in payable lending and underweighted in personal loans and credit cards has been protected during this credit cycle. However, even though milder than our peers, we expect pressures on cost of risk to continue into third quarter as consumer PDLs roll forward and require further impairment charges.

關於 30 天 PDL 的形成，這一改善是由商業 PDL 的減少和消費者 PDL 的小幅增加推動的。扣除回收後的風險成本為 2.2%，高於上一季度的 1.7% 和 2022 年第二季度的 1.4%。這主要是由個人貸款和信用卡推動的。我們的貸款組合或在應付貸款中的權重以及在個人貸款和信用卡中的權重不足在本信貸週期中受到了保護。然而，儘管比同行溫和，但我們預計，隨著消費者 PDL 延期並需要進一步減值支出，風險成本壓力將持續到第三季度。

Finally, the ratio of charge-offs to average 90-day PDLs was 0.78x. On Page 10, we present funding and deposit evolution. Funding contracted 0.5% during the quarter and grew 8.1% over the year. Peso dominated funding increased 0.4% during the quarter and 8.7% over the year. Over the quarter, the balance of our dollar-denominated funding decreased 0.3% in dollar terms and 10.3% in peso terms. Deposits account for 73% of our funding, increasing 1.1% quarter-on-quarter and 12.6% year-on-year. Time deposits continue to be the largest component of our funding. Pressure on cost of funds used during the quarter following the steep effort to adjust for more demanding net stable funding ratio by the end of March. This allowed spreads for new time deposits relative to a sovereign debt to return close to historical levels. During the second quarter, our banks were able to reduce part of the expensive savings accounts that now have no contribution to net stable funding ratio.

最後，沖銷與平均 90 天 PDL 的比率為 0.78 倍。在第 10 頁，我們介紹了資金和存款的演變。本季度資金萎縮 0.5%，全年增長 8.1%。以比索為主的資金在本季度增長了 0.4%，在全年中增長了 8.7%。本季度，我們以美元計價的資金餘額以美元計算下降了 0.3%，以比索計算下降了 10.3%。存款占我們資金的73%，環比增長1.1%，同比增長12.6%。定期存款仍然是我們資金的最大組成部分。繼 3 月底前大力調整淨穩定融資比率要求更高後，本季度使用的資金成本面臨壓力。這使得新定期存款相對於主權債務的利差恢復到接近歷史水平。在第二季度，我們的銀行能夠減少部分昂貴的儲蓄賬戶，這些賬戶現在對淨穩定資金比率沒有貢獻。

However, pressure has built up again over the past few months as liquidity in the system tightened due to lower government budgeted execution and concentration of time deposits that were issued last year to adjust to the new net stable funding ratio coming due. To cope with the pressure derived from the new net stable funding ratio requirements while positioning for the expected interest rate reduction, our banks have increased the average maturity of time deposits, focusing on floating rates.

然而，過去幾個月，由於政府預算執行力度降低以及去年發行的定期存款集中以適應即將到期的新淨穩定資金比率，系統流動性收緊，壓力再次增大。為應對新的淨穩定資金比例要求帶來的壓力，同時定位降息預期，我行提高定期存款平均期限，以浮動利率為主。

At the end of June, 23% of our time deposits were due in less than 1 year and 35% had floating rates. Our deposit to net loan ratio increased to [101%.] On Page 11, we present the evolution of our total and attributable equity and the capital adequacy ratio of our banks. Both our total equity and attributable equity grew 1.8% over the quarter with favorable valuations of fixed income investments held at fair value through OCI contributing to the growth during the quarter.

截至6月底，我們的定期存款中有23%的期限在一年以內，35%的定期存款採用浮動利率。我們的存款與淨貸款比率上升至[101%]。在第11頁，我們介紹了我們銀行的總股本和權益以及資本充足率的演變。本季度我們的總股本和權益股本均增長 1.8%，通過 OCI 以公允價值持有的固定收益投資的良好估值為本季度的增長做出了貢獻。

All of our banks have an adequate Q1 capital. The total solvency ratio of our banks, except Banco Popular were slightly higher than 3 months earlier. Banco Popular, the most affected by the contraction, has seen pressure on its separate and consolidated total solvency ratio due to the net losses accumulated over recent quarters.

我們所有的銀行都有充足的第一季度資本。除大眾銀行外，我們銀行的總償付能力充足率略高於三個月前。受經濟收縮影響最嚴重的大眾銀行，由於最近幾個季度累計的淨虧損，其單獨和綜合總償付能力比率面臨壓力。

On Page 12, we present our yield on loans, cost of funds, spreads and NIM for our banking operation and for Grupo Aval. Colombia Central Bank increased its reference rate by 25 basis points to 13.25% in April, marking the end of the current cycle according to market consensus. As mentioned on our last call, and exceptional pressure on demand for time deposits to comply with more demanding net stable funding ratio requirements built up throughout the banking system up to March 2023.

在第 12 頁，我們介紹了我們的銀行業務和 Grupo Aval 的貸款收益率、資金成本、利差和淨息差。哥倫比亞央行4月份將參考利率上調25個基點至13.25%，根據市場共識，標誌著本週期的結束。正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的，截至 2023 年 3 月，整個銀行系統建立了更嚴格的淨穩定資金比率要求，定期存款需求面臨巨大壓力。

This pressure raised the spread between the time deposits and the Colombian sovereign debt, reaching close to 450 basis points above historical levels. Once banks comply with the new net stable ratio requirements, this level receded to 60 basis points by the beginning of April. This allows the NIM on loans for our banking operation to improve in second quarter 2023, the first time in more than a year. In addition, the positive increase of the Central Bank intervention rate allowed the repricing of loans to reduce the gap with the repricing of IVR-based funding. As a result, our loans increased 64 basis points during the quarter, while our cost of funds increased 16 basis points. NIM on commercial loans of our banking segment increased 60 basis points over the quarter. Our NIM on retail loans of our banking segment expanded 21 basis points, the first increase in more than 10 quarters.

這一壓力導致定期存款與哥倫比亞主權債務之間的利差擴大，比歷史水平高出近 450 個基點。一旦銀行遵守新的淨穩定比率要求，這一水平到 4 月初就會回落至 60 個基點。這使得我們銀行業務的貸款淨息差在 2023 年第二季度有所改善，這是一年多以來的首次。此外，央行干預率的積極提高使得貸款重新定價能夠縮小與基於IVR的融資重新定價之間的差距。因此，本季度我們的貸款增加了 64 個基點，而資金成本增加了 16 個基點。我們銀行部門商業貸款的淨息差本季度增加了 60 個基點。我們銀行業零售貸款的淨息差擴大了 21 個基點，這是十多個季度以來的首次增長。

However, the liquidity in the system tightened again, renewing pressure on cost of funds and spreads of time deposits to sovereign debt. This spread has reached 370 basis points by the end of June and 520 basis points as of last week. We expect this portion to reduce third quarter results. We expect that the releasing cost of funds could come by mid-October, as the concentration of time deposit maturities is over, the government budget execution increases, allowing these funds to flow into the economy and the Central Bank intervention rate starts to fall.

然而，系統內流動性再次收緊，資金成本和定期存款與主權債務利差再次面臨壓力。截至6月底，這一利差已達到370個基點，截至上週已達到520個基點。我們預計這部分將減少第三季度的業績。我們預計，隨著定期存款到期集中結束、政府預算執行力度加大，資金流入經濟，央行干預率開始下降，資金成本可能在10月中旬出現釋放。

This quarter's NIM of the banking operation remained flat as NIM on investments of our banking segment contracted to 0.8% following a milder downward movement in the yield curve relative to a quarter earlier.

本季度銀行業務的淨息差保持持平，因為在收益率曲線相對於上一季度略有下降之後，我們銀行部門的投資淨息差收縮至 0.8%。

Moving to Page 13, we present net fees and other income. Gross fee income increased 2.2% quarter-on-quarter to 21.5% year-on-year. Net fee income increased 4.9% quarter-on-quarter and 26.8% year-on-year. Pension fees increased over the quarter due to higher mandatory pension fund management fees, driven by wage increases and a resilient labor market. Trust fees decreased over the quarter, explained by lower performance-based fees. Income from the nonfinancial sector, specifically infrastructure was negatively impacted by the $60.6 million or COP 253 billion negative impact of the resolution agreement with the DOJ and the SEC.

轉到第 13 頁，我們列出了淨費用和其他收入。總服務費收入環比增長2.2%，同比增長21.5%。淨手續費收入環比增長4.9%，同比增長26.8%。由於工資上漲和勞動力市場有彈性，強制性養老基金管理費上漲，養老金費用在本季度有所增加。本季度信託費用有所下降，原因是績效費用較低。與 DOJ 和 SEC 達成的決議協議產生了 6,060 萬美元（即 2,530 億哥倫比亞比索）的負面影響，對非金融部門（特別是基礎設施）的收入產生了負面影響。

Given its characteristic, this was considered as a subsequent event that was accounted for as part of our second quarter results. In addition, results for infrastructure fell due to: first, a lower interest income on financial assets due to a lower inflation; second, the negative impact of FX appreciation and concession arrangement assets with dollar exposure, which was hedged with a positive effect in other income from FX and derivatives; and third, a slower construction progress in (inaudible) due to unfavorable weather conditions. At the bottom of the page, quarter-on-quarter valuation of other operating income is mainly explained by higher income from derivatives and FX gains related with our nonfinancial sector hedging the negative impact of FX appreciation of our concession arrangement assets.

鑑於其特點，這被視為後續事件，併計入我們第二季度業績的一部分。此外，基礎設施業績下降的原因包括：一是通貨膨脹率下降導致金融資產利息收入下降；其次，外匯升值和具有美元敞口的優惠安排資產的負面影響，通過外彙和衍生品的其他收入的正面影響進行對沖；第三，由於不利的天氣條件，（聽不清）施工進度較慢。在頁面底部，其他營業收入的季度環比估值主要是由於與我們的非金融部門對沖我們的特許權安排資產的外匯升值的負面影響相關的衍生品和外匯收益的增加所致。

In addition, the first quarter incorporates the positive seasonal effect of dividends received by our subsidiaries. On Page 14, we present some efficiency ratios on a comparable basis. Cost to assets of 2.8% remained flat quarter-on-quarter, incorporating the results of our group-wide cost containment efforts. Cost to income increased to 53.7% over the quarter, close to half of quarterly increase is explained by the impact of the resolutions with the U.S. agencies. Quarterly expenses increased 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 19.1% year-on-year. Administrative expenses grew 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 24.5% year-on-year. Administrative expenses growth has been pressured by a 55% year-on-year increase in operating taxes, particularly the industry and commerce tax and by increases in the deposit insurance costs associated with deposit growth.

此外，第一季度還考慮了我們子公司收到的股息的積極季節性影響。在第 14 頁，我們提供了一些可比較的效率比率。考慮到我們整個集團成本控制工作的結果，資產成本為 2.8%，與上一季度持平。本季度收入成本增加至 53.7%，接近季度增長的一半是由於美國機構決議的影響。季度費用環比增長0.6%，同比增長19.1%。管理費用環比增長0.1%，同比增長24.5%。管理費用增長受到營業稅（特別是工商稅）同比增長55%以及與存款增長相關的存款保險成本增加的壓力。

This explained 12.4 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points of the administrative expense year-on-year growth. In addition, further pressure on administrative expenses growth came from the 16% minimum wage increase, by 13.1% 2022 inflation and the impact on our U.S.-denominated expenses of 12.9% year-on-year average depreciation of the Colombian peso for the quarter.

這說明管理費用同比增長12.4個百分點和2.6個百分點。此外，行政費用增長的進一步壓力來自最低工資增長 16%、2022 年通貨膨脹 13.1%，以及本季度哥倫比亞比索平均貶值 12.9% 對我們以美元計價的費用的影響。

Personnel expenses increased 16.2% year-on-year, in line with the 16% increase in minimum wage in Colombia. Over the quarter, personnel expenses grew 1.1%.

人員費用同比增長16.2%，與哥倫比亞最低工資上漲16%一致。本季度，人員費用增長 1.1%。

Finally, on Page 15, we present our net income and profitability ratios as reported. Attributable net income for the quarter was COP 166 billion or COP 7 per share. The negative effect on our attributable net income of the resolutions with the U.S. agencies was COP 102.5 billion or COP 4.3 per share. Our return on average assets and return on average equity for the quarter were 0.6% and 4.1%, respectively. This incorporates the negative effect of the resolutions of the U.S. agencies of [0.3] percentage points on our return on average assets and up 2.5 percentage points on a return on average equity.

最後，在第 15 頁，我們展示了報告中的淨利潤和盈利比率。本季度歸屬淨利潤為 1,660 億比索或每股 7 比索。與美國機構的決議對我們歸屬淨利潤的負面影響為 1,025 億比索或每股 4.3 比索。本季度我們的平均資產回報率和平均股本回報率分別為 0.6% 和 4.1%。這包括美國機構決議對我們平均資產回報率 [0.3] 個百分點的負面影響，以及對平均股本回報率上升 2.5 個百分點的負面影響。

I will now summarize our general guidance for 2023. We expect loan growth to be in the 4% to 5% range with commercial loans growing in the 5% to 6% range and retail loans growing in the 3% to 4% range. We expect our cost of risk net of recoveries to be in the 2% area. We expect full year NIM of our banking operation to remain in the 4.3% area with NIM on loans in the 5% area. We expect full year consolidated NIM to be in the 3.5% area with consolidated NIM on loans in the 4% area. This incorporates the interest expenses of our nonfinancial activity.

現在我將總結我們對2023 年的總體指導。我們預計貸款增長將在4% 至5% 範圍內，其中商業貸款增長在5% 至6% 範圍內，零售貸款增長在3% 至4% 範圍內。我們預計扣除回收費用後的風險成本將在 2% 左右。我們預計銀行業務全年淨息差將保持在 4.3% 的水平，貸款淨息差則在 5% 的水平。我們預計全年綜合淨息差將在 3.5% 範圍內，貸款綜合淨息差將在 4% 範圍內。這包括我們非金融活動的利息支出。

We expect our cost to assets to be in the 2.8% area. We expect our income from the nonfinancial sector to be 60% of that for 2022. We expect our fee income ratio to be in the 20% to 25% range, with a 19% for our banking segment. Finally, we expect our full year reported return on average equity to be in the 6% to 6.5% range or 6.5% to 7%, excluding the negative effect of the resolution agreements with the U.S. agencies. We are now open for questions and answers.

我們預計資產成本將在 2.8% 左右。我們預計到 2022 年，我們來自非金融部門的收入將達到 60%。我們預計我們的費用收入比率將在 20% 至 25% 範圍內，其中銀行部門為 19%。最後，我們預計全年報告的平均股本回報率將在 6% 至 6.5% 或 6.5% 至 7% 之間，不包括與美國機構達成的決議協議的負面影響。我們現在開放提問和解答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question comes from the line of Nicolas Riva with Bank of America.

你的第一個問題來自美國銀行尼古拉斯·里瓦 (Nicolas Riva) 的電話。

My first question is on the investigation related to Ruta del Sol. So of course, you did reach the settlement with the U.S. authorities with the SEC, the Department of Justice to pay in total $60 million, that investigation appears to be closed. Now separately, there were comments this week from [Petro] saying that he does want the Colombian authorities to assess any fines that potentially should be paid to the Colombian authorities as well related to this case. My question there is how should we assess the likelihood of a having to pay any fines related to this case in Colombia and also potential size of these fines.

我的第一個問題是關於與Ruta del Sol有關的調查。當然，你確實與美國當局與 SEC、司法部達成了和解，支付總計 6000 萬美元，調查似乎已經結束。另外，本週 [Petro] 發表評論稱，他確實希望哥倫比亞當局評估可能應向哥倫比亞當局支付的與此案相關的任何罰款。我的問題是，我們應該如何評估在哥倫比亞必須支付與此案相關的任何罰款的可能性以及這些罰款的潛在金額。

And then my second question on a different topic, and this is not new, but this loan that you have provided for your controlling shareholder or $300 million. I was looking at the stand-alone balance sheet of the holding company, and I see loans to related parties for about $500 million, which is a bit more than 10% of the equity standalone of the holding company. My question there is, there's a policy really in terms of providing loans to related parties. And the driver for my question really is, there has been some considerations raised by investors, especially by credit investors relating to this loan to these -- you're controlling shareholders or the investment vehicle controlled by -- owned by our controlling shareholders. So if you have any comments on this, that would be helpful.

然後我的第二個問題是另一個主題，這不是新問題，而是您為控股股東提供的這筆貸款或 3 億美元。我查看了控股公司的獨立資產負債表，發現向關聯方提供的貸款約為 5 億美元，略高於控股公司獨立股本的 10%。我的問題是，在向關聯方提供貸款方面確實有一項政策。我的問題的驅動因素確實是，投資者，特別是信貸投資者提出了一些考慮因素，這些考慮因素與我們控股股東所擁有的這些貸款有關——你們是控股股東或控制的投資工具。因此，如果您對此有任何意見，將會有所幫助。

I'll take your first question regarding -- as you said, the matters in the United States have been settled. And in Colombia, that has happened as well. We want to an arbitrage tribunal and it had its own decision and all that was spending was (inaudible) appeal. And with that, the bulk of anything pending in Colombia will be and has been resolved. So if you ask me what we expect, we expect nothing more.

我回答你的第一個問題，正如你所說，美國的事情已經解決了。在哥倫比亞，這種情況也發生了。我們想要一個套利法庭，它有自己的決定，所有支出都是（聽不清）上訴。至此，哥倫比亞懸而未決的大部分問題都將得到解決。因此，如果你問我我們期望什麼，我們不會期望更多。

Yes, if I can just follow up on that. Can you remind us if you had (inaudible) and/or Corficolombiana had paid then any fines related to this investigation in Colombia in the past on the size...

是的，如果我能跟進的話。您能否提醒我們，您是否（聽不清）和/或 Corficolombiana 過去曾支付過與哥倫比亞此次調查相關的任何罰款……

Yes. Yes. As we announced some meetings ago, we paid a superintendence of industry and commerce, not Aval, Aval was not brought up on any charges, but Corficol was and Corficolombiana paid to the superintendency of industry and commerce, about COP 84 billion. And then the arbitrage tribunal and its ruling quantified the amount that had to be paid back to that Concesionaria of about -- I can't say the numbers exactly because I can -- I do not remember that, but it was maybe about COP 2 trillion but then it quantified damages and other was left was about COP 200 billion, and those COP 200 billion are being used to liquidate the company. So that's been settled as well. So yes, to answer your question that -- and if you read the Consejo de Estado, its ruling, you will see that even the Consejo de Estado has determined that it's far as fines associated with the contract, that has been taken care of by its natural judge, if it's call it (inaudible) calls as the natural judge has already ruled and that natural judge of the contract is arbitrage tribunal. So that's been settled as well.

是的。是的。正如我們之前在一些會議上宣布的那樣，我們向工商監管局支付了費用，而不是 Aval，Aval 沒有受到任何指控，但 Corficol 和 Corficolombiana 向工商監管局支付了約 840 億哥倫比亞比索。然後套利法庭及其裁決量化了必須償還給 Concesionaria 的金額，大約為——我不能準確地說出這些數字，因為我可以——我不記得了，但這可能與第二屆締約方會議有關萬億比索，但隨後量化了損失，剩下的大約是2000 億比索，而這2000 億比索正用於清算公司。所以這件事也已經解決了。所以，是的，要回答你的問題，如果你閱讀了國家委員會的裁決，你會發現，即使是國家委員會也已確定，與合同相關的罰款已由國家委員會處理。它的自然法官，如果它被稱為（聽不清），因為自然法官已經做出了裁決，並且合同的自然法官是套利法庭。所以這件事也已經解決了。

And regarding your second question on loans to related parties, there's a few things to mention. Number one, to do that, the company went through not only its internal consult process, but also through controls by regulation. In addition, those bonds were placed at a rate that was above what the capacity of generating revenue for the company was at that point, and it was as strongly supported by guarantees.

關於第二個問題，關於關聯方貸款的問題，有幾點需要提及。首先，為了做到這一點，該公司不僅經歷了內部諮詢流程，還通過了監管控制。此外，這些債券的發行利率高於公司當時的創收能力，並且得到了擔保的大力支持。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your next question will come from the line of Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的尤里·費爾南德斯 (Yuri Fernandes)。

I had a question regarding dividends. I guess you already announced the dividend this year, I think, April. So the next quarter is already now, but given you are having this 6%, 6.5% ROE guidance, my question is regarding 2023. So 2024 payout, right? What should we expect? Because in the previous years, you have been paying 40%, 45% of previous year's payout. But given that we will be lower and given you have debt at the family, the holding, I'm not sure if you need to have like a higher payout to continue to serve this debt in a moment that ROE are very -- are lower, right, because of all the issues in old Colombian rates, on asset quality. So my question is, what should we expect on the dividend front and thinking also about capital?

我有一個關於股息的問題。我想你已經宣布了今年的股息，我想是四月份。所以現在已經是下個季度了，但考慮到你們有 6%、6.5% 的 ROE 指導，我的問題是關於 2023 年的。所以 2024 年的支出，對嗎？我們應該期待什麼？因為往年你已經交了上一年的40%、45%的錢。但考慮到我們的利率會更低，而且考慮到你在家族、控股公司有債務，我不確定你是否需要更高的支出才能在​​股本回報率非常低的時刻繼續償還這筆債務。 ，對，因為哥倫比亞舊利率和資產質量存在所有問題。所以我的問題是，我們在股息方面應該期待什麼，並考慮資本？

Thanks, two things. Number one, we can speculate about that because it's a shareholder decision. However, what we have done in the past has been based on cash into Aval, based on -- cash equivalent to cash out based on how much dividends our banks can pay. Obviously, as you mentioned, we have to take into consideration the capacity of which one of the banks to pay dividends, growth expectations and also their expected solvency moving forward. So I know I haven't been specific on what we were asking, what those have been the guidance we've used in the past to make sure that the company is balanced in cash in, cash out.

謝謝，有兩件事。第一，我們可以對此進行推測，因為這是股東的決定。然而，我們過去所做的是以現金存入 Aval 為基礎，現金等價於根據我們的銀行可以支付多少股息而取出現金。顯然，正如您所提到的，我們必須考慮哪一家銀行支付股息的能力、增長預期以及未來的預期償付能力。所以我知道我沒有具體說明我們所要求的內容，這些是我們過去用來確保公司現金進出平衡的指導方針。

And Diego, can you had something similar to what you did last year? I guess there was a year that we didn't pay dividend and just issued shares, like would that be something for you to consider also?

迭戈，你能做一些與去年類似的事情嗎？我想有一年我們沒有支付股息，只是發行了股票，這也是你應該考慮的事情嗎？

I think we are ahead of time to have that discussion. Each decision is taken on annual basis based and juncture. The reason why that happened in the past had to do is the PHI spinoff. So it had special considerations.

我認為我們提前進行了討論。每個決定都是根據年度和具體時間做出的。過去發生這種情況的原因與 PHI 剝離有關。所以它有特殊的考慮。

Perfect. And if I may, a second one on operating trends here on asset quality, like you have a guidance on cost of risk, right, the 2% you just mentioned. What is the curve for that? Like should we expect the 3Q to be better on asset quality than this quarter? Because my concern here is that inflation is still very high in Colombia. So my concern is that maybe cost of risk is just higher, right, the economy is still slowing down, although growing a little bit. So what is your level of confidence that cost of risk could be 2% and not higher in the coming quarters?

完美的。如果可以的話，我想講第二個關於資產質量運營趨勢的問題，就像您對風險成本有指導一樣，對吧，就是您剛才提到的 2%。其曲線是什麼？比如我們是否應該預期第三季度的資產質量會比本季度更好？因為我擔心哥倫比亞的通貨膨脹率仍然很高。所以我擔心的是，也許風險成本只是更高，對吧，經濟仍在放緩，儘管有所增長。那麼，您對未來幾個季度風險成本可能達到 2% 並且不會更高的信心程度如何？

Let me walk you through the logic of our guidance. Basically, the way we think about it is we look into a PDL formation and a 30-day horizon. We know that there is a percentage of that, that needs to roll into 90-day PDL formation, and that's precisely the point where we get the highest cost of risk. There's a few things even though it is early to call home about that, but our positive signs and a test, end of second quarter, beginning of fourth quarter, we've seen a change in the trend of PDL formation, particularly our personal installment loans and credit cards that have been accountable for most of the cost of risk.

讓我向您介紹我們指導的邏輯。基本上，我們的思考方式是研究 PDL 形態和 30 天的範圍。我們知道其中有一部分需要形成 90 天的 PDL，而這正是我們風險成本最高的點。有一些事情，儘管現在回家還為時過早，但我們的積極跡象和測試，第二季度末，第四季度初，我們看到了 PDL 形成趨勢的變化，特別是我們的個人分期付款貸款和信用卡承擔了大部分風險成本。

That looking at our own numbers, so just by -- due to math, if you see PDL formation falling in that horizon, you should expect 3 months out to see PDL 90-day PDL formation also coming down, therefore, cost of is coming down. On the other hand, there's a series of macro factors that can give us some positive view.

看看我們自己的數據，根據數學計算，如果您看到 PDL 形成在該範圍內下降，您應該預計 3 個月後會看到 PDL 90 天 PDL 形成也下降，因此，成本即將到來向下。另一方面，一系列宏觀因素可以給我們帶來一些積極的看法。

And it is, number one, we see unemployment holding much better than what we expected initially on the positive note. We also see that the end of the cycle might be soon because we've seen the Central Bank flattening down. We would expect to see changes in monetary policy closer to the end of this year.

第一，我們看到失業率的狀況比我們最初預期的積極情況要好得多。我們還看到，週期可能很快就會結束，因為我們已經看到央行趨於平緩。我們預計貨幣政策將在今年年底前發生變化。

And then government execution of budget should help GDP perform better. If you might -- I can't give you numbers, but qualitatively during this first half, government execution of budget has been a lag, but there's a decisive action from the President that points into government execution of budgets increasing during the second half. So those are some elements that give us some comfort on an improvement in the cycle. And as interest rates are able to come down due to monetary policy and also the distortions I mentioned when we went through the presentation, that should give some support to an improvement in cost of risk. Very long explanation, but just to let me know how we think about it.

那麼政府執行預算應該有助於GDP表現更好。如果你可以的話——我無法給你數字，但從質量上來說，在上半年，政府預算執行情況一直滯後，但總統採取了果斷行動，表明政府預算執行情況在下半年有所增加。這些因素讓我們對周期的改善感到一些安慰。由於貨幣政策以及我在演示時提到的扭曲，利率能夠下降，這應該會為風險成本的改善提供一些支持。解釋很長，但只是為了讓我知道我們是如何看待它的。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題是摩根大通尤里·費爾南德斯 (Yuri Fernandes) 的後續提問。

Diego, it's me again. Just on this topic on margins and lower rates. Can you just refresh the sensitivity for lower rates for Grupo Aval, like how much of deep cuts help you on margins?

迭戈，又是我。就關於利潤率和較低利率的話題。您能否刷新一下 Grupo Aval 較低利率的敏感性，例如大幅削減對您的利潤有多少幫助？

Yuri, that has become a real problem in Colombia because we think that cost of funds detached in a very relevant manner with Central Bank rate since we had changes in the net stable funding ratio. The sort of distortion that we saw first quarter was up to 400 basis points. And as of last week, we were at around 500 basis points. We do expect that this portion to fade away around October. And that has become actually a stronger driving force than what the Central Bank rate looks like. So we do expect that marginal cost falling. You have to bear in mind that time deposits are close to 48% of our deposits. So it's very relevant what happens there, but that should be helping our margins in a very substantial way. So summarizing, we look forward to an adjustment back to a less distorted price of time deposits due to an improvement in the overall interest rate environment. And on the other hand, we also expect on top of that interest rate cuts by the end of this year.

尤里，這已成為哥倫比亞的一個真正問題，因為我們認為，自從我們淨穩定融資比率發生變化以來，資金成本與央行利率非常相關。我們第一季度看到的扭曲程度高達 400 個基點。截至上週，我們的利率約為 500 個基點。我們確實預計這部分會在 10 月份左右消失。這實際上已經成為比央行利率更強大的驅動力。因此，我們確實預計邊際成本會下降。您必須記住，定期存款接近我們存款的 48%。因此，那裡發生的事情非常相關，但這應該會極大地提高我們的利潤。綜上所述，我們期待由於整體利率環境的改善而調整定期存款價格至扭曲程度較小的水平。另一方面，我們還預計今年年底前還會降息。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutierrez, I turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。路易斯·卡洛斯·薩米恩托·古鐵雷斯先生，我將電話轉回給您。

Thank you so much, Regina, and thank you all for joining our call today. We expect to see better financial times coming in the last quarter. And hopefully, we'll return to the numbers that we're accustomed to see. Thank you so much, and hope to see you again next time.

非常感謝您，雷吉娜，也感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我們預計上個季度將會出現更好的財務狀況。希望我們能回到我們習慣看到的數字。非常感謝您，希望下次能再次見到您。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。